WorldWideScience

Sample records for ishm decision analysis

  1. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) and Autonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Fernando; Walker, Mark G.

    2018-01-01

    Systems capabilities on ISHM (Integrated System Health Management) and autonomy have traditionally been addressed separately. This means that ISHM functions, such as anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and comprehensive system awareness have not been considered traditionally in the context of autonomy functions such as planning, scheduling, and mission execution. One key reason is that although they address systems capabilities, both ISHM and autonomy have traditionally individually been approached as independent strategies and models for analysis. Additionally, to some degree, a unified paradigm for ISHM and autonomy has been difficult to implement due to limitations of hardware and software. This paper explores a unified treatment of ISHM and autonomy in the context of distributed hierarchical autonomous operations.

  2. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) for Test Stand and J-2X Engine: Core Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Jorge F.; Schmalzel, John L.; Aguilar, Robert; Shwabacher, Mark; Morris, Jon

    2008-01-01

    ISHM capability enables a system to detect anomalies, determine causes and effects, predict future anomalies, and provides an integrated awareness of the health of the system to users (operators, customers, management, etc.). NASA Stennis Space Center, NASA Ames Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne have implemented a core ISHM capability that encompasses the A1 Test Stand and the J-2X Engine. The implementation incorporates all aspects of ISHM; from anomaly detection (e.g. leaks) to root-cause-analysis based on failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), to a user interface for an integrated visualization of the health of the system (Test Stand and Engine). The implementation provides a low functional capability level (FCL) in that it is populated with few algorithms and approaches for anomaly detection, and root-cause trees from a limited FMEA effort. However, it is a demonstration of a credible ISHM capability, and it is inherently designed for continuous and systematic augmentation of the capability. The ISHM capability is grounded on an integrating software environment used to create an ISHM model of the system. The ISHM model follows an object-oriented approach: includes all elements of the system (from schematics) and provides for compartmentalized storage of information associated with each element. For instance, a sensor object contains a transducer electronic data sheet (TEDS) with information that might be used by algorithms and approaches for anomaly detection, diagnostics, etc. Similarly, a component, such as a tank, contains a Component Electronic Data Sheet (CEDS). Each element also includes a Health Electronic Data Sheet (HEDS) that contains health-related information such as anomalies and health state. Some practical aspects of the implementation include: (1) near real-time data flow from the test stand data acquisition system through the ISHM model, for near real-time detection of anomalies and diagnostics, (2) insertion of the J-2X

  3. Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatesh, Meera; Kapadia, Ravi; Walker, Mark; Wilkins, Kim

    2013-01-01

    A framework of software components has been implemented to facilitate the development of ISHM systems according to a methodology based on Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). This framework is collectively referred to as the Toolkit and was developed using General Atomics' Health MAP (TM) technology. The toolkit is intended to provide assistance to software developers of mission-critical system health monitoring applications in the specification, implementation, configuration, and deployment of such applications. In addition to software tools designed to facilitate these objectives, the toolkit also provides direction to software developers in accordance with an ISHM specification and development methodology. The development tools are based on an RCM approach for the development of ISHM systems. This approach focuses on defining, detecting, and predicting the likelihood of system functional failures and their undesirable consequences.

  4. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM): Systematic Capability Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Fernando; Holland, Randy; Schmalzwel, John; Duncavage, Dan

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a credible approach for implementation of ISHM capability in any system. The requirements and processes to implement ISHM capability are unique in that a credible capability is initially implemented at a low level, and it evolves to achieve higher levels by incremental augmentation. In contrast, typical capabilities, such as thrust of an engine, are implemented once at full Functional Capability Level (FCL), which is not designed to change during the life of the product. The approach will describe core ingredients (e.g. technologies, architectures, etc.) and when and how ISHM capabilities may be implemented. A specific architecture/taxonomy/ontology will be described, as well as a prototype software environment that supports development of ISHM capability. This paper will address implementation of system-wide ISHM as a core capability, and ISHM for specific subsystems as expansions and evolution, but always focusing on achieving an integrated capability.

  5. Intelligent Sensors for Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmalzel, John L.

    2008-01-01

    IEEE 1451 Smart Sensors contribute to a number of ISHM goals including cost reduction achieved through: a) Improved configuration management (TEDS); and b) Plug-and-play re-configuration. Intelligent Sensors are adaptation of Smart Sensors to include ISHM algorithms; this offers further benefits: a) Sensor validation. b) Confidence assessment of measurement, and c) Distributed ISHM processing. Space-qualified intelligent sensors are possible a) Size, mass, power constraints. b) Bus structure/protocol.

  6. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  7. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Implementation in Rocket Engine Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Fernando; Morris, Jon; Turowski, Mark; Franzl, Richard; Walker, Mark; Kapadia, Ravi; Venkatesh, Meera

    2010-01-01

    A pilot operational ISHM capability has been implemented for the E-2 Rocket Engine Test Stand (RETS) and a Chemical Steam Generator (CSG) test article at NASA Stennis Space Center. The implementation currently includes an ISHM computer and a large display in the control room. The paper will address the overall approach, tools, and requirements. It will also address the infrastructure and architecture. Specific anomaly detection algorithms will be discussed regarding leak detection and diagnostics, valve validation, and sensor validation. It will also describe development and use of a Health Assessment Database System (HADS) as a repository for measurements, health, configuration, and knowledge related to a system with ISHM capability. It will conclude with a discussion of user interfaces, and a description of the operation of the ISHM system prior, during, and after testing.

  8. Monitoring System for Storm Readiness and Recovery of Test Facilities: Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Fernando; Morris, Jon; Turowski, Mark; Franzl, Richard; Walker, Mark; Kapadia, Ravi; Venkatesh, Meera; Schmalzel, John

    2010-01-01

    Severe weather events are likely occurrences on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It is important to rapidly diagnose and mitigate the effects of storms on Stennis Space Center's rocket engine test complex to avoid delays to critical test article programs, reduce costs, and maintain safety. An Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) approach and technologies are employed to integrate environmental (weather) monitoring, structural modeling, and the suite of available facility instrumentation to provide information for readiness before storms, rapid initial damage assessment to guide mitigation planning, and then support on-going assurance as repairs are effected and finally support recertification. The system is denominated Katrina Storm Monitoring System (KStorMS). Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) describes a comprehensive set of capabilities that provide insight into the behavior the health of a system. Knowing the status of a system allows decision makers to effectively plan and execute their mission. For example, early insight into component degradation and impending failures provides more time to develop work around strategies and more effectively plan for maintenance. Failures of system elements generally occur over time. Information extracted from sensor data, combined with system-wide knowledge bases and methods for information extraction and fusion, inference, and decision making, can be used to detect incipient failures. If failures do occur, it is critical to detect and isolate them, and suggest an appropriate course of action. ISHM enables determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system-of-systems or SoS (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, predict future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to control systems for safe and effective operation. ISHM capability is achieved by using a wide range of technologies that enable anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and advise for control: (1

  9. A Support Database System for Integrated System Health Management (ISHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmalzel, John; Figueroa, Jorge F.; Turowski, Mark; Morris, John

    2007-01-01

    The development, deployment, operation and maintenance of Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) applications require the storage and processing of tremendous amounts of low-level data. This data must be shared in a secure and cost-effective manner between developers, and processed within several heterogeneous architectures. Modern database technology allows this data to be organized efficiently, while ensuring the integrity and security of the data. The extensibility and interoperability of the current database technologies also allows for the creation of an associated support database system. A support database system provides additional capabilities by building applications on top of the database structure. These applications can then be used to support the various technologies in an ISHM architecture. This presentation and paper propose a detailed structure and application description for a support database system, called the Health Assessment Database System (HADS). The HADS provides a shared context for organizing and distributing data as well as a definition of the applications that provide the required data-driven support to ISHM. This approach provides another powerful tool for ISHM developers, while also enabling novel functionality. This functionality includes: automated firmware updating and deployment, algorithm development assistance and electronic datasheet generation. The architecture for the HADS has been developed as part of the ISHM toolset at Stennis Space Center for rocket engine testing. A detailed implementation has begun for the Methane Thruster Testbed Project (MTTP) in order to assist in developing health assessment and anomaly detection algorithms for ISHM. The structure of this implementation is shown in Figure 1. The database structure consists of three primary components: the system hierarchy model, the historical data archive and the firmware codebase. The system hierarchy model replicates the physical relationships between

  10. Data Mining for ISHM of Liquid Rocket Propulsion Status Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Ashok; Schwabacher, Mark; Oza, Nijunj; Martin, Rodney; Watson, Richard; Matthews, Bryan

    2006-01-01

    This document consists of presentation slides that review the current status of data mining to support the work with the Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) for the systems associated with Liquid Rocket Propulsion. The aim of this project is to have test stand data from Rocketdyne to design algorithms that will aid in the early detection of impending failures during operation. These methods will be extended and improved for future platforms (i.e., CEV/CLV).

  11. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Technology Demonstration Project Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan; Iverson, David; Pisanich, Greg; Toberman, Mike; Hicks, Ken

    2006-01-01

    Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) is an essential capability that will be required to enable upcoming explorations mission systems such as the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV), as well as NASA aeronautics missions. However, the lack of flight experience and available test platforms have held back the infusion by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of ISHM technologies into future space and aeronautical missions. To address this problem, a pioneer project was conceived to use a high-performance aircraft as a low-cost proxy to develop, mature, and verify the effectiveness of candidate ISHM technologies. Given the similarities between spacecraft and aircraft, an F/A-18 currently stationed at Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) was chosen as a suitable host platform for the test bed. This report describes how the test bed was conceived, how the technologies were integrated on to the aircraft, and how these technologies were matured during the project. It also describes the lessons learned during the project and a forward path for continued work.

  12. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  13. Integrating ISHM with Flight Avionics Architectures for Cyber-Physical Space Systems, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Substantial progress has been made by NASA in integrating flight avionics and ISHM with well-defined caution and warning system, however, the scope of ACAW alerting...

  14. Decision Analysis Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  15. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  16. Approximate reasoning in decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, M M; Sanchez, E

    1982-01-01

    The volume aims to incorporate the recent advances in both theory and applications. It contains 44 articles by 74 contributors from 17 different countries. The topics considered include: membership functions; composite fuzzy relations; fuzzy logic and inference; classifications and similarity measures; expert systems and medical diagnosis; psychological measurements and human behaviour; approximate reasoning and decision analysis; and fuzzy clustering algorithms.

  17. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  18. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  19. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  20. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  1. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusted, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  2. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

  3. Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Fernando; Morris, Jon; Turowski, Mark; Wang, Ray

    2011-01-01

    Intelligent sensor technology and systems are increasingly becoming attractive means to serve as frameworks for intelligent rocket test facilities with embedded intelligent sensor elements, distributed data acquisition elements, and onboard data acquisition elements. Networked intelligent processors enable users and systems integrators to automatically configure their measurement automation systems for analog sensors. NASA and leading sensor vendors are working together to apply the IEEE 1451 standard for adding plug-and-play capabilities for wireless analog transducers through the use of a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) in order to simplify sensor setup, use, and maintenance, to automatically obtain calibration data, and to eliminate manual data entry and error. A TEDS contains the critical information needed by an instrument or measurement system to identify, characterize, interface, and properly use the signal from an analog sensor. A TEDS is deployed for a sensor in one of two ways. First, the TEDS can reside in embedded, nonvolatile memory (typically flash memory) within the intelligent processor. Second, a virtual TEDS can exist as a separate file, downloadable from the Internet. This concept of virtual TEDS extends the benefits of the standardized TEDS to legacy sensors and applications where the embedded memory is not available. An HTML-based user interface provides a visual tool to interface with those distributed sensors that a TEDS is associated with, to automate the sensor management process. Implementing and deploying the IEEE 1451.1-based Network-Capable Application Process (NCAP) can achieve support for intelligent process in Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) for the purpose of monitoring, detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, mitigation to maintain operability, and integrated awareness of system health by the operator. It can also support local data collection and storage. This

  4. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

    2017-06-13

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

  5. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the

  6. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  7. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....

  8. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Val, Dimitri V.; Stewart, Mark G.

    2005-01-01

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  9. Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Kekytė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  11. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  12. Decision Vulnerability Analysis (DVA) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    31 14 Graphical Representation of the Summary Judgments of the Effectiveness, Vulnerability, and Understanding of the Subsystems’ as Judged by...posed several challenges. Numerous organizational typologies have been suggested over the years ( Robbins , 1994), and these typologies are often based...structure and functioning from a typology perspective ( Robbins , 1994), excerpts from a task analysis that described how the analysts currently performed

  13. Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

    2002-01-01

    Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

  14. Optimal Design of Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) Systems for improving safety in NASA's Exploration Vehicles: A Two-Level Multidisciplinary Design Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehr, Ali Farhang; Tumer, Irem; Barszcz, Eric

    2005-01-01

    Integrated Vehicle Health Management (ISHM) systems are used to detect, assess, and isolate functional failures in order to improve safety of space systems such as Orbital Space Planes (OSPs). An ISHM system, as a whole, consists of several subsystems that monitor different components of an OSP including: Spacecraft, Launch Vehicle, Ground Control, and the International Space Station. In this research, therefore, we propose a new methodology to design and optimize ISHM as a distributed system with multiple disciplines (that correspond to different subsystems of OSP safety). A paramount amount of interest has been given in the literature to the multidisciplinary design optimization of problems with such architecture (as will be reviewed in the full paper).

  15. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  16. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  17. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  18. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Do

    2006-01-01

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  19. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

  20. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

  1. Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-11-01

    TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering

  2. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

  3. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  4. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  5. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  6. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  7. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takao, Hidemasa; Nojo, Takeshi; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  8. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian STANCU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

  10. Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Bayesian Decision Theory and Utilitarian Ethics ,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 68: 223-228 (May 1978). Hartsough, Bruce R. “A...1983). Morrell, Darryl and Eric Driver. “ Bayesian Network Implementation of Levi’s Epistemic Utility Decision Theory ,” International Journal Of...elicitation efficiency for the decision maker. Subject Terms Decision Analysis, Utility Theory , Elicitation Error, Operations Research, Decision

  11. Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    2018-01-01

    systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

  12. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  13. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norris, C.; Sweet, T.; Borison, A.

    1991-01-01

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  14. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  15. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  17. DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

  18. Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.W.J. Dippel (Diederik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractDiagnostic and therapeutic choice in neurology can fortunately be made without formal decision support in the majority of cases. in many patients a diagnosis and treatment choice are relatively easy to establish. This study however, concerns the application of a decision support

  19. Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire D Tomkins

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

  20. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  1. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  2. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  3. Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipley, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

  4. Multivariate Analysis of Household Decision Making, Contraceptive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. ... exposure. The study concluded that women empowerment in decision ... through the prevention of unwanted and unplanned births is one of the most effective .... visitors who slept in the household the previous night before the survey) were eligible ...

  5. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2010-09-16

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

  6. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  7. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

  8. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

  9. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  10. PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

    2018-01-01

    Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

  11. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  12. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  13. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  14. SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  15. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1991-01-01

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  16. Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

    2016-09-01

    Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  18. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  19. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  20. Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

    2010-07-01

    It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.

  1. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  2. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

    2000-01-01

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  3. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  4. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  5. Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

    1994-01-01

    To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

  6. TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

    2016-01-01

    In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

  8. Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

    2017-12-01

    The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

  9. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  10. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  11. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

    1992-01-01

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  12. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  13. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that an Exploratory Studied Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical characterization decision because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing an constrains subsequent repository design. To assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative ESF-repository designs. The evaluation relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and enabled the Department of Energy to adopt an improved ESF design

  14. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  15. An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Li Meng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

  16. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orechwa, Y.

    2004-01-01

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  17. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  18. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  19. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  20. Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

  1. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    1991-09-01

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  2. Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Bitz, D.A.; Berry, D.L.; Jardine, L.J.

    1994-05-01

    A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington

  3. The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abulfaraj, W.H.; Abdul-Fattah, A.F.

    1985-01-01

    Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

  5. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  6. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  7. Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Sedlár

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

  8. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  9. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  10. Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Mary

    2010-11-01

    Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  12. Decision Making in Nursing Practice: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Mary L; O'Brien, Janice L

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to gain an understanding of the concept of decision making as it relates to the nurse practice environment. Rodgers' evolutionary method on concept analysis was used as a framework for the study of the concept. Articles from 1952 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), JSTOR, PubMed, and Science Direct. Findings suggest that decision making in the nurse practice environment is a complex process, integral to the nursing profession. The definition of decision making, and the attributes, antecedents, and consequences, are discussed. Contextual factors that influence the process are also discussed. An exemplar is presented to illustrate the concept. Decision making in the nurse practice environment is a dynamic conceptual process that may affect patient outcomes. Nurses need to call upon ways of knowing to make sound decisions and should be self-reflective in order to develop the process further in the professional arena. The need for further research is discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  14. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

  15. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  16. Using multicriteria decision analysis during drug development to predict reimbursement decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul; Mauskopf, Josephine; Lebiecki, Jake; Kilburg, Anne

    2014-01-01

    Pharmaceutical companies design clinical development programs to generate the data that they believe will support reimbursement for the experimental compound. The objective of the study was to present a process for using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) by a pharmaceutical company to estimate the probability of a positive recommendation for reimbursement for a new drug given drug and environmental attributes. The MCDA process included 1) selection of decisions makers who were representative of those making reimbursement decisions in a specific country; 2) two pre-workshop questionnaires to identify the most important attributes and their relative importance for a positive recommendation for a new drug; 3) a 1-day workshop during which participants undertook three tasks: i) they agreed on a final list of decision attributes and their importance weights, ii) they developed level descriptions for these attributes and mapped each attribute level to a value function, and iii) they developed profiles for hypothetical products 'just likely to be reimbursed'; and 4) use of the data from the workshop to develop a prediction algorithm based on a logistic regression analysis. The MCDA process is illustrated using case studies for three countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. The extent to which the prediction algorithms for each country captured the decision processes for the workshop participants in our case studies was tested using a post-meeting questionnaire that asked the participants to make recommendations for a set of hypothetical products. The data collected in the case study workshops resulted in a prediction algorithm: 1) for the United Kingdom, the probability of a positive recommendation for different ranges of cost-effectiveness ratios; 2) for Spain, the probability of a positive recommendation at the national and regional levels; and 3) for Germany, the probability of a determination of clinical benefit. The results from the post

  17. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  18. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, ...

  19. Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions: A Guide for Practitioners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sarah L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Watson, Andrea C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Grue, Nicholas W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Leisch, Jennifer E. [United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

    2018-03-16

    High-quality renewable energy resource data and other geographic information system (GIS) data are essential for the transition to a clean energy economy that prioritizes local resources, improves resiliency, creates jobs, and promotes energy independence. This guide is intended to support policymakers and planners, as well as technical experts, consultants, and academics in incorporating improved data and analysis into renewable energy decision-making.

  20. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  2. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  3. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  4. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  5. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  6. Decision making in quasi-markets: a pedagogic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, P R; Cullis, J G

    1996-04-01

    The objective of the 1991 NHS reforms was to reduce "excessive" vertical integration by constructing a quasi-market in which incentive structures and increased availability of information would enable decision makers make better use of resources. There is, however, no overall framework in which to consider the welfare gains which result from the introduction of a quasi-market or the welfare losses which arise from distortions in a quasi-market. This paper offers an analysis which can be applied to illustrate the difficulty of estimating the welfare loss from cream skimming and also to consider the impact of local monopoly.

  7. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  8. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  9. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool.

  10. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  11. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian; Lühmann, Dagmar; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Autti-Rämö, Ilona

    2008-08-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers. Integrating ethical considerations into HTA can improve the relevance of technology assessments for health care and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

  12. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  13. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  14. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Freshwater Resource Management in Southwestern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, C.; Baroud, H.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater resources in coastal Bangladesh fluctuate with extreme periods of shortage and abundance. Bangladeshis have adapted to these alternating periods but are still plagued with scarce drinking water resources due to pond water pathogens, salinity of groundwater, and arsenic contamination. The success of attempts to correct the problem of unsafe drinking water have varied across the southern Bangladesh as a result of physical and social factors. We use a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to explore the various physical and social factors that influence decisions about freshwater technologies and management schemes in southern Bangladesh. To determine the best freshwater technologies and management schemes, we examine four alternatives, including managed aquifer recharge (MAR), pond sand filter (PSF), rain water harvesting (RWH), and tubewells (TW). Criteria are grouped into four categories (environmental, technical, social, and economic) and weighting of social factors will be determined by community surveys, non-governmental organizations (NGO) opinions, and academic interviews. Social data include regional water quality perceptions, perceptions of management/technology success, MAR community surveys, and interviews with NGO partners. Environmental and technical feasibility factors are determined from regional water quality data, geospatial information, land use/land change, and regional stratigraphy. Survey data suggest a wide range of criteria based on location and stakeholder perception. MAR and PSF technologies likely have the greatest environmental and technical potential for success but are highly influenced by community dynamics, individual perspective, and NGO involvement. RWH solutions are used frequently and are successful at reducing the water security threats of contamination by pathogens, arsenic, and salts. This MCDA informs us of community and stakeholder water resource decisions, specifically related to their objectives and preferences.

  15. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  16. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  17. The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

    1990-01-01

    Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

  18. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  19. Personalized prophylactic anticoagulation decision analysis in patients with membranous nephropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taewoo; Biddle, Andrea K.; Lionaki, Sofia; Derebail, Vimal K.; Barbour, Sean J.; Tannous, Sameer; Hladunewich, Michelle A.; Hu, Yichun; Poulton, Caroline J.; Mahoney, Shannon L.; Jennette, J. Charles; Hogan, Susan L.; Falk, Ronald J.; Cattran, Daniel C.; Reich, Heather N.; Nachman, Patrick H.

    2014-01-01

    Primary membranous nephropathy is associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events, which are inversely correlated with serum albumin levels. To evaluate the potential benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation (venous thromboembolic events prevented) relative to the risk (major bleeds), we constructed a Markov decision model. The venous thromboembolic event risk according to serum albumin was obtained from an inception cohort of 898 patients with primary membranous nephropathy. Risk estimates of hemorrhage were obtained from a systematic literature review. Benefit-to-risk ratios were predicted according to bleeding risk and serum albumin. This ratio increased with worsening hypoalbuminemia from 4.5:1 for an albumin under 3 g/dl to 13.1:1 for an albumin under 2 g/dl in patients at low bleeding risk. Patients at intermediate bleeding risk with an albumin under 2 g/dl have a moderately favorable benefit-to-risk ratio (under 5:1). Patients at high bleeding risk are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation regardless of albuminemia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to account for uncertainty in risk estimates, confirmed these trends. From these data, we constructed a tool to estimate the likelihood of benefit based on an individual’s bleeding risk profile, serum albumin level, and acceptable benefit-to-risk ratio (http://www.gntools.com). This tool provides an approach to the decision of prophylactic anticoagulation personalized to the individual’s needs and adaptable to dynamic changes in health status and risk profile. PMID:24336031

  20. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  1. Decision aids for patients facing a surgical treatment decision: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knops, Anouk M.; Legemate, Dink A.; Goossens, Astrid; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Ubbink, Dirk T.

    2013-01-01

    To summarize the evidence available on the effects of decision aids in surgery. When consenting to treatment, few patients adequately understand their treatment options. To help patients make deliberate treatment choices, decision aids provide evidence-based information on the disease, treatment

  2. The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

  3. Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Klimack, William

    2002-01-01

    .... The impact of these differences was examined to improve implementation efficiency. The robustness of the decision model was examined with respect to the preference functions to reduce the time burden imposed on the decision maker...

  4. An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

    2017-01-01

    A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

  5. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  6. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  7. Generalized concavity in fuzzy optimization and decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ramík, Jaroslav

    2002-01-01

    Convexity of sets in linear spaces, and concavity and convexity of functions, lie at the root of beautiful theoretical results that are at the same time extremely useful in the analysis and solution of optimization problems, including problems of either single objective or multiple objectives. Not all of these results rely necessarily on convexity and concavity; some of the results can guarantee that each local optimum is also a global optimum, giving these methods broader application to a wider class of problems. Hence, the focus of the first part of the book is concerned with several types of generalized convex sets and generalized concave functions. In addition to their applicability to nonconvex optimization, these convex sets and generalized concave functions are used in the book's second part, where decision-making and optimization problems under uncertainty are investigated. Uncertainty in the problem data often cannot be avoided when dealing with practical problems. Errors occur in real-world data for...

  8. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  9. Decision Analysis on Survey and SOil Investigation Problem in Power Engineering Consultant

    OpenAIRE

    Setyaman, Amy Maulany; Sunitiyoso, Yos

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to gather and organize information for decision making against the problems arising in Power Engineering Consultant's survey and soil investigation product due to new policy in production cost efficiency that is implemented in 2012. The study conducted using Kepner and Tragoe's analytical process that consisted of four stages analytical process such as situation analysis, problem analysis, decision making analysis and potential problem analysis. As for the decision making analy...

  10. A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reay, Karen A.; Andrews, John D.

    2002-01-01

    The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events

  11. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  12. Clinical decision regret among critical care nurses: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslanian-Engoren, Cynthia; Scott, Linda D

    2014-01-01

    Decision regret is a negative cognitive emotion associated with experiences of guilt and situations of interpersonal harm. These negative affective responses may contribute to emotional exhaustion in critical care nurses (CCNs), increased staff turnover rates and high medication error rates. Yet, little is known about clinical decision regret among CCNs or the conditions or situations (e.g., feeling sleepy) that may precipitate its occurrence. To examine decision regret among CCNs, with an emphasis on clinical decisions made when nurses were most sleepy. A content analytic approach was used to examine the narrative descriptions of clinical decisions by CCNs when sleepy. Six decision regret themes emerged that represented deviations in practice or performance behaviors that were attributed to fatigued CCNs. While 157 CCNs disclosed a clinical decision they made at work while sleepy, the prevalence may be underestimated and warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Vascular access choice in incident hemodialysis patients: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, David A; Lok, Charmaine E; Cohen, Joshua T; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; Weiner, Daniel E

    2015-01-01

    Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 70% of United States dialysis patients. A decision tree model was constructed to reflect progression from hemodialysis initiation. Patients were classified into one of three vascular access choices: maintain CVC, attempt fistula, or attempt graft. We explicitly modeled probabilities of primary and secondary patency for each access type, with success modified by age, sex, and diabetes. Access-specific mortality was incorporated using preexisting cohort data, including terms for age, sex, and diabetes. Costs were ascertained from the 2010 USRDS report and Medicare for procedure costs. An AV fistula attempt strategy was found to be superior to AV grafts and CVCs in regard to mortality and cost for the majority of patient characteristic combinations, especially younger men without diabetes. Women with diabetes and elderly men with diabetes had similar outcomes, regardless of access type. Overall, the advantages of an AV fistula attempt strategy lessened considerably among older patients, particularly women with diabetes, reflecting the effect of lower AV fistula success rates and lower life expectancy. These results suggest that vascular access-related outcomes may be optimized by considering individual patient characteristics. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  14. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  15. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

  16. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

  17. Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaolu

    2017-01-01

    The book offers a comprehensive introduction to methods for solving multiple criteria decision making and group decision making problems with hesitant fuzzy information. It reports on the authors’ latest research, as well as on others’ research, providing readers with a complete set of decision making tools, such as hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS, hesitant fuzzy TODIM, hesitant fuzzy LINMAP, hesitant fuzzy QUALIFEX, and the deviation modeling approach with heterogeneous fuzzy information. The main focus is on decision making problems in which the criteria values and/or the weights of criteria are not expressed in crisp numbers but are more suitable to be denoted as hesitant fuzzy elements. The largest part of the book is devoted to new methods recently developed by the authors to solve decision making problems in situations where the available information is vague or hesitant. These methods are presented in detail, together with their application to different type of decision-making problems. All in all, the book ...

  18. Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

  19. Optimal soil venting design using Bayesian Decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kaluarachchi, J. J.; Wijedasa, A. H.

    1994-01-01

    Remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated sites can be costly and the design process becomes complex in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Classical decision theory related to remediation design requires the parameter uncertainties to be stipulated in terms of statistical estimates based on site observations. In the absence of detailed data on parameter uncertainty, classical decision theory provides little contribution in designing a risk-based optimal design strategy. Bayesian decision th...

  20. Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

  1. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  2. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Artelli, Michael

    1998-01-01

    .... In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives...

  4. Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

    2013-01-01

    Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

  5. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2015-11-15

    Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Fiji's centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji's deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  6. Vacation portfolio decisions: analysis using a Bayesian belief network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the extent to which vacation portfolio decisions are influenced by socio-demographic characteristics. A vacation portfolio involves interdependent decisions related to the facets that make the vacation trip, including transport mode, accommodation, destination,

  7. Water supply system decision making using multicriteria analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-07-04

    Jul 4, 2005 ... Political factor: Tourism in the city (Cr4). Each of these was measured according to the points of view of the decision makers. Some of these were difficult to measure, and this is one of the reasons for using multicriteria decision aid. The use of this methodology may be helpful in preserving all the information ...

  8. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work is e...

  9. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  10. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  11. Analysis and decision making method for radiation accident situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammet, H.; Hamard, J.

    1975-01-01

    Decisions on the application of countermeasures for accident situations must take into account the cost of these countermeasures and the feasibility of reducing the exposure. A contribution to the solution of this problem, rested on the application of the principle of choice rationalization and optimization of decision making method, is presented [fr

  12. Multiple criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Duenas, Alejandra

    2012-12-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been suggested by some researchers as a method to capture the benefits beyond quality adjusted life-years in a transparent and consistent manner. The objectives of this article were to analyze the possible application of MCDA approaches in health technology assessment and to describe their relative advantages and disadvantages. This article begins with an introduction to the most common types of MCDA models and a critical review of state-of-the-art methods for incorporating multiple criteria in health technology assessment. An overview of MCDA is provided and is compared against the current UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence health technology appraisal process. A generic MCDA modeling approach is described, and the different MCDA modeling approaches are applied to a hypothetical case study. A comparison of the different MCDA approaches is provided, and the generic issues that need consideration before the application of MCDA in health technology assessment are examined. There are general practical issues that might arise from using an MCDA approach, and it is suggested that appropriate care be taken to ensure the success of MCDA techniques in the appraisal process. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  14. Identifying a preservation zone using multicriteria decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farashi, A.; Naderi, M.; Parvian, N.

    2016-07-01

    Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine. (Author)

  15. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Pierru, A.

    2005-01-01

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  16. Microseismic Monitoring Design Optimization Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovaleva, Y.; Tamimi, N.; Ostadhassan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fracture treatments of unconventional reservoirs is a widely used method in the oil and gas industry. Sometimes, the quality of the acquired microseismic data is poor. One of the reasons for poor data quality is poor survey design. We attempt to provide a comprehensive and thorough workflow, using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), to optimize planning micriseismic monitoring. So far, microseismic monitoring has been used extensively as a powerful tool for determining fracture parameters that affect the influx of formation fluids into the wellbore. The factors that affect the quality of microseismic data and their final results include average distance between microseismic events and receivers, complexity of the recorded wavefield, signal-to-noise ratio, data aperture, etc. These criteria often conflict with each other. In a typical microseismic monitoring, those factors should be considered to choose the best monitoring well(s), optimum number of required geophones, and their depth. We use MDCA to address these design challenges and develop a method that offers an optimized design out of all possible combinations to produce the best data acquisition results. We believe that this will be the first research to include the above-mentioned factors in a 3D model. Such a tool would assist companies and practicing engineers in choosing the best design parameters for future microseismic projects.

  17. Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

    2009-09-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  19. Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2005-01-01

    In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

  20. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1995-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software

  1. Design and Analysis of Decision Rules via Dynamic Programming

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.

    2017-04-24

    The areas of machine learning, data mining, and knowledge representation have many different formats used to represent information. Decision rules, amongst these formats, are the most expressive and easily-understood by humans. In this thesis, we use dynamic programming to design decision rules and analyze them. The use of dynamic programming allows us to work with decision rules in ways that were previously only possible for brute force methods. Our algorithms allow us to describe the set of all rules for a given decision table. Further, we can perform multi-stage optimization by repeatedly reducing this set to only contain rules that are optimal with respect to selected criteria. One way that we apply this study is to generate small systems with short rules by simulating a greedy algorithm for the set cover problem. We also compare maximum path lengths (depth) of deterministic and non-deterministic decision trees (a non-deterministic decision tree is effectively a complete system of decision rules) with regards to Boolean functions. Another area of advancement is the presentation of algorithms for constructing Pareto optimal points for rules and rule systems. This allows us to study the existence of “totally optimal” decision rules (rules that are simultaneously optimal with regards to multiple criteria). We also utilize Pareto optimal points to compare and rate greedy heuristics with regards to two criteria at once. Another application of Pareto optimal points is the study of trade-offs between cost and uncertainty which allows us to find reasonable systems of decision rules that strike a balance between length and accuracy.

  2. Balancing Information Analysis and Decision Value: A Model to Exploit the Decision Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    technical intelli- gence e.g. signals and sensors (SIGINT and MASINT), imagery (!MINT), as well and human and open source intelligence (HUMINT and OSINT ...Clark 2006). The ability to capture large amounts of da- ta and the plenitude of modem intelligence information sources provides a rich cache of...many tech- niques for managing information collected and derived from these sources , the exploitation of intelligence assets for decision-making

  3. Design and Analysis of Decision Rules via Dynamic Programming

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.

    2017-01-01

    Another area of advancement is the presentation of algorithms for constructing Pareto optimal points for rules and rule systems. This allows us to study the existence of “totally optimal” decision rules

  4. Risk Analysis: Its Application to Argumentation and Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follert, Vincent

    1981-01-01

    Notes that utility theory has enjoyed renewed interest among debate critics and other decision makers. Some of the problems with its application are identified and guidelines for debaters are suggested. (PD)

  5. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  6. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision problems. New quantitative models are developed for these decision problems using a range of mathematical techniques, thereby contributing to the further development of purchasing theory and its appliati...

  7. Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis; The Algebraic Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of

  8. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ... Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS).'' The..., organize, and share information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's...

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  10. Immunizing Children: A Qualitative Analysis of Future Parental Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeleta, Hannah C; Beasley, Lana O; Ridings, Leigh E; Smith, Tyler J; Shields, Jennifer D

    2017-10-01

    Vaccinations are considered one of public health's greatest accomplishments. Despite evidence for vaccine effectiveness, uptake levels are still well below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines. The immunization decision-making process for parents is complex and depends on factors associated with knowledge and experiences. This qualitative study sought to expand on a previous decision-making model for immunizations by examining how individuals receive vaccination information, determining the role of experience in influencing decisions, and understanding how young adults might locate vaccination information in the future. Three focus groups were conducted with 29 undergraduate students without children. Results suggest that young adults exhibit an awareness of information regarding vaccine use and effectiveness, value doctor opinions and recommendations, and desire more robust research on vaccinations. Implications of these results include the importance of (1) disseminating vaccination education to young adults, (2) enhancing consistency/trust between medical professionals and youth, and (3) expanding public policy to increase vaccine uptake.

  11. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties

  12. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation.

  13. [Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

  14. Understanding antibiotic decision making in surgery-a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charani, E; Tarrant, C; Moorthy, K; Sevdalis, N; Brennan, L; Holmes, A H

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the characteristics and culture of antibiotic decision making in the surgical specialty. A qualitative study including ethnographic observation and face-to-face interviews with participants from six surgical teams at a teaching hospital in London was conducted. Over a 3-month period: (a) 30 ward rounds (WRs) (100 h) were observed, (b) face-to-face follow-up interviews took place with 13 key informants, (c) multidisciplinary meetings on the management of surgical patients and daily practice on wards were observed. Applying these methods provided rich data for characterizing the antibiotic decision making in surgery and enabled cross-validation and triangulation of the findings. Data from the interview transcripts and the observational notes were coded and analysed iteratively until saturation was reached. The surgical team is in a state of constant flux with individuals having to adjust to the context in which they work. The demands placed on the team to be in the operating room, and to address the surgical needs of the patient mean that the responsibility for antibiotic decision making is uncoordinated and diffuse. Antibiotic decision making is considered by surgeons as a secondary task, commonly delegated to junior members of their team and occurs in the context of disjointed communication. There is lack of clarity around medical decision making for treating infections in surgical patients. The result is sub-optimal and uncoordinated antimicrobial management. Developing the role of a perioperative clinician may help to improve patient-level outcomes and optimize decision making. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. An analysis of the buy-vs-lease decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Jonathan W; Lexa, Frank J

    2006-02-01

    This article presents a financial model to analyze the buy-vs-lease decision. The model is constructed from the perspective of a lessee with an operating lease and uses the concept of net present value, which calculates the current value of predicted cash flows in the future. Predicted cash flows of an operating lease compared with buying are presented in the model, as is the after-tax borrowing rate, the appropriate discount rate used in a model of this type. The article also discusses nonfinancial factors that may influence the buy-vs-lease decision, including the need for flexibility in working capital and the anticipated technological obsolescence of equipment.

  16. Lifetime risks of kidney donation: a medical decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiberd, Bryce A; Tennankore, Karthik K

    2017-09-01

    This study estimated the potential loss of life and the lifetime cumulative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from live kidney donation. Markov medical decision analysis. USA. 40-year-old live kidney donors of both sexes and black/white race. Live donor nephrectomy. Potential remaining life years lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and added lifetime cumulative risk of ESRD from donation. Overall 0.532-0.884 remaining life years were lost from donating a kidney. This was equivalent to 1.20%-2.34% of remaining life years (or 0.76%-1.51% remaining QALYs). The risk was higher in male and black individuals. The study showed that 1%-5% of average-age current live kidney donors might develop ESRD as a result of nephrectomy. The added risk of ESRD resulted in a loss of only 0.126-0.344 remaining life years. Most of the loss of life was predicted to be associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not ESRD. Most events occurred 25 or more years after donation. Reducing the increased risk of death associated with CKD had a modest overall effect on the per cent loss of remaining life years (0.72%-1.9%) and QALYs (0.58%-1.33%). Smoking and obesity reduced life expectancy and increased overall lifetime risks of ESRD in non-donors. However the percentage loss of remaining life years from donation was not very different in those with or without these risk factors. Live kidney donation may reduce life expectancy by 0.5-1 year in most donors. The development of ESRD in donors may not be the only measure of risk as most of the predicted loss of life predates ESRD. The study identifies the potential importance of following donors and treating risk factors aggressively to prevent ESRD and to improve donor survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  18. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  19. An empirical analysis of capital structure decisions in Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.

    1999-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis investigates capital structure decisions in Dutch firms. Firms are faced with the choice from a variety of sources of financing for the funding of their activities. These choices determine the firms' capital structures. Building on the well known theorems of Modigliani and Miller,

  20. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  1. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision

  2. An analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

  3. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  4. Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S R; Hayward, G M

    1982-01-01

    In our interim report a general review was given of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report, consideration is given to examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) which could be used to assist these tasks are discussed. The example decisions chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream.

  5. IMPLEMENTATION OF GIS-BASED MULTICRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS WITH VB IN ArcGIS

    OpenAIRE

    DERYA OZTURK; FATMAGUL BATUK

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geographical information systems (GIS) and introduces a tool, GIS–MCDA, written in visual basic in ArcGIS for GIS-based MCDA. The GIS–MCDA deals with raster-based data sets and includes standardization, weighting and decision analysis methods, and sensitivity analysis. Simple additive weighting, weighted product method, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, compromise programming, a...

  6. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  7. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action: developing a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA ) process for prioritization of NAMAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Sudhir; Desgain, Denis DR; Sandbukt, Sunniva

    be relevant as next year countries will have to translate their mitigation contribution outlined in their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC into implementation plans. Multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool commonly used for decision making process, including to rank options or to short-list a limited...

  8. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  9. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  10. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

  11. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  12. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  13. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Dannenberg, M.; Blaine, A.; Poddar, U.; Durand, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. DESIGN: Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing

  14. Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nease, R F

    1996-01-01

    Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

  15. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of public... 2010 version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal...

  16. Analysis of decision procedures for a sequence of inventory periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avenhaus, R.

    1982-07-01

    Optimal test procedures for a sequence of inventory periods will be discussed. Starting with a game theoretical description of the conflict situation between the plant operator and the inspector, the objectives of the inspector as well as the general decision theoretical problem will be formulated. In the first part the objective of 'secure' detection will be emphasized which means that only at the end of the reference time a decision is taken by the inspector. In the second part the objective of 'timely' detection will be emphasized which will lead to sequential test procedures. At the end of the paper all procedures will be summarized, and in view of the multitude of procedures available at the moment some comments about future work will be given. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  18. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defechereux Thierry

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  19. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defechereux, Thierry; Paolucci, Francesco; Mirelman, Andrew; Youngkong, Sitaporn; Botten, Grete; Hagen, Terje P; Niessen, Louis W

    2012-02-15

    Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  20. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  1. Patient decision making competence: outlines of a conceptual analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welie, J V; Welie, S P

    2001-01-01

    In order to protect patients against medical paternalism, patients have been granted the right to respect of their autonomy. This right is operationalized first and foremost through the phenomenon of informed consent. If the patient withholds consent, medical treatment, including life-saving treatment, may not be provided. However, there is one proviso: The patient must be competent to realize his autonomy and reach a decision about his own care that reflects that autonomy. Since one of the most important patient rights hinges on the patient's competence, it is crucially important that patient decision making incompetence is clearly defined and can be diagnosed with the greatest possible degree of sensitivity and, even more important, specificity. Unfortunately, the reality is quite different. There is little consensus in the scientific literature and even less among clinicians and in the law as to what competence exactly means, let alone how it can be diagnosed reliably. And yet, patients are deemed incompetent on a daily basis, losing the right to respect of their autonomy. In this article, we set out to fill that hiatus by beginning at the very beginning, the literal meaning of the term competence. We suggest a generic definition of competence and derive four necessary conditions of competence. We then transpose this definition to the health care context and discuss patient decision making competence.

  2. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  3. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M.; Salo, A.

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

  4. Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Aldrin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the present research are: 1 to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2 to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3 how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea and opinion. Research result shows that product which has many ratings and reviews will trigger other buyers to purchase or get that product. The conclusion is that product buying decision may occur because there are some processes before making decision which are: looking for recognition and searching for problems, knowing the needs, collecting information, evaluating alternative, evaluating after buying. In those stages, buying decision on Lazada e-commerce is supported by price, promotion, service, and brand.

  5. A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.

  6. Decisions and Reasons: Examining Preservice Teacher Decision-Making through Video Self-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Peter J.; Hannafin, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Methods used to study teacher thinking have both provided insight into the cognitive aspects of teaching and resulted in new, as yet unresolved, relationships between practice and theory. Recent developments in video-analysis tools have allowed preservice teachers to analyze both their practices and thinking, providing important feedback for…

  7. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  8. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of TWRS waste treatment strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model

  9. A Decision Making Analysis of Persuasive Argumentation and the Choice Shift Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinokur, Amiram; And Others

    1975-01-01

    A subjective expected utility (SEU) decision-making analysis was performed on the content of arguments generated by subjects privately or during group discussion in response to choice-dilemmas shown to shift toward risk and caution. (Editor)

  10. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  11. FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

  12. Decision support for farmers in Africa: Analysis of the roles and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decision support for farmers in Africa: Analysis of the roles and ... producers to access more consumable, accurate and timely information for making informed choices. ... To capitalise on 'big data', the sub-Saharan African grain industry needs ...

  13. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackey, H.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States); Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D. [South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States)

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  14. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  15. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Using reliability analysis to support decision making\\ud in phased mission systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...

  17. Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...

  18. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  19. Shared decision-making in the paediatric field: a literature review and concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eun Sook; Cho, In Young

    2017-09-13

    The concept of shared decision-making is poorly defined and often used interchangeably with related terms. The aim of this study was to delineate and clarify the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field. Rodgers and Knafl's evolutionary concept analysis was used to delineate and clarify the concept. Following a search of the CINAHL, PubMed and MEDLINE databases and online journals between 1995 and 2016, we included a total of 42 articles that referred to shared decision-making in the paediatric field. The attributes included active participation of the three: parents, children and health professionals; collaborative partnership; reaching a compromise; and common goal for child's health. Antecedents were existing several options with different possible outcomes; substantial decisional conflict; recognising child's health situations that decision-making is needed; and willingness to participate in decision-making. Finally, the consequences included decreased decisional conflict; mutual empowerment; improved child health status; and improved quality of paediatric health care. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field; furthermore, by integrating this concept into paediatric practice, it may help to reduce the gap between theory and practice. The analysis could also provide nursing researchers with insight into paediatric decision-making and establish a foundation to develop future interventions and situation-specific theory for promoting high-quality decision-making in the paediatric field. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  20. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  1. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, T.C.; Maigan, M.; Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bolshov, L.A.; Demianov, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  2. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

  3. Game Theoretic Interaction and Decision: A Quantum Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Faigle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available An interaction system has a finite set of agents that interact pairwise, depending on the current state of the system. Symmetric decomposition of the matrix of interaction coefficients yields the representation of states by self-adjoint matrices and hence a spectral representation. As a result, cooperation systems, decision systems and quantum systems all become visible as manifestations of special interaction systems. The treatment of the theory is purely mathematical and does not require any special knowledge of physics. It is shown how standard notions in cooperative game theory arise naturally in this context. In particular, states of general interaction systems are seen to arise as linear superpositions of pure quantum states and Fourier transformation to become meaningful. Moreover, quantum games fall into this framework. Finally, a theory of Markov evolution of interaction states is presented that generalizes classical homogeneous Markov chains to the present context.

  4. Ship Engine Room Casualty Analysis by Using Decision Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ömür Yaşar SAATÇİOĞLU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Ships may encounter undesirable conditions during operations. In consequence of a casualty, fire, explosion, flooding, grounding, injury even death may occur. Besides, these results can be avoidable with precautions and preventive operating processes. In maritime transportation, casualties depend on various factors. These were listed as misuse of the engine equipment and tools, defective machinery or equipment, inadequacy of operational procedure and measure of safety and force majeure effects. Casualty reports which were published in Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Canada and United States until 2015 were examined and the probable causes and consequences of casualties were determined with their occurrence percentages. In this study, 89 marine investigation reports regarding engine room casualties were analyzed. Casualty factors were analyzed with their frequency percentages and also their main causes were constructed. This study aims to investigate engine room based casualties, frequency of each casualty type and main causes by using decision tree method.

  5. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  6. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  7. Individual relocation decisions after tornadoes: a multi-level analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Nejat, Ali; Liang, Daan; Pei, Yaolin; Javid, Roxana J

    2018-04-01

    This study examines how multi-level factors affected individuals' relocation decisions after EF4 and EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale) tornadoes struck the United States in 2013. A telephone survey was conducted with 536 respondents, including oversampled older adults, one year after these two disaster events. Respondents' addresses were used to associate individual information with block group-level variables recorded by the American Community Survey. Logistic regression revealed that residential damage and homeownership are important predictors of relocation. There was also significant interaction between these two variables, indicating less difference between homeowners and renters at higher damage levels. Homeownership diminished the likelihood of relocation among younger respondents. Random effects logistic regression found that the percentage of homeownership and of higher income households in the community buffered the effect of damage on relocation; the percentage of older adults reduced the likelihood of this group relocating. The findings are assessed from the standpoint of age difference, policy implications, and social capital and vulnerability. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  8. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  9. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keeney, R.L; Nair, K.

    1975-01-01

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  10. Web-Based Analysis for Decision Support Systems

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Faculty of Computing and Information Technology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, SA ... impact of web-based analysis on DSSs and how it affects ... Internal users. ... and control of models, especially accounting, financial,.

  11. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  12. Decision-making in rectal and colorectal cancer: systematic review and qualitative analysis of surgeons' preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broc, Guillaume; Gana, Kamel; Denost, Quentin; Quintard, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Surgeons are experiencing difficulties implementing recommendations not only owing to incomplete, confusing or conflicting information but also to the increasing involvement of patients in decisions relating to their health. This study sought to establish which common factors including heuristic factors guide surgeons' decision-making in colon and rectal cancers. We conducted a systematic literature review of surgeons' decision-making factors related to colon and rectal cancer treatment. Eleven of 349 identified publications were eligible for data analyses. Using the IRaMuTeQ (Interface of R for the Multidimensional Analyses of Texts and Questionnaire), we carried out a qualitative analysis of the significant factors collected in the studies reviewed. Several validation procedures were applied to control the robustness of the findings. Five categories of factors (i.e. patient, surgeon, treatment, tumor and organizational cues) were found to influence surgeons' decision-making. Specifically, all decision criteria including biomedical (e.g. tumor information) and heuristic (e.g. surgeons' dispositional factors) criteria converged towards the factor 'age of patient' in the similarity analysis. In the light of the results, we propose an explanatory model showing the impact of heuristic criteria on medical issues (i.e. diagnosis, prognosis, treatment features, etc.) and thus on decision-making. Finally, the psychosocial complexity involved in decision-making is discussed and a medico-psycho-social grid for use in multidisciplinary meetings is proposed.

  13. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  14. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We...... and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money...

  15. Systematic maintenance analysis with decision support method and tool for optimizing maintenance programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laakso, K.; Simola, K.; Dorrepaal, J.; Skogberg, P.

    1999-01-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of test and maintenance programs of technical systems used during several years. The method combines an analysis of the historical data on faults and repairs with an analysis of the history of periodic testing and preventive maintenance action programs. The application of the maintenance analysis from the methodological point of view in the reliability centered maintenance (RCM) project for Barsebaeck nuclear power plant is described. In order to limit the analysis resources, a method for ranking of objects for maintenance analysis is needed. Preliminary suggestions for changes in maintenance action programs are based on signals from simple maintenance indicators and qualitative analysis of underlying data on failures and maintenance. To facilitate generation of maintenance indicators, and make the maintenance analysis more efficient, a powerful and suitable data treatment tool is needed for analysis of the work order history. In the final maintenance decisions, additional decision criteria must be taken into account, and thus a more formal decision analysis is often needed for decision support. (au)

  16. Proof of patient information: Analysis of 201 judicial decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugleux, E; Rached, H; Rougé-Maillart, C

    2018-05-01

    The ruling by the French Court of Cassation dated February 25, 1997 obliged doctors to provide proof of the information given to patients, reversing more than half a century of case law. In October 1997, it was specified that such evidence could be provided by "all means", including presumption. No hierarchy in respect of means of proof has been defined by case law or legislation. The present study analyzed judicial decisions with a view to determining the means of proof liable to carry the most weight in a suit for failure to provide due patient information. A retrospective qualitative study was conducted for the period from January 2010 to December 2015, by a search on the LexisNexis ® JurisClasseur website. Two hundred and one judicial decisions relating to failure to provide due patient information were selected and analyzed to study the characteristics of the practitioners involved, the content of the information at issue and the means of proof provided. The resulting cohort of practitioners was compared with the medical demographic atlas of the French Order of Medicine, considered as exhaustive. Two hundred and one practitioners were investigated for failure to provide information: 45 medical practitioners (22±3%), and 156 surgeons (78±3%) including 45 orthopedic surgeons (29±3.6% of surgeons). Hundred and ninety-three were private sector (96±1.3%) and 8 public sector (4±1.3%). Hundred and one surgeons (65±3.8% of surgeons), and 26 medical practitioners (58±7.4%) were convicted. Twenty-five of the 45 orthopedic surgeons were convicted (55±7.5%). There was no significant difference in conviction rates between surgeons and medical practitioners: odds ratio, 1.339916; 95% CI [0.6393982; 2.7753764] (Chi 2 test: p=0.49). Ninety-two practitioners based their defense on a single means of proof, and 74 of these were convicted (80±4.2%). Forty practitioners based their defense on several means of proof, and 16 of these were convicted (40±7.8%). There was

  17. RATING DECISION ANALYSIS BASED ON IOS APP STORE DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Erić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of the paper is to describe the specific aspects of the e-commerce model business-to-consumer as a constantly developing field of an economic life in the Central European countries according to their customers. The current state of e-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce issue was identified by the research in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.Methodology/Approach: For the purposes of collecting primary data the crucial factor for the selection of e-shops was identification of the suitable  online portals focused on post-purchase evaluation of e-shops in Visegrad group countries. Automatic data collection method was used for the observed variables (evaluations within selected online portals of the identified e-shops. The total of 5,228,127 evaluations of 9,260 e-shops were analysed. The main focus was given to customer overall satisfaction with an e-shop in relation to communication with a customer or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Findings: The results of the research showed that there exists a direct relation between overall satisfaction with an e-shop and communication with customers or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Originality/Value of paper: The ambition of this paper through the findings is to help subjects of e-commerce in their marketing decisions in order to even better understand the factors that influence customers’ satisfaction. 

  18. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat sealant in preventing a new intramammary infection in a cow free of infection in all quarters of the mammary gland at drying off. However, a potential net loss of over pound20 per cow might occur ...

  19. Analysis of Decision Making Skills for Large Scale Disaster Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-21

    Capability to influence and collaborate Compassion Teamwork Communication Leadership Provide vision of outcome / set priorities Confidence, courage to make...project evaluates the viability of expanding the use of serious games to augment classroom training, tabletop and full scale exercise, and actual...training, evaluation, analysis, and technology ex- ploration. Those techniques have found successful niches, but their wider applicability faces

  20. [Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

    2017-08-15

    Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  1. Beyond utilitarianism: a method for analyzing competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Michael L; Lok, Anna S F; Ubel, Peter A; Vijan, Sandeep

    2008-01-01

    The utilitarian foundation of decision analysis limits its usefulness for many social policy decisions. In this study, the authors examine a method to incorporate competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation for a patient with acute liver failure (ALF). A Markov model was constructed to compare the benefit of transplantation for a patient with ALF versus the harm caused to other patients on the waiting list and to determine the lowest acceptable 5-y posttransplant survival for the ALF patient. The weighting of the ALF patient and other patients was then adjusted using a multiattribute variable incorporating utilitarianism, urgency, and other principles such as fair chances. In the base-case analysis, the strategy of transplanting the ALF patient resulted in a 0.8% increase in the risk of death and a utility loss of 7.8 quality-adjusted days of life for each of the other patients on the waiting list. These harms cumulatively outweighed the benefit of transplantation for an ALF patient having a posttransplant survival of less than 48% at 5 y. However, the threshold for an acceptable posttransplant survival for the ALF patient ranged from 25% to 56% at 5 y, depending on the ethical principles involved. The results of the decision analysis vary depending on the ethical perspective. This study demonstrates how competing ethical principles can be numerically incorporated in a decision analysis.

  2. Decision Engines for Software Analysis Using Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solvers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorner, Nikolaj

    2010-01-01

    The area of software analysis, testing and verification is now undergoing a revolution thanks to the use of automated and scalable support for logical methods. A well-recognized premise is that at the core of software analysis engines is invariably a component using logical formulas for describing states and transformations between system states. The process of using this information for discovering and checking program properties (including such important properties as safety and security) amounts to automatic theorem proving. In particular, theorem provers that directly support common software constructs offer a compelling basis. Such provers are commonly called satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solvers. Z3 is a state-of-the-art SMT solver. It is developed at Microsoft Research. It can be used to check the satisfiability of logical formulas over one or more theories such as arithmetic, bit-vectors, lists, records and arrays. The talk describes some of the technology behind modern SMT solvers, including the solver Z3. Z3 is currently mainly targeted at solving problems that arise in software analysis and verification. It has been applied to various contexts, such as systems for dynamic symbolic simulation (Pex, SAGE, Vigilante), for program verification and extended static checking (Spec#/Boggie, VCC, HAVOC), for software model checking (Yogi, SLAM), model-based design (FORMULA), security protocol code (F7), program run-time analysis and invariant generation (VS3). We will describe how it integrates support for a variety of theories that arise naturally in the context of the applications. There are several new promising avenues and the talk will touch on some of these and the challenges related to SMT solvers. Proceedings

  3. Decision on performing interim analysis for comparative clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pak, Kyongsun; Jacobus, Susanna; Uno, Hajime

    2017-09-01

    In randomized-controlled trials, interim analyses are often planned for possible early trial termination to claim superiority or futility of a new therapy. While unblinding is necessary to conduct the formal interim analysis in blinded studies, blinded data also have information about the potential treatment difference between the groups. We developed a blinded data monitoring tool that enables investigators to predict whether they observe such an unblinded interim analysis results that supports early termination of the trial. Investigators may skip some of the planned interim analyses if an early termination is unlikely. We specifically focused on blinded, randomized-controlled studies to compare binary endpoints of a new treatment with a control. Assuming one interim analysis is planned for early termination for superiority or futility, we conducted extensive simulation studies to assess the impact of the implementation of our tool on the size, power, expected number of interim analyses, and bias in the treatment effect. The numerical study showed the proposed monitoring tool does not affect size or power, but dramatically reduces the expected number of interim analyses when the effect of the treatment difference is small. The tool serves as a useful reference when interpreting the summary of the blinded data throughout the course of the trial, without losing integrity of the study. This tool could potentially save the study resources and budget by avoiding unnecessary interim analyses.

  4. Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.; Hayward, G.M.

    1982-03-01

    In our interim report we gave a general review of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report we go on to consider examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and to discuss how two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) could be used to assist these tasks. The example decisions we have chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream. (U.K.)

  5. Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

    2018-01-19

    OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

  6. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place.

  7. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  8. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2016-01-01

    Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

  9. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wackowski, R.K.; Stevens, C.E.; Masoner, L.O.; Attanucci, V.; Larson, J.L.; Aslesen, K.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO 2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO 2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  10. Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

    2017-08-16

    The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

  11. Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

    1988-01-01

    A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

  12. A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinh Luu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

  13. Allocating health care: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, or the veil of ignorance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goold, S D

    1996-01-01

    Assuming that rationing health care is unavoidable, and that it requires moral reasoning, how should we allocate limited health care resources? This question is difficult because our pluralistic, liberal society has no consensus on a conception of distributive justice. In this article I focus on an alternative: Who shall decide how to ration health care, and how shall this be done to respect autonomy, pluralism, liberalism, and fairness? I explore three processes for making rationing decisions: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, and applications of the veil of ignorance. I evaluate these processes as examples of procedural justice, assuming that there is no outcome considered the most just. I use consent as a criterion to judge competing processes so that rationing decisions are, to some extent, self-imposed. I also examine the processes' feasibility in our current health care system. Cost-utility analysis does not meet criteria for actual or presumed consent, even if costs and health-related utility could be measured perfectly. Existing structures of government cannot creditably assimilate the information required for sound rationing decisions, and grassroots efforts are not representative. Applications of the veil of ignorance are more useful for identifying principles relevant to health care rationing than for making concrete rationing decisions. I outline a process of decision making, specifically for health care, that relies on substantive, selected representation, respects pluralism, liberalism, and deliberative democracy, and could be implemented at the community or organizational level.

  14. Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.

    2016-01-01

    The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.

  15. ADA perceived disability claims: a decision-tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, William R; Hawley, Carolyn E; McMahon, Brian T; Reid, Christine A; Barbir, Lara A

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the possible interactions of predictor variables pertaining to perceived disability claims contained in a large governmental database. Specifically, it is a retrospective analysis of US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) data for the entire population of workplace discrimination claims based on the "regarded as disabled" prong of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) definition of disability. The study utilized records extracted from a "master database" of over two million charges of workplace discrimination in the Integrated Mission System of the EEOC. This database includes all ADA-related discrimination allegations filed from July 26, 1992 through December 31, 2008. Chi squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) was employed to analyze interaction effects of relevant variables, such as issue (grievance) and industry type. The research question addressed by CHAID is: What combination of factors are associated with merit outcomes for people making ADA EEOC allegations who are "regarded as" having disabilities? The CHAID analysis shows how merit outcome is predicted by the interaction of relevant variables. Issue was found to be the most prominent variable in determining merit outcome, followed by industry type, but the picture is made more complex by qualifications regarding age and race data. Although discharge was the most frequent grievance among charging parties in the perceived disability group, its merit outcome was significantly less than that for the leading factor of hiring.

  16. Using decision trees and their ensembles for analysis of NIR spectroscopic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.

    and interpretation of the models. In this presentation, we are going to discuss an applicability of decision trees based methods (including gradient boosting) for solving classification and regression tasks with NIR spectra as predictors. We will cover such aspects as evaluation, optimization and validation......Advanced machine learning methods, like convolutional neural networks and decision trees, became extremely popular in the last decade. This, first of all, is directly related to the current boom in Big data analysis, where traditional statistical methods are not efficient. According to the kaggle.......com — the most popular online resource for Big data problems and solutions — methods based on decision trees and their ensembles are most widely used for solving the problems. It can be noted that the decision trees and convolutional neural networks are not very popular in Chemometrics. One of the reasons...

  17. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  18. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making Among Black Mothers with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amutah, Ndidiamaka N; Gifuni, Jacqueline; Wesley, Yvonne

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1) family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2) negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3) birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted.

  19. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making among Black Mothers with HIV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ndidiamaka N. Amutah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1 family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2 negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3 birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted.

  20. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

  1. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Jessica C; Stack, Meghan L; Richmond, Marcie R; Bear, Allyson P; Hajjeh, Rana A; Bishai, David M

    2010-03-16

    Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  2. A multimethod analysis of shared decision-making in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings including family caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Karla T; Oliver, Debra Parker; Gage, L Ashley; Albright, David L; Demiris, George

    2016-03-01

    Much of the existing research on shared decision-making in hospice and palliative care focuses on the provider-patient dyad; little is known about shared decision-making that is inclusive of family members of patients with advanced disease. We sought to describe shared decision-making as it occurred in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers as participants using video-conferencing technology. We conducted a multimethod study in which we used content and thematic analysis techniques to analyze video-recordings of hospice interdisciplinary team meetings (n = 100), individual interviews of family caregivers (n = 73) and hospice staff members (n = 78), and research field notes. Participants in the original studies from which data for this analysis were drawn were hospice family caregivers and staff members employed by one of five different community-based hospice agencies located in the Midwestern United States. Shared decision-making occurred infrequently in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers. Barriers to shared decision-making included time constraints, communication skill deficits, unaddressed emotional needs, staff absences, and unclear role expectations. The hospice philosophy of care, current trends in healthcare delivery, the interdisciplinary nature of hospice teams, and the designation of a team leader/facilitator supported shared decision-making. The involvement of family caregivers in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings using video-conferencing technology creates a useful platform for shared decision-making; however, steps must be taken to transform family caregivers from meeting attendees to shared decision-makers. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Tang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

  4. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strat...

  5. Competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd - A base for strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Markkanen, Sini

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to execute a competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd. The analysis focused on finding the company’s current competitors operating in Finland. The commissioner Feelback intended to use the competitor information in strategic decision making, such as planning the company’s operations in the competitive environment. The competitor analysis found 14 competitors which were grouped into direct, indirect and potential competitors. As a conclusion, it can be stated t...

  6. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  7. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

  8. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  9. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  10. Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

  11. Data mining approach to bipolar cognitive map development and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Ran

    2002-03-01

    A data mining approach to cognitive mapping is presented based on bipolar logic, bipolar relations, and bipolar clustering. It is shown that a correlation network derived from a database can be converted to a bipolar cognitive map (or bipolar relation). A transitive, symmetric, and reflexive bipolar relation (equilibrium relation) can be used to identify focal links in decision analysis. It can also be used to cluster a set of events or itemsets into three different clusters: coalition sets, conflict sets, and harmony sets. The coalition sets are positively correlated events or itemsets; each conflict set is a negatively correlated set of two coalition subsets; and a harmony set consists of events that are both negatively and positively correlated. A cognitive map and the clusters can then be used for online decision analysis. This approach combines knowledge discovery with the views of decision makers and provides an effective means for online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM).

  12. Winning at litigation through decision analysis creating and executing winning strategies in any litigation or dispute

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, John

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first in-depth guide to applying the philosophy, theory, and methods of decision analysis to creating and executing winning legal strategies. With explanations that progress from introductory to advanced and practice problems at the end of each chapter, this is a book the reader will want to use and refer to for years to come. Practicing decision analysts, operations research and management science students, attorneys and law students will find this book an invaluable addition to their knowledge and skills. John Celona has over three decades of experience in teaching and applying decision analysis. John lectures in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and is on faculty at The Stanford Center for Professional Development, the American Course on Drug Development and Regulatory Sciences, and the Academy of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management.

  13. Using Decision Analysis to Understand the Indications for Unilateral Hand Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Brett; Novak, Christine B.; Hanna, Steven; McCabe, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Upper extremity transplantation has been performed to improve quality of life, the benefit which must be traded off for the risk created by life-long immunosuppression. We believe the process of decision analysis is well suited to improve our understanding of these trade-offs. Method: We created a decision tree to include a branch point to illustrate the expected recovery of useful function in the transplant, using the best estimates for utility and probability that exist. Results: Our model revealed that when the probability of achieving a good result, graded as Chen level one or two is greater than 73%, transplantation is preferred over no transplantation. The decision is sensitive to the probability of major complications and the utility of a transplanted limb with minimal function. Conclusions: The results of this analysis show that under some circumstances given a high probability of satisfactory functional recovery, unilateral hand transplantation can be justified. PMID:28149213

  14. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  15. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

    2007-01-01

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

  16. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

    2007-08-01

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

  17. Does a reactor need a safety backfit. Case study on communicating decision and risk analysis information to managers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, R.V.; Ulvila, J.W.

    1988-06-01

    An approach to communicating decision and risk analysis findings to managers is illustrated in a real case context. This article consists essentially of a report prepared for senior managers of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to help them make a reactor safety decision. It illustrates the communication of decision analysis findings relating to technical risks, costs, and benefits in support of a major risk management decision: whether or not to require a safety backfit. Its focus is on the needs of decision makers, and it introduces some novel communication devices.

  18. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  19. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  20. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, George E.; Koser, John P.; Sato, Gaku

    2004-01-01

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Neural systems analysis of decision making during goal-directed navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y

    2012-01-01

    The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. A multi-criteria decision analysis of augmentative treatment of upper limps in persons with tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Snoek, Govert J.; van Til, Janine Astrid; van Rossum, Wouter; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2005-01-01

    This study supported the evaluation by a rehabilitation team of the performance of two treatment options that improve the arm-hand function in subjects with sixth cervical vertebra (C6) level Motor Group 2 tetraplegia. The analytic hierarchy process, a technique for multicriteria decision analysis,

  4. Nursing Faculty Decision Making about Best Practices in Test Construction, Item Analysis, and Revision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killingsworth, Erin Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    With the widespread use of classroom exams in nursing education there is a great need for research on current practices in nursing education regarding this form of assessment. The purpose of this study was to explore how nursing faculty members make decisions about using best practices in classroom test construction, item analysis, and revision in…

  5. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

  6. Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem T. Tran; C. Gregory Knight; Robert V. O' Neill; Elizabeth R. Smith; Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham

    2002-01-01

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams,...

  7. The adoption of total cost of ownership for sourcing decisions - a structural equations analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Anderson, James C.; Wynstra, Finn

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the adoption of total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to improve sourcing decisions. TCO can be seen as an application of activity based costing (ABC) that quantifies the costs that are involved in acquiring and using purchased goods or services. TCO supports purchasing

  8. The Influence of Social Norms in Consumer Decision Making: A Meta-Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melnyk, V.; Herpen, van E.; Trijp, van J.C.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although social norms can substantially impact consumer decision making, understanding of how the specification of the norm determines its impact is limited. This meta-analysis (200 independent studies, 659 effect sizes) examines how aspects of social norm specification determine the effect of norms

  9. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  10. Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

    2009-01-01

    Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

  11. Corporate Decision Making and SocioEnvironmental Investments In Brazil: An Analysis Based On Social Audits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luiz Bufoni

    2012-06-01

    indicate a significant correlation between the amount of environmental investments and variables such as age, level of education, professional training of employees and profit-sharing policies. However, no significant correlation between environmental investments and profitability was found. The analysis revealed a linkage between decisions to invest in the environment and social investments outside the firm.

  12. On the ethical analysis of value issues in public decision-making ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Journal of Philosophy ... What difference can such an ethical analysis make to public decision-making? ... value and ethical questions cannot be settled in a rational manner ... values and ethics are so intertwined with emotions and biases that one cannot take them seriously in ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  13. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  14. Measuring the Extent of European State Aid Control : An Econometric Analysis of the European Commission Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, E.; Ozbugday, F.C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the European Commission (EC) decisions on state aid control using data on 550 state aid cases approved by the EC between 1998 and 2009. More specifically, we measure the determinants of the duration of state aid, total budget of state aid and daily budget of state

  15. Measuring the Extent of European State Aid Control : An Econometric Analysis of the European Commission Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, E.; Ozbugday, F.C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the European Commission (EC) decisions on state aid control using data on 550 state aid cases approved by the EC between 1998 and 2009. More specifically, we measure the determinants of the duration of state aid, total budget of state aid and daily budget of state

  16. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: an analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957 up to and including 2004. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions under Articles 81, 82, and 86 of the European Community

  17. Cost-utility analysis of antihypertensive medications in Nigeria: a decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekwunife Obinna Ikechukwu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many drugs are available for control of hypertension and its sequels in Nigeria but some are not affordable for majority of the populace. This serious pharmacoeconomic question has to be answered by the nation’s health economists. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of drugs from 4 classes of antihypertensive medications commonly used in Nigeria in management of hypertension without compelling indication to use a particular antihypertensive drug. Methods The study employed decision analytic modeling. Interventions were obtained from a meta-analysis. The Markov process model calculated clinical outcomes and costs during a life cycle of 30 years of 1000 hypertensive patients stratified by 3 cardiovascular risk groups, under the alternative intervention scenarios. Quality adjusted life year (QALY was used to quantify clinical outcome. The average cost of treatment for the 1000 patient was tracked over the Markov cycle model of the alternative interventions and results were presented in 2010 US Dollars. Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and results presented as cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI and expected value of parameter perfect information (EVPPI analyses were also conducted for the hypothetical population. Results Thiazide diuretic was the most cost-effective option across the 3 cardiovascular risk groups. Calcium channel blocker was the second best for Moderate risk and high risk with a willingness to pay of at least 2000$/QALY. The result was robust since it was insensitive to the parameters alteration. Conclusions The result of this study showed that thiazide diuretic followed by calcium channel blocker could be a feasible strategy in order to ensure that patients in Nigeria with hypertension are better controlled.

  18. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  19. PROMETHEE Method and Sensitivity Analysis in the Software Application for the Support of Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Moldrik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available PROMETHEE is one of methods, which fall into multi-criteria analysis (MCA. The MCA, as the name itself indicates, deals with the evaluation of particular variants according to several criteria. Developed software application (MCA8 for the support of multi-criteria decision-making was upgraded about PROMETHEE method and a graphic tool, which enables the execution of the sensitivity analysis. This analysis is used to ascertain how a given model output depends upon the input parameters. The MCA8 software application with mentioned graphic upgrade was developed for purposes of solving multi-criteria decision tasks. In the MCA8 is possible to perform sensitivity analysis by a simple form – through column graphs. We can change criteria significances (weights in these column graphs directly and watch the changes of the order of variants immediately.

  20. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I.

    1997-09-01

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

  1. BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS IN U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATORY DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Easter, K. William; Archibald, Sandra O.

    1998-01-01

    As the number and cost of environmental regulations have increased over the last thirty years, the regulated community, taxpayers, and policy makers have begun to demand that the benefits of regulations justify their costs. The use of benefit-cost analysis as an integral part of developing new regulations is increasing and the demands and expectations being placed on the method have expanded. Although benefit-cost analysis is expected to play an even greater role in environmental decision mak...

  2. Design and optimization of a ground water monitoring system using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta, D.; Gupta, A.D.; Ramnarong, V.

    1998-12-31

    A GIS-based methodology has been developed to design a ground water monitoring system and implemented for a selected area in Mae-Klong River Basin, Thailand. A multicriteria decision-making analysis has been performed to optimize the network system based on major criteria which govern the monitoring network design such as minimization of cost of construction, reduction of kriging standard deviations, etc. The methodology developed in this study is a new approach to designing monitoring networks which can be used for any site considering site-specific aspects. It makes it possible to choose the best monitoring network from various alternatives based on the prioritization of decision factors.

  3. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  4. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    safer systems. However, the decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies.

  5. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies

  6. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  7. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  8. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongoh Valerie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

  9. Health versus money. Value judgments in the perspective of decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M S

    1983-01-01

    An important, but largely uninvestigated, value trade-off balances marginal nonhealth consumption against marginal medical care. Benefit-cost analysts have traditionally, if not fully satisfactorily, dealt with this issue by valuing health gains by their effects on productivity. Cost-effectiveness analysts compare monetary and health effects and leave their relative valuations to decision makers. A decision-analytic model using the satisfaction or utility gained from nonhealth consumption and the level of health enables one to calculate willingness to pay--a theoretically superior way of assigning monetary values to effects for benefit-cost analysis-and to determine minimally acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios. Examples show how a decision-analytic model of utility can differentiate medical actions so essential that failure to take them would be considered negligent from actions so expensive as to be unjustifiable, and can help to determine optimal legal arrangements for compensation for medical malpractice.

  10. OPTIMAL BUSINESS DECISION SYSTEM FOR MULTINATIONALS: A MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS OF SELECTED MANUFACTURING FIRMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oforegbunam Thaddeus Ebiringa

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional MIS has been made more effective through the integration of organization, human andtechnology factors into a decision matrix. The study is motivated by the need to find an optimal mixof interactive factors that will optimize the result of decision to apply ICT to manufacturingprocesses. The study used Factor analysis model based on the sampled opinion of forty (40operations/production managers and two thousand (2000 production line workers of three leadingmanufacturing firms: Uniliver Plc., PZ Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc operating in Aba IndustrialEstate of Nigeria. The results shows that a progressive mixed factor loading matrix, based on thepreferred ordered importance of resources factors in the formulation, implementation, monitoring,control and evaluation of ICT projects of the selected firms led to an average capability improvementof 0.764 in decision efficiency. This is considered strategic for achieving balanced corporate growthand development.

  11. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Mladineo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

  12. Duopoly Market Analysis within One-Shot Decision Framework with Asymmetric Possibilistic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peijun Guo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a newly emerging duopoly market with a short life cycle is analyzed. The partially known information of market is characterized by the possibility distribution of the parameter in the demand function. Since the life cycle of the new product is short, how many products should be produced by two rival firms is a typical one-shot decision problem. Within the one-shot decision framework, the possibilistic Cournot equilibrium is obtained for the optimal production level of each firm in a duopoly market with asymmetrical possibilistic information. The analysis results show that the proposed approaches are reasonable for one-shot decision problems, which are extensively encountered in business and economics.

  13. The utility of environmental exergy analysis for decision making in energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, Adam P.; Edwards, Chris F.

    2013-01-01

    The analysis framework discussed and employed in this paper utilizes the recent recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy to provide a fundamental basis for valuing environmental interactions independent from their secondary impacts. The framework is comprised of two separate components: (1) environmental exergy analysis and (2) anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. Environmental exergy analysis is based on fundamental thermodynamic principles and analysis techniques. It extends the principles of technical exergy analysis to the environment in order to quantify the location, magnitudes, and types of environmental impact—state change, alteration of natural transfers, and destruction change. Anthropocentric sensitivity analysis is based on the concepts of anthropocentric value and anthropocentric sensitivity. It enables the results of environmental exergy analysis to be interpreted for decision making, but at the expense of introducing some subjectivity into the framework. A key attribute of the framework is its ability to evaluate the environmental performance of energy systems on a level playing field, regardless of the specifics of the systems—i.e., resources consumed, products and by-products produced, or system size and time scale. The utility of the analysis framework for decision making is demonstrated in this paper through application to three example energy systems. - Highlights: ► Utilizes the recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy. ► Combines environmental exergy analysis and anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. ► Evaluates/compares environmental performance of systems on a level playing field. ► Independence from the system specifics—resources, by-products, sizes, time scales. ► Utility for decision making is demonstrated using real and notional energy systems

  14. Applying Recursive Sensitivity Analysis to Multi-Criteria Decision Models to Reduce Bias in Defense Cyber Engineering Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-28

    techniques such as regression analysis, correlation, and multicollinearity assessment to identify the change and error on the input to the model...between many of the independent or predictor variables, the issue of multicollinearity may arise [18]. VII. SUMMARY Accurate decisions concerning

  15. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja eSimon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  16. INTEGRATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS INTO DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT FOR URBAN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niksa Jajac

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban road infrastructure management deals with complex decision making process. There are several reasons for a complexity such as: multi-disciplinarity, lots of participants, huge quantity of information, limited budget, conflict goals and criteria. These facts indicate that decision making processes in urban road infrastructure management belong to ill-defined problems. In order to cope with such complexity and to help managers during decision making processes this research proposes an application of multicriteria methods. Therefore, a generic concept of decision support for urban road infrastructure management based on multicriteria analysis is proposed. Three multicriteria methods: AHP, SAW and PROMETHHE, in a combination with 0-1 programming are used. The main advantage of an application of multicriteria analysis is that all stakeholders could be objectively included into decision process. Therefore, setting up of criteria weights involves opinions from all stakeholders’ groups (stakeholders are divided into three characteristic groups. Evaluation of criteria importance (weights is based on three sets of opinions processed by Analytic Hierarchic Processing (AHP method. Three sets of criteria are then processed by Simple Additive Weighting (SAW method resulting in a final set of criteria weights. By using SAW method, relative importance of opinions of all three stakeholders’ groups is introduced. Collected data are then processed by PROMETHEE multicriteria methods. Proposed decision support concept is validated on the problem of improvement of one part of an urban road infrastructure system for a large urban area of town of Split. The concept is efficiently applied on several problems regarding parking garages: location selection, sub-project ranking, definition of an investment strategy.

  17. Role of pharmacoeconomic analysis in R&D decision making: when, where, how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Paul

    2005-01-01

    Pharmacoeconomics is vitally important to drug manufacturers in terms of communicating to external decision-makers (payers, prescribers, patients) the value of their products, achieving regulatory and reimbursement approval and contributing to commercial success. Since development of new drugs is long, costly and risky, and decisions must be made how to allocate considerable research and development (R&D) resources, pharmacoeconomics also has an essential role informing internal decision-making (within a company) during drug development. The use of pharmacoeconomics in early development phases is likely to enhance the efficiency of R&D resource use and also provide a solid foundation for communicating product value to external decision-makers further downstream, increasing the likelihood of regulatory (reimbursement) approval and commercial success. This paper puts the case for use of pharmacoeconomic analyses earlier in the development process and outlines five techniques (clinical trial simulation [CTS], option pricing [OP], investment appraisal [IA], threshold analysis [TA] and value of information [VOI] analysis) that can provide useful input into the design of clinical development programmes, portfolio management and optimal pricing strategy. CTS can estimate efficacy and tolerability profiles before clinical data are available. OP can show the value of different clinical programme designs, sequencing of studies and stop decisions. IA can compare expected net present value (NPV) of different product profiles or study designs. TA can be used to understand development drug profile requirements given partial data. VOI can assist risk management by quantifying uncertainty and assessing the economic viability of gathering further information on the development drug. No amount of pharmacoeconomic data can make a bad drug good; what it can do is enhance the drug developers understanding of the characteristics of that drug. Decision-making, in light of this

  18. Evaluation of SOVAT: an OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotch, Matthew; Parmanto, Bambang; Monaco, Valerie

    2008-06-09

    Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA) involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture.On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT) currently used by many public health professionals. SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS"). Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (alpha = .01) from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p OLAP-GIS decision support systems as a valuable tool for CHA data analysis.

  19. Evaluation of SOVAT: An OLAP-GIS decision support system for community health assessment data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parmanto Bambang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Data analysis in community health assessment (CHA involves the collection, integration, and analysis of large numerical and spatial data sets in order to identify health priorities. Geographic Information Systems (GIS enable for management and analysis using spatial data, but have limitations in performing analysis of numerical data because of its traditional database architecture. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP is a multidimensional datawarehouse designed to facilitate querying of large numerical data. Coupling the spatial capabilities of GIS with the numerical analysis of OLAP, might enhance CHA data analysis. OLAP-GIS systems have been developed by university researchers and corporations, yet their potential for CHA data analysis is not well understood. To evaluate the potential of an OLAP-GIS decision support system for CHA problem solving, we compared OLAP-GIS to the standard information technology (IT currently used by many public health professionals. Methods SOVAT, an OLAP-GIS decision support system developed at the University of Pittsburgh, was compared against current IT for data analysis for CHA. For this study, current IT was considered the combined use of SPSS and GIS ("SPSS-GIS". Graduate students, researchers, and faculty in the health sciences at the University of Pittsburgh were recruited. Each round consisted of: an instructional video of the system being evaluated, two practice tasks, five assessment tasks, and one post-study questionnaire. Objective and subjective measurement included: task completion time, success in answering the tasks, and system satisfaction. Results Thirteen individuals participated. Inferential statistics were analyzed using linear mixed model analysis. SOVAT was statistically significant (α = .01 from SPSS-GIS for satisfaction and time (p Conclusion Using SOVAT, tasks were completed more efficiently, with a higher rate of success, and with greater satisfaction, than the

  20. Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2008-07-01

    Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

  1. Exploratory Use of Decision Tree Analysis in Classification of Outcome in Hypoxic-Ischemic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, Thanh G; Chen, Jian; Singhal, Shaloo; Ma, Henry; Clissold, Benjamin B; Ly, John; Beare, Richard

    2018-01-01

    Prognostication following hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (brain injury) is important for clinical management. The aim of this exploratory study is to use a decision tree model to find clinical and MRI associates of severe disability and death in this condition. We evaluate clinical model and then the added value of MRI data. The inclusion criteria were as follows: age ≥17 years, cardio-respiratory arrest, and coma on admission (2003-2011). Decision tree analysis was used to find clinical [Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), features about cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, age, and sex] and MRI (infarct volume) associates of severe disability and death. We used the area under the ROC (auROC) to determine accuracy of model. There were 41 (63.7% males) patients having MRI imaging with the average age 51.5 ± 18.9 years old. The decision trees showed that infarct volume and age were important factors for discrimination between mild to moderate disability and severe disability and death at day 0 and day 2. The auROC for this model was 0.94 (95% CI 0.82-1.00). At day 7, GCS value was the only predictor; the auROC was 0.96 (95% CI 0.86-1.00). Our findings provide proof of concept for further exploration of the role of MR imaging and decision tree analysis in the early prognostication of hypoxic ischemic brain injury.

  2. Risky decision making in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkers, Tycho J; Popma, Arne; Agelink van Rentergem, Joost A; Bexkens, Anika; Huizenga, Hilde M

    2016-04-01

    ADHD has been associated with various forms of risky real life decision making, for example risky driving, unsafe sex and substance abuse. However, results from laboratory studies on decision making deficits in ADHD have been inconsistent, probably because of between study differences. We therefore performed a meta-regression analysis in which 37 studies (n ADHD=1175; n Control=1222) were included, containing 52 effect sizes. The overall analysis yielded a small to medium effect size (standardized mean difference=.36, pdecision making than control groups. There was a trend for a moderating influence of co-morbid Disruptive Behavior Disorders (DBD): studies including more participants with co-morbid DBD had larger effect sizes. No moderating influence of co-morbid internalizing disorders, age or task explicitness was found. These results indicate that ADHD is related to increased risky decision making in laboratory settings, which tended to be more pronounced if ADHD is accompanied by DBD. We therefore argue that risky decision making should have a more prominent role in research on the neuropsychological and -biological mechanisms of ADHD, which can be useful in ADHD assessment and intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Nicotine replacement therapy decision based on fuzzy multi-criteria analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarmudi, Zamali; Matmali, Norfazillah; Abdullah, Mohd Lazim

    2017-08-01

    It has been observed that Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) is one of the alternatives to control and reduce smoking addiction among smokers. Since the decision to choose the best NRT alternative involves uncertainty, ambiguity factors and diverse input datasets, thus, this paper proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria analysis (FMA) to overcome these issues. It focuses on how the fuzzy approach can unify the diversity of datasets based on NRT's decision-making problem. The analysis done employed the advantage of the cost-benefit criterion to unify the mixture of dataset input. The performance matrix was utilised to derive the performance scores. An empirical example regarding the NRT's decision-making problem was employed to illustrate the proposed approach. Based on the calculations, this analytical approach was found to be highly beneficial in terms of usability. It was also very applicable and efficient in dealing with the mixture of input datasets. Hence, the decision-making process can easily be used by experts and patients who are interested to join the therapy/cessation program.

  4. [Application of evidence based medicine to the individual patient: the role of decision analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housset, B; Junod, A F

    2003-11-01

    The objective of evidence based medicine (EBM) is to contribute to medical decision making by providing the best possible information in terms of validity and relevance. This allows evaluation in a specific manner of the benefits and risks of a decision. The limitations and hazards of this approach are discussed in relation to a clinical case where the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism was under consideration. The individual details and the limited availability of some technical procedures illustrate the need to adapt the data of EBM to the circumstances. The choice between two diagnostic tests (d-dimers and ultrasound of the legs) and their optimal timing is analysed with integration of the consequences for the patient of the treatments proposed. This allows discussion of the concept of utility and the use of sensitivity analysis. If EBM is the cornerstone of rational and explicit practise it should also allow for the constraints of real life. Decision analysis, which depends on the same critical demands as EBM but can also take account of the individual features of each patient and test the robustness of a decision, gives a unique opportunity reconcile rigorous reasoning with individualisation of management.

  5. An Analytic Hierarchy Process Analysis: Application to Subscriber Retention Decisions in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adebiyi Sulaimon Olanrewaju

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has brought a new challenge for mobile operators. This study investigates the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in customer retention decisions in the Nigerian telecommunication industry using a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were obtained through questionnaires administered to 480 mobile telecommunications subscribers in six tertiary institutions located in Lagos State, Nigeria. These educational institutions were chosen using a multistage sampling technique. Of 438 questionnaires received from subscribers, 408 were valid. Based on this sample data an AHP model was built to assess the determinants of customer retention decisions. Next, eigen values, an eigen vector and maximum lambda (λMax were obtained using the AHP analysis for the matrices. This analysis shows that customers considered call quality as the important in the retention decision. We conclude that AHP is a meaningful tool for determining what motivates retention decisions, that can help network operators formulate effective customer retention strategies.

  6. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Balqis M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

  7. Using Cognitive Work Analysis to fit decision support tools to nurse managers' work flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effken, Judith A; Brewer, Barbara B; Logue, Melanie D; Gephart, Sheila M; Verran, Joyce A

    2011-10-01

    To better understand the environmental constraints on nurse managers that impact their need for and use of decision support tools, we conducted a Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA). A complete CWA includes system analyses at five levels: work domain, decision-making procedures, decision-making strategies, social organization/collaboration, and worker skill level. Here we describe the results of the Work Domain Analysis (WDA) portion in detail then integrate the WDA with other portions of the CWA, reported previously, to generate a more complete picture of the nurse manager's work domain. Data for the WDA were obtained from semi-structured interviews with nurse managers, division directors, CNOs, and other managers (n = 20) on 10 patient care units in three Arizona hospitals. The WDA described the nurse manager's environment in terms of the constraints it imposes on the nurse manager's ability to achieve targeted outcomes through organizational goals and priorities, functions, processes, as well as work objects and resources (e.g., people, equipment, technology, and data). Constraints were identified and summarized through qualitative thematic analysis. The results highlight the competing priorities, and external and internal constraints that today's nurse managers must satisfy as they try to improve quality and safety outcomes on their units. Nurse managers receive a great deal of data, much in electronic format. Although dashboards were perceived as helpful because they integrated some data elements, no decision support tools were available to help nurse managers with planning or answering "what if" questions. The results suggest both the need for additional decision support to manage the growing complexity of the environment, and the constraints the environment places on the design of that technology if it is to be effective. Limitations of the study include the small homogeneous sample and the reliance on interview data targeting safety and quality. Copyright © 2011

  8. GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Lisa H

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. Methods GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640. Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. Results 335 (52% GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76% provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%, other infections (24% and depressive disorders (21%. The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. Conclusion GPs feel that prescribing medicines for

  9. Parent-son decision-making about human papillomavirus vaccination: a qualitative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andreia B

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Licensed for use in males in 2009, Human Papillomavirus (HPV vaccination rates in adolescent males are extremely low. Literature on HPV vaccination focuses on females, adult males, or parents of adolescent males, without including adolescent males or the dynamics of the parent-son interaction that may influence vaccine decision-making. The purpose of this paper is to examine the decision-making process of parent-son dyads when deciding whether or not to get vaccinated against HPV. Methods Twenty-one adolescent males (ages 13–17, with no previous HPV vaccination, and their parents/guardians were recruited from adolescent primary care clinics serving low to middle income families in a large Midwestern city. Dyad members participated in separate semi-structured interviews assessing the relative role of the parent and son in the decision regarding HPV vaccination. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using inductive content analysis. Results Parents and sons focused on protection as a reason for vaccination; parents felt a need to protect their child, while sons wanted to protect their own health. Parents and sons commonly misinterpreted the information about the vaccine. Sons were concerned about an injection in the penis, while some parents and sons thought the vaccine would protect them against other sexually transmitted infections including Herpes, Gonorrhea, and HIV. Parents and sons recalled that the vaccine prevented genital warts rather than cancer. The vaccine decision-making process was rapid and dynamic, including an initial reaction to the recommendation for HPV vaccine, discussion between parent and son, and the final vaccine decision. Provider input was weighed in instances of initial disagreement. Many boys felt that this was the first health care decision that they had been involved in. Dyads which reported shared decision-making were more likely to openly communicate about sexual issues than those

  10. Effects of stress on decisions under uncertainty: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starcke, Katrin; Brand, Matthias

    2016-09-01

    [Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 142(9) of Psychological Bulletin (see record 2016-39486-001). It should have been reported that the inverted u-shaped relationship between cortisol stress responses and decision-making performance was only observed in female, but not in male participants as suggested by the study by van den Bos, Harteveld, and Stoop (2009). Corrected versions of the affected sentences are provided.] The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to quantify the effects that stress has on decisions made under uncertainty. We hypothesized that stress increases reward seeking and risk taking through alterations of dopamine firing rates and reduces executive control by hindering optimal prefrontal cortex functioning. In certain decision situations, increased reward seeking and risk taking is dysfunctional, whereas in others, this is not the case. We also assumed that the type of stressor plays a role. In addition, moderating variables are analyzed, such as the hormonal stress response, the time between stress onset and decisions, and the participants' age and gender. We included studies in the meta-analysis that investigated decision making after a laboratory stress-induction versus a control condition (k = 32 datasets, N = 1829 participants). A random-effects model revealed that overall, stress conditions lead to decisions that can be described as more disadvantageous, more reward seeking, and more risk taking than nonstress conditions (d = .17). In those situations in which increased reward seeking and risk taking is disadvantageous, stress had significant effects (d = .26), whereas in other situations, no effects were observed (d = .01). Effects were observed under processive stressors (d = .19), but not under systemic ones (d = .09). Moderation analyses did not reveal any significant results. We concluded that stress deteriorates overall decision-making performance through the mechanisms proposed. The effects differ

  11. Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

    2017-06-01

    For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Analysis of factors influencing decision making of Czech households when purchasing clothes and footwear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Toufarová

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses buying behaviour of Czech households on the market with footwear and cloths. It aims at factors influ, encing this behaviour, e.g. price, brand, quality, product attributes, habits, price reductions, advertisement, innovation and word-of-mauth. Primary data were obtained via survey of 727 Czech households by staff of the Department of Marketing and Trade, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno. The paper provides results of correlation analysis and factor analysis. When making purchase decisions, households identify attributes and parameters of clothes and footwear as the most important factor. Due to factor analysis, factors were reduced into four comprehensive groups.

  13. Frame-based safety analysis approach for decision-based errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Chin-Feng; Yihb, Swu

    1997-01-01

    A frame-based approach is proposed to analyze decision-based errors made by automatic controllers or human operators due to erroneous reference frames. An integrated framework, Two Frame Model (TFM), is first proposed to model the dynamic interaction between the physical process and the decision-making process. Two important issues, consistency and competing processes, are raised. Consistency between the physical and logic frames makes a TFM-based system work properly. Loss of consistency refers to the failure mode that the logic frame does not accurately reflect the state of the controlled processes. Once such failure occurs, hazards may arise. Among potential hazards, the competing effect between the controller and the controlled process is the most severe one, which may jeopardize a defense-in-depth design. When the logic and physical frames are inconsistent, conventional safety analysis techniques are inadequate. We propose Frame-based Fault Tree; Analysis (FFTA) and Frame-based Event Tree Analysis (FETA) under TFM to deduce the context for decision errors and to separately generate the evolution of the logical frame as opposed to that of the physical frame. This multi-dimensional analysis approach, different from the conventional correctness-centred approach, provides a panoramic view in scenario generation. Case studies using the proposed techniques are also given to demonstrate their usage and feasibility

  14. Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M; Feigh, Karen M

    2017-06-01

    The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity . The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design.

  15. On the suitability of fast and frugal heuristics for designing values clarification methods in patient decision aids: a critical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke

    2013-09-01

    Increasingly, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCMs) are being developed to support patients in making preference-sensitive health-care decisions. Many VCMs encourage extensive deliberation about options, without solid theoretical or empirical evidence showing that deliberation is advantageous. Research suggests that simple, fast and frugal heuristic decision strategies sometimes result in better judgments and decisions. Durand et al. have developed two fast and frugal heuristic-based VCMs. To critically analyse the suitability of the 'take the best' (TTB) and 'tallying' fast and frugal heuristics in the context of patient decision making. Analysis of the structural similarities between the environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have been proven successful and the context of patient decision making and of the potential of these heuristic decision processes to support patient decision making. The specific nature of patient preference-sensitive decision making does not seem to resemble environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have proven successful. Encouraging patients to consider less rather than more relevant information potentially even deteriorates their values clarification process. Values clarification methods promoting the use of more intuitive decision strategies may sometimes be more effective. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend further theoretical thinking about the expected value of such heuristics and of other more intuitive decision strategies in this context, as well as empirical assessments of the mechanisms by which inducing such decision strategies may impact the quality and outcome of values clarification. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Shared Decision-Making in Oncology - A Qualitative Analysis of Healthcare Providers' Views on Current Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerichs, Wiebke; Hahlweg, Pola; Müller, Evamaria; Adis, Christine; Scholl, Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    Despite an increased awareness of shared decision-making (SDM) and its prominent position on the health policy agenda, its implementation in routine care remains a challenge in Germany. In order to overcome this challenge, it is important to understand healthcare providers' views regarding SDM and to take their perspectives and opinions into account in the development of an implementation program. The present study aimed at exploring a) the attitudes of different healthcare providers regarding SDM in oncology and b) their experiences with treatment decisions in daily practice. A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and individual interviews with different healthcare providers at the University Cancer Center Hamburg, Germany. Focus groups and interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed using conventional content analysis and descriptive statistics. N = 4 focus groups with a total of N = 25 participants and N = 17 individual interviews were conducted. Attitudes regarding SDM varied greatly between the different participants, especially concerning the definition of SDM, the attitude towards the degree of patient involvement in decision-making and assumptions about when SDM should take place. Experiences on how treatment decisions are currently made varied. Negative experiences included time and structural constraints, and a lack of (multidisciplinary) communication. Positive experiences comprised informed patients, involvement of relatives and a good physician-patient relationship. The results show that German healthcare providers in oncology have a range of attitudes that currently function as barriers towards the implementation of SDM. Also, their experiences on how decision-making is currently done reveal difficulties in actively involving patients in decision-making processes. It will be crucial to take these attitudes and experiences seriously and to subsequently disentangle existing misconceptions in future implementation programs.

  17. Analysis of Pedestrian Gap Acceptance and Crossing Decision in Kuala Lumpur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Nor Siti Naquiyah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrians are most vulnerable of all road users. This research aims to investigate and model pedestrian road crossing behaviour at crossing facilities. In particular, they have two aspects of pedestrians crossing behaviour are examined, namely the size of traffic gaps acceptance by pedestrians and the decision of pedestrians either to cross the road or not. A fields survey was carried out at six crossing facilities which from a zebra crossing at midblock. In this survey, the data were recorded in real traffic condition using video recorder. Determine the associations between characteristics of pedestrians, crossing facilities and vehicular traffic through on-site observations of pedestrian behaviour. This data will analysis using statistical analysis which is multiple regression and binary logit regression method. It is hope that through this research, the model of pedestrian gap acceptance and pedestrian crossing decision can be reached and what are the indicators that pedestrians look for when accepting gaps to cross the road.

  18. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Extended warranties, maintenance service and lease contracts modeling and analysis for decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Murthy, D N Prabhakar

    2014-01-01

    Serving to unify the existing literature on extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, this book also presents a unique perspective on the topic focussed on cost analysis and decision-making from the perspectives of the parties involved. Using a game theoretic approach together with mathematical modelling, results are presented in an integrated manner with key topics that require further research highlighted in order to serve as a starting point for researchers (engineers and statisticians) who are interested in doing further work in these areas. Designed to assist practitioners (managers, engineers, applied statisticians) who are involved with extended warranties, maintenance service contracts and lease contracts, the book provides them with the models and techniques needed for proper cost analysis and effective decision-making. The book is also suitable for use as a reference text in industrial engineering, applied statistics, operations research and management.

  20. Towards for Analyzing Alternatives of Interaction Design Based on Verbal Decision Analysis of User Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marília Soares Mendes

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In domains (as digital TV, smart home, and tangible interfaces that represent a new paradigm of interactivity, the decision of the most appropriate interaction design solution is a challenge. HCI researchers have promoted in their works the validation of design alternative solutions with users before producing the final solution. User experience with technology is a subject that has also gained ground in these works in order to analyze the appropriate solution(s. Following this concept, a study was accomplished under the objective of finding a better interaction solution for an application of mobile TV. Three executable applications of mobile TV prototypes were built. A Verbal Decision Analysis model was applied on the investigations for the favorite characteristics in each prototype based on the user’s experience and their intentions of use. This model led a performance of a qualitative analysis which objectified the design of a new prototype.

  1. Using decision analysis to assess comparative clinical efficacy of surgical treatment of unstable ankle fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelson, James D

    2013-11-01

    The development of a robust treatment algorithm for ankle fractures based on well-established stability criteria has been shown to be prognostic with respect to treatment and outcomes. In parallel with the development of improved understanding of the biomechanical rationale of ankle fracture treatment has been an increased emphasis on assessing the effectiveness of medical and surgical interventions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of using decision analysis in the assessment of the cost effectiveness of operative treatment of ankle fractures based on the existing clinical data in the literature. Using the data obtained from a previous structured review of the ankle fracture literature, decision analysis trees were constructed using standard software. The decision nodes for the trees were based on ankle fracture stability criteria previously published. The outcomes were assessed by calculated Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) assigned to achieving normal ankle function, developing posttraumatic arthritis, or sustaining a postoperative infection. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken by varying the patient's age, incidence of arthritis, and incidence or infection. Decision analysis trees captured the essential aspects of clinical decision making in ankle fracture treatment in a clinically useful manner. In general, stable fractures yielded better outcomes with nonoperative treatment, whereas unstable fractures had better outcomes with surgery. These were consistent results over a wide range of postoperative infection rates. Varying the age of the patient did not qualitatively change the results. Between the ages of 30 and 80 years, surgery yielded higher expected QALYs than nonoperative care for unstable fractures, and generated lower QALYs than nonoperative care for stable fractures. Using local cost estimates for operative and nonoperative treatment, the incremental cost of surgery for unstable fractures was less than $40,000 per QALY (the

  2. U-Form vs. M-Form: How to Understand Decision Autonomy Under Healthcare Decentralization? Comment on "Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Arturo Vargas

    2016-06-07

    For more than three decades healthcare decentralization has been promoted in developing countries as a way of improving the financing and delivery of public healthcare. Decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization would determine the role and scope of responsibility of local authorities. Jalal Mohammed, Nicola North, and Toni Ashton analyze decision autonomy within decentralized services in Fiji. They conclude that the narrow decision space allowed to local entities might have limited the benefits of decentralization on users and providers. To discuss the costs and benefits of healthcare decentralization this paper uses the U-form and M-form typology to further illustrate the role of decision autonomy under healthcare decentralization. This paper argues that when evaluating healthcare decentralization, it is important to determine whether the benefits from decentralization are greater than its costs. The U-form and M-form framework is proposed as a useful typology to evaluate different types of institutional arrangements under healthcare decentralization. Under this model, the more decentralized organizational form (M-form) is superior if the benefits from flexibility exceed the costs of duplication and the more centralized organizational form (U-form) is superior if the savings from economies of scale outweigh the costly decision-making process from the center to the regions. Budgetary and financial autonomy and effective mechanisms to maintain local governments accountable for their spending behavior are key decision autonomy variables that could sway the cost-benefit analysis of healthcare decentralization. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  3. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.; Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D.

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  4. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mansour, Fouad; Kozuh, Mitja

    2007-01-01

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  5. Analysis on Dynamic Decision-Making Model of the Enterprise Technological Innovation Investment under Uncertain Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Long

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the environment of fuzzy factors including the return of market, performance of product, and the demanding level of market, we use the method of dynamic programming and establish the model of investment decision, in technology innovation project of enterprise, based on the dynamic programming. Analysis of the influence caused by the changes of fuzzy uncertainty factors to technological innovation project investment of enterprise.

  6. Decision making model design for antivirus software selection using Factor Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process

    OpenAIRE

    Nurhayati Ai; Gautama Aditya; Naseer Muchammad

    2018-01-01

    Virus spread increase significantly through the internet in 2017. One of the protection method is using antivirus software. The wide variety of antivirus software in the market tends to creating confusion among consumer. Selecting the right antivirus according to their needs has become difficult. This is the reason we conduct our research. We formulate a decision making model for antivirus software consumer. The model is constructed by using factor analysis and AHP method. First we spread que...

  7. GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Landfill Site Selection in AL-HashimyahQadaa

    OpenAIRE

    Alanbari, Mohammad Ali; Al-Ansari, Nadhir; Jasim, Hadeel Kareem

    2014-01-01

    Waste management system is not well regulated in Iraq. Despite the fact that there are various techniques used for solid waste disposal, landfill is the most common mode for the disposal of solid waste in Iraq, landfill site selection criteria is quite complex process and it depends on several regulation and factors. In this study landfill site selection is performed by using Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Geographic Information System (GIS) for the Al-Hashimyahqadaa. Existing lan...

  8. Economic Recession, Job Vulnerability, and Tourism Decision Making: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheodorou, A.; Pappas, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    Occupational uncertainty has a considerable effect upon consumer decisions during a recession, especially with respect to discretionary products and services such as tourism. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the study examines the complex relations among job vulnerability, disposable income for tourism, marketing activities, and price and quality issues for Greek holiday makers returning from their vacations. The article also compares QCA with the two dominant linear methods of a...

  9. Non-compliance with a postmastectomy radiotherapy guideline: Decision tree and cause analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Amir R; Gill, Hans; Åhlfeldt, Hans; Shahsavar, Nosrat

    2008-01-01

    Background: The guideline for postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT), which is prescribed to reduce recurrence of breast cancer in the chest wall and improve overall survival, is not always followed. Identifying and extracting important patterns of non-compliance are crucial in maintaining the quality of care in Oncology. Methods: Analysis of 759 patients with malignant breast cancer using decision tree induction (DTI) found patterns of non-compliance with the guideline. The PMRT guideline was us...

  10. Plastic Surgeon Expertise in Predicting Breast Reconstruction Outcomes for Patient Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement S. Sun, MS

    2013-11-01

    Conclusions: The use of individual plastic surgeon–elicited probability information is not encouraged unless the individual’s prediction skill has been evaluated. In the absence of this information, a group consensus on the probability of outcomes is preferred. Without a large evidence base for calculating probabilities, estimates assessed from a group of plastic surgeons may be acceptable for purposes of breast reconstruction decision analysis.

  11. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

  12. The impact of DECISION+2 on patient intention to engage in shared decision making: secondary analysis of a multicentre clustered randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couët, Nicolas; Labrecque, Michel; Robitaille, Hubert; Turcotte, Stéphane; Légaré, France

    2015-12-01

    Training health professionals in shared decision making (SDM) may influence their patients' intention to engage in SDM. To assess the impact of DECISION+2, a SDM training programme for family physicians about the use of antibiotics to treat acute respiratory infections (ARIs), on their patients' intention to engage in SDM in future consultations. Secondary analysis of a multicentre clustered randomized trial. Three hundred and fifty-nine patients consulting family physicians about an ARI in nine family practice teaching units (FPTUs). DECISION+2 (two-hour online tutorial, two-hour workshop, and decision support tools) was offered in the experimental group (five FPTUs, 162 physicians, 181 patients). Usual care was provided in the control group (four FPTUs, 108 physicians, 178 patients). Change in patients' intention scores (range -3 to +3) between pre- and post-consultation. The mean ± SD [median] scores of intention to engage in SDM were high in both study groups before consultation (DECISION+2 group: 1.4 ± 1.0 [1.7]; control group: 1.5 ± 1.1 [1.7]) and increased in both groups after consultation (DECISION+2 group: 2.1 ± 1.1 [2.7]; control group: 1.9 ± 1.2 [2.3]). Change of intention, classified as either increased, stable or decreased, was not statistically associated with the exposure to the DECISION+2 programme after adjusting for the cluster design (proportional odds ratio = 1.5; 95% confidence interval = 0.8-3.0). DECISION+2 had no significant impact on patients' intention to engage in SDM for choosing to use antibiotics or not to treat an ARI in future consultations. Patient-targeted interventions may be necessary to achieve this purpose. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. AN ANALYSIS ON THE DECISION MODEL OF SMART PLUS INSURANCE PRODUCT PURCHASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitry Primadona

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were 1 to analyze the decision model of Smart Plus insurance product purchase and 2 to determine the criteria, sub-criteria, and alternative priorities in Smart Plus purchase decision model. The methods utilized in the study included a survey and interview (in-depth interview by using an AHP analysis (Analytical Hierarchy Process and processing software of "Expert Choice". The result of the first analysis indicated the four marketing mixes that had been performed (Price, Product, Process, and Place; while the second one showed that the purchase of Smart Plus product is based on the factors with the level of interest as follow: benefit (36.3%, premium (35.7%, membership process (14.6%, and provider (13.4%. The result of the second analysis revealed the important sub-criteria including premium offer, additional benefits, membership card, and temporary certificate from the medical specialist.Keywords: AHP, life insurance, marketing mix, purchase decision

  14. Rough Neutrosophic Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Based on Grey Relational Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalyan Mondal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents rough netrosophic multiattribute decision making based on grey relational analysis. While the concept of neutrosophic sets is a powerful logic to deal with indeterminate and inconsistent data, the theory of rough neutrosophic sets is also a powerful mathematical tool to deal with incompleteness. The rating of all alternatives is expressed with the upper and lower approximation operator and the pair of neutrosophic sets which are characterized by truth-membership degree, indeterminacy-membership degree, and falsitymembership degree. Weight of each attribute is partially known to decision maker. We extend the neutrosophic grey relational analysis method to rough neutrosophic grey relational analysis method and apply it to multiattribute decision making problem. Information entropy method is used to obtain the partially known attribute weights. Accumulated geometric operator is defined to transform rough neutrosophic number (neutrosophic pair to single valued neutrosophic number. Neutrosophic grey relational coefficient is determined by using Hamming distance between each alternative to ideal rough neutrosophic estimates reliability solution and the ideal rough neutrosophic estimates un-reliability solution. Then rough neutrosophic relational degree is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  15. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

  16. Systems Analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bruen

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  17. Tracheostomy and invasive mechanical ventilation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: decision-making factors and survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Fumiharu

    2016-04-28

    Invasive and/or non-invasive mechanical ventilation are most important options of respiratory management in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We evaluated the frequency, clinical characteristics, decision-making factors about ventilation and survival analysis of 190 people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients from 1990 until 2013. Thirty-one percentage of patients underwent tracheostomy invasive ventilation with the rate increasing more than the past 20 years. The ratio of tracheostomy invasive ventilation in patients >65 years old was significantly increased after 2000 (25%) as compared to before (10%). After 2010, the standard use of non-invasive ventilation showed a tendency to reduce the frequency of tracheostomy invasive ventilation. Mechanical ventilation prolonged median survival (75 months in tracheostomy invasive ventilation, 43 months in non-invasive ventilation vs natural course, 32 months). The life-extending effects by tracheostomy invasive ventilation were longer in younger patients ≤65 years old at the time of ventilation support than in older patients. Presence of partners and care at home were associated with better survival. Following factors related to the decision to perform tracheostomy invasive ventilation: patients ≤65 years old: greater use of non-invasive ventilation: presence of a spouse: faster tracheostomy: higher progression rate; and preserved motor functions. No patients who underwent tracheostomy invasive ventilation died from a decision to withdraw mechanical ventilation. The present study provides factors related to decision-making process and survival after tracheostomy and help clinicians and family members to expand the knowledge about ventilation.

  18. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garfi, M.; Tondelli, S.; Bonoli, A.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  19. Differential impairments underlying decision making in anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa: a cognitive modeling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Trista Wai Sze; Ahn, Woo-Young; Bates, John E; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Guillaume, Sebastien; Redgrave, Graham W; Danner, Unna N; Courtet, Philippe

    2014-03-01

    This study examined the underlying processes of decision-making impairments in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). We deconstructed their performance on the widely used decision task, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) into cognitive, motivational, and response processes using cognitive modeling analysis. We hypothesized that IGT performance would be characterized by impaired memory functions and heightened punishment sensitivity in AN, and by elevated sensitivity to reward as opposed to punishment in BN. We analyzed trial-by-trial data of IGT obtained from 224 individuals: 94 individuals with AN, 63 with BN, and 67 healthy comparison individuals (HC). The prospect valence learning model was used to assess cognitive, motivational, and response processes underlying IGT performance. Individuals with AN showed marginally impaired IGT performance compared to HC. Their performance was characterized by impairments in memory functions. Individuals with BN showed significantly impaired IGT performance compared to HC. They showed greater relative sensitivity to gains as opposed to losses than HC. Memory functions in AN were positively correlated with body mass index. This study identified differential impairments underlying IGT performance in AN and BN. Findings suggest that impaired decision making in AN might involve impaired memory functions. Impaired decision making in BN might involve altered reward and punishment sensitivity. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision-making in a disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Jacques

    2013-04-01

    This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision-making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision-making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

  1. Finding the Most Preferred Decision-Making Unit in Data Envelopment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirin Mohammadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA evaluates the efficiency of the transformation of a decision-making unit’s (DMU’s inputs into its outputs. Finding the benchmarks of a DMU is one of the important purposes of DEA. The benchmarks of a DMU in DEA are obtained by solving some linear programming models. Currently, the obtained benchmarks are just found by using the information of the data of inputs and outputs without considering the decision-maker’s preferences. If the preferences of the decision-maker are available, it is very important to obtain the most preferred DMU as a benchmark of the under-assessment DMU. In this regard, we present an algorithm to find the most preferred DMU based on the utility function of decision-maker’s preferences by exploring some properties on that. The proposed method is constructed based on the projection of the gradient of the utility function on the production possibility set’s frontier.

  2. Application of decision tree technique to sensitivity analysis for results of radionuclide migration calculations. Research documents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Kunihiko; Makino, Hitoshi

    2005-03-01

    Uncertainties are always present in the parameters used for the nuclide migration analysis in the geological disposal system. These uncertainties affect the result of such analyses, e.g., and the identification of dominant nuclides. It is very important to identify the parameters causing the significant impact on the results, and to investigate the influence of identified parameters in order to recognize R and D items with respect to the development of geological disposal system and understanding of the system performance. In our study, the decision tree analysis technique was examined in the sensitivity analysis as a method for investigation of the influences of the parameters and for complement existing sensitivity analysis. As a result, results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation with parameter uncertainties could be distinguished with not only important parameters but also with their quantitative conditions (e.g., ranges of parameter values). Furthermore, information obtained from the decision tree analysis could be used 1) to categorize the results obtained from the nuclide migration analysis for a given parameter set, 2) to show prospective effect of reduction to parameter uncertainties on the results. (author)

  3. Effective Decision Maker-Scientist Engagement:Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis of California's Water System to Using Decision Scaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, A. M.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.; Wi, S.

    2016-12-01

    For nearly 2 years the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) has been working with the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass) to evaluate climate change vulnerabilities to the California State Water Project. Working cooperatively, the team has developed tools and methods to employ a decision scaling approach to CDWR's existing water system model (CalSim-II/CalLite 3.0). This presentation will discuss how and why this partnership came to be, the co-production model the team has developed to share expertise, the new understanding of the system that has been gained through the process, and current and future efforts to influence planning and investments based on the findings of the work. This cooperative decision-maker-with-scientist engagement is unique in that CDWR has not outsourced the application of the science to their systems, and instead has worked directly with UMass researchers to develop the process, produce results, and interpret findings. Further, CDWR staff has worked with UMass researchers to present results in ways that are more useable and actionable for decision-makers. As will be shown, many of these graphics allow the team to use the science differently to improve decision making.

  4. Treatment options for patients with acute myeloid leukemia with a matched sibling donor: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Lillian; Buckstein, Rena; Doyle, John J; Crump, Michael; Detsky, Allan S

    2003-02-01

    The role of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) in the consolidation of young adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with matched sibling donors (MSD) is controversial. Although BMT is associated with increased event free survival compared with intensive chemotherapy (CT) consolidation, BMT also is associated with increased treatment-related mortality and likely decreased quality of life and life expectancy in patients who do not develop recurrent disease. The authors used decision analysis to compare three strategies for maximizing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in patients with AML in first remission with an MSD: BMT All, BMT None (consolidation CT only), or BMT in high-risk patients, as defined by baseline cytogenetic testing (Test strategy). A second decision-analysis tree was then constructed that compared BMT with CT specifically for patients with intermediate cytogenetics. Using expected QALYs as the outcome measure, the Test, BMT All, and BMT None strategies were associated with 20.10 QALYs, 19.63 QALYs, and 18.38 QALYs, respectively. Thus, the Test strategy, with CT for low-risk patients and BMT for intermediate risk and high-risk patients, was expected to be the optimal strategy. In the intermediate cytogenetic decision analysis, although the expected QALY for BMT recipients was higher compared with CT recipients (19.78 QALYs vs. 18.75 QALYs), because of uncertainty in variable estimates, the optimal choice was less clear. CT consolidation is a reasonable option for patients with AML who have favorable cytogenetics, even if an MSD is available. This model provides a framework from which patients with AML and their physicians can make decisions about consolidation therapy. Copyright 2003 American Cancer Society.DOI 10.1002/cncr.11098

  5. A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

    2018-02-20

    We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

  6. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Generous

    Full Text Available The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  7. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  8. "Suffering" in palliative sedation: Conceptual Analysis and Implications for Decision-Making in Clinical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozzaro, Claudia; Schildmann, Jan

    2018-04-21

    Palliative sedation is an increasingly used and, simultaneously, challenging practice at the end of life. Many controversies associated with this therapy are rooted in implicit differences regarding the understanding of "suffering" as prerequisite for palliative sedation. The aim of this paper is to inform the current debates by a conceptual analysis of two different philosophical accounts of suffering, (1) the subjective and holistic concept and (2) the objective and gradual concept and by a clinical-ethical analysis of the implications of each account for decisions about palliative sedation. We will show that while the subjective and holistic account of suffering fits well with the holistic approach of palliative care, there are considerable challenges to justify limits to requests for palliative sedation. By contrast, the objective and gradual account fits well with the need for an objective basis for clinical decisions in the context of palliative sedation, but runs the risk of falling short when considering the individual and subjective experience of suffering at the end of life. We will conclude with a plea for the necessity of further combined conceptual and empirical research to develop a sound and feasible understanding of suffering which can contribute to consistent decision-making about palliative sedation. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stirling, A.

    1996-01-01

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  10. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

  11. Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  12. Multiple Criteria Decision Making by Generalized Data Envelopment Analysis Introducing Aspiration Level Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Yeboon; Arakawa, Masao; Hiroshi, Ishikawa; Nakayama, Hirotaka

    2002-01-01

    It has been proved in problems with 2-objective functions that genetic algorithms (GAs) are well utilized for generating Pareto optimal solutions, and then decision making can be easily performed on the basis of visualized Pareto optimal solutions. However, GAs are difficult to visualize Pareto optimal solutions in cases in which the number of objective function is more than 4. Hence, it is trouble some to grasp the trade-off among many objective functions, and decision makers hesitate to choose a final solution from a number of Pareto optimal solutions. In order to solve these problems, we suggest an aspiration level approach to the method using the generalized data envelopment analysis and GAs. We show that the proposed method supports decision makers to choose their desirable solution from many Pareto optimal solutions. Furthermore, it will be seen that engineering design can be effectively done by the proposed method, which makes generation of several Pareto optimal solutions close to the aspiration level and trade-off analysis easily

  13. A decision-making framework for protecting process plants from flooding based on fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    The protection of process plants from external events is mandatory in the Seveso Directive. Among these events figures the possibility of inundation of a plant, which may cause a hazard by disabling technical components and obviating operator interventions. A methodological framework for dealing with hazards from potential flooding events is presented. It combines an extension of the fault tree method with generic properties of flooding events in rivers and of dikes, which should be adapted to site-specific characteristics in a concrete case. Thus, a rational basis for deciding whether upgrading is required or not and which of the components should be upgraded is provided. Both the deterministic and the probabilistic approaches are compared. Preference is given to the probabilistic one. The conclusions drawn naturally depend on the scope and detail of the model calculations and the decision criterion adopted. The latter has to be supplied from outside the analysis, e.g. by the analyst himself, the plant operator or the competent authority. It turns out that decision-making is only viable if the boundary conditions for both the procedure of analysis and the decision criterion are clear.

  14. Strategic Decision-Making: Research Mapping from Exploratory Factor Analysis and Multidimensional Scaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivano Ribeiro

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To understand the connection between authors, concepts and theories that address strategic decision-making, in this article the citations and co-citations of works published up to 2014 were analyzed. The sample consists of 489 articles published in international periodicals included in the Web of Science-ISI Web of Knowledge database. The search was conducted using key words that enabled the identification of the highest possible number of articles on the subject in question. Through Multidimensional Scaling (MDS and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA, the conceptual and theoretical relationships involved in these studies were identified. The results show that from 1980 to 2014 three different factors are highlighted: the first has to do with studies on conflict; the second factor is the Top Management Team (TMT and decision-making; and the third is related to processes. More recently (2013-2014, studies on strategic decision-making are converging towards analysis of conflict and process, composition and control, with Upper Echelon Theory being maintained as the central theory in these studies. This finding is the main contribution of this article.

  15. Multi-criteria decision analysis for assessment and appraisal of orphan drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgi Iskrov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Limited resources and expanding expectations push all countries and types of health systems to adopt new approaches in priority setting and resources allocation. Despite best efforts, it is difficult to reconcile all competing interests and trade-offs are inevitable. This is why multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA has played a major role in recent uptake of value-based reimbursement. MCDA framework enables exploration of stakeholders’ preferences, as well as explicit organization of broad range of criteria on which real-world decisions are made.Assessment and appraisal of orphan drugs tend to be one of the most complicated health technology assessment (HTA tasks. Access to market approved orphan therapies remains an issue. Early constructive dialogue among rare disease stakeholders and elaboration of orphan drug-tailored decision support tools could set the scene for ongoing accumulation of evidence, as well as for proper reimbursement decision-making.Objective: The objective of this study was to create a MCDA value measurement model to assess and appraise orphan drugs. This was achieved by exploring the preferences on decision criteria’s weights and performance scores through a stakeholder-representative survey and a focus group discussion that were both organized in Bulgaria.Results/Conclusions: Decision criteria that describe the health technology’s characteristics were unanimously agreed as the most important group of reimbursement considerations. This outcome, combined with the high individual weight of disease severity and disease burden criteria underlined some of the fundamental principles of healthcare – equity and fairness. Our study proved that strength of evidence may be a key criterion in orphan drug assessment and appraisal. Evidence is not only used to shape reimbursement decision-making, but also to lend legitimacy to policies pursued. The need for real-world data on orphan drugs was largely stressed

  16. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Alonso Carlos

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

  17. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

    2010-09-30

    Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

  18. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-03-01

    The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant Project contracting strategy decision analysis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Felise, P.; Phillips, J.D.

    1994-10-17

    Ten basic contracting strategies were developed after a review of past strategies that had been used at the Hanford Site, other US Department of Energy (DOE) sites, other US government agencies, and in the private sector. As applicable to the Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant (LLWVP) Project, each strategy was described and depicted in a schedule format to assess compatibility with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, al so known as the Tri-Party Agreement (Ecology et al. 1994) milestones, key decision points, and other project requirements. The-pro and con aspects of each strategy also were tabulated. Using this information as a basis, the LLWVP Project team members, along with representatives of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Engineering, TWRS Programs, and Procurement Materials Management, formed a Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) evaluation team to select the best strategy. Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis techniques were used in facilitated meetings to arrive at the best balanced choice.

  20. Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant Project contracting strategy decision analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felise, P.; Phillips, J.D.

    1994-01-01

    Ten basic contracting strategies were developed after a review of past strategies that had been used at the Hanford Site, other US Department of Energy (DOE) sites, other US government agencies, and in the private sector. As applicable to the Low-Level Waste Vitrification Plant (LLWVP) Project, each strategy was described and depicted in a schedule format to assess compatibility with the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, al so known as the Tri-Party Agreement (Ecology et al. 1994) milestones, key decision points, and other project requirements. The-pro and con aspects of each strategy also were tabulated. Using this information as a basis, the LLWVP Project team members, along with representatives of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Engineering, TWRS Programs, and Procurement Materials Management, formed a Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) evaluation team to select the best strategy. Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis techniques were used in facilitated meetings to arrive at the best balanced choice

  1. Cost-effectiveness study of nitrate therapy using a decision analysis methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrat, E P

    1994-04-01

    The cost-assessment technology of decision analysis was applied to isosorbide dinitrate (ISDN), the standard therapy for angina; isosorbide mononitrate (ISMO), approved mid-1992; and nitroglycerin patches to measure the effect of economics on clinical practice and administrative choices. The evaluation was conducted to illustrate the utility of this method for decision makers in various sectors of the health care system, including physicians, pharmacy benefit administrators, formulary committees, and manufacturers. Findings indicate that despite a higher unit cost for ISMO, total anticipated treatment costs with this new long-acting nitrate are lower than those associated with ISDN (28%) and nitroglycerin patch (16%) therapy in patients with stable angina, and ISMO requires less dosing titration and is associated with fewer tolerance effects.

  2. Revealed preferences towards the appraisal of orphan drugs in Poland - multi criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolasa, Katarzyna; Zwolinski, Krzysztof Miroslaw; Zah, Vladimir; Kaló, Zoltán; Lewandowski, Tadeusz

    2018-04-27

    A Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique was adopted to reveal the preferences of the Appraisal Body of the Polish HTA agency towards orphan drugs (OMPs). There were 34 positive and 23 negative HTA recommendations out of 54 distinctive drug-indication pairs. The MCDA matrix consisted of 13 criteria, seven of which made the most impact on the HTA process. Appraisal of clinical evidence, cost of therapy, and safety considerations were the main contributors to the HTA guidance, whilst advancement of technology and manufacturing costs made the least impact. MCDA can be regarded as a valuable tool for revealing decision makers' preferences in the healthcare sector. Given that only roughly half of all criteria included in the MCDA matrix were deemed to make an impact on the HTA process, there is certainly some room for improvement with respect to the adaptation of a new approach towards the value assessment of OMPs in Poland.

  3. Analysis of methods of processing of expert information by optimization of administrative decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churakov, D. Y.; Tsarkova, E. G.; Marchenko, N. D.; Grechishnikov, E. V.

    2018-03-01

    In the real operation the measure definition methodology in case of expert estimation of quality and reliability of application-oriented software products is offered. In operation methods of aggregation of expert estimates on the example of a collective choice of an instrumental control projects in case of software development of a special purpose for needs of institutions are described. Results of operation of dialogue decision making support system are given an algorithm of the decision of the task of a choice on the basis of a method of the analysis of hierarchies and also. The developed algorithm can be applied by development of expert systems to the solution of a wide class of the tasks anyway connected to a multicriteria choice.

  4. Customer Purchasing Behavior Analysis as Alternatives for Supporting In-Store Green Marketing Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Alex Syaekhoni

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to increasing concerns about environmental protection, the environmental sustainability of businesses has been widely considered in the manufacturing and supply chain context. Further, its adoption has been implemented in the retail industry for marketing field, including green product promotion. This study aimed to propose a customer purchasing behavior analysis as an alternative for supporting decision-making in order to promote green products in retail stores. Hence, right-on-target marketing strategies can be implemented appropriately. The study was carried out using shopping path data collected by radio frequency identification (RFID from a large retail store in Seoul, South Korea. In addition, the store layout and its traffic were also analyzed. This method is expected to help experts providing appropriate decision alternatives. In addition, it can help retailers in order to increase product sales and achieve high levels of customer satisfaction.

  5. Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Sensitivity of additive aggregation methods to scaling and compensation assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analytical methods for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) support the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services for environmental decision making. Many published case studies transform ecosystem service outcomes into a common metric and aggregate the outcomes to set land ...

  6. Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

  7. Path Analysis Examining Self-Efficacy and Decision-Making Performance on a Simulated Baseball Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepler, Teri J.; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between decision-making self-efficacy and decision-making performance in sport. Undergraduate students (N = 78) performed 10 trials of a decision-making task in baseball. Self-efficacy was measured before performing each trial. Decision-making performance was assessed by decision speed and…

  8. DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilabert-Perramon, Antoni; Torrent-Farnell, Josep; Catalan, Arancha; Prat, Alba; Fontanet, Manel; Puig-Peiró, Ruth; Merino-Montero, Sandra; Khoury, Hanane; Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Badia, Xavier

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service). The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test. The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., "unmet needs" or "nonmedical costs"). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., "Mandate and scope of healthcare system", "Environmental impact") or adapted ("population priorities and access") for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: "disease severity", "unmet needs" and "comparative effectiveness", while the "size of the population" had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test-retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime. MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

  9. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Combining multi-criteria decision analysis and mini-health technology assessment: A funding decision-support tool for medical devices in a university hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, Nicolas; Hansen, Paul; van den Brink, Hélène; Boudard, Aurélie; Cordonnier, Anne-Laure; Devaux, Capucine; Pineau, Judith; Prognon, Patrice; Borget, Isabelle

    2016-02-01

    At the hospital level, decisions about purchasing new and oftentimes expensive medical devices must take into account multiple criteria simultaneously. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used for health technology assessment (HTA). One of the most successful hospital-based HTA approaches is mini-HTA, of which a notable example is the Matrix4value model. To develop a funding decision-support tool combining MCDA and mini-HTA, based on Matrix4value, suitable for medical devices for individual patient use in French university hospitals - known as the IDA tool, short for 'innovative device assessment'. Criteria for assessing medical devices were identified from a literature review and a survey of 18 French university hospitals. Weights for the criteria, representing their relative importance, were derived from a survey of 25 members of a medical devices committee using an elicitation technique involving pairwise comparisons. As a test of its usefulness, the IDA tool was applied to two new drug-eluting beads (DEBs) for transcatheter arterial chemoembolization. The IDA tool comprises five criteria and weights for each of two over-arching categories: risk and value. The tool revealed that the two new DEBs conferred no additional value relative to DEBs currently available. Feedback from participating decision-makers about the IDA tool was very positive. The tool could help to promote a more structured and transparent approach to HTA decision-making in French university hospitals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Exploratory Use of Decision Tree Analysis in Classification of Outcome in Hypoxic–Ischemic Brain Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanh G. Phan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPrognostication following hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (brain injury is important for clinical management. The aim of this exploratory study is to use a decision tree model to find clinical and MRI associates of severe disability and death in this condition. We evaluate clinical model and then the added value of MRI data.MethodThe inclusion criteria were as follows: age ≥17 years, cardio-respiratory arrest, and coma on admission (2003–2011. Decision tree analysis was used to find clinical [Glasgow Coma Score (GCS, features about cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, age, and sex] and MRI (infarct volume associates of severe disability and death. We used the area under the ROC (auROC to determine accuracy of model. There were 41 (63.7% males patients having MRI imaging with the average age 51.5 ± 18.9 years old. The decision trees showed that infarct volume and age were important factors for discrimination between mild to moderate disability and severe disability and death at day 0 and day 2. The auROC for this model was 0.94 (95% CI 0.82–1.00. At day 7, GCS value was the only predictor; the auROC was 0.96 (95% CI 0.86–1.00.ConclusionOur findings provide proof of concept for further exploration of the role of MR imaging and decision tree analysis in the early prognostication of hypoxic ischemic brain injury.

  12. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  13. Priority setting of health interventions: the need for multi-criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baltussen Rob

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Priority setting of health interventions is often ad-hoc and resources are not used to an optimal extent. Underlying problem is that multiple criteria play a role and decisions are complex. Interventions may be chosen to maximize general population health, to reduce health inequalities of disadvantaged or vulnerable groups, ad/or to respond to life-threatening situations, all with respect to practical and budgetary constraints. This is the type of problem that policy makers are typically bad at solving rationally, unaided. They tend to use heuristic or intuitive approaches to simplify complexity, and in the process, important information is ignored. Next, policy makers may select interventions for only political motives. This indicates the need for rational and transparent approaches to priority setting. Over the past decades, a number of approaches have been developed, including evidence-based medicine, burden of disease analyses, cost-effectiveness analyses, and equity analyses. However, these approaches concentrate on single criteria only, whereas in reality, policy makers need to make choices taking into account multiple criteria simultaneously. Moreover, they do not cover all criteria that are relevant to policy makers. Therefore, the development of a multi-criteria approach to priority setting is necessary, and this has indeed recently been identified as one of the most important issues in health system research. In other scientific disciplines, multi-criteria decision analysis is well developed, has gained widespread acceptance and is routinely used. This paper presents the main principles of multi-criteria decision analysis. There are only a very few applications to guide resource allocation decisions in health. We call for a shift away from present priority setting tools in health – that tend to focus on single criteria – towards transparent and systematic approaches that take into account all relevant criteria

  14. Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Des H.V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Gibson, Keith; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Link, William A.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Maguire, Kelly

    2011-01-01

    Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of

  15. A portfolio decision analysis approach to support energy research and development resource allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurth, Margaret; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Bates, Matthew E.; Bridges, Todd S.; Summers, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) aims to facilitate a clean and independent energy future for the nation. Strategic planning for energy research and development (R&D) can be complex and dynamic, in part due to federal budgetary constraints and volatility. Managing R&D funding to advance energy technologies, in spite of these challenges, is a crucial component of the nation's long term energy policy. This study demonstrates a portfolio decision analysis (PDA) approach to support R&D resource allocation decisions for the DOE Office of Fossil Energy's Carbon Capture and Storage R&D program. A multi-attribute value model uses technology readiness levels (TRLs) and other metrics to represent the overall objectives of the R&D program in order to evaluate alternative research portfolios given limited funding. Mathematical optimization identifies efficient funding allocations for each technology program area to maximize the multi-attribute value generated from the total budget. This is especially useful for responding to externally imposed budget changes. As the case study demonstrates, explicitly funding the most value-generating options leads to greater expected R&D programmatic value than typical strategies of equal or proportional distributions of a budget change among technology program areas. - Highlights: • Decision analysis can minimize the effect of a budget decrement on an R&D program. • Greater expected benefits are yielded by differentially funding technologies. • Budget scenario testing illustrates factors that influence value generation. • Coordinating with US DOE bridges gap between decision research and practice.

  16. Determining the best treatment for simple bone cyst: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung Yeol; Chung, Chin Youb; Lee, Kyoung Min; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Won, Sung Hun; Choi, In Ho; Cho, Tae-Joon; Yoo, Won Joon; Yeo, Ji Hyun; Park, Moon Seok

    2014-03-01

    The treatment of simple bone cysts (SBC) in children varies significantly among physicians. This study examined which procedure is better for the treatment of SBC, using a decision analysis based on current published evidence. A decision tree focused on five treatment modalities of SBC (observation, steroid injection, autologous bone marrow injection, decompression, and curettage with bone graft) were created. Each treatment modality was further branched, according to the presence and severity of complications. The probabilities of all cases were obtained by literature review. A roll back tool was utilized to determine the most preferred treatment modality. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the threshold value of the treatment modalities. Two-way sensitivity analysis was utilized to examine the joint impact of changes in probabilities of two parameters. The decision model favored autologous bone marrow injection. The expected value of autologous bone marrow injection was 0.9445, while those of observation, steroid injection, decompression, and curettage and bone graft were 0.9318, 0.9400, 0.9395, and 0.9342, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that autologous bone marrow injection was better than that of decompression for the expected value when the rate of pathologic fracture, or positive symptoms of SBC after autologous bone marrow injection, was lower than 20.4%. In our study, autologous bone marrow injection was found to be the best choice of treatment of SBC. However, the results were sensitive to the rate of pathologic fracture after treatment of SBC. Physicians should consider the possibility of pathologic fracture when they determine a treatment method for SBC.

  17. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  18. Bi-Criteria Optimization of Decision Trees with Applications to Data Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor; Hussain, Shahid; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2017-01-01

    : the study of relationships among depth, average depth and number of nodes for decision trees for corner point detection (such trees are used in computer vision for object tracking), study of systems of decision rules derived from decision trees

  19. Decision-making on the integration of renewable energy in the mining industry: A case studies analysis, a cost analysis and a SWOT analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kateryna Zharan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The mining industry is showing increasing interest in using renewable energy (RE technologies as one of the principles of sustainable mining. This is witnessed in several pilot projects in major mining countries around the world. Positive factors which favor this interest are gaining importance and negative barrier factors seem to be less relevant. For a mine operator, the switch from fossil fuel to RE technologies is the outcome of decision making processes. So far, research about such decision making on the use of RE in mining is underdeveloped. The purpose of this paper to present a practical decision rule based on a principle of indifference between RE and fossil fuel technologies and on appropriate time management. To achieve this objective, three investigations are made: (i a case studies analysis, (ii a comparative cost analysis, and (iii a SWOT analysis.

  20. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

    2017-03-01

    An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

  1. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making

  2. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  3. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  4. Application fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis method to prioritize project success criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Quyen, Nguyen Le Hoang Thuy To

    2017-11-01

    Project success is a foundation for project owner to manage and control not only for the current project but also for future potential projects in construction companies. However, identifying the key success criteria for evaluating a particular project in real practice is a challenging task. Normally, it depends on a lot of factors, such as the expectation of the project owner and stakeholders, triple constraints of the project (cost, time, quality), and company's mission, vision, and objectives. Traditional decision-making methods for measuring the project success are usually based on subjective opinions of panel experts, resulting in irrational and inappropriate decisions. Therefore, this paper introduces a multi-attribute decision analysis method (MADAM) for weighting project success criteria by using fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process approach. It is found that this method is useful when dealing with imprecise and uncertain human judgments in evaluating project success criteria. Moreover, this research also suggests that although cost, time, and quality are three project success criteria projects, the satisfaction of project owner and acceptance of project stakeholders with the completed project criteria is the most important criteria for project success evaluation in Vietnam.

  5. Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterstatter, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

  6. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Schmuck

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a small village on its way to becoming a “bioenergy village”. Here, MCDA has been combined with already established tools accompanying the process to becoming a “bioenergy village”, such as planning workshops, citizens’ meetings and best-practice trips. A comprehensive set of sustainability criteria was applied aimed at addressing the questions of local actors. An emphasis was placed on social criteria that comprise the perceived values of local impacts. In general, it was observed that MCDA provides many benefits for this application context. In particular, the group weighting using the SIMOS method demonstrated good results in the process. However, for real-world applications of MCDA, the challenge of data compilation in particular must be addressed.

  7. A Descriptive Analysis of Decision Support Systems Research Between 1990 and 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Arnott

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first major report of a project that is investigating the theoretic foundations of decision support systems (DSS. The project was principally motivated by a concern for the direction and relevance of DSS research. The main areas of research focus are the decision and judgement theoretic base of the discipline, the research strategies used in published articles, and the professional relevance of DSS research. The project has analysed 926 DSS articles published in 14 major journals from 1990 to 2003. The findings indicate that DSS research is more dominated by positivist research than general information systems (in particular experiments, surveys, and descriptions of specific applications and systems, is heavily influenced by the work of Herbert Simon, is poorly grounded in contemporary judgement and decision-making research, and falls down in the identification of the nature of clients and users. Of great concern is the finding that DSS research has relatively low professional relevance. An overview of the direction of further analysis is presented.

  8. Analysis of gender differences in destination decision-making: The case study of Zakynthos Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đeri Lukrecija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of tourist decision-making is heavily influenced by a number of external and internal factors, and can be interpreted only by using multidisciplinary theories and techniques in researches. The main goal of tourist s behavior analysis is to understand the motives and reasons of customer decisions during their choice of tourist destination. By getting to know the potential and existing customers, tourism companies can adjust the characteristics of their products. Higher customer satisfaction also means better the financial results. The research was conducted in the summer of 2013, through a structured questionnaire with 28 questions. The sample consists of 100 tourists, who visited the Greek island of Zakynthos as the customers of Rhapsody travel, tour operator from Belgrade, Serbia. The aim of this research is to determine the needs and motivation in the process of destination selection of tourists, who visited Zakynthos, and their comparison between genders. Data was processed with the IBM SPSS 19.0. software package for statistical research, through the Chi-Square statistical test. Results of the study showed that there are statistically significant differences only at the question categories of destination decision-making and expressing satisfaction and dissatisfaction.

  9. Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaafsma, Joanna D.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.; Buskens, Erik

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of

  10. An approach to siting nuclear power plants: the relevance of earthquakes, faults and decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, K.; Brogan, G.E.; Cluff, L.S.; Idriss, I.M.; Mao, K.T.

    1975-01-01

    The regional approach to nuclear power plant siting described in this paper identifies candidate sites within the region and ranks these sites by using decision-analysis concepts. The approach uses exclusionary criteria to eliminate areas from consideration and to identify those areas which are most likely to contain candidate sites. These areas are then examined in greater detail to identify candidate sites, and the number of sites under consideration is reduced to a reasonably manageable number, approximately 15. These sites are then ranked using concepts of decision analysis. The exclusionary criteria applied relate primarily to regulatory-agency safety requirements and essential functional requirements. Examples of such criteria include proximity to population centres, presence of active faults, and the availability of cooling water. In many areas of the world, the presence of active faults and potential negative effects of earthquakes are dominant exclusionary criteria. To apply the 'active fault' criterion the region must be studied to locate and assess the activity of all potentially active faults. This requires complementary geologic (including geomorphic), historical, seismological, geodetic and geophysical investigations of the entire region. Site response studies or empirical attenuation correlations can be used to determine the relevant parameters of anticipated shaking from postulated earthquakes, and analytical testing and evaluation can be used to assess the potential extent of ground failure during an earthquake. After candidate sites are identified, an approach based on decision analysis is used to rank them. This approach uses the preferences and judgements of consumers, utility companies, the government, and other groups concerned with siting and licensing issues in the ranking process. Both subjective and objective factors are processed in a logical manner, as are the monetary and non-monetary factors and achievement of competing environmental

  11. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  12. Configural frequency analysis as a method of determining patients' preferred decision-making roles in dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loeffert Sabine

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous studies examined factors in promoting a patient preference for active participation in treatment decision making with only modest success. The purpose of this study was to identify types of patients wishing to participate in treatment decisions as well as those wishing to play a completely active or passive role based on a Germany-wide survey of dialysis patients; using a prediction typal analysis method that defines types as configurations of categories belonging to different attributes and takes particularly higher order interactions between variables into account. Methods After randomly splitting the original patient sample into two halves, an exploratory prediction configural frequency analysis (CFA was performed on one-half of the sample (n = 1969 and the identified types were considered as hypotheses for an inferential prediction CFA for the second half (n = 1914. 144 possible prediction types were tested by using five predictor variables and control preferences as criterion. An α-adjustment (0.05 for multiple testing was performed by the Holm procedure. Results 21 possible prediction types were identified as hypotheses in the exploratory prediction CFA; four patient types were confirmed in the confirmatory prediction CFA: patients preferring a passive role show low information seeking preference, above average trust in their physician, perceive their physician's participatory decision-making (PDM-style positive, have a lower educational level, and are 56-75 years old (Type 1; p 76 years old (Type 2; p p p Conclusions The method prediction configural frequency analysis was newly introduced to the research field of patient participation and could demonstrate how a particular control preference role is determined by an association of five variables.

  13. The management of patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Calvin F; Tomlinson, George; Temple, Larissa K; Baxter, Nancy N

    2013-04-01

    Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision.

  14. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J; Heekeren, Hauke R; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs.

  15. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COOPER, J. ARLIN

    1999-01-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  16. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  17. Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

    2018-03-01

    GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

  18. Benefits of Employing a Personal Response System in a Decision Analysis Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Or-Bach

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the employment of a Personal Response System (PRS during a Decision Analysis course for Management Information Systems (MIS students. The description shows how the carefully designed PRS-based questions, the delivery, and the follow-up discussions; provided a context for eliciting and exercising central concepts of the course topics as well as central skills required for MIS majors. A sample of PRS-based questions is presented along with a description for each question of its purpose, the way it was delivered, the response rate, the responses and their frequencies, and the respective in-class discussion. Lessons from these findings are discussed.

  19. Meta-analysis is not an exact science: Call for guidance on quantitative synthesis decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddaway, Neal R; Rytwinski, Trina

    2018-05-01

    Meta-analysis is becoming increasingly popular in the field of ecology and environmental management. It increases the effective power of analyses relative to single studies, and allows researchers to investigate effect modifiers and sources of heterogeneity that could not be easily examined within single studies. Many systematic reviewers will set out to conduct a meta-analysis as part of their synthesis, but meta-analysis requires a niche set of skills that are not widely held by the environmental research community. Each step in the process of carrying out a meta-analysis requires decisions that have both scientific and statistical implications. Reviewers are likely to be faced with a plethora of decisions over which effect size to choose, how to calculate variances, and how to build statistical models. Some of these decisions may be simple based on appropriateness of the options. At other times, reviewers must choose between equally valid approaches given the information available to them. This presents a significant problem when reviewers are attempting to conduct a reliable synthesis, such as a systematic review, where subjectivity is minimised and all decisions are documented and justified transparently. We propose three urgent, necessary developments within the evidence synthesis community. Firstly, we call on quantitative synthesis experts to improve guidance on how to prepare data for quantitative synthesis, providing explicit detail to support systematic reviewers. Secondly, we call on journal editors and evidence synthesis coordinating bodies (e.g. CEE) to ensure that quantitative synthesis methods are adequately reported in a transparent and repeatable manner in published systematic reviews. Finally, where faced with two or more broadly equally valid alternative methods or actions, reviewers should conduct multiple analyses, presenting all options, and discussing the implications of the different analytical approaches. We believe it is vital to tackle

  20. Optimizing medical device buying. Value analysis models can help you improve decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, Josh; Brooks, Elizabeth

    2010-05-01

    Value Analysis Models (VAMs) are a burgeoning analytical tool that can help materials managers, operating room managers, CFOs and others to make comparative value assessments before reaching a critical purchasing decision. Although relatively new to the hospital field, more and more manufacturers are supporting these initiatives to bring critical information to their customers and the health care industry. VAMs aren't designed to conclude that one product is better than another but to be a tool that can help make the product acquisition process much easier.

  1. Transportation Big Data: Unbiased Analysis and Tools to Inform Sustainable Transportation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-06-01

    Today, transportation operation and energy systems data are generated at an unprecedented scale. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the go-to source for expertise in providing data and analysis to inform industry and government transportation decision making. The lab's teams of data experts and engineers are mining and analyzing large sets of complex data -- or 'big data' -- to develop solutions that support the research, development, and deployment of market-ready technologies that reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Head First Data Analysis A learner's guide to big numbers, statistics, and good decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Milton, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Today, interpreting data is a critical decision-making factor for businesses and organizations. If your job requires you to manage and analyze all kinds of data, turn to Head First Data Analysis, where you'll quickly learn how to collect and organize data, sort the distractions from the truth, find meaningful patterns, draw conclusions, predict the future, and present your findings to others. Whether you're a product developer researching the market viability of a new product or service, a marketing manager gauging or predicting the effectiveness of a campaign, a salesperson who needs data t

  3. The process of construction of evidence: An analysis of the use of indicators in two decisions of innovation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boavida, N.; Moniz, A.; Laranja, M.

    2016-07-01

    Despite increasing calls for evidence-based policies, knowledge about the practical use of evidences remains limited. This paper studies the process of construction of evidences in decisions of innovation policy to understand how evidences were used. It analysis the use of indicators and other evidences through interviews conducted to inquire about the two decisions: an electric mobility policy and a nanotechnology laboratory. Results show indicators and other evidences were brought to decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different interests of the actors and the stakeholders. Their role was influenced by the particular situation of the decision makers. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidences appears to be related with the adversity of the policy context. In addition, research suggests that indicators are one tool among others to foster innovation decisions. In fact, the relatively minor instrumental role of indicators suggests that indicators are mostly a complementary instrument of decision. When used relevantly, indicators can offer support to a decision. But there are other significant influences that need to be taken into account to understand the specific role indicators and other evidences play, such as the social relations of the decision makers and their emotional-intuitive decisions. (Author)

  4. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  5. Vasa previa screening strategies: a decision and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinkey, R G; Odibo, A O

    2018-05-22

    The aim of this study is to perform a decision and cost-effectiveness analysis comparing four screening strategies for the antenatal diagnosis of vasa previa among singleton pregnancies. A decision-analytic model was constructed comparing vasa previa screening strategies. Published probabilities and costs were applied to four transvaginal screening scenarios which occurred at the time of mid-trimester ultrasound: no screening, ultrasound-indicated screening, screening pregnancies conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF), and universal screening. Ultrasound-indicated screening was defined as performing a transvaginal ultrasound at the time of routine anatomy ultrasound in response to one of the following sonographic findings associated with an increased risk of vasa previa: low-lying placenta, marginal or velamentous cord insertion, or bilobed or succenturiate lobed placenta. The primary outcome was cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) in U.S. dollars. The analysis was from a healthcare system perspective with a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 per QALY selected. One-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses (Monte-Carlo simulation) were performed. This decision-analytic model demonstrated that screening pregnancies conceived by IVF was the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $29,186.50 / QALY. Ultrasound-indicated screening was the second most cost-effective with an ICER of $56,096.77 / QALY. These data were robust to all one-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses performed. Within our baseline assumptions, transvaginal ultrasound screening for vasa previa appears to be most cost-effective when performed among IVF pregnancies. However, both IVF and ultrasound-indicated screening strategies fall within contemporary willingness-to-pay thresholds, suggesting that both strategies may be appropriate to apply in clinical practice. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This

  6. Decision analysis of countermeasures for the milk pathway after an accidental release of radionuclides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ammann, M.; Sinkko, K.; Kostiainen, E.; Salo, E.; Liskola, K.; Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Mustajoki, J

    2001-12-01

    A facilitated workshop was arranged to plan countermeasures that could reduce the dose arising from the consumption of radionuclide-contaminated milk products. It was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear facility had led to the release of considerable amounts of radionuclides, which subsequently spread across one of Finland's most important agricultural regions and contaminated the milk produced there. The participants in the workshop, interest groups on food issues, considered all the factors influencing the countermeasure decision, not only radiological or monetary ones but less tangible psychosocial effects as well. The participants preferred the countermeasures provision of uncontaminated fodder and production control to banning and disposal. The analysis showed that these countermeasures could be implemented even if the radionuclide concentrations in foodstuffs were below internationally recommended intervention levels. Banning and withdrawal of milk products from sale was not a favourable option, because of the high costs and disadvantages to producers and the industry, and because the disposal of enormous amounts of milk causes a considerable environmental problem. The study revealed the need to further develop methods to realistically assess the radiological and cost implications of food countermeasures. The feasibility and constraints of actions also need further investigation. The experience gained strongly supports the format of a facilitated workshop to tackle a decision problem that concerns different stakeholders. The participants considered the workshop and the decision analysis very useful in exercises. They also expected a similar approach to be applicable in a real situation, although the suitability was not rated as high as for exercises. It is concluded that a facilitated workshop is a valuable instrument for emergency management and in exercises, when revising emergency plans or in order to identify issues that need to be

  7. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope O. Alimi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis. Methods The risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors. Results Results from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001 than a control group of geographically random points. Conclusion In this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

  8. Automatic Decision Support for Clinical Diagnostic Literature Using Link Analysis in a Weighted Keyword Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuqing; Sun, Ying; Soergel, Dagobert

    2017-12-23

    We present a novel approach to recommending articles from the medical literature that support clinical diagnostic decision-making, giving detailed descriptions of the associated ideas and principles. The specific goal is to retrieve biomedical articles that help answer questions of a specified type about a particular case. Based on the filtered keywords, MeSH(Medical Subject Headings) lexicon and the automatically extracted acronyms, the relationship between keywords and articles was built. The paper gives a detailed description of the process of by which keywords were measured and relevant articles identified based on link analysis in a weighted keywords network. Some important challenges identified in this study include the extraction of diagnosis-related keywords and a collection of valid sentences based on the keyword co-occurrence analysis and existing descriptions of symptoms. All data were taken from medical articles provided in the TREC (Text Retrieval Conference) clinical decision support track 2015. Ten standard topics and one demonstration topic were tested. In each case, a maximum of five articles with the highest relevance were returned. The total user satisfaction of 3.98 was 33% higher than average. The results also suggested that the smaller the number of results, the higher the average satisfaction. However, a few shortcomings were also revealed since medical literature recommendation for clinical diagnostic decision support is so complex a topic that it cannot be fully addressed through the semantic information carried solely by keywords in existing descriptions of symptoms. Nevertheless, the fact that these articles are actually relevant will no doubt inspire future research.

  9. Decision analysis to define the optimal management of athletes with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mery, Carlos M; Lopez, Keila N; Molossi, Silvana; Sexson-Tejtel, S Kristen; Krishnamurthy, Rajesh; McKenzie, E Dean; Fraser, Charles D; Cantor, Scott B

    2016-11-01

    The goal of this study was to use decision analysis to evaluate the impact of varying uncertainties on the outcomes of patients with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery. Two separate decision analysis models were created: one for anomalous left coronary artery (ALCA) and one for anomalous right coronary artery (ARCA). Three strategies were compared: observation, exercise restriction, and surgery. Probabilities and health utilities were estimated on the basis of existing literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Surgery was the optimal management strategy for patients management in anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery depends on multiple factors, including individual patient characteristics. Decision analysis provides a tool to understand how these characteristics affect the outcomes with each management strategy and thus may aid in the decision making process for a particular patient. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. MARKETING MIX ANALYSIS OF NATURAL TOURISM AREA 'KAWAH PUTIH’ AND ITS EFFECT ON VISITORS’ DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isyana Rahayu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Kawah Putih is one of the leading tourist places in Bandung which has significantly contributed to the revenue of travel business division in the Forestry Housing as the manager. The revenue obtained depends on the marketing mix strategy conducted by the management because the marketing mix is the elements which become a consideration basis when making marketing communication strategy services in order to understand the demands of tourists. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to obtain and understand information and analyze the visitors’ responses on the natural tourism area related to the marketing mix that has been implemented by the management. The dependent variables included the elements of marketing mix, that involves 7P – product, price, place, promotion, people, procees and physical evidence, while the independent variable included the visitors’ decision. From the validity and tests, it is revealed that the overall regression model bring effects or at least there is one variable of the marketing mix factors that influences the decision of the visitors. From the data analysis, it is found that the process variables and physical appearance do not significantly affect the decision of the visitors. The other variables. that involve variables of product, price, place, promotion, and human have significantly influence the visitors’ decision.Keywords: Marketing mix, Kawah Putih, decision of visitors, touristsABSTRAKKawah Putih merupakan salah satu wisata unggulan Kota Bandung dan telah berkontribusi cukup signifikan untuk pendapatan divisi bisnis wisata Perum Perhutani. Pendapatan yang diperoleh tergantung dari strategi bauran pemasaran yang dilakukan oleh pengelola karena pada bauran pemasaran terdapat unsur atau elemen yang menjadi dasar pertimbangan pembuatan strategi komunikasi pemasaran jasa dalam rangka untuk memahami tuntutan dari wisatawan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh informasi, memahami dan menganalisis

  11. Importance analysis based on logical differential calculus and Binary Decision Diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaitseva, Elena; Levashenko, Vitaly; Kostolny, Jozef

    2015-01-01

    System availability evaluation, sensitivity analysis, Importance Measures, and optimal design are important issues that have become research topics for reliability engineering. There are different mathematical approaches to the development of these topics. The structure function based approach is one of them. Structure function enables one to analyse a system of any complexity. But computational complexity of structure function based methods is time consuming for large-scale networks. We propose to use two mathematical approaches for decision to this problem for system importance analysis. The first of them is Direct Partial Boolean Derivative. New equations for calculating the Importance Measures are developed in terms of these derivatives. The second is Binary Decision Diagram (BDD), that supports efficient manipulation of Boolean algebra. Two algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative based on BDD of structure function are proposed in this paper. The experimental results show the efficiency of new algorithms for calculating Direct Partial Boolean Derivative and Importance Measures. - Highlights: • New approach for calculation of Importance Measures is proposed. • Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives are used for calculation of Importance Measures. • New equations for Importance Measures are obtained. • New algorithm to calculate Direct Partial Boolean Derivatives by BDD is developed

  12. Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  13. BiodieselFAO: An Integrated Decision Support System for Investment Analysis in the Biodiesel Production Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Galvão da Silva Júnior

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the short and medium terms, biofuels are the most viable alternative to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. The recent controversy over the competition between biofuels and food production increases the complexity of investment decisions in the biodiesel production chain. In this context, decision support tools are highly relevant. The purpose of this article is to describe the BiodieselFAO using the Unified Modeling Language (UML. An integrated analysis considering both agricultural and industrial sectors was identified as a key requirement to the system. Therefore, farmers and industry are the main actors in the use case diagram. As the raw material represents around 70% of the industrial cost of biodiesel production, the price negotiation of raw material (oilseeds is the central use case. Configuration, agriculture, industry, results and scenarios are the modules, which encompass the functionalities derived from the UML diagrams. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO has made the BiodieselFAO available, free of charge, to around 180 professionals from 17 Latin American countries. Additionally, the developing team has supported the usage of the BiodieselFAO in several biodiesel investment analyses throughout Latin America. The system was also useful in the design and analysis of policy related to biodiesel industry in Brazil.

  14. Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

    2017-05-03

    Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

  15. Nuclear proliferation in the Third World: an analysis of decision making in Indiana and Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gdaia, A.M.

    1985-01-01

    The causes of nuclear proliferation in the Third World are analyzed by examining the motives and forces that went into the nuclear decisions of India and Pakistan. A comprehensive framework is used that consists of five levels of analysis: international, societal, governmental, bureaucratic, and individual factors. The study examines how various potential motives that might impel a nation to acquire nuclear weapons operated through the different levels of analysis. It is concluded that the security motive was the primary determinant in each case as opposed to other motives such as desire for international status or economic considerations. However, security motives were joined by other values and constraints. Regional conflict combined with the lack of a superpower guarantee of security to persuade both countries to pursue nuclear weapons. Such domestic factors as the type of political systems, public opinion, and mass media seemed to play a very limited role in the decisions, although a larger role in India than in Pakistan. Finally, strong individual leadership was a relatively powerful determinant of policy in both countries

  16. Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

    2014-02-01

    To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Airports’ Operational Performance and Efficiency Evaluation Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Jardim

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Airport benchmarking depends on airports’ operational performance and efficiency indicators, which are important for business agents, operational managers, regulatory agencies, airlines and passengers. There are several sets of single and complex indicators to evaluate airports’ performance and efficiency as well as several techniques to benchmark such infrastructures. The general aim of this work is twofold: to balance the data envelopment analysis (DEA and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA tools and to show that airport benchmarking is also possible using a multicriteria decision analysis tool called Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH. Whilst DEA measures the relative performance in the presence of multiple inputs and outputs, MCDA/ MACBETH uses performance and efficiency indicators to support benchmark results, being useful for evaluating the real importance and weight of the selected indicators. The work is structured as follows: first, a state-of-the-art review concerning either airport benchmarking and performance indicators or DEA and MCDA tool techniques; second, an overview of the impacts on airports’ operational performance and efficiency of emergent operational factors (sudden meteorological/natural phenomena; third, two case studies on a set of worldwide airports and Madeira (FNC Airport; and fourth, some insights into and challenges for future research that are still under development.

  18. An analysis of decision making and criminal outcomes in sexual offenders

    OpenAIRE

    Pedneault, Amelie

    2015-01-01

    In 1985, Clarke and Cornish proposed the rational choice framework to study criminal decision making. According to their approach, decisions of a criminal nature are not different than any other type of decision, and are thus orientated toward the satisfaction of commonplace needs. We adopted this approach and looked at a sample of 898 male sexual offenders as decision makers, framing their sexually coercive decisions as means to obtain desired outcomes. Clarke and Cornish specifically propos...

  19. Identifying the main Individual Factors Influencing Entrepreneurial Decision making Biases: A Qualitative Content Analysis Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kambiz Talebi; Pouria Nouri; Abdolah Ahmadi Kafeshani

    2014-01-01

    Entrepreneurial decisions are one of the most important functions of entrepreneurs so as to manage their ventures on a daily basis. These decisions are not fully rational and because of various factors like cognitive and personal characteristics, environmental and firm-related issues, entrepreneurial decisions are prone to biases. Decision making biases has become a favorable research topic among entrepreneurial scholars. Decision making biases are responsible for lots of entrepreneurial succ...

  20. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Analyst-Oriented Volume - Code of Best Practice for Soft Operational Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  1. Analysis on factors affecting consumers decision on purchasing simple-type houses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumintang, A.; Sholichin, I.

    2018-01-01

    In line with the increase of the population and the need of comfortable houses, as affected by modernization era, the house demand is getting higher. Hence, conducting a research on consumers need and want in buying a house should be seriously attempted to succeed marketing activity. Using an analysis consumers’ behavior, the researcher will know few affecting factors related to consumers’ satisfaction in buying a house. Among other, the factors in question include: house price, house condition, facilities, location and accessability. The sample of this research was drawn from the residents of Graha Asri Housing, Taman Bulang Permai, and Sukodono Permai. Based on the analysis and discussion, some conclusions are made as follow: the factors and variables affecting the consumers’ decision on each choice of house is different and also the same variables on three sources of data include housing atmosphere, cleaning service, ease of access to shopping center, health clinics or hospitals, tourism spot, schools, and the bus station.

  2. Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amal; Chakraborty, Bhaswat S

    2016-01-01

    Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

  3. Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

  4. Study on Network Error Analysis and Locating based on Integrated Information Decision System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, F.; Dong, Z. H.

    2017-10-01

    Integrated information decision system (IIDS) integrates multiple sub-system developed by many facilities, including almost hundred kinds of software, which provides with various services, such as email, short messages, drawing and sharing. Because the under-layer protocols are different, user standards are not unified, many errors are occurred during the stages of setup, configuration, and operation, which seriously affect the usage. Because the errors are various, which may be happened in different operation phases, stages, TCP/IP communication protocol layers, sub-system software, it is necessary to design a network error analysis and locating tool for IIDS to solve the above problems. This paper studies on network error analysis and locating based on IIDS, which provides strong theory and technology supports for the running and communicating of IIDS.

  5. The use of decision analysis to evaluate the economic effects of heat mount detectors in two dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, N B

    1975-03-01

    This paper reports a decrease in the interval from calving to conception in two commercial dairy herds, associated with the use of KaMaR Heat Mount Detectors. An economic analysis of the results uses a neoclassical decision theory approach to demonstrate that the use of heat mount detectors is likely to be profitable, with an expected net return of $154.18 per 100 calvings. The analysis demonstrates the suitability of a decision-theoretic approach to the analysis of applied research, and illustrates some of the weaknesses of "Classical" statistical analysis in such circumstances.

  6. Patient and provider perceptions of decision making about use of epidural analgesia during childbirth: a thematic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Holly Bianca; Shorten, Allison

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the nature of differences in perceptions of decision making between patients and providers about use of epidural analgesia during labor. Thematic analysis was used to identify patterns in written survey responses from 14 patients, 13 labor nurses, and 7 obstetrician-gynecologists. Results revealed patients attempted to place themselves in an informed role in decision making and sought respect for their decisions. Some providers demonstrated paternalism and a tendency to steer patients in the direction of their own preferences. Nurses observed various pressures on decision making, reinforcing the importance of patients being supported to make an informed choice. Differences in perceptions suggest need for improvement in communication and shared decision-making practices related to epidural analgesia use in labor.

  7. Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

  8. A Multiple Streams analysis of the decisions to fund gender-neutral HPV vaccination in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Gilla K; Guichon, Juliet; Prue, Gillian; Perez, Samara; Rosberger, Zeev

    2017-07-01

    In Canada, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is licensed and recommended for females and males. Although all Canadian jurisdictions fund school-based HPV vaccine programs for girls, only six jurisdictions fund school-based HPV vaccination for boys. The research aimed to analyze the factors that underpin government decisions to fund HPV vaccine for boys using a theoretical policy model, Kingdon's Multiple Streams framework. This approach assesses policy development by examining three concurrent, but independent, streams that guide analysis: Problem Stream, Policy Stream, and Politics Stream. Analysis from the Problem Stream highlights that males are affected by HPV-related diseases and are involved in transmitting HPV infection to their sexual partners. Policy Stream analysis makes clear that while the inclusion of males in HPV vaccine programs is suitable, equitable, and acceptable; there is debate regarding cost-effectiveness. Politics Stream analysis identifies the perspectives of six different stakeholder groups and highlights the contribution of government officials at the provincial and territorial level. Kingdon's Multiple Streams framework helps clarify the opportunities and barriers for HPV vaccine policy change. This analysis identified that the interpretation of cost-effectiveness models and advocacy of stakeholders such as citizen-advocates and HPV-affected politicians have been particularly important in galvanizing policy change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  10. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  11. Interference of partial visual analysis of root filling quality and apical status on retreatment decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Dornelles Morgental

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of periapical radiolucency has been used as a criterion for endodontic treatment failure. However, in addition to the inherent limitations of radiographic examinations, radiographic interpretations are extremely subjective. Thus, this study investigated the effect of partial analysis of root filling quality and periapical status on retreatment decisions by general dentists. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twelve digitalized periapical radiographs were analyzed by 10 observers. The study was conducted at three time points at 1-week intervals. Radiographs edited with the Adobe Photoshop CS4 software were analyzed at three time points: first, only root filling quality was analyzed; second, only the periapical areas of the teeth under study were visualized; finally, observers analyzed the unedited radiographic image. Spearman ’s coefficient was used to analyze the correlations between the scores assigned when the periapical area was not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed, as well as between the scores assigned when root fillings where not visible and when the unedited radiograph was analyzed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values between partial images and unedited radiographs were also used to analyze retreatment decisions. The level of significance was set at 5%. RESULTS: The visualization of the root filling on the unedited radiograph affected the interpretation of the periapical status and the technical quality of the fillings has a greater influence on the general dentist’s decision to prescribe endodontic retreatment than the periapical condition. CONCLUSION: In order to make endodontic diagnosis, radiographic interpretation process should not only emphasize technical aspects, but also consider biological factors.

  12. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Aenishaenslin

    Full Text Available Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or

  13. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  14. Enhanced probabilistic decision analysis for radiological confinement barriers of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golinescu, R.P.; Kazimi, M.S.

    1998-01-01

    To ensure a defence-in-depth approach, several radiological confinement barriers surrounding a tokamak plant can be employed. A methodology using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques is a useful tool for evaluating the performance of each confinement barrier within the context of a limited allowable risk of accidental radioactivity releases. Such a methodology was developed and applied to the confinement strategy for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Accident sequence models were constructed for each of the confinement barriers to evaluate the probabilities of events leading to radioactive releases from the corresponding confinement barrier. The current ITER design requirements set radioactive release and dose limits for individual event sequences grouped in categories by frequency. To limit the plant's overall risk and account for event uncertainties in both frequency and consequence, an analytical form for a limit line is derived here as a complementary cumulative frequency (CCF) of radioactive releases to the environment. By comparing the releases from each confinement barrier against the limit line, a decision can be made about the number of barriers required to comply with the design requirements. The first barrier is the vacuum vessel (VV) and the primary heat transfer systems. The second confinement barrier consists of the cryostat vessel (CV) and the heat transfer system vaults. In case the outer building is needed to act as a third barrier for ITER, a decision model using the multi-attribute utility theory was constructed to help the designer choose the best type of tokamak building. The decision model allows for performing sensitivity analysis on relevant parameters and for design features of new options for the ITER tokamak building. (orig.)

  15. Analysis of Nursing Clinical Decision Support Requests and Strategic Plan in a Large Academic Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Kimberly; Bavuso, Karen; Bouyer-Ferullo, Sharon; Goldsmith, Denise; Fairbanks, Amanda; Gesner, Emily; Lagor, Charles; Collins, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    To understand requests for nursing Clinical Decision Support (CDS) interventions at a large integrated health system undergoing vendor-based EHR implementation. In addition, to establish a process to guide both short-term implementation and long-term strategic goals to meet nursing CDS needs. We conducted an environmental scan to understand current state of nursing CDS over three months. The environmental scan consisted of a literature review and an analysis of CDS requests received from across our health system. We identified existing high priority CDS and paper-based tools used in nursing practice at our health system that guide decision-making. A total of 46 nursing CDS requests were received. Fifty-six percent (n=26) were specific to a clinical specialty; 22 percent (n=10) were focused on facilitating clinical consults in the inpatient setting. "Risk Assessments/Risk Reduction/Promotion of Healthy Habits" (n=23) was the most requested High Priority Category received for nursing CDS. A continuum of types of nursing CDS needs emerged using the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework: 1) facilitating data capture, 2) meeting information needs, 3) guiding knowledge-based decision making, and 4) exposing analytics for wisdom-based clinical interpretation by the nurse. Identifying and prioritizing paper-based tools that can be modified into electronic CDS is a challenge. CDS strategy is an evolving process that relies on close collaboration and engagement with clinical sites for short-term implementation and should be incorporated into a long-term strategic plan that can be optimized and achieved overtime. The Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework in conjunction with the High Priority Categories established may be a useful tool to guide a strategic approach for meeting short-term nursing CDS needs and aligning with the organizational strategic plan.

  16. Combination of material flow analysis and substance flow analysis: a powerful approach for decision support in waste management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanisavljevic, Nemanja; Brunner, Paul H

    2014-08-01

    The novelty of this paper is the demonstration of the effectiveness of combining material flow analysis (MFA) with substance flow analysis (SFA) for decision making in waste management. Both MFA and SFA are based on the mass balance principle. While MFA alone has been applied often for analysing material flows quantitatively and hence to determine the capacities of waste treatment processes, SFA is more demanding but instrumental in evaluating the performance of a waste management system regarding the goals "resource conservation" and "environmental protection". SFA focuses on the transformations of wastes during waste treatment: valuable as well as hazardous substances and their transformations are followed through the entire waste management system. A substance-based approach is required because the economic and environmental properties of the products of waste management - recycling goods, residues and emissions - are primarily determined by the content of specific precious or harmful substances. To support the case that MFA and SFA should be combined, a case study of waste management scenarios is presented. For three scenarios, total material flows are quantified by MFA, and the mass flows of six indicator substances (C, N, Cl, Cd, Pb, Hg) are determined by SFA. The combined results are compared to the status quo in view of fulfilling the goals of waste management. They clearly point out specific differences between the chosen scenarios, demonstrating potentials for improvement and the value of the combination of MFA/SFA for decision making in waste management. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Multicriteria decision analysis in ranking of analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiszewski, Marek; Orłowski, Aleksander

    2015-03-27

    The study presents the possibility of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) application when choosing analytical procedures with low environmental impact. A type of MCDA, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was chosen as versatile tool that meets all the analytical chemists--decision makers requirements. Twenty five analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water samples (as an example) were selected as input alternatives to MCDA analysis. Nine different criteria describing the alternatives were chosen from different groups--metrological, economical and the most importantly--environmental impact. The weights for each criterion were obtained from questionnaires that were sent to experts, giving three different scenarios for MCDA results. The results of analysis show that PROMETHEE is very promising tool to choose the analytical procedure with respect to its greenness. The rankings for all three scenarios placed solid phase microextraction and liquid phase microextraction--based procedures high, while liquid-liquid extraction, solid phase extraction and stir bar sorptive extraction--based procedures were placed low in the ranking. The results show that although some of the experts do not intentionally choose green analytical chemistry procedures, their MCDA choice is in accordance with green chemistry principles. The PROMETHEE ranking results were compared with more widely accepted green analytical chemistry tools--NEMI and Eco-Scale. As PROMETHEE involved more different factors than NEMI, the assessment results were only weakly correlated. Oppositely, the results of Eco-Scale assessment were well-correlated as both methodologies involved similar criteria of assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. [Experience of a Break-Even Point Analysis for Make-or-Buy Decision.].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yunhee

    2006-12-01

    Cost containment through continuous quality improvement of medical service is required in an age of a keen competition of the medical market. Laboratory managers should examine the matters on make-or-buy decision periodically. On this occasion, a break-even point analysis can be useful as an analyzing tool. In this study, cost accounting and break-even point (BEP) analysis were performed in case that the immunoassay items showing a recent increase in order volume were to be in-house made. Fixed and variable costs were calculated in case that alpha fetoprotein (AFP), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), ferritin, free thyroxine (fT4), triiodothyronine (T3), thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), CA 125, CA 19-9, and hepatitis B envelope antibody (HBeAb) were to be tested with Abbott AxSYM instrument. Break-even volume was calculated as fixed cost per year divided by purchasing cost per test minus variable cost per test and BEP ratio as total purchasing costs at break-even volume divided by total purchasing costs at actual annual volume. The average fixed cost per year of AFP, CEA, PSA, ferritin, fT4, T3, TSH, CA 125, CA 19-9, and HBeAb was 8,279,187 won and average variable cost per test, 3,786 won. Average break-even volume was 1,599 and average BEP ratio was 852%. Average BEP ratio without including quality costs such as calibration and quality control was 74%. Because the quality assurance of clinical tests cannot be waived, outsourcing all of 10 items was more adequate than in-house make at the present volume in financial aspect. BEP analysis was useful as a financial tool for make-or-buy decision, the common matter which laboratory managers meet with.

  19. Supporting ALARP decision-making by cost benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, Simon; Bedford, Tim; Atherton, Elizabeth

    2001-01-01

    Current regulation in the UK and elsewhere specify upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of frequencies of various kinds of accidents and accidental releases per annum. 'As low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. We assess the suitability of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for performing ALARP ('as low as reasonably possible') assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using 'disproportionality', and the use of discounting to trade off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk-informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a non-uniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). We discuss the problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions. We argue that multi-attribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. We also argue that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which

  20. Motivational factors influencing the homeowners’ decisions between residential heating systems: An empirical analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelsen, Carl Christian; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    Heating demand accounts for a large fraction of the overall energy demand of private households in Germany. A better understanding of the adoption and diffusion of energy-efficient and renewables-based residential heating systems (RHS) is of high policy relevance, particularly against the background of climate change, security of energy supply and increasing energy prices. In this paper, we explore the multi-dimensionality of the homeowners’ motivation to decide between competing RHS. A questionnaire survey (N=2440) conducted in 2010 among homeowners who had recently installed a RHS provides the empirical foundation. Principal component analysis shows that 25 items capturing different adoption motivations can be grouped around six dimensions: (1) cost aspects, (2) general attitude towards the RHS, (3) government grant, (4) reactions to external threats (i.e., environmental or energy supply security considerations), (5) comfort considerations, and (6) influence of peers. Moreover, a cluster analysis with the identified motivational factors as segmentation variables reveals three adopter types: (1) the convenience-oriented, (2) the consequences-aware, and (3) the multilaterally-motivated RHS adopter. Finally, we show that the influence of the motivational factors on the adoption decision also differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and features of the home. - Highlights: ► Study of the multi-dimensionality of the motivation to adopt residential heating systems (RHS). ► Principal component and cluster analysis are applied to representative survey data for Germany. ► Motivation has six dimensions, including rational decision-making and emotional factors. ► Adoption motivation differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and of the home. ► Many adopters are driven by existing habits and perceptions about the convenience of the RHS

  1. Analysis for making a regulatory decision to equipment of industrial gammagraphy in Argentin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ermacora, Marcela G.; Vidal, Dora N.; Alonso, Maria T.

    2013-01-01

    Industrial gammagraphy is a practice widely used as a nondestructive testing technique in Argentina. Experience worldwide has shown the need for an improvement in the intrinsic safety of the equipment used in this lab. In response to this reason, the board of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN) has considered a proposal to withdraw service movement and much of the equipment inventory scan belonging to industrial facilities nationwide. The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the analysis performed to support the above proposal. The main elements of evaluation can be summarized as follows: I) the teams that do not conform to international recommendations regarding compliance with key safety requirements of international standards such as ISO 3999:2004 (E) R adiation protection - Industrial Apparatus for gamma radiography - Specifications for performance, design and tests ; II) the decision by some manufacturers to discontinue production of certain models of equipment and the provision of spare parts, and III) the validity of certificates bulk type B (U) for transport. In conclusion, it highlights the importance of a regulatory decision supplementary to the Standard AR 7.9.1 concerning the operation of scan equipment industry, based on current international recommendations and Argentina's commitment to good practice and safety culture which can lead to a positive impact on radiation safety in this art

  2. Decision Process Analysis on Project Priority Strategy: A Case Study of an ICT Design Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent F. Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Project priority strategy is the benchmarking of a corporate operation management strategy and in particular is used by a projects-based research and development firm in the complex competence environment of the information and communication technology (ICT industry. This research takes the variables of external environments and internal resources into account for a firm’s market, technology, and finance assets in order to present a decision process on a project priority strategy. This empirical study also addresses the key factors of the interaction between business on a project development’s supply chain: clients, the examined firm, and suppliers. The findings indicate that a profit-driven project can dominate the firm’s strategic operations and management from the resource-based view and analytic hierarchy process technique perspectives. At the same time, the analysis results contribute significant values to project decision management, which is highly recommended for small-medium enterprises conducting product/project development, project portfolio management, and strategic business management.

  3. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators.

  4. Evidence of Cognitive Bias in Decision Making Around Implantable-Cardioverter Defibrillators: A Qualitative Framework Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlock, Daniel D; Jones, Jacqueline; Nowels, Carolyn T; Jenkins, Amy; Allen, Larry A; Kutner, Jean S

    2017-11-01

    Studies have demonstrated that patients with primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) often misunderstand the ICD. Advances in behavioral economics demonstrate that some misunderstandings may be due to cognitive biases. We aimed to explore the influence of cognitive bias on ICD decision making. We used a qualitative framework analysis including 9 cognitive biases: affect heuristic, affective forecasting, anchoring, availability, default effects, halo effects, optimism bias, framing effects, and state dependence. We interviewed 48 patients from 4 settings in Denver. The majority were male (n = 32). Overall median age was 61 years. We found frequent evidence for framing, default, and halo effects; some evidence of optimism bias, affect heuristic, state dependence, anchoring and availability bias; and little or no evidence of affective forecasting. Framing effects were apparent in overestimation of benefits and downplaying or omitting potential harms. We found evidence of cognitive bias in decision making for ICD implantation. The majority of these biases appeared to encourage ICD treatment. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

    2018-05-01

    The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

  6. The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Angela L; Gauthier, Alison M; Ferracini, Tyler; Cowan, Dallas M; Kingsbury, Tony; Panko, Julie

    2017-01-01

    Manufacturers lack a reliable means for determining whether a chemical will be targeted for deselection from their supply chain. In this analysis, 3 methods for determining whether a specific chemical (triclosan) would meet the criteria necessary for being targeted for deselection are presented. The methods included a list-based approach, use of a commercially available chemical assessment software tool run in 2 modes, and a public interest evaluation. Our results indicated that triclosan was included on only 6 of the lists reviewed, none of which were particularly influential in chemical selection decisions. The results from the chemical assessment tool evaluations indicated that human and ecological toxicity for triclosan is low and received scores indicating that the chemical would be considered of low concern. However, triclosan's peak public interest tracked several years in advance of increased regulatory scrutiny of this chemical suggesting that public pressure may have been influential in deselection decisions. Key data gaps and toxicity endpoints not yet regulated such as endocrine disruption potential or phototoxicity, but that are important to estimate the trajectory for deselection of a chemical, are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:198-207. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  7. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in public bidding processes: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Andrade Longaray

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Institutions of Higher Education in Brazil (IFES play an important role in the country’s social and scientific development. Focused mainly on teaching, research and extension activities, the IFES are backed by support foundations aimed to the management of financial, human and material resources. Characterized as public bodies, the support foundations are governed by Law no 8.666/93 in what concerns the procurement of goods and services. Therefore, the present study is aimed to develop a model to assist the managers of such foundations in the selection of suppliers to participate in bidding processes that use invitation for bids. Therefore, we conducted a case study in one of the 55 foundations that support Brazilian federal universities. The intervention tool used was the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Firstly, we established the hierarchy of criteria for problem-solving. Then, a paired comparison was made between criteria for the same level. Subsequently, the consistency analysis of comparison matrices was verified. Finally, the relative priorities of each criterion were obtained and the objective function of the model was constructed. The model was tested through the assessment of the performance of three potential suppliers of IT equipment, and the result was legitimized by decision makers who found the instrument a valid tool to aid in making decisions on supplier selection for the foundation.

  8. Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

    2012-07-01

    Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Sustainability assessment of electricity generation technologies using weighted multi-criteria decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxim, Alexandru

    2014-01-01

    Solving the issue of environmental degradation due to the expansion of the World's energy demand requires a balanced approach. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively rank a large number of electricity generation technologies based on their compatibility with the sustainable development of the industry. The study is based on a set of 10 sustainability indicators which provide a life cycle analysis of the plants. The technologies are ranked using a weighted sum multi-attribute utility method. The indicator weights were established through a survey of 62 academics from the fields of energy and environmental science. Our results show that large hydroelectric projects are the most sustainable technology type, followed by small hydro, onshore wind and solar photovoltaic. We argue that political leaders should have a more structured and strategic approach in implementing sustainable energy policies and this type of research can provide arguments to support such decisions. - Highlights: • We rank 13 electricity generation technologies based on sustainability. • We use 10 indicators in a weighted sum multi-attribute utility approach. • Weights are calculated based on a survey of 62 academics from the field. • Large hydroelectric projects are ranked as the most sustainable. • Decision makers can use the results to promote a more sustainable energy industry

  10. Decision analysis for the cost effectiveness of Sestamibi Scintimammography in minimizing unnecessary biopsies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, M.W.; Hendi, P.; Schwimmer, J.; Gambhir, S.S.; Bassett, L.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess if breast cancer screening using sestamibi scintimammography (SSMM) in conjunction with mammography (MM) is cost effective in avoiding biopsies in healthy patients. Quantitative decision tree sensitivity analysis was used to compare the conventional MM alone strategy (strategy A) with two decision strategies for screening with SSMM; SSMM after an indeterminate mammogram (strategy B) or SSMM after both a positive and an indeterminate mammogram (strategy C). Cost effectiveness was measured by calculating the expected cost per patient and the average life expectancy per patient for baseline values as well as over a range of values for all of the variables of each strategy. Based on Medicare reimbursement values, strategies B and C showed a cost savings of $9 and $20 per patient respectively as compared to strategy A. This translates into respective savings of $189 and $420 million per year assuming 21 million females undergo screening each year. Strategies B and C did however have a loss of mean life expectancy of 0.000178 and 0.000222 years respectively as compared to strategy A due to interval progression of breast cancer in a small number of women. Strategies B and C significantly lowered the number of biopsies performed on healthy patients in the screening population by 750,063 and 1,557,915 biopsies respectively as compared to strategy A. These results quantitatively verify the potential utility of using SSMM in avoiding unnecessary biopsies

  11. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Elizabeth A; Hogeveen, Henk; Hillerton, J Eric

    2004-11-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat sealant in preventing a new intramammary infection in a cow free of infection in all quarters of the mammary gland at drying off. However, a potential net loss of over ł20 per cow might occur if the uninfected cow was left untreated. The only economically viable option, for a cow with one or more quarters infected at drying off, is antibiotic treatment, although a loss might still be incurred depending on the pathogen concerned and the cure rates achievable. There was a net loss for cows with quarters infected with Corynebacterium spp. at drying off, for both the teat sealant and untreated groups (ł22 and ł48, respectively) with only antibiotic-treated cows showing a gain.

  12. Analysis of management quality and management decisions made using the example of russian oil and gas companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostylev A.O.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Results of empirical surveys performed by Russian and foreign researchers with regard to behavior patterns of managers, authorized by owners to make investment decisions, are systematized. Analysis of management quality and decisions made by Russian oil and gas managers are performed using the following 2 criteria: market capitalization change and opinion of professional society. The purpose of the research is to attract attention to low management quality in Russian statowned oil and gas companies.

  13. Cost-effectiveness analysis: what it really means for transfusion medicine decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Hoch, Jeffrey S

    2009-01-01

    Some have suggested that "blood is different," and the role for cost-effectiveness is thus circumscribed. In this article, the authors start by reviewing key concepts in health economics and economic analysis methods. Examples are drawn from published blood safety studies. After explaining the underlying reasoning behind cost-effectiveness analysis, the authors point out how economic thinking is evident in some aspects of transfusion medicine. Some cost-effectiveness study results for blood safety are discussed to provide context, followed by consideration of prominent decisions that have been made in transfusion medicine field. In the last section, the authors conjecture as to why in some cases cost-effectiveness analysis appears to have greater impact than in others, noting the terrible price that is paid in mortality and morbidity when cost-effectiveness analysis is ignored. In this context, the implications of opportunity cost are discussed, and it is noted that opportunity cost should not be viewed as benefits forgone by concentrating on one aspect of blood safety and instead should be viewed as our societal willingness to misallocate resources to achieve less health for the same cost.

  14. Safety margins of operating reactors. Analysis of uncertainties and implications for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Maintaining safety in the design and operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is a very important task under the conditions of a challenging environment, affected by the deregulated electricity market and implementation of risk informed regulations. In Member States, advanced computer codes are widely used as safety analysis tools in the framework of licensing of new NPP projects, safety upgrading programmes of existing NPPs, periodic safety reviews, renewal of operating licences, use of the safety margins for reactor power uprating, better utilization of nuclear fuel and higher operational flexibility, for justification of lifetime extensions, development of new emergency operating procedures, analysis of operational events, and development of accident management programmes. The issue of inadequate quality of safety analysis is becoming important due to a general tendency to use advanced tools for better establishment and utilization of safety margins, while the existence of such margins assure that NPPs operate safely in all modes of operation and at all times. The most important safety margins relate to physical barriers against release of radioactive material, such as fuel matrix and fuel cladding, reactor coolant system boundary, and the containment. Typically, safety margins are determined with use of computational tools for safety analysis. Advanced best estimate computer codes are suggested e.g. in the IAEA Safety Guide on Safety Assessment and Verification for Nuclear Power Plants to be used for current safety analysis. Such computer codes require their careful application to avoid unjustified reduction in robustness of the reactor safety. The issue of uncertainties in safety analyses and their impact on evaluation of safety margins is addressed in a number of IAEA guidance documents, in particular in the Safety Report on Accident Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants. It is also discussed in various technical meetings and workshops devoted to this area. The

  15. How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

    2016-10-01

    Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Frenová

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

  17. Comparison of rule induction, decision trees and formal concept analysis approaches for classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotelnikov, E. V.; Milov, V. R.

    2018-05-01

    Rule-based learning algorithms have higher transparency and easiness to interpret in comparison with neural networks and deep learning algorithms. These properties make it possible to effectively use such algorithms to solve descriptive tasks of data mining. The choice of an algorithm depends also on its ability to solve predictive tasks. The article compares the quality of the solution of the problems with binary and multiclass classification based on the experiments with six datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The authors investigate three algorithms: Ripper (rule induction), C4.5 (decision trees), In-Close (formal concept analysis). The results of the experiments show that In-Close demonstrates the best quality of classification in comparison with Ripper and C4.5, however the latter two generate more compact rule sets.

  18. Advances in intelligent analysis of medical data and decision support systems

    CERN Document Server

    Iantovics, Barna

    2013-01-01

    This volume is a result of the fruitful and vivid discussions during the MedDecSup'2012 International Workshop bringing together a relevant body of knowledge, and new developments in the increasingly important field of medical informatics. This carefully edited book presents new ideas aimed at the development of intelligent processing of various kinds of medical information and the perfection of the contemporary computer systems for medical decision support. The book presents advances of the medical information systems for intelligent archiving, processing, analysis and search-by-content which will improve the quality of the medical services for every patient and of the global healthcare system. The book combines in a synergistic way theoretical developments with the practicability of the approaches developed and presents the last developments and achievements in  medical informatics to a broad range of readers: engineers, mathematicians, physicians, and PhD students.

  19. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Material Selection of High Energy Performance Residential Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čuláková, Monika; Vilčeková, Silvia; Katunská, Jana; Krídlová Burdová, Eva

    2013-11-01

    In world with limited amount of energy sources and with serious environmental pollution, interest in comparing the environmental embodied impacts of buildings using different structure systems and alternative building materials will be increased. This paper shows the significance of life cycle energy and carbon perspective and the material selection in reducing energy consumption and emissions production in the built environment. The study evaluates embodied environmental impacts of nearly zero energy residential structures. The environmental assessment uses framework of LCA within boundary: cradle to gate. Designed alternative scenarios of material compositions are also assessed in terms of energy effectiveness through selected thermal-physical parameters. This study uses multi-criteria decision analysis for making clearer selection between alternative scenarios. The results of MCDA show that alternative E from materials on nature plant base (wood, straw bales, massive wood panel) present possible way to sustainable perspective of nearly zero energy houses in Slovak republic

  20. Predicting the decision to pursue mediation in civil disputes: a hierarchical classes analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Warren A; Kressel, Kenneth; Scanlon, Kathleen M; Weiner, Gary A

    2007-11-01

    Clients (N = 185) involved in civil court cases completed the CPR Institute's Mediation Screen, which is designed to assist in making a decision about pursuing mediation. The authors modeled data using hierarchical classes analysis (HICLAS), a clustering algorithm that places clients into 1 set of classes and CPRMS items into another set of classes. HICLAS then links the sets of classes so that any class of clients can be identified in terms of the classes of items they endorsed. HICLAS-derived item classes reflected 2 underlying themes: (a) suitability of the dispute for a problem-solving process and (b) potential benefits of mediation. All clients who perceived that mediation would be beneficial also believed that the context of their conflict was favorable to mediation; however, not all clients who saw a favorable context believed they would benefit from mediation. The majority of clients who agreed to pursue mediation endorsed items reflecting both contextual suitability and perceived benefits of mediation.