Sample records for irregular droughts trigger

  1. Drought occurence (United States)

    John W. Coulston


    Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...

  2. NAC transcription factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 enhances drought tolerance in tomato

    KAUST Repository

    Thirumalaikumar, Venkatesh P.; Devkar, Vikas; Mehterov, Nikolay; Ali, Shawkat; Ozgur, Rengin; Turkan, Ismail; Mueller-Roeber, Bernd; Balazadeh, Salma


    Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition

  3. Drought-Stressed Tomato Plants Trigger Bottom-Up Effects on the Invasive Tetranychus evansi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel G Ximénez-Embún

    Full Text Available Climate change will bring more drought periods that will have an impact on the irrigation practices of some crops like tomato, from standard water regime to deficit irrigation. This will promote changes in plant metabolism and alter their interactions with biotic stressors. We have tested if mild or moderate drought-stressed tomato plants (simulating deficit irrigation have an effect on the biological traits of the invasive tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi. Our data reveal that T evansi caused more leaf damage to drought-stressed tomato plants (≥1.5 fold for both drought scenarios. Mite performance was also enhanced, as revealed by significant increases of eggs laid (≥2 fold at 4 days post infestation (dpi, and of mobile forms (≥2 fold and 1.5 fold for moderate and mild drought, respectively at 10 dpi. The levels of several essential amino acids (histidine, isoleucine, leucine, tyrosine, valine and free sugars in tomato leaves were significantly induced by drought in combination with mites. The non-essential amino acid proline was also strongly induced, stimulating mite feeding and egg laying when added to tomato leaf disks at levels equivalent to that estimated on drought-infested tomato plants at 10 dpi. Tomato plant defense proteins were also affected by drought and/or mite infestation, but T. evansi was capable of circumventing their potential adverse effects. Altogether, our data indicate that significant increases of available free sugars and essential amino acids, jointly with their phagostimulant effect, created a favorable environment for a better T. evansi performance on drought-stressed tomato leaves. Thus, drought-stressed tomato plants, even at mild levels, may be more prone to T evansi outbreaks in a climate change scenario, which might negatively affect tomato production on area-wide scales.


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    ABSTRACT. Drought and high temperatures are said to have triggered increased tree mortality and could be linked to the menace of climate change. This research therefore investigated the effect of drought stress on early growth of Adansonia digitata where seedlings were exposed to different watering frequencies (Once ...

  5. Improved tolerance to post-anthesis drought stress by pre-drought priming at vegetative stages in drought-tolerant and -sensitive wheat cultivars. (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Tian, Zhongwei; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Liu, Yang; Cui, Yakun; Zahoor, Rizwan; Jiang, Dong; Dai, Tingbo


    Wheat crop endures a considerable penalty of yield reduction to escape the drought events during post-anthesis period. Drought priming under a pre-drought stress can enhance the crop potential to tolerate the subsequent drought stress by triggering a faster and stronger defense mechanism. Towards these understandings, a set of controlled moderate drought stress at 55-60% field capacity (FC) was developed to prime the plants of two wheat cultivars namely Luhan-7 (drought tolerant) and Yangmai-16 (drought sensitive) during tillering (Feekes 2 stage) and jointing (Feekes 6 stage), respectively. The comparative response of primed and non-primed plants, cultivars and priming stages was evaluated by applying a subsequent severe drought stress at 7 days after anthesis. The results showed that primed plants of both cultivars showed higher potential to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress through improved leaf water potential, more chlorophyll, and ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase contents, enhanced photosynthesis, better photoprotection and efficient enzymatic antioxidant system leading to less yield reductions. The primed plants of Luhan-7 showed higher capability to adapt the drought stress events than Yangmai-16. The positive effects of drought priming to sustain higher grain yield were pronounced in plants primed at tillering than those primed at jointing. In consequence, upregulated functioning of photosynthetic apparatus and efficient enzymatic antioxidant activities in primed plants indicated their superior potential to alleviate a subsequently occurring drought stress, which contributed to lower yield reductions than non-primed plants. However, genotypic and priming stages differences in response to drought stress also contributed to affect the capability of primed plants to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress conditions in wheat. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  6. Target Tracking of a Linear Time Invariant System under Irregular Sampling

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    Jin Xue-Bo


    Full Text Available Due to event-triggered sampling in a system, or maybe with the aim of reducing data storage, tracking many applications will encounter irregular sampling time. By calculating the matrix exponential using an inverse Laplace transform, this paper transforms the irregular sampling tracking problem to the problem of tracking with time-varying parameters of a system. Using the common Kalman filter, the developed method is used to track a target for the simulated trajectory and video tracking. The results of simulation experiments have shown that it can obtain good estimation performance even at a very high irregular rate of measurement sampling time.

  7. Quantification of agricultural drought occurrence as an estimate for insurance programs (United States)

    Bannayan, M.; Hoogenboom, G.


    Temporal irregularities of rainfall and drought have major impacts on rainfed cropping systems. The main goal of this study was to develop an approach for realizing drought occurrence based on local winter wheat yield loss and rainfall. The domain study included 11 counties in the state of Washington that actively grow rainfed winter wheat and an uncertainty rainfall evaluation model using daily rainfall values from 1985 to 2007. An application was developed that calculates a rainfall index for insurance that was then used to determine the drought intensity for each study year and for each study site. Evaluation of the drought intensity showed that both the 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 growing seasons were stressful years for most of the study locations, while the 2005-2006 and the 2006-2007 growing seasons experienced the lowest drought intensity for all locations. Our results are consistent with local extension reports of drought occurrences. Quantification of drought intensity based on this application could provide a convenient index for insurance companies for determining the effect of rainfall and drought on crop yield loss under the varying weather conditions of semi-arid regions.

  8. Improving Federal Response to Drought. (United States)

    Wilhite, Donald A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Glantz, Michael H.


    Severe and widespread drought occurred over a large portion of the United States between 1974 and 1977. Impacts on agriculture and other industries, as well as local water supplies, were substantial. The federal government responded with forty assistance programs administered by sixteen federal agencies. Assistance was provided primarily in the form of loans and grants to people, businesses and governments experiencing hardship caused by drought. The total cost of the program is estimated at $7-8 billion.Federal response to the mid-1970s drought was largely untimely, ineffective and poorly coordinated. Four recommendations are offered that, if implemented, would improve future drought assessment and response efforts: 1) reliable and timely informational products and dissemination plans; 2) improved impact assessment techniques, especially in the agricultural sector, for use by government to identify periods of enhanced risk and to trigger assistance measures; 3) administratively centralized drought declaration procedures that are well publicized and consistently applied; and 4) standby assistance measures that encourage appropriate levels of risk management by producers and that are equitable, consistent and predictable. The development of a national drought plan that incorporates these four items is recommended. Atmospheric scientists have an important role to play in the collection and interpretation of near-real time weather data for use by government decision makers.

  9. Irregular working hours and fatigue of cabin crew. (United States)

    Castro, Marta; Carvalhais, José; Teles, Júlia


    Beyond workload and specific environmental factors, flight attendants can be exposed to irregular working hours, conflicting with their circadian rhythms and having a negative impact in sleep, fatigue, health, social and family life, and performance which is critical to both safety and security in flight operations. This study focuses on the irregular schedules of cabin crew as a trigger of fatigue symptoms in a wet lease Portuguese airline. The aim was to analyze: what are the requirements of the cabin crew work; whether the schedules being observed and effective resting timeouts are triggering factors of fatigue; and the existence of fatigue symptoms in the cabin crew. A questionnaire has been adapted and applied to a sample of 73 cabin crew-members (representing 61.9% of the population), 39 females and 34 males, with an average age of 27.68 ± 4.27 years. Our data indicate the presence of fatigue and corresponding health symptoms among the airline cabin crew, despite of the sample favorable characteristics. Senior workers and women are more affected. Countermeasures are required. Recommendations can be made regarding the fatigue risk management, including work organization, education and awareness training programmes and specific countermeasures.

  10. Effect of drought stress on early growth of Adansonia digitata (L.) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought and high temperatures are said to have triggered increased tree mortality and could be linked to the menace of climate change. This research therefore investigated the effect of drought stress on early growth of Adansonia digitata where seedlings were exposed to different watering frequencies (Once daily, after 3, ...

  11. Understanding the land-atmospheric interaction in drought forecast from CFSv2 for the 2011 Texas and 2012 Upper Midwest US droughts (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Roundy, J. K.; Ek, M. B.; Wood, E. F.


    Prediction and thus preparedness in advance of hydrological extremes, such as drought and flood events, is crucial for proactively reducing their social and economic impacts. In the summers of 2011 Texas, and 2012 the Upper Midwest, experienced intense droughts that affected crops and the food market in the US. It is expected that seasonal forecasts with sufficient skill would reduce the negative impacts through planning and preparation. However, the forecast skill from models such as Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is low over the US, especially during the warm season (Jun - Sep), which restricts their practical use for drought prediction. This study analyzes the processes that lead to premature termination of 2011 and 2012 US summer droughts in CFSv2 forecast resulting in its low forecast skill. Using the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS2) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as references, this study investigates the forecast skills of CFSv2 initialized at 00, 06, 12, 18z from May 15 - 31 (leads out to September) for each event in terms of land-atmosphere interaction, through a recently developed Coupling Drought Index (CDI), which is based on the Convective Triggering Potential-Humidity Index-soil moisture (CTP-HI-SM) classification of four climate regimes: wet coupling, dry coupling, transitional and atmospherically controlled. A recycling model is used to trace the moisture sources in the CFSv2 forecasts of anomalous precipitation, which lead to the breakdown of drought conditions and a lack of drought forecasting skills. This is then compared with tracing the moisture source in CFSR with the same recycling model, which is used as the verification for the same periods. This helps to identify the parameterization that triggered precipitation in CFSv2 during 2011 and 2012 summer in the US thus has the potential to improve the forecast skill of CSFv2.

  12. Drought stress tolerance strategies revealed by RNA-Seq in two sorghum genotypes with contrasting WUE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fracasso, Alessandra; Trindade, Luisa M.; Amaducci, Stefano


    Background: Drought stress is the major environmental stress that affects plant growth and productivity. It triggers a wide range of responses detectable at molecular, biochemical and physiological levels. At the molecular level the response to drought stress results in the differential

  13. Magnetic storm effect on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at an equatorial station in the African sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olushola Abel Oladipo


    Full Text Available Large-scale ionospheric irregularities usually measured by GPS TEC fluctuation indices are regular occurrence at the equatorial region shortly after sunset around solar maximum. Magnetic storm can trigger or inhibit the generation of these irregularities depending on the local time the main phase of a particular storm occurs. We studied the effect of nine (9 distinct storms on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at Fraceville in Gabon (Lat = −1.63˚, Long = 13.55˚, dip lat. = −15.94˚, an equatorial station in the African sector. These storms occurred between November 2001 and September 2002. We used TEC fluctuation indices (i.e. ROTI and ROTIAVE estimated from 30 s interval Rinex data and also we used the storm indices (i.e. Dst, dDst/dt, and IMF BZ to predict the likely effect of each storm on the irregularities occurrence at this station. The results obtained showed that most of the storms studied inhibited ionospheric irregularities. Only one out of all the storms studied (i.e. September 4, 2002 storms with the main phase on the night of September 7-8 triggered post-midnight ionospheric irregularities. There are two of the storms during which ionospheric irregularities were observed. However, these may not be solely attributed to the storms event because the level of irregularities observed during these two storms is comparable to that observed during previous days before the storms. For this station and for the storms investigated, it seems like a little modification to the use of Aarons categories in terms of the local time the maximum negative Dst occurs could lead to a better prediction. However, it would require investigating many storms during different level of solar activities and at different latitudes to generalize this modification.

  14. Evaluation of groundwater droughts in Austria (United States)

    Haas, Johannes Christoph; Birk, Steffen


    Droughts are abnormally dry periods that affect various aspects of human life on earth, ranging from negative impacts on agriculture or industry, to being the cause for conflict and loss of human life. The changing climate reinforces the importance of investigations into this phenomenon. Various methods to analyze and classify droughts have been developed. These include drought indices such as the Standard Precipitation Index SPI, the Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI or the Crop Moisture Index CMI. These and other indices consider meteorological parameters and/or their effects on soil moisture. A depletion of soil moisture triggered by low precipitation and high evapotranspiration may also cause reduced groundwater recharge and thus decreasing groundwater levels and reduced groundwater flow to springs, streams, and wetlands. However, the existing indices were generally not designed to address such drought effects on groundwater. Thus, a Standardized Groundwater level Index has recently been proposed by Bloomfied and Marchant (2013). Yet, to our knowledge, this approach has only been applied to consolidated aquifers in the UK. This work analyzes time series of groundwater levels from various, mostly unconsolidated aquifers in Austria in order to characterize the effects of droughts on aquifers in different hydrogeologic and climatic settings as well as under different usage scenarios. In particular, comparisons are made between the water rich Alpine parts of Austria, and the dryer parts situated in the East. The time series of groundwater levels are compared to other data, such as meteorological time series and written weather records about generally accepted phenomena, such as the 2003 European drought and heat wave. Thus, valuable insight is gained into the propagation of meteorological droughts through the soil and the aquifer in different types of hydrogeologic and climatic settings, which provides a prerequisite for the assessment of the aquifers' drought

  15. A Look into the National Drought Mitigation Center: Providing 15 Years of Drought Services (Invited) (United States)

    Svoboda, M. D.; Hayes, M. J.; Knutson, C. L.; Wardlow, B. D.


    drought conditions across the United States. It has been used by policy makers to trigger relief programs, by states in their monitoring efforts, and by the media and public through coverage in newspapers and on TV. The DIR has been on-line at the NDMC since 2005; it has more than 14,000 reports and impacts of drought in six basic categories: agriculture, water/energy, environment, fire, social, and other. The most recent activity (currently underway through NOAA funding) is seen in our work with five pilot communities in Illinois, Nebraska, and Oklahoma to establish a new “Drought Ready Community” (DRC) program, developing a community-driven process for integrating place-based planning to reduce vulnerability to drought. Many of these tools have included an extensive iterative process with stakeholders around the country, through means such as workshops, listening sessions, forums, and evaluator networks. The NDMC also serves in an advisory capacity to policy makers and others by providing scientific and policy-relevant information on a variety of drought and water management issues. In moving forward toward a national climate service, the NDMC is well positioned and experienced in helping connect users globally with the latest in “drought services”.

  16. A novel gene of Kalanchoe daigremontiana confers plant drought resistance. (United States)

    Wang, Li; Zhu, Chen; Jin, Lin; Xiao, Aihua; Duan, Jie; Ma, Luyi


    Kalanchoe (K.) daigremontiana is important for studying asexual reproduction under different environmental conditions. Here, we describe a novel KdNOVEL41 (KdN41) gene that may confer drought resistance and could thereby affect K. daigremontiana development. The detected subcellular localization of a KdN41/Yellow Fluorescent Protein (YFP) fusion protein was in the nucleus and cell membrane. Drought, salt, and heat stress treatment in tobacco plants containing the KdN41 gene promoter driving β-glucuronidase (GUS) gene transcription revealed that only drought stress triggered strong GUS staining in the vascular tissues. Overexpression (OE) of the KdN41 gene conferred improved drought resistance in tobacco plants compared to wild-type and transformed with empty vector plants by inducing higher antioxidant enzyme activities, decreasing cell membrane damage, increasing abscisic acid (ABA) content, causing reinforced drought resistance related gene expression profiles. The 3,3'-diaminobenzidine (DAB) and nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) staining results also showed less relative oxygen species (ROS) content in KdN41-overexpressing tobacco leaf during drought stress. Surprisingly, by re-watering after drought stress, KdN41-overexpressing tobacco showed earlier flowering. Overall, the KdN41 gene plays roles in ROS scavenging and osmotic damage reduction to improve tobacco drought resistance, which may increase our understanding of the molecular network involved in developmental manipulation under drought stress in K. daigremontiana.

  17. A Novel Non-coding RNA Regulates Drought Stress Tolerance in Arabidopsis thaliana

    KAUST Repository

    Albesher, Nour H.


    Drought (soil water deficit) as a major adverse environmental condition can result in serious reduction in plant growth and crop production. Plants respond and adapt to drought stresses by triggering various signalling pathways leading to physiological, metabolic and developmental changes that may ultimately contribute to enhanced tolerance to the stress. Here, a novel non-coding RNA (ncRNA) involved in plant drought stress tolerance was identified. We showed that increasing the expression of this ncRNA led to enhanced sensitivity during seed germination and seedling growth to the phytohormone abscisic acid. The mutant seedlings are also more sensitive to osmotic stress inhibition of lateral root growth. Consistently, seedlings with enhanced expression of this ncRNA exhibited reduced transiprational water loss and were more drought-tolerant than the wild type. Future analyses of the mechanism for its role in drought tolerance may help us to understand how plant drought tolerance could be further regulated by this novel ncRNA.

  18. Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective (United States)

    Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun


    The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

  19. The Lifecycles of Drought: Informing Responses Across Timescales (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Schubert, S. D.


    Drought is a slow-onset hazard that is a normal part of climate. Drought onset and demise are difficult to determine. Impacts are mostly nonstructural, spread over large geographical areas, and can persist long after precipitation deficits end. These factors hinder development of accurate, timely estimates of drought severity and resultant responses. Drivers of drought range from SST anomalies and global scale atmospheric response, through regional forcing and local land-surface feedbacks. Key climatological questions related to drought risk assessment, perception and management include, "Does a drought end by a return to normal precipitation; how much moisture is required and over what period; can the end of a drought be defined by the diminishing impacts e.g. soil moisture, reservoir volumes; will precipitation patterns on which management systems rely, change in the future?" Effective early warning systems inform strategic responses that anticipate crises and crisis evolution across climate timescales. While such "early information" is critical for defining event onset, it is even more critical for identifying the potential for increases in severity. Many social and economic systems have buffers in place to respond to onset (storage, transfers and purchase of grain) but lack response capabilities as drought intensifies, as buffers are depleted. Throughout the drought lifecycle (and between events), monitoring, research and risk assessments are required to: Map decision-making processes and resource capabilities including degradation of water and ecosystems Place multiple climate and land surface indicators within a consistent triggering framework (e.g. climate and vegetation mapping) before critical thresholds are reached Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information, through policy gaming and other exercises The presentation will outline the capabilities and framework needed to ensure improved scientific inputs to preparedness

  20. Drought induced changes of leaf-to-root relationships in two tomato genotypes. (United States)

    Moles, Tommaso Michele; Mariotti, Lorenzo; De Pedro, Leandro Federico; Guglielminetti, Lorenzo; Picciarelli, Piero; Scartazza, Andrea


    Water deficit triggers a dynamic and integrated cross-talk between leaves and roots. Tolerant plants have developed several physiological and molecular mechanisms to establish new cell metabolism homeostasis, avoiding and/or escaping from permanent impairments triggered by drought. Two tomato genotypes (a Southern Italy landrace called Ciettaicale and the well-known commercial cultivar Moneymaker) were investigated at vegetative stage to assess leaf and root metabolic strategies under 20 days of water deficit. Physiological and metabolic changes, in terms of ABA, IAA, proline, soluble sugars and phenols contents, occurred in both tomato genotypes under water stress. Overall, our results pointed out the higher plasticity of Ciettaicale to manage plant water status under drought in order to preserve the source-sink relationships. This aim was achieved by maintaining a more efficient leaf photosystem II (PSII) photochemistry, as suggested by chlorophyll fluorescence parameters, associated with a major investment towards root growth and activity to improve water uptake. On the contrary, the higher accumulation of carbon compounds, resulting from reduced PSII photochemistry and enhanced starch reserve mobilization, in leaves and roots of Moneymaker under drought could play a key role in the osmotic adjustment, although causing a feedback disruption of the source-sink relations. This hypothesis was also supported by the different drought-induced redox unbalance, as suggested by H 2 O 2 and MDA contents. This could affect both PSII photochemistry and root activity, leading to a major involvement of NPQ and antioxidant system in response to drought in Moneymaker than Ciettaicale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Irregular Applications: Architectures & Algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feo, John T.; Villa, Oreste; Tumeo, Antonino; Secchi, Simone


    Irregular applications are characterized by irregular data structures, control and communication patterns. Novel irregular high performance applications which deal with large data sets and require have recently appeared. Unfortunately, current high performance systems and software infrastructures executes irregular algorithms poorly. Only coordinated efforts by end user, area specialists and computer scientists that consider both the architecture and the software stack may be able to provide solutions to the challenges of modern irregular applications.

  2. Innovation in drought risk management: exploring the potential of weather index insurance (United States)

    Iglesias, E.; Baez, K.


    Many family farming and indigenous communities depend on grazing livestock activities and are particularly prone to drought risks. Vulnerability to drought limits the ability of these households to exit poverty and in many cases leads to environmental degradation. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems and eventually results in welfare losses for rural families. The advantages of farmers who have access to financial tools have been widely acknowledged. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers' access to risk management tools. One of the main problems in insurance design relates to the lack of quality data to estimate the risk premium. In rural areas where there are no historical records of farm production data on adverse events such as drought. New technologies such as remote sensing help to overcome this problem and generate information from these areas that otherwise would be impossible or too expensive to obtain. In this paper, we use a satellite based vegetation index (NDVI) and develop a stochastic model to analyse the potential of index insurance to address the risk of drought in Chilean grazing lands. Our results suggest that contract design is a key issue to improve the correlation of the index with individual farm losses, thus reducing basis risk. In particular, we find that the definition of homogeneous areas and the selection of the triggering index threshold are critical issues and show the incidence of different contract designs on (i) the probability that the farmer experience losses but does not receive compensation (false negative) and (ii) the probability that the index triggers compensation but the farmer does not experience drought losses (false negative). Both aspects are key issues to offer the farmer an adequate protection against droughts and guarantee the affordability of the risk premium.

  3. NAC transcription factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 enhances drought tolerance in tomato

    KAUST Repository

    Thirumalaikumar, Venkatesh P.


    Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition of photosynthesis, the accumulation of cell-damaging reactive oxygen species, and gene expression reprogramming, besides others. Transcription factors (TF) are central regulators of transcriptional reprogramming and expression of many TF genes is affected by drought, including members of the NAC family. Here, we identify the NAC factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) as a regulator of drought tolerance in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). Expression of tomato JUB1 (SlJUB1) is enhanced by various abiotic stresses, including drought. Inhibiting SlJUB1 by virus-induced gene silencing drastically lowers drought tolerance concomitant with an increase in ion leakage, an elevation of hydrogen peroxide (H2 O2 ) levels, and a decrease of the expression of various drought-responsive genes. In contrast, overexpression of AtJUB1 from Arabidopsis thaliana increases drought tolerance in tomato, alongside with a higher relative leaf water content during drought and reduced H2 O2 levels. AtJUB1 was previously shown to stimulate expression of DREB2A, a TF involved in drought responses, and of the DELLA genes GAI and RGL1. We show here that SlJUB1 similarly controls the expression of the tomato orthologs SlDREB1, SlDREB2, and SlDELLA. Furthermore, AtJUB1 directly binds to the promoters of SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA in tomato. Our study highlights JUB1 as a transcriptional regulator of drought tolerance and suggests considerable conservation of the abiotic stress-related gene regulatory networks controlled by this NAC factor between Arabidopsis and tomato. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  4. Coordinate changes in photosynthesis, sugar accumulation and antioxidative enzymes improve the performance of Jatropha curcas plants under drought stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Evandro N.; Ribeiro, Rafael V.; Ferreira-Silva, Sérgio L.; Vieira, Suyanne A.; Ponte, Luiz F.A.; Silveira, Joaquim A.G.


    The aim of this study was to assess the relationships between photosynthesis, sugars and photo-oxidative protection mechanisms in Jatropha curcas under drought stress. Leaf CO 2 assimilation rate (P N ) and instantaneous carboxylation efficiency decreased progressively as the water deficit increased. The sucrose and reducing sugar concentrations were negatively and highly correlated with photosynthesis indicating a modulation by negative feedback mechanism. The alternative electron sinks (ETR s '/P N ), relative excess of light energy (EXC) and non-photochemical quenching were strongly increased by drought, indicating effective mechanisms of energy excess dissipation. The photochemistry data indicate partial preservation of photosystem II integrity and function even under severe drought. EXC was positively correlated with superoxide dismutase (SOD) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) activities evidencing an effective role of these enzymes in the oxidative protection against excess of reactive oxygen species in chloroplasts. Leaf H 2 O 2 content and lipid peroxidation were inversely and highly correlated with catalase (CAT) activity indicating that drought-induced inhibition of this enzyme might have allowed oxidative damage. Our data suggest that drought triggers a coordinate down-regulation in photosynthesis through sucrose and reducing sugar accumulation and an energy excess dissipation at PSII level by non-photochemical mechanisms associate with enhancement in photorespiration, restricting photo-damages. In parallel, drought up-regulates SOD and APX activities avoiding accumulation of reactive oxygen species, while CAT activity is not able to avoid H 2 O 2 accumulation in drought-stressed J. curcas leaves. -- Highlights: ► Drought triggers a down-regulation in photosynthesis by sucrose and reducing sugar. ► Drought induces energy dissipation at PSII level and increase in photorespiration. ► Drought up-regulates SOD and APX activities avoiding accumulation of

  5. On the issue of drought-tolerant ornamental woody plants the Black Sea coast (near Sochi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karpun Yuriy Nikolaevich


    Full Text Available The summer-autumn drought, when rainfall in July - September, less than 200 mm, a significant limiting factor for ornamental woody plants of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus. In the region under dry periods are irregular, the study of their impact on plants is problematic and delayed for many years. The last drought was in 2015, when the three months fell only 87 mm of rainfall. In the last days of the dry period were examined 501 views and intraspecific taxa belonging to 112 genera, bushy evergreen shrubs and trees, as the most vulnerable. Evaluation of drought resistance was evaluated according to our 3-point system, and the results were analyzed in the context of consolidated floristic regions. The results showed adequate drought tolerance, not less than 65 %, cultivated in the region of evergreen shrubs and bushy trees mainly from East Asia and the Mediterranean. Among the species that are recommended for mass plantings, for the pre-emptive use of landscaping and street-resistant plants 67-80 %. All this ensures stability and high decorative plants ofSochi city.

  6. Limited growth recovery after drought-induced forest dieback in very defoliated trees of two pine species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo eGuada


    Full Text Available Mediterranean pine forests display high resilience after extreme climatic events such as severe droughts. However, recent dry spells causing growth decline and triggering forest dieback challenge the capacity of some forests to recover following major disturbances. To describe how resilient the responses of forests to drought can be, we quantified growth dynamics in plantations of two pine species (Scots pine, black pine located in south-eastern Spain and showing drought-triggered dieback. Radial growth was characterized at inter- (tree-ring width and intra-annual (xylogenesis scales in three defoliation levels. It was assumed that the higher defoliation the more negative the impact of drought on tree growth. Tree-ring width chronologies were built and xylogenesis was characterized three years after the last severe drought occurred. Annual growth data and the number of tracheids produced in different stages of xylem formation were related to climate data at several time scales. Drought negatively impacted growth of the most defoliated trees in both pine species. In Scots pine, xylem formation started earlier in the non-defoliated than in the most defoliated trees. Defoliated trees presented the shortest duration of the radial-enlargement phase in both species. On average the most defoliated trees formed 60% of the number of mature tracheids formed by the non-defoliated trees in both species. Since radial enlargement is the xylogenesis phase most tightly related to final growth, this explains why the most defoliated trees grew the least due to their altered xylogenesis phases. Our findings indicate a very limited resilience capacity of drought-defoliated Scots and black pines. Moreover, droughts produce legacy effects on xylogenesis of highly defoliated trees which could not recover previous growth rates and are thus more prone to die.

  7. Asia’s glaciers are a regionally important buffer against drought (United States)

    Pritchard, Hamish D.


    The high mountains of Asia—encompassing the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Pamir Alai, Kunlun Shan, and Tian Shan mountains—have the highest concentration of glaciers globally, and 800 million people depend in part on meltwater from them. Water stress makes this region vulnerable economically and socially to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water. Here I show that these glaciers provide summer meltwater to rivers and aquifers that is sufficient for the basic needs of 136 million people, or most of the annual municipal and industrial needs of Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During drought summers, meltwater dominates water inputs to the upper Indus and Aral river basins. Uncertainties in mountain precipitation are poorly known, but, given the magnitude of this water supply, predicted glacier loss would add considerably to drought-related water stress. Such additional water stress increases the risk of social instability, conflict and sudden, uncontrolled population migrations triggered by water scarcity, which is already associated with the large and rapidly growing populations and hydro-economies of these basins.

  8. Evaluation of Spring Wheat (20 Varieties Adaptation to Soil Drought during Seedlings Growth Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolanta Biesaga-Kościelniak


    Full Text Available The effect of soil drought (10 days on the growth of plants, the accumulation of water and leakage of electrolytes, gas exchange, the contents of chl a + b and carotenoids in leaves and photochemical activity of photosystem II was studied at the seedling stage by transient fluorescent analysis in 20 of the popular varieties of polish spring wheat. Drought caused a particularly strong reduction in vigor of growth of seedlings, net photosynthesis rate and triggered an increase in electrolyte leakage from the leaves. Certain varieties during the drought demonstrated relatively intense CO2 assimilation at low water loss through transpiration. The varieties tested were significantly different in terms of tolerance to drought of the processes of gas exchange and seedlings development. Photochemical processes in PSII showed high tolerance to drought and at the same time low differentiation among varieties. The results obtained suggested that tolerance of growth parameters to drought and CO2 assimilation at the seedling stage may alleviate consequent depression of final yield of the grain.

  9. Ectomycorrhizal inoculation with Pisolithus tinctorius reduces stress induced by drought in cork oak. (United States)

    Sebastiana, Mónica; da Silva, Anabela Bernardes; Matos, Ana Rita; Alcântara, André; Silvestre, Susana; Malhó, Rui


    We investigated whether the performance of cork oak under drought could be improved by colonization with the ectomycorrhizal fungus Pisolithus tinctorius. Results show that inoculation alone had a positive effect on plant height, shoot biomass, shoot basal diameter, and root growth. Under drought, root growth of mycorrhizal plants was significantly increased showing that inoculation was effective in increasing tolerance to drought. In accordance, mycorrhizal plants subjected to drought showed less symptoms of stress when compared to non-mycorrhizal plants, such as lower concentration of soluble sugars and starch, increased ability to maintain fatty acid content and composition, and increased unsaturation level of membrane lipids. After testing some of the mechanisms suggested to contribute to the enhanced tolerance of mycorrhizal plants to drought, we could not find any by which Pisolithus tinctorius could benefit cork oak, at least under the drought conditions imposed in our experiment. Inoculation did not increase photosynthesis under drought, suggesting no effect in sustaining stomatal opening at low soil water content. Similarly, plant water status was not affected by inoculation suggesting that P. tinctorius does not contribute to an increased plant water uptake during drought. Inoculation did increase nitrogen concentration in plants but it was independent of the water status. Furthermore, no significant mycorrhizal effect on drought-induced ROS production or osmotic adjustment was detected, suggesting that these factors are not important for the improved drought tolerance triggered by P. tinctorius.

  10. The drought of the 1890s in south-eastern Africa (United States)

    Pribyl, Kathleen; Nash, David; Klein, Jorgen; Endfield, Georgina


    During the second half of the 1890s south-eastern Africa, from modern day Zimbabwe and Botswana down to South Africa, was hit by a drought driven ecological crisis. Using instrumental observations and previously unexploited documentary records in the form of British administrative sources, reports and letters by various Protestant mission societies and newspapers, the extent, duration and severity of the drought are explored. Generally the period was marked by a delayed onset of the rainy season of several months; rainfall totals dropped and perennial rivers such as the Limpopo dried up. The delay of the rainy season negatively impacted the rain-fed agriculture. Recurrent drought conditions during the rainy season frequently withered the young crops. In the interior of southern Africa, on the border of the Kalahari desert, the drought was more severe and continuous than towards the coast of the Indian Ocean. The prolonged dry conditions furthered the outbreak of locust plagues and cattle disease, which in the 1890s took the disastrous form of Rinderpest. A model is established showing how the drought as the original driver of the crisis, triggered a cascade of responses from harvest failure to famine and finally leading to profound socio-economic change.

  11. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen


    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  12. Water stress as a trigger of demand change: exploring the implications for drought planning (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.


    Drought in the Anthropocene is a function of both supply and demand. Despite its importance, demand is typically incorporated into planning models exogenously using a single scenario of demand change over time. Alternatively, demand is incorporated endogenously in hydro-economic models based on the assumption of rationality. However, actors are constrained by limited information and information processing capabilities, casting doubt on the rationality assumption. Though the risk of water shortage changes incrementally with demand growth and hydrologic change, significant shifts in management are punctuated and often linked to periods of stress. The observation of lasting decreases in per capita demands in a number of cities during periods of water stress prompts an alternate hypothesis: the occurrence of water stress increases the tendency of cities to promote and enforce efficient technologies and behaviors and the tendency of users to adopt them. We show the relevance of this hypothesis by building a model of a hypothetical surface water system to answer the following question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? The model links the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). Under SOP, demand is fulfilled unless available supply drops below demand; under HP, water releases are reduced in anticipation of a deficit to decrease the risk of a large shortfall. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decrease during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies.

  13. Using Satellite Data to Build Climate Resilience: A Novel East Africa Drought Monitor (United States)

    Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.


    East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.

  14. Geomagnetic storm effects on the occurrences of ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region (United States)

    Amaechi, P. O.; Oyeyemi, E. O.; Akala, A. O.


    The study investigated the effects of intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 on the occurrences of large scale ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region. Four major/intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 were analyzed for this study. These storms occurred on 17th March 2015 (-229 nT), 22nd June 2015 (-204 nT), 7th October 2015 (-124 nT), and 20th December 2015 (-170 nT). Total Electron Content (TEC) data obtained from five African Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations, grouped into eastern and western sectors were used to derive the ionospheric irregularities proxy indices, e.g., rate of change of TEC (ROT), ROT index (ROTI) and ROTI daily average (ROTIAVE). These indices were characterized alongside with the disturbance storm time (Dst), the Y component of the Interplanetary Electric Field (IEFy), polar cap (PC) index and the H component of the Earth's magnetic field from ground-based magnetometers. Irregularities manifested in the form of fluctuations in TEC. Prompt penetration of electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) modulated the behaviour of irregularities during the main and recovery phases of the geomagnetic storms. The effect of electric field over both sectors depends on the local time of southward turning of IMF Bz. Consequently, westward electric field inhibited irregularities during the main phase of March and October 2015 geomagnetic storms, while for the June 2015 storm, eastward electric field triggered weak irregularities over the eastern sector. The effect of electric field on irregularities during December 2015 storm was insignificant. During the recovery phase of the storms, westward DDEF suppressed irregularities.

  15. Coherent and intermittent ensemble oscillations emerge from networks of irregular spiking neurons. (United States)

    Hoseini, Mahmood S; Wessel, Ralf


    Local field potential (LFP) recordings from spatially distant cortical circuits reveal episodes of coherent gamma oscillations that are intermittent, and of variable peak frequency and duration. Concurrently, single neuron spiking remains largely irregular and of low rate. The underlying potential mechanisms of this emergent network activity have long been debated. Here we reproduce such intermittent ensemble oscillations in a model network, consisting of excitatory and inhibitory model neurons with the characteristics of regular-spiking (RS) pyramidal neurons, and fast-spiking (FS) and low-threshold spiking (LTS) interneurons. We find that fluctuations in the external inputs trigger reciprocally connected and irregularly spiking RS and FS neurons in episodes of ensemble oscillations, which are terminated by the recruitment of the LTS population with concurrent accumulation of inhibitory conductance in both RS and FS neurons. The model qualitatively reproduces experimentally observed phase drift, oscillation episode duration distributions, variation in the peak frequency, and the concurrent irregular single-neuron spiking at low rate. Furthermore, consistent with previous experimental studies using optogenetic manipulation, periodic activation of FS, but not RS, model neurons causes enhancement of gamma oscillations. In addition, increasing the coupling between two model networks from low to high reveals a transition from independent intermittent oscillations to coherent intermittent oscillations. In conclusion, the model network suggests biologically plausible mechanisms for the generation of episodes of coherent intermittent ensemble oscillations with irregular spiking neurons in cortical circuits. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  16. Star Formation in Irregular Galaxies. (United States)

    Hunter, Deidre; Wolff, Sidney


    Examines mechanisms of how stars are formed in irregular galaxies. Formation in giant irregular galaxies, formation in dwarf irregular galaxies, and comparisons with larger star-forming regions found in spiral galaxies are considered separately. (JN)

  17. Dealing with drought in irrigated agriculture through insurance schemes: an application to an irrigation district in Southern Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz, M.; Bielza, J.; Garrido, A.; Iglesias, A.


    Hydrological drought is expected to have an increasing impact on both crop and fruit yields in arid and semi-arid regions. Some existing crop insurance schemes provide coverage against water deficits in rain-fed agriculture. The Prevented Planting Program in the USA covers against drought for irrigated agriculture. However, drought insurance for irrigated agriculture is still a challenge for companies and institutions because of the complexity of the design and implementation of this type of insurance. Few studies have attempted to evaluate the risk of loss due to irrigation water scarcity using both stand-alone production functions and crop simulation models. This paper’s contributions are that it evaluates the suitability of AquaCrop for calculating drought insurance premiums for irrigated agriculture and that it discusses contract conditions and insurance design for hydrological drought risk coverage as part of a traditional insurance product, with on-field loss assessment in combination with a trigger index. This method was applied to an irrigation district in southern Spain. Our insurance premium calculation showed that it is feasible to apply this method provided that its data requirements are met, such as a large enough set of reliable small-scale yield and irrigation time series data, especially soil data, to calibrate AquaCrop. The choice of a trigger index should not be underestimated because it proved to have a decisive influence on insurance premiums and indemnities. Our discussion of the contract conditions shows that hydrological drought insurance must comply with a series of constraints in order to avoid moral hazard and basis risk. (Author)

  18. Dealing with drought in irrigated agriculture through insurance schemes: an application to an irrigation district in Southern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Ruiz


    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is expected to have an increasing impact on both crop and fruit yields in arid and semi-arid regions. Some existing crop insurance schemes provide coverage against water deficits in rain-fed agriculture. The Prevented Planting Program in the USA covers against drought for irrigated agriculture. However, drought insurance for irrigated agriculture is still a challenge for companies and institutions because of the complexity of the design and implementation of this type of insurance. Few studies have attempted to evaluate the risk of loss due to irrigation water scarcity using both stand-alone production functions and crop simulation models. This paper’s contributions are that it evaluates the suitability of AquaCrop for calculating drought insurance premiums for irrigated agriculture and that it discusses contract conditions and insurance design for hydrological drought risk coverage as part of a traditional insurance product, with on-field loss assessment in combination with a trigger index. This method was applied to an irrigation district in southern Spain. Our insurance premium calculation showed that it is feasible to apply this method provided that its data requirements are met, such as a large enough set of reliable small-scale yield and irrigation time series data, especially soil data, to calibrate AquaCrop. The choice of a trigger index should not be underestimated because it proved to have a decisive influence on insurance premiums and indemnities. Our discussion of the contract conditions shows that hydrological drought insurance must comply with a series of constraints in order to avoid moral hazard and basis risk.

  19. Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant and susceptible cultivars of rice ( Oryza sativa L.) ... and IR-64 (drought sensitive) cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under different level of drought stress. ... from 32 Countries:.

  20. Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bachmair


    Full Text Available Drought management frameworks are dependent on methods for monitoring and prediction, but quantifying the hazard alone is arguably not sufficient; the negative consequences that may arise from a lack of precipitation must also be predicted if droughts are to be better managed. However, the link between drought intensity, expressed by some hydrometeorological indicator, and the occurrence of drought impacts has only recently begun to be addressed. One challenge is the paucity of information on ecological and socioeconomic consequences of drought. This study tests the potential for developing empirical drought impact functions based on drought indicators (Standardized Precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index as predictors and text-based reports on drought impacts as a surrogate variable for drought damage. While there have been studies exploiting textual evidence of drought impacts, a systematic assessment of the effect of impact quantification method and different functional relationships for modeling drought impacts is missing. Using Southeast England as a case study we tested the potential of three different data-driven models for predicting drought impacts quantified from text-based reports: logistic regression, zero-altered negative binomial regression (hurdle model, and an ensemble regression tree approach (random forest. The logistic regression model can only be applied to a binary impact/no impact time series, whereas the other two models can additionally predict the full counts of impact occurrence at each time point. While modeling binary data results in the lowest prediction uncertainty, modeling the full counts has the advantage of also providing a measure of impact severity, and the counts were found to be reasonably predictable. However, there were noticeable differences in skill between modeling methodologies. For binary data the logistic regression and the random forest model performed similarly well based on

  1. Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia (United States)

    Palat Rao, Mukund; Davi, Nicole K.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Skees, Jerry; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Leland, Caroline; Lyon, Bradfield; Wang, Shih-Yu; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa


    Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000-2002, and 2009-2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November-February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July-September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013.

  2. Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California (United States)

    Greene, C.


    Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

  3. Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India (United States)

    Janardhanan, A.


    Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

  4. A Two-Step Approach for Analytical Optimal Hedging with Two Triggers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiesong Hu


    Full Text Available Hedging is widely used to mitigate severe water shortages in the operation of reservoirs during droughts. Rationing is usually instituted with one hedging policy, which is based only on one trigger, i.e., initial storage level or current water availability. It may perform poorly in balancing the benefits of a release during the current period versus those of carryover storage during future droughts. This study proposes a novel hedging rule to improve the efficiency of a reservoir operated to supply water, in which, based on two triggers, hedging is initiated with three different hedging sub-rules through a two-step approach. In the first step, the sub-rule is triggered based on the relationship between the initial reservoir storage level and the level of the target rule curve or the firm rule curve at the end of the current period. This step is mainly concerned with increasing the water level or not in the current period. Hedging is then triggered under the sub-rule based on current water availability in the second step, in which the trigger implicitly considers both initial and ending reservoir storage levels in the current period. Moreover, the amount of hedging is analytically derived based on the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT conditions. In addition, the hedging parameters are optimized using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm coupled with a rule-based simulation. A single water-supply reservoir located in Hubei Province in central China is selected as a case study. The operation results show that the proposed rule is reasonable and significantly improves the reservoir operation performance for both long-term and critical periods relative to other operation policies, such as the standard operating policy (SOP and the most commonly used hedging rules.

  5. Tipping point of a conifer forest ecosystem under severe drought (United States)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Yi, Chuixiang; Wu, Donghai; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Blanford, William J.; Wei, Suhua; Wu, Hao; Ling, Du; Li, Zheng


    Drought-induced tree mortality has recently received considerable attention. Questions have arisen over the necessary intensity and duration thresholds of droughts that are sufficient to trigger rapid forest declines. The values of such tipping points leading to forest declines due to drought are presently unknown. In this study, we have evaluated the potential relationship between the level of tree growth and concurrent drought conditions with data of the tree growth-related ring width index (RWI) of the two dominant conifer species (Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa) in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) and the meteorological drought-related standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this effort, we determined the binned averages of RWI and the 11 month SPEI within the month of July within each bin of 30 of RWI in the range of 0-3000. We found a significant correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI at the regional-scale under dryer conditions. The tipping point of forest declines to drought is predicted by the regression model as SPEItp = -1.64 and RWItp = 0, that is, persistence of the water deficit (11 month) with intensity of -1.64 leading to negligible growth for the conifer species. When climate conditions are wetter, the correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI is weaker which we believe is most likely due to soil water and atmospheric moisture levels no longer being the dominant factor limiting tree growth. We also illustrate a potential application of the derived tipping point (SPEItp = -1.64) through an examination of the 2002 extreme drought event in the SWUS conifer forest regions. Distinguished differences in remote-sensing based NDVI anomalies were found between the two regions partitioned by the derived tipping point.

  6. Tipping point of a conifer forest ecosystem under severe drought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Wu, Hao; Ling, Du; Li, Zheng; Yi, Chuixiang; Blanford, William J; Wei, Suhua; Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang


    Drought-induced tree mortality has recently received considerable attention. Questions have arisen over the necessary intensity and duration thresholds of droughts that are sufficient to trigger rapid forest declines. The values of such tipping points leading to forest declines due to drought are presently unknown. In this study, we have evaluated the potential relationship between the level of tree growth and concurrent drought conditions with data of the tree growth-related ring width index (RWI) of the two dominant conifer species (Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa) in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) and the meteorological drought-related standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this effort, we determined the binned averages of RWI and the 11 month SPEI within the month of July within each bin of 30 of RWI in the range of 0–3000. We found a significant correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI at the regional-scale under dryer conditions. The tipping point of forest declines to drought is predicted by the regression model as SPEI tp  = −1.64 and RWI tp  = 0, that is, persistence of the water deficit (11 month) with intensity of −1.64 leading to negligible growth for the conifer species. When climate conditions are wetter, the correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI is weaker which we believe is most likely due to soil water and atmospheric moisture levels no longer being the dominant factor limiting tree growth. We also illustrate a potential application of the derived tipping point (SPEI tp  = −1.64) through an examination of the 2002 extreme drought event in the SWUS conifer forest regions. Distinguished differences in remote-sensing based NDVI anomalies were found between the two regions partitioned by the derived tipping point. (letter)

  7. Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun


    It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

  8. Proteomic responses of drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive cotton varieties to drought stress. (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyan; Ni, Zhiyong; Chen, Quanjia; Guo, Zhongjun; Gao, Wenwei; Su, Xiujuan; Qu, Yanying


    Drought, one of the most widespread factors reducing agricultural crop productivity, affects biological processes such as development, architecture, flowering and senescence. Although protein analysis techniques and genome sequencing have made facilitated the proteomic study of cotton, information on genetic differences associated with proteomic changes in response to drought between different cotton genotypes is lacking. To determine the effects of drought stress on cotton seedlings, we used two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry to comparatively analyze proteome of drought-responsive proteins during the seedling stage in two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivars, drought-tolerant KK1543 and drought-sensitive Xinluzao26. A total of 110 protein spots were detected on 2-DE maps, of which 56 were identified by MALDI-TOF and MALDI-TOF/TOF mass spectrometry. The identified proteins were mainly associated with metabolism (46.4 %), antioxidants (14.2 %), and transport and cellular structure (23.2 %). Some key proteins had significantly different expression patterns between the two genotypes. In particular, 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine methyltransferase, UDP-D-glucose pyrophosphorylase and ascorbate peroxidase were up-regulated in KK1543 compared with Xinluzao26. Under drought stress conditions, the vacuolar H(+)-ATPase catalytic subunit, a 14-3-3g protein, translation initiation factor 5A and pathogenesis-related protein 10 were up-regulated in KK1543, whereas ribosomal protein S12, actin, cytosolic copper/zinc superoxide dismutase, protein disulfide isomerase, S-adenosylmethionine synthase and cysteine synthase were down-regulated in Xinluzao26. This work represents the first characterization of proteomic changes that occur in response to drought in roots of cotton plants. These differentially expressed proteins may be related to

  9. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang


    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  10. The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub-Saharan Africa (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Haile, M.; Senay, G.; Wardlow, B.D.; Knutson, C.L.


    Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub-Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub-Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub-Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought-related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. ?? 2008 United Nations.

  11. Study on osmoprotectant rhizobacteria to improve mung bean growth under drought stress (United States)

    Maryani, Y.; Sudadi; Dewi, W. S.; Yunus, A.


    Climate change leads to irregular rainwater availability for crops and thus enhances drought stress. Furthermore, nowadays we face climate disadvantages such as long dry season, short rainy season and high air temperature caused by climate change. This research aimed at studying the ability of osmoprotectant rhizobacteria isolates to support mung bean growth under drought stress. The rhizobacteria were isolated from mung bean’s rhizosphere. The results showed that isolates of strain Al24-k and Ver5-k produced glycine betaine 9.6306 mg g‑1 cell, 1.7667 x 107 CFU g‑1 soil and 11.4870 mg g”1 cell, 1.9667 x 107 CFU g‑1 soil. The isolated rhizobacteria from mung bean’s rhizosphere under field capacity of soil moisture produced glycine betaine 6.8000 mg g‑1 cell, 1.2556 x 107 CFU g‑1 soil. Under 75% field capacity of soil moisture, isolates produced glycine betaine of 6.4059 mg g‑1 cell, 1.3111 x 107 CFU g‑1 soil, while under 50% from field capacity, the isolates produced glycine betaine of 7.4108 mg g‑1 cell, 1.6667 x 107 CFU g‑1 soil. The osmoprotectant rhizobacteria improved the resilience of mung bean to drought stress.

  12. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.


    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  13. Drivers of atmospheric evaporative demand during African droughts (United States)

    Blakeley, S. L.; Harrison, L.; Hobbins, M.; Dewes, C.; Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.


    Seeking to advance the practice of famine early warning across sub-Saharan Africa we illuminate past drivers of high-impact droughts to gain a better understanding of the evaporative processes involved in drought dynamics. Atmospheric evaporative demand (ETo) is often used to estimate plant water balance and drought impacts to vegetation, and previously demonstrated linkages between precipitation, temperature, and ETo need to be better understood. This work is timely as new data streams will enable near-real-time monitoring of ETo and incorporation of ETo forecasts into seasonal outlooks for African growing seasons. For historical droughts during major growing seasons in sub-Saharan Africa, we evaluate ETo and identify main drivers for drought cases-identified based on below-normal precipitation during the wettest three months of the growing season-and contrast these with the ETo drivers that dominate in wetter years (we also consider droughts triggered by above normal ETo). Our focus is on regions of Africa where adequate precipitation is important for productive agriculture and pastoral activities and where evaporative demand might exacerbate moisture limitations. It is expected that important ETo drivers are partly connected with precipitation-related processes but that there are variations between regions and events. The goal here is to provide a generalized understanding of what aspects of evaporative demand historically have posed an additional hazard to plant stress and how precipitation outcomes are responsible for the ETo drivers. In addition, we explore whether there have been discernible changes through time in regard to ETo drivers during below-normal precipitation seasons. Upper and lower terciles of CHIRPS precipitation are used to identify anomalous dry and wet cases. The ETo dataset spans the 1980-near present period and is calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by daily temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar

  14. Modelling drought-induced dieback of Aleppo pine at the arid timberline (United States)

    Wingate, Lisa; Preisler, Yakir; Bert, Didier; Rotenberg, Eyal; Yakir, Dan; Maseyk, Kadmiel; Ogee, Jerome


    During the mid 1960's an ambitious afforestation programme was initiated in the Negev desert of Israel. After five decades enduring harsh growing conditions, the Aleppo pine forest of Yatir is now exhibiting signs of 'drought-induced' dieback. Since 2010, 5-10% of the entire Yatir population have died, however the pattern of mortality is extremely patchy with some areas exhibiting >80% mortality whilst others display none. In this presentation, we reflect on historic climatic and edaphic conditions that have triggered this landscape mosaic of survival and mortality and how physiological and hydraulic traits vary within this patchwork. In addition, we explore how these pine trees have responded physiologically over recent years (1996-2010) to a series of severe drought events using a combined approach that brings together micrometeorological, dendro-isotopic and dendro-climatological datasets alongside process-based modelling. In particular the dataset trends were investigated with the isotope-enabled ecosystem model MuSICA to explore the consequences of subsequent droughts and embolism on modelled carbohydrate and water pool dynamics and their impact on carbon allocation and ecosystem function.

  15. Spider foraging strategy affects trophic cascades under natural and drought conditions. (United States)

    Liu, Shengjie; Chen, Jin; Gan, Wenjin; Schaefer, Douglas; Gan, Jianmin; Yang, Xiaodong


    Spiders can cause trophic cascades affecting litter decomposition rates. However, it remains unclear how spiders with different foraging strategies influence faunal communities, or present cascading effects on decomposition. Furthermore, increased dry periods predicted in future climates will likely have important consequences for trophic interactions in detritus-based food webs. We investigated independent and interactive effects of spider predation and drought on litter decomposition in a tropical forest floor. We manipulated densities of dominant spiders with actively hunting or sit-and-wait foraging strategies in microcosms which mimicked the tropical-forest floor. We found a positive trophic cascade on litter decomposition was triggered by actively hunting spiders under ambient rainfall, but sit-and-wait spiders did not cause this. The drought treatment reversed the effect of actively hunting spiders on litter decomposition. Under drought conditions, we observed negative trophic cascade effects on litter decomposition in all three spider treatments. Thus, reduced rainfall can alter predator-induced indirect effects on lower trophic levels and ecosystem processes, and is an example of how such changes may alter trophic cascades in detritus-based webs of tropical forests.

  16. Capture of irregular satellites at Jupiter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nesvorný, David; Vokrouhlický, David; Deienno, Rogerio


    The irregular satellites of outer planets are thought to have been captured from heliocentric orbits. The exact nature of the capture process, however, remains uncertain. We examine the possibility that irregular satellites were captured from the planetesimal disk during the early solar system instability when encounters between the outer planets occurred. Nesvorný et al. already showed that the irregular satellites of Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune were plausibly captured during planetary encounters. Here we find that the current instability models present favorable conditions for capture of irregular satellites at Jupiter as well, mainly because Jupiter undergoes a phase of close encounters with an ice giant. We show that the orbital distribution of bodies captured during planetary encounters provides a good match to the observed distribution of irregular satellites at Jupiter. The capture efficiency for each particle in the original transplanetary disk is found to be (1.3-3.6) × 10 –8 . This is roughly enough to explain the observed population of jovian irregular moons. We also confirm Nesvorný et al.'s results for the irregular satellites of Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune.

  17. Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity (United States)

    Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.


    Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the

  18. Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.


    In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what

  19. Irregular Migrants and the Law


    Kassim, Azizah; Mat Zin, Ragayah Hj.


    This paper examines Malaysia`s policy on irregular migrants and its implementation, and discusses its impact. A survey and interview covering 404 respondents was conducted between July 2010 and June 2011 to ascertain the real situations surrounding irregular migrants in Malaysia, which is one of the major host countries of international migrants from developing nations. The policy on foreign workers was formulated in the mid-1980s to deal with the large number of irregular migrants and their ...

  20. Blended Drought Index: Integrated Drought Hazard Assessment in the Cuvelai-Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Luetkemeier


    Full Text Available Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and adapt a growing population to a changing environment. This paper presents the Blended Drought Index (BDI, an integrated tool for estimating the impact of drought as a climate-induced hazard in the semi-arid Cuvelai-Basin of Angola and Namibia. It incorporates meteorological and agricultural drought characteristics that impair the population’s ability to ensure food and water security. The BDI uses a copula function to combine common standardized drought indicators that describe precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Satellite remote sensing products were processed to analyze drought frequency, severity and duration. As the primary result, an integrated drought hazard map was built to spatially depict drought hot-spots. Temporally, the BDI correlates well with millet/sorghum yield (r = 0.51 and local water consumption (r = −0.45 and outperforms conventional indicators. In the light of a drought’s multifaceted impact on society, the BDI is a simple and transferable tool to identify areas highly threatened by drought in an integrated manner.

  1. The effect of severe drought and management after drought on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The False Thornveld of the Eastern Cape experienced a particularly intense drought during the 1982/1983 growing season. Extensive grass mortality took place during the drought. After the drought, recovery was particularly sensitive to the post-drought management treatment applied. Veld that was grazed immediately ...

  2. Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress. (United States)

    Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko


    Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

  3. Experimental drought and heat can delay phenological development and reduce foliar and shoot growth in semiarid trees. (United States)

    Adams, Henry D; Collins, Adam D; Briggs, Samuel P; Vennetier, Michel; Dickman, L Turin; Sevanto, Sanna A; Garcia-Forner, Núria; Powers, Heath H; McDowell, Nate G


    Higher temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to trigger an earlier start to the growing season, which could increase the terrestrial C sink strength. Greater variability in the amount and timing of precipitation is also expected with higher temperatures, bringing increased drought stress to many ecosystems. We experimentally assessed the effects of higher temperature and drought on the foliar phenology and shoot growth of mature trees of two semiarid conifer species. We exposed field-grown trees to a ~45% reduction in precipitation with a rain-out structure ('drought'), a ~4.8 °C temperature increase with open-top chambers ('heat'), and a combination of both simultaneously ('drought + heat'). Over the 2013 growing season, drought, heat, and drought + heat treatments reduced shoot and needle growth in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) by ≥39%, while juniper (Juniperus monosperma) had low growth and little response to these treatments. Needle emergence on primary axis branches of piñon pine was delayed in heat, drought, and drought + heat treatments by 19-57 days, while secondary axis branches were less likely to produce needles in the heat treatment, and produced no needles at all in the drought + heat treatment. Growth of shoots and needles, and the timing of needle emergence correlated inversely with xylem water tension and positively with nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations. Our findings demonstrate the potential for delayed phenological development and reduced growth with higher temperatures and drought in tree species that are vulnerable to drought and reveal potential mechanistic links to physiological stress responses. Climate change projections of an earlier and longer growing season with higher temperatures, and consequent increases in terrestrial C sink strength, may be incorrect for regions where plants will face increased drought stress with climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Impact of drought on wildfires in Iberia (United States)

    Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia M.; DaCamara, Carlos; Sousa, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo M.


    Southern European countries, and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in particular, have been vastly affected by summer wildfires (Trigo et al., 2013). This condition is hampered by the frequent warm and dry meteorological conditions found in summer which play a significant role in the triggering and spreading of wildfires. These meteorological conditions are also particularly important for the onset and end of drought periods, a phenomenon that has recurrently affected the IP (Gouveia et al., 2012). Moreover, the IP corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change, and recent and future trends towards a dryer and warmer Mediterranean climate (Sousa et al., 2014) will tend to exacerbate these problems. The main scope of this study was to investigate the impact of drought on wildfires' burned areas in the IP. The objective was to examine the correlation between drought, as expressed by both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and wildfire burned areas. The SPI and SPEI were both calculated for 4 large regions (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes were shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions (Trigo et al., 2013). In this study, the drought indices were determined for the time scales of 3 and 6 months for August and for 12 months in September, thus representing the summer and annual drought. The correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the 3 months SPEI and SPI relatively to the 6 and 12 time scales, which indicates that drought and fires relation is a small-size scale process. Moreover, the correlation between drought and burned areas during July and August was particularly significant for the Northern and Southwestern regions both for SPEI for 3 and 6

  5. Drought assessment for cropland of Central America using course-resolution remote sensing data (United States)

    Chen, C. F.; Nguyen, S. T.; Chen, C. R.; Chiang, S. H.; Chang, L. Y.; Khin, L. V.


    Drought is one of the most frequent and costliest natural disasters, which imposes enormous effects to human societies and ecosystems. Agricultural drought is referred to an interval of time, such as weeks or months, when the soil moisture supply of a region consistently falls below the appropriate moisture supply leading to negative impacts on agricultural production. Millions of households in Central America were dependent upon major food crops, including maize, beans, and sorghum, for their daily subsistence. In recent years, impacts of climate change through global warming in forms of higher temperature and widespread rainfall deficits have however triggered severe drought during the primera cropping season (April-August) in the study region, causing profound impacts on agriculture, crop production losses, increased market food prices, as well as food security issues. This study focuses on investigating agricultural droughts for cropland of Central America using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. We processed the data for a normal year 2013 and an abnormal year 2014 using a simple vegetation health index (VHI) that is developed based on the temperature condition index (TCI) and vegetation condition index (VCI). The VHI results were validated using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) precipitation data and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) that is developed based on the empirical analysis of TCI and VCI data. The correlation coefficients (r) obtained by comparisons between the VHI data and the AMSR2 precipitation and TVDI data were higher than 0.62 and -0.61, respectively. The severe drought was intensive during the dry season (January-April) and likely backed to normal conditions in May with the onset of rainy season. The larger area of serve drought was observed for the 2014 primera season, especially during April-July. When investigating the cultivated areas affected by severe drought in the primera

  6. Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China (United States)

    Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.


    As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

  7. GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor (United States)

    Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt


    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

  8. CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought (United States)

    Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine


    Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa

  9. Drought Dynamics and Vegetation Productivity in Different Land Management Systems of Eastern Cape, South Africa—A Remote Sensing Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Graw


    Full Text Available Eastern Cape Province in South Africa has experienced extreme drought events during the last decade. In South Africa, different land management systems exist belonging to two different land tenure classes: commercial large scale farming and communal small-scale subsistence farming. Communal lands are often reported to be affected by land degradation and drought events among others considered as trigger for this process. Against this background, we analyzed vegetation response to drought in different land management and land tenure systems through assessing vegetation productivity trends and monitoring the intensity, frequency and distribution of the drought hazard in grasslands and communal and commercial croplands during drought and non-drought conditions. For the observation period 2000–2016, we used time series of 250 m Vegetation Condition Index (VCI based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS precipitation data with 5 km resolution. For the assessment of vegetation dynamics, we: (1 analyzed vegetation productivity in Eastern Cape over the last 16 years with EVI; (2 analyzed the impact of drought events on vegetation productivity in grasslands as well as commercial and communal croplands; and (3 compared precipitation-vegetation dynamics between the drought season 2015/2016 and the non-drought season 2011/2012. Change in total annual vegetation productivity could detect drought years while drought dynamics during the season could be rather monitored by the VCI. Correlation of vegetation condition and precipitation indicated areas experiencing significant vegetation productivity trends showing low and even negative correlation coefficients indicating other drivers for productivity change and drought impact besides rainfall.

  10. Strategic Analysis of Irregular Warfare (United States)


    the same mathematical equations used by Lanchester .10 Irregular Warfare Theory and Doctrine It is time to develop new analytical methods and models...basis on which to build, similar to what Lanchester provided almost 100 years ago. Figure 9 portrays both Lanchester’s approach and an irregular 17

  11. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought (United States)

    Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.


    Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

  12. Irregular Migration in Jordan, 1995-2007


    AROURI, Fathi A.


    Euro-Mediterranean Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM) This paper tackles the question of irregular migration in Jordan through its four main aspects. The first concerns irregular labour migrants and has been approached by using figures showing the socio-economic profile of non Jordanians working in Jordan and, additionally, unemployment in Jordan. This is done by assuming close similarities between legal and irregular labour migrants. The second is an attemp...

  13. Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems (United States)

    Zaniolo, Marta; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea Francesco; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel


    for triggering drought management measures. The state index was constructed empirically with a trial-and-error process begun in the 1980s and finalized in 2007, guided by the experts from the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ). Our results show that the automated variable selection outcomes align with CHJ's 25-year-long empirical refinement. In addition, the resultant FRIDA index outperforms the official State Index in terms of accuracy in reproducing the target variable and cardinality of the selected inputs set.

  14. The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index. (United States)

    Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.


    We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

  15. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin


    The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information ( The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

  16. Fitting Irregular Shape Figures into Irregular Shape Areas for the Nesting Problem in the Leather Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guevara-Palma Luis


    Full Text Available The nesting problem of irregular shapes within irregular areas has been studied from several approaches due to their application in different industries. The particular case of cutting leather involves several restrictions that add complexity to this problem, it is necessary to generate products that comply with the quality required by customers This paper presents a methodology for the accommodation of irregular shapes in an irregular area (leather considering the constraints set by the footwear industry, and the results of this methodology when applied by a computer system. The scope of the system is to develop a working prototype that operates under the guidelines of a commercial production line of a sponsor company. Preliminary results got a reduction of 70% of processing time and improvement of 5% to 7% of the area usage when compared with manual accommodation.

  17. Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.


    Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation

  18. Global patterns of drought recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin


    Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

  19. Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices for Drought Zone Scheme of Northern Khorasan Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005 that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI, Decades Index (DI and Percent of Normal (PNI calculated and compared to determine drought severity, duration and drought occurrence for all stations. In addition, drought maps were prepared by Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method, for each study zone. Based on these indices, the most extensive drought occurred in 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, and 2001 years. The longest duration of drought based on SPI happened in 1994 and 1997 years. Furthermore, the extreme drought occurred in 1990 and 2001 in all stations. In conclusion, Central part of this province was more exposed to extreme drought during study period than other parts of this region.

  20. High resolution multi-scalar drought indices for Iberia (United States)

    Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia


    The Iberian Peninsula has been recurrently affected by drought episodes and by adverse associated effects (Gouveia et al., 2009), ranging from severe water shortages to losses of hydroelectricity production, increasing risk of forest fires, forest decline and triggering processes of land degradation and desertification. Moreover, Iberia corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change and is nowadays considered a hot spot of climate change with high probability for the increase of extreme events (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008). The spatial and temporal behavior of climatic droughts at different time scales was analyzed using spatially distributed time series of multi-scalar drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This new climatic drought index is based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature fields with the advantage of combining a multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. Moreover, reanalysis data and the higher resolution hindcasted databases obtained from them are valuable surrogates of the sparse observations and widely used for in-depth characterizations of the present-day climate. Accordingly, this work aims to enhance the knowledge on high resolution drought patterns in Iberian Peninsula, taking advantage of high-resolution (10km) regional MM5 simulations of the recent past (1959-2007) over Iberia. It should be stressed that these high resolution meteorological fields (e.g. temperature, precipitation) have been validated for various purposes (Jerez et al., 2013). A detailed characterization of droughts since the 1960s using the 10 km resolution hidncasted simulation was performed with the aim to explore the conditions favoring drought onset, duration and ending, as well as the subsequent short, medium and long-term impacts affecting the environment and the

  1. Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices (United States)

    Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.


    Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

  2. The U.S./Canadian GEO Bilateral Drought Indices and Definitions Study: Implications for the Canadian Drought Monitor and a Global Drought Early Warning System (United States)

    Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.


    Drought is a difficult phenomenon to define; the way in which it is monitored, measured, assessed and even the very definition of drought vary from location to location based on the regional climate and the potential impacts. Drought is not an absolute condition but an evolving state brought on by relatively dry weather, growing more severe over time. There are many factors that define a drought and many more that define its impacts. Many definitions and indices are based solely on meteorological characteristics. Although this approach has merit, it is often necessary to go further to define those meteorological conditions in a way that is relevant to the land and water use in a region. A Drought Indices and Definitions Study was initiated in 2010 as part of a GEO Bilateral effort to examine drought across the U.S. and Canada. The Study's deliverables will include a survey of the drought indices used to monitor drought, and a bibliography of research addressing the nature of drought, across the diverse climates of the continent. With an increasing pressure to utilize drought monitoring as a primary indicator of need for disaster assistance, the reliability of drought indices must be validated and utilized in appropriate in various regions. In 2009, following over five years of participation in the North American Drought Monitor (NA-DM), the National Agroclimate Information Service of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada initiated a project to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor (Can-DM), based on primary principles used in the NA-DM and the US Drought Monitor (US-DM). The process of developing an operational monitoring tool and using drought indices in a vast and environmentally diverse country has been challenging. in Canada, many of the commonly used indices are not appropriate in certain regions or data densities do not allow for proper use. This paper will discuss the experiences that the Can-DM team has had dealing with these challenges, how these experiences

  3. Characteristics and drivers of drought in Europe-a summary of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stagge, James H.; Stahl, Kerstin; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Loon, van Anne F.; Lanen, van Henny A.J.


    A prerequisite to mitigate the wide range of drought impacts is to establish a good understanding of the drought generating mechanisms from their initiation as a meteorological drought through to their development as soil moisture and hydrological drought. The DROUGHT-R&SPI project has

  4. Legal aspects of the EU policy on irregular immigration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voinikov Vadim


    Full Text Available This article addresses the issues pertaining to the adoption and development of legislation on irregular migration in the context of uncontrolled growth in the number of immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East to the EU. The article attempts at studying the EU legislation on irregular migration, classifying it, and analysing the prospects of EU migration legislation in the light of an increase in irregular immigration into the EU. The author systematises, classifies the current EU legislation on irregular immigration, and analyses the conditions, in which this legislation was developed. Using the legislation analysis method, the author proposes the following system of EU legislation on irregular immigration: rules preventing assistance to irregular immigration, rules preventing employment of irregular immigrants, rules on the return of irregular migrants and readmission, rules on border control, and rules on collaboration with third countries. The author pays special attention to analysing the current state of irregular immigration to the EU, which was dubbed the ‘greatest migration crisis in Europe’. The conclusion is that the European Union succeeded in the development of pioneering legislation on irregular immigration, which can serve as the basis for reception by other states. However, changes in the political and economic situation in the EU’s southern borderlands made the current legal mechanisms incapable of withstanding new threats. It necessitates a radical reform of the legislation on irregular immigration.

  5. Irregular menstruation according to occupational status. (United States)

    Kwak, Yeunhee; Kim, Yoonjung


    This cross-sectional study explored associations of irregular menstruation with occupational characteristics, using secondary analyses of data from 4,731 women aged 19-54 years, collected from a nationally representative sample, the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey-V during 2010-2012. The associations between irregular menstruation and occupation were explored using multiple logistic regression. Compared to non-manual workers, service/sales workers had a greater odds of irregular menstruation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.44; 95percent confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.99) as did manual workers and unemployed women (aOR: 1.56; 95percent CI: 1.10-2.22, aOR: 1.46; 95percent CI: 1.14-1.89, respectively). Compared to regular workers, temporary workers and unemployed women had aORs of 1.52 (95percent CI: 1.08-2.13) and 1.33 (95percent CI: 1.05-1.69), respectively. Also, when compared to full-time workers, part-time workers and unemployed women had greater odds of irregular menstruation (aOR: 1.41; 95percent CI: 1.00-2.00 and aOR: 1.29; 95percent CI: 1.03-1.63, respectively). Furthermore, compared to daytime workers, shift workers and unemployed women had greater odds irregular menstruation (aOR: 1.39; 95percent CI: 1.03-1.88 and aOR: 1.28; 95percent CI: 1.04-1.59, respectively). Women with these occupational characteristics should be screened for early diagnosis and intervention for irregular menstruation.

  6. Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia. (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel; Fernandes, Katia; Ceccato, Pietro; Baethgen, Walter; Padoch, Christine

    Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post-deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry-season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232-m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry-season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover

  7. Vegetation index anomaly response to varying lengths of drought across vegetation and climatic gradients in Hawaii (United States)

    Lucas, M.; Miura, T.; Trauernicht, C.; Frazier, A. G.


    A drought which results in prolonged and extended deficit in naturally available water supply and creates multiple stresses across ecosystems is classified as an ecological drought. Detecting and understanding the dynamics and response of such droughts in tropical systems, specifically across various vegetation and climatic gradients is fairly undetermined, yet increasingly important for better understandings of the ecological effects of drought. To understanding the link between what lengths and intensities of known meteorological drought triggers detectable ecological vegetation responses, a landscape scale regression analysis evaluating the response (slope) and relationship strength (R-squared) of several cumulative SPI (standard precipitation index) lengths(1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 month), to various satellite derived monthly vegetation indices anomalies (NDVI, EVI, EVI2, and LSWI) was performed across a matrix of dominant vegetation covers (grassland, shrubland, and forest) and climatic moisture zones (arid, dry, mesic, and wet). The nine different SPI lags across these climactic and vegetation gradients was suggest that stronger relationships and steeper slopes were found in dryer climates (across all vegetation covers) and finer vegetation types (across all moisture zones). Overall NDVI, EVI and EVI2 showed the best utility in these dryer climatic zones across all vegetation types. Within arid and dry areas "best" fits showed increasing lengths of cumulative SPI were with increasing vegetation coarseness respectively. Overall these findings suggest that rainfall driven drought may have a stronger impact on the ecological condition of vegetation in water limited systems with finer vegetation types ecologically responding more rapidly to meteorological drought events than coarser woody vegetation systems. These results suggest that previously and newly documented trends of decreasing rainfall and increasing drought in Hawaiian drylands may have

  8. Drought in the Emerald City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babcock, S.D.


    This paper discusses a drought preparedness study being conducted for the Cedar River and Green River basins in western Washington state. The study is one of four regional case studies being managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as part of the National Study of Water Management During Drought. The overriding objective of the drought preparedness study is to leave the region better prepared for drought, through demonstration and test of drought preparedness tools and strategies. The study has served as a vehicle to promote a greater regional focus on drought related water supply problem solving. The 1992 drought in the Seattle/Tacoma metropolitan area provided a unique opportunity for the study team to demonstrate approaches to drought management being researched and tested as part of the study

  9. Irregular conformal block, spectral curve and flow equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sang Kwan; Rim, Chaiho; Zhang, Hong


    Irregular conformal block is motivated by the Argyres-Douglas type of N=2 super conformal gauge theory. We investigate the classical/NS limit of irregular conformal block using the spectral curve on a Riemann surface with irregular punctures, which is equivalent to the loop equation of irregular matrix model. The spectral curve is reduced to the second order (Virasoro symmetry, SU(2) for the gauge theory) and third order (W_3 symmetry, SU(3)) differential equations of a polynomial with finite degree. The conformal and W symmetry generate the flow equations in the spectral curve and determine the irregular conformal block, hence the partition function of the Argyres-Douglas theory ala AGT conjecture.

  10. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.


    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  11. Elevated [CO2] does not ameliorate the negative effects of elevated temperature on drought-induced mortality in Eucalyptus radiata seedlings. (United States)

    Duan, Honglang; Duursma, Remko A; Huang, Guomin; Smith, Renee A; Choat, Brendan; O'Grady, Anthony P; Tissue, David T


    It has been reported that elevated temperature accelerates the time-to-mortality in plants exposed to prolonged drought, while elevated [CO(2)] acts as a mitigating factor because it can reduce stomatal conductance and thereby reduce water loss. We examined the interactive effects of elevated [CO(2)] and temperature on the inter-dependent carbon and hydraulic characteristics associated with drought-induced mortality in Eucalyptus radiata seedlings grown in two [CO(2)] (400 and 640 μL L(-1)) and two temperature (ambient and ambient +4 °C) treatments. Seedlings were exposed to two controlled drying and rewatering cycles, and then water was withheld until plants died. The extent of xylem cavitation was assessed as loss of stem hydraulic conductivity. Elevated temperature triggered more rapid mortality than ambient temperature through hydraulic failure, and was associated with larger water use, increased drought sensitivities of gas exchange traits and earlier occurrence of xylem cavitation. Elevated [CO(2)] had a negligible effect on seedling response to drought, and did not ameliorate the negative effects of elevated temperature on drought. Our findings suggest that elevated temperature and consequent higher vapour pressure deficit, but not elevated [CO(2)], may be the primary contributors to drought-induced seedling mortality under future climates. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Overexpression of Pyrabactin Resistance-Like Abscisic Acid Receptors Enhances Drought, Osmotic, and Cold Tolerance in Transgenic Poplars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingling Yu


    Full Text Available Abscisic acid (ABA has been known participate in a wider range of adaptive responses to diverse environmental abiotic stresses such as drought, osmosis, and low temperatures. ABA signaling is initiated by its receptors PYR/PYL/RCARs, a type of soluble proteins with a conserved START domain which can bind ABA and trigger the downstream pathway. Previously, we discovered that poplar (Populus trichocarpa genome encodes 14 PYR/PYL/RCAR orthologs (PtPYRLs, and two of them, PtPYRL1 and PtPYRL5 have been functionally characterized to positively regulate drought tolerance. However, the physiological function of these ABA receptors in poplar remains uncharacterized. Here, we generated transgenic poplar plants overexpressing PtPYRL1 and PtPYRL5 and found that they exhibited more vigorous growth and produced greater biomass when exposed to drought stress. The improved drought tolerance was positively correlated with the key physiological responses dictated by the ABA signaling pathway, including increase in stomatal closure and decrease in leaf water loss. Further analyses revealed that overexpression lines showed improved capacity in scavenging reactive oxygen species and enhanced the activation of antioxidant enzymes under drought stress. Moreover, overexpression of PtPYRL1 or PtPYRL5 significantly increased the poplar resistance to osmotic and cold stresses. In summary, our results suggest that constitutive expression of PtPYRL1 and PtPYRL5 significantly enhances the resistance to drought, osmotic and cold stresses by positively regulating ABA signaling in poplar.

  13. Assessing Agricultural Drought in the Anthropocene: A Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingzhi Yang


    Full Text Available In the current human-influenced era, drought is initiated by natural and human drivers, and human activities are as integral to drought as meteorological factors. In large irrigated agricultural regions with high levels of human intervention, where the natural farmland soil moisture has usually been changed significantly by high-frequency irrigation, the actual severity of agricultural drought is distorted in traditional drought indices. In this work, an agricultural drought index that considering irrigation processes based on the Palmer drought severity index (IrrPDSI was developed to interpret the real agricultural drought conditions in irrigated regions, with a case study in the Haihe River Basin in northeast China. The water balance model in the original PDSI was revised by an auto-irrigation threshold method combined with a local irrigation schedule. The auto-irrigation setting of the index was used by taking irrigation quotas during specific growth stages of specific crops (wheat–corn into consideration. A series of weekly comparative analyses are as follows: (1 The soil moisture analyses showed that soil moisture values calculated by the modified water balance model were close to the real values; (2 The statistical analyses indicated that most of the stations in the study area based on IrrPDSI had nearly normal distributed values; (3 The time series and spatial analyses showed that the results of the IrrPDSI-reported dry-wet evaluation were more consistent with documented real conditions. All the results revealed that IrrPDSI performed well when used to assess agricultural drought. This work has direct significance for agricultural drought management in large irrigated areas heavily disturbed by human activity.

  14. Analysis of Droughts of Northwest of Iran Using the Reconnaissance Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    behrouz hosseini


    Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a creeping natural phenomenon, which can occur in any region. Such phenomenon not only affects the region subjected to drought, but its adverse effects can also be extended to other adjacent regions. This phenomenon mainly starts with water deficiency (say less than long- term mean of variable under study such as rainfall, streamflow, groundwater level or soil moisture and progress in time. This period can be ended by increasing the rainfall and reaching the mean level. Even after the ending of a drought period, its adverse effects can be continued for several months. Although, it is not possible (at least at this time to prevent the occurrence of drought in a given region, it is not impossible to alleviate the drought consequences by scientific water management. Such a management should be employed before drought initiation as well as during it and continue on even after the end of the drought period. The frequency of the main drought characteristics is a major concern of this study. The Northwest of Iran recently encountered severe and prolonged droughts, such that a major portion of the Urmia Lake surface disappeared during the last drought in recent years. In order to study drought characteristics, we used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI. This index is based on annual rainfall and potential reference crop evapotranspiration (abbreviated by PET here. This study employed the Monte Carlo simulation technique for synthetic data generation for analysis. Materials and Methods: The information from the 17 synoptic weather stations located in the North-west of Iran was used for drought analysis. Data was gathered from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Meteorological Organization (IRIMO. In the first stage of research, the ratio of long term mean annual precipitation to evapotranspiration was calculated for each of the stations. For this purpose, the Penman-Montheis (FAO 56 method was selected for PET estimation. In the

  15. 16 CFR 501.6 - Cellulose sponges, irregular dimensions. (United States)


    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cellulose sponges, irregular dimensions. 501... REQUIREMENTS AND PROHIBITIONS UNDER PART 500 § 501.6 Cellulose sponges, irregular dimensions. Variety packages of cellulose sponges of irregular dimensions, are exempted from the requirements of § 500.25 of this...

  16. Exogenous Hydrogen Peroxide Contributes to Heme Oxygenase-1 Delaying Programmed Cell Death in Isolated Aleurone Layers of Rice Subjected to Drought Stress in a cGMP-Dependent Manner. (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Xiao, Yu; Deng, Xiaojiang; Zhang, Heting; Li, Tingge; Chen, Huiping


    Hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) is a reactive oxygen species (ROS) that plays a dual role in plant cells. Here, we discovered that drought (20% polyethylene glycol-6000, PEG)-triggered decreases of HO-1 transcript expression and HO activity. However, exogenous H 2 O 2 contributed toward the increase in HO-1 gene expression and activity of the enzyme under drought stress. Meanwhile, the HO-1 inducer hematin could mimic the effects of the H 2 O 2 scavengers ascorbic acid (AsA) and dimethylthiourea (DMTU) and the H 2 O 2 synthesis inhibitor diphenyleneiodonium (DPI) for scavenging or diminishing drought-induced endogenous H 2 O 2 . Conversely, the zinc protoporphyrin IX (ZnPPIX), an HO-1-specific inhibitor, reversed the effects of hematin. We further analyzed the endogenous H 2 O 2 levels and HO-1 transcript expression levels of aleurone layers treated with AsA, DMTU, and DPI in the presence of exogenous H 2 O 2 under drought stress, respectively. The results showed that in aleurone layers subjected to drought stress, when the endogenous H 2 O 2 level was inhibited, the effect of exogenous H 2 O 2 on the induction of HO-1 was enhanced. Furthermore, exogenous H 2 O 2 -activated HO-1 effectively enhanced amylase activity. Application of 8-bromoguanosine 3',5'-cyclic guanosine monophosphate (8-Br-cGMP) (the membrane permeable cGMP analog) promoted the effect of exogenous H 2 O 2 -delayed PCD of aleurone layers in response to drought stress. More importantly, HO-1 delayed the programmed cell death (PCD) of aleurone layers by cooperating with nitric oxide (NO), and the delayed effect of NO on PCD was achieved via mediation by cGMP under drought stress. In short, in rice aleurone layers, exogenous H 2 O 2 (as a signaling molecule) triggered HO-1 and delayed PCD via cGMP which possibly induced amylase activity under drought stress. In contrast, as a toxic by-product of cellular metabolism, the drought-generated H 2 O 2 promoted cell death.

  17. Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia (United States)

    Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.


    With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

  18. Ethical issues in irregular migration research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duvell, F.; Triandafyllidou, A.; Vollmer, B.


    This paper is concerned with the ethical issues arising for researchers engaged in the study of irregular migration. Irregular migration is by definition an elusive phenomenon as it takes place in violation of the law and at the margins of society. This very nature of the phenomenon raises important

  19. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul


    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  20. Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought? (United States)

    Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.


    Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key

  1. Forest Growth Responses to Drought at Short- and Long-Term Scales in Spain: Squeezing the Stress Memory from Tree Rings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Julio Camarero


    Full Text Available Drought-triggered declines in forest productivity and associated die-off events have increased considerably due to climate warming in the last decades. There is an increasing interest in quantifying the resilience capacity of forests against climate warming and drought to uncover how different stands and tree species will resist and recover after more frequent and intense droughts. Trees form annual growth rings that represent an accurate record of how forest growth responded to past droughts. Here we use dendrochronology to quantify the radial growth of different forests subjected to contrasting climatic conditions in Spain during the last half century. Particularly, we considered four climatically contrasting areas where dominant forests showed clear signs of drought-induced dieback. Studied forests included wet sites dominated by silver fir (Abies alba in the Pyrenees and beech (Fagus sylvatica stands in northern Spain, and drought-prone sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris in eastern Spain and black pine (Pinus nigra in the semi-arid south-eastern Spain. We quantified the growth reduction caused by different droughts and assessed the short-and long-term resilience capacity of declining vs. non-declining trees in each forest. In all cases, drought induced a marked growth reduction regardless tree vigor. However, the capacity to recover after drought (resilience at short- and long-term scales varied greatly between declining and non-declining individuals. In the case of beech and silver fir, non-declining individuals presented greater growth rates and capacity to recover after drought than declining individuals. For Scots pine, the resilience to drought was found to be lower in recent years regardless the tree vigor, but the growth reduction caused by successive droughts was more pronounced in declining than in non-declining individuals. In the black pine forest an extreme drought induced a marked growth reduction in declining

  2. Effects of climate change on water abstraction restrictions for irrigation during droughts - The UK case (United States)

    Rey Vicario, D.; Holman, I.


    The use of water for irrigation and on-farm reservoir filling is globally important for agricultural production. In humid climates, like the UK, supplemental irrigation can be critical to buffer the effects of rainfall variability and to achieve high quality crops. Given regulatory efforts to secure sufficient environmental river flows and meet rising water demands due to population growth and climate change, increasing water scarcity is likely to compound the drought challenges faced by irrigated agriculture in this region. Currently, water abstraction from surface waters for agricultural irrigation can be restricted by the Environment Agency during droughts under Section 57 of the Water Resources Act (1991), based on abnormally low river flow levels and rainfall forecast, causing significant economic impacts on irrigated agricultural production. The aim of this study is to assess the impact that climate change may have on agricultural abstraction in the UK within the context of the abstraction restriction triggers currently in place. These triggers have been applied to the `Future Flows hydrology' database to assess the likelihood of increasing restrictions on agricultural abstraction in the future by comparing the probability of voluntary and compulsory restrictions in the baseline (1961-1990) and future period (2071-2098) for 282 catchments throughout the whole of the UK. The results of this study show a general increase in the probability of future agricultural irrigation abstraction restrictions in the UK in the summer, particularly in the South West, although there is significant variability between the 11 ensemble members. The results also indicate that UK winters are likely to become wetter in the future, although in some catchments the probability of abstraction restriction in the reservoir refilling winter months (November-February) could increase slightly. An increasing frequency of drought events due to climate change is therefore likely to lead to

  3. USGS integrated drought science (United States)

    Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.


    Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

  4. Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought. (United States)

    D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P


    Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Towards Improved Understanding of Drought and Drought Impacts from Long Term Earth Observation Records (United States)

    Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.


    Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.

  6. Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains? (United States)

    Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.


    Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

  7. Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices for Drought Zone Scheme of Northern Khorasan Province of Iran




    Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005) that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI), Decades Index (DI) and Percent of Normal (PNI) calculated and compa...

  8. Drought in Africa 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalby, D; Harrison-Church, R J; Berzaz, F [eds.


    The second edition of Drought in Africa is reviewed. The book, which has been greatly expanded, looks at the Sahelian and Ethiopian droughts from a long-term perspective. Among the subjects included are: a description of the meteorological aspects of the drought; changes in animal and human populations; overpopulation of areas of nomadic pastoralism and of crop-producing areas; and mechanisms by which people survived. Cash crops, taxes, the market economy and over-centralized planning receive much of the blame for the effects of the drought.

  9. [Physiological responses of mycorrhizal Pinus massoniana seedlings to drought stress and drought resistance evaluation]. (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Ding, Gui-jie


    A greenhouse pot experiment was conducted to study the effects of inoculating Pisolithus tinctorius, Cenococcum geophilum, Cantharellus cibarius, and Suillus luteus on the physiological characteristics of Pinus massoniana seedlings under the conditions of drought stress and re-watering, with the drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings evaluated. Under drought stress, the MDA content and membrane' s relative permeability of P. massoniana seedlings increased, but these two indices in the inoculated (mycorrhizal) seedlings were significantly lower than these in the un-inoculated (control) seedlings. After re-watering, the MDA content and membrane's relative permeability of mycorrhizal seedlings had a rapid decrease, as compared with the control. In the first 21 days of drought stress, the production rate of superoxide radical of the seedlings increased, and the SOD, POD and NR activities of mycorrhizal seedlings increased significantly. With the extending of drought stress, the seedlings after re-watering had different recovery ability. Under the re-watering after 14 days drought stress, the SOD, POD and NR activities recovered. The drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings was in the order of Suillus luteus 1 > Suillus luteus 7 > Cantharellus cibarius > Cenococcum geophilum > Pisolithus tinctorius. The SOD and MDA activities had a greater correlation with the mycorrhizal seedlings drought resistance, being able to be used as the indicators to evaluate the drought resistance of mycorrhizal seedlings.

  10. Performing drought indices to identify the relationship between agricultural losses and drought events in Spain. (United States)

    Peña Gallardo, Marina; Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente; Portugués Santiago, Beguería; Burguera Miquel, Tomás


    Drought leads to crop failures reducing the productivity. For this reason, the need of appropriate tool for recognize dry periods and evaluate the impact of drought on crop production is important. In this study, we provide an assessment of the relationship between drought episodes and crop failures in Spain as one of the direct consequences of drought is the diminishing of crop yields. First, different drought indices [the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); the self-calibrated Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index (Z-Index), the self-calibrated Crop Moisture Index (CMI) and the Standardized Palmer Drought Index (SPDI)] have been calculated at different time scales in order to identify the dry events occurred in Spain and determine the duration and intensity of each event. Second, the drought episodes have been correlated with crop production estimated and final crop production data provided by the Spanish Crop Insurance System for the available period from 1995 to 2014 at the municipal spatial scale, with the purpose of knowing if the characteristics of the drought episodes are reflected on the agricultural losses. The analysis has been carried out in particular for two types of crop, wheat and barley. The results indicate the existence of an agreement between the most important drought events in Spain and the response of the crop productions and the proportion of hectare insurance. Nevertheless, this agreement vary depending on the drought index applied. Authors found a higher competence of the drought indices calculated at different time scales (SPEI, SPI and SPDI) identifying the begging and end of the drought events and the correspondence with the crop failures.

  11. The Drought Monitor. (United States)

    Svoboda, Mark; Lecomte, Doug; Hayes, Mike; Heim, Richard; Gleason, Karin; Angel, Jim; Rippey, Brad; Tinker, Rich; Palecki, Mike; Stooksbury, David; Miskus, David; Stephens, Scott


    information about drought and to receive regional and local input that is in turn incorporated into the product. This paper describes the Drought Monitor and the interactive process through which it is created.

  12. Locating irregularly shaped clusters of infection intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niko Yiannakoulias


    Full Text Available Patterns of disease may take on irregular geographic shapes, especially when features of the physical environment influence risk. Identifying these patterns can be important for planning, and also identifying new environmental or social factors associated with high or low risk of illness. Until recently, cluster detection methods were limited in their ability to detect irregular spatial patterns, and limited to finding clusters that were roughly circular in shape. This approach has less power to detect irregularly-shaped, yet important spatial anomalies, particularly at high spatial resolutions. We employ a new method of finding irregularly-shaped spatial clusters at micro-geographical scales using both simulated and real data on Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm infection intensities. This method, which we refer to as the “greedy growth scan”, is a modification of the spatial scan method for cluster detection. Real data are based on samples of hookworm and S. mansoni from Kitengei, Makueni district, Kenya. Our analysis of simulated data shows how methods able to find irregular shapes are more likely to identify clusters along rivers than methods constrained to fixed geometries. Our analysis of infection intensity identifies two small areas within the study region in which infection intensity is elevated, possibly due to local features of the physical or social environment. Collectively, our results show that the “greedy growth scan” is a suitable method for exploratory geographical analysis of infection intensity data when irregular shapes are suspected, especially at micro-geographical scales.

  13. Detecting chaos in irregularly sampled time series. (United States)

    Kulp, C W


    Recently, Wiebe and Virgin [Chaos 22, 013136 (2012)] developed an algorithm which detects chaos by analyzing a time series' power spectrum which is computed using the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). Their algorithm, like other time series characterization algorithms, requires that the time series be regularly sampled. Real-world data, however, are often irregularly sampled, thus, making the detection of chaotic behavior difficult or impossible with those methods. In this paper, a characterization algorithm is presented, which effectively detects chaos in irregularly sampled time series. The work presented here is a modification of Wiebe and Virgin's algorithm and uses the Lomb-Scargle Periodogram (LSP) to compute a series' power spectrum instead of the DFT. The DFT is not appropriate for irregularly sampled time series. However, the LSP is capable of computing the frequency content of irregularly sampled data. Furthermore, a new method of analyzing the power spectrum is developed, which can be useful for differentiating between chaotic and non-chaotic behavior. The new characterization algorithm is successfully applied to irregularly sampled data generated by a model as well as data consisting of observations of variable stars.

  14. Estimating drought induced tree mortality in the Amazon rainforest: A simulation study with a focus on plant hydraulic processes (United States)

    Papastefanou, P.; Fleischer, K.; Hickler, T.; Grams, T.; Lapola, D.; Quesada, C. A.; Zang, C.; Rammig, A.


    The Amazon basin was recently hit by severe drought events that were unprecedented in their severity and spatial extent, e.g. during 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016. Significant amounts of biomass were lost, turning large parts of the rainforest from a carbon sink into a carbon source. It is assumed that drought-induced tree mortality from hydraulic failure played an important role during these events and may become more frequent in the Amazon region in the future. Many state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models do not include plant hydraulic processes and fail to reproduce observed rainforest responses to drought events, such as e.g. increased tree mortality. We address this research gap by developing a simple plant-hydraulic module for the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This plant-hydraulic module uses leaf water potential and cavitation as baseline processes to simulate tree mortality under drought stress. Furthermore, we introduce different plant strategies in the model, which describe e.g. differences in the stomatal regulation under drought stress. To parameterize and evaluate our hydraulic module, we use a set of available observational data from the Amazon region. We apply our model to the Amazon Basin and highlight similarities and differences across other measured and predicted drought responses, e.g. extrapolated observations and data derived from satellite measurements. Our results highlight the importance of including plant hydraulic processes in dynamic vegetation models to correctly predict vegetation dynamics under drought stress and show major differences on the vegetation dynamics depending on the selected plant strategies. We also identify gaps in process understanding of the triggering factors, the extent and the consequences of drought responses that hampers our ability to predict potential impact of future drought events on the Amazon rainforest.

  15. Resilient Leaf Physiological Response of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L. to Summer Drought and Drought Release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen E. Pflug


    Full Text Available Drought is a major environmental constraint to trees, causing severe stress and thus adversely affecting their functional integrity. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. is a key species in mesic forests that is commonly expected to suffer in a future climate with more intense and frequent droughts. Here, we assessed the seasonal response of leaf physiological characteristics of beech saplings to drought and drought release to investigate their potential to recover from the imposed stress and overcome previous limitations. Saplings were transplanted to model ecosystems and exposed to a simulated summer drought. Pre-dawn water potentials (ψpd, stomatal conductance (gS, intercellular CO2 concentration (ci, net-photosynthesis (AN, PSII chlorophyll fluorescence (PItot, non-structural carbohydrate concentrations (NSC; soluble sugars, starch and carbon isotope signatures were measured in leaves throughout the growing season. Pre-dawn water potentials (ψpd, gS, ci, AN, and PItot decreased as drought progressed, and the concentration of soluble sugars increased at the expense of starch. Carbon isotopes in soluble sugars (δ13CS showed a distinct increase under drought, suggesting, together with decreased ci, stomatal limitation of AN. Drought effects on ψpd, ci, and NSC disappeared shortly after re-watering, while full recovery of gS, AN, and PItot was delayed by 1 week. The fast recovery of NSC was reflected by a rapid decay of the drought signal in δ13C values, indicating a rapid turnover of assimilates and a reactivation of carbon metabolism. After recovery, the previously drought-exposed saplings showed a stimulation of AN and a trend toward elevated starch concentrations, which counteracted the previous drought limitations. Overall, our results suggest that the internal water relations of beech saplings and the physiological activity of leaves are restored rapidly after drought release. In the case of AN, stimulation after drought may partially

  16. Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems (United States)

    Weng, B. S.; Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Liu, J. H.; Yang, Z. Y.; Qin, T. L.; Yin, J.


    Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960-2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

  17. Local Perception of Drought Impacts in a Changing Climate: The Mega-Drought in Central Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina Aldunce


    Full Text Available Droughts are a recurrent and complex natural hazard whose frequency and magnitude are expected to increase with climate change. Despite the advances in responding and adapting to droughts (with the development of new policies, for example, droughts continue to cause serious impacts and suffering. Developing well-targeted public policies requires further research on adaptation. Specifically, understanding the public perception of drought can help to identify drivers of and barriers to adaptation and options. This research seeks to understand the public perception of drought in central Chile in order to inform adaptation-related policies and decision-making processes. This study focused on the Mega-drought, which was a protracted dry spell afflicting central Chile since 2010.

  18. Fatigue damage estimation using irregularity factor. First report, irregularity factor calculations for narrow and broadband random time histories (United States)

    Susuki, I.


    The results of an analysis of the irregularity factors of stationary and Gaussian random processes which are generated by filtering the output of a pure or a band-limited white noise are presented. An ideal band pass filter, a trapezoidal filter, and a Butterworth type band pass filter were examined. It was found that the values of the irregularity factors were approximately equal among these filters if only the end-slopes were the same rates. As the band width of filters increases, irregularity factors increase monotonically and approach the respective constant values depending on the end-slopes. This implies that the noise characteristics relevant to the fatigue damage such as statistical aspects of the height of the rise and fall or the distribution of the peak values are not changed for a broad band random time history. It was also found that the effect of band limitation of input white noise on irregularity factors is negligibly small.

  19. Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world׳s drylands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Solh


    Drought is a climatic event that cannot be prevented, but interventions and preparedness to drought can help to: (i be better prepared to cope with drought; (ii develop more resilient ecosystems (iii improve resilience to recover from drought; and (iv mitigate the impacts of droughts. Preparedness strategies to drought include: (a geographical shifts of agricultural systems; (b climate-proofing rainfall-based systems; (c making irrigated systems more efficient; (d expanding the intermediate rainfed–irrigated systems. The paper presents successful research results and case studies applying some innovative techniques where clear impact is demonstrated to cope with drought and contribute to food security in dry areas. The CGIAR Consortium Research Program (CRP on “Integrated and Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas” (in short, “Dryland Systems”, led by ICARDA, was launched in May 2013 with many partners and stakeholders from 40 countries. It addresses farming systems in dry areas, at a global level, involving 80 partner institutions. The Dryland Systems Program aims at coping with drought and water scarcity to enhance food security and reduce poverty in dry areas through an integrated agro-ecosystem approach. It will also deliver science-based solutions that can be adopted in regions that are not yet experiencing extreme shocks, but will be affected in the medium to long-term. The approach entails shifting the thinking away from the traditional focus on a small number of research components to take an integrated approach aiming to address agro-ecosystems challenges. Such an approach involves crops, livestock, rangeland, trees, soils, water and policies. It is one of the first global research for development efforts that brings “systems thinking” to farming innovations leading to improved livelihoods in the developing world. The new technique uses modern innovation platforms to involve all

  20. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel


    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  1. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.


    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  2. Operationalising resilience to drought: Multi-layered safety for flooding applied to droughts (United States)

    Rijke, Jeroen; Smith, Jennifer Vessels; Gersonius, Berry; van Herk, Sebastiaan; Pathirana, Assela; Ashley, Richard; Wong, Tony; Zevenbergen, Chris


    This paper sets out a way of thinking about how to prepare for and respond to droughts in a holistic way using a framework developed for managing floods. It shows how the multi-layered safety (MLS) approach for flood resilience can be utilised in the context of drought in a way that three layers of intervention can be distinguished for operationalising drought resilience: (1) protection against water shortage through augmentation and diversification of water supplies; (2) prevention of damage in case of water shortage through increased efficiency of water use and timely asset maintenance; (3) preparedness for future water shortages through mechanisms to reduce the use of water and adopt innovative water technologies. Application of MLS to the cities of Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney shows that recent water reforms in these cities were primarily focused on protection measures that aim to reduce the hazard source or exposure to insufficient water supplies. Prevention and preparedness measures could be considered in defining interventions that aim to further increase the drought resilience of these cities. Although further research is needed, the application suggests that MLS can be applied to the context of drought risk management. The MLS framework can be used to classify the suite of plans deployed by a city to manage future drought risks and can be considered a planning tool to identify opportunities for increasing the level of redundancy and hence resilience of the drought risk management system.

  3. On the propagation of drought : how climate and catchment characteristics influence hydrological drought development and recovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.


    Drought is a severe natural disaster resulting in high economic loss and huge ecological and societal impacts. In this thesis drought is defined as a period of below-normal water availability in precipitation (meteorological drought), soil moisture (soil moisture drought), or groundwater and

  4. On irregularity strength of disjoint union of friendship graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Ahmad


    Full Text Available We investigate the vertex total and edge total modication of the well-known irregularity strength of graphs. We have determined the exact values of the total vertex irregularity strength and the total edge irregularity strength of a disjoint union of friendship graphs.

  5. Influence of mathematical and physical background of drought indices on their complementarity and drought recognition ability (United States)

    Frank, Anna; Armenski, Tanja; Gocic, Milan; Popov, Srdjan; Popovic, Ljiljana; Trajkovic, Slavisa


    The aim of this study is to test how effective and physically correct are the mathematical approaches of operational indices used by relevant National Agencies across the globe. To do so, the following indices were analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Standardized Precipitation - Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Index of Drying Efficiency of Air (IDEA). To make regions more comparable to each other and follow the spatial development of drought SPI index was advised by World Meteorological Organisation to be used widely by official meteorological services. The SPI and SPEI are used for Drought Early Warning in the USA, National Drought Mitigation Center and NASA, and in the EU by the European Drought Centre (EDC) and in the Balkan Region by National Meteorological Agencies. The EDI Index has wide application in Asia. In this paper four different issues were investigated: 1) how the mathematical method used in a drought indicator's computation influence drought indices' (DI) comparative analyses; 2) the sensitivity of the DIs on any change of the length of observational period; 3) similarities between the DIs time series; 4) and how accurate DIs are when compared to historical drought records. Results suggest that it is necessary to apply a few crucial changes in the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: 1) reconsider use of SPI and SPEI family indices as a measure of quality of other indices; and for Drought Early Recognition Programs 2) switch to DIs with a solid physical background, such as EDI; 3) Adopt solid physics for modelling drought processes and define the physical measure of drought, e.g. EDI and IDEA indices; 4) investigate further the IDEA index, which, supported by our study as well, is valuable for simulation of a drought process.

  6. ABA-Mediated Stomatal Response in Regulating Water Use during the Development of Terminal Drought in Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renu Saradadevi


    Full Text Available End-of-season drought or “terminal drought,” which occurs after flowering, is considered the most significant abiotic stress affecting crop yields. Wheat crop production in Mediterranean-type environments is often exposed to terminal drought due to decreasing rainfall and rapid increases in temperature and evapotranspiration during spring when wheat crops enter the reproductive stage. Under such conditions, every millimeter of extra soil water extracted by the roots benefits grain filling and yield and improves water use efficiency (WUE. When terminal drought develops, soil dries from the top, exposing the top part of the root system to dry soil while the bottom part is in contact with available soil water. Plant roots sense the drying soil and produce signals, which on transmission to shoots trigger stomatal closure to regulate crop water use through transpiration. However, transpiration is linked to crop growth and productivity and limiting transpiration may reduce potential yield. While an early and high degree of stomatal closure affects photosynthesis and hence biomass production, a late and low degree of stomatal closure exhausts available soil water rapidly which results in yield losses through a reduction in post-anthesis water use. The plant hormone abscisic acid (ABA is considered the major chemical signal involved in stomatal regulation. Wheat genotypes differ in their ability to produce ABA under drought and also in their stomatal sensitivity to ABA. In this viewpoint article we discuss the possibilities of exploiting genotypic differences in ABA response to soil drying in regulating the use of water under terminal drought. Root density distribution in the upper drying layers of the soil profile is identified as a candidate trait that can affect ABA accumulation and subsequent stomatal closure. We also examine whether leaf ABA can be designated as a surrogate characteristic for improved WUE in wheat to sustain grain yield under

  7. Forages and Pastures Symposium: assessing drought vulnerability of agricultural production systems in context of the 2012 drought. (United States)

    Kellner, O; Niyogi, D


    Weather and climate events and agronomic enterprise are coupled via crop phenology and yield, which is temperature and precipitation dependent. Additional coupling between weather and climate and agronomic enterprise occurs through agricultural practices such as tillage, irrigation, erosion, livestock management, and forage. Thus, the relationship between precipitation, temperature, and yield is coupled to the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and drought. Unraveling the different meteorological and climatological patterns by comparing different growing seasons provides insight into how drought conditions develop and what agricultural producers can do to mitigate and adapt to drought conditions. The 2012 drought in the United States greatly impacted the agricultural sector of the economy. With comparable severity and spatial extent of the droughts of the 1930s, 1950s, and 1980s, the 2012 drought impacted much of the U.S. crop and livestock producers via decreased forage and feed. This brief summary of drought impacts to agricultural production systems includes 1) the basics of drought; 2) the meteorology and climatology involved in forecasting, predicting, and monitoring drought with attribution of the 2012 drought explored in detail; and 3) comparative analysis completed between the 2011 and 2012 growing season. This synthesis highlights the complex nature of drought in agriculture production systems as producers prepare for future climate variability.

  8. Flooding During Drought: Learning from Stakeholder Engagement & Partner Coordination in the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) (United States)

    Sheffield, A. M.


    After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

  9. Exogenous Hydrogen Peroxide Contributes to Heme Oxygenase-1 Delaying Programmed Cell Death in Isolated Aleurone Layers of Rice Subjected to Drought Stress in a cGMP-Dependent Manner (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Xiao, Yu; Deng, Xiaojiang; Zhang, Heting; Li, Tingge; Chen, Huiping


    Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is a reactive oxygen species (ROS) that plays a dual role in plant cells. Here, we discovered that drought (20% polyethylene glycol-6000, PEG)-triggered decreases of HO-1 transcript expression and HO activity. However, exogenous H2O2 contributed toward the increase in HO-1 gene expression and activity of the enzyme under drought stress. Meanwhile, the HO-1 inducer hematin could mimic the effects of the H2O2 scavengers ascorbic acid (AsA) and dimethylthiourea (DMTU) and the H2O2 synthesis inhibitor diphenyleneiodonium (DPI) for scavenging or diminishing drought-induced endogenous H2O2. Conversely, the zinc protoporphyrin IX (ZnPPIX), an HO-1-specific inhibitor, reversed the effects of hematin. We further analyzed the endogenous H2O2 levels and HO-1 transcript expression levels of aleurone layers treated with AsA, DMTU, and DPI in the presence of exogenous H2O2 under drought stress, respectively. The results showed that in aleurone layers subjected to drought stress, when the endogenous H2O2 level was inhibited, the effect of exogenous H2O2 on the induction of HO-1 was enhanced. Furthermore, exogenous H2O2-activated HO-1 effectively enhanced amylase activity. Application of 8-bromoguanosine 3′,5′-cyclic guanosine monophosphate (8-Br-cGMP) (the membrane permeable cGMP analog) promoted the effect of exogenous H2O2-delayed PCD of aleurone layers in response to drought stress. More importantly, HO-1 delayed the programmed cell death (PCD) of aleurone layers by cooperating with nitric oxide (NO), and the delayed effect of NO on PCD was achieved via mediation by cGMP under drought stress. In short, in rice aleurone layers, exogenous H2O2 (as a signaling molecule) triggered HO-1 and delayed PCD via cGMP which possibly induced amylase activity under drought stress. In contrast, as a toxic by-product of cellular metabolism, the drought-generated H2O2 promoted cell death. PMID:29449858

  10. Climate and drought (United States)

    McNab, Alan L.

    Drought is a complex phenomenon that can be defined from several perspectives [Wilhite and Glantz, 1987]. The common characteristic and central idea of these perspectives is the straightforward notion of a water deficit. Complexity arises because of the need to specify the part of the hydrologic cycle experiencing the deficit and the associated time period. For example, a long-term deficit in deep groundwater storage can occur simultaneously with a short-term surplus of root zone soil water.Figure 1 [Changnon, 1987] illustrates how the definitions of drought are related to specific components of the hydrologic cycle. The dashed lines indicate the delayed translation of two hypothetical precipitation deficits with respect to runoff, soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater. From this perspective, precipitation can be considered as the carrier of the drought signal, and hydrological processes are among the final indicators that reveal the presence of drought [Hare, 1987; Klemes, 1987].

  11. Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment (DroughtPEX_China) (United States)

    Li, Yaohui


    Drought is one of the most common and frequent nature disasters in the world, particularly in China under the continental monsoonal climate with great variation. About thirty percent of economic loss caused by natural disasters is contributed by droughts in China, which is by far the most damaging weather disasters because of its long duration and extensive hazard areas. Droughts not only have a serious impact on the agriculture, water resources, ecology, natural environment, but also seriously affect the socio-economic such as human health, energy and transportation. Worsely, under the background of climate change, droughts in show increases in frequency, duration and scope in many places around the world, particularly northern China. Nowadays, droughts have aroused extensive concern of the scientists, governments and international community, and became one of the important scientific issues in geoscience research. However, most of researches on droughts in China so far were focused on the causes or regulars of one type of droughts (the atmosphere, agriculture or hydrological) from the perspective of the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Few of them considered a whole cycle of the drought-forming process from atmosphere-land interaction to agricultural/ecological one in terms of the land-atmosphere interaction; meanwhile, the feedback mechanism with the drought and land-atmosphere interaction is still unclear as well. All of them is because of lack of the relevant comprehensive observation experiment. "Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment" (DroughtPEX_China)is just launched in this requirement and background. DroughtPEX_China is supported by Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) of China (Grant No.GYHY201506001)—"Drought Meteorology Scientific Research Project—the disaster-causing process and mechanism of drought in northern China". This project

  12. Characteristics of ionospheric irregularities causing scintillations at VHF/UHF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vats, H.O.; Deshpande, M.R.; Rastogi, R.G.


    Some properties of ionization irregularities using amplitude scintillation records of radio beacons from ATS-6 (phase II) at Ootacamund, India have been investigated. For the estimation of scale-size and strength of the irregularities a simple diffraction model has been used which explains only weak and moderate equatorial scintillation observations. It was found that the scale sizes of day time E-region irregularities are smaller than those in the F-region during night time in addition, irregularities are generated initially at large scale sizes which later break up into smaller scale sizes

  13. A Comparison of Satellite Data-Based Drought Indicators in Detecting the 2012 Drought in the Southeastern US (United States)

    Yagci, Ali Levent; Santanello, Joseph A.; Rodell, Matthew; Deng, Meixia; Di, Liping


    The drought of 2012 in the North America devastated agricultural crops and pastures, further damaging agriculture and livestock industries and leading to great losses in the economy. The drought maps of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and various drought monitoring techniques based on the data collected by the satellites orbiting in space such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inter-compared during the 2012 drought conditions in the southeastern United States. The results indicated that spatial extent of drought reported by USDM were in general agreement with those reported by the MODIS-based drought maps. GRACE-based drought maps suggested that the southeastern US experienced widespread decline in surface and root-zone soil moisture and groundwater resources. Disagreements among all drought indicators were observed over irrigated areas, especially in Lower Mississippi region where agriculture is mainly irrigated. Besides, we demonstrated that time lag of vegetation response to changes in soil moisture and groundwater partly contributed to these disagreements, as well.


    CERN Multimedia

    Wesley Smith

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The hardware of the trigger components has been mostly finished. The ECAL Endcap Trigger Concentrator Cards (TCC) are in production while Barrel TCC firmware has been upgraded, and the Trigger Primitives can now be stored by the Data Concentrator Card for readout by the DAQ. The Regional Calorimeter Trigger (RCT) system is complete, and the timing is being finalized. All 502 HCAL trigger links to RCT run without error. The HCAL muon trigger timing has been equalized with DT, RPC, CSC and ECAL. The hardware and firmware for the Global Calorimeter Trigger (GCT) jet triggers are being commissioned and data from these triggers is available for readout. The GCT energy sums from rings of trigger towers around the beam pipe beam have been changed to include two rings from both sides. The firmware for Drift Tube Track Finder, Barrel Sorter and Wedge Sorter has been upgraded, and the synchronization of the DT trigger is satisfactory. The CSC local trigger has operated flawlessly u...

  15. 14 CFR 135.65 - Reporting mechanical irregularities. (United States)


    ... irregularities and their correction. (b) The pilot in command shall enter or have entered in the aircraft maintenance log each mechanical irregularity that comes to the pilot's attention during flight time. Before each flight, the pilot in command shall, if the pilot does not already know, determine the status of...

  16. Low Temperature-Induced 30 (LTI30 positively regulates drought stress resistance in Arabidopsis: effect on abscisic acid sensitivity and hydrogen peroxide accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao eShi


    Full Text Available As a dehydrin belonging to group II late embryogenesis abundant protein (LEA family, Arabidopsis Low Temperature-Induced 30 (LTI30/XERO2 has been shown to be involved in plant freezing stress resistance. However, the other roles of AtLTI30 remain unknown. In this study, we found that the expression of AtLTI30 was largely induced by drought stress and abscisic acid (ABA treatments. Thereafter, AtLTI30 knockout mutants and overexpressing plants were isolated to investigate the possible involvement of AtLTI30 in ABA and drought stress responses. AtLTI30 knockout mutants were less sensitive to ABA-mediated seed germination, while AtLTI30 overexpressing plants were more sensitive to ABA compared with wild type (WT. Consistently, the AtLTI30 knockout mutants displayed decreased drought stress resistance, while the AtLTI30 overexpressing plants showed improved drought stress resistance compared with WT, as evidenced by a higher survival rate and lower leaf water loss than WT after drought stress. Moreover, manipulation of AtLTI30 expression positively regulated the activities of catalases (CATs and endogenous proline content, as a result, negatively regulated drought stress-triggered hydrogen peroxide (H2O2 accumulation. All these results indicate that AtLTI30 is a positive regulator of plant drought stress resistance, partially through the modulation of ABA sensitivity, H2O2 and proline accumulation.

  17. Fostering drought research and science-policy interfacing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van Henny A.J.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis; Stahl, Kerstin; Wolters, Wouter; Andreu, Joaquin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stefano, De Lucia; Seidl, Irmi; Rego, Francisco Castro; Massarutto, Antonio; Garnier, Emmanuel


    The DROUGHT-R&SPI project adopted a transdisciplinary approach that combined drought analyses for six selected Case Studies across Europe with drought analyses at the pan-European scale both for past and future climates. Achievements on drought as natural hazard, drought impacts, responses

  18. Pathways Into and Out of the 2012-2016 California-Nevada Drought—Lessons for Future Drought and Drought Termination (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.


    Droughts in California have historically been a function of prolonged deficits of precipitation from the largest storms (much more so than from medium to weak storms), and drought endings typically reflect the return of those same large storms and more. The recent 2012-2016 drought in California followed this pattern, being bracketed by the extremely wet 2011 and 2017 water years, both brought about by the arrival of multiple major atmospheric river storms, and was marked by one of the episodic multi-year periods when these storms are diverted from the State by anomalous atmospheric circulations over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The 2012-2016 episode was also marked by conditions that have been much less "normal" for California droughts, with record warm temperatures adding significantly to the drought and its impacts. Except in the highest mountains, these temperatures contributed as much to the drought potential as did precipitation deficits. The temperatures also led to record snow droughts that focused most in the low to middle altitude snowfields. Together the persistent precipitation deficits and high temperatures of this drought are a prescient example of a major drought with precipitation deficits emphasized at higher altitudes and temperature effects at lower altitudes. This drought ended with the remarkably wet 2017 water year, due to the arrival of a record number of large atmospheric river storms and associated precipitation. But this termination of precipitation drought was marked by its own flirtation with record-breaking "warm" snow drought conditions in late 2016 as well as by an eventual springtime snowpack that was very large but nowhere near as large as in other historical years with correspondingly large precipitation totals, especially at low to middle altitudes. These patterns of temperature-accentuated drought emphasized at lower altitudes and precipitation-driven droughts and drought endings emphasized at higher altitudes, both delineated

  19. Examining the extreme 2017 spring drought event in South Korea using a suite of drought indices (SPI, SC-PDSI, SPEI, EDI) (United States)

    Nam, W. H.; Hayes, M. J.; Svoboda, M. D.; Fuchs, B.; Tadesse, T.; Wilhite, D. A.; Hong, E. M.; Kim, T.


    South Korea has experienced extreme droughts in 1994-1995, 2000-2001, 2012, 2015, and 2016-2017. The 2017 spring drought (with especially low winter precipitation recorded in winter 2016) affected a large portion of central and western South Korea, and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since the 2000-2001 drought. The spring drought of 2017 was characterized by exceptionally low precipitation with total precipitation from January to June being 50% lower than the mean normal precipitation record (1981-2010) over most of western South Korea. It was the climatologically driest spring over the 1961-2016 record period. Effective drought monitoring and management depends on which drought indices are selected because each drought index has different drought criteria or levels of drought severity, associated with drought responses. In this study, for the quantitative analysis of the spring 2017 drought event in South Korea, four widely-used drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI), and the Effective Drought Index (EDI) are compared with observed drought damaged areas in the context of agricultural drought impacts. The South Korean government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)) has been operating a government-level drought monitoring system since 2016. Results from this study can be used to improve the drought monitoring applications, as well as drought planning and preparedness in South Korea.

  20. Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System (United States)

    Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.


    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

  1. Orbital and Collisional Evolution of the Irregular Satellites (United States)

    Nesvorný, David; Alvarellos, Jose L. A.; Dones, Luke; Levison, Harold F.


    The irregular moons of the Jovian planets are a puzzling part of the solar system inventory. Unlike regular satellites, the irregular moons revolve around planets at large distances in tilted and eccentric orbits. Their origin, which is intimately linked with the origin of the planets themselves, is yet to be explained. Here we report a study of the orbital and collisional evolution of the irregular satellites from times after their formation to the present epoch. The purpose of this study is to find out the features of the observed irregular moons that can be attributed to this evolution and separate them from signatures of the formation process. We numerically integrated ~60,000 test satellite orbits to map orbital locations that are stable on long time intervals. We found that the orbits highly inclined to the ecliptic are unstable due to the effect of the Kozai resonance, which radially stretches them so that satellites either escape from the Hill sphere, collide with massive inner moons, or impact the parent planet. We also found that prograde satellite orbits with large semimajor axes are unstable due to the effect of the evection resonance, which locks the orbit's apocenter to the apparent motion of the Sun around the parent planet. In such a resonance, the effect of solar tides on a resonant moon accumulates at each apocenter passage of the moon, which causes a radially outward drift of its orbital apocenter; once close to the Hill sphere, the moon escapes. By contrast, retrograde moons with large orbital semimajor axes are long-lived. We have developed an analytic model of the distant satellite orbits and used it to explain the results of our numerical experiments. In particular, we analytically studied the effect of the Kozai resonance. We numerically integrated the orbits of the 50 irregular moons (known by 2002 August 16) for 108 yr. All orbits were stable on this time interval and did not show any macroscopic variations that would indicate

  2. Assessing the utility of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought based on soil moisture in Chongqing, China (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hong-Bin


    Numerous drought indices have been developed to analyze and monitor drought condition, but they are region specific and limited by various climatic conditions. In southwest China, summer drought mainly occurs from June to September, causing destructive and profound impact on agriculture, society, and ecosystems. The current study assesses the availability of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought in this area at 5-day scale. The drought indices include the relative moisture index ( M), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the composite index of meteorological drought (CIspi), and the improved composite index of meteorological drought (CIwap). Long-term daily precipitation and temperature from 1970 to 2014 are used to calculate 30-day M ( M 30), SPI (SPI30), SPEI (SPEI30), 90-day SPEI (SPEI90), CIspi, and CIwap. The 5-day soil moisture observations from 2010 to 2013 are applied to assess the performance of these drought indices. Correlation analysis, overall accuracy, and kappa coefficient are utilized to investigate the relationships between soil moisture and drought indices. Correlation analysis indicates that soil moisture is well correlated with CIwap, SPEI30, M 30, SPI30, and CIspi except SPEI90. Moreover, drought classifications identified by M 30 are in agreement with that of the observed soil moisture. The results show that M 30 based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is an appropriate indicator for monitoring drought condition at a finer scale in the study area. According to M 30, summer drought during 1970-2014 happened in each year and showed a slightly upward tendency in recent years.

  3. Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: Mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements (United States)

    Breshears, D.D.; Myers, O.B.; Meyer, Clifton W.; Barnes, F.J.; Zou, C.B.; Allen, Craig D.; McDowell, N.G.; Pockman, W. T.


    Global climate change is projected to produce warmer, longer, and more frequent droughts, referred to here as “global change-type droughts”, which have the potential to trigger widespread tree die-off. However, drought-induced tree mortality cannot be predicted with confidence, because long-term field observations of plant water stress prior to, and culminating in, mortality are rare, precluding the development and testing of mechanisms. Here, we document plant water stress in two widely distributed, co-occurring species, piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma), over more than a decade, leading up to regional-scale die-off of piñon pine trees in response to global change-related drought. Piñon leaf water potentials remained substantially below their zero carbon assimilation point for at least 10 months prior to dying, in contrast to those of juniper, which rarely dropped below their zero-assimilation point. These data suggest that piñon mortality was driven by protracted water stress, leading to carbon starvation and associated increases in susceptibility to other disturbances (eg bark beetles), a finding that should help to improve predictions of mortality during drought.

  4. Decomposing Oriented Graphs into Six Locally Irregular Oriented Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bensmail, Julien; Renault, Gabriel


    An undirected graph G is locally irregular if every two of its adjacent vertices have distinct degrees. We say that G is decomposable into k locally irregular graphs if there exists a partition E1∪E2∪⋯∪Ek of the edge set E(G) such that each Ei induces a locally irregular graph. It was recently co...

  5. Economics and societal considerations of drought (United States)

    Jeff Prestemon; Linda Kruger; Karen L. Abt; Michael Bowker; Consuelo Brandeis; Dave Calkin; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Charlotte Ham; Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey Kline; Travis Warziniack


    The economic and social effects of drought are diverse and related to physical characteristics of drought, including spatial extent, severity, duration, and frequency that combine to determine drought’s overall effects on society. Most of the attention given to economic and social impacts of drought focuses on adverse consequences, but technology, public...

  6. Drought and groundwater management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Eirik S; Jensen, Frank

    This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii......-drought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water under policy iii) is smaller than under policy ii) and, hence, a precautionary stock size should not be built up prior to the drought....

  7. Introduction 'Governance for Drought Resilience'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bressers, Nanny; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Larrue, Corinne; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne


    This book is about governance for drought resilience. But that simple sentence alone might rouse several questions. Because what do we mean with drought, and how does that relate to water scarcity? And what do we mean with resilience, and why is resilience needed for tackling drought? And how does

  8. Design Optimization of Irregular Cellular Structure for Additive Manufacturing (United States)

    Song, Guo-Hua; Jing, Shi-Kai; Zhao, Fang-Lei; Wang, Ye-Dong; Xing, Hao; Zhou, Jing-Tao


    Irregularcellular structurehas great potential to be considered in light-weight design field. However, the research on optimizing irregular cellular structures has not yet been reporteddue to the difficulties in their modeling technology. Based on the variable density topology optimization theory, an efficient method for optimizing the topology of irregular cellular structures fabricated through additive manufacturing processes is proposed. The proposed method utilizes tangent circles to automatically generate the main outline of irregular cellular structure. The topological layoutof each cellstructure is optimized using the relative density informationobtained from the proposed modified SIMP method. A mapping relationship between cell structure and relative densityelement is builtto determine the diameter of each cell structure. The results show that the irregular cellular structure can be optimized with the proposed method. The results of simulation and experimental test are similar for irregular cellular structure, which indicate that the maximum deformation value obtained using the modified Solid Isotropic Microstructures with Penalization (SIMP) approach is lower 5.4×10-5 mm than that using the SIMP approach under the same under the same external load. The proposed research provides the instruction to design the other irregular cellular structure.

  9. Drought Tolerance Conferred to Sugarcane by Association with Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus: A Transcriptomic View of Hormone Pathways (United States)

    Vargas, Lívia; Santa Brígida, Ailton B.; Mota Filho, José P.; de Carvalho, Thais G.; Rojas, Cristian A.; Vaneechoutte, Dries; Van Bel, Michiel; Farrinelli, Laurent; Ferreira, Paulo C. G.; Vandepoele, Klaas; Hemerly, Adriana S.


    -1143, and it describes the initial molecular events that may trigger the increased drought tolerance in the host plant. PMID:25489849

  10. Drought tolerance conferred to sugarcane by association with Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus: a transcriptomic view of hormone pathways.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lívia Vargas

    sugarcane cv. SP70-1143, and it describes the initial molecular events that may trigger the increased drought tolerance in the host plant.

  11. Drought tolerance conferred to sugarcane by association with Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus: a transcriptomic view of hormone pathways. (United States)

    Vargas, Lívia; Santa Brígida, Ailton B; Mota Filho, José P; de Carvalho, Thais G; Rojas, Cristian A; Vaneechoutte, Dries; Van Bel, Michiel; Farrinelli, Laurent; Ferreira, Paulo C G; Vandepoele, Klaas; Hemerly, Adriana S


    -1143, and it describes the initial molecular events that may trigger the increased drought tolerance in the host plant.

  12. Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective (United States)

    Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.


    Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all


    CERN Multimedia

    Wesley Smith

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The trigger synchronization procedures for running with cosmic muons and operating with the LHC were reviewed during the May electronics week. Firmware maintenance issues were also reviewed. Link tests between the new ECAL endcap trigger concentrator cards (TCC48) and the Regional Calorimeter Trigger have been performed. Firmware for the energy sum triggers and an upgraded tau trigger of the Global Calorimeter Triggers has been developed and is under test. The optical fiber receiver boards for the Track-Finder trigger theta links of the DT chambers are now all installed. The RPC trigger is being made more robust by additional chamber and cable shielding and also by firmware upgrades. For the CSC’s the front-end and trigger motherboard firmware have been updated. New RPC patterns and DT/CSC lookup tables taking into account phi asymmetries in the magnetic field configuration are under study. The motherboard for the new pipeline synchronizer of the Global Trigg...

  14. Drought tolerance in potato (S. tuberosum L.): Can we learn from drought tolerance research in cereals? (United States)

    Monneveux, Philippe; Ramírez, David A; Pino, María-Teresa


    Drought tolerance is a complex trait of increasing importance in potato. Our knowledge is summarized concerning drought tolerance and water use efficiency in this crop. We describe the effects of water restriction on physiological characteristics, examine the main traits involved, report the attempts to improve drought tolerance through in vitro screening and marker assisted selection, list the main genes involved and analyze the potential interest of native and wild potatoes to improve drought tolerance. Drought tolerance has received more attention in cereals than in potato. The review compares these crops for indirect selection methods available for assessment of drought tolerance related traits, use of genetic resources, progress in genomics, application of water saving techniques and availability of models to anticipate the effects of climate change on yield. It is concluded that drought tolerance improvement in potato could greatly benefit from the transfer of research achievements in cereals. Several promising research directions are presented, such as the use of fluorescence, reflectance, color and thermal imaging and stable isotope techniques to assess drought tolerance related traits, the application of the partial root-zone drying technique to improve efficiency of water supply and the exploitation of stressful memory to enhance hardiness. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Drought as a natural disaster

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maybank, J. [Agvironics Consulting, SK (Canada); Bonsal, B. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Jones, K. [Environment Canada, Downsview, ON (Canada). Canadian Climate Centre; Lawford, R. [Canadian Climate Centre, Saskatoon, SK (Canada). National Hydrology Research Centre; O`Brien, E.G. [Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Energy Analysis and Policy Div.; Ripley, E.A. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Soil Science; Wheaton, E. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)


    A discussion of droughts as a major natural disaster in dry areas such as the Canadian Prairies where precipitation patterns are seasonal, was presented. Environmental damages include soil degradation and erosion, vegetation damage, slough and lake deterioration and wildlife loss. The development and application of specific soil moisture and drought indices based on cumulative precipitation deficits have enhanced drought monitoring programs. The identification of precursor conditions raises the possibility that the likelihood of a drought occurring in a particular year or growing season might be predictable. The ability to forecast seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies is potentially feasible using a suitable merging of precursor parameters and modelling methodologies. Research activity to identify and evaluate new mitigative measure should be increased to keep pace with the prospects of drought predictability. 90 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  16. Drought priming at vegetative growth stage enhances nitrogen-use efficiency under post-anthesis drought and heat stress in wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, S.; Li, Xiangnan; Larsen, Dorthe Horn


    reached ca. −0.9 MPa) at the 5th-leaf stage for 11 days, and leaf water relations and gas exchange rates, grain yield and yield components, and agronomic nitrogen-use efficiency (ANUE) of the primed and non-primed plants under post-anthesis drought and heat stress were investigated. Compared with the non......To study the effects of early drought priming at 5th-leaf stage on grain yield and nitrogen-use efficiency in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under post-anthesis drought and heat stress, wheat plants were first exposed to moderate drought stress (drought priming; that is, the leaf water potential......-primed plants, the drought-primed plants possessed higher leaf water potential and chlorophyll content, and consequently a higher photosynthetic rate during post-anthesis drought and heat stress. Drought priming also resulted in higher grain yield and ANUE in wheat under post-anthesis drought and heat stress...

  17. Plasma Irregularity Production in the Polar Cap F-Region Ionosphere (United States)

    Lamarche, Leslie

    Plasma in the Earth's ionosphere is highly irregular on scales ranging between a few centimeters and hundreds of kilometers. Small-scale irregularities or plasma waves can scatter radio waves resulting in a loss of signal for navigation and communication networks. The polar region is particularly susceptible to strong disturbances due to its direct connection with the Sun's magnetic field and energetic particles. In this thesis, factors that contribute to the production of decameter-scale plasma irregularities in the polar F region ionosphere are investigated. Both global and local control of irregularity production are studied, i.e. we consider global solar control through solar illumination and solar wind as well as much more local control by plasma density gradients and convection electric field. In the first experimental study, solar control of irregularity production is investigated using the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar at McMurdo, Antarctica. The occurrence trends for irregularities are analyzed statistically and a model is developed that describes the location of radar echoes within the radar's field-of-view. The trends are explained through variations in background plasma density with solar illumination affecting radar beam propagation. However, it is found that the irregularity occurrence during the night is higher than expected from ray tracing simulations based on a standard ionospheric density model. The high occurrence at night implies an additional source of plasma density and it is proposed that large-scale density enhancements called polar patches may be the source of this density. Additionally, occurrence maximizes around the terminator due to different competing irregularity production processes that favor a more or less sunlit ionosphere. The second study is concerned with modeling irregularity characteristics near a large-scale density gradient reversal, such as those expected near polar patches, with a particular focus on

  18. Drought Tolerance in Modern and Wild Wheat (United States)

    Budak, Hikmet; Kantar, Melda; Yucebilgili Kurtoglu, Kuaybe


    The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum) and durum wheat (Triticum durum) and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides), which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance. PMID:23766697

  19. Drought Tolerance in Modern and Wild Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hikmet Budak


    Full Text Available The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum and durum wheat (Triticum durum and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides, which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance.

  20. Irregular activity arises as a natural consequence of synaptic inhibition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terman, D.; Rubin, J. E.; Diekman, C. O.


    Irregular neuronal activity is observed in a variety of brain regions and states. This work illustrates a novel mechanism by which irregular activity naturally emerges in two-cell neuronal networks featuring coupling by synaptic inhibition. We introduce a one-dimensional map that captures the irregular activity occurring in our simulations of conductance-based differential equations and mathematically analyze the instability of fixed points corresponding to synchronous and antiphase spiking for this map. We find that the irregular solutions that arise exhibit expansion, contraction, and folding in phase space, as expected in chaotic dynamics. Our analysis shows that these features are produced from the interplay of synaptic inhibition with sodium, potassium, and leak currents in a conductance-based framework and provides precise conditions on parameters that ensure that irregular activity will occur. In particular, the temporal details of spiking dynamics must be present for a model to exhibit this irregularity mechanism and must be considered analytically to capture these effects

  1. Irregular activity arises as a natural consequence of synaptic inhibition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terman, D., E-mail: [Department of Mathematics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States); Rubin, J. E., E-mail: [Department of Mathematics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260 (United States); Diekman, C. O., E-mail: [Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, New Jersey 07102 (United States)


    Irregular neuronal activity is observed in a variety of brain regions and states. This work illustrates a novel mechanism by which irregular activity naturally emerges in two-cell neuronal networks featuring coupling by synaptic inhibition. We introduce a one-dimensional map that captures the irregular activity occurring in our simulations of conductance-based differential equations and mathematically analyze the instability of fixed points corresponding to synchronous and antiphase spiking for this map. We find that the irregular solutions that arise exhibit expansion, contraction, and folding in phase space, as expected in chaotic dynamics. Our analysis shows that these features are produced from the interplay of synaptic inhibition with sodium, potassium, and leak currents in a conductance-based framework and provides precise conditions on parameters that ensure that irregular activity will occur. In particular, the temporal details of spiking dynamics must be present for a model to exhibit this irregularity mechanism and must be considered analytically to capture these effects.

  2. Building the vegetation drought response index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) to monitor agricultural drought: first results (United States)

    Tadesse, Tsegaye; Champagne, Catherine; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hadwen, Trevor A.; Brown, Jesslyn; Demisse, Getachew B.; Bayissa, Yared A.; Davidson, Andrew M.


    Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs throughout the world and impacts many sectors of society. To help decision-makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve monitoring tools that provide relevant and timely information in support of drought mitigation decisions. Given that drought is a complex natural hazard that manifests in different forms, monitoring can be improved by integrating various types of information (e.g., remote sensing and climate) that is timely and region specific to identify where and when droughts are occurring. The Vegetation Drought Response Index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) is a recently developed drought monitoring tool for Canada. VegDRI-Canada extends the initial VegDRI concept developed for the conterminous United States to a broader transnational coverage across North America. VegDRI-Canada models are similar to those developed for the United States, integrating satellite observations of vegetation status, climate data, and biophysical information on land use and land cover, soil characteristics, and other environmental factors. Collectively, these different types of data are integrated into the hybrid VegDRI-Canada to isolate the effects of drought on vegetation. Twenty-three weekly VegDRI-Canada models were built for the growing season (April–September) through the weekly analysis of these data using a regression tree-based data mining approach. A 15-year time series of VegDRI-Canada results (s to 2014) was produced using these models and the output was validated by randomly selecting 20% of the historical data, as well as holdout year (15% unseen data) across the growing season that the Pearson’s correlation ranged from 0.6 to 0.77. A case study was also conducted to evaluate the VegDRI-Canada results over the prairie region of Canada for two drought years and one non-drought year for three weekly periods of the growing season (i.e., early-, mid-, and late season). The comparison of the Veg

  3. Parallel Computing Strategies for Irregular Algorithms (United States)

    Biswas, Rupak; Oliker, Leonid; Shan, Hongzhang; Biegel, Bryan (Technical Monitor)


    Parallel computing promises several orders of magnitude increase in our ability to solve realistic computationally-intensive problems, but relies on their efficient mapping and execution on large-scale multiprocessor architectures. Unfortunately, many important applications are irregular and dynamic in nature, making their effective parallel implementation a daunting task. Moreover, with the proliferation of parallel architectures and programming paradigms, the typical scientist is faced with a plethora of questions that must be answered in order to obtain an acceptable parallel implementation of the solution algorithm. In this paper, we consider three representative irregular applications: unstructured remeshing, sparse matrix computations, and N-body problems, and parallelize them using various popular programming paradigms on a wide spectrum of computer platforms ranging from state-of-the-art supercomputers to PC clusters. We present the underlying problems, the solution algorithms, and the parallel implementation strategies. Smart load-balancing, partitioning, and ordering techniques are used to enhance parallel performance. Overall results demonstrate the complexity of efficiently parallelizing irregular algorithms.

  4. Advances in electron dosimetry of irregular fields; Avances en dosimetria de electrones de campos irregulares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendez V, J. [Departamento de Radioterapia, Instituto de Enfermedades Neoplasicas, Avenida Angamos Este 2520, Lima 34 (Peru)


    In this work it is presented an advance in Electron dosimetry of irregular fields for beams emitted by linear accelerators. At present diverse methods exist which are coming to apply in the Radiotherapy centers. In this work it is proposed a method for irregular fields dosimetry. It will be allow to calculate the dose rate absorbed required for evaluating the time for the treatment of cancer patients. Utilizing the results obtained by the dosimetric system, it has been possible to prove the validity of the method describe for 12 MeV energy and for square field 7.5 x 7.5 cm{sup 2} with percentile error less than 1 % . (Author)

  5. The North American Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Drought Variability for Climate Modeling and Assessment (United States)

    Cook, E. R.


    The North American Drought Atlas describes a detailed reconstruction of drought variability from tree rings over most of North America for the past 500-1000 years. The first version of it, produced over three years ago, was based on a network of 835 tree-ring chronologies and a 286-point grid of instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). These gridded PDSI reconstructions have been used in numerous published studies now that range from modeling fire in the American West, to the impact of drought on palaeo-Indian societies, and to the determination of the primary causes of drought over North America through climate modeling experiments. Some examples of these applications will be described to illustrate the scientific value of these large-scale reconstructions of drought. Since the development and free public release of Version 1 of the North American Drought Atlas (see, great improvements have been made in the critical tree-ring network used to reconstruct PDSI at each grid point. This network has now been enlarged to 1743 annual tree-ring chronologies, which greatly improves the density of tree-ring records in certain parts of the grid, especially in Canada and Mexico. In addition, the number of tree-ring records that extend back before AD 1400 has been substantially increased. These developments justify the creation of Version 2 of the North American Drought Atlas. In this talk I will describe this new version of the drought atlas and some of its properties that make it a significant improvement over the previous version. The new product provides enhanced resolution of the spatial and temporal variability of prolonged drought such as the late 16th century event that impacted regions of both Mexico and the United States. I will also argue for the North American Drought Atlas being used as a template for the development of large-scale drought reconstructions in other land areas of

  6. Precursor conditions related to Zimbabwe's summer droughts (United States)

    Nangombe, Shingirai; Madyiwa, Simon; Wang, Jianhong


    Despite the increasing severity of droughts and their effects on Zimbabwe's agriculture, there are few tools available for predicting these droughts in advance. Consequently, communities and farmers are more exposed, and policy makers are always ill prepared for such. This study sought to investigate possible cycles and precursor meteorological conditions prior to drought seasons that could be used to predict impending droughts in Zimbabwe. The Single Z-Index was used to identify and grade drought years between 1951 and 2010 according to rainfall severity. Spectral analysis was used to reveal the cycles of droughts for possible use of these cycles for drought prediction. Composite analysis was used to investigate circulation and temperature anomalies associated with severe and extreme drought years. Results indicate that severe droughts are more highly correlated with circulation patterns and embedded weather systems in the Indian Ocean and equatorial Pacific Ocean than any other area. This study identified sea surface temperatures in the average period June to August, geopotential height and wind vector in July to September period, and air temperature in September to November period as precursors that can be used to predict a drought occurrence several months in advance. Therefore, in addition to sea surface temperature, which was identified through previous research for predicting Zimbabwean droughts, the other parameters identified in this study can aid in drought prediction. Drought cycles were established at 20-, 12.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-year cycles. The spectral peaks, 12.5, 3.2, and 2.7, had a similar timescale with the luni-solar tide, El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation, respectively, and hence, occurrence of these phenomena have a possibility of indicating when the next drought might be.

  7. Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes. (United States)

    Gazol, Antonio; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Gutiérrez, Emilia; de Luis, Martin; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Novak, Klemen; Rozas, Vicente; Tíscar, Pedro A; Linares, Juan C; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Martínez Del Castillo, Edurne; Ribas, Montse; García-González, Ignacio; Silla, Fernando; Camisón, Alvaro; Génova, Mar; Olano, José M; Longares, Luis A; Hevia, Andrea; Tomás-Burguera, Miquel; Galván, J Diego


    Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith


      Level-1 Trigger The Level-1 Trigger group is ready to deploy improvements to the L1 Trigger algorithms for 2012. These include new high-PT patterns for the RPC endcap, an improved CSC PT assignment, a new PT-matching algorithm for the Global Muon Trigger, and new calibrations for ECAL, HCAL, and the Regional Calorimeter Trigger. These should improve the efficiency, rate, and stability of the L1 Trigger. The L1 Trigger group also is migrating the online systems to SLC5. To make the data transfer from the Global Calorimeter Trigger to the Global Trigger more reliable and also to allow checking the data integrity online, a new optical link system has been developed by the GCT and GT groups and successfully tested at the CMS electronics integration facility in building 904. This new system is now undergoing further tests at Point 5 before being deployed for data-taking this year. New L1 trigger menus have recently been studied and proposed by Emmanuelle Perez and the L1 Detector Performance Group...

  9. Vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities to droughts. (United States)

    Vogt, D J; Vogt, K A; Gmur, S J; Scullion, J J; Suntana, A S; Daryanto, S; Sigurðardóttir, R


    (>3500 mm) levels. By combining data on the ratios of precipitation to the amount of biomass produced in a year with how much less precipitation input occurs during a drought year, it is possible to estimate whether productivity levels are sufficient to support forest growth and forest dependent communities following a drought. In this study, the ratios of annual precipitation inputs required to produce 1 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) biomass by soil texture class varied across the three soil textural classes. By using a conservative estimate of 20% of productivity collected or harvested by people and 30% precipitation reduction level as triggering a drought, it was possible to estimate a potential loss of annual productivity due to a drought. In this study, the total NPP unavailable due to drought and harvest by forest dependent communities per year was 10.2 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for the sandy textured soils (64% of NPP still available), 8.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for the sandy loam textured soils (60% available) and 12.7 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for the clay textured soils (29% available). Forests growing on clay textured soils would be most vulnerable to drought triggered reductions in productivity so NPP levels would be inadequate to maintain ecosystem functions and would potentially cause a forest-to-savanna shift. Further, these forests would not be able to provide sufficient NPP to satisfy the requirements of forest dependent communities. By predicting the productivity responses of different tropical forest ecosystems to changes in precipitation patterns coupled with edaphic data, it could be possible to spatially identify where tropical forests are most vulnerable to climate change impacts and where mitigation efforts should be concentrated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Status of Drought and Desertification in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutiso, S.K


    The author defined drought in three points of view, viz: agricultural, meteorological and hydrological. All categories of drought are important in the understanding of the society's vulnerability to drought and adjustment mechanisms. Agricultural and hydrological droughts have been shown to have far greater socio-economic and political impacts to people living in the dry lands. methods of predicting drought have been highlighted. Early warning systems should be put in places at District level. Mitigation and rehabilitation of people suffering drought and attendant famine should involve both short term and long term strategies. Rain-harvesting techniques, soil and water conservation, crop water requirement and drought risk forecasting should be carried out along with other measures to combat desrtification

  11. Novel Digital Features Discriminate Between Drought Resistant and Drought Sensitive Rice Under Controlled and Field Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingfeng Duan


    Full Text Available Dynamic quantification of drought response is a key issue both for variety selection and for functional genetic study of rice drought resistance. Traditional assessment of drought resistance traits, such as stay-green and leaf-rolling, has utilized manual measurements, that are often subjective, error-prone, poorly quantified and time consuming. To relieve this phenotyping bottleneck, we demonstrate a feasible, robust and non-destructive method that dynamically quantifies response to drought, under both controlled and field conditions. Firstly, RGB images of individual rice plants at different growth points were analyzed to derive 4 features that were influenced by imposition of drought. These include a feature related to the ability to stay green, which we termed greenness plant area ratio (GPAR and 3 shape descriptors [total plant area/bounding rectangle area ratio (TBR, perimeter area ratio (PAR and total plant area/convex hull area ratio (TCR]. Experiments showed that these 4 features were capable of discriminating reliably between drought resistant and drought sensitive accessions, and dynamically quantifying the drought response under controlled conditions across time (at either daily or half hourly time intervals. We compared the 3 shape descriptors and concluded that PAR was more robust and sensitive to leaf-rolling than the other shape descriptors. In addition, PAR and GPAR proved to be effective in quantification of drought response in the field. Moreover, the values obtained in field experiments using the collection of rice varieties were correlated with those derived from pot-based experiments. The general applicability of the algorithms is demonstrated by their ability to probe archival Miscanthus data previously collected on an independent platform. In conclusion, this image-based technology is robust providing a platform-independent tool for quantifying drought response that should be of general utility for breeding and functional

  12. Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiso Muyambo


    Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

  13. Improved drought monitoring in the Greater Horn of Africa by combining meteorological and remote sensing based indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F; Kurnik, Blaz; Barbosa, Paulo


    , and therefore to better trigger timely and appropriate actions on the field. In this study, meteorological and remote sensing based drought indicators were compared over the Greater Horn of Africa in order to better understand: (i) how they depict historical drought events ; (ii) if they could be combined...... distribution. Two remote sensing based indicators were tested: the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) derived from SPOT-VEGETATION and the Global Vegetation Index (VGI) derived form MERIS. The first index is sensitive to change in leaf water content of vegetation canopies while the second is a proxy...... of the amount and vigour of vegetation. For both indexes, anomalies were estimated using available satellite archives. Cross-correlations between remote sensing based anomalies and SPI were analysed for five land covers (forest, shrubland, grassland, sparse grassland, cropland and bare soil) over different...


    CERN Multimedia

    Wesley Smith

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The production of the trigger hardware is now basically finished, and in time for the turn-on of the LHC. The last boards produced are the Trigger Concentrator Cards for the ECAL Endcaps (TCC-EE). After the recent installation of the four EE Dees, the TCC-EE prototypes were used for their commissioning. Production boards are arriving and are being tested continuously, with the last ones expected in November. The Regional Calorimeter Trigger hardware is fully integrated after installation of the last EE cables. Pattern tests from the HCAL up to the GCT have been performed successfully. The HCAL triggers are fully operational, including the connection of the HCAL-outer and forward-HCAL (HO/HF) technical triggers to the Global Trigger. The HCAL Trigger and Readout (HTR) board firmware has been updated to permit recording of the tower “feature bit” in the data. The Global Calorimeter Trigger hardware is installed, but some firmware developments are still n...

  15. California's Drought - Stress test for the future (United States)

    Lund, J. R.


    The current California drought is in its third dry years, with this year being the third driest years in a 106-year record. This drought occurs at a time when urban, agricultural, and environmental water demands have never been greater. This drought has revealed the importance of more quantitative evaluation and methods for water assessment and management. All areas of water and environmental management are likely to become increasingly stressed, and have essentially drought-like conditions, in the future, as California's urban, agricultural, and environmental demands continue to expand and as the climate changes. In the historical past, droughts have pre-viewed stresses developing in the future and helped focus policy-makers, the public, and stakeholders on preparing for these developing future conditions. Multi-decade water management strategies are often galvinized by drought. Irrigation was galvanized by California droughts in the 1800s, reservoir systems by the 1928-32 drought, urban water conservation by the 1976-77 drought, and water markets by the 1988-92 drought. With each drought, demands for tighter accounting, rights, and management have increased. This talk reviews the prospects and challenges for increased development and use of water data and systems analysis in the service of human and environmental water demands in California's highly decentralized water management system, and the prospects if these challenges are not more successfully addressed.

  16. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong


    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  17. Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality (United States)

    Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.


    Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest

  18. A process-based typology of hydrological drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Lanen, van H.A.J.


    Hydrological drought events have very different causes and effects. Classifying these events into distinct types can be useful for both science and management. We propose a hydrological drought typology that is based on governing drought propagation processes derived from catchment-scale drought

  19. Nonparametric Integrated Agrometeorological Drought Monitoring: Model Development and Application (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Qin; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Huang, Qingzhong; Sun, Peng


    Drought is a major natural hazard that has massive impacts on the society. How to monitor drought is critical for its mitigation and early warning. This study proposed a modified version of the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, i.e., modified multivariate standardized drought index (MMSDI). This study also used nonparametric joint probability distribution analysis. Comparisons were done between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), MSDI, and MMSDI, and real-world observed drought regimes. Results indicated that MMSDI detected droughts that SPEI and/or SSMI failed to do. Also, MMSDI detected almost all droughts that were identified by SPEI and SSMI. Further, droughts detected by MMSDI were similar to real-world observed droughts in terms of drought intensity and drought-affected area. When compared to MMSDI, MSDI has the potential to overestimate drought intensity and drought-affected area across China, which should be attributed to exclusion of the evapotranspiration components from estimation of drought intensity. Therefore, MMSDI is proposed for drought monitoring that can detect agrometeorological droughts. Results of this study provide a framework for integrated drought monitoring in other regions of the world and can help to develop drought mitigation.

  20. Drought Characterisation Using Ground and Remote Sensing Data (United States)

    Hore, Sudipta Kumar; Werner, Micha; Maskey, Shreedhar


    The North-West of Bangladesh is frequently affected by drought, which may have profound impacts to different water related sectors. The characterisation and identification of drought is, however, challenging. Despite several standard drought indices being available it is important that indicators proposed in support of an effective drought management are related to the impacts drought may have. In this study we present the characterisation of drought in the districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur in North-Western Bangladesh. Drought indicators were developed using available temperature, precipitation, river discharge and groundwater level data, as well as from remotely sensed NDVI data. We compare these indicators to records of drought impacts to agriculture, fisheries and migration collected from relevant organisations, as well as through interviews with key stakeholders, key informants, and community leaders. The analysis shows that droughts occur frequently, with nine occurrences in the last 42 years, as found using common meteorological drought indicators. NDVI data corroborated these events, despite being only available from 2001. The agricultural sector was adversely impacted in all events, with impacts correlated to drought severity. Impacts to the fisheries sector were, however, reported only three times, though impacts to fisheries are less well recorded. Interestingly, the good relationship between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural impacts weakens in the last decade. This appears to be due to the intensification of irrigation using groundwater, with the declining groundwater levels found in Rajshahi district suggesting overexploitation of the resource, and the increasing importance of groundwater drought indicators. The study reveals the drought indicators that are important to the agriculture and fisheries sectors, and also tentative threshold values at which drought start to impact these sectors. Such sector relevant drought indicators, as

  1. Role of parametric decay instabilities in generating ionospheric irregularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuo, S.P.; Cheo, B.R.; Lee, M.C.


    We show that purely growing instabilities driven by the saturation spectrum of parametric decay instabilities can produce a broad spectrum of ionospheric irregularities. The threshold field Vertical BarE/sub th/Vertical Bar of the instabilities decreases with the scale lengths lambda of the ionospheric irregularities as Vertical BarE/sub th/Vertical Barproportionallambda -2 in the small-scale range ( -2 with scale lengths larger than a few kilometers. The excitation of kilometer-scale irregularities is strictly restricted by the instabilities themselves and by the spatial inhomogeneity of the medium. These results are drawn from the analyses of four-wave interaction. Ion-neutral collisions impose no net effect on the instabilities when the excited ionospheric irregularities have a field-aligned nature

  2. Identification of drought-responsive miRNAs and physiological characterization of tea plant (Camellia sinensis L.) under drought stress. (United States)

    Guo, Yuqiong; Zhao, Shanshan; Zhu, Chen; Chang, Xiaojun; Yue, Chuan; Wang, Zhong; Lin, Yuling; Lai, Zhongxiong


    Drought stress is one of the major natural challenges in the main tea-producing regions of China. The tea plant (Camellia sinensis) is a traditional beverage plant whose growth status directly affects tea quality. Recent studies have revealed that microRNAs (miRNAs) play key functions in plant growth and development. Although some miRNAs have been identified in C. sinensis, little is known about their roles in the drought stress response of tea plants. Physiological characterization of Camellia sinensis 'Tieguanyin' under drought stress showed that the malondialdehyde concentration and electrical conductivity of leaves of drought-stressed plants increased when the chlorophyll concentration decreased under severe drought stress. We sequenced four small-RNA (sRNA) libraries constructed from leaves of plants subjected to four different treatments, normal water supply (CK); mild drought stress (T1); moderate drought stress (T2) and severe drought stress (T3). A total of 299 known mature miRNA sequences and 46 novel miRNAs were identified. Gene Ontology enrichment analysis revealed that most of the differentially expressed-miRNA target genes were related to regulation of transcription. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis revealed that the most highly enriched pathways under drought stress were D-alanine metabolism, sulfur metabolism, and mineral absorption pathways. Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to validate the expression patterns of 21 miRNAs (2 up-regulated and 19 down-regulated under drought stress). The observed co-regulation of the miR166 family and their targets ATHB-14-like and ATHB-15-like indicate the presence of negative feedback regulation in miRNA pathways. Analyses of drought-responsive miRNAs in tea plants showed that most of differentially expressed-miRNA target genes were related to regulation of transcription. The results of study revealed that the expressions of phase-specific miRNAs vary with morphological, physiological, and


    CERN Multimedia

    by Wesley Smith


    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The overall status of the L1 trigger has been excellent and the running efficiency has been high during physics fills. The timing is good to about 1%. The fine-tuning of the time synchronization of muon triggers is ongoing and will be completed after more than 10 nb-1 of data have been recorded. The CSC trigger primitive and RPC trigger timing have been refined. A new configuration for the CSC Track Finder featured modified beam halo cuts and improved ghost cancellation logic. More direct control was provided for the DT opto-receivers. New RPC Cosmic Trigger (RBC/TTU) trigger algorithms were enabled for collision runs. There is further work planned during the next technical stop to investigate a few of the links from the ECAL to the Regional Calorimeter Trigger (RCT). New firmware and a new configuration to handle trigger rate spikes in the ECAL barrel are also being tested. A board newly developed by the tracker group (ReTRI) has been installed and activated to block re...

  4. Cyclic electron flow, NPQ and photorespiration are crucial for the establishment of young plants of Ricinus communis and Jatropha curcas exposed to drought. (United States)

    Lima Neto, M C; Cerqueira, J V A; da Cunha, J R; Ribeiro, R V; Silveira, J A G


    Although plant physiological responses to drought have been widely studied, the interaction between photoprotection, photorespiration and antioxidant metabolism in water-stressed plants is scarcely addressed. This study aimed to evaluate the physiological adjustments preserving photosynthesis and growth in two plant species with different tolerance to drought: Jatropha curcas and Ricinus communis. We measured stress indicators, gas exchange, photochemistry of PSII and PSI, antioxidant enzymes, cyclic electron flow and photorespiration. Physiological stress indicators associated with reduction in growth confirmed R. communis as sensitive and J. curcas as tolerant to drought. Drought induced loss of photosynthesis in R. communis, whereas J. curcas maintained higher leaf gas exchange and photochemistry under drought. In addition, J. curcas showed higher dissipation of excess energy and presented higher cyclic electron flow when exposed to drought. Although none of these mechanisms have been triggered in R. communis, this species showed increases in photorespiration. R. communis displayed loss of Rubisco content while the Rubisco relative abundance did not change in J. curcas under drought. Accordingly, the in vivo maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate (V cmax ) and the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate driving RuBP regeneration (J max ) were less affected in J. curcas. Both species displayed an efficient antioxidant mechanism by increasing activities of ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and superoxide dismutase (SOD). Overall, we suggest that the modulation of different photoprotective mechanisms is crucial to mitigate the effects caused by excess energy, maintaining photosynthetic apparatus efficiency and promoting the establishment of young plants of these two species under drought. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  5. Mountains in the third millennium - a decade of droughts and water scarcity? (United States)

    de Jong, C.; Shaban, A.; Belete, T.


    , desiccation of streams and drinking water conflicts. However, Environmental Impact Assessments still lack consideration of climate change. Data availability and measurements are so sparse in these environments that proper interdisciplinary modelling has still to be developed and most predictions are based on conceptual model approaches. Nevertheless, there is increasing necessity to adapt swiftly and rationally to droughts and increased climate irregularities in mountains. Some countries and regions have already adopted adaptation plans and strategies at the national level but they rarely consider mountain regions. Others have left it up to spontaneous adaptation at the local level. Even at the European level, there are few activities and policies yet dealing with adaptation to climate change under consideration of a combination of droughts, water scarcity or energy issues apart from the EU Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation planned for 2013. Under such conditions, it is essential to carry out scientific observations and modelling as well as develop innovative indicators, for example via climate change witnesses identified amongst the local stakeholders as well as local and regional think tanks.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Marković


    Full Text Available Drought occurs due to lack of water in the soil, as well as due to disturbances in the circulation of the atmosphere. The duration of the drought may be different, and droughts not only the lack of rainfall, but also erratic distribution of rainfall throughout the year. The intensity of droughts amplified high temperatures, low relative humidity and dry, hot winds. The drought in many areas of common occurrence that repeats without a discernible regularity. Although it can be found in almost all parts of the world, its characteristics vary from region to region. Defining drought is therefore difficult and depends on regional differences and needs, but also from the perspective from which to observe this phenomenon. In the broadest sense, the drought is due to the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, leading to water shortages for some activities, group activities or an entire sector of the environment. Drought can not be viewed solely as a physical phenomenon. The occurrence of drought, because of the weather, a lot of influences and reflects on the plants and agricultural production.

  7. Amazon forest response to repeated droughts (United States)

    Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Gloor, E.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Alarcón, A.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Baker, T. R.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Castro, W.; Chama, V.; Chave, J.; Domingues, T. F.; Fauset, S.; Groot, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Laurance, S.; Laurance, W. F.; Lewis, S. L.; Licona, J. C.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza Bautista, C.; Neill, D. A.; Oliveira, E. A.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Rudas, A.; Saiz, G.; Salomão, R. P.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; ter Steege, H.; Stropp, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.


    The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: -0.43 Mg ha-1, confidence interval (CI): -1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (-0.07 Pg C yr-1 CI:-0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

  8. Assessing and mapping drought hazard in Africa and South-Central America with a Meteorological Drought Severity Index (United States)

    Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen


    Drought is a recurring extreme climate event characterized by a temporary deficit of precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow, or any combination of the three taking place at the same time. The immediate consequences of short-term (i.e. a few weeks duration) droughts are, for example, a fall in crop production, poor pasture growth and a decline in fodder supplies from crop residues, whereas prolonged water shortages (e.g. of several months or years duration) may, amongst others, lead to a reduction in hydro-electrical power production and an increase of forest fires. As a result, comprehensive drought risk management is nowadays critical for many regions in the world. Examples are many African and South-and Central American countries that strongly depend on rain-fed agriculture for economic development with hydroelectricity and biomass as main sources of energy. Drought risk is the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between drought hazard, i.e. the physical nature of droughts, and the degree to which a population or activity is vulnerable to its effects. As vulnerability to drought is increasing globally and certain tasks, such as distributive policies (e.g. relief aid, regulatory exemptions, or preparedness investments), require information on drought severity that is comparable across different climatic regions, greater attention has recently been directed to the development of methods for a standardized quantification of drought hazard. In this study we, therefore, concentrate on a methodology for assessing the severity of historical droughts and on mapping the frequency of their occurrence. To achieve these goals, we use a new Meteorological Drought Severity Index (MDSI). The motivation is twofold: 1) the observation that primitive indices of drought severity directly measure local precipitation shortages and cannot be compared geographically; and that 2) standardized indices of drought do not take into account

  9. Politics and drought planning: Friends or foes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowell, B.D.; Blomquist, W.


    Nothing frustrates the average drought planner more than politics. Yet, droughts cannot be prepared for realistically without reliable political partners, smoothly cooperating government agencies, and strong public support. This paper suggests six rules for linking technical drought planning processes to the political processes and institutions that can implement drought plans

  10. Genetic dissection of drought tolerance in potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anithakumari, A.M.


    Drought is the most important cause of crop and yield loss around the world. Breeding for

    drought tolerance is not straightforward, as drought is a complex trait. A better understanding

    of the expression of drought traits, the genes underlying the traits and the way these


    CERN Multimedia

    Roberta Arcidiacono


    Trigger Studies Group (TSG) The Trigger Studies Group has just concluded its third 2013 workshop, where all POGs presented the improvements to the physics object reconstruction, and all PAGs have shown their plans for Trigger development aimed at the 2015 High Level Trigger (HLT) menu. The Strategy for Trigger Evolution And Monitoring (STEAM) group is responsible for Trigger menu development, path timing, Trigger performance studies coordination, HLT offline DQM as well as HLT release, menu and conditions validation – this last task in collaboration with PdmV (Physics Data and Monte Carlo Validation group). In the last months the group has delivered several HLT rate estimates and comparisons, using the available data and Monte Carlo samples. The studies were presented at the Trigger workshops in September and December, and STEAM has contacted POGs and PAGs to understand the origin of the discrepancies observed between 8 TeV data and Monte Carlo simulations. The most recent results show what the...

  12. Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis induces strigolactone biosynthesis under drought and improves drought tolerance in lettuce and tomato. (United States)

    Ruiz-Lozano, Juan Manuel; Aroca, Ricardo; Zamarreño, Ángel María; Molina, Sonia; Andreo-Jiménez, Beatriz; Porcel, Rosa; García-Mina, José María; Ruyter-Spira, Carolien; López-Ráez, Juan Antonio


    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis alleviates drought stress in plants. However, the intimate mechanisms involved, as well as its effect on the production of signalling molecules associated with the host plant-AM fungus interaction remains largely unknown. In the present work, the effects of drought on lettuce and tomato plant performance and hormone levels were investigated in non-AM and AM plants. Three different water regimes were applied, and their effects were analysed over time. AM plants showed an improved growth rate and efficiency of photosystem II than non-AM plants under drought from very early stages of plant colonization. The levels of the phytohormone abscisic acid, as well as the expression of the corresponding marker genes, were influenced by drought stress in non-AM and AM plants. The levels of strigolactones and the expression of corresponding marker genes were affected by both AM symbiosis and drought. The results suggest that AM symbiosis alleviates drought stress by altering the hormonal profiles and affecting plant physiology in the host plant. In addition, a correlation between AM root colonization, strigolactone levels and drought severity is shown, suggesting that under these unfavourable conditions, plants might increase strigolactone production in order to promote symbiosis establishment to cope with the stress. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. The Temporospatial Variations and Propagation of Drought in China (United States)

    Ma, F.; Ye, A.; Luo, L.; Duan, Q.


    Drought monitoring and forecasting system is a crucial component of drought preparedness. However, under the changing environment, the hydro-climate presents non-stationarity due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, which brings great challenges for drought forecasts. This study investigates the temporospatial characteristics and propagation of different types of droughts from 1961 to 2016 in China. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) are used to characterize meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts, respectively. The soil moisture and streamflow datasets are obtained from simulations by the distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrological model, which has been calibrated and validated in China. The spatial patterns of drought frequency and severity, and temporal characteristics of drought coverage, drought duration and drought intensity are investigated. The cross wavelet analysis is used to examine the correlations between meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. The study also explores how different types of droughts are linked and how one drought morphs into another through time. The findings on temporospatial variations and propagation of drought will provide better understanding on drought development to be helpful for improvement of drought monitoring and forecasting.

  14. Decadal Drought and Wetness Reconstructed for Subtropical North America in the Mexican Drought Atlas (United States)

    Burnette, D. J.; Stahle, D. W.; Cook, E. R.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Griffin, D.; Cook, B.


    A new drought atlas has been developed for subtropical North America, including the entire Republic of Mexico. This Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) is based on 251 tree-ring chronologies, including 82 from Mexico and another 169 from the southern U.S. and western Guatemala. Point-by-point principal components regression was used to reconstruct the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June-August. Calibration and verification statistics were improved over what was previously possible with the North American Drought Atlas, which was based on fewer chronologies only in Mexico. The MXDA will be served on the web with analytical tools for composite, correlation, and congruence analyses. The new PDSI reconstructions provide a more detailed estimation of decadal moisture regimes over the past 2000 years, but are most robust after 1400 AD, when several chronologies are available across Mexico. Droughts previously identified in a subset of chronologies are confirmed and their spatial impact quantified in the new reconstructions. This includes the intense drought of the mid-15th Century described in Aztec legend, the 16th Century megadrought, and "El Año del Hambre", one of the worst famines in Mexican history. We also use the best replicated portion of the MXDA in the 18th and 19th Centuries to reconstruct moisture anomalies during key time periods of Mexican turmoil (e.g., the Mexican War of Independence).

  15. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing


    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

  16. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Shifley


    Full Text Available At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and basal area of standing dead oak trees, respectively. These values are three to five times higher than for white oak group and non-oak species. Oak decline and associated escalating mortality have occurred primarily in red oak species while the white oak group has maintained a relatively stable mortality rate that is comparable to non-oak species. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that mortality in the red oak group was significantly correlated with the growing season Palmer drought severity index (PDSI and usually lagged two to three years following single drought events. Moreover, based on the past 17 years PDSI data, it appears that the cumulative impacts of drought may last up to 10 years. The Ozark Highlands experienced a severe drought extending from 1998 to 2000 and another milder drought from 2005 to 2006. These drought events triggered the escalation of mortality starting around year 2000. Spatially, high red oak mortality sites (hot spots with proportional basal area mortality > 0.12 initially occurred in the central Ozarks and spread gradually over most of the Ozark Highlands as regional droughts continued. In contrast, sites with elevated white oak and non-oak mortality occurred sporadically, mainly in the southern portion (Arkansas of the Ozark Highlands. During the most recent inventory period (2006–2010, over 60%, 7% and 5% of red oak, white oak and non-oak groups, respectively, had relative mortality rates of > 12%.

  17. Spatial patterns of drought persistence in East China (United States)

    Meng, L.; Ford, T.


    East China has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent decades. Understanding the characteristics of droughts and their persistence will provide operational guidelines for water resource management and agricultural production. This study uses a logistic regression model to measure the probability of drought occurrence in the current season given the previous season's Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as well as drought persistence. Results reveal large spatial and seasonal variations in the relationship between the previous season's SPI and the drought occurrence probability in a given season. The drought persistence averaged over the entire study area for all the four seasons is approximately 34% with large variations from season to season and from region to region. The East and Northeast regions have the largest summer drought persistence ( 40%) and lowest fall drought persistence ( 28%). The spatial pattern in winter and spring drought persistence is dissimilar with stronger winter and weaker spring drought persistence in the Southwest and Northeast relative to other regions. Logistic regression analysis indicates a stronger negative relationship in summer-to-fall (or between fall drought occurrence and summer SPI) than other inter-season relationships. This study demonstrates that the impact of previous season SPI and SOI on current season drought varies substantially from region to region and from season to season. This study also shows stronger drought persistence in summer than in other seasons. In other words, the probability of fall drought occurrence is closely related to summer moisture conditions in the East China.

  18. European Drought and Water Scarcity Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Özerol, Gül; Stein, Ulf; Troeltzsch, Jenny; Landgrebe, Ruta; Szendrenyi, Anna; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne


    Over the last decade, Europe’s drought management and policy has been characterized by a predominantly crisis-oriented approach. However, the widening gap between the impacts of drought episodes and the ability to prepare, manage and mitigate such droughts has motivated the European Union (EU) to

  19. Use of Drought Index and Crop Modelling for Drought Impacts Analysis on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield Loss in Bandung District (United States)

    Kurniasih, E.; Impron; Perdinan


    Drought impacts on crop yield loss depend on drought magnitude and duration and on plant genotype at every plant growth stages when droughts occur. This research aims to assess the difference calculation results of 2 drought index methods and to study the maize yield loss variability impacted by drought magnitude and duration during maize growth stages in Bandung district, province of West Java, Indonesia. Droughts were quantified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1- to 3-month lags for the January1986-December 2015 period data. Maize yield responses to droughts were simulated by AquaCrop for the January 1986-May 2016 period of growing season. The analysis showed that the SPI and SPEI methods provided similar results in quantifying drought event. Droughts during maize reproductive stages caused the highest maize yield loss.

  20. New Opportunities for Remote Sensing Ionospheric Irregularities by Fitting Scintillation Spectra (United States)

    Carrano, C. S.; Rino, C. L.; Groves, K. M.


    In a recent paper, we presented a phase screen theory for the spectrum of intensity scintillations when the refractive index irregularities follow a two-component power law [Carrano and Rino, DOI: 10.1002/2015RS005903]. More recently we have investigated the inverse problem, whereby phase screen parameters are inferred from scintillation time series. This is accomplished by fitting the spectrum of intensity fluctuations with a parametrized theoretical model using Maximum Likelihood (ML) methods. The Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo technique provides a-posteriori errors and confidence intervals. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) provides justification for the use of one- or two-component irregularity models. We refer to this fitting as Irregularity Parameter Estimation (IPE) since it provides a statistical description of the irregularities from the scintillations they produce. In this talk, we explore some new opportunities for remote sensing ionospheric irregularities afforded by IPE. Statistical characterization of irregularities and the plasma bubbles in which they are embedded provides insight into the development of the underlying instability. In a companion paper by Rino et al., IPE is used to interpret scintillation due to simulated EPB structure. IPE can be used to reconcile multi-frequency scintillation observations and to construct high fidelity scintillation simulation tools. In space-to-ground propagation scenarios, for which an estimate of the distance to the scattering region is available a-priori, IPE enables retrieval of zonal irregularity drift. In radio occultation scenarios, the distance to the irregularities is generally unknown but IPE enables retrieval of Fresnel frequency. A geometric model for the effective scan velocity maps Fresnel frequency to Fresnel scale, yielding the distance to the irregularities. We demonstrate this approach by geolocating irregularities observed by the CORISS instrument onboard the C/NOFS satellite.

  1. State reconstruction and irregular wavefunctions for the hydrogen atom (United States)

    Krähmer, D. S.; Leonhardt, U.


    Inspired by a recently proposed procedure by Leonhardt and Raymer for wavepacket reconstruction, we calculate the irregular wavefunctions for the bound states of the Coulomb potential. We select the irregular solutions which have the simplest semiclassical limit.


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith


    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The Level-1 Trigger hardware has performed well during both the recent proton-proton and heavy ion running. Efforts were made to improve the visibility and handling of alarms and warnings. The tracker ReTRI boards that prevent fixed frequencies of Level-1 Triggers are now configured through the Trigger Supervisor. The Global Calorimeter Trigger (GCT) team has introduced a buffer cleanup procedure at stops and a reset of the QPLL during configuring to ensure recalibration in case of a switch from the LHC clock to the local clock. A device to test the cables between the Regional Calorimeter Trigger and the GCT has been manufactured. A wrong charge bit was fixed in the CSC Trigger. The ECAL group is improving crystal masking and spike suppression in the trigger primitives. New firmware for the Drift Tube Track Finder (DTTF) sorters was developed to improve fake track tagging and sorting. Zero suppression was implemented in the DT Sector Collector readout. The track finder b...


    CERN Multimedia

    Wesley Smith

    Trigger Hardware The status of the trigger components was presented during the September CMS Week and Annual Review and at the monthly trigger meetings in October and November. Procedures for cold and warm starts (e.g. refreshing of trigger parameters stored in registers) of the trigger subsystems have been studied. Reviews of parts of the Global Calorimeter Trigger (GCT) and the Global Trigger (GT) have taken place in October and November. The CERN group summarized the status of the Trigger Timing and Control (TTC) system. All TTC crates and boards are installed in the underground counting room, USC55. The central clock system will be upgraded in December (after the Global Run at the end of November GREN) to the new RF2TTC LHC machine interface timing module. Migration of subsystem's TTC PCs to SLC4/ XDAQ 3.12 is being prepared. Work is on going to unify the access to Local Timing Control (LTC) and TTC CMS interface module (TTCci) via SOAP (Simple Object Access Protocol, a lightweight XML-based messaging ...

  4. On a new process for cusp irregularity production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Carlson


    Full Text Available Two plasma instability mechanisms were thought until 2007 to dominate the formation of plasma irregularities in the F region high latitude and polar ionosphere; the gradient-drift driven instability, and the velocity-shear driven instability. The former mechanism was accepted as accounting for plasma structuring in polar cap patches, the latter for plasma structuring in polar cap sun aligned arcs. Recent work has established the need to replace this view of the past two decades with a new patch plasma structuring process (not a new mechanism, whereby shear-driven instabilities first rapidly structure the entering plasma, after which gradient drift instabilities build on these large "seed" irregularities. Correct modeling of cusp and early polar cap patch structuring will not be accomplished without allowing for this compound process. This compound process explains several previously unexplained characteristics of cusp and early polar cap patch irregularities. Here we introduce additional data, coincident in time and space, to extend that work to smaller irregularity scale sizes and relate it to the structured cusp current system.

  5. Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc F P


    Over the past 50 years, human water use has more than doubled and affected streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought (the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow). Here, we quantify over the period 1960–2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought worldwide. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow over Europe, North America and Asia, and subsequently intensified the magnitude of hydrological droughts by 10–500%, occurring during nation- and continent-wide drought events. Also, human water consumption alone increased global drought frequency by 27 (±6)%. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia (35 ± 7%), but also substantial over North America (25 ± 6%) and Europe (20 ± 5%). Importantly, the severe drought conditions are driven primarily by human water consumption over many parts of these regions. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over the western and central US, southern Europe and Asia, whereas the impact of industrial and households’ consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over the eastern US and western and central Europe. Our findings reveal that human water consumption is one of the more important mechanisms intensifying hydrological drought, and is likely to remain as a major factor affecting drought intensity and frequency in the coming decades. (letter)

  6. Ionospheric Irregularities at Mars Probed by MARSIS Topside Sounding (United States)

    Harada, Y.; Gurnett, D. A.; Kopf, A. J.; Halekas, J. S.; Ruhunusiri, S.


    The upper ionosphere of Mars contains a variety of perturbations driven by solar wind forcing from above and upward propagating atmospheric waves from below. Here we explore the global distribution and variability of ionospheric irregularities around the exobase at Mars by analyzing topside sounding data from the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding (MARSIS) instrument on board Mars Express. As irregular structure gives rise to off-vertical echoes with excess propagation time, the diffuseness of ionospheric echo traces can be used as a diagnostic tool for perturbed reflection surfaces. The observed properties of diffuse echoes above unmagnetized regions suggest that ionospheric irregularities with horizontal wavelengths of tens to hundreds of kilometers are particularly enhanced in the winter hemisphere and at high solar zenith angles. Given the known inverse dependence of neutral gravity wave amplitudes on the background atmospheric temperature, the ionospheric irregularities probed by MARSIS are most likely associated with plasma perturbations driven by atmospheric gravity waves. Though extreme events with unusually diffuse echoes are more frequently observed for high solar wind dynamic pressures during some time intervals, the vast majority of the diffuse echo events are unaffected by varying solar wind conditions, implying limited influence of solar wind forcing on the generation of ionospheric irregularities. Combination of remote and in situ measurements of ionospheric irregularities would offer the opportunity for a better understanding of the ionospheric dynamics at Mars.

  7. Drought priming effects on alleviating later damages of heat and drought stress in different wheat cultivars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mendanha, Thayna; Hyldgaard, Benita; Ottosen, Carl-Otto

    The ongoing change is climate; in particular the increase of drought and heat waves episodes are a major challenge in the prospect of food safety. Under many field conditions, plants are usually exposed to mild intermittent stress episodes rather than a terminal stress event. Previous, but limited...... studies suggest that plants subjected to early stress (primed) can be more resistant to future stress exposure than those not stressed during seedling stage. In our experiment we aimed to test if repeated mild drought stresses could improve heat and drought tolerance during anthesis heat and drought...... stresses in wheat cultivars. Two wheat cultivars, Gladius and Paragon, were grown in a fully controlled gravimetric platform and subjected to either no stress (control) or two (P) drought cycles during seedling stage, at three and five complete developed leaves. Each cycle consisted of withholding water...

  8. Bottomside sinusoidal irregularities in the equatorial F region (United States)

    Valladares, C. E.; Hanson, W. B.; Mcclure, J. P.; Cragin, B. L.


    By using the Ogo 6 satellite, McClure and Hanson (1973) have discovered sinusoidal irregularities in the equatorial F region ion number density. In the present investigation, a description is provided of the properties of a distinct category of sinusoidal irregularities found in equatorial data from the AE-C and AE-E satellites. The observed scale sizes vary from about 300 m to 3 km in the direction perpendicular to B, overlapping with and extending the range observed by using Ogo 6. Attention is given to low and high resolution data, a comparison with Huancayo ionograms, the confinement of 'bottomside sinusoidal' (BSS) irregularities essentially to the bottomside of the F layer, spectral characteristics, and BSS, scintillation, and ionosonde observations.

  9. The Impact of Irregular Warfare on the US Army

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McDonald, III, Roger L


    Although the U.S. Army has yet to clearly define irregular warfare, it is imperative that the Army take near-term action to enhance the ability of Soldiers and units to operate effectively in an irregular warfare environment...

  10. Development of an Experimental African Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting System: A First Step towards a Global Drought Information System (United States)

    Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.


    Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are a significant source of social and economic damage. Internationally, organizations such as UNESCO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have recognized the need for drought monitoring, especially for the developing world where drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Having the capacity to monitor droughts in real-time, and to provide drought forecasts with sufficient warning will help developing countries and international programs move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. While observation-based assessments, such as those produced by the US Drought Monitor, are effective for monitoring in countries with extensive observation networks (of precipitation in particular), their utility is lessened in areas (e.g., Africa) where observing networks are sparse. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the real-time data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for the construction of a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. In this presentation we discuss the development of our multi-lingual experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see At the request of UNESCO, the ADM system has been installed at AGRHYMET, a regional climate and agricultural center in Niamey, Niger and at the ICPAC climate center in Nairobi, Kenya. The ADM system leverages off our U.S. drought monitoring and forecasting system ( that uses the NLDAS data to force the VIC land surface model (LSM) at 1/8th degree spatial resolution for the estimation of our soil moisture drought index (Sheffield et al., 2004). For the seasonal forecast of drought, CFSv2 climate

  11. Large-scale drought-induced vegetation die-off: expanding the ecohydrological emphasis more explicitly on atmospheric demand. (Invited) (United States)

    Breshears, D. D.; Adams, H. D.; Eamus, D.; McDowell, N. G.; Law, D. J.; Will, R. E.; Williams, P.; Zou, C.


    Ecohydrology focuses on the interactions of water availability, ecosystem productivity, and biogeochemical cycles via ecological-hydrological connections. These connections can be particularly pronounced and socially relevant when there are large-scale rapid changes in vegetation. One such key change, vegetation mortality, can be triggered by drought and is projected to become more frequent and/or extensive in the future under changing climate. Recent research on drought-induced vegetation die-off has focused primarily on direct drought effects, such as soil moisture deficit, and, to a much lesser degree, the potential for warmer temperatures to exacerbate stress and accelerate mortality. However, temperature is tightly interrelated with atmospheric demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) but the latter has rarely been considered explicitly relative to die-off events. Here we highlight the importance of VPD in addition to soil moisture deficit and warmer temperature as an important driver of future die-off. Recent examples highlighting the importance of VPD include mortality patterns corresponding to VPD drivers, a strong dependence of forest growth on VPD, patterns of observed mortality along an environmental gradient, an experimentally-determined climate envelope for mortality, and a suite of modeling simulations segregating the drought effects of VPD from those of temperature. The vast bulk of evidence suggests that atmospheric demand needs to be considered in addition to temperature and soil moisture deficit in predicting risk of future vegetation die-off and associated ecohydrological transformations.

  12. Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region (United States)

    Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.


    The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and

  13. Diversity of seedling responses to drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slot, M.; Poorter, L.


    Drought is an important seedling mortality agent in dry and moist tropical forests, and more severe and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. The effect of drought on leaf gas exchange and seedling survival was tested in a dry-down experiment with four tree species from dry and moist

  14. Evaluating Yield and Drought Stress Indices under End Season Drought Stress in Promising Genotypes of Barley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tajalli


    Full Text Available To study the effects of end season drought stress on yield, yield components and drought stress indices in barley, a split plot experiment arranged in randomized complete block design with three replications was conducted at the Agricultural Research Center of Birjand in 2008-2009 crop years. Drought stress, in 2 levels, consists of control (complete irrigation and stopping irrigation at the 50% of heading stage, and 20 promising genotypes of barley were the treatments of the experiment. Results revealed that stopping irrigation lead to declining of 14.64 and 8.12 percent of seed and forage yields against control condition, respectively. Using stress susceptibility index (SSI indicated that genotypes 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 and 15; using STI and GMP indices, genotypes 5, 8, 18 and 20 using MP, genotypes 8, 18 and 20, and TOL, genotypes 2, 3, 7, 9, and 10, were the most drought tolerant genotypes. Correlation between seed yield and stress evaluation indices showed that MP, GMP and STI are the best indices to be used in selection and introducing drought tolerant genotypes of barley. Considering all indices, and given that the best genotypes are those with high yield under normal condition and minimum yield reduction under drought stress, No. 18 and 20 could be introduced as the most tolerant barley genotypes to drought.

  15. Influence of initial stress, irregularity and heterogeneity on Love-type wave propagation in double pre-stressed irregular layers lying over a pre-stressed half-space (United States)

    Singh, Abhishek Kumar; Das, Amrita; Parween, Zeenat; Chattopadhyay, Amares


    The present paper deals with the propagation of Love-type wave in an initially stressed irregular vertically heterogeneous layer lying over an initially stressed isotropic layer and an initially stressed isotropic half-space. Two different types of irregularities, viz., rectangular and parabolic, are considered at the interface of uppermost initially stressed heterogeneous layer and intermediate initially stressed isotropic layer. Dispersion equations are obtained in closed form for both cases of irregularities, distinctly. The effect of size and shape of irregularity, horizontal compressive initial stress, horizontal tensile initial stress, heterogeneity of the uppermost layer and width ratio of the layers on phase velocity of Love-type wave are the major highlights of the study. Comparative study has been made to identify the effects of different shapes of irregularity, presence of heterogeneity and initial stresses. Numerical computations have been carried out and depicted by means of graphs for the present study.

  16. Recent advances in the dissection of drought-stress regulatory networks and strategies for development of drought-tolerant transgenic rice plants. (United States)

    Todaka, Daisuke; Shinozaki, Kazuo; Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, Kazuko


    Advances have been made in the development of drought-tolerant transgenic plants, including cereals. Rice, one of the most important cereals, is considered to be a critical target for improving drought tolerance, as present-day rice cultivation requires large quantities of water and as drought-tolerant rice plants should be able to grow in small amounts of water. Numerous transgenic rice plants showing enhanced drought tolerance have been developed to date. Such genetically engineered plants have generally been developed using genes encoding proteins that control drought regulatory networks. These proteins include transcription factors, protein kinases, receptor-like kinases, enzymes related to osmoprotectant or plant hormone synthesis, and other regulatory or functional proteins. Of the drought-tolerant transgenic rice plants described in this review, approximately one-third show decreased plant height under non-stressed conditions or in response to abscisic acid treatment. In cereal crops, plant height is a very important agronomic trait directly affecting yield, although the improvement of lodging resistance should also be taken into consideration. Understanding the regulatory mechanisms of plant growth reduction under drought stress conditions holds promise for developing transgenic plants that produce high yields under drought stress conditions. Plant growth rates are reduced more rapidly than photosynthetic activity under drought conditions, implying that plants actively reduce growth in response to drought stress. In this review, we summarize studies on molecular regulatory networks involved in response to drought stress. In a separate section, we highlight progress in the development of transgenic drought-tolerant rice plants, with special attention paid to field trial investigations.

  17. Coping With Droughts (United States)

    Zaporozec, Alexander

    This book is a collection of selected papers from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Droughts entitled “Drought Impact Control Technology,” held at the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering in Lisbon, Portugal, in June 1980. The editors of the book have chosen a nontraditional but successful approach to presenting the papers. Instead of including a verbatim proceedings of the institute, they assembled 21 papers presented by 14 of the institute's lecturers, reshaped and synthesized them, and supplemented them by five new papers that cover obvious gaps in topics. The result is enlightening reading and a more or less complete presentation of the subject. The edited material in the book was arranged around three central themes related to efforts needed to cope with or manage the droughts. In the process, the identity of individual contributors has been preserved.

  18. Drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania (United States)

    Zimmerman, Tammy M.; Risser, Dennis W.


    This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey, to determine drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania. Because all or parts of southeastern Pennsylvania have been in drought-warning or drought-emergency status during 6 of the past 10 years from 1994 through 2004, this information should aid well owners, drillers, and water-resource managers in guiding appropriate well construction and sustainable use of Pennsylvania's water resources. 'Drought-sensitive' aquifer settings are defined for this study as areas unable to supply adequate quantities of water to wells during drought. Using information from previous investigations and a knowledge of the hydrogeology and topography of the study area, drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania were hypothesized as being associated with two factors - a water-table decline (WTD) index and topographic setting. The WTD index is an estimate of the theoretical water-table decline at the ground-water divide for a hypothetical aquifer with idealized geometry. The index shows the magnitude of ground-water decline after cessation of recharge is a function of (1) distance from stream to divide, (2) ground-water recharge rate, (3) transmissivity, (4) specific yield, and (5) duration of the drought. WTD indices were developed for 39 aquifers that were subsequently grouped into categories of high, moderate, and low WTD index. Drought-sensitive settings determined from the hypothesized factors were compared to locations of wells known to have been affected (gone dry, replaced, or deepened) during recent droughts. Information collected from well owners, drillers, and public agencies identified 2,016 wells affected by drought during 1998-2002. Most of the available data on the location of drought-affected wells in the study area were

  19. Ecological and meteorological drought monitoring in East Asia (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.; Chae, Y.


    This study aims to how well the ecological drought index can capture the drought status in the East Asia. We estimated the drought severe index (DSI), which uses the evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggested by Mu et al. (2013) to define the ecological drought. In addition, the meteorological drought index, which is standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are estimated and compared to the DSI. The satellite data by moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) are used to analyze the DSI and the monthly precipitation and temperature data in the climate research unit (CRU) are applied to estimate the SPEI for 2000-2013 in the East Asia. We conducted the statistical analyses to investigate the drought characteristics of the ecological and meteorological drought indices (i.e. the DSI and SPEI, respectively) and then compared those characteristics drought indices depending on the drought status. We found the DSI did not well captured the drought status when the categories originally suggested by Mu et al. (2013) are applied to divide the drought status in the study area. Consequently, the modified categories for the DSI in this study is suggested and then applied to define the drought status. The modified categories in this study show the great improvement to capture the drought status in the East Asia even though the results cannot be acquired around Taklamakan desert due to the lack of the satellite data. These results illustrate the ecological drought index, such as the DSI, can be applied for the monitoring of the drought in the East Asia and then can give the detailed information of drought status because the satellite data have the relatively high spatial resolutions compared to the observations such as the CRU data. Reference Mu Q, Zhao M, Kimball JS, McDowell NG, Running SW (2013) A remotely sensed global

  20. Drought, Climate Change and the Canadian Prairies (United States)

    Stewart, R. E.


    The occurrence of drought is a ubiquitous feature of the global water cycle. Such an extreme does not necessarily lead to an overall change in the magnitude of the global water cycle but it of course affects the regional cycling of water. Droughts are recurring aspects of weather and climate extremes as are floods and tornadoes, but they differ substantially since they have long durations and lack easily identified onsets and terminations. Drought is a relatively common feature of the North American and Canadian climate system and all regions of the continent are affected from time-to-time. However, it tends to be most common and severe over the central regions of the continent. The Canadian Prairies are therefore prone to drought. Droughts in the Canadian Prairies are distinctive in North America. The large scale atmospheric circulations are influenced by blocking from intense orography to the west and long distances from all warm ocean-derived atmospheric water sources; growing season precipitation is generated by a highly complex combination of frontal and convective systems; seasonality is severe and characterized by a relatively long snow-covered and short growing seasons; local surface runoff is primarily produced by snowmelt water; there is substantial water storage potential in the poorly drained, post-glacial topography; and aquifers are overlain by impermeable glacial till, but there are also important permeable aquifers. One example of Prairie drought is the recent one that began in 1999 with cessation of its atmospheric component in 2004/2005 and many of its hydrological components in 2005. This event produced the worst drought for at least a hundred years in parts of the Canadian Prairies. Even in the dust bowl of the 1930s, no single year over the central Prairies were drier than in 2001. The drought affected agriculture, recreation, tourism, health, hydro-electricity, and forestry in the Prairies. Gross Domestic Product fell some 5.8 billion and

  1. Description of future drought indices in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunwoo Kang


    Full Text Available This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI, the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.

  2. Impacts of simulated drought stress and artificial damage on concentrations of flavonoids in Jatropha curcas (L.), a biofuel shrub. (United States)

    Lama, Ang Dawa; Kim, Jorma; Martiskainen, Olli; Klemola, Tero; Salminen, Juha-Pekka; Tyystjärvi, Esa; Niemelä, Pekka; Vuorisalo, Timo


    We studied the possible roles of flavonoids in the antioxidant and antiherbivore chemistry in Jatropha curcas (L.), a Latin American shrub that holds great potential as a source of biofuel. Changes in flavonoid concentrations in the leaves of J. curcas seedlings exposed to artificial damage and to different rainfall patterns were assessed by applying a 3 2 -factorial experiment in a greenhouse. The concentrations of different flavonoids in the leaves of seedlings were significantly affected by interaction effects of artificial damage, drought stress and age of the seedling. The highest flavonoid concentrations were obtained in seedlings imposed to the highest percentage of artificial damage (50 %) and grown under extreme drought stress (200 mm year -1 ). In this treatment combination, flavonoid concentrations were three-fold as compared to seedlings exposed to the same level of artificial damage but grown in 1900 mm year -1 rainfall application. Without artificial damage, the concentration of flavonoids in the seedlings grown in 200 mm year -1 rainfall application was still two-fold compared to seedlings grown in higher (>800 mm year -1 ) rainfall applications. Thus, the observed flavonoid concentration patterns in the leaves of J. curcas seedlings were primarily triggered by drought stress and light rather than by artificial damage, suggesting that drought causes oxidative stress in J. curcas.

  3. Drained coastal peatlands: A potential nitrogen source to marine ecosystems under prolonged drought and heavy storm events-A microcosm experiment. (United States)

    Wang, Hongjun; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi; Flanagan, Neal


    Over the past several decades there has been a massive increase in coastal eutrophication, which is often caused by increased runoff input of nitrogen from landscape alterations. Peatlands, covering 3% of land area, have stored about 12-21% of global soil organic nitrogen (12-20Pg N) around rivers, lakes and coasts over millennia and are now often drained and farmed. Their huge nitrogen pools may be released by intensified climate driven hydrologic events-prolonged droughts followed by heavy storms-and later transported to marine ecosystems. In this study, we collected peat monoliths from drained, natural, and restored coastal peatlands in the Southeastern U.S., and conducted a microcosm experiment simulating coupled prolonged-drought and storm events to (1) test whether storms could trigger a pulse of nitrogen export from drought-stressed peatlands and (2) assess how differentially hydrologic managements through shifting plant communities affect nitrogen export by combining an experiment of nitrogen release from litter. During the drought phase, we observed a significant temporal variation in net nitrogen mineralization rate (NMR). NMR spiked in the third month and then decreased rapidly. This pattern indicates that drought duration significantly affects nitrogen mineralization in peat. NMR in the drained site reached up to 490±110kgha(-1)year(-1), about 5 times higher than in the restored site. After the 14-month drought phase, we simulated a heavy storm by bringing peat monoliths to saturation. In the discharge waters, concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen in the monoliths from the drained site (72.7±16.3mgL(-1)) was about ten times as high as from the restored site. Our results indicate that previously drained peatlands under prolonged drought are a potent source of nitrogen export. Moreover, drought-induced plant community shifts to herbaceous plants substantially raise nitrogen release with lasting effects by altering litter quality in peatlands

  4. Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems (United States)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.


    Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than

  5. Screening Pakistani cotton for drought tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soomro, M.H.; Markhand, G.S.


    The drought is one of the biggest abiotic stresses for crop production in arid and semi-arid agriculture. Thus it is a challenge for plant scientists to screen and develop the drought tolerant cotton lines. In this study, 31 cotton genotypes/cultivars were evaluated under two irrigation regimes i. e., seven irrigations (Control) and two irrigations (Stress), using split plot design with four replications. The crop growth, yield and some physiological parameters were studied. There were high inter-varietal differences for all the parameters under control as well as drought stress. Although all the varieties for all parameters were significantly affected by drought but however, CRIS-9, MARVI, CRIS-134, CRIS-126, CRIS-337, CRIS-355 and CRIS-377 maintained highest performance for all the parameters studied under high drought conditions. (author)

  6. Rehab: Drought and famine in Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussein, A.M.


    A Special Report on the two Ethiopian drought-famine crises is reviewed. The Wollo drought occurred at the same time as the West African. Although drought also hit Sudan, and thus spread from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, Ethiopia's drought seems to have been unique, for its normal rainfall pattern is different from that of the Sahel; there are two rainy seasons, linked to a wind system more complex than that in West Africa. The limited data on this is summarized in S. Betheke's chapter of Rehap. This is an important study which helps impact an understanding of the revolution provoked by the Imperial regime's handling of the northern famine, and also allows useful comparisons of the Ethiopian and West African drought crisis.

  7. Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts (United States)

    Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas


    Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

  8. Proteomic studies of drought stress response in Fabaceae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Drought stress is a serious threat to crop production that influences plant growth and development and subsequently causes reduced quantity and quality of the yield. Plant stress induces changes in cell metabolism, which includes differential expression of proteins. Proteomics offer a powerful approach to analyse proteins involved in drought stress response of plants. Analyses of changes in protein abundance of legumes under drought stress are very important, as legumes play an important role in human and animal diet and are often exposed to drought. The presented results of proteomic studies of selected legumes enable better understanding of molecular mechanisms of drought stress response. The study of drought stress response of plants with proteomic approach may contribute to the development of potential drought-response markers and to the development of drought-tolerant cultivars of different legume crop species.

  9. A Global Drought Observatory for Emergency Response (United States)

    Vogt, Jürgen; de Jager, Alfred; Carrão, Hugo; Magni, Diego; Mazzeschi, Marco; Barbosa, Paulo


    Droughts are occurring on all continents and across all climates. While in developed countries they cause significant economic and environmental damages, in less developed countries they may cause major humanitarian catastrophes. The magnitude of the problem and the expected increase in drought frequency, extent and severity in many, often highly vulnerable regions of the world demand a change from the current reactive, crisis-management approach towards a more pro-active, risk management approach. Such approach needs adequate and timely information from global to local scales as well as adequate drought management plans. Drought information systems are important for continuous monitoring and forecasting of the situation in order to provide timely information on developing drought events and their potential impacts. Against this background, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing a Global Drought Observatory (GDO) for the European Commission's humanitarian services, providing up-to-date information on droughts world-wide and their potential impacts. Drought monitoring is achieved by a combination of meteorological and biophysical indicators, while the societal vulnerability to droughts is assessed through the targeted analysis of a series of social, economic and infrastructural indicators. The combination of the information on the occurrence and severity of a drought, on the assets at risk and on the societal vulnerability in the drought affected areas results in a likelihood of impact, which is expressed by a Likelihood of Drought Impact (LDI) indicator. The location, extent and magnitude of the LDI is then further analyzed against the number of people and land use/land cover types affected in order to provide the decision bodies with information on the potential humanitarian and economic bearings in the affected countries or regions. All information is presented through web-mapping interfaces based on OGC standards and customized reports can be drawn by the

  10. A European Drought Reference Database: Design and Online Implementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stagge, J.H.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Kohn, I.; Stahl, K.; Loon, van A.


    This report presents the structure and status of the online European Drought Reference (EDR) database. This website provides detailed historical information regarding major historical European drought events. Each drought event is summarized using climatological drought indices, hydrological drought

  11. Software support for irregular and loosely synchronous problems (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Fox, G.; Hiranandani, S.; Kennedy, K.; Koelbel, C.; Ranka, S.; Saltz, J.


    A large class of scientific and engineering applications may be classified as irregular and loosely synchronous from the perspective of parallel processing. We present a partial classification of such problems. This classification has motivated us to enhance FORTRAN D to provide language support for irregular, loosely synchronous problems. We present techniques for parallelization of such problems in the context of FORTRAN D.

  12. A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought - Part-I: dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and forecast signals (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Si, Yaobing; Yu, Xiao; Wulan; Yang, Peng; Gao, Jing


    This study analyzed the atmospheric evolutionary characteristics of insufficient rainfall that leads to spring drought in Inner Mongolia, China. The results revealed that a weakened western Pacific subtropical high and an enlarged North Polar vortex with a western position of the East Asian trough generally result in unfavorable moisture transportation for spring precipitation in IM. It was found that an abnormal sea surface temperature in several crucial ocean areas triggers an irregular atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the Pacific region. Lower sea surface temperature (SST) during the previous autumn over tropical regions of the central-eastern Pacific and Indian oceans induce a strong Walker circulation, corresponding to a weak and southeastward-retreating subtropical high over the western Pacific during the following winter and spring. Another crucial area is the central region of the North Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally low SST of the ocean area during the preceding autumn causes the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern (the index of which is issued on the website of the Climate Prediction Center, USA) changes to a positive phase, which leads to a weak westerly over the Eurasian continent. In this case, the easterly over the North Pole becomes stronger than normal, resulting in an extended North Polar vortex during the following spring. In addition, SST differences during the previous December between the middle-eastern tropical and the northwestern regions of the Pacific Ocean reflect variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, causing the East Asian trough to move to a western position during the following spring.

  13. Irregular Shaped Building Design Optimization with Building Information Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Xia Sheng


    Full Text Available This research is to recognise the function of Building Information Modelling (BIM in design optimization for irregular shaped buildings. The study focuses on a conceptual irregular shaped “twisted” building design similar to some existing sculpture-like architectures. Form and function are the two most important aspects of new buildings, which are becoming more sophisticated as parts of equally sophisticated “systems” that we are living in. Nowadays, it is common to have irregular shaped or sculpture-like buildings which are very different when compared to regular buildings. Construction industry stakeholders are facing stiff challenges in many aspects such as buildability, cost effectiveness, delivery time and facility management when dealing with irregular shaped building projects. Building Information Modelling (BIM is being utilized to enable architects, engineers and constructors to gain improved visualization for irregular shaped buildings; this has a purpose of identifying critical issues before initiating physical construction work. In this study, three variations of design options differing in rotating angle: 30 degrees, 60 degrees and 90 degrees are created to conduct quantifiable comparisons. Discussions are focused on three major aspects including structural planning, usable building space, and structural constructability. This research concludes that Building Information Modelling is instrumental in facilitating design optimization for irregular shaped building. In the process of comparing different design variations, instead of just giving “yes or no” type of response, stakeholders can now easily visualize, evaluate and decide to achieve the right balance based on their own criteria. Therefore, construction project stakeholders are empowered with superior evaluation and decision making capability.

  14. Tree responses to drought (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan


    With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...

  15. Searching for the optimal drought index and timescale combination to detect drought: a case study from the lower Jinsha River basin, China (United States)

    Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier; Pan, Deng; Fischer, Luzia; Orlowsky, Boris; García-Hernández, Javier; Jordan, Frédéric; Haemmig, Christoph; Zhang, Fangwei; Xu, Jijun


    Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, the comparison of index-identified events with droughts at different levels of the complete system, including soil humidity or river discharges, relies typically on model simulations of the latter, entailing potentially significant uncertainties. The present study explores the potential of using precipitation-based indices to reproduce observed droughts in the lower part of the Jinsha River basin (JRB), proposing an innovative approach for a catchment-wide drought detection and characterization. Two indicators, namely the Overall Drought Extension (ODE) and the Overall Drought Indicator (ODI), have been defined. These indicators aim at identifying and characterizing drought events on the basin scale, using results from four meteorological drought indices (standardized precipitation index, SPI; rainfall anomaly index, RAI; percent of normal precipitation, PN; deciles, DEC) calculated at different locations of the basin and for different timescales. Collected historical information on drought events is used to contrast results obtained with the indicators. This method has been successfully applied to the lower Jinsha River basin in China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts. Historical drought events that occurred from 1960 to 2014 have been compiled and cataloged from different sources, in a challenging process. The analysis of the indicators shows a good agreement with the recorded historical drought events on the basin scale. It has been found that the timescale that best reproduces observed events across all the indices is the 6-month timescale.

  16. Structural adjustment and drought in Zambia. (United States)

    Mulwanda, M


    While drought is not uncommon in Zambia, the country is now facing the worst drought in history. The monetary and social costs will be enormous. Although it is too early to measure the economic and social costs of the drought on Zambia, it is obvious that the impact is catastrophic on a country whose economy is under pressure. The drought will affect the structural adjustment programme (SAP) unveiled by the new government which has embraced the market economy. The country has imported, and will continue to import, large quantities of maize and other foodstuffs, a situation likely to strain the balance of payments. Earlier targets with regard to export earnings, reductions in the budget deficit, and GDP growth as contained in the Policy Framework Paper (PFP) are no longer attainable due to the effects of the drought.

  17. Rainwater harvesting for drought disaster alleviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widodo, B.; Prinzand, D.; Malik, A.H.


    Too little water and too much water can be as devastating as well. Drought usually does not show up instantly like flood, but it creeps slowly. Drought that is less popular than flood has impact more serious than flood. It is difficult to be identified when it comes and when it goes away. However, it is suddenly understood when water becomes scare, or no more water is available in wells, rivers and reservoirs. Managing flood and drought has to be at an integrated basis. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) combined with water conservation methods can be developed to alleviate drought disaster as well as flood disaster in the same time. RWH and water conservation must be an integral part of integrated water resources management. Preventing drought could be automatically reducing the extent of flood that means preventing people and the environment from the disasters. (author)

  18. Drought priming at vegetative growth stages improves tolerance to drought and heat stresses occurring during grain filling in spring wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Xiao; Vignjevic, Marija; Liu, Fulai


    Plants of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Vinjett) were exposed to moderate water deficit at the vegetative growth stages six-leaf and/or stem elongation to investigate drought priming effects on tolerance to drought and heat stress events occurring during the grain filling stage. Compared......Plants of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Vinjett) were exposed to moderate water deficit at the vegetative growth stages six-leaf and/or stem elongation to investigate drought priming effects on tolerance to drought and heat stress events occurring during the grain filling stage...... of abscisic acid in primed plants under drought stress could contribute to higher grain yield compared to the non-primed plants. Taken together, the results indicate that drought priming during vegetative stages improved tolerance to both drought and heat stress events occurring during grain filling in wheat....

  19. Spatiotemporal variation of long-term drought propensity through reliability-resilience-vulnerability based Drought Management Index (United States)

    Chanda, Kironmala; Maity, Rajib; Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar


    This paper characterizes the long-term, spatiotemporal variation of drought propensity through a newly proposed, namely Drought Management Index (DMI), and explores its predictability in order to assess the future drought propensity and adapt drought management policies for a location. The DMI was developed using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability (RRV) rationale commonly used in water resources systems analysis, under the assumption that depletion of soil moisture across a vertical soil column is equivalent to the operation of a water supply reservoir, and that drought should be managed not simply using a measure of system reliability, but should also take into account the readiness of the system to bounce back from drought to a normal state. Considering India as a test bed, 5 year long monthly gridded (0.5° Lat × 0.5° Lon) soil moisture data are used to compute the RRV at each grid location falling within the study domain. The Permanent Wilting Point (PWP) is used as the threshold, indicative of transition into water stress. The association between resilience and vulnerability is then characterized through their joint probability distribution ascertained using Plackett copula models for four broad soil types across India. The joint cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of resilience and vulnerability form the basis for estimating the DMI as a five-yearly time series at each grid location assessed. The status of DMI over the past 50 years indicate that drought propensity is consistently low toward northern and north eastern parts of India but higher in the western part of peninsular India. Based on the observed past behavior of DMI series on a climatological time scale, a DMI prediction model comprising deterministic and stochastic components is developed. The predictability of DMI for a lead time of 5 years is found to vary across India, with a Pearson correlation coefficient between observed and predicted DMI above 0.6 over most of the study area

  20. Saturn's Irregular Moon Ymir (United States)

    Denk, Tilmann; Mottola, S.


    Ymir (diameter 18 km), Saturn's second largest retrograde outer or irregular moon, has been observed six times by the Cassini narrow-angle camera (NAC) during the first 7 months in 2012. The observations span phase angles from 2° up to 102° and were taken at ranges between 15 and 18 million kilometers. From such a distance, Ymir is smaller than a pixel in the Cassini NAC. The data reveal a sidereal rotation period of 11.93 hrs, which is 1.6x longer than the previously reported value (Denk et al. 2011, EPSC/DPS #1452). Reason for this discrepancy is that the rotational light curve shows a rather uncommon 3-maxima and 3-minima shape at least in the phase angle range 50° to 100°, which was not recognizable in earlier data. The data cover several rotations from different viewing and illumination geometries and allow for a convex shape inversion with possibly a unique solution for the pole direction. The model reproduces the observed light curves to a very good accuracy without requiring albedo variegation, thereby suggesting that the lightcurve is dominated by the shape of Ymir. Among Saturn's irregular moons, the phenomenon of more than two maxima and minima at moderate to high phase angles is not unique to Ymir. At least Siarnaq and Paaliaq also show light curves with a strong deviation from a double-sine curve. Their rotation periods, however, remain unknown until more data can be taken. The light curve of Phoebe is fundamentally different to Ymir's because it is mainly shaped by local albedo differences and not by shape. Other reliable rotation periods of irregular satellites measured by Cassini include: Mundilfari 6.74 h; Kari 7.70 h; Albiorix 13.32 h; Kiviuq 21.82 h. More uncertain values are: Skathi 12 h; Bebhionn 16 h; Thrymr 27 h; Erriapus 28 h.


    CERN Multimedia

    Wesley Smith

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The final parts of the Level-1 trigger hardware are now being put in place. For the ECAL endcaps, more than half of the Trigger Concentrator Cards for the ECAL Endcap (TCC-EE) are now available at CERN, such that one complete endcap can be covered. The Global Trigger now correctly handles ECAL calibration sequences, without being influenced by backpressure. The Regional Calorimeter Trigger (RCT) hardware is complete and working in USC55. Intra-crate tests of all 18 RCT crates and the Global Calorimeter Trigger (GCT) are regularly taking place. Pattern tests have successfully captured data from HCAL through RCT to the GCT Source Cards. HB/HE trigger data are being compared with emulator results to track down the very few remaining hardware problems. The treatment of hot and dead cells, including their recording in the database, has been defined. For the GCT, excellent agreement between the emulator and data has been achieved for jets and HF ET sums. There is still som...


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The trigger system has been constantly in use in cosmic and commissioning data taking periods. During CRAFT running it delivered 300 million muon and calorimeter triggers to CMS. It has performed stably and reliably. During the abort gaps it has also provided laser and other calibration triggers. Timing issues, namely synchronization and latency issues, have been solved. About half of the Trigger Concentrator Cards for the ECAL Endcap (TCC-EE) are installed, and the firmware is being worked on. The production of the other half has started. The HCAL Trigger and Readout (HTR) card firmware has been updated, and new features such as fast parallel zero-suppression have been included. Repairs of drift tube (DT) trigger mini-crates, optical links and receivers of sector collectors are under way and have been completed on YB0. New firmware for the optical receivers of the theta links to the drift tube track finder is being installed. In parallel, tests with new eta track finde...


    CERN Multimedia

    R. Carlin with contributions from D. Acosta


    Level-1 Trigger Data-taking continues at cruising speed, with high availability of all components of the Level-1 trigger. We have operated the trigger up to a luminosity of 7.6E33, where we approached 100 kHz using the 7E33 prescale column.  Recently, the pause without triggers in case of an automatic "RESYNC" signal (the "settle" and "recover" time) was reduced in order to minimise the overall dead-time. This may become very important when the LHC comes back with higher energy and luminosity after LS1. We are also preparing for data-taking in the proton-lead run in early 2013. The CASTOR detector will make its comeback into CMS and triggering capabilities are being prepared for this. Steps to be taken include improved cooperation with the TOTEM trigger system and using the LHC clock during the injection and ramp phases of LHC. Studies are being finalised that will have a bearing on the Trigger Technical Design Report (TDR), which is to be rea...

  4. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.


    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  5. Genetic studies towards elucidation of drought tolerance of potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tessema, Biructa Bekele


    Drought is a major threat to agricultural production, which makes drought tolerance a prime target for breeding approaches towards crop improvement. Drought is a complex polygenic trait and poses a challenge for drought tolerance breeding. Improving crops for drought tolerance at least requires

  6. Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought (United States)

    William H. Schlesinger; Michael C. Dietze; Robert B. Jackson; Richard P. Phillips; Charles C. Rhoades; Lindsey E. Rustad; James M. Vose


    Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2O and CH4) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil....

  7. Uniform irradiation of irregularly shaped cavities for photodynamic therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rem, A. I.; van Gemert, M. J.; van der Meulen, F. W.; Gijsbers, G. H.; Beek, J. F.


    It is difficult to achieve a uniform light distribution in irregularly shaped cavities. We have conducted a study on the use of hollow 'integrating' moulds for more uniform light delivery of photodynamic therapy in irregularly shaped cavities such as the oral cavity. Simple geometries such as a

  8. A Comprehensive Study of Agricultural Drought Resistance and Background Drought Levels in Five Main Grain-Producing Regions of China


    Lei Kang; Hongqi Zhang


    Drought control and resistance affect national food security. With this in mind, we studied five main grain-producing regions of China: Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the middle Yangtze River and Jianghuai region and Sichuan Basin. Using GIS technology, we evaluated the comprehensive agricultural drought situation based on major crops, the basic drought resistance by integrating multiple indicators and the comprehensive drought resistance against background agricultural ...

  9. SDI and Markov Chains for Regional Drought Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Feng Yeh


    Full Text Available In recent years, global climate change has altered precipitation patterns, causing uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation that gradually induces precipitation polarization phenomena. Taiwan is located in the subtropical climate zone, with distinct wet and dry seasons, which makes the polarization phenomenon more obvious; this has also led to a large difference between river flows during the wet and dry seasons, which is significantly influenced by precipitation, resulting in hydrological drought. Therefore, to effectively address the growing issue of water shortages, it is necessary to explore and assess the drought characteristics of river systems. In this study, the drought characteristics of northern Taiwan were studied using the streamflow drought index (SDI and Markov chains. Analysis results showed that the year 2002 was a turning point for drought severity in both the Lanyang River and Yilan River basins; the severity of rain events in the Lanyang River basin increased after 2002, and the severity of drought events in the Yilan River basin exhibited a gradual upward trend. In the study of drought severity, analysis results from periods of three months (November to January and six months (November to April have shown significant drought characteristics. In addition, analysis of drought occurrence probabilities using the method of Markov chains has shown that the occurrence probabilities of drought events are higher in the Lanyang River basin than in the Yilan River basin; particularly for extreme events, the occurrence probability of an extreme drought event is 20.6% during the dry season (November to April in the Lanyang River basin, and 3.4% in the Yilan River basin. This study shows that for analysis of drought/wet occurrence probabilities, the results obtained for the drought frequency and occurrence probability using short-term data with the method of Markov chains can be used to predict the long-term occurrence

  10. Spatial differences in drought vulnerability (United States)

    Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.


    Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

  11. Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, Van A.F.; Laaha, G.


    Impacts of a drought are generally dependent on the severity of the hydrological drought event, which can be expressed by streamflow drought duration or deficit volume. For prediction and the selection of drought sensitive regions, it is crucial to know how streamflow drought severity relates to

  12. 2003 hydrological drought - natural disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trninic, Dusan; Bosnjak, Tomislava


    An exceptionally dry and warm period from February to early October 2003 resulted in hydrological drought with attributes of a natural disaster in most of the Croatian regions. The paper presents hydrological analysis of the Sava River near Zupanja for the period 1945-2003 (N=59 years). In defining maximum annual volumes of isolated waves below the reference discharges, the following reference discharges were used:Q 30,95% = 202m 3 s -1 - minimum mean 30-day discharge, 95 % probability, Q 30,80% = 254m 3 s -1 - minimum mean 30-day discharge, 80 % probability, Q 95% = 297m 3 s -1 - (H = -17cm minimum navigation level = 95 % of water level duration from average duration curve). The analysis results have shown that the hydrological drought recorded during the current year belongs to the most thoroughly studied droughts in 59 years. For example, hydrological analysis of the reference discharge of 297m 3 s -1 has shown that this year drought comes second, immediately after the driest year 1946. However, this year hydrological drought hit the record duration of 103 days, unlike the one from 1946, which lasted 98 days. It is interesting that the hydrological droughts affect the Sava River usually in autumn and summer, rarely in winter, and it has never been recorded in spring (referring to the analysed 1945-2003 period). In conclusion, some recommendations are given for increase in low streamflows and on possible impacts of climate changes on these flows.(Author)

  13. The bioeconomic implications of various drought management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Drought management strategies; Herd structures; KwaZulu/Natal; Labour costs; Net present values; Simulation modelling; drought; drought management; management strategy; cattle; semi-arid; savanna; south africa; net present value; simulation model; domestic stock; economics. African Journal of Range ...

  14. Analysis of an Irregular RC Multi-storeyed Building Subjected to Dynamic Loading (United States)

    AkashRaut; Pachpor, Prabodh; Dautkhani, Sanket


    Many buildings in the present scenario have irregular configurations both in plan and elevation. This in future may subject to devastating earthquakes. So it is necessary to analyze the structure. The present paper is made to study three type of irregularity wiz vertical, mass and plan irregularity as per clause 7.1 of IS 1893 (part1)2002 code. The paper discusses the analysis of RC (Reinforced Concrete) Buildings with vertical irregularity. The study as a whole makes an effort to evaluate the effect of vertical irregularity on RC buildings for which comparison of three parameters namely shear force, bending moment and deflection are taken into account.

  15. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.


    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  16. A new multi-sensor integrated index for drought monitoring (United States)

    Jiao, W.; Wang, L.; Tian, C.


    Drought is perceived as one of the most expensive and least understood natural disasters. The remote-sensing-based integrated drought indices, which integrate multiple variables, could reflect the drought conditions more comprehensively than single drought indices. However, most of current remote-sensing-based integrated drought indices focus on agricultural drought (i.e., deficit in soil moisture), their application in monitoring meteorological drought (i.e., deficit in precipitation) was limited. More importantly, most of the remote-sensing-based integrated drought indices did not take into consideration of the spatially non-stationary nature of the related variables, so such indices may lose essential local details when integrating multiple variables. In this regard, we proposed a new mathematical framework for generating integrated drought index for meteorological drought monitoring. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and principal component analysis were used to composite Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based temperature condition index (TCI), the Vegetation Index based on the Universal Pattern Decomposition method (VIUPD) based vegetation condition index (VCI), tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) based Precipitation Condition Index (PCI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) based soil moisture condition index (SMCI). We called the new remote-sensing-based integrated drought index geographical-location-based integrated drought index (GLIDI). We examined the utility of the GLIDI for drought monitoring in various climate divisions across the continental United States (CONUS). GLIDI showed high correlations with in-situ drought indices and outperformed most other existing drought indices. The results also indicate that the performance of GLIDI is not affected by environmental factors such as land cover, precipitation, temperature and soil conditions. As such, the GLIDI has considerable potential for

  17. Spatial irregularities in Jupiter's upper ionosphere observed by Voyager radio occultations (United States)

    Hinson, D. P.; Tyler, G. L.


    Radio scintillations (at 3.6 and 13 cm) produced by scattering from ionospheric irregularities during the Voyager occultations are interpreted using a weak-scattering theory. Least squares solutions for ionospheric parameters derived from the observed fluctuation spectra yield estimates of (1) the axial ratio, (2) angular orientation of the anisotropic irregularities, (3) the power law exponent of the spatial spectrum of irregularities, and (4) the magnitude of the spatial variations in electron density. It is shown that the measured angular orientation of the anisotropic irregularities indicates magnetic field direction and may provide a basis for refining Jovian magnetic field models.

  18. Irregular Dwarf Galaxy IC 1613 (United States)


    Ultraviolet image (left) and visual image (right) of the irregular dwarf galaxy IC 1613. Low surface brightness galaxies, such as IC 1613, are more easily detected in the ultraviolet because of the low background levels compared to visual wavelengths.

  19. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts? (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; England, Matthew H.; McIntosh, Peter C.; Meyers, Gary A.; Pook, Michael J.; Risbey, James S.; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Taschetto, Andréa S.


    Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called ``Big Dry''. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the ``Big Dry'' and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the ``Big Dry'', its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

  20. Regularisation of irregular verbs in child English second language ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Data was collected from the language of English medium preschool children. The study concludes that when the Blocking Principle interferes, children resort to a novel interlanguage rule that regularises irregular verbs. This interlanguage rule applies in a similar way to all irregular verbs, thus children produce utterances ...

  1. Exceptional Drought and Unconventional Energy Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reid B. Stevens


    Full Text Available The hydraulic fracturing boom in Texas required massive water flows. Beginning in the summer of 2011, water became scarce as a prolonged heat wave and subsequent severe drought spread across the state. Oil and gas producers working in drought areas needed to purchase expensive local water or transport water from a non-drought county far from the drill site. In response to decreased water availability in drought areas, these producers completed fewer wells and completed wells that used less water. This decrease in well-level water use had a measurable effect on the amount of oil and gas produced by wells completed during exceptional conditions.

  2. Variability and trends in global drought (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.


    Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

  3. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China


    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  4. Low frequency sound reproduction in irregular rooms using CABS (Control Acoustic Bass System)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Celestinos, Adrian; Nielsen, Sofus Birkedal


    of an irregular room model using the FDTD (Finite Difference Time Domain) method has been presented. CABS has been simulated in the irregular room model. Measurements of CABS in a real irregular room have been performed. The performance of CABS was affected by the irregular shape of the room due to the corner...

  5. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert) (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  6. Drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quevauviller, P.; Lanen, Van Henny A.J.


    Drought is one of the most extreme weather-related natural hazards. It differs from other hydrometeorological extremes in several ways. It develops gradually and usually over large areas (transnational), mostly resulting from a prolonged period (from months to years) of below-normal


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Obringer


    Full Text Available This study aims to integrate environmental data for drought monitoring to reduce uncertainty in urban drought characterization as part of the smart city framework. Currently, drought monitoring in urban areas is a challenge. This is due, in part, to a lack of knowledge on the subject of urban droughts and urban drought vulnerability. A critical part to assessing urban drought and implementing the necessary policies is determining drought conditions. Often the timing and severity of the drought can leave cities to enforce water restrictions, so accuracy of this determination has socioeconomic implications. To determine drought conditions, we need to know the water balance over the urban landscape, of which evapotranspiration (ET is a key variable. However, ET data and models have high uncertainty when compared to other hydrological variables (i.e., precipitation. This is largely due to ill-defined empirical models for characterizing the urban surface resistance parameter (rs that is used in ET calculations. We propose a method to estimate rs values using a combination of the Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC method that calculates regional evapotranspiration data and an inverted version of the Penman-Monteith equation. We use this approach across the region surrounding Indianapolis, IN (USA from 2010-2014. We discuss the potential for this method to be integrated in to smart city framework to improve urban drought assessment.

  8. Enhancing drought tolerance in C(4) crops. (United States)

    Lopes, Marta S; Araus, Jose Luis; van Heerden, Philippus D R; Foyer, Christine H


    Adaptation to abiotic stresses is a quantitative trait controlled by many different genes. Enhancing the tolerance of crop plants to abiotic stresses such as drought has therefore proved to be somewhat elusive in terms of plant breeding. While many C(4) species have significant agronomic importance, most of the research effort on improving drought tolerance has focused on maize. Ideally, drought tolerance has to be achieved without penalties in yield potential. Possibilities for success in this regard are highlighted by studies on maize hybrids performed over the last 70 years that have demonstrated that yield potential and enhanced stress tolerance are associated traits. However, while our understanding of the molecular mechanisms that enable plants to tolerate drought has increased considerably in recent years, there have been relatively few applications of DNA marker technologies in practical C(4) breeding programmes for improved stress tolerance. Moreover, until recently, targeted approaches to drought tolerance have concentrated largely on shoot parameters, particularly those associated with photosynthesis and stay green phenotypes, rather than on root traits such as soil moisture capture for transpiration, root architecture, and improvement of effective use of water. These root traits are now increasingly considered as important targets for yield improvement in C(4) plants under drought stress. Similarly, the molecular mechanisms underpinning heterosis have considerable potential for exploitation in enhancing drought stress tolerance. While current evidence points to the crucial importance of root traits in drought tolerance in C(4) plants, shoot traits may also be important in maintaining high yields during drought.

  9. High energy model for irregular absorbing particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiappetta, Pierre.


    In the framework of a high energy formulation of relativistic quantum scattering a model is presented which describes the scattering functions and polarization of irregular absorbing particles, whose dimensions are greater than the incident wavelength. More precisely in the forward direction an amplitude parametrization of eikonal type is defined which generalizes the usual diffraction theory, and in the backward direction a reflective model is used including a shadow function. The model predictions are in good agreement with the scattering measurements off irregular compact and fluffy particles performed by Zerull, Giese and Weiss (1977)

  10. (SSR) markers for drought tolerance in maize

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Maize is moderately sensitive to drought. Drought affects virtually all aspects of maize growth in varying degrees at all stages, from germination to maturity. Tolerance to drought is genetically and physiologically complicated and inherited quantitatively. Application of molecular-marker aided selection technique for ...


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith

    At the March meeting, the CMS trigger group reported on progress in production, tests in the Electronics Integration Center (EIC) in Prevessin 904, progress on trigger installation in the underground counting room at point 5, USC55, the program of trigger pattern tests and vertical slice tests and planning for the Global Runs starting this summer. The trigger group is engaged in the final stages of production testing, systems integration, and software and firmware development. Most systems are delivering final tested electronics to CERN. The installation in USC55 is underway and integration testing is in full swing. A program of orderly connection and checkout with subsystems and central systems has been developed. This program includes a series of vertical subsystem slice tests providing validation of a portion of each subsystem from front-end electronics through the trigger and DAQ to data captured and stored. After full checkout, trigger subsystems will be then operated in the CMS Global Runs. Continuous...


    CERN Multimedia

    Wesley Smith


    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software New Forward Scintillating Counters (FSC) for rapidity gap measurements have been installed and integrated into the Trigger recently. For the Global Muon Trigger, tuning of quality criteria has led to improvements in muon trigger efficiencies. Several subsystems have started campaigns to increase spares by recovering boards or producing new ones. The barrel muon sector collector test system has been reactivated, new η track finder boards are in production, and φ track finder boards are under revision. In the CSC track finder, an η asymmetry problem has been corrected. New pT look-up tables have also improved efficiency. RPC patterns were changed from four out of six coincident layers to three out of six in the barrel, which led to a significant increase in efficiency. A new PAC firmware to trigger on heavy stable charged particles allows looking for chamber hit coincidences in two consecutive bunch-crossings. The redesign of the L1 Trigger Emulator...


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith from contributions of C. Leonidopoulos, I. Mikulec, J. Varela and C. Wulz.

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software Over the past few months, the Level-1 trigger has successfully recorded data with cosmic rays over long continuous stretches as well as LHC splash events, beam halo, and collision events. The L1 trigger hardware, firmware, synchronization, performance and readiness for beam operation were reviewed in October. All L1 trigger hardware is now installed at Point 5, and most of it is completely commissioned. While the barrel ECAL Trigger Concentrator Cards are fully operational, the recently delivered endcap ECAL TCC system is still being commissioned. For most systems there is a sufficient number of spares available, but for a few systems additional reserve modules are needed. It was decided to increase the overall L1 latency by three bunch crossings to increase the safety margin for trigger timing adjustments. In order for CMS to continue data taking during LHC frequency ramps, the clock distribution tree needs to be reset. The procedures for this have been tested. A repl...

  14. Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Tim Krannich


    Full Text Available Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance.

  15. Flexible trigger menu implementation on the Global Trigger for the CMS Level-1 trigger upgrade (United States)

    MATSUSHITA, Takashi; CMS Collaboration


    The CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has continued to explore physics at the high-energy frontier in 2016. The integrated luminosity delivered by the LHC in 2016 was 41 fb-1 with a peak luminosity of 1.5 × 1034 cm-2s-1 and peak mean pile-up of about 50, all exceeding the initial estimations for 2016. The CMS experiment has upgraded its hardware-based Level-1 trigger system to maintain its performance for new physics searches and precision measurements at high luminosities. The Global Trigger is the final step of the CMS Level-1 trigger and implements a trigger menu, a set of selection requirements applied to the final list of objects from calorimeter and muon triggers, for reducing the 40 MHz collision rate to 100 kHz. The Global Trigger has been upgraded with state-of-the-art FPGA processors on Advanced Mezzanine Cards with optical links running at 10 GHz in a MicroTCA crate. The powerful processing resources of the upgraded system enable implementation of more algorithms at a time than previously possible, allowing CMS to be more flexible in how it handles the available trigger bandwidth. Algorithms for a trigger menu, including topological requirements on multi-objects, can be realised in the Global Trigger using the newly developed trigger menu specification grammar. Analysis-like trigger algorithms can be represented in an intuitive manner and the algorithms are translated to corresponding VHDL code blocks to build a firmware. The grammar can be extended in future as the needs arise. The experience of implementing trigger menus on the upgraded Global Trigger system will be presented.

  16. Total edge irregularity strength of (n,t)-kite graph (United States)

    Winarsih, Tri; Indriati, Diari


    Let G(V, E) be a simple, connected, and undirected graph with vertex set V and edge set E. A total k-labeling is a map that carries vertices and edges of a graph G into a set of positive integer labels {1, 2, …, k}. An edge irregular total k-labeling λ :V(G)\\cup E(G)\\to \\{1,2,\\ldots,k\\} of a graph G is a labeling of vertices and edges of G in such a way that for any different edges e and f, weights wt(e) and wt(f) are distinct. The weight wt(e) of an edge e = xy is the sum of the labels of vertices x and y and the label of the edge e. The total edge irregularity strength of G, tes(G), is defined as the minimum k for which a graph G has an edge irregular total k-labeling. An (n, t)-kite graph consist of a cycle of length n with a t-edge path (the tail) attached to one vertex of a cycle. In this paper, we investigate the total edge irregularity strength of the (n, t)-kite graph, with n > 3 and t > 1. We obtain the total edge irregularity strength of the (n, t)-kite graph is tes((n, t)-kite) = \\lceil \\frac{n+t+2}{3}\\rceil .

  17. Risk assessment of drought disaster in southern China (United States)

    Wang, Y.


    Abstract: Drought has become an increasing concern in southern China, but the drought risk has not been adequately studied. This study presents a method for the spatial assessment of drought risk in southern China using a conceptual framework that emphasizes the combined role of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure.A drought hazard map was retrieved with a compound index of meteorological drought method in a GIS environment. Normally, a large variation in the disaster-inducing factor implies a high probability of economic/social losses caused by a drought disaster. The map indicated that areas with a higher risk of drought hazard were mainly distributed in mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The vulnerability indices were based on climate factors as well as land use, geomorphological types, soil properties, and drainage density. The water preserving capability of purple calcareous soil in the basins in Sichuan and mid-east Yunnan, and the lateritic red soil in northeastern Guangdong is relatively weak. The main geomorphological features in Guangxi and Guangdong are hills, which leads to a serious expectation of soil and water losses. Thus, the main areas with a high risk of drought vulnerability are mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The exposure indices were based on population density and agricultural production because population and agriculture experience the main impacts of a drought disaster. Higher exposure indices mean higher economic/social losses due to drought disasters. Areas with high exposure indices were mainly distributed in Guangdong and southern Guangxi.The overall risk was then calculated as the product of the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The results indicated a higher risk of drought disaster in the basins in eastern Sichuan,, northeastern Yunnan, and northeastern Guangdong. The main factor influencing the risk of a drought disaster was the hazard, but the vulnerability and exposure also played important roles.

  18. Drought propagation and its relation with catchment biophysical characteristics (United States)

    Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Lara, A.; Garreaud, R. D.


    Droughts propagate in the hydrological cycle from meteorological to soil moisture to hydrological droughts. To understand the drivers of this process is of paramount importance since the economic and societal impacts in water resources are directly related with hydrological droughts (and not with meteorological droughts, which have been most studied). This research analyses drought characteristics over a large region and identify its main exogenous (climate forcing) and endogenous (biophysical characteristics such as land cover type and topography) explanatory factors. The study region is Chile, which covers seven major climatic subtypes according to Köppen system, it has unique geographic characteristics, very sharp topography and a wide range of landscapes and vegetation conditions. Meteorological and hydrological droughts (deficit in precipitation and streamflow, respectively) are characterized by their durations and standardized deficit volumes using a variable threshold method, over 300 representative catchments (located between 27°S and 50°S). To quantify the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought, we propose a novel drought attenuation index (DAI), calculated as the ratio between the meteorological drought severity slope and the hydrological drought severity slope. DAI varies from zero (catchment that attenuates completely a meteorological drought) to one (the meteorological drought is fully propagated through the hydrological cycle). This novel index provides key (and comparable) information about drought propagation over a wide range of different catchments, which has been highlighted as a major research gap. Similar drought indicators across the wide range of catchments are then linked with catchment biophysical characteristics. A thorough compilation of land cover information (including the percentage of native forests, grass land, urban and industrial areas, glaciers, water bodies and no vegetated areas), catchment physical

  19. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China (United States)

    Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian


    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

  20. Genotypic variation in growth and physiological response to drought stress and re-watering reveals the critical role of recovery in drought adaptation in maize seedlings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daoqian eChen


    Full Text Available Non-irrigated crops in temperate climates and irrigated crops in arid climates are subjected to continuous cycles of water stress and re-watering. Thus, fast and efficient recovery from water stress may be among the key determinants of plant drought adaptation. The present study was designed to comparatively analyze the roles of drought resistance and drought recovery in drought adaptation and to investigate the physiological basis of genotypic variation in drought adaptation in maize (Zea mays seedlings. As the seedlings behavior in growth associate with yield under drought, it could partly reflect the potential of drought adaptability. Growth and physiological responses to progressive drought stress and recovery were observed in seedlings of ten maize lines. The results showed that drought adaptability is closely related to drought recovery (r = 0.714**, but not to drought resistance (r = 0.332. Drought induced decreases in leaf water content, water potential, osmotic potential, gas exchange parameters, chlorophyll content, Fv/Fm and nitrogen content, and increased H2O2 accumulation and lipid peroxidation. After recovery, most of these physiological parameters rapidly returned to normal levels. The physiological responses varied between lines. Further correlation analysis indicated that the physiological bases of drought resistance and drought recovery are definitely different, and that maintaining higher chlorophyll content (r = 0.874*** and Fv/Fm (r = 0.626* under drought stress contributes to drought recovery. Our results suggest that both drought resistance and recovery are key determinants of plant drought adaptation, and that drought recovery may play a more important role than previously thought. In addition, leaf water potential, chlorophyll content and Fv/Fm could be used as efficient reference indicators in the selection of drought-adaptive genotypes.

  1. Heme oxygenase-1 delays gibberellin-induced programmed cell death of rice aleurone layers subjected to drought stress by interacting with nitric oxide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huangming eWu


    Full Text Available Cereal aleurone layers undergo a gibberellin (GA-regulated process of programmed cell death (PCD following germination. Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1 is known as a rate-liming enzyme in the degradation of heme to biliverdin IXα (BV, carbon monoxide (CO, and free iron ions (Fe2+. It is a critical component in plant development and adaptation to environment stresses. Our previous studies confirmed that HO-1 inducer hematin (Ht promotes the germination of rice seeds in drought (20% polyethylene glycol-6000, PEG conditions, but the corresponding effects of HO-1 on the alleviation of germination-triggered PCD in GA-treated rice aleurone layers remain unknown. The present study has determined that GA co-treated with PEG results in lower HO-1 transcript levels and HO activity, which in turn results in the development of vacuoles in aleurone cells, followed by PCD. The pharmacology approach illustrated that up- or down-regulated HO-1 gene expression and HO activity delayed or accelerated GA-induced PCD. Furthermore, the application of the HO-1 inducer hematin and nitric oxide (NO donor sodium nitroprusside (SNP not only activated HO-1 gene expression, HO activity, and endogenous NO content, but also blocked GA-induced rapid vacuolation and accelerated aleurone layers PCD under drought stress. However, both HO-1 inhibitor zinc protoporphyrin IX (ZnPPIX and NO scavenger 2-(4-carboxyphenyl0-4, 4, 5, 5-tetramethylimidazoline-l-oxyl-3-oxide potassium salt (cPTIO reserved the effects of hematin and SNP on rice aleurone layer PCD under drought stress by down-regulating endogenous HO-1 and NO, respectively. The inducible effects of hematin and SNP on HO-1 gene expression, HO activity, and NO content were blocked by cPTIO. Together, these results clearly suggest that HO-1 is involved in the alleviation of GA-induced PCD of drought-triggered rice aleurone layers by associating with NO.

  2. Drought and ecosystem carbon cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molen, M.K. van der; Dolman, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Eglin, T.; Gobron, N.; Law, B.E.; Meir, P.; Peters, P.; Philips, O.L.; Reichstein, M.; Chen, T.; Dekker, S.C.; Doubkova, M.; Friedl, M.A.; Jung, M.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Jeu, R.A.M. de; Kruijt, B.; Ohta, T.; Rebel, K.T.; Plummer, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Sitch, S.; Teuling, A.J.; Werf, G.R. van der; Wang, G.


    Drought as an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle interacts with the carbon cycle differently than the ‘gradual’ climate change. During drought plants respond physiologically and structurally to prevent excessive water loss according to species-specific water use strategies. This has

  3. Induction of drought tolerance in cucumber plants by a consortium of three plant growth-promoting rhizobacterium strains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Juan Wang

    Full Text Available Our previous work showed that a consortium of three plant growth-promoting rhizobacterium (PGPR strains (Bacillus cereus AR156, Bacillus subtilis SM21, and Serratia sp. XY21, termed as BBS for short, was a promising biocontrol agent. The present study investigated its effect on drought tolerance in cucumber plants. After withholding watering for 13 days, BBS-treated cucumber plants had much darker green leaves and substantially lighter wilt symptoms than control plants. Compared to the control, the BBS treatment decreased the leaf monodehydroascorbate (MDA content and relative electrical conductivity by 40% and 15%, respectively; increased the leaf proline content and the root recovery intension by 3.45-fold and 50%, respectively; and also maintained the leaf chlorophyll content in cucumber plants under drought stress. Besides, in relation to the control, the BBS treatment significantly enhanced the superoxide dismutase (SOD activity and mitigated the drought-triggered down-regulation of the expression of the genes cAPX, rbcL, and rbcS encoding cytosolic ascorbate peroxidase, and ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxy/oxygenase (Rubisco large and small subunits, respectively, in cucumber leaves. However, 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate (ACC deaminase activity was undetected in none of the culture solutions of three BBS constituent strains. These results indicated that BBS conferred induced systemic tolerance to drought stress in cucumber plants, by protecting plant cells, maintaining photosynthetic efficiency and root vigor and increasing some of antioxidase activities, without involving the action of ACC deaminase to lower plant ethylene levels.

  4. Characterizing Drought Risk Management and Assessing the Robustness of Snowpack-based Drought Indicators in the Upper Colorado River Basin. (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Lukas, J.; Dilling, L.; Page, R.


    Drought conditions over the past two decades have arisen during a time of increasing water demands in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The Basin's highly allocated and diverse water systems raise the question of how drought-based information, such as snowpack, streamflow, and reservoir conditions, can be used to inform drought risk management. Like most of the western U.S., snow-water equivalent (SWE) at key dates during the year (e.g., April 1) is routinely used in water resource planning because it is often the highest observed value during the season and it embodies stored water to be released, through melt, during critical periods later in the summer. This presentation will first focus on how water managers on Colorado's Western Slope (a) perceive drought-related risk, (b) use and access drought information, and (c) respond to drought. Preliminary findings will be presented from in-person interviews, document analysis, observations of planning meetings, and other interactions with seven water-management entities across the Western Slope. The second part of the presentation will focus on how the predictive power of snowpack-based drought indicators—identified as the most useful and reliable drought indicator by regional water stakeholders—are expected change in a warmer world, i.e. where expectations are for more rain versus snow, smaller snowpacks, and earlier snowmelt and peak runoff. We will present results from hydrologic simulations using climate projection to examine how a warming climate will affect the robustness of these snowpack-based drought indicators by mid-century.

  5. Evaluation of drought tolerance indices for the selection of Iranian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought is an important factor limiting crop production in arid and semi-arid conditions. Drought indices which provide a measure of drought based on yield loss under drought condition in comparison to normal condition was used for screening drought-tolerant genotypes. This study was conducted to determine drought ...

  6. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli


    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  7. Classical limit of irregular blocks and Mathieu functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piątek, Marcin; Pietrykowski, Artur R.


    The Nekrasov-Shatashvili limit of the N = 2 SU(2) pure gauge (Ω-deformed) super Yang-Mills theory encodes the information about the spectrum of the Mathieu operator. On the other hand, the Mathieu equation emerges entirely within the frame of two-dimensional conformal field theory (2d CFT) as the classical limit of the null vector decoupling equation for some degenerate irregular block. Therefore, it seems to be possible to investigate the spectrum of the Mathieu operator employing the techniques of 2d CFT. To exploit this strategy, a full correspondence between the Mathieu equation and its realization within 2d CFT has to be established. In our previous paper, we have found that the expression of the Mathieu eigenvalue given in terms of the classical irregular block exactly coincides with the well known weak coupling expansion of this eigenvalue in the case in which the auxiliary parameter is the noninteger Floquet exponent. In the present work we verify that the formula for the corresponding eigenfunction obtained from the irregular block reproduces the so-called Mathieu exponent from which the noninteger order elliptic cosine and sine functions may be constructed. The derivation of the Mathieu equation within the formalism of 2d CFT is based on conjectures concerning the asymptotic behaviour of irregular blocks in the classical limit. A proof of these hypotheses is sketched. Finally, we speculate on how it could be possible to use the methods of 2d CFT in order to get from the irregular block the eigenvalues of the Mathieu operator in other regions of the coupling constant.

  8. Development of a Strategic Framework for Drought Management (United States)

    Kang, Jaewon; Kim, Sooyoung; Suh, Aesook; Cho, Younghyun


    A drought starts with lack of precipitation; as the deficit of precipitation is prolonged, the loss of water influences on the amount of soil water because of evapotranspiration. In addition, the decreased runoff of surface and underground water also reduces discharge in rivers and storage in reservoirs; these reductions then lead to the decline in the supply capability of water resources supply facilities. Therefore, individuals may experience a given drought differently depending on their circumstances. In an area with a metropolitan water supply network that draws water from a multipurpose dam, residents might not realize that a meteorological drought is present since they are provided with sufficient water. Similar situation might occur in farmlands for which an irrigation system supplies water from an agricultural reservoir. In Korea, several institutions adopt each drought indices in their roles. Since March 2016, the Ministry of Public Safety and Security, via inter-ministerial cooperation, has been classifying and announcing drought situations in each administrative district of Korea into three types, meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological droughts, with three levels such as 'caution,' 'serious,' or 'very serious.' Deriving the drought index considering storage facilities and other factors and expressing them in three categories are valid as methods. However, the current method that represent the drought situation in an administrative district as a whole should be improved to recognize the drought situation more realistically and to make appropriate strategic responses. This study designs and implements a pilot model of a framework that re-establishes zones for drought situation representation, taking water usage and water supply infrastructure into account based on land use maps. In addition, each resulting district is provided with statistical indices that can assist in the application of appropriate drought indices and the understanding of

  9. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong


    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  10. Drought Forecasting Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS, Drought Time Series and Climate Indices For Next Coming Year, (Case Study: Zahedan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Hosseinpour Niknam


    Full Text Available In this research in order to forecast drought for the next coming year in Zahedan, using previous Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI data and 19 other climate indices were used.  For this purpose Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS was applied to build the predicting model and SPI drought index for drought quantity.  At first calculating correlation approach for analysis between droughts and climate indices was used and the most suitable indices were selected. In the next stage drought prediction for period of 12 months was done. Different combinations among input variables in ANFIS models were entered. SPI drought index was the output of the model.  The results showed that just using time series like the previous year drought SPI index in forecasting the 12 month drought was effective. However among all climate indices that were used, Nino4 showed the most suitable results.

  11. Drought, nutrition and food security

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Greater vulnerability to infectious diseases. Population displacements and mass migrations with all ...

  12. Coping with drought risk: empirical analysis of farmers' drought adaption in the south-west Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duinen, Rianne; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Petrus A.T.M.; van der Veen, A.


    Climate change projections show that periods of droughts are likely to increase, causing decreasing water availability, salinization, and consequently farm income loss in the south-west Netherlands. Adaptation is the key to decrease a farmer's drought vulnerability and to secure the agricultural

  13. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas


    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  14. Examining U.S. Irregular Warfare Doctrine

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kimbrough, IV, James M


    ... of insurgency and terrorism. In response to the associated strategic challenges, a growing debate occurred among military historians, strategists, and leaders about the proper principles necessary for contemporary irregular...

  15. Breeding sunflower for drought tolerance: genetic variability for drought torrance in sunflower (Helianthus Annuus L.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.K.; Ilyas, M.; Rehman, O.U.


    Five inbred lines and their all possible crosses excluding reciprocals were evaluated for tolerance to drought and effect of drought adversely influenced the traits of leaf area, days to maturity, head diameter, 100-achene weight and achene yield per plant, whereas number of leaves per plant and plant height were comparatively less affected. Average performance of sunflower cross/hybrids was far more better than parental lines. Inbred lines GIMSUN-420x-431 and GIMSUN-498x-477 produced higher achene yield under drought conditions and showed less loses than other. Effect of drought on various growth stages showed that button (R1 stage) was the most critical as compared to 50% flowering (R5 stage) and seed formation (R6 stage) which reduced leaf area, head diameter, 100-achene weight and achene yield per plant by 40-59, 32-14 and 31-07 percent respectively. (author)

  16. Traffic dispersion through a series of signals with irregular split (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi


    We study the traffic behavior of a group of vehicles moving through a sequence of signals with irregular splits on a roadway. We present the stochastic model of vehicular traffic controlled by signals. The dynamic behavior of vehicular traffic is clarified by analyzing traffic pattern and travel time numerically. The group of vehicles breaks up more and more by the irregularity of signal's split. The traffic dispersion is induced by the irregular split. We show that the traffic dispersion depends highly on the cycle time and the strength of split's irregularity. Also, we study the traffic behavior through the series of signals at the green-wave strategy. The dependence of the travel time on offset time is derived for various values of cycle time. The region map of the traffic dispersion is shown in (cycle time, offset time)-space.

  17. Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring (United States)

    Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad


    Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop

  18. GARCH and Irregularly Spaced Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meddahi, N.; Renault, E.; Werker, B.J.M.


    An exact discretization of continuous time stochastic volatility processes observed at irregularly spaced times is used to give insights on how a coherent GARCH model can be specified for such data. The relation of our approach with those in the existing literature is studied.

  19. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.


    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  20. Development of a Coastal Drought Index Using Salinity Data (United States)

    Conrads, P. A.; Darby, L. S.


    The freshwater-saltwater interface in surface-water bodies along the coast is an important factor in the ecological and socio-economic dynamics of coastal communities. It influences community composition in freshwater and saltwater ecosystems, determines fisheries spawning habitat, and controls freshwater availability for municipal and industrial water intakes. These dynamics may be affected by coastal drought through changes in Vibrio bacteria impacts on shellfish harvesting and occurrence of wound infection, fish kills, harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and beach closures. There are many definitions of drought, with most describing a decline in precipitation having negative impacts on water supply and agriculture. Four general types of drought are recognized: hydrological, agricultural, meteorological, and socio-economic. Indices have been developed for these drought types incorporating data such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, groundwater levels, and snow pack. These indices were developed for upland areas and may not be appropriate for characterizing drought in coastal areas. Because of the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems, a need exists to develop a coastal drought index. The availability of real-time and historical salinity datasets provides an opportunity to develop a salinity-based coastal drought index. The challenge of characterizing salinity dynamics in response to drought is excluding responses attributable to occasional saltwater intrusion events. Our approach to develop a coastal drought index modified the Standardized Precipitation Index and applied it to sites in South Carolina and Georgia, USA. Coastal drought indices characterizing 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and12-month drought conditions were developed. Evaluation of the coastal drought index indicates that it can be used for different estuary types, for comparison between estuaries, and as an index for wet conditions (high freshwater inflow) in addition to drought conditions.


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith, from contributions of D. Acosta


      The L1 Trigger group deployed several major improvements this year. Compared to 2011, the single-muon trigger rate has been reduced by a factor of 2 and the η coverage has been restored to 2.4, with high efficiency. During the current technical stop, a higher jet seed threshold will be applied in the Global Calorimeter Trigger in order to significantly reduce the strong pile-up dependence of the HT and multi-jet triggers. The currently deployed L1 menu, with the “6E33” prescales, has a total rate of less than 100 kHz and operates with detector readout dead time of less than 3% for luminosities up to 6.5 × 1033 cm–2s–1. Further prescale sets have been created for 7 and 8 × 1033 cm–2s–1 luminosities. The L1 DPG is evaluating the performance of the Trigger for upcoming conferences and publication. Progress on the Trigger upgrade was reviewed during the May Upgrade Week. We are investigating scenarios for stagin...


    CERN Multimedia

    R. Arcidiacono


      In 2013 the Trigger Studies Group (TSG) has been restructured in three sub-groups: STEAM, for the development of new HLT menus and monitoring their performance; STORM, for the development of HLT tools, code and actual configurations; and FOG, responsible for the online operations of the High Level Trigger. The Strategy for Trigger Evolution And Monitoring (STEAM) group is responsible for Trigger Menu development, path timing, trigger performance studies coordination, HLT offline DQM as well as HLT release, menu and conditions validation – in collaboration and with the technical support of the PdmV group. Since the end of proton-proton data taking, the group has started preparing for 2015 data taking, with collisions at 13 TeV and 25 ns bunch spacing. The reliability of the extrapolation to higher energy is being evaluated comparing the trigger rates on 7 and 8 TeV Monte Carlo samples with the data taken in the past two years. The effect of 25 ns bunch spacing is being studied on the d...


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith

    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software The road map for the final commissioning of the level-1 trigger system has been set. The software for the trigger subsystems is being upgraded to run under CERN Scientific Linux 4 (SLC4). There is also a new release for the Trigger Supervisor (TS 1.4), which implies upgrade work by the subsystems. As reported by the CERN group, a campaign to tidy the Trigger Timing and Control (TTC) racks has begun. The machine interface was upgraded by installing the new RF2TTC module, which receives RF signals from LHC Point 4. Two Beam Synchronous Timing (BST) signals, one for each beam, can now be received in CMS. The machine group will define the exact format of the information content shortly. The margin on the locking range of the CMS QPLL is planned for study for different subsystems in the next Global Runs, using a function generator. The TTC software has been successfully tested on SLC4. Some TTC subsystems have already been upgraded to SLC4. The TTCci Trigger Supervisor ...

  4. Assessing Impacts of National Scale Droughts on Cereal Production (United States)

    Udmale, P. D.; Ichikawa, Y.


    Till date, several drought indices have been developed and used to monitor local to regional scale droughts on various temporal scales. However, there are no generalized criteria to define a threshold to declare a national level drought using drought indices. EM-DAT (a global database on natural and technological disasters) lists disasters (including drought) from 1900 until the present confirming one of the following criteria: 10 or more people dead; 100 or more people affected; the declaration of a state of emergency; or a call for international assistance. This data is gathered from various organizations like United Nations Institutes, Governments, etc. and do not cover all disasters or have political limitations that could affect the numbers. These criteria are neither objective nor quantitative, and accordingly may cause uncertainties when the data is used for further investigation on disaster impacts. Here we present a methodology to define drought at a national scale and its impacts on national level crop production (mainly cereals). We define drought based on the percentage of cropland area affected by drought in a country during its seasonal rainfall. For this purpose meteorological definition of drought in combination with country's cropland area is proposed to prepare a drought inventory for major cereal producing countries (1902-2012). This drought inventory together with FAO's Crop data is used to identify the impacts of drought on a national level cereal production (and yield) using Superposed Epoch Analysis for the period 1961-2012.

  5. The 2009/2010 Caribbean drought: a case study. (United States)

    Peters, Everson J


    The impacts of drought in the Caribbean have not been as dramatic as in some other parts of world, but it is not exempt from the experiences of drought. As a result of the effects of a prolonged drought in 2009/2010, the agenda for the 21st Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) paid particular attention to the issue of drought. This paper reviews the management framework for responding to drought disasters in five CARICOM countries. The paper also reports on some of the effects of the 2009/2010 drought with particular reference to Grenada and the Grenadines. During the drought in these islands there were numerous bush fires with devastating effects on agriculture, severe water shortages that impacted on the tourism industry and other social effects. It is evident that there was inadequate preparation for the event. Greater planning and investment are therefore required to reduce future impacts. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  6. Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zou


    Full Text Available Long records (1960–2013 of monthly streamflow observations from 8 hydrological stations in the East Asian monsoon region are modeled using a nonstationarity framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS. Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarity of monthly streamflow series in different geographic regions and to select optimal distribution among five two-parameter distributions (Gamma, Lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistic. Based on the optimal nonstationarity distribution, a time-dependent Standardized Streamflow Index (denoted SSIvar that takes account of the possible nonstationarity in streamflow series is constructed and then employed to identify drought characteristics at different time scales (at a 3-month scale and a 12-month scale in the eight selected catchments during 1960–2013 for comparison. Results of GAMLSS models indicate that they are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the monthly streamflow series with distribution parameters that are a linear function of time. For 8 hydrological stations in different geographic regions, a noticeable difference is observed between the historical drought assessment of Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI and SSIvar, indicating that the nonstationarity could not be ignored in the hydrological drought analyses, especially for stations with change point and significant change trends. The constructed SSIvar is, to some extent, found to be more reliable and suitable for regional drought monitoring than traditional SSI in a changing environment, thereby providing a feasible alternative for drought forecasting and water resource management at different time scales.

  7. Anatomy of a local-scale drought: Application of assimilated remote sensing products, crop model, and statistical methods to an agricultural drought study (United States)

    Mishra, Ashok K.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Das, Narendra N.; Prakash Khedun, C.; Singh, Vijay P.; Sivakumar, Bellie; Hansen, James W.


    Drought is of global concern for society but it originates as a local problem. It has a significant impact on water quantity and quality and influences food, water, and energy security. The consequences of drought vary in space and time, from the local scale (e.g. county level) to regional scale (e.g. state or country level) to global scale. Within the regional scale, there are multiple socio-economic impacts (i.e., agriculture, drinking water supply, and stream health) occurring individually or in combination at local scales, either in clusters or scattered. Even though the application of aggregated drought information at the regional level has been useful in drought management, the latter can be further improved by evaluating the structure and evolution of a drought at the local scale. This study addresses a local-scale agricultural drought anatomy in Story County in Iowa, USA. This complex problem was evaluated using assimilated AMSR-E soil moisture and MODIS-LAI data into a crop model to generate surface and sub-surface drought indices to explore the anatomy of an agricultural drought. Quantification of moisture supply in the root zone remains a gray area in research community, this challenge can be partly overcome by incorporating assimilation of soil moisture and leaf area index into crop modeling framework for agricultural drought quantification, as it performs better in simulating crop yield. It was noted that the persistence of subsurface droughts is in general higher than surface droughts, which can potentially improve forecast accuracy. It was found that both surface and subsurface droughts have an impact on crop yields, albeit with different magnitudes, however, the total water available in the soil profile seemed to have a greater impact on the yield. Further, agricultural drought should not be treated equal for all crops, and it should be calculated based on the root zone depth rather than a fixed soil layer depth. We envisaged that the results of

  8. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Liu


    Full Text Available The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia. Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk

  9. The SPEIbase: a new gridded product for the analysis of drought variability and drought impacts (United States)

    Begueria-Portugues, S.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; López-Moreno, J. I.; Angulo-Martínez, M.; El Kenawy, A.


    Recently a new drought indicator, the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), has been proposed to quantify the drought condition over a given area. The SPEI considers not only precipitation but also evapotranspiration (PET) data on its calculation, allowing for a more complete approach to explore the effects of climate change on drought conditions. The SPEI can be calculated at several time scales to adapt to the characteristic times of response to drought of target natural and economic systems, allowing determining their resistance to drought. Following the formulation of the SPEI a global dataset, the SPEIbase, has been made available to the scientific community. The dataset covers the period 1901-2006 with a monthly frequency, and offers global coverage at a 0.5 degrees resolution. The dataset consists on the monthly values of the SPEI at the time scales from 1 to 48 months. A description of the data and metadata, and links to download the files, are provided at On this communication we will detail the methodology for computing the SPEI and the characteristics of the SPEIbase. A thorough discussion of the SPEI index, and some examples of use, will be provided in a companion comunication.

  10. The transcriptional regulatory network in the drought response and its crosstalk in abiotic stress responses including drought, cold, and heat


    Nakashima, Kazuo; Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, Kazuko; Shinozaki, Kazuo


    Drought negatively impacts plant growth and the productivity of crops around the world. Understanding the molecular mechanisms in the drought response is important for improvement of drought tolerance using molecular techniques. In plants, abscisic acid (ABA) is accumulated under osmotic stress conditions caused by drought, and has a key role in stress responses and tolerance. Comprehensive molecular analyses have shown that ABA regulates the expression of many genes under osmotic stress cond...

  11. Application of Dynamic naïve Bayesian classifier to comprehensive drought assessment (United States)

    Park, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, J. H.; KIm, T. W.


    Drought monitoring has already been extensively studied due to the widespread impacts and complex causes of drought. The most important component of drought monitoring is to estimate the characteristics and extent of drought by quantitatively measuring the characteristics of drought. Drought assessment considering different aspects of the complicated drought condition and uncertainty of drought index is great significance in accurate drought monitoring. This study used the dynamic Naïve Bayesian Classifier (DNBC) which is an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), to model and classify drought by using various drought indices for integrated drought assessment. To provide a stable model for combined use of multiple drought indices, this study employed the DNBC to perform multi-index drought assessment by aggregating the effect of different type of drought and considering the inherent uncertainty. Drought classification was performed by the DNBC using several drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI)) that reflect meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics. Overall results showed that in comparison unidirectional (SPI, SDI, and NVSWI) or multivariate (Composite Drought Index, CDI) drought assessment, the proposed DNBC was able to synthetically classify of drought considering uncertainty. Model provided method for comprehensive drought assessment with combined use of different drought indices.

  12. Defining Drought Characteristics for Natural Resource Management (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Senay, G. B.; McNeeley, S.; Morisette, J. T.


    In the north central region of the US, on-going drought studies are investigating factors determining how drought impacts various ecosystem services and challenge natural resource management decisions. The effort reported here stems from research sponsored by the USGS North Central Climate Science Center, to deal with ecosystem response to drought with the goal to see if there are indicators of drought emerging from the ecosystem interactions with various weather patterns, soil moisture dynamics, and the structural aspects of the ecosystem in question. The North Central domain covers a region from the headwaters of the Missouri River Basin to the northern Great Plains. Using spatial and temporal analysis of remote sensing products and mechanistic daily time-step ecosystem model simulations across the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies, analysis of recent drought conditions over the region will be provided. Drought characteristics will be analyzed related to resource management targets, such as water supply, landscape productivity, or habitat needs for key species. Analysis of ecosystem and landscape patterns of drought relative to net primary productivity, surface temperatures, soil moisture content, evaporation, transpiration, and water use efficiency from 2000 through 2014 will be analyzed for different drought and non-drought events. Comparisons between satellite-derived ET and NPP of different Great Plains ecosystems related to simulated ET and NPP will be presented. These comparisons provide indications of the role that soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge and rooting depth of different ecosystems have on determining the sensitivity to water stress due to seasonal warming and reduced precipitation across the region. In addition, indications that average annual rainfall levels over certain ecosystems may result in reduced production due to higher rates of water demand under the observed warmer temperatures and the prolonged warming in the spring


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. Perez


    Full Text Available A monitoring and forecasting sytem is developed to assess the extent and severity of agricultural droughts in the Philippines at various spacial scales and across different time periods. Using Earth observation satellite data, drought index, hazard and vulnerability maps are created. The drought index, called Standardized Vegetation-Temperature Ratio (SVTR, is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and Land Surface Temperature (LST. SVTR is evaluated by correlating its values with existing agricultural drought index, particulary Evaporative Stress Index (ESI. Moreover, the performance of SVTR in detecting drought occurrences was assessed for the 2015-2016 drought event. This period is a strong El Niño year and a large portion of the country was affected by drought at varying degrees, making it a good case study for evaluating drought indices. Satellitederived SVTR was validated through several field visits and surveys across different major agricultural areas in the country, and was found to be 73% accurate. The drought hazard and vulnerability maps are produced by utilizing the evapotranspration product of MODIS, rainfall climatology from the Tropical Rainfall Microwave Mission (TRMM and ancillary data, including irrigation, water holding capacity and land use. Finally, we used statistical techniques to determine trends in NDVI and LST and generate a sixmonth forecast of drought index. Outputs of this study are being assessed by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA and the Department of Agriculture Bureau of Soils and Water Management (DABSWM for future integration in their operations.

  14. Study of electromagnetic wave scattering by periodic density irregularities in plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyle, R.; Kuo, S.P.; Huang, J.


    A quasi-particle approach is used to formulate wave propagation and scattering in a periodically structured plasma. The theory is then applied to study the effect of bottomside sinusoidal (BSS) irregularities on the propagation of beacon satellites signals through the ionosphere. In this approach, the radio wave is treated as a distribution of quasi-particles described by a Wigner distribution function governed by a transport equation. The irregularities providing the collisional effect are modeled as a two dimensional density modulation on a uniform background plasma. The present work generalizes the previous work by including the spectral bandwidth (Δk/k) effect of the spatially periodic irregularities on the transionospheric signal propagation. The collision of quasi-particles with the irregularities modifies the quasi-particle distribution and give rise to the wave scattering phenomenon. The multiple scattering process is generally considered in this deterministic analysis of radio wave scattering off the ionospheric density irregularities. The analysis shows that this two dimensional density grating effectively modulates the intensity of the beacon satellite signals. This spatial modulation of the wave intensity is converted into time modulation due to the drift of the ionospheric irregularities, which then results in the scintillation of the beacon satellite signals

  15. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia


    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  16. Phenotypic Approaches to Drought in Cassava: Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel eOkogbenin


    Full Text Available Cassava is an important crop in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. Cassava can be produced adequately in drought conditions making it the ideal food security crop in marginal environments. Although cassava can tolerate drought stress, it can be genetically improved to enhance productivity in such environments. Drought adaptation studies in over three decades in cassava have identified relevant mechanisms which have been explored in conventional breeding. Drought is a quantitative trait and its multigenic nature makes it very challenging to effectively manipulate and combine genes in breeding for rapid genetic gain and selection process. Cassava has a long growth cycle of 12 - 18 months which invariably contributes to a long breeding scheme for the crop. Modern breeding using advances in genomics and improved genotyping, is facilitating the dissection and genetic analysis of complex traits including drought tolerance, thus helping to better elucidate and understand the genetic basis of such traits. A beneficial goal of new innovative breeding strategies is to shorten the breeding cycle using minimized, efficient or fast phenotyping protocols. While high throughput genotyping have been achieved, this is rarely the case for phenotyping for drought adaptation. Some of the storage root phenotyping in cassava are often done very late in the evaluation cycle making selection process very slow. This paper highlights some modified traits suitable for early-growth phase phenotyping that may be used to reduce drought phenotyping cycle in cassava. Such modified traits can significantly complement the high throughput genotyping procedures to fast track breeding of improved drought tolerant varieties. The need for metabolite profiling, improved phenomics to take advantage of next generation sequencing technologies and high throughput phenotyping are basic steps for future direction to improve genetic gain and maximize speed for drought tolerance

  17. Effects of drought on avian community structure (United States)

    Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Brian D. Wardlow; Volker C. Radeloff


    Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioural traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most...

  18. Is drought helping or killing dengue? Investigation of spatiotemporal relationship between dengue fever and drought (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung


    Dengue Fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted between human and mosquitos in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Previous studies have found significant relationship between the epidemic of dengue cases and climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. Besides, the natural phenomena (e.g., drought) are considered that significantly drop the number of dengue cases by killing vector's breeding environment. However, in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, there are evidences that the temporal pattern of dengue is correlated to drought events. Kaohsiung City experienced two main dengue outbreaks in 2002 and 2014 that both years were confirmed with serious drought. Especially in 2014, Kaohsiung City was suffered from extremely dengue outbreak in 2014 that reported the highest number of dengue cases in the history. This study constructs the spatiotemporal model of dengue incidences and index of drought events (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Other meteorological measures are also included in the analysis.

  19. Crime among irregular immigrants and the influence of internal border control


    Leerkes, Arjen; Engbersen, Godfried; Leun, Joanne


    textabstractBoth the number of crime suspects without legal status and the number of irregular or undocumented immigrants held in detention facilities increased substantially in theNetherlands between 1997 and 2003. In this period, theDutch state increasingly attempted to exclude irregular immigrants from the formal labour market and public provisions. At the same time the registered crime among irregular migrants rose. The 'marginalisation thesis' asserts that a larger number of migrants hav...

  20. Drought and submergence tolerance in plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, Hewei; Zhou, Yufan; Oksenberg, Nir; Ronald, Pamela


    The invention provides methods of genetically modified plants to increase tolerance to drought and/or submergence. The invention additionally provides plants having increased drought and/or submergence tolerance engineered using such methods.

  1. Identification of the influencing factors on groundwater drought in Bangladesh (United States)

    Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Huysmans, Marijke


    Groundwater drought is a specific type of drought that concerns groundwater bodies. It may have a significant adverse effect on the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions. Investigating the effect of response different climatic and manmade factors on groundwater drought provides essential information for sustainable planning and management of water resources. The aim of this study is to identify the influencing factors on groundwater drought in a drought prone region in Bangladesh to understand the forcing mechanisms. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) have been used to quantify the aggregated deficit between precipitation and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. The influence of land use patterns on the groundwater drought has been identified by calculating spatially distributed groundwater recharge as a function of land use. The result shows that drought intensity is more severe during the dry season (November to April) compared to the rainy season (May to October). The evapotranspiration and rainfall deficit has a significant effect on meteorological drought which has a direct relation with groundwater drought. Urbanization results in a decrease of groundwater recharge which increases groundwater drought severity. Overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation and recurrent meteorological droughts are the main causes of groundwater drought in the study area. Efficient irrigation management is essential to reduce the growing pressure on groundwater resources and ensure sustainable water management. More detailed studies on climate change and land use change effects on groundwater drought are recommended. Keywords: Groundwater drought, SPI & RDI, Spatially distributed groundwater recharge, Irrigation, Bangladesh

  2. The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li; Li Jing; Xiao Jingfeng; Wang Kun; Lei Liping; Guo Huadong


    Many parts of the world experience frequent and severe droughts. Summer drought can significantly reduce primary productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. The impacts of spring droughts, however, have received much less attention. A severe and sustained spring drought occurred in southwestern China in 2010. Here we examine the influence of this spring drought on the primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems using data on climate, vegetation greenness and productivity. We first assess the spatial extent, duration and severity of the drought using precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index. We then examine the impacts of the drought on terrestrial ecosystems using satellite data for the period 2000–2010. Our results show that the spring drought substantially reduced the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) during spring 2010 (March–May). Both EVI and GPP also substantially declined in the summer and did not fully recover from the drought stress until August. The drought reduced regional annual GPP and net primary productivity (NPP) in 2010 by 65 and 46 Tg C yr −1 , respectively. Both annual GPP and NPP in 2010 were the lowest over the period 2000–2010. The negative effects of the drought on annual primary productivity were partly offset by the remarkably high productivity in August and September caused by the exceptionally wet conditions in late summer and early fall and the farming practices adopted to mitigate drought effects. Our results show that, like summer droughts, spring droughts can also have significant impacts on vegetation productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling. (letter)

  3. Drought-induced legacy effects in wood growth across the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. are mediated by site climate, tree age, and drought sensitivity (United States)

    Kannenberg, S.; Maxwell, J. T.; Pederson, N.; D'Orangeville, L.; Phillips, R.


    While it is widely known that drought reduces carbon (C) uptake in temperate forests, tree growth can also remain stagnant post-drought despite favorable climatic conditions. While such "legacy effects" are well established, the degree to which these effects depend on species identity or variability in site conditions is poorly quantified. We sought to uncover how site, species, climate, and tree age interact to affect the presence and magnitude of legacy effects in temperate trees following drought. To do this, we assembled dendrochronological records of 18 common species across 94 sites in Eastern and Midwestern U.S. forests and quantified drought-induced changes in wood growth in the year of the drought (hereafter "drought sensitivity") and the years after the drought (i.e., legacy effects). We predicted that species particularly prone to hydraulic damage (e.g., oaks) would have the least drought sensitivity yet experience larger legacy effects, and that this effect would be exacerbated at arid sites. Across all species and sites, wood growth was reduced by 14% in the year of the drought and by 7% post-drought. Surprisingly, legacy effects were smaller for oak species and larger across species known to be more drought sensitive (e.g. tulip poplar, maple, birch). As a result, we observed a positive relationship between a species' drought sensitivity and that species' legacy effect. These legacy effects were similar in size across a range of drought severities. Surprisingly, legacy effects were smaller in more arid sites - contrary to previous investigations in dryland ecosystems - perhaps indicating the role of adaptation in mediating a tree's recovery from drought. In addition, many species actually decreased the size of their legacy effects as they aged, despite no change in drought responses. Our results run contrary to our predictions, as species with the greatest drought sensitivity had the least ability to recover, and that younger mesic forests- not arid

  4. Spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the tropical Paraiba do Sul River Basin and responses to the Mega Drought in 2014-2016 (United States)

    Nauditt, Alexandra; Metzke, Daniel; Ribbe, Lars


    The Paraiba do Sul River Basin (56.000 km2) supplies water to the Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Their large metropolitan areas were strongly affected by a Mega drought during the years 2014 and 2015 with severe implications for domestic water supply, the hydropower sector as well as for rural agricultural downstream regions. Longer drought periods are expected to become more frequent in the future. However, drought characteristics, low flow hydrology and the reasons for the recurrent water scarcity in this water abundant tropical region are still poorly understood. In order to separate the impact of human abstractions from hydro-climatic and catchment storage related hydrological drought propagation, we assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of drought severity and duration establishing relationships between SPI, SRI and discharge threshold drought anomalies for all subcatchments of the PdS based on a comprehensive hydro-meteorological data set of the Brazilian National Water Agency ANA. The water allocation model "Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)" was established on a monthly basis for the entire Paraiba do Sul river basin incorporating human modifications of the hydrological system as major (hydropower) reservoirs and their operational rules, water diversions and major abstractions. It simulates reasonable discharges and reservoir levels comparable to the observed values. To evaluate the role of climate variability and drought responses for hydrological drought events, scenarios were developed to simulate discharge and reservoir level the impact of 1. Varying meteorological drought frequencies and durations and 2. Implementing operational rules as a response to drought. Uncertainties related to the drought assessment, modelling, parameter and input data were assessed. The outcome of this study for the first time provides an overview on the heterogeneous spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the Paraiba do Sul river basin and

  5. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  6. Exploring the linkage between drought, high temperatures, and hydrologic sensitivities: A case study of the 2012 Great Plains drought. (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.


    The occurrence of drought is associated with agricultural loss, water supply shortfalls, and other economic impacts. Here we explore the physical relationships between precipitation deficits, high temperatures, and hydrologic responses as a pathway to better anticipate drought impacts. Current methodologies to predict hydrologic scarcity include local monitoring of river flows, remote sensing of land-surface wetness, drought indices, expert judgment, climate indices (e.g. SST-relationships) and the application of hydrologic models. At longer lead times, predictions of drought have most frequently been made on the basis of GCM ensembles, with subsequent downscaling of those to scales over which hydrologic predictions can be made. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought. First, we explore the causal hydro-climatic timeline of a drought event, namely (a) the lack of precipitation, which serves to reduce soil moisture and produce (b) a skewed Bowen ratio, i.e. comparatively more sensible heating (warming) with less ET, resulting in (c) anomalously warm conditions. We seek to assess the extent to which the lack of precipitation contributes to warming temperatures, and the further effects of that warming on hydrology and the severity of drought impacts. An ensemble of GCM simulations will be used to explore the evolution of the land surface energy budget during a recent Great Plains drought event, which will subsequently be used to drive a hydrologic model. Second, we examine the impacts of the critical assumptions relating climatic variables with water demand, specifically the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature. The common oversimplification in relating PET to temperature is explored against a more physically consistent energy balance estimate of PET, using the Penman-Monteith approach and the hydrologic impacts are presented. Results from this work are anticipated to have broad relevance for future water management

  7. Measurements of electron density irregularities in the ionosphere of Jupiter by Pioneer 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, R.; Yang, F.


    In this paper we demonstrate that when the frequency spectrum of the log amplitude fluctuations is used, the radio occultation experiment is a powerful tool for detecting, identifying, and studying ionospheric irregularities. Analysis of the Pioneer 10 radio occultation measurements reveals that the Jovian ionosphere possesses electron density irregularities which are very similar to those found in the earth's ionosphere. This is the first time such irregularities have been found in a planetary ionosphere other than that of earth. The Pioneer 10 results indicate that the spatial wave number spectrum of the electron density irregularities is close to the Kolmogorov spectrum and that the outer scale size is greater than the Fresnel size (6.15 km). This type of spectrum suggests that the irregularities are probably produced by the turbulent dissipation of irregularities larger than the outer scale size

  8. Tolerance to drought and salt stress in plants: Unraveling the signaling networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dortje eGolldack


    Full Text Available Tolerance of plants to abiotic stressors such as drought and salinity is triggered by complex multicomponent signaling pathways to restore cellular homeostasis and promote survival. Major plant transcription factor families such as bZIP, NAC, AP2/ERF and MYB orchestrate regulatory networks underlying abiotic stress tolerance. Sucrose nonfermenting 1-related protein kinase 2 (SnRK2 and MAPK pathways contribute to initiation of stress adaptive downstream responses and promote plant growth and development. As a convergent point of multiple abiotic cues, cellular effects of environmental stresses are not only imbalances of ionic and osmotic homeostasis but also impaired photosynthesis, cellular energy depletion, and redox imbalances. Recent evidence of regulatory systems that link sensing and signaling of environmental conditions and the intracellular redox status have shed light on interfaces of stress and energy signaling. ROS (reactive oxygen species cause severe cellular damage by peroxidation and de-esterification of membrane lipids, however, current models also define a pivotal signaling function of ROS in triggering tolerance against stress. Recent research advances suggest and support a regulatory role of ROS in the cross talks of stress triggered hormonal signaling such as the abscisic acid (ABA pathway and endogenously induced redox and metabolite signals. Here, we discuss and review the versatile molecular convergence in the abiotic stress responsive signaling networks in the context of ROS and lipid derived signals and the specific role of stomatal signaling.

  9. Drought assessment by evapotranspiration mapping in Twente (United States)

    Eden, U.; Timmermans, J.; van der Velde, R.; Su, Z.


    Drought is a reoccurring worldwide problem with impacts ranging from food production to infrastructure. Droughts are different from other natural hazards (floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes) because the effects can only be witnessed slowly and with a time delay. Effects of droughts are diverse, like famine and migration of people. Droughts are caused by natural causes but also by interaction between the natural events and water demand. Not only typical dry regions, like the Horn of Africa, are affected, but even semi-humid environments, like Europe. Temperature rise and precipitation deficit in the summers of 2003 and 2006 caused substantial crop losses in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands. In addition increased river water temperatures and low water levels caused cooling problems for power plants. Heat waves and prolonged absence of precipitation is expected to increase due to climate change. Therefore assessing and monitoring drought in the Netherlands is thus very important. Various drought indices are available to assess the severity, duration and spatial extend of the drought. Some of the commonly indices used are Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). However each of these indices do not take into account the actual state of the land surface in respect to the dryness. By analysing drought through actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimations from remote sensing this can be circumvented. The severity of the droughts was quantified by ET-mapping from 2003-2010. The assessment was based on the spatial and temporal distribution of ET using the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) drought index. Surface energy fluxes, like ET, were estimated using WACMOS methodology. The input data consisted of remote sensing products like land surface temperature, LAI, and albedo from MODIS; and meteorological data like air-temperature, humidity and wind speed from the European Centre for Medium weather forecast (ECMWF

  10. The potential of SMAP soil moisture data for analyzing droughts (United States)

    Rajasekaran, E.; Das, N. N.; Entekhabi, D.; Yueh, S. H.


    Identification of the onset and the end of droughts are important for socioeconomic planning. Different datasets and tools are either available or being generated for drought analysis to recognize the status of drought. The aim of this study is to understand the potential of the SMAP soil moisture (SM) data for identification of onset, persistence and withdrawal of droughts over the Contiguous United States. We are using the SMAP-passive level 3 soil moisture observations and the United States Drought Monitor ( data for understanding the relation between change in SM and drought severity. The daily observed SM data are temporally averaged to match the weekly drought monitor data and subsequently the weekly, monthly, 3 monthly and 6 monthly change in SM and drought severity were estimated. The analyses suggested that the change in SM and drought severity are correlated especially over the mid-west and west coast of USA at monthly and longer time scales. The spatial pattern of the SM change maps clearly indicated the regions that are moving between different levels of drought severity. Further, the time series of effective saturation [Se =(θ-θr)/(θs-θr)] indicated the temporal dynamics of drought conditions over California which is recovering from a long-term drought. Additional analyses are being carried out to develop statistics between drought severity and soil moisture level.

  11. A hot future for European droughts (United States)

    Teuling, Adriaan J.


    Low soil moisture conditions can induce drought but also elevate temperatures. Detailed modelling of the drought-temperature link now shows that rising global temperature will bring drier soils and higher heatwave temperatures in Europe.

  12. Temporal Changes in Community Resilience to Drought Hazard (United States)

    Mihunov, V.


    The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.

  13. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada. (United States)

    Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; J Cheng, June; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth


    Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

  14. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada (United States)

    Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; Cheng, June J.; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth


    Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health. PMID:26193300

  15. Groundwater potential for water supply during droughts in Korea (United States)

    Hyun, Y.; Cha, E.; Moon, H. J.


    Droughts have been receiving much attention in Korea because severe droughts occurred in recent years, causing significant social, economic and environmental damages in some regions. Residents in agricultural area, most of all, were most damaged by droughts with lack of available water supplies to meet crop water demands. In order to mitigate drought damages, we present a strategy to keep from agricultural droughts by using groundwater to meet water supply as a potential water resource in agricultural areas. In this study, we analyze drought severity and the groundwater potential to mitigate social and environmental damages caused by droughts in Korea. We evaluate drought severity by analyzing spatial and temporal meteorological and hydrological data such as rainfall, water supply and demand. For drought severity, we use effective drought index along with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index(SRI). Water deficit during the drought period is also quantified to consider social and environmental impact of droughts. Then we assess the feasibility of using groundwater as a potential source for groundwater impact mitigation. Results show that the agricultural areas are more vulnerable to droughts and use of groundwater as an emergency water resource is feasible in some regions. For a case study, we select Jeong-Sun area located in Kangwon providence having well-developed Karst aquifers and surrounded by mountains. For Jeong-Sun area, we quantify groundwater potential use, design the method of water supply by using groundwater, and assess its economic benefit. Results show that water supply system with groundwater abstraction can be a good strategy when droughts are severe for an emergency water supply in Jeong-Sun area, and groundwater can also be used not only for a dry season water supply resource, but for everyday water supply system. This case study results can further be applicable to some regions with no sufficient water

  16. Drought monitoring with soil moisture active passive (SMAP) measurements (United States)

    Mishra, Ashok; Vu, Tue; Veettil, Anoop Valiya; Entekhabi, Dara


    Recent launch of space-borne systems to estimate surface soil moisture may expand the capability to map soil moisture deficit and drought with global coverage. In this study, we use Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture geophysical retrieval products from passive L-band radiometer to evaluate its applicability to forming agricultural drought indices. Agricultural drought is quantified using the Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) based on SMAP and soil properties (field capacity and available water content) information. The soil properties are computed using pedo-transfer function with soil characteristics derived from Harmonized World Soil Database. The SMAP soil moisture product needs to be rescaled to be compatible with the soil parameters derived from the in situ stations. In most locations, the rescaled SMAP information captured the dynamics of in situ soil moisture well and shows the expected lag between accumulations of precipitation and delayed increased in surface soil moisture. However, the SMAP soil moisture itself does not reveal the drought information. Therefore, the SMAP based SWDI (SMAP_SWDI) was computed to improve agriculture drought monitoring by using the latest soil moisture retrieval satellite technology. The formulation of SWDI does not depend on longer data and it will overcome the limited (short) length of SMAP data for agricultural drought studies. The SMAP_SWDI is further compared with in situ Atmospheric Water Deficit (AWD) Index. The comparison shows close agreement between SMAP_SWDI and AWD in drought monitoring over Contiguous United States (CONUS), especially in terms of drought characteristics. The SMAP_SWDI was used to construct drought maps for CONUS and compared with well-known drought indices, such as, AWD, Palmer Z-Index, sc-PDSI and SPEI. Overall the SMAP_SWDI is an effective agricultural drought indicator and it provides continuity and introduces new spatial mapping capability for drought monitoring. As an

  17. The National Study of Water Management During Drought; The New England Drought Study: Trigger Planning: Intergrating Strategic, Tactical, and Emergency Planning into a Single Water Resources Management Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Joyce, Charles


    The report documents the consensus of a study team which developed an application of Trigger Planning for enhancing MWRA's decision making for ensuring that future water sources are adequate to meet...

  18. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. (United States)

    von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard


    To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

  19. Relationships between drought, heat and air humidity responses revealed by transcriptome-metabolome co-analysis. (United States)

    Georgii, Elisabeth; Jin, Ming; Zhao, Jin; Kanawati, Basem; Schmitt-Kopplin, Philippe; Albert, Andreas; Winkler, J Barbro; Schäffner, Anton R


    Elevated temperature and reduced water availability are frequently linked abiotic stresses that may provoke distinct as well as interacting molecular responses. Based on non-targeted metabolomic and transcriptomic measurements from Arabidopsis rosettes, this study aims at a systematic elucidation of relevant components in different drought and heat scenarios as well as relationships between molecular players of stress response. In combined drought-heat stress, the majority of single stress responses are maintained. However, interaction effects between drought and heat can be discovered as well; these relate to protein folding, flavonoid biosynthesis and growth inhibition, which are enhanced, reduced or specifically induced in combined stress, respectively. Heat stress experiments with and without supplementation of air humidity for maintenance of vapor pressure deficit suggest that decreased relative air humidity due to elevated temperature is an important component of heat stress, specifically being responsible for hormone-related responses to water deprivation. Remarkably, this "dry air effect" is the primary trigger of the metabolomic response to heat. In contrast, the transcriptomic response has a substantial temperature component exceeding the dry air component and including up-regulation of many transcription factors and protein folding-related genes. Data level integration independent of prior knowledge on pathways and condition labels reveals shared drought and heat responses between transcriptome and metabolome, biomarker candidates and co-regulation between genes and metabolic compounds, suggesting novel players in abiotic stress response pathways. Drought and heat stress interact both at transcript and at metabolite response level. A comprehensive, non-targeted view of this interaction as well as non-interacting processes is important to be taken into account when improving tolerance to abiotic stresses in breeding programs. Transcriptome and metabolome

  20. Influence of soil drought stress on photosynthesis, carbohydrates ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Aug 16, 2010 ... and the ability of plant to adapt to drought stress. (Bulbotko, 1973; Atkinson et ... drought stress. In general, little is known about the effects of soil drought ..... fluorescence, water relations, and leaf abscisic acid. Plant Physiol.

  1. Influence of initial stress, irregularity and heterogeneity on Love-type ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present paper deals with the propagation of Love-type wave in an initially stressed irregular vertically heterogeneous layer lying over an initially stressed isotropic layer and an initially stressed isotropic half- space. Two different types of irregularities, viz., rectangular and parabolic, are considered at the interface.

  2. Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yuan


    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961–2010 of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118–262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21–99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982–2010 hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11–26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly

  3. How climate seasonality modifies drought duration and deficit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Tijdeman, E.; Wanders, N.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    Drought propagation through the terrestrial hydrological cycle is associated with a change in drought characteristics (duration and deficit), moving from precipitation via soil moisture to discharge. Here we investigate climate controls on drought propagation with a modeling experiment in 1271

  4. The effect of reservoir networks on drought propagation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oel, van P.R.; Martins, E.S.P.R.; Costa, A.C.


    Human interventions in response to drought can both alleviate and enhance drought. Developments of infrastructure for freshwater storage, groundwater abstraction and irrigation have proved to be effective in overcoming meteorological and agricultural drought in many locations worldwide. At the same

  5. Characterizing neural activities evoked by manual acupuncture through spiking irregularity measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Ming; Wang Jiang; Deng Bin; Wei Xi-Le; Yu Hai-Tao; Chen Ying-Yuan


    The neural system characterizes information in external stimulations by different spiking patterns. In order to examine how neural spiking patterns are related to acupuncture manipulations, experiments are designed in such a way that different types of manual acupuncture (MA) manipulations are taken at the ‘Zusanli’ point of experimental rats, and the induced electrical signals in the spinal dorsal root ganglion are detected and recorded. The interspike interval (ISI) statistical histogram is fitted by the gamma distribution, which has two parameters: one is the time-dependent firing rate and the other is a shape parameter characterizing the spiking irregularities. The shape parameter is the measure of spiking irregularities and can be used to identify the type of MA manipulations. The coefficient of variation is mostly used to measure the spike time irregularity, but it overestimates the irregularity in the case of pronounced firing rate changes. However, experiments show that each acupuncture manipulation will lead to changes in the firing rate. So we combine four relatively rate-independent measures to study the irregularity of spike trains evoked by different types of MA manipulations. Results suggest that the MA manipulations possess unique spiking statistics and characteristics and can be distinguished according to the spiking irregularity measures. These studies have offered new insights into the coding processes and information transfer of acupuncture. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  6. Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts ...

  7. Advances in electron dosimetry of irregular fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendez V, J.


    In this work it is presented an advance in Electron dosimetry of irregular fields for beams emitted by linear accelerators. At present diverse methods exist which are coming to apply in the Radiotherapy centers. In this work it is proposed a method for irregular fields dosimetry. It will be allow to calculate the dose rate absorbed required for evaluating the time for the treatment of cancer patients. Utilizing the results obtained by the dosimetric system, it has been possible to prove the validity of the method describe for 12 MeV energy and for square field 7.5 x 7.5 cm 2 with percentile error less than 1 % . (Author)

  8. New Model for Ionospheric Irregularities at Mars (United States)

    Keskinen, M. J.


    A new model for ionospheric irregularities at Mars is presented. It is shown that wind-driven currents in the dynamo region of the Martian ionosphere can be unstable to the electromagnetic gradient drift instability. This plasma instability can generate ionospheric density and magnetic field irregularities with scale sizes of approximately 15-20 km down to a few kilometers. We show that the instability-driven magnetic field fluctuation amplitudes relative to background are correlated with the ionospheric density fluctuation amplitudes relative to background. Our results can explain recent observations made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN spacecraft in the Martian ionosphere dynamo region.


    CERN Multimedia

    by Wesley Smith


    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software After the winter shutdown minor hardware problems in several subsystems appeared and were corrected. A reassessment of the overall latency has been made. In the TTC system shorter cables between TTCci and TTCex have been installed, which saved one bunch crossing, but which may have required an adjustment of the RPC timing. In order to tackle Pixel out-of-syncs without influencing other subsystems, a special hardware/firmware re-sync protocol has been introduced in the Global Trigger. The link between the Global Calorimeter Trigger and the Global Trigger with the new optical Global Trigger Interface and optical receiver daughterboards has been successfully tested in the Electronics Integration Centre in building 904. New firmware in the GCT now allows a setting to remove the HF towers from energy sums. The HF sleeves have been replaced, which should lead to reduced rates of anomalous signals, which may allow their inclusion after this is validated. For ECAL, improvements i...


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith from contributions of C. Leonidopoulos


    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software Since nearly all of the Level-1 (L1) Trigger hardware at Point 5 has been commissioned, activities during the past months focused on the fine-tuning of synchronization, particularly for the ECAL and the CSC systems, on firmware upgrades and on improving trigger operation and monitoring. Periodic resynchronizations or hard resets and a shortened luminosity section interval of 23 seconds were implemented. For the DT sector collectors, an automatic power-off was installed in case of high temperatures, and the monitoring capabilities of the opto-receivers and the mini-crates were enhanced. The DTTF and the CSCTF now have improved memory lookup tables. The HCAL trigger primitive logic implemented a new algorithm providing better stability of the energy measurement in the presence of any phase misalignment. For the Global Calorimeter Trigger, additional Source Cards have been manufactured and tested. Testing of the new tau, missing ET and missing HT algorithms is underw...

  11. Field Phenotyping of Soybean Roots for Drought Stress Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berhanu A. Fenta


    Full Text Available Root architecture was determined together with shoot parameters under well watered and drought conditions in the field in three soybean cultivars (A5409RG, Jackson and Prima 2000. Morphology parameters were used to classify the cultivars into different root phenotypes that could be important in conferring drought tolerance traits. A5409RG is a drought-sensitive cultivar with a shallow root phenotype and a root angle of <40°. In contrast, Jackson is a drought-escaping cultivar. It has a deep rooting phenotype with a root angle of >60°. Prima 2000 is an intermediate drought-tolerant cultivar with a root angle of 40°–60°. It has an intermediate root phenotype. Prima 2000 was the best performing cultivar under drought stress, having the greatest shoot biomass and grain yield under limited water availability. It had abundant root nodules even under drought conditions. A positive correlation was observed between nodule size, above-ground biomass and seed yield under well-watered and drought conditions. These findings demonstrate that root system phenotyping using markers that are easy-to-apply under field conditions can be used to determine genotypic differences in drought tolerance in soybean. The strong association between root and nodule parameters and whole plant productivity demonstrates the potential application of simple root phenotypic markers in screening for drought tolerance in soybean.

  12. An extended multivariate framework for drought monitoring in Mexico (United States)

    Real-Rangel, Roberto; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Breña-Naranjo, Agustín; Alcocer-Yamanaka, Víctor


    Around the world, monitoring natural hazards, such as droughts, represents a critical task in risk assessment and management plans. A reliable drought monitoring system allows to identify regions affected by these phenomena so that early response measures can be implemented. In Mexico, this activity is performed using Mexico's Drought Monitor, which is based on a similar methodology as the United States Drought Monitor and the North American Drought Monitor. The main feature of these monitoring systems is the combination of ground-based and remote sensing observations that is ultimately validated by local experts. However, in Mexico in situ records of variables such as precipitation and streamflow are often scarce, or even null, in many regions of the country. Another issue that adds uncertainty in drought monitoring is the arbitrary weight given to each analyzed variable. This study aims at providing an operational framework for drought monitoring in Mexico, based on univariate and multivariate nonparametric standardized indexes proposed in recent studies. Furthermore, the framework has been extended by taking into account the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) for the drought severity assessment. The analyzed variables used for computing the drought indexes are mainly derived from remote sensing (MODIS) and land surface models datasets (NASA MERRA-2). A qualitative evaluation of the results shows that the indexes used are capable of adequately describes the intensity and spatial distribution of past drought documented events.

  13. Edge irregular total labellings for graphs of linear size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Stephan; Rautenbach, D.; Miškuf, J.


    As an edge variant of the well-known irregularity strength of a graph G = (V, E) we investigate edge irregular total labellings, i.e. functions f : V ∪ E → {1, 2, ..., k} such that f (u) + f (u v) + f (v) ≠ f (u) + f (u v) + f (v) for every pair of different edges u v, u v ∈ E. The smallest possi...

  14. Drought impacts on cereal yields in Iberia (United States)

    Gouveia, Célia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Russo, Ana; Montero, Irene


    In the present context of climate change, land degradation and desertification it becomes crucial to assess the impact of droughts to determine the environmental consequences of a potential change of climate. Large drought episodes in Iberian Peninsula have widespread ecological and environmental impacts, namely in vegetation dynamics, resulting in significant crop yield losses. During the hydrological years of 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 Iberia was affected by two extreme drought episodes (Garcia-Herrera et al., 2007; Trigo et al., 2013). This work aims to analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of climatic droughts at different time scales using spatially distributed time series of drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This climatic drought index is based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature. We have used CRU TS3 dataset to compute SPEI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Results will be analyzed in terms of the mechanisms that are responsible by these drought events and will also be used to assess the impact of droughts in crops. Accordingly an analysis is performed to evaluate the large-scale conditions required for a particular extreme anomaly of long-range transport of water vapor from the subtropics. We have used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Interim reanalyses, namely, the geopotential height fields, temperature, wind, divergence data and the specific humidity at all pressure levels and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and total column water vapor (TCWV) for the Euro-Atlantic sector (100°W to 50°E, 0°N-70°N) at full temporal (six hourly) and spatial (T255; interpolated to 0.75° regular horizontal grid) resolutions available to analyse the large-scale conditions associated with the drought onset. Our analysis revealed severe impacts on cereals crop productions and yield (namely wheat) for Portugal and

  15. An impact perspective on pan-European drought sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stahl, K.; Kohn, I.; Stefano, De L.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Rego, F.C.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Andreu, J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.


    In the past decades, Europe experienced several severe drought events with diverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The EU FP-7 project DROUGHT R&SPI has investigated past drought impacts across different European countries and geoclimatic regions based on different approaches:

  16. Selection for drought tolerance in two tropical maize populations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought is a major factor limiting maize (Zea mays L.) yield in much of the world. The need to breed maize cultivars with improved drought tolerance is apparent. This study compared two maize populations, ZM601 and ZM607 for drought tolerance during flowering, the most drought-vulnerable period for the maize plant.

  17. Extreme drought decouples silicon and carbon geochemical linkages in lakes. (United States)

    Li, Tianyang; Li, Siyue; Bush, Richard T; Liang, Chuan


    Silicon and carbon geochemical linkages were usually regulated by chemical weathering and organism activity, but had not been investigated under the drought condition, and the magnitude and extent of drought effects remain poorly understood. We collected a comprehensive data set from a total of 13 sampling sites covering the main water body of the largest freshwater lake system in Australia, the Lower Lakes. Changes to water quality during drought (April 2008-September 2010) and post-drought (October 2010-October 2013) were compared to reveal the effects of drought on dissolved silica (DSi) and bicarbonate (HCO 3 - ) and other environmental factors, including sodium (Na + ), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), chlorophyll a (Chl-a), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and water levels. Among the key observations, concentrations of DSi and DIN were markedly lower in drought than in post-drought period while pH, EC and concentrations of HCO 3 - , Na + , Chl-a, TDS, TN, TP and the ratio TN:TP had inverse trends. Stoichiometric ratios of DSi:HCO 3 - , DSi:Na + and HCO 3 - :Na + were significantly lower in the drought period. DSi exhibited significantly negative relationships with HCO 3 - , and DSi:Na + was strongly correlated with HCO 3 - :Na + in both drought and post-drought periods. The backward stepwise regression analysis that could avoid multicollinearity suggested that DSi:HCO 3 - ratio in drought period had significant relationships with fewer variables when compared to the post-drought, and was better predictable using nutrient variables during post-drought. Our results highlight the drought effects on variations of water constituents and point to the decoupling of silicon and carbon geochemical linkages in the Lower Lakes under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Drought early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila


    Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in

  19. Drought Variability in the Eastern Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline; Baker, Patrick


    Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE (Christian Era) 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December-February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50 percent of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.

  20. Climatological aspects of drought in Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, J.C.


    Precipitation and Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI) data have been used to identify past occurrences of Ohio drought, to illustrate the temporal variability occurring statewide within dry periods, and to compare some of the key dry spells to those of 1987-88 and 1991-92. Periods of hydrologic drought and low precipitation generally persist for 2 to 5 years and tend to cluster in time, such as occurred from 1930-1966. It is not uncommon for precipitation to return to normal or near normal conditions while short-term drought persists in terms of streamflow, ground water supply, and runoff, as measured by the PHDI. The period April 1930 to March 1931 is the driest on record in Ohio although longer periods of low precipitation have occurred from 1893-1896, 1952-1955, and 1963-1965. The temporal clusters of droughts are separated by prolonged wet periods, including those extending roughly from 1875-1893, 1905-1924, and 1966-1987. Correlations between Ohio monthly precipitation and mean air temperature suggest that drought is linked to unusually high summer temperatures through mechanisms such as increased evapotranspiration, leading to increased fluxes of sensible heat from dry soil surfaces. In winter, warm conditions tend to favor higher precipitation, soil recharge, and runoff. Variations in mean temperature and atmospheric circulation may also be linked to other observed climatic features such as long-term trends in soil-water recharge season (October-March) precipitation

  1. Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi; hide


    The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture

  2. Faba bean drought responsive gene identification and validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megahed H. Ammar


    Full Text Available This study was carried out to identify drought-responsive genes in a drought tolerant faba bean variety (Hassawi 2 using a suppressive subtraction hybridization approach (SSH. A total of 913 differentially expressed clones were sequenced from a differential cDNA library that resulted in a total of 225 differentially expressed ESTs. The genes of mitochondrial and chloroplast origin were removed, and the remaining 137 EST sequences were submitted to the gene bank EST database (LIBEST_028448. A sequence analysis identified 35 potentially drought stress-related ESTs that regulate ion channels, kinases, and energy production and utilization and transcription factors. Quantitative PCR on Hassawi 2 genotype confirmed that more than 65% of selected drought-responsive genes were drought-related. Among these induced genes, the expression levels of eight highly up-regulated unigenes were further analyzed across 38 selected faba bean genotypes that differ in their drought tolerance levels. These unigenes included ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (rbcL gene, non-LTR retroelement reverse related, probable cyclic nucleotide-gated ion channel, polyubiquitin, potassium channel, calcium-dependent protein kinase and putative respiratory burst oxidase-like protein C and a novel unigene. The expression patterns of these unigenes were variable across 38 genotypes however, it was found to be very high in tolerant genotype. The up-regulation of these unigenes in majority of tolerant genotypes suggests their possible role in drought tolerance. The identification of possible drought responsive candidate genes in Vicia faba reported here is an important step toward the development of drought-tolerant genotypes that can cope with arid environments.

  3. Multivariate Drought Characterization in India for Monitoring and Prediction (United States)

    Sreekumaran Unnithan, P.; Mondal, A.


    Droughts are one of the most important natural hazards that affect the society significantly in terms of mortality and productivity. The metric that is most widely used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to monitor and predict the occurrence, spread, intensification and termination of drought is based on the univariate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). However, droughts may be caused by the influence and interaction of many variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, etc.), emphasizing the need for a multivariate approach for drought characterization. This study advocates and illustrates use of the recently proposed multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) in monitoring and prediction of drought and assessing its concerned risk in the Indian region. MSDI combines information from multiple sources: precipitation and soil moisture, and has been deemed to be a more reliable drought index. All-India monthly rainfall and soil moisture data sets are analysed for the period 1980 to 2014 to characterize historical droughts using both the univariate indices, the precipitation-based SPI and the standardized soil moisture index (SSI), as well as the multivariate MSDI using parametric and non-parametric approaches. We confirm that MSDI can capture droughts of 1986 and 1990 that aren't detected by using SPI alone. Moreover, in 1987, MSDI indicated a higher severity of drought when a deficiency in both soil moisture and precipitation was encountered. Further, this study also explores the use of MSDI for drought forecasts and assesses its performance vis-à-vis existing predictions from the IMD. Future research efforts will be directed towards formulating a more robust standardized drought indicator that can take into account socio-economic aspects that also play a key role for water-stressed regions such as India.

  4. Study of Track Irregularity Time Series Calibration and Variation Pattern at Unit Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaolong Jia


    Full Text Available Focusing on problems existing in track irregularity time series data quality, this paper first presents abnormal data identification, data offset correction algorithm, local outlier data identification, and noise cancellation algorithms. And then proposes track irregularity time series decomposition and reconstruction through the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction approach. Finally, the patterns and features of track irregularity standard deviation data sequence in unit sections are studied, and the changing trend of track irregularity time series is discovered and described.

  5. Spectral classification of medium-scale high-latitude F region plasma density irregularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.; Rodriguez, P.; Szuszczewicz, E.P.; Sachs Freeman Associates, Bowie, MD)


    The high-latitude ionosphere represents a highly structured plasma. Rodriguez and Szuszczewicz (1984) reported a wide range of plasma density irregularities (150 km to 75 m) at high latitudes near 200 km. They have shown that the small-scale irregularities (7.5 km to 75 m) populated the dayside oval more often than the other phenomenological regions. It was suggested that in the lower F region the chemical recombination is fast enough to remove small-scale irregularities before convection can transport them large distances, leaving structured particle precipitation as the dominant source term for irregularities. The present paper provides the results of spectral analyses of pulsed plasma probe data collected in situ aboard the STP/S3-4 satellite during the period March-September 1978. A quantitative description of irregularity spectra in the high-latitude lower F region plasma density is given. 22 references

  6. Evaluation of the Performance of Multiple Drought Indices for Tunisia (United States)

    Geli, H. M. E.; Jedd, T.; Svoboda, M.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.; Neale, C. M. U.; Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.


    The recent and frequent drought events in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) create an urgent need for scientists, stakeholders, and decision makers to improve the understanding of drought in order to mitigate its effects. It is well documented that drought is not caused by meteorological or hydrological conditions alone; social, economic, and political governance factors play a large part in whether the components in a water supply system are balanced. In the MENA region, for example, agricultural production can place a significant burden on water supply systems. Understanding the connection between drought and agricultural production is an important first step in developing a sound drought monitoring and mitigation system that links physical indicators with on-the-ground impacts. Drought affect crop yield, livestock health, and water resources availability, among others. A clear depiction of drought onset, duration and severity is essential to provide valuable information to adapt and mitigate drought impact. Therefore, it is important that to be able to connect and evaluate scientific drought data and informational products with societal impact data to more effectively initiate mitigation actions. This approach will further the development of drought maps that are tailored and responsive to immediate and specific societal needs for a region or country. Within the context of developing and evaluating drought impacts maps for the MENA region, this analysis investigates the use of different drought indices and indicators including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, land surface temperature (LST), and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for their ability to characterize historic drought events in Tunisia. Evaluation of a "drought map" product is conducted using data at the county level including crop yield, precipitation, in-country interviews with drought monitoring experts and agricultural

  7. Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management (United States)

    AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid


    Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally

  8. Physiological and comparative proteomic analysis reveals different drought responses in roots and leaves of drought-tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Liu

    Full Text Available To determine the proteomic-level responses of drought tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum, physiological and comparative proteomic analyses were conducted using the roots and the leaves of control and short term drought-stressed plants. Drought stress was imposed by transferring hydroponically grown seedlings at the 3-leaf stage into 1/2 Hoagland solution containing 20% PEG-6000 for 48 h. Root and leaf samples were separately collected at 0 (control, 24, and 48 h of drought treatment for analysis. Physiological analysis indicated that abscisic acid (ABA level was greatly increased in the drought-treated plants, but the increase was greater and more rapid in the leaves than in the roots. The net photosynthetic rate of the wild wheat leaves was significantly decreased under short-term drought stress. The deleterious effects of drought on the studied traits mainly targeted photosynthesis. Comparative proteomic analysis identified 98 and 85 differently changed protein spots (DEPs (corresponding to 87 and 80 unique proteins, respectively in the leaves and the roots, respectively, with only 6 mutual unique proteins in the both organs. An impressive 86% of the DEPs were implicated in detoxification and defense, carbon metabolism, amino acid and nitrogen metabolism, proteins metabolism, chaperones, transcription and translation, photosynthesis, nucleotide metabolism, and signal transduction. Further analysis revealed some mutual and tissue-specific responses to short-term drought in the leaves and the roots. The differences of drought-response between the roots and the leaves mainly included that signal sensing and transduction-associated proteins were greatly up-regulated in the roots. Photosynthesis and carbon fixation ability were decreased in the leaves. Glycolysis was down-regulated but PPP pathway enhanced in the roots, resulting in occurrence of complex changes in energy metabolism and establishment of a new homeostasis. Protein metabolism

  9. Drought variability in six catchments in the UK (United States)

    Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard


    Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

  10. Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine (United States)

    Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.


    Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.

  11. Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Qing; LI MingXing; ZHENG ZiYan; MA ZhuGuo


    The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven

  12. Drought definitions and processes: how do humans fit in? (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne; Van Lanen, Henny; Gleeson, Tom


    Drought is commonly defined as a temporary lack of water compared to normal conditions. In the traditional definition used in the natural sciences (climate science, hydrology, earth science) only natural drivers are included and the human effect on water resources is excluded. Drought impact studies, however, using observed crop yields, wildfire data, reservoir information, etc., can hardy make this division. The interdisciplinarity of drought asks for a broader definition that considers the interplay between the hazard, impacts and management. In flood research, human effects on the volume and timing of the flood event are traditionally taken into account and there is the awareness that human factors like channel modification, land surface changes and water supply engineering can both intensify and reduce flooding. Drought researchers can learn from the flooding community and try to elucidate the effects of human factors on drought duration and severity. This is not only a necessary step to answer relevant societal questions in the anthropocene, but also the IAHS Panta Rhei initiative urges hydrologists to include the connection with human systems. We propose a paradigm shift in the definition of drought, namely to expand it to include the effects of human action. Here, we will present a conceptual diagram that will do justice to the interdisciplinarity of drought. We will discuss the complex interconnected system of climate - hydrology - society - ecosystem and which processes in that system are most relevant to take into consideration when studying drought. The revised definition provides recognition and a common ground to researchers in all fields of research and is better aligned with drought impacts and with stakeholders' and policy maker's views on drought. We will also go into some of the pitfalls and challenges that come with applying this revised definition. For example, the natural and human-induced processes related to drought can have different scales

  13. Molecular markers for drought tolerance in bread wheat

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    May 22, 2013 ... Molecular markers for drought tolerance in bread wheat. Tharwat El Ameen. Department of Genetics, South Valley University, Qena, 83523, Egypt. Accepted 3 May, 2013. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) primers associated with drought tolerance was used in this study to characterize drought ...

  14. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.


    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  15. Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI) (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Sharma, Ashish


    Both drought and aridity indicate imbalance in water availability. While drought is a natural temporal hazard, aridity is a constant climatic feature. This paper investigates the changes in drought characteristics across different aridity zones with and without consideration of potential evapotranspiration (PET), as a means to better assess drought in a warming climate. Two drought indexes are employed: (1) Standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is solely based on precipitation; and (2) Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), which, in addition to precipitation, takes PET into account. The two indexes are first employed to observed precipitation and PET data for the period 1960-2009 from the CRU (Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia) TS 3.1 database. The results indicate that although all the aridity zones experience both downward and upward drought trends, no significant trend is found over large parts of the zones. However, the agreement between SPI and RDI reduces from the hyper-arid zone on one extreme toward the humid zone on the other. In the three more humid zones (i.e. semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid), the indexes exhibit different trends, with RDI showing more decreasing trends (i.e. becoming drier). While SPI generally shows more drought prone areas than RDI for the pre-1998 period, the opposite is observed for the post-1998 period. Given the known changes to PET in observed records, and also expected increases as global warming intensifies, these results suggest that RDI will be consistently different to the SPI as global warming intensifies. This hypothesis is further tested for historic and future climate projections from the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia) Mk3.6 global climate model (GCM), with use of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). In this case, PET is calculated using FAO56-PM model for assessment of

  16. The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Laaha


    Full Text Available In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude, pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity

  17. Characterizing spontaneous irregular behavior in coupled map lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobyns, York; Atmanspacher, Harald


    Two-dimensional coupled map lattices display, in a specific parameter range, a stable phase (quasi-) periodic in both space and time. With small changes to the model parameters, this stable phase develops spontaneous eruptions of non-periodic behavior. Although this behavior itself appears irregular, it can be characterized in a systematic fashion. In particular, parameter-independent features of the spontaneous eruptions may allow useful empirical characterizations of other phenomena that are intrinsically hard to predict and reproduce. Specific features of the distributions of lifetimes and emergence rates of irregular states display such parameter-independent properties

  18. Characterizing spontaneous irregular behavior in coupled map lattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobyns, York [PEAR, Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544-5263 (United States); Atmanspacher, Harald [Institut fuer Grenzgebiete der Psychologie und Psychohygiene Wilhelmstrasse 3a, Freiburg 79098 (Germany)]. E-mail:


    Two-dimensional coupled map lattices display, in a specific parameter range, a stable phase (quasi-) periodic in both space and time. With small changes to the model parameters, this stable phase develops spontaneous eruptions of non-periodic behavior. Although this behavior itself appears irregular, it can be characterized in a systematic fashion. In particular, parameter-independent features of the spontaneous eruptions may allow useful empirical characterizations of other phenomena that are intrinsically hard to predict and reproduce. Specific features of the distributions of lifetimes and emergence rates of irregular states display such parameter-independent properties.

  19. Phenotyping common beans for adaptation to drought (United States)

    Beebe, Stephen E.; Rao, Idupulapati M.; Blair, Matthew W.; Acosta-Gallegos, Jorge A.


    Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) originated in the New World and are the grain legume of greatest production for direct human consumption. Common bean production is subject to frequent droughts in highland Mexico, in the Pacific coast of Central America, in northeast Brazil, and in eastern and southern Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. This article reviews efforts to improve common bean for drought tolerance, referring to genetic diversity for drought response, the physiology of drought tolerance mechanisms, and breeding strategies. Different races of common bean respond differently to drought, with race Durango of highland Mexico being a major source of genes. Sister species of P. vulgaris likewise have unique traits, especially P. acutifolius which is well adapted to dryland conditions. Diverse sources of tolerance may have different mechanisms of plant response, implying the need for different methods of phenotyping to recognize the relevant traits. Practical considerations of field management are discussed including: trial planning; water management; and field preparation. PMID:23507928

  20. Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts (United States)

    Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.


    Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

  1. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought


    von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard


    Understanding the conflict potential of drought is critical for dealing effectively with the societal implications of climate change. Using new georeferenced ethnicity and conflict data for Asia and Africa since 1989, we present an actor-oriented analysis of growing-season drought and conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Results from naive models common in previous research suggest that drought generally has little impact. However, context-sensitive models accounting for the groups’ leve...


    CERN Multimedia

    W. Smith


    Level-1 Trigger Hardware and Software Overall the L1 trigger hardware has been running very smoothly during the last months of proton running. Modifications for the heavy-ion run have been made where necessary. The maximal design rate of 100 kHz can be sustained without problems. All L1 latencies have been rechecked. The recently installed Forward Scintillating Counters (FSC) are being used in the heavy ion run. The ZDC scintillators have been dismantled, but the calorimeter itself remains. We now send the L1 accept signal and other control signals to TOTEM. Trigger cables from TOTEM to CMS will be installed during the Christmas shutdown, so that the TOTEM data can be fully integrated within the CMS readout. New beam gas triggers have been developed, since the BSC-based trigger is no longer usable at high luminosities. In particular, a special BPTX signal is used after a quiet period with no collisions. There is an ongoing campaign to provide enough spare modules for the different subsystems. For example...


    CERN Multimedia

    J. Alimena


    Trigger Strategy Group The Strategy for Trigger Evolution And Monitoring (STEAM) group is responsible for the development of future High-Level Trigger menus, as well as of its DQM and validation, in collaboration and with the technical support of the PdmV group. Taking into account the beam energy and luminosity expected in 2015, a rough estimate of the trigger rates indicates a factor four increase with respect to 2012 conditions. Assuming that a factor two can be tolerated thanks to the increase in offline storage and processing capabilities, a toy menu has been developed using the new OpenHLT workflow to estimate the transverse energy/momentum thresholds that would halve the current trigger rates. The CPU time needed to run the HLT has been compared between data taken with 25 ns and 50 ns bunch spacing, for equivalent pile-up: no significant difference was observed on the global time per event distribution at the only available data point, corresponding to a pile-up of about 10 interactions. Using th...

  4. Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh. (United States)

    Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon


    Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing

  5. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano


    Full Text Available We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic may also affect on land degradation.

  6. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011)

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio


    We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax) predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa) were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic) may also affect on land degradation.

  7. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011)

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Cabello, Daniel; Tomá s-Burguera, Miquel; Martí n-Herná ndez, Natalia; Beguerí a, Santiago; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Kenawy, Ahmed


    We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax) predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa) were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic) may also affect on land degradation.

  8. The Invitational Drought Tournament: What is it and why is it a useful tool for drought preparedness and adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey Hill


    Full Text Available Proactive drought preparedness is a challenge for a variety of physical, institutional, and social reasons. Significant progress has been made in monitoring and forecasting water deficits, both temporally and spatially. However, less progress has been made in translating this information into proactive decision-making frameworks to support drought preparedness. The Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT, a simulation adaptation framework developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, is a recent innovation that supports drought preparedness efforts. The IDT provides a mechanism for presenting physical science information to decision makers across a variety of educational levels and professional backgrounds, in a way that allows for peer-to-peer education and synthesis. Second, the game simulation environment allows players to integrate this information into economic, policy and institutional frameworks in a non-threatening manner. Third, it maintains realism by constraining players׳ risk management options via a budget, the physical realities of the drought presented, and the technical expertise of the ‘referees’. Post-game follow-up allows players to explore lessons learned and to identify topics that warrant further in-depth exploration of policy options and subsequent implementation. The game provides an interim step between recognition of the risk posed by drought hazards and the actual implementation of vulnerability-reduction actions. This allows for a broad discussion within a sports-themed process that provides room for reflection and a richer understanding of the issues that must be addressed to ensure drought preparedness actions are effective.

  9. Dose calculations for irregular fields using three-dimensional first-scatter integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boesecke, R.; Scharfenberg, H.; Schlegel, W.; Hartmann, G.H.


    This paper describes a method of dose calculations for irregular fields which requires only the mean energy of the incident photons, the geometrical properties of the irregular field and of the therapy unit, and the attenuation coefficient of tissue. The method goes back to an approach including spatial aspects of photon scattering for inhomogeneities for the calculation of dose reduction factors as proposed by Sontag and Cunningham (1978). It is based on the separation of dose into a primary component and a scattered component. The scattered component can generally be calculated for each field by integration over dose contributions from scattering in neighbouring volume elements. The quotient of this scattering contribution in the irregular field and the scattering contribution in the equivalent open field is then the correction factor for scattering in an irregular field. A correction factor for the primary component can be calculated if the attenuation of the photons in the shielding block is properly taken into account. The correction factor is simply given by the quotient of primary photons of the irregular field and the primary photons of the open field. (author)

  10. Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Sanusi Shiru


    Full Text Available This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI. The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.

  11. Using forbidden ordinal patterns to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series. (United States)

    Kulp, C W; Chobot, J M; Niskala, B J; Needhammer, C J


    It is known that when symbolizing a time series into ordinal patterns using the Bandt-Pompe (BP) methodology, there will be ordinal patterns called forbidden patterns that do not occur in a deterministic series. The existence of forbidden patterns can be used to identify deterministic dynamics. In this paper, the ability to use forbidden patterns to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series is tested on data generated from a continuous model system. The study is done in three parts. First, the effects of sampling time on the number of forbidden patterns are studied on regularly sampled time series. The next two parts focus on two types of irregular-sampling, missing data and timing jitter. It is shown that forbidden patterns can be used to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series for low degrees of sampling irregularity (as defined in the paper). In addition, comments are made about the appropriateness of using the BP methodology to symbolize irregularly sampled time series.

  12. Scintillations associated with bottomside sinusoidal irregularities in the equatorial F region (United States)

    Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Valladares, C. E.; Dasgupta, A.; Whitney, H. E.


    Multisatellite scintillation observations and spaced receiver drift measurements are presented for a category of equatorial F region plasma irregularities characterized by nearly sinusoidal waveforms in the ion number density. The observations were made at Huancayo, Peru, and the measurements at Ancon, Peru, associated with irregularities observed by the Atmospheric-Explorer-E satellite on a few nights in December 1979. Utilizing ray paths to various geostationary satellites, it was found that the irregularities grow and decay almost simultaneously in long-lived patches extending at least 1000 km in the east-west direction.

  13. Propagation and scattering of electromagnetic waves by the ionospheric irregularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, A.Y.; Kuo, S.P.; Lee, M.C.


    The problem of wave propagation and scattering in the ionosphere is particularly important in the areas of communications, remote-sensing and detection. The ionosphere is often perturbed with coherently structured (quasiperiodic) density irregularities. Experimental observations suggest that these irregularities could give rise to significant ionospheric effect on wave propagation such as causing spread-F of the probing HF sounding signals and scintillation of beacon satellite signals. It was show by the latter that scintillation index S 4 ∼ 0.5 and may be as high as 0.8. In this work a quasi-particle theory is developed to study the scintillation phenomenon. A Wigner distribution function for the wave intensity in the (k,r) space is introduced and its governing equation is derived with an effective collision term giving rise to the attenuation and scattering of the wave. This kinetic equation leads to a hierarchy of moment equations in r space. This systems of equations is then truncated to the second moment which is equivalent to assuming a cold quasi-particle distribution In this analysis, the irregularities are modeled as a two dimensional density modulation on an uniform background plasma. The analysis shows that this two dimensional density grating, effectively modulates the intensity of the beacon satellite signals. This spatial modulation of the wave intensity is converted into time modulation due to the drift of the ionospheric irregularities, which then contributes to the scintillation of the beacon satellite signals. Using the proper plasma parameters and equatorial measured data of irregularities, it is shown that the scintillation index defined by S4=( 2 >- 2 )/ 2 where stands for spatial average over an irregularity wavelength is in the range of the experimentally detected values

  14. Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions (United States)

    Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia


    The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining

  15. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble (United States)

    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia


    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  16. Earthworms accumulate alanine in response to drought. (United States)

    Holmstrup, Martin; Slotsbo, Stine; Henriksen, Per G; Bayley, Mark


    Earthworms have ecologically significant functions in tropical and temperate ecosystems and it is therefore important to understand how these animals survive during drought. In order to explore the physiological responses to dry conditions, we simulated a natural drought incident in a laboratory trial exposing worms in slowly drying soil for about one month, and then analyzed the whole-body contents of free amino acids (FAAs). We investigated three species forming estivation chambers when soils dry out (Aporrectodea tuberculata, Aporrectodea icterica and Aporrectodea longa) and one species that does not estivate during drought (Lumbricus rubellus). Worms subjected to drought conditions (alanine that was significantly upregulated in all tested species. Alanine was the most important FAA reaching 250-650μmolg(-1) dry weight in dehydrated Aporrectodea species and 300μmolg(-1) dry weight in L. rubellus. Proline was only weakly upregulated in some species as were a few other FAAs. Species forming estivation chambers (Aporrectodea spp.) did not show a better ability to conserve body water than the non-estivating species (L. rubellus) at the same drought level. These results suggest that the accumulation of alanine is an important adaptive trait in drought tolerance of earthworms in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The structure of plasma-density irregularities in the interplanetary medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.


    The conflict in the literature as to whether the plasma-density spatial spectrum of the irregularities in the interplanetary medium is of Gaussian or power law form is discussed. Particular attention is paid to the interplanetary scintillation effects ascribed to these irregularities. It is shown that the phase-screen theory of scintillations can be invoked to devise a set of critical tests which provide a means of discriminating between the conflicting hypotheses. Differences in the predicted behaviour of the single sensor temporal spectra of the scintillations for the two irregularity forms provide the main tests of the conflicting hypotheses. However, it is also shown that the two hypotheses lead to different forms of the variation of scintillation index with the observing frequency and the solar elongation of the scintillating source. Consideration is given to the optimum conditions for observing the Fourier and Bessel temporal spectra modulation which is due to the Fresnel filtering of the spatial spectrum. Determination of irregularity shape, orientation and motion in terms of this modulation is also discussed. (author)

  18. Potentials of molecular based breeding to enhance drought ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ability of plant to sustain itself in limited water conditions is crucial in the world of agriculture. To breed for drought tolerance in wheat, it is essential to clearly understand drought tolerant mechanisms. Conventional breeding is time consuming and labor intensive being inefficient with low heritability traits like drought ...

  19. Hydrological drought and wildfire in the humid tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taufik, Muh


    Drought is a recurrent hazard, which has happened throughout human history, and it is anticipated to become more severe in multiple regions across the world. Drought occurs in all climate regimes from humid to dry and from hot to cold. Drought is often viewed through its impact on environment and

  20. Transgenerational variations in DNA methylation induced by drought stress in two rice varieties with distinguished difference to drought resistance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguo Zheng

    Full Text Available Adverse environmental conditions have large impacts on plant growth and crop production. One of the crucial mechanisms that plants use in variable and stressful natural environments is gene expression modulation through epigenetic modification. In this study, two rice varieties with different drought resistance levels were cultivated under drought stress from tilling stage to seed filling stage for six successive generations. The variations in DNA methylation of the original generation (G0 and the sixth generation (G6 of these two varieties in normal condition (CK and under drought stress (DT at seedling stage were assessed by using Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism (MSAP method. The results revealed that drought stress had a cumulative effect on the DNA methylation pattern of both varieties, but these two varieties had different responses to drought stress in DNA methylation. The DNA methylation levels of II-32B (sensitive and Huhan-3 (resistant were around 39% and 32%, respectively. Genome-wide DNA methylation variations among generations or treatments accounted for around 13.1% of total MSAP loci in II-32B, but was only approximately 1.3% in Huhan-3. In II-32B, 27.6% of total differentially methylated loci (DML were directly induced by drought stress and 3.2% of total DML stably transmitted their changed DNA methylation status to the next generation. In Huhan-3, the numbers were 48.8% and 29.8%, respectively. Therefore, entrainment had greater effect on Huhan-3 than on II-32B. Sequence analysis revealed that the DML were widely distributed on all 12 rice chromosomes and that it mainly occurred on the gene's promoter and exon region. Some genes with DML respond to environmental stresses. The inheritance of epigenetic variations induced by drought stress may provide a new way to develop drought resistant rice varieties.

  1. Assessing the vegetation condition impacts of the 2011 drought across the U.S. southern Great Plains using the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) (United States)

    Tadesse, Tsegaye; Wardlow, Brian D.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Fuchs, Brian; Gutzmer, Denise


    The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of record-breaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the drought across the region corresponded well to the record warm temperatures and much-below-normal precipitation reported by the National Climatic Data Center and the sectoral drought impacts documented by the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). VegDRI values and maps also showed the evolution of the drought signal before the Las Conchas Fire (the largest fire in New Mexico’s history). Reports in the DIR indicated that the 2011 drought had major adverse impacts on most rangeland and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in total direct losses of more than $12 billion associated with crop, livestock, and timber production. These severe impacts on vegetation were depicted by the VegDRI at subcounty, state, and regional levels. This study indicates that the VegDRI maps can be used with traditional drought indicators and other in situ measures to help producers and government officials with various management decisions, such as justifying disaster assistance, assessing fire risk, and identifying locations to move livestock for grazing.

  2. On the Automatic Parallelization of Sparse and Irregular Fortran Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Lin


    Full Text Available Automatic parallelization is usually believed to be less effective at exploiting implicit parallelism in sparse/irregular programs than in their dense/regular counterparts. However, not much is really known because there have been few research reports on this topic. In this work, we have studied the possibility of using an automatic parallelizing compiler to detect the parallelism in sparse/irregular programs. The study with a collection of sparse/irregular programs led us to some common loop patterns. Based on these patterns new techniques were derived that produced good speedups when manually applied to our benchmark codes. More importantly, these parallelization methods can be implemented in a parallelizing compiler and can be applied automatically.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grav, T. [Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Bauer, J. M.; Mainzer, A. K.; Masiero, J. R.; Sonnett, S.; Kramer, E. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Nugent, C. R.; Cutri, R. M., E-mail: [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)


    We present thermal model fits for 11 Jovian and 3 Saturnian irregular satellites based on measurements from the WISE/NEOWISE data set. Our fits confirm spacecraft-measured diameters for the objects with in situ observations (Himalia and Phoebe) and provide diameters and albedo for 12 previously unmeasured objects, 10 Jovian and 2 Saturnian irregular satellites. The best-fit thermal model beaming parameters are comparable to what is observed for other small bodies in the outer solar system, while the visible, W1, and W2 albedos trace the taxonomic classifications previously established in the literature. Reflectance properties for the irregular satellites measured are similar to the Jovian Trojan and Hilda Populations, implying common origins.

  4. Early twenty-first-century droughts during the warmest climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Kogan


    Full Text Available The first 13 years of the twenty-first century have begun with a series of widespread, long and intensive droughts around the world. Extreme and severe-to-extreme intensity droughts covered 2%–6% and 7%–16% of the world land, respectively, affecting environment, economies and humans. These droughts reduced agricultural production, leading to food shortages, human health deterioration, poverty, regional disturbances, population migration and death. This feature article is a travelogue of the twenty-first-century global and regional droughts during the warmest years of the past 100 years. These droughts were identified and monitored with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational space technology, called vegetation health (VH, which has the longest period of observation and provides good data quality. The VH method was used for assessment of vegetation condition or health, including drought early detection and monitoring. The VH method is based on operational satellites data estimating both land surface greenness (NDVI and thermal conditions. The twenty-first-century droughts in the USA, Russia, Australia and Horn of Africa were intensive, long, covered large areas and caused huge losses in agricultural production, which affected food security and led to food riots in some countries. This research also investigates drought dynamics presenting no definite conclusion about drought intensification or/and expansion during the time of the warmest globe.

  5. Statistical of the drought in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado Moreno, Gonzalo


    The drought is evaluated by means of a standardized index of precipitation, at the same time simple and direct. It has not been guided toward a specific type of drought, but rather it has been evaluated as a phenomenon caused exclusively by the rain deficiency

  6. Carbon Dynamics of Pinus palustris Ecosystems Following Drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Starr


    Full Text Available Drought can affect forest structure and function at various spatial and temporal scales. Forest response and recovery from drought may be a result of position within landscape. Longleaf pine forests in the United States have been observed to reduce their carbon sequestration capacity during drought. We collected eddy covariance data at the ends of an edaphic longleaf pine gradient (xeric and mesic sites over seven years; two years of normal rainfall were followed by 2.5 years of drought, then 2.5 years of normal or slightly above-average rainfall. Drought played a significant role in reducing the physiological capacity of the sites and was compounded when prescribed fire occurred during the same periods. The mesic site has a 40% greater basal area then the xeric site, which accounts for its larger sequestration capacity; however, both sites show the same range of variance in fluxes over the course of the study. Following drought, both sites became carbon sinks. However, the xeric site had a longer carry-over effect and never returned to pre-drought function. Although this study encompassed seven years, we argue that longer studies with greater spatial variance must be undertaken to develop a more comprehensive understanding of forest response to changing climate.

  7. Drought stress responses in soybean roots and nodules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Kunert


    Full Text Available Drought is considered to be a major threat to soybean production worldwide and yet our current understanding of the effects of drought on soybean productively is largely based on studies on above-ground traits. Although the roots and root nodules are important sensors of drought, the responses of these crucial organs and their drought tolerance features remain poorly characterized. The symbiotic interaction between soybean and rhizobia facilitates atmospheric nitrogen fixation, a process that provides essential nitrogen to support plant growth and development. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is important for sustainable agriculture, as it sustains plant growth on nitrogen-poor soils and limits fertilizer use for crop nitrogen nutrition. Recent developments have been made in our understanding of the drought impact on soybean root architecture and nodule traits, as well as underpinning transcriptome, proteome and also emerging metabolome information, with a view to improve the selection of more drought-tolerant soybean cultivars and rhizobia in the future. We conclude that the direct screening of root and nodule traits in the field as well as identification of genes, proteins and also metabolites involved in such traits will be essential in order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of root architecture, bacteroid development and lifespan in relation to drought tolerance in soybean.

  8. Drought Stress Responses in Soybean Roots and Nodules. (United States)

    Kunert, Karl J; Vorster, Barend J; Fenta, Berhanu A; Kibido, Tsholofelo; Dionisio, Giuseppe; Foyer, Christine H


    Drought is considered to be a major threat to soybean production worldwide and yet our current understanding of the effects of drought on soybean productively is largely based on studies on above-ground traits. Although the roots and root nodules are important sensors of drought, the responses of these crucial organs and their drought tolerance features remain poorly characterized. The symbiotic interaction between soybean and rhizobia facilitates atmospheric nitrogen fixation, a process that provides essential nitrogen to support plant growth and development. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is important for sustainable agriculture, as it sustains plant growth on nitrogen-poor soils and limits fertilizer use for crop nitrogen nutrition. Recent developments have been made in our understanding of the drought impact on soybean root architecture and nodule traits, as well as underpinning transcriptome, proteome and also emerging metabolome information, with a view to improve the selection of more drought-tolerant soybean cultivars and rhizobia in the future. We conclude that the direct screening of root and nodule traits in the field as well as identification of genes, proteins and also metabolites involved in such traits will be essential in order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of root architecture, bacteroid development and lifespan in relation to drought tolerance in soybean.

  9. Evaluation of drought tolerance indices among some winter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of drought stress on seed yield of some winter rapeseed cultivars and to study relevant drought tolerance indices, along with identifying resistant cultivars to drought stress. Plant materials were sown in split plot arrangement based on a randomized complete blocks ...

  10. Phosphorous Application Improves Drought Tolerance of Phoebe zhennan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akash Tariq


    Full Text Available Phoebe zhennan (Gold Phoebe is a threatened tree species in China and a valuable and important source of wood and bioactive compounds used in medicine. Apart from anthropogenic disturbances, several biotic constraints currently restrict its growth and development. However, little attention has been given to building adaptive strategies for its conservation by examining its morphological and physio-biochemical responses to drought stress, and the role of fertilizers on these responses. A randomized experimental design was used to investigate the effects of two levels of irrigation (well-watered and drought-stressed and phosphorous (P fertilization treatment (with and without P to assess the morphological and physio-biochemical responses of P. zhennan seedlings to drought stress. In addition, we evaluated whether P application could mitigate the negative impacts of drought on plant growth and metabolism. Drought stress had a significant negative effect on the growth and metabolic processes of P. zhennan. Despite this, reduced leaf area, limited stomatal conductance, reduced transpiration rate, increased water use efficiency, enhanced antioxidant enzymes activities, and osmolytes accumulation suggested that the species has good adaptive strategies for tolerating drought stress. Application of P had a significant positive effect on root biomass, signifying its improved water extracting capacity from the soil. Moreover, P fertilization significantly increased leaf relative water content, net photosynthetic rate, and maximal quantum efficiency of PSII under drought stress conditions. This may be attributable to several factors, such as enhanced root biomass, decreased malondialdehyde content, and the up-regulation of chloroplast pigments, osmolytes, and nitrogenous compounds. However, P application had only a slight or negligible effect on the growth and metabolism of well-watered plants. In conclusion, P. zhennan has a strong capability for drought

  11. Drought impacts and resilience on crops via evapotranspiration estimations (United States)

    Timmermans, Joris; Asadollahi Dolatabad, Saeid


    Currently, the global needs for food and water is at a critical level. It has been estimated that 12.5 % of the global population suffers from malnutrition and 768 million people still do not have access to clean drinking water. This need is increasing because of population growth but also by climate change. Changes in precipitation patterns will result either in flooding or droughts. Consequently availability, usability and affordability of water is becoming challenge and efficient use of water and water management is becoming more important, particularly during severe drought events. Drought monitoring for agricultural purposes is very hard. While meteorological drought can accurately be monitored using precipitation only, estimating agricultural drought is more difficult. This is because agricultural drought is dependent on the meteorological drought, the impacts on the vegetation, and the resilience of the crops. As such not only precipitation estimates are required but also evapotranspiration at plant/plot scale. Evapotranspiration (ET) describes the amount of water evaporated from soil and vegetation. As 65% of precipitation is lost by ET, drought severity is highly linked with this variable. In drought research, the precise quantification of ET and its spatio-temporal variability is therefore essential. In this view, remote sensing based models to estimate ET, such as SEBAL and SEBS, are of high value. However the resolution of current evapotranspiration products are not good enough for monitoring the impact of the droughts on the specific crops. This limitation originates because plot scales are in general smaller than the resolution of the available satellite ET products. As such remote sensing estimates of evapotranspiration are always a combination of different land surface types and cannot be used for plant health and drought resilience studies. The goal of this research is therefore to enable adequate resolutions of daily evapotranspiration estimates

  12. Drought Tip: Keeping Plants Alive under Drought or Water Restrictions


    Hartin, Janet; Oki, Loren; Fujino, Dave; Faber, Ben


    Plants that don't receive enough water eventually show signs of water stress. During a drought or under water restrictions aimed at water conservation, keeping plants alive can be particularly difficult.

  13. Crime among irregular immigrants and the influence of internal border control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leerkes, A.S.; Engbersen, G.; Leun, van der J.P.


    Abstract Both the number of crime suspects without legal status and the number of irregular or undocumented immigrants held in detention facilities increased substantially in theNetherlands between 1997 and 2003. In this period, theDutch state increasingly attempted to exclude irregular immigrants

  14. Crime among irregular immigrants and the influence of internal border control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.S. Leerkes (Arjen); G.B.M. Engbersen (Godfried); J.P. van der Leun (Joanne)


    textabstractBoth the number of crime suspects without legal status and the number of irregular or undocumented immigrants held in detention facilities increased substantially in theNetherlands between 1997 and 2003. In this period, theDutch state increasingly attempted to exclude irregular

  15. Geostatistical regularization operators for geophysical inverse problems on irregular meshes (United States)

    Jordi, C.; Doetsch, J.; Günther, T.; Schmelzbach, C.; Robertsson, J. OA


    Irregular meshes allow to include complicated subsurface structures into geophysical modelling and inverse problems. The non-uniqueness of these inverse problems requires appropriate regularization that can incorporate a priori information. However, defining regularization operators for irregular discretizations is not trivial. Different schemes for calculating smoothness operators on irregular meshes have been proposed. In contrast to classical regularization constraints that are only defined using the nearest neighbours of a cell, geostatistical operators include a larger neighbourhood around a particular cell. A correlation model defines the extent of the neighbourhood and allows to incorporate information about geological structures. We propose an approach to calculate geostatistical operators for inverse problems on irregular meshes by eigendecomposition of a covariance matrix that contains the a priori geological information. Using our approach, the calculation of the operator matrix becomes tractable for 3-D inverse problems on irregular meshes. We tested the performance of the geostatistical regularization operators and compared them against the results of anisotropic smoothing in inversions of 2-D surface synthetic electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data as well as in the inversion of a realistic 3-D cross-well synthetic ERT scenario. The inversions of 2-D ERT and seismic traveltime field data with geostatistical regularization provide results that are in good accordance with the expected geology and thus facilitate their interpretation. In particular, for layered structures the geostatistical regularization provides geologically more plausible results compared to the anisotropic smoothness constraints.

  16. Monitoring and Assessing the 2012 Drought in the Great Plains: Analyzing Satellite-Retrieved Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Drought Indices, and Gross Primary Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siheng Wang


    Full Text Available We examined the relationship between satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF and several meteorological drought indices, including the multi-time-scale standard precipitation index (SPI and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI, to evaluate the potential of using SIF to monitor and assess drought. We found significant positive relationships between SIF and drought indices during the growing season (from June to September. SIF was found to be more sensitive to short-term SPIs (one or two months and less sensitive to long-term SPI (three months than were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI or the normalized difference water index (NDWI. Significant correlations were found between SIF and PDSI during the growing season for the Great Plains. We found good consistency between SIF and flux-estimated gross primary production (GPP for the years studied, and synchronous declines of SIF and GPP in an extreme drought year (2012. We used SIF to monitor and assess the drought that occurred in the Great Plains during the summer of 2012, and found that although a meteorological drought was experienced throughout the Great Plains from June to September, the western area experienced more agricultural drought than the eastern area. Meanwhile, SIF declined more significantly than NDVI during the peak growing season. Yet for senescence, during which time the reduction of NDVI still went on, the reduction of SIF was eased. Our work provides an alternative to traditional reflectance-based vegetation or drought indices for monitoring and assessing agricultural drought.

  17. The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions (United States)

    Vogt, Jürgen; Sepulcre, Guadalupe; Magni, Diego; Valentini, Luana; Singleton, Andrew; Micale, Fabio; Barbosa, Paulo


    Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, developing combined indicators, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and testing options for medium-range probabilistic drought forecasting across Europe. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

  18. Heavy and frequent thinning promotes drought adaptation in Pinus sylvestris forests. (United States)

    Sohn, Julia A; Hartig, Florian; Kohler, Martin; Huss, Jürgen; Bauhus, Jürgen


    Droughts and their negative effects on forest ecosystems are projected to increase under climate change for many regions. It has been suggested that intensive thinning could reduce drought impacts on established forests in the short-term. Most previous studies on the effect of thinning on drought impacts, however, have been confined to single forest sites. It is therefore still unclear how general and persisting the benefits of thinning are. This study assesses the potential of thinning to increase drought tolerance of the wide spread Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in Central Europe. We hypothesized (1) that increasing thinning intensity benefits the maintenance of radial growth of crop trees during drought (resistance) and its recovery following drought, (2) that those benefits to growth decrease with time elapsed since the last thinning and with stand age, and (3) that they may depend on drought severity as well as water limitations in pre- and post-drought periods. To test these hypotheses, we assessed the effects of thinning regime, stand age, and drought severity on radial growth of 129 Scots pine trees during and after drought events in four long-term thinning experiments in Germany. We found that thinning improved the recovery of radial growth following drought and to a lesser extent the growth resistance during a drought event. Growth recovery following drought was highest after the first thinning intervention and in recently and heavily thinned stands. With time since the last thinning, however, this effect decreased and could even become negative when compared to unthinned stands. Further, thinning helped to avoid an age-related decline in growth resistance (and recovery) following drought. The recovery following drought, but not the resistance during drought, was related to water limitations in the drought period. This is the first study that analyzed drought-related radial growth in trees of one species across several stands of different age. The

  19. The relative influence of climate and catchment properties on hydrological drought (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Koffler, Daniel


    Studying hydrological drought (a below-normal water availability in groundwater, lakes and streams) is important to society and the ecosystem, but can also reveal interesting information about catchment functioning. This information can later be used for predicting drought in ungauged basins and to inform water management decisions. In this study, we used an extensive Austrian dataset of discharge measurements in clusters of catchments and combine this dataset with thematic information on climate and catchment properties. Our aim was to study the relative effects of climate and catchment characteristics on drought duration and deficit and on hydrological drought typology. Because the climate of the region is roughly uniform, our hypothesis was that the effect of differences of catchment properties would stand out. From time series of precipitation and discharge we identified droughts with the widely-used threshold level approach, defining a drought when a variable falls below a pre-defined threshold representing the regime. Drought characteristics that were analysed are drought duration and deficit. We also applied the typology of Van Loon & Van Lanen (2012). To explain differences in drought characteristics between catchments we did a correlation analysis with climate and catchment characteristics, based on Pearson correlation. We found very interesting patterns in the correlations of drought characteristics with climate and catchment properties: 1) Droughts with long duration (mean and maximum) and composite droughts are related to catchments with a high BFI (high baseflow) and a high percentage of shallow groundwater tables. 2) The deficit (mean and maximum) of both meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts is strongly related to catchment humidity, in this case quantified by average annual precipitation. 3) The hydrological drought types that are related to snow, i.e. cold snow season drought and snow melt drought, occur in catchments that are have a

  20. Generating Performance Models for Irregular Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friese, Ryan D.; Tallent, Nathan R.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Kerbyson, Darren J.; Hoisie, Adolfy


    Many applications have irregular behavior --- non-uniform input data, input-dependent solvers, irregular memory accesses, unbiased branches --- that cannot be captured using today's automated performance modeling techniques. We describe new hierarchical critical path analyses for the \\Palm model generation tool. To create a model's structure, we capture tasks along representative MPI critical paths. We create a histogram of critical tasks with parameterized task arguments and instance counts. To model each task, we identify hot instruction-level sub-paths and model each sub-path based on data flow, instruction scheduling, and data locality. We describe application models that generate accurate predictions for strong scaling when varying CPU speed, cache speed, memory speed, and architecture. We present results for the Sweep3D neutron transport benchmark; Page Rank on multiple graphs; Support Vector Machine with pruning; and PFLOTRAN's reactive flow/transport solver with domain-induced load imbalance.

  1. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.


    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  2. Use of climate information for drought risk management in Mexico (United States)

    Neri, C.; Magaña Rueda, V.


    The occurrence of meteorological droughts in Mexico has brought to light the large vulnerability of the central-northern part of the country to water shortages. This region is facing current and future water shortages due to the increased demand of water from urban growth in addition to droughts. Assessing droughts requires considering long-term losses and side effects. However, governments generally invest little resources in the creation of drought risk reduction programs, even in regions where droughts have been documented in historical records, such as in the northern region of Mexico. It is not clear until now, what is our capacity to predict droughts on seasonal time scale, and even the Drought Monitor for North America not always reflect the severity of the condition at the regional level. An analysis of strategies that focus on droughts show that one of the principal limits in the management of drought risks and preventive decision making is the use of inadequate definitions of drought predictability. In addition, the means to communicate confidence in seasonal climate forecasts has inhibited the use of climate information in the planning of various socioeconomic activities. Although some sectors such as agriculture have programs to reduce the impacts of drought, their efforts have focused in providing subsidies to get along with dry conditions. In other words, there are no actions to reduce the potential impacts of drought. The characterization of the vulnerability of water user groups, particularly in Sonora as case of study, has been useful to identifying what type of climate information decision makers needed. This information will be included in a proposal of a drought early warming for Mexico. A key element in a drought early warming for Mexico is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using

  3. On the use of Standardized Drought Indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications (United States)

    Núñez, J.; Rivera, D.; Oyarzún, R.; Arumí, J. L.


    Since the recent High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in Geneva in 2013, a greater concern about the creation and adaptation of national drought monitoring systems is expected. Consequently, backed by international recommendations, the use of Standardized Drought Indices (SDI), such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), as an operational basis of drought monitoring systems has been increasing in many parts of the world. Recommendations for the use of the SPI, and consequently, those indices that share its properties, do not take into account the limitations that this type of index can exhibit under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. These limitations are fundamentally related to the lack of consistency among the operational definition expressed by this type of index, the conceptual definition with which it is associated and the political definition it supports. Furthermore, the limitations found are not overcome by the recommendations for their application. This conclusion is supported by the long-term study of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) in the arid north-central region of Chile, under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. The implications of the findings of the study are discussed with regard to their link to aspects of drought policy in the cases of Australia, the United States and Chile.

  4. Effects of magnetic storm phases on F layer irregularities below the auroral oval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarons, J.; Gurgiolo, C.; Rodger, A.S.


    Observations of F-layer irregularity development and intensity were obtained between September and October 1981, primarily over subauroral latitudes in the area of the plasmapause. The results reveal the descent of the auroral irregularity region to include subauroral latitudes in the general area of the plasmapause during the main phases of a series of magnetic storms. Irregularities were found primarily at lower latitudes during the subauroral or plasmapause storm. A model for the subauroral irregularities in recovery phases of magnetic storms is proposed in which energy stored in the ring current is slowly released. 27 references

  5. Dependence on zenith angle of the strength of 3-meter equatorial electrojet irregularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ierkic, H.M.; Fejer, B.G.; Farley, D.T.


    Radar measurements in Peru were used to deduce the zenith angle dependence of the scattering cross section of plasma irregularities generated by instabilities in the equatorial electrojet. The irregularities probed by the 50 MHz Jicamarca radar had a wavelength of 3m. The cross section for the type 2 irregularities was isotopic in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field, while the cross section for the stronger type 1 irregularities varied with zenith angle at a rate of approximately 0.3 dB/degree; the horizontally traveling waves were more than 100 times stronger than those traveling vertically

  6. Tomato SlRbohB, a member of the NADPH oxidase family, is required for disease resistance against Botrytis cinerea and tolerance to drought stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohui eLi


    Full Text Available NADPH oxidases (also known as respiratory burst oxidase homologues, Rbohs are the enzymes that catalyze the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS in plants. In the present study, eight SlRboh genes were identified in tomato and their possible involvement in resistance to Botrytis cinerea and drought tolerance was examined. Expression of SlRbohs was induced by B. cinerea and Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato but displayed distinct patterns. Virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS-based silencing of SlRbohB resulted in reduced resistance to B. cinerea but silencing of each of other SlRbohs did not affect the resistance. The SlRbohB-silenced plants accumulated more ROS and attenuated expression of defense genes after infection of B. cinerea than the nonsilenced plants. Silencing of SlRbohB also suppressed flg22-induced ROS burst and the expression of SlLrr22, a marker gene related to PAMP-triggered immunity (PTI. Transient expression of SlRbohB in Nicotiana benthamiana led to enhanced resistance to B. cinerea. Furthermore, silencing of SlRbohB resulted in decreased drought tolerance, accelerated water loss in leaves and altered expression of drought-responsive genes. Our data demonstrate that SlRbohB positively regulates the resistance to B. cinerea, flg22-induced PTI and drought tolerance in tomato.

  7. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia


    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  8. Climate Change: Drought and Desertification in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awuor, V.O


    Drought is the failure of expected rain which leads to various effects in physical environment and human activities. Droughts are classified into three types namely; meteorological drought, agricultural and hydrological. Meteorological occurs when precipitation is below expectation, hydrological drought is experienced when water resources used for various activities reach levels when they become insufficient for those purposes. On the other hand agricultural drought occurs when when water supply for agriculture gets scarce and can defined as a moisture deficit that they cause un tolerable water stress during the growing season.In Kenya desertification is characterized by high temperatures that ranges between 14-31 degrees centigrade, with shallow soils of poor water holding capacity, the vegetation consists of variety of grasses, bushes and woodlands. Evergreen forest occurs along the major rivers such as Tana. Agricultural activities are usually concentrated in areas which are relatively wet like the highlands and flood plains with flood plains of permanent and seasonal seasonal rivers, surface storage areas and areas of seasonally -recharged shallow groundwater

  9. Impacts of drought on grape yields in Western Cape, South Africa (United States)

    Araujo, Julio A.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Crespo, Olivier


    Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impacts of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape (South Africa) at district and farm scales. The study used a new drought index that is based on simple water balance (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; hereafter, SPEI) to identify drought events and used a correlation analysis to identify the relationship between drought and grape yields. A crop simulation model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) was applied at the farm scale to investigate the role of irrigation in mitigating the impacts of drought on grape yield. The model gives a realistic simulation of grape yields. The Western Cape has experienced a series of severe droughts in the past few decades. The severe droughts occurred when a decrease in rainfall occurred simultaneously with an increase in temperature. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appears to be an important driver of drought severity in the Western Cape, because most of the severe droughts occurred in El Niño years. At the district scale, the correlation between drought index and grape yield is weak ( r≈-0.5), but at the farm scale, it is strong ( r≈-0.9). This suggests that many farmers are able to mitigate the impacts of drought on grape yields through irrigation management. At the farm scale, where the impact of drought on grape yields is high, poor yield years coincide with moderate or severe drought periods. The APSIM simulation, which gives a realistic simulation of grape yields at the farm scale, suggests that grape yields become more sensitive to spring and summer droughts in the absence of irrigation. Results of this study may guide decision-making on

  10. Effect of DEM resolution on rainfall-triggered landslide modeling within a triangulated network-based model. A case study in the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico (United States)

    Arnone, E.; Dialynas, Y. G.; Noto, L. V.; Bras, R. L.


    Catchment slope distribution is one of the topographic characteristics that significantly control rainfall-triggered landslide modeling, in both direct and indirect ways. Slope directly determines the soil volume associated with instability. Indirectly slope also affects the subsurface lateral redistribution of soil moisture across the basin, which in turn determines the water pore pressure conditions that impact slope stability. In this study, we investigate the influence of DEM resolution on slope stability and the slope stability analysis by using a distributed eco-hydrological and landslide model, the tRIBS-VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator - VEGetation Generator for Interactive Evolution). The model implements a triangulated irregular network to describe the topography, and it is capable of evaluating vegetation dynamics and predicting shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. The impact of DEM resolution on the landslide prediction was studied using five TINs derived from five grid DEMs at different resolutions, i.e. 10, 20, 30, 50 and 70 m respectively. The analysis was carried out on the Mameyes Basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, where previous landslide analyses have been carried out. Results showed that the use of the irregular mesh reduced the loss of accuracy in the derived slope distribution when coarser resolutions were used. The impact of the different resolutions on soil moisture patterns was important only when the lateral redistribution was considerable, depending on hydrological properties and rainfall forcing. In some cases, the use of different DEM resolutions did not significantly affect tRIBS-VEGGIE landslide output, in terms of landslide locations, and values of slope and soil moisture at failure.

  11. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  12. Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient. (United States)

    Clifford, Michael J; Royer, Patrick D; Cobb, Neil S; Breshears, David D; Ford, Paulette L


    Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed. Here, we explore precipitation relationships with a die-off event of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) in southwestern North America during the 2002-2003 global-change-type drought. Pinyon die-off and its relationship with precipitation was quantified spatially along a precipitation gradient in north-central New Mexico with standard field plot measurements of die-off combined with canopy cover derived from normalized burn ratio (NBR) from Landsat imagery. Pinyon die-off patterns revealed threshold responses to precipitation (cumulative 2002-2003) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with little to no mortality (< 10%) above 600 mm and below warm season VPD of c. 1.7 kPa. [Correction added after online publication 17 June 2013; in the preceding sentence, the word 'below' has been inserted.] Our results refine how precipitation patterns within a region influence pinyon die-off, revealing a precipitation and VPD threshold for tree mortality and its uncertainty band where other factors probably come into play - a response type that influences stand demography and landscape heterogeneity and is of general interest, yet has not been documented. © 2013 No claim to US Government works. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  13. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I


    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  14. Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Li


    Full Text Available Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months. When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October. The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.

  15. Dissecting rice polyamine metabolism under controlled long-term drought stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phuc Thi Do

    Full Text Available A selection of 21 rice cultivars (Oryza sativa L. ssp. indica and japonica was characterized under moderate long-term drought stress by comprehensive physiological analyses and determination of the contents of polyamines and selected metabolites directly related to polyamine metabolism. To investigate the potential regulation of polyamine biosynthesis at the transcriptional level, the expression of 21 genes encoding enzymes involved in these pathways were analyzed by qRT-PCR. Analysis of the genomic loci revealed that 11 of these genes were located in drought-related QTL regions, in agreement with a proposed role of polyamine metabolism in rice drought tolerance. The cultivars differed widely in their drought tolerance and parameters such as biomass and photosynthetic quantum yield were significantly affected by drought treatment. Under optimal irrigation free putrescine was the predominant polyamine followed by free spermidine and spermine. When exposed to drought putrescine levels decreased markedly and spermine became predominant in all cultivars. There were no correlations between polyamine contents and drought tolerance. GC-MS analysis revealed drought-induced changes of the levels of ornithine/arginine (substrate, substrates of polyamine synthesis, proline, product of a competing pathway and GABA, a potential degradation product. Gene expression analysis indicated that ADC-dependent polyamine biosynthesis responded much more strongly to drought than the ODC-dependent pathway. Nevertheless the fold change in transcript abundance of ODC1 under drought stress was linearly correlated with the drought tolerance of the cultivars. Combining metabolite and gene expression data, we propose a model of the coordinate adjustment of polyamine biosynthesis for the accumulation of spermine under drought conditions.

  16. Drought coping strategies in cotton: increased crop per drop. (United States)

    Ullah, Abid; Sun, Heng; Yang, Xiyan; Zhang, Xianlong


    The growth and yield of many crops, including cotton, are affected by water deficit. Cotton has evolved drought specific as well as general morpho-physiological, biochemical and molecular responses to drought stress, which are discussed in this review. The key physiological responses against drought stress in cotton, including stomata closing, root development, cellular adaptations, photosynthesis, abscisic acid (ABA) and jasmonic acid (JA) production and reactive oxygen species (ROS) scavenging, have been identified by researchers. Drought stress induces the expression of stress-related transcription factors and genes, such as ROS scavenging, ABA or mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK) signalling genes, which activate various drought-related pathways to induce tolerance in the plant. It is crucial to elucidate and induce drought-tolerant traits via quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, transgenic approaches and exogenous application of substances. The current review article highlights the natural as well as engineered drought tolerance strategies in cotton. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Spatial irregularities in Jupiter's upper ionosphere observed by voyager radio occultations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinson, D.P.; Tyler, G.L.


    Dual frequency radio occultation experiments carried out with Voyagers 1 and 2 provided data on the spatial irregularities in Jupiter's ionosphere at four different locations. Sample spectra of weak fluctuations in amplitude and phase of the 3.6-cm and 13-cm wavelength radio signals can be interpreted by using the theory for scattering from an anisotropic power law phase screen. Least squares solutions for ionospheric parameters derived from the observed fluctuation spectra yielded estimates of (1) the axial ratio, (2) angular orientation of the anisotropic irregularities, (3) the power law exponent of the spatial spectrum of irregularities, and (4) the magnitude of the spatial variations in electron density. Equipment limitations and the method of analysis constrain the observations to irregularities of approximate size 1--200 km. No evidence of the inner or outer scale of the irregularities was found. For length scales in the range given, the three-dimensional spatial spectrum obeys a power law with exponent varying from -3.0 to -3.7, and the root mean square fractional variations in electron density are 1--15%. All observed irregularities appear to be anisotropic with axial ratios between 2:1 and 10:1. Ionospheric parameters vary with altitude and latitude. We conclude that the measured angular orientation of the anisotropic irregularities indicates magnetic field direction and may provide a basis for refining Jovian magnetic field models.

  18. Flexible trigger menu implementation on the Global Trigger for the CMS Level-1 trigger upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Matsushita, Takashi


    The CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has continued to explore physics at the high-energy frontier in 2016. The integrated luminosity delivered by the LHC in 2016 was 41~fb$^{-1}$ with a peak luminosity of 1.5 $\\times$ 10$^{34}$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ and peak mean pile-up of about 50, all exceeding the initial estimations for 2016. The CMS experiment has upgraded its hardware-based Level-1 trigger system to maintain its performance for new physics searches and precision measurements at high luminosities. The Global Trigger is the final step of the CMS \\mbox{Level-1} trigger and implements a trigger menu, a set of selection requirements applied to the final list of objects from calorimeter and muon triggers, for reducing the 40 MHz collision rate to 100 kHz. The Global Trigger has been upgraded with state-of-the-art FPGA processors on Advanced Mezzanine Cards with optical links running at 10 GHz in a MicroTCA crate. The powerful processing resources of the upgraded system enable implemen...

  19. Measurement of Dynamic Friction Coefficient on the Irregular Free Surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeom, S. H.; Seo, K. S.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, K. H.


    A spent fuel storage cask must be estimated for a structural integrity when an earthquake occurs because it freely stands on ground surface without a restriction condition. Usually the integrity estimation for a seismic load is performed by a FEM analysis, the friction coefficient for a standing surface is an important parameter in seismic analysis when a sliding happens. When a storage cask is placed on an irregular ground surface, measuring a friction coefficient of an irregular surface is very difficult because the friction coefficient is affected by the surface condition. In this research, dynamic friction coefficients on the irregular surfaces between a concrete cylinder block and a flat concrete slab are measured with two methods by one direction actuator

  20. 30 MHz radar observations of artificial E region field-aligned plasma irregularities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Hysell


    Full Text Available Artificial E region field aligned irregularities (FAIs have been observed during heating experiments at the HAARP facility using a new 30 MHz coherent scatter radar imager deployed near Homer, Alaska. Irregularities were observed during brief experiments on three quiet days in July and August, 2007, when the daytime E region critical frequency was close to 3 MHz. Irregularities were consistently generated and detected during experiments with O-mode HF pumping on zenith with a 1-min on, 1-min off CW modulation. The scattering cross sections, rise, and fall times of the echoes were observed as well as their spectral properties. Results were found to be mainly in agreement with observations from other mid- and high-latitude sites with some discrepancies. Radar images of the irregularity-filled volume on one case exhibited clear variations in backscatter power and Doppler shift across the volume. The images furthermore show the emergence of a small irregularity-filled region to the south southwest of the main region in the approximate direction of magnetic zenith.

  1. Scientific, Engineering, and Financial Factors of the 1989 Human-Triggered Newcastle Earthquake in Australia (United States)

    Klose, C. D.


    This presentation emphasizes the dualism of natural resources exploitation and economic growth versus geomechanical pollution and risks of human-triggered earthquakes. Large-scale geoengineering activities, e.g., mining, reservoir impoundment, oil/gas production, water exploitation or fluid injection, alter pre-existing lithostatic stress states in the earth's crust and are anticipated to trigger earthquakes. Such processes of in- situ stress alteration are termed geomechanical pollution. Moreover, since the 19th century more than 200 earthquakes have been documented worldwide with a seismic moment magnitude of 4.5losses of triggered earthquakes. An hazard assessment, based on a geomechanical crust model, shows that only four deep coal mines were responsible for triggering this severe earthquake. A small-scale economic risk assessment identifies that the financial loss due to earthquake damage has reduced mining profits that have been re-invested in the Newcastle region for over two centuries beginning in 1801. Furthermore, large-scale economic risk assessment reveals that the financial loss is equivalent to 26% of the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 1988/89. These costs account for 13% of the total costs of all natural disasters (e.g., flooding, drought, wild fires) and 94% of the costs of all earthquakes recorded in Australia between 1967 and 1999. In conclusion, the increasing number and size of geoengineering activities, such as coal mining near Newcastle or planned carbon dioxide Geosequestration initiatives, represent a growing hazard potential, which can negatively affect socio-economic growth and sustainable development. Finally, hazard and risk degrees, based on geomechanical-mathematical models, can be forecasted in space and over time for urban planning in order to prevent economic losses of human-triggered earthquakes in the future.

  2. Climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) triggers the antioxidant enzymes' response of grapevine cv. Tempranillo, avoiding oxidative damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Parra, C.; Aguirreolea, J.; Sanchez-Diaz, M.; Irigoyen, J.J.; Morales, F. (Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Seccion Biologia Vegetal (Unidad Asociada al CSIC, EEAD, Zaragoza e ICVV, Logrono), Facultades de Ciencias y Farmacia, Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain))


    Photosynthetic carbon fixation (A{sub N}) and photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) are affected by different environmental stress factors, such as those associated with climate change. Under stress conditions, it can be generated an electron excess that cannot be consumed, which can react with O{sub 2}, producing reactive oxygen species. This work was aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) on the antioxidant status of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cv. Tempranillo leaves, from veraison to ripeness. The lowest ratios between electrons generated (ETR) and consumed (A{sub N} + respiration + photorespiration) were observed in plants treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature. In partially irrigated plants under current ambient conditions, electrons not consumed seemed to be diverted to alternative ways. Oxidative damage to chlorophylls and carotenoids was not observed. However, these plants had increases in thiobarbituric acid reacting substances, an indication of lipid peroxidation. These increases matched well with an early rise of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and antioxidant enzyme activities, superoxide dismutase (EC, ascorbate peroxidase (EC and catalase (EC Enzymatic activities were maintained high until ripeness. In conclusion, plants grown under current ambient conditions and moderate drought were less efficient to cope with oxidative damage than well-irrigated plants, and more interestingly, plants grown under moderate drought but treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature were not affected by oxidative damage, mainly because of higher rates of electrons consumed in photosynthetic carbon fixation. (Author)

  3. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  4. Simple Screening Methods for Drought and Heat Tolerance in Cowpea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B. B.


    Success in breeding for drought tolerance has not been as pronounced as for other traits. This is partly due to lack of simple, cheap and reliable screening methods to select drought tolerant plants/progenies from the segregating populations and partly due to complexity of factors involved in drought tolerance. Measuring drought tolerance through physiological parameters is expensive, time consuming and difficult to use for screening large numbers of lines and segregating populations. Since several factors/mechanisms (in shoot and root) operate independently and/or jointly to enable plants to cope with drought stress, drought tolerance appears as a complex trait. However, if these factors/mechanisms can be separated and studied individually, the components leading to drought tolerance will appear less complex and may be easy to manipulate by breeders. We have developed a simple box screening method for shoot drought tolerance in cowpea, which eliminates the effects of roots and permits non-destructive visual identification of shoot dehydration tolerance. We have also developed a 'root-box pin-board' method to study two dimensional root architecture of individual plants. Using these methods, we have identified two mechanisms of shoot drought tolerance in cowpea which are controlled by single dominant genes and major difference for root architecture among cowpea varieties. Combining deep and dense root system with shoot dehydration tolerance results into highly drought tolerant plants

  5. Using Enhanced Grace Water Storage Data to Improve Drought Detection by the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors (United States)

    Houborg, Rasmus; Rodell, Matthew; Lawrimore, Jay; Li, Bailing; Reichle, Rolf; Heim, Richard; Rosencrans, Matthew; Tinker, Rich; Famiglietti, James S.; Svoboda, Mark; hide


    NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations of the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including groundwater. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors by filling this observational gap. GRACE TWS data were assimilating into the Catchment Land Surface Model using an ensemble Kalman smoother enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into soil moisture and groundwater components. The Drought Monitors combine several short- and long-term drought indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence. To be consistent, we generated a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on a 60-year Catchment model simulation, which was used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into drought indicator percentiles. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of the GRACE assimilated moisture and indicator fields.

  6. Physiological and molecular responses of springtails exposed to phenanthrene and drought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmstrup, Martin; Slotsbo, Stine; Schmidt, Stine N.; Mayer, Philipp; Damgaard, Christian; Sørensen, Jesper G.


    Interaction between effects of hazardous chemicals in the environment and adverse climatic conditions is a problem that receives increased attention in the light of climate change. We studied interactive effects of phenanthrene and drought using a test system in which springtails (Folsomia candida Willem) were concurrently exposed to a sublethal phenanthrene level via passive dosing from silicone (chemical activity of 0.010), and sublethal drought from aqueous NaCl solutions (water activity of 0.988). Previous studies have shown that the combined effects of high levels of phenanthrene and drought, respectively, interact synergistically when using lethality as an end-point. Here, we hypothesized that phenanthrene interferes with physiological mechanisms involved in drought tolerance, and that drought influences detoxification of phenanthrene. However, this hypothesis was not supported by data since phenanthrene had no effect on drought-protective accumulation of myo-inositol, and normal water conserving mechanisms of F. candida were functioning despite the near-lethal concentrations of the toxicant. Further, detoxifying induction of cytochrome P 450 and glutathione-S-transferase was not impeded by drought. Both phenanthrene and drought induced transcription of heat shock protein (hsp70) and the combined effect of the two stressors on hsp70 transcription was additive, suggesting that the cellular stress and lethality imposed by these levels of phenanthrene and drought were also additive. -- Highlights: • New methods are needed for physiological studies of multiple stressor effects. • Springtails were exposed to combined stress from phenanthrene and drought. • Induction of CYP 450 and glutathione-S-transferase was not impeded by drought. • Drought-protective accumulation of myo-inositol was not challenged by phenanthrene. • The combined effect of phenanthrene and drought on hsp70 transcription was additive. -- Drought does not hamper detoxification of

  7. Soil Selenium (Se) Biofortification Changes the Physiological, Biochemical and Epigenetic Responses to Water Stress in Zea mays L. by Inducing a Higher Drought Tolerance. (United States)

    Bocchini, Marika; D'Amato, Roberto; Ciancaleoni, Simona; Fontanella, Maria C; Palmerini, Carlo A; Beone, Gian M; Onofri, Andrea; Negri, Valeria; Marconi, Gianpiero; Albertini, Emidio; Businelli, Daniela


    Requiring water and minerals to grow and to develop its organs, Maize ( Zea mays L.) production and distribution is highly rainfall-dependent. Current global climatic changes reveal irregular rainfall patterns and this could represent for maize a stressing condition resulting in yield and productivity loss around the world. It is well known that low water availability leads the plant to adopt a number of metabolic alterations to overcome stress or reduce its effects. In this regard, selenium (Se), a trace element, can help reduce water damage caused by the overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Here we report the effects of exogenous Se supply on physiological and biochemical processes that may influence yield and quality of maize under drought stress conditions. Plants were grown in soil fertilized by adding 150 mg of Se (sodium selenite). We verified the effects of drought stress and Se treatment. Selenium biofortification proved more beneficial for maize plants when supplied at higher Se concentrations. The increase in proline, K concentrations and nitrogen metabolism in aerial parts of plants grown in Se-rich substrates, seems to prove that Se-biofortification increased plant resistance to water shortage conditions. Moreover, the increase of SeMeSeCys and SeCys2 forms in roots and aerial parts of Se-treated plants suggest resistance strategies to Se similar to those existing in Se-hyperaccumulator species. In addition, epigenetic changes in DNA methylation due to water stress and Se treatment were also investigated using methylation sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP). Results suggest that Se may be an activator of particular classes of genes that are involved in tolerance to abiotic stresses. In particular, PSY (phytoene synthase) gene, essential for maintaining leaf carotenoid contents, SDH (sorbitol dehydrogenase), whose activity regulates the level of important osmolytes during drought stress and ADH (alcohol dehydrogenase), whose activity

  8. Soil Selenium (Se) Biofortification Changes the Physiological, Biochemical and Epigenetic Responses to Water Stress in Zea mays L. by Inducing a Higher Drought Tolerance (United States)

    Bocchini, Marika; D’Amato, Roberto; Ciancaleoni, Simona; Fontanella, Maria C.; Palmerini, Carlo A.; Beone, Gian M.; Onofri, Andrea; Negri, Valeria; Marconi, Gianpiero; Albertini, Emidio; Businelli, Daniela


    Requiring water and minerals to grow and to develop its organs, Maize (Zea mays L.) production and distribution is highly rainfall-dependent. Current global climatic changes reveal irregular rainfall patterns and this could represent for maize a stressing condition resulting in yield and productivity loss around the world. It is well known that low water availability leads the plant to adopt a number of metabolic alterations to overcome stress or reduce its effects. In this regard, selenium (Se), a trace element, can help reduce water damage caused by the overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Here we report the effects of exogenous Se supply on physiological and biochemical processes that may influence yield and quality of maize under drought stress conditions. Plants were grown in soil fertilized by adding 150 mg of Se (sodium selenite). We verified the effects of drought stress and Se treatment. Selenium biofortification proved more beneficial for maize plants when supplied at higher Se concentrations. The increase in proline, K concentrations and nitrogen metabolism in aerial parts of plants grown in Se-rich substrates, seems to prove that Se-biofortification increased plant resistance to water shortage conditions. Moreover, the increase of SeMeSeCys and SeCys2 forms in roots and aerial parts of Se-treated plants suggest resistance strategies to Se similar to those existing in Se-hyperaccumulator species. In addition, epigenetic changes in DNA methylation due to water stress and Se treatment were also investigated using methylation sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP). Results suggest that Se may be an activator of particular classes of genes that are involved in tolerance to abiotic stresses. In particular, PSY (phytoene synthase) gene, essential for maintaining leaf carotenoid contents, SDH (sorbitol dehydrogenase), whose activity regulates the level of important osmolytes during drought stress and ADH (alcohol dehydrogenase), whose activity

  9. Soil Selenium (Se Biofortification Changes the Physiological, Biochemical and Epigenetic Responses to Water Stress in Zea mays L. by Inducing a Higher Drought Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marika Bocchini


    Full Text Available Requiring water and minerals to grow and to develop its organs, Maize (Zea mays L. production and distribution is highly rainfall-dependent. Current global climatic changes reveal irregular rainfall patterns and this could represent for maize a stressing condition resulting in yield and productivity loss around the world. It is well known that low water availability leads the plant to adopt a number of metabolic alterations to overcome stress or reduce its effects. In this regard, selenium (Se, a trace element, can help reduce water damage caused by the overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS. Here we report the effects of exogenous Se supply on physiological and biochemical processes that may influence yield and quality of maize under drought stress conditions. Plants were grown in soil fertilized by adding 150 mg of Se (sodium selenite. We verified the effects of drought stress and Se treatment. Selenium biofortification proved more beneficial for maize plants when supplied at higher Se concentrations. The increase in proline, K concentrations and nitrogen metabolism in aerial parts of plants grown in Se-rich substrates, seems to prove that Se-biofortification increased plant resistance to water shortage conditions. Moreover, the increase of SeMeSeCys and SeCys2 forms in roots and aerial parts of Se-treated plants suggest resistance strategies to Se similar to those existing in Se-hyperaccumulator species. In addition, epigenetic changes in DNA methylation due to water stress and Se treatment were also investigated using methylation sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP. Results suggest that Se may be an activator of particular classes of genes that are involved in tolerance to abiotic stresses. In particular, PSY (phytoene synthase gene, essential for maintaining leaf carotenoid contents, SDH (sorbitol dehydrogenase, whose activity regulates the level of important osmolytes during drought stress and ADH (alcohol dehydrogenase, whose

  10. Irregular menses: an independent risk factor for gestational diabetes mellitus. (United States)

    Haver, Mary Claire; Locksmith, Gregory J; Emmet, Emily


    Our purpose was to determine whether a history of irregular menses predicts gestational diabetes mellitus independently of traditional risk factors. We analyzed demographic characteristics, body mass index, and menstrual history of 85 pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus and compared them with 85 systematically selected control subjects who were matched for age, race, and delivery year. Subjects with pregestational diabetes mellitus, previous gestational diabetes mellitus, family history of diabetes mellitus, weight >200 pounds, previous macrosomic infants, or previous stillbirth were excluded. Demographic characteristics between case and control groups were similar. Mean body mass index was higher among cases (26.5 kg/m(2)) versus control subjects (24.5 kg/m(2), P =.004). Irregular cycles were more prevalent in the cases (24% vs 7%, P =.006). With the use of body mass index as a stratification factor, menstrual irregularity maintained a strong association with gestational diabetes mellitus (P =.014). A history of irregular menstrual cycles was a significant independent predictor of gestational diabetes mellitus. If selective screening is implemented for gestational diabetes mellitus, such history should be considered in the decision of whom to test.

  11. Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought (United States)

    Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.


    The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and

  12. A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L


    We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

  13. The physiology mechanisms on drought tolerance and adaptation of biological soil crust moss Bryum argenteum and Didymodon vinealis in Tenger Desert (United States)

    Zhao, X.; Shi, Y.; Chen, C.; Jia, R.; Li, X.


    Bryum argenteum Hedw. and Didymodon vinealis Brid are two dominant moss species in the restored vegetation area in Tenger Desert, which sampled from biological soil crusts and where is an extreme drought regions. We found that they resorted to different osmotic adjustment strategies to mitigate osmotic stress. Under the gradual drought stress, both Bryum argenteum and Didymodon vinealis accumulated K+ and soluble sugar such as sucrose and trehalose. Their glycine betaine contents both decreased, while their proline content had no significant change. With enhanced drought stress, Bryum argenteum's Na+ content was low and decreased significantly, whereas Didymodon vinealis's Na+ content increased sharply and reached to a high level. We found the different of the mechanism of between active oxygen scavenging on Enzymatic and non - enzymatic system in two species moss of Bryum argenteum Hedw and Didymodon vinealis Brid under extreme drought stress. The result showed that two species of Moss of SOD activity gradually enhanced, and they have the material basis for effectively eliminates in vivo of Superoxide free radical. POD in Didymodon nigrescen and CAT in Bryum argeneum are major resistance o oxidative stress effects. The content of GSH rise with the stress also enhanced. The mechanism of finding Bryum argenteum Hedw and Didymodon vinealis Brid tolerance of dehydration ability were focus on different direction, but they are all given positive response to stress and enhance resistance. We investigated the responses of signal transduction substances to gradual drought stress in Didymodon vinealis and Bryum argenteum. The results suggested that: under gradual drought stress, the activities of TP H+-ATPase and PM H+-ATPase of Didymodon vinealis and Bryum argenteum both increased, resulting in their increase of K+ contents and turgor pressures, and triggered biosynthesis of signal transduction substances. ABA had no obvious effect in signal transduction of Bryum argenteum

  14. Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management (United States)

    Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.


    Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

  15. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information (United States)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.


    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple