WorldWideScience

Sample records for investigating population declines

  1. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

  2. Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik P. Van Dalen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

  3. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  4. A method for investigating population declines of migratory birds using stable isotopes: origins of harvested lesser scaup in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith A Hobson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging.Here we used hydrogen isotopes (deltaD to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999-2000 (n = 412 and 2000-2001 (n = 455. We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, deltaD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of deltaD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual deltaD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys.Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60 degrees N versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography.

  5. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  6. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  7. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  8. Population Genetic Aspects of Pollinator Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Packer

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed the theory of conservation genetics, with special emphasis on the influence of haplodiploidy and other aspects of bee biology upon conservation genetic parameters. We then investigated the possibility that pollinator decline can be addressed in this way, using two meta-analytical approaches on genetic data from the Hymenoptera and the Lepidoptera. First, we compared levels of heterozygosity between the orders. As has been found previously, the haplodiploid Hymenoptera had markedly lower levels of genetic variation than the Lepidoptera. Bees had even lower levels, and bumble bees, in particular, often seemed almost monomorphic genetically. However, the statistically confounding effects of phylogeny render detailed interpretation of such data difficult. Second, we investigated patterns of gene flow among populations of these insects. Hymenoptera were far more likely to show genetic effects of population fragmentation than are Lepidoptera, even at similar geographic distances between populations. The reduced effective population sizes resulting from haplodiploidy probably contributed to this result. The proportion of species with low levels of gene flow did not vary among the different taxonomic groups within the Hymenoptera.

  9. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  10. The Role of Responses to Experiences of Rural Population Decline in the Social Capital of Families

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elshof, Hans; Bailey, Ajay

    2015-01-01

    Population decline in rural areas has an impact on rural villages. This research investigates to what extent families with children in rural villages experience consequences of population decline, in which ways they respond to these experiences, and how that plays a role in their individual social

  11. AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

  12. ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

  13. Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

  14. Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

    2012-02-01

    Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

  15. Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

    2009-12-01

    There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

  16. Identifying causes for population decline of the brown hare in agricultural landscapes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz

    In recent decades the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) population in Denmark has undergone a substantial decline, but proximate causes are unknown and little is known about actual densities. In this thesis, hare populations are investigated with respect to age composition and reproductive parameters...... proportions in game bags have dropped significantly since the 1950ies. Simple matrix population models with variable juvenile recruitment predict the similar population growth rates as actually observed in the annual bag records. The model substantiates the supposition that declines in the Danish hare...

  17. Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A Ross; Owen, Stewart F; Peters, James; Zhang, Yong; Soffker, Marta; Paull, Gregory C; Hosken, David J; Wahab, M Abdul; Tyler, Charles R

    2015-03-17

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.

  18. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  19. Addressing wild turkey population declines using structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Schiavone, Michael V.; Swift, Bryan L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Siemer, William F.; Decker, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    We present a case study from New York, USA, of the use of structured decision making (SDM) to identify fall turkey harvest regulations that best meet stakeholder objectives, in light of recent apparent declines in abundance of wild turkeys in the northeastern United States. We used the SDM framework to incorporate the multiple objectives associated with turkey hunting, stakeholder desires, and region-specific ecological and environmental factors that could influence fall harvest. We identified a set of 4 fall harvest regulations, composed of different season lengths and bag limits, and evaluated their relative achievement of the objectives. We used a stochastic turkey population model, statistical modeling, and expert elicitation to evaluate the consequences of each harvest regulation on each of the objectives. We conducted a statewide mail survey of fall turkey hunters in New York to gather the necessary information to evaluate tradeoffs among multiple objectives associated with hunter satisfaction. The optimal fall harvest regulation was a 2-week season and allowed for the harvest of 1 bird/hunter. This regulation was the most conservative of those evaluated, reflecting the concerns about recent declines in turkey abundance among agency wildlife biologists and the hunting public. Depending on the region of the state, the 2-week, 1-bird regulation was predicted to result in 7–32% more turkeys on the landscape after 5 years. The SDM process provided a transparent framework for setting fall turkey harvest regulations and reduced potential stakeholder conflict by explicitly taking the multiple objectives of different stakeholder groups into account.

  20. FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

  1. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia; Thimma, Manjula; Kumaran, M.; Sougrat, Rachid; Irigoien, Xabier

    2016-01-01

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  2. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia

    2016-10-20

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  3. Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

    2018-01-22

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates

  4. Breeding season food limitation drives population decline of the Little Owl Athene noctua in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Sunde, Peter; Jacobsen, Lars B.

    2010-01-01

    landscape, has declined over most of northwestern Europe, including Denmark. We investigated the likely reasons for the population decline in Denmark by identifying patterns of local extinction (scale, 5 x 5 km2) and estimating demographic parameters affecting local survival, focusing on changes over time...

  5. UV-B Radiation Contributes to Amphibian Population Declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew

    2007-05-01

    UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation is the most significant biologically damaging radiation at the terrestrial surface. At the organismal level, UV-B radiation can slow growth rates, cause immune dysfunction and result in sublethal damage. UV-B radiation can lead to mutations and cell death. Over evolutionary time, UV radiation has been an important stressor on living organisms. Natural events, including impacts from comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, supernova explosions and solar flares, can cause large-scale ozone depletion with accompanying increases in UV radiation. However, these natural events are transient. Moreover, the amount of ozone damage due to natural events depends upon a number of variables, including the magnitude of the event. This is different from modern-day human-induced production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals that deplete stratospheric ozone continuously, resulting in long-term increases in UV-B radiation at the surface of the earth. We will briefly review the effects of UV-B exposure in one group of aquatic organisms_amphibians. UV-B has been implicated as a possible factor contributing to global declines and range reductions in amphibian populations.

  6. Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

  7. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  8. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  9. POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

    1997-01-01

    Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

  10. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL POPULATION DECLINE FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haartsen, Tialda; Van Wissen, Leo

    During the past few years, the Dutch education system has been confronted with a sharp decline in the number of pupils. Especially in rural villages, inhabitants fear for the closure of their local primary school, which is perceived as a very negative development for local village life. This paper

  11. Reliability of genetic bottleneck tests for detecting recent population declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peery, M. Zachariah; Kirby, Rebecca; Reid, Brendan N.; Stoelting, Ricka; Doucet-Beer, Elena; Robinson, Stacie; Vasquez-Carrillo, Catalina; Pauli, Jonathan N.; Palsboll, Per J.

    The identification of population bottlenecks is critical in conservation because populations that have experienced significant reductions in abundance are subject to a variety of genetic and demographic processes that can hasten extinction. Genetic bottleneck tests constitute an appealing and

  12. Nigeria's Population Policy and Future Fertility Decline | Mba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, promulgated its first explicit population policy in 1988, in response to the soaring population growth rate that impedes developmental efforts. The policy document has stipulated a number of quantitative demographic targets. Paramount ...

  13. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

    2007-12-04

    Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

  14. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  15. Investigating Stakeholder Perceptions of Fish Decline: Making Sense of Multiple Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Horowitz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholders have different educational backgrounds, personal experiences and priorities that contribute to different perceptions about what causes natural resource decline and how to sustain a resource. Yet stakeholders have a common interest, which is to keep the resource of interest from declining. Effective co-management requires sharing of perceptions pertaining to the sustainability of a resource and making decisions that benefit all stakeholders. Therefore, this study used modified causal networks, referred to here as mental models, to elicit and compare stakeholder perceptions about fish decline in the Danajon Bank, Philippines. Perceptions were elicited from three types of stakeholders, each composed of two or three elicitation groups: fishers, local government and environmental organizations. Data were also elicited through semi-structured discussions to investigate why perceptions differed and how stakeholders communicated with one another. Hierarchical clustering revealed two broad clusters of similar perceptions about drivers of fish decline: one being environmental groups and the second being local government and fisher groups. Stakeholder communication patterns revealed that communication was weakest between environmental groups and fishers. A likely contributing factor for the lack of shared perceptions was that knowledge-sharing was constrained by the small number of environmental personnel available to exchange information effectively with the much larger number of fishers and local government personnel. To better co-manage fish populations in Danajon Bank, we suggest modifications to the governance framework to improve knowledge-sharing and social and ecological outcomes.

  16. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable ... School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110 067, India .... Ghat region to meet international market demands is an example ...

  17. Family planning, population policy and declining birth rates in Yugoslavia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malacic, J

    1989-01-01

    Although Yugoslavia has below-replacement fertility (a net reproduction rate in 1986 of 0.92), there are vast regional differentials. In the less developed autonomous province of Kosovo, for example, the population has doubled in the past 30 years. By region, the net reproduction rate ranges from a low of 0.83 in Croatia to a high of 1.80 in Kosovo. Until the late 1970s, when pronatalism and centralized economic planning had weakened in influence, there was an avoidance of demographic planning and policy. In 1975, the Federal Assembly issued a document on the country's demographic patterns and goals and called on republics and autonomous provinces to adapt the document to local situations--a step that was not taken. By the 1980s, the deteriorating political, economic, and demographic situation in regions with high fertility forced more explicit attention to the formulation of a national population policy. The 1989 Resolution on Population Development Policy and Family Planning sets the goal of replacement- level fertility for both high and low fertility regions and calls for an integrated approach to population issues and socioeconomic development. Decentralization, however, has represented a major obstacle to the execution of federal policy at the republic and lower local levels. While this is a chronic problem that must be addressed on the macro level, some progress could be achieved in problematic regions such as Kosovo through educational campaigns aimed at convincing individual couples of the advantages of family size of 2-3 children.

  18. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable landscape management; traditional ecological management ... biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for ...... the upland central region of Mexico, as a response to.

  19. Is Declining malaria vector population in Africa a result of intervention Measures or sampling tools inefficiency?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliningaya Kweka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent entomological surveys have shown a declining trend of malaria vector population in sub-Saharan Africa and the observation have beenassociated with the scale-up and intensive use of malaria intervention measures such as insecticides treated nets and insecticide residual sprays.However, little is known on the contribution of the mosquito sampling tools inefficiency on the declining trends of malaria vector population. Inthis commentary paper, we explore the possibility of contribution of mosquito sampling tools’ inefficiency to the observed declining trends ofmalaria vector population in Africa.

  20. Population and colony-level determinants of tertiary sex ratio in the declining barn swallow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    Full Text Available Sex ratio of adults (tertiary sex ratio, TSR is a major feature of animal populations with consequences for their behaviour, genetic structure and viability. Spatial and temporal variation in TSR occurs within species but the mechanisms behind it are poorly understood. In this long-term study of a declining population of a socially monogamous, colonial, migratory bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, we first analyzed population-level variation in TSR ( =  proportion of males of yearlings at sexual maturation in relation to ecological conditions as gauged by annual survival rate of adults. TSR was male-biased both among yearlings and older individuals, but male bias of yearlings was more pronounced after years with larger decline in adult survival. Thus, male offspring were less susceptible to the adverse ecological conditions that cause increased mortality. Dispersal and settling site decisions can have major consequences on fitness via the effects of local TSR on mating and sperm competition. Breeding barn swallows are highly philopatric while natal dispersal is high and, together with mortality, is the main determinant of colony TSR. We thus also investigated the mechanisms of breeding colony choice by yearlings and found that TSR of new-settlers in a given colony and year was negatively predicted by TSR of returning, early arriving older individuals in that year, but not by overall TSR at the colony in the previous year. This suggests that in our male-biased population new-settler males respond to local TSR upon arrival to choose the sites with larger breeding opportunities. Hence, variation in ecological conditions as reflected by adult survival can shift the TSR of individuals recruiting into a local population, with potentially various demographic consequences. However, breeding site choice based on TSR tends to homogenize TSR at a population level likely by facilitating settling of dispersing males in colonies with less male

  1. Assay dependence of Brucella antibody prevalence in a declining Alaskan harbor seal (Phoca vitulina population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueffer Karsten

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Brucella is a group of bacteria that causes brucellosis, which can affect population health and reproductive success in many marine mammals. We investigated the serological prevalence of antibodies against Brucella bacteria in a declining harbor seal population in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Results Prevalence ranged from 16 to 74 percent for those tests detecting antibodies, indicating that harbor seals in Glacier Bay have been exposed to Brucella bacteria. However, the actual level of serological prevalence could not be determined because results were strongly assay-dependent. Conclusions This study reinforces the need to carefully consider assay choice when comparing different studies on the prevalence of anti–Brucella antibodies in pinnipeds and further highlights the need for species- or taxon-specific assay validation for both pathogen and host species.

  2. Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

  3. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  4. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  5. Chronic wasting disease drives population decline of white-tailed deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant; Lindzey, Frederick G.; Cook, Walter; Kreeger, Terry J.; Grogan, Ronald; Cornish, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

  6. Trapped in the extinction vortex? Strong genetic effects in a declining vertebrate population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larsson Mikael

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity are expected to increase the extinction risk of small populations, but detailed tests in natural populations are scarce. We combine long-term population and fitness data with those from two types of molecular markers to examine the role of genetic effects in a declining metapopulation of southern dunlins Calidris alpina schinzii, an endangered shorebird. Results The decline is associated with increased pairings between related individuals, including close inbreeding (as revealed by both field observations of parentage and molecular markers. Furthermore, reduced genetic diversity seems to affect individual fitness at several life stages. Higher genetic similarity between mates correlates negatively with the pair's hatching success. Moreover, offspring produced by related parents are more homozygous and suffer from increased mortality during embryonic development and possibly also after hatching. Conclusions Our results demonstrate strong genetic effects in a rapidly declining population, emphasizing the importance of genetic factors for the persistence of small populations.

  7. Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

    2009-09-01

    Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

  8. Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

    2012-05-01

    Declines in numbers by several wader species in Britain have been linked to climate change, but the mechanism for the declines has rarely been explored. Britain lies at the northern end of the East Atlantic Flyway, and supports 1.3 million out of the Flyway's 8.5 million coastal waders (Charadrii) in winter and the Purple Sandpiper is one of the species whose numbers have declined. Here, we examine the dynamics of the decline as observed in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland, investigating whether the decline was due to poorer apparent survival (return rate) or poorer recruitment of young birds. The maximum number in the Moray Firth declined from 860 in 1987/88 to 236 in 2006/07, with some increase during winters 2007/08 and 2008/09. At the three main high-tide roosts (Balintore, Lossiemouth and Buckie) the maximum combined number declined from 574 to 90. Changes in survival and recruitment (percentage of first-year birds) were examined at these roosts from captured samples, which were ringed and recaptured. There were no significant changes between winters in survival rates, nor were there differences between the survival rates of age groups (first-year and adult) or bill size groups, which represented birds of different sex and breeding origin. Annual survival estimates for the three roosts ranged from 72 to 77%. The percentage of first-year birds varied among roosts and years; the lowest values were during the late 1980s/early 1990s and early 2000s. A free-running population model incorporating varying percentages of first-year birds and constant mortality for each roost provided a plausible explanation for the decline. Although modelled numbers followed the observed pattern, a discrepancy in one year was carried forward in subsequent years, so that the fit with the observed numbers was parallel rather than similar. However, it seems that the decline in numbers was largely due to poorer recruitment. We discuss whether breeding success had declined, whether the

  9. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.; Packer, Craig

    2015-01-01

    At a regional scale, lion populations in West, Central, and East Africa are likely to suffer a projected 50% decline over the next two decades, whereas lion populations are only increasing in southern Africa. Many lion populations are either now gone or expected to disappear within the next few decades to the extent that the intensively managed populations in southern Africa may soon supersede the iconic savannah landscapes in East Africa as the most successful sites for lion conservation. Th...

  10. Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

    2017-09-20

    Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

  11. Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

  12. Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2014-01-01

    Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

  13. Glutathione S-transferase genotypes modify lung function decline in the general population: SAPALDIA cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ackermann-Liebrich Ursula

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the environmental and genetic risk factors of accelerated lung function decline in the general population is a first step in a prevention strategy against the worldwide increasing respiratory pathology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Deficiency in antioxidative and detoxifying Glutathione S-transferase (GST gene has been associated with poorer lung function in children, smokers and patients with respiratory diseases. In the present study, we assessed whether low activity variants in GST genes are also associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general adult population. Methods We examined with multiple regression analysis the association of polymorphisms in GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 genes with annual decline in FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 during 11 years of follow-up in 4686 subjects of the prospective SAPALDIA cohort representative of the Swiss general population. Effect modification by smoking, gender, bronchial hyperresponisveness and age was studied. Results The associations of GST genotypes with FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 were comparable in direction, but most consistent for FEV1. GSTT1 homozygous gene deletion alone or in combination with GSTM1 homozygous gene deletion was associated with excess decline in FEV1 in men, but not women, irrespective of smoking status. The additional mean annual decline in FEV1 in men with GSTT1 and concurrent GSTM1 gene deletion was -8.3 ml/yr (95% confidence interval: -12.6 to -3.9 relative to men without these gene deletions. The GSTT1 effect on the FEV1 decline comparable to the observed difference in FEV1 decline between never and persistent smoking men. Effect modification by gender was statistically significant. Conclusion Our results suggest that genetic GSTT1 deficiency is a prevalent and strong determinant of accelerated lung function decline in the male general population.

  14. Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing, as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

  15. Waist Circumference, Not Body Mass Index, Is Associated with Renal Function Decline in Korean Population: Hallym Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyunju; Quan, Shan Ai; Jeong, Jin-Young; Jang, Soong-Nang; Lee, Jung Eun; Kim, Dong-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective investigation of obesity and renal function decline in Asia is sparse. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with renal function decline in a prospective study of Korean population. Methods A total of 454 participants who had baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels of more than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in Hallym Aging Study (HAS) were included and followed for 6 years. Renal function decline was defined as follows: (1) an eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 82 cases); (2) an eGFR decrease of 20% or greater (n = 87 cases) at follow-up; (3) an eGFR decrease of 20% greater at follow-up or eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 91 cases); and (4) an eGFR 95 cm in men or >90 cm in women with ≤90 cm in men or ≤85 cm in women, ORs (95% CIs) ranged from 2.31 (1.14–4.69) to 2.78 (1.19–6.50) for the 4 definitions of renal function decline (all p-values for trend Korean population. Our results provide important evidence that simple measurement of central fat deposition rather than BMI could predict decline in renal function in Korean population. PMID:23536858

  16. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

    2018-04-01

    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  17. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  18. Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

  19. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  20. Population recovery following decline in an endangered stream-breeding frog (Mixophyes fleayi from subtropical Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Alan Newell

    Full Text Available Amphibians have undergone dramatic declines and extinctions worldwide. Prominent among these have been the stream-breeding frogs in the rainforests of eastern Australia. The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd has been postulated as the primary cause of these declines. We conducted a capture-mark-recapture study over a 7-year period on the endangered Fleay's barred frog (Mixophyes fleayi at two independent streams (30 km apart in order to assess the stability of these populations. This species had undergone a severe decline across its narrow geographic range. Mark-recapture modelling showed that the number of individuals increased 3-10 fold along stream transects over this period. Frog detection probabilities were frequently above 50% but declined as the populations increased. Adult survival was important to overall population persistence in light of low recruitment events, suggesting that longevity may be a key factor in this recovery. One male and female were present in the capture record for >6 years. This study provides an unambiguous example of population recovery in the presence of Bd.

  1. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

    OpenAIRE

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in...

  2. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melia T DeVivo

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus, Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni, and moose (Alces alces shirasi in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ. Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  3. Population decline in the Delta caribou herd with reference to other Alaskan herds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg et al.

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available After growing continuously for nearly 15 years, the Delta caribou herd began to decline in 1989. Most other Interior Alaskan herds also began declining. In the Delta herd, and in other herds, the declines were caused primarily by high summer mortality of calves and increased natural mortality of adult females. Other minor causes included increased winter mortality of calves, and reduced parturition rates of 3-year-old and older females. The decline in the Delta herd also coincided with increased wolf (Canis lupus numbers, winters with deeper than normal snow, and warm summers. Mean body weight of annual samples of 10-month-old female calves was consistently low during the decline. Except in some of the smallest Interior Alaskan herds, we conclude that evidence for population regulation in Alaskan caribou is weak, and that herds are likely to fluctuate within a wide range of densities due to complex interactions of predation and weather. Unless wolf numbers are influenced by man, the size of a caribou herd in a given year is likely to be largely a function of its size during the previous population low and the number of years of favorable weather in the interim.

  4. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-07-25

    The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high-even in "species of low concern." In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a "biological annihilation" to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.

  5. Achieving population-level violence declines: implications of the international crime drop for prevention programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisner, Manuel; Nivette, Amy; Murray, Aja Louise; Krisch, Maria

    2016-09-01

    The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations for the period 2016-2030 aim to achieve a substantial reduction of interpersonal violence. An increasing body of evidence of what works, emerging from randomized controlled trials, can inform public health policy decisions. However, there is very limited evidence on the kinds of mechanisms that lead to sustained declines in interpersonal violence at the population level. We discuss the implications of what is known about recent major declines in violence to guide violence-reduction policies.

  6. Effect of Early Referral to Specialist in Dementia on Institutionalization and Functional Decline: Findings from a Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimouguet, Clément; Le-Goff, Mélanie; Rizzuto, Debora; Berr, Claudine; Leffondré, Karen; Pérès, Karine; Dartigues, Jean FranÇois; Helmer, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Although early diagnosis has been hypothesized to benefit both patients and caregivers, until now studies evaluating the effect of early dementia diagnosis are lacking. To investigate the influence of early specialist referral for dementia on the risk of institutionalization and functional decline in Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Incident dementia cases were screened in a prospective population-based cohort, the Three-City Study, and initial specialist consultation for cognitive complaint was assessed at dementia diagnosis. Proportional hazard regression and illness-death models were used to test the association between specialist referral and, respectively, institutionalization and functional decline. Only one third of the incident individuals with dementia had consulted a specialist for cognitive problems early (36%). After adjustment on potential confounders (including cognitive and functional decline) and competing risk of death, participants who had consulted a specialist early in the disease course presented a higher rate of being institutionalized than those who did not (Hazard Ratio = 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09- 3.64). But early specialist referral was not associated with further functional decline (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.71- 1.67). Early specialist referral in dementia is associated with increased risk of institutionalization but not with functional decline in ADL. These findings suggest that early care referral in dementia may be a marker of concern for patients and/or caregivers; subsequent medical and social care could be suboptimal or inappropriate to allow patients to stay longer at home.

  7. Exposure of harbour seals Phoca vitulina to Brucella in declining populations across Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershaw, Joanna L; Stubberfield, Emma J; Foster, Geoffrey; Brownlow, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa J; Perrett, Lorraine L

    2017-09-20

    Since 2000 there has been a major decline in the abundance of Scottish harbour seals Phoca vitulina. The causes of the decline remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to establish the extent to which the seals in the regions of greatest decline have been exposed to Brucella, a bacterial pathogen that causes reproductive failure in terrestrial mammalian hosts. Tissues from dead seals collected between 1992 and 2013 were cultured for Brucella (n = 150). Serum samples collected from live capture-released seals (n = 343) between 1997 and 2012 were tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal plate agglutination test (RBT) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). In total, 16% of seals cultured had Brucella isolated from one or more tissues, but there were no pathological signs of infection. The cELISA results were more sensitive than the RBT results, showing that overall 25.4% of seals were seropositive, with the highest seroprevalence in juveniles. As there was no evidence of either a higher seroprevalence or higher circulating antibody levels in seropositive animals in the areas with the greatest declines, it was concluded that Brucella infection is likely not a major contributing factor to recent declines. However, the consistently high proportion of seals exposed to Brucella indicates possible endemicity in these populations, likely due to B. pinnipedialis, which has demonstrated a preference for pinniped hosts. Importantly, given the close proximity between seals, humans and livestock in many areas, there is the potential for cross-species infections.

  8. Attributing mortality among drivers of population decline in Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. E.; Miller, M. W.

    2012-06-01

    Acropora palmata populations have experienced steep declines over the past 30 years. Although numerous culprits are recognized, their relative contributions to the decline are poorly quantified, making it difficult to prioritize effective conservation measures. In 2004, a demographic monitoring program was implemented in the Florida Keys (USA), aimed at determining the relative importance of various stressors affecting A. palmata. A subset of randomly selected A. palmata colonies within 15 fore-reef plots was tagged and surveyed three to four times per year over 7 years. Colony size, live tissue, prevalence of disease, snail ( Coralliophila abbreviata) predation, physical damage and other conditions were assessed at each survey. The estimated effect of each condition causing recent mortality was ranked, and together, these parameters were used to attribute the population-level tissue loss associated with each condition. In addition, all new colonies in the study plots were counted and assessed annually in order to track trends in total colony count and live tissue abundance. Between 2004 and 2010, the study population has shown more than 50% decline in live area from three main conditions: fragmentation, disease and snail predation. Approximately half of this decline occurred during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season from which recovery has been minimal. Meanwhile, colony abundance has shown gradual decline throughout the study. Snail predation was the most prevalent condition. However, it ranked third in attributed tissue loss, behind breakage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season, and disease. Thermal bleaching of A. palmata was not observed during this study. Because mortality continues to outpace recruitment and growth, intervention to ameliorate losses to the more manageable threats including predation and breakage could result in substantial conservation of live tissue, buying time for the abatement of less tractable threats to A. palmata

  9. Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (effects and there is still little information on the time scale of population recovery for species that decline in abundance after fire. In 2003, a large wildfire in Montana (USA) burned the watersheds of four of eight streams that we sampled for larval Rocky Mountain tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity (negative effects of burn extent on larval abundance weakened> 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

  10. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

    2017-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  11. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth ra...

  12. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  13. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wood, K.A.; Newth, J.L.; Hilton, G.M.; Nolet, B.A.; Rees, E.C.

    2016-01-01

    Population declines among migratory Arctic-breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In

  14. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  15. Decline of heterozygosity in a large but isolated population: a 45-year examination of moose genetic diversity on Isle Royale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renae L. Sattler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife conservation and management approaches typically focus on demographic measurements to assess population viability over both short and long periods. However, genetic diversity is an important predictor of long term population vitality. We investigated the pattern of change in genetic diversity in a large and likely isolated moose (Alces alces population on Isle Royale (Lake Superior from 1960–2005. We characterized samples, partitioned into five different 5-year periods, using nine microsatellite loci and a portion of the mtDNA control region. We also simulated the moose population to generate a theoretical backdrop of genetic diversity change. In the empirical data, we found that the number of alleles was consistently low and that observed heterozygosity notably declined from 1960 to 2005 (p = 0.08, R2 = 0.70. Furthermore, inbreeding coefficients approximately doubled from 0.08 in 1960–65 to 0.16 in 2000–05. Finally, we found that the empirical rate of observed heterozygosity decline was faster than the rate of observed heterozygosity loss in our simulations. Combined, these data suggest that genetic drift and inbreeding occurred in the Isle Royale moose populations over the study period, leading to significant losses in heterozygosity. Although inbreeding can be mitigated by migration, we found no evidence to support the occurrence of recent migrants into the population using analysis of our mtDNA haplotypes nor microsatellite data. Therefore, the Isle Royale moose population illustrates that even large populations are subjected to inbreeding in the absence of migration.

  16. Sudden deaths and colony population decline in Greek honey bee colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacandritsos, N; Granato, A; Budge, G; Papanastasiou, I; Roinioti, E; Caldon, M; Falcaro, C; Gallina, A; Mutinelli, F

    2010-11-01

    During June and July of 2009, sudden deaths, tremulous movements and population declines of adult honey bees were reported by the beekeepers in the region of Peloponnesus (Mt. Mainalo), Greece. A preliminary study was carried out to investigate these unexplained phenomena in this region. In total, 37 bee samples, two brood frames containing honey bee brood of various ages, eight sugar samples and four sugar patties were collected from the affected colonies. The samples were tested for a range of pests, pathogens and pesticides. Symptomatic adult honey bees tested positive for Varroa destructor, Nosema ceranae, Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV), Acute paralysis virus (ABPV), Deformed wing virus (DWV), Sacbrood virus (SBV) and Black queen cell virus (BQCV), but negative for Acarapis woodi. American Foulbrood was absent from the brood samples. Chemical analysis revealed that amitraz, thiametoxan, clothianidin and acetamiprid were all absent from symptomatic adult bees, sugar and sugar patty samples. However, some bee samples, were contaminated with imidacloprid in concentrations between 14 ng/g and 39 ng/g tissue. We present: the infection of Greek honey bees by multiple viruses; the presence of N. ceranae in Greek honey bees and the first record of imidacloprid (neonicotonoid) residues in Greek honey bee tissues. The presence of multiple pathogens and pesticides made it difficult to associate a single specific cause to the depopulation phenomena observed in Greece, although we believe that viruses and N. ceranae synergistically played the most important role. A follow-up in-depth survey across all Greek regions is required to provide context to these preliminary findings. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Spatial behaviour of little owls (Athene noctua) in a declining low-density population in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunde, Peter; Thorup, Kasper; Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2009-01-01

    Knowledge of a species' spatial behaviour is essential for understanding its behavioural ecology and a prerequisite to planning of conservation strategies. The little owl has shown a substantial decline in North-western Europe and is on the road of extinction in Denmark. To quantify relevant...... aspects of spatial behaviour in the last remaining Danish population, we followed 27 radio-tagged owls representing 14 territories during a period of 2 years. Mated owls were resident at nesting sites year-round with half of all nocturnal locations found within 125 m. Nightly distance from roosts peaked...

  18. Using latent selection difference to model persistence in a declining population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara E Erickson

    Full Text Available Population persistence is a direct measure of the viability of a population. Monitoring the distribution of declining populations or subpopulations over time can yield estimates of persistence, which we show can be modeled as a latent selection difference (LSD contrasting attributes of sites where populations have persisted versus those that have not. Predicted persistence can be modeled with predictor covariates to identify factors correlated with species persistence. We demonstrate how to model persistence based on changes in occupancy that can include adjustments for detection probability. Using a known historical distribution of the western grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis, we adapted methods originally developed for occupancy modeling to evaluate how environmental covariates including emergent vegetation and human developments have affected western grebe persistence in Alberta. The relative probability of persistence was correlated with the extent of shoreline bulrush (Scirpus lacustris, which is important vegetation for nesting cover. We also documented that western grebe populations were less likely to persist on lakes in the boreal forest, primarily located on the northern boundary of the species' range. Factors influencing occupancy were different than those determining persistence by western grebes; persistence and occupancy were not correlated. Persistence was more likely on lakes with recreational development, reflecting reliance by grebes on the larger, fish-bearing waterbodies that also are attractive for lakeshore development. Unfortunately, the correlation with recreational development on Alberta's lakes puts grebes at risk for loss of brood-rearing habitats--primary threats to altricial birds--if steps are not taken to prevent disturbance to bulrush stands. Identifying factors related to the persistence of a species--especially one in decline--is a fundamental step in conservation management.

  19. Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

    2002-01-01

    ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

  20. Thyroid Antibodies, Autoimmunity and Cognitive Decline: Is There a Population-Based Link

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Napthali

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Autoimmunity is considered an uncommon but under-recognised cause of cognitive decline. Methods: Serum samples from 3,253 randomly selected subjects enrolled in the Hunter Community Study, aged 55-85 years, were assayed for thyrotropin stimulatory hormone, anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab, anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA and extractable nuclear antigens (ENA. Cognitive function was assessed using the Audio Recorded Cognitive Screen (ARCS tool. Results: TPO-Ab were found in 8.4% and ANA in 27.9% of the study population, of whom 3% had positive ENA findings. No relationship was found between the ARCS score and either TPO-Ab (coefficient = 0.133; 95% CI -0.20, 0.82, p = 0.616, ANA at a low (coefficient = 1.01; 95% CI -2.58, 0.55, p = 0.203 or a high titre (coefficient = -0.65; 95% CI -2.59, 1.28, p = 0.508, or ENA antibodies (coefficient = 5.12; 95% CI -0.53, 10.77; p = 0.076. Conclusions: Autoantibody findings are common in an aging population and are not associated with cognitive decline.

  1. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  2. Activity patterns and time budgets of the declining sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelatt, Thomas S.; Siniff, Donald B.; Estes, James A.

    2002-01-01

    Time budgets of predators may reflect population status if time spent foraging varies with local prey abun- dance. We assumed that the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, had been at equilibrium since the early 1960s and collected time budgets of otters to be used to represent future conditions of currently expanding sea otter populations. We used radiotelemetry to monitor activity-time budgets of otters from August 1992 to March 1994. Sea otter activity was directly linked to sex, age, weather condition, season, and time of day. Sea otters differed in percent time foraging among cohorts but not within cohorts. Percent time foraging ranged from 21% for females with very young (≤ 3weeks of age) dependent pups to 52% for females with old (≥10 weeks of age) pups. Otters foraged more and hauled out more as local sea conditions worsened. Adult males spent less time foraging during winter and spring, consistent with seasonal changes in prey selection. Time spent for- aging was similar to that reported for otters in California and an established population in Prince William Sound, Alaska, but greater than that of otters in recently established populations in Oregon and Alaska. Despite current evidence indicating that the population was in decline during our study, we were unable to recognize this change using time budgets. Our results illustrate the importance of stratifying analyses of activity patterns by age and sex cohorts and the complexity inherent in comparisons of behavioral data between different populations relying on distinct prey bases.

  3. When is a species declining? Optimizing survey effort to detect population changes in reptiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Sewell

    Full Text Available Biodiversity monitoring programs need to be designed so that population changes can be detected reliably. This can be problematical for species that are cryptic and have imperfect detection. We used occupancy modeling and power analysis to optimize the survey design for reptile monitoring programs in the UK. Surveys were carried out six times a year in 2009-2010 at multiple sites. Four out of the six species--grass snake, adder, common lizard, slow-worm -were encountered during every survey from March-September. The exceptions were the two rarest species--sand lizard and smooth snake--which were not encountered in July 2009 and March 2010 respectively. The most frequently encountered and most easily detected species was the slow-worm. For the four widespread reptile species in the UK, three to four survey visits that used a combination of directed transect walks and artificial cover objects resulted in 95% certainty that a species would be detected if present. Using artificial cover objects was an effective detection method for most species, considerably increased the detection rate of some, and reduced misidentifications. To achieve an 85% power to detect a decline in any of the four widespread species when the true decline is 15%, three surveys at a total of 886 sampling sites, or four surveys at a total of 688 sites would be required. The sampling effort needed reduces to 212 sites surveyed three times, or 167 sites surveyed four times, if the target is to detect a true decline of 30% with the same power. The results obtained can be used to refine reptile survey protocols in the UK and elsewhere. On a wider scale, the occupancy study design approach can be used to optimize survey effort and help set targets for conservation outcomes for regional or national biodiversity assessments.

  4. Decline in admissions for childhood asthma, a 26-year period population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikalsen, Ingvild Bruun; Skeiseid, Liliane; Tveit, Line Merete; Engelsvold, David Hugo; Øymar, Knut

    2015-12-01

    The prevalence of childhood asthma has increased, although the rate of hospitalization for asthma seems to decrease. In Norway, the rate of hospital admission for childhood asthma from 1984 to 2000 increased. The aim of this study was to assess further trends in hospital admissions for childhood asthma up to 2010. A population-based study including children 1-13 yrs of age hospitalized for asthma during six periods from 1984/1985 to 2009/2010 in Rogaland, Norway, was performed. Medical records from 1536 admissions (1050 children) were studied; and gender, age, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, medications and symptoms were recorded. For all age groups, the rate of admissions per 10.000 increased from 20.1 in 1984/85 to 33.7 in 1989/90, but declined to 14.4 in 2009/2010. Rates were highest in boys (OR 1.87; 95% CI: 1.69, 2.09), younger age groups (OR 2.51; 2.38, 2.64) and decreased from 1984 to 2010 (OR 0.92; 0.88, 0.94). The rates of readmissions were higher than for primary admissions (OR 1.33; 1.19, 1.47). From 1984 to 2010, there was an increased use of inhaled corticosteroids prior to admission (6 to 51%) and started at discharge (7 to 37%), and systemic steroids given during admission (19 to 83%). There has been a substantial decline in the rate of hospital admissions for childhood asthma after 1989/1990, with major differences between age groups and genders. The decline could be due to improved care of children with asthma or a real reduction in asthma exacerbations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

    2012-01-01

    Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

  6. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

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    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth rate figures in the 1960s, the populists’ views of the 1930s resurfaced in public discourse in the 1960s and 1970s and up to the present day. The concern about the increasing trend of single-child families in rural settlements as well as in urban areas appeared in the various works of Hungarian writers and journalists throughout the previous century. The present paper intends to focus on the intellectual background to the public debates on the population issue, outlining the accounts of the interwar ‘village explorers’ briefly, and the way they are related to the pre-Second World War populist movement. Finally the reappearance of the debates between populists and non-populists of the 1970s is discussed, a debate that is still continuing.

  7. Could Immigration Prevent Population Decline? The Demographic Prospects of Germany Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Weber

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Germany has a record of more than 40 years of below-replacement fertility and annual death surplus. Hence, it is commonly accepted that Germany’s population will decline considerably in the coming decades. Recent increases in immigration may, however, challenge the official long-term demographic projections for Germany. This paper assesses the impact of a permanent higher-than-expected level of net immigration to Germany as in the past three years on the projections for population, age structure and ethnic makeup by mid-century.The paper adds a higher immigration variant to the Federal Statistical Office’s latest Coordinated Population Projection and two variants of a (a constant or (b decreasing fertility rate among migrant women. It can be shown that with permanent net migration as high as in recent years (around 300,000 per annum, Germany’s population would not significantly decrease in the coming decades but would rather remain at 80 million until 2050. On the other hand, the sharp rise in the old-age dependency ratio is only mildly weakened by increased immigration rates. This issue is therefore probably best addressed by other (or additional means. The increase in retirees will level off after 2035 in any case. The ethnic makeup of society would be affected to a greater degree than its age composition: The share of first- and second-generation immigrants among the total population is projected to rise to about 35 percent in this scenario (and to above 40 percent if the third generation is also counted.

  8. Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, G W

    1983-01-01

    Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves

  9. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Dussex

    Full Text Available The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis. Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410, historical (n = 15 and fossil samples (n = 4 showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  10. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J; Robertson, Bruce C

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  11. Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

  12. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João P. Silva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax. Methods We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003–2006 and 2016 in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Results Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10–14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline compared to losses within SPA (25% decline. However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . Discussion In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  13. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, João P; Correia, Ricardo; Alonso, Hany; Martins, Ricardo C; D'Amico, Marcello; Delgado, Ana; Sampaio, Hugo; Godinho, Carlos; Moreira, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas) in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax . We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003-2006 and 2016) in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA) that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10-14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline) compared to losses within SPA (25% decline). However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  14. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  15. Breeding ecology of the southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, in an agrosystem of south–eastern Spain: the surprisingly excellent breeding success in a declining population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno-Rueda, G.; Abril-Colon, I.; Lopez-Orta, A.; Alvarez-Benito, I.; Castillo-Gomez, C.; Comas, M.; Rivas, J.M.

    2016-07-01

    The southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, is declining at the Spanish and European level. One cause of this decline could be low reproductive success due to low availability of prey in agricultural environments. To investigate this possibility we analysed the breeding ecology of a population of southern shrike in an agrosystem in Lomas de Padul (SE Spain). Our results suggest the population is declining in this area. However, contrary to expectations, the population showed the highest reproductive success (% nests in which at least one egg produces a fledgling) reported for this species to date (83.3%), with a productivity of 4.04 fledglings per nest. Reproductive success varied throughout the years, ranging from 75% in the worst year to 92.9% in the best year. Similarly, productivity ranged from 3.25 to 5.0 fledglings per nest depending on the year. Other aspects of reproductive biology, such as clutch size, brood size, and nestling diet, were similar to those reported in other studies. Based on these results, we hypothesise that the determinant of population decline acts on the juvenile fraction, drastically reducing the recruitment rate, or affecting the dispersion of adults and recruits. Nevertheless, the exact factor or factors are unknown. This study shows that a high reproductive success does not guarantee good health status of the population. (Author)

  16. Personality-Related Determinants of Subtle Cognitive Decline in Old Age: A Population-Based Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristelle Rodriguez

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Recent studies of cases with mild cognitive impairment (MCI suggested that besides Alzheimer disease (AD-related biomarkers, some personality dimensions are associated with progression to AD. To date, there are no studies addressing the psychological determinants of subtle cognitive decline in healthy elderly controls. Methods: 488 community-dwelling healthy controls were assessed with a detailed neuropsychological battery at baseline and an 18-month follow-up. Personality factors and facets were investigated at baseline using the NEO-Personality Inventory-Revised (NEO-PI-R. Upon follow-up, there were 264 stable controls (sCON and 224 deteriorating controls (dCON. Their personality data were compared to those of the 102 MCI cases using one-way analysis of variance and logistic regression models. Results: Significantly higher scores of Openness factor (as well as Aesthetics, Ideas and Values facets were found in sCON than in both dCON and MCI cases. The three groups did not differ in the other NEO-PI-R factor and facet scores. Openess factor (and the same facets was associated with cognitive preservation in healthy controls (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.87. Lower scores in the same factor and facets conferred higher risk to have MCI (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.79. Conclusion: Higher openness to new experiences and thoughts may be a protective factor against early cognitive decline in brain aging.

  17. A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

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    Alaine F. Camfield

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and population growth rate (λ for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1. We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10 and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The

  18. Rapid population decline in red knots : fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, AJ; Gonzalez, PM; Piersma, T; Niles, LJ; do Nascimento, IDS; Atkinson, PW; Clark, NA; Minton, CDT; Peck, MK; Aarts, G

    2004-01-01

    Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego,

  19. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Populations that are vulnerable to decline are of particular concern to wildlife managers and uncovering the mechanisms responsible for downward trends is a crucial step towards developing future viable populations. The aims of this study were to better understand the mechanisms behind the historic decline of the sable antelope, Hippotragus niger, population at the Malilangwe Wildlife Reserve (MWR, to assess its future viability and to use this analysis to determine key areas of breakdown in population growth and link these to potential limiting factors. VORTEX, a population viability model was used to assess the future viability of the sable antelope population and a sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the key areas of breakdown in growth. The sable population is currently viable, but remains highly vulnerable to changes in adult female survival, a factor which had the greatest influence on overall population fitness. Lion predation, impacting on the adult segment of the population, appeared to be the main factor responsible for the historic decline at the MWR.Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  20. Sixty years of anthropogenic pressure: a spatio-temporal genetic analysis of brown trout populations subject to stocking and population declines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Møller; Fraser, Dylan J.; Meier, Kristian

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of historical samples can provide invaluable information on changes to the genetic composition of natural populations resulting from human activities. Here, we analyse 21 microsatellite loci in historical (archived scales from 1927 to 1956) and contemporary samples of brown trout (Salmo...... trutta) from six neighbouring rivers in Denmark, to compare the genetic structure of wild populations before and after population declines and stocking with nonlocal strains of hatchery trout. We show that all populations have been strongly affected by stocking, with admixture proportions ranging from 14...... differences among populations in hatchery trout admixture proportions. Despite significant changes to the genetic composition within populations over time, dispersal rates among populations were roughly similar before and after stocking. We also assessed whether population declines or introgression...

  1. Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, D.L.; Cox, E.W.; Ballard, W.B.; Whitlaw, Heather A.; Lenarz, M.S.; Custer, T.W.; Barnett, T.; Fuller, T.K.

    2006-01-01

    Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke (Fascioloides magna) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or

  2. Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

    2015-01-01

    Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  3. Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum Populations in Malaria Declining Areas of Sabah, East Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Ridzuan Mohd Abd Razak

    .532. The genetic data from the present study highlighted the limited diversity and contrasting genetic pattern of P. falciparum populations in the malaria declining areas of Sabah.

  4. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

  5. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

    2011-01-01

    ) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...... of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009), the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline...... in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite...

  6. Ocean-wide Drivers of Migration Strategies and Their Influence on Population Breeding Performance in a Declining Seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Diamond, Antony; Erikstad, Kjell E; Fifield, Dave; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G; Hansen, Erpur S; Harris, Mike P; Jessopp, Mark; Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee; Kress, Steve; Mowat, Stephen; Perrins, Chris M; Petersen, Aevar; Petersen, Ib K; Reiertsen, Tone K; Robertson, Gregory J; Shannon, Paula; Sigurðsson, Ingvar A; Shoji, Akiko; Wanless, Sarah; Guilford, Tim

    2017-12-18

    Which factors shape animals' migration movements across large geographical scales, how different migratory strategies emerge between populations, and how these may affect population dynamics are central questions in the field of animal migration [1] that only large-scale studies of migration patterns across a species' range can answer [2]. To address these questions, we track the migration of 270 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, a red-listed, declining seabird, across their entire breeding range. We investigate the role of demographic, geographical, and environmental variables in driving spatial and behavioral differences on an ocean-basin scale by measuring puffins' among-colony differences in migratory routes and day-to-day behavior (estimated with individual daily activity budgets and energy expenditure). We show that competition and local winter resource availability are important drivers of migratory movements, with birds from larger colonies or with poorer local winter conditions migrating further and visiting less-productive waters; this in turn led to differences in flight activity and energy expenditure. Other behavioral differences emerge with latitude, with foraging effort and energy expenditure increasing when birds winter further north in colder waters. Importantly, these ocean-wide migration patterns can ultimately be linked with breeding performance: colony productivity is negatively associated with wintering latitude, population size, and migration distance, which demonstrates the cost of competition and migration on future breeding and the link between non-breeding and breeding periods. Our results help us to understand the drivers of animal migration and have important implications for population dynamics and the conservation of migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Fewer but not smaller schools in declining fish and krill populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brierley, Andrew S; Cox, Martin J

    2015-01-05

    Many pelagic species (species that live in the water column), including herring and krill, aggregate to form schools, shoals, or swarms (hereafter simply "schools," although the words are not synonyms). Schools provide benefits to individual members, including locomotory economy and protection from predators that prey on individuals, but paradoxically make schooling species energetically viable and commercially attractive targets for predators of groups and for fishers. Large schools are easier to find and yield greater prey/catch than small schools, and there is a requirement from fields as diverse as theoretical ecology and fisheries management to understand whether and how aggregation sizes change with changing population size. We collated data from vertical echosounder surveys of taxonomically diverse pelagic stocks from geographically diverse ecosystems. The data contain common significant positive linear stock-biomass to school-number relationships. They show that the numbers of schools in the stocks change with changing stock biomass and suggest that the distributions of school sizes do not change with stock biomass. New data that we collected using a multibeam sonar, which can image entire schools, contained the same stock-biomass to school-number relationship and confirm that the distribution of school sizes is not related to changing stock size: put simply, as stocks decline, individuals are distributed among fewer schools, not smaller schools. Since school characteristics affect catchability (the ease or difficulty with which fishers can capture target species) and availability of prey to predators, our findings have commercial and ecological implications, particularly within the aspirational framework of ecosystem-based management of marine systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Genetic structure and evidence for recent population decline in Eurasian otter populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics: implications for conservation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hájková, P.; Pertoldi, C.; Ukendt, Zemanová

    2007-01-01

    Over the latter part of the 20th century, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra populations suffered dramatic declines, resulting in extinction or fragmentation of populations in many western and central European countries. Part of the Czech otter population became totally isolated while the Slovak populati...... that they remain a strongly protected species in both countries. The spreading and re-connection of otter populations observed recently is essential for the future health of the populations, and should be supported through habitat conservation......., suggesting that the strongest decline probably occurred between the 1970s and the mid-1990s. The results of this study confirm that otter populations remain vulnerable to any violent demographic change and, despite the claims of fish-farmers and anglers for legal culls, it is highly desirable...

  9. Airborne Pesticides as an Unlikely Cause for Population Declines of Alpine Frogs in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured...

  10. Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Eaton, Jeffrey; Takaruza, Albert; Rhead, Rebecca; Maswera, Rufurwokuda; Mutsvangwa, Junior; Mayini, Justin; Skovdal, Morten; Schaefer, Robin; Hallett, Timothy; Sherr, Lorraine; Munyati, Shungu; Mason, Peter; Campbell, Catherine; Garnett, Geoffrey P; Nyamukapa, Constance Anesu

    2017-10-06

    The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART). General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years). HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART. We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise

  11. Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-12-01

    Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014

  12. The impact of birth weight on the level of lung function and lung function decline in the general adult population. The Inter99 study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, Sophie; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Lange, Peter

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between low birth weight and low adult lung function, but findings have not been consistent. The aim of this study was to investigate whether birth weight is associated with both the level and the decline in adult lung function in general...... population. METHODS: The Danish Inter99 study is a population-based intervention study in adults aged 30-60 years, providing information on birth weight and lung function on 4428 participants. Of these, 2931 participants performed spirometry at baseline and at five-year follow-up. Multiple linear regression...... models were used to examine the association between birth weight and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) and age-related decline in these variables. Analyses were conducted stepwise including sex, age, adult height, abdominal circumference, birth height, mother...

  13. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

    2015-11-01

    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

  14. The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vibhu Prakash

    Full Text Available Populations of oriental white-backed vulture (Gyps bengalensis, long-billed vulture (Gyps indicus and slender-billed vulture (Gyps tenuirostris crashed during the mid-1990s throughout the Indian subcontinent. Surveys in India, initially conducted in 1991-1993 and repeated in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2007, revealed that the population of Gyps bengalensis had fallen by 2007 to 0.1% of its numbers in the early 1990s, with the population of Gyps indicus and G. tenuirostris combined having fallen to 3.2% of its earlier level. A survey of G. bengalensis in western Nepal indicated that the size of the population in 2009 was 25% of that in 2002. In this paper, repeat surveys conducted in 2011 were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level, but the decline had slowed and may even have reversed for G. bengalensis, both in India and Nepal. However, estimates of the most recent population trends are imprecise, so it is possible that declines may be continuing, though at a significantly slower rate. The degree to which the decline of G. bengalensis in India has slowed is consistent with the expected effects on population trend of a measured change in the level of contamination of ungulate carcasses with the drug diclofenac, which is toxic to vultures, following a ban on its veterinary use in 2006. The most recent available information indicates that the elimination of diclofenac from the vultures' food supply is incomplete, so further efforts are required to fully implement the ban.

  15. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-04-01

    Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  16. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  17. Detection and effects of harmful algal toxins in Scottish harbour seals and potential links to population decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Silje-Kristin; Lacaze, Jean-Pierre; Hermann, Guillaume; Kershaw, Joanna; Brownlow, Andrew; Turner, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa

    2015-04-01

    Over the past 15 years or so, several Scottish harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations have declined in abundance and several factors have been considered as possible causes, including toxins from harmful algae. Here we explore whether a link could be established between two groups of toxins, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (STXs), and the decline in the harbour seal populations in Scotland. We document the first evidence that harbour seals are exposed to both DA and STXs from consuming contaminated fish. Both groups of toxins were found in urine and faeces sampled from live captured (n = 162) and stranded animals (n = 23) and in faecal samples collected from seal haul-out sites (n = 214) between 2008 and 2013. The proportion of positive samples and the toxins levels measured in the excreta were significantly higher in areas where harbour seal abundance is in decline. There is also evidence that DA has immunomodulatory effects in harbour seals, including lymphocytopenia and monocytosis. Scottish harbour seals are exposed to DA and STXs through contaminated prey at potentially lethal levels and with this evidence we suggest that exposure to these toxins are likely to be important factors driving the harbour seal decline in some regions of Scotland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The effect of new business creation on employment growth in regions facing population decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delfmann, Heike; Koster, Sierdjan

    Particularly in declining regions, new businesses creation is seen as a means to secure (future) employment opportunities. However, the way in which new business creation exerts its influence on employment is not evident. Do start-ups in these areas influencing employment change as they do in growth

  19. The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

    2015-03-01

    Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

  20. Effects of population based screening for Chlamydia infections in the Netherlands limited by declining participation rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V Schmid

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A large trial to investigate the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections was conducted in the Netherlands in 2008-2012. The trial was register based and consisted of four rounds of screening of women and men in the age groups 16-29 years in three regions in the Netherlands. Data were collected on participation rates and positivity rates per round. A modeling study was conducted to project screening effects for various screening strategies into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a stochastic network simulation model incorporating partnership formation and dissolution, aging and a sexual life course perspective. Trends in baseline rates of chlamydia testing and treatment were used to describe the epidemiological situation before the start of the screening program. Data on participation rates was used to describe screening uptake in rural and urban areas. Simulations were used to project the effectiveness of screening on chlamydia prevalence for a time period of 10 years. In addition, we tested alternative screening strategies, such as including only women, targeting different age groups, and biennial screening. Screening reduced prevalence by about 1% in the first two screening rounds and leveled off after that. Extrapolating observed participation rates into the future indicated very low participation in the long run. Alternative strategies only marginally changed the effectiveness of screening. Higher participation rates as originally foreseen in the program would have succeeded in reducing chlamydia prevalence to very low levels in the long run. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing participation rates over time profoundly impact the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections. Using data from several consecutive rounds of screening in a simulation model enabled us to assess the future effectiveness of screening on prevalence. If participation rates cannot be kept at a sufficient level

  1. Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

    2015-10-05

    Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend prate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world\\'s largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

    2001-01-01

    Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

  5. Genetic consequences of population decline in the Danish population of the little owl (Athene noctua)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Pellegrino, Irene; Cucco, Maroc

    2012-01-01

    Background: Danish populations of the little owl (Athene noctua) have experienced dramaticdeclines in size over the past century. Before 1960 the little owl population was abundantin Denmark (estimated N>2000), but between 1960 and 1980 the population declinedrapidly, and since 1980 the little ow...

  6. Ginkgo Biloba Extract and Long-Term Cognitive Decline: A 20-Year Follow-Up Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amieva, Hélène; Meillon, Céline; Helmer, Catherine; Barberger-Gateau, Pascale; Dartigues, Jean François

    2013-01-01

    Background Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan®) and piracetam (Nootropyl®) on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period. Methods and Findings The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study ‘Paquid’. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the ‘neither treatment’ group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the ‘neither treatment’ group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = −0.6). Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the ‘neither treatment’ group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = −0.03), whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = −1.40 and β = −0.44). When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = −1.07, β = −1.61 and β = −0.41). Conclusion Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in

  7. Ginkgo biloba extract and long-term cognitive decline: a 20-year follow-up population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Amieva

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan® and piracetam (Nootropyl® on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period.The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study 'Paquid'. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the 'neither treatment' group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the 'neither treatment' group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = -0.6. Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the 'neither treatment' group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = -0.03, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = -1.40 and β = -0.44. When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = -1.07, β = -1.61 and β = -0.41.Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in those who did not. This effect may be a specific medication

  8. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  9. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Christianson

    Full Text Available The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  10. Foraging habitat quality constrains effectiveness of artificial nest-site provisioning in reversing population declines in a colonial cavity nester.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inês Catry

    Full Text Available Among birds, breeding numbers are mainly limited by two resources of major importance: food supply and nest-site availability. Here, we investigated how differences in land-use and nest-site availability affected the foraging behaviour, breeding success and population trends of the colonial cavity-dependent lesser kestrel Falco naumanni inhabiting two protected areas. Both areas were provided with artificial nests to increase nest-site availability. The first area is a pseudo-steppe characterized by traditional extensive cereal cultivation, whereas the second area is a previous agricultural zone now abandoned or replaced by forested areas. In both areas, lesser kestrels selected extensive agricultural habitats, such as fallows and cereal fields, and avoided scrubland and forests. In the second area, tracked birds from one colony travelled significantly farther distances (6.2 km ± 1.7 vs. 1.8 km ± 0.4 and 1.9 km ± 0.6 and had significant larger foraging-ranges (144 km(2 vs. 18.8 and 14.8 km(2 when compared to the birds of two colonies in the extensive agricultural area. Longer foraging trips were reflected in lower chick feeding rates, lower fledging success and reduced chick fitness. Availability and occupation of artificial nests was high in both areas but population followed opposite trends, with a positive increment recorded exclusively in the first area with a large proportion of agricultural areas. Progressive habitat loss around the studied colony in the second area (suitable habitat decreased from 32% in 1990 to only 7% in 2002 is likely the main driver of the recorded population decline and suggests that the effectiveness of bird species conservation based on nest-site provisioning is highly constrained by habitat quality in the surrounding areas. Therefore, the conservation of cavity-dependent species may be enhanced firstly by finding the best areas of remaining habitat and secondly by increasing the carrying capacity of high

  11. Climate Warming as a Possible Trigger of Keystone Mussel Population Decline in Oligotrophic Rivers at the Continental Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolotov, Ivan N; Makhrov, Alexander A; Gofarov, Mikhail Yu; Aksenova, Olga V; Aspholm, Paul E; Bespalaya, Yulia V; Kabakov, Mikhail B; Kolosova, Yulia S; Kondakov, Alexander V; Ofenböck, Thomas; Ostrovsky, Andrew N; Popov, Igor Yu; von Proschwitz, Ted; Rudzīte, Mudīte; Rudzītis, Māris; Sokolova, Svetlana E; Valovirta, Ilmari; Vikhrev, Ilya V; Vinarski, Maxim V; Zotin, Alexey A

    2018-01-08

    The effects of climate change on oligotrophic rivers and their communities are almost unknown, albeit these ecosystems are the primary habitat of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel and its host fishes, salmonids. The distribution and abundance of pearl mussels have drastically decreased throughout Europe over the last century, particularly within the southern part of the range, but causes of this wide-scale extinction process are unclear. Here we estimate the effects of climate change on pearl mussels based on historical and recent samples from 50 rivers and 6 countries across Europe. We found that the shell convexity may be considered an indicator of the thermal effects on pearl mussel populations under warming climate because it reflects shifts in summer temperatures and is significantly different in viable and declining populations. Spatial and temporal modeling of the relationship between shell convexity and population status show that global climate change could have accelerated the population decline of pearl mussels over the last 100 years through rapidly decreasing suitable distribution areas. Simulation predicts future warming-induced range reduction, particularly in southern regions. These results highlight the importance of large-scale studies of keystone species, which can underscore the hidden effects of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems.

  12. Decreasing systolic blood pressure and declining mortality rates in an untreated population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Gorm B

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate developments in 30 years mortality risk that may be associated with developments in population systolic blood pressure (SBP) and to evaluate possible secular trends in BP-associated mortality risk in the untreated population....

  13. Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Castro-Prieto; S. Martinuzzi; V.C. Radeloff; D.P. Helmers; M. Quiñones; W.A. Gould

    2017-01-01

    Increasing residential development around protected areas is a major threat for protected areas worldwide, and human population growth is often the most important cause. However, population is decreasing in many regions as a result of socio-economic changes, and it is unclear how residential development around protected areas is affected in these situations. We...

  14. Trap-induced mass declines in small mammals: Mass as a population index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean E. Pearson; Yvette K. Ortega; Leonard F. Ruggiero

    2003-01-01

    Body mass is routinely used as an index of physical condition for comparing small-mammal populations. However, trapping effects on animals may undermine the effectiveness of body mass as an index of population health. We examined the effects of live-trapping on body mass of 3 small-mammal species: deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), southern red-...

  15. Browsing Patterns of White-Tailed Deer Following Increased Timber Harvest and a Decline in Population Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn M. Crimmins

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50% reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0–5 years postharvest in summer 2007. Clearcut-interior areas had higher woody browse abundance and browsing rates than clearcut-edge or mature forest areas. Woody browse abundance was slightly higher within individual clearcuts than in 2001 at higher population densities and lower timber harvest rates. Overall browsing rates declined from approximately 17% in 2001 to less than 5% during our study, suggesting that the combination of deer population control, and increasing the amount of timber harvest across the landscape can reduce herbivory to levels that may not impede growth and survival of forest vegetation.

  16. Genetic footprint of population fragmentation and contemporaneous decline in the endangered Yangtze finless porpoise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Minmin; Fontaine, Michael C; Chehida, Yacine Ben; Zheng, Jinsong; Labbé, Frédéric; Mei, Zhigang; Hao, Yujiang; Wang, Kexiong; Wu, Min; Zhao, Qingzhong; Wang, Ding

    2017-01-01

    Understanding demographic trends and patterns of gene flow in an endangered species is crucial for devising conservation strategies. Here, we examined the extent of population structure and recent evolution of the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis

  17. Population decline of the Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae in eastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.J. Arendt; S.S. Qian; K. Mineard

    2013-01-01

    We estimated the population density of the globally threatened Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae within two forest types at different elevations in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in north-eastern Puerto Rico. Population densities ranged from 0.01 to 0.02 individuals/ha in elfin woodland and 0.06–0.26 individuals/ha in palo colorado forest in 2006, with average...

  18. Investigation of thysanoptera populations in Hungarian greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orosz Szilvia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies were performed on sweet pepper and on weeds in their surroundings from 2005 to 2007 in the Jászság region, on different vegetables and ornamentals from 2015 to 2016 throughout Hungary, and on some indoor ornamental plants in Budapest and Kecskemét in 2017. These studies were carried out in greenhouses. The main objectives of this work was to clarify the consistency of Thysanoptera populations in these greenhouses and, secondly, as part of the official monitoring of Thrips palmi Karny and Thrips setosus Moulton, the study also focused on the first appearance of these pests in Hungary. An important additional aim was to determine which reservoirs were significant in the risk of Thysanoptera species transmitting tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV. Regarding the surveys conducted, the most frequent Thysanoptera species present in large numbers during the investigation period in every greenhouse was Frankliniella occidentalis Pergande. Also, a significant amount of Echinothrips americanus Morgan was found on ornamentals in southern Hungary, whereas on indoor ornamental plants only Hercinothrips femoralis O. M. Reuter was found.

  19. Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poterba, J M

    1998-10-01

    "This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation." excerpt

  20. Chronic lack of breeding by Galápagos Blue-footed Boobies and associated population decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Anchundia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A survey of Blue-footed Boobies (Sula nebouxii excisa throughout the taxon's range in Galápagos, Ecuador found ~6400 adults, compared to a rough estimate of 20,000 in the 1960s. Few pairs bred in 2011-2013 and almost no birds in juvenile plumage were seen. Long-term data suggest that poor breeding began in 1998. Lack of recruitment over this period would mean that the current population is mostly elderly and experiencing senescent decline in performance. Anthropogenic effects such as introduced predators are unlikely to explain this decline because islands with and without such factors exhibited the same low breeding. The poor reproduction seems to be linked to diet. Previous work indicated that sardine and herring (Clupeidae supported successful breeding, but these fish were mostly absent from the diet during this study, except in the central part of Galápagos, where most breeding attempts during this study occurred. Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific sardine abundance has decreased dramatically by natural processes in the last 15 years, as part of a well-documented and apparently natural cycle. This cyclic change in abundance provides a possible explanation for the recent demographic changes in Blue-footed Boobies in Galápagos. Whether natural or anthropogenic in origin, the implications of senescent decline in breeding ability and survival are dramatic for this genetically distinct icon of biodiversity and ecotourism.

  1. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at

  2. Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taggart, M.A. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); School of Biological Sciences, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU (United Kingdom); Cuthbert, R. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: richard.cuthbert@rspb.org.uk; Das, D. [Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Mumbai, 400023 (India); Sashikumar, C. [Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Mumbai, 400023 (India); Pain, D.J. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Green, R.E. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Conservation Biology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ (United Kingdom); Feltrer, Y. [Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Shultz, S. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Cunningham, A.A. [Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Meharg, A.A. [School of Biological Sciences, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 {mu}g kg{sup -1} bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high. - Residual diclofenac in livestock carcasses in India poses a continuing risk to Gyps vultures.

  3. Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taggart, M.A.; Cuthbert, R.; Das, D.; Sashikumar, C.; Pain, D.J.; Green, R.E.; Feltrer, Y.; Shultz, S.; Cunningham, A.A.; Meharg, A.A.

    2007-01-01

    Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 μg kg -1 bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high. - Residual diclofenac in livestock carcasses in India poses a continuing risk to Gyps vultures

  4. Declines in populations of Salix caprea L.during forest regeneration after strong herbivore pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz B. Faliński

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Communities of broadleaved forest subject to strong pressure from large herbivores underwent degeneration. The relief of this pressure led to regeneration of the community, in which an important role was played by the sallow Salix caprea and other light-seeded pioneer species of tree (Populus tremula, Betula pendula and B. pubescens. Regeneration involving Salix caprea proceeded following the conservatorial protection of the degenerate stands in a reserve and later in Białowieża National Park. The emergence and development of the population of Salix caprea proceeded following the invasion of spruce, which coincided with the period of enhanced animal pressure on broadleaved forest. Salix caprea filled all the gaps in the tree stand arising as a result of the destruction of trees and undergrowth by herbivores (in the years 1892-1915. It also appeared en masse on old, at that time unforested, clearings and felled areas. In these places, Salix caprea created very abundant populations, with particular trees being in good condition, with a habit typical of forest trees and attaining considerable heights. The majority of trees were 50-60 years old at the time of death, although individuals reached 74 years of age. The process of extinction of the sallow population - observed over 19 years on permanent plots and fixed trees - proceeded very quickly, especially in the first decade of observation. It led to the almost complete disappearance of sallow for the forest communities of Białowieża National Park. The death of individual trees is preceded by impairment of their health and reduced annual increments in the 4-9 last years of life. The extinction of the population is associated with the loss of its primary phenological differentiation and with a change in the sex structure of the population from a prevalence of female trees to a near even distribution of the two sexes. The development of the populations of permanent constituents of the forest

  5. Genetic consequences of population decline in Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gettová, Lenka; Hájková, Petra

    Supp., - (2011), s. 102 ISSN 0394-1914. [International Otter Colloquium /11./. 30.08.2011-04.09.2011, Pavia] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB600930804 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Eurasian otter * population size Subject RIV: EG - Zoology http://www.internationalottercolloquium2010.eu/files/proceedings_iucn_xi_ioc_2011.pdf

  6. Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

    2014-08-01

    Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  7. Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

  8. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, Maja; Klok, Chris; Schekkerman, Hans

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in The Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  9. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, M.; Klok, C.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in the Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  10. Age-related olfactory decline is associated with the BDNF val66met polymorphism: evidence from a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Hedner

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the effect of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF val66met polymorphism on change in olfactory function in a large scale, longitudinal population-based sample (n=836. The subjects were tested on a 13 item force-choice odor identification test on two test occasions over a 5-year-interval. Sex, education, health-related factors, and semantic ability were controlled for in the statistical analyses. Results showed an interaction effect of age and BDNF val66met on olfactory change, such that the magnitude of olfactory decline in the older age cohort (70-90 years old at baseline was larger for the val homozygote carriers than for the met carriers. The older met carriers did not display larger age-related decline in olfactory function compared to the younger group. The BDNF val66met polymorphism did not affect the rate of decline in the younger age cohort (45-65 years. The findings are discussed in the light of the proposed roles of BDNF in neural development and maintenance.

  11. Can Citizen Science Assist in Determining Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) Presence in a Declining Population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Emily; Jones, Darryl; Bernede, Lilia

    2016-07-14

    The acceptance and application of citizen science has risen over the last 10 years, with this rise likely attributed to an increase in public awareness surrounding anthropogenic impacts affecting urban ecosystems. Citizen science projects have the potential to expand upon data collected by specialist researchers as they are able to gain access to previously unattainable information, consequently increasing the likelihood of an effective management program. The primary objective of this research was to develop guidelines for a successful regional-scale citizen science project following a critical analysis of 12 existing citizen science case studies. Secondly, the effectiveness of these guidelines was measured through the implementation of a citizen science project, Koala Quest, for the purpose of estimating the presence of koalas in a fragmented landscape. Consequently, this research aimed to determine whether citizen-collected data can augment traditional science research methods, by comparing and contrasting the abundance of koala sightings gathered by citizen scientists and professional researchers. Based upon the guidelines developed, Koala Quest methodologies were designed, the study conducted, and the efficacy of the project assessed. To combat the high variability of estimated koala populations due to differences in counting techniques, a national monitoring and evaluation program is required, in addition to a standardised method for conducting koala population estimates. Citizen science is a useful method for monitoring animals such as the koala, which are sparsely distributed throughout a vast geographical area, as the large numbers of volunteers recruited by a citizen science project are capable of monitoring a similarly broad spatial range.

  12. Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

    2016-02-01

    The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

  13. Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

    2009-07-01

    Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

  14. Spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics of Andean frogs: Effects of forest disturbance and evidence for declines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther M. Cole

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity loss is a global phenomenon that can result in the collapse of food webs and critical ecosystem services. Amphibian population decline over the last century is a notable case of species loss because amphibians survived the last four major extinction events in global history, their current rate of extinction is unprecedented, and their rate of extinction is greater than that for most other taxonomic groups. Despite the severity of this conservation problem and its relevance to the study of global biodiversity loss, major knowledge gaps remain for many of the most threatened species and regions in the world. Rigorous estimates of population parameters are lacking for many amphibian species in the Neotropics. The goal of our study was to determine how the demography of seven species of the genus Pristimantis varied over time and space in two cloud forests in the Ecuadorian Andes. We completed a long term capture–mark–recapture study to estimate abundance, survival, and population growth rates in two cloud forests in the Ecuadorian Andes; from 2002 to 2009 at Yanayacu in the Eastern Cordillera and from 2002 to 2003 at Cashca Totoras in the Western Cordillera. Our results showed seasonal and annual variation in population parameters by species and sex. P. bicantus experienced significant reductions in abundance over the course of our study. Abundance, apparent survival, and population growth rates were lower in disturbed than in primary or mature secondary forest. The results of our study raise concerns for the population status of understudied amphibian groups and provide insights into the population dynamics of Neotropical amphibians.

  15. Feasibility and validity of mobile cognitive testing in the investigation of age-related cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, Pierre; Husky, Mathilde; Allard, Michèle; Amieva, Hélène; Pérès, Karine; Foubert-Samier, Alexandra; Dartigues, Jean-François; Swendsen, Joel

    2017-09-01

    Mobile cognitive testing may be used to help characterize subtle deficits at the earliest stages of cognitive decline. Despite growing interest in this approach, comprehensive information concerning its feasibility and validity has been lacking in elderly samples. Over a one-week period, this study applied mobile cognitive tests of semantic memory, episodic memory and executive functioning in a cohort of 114 elderly non-demented community residents. While the study acceptance rate was moderate (66%), the majority of recruited individuals met minimal compliance thresholds and responded to an average of 82% of the repeated daily assessments. Missing data did not increase over the course of the study, but practice effects were observed for several test scores. However, even when controlling for practice effects, traditional neuropsychological tests were significantly associated with mobile cognitive test scores. In particular, the Isaacs Set Test was associated with mobile assessments of semantic memory (γ = 0.084, t = 5.598, p mobile assessments of episodic memory (γ = 0.069, t = 3.156, p mobile assessments of executive functioning (γ = 0.168, t = 4.562, p Mobile cognitive testing in the elderly may provide complementary and potentially more sensitive data relative to traditional neuropsychological assessment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. VAM populations in relation to grass invasion associated with forest decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosatka, M; Cudlin, P; Mejstrik, V

    1991-01-01

    Spruce stands in Northern Bohemia forests, damaged to various degrees by industrial pollution, have shown establishment of grass cover following tree defoliation. Populations of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungi were studied under this grass cover in four permanent plots with spruce under different levels of pollution stress. Soil and root samples were collected in April and June within each plot as follows: (1) sites without grass, (2) sites with initial stages of grass invasion, and (3) sites with fully developed grass cover. In all plots, the highest number of propagules were recovered from samples taken from sites having full grass cover. Mycorrhizal infection of grass was highest in the plot with the severest pollution damage and lowest in the least damaged plot. The development of grass cover and VAM infection of grass increased with tree defoliation caused by air pollution.

  17. Can Citizen Science Assist in Determining Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus Presence in a Declining Population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Flower

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The acceptance and application of citizen science has risen over the last 10 years, with this rise likely attributed to an increase in public awareness surrounding anthropogenic impacts affecting urban ecosystems. Citizen science projects have the potential to expand upon data collected by specialist researchers as they are able to gain access to previously unattainable information, consequently increasing the likelihood of an effective management program. The primary objective of this research was to develop guidelines for a successful regional-scale citizen science project following a critical analysis of 12 existing citizen science case studies. Secondly, the effectiveness of these guidelines was measured through the implementation of a citizen science project, Koala Quest, for the purpose of estimating the presence of koalas in a fragmented landscape. Consequently, this research aimed to determine whether citizen-collected data can augment traditional science research methods, by comparing and contrasting the abundance of koala sightings gathered by citizen scientists and professional researchers. Based upon the guidelines developed, Koala Quest methodologies were designed, the study conducted, and the efficacy of the project assessed. To combat the high variability of estimated koala populations due to differences in counting techniques, a national monitoring and evaluation program is required, in addition to a standardised method for conducting koala population estimates. Citizen science is a useful method for monitoring animals such as the koala, which are sparsely distributed throughout a vast geographical area, as the large numbers of volunteers recruited by a citizen science project are capable of monitoring a similarly broad spatial range.

  18. Are toxins from harmful algae a factor involved in the decline of harbour seal populations in Scotland?

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen, Silje-Kristin

    2015-01-01

    Firstly this study builds on the investigation initiated by Hall and Frame (2010), which found that Scottish harbour seals were exposed to domoic acid (DA), a potent natural neurotoxin produced by phytoplankton. Using the same sample collection technique to gather urine and faecal material from various populations around Scotland with differing population trajectories (Lonergan et al., 2007), the objective was to investigate not only exposure to DA, but also other groups of ...

  19. HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

    2017-08-01

    We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

  20. Functional decline and nutritional status in a hospitalized geriatric population: sequential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Rodriguez, P; González-Reimers, E; Santolaria-Fernández, F; Batista-López, N; González-Reyes, A

    1990-01-01

    We analyzed the relations between nutritional status and several measures of the ability to perform the normal activities of daily living (ADL) in a long-term institutionalized geriatric population and also studied whether changes in this ability, as found ten months later, were associated with changes in the nutritional status. Nutritional status was assessed using objective anthropometric measurements (triceps skinfold, mid upper-arm circumference, midarm muscle area [AMA], midarm fat area [AFA]) and subjective clinical features (temporal muscle atrophy [TMA] and Bichat's fat atrophy [BFA]). The capacity to perform ADL was analyzed considering ability to eat and to walk, dental status, and mental performance status. Patients with total absence or loss of more than 50% of the teeth showed less AMA and AFA and greater degrees of TMA and BFA; the same happened with regard to deterioration of mental performance status. Those patients fed through a nasogastric tube showed less AFA and serum albumin and also a greater degree of TMA and BFA. Patients unable to walk without aid showed less AMA and AFA. Patients whose capacity to walk improved or whose mental performance status ameliorated showed an increase of their AMA, whereas AFA slightly decreased in those patients whose abilities to eat and to walk deteriorated. Long-term hospitalization in our center led to improvement and to deterioration of ADL in approximately the same number of patients, and similar changes were seen in the nutritional measures.

  1. Overcoming challenges to the recovery of declining amphibian populations in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan; Ball, Lianne C.; Barichivich, William J.; Dodd, Kenneth; Enge, Kevin M; Gorman, Thomas A.; O'Donnell, Katherine; Palis, John G; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

    2016-01-01

    The US Endangered Species Act of 1973 (ESA) affords many potential benefits to species threatened with extinction. However, most at-risk amphibians—one of the most imperiled vertebrate groups—remain unlisted under the provisions of the ESA, and many impediments to recovery exist for those species that have been listed. Of the 35 US amphibian species and distinct population segments (“taxa”) listed under the ESA, 40% currently lack a final (completed) recovery plan, 28.6% lack designated critical habitat, and 8.6% lack both. For taxa that have recovery plans, the time between their listing and the development of those plans was from 2 to 29 years, and the time between their listing and the designation of critical habitat ranged from 0 to 14 years. The underlying causes of such delays in protection are complex and constitute obstacles to recovery of imperiled species. We outline a series of strategic actions by which these challenges may be overcome.

  2. A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

    2014-01-01

    We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

  3. Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2016-06-01

    Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  4. FUTURE ESTIMATION OF CONVENIENCE LIVING FACILITIES WITHDRAWAL DUE TO POPULATION DECLINE ALL OVER JAPAN FROM 2010 TO 2040 - FOCUS ON SUPERMARKETS, CONVENIENCE STORES AND DRUGSTORES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Nishimoto

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  5. The recent decline of Montastraea annularis (complex coral populations in western Curaçao: a cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W Bruckner

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Shallow leeward reefs off the western end of Curaçao are dominated by extensive populations of M. annularis (complex. These species are larger in size (mean= 66 cm diameter than all other species, with few small colonies (10 cm observed within transects, and most exhibited low levels of partial mortality (mean= 22.5%. These species were less abundant (38% of all colonies in 2005. Partial mortality among live colonies of M. annularis and M. faveolata increased by 85% (mean = 42% partial mortality and numerous dead colonies of M. faveolata and M. annularis were observed; M. franksi colonies were generally in excellent condition (14% partial tissue mortality. A high prevalence of coral diseases (3-30% was documented among M. annularis and M. faveolata, while all other species were less frequently affected. Yellow band disease (YBD emerged shortly after the 1995 bleaching event, and rapidly spread throughout all depths, with the highest prevalence between 1997-1999. YBD caused slow rates of mortality (=1 cm/month, but multiple focal lesions appeared on individual colonies, and these progressively radiated outward as they killed the colonies. By 2005, 44% of the tagged corals were dead; the remainder exhibited active YBD infections (21% or were in remission (31.6% but were missing on average >90% of their tissue. Although the incidence of YBD has declined since 2000, white plague (WP prevalence was unusually high (4-12% in 2001 and 2005, with affected colonies exhibiting recent mortality of up to 70%. Dead Montastraea spp. surfaces are being colonized by other corals, including poritids, agaricids, and other faviids, while recruits of M. annularis (complex are absent. If diseases and other biotic stressors persist on these reefs, M. annularis and M. faveolata populations may undergo a decline similar to that observed in the 1980s among Caribbean acroporids. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 45- 58. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.

  6. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M Ferreira

    Full Text Available The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008 and white rhinos (2010 together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487 was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956. The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564 overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183. Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  7. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Sam M; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A; Knight, Mike H; Smit, Izak P J; Pienaar, Danie

    2015-01-01

    The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  8. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  9. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

    2013-03-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Participation in population-based case-control studies: does the observed decline vary by socio-economic status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazloum, Marie; Bailey, Helen D; Heiden, Tamika; Armstrong, Bruce K; de Klerk, Nicholas; Milne, Elizabeth

    2012-05-01

    An Australian study of childhood leukaemia (Aus-ALL) previously reported that control participation was positively associated with socio-economic status (SES). A similar study of childhood brain tumours (Aus-CBT) was carried out 4 years later, and this paper compares control participation and its relationship with SES in the two studies. To assess the representativeness of controls in terms of SES, the addresses of controls were linked to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 Collection Districts (CDs), and hence to area-based indices of SES. Independent sample t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to compare the SES indices of CDs where Aus-CBT controls lived with those where Aus-ALL controls lived and with those of all CDs where Australian families lived. The overall percentage of eligible families who agreed to participate was lower in Aus-CBT (53.9%) than in Aus-ALL (70.3%). Control families in both studies were of higher SES than the general population, while the distribution of SES among recruited controls was similar in both studies. These findings provide some reassurance that the observed decline in research participation over time may not be associated with an increasingly unrepresentative participant population. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Cano, Isabel; Taboada, Fernando González; Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2016-11-30

    Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  13. Decline in Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus populations during the maturation of experimentally contaminated parmesan-type cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Ramirez Starikoff

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian legislation allows the manufacture of raw milk cheese with a maturation exceeding 60 days at room temperature above 5°C, but there is a lack of solid scientific evidence on the efficacy of this maturation process in inactivating important pathogens that may be present in milk, such as Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus. Thus, the objectives of this study were to produce parmesan-type cheese experimentally contaminated with M. bovis and B. abortus and evaluate the survival of these pathogens along 2-month maturation. Parmesan-type cheese was manufactured in the laboratory using whole pasteurized milk with or without inoculation with M. bovis (SB1033 or B. abortus (1119-3 and matured at 18°C for up to 63 days. M. bovis was inoculated in Stonebrink-Leslie medium supplemented with antibiotics and incubated at 37°C for 45 days, and B. abortus was incubated in Farrel medium at 36°C for 3 days. The average D18°C value, weighted by variance, was 37.5 ± 5.3 days for M. bovis and 5.9 ± 0.7 days for B. abortus. The average physicochemical parameters in the cheese at the end of the study were as follows: pH = 4.89, water activity = 0.976, and moisture percentage = 43.1%. The pH might have contributed to the reduction in the population of B. abortus but seems not to have influenced the population of M. bovis. We conclude that the duration of the maturation process influences the size of the surviving populations of M. bovis and B. abortus, and that the shortening of the maturation duration might not ensure a decline in pathogen levels to safe levels. Thus, complementary studies considering the effect of several other technological aspects on the survival of these pathogens are required, including the effect of the lactic acid bacterial population, salt content, and temperature of maturation.

  14. Genetic consequences of population decline in the European otter ( Lutra lutra ) : an assessment of microsatellite DNA variation in Danish otters from 1883 to 1993

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, C.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Loeschcke, V.

    2001-01-01

    alleles, suggested that a drastic long-term population decline has taken place, which could have started more than 2000 years ago, possibly due to ancient anthropogenic pressure. Finally, assignment tests and pairwise F-ST values suggested weak but statistically significant genetic differentiation between......The European otter (Lutra lutra) was common in Denmark until the 1960s, but its present distribution encompasses only a minor part of the country. The aim of this study was to assess whether the recent population decline has resulted in loss of genetic variability and to gain further insight...

  15. Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2018-05-01

    Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Childhood death rates declined in Sweden from 2000 to 2014 but deaths from external causes were not always investigated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, Gabriel; Lahne, Klara; Arkema, Elizabeth V; Lucas, Steven; Janson, Staffan; Hellström-Westas, Lena

    2018-03-08

    Countries that conduct systematic child death reviews report a high proportion of modifiable characteristics among deaths from external causes, and this study examined the trends in Sweden. We analysed individual-level data on external, ill-defined and unknown causes from the Swedish cause of death register from 2000 to 2014, and mortality rates were estimated for children under the age of one and for those aged 1-14 and 15-17 years. Child deaths from all causes were 7914, and 2006 (25%) were from external, ill-defined and unknown causes: 610 (30%) were infants, 692 (34%) were 1-14 and 704 (35%) were 15-17. The annual average was 134 cases (range 99-156) during the study period. Mortality rates from external, ill-defined and unknown causes in children under 18 fell 19%, from 7.4 to 6.0 per 100 000 population. A sizeable number of infant deaths (8.0%) were registered without a death certificate during the study period, but these counts were lower in children aged 1-14 (1.3%) and 15-17 (0.9%). Childhood deaths showed a sustained decline from 2000 to 2014 in Sweden and a quarter were from external, ill-defined or unknown causes. Systematic, interagency death reviews could yield information that could prevent future deaths. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Hydroperiod and cattle use associated with lower recruitment in an r-selected amphibian with a declining population trend in the Klamath Mountains, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esther M. Cole; Rosemary Hartman; Malcolm P. North

    2016-01-01

    Recent population declines in amphibians associated with mortality in early life stages highlight the need for a better understanding of the environmental factors related to successful survival to metamorphosis. In our study, we closely examine the relative importance of environmental factors to three stages of recruitment for Cascade frogs (Rana cascadae...

  18. Duration of unemployment and suicide in Australia over the period 1985-2006: an ecological investigation by sex and age during rising versus declining national unemployment rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner, Allison; Page, Andrew; LaMontagne, Anthony D

    2013-03-01

    The relationship between unemployment and suicide may be sensitive to demographic factors, national unemployment rates, and length of time without employment. This study investigated these factors in relation to suicide in Australia for the period 1985-2006, in an ecological study. The outcome variable was annual suicide rate by age group, sex and the eight states and territories over 22 years of observation (total observations=1760). The main predictor variable was the average duration of unemployment in the population, categorised into three time periods (4 weeks). Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relationship between duration of unemployment and suicide over the years 1985-2006 in a series of cross-sectional analyses. Interaction analyses indicated significant differences during periods of declining or increasing labour market opportunity and by age group. During periods of declining unemployment rates in the country, longer durations of unemployment were associated with higher male suicide rates. During periods of increasing unemployment in the country, longer unemployment duration was associated with lower male suicide rates. Effect modification was also apparent by age-group, with stronger associations between unemployment duration and male suicide evident in those aged 25-34 and 55-64, and weaker associations in those aged 15-24 and 44-54 years. Longer length of unemployment was not associated with an increase in female suicide rates. The labour market opportunities in Australia modified the effect of duration of unemployment on suicide, and the effect was more prominent in men and older age groups. This may reflect social norms and acceptability about unemployment, as well as life-stage influences associated with transitions into and out of the labour market.

  19. Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.; Gary M. Fellers; Amy J. Lind

    2007-01-01

    Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984–86 and from 1993–95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines...

  20. Fractures as an independent predictor of functional decline in older people: a population-based study with an 8-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piirtola, Maarit; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Räihä, Ismo

    2012-01-01

    Fractures among older people are common, but there is scant evidence about the impact of fractures on functional decline in an unselected older population. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of lower and upper body fractures on functional performance among older adults during an 8-year follow-up. A population-based cohort of 616 Finnish persons aged 65 and over was followed for up to 8 years, and the association between fractures and the risk of short-term (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline was analyzed. Fractures were categorized according their functional influence on mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) into lower and upper body fractures. Multivariate cumulative logistic regression model was used in the analyses. During the 8-year follow-up, 112 (18%) persons sustained at least one fracture. In the multivariate analyses, lower body fractures predicted both short-term and long-term decline in mobility [cumulative odds ratio (COR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.9-11.7 and COR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.2, respectively] and in ADL performance (COR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3-7.6 and COR 4.7, 95% CI 2.0-11.4, respectively). Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during the long-term follow-up (COR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.8). Pre-fracture functional decline and inactivity in leisure time physical exercise were independently associated with the risk of decline in extensive activities. Fractures have an independent influence on the development of functional decline in older persons regardless of the pre-fracture health. Prevention of falls and fractures and improvement of treatment, rehabilitation and follow-up process after fractures are needed. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  1. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  2. Significant decline in case fatality after acute myocardial infarction in Denmark--a population-based study from 1994 to 2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildstrom, Steen Z; Rasmussen, Søren; Madsen, Mette

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We evaluated trends in in-hospital case fatality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Denmark and analysed changes in the hospitalization rate for AMI. DESIGN: National population-based registries were used to identify patients (> or =30 years) who were admitted for their first AMI...... from 1994 to 2001. RESULTS: The annual relative decline in case-fatality rate was constant at 10.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5-11.5%). The decline was similar for both genders at all ages. The hospitalization rate decreased from 1994 to 1999 at an annual average of 4.3% (95% CI 3.......4-5.1%). In 2000 and 2001 the average annual increase was 7-8%. CONCLUSION: The case-fatality rate after AMI declined significantly in Denmark, similar to other Western countries, but the level is still higher than that of the USA. The increasing hospitalization rate coincided with changes in risk factors...

  3. Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

    2007-01-01

    RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981....../yr of FEV(1), P-for-trend = 0.006, and +2.6 and +7.7 ml/yr of FVC, P-for-trend function decline. Active smokers with moderate to high physical activity had...

  4. The recent decline of Montastraea annularis (complex coral populations in western Curaçao: a cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W Bruckner

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Shallow leeward reefs off the western end of Curaçao are dominated by extensive populations of M. annularis (complex. These species are larger in size (mean= 66 cm diameter than all other species, with few small colonies (10 cm observed within transects, and most exhibited low levels of partial mortality (mean= 22.5%. These species were less abundant (38% of all colonies in 2005. Partial mortality among live colonies of M. annularis and M. faveolata increased by 85% (mean = 42% partial mortality and numerous dead colonies of M. faveolata and M. annularis were observed; M. franksi colonies were generally in excellent condition (14% partial tissue mortality. A high prevalence of coral diseases (3-30% was documented among M. annularis and M. faveolata, while all other species were less frequently affected. Yellow band disease (YBD emerged shortly after the 1995 bleaching event, and rapidly spread throughout all depths, with the highest prevalence between 1997-1999. YBD caused slow rates of mortality (=1 cm/month, but multiple focal lesions appeared on individual colonies, and these progressively radiated outward as they killed the colonies. By 2005, 44% of the tagged corals were dead; the remainder exhibited active YBD infections (21% or were in remission (31.6% but were missing on average >90% of their tissue. Although the incidence of YBD has declined since 2000, white plague (WP prevalence was unusually high (4-12% in 2001 and 2005, with affected colonies exhibiting recent mortality of up to 70%. Dead Montastraea spp. surfaces are being colonized by other corals, including poritids, agaricids, and other faviids, while recruits of M. annularis (complex are absent. If diseases and other biotic stressors persist on these reefs, M. annularis and M. faveolata populations may undergo a decline similar to that observed in the 1980s among Caribbean acroporids. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 45- 58. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.Los arrecifes someros a sotavento

  5. Decline in Physical Function and Risk for Elder Abuse Reported to Social Services in a Community-Dwelling Population of Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Evans, Denis

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Elder abuse is an important public health and human rights issue and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal association between decline in physical function and the risk for elder abuse. Design Prospective population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) is a population-based study (N=6,159), and we identified 143 CHAP participants who had elder abuse reported to social services agency from 1993–2010. Participants The primary independent variable was objectively assessed physical function using decline in physical performance testing (Tandem stand, measured walk and chair stand). Secondary independent variables were assessed using the decline in self-reported Katz, Nagi, and Rosow-Breslau scales. Outcomes were reported and confirmed elder abuse and specific subtypes of elder abuse (physical, psychological, caregiver neglect and financial exploitation). Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of decline in physical function measures and risk for elder abuse. Results After adjusting for potential confounders, every 1 point decline in physical performance testing (OR, 1.13(1.06–1.19)), Katz impairment (OR, 1.29(1.15–1.45)), Nagi impairment (OR, 1.30(1.13–1.49)) and Rosow Breslau impairment (OR, 1.42(1.15–1.74)) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Lowest tertiles of physical performance testing (OR, 4.92 (1.39–17.46), highest tertiles of Katz impairment (OR, 3.99 (2.18–7.31), Nagi impairment (OR, 2.37 (1.08–5.23), and Rosow Breslau impairment (2.85 (1.39–5.84) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Conclusion Decline in objectively assessed physical function and self-reported physical function are associated with increased risk for elder abuse. PMID:23002901

  6. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnaz Shakersain

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077−0.201 and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175−0.300 to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080−0.386 and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70. Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  7. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakersain, Behnaz; Rizzuto, Debora; Larsson, Susanna C; Faxén-Irving, Gerd; Fratiglioni, Laura; Xu, Wei-Li

    2018-02-17

    Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP) was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077-0.201) and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175-0.300) to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080-0.386) and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70). Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  8. Culturable bacterial populations associated with ectomycorrhizae of Norway spruce stands with different degrees of decline in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Avidano, L.; Rinaldi, M.; Gindro, R.; Cudlín, Pavel; Martinotti, M G.; Fracchia, L.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 1 (2010), s. 52-64 ISSN 0008-4166 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Ectomycorrhizae * Norway spruce * forest decline Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 1.235, year: 2010

  9. Investigation of age-related decline of microfibril-associated glycoprotein-1 in human skin through immunohistochemistry study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Q

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Qian Zheng, Siming Chen, Ying Chen, John Lyga, Russell Wyborski, Uma SanthanamGlobal Research and Development, Avon Products Inc., Suffern, New York, USAAbstract: During aging, the reduction of elastic and collagen fibers in dermis can lead to skin atrophy, fragility, and aged appearance, such as increased facial wrinkling and sagging. Microfibril-associated glycoprotein-1 (MAGP-1 is an extracellular matrix protein critical for elastic fiber assembly. It integrates and stabilizes the microfibril and elastin matrix network that helps the skin to endure mechanical stretch and recoil. However, the observation of MAGP-1 during skin aging and its function in the dermis has not been established. To better understand age-related changes in the dermis, we investigated MAGP-1 during skin aging and photoaging, using a combination of in vitro and in vivo studies. Gene expression by microarray was performed using human skin biopsies from young and aged female donors. In addition, immunofluorescence analysis on the MAGP-1 protein was performed in dermal fibroblast cultures and in human skin biopsies. Specific antibodies against MAGP-1 and fibrillin-1 were used to examine protein expression and extracellular matrix structure in the dermis via biopsies from donors of multiple age groups. A reduction of the MAGP-1 gene and protein levels were observed in human skin with increasing age and photoexposure, indicating a loss of the functional MAGP-1 fiber network and a lack of structural support in the dermis. Loss of MAGP-1 around the hair follicle/pore areas was also observed, suggesting a possible correlation between MAGP-1 loss and enlarged pores in aged skin. Our findings demonstrate that a critical “pre-elasticity” component, MAGP-1, declines with aging and photoaging. Such changes may contribute to age-related loss of dermal integrity and perifollicular structural support, which may lead to skin fragility, sagging, and enlarged pores

  10. The catastrophic decline of the Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in Sabah: Historic exploitation, reduced female reproductive performance and population viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kretzschmar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for catastrophic declines of Sumatran rhinos are far from clear and data necessary to improve decisions for conservation management are often lacking. We reviewed literature and assembled a comprehensive data set on surveys of the Sumatran rhino subspecies (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo to chart the historical development of the population in Sabah and its exploitation until the present day. We fitted resource selection functions to identify habitat features preferred by a remnant population of rhinos living in the Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, and ran a series of population viability analyses (PVAs to extract the key demographic parameters most likely to affect population dynamics. We show that as preferred habitat, the individuals in the reserve were most likely encountered in elevated areas away from roads, in close distance to mud-volcanoes, with a low presence of human trespassers and a wallow on site, and within a neighbourhood of dense forest and grassland patches preferably on Fluvisols and Acrisols. Our population viability analyses identified the percentage of breeding females and female lifetime reproductive period as the crucial parameters driving population dynamics, in combination with total protection even moderate improvements could elevate population viability substantially. The analysis also indicates that unrestrained hunting between 1930 and 1950 drastically reduced the historical rhino population in Sabah and that the remnant population could be rescued by combining the effort of total protection and stimulation of breeding activity. Based on our results, we recommend to translocate isolated reproductively healthy individuals to protected locations and to undertake measures to maximise conceptions, or running state-of-the-art reproductive management with assisted reproduction techniques. Our study demonstrates that a judicious combination of techniques can do

  11. Brain Amyloid Deposition and Longitudinal Cognitive Decline in Nondemented Older Subjects: Results from a Multi-Ethnic Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yian Gu

    Full Text Available We aimed to whether the abnormally high amyloid-β (Aβ level in the brain among apparently healthy elders is related with subtle cognitive deficits and/or accelerated cognitive decline.A total of 116 dementia-free participants (mean age 84.5 years of the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project completed 18F-Florbetaben PET imaging. Positive or negative cerebral Aβ deposition was assessed visually. Quantitative cerebral Aβ burden was calculated as the standardized uptake value ratio in pre-established regions of interest using cerebellar cortex as the reference region. Cognition was determined using a neuropsychological battery and selected tests scores were combined into four composite scores (memory, language, executive/speed, and visuospatial using exploratory factor analysis. We examined the relationship between cerebral Aβ level and longitudinal cognition change up to 20 years before the PET scan using latent growth curve models, controlling for age, education, ethnicity, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype.Positive reading of Aβ was found in 41 of 116 (35% individuals. Cognitive scores at scan time was not related with Aβ. All cognitive scores declined over time. Aβ positive reading (B = -0.034, p = 0.02 and higher Aβ burden in temporal region (B = -0.080, p = 0.02 were associated with faster decline in executive/speed. Stratified analyses showed that higher Aβ deposition was associated with faster longitudinal declines in mean cognition, language, and executive/speed in African-Americans or in APOE ε4 carriers, and with faster memory decline in APOE ε4 carriers. The associations remained significant after excluding mild cognitive impairment participants.High Aβ deposition in healthy elders was associated with decline in executive/speed in the decade before neuroimaging, and the association was observed primarily in African-Americans and APOE ε4 carriers. Our results suggest that measuring cerebral Aβ may give us

  12. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.; Maynard, Jeffrey Allen; Leblois, Raphaë l; Meekan, Mark G.; Vá zquez-Juá rez, Ricardo; Ramí rez-Mací as, Dení ; Pierce, Simon J.; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L.; Beeravolu, Champak R.; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-01-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks

  13. Declining prevalence of pulmonary paragonimiasis following treatment & community education in a remote tribal population of Arunachal Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narain, Kanwar; Devi, K Rekha; Bhattacharya, S; Negmu, K; Rajguru, S K; Mahanta, Jagadish

    2015-05-01

    In India, human pulmonary paragonimiasis is an important public health problem in the northeastern (NE) region. In 2005 we reported a hyperendemic focus of paragonimiasis in a remote tribal village in the hills of Changlang district in Arunachal Pradesh. The community was made aware of the disease and all active cases were treated. This study was aimed to assess the decline in the prevelance of paragonimiasis in the same area after a re-survey done in 2011 after a gap of six years. Re-surveys were carried to determine the reduction in the prevalence of paragonimiasis. Community education was given to the villagers to raise their awareness about paragonimiasis. A total of 624 individuals including 301 children (age 15 yr) were included in the study. Sputum and stool samples were examined for eggs of lung flukes. Serum samples were screened for IgG antibodies against lung fluke antigen by ELISA. A significant (P 31 yr, the decline in prevalence was from 15.3 to 3.7 per cent. Gender-wise analysis revealed that the decline in ELISA positivity was similar in both genders and fell down from 33.9 to 11.5 per cent in males and from 29.8 to 10.7 per cent in females. Similarly, there was a significant decline rate in egg positivity also. The strategy of hotspot targeted active paragonimiasis case detection and treatment of infected cases together with community education appears to be feasible methods to achieve control of paragonimiasis in this region.

  14. Investigation of the decline in reported smoking-caused wildfires in the USA from 2000 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Douglas S. Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The number of smoking-caused wildfires has been falling nationwide. In national forests in 2011, smoking-caused wildfires represented only 10% of their 1980 level. No other cause of wildfire has experienced this level of decline. For 12 states, we evaluate the rate of smoking-caused wildfires and find it is a function of weather, other ignitions, the number of adult...

  15. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  16. The combined effect of bottom-up and top-down factors on life history and reproduction of Daphnia in the field: is a strategic dilemma underlying population declines?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan HÜLSMANN

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In a detailed field study covering three years, population dynamics, life history shifts and reproductive patterns of a population of Daphnia galeata were investigated in relation to food availability and dynamics of young of the year fish, the main vertebrate predators. In all years an increase of Daphnia abundance in spring was associated with declining food conditions (clear water stage. The size at maturity (SAM during this period was high and even increased, brood size declined, while egg volume increased. These patterns may be explained as response to food limitation. A decline of Daphnia abundance in every year was associated with increasing food conditions and the end of the clear water stage. Egg volumes as well as the size of egg-carrying daphnids also decreased, while brood size remained at low values. In two years in which these changes were particularly pronounced, the available fish data suggest that both the biomass (determining predation pressure, as well as the size of the fish (determining size selection are important for the observed dynamics. No decrease of SAM occurred as long as fish were smaller than 25 mm TL, when they are still gape-limited and not able to feed on the largest size-classes of Daphnia. Although fish biomass, which should correspond to kairomone level, would have suggested a reduction of SAM as induced defence, probably the selection of small (egg-carrying daphnids by small fish, besides severe food limitation, prevented this response to become effective. The sudden decline of SAM at the end of the clear water stage may not be explained by gradual phenotypic responses or indirect demographic effects, but must be due to an alternation of generations. SAM may be further reduced by direct and indirect effects of predation, interacting with increasing food levels. The Daphnia population is most vulnerable to predation at the time when the new generation takes over. Consequently, predation impact depends on

  17. Failure to Respond to Food Resource Decline Has Catastrophic Consequences for Koalas in a High-Density Population in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desley A Whisson

    Full Text Available Understanding the ability of koalas to respond to changes in their environment is critical for conservation of the species and their habitat. We monitored the behavioural response of koalas to declining food resources in manna gum (Eucalyptus viminalis woodland at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia, from September 2011 to November 2013. Over this period, koala population density increased from 10.1 to 18.4 koalas.ha-1. As a result of the high browsing pressure of this population, manna gum canopy condition declined with 71.4% manna gum being completely or highly defoliated in September 2013. Despite declining food resources, radio collared koalas (N = 30 exhibited high fidelity to small ranges (0.4-1.2 ha. When trees became severely defoliated in September 2013, koalas moved relatively short distances from their former ranges (mean predicted change in range centroid = 144 m and remained in areas of 0.9 to 1.0 ha. This was despite the high connectivity of most manna gum woodland, and close proximity of the study site (< 3 km to the contiguous mixed forest of the Great Otway National Park. Limited movement had catastrophic consequences for koalas with 71% (15/21 of radio collared koalas dying from starvation or being euthanased due to their poor condition between September and November 2013.

  18. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

    2002-07-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend

  19. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

    2003-09-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates

  20. Predisposition to bark beetle attack by root herbivores and associated pathogens: Roles in forest decline, gap formation, and persistence of endemic bark beetle populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukema, Brian H.; Zhu, Jun; Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    , however, due to the requirement of long-term monitoring and high degrees of spatial and temporal covariance. We censused more than 2700 trees annually over 7 years, and at the end of 17 years, in a mature red pine plantation. Trees were measured for the presence of bark beetles and wood borers that breed...... within the primary stem, root weevils that breed in root collars, and bark beetles that breed in basal stems. We quantify the sequence of events that drive this decline syndrome, with the primary emergent pattern being an interaction between below- and above-ground herbivores and their fungal symbionts......, and elevated temperature slightly accentuates this effect. New gaps can arise from such trees as they subsequently become epicenters for the full complex of organisms associated with this decline, but this is not common. As Ips populations rise, there is some element of positive feedback...

  1. Declining Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Andrew Cox

    Full Text Available Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater, which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce parasitism pressure and thus increase productivity of host species. We used 20 years of nest monitoring data from five sites in Missouri across a gradient of landscape forest cover to assess temporal trends in the rate and intensity of brood parasitism for Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens, Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea, and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis. We evaluated whether there were concomitant changes in fledging brood size, nest survival, a combination of the two metrics (i.e., host young produced per nest attempt, and whether such changes were more substantial with decreasing landscape forest cover. Parasitism rates and intensities declined substantially during 1991-2010. Fledging brood size and nest survival rates were positively associated with landscape forest cover, confirming the fragmentation hypothesis for Midwest forest birds. Declining parasitism rates were associated with increased fledging brood sizes, with more pronounced increases as landscape forest cover decreased. Nest survival increased insubstantially across time during laying and incubation, but not during the nestling stage. The best predictor of nest survival was parasitism status, with parasitized nests surviving at lower rates than unparasitized nests. Overall, productivity increased during 1991-2010, with more pronounced increases associated with lower levels of landscape forest cover. The negative effects of cowbirds on nest survival in addition to fledging brood size in less forested landscapes suggest that cowbirds may be a primary cause of forest fragmentation effects on songbird productivity in the

  2. A draft de novo genome assembly for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus reveals evidence for a rapid decline in effective population size beginning in the Late Pleistocene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvette A Halley

    Full Text Available Wild populations of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite have declined across nearly all of their U.S. range, and despite their importance as an experimental wildlife model for ecotoxicology studies, no bobwhite draft genome assembly currently exists. Herein, we present a bobwhite draft de novo genome assembly with annotation, comparative analyses including genome-wide analyses of divergence with the chicken (Gallus gallus and zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata genomes, and coalescent modeling to reconstruct the demographic history of the bobwhite for comparison to other birds currently in decline (i.e., scarlet macaw; Ara macao. More than 90% of the assembled bobwhite genome was captured within 14,000 unique genes and proteins. Bobwhite analyses of divergence with the chicken and zebra finch genomes revealed many extremely conserved gene sequences, and evidence for lineage-specific divergence of noncoding regions. Coalescent models for reconstructing the demographic history of the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw provided evidence for population bottlenecks which were temporally coincident with human colonization of the New World, the late Pleistocene collapse of the megafauna, and the last glacial maximum. Demographic trends predicted for the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw also were concordant with how opposing natural selection strategies (i.e., skewness in the r-/K-selection continuum would be expected to shape genome diversity and the effective population sizes in these species, which is directly relevant to future conservation efforts.

  3. Combining the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale and the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly to Improve Detection of Dementia in an Arabic-Speaking Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, T. Rune; Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Chaaya, Monique

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess whether combining the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale (RUDAS) and Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) could improve diagnostic accuracy when screening for dementia in an Arabic-speaking population...... a significantly better area under the curve value compared to the RUDAS used alone. The 'weighted sum' method and the 'and' rule had the highest specificity, while the 'or' rule had the best sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Harnessing the RUDAS and IQCODE increased diagnostic accuracy when screening for dementia...

  4. Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

    2016-01-05

    Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; Pcoronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; Pcoronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. Further evidence of large-scale population decline and range contraction of the little owl Athene noctua in Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chrenková, M.; Dobrý, M.; Šálek, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 2 (2017), s. 106-116 ISSN 0139-7893 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : farmland birds * population trend * distribution * breeding places * agricultural buildings * conservation measures Subject RIV: EG - Zoology OBOR OECD: Zoology Impact factor: 0.739, year: 2016

  6. Brief Report: Anal Cancer in the HIV-Positive Population: Slowly Declining Incidence After a Decade of cART

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richel, Olivier; van der Zee, Ramon P.; Smit, Colette; de Vries, Henry J. C.; Prins, Jan M.

    2015-01-01

    We surveyed trends in incidence (1995-2012) and risk factors for anal cancer in the Dutch HIV-positive population. After an initial increase with a peak incidence in 2005-2006 of 114 [95% confidence interval (CI): 74 to 169] in all HIV+ patients and 168 (95% CI: 103 to 259) in HIV+ men who have sex

  7. Improved analysis of long-term monitoring data demonstrates marked regional declines of bat populations in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Ingersoll; Brent J. Sewall; Sybill K. Amelon

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by...

  8. PROTOPLANETARY DISK MASSES IN IC348: A RAPID DECLINE IN THE POPULATION OF SMALL DUST GRAINS AFTER 1 Myr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Nicholas; Williams, Jonathan P.; Cieza, Lucas A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a 1.3 mm continuum survey of protoplanetary disks in the 2-3 Myr old cluster, IC348, with the Submillimeter Array. We observed 85 young stellar objects and detected 10 with 1.3 mm fluxes greater than 2 mJy. The brightest source is a young embedded protostar driving a molecular outflow. The other nine detections are dusty disks around optically visible stars. Our millimeter flux measurements translate into total disk masses ranging from 2 to 6 Jupiter masses. Each detected disk has strong mid-infrared emission in excess of the stellar photosphere and has Hα equivalent widths larger than the average in the cluster and indicative of ongoing gas accretion. The disk mass distribution, however, is shifted by about a factor of 20 to lower masses, compared to that in the ∼1 Myr old Taurus and Ophiuchus regions. These observations reveal the rapid decline in the number of small dust grains in disks with time and probably their concomitant growth beyond millimeter sizes. Moreover, if IC348 is to form planets in the same proportion as detected in the field, these faint millimeter detections may represent the best candidates in the cluster to study the progression from planetesimals to planets.

  9. Population structure of Salmonella investigated by amplified fragment length polymorphism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torpdahl, M.; Ahrens, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Aims: This study was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) in determining the population structure of Salmonella. Methods and Results: A total of 89 strains were subjected to AFLP analysis using the enzymes BglII and BspDI, a combination...... that is novel in Salmonella. Both species S. bongori and S. enterica and all subsp. of S. enterica were represented with emphasis on S. enterica subsp. enterica using a local strain collection and strains from the Salmonella Reference Collection B (SARB). The amplified fragments were used in a band...

  10. Long-term decline of the populations of Fucales (Cystoseira spp. and Sargassum spp.) in the Albères coast (France, North-western Mediterranean).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibaut, Thierry; Pinedo, Susana; Torras, Xavier; Ballesteros, Enric

    2005-12-01

    Only five of fourteen species of Fucales reported at the end of the XIXth century are currently present in the Albères Coast (France, NW Mediterranean). According to historical data there has been a steady decrease of all the populations since the 1940s. Seven taxa now extinct (Cystoseira crinita, Cystoseira barbata, Cystoseira foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa, Cystoseira spinosa, Cystoseira spinosa var. compressa, Sargassum hornschuchii and Sargassum vulgare) were considered frequent and some of them were the dominant and engineering species in several phytobenthic assemblages. Moreover, only one of the five species left, shows no signs of regression (Cystoseira compressa), two are considered as rare (Cystoseira caespitosa, Cystoseira zosteroides), and one is very rare (Cystoseira elegans). Cystoseira mediterranea, a species that was reported to make a continuous belt along the shores of the Albères coast, has almost disappeared from some areas. Overgrazing by sea urchins, outcompetition by mussels, habitat destruction, scientific research sampling and, probably, human trampling and chemical pollution are to be blamed for the decline of populations thriving in shallow waters. Deep-water species have been affected by an increase in water turbidity and, probably, chemical pollution and direct plant destruction attributed to net fishing. If degradation of the environmental conditions continues, the remaining Cystoseira species will face a most unwelcome prospect. Even after the removal of the causes that led to its die-off, natural restoration of extinct species seems not to be possible because the decline has also affected populations from nearby areas and zygotes are unable to disperse over long distances. Urgent management actions have to be designed in order to improve the current situation of the populations of Fucales in the Albères coast.

  11. Global population variability in Qiagen Investigator HDplex STRs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, C; Fernandez-Formoso, L; Gelabert-Besada, M; García-Magariños, M; Amigo, J; Carracedo, A; Lareu, M V

    2014-01-01

    Supplementary short tandem repeats (STRs) can be added to forensic analyses if the 15-24 core STRs in routine use fail to give sufficient discrimination power in complex identification or relationship testing scenarios. In this study, 10 of 12 supplementary STRs in the Qiagen Investigator HDplex kit (SE33, D2S1360, D3S1744, D4S2366, D5S2500, D6S474, D7S1517, D8S1132, D10S2325, D21S2055) were genotyped in 941 individuals from the 51 populations of the CEPH Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP-CEPH). The other two components of the 12-STR HDplex kit are established STRs D12S391 and D18S51 that we previously genotyped for the HGDP-CEPH panel. We describe the rare alleles identified and outline allele frequency distributions in the seven population groups of the HGDP-CEPH panel. The HDplex STRs novel to forensic application were found to be both highly informative and comparable in their power across all populations studied: at least six of the nine loci showing above average forensic discrimination power in each population group. In some rare instances certain low frequency alleles in D2S1360 were found to overlap in mobility with the neighbouring allele size ranges of D12S391, as well as those of D7S1517 with neighbouring D3S1744 and D10S2325 with neighbouring SE33. Lastly, since expanded five-dye multiplex kits of 20 STRs (Promega Powerplex 21) and 22 STRs (Promega Powerplex Fusion) have recently been introduced, we assess through simulations the increased power to analyse pairwise relationships in deficient pedigrees that can be expected from an optimum kit pair: combining HDplex with either of the above sets to provide 30 or 32 unique STRs and just two overlapping loci. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canavan, Joycelin, E-mail: canavanjoycelin@gmail.com [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L. [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Olivotto, Ivo A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, University of Calgary (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    increased. These changes contributed to the observed declining LR rates among patients treated with breast-conserving therapy.

  13. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canavan, Joycelin; Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L.; Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary; Olivotto, Ivo A.

    2014-01-01

    increased. These changes contributed to the observed declining LR rates among patients treated with breast-conserving therapy

  14. Candidate gene investigation of spinal degenerative osteoarthritis in Greek population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liva, Eleni; Panagiotou, Irene; Palikyras, Spyros; Parpa, Efi; Tsilika, Eleni; Paschou, Peristera; Mystakidou, Kyriaki

    2017-12-01

    Few data exist concerning the natural history of degenerative osteoarthritis (OA) of the spine and its associated gene investigation. Degenerative spinal OA demonstrates an international prevalence of 15% in the general population. The aim of this Greek case-control study is to examine gene polymorphisms that have been previously shown or hypothesized to be correlated to degenerative OA. Gene polymorphisms, especially for OA, have never been previously studied in the Greek population. The study was conducted from May 2009 to December 2012. Eligible subjects who agreed to take part in the study were Greek adults from all of Greece, referred for consultation to the Palliative Care and Pain Relief Unit of Aretaieion University Hospital, in Athens, Greece. A total of 601 matched pairs (cases and controls) participated in the study, 258 patients (188 women and 70 men) with clinically and radiologically confirmed degenerative OA and 243 control subjects (138 women and 105 men). All patients presented with chronic pain at the spine (cervical, thoracic or lumbar) caused by sympomatic osteophytes or disc narrowing, whereas clinical diagnosis of OA was based on the presence of both joint symptoms and evidence of structural changes seen on plain conventional X-rays. We investigated genetic variation across candidate OA gene GDF5, CDMP1, CDMP2, Asporin, SMAD3, and chromosomal region 7q22, in a sample of 258 patients with clinically and radiologically confirmed degenerative OA, and 243 control subjects from the Greek population. All subjects (patients and controls) were subsequently matched for the epidemiologic, demographic, and clinical risk factors, to prevent selection biases. A tagging single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) approach was pursued to cover variation across all targeted loci. Single marker tests as well as haplotypic tests of association were performed. There is no conflict of interest, and also, there are no study funding sources. We found significant

  15. Effects of perceived job insecurity on depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health in Korea: a population-based panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Seok; Hong, Yun-Chul; Yook, Ji-Hoo; Kang, Mo-Yeol

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the effects of job security on new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Data from the Korea Welfare Panel Study from 2012 to 2015 were analysed. A total of 2912 waged workers self-assessed their depressive episode, suicide ideation, and health annually by answering the questionnaire. Participants were divided into three groups according to the level of job security: high, intermediate and low. To evaluate the influence of job security, we performed survival analysis after stratification by gender with adjustment for covariates. The result was further stratified by whether the respondent was the head of household. After adjusting for covariates, men in low job security group showed significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for depression (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.60), suicide ideation (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.72-6.16), and decline in self-rated health (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.16-2.59). Women showed significantly higher HR of depression in the intermediate (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.01-1.87) and low (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.12-1.99) job security group. Male head of household with low job security showed significantly higher HR of depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Non-head-of-household women with intermediate and low job security showed higher risk of depression than those with high job security. We found that perceived job insecurity is associated with the new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health.

  16. In search of millions of lost Starlings across Europe: The relation between monitoring, science and conservation in a declining species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heldbjerg, Henning; Fox, Anthony David

    The Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) is a widespread and common species, which is declining in large parts of its European range. We analysed and compared breeding population trends across Europe to investigate the causes of the declines. At the continental scale, the European population declined at a...

  17. Cytological investigations in populations of D. melanogaster exposed to radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wienberg, J.

    1983-01-01

    The study described was carried out to investigate structural changes in the chromosomes of irradiated populations of D.melanogaster that can be analysed on the basis of cytological methods. It mainly dealt with two particular aspects of this subject: I. Different types of chromosomes (polytene chromosomes, mitotic and meiotic chromosomes) were used to examine whether and to which extent chromosomal variability would alter or remain unchanged under the influence of mutation. II. The prophase of the first division of female cells was analysed with respect to the role of resistance factor rar-2. In this connection, it was of interest whether the prophase of meiosis would show visible cytological changes in the interchromosomal structure that are caused by factor rar-2. (orig./MG) [de

  18. Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2016-01-01

    While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

  19. Population genetic data of Investigator HDplex markers in Han population from Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiuling; Nan, Hailun; He, Xin; Wu, Weiwei; Lu, Dejian

    2018-02-17

    Allele frequencies and forensic statistical parameters for 12 STRs contained in the Investigator HDplex Kit (D2S1360, D3S1744, D4S2366, D5S2500, SE33, D6S474, D7S1517, D8S1132, D10S2325, D12S391, D18S51, and D21S2055) were estimated from a sample of 503 unrelated individuals from the Guangdong Han population of South China. No significant departure from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or genetic linkage disequilibrium was observed (after Bonferroni correction). The expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.6411 to 0.9414. The allele frequencies in Guangdong Han significantly differed from that in Shanghai Han, Korea, Northern Italian, Swedish, Dutch, Somalia, and Argentinean populations at 2 to 12 loci. The markers included in the kit have highly polymorphic information that could be used for forensic DNA analysis as potential tools for differentiating Han population from other populations in the world.

  20. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-12-01

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease as a Cause of Cognitive Decline and Seizures in the Elderly: Diagnostic Pointers and Strategy for Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive decline affects one in twenty people over the age of 65. There is often a paucity of clues as to the underlying pathology, and while the diagnosis will usually prove to be either Alzheimer’s disease or vascular dementia, there may be clinical features suggesting rarer alternatives. This case of a 71-year-old lady with a 3-month history of progressive cognitive decline illustrates clinical features suggestive of Creutzfeltd-Jakob disease such as rapid decline in conscious level and myoclonic jerking. Diagnosis was confirmed by 3 means: (1 Electroencephalogram demonstrating periodic sharp wave complexes, (2 MRI brain showing cortical ribboning and high signal in the caudate nucleus, and (3 presence of protein S100 and protein14-3-3 in the cerebrospinal fluid. Postmortem brain histology confirmed a typical spongiform encephalopathy. Establishing an underlying aetiology is dementia is important not only for prognostic reasons but in order to detect potentially reversible causes. In cases of an atypical dementing illness our proposed investigations may assist in confirming or excluding underlying Creutzfeltd-Jakob disease.

  2. Quantifying the contribution of statins to the decline in population mean cholesterol by socioeconomic group in England 1991 - 2012: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Kypridemos

    Full Text Available Serum total cholesterol is one of the major targets for cardiovascular disease prevention. Statins are effective for cholesterol control in individual patients. At the population level, however, their contribution to total cholesterol decline remains unclear. The aim of this study was to quantify the contribution of statins to the observed fall in population mean cholesterol levels in England over the past two decades, and explore any differences between socioeconomic groups.This is a modelling study based on data from the Health Survey for England. We analysed changes in observed mean total cholesterol levels in the adult England population between 1991-92 (baseline and 2011-12. We then compared the observed changes with a counterfactual 'no statins' scenario, where the impact of statins on population total cholesterol was estimated and removed. We estimated uncertainty intervals (UI using Monte Carlo simulation, where confidence intervals (CI were impractical. In 2011-12, 13.2% (95% CI: 12.5-14.0% of the English adult population used statins at least once per week, compared with 1991-92 when the proportion was just 0.5% (95% CI: 0.3-1.0%. Between 1991-92 and 2011-12, mean total cholesterol declined from 5.86 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.82-5.90 to 5.17 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.14-5.20. For 2011-12, mean total cholesterol was lower in more deprived groups. In our 'no statins' scenario we predicted a mean total cholesterol of 5.36 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.33-5.40 for 2011-12. Statins were responsible for approximately 33.7% (95% UI: 28.9-38.8% of the total cholesterol reduction since 1991-92. The statin contribution to cholesterol reduction was greater among the more deprived groups of women, while showing little socio-economic gradient among men.Our model suggests that statins explained around a third of the substantial falls in total cholesterol observed in England since 1991. Approximately two thirds of the cholesterol decrease can reasonably be attributed non

  3. Investigating energy deposition within cell populations using Monte Carlo simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Patricia A K; Thomson, Rowan M

    2018-06-27

    In this work, we develop multicellular models of healthy and cancerous human soft tissues, which are used to investigate energy deposition in subcellular targets, quantify the microdosimetric spread in a population of cells, and determine how these results depend on model details. Monte Carlo (MC) tissue models combining varying levels of detail on different length scales are developed: microscopically-detailed regions of interest (>1500 explicitly-modelled cells) are embedded in bulk tissue phantoms irradiated by photons (20 keV to 1.25 MeV). Specific energy (z; energy imparted per unit mass) is scored in nuclei and cytoplasm compartments using the EGSnrc user-code egs_chamber; specific energy mean, <z>, standard deviation, σz, and distribution, f(z,D), are calculated for a variety of macroscopic doses, D. MC-calculated f(z,D) are compared with normal distributions having the same mean and standard deviation. For mGy doses, there is considerable variation in energy deposition (microdosimetric spread) throughout a cell population: e.g., for 30 keV photons irradiating melanoma with 7.5 μm cell radius and 3 μm nuclear radius, σz/<z> for nuclear targets is 170%, and the fraction of nuclei receiving no energy deposition, fz=0, is 0.31 for a dose of 10 mGy. If cobalt-60 photons are considered instead, then σz/<z> decreases to 84%, and fz=0 decreases to 0.036. These results correspond to randomly arranged cells with cell/nucleus sizes randomly sampled from a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1 μm. If cells are arranged in a hexagonal lattice and cell/nucleus sizes are uniform throughout the population, then σz/<z> decreases to 106% and 68% for 30 keV and cobalt-60,respectively; fz=0

  4. Population diversity of ammonium oxidizers investigated by specific PCR amplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, B.B.; Voytek, M.A.; Witzel, K.-P.

    1997-01-01

    The species composition of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in aquatic environments was investigated using PCR primers for 16S rRNA genes to amplify specific subsets of the total ammonia-oxidizer population. The specificity of the amplification reactions was determined using total genomic DNA from known nitrifying strains and non-nitrifying strains identified as having similar rDNA sequences. Specificity of amplification was determined both for direct amplification, using the nitrifier specific primers, and with nested amplification, in which the nitrifier primers were used to reamplify a fragment obtained from direct amplification with Eubacterial universal primers. The present level of specificity allows the distinction between Nitrosomonas europaea, Nitrosomonas sp. (marine) and the other known ammonia-oxidizers in the beta subclass of the Proteobacteria. Using total DNA extracted from natural samples, we used direct amplification to determine presence/absence of different species groups. Species composition was found to differ among depths in vertical profiles of lake samples and among samples and enrichments from various other aquatic environments. Nested PCR yielded several more positive reactions, which implies that nitrifier DNA was present in most samples, but often at very low levels.

  5. Preliminary investigation of plasma levels of sex hormones and human growth factor(s, and P300 latency as correlates to cognitive decline as a function of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerner Mallory M

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aging is marked by declines in levels of many sex hormones and growth factors, as well as in cognitive function. The P300 event-related potential has been established as a predictor of cognitive decline. We decided to determine if this measure, as well as 2 standard tests of memory and attention, may be correlated with serum levels of sex hormones and growth factors, and if there are any generalizations that could be made based on these parameters and the aging process. Findings In this large clinically based preliminary study several sex-stratified associations between hormone levels and cognition were observed, including (1 for males aged 30 to 49, both IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 significantly associated negatively with prolonged P300 latency; (2 for males aged 30 to 49, the spearman correlation between prolonged P300 latency and low free testosterone was significant; (3 for males aged 60 to 69, there was a significant negative correlation between P300 latency and DHEA levels; (4 for females aged 50 to 59 IGFBP-3 significantly associated negatively with prolonged P300 latency; (5 for females at all age periods, estrogen and progesterone were uncorrelated with P300 latency; and (6 for females aged 40 to 69, there was significant negative correlation between DHEA levels and P300 latency. Moreover there were no statistically significant correlations between any hormone and Wechsler Memory Scale-III (WMS-111. However, in females, there was a significant positive correlation between estrogen levels and the number of Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD complaints. Conclusion Given certain caveats including confounding factors involving psychiatric and other chronic diseases as well as medications, the results may still have important value. If these results could be confirmed in a more rigorously controlled investigation, it may have important value in the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of cognitive impairments and decline.

  6. Connectivity between migrating and landlocked populations of a diadromous fish species investigated using otolith microchemistry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Tulp

    Full Text Available Smelt Osmerus eperlanus has two different life history strategies in The Netherlands. The migrating population inhabits the Wadden Sea and spawns in freshwater areas. After the closure of the Afsluitdijk in 1932, part of the smelt population became landlocked. The fresh water smelt population has been in severe decline since 1990, and has strongly negatively impacted the numbers of piscivorous water birds relying on smelt as their main prey. The lakes that were formed after the dike closure, IJsselmeer and Markermeer have been assigned as Natura 2000 sites, based on their importance for (among others piscivorous water birds. Because of the declining fresh water smelt population, the question arose whether this population is still supported by the diadromous population. Opportunities for exchange between fresh water and the sea are however limited to discharge sluices. The relationship between the diadromous and landlocked smelt population was analysed by means of otolith microchemistry. Our interpretation of otolith strontium ((88Sr patterns from smelt specimens collected in the fresh water area of Lake IJsselmeer and Markermeer, compared to those collected in the nearby marine environment, is that there is currently no evidence for a substantial contribution from the diadromous population to the spawning stock of the landlocked population.

  7. Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-08-01

    The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population. The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate. A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data. We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality. The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.

  8. Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Clausius

    Full Text Available The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

  9. An alternative covariance estimator to investigate genetic heterogeneity in populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslot, Nicolas; Jannink, Jean-Luc

    2015-11-26

    For genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using mixed models, covariance between individuals is estimated using molecular markers. Based on the properties of mixed models, using available molecular data for prediction is optimal if this covariance is known. Under this assumption, adding individuals to the analysis should never be detrimental. However, some empirical studies showed that increasing training population size decreased prediction accuracy. Recently, results from theoretical models indicated that even if marker density is high and the genetic architecture of traits is controlled by many loci with small additive effects, the covariance between individuals, which depends on relationships at causal loci, is not always well estimated by the whole-genome kinship. We propose an alternative covariance estimator named K-kernel, to account for potential genetic heterogeneity between populations that is characterized by a lack of genetic correlation, and to limit the information flow between a priori unknown populations in a trait-specific manner. This is similar to a multi-trait model and parameters are estimated by REML and, in extreme cases, it can allow for an independent genetic architecture between populations. As such, K-kernel is useful to study the problem of the design of training populations. K-kernel was compared to other covariance estimators or kernels to examine its fit to the data, cross-validated accuracy and suitability for GWAS on several datasets. It provides a significantly better fit to the data than the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and, in some cases it performs better than other kernels such as the Gaussian kernel, as shown by an empirical null distribution. In GWAS simulations, alternative kernels control type I errors as well as or better than the classical whole-genome kinship and increase statistical power. No or small gains were observed in cross-validated prediction accuracy. This alternative

  10. Exploring Phytoplankton Population Investigation Growth to Enhance Quantitative Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, Erin; Biga, Lindsay; Bledsoe, Karen; Dawson, James; Grammer, Julie; Howard, Ava; Snyder, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative literacy is essential to biological literacy (and is one of the core concepts in "Vision and Change in Undergraduate Biology Education: A Call to Action"; AAAS 2009). Building quantitative literacy is a challenging endeavor for biology instructors. Integrating mathematical skills into biological investigations can help build…

  11. Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun. Park

    2011-01-01

    A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

  12. Land use, fishing, climate change, and decline of Thompson River, British Columbia, coho salmon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradford, M. J.; Irvine, J. R. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC (Canada)

    2000-01-01

    Reasons for the decline in abundance of Pacific salmon population in the Thompson River watershed in British Columbia was investigated. Results suggests that the decline could be the result of a declining trend in productivity related to changes in ocean conditions, overfishing, and changes in the freshwater habitat. The abundance of salmon correlated with agricultural land use, road density, and qualitative changes in stream habitat status; logging appeared to have had no such effect. It was concluded that salmon populations will continue to decline unless limits on fishing are strictly enforced, and unless salmon producing watersheds are restored and ocean conditions are significantly improved . 12 refs., 2 figs.

  13. Do cycle disturbances explain the age-related decline of female fertility? Cycle characteristics of women aged over 40 years compared with a reference population of young women.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zonneveld, P. van; Scheffer, G.J.; Broekmans, F.J.; Blankenstein, M.A.; Jong, F.H. de; Looman, C.W.; Habbema, J.D.F.; Velde, E.R. te

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The cause of declining fertility with age, in women who still have regular menstrual cycles, is not clear. METHODS: Follicle development, endometrial growth and hormonal patterns were evaluated in cycles of older women (aged 41-46 years; n = 26) who previously were normally fertile, and

  14. An urban neo-poverty population-based quality of life and related social characteristics investigation from northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Fengrong; Li, Kai; Gao, Qian; Liu, Dan; Li, Jinghai; Hu, Liwen; Wu, Xian; Edmiston, E Kale; Liu, Yang

    2012-01-01

    To investigate quality of life (QOL) and related characteristics among an urban neo-poverty population in northeast China, and to compare this population with a traditional poverty cohort. The research was a cross-sectional survey executed from June 2005 to October 2007, with a sample of 2940 individuals ages 36 to 55 in three different industrial cities of northeast China. Data were collected on QOL status and sociodemographic characteristics. QOL was assessed using the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (Chinese version). Multiple regression analysis was employed to analyze association between sociodemographic variables and QOL. The scores for QOL in the neo-poverty group were higher than those in the traditional poverty group, but lower than those in the general population. When the neo-poverty population was divided into two subgroups by age, 36-45 years and 46-55 years, the differences in QOL scores were not significant. However, there were significant differences in several dimensions between two subgroups according to unemployment time (5 years). Additionally, stepwise regression analysis indicated that disease burden, including disease and medical expenditures, was a common risk factor for declining QOL in the neo-poverty group. Despite some limitations, this study provides initial evidence that the QOL of the urban neo-poverty population lies between that of the general population and traditional poverty. QOL of the neo-poverty group approached QOL of the traditional poverty group with increased unemployment years. In addition to decreased income, disease burden is the most important factor influencing QOL status in urban neo-poverty.

  15. Defining population structure and genetic signatures of decline in the giant garter snake (Thamnophis gigas): implications for conserving threatened species within highly altered landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Dustin A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Vandergast, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can disrupt the ability of species to disperse across landscapes, which can alter the levels and distribution of genetic diversity within populations and negatively impact long-term viability. The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species that historically occurred in the wetland habitats of California’s Great Central Valley. Despite the loss of 93 % of historic wetlands throughout the Central Valley, giant gartersnakes continue to persist in relatively small, isolated patches of highly modified agricultural wetlands. Gathering information regarding genetic diversity and effective population size represents an essential component for conservation management programs aimed at this species. Previous mitochondrial sequence studies have revealed historical patterns of differentiation, yet little is known about contemporary population structure and diversity. On the basis of 15 microsatellite loci, we estimate population structure and compare indices of genetic diversity among populations spanning seven drainage basins within the Central Valley. We sought to understand how habitat loss may have affected genetic differentiation, genetic diversity and effective population size, and what these patterns suggest in terms of management and restoration actions. We recovered five genetic clusters that were consistent with regional drainage basins, although three northern basins within the Sacramento Valley formed a single genetic cluster. Our results show that northern drainage basin populations have higher connectivity than among central and southern basins populations, and that greater differentiation exists among the more geographically isolated populations in the central and southern portion of the species’ range. Genetic diversity measures among basins were significantly different, and were generally lower in southern basin populations. Levels of inbreeding and evidence of population

  16. Decline in Performance of Biochemical Reactors for Sulphate Removal from Mine-Influenced Water is Accompanied by Changes in Organic Matter Characteristics and Microbial Population Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parissa Mirjafari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Successful long-term bioremediation of mining-influenced water using complex organic matter and naturally-occurring microorganisms in sub-surface flow constructed wetlands requires a balance between easily and more slowly degrading material. This can be achieved by combining different types of organic materials. To provide guidance on what mixture combinations to use, information is needed on how the ratio of labile to recalcitrant components affects the degradation rate and the types of microbial populations supported. To investigate this, different ratios of wood and hay were used in up-flow column bioreactors treating selenium- and sulphate-containing synthetic mine-influenced water. The degradation rates of crude fibre components appeared to be similar regardless of the relative amounts of wood and hay. However, the nature of the degradation products might have differed in that those produced in the hay-rich bioreactors were more biodegradable and supported high sulphate-reduction rates. Microorganisms in the sulphate-reducing and cellulose-degrading inocula persisted in the bioreactors indicating that bio-augmentation was effective. There was a shift in microbial community composition over time suggesting that different microbial groups were involved in decomposition of more recalcitrant material. When dissolved organic carbon (DOC was over-supplied, the relative abundance of sulphate-reducers was low even through high sulphate-reduction rates were achieved. As DOC diminished, sulphate-reducers become more prevalent and their relative abundance correlated with sulphate concentrations rather than sulphate-reduction rate.

  17. Effect of root strength and soil saturation on hillslope stability in forests with natural cedar decline in headwater regions of SE Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelaide C. Johnson; Peter. Wilcock

    1998-01-01

    A natural decline in the population of yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) is occurring in pristine southeast Alaska forests and may be the most significant forest decline in the western United States. The frequency of landslides in cedar decline areas is three times larger than in areas of healthy forest. Three regions are investigated in...

  18. Performance of the 16-Item Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline for the Elderly (IQCODE) in an Arabic-Speaking Older Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Chaaya, Monique; Asmar, Khalil

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIM: The North African and Middle Eastern region has high illiteracy rates among older people, making direct cognitive testing challenging. Validated screening instruments for dementia in Arabic are lacking. We aimed to validate the Arabic version of the 16-item Informant Questionnaire...... on Cognitive Decline for the Elderly (A-IQCODE 16) for screening for dementia through an informant. METHODS: 236 Lebanese participants older than 65 years, 143 with normal cognition and 93 with mild-to-moderate dementia according to the DSM-IV criteria, and their informants were recruited. Half...

  19. Investigation of the effects of solid lipid curcumin on cognition and mood in a healthy older population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Katherine H M; Pipingas, Andrew; Scholey, Andrew B

    2015-05-01

    Curcumin possesses many properties which may prevent or ameliorate pathological processes underlying age-related cognitive decline, dementia or mood disorders. These benefits in preclinical studies have not been established in humans. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial examined the acute (1 and 3 h after a single dose), chronic (4 weeks) and acute-on-chronic (1 and 3 h after single dose following chronic treatment) effects of solid lipid curcumin formulation (400 mg as Longvida®) on cognitive function, mood and blood biomarkers in 60 healthy adults aged 60-85. One hour after administration curcumin significantly improved performance on sustained attention and working memory tasks, compared with placebo. Working memory and mood (general fatigue and change in state calmness, contentedness and fatigue induced by psychological stress) were significantly better following chronic treatment. A significant acute-on-chronic treatment effect on alertness and contentedness was also observed. Curcumin was associated with significantly reduced total and LDL cholesterol and had no effect on hematological safety measures. To our knowledge this is the first study to examine the effects of curcumin on cognition and mood in a healthy older population or to examine any acute behavioral effects in humans. Results highlight the need for further investigation of the potential psychological and cognitive benefits of curcumin in an older population. © The Author(s) 2014.

  20. The nine lives of a threatened felid in a human-dominated landscape: assessing population decline drivers of the guiña (Leopardus guigna)

    OpenAIRE

    Gálvez, Nicolás

    2015-01-01

    The world's human population and an expanding agricultural frontier are exerting increasing pressure on the Earth's systems that sustain life resulting in unprecedented levels of biodiversity loss. Carnivores, which play a key role in ecosystem function and integrity, are also particularly threatened by habitat loss and killing by humans in response to livestock predation. At the same time carnivores, particularly felids show a paucity of studies that suggests population assessments and long-...

  1. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

    OpenAIRE

    Timothée Bonnet; Peter Wandeler; Glauco Camenisch; Erik Postma

    2017-01-01

    In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions: Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called ‘stasis paradox’ highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic enviro...

  2. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  3. An investigation of the statistical power of neutrality tests based on comparative and population genetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhai, Weiwei; Nielsen, Rasmus; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2009-01-01

    In this report, we investigate the statistical power of several tests of selective neutrality based on patterns of genetic diversity within and between species. The goal is to compare tests based solely on population genetic data with tests using comparative data or a combination of comparative...... and population genetic data. We show that in the presence of repeated selective sweeps on relatively neutral background, tests based on the d(N)/d(S) ratios in comparative data almost always have more power to detect selection than tests based on population genetic data, even if the overall level of divergence...... selection. The Hudson-Kreitman-Aguadé test is the most powerful test for detecting positive selection among the population genetic tests investigated, whereas McDonald-Kreitman test typically has more power to detect negative selection. We discuss our findings in the light of the discordant results obtained...

  4. Lung function decline in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantucci C

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

  5. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothée Bonnet

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called "stasis paradox" highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of

  6. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandeler, Peter; Camenisch, Glauco

    2017-01-01

    In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is

  7. Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

    2016-09-01

    The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.

  8. Emerging factors associated with the decline of a gray fox population and multi-scale land cover associations of mesopredators in the Chicago metropolitan area.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willingham, Alison N.; /Ohio State U.

    2008-01-01

    Statewide surveys of furbearers in Illinois indicate gray (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and red (Vulpes vulpes) foxes have experienced substantial declines in relative abundance, whereas other species such as raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) have exhibited dramatic increases during the same time period. The cause of the declines of gray and red foxes has not been identified, and the current status of gray foxes remains uncertain. Therefore, I conducted a large-scale predator survey and tracked radiocollared gray foxes from 2004 to 2007 in order to determine the distribution, survival, cause-specific mortality sources and land cover associations of gray foxes in an urbanized region of northeastern Illinois, and examined the relationships between the occurrence of gray fox and the presence other species of mesopredators, specifically coyotes and raccoons. Although generalist mesopredators are common and can reach high densities in many urban areas their urban ecology is poorly understood due to their secretive nature and wariness of humans. Understanding how mesopredators utilize urbanized landscapes can be useful in the management and control of disease outbreaks, mitigation of nuisance wildlife issues, and gaining insight into how mesopredators shape wildlife communities in highly fragmented areas. I examined habitat associations of raccoons, opossums (Didelphis virginiana), domestic cats (Felis catus), coyotes, foxes (gray and red), and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) at multiple spatial scales in an urban environment. Gray fox occurrence was rare and widely dispersed, and survival estimates were similar to other studies. Gray fox occurrence was negatively associated with natural and semi-natural land cover types. Fox home range size increased with increasing urban development suggesting that foxes may be negatively influenced by urbanization. Gray fox occurrence was not associated with coyote or raccoon presence. However, spatial avoidance and

  9. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  10. Investigator Argus X-12 study on the population of northern Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Crnjac

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract X chromosome STR typing has emerged recently as a powerful tool, complementary to autosomal STR typing, in solving complex forensic and missing person cases. Investigator® Argus X-12 is a commercial product that allows co-amplification of 12 X chromosomal markers belonging to four linkage groups (LGs. In this study, we analyzed by capillary electrophoresis blood samples from 100 females and 102 males from a population of northern Croatia. Statistical analysis included calculation of allele and haplotype frequencies, as well as forensic parameters. The most informative marker for the northern Croatia population was DXS10135 with PIC=0.9211 and a total of 27 alleles. The least polymorphic marker was DXS8378 with 6 alleles. The proportion of observed haplotypes from the number of possible haplotypes varied from 2.74–8.57% across all LGs, with LG1 being the most informative. Of the 11 tested world populations compared to the population of northern Croatia, significant differences in genetic distance (FST were found for Greenlandic and all non-European populations. We found that all tested markers are in HWE and can thus be used for match probability calculation. Because of high combined power of discrimination in both men and women, Investigator® Argus X-12 is applicable for the northern Croatia population in routine forensic casework.

  11. Clinical prediction in defined populations: a simulation study investigating when and how to aggregate existing models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen P. Martin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical prediction models (CPMs are increasingly deployed to support healthcare decisions but they are derived inconsistently, in part due to limited data. An emerging alternative is to aggregate existing CPMs developed for similar settings and outcomes. This simulation study aimed to investigate the impact of between-population-heterogeneity and sample size on aggregating existing CPMs in a defined population, compared with developing a model de novo. Methods Simulations were designed to mimic a scenario in which multiple CPMs for a binary outcome had been derived in distinct, heterogeneous populations, with potentially different predictors available in each. We then generated a new ‘local’ population and compared the performance of CPMs developed for this population by aggregation, using stacked regression, principal component analysis or partial least squares, with redevelopment from scratch using backwards selection and penalised regression. Results While redevelopment approaches resulted in models that were miscalibrated for local datasets of less than 500 observations, model aggregation methods were well calibrated across all simulation scenarios. When the size of local data was less than 1000 observations and between-population-heterogeneity was small, aggregating existing CPMs gave better discrimination and had the lowest mean square error in the predicted risks compared with deriving a new model. Conversely, given greater than 1000 observations and significant between-population-heterogeneity, then redevelopment outperformed the aggregation approaches. In all other scenarios, both aggregation and de novo derivation resulted in similar predictive performance. Conclusion This study demonstrates a pragmatic approach to contextualising CPMs to defined populations. When aiming to develop models in defined populations, modellers should consider existing CPMs, with aggregation approaches being a suitable modelling

  12. Investigation of insecticide-resistance status of Cydia pomonella in Chinese populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X-Q; Zhang, Y-L

    2015-06-01

    The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) is an economically important fruit pest and it has been directly targeted by insecticides worldwide. Serious resistance to insecticides has been reported in many countries. As one of the most serious invasive pest, the codling moth has populated several areas in China. However, resistance to insecticides has not been reported in China. We investigated the insecticide-resistance status of four field populations from Northwestern China by applying bioassays, enzyme activities, and mutation detections. Diagnostic concentrations of lambda-cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos-ethyl, carbaryl, and imidacloprid were determined and used in bioassays. Field populations were less susceptible to chlorpyrifos-ethyl and carbaryl than laboratory strain. Insensitive populations displayed an elevated glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) activity. Reduced carboxylesterase (CarE) activity was observed in some insecticide insensitive populations and reduced acetylcholinesterase activity was observed only in the Wuw population. The cytochrome P450 polysubstrate monooxygenases activities in four field populations were not found to be different from susceptible strains. Neither the known-resistance mutation F399V in the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gene, ace1, nor mutations in CarE gene CpCE-1 were found in adult individuals from our field populations. Native-PAGE revealed that various CarE isozymes and AChE insensitivity were occurring among Chinese populations. Our results indicate that codling moth populations from Northwestern China were insensitivity to chlorpyrifos-ethyl and carbaryl. Increased GST activity was responsible for insecticides insensitivity. Decreased CarE activity, as well as the presence of CarE and AChE polymorphisms might also be involved in insecticides insensitivity. New management strategies for managing this pest are discussed.

  13. Numerical investigation of the recruitment process in open marine population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angulo, O; López-Marcos, J C; López-Marcos, M A; Martínez-Rodríguez, J

    2011-01-01

    The changes in the dynamics, produced by the recruitment process in an open marine population model, are investigated from a numerical point of view. The numerical method considered, based on the representation of the solution along the characteristic lines, approximates properly the steady states of the model, and is used to analyze the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the model

  14. The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, Merle; Bolt, Gideon; Van Ham, Maarten; Van Kempen, Ronald

    2016-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

  15. Investigating Resistance of Wild Mustard (Sinapis arvensis L. ‎Populations to Tribenuron-Methyl Herbicide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ‎ Mehdi Afshari

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Tribenuron-methyl is commonly used for post emergence control of broad leaf weeds in wheat fields. In order to survey suspicious resistant weeds in wheat fields to this herbicide thirty-eight fields of Kermanshah province were investigated during 2012- 2013. Seeds of suspected resistance of wild mustard were gathered and tested in a randomized complete blocks design experiment with three replications. First, for early detection of herbicide resistance, the suspected population was screened using discriminating dose of tribenuron-methyl. Determining of the resistance degree was conducted by whole plant bioassay tests using dose-response curves. The resistance mechanisms were assayed by molecular methods, especially using the ALS gene cloning by PJET1.2/blunt Vector. For susceptible populations, the concentration required for complete control was 10.4 g ai ha-1 tribenuron-methyl. Also, in screening tests 50% of populations as resistant populations were identified. According to the Beckie and Tardif, it was found that 57.8% of these population did have a very high degree of resistance, 31.5% with high resistance and 10/5% with low resistance degree. GR50 of the resistant weeds was also increased as compared to sensitive weed, which indicates resistance in this province, Thus to control the resistant populations Z15, this amount increased to 1309 g ai ha-1.The results of DNA sequencing showed that mutation by replacing proline amino acid at position Ala122 causes resistance based on target-site mutation.

  16. What Makes Clusters Decline?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    2015-01-01

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...... but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  17. The Rise and Fall of a Yeast Community, An Environmental Investigation into the Dynamics of Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Environmental Sciences Foundation, Inc., Minneapolis.

    In this unit students study populations by observing some of the activities that go on in one particular population. Specifically, yeast plants are examined and some of the effects which various environmental factors have on yeast plant populations are investigated. A population curve is developed showing how easily it is affected by the…

  18. Dispersal and population structure of a New World predator, the army ant Eciton burchellii

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berghoff, S M; Kronauer, D J C; Edwards, K J

    2008-01-01

    barriers, which might have severe impacts on population structure and lead to population decline. Using nuclear microsatellite markers and mitochondrial sequences, we investigated genetic differentiation in a fragmented population in the Panama Canal area. While nuclear markers showed little...

  19. Investigation of the Nonlinear Model of the Cellular Population System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Vinogradova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An isolated population system is considered which consists of two types of human stem cells: normal cells and cells with chromosomal anomalies (abnormal. In the paper the nonlinear dynamic model which describes dynamics of cell populations developing in vitro is elaborated. The model allows to investigate the processes of the formation of the abnormal cells population from the abnormal cells population of normal cells as well as joint development of these populations. The model takes into account the limited resources.An important feature of the developed model is the use of biological characteristics of processes in the cell population system, such as the proportion of cells, divided over a specified time, the proportion of cells whish are not divided, and which are "lost" and which are passed in the population of abnormal cells from the normal population. This approach allows a more detailed analysis of the impact of various "primary" parameters on the evolution of the population system.Under cultivation of cell populations in vitro a struggle for resources primarily affects the processes of the cell reproduction. This is reflected in the existence of the dividing cells frequency dependence of the total population of normal and abnormal cells. For the account of such dependencies different non-linear functions are typically used. However, the use of such non-linear relationships leads to the difficulties in finding confidence intervals for the estimates of the model parameters at subsequent stages of research. At the same time, the problem of the system parameters estimating and finding of the corresponding confidence intervals for estimates can be solved easy in case when the nonlinear system is linear with respect to the unknown parameters. In the paper it is achieved due to the piecewise linear approximation of nonlinear dependencies.An important feature of the model is a different view of the right part of the differential equations system

  20. Mortality Reduction, Fertility Decline, and Population Growth: Toward a More Relevant Assessment of the Relationships among Them. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 686 and Population and Development Series No. 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwatkin, Davidson

    One of a special series on population change and development, this paper focuses primarily on the programs and policies responsible for mortality or fertility change, rather than on the growth impact of a mortality or fertility change per se. The first portion of the document examines three models for assessing the population growth implications…

  1. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  2. The decline of the impetigo epidemic caused by the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone: an 11.5-year population-based incidence study from a community in Western Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rørtveit, Sverre; Skutlaberg, Dag Harald; Langeland, Nina; Rortveit, Guri

    2014-12-01

    From around the year 2000, Northern Europe experienced a rise in impetigo caused by Staphylococcus aureus resistant to fusidic acid. A single clone of S. aureus was found to be the bacterial pathogen involved in the impetigo outbreak in Norway, Sweden, the UK and Ireland, termed 'the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone' (EEFIC). We have followed the incidence of impetigo during the years 2001-2012 based on all patients in general practice in the island community of Austevoll, Western Norway. We previously reported a marked decline of impetigo incidence in Austevoll, from 0.0260 cases per person-year in 2002 to 0.0038 in 2009. This article explores indications of an end to the impetigo epidemic caused by the EEFIC clone. All four general practitioners (GPs) in the community (mean population = 4400) were asked to diagnose impetigo in a uniform way and to take bacterial specimens from all impetigo cases. Phenotypic characteristics of specimen bacteria were determined for the whole period and molecular analyses were performed on isolates in the period 2008-2012. We observed a further decline in incidence of impetigo in Austevoll in the study period. The proportion of fusidic acid-resistant S. aureus isolates decreased during the period 2002-2012, with a mean of 80% in the epidemic years of 2002-2004, 55% in 2005-2009, and 6% in 2010-2012. In total, 44 S. aureus isolates from impetigo were subject to molecular analyses in the period 2008-2012, and 11 were found to be related to the EEFIC. All EEFIC isolates were found in 2008-2009, with no new isolates in 2010-2012. There is an apparent end to the impetigo epidemic related to the EEFIC in this population in Western Norway.

  3. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  4. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  5. US Historic Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

  6. An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Fletcher, Jerald J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971–2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. - Highlights: ► We find Granger Causality running from GDP to coal consumption. ► China can mitigate the adverse environmental effects of coal by altering GDP path. ► We find Granger Causality running from urbanization to electricity production. ► China needs to find other sources of energy to cater for growing electricity demand. ► Increasing urban population may slow economic growth due to overcrowding in cities.

  7. BIOTIC FACTORS IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amphibians evolved in, and continue to exist in, habitats that are replete with many other organisms. Some of these organisms serve as prey for amphibians and others interact with amphibians as predators, competitors, pathogens, or symbionts. Still other organisms in their enviro...

  8. Investigation of vitamin D status and its correlation with insulin resistance in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Bing; Wang, Xiaojin; Wang, Ningjian; Li, Qin; Chen, Yi; Zhu, Chunfang; Chen, Yingchao; Xia, Fangzhen; Pu, Xiaoqi; Cang, Zhen; Zhu, Chaoxia; Lu, Meng; Meng, Ying; Guo, Hui; Chen, Chi; Tu, Weiping; Li, Bin; Hu, Ling; Wang, Bingshun; Lu, Yingli

    2017-06-01

    Although many studies worldwide have focused on the relationship between vitamin D and insulin resistance, results remain controversial. Furthermore, concentrations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) in the Chinese population are unclear. We aimed to investigate vitamin D status and its correlation with insulin resistance among a Chinese adult population. Serum 25(OH)D, fasting blood glucose, fasting insulin, glycated Hb (HbA1c) and other metabolic parameters were assessed. Neck circumference, waist circumference, hip circumference, weight and height were also measured. Lifestyle factors including smoking and drinking status were obtained. Diabetes mellitus was diagnosed by HbA1c according to the 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria. Eastern China. Of 7200 residents included, 6597 individuals were ultimately analysed. We enrolled 2813 males (mean age 52·7 (sd 13·5) years) and 3784 females (52·3 (sd 13·5) years); mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 43·1 (sd 11·6) and 39·6 (sd 9·8) nmol/l, respectively. Additionally, 83·3 % of participants were 25(OH)D deficient. A significant difference in 25(OH)D was observed between males and females in winter and spring (Pinsulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in the overweight and pre-diabetic populations. After adjusting for several variables, 25(OH)D was significantly associated with HOMA-IR in winter. When 25(OH)D values were categorized into quartiles, HOMA-IR was significantly associated with decreasing 25(OH)D. The majority of the Chinese population was vitamin D deficient and this deficiency was negatively associated with insulin resistance, particularly in the overweight and pre-diabetic populations. Moreover, these associations might be more evident in the winter.

  9. Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

  10. Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

    2008-01-01

    Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

  11. Forest decline through radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

    1985-01-01

    Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Cluster Decline and Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark, 1963......-2011. Our longitudinal study reveals that technological lock-in and exit of key firms have contributed to impairment of the cluster’s resilience in adapting to disruptions. Entrepreneurship has a positive effect on cluster resilience, while multinational companies have contradicting effects by bringing...... in new resources to the cluster but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

  13. Investigation on hepatitis C virus infection among different population group in eastern Guangdong province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Kai; Chen Linxing; Zhang Renhua; Yao Zhanchen; Xu Pinghui

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the HCV infection rate and the route of transmission among different population groups in Eastern Gruangdong province. Methods: Anti HCV was detected with EL ISA and HCV-RNA with FQ-PCR in selected population groups in Eastern Guangdong (total 8990 subjects). Results: The anti-HCV positive rates for general population, pregnant women, medical personnel, hepatitis B patients and patients on hemodialysis (HD) were: 0.89%(58/6468), 0.93%(17/1836), 2.93%(5/171), 11.5%(47/410) and 51.4%(54/105) respectively. Twelve of the 17 anti-HCV positive mothers were found to be HCV-RNA positive and two of the 12 infants were also HCV-RNA positive: a mother-to-infant transmission rate of 16.7%. In MD patients, anti HCV positive rate in those with history of transfusion and those without transfusion was 58% and 17% respectively, the difference being significant (P<0.01). Conclusion: Blood transmission was the main route for HCV infection transmission and mother-to-infant transmission as well as infections in medical personnel should be of great concern. (authors)

  14. Perinatal risk factors in offenders with severe personality disorder: a population-based investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazel, Seena; Bakiyeva, Liliya; Cnattingius, Sven; Grann, Martin; Hultman, Christina M; Lichtenstein, Paul; Geddes, John R

    2012-10-01

    Although perinatal factors are associated with the development of several psychiatric disorders, it is unknown whether these factors are linked with personality disorder. Cases of personality disorder were drawn from a national registry of all forensic psychiatric evaluations (n = 150). Two control groups were used: (1) A sample of forensic evaluations without any psychiatric disorder (n = 97) allowing for a nested case-control investigation; and (2) A population-based sample matched by age and gender with no history of psychiatric hospitalization (n = 1498). Prematurity (personality disorder, both in the nested and the population-based case-control comparisons with adjusted odds ratios (OR) for this risk factor ranging from 2 to 4. Asphyxia (adjusted OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.4-4.1) and complicated delivery (adjusted OR = 1.5, 1.0-2.1) were associated with personality disorder in the population-based study, and the former remained significant in multivariate models. Overall, perinatal complications were found to be associated with a later diagnosis of personality disorder in this selected sample. As with other psychiatric disorders where such associations have been demonstrated, changes during the perinatal period may lead to abnormal brain development and function.

  15. Investigating Biological Control Agents for Controlling Invasive Populations of the Mealybug Pseudococcus comstocki in France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibaut Malausa

    Full Text Available Pseudococcus comstocki (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae is a mealybug species native to Eastern Asia and present as an invasive pest in northern Italy and southern France since the start of the century. It infests apple and pear trees, grapevines and some ornamental trees. Biocontrol programmes against this pest proved successful in central Asia and North America in the second half of the 20th century. In this study, we investigated possible biocontrol agents against P. comstocki, with the aim of developing a biocontrol programme in France. We carried out systematic DNA-barcoding at each step in the search for a specialist parasitoid. First we characterised the French target populations of P. comstocki. We then identified the parasitoids attacking P. comstocki in France. Finally, we searched for foreign mealybug populations identified a priori as P. comstocki and surveyed their hymenopteran parasitoids. Three mealybug species (P. comstocki, P. viburni and P. cryptus were identified during the survey, together with at least 16 different parasitoid taxa. We selected candidate biological control agent populations for use against P. comstocki in France, from the species Allotropa burrelli (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae and Acerophagus malinus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae. The coupling of molecular and morphological characterisation for both pests and natural enemies facilitated the programme development and the rejection of unsuitable or generalist parasitoids.

  16. Investigation of natural radiation background and assessment of its population dose in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the nationwide survey in 1984-1988 of environmental external radiation by integrating measurements, and the assessment of population doses from obtained data. Thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) model ETLD-80 with CaSO 4 : Dy were used. The survey was conducted in two different scales. In general survey, TLDs were distributed in whole area of every investigated provinces; and in local survey, one city and one village within each province were selected and investigated for the purpose of comparison of the natural radiation levels between the rural and urban areas. A marked characteristics was noted that the level of natural environmental radiation in south China seems to be higher than that in north China. It may be attributed to the geological difference in both parts. The annual individual average and collective effective dose equivalents to population of China from natural environmental radiation were estimated to be 780 μSv and 8.1 x 10 5 man. Sv, based on the model recommended by UNSCEAR 1988 Report

  17. Investigating Declining Enrolments in Secondary Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hine, Gregory

    2016-01-01

    This research paper examines the perspective of the Heads of Learning Area: Mathematics (HOLAMs) within all Western Australian secondary schools as to why they felt capable students were not enrolling in the two higher-level mathematics courses of study. All HOLAMs were invited to participate in a single, anonymous online survey comprising…

  18. Decline and infiltrated lung

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraldo Estrada, Horacio; Arboleda Casas, Felipe; Duarte, Monica; Triana Harker, Ricardo

    2001-01-01

    The paper describes the decline and infiltrated lung in a patient of 45 years, with diagnosis of arthritis rheumatoid from the 43 years, asymptomatic, without treatment, married, of the 15 to the 35 years of 3 to 10 cigarettes daily, she refers of 7 months of evolution episodes of moderate dyspnoea with exercises and dry cough with occasional mucous expectoration between others

  19. Investigating molecular basis of lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in an Anopheles funestus population from Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samb, Badara; Konate, Lassana; Irving, Helen; Riveron, Jacob M; Dia, Ibrahima; Faye, Ousmane; Wondji, Charles S

    2016-08-12

    Anopheles funestus is one of the major malaria vectors in tropical Africa, notably in Senegal. The highly anthropophilic and endophilic behaviours of this mosquito make it a good target for vector control operations through the use of insecticide treated nets, long-lasting insecticide nets and indoor residual spraying. However, little is known about patterns of resistance to insecticides and the underlying resistance mechanisms in field populations of this vector in Senegal. Here, we assessed the susceptibility status of An. funestus populations from Gankette Balla, located in northern Senegal and investigated the potential resistance mechanisms. WHO bioassays indicated that An. funestus is resistant to lambda-cyhalothrin 0.05 % (74.64 % mortality), DDT 4 % (83.36 % mortality) and deltamethrin 0.05 % (88.53 % mortality). Suspected resistance was observed to permethrin 0.75 % (91.19 % mortality), bendiocarb 0.1 % (94.13 % mortality) and dieldrin 4 % (96.41 % mortality). However, this population is fully susceptible to malathion 5 % (100 % mortality) and fenitrothion 1 % (100 % mortality). The microarray and qRT-PCR analysis indicated that the lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in Gankette Balla is conferred by metabolic resistance mechanisms under the probable control of cytochrome P450 genes among which CYP6M7 is the most overexpressed. The absence of overexpression of the P450 gene, CYP6P9a, indicates that the resistance mechanism in Senegal is different to that observed in southern Africa. This study represents the first report of pyrethroid and DDT resistance in An. funestus from Senegal and shows that resistance to insecticides is not only confined to An. gambiae as previously thought. Therefore, urgent action should be taken to manage the resistance in this species to ensure the continued effectiveness of malaria control.

  20. The association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in a sample of older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Tyler; Dávila, Ana Luisa; Clay, Olivio; Markides, Kyriakos S; Andel, Ross; Crowe, Michael

    2017-08-01

    Older Puerto Rican adults have particularly high risk of diabetes compared to the general US population. Diabetes is associated with both higher depressive symptoms and cognitive decline, but less is known about the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in those with diabetes. This study investigated the association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes over a four-year period. Households across Puerto Rico were visited to identify a population-based sample of adults aged 60 years and over for the Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions study (PREHCO); 680 participants with diabetes at baseline and no baseline cognitive impairment were included in analyses. Cognitive decline and depressive symptoms were measured using the Mini-Mental Cabán (MMC) and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively. We examined predictors of incident depressive symptoms (GDS ≥ 5 at follow-up but not baseline) and cognitive decline using regression modeling. In a covariate-adjusted logistic regression model, cognitive decline, female gender, and greater diabetes-related complications were each significantly associated with increased odds of incident depressive symptoms (p Puerto Ricans with diabetes who also experienced cognitive decline. Efforts are needed to optimize diabetes management and monitor for depression and cognitive decline in this population.

  1. Microbial population analysis improves the evidential value of faecal traces in forensic investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaak, Frederike C A; de Graaf, Mei-Lan M; Weterings, Rob; Kuiper, Irene

    2017-01-01

    The forensic science community has a growing interest in microbial population analysis, especially the microbial populations found inside and on the human body. Both their high abundance, microbes outnumber human cells by a factor 10, and their diversity, different sites of the human body harbour different microbial communities, make them an interesting tool for forensics. Faecal material is a type of trace evidence which can be found in a variety of criminal cases, but is often being ignored in forensic investigations. Deriving a human short tandem repeat (STR) profile from a faecal sample can be challenging. However, the microbial communities within faecal material can be of additional criminalistic value in linking a faecal trace to the possible donor. We present a microarray technique in which the faecal microbial community is used to differentiate between faecal samples and developed a decision model to predict the possible common origin of questioned samples. The results show that this technique may be a useful additional tool when no or only partial human STR profiles can be generated.

  2. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study: rationale, design and population characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slimani, N.; Kaaks, R.; Ferrari, P.

    2002-01-01

    The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which covers a large cohort of half a million men and women from 23 European centres in 10 Western European countries, was designed to study the relationship between diet and the risk of chronic diseases, particularly cancer......, a calibration approach was developed. This approach involved an additional dietary assessment common across study populations to re-express individual dietary intakes according to the same reference scale. A single 24-hour diet recall was therefore collected, as the EPIC reference calibration method, from...... in a large multi-centre European study. These studies showed that, despite certain inherent methodological and logistic constraints, a study design such as this one works relatively well in practice. The average response in the calibration study was 78.3% and ranged from 46.5% to 92.5%. The calibration...

  3. INVESTIGATION OF ALFALFA LOCAL POPULATIONS FOR CREATION OF NEW BREEDING GERMPLAZM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihomir Čupić

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Yield of dry matter and green mass are important factors in selection of fodder crop cultivars. Low genetic gain was achieved during the long time of fodder crops breeding for yield. Therefore we investigated possibility of using local populations of alfalfa for yield increase with direct and indirect selection. Strong and significant influence of genotypes and environments was recorded for all examined traits and their interactions at the level p<0.01. The highest variability was recorded for green mass yield 48.21%; while the lowest variation was for height 13.18%. High share of genotype variance as well as high heritability were recorded in total variance for the traits number of stem and plant height.

  4. Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

    2010-01-01

    or no effects, and a single prior distribution common for all SNP. It was found that, in general, the model with a common prior distribution of scaling factors had better predictive ability than any mixture prior models. Therefore, a common prior model was used to estimate SNP effects and breeding values......Abstract This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers...... were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...

  5. Induction of mutagenized tomato populations for investigation on agronomic traits and mutant phenotyping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafiul Amin Laskar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for tomato production increased tremendously due to its diverse utility in raw, cooked and processed form of food. This necessitates the continued supply of highly nutritious and better yielding improved cultivars to the producers, considering the rapid changing agro-climatic condition. In this study, induced mutant tomato populations of widely recommended tomato genotype Arka Vikas (Sel-22 were generated using chemical mutagen ethyl methane sulfonate (EMS, hydrazine hydrates (HZ and their combined treatments. In the in vitro study, a gradual reduction in germination percentage and seedling height occurred with the increasing concentrations of mutagens. Combination of EMS and HZ caused maximum biological inhibition followed by EMS and HZ treatments alone in M1 generation. The rate of survival and fertility in M1 plants of tomato was found highly affected due to mutagenic treatment, in which sensitivity toward combined treatment was found highest followed by EMS and HZ. Inspection on induced phenotypic variations in individual plants of M2 population resulted in identification and isolation of wide range of mutants with altered phenotypes. Highest mutation frequency was resulted by combined mutagens followed by the EMS and HZ treatment. Agronomic trait analyses showed intra and inter treatment variations in three quantitative traits (Plant height, fertile branch per plant and fruits per plant of M2 mutagenized population. Assessment on rate of mutant recovery in M2 population showed highest mutant recovery is possible with combination treatments and then 0.02% HZ followed by 0.02% EMS. In the present study, phenotyping of the mutants revealed that vegetative organs (‘plant size’, ‘plant habit’ and ‘leaf morphology’ was the most sensitive category (69.33% to which most of the mutant belongs, followed by ‘fruit color and size’ (20.27% and ‘germination’ (9.79%. Comparative investigation on number of mutants and

  6. The fertility decline in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

    1995-01-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

  7. Diagnostic utility of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) and its combination with the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) in a memory clinic-based population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, P; Larner, A J

    2009-06-01

    The study aimed to assess the clinical utility of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) in patients referred to memory clinics, alone and in combination with the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) and the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE). This pragmatic prospective study was based on consecutive referrals attending with an informant (n = 144) to two memory clinics over a 12-month period. Patients were diagnosed using standard clinical diagnostic criteria for dementia (DSM-IV) as gold standard (dementia prevalence = 59%). The IQCODE was administered to informants, and the ACE-R and/or MMSE to most patients. The IQCODE proved acceptable to informants, and was quick and easy to use. Using traditional parameters of diagnostic utility (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, likelihood ratios), the performance of the IQCODE at optimal test accuracy was highly sensitive (0.86) for the diagnosis of dementia but specificity was poor (0.39) with suboptimal positive predictive value (0.67) and small or unimportant likelihood ratios. Overall diagnostic accuracy based on area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.71. Combining the IQCODE with either ACE-R or MMSE greatly improved accuracy, specificity and positive predictive value when the tests were used in series, but not when used in parallel. In a memory clinic based population, the IQCODE proved sensitive for the diagnosis of dementia but overall diagnostic accuracy was suboptimal. Combining the IQCODE in series with the ACE-R or MMSE greatly improved diagnostic utility.

  8. The Erebus Montes Debris-Apron Population: Investigation of Amazonian Landscape Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gasselt, S.; Orgel, C.; Schulz, J.

    2014-04-01

    Lobate debris aprons are considered to be indicators for the presence of ice and water reservoirs on Mars and are therefore sensitive to climate variability. The northern hemisphere of Mars is characterized by three major populations of debris aprons (see, e.g. [12]): (1) the Tempe Terra/Mareotis Fossae region [2, 5], (2) the Deuteronilus/Protonilus Mensae [1, 4, 8], and (3) the Phlegra Montes (PM) [3]. The broader PM area can subdivided inro a number of smaller populations dispersed across parts of Arcadia Planitia (see figure 1) of which the Erebus Montes located at 180-195oE, 25-41oN form a well-confined set of features. We here focus on age and erosional characteristics of the northern Erebus Montes (see inset in figure 1). Our study makes use of panchromatic image data obtained by the High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) [9, 6] onboard Mars Express and the Context Camera (CTX) [7] onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Image data analyses are supported by digital terrain-model data derived from HRSC based stereo imaging [10] and from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) [11]. We performed detailed geologic mapping at a scale of 1:10,000 and analysed age relationships and erosion rates based on a similar approach as outlined in [5] for the northern part of the Erebus Montes. The aim of this study is to compare feature characteristics to other populations in order to assess timing and the overarching control of landforms evolution in the Martian northern hemisphere. The EM compare geologically relatively well with the Phlegra Montes in terms of individual feature morphologies. The concentration based on cluster analysis (figure 1) shows an up to 10 times higher concentration of remnants per 25 km2 area peaking at 3.4×10-3 features for Erebus Montes. Debris aprons show well-defined age signals ranging from 15 Myr up to 145 Myr. Some units even show continuous degradation implying active denudation of the Noachian to Hesperian-aged remnant massifs. Based on the

  9. [Investigation of the situation of vaginal microflora in healthy women population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Fang; Zhang, Ning; Di, Wen; Liao, Qin-ping; Wang, Wen; Zhao, Xiao-ming; Sun, Yun; Liu, Zhao-hui

    2009-01-01

    To assess the distribution of vaginal microflora in healthy women and investigate their cognition of lower reproductive tract infection-related knowledge as well as personal hygiene habits and character of behavior in seeking medical treatment. Total of 1660 healthy women who had physical check-ups at the Medical Center of Renji Hospital were selected and received gynecologic examination, as well as routine examination, pH examination and bacterial culture of the vaginal discharge. In addition, 860 of them were randomly selected for questionnaire survey, in which reproductive tract infection -related knowledge and personal hygiene habits as well as behavior in seeking medical treatment were involved. Among the 1660 censused women, vaginal average pH was 4. 16 +/- 0.21. The positive rate of Candida in vaginal discharge routine examination was 3.86% (64/1660), which was lower than that in aerobes culture 7.71% (128/1660). Candida albicans was the most populous species 78.9% (101/128), followed by 7.8% (10/128) and 7.0% (9/128) for the Candida glabrata and Candida krusei respectively. The most populous species of vaginal microflora were hemolytic streptococcus A (63.80%, 1059/1660), Staphylococcus epidermidis (14.28%, 237/1660), and Enterococcus faecalis (D) group (11.44%, 190/1660). The questionnaire survey showed that 88.4% (760/860) of 860 women took active treatment when feeling unwell, 92.1% (792/860) of them had good hygiene practices, and only 21.2% (182/860) had the habit of vaginal douching. In addition, 50.0% (430/860) of them had the desire to obtain reproductive health knowledge through out-patient consultation. Vulvovaginal Candida disease ranks the first in all types of vaginitis, among which, Candida albicans is the most populous species followed by the Candida glabrata and Candida krusei. Hemolytic streptococcus A and Staphylococcus epidermidis are the most common species of vaginal microflora in healthy women. The censused women have high awareness of

  10. Connectivity between Migrating and Landlocked Populations of a Diadromous fish Species Investigated Using Otolith Microchemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.Y.M.; Keller, A.M.; Navez, J.; Winter, H.V.; Graaf, de M.; Baeyens, W.

    2013-01-01

    Smelt Osmerus eperlanus has two different life history strategies in the Netherlands. The migrating population inhabits the Wadden Sea and spawns in freshwater areas. After the closure of the Afsluitdijk in 1932, part of the smelt population became landlocked. The fresh water smelt population has

  11. A preliminary investigation into the genetic variation and population structure of Taenia hydatigena from Sardinia, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boufana, Belgees; Scala, Antonio; Lahmar, Samia; Pointing, Steve; Craig, Philip S; Dessì, Giorgia; Zidda, Antonella; Pipia, Anna Paola; Varcasia, Antonio

    2015-11-30

    Cysticercosis caused by the metacestode stage of Taenia hydatigena is endemic in Sardinia. Information on the genetic variation of this parasite is important for epidemiological studies and implementation of control programs. Using two mitochondrial genes, the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) and the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (ND1) we investigated the genetic variation and population structure of Cysticercus tenuicollis from Sardinian intermediate hosts and compared it to that from other hosts from various geographical regions. The parsimony cox1 network analysis indicated the existence of a common lineage for T. hydatigena and the overall diversity and neutrality indices indicated demographic expansion. Using the cox1 sequences, low pairwise fixation index (Fst) values were recorded for Sardinian, Iranian and Palestinian sheep C. tenuicollis which suggested the absence of genetic differentiation. Using the ND1 sequences, C. tenuicollis from Sardinian sheep appeared to be differentiated from those of goat and pig origin. In addition, goat C. tenuicollis were genetically different from adult T. hydatigena as indicated by the statistically significant Fst value. Our results are consistent with biochemical and morphological studies that suggest the existence of variants of T. hydatigena. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Parkinson's disease: a population-based investigation of life satisfaction and employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Helena; Nordström, Peter; Stråhle, Stefan; Nordström, Anna

    2015-01-01

    To investigate relationships between individuals' socioeconomic situations and quality of life in working-aged subjects with Parkinson's disease. A population-based cohort comprising 1,432 people with Parkinson's disease and 1,135 matched controls, who responded to a questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with life satisfaction and likelihood of employment. In multivariate analyses, Parkinson's disease was associated with an increased risk of dissatisfaction with life (odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 4.2-7.1) and reduced likelihood of employment (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.25-0.37). Employers' support was associated with greater likelihood of employment (p worked full-time. People with Parkinson's disease also more frequently experienced work demands that exceeded their capacity; this factor and unemployment independently correlated with greater risk of dissatisfaction with life (both p life. Employment situation is important for general life satisfaction among working-aged individuals. People with Parkinson's disease appear to find it difficult to meet the challenge of achieving a balanced employment situation.

  13. [Epidemiological investigation on fascioliasis and its risk factors in population of Binchuan County, Yunnan Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Liu, Yu-hua; Yang, Hui; Duan, Yii-chun; Yang, Jing; Zhao, Yin-jiao; Hao, Ming-ming; Pan, Li-juan; Deng, Yin-ju; Shi, Ya-nan; Chen, Fu-ling; Zhang, Jian-guo; Luo, Jia-jun

    2015-08-01

    To understand the infection status of Fasciola and related risk factors in population of Binchuan County, Yunnan Province. In February and March, 2014, 6 natural villages from 2 administrative villages in Zhoucheng Town were selected as investigated sites, and the permanent residents aged ≥ 5 years were examined by ELISA for the serum antibody detection, and then the positive ones were examined by Kato-Katz technique and the hatching method for Fasciola egg detection. Meanwhile, the fascioliasis cases that checked out by the above methods were further surveyed, and the residents who with the same gender, similar age and negative results in the blood examination were selected as the controls, then the risk factors were explored through a case control study. Totally 1 207 people were included in the blood examination, and 36 positives were found with a positive rate of 2.98%. Though the differences between the positive rates of the serum antibody in people with different genders and age were not statistically significant (χ2 = 1.686, 7.106, both P > 0.05) , those between the rates of people in different administrative villages and natural villages were statistically significant (χ2 = 4.103, 13.181, both P 0.05). There is still sporadic Fasciola infection in Binchuan County. Eating raw vegetables and drinking unboiled water which are contaminated by Fasciola metacercariae may be the infection routes of local people, and to find out the exact entrance way is the key points for the infection control.

  14. Age-dependent terminal declines in reproductive output in a wild bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martijn Hammers

    Full Text Available In many iteroparous species individual fitness components, such as reproductive output, first increase with age and then decline during late-life. However, individuals differ greatly in reproductive lifespan, but reproductive declines may only occur in the period just before their death as a result of an age-independent decline in physiological condition. To fully understand reproductive senescence it is important to investigate to what extent declines in late-life reproduction can be explained by age, time until death, or both. However, the study of late-life fitness performance in natural populations is challenging as the exact birth and death dates of individuals are often not known, and most individuals succumb to extrinsic mortality before reaching old age. Here, we used an exceptional long-term longitudinal dataset of individuals from a natural, closed, and predator-free population of the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis to investigate reproductive output, both in relation to age and to the time until the death of an individual (reverse-age approach. We observed an initial age-dependent increase in reproductive output that was followed by a decline in old age. However, we found no significant decline in reproductive output in the years directly preceding death. Although post-peak reproductive output declined with age, this pattern differed between terminal and non-terminal reproductive attempts, and the age-dependence of the terminal breeding attempt explained much of the variation in age-specific reproductive output. In fact, terminal declines in reproductive output were steeper in very old individuals. These results indicate that not only age-dependent, but also age-independent factors, such as physiological condition, need to be considered to understand reproductive senescence in wild-living animals.

  15. Molecular typing and epidemiological investigation of clinical populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa using an oligonucleotide-microarray

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballarini Annalisa

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen which has the potential to become extremely harmful in the nosocomial environment, especially for cystic fibrosis (CF patients, who are easily affected by chronic lung infections. For epidemiological purposes, discriminating P.aeruginosa isolates is a critical step, to define distribution of clones among hospital departments, to predict occurring microevolution events and to correlate clones to their source. A collection of 182 P. aeruginosa clinical strains isolated within Italian hospitals from patients with chronic infections, i.e. cystic fibrosis (CF patients, and with acute infections were genotyped. Molecular typing was performed with the ArrayTube (AT multimarker microarray (Alere Technologies GmbH, Jena, Germany, a cost-effective, time-saving and standardized method, which addresses genes from both the core and accessory P.aeruginosa genome. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE and multilocus sequence typing (MLST were employed as reference genotyping techniques to estimate the ArrayTube resolution power. Results 41 AT-genotypes were identified within our collection, among which 14 were novel and 27 had been previously described in publicly available AT-databases. Almost 30% of the genotypes belonged to a main cluster of clones. 4B9A, EC2A, 3C2A were mostly associated to CF-patients whereas F469, 2C1A, 6C22 to non CF. An investigation on co-infections events revealed that almost 40% of CF patients were colonized by more than one genotype, whereas less than 4% were observed in non CF patients. The presence of the exoU gene correlated with non-CF patients within the intensive care unit (ICU whereas the pKLC102-like island appeared to be prevalent in the CF centre. The congruence between the ArrayTube typing and PFGE or MLST was 0.077 and 0.559 (Adjusted Rand coefficient, respectively. AT typing of this Italian collection could be easily integrated with the global P

  16. Pilot case-control investigation of risk factors for hip fractures in the urban Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malhotra Nidhi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the reported high prevalence of osteoporosis in India, there have been no previous studies examining the risk factors for hip fracture in the Indian population. Methods We carried out a case control investigation comprising 100 case subjects (57 women and 43 men admitted with a first hip fracture into one of three hospitals across New Delhi. The 100 controls were age and sex matched subjects who were either healthy visitors not related to the case patients or hospital staff. Information from all subjects was obtained through a questionnaire based interview. Results There was a significant increase in the number of cases of hip fracture with increasing age. There were significantly more women (57% than men (43%. Univariate analysis identified protective effects for increased activity, exercise, calcium and vitamin supplements, almonds, fish, paneer (cottage cheese, curd (plain yogurt, and milk. However, tea and other caffeinated beverages were significant risk factors. In women, hormone/estrogen therapy appeared to have a marginal protective effect. For all cases, decreased agility, visual impairment, long term medications, chronic illnesses increased the risk of hip fracture. The multivariate analysis confirmed a protective effect of increased activity and also showed a decrease in hip fracture risk with increasing body mass index (odds ratio (OR 0.024, 95% confidence interval (CI 0.006-0.10 & OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.97 respectively. Individuals who take calcium supplements have a decreased risk of hip fracture (OR 0.076; CI 0.017-0.340, as do individuals who eat fish (OR 0.094; CI 0.020-0.431, and those who eat paneer (OR 0.152; 0.031-0.741. Tea drinkers have a higher risk of hip fracture (OR 22.8; 95% CI 3.73-139.43. Difficulty in getting up from a chair also appears to be an important risk factor for hip fractures (OR 14.53; 95% CI 3.86-54.23. Conclusions In the urban Indian population, dietary calcium, vitamin D

  17. Mangrove forest decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malik, Abdul; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests in the tropics and subtropics grow in saline sediments in coastal and estuarine environments. Preservation of mangrove forests is important for many reasons, including the prevention of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion; the provision of spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds...... of diverse marine biota; and for direct use (such as firewood, charcoal, and construction material)—all of which benefit the sustainability of local communities. However, for many mangrove areas of the world, unsustainable resource utilization and the profit orientation of communities have often led to rapid...... and severe mangrove loss with serious consequences. The mangrove forests of the Takalar District, South Sulawesi, are studied here as a case area that has suffered from degradation and declining spatial extent during recent decades. On the basis of a post-classification comparison of change detection from...

  18. A Biocultural Investigation of Gender Differences in Tobacco Use in an Egalitarian Hunter-Gatherer Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulette, Casey J; Hagen, Edward; Hewlett, Barry S

    2016-06-01

    In the developing world, the dramatic male bias in tobacco use is usually ascribed to pronounced gender disparities in social, political, or economic power. This bias might also reflect under-reporting by woman and/or over-reporting by men. To test the role of gender inequality on gender differences in tobacco use we investigated tobacco use among the Aka, a Congo Basin foraging population noted for its exceptionally high degree of gender equality. We also tested a sexual selection hypothesis-that Aka men's tobacco use is related to risk taking. Tobacco use, income, tobacco purchases, tobacco sharing, reasons for using tobacco, risk taking, and other variables were measured using structured surveys and peer reports. Tobacco use was verified by testing for salivary cotinine, a nicotine metabolite. Contrary to expectations, we found a very large male bias in tobacco use. Low levels of use among females appeared to be explained by aversions to tobacco, concerns over its negative effects on fetal health, and a desire to attract husbands, who prefer nonsmoking wives. High male use appeared to be related to a desire to enhance hunting abilities and attract and/or retain wives, who prefer husbands that smoke. We conclude that low levels of smoking by Aka women are better explained by the hypothesis that women evolved to avoid plant toxins to protect their fetuses and nursing infants. High male use might be better explained by sexual selection. We also highlight the important role that recreational drugs appear to play in hunter-gatherer sharing relationships.

  19. Analytic Investigation Into Effect of Population Heterogeneity on Parameter Ratio Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Colleen; Carlone, Marco; Warkentin, Brad; Fallone, B. Gino

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: A homogeneous tumor control probability (TCP) model has previously been used to estimate the α/β ratio for prostate cancer from clinical dose-response data. For the ratio to be meaningful, it must be assumed that parameter ratios are not sensitive to the type of tumor control model used. We investigated the validity of this assumption by deriving analytic relationships between the α/β estimates from a homogeneous TCP model, ignoring interpatient heterogeneity, and those of the corresponding heterogeneous (population-averaged) model that incorporated heterogeneity. Methods and Materials: The homogeneous and heterogeneous TCP models can both be written in terms of the geometric parameters D 50 and γ 50 . We show that the functional forms of these models are similar. This similarity was used to develop an expression relating the homogeneous and heterogeneous estimates for the α/β ratio. The expression was verified numerically by generating pseudo-data from a TCP curve with known parameters and then using the homogeneous and heterogeneous TCP models to estimate the α/β ratio for the pseudo-data. Results: When the dominant form of interpatient heterogeneity is that of radiosensitivity, the homogeneous and heterogeneous α/β estimates differ. This indicates that the presence of this heterogeneity affects the value of the α/β ratio derived from analysis of TCP curves. Conclusions: The α/β ratio estimated from clinical dose-response data is model dependent-a heterogeneous TCP model that accounts for heterogeneity in radiosensitivity will produce a greater α/β estimate than that resulting from a homogeneous TCP model

  20. Investigating Global Ion and Neutral Atom Populations with IBEX and Voyager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florinski, Vladimir

    2016-01-01

    The main objective of this project was to investigate pickup ion (PUI) production in the solar wind and heliosheath (the region between the termination shock and the heliopause) and compute the distributed energetic neutral atom fluxes throughout the helioshpere. The simulations were constrained by comparing the model output against observations from Ulysses, New Horizons, Voyager 1 and 2, and IBEX space probes. As evidenced by the number of peer reviewed journal publications resulting from the project (13 plus three submitted) and their citation rate (156 citations over three years), the project has made a lasting contribution to the field. The outcome is a significant improvement of our understanding of the pickup ion production and distribution in the distant heliosphere. The team has accomplished the entire set of tasks A-H set forth in the proposal. Namely, the transport modeling framework has been augmented with two populations of pickup ions (PUIs), the boundary conditions for the plasma and interstellar neutral hydrogen were verified against Ulysses and New Horizons PUI and an optimal set of velocity diffusion parameters established. The multi-component fluxes of PUIs were computed and isotropic velocity distributions generated for each cell in the computer simulation that covered the heliosphere from 1.5 AU to the heliopause. The distributions were carefully compared with in situ measurements at 3 AU (Ulysses), 12 AU (New Horizons), and 80-90 AU (Voyager 1 and 2) as well as those inferred from ENA fluxes measured by Cassini and IBEX (Wu et al., 2016). Some examples of modeldata comparison are shown in Figure 1. We have used coupled MHD-plasma and kinetic-neutral code to investigate the likely range of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the local interstellar medium (LISM), based on the assumption that the shape of the IBEX ribbon could be used to determine the orientation of the interstellar magnetic field. While the magnetic field is believed to be

  1. Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Feng

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs, three nuclear genes (nDNAs and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs, we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.

  2. [Investigation of urinary cadmium characteristics of the general population in three non-cadmium-polluted rural areas in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jingxiu; Hu, Ji; Sun, Hong; Jing, Qiqing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Lou, Xiaoming; Ding, Zhen; Chen, Xiaodong; Zhang, Wenli; Shang, Qi

    2014-11-01

    To investigate the characteristics of urinary cadmium of the non-occupational-cadmium-exposed population in non-cadmium contaminated rural area in China. Randomly selected non-occupational cadmium exposed population 2548 people (male 1290, female 1258) with each gender and age groups, questionnaire surveyed and collected random urine. Urinary cadmium and urinary creatinine (Cr) concentration were tested, excluding urinary Cr 3 g/L. Analyze the impact factors of urinary cadmium and calculated 95% quantile (P95) of urinary cadmium after correction by urinary Cr. Urinary cadmium increased with age and showed an upward trend. The urinary cadmium of the population of ≥ 30 years old was significantly higher than that of populations (China (GB Z17-2002). The urinary cadmium reference value of non-occupational-cadmium-exposed populations is China, but for smoking women over 30 year-old it needs more research to explore.

  3. Kinship and the decline of fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y

    1996-01-01

    China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

  4. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause

  5. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause.

  6. Bereavement and behavioral changes as risk factors for cognitive decline in adults with Down syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Luciana Mascarenhas; de Oliveira, Melaine Cristina; de Figueiredo Ferreira Guilhoto, Laura Maria; Cavalheiro, Esper Abrao; Bottino, Cássio Mc

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease often affect older adults with Down syndrome (DS) much earlier than those in the general population. There is also growing evidence of the effects of negative life events on the mental health and behavior of individuals with intellectual disability. However, to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating objective cognitive decline following bereavement in aging individuals with DS. The objective of this study was to determine whether cognitive decline correlates with bereavement following the recent loss of a caregiver or with behavioral changes in a sample of adult individuals with DS who do not meet the criteria for dementia or depression, using the longitudinal assessment of the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), together with the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). We evaluated 18 subjects at baseline and over a follow-up period of 14-22 months, attempting to determine whether cognitive decline correlates with bereavement following the recent loss of the main caregiver or with behavioral changes (as assessed with the Neuropsychiatric Inventory). The mean rate of change in CAMCOG was -1.83 (standard deviation 4.51). Behavioral changes had a significant direct influence on cognitive decline. When bereavement was accompanied by behavioral changes, the probability of cognitive decline was 87% (odds ratio 3.82). The occurrence of behavioral changes attributed to bereavement following the loss of the primary caregiver significantly increases the probability of cognitive decline in individuals with DS. Longitudinal comparison of the CAMCOG and use of the IQCODE appear to enrich the analysis of cognitive decline in individuals with DS. Further studies involving larger samples are needed in order to corroborate and expand upon our findings, which can have implications for the clinical management of older adults with DS.

  7. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  8. Alarming decline and range reduction of the highly threatened Great ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Great Bustard Otis tarda survey carried out in spring 2015 in Morocco confirmed the decline of this highly endangered population. Bustards were only seen at two of the seven leks occupied ten years ago. The total number of birds counted was 40-44, which represents a 40% decline over the last decade. The sex-ratio ...

  9. Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of Vietnam provides an interesting insight into the sharp decline in child labor. A study of the rising economic status of the population across Vietnam shows that children returned to school or stopped working as their family incomes grew. The decline in child labor is steep in poor households as they emerged from…

  10. Investigations on radiosensitive and radioresistant populations of Drosophila melanogaster. Pt. 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noethel, H.

    1981-01-01

    In earlier work, immature oocytes of the irradiated population RoeI 4 of Drosophila melanogaster were found to be radioresistant relative to those of the basic population RoeI and to those of the control population Berlin wild (+K). The resistance of RoeI 4 relative to RoeI was previously attributed to a hypothetical 'factor' rar-3. In the present paper, evidence is presented to show that rar-3 is a single, recessive genetic factor, located on chromosome 3 at a map position of about 49.8. The action of rar-3 is apparently independent of that of rar-1 and rar-2, the factors already present in RoeI. (orig.)

  11. Investigating Measures of Social Context on 2 Population-Based Health Surveys, Hawaii, 2010-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pobutsky, Ann M; Baker, Kathleen Kromer; Reyes-Salvail, Florentina

    2015-12-17

    Measures from the Social Context Module of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used on 2 population-based health surveys in Hawaii to explicate the role of the nonmedical and social determinants of health; these measures were also compared with conventional socioeconomic status (SES) variables. Results showed that the self-reported SES vulnerabilities of food and housing insecurity are both linked to demographic factors and physical and mental health status and significant when controlling for the conventional measures of SES. The social context module indicators should be increasingly used so results can inform appropriate interventions for vulnerable populations.

  12. A Longitudinal Investigation of Reading Development from Kindergarten to Grade Eight in a Spanish-Speaking Bilingual Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Ryan P.; Solari, Emily J.; Gerber, Michael M.

    2018-01-01

    This longitudinal study used latent growth curve modeling to investigate English literacy development in a sample of Spanish-speaking language minority students from third through eighth grade. This study also compared the sample's literacy development to the entire population of California students using state standardized test data. Second, this…

  13. Investigating a population of infrared-bright gamma-ray burst host galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrimes, Ashley A.; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Levan, Andrew J.; Davies, Luke J. M.; Angus, Charlotte R.; Greis, Stephanie M. L.

    2018-04-01

    We identify and explore the properties of an infrared-bright gamma-ray burst (GRB) host population. Candidate hosts are selected by coincidence with sources in WISE, with matching to random coordinates and a false alarm probability analysis showing that the contamination fraction is ˜ 0.5. This methodology has already identified the host galaxy of GRB 080517. We combine survey photometry from Pan-STARRS, SDSS, APASS, 2MASS, GALEX and WISE with our own WHT/ACAM and VLT/X-shooter observations to classify the candidates and identify interlopers. Galaxy SED fitting is performed using MAGPHYS, in addition to stellar template fitting, yielding 13 possible IR-bright hosts. A further 7 candidates are identified from previously published work. We report a candidate host for GRB 061002, previously unidentified as such. The remainder of the galaxies have already been noted as potential hosts. Comparing the IR-bright population properties including redshift z, stellar mass M⋆, star formation rate SFR and V-band attenuation AV to GRB host catalogues in the literature, we find that the infrared-bright population is biased toward low z, high M⋆ and high AV. This naturally arises from their initial selection - local and dusty galaxies are more likely to have the required IR flux to be detected in WISE. We conclude that while IR-bright GRB hosts are not a physically distinct class, they are useful for constraining existing GRB host populations, particularly for long GRBs.

  14. Cessation of a salmon decline with control of parasites

    KAUST Repository

    Peacock, Stephanie J.; Krkošek, Martin; Proboszcz, Stan; Orr, Craig; Lewis, Mark A.

    2013-01-01

    (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from Pacific Canada indicates that adaptive changes in parasite management on salmon farms have yielded positive conservation outcomes. After four years of sea lice epizootics and wild salmon population decline, parasiticide application

  15. Neighborhood Decline and the Economic Crisis (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, M.D.; Bolt, G.; Van Ham, M.; Van Kempen, R.

    2014-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variation in economic and political structures (including variety in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development and population composition, makes it

  16. Poison blamed for decline of Spain's majestic Black Vultures

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2007-03-01

    catastrophic” decline in numbers because of illegal poisoning by hunters. The use of poisoned bait to kill foxes, badgers, wild dogs, feral cats and smaller birds of prey has reduced the population by almost a half in the past decade,.

  17. Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J Baker

    Full Text Available While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1 changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2 changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3 changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry, we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000-2007 and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011-2014. Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%-100% the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry, we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases that resulted entirely (100% from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

  18. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  19. IQ as moderator of terminal decline in perceptual and motor speed, spatial, and verbal ability: Testing the cognitive reserve hypothesis in a population-based sample followed from age 70 until death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorvaldsson, Valgeir; Skoog, Ingmar; Johansson, Boo

    2017-03-01

    Terminal decline (TD) refers to acceleration in within-person cognitive decline prior to death. The cognitive reserve hypothesis postulates that individuals with higher IQ are able to better tolerate age-related increase in brain pathologies. On average, they will exhibit a later onset of TD, but once they start to decline, their trajectory is steeper relative to those with lower IQ. We tested these predictions using data from initially nondemented individuals (n = 179) in the H70-study repeatedly measured at ages 70, 75, 79, 81, 85, 88, 90, 92, 95, 97, 99, and 100, or until death, on cognitive tests of perceptual-and-motor-speed and spatial and verbal ability. We quantified IQ using the Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (RCPM) test administrated at age 70. We fitted random change point TD models to the data, within a Bayesian framework, conditioned on IQ, age of death, education, and sex. In line with predictions, we found that 1 additional standard deviation on the IQ scale was associated with a delay in onset of TD by 1.87 (95% highest density interval [HDI; 0.20, 4.08]) years on speed, 1.96 (95% HDI [0.15, 3.54]) years on verbal ability, but only 0.88 (95% HDI [-0.93, 3.49]) year on spatial ability. Higher IQ was associated with steeper rate of decline within the TD phase on measures of speed and verbal ability, whereas results on spatial ability were nonconclusive. Our findings provide partial support for the cognitive reserve hypothesis and demonstrate that IQ can be a significant moderator of cognitive change trajectories in old age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Investigation of the indigenous fungal community populating barley grains: Secretomes and xylanolytic potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sultan, Abida; Frisvad, Jens Christian; Andersen, Birgit

    2017-01-01

    The indigenous fungal species populating cereal grains produce numerous plant cell wall-degrading enzymes including xylanases, which could play important role in plant-pathogen interactions and in adaptation of the fungi to varying carbon sources. To gain more insight into the grain surface......-associated enzyme activity, members of the populating fungal community were isolated, and their secretomes and xylanolytic activities assessed. Twenty-seven different fungal species were isolated from grains of six barley cultivars over different harvest years and growing sites. The isolated fungi were grown...... on medium containing barley flour or wheat arabinoxylan as sole carbon source. Their secretomes and xylanase activities were analyzed using SDS-PAGE and enzyme assays and were found to vary according to species and carbon source. Secretomes were dominated by cell wall degrading enzymes with xylanases...

  1. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...... and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated...... to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass...

  2. Functional Investigations of HNF1A Identify Rare Variants as Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes in the General Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najmi, Laeya Abdoli; Aukrust, Ingvild; Flannick, Jason; Molnes, Janne; Burtt, Noel; Molven, Anders; Groop, Leif; Altshuler, David; Johansson, Stefan; Njølstad, Pål Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Variants in HNF1A encoding hepatocyte nuclear factor 1α (HNF-1A) are associated with maturity-onset diabetes of the young form 3 (MODY 3) and type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether functional classification of HNF1A rare coding variants can inform models of diabetes risk prediction in the general population by analyzing the effect of 27 HNF1A variants identified in well-phenotyped populations (n = 4,115). Bioinformatics tools classified 11 variants as likely pathogenic and showed no association with diabetes risk (combined minor allele frequency [MAF] 0.22%; odds ratio [OR] 2.02; 95% CI 0.73–5.60; P = 0.18). However, a different set of 11 variants that reduced HNF-1A transcriptional activity to diabetes in the general population (combined MAF 0.22%; OR 5.04; 95% CI 1.99–12.80; P = 0.0007). Our functional investigations indicate that 0.44% of the population carry HNF1A variants that result in a substantially increased risk for developing diabetes. These results suggest that functional characterization of variants within MODY genes may overcome the limitations of bioinformatics tools for the purposes of presymptomatic diabetes risk prediction in the general population. PMID:27899486

  3. HOW TO DESIGN NUTRITIONAL INTERVENTION TRIALS TO SLOW COGNITIVE DECLINE IN APPARENTLY HEALTHY POPULATIONS AND APPLY FOR EFFICACY CLAIMS: A STATEMENT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL ACADEMY ON NUTRITION AND AGING TASK FORCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, M.; Coley, N.; Andrieu, S.; Bonhomme, C.; Caubere, J.P.; Cesari, M.; Gautry, J.; Garcia Sanchez, I.; Hugonot, L.; Mansuy, L.; Pahor, M.; Pariente, J.; Ritz, P.; Salva, A.; Sijben, J.; Wieggers, R.; Ythier-Moury, P.; Zaim, M.; Zetlaoui, J.; Vellas, B.

    2015-01-01

    Interventions are crucial as they offer simple and inexpensive public health solutions that will be useful over the long term use. A Task Force on designing trials of nutritional interventions to slow cognitive decline in older adults was held in Toulouse in September 2012. The aim of the Task Force was to bring together leading experts from academia, the food industry and regulatory agencies to determine the best trial designs that would enable us to reach our goal of maintaining or improving cognitive function in apparently healthy aging people. An associated challenge for this Task Force was to determine the type of trials required by the Public Food Agencies for assessing the impact of nutritional compounds in comparison to well established requirements for drug trials. Although the required quality of the study design, rationale and statistical analysis remains the same, the studies designed to show reduction of cognitive decline require a long duration and the objectives of this task force was to determine best design for these trials. Two specific needs were identified to support trials of nutritional interventions: 1- Risk- reduction strategies are needed to tackle the growing burden of cognitive decline that may lead to dementia, 2- Innovative study designs are needed to improve the quality of these studies. PMID:23933873

  4. Investigation of Orbital Debris: Mitigation, Removal, and Modeling the Debris Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotten, Joel

    The population of objects in orbit around Earth has grown since the late 1950s. Today there are over 21,000 objects over 10 cm in length in orbit, and an estimated 500,000 more between 1 and 10 cm. Only a small fraction of these objects are operational satellites. The rest are debris: old derelict spacecraft or rocket bodies, fragments created as the result of explosions or collisions, discarded objects, slag from solid rockets, or even flaked off paint. Traveling at up to 7 km/s, a collision with even a 1 cm piece of debris could severely damage or destroy a satellite. This dissertation examines three aspects of orbital debris. First, the concept of a self-consuming satellite is explored. This nanosatellite would use its own external structure as propellant to execute a deorbit maneuver at the end of its operational life, thus allowing it to meet current debris mitigation standards. Results from lab experiments examining potential materials for this concept have shown favorable results. Second, Particle in Cell techniques are modified and used to model the plasma plume from a micro-cathode arc thruster. This model is then applied to the concept of an ion beam shepherd satellite. This satellite would use its plasma plume to deorbit another derelict satellite. Results from these simulations indicate the micro-cathode arc thruster could potentially deorbit a derelict CubeSat in a matter of a few weeks. Finally, the orbital debris population at geosynchronous orbit is examined, focusing on variations in the density of the population as a function of longitude. New insights are revealed demonstrating that the variation in population density is slightly less than previously reported.

  5. Determination of existing exposure level of population during X ray investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tselinov, N.V.; Kudritskij, Yu.K.

    1978-01-01

    The distribution of X ray procedures among 500 inhabitants of the city of Vorkuta in 1975 is studied. Data on the distribution of the subjects by age group and type of X ray procedure are presented. The results obtained broaden the existing concepts on hygienic importance of radiation received by the population of the country during X ray studies. It is proposed that these results be used in developing methods for standardizing X ray procedures

  6. A statistical investigation into the stability of iris recognition in diverse population sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, John J.; Etter, Delores M.

    2014-05-01

    Iris recognition is increasingly being deployed on population wide scales for important applications such as border security, social service administration, criminal identification and general population management. The error rates for this incredibly accurate form of biometric identification are established using well known, laboratory quality datasets. However, it is has long been acknowledged in biometric theory that not all individuals have the same likelihood of being correctly serviced by a biometric system. Typically, techniques for identifying clients that are likely to experience a false non-match or a false match error are carried out on a per-subject basis. This research makes the novel hypothesis that certain ethnical denominations are more or less likely to experience a biometric error. Through established statistical techniques, we demonstrate this hypothesis to be true and document the notable effect that the ethnicity of the client has on iris similarity scores. Understanding the expected impact of ethnical diversity on iris recognition accuracy is crucial to the future success of this technology as it is deployed in areas where the target population consists of clientele from a range of geographic backgrounds, such as border crossings and immigration check points.

  7. Estimation of stature from hand and handprint measurements in Iban population in Sarawak, Malaysia and its applications in forensic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkifly, Nuranis-Raihan; Wahab, Roswanira Abd; Layang, Elizabeth; Ismail, Dzulkiflee; Desa, Wan Nur Syuhaila Mat; Hisham, Salina; Mahat, Naji A

    2018-01-01

    Handprints and dismembered hands are commonly found during crime scene investigations and disaster victim identifications, respectively. It has been indicated that the accuracy of handprint and hand measurements for estimating stature maybe population specific. Since Iban is the largest ethnic population in Sarawak, Malaysia and because the application of anthropometry of hand and handprint within this population as well as other populations within the Southeast Asian countries remain unreported, this present study that investigated the reliability and accuracy of these two anthropometric aspects acquires forensic significance. Upon measuring the height, 21 measurements were recorded on each hand and the corresponding handprint of 50 male and 52 female consented adult Iban subjects. Using univariate statistics as well as simple and multiple regression analyses, interpretation of the measurements examined here was attempted. Results revealed that lengths of hand and handprint are the more reliable traits for estimating stature in both the male and female Iban subjects (p Sarawak that may prove useful for crime scene investigations and disaster victim identifications in Malaysia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  8. Forensic performance of Investigator DIPplex indels genotyping kit in native, immigrant, and admixed populations in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefke, Gwynneth; Davison, Sean; D'Amato, Maria Eugenia

    2015-12-01

    The utilization of binary markers in human individual identification is gaining ground in forensic genetics. We analyzed the polymorphisms from the first commercial indel kit Investigator DIPplex (Qiagen) in 512 individuals from Afrikaner, Indian, admixed Cape Colored, and the native Bantu Xhosa and Zulu origin in South Africa and evaluated forensic and population genetics parameters for their forensic application in South Africa. The levels of genetic diversity in population and forensic parameters in South Africa are similar to other published data, with lower diversity values for the native Bantu. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations were observed in HLD97 in Indians, Admixed and Bantus, along with 6.83% null homozygotes in the Bantu populations. Sequencing of the flanking regions showed a previously reported transition G>A in rs17245568. Strong population structure was detected with Fst, AMOVA, and the Bayesian unsupervised clustering method in STRUCTURE. Therefore we evaluated the efficiency of individual assignments to population groups using the ancestral membership proportions from STRUCTURE and the Bayesian classification algorithm in Snipper App Suite. Both methods showed low cross-assignment error (0-4%) between Bantus and either Afrikaners or Indians. The differentiation between populations seems to be driven by four loci under positive selection pressure. Based on these results, we draw recommendations for the application of this kit in SA. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Mobility decline in old age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

  10. Investigation of the Influence of Leaf Thickness on Canopy Reflectance and Physiological Traits in Upland and Pima Cotton Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duke Pauli

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Many systems for field-based, high-throughput phenotyping (FB-HTP quantify and characterize the reflected radiation from the crop canopy to derive phenotypes, as well as infer plant function and health status. However, given the technology's nascent status, it remains unknown how biophysical and physiological properties of the plant canopy impact downstream interpretation and application of canopy reflectance data. In that light, we assessed relationships between leaf thickness and several canopy-associated traits, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, which was collected via active reflectance sensors carried on a mobile FB-HTP system, carbon isotope discrimination (CID, and chlorophyll content. To investigate the relationships among traits, two distinct cotton populations, an upland (Gossypium hirsutum L. recombinant inbred line (RIL population of 95 lines and a Pima (G. barbadense L. population composed of 25 diverse cultivars, were evaluated under contrasting irrigation regimes, water-limited (WL and well-watered (WW conditions, across 3 years. We detected four quantitative trait loci (QTL and significant variation in both populations for leaf thickness among genotypes as well as high estimates of broad-sense heritability (on average, above 0.7 for both populations, indicating a strong genetic basis for leaf thickness. Strong phenotypic correlations (maximum r = −0.73 were observed between leaf thickness and NDVI in the Pima population, but not the RIL population. Additionally, estimated genotypic correlations within the RIL population for leaf thickness with CID, chlorophyll content, and nitrogen discrimination (r^gij = −0.32, 0.48, and 0.40, respectively were all significant under WW but not WL conditions. Economically important fiber quality traits did not exhibit significant phenotypic or genotypic correlations with canopy traits. Overall, our results support considering variation in leaf thickness as a potential

  11. Epidemiological investigation of gastrointestinal parasites in dog populations in Basra province, Southern Iraq

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Jassim, Khawla B. N.; Mahmmod, Yasser Saadeldien Ibrahim; Salem, Zainab M.

    2017-01-01

    for the presence of worm eggs and protozoal oocysts, using centrifugal flotation method. The overall prevalence of infected dogs was 77.4% (72/93). About 54.8% (51/93) dogs were infected with more than one genus of parasites. The prevalence of multiple infections with two, three, and four parasites was 30.1% (28.......02). The high prevalence of intestinal helminths in dog’s population suggesting the need for more efficient control measures. The high prevalence of T. canis, T. vulpis, A. caninum and Giardia spp. suggested that dogs could play an active role in the transmission of zoonotic parasites in this area of Iraq...

  12. Roles of Arterial Stiffness and Blood Pressure in Hypertension-Associated Cognitive Decline in Healthy Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajjar, Ihab; Goldstein, Felicia C; Martin, Greg S; Quyyumi, Arshed A

    2016-01-01

    Although there is strong evidence that hypertension leads to cognitive decline, especially in the executive domain, the relationship between blood pressure and cognition has been conflicted. Hypertension is characterized by blood pressure elevation and increased arterial stiffness. We aimed at investigating whether arterial stiffness would be superior to blood pressure in predicting cognitive decline and explaining the hypertension-executive decline association. A randomly selected asymptomatic population (n=591, age=49.2 years, 70% women, 27% black, and education=18 years) underwent annual vascular and cognitive assessments. Cognition was assessed using computerized versions commonly used cognitive tests, and principal component analysis was used for deriving cognitive scores for executive function, memory, and working memory. Arterial stiffness was measured by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV). Higher PWV, but not blood pressure, was associated with a steeper decline in executive (P=0.0002), memory (P=0.05), and working memory (P=0.02) scores after adjusting for demographics, education, and baseline cognitive performance. This remained true after adjusting for hypertension. Hypertension was associated with greater decline in executive score (P=0.0029) and those with combined hypertension and elevated PWV (>7 m/s) had the greatest decline in executive score (P value hypertension×PWV=0.02). PWV explained the association between hypertension and executive function (P value for hypertension=0.0029 versus 0.24 when adjusting for PWV). In healthy adults, increased arterial stiffness is superior to blood pressure in predicting cognitive decline in all domains and in explaining the hypertension-executive function association. Arterial stiffness, especially in hypertension, may be a target in the prevention of cognitive decline. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Investigation into Host Selection of the Cecal Acetogen Population in Rabbits after Weaning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunlei Yang

    Full Text Available Homoacetogenic bacteria have received attention as a hydrogenotrophic population that offers a significant energetic advantage to the host animal. Reductive acetogenesis is likely an important hydrogen disposal mechanism in the cecum of rabbits. However, molecular ecology information about cecal acetogen candidates has rarely been reported. To better understand the effect of host selection in the rabbit cecal acetogen community with respect to growth, rabbits at four different age stages (30, 60, 120 and 180 days with the same diet were studied. Although the abundance of potential acetogens and methanogens was high in the cecum of rabbits undergoing growth, many novel potential acetogen populations were observed in the cecum of rabbits across all age groups. Young and adult rabbits had their own distinct acetogen community although they received the same diet, which suggests that as the rabbit ages, acetogens in the cecum undergo developmental changes because of host selection that are independent of diet, and perhaps the different acetogen communities result in different hydrogenotrophic characteristics. The within-group similarity increased with age, indicating that the acetogen community converges to a more homogeneous and stable arrangement with aging.

  14. Predictive neuromechanical simulations indicate why walking performance declines with ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Seungmoon; Geyer, Hartmut

    2018-04-01

    Although the natural decline in walking performance with ageing affects the quality of life of a growing elderly population, its physiological origins remain unknown. By using predictive neuromechanical simulations of human walking with age-related neuro-musculo-skeletal changes, we find evidence that the loss of muscle strength and muscle contraction speed dominantly contribute to the reduced walking economy and speed. The findings imply that focusing on recovering these muscular changes may be the only effective way to improve performance in elderly walking. More generally, the work is of interest for investigating the physiological causes of altered gait due to age, injury and disorders. Healthy elderly people walk slower and energetically less efficiently than young adults. This decline in walking performance lowers the quality of life for a growing ageing population, and understanding its physiological origin is critical for devising interventions that can delay or revert it. However, the origin of the decline in walking performance remains unknown, as ageing produces a range of physiological changes whose individual effects on gait are difficult to separate in experiments with human subjects. Here we use a predictive neuromechanical model to separately address the effects of common age-related changes to the skeletal, muscular and nervous systems. We find in computer simulations of this model that the combined changes produce gait consistent with elderly walking and that mainly the loss of muscle strength and mass reduces energy efficiency. In addition, we find that the slower preferred walking speed of elderly people emerges in the simulations when adapting to muscle fatigue, again mainly caused by muscle-related changes. The results suggest that a focus on recovering these muscular changes may be the only effective way to improve performance in elderly walking. © 2018 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2018 The Physiological Society.

  15. Modeling the decline of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, 1989-1998: the importance of survival vs. recruitment

    OpenAIRE

    Arthur, Stephen M.; Whitten, Kenneth R.; Mauer, Francis J.; Cooley, Dorothy

    2003-01-01

    The Porcupine caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) herd increased from approximately 100 000 animals during the 1970s to 178 000 in 1989, then declined to 129 000 by 1998. Our objective was to model the dynamics of this herd and investigate the potential that lower calf recruitment, as was observed during 1991-1993, produced the observed population changes. A deterministic model was prepared using estimates of birth and survival rates that reproduced the pattern of population growth from 1971-1...

  16. Is daily routine important for sleep? An investigation of social rhythms in a clinical insomnia population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, Taryn G; Carney, Colleen E; Haynes, Patricia; Harris, Andrea L

    2015-02-01

    Social rhythms, also known as daily routines (e.g. exercise, of school or work, recreation, social activities), have been identified as potential time cues to help to regulate the biological clock. Past research has shown links between regularity and healthy sleep. This study examined the regularity and frequency of daytime activities in a clinical insomnia population and a good sleeper comparison group. Participants (N = 69) prospectively monitored their sleep and daily activities for a 2-week period. Although participants with insomnia and good sleepers had similar levels of activity, relative to good sleepers, those with insomnia were less regular in their activities. Findings from this study add to the growing number of studies that highlight the relative importance of the regularity of daytime activities on sleep. Accordingly, future research should test treatment components that focus on regulating daytime activities, which would likely improve treatment outcomes.

  17. Genetic Investigations Using Immuno-biochemical Markers in a Maramureş Brown Cattle Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Isfan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of the genetic markers and identifying new markers involves an increasing number of research projects in the fields of genetics of immunology, biochemical genetics, molecular genetics, quantity genetics and the genetic improvement of animals. Some studies on genes frequency determining the red cells specificity and for whey hemoglobin are approached in the present report. In this way, some blood factors, most of them belonging to B system (the most complex system in cattle have been evidenced. The lowest gene frequency was present in K factor (7%, and highest one in, O1, G’ , W and F1 (100%. In addition to basic importance on knowledge and determination of cattle population genetic structure for studied protein loci, another theme proposed to correlate hemoglobin type with some traits of economical importance: milk yield, fat and protein content, fat and protein yield. Higher performance was recorded by HbA/HbA individuals.

  18. Investigating the phenology of seaward migration of juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta) in two European populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winter, E R.; Tummers, J. S.; Aarestrup, Kim

    2016-01-01

    , evidence that spring migrants were of better condition, travelled faster (autumn: 11.0 km day-1; spring: 24.3 km day-1) and were more likely to leave the Deerness suggests that autumn and spring migrant conspecifics respond to different behavioural motivations. Further investigation into the sex of autumn...

  19. Investigation of the indigenous fungal community populating barley grains: Secretomes and xylanolytic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Abida; Frisvad, Jens C; Andersen, Birgit; Svensson, Birte; Finnie, Christine

    2017-10-03

    The indigenous fungal species populating cereal grains produce numerous plant cell wall-degrading enzymes including xylanases, which could play important role in plant-pathogen interactions and in adaptation of the fungi to varying carbon sources. To gain more insight into the grain surface-associated enzyme activity, members of the populating fungal community were isolated, and their secretomes and xylanolytic activities assessed. Twenty-seven different fungal species were isolated from grains of six barley cultivars over different harvest years and growing sites. The isolated fungi were grown on medium containing barley flour or wheat arabinoxylan as sole carbon source. Their secretomes and xylanase activities were analyzed using SDS-PAGE and enzyme assays and were found to vary according to species and carbon source. Secretomes were dominated by cell wall degrading enzymes with xylanases and xylanolytic enzymes being the most abundant. A 2-DE-based secretome analysis of Aspergillus niger and the less-studied pathogenic fungus Fusarium poae grown on barley flour and wheat arabinoxylan resulted in identification of 82 A. niger and 31 F. poae proteins many of which were hydrolytic enzymes, including xylanases. The microorganisms that inhabit the surface of cereal grains are specialized in production of enzymes such as xylanases, which depolymerize plant cell walls. Integration of gel-based proteomics approach with activity assays is a powerful tool for analysis and characterization of fungal secretomes and xylanolytic activities which can lead to identification of new enzymes with interesting properties, as well as provide insight into plant-fungal interactions, fungal pathogenicity and adaptation. Understanding the fungal response to host niche is of importance to uncover novel targets for potential symbionts, anti-fungal agents and biotechnical applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Preliminary Investigations Showing Venous Thromboembolism Recurrence in Patients with Residual Venous Obstruction in Singaporean Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sule, Ashish Anil; Er, Chaozer; Chong, Claudia Y X; Chin, Han Xin; Chin, Tay Jam

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to determine the association of residual venous obstruction (RVO) with recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE). A retrospective cohort study was conducted determining if RVO on ultrasonography is associated with recurrent VTE in a Singaporean population. The subjects were identified from the Vascular Diagnostic Laboratory patients' record of Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), Singapore between 2008 and 2013. All the patients included had RVO after 3 months of anticoagulation. Data such as age, gender, race, thrombus location, etiology, history of malignancy, thrombophilia screen, treatment duration, and follow-up were recorded for analysis. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata/SE 13.1 (StataCorp LLC). The study was approved by the National Healthcare Group Domain Specific Review Board (DSRB), Singapore. Out of the 34 patients who had RVO, 6 (17.6%) developed VTE recurrence. Patients were treated with anticoagulation for a mean time of 24.5 months. The mean follow-up time for VTE recurrence was 25.4 months. Out of the six patients who had VTE recurrence, one had common iliac vein involvement, four had superficial femoral vein and common femoral vein involvement, zero had popliteal vein involvement, and one had calf veins involvement. There was a significant association between thrombophilia ( p  = 0.0195) and malignancy ( p  = 0.020) at inclusion with the risk of recurrent VTE. The presence of RVO after 3 months of anticoagulation is likely to increase the risk of VTE recurrence. Larger studies with RVO are needed to evaluate if there is an increased risk of VTE recurrence in the Asian population.

  1. Investigating pulmonary and systemic pharmacokinetics of inhaled olodaterol in healthy volunteers using a population pharmacokinetic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghardt, Jens Markus; Weber, Benjamin; Staab, Alexander; Kunz, Christina; Formella, Stephan; Kloft, Charlotte

    2016-03-01

    Olodaterol, a novel β2-adrenergic receptor agonist, is a long-acting, once-daily inhaled bronchodilator approved for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The aim of the present study was to describe the plasma and urine pharmacokinetics of olodaterol after intravenous administration and oral inhalation in healthy volunteers by population pharmacokinetic modelling and thereby to infer its pulmonary fate. Plasma and urine data after intravenous administration (0.5-25 μg) and oral inhalation (2.5-70 μg via the Respimat® inhaler) were available from a total of 148 healthy volunteers (single and multiple dosing). A stepwise model building approach was applied, using population pharmacokinetic modelling. Systemic disposition parameters were fixed to estimates obtained from intravenous data when modelling data after inhalation. A pharmacokinetic model, including three depot compartments with associated parallel first-order absorption processes (pulmonary model) on top of a four-compartment body model (systemic disposition model), was found to describe the data the best. The dose reaching the lung (pulmonary bioavailable fraction) was estimated to be 49.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 46.1, 52.7%] of the dose released from the device. A large proportion of the pulmonary bioavailable fraction [70.1% (95% CI 66.8, 73.3%)] was absorbed with a half-life of 21.8 h (95% CI 19.7, 24.4 h). The plasma and urine pharmacokinetics of olodaterol after intravenous administration and oral inhalation in healthy volunteers were adequately described. The key finding was that a high proportion of the pulmonary bioavailable fraction had an extended pulmonary residence time. This finding was not expected based on the physicochemical properties of olodaterol. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

  2. Cleaning at Home and at Work in Relation to Lung Function Decline and Airway Obstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svanes, Øistein; Bertelsen, Randi J; Lygre, Stein H L; Carsin, Anne E; Antó, Josep M; Forsberg, Bertil; García-García, José M; Gullón, José A; Heinrich, Joachim; Holm, Mathias; Kogevinas, Manolis; Urrutia, Isabel; Leynaert, Bénédicte; Moratalla, Jesús M; Le Moual, Nicole; Lytras, Theodore; Norbäck, Dan; Nowak, Dennis; Olivieri, Mario; Pin, Isabelle; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Schlünssen, Vivi; Sigsgaard, Torben; Skorge, Trude D; Villani, Simona; Jarvis, Debbie; Zock, Jan P; Svanes, Cecilie

    2018-05-01

    Cleaning tasks may imply exposure to chemical agents with potential harmful effects to the respiratory system, and increased risk of asthma and respiratory symptoms among professional cleaners and in persons cleaning at home has been reported. Long-term consequences of cleaning agents on respiratory health are, however, not well described. This study aimed to investigate long-term effects of occupational cleaning and cleaning at home on lung function decline and airway obstruction. The European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) investigated a multicenter population-based cohort at three time points over 20 years. A total of 6,235 participants with at least one lung function measurement from 22 study centers, who in ECRHS II responded to questionnaire modules concerning cleaning activities between ECRHS I and ECRHS II, were included. The data were analyzed with mixed linear models adjusting for potential confounders. As compared with women not engaged in cleaning (ΔFEV 1  = -18.5 ml/yr), FEV 1 declined more rapidly in women responsible for cleaning at home (-22.1; P = 0.01) and occupational cleaners (-22.4; P = 0.03). The same was found for decline in FVC (ΔFVC = -8.8 ml/yr; -13.1, P = 0.02; and -15.9, P = 0.002; respectively). Both cleaning sprays and other cleaning agents were associated with accelerated FEV 1 decline (-22.0, P = 0.04; and -22.9, P = 0.004; respectively). Cleaning was not significantly associated with lung function decline in men or with FEV 1 /FVC decline or airway obstruction. Women cleaning at home or working as occupational cleaners had accelerated decline in lung function, suggesting that exposures related to cleaning activities may constitute a risk to long-term respiratory health.

  3. Prospect-EPIC Utrecht: study design and characteristics of the cohort population. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boker, L K; van Noord, P A; van der Schouw, Y T; Koot, N V; Bueno de Mesquita, H B; Riboli, E; Grobbee, D E; Peeters, P H

    2001-01-01

    The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which has been established in order to investigate the relations between nutrition and cancer, was initiated in 1990 and involves 10 European countries with heterogeneous dietary patterns and differing cancer incidence rates. This manuscript presents the design, recruitment and baseline characteristics of the Prospect-EPIC cohort co-ordinated in Utrecht, The Netherlands. The cohort is based on volunteers recruited among women participating in a regional breast cancer screening program. It comprises of 17,357 subjects aged 50-69 years at enrolment from Utrecht and vicinity, who have consented to participate in the study and its follow-up. Each participant filled out a general questionnaire and a food frequency questionnaire. Participants were also physically examined and have donated a blood sample. Participation rate was 34.5%. Blood samples were donated by most participants (97.5%) and detailed informed consents were obtained from 87.4% of participants. Mean age at enrolment was 57 years. Anthropometric, lifestyle and morbidity characteristics of the cohort population did not differ largely from those of similar study populations in The Netherlands. Based on the Prospect-EPIC population, we intend to conduct prospective total cohort, nested case-control or case-cohort studies, in order to investigate relations between consumption of certain food groups or nutrients and chronic diseases, including hormone dependant cancers such as breast, colon, endometrial and ovary cancers.

  4. Non-thermal electron populations in microwave heated plasmas investigated with X-ray detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belapure, Jaydeep Sanjay

    2013-04-15

    An investigation of the generation and dynamics of superthermal electrons in fusion plasma is carried out. A SDD+CsI(Tl) based X-ray diagnostic is constructed, characterized and installed at ASDEX Upgrade. In various plasma heating power and densities, the fraction and the energy distribution of the superthermal electrons is obtained by a bi-Maxwellian model and compared with Fokker-Planck simulations.

  5. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, K.B.; Musters, C.J.M.; Verkuil, Y.I.; Kentie, R.; Piersma, T.; De Snoo, G.; Verkuil, Y.I.

    2011-01-01

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  6. The decline of North American freshwater fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Jelks, Howard L.; Burkhead, Noel M.

    2009-01-01

    North America has a broad array of freshwater ecosystems because of the continent's complex geography and geological history. Within a multitude of habitats—that include streams, large rivers, natural lakes, springs, and wetlands—rich assemblages of fishes reside, representing diverse taxonomic groups with unique ecological requirements. They face an unprecedented conservation crisis.1 In the last few decades, the proportion of inland fishes of North America, which are considered imperiled or extinct, increased from 20 to 40%.2 Although extinctions have occurred, many species and populations are declining in range size and abundance. The fish biota of the continent as a whole remains diverse; however, we can take action to stem any further declines.

  7. Cognitive decline affects diabetic women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perzyński Adam

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: DM provokes peripheral complications and changes in central nervous system. Central changes in the course of diabetes mellitus (DM include changes in brain tissue structure, electrophysiological abnormalities but also disturbances in neurotransmission leading to cognitive decline.

  8. Bereavement and behavioral changes as risk factors for cognitive decline in adults with Down syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fonseca LM

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Luciana Mascarenhas Fonseca,1 Melaine Cristina de Oliveira,2 Laura Maria de Figueiredo Ferreira Guilhoto,3,4 Esper Abrao Cavalheiro,3,4 Cássio MC Bottino1 1Old Age Research Group, Department of Psychiatry, 2Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, 3Association of Parents and Friends of People with Intellectual Disability of São Paulo, 4Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil Background: Cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s disease often affect older adults with Down syndrome (DS much earlier than those in the general population. There is also growing evidence of the effects of negative life events on the mental health and behavior of individuals with intellectual disability. However, to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating objective cognitive decline following bereavement in aging individuals with DS.Objective: The objective of this study was to determine whether cognitive decline correlates with bereavement following the recent loss of a caregiver or with behavioral changes in a sample of adult individuals with DS who do not meet the criteria for dementia or depression, using the longitudinal assessment of the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG, together with the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE.Methods: We evaluated 18 subjects at baseline and over a follow-up period of 14–22 months, attempting to determine whether cognitive decline correlates with bereavement following the recent loss of the main caregiver or with behavioral changes (as assessed with the Neuropsychiatric Inventory.Results: The mean rate of change in CAMCOG was -1.83 (standard deviation 4.51. Behavioral changes had a significant direct influence on cognitive decline. When bereavement was accompanied by behavioral changes, the probability of cognitive decline was 87% (odds ratio 3.82. Conclusion: The occurrence of behavioral changes attributed to bereavement following the loss of

  9. Investigating population differentiation in a major African agricultural pest: evidence from geometric morphometrics and connectivity suggests high invasion potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsten, M; Addison, P; Jansen van Vuuren, B; Terblanche, J S

    2016-07-01

    The distribution, spatial pattern and population dynamics of a species can be influenced by differences in the environment across its range. Spatial variation in climatic conditions can cause local populations to undergo disruptive selection and ultimately result in local adaptation. However, local adaptation can be constrained by gene flow and may favour resident individuals over migrants-both are factors critical to the assessment of invasion potential. The Natal fruit fly (Ceratitis rosa) is a major agricultural pest in Africa with a history of island invasions, although its range is largely restricted to south east Africa. Across Africa, C. rosa is genetically structured into two clusters (R1 and R2), with these clusters occurring sympatrically in the north of South Africa. The spatial distribution of these genotypic clusters remains unexamined despite their importance for understanding the pest's invasion potential. Here, C. rosa, sampled from 22 South African locations, were genotyped at 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci and assessed morphologically using geometric morphometric wing shape analyses to investigate patterns of population structure and determine connectedness of pest-occupied sites. Our results show little to no intraspecific (population) differentiation, high population connectivity, high effective population sizes and only one morphological type (R2) within South Africa. The absence of the R1 morphotype at sites where it was previously found may be a consequence of differences in thermal niches of the two morphotypes. Overall, our results suggest high invasion potential of this species, that area-wide pest management should be undertaken on a country-wide scale, and that border control is critical to preventing further invasions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Investigating Endothelial Activation and Oxidative Stress in relation to Glycaemic Control in a Multiethnic Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, E. M.; Webb, D. R.; Morris, D. H.; Khunti, K.; Talbot, D. S. C.; Sattar, N.; Davies, M. J.

    2012-01-01

    Aim. An exploration of ethnic differences in measures of oxidative stress and endothelial activation in relation to known cardiovascular risk factors within South Asians (SA) and White Europeans (WE) residing in the UK. Methods. 202 participants within a UK multiethnic population provided biomedical and anthropometric data. Human urinary 2,3-dinor-8-iso-prostaglandin-F1α and plasma ICAM-1 were quantified as measures of oxidative stress and endothelial activation, respectively. Results. 2,3-Dinor-8-iso-prostaglandin-F1α levels were significantly higher in the SA group compared to WE group (10.36 (95% CI: 9.09, 11.79) versus 8.46 (7.71, 9.29), P = 0.021) after adjustment for age, gender, smoking status, body weight, HbA1c, and medication. Oxidative stress was positively associated with HbA1c (β = 1.08, 95% CI:1.02, 1.14, P = 0.009), fasting (β = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.10, P = 0.002), and 2 hr glucose (β = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04, P = 0.052). In each adjusted model, SA continued to have elevated levels of oxidative stress compared to WE. ICAM-1 levels were significantly higher in the composite IGR group compared to the normoglycaemic group (P < 0.001). No ethnic differences in ICAM-1 were observed. Conclusion. These results suggest that SA are more susceptible to the detrimental effects of hyperglycaemia-induced oxidative stress at lower blood glucose thresholds than WE. Further research into the potential mechanisms involved is warranted. PMID:23304116

  11. Investigating Endothelial Activation and Oxidative Stress in relation to Glycaemic Control in a Multiethnic Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Brady

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. An exploration of ethnic differences in measures of oxidative stress and endothelial activation in relation to known cardiovascular risk factors within South Asians (SA and White Europeans (WE residing in the UK. Methods. 202 participants within a UK multiethnic population provided biomedical and anthropometric data. Human urinary 2,3-dinor-8-iso-prostaglandin-F1α and plasma ICAM-1 were quantified as measures of oxidative stress and endothelial activation, respectively. Results. 2,3-Dinor-8-iso-prostaglandin-F1α levels were significantly higher in the SA group compared to WE group (10.36 (95% CI: 9.09, 11.79 versus 8.46 (7.71, 9.29, P=0.021 after adjustment for age, gender, smoking status, body weight, HbA1c, and medication. Oxidative stress was positively associated with HbA1c (β=1.08, 95% CI:1.02, 1.14, P=0.009, fasting (β=1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.10, P=0.002, and 2 hr glucose (β=1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04, P=0.052. In each adjusted model, SA continued to have elevated levels of oxidative stress compared to WE. ICAM-1 levels were significantly higher in the composite IGR group compared to the normoglycaemic group (P<0.001. No ethnic differences in ICAM-1 were observed. Conclusion. These results suggest that SA are more susceptible to the detrimental effects of hyperglycaemia-induced oxidative stress at lower blood glucose thresholds than WE. Further research into the potential mechanisms involved is warranted.

  12. Vulnerable Populations, Social Investigations, and Epistemic Justice in Early Victorian Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oz Frankel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Conducted by royal commissions, select committees and the newly established inspectorates, early Victorian social investigations elaborated formats and procedures of public inquiry that left an enduring impact on modern, liberal public spheres in the English speaking world and beyond. This article revisits a few features of 19th Century official investigations, highlighting the rather diverse and contradictory effects these fact-seeking ventures had on British democratic culture. I argue that even as government inquiries confirmed and strengthen social gradations as well as hierarchies of knowledge and expertise, they nevertheless allowed the British lower classes to participate in official discourse as knowers, not just sufferers, and opened new possibilities for dissent and contestations. I highlight the manner in which the investigation itself rather than any consequent legislation or policy touched upon the administration of justice either by emulating court procedures or in terms of its epistemic labor.Las investigaciones sociales de principio de la época victoriana dirigidas por comisiones reales, comités selectos y las inspecciones que se estaban creando entonces, elaboraron formatos y procedimientos de investigación pública que dejaron un impacto duradero en las esferas públicas modernas y liberales tanto en el mundo angloparlante como fuera de él. Este artículo revisa algunas características de las investigaciones oficiales del siglo XIX, resaltando los efectos diversos y contradictorios que estas iniciativas de búsqueda de hechos tuvieron en la cultura democrática británica. Se defiende que, a pesar de que las investigaciones gubernamentales confirmaron y reforzaron las escalas sociales y las jerarquías de conocimiento y experiencia, permitieron que las clases bajas británicas participaran en el discurso oficial como conocedores y no sólo víctimas, y abrieron nuevas posibilidades de disensión y lucha. Se destaca la

  13. Investigation of the question of a danger to the population by fallout from the stratospheric depot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Sladkovic, R.; Poetzl, K.

    1975-01-01

    The self-developed evaluation programme modified for the present tasks - a programme to set up continuous isentropical trajectory analyses and to investigate the tropopause fine structure for the determination of the climatology of the intrusion of stratospheric (contaminated) air into the troposphere and its transport to a point of the earth's surface in the temperate latitudes, is fully efficient. It does not merely determine trivial cases with direct sinking from the lower stratoshere to the measuring station (pure adiabatic case), but cases of non-adiabatic mixture processes can also be described by using several trajectories corresponding with one another. The method of cross-section and longitudinal section analyses gives the data necessary for the description of the intrusion of stratospheric air through the tropopause with sufficient accuracy. Based on the knowledge obtained sofar, a scheme to predict stratospheric intrusions has been set up and experimentally applied. The very first results are already promising. (orig.) [de

  14. Assessment of ulnar variance: a radiological investigation in a Dutch population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuurman, A.H. [Dept. of Plastic, Reconstructive and Hand Surgery, University Medical Centre, Utrecht (Netherlands); Dept. of Plastic Surgery, University Medical Centre, Utrecht (Netherlands); Maas, M.; Dijkstra, P.F. [Dept. of Radiology, Univ. of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kauer, J.M.G. [Dept. of Anatomy and Embryology, Univ. of Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2001-11-01

    Objective: A radiological study was performed to evaluate ulnar variance in 68 Dutch patients using an electronic digitizer compared with Palmer's concentric circle method. Using the digitizer method only, the effect of different wrist positions and grip on ulnar variance was then investigated. Finally the distribution of ulnar variance in the selected patients was investigated also using the digitizer method. Design and patients: All radiographs were performed with the wrist in a standard zero-rotation position (posteroanterior) and in supination (anteroposterior). Palmer's concentric circle method and an electronic digitizer connected to a personal computer were used to measure ulnar variance. The digitizer consists of a Plexiglas plate with an electronically activated grid beneath it. A radiograph is placed on the plate and a cursor activates a point on the grid. Three plots are marked on the radius and one plot on the most distal part of the ulnar head. The digitizer then determines the difference between a radius passing through the radius plots and the ulnar plot. Results and conclusions: Using the concentric circle method we found an ulna plus predominance, but an ulna minus predominance when using the digitizer method. Overall the ulnar variance distribution for Palmer's method was 41.9% ulna plus, 25.7% neutral and 32.4% ulna minus variance, and for the digitizer method was 40.4% ulna plus, 1.5% neutral and 58.1% ulna minus. The percentage ulnar variance greater than 1 mm on standard radiographs increased from 23% to 58% using the digitizer, with maximum grip, clearly demonstrating the (dynamic) effect of grip on ulnar variance. This almost threefold increase was found to be a significant difference. Significant differences were found between ulnar variance when different wrist positions were compared. (orig.)

  15. Rate of pulmonary function decline in South African children with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) objectively measure the extent and progression of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The rate of lung function decline in developing countries has not previously been studied. Aim. To investigate the average annual rates of pulmonary function decline in South African children ...

  16. Did the Decline in Social Connections Depress Americans' Happiness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefano; Bilancini, Ennio; Pugno, Maurizio

    2013-01-01

    During the last 30 years US citizens experienced, on average, a decline in reported happiness, social connections, and confidence in institutions. We show that a remarkable portion of the decrease in happiness is predicted by the decline in social connections and confidence in institutions. We carry out our investigation in three steps. First, we…

  17. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-10

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  18. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

    2016-01-01

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  19. Unmet need and fertility decline: a comparative perspective on prospects in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casterline, John B; El-Zeini, Laila O

    2014-06-01

    This study assesses how changes in unmet need for family planning have contributed to contemporary fertility declines, and the implications of this historical record for further fertility decline, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We examine joint trends at the national level in fertility, unintended fertility, and unmet need. We bring unintended fertility into the analysis because the underlying rationale for reducing unmet need is to avert unintended pregnancies and births. The association over time between unmet need and fertility is investigated using survey data from 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean from the mid-1970s to the present. The empirical analysis finds that reduction in unmet need, especially unmet need for limiting, is strongly associated with fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia and North Africa. Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is weakly associated with trends in unmet need (and satisfaction of demand). We propose that the stark regional difference is due to measurement problems and to the fundamentally different character of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, itself reflective of basic differences in pretransition reproductive regimes. © 2013 The Population Council, Inc.

  20. An Investigation of Blazars without Redshifts: Not a Missing Population at High Redshift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Peiyuan; Urry, C. Megan [Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Physics Department, New Haven, CT 06520 (United States)

    2017-06-01

    We investigate a sample of 622 blazars with measured fluxes at 12 wavebands across the radio-to-gamma-ray spectrum but without spectroscopic or photometric redshifts. This sample includes hundreds of sources with newly analyzed X-ray spectra reported here. From the synchrotron peak frequencies, estimated by fitting the broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs), we find that the fraction of high-synchrotron-peaked blazars in these 622 sources is roughly the same as in larger samples of blazars that do have redshifts. We characterize the no-redshift blazars using their infrared colors, which lie in the distinct locus called the WISE blazar strip, then estimate their redshifts using a KNN regression based on the redshifts of the closest blazars in the WISE color–color plot. Finally, using randomly drawn values from plausible redshift distributions, we simulate the SEDs of these blazars and compare them to known blazar SEDs. Based on all these considerations, we conclude that blazars without redshift estimates are unlikely to be high-luminosity, high-synchrotron-peaked objects, which had been suggested in order to explain the “blazar sequence”—an observed trend of SED shape with luminosity—as a selection effect. Instead, the observed properties of no-redshift blazars are compatible with a causal connection between jet power and electron cooling, i.e., a true blazar sequence.

  1. The prevalence of violence investigated in a pregnant population in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenson, K; Heimer, G; Lundh, C; Nordström, M L; Saarinen, H; Wenker, A

    2001-12-01

    All women registered for antenatal care within a Swedish municipality during a 6-month period were assessed regarding acts of violence. The Abuse Assessment Screen was used on two occasions during pregnancy, and once between 4 and 20 weeks after delivery. The efficacy of repeated interviews was investigated, and characteristics of abused and non-abused women were compared. The participation rate was 93% (1038 women). Physical abuse by a close acquaintance or relative during or shortly after pregnancy was reported by 1.3%, and by 2.8% when the year preceding pregnancy was included. The lifetime prevalence of emotional, physical or sexual abuse was 19.4%. Repeated questioning increased the detection of abuse. Women abused during pregnancy reported more preceding ill-health and more elective abortions than non-abused women. Intervention against sexual violence has been on the political agenda in Sweden for several decades. Even so, physical abuse is a risk factor comparable in frequency to obstetric complications such as gestational diabetes and pre-eclampsia. Routines need to be established to make questioning about violence an integral part of the standardized screening for risk factors during pregnancy.

  2. Cytogenetic investigation in a population living in the high background radiation area in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deqing, C.

    1980-04-01

    On the basis of the previous investigation, 24,000 metaphases of the lymphocytes of 120 inhabitants from Tongyou region, where the highest individual cummulative exposure per year of 372 mR in weighted average was recorded in the high background radiation area selected, have been analysed with the method recommended by WHO in 1973, in order to determine the extent of human chromosome aberrations induced by the high background radiation of various levels. The results show that the difference between the total number of chromosome breakages in the individuals living in the high background radiation area and that in the control area (0.32x10/sup -2/ and 0.27x10/sup -2/ per cell respectively) is not significant whereas that between the numbers of two-hite aberrations (mainly dicentric) in the same two groups (0.042x10/sup -2/ and 0.0048x10/sup -2/ per cell) is significant (X/sup 2/ = 6.1475, P<0.05). In addition, the normal value of the chromosome aberrations of human lymphocytes was analyzed.

  3. Citizen Science Program Shows Urban Areas Have Lower Occurrence of Frog Species, but Not Accelerated Declines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin J Westgate

    Full Text Available Understanding the influence of landscape change on animal populations is critical to inform biodiversity conservation efforts. A particularly important goal is to understand how urban density affects the persistence of animal populations through time, and how these impacts can be mediated by habitat provision; but data on this question are limited for some taxa. Here, we use data from a citizen science monitoring program to investigate the effect of urbanization on patterns of frog species richness and occurrence over 13 years. Sites surrounded by a high proportion of bare ground (a proxy for urbanization had consistently lower frog occurrence, but we found no evidence that declines were restricted to urban areas. Instead, several frog species showed declines in rural wetlands with low-quality habitat. Our analysis shows that urban wetlands had low but stable species richness; but also that population trajectories are strongly influenced by vegetation provision in both the riparian zone and the wider landscape. Future increases in the extent of urban environments in our study area are likely to negatively impact populations of several frog species. However, existing urban areas are unlikely to lose further frog species in the medium term. We recommend that landscape planning and management focus on the conservation and restoration of rural wetlands to arrest current declines, and the revegetation of urban wetlands to facilitate the re-expansion of urban-sensitive species.

  4. Rare Copy Number Variants in a Population Based Investigation of Hypoplastic Right Heart Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimopoulos, Aggeliki; Sicko, Robert J.; Kay, Denise M.; Rigler, Shannon L.; Druschel, Charlotte M.; Caggana, Michele; Browne, Marilyn L.; Fan, Ruzong; Romitti, Paul A.; Brody, Lawrence C.; Mills, James L.

    2016-01-01

    Background Hypoplastic right heart syndrome (HRHS) is a rare congenital defect characterized by underdevelopment of the right heart structures commonly accompanied by an atrial septal defect. Familial HRHS reports suggest genetic factor involvement. We examined the role of copy number variants (CNVs) in HRHS. Methods We genotyped 32 HRHS cases identified from all New York State live births (1998–2005) using Illumina HumanOmni2.5 microarrays. CNVs were called with PennCNV and prioritized if they were ≥20Kb, contained ≥10 SNPs and had minimal overlap with CNVs from in-house controls, the Database of Genomic Variants, HapMap3 and CHOP database. Results We identified 28 CNVs in 17 cases; several encompassed genes important for right heart development. One case had a 2p16–2p23 duplication spanning LBH, a limb and heart development transcription factor. Lbh mis-expression results in right ventricular hypoplasia and pulmonary valve defects. This duplication also encompassed SOS1, a factor associated with pulmonary valve stenosis in Noonan syndrome. Sos1−/− mice display thin and poorly trabeculated ventricles. In another case, we identified a 1.5Mb deletion associated with Williams Beuren syndrome, a disorder that includes valvular malformations. A third case had a 24Kb deletion upstream of the TGFβ ligand ITGB8. Embryos genetically null for Itgb8, and its intracellular interactant Band 4.1B, display lethal cardiac phenotypes. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study of CNVs in HRHS. We identified several rare CNVs that overlap genes related to right ventricular wall and valve development, suggesting that genetics plays a role in HRHS and providing clues for further investigation. PMID:28009100

  5. An ancient Mediterranean melting pot: investigating the uniparental genetic structure and population history of sicily and southern Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Sarno

    Full Text Available Due to their strategic geographic location between three different continents, Sicily and Southern Italy have long represented a major Mediterranean crossroad where different peoples and cultures came together over time. However, its multi-layered history of migration pathways and cultural exchanges, has made the reconstruction of its genetic history and population structure extremely controversial and widely debated. To address this debate, we surveyed the genetic variability of 326 accurately selected individuals from 8 different provinces of Sicily and Southern Italy, through a comprehensive evaluation of both Y-chromosome and mtDNA genomes. The main goal was to investigate the structuring of maternal and paternal genetic pools within Sicily and Southern Italy, and to examine their degrees of interaction with other Mediterranean populations. Our findings show high levels of within-population variability, coupled with the lack of significant genetic sub-structures both within Sicily, as well as between Sicily and Southern Italy. When Sicilian and Southern Italian populations were contextualized within the Euro-Mediterranean genetic space, we observed different historical dynamics for maternal and paternal inheritances. Y-chromosome results highlight a significant genetic differentiation between the North-Western and South-Eastern part of the Mediterranean, the Italian Peninsula occupying an intermediate position therein. In particular, Sicily and Southern Italy reveal a shared paternal genetic background with the Balkan Peninsula and the time estimates of main Y-chromosome lineages signal paternal genetic traces of Neolithic and post-Neolithic migration events. On the contrary, despite showing some correspondence with its paternal counterpart, mtDNA reveals a substantially homogeneous genetic landscape, which may reflect older population events or different demographic dynamics between males and females. Overall, both uniparental genetic

  6. [Acute schizophrenia concept and definition: investigation of a French psychiatrist population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baylé, F J; Misdrahi, D; Llorca, P M; Lançon, C; Olivier, V; Quintin, P; Azorin, J M

    2005-01-01

    For schizophrenic disorders, the clinical conception of "acute state" is widely used in clinical settings to assess the effectiveness of therapeutic programs as well as epidemiological studies. Schizophrenic-specific symptomatology modification, need for hospitalization, significant change in care, disturbances in social behavior or suicide attempts were all used to define acute schizophrenic state. The decision to hospitalize is frequently used to define acute state but refers to multiple factors such as mood disorder, suicide attempts, drug abuse or social and environmental problems. Indeed, several and distinct definitions in a criteria basis form are available but no one has reached consensus. Because recognition of acute schizophrenic state remains based on the subjective clinician's advice, epidemiological and therapeutic studies fail in validity and reliability. The aim of the study was to evaluate how a population of French psychiatrists define criteria and therapeutic targets of acute schizophrenic state in their clinical practice. Psychiatrists filled out a self administered interview. At the time the interview was given, clinicians were notified that they were participating in a clinical consensus survey about schizophrenia. Six major indicators for acute state definition based on the literature data were proposed: general schizophrenic symptomatology modification (depression, anxiety, agitation, impulsivity/aggressiveness), specific schizophrenic symptomatology modification (positive symptoms, negative symptoms, disorganization), need for hospitalization, significant change in care, disturbance in social behavior and lastly, suicidal behavior. Minimal duration (1.2 or 4 weeks) of general and specific schizophrenic symptomatology modification required to define acute state were evaluated. The booklet included the 30 PANSS symptoms listed with their definitions. Among this symptom list, clinicians were instructed to select the ten criteria which they

  7. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  8. Association of pulse wave velocity and pulse pressure with decline in kidney function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Chang Seong; Kim, Ha Yeon; Kang, Yong Un; Choi, Joon Seok; Bae, Eun Hui; Ma, Seong Kwon; Kim, Soo Wan

    2014-05-01

    The association between arterial stiffness and decline in kidney function in patients with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not well established. This study investigated whether pulse wave velocity (PWV) and pulse pressure (PP) are independently associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and rapid decline in kidney function in early CKD. Carotid femoral PWV (cfPWV), brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV), and PP were measured in a cohort of 913 patients (mean age, 63±10 years; baseline estimated GFR, 84±18 mL/min/1.73 m(2) ). Estimated GFR was measured at baseline and at follow-up. The renal outcome examined was rapid decline in kidney function (estimated GFR loss, >3 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year). The median follow-up duration was 3.2 years. Multivariable adjusted linear regression model indicated that arterial PWV (both cfPWV and baPWV) and PP increased as estimated GFR declined, but neither was associated with kidney function after adjustment for various covariates. Multivariable logistic regression analysis found that cfPWV and baPWV were not associated with rapid decline in kidney function (odds ratio [OR], 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-4.65; OR, 2.51, 95% CI, 0.66-9.46, respectively), but PP was (OR, 1.22, 95% CI, 1.01-1.48; P=.045). Arterial stiffness assessed using cfPWV and baPWV was not correlated with lower estimated GFR and rapid decline in kidney function after adjustment for various confounders. Thus, PP is an independent risk factor for rapid decline in kidney function in populations with relatively preserved kidney function (estimated GFR ≥30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) ). ©2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. With Prudhoe Bay in decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

  10. Circulating MKRN3 Levels Decline During Puberty in Healthy Boys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Alexander S; Hagen, Casper P; Almstrup, Kristian; Juul, Anders

    2016-06-01

    Initiation and progression of puberty requires concerted action of hypothalamic activating and inhibiting factors. Recently, cases of familial central precocious puberty have been linked to loss-of-function mutations of makorin RING-finger protein 3 (MKRN3) indicating a pivotal inhibitory role of the protein on GnRH secretion. To investigate peripubertal circulating MKRN3 levels in healthy boys. Population-based longitudinal study in healthy Danish boys. General community. Healthy boys (n = 60) aged (median [range]) 9.3 (5.8-11.8) years at baseline followed for 6.0 (0.5-7.6) years (2006-2014) with blood sampling every 6 months. None. Serum levels of MKRN3: 623 samples, median (range) 12 (2-14) per boy. MKRN3 levels declined before onset of puberty; the geometric mean (95% confidence interval) 5 years before onset of puberty vs last visit before onset of puberty was 216 (169-272) pg/mL vs 128 (118-139) pg/mL (P puberty progressed. MKRN3 levels were not associated with age at onset of puberty. Declining MKRN3 before pubertal onset support MKRN3 as an inhibitor of GnRH secretion during midchildhood.

  11. Haematological malignancies in childhood in Croatia: Investigating the theories of depleted uranium, chemical plant damage and 'population mixing'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labar, B.; Rudan, I.; Ivankovic, D.; Biloglav, Z.; Mrsic, M.; Strnad, M.; Fucic, A.; Znaor, A.; Bradic, T.; Campbell, H.

    2004-01-01

    Some of potential causes proposed to explain the reported increase of haematological malignancies in childhood during or after the war period in several countries include depleted uranium, chemical pollution and population mixing theory. The aim of this study was to define the population of Croatian children aged 0-14 years who were potentially exposed to each of those risks during the war and to investigate any possible association between the exposure and the incidence of haematological malignancies. The authors analyzed the data reported by the Cancer Registry of Croatia during the pre-war period (1986-1990), war period (1991-1995) and post-war period (1996-1999). In the group of 10 counties potentially exposed to depleted uranium and two counties where chemical war damage occurred, no significant difference in incidence of the studied haematological malignancies was noted in comparison to pre-war period. The incidence of lymphatic leukaemia significantly increased in four counties where population mixing had occurred during the war period, supporting the 'mixing theory'. In those counties, the incidence of Hodgkin's lymphoma decreased during and after the war. In Croatia as a whole, decreases in incidence of myeloid leukaemias during war and non-Hodgkin lymphoma after the war were noted

  12. Identifying landscape factors affecting tiger decline in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Naser Mohsin Hossain

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Sundarbans Forest (∼10,000 km2 represents the only mangrove ecosystem inhabited by tigers Panthera tigris. However, in the Bangladesh portion of the Sundarbans (∼6,000 km2 tigers appear to have declined. The aim of this study was to examine the influence of a range of environmental and landscape variables in possible changes in the relative abundance of tigers in the Bangladesh Sundarbans over a five-year period (2007–2011. In 2007, 2011 tiger relative abundance was assessed using sign surveys. Using regression models we investigated changes in relative abundance versus multiple landscape variables (human disturbance associated with villages and commercial shipping lanes, distance to the international border with India where there is enhanced patrolling, presence of forest guard stations, number of criminal prosecutions and forest protection status. Tiger relative abundance was higher in 2007 and declined by 2011 with changes best explained by the proximity to international boundaries. This result might have been affected by the high levels of security patrols at the India-Bangladesh border along with cross border tiger movement between India and Bangladesh. Neighboring tiger range countries could strengthen cross-border law enforcement, increasing protection of dispersing animals. Particularly alarming was the absence of a positive effect of protected areas relative to those outside the protected area system or forest guard stations, implying a lack of management effectiveness suggesting an urgent need for an improved strategy for managing tigers and their habitats. Keywords: Wildlife poaching, Population declines, Transboundary protection, Joint patrolling, Protected area effectiveness

  13. Investigating the potential of an autodissemination system for managing populations of vine weevil, Otiorhynchus sulcatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) with entomopathogenic fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Tom W; Hough, Gemma; Arbona, Charlotte; Roberts, Harriet; Bennison, Jude; Buxton, John; Prince, Gill; Chandler, Dave

    2018-05-01

    Vine weevil, also known as black vine weevil, (Otiorhynchus sulcatus) is an economically important pest affecting soft fruit and nursery stock in temperate regions. We used laboratory and polytunnel experiments to investigate a novel control system based on autodissemination of spores of an entomopathogenic fungus to populations of adult vine weevils. The fungus was applied as a conidial powder, used on its own or formulated with talc, to a simple plastic refuge for vine weevils. The potential for adult weevils to disseminate the fungus was investigated first in polytunnel experiments using fluorescent powders applied to the refuge in lieu of fungal conidia. In this system, 88% of adult weevils came in contact with the powder within 48 h. When the powder was applied to five adult weevils that were then placed within a population of 35 potential recipients, it was transmitted on average to 75% of the recipient population within 7 days. Three isolates of entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana isolate codes 433.99 and 1749.11 and Metarhizium brunneum isolate code 275.86), selected from a laboratory virulence screen. These three isolates were then investigated for efficacy when applied as conidial powders in artificial refuges placed among populations of adult weevils held in experimental boxes in the laboratory at 20 °C. Under this regime, the fungal isolates caused 70-90% mortality of adult weevils over 28 days. A final polytunnel experiment tested the efficacy of conidial powders of M. brunneum 275.86 placed in artificial refuges to increase vine weevil mortality. Overall weevil mortality was relatively low (26-41%) but was significantly higher in cages in which the conidial powders were placed in refuge traps than in cages with control traps. The lower weevil mortality recorded in the polytunnel experiment compared to the laboratory test was most likely a consequence of the greater amounts of inoculum required to kill adult weevils when conditions

  14. Conflict bear translocation: investigating population genetics and fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park, Jammu and Kashmir, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukesh; Sharma, Lalit Kumar; Charoo, Samina Amin; Sathyakumar, Sambandam

    2015-01-01

    The Asiatic black bear population in Dachigam landscape, Jammu and Kashmir is well recognized as one of the highest density bear populations in India. Increasing incidences of bear-human interactions and the resultant retaliatory killings by locals have become a serious threat to the survivorship of black bears in the Dachigam landscape. The Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu and Kashmir has been translocating bears involved in conflicts, henceforth 'conflict bears' from different sites in Dachigam landscape to Dachigam National Park as a flagship activity to mitigate conflicts. We undertook this study to investigate the population genetics and the fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park. We identified 109 unique genotypes in an area of ca. 650 km2 and observed bear population under panmixia that showed sound genetic variability. Molecular tracking of translocated bears revealed that mostly bears (7 out of 11 bears) returned to their capture sites, possibly due to homing instincts or habituation to the high quality food available in agricultural croplands and orchards, while only four bears remained in Dachigam National Park after translocation. Results indicated that translocation success was most likely to be season dependent as bears translocated during spring and late autumn returned to their capture sites, perhaps due to the scarcity of food inside Dachigam National Park while bears translocated in summer remained in Dachigam National Park due to availability of surplus food resources. Thus, the current management practices of translocating conflict bears, without taking into account spatio-temporal variability of food resources in Dachigam landscape seemed to be ineffective in mitigating conflicts on a long-term basis. However, the study highlighted the importance of molecular tracking of bears to understand their movement patterns and socio-biology in tough terrains like Dachigam landscape.

  15. Conflict bear translocation: investigating population genetics and fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park, Jammu and Kashmir, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukesh

    Full Text Available The Asiatic black bear population in Dachigam landscape, Jammu and Kashmir is well recognized as one of the highest density bear populations in India. Increasing incidences of bear-human interactions and the resultant retaliatory killings by locals have become a serious threat to the survivorship of black bears in the Dachigam landscape. The Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu and Kashmir has been translocating bears involved in conflicts, henceforth 'conflict bears' from different sites in Dachigam landscape to Dachigam National Park as a flagship activity to mitigate conflicts. We undertook this study to investigate the population genetics and the fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park. We identified 109 unique genotypes in an area of ca. 650 km2 and observed bear population under panmixia that showed sound genetic variability. Molecular tracking of translocated bears revealed that mostly bears (7 out of 11 bears returned to their capture sites, possibly due to homing instincts or habituation to the high quality food available in agricultural croplands and orchards, while only four bears remained in Dachigam National Park after translocation. Results indicated that translocation success was most likely to be season dependent as bears translocated during spring and late autumn returned to their capture sites, perhaps due to the scarcity of food inside Dachigam National Park while bears translocated in summer remained in Dachigam National Park due to availability of surplus food resources. Thus, the current management practices of translocating conflict bears, without taking into account spatio-temporal variability of food resources in Dachigam landscape seemed to be ineffective in mitigating conflicts on a long-term basis. However, the study highlighted the importance of molecular tracking of bears to understand their movement patterns and socio-biology in tough terrains like Dachigam landscape.

  16. Investigation of excited states populations density of Hall thruster plasma in three dimensions by laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivoruchko, D. D.; Skrylev, A. V.

    2018-01-01

    The article deals with investigation of the excited states populations distribution of a low-temperature xenon plasma in the thruster with closed electron drift at 300 W operating conditions were investigated by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) over the 350-1100 nm range. Seven xenon ions (Xe II) transitions were analyzed, while for neutral atoms (Xe I) just three transitions were explored, since the majority of Xe I emission falls into the ultraviolet or infrared part of the spectrum and are difficult to measure. The necessary spontaneous emission probabilities (Einstein coefficients) were calculated. Measurements of the excited state distribution were made for points (volume of about 12 mm3) all over the plane perpendicular to thruster axis in four positions on it (5, 10, 50 and 100 mm). Measured LIF signal intensity have differences for each location of researched point (due to anisotropy of thruster plume), however the structure of states populations distribution persisted at plume and is violated at the thruster exit plane and cathode area. Measured distributions show that for describing plasma of Hall thruster one needs to use a multilevel kinetic model, classic model can be used just for far plume region or for specific electron transitions.

  17. Investigation and functional characterization of rare genetic variants in the adipose triglyceride lipase in a large healthy working population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Coassin

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies demonstrated a strong influence of rare genetic variants on several lipid-related traits. However, their impact on free fatty acid (FFA plasma concentrations, as well as the role of rare variants in a general population, has not yet been thoroughly addressed. The adipose triglyceride lipase (ATGL is encoded by the PNPLA2 gene and catalyzes the rate-limiting step of lipolysis. It represents a prominent candidate gene affecting FFA concentrations. We therefore screened the full genomic region of ATGL for mutations in 1,473 randomly selected individuals from the SAPHIR (Salzburg Atherosclerosis Prevention program in subjects at High Individual Risk Study using a combined Ecotilling and sequencing approach and functionally investigated all detected protein variants by in-vitro studies. We observed 55 novel mostly rare genetic variants in this general population sample. Biochemical evaluation of all non-synonymous variants demonstrated the presence of several mutated but mostly still functional ATGL alleles with largely varying residual lipolytic activity. About one-quarter (3 out of 13 of the investigated variants presented a marked decrease or total loss of catalytic function. Genetic association studies using both continuous and dichotomous approaches showed a shift towards lower plasma FFA concentrations for rare variant carriers and an accumulation of variants in the lower 10%-quantile of the FFA distribution. However, the generally rather small effects suggest either only a secondary role of rare ATGL variants on the FFA levels in the SAPHIR population or a recessive action of ATGL variants. In contrast to these rather small effects, we describe here also the first patient with "neutral lipid storage disease with myopathy" (NLSDM with a point mutation in the catalytic dyad, but otherwise intact protein.

  18. Investigation of population structure in Gulf of Mexico Seepiophila jonesi (Polychaeta, Siboglinidae using cross-amplified microsatellite loci

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunya Huang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Vestimentiferan tubeworms are some of the most recognizable fauna found at deep-sea cold seeps, isolated environments where hydrocarbon rich fluids fuel biological communities. Several studies have investigated tubeworm population structure; however, much is still unknown about larval dispersal patterns at Gulf of Mexico (GoM seeps. As such, researchers have applied microsatellite markers as a measure for documenting the transport of vestimentiferan individuals. In the present study, we investigate the utility of microsatellites to be cross-amplified within the escarpiid clade of seep vestimentiferans, by determining if loci originally developed for Escarpia spp. could be amplified in the GoM seep tubeworm, Seepiophila jonesi. Additionally, we determine if cross-amplified loci can reliably uncover the same signatures of high gene flow seen in a previous investigation of S. jonesi. Methods Seventy-seven S. jonesi individuals were collected from eight seep sites across the upper Louisiana slope (<1,000 m in the GoM. Forty-eight microsatellite loci that were originally developed for Escarpia laminata (18 loci and Escarpia southwardae (30 loci were tested to determine if they were homologous and polymorphic in S. jonesi. Loci found to be both polymorphic and of high quality were used to test for significant population structuring in S. jonesi. Results Microsatellite pre-screening identified 13 (27% of the Escarpia loci were homologous and polymorphic in S. jonesi, revealing that microsatellites can be amplified within the escarpiid clade of vestimentiferans. Our findings uncovered low levels of heterozygosity and a lack of genetic differentiation amongst S. jonesi from various sites and regions, in line with previous investigations that employed species-specific polymorphic loci on S. jonesi individuals retrieved from both the same and different seep sites. The lack of genetic structure identified from these populations supports the

  19. Short-term variability and nocturnal decline in ambulatory blood pressure in normotension, white-coat hypertension, masked hypertension and sustained hypertension: a population-based study of older individuals in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gijón-Conde, Teresa; Graciani, Auxiliadora; López-García, Esther; Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; García-Esquinas, Esther; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Banegas, José R

    2017-06-01

    Blood pressure (BP) variability and nocturnal decline in blood pressure are associated with cardiovascular outcomes. However, little is known about whether these indexes are associated with white-coat and masked hypertension. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1047 community-dwelling individuals aged ⩾60 years in Spain in 2012. Three observer-measured home BPs and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) were performed under standardized conditions. BP variability was defined as BP s.d. and coefficient of variation. Differences in BP variability and nocturnal BP decrease between groups were adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical covariates using generalized linear models. Of the cohort, 21.7% had white-coat hypertension, 7.0% had masked hypertension, 21.4% had sustained hypertension, and 49.9% were normotensive. Twenty-four hour, daytime and night-time systolic BP s.d. and coefficients of variation were significantly higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension than those with normotension (Pcoat hypertension than in those with normotension (Pcoat hypertension group and lowest in the masked hypertension group in all patients and untreated patients (Pcoat hypertension, 78.1% of subjects with masked hypertension, and 72.2% of subjects with sustained hypertension (Pcoat hypertension and blunted nocturnal BP decrease was observed more frequently in subjects with masked hypertension. These findings may help to explain the reports of increased cardiovascular risk in patients with white-coat hypertension and poor prognosis in those with masked hypertension, highlighting the importance of ABPM.

  20. Strong families and declining fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilevych, Yuliya

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the role of family and social relationships in individuals’ reproductive careers during the fertility decline in Soviet Ukraine from around 1950 to 1975. These three decades after the Second World War signified the end of the First Demographic Transition in Ukraine

  1. French Wines on the Decline?:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Bodo

    2004-01-01

    French wines, differentiated by geographic origin, served for many decades as a basis for the French success in the British wine market. However in the early 1990s, market share began to decline. This article explores the values that market participants placed on labelling information on French...

  2. 我国驯鹿 Rangifer tarandus 的种群分布、数量及致危原因%Current Distribution,Population Trends and Causes of Decline of Reindeer in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曾治; 孟凡露; 王朋; 孟秀祥

    2016-01-01

    2012年7月至2013年8月间,在大兴安岭对我国驯鹿 Rangi f er tarandus开展了野外调查,以确定其分布及种群数量波动,并分析其致危原因.结果表明:我国驯鹿仅分布于大兴安岭西北麓的内蒙古根河地区(E 121°11′-122°25′,N 50°42′-51°50′),其分布区与我国鄂温克族聚居区完全重叠.我国现存驯鹿种群718头,分布于12个彼此隔离的种群,各驯鹿种群数量分布极不均匀,每个种群由9~240头驯鹿组成,大部分种群呈典型小种群状态,其平均种群大小仅为59.83头(±18.42, n=12);驯鹿分布生境的海拔区间为700~926 m ,平均海拔为813.67 m (±21.72 m , n=12);小种群及相关的近交衰退、生境丧失及适宜性下降、管理政策不合理、高强度的生态旅游和盗猎及天敌捕杀是制约我国驯鹿种群发展的主要因素.%The reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) is an endangered species distributed in the sub‐arctic region in the northeastern part of China .To determine the current status of the population and the distribution pat‐terns of reindeer ,this study was conducted in the Great Xing’Anling of China during July 2012 to August 2013 .The results showed that the reindeer in China only occurs in Genhe area of Inner Mongolia (E 121° 11′-122°25′,N 50°42′-51°50′) ,where has been the dwelling region of Ewenki people .There were 718 reindeer in 12 populations in 2013 with the population range from 9 to 240 and the average population size of 59.83 ( ± 18.42 ,n=12) ,which indicated that the most reindeer populations in China were small popula‐tions .The preferred habitats of reindeer locates from 700 to 926 m with the average of 813.67 m (± 21.72 , n=12) .Small populations and the related inbreeding ,habitat loss and degradation ,management policy ,in‐tensive tourism and poaching and the predation have been the main factors influencing the population increase

  3. Modeling the decline of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, 1989-1998: the importance of survival vs. recruitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Arthur

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The Porcupine caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd increased from approximately 100 000 animals during the 1970s to 178 000 in 1989, then declined to 129 000 by 1998. Our objective was to model the dynamics of this herd and investigate the potential that lower calf recruitment, as was observed during 1991-1993, produced the observed population changes. A deterministic model was prepared using estimates of birth and survival rates that reproduced the pattern of population growth from 1971-1989. Then, parameters were changed to simulate effects of lower calf recruitment and adult survival. Reducing recruitment for 3 years caused an immediate reduction in population size, but the population began to recover in 5-6 years. Even a dramatic temporary reduction in recruitment did not explain the continuing decline after 1995. In contrast, a slight but persistent reduction in adult survival caused a decline that closely followed the observed pattern. This suggests that survival of adults, and perhaps calves, has declined since the late 1980s.

  4. The cultural evolution of fertility decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  5. Population genetical investigation of the level of mutagenesis and teratological events frequency in ecologically different regions of Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashaganova, Zh.A.; Zhapbasov, R.; Kadyrova, N.Zh.; Karimbaeva, K.S.; Mamyrbaeva, A.N.; Altaeva, N.Z.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Kazakhstan territory is unique including regions with radioactive pollution of Semipalatinsk nuclear test territory and storage of radioactive waste of uranium mines and metallurgy enterprises, and regions of drying Aral sea. These technogenic factors may cause some types of chromosome aberrations and developmental anomalies in mammals. The level of mutagenesis was estimated basing on chromosome aberrations and genomic mutation frequencies in bone marrow cells of natural rodents populations (Allactaga major Kern, Allactaga saltator Eversman, Cytellus eritrogenus Br.) and domestic animals (sheep, cattle, horse), which inhabit these regions. Sheep populations which are bred in the regions with different climatic conditions were used for teratological investigations. Different generations are met in the populations of mice family rodents caught in the nature. So studying the animals of different ages separately we can estimate the frequency of mutations in the animals of different age inhabiting the same radiation polluted regions. The frequency of chromosome abe rations in mice family rodents from such territories was twice as high as from the clear territories. In some animals chromosome aberration types characteristic for radiation mutagenesis (dicentrics, double acentric fragments) were found. High level of cytogenetical instability in somatic cells of agricultural animals which were bred on the pastures within former nuclear test territories for several generations may be caused by chronic radiation in low doses. The analysis of the spectrum of recorder chromosome aberrations in somatic cells and their dynamics in different animal species inhabiting for several generations these territories being chronically irradiated, allows us to investigate the direction of genetical evolution of mammals genofond structure induced by ecological factors. Comparative analysis of the frequencies of spontaneous abortuses, deadborn and newborn animals with innate

  6. A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

    1990-12-01

    Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

  7. Using Africa's protected area network to estimate the global population of a threatened and declining species: a case study of the Critically Endangered White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murn, Campbell; Mundy, Peter; Virani, Munir Z; Borello, Wendy D; Holloway, Graham J; Thiollay, Jean-Marc

    2016-02-01

    The White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (WhV) is uncommon and largely restricted to protected areas across its range in sub-Saharan Africa. We used the World Database on Protected Areas to identify protected areas (PAs) likely to contain White-headed Vultures. Vulture occurrence on road transects in Southern, East, and West Africa was adjusted to nests per km(2) using data from areas with known numbers of nests and corresponding road transect data. Nest density was used to calculate the number of WhV nests within identified PAs and from there extrapolated to estimate the global population. Across a fragmented range, 400 PAs are estimated to contain 1893 WhV nests. Eastern Africa is estimated to contain 721 nests, Central Africa 548 nests, Southern Africa 468 nests, and West Africa 156 nests. Including immature and nonbreeding birds, and accounting for data deficient PAs, the estimated global population is 5475 - 5493 birds. The identified distribution highlights are alarming: over 78% (n = 313) of identified PAs contain fewer than five nests. A further 17% (n = 68) of PAs contain 5 - 20 nests and 4% (n = 14) of identified PAs are estimated to contain >20 nests. Just 1% (n = 5) of PAs are estimated to contain >40 nests; none is located in West Africa. Whilst ranging behavior of WhVs is currently unknown, 35% of PAs large enough to hold >20 nests are isolated by more than 100 km from other PAs. Spatially discrete and unpredictable mortality events such as poisoning pose major threats to small localized vulture populations and will accelerate ongoing local extinctions. Apart from reducing the threat of poisoning events, conservation actions promoting linkages between protected areas should be pursued. Identifying potential areas for assisted re-establishment via translocation offers the potential to expand the range of this species and alleviate risk.

  8. High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

    2009-05-10

    Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

  9. Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Gemmell

    Full Text Available Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+, inward rectifying K(+, L-type Ca(2+, and Na(+/K(+ pump currents in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al. at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in

  10. Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemmell, Philip; Burrage, Kevin; Rodriguez, Blanca; Quinn, T Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally

  11. Investigation of Chemokine Receptor CCR2V64Il Gene Polymorphism and Migraine without Aura in the Iranian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Zandifar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives. Migraine is a multifactorial common neurovascular disease with a polygenic inheritance. Inflammation plays an important part in migraine pathophysiology. C-C chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2 is an important chemokine for monocyte aggregation and transendothelial monocyte migration. The aim of our study was to investigate the association of migraine with CCR2V64Il polymorphism in the Iranian population. Methods. We assessed 103 patients with newly diagnosed migraine and 100 healthy subjects. Genomic DNA samples were extracted from peripheral blood and genotypes of CCR2V64Il gene polymorphism were determined. For measuring the severity of headache, every patient filled out the MIGSEV questionnaire. Results. There were no significant differences in the distribution of both 64Il allele and heterozygote (GA genotype of CCR2 gene polymorphism (P=0.396; OR=0.92, 95% CI = 0.50–1.67 and P=0.388; OR=0.91, 95% CI = 0.47–1.73, resp. between case and control groups. There was no significant difference of alleles frequency between three grades of MIGSEV (P=0.922. Conclusions. In conclusion our results revealed no association between CCR2V64Il polymorphism and susceptibility to migraine and also headache severity in the Iranian population.

  12. Investigation of genetic structure between deep and shallow populations of the southern Rock Lobster, Jasus edwardsii in Tasmania, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin M J Morgan

    Full Text Available The southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii, shows clear phenotypic differences between shallow water (red coloured and deeper water (pale coloured individuals. Translocations of individuals from deeper water to shallower waters are currently being trialled as a management strategy to facilitate a phenotypic change from lower value pale colouration, common in deeper waters, to the higher value red colouration found in shallow waters. Although panmixia across the J. edwardsii range has been long assumed, it is critical to assess the genetic variability of the species to ensure that the level of population connectivity is appropriately understood and translocations do not have unintended consequences. Eight microsatellite loci were used to investigate genetic differentiation between six sites (three shallow, three deep across southern Tasmania, Australia, and one from New Zealand. Based on analyses the assumption of panmixia was rejected, revealing small levels of genetic differentiation across southern Tasmania, significant levels of differentiation between Tasmania and New Zealand, and high levels of asymmetric gene flow in an easterly direction from Tasmania into New Zealand. These results suggest that translocation among Tasmanian populations are not likely to be problematic, however, a re-consideration of panmictic stock structure for this species is necessary.

  13. Accelerated cognitive decline in a rodent model for temporal lobe epilepsy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, Sandra; Aalbers, Marlien W.; Rijkers, Kim; Lagiere, Melanie; Bogaarts, Jan G.; Blokland, Arjan; Klinkenberg, Sylvia; Hoogland, Govert; Vles, Johan S. H.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive impairment is frequently observed in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. It is hypothesized that cumulative seizure exposure causes accelerated cognitive decline in patients with epilepsy. We investigated the influence of seizure frequency on cognitive decline in a rodent

  14. Marital status and living situation during a 5-year period are associated with a subsequent 10-year cognitive decline in older men: The FINE study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gelder, van B.M.; Tijhuis, M.; Kalmijn, S.; Giampaoli, S.; Nissinen, A.; Kromhout, D.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the association between marital status and living situation (over 5 years) on 10-year subsequent cognitive decline. The study population consisted of 1,042 men aged 70-89 years in 1990, who participated in the longitudinal Finland, Italy, the Netherlands Elderly (known as FINE) Study.

  15. Energy consumption declined in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    On presenting the energy consumption figures for 1993 the Minister for Economic Affairs of Baden-Wuerttemberg Dieter Spoeri (SPD) spoke of the eternal task of saving energy. In his view the slight decline in energy consumption from 1992 to 1993 should not be interpreted as a greater willingness to save energy; its main cause is rather to be seen in the course of the economy. According to estimations, total energy consumption fell 0.5% and electricity consumption 1.0% from 1992 to 1993. The economy on the other hand, still a decisive factor in energy consumption, is estimated to have declined 3% during that period. In the ten years from 1983 to 1993 total energy consumption in the Land rose an average annual 1.8% while electricity consumption kept astride with the economy with an average annual rise 2.7%, he said. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Are our forests declining. Why

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leygonie, R.

    1991-01-01

    This article first presents the historical background of recent events popularized under the names: acid rains, forests declines. The first major crisis was soil and lake acidifications in Scandinavian countries, then a fast forest decay, first in Germany, in the early eighties, then in a number of European countries, including France. These phenomena were attributed to atmospheric pollutions, essentially acidic pollution. The consequences were drastic legislations in Germany, then the European Directive on large combustion plants (November 1988). Another consequence was the UNECE Convention on long range transport of pollutants (1979). Observations in the field on tree declines (loss of needles or leaves, abnormal yellowings, soil studies, etc.) and laboratory experiments showed that causes are very complex, involving the low quality of soils, abnormal droughts, presence of pollutants in atmosphere, mainly ozone [fr

  17. Cognitive decline in Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarsland, Dag; Creese, Byron; Politis, Marios; Chaudhuri, K. Ray; ffytche, Dominic H.; Weintraub, Daniel; Ballard, Clive

    2017-01-01

    Dementia is a frequent problem encountered in advanced stages of Parkinson disease (PD). In recent years, research has focused on the pre-dementia stages of cognitive impairment in PD, including mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Several longitudinal studies have shown that MCI is a harbinger of dementia in PD, although the course is variable, and stabilization of cognition — or even reversal to normal cognition — is not uncommon. In addition to limbic and cortical spread of Lewy pathology, several other mechanisms are likely to contribute to cognitive decline in PD, and a variety of biomarker studies, some using novel structural and functional imaging techniques, have documented in vivo brain changes associated with cognitive impairment. The evidence consistently suggests that low cerebrospinal fluid levels of amyloid-β42, a marker of comorbid Alzheimer disease (AD), predict future cognitive decline and dementia in PD. Emerging genetic evidence indicates that in addition to the APOE*ε4 allele (an established risk factor for AD), GBA mutations and SCNA mutations and triplications are associated with cognitive decline in PD, whereas the findings are mixed for MAPT polymorphisms. Cognitive enhancing medications have some effect in PD dementia, but no convincing evidence that progression from MCI to dementia can be delayed or prevented is available, although cognitive training has shown promising results. PMID:28257128

  18. Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

    2013-01-01

    Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

  19. Brucella abortus Strain RB51 Vaccine: Immune Response after Calfhood Vaccination and Field Investigation in Italian Cattle Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Tittarelli

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Immune response to Brucella abortus strain RB51 vaccine was measured in cattle vaccinated at calfhood. After an increase at day 6 post-vaccination (pv, the antibody level recorded in the 10 vaccinated animals remained constant for two months, and then progressively decreased. All vaccinated animals remained negative from day 162 pv to the end of the study (day 300 pv. Only at days 13 and 14 pv the RB51-CFT showed 100% sensitivity (credibility interval (CI 76.2%–100%. The results indicate that the possibility to use RB51-CFT for the identification of cattle vaccinated at calfhood with RB51 is limited in time. A field investigation was carried out on 26,975 sera collected on regional basis from the Italian cattle population. The study outcomes indicate that in case of RB51-CFT positive results observed in officially Brucellosis-free (OBF areas and, in any case, when an illegal use of RB51 vaccine is suspected, the use of the RB51-CFT alone is not sufficient to identify all the vaccinated animals. The design of a more sophisticated diagnostic protocol including an epidemiological investigation, the use of RB51-CFT, and the use of the skin test with RB51 as antigen is deemed more appropriate for the identification of RB51 vaccinated animals.

  20. Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

    2017-01-20

    If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

  1. Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C.M. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology and Wildlife; Sink, S.E.; Juday, G.P. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Hennon, P.E.; D' Amore, D.V. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Juneau, AK (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory

    2008-06-15

    The decline of yellow cedar in temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska was investigated. Dieback of the species has been observed as early as 1909. The dehardening process for the species is highly temperature-dependent. Declining stands have been found in open-canopy forests on poorly drained sites. Historical climate data sets were compiled suing extensive tree-ring chronologies. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that a specific suite of microclimatic conditions that occur during late winter involving early dehardening, reduced snowpack, and freezing injury are responsible. The assumption was tested by examining regional climatic trends and growth responses of declining cedar populations. Results of the study showed increasing winter temperatures in the region which have resulted in the frequent occurrence of severe thaw-freeze events. Late winter weather was the best predictor of annual growth for surviving trees. Results of the study also verified the impact of elevational gradients of temperature and snow cover on the exposure of the trees to climatic stressors. It was concluded that yellow cedars may continue to decline with continued climatic warming. 36 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.

  2. Surgery-Independent Language Function Decline in Patients Undergoing Awake Craniotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonen, Tal; Sela, Gal; Yanakee, Ranin; Ram, Zvi; Grossman, Rachel

    2017-03-01

    Despite selection process before awake-craniotomy, some patients experience an unexpected decline in language functions in the operating room (OR), compared with their baseline evaluation, which may impair their functional monitoring. To investigate this phenomenon we prospectively compared language function the day before surgery and on entrance to the OR. Data were collected prospectively from consecutive patients undergoing awake-craniotomy with intraoperative cortical mapping for resection of gliomas affecting language areas. Language functions of 79 patients were evaluated and compared 1-2 days before surgery and after entering the OR. Changes in functional linguistic performance were analyzed with respect to demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics. There was a significant decline in language function, beyond sedation effect, after entering the OR, (from median/interquartile range: 0.94/0.72-0.98 to median/interquartile range: 0.86/0.51-0.94; Z = -7.19, P awake-craniotomy may experience a substantial decline in language functioning after entering the OR. Tumor grade and the presence of preoperative language deficits were significant risk factors for this phenomenon, suggesting a possible relation between cognitive reserve, psychobehavioral coping abilities and histologic features of a tumor involving language areas. Capturing and identifying this unique population of patients who are prone to experience such language decline may improve our ability in the future to select patients eligible for awake-craniotomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Disentangling the effects of date, individual, and territory quality on the seasonal decline in fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pärt, Tomas; Knape, Jonas; Low, Matthew; Öberg, Meit; Arlt, Debora

    2017-08-01

    The seasonal timing of reproduction is a major fitness factor in many organisms. Commonly, individual fitness declines with time in the breeding season. We investigated three suggested but rarely tested hypotheses for this seasonal fitness decline: (1) time per se (date hypothesis), (2) late breeders are of lower quality than early ones (individual quality hypothesis), and (3) late breeders are breeding at poorer territories than early breeders (territory quality hypothesis). We used Bayesian variance component analyses to examine reproductive output (breeding success, number fledged, and number of recruits) from repeated observations of female Northern Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) and individual territories from a 20-yr population study. The major part of the observed seasonal decline in reproductive output seemed to be driven by date-related effects, whereas female age and territory type (i.e., known indicators of temporary quality) contributed to a smaller degree. Other, persistent effects linked to individual and territory identity did not show any clear patterns on the seasonal decline in reproductive output. To better disentangle the quality effects (persistent and temporary) of individual and territory from effects caused by the deterioration of the environment we suggest a protocol combining experimental manipulation of breeding time with a variance-covariance partitioning method used here. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Pre-Columbian population dynamics in coastal southern Peru: A diachronic investigation of mtDNA patterns in the Palpa region by ancient DNA analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Reindel, Markus; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Hummel, Susanne; Herrmann, Bernd

    2010-02-01

    Alternative models have been proposed to explain the formation and decline of the south Peruvian Nasca culture, ranging from migration or invasion to autochthonous development and ecological crisis. To reveal to what extent population dynamic processes accounted for cultural development in the Nasca mainland, or were influenced by them, we analyzed ancient mitochondrial DNA of 218 individuals, originating from chronologically successive archaeological sites in the Palpa region, the Paracas Peninsula, and the Andean highlands in southern Peru. The sampling strategy allowed a diachronic analysis in a time frame from approximately 800 BC to 800 AD. Mitochondrial coding region polymorphisms were successfully analyzed and replicated for 130 individuals and control region sequences (np 16021-16408) for 104 individuals to determine Native American mitochondrial DNA haplogroups and haplotypes. The results were compared with ancient and contemporary Peruvian populations to reveal genetic relations of the archaeological samples. Frequency data and statistics show clear proximity of the Nasca populations to the populations of the preceding Paracas culture from Palpa and the Peninsula, and suggest, along with archaeological data, that the Nasca culture developed autochthonously in the Rio Grande drainage. Furthermore, the influence of changes in socioeconomic complexity in the Palpa area on the genetic diversity of the local population could be observed. In all, a strong genetic affinity between pre-Columbian coastal populations from southern Peru could be determined, together with a significant differentiation from ancient highland and all present-day Peruvian reference populations, best shown in the differential distribution of mitochondrial haplogroups. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  5. Interplay between financial assets and social relations on decline in physical function and mortality among older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Terese Sara Høj; Lund, Rikke; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2017-01-01

    It is well established that socioeconomic position (SEP) and social relations impact physical function and mortality in old age. Due to differential vulnerability, few social relations may lead to greater decline in physical function and mortality among older people with low compared to high SEP....... The aim was to investigate whether older people with few social relations experience greater decline in physical function and mortality when also subject to low financial assets? The study population included 4060 older people aged 75 or 80 years at baseline in 1998–1999. Social relations at baseline...... and physical function at baseline and after 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 years were obtained from questionnaires. Financial assets at baseline and mortality during 10 years of follow-up were obtained from registers. Analyses of the associations between financial assets combined with social relations and decline...

  6. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

    2018-01-18

    Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

  7. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C Guilherme; Toledo, Luís Felipe

    2017-02-08

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd 's global emergence , further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd -screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd -infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979-1987). We also found that clusters of Bd -positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Historical amphibian declines and extinctions in Brazil linked to chytridiomycosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Tamilie; Becker, C. Guilherme

    2017-01-01

    The recent increase in emerging fungal diseases is causing unprecedented threats to biodiversity. The origin of spread of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a matter of continued debate. To date, the historical amphibian declines in Brazil could not be attributed to chytridiomycosis; the high diversity of hosts coupled with the presence of several Bd lineages predating the reported declines raised the hypothesis that a hypervirulent Bd genotype spread from Brazil to other continents causing the recent global amphibian crisis. We tested for a spatio-temporal overlap between Bd and areas of historical amphibian population declines and extinctions in Brazil. A spatio-temporal convergence between Bd and declines would support the hypothesis that Brazilian amphibians were not adapted to Bd prior to the reported declines, thus weakening the hypothesis that Brazil was the global origin of Bd emergence. Alternatively, a lack of spatio-temporal association between Bd and frog declines would indicate an evolution of host resistance in Brazilian frogs predating Bd's global emergence, further supporting Brazil as the potential origin of the Bd panzootic. Here, we Bd-screened over 30 000 museum-preserved tadpoles collected in Brazil between 1930 and 2015 and overlaid spatio-temporal Bd data with areas of historical amphibian declines. We detected an increase in the proportion of Bd-infected tadpoles during the peak of amphibian declines (1979–1987). We also found that clusters of Bd-positive samples spatio-temporally overlapped with most records of amphibian declines in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our findings indicate that Brazil is post epizootic for chytridiomycosis and provide another piece to the puzzle to explain the origin of Bd globally. PMID:28179514

  9. Mutational meltdown in laboratory yeast populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeyl, C.; Mizesko, M.; Visser, de J.A.G.M.

    2001-01-01

    In small or repeatedly bottlenecked populations, mutations are expected to accumulate by genetic drift, causing fitness declines. In mutational meltdown models, such fitness declines further reduce population size, thus accelerating additional mutation accumulation and leading to extinction. Because

  10. Investigation of KIF6 Trp719Arg in a case-control study of myocardial infarction: a Costa Rican population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lance A Bare

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The 719Arg allele of KIF6 (rs20455 was associated with coronary events in Caucasian participants of five prospective studies. We investigated whether this KIF6 variant was associated with non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI in a case-control study of an admixed population from the Central Valley of Costa Rica. Genotypes of the KIF6 variant were determined for 4,134 men and women. Cases (1,987 had survived a first MI; controls (2,147 had no history of MI and were matched to cases by age, sex, and area of residence. We tested the association between the KIF6 719Arg allele and non-fatal MI by conditional logistic regression and adjusted for admixture of founder populations.Compared with the reference Trp/Trp homozygotes, KIF6 719Arg carriers were not at significantly higher risk for non-fatal MI in this study after adjustment for traditional risk factors or admixture (OR= 1.12; 95%CI, 0.98-1.28. Heterozygotes of the KIF6 Trp719Arg variant were at increased risk of non-fatal MI: the adjusted odds ratio was 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.34, but this association would not be significant after a multiple testing correction.We found that carriers of the KIF6 719Arg allele were not at increased risk of non-fatal MI in a case-control study of Costa Ricans living in the Central Valley of Costa Rica.

  11. Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L

    1977-01-01

    Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.

  12. Declining Enrollments: A New Dilemma for Educators. Fastback 116.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keough, William F., Jr.

    Twenty years after the baby boom, U.S. population is falling and school enrollment is declining. Contrary to public expectations, smaller enrollment does not mean smaller school budgets, and balancing the educational budget will require cutting programs, closing schools, and reducing teacher force. The experience of the East Meadow (New York)…

  13. Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathías Nathan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The total fertility rate (TFR in Uruguay fell from 2.5 to 1.9 children per woman between 1996 and 2011. However, no study to date has examined the decline of the TFR by observing changes in fertility patterns by birth order. Objective: The main aim of this study is to analyze recent changes in fertility level and timing of childbearing by birth order in Uruguay. Methods: We estimate unconditional and conditional age- and birth-order-specific fertility rates for 1996-2011 using data from vital statistics, population census, and national population estimates. Additionally, three period summary measures of birth-order-specific fertility quantum are calculated: TFR, PATFR and TFRp*. Timing changes by birth order are examined with MAB and TMAB, focusing on MAB1 and its standard deviation and comparing their evolutions in Uruguay with those of selected countries. Results: Fertility decline fits a parity-specific stopping model with a moderate increase in the mean ages of first, second, and third births. The distribution of conditional fertility rates for first and second births depicts an asymmetric bimodal shape linked to the increasing heterogeneity of the timing of childbearing. Compared to countries with similar fertility trends, heterogeneity in the age at first birth in Uruguay is remarkably high. Conclusions: Previous studies suggest that heterogeneity in first and second birth timing is related to structural social inequalities, as women from lower social strata have not significantly changed the age at which they bear a first child, whereas women of middle to high social strata have started to postpone it. The new evidence reinforces the idea that postponement transition in Uruguay cannot be studied without considering this consolidation of social status polarization in fertility timing.

  14. Preventing cognitive decline, sedentariness and malnutrition: the DOREMI approach

    OpenAIRE

    Parodi, Oberdan; Vozzi, Federico; Ferro, Erina; Fortunati, Luigi; Micheli, Alessio; Bacciu, Davide; Gallicchio, Claudio; Chessa, Stefano; Ascolese, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    All countries in Europe are experiencing an ageing of their populations, with a decrease in the number of people of working age per retiree. Health trends among the elderly are mixed: severe disability is declining in some countries but increasing in others, while mild disability and chronic disease are generally increasing. As a consequence, long-term care costs are certain to increase with the ageing of the population, unless appropriate measures are implemented and elderly people empowered...

  15. Investigating the CFH Gene Polymorphisms as a Risk Factor for Age-related Macular Degeneration in an Iranian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babanejad, Mojgan; Moein, Hamidreza; Akbari, Mohammad R; Badiei, Azadeh; Yaseri, Mehdi; Soheilian, Masoud; Najmabadi, Hossein

    2016-06-01

    Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a complex disorder which results in irreversible vision loss and progressive impairment of central vision. Disease susceptibility is influenced by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in the complement factor H gene are the most important genetic risk factors. We conducted a case-control study to investigate the association four SNPs (dbSNP ID: rs800292, rs1061170, rs2274700 and rs3753395) of CFH gene with AMD in the Iranian population. We recruited 100 AMD patients and 100 age- and sex-matched normal controls. Direct sequencing for three SNPs (rs800292, rs2274700 and rs3753395) and restriction fragment length polymorphism utilized for rs1061170. Allele and genotype frequencies of SNPs were calculated and tested for departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium using the Chi-square test. An allelic and genotypic association was compared by logistic regression analysis using the SNPassoc. According to our results, the frequencies of risk allele for all SNPs (G, G, A, and C alleles of rs800292, rs2274700, rs3753395 and rs1061170, respectively) were significantly higher in AMD patients (p value prevention and treatment of AMD.

  16. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, K.B.; Kentie, R.; Verkuil, Y.; Musters, C.J.M.; Piersma, Th.; Snoo, de G.R.

    2011-01-01

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  17. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa limosa in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, Krijn B.; Musters, C. J. M.; Verkuil, Yvonne I.; Kentie, Rosemarie; Piersma, Theunis; de Snoo, Geert R.

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  18. Tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus sp) learning how to crack nuts: does variability decline throughout development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resende, Briseida Dogo; Nagy-Reis, Mariana Baldy; Lacerda, Fernanda Neves; Pagnotta, Murillo; Savalli, Carine

    2014-11-01

    We investigated the process of nut-cracking acquisition in a semi-free population of tufted capuchin monkeys (Sapajus sp) in São Paulo, Brazil. We analyzed the cracking episodes from monkeys of different ages and found that variability of actions related to cracking declined. Inept movements were more frequent in juveniles, which also showed an improvement on efficient striking. The most effective behavioral sequence for cracking was more frequently used by the most experienced monkeys, which also used non-optimal sequences. Variability in behavior sequences and actions may allow adaptive changes to behavior under changing environmental conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Decline in word-finding: The objective cognitive finding most relevant to patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauli, Carla; de Oliveira Thais, Maria Emilia Rodrigues; Guarnieri, Ricardo; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Diaz, Alexandre Paim; Ben, Juliana; Linhares, Marcelo Neves; Markowitsch, Hans Joachim; Wolf, Peter; Wiebe, Samuel; Lin, Katia; Walz, Roger

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the following: i) the objective impairment in neuropsychological tests that were associated with the subjective perception of cognitive function decline in Brazilian patients who underwent mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) surgery and ii) the predictive variables for those impaired objective neuropsychological tests. Forty-eight adults with MTLE (27 right HS and 23 male) were divided according to their perception of changes (Decline or No-decline) of cognitive function domain of the QOLIE-31 questionnaire applied before and 1year after the ATL. The mean (SD) of changes in the raw score difference of the neuropsychological tests before and after the ATL was compared between Decline and No-decline groups. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were used to assess the optimum cutoff points of neuropsychological test score changes to predict patient-reported subjective cognitive decline. Six (12.5%) patients reported a perception of cognitive function decline after ATL. Among the 25 cognitive tests analyzed, only changes in the Boston Naming Test (BNT) were associated with subjective cognitive decline reported by patients. A reduction of ≥8 points in the raw score of BNT after surgery had 91% of sensitivity and 45% specificity for predicting subjective perception of cognitive function decline by the patient. Left side surgery and age older than 40years were more associated with an important BNT reduction with overall accuracy of 91.7%, 95% predictive ability for no impairment, and 75% for impairment of cognitive function. Impairment in word-finding seems to be the objective cognitive finding most relevant to Brazilian patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery. Similar to American patients, the side of surgery and age are good predictors for no decline in the BNT, but shows a lower accuracy to predict its decline. If replicated in other populations, the

  20. Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

  1. Body Mass Index and Decline of Cognitive Function.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Kim

    Full Text Available The association between body mass index (BMI and cognitive function is a public health issue. This study investigated the relationship between obesity and cognitive impairment which was assessed by the Korean version of the Mini-mental state examination (K-MMSE among mid- and old-aged people in South Korea.A cohort of 5,125 adults, age 45 or older with normal cognitive function (K-MMSE≥24 at baseline (2006, was derived from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA 2006~2012. The association between baseline BMI and risk of cognitive impairment was assessed using multiple logistic regression models. We also assessed baseline BMI and change of cognitive function over the 6-year follow-up using multiple linear regressions.During the follow-up, 358 cases of severe cognitive impairment were identified. Those with baseline BMI≥25 kg/m2 than normal-weight (18.5≤BMI<23 kg/m2 were marginally less likely to experience the development of severe cognitive impairment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.52 to 1.03; Ptrend = 0.03. This relationship was stronger among female (aOR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.40 to 1.00; Ptrend = 0.01 and participants with low-normal K-MMSE score (MMSE: 24-26 at baseline (aOR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.98; Ptrend<0.01. In addition, a slower decline of cognitive function was observed in obese individuals than those with normal weight, especially among women and those with low-normal K-MMSE score at baseline.In this nationally representative study, we found that obesity was associated with lower risk of cognitive decline among mid- and old-age population.

  2. Decline in breast cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Njor, Sisse Helle; Schwartz, Walter; Blichert-Toft, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: When estimating the decline in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening, the challenge is to provide valid comparison groups and to distinguish the screening effect from other effects. In Funen, Denmark, multidisciplinary breast cancer management teams started before screening...... was introduced; both activities came later in the rest of Denmark. Because Denmark had national protocols for breast cancer treatment, but hardly any opportunistic screening, Funen formed a "natural experiment", providing valid comparison groups and enabling the separation of the effect of screening from other...... factors. METHODS: Using Poisson regression we compared the observed breast cancer mortality rate in Funen after implementation of screening with the expected rate without screening. The latter was estimated from breast cancer mortality in the rest of Denmark controlled for historical differences between...

  3. Altered Reproductive Function and Amphibian Declines

    OpenAIRE

    Gallipeau, Sherrie

    2014-01-01

    Agrochemical exposure is one of the factors that contributes to worldwide amphibian declines. Most studies that examine agrochemicals and amphibian declines focus on toxicity. However, declines are more likely caused by the sub-lethal effects of agrochemical exposure. Past emphases on the lethal effects of agrochemical exposure have overshadowed the contribution of decreased recruitment in amphibian declines. Additionally, studies that examine agrochemicals and reproductive function tend to f...

  4. Investigation of hemorrhagic fever viruses inside wild populations of ticks: One of the pioneer studies in Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rania Ali El Hadi Mohamed

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To screen hemorrhagic fever viruses inside wild populations of ticks collected from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between January and March 2016. Methods: Ticks were identified depending on their morphological features using classical keys then grouped into pools. Ticks in each pool were processed separately using the sterile pestles and mortars. Viral RNA was extracted using Qiagen RNeasy Mini Kit and Qiagen RNAeasy Columns (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany according to the instructions of manufacturers. A total number of 1 282 hard ticks were collected, and 582 of them were precisely identified then screened for the presence of arboviruses using quantitative real-time PCR. The four species were screened for six viruses: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV, Alkhurma virus (INKV, Sindbis virus (SINV, and Pan Hanta virus (HANTA. CT value for the negative control (RNA free water was zero. Negative and positive controls were tested for each test to confirm the specificity of the selected primer pairs. SYBR Green One step RT-PCR Master Mix (KAPA Biosystems, Boston, MA was tested along with primers. Results: Ticks identification resulted into four species: Hyalomma schulzei, Hyalomma onatoli, Boophilus kdhlsi, and Hyalomm dromedarii. All the ticks’ species (except Boophilus kdhlsi were positive for the following viruses: SINV, RVFV, CHIKV, and CCHFV. While HANTA viruses have been detected in a single species (Hyalomm dromedarii. Conclusions: According to our knowledge this research may be one of the pioneer studies in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Incrimination of the above mentioned ticks species as well as their vectorial capacity are highly recommended for investigation in the upcoming researches.

  5. Comparing administrative and survey data for ascertaining cases of irritable bowel syndrome: a population-based investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Targownick Laura E

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Administrative and survey data are two key data sources for population-based research about chronic disease. The objectives of this methodological paper are to: (1 estimate agreement between the two data sources for irritable bowel syndrome (IBS and compare the results to those for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD; (2 compare the frequency of IBS-related diagnoses in administrative data for survey respondents with and without self-reported IBS, and (3 estimate IBS prevalence from both sources. Methods This retrospective cohort study used linked administrative and health survey data for 5,134 adults from the province of Manitoba, Canada. Diagnoses in hospital and physician administrative data were investigated for respondents with self-reported IBS, IBD, and no bowel disorder. Agreement between survey and administrative data was estimated using the κ statistic. The χ2 statistic tested the association between the frequency of IBS-related diagnoses and self-reported IBS. Crude, sex-specific, and age-specific IBS prevalence estimates were calculated from both sources. Results Overall, 3.0% of the cohort had self-reported IBS, 0.8% had self-reported IBD, and 95.3% reported no bowel disorder. Agreement was poor to fair for IBS and substantially higher for IBD. The most frequent IBS-related diagnoses among the cohort were anxiety disorders (34.4%, symptoms of the abdomen and pelvis (26.9%, and diverticulitis of the intestine (10.6%. Crude IBS prevalence estimates from both sources were lower than those reported previously. Conclusions Poor agreement between administrative and survey data for IBS may account for differences in the results of health services and outcomes research using these sources. Further research is needed to identify the optimal method(s to ascertain IBS cases in both data sources.

  6. Investigating the factorial structure and availability of work time control in a representative sample of the Swedish working population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Sophie C; Kecklund, Göran; Tucker, Philip; Leineweber, Constanze

    2016-05-01

    Past research has often neglected the sub-dimensions of work time control (WTC). Moreover, differences in levels of WTC with respect to work and demographic characteristics have not yet been examined in a representative sample. We investigated these matters in a recent sample of the Swedish working population. The study was based on the 2014 data collection of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health. We assessed the structure of the WTC measure using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Differences in WTC by work and demographic characteristics were examined with independent samplet-tests, one-way ANOVAs and gender-stratified logistic regressions. Best model fit was found for a two-factor structure that distinguished between control over daily hours and control over time off (root mean square error of approximation = 0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.09; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.99). Women, shift and public-sector workers reported lower control in relation to both factors. Age showed small associations with WTC, while a stronger link was suggested for civil status and family situation. Night, roster and rotating shift work seemed to be the most influential factors on reporting low control over daily hours and time off. Our data confirm the two-dimensional structure underlying WTC, namely the components 'control over daily hours' and 'control over time off'. Women, public-sector and shift workers reported lower levels of control. Future research should examine the public health implications of WTC, in particular whether increased control over daily hours and time off can reduce health problems associated with difficult working-time arrangements. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  7. Investigating behaviour and population dynamics of striped marlin (Kajikia audax from the southwest Pacific Ocean with satellite tags.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Sippel

    Full Text Available Behaviour and distribution of striped marlin within the southwest Pacific Ocean were investigated using electronic tagging data collected from 2005-2008. A continuous-time correlated random-walk Kalman filter was used to integrate double-tagging data exhibiting variable error structures into movement trajectories composed of regular time-steps. This state-space trajectory integration approach improved longitude and latitude error distributions by 38.5 km and 22.2 km respectively. Using these trajectories as inputs, a behavioural classification model was developed to infer when, and where, 'transiting' and 'area-restricted' (ARB pseudo-behavioural states occurred. ARB tended to occur at shallower depths (108 ± 49 m than did transiting behaviours (127 ± 57 m. A 16 day post-release period of diminished ARB activity suggests that patterns of behaviour were affected by the capture and/or tagging events, implying that tagged animals may exhibit atypical behaviour upon release. The striped marlin in this study dove deeper and spent greater time at ≥ 200 m depth than those in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. As marlin reached tropical latitudes (20-21 °S they consistently reversed directions, increased swimming speed and shifted to transiting behaviour. Reversals in the tropics also coincided with increases in swimming depth, including increased time ≥ 250 m. Our research provides enhanced understanding of the behavioural ecology of striped marlin. This has implications for the effectiveness of spatially explicit population models and we demonstrate the need to consider geographic variation when standardizing CPUE by depth, and provide data to inform natural and recreational fishing mortality parameters.

  8. Sick regimes and sick people: a multilevel investigation of the population health consequences of perceived national corruption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witvliet, Margot I.; Kunst, Anton E.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Stronks, Karien

    2013-01-01

    There is a paucity of empirical work on the potential population health impact of living under a regime marred by corruption. African countries differ in the extent of national corruption, and we explore whether perceived national corruption is associated with population health across all rungs of

  9. An investigation of secondary anti-D immunisation among phenotypically RhD-negative individuals in the Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qing-Ping; Dong, Guang-Tao; Wang, Xue-Dong; Gu, Juan; Li, Zheng; Sun, An-Yuan; Shao, Chao-Peng; Pan, Zhao-Lin; Huang, Li-Hua; Xie, Wei-Xing; Sun, Guang-Ming; Chen, Jian-Jiang; Pei, Hao; Yang, Xiao-Juan; Shan, Ping-Nan

    2014-04-01

    Despite the introduction of anti-D prophylaxis into clinical practice, RhD alloimmunisation remains a problem, particularly in the context of transfusions and pregnancy-induced alloimmunisation. The incidence of RhD alloimmunisation among phenotypically RhD-negative individuals is unknown in most countries. We investigated RhD alloimmmunisation in RhD-negative pregnant women and transfusion recipients in south-east China in order to optimise the prevention of this phenomenon. We analysed the RhD alloimmunisation status of RhD-negative pregnant women and transfusion recipients in south-east China. The RhD blood types of the study population were identified by standard serological methods. The D antigen was further tested with the indirect antiglobulin test to exclude or confirm weak D or partial D types. RhC, c, E and e antigens were typed in all subjects. If anti-D antibody screening was positive, the specificity and titre of the antibody were determined. The Del phenotype was investigated by the polymerase chain reaction sequence-specific primer method. An anti-D antibody was found in 61 of 416 RhD-negative pregnant women (14.66%), and in 11 of 227 RhD-negative transfusion recipients (4.85%). None of the 72 RhD-negative pregnant women or transfusion recipients with anti-D had the Del phenotype. Anti-D antibodies were not detected among Del phenotype individuals and Del phenotypes were not found in anti-D antibody producing individuals. Our study suggests that the risk of alloimmunity-induced neonatal haemolysis increases in true RhD-negative multipara. Perinatal protection would be necessary in these patients, while antenatal anti-D testing and Rh immune globulin prophylaxis would be unnecessary for RhDel pregnant women. Pregnant women and transfusion recipients with the Del type seldom produce anti-D antibody. RhD-negative recipients are not at risk of alloimmunisation after transfusion with Del red blood cells.

  10. Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

    2007-05-15

    Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

  11. Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

    2018-02-01

    ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

  12. Social relationships and cognitive decline: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuiper, Jisca S; Zuidersma, Marij; Zuidema, Sytse U; Burgerhof, Johannes Gm; Stolk, Ronald P; Oude Voshaar, Richard C; Smidt, Nynke

    2016-08-01

    Although poor social relationships are assumed to contribute to cognitive decline, meta-analytic approaches have not been applied. Individual study results are mixed and difficult to interpret due to heterogeneity in measures of social relationships. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the relation between poor social relationships and cognitive decline. MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO were searched for longitudinal cohort studies examining various aspects of social relationships and cognitive decline in the general population. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Sources of heterogeneity were explored and likelihood of publication bias was assessed. We stratified analyses according to three aspects of social relationships: structural, functional and a combination of these. We identified 43 articles. Poor social relationships predicted cognitive decline; for structural (19 studies): pooled OR: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05-1.11); functional (8 studies): pooled OR: 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.32); and combined measures (7 studies): pooled OR: 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01-1.24). Meta-regression and subgroup analyses showed that the heterogeneity could be explained by the type of social relationship measurement and methodological quality of included studies. Despite heterogeneity in study design and measures, our meta-analyses show that multiple aspects of social relationships are associated with cognitive decline. As evidence for publication bias was found, the association might be overestimated and should therefore be interpreted with caution. Future studies are needed to better define the mechanisms underlying these associations. Potential causality of this prognostic association should be examined in future randomized controlled studies. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  13. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

  14. Ongoing decline of shark populations in the Eastern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Spaet, Julia L.Y.

    2016-06-30

    Information on the abundance and diversity of Red Sea elasmobranchs is notoriously scarce, even though sharks are among the most profitable fisheries of the region. Effective conservation would ideally entail baselines on pristine conditions, yet no such data is available for the Red Sea. To collect distribution and abundance data on Red Sea elasmobranchs, we conducted a dedicated longline and Baited Remote Underwater Video system (BRUVs) sampling program along the entire Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia over the course of two years. Both survey techniques were opportunistically employed at central and southern Saudi Arabian (SA) Red Sea reef systems. In addition, BRUVs were employed in the northern SA Red Sea and at selected reef systems in Sudan. Shark catch per unit effort (CPUE) data for BRUVs and longline surveys were compared to published data from non-Red Sea reef systems. This comparison revealed CPUE estimates several orders of magnitude lower for both survey methods in the SA Red Sea compared to other reef systems around the world. Catch per unit effort values of BRUVs on Sudanese reefs on the contrary were within the range of estimates from various locations where sharks are considered common. We argue that decades of heavy fishing pressure on Red Sea marine resources has significantly altered the community structure of SA Red Sea reefs. There is an urgent need to establish effective management strategies for species of highest conservation concern. Our results have the potential to be used as a baseline, if such management strategies were to be established. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  15. Raptor population decline in West Africa | Thiollay | Ostrich: Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The roadside counts conducted in 1969–1973 through Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and northern Cameroon (9 712km) were repeated in 2000–2004 by the same observer, using the same methods, during the same season. Overall, 28 837 Falconiforms from 51 species were recorded. The four large vultures decreased ...

  16. Potential roles of Labyrinthula spp. in global seagrass population declines

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sullivan, B.K.; Sherman, T.D.; Damare, V.S.; Lilje, O.; Gleason, F.H.

    are able to cause ecologically significant diseases of protists, plants and animals. Here, the pathosystem model is applied to host–parasite relationships in seagrass ecosystems. Known physical and biological stressors of seagrass are reviewed. Finally, we...

  17. Global population decline of the Great Slaty Woodpecker (Mulleripicus pulverulentus)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammertink, M.; Prawiradilaga, D.M.; Setiorini, U.; Zaw Naing, T.; Duckworth, J.W.; Menken, S.B.J.

    2009-01-01

    The Great Slaty Woodpecker (Mulleripicus pulverulentus) of South and Southeast Asia, the third largest woodpecker species in the world, is currently in the IUCN Red List category of Least Concern. This woodpecker appears associated with old-growth forests, and the rapid reductions in forest cover

  18. Ongoing decline of shark populations in the Eastern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Spaet, Julia L.Y.; Nanninga, Gerrit B.; Berumen, Michael L.

    2016-01-01

    compared to other reef systems around the world. Catch per unit effort values of BRUVs on Sudanese reefs on the contrary were within the range of estimates from various locations where sharks are considered common. We argue that decades of heavy fishing

  19. Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona Maisels

    Full Text Available African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

  20. Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

    2014-01-01

    Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery. PMID:24634720

  1. Late life leisure activities and risk of cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui-Xin; Jin, Yinlong; Hendrie, Hugh C; Liang, Chaoke; Yang, Lili; Cheng, Yibin; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Ma, Feng; Hall, Kathleen S; Murrell, Jill R; Li, Ping; Bian, Jianchao; Pei, Jin-Jing; Gao, Sujuan

    2013-02-01

    Studies concerning the effect of different types of leisure activities on various cognitive domains are limited. This study tests the hypothesis that mental, physical, and social activities have a domain-specific protection against cognitive decline. A cohort of a geographically defined population in China was examined in 2003-2005 and followed for an average of 2.4 years. Leisure activities were assessed in 1,463 adults aged 65 years and older without cognitive or physical impairment at baseline, and their cognitive performances were tested at baseline and follow-up examinations. High level of mental activity was related to less decline in global cognition (β = -.23, p Leisure activities in old age may protect against cognitive decline for both women and men, and different types of activities seem to benefit different cognitive domains.

  2. Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

    2018-01-01

    We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Cognitive declines precede and predict functional declines in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura B Zahodne

    Full Text Available To investigate the temporal ordering of cognitive and functional declines separately in older adults with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD.A community-based longitudinal study of aging and dementia in Northern Manhattan (Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project and a multicenter, clinic-based longitudinal study of prevalent AD at Columbia University Medical Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, and the Hôpital de la Salpêtrière in Paris, France (the Predictors Study.3,443 initially non-demented older adults (612 with eventual incident dementia and 517 patients with AD.Cognitive measures included the modified Mini-Mental State Exam and composite scores of memory and language derived from a standardized neuropsychological battery. Function was measured with the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale, completed by the participant (in the sample of non-demented older adults or an informant (in the sample of prevalent AD patients. Data were analyzed with autoregressive cross-lagged panel analysis.Cognitive scores more consistently predicted subsequent functional abilities than vice versa in non-demented older adults, participants with eventual incident dementia, and patients with prevalent AD.Cognitive declines appear to precede and cause functional declines prior to and following dementia diagnosis. Standardized neuropsychological tests are valid predictors of later functional changes in both non-demented and demented older adults.

  4. Socioeconomic status and fertility decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dribe, Martin; Breschi, Marco; Gagnon, Alain

    2017-01-01

    America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories...

  5. Local extirpations and regional declines of endemic upper beach invertebrates in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, D. M.; Dugan, J. E.; Schooler, N. K.; Viola, S. M.

    2014-10-01

    Along the world's highly valued and populous coastlines, the upper intertidal zones of sandy beach ecosystems and the biodiversity that these zones support are increasingly threatened by impacts of human activities, coastal development, erosion, and climate change. The upper zones of beaches typically support invertebrates with restricted distributions and dispersal, making them particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesized that disproportionate loss or degradation of these zones in the last century has resulted in declines of upper shore macroinvertebrates in southern California. We identified a suite of potentially vulnerable endemic upper beach invertebrates with direct development, low dispersal and late reproduction. Based on the availability of printed sources and museum specimens, we investigated historical changes in distribution and abundance of two intertidal isopod species (Tylos punctatus, Alloniscus perconvexus) in southern California. Populations of these isopods have been extirpated at numerous historically occupied sites: T. punctatus from 16 sites (57% decrease), and A. perconvexus from 14 sites (64% decrease). During the same period, we found evidence of only five colonization events. In addition, the northern range limit of the southern species, T. punctatus, moved south by 31 km (8% of range on California mainland) since 1971. Abundances of T. punctatus have declined on the mainland coast; only three recently sampled populations had abundances >7000 individuals m-1. For A. perconvexus populations, abundances >100 individuals m-1 now appear to be limited to the northern part of the study area. Our results show that numerous local extirpations of isopod populations have resulted in regional declines and in greatly reduced population connectivity in several major littoral cells of southern California. Two of the six major littoral cells (Santa Barbara and Zuma) in the area currently support 74% of the remaining isopod

  6. What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corn, Paul Stephen

    1994-01-01

    The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the

  7. Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Diane M

    2016-10-01

    Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  8. Evaluation of a Bladder Cancer Cluster in a Population of Criminal Investigators with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives—Part 1: The Cancer Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan R. Davis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated a bladder cancer cluster in a cohort of employees, predominately criminal investigators, participating in a medical surveillance program with the United States Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF between 1995 and 2007. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs were used to compare cancer incidences in the ATF population and the US reference population. Seven cases of bladder cancer (five cases verified by pathology report at time of analysis were identified among a total employee population of 3,768 individuals. All cases were white males and criminal investigators. Six of seven cases were in the 30 to 49 age range at the time of diagnosis. The SIRs for white male criminal investigators undergoing examinations were 7.63 (95% confidence interval = 3.70–15.75 for reported cases and 5.45 (2.33–12.76 for verified cases. White male criminal investigators in the ATF population are at statistically significant increased risk for bladder cancer.

  9. Forest declines: Some perspectives on linking processes and patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, S.B.

    1992-01-01

    The regional decline in vigor of some species of forest trees has become an important component in the ecological, aesthetic, and economic criteria by which the costs of anthropogenic pollution are weighed. Because declines are often complex and virtually never without significant natural environmental modifiers, determining the role of specific anthropogenic stresses in initiating or enhancing the rate and direction of change in forest condition represents a significant research challenge. Separation of primary mechanisms that point to principal causes from secondary responses that result from internal feedbacks and the milieu of modifying agents is a critical issue in diagnosing forest decline. Air pollutant stress may have its most significant effects on forest processes by accelerating or amplifying natural stresses. Studies of changes in forest metabolic processes have played an important role in evaluating the role of air pollution in four regional forest declines that are the focus of this paper. The decline of ponderosa pine in the San Bernardino Mountains of California, Norway spruce and silver fir in Europe, loblolly and shortleaf pine in the Southeastern United States, and red spruce in the Eastern Appalachian Mountains provide case studies in which physiological responses to air pollutants under field and laboratory conditions have provided important analytical tools for assessing likely causes. These tools are most effective when both mechanistic explanations and larger scale patterns of response are evaluated in an iterative feedback loop that examines plausible mechanisms and patterns of response at levels ranging from cell membranes to plant populations

  10. Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

    2011-01-01

    Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

  11. Identifying Neurocognitive Decline at 36 Months among HIV-Positive Participants in the CHARTER Cohort Using Group-Based Trajectory Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Josée Brouillette

    Full Text Available While HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment remains common despite the widespread use of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART, there have been relatively few studies investigating the trajectories of neurocognitive change in longitudinal NeuroAIDS studies.To estimate the magnitude and pattern of neurocognitive change over the first 3 years of follow-up using Group-Based Trajectory Analysis (GBTA applied to participants in the longitudinal arm of the CHARTER cohort.The study population consisted of 701 CHARTER participants who underwent neuropsychological (NP testing on at least 2 occasions. Raw test scores on 15 NP measures were modeled using GBTA. Each trajectory was categorized as stable, improved or declined, according to two different criteria for change (whether the magnitude of the estimated change at 36 months differed ≥ 0.5 standard deviations from baseline value or changed by > the standard error of measurement estimated at times 1 and 2. Individuals who declined on one or more NP measures were categorized as decliners.Overall, 111 individuals (15.8% declined on at least one NP test over 36 months, with the vast majority showing decline on a single NP test (93/111-83.8%. The posterior probability of group assignment was high in most participants (71% after only 2 sessions, and in the overwhelming majority of those with 3+ sessions. Heterogeneity of trajectories was the norm rather than the exception. Individuals who declined had, on average, worse baseline NP performance on every test, were older, had a longer duration of HIV infection and more follow-up sessions.The present study identified heterogeneous trajectories over 3 years across 15 NP raw test scores using GBTA. Cognitive decline was observed in only a small subset of this study cohort. Decliners had demographics and HIV characteristics that have been previously associated with cognitive decline, suggesting clinical validity for the method.

  12. Are neonicotinoid insecticides driving declines of widespread butterflies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre S. Gilburn

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been widespread concern that neonicotinoid pesticides may be adversely impacting wild and managed bees for some years, but recently attention has shifted to examining broader effects they may be having on biodiversity. For example in the Netherlands, declines in insectivorous birds are positively associated with levels of neonicotinoid pollution in surface water. In England, the total abundance of widespread butterfly species declined by 58% on farmed land between 2000 and 2009 despite both a doubling in conservation spending in the UK, and predictions that climate change should benefit most species. Here we build models of the UK population indices from 1985 to 2012 for 17 widespread butterfly species that commonly occur at farmland sites. Of the factors we tested, three correlated significantly with butterfly populations. Summer temperature and the index for a species the previous year are both positively associated with butterfly indices. By contrast, the number of hectares of farmland where neonicotinoid pesticides are used is negatively associated with butterfly indices. Indices for 15 of the 17 species show negative associations with neonicotinoid usage. The declines in butterflies have largely occurred in England, where neonicotinoid usage is at its highest. In Scotland, where neonicotinoid usage is comparatively low, butterfly numbers are stable. Further research is needed urgently to show whether there is a causal link between neonicotinoid usage and the decline of widespread butterflies or whether it simply represents a proxy for other environmental factors associated with intensive agriculture.

  13. White ash (Fraxinus americana) decline and mortality: the role of site nutrition and stress history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alejandro A. Royo; Kathleen S. Knight

    2012-01-01

    Over the past century, white ash (Fraxinus americana) populations throughout its range have deteriorated as a result of declining tree health and increased mortality rates. Although co-occurring factors including site nutritional deficiencies and punctuated stress events (e.g., defoliations, drought) are hypothesized to trigger white ash decline,...

  14. A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijn, D.; Raemakers, I.P.

    2008-01-01

    Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem

  15. School-Based Administration of ADHD Drugs Decline, along with Diversion, Theft, and Misuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuPont, Robert L.; Bucher, Richard H.; Wilford, Bonnie B.; Coleman, John J.

    2007-01-01

    Since 2000 researchers have reported a decline in the administration of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications given by school nurses, although no decline has been noted in the incidence of ADHD in school-age populations. Government data for the same period show reduced levels of methylphenidate abuse as measured by its…

  16. Predatory leeches (Hirudinida) may contribute to amphibian declines in the Lassen, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stead Jonathan; Karen Pope

    2010-01-01

    Researchers have documented precipitous declines in Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae) populations in the southern portion of the species' range, in the Lassen region of California. Reasons for the declines, however, have not been elucidated. In addition to common, widespread causes, an understanding of local community interactions may be necessary...

  17. Non-native fish introductions and the reversibility of amphibian declines in the Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland A. Knapp

    2004-01-01

    Amphibians are declining worldwide for a variety of reasons, including habitat alteration, introduction of non-native species, disease, climate change, and environmental contaminants. Amphibians often play important roles in structuring ecosystems, and, as a result, amphibian population declines or extinctions are likely to affect other trophic levels (Matthews and...

  18. Population ecology and conservation status of the last natural population of English yew Taxus baccata in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Magård, Else

    1999-01-01

    English yew Taxus baccata L. has become extinct or rare in many parts of Europe. Here we investigate the status of the only natural population persisting in Denmark. While many other yew populations are declining, the Danish population increased from 2000 in 1998....... This was most likely due to the thinning of the tree stand at this site, as reproductive activity, strobilus production, and recruitment were enhanced at better lit microsites. The declining status of other populations is probably often caused by succession from open woodland to dense forest. The light...... dependency is consistent with the Quaternary history of yew. The sex ratio of the Danish yew population was female-biased, probably due to chance. Yew invaded forest areas neighbouring source populations at rates of 3 m yr−1, but forest management impeded this process....

  19. Longitudinal Modeling of Functional Decline Associated with Pathologic Alzheimer's Disease in Older Persons without Cognitive Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dai; Schultz, Tim; Novak, Gerald P; Baker, Susan; Bennett, David A; Narayan, Vaibhav A

    2018-01-01

    Therapeutic research on Alzheimer's disease (AD) has moved to intercepting the disease at the preclinical phase. Most drugs in late development have focused on the amyloid hypothesis. To understand the magnitude of amyloid-related functional decline and to identify the functional domains sensitive to decline in a preclinical AD population. Data were from the Religious Orders Study and the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Cognitive decline was measured by a modified version of the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite. The trajectories of functional decline, as measured by the instrumental and basic activities of daily living, were longitudinally modeled in 484 participants without cognitive impairment at baseline and having both a final clinical and a postmortem neuropathology assessment of AD. Individuals with different final clinical diagnoses had different trajectories of cognitive and functional decline. Individuals with AD dementia, minor cognitive impairment, and no cognitive impairment had the most, intermediate, and least declines. While individuals with pathologic AD had significantly more cognitive decline over time than those without, the magnitude of difference in functional decline between these two groups was small. Functional domains such as handling finance and handling medications were more sensitive to decline. Demonstrating the functional benefit of an amyloid-targeting drug represents a significant challenge as elderly people experience functional decline due to a wide range of reasons with limited manifestation attributable to AD neuropathology. More sensitive functional scales focusing on the functional domains sensitive to decline in preclinical AD are needed.

  20. Anticholinergic drug use is associated with episodic memory decline in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papenberg, Goran; Bäckman, Lars; Fratiglioni, Laura; Laukka, Erika J; Fastbom, Johan; Johnell, Kristina

    2017-07-01

    Anticholinergic drug use is common in older adults and has been related to increased dementia risk. This suggests that users of these drugs may experience accelerated cognitive decline. So far, however, longitudinal data on this topic are absent and the available evidence is inconclusive with respect to effects on specific cognitive domains due to suboptimal control of confounding variables. We investigated whether anticholinergic medication use is associated with cognitive decline over 6 years in a population-based study of older adults (aged 60-90; n = 1473) without dementia. We found that users (n = 29) declined more on episodic memory over 6 years compared to nonusers (n = 1418). These results were independent of age, sex, education, overall drug intake, physical activity, depression, cardiovascular risk burden, and cardiovascular disease. By contrast, anticholinergic drug use was unrelated to performance in processing speed, semantic memory, short-term memory, verbal fluency, and global cognition (the Mini-Mental-State Examination). Our results suggest that effects of anticholinergics may be particularly detrimental to episodic memory in older adults, which supports the assertion that the cholinergic system plays an important role in episodic memory formation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised accurately detects cognitive decline in Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begeti, Faye; Tan, Adrian Y K; Cummins, Gemma A; Collins, Lucy M; Guzman, Natalie Valle; Mason, Sarah L; Barker, Roger A

    2013-11-01

    Cognitive features, which begin before manifestation of the motor features, are an integral part of Huntington's disease and profoundly affect quality of life. A number of neuropsychological batteries have been used to assess this aspect of the condition, many of which are difficult to administer and time consuming, especially in advanced disease. We, therefore, investigated a simple and practical way to monitor cognition using the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) in 126 manifest Huntington's disease patients, 28 premanifest gene carriers and 21 controls. Using this test, we demonstrated a selective decrease in phonemic, but not semantic, fluency in premanifest participants Cognitive decline in manifest Huntington's disease varied according to disease severity with extensive cognitive decline observed in early-stage Huntington's disease patients, indicating that this would be an optimal stage for interventions designed to halt cognitive decline, and lesser changes in the advanced cases. We next examined cognitive performance in patients prescribed antidopaminergic drugs as these drugs are known to decrease cognition when administered to healthy volunteers. We paradoxically found that these drugs may be beneficial, as early-stage Huntington's disease participants in receipt of them had improved attention and Mini-Mental State Examination scores. In conclusion, this is the first study to test the usefulness of the ACE-R in a Huntington's disease population and demonstrates that this is a brief, inexpensive and practical way to measure global cognitive performance in clinical practice with potential use in clinical trials.

  2. Age-related hearing decline in individuals with and without occupational noise exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Hederstierna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to compare the pattern of age-related hearing decline in individuals with and without self-reported previous occupational noise exposure. This was a prospective, population-based, longitudinal study of individuals aged 70-75 years, from an epidemiological investigation, comprising three age cohorts. In total there were 1013 subjects (432 men and 581 women. Participants were tested with pure tone audiometry, and they answered a questionnaire to provide information regarding number of years of occupational noise exposure. There were no significant differences in hearing decline, at any frequency, for those aged 70-75 years between the noise-exposed (N= 62 men, 22 women and the nonexposed groups (N = 96 men, 158 women. This study supports the additive model of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL and age-related hearing loss (ARHL. The concept of different patterns of hearing decline between persons exposed and not exposed to noise could not be verified.

  3. Failure of pheromone traps in detecting incipient populations of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae): Investigation of two potential contributing factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Progress towards complete eradication of the boll weevil has been delayed in some areas of Texas due to the inconsistent performance of pheromone traps in detecting incipient weevil populations. In 2008 substantial infestations of boll weevils, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, were detected in several c...

  4. Investigation of the WISC-III and WASI in Clinical Child Populations: A Framework for Further Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Wayne C.; Austin, David W.; Reid, David S.

    2007-01-01

    To promote efficient clinical practice, interest has been growing in brief assessment scales to replace full-scale versions in some circumstances. In nonclinical populations, the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI) has substituted for the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--Third Edition (WISC-III). Agreement between these…

  5. An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z; Liu, L

    1988-12-01

    Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

  6. Neotropical Amphibian Declines Affect Stream Ecosystem Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, S.; Pringle, C. M.; Bixby, R. J.; Whiles, M. R.; Lips, K. R.; Brenes, R.; Colon-Gaud, J. C.; Kilham, S.; Hunte-Brown, M.

    2005-05-01

    Global declines of amphibians are well documented, yet effects of these dramatic losses on ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood. As part of a larger collaborative project, we compared two upland Panamanian streams. Both streams are biologically and geologically similar; however, one stream (Fortuna) has recently experienced almost complete extirpation of stream-dwelling frogs, while the other (Cope) still has intact populations. We experimentally excluded tadpoles from localized areas in each stream. We then compared chlorophyll a, algal community composition, ash-free dry mass (AFDM), inorganic matter, and insect assemblages in control and exclusion areas. Additionally, we sampled the natural substrate of both streams monthly for chlorophyll a, algal community composition, AFDM, and inorganic matter. At Cope, chlorophyll a, AFDM, and inorganic matter were greater in areas where tadpoles were excluded than in their presence. Numbers of dominant algal species (e.g., Nupela praecipua and Eunotia siolii) were greater in the exclusion versus control treatments. Monthly sampling of natural substrate indicated higher chlorophyll a and AFDM at Cope compared to Fortuna. Our data suggest that stream-dwelling anuran larvae have significant impacts on algal communities. These results also have implications for predicting the relevance of short-term experimental manipulations to long-term, whole-stream processes.

  7. Species decline: A perspective on extinction, recovery, and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J.W.

    1983-01-01

    This keynote address was presented at the Conference on the Conservation of Endangered Species in Zoological Parks and Aquariums on April 18, 1982 at the National Aquarium in Baltimore. It outlines 1) future trends in the world's environment, resources, and population; 2) factors affecting species decline; 3) reasons for preserving life forms; and 4) techniques, with emphasis on captive propagation, used to assist in species recovery.

  8. Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmboe, Stine Agergaard; Skakkebaek, Niels E.; Juul, Anders

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (T) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in T are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra...

  9. Trajectories of cognitive decline in different types of dementia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, L.L.; van Harten, A.C.; Pijnenburg, Y.A.L.; Koedam, E.L.G.E.; Bouwman, F.H.; Sistermans, N.; Reuling, I.E.W.; Prins, N.D.; Lemstra, A.W.; Scheltens, P.; van der Flier, W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background. To investigate trajectories of cognitive decline in patients with different types of dementia compared to controls in a longitudinal study. Method. In 199 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), 10 with vascular dementia (VaD), 26 with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), 20 with behavioural

  10. A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Injectivity Decline | Odeh ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Injectivity impairment due to invasion of solid suspensions has been studied by several investigators and some modelling approaches have also been reported. Worthy of note is the development of analytical models for internal and external filtration coupled with transition time concept for predicting the overall decline in ...

  11. Depressive symptoms predict slow cognitive decline in mild dementia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janzing, J.G.E.; Naarding, P.; Eling, P.A.T.M.

    2005-01-01

    Depression may be a prognostic marker of subsequent cognitive decline in patients with dementia. Earlier investigations did not find support for this hypothesis, but these considered mainly syndromal depression. In this prospective study, 32 subjects with mild dementia were followed up for 12

  12. Social position and functional decline among non-disabled old men and women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Damsgaard, Mogens Trab; Osler, Merete

    2004-01-01

    material wealth were related to functional decline and death in both men and women, but the patterns differed: housing tenure was related to functional decline and death among the men, while income was related to functional decline and death among the women. The associations were not attenuated when...... adjusted by behavioural factors. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that poor material wealth is associated with functional decline independent of behavioural factors in a selected population of non-disabled older adults. Thus, the cumulative influence of material wealth throughout the life-course cannot...

  13. A retrospective investigation of HLA-B*5801 in hyperuricemia patients in a Han population of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Heng; Yan, Dewen; Zuo, Xin; Liu, Junying; Liu, Wenlan; Zhang, Youming

    2018-05-01

    Hyperuricemia and gout have become increasingly prevalent in China. Allopurinol is an effective urate-lowering therapy, but it has severe side effects. HLA-B*5801 is highly associated with the allopurinol-induced toxic epidermal necrolysis and Stevens-Johnson syndrome. In this retrospective report, we had genotyped HLA-B*5801 in 253 cases of hyperuricemia and gout patients in a Han population in Shenzhen and analyzed the clinical management of medications. We found 30 carriers of the HLA-B*5801 allele in 253 cases of hyperuricemia or gout patients in the population (11.9%). Allopurinol was prescribed in both HLA-B*5801-positive and HLA-B*5801-negative groups. The evaluation of four models with or without genetic screening and management of allopurinol or febuxostat indicated that the HLA-B*5801 screening had significant cost benefit for clinical management. For appropriate management and cost-effectiveness, the HLA-B*5801 allele should be screened in all patients with hyperuricemia and gout in the Chinese population.

  14. Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

    2017-01-01

    Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

  15. Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Lenzi, Jacopo; Fantini, Maria Pia; Ricciardi, Walter; Damiani, Gianfranco

    2017-11-15

    Some studies have analyzed the association of health care systems variables, such as health service resources or expenditures, with amenable mortality, but the association of types of health care systems with the decline of amenable mortality has yet to be studied. The present study examines whether specific health care system types are associated with different time trend declines in amenable mortality from 2000 to 2014 in 22 European OECD countries. A time trend analysis was performed. Using Nolte and McKee's list, age-standardized amenable mortality rates (SDRs) were calculated as the annual number of deaths over the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants. We classified health care systems according to a deductively generated classification by Böhm. This classification identifies three dimensions that are not entirely independent of each other but follow a clear order: the regulation dimension is first, followed by the financing dimension and finally service provision. We performed a hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression analysis on the annual SDRs to determine whether specific health care systems were associated with different SDR trajectories over time. The results showed a clear decline in SDRs in all 22 health care systems between 2000 and 2014 although at different annual changes (slopes). Regression analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the slopes according to provision dimension. Health care systems with a private provision exhibited a slowdown in the decline of amenable mortality over time. It therefore seems that ownership is the most relevant dimension in determining a different pattern of decline in mortality. All countries experienced decreases in amenable mortality between 2000 and 2014; this decline seems to be partially a reflection of health care systems, especially when affected by the provision dimension. If the private ownership is maintained or promoted by health systems, these findings might be

  16. Investigating the Impact of Human Activity on Land Use/Cover Change in China’s Lijiang River Basin from the Perspective of Flow and Type of Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Exploring how human activity impacts land use/cover change (LUCC is a hot research topic in the field of geography and sustainability management. Researchers have primarily used socioeconomic variables to measure human activity. However, the human activity indexes mainly based on socioeconomic variables have a spatial resolution that is coarser than traditional LUCC datasets, which hinders a deep and comprehensive analysis. In view of these problems, we selected China’s Lijiang River Basin as our study area and proposed the use of GPS trajectory data for analyzing the impact of human activity on LUCC from two perspectives: (1 Type of population: we used the kernel density estimation method to extract the spatial distribution of activity intensity of local residents and tourists, investigated their correlation with the LUCC result, and found these two populations have different impacts on each land cover; (2 Flow of population: we used the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN algorithm and a network analysis method to build a flow network of population from raw trajectories, conducted regression analysis with LUCC, and found that the flow of population is an important factor driving LUCC and is sometimes a more important factor than the static distribution of the population. Experimental results validated that the proposed method can be used to uncover the impact mechanism of human activity on LUCC at fine-grained scales and provide more accurate planning and instructions for sustainability management.

  17. Development and decline of upright gait stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eIosa

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Upright gait is a peculiar characteristic of humans that requires the ability to manage upper body dynamic balance while walking, despite the perturbations that are generated by movements of the lower limbs. Most of the studies on upright gait stability have compared young adults and the elderly to determine the effects of aging. In other studies the comparison was between healthy subjects and patients to examine specific pathologies. Fewer researches have also investigated the development of upright gait stability in children.This review discusses these studies in order to provide an overview of this relevant aspect of human locomotion. A clear trend from development to decline of upright gait stability has been depicted across the entire lifespan, from toddlers at first steps to elderly. In old individuals, even if healthy, the deterioration of skeletal muscle, combined with sensorial and cognitive performance, reduces the ability to maintain an upright trunk during walking, increasing the instability and the risk of falls. Further, the pathological causes of altered development or of a sudden loss of gait stability, as well as the environmental influence are investigated. The last part of this review is focused on the control of upper body accelerations during walking, a particularly interesting topic for the recent development of low-cost wearable accelerometers.

  18. Mental Health, Cardiovascular Disease and Declining Economies in British Columbia Mining Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janis Shandro

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between community-level exposure to changes in economic conditions and the incidence and prevalence of mental disorders and cardiovascular disease in 29 resource-based communities (with a focus on mining communities in British Columbia (BC during a period of time marked by an economic downturn (1991–2002 The investigation relied on Labour Force Survey (LFS and Statistics Canada Census data, and health records from the British Columbia Ministry of Health (MoH. Age and sex adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated for each community from 1991 to 2002 and the development of an economic change indicator defined using Census data and industry/government documents allowed for yearly assessment of community-level exposure to economic conditions. The relationship between exposure to economic change and rates of acute and chronic cardiovascular disease and mental disorders across the 29 study communities was investigated using a generalized linear model (stratified by type of community, and adjusted for the effect of the community. Findings indicate an impact on the prevalence rates for acute cardiovascular disease (CVD during periods of economic decline (rate increased by 13.1 cases per 1,000 population, p < 0.0001 as compared with stable periods and bust conditions (rate increased by 30.1 cases per 1,000 population, p < 0.0001 as compared with stable conditions and mental disorders (rate increased by 13.2 cases per 1,000 population, p = 0.0001 in mining communities during declining economic conditions as compared to steady periods of mining employment. This is not observed in other resource-based communities. The paper concludes by highlighting implications for the mining industry to consider as they begin to recognize and commit to mining community health.

  19. Does timing of breeding matter less where the grass is greener? Seasonal declines in breeding performance differ between regions in an endangered endemic raptor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Sophie Garcia-Heras

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The timing of breeding can strongly influence individual breeding performance and fitness. Seasonal declines in breeding parameters have been often documented in birds, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Fewer studies have investigated whether seasonal declines in productivity vary in space, which would have implications for a species’ population dynamics across its distributional range. We report here on variation in the timing of breeding in the Black Harrier (Circus maurus, an endangered and endemic raptor to Southern Africa. We investigated how key breeding parameters (clutch size, nesting success and productivity varied with the timing of breeding, weather conditions (rainfall and temperature and between contrasted regions (coastal vs. interior-mountain. Black Harrier onset of breeding extended over an 8-month period, with a peak of laying between mid-August and end of September. We show a marked seasonal decline in all breeding parameters. Importantly, for clutch size and productivity these seasonal declines differed regionally, being more pronounced in interior-mountain than in coastal regions, where the breeding season was overall shorter. Timing of breeding, clutch size and productivity were also partly explained by weather conditions. In coastal regions, where environmental conditions, in particular rainfall, appear to be less variable, the timing of breeding matters less for breeding output than in interior-mountain regions, and breeding attempts thus occurred over a longer period. The former areas may act as population sources and be key in protecting the long-term population viability of this threatened endemic raptor. This study provides unique evidence for a regionally variable seasonal decline in breeding performance with implications for population biology and conservation.

  20. Apolipoprotein e4 allele and cognitive decline in elderly men

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feskens, E.J.M.; Havekes, L.M.; Kalmijn, S.; Knijff, P. de; Launer, L.J.; Kromhout, D.

    1994-01-01

    Objectives - To determine whether polymorphism of apolipoprotein E - notably, the e4 allele - predicts cognitive deterioration in the general population. Design - Population based cohort investigated in 1990 and in 1993. Setting - Zutphen, the Netherlands. Subjects - Representative cohort of 538