WorldWideScience

Sample records for investigating population declines

  1. Do people fear population decline?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dalen, H.P.; Henkens, C.J.I.M.

    2011-01-01

    This week the world population is projected to reach seven billion. Yet in some countries the prospect of a decline in population is worrying policymakers far more. This columns asks what the people think, focusing on a survey from the Netherlands. It turns out that most people are in favour of

  2. Singapore’s Declining Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ethnic groups work . In addition, they get married later in life and had fewer children. What does a declining population mean for Singapore...other countries. BACKGROUND Since gaining independence, Singapore’s population has grown along with its economy . As Singapore’s gross domestic...in the country mean fewer consumers. Fewer people in the country also means there are less people to support the elderly. As the population ages

  3. Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik P. Van Dalen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

  4. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  5. A method for investigating population declines of migratory birds using stable isotopes: origins of harvested lesser scaup in North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith A Hobson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging.Here we used hydrogen isotopes (deltaD to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999-2000 (n = 412 and 2000-2001 (n = 455. We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, deltaD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of deltaD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual deltaD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys.Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60 degrees N versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography.

  6. A Method for Investigating Population Declines of Migratory Birds Using Stable Isotopes: Origins of Harvested Lesser Scaup in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Keith A.; Wunder, Michael B.; Van Wilgenburg, Steven L.; Clark, Robert G.; Wassenaar, Leonard I.

    2009-01-01

    Background Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging. Methodology/Findings Here we used hydrogen isotopes (δD) to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999–2000 (n = 412) and 2000–2001 (n = 455). We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, δD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of δD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual δD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60°N) versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds) synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography. PMID:19946360

  7. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  8. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  9. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  10. Population Genetic Aspects of Pollinator Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Packer

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed the theory of conservation genetics, with special emphasis on the influence of haplodiploidy and other aspects of bee biology upon conservation genetic parameters. We then investigated the possibility that pollinator decline can be addressed in this way, using two meta-analytical approaches on genetic data from the Hymenoptera and the Lepidoptera. First, we compared levels of heterozygosity between the orders. As has been found previously, the haplodiploid Hymenoptera had markedly lower levels of genetic variation than the Lepidoptera. Bees had even lower levels, and bumble bees, in particular, often seemed almost monomorphic genetically. However, the statistically confounding effects of phylogeny render detailed interpretation of such data difficult. Second, we investigated patterns of gene flow among populations of these insects. Hymenoptera were far more likely to show genetic effects of population fragmentation than are Lepidoptera, even at similar geographic distances between populations. The reduced effective population sizes resulting from haplodiploidy probably contributed to this result. The proportion of species with low levels of gene flow did not vary among the different taxonomic groups within the Hymenoptera.

  11. Desertification: measuring population decline in rural Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawley, M E

    1994-10-01

    "This paper addresses the issue of rural population decline in the Republic of Ireland during the past two decades having regard to size of place and estimated net migration for key age groups. The analysis is pursued at the level of some 160 Rural Districts. The results of the analysis confirm expected relationships between peripheral locations, small population size and a depletion of the young working age groups. The method used, however, permits the links between size of place, population change and the composition of that change to be identified with some precision." excerpt

  12. Declining scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.S.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

    2000-01-01

    The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issuesof concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breedingground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

  13. When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

  14. Quantitative genetic variation in declining plant populations

    OpenAIRE

    Ellmer, Maarten

    2009-01-01

    The ecological and genetic effects of habitat fragmentation are an issue of major concern in current conservation biology. Habitat fragmentation results in smaller habitat areas and as a consequence smaller and more isolated populations. Many habitats have become fragmented through human activities such as forestry and agricultural development. In Sweden, for example, the area of species-rich, semi-natural grasslands has decreased by more than 90% since the 1870s. The aim of this thesis w...

  15. ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

  16. Critical Decline of the Eastern Caribbean Sperm Whale Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gero, Shane; Whitehead, Hal

    2016-01-01

    Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) populations were expected to rebuild following the end of commercial whaling. We document the decline of the population in the eastern Caribbean by tracing demographic changes of well-studied social units. We address hypotheses that, over a ten-year period of dedicated effort (2005-2015), unit size, numbers of calves and/or calving rates have each declined. Across 16 units, the number of adults decreased in 12 units, increased in two, and showed no change in two. The number of adults per unit decreased at -0.195 individuals/yr (95% CI: -0.080 to -0.310; P = 0.001). The number of calves also declined, but the decline was not significant. This negative trend of -4.5% per year in unit size started in about 2010, with numbers being fairly stable until then. There are several natural and anthropogenic threats, but no well-substantiated cause for the decline.

  17. Marine mammal population decline linked to obscured by-catch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Stefan; Robertson, Bruce C; Chilvers, B Louise; Krkošek, Martin

    2017-10-31

    Declines of marine megafauna due to fisheries by-catch are thought to be mitigated by exclusion devices that release nontarget species. However, exclusion devices may instead conceal negative effects associated with by-catch caused by fisheries (i.e., unobserved or discarded by-catch with low postrelease survival or reproduction). We show that the decline of the endangered New Zealand (NZ) sea lion ( Phocarctos hookeri ) is linked to latent levels of by-catch occurring in sub-Antarctic trawl fisheries. Exclusion devices have been used since 2001 but have not slowed or reversed population decline. However, 35% of the variability in NZ sea lion pup production is explained by latent by-catch, and the population would increase without this factor. Our results indicate that exclusion devices can obscure rather than alleviate fishery impacts on marine megafauna. Published under the PNAS license.

  18. Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

    2012-02-01

    Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

  19. Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

  20. European regional population decline and policy responses: three case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galjaard, R.; van Wissen, L.J.G.; van Dam, K.

    2012-01-01

    Universal processes related to the demographic transition to structural low fertility on the one hand, and economic geographic processes of concentration and urbanization on the other lead to regional population decline in most European countries. Due to this universal nature of the underlying

  1. Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchin, Peter; Scheidel, Walter

    2009-10-13

    In times of violence, people tend to hide their valuables, which are later recovered unless the owners had been killed or driven away. Thus, the temporal distribution of unrecovered coin hoards is an excellent proxy for the intensity of internal warfare. We use this relationship to resolve a long-standing controversy in Roman history. Depending on who was counted in the early Imperial censuses (adult males or the entire citizenry including women and minors), the Roman citizen population of Italy either declined, or more than doubled, during the first century BCE. This period was characterized by a series of civil wars, and historical evidence indicates that high levels of sociopolitical instability are associated with demographic contractions. We fitted a simple model quantifying the effect of instability (proxied by hoard frequency) on population dynamics to the data before 100 BCE. The model predicts declining population after 100 BCE. This suggests that the vigorous growth scenario is highly implausible.

  2. Multiple stressor effects in relation to declining amphibian populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Greg L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald; Little, E.

    2003-01-01

    Original research discusses the protocols and approaches to studying the effects of multiple environmental stressors on amphibian populations and gives new perspectives on this complicated subject. This new publication integrates a variety of stressors that can act in concert and may ultimately cause a decline in amphibian populations.Sixteen peer-reviewed papers cover:Toxicity Assessment examines methods, which range from long-established laboratory approaches for evaluating adverse chemical effects to amphibians, to methods that link chemicals in surface waters, sediments, and soils with adverse effects observed among amphibians in the field.Field and Laboratory Studies illustrates studies in the evaluation of multiple stressor effects that may lead to declining amphibian populations. A range of laboratory and field studies of chemicals, such as herbicides, insecticides, chlorinated organic compounds, metals, and complex mixtures are also included.Causal Analysis demonstrates the range of tools currently available for evaluating "cause-effect" relationships between environmental stressors and declining amphibian populations.Audience: This new publication is a must-have for scientists and resource management professionals from diverse fields, including ecotoxicology, chemistry, ecology, field biology, conservation biology, and natural resource management.

  3. Rapid declines of large mammal populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragina, Eugenia V; Ives, A R; Pidgeon, A M; Kuemmerle, T; Baskin, L M; Gubar, Y P; Piquer-Rodríguez, M; Keuler, N S; Petrosyan, V G; Radeloff, V C

    2015-06-01

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that socioeconomic shocks strongly affect wildlife populations, but quantitative evidence is sparse. The collapse of socialism in Russia in 1991 caused a major socioeconomic shock, including a sharp increase in poverty. We analyzed population trends of 8 large mammals in Russia from 1981 to 2010 (i.e., before and after the collapse). We hypothesized that the collapse would first cause population declines, primarily due to overexploitation, and then population increases due to adaptation of wildlife to new environments following the collapse. The long-term Database of the Russian Federal Agency of Game Mammal Monitoring, consisting of up to 50,000 transects that are monitored annually, provided an exceptional data set for investigating these population trends. Three species showed strong declines in population growth rates in the decade following the collapse, while grey wolf (Canis lupus) increased by more than 150%. After 2000 some trends reversed. For example, roe deer (Capreolus spp.) abundance in 2010 was the highest of any period in our study. Likely reasons for the population declines in the 1990s include poaching and the erosion of wildlife protection enforcement. The rapid increase of the grey wolf populations is likely due to the cessation of governmental population control. In general, the widespread declines in wildlife populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union highlight the magnitude of the effects that socioeconomic shocks can have on wildlife populations and the possible need for special conservation efforts during such times. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A Ross; Owen, Stewart F; Peters, James; Zhang, Yong; Soffker, Marta; Paull, Gregory C; Hosken, David J; Wahab, M Abdul; Tyler, Charles R

    2015-03-17

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.

  5. Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

    2001-01-01

    We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

  6. Identifying causes for population decline of the brown hare in agricultural landscapes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz

    In recent decades the brown hare (Lepus europaeus) population in Denmark has undergone a substantial decline, but proximate causes are unknown and little is known about actual densities. In this thesis, hare populations are investigated with respect to age composition and reproductive parameters...... population are caused by reduced juvenile recruitment. Point transect counts are suitable and corrections for detection necessary, when monitoring hare populations, but work is still needed, before the effects of e.g. road avoidance on density estimates are fully clarified....... proportions in game bags have dropped significantly since the 1950ies. Simple matrix population models with variable juvenile recruitment predict the similar population growth rates as actually observed in the annual bag records. The model substantiates the supposition that declines in the Danish hare...

  7. State-space modelling reveals proximate causes of harbour seal population declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthiopoulos, Jason; Cordes, Line; Mackey, Beth; Thompson, David; Duck, Callan; Smout, Sophie; Caillat, Marjolaine; Thompson, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Declines in large vertebrate populations are widespread but difficult to detect from monitoring data and hard to understand due to a multiplicity of plausible biological explanations. In parts of Scotland, harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) have been in decline for 10 years. To evaluate the contributions of different proximate causes (survival, fecundity, observation artefacts) to this decline, we collated behavioural, demographic and population data from one intensively studied population in part of the Moray Firth (north-east Scotland). To these, we fit a state-space model comprising age-structured dynamics and a detailed account of observation errors. After accounting for culling (estimated by our model as 14% of total mortality), the main driver of the historical population decline was a decreasing trend in survival of young individuals combined with (previously unrecognised) low levels of pupping success. In more recent years, the model provides evidence for considerable increases in breeding success and consistently high levels of adult survival. However, breeding success remains the most volatile demographic component of the population. Forecasts from the model indicate a slow population recovery, providing cautious support for recent management measures. Such investigations of the proximate causes of population change (survival, fecundity and observation errors) provide valuable short-term support for the management of population declines, helping to focus future data collection on those ultimate causal mechanisms that are not excluded by the demographic evidence. The contribution of specific ultimate drivers (e.g. shooting mortality or competitors) can also be quantified by including them as covariates to survival or fecundity.

  8. Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

    2018-01-22

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates

  9. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia

    2016-10-20

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  10. Estimation of contemporary effective population size and population declines using RAD sequence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunziata, Schyler O; Weisrock, David W

    2018-03-01

    Large genomic data sets generated with restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), in combination with demographic inference methods, are improving our ability to gain insights into the population history of species. We used a simulation approach to examine the potential for RADseq data sets to accurately estimate effective population size (N e ) over the course of stable and declining population trends, and we compare the ability of two methods of analysis to accurately distinguish stable from steadily declining populations over a contemporary time scale (20 generations). Using a linkage disequilibrium-based analysis, individual sampling (i.e., n ≥ 30) had the greatest effect on N e estimation and the detection of population size declines, with declines reliably detected across scenarios ~10 generations after they began. Coalescent-based inference required fewer sampled individuals (i.e., n = 15), and instead was most influenced by the size of the SNP data set, with 25,000-50,000 SNPs required for accurate detection of population trends and at least 20 generations after decline began. The number of samples available and targeted number of RADseq loci are important criteria when choosing between these methods. Neither method suffered any apparent bias due to the effects of allele dropout typical of RAD data. With an understanding of the limitations and biases of these approaches, researchers can make more informed decisions when designing their sampling and analyses. Overall, our results reveal that demographic inference using RADseq data can be successfully applied to infer recent population size change and may be an important tool for population monitoring and conservation biology.

  11. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  12. POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

    1997-01-01

    Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

  13. Avian blood parasite infection during the non-breeding season: an overlooked issue in declining populations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Pathogens and parasites can have major impacts on host population dynamics, both through direct mortality and via indirect effects. Both types of effect may be stronger in species whose populations are already under pressure. We investigated the potential for blood parasites to impact upon their hosts at the immunological, physiological and population level during the non-breeding season using a declining population of yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella as a model. Results Yellowhammers infected by Haemoproteus spp. showed both a reduced heterophil to lymphocyte (H:L) ratio, and an elevated standardised white blood cell (WBC) count compared to uninfected birds, indicating an immunological response to infection. Infected birds had shorter wings during the first winter of sampling but not during the second, colder, winter; survival analysis of 321 birds sampled across four winters indicated that increased wing length conferred a survival advantage. Conclusions We suggest that the potential impacts of blood parasite infections on over-wintering birds may have been underestimated. Further research should consider the potential impacts of sub-clinical parasite infections on the dynamics of vulnerable populations, and we suggest using declining populations as model systems within which to investigate these relationships as well as examining interactions between sub-clinical disease and other environmental stressors. JEL Code Q5 PMID:24011390

  14. Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Jason M; Diefenbach, Duane R

    2014-06-01

    Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter-area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m(2). Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter-area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland (x = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the

  15. Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Jason M.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2014-01-01

    Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter–area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m2. Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter–area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland ( = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the

  16. CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL POPULATION DECLINE FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haartsen, Tialda; Van Wissen, Leo

    During the past few years, the Dutch education system has been confronted with a sharp decline in the number of pupils. Especially in rural villages, inhabitants fear for the closure of their local primary school, which is perceived as a very negative development for local village life. This paper

  17. Reliability of genetic bottleneck tests for detecting recent population declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peery, M. Zachariah; Kirby, Rebecca; Reid, Brendan N.; Stoelting, Ricka; Doucet-Beer, Elena; Robinson, Stacie; Vasquez-Carrillo, Catalina; Pauli, Jonathan N.; Palsboll, Per J.

    The identification of population bottlenecks is critical in conservation because populations that have experienced significant reductions in abundance are subject to a variety of genetic and demographic processes that can hasten extinction. Genetic bottleneck tests constitute an appealing and

  18. Declines of greater and lesser scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

    2000-01-01

    The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issues of concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breeding-ground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

  19. Diagnosing mechanisms of decline and planning for recovery of an endangered brown bear (Ursus arctos population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Chapron

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The usual paradigm for translocations is that they should not take place in declining populations until the causes(s of the decline has been reversed. This approach sounds intuitive, but may not apply in cases where population decline is caused by behavioral or demographic mechanisms that could only be reversed by translocation itself. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed a decade of field data for Pyrenean brown bears (Ursus arctos from two small populations: the growing Central population--created from a previous translocation and the endemic Western population--believed to be declining because of excessive human-caused mortality. We found that adult survival rates for both populations were as high as those observed for most other protected brown bear populations. However, the Western population had much lower reproductive success than the Central population. Adult breeding sex ratio was male-biased in the Western population and female-biased in the Central population. Our results exclude high anthropogenic mortality as a cause for population decline in the West but support low reproductive success, which could result from sexually selected infanticide induced by a male-biased adult sex ratio or inbreeding depression. Using a stochastic demographic model to compute how many bears should be released to ensure viability, we show that the Western population could recover provided adequate numbers of new females are translocated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We suggest that a translocation could take place, even if the decline has not yet been reversed, if the translocation itself removes the biological mechanisms behind the decline. In our case, the ultimate cause of low reproductive success remained unknown (infanticide or inbreeding, but our proposed translocation strategies should eliminate the proximate cause (low reproductive success of the decline and ensure population recovery and viability.

  20. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable landscape management; traditional ecological management. Abstract. In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly ...

  1. Monitoring low density populations: a perspective on what level of population decline we can truly detect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lurz, P. W. W.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of mammal species is an important part in detecting changes in their status. Efforts are based on a variety of direct and indirect methods and many low density populations are monitored through field signs. We present data on the endangered European red squirrel from Kidland Forest in the UK. We used cone transects to both record changes in seed availability and to monitor population trends. We examined the difficulty of accurately detecting population change when populations are low and field signs are patchily distributed. Current efforts would be sufficient to detect significant population declines of 50-75% in years with a modest squirrel population but not when they fall below one squirrel for every 20 ha of forest. The findings emphasise that monitoring aims have to be clearly defined with an awareness and understanding of what level of change the adopted methodological approach can reliably detect. We propose that mammal monitoring schemes need to be based on a pilot scheme to determine effect size and planned accordingly.

  2. Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

    The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

  3. Is Declining malaria vector population in Africa a result of intervention Measures or sampling tools inefficiency?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliningaya Kweka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent entomological surveys have shown a declining trend of malaria vector population in sub-Saharan Africa and the observation have beenassociated with the scale-up and intensive use of malaria intervention measures such as insecticides treated nets and insecticide residual sprays.However, little is known on the contribution of the mosquito sampling tools inefficiency on the declining trends of malaria vector population. Inthis commentary paper, we explore the possibility of contribution of mosquito sampling tools’ inefficiency to the observed declining trends ofmalaria vector population in Africa.

  4. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Biodiversity; global change; globalization; population and land use; sustainable landscape management; traditional ecological management ... biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for ...... the upland central region of Mexico, as a response to.

  5. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human ... rise in the world population which started off at a modest rate of under 0⋅5% rose to about .... beings since a variety of other factors such as trade, technology and consumption ...

  6. Nigeria's Population Policy and Future Fertility Decline | Mba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Paramount among these is the intention to reduce total fertility rate (TFR) to 4, raise the use of family planning methods to 80 per cent, and raise mean age at first marriage to 18 years, by the year 2000. However ... It is, therefore, needful to revisit the demographic targets of the population policy of Nigeria. Key Words: Nigeria ...

  7. Population and colony-level determinants of tertiary sex ratio in the declining barn swallow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    Full Text Available Sex ratio of adults (tertiary sex ratio, TSR is a major feature of animal populations with consequences for their behaviour, genetic structure and viability. Spatial and temporal variation in TSR occurs within species but the mechanisms behind it are poorly understood. In this long-term study of a declining population of a socially monogamous, colonial, migratory bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, we first analyzed population-level variation in TSR ( =  proportion of males of yearlings at sexual maturation in relation to ecological conditions as gauged by annual survival rate of adults. TSR was male-biased both among yearlings and older individuals, but male bias of yearlings was more pronounced after years with larger decline in adult survival. Thus, male offspring were less susceptible to the adverse ecological conditions that cause increased mortality. Dispersal and settling site decisions can have major consequences on fitness via the effects of local TSR on mating and sperm competition. Breeding barn swallows are highly philopatric while natal dispersal is high and, together with mortality, is the main determinant of colony TSR. We thus also investigated the mechanisms of breeding colony choice by yearlings and found that TSR of new-settlers in a given colony and year was negatively predicted by TSR of returning, early arriving older individuals in that year, but not by overall TSR at the colony in the previous year. This suggests that in our male-biased population new-settler males respond to local TSR upon arrival to choose the sites with larger breeding opportunities. Hence, variation in ecological conditions as reflected by adult survival can shift the TSR of individuals recruiting into a local population, with potentially various demographic consequences. However, breeding site choice based on TSR tends to homogenize TSR at a population level likely by facilitating settling of dispersing males in colonies with less male

  8. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  9. Declines in moth populations stress the need for conserving dark nights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langevelde, van Frank; Braamburg-Annegarn, Marijke; Huigens, Martinus E.; Groendijk, Rob; Poitevin, Olivier; Deijk, van Jurriën R.; Ellis, Willem N.; Grunsven, van Roy H.A.; Vos, de Rob; Vos, Rutger A.; Franzén, Markus; WallisDeVries, Michiel F.

    2018-01-01

    Given the global continuous rise, artificial light at night is often considered a driving force behind moth population declines. Although negative effects on individuals have been shown, there is no evidence for effects on population sizes to date. Therefore, we compared population trends of Dutch

  10. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  11. Declines in moth populations stress the need for conserving dark nights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Langevelde, Frank; Braamburg-Annegarn, Marijke; Huigens, Martinus E; Groendijk, Rob; Poitevin, Olivier; van Deijk, Jurriën R; Ellis, Willem N; van Grunsven, Roy H A; de Vos, Rob; Vos, Rutger A; Franzén, Markus; WallisDeVries, Michiel F

    2018-03-01

    Given the global continuous rise, artificial light at night is often considered a driving force behind moth population declines. Although negative effects on individuals have been shown, there is no evidence for effects on population sizes to date. Therefore, we compared population trends of Dutch macromoth fauna over the period 1985-2015 between moth species that differ in phototaxis and adult circadian rhythm. We found that moth species that show positive phototaxis or are nocturnally active have stronger negative population trends than species that are not attracted to light or are diurnal species. Our results indicate that artificial light at night is an important factor in explaining declines in moth populations in regions with high artificial night sky brightness. Our study supports efforts to reduce the impacts of artificial light at night by promoting lamps that do not attract insects and reduce overall levels of illumination in rural areas to reverse declines of moth populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Chronic wasting disease drives population decline of white-tailed deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant; Lindzey, Frederick G.; Cook, Walter; Kreeger, Terry J.; Grogan, Ronald; Cornish, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

  13. Trapped in the extinction vortex? Strong genetic effects in a declining vertebrate population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larsson Mikael

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity are expected to increase the extinction risk of small populations, but detailed tests in natural populations are scarce. We combine long-term population and fitness data with those from two types of molecular markers to examine the role of genetic effects in a declining metapopulation of southern dunlins Calidris alpina schinzii, an endangered shorebird. Results The decline is associated with increased pairings between related individuals, including close inbreeding (as revealed by both field observations of parentage and molecular markers. Furthermore, reduced genetic diversity seems to affect individual fitness at several life stages. Higher genetic similarity between mates correlates negatively with the pair's hatching success. Moreover, offspring produced by related parents are more homozygous and suffer from increased mortality during embryonic development and possibly also after hatching. Conclusions Our results demonstrate strong genetic effects in a rapidly declining population, emphasizing the importance of genetic factors for the persistence of small populations.

  14. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.; Packer, Craig

    2015-01-01

    At a regional scale, lion populations in West, Central, and East Africa are likely to suffer a projected 50% decline over the next two decades, whereas lion populations are only increasing in southern Africa. Many lion populations are either now gone or expected to disappear within the next few decades to the extent that the intensively managed populations in southern Africa may soon supersede the iconic savannah landscapes in East Africa as the most successful sites for lion conservation. Th...

  15. Declines in migrant shorebird populations from a winter-quarter perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Robert E; Kolberg, Holger; Braby, Rod; Erni, Birgit

    2015-06-01

    Many long-distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state-space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state-space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long-distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short-distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State-space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2014-01-01

    Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

  17. Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

  18. Life-history traits and population decline of the Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrusin the Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghesso, C; Riginella, E; La Mesa, M; Donato, F; Mazzoldi, C

    2013-11-01

    This study investigated demographic structure and reproductive characteristics of the Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus, in relation to landing trends in the northern-central Adriatic Sea. Results highlighted the occurrence of only small-sized and young-age individuals, and a marked decline from the 1990s to the present in maximum age (from 8 to 3 years) and total length (L(T); from 420 to 360 mm). Fecundity ranged between 40,000 and 190,000 eggs, and was related to female L(T). High levels of atresia implied lower values of actual fecundity. Sexual maturity was attained by 72·8% of individuals in their first year of life at 200 mm. The reduction in maximum L(T) resulted in a marked decline in the population egg production, while the reduction in maximum age implied that females participated in fewer spawning events. © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  19. Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam C Banks

    Full Text Available Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing, as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

  20. Glutathione S-transferase genotypes modify lung function decline in the general population: SAPALDIA cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ackermann-Liebrich Ursula

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the environmental and genetic risk factors of accelerated lung function decline in the general population is a first step in a prevention strategy against the worldwide increasing respiratory pathology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Deficiency in antioxidative and detoxifying Glutathione S-transferase (GST gene has been associated with poorer lung function in children, smokers and patients with respiratory diseases. In the present study, we assessed whether low activity variants in GST genes are also associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general adult population. Methods We examined with multiple regression analysis the association of polymorphisms in GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 genes with annual decline in FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 during 11 years of follow-up in 4686 subjects of the prospective SAPALDIA cohort representative of the Swiss general population. Effect modification by smoking, gender, bronchial hyperresponisveness and age was studied. Results The associations of GST genotypes with FEV1, FVC, and FEF25–75 were comparable in direction, but most consistent for FEV1. GSTT1 homozygous gene deletion alone or in combination with GSTM1 homozygous gene deletion was associated with excess decline in FEV1 in men, but not women, irrespective of smoking status. The additional mean annual decline in FEV1 in men with GSTT1 and concurrent GSTM1 gene deletion was -8.3 ml/yr (95% confidence interval: -12.6 to -3.9 relative to men without these gene deletions. The GSTT1 effect on the FEV1 decline comparable to the observed difference in FEV1 decline between never and persistent smoking men. Effect modification by gender was statistically significant. Conclusion Our results suggest that genetic GSTT1 deficiency is a prevalent and strong determinant of accelerated lung function decline in the male general population.

  1. Waist Circumference, Not Body Mass Index, Is Associated with Renal Function Decline in Korean Population: Hallym Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyunju; Quan, Shan Ai; Jeong, Jin-Young; Jang, Soong-Nang; Lee, Jung Eun; Kim, Dong-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective investigation of obesity and renal function decline in Asia is sparse. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with renal function decline in a prospective study of Korean population. Methods A total of 454 participants who had baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels of more than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in Hallym Aging Study (HAS) were included and followed for 6 years. Renal function decline was defined as follows: (1) an eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 82 cases); (2) an eGFR decrease of 20% or greater (n = 87 cases) at follow-up; (3) an eGFR decrease of 20% greater at follow-up or eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 91 cases); and (4) an eGFR 95 cm in men or >90 cm in women with ≤90 cm in men or ≤85 cm in women, ORs (95% CIs) ranged from 2.31 (1.14–4.69) to 2.78 (1.19–6.50) for the 4 definitions of renal function decline (all p-values for trend Korean population. Our results provide important evidence that simple measurement of central fat deposition rather than BMI could predict decline in renal function in Korean population. PMID:23536858

  2. Urban decline within the region: Understanding the intra-regional differentiation in urban population development in the declining regions Saarland and Southern-Limburg

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekveld, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    Urban decline, urban shrinkage and population decline are a few terms which describe the transformation processes currently going on in many cities and regions throughout the world. We are beginning to understand the driving forces of these urban transformation processes - such as structural

  3. Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

    2009-01-01

    Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  4. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

    2018-04-01

    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  5. Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

    2015-12-01

    We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

  6. A multispecies test of source-sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs, Julie A; Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H; Wilsey, Chad B; Monroe, Kira C; Aldridge, Cameron L

    2017-11-29

    For species at risk of decline or extinction in source-sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site- or habitat-specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source-sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high-output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source-sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data-rich source-sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short-term regional persistence. Because source-sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births

  7. Decline of recent seabirds inferred from a composite 1000-year record of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Wu, Libin; Sun, Liguang; Zhao, Jinjun; Chen, Lin

    2016-10-01

    Based on three ornithogenic sediment profiles and seabird subfossils therein from the Xisha Islands, South China Sea, the relative population size of seabirds over the past 1000 years was reconstructed using reflectance spectrum. Here we present an apparent increase and subsequent decline of seabirds on these islands in the South China Sea. Seabird populations peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400-1850 AD), implying that the cool climate during the LIA appears to have been more favorable to seabirds on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Climate change partly explains the recent decrease in seabird populations over the past 150 years, but the significant decline and almost complete disappearance thereof on most of the Xisha Islands is probably attributable to human disturbance. Our study reveals the increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on seabird population in recent times.

  8. Population decline of the little owl (Athene noctua scop.) in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šálek, Martin; Schröpfer, L.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 3 (2008), s. 527-534 ISSN 1505-2249 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Little Owl * Athene noctua * population decline Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.443, year: 2008

  9. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  10. Pesticide Distributions and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs, Rana Muscosa and Rana Sierrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospherically deposited pesticides from the intensively cultivated Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the frogs Rana muscosa and Rana sierrae at high elevation in th...

  11. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

    OpenAIRE

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in...

  12. [Factors Associated with Cognitive Decline in a Population Less than 65 Years Old. A Systematic Review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Acevedo, Daniel Camilo; Henao, Eliana; Tirado, Victoria; Muñoz, Claudia; Giraldo Arango, Diana; Lopera Restrepo, Francisco; Jaimes Barragán, Fabián

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive decline could begin 20 years before the diagnosis of dementia. Besides age, several factors related to medical, socioeconomic, and behavioral and genetic condition may be associated with cognitive decline. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize evidence on the risk and protective factors for cognitive decline in people under 65 years old. A systematic review was conducted using a search strategy in MEDLINE and Embase, including longitudinal studies to analyze the effect of protective or risk factors on cognitive decline in a population under 65 years old. A total of 22 studies were included in this review. Factors such as diabetes, hyperinsulinemia, overweight or obesity, metabolic syndrome, education, physical activity, cognitive stimulation, marital status and diet, could be related to cognitive decline before 65 years of age. Cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle conditions may be associated with cognitive decline before 65 years of age. However, the quality of the evidence was low. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  13. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melia T DeVivo

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus, Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni, and moose (Alces alces shirasi in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ. Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  14. Population decline in the Delta caribou herd with reference to other Alaskan herds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg et al.

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available After growing continuously for nearly 15 years, the Delta caribou herd began to decline in 1989. Most other Interior Alaskan herds also began declining. In the Delta herd, and in other herds, the declines were caused primarily by high summer mortality of calves and increased natural mortality of adult females. Other minor causes included increased winter mortality of calves, and reduced parturition rates of 3-year-old and older females. The decline in the Delta herd also coincided with increased wolf (Canis lupus numbers, winters with deeper than normal snow, and warm summers. Mean body weight of annual samples of 10-month-old female calves was consistently low during the decline. Except in some of the smallest Interior Alaskan herds, we conclude that evidence for population regulation in Alaskan caribou is weak, and that herds are likely to fluctuate within a wide range of densities due to complex interactions of predation and weather. Unless wolf numbers are influenced by man, the size of a caribou herd in a given year is likely to be largely a function of its size during the previous population low and the number of years of favorable weather in the interim.

  15. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-07-25

    The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high-even in "species of low concern." In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a "biological annihilation" to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.

  16. Effect of Early Referral to Specialist in Dementia on Institutionalization and Functional Decline: Findings from a Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimouguet, Clément; Le-Goff, Mélanie; Rizzuto, Debora; Berr, Claudine; Leffondré, Karen; Pérès, Karine; Dartigues, Jean FranÇois; Helmer, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Although early diagnosis has been hypothesized to benefit both patients and caregivers, until now studies evaluating the effect of early dementia diagnosis are lacking. To investigate the influence of early specialist referral for dementia on the risk of institutionalization and functional decline in Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Incident dementia cases were screened in a prospective population-based cohort, the Three-City Study, and initial specialist consultation for cognitive complaint was assessed at dementia diagnosis. Proportional hazard regression and illness-death models were used to test the association between specialist referral and, respectively, institutionalization and functional decline. Only one third of the incident individuals with dementia had consulted a specialist for cognitive problems early (36%). After adjustment on potential confounders (including cognitive and functional decline) and competing risk of death, participants who had consulted a specialist early in the disease course presented a higher rate of being institutionalized than those who did not (Hazard Ratio = 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09- 3.64). But early specialist referral was not associated with further functional decline (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.71- 1.67). Early specialist referral in dementia is associated with increased risk of institutionalization but not with functional decline in ADL. These findings suggest that early care referral in dementia may be a marker of concern for patients and/or caregivers; subsequent medical and social care could be suboptimal or inappropriate to allow patients to stay longer at home.

  17. Emerging infectious disease leads to rapid population declines of common British birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Robinson

    Full Text Available Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period.

  18. Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

    2010-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869

  19. Exposure of harbour seals Phoca vitulina to Brucella in declining populations across Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershaw, Joanna L; Stubberfield, Emma J; Foster, Geoffrey; Brownlow, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa J; Perrett, Lorraine L

    2017-09-20

    Since 2000 there has been a major decline in the abundance of Scottish harbour seals Phoca vitulina. The causes of the decline remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to establish the extent to which the seals in the regions of greatest decline have been exposed to Brucella, a bacterial pathogen that causes reproductive failure in terrestrial mammalian hosts. Tissues from dead seals collected between 1992 and 2013 were cultured for Brucella (n = 150). Serum samples collected from live capture-released seals (n = 343) between 1997 and 2012 were tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal plate agglutination test (RBT) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). In total, 16% of seals cultured had Brucella isolated from one or more tissues, but there were no pathological signs of infection. The cELISA results were more sensitive than the RBT results, showing that overall 25.4% of seals were seropositive, with the highest seroprevalence in juveniles. As there was no evidence of either a higher seroprevalence or higher circulating antibody levels in seropositive animals in the areas with the greatest declines, it was concluded that Brucella infection is likely not a major contributing factor to recent declines. However, the consistently high proportion of seals exposed to Brucella indicates possible endemicity in these populations, likely due to B. pinnipedialis, which has demonstrated a preference for pinniped hosts. Importantly, given the close proximity between seals, humans and livestock in many areas, there is the potential for cross-species infections.

  20. Attributing mortality among drivers of population decline in Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. E.; Miller, M. W.

    2012-06-01

    Acropora palmata populations have experienced steep declines over the past 30 years. Although numerous culprits are recognized, their relative contributions to the decline are poorly quantified, making it difficult to prioritize effective conservation measures. In 2004, a demographic monitoring program was implemented in the Florida Keys (USA), aimed at determining the relative importance of various stressors affecting A. palmata. A subset of randomly selected A. palmata colonies within 15 fore-reef plots was tagged and surveyed three to four times per year over 7 years. Colony size, live tissue, prevalence of disease, snail ( Coralliophila abbreviata) predation, physical damage and other conditions were assessed at each survey. The estimated effect of each condition causing recent mortality was ranked, and together, these parameters were used to attribute the population-level tissue loss associated with each condition. In addition, all new colonies in the study plots were counted and assessed annually in order to track trends in total colony count and live tissue abundance. Between 2004 and 2010, the study population has shown more than 50% decline in live area from three main conditions: fragmentation, disease and snail predation. Approximately half of this decline occurred during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season from which recovery has been minimal. Meanwhile, colony abundance has shown gradual decline throughout the study. Snail predation was the most prevalent condition. However, it ranked third in attributed tissue loss, behind breakage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season, and disease. Thermal bleaching of A. palmata was not observed during this study. Because mortality continues to outpace recruitment and growth, intervention to ameliorate losses to the more manageable threats including predation and breakage could result in substantial conservation of live tissue, buying time for the abatement of less tractable threats to A. palmata

  1. Diclofenac residues as the cause of vulture population decline in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oaks, J.L.; Gilbert, M.; Virani, M.Z.; Watson, R.T.; Meteyer, C.U.; Rideout, B.A.; Shivaprasad, H.L.; Ahmed, S.; Chaudhry, M.J.I.; Arshad, M.; Mahmood, S.; Ali, A.; Khan, A.A.

    2004-01-01

    The Oriental white-backed vulture (OWBV; Gyps bengalensis) was once one of the most common raptors in the Indian subcontinent. A population decline of >95%, starting in the 1990s, was first noted at Keoladeo National Park, India. Since then, catastrophic declines, also involving Gyps indicus and Gyps tenuirostris, have continued to be reported across the subcontinent. Consequently these vultures are now listed as critically endangered by BirdLife International. In 2000, the Peregrine Fund initiated its Asian Vulture Crisis Project with the Ornithological Society of Pakistan, establishing study sites at 16 OWBV colonies in the Kasur, Khanewal and Muzaffargarha??Layyah Districts of Pakistan to measure mortality at over 2,400 active nest sites5. Between 2000 and 2003, high annual adult and subadult mortality (5a??86%) and resulting population declines (34a??95%) (ref. 5 and M.G., manuscript in preparation) were associated with renal failure and visceral gout. Here, we provide results that directly correlate residues of the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac with renal failure. Diclofenac residues and renal disease were reproduced experimentally in OWBVs by direct oral exposure and through feeding vultures diclofenac-treated livestock. We propose that residues of veterinary diclofenac are responsible for the OWBV decline.

  2. Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arno Thomaes

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for understanding and countering its current loss. However, monitoring of many species is hindered by their difficult detection due to crepuscular activity, hidden phases of the life cycle, short activity period and low population density. Few statistical power analyses of declining trends have been published for terrestrial invertebrates. Consequently, no knowledge exists of the success rate of monitoring elusive invertebrates. Here data from monitoring transects of the European stag beetle, Lucanus cervus, is used to investigate whether the population trend of this elusive species can be adequately monitored. Data from studies in UK, Switzerland and Germany were compiled to parameterize a simulation model explaining the stag beetle abundance as a function of temperature and seasonality. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the effort needed to detect a population abundance decline of 1%/year over a period of 12 years. To reveal such a decline, at least 240 1-hour transect walks on 40 to 100 transects need to be implemented in weekly intervals during warm evenings. It is concluded that monitoring of stag beetles is feasible and the effort is not greater than that which has been found for other invertebrates. Based on this example, it is assumed that many other elusive species with similar life history traits can be monitored with moderate efforts. As saproxylic invertebrates account for a large share of the forest biodiversity, although many are elusive, it is proposed that at least some flagship species are included in monitoring programmes.

  3. Late Holocene Decline of Beech Populations in the Central Great Lakes Region: Drought- Induced Vegetation Change in a Humid Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, R. K.; Jackson, S. T.; Taylor, M.; Pendall, E.; Sousa, V. A.

    2007-12-01

    A large decline in beech populations ( Fagus grandifolia) has been well-documented from pollen records in southeastern Michigan and Southern Ontario between 1000 and 600 BP. These records reveal that declines in beech pollen were generally associated with increases in oak ( Quercus) and pine ( Pinus). The beech decline probably extended eastward into western Pennsylvania and New York, although beech populations in Upper Michigan remained unaffected or even expanded during this time period. The causes of these forest changes and their spatial patterning is not completely understood, although they have been variously attributed to anthropogenic disturbance, climatic cooling, or drought. Recent paleoclimate evidence from the region indicates that the most severe droughts of the last 2000 years occurred between 1000 and 700 BP. However, direct attribution of drought as a cause of the decline has been problematic because of uncertainties associated with comparison of radiocarbon-dated chronologies. We have conducted tandem investigations of pollen, charcoal, hydroclimate proxies (testate amoebae, humification), and a temperature proxy (d18O of Sphagnum cellulose) from the archives contained in three Sphagnum-dominated peatlands of the region. Two of these peatlands were located within the region of the beech decline (eastern, lower Michigan) and the other was outside the decline region (Upper Michigan). Our results reveal that a series of large droughts, likely the combined result of decreased summer precipitation and warm temperatures, were associated with the beech decline. Large wildfires were also associated with the droughts. Neither droughts nor beech declines were recorded in Upper Michigan. High-resolution analysis of beech pollen and hydroclimate proxies at sites that experienced the droughts reveals complex dynamics at multidecadal timescales between 1000-700 BP, with large fluctuations in beech pollen, available moisture, and charcoal concentrations. Our

  4. Population Decline in Polish and Czech Cities during Post-socialism? Looking Behind the Official Statistics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Steinführer, A.; Bierzynski, A.; Grossmann, K.; Haase, A.; Kabisch, S.; Klusáček, Petr

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 11 (2010), s. 2325-2346 ISSN 0042-0980 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300860903 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : urban shrinkage * population decline * inner city Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 1.513, year: 2010 http://usj.sagepub.com/content/47/11/2325.full.pdf+html

  5. Population-specific demographic estimates provide insights into declines of Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

    2007-01-01

    Many North American prairie bird populations have recently declined, and the causes of these declines remain largely unknown. To determine whether population limitation occurs during breeding, we evaluated the stability of a population of prairie birds using population-specific values for fecundity and postfledging survival. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 67 female Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys) to determine annual fecundity and evaluate contributing factors such as nest survival and breeding response (number of breeding attempts and dispersal). Collectively, 67 females built 112 nests (1.67 ± 0.07 nests female−1 season−1; range: 1–3); 34 were second nests and 11 were third nests. Daily nest survival estimates were similar for initial and later nests with overall nest survival (DSR19) of 30.7% and 31.7%, respectively. Nest predation was the most common cause of failure (92%). Capture and radiomarking of females did not affect nest survival. Lark Bunting dispersal probabilities increased among females that fledged young from initial nests and females that lost their original nests late in the season. Conservative and liberal estimates of mean annual fecundity were 0.96 ±0.11 and 1.24 ± 0.09 female offspring per female, respectively. Given the fecundity and juvenile-survival estimates for this population, annual adult survival values of 71–77% are necessary to achieve a stable population. Because adult survival of prairie passerines ranges between 55% and 65%, this study area may not be capable of sustaining a stable population in the absence of immigration. We contrast our population assessment with one that assumes indirect values of fecundity and juvenile survival. To elucidate limiting factors, estimation of population-specific demographic parameters is desirable. We present an approach for selecting species and areas for evaluation of population stability.

  6. Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

    2017-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

  7. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-02-10

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

  8. Identifying causes for population decline of the brown hare in agricultural landscapes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Trine-Lee Wincentz

    in relation to habitat and phenotype, and point transect counts are evaluated in assessing hare densities. High spatial variation in post-natal survival of offspring is observed. Some variation in the demographic and phenotypic (size, weight) parameters is attributable to habitat composition. The juvenile...... proportions in game bags have dropped significantly since the 1950ies. Simple matrix population models with variable juvenile recruitment predict the similar population growth rates as actually observed in the annual bag records. The model substantiates the supposition that declines in the Danish hare...... population are caused by reduced juvenile recruitment. Point transect counts are suitable and corrections for detection necessary, when monitoring hare populations, but work is still needed, before the effects of e.g. road avoidance on density estimates are fully clarified....

  9. A plant toxin mediated mechanism for the lag in snowshoe hare population recovery following cyclic declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bryant, John P.; Liu, Rongsong; Gourley, Stephen A.; Krebs, Charles J; Reichardt, Paul B

    2015-01-01

    A necessary condition for a snowshoe hare population to cycle is reduced reproduction after the population declines. But the cause of a cyclic snowshoe hare population's reduced reproduction during the low phase of the cycle, when predator density collapses, is not completely understood. We propose that moderate-severe browsing by snowshoe hares upon preferred winter-foods could increase the toxicity of some of the hare's best winter-foods during the following hare low, with the result being a decline in hare nutrition that could reduce hare reproduction. We used a combination of modeling and experiments to explore this hypothesis. Using the shrub birch Betula glandulosa as the plant of interest, the model predicted that browsing by hares during a hare cycle peak, by increasing the toxicity B. glandulosa twigs during the following hare low, could cause a hare population to cycle. The model's assumptions were verified with assays of dammarane triterpenes in segments of B. glandulosa twigs and captive hare feeding experiments conducted in Alaska during February and March 1986. The model's predictions were tested with estimates of hare density and measurements of B. glandulosa twig growth made at Kluane, Yukon from 1988–2008. The empirical tests supported the model's predictions. Thus, we have concluded that a browsing-caused increase in twig toxicity that occurs during the hare cycle's low phase could reduce hare reproduction during the low phase of the hare cycle.

  10. Fat mass gain predicts estimated GFR decline in a relatively healthy Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyun, Young Youl; Kim, Hyang; Lee, Kyu Beck

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that obesity is a risk factor for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relationship between fat mass directly measured by bioimpedance analysis and eGFR is not well known. We analyzed 21,859 participants without CKD at baseline who underwent two health checkups at a 5-year interval during 2002-2009. Fat mass was measured by Inbody 3.0 (Biospace, Seoul, Korea). eGFR decline was defined as eGFR 1.2 kg). After 5 years, 246 cases of eGFR decline were observed. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, p < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.22-3.40, p = 0.007), baseline eGFR (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.83, p < 0.001) and higher tertile of fat mass change (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.16-2.13, p = 0.003) were associated with eGFR decline after adjustment for sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease, smoking status, body mass index, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. Fat mass gain over 5 years was independently associated with eGFR decline to <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in a relatively healthy Korean population. This finding suggests that lifestyle changes to prevent fat mass gain could be protective against the development of CKD. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. Infection dynamics in frog populations with different histories of decline caused by a deadly disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapsford, Sarah J; Voordouw, Maarten J; Alford, Ross A; Schwarzkopf, Lin

    2015-12-01

    Pathogens can drive host population dynamics. Chytridiomycosis is a fungal disease of amphibians that is caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). This pathogen has caused declines and extinctions in some host species whereas other host species coexist with Bd without suffering declines. In the early 1990s, Bd extirpated populations of the endangered common mistfrog, Litoria rheocola, at high-elevation sites, while populations of the species persisted at low-elevation sites. Today, populations have reappeared at many high-elevation sites where they presently co-exist with the fungus. We conducted a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study of six populations of L. rheocola over 1 year, at high and low elevations. We used multistate CMR models to determine which factors (Bd infection status, site type, and season) influenced rates of frog survival, recapture, infection, and recovery from infection. We observed Bd-induced mortality of individual frogs, but did not find any significant effect of Bd infection on the survival rate of L. rheocola at the population level. Survival and recapture rates depended on site type and season. Infection rate was highest in winter when temperatures were favourable for pathogen growth, and differed among site types. The recovery rate was high (75.7-85.8%) across seasons, and did not differ among site types. The coexistence of L. rheocola with Bd suggests that (1) frog populations are becoming resistant to the fungus, (2) Bd may have evolved lower virulence, or (3) current environmental conditions may be inhibiting outbreaks of the fatal disease.

  12. Analysis of fertility decline in Vietnam in the context of population policy and in comparison with China

    OpenAIRE

    Papřoková, Petra

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of fertility decline in Vietnam in the context of population policy and in comparison with China Abstract Vietnam was unified in 1976 after a 20-year war which left the country devastated. Since that time, Vietnam has experienced dynamic population changes. The Government has introduced an interesting population policy with successful programs. From the end of the 80s until the beginning of the 21st century, Vietnam experienced a huge decline in fertility, one of the most significant...

  13. Population Declines of Mountain Coqui (Eleutherodactylus portoricensis) in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, Brittany S.; Ríos-Franceschi, Alejandro

    2014-01-01

    The Mountain Coqui (Eleutherodactylus portoricensis) is a frog endemic to montane rainforests in the Cordillera Central and Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Classified as endangered by the IUCN Red List and as vulnerable by the Department of Natural and Environmental Resources of Puerto Rico, this species has undergone considerable decline in the Luquillo Mountains. To evaluate the population status of E. portoricensis across its entire range, we conducted ~87 hours of surveys at 18 historical localities and 25 additional localities that we considered suitable for this species. We generated occupancy models to estimate the probability of occurrence at surveyed sites and to identify geographic and climatic factors affecting site occupancy. We also constructed a suitability map to visualize population status in relation to the presence of land cover at elevations where the species has been documented, and determined the dates when populations were last detected at historical localities. Eleutherodactylus portoricensis was detected at 14 of 43 localities, including 10 of 18 historical localities, but it was not detected at any localities west of Aibonito (western Cordillera Central). Occupancy models estimated the probability of occurrence for localities in the western Cordillera Central as zero. Site occupancy was positively associated with montane cloud forest, and negatively associated with the western Cordillera Central, maximum temperature, and precipitation seasonality. The suitability map suggests that declines have occurred despite the presence of suitable habitat. We suggest upgrading the extinction risk of E. portoricensis and potentially developing a captive breeding program for this species. PMID:25685250

  14. Declines in fertility levels evident in Africa, notes UN Population Fund.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofosu-amaah, V

    1998-01-01

    This article reports on the UN Population Fund's (UNFPA) African regional meeting that was held in November 1997. The meeting was attended by an assortment of UNFPA representatives and program staff. This meeting followed up the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and 1995 regional meetings on the 1994 Plan of Action. These prior meetings emphasized the link between population and development and the urgency of meeting the needs of individual women and men in a people-centered approach to development, rather than a target oriented one. The 1997 meeting reviewed the progress made toward achieving the goals of the 1994 plan of action by the UNFPA. UNFPA aims to decentralize operations, to play a role in emergency situations, to encourage South-to-South cooperation, to advocate for reproductive rights, and to promote gender equity and women's empowerment. The meeting discussed UNFPA's role in reproductive health, population and development strategies, and advocacy in detail. Participants agreed that there were signs of fertility decline in Africa. Countries are beginning to adopt a reproductive health and rights approach and to address female genital mutilation as a human and reproductive right's issue. Population policies are being changed to include ICPD goals. 32 countries adopted new programs in 1996 and 1997, that integrated the 1994 strategies and selectively focused on issues of concern. Partnerships confirm that population issues are becoming an agenda for all. The major challenge ahead is the mobilization of resources, while dealing with civil strife and political instability.

  15. Dietary Habits and Risk of Kidney Function Decline in an Urban Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Kuczmarski, Marie Fanelli; Miller, Edgar R; Nava, M Berenice; Zonderman, Alan B; Evans, Michele K; Powe, Neil R; Crews, Deidra C

    2017-01-01

    Explore the association between following a Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)-accordant diet and kidney end points among urban adults. Prospective cohort study. Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study. A total of 1,534 urban dwelling participants of the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/minute/1.73 m 2 . DASH diet accordance determined via a score based on nine target nutrients. Rapid kidney function decline (eGFR decline >3 mL/minute/1.73 m 2 per year), incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) (follow-up eGFR 25%. Participants' mean age was 48 years, and 59% were African-American. Median DASH score was 1.5 (range, 0-8). Over a median of 5 years, 13.4% experienced rapid eGFR decline, including 15.2% among participants not following a DASH-accordant diet (score ≤1) and 12.0% with higher accordance (score >1) (P = .08). Outcomes varied by hypertension status. In multinomial logistic regression models, following adjustment for sociodemographic and clinical factors, including total energy intake, low DASH diet accordance was associated with rapid eGFR decline among participants with hypertension (risk ratio, 1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-2.42) but not among those without hypertension (risk ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval: 0.56-1.24; P interaction .001). There was no statistically significant association between DASH diet accordance and incident CKD or eGFR decline >25%. Results were similar when DASH diet accordance was analyzed in tertiles. Among urban adults, low accordance to a DASH-type diet was not associated with incident CKD, but was associated with higher risk of rapid eGFR decline among those with hypertension, yet not among those without hypertension. Further study of dietary patterns as a potential target for improving kidney outcomes among high-risk populations is warranted. Copyright © 2016

  16. Using latent selection difference to model persistence in a declining population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara E Erickson

    Full Text Available Population persistence is a direct measure of the viability of a population. Monitoring the distribution of declining populations or subpopulations over time can yield estimates of persistence, which we show can be modeled as a latent selection difference (LSD contrasting attributes of sites where populations have persisted versus those that have not. Predicted persistence can be modeled with predictor covariates to identify factors correlated with species persistence. We demonstrate how to model persistence based on changes in occupancy that can include adjustments for detection probability. Using a known historical distribution of the western grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis, we adapted methods originally developed for occupancy modeling to evaluate how environmental covariates including emergent vegetation and human developments have affected western grebe persistence in Alberta. The relative probability of persistence was correlated with the extent of shoreline bulrush (Scirpus lacustris, which is important vegetation for nesting cover. We also documented that western grebe populations were less likely to persist on lakes in the boreal forest, primarily located on the northern boundary of the species' range. Factors influencing occupancy were different than those determining persistence by western grebes; persistence and occupancy were not correlated. Persistence was more likely on lakes with recreational development, reflecting reliance by grebes on the larger, fish-bearing waterbodies that also are attractive for lakeshore development. Unfortunately, the correlation with recreational development on Alberta's lakes puts grebes at risk for loss of brood-rearing habitats--primary threats to altricial birds--if steps are not taken to prevent disturbance to bulrush stands. Identifying factors related to the persistence of a species--especially one in decline--is a fundamental step in conservation management.

  17. Climate, social factors and research disturbance influence population dynamics in a declining sociable weaver metapopulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altwegg, Res; Doutrelant, Claire; Anderson, Mark D; Spottiswoode, Claire N; Covas, Rita

    2014-02-01

    Population trends are determined by gains through reproduction and immigration, and losses through mortality and emigration. These demographic quantities and resulting population dynamics are affected by different external and internal drivers. We examined how these demographic quantities were affected by weather, research-induced disturbance, local density, colony site and year in a metapopulation of 17 sociable weaver (Philetairus socius) colonies over 17 years of study (4 years for reproduction). Most colonies declined, but at different rates. The four demographic quantities were related to different drivers. Survival strongly varied among years and colonies and was positively related to rainfall and negatively related to extreme temperature (together explaining 30% of variation) and disturbance (measured as number of captures conducted at a colony; 7%). There was a trend for a positive relationship between reproduction and rainfall (50%). Movement was mainly related to local density: individuals were more likely to emigrate from small to large colonies and from colonies that were either well below or above their long-term mean. They were more likely to immigrate into colonies that were nearby, and below their mean size. We then quantified the effects of these relationships on metapopulation dynamics using a multi-site matrix projection model. Rainfall was potentially a strong driver of metapopulation dynamics. In addition, field-work disturbance might have contributed to the decline of this metapopulation but could not explain its full magnitude. Hence, through a combination of analytical methods we were able to obtain information on the main drivers affecting dynamics in a declining metapopulation.

  18. Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

    2002-01-01

    ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

  19. What Happened to Nezara viridula (L.) in the Americas? Possible Reasons to Explain Populations Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizzi, A R; Lucini, T

    2016-12-01

    Once abundant in the Americas, the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) has gradually declined in numbers. Until the 1990s, it was considered the main pest of major crops such as soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merrill, particularly in southern Brazil and southern USA, as well as Argentina, Uruguay, and other countries. In the past 15+ years, a dramatic population decrease was observed to the point of now being considered a secondary pest in these referred countries. In this article, we list and discuss possible reasons which explain the decline in N. viridula population in the Americas. These factors include the following: (1) the steady increase of herbicides used in no-tillage/multiple cropping systems affecting potential hosts such as weeds in crop fields and nearby natural vegetation; (2) the change in cultivation systems, mostly in the Neotropics, favoring other species more adapted to exploit crops in modern day agriculture; (3) competition among several species of stink bugs that colonize major crops; (4) the growing impact of several species of egg parasitoids, some of them laboratory reared and released in crop fields, and other natural enemies (parasitoids and predators); and (5) the impact of global climate change affecting its distribution and biology.

  20. Tarangire revisited: Consequences of declining connectivity in a tropical ungulate population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Thomas A.; Link, William; Newmark, William D.; Foley, Charles A.H.; Bolger, Douglas T.

    2016-01-01

    The hyper-abundance of migratory wildlife in many ecosystems depends on maintaining access to seasonally available resources. In Eastern and Southern Africa, land-use change and a loss of connectivity have coincided with widespread declines in the abundance and geographic range of ungulate populations. Using photographic capture-mark-recapture, we examine the historical pattern of loss of connectivity and its impact on population trends in a partially migratory wildebeest population in northern Tanzania. To estimate abundance, we use a novel modeling approach that overcomes bias associated with photo misidentifications. Our data indicate (1) diminished connectivity within and between seasonal areas as a result of human activities, (2) a reduction in the overall population size compared to historical numbers, with high variability over time, (3) the continued use of highly constrained movement corridors between the three main seasonal ranges, (4) higher recruitment in the non-migratory subpopulation (Lake Manyara National Park) than in other areas of the ecosystem, and (5) an increase in the relative abundance of resident to migrant wildebeest. Recent conservation efforts to protect seasonal habitat and to enforce anti-poaching policies outside protected areas have likely helped stabilize the population, at least temporarily, but we caution that several key vulnerabilities remain.

  1. Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity ( 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

  2. Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Rubolini, Diego; von Hardenberg, Jost; Provenzale, Antonello; Hüppop, Kathrin; Hüppop, Ommo; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lehikoinen, Esa; Rainio, Kalle; Romano, Maria; Sokolov, Leonid

    2011-03-22

    Climate is changing at a fast pace, causing widespread, profound consequences for living organisms. Failure to adjust the timing of life-cycle events to climate may jeopardize populations by causing ecological mismatches to the life cycle of other species and abiotic factors. Population declines of some migratory birds breeding in Europe have been suggested to depend on their inability to adjust migration phenology so as to keep track of advancement of spring events at their breeding grounds. In fact, several migrants have advanced their spring arrival date, but whether such advancement has been sufficient to compensate for temporal shift in spring phenophases or, conversely, birds have become ecologically mismatched, is still an unanswered question, with very few exceptions. We used a novel approach based on accumulated winter and spring temperatures (degree-days) as a proxy for timing of spring biological events to test if the progress of spring at arrival to the breeding areas by 117 European migratory bird species has changed over the past five decades. Migrants, and particularly those wintering in sub-Saharan Africa, now arrive at higher degree-days and may have therefore accumulated a 'thermal delay', thus possibly becoming increasingly mismatched to spring phenology. Species with greater 'thermal delay' have shown larger population decline, and this evidence was not confounded by concomitant ecological factors or by phylogenetic effects. These findings provide general support to the largely untested hypotheses that migratory birds are becoming ecologically mismatched and that failure to respond to climate change can have severe negative impacts on their populations. The novel approach we adopted can be extended to the analysis of ecological consequences of phenological response to climate change by other taxa.

  3. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  4. Prey composition and habitat use of the small and declining Danish population of Little Owl (Athene noctua)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottesen, N.; Svenne, S.; Sunde, P.

    The population of little owl in Denmark has declined severely during the last 30 years. Many possible causes have been proposed, but the exact cause of this trend is still unknown. Therefore acquirering knowledge about the owls is important....

  5. Activity patterns and time budgets of the declining sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelatt, Thomas S.; Siniff, Donald B.; Estes, James A.

    2002-01-01

    Time budgets of predators may reflect population status if time spent foraging varies with local prey abun- dance. We assumed that the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, had been at equilibrium since the early 1960s and collected time budgets of otters to be used to represent future conditions of currently expanding sea otter populations. We used radiotelemetry to monitor activity-time budgets of otters from August 1992 to March 1994. Sea otter activity was directly linked to sex, age, weather condition, season, and time of day. Sea otters differed in percent time foraging among cohorts but not within cohorts. Percent time foraging ranged from 21% for females with very young (≤ 3weeks of age) dependent pups to 52% for females with old (≥10 weeks of age) pups. Otters foraged more and hauled out more as local sea conditions worsened. Adult males spent less time foraging during winter and spring, consistent with seasonal changes in prey selection. Time spent for- aging was similar to that reported for otters in California and an established population in Prince William Sound, Alaska, but greater than that of otters in recently established populations in Oregon and Alaska. Despite current evidence indicating that the population was in decline during our study, we were unable to recognize this change using time budgets. Our results illustrate the importance of stratifying analyses of activity patterns by age and sex cohorts and the complexity inherent in comparisons of behavioral data between different populations relying on distinct prey bases.

  6. Population decline in Polish and Czech cities during post-socialism? Looking behind the official statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinführer, Annett; Bierzynski, Adam; Grossmann, Katrin; Haase, Annegret; Kabisch, Sigrun; Klusácek, Petr

    2010-01-01

    The evolving debate on "urban shrinkage" mirrors an increasing interest in demographic phenomena on the part of urban scholars. This paper discusses ambiguous evidence about recent population decline in the large cities of Poland and the Czech Republic, with a particular focus on Łódz and Brno in general and their inner cities more specifically. By applying a mixed-method approach, the paper identifies indications of inner-city repopulation and socio-demographic diversification which are not yet apparent in register or census data. It is argued that there are indications of a silent transformation of traditional residential patterns and neighbourhoods in east central Europe. In the inner cities, this is reflected, amongst other things, by the presence of new households that may be called "transitory urbanites".

  7. Doomsday for insects? The alarming decline of insect populations around the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio J. Bidau

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Current rates of extinction exceed largely the standard background rate and all living species can be affected. Insects, the most successful group of eukaryotic organisms from their ancient origin almost 480 my ago are no exception. Despite their fundamental roles in all terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, insects are victims of the anthropogenic intereference (habitat destruction, overharvesting, pathogens, pesticides, pollution, urbanization, transport of invasive species, and greenhouse gases emissions that is causing the declination of their populations around the world. Although most insects are not charismatic as many vertebrates or plants, they deserve the same level of protection as other species with which humans are more concerned. It is a duty for all entomologists to study an implement conservation measures of insect species, and educate the general public about their inmense relevance for the Biosphere.

  8. Hungarian Population Discourses in the Twentieth Century: The Problem of Declining Birth Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Szántó

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Falling birth rates had already been recorded as early as the late-eighteenth century in south-western Hungary in the Ormánság. Population loss from low birth rate remained one of the main topics writers and sociologists focused on in the twentieth century. The issue of Hungarian population decline was highlighted among the social ills in the interwar period, which was one of several subjects that divided intellectuals into ‘populists’ and ‘urbanites’. Following the impact of the low birth rate figures in the 1960s, the populists’ views of the 1930s resurfaced in public discourse in the 1960s and 1970s and up to the present day. The concern about the increasing trend of single-child families in rural settlements as well as in urban areas appeared in the various works of Hungarian writers and journalists throughout the previous century. The present paper intends to focus on the intellectual background to the public debates on the population issue, outlining the accounts of the interwar ‘village explorers’ briefly, and the way they are related to the pre-Second World War populist movement. Finally the reappearance of the debates between populists and non-populists of the 1970s is discussed, a debate that is still continuing.

  9. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J; Robertson, Bruce C

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  10. Ancient and contemporary DNA reveal a pre-human decline but no population bottleneck associated with recent human persecution in the kea (Nestor notabilis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Dussex

    Full Text Available The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis. Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000-5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410, historical (n = 15 and fossil samples (n = 4 showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 - 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines.

  11. Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

    2015-01-01

    The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

  12. Could Immigration Prevent Population Decline? The Demographic Prospects of Germany Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Weber

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Germany has a record of more than 40 years of below-replacement fertility and annual death surplus. Hence, it is commonly accepted that Germany’s population will decline considerably in the coming decades. Recent increases in immigration may, however, challenge the official long-term demographic projections for Germany. This paper assesses the impact of a permanent higher-than-expected level of net immigration to Germany as in the past three years on the projections for population, age structure and ethnic makeup by mid-century.The paper adds a higher immigration variant to the Federal Statistical Office’s latest Coordinated Population Projection and two variants of a (a constant or (b decreasing fertility rate among migrant women. It can be shown that with permanent net migration as high as in recent years (around 300,000 per annum, Germany’s population would not significantly decrease in the coming decades but would rather remain at 80 million until 2050. On the other hand, the sharp rise in the old-age dependency ratio is only mildly weakened by increased immigration rates. This issue is therefore probably best addressed by other (or additional means. The increase in retirees will level off after 2035 in any case. The ethnic makeup of society would be affected to a greater degree than its age composition: The share of first- and second-generation immigrants among the total population is projected to rise to about 35 percent in this scenario (and to above 40 percent if the third generation is also counted.

  13. Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, D.L.; Cox, E.W.; Ballard, W.B.; Whitlaw, Heather A.; Lenarz, M.S.; Custer, T.W.; Barnett, T.; Fuller, T.K.

    2006-01-01

    Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke (Fascioloides magna) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or

  14. Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, G W

    1983-01-01

    Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves

  15. Self-reported health status as a predictor of functional decline in a community-dwelling elderly population: Nationwide longitudinal survey in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Hyuck; Cho, Belong; Won, Chang Won; Hong, Young Ho; Son, Ki Young

    2017-06-01

    As the elderly population is increasing, the prediction and prevention of functional decline in older adults are of great concern. The present study aimed to evaluate whether poor self-reported health status (SRHS) could predict functional decline after 2 years in the elderly population. Data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging panel, a national representative sample of aging Koreans, were used. Participants of the investigation were the elderly population aged 65 years or more without disability in carrying out activities of daily living (ADL) at baseline. The survey asked respondents about their subjective health status. Setting the respondents who stated their health status as "very good" or "good" as the reference group, multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out to compare functional decline according to the baseline SRHS. A total of 2824 participants were included in the analysis. Among them, 138 (4.9 %) reported functional decline of at least one of the seven ADL components after 2 years. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, SRHS was significantly associated with subsequent functional decline in respondents who chose "Bad" (odds ratio 3.32, 95% confidence interval 1.71-6.44) or "Very bad" (OR 4.75, 95% CI 2.12-10.66). Furthermore, poorer SRHS was significantly associated with subsequent impairment in each ADL component. Also, SRHS predicted overall subsequent impairment in the instrumental ADL. SRHS predicted functional decline after 2 years in older adults without baseline disabilities. SRHS can be a good predictor of future functional decline in the elderly population. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 885-892. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  16. Adherence to a Mediterranean-type dietary pattern and cognitive decline in a community population123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangney, Christine C; Kwasny, Mary J; Li, Hong; Wilson, Robert S; Evans, Denis A; Morris, Martha Clare

    2011-01-01

    Background: Many of the foods abundant in the traditional Mediterranean diet, such as vegetables and fish, have been associated with slower cognitive decline. Objective: We investigated whether adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern or to the Healthy Eating Index–2005 (HEI-2005) is associated with cognitive change in older adults. Design: This article is based on analyses of data from an ongoing longitudinal study in adults aged ≥65 y known as the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP). CHAP participants (2280 blacks and 1510 whites) with ≥2 cognitive assessments were evaluated for adherence to 1) the Mediterranean dietary pattern (MedDiet; maximum score: 55) and 2) the HEI-2005 (maximum score: 100). For both scoring systems, higher scores connote greater adherence. Cognitive function was assessed at 3-y intervals on the basis of a composite measure of global cognition. Linear mixed models were used to examine the association of dietary scores to change in cognitive function. Mean follow-up time was 7.6 y. Results: Mean (±SD) scores for participants were 28.2 ± 0.1 for the MedDiet and 61.2 ± 9.6 for the HEI-2005. White participants had higher energy-adjusted MedDiet scores but lower HEI-2005 scores than did black participants. Higher MedDiet scores were associated with slower rates of cognitive decline (β = +0.0014 per 1-point increase, SEE = 0.0004, P = 0.0004) after adjustment for age, sex, race, education, participation in cognitive activities, and energy. No such associations were observed for HEI-2005 scores. Conclusion: The Mediterranean dietary pattern as captured by the MedDiet scoring system may reduce the rate of cognitive decline with older age. PMID:21177796

  17. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, João P; Correia, Ricardo; Alonso, Hany; Martins, Ricardo C; D'Amico, Marcello; Delgado, Ana; Sampaio, Hugo; Godinho, Carlos; Moreira, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas) in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax . We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003-2006 and 2016) in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA) that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10-14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline) compared to losses within SPA (25% decline). However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  18. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João P. Silva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax. Methods We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003–2006 and 2016 in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Results Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10–14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline compared to losses within SPA (25% decline. However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . Discussion In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  19. Breeding ecology of the southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, in an agrosystem of south–eastern Spain: the surprisingly excellent breeding success in a declining population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno-Rueda, G.; Abril-Colon, I.; Lopez-Orta, A.; Alvarez-Benito, I.; Castillo-Gomez, C.; Comas, M.; Rivas, J.M.

    2016-07-01

    The southern shrike, Lanius meridionalis, is declining at the Spanish and European level. One cause of this decline could be low reproductive success due to low availability of prey in agricultural environments. To investigate this possibility we analysed the breeding ecology of a population of southern shrike in an agrosystem in Lomas de Padul (SE Spain). Our results suggest the population is declining in this area. However, contrary to expectations, the population showed the highest reproductive success (% nests in which at least one egg produces a fledgling) reported for this species to date (83.3%), with a productivity of 4.04 fledglings per nest. Reproductive success varied throughout the years, ranging from 75% in the worst year to 92.9% in the best year. Similarly, productivity ranged from 3.25 to 5.0 fledglings per nest depending on the year. Other aspects of reproductive biology, such as clutch size, brood size, and nestling diet, were similar to those reported in other studies. Based on these results, we hypothesise that the determinant of population decline acts on the juvenile fraction, drastically reducing the recruitment rate, or affecting the dispersion of adults and recruits. Nevertheless, the exact factor or factors are unknown. This study shows that a high reproductive success does not guarantee good health status of the population. (Author)

  20. Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

    2015-09-01

    The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  2. Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: Causal connection or spurious correlation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin S. McKelvey; Eric C. Lofroth; Jeffrey P. Copeland; Keith B. Aubry; Audrey J. Magoun

    2010-01-01

    The recent paper by Brodie and Post ("Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack", Popul Ecol 52:279-287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine's (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data...

  3. Rapid population decline in red knots : fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, AJ; Gonzalez, PM; Piersma, T; Niles, LJ; do Nascimento, IDS; Atkinson, PW; Clark, NA; Minton, CDT; Peck, MK; Aarts, G

    2004-01-01

    Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego,

  4. A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaine F. Camfield

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and population growth rate (λ for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1. We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10 and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The

  5. Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flockhart, D T Tyler; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Norris, D Ryan; Martin, Tara G

    2015-01-01

    Threats to migratory animals can occur at multiple periods of the annual cycle that are separated by thousands of kilometres and span international borders. Populations of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) of eastern North America have declined over the last 21 years. Three hypotheses have been posed to explain the decline: habitat loss on the overwintering grounds in Mexico, habitat loss on the breeding grounds in the United States and Canada, and extreme weather events. Our objectives were to assess population viability, determine which life stage, season and geographical region are contributing the most to population dynamics and test the three hypotheses that explain the observed population decline. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic and density-dependent periodic projection matrix model that integrates patterns of migratory connectivity and demographic vital rates across the annual cycle. We used perturbation analysis to determine the sensitivity of population abundance to changes in vital rate among life stages, seasons and geographical regions. Next, we compared the singular effects of each threat to the full model where all factors operate concurrently. Finally, we generated predictions to assess the risk of host plant loss as a result of genetically modified crops on current and future monarch butterfly population size and extinction probability. Our year-round population model predicted population declines of 14% and a quasi-extinction probability (5% within a century. Monarch abundance was more than four times more sensitive to perturbations of vital rates on the breeding grounds than on the wintering grounds. Simulations that considered only forest loss or climate change in Mexico predicted higher population sizes compared to milkweed declines on the breeding grounds. Our model predictions also suggest that mitigating the negative effects of genetically modified crops results in higher population size and lower extinction

  6. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D. Capon

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Populations that are vulnerable to decline are of particular concern to wildlife managers and uncovering the mechanisms responsible for downward trends is a crucial step towards developing future viable populations. The aims of this study were to better understand the mechanisms behind the historic decline of the sable antelope, Hippotragus niger, population at the Malilangwe Wildlife Reserve (MWR, to assess its future viability and to use this analysis to determine key areas of breakdown in population growth and link these to potential limiting factors. VORTEX, a population viability model was used to assess the future viability of the sable antelope population and a sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the key areas of breakdown in growth. The sable population is currently viable, but remains highly vulnerable to changes in adult female survival, a factor which had the greatest influence on overall population fitness. Lion predation, impacting on the adult segment of the population, appeared to be the main factor responsible for the historic decline at the MWR.Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  7. The protozoan parasite Trichomonas gallinae causes adult and nestling mortality in a declining population of European Turtle Doves, Streptopelia turtur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdale, Jennifer E; Dunn, Jenny C; Goodman, Simon J; Morris, Antony J; Sheehan, Danaë K; Grice, Philip V; Hamer, Keith C

    2015-03-01

    Studies incorporating the ecology of clinical and sub-clinical disease in wild populations of conservation concern are rare. Here we examine sub-clinical infection by Trichomonas gallinae in a declining population of free-living European Turtle Doves and suggest caseous lesions cause mortality in adults and nestlings through subsequent starvation and/or suffocation. We found a 100% infection rate by T. gallinae in adult and nestling Turtle Doves (n = 25) and observed clinical signs in three adults and four nestlings (28%). Adults with clinical signs displayed no differences in any skeletal measures of size but had a mean 3.7% reduction in wing length, with no overlap compared to those without clinical signs. We also identified T. gallinae as the suggested cause of mortality in one Red-legged Partridge although disease presentation was different. A minimum of four strains of T. gallinae, characterized at the ITS/5.8S/ITS2 ribosomal region, were isolated from Turtle Doves. However, all birds with clinical signs (Turtle Doves and the Red-legged Partridge) carried a single strain of T. gallinae, suggesting that parasite spill over between Columbidae and Galliformes is a possibility that should be further investigated. Overall, we highlight the importance of monitoring populations for sub-clinical infection rather than just clinical disease.

  8. Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, D.L.; Cox, E.W.; Ballard, W.B.; Whitlaw, Heather A.; Lenarz, M.S.; Custer, T.W.; Barnett, T.; Fuller, T.K.

    2006-01-01

    Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke (Fascioloides magna) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or

  9. Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

    2015-01-01

    Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  10. Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum Populations in Malaria Declining Areas of Sabah, East Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Ridzuan Mohd Abd Razak

    .532. The genetic data from the present study highlighted the limited diversity and contrasting genetic pattern of P. falciparum populations in the malaria declining areas of Sabah.

  11. Neighborhood context and cognitive decline in older Mexican Americans: results from the Hispanic Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Kristin M; Peek, M Kristen

    2009-05-01

    In previous research on cognitive decline among older adults, investigators have not considered the potential impact of contextual variables, such as neighborhood-level conditions. In the present investigation, the authors examined the association between 2 neighborhood-context variables-socioeconomic status and percentage of Mexican-American residents-and individual-level cognitive function over a 5-year follow-up period (1993-1998). Data were obtained from the Hispanic Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, a longitudinal study of community-dwelling older Mexican Americans (n = 3,050) residing in the southwestern United States. Individual records were linked with 1990 US Census tract data, which provided information on neighborhood characteristics. Hierarchical linear growth-curve models and hierarchical logistic models were used to examine relations between individual- and neighborhood-level variables and the rate and incidence of cognitive decline. Results showed that baseline cognitive function and rates of cognitive decline varied significantly across US Census tracts. Respondents living in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods experienced significantly faster rates of cognitive decline than those in more advantaged neighborhoods. Odds of incident cognitive decline decreased as a function of neighborhood percentage of Mexican-American residents and increased with neighborhood economic disadvantage. The authors conclude that neighborhood context is associated with late-life cognitive function and that the effects are independent of individual-level risk factors.

  12. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

  13. Managing habitat to slow or reverse population declines of the Columbia spotted frog in the Northern Great Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S.; Richard D. Scherer,

    2015-01-01

    Evaluating the effectiveness of habitat management actions is critical to adaptive management strategies for conservation of imperiled species. We quantified the response of a Great Basin population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) to multiple habitat improvement actions aimed to reduce threats and reverse population declines. We used mark-recapture data for 1,394 adult frogs that had been marked by state, federal, and university biologists in 9 ponds representing a single population over a 16-year period from 1997 to 2012. With the use of demographic models, we assessed population-level effects of 1) a grazing exclosure constructed around 6 stock ponds that had been used to water livestock for decades before being fully fenced in 2003, and 2) the construction of 3 new stock ponds in 2003 to provide alternative water sources for livestock and, secondarily, to provide additional frog habitat. These management actions were implemented in response to a decline of more than 80% in population size from 1997 to 2002. We found evidence that excluding cattle from ponds and surrounding riparian habitats resulted in higher levels of frog production (more egg masses), higher adult frog recruitment and survival, and higher population growth rate. We also found that frogs colonized the newly constructed stock ponds within 3 years and frogs began breeding in 2 of them after 5 years. The positive effects of the cattle exclosure and additional production from the new ponds, although notable, did not result in full recovery of the population even 9 years later. This slow recovery may be partly explained by the effects of weather on recruitment rates, particularly the negative effects of harsher winters with late springs and higher fall temperatures. Although our findings point to potential successes of habitat management aimed at slowing or reversing rapidly declining frog populations, our study also suggests that recovering from severe population declines can take

  14. Ocean-wide Drivers of Migration Strategies and Their Influence on Population Breeding Performance in a Declining Seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Diamond, Antony; Erikstad, Kjell E; Fifield, Dave; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G; Hansen, Erpur S; Harris, Mike P; Jessopp, Mark; Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee; Kress, Steve; Mowat, Stephen; Perrins, Chris M; Petersen, Aevar; Petersen, Ib K; Reiertsen, Tone K; Robertson, Gregory J; Shannon, Paula; Sigurðsson, Ingvar A; Shoji, Akiko; Wanless, Sarah; Guilford, Tim

    2017-12-18

    Which factors shape animals' migration movements across large geographical scales, how different migratory strategies emerge between populations, and how these may affect population dynamics are central questions in the field of animal migration [1] that only large-scale studies of migration patterns across a species' range can answer [2]. To address these questions, we track the migration of 270 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, a red-listed, declining seabird, across their entire breeding range. We investigate the role of demographic, geographical, and environmental variables in driving spatial and behavioral differences on an ocean-basin scale by measuring puffins' among-colony differences in migratory routes and day-to-day behavior (estimated with individual daily activity budgets and energy expenditure). We show that competition and local winter resource availability are important drivers of migratory movements, with birds from larger colonies or with poorer local winter conditions migrating further and visiting less-productive waters; this in turn led to differences in flight activity and energy expenditure. Other behavioral differences emerge with latitude, with foraging effort and energy expenditure increasing when birds winter further north in colder waters. Importantly, these ocean-wide migration patterns can ultimately be linked with breeding performance: colony productivity is negatively associated with wintering latitude, population size, and migration distance, which demonstrates the cost of competition and migration on future breeding and the link between non-breeding and breeding periods. Our results help us to understand the drivers of animal migration and have important implications for population dynamics and the conservation of migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Dual-pathogen etiology of avian trichomonosis in a declining band-tailed pigeon population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Yvette A; Rogers, Krysta H; Woods, Leslie W; Chouicha, Nadira; Miller, Woutrina A; Johnson, Christine K

    2014-06-01

    The Pacific Coast band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata monilis) is a migratory game bird of North America that is at risk for population decline. Epidemics of avian trichomonosis caused by upper digestive tract infection with Trichomonas spp. protozoa in these and other doves and pigeons of the United States are sporadic, but can involve tens of thousands of birds in a single event. Herein, we analyze the role of trichomonosis in band-tailed pigeon mortality and relate spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of parasite transmission to the genetic background of the infecting organism. Infections were most common in adult birds and prevalence was high in band-tailed pigeons sampled at mortality events (96%) and rehabilitation centers (36%) compared to those that were hunter-killed (11%) or live-caught (4%). During non-epidemic periods, animals were primarily infected with T. gallinae Fe-hydrogenase subtype A2, and were less often infected with either T. gallinae subtype A1 (the British finch epidemic strain), T. stableri n. sp. (a T. vaginalis-like species), or Tritrichomonas blagburni n. sp.-like organisms. Birds sampled during multiple epidemics in California were only infected with T. gallinae subtype A2 and T. stableri. The non-clonal etiology of avian trichomonosis outbreaks in band-tailed pigeons and the risk of spill-over to raptor and passerine species highlights the need for additional studies that clarify the host range and evolutionary relationships between strains of Trichomonas spp. in regions of trichomonosis endemicity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Airborne Pesticides as an Unlikely Cause for Population Declines of Alpine Frogs in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured...

  17. Adaptive landscapes and density-dependent selection in declining salmonid populations: going beyond numerical responses to human disturbance

    OpenAIRE

    Einum, Sigurd; Robertsen, Grethe; Fleming, Ian A

    2008-01-01

    Theory suggests an important role for population density in shaping adaptive landscapes through density-dependent selection. Here, we identify five methodological approaches for studying such selection, review the existing empirical evidence for it, and ask whether current declines in abundance can be expected to trigger evolutionary responses in salmonid fishes. Across taxa we find substantial amounts of evidence for population density influencing the location of adaptive peaks for a range o...

  18. Decline in Endangered Species as an Indication of Anthropic Pressures: The Case of European Mink Mustela lutreola Western Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodé, Thierry; Cormier, Jean-Paul; Le Jacques, Dominique

    2001-12-01

    Populations of threatened species, especially predators at the top of the food chain, may be affected by anthropic pressures. The endangered western population of European mink Mustela lutreola has shown a large decline over 50% of its natural range. M. lutreola disappeared from northwestern France between 1984 and 1997, and the decline was associated with an increase in mustelid trapping, changes in watercourse quality, and habitat modifications due to agricultural practices. The pattern of decline showed a fragmentation restricting the minks into very small areas. Trapping was the first known cause of mortality. Although feral American mink Mustela vison may compete with autochthonous carnivores, M. lutreola had disappeared from streams before the introduction of the American species, suggesting that competitive interactions were not responsible. Furthermore, American mink has never been found or has remained rare in 62.4% of the area from which M. lutreola has disappeared. During the past 25 years, permanent grassland surfaces were reduced by 40%, whereas fodder culture increased by 470%, causing considerable habitat changes. Furthermore, 55.7% of water courses were classified as being of bad quality or polluted. Therefore, our data suggests that a conjunction of intensive trapping, alterations in water quality and habitat modification was critical for the European mink's decline. Although there are difficulties in ascribing specific cause to distribution changes in a top predator, this decline can be regarded as an indication for anthropic pressures on natural habitats.

  19. Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-12-01

    Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014

  20. Mixed Fortunes: Ancient Expansion and Recent Decline in Population Size of a Subtropical Montane Primate, the Arunachal Macaque Macaca munzala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Debapriyo; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

    2014-01-01

    Quaternary glacial oscillations are known to have caused population size fluctuations in many temperate species. Species from subtropical and tropical regions are, however, considerably less studied, despite representing most of the biodiversity hotspots in the world including many highly threatened by anthropogenic activities such as hunting. These regions, consequently, pose a significant knowledge gap in terms of how their fauna have typically responded to past climatic changes. We studied an endangered primate, the Arunachal macaque Macaca munzala, from the subtropical southern edge of the Tibetan plateau, a part of the Eastern Himalaya biodiversity hotspot, also known to be highly threatened due to rampant hunting. We employed a 534 bp-long mitochondrial DNA sequence and 22 autosomal microsatellite loci to investigate the factors that have potentially shaped the demographic history of the species. Analysing the genetic data with traditional statistical methods and advance Bayesian inferential approaches, we demonstrate a limited effect of past glacial fluctuations on the demographic history of the species before the last glacial maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. This was, however, immediately followed by a significant population expansion possibly due to warmer climatic conditions, approximately 15,000 years ago. These changes may thus represent an apparent balance between that displayed by the relatively climatically stable tropics and those of the more severe, temperate environments of the past. This study also draws attention to the possibility that a cold-tolerant species like the Arunachal macaque, which could withstand historical climate fluctuations and grow once the climate became conducive, may actually be extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic exploitation, as is perhaps indicated by its Holocene ca. 30-fold population decline, approximately 3,500 years ago. Our study thus provides a quantitative appraisal of these demographically important

  1. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States.

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    Thomas E Ingersoll

    Full Text Available Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species - little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus, tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus, Indiana myotis (M. sodalis, and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis - in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999-2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11% in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38% in P. subflavus, 30% (±26% in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18% in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and

  2. Genetic structure and evidence for recent population decline in Eurasian otter populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics: implications for conservation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hájková, P.; Pertoldi, C.; Ukendt, Zemanová

    2007-01-01

    Over the latter part of the 20th century, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra populations suffered dramatic declines, resulting in extinction or fragmentation of populations in many western and central European countries. Part of the Czech otter population became totally isolated while the Slovak populati...... that they remain a strongly protected species in both countries. The spreading and re-connection of otter populations observed recently is essential for the future health of the populations, and should be supported through habitat conservation.......Over the latter part of the 20th century, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra populations suffered dramatic declines, resulting in extinction or fragmentation of populations in many western and central European countries. Part of the Czech otter population became totally isolated while the Slovak population...... and faecal samples. A relatively high level of genetic differentiation was found between the Czech and Slovak populations (FST=0.154, P=0.0002), supported by a perfect assignment in Bayesian cluster analysis. Both the Czech and Slovak populations showed significant heterozygosity excess (assuming an infinite...

  3. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

    2015-11-01

    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

  4. The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vibhu Prakash

    Full Text Available Populations of oriental white-backed vulture (Gyps bengalensis, long-billed vulture (Gyps indicus and slender-billed vulture (Gyps tenuirostris crashed during the mid-1990s throughout the Indian subcontinent. Surveys in India, initially conducted in 1991-1993 and repeated in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2007, revealed that the population of Gyps bengalensis had fallen by 2007 to 0.1% of its numbers in the early 1990s, with the population of Gyps indicus and G. tenuirostris combined having fallen to 3.2% of its earlier level. A survey of G. bengalensis in western Nepal indicated that the size of the population in 2009 was 25% of that in 2002. In this paper, repeat surveys conducted in 2011 were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level, but the decline had slowed and may even have reversed for G. bengalensis, both in India and Nepal. However, estimates of the most recent population trends are imprecise, so it is possible that declines may be continuing, though at a significantly slower rate. The degree to which the decline of G. bengalensis in India has slowed is consistent with the expected effects on population trend of a measured change in the level of contamination of ungulate carcasses with the drug diclofenac, which is toxic to vultures, following a ban on its veterinary use in 2006. The most recent available information indicates that the elimination of diclofenac from the vultures' food supply is incomplete, so further efforts are required to fully implement the ban.

  5. Profound Differences in Virus Population Genetics Correspond to Protection from CD4 Decline Resulting from Feline Lentivirus Coinfection

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    Abinash Padhi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available CD4 decline is a hallmark of disease onset in individuals infected with Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV or Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1. Cats that are infected with a poorly replicating, apathogenic FIV (PLV prior to exposure to a virulent FIV strain (FIVC maintain CD4 numbers by mechanisms that are not correlated with a measurable adaptive immune response or reduction in circulating viral load. We employed population genetic approaches based on the 3' portion of the viral genome to estimate the population structure of FIVC from single and dual infected cats. In dual infected cats, FIVC effective population size was decreased during the initial viral expansion phase, and after three weeks of infection, the population declined sharply. The FIVC population recovered to pre-bottleneck levels approximately seven weeks post-FIVC infection. However, the population emerging from the bottleneck in dual infected cats was distinct based on estimates of temporal population structure and substitution profiles. The transition to transversion rate ratio (k increased from early to late phases in dual infected cats due primarily to a decrease in transversions whereas in single infected cats, k declined over time. Although one clone with extensive G to A substitutions, indicative of host cytidine deaminase editing, was recovered from a dual infected cat during the bottleneck, the post bottleneck population had an overall reduction in G to A substitutions. These data are consistent with a model of PLV-induced host restriction, putatively involving host DNA editing, that alters the dynamics of FIVC throughout the course of infection leading to disease attenuation.

  6. The decline of the Nile crocodile population in Loskop Dam, Olifants ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The apparent decline in the number of Nile crocodiles present in the Loskop Dam prompted a study to determine the number, size and distribution of Nile crocodiles now present in the reservoir. The number of crocodiles in the Loskop Dam was surveyed using aerial counts and spotlight counts. Surveys revealed the ...

  7. The use of population viability analysis to identify possible factors contributing to the decline of a rare ungulate population in south-eastern Zimbabwe

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    Simon D. Capon

    2013-04-01

    Conservation implications: Sable generally occur at low densities in the lowveld region of Zimbabwe and, as such, populations are vulnerable to increases in mortality rates. The role of lions in driving the decline at the MWR suggests a need to control their numbers and develop prey refuges through improved management of artificial water.

  8. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes...... and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. METHODS: Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period......) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...

  9. Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Rapid population decline in red knots: fitness consequences of decreased refuelling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Allan J; González, Patricia M; Piersma, Theunis; Niles, Lawrence J; do Nascimento, Inês de Lima Serrano; Atkinson, Philip W; Clark, Nigel A; Minton, Clive D T; Peck, Mark K; Aarts, Geert

    2004-04-22

    Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego, which undertakes marathon 30,000 km hemispheric migrations annually. In spring, migrant birds forage voraciously on horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay in the eastern USA before departing to breed in Arctic polar deserts. From 1997 to 2002 an increasing proportion of knots failed to reach threshold departure masses of 180-200 g, possibly because of later arrival in the Bay and food shortage from concurrent over-harvesting of crabs. Reduced nutrient storage, especially in late-arriving birds, possibly combined with reduced sizes of intestine and liver during refuelling, had severe fitness consequences for adult survival and recruitment of young in 2000-2002. From 1997 to 2002 known survivors in Delaware Bay were heavier at initial capture than birds never seen again, annual survival of adults decreased by 37% between May 2000 and May 2001, and the number of second-year birds in wintering flocks declined by 47%. Population size in Tierra del Fuego declined alarmingly from 51,000 to 27,000 in 2000-2002, seriously threatening the viability of this subspecies. Demographic modelling predicts imminent endangerment and an increased risk of extinction of the subspecies without urgent risk-averse management.

  11. Effects of population based screening for Chlamydia infections in the Netherlands limited by declining participation rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V Schmid

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A large trial to investigate the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections was conducted in the Netherlands in 2008-2012. The trial was register based and consisted of four rounds of screening of women and men in the age groups 16-29 years in three regions in the Netherlands. Data were collected on participation rates and positivity rates per round. A modeling study was conducted to project screening effects for various screening strategies into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a stochastic network simulation model incorporating partnership formation and dissolution, aging and a sexual life course perspective. Trends in baseline rates of chlamydia testing and treatment were used to describe the epidemiological situation before the start of the screening program. Data on participation rates was used to describe screening uptake in rural and urban areas. Simulations were used to project the effectiveness of screening on chlamydia prevalence for a time period of 10 years. In addition, we tested alternative screening strategies, such as including only women, targeting different age groups, and biennial screening. Screening reduced prevalence by about 1% in the first two screening rounds and leveled off after that. Extrapolating observed participation rates into the future indicated very low participation in the long run. Alternative strategies only marginally changed the effectiveness of screening. Higher participation rates as originally foreseen in the program would have succeeded in reducing chlamydia prevalence to very low levels in the long run. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing participation rates over time profoundly impact the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections. Using data from several consecutive rounds of screening in a simulation model enabled us to assess the future effectiveness of screening on prevalence. If participation rates cannot be kept at a sufficient level

  12. Pesticides Are Involved With Population Declines of Amphibians in the California Sierra Nevadas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald W. Sparling

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Several species of frogs and toads are in serious decline in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. These species include the threatened red-legged frog (Rana aurora, foothill yellow-legged frog (R. boylii, mountain yellow-legged frog (R. muscosa, Cascades frog (Rana cascadae, western toad (Bufo boreas and Yosemite toad (B. canorus. For many of these species current distributions are down to 10% of historical ranges [1,2]. Several factors including introduced predators [3,4,5], habitat loss [2], and ultraviolet radiation [6] have been suggested as causes of these declines. Another probable cause is air-borne pesticides from the Central Valley of California. The Central Valley, especially the San Joaquin Valley, is a major agricultural region where millions of pounds of active ingredient pesticides are applied each year (http://www.cdpr.ca.gov/dprdatabase.htm. Prevailing westerly winds from the Pacific Coast transport these pesticides into the Sierras [7,8].

  13. Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, H.H.; Fellers, G.M.; Lind, A.J.

    2007-01-01

    Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984-86 and from 1993-95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines among terrestrial amphibians in northwestern California forests. The majority of amphibians, both species and relative numbers, in these forests are direct-developing salamanders of the family Plethodontidae. We examined amphibian richness and evenness, and the relative abundances of the four most common species of plethodontid salamanders. We examined evidence of differences between years in two ecological provinces (coastal and interior) and across young, mature, and late seral forests and with reference to a moisture gradient from xeric to hydric within late seral forests. We found evidence of declines in species richness across years on late seral mesic stands and in the coastal ecological province, but these differences appeared to be caused by differences in the detection of rarer species, rather than evidence of an overall pattern. We also found differences among specific years in numbers of individuals of the most abundant species, Ensatina eschscholtzii, but these differences also failed to reflect a consistent pattern of declines between the two decadal sample periods. Results showing differences in richness, evenness, and relative abundances along both the seral and moisture continua were consistent with previous research. Overall, we found no compelling evidence of a downward trend in terrestrial plethodontid salamanders. We believe that continued monitoring of terrestrial salamander populations is important to understanding mechanisms of population declines in amphibian species. Copyright 2007 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

  14. Declining brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Andrew Cox; Frank R., III Thompson; Brian Root; John Faaborg; Csaba. Moskat

    2012-01-01

    Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce...

  15. Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

    2001-01-01

    Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

  16. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline

    KAUST Repository

    Vignaud, Thomas M.

    2014-05-01

    This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world\\'s largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Ginkgo Biloba Extract and Long-Term Cognitive Decline: A 20-Year Follow-Up Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amieva, Hélène; Meillon, Céline; Helmer, Catherine; Barberger-Gateau, Pascale; Dartigues, Jean François

    2013-01-01

    Background Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan®) and piracetam (Nootropyl®) on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period. Methods and Findings The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study ‘Paquid’. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the ‘neither treatment’ group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the ‘neither treatment’ group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = −0.6). Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the ‘neither treatment’ group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = −0.03), whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = −1.40 and β = −0.44). When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = −1.07, β = −1.61 and β = −0.41). Conclusion Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in

  19. Ginkgo biloba extract and long-term cognitive decline: a 20-year follow-up population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Amieva

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan® and piracetam (Nootropyl® on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period.The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study 'Paquid'. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the 'neither treatment' group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the 'neither treatment' group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = -0.6. Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the 'neither treatment' group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = -0.03, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = -1.40 and β = -0.44. When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = -1.07, β = -1.61 and β = -0.41.Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in those who did not. This effect may be a specific medication

  20. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Christianson

    Full Text Available The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  1. Investigation of thysanoptera populations in Hungarian greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orosz Szilvia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies were performed on sweet pepper and on weeds in their surroundings from 2005 to 2007 in the Jászság region, on different vegetables and ornamentals from 2015 to 2016 throughout Hungary, and on some indoor ornamental plants in Budapest and Kecskemét in 2017. These studies were carried out in greenhouses. The main objectives of this work was to clarify the consistency of Thysanoptera populations in these greenhouses and, secondly, as part of the official monitoring of Thrips palmi Karny and Thrips setosus Moulton, the study also focused on the first appearance of these pests in Hungary. An important additional aim was to determine which reservoirs were significant in the risk of Thysanoptera species transmitting tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV. Regarding the surveys conducted, the most frequent Thysanoptera species present in large numbers during the investigation period in every greenhouse was Frankliniella occidentalis Pergande. Also, a significant amount of Echinothrips americanus Morgan was found on ornamentals in southern Hungary, whereas on indoor ornamental plants only Hercinothrips femoralis O. M. Reuter was found.

  2. Foraging Habitat Quality Constrains Effectiveness of Artificial Nest-Site Provisioning in Reversing Population Declines in a Colonial Cavity Nester

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catry, Inês; Franco, Aldina M. A.; Rocha, Pedro; Alcazar, Rita; Reis, Susana; Cordeiro, Ana; Ventim, Rita; Teodósio, Joaquim; Moreira, Francisco

    2013-01-01

    Among birds, breeding numbers are mainly limited by two resources of major importance: food supply and nest-site availability. Here, we investigated how differences in land-use and nest-site availability affected the foraging behaviour, breeding success and population trends of the colonial cavity-dependent lesser kestrel Falco naumanni inhabiting two protected areas. Both areas were provided with artificial nests to increase nest-site availability. The first area is a pseudo-steppe characterized by traditional extensive cereal cultivation, whereas the second area is a previous agricultural zone now abandoned or replaced by forested areas. In both areas, lesser kestrels selected extensive agricultural habitats, such as fallows and cereal fields, and avoided scrubland and forests. In the second area, tracked birds from one colony travelled significantly farther distances (6.2 km ±1.7 vs. 1.8 km ±0.4 and 1.9 km ±0.6) and had significant larger foraging-ranges (144 km2 vs. 18.8 and 14.8 km2) when compared to the birds of two colonies in the extensive agricultural area. Longer foraging trips were reflected in lower chick feeding rates, lower fledging success and reduced chick fitness. Availability and occupation of artificial nests was high in both areas but population followed opposite trends, with a positive increment recorded exclusively in the first area with a large proportion of agricultural areas. Progressive habitat loss around the studied colony in the second area (suitable habitat decreased from 32% in 1990 to only 7% in 2002) is likely the main driver of the recorded population decline and suggests that the effectiveness of bird species conservation based on nest-site provisioning is highly constrained by habitat quality in the surrounding areas. Therefore, the conservation of cavity-dependent species may be enhanced firstly by finding the best areas of remaining habitat and secondly by increasing the carrying capacity of high-quality habitat areas

  3. Foraging habitat quality constrains effectiveness of artificial nest-site provisioning in reversing population declines in a colonial cavity nester.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inês Catry

    Full Text Available Among birds, breeding numbers are mainly limited by two resources of major importance: food supply and nest-site availability. Here, we investigated how differences in land-use and nest-site availability affected the foraging behaviour, breeding success and population trends of the colonial cavity-dependent lesser kestrel Falco naumanni inhabiting two protected areas. Both areas were provided with artificial nests to increase nest-site availability. The first area is a pseudo-steppe characterized by traditional extensive cereal cultivation, whereas the second area is a previous agricultural zone now abandoned or replaced by forested areas. In both areas, lesser kestrels selected extensive agricultural habitats, such as fallows and cereal fields, and avoided scrubland and forests. In the second area, tracked birds from one colony travelled significantly farther distances (6.2 km ± 1.7 vs. 1.8 km ± 0.4 and 1.9 km ± 0.6 and had significant larger foraging-ranges (144 km(2 vs. 18.8 and 14.8 km(2 when compared to the birds of two colonies in the extensive agricultural area. Longer foraging trips were reflected in lower chick feeding rates, lower fledging success and reduced chick fitness. Availability and occupation of artificial nests was high in both areas but population followed opposite trends, with a positive increment recorded exclusively in the first area with a large proportion of agricultural areas. Progressive habitat loss around the studied colony in the second area (suitable habitat decreased from 32% in 1990 to only 7% in 2002 is likely the main driver of the recorded population decline and suggests that the effectiveness of bird species conservation based on nest-site provisioning is highly constrained by habitat quality in the surrounding areas. Therefore, the conservation of cavity-dependent species may be enhanced firstly by finding the best areas of remaining habitat and secondly by increasing the carrying capacity of high

  4. Catastrophic Decline of World's Largest Primate: 80% Loss of Grauer's Gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) Population Justifies Critically Endangered Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Stuart; Kujirakwinja, Deo K.; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Critchlow, Rob; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Nishuli, Radar; Kirkby, Andrew E.; Hall, Jefferson S.

    2016-01-01

    Grauer’s gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World’s largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer’s gorilla’s range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer’s gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi-Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82–100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km2. We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer’s gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. PMID:27760201

  5. Climate Warming as a Possible Trigger of Keystone Mussel Population Decline in Oligotrophic Rivers at the Continental Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolotov, Ivan N; Makhrov, Alexander A; Gofarov, Mikhail Yu; Aksenova, Olga V; Aspholm, Paul E; Bespalaya, Yulia V; Kabakov, Mikhail B; Kolosova, Yulia S; Kondakov, Alexander V; Ofenböck, Thomas; Ostrovsky, Andrew N; Popov, Igor Yu; von Proschwitz, Ted; Rudzīte, Mudīte; Rudzītis, Māris; Sokolova, Svetlana E; Valovirta, Ilmari; Vikhrev, Ilya V; Vinarski, Maxim V; Zotin, Alexey A

    2018-01-08

    The effects of climate change on oligotrophic rivers and their communities are almost unknown, albeit these ecosystems are the primary habitat of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel and its host fishes, salmonids. The distribution and abundance of pearl mussels have drastically decreased throughout Europe over the last century, particularly within the southern part of the range, but causes of this wide-scale extinction process are unclear. Here we estimate the effects of climate change on pearl mussels based on historical and recent samples from 50 rivers and 6 countries across Europe. We found that the shell convexity may be considered an indicator of the thermal effects on pearl mussel populations under warming climate because it reflects shifts in summer temperatures and is significantly different in viable and declining populations. Spatial and temporal modeling of the relationship between shell convexity and population status show that global climate change could have accelerated the population decline of pearl mussels over the last 100 years through rapidly decreasing suitable distribution areas. Simulation predicts future warming-induced range reduction, particularly in southern regions. These results highlight the importance of large-scale studies of keystone species, which can underscore the hidden effects of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems.

  6. Adaptive landscapes and density-dependent selection in declining salmonid populations: going beyond numerical responses to human disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einum, Sigurd; Robertsen, Grethe; Fleming, Ian A

    2008-05-01

    Theory suggests an important role for population density in shaping adaptive landscapes through density-dependent selection. Here, we identify five methodological approaches for studying such selection, review the existing empirical evidence for it, and ask whether current declines in abundance can be expected to trigger evolutionary responses in salmonid fishes. Across taxa we find substantial amounts of evidence for population density influencing the location of adaptive peaks for a range of traits, and, in the presence of frequency dependence, changing the shape of selection (stabilizing versus disruptive). For salmonids, biological and theoretical considerations suggest that the optimal value of a number of traits associated with juvenile competitive ability (e.g. egg size, timing of emergence from nests, dominance ability), may depend on population density. For adults, more direct experimental and comparative evidence suggest that secondary sexual traits can be subject to density-dependent selection. There is also evidence that density affects the frequency-dependent selection likely responsible for the expression of alternative male reproductive phenotypes in salmon. Less is known however about the role of density in maintaining genetic variation among juveniles. Further efforts are required to elucidate the indirect evolutionary effects of declining population abundances, both in salmonids and in other anthropogenically challenged organisms.

  7. Re-examining mortality sources and population trends in a declining seabird: using Bayesian methods to incorporate existing information and new data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Reid

    Full Text Available The population of flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes breeding on Lord Howe Island was shown to be declining from the 1970's to the early 2000's. This was attributed to destruction of breeding habitat and fisheries mortality in the Australian Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery. Recent evidence suggests these impacts have ceased; presumably leading to population recovery. We used Bayesian statistical methods to combine data from the literature with more recent, but incomplete, field data to estimate population parameters and trends. This approach easily accounts for sources of variation and uncertainty while formally incorporating data and variation from different sources into the estimate. There is a 70% probability that the flesh-footed shearwater population on Lord Howe continued to decline during 2003-2009, and a number of possible reasons for this are suggested. During the breeding season, road-based mortality of adults on Lord Howe Island is likely to result in reduced adult survival and there is evidence that breeding success is negatively impacted by marine debris. Interactions with fisheries on flesh-footed shearwater winter grounds should be further investigated.

  8. Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Castro-Prieto; S. Martinuzzi; V.C. Radeloff; D.P. Helmers; M. Quiñones; W.A. Gould

    2017-01-01

    Increasing residential development around protected areas is a major threat for protected areas worldwide, and human population growth is often the most important cause. However, population is decreasing in many regions as a result of socio-economic changes, and it is unclear how residential development around protected areas is affected in these situations. We...

  9. The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Neill, BC; Scherbov, S; Lutz, W

    1999-01-01

    Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of

  10. Browsing Patterns of White-Tailed Deer Following Increased Timber Harvest and a Decline in Population Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn M. Crimmins

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50% reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0–5 years postharvest in summer 2007. Clearcut-interior areas had higher woody browse abundance and browsing rates than clearcut-edge or mature forest areas. Woody browse abundance was slightly higher within individual clearcuts than in 2001 at higher population densities and lower timber harvest rates. Overall browsing rates declined from approximately 17% in 2001 to less than 5% during our study, suggesting that the combination of deer population control, and increasing the amount of timber harvest across the landscape can reduce herbivory to levels that may not impede growth and survival of forest vegetation.

  11. Modeling the growth and decline of pathogen effective population size provides insight into epidemic dynamics and drivers of antimicrobial resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volz, Erik M; Didelot, Xavier

    2018-02-07

    Non-parametric population genetic modeling provides a simple and flexible approach for studying demographic history and epidemic dynamics using pathogen sequence data. Existing Bayesian approaches are premised on stochastic processes with stationary increments which may provide an unrealistic prior for epidemic histories which feature extended period of exponential growth or decline. We show that non-parametric models defined in terms of the growth rate of the effective population size can provide a more realistic prior for epidemic history. We propose a non-parametric autoregressive model on the growth rate as a prior for effective population size, which corresponds to the dynamics expected under many epidemic situations. We demonstrate the use of this model within a Bayesian phylodynamic inference framework. Our method correctly reconstructs trends of epidemic growth and decline from pathogen genealogies even when genealogical data is sparse and conventional skyline estimators erroneously predict stable population size. We also propose a regression approach for relating growth rates of pathogen effective population size and time-varying variables that may impact the replicative fitness of a pathogen. The model is applied to real data from rabies virus and Staphylococcus aureus epidemics. We find a close correspondence between the estimated growth rates of a lineage of methicillin-resistant S. aureus and population-level prescription rates of β-lactam antibiotics. The new models are implemented in an open source R package called skygrowth which is available at https://github.com/mrc-ide/skygrowth. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  12. Chronic lack of breeding by Galápagos Blue-footed Boobies and associated population decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Anchundia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A survey of Blue-footed Boobies (Sula nebouxii excisa throughout the taxon's range in Galápagos, Ecuador found ~6400 adults, compared to a rough estimate of 20,000 in the 1960s. Few pairs bred in 2011-2013 and almost no birds in juvenile plumage were seen. Long-term data suggest that poor breeding began in 1998. Lack of recruitment over this period would mean that the current population is mostly elderly and experiencing senescent decline in performance. Anthropogenic effects such as introduced predators are unlikely to explain this decline because islands with and without such factors exhibited the same low breeding. The poor reproduction seems to be linked to diet. Previous work indicated that sardine and herring (Clupeidae supported successful breeding, but these fish were mostly absent from the diet during this study, except in the central part of Galápagos, where most breeding attempts during this study occurred. Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific sardine abundance has decreased dramatically by natural processes in the last 15 years, as part of a well-documented and apparently natural cycle. This cyclic change in abundance provides a possible explanation for the recent demographic changes in Blue-footed Boobies in Galápagos. Whether natural or anthropogenic in origin, the implications of senescent decline in breeding ability and survival are dramatic for this genetically distinct icon of biodiversity and ecotourism.

  13. Feasibility and validity of mobile cognitive testing in the investigation of age-related cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, Pierre; Husky, Mathilde; Allard, Michèle; Amieva, Hélène; Pérès, Karine; Foubert-Samier, Alexandra; Dartigues, Jean-François; Swendsen, Joel

    2017-09-01

    Mobile cognitive testing may be used to help characterize subtle deficits at the earliest stages of cognitive decline. Despite growing interest in this approach, comprehensive information concerning its feasibility and validity has been lacking in elderly samples. Over a one-week period, this study applied mobile cognitive tests of semantic memory, episodic memory and executive functioning in a cohort of 114 elderly non-demented community residents. While the study acceptance rate was moderate (66%), the majority of recruited individuals met minimal compliance thresholds and responded to an average of 82% of the repeated daily assessments. Missing data did not increase over the course of the study, but practice effects were observed for several test scores. However, even when controlling for practice effects, traditional neuropsychological tests were significantly associated with mobile cognitive test scores. In particular, the Isaacs Set Test was associated with mobile assessments of semantic memory (γ = 0.084, t = 5.598, p mobile assessments of episodic memory (γ = 0.069, t = 3.156, p mobile assessments of executive functioning (γ = 0.168, t = 4.562, p Mobile cognitive testing in the elderly may provide complementary and potentially more sensitive data relative to traditional neuropsychological assessment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taggart, M.A.; Cuthbert, R.; Das, D.; Sashikumar, C.; Pain, D.J.; Green, R.E.; Feltrer, Y.; Shultz, S.; Cunningham, A.A.; Meharg, A.A.

    2007-01-01

    Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 μg kg -1 bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high. - Residual diclofenac in livestock carcasses in India poses a continuing risk to Gyps vultures

  15. Diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat with reference to Gyps vulture population declines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taggart, M.A. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); School of Biological Sciences, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU (United Kingdom); Cuthbert, R. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: richard.cuthbert@rspb.org.uk; Das, D. [Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Mumbai, 400023 (India); Sashikumar, C. [Bombay Natural History Society, Hornbill House, Mumbai, 400023 (India); Pain, D.J. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Green, R.E. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Conservation Biology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ (United Kingdom); Feltrer, Y. [Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Shultz, S. [Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL (United Kingdom); Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Cunningham, A.A. [Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent' s Park, London, NW1 4RY (United Kingdom); Meharg, A.A. [School of Biological Sciences, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Aberdeen, AB24 3UU (United Kingdom)

    2007-05-15

    Gyps vultures across India are declining rapidly and the NSAID diclofenac has been shown to be the major cause. Vultures scavenge livestock carcasses that have been treated with diclofenac within the days preceding death. We present data on diclofenac disposition in Indian cow and goat, and field data on the prevalence of diclofenac in carcases in the environment. In the disposition experiment, animals were treated with a single intramuscular injection of diclofenac at 1000 {mu}g kg{sup -1} bw. In cow, diclofenac was detectable in liver, kidney and intestine up to 71 h post-treatment; in plasma, half-life was 12.2 h. In goat, tissue residues were undetectable after 26 h. Prevalence of diclofenac in liver from 36 dead livestock collected in the field was 13.9%. Data suggest that diclofenac residues in Indian cow and goat are short-lived, but diclofenac prevalence in carcasses available to vultures may still be very high. - Residual diclofenac in livestock carcasses in India poses a continuing risk to Gyps vultures.

  16. The decline of the Nile crocodile population in Loskop Dam, Olifants ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-05-18

    May 18, 2010 ... 2 Mpumalanga Tourism and Parks Agency, Scientific Services, PO Box 1250, Groblersdal, 0470, South Africa. 3 Department of Biology, ..... Gland, Switzerland. GRAHAM A (1968) The Lake Rudolf crocodile (Crocodylus niloti cus Laurenti) population. Unpublished Report, Kenya Game. Department, Nairobi.

  17. Host-seeking efficiency can explain population dynamics of the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans morsitans in response to host density decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, Jennifer S; Mthombothi, Zinhle; Lagat, Vitalis K; Atuhaire, Fatumah; Hargrove, John W

    2017-07-01

    Females of all blood-feeding arthropod vectors must find and feed on a host in order to produce offspring. For tsetse-vectors of the trypanosomes that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis-the problem is more extreme, since both sexes feed solely on blood. Host location is thus essential both for survival and reproduction. Host population density should therefore be an important driver of population dynamics for haematophagous insects, and particularly for tsetse, but the role of host density is poorly understood. We investigate the issue using data on changes in numbers of tsetse (Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood) caught during a host elimination experiment in Zimbabwe in the 1960s. During the experiment, numbers of flies caught declined by 95%. We aimed to assess whether models including starvation-dependent mortality could explain observed changes in tsetse numbers as host density declined. An ordinary differential equation model, including starvation-dependent mortality, captured the initial dynamics of the observed tsetse population. However, whereas small numbers of tsetse were caught throughout the host elimination exercise, the modelled population went extinct. Results of a spatially explicit agent-based model suggest that this discrepancy could be explained by immigration of tsetse into the experimental plot. Variation in host density, as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors, may influence tsetse population dynamics in space and time. This has implications for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense transmission. Increased tsetse mortality as a consequence of low host density may decrease trypanosome transmission, but hungrier flies may be more inclined to bite humans, thereby increasing the risk of transmission to humans. Our model provides a way of exploring the role of host density on tsetse population dynamics and could be incorporated into models of trypanosome transmission dynamics to better understand how spatio-temporal variation in

  18. Host-seeking efficiency can explain population dynamics of the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans morsitans in response to host density decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Lord

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Females of all blood-feeding arthropod vectors must find and feed on a host in order to produce offspring. For tsetse-vectors of the trypanosomes that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis-the problem is more extreme, since both sexes feed solely on blood. Host location is thus essential both for survival and reproduction. Host population density should therefore be an important driver of population dynamics for haematophagous insects, and particularly for tsetse, but the role of host density is poorly understood. We investigate the issue using data on changes in numbers of tsetse (Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood caught during a host elimination experiment in Zimbabwe in the 1960s. During the experiment, numbers of flies caught declined by 95%. We aimed to assess whether models including starvation-dependent mortality could explain observed changes in tsetse numbers as host density declined. An ordinary differential equation model, including starvation-dependent mortality, captured the initial dynamics of the observed tsetse population. However, whereas small numbers of tsetse were caught throughout the host elimination exercise, the modelled population went extinct. Results of a spatially explicit agent-based model suggest that this discrepancy could be explained by immigration of tsetse into the experimental plot. Variation in host density, as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors, may influence tsetse population dynamics in space and time. This has implications for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense transmission. Increased tsetse mortality as a consequence of low host density may decrease trypanosome transmission, but hungrier flies may be more inclined to bite humans, thereby increasing the risk of transmission to humans. Our model provides a way of exploring the role of host density on tsetse population dynamics and could be incorporated into models of trypanosome transmission dynamics to better understand how spatio

  19. Declines in populations of Salix caprea L.during forest regeneration after strong herbivore pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz B. Faliński

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Communities of broadleaved forest subject to strong pressure from large herbivores underwent degeneration. The relief of this pressure led to regeneration of the community, in which an important role was played by the sallow Salix caprea and other light-seeded pioneer species of tree (Populus tremula, Betula pendula and B. pubescens. Regeneration involving Salix caprea proceeded following the conservatorial protection of the degenerate stands in a reserve and later in Białowieża National Park. The emergence and development of the population of Salix caprea proceeded following the invasion of spruce, which coincided with the period of enhanced animal pressure on broadleaved forest. Salix caprea filled all the gaps in the tree stand arising as a result of the destruction of trees and undergrowth by herbivores (in the years 1892-1915. It also appeared en masse on old, at that time unforested, clearings and felled areas. In these places, Salix caprea created very abundant populations, with particular trees being in good condition, with a habit typical of forest trees and attaining considerable heights. The majority of trees were 50-60 years old at the time of death, although individuals reached 74 years of age. The process of extinction of the sallow population - observed over 19 years on permanent plots and fixed trees - proceeded very quickly, especially in the first decade of observation. It led to the almost complete disappearance of sallow for the forest communities of Białowieża National Park. The death of individual trees is preceded by impairment of their health and reduced annual increments in the 4-9 last years of life. The extinction of the population is associated with the loss of its primary phenological differentiation and with a change in the sex structure of the population from a prevalence of female trees to a near even distribution of the two sexes. The development of the populations of permanent constituents of the forest

  20. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, Maja; Klok, Chris; Schekkerman, Hans

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in The Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  1. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, M.; Klok, C.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in the Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  2. Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

  3. Recent population decline and selection shape diversity of taxol-related genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgarella, C; Navascués, M; Zabal-Aguirre, M; Berganzo, E; Riba, M; Mayol, M; Vendramin, G G; González-Martínez, S C

    2012-06-01

    Taxanes are defensive metabolites produced by Taxus species (yews) and used in anticancer therapies. Despite their medical interest, patterns of natural diversity in taxane-related genes are unknown. We examined variation at five main genes of Taxus baccata in the Iberian Peninsula, a region where unique yew genetic resources are endangered. We looked at several gene features and applied complementary neutrality tests, including diversity/divergence tests, tests solely based on site frequency spectrum (SFS) and Zeng's compound tests. To account for specific demography, microsatellite data were used to infer historical changes in population size based on an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. Polymorphism-divergence tests pointed to positive selection for genes TBT and TAT and balancing selection for DBAT. In addition, neutrality tests based on SFS found that while a recent reduction in population size may explain most statistics' values, selection may still be in action in genes TBT and DBAT, at least in some populations. Molecular signatures on taxol genes suggest the action of frequent selective waves with different direction or intensity, possibly related to varying adaptive pressures produced by the host-enemy co-evolution on defence-related genes. Such natural selection processes may have produced taxane variants still undiscovered. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Genetic consequences of population decline in Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) populations in the Czech and Slovak Republics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gettová, Lenka; Hájková, Petra

    Supp., - (2011), s. 102 ISSN 0394-1914. [International Otter Colloquium /11./. 30.08.2011-04.09.2011, Pavia] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB600930804 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Eurasian otter * population size Subject RIV: EG - Zoology http://www.internationalottercolloquium2010.eu/files/proceedings_iucn_xi_ioc_2011.pdf

  5. Mixing plants from different origins to restore a declining population: ecological outcomes and local perceptions 10 years later.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Claire Maurice

    Full Text Available Populations of the Large-flowered Sandwort (Arenaria grandiflora L. in the Fontainebleau forest (France have declined rapidly during the last century. Despite the initiation of a protection program in 1991, less than twenty individuals remained by the late 1990s. The low fitness of these last plants, which is likely associated with genetic disorders and inbreeding depression, highlighted the need for the introduction of non-local genetic material to increase genetic diversity and thus restore Fontainebleau populations. Consequently, A. grandiflora was introduced at three distant sites in the Fontainebleau forest in 1999. Each of these populations was composed of an identical mix of individuals of both local and non-local origin that were obtained through in vitro multiplication. After establishment, the population status (number of individuals, diameter of the plants, and number of flowers of the introduced populations was monitored. At present, two populations (one of which is much larger than the other persist, while the third one became extinct in 2004. Analyses of the ecological parameters of the introduction sites indicated that differences in soil pH and moisture might have contributed to the differences in population dynamics. This introduction plan and its outcome attracted interest of local community, with those who supported the plan and regarded its 10-year result as a biological success (i.e., persistent populations were created, but also those who expressed reservations or disapproval of the plan and its outcome. To understand this controversy, a sociological study involving 27 semi-structured interviews was carried out. From these interviews emerged three areas of controversy: alteration of the identity of the plant, alteration of the identity of its territory, and the biological and ethical consequences of the techniques used for the experimental conservation.

  6. Mixing Plants from Different Origins to Restore a Declining Population: Ecological Outcomes and Local Perceptions 10 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurice, Anne-Claire; Abdelkrim, Jawad; Cisel, Matthieu; Zavodna, Monika; Bardin, Philippe; Matamoro, Alexis; Dumez, Richard; Machon, Nathalie

    2013-01-01

    Populations of the Large-flowered Sandwort (Arenaria grandiflora L.) in the Fontainebleau forest (France) have declined rapidly during the last century. Despite the initiation of a protection program in 1991, less than twenty individuals remained by the late 1990s. The low fitness of these last plants, which is likely associated with genetic disorders and inbreeding depression, highlighted the need for the introduction of non-local genetic material to increase genetic diversity and thus restore Fontainebleau populations. Consequently, A. grandiflora was introduced at three distant sites in the Fontainebleau forest in 1999. Each of these populations was composed of an identical mix of individuals of both local and non-local origin that were obtained through in vitro multiplication. After establishment, the population status (number of individuals, diameter of the plants, and number of flowers) of the introduced populations was monitored. At present, two populations (one of which is much larger than the other) persist, while the third one became extinct in 2004. Analyses of the ecological parameters of the introduction sites indicated that differences in soil pH and moisture might have contributed to the differences in population dynamics. This introduction plan and its outcome attracted interest of local community, with those who supported the plan and regarded its 10-year result as a biological success (i.e., persistent populations were created), but also those who expressed reservations or disapproval of the plan and its outcome. To understand this controversy, a sociological study involving 27 semi-structured interviews was carried out. From these interviews emerged three areas of controversy: alteration of the identity of the plant, alteration of the identity of its territory, and the biological and ethical consequences of the techniques used for the experimental conservation. PMID:23349668

  7. Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

    2009-07-01

    Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

  8. Genetic consequences of population decline in the European otter (Lutra lutra): an assessment of microsatellite DNA variation in Danish otters from 1883 to 1993.

    OpenAIRE

    Pertoldi, C.; Hansen, M. M.; Loeschcke, V.; Madsen, A. B.; Jacobsen, L.; Baagoe, H.

    2001-01-01

    The European otter (Lutra lutra) was common in Denmark until the 1960s, but its present distribution encompasses only a minor part of the country. The aim of this study was to assess whether the recent population decline has resulted in loss of genetic variability and to gain further insight into the dynamics of the population decline. This was done by analysing microsatellite DNA variation in contemporary and historical samples, the latter encompassing DNA samples extracted from museum speci...

  9. Can Citizen Science Assist in Determining Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus Presence in a Declining Population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Flower

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The acceptance and application of citizen science has risen over the last 10 years, with this rise likely attributed to an increase in public awareness surrounding anthropogenic impacts affecting urban ecosystems. Citizen science projects have the potential to expand upon data collected by specialist researchers as they are able to gain access to previously unattainable information, consequently increasing the likelihood of an effective management program. The primary objective of this research was to develop guidelines for a successful regional-scale citizen science project following a critical analysis of 12 existing citizen science case studies. Secondly, the effectiveness of these guidelines was measured through the implementation of a citizen science project, Koala Quest, for the purpose of estimating the presence of koalas in a fragmented landscape. Consequently, this research aimed to determine whether citizen-collected data can augment traditional science research methods, by comparing and contrasting the abundance of koala sightings gathered by citizen scientists and professional researchers. Based upon the guidelines developed, Koala Quest methodologies were designed, the study conducted, and the efficacy of the project assessed. To combat the high variability of estimated koala populations due to differences in counting techniques, a national monitoring and evaluation program is required, in addition to a standardised method for conducting koala population estimates. Citizen science is a useful method for monitoring animals such as the koala, which are sparsely distributed throughout a vast geographical area, as the large numbers of volunteers recruited by a citizen science project are capable of monitoring a similarly broad spatial range.

  10. Sugar Deprivation Reduces Insemination of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae), Despite Daily Recruitment of Adults, and Predicts Decline in Model Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    STONE, C. M.; TAYLOR, R. M.; ROITBERG, B. D.; FOSTER, W. A.

    2009-01-01

    Our research tests the hypothesis that the inability to sugar-feed reduces the insemination rate in mosquito populations. To test this, we measured the effects of sugar availability on cumulative insemination performance of male Anopheles gambiae Giles s.s. (Diptera: Culicidae) during 10-d periods of continual emergence of equal numbers of both sexes, and we evaluated the implications at the population level with a matrix population model. On each day of each of four replicates, 20 newly emerged mosquitoes of each sex were recruited into the populations within two mesocosms, large walk-in enclosures with simulated natural conditions. Each mesocosm contained a cage to replicate the experiment on a small scale. Scented sucrose was absent or present (control). A human host was available nightly as a bloodmeal source in both mesocosms. Sugar availability and enclosure size significantly influenced female insemination. In the mesocosms, with sugar 49.7% of the females were inseminated, compared with 10.9% of the females without sugar. In the small cages, the insemination rates were 76.0 and 23.5%, respectively. In the mesocosms, cumulative survival of females after 10 d was 51.6% with sugar and 25.6% without sugar. In the cages, female survival was 95 and 73%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of the population projection matrix shows that both reduced male survival and reduced mating capability due to a lack of sugar contributed to lower insemination rates in females, and in the absence of sugar the insemination rate was lowered to an extent that led to population decline. PMID:19960677

  11. Long-term data reveal a population decline of the tropical lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a negative affect of el nino years on population growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence.

  12. Long-term data reveal a population decline of the tropical lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a negative affect of el nino years on population growth rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Stapley

    Full Text Available Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature. We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence.

  13. Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2016-06-01

    Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

  14. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M Ferreira

    Full Text Available The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008 and white rhinos (2010 together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487 was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956. The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564 overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183. Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  15. Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Sam M; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A; Knight, Mike H; Smit, Izak P J; Pienaar, Danie

    2015-01-01

    The onslaught on the World's rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly's estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.

  16. Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

    2008-10-01

    Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

  17. A 5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: predictions from a mathematical model using field data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Andrew P; Hanger, Jon; Loader, Jo; Ellis, William A H; Callaghan, John; Dexter, Cathryn; Jones, Darryl; Beagley, Kenneth W; Timms, Peter; Wilson, David P

    2014-07-16

    Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level

  18. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  19. Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population: a 5-year prospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Shihui; Liu, Chunling; Luo, Leiming; Ye, Ping

    2017-11-09

    Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to renal function decline are more significant in Chinese community-dwelling population without glomerular filtration rate (GFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and long-term prospective study is an optimal choice to explore this problem. Aim of this analysis was to observe this problem during the follow-up of 5 years. In a large medical check-up program in Beijing, there were 948 participants with renal function evaluated at baseline and follow-up of 5 years. Physical examinations were performed by well-trained physicians. Blood samples were analyzed by qualified technicians in central laboratory. Median rate of renal function decline was 1.46 (0.42-2.91) mL/min/1.73m 2 /year. Rapid decline of renal function had a prevalence of 23.5% (223 participants). Multivariate linear and Logistic regression analyses confirmed that age, sex, baseline GFR, homocysteine and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) had independently predictive abilities to renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p rapid decline of renal function (p > 0.05 for all). Homocysteine and NT-proBNP rather than hs-cTnT had independently predictive abilities to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population without GFR below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . Baseline GFR was an independent factor predicting the rapid decline of renal function. Arterial stiffness and compliance had no independent effect on rapid decline of renal function. This analysis has a significant implication for public health, and changing the homocysteine and NT-proBNP levels might slow the rapid decline of renal function.

  20. A global threats overview for Numeniini populations: synthesising expert knowledge for a group of declining migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Brown, Daniel J.; Douglas, David T.; Alves, José A.; Bellio, Mariagrazia; Bocher, Pierrick; Buchannan, Graeme M.; Clay, Robert P.; Conklin, Jesse R.; Crockford, Nicola; Dann, Peter; Elts, Jaanus; Friis, Christian; Fuller, Richard A.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gosbell, Ken; Johnson, James A.; Marquez-Ferrando, Rocio; Masero, José A.; Melville, David S.; Millington, Spike; Minton, Clive; Mundkur, Taej; Nol, Erika; Pehlak, Hannes; Piersma, Theunis; Rogers, Danny I.; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Senner, Nathan R.; Nazeer Shah, Junid; Sheldon, Rob D.; Soloviev, Sergej A.; Tomkovich, Pavel S.; Verkuil, Yvonne I.

    2017-01-01

    current population declines of many Numeniini species and provide a template for the conservation of other groups of threatened species.

  1. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo; Maravelias, Christos; Kavadas, Stefanos; Damalas, Dimitros; Cartes, Joan E; Osio, Giacomo

    2011-01-01

    We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods) compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery). The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional) of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase). This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales) were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th) century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades) of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  2. Childhood death rates declined in Sweden from 2000-2014 but deaths from external causes were not always investigated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, Gabriel; Lahne, Klara; Arkema, Elizabeth V; Lucas, Steven; Janson, Staffan; Hellström-Westas, Lena

    2018-03-08

    Countries that conduct systematic child death reviews report a high proportion of modifiable characteristics among deaths from external causes and this study examined the trends in Sweden. We analysed individual level data on external, ill-defined and unknown causes from the Swedish cause of death register from 2000-2014 and mortality rates were estimated for children under the age of one and for those aged 1-14 and 15-17 years. Child deaths from all causes were 7,914 and 2,006 (25%) were from external, ill-defined and unknown causes: 610 (30%) were infants, 692 (34%) were 1-14 and 704 (35%) were 15-17. The annual average was 134 cases (range 99-156) during the study period. Mortality rates from external, ill-defined and unknown causes in children under 18 fell 19%, from 7.4 to 6.0 per 100,000 population. A sizeable number of infant deaths (8.0%) were registered without a death certificate during the study period, but these counts were lower in children aged 1-14 (1.3%) and 15-17 (0.9%). Childhood deaths showed a sustained decline from 2000-2014 in Sweden and a quarter were from external, ill-defined or unknown causes. Systematic, interagency death reviews could yield information that could prevent future deaths. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Decline in Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus populations during the maturation of experimentally contaminated parmesan-type cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Ramirez Starikoff

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian legislation allows the manufacture of raw milk cheese with a maturation exceeding 60 days at room temperature above 5°C, but there is a lack of solid scientific evidence on the efficacy of this maturation process in inactivating important pathogens that may be present in milk, such as Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella abortus. Thus, the objectives of this study were to produce parmesan-type cheese experimentally contaminated with M. bovis and B. abortus and evaluate the survival of these pathogens along 2-month maturation. Parmesan-type cheese was manufactured in the laboratory using whole pasteurized milk with or without inoculation with M. bovis (SB1033 or B. abortus (1119-3 and matured at 18°C for up to 63 days. M. bovis was inoculated in Stonebrink-Leslie medium supplemented with antibiotics and incubated at 37°C for 45 days, and B. abortus was incubated in Farrel medium at 36°C for 3 days. The average D18°C value, weighted by variance, was 37.5 ± 5.3 days for M. bovis and 5.9 ± 0.7 days for B. abortus. The average physicochemical parameters in the cheese at the end of the study were as follows: pH = 4.89, water activity = 0.976, and moisture percentage = 43.1%. The pH might have contributed to the reduction in the population of B. abortus but seems not to have influenced the population of M. bovis. We conclude that the duration of the maturation process influences the size of the surviving populations of M. bovis and B. abortus, and that the shortening of the maturation duration might not ensure a decline in pathogen levels to safe levels. Thus, complementary studies considering the effect of several other technological aspects on the survival of these pathogens are required, including the effect of the lactic acid bacterial population, salt content, and temperature of maturation.

  4. Duration of unemployment and suicide in Australia over the period 1985-2006: an ecological investigation by sex and age during rising versus declining national unemployment rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner, Allison; Page, Andrew; LaMontagne, Anthony D

    2013-03-01

    The relationship between unemployment and suicide may be sensitive to demographic factors, national unemployment rates, and length of time without employment. This study investigated these factors in relation to suicide in Australia for the period 1985-2006, in an ecological study. The outcome variable was annual suicide rate by age group, sex and the eight states and territories over 22 years of observation (total observations=1760). The main predictor variable was the average duration of unemployment in the population, categorised into three time periods (4 weeks). Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relationship between duration of unemployment and suicide over the years 1985-2006 in a series of cross-sectional analyses. Interaction analyses indicated significant differences during periods of declining or increasing labour market opportunity and by age group. During periods of declining unemployment rates in the country, longer durations of unemployment were associated with higher male suicide rates. During periods of increasing unemployment in the country, longer unemployment duration was associated with lower male suicide rates. Effect modification was also apparent by age-group, with stronger associations between unemployment duration and male suicide evident in those aged 25-34 and 55-64, and weaker associations in those aged 15-24 and 44-54 years. Longer length of unemployment was not associated with an increase in female suicide rates. The labour market opportunities in Australia modified the effect of duration of unemployment on suicide, and the effect was more prominent in men and older age groups. This may reflect social norms and acceptability about unemployment, as well as life-stage influences associated with transitions into and out of the labour market.

  5. Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2018-01-22

    Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Genetic consequences of population decline in the European otter ( Lutra lutra ) : an assessment of microsatellite DNA variation in Danish otters from 1883 to 1993

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pertoldi, C.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Loeschcke, V.

    2001-01-01

    The European otter (Lutra lutra) was common in Denmark until the 1960s, but its present distribution encompasses only a minor part of the country. The aim of this study was to assess whether the recent population decline has resulted in loss of genetic variability and to gain further insight...... alleles, suggested that a drastic long-term population decline has taken place, which could have started more than 2000 years ago, possibly due to ancient anthropogenic pressure. Finally, assignment tests and pairwise F-ST values suggested weak but statistically significant genetic differentiation between...... the extant population and historical samples of otters from other regions in Denmark, more likely reflecting differentiation among original populations rather than recent drift....

  7. Hydroperiod and cattle use associated with lower recruitment in an r-selected amphibian with a declining population trend in the Klamath Mountains, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esther M. Cole; Rosemary Hartman; Malcolm P. North

    2016-01-01

    Recent population declines in amphibians associated with mortality in early life stages highlight the need for a better understanding of the environmental factors related to successful survival to metamorphosis. In our study, we closely examine the relative importance of environmental factors to three stages of recruitment for Cascade frogs (Rana cascadae...

  8. Combining the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale and the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly to Improve Detection of Dementia in an Arabic-Speaking Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, T. Rune; Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Chaaya, Monique

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess whether combining the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale (RUDAS) and Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) could improve diagnostic accuracy when screening for dementia in an Arabic-speaking population wi...

  9. The declining Spadefoot toad, Pelobates fuscus (Pelobatidae): Paleo and recent environmental changes as a major influence on current population structure and status

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eggert, C.; Cogalniceanu, D.; Veith, M.K.H.; Dzukic, G.; Taberlet, P.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of the European Spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus) have experienced recent declines all over Europe, but these appear to be more intense in north and western Europe. Due to the toad's fossorial nature and specific habitat requirements, environmental conditions have played a major role in

  10. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  11. Oak Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip M. Wargo; David R. Houston; Leon A. LaMadeleine

    1983-01-01

    Periodic occurrences of decline and death of oaks over widespread areas have been recorded since 1900. These outbreaks, variously named oak decline, oak dieback, or oak mortality, are caused by a complex interaction of environmental stresses and pests and given the name oak decline.

  12. Oak Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon Ammon; T. Evan Nebeker; Ted H. Filer; Francis I. McCracken; J. D. Solomon; H. E. Kennedy

    1989-01-01

    Occurrence of decline and mortality in this nation's hardwood forests has been documented in reports for the past 130 years. From 1856 through 1981, more than 26 decline events were reported from eight eastern states affecting almost all species of oaks. Fourteen factors have been implicated as either primary or secondary agents responsible for decline and...

  13. Investigation of age-related decline of microfibril-associated glycoprotein-1 in human skin through immunohistochemistry study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Q

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Qian Zheng, Siming Chen, Ying Chen, John Lyga, Russell Wyborski, Uma SanthanamGlobal Research and Development, Avon Products Inc., Suffern, New York, USAAbstract: During aging, the reduction of elastic and collagen fibers in dermis can lead to skin atrophy, fragility, and aged appearance, such as increased facial wrinkling and sagging. Microfibril-associated glycoprotein-1 (MAGP-1 is an extracellular matrix protein critical for elastic fiber assembly. It integrates and stabilizes the microfibril and elastin matrix network that helps the skin to endure mechanical stretch and recoil. However, the observation of MAGP-1 during skin aging and its function in the dermis has not been established. To better understand age-related changes in the dermis, we investigated MAGP-1 during skin aging and photoaging, using a combination of in vitro and in vivo studies. Gene expression by microarray was performed using human skin biopsies from young and aged female donors. In addition, immunofluorescence analysis on the MAGP-1 protein was performed in dermal fibroblast cultures and in human skin biopsies. Specific antibodies against MAGP-1 and fibrillin-1 were used to examine protein expression and extracellular matrix structure in the dermis via biopsies from donors of multiple age groups. A reduction of the MAGP-1 gene and protein levels were observed in human skin with increasing age and photoexposure, indicating a loss of the functional MAGP-1 fiber network and a lack of structural support in the dermis. Loss of MAGP-1 around the hair follicle/pore areas was also observed, suggesting a possible correlation between MAGP-1 loss and enlarged pores in aged skin. Our findings demonstrate that a critical “pre-elasticity” component, MAGP-1, declines with aging and photoaging. Such changes may contribute to age-related loss of dermal integrity and perifollicular structural support, which may lead to skin fragility, sagging, and enlarged pores

  14. Rate of Decline of the Oriental White-Backed Vulture Population in India Estimated from a Survey of Diclofenac Residues in Carcasses of Ungulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Rhys E.; Taggart, Mark A.; Senacha, Kalu Ram; Raghavan, Bindu; Pain, Deborah J.; Jhala, Yadvendradev; Cuthbert, Richard

    2007-01-01

    The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac is a major cause of the rapid declines in the Indian subcontinent of three species of vultures endemic to South Asia. The drug causes kidney failure and death in vultures. Exposure probably arises through vultures feeding on carcasses of domesticated ungulates treated with the drug. However, before the study reported here, it had not been established from field surveys of ungulate carcasses that a sufficient proportion was contaminated to cause the observed declines. We surveyed diclofenac concentrations in samples of liver from carcasses of domesticated ungulates in India in 2004–2005. We estimated the concentration of diclofenac in tissues available to vultures, relative to that in liver, and the proportion of vultures killed after feeding on a carcass with a known level of contamination. We assessed the impact of this mortality on vulture population trend with a population model. We expected levels of diclofenac found in ungulate carcasses in 2004–2005 to cause oriental white-backed vulture population declines of 80–99% per year, depending upon the assumptions used in the model. This compares with an observed rate of decline, from road transect counts, of 48% per year in 2000–2003. The precision of the estimate based upon carcass surveys is low and the two types of estimate were not significantly different. Our analyses indicate that the level of diclofenac contamination found in carcasses of domesticated ungulates in 2004–2005 was sufficient to account for the observed rapid decline of the oriental white-backed vulture in India. The methods we describe could be used again to assess changes in the effect on vulture population trend of diclofenac and similar drugs. In this way, the effectiveness of the recent ban in India on the manufacture and importation of diclofenac for veterinary use could be monitored. PMID:17668064

  15. Impact of tooth loss on walking speed decline over time in older adults: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welmer, Anna-Karin; Rizzuto, Debora; Parker, Marti G; Xu, Weili

    2017-08-01

    Tooth loss has been linked to poor health such as chronic diseases and mobility limitations. Prospective evidence on the association between tooth loss and walking speed decline is however lacking. To examine the impact of tooth loss on walking speed over time and explore whether inflammation may account for this association. This study included 2695 persons aged 60 years and older, who were free from severe mobility limitation at baseline. Information on dental status was assessed through self-report during the nurse interview at baseline. Walking speed baseline and at 3- and 6-year follow-ups was assessed when participants walked at their usual pace. Covariates included age, sex, education, lifestyle-related factors, and chronic diseases. Blood samples were taken, and C-reactive protein (CRP) was tested. At baseline, 389 (13.1 %) participants had partial tooth loss and 204 (6.9 %) had complete tooth loss. Mixed-effects models showed that tooth loss was associated with a greater decline in walking speed over time after adjustment for lifestyle-related factors and chronic diseases (p = 0.001 for interaction between time and tooth loss on walking speed decline); however, when further adjusting for inflammation (CRP), the association was attenuated and no longer significant. Tooth loss was associated with an accelerated decline in walking speed in older adults. Inflammation may play a role in the association between tooth loss and walking speed decline.

  16. Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

    2007-01-01

    RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981......-1983, and followed until 1991-1994. Mean level of physical activity between baseline and follow-up was classified into "low," "moderate," and "high." FEV(1) and FVC decline rates were expressed as milliliters per year. COPD was defined as FEV(1)/FVC physical activity and FEV...

  17. The recent decline of Montastraea annularis (complex coral populations in western Curaçao: a cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W Bruckner

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Shallow leeward reefs off the western end of Curaçao are dominated by extensive populations of M. annularis (complex. These species are larger in size (mean= 66 cm diameter than all other species, with few small colonies (10 cm observed within transects, and most exhibited low levels of partial mortality (mean= 22.5%. These species were less abundant (38% of all colonies in 2005. Partial mortality among live colonies of M. annularis and M. faveolata increased by 85% (mean = 42% partial mortality and numerous dead colonies of M. faveolata and M. annularis were observed; M. franksi colonies were generally in excellent condition (14% partial tissue mortality. A high prevalence of coral diseases (3-30% was documented among M. annularis and M. faveolata, while all other species were less frequently affected. Yellow band disease (YBD emerged shortly after the 1995 bleaching event, and rapidly spread throughout all depths, with the highest prevalence between 1997-1999. YBD caused slow rates of mortality (=1 cm/month, but multiple focal lesions appeared on individual colonies, and these progressively radiated outward as they killed the colonies. By 2005, 44% of the tagged corals were dead; the remainder exhibited active YBD infections (21% or were in remission (31.6% but were missing on average >90% of their tissue. Although the incidence of YBD has declined since 2000, white plague (WP prevalence was unusually high (4-12% in 2001 and 2005, with affected colonies exhibiting recent mortality of up to 70%. Dead Montastraea spp. surfaces are being colonized by other corals, including poritids, agaricids, and other faviids, while recruits of M. annularis (complex are absent. If diseases and other biotic stressors persist on these reefs, M. annularis and M. faveolata populations may undergo a decline similar to that observed in the 1980s among Caribbean acroporids. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (Suppl. 3: 45- 58. Epub 2007 Jan. 15.Los arrecifes someros a sotavento

  18. Population structure of Salmonella investigated by amplified fragment length polymorphism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torpdahl, M.; Ahrens, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Aims: This study was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) in determining the population structure of Salmonella. Methods and Results: A total of 89 strains were subjected to AFLP analysis using the enzymes BglII and BspDI, a combination...

  19. Investigation of the decline in reported smoking-caused wildfires in the USA from 2000 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Douglas S. Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The number of smoking-caused wildfires has been falling nationwide. In national forests in 2011, smoking-caused wildfires represented only 10% of their 1980 level. No other cause of wildfire has experienced this level of decline. For 12 states, we evaluate the rate of smoking-caused wildfires and find it is a function of weather, other ignitions, the number of adult...

  20. Culturable bacterial populations associated with ectomycorrhizae of Norway spruce stands with different degrees of decline in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Avidano, L.; Rinaldi, M.; Gindro, R.; Cudlín, Pavel; Martinotti, M G.; Fracchia, L.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 1 (2010), s. 52-64 ISSN 0008-4166 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Ectomycorrhizae * Norway spruce * forest decline Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 1.235, year: 2010

  1. The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnaz Shakersain

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077−0.201 and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175−0.300 to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080−0.386 and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70. Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

  2. The catastrophic decline of the Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in Sabah: Historic exploitation, reduced female reproductive performance and population viability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kretzschmar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for catastrophic declines of Sumatran rhinos are far from clear and data necessary to improve decisions for conservation management are often lacking. We reviewed literature and assembled a comprehensive data set on surveys of the Sumatran rhino subspecies (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni in the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo to chart the historical development of the population in Sabah and its exploitation until the present day. We fitted resource selection functions to identify habitat features preferred by a remnant population of rhinos living in the Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, and ran a series of population viability analyses (PVAs to extract the key demographic parameters most likely to affect population dynamics. We show that as preferred habitat, the individuals in the reserve were most likely encountered in elevated areas away from roads, in close distance to mud-volcanoes, with a low presence of human trespassers and a wallow on site, and within a neighbourhood of dense forest and grassland patches preferably on Fluvisols and Acrisols. Our population viability analyses identified the percentage of breeding females and female lifetime reproductive period as the crucial parameters driving population dynamics, in combination with total protection even moderate improvements could elevate population viability substantially. The analysis also indicates that unrestrained hunting between 1930 and 1950 drastically reduced the historical rhino population in Sabah and that the remnant population could be rescued by combining the effort of total protection and stimulation of breeding activity. Based on our results, we recommend to translocate isolated reproductively healthy individuals to protected locations and to undertake measures to maximise conceptions, or running state-of-the-art reproductive management with assisted reproduction techniques. Our study demonstrates that a judicious combination of techniques can do

  3. Investigation on efficiency declines due to spectral overlap between LDAs pump and laser medium in high power double face pumped slab laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Ye; Chen, Yanzhong; Liao, Lifen; Guo, Guangyan; He, Jianguo; Fan, Zhongwei

    2018-03-01

    In high power diode lasers, the input cooling water temperature would affect both output power and output spectrum. In double face pumped slab laser, the spectrum of two laser diode arrays (LDAs) must be optimized for efficiency reason. The spectrum mismatch of two LDAs would result in energy storing decline. In this work, thermal induced efficiency decline due to spectral overlap between high power LDAs and laser medium was investigated. A numerical model was developed to describe the energy storing variation with changing LDAs cooling water temperature and configuration (series/parallel connected). A confirmatory experiment was conducted using a double face pumped slab module. The experiment results show good agreements with simulations.

  4. Brain Amyloid Deposition and Longitudinal Cognitive Decline in Nondemented Older Subjects: Results from a Multi-Ethnic Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yian Gu

    Full Text Available We aimed to whether the abnormally high amyloid-β (Aβ level in the brain among apparently healthy elders is related with subtle cognitive deficits and/or accelerated cognitive decline.A total of 116 dementia-free participants (mean age 84.5 years of the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project completed 18F-Florbetaben PET imaging. Positive or negative cerebral Aβ deposition was assessed visually. Quantitative cerebral Aβ burden was calculated as the standardized uptake value ratio in pre-established regions of interest using cerebellar cortex as the reference region. Cognition was determined using a neuropsychological battery and selected tests scores were combined into four composite scores (memory, language, executive/speed, and visuospatial using exploratory factor analysis. We examined the relationship between cerebral Aβ level and longitudinal cognition change up to 20 years before the PET scan using latent growth curve models, controlling for age, education, ethnicity, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype.Positive reading of Aβ was found in 41 of 116 (35% individuals. Cognitive scores at scan time was not related with Aβ. All cognitive scores declined over time. Aβ positive reading (B = -0.034, p = 0.02 and higher Aβ burden in temporal region (B = -0.080, p = 0.02 were associated with faster decline in executive/speed. Stratified analyses showed that higher Aβ deposition was associated with faster longitudinal declines in mean cognition, language, and executive/speed in African-Americans or in APOE ε4 carriers, and with faster memory decline in APOE ε4 carriers. The associations remained significant after excluding mild cognitive impairment participants.High Aβ deposition in healthy elders was associated with decline in executive/speed in the decade before neuroimaging, and the association was observed primarily in African-Americans and APOE ε4 carriers. Our results suggest that measuring cerebral Aβ may give us

  5. Population declines lead to replicate patterns of internal range structure at the tips of the distribution of the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Backlin, Adam R.; Tatarian, Patricia J.; Solvesky, Ben G.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic declines and increased isolation of peripheral populations of the threatened California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii) have led to the formation of internal range boundaries at opposite ends of the species’ distribution. While the population genetics of the southern internal boundary has been studied in some detail, similar information is lacking for the northern part of the range. In this study, we used microsatellite and mtDNA data to examine the genetic structuring and diversity of some of the last remaining R. draytonii populations in the northern Sierra Nevada, which collectively form the northern external range boundary. We compared these data to coastal populations in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the species is notably more abundant and still exists throughout much of its historic range. We show that ‘external’ Sierra Nevada populations have lower genetic diversity and are more differentiated from one another than their ‘internal’ Bay Area counterparts. This same pattern was mirrored across the distribution in California, where Sierra Nevada and Bay Area populations had lower allelic variability compared to those previously studied in coastal southern California. This genetic signature of northward range expansion was mirrored in the phylogeography of mtDNA haplotypes; northern Sierra Nevada haplotypes showed greater similarity to haplotypes from the south Coast Ranges than to the more geographically proximate populations in the Bay Area. These data cast new light on the geographic origins of Sierra Nevada R. draytonii populations and highlight the importance of distinguishing the genetic effects of contemporary demographic declines from underlying signatures of historic range expansion when addressing the most immediate threats to population persistence. Because there is no evidence of contemporary gene flow between any of the Sierra Nevada R. draytonii populations, we suggest that management activities should focus on

  6. Breeding season food limitation drives population decline of the Little Owl Athene noctua in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Sunde, Peter; Jacobsen, Lars B.

    2010-01-01

    Many farmland bird species have declined markedly in Europe in recent decades because of changes in agricultural practice. The specific causes vary and are poorly known for many species. The Little Owl, which feeds extensively on large invertebrates and is strongly associated with the agricultural...... number of fledglings declined from around 3 to size was considerably less. Reproductive parameters were higher closer to habitat types known to be important foraging habitats for Little Owls, and were also positively correlated with the amount...... of seasonally changing land cover (mostly farmland) within a 1-km radius around nests as well as temperatures before and during the breeding season. Experimental food supplementation to breeding pairs increased the proportion of eggs that resulted in fledged young from 27 to 79%, supporting the hypothesis...

  7. Social Participation and the Prevention of Decline in Effectance among Community-Dwelling Elderly: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimiko Tomioka

    Full Text Available We examined the association between a decline in effectance and social participation (SP from the perspective of the number and the type of SP in a prospective cohort study.Included in this analysis were community-dwelling elderly aged ≥ 65 without dependency on the basic activities of daily living and reporting a perfect baseline effectance score (n = 4,588; mean age 72.8 ± 5.7. SP was categorized into 5 types: neighborhood associations, hobby groups, local event groups, senior citizen clubs, and volunteer groups. Effectance was evaluated using the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence. Using logistic regression analysis, odds ratio (OR and a 95% confidence interval (CI for a decline in effectance were calculated. Age, family, BMI, pensions, medical history, medications, alcohol, smoking, cognitive function, depression, social support, ADL, and IADL were used as covariates.During the 3-year follow-up, 17.8% of eligible participants reported a decline in effectance. After adjustment for covariates, participation in various groups was associated with the preservation of effectance for both genders. Regarding the type of SP, among females, participation in neighborhood associations (OR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.48-0.81, hobby groups (0.58, 0.43-0.77, local event groups (0.63, 0.47-0.86, and volunteer groups (0.53, 0.35-0.82 was inversely associated with a decline in effectance. Among males, the beneficial effect was more likely limited to hobby groups (0.59, 0.43-0.81 and volunteer groups (0.57, 0.39-0.83.Our results suggest that participation in a variety of social groups is effective for maintenance of older people's effectance, while the beneficial effect of each type of SP on effectance is stronger for females than for males. Recommending community-dwelling elderly to participate in social groups appropriate for their gender may be effective for successful aging.

  8. Declining prevalence of pulmonary paragonimiasis following treatment & community education in a remote tribal population of Arunachal Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narain, Kanwar; Devi, K Rekha; Bhattacharya, S; Negmu, K; Rajguru, S K; Mahanta, Jagadish

    2015-05-01

    In India, human pulmonary paragonimiasis is an important public health problem in the northeastern (NE) region. In 2005 we reported a hyperendemic focus of paragonimiasis in a remote tribal village in the hills of Changlang district in Arunachal Pradesh. The community was made aware of the disease and all active cases were treated. This study was aimed to assess the decline in the prevelance of paragonimiasis in the same area after a re-survey done in 2011 after a gap of six years. Re-surveys were carried to determine the reduction in the prevalence of paragonimiasis. Community education was given to the villagers to raise their awareness about paragonimiasis. A total of 624 individuals including 301 children (age 15 yr) were included in the study. Sputum and stool samples were examined for eggs of lung flukes. Serum samples were screened for IgG antibodies against lung fluke antigen by ELISA. A significant (P 31 yr, the decline in prevalence was from 15.3 to 3.7 per cent. Gender-wise analysis revealed that the decline in ELISA positivity was similar in both genders and fell down from 33.9 to 11.5 per cent in males and from 29.8 to 10.7 per cent in females. Similarly, there was a significant decline rate in egg positivity also. The strategy of hotspot targeted active paragonimiasis case detection and treatment of infected cases together with community education appears to be feasible methods to achieve control of paragonimiasis in this region.

  9. Two Different Populations within the Healthy Elderly: Lack of Conflict Detection in Those at Risk of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio M. Sánchez-Moguel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During healthy aging, inhibitory processing is affected at the sensorial, perceptual, and cognitive levels. The assessment of event-related potentials (ERPs during the Stroop task has been used to study age-related decline in the efficiency of inhibitory processes. Studies using ERPs have found that the P300 amplitude increases and the N500 amplitude is attenuated in healthy elderly adults compared to those in young adults. On the other hand, it has been reported that theta excess in resting EEG with eyes closed is a good predictor of cognitive decline during aging 7 years later, while a normal EEG increases the probability of not developing cognitive decline. The behavioral and ERP responses during a Counting-Stroop task were compared between 22 healthy elderly subjects with normal EEG (Normal-EEG group and 22 healthy elderly subjects with an excess of EEG theta activity (Theta-EEG group. Behaviorally, the Normal-EEG group showed a higher behavioral interference effect than the Theta-EEG group. ERP patterns were different between the groups, and two facts are highlighted: (a the P300 amplitude was higher in the Theta-EEG group, with both groups showing a P300 effect in almost all electrodes, and (b the Theta-EEG group did not show an N500 effect. These results suggest that the diminishment in inhibitory control observed in the Theta-EEG group may be compensated by different processes in earlier stages, which would allow them to perform the task with similar efficiency to that of participants with a normal EEG. This study is the first to show that healthy elderly subjects with an excess of theta EEG activity not only are at risk of developing cognitive decline but already have a cognitive impairment.

  10. The impact of birth weight on the level of lung function and lung function decline in the general adult population. The Inter99 study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, Sophie; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Lange, Peter

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between low birth weight and low adult lung function, but findings have not been consistent. The aim of this study was to investigate whether birth weight is associated with both the level and the decline in adult lung function in general......'s age at birth, parity, prematurity, multiple pregnancy, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors and lung symptoms as covariates. RESULTS: Birth weight was positively associated with spirometric variables. For a 1 kg increase in birth weight, FEV1 increased by 86 ml (CI95%: 34-139) and FVC by 88 ml (CI95......1 and FVC. CONCLUSION: Low birth weight was significantly associated with lower adult FEV1 and FVC but not with the decline in these variables during a 5-year observation. Although FEV1/FVC ratio was not related to birth weight, persons with low birth weight experienced a steeper decline...

  11. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  12. Failure to Respond to Food Resource Decline Has Catastrophic Consequences for Koalas in a High-Density Population in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desley A Whisson

    Full Text Available Understanding the ability of koalas to respond to changes in their environment is critical for conservation of the species and their habitat. We monitored the behavioural response of koalas to declining food resources in manna gum (Eucalyptus viminalis woodland at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia, from September 2011 to November 2013. Over this period, koala population density increased from 10.1 to 18.4 koalas.ha-1. As a result of the high browsing pressure of this population, manna gum canopy condition declined with 71.4% manna gum being completely or highly defoliated in September 2013. Despite declining food resources, radio collared koalas (N = 30 exhibited high fidelity to small ranges (0.4-1.2 ha. When trees became severely defoliated in September 2013, koalas moved relatively short distances from their former ranges (mean predicted change in range centroid = 144 m and remained in areas of 0.9 to 1.0 ha. This was despite the high connectivity of most manna gum woodland, and close proximity of the study site (< 3 km to the contiguous mixed forest of the Great Otway National Park. Limited movement had catastrophic consequences for koalas with 71% (15/21 of radio collared koalas dying from starvation or being euthanased due to their poor condition between September and November 2013.

  13. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

    2003-09-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates

  14. Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

    2002-07-01

    Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend

  15. Declining incidence of candidemia and the shifting epidemiology of Candida resistance in two US metropolitan areas, 2008-2013: results from population-based surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Angela Ahlquist; Harrison, Lee H; Farley, Monica M; Hollick, Rosemary; Stein, Betsy; Chiller, Tom M; Lockhart, Shawn R; Park, Benjamin J

    2015-01-01

    Recent reports have demonstrated a decline in bacterial bloodstream infections (BSIs) following adherence to central line insertion practices; however, declines have been less evident for BSIs due to Candida species. We conducted active, population-based laboratory surveillance for candidemia in metropolitan Atlanta, GA and Baltimore, MD over a 5-year period. We calculated annual candidemia incidence and antifungal drug resistance rates. We identified 3,848 candidemia cases from 2008-2013. Compared with 2008, candidemia incidence per 100,000 person-years decreased significantly by 2013 in both locations (GA: 14.1 to 9.5, pcandidemia over a five-year period, and increases in echinocandin-resistant and MDR Candida. Efforts to strengthen infection control practices may be preventing candidemia among high-risk patients. Further surveillance for resistant Candida is warranted.

  16. Declining Incidence of Candidemia and the Shifting Epidemiology of Candida Resistance in Two US Metropolitan Areas, 2008–2013: Results from Population-Based Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Angela Ahlquist; Harrison, Lee H.; Farley, Monica M.; Hollick, Rosemary; Stein, Betsy; Chiller, Tom M.; Lockhart, Shawn R.; Park, Benjamin J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Recent reports have demonstrated a decline in bacterial bloodstream infections (BSIs) following adherence to central line insertion practices; however, declines have been less evident for BSIs due to Candida species. Methods We conducted active, population-based laboratory surveillance for candidemia in metropolitan Atlanta, GA and Baltimore, MD over a 5-year period. We calculated annual candidemia incidence and antifungal drug resistance rates. Results We identified 3,848 candidemia cases from 2008–2013. Compared with 2008, candidemia incidence per 100,000 person-years decreased significantly by 2013 in both locations (GA: 14.1 to 9.5, pcandidemia over a five-year period, and increases in echinocandin-resistant and MDR Candida. Efforts to strengthen infection control practices may be preventing candidemia among high-risk patients. Further surveillance for resistant Candida is warranted. PMID:25822249

  17. Declining Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, W Andrew; Thompson, Frank R; Root, Brian; Faaborg, John

    2012-01-01

    Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce parasitism pressure and thus increase productivity of host species. We used 20 years of nest monitoring data from five sites in Missouri across a gradient of landscape forest cover to assess temporal trends in the rate and intensity of brood parasitism for Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens), Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea), and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis). We evaluated whether there were concomitant changes in fledging brood size, nest survival, a combination of the two metrics (i.e., host young produced per nest attempt), and whether such changes were more substantial with decreasing landscape forest cover. Parasitism rates and intensities declined substantially during 1991-2010. Fledging brood size and nest survival rates were positively associated with landscape forest cover, confirming the fragmentation hypothesis for Midwest forest birds. Declining parasitism rates were associated with increased fledging brood sizes, with more pronounced increases as landscape forest cover decreased. Nest survival increased insubstantially across time during laying and incubation, but not during the nestling stage. The best predictor of nest survival was parasitism status, with parasitized nests surviving at lower rates than unparasitized nests. Overall, productivity increased during 1991-2010, with more pronounced increases associated with lower levels of landscape forest cover. The negative effects of cowbirds on nest survival in addition to fledging brood size in less forested landscapes suggest that cowbirds may be a primary cause of forest fragmentation effects on songbird productivity in the Midwest. Our

  18. Declining Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Andrew Cox

    Full Text Available Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater, which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce parasitism pressure and thus increase productivity of host species. We used 20 years of nest monitoring data from five sites in Missouri across a gradient of landscape forest cover to assess temporal trends in the rate and intensity of brood parasitism for Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens, Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea, and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis. We evaluated whether there were concomitant changes in fledging brood size, nest survival, a combination of the two metrics (i.e., host young produced per nest attempt, and whether such changes were more substantial with decreasing landscape forest cover. Parasitism rates and intensities declined substantially during 1991-2010. Fledging brood size and nest survival rates were positively associated with landscape forest cover, confirming the fragmentation hypothesis for Midwest forest birds. Declining parasitism rates were associated with increased fledging brood sizes, with more pronounced increases as landscape forest cover decreased. Nest survival increased insubstantially across time during laying and incubation, but not during the nestling stage. The best predictor of nest survival was parasitism status, with parasitized nests surviving at lower rates than unparasitized nests. Overall, productivity increased during 1991-2010, with more pronounced increases associated with lower levels of landscape forest cover. The negative effects of cowbirds on nest survival in addition to fledging brood size in less forested landscapes suggest that cowbirds may be a primary cause of forest fragmentation effects on songbird productivity in the

  19. Smoking status and gene susceptibility play important roles in the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung function decline: A population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junling; Li, Miao; Chen, Jinkun; Wu, Xiaomei; Ning, Qin; Zhao, Jianping; Xu, Yongjian; Xie, Jungang; Yu, Jun

    2017-06-01

    We conducted this study to identify the influences and synergistic effects of smoking status and polymorphisms in hedgehog interacting protein (HHIP) on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung function decline. A cohort containing 306 COPD patients and 743 healthy subjects was recruited from 25,000 subjects. All selected subjects had chronic cough for over 2 years or a smoking history above 20 pack-years. After 8 years, all subjects were divided into 2 cohorts according to whether they had quit smoking or not. A follow-up of all patients was completed after another period of 10 years. Three variants in HHIP were genotyped to investigate the impacts of gene susceptibility on the development of COPD and lung function decline. During the follow-up tests, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) ratios decreased more significantly in COPD patients than in healthy subjects. For variant rs7654947, FEV1 decreased more significantly in CC and CT subjects than in TT subjects. FEV1 in COPD patients with a CC genotype from smoking cohorts reduced markedly when compared to ex-smoking cohorts (case, 30.75% vs. 35.5%; total, 28% vs. 32%). Our results showed that smoking and HHIP variant rs7654947 were associated with COPD development and lung function decline. Moreover, we found that cigarette smoking and gene susceptibility have cooperative effects on COPD risk and lung function decline.

  20. Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large ...

  1. A draft de novo genome assembly for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus reveals evidence for a rapid decline in effective population size beginning in the Late Pleistocene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvette A Halley

    Full Text Available Wild populations of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite have declined across nearly all of their U.S. range, and despite their importance as an experimental wildlife model for ecotoxicology studies, no bobwhite draft genome assembly currently exists. Herein, we present a bobwhite draft de novo genome assembly with annotation, comparative analyses including genome-wide analyses of divergence with the chicken (Gallus gallus and zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata genomes, and coalescent modeling to reconstruct the demographic history of the bobwhite for comparison to other birds currently in decline (i.e., scarlet macaw; Ara macao. More than 90% of the assembled bobwhite genome was captured within 14,000 unique genes and proteins. Bobwhite analyses of divergence with the chicken and zebra finch genomes revealed many extremely conserved gene sequences, and evidence for lineage-specific divergence of noncoding regions. Coalescent models for reconstructing the demographic history of the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw provided evidence for population bottlenecks which were temporally coincident with human colonization of the New World, the late Pleistocene collapse of the megafauna, and the last glacial maximum. Demographic trends predicted for the bobwhite and the scarlet macaw also were concordant with how opposing natural selection strategies (i.e., skewness in the r-/K-selection continuum would be expected to shape genome diversity and the effective population sizes in these species, which is directly relevant to future conservation efforts.

  2. Candidate gene investigation of spinal degenerative osteoarthritis in Greek population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liva, Eleni; Panagiotou, Irene; Palikyras, Spyros; Parpa, Efi; Tsilika, Eleni; Paschou, Peristera; Mystakidou, Kyriaki

    2017-12-01

    Few data exist concerning the natural history of degenerative osteoarthritis (OA) of the spine and its associated gene investigation. Degenerative spinal OA demonstrates an international prevalence of 15% in the general population. The aim of this Greek case-control study is to examine gene polymorphisms that have been previously shown or hypothesized to be correlated to degenerative OA. Gene polymorphisms, especially for OA, have never been previously studied in the Greek population. The study was conducted from May 2009 to December 2012. Eligible subjects who agreed to take part in the study were Greek adults from all of Greece, referred for consultation to the Palliative Care and Pain Relief Unit of Aretaieion University Hospital, in Athens, Greece. A total of 601 matched pairs (cases and controls) participated in the study, 258 patients (188 women and 70 men) with clinically and radiologically confirmed degenerative OA and 243 control subjects (138 women and 105 men). All patients presented with chronic pain at the spine (cervical, thoracic or lumbar) caused by sympomatic osteophytes or disc narrowing, whereas clinical diagnosis of OA was based on the presence of both joint symptoms and evidence of structural changes seen on plain conventional X-rays. We investigated genetic variation across candidate OA gene GDF5, CDMP1, CDMP2, Asporin, SMAD3, and chromosomal region 7q22, in a sample of 258 patients with clinically and radiologically confirmed degenerative OA, and 243 control subjects from the Greek population. All subjects (patients and controls) were subsequently matched for the epidemiologic, demographic, and clinical risk factors, to prevent selection biases. A tagging single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) approach was pursued to cover variation across all targeted loci. Single marker tests as well as haplotypic tests of association were performed. There is no conflict of interest, and also, there are no study funding sources. We found significant

  3. Browsing patterns of white-tailed deer following increased timber harvest and a decline in population density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; W. Mark Ford; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum

    2010-01-01

    We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50%) reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0-5 years...

  4. Improved analysis of long-term monitoring data demonstrates marked regional declines of bat populations in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Ingersoll; Brent J. Sewall; Sybill K. Amelon

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by...

  5. Further evidence of large-scale population decline and range contraction of the little owl Athene noctua in Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chrenková, M.; Dobrý, M.; Šálek, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 2 (2017), s. 106-116 ISSN 0139-7893 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : farmland birds * population trend * distribution * breeding places * agricultural buildings * conservation measures Subject RIV: EG - Zoology OBOR OECD: Zoology Impact factor: 0.739, year: 2016

  6. [Manifestation of generalized osteoarthritis in a genealogically investigated population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irlenbusch, U; Forke, L; Fuhrmann, U; Lorenz, U; Stechel, A

    2010-08-01

    The definition of generalized osteoarthritis in the literature is just as controversial as the discussion about correlations between GOA and Heberden's nodes (HN). Therefore, both questions were investigated in patients with proven heredity in a genealogical study of 931 family members. In 106 patients with HN and 109 control subjects, 70 joints and spinal segments were investigated with respect to characteristic functional parameters. In addition, 44 joints and spinal segments were investigated radiologically. GOA affects both the small and large joints as well as the spine. This phenomenon is the more pronounced the more finger joints are affected by Heberden's and Bouchard's nodes. GOA affects the entire musculoskeletal system. The varying manifestation in individual joints and spinal segments is probably attributable to multifactorial local and systemic factors. In an earlier study, a genetic disposition with a maximum HA prevalence of 30% was identified in the study population. Since HA is considered a genetic marker for GOA, it can be assumed that the same is true of GOA prevalence.

  7. Cytological investigations in populations of D. melanogaster exposed to radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wienberg, J.

    1983-01-01

    The study described was carried out to investigate structural changes in the chromosomes of irradiated populations of D.melanogaster that can be analysed on the basis of cytological methods. It mainly dealt with two particular aspects of this subject: I. Different types of chromosomes (polytene chromosomes, mitotic and meiotic chromosomes) were used to examine whether and to which extent chromosomal variability would alter or remain unchanged under the influence of mutation. II. The prophase of the first division of female cells was analysed with respect to the role of resistance factor rar-2. In this connection, it was of interest whether the prophase of meiosis would show visible cytological changes in the interchromosomal structure that are caused by factor rar-2. (orig./MG) [de

  8. Long-term decline of the populations of Fucales (Cystoseira spp. and Sargassum spp.) in the Albères coast (France, North-western Mediterranean).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibaut, Thierry; Pinedo, Susana; Torras, Xavier; Ballesteros, Enric

    2005-12-01

    Only five of fourteen species of Fucales reported at the end of the XIXth century are currently present in the Albères Coast (France, NW Mediterranean). According to historical data there has been a steady decrease of all the populations since the 1940s. Seven taxa now extinct (Cystoseira crinita, Cystoseira barbata, Cystoseira foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa, Cystoseira spinosa, Cystoseira spinosa var. compressa, Sargassum hornschuchii and Sargassum vulgare) were considered frequent and some of them were the dominant and engineering species in several phytobenthic assemblages. Moreover, only one of the five species left, shows no signs of regression (Cystoseira compressa), two are considered as rare (Cystoseira caespitosa, Cystoseira zosteroides), and one is very rare (Cystoseira elegans). Cystoseira mediterranea, a species that was reported to make a continuous belt along the shores of the Albères coast, has almost disappeared from some areas. Overgrazing by sea urchins, outcompetition by mussels, habitat destruction, scientific research sampling and, probably, human trampling and chemical pollution are to be blamed for the decline of populations thriving in shallow waters. Deep-water species have been affected by an increase in water turbidity and, probably, chemical pollution and direct plant destruction attributed to net fishing. If degradation of the environmental conditions continues, the remaining Cystoseira species will face a most unwelcome prospect. Even after the removal of the causes that led to its die-off, natural restoration of extinct species seems not to be possible because the decline has also affected populations from nearby areas and zygotes are unable to disperse over long distances. Urgent management actions have to be designed in order to improve the current situation of the populations of Fucales in the Albères coast.

  9. Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease as a Cause of Cognitive Decline and Seizures in the Elderly: Diagnostic Pointers and Strategy for Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive decline affects one in twenty people over the age of 65. There is often a paucity of clues as to the underlying pathology, and while the diagnosis will usually prove to be either Alzheimer’s disease or vascular dementia, there may be clinical features suggesting rarer alternatives. This case of a 71-year-old lady with a 3-month history of progressive cognitive decline illustrates clinical features suggestive of Creutzfeltd-Jakob disease such as rapid decline in conscious level and myoclonic jerking. Diagnosis was confirmed by 3 means: (1 Electroencephalogram demonstrating periodic sharp wave complexes, (2 MRI brain showing cortical ribboning and high signal in the caudate nucleus, and (3 presence of protein S100 and protein14-3-3 in the cerebrospinal fluid. Postmortem brain histology confirmed a typical spongiform encephalopathy. Establishing an underlying aetiology is dementia is important not only for prognostic reasons but in order to detect potentially reversible causes. In cases of an atypical dementing illness our proposed investigations may assist in confirming or excluding underlying Creutzfeltd-Jakob disease.

  10. Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

    2017-01-01

    The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

  11. Local Recurrence in Women With Stage I Breast Cancer: Declining Rates Over Time in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canavan, Joycelin, E-mail: canavanjoycelin@gmail.com [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Truong, Pauline T.; Smith, Sally L. [Radiation Therapy Program and Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver Island Centre, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Lu, Linghong; Lesperance, Mary [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, British Columbia (Canada); Olivotto, Ivo A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, University of Calgary (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    increased. These changes contributed to the observed declining LR rates among patients treated with breast-conserving therapy.

  12. Effects of perceived job insecurity on depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health in Korea: a population-based panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Seok; Hong, Yun-Chul; Yook, Ji-Hoo; Kang, Mo-Yeol

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the effects of job security on new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Data from the Korea Welfare Panel Study from 2012 to 2015 were analysed. A total of 2912 waged workers self-assessed their depressive episode, suicide ideation, and health annually by answering the questionnaire. Participants were divided into three groups according to the level of job security: high, intermediate and low. To evaluate the influence of job security, we performed survival analysis after stratification by gender with adjustment for covariates. The result was further stratified by whether the respondent was the head of household. After adjusting for covariates, men in low job security group showed significantly higher hazard ratios (HRs) for depression (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.60), suicide ideation (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.72-6.16), and decline in self-rated health (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.16-2.59). Women showed significantly higher HR of depression in the intermediate (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.01-1.87) and low (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.12-1.99) job security group. Male head of household with low job security showed significantly higher HR of depression, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health. Non-head-of-household women with intermediate and low job security showed higher risk of depression than those with high job security. We found that perceived job insecurity is associated with the new development of depressive episode, suicide ideation, and decline in self-rated health.

  13. Population genetic data of Investigator HDplex markers in Han population from Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiuling; Nan, Hailun; He, Xin; Wu, Weiwei; Lu, Dejian

    2018-02-17

    Allele frequencies and forensic statistical parameters for 12 STRs contained in the Investigator HDplex Kit (D2S1360, D3S1744, D4S2366, D5S2500, SE33, D6S474, D7S1517, D8S1132, D10S2325, D12S391, D18S51, and D21S2055) were estimated from a sample of 503 unrelated individuals from the Guangdong Han population of South China. No significant departure from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or genetic linkage disequilibrium was observed (after Bonferroni correction). The expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.6411 to 0.9414. The allele frequencies in Guangdong Han significantly differed from that in Shanghai Han, Korea, Northern Italian, Swedish, Dutch, Somalia, and Argentinean populations at 2 to 12 loci. The markers included in the kit have highly polymorphic information that could be used for forensic DNA analysis as potential tools for differentiating Han population from other populations in the world.

  14. Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Stapley, J.; Garcia, M.; Andrews, R.M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total li...

  15. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-12-01

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2016-01-01

    While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

  17. Spatio-Temporal Variation in Age Structure and Abundance of the Endangered Snail Kite: Pooling across Regions Masks a Declining and Aging Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E; Kendall, William L; Fletcher, Robert J; Kitchens, Wiley M

    While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997-2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite-a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species-the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region-a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia-the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

  18. SUHARTO’S POPULATION POLICY IN CONTEMPORARY INDONESIA : FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM, MARRIAGE ACT OR COMPULSORY EDUCATION HAS THE GREATEST IMPACT TO FERTILITY DECLINE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyah Anantalia Widyastari

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Fertility in Indonesia has been falling significantly, from an average total fertility rate of 5.6 children per women in 1970s to 4.1 in 1980, and 2.6 in 2010. This paper attempts to explore which and how Suharto’s population policies have played role in Indonesia’s fertility decline. Whilst the adoption of modern contraceptive was perceived as the major determinant of fertility decline in Indonesia, changes in Indonesia’s political order and socio-economic development also contribute a considerable effect to Indonesians’ familial norms. The implementation of 9-year compulsory education had placed a strong foundation for the future Indonesian human capital and enabled women to obtain higher opportunities for schooling. Beside facilitates the diffusion of ideas among young people and opened up their perspective toward reproductive rights and self actualization, education also increases women’s opportunities to participate in laborforce. With the increasing roles outside the domestic sector, delaying age of marriage and limiting family size becomes a choice for women in contemporary Indonesia. The marriage act, however, was perceived as an accelerator rather than a predictor in increasing age of first marriage. Regardless the existence of the Marriage Law 1974, age of first marriage is likely to increase with increasing of education, although maybe in a slower rate.

  19. Blood mercury concentrations are associated with decline in liver function in an elderly population: a panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Mee-Ri; Lim, Youn-Hee; Lee, Bo-Eun; Hong, Yun-Chul

    2017-03-04

    Mercury is a toxic heavy metal and is known to affect many diseases. However, few studies have examined the effects of mercury exposure on liver function in the general population. We examined the association between blood mercury concentrations and liver enzyme levels in the elderly. We included 560 elderly participants (60 years or older) who were recruited from 2008 to 2010 and followed up to 2014. Subjects visited a community welfare center and underwent a medical examination and measurement of mercury levels up to five times. Analyses using generalized estimating equations model were performed after adjusting for age, sex, education, overweight, alcohol consumption, smoking, regular exercise, high-density lipoproteins cholesterol, and total calorie intake. Additionally, we estimated interaction effects of alcohol consumption with mercury and mediation effect of oxidative stress in the relationship between mercury levels and liver function. The geometric mean (95% confidence interval (CI)) of blood mercury concentrations was 2.81 μg/L (2.73, 2.89). Significant relationships were observed between blood mercury concentrations and the level of liver enzymes, including aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), after adjusting for potential confounders (P mercury quartile compared to those with the lowest quartile. Particularly, regular alcohol drinkers showed greater effect estimates of mercury on the liver function than non-drinkers groups. There was no mediation effect of oxidative stress in the relationship between blood mercury concentrations and liver function. Our results suggest that blood mercury levels are associated with elevated liver enzymes and interact with alcohol consumption for the association in the elderly.

  20. Quantifying the contribution of statins to the decline in population mean cholesterol by socioeconomic group in England 1991 - 2012: a modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Kypridemos

    Full Text Available Serum total cholesterol is one of the major targets for cardiovascular disease prevention. Statins are effective for cholesterol control in individual patients. At the population level, however, their contribution to total cholesterol decline remains unclear. The aim of this study was to quantify the contribution of statins to the observed fall in population mean cholesterol levels in England over the past two decades, and explore any differences between socioeconomic groups.This is a modelling study based on data from the Health Survey for England. We analysed changes in observed mean total cholesterol levels in the adult England population between 1991-92 (baseline and 2011-12. We then compared the observed changes with a counterfactual 'no statins' scenario, where the impact of statins on population total cholesterol was estimated and removed. We estimated uncertainty intervals (UI using Monte Carlo simulation, where confidence intervals (CI were impractical. In 2011-12, 13.2% (95% CI: 12.5-14.0% of the English adult population used statins at least once per week, compared with 1991-92 when the proportion was just 0.5% (95% CI: 0.3-1.0%. Between 1991-92 and 2011-12, mean total cholesterol declined from 5.86 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.82-5.90 to 5.17 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.14-5.20. For 2011-12, mean total cholesterol was lower in more deprived groups. In our 'no statins' scenario we predicted a mean total cholesterol of 5.36 mmol/L (95% CI: 5.33-5.40 for 2011-12. Statins were responsible for approximately 33.7% (95% UI: 28.9-38.8% of the total cholesterol reduction since 1991-92. The statin contribution to cholesterol reduction was greater among the more deprived groups of women, while showing little socio-economic gradient among men.Our model suggests that statins explained around a third of the substantial falls in total cholesterol observed in England since 1991. Approximately two thirds of the cholesterol decrease can reasonably be attributed non

  1. Predisposition to bark beetle attack by root herbivores and associated pathogens: Roles in forest decline, gap formation, and persistence of endemic bark beetle populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukema, Brian H.; Zhu, Jun; Møller, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    . This interaction results in an expanding forest gap, with subsequent colonization by early-successional vegetation. Spatial position strongly affects the likelihood of tree mortality. A red pine is initially very likely to avoid attack by tree-killing Ips beetles, but attack becomes increasingly likely......, in that the proportion of killed trees that were not first colonized by root organisms increases. This positive feedback is very weak, however, and we propose the slope between beetle population density and reliance on host stress as a quantitative distinction along a gradient from noneruptive through eruptive species....... Almost all trees colonized by Ips were subsequently colonized by wood borers, likely a source of negative feedback. We discuss implications to our overall understanding of cross-scale interactions, between-guild interactions, forest declines, and eruptive thresholds....

  2. Patterns of genetic diversity and migration in increasingly fragmented and declining orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus) populations from Sabah, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goossens, B; Chikhi, L; Jalil, M F; Ancrenaz, M; Lackman-Ancrenaz, I; Mohamed, M; Andau, P; Bruford, M W

    2005-02-01

    We investigated the genetic structure within and among Bornean orang-utans (Pongo pygmaeus) in forest fragments of the Lower Kinabatangan flood plain in Sabah, Malaysia. DNA was extracted from hair and faecal samples for 200 wild individuals collected during boat surveys on the Kinabatangan River. Fourteen microsatellite loci were used to characterize patterns of genetic diversity. We found that genetic diversity was high in the set of samples (mean H(E) = 0.74) and that genetic differentiation was significant between the samples (average F(ST) = 0.04, P < 0.001) with F(ST) values ranging from low (0.01) to moderately large (0.12) values. Pairwise F(ST) values were significantly higher across the Kinabatangan River than between samples from the same river side, thereby confirming the role of the river as a natural barrier to gene flow. The correlation between genetic and geographical distance was tested by means of a series of Mantel tests based on different measures of geographical distance. We used a Bayesian method to estimate immigration rates. The results indicate that migration is unlikely across the river but cannot be completely ruled out because of the limited F(ST) values. Assignment tests confirm the overall picture that gene flow is limited across the river. We found that migration between samples from the same side of the river had a high probability indicating that orang-utans used to move relatively freely between neighbouring areas. This strongly suggests that there is a need to maintain migration between isolated forest fragments. This could be done by restoring forest corridors alongside the river banks and between patches.

  3. Preliminary investigation of plasma levels of sex hormones and human growth factor(s, and P300 latency as correlates to cognitive decline as a function of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerner Mallory M

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aging is marked by declines in levels of many sex hormones and growth factors, as well as in cognitive function. The P300 event-related potential has been established as a predictor of cognitive decline. We decided to determine if this measure, as well as 2 standard tests of memory and attention, may be correlated with serum levels of sex hormones and growth factors, and if there are any generalizations that could be made based on these parameters and the aging process. Findings In this large clinically based preliminary study several sex-stratified associations between hormone levels and cognition were observed, including (1 for males aged 30 to 49, both IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 significantly associated negatively with prolonged P300 latency; (2 for males aged 30 to 49, the spearman correlation between prolonged P300 latency and low free testosterone was significant; (3 for males aged 60 to 69, there was a significant negative correlation between P300 latency and DHEA levels; (4 for females aged 50 to 59 IGFBP-3 significantly associated negatively with prolonged P300 latency; (5 for females at all age periods, estrogen and progesterone were uncorrelated with P300 latency; and (6 for females aged 40 to 69, there was significant negative correlation between DHEA levels and P300 latency. Moreover there were no statistically significant correlations between any hormone and Wechsler Memory Scale-III (WMS-111. However, in females, there was a significant positive correlation between estrogen levels and the number of Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD complaints. Conclusion Given certain caveats including confounding factors involving psychiatric and other chronic diseases as well as medications, the results may still have important value. If these results could be confirmed in a more rigorously controlled investigation, it may have important value in the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of cognitive impairments and decline.

  4. Connectivity between migrating and landlocked populations of a diadromous fish species investigated using otolith microchemistry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Tulp

    Full Text Available Smelt Osmerus eperlanus has two different life history strategies in The Netherlands. The migrating population inhabits the Wadden Sea and spawns in freshwater areas. After the closure of the Afsluitdijk in 1932, part of the smelt population became landlocked. The fresh water smelt population has been in severe decline since 1990, and has strongly negatively impacted the numbers of piscivorous water birds relying on smelt as their main prey. The lakes that were formed after the dike closure, IJsselmeer and Markermeer have been assigned as Natura 2000 sites, based on their importance for (among others piscivorous water birds. Because of the declining fresh water smelt population, the question arose whether this population is still supported by the diadromous population. Opportunities for exchange between fresh water and the sea are however limited to discharge sluices. The relationship between the diadromous and landlocked smelt population was analysed by means of otolith microchemistry. Our interpretation of otolith strontium ((88Sr patterns from smelt specimens collected in the fresh water area of Lake IJsselmeer and Markermeer, compared to those collected in the nearby marine environment, is that there is currently no evidence for a substantial contribution from the diadromous population to the spawning stock of the landlocked population.

  5. Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-08-01

    The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population. The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate. A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data. We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality. The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.

  6. Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Clausius

    Full Text Available The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

  7. Investigation of schema modes in the eating disordered population

    OpenAIRE

    Jenkins, Gwenllian

    2009-01-01

    Many eating disordered patients fail to respond to traditional cognitive behaviour therapy. As a result it has been suggested that further research needs to be completed to determine the cognitive processes and mechanisms that underpin these disorders. This research aims to empirically test Young’s Schema Mode concept (Young et al., 2003) within the eating disordered population and determine the relationship between schema modes and early maladaptive schemata, experience of ...

  8. Long-term trends in survival of a declining population:the case of the little owl (Athene noctua) in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Gouar, P.J.M.; Schekkerman, H.; Van der Jeugd, H.P.; Boele, A.; van Harxen, R.; Fuchs, P.; Stroeken, P.; Van Noordwijk, A.J.

    2011-01-01

    The little owl (Athene noctua) has declined significantly in many parts of Europe, including the Netherlands. To understand the demographic mechanisms underlying their decline, we analysed all available Dutch little owl ringing data. The data set spanned 35 years, and included more than 24,000

  9. Exploring Phytoplankton Population Investigation Growth to Enhance Quantitative Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, Erin; Biga, Lindsay; Bledsoe, Karen; Dawson, James; Grammer, Julie; Howard, Ava; Snyder, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative literacy is essential to biological literacy (and is one of the core concepts in "Vision and Change in Undergraduate Biology Education: A Call to Action"; AAAS 2009). Building quantitative literacy is a challenging endeavor for biology instructors. Integrating mathematical skills into biological investigations can help build…

  10. Land use, fishing, climate change, and decline of Thompson River, British Columbia, coho salmon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradford, M. J.; Irvine, J. R. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC (Canada)

    2000-01-01

    Reasons for the decline in abundance of Pacific salmon population in the Thompson River watershed in British Columbia was investigated. Results suggests that the decline could be the result of a declining trend in productivity related to changes in ocean conditions, overfishing, and changes in the freshwater habitat. The abundance of salmon correlated with agricultural land use, road density, and qualitative changes in stream habitat status; logging appeared to have had no such effect. It was concluded that salmon populations will continue to decline unless limits on fishing are strictly enforced, and unless salmon producing watersheds are restored and ocean conditions are significantly improved . 12 refs., 2 figs.

  11. Multidomain lifestyle intervention benefits a large elderly population at risk for cognitive decline and dementia regardless of baseline characteristics: The FINGER trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Anna; Ngandu, Tiia; Rusanen, Minna; Antikainen, Riitta; Bäckman, Lars; Havulinna, Satu; Hänninen, Tuomo; Laatikainen, Tiina; Lehtisalo, Jenni; Levälahti, Esko; Lindström, Jaana; Paajanen, Teemu; Peltonen, Markku; Soininen, Hilkka; Stigsdotter-Neely, Anna; Strandberg, Timo; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Solomon, Alina; Kivipelto, Miia

    2017-10-19

    The 2-year Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER) multidomain lifestyle intervention trial (NCT01041989) demonstrated beneficial effects on cognition. We investigated whether sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, baseline cognition, or cardiovascular factors influenced intervention effects on cognition. The FINGER recruited 1260 people from the general Finnish population (60-77 years, at risk for dementia). Participants were randomized 1:1 to multidomain intervention (diet, exercise, cognition, and vascular risk management) and regular health advice. Primary outcome was change in cognition (Neuropsychological Test Battery z-score). Prespecified analyses to investigate whether participants' characteristics modified response to intervention were carried out using mixed-model repeated-measures analyses. Sociodemographics (sex, age, and education), socioeconomic status (income), cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination), cardiovascular factors (body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, fasting glucose, and overall cardiovascular risk), and cardiovascular comorbidity did not modify response to intervention (P-values for interaction > .05). The FINGER intervention was beneficial regardless of participants' characteristics and can thus be implemented in a large elderly population at increased risk for dementia. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Is rising obesity causing a secular (age-independent) decline in testosterone among American men?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, Allan; Westerman, Ronny; Mueller, Ulrich

    2013-01-01

    The testosterone of men in industrial societies peaks in their twenties and tends to decline with increasing age. Apart from this individual-level decline, there have been reports of a secular (age-independent population-level) decline in testosterone among American and Scandinavian men during the past few decades, possibly an indication of declining male reproductive health. It has been suggested that both declines in testosterone (individual-level and population-level) are due to increasing male obesity because men in industrial society tend to add body fat as they age, and overall rates of obesity are increasing. Using an unusually large and lengthy longitudinal dataset (991 US Air Force veterans examined in six cycles over 20 years), we investigate the relationship of obesity to individual and population-level declines in testosterone. Over twenty years of study, longitudinal decline in mean testosterone was at least twice what would be expected from cross-sectional estimates of the aging decline. Men who put on weight intensified their testosterone decline, some greatly so, but even among those who held their weight constant or lost weight during the study, mean testosterone declined 117 ng/dl (19%) over 20 years. We have not identified the reason for secular decline in testosterone, but we exclude increasing obesity as a sufficient or primary explanation, and we deny the supposition that men who avoid excessive weight will maintain their youthful levels of testosterone.

  13. Is rising obesity causing a secular (age-independent decline in testosterone among American men?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan Mazur

    Full Text Available The testosterone of men in industrial societies peaks in their twenties and tends to decline with increasing age. Apart from this individual-level decline, there have been reports of a secular (age-independent population-level decline in testosterone among American and Scandinavian men during the past few decades, possibly an indication of declining male reproductive health. It has been suggested that both declines in testosterone (individual-level and population-level are due to increasing male obesity because men in industrial society tend to add body fat as they age, and overall rates of obesity are increasing. Using an unusually large and lengthy longitudinal dataset (991 US Air Force veterans examined in six cycles over 20 years, we investigate the relationship of obesity to individual and population-level declines in testosterone. Over twenty years of study, longitudinal decline in mean testosterone was at least twice what would be expected from cross-sectional estimates of the aging decline. Men who put on weight intensified their testosterone decline, some greatly so, but even among those who held their weight constant or lost weight during the study, mean testosterone declined 117 ng/dl (19% over 20 years. We have not identified the reason for secular decline in testosterone, but we exclude increasing obesity as a sufficient or primary explanation, and we deny the supposition that men who avoid excessive weight will maintain their youthful levels of testosterone.

  14. Preliminary investigation of plasma levels of sex hormones and human growth factor(s), and P300 latency as correlates to cognitive decline as a function of gender

    OpenAIRE

    Kerner Mallory M; Chen Amanda LC; Chen Thomas JH; Braverman Eric R; Tung Howard; Waite Roger L; Schoolfield John; Blum Kenneth

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Aging is marked by declines in levels of many sex hormones and growth factors, as well as in cognitive function. The P300 event-related potential has been established as a predictor of cognitive decline. We decided to determine if this measure, as well as 2 standard tests of memory and attention, may be correlated with serum levels of sex hormones and growth factors, and if there are any generalizations that could be made based on these parameters and the aging process. Fi...

  15. An Urban Neo-Poverty Population-Based Quality of Life and Related Social Characteristics Investigation from Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Fengrong; Li, Kai; Gao, Qian; Liu, Dan; Li, Jinghai; Hu, Liwen; Wu, Xian; Edmiston, E. Kale; Liu, Yang

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate quality of life (QOL) and related characteristics among an urban neo-poverty population in northeast China, and to compare this population with a traditional poverty cohort. Design The research was a cross-sectional survey executed from June 2005 to October 2007, with a sample of 2940 individuals ages 36 to 55 in three different industrial cities of northeast China. Data were collected on QOL status and sociodemographic characteristics. QOL was assessed using the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (Chinese version). Multiple regression analysis was employed to analyze association between sociodemographic variables and QOL. Results The scores for QOL in the neo-poverty group were higher than those in the traditional poverty group, but lower than those in the general population. When the neo-poverty population was divided into two subgroups by age, 36–45 years and 46–55 years, the differences in QOL scores were not significant. However, there were significant differences in several dimensions between two subgroups according to unemployment time (5 years). Additionally, stepwise regression analysis indicated that disease burden, including disease and medical expenditures, was a common risk factor for declining QOL in the neo-poverty group. Conclusions Despite some limitations, this study provides initial evidence that the QOL of the urban neo-poverty population lies between that of the general population and traditional poverty. QOL of the neo-poverty group approached QOL of the traditional poverty group with increased unemployment years. In addition to decreased income, disease burden is the most important factor influencing QOL status in urban neo-poverty. PMID:22719968

  16. Motor phenotype of decline in cognitive performance among community-dwellers without dementia: population-based study and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Beauchet

    Full Text Available Decline in cognitive performance is associated with gait deterioration. Our objectives were: 1 to determine, from an original study in older community-dwellers without diagnosis of dementia, which gait parameters, among slower gait speed, higher stride time variability (STV and Timed Up & Go test (TUG delta time, were most strongly associated with lower performance in two cognitive domains (i.e., episodic memory and executive function; and 2 to quantitatively synthesize, with a systematic review and meta-analysis, the association between gait performance and cognitive decline (i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI and dementia.Based on a cross-sectional design, 934 older community-dwellers without dementia (mean±standard deviation, 70.3±4.9years; 52.1% female were recruited. A score at 5 on the Short Mini-Mental State Examination defined low episodic memory performance. Low executive performance was defined by clock-drawing test errors. STV and gait speed were measured using GAITRite system. TUG delta time was calculated as the difference between the times needed to perform and to imagine the TUG. Then, a systematic Medline search was conducted in November 2013 using the Medical Subject Heading terms "Delirium," "Dementia," "Amnestic," "Cognitive disorders" combined with "Gait" OR "Gait disorders, Neurologic" and "Variability."A total of 294 (31.5% participants presented decline in cognitive performance. Higher STV, higher TUG delta time, and slower gait speed were associated with decline in episodic memory and executive performances (all P-values <0.001. The highest magnitude of association was found for higher STV (effect size  =  -0.74 [95% Confidence Interval (CI: -1.05;-0.43], among participants combining of decline in episodic memory and in executive performances. Meta-analysis underscored that higher STV represented a gait biomarker in patients with MCI (effect size  =  0.48 [95% CI: 0.30;0.65] and dementia (effect size  = 1

  17. Effect of root strength and soil saturation on hillslope stability in forests with natural cedar decline in headwater regions of SE Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelaide C. Johnson; Peter. Wilcock

    1998-01-01

    A natural decline in the population of yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) is occurring in pristine southeast Alaska forests and may be the most significant forest decline in the western United States. The frequency of landslides in cedar decline areas is three times larger than in areas of healthy forest. Three regions are investigated in...

  18. Defining population structure and genetic signatures of decline in the giant garter snake (Thamnophis gigas): implications for conserving threatened species within highly altered landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Dustin A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Vandergast, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can disrupt the ability of species to disperse across landscapes, which can alter the levels and distribution of genetic diversity within populations and negatively impact long-term viability. The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species that historically occurred in the wetland habitats of California’s Great Central Valley. Despite the loss of 93 % of historic wetlands throughout the Central Valley, giant gartersnakes continue to persist in relatively small, isolated patches of highly modified agricultural wetlands. Gathering information regarding genetic diversity and effective population size represents an essential component for conservation management programs aimed at this species. Previous mitochondrial sequence studies have revealed historical patterns of differentiation, yet little is known about contemporary population structure and diversity. On the basis of 15 microsatellite loci, we estimate population structure and compare indices of genetic diversity among populations spanning seven drainage basins within the Central Valley. We sought to understand how habitat loss may have affected genetic differentiation, genetic diversity and effective population size, and what these patterns suggest in terms of management and restoration actions. We recovered five genetic clusters that were consistent with regional drainage basins, although three northern basins within the Sacramento Valley formed a single genetic cluster. Our results show that northern drainage basin populations have higher connectivity than among central and southern basins populations, and that greater differentiation exists among the more geographically isolated populations in the central and southern portion of the species’ range. Genetic diversity measures among basins were significantly different, and were generally lower in southern basin populations. Levels of inbreeding and evidence of population

  19. Decline in Performance of Biochemical Reactors for Sulphate Removal from Mine-Influenced Water is Accompanied by Changes in Organic Matter Characteristics and Microbial Population Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parissa Mirjafari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Successful long-term bioremediation of mining-influenced water using complex organic matter and naturally-occurring microorganisms in sub-surface flow constructed wetlands requires a balance between easily and more slowly degrading material. This can be achieved by combining different types of organic materials. To provide guidance on what mixture combinations to use, information is needed on how the ratio of labile to recalcitrant components affects the degradation rate and the types of microbial populations supported. To investigate this, different ratios of wood and hay were used in up-flow column bioreactors treating selenium- and sulphate-containing synthetic mine-influenced water. The degradation rates of crude fibre components appeared to be similar regardless of the relative amounts of wood and hay. However, the nature of the degradation products might have differed in that those produced in the hay-rich bioreactors were more biodegradable and supported high sulphate-reduction rates. Microorganisms in the sulphate-reducing and cellulose-degrading inocula persisted in the bioreactors indicating that bio-augmentation was effective. There was a shift in microbial community composition over time suggesting that different microbial groups were involved in decomposition of more recalcitrant material. When dissolved organic carbon (DOC was over-supplied, the relative abundance of sulphate-reducers was low even through high sulphate-reduction rates were achieved. As DOC diminished, sulphate-reducers become more prevalent and their relative abundance correlated with sulphate concentrations rather than sulphate-reduction rate.

  20. Performance of the 16-Item Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline for the Elderly (IQCODE) in an Arabic-Speaking Older Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phung, Thien Kieu Thi; Chaaya, Monique; Asmar, Khalil

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIM: The North African and Middle Eastern region has high illiteracy rates among older people, making direct cognitive testing challenging. Validated screening instruments for dementia in Arabic are lacking. We aimed to validate the Arabic version of the 16-item Informant Questionnaire...... on Cognitive Decline for the Elderly (A-IQCODE 16) for screening for dementia through an informant. METHODS: 236 Lebanese participants older than 65 years, 143 with normal cognition and 93 with mild-to-moderate dementia according to the DSM-IV criteria, and their informants were recruited. Half...... of the participants had no formal education. Interviewers blinded to the cognitive status of the participants administered the A-IQCODE 16 to the informants. The ability of the A-IQCODE 16 to screen for dementia was evaluated against the DSM-IV diagnoses. RESULTS: The A-IQCODE 16 had excellent overall predictive...

  1. Investigator Argus X-12 study on the population of northern Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Crnjac

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract X chromosome STR typing has emerged recently as a powerful tool, complementary to autosomal STR typing, in solving complex forensic and missing person cases. Investigator® Argus X-12 is a commercial product that allows co-amplification of 12 X chromosomal markers belonging to four linkage groups (LGs. In this study, we analyzed by capillary electrophoresis blood samples from 100 females and 102 males from a population of northern Croatia. Statistical analysis included calculation of allele and haplotype frequencies, as well as forensic parameters. The most informative marker for the northern Croatia population was DXS10135 with PIC=0.9211 and a total of 27 alleles. The least polymorphic marker was DXS8378 with 6 alleles. The proportion of observed haplotypes from the number of possible haplotypes varied from 2.74–8.57% across all LGs, with LG1 being the most informative. Of the 11 tested world populations compared to the population of northern Croatia, significant differences in genetic distance (FST were found for Greenlandic and all non-European populations. We found that all tested markers are in HWE and can thus be used for match probability calculation. Because of high combined power of discrimination in both men and women, Investigator® Argus X-12 is applicable for the northern Croatia population in routine forensic casework.

  2. Investigation of SCA10 in the Cypriot population: further exclusion of SCA dynamic repeat mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Votsi, Christina; Zamba-Papanicolaou, Eleni; Georghiou, Anthi; Kyriakides, Theodoros; Papacostas, Savvas; Kleopa, Kleopas A; Pantzaris, Marios; Christodoulou, Kyproula

    2012-12-15

    Autosomal dominant cerebellar ataxias (ADCAs) encompass a heterogeneous group of rare diseases that affect the cerebellum and its connections. The most common forms have been associated with dynamic mutations while some rarer forms with conventional mutations. Studies in different populations revealed differences in their relative frequencies both within and between the studied populations, showing that the frequencies are depended on ethnic and geographical factors. Previous investigation of triplet repeat expansion SCAs (SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, SCA6, SCA7, SCA8, SCA12, SCA17 and DRPLA) in the Cypriot population, revealed no pathogenic expansion in the Cypriot SCA patients. We hereby present our recent investigation of the SCA10 pentanucleotide repeat expansion. Forty-two ascertained Cypriot sporadic ataxia patients, the index case from 1 ADCA and 14 ARCA families and a cohort of normal population individuals were included in the study. All our patients have normal range ATXN10 gene ATTCT repeat numbers (10-19). In the normal population group, repeat lengths ranged from 11 to 20 with the 14 repeats allele being the most frequent. Therefore, all currently established dynamic repeat SCA mutations are absent from the Cypriot population, indicating distinct genetic causes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The interplay of plant and animal disease in a changing landscape: the role of sudden aspen decline in moderating Sin Nombre virus prevalence in natural deer mouse populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmer, Erin M; Korb, Julie; Bombaci, Sara; McLean, Nellie; Ghachu, Joni; Hart, Lacey; Kelly, Ashley; Jara-Molinar, Edlin; O'Brien, Colleen; Wright, Kimberly

    2012-06-01

    We examined how climate-mediated forest dieback regulates zoonotic disease prevalence using the relationship between sudden aspen decline (SAD) and Sin Nombre virus (SNV) as a model system. We compared understory plant community structure, small mammal community composition, and SNV prevalence on 12 study sites within aspen forests experiencing levels of SAD ranging from 95.0% crown fade. Our results show that sites with the highest levels of SAD had reduced canopy cover, stand density, and basal area, and these differences were reflected by reductions in understory vegetation cover. Conversely, sites with the highest levels of SAD had greater understory standing biomass, suggesting that vegetation on these sites was highly clustered. Changes in forest and understory vegetation structure likely resulted in shifts in small mammal community composition across the SAD gradient, as we found reduced species diversity and higher densities of deer mice, the primary host for SNV, on sites with the highest levels of SAD. Sites with the highest levels of SAD also had significantly greater SNV prevalence compared to sites with lower levels of SAD, which is likely a result of their abundance of deer mice. Collectively, results of our research provide strong evidence to show SAD has considerable impacts on vegetation community structure, small mammal density and biodiversity and the prevalence of SNV.

  4. Investigation on The Blood Cell Counts of Chalcides ocellatus (Sauria: Scincidae) Population in Anatolia

    OpenAIRE

    MERMER, Ahmet

    2014-01-01

    In this investigation, the blood cell counts (erythrocyts and leucocyts) of 136 Chalcides ocellatus specimens (75 females + 61 males), collected from different locations in Anatolia have been investigated from the view point of the effects of geographical distance and altitude factors. The blood cell counts are found to be highest in the population from Gaziantep-Urfa and the cause of this difference is evaluated as due to geographic variation.

  5. Investigating population continuity with ancient DNA under a spatially explicit simulation framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Nuno Miguel; Rio, Jeremy; Currat, Mathias

    2017-12-15

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have allowed for the retrieval of ancient DNA data (aDNA) from skeletal remains, providing direct genetic snapshots from diverse periods of human prehistory. Comparing samples taken in the same region but at different times, hereafter called "serial samples", may indicate whether there is continuity in the peopling history of that area or whether an immigration of a genetically different population has occurred between the two sampling times. However, the exploration of genetic relationships between serial samples generally ignores their geographical locations and the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations. Here, we present a new coalescent-based, spatially explicit modelling approach to investigate population continuity using aDNA, which includes two fundamental elements neglected in previous methods: population structure and migration. The approach also considers the extensive temporal and geographical variance that is commonly found in aDNA population samples. We first showed that our spatially explicit approach is more conservative than the previous (panmictic) approach and should be preferred to test for population continuity, especially when small and isolated populations are considered. We then applied our method to two mitochondrial datasets from Germany and France, both including modern and ancient lineages dating from the early Neolithic. The results clearly reject population continuity for the maternal line over the last 7500 years for the German dataset but not for the French dataset, suggesting regional heterogeneity in post-Neolithic migratory processes. Here, we demonstrate the benefits of using a spatially explicit method when investigating population continuity with aDNA. It constitutes an improvement over panmictic methods by considering the spatiotemporal dynamics of genetic lineages and the precise location of ancient samples. The method can be used to investigate population continuity between any pair

  6. Changes in agricultural land use can explain population decline in a ladybeetle species in the Czech Republic : evidence from a process-based spatially explicit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Hon¿k, A.; Werf, van der W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in land use affect species interactions and population dynamics by modifying the spatial template of trophic interaction and the availability of resources in time and space. We developed a process-based spatially explicit model for evaluating the effects of land use on species viability by

  7. Investigation of insecticide-resistance status of Cydia pomonella in Chinese populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X-Q; Zhang, Y-L

    2015-06-01

    The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) is an economically important fruit pest and it has been directly targeted by insecticides worldwide. Serious resistance to insecticides has been reported in many countries. As one of the most serious invasive pest, the codling moth has populated several areas in China. However, resistance to insecticides has not been reported in China. We investigated the insecticide-resistance status of four field populations from Northwestern China by applying bioassays, enzyme activities, and mutation detections. Diagnostic concentrations of lambda-cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos-ethyl, carbaryl, and imidacloprid were determined and used in bioassays. Field populations were less susceptible to chlorpyrifos-ethyl and carbaryl than laboratory strain. Insensitive populations displayed an elevated glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) activity. Reduced carboxylesterase (CarE) activity was observed in some insecticide insensitive populations and reduced acetylcholinesterase activity was observed only in the Wuw population. The cytochrome P450 polysubstrate monooxygenases activities in four field populations were not found to be different from susceptible strains. Neither the known-resistance mutation F399V in the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gene, ace1, nor mutations in CarE gene CpCE-1 were found in adult individuals from our field populations. Native-PAGE revealed that various CarE isozymes and AChE insensitivity were occurring among Chinese populations. Our results indicate that codling moth populations from Northwestern China were insensitivity to chlorpyrifos-ethyl and carbaryl. Increased GST activity was responsible for insecticides insensitivity. Decreased CarE activity, as well as the presence of CarE and AChE polymorphisms might also be involved in insecticides insensitivity. New management strategies for managing this pest are discussed.

  8. Clinical prediction in defined populations: a simulation study investigating when and how to aggregate existing models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen P. Martin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical prediction models (CPMs are increasingly deployed to support healthcare decisions but they are derived inconsistently, in part due to limited data. An emerging alternative is to aggregate existing CPMs developed for similar settings and outcomes. This simulation study aimed to investigate the impact of between-population-heterogeneity and sample size on aggregating existing CPMs in a defined population, compared with developing a model de novo. Methods Simulations were designed to mimic a scenario in which multiple CPMs for a binary outcome had been derived in distinct, heterogeneous populations, with potentially different predictors available in each. We then generated a new ‘local’ population and compared the performance of CPMs developed for this population by aggregation, using stacked regression, principal component analysis or partial least squares, with redevelopment from scratch using backwards selection and penalised regression. Results While redevelopment approaches resulted in models that were miscalibrated for local datasets of less than 500 observations, model aggregation methods were well calibrated across all simulation scenarios. When the size of local data was less than 1000 observations and between-population-heterogeneity was small, aggregating existing CPMs gave better discrimination and had the lowest mean square error in the predicted risks compared with deriving a new model. Conversely, given greater than 1000 observations and significant between-population-heterogeneity, then redevelopment outperformed the aggregation approaches. In all other scenarios, both aggregation and de novo derivation resulted in similar predictive performance. Conclusion This study demonstrates a pragmatic approach to contextualising CPMs to defined populations. When aiming to develop models in defined populations, modellers should consider existing CPMs, with aggregation approaches being a suitable modelling

  9. Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupferberg, Sarah J; Palen, Wendy J; Lind, Amy J; Bobzien, Steve; Catenazzi, Alessandro; Drennan, Joe; Power, Mary E

    2012-06-01

    Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. Social differences in the decline of marital reproduction in rural Navarre (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, J J

    1998-09-01

    The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre, Spain, during the first few decades of the 20th century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. While the decline affected all social strata and geographical regions, it was not homogeneous, with some sectors of Navarrese society beginning the fertility transition earlier than others. Using data drawn from the nominal lists of the 1940 Spanish Census on married women aged 45-49 years, the author investigated the influence of differences in geographical origin, level of urbanization, father's occupation, level of religious devotion, and political factors upon the observed decline in marital fertility. The data support the originators of demographic transition theory, that the more urban populations, and therefore those with a higher percentage of the active population working in nonprimary sectors, led the fertility decline. The degree of a society's secularization also influenced the beginning of the decline of fertility and the levels reached.

  11. Investigating some strategies for construction of initial populations in genetic algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonsas Misevičius

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Population initialization is one of the important tasks in evolutionary and genetic algorithms (GAs. It can affect considerably the speed of convergence and the quality of the obtained results. In this paper, some heuristic strategies (procedures for construction of the initial populations in genetic algorithms are investigated. The purpose is to try to see how the different population initialization strategies (procedures can influence the quality of the final solutions of GAs. Several simple procedures were algorithmically implemented and tested on one of the hard combinatorial optimization problems, the quadratic assignment problem (QAP. The results of the computational experiments demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed strategies. In addition, these strategies are of quite general character and may be easily transferred to other population-based metaheuristics (like particle swarm or bee colony optimization methods.DOI: 10.15181/csat.v5i1.1277  

  12. Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

    2016-09-01

    The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.

  13. Emerging factors associated with the decline of a gray fox population and multi-scale land cover associations of mesopredators in the Chicago metropolitan area.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willingham, Alison N.; /Ohio State U.

    2008-01-01

    Statewide surveys of furbearers in Illinois indicate gray (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and red (Vulpes vulpes) foxes have experienced substantial declines in relative abundance, whereas other species such as raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) have exhibited dramatic increases during the same time period. The cause of the declines of gray and red foxes has not been identified, and the current status of gray foxes remains uncertain. Therefore, I conducted a large-scale predator survey and tracked radiocollared gray foxes from 2004 to 2007 in order to determine the distribution, survival, cause-specific mortality sources and land cover associations of gray foxes in an urbanized region of northeastern Illinois, and examined the relationships between the occurrence of gray fox and the presence other species of mesopredators, specifically coyotes and raccoons. Although generalist mesopredators are common and can reach high densities in many urban areas their urban ecology is poorly understood due to their secretive nature and wariness of humans. Understanding how mesopredators utilize urbanized landscapes can be useful in the management and control of disease outbreaks, mitigation of nuisance wildlife issues, and gaining insight into how mesopredators shape wildlife communities in highly fragmented areas. I examined habitat associations of raccoons, opossums (Didelphis virginiana), domestic cats (Felis catus), coyotes, foxes (gray and red), and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) at multiple spatial scales in an urban environment. Gray fox occurrence was rare and widely dispersed, and survival estimates were similar to other studies. Gray fox occurrence was negatively associated with natural and semi-natural land cover types. Fox home range size increased with increasing urban development suggesting that foxes may be negatively influenced by urbanization. Gray fox occurrence was not associated with coyote or raccoon presence. However, spatial avoidance and

  14. Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothée Bonnet

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called "stasis paradox" highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of

  15. Recent Honey Bee Colony Declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-06-20

    the scientists who are researching this phenomenon, include but may not be limited to ! parasites , mites, and disease loads in the bees and brood ...thrips; ants; butterflies; moths; bats; and hummingbirds and other birds . 2 Berenbaum, M.R., University of Illinois, Statement before the...bee population losses due to bee pests, parasites , pathogens, and disease. Most notable are declines due to two parasitic mites, the so-called

  16. The global financial crisis and neighborhood decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, M.D.; Bolt, G.; Van Ham, M.; Van Kempen, R.

    2016-01-01

    Neighborhood decline is a complex and multidimensional process. National and regional variations in economic and political structures (including varieties in national welfare state arrangements), combined with differences in neighborhood history, development, and population composition, make it

  17. Investigating Resistance of Wild Mustard (Sinapis arvensis L. ‎Populations to Tribenuron-Methyl Herbicide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ‎ Mehdi Afshari

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Tribenuron-methyl is commonly used for post emergence control of broad leaf weeds in wheat fields. In order to survey suspicious resistant weeds in wheat fields to this herbicide thirty-eight fields of Kermanshah province were investigated during 2012- 2013. Seeds of suspected resistance of wild mustard were gathered and tested in a randomized complete blocks design experiment with three replications. First, for early detection of herbicide resistance, the suspected population was screened using discriminating dose of tribenuron-methyl. Determining of the resistance degree was conducted by whole plant bioassay tests using dose-response curves. The resistance mechanisms were assayed by molecular methods, especially using the ALS gene cloning by PJET1.2/blunt Vector. For susceptible populations, the concentration required for complete control was 10.4 g ai ha-1 tribenuron-methyl. Also, in screening tests 50% of populations as resistant populations were identified. According to the Beckie and Tardif, it was found that 57.8% of these population did have a very high degree of resistance, 31.5% with high resistance and 10/5% with low resistance degree. GR50 of the resistant weeds was also increased as compared to sensitive weed, which indicates resistance in this province, Thus to control the resistant populations Z15, this amount increased to 1309 g ai ha-1.The results of DNA sequencing showed that mutation by replacing proline amino acid at position Ala122 causes resistance based on target-site mutation.

  18. Globally Declining Population of Women Folk Causing Sex Imbalance Is a Serious Concern: An Analysis of Sex Ratio around the Globe

    OpenAIRE

    Gautam, Rajesh K.; Jhariya, Jyoti; Kumar, Pardeep

    2015-01-01

    Successful existence and perpetuation of any species depend on its reproductive success. In case of humans, the theoretical proportion of males and females should be 1 : 1, but this equilibrium was disturbed in many parts of the world. What are the determinants of sex imbalance in human should be found out to combat the problem. The data were gathered for 227 countries. The sex ratio for human population of the world was found 101 males for 100 females, but it varies from 74 to 219 among the ...

  19. Globally Declining Population of Women Folk Causing Sex Imbalance Is a Serious Concern: An Analysis of Sex Ratio around the Globe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh K. Gautam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Successful existence and perpetuation of any species depend on its reproductive success. In case of humans, the theoretical proportion of males and females should be 1 : 1, but this equilibrium was disturbed in many parts of the world. What are the determinants of sex imbalance in human should be found out to combat the problem. The data were gathered for 227 countries. The sex ratio for human population of the world was found 101 males for 100 females, but it varies from 74 to 219 among the countries. The number of countries having higher number of females as compared to males is 132, as they have 99 or less males per 100 females, whereas in 71 countries the total population of males is greater than the females. And only 24 countries have balanced sex ratio. Regression analysis shows that fertility, rate of natural increase, mortality, and gender inequality index have inverse effect, and they account for 24.4%, 23.1%, 18.8%, 18.9%, 16.3%, 16.1%, and 5.1% of variability, respectively. There is great need to identify such countries and region where sex selective abortion is being practiced and to find out appropriate strategies to combat such problem.

  20. What Makes Clusters Decline?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

    2015-01-01

    Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...

  1. An investigation of the statistical power of neutrality tests based on comparative and population genetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhai, Weiwei; Nielsen, Rasmus; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2009-01-01

    is low. Tests based solely on the distribution of allele frequencies or the site frequency spectrum, such as the Ewens-Watterson test or Tajima's D, have less power in detecting both positive and negative selection because of the transient nature of positive selection and the weak signal left by negative......In this report, we investigate the statistical power of several tests of selective neutrality based on patterns of genetic diversity within and between species. The goal is to compare tests based solely on population genetic data with tests using comparative data or a combination of comparative...... and population genetic data. We show that in the presence of repeated selective sweeps on relatively neutral background, tests based on the d(N)/d(S) ratios in comparative data almost always have more power to detect selection than tests based on population genetic data, even if the overall level of divergence...

  2. Investigation of the Nonlinear Model of the Cellular Population System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Vinogradova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An isolated population system is considered which consists of two types of human stem cells: normal cells and cells with chromosomal anomalies (abnormal. In the paper the nonlinear dynamic model which describes dynamics of cell populations developing in vitro is elaborated. The model allows to investigate the processes of the formation of the abnormal cells population from the abnormal cells population of normal cells as well as joint development of these populations. The model takes into account the limited resources.An important feature of the developed model is the use of biological characteristics of processes in the cell population system, such as the proportion of cells, divided over a specified time, the proportion of cells whish are not divided, and which are "lost" and which are passed in the population of abnormal cells from the normal population. This approach allows a more detailed analysis of the impact of various "primary" parameters on the evolution of the population system.Under cultivation of cell populations in vitro a struggle for resources primarily affects the processes of the cell reproduction. This is reflected in the existence of the dividing cells frequency dependence of the total population of normal and abnormal cells. For the account of such dependencies different non-linear functions are typically used. However, the use of such non-linear relationships leads to the difficulties in finding confidence intervals for the estimates of the model parameters at subsequent stages of research. At the same time, the problem of the system parameters estimating and finding of the corresponding confidence intervals for estimates can be solved easy in case when the nonlinear system is linear with respect to the unknown parameters. In the paper it is achieved due to the piecewise linear approximation of nonlinear dependencies.An important feature of the model is a different view of the right part of the differential equations system

  3. Dispersal and population structure of a New World predator, the army ant Eciton burchellii

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berghoff, S M; Kronauer, D J C; Edwards, K J

    2008-01-01

    barriers, which might have severe impacts on population structure and lead to population decline. Using nuclear microsatellite markers and mitochondrial sequences, we investigated genetic differentiation in a fragmented population in the Panama Canal area. While nuclear markers showed little...

  4. Menopause Is Associated with Accelerated Lung Function Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triebner, Kai; Matulonga, Bobette; Johannessen, Ane; Suske, Sandra; Benediktsdóttir, Bryndís; Demoly, Pascal; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Franklin, Karl A; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gullón Blanco, José Antonio; Heinrich, Joachim; Holm, Mathias; Jarvis, Debbie; Jõgi, Rain; Lindberg, Eva; Moratalla Rovira, Jesús Martínez; Muniozguren Agirre, Nerea; Pin, Isabelle; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Puggini, Luca; Raherison, Chantal; Sánchez-Ramos, José Luis; Schlünssen, Vivi; Sunyer, Jordi; Svanes, Cecilie; Hustad, Steinar; Leynaert, Bénédicte; Gómez Real, Francisco

    2017-04-15

    Menopause is associated with changes in sex hormones, which affect immunity, inflammation, and osteoporosis and may impair lung function. Lung function decline has not previously been investigated in relation to menopause. To study whether lung function decline, assessed by FVC and FEV 1 , is accelerated in women who undergo menopause. The population-based longitudinal European Community Respiratory Health Survey provided serum samples, spirometry, and questionnaire data about respiratory and reproductive health from three study waves (n = 1,438). We measured follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone and added information on menstrual patterns to determine menopausal status using latent class analysis. Associations with lung function decline were investigated using linear mixed effects models, adjusting for age, height, weight, pack-years, current smoking, age at completed full-time education, spirometer, and including study center as random effect. Menopausal status was associated with accelerated lung function decline. The adjusted mean FVC decline was increased by -10.2 ml/yr (95% confidence interval [CI], -13.1 to -7.2) in transitional women and -12.5 ml/yr (95% CI, -16.2 to -8.9) in post-menopausal women, compared with women menstruating regularly. The adjusted mean FEV 1 decline increased by -3.8 ml/yr (95% CI, -6.3 to -2.9) in transitional women and -5.2 ml/yr (95% CI, -8.3 to -2.0) in post-menopausal women. Lung function declined more rapidly among transitional and post-menopausal women, in particular for FVC, beyond the expected age change. Clinicians should be aware that respiratory health often deteriorates during reproductive aging.

  5. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  6. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim DaiSik

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. Methods From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents aged 0–64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Results Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14–29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14–16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17–19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7% had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14–16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than

  7. The decline of the impetigo epidemic caused by the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone: an 11.5-year population-based incidence study from a community in Western Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rørtveit, Sverre; Skutlaberg, Dag Harald; Langeland, Nina; Rortveit, Guri

    2014-12-01

    From around the year 2000, Northern Europe experienced a rise in impetigo caused by Staphylococcus aureus resistant to fusidic acid. A single clone of S. aureus was found to be the bacterial pathogen involved in the impetigo outbreak in Norway, Sweden, the UK and Ireland, termed 'the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone' (EEFIC). We have followed the incidence of impetigo during the years 2001-2012 based on all patients in general practice in the island community of Austevoll, Western Norway. We previously reported a marked decline of impetigo incidence in Austevoll, from 0.0260 cases per person-year in 2002 to 0.0038 in 2009. This article explores indications of an end to the impetigo epidemic caused by the EEFIC clone. All four general practitioners (GPs) in the community (mean population = 4400) were asked to diagnose impetigo in a uniform way and to take bacterial specimens from all impetigo cases. Phenotypic characteristics of specimen bacteria were determined for the whole period and molecular analyses were performed on isolates in the period 2008-2012. We observed a further decline in incidence of impetigo in Austevoll in the study period. The proportion of fusidic acid-resistant S. aureus isolates decreased during the period 2002-2012, with a mean of 80% in the epidemic years of 2002-2004, 55% in 2005-2009, and 6% in 2010-2012. In total, 44 S. aureus isolates from impetigo were subject to molecular analyses in the period 2008-2012, and 11 were found to be related to the EEFIC. All EEFIC isolates were found in 2008-2009, with no new isolates in 2010-2012. There is an apparent end to the impetigo epidemic related to the EEFIC in this population in Western Norway.

  8. Cardiovascular Prevention of Cognitive Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Jacques Monsuez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Midlife cardiovascular risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipemia, and an unhealthy lifestyle, have been linked to subsequent incidence, delay of onset, and progression rate of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Conversely, optimal treatment of cardiovascular risk factors prevents and slows down age-related cognitive disorders. The impact of antihypertensive therapy on cognitive outcome in patients with hypertension was assessed in large trials which demonstrated a reduction in progression of MRI white matter hyperintensities, in cognitive decline and in incidence of dementia. Large-scale database correlated statin use and reduction in the incidence of dementia, mainly in patients with documented atherosclerosis, but clinical trials failed to reach similar conclusions. Whether a multitargeted intervention would substantially improve protection, quality of life, and reduce medical cost expenditures in patients with lower risk profile has not been ascertained. This would require appropriately designed trials targeting large populations and focusing on cognitive decline as a primary outcome endpoint.

  9. Investigation of the maxillary lateral incisor agenesis and associated dental anomalies in an orthodontic patient population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamak, Hasan; Yildirim, Hanifi; Ceylan, Ismail

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of maxillary lateral incisor (MLI) agenesis and associated dental anomalies as well as skeletal patterns in an orthodontic population, and then to compare it with the prevalence of these anomalies in the general population. Study Design: The material of the present study included the records of the 3872 orthodontic patients. The followings were recorded for each subject with the agenesis of MLI: Age, sex, unilateral or bilateral absence, anterior-posterior skeletal relationship of the maxilla and mandible, and presence of associated dental anomalies. The occurrence of these anomalies was compared with data previously reported for the general populations. Results: Of the 3872 patients examined, 94 were found to have agenesis of the MLI, representing a prevalence of 2.4 per cent, with females being more frequently observed. The most commonly found associated anomalies were ectopic eruption of maxillary canines and reduced or peg- shaped contralateral incisor with the frequencies of 21.3 per cent and 20.2 per cent respectively. Conclusions: Patients with agenesis of MLI showed a significantly higher prevalence of skeletal Class III malocclusion compared with the general population. The prevalence of ectopic eruption, transposition, and transmigration of the maxillary canine and reduced or peg- shaped MLIs were significantly increased. Key words:Hypodontia, missing laterals, associated dental anomalies. PMID:22549676

  10. Investigation of the maxillary lateral incisor agenesis and associated dental anomalies in an orthodontic patient population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celikoglu, Mevlut; Kamak, Hasan; Yildirim, Hanifi; Ceylan, Ismail

    2012-11-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of maxillary lateral incisor (MLI) agenesis and associated dental anomalies as well as skeletal patterns in an orthodontic population, and then to compare it with the prevalence of these anomalies in the general population. The material of the present study included the records of the 3872 orthodontic patients. The followings were recorded for each subject with the agenesis of MLI: Age, sex, unilateral or bilateral absence, anterior-posterior skeletal relationship of the maxilla and mandible, and presence of associated dental anomalies. The occurrence of these anomalies was compared with data previously reported for the general populations. Of the 3872 patients examined, 94 were found to have agenesis of the MLI, representing a prevalence of 2.4 per cent, with females being more frequently observed. The most commonly found associated anomalies were ectopic eruption of maxillary canines and reduced or peg- shaped contralateral incisor with the frequencies of 21.3 per cent and 20.2 per cent respectively. Patients with agenesis of MLI showed a significantly higher prevalence of skeletal Class III malocclusion compared with the general population. The prevalence of ectopic eruption, transposition, and transmigration of the maxillary canine and reduced or peg- shaped MLIs were significantly increased.

  11. An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Fletcher, Jerald J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971–2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. - Highlights: ► We find Granger Causality running from GDP to coal consumption. ► China can mitigate the adverse environmental effects of coal by altering GDP path. ► We find Granger Causality running from urbanization to electricity production. ► China needs to find other sources of energy to cater for growing electricity demand. ► Increasing urban population may slow economic growth due to overcrowding in cities.

  12. US Historic Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

  13. Declining job security

    OpenAIRE

    Robert G. Valletta

    1998-01-01

    Although common belief and recent evidence point to a decline in "job security," the academic literature to date has been noticeably silent regarding the behavioral underpinnings of declining job security. In this paper, I define job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship. Contracts of this nature imply the possibility of inefficient separations in response to adverse shocks, and they generate predictions concerning...

  14. Seroepidemiological investigation of Toxocara canis in a female Greek pregnant population in the area of Athens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papavasilopoulos, V; Bonatsos, G; Elefsiniotis, I; Birbas, C; Panagopoulos, P; Trakakis, E

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the of areas where the soil is contaminated by Toxocara ova and also to assess seroepidemiological positivity in a Greek pregnant women population (ELISA IgG test). The authors carried out an examination of soil samples collected from different areas of Athens and Piraeus (Kazakos method). Blood serum was only collected from pregnant women living and conducting activities in places close to the places where the soil sample's were collected for at least a decade (ELISA IgG assay). The authors suggest a correlation between the positive response in the ELISA assay IgG antibodies and the activities of people where soil was contaminated by Toxocara eggs. In conclusion, the prevalence of Toxocara canis infection in a population of Greek pregnant women was found to be a rate of 17.16% and the soil contamination rate of 17.08%.

  15. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study: rationale, design and population characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slimani, N.; Kaaks, R.; Ferrari, P.

    2002-01-01

    in a large multi-centre European study. These studies showed that, despite certain inherent methodological and logistic constraints, a study design such as this one works relatively well in practice. The average response in the calibration study was 78.3% and ranged from 46.5% to 92.5%. The calibration......The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which covers a large cohort of half a million men and women from 23 European centres in 10 Western European countries, was designed to study the relationship between diet and the risk of chronic diseases, particularly cancer...... a stratified random sample of 36 900 subjects from the entire EPIC cohort, using a software program (EPIC-SOFT) specifically designed to standardise the dietary measurements across study populations. This paper describes the design and populations of the calibration sub-studies set up in the EPIC centres...

  16. Investigation of vitamin D status and its correlation with insulin resistance in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Bing; Wang, Xiaojin; Wang, Ningjian; Li, Qin; Chen, Yi; Zhu, Chunfang; Chen, Yingchao; Xia, Fangzhen; Pu, Xiaoqi; Cang, Zhen; Zhu, Chaoxia; Lu, Meng; Meng, Ying; Guo, Hui; Chen, Chi; Tu, Weiping; Li, Bin; Hu, Ling; Wang, Bingshun; Lu, Yingli

    2017-06-01

    Although many studies worldwide have focused on the relationship between vitamin D and insulin resistance, results remain controversial. Furthermore, concentrations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) in the Chinese population are unclear. We aimed to investigate vitamin D status and its correlation with insulin resistance among a Chinese adult population. Serum 25(OH)D, fasting blood glucose, fasting insulin, glycated Hb (HbA1c) and other metabolic parameters were assessed. Neck circumference, waist circumference, hip circumference, weight and height were also measured. Lifestyle factors including smoking and drinking status were obtained. Diabetes mellitus was diagnosed by HbA1c according to the 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria. Eastern China. Of 7200 residents included, 6597 individuals were ultimately analysed. We enrolled 2813 males (mean age 52·7 (sd 13·5) years) and 3784 females (52·3 (sd 13·5) years); mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 43·1 (sd 11·6) and 39·6 (sd 9·8) nmol/l, respectively. Additionally, 83·3 % of participants were 25(OH)D deficient. A significant difference in 25(OH)D was observed between males and females in winter and spring (Pinsulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in the overweight and pre-diabetic populations. After adjusting for several variables, 25(OH)D was significantly associated with HOMA-IR in winter. When 25(OH)D values were categorized into quartiles, HOMA-IR was significantly associated with decreasing 25(OH)D. The majority of the Chinese population was vitamin D deficient and this deficiency was negatively associated with insulin resistance, particularly in the overweight and pre-diabetic populations. Moreover, these associations might be more evident in the winter.

  17. Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish and Swedish Holstein Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Gregersen, V R

    2010-01-01

    Abstract This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers...... were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects...

  18. Recent declines in Australian male suicide are real, not artefactual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Andrew; Taylor, Richard; Martin, Graham

    2010-04-01

    The aim of the present study was to clarify the extent to which the recorded marked decline in young male suicide (20-34 years) in Australia since 1998 is attributable to misclassification of cause of death information. Secular trends in young male suicide rates were investigated for the period 1976-2005. Suicide rates in the period after the peak of the epidemic in this age group (1998) were re-calculated based on published estimates of under-enumeration of suicide data, and misclassification of likely suicide cases to other unintentional and undetermined external causes. Two misclassification scenarios were used to revise young male suicide rates from 1998: previously reported estimates of 9% under-enumeration due to misclassification of unintentional causes of death, and 17% under-enumeration due to misclassification of open cases in addition to unintentional causes of death. All-cause mortality was also examined. Recorded male suicide in the 20-34 year age group increased over the study period, peaking in 1998 at 39 per 100,000, before declining sharply in the period 1999-2005 by 44% to 22 per 100,000 in 2005. Following adjustment for misallocation under the first scenario, suicide rates declined 38% to 24 per 100,000, and under the second scenario declined 33% to 26 per 100,000. Revised suicide rates were not materially different from recorded suicide rates based on 95% confidence intervals over this period. All-cause mortality declined from 1999 due to reductions in suicide and other causes. The recent marked decline in young male suicide in Australia is real. The effects of misallocation of likely suicide cases to other causes did not substantially affect population trends in suicide rates in the period after 1998. There is still a need to account in detail for why young male suicide has declined so substantially during the period after 1998.

  19. Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

  20. Investigation on hepatitis C virus infection among different population group in eastern Guangdong province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Kai; Chen Linxing; Zhang Renhua; Yao Zhanchen; Xu Pinghui

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the HCV infection rate and the route of transmission among different population groups in Eastern Gruangdong province. Methods: Anti HCV was detected with EL ISA and HCV-RNA with FQ-PCR in selected population groups in Eastern Guangdong (total 8990 subjects). Results: The anti-HCV positive rates for general population, pregnant women, medical personnel, hepatitis B patients and patients on hemodialysis (HD) were: 0.89%(58/6468), 0.93%(17/1836), 2.93%(5/171), 11.5%(47/410) and 51.4%(54/105) respectively. Twelve of the 17 anti-HCV positive mothers were found to be HCV-RNA positive and two of the 12 infants were also HCV-RNA positive: a mother-to-infant transmission rate of 16.7%. In MD patients, anti HCV positive rate in those with history of transfusion and those without transfusion was 58% and 17% respectively, the difference being significant (P<0.01). Conclusion: Blood transmission was the main route for HCV infection transmission and mother-to-infant transmission as well as infections in medical personnel should be of great concern. (authors)

  1. Investigating Biological Control Agents for Controlling Invasive Populations of the Mealybug Pseudococcus comstocki in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malausa, Thibaut; Delaunay, Mathilde; Fleisch, Alexandre; Groussier-Bout, Géraldine; Warot, Sylvie; Crochard, Didier; Guerrieri, Emilio; Delvare, Gérard; Pellizzari, Giuseppina; Kaydan, M Bora; Al-Khateeb, Nadia; Germain, Jean-François; Brancaccio, Lisa; Le Goff, Isabelle; Bessac, Melissa; Ris, Nicolas; Kreiter, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Pseudococcus comstocki (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) is a mealybug species native to Eastern Asia and present as an invasive pest in northern Italy and southern France since the start of the century. It infests apple and pear trees, grapevines and some ornamental trees. Biocontrol programmes against this pest proved successful in central Asia and North America in the second half of the 20th century. In this study, we investigated possible biocontrol agents against P. comstocki, with the aim of developing a biocontrol programme in France. We carried out systematic DNA-barcoding at each step in the search for a specialist parasitoid. First we characterised the French target populations of P. comstocki. We then identified the parasitoids attacking P. comstocki in France. Finally, we searched for foreign mealybug populations identified a priori as P. comstocki and surveyed their hymenopteran parasitoids. Three mealybug species (P. comstocki, P. viburni and P. cryptus) were identified during the survey, together with at least 16 different parasitoid taxa. We selected candidate biological control agent populations for use against P. comstocki in France, from the species Allotropa burrelli (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) and Acerophagus malinus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae). The coupling of molecular and morphological characterisation for both pests and natural enemies facilitated the programme development and the rejection of unsuitable or generalist parasitoids.

  2. Investigating Biological Control Agents for Controlling Invasive Populations of the Mealybug Pseudococcus comstocki in France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibaut Malausa

    Full Text Available Pseudococcus comstocki (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae is a mealybug species native to Eastern Asia and present as an invasive pest in northern Italy and southern France since the start of the century. It infests apple and pear trees, grapevines and some ornamental trees. Biocontrol programmes against this pest proved successful in central Asia and North America in the second half of the 20th century. In this study, we investigated possible biocontrol agents against P. comstocki, with the aim of developing a biocontrol programme in France. We carried out systematic DNA-barcoding at each step in the search for a specialist parasitoid. First we characterised the French target populations of P. comstocki. We then identified the parasitoids attacking P. comstocki in France. Finally, we searched for foreign mealybug populations identified a priori as P. comstocki and surveyed their hymenopteran parasitoids. Three mealybug species (P. comstocki, P. viburni and P. cryptus were identified during the survey, together with at least 16 different parasitoid taxa. We selected candidate biological control agent populations for use against P. comstocki in France, from the species Allotropa burrelli (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae and Acerophagus malinus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae. The coupling of molecular and morphological characterisation for both pests and natural enemies facilitated the programme development and the rejection of unsuitable or generalist parasitoids.

  3. Analytical investigation of the effects of lateral connections on the accuracy of population coding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oizumi, Masafumi; Miura, Keiji; Okada, Masato

    2010-05-01

    We studied how lateral connections affect the accuracy of a population code by using a model of orientation selectivity in the primary visual cortex. Investigating the effects of lateral connections on population coding is a complex problem because these connections simultaneously change the shape of tuning curves and correlations between neurons. Both of these changes caused by lateral connections have to be taken into consideration to correctly evaluate their effects. We propose a theoretical framework for analytically computing the Fisher information, which measures the accuracy of a population code, in stochastic spiking neuron models with refractory periods. Within our framework, we accurately evaluated both the changes in tuning curves and correlations caused by lateral connections and their effects on the Fisher information. We found that their effects conflicted with each other and the answer to whether or not the lateral connections increased the Fisher information strongly depended on the intrinsic properties of the model neuron. By systematically changing the coupling strengths of excitations and inhibitions, we found the parameter regions of lateral connectivities where sharpening of tuning curves through Mexican-hat connectivities led to an increase in information, which is in contrast to some previous findings.

  4. Investigation of natural radiation background and assessment of its population dose in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the nationwide survey in 1984-1988 of environmental external radiation by integrating measurements, and the assessment of population doses from obtained data. Thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) model ETLD-80 with CaSO 4 : Dy were used. The survey was conducted in two different scales. In general survey, TLDs were distributed in whole area of every investigated provinces; and in local survey, one city and one village within each province were selected and investigated for the purpose of comparison of the natural radiation levels between the rural and urban areas. A marked characteristics was noted that the level of natural environmental radiation in south China seems to be higher than that in north China. It may be attributed to the geological difference in both parts. The annual individual average and collective effective dose equivalents to population of China from natural environmental radiation were estimated to be 780 μSv and 8.1 x 10 5 man. Sv, based on the model recommended by UNSCEAR 1988 Report

  5. Forest decline through radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

    1985-01-01

    Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

  6. Declining Black Employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedder, Richard; Gallaway, Lowell

    1993-01-01

    Explores income inequality during declining African-American employment, examines current welfare systems, and suggests ways to improve the economic disadvantages of minority groups. Letting markets work can improve the economic status of African Americans. The present dual African-American economy, a market economy and an entitlement economy, is…

  7. Investigating molecular basis of lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in an Anopheles funestus population from Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samb, Badara; Konate, Lassana; Irving, Helen; Riveron, Jacob M; Dia, Ibrahima; Faye, Ousmane; Wondji, Charles S

    2016-08-12

    Anopheles funestus is one of the major malaria vectors in tropical Africa, notably in Senegal. The highly anthropophilic and endophilic behaviours of this mosquito make it a good target for vector control operations through the use of insecticide treated nets, long-lasting insecticide nets and indoor residual spraying. However, little is known about patterns of resistance to insecticides and the underlying resistance mechanisms in field populations of this vector in Senegal. Here, we assessed the susceptibility status of An. funestus populations from Gankette Balla, located in northern Senegal and investigated the potential resistance mechanisms. WHO bioassays indicated that An. funestus is resistant to lambda-cyhalothrin 0.05 % (74.64 % mortality), DDT 4 % (83.36 % mortality) and deltamethrin 0.05 % (88.53 % mortality). Suspected resistance was observed to permethrin 0.75 % (91.19 % mortality), bendiocarb 0.1 % (94.13 % mortality) and dieldrin 4 % (96.41 % mortality). However, this population is fully susceptible to malathion 5 % (100 % mortality) and fenitrothion 1 % (100 % mortality). The microarray and qRT-PCR analysis indicated that the lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in Gankette Balla is conferred by metabolic resistance mechanisms under the probable control of cytochrome P450 genes among which CYP6M7 is the most overexpressed. The absence of overexpression of the P450 gene, CYP6P9a, indicates that the resistance mechanism in Senegal is different to that observed in southern Africa. This study represents the first report of pyrethroid and DDT resistance in An. funestus from Senegal and shows that resistance to insecticides is not only confined to An. gambiae as previously thought. Therefore, urgent action should be taken to manage the resistance in this species to ensure the continued effectiveness of malaria control.

  8. Investigating paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in a population of internet users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricola, Eleonora; Gesualdo, Francesco; Carloni, Emanuela; D'Ambrosio, Angelo; Russo, Luisa; Campagna, Ilaria; Pandolfi, Elisabetta; Tozzi, Alberto E

    2016-04-14

    Paternal preconception risk factors such as smoking, exposure to environmental substances, medication use, overweight and advanced age correlate with the occurrence of malformations and birth defects in the offspring. Nonetheless, the prevalence of risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in the male population has been scarcely investigated and no report on preconception interventions targeting prospective fathers is available. We conducted a web-based survey to measure the prevalence of paternal preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes in an Italian population of Internet users. Prospective or expectant fathers were enrolled during a four-week period through two of the main Italian web-sites dedicated to preconception, pregnancy, childhood and family care. Participants filled in a web questionnaire regarding preconception risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the predictors of paternal preconception risk factors. We enrolled 131 prospective and 205 expectant fathers. More than half of the total participants used medications during the preconception period, 35% were smokers and 8% were obese. Exposure to environmental substances was declared by almost 20% of the participants, with the group including pesticides/herbicides/professional paints being the most prevalent. More than a half of the study sample included men aged over 35 years. According to the multivariate analysis, smoking and exposure to environmental toxics were less frequent among individuals with a university degree (respectively: OR = 0.52; 95% CI 0.32-0.84; OR = 0.52; 95% CI 0.29-0.93). Paternal obesity and medication use in the preconception period were not associated with any of the independent variables. The prevalence of preconception risk factors among male population should not be neglected when planning preconception interventions, confirming that preconception health must be focused on the couple, rather

  9. Microbial population analysis improves the evidential value of faecal traces in forensic investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaak, Frederike C A; de Graaf, Mei-Lan M; Weterings, Rob; Kuiper, Irene

    2017-01-01

    The forensic science community has a growing interest in microbial population analysis, especially the microbial populations found inside and on the human body. Both their high abundance, microbes outnumber human cells by a factor 10, and their diversity, different sites of the human body harbour different microbial communities, make them an interesting tool for forensics. Faecal material is a type of trace evidence which can be found in a variety of criminal cases, but is often being ignored in forensic investigations. Deriving a human short tandem repeat (STR) profile from a faecal sample can be challenging. However, the microbial communities within faecal material can be of additional criminalistic value in linking a faecal trace to the possible donor. We present a microarray technique in which the faecal microbial community is used to differentiate between faecal samples and developed a decision model to predict the possible common origin of questioned samples. The results show that this technique may be a useful additional tool when no or only partial human STR profiles can be generated.

  10. INVESTIGATION OF ALFALFA LOCAL POPULATIONS FOR CREATION OF NEW BREEDING GERMPLAZM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihomir Čupić

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Yield of dry matter and green mass are important factors in selection of fodder crop cultivars. Low genetic gain was achieved during the long time of fodder crops breeding for yield. Therefore we investigated possibility of using local populations of alfalfa for yield increase with direct and indirect selection. Strong and significant influence of genotypes and environments was recorded for all examined traits and their interactions at the level p<0.01. The highest variability was recorded for green mass yield 48.21%; while the lowest variation was for height 13.18%. High share of genotype variance as well as high heritability were recorded in total variance for the traits number of stem and plant height.

  11. The Main Reasons of Declining Educational Standards at Secondary Level in Karachi, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faizi, Waqar-un-Nisa; Shakil, Anila Fatima; Lodhi, Farida Azim

    2011-01-01

    The cause of this investigation was to identify the main reasons which decline the educational standards at secondary level in Karachi, Pakistan. It was carried out through survey. The population of the study was both "government and private" schools students and teachers. The views of male and female students and teachers were sought…

  12. Decline of large mammals in the Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the Katavi-Rukwa ecosystem of western Tanzania, aerial censuses carried out between 1988 and 2002 show that populations of several large ungulate species had declined. Five competing factors that could be responsible for these changes were investigated. (i) Rainfall increased slightly over 25 years and (ii) no ...

  13. The Main Reasons of Declining Educational Standards at Secondary Level in Karachi, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodhi, Farida Azeem; Faizi, Waqar Un Nisa

    2009-01-01

    The cause of this investigation was to identify the main reasons which decline the educational standards at secondary level in Karachi, Pakistan. It was carried out through survey. The population of the study was the both Government and Private schools students and teachers. The views of male and female students and teachers were sought out. One…

  14. Asymmetric disassembly and robustness in declining networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saavedra, Serguei; Reed-Tsochas, Felix; Uzzi, Brian

    2008-01-01

    Mechanisms that enable declining networks to avert structural collapse and performance degradation are not well understood. This knowledge gap reflects a shortage of data on declining networks and an emphasis on models of network growth. Analyzing >700,000 transactions between firms in the New York garment industry over 19 years, we tracked this network's decline and measured how its topology and global performance evolved. We find that favoring asymmetric (disassortative) links is key to preserving the topology and functionality of the declining network. Based on our findings, we tested a model of network decline that combines an asymmetric disassembly process for contraction with a preferential attachment process for regrowth. Our simulation results indicate that the model can explain robustness under decline even if the total population of nodes contracts by more than an order of magnitude, in line with our observations for the empirical network. These findings suggest that disassembly mechanisms are not simply assembly mechanisms in reverse and that our model is relevant to understanding the process of decline and collapse in a broad range of biological, technological, and financial networks. PMID:18936489

  15. Power Analysis for Population-Based Longitudinal Studies Investigating Gene-Environment Interactions in Chronic Diseases: A Simulation Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhui Ma

    Full Text Available Conventional methods for sample size calculation for population-based longitudinal studies tend to overestimate the statistical power by overlooking important determinants of the required sample size, such as the measurement errors and unmeasured etiological determinants, etc. In contrast, a simulation-based sample size calculation, if designed properly, allows these determinants to be taken into account and offers flexibility in accommodating complex study design features. The Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA is a Canada-wide, 20-year follow-up study of 30,000 people between the ages of 45 and 85 years, with in-depth information collected every 3 years. A simulation study, based on an illness-death model, was conducted to: (1 investigate the statistical power profile of the CLSA to detect the effect of environmental and genetic risk factors, and their interaction on age-related chronic diseases; and (2 explore the design alternatives and implementation strategies for increasing the statistical power of population-based longitudinal studies in general. The results showed that the statistical power to identify the effect of environmental and genetic risk exposures, and their interaction on a disease was boosted when: (1 the prevalence of the risk exposures increased; (2 the disease of interest is relatively common in the population; and (3 risk exposures were measured accurately. In addition, the frequency of data collection every three years in the CLSA led to a slightly lower statistical power compared to the design assuming that participants underwent health monitoring continuously. The CLSA had sufficient power to detect a small (1

  16. The fertility decline in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

    1995-01-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

  17. Connectivity between Migrating and Landlocked Populations of a Diadromous fish Species Investigated Using Otolith Microchemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.Y.M.; Keller, A.M.; Navez, J.; Winter, H.V.; Graaf, de M.; Baeyens, W.

    2013-01-01

    Smelt Osmerus eperlanus has two different life history strategies in the Netherlands. The migrating population inhabits the Wadden Sea and spawns in freshwater areas. After the closure of the Afsluitdijk in 1932, part of the smelt population became landlocked. The fresh water smelt population has

  18. Cannabis use and anxiety in daily life: a naturalistic investigation in a non-clinical population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournier, Marie; Sorbara, Frédéric; Gindre, Claire; Swendsen, Joel D; Verdoux, Hélène

    2003-05-01

    The study's objective was to investigate in a non-clinical population the association between cannabis use and anxiety in daily life using the Experience Sampling Method (ESM). Seventy-nine subjects with high or low levels of cannabis use were selected among a sample of 685 undergraduate university students. ESM was used to collect information on cannabis use and state-anxiety in daily life. DSM-IV diagnoses were assessed using a structured clinical interview. Statistical analyses were performed using multilevel linear random regression models. There was no significant association between the level of state anxiety and cannabis use in daily life. However, a diagnosis of agoraphobia was significantly associated with increased likelihood of cannabis use, independent of state anxiety and other confounding factors. No evidence was found for an anxiolytic or anxiogenic effect of cannabis in daily life. This finding does not support the hypothesis that subjects with high levels of anxiety use cannabis as a means of self-medication. The association between agoraphobia and cannabis use in daily life may be explained by anticipatory anxiety secondary to previous cannabis-induced panic-like symptoms.

  19. Mangrove forest decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malik, Abdul; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove forests in the tropics and subtropics grow in saline sediments in coastal and estuarine environments. Preservation of mangrove forests is important for many reasons, including the prevention of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion; the provision of spawning, nursery, and feeding grounds...... change in dense mangrove forest cover (8.37 %) occurred during the period 2006–2011. The changes were caused mainly by the mangrove clearing and conversion to aquaculture, and consequences have been increasing forest degradation, coastal abrasion, seawater intrusion, a decline in fish capture...

  20. Negative perceptions of aging predict longitudinal decline in cognitive function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Deirdre A; King-Kallimanis, Bellinda L; Kenny, Rose Anne

    2016-02-01

    Perceptions of aging have been shown to impact the psychological and physical health of older adults. Experimental studies have found that priming older adults with negative attitudes toward aging results in immediate declines in psychological, physical and cognitive functions. Longitudinal studies have supported this work illustrating the longer term impact of negative and positive perceptions of aging on psychological and physical health. However, it is surprising that there are a limited number of studies that have investigated the longitudinal association between perceptions of aging and cognitive function. The aim of this article is therefore to explore the association between perceptions of aging and cognitive function across a number of domains in a population representative sample of adults aged 50 and older. The sample was assessed twice over 2 years. Negative perceptions of aging at baseline were independently associated with longitudinal decline in verbal fluency and self-rated memory over a 2-year period after adjustment for physical and mental health. These findings suggest that negative perceptions of aging may play a role in cognitive decline in the older population. Furthermore, aging perceptions may be a modifiable factor to target for future interventions. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Molecular typing and epidemiological investigation of clinical populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa using an oligonucleotide-microarray

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballarini Annalisa

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen which has the potential to become extremely harmful in the nosocomial environment, especially for cystic fibrosis (CF patients, who are easily affected by chronic lung infections. For epidemiological purposes, discriminating P.aeruginosa isolates is a critical step, to define distribution of clones among hospital departments, to predict occurring microevolution events and to correlate clones to their source. A collection of 182 P. aeruginosa clinical strains isolated within Italian hospitals from patients with chronic infections, i.e. cystic fibrosis (CF patients, and with acute infections were genotyped. Molecular typing was performed with the ArrayTube (AT multimarker microarray (Alere Technologies GmbH, Jena, Germany, a cost-effective, time-saving and standardized method, which addresses genes from both the core and accessory P.aeruginosa genome. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE and multilocus sequence typing (MLST were employed as reference genotyping techniques to estimate the ArrayTube resolution power. Results 41 AT-genotypes were identified within our collection, among which 14 were novel and 27 had been previously described in publicly available AT-databases. Almost 30% of the genotypes belonged to a main cluster of clones. 4B9A, EC2A, 3C2A were mostly associated to CF-patients whereas F469, 2C1A, 6C22 to non CF. An investigation on co-infections events revealed that almost 40% of CF patients were colonized by more than one genotype, whereas less than 4% were observed in non CF patients. The presence of the exoU gene correlated with non-CF patients within the intensive care unit (ICU whereas the pKLC102-like island appeared to be prevalent in the CF centre. The congruence between the ArrayTube typing and PFGE or MLST was 0.077 and 0.559 (Adjusted Rand coefficient, respectively. AT typing of this Italian collection could be easily integrated with the global P

  2. Pilot case-control investigation of risk factors for hip fractures in the urban Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malhotra Nidhi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the reported high prevalence of osteoporosis in India, there have been no previous studies examining the risk factors for hip fracture in the Indian population. Methods We carried out a case control investigation comprising 100 case subjects (57 women and 43 men admitted with a first hip fracture into one of three hospitals across New Delhi. The 100 controls were age and sex matched subjects who were either healthy visitors not related to the case patients or hospital staff. Information from all subjects was obtained through a questionnaire based interview. Results There was a significant increase in the number of cases of hip fracture with increasing age. There were significantly more women (57% than men (43%. Univariate analysis identified protective effects for increased activity, exercise, calcium and vitamin supplements, almonds, fish, paneer (cottage cheese, curd (plain yogurt, and milk. However, tea and other caffeinated beverages were significant risk factors. In women, hormone/estrogen therapy appeared to have a marginal protective effect. For all cases, decreased agility, visual impairment, long term medications, chronic illnesses increased the risk of hip fracture. The multivariate analysis confirmed a protective effect of increased activity and also showed a decrease in hip fracture risk with increasing body mass index (odds ratio (OR 0.024, 95% confidence interval (CI 0.006-0.10 & OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.97 respectively. Individuals who take calcium supplements have a decreased risk of hip fracture (OR 0.076; CI 0.017-0.340, as do individuals who eat fish (OR 0.094; CI 0.020-0.431, and those who eat paneer (OR 0.152; 0.031-0.741. Tea drinkers have a higher risk of hip fracture (OR 22.8; 95% CI 3.73-139.43. Difficulty in getting up from a chair also appears to be an important risk factor for hip fractures (OR 14.53; 95% CI 3.86-54.23. Conclusions In the urban Indian population, dietary calcium, vitamin D

  3. Molecular typing and epidemiological investigation of clinical populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa using an oligonucleotide-microarray.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballarini, Annalisa; Scalet, Giovanna; Kos, Malgorzata; Cramer, Nina; Wiehlmann, Lutz; Jousson, Olivier

    2012-07-27

    Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen which has the potential to become extremely harmful in the nosocomial environment, especially for cystic fibrosis (CF) patients, who are easily affected by chronic lung infections. For epidemiological purposes, discriminating P.aeruginosa isolates is a critical step, to define distribution of clones among hospital departments, to predict occurring microevolution events and to correlate clones to their source. A collection of 182 P. aeruginosa clinical strains isolated within Italian hospitals from patients with chronic infections, i.e. cystic fibrosis (CF) patients, and with acute infections were genotyped. Molecular typing was performed with the ArrayTube (AT) multimarker microarray (Alere Technologies GmbH, Jena, Germany), a cost-effective, time-saving and standardized method, which addresses genes from both the core and accessory P.aeruginosa genome. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were employed as reference genotyping techniques to estimate the ArrayTube resolution power. 41 AT-genotypes were identified within our collection, among which 14 were novel and 27 had been previously described in publicly available AT-databases. Almost 30% of the genotypes belonged to a main cluster of clones. 4B9A, EC2A, 3C2A were mostly associated to CF-patients whereas F469, 2C1A, 6C22 to non CF. An investigation on co-infections events revealed that almost 40% of CF patients were colonized by more than one genotype, whereas less than 4% were observed in non CF patients. The presence of the exoU gene correlated with non-CF patients within the intensive care unit (ICU) whereas the pKLC102-like island appeared to be prevalent in the CF centre. The congruence between the ArrayTube typing and PFGE or MLST was 0.077 and 0.559 (Adjusted Rand coefficient), respectively.AT typing of this Italian collection could be easily integrated with the global P. aeruginosa AT-typed population

  4. Age-dependent terminal declines in reproductive output in a wild bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martijn Hammers

    Full Text Available In many iteroparous species individual fitness components, such as reproductive output, first increase with age and then decline during late-life. However, individuals differ greatly in reproductive lifespan, but reproductive declines may only occur in the period just before their death as a result of an age-independent decline in physiological condition. To fully understand reproductive senescence it is important to investigate to what extent declines in late-life reproduction can be explained by age, time until death, or both. However, the study of late-life fitness performance in natural populations is challenging as the exact birth and death dates of individuals are often not known, and most individuals succumb to extrinsic mortality before reaching old age. Here, we used an exceptional long-term longitudinal dataset of individuals from a natural, closed, and predator-free population of the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis to investigate reproductive output, both in relation to age and to the time until the death of an individual (reverse-age approach. We observed an initial age-dependent increase in reproductive output that was followed by a decline in old age. However, we found no significant decline in reproductive output in the years directly preceding death. Although post-peak reproductive output declined with age, this pattern differed between terminal and non-terminal reproductive attempts, and the age-dependence of the terminal breeding attempt explained much of the variation in age-specific reproductive output. In fact, terminal declines in reproductive output were steeper in very old individuals. These results indicate that not only age-dependent, but also age-independent factors, such as physiological condition, need to be considered to understand reproductive senescence in wild-living animals.

  5. Investigating Global Ion and Neutral Atom Populations with IBEX and Voyager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florinski, Vladimir

    2016-01-01

    The main objective of this project was to investigate pickup ion (PUI) production in the solar wind and heliosheath (the region between the termination shock and the heliopause) and compute the distributed energetic neutral atom fluxes throughout the helioshpere. The simulations were constrained by comparing the model output against observations from Ulysses, New Horizons, Voyager 1 and 2, and IBEX space probes. As evidenced by the number of peer reviewed journal publications resulting from the project (13 plus three submitted) and their citation rate (156 citations over three years), the project has made a lasting contribution to the field. The outcome is a significant improvement of our understanding of the pickup ion production and distribution in the distant heliosphere. The team has accomplished the entire set of tasks A-H set forth in the proposal. Namely, the transport modeling framework has been augmented with two populations of pickup ions (PUIs), the boundary conditions for the plasma and interstellar neutral hydrogen were verified against Ulysses and New Horizons PUI and an optimal set of velocity diffusion parameters established. The multi-component fluxes of PUIs were computed and isotropic velocity distributions generated for each cell in the computer simulation that covered the heliosphere from 1.5 AU to the heliopause. The distributions were carefully compared with in situ measurements at 3 AU (Ulysses), 12 AU (New Horizons), and 80-90 AU (Voyager 1 and 2) as well as those inferred from ENA fluxes measured by Cassini and IBEX (Wu et al., 2016). Some examples of modeldata comparison are shown in Figure 1. We have used coupled MHD-plasma and kinetic-neutral code to investigate the likely range of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the local interstellar medium (LISM), based on the assumption that the shape of the IBEX ribbon could be used to determine the orientation of the interstellar magnetic field. While the magnetic field is believed to be

  6. Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  7. Is Rising Obesity Causing a Secular (Age-Independent) Decline in Testosterone among American Men?

    OpenAIRE

    Mazur, Allan; Westerman, Ronny; Mueller, Ulrich

    2013-01-01

    The testosterone of men in industrial societies peaks in their twenties and tends to decline with increasing age. Apart from this individual-level decline, there have been reports of a secular (age-independent population-level) decline in testosterone among American and Scandinavian men during the past few decades, possibly an indication of declining male reproductive health. It has been suggested that both declines in testosterone (individual-level and population-level) are due to increasing...

  8. [Investigation of urinary cadmium characteristics of the general population in three non-cadmium-polluted rural areas in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jingxiu; Hu, Ji; Sun, Hong; Jing, Qiqing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Lou, Xiaoming; Ding, Zhen; Chen, Xiaodong; Zhang, Wenli; Shang, Qi

    2014-11-01

    To investigate the characteristics of urinary cadmium of the non-occupational-cadmium-exposed population in non-cadmium contaminated rural area in China. Randomly selected non-occupational cadmium exposed population 2548 people (male 1290, female 1258) with each gender and age groups, questionnaire surveyed and collected random urine. Urinary cadmium and urinary creatinine (Cr) concentration were tested, excluding urinary Cr 3 g/L. Analyze the impact factors of urinary cadmium and calculated 95% quantile (P95) of urinary cadmium after correction by urinary Cr. Urinary cadmium increased with age and showed an upward trend. The urinary cadmium of the population of ≥ 30 years old was significantly higher than that of populations (China (GB Z17-2002). The urinary cadmium reference value of non-occupational-cadmium-exposed populations is China, but for smoking women over 30 year-old it needs more research to explore.

  9. Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Feng

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs, three nuclear genes (nDNAs and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs, we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.

  10. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause.

  11. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause

  12. Beam maser investigation of population inversion mechanisms for interstellar hydroxyl radicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meulen, J.J. ter

    1976-01-01

    The population transport processes in electron collisions were studied for OH radicals in the 2 IIsub(3/2), J = 3/2, F = / and J = 5/2, F = 3 states. The transition frequencies of the main Λ doublet transitions (ΔF = 0) for the 2 PIsub(3/2) states up to J = 9/2 were measured with an accuracy of 100-200 Hz. The results of the measurements are analyzed with the aid of the calculated cross-sections and state-selector efficiencies. The results for the J = 3/2 state are in agreement with the calculations for an electron energy >= 0.2 eV. The measured ratio between the inelastic collision effects for molecules in the J = 3/2, F = 2 and J = 5/2, F = 3 state is 30 to 40% greater as the calculated value at 0.2 eV. Measurements of the 2 PIsub(3/2), J = 3/2 gave no indications within experimental error for population inversion by electron collisions. A population inversion was observed which was created in the OH source region. For the 2 PIsub(3/2), J = 3/2, 5/2 and 7/2 states, a population inversion of 2-5% was measured. This was confirmed by MBER spectrometer measurements which also gave evidence of a strong population inversion for the 2 PIsub(1/2), J = 1/2 state and a weak inversion for the 2 PIsub(1/2), J >= 3/2 states. The results strongly resemble the population inversions of interstellar OH radicals. The inversion can be created in the primary OH producing reaction, although inversion by collisions can not be totally excluded. On the basis of the measurements, the author concluded that chemical interactions could be responsible for the population inversion of interstellar hydroxyl radicals

  13. Investigations on radiosensitive and radioresistant populations of Drosophila melanogaster. Pt. 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noethel, H.

    1981-01-01

    In earlier work, immature oocytes of the irradiated population RoeI 4 of Drosophila melanogaster were found to be radioresistant relative to those of the basic population RoeI and to those of the control population Berlin wild (+K). The resistance of RoeI 4 relative to RoeI was previously attributed to a hypothetical 'factor' rar-3. In the present paper, evidence is presented to show that rar-3 is a single, recessive genetic factor, located on chromosome 3 at a map position of about 49.8. The action of rar-3 is apparently independent of that of rar-1 and rar-2, the factors already present in RoeI. (orig.)

  14. Estimation of stature from hand and handprint measurements in Iban population in Sarawak, Malaysia and its applications in forensic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkifly, Nuranis-Raihan; Wahab, Roswanira Abd; Layang, Elizabeth; Ismail, Dzulkiflee; Desa, Wan Nur Syuhaila Mat; Hisham, Salina; Mahat, Naji A

    2018-01-01

    Handprints and dismembered hands are commonly found during crime scene investigations and disaster victim identifications, respectively. It has been indicated that the accuracy of handprint and hand measurements for estimating stature maybe population specific. Since Iban is the largest ethnic population in Sarawak, Malaysia and because the application of anthropometry of hand and handprint within this population as well as other populations within the Southeast Asian countries remain unreported, this present study that investigated the reliability and accuracy of these two anthropometric aspects acquires forensic significance. Upon measuring the height, 21 measurements were recorded on each hand and the corresponding handprint of 50 male and 52 female consented adult Iban subjects. Using univariate statistics as well as simple and multiple regression analyses, interpretation of the measurements examined here was attempted. Results revealed that lengths of hand and handprint are the more reliable traits for estimating stature in both the male and female Iban subjects (p population in Sarawak that may prove useful for crime scene investigations and disaster victim identifications in Malaysia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  15. Investigating Measures of Social Context on 2 Population-Based Health Surveys, Hawaii, 2010-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pobutsky, Ann M; Baker, Kathleen Kromer; Reyes-Salvail, Florentina

    2015-12-17

    Measures from the Social Context Module of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used on 2 population-based health surveys in Hawaii to explicate the role of the nonmedical and social determinants of health; these measures were also compared with conventional socioeconomic status (SES) variables. Results showed that the self-reported SES vulnerabilities of food and housing insecurity are both linked to demographic factors and physical and mental health status and significant when controlling for the conventional measures of SES. The social context module indicators should be increasingly used so results can inform appropriate interventions for vulnerable populations.

  16. The origin of the isolated population of the Faroe Islands investigated using Y chromosomal markers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, Tove H; Buttenschön, Henriette N; Wang, August G

    2004-01-01

    Historical, archaeological and linguistic sources suggest that the ancestors of the present day population in the Faroe Islands may have their origin in several different regions surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean. In this study we use binary and microsatellite markers of the Y chromosome...... and the Norwegian, Swedish and Icelandic Y chromosomes but also some similarity with the Scottish and Irish Y chromosomes. Diversity measures and estimates of effective population sizes also suggest that the original gene pool of the settlers have been influenced by random genetic drift, thus complicating direct...... by males originating from the same regions of Scandinavia and, to a lesser extent, from the British Isles....

  17. A Classroom Investigation of the Effect of Population Size and Income on Success in the London 2012 Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Nancy; Felton, Nathan; Schwertman, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Engaging students in active learning can enhance their understanding and appreciation of a subject such as statistics. Classroom activities and projects help to engage students and further promote the learning process. In this paper, an activity investigating the influence of population size and wealth on the medal counts from the 2012 London…

  18. A Longitudinal Investigation of Reading Development from Kindergarten to Grade Eight in a Spanish-Speaking Bilingual Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Ryan P.; Solari, Emily J.; Gerber, Michael M.

    2018-01-01

    This longitudinal study used latent growth curve modeling to investigate English literacy development in a sample of Spanish-speaking language minority students from third through eighth grade. This study also compared the sample's literacy development to the entire population of California students using state standardized test data. Second, this…

  19. An Investigation of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in an Adolescent Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfgang, James; Dennison, Darwin

    1982-01-01

    A study was conducted to analyze high school students' self-reports and to determine biomedical cardiovascular disease risk factors in an adolescent population. Factors evaluated included smoking frequency, dietary fat intake, saturated fat intake, and cholesterol/high density lipoprotein ratio. (JN)

  20. An Empirical Investigation of Group Treatment for a Clinical Population of Adult Female Incest Survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxe, Brenda J.; Johnson, Susan M.

    1999-01-01

    Empirically assesses the effectiveness of a group treatment program on intrapersonal symptomatology and interpersonal difficulties in a clinical population of women with a history of incest. Results indicate that a time-limited group, which focuses on the original trauma, is effective in reducing intrapersonal symptomatology for women with a…

  1. Alarming decline and range reduction of the highly threatened Great ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Great Bustard Otis tarda survey carried out in spring 2015 in Morocco confirmed the decline of this highly endangered population. Bustards were only seen at two of the seven leks occupied ten years ago. The total number of birds counted was 40-44, which represents a 40% decline over the last decade. The sex-ratio ...

  2. Cognitive Decline and Dementia in the Oldest-Old

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efrat Kravitz

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The oldest-old are the fastest growing segment of the Western population. Over half of the oldest-old will have dementia, but the etiology is yet unknown. Age is the only risk factor consistently associated with dementia in the oldest-old. Many of the risk and protective factors for dementia in the young elderly, such as ApoE genotype, physical activity, and healthy lifestyle, are not relevant for the oldest-old. Neuropathology is abundant in the oldest-old brains, but specific pathologies of Alzheimer’s disease (AD or vascular dementia are not necessarily correlated with cognition, as in younger persons. It has been suggested that accumulation of both AD-like and vascular pathologies, loss of synaptic proteins, and neuronal loss contribute to the cognitive decline observed in the oldest-old. Several characteristics of the oldest-old may confound the diagnosis of dementia in this age group. A gradual age-related cognitive decline, particularly in executive function and mental speed, is evident even in non-demented oldest-old. Hearing and vision losses, which are also prevalent in the oldest-old and found in some cases to precede/predict cognitive decline, may mechanically interfere in neuropsychological evaluations. Difficulties in carrying out everyday activities, observed in the majority of the oldest-old, may be the result of motor or physical dysfunction and of neurodegenerative processes. The oldest-old appear to be a select population, who escapes major illnesses or delays their onset and duration toward the end of life. Dementia in the oldest-old may be manifested when a substantial amount of pathology is accumulated, or with a composition of a variety of pathologies. Investigating the clinical and pathological features of dementia in the oldest-old is of great importance in order to develop therapeutic strategies and to provide the most elderly of our population with good quality of life.

  3. The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

    2015-01-01

    Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate

  4. Why choice of metric matters in public health analyses: a case study of the attribution of credit for the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the US and other populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gouda Hebe N

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reasons for the widespread declines in coronary heart disease (CHD mortality in high income countries are controversial. Here we explore how the type of metric chosen for the analyses of these declines affects the answer obtained. Methods The analyses we reviewed were performed using IMPACT, a large Excel based model of the determinants of temporal change in mortality from CHD. Assessments of the decline in CHD mortality in the USA between 1980 and 2000 served as the central case study. Results Analyses based in the metric of number of deaths prevented attributed about half the decline to treatments (including preventive medications and half to favourable shifts in risk factors. However, when mortality change was expressed in the metric of life-years-gained, the share attributed to risk factor change rose to 65%. This happened because risk factor changes were modelled as slowing disease progression, such that the hypothetical deaths averted resulted in longer average remaining lifetimes gained than the deaths averted by better treatments. This result was robust to a range of plausible assumptions on the relative effect sizes of changes in treatments and risk factors. Conclusions Time-based metrics (such as life years are generally preferable because they direct attention to the changes in the natural history of disease that are produced by changes in key health determinants. The life-years attached to each death averted will also weight deaths in a way that better reflects social preferences.

  5. Microfabricated cells for chip-scale atomic clock based on coherent population trapping: Fabrication and investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Ermak

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A universal method for fabrication of miniature cells for frequency standards and quantum magnetometers containing 87Rb atoms in the atmosphere of inert gas neon based on integrated technologies is considered. The results of experimental studies of coherent population trapping signals observed for a series of cells which provided recovery of vapors of an alkali metal from the rubidium dichromate salt with the help of laser radiation are presented. The coherent population trapping signals with a typical linewidth of 2–3 kHz and a signal-to-noise ratio of 1500 in the 1-Hz bandwidth were observed, which allows one to provide a relative frequency stability of atomic clock of 10−11 at 100 s.

  6. Strategy, Innovation and Revitalizing Declining Newspaper Industries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vang, Jan; Nielsen, Anders Paarup

    2006-01-01

    This paper is concerned with investigating whether the insights from the strategic management literature can be applied to revitalize so-called mature and declining industries. In line with this literature, the paper argues that the cause of the mature industries’ challenges should be found in ho...

  7. Determination of existing exposure level of population during X ray investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tselinov, N.V.; Kudritskij, Yu.K.

    1978-01-01

    The distribution of X ray procedures among 500 inhabitants of the city of Vorkuta in 1975 is studied. Data on the distribution of the subjects by age group and type of X ray procedure are presented. The results obtained broaden the existing concepts on hygienic importance of radiation received by the population of the country during X ray studies. It is proposed that these results be used in developing methods for standardizing X ray procedures

  8. Genetic data from koala scats: method development and investigation of a unique population in South Gippsland

    OpenAIRE

    FAYE ELIZABETH WEDROWICZ

    2018-01-01

    Koala populations are being impacted by threats including habitat loss, urban development, disease, dog attacks, road trauma and climatic events such as drought and bush fire. Due to a lack of genetic diversity, Victorian koalas are also vulnerable to future environmental change. This research developed molecular methods which used DNA isolated from koala scats to determine gender, unequivocally identify individuals and detect pathogens affecting koala health. Developed methods were used to i...

  9. A statistical investigation into the stability of iris recognition in diverse population sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, John J.; Etter, Delores M.

    2014-05-01

    Iris recognition is increasingly being deployed on population wide scales for important applications such as border security, social service administration, criminal identification and general population management. The error rates for this incredibly accurate form of biometric identification are established using well known, laboratory quality datasets. However, it is has long been acknowledged in biometric theory that not all individuals have the same likelihood of being correctly serviced by a biometric system. Typically, techniques for identifying clients that are likely to experience a false non-match or a false match error are carried out on a per-subject basis. This research makes the novel hypothesis that certain ethnical denominations are more or less likely to experience a biometric error. Through established statistical techniques, we demonstrate this hypothesis to be true and document the notable effect that the ethnicity of the client has on iris similarity scores. Understanding the expected impact of ethnical diversity on iris recognition accuracy is crucial to the future success of this technology as it is deployed in areas where the target population consists of clientele from a range of geographic backgrounds, such as border crossings and immigration check points.

  10. Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J Baker

    Full Text Available While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1 changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2 changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3 changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry, we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000-2007 and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011-2014. Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%-100% the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry, we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases that resulted entirely (100% from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

  11. Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Brian J.; Winston, Carla A.; Liu, Yecai; France, Anne Marie; Cain, Kevin P.

    2016-01-01

    While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1) changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2) changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3) changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry), we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases) beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000–2007) and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011–2014). Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%–100%) the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry), we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases) that resulted entirely (100%) from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control) as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

  12. Forensic performance of Investigator DIPplex indels genotyping kit in native, immigrant, and admixed populations in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefke, Gwynneth; Davison, Sean; D'Amato, Maria Eugenia

    2015-12-01

    The utilization of binary markers in human individual identification is gaining ground in forensic genetics. We analyzed the polymorphisms from the first commercial indel kit Investigator DIPplex (Qiagen) in 512 individuals from Afrikaner, Indian, admixed Cape Colored, and the native Bantu Xhosa and Zulu origin in South Africa and evaluated forensic and population genetics parameters for their forensic application in South Africa. The levels of genetic diversity in population and forensic parameters in South Africa are similar to other published data, with lower diversity values for the native Bantu. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations were observed in HLD97 in Indians, Admixed and Bantus, along with 6.83% null homozygotes in the Bantu populations. Sequencing of the flanking regions showed a previously reported transition G>A in rs17245568. Strong population structure was detected with Fst, AMOVA, and the Bayesian unsupervised clustering method in STRUCTURE. Therefore we evaluated the efficiency of individual assignments to population groups using the ancestral membership proportions from STRUCTURE and the Bayesian classification algorithm in Snipper App Suite. Both methods showed low cross-assignment error (0-4%) between Bantus and either Afrikaners or Indians. The differentiation between populations seems to be driven by four loci under positive selection pressure. Based on these results, we draw recommendations for the application of this kit in SA. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. The Box Turtle: Room with a View on Species Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belzer, Bill; Steisslinger, Mary Beth

    1999-01-01

    Surveys salient aspects of eastern box-turtle natural history. Explores the societal and ecological factors that have contributed to the decline of the box-turtle population. Contains 18 references. (WRM)

  14. Poison blamed for decline of Spain's majestic Black Vultures

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2007-03-01

    catastrophic” decline in numbers because of illegal poisoning by hunters. The use of poisoned bait to kill foxes, badgers, wild dogs, feral cats and smaller birds of prey has reduced the population by almost a half in the past decade,.

  15. Immunization in special populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Michael A; Rathore, Mobeen H

    2012-01-01

    In summary, immunizations in special populations require understanding the underlying disease and how it might affect the immune system's ability to mount an antibody response to vaccines or predispose certain patient populations to developing certain serious infections. There is still a great need for research on the optimal timing of vaccines after transplants, how to assess protection and development of a protective antibody response after immunization, and whether certain groups (eg, HIV) need to be revaccinated after a certain amount of time if their antibody levels decline. In addition, there are limited data on efficacy of the newer vaccines in these special patient populations, which also requires further investigation.

  16. Farmer's lung is now in decline.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Arya, A

    2012-02-03

    Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

  17. Oral hygiene management of autistic population -an investigation of their tooth brushing-

    OpenAIRE

    田邊, 義浩; 石倉, 優香; 野田, 忠; Tanabe, Yoshihiro; Ishikura, Yuuka; Noda, Tadashi

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to know the factors influencing on tooth brushing of autistic population. The subjects were 17 utistic patients who commuted to a welfare institution in Niigata city, aged from 16 to 27 years old. The parents of the subjects were asked to answer a questionnaire about the way of tooth brushing in their family life. The subjects were tested for their understanding about the mean of tooth brushing by some series of picture cards of oral health, tooth brushing and de...

  18. Does Stroke Contribute to Racial Differences in Cognitive Decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Deborah A.; Kabeto, Mohammed; Langa, Kenneth M.; Lisabeth, Lynda D.; Rogers, Mary A.M.; Galecki, Andrzej T.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose It is unknown whether blacks’ elevated risk of dementia is because of racial differences in acute stroke, the impact of stroke on cognitive health, or other factors. We investigated whether racial differences in cognitive decline are explained by differences in the frequency or impact of incident stroke between blacks and whites, controlling for baseline cognition. Methods Among 4908 black and white participants aged ≥65 years free of stroke and cognitive impairment in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study with linked Medicare data (1998–2010), we examined longitudinal changes in global cognition (modified version of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status) by race, before and after adjusting for time-dependent incident stroke followed by a race-by-incident stroke interaction term, using linear mixed-effects models that included fixed effects of participant demographics, clinical factors, and cognition, and random effects for intercept and slope for time. Results We identified 34 of 453 (7.5%) blacks and 300 of 4455 (6.7%) whites with incident stroke over a mean (SD) of 4.1 (1.9) years of follow-up (P=0.53). Blacks had greater cognitive decline than whites (adjusted difference in modified version of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status score, 1.47 points; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.73 points). With further adjustment for cumulative incidence of stroke, the black–white difference in cognitive decline persisted. Incident stroke was associated with a decrease in global cognition (1.21 points; Pstroke on cognition did not statistically differ by race (P=0.52). Conclusions In this population-based cohort of older adults, incident stroke did not explain black–white differences in cognitive decline or impact cognition differently by race. PMID:25999389

  19. Investigating the validity of the DN4 in a consecutive population of patients with chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Timmerman

    Full Text Available Neuropathic pain is clinically described as pain caused by a lesion or disease of the somatosensory nervous system. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the Dutch version of the DN4, in a cross-sectional multicentre design, as a screening tool for detecting a neuropathic pain component in a large consecutive, not pre-stratified on basis of the target outcome, population of patients with chronic pain. Patients' pain was classified by two independent (pain-physicians as the gold standard. The analysis was initially performed on the outcomes of those patients (n = 228 out of 291 in whom both physicians agreed in their pain classification. Compared to the gold standard the DN4 had a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 76%. The DN4-symptoms (seven interview items solely resulted in a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 67%. For the DN4-signs (three examination items it was respectively 75% and 75%. In conclusion, because it seems that the DN4 helps to identify a neuropathic pain component in a consecutive population of patients with chronic pain in a moderate way, a comprehensive (physical- examination by the physician is still obligate.

  20. Mobility decline in old age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

  1. IQ as moderator of terminal decline in perceptual and motor speed, spatial, and verbal ability: Testing the cognitive reserve hypothesis in a population-based sample followed from age 70 until death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorvaldsson, Valgeir; Skoog, Ingmar; Johansson, Boo

    2017-03-01

    Terminal decline (TD) refers to acceleration in within-person cognitive decline prior to death. The cognitive reserve hypothesis postulates that individuals with higher IQ are able to better tolerate age-related increase in brain pathologies. On average, they will exhibit a later onset of TD, but once they start to decline, their trajectory is steeper relative to those with lower IQ. We tested these predictions using data from initially nondemented individuals (n = 179) in the H70-study repeatedly measured at ages 70, 75, 79, 81, 85, 88, 90, 92, 95, 97, 99, and 100, or until death, on cognitive tests of perceptual-and-motor-speed and spatial and verbal ability. We quantified IQ using the Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (RCPM) test administrated at age 70. We fitted random change point TD models to the data, within a Bayesian framework, conditioned on IQ, age of death, education, and sex. In line with predictions, we found that 1 additional standard deviation on the IQ scale was associated with a delay in onset of TD by 1.87 (95% highest density interval [HDI; 0.20, 4.08]) years on speed, 1.96 (95% HDI [0.15, 3.54]) years on verbal ability, but only 0.88 (95% HDI [-0.93, 3.49]) year on spatial ability. Higher IQ was associated with steeper rate of decline within the TD phase on measures of speed and verbal ability, whereas results on spatial ability were nonconclusive. Our findings provide partial support for the cognitive reserve hypothesis and demonstrate that IQ can be a significant moderator of cognitive change trajectories in old age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. HOW TO DESIGN NUTRITIONAL INTERVENTION TRIALS TO SLOW COGNITIVE DECLINE IN APPARENTLY HEALTHY POPULATIONS AND APPLY FOR EFFICACY CLAIMS: A STATEMENT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL ACADEMY ON NUTRITION AND AGING TASK FORCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, M.; Coley, N.; Andrieu, S.; Bonhomme, C.; Caubere, J.P.; Cesari, M.; Gautry, J.; Garcia Sanchez, I.; Hugonot, L.; Mansuy, L.; Pahor, M.; Pariente, J.; Ritz, P.; Salva, A.; Sijben, J.; Wieggers, R.; Ythier-Moury, P.; Zaim, M.; Zetlaoui, J.; Vellas, B.

    2015-01-01

    Interventions are crucial as they offer simple and inexpensive public health solutions that will be useful over the long term use. A Task Force on designing trials of nutritional interventions to slow cognitive decline in older adults was held in Toulouse in September 2012. The aim of the Task Force was to bring together leading experts from academia, the food industry and regulatory agencies to determine the best trial designs that would enable us to reach our goal of maintaining or improving cognitive function in apparently healthy aging people. An associated challenge for this Task Force was to determine the type of trials required by the Public Food Agencies for assessing the impact of nutritional compounds in comparison to well established requirements for drug trials. Although the required quality of the study design, rationale and statistical analysis remains the same, the studies designed to show reduction of cognitive decline require a long duration and the objectives of this task force was to determine best design for these trials. Two specific needs were identified to support trials of nutritional interventions: 1- Risk- reduction strategies are needed to tackle the growing burden of cognitive decline that may lead to dementia, 2- Innovative study designs are needed to improve the quality of these studies. PMID:23933873

  3. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC): study populations and data collection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riboli, E.; Hunt, K.J.; Slimani, N.

    2002-01-01

    The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) is an ongoing multi-centre prospective cohort study designed to investigate the relationship between nutrition and cancer, with the potential for studying other diseases as well. The study currently includes 519 978 participa......The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) is an ongoing multi-centre prospective cohort study designed to investigate the relationship between nutrition and cancer, with the potential for studying other diseases as well. The study currently includes 519 978...... was collected through a non-dietary questionnaire on lifestyle variables and through a dietary questionnaire addressing usual diet. Anthropometric measurements were performed and blood samples taken, from which plasma, serum, red cells and buffy coat fractions were separated and aliquoted for long-term storage......, mostly in liquid nitrogen. To calibrate dietary measurements, a standardised, computer-assisted 24-hour dietary recall was implemented at each centre on stratified random samples of the participants, for a total of 36 900 subjects. EPIC represents the largest single resource available today world...

  4. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study: rationale, design and population characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slimani, N.; Kaaks, R.; Ferrari, P.; Casagrande, C.; Clavel-Chapelon, F.; Lotze, G.; Kroke, A.; Trichopoulos, D.; Trichopoulou, A.; Lauria, C.; Bellegotti, M.; Ocké, M.C.; Peeters, P.H.M.; Engeset, D.; Lund, E.; Agudo, A.; Larranaga, N.; Mattisson, I.; Andren, C.; Johansson, I.; Davey, G.; Welch, A.A.; Overvad, K.; Tjonneland, A.; Staveren, van W.A.; Saracci, R.; Riboli, E.

    2002-01-01

    The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which covers a large cohort of half a million men and women from 23 European centres in 10 Western European countries, was designed to study the relationship between diet and the risk of chronic diseases, particularly cancer.

  5. Roles of Arterial Stiffness and Blood Pressure in Hypertension-Associated Cognitive Decline in Healthy Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajjar, Ihab; Goldstein, Felicia C; Martin, Greg S; Quyyumi, Arshed A

    2016-01-01

    Although there is strong evidence that hypertension leads to cognitive decline, especially in the executive domain, the relationship between blood pressure and cognition has been conflicted. Hypertension is characterized by blood pressure elevation and increased arterial stiffness. We aimed at investigating whether arterial stiffness would be superior to blood pressure in predicting cognitive decline and explaining the hypertension-executive decline association. A randomly selected asymptomatic population (n=591, age=49.2 years, 70% women, 27% black, and education=18 years) underwent annual vascular and cognitive assessments. Cognition was assessed using computerized versions commonly used cognitive tests, and principal component analysis was used for deriving cognitive scores for executive function, memory, and working memory. Arterial stiffness was measured by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV). Higher PWV, but not blood pressure, was associated with a steeper decline in executive (P=0.0002), memory (P=0.05), and working memory (P=0.02) scores after adjusting for demographics, education, and baseline cognitive performance. This remained true after adjusting for hypertension. Hypertension was associated with greater decline in executive score (P=0.0029) and those with combined hypertension and elevated PWV (>7 m/s) had the greatest decline in executive score (P value hypertension×PWV=0.02). PWV explained the association between hypertension and executive function (P value for hypertension=0.0029 versus 0.24 when adjusting for PWV). In healthy adults, increased arterial stiffness is superior to blood pressure in predicting cognitive decline in all domains and in explaining the hypertension-executive function association. Arterial stiffness, especially in hypertension, may be a target in the prevention of cognitive decline. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Genetic Investigations Using Immuno-biochemical Markers in a Maramureş Brown Cattle Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Isfan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of the genetic markers and identifying new markers involves an increasing number of research projects in the fields of genetics of immunology, biochemical genetics, molecular genetics, quantity genetics and the genetic improvement of animals. Some studies on genes frequency determining the red cells specificity and for whey hemoglobin are approached in the present report. In this way, some blood factors, most of them belonging to B system (the most complex system in cattle have been evidenced. The lowest gene frequency was present in K factor (7%, and highest one in, O1, G’ , W and F1 (100%. In addition to basic importance on knowledge and determination of cattle population genetic structure for studied protein loci, another theme proposed to correlate hemoglobin type with some traits of economical importance: milk yield, fat and protein content, fat and protein yield. Higher performance was recorded by HbA/HbA individuals.

  7. Is daily routine important for sleep? An investigation of social rhythms in a clinical insomnia population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, Taryn G; Carney, Colleen E; Haynes, Patricia; Harris, Andrea L

    2015-02-01

    Social rhythms, also known as daily routines (e.g. exercise, of school or work, recreation, social activities), have been identified as potential time cues to help to regulate the biological clock. Past research has shown links between regularity and healthy sleep. This study examined the regularity and frequency of daytime activities in a clinical insomnia population and a good sleeper comparison group. Participants (N = 69) prospectively monitored their sleep and daily activities for a 2-week period. Although participants with insomnia and good sleepers had similar levels of activity, relative to good sleepers, those with insomnia were less regular in their activities. Findings from this study add to the growing number of studies that highlight the relative importance of the regularity of daytime activities on sleep. Accordingly, future research should test treatment components that focus on regulating daytime activities, which would likely improve treatment outcomes.

  8. An investigation on the population structure of mixed infections of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Inner Mongolia, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoying; Liu, Haican; Wei, Jianhao; Wu, Xiaocui; Yu, Qin; Zhao, Xiuqin; Lyu, Jianxin; Lou, Yongliang; Wan, Kanglin

    2015-12-01

    Mixed infections of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains have attracted more attention due to their increasing frequencies worldwide, especially in the areas of high tuberculosis (TB) prevalence. In this study, we accessed the rates of mixed infections in a setting with high TB prevalence in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. A total of 384 M. tuberculosis isolates from the local TB hospital were subjected to mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing method. The single clones of the strains with mixed infections were separated by subculturing them on the Löwenstein-Jensen medium. Of these 384 isolates, twelve strains (3.13%) were identified as mixed infections by MIRU-VNTR. Statistical analysis indicated that demographic characteristics and drug susceptibility profiles showed no statistically significant association with the mixed infections. We further subcultured the mixed infection strains and selected 30 clones from the subculture for each mixed infection. Genotyping data revealed that eight (8/12, 66.7%) strains with mixed infections had converted into single infection through subculture. The higher growth rate was associated with the increasing proportion of variant subpopulation through subculture. In conclusion, by using the MIRU-VNTR method, we demonstrate that the prevalence of mixed infections in Inner Mongolia is low. Additionally, our findings reveal that the subculture changes the population structures of mixed infections, and the subpopulation with higher growth rate show better fitness, which is associated with high proportion among the population structure after subculture. This study highlights that the use of clinical specimens, rather than subcultured isolates, is preferred to estimate the prevalence of mixed infections in the specific regions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Population structure and genetic diversity in a rice core collection (Oryza sativa L. investigated with SSR markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zhang

    Full Text Available The assessment of genetic diversity and population structure of a core collection would benefit to make use of these germplasm as well as applying them in association mapping. The objective of this study were to (1 examine the population structure of a rice core collection; (2 investigate the genetic diversity within and among subgroups of the rice core collection; (3 identify the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD of the rice core collection. A rice core collection consisting of 150 varieties which was established from 2260 varieties of Ting's collection of rice germplasm were genotyped with 274 SSR markers and used in this study. Two distinct subgroups (i.e. SG 1 and SG 2 were detected within the entire population by different statistical methods, which is in accordance with the differentiation of indica and japonica rice. MCLUST analysis might be an alternative method to STRUCTURE for population structure analysis. A percentage of 26% of the total markers could detect the population structure as the whole SSR marker set did with similar precision. Gene diversity and MRD between the two subspecies varied considerably across the genome, which might be used to identify candidate genes for the traits under domestication and artificial selection of indica and japonica rice. The percentage of SSR loci pairs in significant (P<0.05 LD is 46.8% in the entire population and the ratio of linked to unlinked loci pairs in LD is 1.06. Across the entire population as well as the subgroups and sub-subgroups, LD decays with genetic distance, indicating that linkage is one main cause of LD. The results of this study would provide valuable information for association mapping using the rice core collection in future.

  10. Population structure and genetic diversity in a rice core collection (Oryza sativa L.) investigated with SSR markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peng; Li, Jinquan; Li, Xiaoling; Liu, Xiangdong; Zhao, Xingjuan; Lu, Yonggen

    2011-01-01

    The assessment of genetic diversity and population structure of a core collection would benefit to make use of these germplasm as well as applying them in association mapping. The objective of this study were to (1) examine the population structure of a rice core collection; (2) investigate the genetic diversity within and among subgroups of the rice core collection; (3) identify the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) of the rice core collection. A rice core collection consisting of 150 varieties which was established from 2260 varieties of Ting's collection of rice germplasm were genotyped with 274 SSR markers and used in this study. Two distinct subgroups (i.e. SG 1 and SG 2) were detected within the entire population by different statistical methods, which is in accordance with the differentiation of indica and japonica rice. MCLUST analysis might be an alternative method to STRUCTURE for population structure analysis. A percentage of 26% of the total markers could detect the population structure as the whole SSR marker set did with similar precision. Gene diversity and MRD between the two subspecies varied considerably across the genome, which might be used to identify candidate genes for the traits under domestication and artificial selection of indica and japonica rice. The percentage of SSR loci pairs in significant (P<0.05) LD is 46.8% in the entire population and the ratio of linked to unlinked loci pairs in LD is 1.06. Across the entire population as well as the subgroups and sub-subgroups, LD decays with genetic distance, indicating that linkage is one main cause of LD. The results of this study would provide valuable information for association mapping using the rice core collection in future.

  11. Prospect-EPIC Utrecht: study design and characteristics of the cohort population. European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boker, L K; van Noord, P A; van der Schouw, Y T; Koot, N V; Bueno de Mesquita, H B; Riboli, E; Grobbee, D E; Peeters, P H

    2001-01-01

    The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), which has been established in order to investigate the relations between nutrition and cancer, was initiated in 1990 and involves 10 European countries with heterogeneous dietary patterns and differing cancer incidence rates. This manuscript presents the design, recruitment and baseline characteristics of the Prospect-EPIC cohort co-ordinated in Utrecht, The Netherlands. The cohort is based on volunteers recruited among women participating in a regional breast cancer screening program. It comprises of 17,357 subjects aged 50-69 years at enrolment from Utrecht and vicinity, who have consented to participate in the study and its follow-up. Each participant filled out a general questionnaire and a food frequency questionnaire. Participants were also physically examined and have donated a blood sample. Participation rate was 34.5%. Blood samples were donated by most participants (97.5%) and detailed informed consents were obtained from 87.4% of participants. Mean age at enrolment was 57 years. Anthropometric, lifestyle and morbidity characteristics of the cohort population did not differ largely from those of similar study populations in The Netherlands. Based on the Prospect-EPIC population, we intend to conduct prospective total cohort, nested case-control or case-cohort studies, in order to investigate relations between consumption of certain food groups or nutrients and chronic diseases, including hormone dependant cancers such as breast, colon, endometrial and ovary cancers.

  12. Non-thermal electron populations in microwave heated plasmas investigated with X-ray detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belapure, Jaydeep Sanjay

    2013-04-15

    An investigation of the generation and dynamics of superthermal electrons in fusion plasma is carried out. A SDD+CsI(Tl) based X-ray diagnostic is constructed, characterized and installed at ASDEX Upgrade. In various plasma heating power and densities, the fraction and the energy distribution of the superthermal electrons is obtained by a bi-Maxwellian model and compared with Fokker-Planck simulations.

  13. STABILITY OF SMOKING STATUS IN THE U.S. POPULATION: A LONGITUDINAL INVESTIGATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, Andrea H.; Pilver, Corey E.; Mazure, Carolyn M.; McKee, Sherry A.

    2014-01-01

    Aims To determine smoking transitions in a representative sample of United States (U.S.) adults. Design Longitudinal study using data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (Wave 1, 2001–2002; Wave 2, 2004–2005). Setting The general U.S. adult population. Participants 33,309 adults (54% female) classified as Wave 1 Current Daily, Current Non-Daily, Former Daily, Former Non-Daily, or Never Smokers. Measurements Smoking transitions were determined from Wave 1 and Wave 2 data. Findings Smoking status remained stable for the majority of current daily (79.8%), former daily (95.8%), former non-daily (96.3%), and never (97.1%) smokers. Among current non-daily smokers, 54.5% quit smoking while 22.5% increased to daily smoking. Current daily smokers who were older (30–44, OR=0.62; 95% CI=0.49–0.87; 45+, OR=0.75; 95% CI=0.61–0.93) and unmarried (OR=0.80, 95% CI=0.66–0.96) were less likely to report smoking cessation. Current daily smokers who were Hispanic (OR=2.15, 95% CI=1.65–2.81) and college educated (OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.05–1.53) were more likely to report smoking cessation. Relapse in former daily smokers was greater in women (OR=1.44, 95% CI=0.27–0.74) and lower in older adults (OR=0.44; 95% CI=0.27–0.74). Smoking initiation occurred less in women (OR=0.65; 95% CI=0.49–0.87) and Hispanic adults (OR=0.57; 95% CI=0.36–0.91) and more in unmarried adults (OR=1.84; 95% CI=1.09–2.44) and adults with less education (OR=1.63; 95% CI=1.09–2.44). Conclusions From 2001 to 2005, smoking status was extremely stable in the United States population. Specific gender, race, and educational groups need increased prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:24916157

  14. Over the Hill at 24: Persistent Age-Related Cognitive-Motor Decline in Reaction Times in an Ecologically Valid Video Game Task Begins in Early Adulthood

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, Joseph J.; Blair, Mark R.; Henrey, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    Typically studies of the effects of aging on cognitive-motor performance emphasize changes in elderly populations. Although some research is directly concerned with when age-related decline actually begins, studies are often based on relatively simple reaction time tasks, making it impossible to gauge the impact of experience in compensating for this decline in a real world task. The present study investigates age-related changes in cognitive motor performance through adolescence and adulthoo...

  15. Epidemiologic investigation of tuberculosis in a Mexican population from Chihuahua State, Mexico: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chittoor, Geetha; Arya, Rector; Farook, Vidya S; David, Randy; Puppala, Sobha; Resendez, Roy G; Rivera-Chavira, Blanca E; Leal-Berumen, Irene; Zenteno-Cuevas, Roberto; López-Alvarenga, Juan Carlos; Bastarrachea, Raul A; Curran, Joanne E; Dhandayuthapani, Subramanian; Gonzalez, Lupe; Blangero, John; Crawford, Michael H; Vlasich, Esteban M; Escobedo, Luis G; Duggirala, Ravindranath

    2013-12-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) and its co-morbid conditions have become a burden on global health economies. It is well understood that susceptibility of the host to TB infection/disease is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. The aims of this pilot case-control study are to characterize the sociodemographic and environmental factors related to active TB disease (TB/case) and latent TB infection (LTBI/control) status, and to identify risk factors associated with progression from LTBI to TB. We recruited 75 cases with TB (mean age=46.3y; females=41%) and 75 controls with LTBI (mean age=39.0y; females=37%), from the Mestizo population of Cuidad Juárez, Mexico. In addition to the determination of case/control status, information on environmental variables was collected (e.g., socioeconomic status, smoking, alcohol consumption, substance abuse, nutritional status, household demographics, medical histories and presence of type 2 diabetes [T2DM]). The data were analyzed to identify the environmental correlates of TB and LTBI using univariate and multivariate statistical approaches. Following multivariate logistic regression analysis, TB was associated with poor nutrition, T2DM, family history of TB, and non-Chihuahua state of birth. These preliminary findings have relevance to TB control at the Mexico-United States border, and contribute to our future genetic study of TB in Mexicans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Investigating population differentiation in a major African agricultural pest: evidence from geometric morphometrics and connectivity suggests high invasion potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsten, M; Addison, P; Jansen van Vuuren, B; Terblanche, J S

    2016-07-01

    The distribution, spatial pattern and population dynamics of a species can be influenced by differences in the environment across its range. Spatial variation in climatic conditions can cause local populations to undergo disruptive selection and ultimately result in local adaptation. However, local adaptation can be constrained by gene flow and may favour resident individuals over migrants-both are factors critical to the assessment of invasion potential. The Natal fruit fly (Ceratitis rosa) is a major agricultural pest in Africa with a history of island invasions, although its range is largely restricted to south east Africa. Across Africa, C. rosa is genetically structured into two clusters (R1 and R2), with these clusters occurring sympatrically in the north of South Africa. The spatial distribution of these genotypic clusters remains unexamined despite their importance for understanding the pest's invasion potential. Here, C. rosa, sampled from 22 South African locations, were genotyped at 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci and assessed morphologically using geometric morphometric wing shape analyses to investigate patterns of population structure and determine connectedness of pest-occupied sites. Our results show little to no intraspecific (population) differentiation, high population connectivity, high effective population sizes and only one morphological type (R2) within South Africa. The absence of the R1 morphotype at sites where it was previously found may be a consequence of differences in thermal niches of the two morphotypes. Overall, our results suggest high invasion potential of this species, that area-wide pest management should be undertaken on a country-wide scale, and that border control is critical to preventing further invasions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Vulnerable Populations, Social Investigations, and Epistemic Justice in Early Victorian Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oz Frankel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Conducted by royal commissions, select committees and the newly established inspectorates, early Victorian social investigations elaborated formats and procedures of public inquiry that left an enduring impact on modern, liberal public spheres in the English speaking world and beyond. This article revisits a few features of 19th Century official investigations, highlighting the rather diverse and contradictory effects these fact-seeking ventures had on British democratic culture. I argue that even as government inquiries confirmed and strengthen social gradations as well as hierarchies of knowledge and expertise, they nevertheless allowed the British lower classes to participate in official discourse as knowers, not just sufferers, and opened new possibilities for dissent and contestations. I highlight the manner in which the investigation itself rather than any consequent legislation or policy touched upon the administration of justice either by emulating court procedures or in terms of its epistemic labor.Las investigaciones sociales de principio de la época victoriana dirigidas por comisiones reales, comités selectos y las inspecciones que se estaban creando entonces, elaboraron formatos y procedimientos de investigación pública que dejaron un impacto duradero en las esferas públicas modernas y liberales tanto en el mundo angloparlante como fuera de él. Este artículo revisa algunas características de las investigaciones oficiales del siglo XIX, resaltando los efectos diversos y contradictorios que estas iniciativas de búsqueda de hechos tuvieron en la cultura democrática británica. Se defiende que, a pesar de que las investigaciones gubernamentales confirmaron y reforzaron las escalas sociales y las jerarquías de conocimiento y experiencia, permitieron que las clases bajas británicas participaran en el discurso oficial como conocedores y no sólo víctimas, y abrieron nuevas posibilidades de disensión y lucha. Se destaca la

  18. Investigation of the question of a danger to the population by fallout from the stratospheric depot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Sladkovic, R.; Poetzl, K.

    1975-01-01

    The self-developed evaluation programme modified for the present tasks - a programme to set up continuous isentropical trajectory analyses and to investigate the tropopause fine structure for the determination of the climatology of the intrusion of stratospheric (contaminated) air into the troposphere and its transport to a point of the earth's surface in the temperate latitudes, is fully efficient. It does not merely determine trivial cases with direct sinking from the lower stratoshere to the measuring station (pure adiabatic case), but cases of non-adiabatic mixture processes can also be described by using several trajectories corresponding with one another. The method of cross-section and longitudinal section analyses gives the data necessary for the description of the intrusion of stratospheric air through the tropopause with sufficient accuracy. Based on the knowledge obtained sofar, a scheme to predict stratospheric intrusions has been set up and experimentally applied. The very first results are already promising. (orig.) [de

  19. Cognitive decline affects diabetic women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perzyński Adam

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: DM provokes peripheral complications and changes in central nervous system. Central changes in the course of diabetes mellitus (DM include changes in brain tissue structure, electrophysiological abnormalities but also disturbances in neurotransmission leading to cognitive decline.

  20. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, K.B.; Musters, C.J.M.; Verkuil, Y.I.; Kentie, R.; Piersma, T.; De Snoo, G.; Verkuil, Y.I.

    2011-01-01

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  1. Cytogenetic investigation in a population living in the high background radiation area in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deqing, C.

    1980-04-01

    On the basis of the previous investigation, 24,000 metaphases of the lymphocytes of 120 inhabitants from Tongyou region, where the highest individual cummulative exposure per year of 372 mR in weighted average was recorded in the high background radiation area selected, have been analysed with the method recommended by WHO in 1973, in order to determine the extent of human chromosome aberrations induced by the high background radiation of various levels. The results show that the difference between the total number of chromosome breakages in the individuals living in the high background radiation area and that in the control area (0.32x10/sup -2/ and 0.27x10/sup -2/ per cell respectively) is not significant whereas that between the numbers of two-hite aberrations (mainly dicentric) in the same two groups (0.042x10/sup -2/ and 0.0048x10/sup -2/ per cell) is significant (X/sup 2/ = 6.1475, P<0.05). In addition, the normal value of the chromosome aberrations of human lymphocytes was analyzed.

  2. Declinations in the Almagest: accuracy, epoch, and observers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, John C.; Zimmer, Peter; Jones, Patricia B.

    2014-11-01

    Almagest declinations attributed to Timocharis, Aristyllos, Hipparchus, and Ptolemy are investigated through comparisons of the reported declinations with the declinations computed from modern positions translated to the earlier epochs. Consistent results indicate an observational accuracy of ≈ 0.1° and epochs of: Timocharis, c. 298 BC; Aristyllos, c. 256 BC, and Hipparchus, c. 128 BC.The ≈ 42-year difference between Aristyllos and Timocharis is confirmed to be statistically significant. The declinations attributed to Ptolemy were likely two distinct groups—observations taken c. AD 57 and observations taken c. AD 128. The later observations could have been taken by Ptolemy himself.

  3. Rate of pulmonary function decline in South African children with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) objectively measure the extent and progression of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The rate of lung function decline in developing countries has not previously been studied. Aim. To investigate the average annual rates of pulmonary function decline in South African children ...

  4. Did the Decline in Social Connections Depress Americans' Happiness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefano; Bilancini, Ennio; Pugno, Maurizio

    2013-01-01

    During the last 30 years US citizens experienced, on average, a decline in reported happiness, social connections, and confidence in institutions. We show that a remarkable portion of the decrease in happiness is predicted by the decline in social connections and confidence in institutions. We carry out our investigation in three steps. First, we…

  5. Factors contributing to declining enrolments at the University of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors contributing to declining enrolments at the University of Transkei. ... This study investigated factors which could explain the decline of student numbers at the University of Transkei. The findings indicated that ... Catering and hostel facilities were not major factors in the students' choice of the institution. South African ...

  6. Investigation of population structure in Gulf of Mexico Seepiophila jonesi (Polychaeta, Siboglinidae) using cross-amplified microsatellite loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chunya; Schaeffer, Stephen W; Fisher, Charles R; Cowart, Dominique A

    2016-01-01

    Vestimentiferan tubeworms are some of the most recognizable fauna found at deep-sea cold seeps, isolated environments where hydrocarbon rich fluids fuel biological communities. Several studies have investigated tubeworm population structure; however, much is still unknown about larval dispersal patterns at Gulf of Mexico (GoM) seeps. As such, researchers have applied microsatellite markers as a measure for documenting the transport of vestimentiferan individuals. In the present study, we investigate the utility of microsatellites to be cross-amplified within the escarpiid clade of seep vestimentiferans, by determining if loci originally developed for Escarpia spp. could be amplified in the GoM seep tubeworm, Seepiophila jonesi. Additionally, we determine if cross-amplified loci can reliably uncover the same signatures of high gene flow seen in a previous investigation of S. jonesi. Seventy-seven S. jonesi individuals were collected from eight seep sites across the upper Louisiana slope (lecithotrophic larvae by deep sea currents is sufficient to homogenize populations. These data are consistent with the high levels of gene flow seen in Escarpia spp., which advocates that differences in microhabitats of seep localities lead to variation in biogeography of separate species.

  7. [Acute schizophrenia concept and definition: investigation of a French psychiatrist population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baylé, F J; Misdrahi, D; Llorca, P M; Lançon, C; Olivier, V; Quintin, P; Azorin, J M

    2005-01-01

    For schizophrenic disorders, the clinical conception of "acute state" is widely used in clinical settings to assess the effectiveness of therapeutic programs as well as epidemiological studies. Schizophrenic-specific symptomatology modification, need for hospitalization, significant change in care, disturbances in social behavior or suicide attempts were all used to define acute schizophrenic state. The decision to hospitalize is frequently used to define acute state but refers to multiple factors such as mood disorder, suicide attempts, drug abuse or social and environmental problems. Indeed, several and distinct definitions in a criteria basis form are available but no one has reached consensus. Because recognition of acute schizophrenic state remains based on the subjective clinician's advice, epidemiological and therapeutic studies fail in validity and reliability. The aim of the study was to evaluate how a population of French psychiatrists define criteria and therapeutic targets of acute schizophrenic state in their clinical practice. Psychiatrists filled out a self administered interview. At the time the interview was given, clinicians were notified that they were participating in a clinical consensus survey about schizophrenia. Six major indicators for acute state definition based on the literature data were proposed: general schizophrenic symptomatology modification (depression, anxiety, agitation, impulsivity/aggressiveness), specific schizophrenic symptomatology modification (positive symptoms, negative symptoms, disorganization), need for hospitalization, significant change in care, disturbance in social behavior and lastly, suicidal behavior. Minimal duration (1.2 or 4 weeks) of general and specific schizophrenic symptomatology modification required to define acute state were evaluated. The booklet included the 30 PANSS symptoms listed with their definitions. Among this symptom list, clinicians were instructed to select the ten criteria which they

  8. An ancient Mediterranean melting pot: investigating the uniparental genetic structure and population history of sicily and southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarno, Stefania; Boattini, Alessio; Carta, Marilisa; Ferri, Gianmarco; Alù, Milena; Yao, Daniele Yang; Ciani, Graziella; Pettener, Davide; Luiselli, Donata

    2014-01-01

    Due to their strategic geographic location between three different continents, Sicily and Southern Italy have long represented a major Mediterranean crossroad where different peoples and cultures came together over time. However, its multi-layered history of migration pathways and cultural exchanges, has made the reconstruction of its genetic history and population structure extremely controversial and widely debated. To address this debate, we surveyed the genetic variability of 326 accurately selected individuals from 8 different provinces of Sicily and Southern Italy, through a comprehensive evaluation of both Y-chromosome and mtDNA genomes. The main goal was to investigate the structuring of maternal and paternal genetic pools within Sicily and Southern Italy, and to examine their degrees of interaction with other Mediterranean populations. Our findings show high levels of within-population variability, coupled with the lack of significant genetic sub-structures both within Sicily, as well as between Sicily and Southern Italy. When Sicilian and Southern Italian populations were contextualized within the Euro-Mediterranean genetic space, we observed different historical dynamics for maternal and paternal inheritances. Y-chromosome results highlight a significant genetic differentiation between the North-Western and South-Eastern part of the Mediterranean, the Italian Peninsula occupying an intermediate position therein. In particular, Sicily and Southern Italy reveal a shared paternal genetic background with the Balkan Peninsula and the time estimates of main Y-chromosome lineages signal paternal genetic traces of Neolithic and post-Neolithic migration events. On the contrary, despite showing some correspondence with its paternal counterpart, mtDNA reveals a substantially homogeneous genetic landscape, which may reflect older population events or different demographic dynamics between males and females. Overall, both uniparental genetic structures and TMRCA

  9. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

    2016-01-01

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  10. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-10

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  11. Citizen Science Program Shows Urban Areas Have Lower Occurrence of Frog Species, but Not Accelerated Declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Martin J; Scheele, Ben C; Ikin, Karen; Hoefer, Anke Maria; Beaty, R Matthew; Evans, Murray; Osborne, Will; Hunter, David; Rayner, Laura; Driscoll, Don A

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the influence of landscape change on animal populations is critical to inform biodiversity conservation efforts. A particularly important goal is to understand how urban density affects the persistence of animal populations through time, and how these impacts can be mediated by habitat provision; but data on this question are limited for some taxa. Here, we use data from a citizen science monitoring program to investigate the effect of urbanization on patterns of frog species richness and occurrence over 13 years. Sites surrounded by a high proportion of bare ground (a proxy for urbanization) had consistently lower frog occurrence, but we found no evidence that declines were restricted to urban areas. Instead, several frog species showed declines in rural wetlands with low-quality habitat. Our analysis shows that urban wetlands had low but stable species richness; but also that population trajectories are strongly influenced by vegetation provision in both the riparian zone and the wider landscape. Future increases in the extent of urban environments in our study area are likely to negatively impact populations of several frog species. However, existing urban areas are unlikely to lose further frog species in the medium term. We recommend that landscape planning and management focus on the conservation and restoration of rural wetlands to arrest current declines, and the revegetation of urban wetlands to facilitate the re-expansion of urban-sensitive species.

  12. Citizen Science Program Shows Urban Areas Have Lower Occurrence of Frog Species, but Not Accelerated Declines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin J Westgate

    Full Text Available Understanding the influence of landscape change on animal populations is critical to inform biodiversity conservation efforts. A particularly important goal is to understand how urban density affects the persistence of animal populations through time, and how these impacts can be mediated by habitat provision; but data on this question are limited for some taxa. Here, we use data from a citizen science monitoring program to investigate the effect of urbanization on patterns of frog species richness and occurrence over 13 years. Sites surrounded by a high proportion of bare ground (a proxy for urbanization had consistently lower frog occurrence, but we found no evidence that declines were restricted to urban areas. Instead, several frog species showed declines in rural wetlands with low-quality habitat. Our analysis shows that urban wetlands had low but stable species richness; but also that population trajectories are strongly influenced by vegetation provision in both the riparian zone and the wider landscape. Future increases in the extent of urban environments in our study area are likely to negatively impact populations of several frog species. However, existing urban areas are unlikely to lose further frog species in the medium term. We recommend that landscape planning and management focus on the conservation and restoration of rural wetlands to arrest current declines, and the revegetation of urban wetlands to facilitate the re-expansion of urban-sensitive species.

  13. Impaired Sleep Predicts Cognitive Decline in Old People: Findings from the Prospective KORA Age Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johar, Hamimatunnisa; Kawan, Rasmila; Emeny, Rebecca Thwing; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: To investigate the association between sleep-related characteristics and cognitive change over 3 years of follow up in an aged population. Methods: Sleep characteristics and covariates were assessed at baseline in a standardized interview and clinical examination of the population-based KORA Age Study (n = 740, mean age = 75 years). Cognitive score (determined by telephone interview for cognitive status, TICS-m) was recorded at baseline and 3 years later. Results: At baseline, 82.83% (n = 613) of participants had normal cognitive status, 13.51% (n = 100) were classified with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 3.64% (n = 27) with probable dementia. The effect of three distinct patterns of poor sleep (difficulties initiating [DIS] or maintaining sleep [DMS], daytime sleepiness [DS] or sleep duration) were considered on a change in cognitive score with adjustments for potential confounders in generalized linear regression models. Cognitive decline was more pronounced in individuals with DMS compared to those with no DMS (β = 1.33, 95% CI = 0.41–2.24, P sleep duration increased the risk for cognitive decline in cognitively impaired elderly (β = 1.86, 95% CI = 0.15–3.57, P = 0.03). Other sleep characteristics (DIS and DS) were not significantly associated with cognitive decline. Conclusions: DMS and long sleep duration were associated with cognitive decline in normal and cognitively impaired elderly, respectively. The identification of impaired sleep quality may offer intervention strategies to deter cognitive decline in the elderly with normal cognitive function. Citation: Johar H, Kawan R, Emeny RT, Ladwig KH. Impaired sleep predicts cognitive decline in old people: findings from the prospective KORA age study. SLEEP 2016;39(1):217–226. PMID:26414903

  14. Party decline and response: the effects of membership decline on party organisations in Western Europe, 1960-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kölln, Ann-Kristin

    2014-01-01

    How do parties respond to party decline? Political parties have been facing increasing citizen apathy in the last decades. It is exemplified in declining citizen trust in parties and fewer citizens that identify with or enrol in a party. This study investigates how party organisations in Western

  15. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Malick

    Full Text Available Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha and chum (O. keta salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA and British Columbia (BC with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65% did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks. We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time.

  16. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  17. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J; Cox, Sean P

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time.

  18. Kalahari vulture declines, through the eyes of meerkats | Thorley ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, we highlight a medium-term decline in the African White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus population inhabiting the southern Kalahari, South Africa, using a long-term behavioural data set collected from a habituated population of meerkats Suricata suricatta. Meerkats emit an alarm call on sighting airborne ...

  19. Haematological malignancies in childhood in Croatia: Investigating the theories of depleted uranium, chemical plant damage and 'population mixing'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labar, B.; Rudan, I.; Ivankovic, D.; Biloglav, Z.; Mrsic, M.; Strnad, M.; Fucic, A.; Znaor, A.; Bradic, T.; Campbell, H.

    2004-01-01

    Some of potential causes proposed to explain the reported increase of haematological malignancies in childhood during or after the war period in several countries include depleted uranium, chemical pollution and population mixing theory. The aim of this study was to define the population of Croatian children aged 0-14 years who were potentially exposed to each of those risks during the war and to investigate any possible association between the exposure and the incidence of haematological malignancies. The authors analyzed the data reported by the Cancer Registry of Croatia during the pre-war period (1986-1990), war period (1991-1995) and post-war period (1996-1999). In the group of 10 counties potentially exposed to depleted uranium and two counties where chemical war damage occurred, no significant difference in incidence of the studied haematological malignancies was noted in comparison to pre-war period. The incidence of lymphatic leukaemia significantly increased in four counties where population mixing had occurred during the war period, supporting the 'mixing theory'. In those counties, the incidence of Hodgkin's lymphoma decreased during and after the war. In Croatia as a whole, decreases in incidence of myeloid leukaemias during war and non-Hodgkin lymphoma after the war were noted

  20. Investigating the potential of an autodissemination system for managing populations of vine weevil, Otiorhynchus sulcatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) with entomopathogenic fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Tom W; Hough, Gemma; Arbona, Charlotte; Roberts, Harriet; Bennison, Jude; Buxton, John; Prince, Gill; Chandler, Dave

    2018-04-12

    Vine weevil, also known as black vine weevil, (Otiorhynchus sulcatus) is an economically important pest affecting soft fruit and nursery stock in temperate regions. We used laboratory and polytunnel experiments to investigate a novel control system based on autodissemination of spores of an entomopathogenic fungus to populations of adult vine weevils. The fungus was applied as a conidial powder, used on its own or formulated with talc, to a simple plastic refuge for vine weevils. The potential for adult weevils to disseminate the fungus was investigated first in polytunnel experiments using fluorescent powders applied to the refuge in lieu of fungal conidia. In this system, 88% of adult weevils came in contact with the powder within 48 hours. When the powder was applied to five adult weevils that were then placed within a population of 35 potential recipients, it was transmitted on average to 75% of the recipient population within 7 days. Three isolates of entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana isolate codes 433.99 and 1749.11 and Metarhizium brunneum isolate code 275.86), selected from a laboratory virulence screen. These three isolates were then investigated for efficacy when applied as conidial powders in artificial refuges placed among populations of adult weevils held in experimental boxes in the laboratory at 20°C. Under this regime, the fungal isolates caused 70 - 90% mortality of adult weevils over 28 days. A final polytunnel experiment tested the efficacy of conidial powders of M. brunneum 275.86 placed in artificial refuges to increase vine weevil mortality. Overall weevil mortality was relatively low (26-41%) but was significantly higher in cages in which the conidial powders were placed in refuge traps than in cages with control traps. The lower weevil mortality recorded in the polytunnel experiment compared to the laboratory test was most likely a consequence of the greater amounts of inoculum required to kill adult weevils when conditions

  1. Investigation of excited states populations density of Hall thruster plasma in three dimensions by laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivoruchko, D. D.; Skrylev, A. V.

    2018-01-01

    The article deals with investigation of the excited states populations distribution of a low-temperature xenon plasma in the thruster with closed electron drift at 300 W operating conditions were investigated by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) over the 350–1100 nm range. Seven xenon ions (Xe II) transitions were analyzed, while for neutral atoms (Xe I) just three transitions were explored, since the majority of Xe I emission falls into the ultraviolet or infrared part of the spectrum and are difficult to measure. The necessary spontaneous emission probabilities (Einstein coefficients) were calculated. Measurements of the excited state distribution were made for points (volume of about 12 mm3) all over the plane perpendicular to thruster axis in four positions on it (5, 10, 50 and 100 mm). Measured LIF signal intensity have differences for each location of researched point (due to anisotropy of thruster plume), however the structure of states populations distribution persisted at plume and is violated at the thruster exit plane and cathode area. Measured distributions show that for describing plasma of Hall thruster one needs to use a multilevel kinetic model, classic model can be used just for far plume region or for specific electron transitions.

  2. Conflict bear translocation: investigating population genetics and fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park, Jammu and Kashmir, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukesh; Sharma, Lalit Kumar; Charoo, Samina Amin; Sathyakumar, Sambandam

    2015-01-01

    The Asiatic black bear population in Dachigam landscape, Jammu and Kashmir is well recognized as one of the highest density bear populations in India. Increasing incidences of bear-human interactions and the resultant retaliatory killings by locals have become a serious threat to the survivorship of black bears in the Dachigam landscape. The Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu and Kashmir has been translocating bears involved in conflicts, henceforth 'conflict bears' from different sites in Dachigam landscape to Dachigam National Park as a flagship activity to mitigate conflicts. We undertook this study to investigate the population genetics and the fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park. We identified 109 unique genotypes in an area of ca. 650 km2 and observed bear population under panmixia that showed sound genetic variability. Molecular tracking of translocated bears revealed that mostly bears (7 out of 11 bears) returned to their capture sites, possibly due to homing instincts or habituation to the high quality food available in agricultural croplands and orchards, while only four bears remained in Dachigam National Park after translocation. Results indicated that translocation success was most likely to be season dependent as bears translocated during spring and late autumn returned to their capture sites, perhaps due to the scarcity of food inside Dachigam National Park while bears translocated in summer remained in Dachigam National Park due to availability of surplus food resources. Thus, the current management practices of translocating conflict bears, without taking into account spatio-temporal variability of food resources in Dachigam landscape seemed to be ineffective in mitigating conflicts on a long-term basis. However, the study highlighted the importance of molecular tracking of bears to understand their movement patterns and socio-biology in tough terrains like Dachigam landscape.

  3. Conflict bear translocation: investigating population genetics and fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park, Jammu and Kashmir, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukesh

    Full Text Available The Asiatic black bear population in Dachigam landscape, Jammu and Kashmir is well recognized as one of the highest density bear populations in India. Increasing incidences of bear-human interactions and the resultant retaliatory killings by locals have become a serious threat to the survivorship of black bears in the Dachigam landscape. The Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu and Kashmir has been translocating bears involved in conflicts, henceforth 'conflict bears' from different sites in Dachigam landscape to Dachigam National Park as a flagship activity to mitigate conflicts. We undertook this study to investigate the population genetics and the fate of bear translocation in Dachigam National Park. We identified 109 unique genotypes in an area of ca. 650 km2 and observed bear population under panmixia that showed sound genetic variability. Molecular tracking of translocated bears revealed that mostly bears (7 out of 11 bears returned to their capture sites, possibly due to homing instincts or habituation to the high quality food available in agricultural croplands and orchards, while only four bears remained in Dachigam National Park after translocation. Results indicated that translocation success was most likely to be season dependent as bears translocated during spring and late autumn returned to their capture sites, perhaps due to the scarcity of food inside Dachigam National Park while bears translocated in summer remained in Dachigam National Park due to availability of surplus food resources. Thus, the current management practices of translocating conflict bears, without taking into account spatio-temporal variability of food resources in Dachigam landscape seemed to be ineffective in mitigating conflicts on a long-term basis. However, the study highlighted the importance of molecular tracking of bears to understand their movement patterns and socio-biology in tough terrains like Dachigam landscape.

  4. Investigation of population structure in Gulf of Mexico Seepiophila jonesi (Polychaeta, Siboglinidae using cross-amplified microsatellite loci

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunya Huang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Vestimentiferan tubeworms are some of the most recognizable fauna found at deep-sea cold seeps, isolated environments where hydrocarbon rich fluids fuel biological communities. Several studies have investigated tubeworm population structure; however, much is still unknown about larval dispersal patterns at Gulf of Mexico (GoM seeps. As such, researchers have applied microsatellite markers as a measure for documenting the transport of vestimentiferan individuals. In the present study, we investigate the utility of microsatellites to be cross-amplified within the escarpiid clade of seep vestimentiferans, by determining if loci originally developed for Escarpia spp. could be amplified in the GoM seep tubeworm, Seepiophila jonesi. Additionally, we determine if cross-amplified loci can reliably uncover the same signatures of high gene flow seen in a previous investigation of S. jonesi. Methods Seventy-seven S. jonesi individuals were collected from eight seep sites across the upper Louisiana slope (<1,000 m in the GoM. Forty-eight microsatellite loci that were originally developed for Escarpia laminata (18 loci and Escarpia southwardae (30 loci were tested to determine if they were homologous and polymorphic in S. jonesi. Loci found to be both polymorphic and of high quality were used to test for significant population structuring in S. jonesi. Results Microsatellite pre-screening identified 13 (27% of the Escarpia loci were homologous and polymorphic in S. jonesi, revealing that microsatellites can be amplified within the escarpiid clade of vestimentiferans. Our findings uncovered low levels of heterozygosity and a lack of genetic differentiation amongst S. jonesi from various sites and regions, in line with previous investigations that employed species-specific polymorphic loci on S. jonesi individuals retrieved from both the same and different seep sites. The lack of genetic structure identified from these populations supports the

  5. Cognitive decline in Huntington's disease expansion gene carriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baake, Verena; Reijntjes, Robert H A M; Dumas, Eve M; Thompson, Jennifer C; Roos, Raymund A C

    2017-10-01

    In Huntington's Disease (HD) cognitive decline can occur before unequivocal motor signs become apparent. As cognitive decline often starts early in the course of the disease and has a progressive nature over time, cognition can be regarded as a key target for symptomatic treatment. The specific progressive profile of cognitive decline over time is unknown. The aim of this study is to quantify the progression of cognitive decline across all HD stages, from pre-motormanifest to advanced HD, and to investigate if CAG length mediates cognitive decline. In the European REGISTRY study 2669 HD expansion gene carriers underwent annual cognitive assessment. General linear mixed models were used to model the cognitive decline for each cognitive task across all disease stages. Additionally, a model was developed to evaluate the cognitive decline based on CAG length and age rather than disease stage. There was significant cognitive decline on all administered tasks throughout pre-motormanifest (close to estimated disease onset) participants and the subsequent motormanifest participants from stage 1 to stage 4. Performance on the Stroop Word and Stroop Color tests additionally declined significantly across the two pre-motormanifest groups: far and close to estimated disease onset. The evaluation of cognition performance in relation to CAG length and age revealed a more rapid cognitive decline in participants with longer CAG length than participants with shorter CAG length over time. Cognitive performance already shows decline in pre-motormanifest HD gene expansion carriers and gradually worsens to late stage HD. HD gene expansion carriers with certain CAG length have their own cognitive profile, i.e., longer CAG length is associated with more rapid decline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Strong families and declining fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilevych, Yuliya

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the role of family and social relationships in individuals’ reproductive careers during the fertility decline in Soviet Ukraine from around 1950 to 1975. These three decades after the Second World War signified the end of the First Demographic Transition in Ukraine

  7. French Wines on the Decline?:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Bodo

    2004-01-01

    French wines, differentiated by geographic origin, served for many decades as a basis for the French success in the British wine market. However in the early 1990s, market share began to decline. This article explores the values that market participants placed on labelling information on French...

  8. Strong families and declining fertility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilevych, Yuliya

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the role of family and social relationships in individuals’ reproductive careers during the fertility decline in Soviet Ukraine from around 1950 to 1975. These three decades after the Second World War signified the end of the First Demographic Transition in Ukraine

  9. The cultural evolution of fertility decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  10. Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemmell, Philip; Burrage, Kevin; Rodriguez, Blanca; Quinn, T Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally

  11. Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Gemmell

    Full Text Available Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+, inward rectifying K(+, L-type Ca(2+, and Na(+/K(+ pump currents in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al. at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in

  12. Investigation of Chemokine Receptor CCR2V64Il Gene Polymorphism and Migraine without Aura in the Iranian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Zandifar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives. Migraine is a multifactorial common neurovascular disease with a polygenic inheritance. Inflammation plays an important part in migraine pathophysiology. C-C chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2 is an important chemokine for monocyte aggregation and transendothelial monocyte migration. The aim of our study was to investigate the association of migraine with CCR2V64Il polymorphism in the Iranian population. Methods. We assessed 103 patients with newly diagnosed migraine and 100 healthy subjects. Genomic DNA samples were extracted from peripheral blood and genotypes of CCR2V64Il gene polymorphism were determined. For measuring the severity of headache, every patient filled out the MIGSEV questionnaire. Results. There were no significant differences in the distribution of both 64Il allele and heterozygote (GA genotype of CCR2 gene polymorphism (P=0.396; OR=0.92, 95% CI = 0.50–1.67 and P=0.388; OR=0.91, 95% CI = 0.47–1.73, resp. between case and control groups. There was no significant difference of alleles frequency between three grades of MIGSEV (P=0.922. Conclusions. In conclusion our results revealed no association between CCR2V64Il polymorphism and susceptibility to migraine and also headache severity in the Iranian population.

  13. A multi‐isotope investigation of diet and subsistence amongst island and mainland populations from early medieval western Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Angela L.; Chenery, Carolyn A.; Evans, Jane A.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objectives This is the first investigation of dietary practices amongst multiple early medieval populations (AD 500–1000) from Wales and the Isle of Man using carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur isotope analysis. The analysis will illuminate similarities or differences between the diets and subsistence strategies of populations occupying different geographical regions, specifically those living in marginal coastal regions in comparison to inland populations well‐connected to ecclesiastical centres and high‐status settlements. Materials and Methods One hundred and two human skeletons were sampled for carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis, and 69 human skeletons were sampled for sulphur isotope analysis from nine cemetery sites from western Britain (Isle of Man = 3, southwest Wales = 4, southeast Wales = 2). Thirteen faunal skeletons from St Patrick's Chapel (southwest Wales) were sampled for carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur isotope analysis. Results Human δ13C values range from −19.4‰ to −21.2‰ (δ13C mean=−20.4 ±0.4‰, 1σ, n = 86), and δ15N values range from 9.1‰ to 13.8‰ (δ15N mean = 10.8 ± 0.9‰, 1σ, n = 86). δ34S values range from 1.2‰ to 18.4‰ (δ34S mean = 11.6 ± 4.5‰, 1σ, n = 66). Significant differences were noted between the mean δ13C, δ15N and δ34S values according to geographic region: Isle of Man (δ13C = −20.7 ± 0.4‰, δ15N = 11.4 ±0.6‰, n = 13/86; δ34S mean = 17.1 ±0.6, n = 4/66), southwest Wales (δ13C = −20.5 ± 0.4‰, δ15N = 11.0 ±1‰, n = 32/86; δ34S = 16.1 ± 2.1, n = 21/66), and southeast Wales (δ13C =−20.3 ±0.4‰, δ15N = 10.4 ±0.7‰, n = 41/86; δ34S= 8.8 ±3‰, n = 41/66). Faunal δ13C values range from −23.1‰ to −21.2‰ (δ13C mean= −22.1 ±0.5‰, 1σ, n = 13), and δ15N values range from 6.3‰ to 9.8‰ (δ15N mean = 7.3 ± 1.1‰, 1σ, n = 13). δ34S values range from 4

  14. Recent fertility declines in China and India: a comparative view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, P M; Rani, S

    1995-12-01

    This paper compares fertility transitions in China and parts of India. It is argued that China experienced a more rapid and more "impressive" decline than that of India. Socioeconomic conditions in China were more conducive to fertility decline. Kerala State in India experienced a similar decline as China but at a slower pace. The birth control campaign in China is credited with an important role in speeding the transition. It is posited that the political and administrative system and economic conditions in India are not compatible with the Chinese style program strategies. Both countries had similar fertility levels in the immediate post-revolutionary period. The most rapid decline occurred during the 1970s in China. The fertility transition was almost completed by 1981. In India, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined by only 1 point between the 1950s and 1981. In China TFR declined over 3 points during 1970-81. 76.7% of the decline in China during 1970-81 is attributed to a marked decline in marital fertility in all age groups, with the exception of ages 15-19 years. The decline in India is attributed to the decline in marital fertility. Female age at marriage rose in India, but less "impressively." In 1981 the mean age at marriage in India was 18.4 years, but it was 22.8 years in China. Marital fertility among women aged older than 30 years was considerably lower in China. Both countries experienced an increase in literacy, but in China the level of literacy was much greater. Both countries faced food shortages, but China improved food availability and calorie consumption per capita. Health services also improved in both countries, but the Chinese system of "barefoot" doctors brought services with easier reach of rural populations. Political structures differed in their dominance and organization. Family planning programs were introduced earlier in India, but prevalence was 64.4% in China in 1981 and about 22% in India.

  15. Killdeer population trends in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanzenbacher, Peter M.; Haig, Susan M.

    2001-01-01

    Killdeers (Charadrius vociferus) are considered a common species that inhabits a wide range of wetland and upland habitats throughout much of North America, yet recent information suggests that they may be declining regionally, if not throughout much of their range. To address this issue, we examined population trends of this species at multiple spatial and temporal scales using data from two major avian survey efforts, the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Christmas Bird Count (CBC). A summary of BBS trends indicates significant long-term (1966a??1996) declines in breeding populations across North America. Geographic regions driving this decline were Canada, western survey regions of the continent, and select southeastern states. In contrast, over the same time period, Killdeer populations increased in some midwestern states, particularly those in the Great Lakes region. Recent BBS trends (1986a??1996) indicate highly significant declines across most areas of North America surveyed. Trends from CBC data (1959a??1988) indicate declines at a smaller spatial scale. While the ability of current major avian survey efforts to detect population trends for Killdeer and other shorebird species warrants further examination, significant negative trends in Killdeer populations indicates the need to further investigate the status of this species.

  16. An investigation on mandibular radiometric indices in normal female population referred to maxillofacial radiology centers in Rasht.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalili Z. Assistant Professor. Moghadam Qujeq A. Dentist.

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Statement of Problem: Bone material density (BMD is significantly decreased among postmenopausal women leading to the most common metabolic disease, osteoporosis."nMultiple bone fractures are of the most important consequences of this disease, which cost too much for the"nsociety. One of the cheapest and most available methods for the diagnosis of bone density changes is bone"nradiomorphometric evaluation by conventional methods. Studies have also revealed that mandibular"nradiomorphometric indices in panoramic radiographs yield invaluable information, which can be used as a"nscreening method to diagnose patients with decreasing bone density, and to determine normal values of"nmandibular radiomorphometric indices among normal subjects in different populations."nPurpose: The aim of the present study was to investigate the mandibular radiomorphometric indices in"npanoramic radiographs among normal female population referring to maxillofacial radiology centers to"ndetermine their relationship with age and the total teeth number of the subjects under study."nMaterial and Methods: In this descriptive-analytic study, two mandibular radiomorphometric indices namely"nthe Antegonial quantitative index (AI and the Cortical qualitative index (MCI were evaluated on 417"npanoramic radiographs of a female normal population, aged more than 20 years which divided into five age"ngroup, by one maxillofacial radiologist as an observer. The relationship between these indices, and also with"nthe number of teeth and age were investigated by variance and Pearson's analysis."nResults: Mean quantitative index (AI was 3.54±54%mm. The prevalence of MCI index was C2: 71.5%,"nCI: 20.9%and C3: 7.7%. There was significant correlation between AI/MCI indices with age, dentition and"nalso with each other.(P<0.0001."nConclusion: Based on the present study, with increasing age the mean AI and the number of teeth decrease"nsignificantly. MCI index also shows higher porosity

  17. Marital status and living situation during a 5-year period are associated with a subsequent 10-year cognitive decline in older men: The FINE study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gelder, van B.M.; Tijhuis, M.; Kalmijn, S.; Giampaoli, S.; Nissinen, A.; Kromhout, D.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the association between marital status and living situation (over 5 years) on 10-year subsequent cognitive decline. The study population consisted of 1,042 men aged 70-89 years in 1990, who participated in the longitudinal Finland, Italy, the Netherlands Elderly (known as FINE) Study.

  18. Using Africa's protected area network to estimate the global population of a threatened and declining species: a case study of the Critically Endangered White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murn, Campbell; Mundy, Peter; Virani, Munir Z; Borello, Wendy D; Holloway, Graham J; Thiollay, Jean-Marc

    2016-02-01

    The White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (WhV) is uncommon and largely restricted to protected areas across its range in sub-Saharan Africa. We used the World Database on Protected Areas to identify protected areas (PAs) likely to contain White-headed Vultures. Vulture occurrence on road transects in Southern, East, and West Africa was adjusted to nests per km(2) using data from areas with known numbers of nests and corresponding road transect data. Nest density was used to calculate the number of WhV nests within identified PAs and from there extrapolated to estimate the global population. Across a fragmented range, 400 PAs are estimated to contain 1893 WhV nests. Eastern Africa is estimated to contain 721 nests, Central Africa 548 nests, Southern Africa 468 nests, and West Africa 156 nests. Including immature and nonbreeding birds, and accounting for data deficient PAs, the estimated global population is 5475 - 5493 birds. The identified distribution highlights are alarming: over 78% (n = 313) of identified PAs contain fewer than five nests. A further 17% (n = 68) of PAs contain 5 - 20 nests and 4% (n = 14) of identified PAs are estimated to contain >20 nests. Just 1% (n = 5) of PAs are estimated to contain >40 nests; none is located in West Africa. Whilst ranging behavior of WhVs is currently unknown, 35% of PAs large enough to hold >20 nests are isolated by more than 100 km from other PAs. Spatially discrete and unpredictable mortality events such as poisoning pose major threats to small localized vulture populations and will accelerate ongoing local extinctions. Apart from reducing the threat of poisoning events, conservation actions promoting linkages between protected areas should be pursued. Identifying potential areas for assisted re-establishment via translocation offers the potential to expand the range of this species and alleviate risk.

  19. Capturing Ambulatory Activity Decline in Parkinson Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanaugh, James T; Ellis, Terry D; Earhart, Gammon M; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K. Bo

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Relatively little is known about the natural evolution of physical activity-related participation restrictions associated with Parkinson disease (PD). We examined this issue prospectively using continuous monitoring technology to capture the free-living ambulatory activity of persons living with PD engaging in life situations. We specifically sought (1) to explore natural, long-term changes in daily ambulatory activity, and (2) to compare the responsiveness of ambulatory activity parameters to clinical measures of gait and disease severity. Methods Thirty-three persons with PD participated (Hoehn and Yahr range of 1–3). Participants wore a step activity monitor for up to 7 days at baseline and again at 1-year follow-up. Mean daily values were calculated for parameters indicative of amount, intensity, frequency, and duration of ambulatory activity. Clinical measures included the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale, the 6-Minute Walk, and Maximal Gait Speed. Parametric tests for paired samples were used to investigate changes in ambulatory activity parameters and clinical measures. Results Participants had significant declines in the amount and intensity of daily ambulatory activity but not in its frequency and duration (p < 0.007). Declines occurred in the absence of changes in clinical measures of gait or disease severity. The greatest 1-year decline occurred in the number of daily minutes participants spent engaging in at least moderate-intensity ambulatory activity. Conclusion Continuous monitoring of ambulatory activity beyond mere step counts may serve as a distinct and important means of quantifying declining ambulatory behavior associated with disease progression or improved ambulatory behavior resulting from rehabilitation, medical, and / or surgical interventions in persons with PD. PMID:22592060

  20. Brucella abortus strain RB51 vaccine: immune response after calfhood vaccination and field investigation in Italian cattle population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tittarelli, Manuela; Bonfini, Barbara; De Massis, Fabrizio; Giovannini, Armando; Di Ventura, Mauro; Nannini, Donatella; Caporale, Vincenzo

    2008-01-01

    Immune response to Brucella abortus strain RB51 vaccine was measured in cattle vaccinated at calfhood. After an increase at day 6 post-vaccination (pv), the antibody level recorded in the 10 vaccinated animals remained constant for two months, and then progressively decreased. All vaccinated animals remained negative from day 162 pv to the end of the study (day 300 pv). Only at days 13 and 14 pv the RB51-CFT showed 100% sensitivity (credibility interval (CI) 76.2%-100%). The results indicate that the possibility to use RB51-CFT for the identification of cattle vaccinated at calfhood with RB51 is limited in time. A field investigation was carried out on 26,975 sera collected on regional basis from the Italian cattle population. The study outcomes indicate that in case of RB51-CFT positive results observed in officially Brucellosis-free (OBF) areas and, in any case, when an illegal use of RB51 vaccine is suspected, the use of the RB51-CFT alone is not sufficient to identify all the vaccinated animals. The design of a more sophisticated diagnostic protocol including an epidemiological investigation, the use of RB51-CFT, and the use of the skin test with RB51 as antigen is deemed more appropriate for the identification of RB51 vaccinated animals.

  1. Brucella abortus Strain RB51 Vaccine: Immune Response after Calfhood Vaccination and Field Investigation in Italian Cattle Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Tittarelli

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Immune response to Brucella abortus strain RB51 vaccine was measured in cattle vaccinated at calfhood. After an increase at day 6 post-vaccination (pv, the antibody level recorded in the 10 vaccinated animals remained constant for two months, and then progressively decreased. All vaccinated animals remained negative from day 162 pv to the end of the study (day 300 pv. Only at days 13 and 14 pv the RB51-CFT showed 100% sensitivity (credibility interval (CI 76.2%–100%. The results indicate that the possibility to use RB51-CFT for the identification of cattle vaccinated at calfhood with RB51 is limited in time. A field investigation was carried out on 26,975 sera collected on regional basis from the Italian cattle population. The study outcomes indicate that in case of RB51-CFT positive results observed in officially Brucellosis-free (OBF areas and, in any case, when an illegal use of RB51 vaccine is suspected, the use of the RB51-CFT alone is not sufficient to identify all the vaccinated animals. The design of a more sophisticated diagnostic protocol including an epidemiological investigation, the use of RB51-CFT, and the use of the skin test with RB51 as antigen is deemed more appropriate for the identification of RB51 vaccinated animals.

  2. Energy consumption declined in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    On presenting the energy consumption figures for 1993 the Minister for Economic Affairs of Baden-Wuerttemberg Dieter Spoeri (SPD) spoke of the eternal task of saving energy. In his view the slight decline in energy consumption from 1992 to 1993 should not be interpreted as a greater willingness to save energy; its main cause is rather to be seen in the course of the economy. According to estimations, total energy consumption fell 0.5% and electricity consumption 1.0% from 1992 to 1993. The economy on the other hand, still a decisive factor in energy consumption, is estimated to have declined 3% during that period. In the ten years from 1983 to 1993 total energy consumption in the Land rose an average annual 1.8% while electricity consumption kept astride with the economy with an average annual rise 2.7%, he said. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Impaired Sleep Predicts Cognitive Decline in Old People: Findings from the Prospective KORA Age Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johar, Hamimatunnisa; Kawan, Rasmila; Emeny, Rebecca Thwing; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the association between sleep-related characteristics and cognitive change over 3 years of follow up in an aged population. Sleep characteristics and covariates were assessed at baseline in a standardized interview and clinical examination of the population-based KORA Age Study (n = 740, mean age = 75 years). Cognitive score (determined by telephone interview for cognitive status, TICS-m) was recorded at baseline and 3 years later. At baseline, 82.83% (n = 613) of participants had normal cognitive status, 13.51% (n = 100) were classified with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 3.64% (n = 27) with probable dementia. The effect of three distinct patterns of poor sleep (difficulties initiating [DIS] or maintaining sleep [DMS], daytime sleepiness [DS] or sleep duration) were considered on a change in cognitive score with adjustments for potential confounders in generalized linear regression models. Cognitive decline was more pronounced in individuals with DMS compared to those with no DMS (β = 1.33, 95% CI = 0.41-2.24, P cognition and not impaired subjects at baseline. Prolonged sleep duration increased the risk for cognitive decline in cognitively impaired elderly (β = 1.86, 95% CI = 0.15-3.57, P = 0.03). Other sleep characteristics (DIS and DS) were not significantly associated with cognitive decline. DMS and long sleep duration were associated with cognitive decline in normal and cognitively impaired elderly, respectively. The identification of impaired sleep quality may offer intervention strategies to deter cognitive decline in the elderly with normal cognitive function. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  4. The Decline of Directly Observed Physical Function Performance Among U.S. Chinese Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi; Bergren, Stephanie M; Simon, Melissa A

    2017-07-01

    Physical function decline is a major public health concern and can predict later mortality. This study aims to examine the sociodemographic factors associated with physical function decline among U.S. Chinese older adults through a longitudinal population-based study. Data were derived from the Population Study of Chinese Elderly (PINE) at two time points: 2011-2013 and 2013-2015. Physical function was measured by observed physical performance testing, including chair stand, tandem stand, and timed walk. Mixed-effect models were used to analyze the demographic risk factors associated with physical function decline. Of the 2,713 participants in waves 1 and 2, their average age was 72.6 years old, 58.4% were female, with 8.7 years of education average, and 85.8% had an annual individual income of less than $10,000. Our findings show subjects of older age, female sex, lower education, lower income, and a greater number of medical comorbidities had lower physical function levels at baseline. Older adults experienced a faster decline in physical function for the overall performance measure (β = -.02, p S. Chinese older adults, our study finds older age and higher education are two factors associated with a faster rate of physical function decline. In future research, long-term follow up and multiple waves of data are needed to investigate risk or resilience factors for disability or recovering from disability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Healthy eating and reduced risk of cognitive decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghan, Mahshid; O'Donnell, Martin; Anderson, Craig; Teo, Koon; Gao, Peggy; Sleight, Peter; Dagenais, Gilles; Probstfield, Jeffrey L.; Mente, Andrew; Yusuf, Salim

    2015-01-01

    Objective: We sought to determine the association of dietary factors and risk of cognitive decline in a population at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods: Baseline dietary intake and measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination were recorded in 27,860 men and women who were enrolled in 2 international parallel trials of the ONTARGET (Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial) and TRANSCEND (Telmisartan Randomised Assessment Study in ACE Intolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease) studies. We measured diet quality using the modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between diet quality and risk of ≥3-point decline in Mini-Mental State Examination score, and reported as hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals with adjustment for covariates. Results: During 56 months of follow-up, 4,699 cases of cognitive decline occurred. We observed lower risk of cognitive decline among those in the healthiest dietary quintile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index compared with lowest quintile (hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.66–0.86, Q5 vs Q1). Lower risk of cognitive decline was consistent regardless of baseline cognitive level. Conclusion: We found that higher diet quality was associated with a reduced risk of cognitive decline. Improved diet quality represents an important potential target for reducing the global burden of cognitive decline. PMID:25948720

  6. Cognitive decline in Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarsland, Dag; Creese, Byron; Politis, Marios; Chaudhuri, K. Ray; ffytche, Dominic H.; Weintraub, Daniel; Ballard, Clive

    2017-01-01

    Dementia is a frequent problem encountered in advanced stages of Parkinson disease (PD). In recent years, research has focused on the pre-dementia stages of cognitive impairment in PD, including mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Several longitudinal studies have shown that MCI is a harbinger of dementia in PD, although the course is variable, and stabilization of cognition — or even reversal to normal cognition — is not uncommon. In addition to limbic and cortical spread of Lewy pathology, several other mechanisms are likely to contribute to cognitive decline in PD, and a variety of biomarker studies, some using novel structural and functional imaging techniques, have documented in vivo brain changes associated with cognitive impairment. The evidence consistently suggests that low cerebrospinal fluid levels of amyloid-β42, a marker of comorbid Alzheimer disease (AD), predict future cognitive decline and dementia in PD. Emerging genetic evidence indicates that in addition to the APOE*ε4 allele (an established risk factor for AD), GBA mutations and SCNA mutations and triplications are associated with cognitive decline in PD, whereas the findings are mixed for MAPT polymorphisms. Cognitive enhancing medications have some effect in PD dementia, but no convincing evidence that progression from MCI to dementia can be delayed or prevented is available, although cognitive training has shown promising results. PMID:28257128

  7. NGMSElectTM and Investigator® Argus X-12 analysis in population samples from Albania, Iraq, Lithuania, Slovenia, and Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Lena; Tomas Mas, Carmen; Drobnic, Katja

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of STRs is the main tool when studying genetic diversity in populations or when addressing individual identification in forensic casework. Population data are needed to establish reference databases that can be used in the forensic context. To that end, this work investigated five...

  8. Pre-Columbian population dynamics in coastal southern Peru: A diachronic investigation of mtDNA patterns in the Palpa region by ancient DNA analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Reindel, Markus; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Hummel, Susanne; Herrmann, Bernd

    2010-02-01

    Alternative models have been proposed to explain the formation and decline of the south Peruvian Nasca culture, ranging from migration or invasion to autochthonous development and ecological crisis. To reveal to what extent population dynamic processes accounted for cultural development in the Nasca mainland, or were influenced by them, we analyzed ancient mitochondrial DNA of 218 individuals, originating from chronologically successive archaeological sites in the Palpa region, the Paracas Peninsula, and the Andean highlands in southern Peru. The sampling strategy allowed a diachronic analysis in a time frame from approximately 800 BC to 800 AD. Mitochondrial coding region polymorphisms were successfully analyzed and replicated for 130 individuals and control region sequences (np 16021-16408) for 104 individuals to determine Native American mitochondrial DNA haplogroups and haplotypes. The results were compared with ancient and contemporary Peruvian populations to reveal genetic relations of the archaeological samples. Frequency data and statistics show clear proximity of the Nasca populations to the populations of the preceding Paracas culture from Palpa and the Peninsula, and suggest, along with archaeological data, that the Nasca culture developed autochthonously in the Rio Grande drainage. Furthermore, the influence of changes in socioeconomic complexity in the Palpa area on the genetic diversity of the local population could be observed. In all, a strong genetic affinity between pre-Columbian coastal populations from southern Peru could be determined, together with a significant differentiation from ancient highland and all present-day Peruvian reference populations, best shown in the differential distribution of mitochondrial haplogroups. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. Investigation of KIF6 Trp719Arg in a case-control study of myocardial infarction: a Costa Rican population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lance A Bare

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The 719Arg allele of KIF6 (rs20455 was associated with coronary events in Caucasian participants of five prospective studies. We investigated whether this KIF6 variant was associated with non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI in a case-control study of an admixed population from the Central Valley of Costa Rica. Genotypes of the KIF6 variant were determined for 4,134 men and women. Cases (1,987 had survived a first MI; controls (2,147 had no history of MI and were matched to cases by age, sex, and area of residence. We tested the association between the KIF6 719Arg allele and non-fatal MI by conditional logistic regression and adjusted for admixture of founder populations.Compared with the reference Trp/Trp homozygotes, KIF6 719Arg carriers were not at significantly higher risk for non-fatal MI in this study after adjustment for traditional risk factors or admixture (OR= 1.12; 95%CI, 0.98-1.28. Heterozygotes of the KIF6 Trp719Arg variant were at increased risk of non-fatal MI: the adjusted odds ratio was 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.34, but this association would not be significant after a multiple testing correction.We found that carriers of the KIF6 719Arg allele were not at increased risk of non-fatal MI in a case-control study of Costa Ricans living in the Central Valley of Costa Rica.

  10. Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

    2013-01-01

    Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

  11. Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C.M. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology and Wildlife; Sink, S.E.; Juday, G.P. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Hennon, P.E.; D' Amore, D.V. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Juneau, AK (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory

    2008-06-15

    The decline of yellow cedar in temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska was investigated. Dieback of the species has been observed as early as 1909. The dehardening process for the species is highly temperature-dependent. Declining stands have been found in open-canopy forests on poorly drained sites. Historical climate data sets were compiled suing extensive tree-ring chronologies. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that a specific suite of microclimatic conditions that occur during late winter involving early dehardening, reduced snowpack, and freezing injury are responsible. The assumption was tested by examining regional climatic trends and growth responses of declining cedar populations. Results of the study showed increasing winter temperatures in the region which have resulted in the frequent occurrence of severe thaw-freeze events. Late winter weather was the best predictor of annual growth for surviving trees. Results of the study also verified the impact of elevational gradients of temperature and snow cover on the exposure of the trees to climatic stressors. It was concluded that yellow cedars may continue to decline with continued climatic warming. 36 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.

  12. Surgery-Independent Language Function Decline in Patients Undergoing Awake Craniotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonen, Tal; Sela, Gal; Yanakee, Ranin; Ram, Zvi; Grossman, Rachel

    2017-03-01

    Despite selection process before awake-craniotomy, some patients experience an unexpected decline in language functions in the operating room (OR), compared with their baseline evaluation, which may impair their functional monitoring. To investigate this phenomenon we prospectively compared language function the day before surgery and on entrance to the OR. Data were collected prospectively from consecutive patients undergoing awake-craniotomy with intraoperative cortical mapping for resection of gliomas affecting language areas. Language functions of 79 patients were evaluated and compared 1-2 days before surgery and after entering the OR. Changes in functional linguistic performance were analyzed with respect to demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics. There was a significant decline in language function, beyond sedation effect, after entering the OR, (from median/interquartile range: 0.94/0.72-0.98 to median/interquartile range: 0.86/0.51-0.94; Z = -7.19, P craniotomy may experience a substantial decline in language functioning after entering the OR. Tumor grade and the presence of preoperative language deficits were significant risk factors for this phenomenon, suggesting a possible relation between cognitive reserve, psychobehavioral coping abilities and histologic features of a tumor involving language areas. Capturing and identifying this unique population of patients who are prone to experience such language decline may improve our ability in the future to select patients eligible for awake-craniotomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource limitation on fish populations: A case study with Fundulus heteroclitus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding t...

  14. Interplay between financial assets and social relations on decline in physical function and mortality among older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Terese Sara Høj; Lund, Rikke; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2017-01-01

    It is well established that socioeconomic position (SEP) and social relations impact physical function and mortality in old age. Due to differential vulnerability, few social relations may lead to greater decline in physical function and mortality among older people with low compared to high SEP....... The aim was to investigate whether older people with few social relations experience greater decline in physical function and mortality when also subject to low financial assets? The study population included 4060 older people aged 75 or 80 years at baseline in 1998–1999. Social relations at baseline...... and physical function at baseline and after 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 years were obtained from questionnaires. Financial assets at baseline and mortality during 10 years of follow-up were obtained from registers. Analyses of the associations between financial assets combined with social relations and decline...

  15. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

    2018-01-18

    Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

  16. Declining suburbs in Europe and Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audirac, Ivonne; Cunningham-Sabot, Emmanuèle; Fol, Sylvie; Moraes, Sergio Torres

    2012-01-01

    Suburban shrinkage, understood as a degenerative urban process stemming from the demise of the Fordist mode of urbanism, is generally manifested in a decline in population, industry and employment. It is also intimately linked to the global restructuring of industrial organization associated with the rise of the post-Fordist mode of urbanism and, more recently, the thrust of Asian industrialization. Framed in the discourse of industrial urbanism, this article examines the first ring of industrial suburbs that developed around large cities in their most rapid Fordist urbanization phase. These industrial suburbs, although they were formed at different times, are today experiencing specific mutations and undergoing profound restructuring on account of their particular spatial position between the central area and the expanding peripheries of the post-Fordist metropolis. This article describes and compares suburban decline in two European cities (Glasgow and Paris) and two Latin American Cities (São Paulo, Brazil and Guadalajara, Mexico), as different instances of places asymmetrically and fragmentarily integrated into the geography of globalization.

  17. Wild Pigs: inciting factor in southern pine decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lori G. Eckhardt; Roger D. Menard; Stephen S. Ditchkoff

    2016-01-01

    During an investigation into southern pine decline at Fort Benning Georgia, the possibility of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) as an inciting factor became evident. Their rooting activity caused significant root damage on sites showing symptoms of pine decline. It was thought that perhaps the pigs may be moving around pathogenic fungi during their rooting activity in Pinus...

  18. Research tools to investigate movements, migrations, and life history of sturgeons (Acipenseridae, with an emphasis on marine-oriented populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy C Nelson

    Full Text Available Worldwide, sturgeons (Acipenseridae are among the most endangered fishes due to habitat degradation, overfishing, and inherent life history characteristics (long life span, late maturation, and infrequent spawning. As most sturgeons are anadromous, a considerable portion of their life history occurs in estuarine and marine environments where they may encounter unique threats (e.g., interception in non-target fisheries. Of the 16 marine-oriented species, 12 are designated as Critically Endangered by the IUCN, and these include species commercially harvested. We review important research tools and techniques (tagging, electronic tagging, genetics, microchemistry, observatory and discuss the comparative utility of these techniques to investigate movements, migrations, and life-history characteristics of sturgeons. Examples are provided regarding what the applications have revealed regarding movement and migration and how this information can be used for conservation and management. Through studies that include Gulf (Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi and Green Sturgeon (A. medirostris, we illustrate what is known about well-studied species and then explore lesser-studied species. A more complete picture of migration is available for North American sturgeon species, while European and Asian species, which are among the most endangered sturgeons, are less understood. We put forth recommendations that encourage the support of stewardship initiatives to build awareness and provide key information for population assessment and monitoring.

  19. Research Tools to Investigate Movements, Migrations, and Life History of Sturgeons (Acipenseridae), with an Emphasis on Marine-Oriented Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Troy C.; Doukakis, Phaedra; Lindley, Steven T.; Schreier, Andrea D.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Hildebrand, Larry R.; Whitlock, Rebecca E.; Webb, Molly A. H.

    2013-01-01

    Worldwide, sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are among the most endangered fishes due to habitat degradation, overfishing, and inherent life history characteristics (long life span, late maturation, and infrequent spawning). As most sturgeons are anadromous, a considerable portion of their life history occurs in estuarine and marine environments where they may encounter unique threats (e.g., interception in non-target fisheries). Of the 16 marine-oriented species, 12 are designated as Critically Endangered by the IUCN, and these include species commercially harvested. We review important research tools and techniques (tagging, electronic tagging, genetics, microchemistry, observatory) and discuss the comparative utility of these techniques to investigate movements, migrations, and life-history characteristics of sturgeons. Examples are provided regarding what the applications have revealed regarding movement and migration and how this information can be used for conservation and management. Through studies that include Gulf (Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi) and Green Sturgeon (A. medirostris), we illustrate what is known about well-studied species and then explore lesser-studied species. A more complete picture of migration is available for North American sturgeon species, while European and Asian species, which are among the most endangered sturgeons, are less understood. We put forth recommendations that encourage the support of stewardship initiatives to build awareness and provide key information for population assessment and monitoring. PMID:23990959

  20. Investigation of p53 codon72 polymorphism in oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC specimens and normal population by PCR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyhimi P.

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available "nBackground and Aim: A single nucleotide polymorphism at codon 72 of the p53 gene alters the p53 protein structure and affects its activity. This polymorphism depends on geographic regions and race. Also its association with some cancers has been reported. The aim of this study was to investigate this polymorphism in well differentiated oral SCC and normal population in the city of Isfahan. "nMaterials and Methods: In this case-control study, 20 paraffin blocks of non metastatic and well differentiated oral SCC were selected from the archive of oral pathology department of dental school between 2001 and 2005. 20 whole blood samples from normal people were considered as control group. After DNA extraction, p53 codon 72 polymorphism was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR technique using specific primers of Arg and Pro and agarose gel electrophoresis. Data were analyzed by Fisher's exact test with p<0.05 as the level of significance. "nResults: The prevalence of Arg/Arg , Arg/Pro and Pro/Pro genotypes in case group were 45%,45% and 10% respectively compared to 45%,50% and 5% in controls. There was no statistical significant difference in p53 codon 72 genotypes distribution between case and control groups. "nConclusion: Based on the results of this study, p53 polymorphism could not be considered as a genetic predisposing factor for oral SCC development in Isfahan.

  1. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Walpole, Matt; Collen, Ben; Van Strien, Arco; Scharlemann, Jorn P.W.; Almond, Rosamunde E.A.; Baillie, Jonathan E.M.; Bomhard, Bastian; Brown, Claire; Bruno, John; Carpenter, Kent E.; Carr, Genevieve M.; Chanson, Janice; Chenery, Anna M.; Csirke, Jorge; Davidson, Nick C.; Dentener, Frank; Foster, Matt; Galli, Alessandro; Galloway, James N.; Genovesi, Piero; Gregory, Richard D.; Hockings, Marc; Kapos, Valerie; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Leverington, Fiona; Loh, Jonathan; McGeoch, Melodie A.; McRae, Louise; Minasyan, Anahit; Morcillo, Monica Hernandez; Oldfield, Thomasina E.E.; Pauly, Daniel; Quader, Suhel; Revenga, Carmen; Sauer, John R.; Skolnik, Benjamin; Spear, Dian; Stanwell-Smith, Damon; Stuart, Simon N.; Symes, Andy; Tierney, Megan; Tyrrell, Tristan D.; Vie, Jean-Christophe; Watson, Reg

    2011-01-01

    In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

  2. Disentangling the Galactic Halo with APOGEE. I. Chemical and Kinematical Investigation of Distinct Metal-poor Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Christian R.; Majewski, Steven R.; Shetrone, Matthew; Fernández-Alvar, Emma; Allende Prieto, Carlos; Schuster, William J.; Carigi, Leticia; Cunha, Katia; Smith, Verne V.; Sobeck, Jennifer; Almeida, Andres; Beers, Timothy C.; Carrera, Ricardo; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; García-Hernández, D. A.; Geisler, Doug; Lane, Richard R.; Lucatello, Sara; Matthews, Allison M.; Minniti, Dante; Nitschelm, Christian; Tang, Baitian; Tissera, Patricia B.; Zamora, Olga

    2018-01-01

    We find two chemically distinct populations separated relatively cleanly in the [Fe/H]–[Mg/Fe] plane, but also distinguished in other chemical planes, among metal-poor stars (primarily with metallicities [{Fe}/{{H}}]C+N, Al, and Ni. In addition to these populations having differing chemistry, the low metallicity high-Mg population (which we denote “the HMg population”) exhibits a significant net Galactic rotation, whereas the low-Mg population (or “the LMg population”) has halo-like kinematics with little to no net rotation. Based on its properties, the origin of the LMg population is likely an accreted population of stars. The HMg population shows chemistry (and to an extent kinematics) similar to the thick disk, and is likely associated with in situ formation. The distinction between the LMg and HMg populations mimics the differences between the populations of low- and high-α halo stars found in previous studies, suggesting that these are samples of the same two populations.

  3. Generalized atherosclerosis, cognitive decline, and depressive symptoms in old age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinkers, D.J.; Stek, M.L.; van der Mast, R.C.; de Craen, A.J.; Le Cessie, S.; Jolles, J.; Westendorp, R.G.; Gussekloo, J.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis may be linked to cognitive decline and depression in old age. METHODS: The Leiden 85-Plus Study is a prospective population-based study of 599 subjects from age 85 onward. The generalized atherosclerotic burden was rated by the number of cardiovascular pathologies at

  4. Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathías Nathan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The total fertility rate (TFR in Uruguay fell from 2.5 to 1.9 children per woman between 1996 and 2011. However, no study to date has examined the decline of the TFR by observing changes in fertility patterns by birth order. Objective: The main aim of this study is to analyze recent changes in fertility level and timing of childbearing by birth order in Uruguay. Methods: We estimate unconditional and conditional age- and birth-order-specific fertility rates for 1996-2011 using data from vital statistics, population census, and national population estimates. Additionally, three period summary measures of birth-order-specific fertility quantum are calculated: TFR, PATFR and TFRp*. Timing changes by birth order are examined with MAB and TMAB, focusing on MAB1 and its standard deviation and comparing their evolutions in Uruguay with those of selected countries. Results: Fertility decline fits a parity-specific stopping model with a moderate increase in the mean ages of first, second, and third births. The distribution of conditional fertility rates for first and second births depicts an asymmetric bimodal shape linked to the increasing heterogeneity of the timing of childbearing. Compared to countries with similar fertility trends, heterogeneity in the age at first birth in Uruguay is remarkably high. Conclusions: Previous studies suggest that heterogeneity in first and second birth timing is related to structural social inequalities, as women from lower social strata have not significantly changed the age at which they bear a first child, whereas women of middle to high social strata have started to postpone it. The new evidence reinforces the idea that postponement transition in Uruguay cannot be studied without considering this consolidation of social status polarization in fertility timing.

  5. Alien mink predation induces prolonged declines in archipelago amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Ahola, Markus; Nordström, Mikael; Banks, Peter B; Laanetu, Nikolai; Korpimäki, Erkki

    2006-01-01

    Amphibians are undergoing enigmatic global declines variously attributed to a complex web of anthropogenic forces. Alien predators pose a fundamental threat to biodiversity generally that is predicted to be most acute in island ecosystems. While amphibian eggs and tadpoles are vulnerable to aquatic predators, the effect of predators on adult, reproducing frogs, which most influence amphibian population processes, is unknown. Here, we report on the responses of amphibian populations in the out...

  6. Preventing cognitive decline, sedentariness and malnutrition: the DOREMI approach

    OpenAIRE

    Parodi, Oberdan; Vozzi, Federico; Ferro, Erina; Fortunati, Luigi; Micheli, Alessio; Bacciu, Davide; Gallicchio, Claudio; Chessa, Stefano; Ascolese, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    All countries in Europe are experiencing an ageing of their populations, with a decrease in the number of people of working age per retiree. Health trends among the elderly are mixed: severe disability is declining in some countries but increasing in others, while mild disability and chronic disease are generally increasing. As a consequence, long-term care costs are certain to increase with the ageing of the population, unless appropriate measures are implemented and elderly people empowered...

  7. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, K.B.; Kentie, R.; Verkuil, Y.; Musters, C.J.M.; Piersma, Th.; Snoo, de G.R.

    2011-01-01

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  8. No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa limosa in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trimbos, Krijn B.; Musters, C. J. M.; Verkuil, Yvonne I.; Kentie, Rosemarie; Piersma, Theunis; de Snoo, Geert R.

    With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since

  9. Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

  10. Investigating the factorial structure and availability of work time control in a representative sample of the Swedish working population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Sophie C; Kecklund, Göran; Tucker, Philip; Leineweber, Constanze

    2016-05-01

    Past research has often neglected the sub-dimensions of work time control (WTC). Moreover, differences in levels of WTC with respect to work and demographic characteristics have not yet been examined in a representative sample. We investigated these matters in a recent sample of the Swedish working population. The study was based on the 2014 data collection of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health. We assessed the structure of the WTC measure using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Differences in WTC by work and demographic characteristics were examined with independent samplet-tests, one-way ANOVAs and gender-stratified logistic regressions. Best model fit was found for a two-factor structure that distinguished between control over daily hours and control over time off (root mean square error of approximation = 0.06; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.09; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.99). Women, shift and public-sector workers reported lower control in relation to both factors. Age showed small associations with WTC, while a stronger link was suggested for civil status and family situation. Night, roster and rotating shift work seemed to be the most influential factors on reporting low control over daily hours and time off. Our data confirm the two-dimensional structure underlying WTC, namely the components 'control over daily hours' and 'control over time off'. Women, public-sector and shift workers reported lower levels of control. Future research should examine the public health implications of WTC, in particular whether increased control over daily hours and time off can reduce health problems associated with difficult working-time arrangements. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  11. Investigating behaviour and population dynamics of striped marlin (Kajikia audax from the southwest Pacific Ocean with satellite tags.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Sippel

    Full Text Available Behaviour and distribution of striped marlin within the southwest Pacific Ocean were investigated using electronic tagging data collected from 2005-2008. A continuous-time correlated random-walk Kalman filter was used to integrate double-tagging data exhibiting variable error structures into movement trajectories composed of regular time-steps. This state-space trajectory integration approach improved longitude and latitude error distributions by 38.5 km and 22.2 km respectively. Using these trajectories as inputs, a behavioural classification model was developed to infer when, and where, 'transiting' and 'area-restricted' (ARB pseudo-behavioural states occurred. ARB tended to occur at shallower depths (108 ± 49 m than did transiting behaviours (127 ± 57 m. A 16 day post-release period of diminished ARB activity suggests that patterns of behaviour were affected by the capture and/or tagging events, implying that tagged animals may exhibit atypical behaviour upon release. The striped marlin in this study dove deeper and spent greater time at ≥ 200 m depth than those in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. As marlin reached tropical latitudes (20-21 °S they consistently reversed directions, increased swimming speed and shifted to transiting behaviour. Reversals in the tropics also coincided with increases in swimming depth, including increased time ≥ 250 m. Our research provides enhanced understanding of the behavioural ecology of striped marlin. This has implications for the effectiveness of spatially explicit population models and we demonstrate the need to consider geographic variation when standardizing CPUE by depth, and provide data to inform natural and recreational fishing mortality parameters.

  12. Investigation of hemorrhagic fever viruses inside wild populations of ticks: One of the pioneer studies in Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rania Ali El Hadi Mohamed

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To screen hemorrhagic fever viruses inside wild populations of ticks collected from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between January and March 2016. Methods: Ticks were identified depending on their morphological features using classical keys then grouped into pools. Ticks in each pool were processed separately using the sterile pestles and mortars. Viral RNA was extracted us