The source of infrasound associated with long-period events at mount St. Helens

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, R.S.; Garces, M.A.; Chouet, B.A.; D'Auria, L.; Hedlin, M.A.H.; De Groot-Hedlin, C.; Waite, G.P.

2009-01-01

During the early stages of the 2004-2008 Mount St. Helens eruption, the source process that produced a sustained sequence of repetitive long-period (LP) seismic events also produced impulsive broadband infrasonic signals in the atmosphere. To assess whether the signals could be generated simply by seismic-acoustic coupling from the shallow LP events, we perform finite difference simulation of the seismo-acoustic wavefield using a single numerical scheme for the elastic ground and atmosphere. The effects of topography, velocity structure, wind, and source configuration are considered. The simulations show that a shallow source buried in a homogeneous elastic solid produces a complex wave train in the atmosphere consisting of P/SV and Rayleigh wave energy converted locally along the propagation path, and acoustic energy originating from , the source epicenter. Although the horizontal acoustic velocity of the latter is consistent with our data, the modeled amplitude ratios of pressure to vertical seismic velocity are too low in comparison with observations, and the characteristic differences in seismic and acoustic waveforms and spectra cannot be reproduced from a common point source. The observations therefore require a more complex source process in which the infrasonic signals are a record of only the broadband pressure excitation mechanism of the seismic LP events. The observations and numerical results can be explained by a model involving the repeated rapid pressure loss from a hydrothermal crack by venting into a shallow layer of loosely consolidated, highly permeable material. Heating by magmatic activity causes pressure to rise, periodically reaching the pressure threshold for rupture of the "valve" sealing the crack. Sudden opening of the valve generates the broadband infrasonic signal and simultaneously triggers the collapse of the crack, initiating resonance of the remaining fluid. Subtle waveform and amplitude variability of the infrasonic signals as

Survey of reportable events in nuclear power plants in the Federal Republic of Germany. Period covered: 2nd quarter 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

There were 40 reportable events in the period covered. 39 events belonged to the lowest reporting category N (normal notification, INES scale 0), 1 incident belongs to the category E (immediate notification, INES scale 1). There was no release above limit of radioactivity nor were there any effects on man or environment. (orig.) [de

The Incubation Period of Primary Epstein-Barr Virus Infection: Viral Dynamics and Immunologic Events.

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Samantha K Dunmire

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Epstein-Barr virus (EBV is a human herpesvirus that causes acute infectious mononucleosis and is associated with cancer and autoimmune disease. While many studies have been performed examining acute disease in adults following primary infection, little is known about the virological and immunological events during EBV's lengthy 6 week incubation period owing to the challenge of collecting samples from this stage of infection. We conducted a prospective study in college students with special emphasis on frequent screening to capture blood and oral wash samples during the incubation period. Here we describe the viral dissemination and immune response in the 6 weeks prior to onset of acute infectious mononucleosis symptoms. While virus is presumed to be present in the oral cavity from time of transmission, we did not detect viral genomes in the oral wash until one week before symptom onset, at which time viral genomes were present in high copy numbers, suggesting loss of initial viral replication control. In contrast, using a sensitive nested PCR method, we detected viral genomes at low levels in blood about 3 weeks before symptoms. However, high levels of EBV in the blood were only observed close to symptom onset-coincident with or just after increased viral detection in the oral cavity. These data imply that B cells are the major reservoir of virus in the oral cavity prior to infectious mononucleosis. The early presence of viral genomes in the blood, even at low levels, correlated with a striking decrease in the number of circulating plasmacytoid dendritic cells well before symptom onset, which remained depressed throughout convalescence. On the other hand, natural killer cells expanded only after symptom onset. Likewise, CD4+ Foxp3+ regulatory T cells decreased two fold, but only after symptom onset. We observed no substantial virus specific CD8 T cell expansion during the incubation period, although polyclonal CD8 activation was detected in

Location of long-period events below Kilauea Volcano using seismic amplitudes and accurate relative relocation

Science.gov (United States)

Battaglia, J.; Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

2003-01-01

We present methods for improving the location of long-period (LP) events, deep and shallow, recorded below Kilauea Volcano by the permanent seismic network. LP events might be of particular interest to understanding eruptive processes as their source mechanism is assumed to directly involve fluid transport. However, it is usually difficult or impossible to locate their source using traditional arrival time methods because of emergent wave arrivals. At Kilauea, similar LP waveform signatures suggest the existence of LP multiplets. The waveform similarity suggests spatially close sources, while catalog solutions using arrival time estimates are widely scattered beneath Kilauea's summit caldera. In order to improve estimates of absolute LP location, we use the distribution of seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects. The decay of the amplitude as a function of hypocentral distance is used for inferring LP location. In a second stage, we use the similarity of the events to calculate their relative positions. The analysis of the entire LP seismicity recorded between January 1997 and December 1999 suggests that a very large part of the LP event population, both deep and shallow, is generated by a small number of compact sources. Deep events are systematically composed of a weak high-frequency onset followed by a low-frequency wave train. Aligning the low-frequency wave trains does not lead to aligning the onsets indicating the two parts of the signal are dissociated. This observation favors an interpretation in terms of triggering and resonance of a magmatic conduit. Instead of defining fault planes, the precise relocation of similar LP events, based on the alignment of the high-energy low-frequency wave trains, defines limited size volumes. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Association of stressful life events with acute myocardial infarction in population in the city of Niš within the period from 1998-2000.

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Deljanin Zorana

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Stressful life events present a very important category of psychosocial stress. A few studies have showed that a psychosocial stress represents a very important risk factor for acute myocardial infarction (AMI, but measures of stress may not be suitable for different countries, cultures and ethnic groups. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation of stressful life events with AMI in the period of 1998-2000 in the population of the city of Niš. Methods. A case-control study included 100 patients with the first MI (in the period 1998-2000 and 100 healthy subjects, matched with respect to sex and age (± 2 years from the city of Niš. The data of stressful life events were obtained by the Scaling of life events by Paykel ES, modified by the authors consistent with the examined population and the period of investigation. The Yates χ2 test, odds ratio - OR and their 99% interval of confidence were used as statistical procedures. Results. The results showed that stressful life events in the period of investigation were very important risk factors for AMI with a statistically significant level (p = 0.000. Huge financial problems (OR = 202.36, Ci = 24.82-4387.58, violation of law (OR = 168.00, Ci = 10.66-6658.96 and serious illness of family members (OR = 159.60, Ci = 19.05- 3514.81 were the highest risk for AMI. The patients who reported that his/her son or other member of family had been gone to the army (or mobilization before the illness onset, had 138 times higher risk of AMI (Ci = 14.98-3222.47, χ2 = 40.95, p = 0.000, while the patients who had mobilized themselves had 84 times higher risk (Ci = 7.00- 2363.06, χ2 = 23.87, p = 0.000. Effect of several stressful life events lead to significantly increased risk of AMI and that significance is larger as the number of life events is more frequent (one life event: OR = 28.41, Ci = 3.73- 593.52; χ2 = 17.40, p = 0.000; ≥ 4: OR = 336.00, Ci = 28.31- 9760.28, χ2 = 50

Shallow degassing events as a trigger for very-long-period seismicity at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

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Patrick, Matthew; Wilson, David; Fee, David; Orr, Tim R.; Swanson, Donald A.

2011-01-01

The first eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano’s summit in 25 years began in March 2008 with the opening of a 35-m-wide vent in Halema‘uma‘u crater. The new activity has produced prominent very-long-period (VLP) signals corresponding with two new behaviors: episodic tremor bursts and small explosive events, both of which represent degassing events from the top of the lava column. Previous work has shown that VLP seismicity has long been present at Kīlauea’s summit, and is sourced approximately 1 km below Halema‘uma‘u. By integrating video observations, infrasound and seismic data, we show that the onset of the large VLP signals occurs within several seconds of the onset of the degassing events. This timing indicates that the VLP is caused by forces—sourced at or very near the lava free surface due to degassing—transmitted down the magma column and coupling to the surrounding rock at 1 km depth.

Events of potential learning: how preschoolers produce curriculum at the computer during free play periods

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Mats Bevemyr

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The Swedish preschool curriculum emphasizes children’s learning through play. This means that children’s learning in everyday practice is accomplished through a complex mixture of teacher-led activities and activities the children themselves initiate. When learning is viewed as situated and constituted through social interaction (Lave & Wenger, 1991, almost all social events have learning potential. Consequently, from an educational and a curriculum point of view it is important to raise the question of how children’s learning can be made visible, and determine what kind of learning children’s own initiated (play activities imply. The focus of the paper is on children’s (aged 3-5 years “communities of practice” at the computer during “free play” period in two various Swedish preschools settings. Events of peer interaction are analyzed in detail to illustrate what kind of learning activities are going on at the computer, and to discuss these events of potential learning in relation to the curriculum goals and the educational practice. From a curriculum point of view, the analyses show that the children’s activities at the computer involve a variety of events that might provides for learning that can be viewed as goal-oriented. From the children’s point of view, the project of socialization seems to be the most prominent goal. A crucial point for educational success, however, is to understand not only what the object of learning is, rather what motivates children’s play apprenticeship in their own “communities of practice”.

Characterising the structure of quasi-periodic mixing events in stratified turbulent Taylor-Couette flow

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Singh, Kanwar Nain; Partridge, Jamie; Dalziel, Stuart; Caulfield, C. P.; Mathematical Underpinnings of Stratified Turbulence (MUST) Team

2017-11-01

We present results from experiments conducted to study mixing in a two-layer stably-stratified turbulent Taylor-Couette flow. It has previously been observed that there is a quasi-periodic mixing event located at the interface separating the layers. We observe, through conductivity probe measurements, that the power of the mixing event in the frequency spectrum of the density data at the interface is higher when measured near the inner cylinder than in the middle of the annular gap. This is consistent with Oglethorpe's (2014) hypothesis that the mixing structure is triggered near the inner cylinder, and then advects and decays or disperses radially. We also observe that at Ri =g/'Ro (RiΩi)2 7 , where Ri, Ro are the inner and outer cylinder radius, respectively, g ' the reduced gravity characterising the density jump between the layers and Ωi is the rotation rate of the inner cylinder, the power drops significantly at all radial locations, which is reminiscent of the onset of the enhanced flux regime as observed by Oglethorpe et al. (2013). We perform experiments to characterise the spatial extent and dynamics of this mixing structure using particle image velocimetry (PIV) giving further insights into this important mixing process. EPSRC programme Grant EP/K034529/1 & SGPC-CCT Scholarship.

Baseline Preferences for Daily, Event-Driven, or Periodic HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Gay and Bisexual Men in the PRELUDE Demonstration Project

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Stefanie J. Vaccher

2017-12-01

Full Text Available IntroductionThe effectiveness of daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP is well established. However, there has been increasing interest in non-daily dosing schedules among gay and bisexual men (GBM. This paper explores preferences for PrEP dosing schedules among GBM at baseline in the PRELUDE demonstration project.Materials and methodsIndividuals at high-risk of HIV were enrolled in a free PrEP demonstration project in New South Wales, Australia, between November 2014 and April 2016. At baseline, they completed an online survey containing detailed behavioural, demographic, and attitudinal questions, including their ideal way to take PrEP: daily (one pill taken every day, event-driven (pills taken only around specific risk events, or periodic (daily dosing during periods of increased risk.ResultsOverall, 315 GBM (98% of study sample provided a preferred PrEP dosing schedule at baseline. One-third of GBM expressed a preference for non-daily PrEP dosing: 20% for event-driven PrEP, and 14% for periodic PrEP. Individuals with a trade/vocational qualification were more likely to prefer periodic to daily PrEP [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 4.58, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI: (1.68, 12.49], compared to individuals whose highest level of education was high school. Having an HIV-positive main regular partner was associated with strong preference for daily, compared to event-driven PrEP [aOR = 0.20, 95% CI: (0.04, 0.87]. Participants who rated themselves better at taking medications were more likely to prefer daily over periodic PrEP [aOR = 0.39, 95% CI: (0.20, 0.76].DiscussionIndividuals’ preferences for PrEP schedules are associated with demographic and behavioural factors that may impact on their ability to access health services and information about PrEP and patterns of HIV risk. At the time of data collection, there were limited data available about the efficacy of non-daily PrEP schedules, and clinicians only recommended daily PrEP to

Long-period seismicity reveals magma pathways above a laterally propagating dyke during the 2014-15 Bárðarbunga rifting event, Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, Jennifer; Donaldson, Clare; White, Robert S.; Caudron, Corentin; Brandsdóttir, Bryndís; Hudson, Thomas S.; Ágústsdóttir, Thorbjörg

2018-05-01

The 2014-15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun rifting event comprised the best-monitored dyke intrusion to date and the largest eruption in Iceland in 230 years. A huge variety of seismicity was produced, including over 30,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) associated with the dyke propagation at ∼6 km depth below sea level, and large-magnitude earthquakes accompanying the collapse of Bárðarbunga caldera. We here study the long-period seismicity associated with the rifting event. We systematically detect and locate both long-period events (LPs) and tremor during the dyke propagation phase and the first week of the eruption. We identify clusters of highly similar, repetitive LPs, which have a peak frequency of ∼1 Hz and clear P and S phases followed by a long-duration coda. The source mechanisms are remarkably consistent between clusters and also fundamentally different to those of the VTs. We accurately locate LP clusters near each of three ice cauldrons (depressions formed by basal melting) that were observed on the surface of Dyngjujökull glacier above the path of the dyke. Most events are in the vicinity of the northernmost cauldron, at shallower depth than the VTs associated with lateral dyke propagation. At the two northerly cauldrons, periods of shallow seismic tremor following the clusters of LPs are also observed. Given that the LPs occur at ∼4 km depth and in swarms during times of dyke-stalling, we infer that they result from excitation of magmatic fluid-filled cavities and indicate magma ascent. We suggest that the tremor is the climax of the vertical melt movement, arising from either rapid, repeated excitation of the same LP cavities, or sub-glacial eruption processes. This long-period seismicity therefore represents magma pathways between the depth of the dyke-VT earthquakes and the surface. Notably, we do not detect tremor associated with each cauldron, despite melt reaching the base of the overlying ice cap, a concern for hazard monitoring.

Special Features In Turbulent Mixing. Comparison between Periodic and Non Periodic Case

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Mihai Costescu

2006-12-01

Full Text Available After hundreds of years of stability study, the problems of flow kinematics are far from complete solving. A modern theory appears in this field: the mixing theory. Its mathematical methods and techniques developed the significant relation between turbulence and chaos. The turbulence is an important feature of dynamic systems with few freedom degrees, the so-called far from equilibrium systems. These are widespread between the models of excitable media.Studying a mixing for a flow implies the analysis of successive stretching and folding phenomena for its particles, the influence of parameters and initial conditions. In the previous works, the study of the 3D non-periodic models exhibited a quite complicated behavior, involving some significant events - the so-called rare events. The variation of parameters had a great influence on the length and surface deformations. The 2D (periodic case is simpler, but significant events can also issue for irrational values of the length and surface versors, as was the situation in 3D case.The comparison between 2D and 3D case revealed interesting properties; therefore a modified 2D (periodic model is tested. The numerical simulations were realized in MapleVI, for searching special mathematical events. Continuing this work both from analytical and numeric standpoint would relieve useful properties for the turbulent mixing. A proximal target is to test some special functions for the periodic model, and to study the behavior of the structures realized by the model.

Quality of life and mortality assessment in patients with major cardiac events in the postoperative period.

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Abelha, Fernando José; Botelho, Miguela; Fernandes, Vera; Barros, Henrique

2010-01-01

Cardiovascular complications in the postoperative period are associated with high mortality and morbidity. Few studies have assessed the degree of dependence in these patients and their perception of health. The objective of this study was to assess the mortality and the quality of life in patients who developed major cardiac events (MCE) in the postoperative period. Retrospective study carried out in a Surgical Intensive Care Unit (SICU), between March 2006 and March 2008. The patients were assessed regarding the occurrence of CE. Six months after the hospital discharge, the Short-Form-36 (SF-36) questionnaire was filled out and dependence was assessed in relation to activities of daily living (ADL). The comparisons between independent groups of patients were carried out using Student's t test. The comparison between each variable and the occurrence of CE was carried out by logistic regression and included all patients. Of the 1,280 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 26 (2%) developed MCE. The univariate analysis identified as independent determinants for the development of major cardiac events: ASA physical status, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart disease and score of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). The six-month mortality after the SICU discharge was 35%. Of the 17 surviving patients, 13 completed the questionnaires. Thirty-one percent of them reported that their general health was better on the day they answered the questionnaire, when compared to 12 months before. Sixty-nine percent of the patients were dependent in instrumental ADL e 15% in personal ADL. The development of MCE has a significant impact on the duration of hospital stay and mortality rates. Six months after the discharge from the SICU, more than 50% of the patients were dependent in at least one instrumental ADL. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Global bioevents and the question of periodicity

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Sepkoski, J. John

The hypothesis of periodicity in extinction is an empirical claim that extinction events, while variable in magnitude, are regular in timing and therefore are serially dependent upon some single, ultimate cause with clocklike behavior. This hypothesis is controversal, in part because of questions regarding the identity and timing of certain extinction events and because of speculations concerning possible catastrophic extraterrestrial forcing mechanisms. New data on extinctions of marine animal genera are presented that display a high degree of periodicity in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic as well as a suggestion of nonstationary periodicity in the late Paleozoic. However, no periodicity is evident among the as yet poorly documented extinction events of the early and middle Paleozoic.

The language used in describing autobiographical memories prompted by life period visually presented verbal cues, event-specific visually presented verbal cues and short musical clips of popular music.

Science.gov (United States)

Zator, Krysten; Katz, Albert N

2017-07-01

Here, we examined linguistic differences in the reports of memories produced by three cueing methods. Two groups of young adults were cued visually either by words representing events or popular cultural phenomena that took place when they were 5, 10, or 16 years of age, or by words referencing a general lifetime period word cue directing them to that period in their life. A third group heard 30-second long musical clips of songs popular during the same three time periods. In each condition, participants typed a specific event memory evoked by the cue and these typed memories were subjected to analysis by the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) program. Differences in the reports produced indicated that listening to music evoked memories embodied in motor-perceptual systems more so than memories evoked by our word-cueing conditions. Additionally, relative to music cues, lifetime period word cues produced memories with reliably more uses of personal pronouns, past tense terms, and negative emotions. The findings provide evidence for the embodiment of autobiographical memories, and how those differ when the cues emphasise different aspects of the encoded events.

ICPP criticality event of October 17, 1978. Facts and sequential description of criticality event and precursor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

On October 17 during the period of approximately 8:15 to 8:40 p.m., a criticality event occurred in the base of IB column, H-100. The inventory of medium short-lived fission products used to determine the number of fissions indicates that the criticality occurred in column H-100 aqueous phase and the sampling of the column wall with counting of the filings clearly indicates that the event occurred in the column base. The events leading up to the accident are described. The event produced no personnel injury, on-or off-site contamination, nor damage to equipment or property

Increased accumulation of cuticular wax and expression of lipid transfer protein in response to periodic drying events in leaves of tree tobacco.

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Kimberly D; Teece, Mark A; Smart, Lawrence B

2006-01-01

Cuticular wax deposition and composition affects drought tolerance and yield in plants. We examined the relationship between wax and dehydration stress by characterizing the leaf cuticular wax of tree tobacco (Nicotiana glauca L. Graham) grown under periodic dehydration stress. Total leaf cuticular wax load increased after each of three periods of dehydration stress using a CH2Cl2 extraction process. Overall, total wax load increased 1.5- to 2.5-fold, but composition of the wax was not altered. Homologous series of wax components were classified into organic groups; n-hentriacontane was the largest component (>75%) with alcohols and fatty acids representing drying event. Leaves excised from plants subjected to multiple drying events were more resistant to water loss compared to leaves excised from well-watered plants, indicating that there is a negative relationship between total wax load and epidermal conductance. Lipid transfer proteins (LTPs) are thought to be involved in the transfer of lipids through the extracellular matrix for the formation of cuticular wax. Using northern analysis, a 6-fold increase of tree tobacco LTP gene transcripts was observed after three drying events, providing further evidence that LTP is involved in cuticle deposition. The simplicity of wax composition and the dramatic wax bloom displayed by tree tobacco make this an excellent species in which to study the relationship between leaf wax deposition and drought tolerance.

The Unconstrained Event Bulletin (UEB) for the IMS Seismic Network Spaning the Period May 15-28, 2010: a New Resource for Algorithm Development and Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Brogan, R.; Young, C. J.; Ballard, S.

2017-12-01

A major problem with developing new data processing algorithms for seismic event monitoring is the lack of standard, high-quality "ground-truth" data sets to test against. The unfortunate effect of this is that new algorithms are often developed and tested with new data sets, making comparison of algorithms difficult and subjective. In an effort towards resolving this problem, we have developed the Unconstrained Event Bulletin (UEB), a ground-truth data set from the International Monitoring System (IMS) primary and auxiliary seismic networks for a two-week period in May 2010. All UEB analysis was performed by the same expert, who has more than 30 years of experience analyzing seismic data for nuclear explosion monitoring. We used the most complete International Data Centre (IDC) analyst-review event bulletin (the Late Event Bulletin or LEB) as a starting point for this analysis. To make the UEB more complete, we relaxed the minimum event definite criteria to the level of a pair of P-type and an S-type phases at a single station and using azimuth/slowness as defining. To add even more events that our analyst recognized and didn't want to omit, in rare cases, events were constructed using only 1 P-phase. Perhaps most importantly, on average our analyst spent more than 60 hours per day of data, far more than was possible in the production of the LEB. The result of all this was that while the LEB had 2,101 LEB events for the 2-week time period, we ended up with 11,435 events in the UEB, an increase of over 400%. New events are located all over the world and include both earthquakes and manmade events such as mining explosions. Our intent is to make our UEB data set openly available for all researchers to use for testing detection, correlation, and location algorithms, thus making it much easier to objectively compare different research efforts. Acknowledgement: Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and

A Study on the Frequency of Initiating Event of OPR-1000 during Outage Periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong Jae Beol; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

These sources of data did not reflect the latest event data which have occurred during the PWR outage to the frequencies of initiating event Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI) in USA collected the data of loss of decay heat removal during outage from 1989 to 2009 and published technical report. Domestic operating experiences for LOOP is gathered in Operational Performance Information System for Nuclear Power Plant(OPIS). To reduce conservatism and obtain completeness for LPSD PSA, those data should be collected and used to update the frequencies. The frequencies of LOSDC and LOOP are reevaluated using the data of EPRI and OPIS in this paper. Quantification is conducted to recalculate core damage frequency(CDF), since the rate is changed. The results are discussed below. To make an accurate estimate of the initiating events of LPSD PSA, the event data were collected and the frequencies of initiating events were updated using Bayesian approach. CDF was evaluated through quantification. Δ CDF is -40% and the dominant contributor is pressurizer PSV stuck open event. The most of the event data in EPRI TR were collected from US nuclear power plant industry. Those data are not enough to evaluate outage risk precisely. Therefore, to reduce conservatism and obtain completeness for LPSD PSA, the licensee event report and domestic data should be collected and reflected to the frequencies of the initiating events during outage.

Characterization And State-Of-The-Art Modeling Of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Africa During The Historical Period

Science.gov (United States)

Gibba, P.; Sylla, M. B.

2015-12-01

The ability of the state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the mean spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation indices over Africa is evaluated. The ensembles of eight precipitation-based indices as defined by ETCCDI were extracted from seventeen CMIP5 GCMs and twelve CORDEX RCMs simulations based on absolute and percentile (95th) thresholds and computed from the 1975 to 2004 historical period. Daily precipitation indices calculated from GPCP and TRMM satellite-derived observation datasets during the period 1997 to 2012 and 1998 to 2011 respectively were also employed in this study for model validation. Results of spatial representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events (R1mm, CDD, CWD and R95p) highlight a generally good consistency between the two observations. Equally, in the regional analysis some similarities exist in their median and interquartile (25th and 75th percentile) spread especially for CDD, CWD and R95p for most regions. In the associated intensities (SDII, RX5day, R95 and R95ptot), results indicate large spatial differences between the two observational datasets, with finer resolution TRMM generating higher rainfall intensities than the coarser resolution GPCP. TRMM has also demonstrated higher median and interquartile range as compared to GPCP. The CORDEX RCMs and CMIP5 GCMs simulations have estimated more number of extreme precipitation events, while underestimated the intensities. The differences between the models and observations can be as large as the typical model interquartile spread of the ensembles for some indices (R1mm, CWD, SDII and R95) in some regions. Meanwhile, CORDEX estimations are generally closer to the observations than CMIP5 in reproducing the frequency of extreme rainfall indices. For the estimation of rainfall intensities, CORDEX simulations are in most cases more consistence with TRMM observations whilst the CMIP5 GCMs simulations are closer to GPCP observations.

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events

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J. Lohmann

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

2018-05-01

Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

Reminiscence bump in memory for public events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, S.M.J.; Murre, J.M.J.; Meeter, M.

2008-01-01

People tend to recall more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than from other lifetime periods. Most evidence suggests that differential encoding causes this reminiscence bump. However, the question why personal events are encoded better in those periods is still unanswered. To

A highly specific test for periodicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ansmann, Gerrit

2015-01-01

We present a method that allows to distinguish between nearly periodic and strictly periodic time series. To this purpose, we employ a conservative criterion for periodicity, namely, that the time series can be interpolated by a periodic function whose local extrema are also present in the time series. Our method is intended for the analysis of time series generated by deterministic time-continuous dynamical systems, where it can help telling periodic dynamics from chaotic or transient ones. We empirically investigate our method's performance and compare it to an approach based on marker events (or Poincaré sections). We demonstrate that our method is capable of detecting small deviations from periodicity and outperforms the marker-event-based approach in typical situations. Our method requires no adjustment of parameters to the individual time series, yields the period length with a precision that exceeds the sampling rate, and its runtime grows asymptotically linear with the length of the time series

A highly specific test for periodicity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ansmann, Gerrit, E-mail: gansmann@uni-bonn.de [Department of Epileptology, University of Bonn, Sigmund-Freud-Straße 25, 53105 Bonn (Germany); Helmholtz Institute for Radiation and Nuclear Physics, University of Bonn, Nussallee 14–16, 53115 Bonn (Germany); Interdisciplinary Center for Complex Systems, University of Bonn, Brühler Straße 7, 53175 Bonn (Germany)

2015-11-15

We present a method that allows to distinguish between nearly periodic and strictly periodic time series. To this purpose, we employ a conservative criterion for periodicity, namely, that the time series can be interpolated by a periodic function whose local extrema are also present in the time series. Our method is intended for the analysis of time series generated by deterministic time-continuous dynamical systems, where it can help telling periodic dynamics from chaotic or transient ones. We empirically investigate our method's performance and compare it to an approach based on marker events (or Poincaré sections). We demonstrate that our method is capable of detecting small deviations from periodicity and outperforms the marker-event-based approach in typical situations. Our method requires no adjustment of parameters to the individual time series, yields the period length with a precision that exceeds the sampling rate, and its runtime grows asymptotically linear with the length of the time series.

Damaging events along roads during bad weather periods: a case study in Calabria (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Petrucci, O.; Pasqua, A. A.

2012-02-01

The study focuses on circumstances that affect people during periods of bad weather conditions characterised by winds, rainfall, landslides, flooding, and storm surges. A methodological approach and its application to a study area in southern Italy are presented here. A 10-yr database was generated by mining data from a newspaper. Damaging agents were sorted into five types: flood, urban flooding, landslide, wind, and storm surge. Damage to people occurred in 126 cases, causing 13 victims, 129 injured and about 782 people involved but not injured. For cases of floods, urban flooding and landslides, the analysis does not highlight straightforward relationships between rainfall and damage to people, even if the events showed different features according to the months of occurrence. The events occurring between May and October were characterised by concentrated and intense rainfall, and between May and July, the highest values of hourly (103 mm on the average) and monthly rainfall (114 mm on the average) were recorded. Urban flooding and flash floods were the most common damaging agents: injured, involved people and more rarely, cases with victims were reported. Between November and April, the highest number of events was recorded. Rainfall presented longer durations and hourly and sub-hourly rainfall were lower than those recorded between May and October. Landslides were the most frequent damaging agents but the highest number of cases with victims, which occurred between November and January, were mainly related to floods and urban flooding. Motorists represent the totality of the victims; 84% of the people were injured and the whole of people involved. All victims were men, and the average age was 43 yr. The primary cause of death was drowning caused by floods, and the second was trauma suffered in car accidents caused by urban flooding. The high number of motorists rescued in submerged cars reveals an underestimation of danger in the case of floods, often

Study of adverse events following immunisation with universal and newer vaccines in the Serampore IMA Child Clinic over a period of 7 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Pradip Kumar

2013-04-01

Immunisation is an important part of childcare practice. It is one of the most beneficial and cost effective measures for the prevention of diseases. From the previous retrospective studies, it was evident that smallpox has been completely eradicated throughout now-a-days with the wholehearted and sincere efforts of healthcare providers by applying efficient and safe vaccine against smallpox, same is true also to polio which is now close to worldwide eradication and measles and rubella are no longer endemic in certain parts of the world. Not only has that with the introduction of safer and more efficient newer vaccines, the incidence of most other vaccine preventable disease of childhood also reduced considerably. The aim of the present study is to estimate the incidence and clinical presentation of adverse events following immunisation with universal and newer vaccines for a period of seven years using prospective active surveillance. Children under the age of 7 years were taken for universal and newer scheduled vaccinations given in the Serampore IMA Child Clinic under the supervision of the clinicians maintaining strictly the guidelines of Expanded Programme of Immunisation (Government of India). This study of adverse events following immunisation in the Serampore IMA Child Clinic confirms that the adverse events such as fever (0.37%), pain and swelling at the site of injection (0.32%0, urticarial rash (0.02%), anaphylactic shock (0.003%) are negligible. There were only two reports of anaphylaxis following preschool and infant schedule vaccines, including measles, mumps and rubella (MMR), Haemophilus influenzae type B vaccines and typhoid vaccines in approximately 52,000 infants received over a period of 7 years starting from 1st April, 2005 to 31st March, 2012 and there were no deaths or longterm effects reported during the post follow-up period in the Serampore IMA Child Clinic.

Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

2009-09-15

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

2009-01-01

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

Damaging events along roads during bad weather periods: a case study in Calabria (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Petrucci

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The study focuses on circumstances that affect people during periods of bad weather conditions characterised by winds, rainfall, landslides, flooding, and storm surges. A methodological approach and its application to a study area in southern Italy are presented here. A 10-yr database was generated by mining data from a newspaper. Damaging agents were sorted into five types: flood, urban flooding, landslide, wind, and storm surge. Damage to people occurred in 126 cases, causing 13 victims, 129 injured and about 782 people involved but not injured.

For cases of floods, urban flooding and landslides, the analysis does not highlight straightforward relationships between rainfall and damage to people, even if the events showed different features according to the months of occurrence. The events occurring between May and October were characterised by concentrated and intense rainfall, and between May and July, the highest values of hourly (103 mm on the average and monthly rainfall (114 mm on the average were recorded. Urban flooding and flash floods were the most common damaging agents: injured, involved people and more rarely, cases with victims were reported.

Between November and April, the highest number of events was recorded. Rainfall presented longer durations and hourly and sub-hourly rainfall were lower than those recorded between May and October. Landslides were the most frequent damaging agents but the highest number of cases with victims, which occurred between November and January, were mainly related to floods and urban flooding.

Motorists represent the totality of the victims; 84% of the people were injured and the whole of people involved. All victims were men, and the average age was 43 yr. The primary cause of death was drowning caused by floods, and the second was trauma suffered in car accidents caused by urban flooding. The high number of motorists rescued in submerged cars reveals an underestimation of

Accident sequence precursor events with age-related contributors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, G.A.; Kohn, W.E.

1995-12-31

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program at ORNL analyzed about 14.000 Licensee Event Reports (LERs) filed by US nuclear power plants 1987--1993. There were 193 events identified as precursors to potential severe core accident sequences. These are reported in G/CR-4674. Volumes 7 through 20. Under the NRC Nuclear Plant Aging Research program, the authors evaluated these events to determine the extent to which component aging played a role. Events were selected that involved age-related equipment degradation that initiated an event or contributed to an event sequence. For the 7-year period, ORNL identified 36 events that involved aging degradation as a contributor to an ASP event. Except for 1992, the percentage of age-related events within the total number of ASP events over the 7-year period ({approximately}19%) appears fairly consistent up to 1991. No correlation between plant ape and number of precursor events was found. A summary list of the age-related events is presented in the report.

Trending analysis of precursor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

1998-01-01

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program of United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) identifies and categorizes operational events at nuclear power plants in terms of the potential for core damage. The ASP analysis has been performed on yearly basis and the results have been published in the annual reports. This paper describes the trends in initiating events and dominant sequences for 459 precursors identified in the ASP Program during the 1969-94 period and also discusses a comparison with dominant sequences predicted in the past Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies. These trends were examined for three time periods, 1969-81, 1984-87 and 1988-94. Although the different models had been used in the ASP analyses for these three periods, the distribution of precursors by dominant sequences show similar trends to each other. For example, the sequences involving loss of both main and auxiliary feedwater were identified in many PWR events and those involving loss of both high and low coolant injection were found in many BWR events. Also, it was found that these dominant sequences were comparable to those determined to be dominant in the predictions by the past PRAs. As well, a list of the 459 precursors identified are provided in Appendix, indicating initiating event types, unavailable systems, dominant sequences, conditional core damage probabilities, and so on. (author)

Probability Estimates of Solar Particle Event Doses During a Period of Low Sunspot Number for Thinly-Shielded Spacecraft and Short Duration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

2016-01-01

In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.

Validating a mass balance accounting approach to using 7Be measurements to estimate event-based erosion rates over an extended period at the catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.; Cogliandro, Vanessa; Callegari, Giovanni

2016-07-01

Use of the fallout radionuclides cesium-137 and excess lead-210 offers important advantages over traditional methods of quantifying erosion and soil redistribution rates. However, both radionuclides provide information on longer-term (i.e., 50-100 years) average rates of soil redistribution. Beryllium-7, with its half-life of 53 days, can provide a basis for documenting short-term soil redistribution and it has been successfully employed in several studies. However, the approach commonly used introduces several important constraints related to the timing and duration of the study period. A new approach proposed by the authors that overcomes these constraints has been successfully validated using an erosion plot experiment undertaken in southern Italy. Here, a further validation exercise undertaken in a small (1.38 ha) catchment is reported. The catchment was instrumented to measure event sediment yields and beryllium-7 measurements were employed to document the net soil loss for a series of 13 events that occurred between November 2013 and June 2015. In the absence of significant sediment storage within the catchment's ephemeral channel system and of a significant contribution from channel erosion to the measured sediment yield, the estimates of net soil loss for the individual events could be directly compared with the measured sediment yields to validate the former. The close agreement of the two sets of values is seen as successfully validating the use of beryllium-7 measurements and the new approach to obtain estimates of net soil loss for a sequence of individual events occurring over an extended period at the scale of a small catchment.

Extreme Energy Events Monitoring report

CERN Document Server

Baimukhamedova, Nigina

2015-01-01

Following paper reflects the progress I made on Summer Student Program within Extreme Energy Events Monitor project I was working on. During 8 week period I managed to build a simple detector system that is capable of triggering events similar to explosions (sudden change in sound levels) and measuring approximate location of the event. Source codes are available upon request and settings described further.

Initiating events frequency determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

2004-01-01

The paper describes work performed for the Nuclear Power Station (NPS). Work is related to the periodic initiating events frequency update for the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). Data for all relevant NPS initiating events (IE) were reviewed. The main focus was on events occurring during most recent operating history (i.e., last four years). The final IE frequencies were estimated by incorporating both NPS experience and nuclear industry experience. Each event was categorized according to NPS individual plant examination (IPE) initiating events grouping approach. For the majority of the IE groups, few, or no events have occurred at the NPS. For those IE groups with few or no NPS events, the final estimate was made by means of a Bayesian update with general nuclear industry values. Exceptions are rare loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCA) events, where evaluation of engineering aspects is used in order to determine frequency.(author)

The significance of unforeseen events in organisational ethnographic inquiry

OpenAIRE

Green, Trevor; Swailes, Stephen; Handley, Janet

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance for the practicing ethnographer of responding to unforeseen events that occur during periods of data collection.\\ud Analysis of four unforeseen events occurring during prolonged periods of study amongst workplace cleaners is undertaken and the changes in researcher acceptance resulting from the outcomes of these events are reported.\\ud This article shows how awareness of the possible incidence of unforeseen events and the ability to car...

Depth of source from long period P-waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, Falguni

1986-01-01

Short period (SP) seismograms are much better than long period (LP) seismograms to get the time resolution needed for the focal depth estimation. However, complex scattering effects due to crustal inhomogeneities and also the multi-pathing of signals usually complicate the short period records. On the other hand the seismograms from long period signals demonstrate clear coherent body waves. Therefore, for intermediate depths (15-60 km) prediction error filtering of LP signals will be useful for identifying the depth phases. Such a study has been carried out in the first part of this report. In a group of 7 events, the p p phases have been extracted from LP signals and the depths so estimated compared well with the published data. For explosions at shallow depths (depth p phases will tend to cancel each other in LP seismograms. As the source depth increases, the cancellation becomes less effective. This feature can be used for the identification of an event as well as for getting an estimate of the source depth. This phenomenon can be successfully exploited for identifying multiple explosions, because at teleseismic distances (Δ > 30 o ) no LP (around 20s period) P waves will be seen in the seismogram due to such events whereas relatively strong SP signals and LP Rayleigh waves will be observed. This phenomenon has been studied for 16 events. For three of these events having m b as high as 6.1 and presumed to be underground explosions, one could not see any P wave on remaining 13 events (which were classified as earthquakes), it was possible to set a threshold value of m b above which an earthquake should produce LP P-wave signals at a given distance. (author)

Late Eocene impact events recorded in deep-sea sediments

Science.gov (United States)

Glass, B. P.

1988-01-01

Raup and Sepkoski proposed that mass extinctions have occurred every 26 Myr during the last 250 Myr. In order to explain this 26 Myr periodicity, it was proposed that the mass extinctions were caused by periodic increases in cometary impacts. One method to test this hypothesis is to determine if there were periodic increases in impact events (based on crater ages) that correlate with mass extinctions. A way to test the hypothesis that mass extinctions were caused by periodic increases in impact cratering is to look for evidence of impact events in deep-sea deposits. This method allows direct observation of the temporal relationship between impact events and extinctions as recorded in the sedimentary record. There is evidence in the deep-sea record for two (possibly three) impact events in the late Eocene. The younger event, represented by the North American microtektite layer, is not associated with an Ir anomaly. The older event, defined by the cpx spherule layer, is associated with an Ir anomaly. However, neither of the two impact events recorded in late Eocene deposits appears to be associated with an unusual number of extinctions. Thus there is little evidence in the deep-sea record for an impact-related mass extinction in the late Eocene.

Screening and evaluation of First Half 1980 licensee event reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waage, J.M.

1981-05-01

This program was established to identify those events which contain important operating experience and to communicate the insights gained from evaluation of such events to other plant owners and operators. This report represents a summary of that work for the LERs produced during roughly the first half of 1980. It discusses events of major significance reported during that period and summarizes those events which were identified as important. Several generic problem areas are discussed. Six major significant events took place during this period

RETRIEVAL EVENTS EVALUATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, T.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate impacts to the retrieval concept presented in the Design Analysis ''Retrieval Equipment and Strategy'' (Reference 6), from abnormal events based on Design Basis Events (DBE) and Beyond Design Basis Events (BDBE) as defined in two recent analyses: (1) DBE/Scenario Analysis for Preclosure Repository Subsurface Facilities (Reference 4); and (2) Preliminary Preclosure Design Basis Event Calculations for the Monitored Geologic Repository (Reference 5) The objective of this task is to determine what impacts the DBEs and BDBEs have on the equipment developed for retrieval. The analysis lists potential impacts and recommends changes to be analyzed in subsequent design analyses for developed equipment, or recommend where additional equipment may be needed, to allow retrieval to be performed in all DBE or BDBE situations. This analysis supports License Application design and therefore complies with the requirements of Systems Description Document input criteria comparison as presented in Section 7, Conclusions. In addition, the analysis discusses the impacts associated with not using concrete inverts in the emplacement drifts. The ''Retrieval Equipment and Strategy'' analysis was based on a concrete invert configuration in the emplacement drift. The scope of the analysis, as presented in ''Development Plan for Retrieval Events Evaluation'' (Reference 3) includes evaluation and criteria of the following: Impacts to retrieval from the emplacement drift based on DBE/BDBEs, and changes to the invert configuration for the preclosure period. Impacts to retrieval from the main drifts based on DBE/BDBEs for the preclosure period

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svoboda Vojtěch

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Corbella

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

Events occurring during the previous lactation, the dry period, and peripartum as risk factors for early lactation mastitis in cows receiving 2 different intramammary dry cow therapies.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinedo, P J; Fleming, C; Risco, C A

2012-12-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the association between mastitis events occurring during the previous lactation, the dry period, and the peripartum period on the incidence of early lactation mastitis in cows receiving ceftiofur hydrochloride or penicillin dihydrostreptomycin as intramammary dry cow antibiotic therapy. Cows (n=402) from 2 large dairy farms in Central Florida were enrolled in the study at the time of dry-off processing and were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 dry cow therapies: ceftiofur hydrochloride or penicillin dihydrostreptomycin. Composite milk samples were collected at dry-off and after calving for bacteriological examination and somatic cell count. Peripartal health disorders were monitored during the first 30 d of lactation and included calving difficulty, metritis, ketosis, and left displaced abomasum. Milk production and individual somatic cell scores (SCS) were recorded monthly by the Dairy Herd Improvement Association. The main outcome variables were the risk of clinical mastitis during the first 30 and 60 d of lactation, and the risk of subclinical mastitis at the first 2 monthly Dairy Herd Improvement Association tests after calving (up to 70 d in milk). Additionally, the SCS and the presence of mastitis pathogens in milk at dry-off and at calving were analyzed. Explanatory variables consisted of events occurring during the previous lactation, at dry-off and during the dry period, at calving, and within the first 30 d after calving. Multiple events occurring during the previous lactation had a significant effect on the incidence of mastitis in the subsequent lactation. These events included low milk yield, intermediate lactation length, clinical mastitis, and lactation SCS average. Similarly, intramammary infections with environmental bacteria at dry-off increased the chances of clinical mastitis the first month after calving. Dry-off therapy had a significant effect on mastitis incidence; cows treated with ceftiofur

Events and Effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rytter, Mikkel

2010-01-01

Analyzing the period of ‘intensive transnationalism’ among Pakistani migrants in Denmark precipitated by the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, this article explores the relationship between events and effects on a global scale. One significant initiative after the disaster was the founding of an ad hoc......, and national identity politics in Denmark. Despite the medical doctors’ efforts and intentions, the out- come was framed by 9/11, which has become the major critical event of the decade—one that has supported a developing cleavage between the Danish majority and Denmark’s Muslim immigrant minority....

Event-Related Potentials (ERPs) in Second Language Research: A Brief Introduction to the Technique, a Selected Review, and an Invitation to Reconsider Critical Periods in L2

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhauer, Karsten

2014-01-01

This article provides a selective overview of recent event-related brain potential (ERP) studies in L2 morpho-syntax, demonstrating that the ERP evidence supporting the critical period hypothesis (CPH) may be less compelling than previously thought. The article starts with a general introduction to ERP methodology and language-related ERP profiles…

A periodic inspection and replacement policy for systems subject to competing failure modes due to degradation and traumatic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huynh, K.T., E-mail: tuan.huynh@utt.f [Universite de technologie de Troyes, Institut Charles Delaunay and STMR UMR CNRS 6279-12, rue Marie Curie, BP2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, A., E-mail: anne.barros@utt.f [Universite de technologie de Troyes, Institut Charles Delaunay and STMR UMR CNRS 6279-12, rue Marie Curie, BP2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Berenguer, C., E-mail: christophe.berenguer@utt.f [Universite de technologie de Troyes, Institut Charles Delaunay and STMR UMR CNRS 6279-12, rue Marie Curie, BP2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Castro, I.T., E-mail: inmatorres@unex.e [Departamento de Matematicas, Escuela Politecnica, 10071 Caceres (Spain)

2011-04-15

This paper deals with the condition-based maintenance of single-unit systems which are subject to the competing and dependent failures due deterioration and traumatic shock events. The main aim is to provide a model to assess the value of condition monitoring information for the maintenance decision-making. A condition-based periodic inspection/replacement policy is developed and compared with a benchmark time-based block replacement policy. Numerical results show that it is indeed useful to follow closely the actual evolution of the system to adapt the maintenance decisions to the true system state to improve the performance of maintenance policies. The analysis of the maintenance costs savings can be used to justify or not the choice to implement a policy based on condition monitoring information and to invest in condition monitoring devices.

A periodic inspection and replacement policy for systems subject to competing failure modes due to degradation and traumatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huynh, K.T.; Barros, A.; Berenguer, C.; Castro, I.T.

2011-01-01

This paper deals with the condition-based maintenance of single-unit systems which are subject to the competing and dependent failures due deterioration and traumatic shock events. The main aim is to provide a model to assess the value of condition monitoring information for the maintenance decision-making. A condition-based periodic inspection/replacement policy is developed and compared with a benchmark time-based block replacement policy. Numerical results show that it is indeed useful to follow closely the actual evolution of the system to adapt the maintenance decisions to the true system state to improve the performance of maintenance policies. The analysis of the maintenance costs savings can be used to justify or not the choice to implement a policy based on condition monitoring information and to invest in condition monitoring devices.

A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

2017-12-01

Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA

Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness...

What happens when we compare the lifespan distributions of life script events and autobiographical memories of life story events? A cross-cultural study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

Cultural Life Script Theory (Berntsen and Rubin, 2004), provides a cultural explanation of the reminiscence bump: adults older than 40 years remember a significantly greater amount of life events happening between 15 - 30 years of age (Rubin, Rahal, & Poon, 1998), compared to other lifetime periods...... and memories of life story events, we can determine the degree to which the cultural life script serves as a recall template for autobiographical memories, especially of positive life events from adolescence and early adulthood, also known as the reminiscence bump period....

Review of events occurring during the transport of radioactive material for the period 1984-1993. A report on the IAEA's EVTRAM database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

In 1988 the International Atomic Energy Agency initiated data collecting activities for accidents and incidents (EVTRAM), shipments (SHIPTRAM) and radiation exposure (EXTRAM) in connection with radioactive material transport. This publication reports on the data made available for the EVTRAM database by ten Member States regarding events occurring during the transport of radioactive material during the period 1984-1993. The main objectives of the EVATRAM database are to provide information to support evaluations of the effectiveness of the IAEA's Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material and provide a means of information exchange for any lessons learned. Member States providing data do so on a voluntary basis an report only those events that involve the safety features of packages being transported. The tables presented in this report are based solely on the data provided regarding 128 valid cases. Where it is meaningful to relate frequency tables this has been done in the section containing cross-tabulations; otherwise, the frequency tables are to be considered individually. Because it is neither complete nor comprehensive the data has severely limited uses for establishing trends or drawing conclusions. The statistical analyses performed are to be considered only in this light. Neither the data nor the tables may be cited as the basis for general, conclusive statements about radioactive material transport events. 4 refs, 5 tabs

Periodic instantons and scattering amplitudes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khlebnikov, S.Yu.; Rubakov, V.A.; Tinyakov, P.G.

1991-04-01

We discuss the role of periodic euclidean solutions with two turning points and zero winding number (periodic instantons) in instanton induced processes below the sphaleron energy E sph . We find that the periodic instantons describe certain multiparticle scattering events leading to the transitions between topologically distinct vacua. Both the semiclassical amplitudes and inital and final states of these transitions are determined by the periodic instantons. Furthermore, the corresponding probabilities are maximal among all states of given energy. We show that at E ≤ E sph , the periodic instantons can be approximated by infinite chains of ordinary instantons and anti-instantons, and they naturally emerge as deformations of the zero energy instanton. In the framework of 2d abelian Higgs model and 4d electroweak theory we show, however, that there is not obvious relation between periodic instantons and two-particle scattering amplitudes. (orig.)

Changes in "hotter and wetter" events across China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, C.; Deng, H.; Lu, Y.; Qiu, X.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

As global warming intensifies, efforts to understand the changes in extreme climate events have increased in recent years. A combined analysis of the changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events is presented in this paper. Using observational data from 1961 to 2015, a set of hotter and wetter (HW) events is defined, and we examine the changes in these events across China. The results show that more HW events occur in Central and Eastern China than in other subregions, especially in South China (SC). The rate of increase in HW events is 2.7 and 1.9 per decade in SC and East China (EC), respectively. In China, most HW events occurred in the last 20 years of the study period, indicating that China entered a period of high-frequency HW events. Indeed, the range in anomalies in the torrential rain days is greater than that of the high-temperature days in Northwest China (NWC), Central China (CC), and EC after the mid- to late 1990s. The opposite pattern is found in Northeast China (NEC), Southwest China-region 1 (SWC1), Southwest China-region 2 (SWC2), and SC. Finally, the increase in HW events in most regions of China is closely associated with warming.

INES: The International Nuclear Event Scale. User's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-08-01

The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is being introduced for a trial period, the primary purpose being to facilitate communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public on such events. The scale runs from zero, for events with no safety significance, to seven for a major accident. The scale has been circulated to Member States of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and it is presently anticipated that the trial period will last until late 1991. Provision has been made for the scale to be refined thereafter in the light of experience. It is designed as an important tool in providing prompt, clear and consistent information on nuclear events wherever and whenever they may occur. 2 figs, 2 tabs

What happens when we compare the lifespan distributions of life script events and autobiographical memories of life story events? A cross-cultural study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

Cultural Life Script Theory (Berntsen and Rubin, 2004), provides a cultural explanation of the reminiscence bump: adults older than 40 years remember a significantly greater amount of life events happening between 15 - 30 years of age (Rubin, Rahal, & Poon, 1998), compared to other lifetime periods....... Most of these memories are rated as emotionally positive (Rubin & Berntsen, 2003). The cultural life script represents culturally shared expectations about the order and timing of life events in an typical, idealised life course. By comparing the lifespan distribution of the life scripts events...... and memories of life story events, we can determine the degree to which the cultural life script serves as a recall template for autobiographical memories, especially of positive life events from adolescence and early adulthood, also known as the reminiscence bump period....

7 CFR 1.603 - How are time periods computed?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How are time periods computed? 1.603 Section 1.603... Licenses General Provisions § 1.603 How are time periods computed? (a) General. Time periods are computed as follows: (1) The day of the act or event from which the period begins to run is not included. (2...

Confusion in the Periodic Table of the Elements.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernelius, W. C.; Powell, W. H.

1982-01-01

Discusses long (expanded), short (condensed), and pyramidal periodic table formats and documents events leading to a periodic table in which subgroups (families) are designated with the letters A and B, suggesting that this format is confusing for those consulting the table. (JN)

Pediatric emergency department census during major sporting events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tommy Y; Barcega, Besh B; Denmark, T Kent

2012-11-01

Our study attempted to evaluate the effects of major sporting events on the census of a pediatric emergency department (ED) in the United States specifically related to the National Football League Super Bowl, National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals, and Major League Baseball World Series. We performed a retrospective data analysis of our pediatric ED census on the number of visits during major sporting events over a 5-year period. Data during the same period 1 week after the major sporting event were collected for comparison as the control. We evaluated the medians of 2-hour increments around the event start time. Subgroup analysis was performed for games involving the local sporting teams. Our results showed no significant difference in ED census during the sporting events, except in the post 6 to 8 hours of the NBA finals. Subgroup analysis of the Los Angeles Lakers showed the same significant findings in the post 6 to 8 hours of the NBA finals. No major difference in pediatric ED census is observed during the most major sporting events in the United States.

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Flueckiger, J.; Knutti, R.; White, J.W.C.; Renssen, H.

2008-01-01

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model

Review of nuclear air treatment system related License Event Reports for the period 1985 - 1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacox, J.W.

1989-01-01

This paper will continue the review of HVAC/NATS related LERS presented at past Air Cleaning Conferences by Dr. D. W. Moeller and his associates. The general approach and format are similar. LER abstracts from mid 1985 through 1987 were reviewed and those related to HVAC/NATS classified and analyzed. The categories were jointly developed by Dr. Moeller, Dr. Casper Sun and myself. In appropriate cases both primary and secondary categories fora problem are given. A basic listing by category and brief statistical review are presented. Additionally a number of categories are discussed in some detail. The categories chosen for specific review are intended to highlight particular problem areas. NUREG/CR-2000 License Event Report (LER) Compilation is the basis for the initial review and coding. In essentially all cases where an LER is classified as of interest the complete LER was obtained and reviewed in full. The intent of this paper is to provide a basis for the industry to document and analyze problem areas that require additional attention. It appears that about 15% of all LERS in the subject period are HVAC/NATS related. This figure is generally consistent with those reported at the 17th DOE Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference. It is hoped that such attention will allow additional resources to be allocated to upgrade systems, procedures and training as well as in some cases government regulation

Attendance at cultural events, reading books or periodicals, and making music or singing in a choir as determinants for survival: Swedish interview survey of living conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bygren, L O; Konlaan, B B; Johansson, S E

To investigate the possible influence of attendance at cultural events, reading books or periodicals, making music or singing in a choir as determinants for survival. A simple random sample was drawn of 15,198 individuals aged 16-74 years. Of these, 85% (12,982) were interviewed by trained non-medical interviewers between 1982 and 1983 about cultural activities. They were followed up with respect to survival until 31 December 1991. Swedish interview survey of living conditions comprising a random sample of the adult Swedish population. 12,675 people interviewed between 1982 and 1983. Survival of subjects after controlling for eight confounding variables: age, sex, education level, income, long term disease, social network, smoking, and physical exercise. 6,301 men and 6,374 women were followed up; 533 men and 314 women died during this period. The control variables influenced survival in the expected directions except for social network for men; a significant negative effective was found when the analysis was made separately for men and women. We found an influence on mortality when the eight control variables were controlled for in people who rarely attended events compared with those attending most often, the relative risk being 1.57 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.09). Attendance at cultural events may have a positive influence on survival. Long term follow up of large samples with confounders that are well controlled for and with the cultural stimulation more highly specified should be used to try to falsify the hypothesis before experiments start.

[Effect of antecedent dry weather period on urban storm runoff pollution load].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Li-qing; Yin, Cheng-qing; Kong, Ling-li; He, Qing-ci

2007-10-01

Twelve storm events were surveyed at Shilipu catchment in Wuhan City through three-year monitoring regime. The flow discharges, total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in runoff were measured to study the mechanism of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The relationship between the event pollution load and the antecedent dry weather period was identified to discuss the influence of the urban surface sanitation management, operation of sewer pipe maintenance and rainfall characteristics on the urban stormwater runoff pollution. It was found that the antecedent dry weather period and runoff amount were the important determining factors in the generation of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The event pollution load was positively correlated to the antecedent dry weather period between two rainfall events (R2 = 0.95, p pollution loads. The best regression equation to estimate pollution load for storm events was developed based on the antecedent dry weather period and runoff depth. Source control including improving urban street sweeping activities and operation of sewer pipe maintenance should be made to reduce the amount of available pollutant over the dry days. It is important alternative to control urban stormwater runoff pollution for Hanyang District.

Finding the Correspondence of Audio-Visual Events by Object Manipulation

Science.gov (United States)

Nishibori, Kento; Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Matsumoto, Tetsuya; Kudo, Hiroaki; Ohnishi, Noboru

A human being understands the objects in the environment by integrating information obtained by the senses of sight, hearing and touch. In this integration, active manipulation of objects plays an important role. We propose a method for finding the correspondence of audio-visual events by manipulating an object. The method uses the general grouping rules in Gestalt psychology, i.e. “simultaneity” and “similarity” among motion command, sound onsets and motion of the object in images. In experiments, we used a microphone, a camera, and a robot which has a hand manipulator. The robot grasps an object like a bell and shakes it or grasps an object like a stick and beat a drum in a periodic, or non-periodic motion. Then the object emits periodical/non-periodical events. To create more realistic scenario, we put other event source (a metronome) in the environment. As a result, we had a success rate of 73.8 percent in finding the correspondence between audio-visual events (afferent signal) which are relating to robot motion (efferent signal).

Flight attendant radiation dose from solar particle events.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Jeri L; Mertens, Christopher J; Grajewski, Barbara; Luo, Lian; Tseng, Chih-Yu; Cassinelli, Rick T

2014-08-01

Research has suggested that work as a flight attendant may be related to increased risk for reproductive health effects. Air cabin exposures that may influence reproductive health include radiation dose from galactic cosmic radiation and solar particle events. This paper describes the assessment of radiation dose accrued during solar particle events as part of a reproductive health study of flight attendants. Solar storm data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center list of solar proton events affecting the Earth environment to ascertain storms relevant to the two study periods (1992-1996 and 1999-2001). Radiation dose from exposure to solar energetic particles was estimated using the NAIRAS model in conjunction with galactic cosmic radiation dose calculated using the CARI-6P computer program. Seven solar particle events were determined to have potential for significant radiation exposure, two in the first study period and five in the second study period, and over-lapped with 24,807 flight segments. Absorbed (and effective) flight segment doses averaged 6.5 μGy (18 μSv) and 3.1 μGy (8.3 μSv) for the first and second study periods, respectively. Maximum doses were as high as 440 μGy (1.2 mSv) and 20 flight segments had doses greater than 190 μGy (0.5 mSv). During solar particle events, a pregnant flight attendant could potentially exceed the equivalent dose limit to the conceptus of 0.5 mSv in a month recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

A computer aided treatment event recognition system in radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia, Junyi; Mart, Christopher; Bayouth, John

2014-01-01

Purpose: To develop an automated system to safeguard radiation therapy treatments by analyzing electronic treatment records and reporting treatment events. Methods: CATERS (Computer Aided Treatment Event Recognition System) was developed to detect treatment events by retrieving and analyzing electronic treatment records. CATERS is designed to make the treatment monitoring process more efficient by automating the search of the electronic record for possible deviations from physician's intention, such as logical inconsistencies as well as aberrant treatment parameters (e.g., beam energy, dose, table position, prescription change, treatment overrides, etc). Over a 5 month period (July 2012–November 2012), physicists were assisted by the CATERS software in conducting normal weekly chart checks with the aims of (a) determining the relative frequency of particular events in the authors’ clinic and (b) incorporating these checks into the CATERS. During this study period, 491 patients were treated at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics for a total of 7692 fractions. Results: All treatment records from the 5 month analysis period were evaluated using all the checks incorporated into CATERS after the training period. About 553 events were detected as being exceptions, although none of them had significant dosimetric impact on patient treatments. These events included every known event type that was discovered during the trial period. A frequency analysis of the events showed that the top three types of detected events were couch position override (3.2%), extra cone beam imaging (1.85%), and significant couch position deviation (1.31%). The significant couch deviation is defined as the number of treatments where couch vertical exceeded two times standard deviation of all couch verticals, or couch lateral/longitudinal exceeded three times standard deviation of all couch laterals and longitudinals. On average, the application takes about 1 s per patient when

A computer aided treatment event recognition system in radiation therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xia, Junyi, E-mail: junyi-xia@uiowa.edu; Mart, Christopher [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, 200 Hawkins Drive, Iowa City, Iowa 52242 (United States); Bayouth, John [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, 200 Hawkins Drive, Iowa City, Iowa 52242 and Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin - Madison, 600 Highland Avenue, K4/B55, Madison, Wisconsin 53792-0600 (United States)

2014-01-15

Purpose: To develop an automated system to safeguard radiation therapy treatments by analyzing electronic treatment records and reporting treatment events. Methods: CATERS (Computer Aided Treatment Event Recognition System) was developed to detect treatment events by retrieving and analyzing electronic treatment records. CATERS is designed to make the treatment monitoring process more efficient by automating the search of the electronic record for possible deviations from physician's intention, such as logical inconsistencies as well as aberrant treatment parameters (e.g., beam energy, dose, table position, prescription change, treatment overrides, etc). Over a 5 month period (July 2012–November 2012), physicists were assisted by the CATERS software in conducting normal weekly chart checks with the aims of (a) determining the relative frequency of particular events in the authors’ clinic and (b) incorporating these checks into the CATERS. During this study period, 491 patients were treated at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics for a total of 7692 fractions. Results: All treatment records from the 5 month analysis period were evaluated using all the checks incorporated into CATERS after the training period. About 553 events were detected as being exceptions, although none of them had significant dosimetric impact on patient treatments. These events included every known event type that was discovered during the trial period. A frequency analysis of the events showed that the top three types of detected events were couch position override (3.2%), extra cone beam imaging (1.85%), and significant couch position deviation (1.31%). The significant couch deviation is defined as the number of treatments where couch vertical exceeded two times standard deviation of all couch verticals, or couch lateral/longitudinal exceeded three times standard deviation of all couch laterals and longitudinals. On average, the application takes about 1 s per patient when

50 CFR 221.3 - How are time periods computed?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false How are time periods computed? 221.3... Provisions § 221.3 How are time periods computed? (a) General. Time periods are computed as follows: (1) The day of the act or event from which the period begins to run is not included. (2) The last day of the...

Comparative evaluation of recent water hammer events in light water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

House, R.K.; Sursock, J.P.; Kim, J.H.

1987-01-01

Water hammer events that occurred in commercial U.S. light water reactors in the five-year period from 1981 to 1985 were surveyed, and a preliminary evaluation of the events was conducted. The information developed supplements a previous study which evaluated water hammer events in the twelve-year period from 1969 to 1981. The current study of water hammer events in the 1980's confirms that the rate of events remains relatively constant (less than 0.25 events per plant year) in both PWRs and BWRs. Although water hammer events are not normally considered a safety issue, the economic impact of the events on plant operations can be significant. One particular severe water hammer event is estimated to have cost the plant owner $10 million for repair and evaluation alone. A variety of key characteristics of the recent water hammer events are summarized to establish a basis for further study of preventative methods

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two

One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

Science.gov (United States)

Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2015-10-01

One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

Asynchronous sampled-data approach for event-triggered systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Magdi S.; Memon, Azhar M.

2017-11-01

While aperiodically triggered network control systems save a considerable amount of communication bandwidth, they also pose challenges such as coupling between control and event-condition design, optimisation of the available resources such as control, communication and computation power, and time-delays due to computation and communication network. With this motivation, the paper presents separate designs of control and event-triggering mechanism, thus simplifying the overall analysis, asynchronous linear quadratic Gaussian controller which tackles delays and aperiodic nature of transmissions, and a novel event mechanism which compares the cost of the aperiodic system against a reference periodic implementation. The proposed scheme is simulated on a linearised wind turbine model for pitch angle control and the results show significant improvement against the periodic counterpart.

Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

2012-01-01

In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

Spatial coherence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods across Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Merz, Bruno; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Apel, Heiko; Gerlitz, Lars; Schröter, Kai; Steirou, Eva; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2018-04-01

Despite its societal relevance, the question whether fluctuations in flood occurrence or magnitude are coherent in space has hardly been addressed in quantitative terms. We investigate this question for Germany by analysing fluctuations in annual maximum series (AMS) values at 68 discharge gauges for the common time period 1932-2005. We find remarkable spatial coherence across Germany given its different flood regimes. For example, there is a tendency that flood-rich/-poor years in sub-catchments of the Rhine basin, which are dominated by winter floods, coincide with flood-rich/-poor years in the southern sub-catchments of the Danube basin, which have their dominant flood season in summer. Our findings indicate that coherence is caused rather by persistence in catchment wetness than by persistent periods of higher/lower event precipitation. Further, we propose to differentiate between event-type and non-event-type coherence. There are quite a number of hydrological years with considerable non-event-type coherence, i.e. AMS values of the 68 gauges are spread out through the year but in the same magnitude range. Years with extreme flooding tend to be of event-type and non-coherent, i.e. there is at least one precipitation event that affects many catchments to various degree. Although spatial coherence is a remarkable phenomenon, and large-scale flooding across Germany can lead to severe situations, extreme magnitudes across the whole country within one event or within one year were not observed in the investigated period.

Serious adverse events with infliximab: analysis of spontaneously reported adverse events.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Richard A; Gartlehner, Gerald; Powell, Gregory E; Sandler, Robert S

2007-06-01

Serious adverse events such as bowel obstruction, heart failure, infection, lymphoma, and neuropathy have been reported with infliximab. The aims of this study were to explore adverse event signals with infliximab by using a long period of post-marketing experience, stratifying by indication. The relative reporting of infliximab adverse events to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was assessed with the public release version of the adverse event reporting system (AERS) database from 1968 to third quarter 2005. On the basis of a systematic review of adverse events, Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) terms were mapped to predefined categories of adverse events, including death, heart failure, hepatitis, infection, infusion reaction, lymphoma, myelosuppression, neuropathy, and obstruction. Disproportionality analysis was used to calculate the empiric Bayes geometric mean (EBGM) and corresponding 90% confidence intervals (EB05, EB95) for adverse event categories. Infliximab was identified as the suspect medication in 18,220 reports in the FDA AERS database. We identified a signal for lymphoma (EB05 = 6.9), neuropathy (EB05 = 3.8), infection (EB05 = 2.9), and bowel obstruction (EB05 = 2.8). The signal for granulomatous infections was stronger than the signal for non-granulomatous infections (EB05 = 12.6 and 2.4, respectively). The signals for bowel obstruction and infusion reaction were specific to patients with IBD; this suggests potential confounding by indication, especially for bowel obstruction. In light of this additional evidence of risk of lymphoma, neuropathy, and granulomatous infections, clinicians should stress this risk in the shared decision-making process.

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Glaciological parameters of disruptive event analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bull, C.

1979-01-01

The following disruptive events caused by ice sheets are considered: continental glaciation, erosion, loading and subsidence, deep ground water recharge, flood erosion, isostatic rebound rates, melting, and periodicity of ice ages

Electron–Ion Intensity Dropouts in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Lun C.

2017-01-01

Since the field-line mixing model of Giacalone et al. suggests that ion dropouts cannot happen in the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event because of the large size of the particle source region in the event, the observational evidence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event should challenge the model. We have searched for the presence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event during solar cycle 23. From 10 SEP events the synchronized occurrence of ion and electron dropouts is identified in 12 periods. Our main observational facts, including the mean width of electron–ion dropout periods being consistent with the solar wind correlation scale, during the dropout period the dominance of the slab turbulence component and the enhanced turbulence power parallel to the mean magnetic field, and the ion gyroradius dependence of the edge steepness in dropout periods, are all in support of the solar wind turbulence origin of dropout events. Also, our observation indicates that a wide longitude distribution of SEP events could be due to the increase of slab turbulence fraction with the increased longitude distance from the flare-associated active region.

Electron-Ion Intensity Dropouts in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Lun C.

2017-09-01

Since the field-line mixing model of Giacalone et al. suggests that ion dropouts cannot happen in the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event because of the large size of the particle source region in the event, the observational evidence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event should challenge the model. We have searched for the presence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event during solar cycle 23. From 10 SEP events the synchronized occurrence of ion and electron dropouts is identified in 12 periods. Our main observational facts, including the mean width of electron-ion dropout periods being consistent with the solar wind correlation scale, during the dropout period the dominance of the slab turbulence component and the enhanced turbulence power parallel to the mean magnetic field, and the ion gyroradius dependence of the edge steepness in dropout periods, are all in support of the solar wind turbulence origin of dropout events. Also, our observation indicates that a wide longitude distribution of SEP events could be due to the increase of slab turbulence fraction with the increased longitude distance from the flare-associated active region.

Electron–Ion Intensity Dropouts in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tan, Lun C., E-mail: ltan@umd.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2017-09-01

Since the field-line mixing model of Giacalone et al. suggests that ion dropouts cannot happen in the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event because of the large size of the particle source region in the event, the observational evidence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event should challenge the model. We have searched for the presence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event during solar cycle 23. From 10 SEP events the synchronized occurrence of ion and electron dropouts is identified in 12 periods. Our main observational facts, including the mean width of electron–ion dropout periods being consistent with the solar wind correlation scale, during the dropout period the dominance of the slab turbulence component and the enhanced turbulence power parallel to the mean magnetic field, and the ion gyroradius dependence of the edge steepness in dropout periods, are all in support of the solar wind turbulence origin of dropout events. Also, our observation indicates that a wide longitude distribution of SEP events could be due to the increase of slab turbulence fraction with the increased longitude distance from the flare-associated active region.

[Adverse events management. Methods and results of a development project].

Science.gov (United States)

Rabøl, Louise Isager; Jensen, Elisabeth Brøgger; Hellebek, Annemarie H; Pedersen, Beth Lilja

2006-11-27

This article describes the methods and results of a project in the Copenhagen Hospital Corporation (H:S) on preventing adverse events. The aim of the project was to raise awareness about patients' safety, test a reporting system for adverse events, develop and test methods of analysis of events and propagate ideas about how to prevent adverse events. H:S developed an action plan and a reporting system for adverse events, founded an organization and developed an educational program on theories and methods of learning from adverse events for both leaders and employees. During the three-year period from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2004, the H:S staff reported 6011 adverse events. In the same period, the organization completed 92 root cause analyses. More than half of these dealt with events that had been optional to report, the other half events that had been mandatory to report. The number of reports and the front-line staff's attitude towards reporting shows that the H:S succeeded in founding a safety culture. Future work should be centred on developing and testing methods that will prevent adverse events from happening. The objective is to suggest and complete preventive initiatives which will help increase patient safety.

The rise and fall of periodic 'drumbeat' seismicity at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Andrew F.; Hernandez, Stephen; Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario; Sierra, Daniel; Aguaiza, Santiago

2017-10-01

Highly periodic 'drumbeat' long period (LP) earthquakes have been described from several andesitic and dacitic volcanoes, commonly accompanying incremental ascent and effusion of viscous magma. However, the processes controlling the occurrence and characteristics of drumbeat, and LP earthquakes more generally, remain contested. Here we use new quantitative tools to describe the emergence, evolution, and degradation of drumbeat LP seismicity at the andesitic Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, in April 2015. The signals were recorded during an episode of minor explosive activity and ash emission, without lava effusion, and are the first to be reported at Tungurahua during the ongoing 17 yrs of eruption. Following four days of high levels of continuous and 'pulsed' tremor, highly-periodic LP earthquakes first appear on 10 April. Over the next four days, inter-event times and event amplitudes evolve through a series of step-wise transitions between stable behaviors, each involving a decrease in the degree of periodicity. Families of similar waveforms persist before, during, and after drumbeat activity, but the activity levels of different families change coincidentally with transitions in event rate, amplitude, and periodicity. A complex micro-seismicity 'initiation' sequence shows pulse-like and stepwise changes in inter-event times and amplitudes in the hours preceding the onset of drumbeat activity that indicate a partial de-coupling between event size and rate. The observations increase the phenomenology of drumbeat LP earthquakes, and suggest that at Tungurahua they result from gas flux and rapid depressurization controlled by shear failure of the margins of the ascending magma column.

Generalized Detectability for Discrete Event Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Shaolong; Lin, Feng

2011-01-01

In our previous work, we investigated detectability of discrete event systems, which is defined as the ability to determine the current and subsequent states of a system based on observation. For different applications, we defined four types of detectabilities: (weak) detectability, strong detectability, (weak) periodic detectability, and strong periodic detectability. In this paper, we extend our results in three aspects. (1) We extend detectability from deterministic systems to nondeterministic systems. Such a generalization is necessary because there are many systems that need to be modeled as nondeterministic discrete event systems. (2) We develop polynomial algorithms to check strong detectability. The previous algorithms are based on observer whose construction is of exponential complexity, while the new algorithms are based on a new automaton called detector. (3) We extend detectability to D-detectability. While detectability requires determining the exact state of a system, D-detectability relaxes this requirement by asking only to distinguish certain pairs of states. With these extensions, the theory on detectability of discrete event systems becomes more applicable in solving many practical problems. PMID:21691432

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

Science.gov (United States)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

Observations of hybrid seismic events at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: July 1995 to September 1996

Science.gov (United States)

White, R.A.; Miller, A.D.; Lynch, L.; Power, J.

1998-01-01

Swarms of small repetitive events with similar waveforms and magnitudes are often observed during the emplacement of lava domes. Over 300 000 such events were recorded in association with the emplacement of the lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated <2-3 km deep. They exhibited energy ranging over approximately 1.5-4.5 Hz and were broader band than typical long-period events. We term the events `hybrid' between long-period and volcano-tectonic. The events were more impulsive and broader band prior to, compared with during and after, periods of inferred increased magma flux rate. Individual swarms contained up to 10,000 events often exhibiting very similar magnitudes and waveforms throughout the swarm. Swarms lasted hours to weeks, during which inter-event intervals generally increased, then decreased, often several times. Long-duration swarms began about every two months starting in late September 1995. We speculate that the events were produced as the magma column degassed into adjacent cracks.

The quasi-biennial oscillation of 1.7 years in ground level enhancement events

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco Herrera, V. M.; Pérez-Peraza, J.; Soon, W.; Márquez-Adame, J. C.

2018-04-01

The so-called Ground Level Enhancement events are sporadic relativistic solar particles measured at ground level by a network of cosmic ray detectors worldwide. These sporadic events are typically assumed to occur by random chance. However, we find that by studying the last 56 ground level enhancement events reported from 1966 through 2014, these events occur preferentially in the positive phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation of 1.7 year periodicity. These discrete ground level enhancement events show that there is another type of solar emission (i.e., wavelike packets) that occurs only in a specific phase of a very particular oscillation. We interpret this empirical result to support that ground level enhancement events are not a result of purely stochastic processes. We used the Morlet wavelet to analyze the phase of each of the periodicities found by the wavelet analyses and local variations of power spectral density in these sporadic events. We found quasi-regular periodicities of 10.4, 6.55, 4.12, 2.9, 1.73, 0.86, 0.61, 0.4 and 0.24 years in ground level enhancements. Although some of these quasi-biennial oscillation periodicities (i.e., oscillations operating between 0.6 and 4 years) may be interpreted as simply harmonics and overtones of the fundamental solar cycle from the underlying sun-spot magnetism phenomenon. The sources of these periodicities are still unclear. Also there is no clear mechanism for the variability of the quasi-biennial oscillation periodicities itself. The quasi-biennial oscillation periodicities are broadly considered to be a variation of solar activity, associated with the solar dynamo process. Also, the intensity of these periodicities is more important around the years of maximum solar activity because the quasi-biennial oscillation periodicities are modulated by the solar cycle where the Sun is more energetically enhanced during activity maxima. To identify the relationships among ground level enhancement, solar, and cosmic

Source mechanism of small long-period events at Mount St. Helens in July 2005 using template matching, phase-weighted stacking, and full-waveform inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, Robin S.; Chouet, Bernard A.; Dawson, Phillip B.; Shearer, Peter M.; Haney, Matthew M.; Waite, Gregory P.; Moran, Seth C.; Mikesell, T. Dylan

2015-01-01

Long-period (LP, 0.5-5 Hz) seismicity, observed at volcanoes worldwide, is a recognized signature of unrest and eruption. Cyclic LP “drumbeating” was the characteristic seismicity accompanying the sustained dome-building phase of the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH), WA. However, together with the LP drumbeating was a near-continuous, randomly occurring series of tiny LP seismic events (LP “subevents”), which may hold important additional information on the mechanism of seismogenesis at restless volcanoes. We employ template matching, phase-weighted stacking, and full-waveform inversion to image the source mechanism of one multiplet of these LP subevents at MSH in July 2005. The signal-to-noise ratios of the individual events are too low to produce reliable waveform-inversion results, but the events are repetitive and can be stacked. We apply network-based template matching to 8 days of continuous velocity waveform data from 29 June to 7 July 2005 using a master event to detect 822 network triggers. We stack waveforms for 359 high-quality triggers at each station and component, using a combination of linear and phase-weighted stacking to produce clean stacks for use in waveform inversion. The derived source mechanism pointsto the volumetric oscillation (~10 m3) of a subhorizontal crack located at shallow depth (~30 m) in an area to the south of Crater Glacier in the southern portion of the breached MSH crater. A possible excitation mechanism is the sudden condensation of metastable steam from a shallow pressurized hydrothermal system as it encounters cool meteoric water in the outer parts of the edifice, perhaps supplied from snow melt.

Maternal life event stress and congenital anomalies.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmichael, S L; Shaw, G M

2000-01-01

We used data from a population-based case-control study to explore the relation between certain life events during the periconceptional period and several types of congenital anomalies. We ascertained cases from pregnancies ending in 1987-1989 and randomly selected controls from eligible liveborn infants. In telephone interviews, women reported deaths of anyone close to them. They also reported job losses or separations/divorces, for themselves or anyone close to them. Experiencing at least one stressful event during the periconceptional period was associated with a prevalence odds ratio of 1.4-1.5 for the delivery of infants with conotruncal heart defects, neural tube defects, and isolated cleft lip with or without palate. These associations tended to be restricted to women who were not obese and women with less than or equal to a high school education. This study suggests that women who experience stressful life events around the time of conception or early gestation may be at increased risk of delivering infants with certain congenital anomalies.

Long Period Source Characteristics of Great Earthquakes: diagnosing complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, L. A.; Kanamori, H.

2013-12-01

With the commonly used centroid moment tensor inversions, just one number represents the long period size of the event, the seismic moment Mo (or corresponding Mw). However, several recent studies have clearly demonstrated that this is not satisfactory, at least for some earthquakes. For example, for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Is. Earthquake, the amplitudes of long-period normal modes indicated that the effective seismic moment increases from 4.0x1022 to 7.1x1022 N-m as the period increases from 300 to 1000 sec. For the 2009 Samoa Is. earthquake (Mw=8.1), the moment tensor was found to be strongly dependent on frequency because the source of this earthquake consists of at least 2 distinct events with very different mechanisms. It is possible that other large and great earthquakes may have similar complex characteristics, but with the standard moment tensor inversion with a single frequency band, we may not notice this easily. Here we investigate the possible frequency dependence of the moment tensor of large earthquakes by performing W phase inversions using teleseismic data and equally spaced narrow overlapping frequency bands. We investigate frequencies from 2.6 to 3.8 mHz. We focus on the variation with frequency of the scalar moment, the amount of non double couple and the focal mechanism. We apply this technique to 30 major events in the period 1994-2013 and use the results to detect source complexity. We class them in three groups according to the variability of the source parameters with frequency: Simple, Complex and Intermediate events and we discuss the correlation of the result of this approach with independent observations of source complexity.

Long-Term Recall of Event Sequences in Infancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandler, Jean M.; McDonough, Laraine

1995-01-01

Two experiments demonstrated that 11-month olds can encode novel causal events from a brief period of observational learning and recall much of the information after 24 hours and after 3 months. The infants remembered more individual actions than whole sequences, but reproduced many of the events in their entirety after the long delay. (MDM)

MGR External Events Hazards Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, L.

1999-01-01

The purpose and objective of this analysis is to apply an external events Hazards Analysis (HA) to the License Application Design Selection Enhanced Design Alternative 11 [(LADS EDA II design (Reference 8.32))]. The output of the HA is called a Hazards List (HL). This analysis supersedes the external hazards portion of Rev. 00 of the PHA (Reference 8.1). The PHA for internal events will also be updated to the LADS EDA II design but under a separate analysis. Like the PHA methodology, the HA methodology provides a systematic method to identify potential hazards during the 100-year Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) operating period updated to reflect the EDA II design. The resulting events on the HL are candidates that may have potential radiological consequences as determined during Design Basis Events (DBEs) analyses. Therefore, the HL that results from this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply during the performance of DBE analyses

Going for gold : Investigating the (non)sense of increased advertising around major sports events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gijsenberg, Maarten J.

Major sports events draw unsurpassed media attention. Companies are motivated to increase their advertising investments around these events to reach large audiences in a short period. Is such an advertising surge actually beneficial though, or should companies avoid advertising in these periods

Aspirin and the risk of cardiovascular events in atherosclerosis patients with and without prior ischemic events.

Science.gov (United States)

Bavry, Anthony A; Elgendy, Islam Y; Elbez, Yedid; Mahmoud, Ahmed N; Sorbets, Emmanuel; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Bhatt, Deepak L

2017-09-01

The benefit of aspirin among patients with stable atherosclerosis without a prior ischemic event is not well defined. Aspirin would be of benefit in outpatients with atherosclerosis with prior ischemic events, but not in those without ischemic events. Subjects from the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health registry were divided according to prior ischemic event (n =21 724) vs stable atherosclerosis, but no prior ischemic event (n = 11 872). Analyses were propensity score matched. Aspirin use was updated at each clinic visit and considered as a time-varying covariate. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. In the group with a prior ischemic event, aspirin use was associated with a marginally lower risk of the primary outcome at a median of 41 months (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-1.01, P = 0.06). In the group without a prior ischemic event, aspirin use was not associated with a lower risk of the primary outcome at a median of 36 months (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.73-1.45, P = 0.86). In this observational analysis of outpatients with stable atherosclerosis, aspirin was marginally beneficial among patients with a prior ischemic event; however, there was no apparent benefit among those with no prior ischemic event. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The ISC Seismic Event Bibliography

Science.gov (United States)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Storchak, Dmitry

2015-04-01

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) is a not-for-profit organization operating in the UK for the last 50 years and producing the ISC Bulletin - the definitive worldwide summary of seismic events, both natural and anthropogenic - starting from the beginning of 20th century. Often researchers need to gather information related to specific seismic events for various reasons. To facilitate such task, in 2012 we set up a new database linking earthquakes and other seismic events in the ISC Bulletin to bibliographic records of scientific articles (mostly peer-reviewed journals) that describe those events. Such association allows users of the ISC Event Bibliography (www.isc.ac.uk/event_bibliography/index.php) to run searches for publications via a map-based web interface and, optionally, selecting scientific publications related to either specific events or events in the area of interest. Some of the greatest earthquakes were described in several hundreds of articles published over a period of few years. The journals included in our database are not limited to seismology but bring together a variety of fields in geosciences (e.g., engineering seismology, geodesy and remote sensing, tectonophysics, monitoring research, tsunami, geology, geochemistry, hydrogeology, atmospheric sciences, etc.) making this service useful in multidisciplinary studies. Usually papers dealing with large data set are not included (e.g., papers describing a seismic catalogue). Currently the ISC Event Bibliography includes over 17,000 individual publications from about 500 titles related to over 14,000 events that occurred in last 100+ years. The bibliographic records in the Event Bibliography start in the 1950s, and it is updated as new publications become available.

Solar Type II Radio Bursts and IP Type II Events

Science.gov (United States)

Cane, H. V.; Erickson, W. C.

2005-01-01

We have examined radio data from the WAVES experiment on the Wind spacecraft in conjunction with ground-based data in order to investigate the relationship between the shocks responsible for metric type II radio bursts and the shocks in front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The bow shocks of fast, large CMEs are strong interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the associated radio emissions often consist of single broad bands starting below approx. 4 MHz; such emissions were previously called IP type II events. In contrast, metric type II bursts are usually narrowbanded and display two harmonically related bands. In addition to displaying complete dynamic spectra for a number of events, we also analyze the 135 WAVES 1 - 14 MHz slow-drift time periods in 2001-2003. We find that most of the periods contain multiple phenomena, which we divide into three groups: metric type II extensions, IP type II events, and blobs and bands. About half of the WAVES listings include probable extensions of metric type II radio bursts, but in more than half of these events, there were also other slow-drift features. In the 3 yr study period, there were 31 IP type II events; these were associated with the very fastest CMEs. The most common form of activity in the WAVES events, blobs and bands in the frequency range between 1 and 8 MHz, fall below an envelope consistent with the early signatures of an IP type II event. However, most of this activity lasts only a few tens of minutes, whereas IP type II events last for many hours. In this study we find many examples in the radio data of two shock-like phenomena with different characteristics that occur simultaneously in the metric and decametric/hectometric bands, and no clear example of a metric type II burst that extends continuously down in frequency to become an IP type II event. The simplest interpretation is that metric type II bursts, unlike IP type II events, are not caused by shocks driven in front of CMEs.

Probabilistic analysis of external events with focus on the Fukushima event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kollasko, Heiko; Jockenhoevel-Barttfeld, Mariana; Klapp, Ulrich

2014-01-01

External hazards are those natural or man-made hazards to a site and facilities that are originated externally to both the site and its processes, i.e. the duty holder may have very little or no control over the hazard. External hazards can have the potential of causing initiating events at the plant, typically transients like e.g., loss of offsite power. Simultaneously, external events may affect safety systems required to control the initiating event and, where applicable, also back-up systems implemented for risk-reduction. The plant safety may especially be threatened when loads from external hazards exceed the load assumptions considered in the design of safety-related systems, structures and components. Another potential threat is given by hazards inducing initiating events not considered in the safety demonstration otherwise. An example is loss of offsite power combined with prolonged plant isolation. Offsite support, e.g., delivery of diesel fuel oil, usually credited in the deterministic safety analysis may not be possible in this case. As the Fukushima events have shown, the biggest threat is likely given by hazards inducing both effects. Such hazards may well be dominant risk contributors even if their return period is very high. In order to identify relevant external hazards for a certain Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) location, a site specific screening analysis is performed, both for single events and for combinations of external events. As a result of the screening analysis, risk significant and therefore relevant (screened-in) single external events and combinations of them are identified for a site. The screened-in events are further considered in a detailed event tree analysis in the frame of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) to calculate the core damage/large release frequency resulting from each relevant external event or from each relevant combination. Screening analyses of external events performed at AREVA are based on the approach provided

Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Braun

2010-02-01

Full Text Available During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events. In previous studies a red noise random process, more precisely a first-order autoregressive (AR1 process, was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple mechanistic two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events. More precisely, to enhance our scientific understanding about the trigger of DO events, we must not consider simple "straw men" as, for example, the AR1 random process, but rather test against realistic alternative descriptions.

Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, Marlon; Reyes-Santiago, Pedro J.; Malandraki, Olga E.

2017-07-01

A tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme is presented. This real-time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near-Earth environment, by estimating the lag correlation between the time derivatives of 1 min soft X-ray flux (SXR) and 1 min near-Earth proton fluxes observed by the GOES satellites. Unlike current GLE warning systems, this tool can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min with respect to the first NM station's alert and 15 min to the GLE Alert Plus's warning. We have tested the model by replacing the GOES proton data with SOHO/EPHIN proton data, and the results are similar in terms of POD, FAR, and AWT for the same period. The paper also presents a comparison with a GLE warning system.

Busy period analysis, rare events and transient behavior in fluid flow models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Søren Asmussen

1994-01-01

Full Text Available We consider a process {(Jt,Vt}t≥0 on E×[0,∞, such that {Jt} is a Markov process with finite state space E, and {Vt} has a linear drift ri on intervals where Jt=i and reflection at 0. Such a process arises as a fluid flow model of current interest in telecommunications engineering for the purpose of modeling ATM technology. We compute the mean of the busy period and related first passage times, show that the probability of buffer overflow within a busy cycle is approximately exponential, and give conditioned limit theorems for the busy cycle with implications for quick simulation. Further, various inequalities and approximations for transient behavior are given. Also explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of the busy period are found. Mathematically, the key tool is first passage probabilities and exponential change of measure for Markov additive processes.

Long period seismic source characterization at Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Arciniega-Ceballos, Alejandra; Dawson, Phillip; Chouet, Bernard A.

2012-01-01

The seismicity of Popocatépetl is dominated by long-period and very-long period signals associated with hydrothermal processes and magmatic degassing. We model the source mechanism of repetitive long-period signals in the 0.4–2 s band from a 15-station broadband network by stacking long-period events with similar waveforms to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. The data are well fitted by a point source located within the summit crater ~250 m below the crater floor and ~200 m from the inferred magma conduit. The inferred source includes a volumetric component that can be modeled as resonance of a horizontal steam-filled crack and a vertical single force component. The long-period events are thought to be related to the interaction between the magmatic system and a perched hydrothermal system. Repetitive injection of fluid into the horizontal fracture and subsequent sudden discharge when a critical pressure threshold is met provides a non-destructive source process.

Long-period intensity pulsations in the solar corona during activity cycle 23

Science.gov (United States)

Auchère, F.; Bocchialini, K.; Solomon, J.; Tison, E.

2014-03-01

We report on the detection (10σ) of 917 events of long-period (3 to 16 h) intensity pulsations in the 19.5 nm passband of the SOHO Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope. The data set spans from January 1997 to July 2010, i.e. the entire solar cycle 23 and the beginning of cycle 24. The events can last for up to six days and have relative amplitudes up to 100%. About half of the events (54%) are found to happen in active regions, and 50% of these have been visually associated with coronal loops. The remaining 46% are localized in the quiet Sun. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the possible instrumental artefacts and we conclude that the observed signal is of solar origin. We discuss several scenarios that could explain the main characteristics of the active region events. The long periods and the amplitudes observed rule out any explanation in terms of magnetohydrodynamic waves. Thermal non-equilibrium could produce the right periods, but it fails to explain all the observed properties of coronal loops and the spatial coherence of the events. We propose that moderate temporal variations of the heating term in the energy equation, so as to avoid a thermal non-equilibrium state, could be sufficient to explain those long-period intensity pulsations. The large number of detections suggests that these pulsations are common in active regions. This would imply that the measurement of their properties could provide new constraints on the heating mechanisms of coronal loops. Movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Strategies and knowledge used when reconstructing the dates of autobiographical events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Tine; Thomsen, Dorthe Kirkegaard

Strategies and knowledge used when reconstructing the dates of autobiographical events. Tine Holm and Dorthe Kierkegaard Thomsen Individuals rarely remember the dates of specific memories. Rather they reconstruct dates using a variety of strategies and knowledge. In this study, we examined how...... often individuals use and combine different types of strategies and knowledge. Forty-five participants were each presented with diary descriptions of approximately 42 events from their first term at university that they had written 3 ½ years prior and were asked to date remembered events while...... they thought out loud. The results revealed that participants most frequently used period knowledge as a strategy in dating events. Other frequently used strategies were temporal schemas and temporal landmarks. Participants often combined strategies. Most frequently they combined period knowledge and temporal...

Lattice Wind Description and Characterization of Mexico City Local Wind Events in the 2001–2006 Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Salcido

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Urban transformation and expansion in Mexico City continuously affect its urban morphology, and therefore the modes of wind circulation inside it and their occurrence probabilities. Knowledge on these topics is an important issue for urban planning and for other urban studies, such as air quality assessment. In this paper, using a lattice wind model at a meso-β scale, we develop a simple description and characterization of Mexico City local wind events that occurred during the period 2001–2006, including an estimation of the occurrence probabilities. This region was modeled as a 2D lattice domain of identical cells, and wind conditions in each cell were described by four wind attributes: the horizontal velocity components, divergence, and vorticity. Models of one and four cells were applied to wind data furnished by the meteorological network of the city. Results include the following: Early morning: low intensity winds (75% from N, NW, W and SW (75%, convergent (93%, with a slight predominance of cyclonic vorticity (54%. Morning and early afternoon: winds from N, NE and E (72% with speeds from 0.5 to 3.5 m/s, slight prevailing of convergent winds (51%, and slight predominance of cyclonic vorticity (57%. Late afternoon and night: winds blowing from N, NW, and S (63% with speeds from 1.5 to 3.5 m/s (66%, convergent (90%, and cyclonic (72%.

Second-order analysis of semiparametric recurrent event processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yongtao

2011-09-01

A typical recurrent event dataset consists of an often large number of recurrent event processes, each of which contains multiple event times observed from an individual during a follow-up period. Such data have become increasingly available in medical and epidemiological studies. In this article, we introduce novel procedures to conduct second-order analysis for a flexible class of semiparametric recurrent event processes. Such an analysis can provide useful information regarding the dependence structure within each recurrent event process. Specifically, we will use the proposed procedures to test whether the individual recurrent event processes are all Poisson processes and to suggest sensible alternative models for them if they are not. We apply these procedures to a well-known recurrent event dataset on chronic granulomatous disease and an epidemiological dataset on meningococcal disease cases in Merseyside, United Kingdom to illustrate their practical value. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

[Sickness absence associated with major life events].

Science.gov (United States)

Markussen, Simen; Røgeberg, Ole

2012-05-29

Sickness absence in the Norwegian workplace doubled in the period 1993-2003. However, the extent to which the driving factors were medical or non-medical remains unclear, as does the extent to which the cause may be found in the composition of the workforce. A differences-in-differences regression model was used to estimate the added sickness absence associated with major life events such as separation, death of spouse and pregnancy in the period 1993-2005. The data were obtained from administrative registers covering the entire Norwegian population, and include all absence periods of 16 days' duration or more reported by a doctor's medical certificate. The primary outcome measures were incidence (the proportion of absentees in a given time window) and absence (the proportion of sick days in a given time window). The level of absence among employees exposed to the specified life events was compared to control groups matched for gender, age, education and income. In 1993, people in each of the three groups exposed to major life events had more frequent and longer periods of absence than people in the control groups. This added sickness absence increased between 1993 and 2005. The changes in added sickness absence were at times significant, particularly for pregnant women. While sickness absence among pregnant women in 1993 was 15.4 percentage points higher than in the control group, the difference had increased to 24.8 percentage points in 2005. We find it improbable for the increase in added sickness absence to be caused by changes in the medical impact of life events or alterations in the workforce composition. We believe the increase is caused by changing attitudes among the working population and in the medical profession towards sickness absence on grounds that are not strictly medical, combined with improved social acceptance and diagnosis of mental health issues, and/or a medicalisation of natural health variations (pregnancy) and emotional distress (grief).

Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Peter; Braun, H.; Chialvo, D. R.

2008-01-01

of a highly nonlinear system to quasi-periodic solar forcing plus noise. This hypothesis was challenged as inconsistent with the observed variability in the phase relation between proxies of solar activity and Greenland climate. Here we reject the claim of inconsistency by showing that this phase variability...... is a robust, generic feature of the nonlinear dynamics of DO events, as described by a model. This variability is expected from the fact that the events are threshold crossing events, resulting from a cooperative process between the periodic forcing and the noise. This process produces a fluctuating phase...

Characterization of endocrine events during the periestrous period in sheep after estrous synchronization with controlled internal drug release (CIDR) device.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Cleeff, J; Karsch, F J; Padmanabhan, V

1998-01-01

The Controlled Internal Drug Releasing (CIDR) device is an intravaginal pessary containing progesterone (P4) designed for synchronizing estrus in ruminants. To date, there has been little information available on the timing, duration, and quality of the follicular phase after CIDR removal and how those characteristics compare with natural periovulatory endocrine events. The present communication relates the results of methods we used to characterize the endocrine events that followed CIDR synchronization. Breeding-season ewes were given an injection (10 mg) of Lutalyse (PGF2 alpha), and then studied during three consecutive estrous cycles, beginning in the luteal phase after the estrus induced by PGF2 alpha. Cycle 1 estrus was synchronized with 1 CIDR (Type G) inserted for 8 d beginning 10 d after PGF2 alpha. Cycles 2 and 3 were synchronized with two CIDRs for 8 d beginning 10 d after previous CIDR removal. Cycle 1 estrous behavior and serum gonadotropins showed a follicular phase (the interval from CIDR withdrawal to gonadotropin surge [surge] peak) of 38.2 +/- 1.5 hr. Two CIDRs lengthened the interval to 46.2 +/- 1.5 hr (P synchronization concentrated surges within a 24-hr period in 92% of the ewes in Cycles 1 and 2. Cycles 3 ewes were euthanized at estimated luteal, early follicular, late follicular, LH surge, and secondary FSH rise timepoints. Endocrine data and ovaries showed that 88% of the ewes synchronized with two CIDRs were in the predicted stage of the estrous cycle. These data demonstrate that the CIDR device applied during the luteal phase effectively synchronizes estrus and results in a CIDR removal-to-surge interval of similar length to a natural follicular phase.

Long Period Seismological Research Program

Science.gov (United States)

1974-10-31

in central Asia as observed at the high-gain long- period sites. Preliminary results from observations at Chiang Mai (CHG) show that the complexity...Preliminary results from observations at Chiang Mai (CHG) show that the complexity of the surface wave signals from many events in the Tadzhik-Kirgiz...and receivers. A number of Interesting features can be illustrated by examining portions of three selsmograms recorded at Chiang Mai (CHO

Three dimensional periodic foundations for base seismic isolation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, Y; Mo, Y L; Cheng, Z; Shi, Z; Menq, F; Tang, Y

2015-01-01

Based on the concept of phononic crystals, periodic foundations made of periodic materials are investigated in this paper. The periodic foundations can provide low frequency band gaps, which cover the main frequency ranges of seismic waves. Therefore, the periodic foundations are able to protect the upper structures during earthquake events. In this paper, the basic theory of three dimensional periodic foundations is studied and the finite element method was used to conduct the sensitivity study. A simplified three-dimensional periodic foundation with a superstructure was tested in the field and the feasibility of three dimensional periodic foundations was proved. The test results showed that the response of the upper structure with the three dimensional periodic foundation was reduced under excitation waves with the main frequency falling in the attenuation zones. The finite element analysis results are consistent with the experimental data, indicating that three dimensional periodic foundations are a feasible way of reducing seismic vibrations. (paper)

New serial time codes for seismic short period and long period data acquisition systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolvankar, V.G.; Rao, D.S.

1988-01-01

This paper discusses a new time code for time indexing multichannel short period (1 to 25 hz) seismic event data recorded on a single track of magnetic tape in digital format and discusses its usefulness in contrast to Vela time code used in continuous analog multichannel data recording system on multitrack instrumentation tape deck. This paper also discusses another time code, used for time indexing of seismic long period (DC to 2.5 seconds) multichannel data recorded on a single track of magnetic tape in digital format. The time code decoding and display system developed to provide quick access to any desired portion of the tape in both data recording and repro duce system is also discussed. (author). 7 figs

On the quiet-time Pc 5 pulsation events (spacequakes)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, J.C.; Niblett, E.R.

1979-01-01

A quiet-time Pc 5 event (designated Spacequake) of March 18, 1974, first noted on the Fort Churchill magnetogram, was studied using global data. Its amplitude was found to be largest in the northern part of the auroral zone and its period seemed to increase with latitude. The clockwise polarization of the event noted at Baker Lake and higher latitudes changed to counterclockwise at Fort Churchill in X-Y, X-Z and Y-Z planes. The resonance of a field line (L approximately 10) excited due to an instability of the Kelvin-Helmholtz type may have given rise to the observed event. It is conjectured that the cause of instability at this altitude was internal convection of the magnetosphere. Similar quiet-time events from four Canadian observatories were selected from approximately 11 years of magnetograms and their statistical analysis revealed that (i) occurrences maximised near dawn and dusk (ii) the amplitude-latitude profile peaked at Great Whale River (L approximately 6.67), (iii) periods increased with increasing geomagnetic latitudes, (iv) a large number of events occurred in January, February and March every year, and (v) frequency of occurrence increased with increasing sunspot numbers. Comparison of these results with those available in the literature from analyses of satellite data clearly indicate that quiet-time Pc 5 events (Spacequakes) originate in the outer magnetosphere. (author)

Impact of tornadoes on hospital admissions for acute cardiovascular events.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva-Palacios, Federico; Casanegra, Ana Isabel; Shapiro, Alan; Phan, Minh; Hawkins, Beau; Li, Ji; Stoner, Julie; Tafur, Alfonso

2015-11-01

There is a paucity of data describing cardiovascular events after tornado outbreaks. We proposed to study the effects of tornadoes on the incidence of cardiovascular events at a tertiary care institution. Hospital admission records from a single center situated in a tornado-prone area three months before and after a 2013 tornado outbreak were abstracted. To control for seasonal variation, we also abstracted data from the same period of the prior year (control). Hospital admissions for cardiovascular events (CVEs) including acute myocardial infarction, stroke and venous thromboembolism (VTE) were summated by zip codes, and compared by time period. There were 22,607 admissions analyzed, of which 6,705 (30%), 7,980 (35%), and 7,922 (35%) were during the pre-tornado, post-tornado, and control time frames, respectively. There were 344 CVE in the controls, 317 CVE in pre-tornado and 364 CVEs in post tornado periods. There was no difference in the prevalence of CVE during the post-tornado season compared with the control (PPR=1.05 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.21, p=0.50) or the pre-tornado season (PPR=0.96, 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.21, p=0.63). In conclusion, tornado outbreaks did not increase the prevalence of cardiovascular events. In contrast to the effect of hurricanes, implementation of a healthcare policy change directed toward the early treatment and prevention of cardiovascular events after tornadoes does not seem warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Negative life events, coping and mental health in middle childhood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iwona Grzegorzewska

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Background In the period of middle childhood, social experiences (both educational and social may constitute a critical moment in time for the ultimate results of development in the case of an individual. Negative life events and coping skills may guarantee a positive or negative direction of development, exerting an influence on the mental health of children. In the study, a four-factor model of mental health was adopted, taking into consideration psychopathological symptoms within the scope of externalizing and internalizing disorders, the level of the performance of developmental tasks, and the sense of life satisfaction. The present study investigated the correlation between stress, coping and mental health in children in middle childhood. Participants and procedure The study included 182 individuals aged between 9 and 12 years. The following aspects were subjected to assessment: the level of mental health, the number and severity of negative life events, and the strategies of coping with stress. In order to determine the strongest predictors of the four dimensions of mental health of children, hierarchical regression analysis was applied. Results It was found that the strongest predictor of mental health of children in the period of middle childhood was individual and accumulated negative stress events. Lower significance was found for the subjective assessment of the severity of events being experienced. It was found that a factor protecting against disorders was active methods of coping. Conclusions The study suggests that it is not only psychopathological symptoms that constitute the negative consequence of the effect of stress. Negative stress events influence the positive dimensions of mental health, including the level of performance of developmental tasks and the sense of life satisfaction in children in the period of middle childhood. The obtained results show the specific character of the discussed period of development. However

The INTIMATE event stratigraphy and recommendations for its use

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Sune O.

2014-05-01

The North Atlantic INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) group has previously recommended an Event Stratigraphy approach for the synchronisation of records of the Last Termination using the Greenland ice core records as the regional stratotypes. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. In addition to presenting the updated event stratigraphy, we make a series of recommendations on how to refer to these periods in a way that promotes unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, providing a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is a part of a manuscript under review for publication in Quaternary Science Reviews. Author team: S.O. Rasmussen, M. Bigler, S.P.E. Blockley, T. Blunier, S.L. Buchardt, H.B. Clausen, I. Cvijanovic, D. Dahl-Jensen, S.J. Johnsen, H. Fischer, V. Gkinis, M. Guillevic, W.Z. Hoek, J.J. Lowe, J. Pedro, T

Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Liang; Tong, Xinwei; Sun, Jianguo; Chen, Manhua; Srivastava, Deo Kumar; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

2014-07-01

In event history studies concerning recurrent events, two types of data have been extensively discussed. One is recurrent-event data (Cook and Lawless, 2007. The Analysis of Recurrent Event Data. New York: Springer), and the other is panel-count data (Zhao and others, 2010. Nonparametric inference based on panel-count data. Test 20: , 1-42). In the former case, all study subjects are monitored continuously; thus, complete information is available for the underlying recurrent-event processes of interest. In the latter case, study subjects are monitored periodically; thus, only incomplete information is available for the processes of interest. In reality, however, a third type of data could occur in which some study subjects are monitored continuously, but others are monitored periodically. When this occurs, we have mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data. This paper discusses regression analysis of such mixed data and presents two estimation procedures for the problem. One is a maximum likelihood estimation procedure, and the other is an estimating equation procedure. The asymptotic properties of both resulting estimators of regression parameters are established. Also, the methods are applied to a set of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data that arose from a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and motivated this investigation. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Statistical analysis of solar proton events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Kurt

2004-06-01

Full Text Available A new catalogue of 253 solar proton events (SPEs with energy >10MeV and peak intensity >10 protons/cm2.s.sr (pfu at the Earth's orbit for three complete 11-year solar cycles (1970-2002 is given. A statistical analysis of this data set of SPEs and their associated flares that occurred during this time period is presented. It is outlined that 231 of these proton events are flare related and only 22 of them are not associated with Ha flares. It is also noteworthy that 42 of these events are registered as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs in neutron monitors. The longitudinal distribution of the associated flares shows that a great number of these events are connected with west flares. This analysis enables one to understand the long-term dependence of the SPEs and the related flare characteristics on the solar cycle which are useful for space weather prediction.

Flood rich periods, flood poor periods and the need to look beyond instrumental records

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, S. N.

2009-04-01

For many, the later 20th Century and early 21st Century has become synonymous with a growing experience of flood risk. Scientists, politicians and the media have ascribed this to changing climate and there are good hypothetical reasons for human-induced climate change to be impacting upon the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events. In this paper, I will interrogate this claim more carefully, using the UK's instrumental records of river flow, most of which begin after 1960, but a smaller number of which extend back into the 19th Century. Those records that extent back to the 19th Century suggest that major flood events tend to cluster into periods that are relatively flood rich and relatively flood poor, most notably in larger drainage basins: i.e. there is a clear scale issue. The timing (inset, duration, termination) of these periods varies systematically by region although there is a marked flood poor period for much of the UK during the late 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. It follows that at least some of the current experience of flooding, including why it has taken so many policy-makers and flood victims by surprise, may reflect a transition from a flood poor to a flood rich period, exacerbated by possible climate change impacts. These results point to the need to rethink how we think through what drives flood risk. First, it points to the need to look at some of the fundamental oscillations in core atmospheric drivers, such as the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, in explaining what drives flood risk. Consideration of precipitation, as opposed to river flow, is more advanced in this respect, and those of us working in rivers need to engage much more thoughtfully with atmospheric scientists. Second, it points to the severe inadequacies in using records of only a few decades duration. Even where these are pooled across adjacent sub-catchments, there is likely to be a severe bias in the estimation of flood return periods when we look at instrumental

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation, December 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This monthly report contains licensee event report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 - Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System - Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule

Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

2017-01-01

External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

Log-periodic self-similarity: an emerging financial law?

OpenAIRE

S. Drozdz; F. Grummer; F. Ruf; J. Speth

2002-01-01

A hypothesis that the financial log-periodicity, cascading self-similarity through various time scales, carries signatures of a law is pursued. It is shown that the most significant historical financial events can be classified amazingly well using a single and unique value of the preferred scaling factor lambda=2, which indicates that its real value should be close to this number. This applies even to a declining decelerating log-periodic phase. Crucial in this connection is identification o...

Waveform correlation and coherence of short-period seismic noise within Gauribidanur array with implications for event detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhadauria, Y.S.; Arora, S.K.

1995-01-01

In continuation with our effort to model the short-period micro seismic noise at the seismic array at Gauribidanur (GBA), we have examined in detail time-correlation and spectral coherence of the noise field within the array space. This has implications of maximum possible improvement in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) relevant to event detection. The basis of this study is about a hundred representative wide-band noise samples collected from GBA throughout the year 1992. Both time-structured correlation as well as coherence of the noise waveforms are found to be practically independent of the inter element distances within the array, and they exhibit strong temporal and spectral stability. It turns out that the noise is largely incoherent at frequencies ranging upwards from 2 Hz; the coherency coefficient tends to increase in the lower frequency range attaining a maximum of 0.6 close to 0.5 Hz. While the maximum absolute cross-correlation also diminishes with increasing frequency, the zero-lag cross-correlation is found to be insensitive to frequency filtering regardless of the pass band. An extremely small value of -0.01 of the zero-lag correlation and a comparatively higher year-round average estimate at 0.15 of the maximum absolute time-lagged correlation yields an SNR improvement varying between a probable high of 4.1 and a low of 2.3 for the full 20-element array. 19 refs., 6 figs

Solar Proton Events in Six Solar Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Vitaly, Ishkov

Based on materials the catalogs of solar proton events (SPE) in 1955 ‒ 2010 and list SPE for the current 24 solar cycle (SC) are examined confirmed SPE with E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 proton cm-2 s ster-1 (pfu) from Švestka and Simon’s (1955 - 1969) and 5 volumes Logachev’s (1970 - 2006) Catalogs of SPE. Historically thus it was formed, that the measurements of the proton fluxes began in the epoch “increased” solar activity (SC 18 ‒ 22), and includes transition period of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction from epoch “increased” to the epoch “lowered” solar activity (22 ‒ 23 SC). In current 24 SC ‒ first SC of the incipient epoch of “lowered” SA ‒ SPE realize under the new conditions, to that of previously not observed. As showed a study of five solar cycles with the reliable measurements of E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 pfu (1964 - 2013): ‒ a quantity of SPEs remained approximately identical in SC 20, 21, somewhat decreased in the initial solar cycle of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (22), but it returned to the same quantity in, the base for the period of reconstruction, SC 23. ‒ Into the first 5 years of the each solar cycle development the rate of the proton generation events noticeably increased in 22 cycles of solar activity and returned to the average in cycles 23 and 24. ‒ Extreme solar flare events are achieved, as a rule, in the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (August - September 1859; June 1991; October ‒ November 2003.), it is confirmed also for SPE: the extreme fluxes of solar protons (S4) except one (August 1972) were occurred in period of perestroika (SC 22 and 23). This can speak, that inside the epochs SA, when the generation of magnetic field in the convective zone works in the steady-state regime, extreme SPE are improbable. ‒ The largest in the fluxes of protons (S3, S4) occur in the complexes of the active regions flare events, where magnetic field more

Recommended Format for the Periodic Table of the Elements.

Science.gov (United States)

Loening, K. L.

1984-01-01

Presents a new, recommended format for the periodic table which does not use the letters A and B to designate subgroups of elements. Also describes events leading to the adoption of this recommendation. (JM)

Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

2003-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley

Abundant spontaneous VLFE activities in Cascadia during ETS and inter-ETS time periods

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, A.; Hutchison, A. A.; Hawthorne, J.

2017-12-01

Very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) are discrete seismic events associated with episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events. They are rich in 20-50s energy and depleted in higher frequencies compared to regular local earthquakes of similar magnitudes. VLFEs can be as large as Mw 4.0, and potentially release much more seismic moment than the tremor/LFE activities, making them a critical event determining stress evolution during slow earthquakes [Ghosh et al., 2015]. Their underlying physics and relationship with tremor/LFE, however, are still unclear. In Cascadia, the majority of the VLFEs found so far are clustered near the areas of high geodetic slip during ETS events [Ghosh et al., 2015; Hutchison and Ghosh, 2016]. Interestingly, we found VLFE activity has its own dynamics and can occur independent of tremor/LFE activity. For example, during the 2014 ETS event in northern Cascadia, VLFEs are found to be asynchronous with tremor activity, both in space and time [Hutchison and Ghosh, 2016]. We use a matched filter technique to detect thousands of VLFEs over an ETS-cycle, and perhaps more interestingly, even between ETS events. VLFE activities peak during ETS events, but significant VLFE activity is detected during the inter-ETS time period. Analyses of strainmeter data near the VLFE locations suggest statistically significant strain rate increases during VLFE time periods compared to the background. We suggest that VLFE is a distinct type of seismic radiation different from tremor/LFE, and can operate independently from tremor activities. This is in contrast to a model suggesting that VLFE signals may be a result of many LFE signals arriving at seismic stations in a short time period [Gomberg et al., 2016]. We are making a consistent catalog of VLFE in Cascadia for longer time period. Systematic study of VLFEs is going to provide new insights into the mechanism of slow earthquakes and its relationship with tremor/LFE and slow slip.

Acquiring Information from Wider Scope to Improve Event Extraction

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-01

film ”. 2.3.2 Argument Constraint Even if the scenario is well detected, there is no guarantee of identifying the event correctly. Think about words...from 2003 newswire, with the same genre and time period as ACE 2005 data to avoid possible influences of variations in the genre or time period on the

SPITZER OBSERVATIONS OF GX17+2: CONFIRMATION OF A PERIODIC SYNCHROTRON SOURCE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, Thomas E.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Bornak, Jillian; Gelino, Dawn M.; Wachter, Stefanie; Rupen, Michael P.; Gelino, Christopher R.

2011-01-01

GX17+2 is a low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) that is also a member of a small family of LMXBs known as 'Z-sources' that are believed to have persistent X-ray luminosities that are very close to the Eddington limit. GX17+2 is highly variable at both radio and X-ray frequencies, a feature common to Z-sources. What sets GX17+2 apart is its dramatic variability in the near-infrared, where it changes by ΔK ∼ 3 mag. Previous investigations have shown that these brightenings are periodic, recurring every 3.01 days. Given its high extinction (A V ≥ 9 mag), it has not been possible to ascertain the nature of these events with ground-based observations. We report mid-infrared Spitzer observations of GX17+2 which indicate a synchrotron spectrum for the infrared brightenings. In addition, GX17+2 is highly variable in the mid-infrared during these events. The combination of the large-scale outbursts, the presence of a synchrotron spectrum, and the dramatic variability in the mid-infrared suggest that the infrared brightening events are due to the periodic transit of a synchrotron jet across our line of sight. An analysis of both new, and archival, infrared observations has led us to revise the period for these events to 3.0367 days. We also present new Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data for GX17+2 obtained during two predicted infrared brightening events. Analysis of these new data, and data from the RXTE archive, indicates that there is no correlation between the X-ray behavior of this source and the observed infrared brightenings. We examine various scenarios that might produce periodic jet emission.

Improvement of medication event interventions through use of an electronic database.

Science.gov (United States)

Merandi, Jenna; Morvay, Shelly; Lewe, Dorcas; Stewart, Barb; Catt, Char; Chanthasene, Phillip P; McClead, Richard; Kappeler, Karl; Mirtallo, Jay M

2013-10-01

Patient safety enhancements achieved through the use of an electronic Web-based system for responding to adverse drug events (ADEs) are described. A two-phase initiative was carried out at an academic pediatric hospital to improve processes related to "medication event huddles" (interdisciplinary meetings focused on ADE interventions). Phase 1 of the initiative entailed a review of huddles and interventions over a 16-month baseline period during which multiple databases were used to manage the huddle process and staff interventions were assigned via manually generated e-mail reminders. Phase 1 data collection included ADE details (e.g., medications and staff involved, location and date of event) and the types and frequencies of interventions. Based on the phase 1 analysis, an electronic database was created to eliminate the use of multiple systems for huddle scheduling and documentation and to automatically generate e-mail reminders on assigned interventions. In phase 2 of the initiative, the impact of the database during a 5-month period was evaluated; the primary outcome was the percentage of interventions documented as completed after database implementation. During the postimplementation period, 44.7% of assigned interventions were completed, compared with a completion rate of 21% during the preimplementation period, and interventions documented as incomplete decreased from 77% to 43.7% (p Process changes, education, and medication order improvements were the most frequently documented categories of interventions. Implementation of a user-friendly electronic database improved intervention completion and documentation after medication event huddles.

Lateralized delay period activity marks the focus of spatial attention in working memory: evidence from somatosensory event-related brain potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Katus, Tobias; Eimer, Martin

2015-04-29

The short-term retention of sensory information in working memory (WM) is known to be associated with a sustained enhancement of neural activity. What remains controversial is whether this neural trace indicates the sustained storage of information or the allocation of attention. To evaluate the storage and attention accounts, we examined sustained tactile contralateral delay activity (tCDA component) of the event-related potential. The tCDA manifests over somatosensory cortex contralateral to task-relevant tactile information during stimulus retention. Two tactile sample sets (S1, S2) were presented sequentially, separated by 1.5 s. Each set comprised two stimuli, one per hand. Human participants memorized the location of one task-relevant stimulus per sample set and judged whether one of these locations was stimulated again at memory test. The two relevant pulses were unpredictably located on the same hand (stay trials) or on different hands (shift trials). Initially, tCDA components emerged contralateral to the relevant S1 pulse. Sequential loading of WM enhanced the tCDA after S2 was presented on stay trials. On shift trials, the tCDA's polarity reversed after S2 presentation, resulting in delay activity that was now contralateral to the task-relevant S2 pulse. The disappearance of a lateralized neural trace for the relevant S1 pulse did not impair memory accuracy for this stimulus on shift trials. These results contradict the storage account and suggest that delay period activity indicates the sustained engagement of an attention-based rehearsal mechanism. In conclusion, somatosensory delay period activity marks the current focus of attention in tactile WM. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/356689-07$15.00/0.

A diary after dinner: How the time of event recording influences later accessibility of diary events.

Science.gov (United States)

Szőllősi, Ágnes; Keresztes, Attila; Conway, Martin A; Racsmány, Mihály

2015-01-01

Recording the events of a day in a diary may help improve their later accessibility. An interesting question is whether improvements in long-term accessibility will be greater if the diary is completed at the end of the day, or after a period of sleep, the following morning. We investigated this question using an internet-based diary method. On each of five days, participants (n = 109) recorded autobiographical memories for that day or for the previous day. Recording took place either in the morning or in the evening. Following a 30-day retention interval, the diary events were free recalled. We found that participants who recorded their memories in the evening before sleep had best memory performance. These results suggest that the time of reactivation and recording of recent autobiographical events has a significant effect on the later accessibility of those diary events. We discuss our results in the light of related findings that show a beneficial effect of reduced interference during sleep on memory consolidation and reconsolidation.

Effect of dronedarone on cardiovascular events in atrial fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hohnloser, Stefan H; Crijns, Harry J G M; van Eickels, Martin

2009-01-01

. RESULTS: The mean follow-up period was 21+/-5 months, with the study drug discontinued prematurely in 696 of the 2301 patients (30.2%) receiving dronedarone and in 716 of the 2327 patients (30.8%) receiving placebo, mostly because of adverse events. The primary outcome occurred in 734 patients (31......-interval prolongation, nausea, diarrhea, rash, and an increased serum creatinine level than the placebo group. Rates of thyroid- and pulmonary-related adverse events were not significantly different between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Dronedarone reduced the incidence of hospitalization due to cardiovascular events...

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

Science.gov (United States)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1989-01-01

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

Monitoring adverse events in hospitals: how safe are hospitals for patients?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baines, R.J.

2018-01-01

This thesis aims to assess trends in adverse event and preventable adverse event rates in hospitals in the Netherlands through the time period 2004 –2012. Furthermore patient safety for specific care processes and patient groups are assessed. Patient safety has been high on the international agenda

Visual search of cyclic spatio-temporal events

Science.gov (United States)

Gautier, Jacques; Davoine, Paule-Annick; Cunty, Claire

2018-05-01

The analysis of spatio-temporal events, and especially of relationships between their different dimensions (space-time-thematic attributes), can be done with geovisualization interfaces. But few geovisualization tools integrate the cyclic dimension of spatio-temporal event series (natural events or social events). Time Coil and Time Wave diagrams represent both the linear time and the cyclic time. By introducing a cyclic temporal scale, these diagrams may highlight the cyclic characteristics of spatio-temporal events. However, the settable cyclic temporal scales are limited to usual durations like days or months. Because of that, these diagrams cannot be used to visualize cyclic events, which reappear with an unusual period, and don't allow to make a visual search of cyclic events. Also, they don't give the possibility to identify the relationships between the cyclic behavior of the events and their spatial features, and more especially to identify localised cyclic events. The lack of possibilities to represent the cyclic time, outside of the temporal diagram of multi-view geovisualization interfaces, limits the analysis of relationships between the cyclic reappearance of events and their other dimensions. In this paper, we propose a method and a geovisualization tool, based on the extension of Time Coil and Time Wave, to provide a visual search of cyclic events, by allowing to set any possible duration to the diagram's cyclic temporal scale. We also propose a symbology approach to push the representation of the cyclic time into the map, in order to improve the analysis of relationships between space and the cyclic behavior of events.

Event storm detection and identification in communication systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albaghdadi, Mouayad; Briley, Bruce; Evens, Martha

2006-01-01

Event storms are the manifestation of an important class of abnormal behaviors in communication systems. They occur when a large number of nodes throughout the system generate a set of events within a small period of time. It is essential for network management systems to detect every event storm and identify its cause, in order to prevent and repair potential system faults. This paper presents a set of techniques for the effective detection and identification of event storms in communication systems. First, we introduce a new algorithm to synchronize events to a single node in the system. Second, the system's event log is modeled as a normally distributed random process. This is achieved by using data analysis techniques to explore and then model the statistical behavior of the event log. Third, event storm detection is proposed using a simple test statistic combined with an exponential smoothing technique to overcome the non-stationary behavior of event logs. Fourth, the system is divided into non-overlapping regions to locate the main contributing regions of a storm. We show that this technique provides us with a method for event storm identification. Finally, experimental results from a commercially deployed multimedia communication system that uses these techniques demonstrate their effectiveness

Prognostic value of myocardial perfusion and ventricular function in a Japanese multicenter cohort study (J-ACCESS). The first-year total events and hard events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Kenichi; Kusuoka, Hideo; Nishimura, Shigeyuki; Yamashina, Akira; Nishimura, Tsunehiko

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of myocardial ischemia, function and coronary risk factors on total and hard cardiac events using myocardial perfusion imaging in a Japanese population. A prospective cohort study was performed in 117 Japanese hospitals, each with a nuclear cardiology facility. A total of 4,031 patients with suspected or confirmed ischemic heart disease were registered. The patients were followed up for a year to investigate total and hard events, and those who had any events were followed up for 3 years to evaluate subsequent hard events. A stress-rest gated myocardial perfusion study was performed with 99m Tc-tetrofosmin using gated single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and analyzed by semi-quantitative scores. During the 1-year follow-up period, 263 (6.5%) patients had total events comprising all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, unstable angina, angina pectoris and coronary revascularization. Cardiac death occurred in 23 patients (0.6%) and non-fatal MI in 11 (0.3%). Among patients with ejection fraction (EF) of <45% and a summed difference score (SDS) of ≥2, 18.7% (2.4% for cardiac death and 0.6% for non-fatal MI) experienced total events compared with 3.9% (0.3% for cardiac death and 0.2% for non-fatal MI; P<0.0001) of those with EF≥45% and SDS<2. Multivariate analysis identified EF, SDS, age, history of revascularization and diabetes as significant predictors of all events, while the significant predictors were age and EF for hard events. When the patients who had heart failure in the first year were followed up, 9 of 41 (22.0%) experienced cardiac death in the subsequent 3-year follow-up period. Myocardial ischemia defined by SDS and ventricular function were the main predictors of total events despite the relatively low incidence of hard events in this Japanese population. In patients with cardiac events in a year, closer attention should be paid to subsequent

Event-based historical value-at-risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

2012-01-01

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

Variations in tritium levels during single storm events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, L.W.

1979-06-01

Precipitation samples have been taken over a period of one calendar year to determine the variables in environmental tritium during single storm events. Where possible, comment is made on the hydrological implications of these variations

May flood-poor periods be more dangerous than flood-rich periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Kuil, Linda; Bloeschl, Guenter

2014-05-01

River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards experienced by populations that, since the earliest recorded civilisations, have settled in floodplains because they offer favourable conditions for trade, agriculture, and economic development. The occurrence of a flood may cause loss of lives and tremendous economic damages and, therefore, is rightly seen as a very negative event by the communities involved. Occurrence of many floods in a row is, of course, even more frustrating and is rightly considered a unbearable calamity. Unfortunately, the occurrence of many floods in a limited number of consecutive years is not unusual. In many places in the world, it has been observed that extreme floods do not arrive randomly but cluster in time into flood-poor and flood-rich periods consistent with the Hurst effect. If this is the case, when are the people more in danger? When should people be more scared? In flood-poor or flood-rich periods? In this work, a Socio-Hydrology model (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014) is used to show that, maybe counter-intuitively, flood-poor periods may be more dangerous than flood-rich periods. The model is a conceptualisation of a hypothetical setting of a city at a river where a community evolves, making choices between flood management options on the floodplain. The most important feedbacks between the economic, political, technological and hydrological processes of the evolution of that community are represented in the model. In particular, the model also accounts in a dynamic way for the evolution of the the community awareness to flood risk. Occurrence of floods tends to increase peoples' recognition that their property is in an area that is potentially at risk of flooding, both at the scales of individuals and communities, which is one of the main reasons why flood coping actions are taken. It is shown through examples that frequent flood events may result in moderate damages because they ensure that the

Human performance analysis of industrial radiography radiation exposure events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reece, W.J.; Hill, S.G.

1995-01-01

A set of radiation overexposure event reports were reviewed as part of a program to examine human performance in industrial radiography for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Incident records for a seven year period were retrieved from an event database. Ninety-five exposure events were initially categorized and sorted for further analysis. Descriptive models were applied to a subset of severe overexposure events. Modeling included: (1) operational sequence tables to outline the key human actions and interactions with equipment, (2) human reliability event trees, (3) an application of an information processing failures model, and (4) an extrapolated use of the error influences and effects diagram. Results of the modeling analyses provided insights into the industrial radiography task and suggested areas for further action and study to decrease overexposures

Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

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Egidijus Rimkus

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

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J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Peculiarity of the temporal distributions of seismic events in the Central America and Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasorova, E.; Levin, B.

2010-03-01

At first the interannual earthquake distributions and its peculiarity in predetermined region are considered. The hypothesis about within-year variability existence for the events of various energy levels was tested. The worldwide catalogs ISC (International Seismic Catalog) and NEIC (USGS) were used. It was extracted all EQs for the Pacific part of the given region from 1964 with Mb>=4.0. The entire set of events under analysis was divided into several magnitude ranges (MR). The analysis of the completeness of events in defined MRs was carried out. The aftershocks were canceled from the list. Further analysis was performed separately for each MR. Then the events in each magnitude level were subdivided once again into two groups: shallow events (H Htr), where Htr is depth threshold value. Then we are checking if the distributions of the events during the year period are uniform or these distributions are no uniform. We are testing our data separately for each magnitude level and for every depth level. The null hypothesis about uniform EQ distributions in the course of year was disproved for the most samples with shallow EQ (95%). But the null hypothesis was confirmed for deep earthquakes. We use the Chi-Square test for well-filled sequences and method of statistical testing for poor-filled sequences. The Htr value determines the boundary, which divided the seismic events in two groups. If the EQ's sources located above this boundary then such EQ's are distributed non-uniformly in the course of year. While if the EQ sources located below this boundary then distribution of such EQ during the year period are uniform. It was found by using special software procedure that the Htr boundary between the shallow and the deep events in the most cases was arranged in deep 60-80 km. The noticeable increase number of seismic events in short time intervals as a rule two times in year, and significant reducing of seismic activity in the rest part of the year was shown. It was

Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

2013-01-01

The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

Propagation of short-period gravity waves at high-latitudes during the MaCWAVE winter campaign

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Nielsen

2006-07-01

Full Text Available As part of the MaCWAVE (Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically winter campaign an all-sky monochromatic CCD imager has been used to investigate the properties of short-period mesospheric gravity waves at high northern latitudes. Sequential measurements of several nightglow emissions were made from Esrange, Sweden, during a limited period from 27–31 January 2003. Coincident wind measurements over the altitude range (~80–100 km using two meteor radar systems located at Esrange and Andenes have been used to perform a novel investigation of the intrinsic properties of five distinct wave events observed during this period. Additional lidar and MSIS model temperature data have been used to investigate their nature (i.e. freely propagating or ducted. Four of these extensive wave events were found to be freely propagating with potential source regions to the north of Scandinavia. No evidence was found for strong orographic forcing by short-period waves in the airglow emission layers. The fifth event was most unusual exhibiting an extensive, but much smaller and variable wavelength pattern that appeared to be embedded in the background wind field. Coincident wind measurements indicated the presence of a strong shear suggesting this event was probably due to a large-scale Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.

Patient safety incident reports related to traditional Japanese Kampo medicines: medication errors and adverse drug events in a university hospital for a ten-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimada, Yutaka; Fujimoto, Makoto; Nogami, Tatsuya; Watari, Hidetoshi; Kitahara, Hideyuki; Misawa, Hiroki; Kimbara, Yoshiyuki

2017-12-21

Kampo medicine is traditional Japanese medicine, which originated in ancient traditional Chinese medicine, but was introduced and developed uniquely in Japan. Today, Kampo medicines are integrated into the Japanese national health care system. Incident reporting systems are currently being widely used to collect information about patient safety incidents that occur in hospitals. However, no investigations have been conducted regarding patient safety incident reports related to Kampo medicines. The aim of this study was to survey and analyse incident reports related to Kampo medicines in a Japanese university hospital to improve future patient safety. We selected incident reports related to Kampo medicines filed in Toyama University Hospital from May 2007 to April 2017, and investigated them in terms of medication errors and adverse drug events. Out of 21,324 total incident reports filed in the 10-year survey period, we discovered 108 Kampo medicine-related incident reports. However, five cases were redundantly reported; thus, the number of actual incidents was 103. Of those, 99 incidents were classified as medication errors (77 administration errors, 15 dispensing errors, and 7 prescribing errors), and four were adverse drug events, namely Kampo medicine-induced interstitial pneumonia. The Kampo medicine (crude drug) that was thought to induce interstitial pneumonia in all four cases was Scutellariae Radix, which is consistent with past reports. According to the incident severity classification system recommended by the National University Hospital Council of Japan, of the 99 medication errors, 10 incidents were classified as level 0 (an error occurred, but the patient was not affected) and 89 incidents were level 1 (an error occurred that affected the patient, but did not cause harm). Of the four adverse drug events, two incidents were classified as level 2 (patient was transiently harmed, but required no treatment), and two incidents were level 3b (patient was

Gastrointestinal events and association with initiation of treatment for osteoporosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Modi A

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Ankita Modi,1 Ethel S Siris,2 Jackson Tang,3 Shiva Sajjan,1 Shuvayu S Sen1 1Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Merck & Co., Inc, Kenilworth, NJ, 2Toni Stabile Osteoporosis Center, Columbia University Medical Center, NY Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, 3Asclepius Analytics Ltd, Brooklyn, NY, USA Background: Preexisting gastrointestinal (GI events may deter the use of pharmacologic treatment in patients diagnosed with osteoporosis (OP. The objective of this study was to examine the association between preexisting GI events and OP pharmacotherapy initiation among women diagnosed with OP. Methods: The study utilized claims data from a large US managed care database to identify women aged ≥55 years with a diagnosis code for OP (index date during 2002–2009. Patients with a claim for pharmacologic OP treatment in the 12-month pre-index period (baseline were excluded. OP treatment initiation in the post-index period was defined as a claim for bisphosphonates (alendronate, ibandronate, risedronate, zoledronic acid, calcitonin, raloxifene, or teriparatide. During the post-index period (up to 12 months, GI events were identified before treatment initiation. A time-dependent Cox regression model was used to investigate the likelihood of initiating any OP treatment. Among patients initiating OP treatment, a discrete choice model was utilized to assess the relationship between post-index GI events and likelihood of initiating with a bisphosphonate versus a non-bisphosphonate. Results: In total, 65,344 patients (mean age 66 years were included; 23.7% had a GI event post diagnosis and before treatment initiation. Post-index GI events were associated with a 75% lower likelihood of any treatment initiation (hazard ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.24–0.26. Among treated patients (n=23,311, those with post-index GI events were 39% less likely to receive a bisphosphonate versus a non-bisphosphonate (odds ratio 0.61; 95% confidence

Closeout of IE Bulletin 79-12: short-period scrams at boiling-water reactors. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeBevac, C.J.; Holland, R.A.

1985-03-01

IE Circular 77-07 was issued on April 14, 1977 because of the occurrence of short period scram events at Dresden Unit 2 on December 28, 1976 and at Monticello on February 23, 1977. The circular advised BWR plants to revise their control rod withdrawal sequences and operating procedures to reduce the likelihood of future short period scrams. However, similar events continued to occur. These included events at Oyster Creek on December 14, 1978; at Browns Ferry Unit 1 on January 18, 1979; and at Hatch Unit 1 on January 31, 1979. As a result of these events, IE Bulletin 79-12 was issued on May 31, 1979. This bulletin required a written response from licensees of GE-designed BWRs regarding specific actions listed in the bulletin. All of the licensees responded in a satisfactory manner. No similar events have been reported since IE Bulletin 79-12 was issued

Nightside High Latitude Magnetic Impulse Events

Science.gov (United States)

Engebretson, M. J.; Connors, M. G.; Braun, D.; Posch, J. L.; Kaur, M.; Guillon, S.; Hartinger, M.; Kim, H.; Behlke, R.; Reiter, K.; Jackel, B. J.; Russell, C. T.

2017-12-01

High latitude Magnetic Impulse Events (MIEs), isolated pulses with periods 5-10 min, were first noted in ground-based magnetometer data near local noon, and are now understood to be signatures of transient pressure increases in the solar wind (sudden impulses - SIs) and/or in the ion foreshock (traveling convection vortex events - TCVs). However, solitary pulses with considerably larger amplitude (ΔB up to 1500 nT) have often been observed in the night sector at these same latitudes. These events are not directly associated with transient external pressure increases, and are often large enough to produce significant ground induced currents. Although many night sector MIEs occur in association with substorm signatures, others appear to be very isolated. We present here a survey of intense MIE events identified in magnetometer data from the AUTUMNX and MACCS arrays in eastern Arctic Canada at all local times between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2017. We also show maps of horizontal and vertical perturbations and maximum dB/dt values, as well as sample magnetograms, for several example events using data from these and other arrays in Arctic Canada, as well as in West Greenland and Antarctica, the latter to show the conjugate nature of these events. A basic relation to GIC data in the Hydro-Québec electrical transmission network in eastern Canada has been determined and will be discussed.

A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.

1995-01-01

The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary

Review of licensee event reports, 1976 to 1978

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-09-01

This report was prepared in response to a request by the Chairman of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards to review, with specific objectives, the Licensee Event Reports (LERs) issued fom 1976 through 1978. A principal objective of the present study was to identify those events which have implications for improved reactor safety. Approximately 8,700 LERs were filed during the three-year period under review. These described events ranging from the trivial to those of major safety significance. This study has confirmed that LERs represent a source of valuable data and information. However, it must be recognized that a detailed review of LERs will not identify all safety problems likely to be encountered in the operation of nuclear power plants. As a result of this review, a number of classes of events were identified. These classes were subsequently categorized into three groups: (a) those having potentially serious safety implications, (b) events that must be regarded as matters of concern, and (c) events of lower safety significance but with excessive frequency

The pros and cons of researching events ethnographically

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Events (remarkable, disruptive happenings) are important subjects of study for understanding processes of change. In this essay, I reflect upon the issue of what the ethnographic method has to offer for the analysis of this social phenomenon. To do so, I review three recently published ethnographic studies of events. My conclusion is that it is indeed a very useful method for understanding the feelings and ideas of people who are experiencing eventful situations, for instance around protests or natural disasters. However, using this method also brings about practical difficulties, such as the ‘luck’ that an event occurs at the ethnographic fieldwork site. Next, as transformative responses to events are not bound by the place or time of the happening, other methods (interviews, discourse analysis, surveys) that make it easier to follow them in varying locations and periods might be more suitable for getting a comprehensive picture of their meaning-making dynamics. PMID:29081715

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring

Seismology-based early identification of dam-formation landquake events.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Wei-An; Zhao, Li; Chen, Su-Chin; Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Chi-Hsuan; Huang, Hsin-Hua

2016-01-12

Flooding resulting from the bursting of dams formed by landquake events such as rock avalanches, landslides and debris flows can lead to serious bank erosion and inundation of populated areas near rivers. Seismic waves can be generated by landquake events which can be described as time-dependent forces (unloading/reloading cycles) acting on the Earth. In this study, we conduct inversions of long-period (LP, period ≥20 s) waveforms for the landquake force histories (LFHs) of ten events, which provide quantitative characterization of the initiation, propagation and termination stages of the slope failures. When the results obtained from LP waveforms are analyzed together with high-frequency (HF, 1-3 Hz) seismic signals, we find a relatively strong late-arriving seismic phase (dubbed Dam-forming phase or D-phase) recorded clearly in the HF waveforms at the closest stations, which potentially marks the time when the collapsed masses sliding into river and perhaps even impacting the topographic barrier on the opposite bank. Consequently, our approach to analyzing the LP and HF waveforms developed in this study has a high potential for identifying five dam-forming landquake events (DFLEs) in near real-time using broadband seismic records, which can provide timely warnings of the impending floods to downstream residents.

Impact of Damaging Geo-Hydrological Events and Population Development in Calabria, Southern Italy

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Maurizio Polemio

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Damaging geo-Hydrogeological Events (DHEs are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena (such as landslides and floods that can cause damage to people and goods during periods of bad weather. These phenomena should be analyzed together as they actually occur because their interactions can both amplify the damage and obstruct emergency management. The occurrence of DHEs depends on the interactions between climatic and geomorphological features: except for long-term climatic changes, these interactions can be considered constant, and for this reason, some areas are systematically affected. However, damage scenarios can change; events that occurred in the past could presently cause different effects depending on the modifications that occurred in the geographical distribution of vulnerable elements. We analyzed a catastrophic DHE that in 1951 affected an area 3700 km2 wide, located in Calabria (southern Italy, with four-day cumulative rainfall exceeding 300 mm and return periods of daily rain exceeding 500 Y. It resulted in 101 victims and 4500 homeless individuals. The probability that a similar event will happen again in the future is assessed using the return period of the triggering rainfall, whereas the different anthropogenic factors are taken into account by means of the population densities at the time of the event and currently. The result is a classification of regional municipalities according to the probability that events such as the one analyzed will occur again in the future and the possible effects of this event on the current situation.

Event-by-event jet quenching

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fries, R.J.; Rodriguez, R.; Ramirez, E.

2010-08-14

High momentum jets and hadrons can be used as probes for the quark gluon plasma (QGP) formed in nuclear collisions at high energies. We investigate the influence of fluctuations in the fireball on jet quenching observables by comparing propagation of light quarks and gluons through averaged, smooth QGP fireballs with event-by-event jet quenching using realistic inhomogeneous fireballs. We find that the transverse momentum and impact parameter dependence of the nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} can be fit well in an event-by-event quenching scenario within experimental errors. However the transport coefficient {cflx q} extracted from fits to the measured nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} in averaged fireballs underestimates the value from event-by-event calculations by up to 50%. On the other hand, after adjusting {cflx q} to fit R{sub AA} in the event-by-event analysis we find residual deviations in the azimuthal asymmetry v{sub 2} and in two-particle correlations, that provide a possible faint signature for a spatial tomography of the fireball. We discuss a correlation function that is a measure for spatial inhomogeneities in a collision and can be constrained from data.

Event-by-event jet quenching

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez, R. [Cyclotron Institute and Physics Department, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Fries, R.J., E-mail: rjfries@comp.tamu.ed [Cyclotron Institute and Physics Department, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); RIKEN/BNL Research Center, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Ramirez, E. [Physics Department, University of Texas El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968 (United States)

2010-09-27

High momentum jets and hadrons can be used as probes for the quark gluon plasma (QGP) formed in nuclear collisions at high energies. We investigate the influence of fluctuations in the fireball on jet quenching observables by comparing propagation of light quarks and gluons through averaged, smooth QGP fireballs with event-by-event jet quenching using realistic inhomogeneous fireballs. We find that the transverse momentum and impact parameter dependence of the nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} can be fit well in an event-by-event quenching scenario within experimental errors. However the transport coefficient q extracted from fits to the measured nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} in averaged fireballs underestimates the value from event-by-event calculations by up to 50%. On the other hand, after adjusting q to fit R{sub AA} in the event-by-event analysis we find residual deviations in the azimuthal asymmetry v{sub 2} and in two-particle correlations, that provide a possible faint signature for a spatial tomography of the fireball. We discuss a correlation function that is a measure for spatial inhomogeneities in a collision and can be constrained from data.

Heinrich Events: An Unintentional Discovery And Possible Consequences For The Future

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrich, H.

2017-12-01

Heinrich Events: An Unintentional Discovery And Its Possible Consequences For The FutureIn the mid 80ties an environmental impact assessment in relation to deep-sea dumping of medium-to-high level radioactive waste was carried out in the eastern margins of the Mid Atlantic Ridge next to the Bay of Biscaye. In one of the box corers recovered for radionuclide analysis a volcanic rock was found that triggered interest because of an unexpected geochemical feature on its surface. Subsequent investigations on the bordering sediment layer revealed hints on a massive ice rafting event possibly released from rapidly collapsing circum-Atlantic ice shields. The search for more of these events in numerous sediment cores exhibited a total of 11 layers since the end of the Saalian/Illinoian glaciation (OIS 6/5 to 2/1). The six events identified in the period OIS 4 to 2 indicated oceanographic conditions in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean that were different to those that prevailed during most time of this glacial period. Later, several authors proposed mechanisms that could have triggered the collapses, e.g. the Binge-Purge model (MacAyeal, 1993) or, access of relatively warm water to the grounding lines in conjunction with isostatic movements (Bassis, 2017). One of the consequences of rapid ice shield collapses is sea level rise. Paleo data report rates of up to several meters per century over a period of several centuries. The process described by Bassis et al. resembles to what nowadays can be observed along the ice margins of Greenland and the Antarctic where (man-made) warmed ocean water attacks the grounding lines. If this initiates something similar to a Heinrich event this is of widespread consequence for coasts, from displacement of populations to marine pollution. Thus, research on past Heinrich Events is important for understanding the future developments of the existing ice shields and climate change.

Changes of amplitude and topographical characteristics of event-related potentials during the hypnagogic period.

Science.gov (United States)

Michida, N; Ebata, A; Tanaka, H; Hayashi, M; Hori, T

1999-04-01

In the previous study, during the vertex sharp wave period (hypnagogic EEG stage 4), negative components (N300, N550) were dominant at Fz and Cz in contrast to the positive component (P400) being prominent at the other areas, Pz, Oz, T5 and T6. There is no agreement regarding P400 properties during the hypnagogic period. In this study, using topographic mapping, we found that two negative components (N300, N550) and P400 independently increased their amplitude at the different areas of the scalp as arousal level lowered. The anterior negative components may reflect the information processing related to the K-complex. The P400 may reflect other activities different from the K-complex mechanism or P300 attention mechanisms.

The evolution of the Gutenberg-Richter, b-value, throughout periodic and aperiodic stick-slip cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Bolton, D. C.; Riviere, J.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

2017-12-01

The Gutenberg-Richter earthquake size statistic, b value, is a useful proxy for documenting the state of stress on a fault and understanding precursory phenomena preceding dynamic failure. It has been shown that the b value varies systematically as a function of position within the seismic cycle. Frictional studies on intact rock samples with saw-cut faults have shown that b value decreases continuously preceding failure. For intact rock samples, the spatiotemporal changes in b value are thought to be related to the evolution of asperities and micro-cracks. However, few studies have shown how b value evolves spatially and temporally for fault zones containing gouge and wear materials. We hypothesize that the micromechanical mechanisms acting within fault gouge, such as creation and destruction of force chains, grain rolling, sliding, jamming and fracturing play an important role in the evolution of b value and that they may have distinct signatures during periodic and aperiodic cycles of stick-slip frictional motion. We report results from experiments conducted on simulated fault gouge using a biaxial deformation apparatus in a double-direct shear configuration. Acoustic emissions (AEs) are recorded at 4 MHz from 36 P-polarized piezoelectric transducers, which are embedded in steel blocks located adjacent to the fault zone. We compute the frequency-magnitude distribution of detected AEs using a moving window in events where each window is overlapped by 75%. We report on the evolution of b value as a function of normal stress and gouge layer thickness. For periodic slip events, b value reaches a maximum value immediately after a slip event and decreases continuously until the next failure. Aperiodic slip events show similar trends in b-value initially, however unlike periodic slip events, b value reaches a steady state value before failure occurs. In addition, for periodic slip events the magnitude of the change in b value scales inversely with gouge layer thickness

ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

2017-01-01

A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

Probability model for worst case solar proton event fluences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xapsos, M.A.; Summers, G.P.; Barth, J.L.; Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Burke, E.A.

1999-01-01

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary orbits, polar orbits and on interplanetary missions. A predictive model of worst case solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected worst case event fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for periods of time corresponding to space missions. The proton energy range is from >1 to >300 MeV, so that the model is useful for a variety of radiation effects applications. For each proton energy threshold, the maximum entropy principle is used to select the initial distribution of solar proton event fluences. This turns out to be a truncated power law, i.e., a power law for smaller event fluences that smoothly approaches zero at a maximum fluence. The strong agreement of the distribution with satellite data for the last three solar cycles indicates this description captures the essential features of a solar proton event fluence distribution. Extreme value theory is then applied to the initial distribution of events to obtain the model of worst case fluences

Association between respiratory events and nocturnal gastroesophageal reflux events in patients with coexisting obstructive sleep apnea and gastroesophageal reflux disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaimchariyatam, Nattapong; Tantipornsinchai, Warangkana; Desudchit, Tayard; Gonlachanvit, Sutep

2016-06-01

Literature has addressed the increased prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Significant improvement of GERD has been found after OSA treatment. However, precise mechanisms underlying this correlation remain unclear. We examined the association between nocturnal gastroesophageal reflux (GER) and sleep events in patients with coexisting OSA and GERD. A case-crossover study among 12 patients with coexisting moderate-severe OSA and GERD was conducted. Participants underwent simultaneous polysomnography and esophageal impedance and pH monitoring. GER subtypes (ie, acid reflux, non-acid reflux) were defined as outcomes. Respective control time points were selected in all eligible control periods. Each sleep event was assessed individually. Estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were analyzed. A p-value of reflux and 28 non-acid reflux. Arousals and awakenings were significantly associated with subsequent GER events. The OR for GER following an arousal was 2.31 (95% CI 1.39-3.68; p  0.05). Both awakening and arousal appear to precipitate any subtype of GER events in patients with coexisting GERD and moderate to severe OSA. However, GER events were significantly less likely to occur after other respiratory events and did not appear to cause sleep-related events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of failure events for expansion joints in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sato, Masahiro [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan)

2001-09-01

Although a large number of expansion joints are used in nuclear power plants with light water reactors, their failure events have not been paid as much attention as those of vessels and pipes. However, as the operation period of nuclear power plants becomes longer, it is necessary to pay attention to their failure events as well as those of vessels and pipes, because aging problems and latent troubles originated in design or fabrication of expansion joints may appear during their long period operation. In this work, we investigated failure event reports of expansion joints in nuclear power plants both in Japan and in U.S.A. and analyzed (1) the influence to output power level, (2) the position and (3) the cause of each failure. It is revealed that the failure events of expansion joints have continuously occurred, some of which have exerted influence upon power level and have caused fatal or injury accidents of personnel, and hence the importance of corrective actions to prevent the recurrence of such events is pointed out. The importance of countermeasures to the following individual events is also pointed out: (1) corrosion of expansion joints in service water systems, (2) degradation of rubber expansion joints in main condensers, (3) vibration and fatigue of expansion joints in extraction steam lines and (4) transgranular stress corrosion cracking of penetration bellows of containments. (author)

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

PyRETIS: A well-done, medium-sized python library for rare events.

Science.gov (United States)

Lervik, Anders; Riccardi, Enrico; van Erp, Titus S

2017-10-30

Transition path sampling techniques are becoming common approaches in the study of rare events at the molecular scale. More efficient methods, such as transition interface sampling (TIS) and replica exchange transition interface sampling (RETIS), allow the investigation of rare events, for example, chemical reactions and structural/morphological transitions, in a reasonable computational time. Here, we present PyRETIS, a Python library for performing TIS and RETIS simulations. PyRETIS directs molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in order to sample rare events with unbiased dynamics. PyRETIS is designed to be easily interfaced with any molecular simulation package and in the present release, it has been interfaced with GROMACS and CP2K, for classical and ab initio MD simulations, respectively. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The role of suspension events in cross-shore and longshore suspended sediment transport in the surf zone

Science.gov (United States)

Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

Suspension of sand in the surf zone is intermittent. Especially striking in a time series of concentration are periods of intense suspension, suspension events, when the water column suspended sediment concentration is an order of magnitude greater than the mean concentration. The prevalence, timing, and contribution of suspension events to cross-shore and longshore suspended sediment transport are explored using field data collected in the inner half of the surf zone during a large storm at Duck, NC. Suspension events are defined as periods when the concentration is above a threshold. Events tended to occur during onshore flow under the wave crest, resulting in an onshore contribution to the suspended sediment transport. Even though large events occurred less than 10 percent of the total time, at some locations onshore transport associated with suspension events was greater than mean-current driven offshore-directed transport during non-event periods, causing the net suspended sediment transport to be onshore. Events and fluctuations in longshore velocity were not correlated. However, events did increase the longshore suspended sediment transport by approximately the amount they increase the mean concentration, which can be up to 35%. Because of the lack of correlation, the longshore suspended sediment transport can be modeled without considering the details of the intensity and time of events as the vertical integration of the product of the time-averaged longshore velocity and an event-augmented time-averaged concentration. However, to accurately model cross-shore suspended sediment transport, the timing and intensity of suspension events must be reproduced.

Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

1997-12-31

A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

Reactive GTS Allocation Protocol for Sporadic Events Using the IEEE 802.15.4

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mukhtar Azeem

2014-01-01

by the IEEE 802.15.4 standard. The proposed control protocol ensures that a given offline sporadic schedule can be adapted online in a timely manner such that the static periodic schedule has not been disturbed and the IEEE 802.15.4 standard compliance remains intact. The proposed protocol is simulated in OPNET. The simulation results are analyzed and presented in this paper to prove the correctness of the proposed protocol regarding the efficient real-time sporadic event delivery along with the periodic event propagation.

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

Science.gov (United States)

Ivančan-Picek, Branka; Tudor, Martina; Horvath, Kristian; Stanešić, Antonio; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan

2016-12-01

The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2 km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2 km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions

The DO-climate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. D. Ditlevsen

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The significance of the apparent 1470 years cycle in the recurrence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events, observed in the Greenland ice cores, is debated. Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence. This is also the case for the GISP2 dating, except in the case where the DO9 event is omitted from the record.

Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip, India during monsoon and extreme events

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Aboobacker, V.M.; Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.

and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked...

Event Index - a LHCb Event Search System

CERN Document Server

INSPIRE-00392208; Kazeev, Nikita; Redkin, Artem

2015-12-23

LHC experiments generate up to $10^{12}$ events per year. This paper describes Event Index - an event search system. Event Index's primary function is quickly selecting subsets of events from a combination of conditions, such as the estimated decay channel or stripping lines output. Event Index is essentially Apache Lucene optimized for read-only indexes distributed over independent shards on independent nodes.

Trend analysis of nuclear reactor automatic trip events subjected to operator's human error at United States nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takagawa, Kenichi

2009-01-01

Trends in nuclear reactor automatic trip events due to human errors during plant operating mode have been analyzed by extracting 20 events which took place in the United States during the period of seven years from 2002 to 2008, cited in the LERs (Licensee Event Reports) submitted to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It was shown that the yearly number of events was relatively large before 2005, and thereafter the number decreased. A period of stable operation, in which the yearly number was kept very small, continued for about three years, and then the yearly number turned to increase again. Before 2005, automatic trip events occurred more frequently during periodic inspections or start-up/shut-down operations. The recent trends, however, indicate that trip events became more frequent due to human errors during daily operations. Human errors were mostly caused by the self-conceit and carelessness of operators through the whole period. The before mentioned trends in the yearly number of events might be explained as follows. The decrease in the automatic trip events is attributed to sharing trouble information, leading as a consequence to improvement of the manual and training for the operations which have a higher potential risk of automatic trip. Then, while the period of stable operation continued, some operators came to pay less attention to preventing human errors and not interest in the training, leading to automatic trip events in reality due to miss-operation. From these analyses on trouble experiences in the US, we learnt the followings to prevent the occurrence similar troubles in Japan: Operators should be thoroughly skilled in basic actions to prevent human errors as persons concerned. And it should be further emphasized that they should elaborate by imaging actual plant operations even though the simulator training gives them successful experiences. (author)

Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

Science.gov (United States)

Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

2017-07-01

We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

Short-term memory for event duration: modality specificity and goal dependency.

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Kohske; Watanabe, Katsumi

2012-11-01

Time perception is involved in various cognitive functions. This study investigated the characteristics of short-term memory for event duration by examining how the length of the retention period affects inter- and intramodal duration judgment. On each trial, a sample stimulus was followed by a comparison stimulus, after a variable delay period (0.5-5 s). The sample and comparison stimuli were presented in the visual or auditory modality. The participants determined whether the comparison stimulus was longer or shorter than the sample stimulus. The distortion pattern of subjective duration during the delay period depended on the sensory modality of the comparison stimulus but was not affected by that of the sample stimulus. When the comparison stimulus was visually presented, the retained duration of the sample stimulus was shortened as the delay period increased. Contrarily, when the comparison stimulus was presented in the auditory modality, the delay period had little to no effect on the retained duration. Furthermore, whenever the participants did not know the sensory modality of the comparison stimulus beforehand, the effect of the delay period disappeared. These results suggest that the memory process for event duration is specific to sensory modality and that its performance is determined depending on the sensory modality in which the retained duration will be used subsequently.

Event segmentation ability uniquely predicts event memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Sargent, Jesse Q; Zacks, Jeffrey M; Hambrick, David Z; Zacks, Rose T; Kurby, Christopher A; Bailey, Heather R; Eisenberg, Michelle L; Beck, Taylor M

2013-11-01

Memory for everyday events plays a central role in tasks of daily living, autobiographical memory, and planning. Event memory depends in part on segmenting ongoing activity into meaningful units. This study examined the relationship between event segmentation and memory in a lifespan sample to answer the following question: Is the ability to segment activity into meaningful events a unique predictor of subsequent memory, or is the relationship between event perception and memory accounted for by general cognitive abilities? Two hundred and eight adults ranging from 20 to 79years old segmented movies of everyday events and attempted to remember the events afterwards. They also completed psychometric ability tests and tests measuring script knowledge for everyday events. Event segmentation and script knowledge both explained unique variance in event memory above and beyond the psychometric measures, and did so as strongly in older as in younger adults. These results suggest that event segmentation is a basic cognitive mechanism, important for memory across the lifespan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proarrhythmic potential of dronedarone: emerging evidence from spontaneous adverse event reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, David P; Hiatt, William R; Krantz, Mori J

2012-08-01

To characterize the frequency and type of cardiac events, including torsade de pointes, associated with dronedarone and its structural analog, amiodarone, outside of the clinical trial setting. Retrospective analysis. Spontaneous reports in the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) database generated between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2011. All reports of adverse events during the study period were reviewed to identify cardiac events associated with any approved drug in the United States. The type and number of cardiac events associated with dronedarone and amiodarone were determined. Active ingredients were identified using the Drugs@FDA database, and the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) was used to aggregate related adverse events. To avoid redundant reporting, all statistics were generated in reference to unique case identifiers. Dronedarone was associated with more adverse cardiovascular event reports than amiodarone (810 vs 493 reports) during the study period. Dronedarone was also associated with the most reports of torsade de pointes of any approved drug in the United States (37 reports), followed by amiodarone (29 reports). Reports of ventricular arrhythmias and cardiac arrest (138 vs 113 reports) as well as heart failure (179 vs 126 reports) were more common with dronedarone than amiodarone. Dronedarone was associated with reports of ventricular arrhythmia, cardiac arrest, and torsade de pointes in clinical practice. Whether this observation accounts for the increased risk of fatal arrhythmia observed in a recent prospective trial requires further investigation. © 2012 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Pc 5 event of November 14--15, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higbie, P.R.; Baker, D.N.; Zwickl, R.D.; Belian, R.D.; Asbridge, J.R.; Fennell, J.F.; Wilken, B.; Arthur, C.W.

1982-01-01

Large-amplitude Pc 5 waves with 7--8 min quasi-periodic variations were observed almost continuously for the 48 hours of November 14--15, 1979, by several spacecraft in or near geostationary orbit on the dayside portions of their orbits. The waves were observed as large modulations in both the electron and ion fluxes over a wide range of energies (approx.1 to 500 keV) by the spacecraft 1976--059, 1977-007, 1979-053, P78-2, and GEOS 2 and as magnetic field peak-to-peak modulations of 15--25 γ by the P78-2 and GOES 2 and 3 magnetometers. The remarkably long persistence of these waves contrasts substantially with observations of typical flux modulation events which usually last less than 1 hour and which typically show little modulation of the > or =150 keV proton fluxes. Data taken concurrently by the ISEE spacecraft in the solar wind and outer magnetosphere indicate that the solar wind also had unusually properties. ISEE 3 measurements indicate that the solar wind velocity (approx.350 km/s) and density (approx.2 cm -3 ) were simultaneously very low for this period. The alpha-to-proton ratio for the solar wind plasma attained an extremely low value (<1%) early in the event. These solar wind properties imply such a much reduced dynamic pressure on the magnetosphere during this period. Consequently, the ISEE 1 and 2 spacecraft passed through the magnetopause at the uncommonly large radial distance of 18 R/sub E/ at approx.0830 local time where the typical magnetopause geocentric distance is 12 R/sub E/. The exceptional solar wind and outer magnetospheric conditions may have determined the unusual properties of the ULF event observed near geostationary orbit. Some candidate mechanisms for producing these oscillations are presented, but no definitive explanation for this event can be given at present

Rising cyclin-CDK levels order cell cycle events.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Oikonomou

Full Text Available Diverse mitotic events can be triggered in the correct order and time by a single cyclin-CDK. A single regulator could confer order and timing on multiple events if later events require higher cyclin-CDK than earlier events, so that gradually rising cyclin-CDK levels can sequentially trigger responsive events: the "quantitative model" of ordering.This 'quantitative model' makes predictions for the effect of locking cyclin at fixed levels for a protracted period: at low cyclin levels, early events should occur rapidly, while late events should be slow, defective, or highly variable (depending on threshold mechanism. We titrated the budding yeast mitotic cyclin Clb2 within its endogenous expression range to a stable, fixed level and measured time to occurrence of three mitotic events: growth depolarization, spindle formation, and spindle elongation, as a function of fixed Clb2 level. These events require increasingly more Clb2 according to their normal order of occurrence. Events occur efficiently and with low variability at fixed Clb2 levels similar to those observed when the events normally occur. A second prediction of the model is that increasing the rate of cyclin accumulation should globally advance timing of all events. Moderate (<2-fold overexpression of Clb2 accelerates all events of mitosis, resulting in consistently rapid sequential cell cycles. However, this moderate overexpression also causes a significant frequency of premature mitoses leading to inviability, suggesting that Clb2 expression level is optimized to balance the fitness costs of variability and catastrophe.We conclude that mitotic events are regulated by discrete cyclin-CDK thresholds. These thresholds are sequentially triggered as cyclin increases, yielding reliable order and timing. In many biological processes a graded input must be translated into discrete outputs. In such systems, expression of the central regulator is likely to be tuned to an optimum level, as we

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation, March 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-05-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Operations Analysis Center (NOAC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule. The LER summaries in this report are arranged alphabetically by facility name and then chronologically by event date for each facility. Component, system, keyword, and component vendor indexes follow the summaries. Vendors are those identified by the utility when the LER form is initiated; the keywords for the component, system, and general keyword indexes are assigned by the computer using correlation tables from the Sequence Coding and Search System

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation, April 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule. The LER summaries in this report are arranged alphabetically by facility name and then chronologically by event date for each facility. Component, system, keyword, and component vendor indexes follow the summaries. Vendors are those identified by the utility when the LER form is initiated; the keywords for the component, system, and general keyword indexes are assigned by the computer using correlation tables from the Sequence Coding and Search System

Aortic events in a nationwide Marfan syndrome cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Groth, Kristian A; Stochholm, Kirstine; Hove, Hanne; Kyhl, Kasper; Gregersen, Pernille A; Vejlstrup, Niels; Østergaard, John R; Gravholt, Claus H; Andersen, Niels H

2017-02-01

Marfan syndrome is associated with morbidity and mortality due to aortic dilatation and dissection. Preventive aortic root replacement has been the standard treatment in Marfan syndrome patients with aortic dilatation. In this study, we present aortic event data from a nationwide Marfan syndrome cohort. The nationwide cohort of Danish Marfan syndrome patients was established from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Cause of Death Register, where we retrieved information about aortic surgery and dissections. We associated aortic events with age, sex, and Marfan syndrome diagnosis prior or after the first aortic event. From the total cohort of 412 patients, 150 (36.4 %) had an aortic event. Fifty percent were event free at age 49.6. Eighty patients (53.3 %) had prophylactic surgery and seventy patients (46.7 %) a dissection. The yearly event rate was 0.02 events/year/patient in the period 1994-2014. Male patients had a significant higher risk of an aortic event at a younger age with a hazard ratio of 1.75 (CI 1.26-2.42, p = 0.001) compared with women. Fifty-three patients (12.9 %) were diagnosed with MFS after their first aortic event which primarily was aortic dissection [n = 44 (83.0 %)]. More than a third of MFS patients experienced an aortic event and male patients had significantly more aortic events than females. More than half of the total number of dissections was in patients undiagnosed with MFS at the time of their event. This emphasizes that diagnosing MFS is lifesaving and improves mortality risk by reducing the risk of aorta dissection.

Life events and escape in conversion disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, T R; Aybek, S; Craig, T; Harris, T; Wojcik, W; David, A S; Kanaan, R A

2016-09-01

Psychological models of conversion disorder (CD) traditionally assume that psychosocial stressors are identifiable around symptom onset. In the face of limited supportive evidence such models are being challenged. Forty-three motor CD patients, 28 depression patients and 28 healthy controls were assessed using the Life Events and Difficulties Schedule in the year before symptom onset. A novel 'escape' rating for events was developed to test the Freudian theory that physical symptoms of CD could provide escape from stressors, a form of 'secondary gain'. CD patients had significantly more severe life events and 'escape' events than controls. In the month before symptom onset at least one severe event was identified in 56% of CD patients - significantly more than 21% of depression patients [odds ratio (OR) 4.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.56-13.70] and healthy controls (OR 5.81, 95% CI 1.86-18.2). In the same time period 53% of CD patients had at least one 'high escape' event - again significantly higher than 14% in depression patients (OR 6.90, 95% CI 2.05-23.6) and 0% in healthy controls. Previous sexual abuse was more commonly reported in CD than controls, and in one third of female patients was contextually relevant to life events at symptom onset. The majority (88%) of life events of potential aetiological relevance were not identified by routine clinical assessments. Nine per cent of CD patients had no identifiable severe life events. Evidence was found supporting the psychological model of CD, the Freudian notion of escape and the potential aetiological relevance of childhood traumas in some patients. Uncovering stressors of potential aetiological relevance requires thorough psychosocial evaluation.

A real-time assessment of factors influencing medication events.

Science.gov (United States)

Dollarhide, Adrian W; Rutledge, Thomas; Weinger, Matthew B; Fisher, Erin Stucky; Jain, Sonia; Wolfson, Tanya; Dresselhaus, Timothy R

2014-01-01

Reducing medical error is critical to improving the safety and quality of healthcare. Physician stress, fatigue, and excessive workload are performance-shaping factors (PSFs) that may influence medical events (actual administration errors and near misses), but direct relationships between these factors and patient safety have not been clearly defined. This study assessed the real-time influence of emotional stress, workload, and sleep deprivation on self-reported medication events by physicians in academic hospitals. During an 18-month study period, 185 physician participants working at four university-affiliated teaching hospitals reported medication events using a confidential reporting application on handheld computers. Emotional stress scores, perceived workload, patient case volume, clinical experience, total sleep, and demographic variables were also captured via the handheld computers. Medication event reports (n = 11) were then correlated with these demographic and PSFs. Medication events were associated with 36.1% higher perceived workload (p sleep (p = .10). These results confirm the effect of factors influencing medication events, and support attention to both provider and hospital environmental characteristics for improving patient safety. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

The significant event compilation tree-sect: Theory and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishack, G.A.

1990-01-01

The Significant Event Compilation Tree (SECT) is a computer programme that was developed by staff of the Canadian Atomic Energy Control Board during the period 1984-86. Its primary purpose is to link seemingly unrelated events, or parts of events, that could have occurred at different points in time at various nuclear power plants. Using such a software tool aids in the identification of potential paths and/or scenarios that: a. may not have been foreseen in the accident analysis (including fault tree verification), b. could lead to a certain failure; or c. could have been caused by a certain initiating event (which may have ended or been terminated at an earlier stage). This paper describes: a. the basic idea of SECT; b. the criteria whereby events are selected and coded; c. the options available to the user; d. an example of the programme's application in Canada; and e. a demonstration of its possible use in conjunction with the NEA-IRS

Cyclic Sequences, Events and Evolution of the Sino-Korean Plate,with a Discussion on the Evolution of Molar-tooth Carbonates,Phosphorites and Source Rocks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

MENG Xianghua; GE Ming

2003-01-01

This paper gives an account of the research that the authors conducted on the cyclic sequences, events and evolutionary history from Proterozoic to Meso-Cenozoic in the Sino-Korean plate based on the principle of the Cosmos-Earth System. The authors divided this plate into 20 super-cyclic or super-mega-cyclic periods and more than 100 Oort periods. The research focused on important sea flooding events, uplift interruption events, tilting movement events, molar-tooth carbonate events, thermal events, polarity reversal events, karst events, volcanic explosion events and storm events, as well as types of resource areas and paleotectonic evolution. By means of the isochronous theory of the Cosmos-Earth System periodicity and based on long-excentricity and periodicity, the authors elaborately studied the paleogeographic evolution of the aulacogen of the Sino-Korean plate, the oolitic beach platform formation, the development of foreland basin and continental rift valley basin, and reconstructed the evolution of tectonic paleogeography and stratigraphic framework in the Sino-Korean plate in terms of evolutionary maps. Finally, the authors gave a profound discussion on the formation and development of molar-tooth carbonates, phosphorites and source rocks.

Adaptation to Motherhood in the Postpartum Period and the Nurse's Role

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerime Derya Beydag

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Pregnancy is a physiologic event that can be experienced by every woman in her childbearing years. Although the person experiencing pregnancy physiologically is a woman, this event affects others close to the pregnant woman. In addition to the physiologic changes that occur during pregnancy the pregnant woman, her husband and other family members experience many psychological and social changes and feel a need to adapt to these changes. For this reason the period of pregnancy can be a crisis period for the woman and her family. Mothers who give birth in Turkey are generally discharged 24 hours later from the hospital. This period postpartum is not enough time to support the mother's adaptation to her new condition. The first day after delivery the care that the mother, who is in the middle of deep interactions with health care personnel, receives from her family as well as health care personnel, especially the nurses, is very important in helping her adapt to the postpartum period. Nurses/midwives are located in primary care clinics and prenatal and postpartum clinics together with mothers. Problems with adaptation in the postpartum period occur when the mothers leave the health care institution (4-6 weeks postpartum. Mothers are at home in this period and there is a possibility that they may miss symptoms and the possibility of making an early diagnosis. For this reason, it is important for mothers to be evaluated for risk factors in the postpartum period and for necessary precautions to be made in the early period. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2007; 6(6: 479-484

Toward regional corrections of long period CMT inversions using InSAR

Science.gov (United States)

Shakibay Senobari, N.; Funning, G.; Ferreira, A. M.

2017-12-01

One of InSAR's main strengths, with respect to other methods of studying earthquakes, is finding the accurate location of the best point source (or `centroid') for an earthquake. While InSAR data have great advantages for study of shallow earthquakes, the number of earthquakes for which we have InSAR data is low, compared with the number of earthquakes recorded seismically. And though improvements to SAR satellite constellations have enhanced the use of InSAR data during earthquake response, post-event data still have a latency on the order of days. On the other hand, earthquake centroid inversion methods using long period seismic data (e.g. the Global CMT method) are fast but include errors caused by inaccuracies in both the Earth velocity model and in wave propagation assumptions (e.g. Hjörleifsdóttir and Ekström, 2010; Ferreira and Woodhouse, 2006). Here we demonstrate a method that combines the strengths of both methods, calculating regional travel-time corrections for long-period waveforms using accurate centroid locations from InSAR, then applying these to other events that occur in the same region. Our method is based on the observation that synthetic seismograms produced from InSAR source models and locations match the data very well except for some phase shifts (travel time biases) between the two waveforms, likely corresponding to inaccuracies in Earth velocity models (Weston et al., 2014). Our previous work shows that adding such phase shifts to the Green's functions can improve the accuracy of long period seismic CMT inversions by reducing tradeoffs between the moment tensor components and centroid location (e.g. Shakibay Senobari et al., AGU Fall Meeting 2015). Preliminary work on several pairs of neighboring events (e.g. Landers-Hector Mine, the 2000 South Iceland earthquake sequences) shows consistent azimuthal patterns of these phase shifts for nearby events at common stations. These phase shift patterns strongly suggest that it is possible to

Real-Time Magnitude Characterization of Large Earthquakes Using the Predominant Period Derived From 1 Hz GPS Data

Science.gov (United States)

Psimoulis, Panos A.; Houlié, Nicolas; Behr, Yannik

2018-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems' performance is driven by the trade-off between the need for a rapid alert and the accuracy of each solution. A challenge for many EEW systems has been the magnitude saturation for large events (MW > 7) and the resulting underestimation of seismic moment magnitude. In this study, we test the performance of high-rate (1 Hz) GPS, based on seven seismic events, to evaluate whether long-period ground motions can be measured well enough to infer reliably earthquake predominant periods. We show that high-rate GPS data allow the computation of a GPS-based predominant period (τg) to estimate lower bounds for the magnitude of earthquakes and distinguish between large (MW > 7) and great (MW > 8) events and thus extend the capability of EEW systems for larger events. It has also identified the impact of the different values of the smoothing factor α on the τg results and how the sampling rate and the computation process differentiate τg from the commonly used τp.

Variability of inter-team distances associated with match events in elite-standard soccer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frencken, Wouter; De Poel, Harjo; Visscher, Chris; Lemmink, Koen

2012-01-01

In soccer, critical match events like goal attempts can be preceded by periods of instability in the balance between the two teams' behaviours. Therefore, we determined periods of high variability in the distance between the teams' centroid positions longitudinally and laterally in an

Nonlinear impacts of small-scale natural events on Nineteenth Century human decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, S. M.; Schlichting, K. M.; Urbanova, T.; Allen, T. L.; Ruffing, C. M.; Hermans, C. M.

2009-12-01

Natural climatological events that occurred throughout the Nineteenth Century, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes had long-lived, far-reaching consequences on the human decision-making processes occurring in the northeast United States. These events impacted the hydrological cycle, both directly -though the building of various structures- and indirectly - through an increased understanding of science; and the changing relationship between humans and their environment. This paper examines these events and associated processes through: 1) identifying specific natural events throughout the time period, occurring globally, with initial conditions conducive to long-lived consequences; 2) examining the relationship between scientific enquiry, natural events and the proliferation of dams in the northeast landscape; and 3) the growth of public health concerns, awareness of bacteriology, and municipal water supply systems. Results of this research indicate that the relationship between knowledge systems, natural events and subsequent engineering or technological fixes is complex and highly dependent on initial conditions. It highlights the time period where humans became increasingly dependent on engineered solutions to environmental problems, many of which still hold fast in our contemporary landscape. It is relevant to natural, social and governance structures in place today. The principles behind the occurrence of the natural phenomena and subsequent research and design have not changed; and understanding key events or stages in the past is tantamount to making predictions for the future.

Review of events at large pool-type irradiators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trager, E.A. Jr.

1989-03-01

Large pool-type gamma irradiators are used in applications such as the ''cold'' sterilization of medical and pharmaceutical supplies, and recent changes in federal regulations make it possible they will be used extensively in the preservation of foodstuffs. Because of this possible large increase in the use of irradiators, the Office of Nuclear Materials Safety and Safeguards was interested in knowing what events had occurred at irradiators. The event data would be used as background in developing new regulations on irradiators. Therefore, AEOD began a study of the operating experience at large, wet source storage gamma irradiators. The scope of the study was to assess all available operating information on large (≥ 250,000 curie), pool-type irradiators licensed by both the NRC and the Agreement States, and events at foreign facilities. The study found that about 0.12 events have been reported per irradiator-year. Most of these events were precursor events, in that there was no evidence of damage to the radioactive sources or degradation in the level of safety of the facility. Events with more significant impacts had a reported frequency of about 0.01 event per irradiator-year. However, the actual rate of occurrence of events of concern to the staff may be higher because there are few specific reporting requirements for events at irradiators. It is suggested that during development of a regulation for large pool-type irradiators consideration be given to specifying requirements for: reporting breakdowns in access control systems; periodic inspection of the source movement and suspension system; systems to detect source leakage and product contamination; allowable pool leakage; and feedback of information on operational events involving safety-important systems

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2008-11-15

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

Increasing the Operational Value of Event Messages

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhenping; Savkli, Cetin; Smith, Dan

2003-01-01

Assessing the health of a space mission has traditionally been performed using telemetry analysis tools. Parameter values are compared to known operational limits and are plotted over various time periods. This presentation begins with the notion that there is an incredible amount of untapped information contained within the mission s event message logs. Through creative advancements in message handling tools, the event message logs can be used to better assess spacecraft and ground system status and to highlight and report on conditions not readily apparent when messages are evaluated one-at-a-time during a real-time pass. Work in this area is being funded as part of a larger NASA effort at the Goddard Space Flight Center to create component-based, middleware-based, standards-based general purpose ground system architecture referred to as GMSEC - the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center. The new capabilities and operational concepts for event display, event data analyses and data mining are being developed by Lockheed Martin and the new subsystem has been named GREAT - the GMSEC Reusable Event Analysis Toolkit. Planned for use on existing and future missions, GREAT has the potential to increase operational efficiency in areas of problem detection and analysis, general status reporting, and real-time situational awareness.

Uncertainty in return period analysis of combined sewer overflow effects using embedded Monte Carlo simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grum, M.; Aalderink, R.H.

1999-01-01

The rerun periods of detrimental effects ate often used as design criteria in urban storm water management. Considerable uncertainty is associated with the models used. This is either ignored or pooled with the inherent event to event variation such as rainfall depth It is here argued that

Shallow repeating seismic events under an alpine glacier at Mount Rainier, Washington, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Thelen, Weston A.; Allstadt, Kate E.; De Angelis, Silvio; Malone, Stephen D.; Moran, Seth C.; Vidale, John

2013-01-01

We observed several swarms of repeating low-frequency (1–5 Hz) seismic events during a 3 week period in May–June 2010, near the summit of Mount Rainier, Washington, USA, that likely were a result of stick–slip motion at the base of alpine glaciers. The dominant set of repeating events ('multiplets') featured >4000 individual events and did not exhibit daytime variations in recurrence interval or amplitude. Volcanoes and glaciers around the world are known to produce seismic signals with great variability in both frequency content and size. The low-frequency character and periodic recurrence of the Mount Rainier multiplets mimic long-period seismicity often seen at volcanoes, particularly during periods of unrest. However, their near-surface location, lack of common spectral peaks across the recording network, rapid attenuation of amplitudes with distance, and temporal correlation with weather systems all indicate that ice-related source mechanisms are the most likely explanation. We interpret the low-frequency character of these multiplets to be the result of trapping of seismic energy under glacial ice as it propagates through the highly heterogeneous and attenuating volcanic material. The Mount Rainier multiplet sequences underscore the difficulties in differentiating low-frequency signals due to glacial processes from those caused by volcanic processes on glacier-clad volcanoes.

Sensor-Generated Time Series Events: A Definition Language

Science.gov (United States)

Anguera, Aurea; Lara, Juan A.; Lizcano, David; Martínez, Maria Aurora; Pazos, Juan

2012-01-01

There are now a great many domains where information is recorded by sensors over a limited time period or on a permanent basis. This data flow leads to sequences of data known as time series. In many domains, like seismography or medicine, time series analysis focuses on particular regions of interest, known as events, whereas the remainder of the time series contains hardly any useful information. In these domains, there is a need for mechanisms to identify and locate such events. In this paper, we propose an events definition language that is general enough to be used to easily and naturally define events in time series recorded by sensors in any domain. The proposed language has been applied to the definition of time series events generated within the branch of medicine dealing with balance-related functions in human beings. A device, called posturograph, is used to study balance-related functions. The platform has four sensors that record the pressure intensity being exerted on the platform, generating four interrelated time series. As opposed to the existing ad hoc proposals, the results confirm that the proposed language is valid, that is generally applicable and accurate, for identifying the events contained in the time series.

Towards cross-lingual alerting for bursty epidemic events.

Science.gov (United States)

Collier, Nigel

2011-10-06

Online news reports are increasingly becoming a source for event-based early warning systems that detect natural disasters. Harnessing the massive volume of information available from multilingual newswire presents as many challanges as opportunities due to the patterns of reporting complex spatio-temporal events. In this article we study the problem of utilising correlated event reports across languages. We track the evolution of 16 disease outbreaks using 5 temporal aberration detection algorithms on text-mined events classified according to disease and outbreak country. Using ProMED reports as a silver standard, comparative analysis of news data for 13 languages over a 129 day trial period showed improved sensitivity, F1 and timeliness across most models using cross-lingual events. We report a detailed case study analysis for Cholera in Angola 2010 which highlights the challenges faced in correlating news events with the silver standard. The results show that automated health surveillance using multilingual text mining has the potential to turn low value news into high value alerts if informed choices are used to govern the selection of models and data sources. An implementation of the C2 alerting algorithm using multilingual news is available at the BioCaster portal http://born.nii.ac.jp/?page=globalroundup.

Towards cross-lingual alerting for bursty epidemic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Collier Nigel

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Online news reports are increasingly becoming a source for event-based early warning systems that detect natural disasters. Harnessing the massive volume of information available from multilingual newswire presents as many challanges as opportunities due to the patterns of reporting complex spatio-temporal events. Results In this article we study the problem of utilising correlated event reports across languages. We track the evolution of 16 disease outbreaks using 5 temporal aberration detection algorithms on text-mined events classified according to disease and outbreak country. Using ProMED reports as a silver standard, comparative analysis of news data for 13 languages over a 129 day trial period showed improved sensitivity, F1 and timeliness across most models using cross-lingual events. We report a detailed case study analysis for Cholera in Angola 2010 which highlights the challenges faced in correlating news events with the silver standard. Conclusions The results show that automated health surveillance using multilingual text mining has the potential to turn low value news into high value alerts if informed choices are used to govern the selection of models and data sources. An implementation of the C2 alerting algorithm using multilingual news is available at the BioCaster portal http://born.nii.ac.jp/?page=globalroundup.

Event streaming in the online system

CERN Document Server

Klous, S; The ATLAS collaboration

2010-01-01

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), currently in operation at CERN in Geneva, is a circular 27-kilometer-circumference machine, accelerating bunches of protons in opposite directions. The bunches will cross at four different interaction points with a bunch-crossing frequency of 40MHz. ATLAS, the largest LHC experiment, registers the signals induced by particles traversing the detector components on each bunch crossing. When this happens a total of around 1.5MB of data are collected. This results in a data rate of around 60 TB/s flowing out of the detector. Note that the available event storage space is limited to about 6 PB per year. With an operational period of about 20 million seconds per year, this requires a data reduction factor of 200:000 in the trigger and data acquisition (TDAQ) system. Events included in the recording rate budget are already subdivided and organized by ATLAS during data acquisition. So, the TDAQ system does not only take care of data reduction, but also organizes the collected events. ...

Five-year change in morale is associated with negative life events in very old age.

Science.gov (United States)

Näsman, Marina; Niklasson, Johan; Saarela, Jan; Nygård, Mikael; Olofsson, Birgitta; Conradsson, Mia; Lövheim, Hugo; Gustafson, Yngve; Nyqvist, Fredrica

2017-10-27

The objectives were to study changes in morale in individuals 85 years and older, and to assess the effect of negative life events on morale over a five-year follow-up period. The present study is based on longitudinal data from the Umeå85+/GERDA-study, including individuals 85 years and older at baseline (n = 204). Morale was measured with the Philadelphia Geriatric Center Morale Scale (PGCMS). Negative life events were assessed using an index including 13 negative life events occurring during the follow-up period. Linear regression was used for the multivariate analyses. The majority of the sample (69.1%) had no significant changes in morale during the five-year follow-up. However, the accumulation of negative life events was significantly associated with a greater decrease in PGCMS. A higher baseline PGCMS score did not attenuate the adverse effect negative life events had on morale. Morale seemed to be mainly stable in a five-year follow-up of very old people. It seems, nonetheless, that individuals are affected by negative life events, regardless of level of morale. Preventing negative life events and supporting individuals who experience multiple negative life events could have important implications for the care of very old people.

Investigation of human performance events at French power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghertman, F.; Griffon-Fouco, M.

1985-01-01

This paper is concerned with the collection of data on human errors that occur at operating power plants. Three collection methods are used, each relating to a difference level of analysis. (1) Simplified statistical analysis of the causes of human errors: Events which have occurred at operating power plants and which are attributable to human errors are selected. The errors thus identified are analysed briefly and are described by a simplified classification, statistical analysis then being applied to find the principal factors underlying these errors. By way of example, an analysis is given of data on emergency shut-downs involving a human error component that occurred at 900 MW(e) PWR plants during 1982, 1983, 1984. (2) In-depth statistical analysis of the causes of certain human errors: The errors selected are analysed and described by means of a detailed classification. By way of example, the collection and evaluation of data on human errors occurring during periodic tests at a 900 MW(e) power plant over a period of six months are described. (3) In-depth analysis of certain events due to human errors: The events selected are analysed by means of a method which reconstitutes the multicausal aspect of the event and of each human error. By way of example, a description is given of an emergency core cooling required at a 900 MW(e) PWR plant. In conclusion, it is explained how these three methods of collection play complementary roles

VERY LONG-PERIOD PULSATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF SOLAR FLARES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tan, Baolin; Huang, Jing; Tan, Chengming; Zhang, Yin [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Yu, Zhiqiang, E-mail: bltan@nao.cas.cn [School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)

2016-12-20

Solar flares are the most powerful explosions occurring in the solar system, which may lead to disastrous space weather events and impact various aspects of our Earth. It remains a big challenge in modern astrophysics to understand the origin of solar flares and predict their onset. Based on the analysis of soft X-ray emission observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite , this work reports a new discovery of very long-periodic pulsations occurring in the preflare phase before the onset of solar flares (preflare-VLPs). These pulsations typically have periods of 8–30 min and last for about 1–2 hr. They are possibly generated from LRC oscillations of plasma loops where electric current dominates the physical process during magnetic energy accumulation in the source region. Preflare-VLPs provide essential information for understanding the triggering mechanism and origin of solar flares, and may be a convenient precursory indicator to help us respond to solar explosions and the corresponding disastrous space weather events.

Application of Discrete Event Simulation in Mine Production Forecast

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Application of Discrete Event Simulation in Mine Production Forecast. Felix Adaania Kaba, Victor Amoako Temeng, Peter Arroja Eshun. Abstract. Mine production forecast is pertinent to mining as it serves production goals for a production period. Perseus Mining Ghana Limited (PMGL), Ayanfuri, deterministically forecasts ...

The nature and causes of unintended events reported at 10 internal medicine departments.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lubberding, S.; Zwaan, L.; Timmermans, D.R.M.; Wagner, C.

2011-01-01

Objective: This study aimed to examine the nature and causes of unintended events (UEs) at internal medicine departments (IMD). Methods: An observational study was conducted at 10 IMDs in 8 Dutch hospitals. The study period per participating department was 5 to 14 weeks. During this period, staff

Logic Model Checking of Time-Periodic Real-Time Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Mihai; Gamble, Ed; Holzmann, Gerard

2012-01-01

In this paper we report on the work we performed to extend the logic model checker SPIN with built-in support for the verification of periodic, real-time embedded software systems, as commonly used in aircraft, automobiles, and spacecraft. We first extended the SPIN verification algorithms to model priority based scheduling policies. Next, we added a library to support the modeling of periodic tasks. This library was used in a recent application of the SPIN model checker to verify the engine control software of an automobile, to study the feasibility of software triggers for unintended acceleration events.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

Science.gov (United States)

Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

2015-02-24

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

Periodic gaits for the CMU Ambler

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedi, Suren N.; Mahalingam, Swaminathan

1992-02-01

The configuration of the Carnegie-Mellon University Ambler, a six-legged autonomous walking vehicle for exploring Mars, enables the recovery of a trailing leg past the leading leg to reduce the energy expenditure in terrain interactions. In this article, gaits developed for this unprecedented configuration are described. A stability criterion has been developed that ensures stability of the vehicle in the event of failure of any one of the supporting legs. Periodic gaits developed for the Ambler utilize the Ambler's unique abilities and continuously satisfy the stability criterion.

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

2017-06-01

As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

The study of past damaging hydrogeological events for damage susceptibility zonation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Petrucci

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Damaging Hydrogeological Events are defined as periods during which phenomena, such as landslides, floods and secondary floods, cause damage to people and the environment.

A Damaging Hydrogeological Event which heavily damaged Calabria (Southern Italy between December 1972, and January 1973, has been used to test a procedure to be utilised in the zonation of a province according to damage susceptibility during DHEs. In particular, we analyzed the province of Catanzaro (2391 km², an administrative district composed of 80 municipalities, with about 370 000 inhabitants.

Damage, defined in relation to the reimbursement requests sent to the Department of Public Works, has been quantified using a procedure based on a Local Damage Index. The latter, representing classified losses, has been obtained by multiplying the value of the damaged element and the percentage of damage affecting it.

Rainfall has been described by the Maximum Return Period of cumulative rainfall, for both short (1, 3, 5, 7, 10 consecutive days and long duration (30, 60, 90, 180 consecutive days, recorded during the event.

Damage index and population density, presumed to represent the location of vulnerable elements, have been referred to Thiessen polygons associated to rain gauges working at the time of the event.

The procedure allowed us to carry out a preliminary classification of the polygons composing the province according to their susceptibility to damage during DHEs. In high susceptibility polygons, severe damage occurs during rainfall characterised by low return periods; in medium susceptibility polygons maximum return period rainfall and induced damage show equal levels of exceptionality; in low susceptibility polygons, high return period rainfall induces a low level of damage.

The east and west sectors of the province show the highest susceptibility, while polygons of the N-NE sector show the lowest

Event dependent sampling of recurrent events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kvist, Tine Kajsa; Andersen, Per Kragh; Angst, Jules

2010-01-01

The effect of event-dependent sampling of processes consisting of recurrent events is investigated when analyzing whether the risk of recurrence increases with event count. We study the situation where processes are selected for study if an event occurs in a certain selection interval. Motivation...... retrospective and prospective disease course histories are used. We examine two methods to correct for the selection depending on which data are used in the analysis. In the first case, the conditional distribution of the process given the pre-selection history is determined. In the second case, an inverse...

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of October 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983.NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of October 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-11-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-1061, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73--Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System--Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of August 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-09-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of March 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-04-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one-month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERS, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-1061, Instructions for preparation of data entry sheets for licensee event reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 - Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System - Description of systems and guidelines for reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of August 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-09-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to these events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule

Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farber, G.; Matthes, H. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koln (Germany)

2001-07-01

In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, G.; Matthes, H.

2001-01-01

In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMC) from rainfall runoff on an urban highway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ju Young; Kim, Hyoungjun; Kim, Youngjin; Han, Moo Young

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the characterization of the event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff during heavy precipitation events on highways. Highway runoff quality data were collected from the 7th highway, in South Korea during 2007-2009. The samples were analyzed for runoff quantity and quality parameters such as COD cr , TSS, TPHs, TKN, NO 3 , TP, PO 4 and six heavy metals, e.g., As, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn. Analysis of resulting hydrographs and pollutant graphs indicates that the peak of the pollutant concentrations in runoff occurs 20 min after the first rainfall runoff occurrence. The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and the rainfall intensity. The results of this study can be used as a reference for water quality management of urban highways. - Research highlights: → Field test on urban highway were performed to 50 of 100 storm events for 3 years. → The peak pollutant concentrations occurs 20 min after the first runoff. → The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and rainfall intensity. → Relationship between runoff and event mean concentration for SS and COD. → A crest of the EMC by 70-80 m 3 /event and decreasing EMC after 70-80 m 3 /event. - This study investigate the characterization of the EMC of runoff during rainfall event on highway.

Cardiovascular and metabolic adaptations in horses competing in cross-country events.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, A; Riber, C; Santisteban, R; Rubio, M D; Agüera, E I; Castejón, F M

1999-01-01

The cardiovascular and metabolic response to two cross-country events (CC*: preliminary level and CC*** advanced level) were analysed in 8 male eventing horses (4 Anglo-Hunter and 4 Anglo-Arabian). This study focused on the establishment of the main metabolic pathways involved in the muscle energy resynthesis during the competitions. Heart rate (HR) was recorded throughout the CC events. Jugular venous blood samples were withdrawn before the warm-up period, immediately after the competitions and at 5 and 10 min in the recuperation period. The following haematological parameters were studied: red blood cells (RBC), packed cell volume (PCV), haemoglobin concentration (Hb), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular haemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration (MCHC), white blood cells (WBC), and number and percentages of lymphocytes (LYM) and granulocytes and monocytes (GRAN). One fraction of blood was centrifuged and, in plasma, lactate (LA), total plasma protein (TPP) and the rate of LA disappearance were determined. The competitions induced significant increases in RBC, Hb, PCV, MCV and TPP. Plasma LA response exceeded the anaerobic threshold of 4 mmol/l, reaching a maximum level of 13.3 mmol/l. HR ranged from 140 to more than 200 bpm, peaking at 230 bpm, revealing a limitation in the oxygen supply to the working muscles. It was concluded that muscle energy resynthesis during a CC event is provided both through oxidative processes and glycolysis with LA formation. Therefore, both stamina and power exercises are required for eventing horses.

Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Capron

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka and characterized by short Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events. Recent and new results obtained on the EPICA and NorthGRIP ice cores now precisely describe the rapid variations of Antarctic and Greenland temperature during MIS 5 (73.5–123 ka, a time period corresponding to relatively high sea level. The results display a succession of abrupt events associated with long Greenland InterStadial phases (GIS enabling us to highlight a sub-millennial scale climatic variability depicted by (i short-lived and abrupt warming events preceding some GIS (precursor-type events and (ii abrupt warming events at the end of some GIS (rebound-type events. The occurrence of these sub-millennial scale events is suggested to be driven by the insolation at high northern latitudes together with the internal forcing of ice sheets. Thanks to a recent NorthGRIP-EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML common timescale over MIS 5, the bipolar sequence of climatic events can be established at millennial to sub-millennial timescale. This shows that for extraordinary long stadial durations the accompanying Antarctic warming amplitude cannot be described by a simple linear relationship between the two as expected from the bipolar seesaw concept. We also show that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period.

[Evaluation of the notification of dysphonia on the voice profesionals as a sentinel event in Navarra. Period 2013-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Arrizabalaga Baigorri, Sara; García López, Vega

2017-07-07

Among the lesions produced by the professional use of the voice since 2007, the Vocal Nodules (VN) are recognized in Spain as an Occupational Disease. With the aim of promoting its notification in Navarre, the Sentinel Program was incorporated in 2013 and, with this study, we seek to verify its efficacy. The study population were voice professionals reported for dysphonia as sentinel events during the years 2013 to 2015 in Navarre. Its effectiveness was validated by the cumulative incidence of 100,000 workers for each of the years and Positive Predictive Value as an indicator of suspicion. The declaration was verified as an occupational disease. In the period April 2013 to December, 110 cases were reported, 71 nominal and 39 non-nominal. The annual incidence increased from 9.0 cases per 100,000 to 13.4. Of the cases investigated, 63 were women and 8 men. The mean age was 40.8 years (38.5-43.1 95% CI). 58 cases (81.7%) corresponded to teachers. In 22 of the 71 nodules (31%) and 9 coincidences were notified as an occupational disease. We found a greater presence of nodules in professionals with extra work use of voice (OR 4.2 IC 1.3-14.3) and better evolution of pathologies other than VN (OR = 2.5 CI 1.1-5.8 ). The suspicion was confirmed as occupational in 54 cases (positive predictive value 76.1%). The centinel program is effective in reporting dysphonia although it is important to highlight the low declaration as occupational disease of the cases detected.

The use of historical data for the characterisation of multiple damaging hydrogeological events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Petrucci

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Landslides, floods and secondary floods (hereinafter called phenomena triggered by rainfall and causing extensive damage are reviewed in this paper. Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs are defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena. A method for the characterisation of DHEs based upon historic data is proposed. The method is aimed at assessing DHE-related hazard in terms of recurrence, severity, damage, and extent of the affected area. Using GIS, the DHEs historical and climatic data collection, the geomorphological and hydrogeological characterisation of the hit areas, the characterisation of induced damage, the evaluation of triggering rainfall return period and critical duration of each DHE were carried out. The approach was applied to a test site in Southern Italy (Calabria for validation purposes. A database was set up including data from 24 events which have occurred during an 80-year period. The spatial distribution of phenomena was analysed together with the return period of cumulative rainfall. The trend of the occurred phenomena was also compared with the climatic trend. Four main types of Damaging Hydrogeological Events were identified in the study area.

Event Shape Sorting: selecting events with similar evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomášik Boris

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We present novel method for the organisation of events. The method is based on comparing event-by-event histograms of a chosen quantity Q that is measured for each particle in every event. The events are organised in such a way that those with similar shape of the Q-histograms end-up placed close to each other. We apply the method on histograms of azimuthal angle of the produced hadrons in ultrarelativsitic nuclear collisions. By selecting events with similar azimuthal shape of their hadron distribution one chooses events which are likely that they underwent similar evolution from the initial state to the freeze-out. Such events can more easily be compared to theoretical simulations where all conditions can be controlled. We illustrate the method on data simulated by the AMPT model.

78 FR 68995 - Special Local Regulation; Southern California Annual Marine Events for the San Diego Captain of...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-18

... notification of this enforcement period via the Local Notice to Mariners and local advertising by the event... Broadcast Notice to Mariners or other communications coordinated by the event sponsor to grant general...

78 FR 66844 - Special Local Regulation; Southern California Annual Marine Events for the San Diego Captain of...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-07

... notification of this enforcement period via the Local Notice to Mariners and local advertising by the event... Broadcast Notice to Mariners or other communications coordinated by the event sponsor to grant general...

Multiple flux rope events at the magnetopause observations by TC-1 on 18 March 2004

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. J. Xiao

2005-11-01

Full Text Available From 23:10 to 23:50 UT on 18 March 2004, the Double Star TC-1 spacecraft detected eight flux ropes at the outbound crossing of the southern dawnside magnetopause. A notable guide field existed inside all ropes. In the mean time the Cluster spacecraft were staying in the magnetosheath and found that the events occurred under the condition of southward IMF Bz and dominant negative IMF By. There are six ropes that appeared quasi-periodically, with a repeated period being approximately 1-4 min. The last flux rope lasts for a longer time interval with a larger peak in the BN variations; it can thus be referred to as a typical FTE. The 18 March 2004 event is quite similar to the multiple flux rope event observed by Cluster on 26 January 2001 at the northern duskside high-latitude magnetopause. A detailed comparison of these two events is made in the paper. Preliminary studies imply that both of these multiple flux ropes events seem to be produced by component reconnection at the dayside low-latitude magnetopause.

Multichannel long period seismic data acquisition system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolvankar, V.G.; Rao, D.S.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses the specifications and performance of an eight channel long period seismic digital data acquisition system, which is developed and installed at Seismic Array Station, Gauribidanur, Karnataka State. The paper describes how these data in an unedited form are recorded on a single track of magnetic tape inter-mittantly, which has resulted in recording of 50 days data on a single tapespool. A time indexing technique which enables quick access to any desired portion of a recorded tape is also discussed. Typical examples of long period seismic event signals recorded by this system are also illustrated. Various advantages, the system provides over the analog multichannel instrumentation tape recording system, operating at Seismic Array Station for th e last two decades, are also discussed. (author). 7 figs

Evolution of risk assessment strategies for food and feed uses of stacked GM events

OpenAIRE

Kramer, Catherine; Brune, Phil; McDonald, Justin; Nesbitt, Monique; Sauve, Alaina; Storck?Weyhermueller, Sabine

2016-01-01

Summary Data requirements are not harmonized globally for the regulation of food and feed derived from stacked genetically modified (GM) events, produced by combining individual GM events through conventional breeding. The data required by some regulatory agencies have increased despite the absence of substantiated adverse effects to animals or humans from the consumption of GM crops. Data from studies conducted over a 15?year period for several stacked GM event maize (Zea mays L.) products (...

The detection of a change point in periodic gamma ray data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, F.; De Jager, O.C.; Schultz, D.M.

1990-01-01

We present a method which can identify the start- and end times of a periodic burst of gamma rays. The assumption is that the periodic light curve has power in the fundamental harmonic and that the noise (i.e. cosmic ray) contribution is relatively high. No a priori knowledge of the burst properties is required. The significance of such a burst is also estimated, provided that the total number of events in the entire data set to be analysed is given beforehand. (orig.)

WILBER and PyWEED: Event-based Seismic Data Request Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Falco, N.; Clark, A.; Trabant, C. M.

2017-12-01

WILBER and PyWEED are two user-friendly tools for requesting event-oriented seismic data. Both tools provide interactive maps and other controls for browsing and filtering event and station catalogs, and downloading data for selected event/station combinations, where the data window for each event/station pair may be defined relative to the arrival time of seismic waves from the event to that particular station. Both tools allow data to be previewed visually, and can download data in standard miniSEED, SAC, and other formats, complete with relevant metadata for performing instrument correction. WILBER is a web application requiring only a modern web browser. Once the user has selected an event, WILBER identifies all data available for that time period, and allows the user to select stations based on criteria such as the station's distance and orientation relative to the event. When the user has finalized their request, the data is collected and packaged on the IRIS server, and when it is ready the user is sent a link to download. PyWEED is a downloadable, cross-platform (Macintosh / Windows / Linux) application written in Python. PyWEED allows a user to select multiple events and stations, and will download data for each event/station combination selected. PyWEED is built around the ObsPy seismic toolkit, and allows direct interaction and control of the application through a Python interactive console.

Remembering the past and imagining the future: common and distinct neural substrates during event construction and elaboration

OpenAIRE

Addis, Donna Rose; Wong, Alana T.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2006-01-01

People can consciously re-experience past events and pre-experience possible future events. This fMRI study examined the neural regions mediating the construction and elaboration of past and future events. Participants were cued with a noun for 20 seconds and instructed to construct a past or future event within a specified time period (week, year, 5–20 years). Once participants had the event in mind, they made a button press and for the remainder of the 20 seconds elaborated on the event. Im...

Building a Catalog of Time-Dependent Inversions for Cascadia ETS Events

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlow, N. M.; Williams, C. A.; Wallace, L. M.

2017-12-01

Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS), composed of periodically occurring slow slip events accompanied by tectonic tremor, have been recognized in Cascadia since 1999. While the tremor has been continuously and automatically monitored for a few years (Wech et al., SRL, 2010; pnsn.org/tremor), the geodetically-derived slip has not been systematically monitored in the same way. Instead, numerous time-dependent and static inversions of the geodetic data have been performed for individual ETS events, with many events going unstudied. Careful study of, and monitoring of, ETS is important both to advance the scientific understanding of fault mechanics and to improve earthquake hazard forecasting in Cascadia. Here we present the results of initial efforts to standardize geodetic inversions of slow slip during Cascadia ETS. We use the Network Inversion Filter (NIF, Segall and Matthews,1997; McGuire and Segall, 2003; Miyazaki et al.,2006), applied evenly to an extended time period, to detect and catalog slow slip transients. Bartlow et al., 2014, conducted a similar study for the Hikurangi subduction zone, covering a 2.5 year period. Additionally, we generate Green's functions using the PyLith finite element code (Aagaard et al., 2013) to allow consideration of elastic property variations derived from a Cascadia-wide seismic velocity model (Stephenson, USGS pub., 2007). These Green's functions are then integrated to provide Green's functions compatible with the Network Inversion Filter. The use of heterogeneous elastic Green's functions allows for a more accurate estimation of slip amplitudes, both during individual ETS events and averaged over multiple events. This is useful for constraining the total slip budget in Cascadia, including whether ETS takes up the entire plate motion on the deeper extent of the plate interface where it occurs. The recent study of Williams and Wallace, GRL, 2015 demonstrated that the use heterogeneous elastic Green's Functions in inversions can make a

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

Science.gov (United States)

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Optimising secondary prevention in the acute period following a TIA of ischaemic origin.

Science.gov (United States)

Heron, Neil

2016-01-01

Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are highly prevalent conditions, with at least 46 000 people per year in the UK having a TIA for the first time. TIAs are a warning that the patient is at risk of further vascular events and the 90-day risk of vascular events following a TIA, excluding events within the first week after diagnosis when the risk is highest, can be as high as 18%. Immediate assessment of patients with TIA, either at accident and emergency, general practice and/or TIA clinics, is therefore required to address secondary prevention and prevent further vascular events. This article addresses the need for optimising secondary prevention in the acute period following a TIA of ischaemic origin to reduce the risk of further vascular events as per recent Cochrane review advice and presents a novel project, Stroke Prevention Rehabilitation Intervention Trial of Exercise (SPRITE), to do this. One novel way to tackle vascular risk factors and promote secondary prevention in patients with TIA could be to adapt a cardiac rehabilitation programme for these patients. SPRITE, a feasibility and pilot study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02712385) funded by the National Institute for Health Research, is attempting to adapt a home-based cardiac rehabilitation programme, 'The Healthy Brain Rehabilitation Manual', for use in the acute period following a TIA. The use of cardiac rehabilitation programmes post-TIA requires further research, particularly within the primary care setting.

Financial impact of inaccurate Adverse Event recording post Hip Fracture surgery: Addendum to 'Adverse event recording post hip fracture surgery'.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Matthew J; Doody, Kevin; Mohamed, Khalid M S; Butler, Audrey; Street, John; Lenehan, Brian

2018-02-15

A study in 2011 by (Doody et al. Ir Med J 106(10):300-302, 2013) looked at comparing inpatient adverse events recorded prospectively at the point of care, with adverse events recorded by the national Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE) System. In the study, a single-centre University Hospital in Ireland treating acute hip fractures in an orthopaedic unit recorded 39 patients over a 2-month (August-September 2011) period, with 55 adverse events recorded prospectively in contrast to the HIPE record of 13 (23.6%) adverse events. With the recent change in the Irish hospital funding model from block grant to an 'activity-based funding' on the basis of case load and case complexity, the hospital financial allocation is dependent on accurate case complexity coding. A retrospective assessment of the financial implications of the two methods of adverse incident recording was carried out. A total of €39,899 in 'missed funding' for 2 months was calculated when the ward-based, prospectively collected data was compared to the national HIPE data. Accurate data collection is paramount in facilitating activity-based funding, to improve patient care and ensure the appropriate allocation of resources.

Event generators for address event representation transmitters

Science.gov (United States)

Serrano-Gotarredona, Rafael; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares Barranco, Bernabe

2005-06-01

Address Event Representation (AER) is an emergent neuromorphic interchip communication protocol that allows for real-time virtual massive connectivity between huge number neurons located on different chips. By exploiting high speed digital communication circuits (with nano-seconds timings), synaptic neural connections can be time multiplexed, while neural activity signals (with mili-seconds timings) are sampled at low frequencies. Also, neurons generate 'events' according to their activity levels. More active neurons generate more events per unit time, and access the interchip communication channel more frequently, while neurons with low activity consume less communication bandwidth. In a typical AER transmitter chip, there is an array of neurons that generate events. They send events to a peripheral circuitry (let's call it "AER Generator") that transforms those events to neurons coordinates (addresses) which are put sequentially on an interchip high speed digital bus. This bus includes a parallel multi-bit address word plus a Rqst (request) and Ack (acknowledge) handshaking signals for asynchronous data exchange. There have been two main approaches published in the literature for implementing such "AER Generator" circuits. They differ on the way of handling event collisions coming from the array of neurons. One approach is based on detecting and discarding collisions, while the other incorporates arbitration for sequencing colliding events . The first approach is supposed to be simpler and faster, while the second is able to handle much higher event traffic. In this article we will concentrate on the second arbiter-based approach. Boahen has been publishing several techniques for implementing and improving the arbiter based approach. Originally, he proposed an arbitration squeme by rows, followed by a column arbitration. In this scheme, while one neuron was selected by the arbiters to transmit his event out of the chip, the rest of neurons in the array were

The effectiveness of airline pilot training for abnormal events.

Science.gov (United States)

Casner, Stephen M; Geven, Richard W; Williams, Kent T

2013-06-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of airline pilot training for abnormal in-flight events. Numerous accident reports describe situations in which pilots responded to abnormal events in ways that were different from what they had practiced many times before. One explanation for these missteps is that training and testing for these skills have become a highly predictable routine for pilots who arrive to the training environment well aware of what to expect. Under these circumstances, pilots get plentiful practice in responding to abnormal events but may get little practice in recognizing them and deciding which responses to offer. We presented 18 airline pilots with three abnormal events that are required during periodic training and testing. Pilots were presented with each event under the familiar circumstances used during training and also under less predictable circumstances as they might occur during flight. When presented in the routine ways seen during training, pilots gave appropriate responses and showed little variability. However, when the abnormal events were presented unexpectedly, pilots' responses were less appropriate and showed great variability from pilot to pilot. The results suggest that the training and testing practices used in airline training may result in rote-memorized skills that are specific to the training situation and that offer modest generalizability to other situations. We recommend a more complete treatment of abnormal events that allows pilots to practice recognizing the event and choosing and recalling the appropriate response. The results will aid the improvement of existing airline training practices.

Disentangling the effects of low self-esteem and stressful events on depression: findings from three longitudinal studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Meier, Laurenz L

2009-08-01

Diathesis-stress models of depression suggest that low self-esteem and stressful events jointly influence the development of depressive affect. More specifically, the self-esteem buffering hypothesis states that, in the face of challenging life circumstances, individuals with low self-esteem are prone to depression because they lack sufficient coping resources, whereas those with high self-esteem are able to cope effectively and consequently avoid spiraling downward into depression. The authors used data from 3 longitudinal studies of adolescents and young adults, who were assessed 4 times over a 3-year period (Study 1; N = 359), 3 times over a 6-week period (Study 2; N = 249), and 4 times over a 6-year period (Study 3; N = 2,403). In all 3 studies, low self-esteem and stressful events independently predicted subsequent depression but did not interact in the prediction. Thus, the results did not support the self-esteem buffering hypothesis but suggest that low self-esteem and stressful events operate as independent risk factors for depression. In addition, the authors found evidence in all 3 studies that depression, but not low self-esteem, is reciprocally related to stressful events, suggesting that individuals high in depression are more inclined to subsequently experience stressful events.

July 1974 solar events: a possible lower limit for microwave activity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaufmann, P; Iacomo, P Jr; Koppe, E H; Marques dos Santos, P; Schaal, R E [Universidade Mackenzie, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Centro de Radio-Astronomia e Astrofisica; Blakey, J R [Surrey Univ., Guildford (UK). Dept. of Physics

1975-11-01

The active region McMath 10433 was the source of several flares and radio outbursts during the early part of July 1974. This region was tracked continuously, for several periods during the month at 22.2 GHz using a telescope with a 4 minutes of arc beam. Comparison with the results obtained simultaneously with a normal 7 GHz solar instrument indicate that there is important burst activity occurring at levels below the detection limit of normal solar patrol instruments. The time-development morphology of these bursts is similar to those normally observed and has enabled the simple events to be re-interpreted. A completely new type of event-the fast absorption-has also been recognized. The correlation of the microwave events with SPA events observed on VLF propagation is also discussed.

The effect of sporting events on emergency department attendance rates in a district general hospital in Northern Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

McGreevy, A; Millar, L; Murphy, B; Davison, G W; Brown, R; O'Donnell, M E

2010-10-01

Previous studies have reported a conflicting relationship between the effect of live and televised sporting events on attendance rates to emergency departments (ED). The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship of major sporting events on emergency department attendance rates and to determine the potential effects of such events on service provision. A retrospective analysis of ED attendances to a district general hospital (DGH) and subsequent admissions over a 24-h period following live and televised sporting activities was performed over a 5-year period. Data were compiled from the hospital's emergency record books including the number of attendances, patient demographics, clinical complaint and outcome. Review patients were excluded. Analysis of sporting events was compiled for live local, regional and national events as well as world-wide televised sporting broadcasts. A total of 137,668 (80,445 men) patients attended from April 2002 to July 2007. Mean attendance rate per day was 80 patients (men = 47). Mean admission rate was 13.6 patients per day. Major sporting events during the study period included; Soccer: 4 FA Cup and 1 World Cup (WC) finals; Rugby: 47 Six Nations, 25 Six nations games involving Ireland, 1 WC final, 2 WC semi-finals, 2 WC quarter-finals and 4 WC games involving Ireland; and Gaelic Football [Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA)]: 5 All-Ireland finals, 11 semi-finals, 11 quarter-finals and 5 provincial finals. There was a significantly higher patient admission rate during the soccer FA Cup final, Rugby Six Nations and games involving Ireland and for GAA semi- and quarter-final games (p = 0.001-0.01). There was no difference identified in total attendance or non-admission rates for sporting events throughout the study period. Although there was no correlation identified between any of these sporting events and total emergency department attendances (r 0.07), multinomial logistic regression demonstrated that FA Cup final (p

Suicide in Relation to the Experience of Stressful Life Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fjeldsted, Rita; Teasdale, Thomas William; Jensen, Martin

2017-01-01

Stressful life events have been associated with high risk of suicidal behavior. The aim of this study was to examine whether persons who died by suicide in Denmark had more frequently been exposed to stressful life events, specifically divorce, death of a close relative, exposure to violence......, and imprisonment, when compared to gender and age-matched controls. Data from Danish national registers were obtained for the period of 2000-2010 and a nested case-control design was applied. The association between exposure to stressful life events and suicide was examined using logistic regression analysis...... compared to controls. People who died by suicide had 1.5-fold (CI-95%: 1.3-1.6) higher risk of having experienced a divorce. Stressful life events, such as divorce and imprisonment, were more frequent in temporal proximity to the date of death among the suicide cases than for end of exposure for controls...

Assessment of the Chile 2010 and Japan 2011 Tsunami Events in the Galapagos Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Renteria, Willington; Lynett, Patrick

2015-04-01

The object of this study is to present an analysis of measurements and observations from the Chile 2010 and Japan 2011 tsunamis, in order to understand the particular response of the Galápagos Islands to the occurrence of these extreme events. There was very limited data measured in the Galápagos during the tsunami events, other than a high-frequency and continuous record of each event logged at the two tidal gauge stations. With this data, a wavelet analysis is performed with the aim of discriminating different patterns in wave periods along the record of observation and to recognize the frequency response of the islands to an incoming tsunami. During both events, a clear and persistent signal is found in the period range of ten to twelve minutes for Baltra tide gauge, and in the range of seventeen to twenty minutes for Santa Cruz tide gauge. Both of these persistent signals are speculated to be a shelf resonant mode particular to the Galápagos Islands and the Galápagos Platform.

Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

2015-03-01

Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

SENTINEL EVENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Robida

2004-09-01

Full Text Available Background. The Objective of the article is a two year statistics on sentinel events in hospitals. Results of a survey on sentinel events and the attitude of hospital leaders and staff are also included. Some recommendations regarding patient safety and the handling of sentinel events are given.Methods. In March 2002 the Ministry of Health introduce a voluntary reporting system on sentinel events in Slovenian hospitals. Sentinel events were analyzed according to the place the event, its content, and root causes. To show results of the first year, a conference for hospital directors and medical directors was organized. A survey was conducted among the participants with the purpose of gathering information about their view on sentinel events. One hundred questionnaires were distributed.Results. Sentinel events. There were 14 reports of sentinel events in the first year and 7 in the second. In 4 cases reports were received only after written reminders were sent to the responsible persons, in one case no reports were obtained. There were 14 deaths, 5 of these were in-hospital suicides, 6 were due to an adverse event, 3 were unexplained. Events not leading to death were a suicide attempt, a wrong side surgery, a paraplegia after spinal anaesthesia, a fall with a femoral neck fracture, a damage of the spleen in the event of pleural space drainage, inadvertent embolization with absolute alcohol into a femoral artery and a physical attack on a physician by a patient. Analysis of root causes of sentinel events showed that in most cases processes were inadequate.Survey. One quarter of those surveyed did not know about the sentinel events reporting system. 16% were having actual problems when reporting events and 47% beleived that there was an attempt to blame individuals. Obstacles in reporting events openly were fear of consequences, moral shame, fear of public disclosure of names of participants in the event and exposure in mass media. The majority of

NEUROENDOCRINE FUNCTIONS OF PUERPERAE WITH POSTPARTUM DEPRESSION AGGRAVATED BY STRESSFUL CHILDBIRTH-RELATED EVENTS.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, W; Yu, S

2015-01-01

In the period of gestation, delivery and post-delivery, fear and tension produced in puerperae are likely to evolve into depression as they worry too much about delivery pain. In recent years, it has been noted that stressful events during this period aggravate postpartum depression. To discuss the effect of these childbirth-related stressful events on neuroendocrine functions of patients with postpartum depression, 300 full-term puerperae who had been admitted to the Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Capital Medical University between October, 2011 and October, 2013 and who had suffered from stressful childbirth-related events were enrolled as a study group. This group was divided into six subgroups, i.e., A, B, C, D, E and F, based on the number of stressful events they had suffered which were labeled by numbers 1 to 6. Additionally, 100 puerperae from the same hospital who had not suffered from childbirth-related stressful events were taken as controls. Relevant clinical indexes, including serum adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), plasma 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), noradrenaline ELISA (NE), dopamine (DA) and cortisol level were measured and compared. It was found that incidence probability of postpartum depression was significantly different between the study group (13.67%, 41/300) and the control group (7%, 7/100). Moreover, the incidence probability of postpartum depression of puerperae suffering from no less than 4 childbirth-related stressful events was higher than those suffering from no more than 3, and the difference was statistically significant (Pdepression.

The periodic structure of the natural record, and nonlinear dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, H.R.

1987-01-01

This paper addresses how nonlinear dynamics can contribute to interpretations of the geologic record and evolutionary processes. Background is given to explain why nonlinear concepts are important. A resume of personal research is offered to illustrate why I think nonlinear processes fit with observations on geological and cosmological time series data. The fabric of universal periodicity arrays generated by nonlinear processes is illustrated by means of a simple computer mode. I conclude with implications concerning patterns of evolution, stratigraphic boundary events, and close correlations of major geologically instantaneous events (such as impacts or massive volcanic episodes) with any sharply defined boundary in the geologic column. - from Author

An Autonomous System for Grouping Events in a Developing Aftershock Sequence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, D. B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dodge, D. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2011-03-22

We describe a prototype detection framework that automatically clusters events in real time from a rapidly unfolding aftershock sequence. We use the fact that many aftershocks are repetitive, producing similar waveforms. By clustering events based on correlation measures of waveform similarity, the number of independent event instances that must be examined in detail by analysts may be reduced. Our system processes array data and acquires waveform templates with a short-term average (STA)/long-term average (LTA) detector operating on a beam directed at the P phases of the aftershock sequence. The templates are used to create correlation-type (subspace) detectors that sweep the subsequent data stream for occurrences of the same waveform pattern. Events are clustered by association with a particular detector. Hundreds of subspace detectors can run in this framework a hundred times faster than in real time. Nonetheless, to check the growth in the number of detectors, the framework pauses periodically and reclusters detections to reduce the number of event groups. These groups define new subspace detectors that replace the older generation of detectors. Because low-magnitude occurrences of a particular signal template may be missed by the STA/LTA detector, we advocate restarting the framework from the beginning of the sequence periodically to reprocess the entire data stream with the existing detectors. We tested the framework on 10 days of data from the Nevada Seismic Array (NVAR) covering the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. One hundred eighty-four automatically generated detectors produced 676 detections resulting in a potential reduction in analyst workload of up to 73%.

Event-by-event simulation of quantum phenomena

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raedt, H. De; Raedt, K. De; Michielsen, K.; Landau, DP; Lewis, SP; Schuttler, HB

2006-01-01

In various basic experiments in quantum physics, observations are recorded event-by-event. The final outcome of such experiments can be computed according to the rules of quantum theory but quantum theory does not describe single events. In this paper, we describe a stimulation approach that does

Construction and updating of a public events questionnaire for repeated measures longitudinal studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martha eNoone

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Impairments of retrospective memory and cases of retrograde amnesia are often seen in clinical settings. A measure of the proportion of memories retained over a specified time can be useful in clinical situations and public events questionnaires may be valuable in this respect. However, consistency of retention of public events memory has rarely been studied in the same participants. In addition, when used in a research context, public events questionnaires require updating to ensure questions are of equivalent age with respect to when the test is taken. This paper describes an approach to constructing and updating a Public Events Questionnaire (PEQ for use with a sample that is recruited and followed-up over a long time-period. Internal consistency, parallel-form reliability, test-retest reliability and secondary validity analyses were examined for three versions of the PEQ that were updated every six months. Versions 2 and 3 of the questionnaire were reliable across and within versions and for recall and recognition. Change over time was comparable across each version of the PEQ. These results show that PEQs can be regularly updated in a standardised fashion to allow use throughout studies with long recruitment periods.

Construction and updating of a public events questionnaire for repeated measures longitudinal studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Noone, Martha; Semkovska, Maria; Carton, Mary; Dunne, Ross; Horgan, John-Paul; O'Kane, Breige; McLoughlin, Declan M

2014-01-01

Impairments of retrospective memory and cases of retrograde amnesia are often seen in clinical settings. A measure of the proportion of memories retained over a specified time can be useful in clinical situations and public events questionnaires may be valuable in this respect. However, consistency of retention of public events memory has rarely been studied in the same participants. In addition, when used in a research context, public events questionnaires require updating to ensure questions are of equivalent age with respect to when the test is taken. This paper describes an approach to constructing and updating a Public Events Questionnaire (PEQ) for use with a sample that is recruited and followed-up over a long time-period. Internal consistency, parallel-form reliability, test-retest reliability, and secondary validity analyses were examined for three versions of the PEQ that were updated every 6 months. Versions 2 and 3 of the questionnaire were reliable across and within versions and for recall and recognition. Change over time was comparable across each version of the PEQ. These results show that PEQs can be regularly updated in a standardized fashion to allow use throughout studies with long recruitment periods.

The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Science.gov (United States)

Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Vitt, Francis M.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Randall, Cora E.; Fleming, Eric L.; Frith, Stacey M.

2008-01-01

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated

High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. G. Donat

2011-10-01

Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

Periodic Recurrence Patterns In X-Ray Solar Flare Appearances

Science.gov (United States)

Gyenge, N.; Erdélyi, R.

2018-06-01

The temporal recurrence of micro-flare events is studied for a time interval before and after of major solar flares. Our sample is based on the X-ray flare observations by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The analyzed data contain 1330/301 M-class and X-class GOES/RHESSI energetic solar flares and 4062/4119 GOES/RHESSI micro-flares covering the period elapse since 2002. The temporal analysis of recurrence, by Fast Fourier Transform, of the micro-flares, shows multiple significant periods. Based on the GOES and RHESSI data, the temporal analysis also demonstrates that multiple periods manifest simultaneously in both statistical samples without any significant shift over time. In the GOES sample, the detected significant periods are: 11.33, 5.61, 3.75, 2.80, and 2.24 minutes. The RHESSI data show similar significant periods at 8.54, 5.28, 3.66, 2.88, and 2.19 minutes. The periods are interpreted as signatures of standing oscillations, with the longest period (P 1) being the fundamental and others being higher harmonic modes. The period ratio of the fundamental and higher harmonics (P 1/P N ) is also analyzed. The standing modes may be signatures of global oscillations of the entire solar atmosphere encompassing magnetized plasma from the photosphere to the corona in active regions.

Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

2015-09-14

Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

Estimate of neutrons event-by-event in DREAM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptman, John

2009-01-01

We have measured the contribution of neutrons to hadronic showers in the DREAM module event-by-event as a means to estimate the event-by-event fluctuations in binding energy losses by hadrons as they break up nuclei of the Cu absorber. We make a preliminary assessment of the consequences for hadronic energy resolution in dual-readout calorimeters.

Sampled-data consensus in switching networks of integrators based on edge events

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Feng; Meng, Xiangyu; Chen, Tongwen

2015-02-01

This paper investigates the event-driven sampled-data consensus in switching networks of multiple integrators and studies both the bidirectional interaction and leader-following passive reaction topologies in a unified framework. In these topologies, each information link is modelled by an edge of the information graph and assigned a sequence of edge events, which activate the mutual data sampling and controller updates of the two linked agents. Two kinds of edge-event-detecting rules are proposed for the general asynchronous data-sampling case and the synchronous periodic event-detecting case. They are implemented in a distributed fashion, and their effectiveness in reducing communication costs and solving consensus problems under a jointly connected topology condition is shown by both theoretical analysis and simulation examples.

The Astronomical Pulse of Global Extinction Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David F.V. Lewis

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The linkage between astronomical cycles and the periodicity of mass extinctions is reviewed and discussed. In particular, the apparent 26 million year cycle of global extinctions may be related to the motion of the solar system around the galaxy, especially perpendicular to the galactic plane. The potential relevance of Milankovitch cycles is also explored in the light of current evidence for the possible causes of extinction events over a geological timescale.

A new event detector designed for the Seismic Research Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Murdock, James N.; Hutt, Charles R.

1983-01-01

A new short-period event detector has been implemented on the Seismic Research Observatories. For each signal detected, a printed output gives estimates of the time of onset of the signal, direction of the first break, quality of onset, period and maximum amplitude of the signal, and an estimate of the variability of the background noise. On the SRO system, the new algorithm runs ~2.5x faster than the former (power level) detector. This increase in speed is due to the design of the algorithm: all operations can be performed by simple shifts, additions, and comparisons (floating point operations are not required). Even though a narrow-band recursive filter is not used, the algorithm appears to detect events competitively with those algorithms that employ such filters. Tests at Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory on data supplied by Blandford suggest performance commensurate with the on-line detector of the Seismic Data Analysis Center, Alexandria, Virginia.

Effect of the sub-threshold periodic current forcing on the regularity and the synchronization of neuronal spiking activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozer, Mahmut; Uzuntarla, Muhammet; Agaoglu, Sukriye Nihal

2006-01-01

We first investigate the amplitude effect of the subthreshold periodic forcing on the regularity of the spiking events by using the coefficient of variation of interspike intervals. We show that the resonance effect in the coefficient of variation, which is dependent on the driving frequency for larger membrane patch sizes, disappears when the amplitude of the subthreshold forcing is decreased. Then, we demonstrate that the timings of the spiking events of a noisy and periodically driven neuron concentrate on a specific phase of the stimulus. We also show that increasing the intensity of the noise causes the phase probability density of the spiking events to get smaller values, and eliminates differences in the phase locking behavior of the neuron for different patch sizes

A Study of Stochastic Resonance in the Periodically Forced Rikitake Dynamo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chien-Chih Chen Chih-Yuan Tseng

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The geodynamo has widely been thought to be an intuitive and selfsustained model of the Earth¡¦s magnetic field. In this paper, we elucidate how a periodic signal could be embedded in the geomagnetic filed via the mechanism of stochastic resonance in a forced Rikitake dynamo. Based on the stochastic resonance observed in the periodically forced Rikitake dynamo, we thus suggest a common triggering for geomagnetic reversal and glacial events. Both kinds of catastrophes may result from the cyclic variation of the Earth¡¦s orbital eccentricity.

Event Investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korosec, D.

2000-01-01

The events in the nuclear industry are investigated from the license point of view and from the regulatory side too. It is well known the importance of the event investigation. One of the main goals of such investigation is to prevent the circumstances leading to the event and the consequences of the event. The protection of the nuclear workers against nuclear hazard, and the protection of general public against dangerous effects of an event could be achieved by systematic approach to the event investigation. Both, the nuclear safety regulatory body and the licensee shall ensure that operational significant events are investigated in a systematic and technically sound manner to gather information pertaining to the probable causes of the event. One of the results should be appropriate feedback regarding the lessons of the experience to the regulatory body, nuclear industry and general public. In the present paper a general description of systematic approach to the event investigation is presented. The systematic approach to the event investigation works best where cooperation is present among the different divisions of the nuclear facility or regulatory body. By involving management and supervisors the safety office can usually improve their efforts in the whole process. The end result shall be a program which serves to prevent events and reduce the time and efforts solving the root cause which initiated each event. Selection of the proper method for the investigation and an adequate review of the findings and conclusions lead to the higher level of the overall nuclear safety. (author)

Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

Science.gov (United States)

Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

2013-05-01

The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a

Effect of lunar phase on frequency of psychogenic nonepileptic events in the EMU.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolen, Robert D; Campbell, Zeke; Dennis, William A; Koontz, Elizabeth H; Pritchard, Paul B

2016-06-01

Studies of the effect of a full moon on seizures have yielded mixed results, despite a continuing prevailing belief regarding the association of lunar phase with human behavior. The potential effect of a full moon on psychogenic nonepileptic events has not been as well studied, despite what anecdotal accounts from most epilepsy monitoring unit (EMU) staff would suggest. We obtained the dates and times of all events from patients diagnosed with psychogenic nonepileptic events discharged from our EMU over a two-year period. The events were then plotted on a 29.5-day lunar calendar. Events were also broken down into lunar quarters for statistical analysis. We found a statistically significant increase in psychogenic nonepileptic events during the new moon quarter in our EMU during our studied timeframe. Our results are not concordant with the results of a similarly designed past study, raising the possibility that psychogenic nonepileptic events are not influenced by lunar phase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aquatic chemistry of flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

2015-04-01

During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and

Period-dependent source rupture behavior of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated by multi period-band Bayesian waveform inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Previous studies for the period-dependent source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (e.g., Koper et al., 2011; Lay et al., 2012) were based on the short and long period source models using different method. Kubo et al. (2013) obtained source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using multi period-bands waveform data by a common inversion method and discussed its period-dependent source characteristics. In this study, to achieve more in detail spatiotemporal source rupture behavior of this event, we introduce a new fault surface model having finer sub-fault size and estimate the source models in multi period-bands using a Bayesian inversion method combined with a multi-time-window method. Three components of velocity waveforms at 25 stations of K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net of NIED are used in this analysis. The target period band is 10-100 s. We divide this period band into three period bands (10-25 s, 25-50 s, and 50-100 s) and estimate a kinematic source model in each period band using a Bayesian inversion method with MCMC sampling (e.g., Fukuda & Johnson, 2008; Minson et al., 2013, 2014). The parameterization of spatiotemporal slip distribution follows the multi-time-window method (Hartzell & Heaton, 1983). The Green's functions are calculated by the 3D FDM (GMS; Aoi & Fujiwara, 1999) using a 3D velocity structure model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012). The assumed fault surface model is based on the Pacific plate boundary of JIVSM and is divided into 384 subfaults of about 16 * 16 km^2. The estimated source models in multi period-bands show the following source image: (1) First deep rupture off Miyagi at 0-60 s toward down-dip mostly radiating relatively short period (10-25 s) seismic waves. (2) Shallow rupture off Miyagi at 45-90 s toward up-dip with long duration radiating long period (50-100 s) seismic wave. (3) Second deep rupture off Miyagi at 60-105 s toward down-dip radiating longer period seismic waves then that of the first deep rupture. (4) Deep

Trending of Events - Practical Use at Krsko NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skaler, F.; Bach, B.

2008-01-01

Krsko NPP (NEK) in 2004 developed a new application, a corrective action program (CAP) software, to acquire all events within the same environment. In 2006 NEK started to code all acquired records of the events. In 2007 NEK developed within CAP application new tools for analyzing the events. These new tools are common cause analyses Root cause, Direct causes, Processes, and Equipment failures. The new tools are user friendly and easy to use. With these new tools the useful queries are generated easily. The results are presented in graphs, which have drill down options all the way down to the reported event itself. With these new tools many common cause analyses can be done within seconds, which in the past took hours or even days. Also the department leads can easily perform common cause analyses within their departments or processes, they can compare the different periods or projects and they can look for different type of causes. NEK next step is a learning module for the department leads. They have to learn how to use these tools and to understand the results correctly. NEK has to establish the process, where these analyses can be formalized, checked and the most effective correction actions to prevent the events can be taken. Also all the process can be formalized. The presentation will explain the theory of trending the minor events and practical implementation at Krsko NPP. The presentation will also present the new tools in CAP application with some very interesting examples of common cause analyses. The presentation will explain possibilities for the future process at NEK to fully implement these tools in order to prevent the events.(author)

Analysis of geohazards events along Swiss roads from autumn 2011 to present

Science.gov (United States)

Voumard, Jérémie; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

In Switzerland, roads and railways are threatened throughout the year by several natural hazards. Some of these events reach transport infrastructure many time per year leading to the closing of transportation corridors, loss of access, deviation travels and sometimes infrastructures damages and loss of human lives (3 fatalities during the period considered). The aim of this inventory of events is to investigate the number of natural events affecting roads and railways in Switzerland since autumn 2011 until now. Natural hazards affecting roads and railway can be classified in five categories: rockfalls, landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches and floods. They potentially cause several important direct damages on transportation infrastructure (roads, railway), vehicles (slightly or very damaged) or human life (slightly or seriously injured person, death). These direct damages can be easily evaluated from press articles or from Swiss police press releases. Indirect damages such as deviation cost are not taken into account in this work. During the two a half last years, about 50 events affecting the Swiss roads and Swiss railways infrastructures were inventoried. The proportion of events due to rockfalls is 45%, to landslides 25%, to debris flows 15%, to snow avalanches 10% and to floods 5%. During this period, three fatalities and two persons were injured while 23 vehicles (car, trains and coach) and 24 roads and railways were damaged. We can see that floods occur mainly on the Swiss Plateau whereas rockfalls, debris flow, snow avalanches and landslides are mostly located in the Alpine area. Most of events occur on secondary mountain roads and railways. The events are well distributed on the whole Alpine area except for the Gotthard hotspot, where an important European North-South motorway (hit in 2003 with two fatalities) and railway (hit three times in 2012 with one fatalities) are more frequently affected. According to the observed events in border regions of

Networked event-triggered control: an introduction and research trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Magdi S.; Sabih, Muhammad

2014-11-01

A physical system can be studied as either continuous time or discrete-time system depending upon the control objectives. Discrete-time control systems can be further classified into two categories based on the sampling: (1) time-triggered control systems and (2) event-triggered control systems. Time-triggered systems sample states and calculate controls at every sampling instant in a periodic fashion, even in cases when states and calculated control do not change much. This indicates unnecessary and useless data transmission and computation efforts of a time-triggered system, thus inefficiency. For networked systems, the transmission of measurement and control signals, thus, cause unnecessary network traffic. Event-triggered systems, on the other hand, have potential to reduce the communication burden in addition to reducing the computation of control signals. This paper provides an up-to-date survey on the event-triggered methods for control systems and highlights the potential research directions.

Sediment resuspension events induced by the wake wash of deep-draft vessels

Science.gov (United States)

Garel, Erwan; López Fernández, Laura; Collins, Mike

2008-08-01

Hydrodynamics and sediment resuspension events, induced at the shoreline by a deep-draft vessel passing nearby, are described. Measurements (pressure, currents and turbidity) were obtained at 4 Hz, on a lower beach ~50 m from a channel where large car ferries operate in Wootton Creek, Isle of Wight. The study focuses on a representative 8-min 32-s-long record, during which two large vessels passed the channel section. At the shore, the passage of each vessel induced a long-period water-level drawdown, followed by a water-level oscillation (seiche) of similar period, and the short-period waves of the wake. Both drawdowns were the main constituents of the prevailing wave pattern. The second drawdown was the largest in amplitude, in response to a higher speed of the ferry, and the influence of the seiche which had been activated during the preceding event. Two successive peaks of turbidity were observed shortly after this drawdown. Analyses of current velocity and direction indicate that the sediments resuspended originated from the shallower upper beach. Anthropogenically induced erosion of the foreshore is predicted at Wootton Creek.

Period, epoch, and prediction errors of ephemerides from continuous sets of timing measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Deeg, H. J.

2015-06-01

Space missions such as Kepler and CoRoT have led to large numbers of eclipse or transit measurements in nearly continuous time series. This paper shows how to obtain the period error in such measurements from a basic linear least-squares fit, and how to correctly derive the timing error in the prediction of future transit or eclipse events. Assuming strict periodicity, a formula for the period error of these time series is derived, σP = σT (12 / (N3-N))1 / 2, where σP is the period error, σT the timing error of a single measurement, and N the number of measurements. Compared to the iterative method for period error estimation by Mighell & Plavchan (2013), this much simpler formula leads to smaller period errors, whose correctness has been verified through simulations. For the prediction of times of future periodic events, usual linear ephemeris were epoch errors are quoted for the first time measurement, are prone to an overestimation of the error of that prediction. This may be avoided by a correction for the duration of the time series. An alternative is the derivation of ephemerides whose reference epoch and epoch error are given for the centre of the time series. For long continuous or near-continuous time series whose acquisition is completed, such central epochs should be the preferred way for the quotation of linear ephemerides. While this work was motivated from the analysis of eclipse timing measures in space-based light curves, it should be applicable to any other problem with an uninterrupted sequence of discrete timings for which the determination of a zero point, of a constant period and of the associated errors is needed.

Tidal Disruption Events from Eccentric Nuclear Disks

Science.gov (United States)

Wernke, Heather N.; Madigan, Ann-Marie

2018-04-01

Stars that get too close to a supermassive black hole are in danger of being tidally disrupted. Stellar two-body relaxation is commonly assumed to be the main driver of these events. Recent work has shown, however, that secular gravitational torques from eccentric nuclear disks can push stars to extreme eccentricities at much higher rates than predicted by two-body relaxation. This work did not include the effects of general relativity, however, which could quench secular torques via rapid apsidal precession. Here we show that, for a star in danger of disruption, general relativity acts on a timescale of less than an orbital period. This short timescale means that general relativity does not have enough time to have a major effect on the orbit. When driven by secular torques from eccentric nuclear disks, tidal disruption event rates are not affected by general relativity.

Maximizing the TESS Mission’s Yield of Long-Period Planets

Science.gov (United States)

Dragomir, Diana; Gaudi, B. Scott; Villanueva, Steven; Crossfield, Ian; Huang, Xu; Ribas, Ignasi; Quinn, Samuel

2018-01-01

The upcoming TESS mission will discover thousands of transiting planets around bright stars. However, during its primary mission the satellite will observe most of the sky for just 27 days (and for at most one year even in its continuous viewing zones near the ecliptic poles), thus limiting the mission’s yield of long-period planets that show three or more transits in the TESS light curves. By also pursuing single- and double-transit events, we can increase by several hundred the number of planets with periods longer than 10 days that TESS will discover. I will show how strategic planning and the judicious use of follow-up observations can confirm these planets and refine their ephemerides. Through this program, we will generate a sample of long-period planets transiting bright stars that are ripe for detailed characterization studies such as mass measurements and atmospheric observations. In turn, these studies will provide important constraints on the composition and formation of long-period planets.

Analysis of adverse events with Essure hysteroscopic sterilization reported to the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience database.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Safi, Zain A; Shavell, Valerie I; Hobson, Deslyn T G; Berman, Jay M; Diamond, Michael P

2013-01-01

The Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience database may be useful for clinicians using a Food and Drug Administration-approved medical device to identify the occurrence of adverse events and complications. We sought to analyze and investigate reports associated with the Essure hysteroscopic sterilization system (Conceptus Inc., Mountain View, CA) using this database. Retrospective review of the Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience database for events related to Essure hysteroscopic sterilization from November 2002 to February 2012 (Canadian Task Force Classification III). Online retrospective review. Online reports of patients who underwent Essure tubal sterilization. Essure tubal sterilization. Four hundred fifty-seven adverse events were reported in the study period. Pain was the most frequently reported event (217 events [47.5%]) followed by delivery catheter malfunction (121 events [26.4%]). Poststerilization pregnancy was reported in 61 events (13.3%), of which 29 were ectopic pregnancies. Other reported events included perforation (90 events [19.7%]), abnormal bleeding (44 events [9.6%]), and microinsert malposition (33 events [7.2%]). The evaluation and management of these events resulted in an additional surgical procedure in 270 cases (59.1%), of which 44 were hysterectomies. Sixty-one unintended poststerilization pregnancies were reported in the study period, of which 29 (47.5%) were ectopic gestations. Thus, ectopic pregnancy must be considered if a woman becomes pregnant after Essure hysteroscopic sterilization. Additionally, 44 women underwent hysterectomy after an adverse event reported to be associated with the use of the device. Copyright © 2013 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perioperative adverse airway events in cleft lip and palate repair ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Airway-related problems account for the majority of anaesthetic morbidity in paediatric anaesthesia, but more so for cleft lip and palate repair. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency, pattern, management and outcome of adverse airway events during the perioperative period in cleft lip and palate ...

DROPOUT OF DIRECTIONAL ELECTRON INTENSITIES IN LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tan, Lun C. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Reames, Donald V., E-mail: ltan@umd.edu [Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2016-01-10

In the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event during solar cycle 23 we have observed the dispersionless modulation (“dropout”) in directional intensities of nonrelativistic electrons. The average duration of dropout periods is ∼0.8 hr, which is consistent with the correlation scale of solar wind turbulence. During the dropout period electrons could display scatter-free transport in an intermittent way. Also, we have observed a decrease in the anisotropic index of incident electrons with increasing electron energy (E{sub e}), while the index of scattered/reflected electrons is nearly independent of E{sub e}. We hence perform an observational examination of the correlation between the anisotropic index of low-energy scattered/reflected electrons and the signature of the locally measured solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range, which is responsible for resonant scattering of nonrelativistic electrons. Since during the dropout period the slab turbulence fraction is dominant (0.8 ± 0.1), we pay close attention to the effect of slab fraction on the correlation examined. Our observation is consistent with the simulation result that in the dominance of the slab turbulence component there should exist a dispatched structure of magnetic flux tubes, along which electrons could be transported in a scatter-free manner. Since a similar phenomenon is exhibited in the “impulsive” SEP event, electron dropout should be a transport effect. Therefore, being different from most ion dropout events, which are due to a compact flare source, the dropout of directional electron intensities should be caused by the change of turbulence status in the solar wind.

DROPOUT OF DIRECTIONAL ELECTRON INTENSITIES IN LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Lun C.; Reames, Donald V.

2016-01-01

In the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event during solar cycle 23 we have observed the dispersionless modulation (“dropout”) in directional intensities of nonrelativistic electrons. The average duration of dropout periods is ∼0.8 hr, which is consistent with the correlation scale of solar wind turbulence. During the dropout period electrons could display scatter-free transport in an intermittent way. Also, we have observed a decrease in the anisotropic index of incident electrons with increasing electron energy (E e ), while the index of scattered/reflected electrons is nearly independent of E e . We hence perform an observational examination of the correlation between the anisotropic index of low-energy scattered/reflected electrons and the signature of the locally measured solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range, which is responsible for resonant scattering of nonrelativistic electrons. Since during the dropout period the slab turbulence fraction is dominant (0.8 ± 0.1), we pay close attention to the effect of slab fraction on the correlation examined. Our observation is consistent with the simulation result that in the dominance of the slab turbulence component there should exist a dispatched structure of magnetic flux tubes, along which electrons could be transported in a scatter-free manner. Since a similar phenomenon is exhibited in the “impulsive” SEP event, electron dropout should be a transport effect. Therefore, being different from most ion dropout events, which are due to a compact flare source, the dropout of directional electron intensities should be caused by the change of turbulence status in the solar wind

Event-by-event fluctuations at SPS

CERN Document Server

Appelshauser, Harald; Adamova, D.; Agakichiev, G.; Belaga, V.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Castillo, A.; Cherlin, A.; Damjanovic, S.; Dietel, T.; Dietrich, L.; Drees, A.; Esumi, S.I.; Filimonov, K.; Fomenko, K.; Fraenkel, Z.; Garabatos, C.; Glassel, P.; Hering, G.; Holeczek, J.; Kushpil, V.; Lenkeit, B.; Ludolphs, W.; Maas, A.; Marn, A.; Milosevic, J.; Milov, A.; Miskowiec, D.; Panebrattsev, Yu.; Petchenova, O.; Petracek, V.; Pfeiffer, A.; Rak, J.; Ravinovich, I.; Rehak, P.; Schmitz, W.; Schukraft, J.; Sedykh, S.; Shimansky, S.; Slvova, J.; Stachel, J.; Sumbera, M.; Tilsner, H.; Tserruya, Itzhak; Wessels, J.P.; Wienold, T.; Windelband, B.; Wurm, J.P.; Xie, W.; Yurevich, S.; Yurevich, V.; Appelshauser, Harald; Sako, Hiro

2005-01-01

Results on event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum and net charge in Pb-Au collisions, measured by the CERES Collaboration at CERN-SPS, are presented. We discuss the centrality and beam energy dependence and compare our data to cascade calculations.

Analysis of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions at HERA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brandt, G.

2007-02-07

A study of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions is presented. Within the Standard Model (SM) such topologies are expected mainly from production of real W bosons with subsequent leptonic decay. This thesis continues the analysis of such events done in the HERA-1 period where an excess over the SM prediction was observed for events with high hadronic transverse momentum P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV. New data of the HERA-2 period are added. The analysed data sample recorded in e{sup +}p collisions corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 220 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of two more with respect to the HERA-1 analysis. The e{sup -}p data correspond to 186 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of 13 more with respect to HERA-1. All three lepton generations (electrons muons and tau leptons) are analysed. In the electron and muon channels a total of 53 events are observed in 406 pb{sup -1}. This compares well to the SM expectation of 53.7{+-}6.5 events, dominated by W production. However a difference in the event rate is observed for different electron beam charges. In e{sup +}p data the excess of events with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is sustained, while the e{sup -}p data agree with the SM. In the tau channel 18 events are observed in all HERA data, with 20{+-}3 expected from the SM. The events are dominated by irreducible background from charged currents. The contribution from W production amounts to about 22%. One event with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is observed, where 1.4{+-}0.3 are expected from the SM. (orig.)

Identification of Common Cause Initiating Events Using the NEA IRS Database. Rev 0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulig, Maciej; Tomic, Bojan; Nyman, R alph

2007-02-01

The study presented in this report is a continuation of work conducted for SKI in 1998 on the identification of Common Cause Initiators (CCIs) based on operational events documented in the NEA Incident Reporting System (IRS). Based on the new operational experience accumulated in IRS in the period 1995-2006, the project focused on the identification of new CCI events. An attempt was also made to compare the observations made in the earlier study with the results of the current work. The earlier study and the current project cover the events reported in the IRS database with the incident date in the period from 01.01.1980 to 15.11.2006. The review of the NEA IRS database conducted within this project generated a sample of events that provides insights regarding the Common Cause Initiators (CCIs). This list includes certain number of 'real' CCIs but also potential CCIs and other events that provide insights on potential dependency mechanisms. Relevant characteristics of the events were analysed in the context of CCIs. This evaluation was intended to investigate the importance of the CCI issue and also to provide technical insights that could help in the modelling the CCIs in PSAs. The analysis of operational events provided useful engineering insights regarding the potential dependencies that may originate CCIs. Some indications were also obtained on the plant SSCs/areas that are susceptible to common cause failures. Direct interrelations between the accident mitigation systems through common support systems, which can originate a CCI, represent a dominant dependency mechanism involved in the CCI events. The most important contributors of this type are electrical power supply systems and I-and-C systems. Area-related events (fire, flood, water spray), external hazards (lightning, high wind or cold weather) and transients (water hammer, electrical transients both internal and external) have also been found to be important sources of dependency that may originate CCIs

Identification of Common Cause Initiating Events Using the NEA IRS Database. Rev 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kulig, Maciej; Tomic, Bojan (Enconet Consulting, Vienna (Austria)); Nyman, Ralph (Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden))

2007-02-15

The study presented in this report is a continuation of work conducted for SKI in 1998 on the identification of Common Cause Initiators (CCIs) based on operational events documented in the NEA Incident Reporting System (IRS). Based on the new operational experience accumulated in IRS in the period 1995-2006, the project focused on the identification of new CCI events. An attempt was also made to compare the observations made in the earlier study with the results of the current work. The earlier study and the current project cover the events reported in the IRS database with the incident date in the period from 01.01.1980 to 15.11.2006. The review of the NEA IRS database conducted within this project generated a sample of events that provides insights regarding the Common Cause Initiators (CCIs). This list includes certain number of 'real' CCIs but also potential CCIs and other events that provide insights on potential dependency mechanisms. Relevant characteristics of the events were analysed in the context of CCIs. This evaluation was intended to investigate the importance of the CCI issue and also to provide technical insights that could help in the modelling the CCIs in PSAs. The analysis of operational events provided useful engineering insights regarding the potential dependencies that may originate CCIs. Some indications were also obtained on the plant SSCs/areas that are susceptible to common cause failures. Direct interrelations between the accident mitigation systems through common support systems, which can originate a CCI, represent a dominant dependency mechanism involved in the CCI events. The most important contributors of this type are electrical power supply systems and I-and-C systems. Area-related events (fire, flood, water spray), external hazards (lightning, high wind or cold weather) and transients (water hammer, electrical transients both internal and external) have also been found to be important sources of dependency that may

Characterization of a large biogenic secondary organic aerosol event from eastern Canadian forests

Science.gov (United States)

Slowik, J. G.; Stroud, C.; Bottenheim, J. W.; Brickell, P. C.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Liggio, J.; Makar, P. A.; Martin, R. V.; Moran, M. D.; Shantz, N. C.; Sjostedt, S. J.; van Donkelaar, A.; Vlasenko, A.; Wiebe, H. A.; Xia, A. G.; Zhang, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Abbatt, J. P. D.

2010-03-01

Measurements of aerosol composition, volatile organic compounds, and CO are used to determine biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations at a rural site 70 km north of Toronto. These biogenic SOA levels are many times higher than past observations and occur during a period of increasing temperatures and outflow from Northern Ontario and Quebec forests in early summer. A regional chemical transport model approximately predicts the event timing and accurately predicts the aerosol loading, identifying the precursors as monoterpene emissions from the coniferous forest. The agreement between the measured and modeled biogenic aerosol concentrations contrasts with model underpredictions for polluted regions. Correlations of the oxygenated organic aerosol mass with tracers such as CO support a secondary aerosol source and distinguish biogenic, pollution, and biomass burning periods during the field campaign. Using the Master Chemical Mechanism, it is shown that the levels of CO observed during the biogenic event are consistent with a photochemical source arising from monoterpene oxidation. The biogenic aerosol mass correlates with satellite measurements of regional aerosol optical depth, indicating that the event extends across the eastern Canadian forest. This regional event correlates with increased temperatures, indicating that temperature-dependent forest emissions can significantly affect climate through enhanced direct optical scattering and higher cloud condensation nuclei numbers.

Poisson-event-based analysis of cell proliferation.

Science.gov (United States)

Summers, Huw D; Wills, John W; Brown, M Rowan; Rees, Paul

2015-05-01

A protocol for the assessment of cell proliferation dynamics is presented. This is based on the measurement of cell division events and their subsequent analysis using Poisson probability statistics. Detailed analysis of proliferation dynamics in heterogeneous populations requires single cell resolution within a time series analysis and so is technically demanding to implement. Here, we show that by focusing on the events during which cells undergo division rather than directly on the cells themselves a simplified image acquisition and analysis protocol can be followed, which maintains single cell resolution and reports on the key metrics of cell proliferation. The technique is demonstrated using a microscope with 1.3 μm spatial resolution to track mitotic events within A549 and BEAS-2B cell lines, over a period of up to 48 h. Automated image processing of the bright field images using standard algorithms within the ImageJ software toolkit yielded 87% accurate recording of the manually identified, temporal, and spatial positions of the mitotic event series. Analysis of the statistics of the interevent times (i.e., times between observed mitoses in a field of view) showed that cell division conformed to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process in which the rate of occurrence of mitotic events, λ exponentially increased over time and provided values of the mean inter mitotic time of 21.1 ± 1.2 hours for the A549 cells and 25.0 ± 1.1 h for the BEAS-2B cells. Comparison of the mitotic event series for the BEAS-2B cell line to that predicted by random Poisson statistics indicated that temporal synchronisation of the cell division process was occurring within 70% of the population and that this could be increased to 85% through serum starvation of the cell culture. © 2015 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Wound-healing ability is conserved during periods of chronic stress and costly life history events in a wild-caught bird.

Science.gov (United States)

DuRant, S E; de Bruijn, R; Tran, M N; Romero, L M

2016-04-01

Chronic stress, potentially through the actions of corticosterone, is thought to directly impair the function of immune cells. However, chronic stress may also have an indirect effect by influencing allocation of energy, ultimately shifting resources away from the immune system. If so, the effects of chronic stress on immune responses may be greater during energetically-costly life history events. To test whether the effects of chronic stress on immune responses differ during expensive life history events we measured wound healing rate in molting and non-molting European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) exposed to control or chronic stress conditions. To determine whether corticosterone correlated with wound healing rates before starting chronic stress, we measured baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and two estimates of corticosterone release and regulation, negative feedback (using dexamethasone injection), and maximal capacity of the adrenals to secrete corticosterone (using adrenocorticotropin hormone [ACTH] injection). After 8days of exposure to chronic stress, we wounded both control and chronically stressed birds and monitored healing daily. We monitored nighttime heart rate, which strongly correlates with energy expenditure, and body mass throughout the study. Measures of corticosterone did not differ with molt status. Contrary to work on lizards and small mammals, all birds, regardless of stress or molt status, fully-healed wounds at similar rates. Although chronic stress did not influence healing rates, individuals with low baseline corticosterone or strong negative feedback had faster healing rates than individuals with high baseline corticosterone or weak negative feedback. In addition, wound healing does appear to be linked to energy expenditure and body mass. Non-molting, chronically stressed birds decreased nighttime heart rate during healing, but this pattern did not exist in molting birds. Additionally, birds of heavier body mass at the start of

Accelerator mass spectrometry: An important tool for the geochronology of past climatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jull, A.J.T.; Burr, G.S.; Beck, J.W.; Donahue, D.J.

2002-01-01

The development of a good chronology is very important to the understanding of past climatic changes and their relationship to other events. The correlation of distinct climatic features requires a precise chronology. More important also is the need to be able to correlate phenomena which are dated independently. For example, several authors have tried to cross-correlate climatic events observed in Greenland ice cores with climatic events identified in other terrestrial and marine records. The improvement in the radiocarbon calibration curve over the last 25,000 yr and the ability to cross-correlate fluctuations in the 14 C curve directly with those in the ice-core records has improved the situation. This extension of the calibration curve uses tree rings to about 11,900 calibrated years and beyond, using corals and varved marine sediments. Other records take us back to the limits of radiocarbon dating, using lake sediments and speleothems. Another important problem in geochronology of past climate change is that events may be manifest differently in different parts of the world. For example, the uniformly 'cold' younger Dryas in northern Europe can be correlated with oscillatory cold and wet behavior in other parts of the world. Chinese loess deposits show an oscillatory pattern during this time period, and the deserts of the American southwest show a drought followed by a period of increased precipitation. Hence, we must identify local and regional variations as well as global events. Many megafuana became extinct close to the end of the late Pleistocene and the exact time of these extinctions, and whether they are cause by climate alone, or by other pressures such as the expansion of humans into previously unoccupied areas. The exact timing of climatic change is also of importance in understanding the expansion of early man in the New World. The exact time of arrival of early man in the western hemisphere is usually thought to be close to the end of the last

Tropical climate and vegetation cover during Heinrich event 1: Simulations with coupled climate vegetation models

OpenAIRE

Handiani, Dian Noor

2012-01-01

This study focuses on the climate and vegetation responses to abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. Two abrupt climate events are explored: the abrupt cooling of the Heinrich event 1 (HE1), followed by the abrupt warming of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (BA). These two events are simulated by perturbing the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean, with the intention of altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and also of in...

Communication regarding the thorp event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storey, P.

2007-01-01

HSE investigated the circumstances of the leak of highly radioactive product liquor inside the cell of the THORP plant at Sellafield which went undetected for a period of approximately 9 months between 2004 and 2005. The leak resulted in 83 000 litres of the liquor being deposited on the floor of the cell and although all indications are that none of this liquor escaped into the ground and no--one was harmed, it did attract considerable media attention. HSE's Nuclear Safety Directorate instigated its own investigation which resulted in enforcement action being taken. BNG Sellafield was charged with 3 offenses under the Nuclear Installations Act 1965, pleaded guilty and was fined pounds 500 k in Crown Court in January 2007. The incident was categorized as '3' on the International Nuclear Event Scale and attracted a lot of attention in this country and abroad. The event is useful in illustrating the difficulties in handling communications related to a high hazard nuclear site which even in normal operation can attract considerable attention. The role of the safety regulator is considered. It is proposed that communications issues can be grouped in to three distinct areas; - Early information by the licensee on the incident, status of the plant etc. which would be aimed at the public and media. - Ministerial reporting and as a result reporting to OGDs and our responsibility to early notify our international neighbours. - Lessons learnt from the event which in this case are fed hack to the industry through an HSE openly published report. This presentation covers each type of communication in the context of this event and draws conclusions on what can be considered good practice and what are some of the difficulties which may need to be overcome. (author)

Event Displays for the Visualization of CMS Events

CERN Document Server

Jones, Christopher Duncan

2010-01-01

During the last year the CMS experiment engaged in consolidation of its existing event display programs. The core of the new system is based on the Fireworks event display program which was by-design directly integrated with the CMS Event Data Model (EDM) and the light version of the software framework (FWLite). The Event Visualization Environment (EVE) of the ROOT framework is used to manage a consistent set of 3D and 2D views, selection, user-feedback and user-interaction with the graphics windows; several EVE components were developed by CMS in collaboration with the ROOT project. In event display operation simple plugins are registered into the system to perform conversion from EDM collections into their visual representations which are then managed by the application. Full event navigation and filtering as well as collection-level filtering is supported. The same data-extraction principle can also be applied when Fireworks will eventually operate as a service within the full software framework.

Event Display for the Visualization of CMS Events

Science.gov (United States)

Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Eulisse, G.; Jones, C. D.; Kovalskyi, D.; McCauley, T.; Mrak Tadel, A.; Muelmenstaedt, J.; Osborne, I.; Tadel, M.; Tu, Y.; Yagil, A.

2011-12-01

During the last year the CMS experiment engaged in consolidation of its existing event display programs. The core of the new system is based on the Fireworks event display program which was by-design directly integrated with the CMS Event Data Model (EDM) and the light version of the software framework (FWLite). The Event Visualization Environment (EVE) of the ROOT framework is used to manage a consistent set of 3D and 2D views, selection, user-feedback and user-interaction with the graphics windows; several EVE components were developed by CMS in collaboration with the ROOT project. In event display operation simple plugins are registered into the system to perform conversion from EDM collections into their visual representations which are then managed by the application. Full event navigation and filtering as well as collection-level filtering is supported. The same data-extraction principle can also be applied when Fireworks will eventually operate as a service within the full software framework.

Event Display for the Visualization of CMS Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauerdick, L A T; Eulisse, G; Jones, C D; McCauley, T; Osborne, I; Kovalskyi, D; Tadel, A Mrak; Muelmenstaedt, J; Tadel, M; Tu, Y; Yagil, A

2011-01-01

During the last year the CMS experiment engaged in consolidation of its existing event display programs. The core of the new system is based on the Fireworks event display program which was by-design directly integrated with the CMS Event Data Model (EDM) and the light version of the software framework (FWLite). The Event Visualization Environment (EVE) of the ROOT framework is used to manage a consistent set of 3D and 2D views, selection, user-feedback and user-interaction with the graphics windows; several EVE components were developed by CMS in collaboration with the ROOT project. In event display operation simple plugins are registered into the system to perform conversion from EDM collections into their visual representations which are then managed by the application. Full event navigation and filtering as well as collection-level filtering is supported. The same data-extraction principle can also be applied when Fireworks will eventually operate as a service within the full software framework.

Applying Data-mining techniques to study drought periods in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Belda, F.; Penades, M. C.

2010-09-01

Data-mining is a technique that it can be used to interact with large databases and to help in the discovery relations between parameters by extracting information from massive and multiple data archives. Drought affects many economic and social sectors, from agricultural to transportation, going through urban water deficit and the development of modern industries. With these problems and drought geographical and temporal distribution it's difficult to find a single definition of drought. Improving the understanding of the knowledge of climatic index is necessary to reduce the impacts of drought and to facilitate quick decisions regarding this problem. The main objective is to analyze drought periods from 1950 to 2009 in Spain. We use several kinds of information, different formats, sources and transmission mode. We use satellite-based Vegetation Index, dryness index for several temporal periods. We use daily and monthly precipitation and temperature data and soil moisture data from numerical weather model. We calculate mainly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) that it has been used amply in the bibliography. We use OLAP-Mining techniques to discovery of association rules between remote-sensing, numerical weather model and climatic index. Time series Data- Mining techniques organize data as a sequence of events, with each event having a time of recurrence, to cluster the data into groups of records or cluster with similar characteristics. Prior climatological classification is necessary if we want to study drought periods over all Spain.

Events and mega events: leisure and business in tourism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Alexandre Paiva

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The promotion of events and mega events mobilizes at the same time, in a concatenated way or not, leisure and business practices, which are captured by the tourism industry as a stimulus for the reproduction of capitalism, by the amount of other activities which raise (primary, secondary and tertiary , placing the architecture and the city as protagonists in contemporary urban development. In this sense, the article analyzes the articulation of events and mega events to the provision of architecture and urban infrastructure, as well as the construction of the tourist image of the places, motivated by leisure and business activities. The methodological procedures have theoretical and exploratory character and have multidisciplinary intentions. This will be discussed, in a historical perspective, the concepts of leisure and business activities that raise as moving or traveling; next it will be delimited similarities and differences between tourism events and business tourism, entering after the analysis of the distinctions between events and mega events, highlighting the complexity and the role of mega-events as a major symptom of globalization; finally it will be presented the spatial scale developments in architecture and the city in the realization of (mega events, as well as its impact on the city's image. As a synthesis, it is important to notice that spatial developments business tourism, events and mega events are manifested in various scales and with different levels of complexity, revealing the strengths and / or weaknesses of the places. The urban planning, architecture and urbanism are important objects of knowledge and spatial intervention to ensure infrastructure and urban and architectural structures appropriate for events, which should be sensitive to the demands of tourists and host communities.

Type II solar radio bursts, interplanetary shocks, and energetic particle events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cane, H.V.; Stone, R.G.

1984-01-01

Using the ISEE 3 radio astronomy experiment data we have identified 37 interplanetary type II bursts in the period 1978 September to 1981 December. We lists these events and the associated phenomena. The events are preceded by intense, soft X-ray events with long decay times and type II or type IV bursts, or both, at meter wavelengths. The meter wavelength type II bursts are usually intense and exhibit herringbone structure. The extension of the herringbone structure into the kilometer wavelength range appears as a fast drift radio feature which we refer to as a shock associated radio event. The shock associated event is an important diagnostic for the presence of a strong shock and particle acceleration. The majority of the interplanetary type II bursts are associated with energetic particle events. Our results support other studies which indicate that energetic soalr particles detected at 1 A.U. are generatd by shock acceleration. From a preliminary analysis of the available data there appears to be a high correlation with white light coronal transients. The transients are fast: i.e., velocities greater than 500 km s -1

Application of traditional indexes and adverse events in the ophthalmologic perioperative medical quality evaluation during 2010-2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong-Na Bian

2015-10-01

Full Text Available AIM: To evaluate the medical quality of ophthalmologic perioperative period during 2010-2012 in our hospital.METHODS:The relevant data of perioperative period were collected in our hospital during 2010-2012, and the medical quality of perioperative period was evaluated by using the traditional evaluation indexes and adverse events. Whereby, the traditional indicators include vision changes, improving of intraocular pressure, diagnostic accordance rate before and after operation, cure improvement rate, successful rescue rate, and incidence of surgical complications, etc. Adverse events are associated with ophthalmologic perioperative events including pressure sores, postoperative wound infection, drug adverse events, and equipment related adverse events.RESULTS:There were 1483, 1662 and 1931 ophthalmic operations in our hospital in the year 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. From traditional index analysis, the proportions of vision improvement for each year were 96.43%, 96.76% and 97.32%, respectively; the rates of intraocular pressure improvement were 87.50%, 85.72% and 90.17%, respectively (P <0.05; the diagnostic accordance rates before and after operation were 99.86%, 99.94% and 99.90%, respectively; cure improvement rates were 99.73%, 99.93% and 99.84%, respectively; the successful rescue rates were 82.98%, 81.46% and 76.66%, respectively; the complications incidence rates were 18.44%, 17.52% and 17.97%, respectively. The negative factor analysis results showed that:among all the patients of ophthalmic surgeries in our hospital during 2010 and 2012, only one case of postoperative wound infection was found in 2011, and also only one case of tumbling in 2010. The adverse drug events for each year were 1 case (0.07%, 2 cases (0.12%, and 4 cases (0.21%, respectively; the medical device adverse events for each year were 3 cases (0.20%, 5 cases (0.30%, and 6 cases (0.31%, respectively. Noticeably, only one case with postoperative infection of

Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Michael V; Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M

2014-02-15

Mortality rates increase immediately after periods of high air temperature. In the days and weeks after heat events, time series may exhibit mortality displacement-periods of lower than expected mortality. We examined all-cause mortality and meteorological data from 1980 to 2009 in the cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Phoenix, Arizona; Seattle, Washington; and St. Louis, Missouri. We modeled baseline mortality using a generalized additive model. Heat waves were defined as periods of 3 or more consecutive days in which the apparent temperature exceeded a variable percentile. For each heat wave, we calculated the sum of excess and deficit mortality. Mortality displacement, which is the ratio of grand sum deficit to grand sum excess mortality, decreased as a function of event strength in all cities. Displacement was close to 1.00 for the weakest events. At the highest temperatures, displacement varied from 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.55) to 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.97). We found strong evidence of acclimatization across cities. Without consideration of displacement effects, the net impacts of heat-wave mortality are likely to be significant overestimations. A statistically significant positive relationship between the onset temperature of nondisplaced heat mortality and mean warm-season temperature (R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.01) suggests that heat mortality thresholds may be predictable across cities.

Cosmic ray event in 994 C.E. recorded in radiocarbon from Danish oak

Science.gov (United States)

Fogtmann-Schulz, A.; Østbø, S. M.; Nielsen, S. G. B.; Olsen, J.; Karoff, C.; Knudsen, M. F.

2017-08-01

We present measurements of radiocarbon in annual tree rings from the time period 980-1006 Common Era (C.E.), hereby covering the cosmic ray event in 994 C.E. The new radiocarbon record from Danish oak is based on both earlywood and latewood fractions of the tree rings, which makes it possible to study seasonal variations in 14C production. The measurements show a rapid increase of ˜10‰ from 993 to 994 C.E. in latewood, followed by a modest decline and relatively high values over the ensuing ˜10 years. This rapid increase occurs from 994 to 995 C.E. in earlywood, suggesting that the cosmic ray event most likely occurred during the period between April and June 994 C.E. Our new record from Danish oak shows strong agreement with existing Δ14C records from Japan, thus supporting the hypothesis that the 994 C.E. cosmic ray event was uniform throughout the Northern Hemisphere and therefore can be used as an astrochronological tie point to anchor floating chronologies of ancient history.

Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

Science.gov (United States)

Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

Detection of Abnormal Events via Optical Flow Feature Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian Wang

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel algorithm is proposed to detect abnormal events in video streams. The algorithm is based on the histogram of the optical flow orientation descriptor and the classification method. The details of the histogram of the optical flow orientation descriptor are illustrated for describing movement information of the global video frame or foreground frame. By combining one-class support vector machine and kernel principal component analysis methods, the abnormal events in the current frame can be detected after a learning period characterizing normal behaviors. The difference abnormal detection results are analyzed and explained. The proposed detection method is tested on benchmark datasets, then the experimental results show the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Detection of Abnormal Events via Optical Flow Feature Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tian; Snoussi, Hichem

2015-01-01

In this paper, a novel algorithm is proposed to detect abnormal events in video streams. The algorithm is based on the histogram of the optical flow orientation descriptor and the classification method. The details of the histogram of the optical flow orientation descriptor are illustrated for describing movement information of the global video frame or foreground frame. By combining one-class support vector machine and kernel principal component analysis methods, the abnormal events in the current frame can be detected after a learning period characterizing normal behaviors. The difference abnormal detection results are analyzed and explained. The proposed detection method is tested on benchmark datasets, then the experimental results show the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:25811227

Estimation of return levels against different return periods of extreme annual rainfall over Baluchistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.; Jan, B.; Iqbal, J.

2012-01-01

Unprecedented heavy monsoon rainfall began in the last week of July 2010 in the Northern part of our country, causes floods in Baluchistan and Sindh. As the high frequency rainfall events are a significant cause of current severe flooding in Pakistan and any fluctuation in the level of such events may cause huge economic losses as well as social problem, urban structures (i.e. dams, urban drainage systems and flood). Statistical distributions are used to identify extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of Baluchistan (Quetta, Sibbi, Khuzdar, Lasbella, Dalbandin and Pasni) with their return periods. Analysis predicts that Gumbel Max. (GM) Distribution is the best fitted distribution for Sibbi and Lasbella while the GEV distribution is the best fitted for Quetta, Khuzdar, Dalbandin and Pasni. The analysis also suggests that different cities of Baluchistan have 30-years return period for getting more than 90 mm average daily rainfall while they have 100-years return period for receiving more than 118 mm daily rainfall. This suggests for suitable flood forecasting and improving the river structure in Baluchistan, Pakistan. (author)

ELF whistler events with a reduced intensity observed by the DEMETER spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Zahlava, J.; Nemec, F.; Santolik, O.; Kolmasova, I.; Parrot, M.

2017-12-01

A survey of VLF frequency-time spectrograms obtained by the DEMETER spacecraft (2004-2010, altitude about 700 km) revealed that the intensity of fractional hop whistlers is sometimes significantly reduced at specific frequencies. These frequencies are typically above about 3.4 kHz (second cutoff frequency of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide), and they vary smoothly in time. The events were explained by the wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide, and a resulting interference of the first few waveguide modes. We analyze the events whose frequency-time structure is rather similar, but at frequencies below 1 kHz. Altogether, 284 events are identified during the periods with active Burst mode, when high resolution data are measured by DEMETER. The vast majority of events (93%) occurs during the nighttime. All six electromagnetic field components are available, which allows us to perform a detailed wave analysis. An overview of the properties of these events is presented, and their possible origin is discussed.

Analysis of arrhythmic events is useful to detect lead failure earlier in patients followed by remote monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishii, Nobuhiro; Miyoshi, Akihito; Kubo, Motoki; Miyamoto, Masakazu; Morimoto, Yoshimasa; Kawada, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Koji; Watanabe, Atsuyuki; Nakamura, Kazufumi; Morita, Hiroshi; Ito, Hiroshi

2018-03-01

Remote monitoring (RM) has been advocated as the new standard of care for patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic devices (CIEDs). RM has allowed the early detection of adverse clinical events, such as arrhythmia, lead failure, and battery depletion. However, lead failure was often identified only by arrhythmic events, but not impedance abnormalities. To compare the usefulness of arrhythmic events with conventional impedance abnormalities for identifying lead failure in CIED patients followed by RM. CIED patients in 12 hospitals have been followed by the RM center in Okayama University Hospital. All transmitted data have been analyzed and summarized. From April 2009 to March 2016, 1,873 patients have been followed by the RM center. During the mean follow-up period of 775 days, 42 lead failure events (atrial lead 22, right ventricular pacemaker lead 5, implantable cardioverter defibrillator [ICD] lead 15) were detected. The proportion of lead failures detected only by arrhythmic events, which were not detected by conventional impedance abnormalities, was significantly higher than that detected by impedance abnormalities (arrhythmic event 76.2%, 95% CI: 60.5-87.9%; impedance abnormalities 23.8%, 95% CI: 12.1-39.5%). Twenty-seven events (64.7%) were detected without any alert. Of 15 patients with ICD lead failure, none has experienced inappropriate therapy. RM can detect lead failure earlier, before clinical adverse events. However, CIEDs often diagnose lead failure as just arrhythmic events without any warning. Thus, to detect lead failure earlier, careful human analysis of arrhythmic events is useful. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

High success rate and considerable adverse events of pelvic prolapse surgery with Prolift: A single center experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mun-Kun Hong

2013-09-01

Conclusions: Prolapse surgery with Prolift yielded a good anatomical outcome and satisfactory symptom improvement at different periods of follow-up, especially in uterus-sparing prolapse surgery. However, adverse events were not uncommon, and patients should be fully informed of all possible adverse events prior to surgery.

ATLAS TDAQ/DCS Event Filter Event Handler Requirements

CERN Document Server

Bee, C P; Meessen, C; Qian, Z; Touchard, F; Green, P; Pinfold, J L; Wheeler, S; Negri, A; Scannicchio, D A; Vercesi, V

2002-01-01

The second iteration of the Software Development Process of the ATLAS Event Filter has been launched. A summary of the design phase of the first iteration is given in the introduction. The document gives constraints, use cases, functional and non-functional requirements for the Event Handler sub-system of the Event Filter.

Wave Refraction During the May 2002 Rarefaction Event

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, C. W.; Mullan, D. J.; Ness, N. F.; Skoug, R. M.

2002-12-01

In previous work [Smith et al., 2001] we examined IMF wave refraction during the May 1999 rarefaction interval known as ``The Day The Solar Wind Disappeared.'' On that day, Alfvén speeds remained elevated over an extended region. Analysis of the recorded ACE fields and plasma data revealed depressed magnetic fluctuation levels, reduced compression in the fluctuations, and a reduced wave-like component within the region of elevated Alfvén speed, all consistent with wave refraction. The May 2002 event provides a third such period (the second identified event occured 2 weeks prior to the May 1999 period) and it again demonstrates properties which are consistent with refraction. Smith, C.~W., D.~J. Mullan, N.~F. Ness, R.~M. Skoug, and J.~Steinberg, Day the solar wind almost disappeared: Magnetic field fluctuations, wave refraction and dissipation, J. Geophys. Res., A106, 18,625--18,634, 2001. Efforts at the Bartol Research Institute were supported by CIT subcontract PC251439 under NASA grant NAG5-6912 for support of the ACE magnetic field experiment and by the NASA Delaware Space College Grant. Work at Los Alamos was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy with financial support from the NASA ACE program.

Episodic spontaneous hypothermia: a periodic childhood syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Cynthia; Gener, Blanca; Garaizar, Carmen; Prats, José M

2003-04-01

Episodic spontaneous hypothermia is an infrequent disorder, with unknown pathogenic mechanisms. A systemic cause or underlying brain lesion has not been found for the disease. We report four new patients, 3-9 years old, with episodic hypothermia lower than 35 degrees C, marked facial pallor, and absent shivering. The episodes could last a few hours or four days, and recurred once a week or every 2-3 months. Two patients also demonstrated bradycardia, mild hypertension, and somnolence during the events; in one of them, profuse sweating was also a feature, and all four presented with either headache, a periodic childhood syndrome, or both (recurrent abdominal pain, cyclic vomiting, or vertigo). Three patients reported a family history of migraine. Neurologic examination, endocrine function, and imaging studies were normal. Migraine prophylactic therapy was of moderate efficacy. Spontaneous resolution was observed in one patient. The clinical characteristics of the syndrome allow for its inclusion as a childhood periodic syndrome related to migraine.

Event display of a H -> 4mu candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4mu candidate event with m(4l) = 124.1 (125.1) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 86.3 GeV and 31.6 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 10-Jun-2012, 13:24:31 CEST in run number 204769 as event number 71902630. Muon tracks are colored red.

Importance of historical seismicity in the evaluation of large return period hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, C.S.

1983-01-01

This paper reports the results from an historical investigation on earthquake activity in Portugal based on data collected from original sources. A detailed revision of earthquake catalogues in what concerns date of occurrence, isosseismal maps, epicentral location, magnitude and duration of vibration was made for most of the 260 events identified in the period 1000 to 1900. Introducing this new piece of information which exhibits a much higher degree of quality into standard hazard models, uncertainties on final estimates for the zones of large return periods, RP, (RP > 200 years) are greatly reduced

Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

2018-02-01

Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

2013-04-01

The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

Particle formation events measured at a semirural background site in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Fenjuan; Zhang, Zhenyi; Massling, Andreas

2013-01-01

according to 3D daily plots in combination with an automatic routine. A clear seasonal variation was found in the way that events occurred more frequently during the warm season from May to September and especially in June. The mean values of the apparent 6 nm particle formation rates, the growth rate......The particle formation and growth events observed at a semirural background site in Denmark were analyzed based on particle number size distribution data collected during the period from February 2005 to December 2010. The new particle formation (NPF) events have been classified visually in detail...... and the condensation sink were about 0.36 cm−3 s−1, 2.6 nm h−1, 4.3 × 10−3 s−1, respectively. A positive relationship of oxidation capacity (OX = O3 + NO2) of the atmosphere and the appearance of NPF events was found indicating that the oxidation of the atmosphere was linked to the formation of new particles...

Idaho National Laboratory Quarterly Event Performance Analysis FY 2013 4th Quarter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitchell, Lisbeth A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2013-11-01

This report is published quarterly by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Performance Assurance Organization. The Department of Energy Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) as prescribed in DOE Order 232.2 “Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information” requires a quarterly analysis of events, both reportable and not reportable for the previous twelve months. This report is the analysis of occurrence reports and deficiency reports (including not reportable events) identified at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during the period of October 2012 through September 2013.

SensibleSleep: A Bayesian Model for Learning Sleep Patterns from Smartphone Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cuttone, Andrea; Bækgaard, Per; Sekara, Vedran

2017-01-01

We propose a Bayesian model for extracting sleep patterns from smartphone events. Our method is able to identify individuals' daily sleep periods and their evolution over time, and provides an estimation of the probability of sleep and wake transitions. The model is fitted to more than 400...... to quantify uncertainty and encode prior knowledge about sleep patterns. Compared with existing smartphone-based systems, our method requires only screen on/off events, and is therefore much less intrusive in terms of privacy and more battery-efficient....

Potential of turbidity monitoring for real time control of pollutant discharge in sewers during rainfall events.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacour, C; Joannis, C; Gromaire, M-C; Chebbo, G

2009-01-01

Turbidity sensors can be used to continuously monitor the evolution of pollutant mass discharge. For two sites within the Paris combined sewer system, continuous turbidity, conductivity and flow data were recorded at one-minute time intervals over a one-year period. This paper is intended to highlight the variability in turbidity dynamics during wet weather. For each storm event, turbidity response aspects were analysed through different classifications. The correlation between classification and common parameters, such as the antecedent dry weather period, total event volume per impervious hectare and both the mean and maximum hydraulic flow for each event, was also studied. Moreover, the dynamics of flow and turbidity signals were compared at the event scale. No simple relation between turbidity responses, hydraulic flow dynamics and the chosen parameters was derived from this effort. Knowledge of turbidity dynamics could therefore potentially improve wet weather management, especially when using pollution-based real-time control (P-RTC) since turbidity contains information not included in hydraulic flow dynamics and not readily predictable from such dynamics.

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of September 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-10-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For these events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 50.73 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule. The LER summaries in this report are arranged alphabetically by facility name and then chronologically by event data for each facility. Component, system, keyword, and component vendor indexes follow the summaries. Vendors are those identified by the utility when the LER form is initiated; the keywords for the component, system, and general keyword indexes are assigned by the computer using correlation tables from the Sequence Coding and Search System

Licensee Event Report (LER) compilation for month of August 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-09-01

This monthly report contains Licensee Event Report (LER) operational information that was processed into the LER data file of the Nuclear Safety Information Center (NSIC) during the one month period identified on the cover of the document. The LERs, from which this information is derived, are submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) by nuclear power plant licensees in accordance with federal regulations. Procedures for LER reporting for revisions to those events occurring prior to 1984 are described in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.16 and NUREG-0161, Instructions for Preparation of Data Entry Sheets for Licensee Event Reports. For those events occurring on and after January 1, 1984, LERs are being submitted in accordance with the revised rule contained in Title 10 Part 50.73 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 5.073 -- Licensee Event Report System) which was published in the Federal Register (Vol. 48, No. 144) on July 26, 1983. NUREG-1022, Licensee Event Report System -- Description of Systems and Guidelines for Reporting, provides supporting guidance and information on the revised LER rule. The LER summaries in this report are arranged alphabetically by facility name and then chronologically by event date for each facility. Component, system, keyword, and component vendor indexes follow the summaries. Vendors are those identified by the utility when the LER form is initiated; the keywords for the component, system, and general keyword indexes are assigned by the computer using correlation tables from the Sequence Coding and Search System

Distinctiveness enhances long-term event memory in non-human primates, irrespective of reinforcement.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Amy; Call, Josep; Berntsen, Dorthe

2017-08-01

Non-human primates are capable of recalling events that occurred as long as 3 years ago, and are able to distinguish between similar events; akin to human memory. In humans, distinctiveness enhances memory for events, however, it is unknown whether the same occurs in non-human primates. As such, we tested three great ape species on their ability to remember an event that varied in distinctiveness. Across three experiments, apes witnessed a baiting event in which one of three identical containers was baited with food. After a delay of 2 weeks, we tested their memory for the location of the baited container. Apes failed to recall the baited container when the event was undistinctive (Experiment 1), but were successful when it was distinctive (Experiment 2), although performance was equally good in a less-distinctive condition. A third experiment (Experiment 3) confirmed that distinctiveness, independent of reinforcement, was a consistent predictor of performance. These findings suggest that distinctiveness may enhance memory for events in non-human primates in the same way as in humans, and provides further evidence of basic similarities between the ways apes and humans remember past events. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Plasma and field observations of a compressional Pc 5 wave event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumjohann, W.; Sckopke, N.; LaBelle, J.; Klecker, B.; Luehr, H.; Glassmeier, K.H.

1987-01-01

On October 24, 1984, the AMPTE/IRM satellite, on its inbound orbit in the 1,300 LT sector, observed a strong compressional Pc 5 event lasting for about an hour. The use of data from the full complement of detectors aboard the spacecraft allowed for detailed measurements of field and particle oscillations, with the latter covering energies from a few electron volts up to tens of keV (electrons) or even 1 MeV (protons). Both energetic proton and electron fluxes were anticorrelated with the compressional magnetic field oscillations, indicating that the event belongs to the class of in-phase events. But the energetic proton data also exhibited a new feature: Flux minima and maxima at low energies were observed somewhat later than those at higher energies. The magnetic and plasma pressure oscillations satisfy the pressure balance equation for the drift mirror mode much better than that for drift compressional Alfven waves. However, the classical criterion for the onset of the mirror instability is not satisfied. The low-energy particles showed clear signatures of gradient convection due to the wave electric field with the protons additionally undergoing gyration acceleration. The period of the pulsation decreased while the satellite was moving inward, in agreement with the individual L shell resonance model. But in contrast to earlier observations the periods of the compressional and transverse oscillations differed significantly (by ∼ 25%). The authors interpret this as Doppler shift due to spacecraft motion since in the present event the transverse oscillations did not have the purely radial (poloidal) polarization common to other published cases

Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Gräler

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

A study of charm quark production in the NOMAD event generator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyd, S.

1995-01-01

Although constructed primarily to aid in the search for neutrino oscillations, NOMAD, a counter experiment exposed to a ν m beam at the CERN SPS, is capable of making significant contributions to the study of charm quark production in ν m Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) processes. The analysis of such events, however, is dependent upon Monte Carlo simulations of the event kinematics and hence it is essential to understand the behaviour of such simulations. This talk compares data on charm production in the dimuon channel generated by the NOMAD Event Generator (NEGLIB) for an anti-neutrino beam with data collected in the CDHS experiment which ran at CERN in the period 1977-1980. Overall the two sets of data compare well, although some marked differences are observed. Several possible reasons are proposed and discussed

No interactions between genetic polymorphisms and stressful life events on outcome of antidepressant treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bukh, Jens Drachmann; Bock, Camilla; Vinberg, Maj

2009-01-01

Genetic polymorphisms seem to influence the response on antidepressant treatment and moderate the impact of stress on depression. The present study aimed to assess, whether allelic variants and stressful life events interact on the clinical outcome of depression. In a sample of 290 systematically...... recruited patients diagnosed with a single depressive episode according to ICD-10, we assessed the outcome of antidepressant treatment and the presence of stressful life events in a 6-month period preceding onset of depression by means of structured interviews. Further, we genotyped nine polymorphisms...... dependent on stressful life events experienced by the individual prior to onset of depression....

Simulation of the Tornado Event of 22 March, 2013 over ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

An attempt has been made to simulate this rare event using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model was run in a single domain at 9 km resolution for a period of 24 hrs, starting at 0000 UTC on 22 March, 2013. The meteorological conditions that led to form this tornado have been analyzed.

Solar Flare Super-Events: When they Can Occur and the Energy Limits of their Realization

Science.gov (United States)

Ishkov, Vitaly N.

2015-03-01

For the successful development of terrestrial civilization it is necessary to estimate the space factors, including phenomena on Sun, which can ruin it or cause such catastrophic loss, that the restoration to the initial level can take unacceptably long time. Super-powerful solar flares are the only such phenomena. Therefore an attempt is undertaken to estimate the possibility of such super-event occurrence at this stage of our star evolution. Since solar flare events are the consequence of the newly emerging magnetic fluxes interacting with the already existing magnetic fields of active regions, are investigated the observed cases which lead to the realization of such super-events. From the observations of the maximal magnetic fluxes during the period of reliable solar observations, the conclusion is made that the super- extreme solar flares cannot significantly exceed the most powerful solar flares which have already been observed. On the statistics of the reliable solar cycles the sunspot groups, in which occurred the most powerful solar super-events (August- September 1859 - solar cycle 10; June 1991 - SC 22; October-November 2003 - SC 23) appeared in the periods of the solar magnetic field reorganization between the epochs of "increased" and "lowered" solar activity.

Event display of a H -> 4mu candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4mu candidate event with m(4l) = 124.1 (125.1) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 86.3 GeV and 31.6 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 10-Jun-2012, 13:24:31 CEST in run number 204769 as event number 71902630. Zoom into the tracking detector. Muon tracks are colored red.

Changes in coral-associated microbial communities during a bleaching event.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourne, David; Iida, Yuki; Uthicke, Sven; Smith-Keune, Carolyn

2008-04-01

Environmental stressors such as increased sea surface temperatures are well-known for contributing to coral bleaching; however, the effect of increased temperatures and subsequent bleaching on coral-associated microbial communities is poorly understood. Colonies of the hard coral Acropora millepora were tagged on a reef flat off Magnetic Island (Great Barrier Reef) and surveyed over 2.5 years, which included a severe bleaching event in January/February 2002. Daily average water temperatures exceeded the previous 10-year average by more than 1 degrees C for extended periods with field-based visual surveys recording all tagged colonies displaying signs of bleaching. During the bleaching period, direct counts of coral zooxanthellae densities decreased by approximately 64%, before recovery to pre-bleaching levels after the thermal stress event. A subset of three tagged coral colonies were sampled through the bleaching event and changes in the microbial community elucidated. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis demonstrated conserved bacterial banding profiles between the three coral colonies, confirming previous studies highlighting specific microbial associations. As coral colonies bleached, the microbial community shifted and redundancy analysis (RDA) of DGGE banding patterns revealed a correlation of increasing temperature with the appearance of Vibrio-affiliated sequences. Interestingly, this shift to a Vibrio-dominated community commenced prior to visual signs of bleaching. Clone libraries hybridized with Vibrio-specific oligonucleotide probes confirmed an increase in the fraction of Vibrio-affiliated clones during the bleaching period. Post bleaching, the coral microbial associations again shifted, returning to a profile similar to the fingerprints prior to bleaching. This provided further evidence for corals selecting and shaping their microbial partners. For non-bleached samples, a close association with Spongiobacter-related sequences were

Early response to sibutramine in patients not meeting current label criteria: preliminary analysis of SCOUT lead-in period

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Caterson, Ian; Coutinho, Walmir; Finer, Nick

2010-01-01

pulse rate increases; median 1.5 bpm (nonconformers) vs. 3.0 bpm (conformers). There was a low incidence of serious adverse events (conformers: 1.0%; nonconformers: 2.8%) and ~93% of patients in both groups completed the 6-week period. The SCOUT lead-in period evaluating weight management...

Broadband analysis of landslides seismic signal : example of the Oso-Steelhead landslide and other recent events

Science.gov (United States)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekstrom, G.

2014-12-01

Landslide failures on the scale of mountains are spectacular, dangerous, and spontaneous, making direct observations hard to obtain. Measurement of their dynamic properties during runout is a high research priority, but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has begun to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now allow: (i) the seismic detection and location of large landslides in near-real-time, even for events in very remote areas that may have remain undetected, such as the 2014 Mt La Perouse supraglacial failure in Alaska; (ii) inversion of long-period waves generated by large landslides to yield an estimate of the forces imparted by the bulk accelerating mass; (iii) inference of the landslide mass, its center-of-mass velocity over time, and its trajectory.Key questions persist, such as: What can the short-period seismic data tell us about the high-frequency impacts taking place within the granular flow and along its boundaries with the underlying bedrock? And how does this seismicity relate to the bulk acceleration of the landslide and the long-period seismicity generated by it?Our recent work on the joint analysis of short- and long-period seismic signals generated by past and recent events, such as the Bingham Canyon Mine and the Oso-Steelhead landslides, provides new insights to tackle these issues. Qualitative comparison between short-period signal features and kinematic parameters inferred from long-period surface wave inversion helps to refine interpretation of the source dynamics and to understand the different mechanisms for the origin of the short-period wave radiation. Our new results also suggest that quantitative relationships can be derived from this joint analysis, in particular between the short-period seismic signal envelope and the inferred momentum of the center-of-mass. In the future, these quantitative relationships may help to constrain and calibrate parameters used in

MadEvent: automatic event generation with MadGraph

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maltoni, Fabio; Stelzer, Tim

2003-01-01

We present a new multi-channel integration method and its implementation in the multi-purpose event generator MadEvent, which is based on MadGraph. Given a process, MadGraph automatically identifies all the relevant subprocesses, generates both the amplitudes and the mappings needed for an efficient integration over the phase space, and passes them to MadEvent. As a result, a process-specific, stand-alone code is produced that allows the user to calculate cross sections and produce unweighted events in a standard output format. Several examples are given for processes that are relevant for physics studies at present and forthcoming colliders. (author)

Moment tensor and location of seismic events in the 2017 DPRK test

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, S.; Shi, Q.; Chen, Q. F.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

The main seismic event in the 2017 DPRK test was followed by a secondary event about eight minutes later. We conducted waveform analysis on the regional broadband waveform data to better constrain the moment tensor and location of these two events, to further understand their relations. In the first place, we applied the generalized Cut-And-Paste (gCAP) method to the regional data to invert the full moment tensor solutions of the two events. Our long period (0.02-0.08 Hz for Pnl, 0.02-0.055 Hz for surface waves) inversions show that the main event was composed of large positive ISO component ( 90% of the total moment) and has a moment magnitude of 5.4. In contrast, the second event shows large negative ISO component ( 50% of the total moment) with a moment magnitude of 4.5. Although there are trade-offs between the CLVD and the ISO component for the second event, chiefly caused by the coda waves from the first event, the result is more robust if we force a small CVLD component in the inversion. We also relocated the epicenter of the second event using P-wave first arrival picks, relative to the location of the first event, which has been accurately determined from the high-resolution geodetic data. The calibration from the first event allows us to precisely locate the second event, which shows an almost identical location to the first event. After a polarity correction, their high-frequency ( 0.25 - 0.9 Hz) regional surface waves also display high similarity, supporting the similar location but opposite ISO polarity of the two events. Our results suggest that the second event was likely to be caused by the collapsing after the main event, in agreement with the surface displacement derived from geodetic observation and modeling results.

Undetected latent failures of safety-related systems. Preliminary survey of events in nuclear power plants 1980-1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, B.

1998-03-01

This report summarizes results and insights from a preliminary survey of events involving undetected, latent failures of safety-related systems. The survey was limited to events where mispositioned equipment (e.g., valves, switches) remained undetected, thus rendering standby equipment or systems unavailable for short or long time periods. Typically, these events were symptoms of underlying latent errors (e.g., design errors, procedure errors, unanalyzed safety conditions) and programmatic errors. The preliminary survey identified well over 300 events. Of these, 95 events are documented in this report. Events involving mispositioned equipment are commonplace. Most events are discovered soon after occurrence, however. But as evidenced by the survey results, some events remained undetected beyond several shift changes. The recommendations developed by the survey emphasize the importance of applying modern root cause analysis techniques to the event analysis to ensure that the causes and implications of occurred events are fully understood

Suicide During Perinatal Period: Epidemiology, Risk Factors and Clinical Correlates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Orsolini

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Perinatal period may pose a great challenge for the clinical management and treatment of psychiatric disorders in women. In fact, several mental illnesses can arise during pregnancy and/or following childbirth. Suicide and infanticide have been considered relatively rare events during the perinatal period. However, in some mental disorders (i.e. postpartum depression, bipolar disorder, postpartum psychosis, etc. have been reported a higher risk of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt or suicide. Therefore, a complete screening of mothers’ mental health should also take into account thoughts of suicide and thoughts about harming infants as well. Clinicians should carefully monitor and early identify related clinical manifestations, potential risk factors and alarm symptoms related to suicide. The present paper aims at providing a focused review about epidemiological data, risk and protective factors and an overview about the main clinical correlates associated with the suicidal behaviour during the pregnancy and postpartum period.

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event with m(4l) = 124.5 (124.6) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 70.6 GeV and 44.7 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 18-May-2012, 20:28:11 CEST in run number 203602 as event number 82614360. The tracks and clusters of the two electron pairs are colored red and blue, respectively.

Periodic spring–mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

III, Luther R Palmer; Eaton, Caitrin E

2014-01-01

This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg. (paper)

Periodic spring-mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Luther R; Eaton, Caitrin E

2014-09-01

This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg.

Construction and Updating of Event Models in Auditory Event Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E.; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

2018-01-01

Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event…

Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

2017-07-01

The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

Discovering social events through online attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenett, Dror Y; Morstatter, Fred; Stanley, H Eugene; Liu, Huan

2014-01-01

Twitter is a major social media platform in which users send and read messages ("tweets") of up to 140 characters. In recent years this communication medium has been used by those affected by crises to organize demonstrations or find relief. Because traffic on this media platform is extremely heavy, with hundreds of millions of tweets sent every day, it is difficult to differentiate between times of turmoil and times of typical discussion. In this work we present a new approach to addressing this problem. We first assess several possible "thermostats" of activity on social media for their effectiveness in finding important time periods. We compare methods commonly found in the literature with a method from economics. By combining methods from computational social science with methods from economics, we introduce an approach that can effectively locate crisis events in the mountains of data generated on Twitter. We demonstrate the strength of this method by using it to locate the social events relating to the Occupy Wall Street movement protests at the end of 2011.

ENGAGING STUDENTS THROUGH EVENT MARKETING: AN EXAMPLE OF UNIVERSITY ENTREPRENEURSHIP EVENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alev KOÇAK ALAN

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Despite the growing importance of event marketing, this study investigated the impact of entrepreneurship event on university students which was hosting by one of the leading university in Turkey. Three different assets of event image (event inventiveness, event appropriateness, event adequacy were proposed to influence students’ satisfaction and revisit intentions. Research conducted to 468 students which participate in the entrepreneurship event for two days. For the analyses structural equation modeling technique was used. It was found that (i the dimensions of event image (inventiveness, appropriateness, and adequacy have an impact on students’ satisfaction and (ii students’ satisfaction was a main driver of their revisit intention. Results, future researches and managerial implications were addressed.

Medieval Irish chronicles reveal persistent volcanic forcing of severe winter cold events, 431–1649 CE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ludlow, Francis; Stine, Alexander R; Leahy, Paul; Kiely, Gerard; Murphy, Enda; Mayewski, Paul A; Taylor, David; Killen, James; Hennessy, Mark; Baillie, Michael G L

2013-01-01

Explosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. However, much of our knowledge of the climatic impact of volcanism derives from the limited number of eruptions that have occurred in the modern period during which meteorological instrumental records are available. We present a uniquely long historical record of severe short-term cold events from Irish chronicles, 431–1649 CE, and test the association between cold event occurrence and explosive volcanism. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level, revealing both the consistency of response to explosive volcanism for Ireland’s climatically sensitive Northeast Atlantic location and the large proportional contribution of volcanism to historic cold event frequencies here. Our results expose, moreover, the extent to which volcanism has impacted winter-season climate for the region, and can help to further resolve the complex spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere winter-season cooling versus warming after major eruptions. (letter)

Vaccine Adverse Events

Science.gov (United States)

... for Biologics Evaluation & Research Vaccine Adverse Events Vaccine Adverse Events Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... in the primary immunization series in infants Report Adverse Event Report a Vaccine Adverse Event Contact FDA ( ...

77 FR 6954 - Special Local Regulations; Safety and Security Zones; Recurring Events in Captain of the Port...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-10

... necessary security zone, and (3) updating and reorganizing existing regulations for ease of use and... provide the event name, and type, as well as locations of the events. Annual notifications will be made to..., before the effective period, the Coast Guard will issue notice of the time and location of each regulated...

Study of seismic events in the Central Part of East European Platform

Science.gov (United States)

Gorbunova, Ella; Sanina, Irina; Ivanchenko, Galina; Nesterkina, Margarita; Konstantinovskaya, Natalya

2015-04-01

A measurement system for location seismic events in the Central Part of East European Platform is situated within the Mikhnevo Geophysical Observatory of the RAS Institute of Geospheres Dynamics and consists of 12 seismic stations. One vertical station is located in the center of the group in a shaft tunnel. The other stations are located on the periphery in three concentric circles and are almost equally spaced with regard to the terrain to ensure full azimuth coverage to the maximum extent possible. The unique array identifies events with a magnitude up to 3 at the distances until 1000 km within the Central Part of East European platform. Most of the events recorded by the Mikhnevo array at a distance of 60-500 km are man-made events represented by explosions in quarries during the development of mineral deposits. Long-term seismic records of explosions in quarries have been processed for the period from 2004 to 2014 to generate a database containing standard waveforms for each quarry. Some events of unknown origin appear in the records for this period; these do not correspond to the identified seismic forms for explosions in known quarries. Epicenter coordinates for these events do not match the coordinates of the known quarries. A cosmotectonic map of the Central Part of East European Platform was compiled during the studies using the LESSA software package (Lineament Extraction and Stripe Statistical Analysis) and data on the deep crustal structure, which made it possible to define the morphostructural plan and evaluate the geodynamic conditions in the area. The deep basement structure through the sedimentary cover is expressed in the surface texture of the area under study. The region's neotectonics is closely related to the history of deep structures, in particular, aulacogens extending in different directions, which may show in the contemporary morphostructural plan, mainly as inversion and partially inherited forms. Out of events of unknown nature

Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures

Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-07-31

Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures.

Probabilistic Models For Earthquakes With Large Return Periods In Himalaya Region

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhary, Chhavi; Sharma, Mukat Lal

2017-12-01

Determination of the frequency of large earthquakes is of paramount importance for seismic risk assessment as large events contribute to significant fraction of the total deformation and these long return period events with low probability of occurrence are not easily captured by classical distributions. Generally, with a small catalogue these larger events follow different distribution function from the smaller and intermediate events. It is thus of special importance to use statistical methods that analyse as closely as possible the range of its extreme values or the tail of the distributions in addition to the main distributions. The generalised Pareto distribution family is widely used for modelling the events which are crossing a specified threshold value. The Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto are the special cases of the generalised Pareto family. In this work, the probability of earthquake occurrence has been estimated using the Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto distributions. As a case study, the Himalayas whose orogeny lies in generation of large earthquakes and which is one of the most active zones of the world, has been considered. The whole Himalayan region has been divided into five seismic source zones according to seismotectonic and clustering of events. Estimated probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes have also been compared with the modified Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the characteristics recurrence distribution. The statistical analysis reveals that the Tapered Pareto distribution better describes seismicity for the seismic source zones in comparison to other distributions considered in the present study.

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event with m(4l) = 124.5 (124.6) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 70.6 GeV and 44.7 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 18-May-2012, 20:28:11 CEST in run number 203602 as event number 82614360. The tracks of the two electron pairs are colored red, the clusters in the LAr calorimeter are colored darkgreen.

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event with m(4l) = 124.5 (124.6) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 70.6 GeV and 44.7 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 18-May-2012, 20:28:11 CEST in run number 203602 as event number 82614360. Zoom into the tracking detector. The tracks and clusters of the two electron pairs are colored red and blue, respectively.

Time distributions of solar energetic particle events: Are SEPEs really random?

Science.gov (United States)

Jiggens, P. T. A.; Gabriel, S. B.

2009-10-01

Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can exhibit flux increases of several orders of magnitude over background levels and have always been considered to be random in nature in statistical models with no dependence of any one event on the occurrence of previous events. We examine whether this assumption of randomness in time is correct. Engineering modeling of SEPEs is important to enable reliable and efficient design of both Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft and future manned missions to Mars and the Moon. All existing engineering models assume that the frequency of SEPEs follows a Poisson process. We present analysis of the event waiting times using alternative distributions described by Lévy and time-dependent Poisson processes and compared these with the usual Poisson distribution. The results show significant deviation from a Poisson process and indicate that the underlying physical processes might be more closely related to a Lévy-type process, suggesting that there is some inherent “memory” in the system. Inherent Poisson assumptions of stationarity and event independence are investigated, and it appears that they do not hold and can be dependent upon the event definition used. SEPEs appear to have some memory indicating that events are not completely random with activity levels varying even during solar active periods and are characterized by clusters of events. This could have significant ramifications for engineering models of the SEP environment, and it is recommended that current statistical engineering models of the SEP environment should be modified to incorporate long-term event dependency and short-term system memory.

Cosmogenic nuclide production within the atmosphere and long period comets

Science.gov (United States)

Overholt, Andrew C.

The Earth is constantly bombarded by cosmic rays. These high energy particles collide with target nuclei, producing a shower of secondary particles. These secondaries contribute significantly to the radiation background at sea level and in the atmosphere, as well as producing rare cosmogenic nuclides. This contribution is variable over long time scales as astrophysical events change the cosmic ray flux incident on the Earth. Our work re-examines a previously proposed climate effect of increased cosmic ray flux due to galactic location. Although our work does not support this effect, cosmic ray secondaries remain a threat to terrestrial biota. We calculate the cosmogenic neutron flux within the atmosphere as a function of primary spectrum. This work is pivotal in determining the radiation dose due to any arbitrary astrophysical event where the primary spectrum is known. Additionally, this work can be used to determine the cosmogenic nuclide production from such an event. These neutrons are the fundamental source of cosmogenic nuclides within our atmosphere and extraterrestrial matter. We explore the idea that excursions in 14C and 10Be abundances in the atmosphere may arise from direct deposition by long-period comet impacts, and those in 26Al from any bolide. We find that the amount of nuclide mass on large long-period comets entering the Earth's atmosphere may be sufficient for creating anomalies in the records of 14C and 10Be from past impacts. In particular, the estimated mass of the proposed Younger Dryas comet is consistent with its having deposited sufficient isotopes to account for recorded nuclide increases at that time. The 26Al/10Be ratio is much larger in extraterrestrial objects than in the atmosphere, and so, we note that measuring this ratio in ice cores is a suitable further test for the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis. This portion of our work may be used to find possible impact events in the geologic record as well as determination of a large

Event Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

2001-01-01

The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

Obsessive-compulsive disorder and female reproductive cycle events: results from the OCD and reproduction collaborative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Guglielmi, Valeria; Vulink, Nienke C C; Denys, Damiaan; Wang, Ying; Samuels, Jack F; Nestadt, Gerald

2014-12-01

Women with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) often report that symptoms first appear or exacerbate during reproductive cycle events; however, little is known about these relationships. The goals of this study were to examine, in a US and a European female OCD sample, onset and exacerbation of OCD in reproductive cycle events, and to investigate the likelihood of repeat exacerbation in subsequent pregnancies and postpartum periods. Five hundred forty-two women (United States, n = 352; Dutch, n = 190) who met DSM-IV criteria for OCD, completed self-report questionnaires designed to assess OCD onset and symptom exacerbation associated with reproductive events. OCD onset occurred within 12 months after menarche in 13.0%, during pregnancy in 5.1%, at postpartum in 4.7%, and at menopause in 3.7%. Worsening of pre-existing OCD was reported by 37.6% of women at premenstruum, 33.0% during pregnancy, 46.6% postpartum, and 32.7% at menopause. Exacerbation in first pregnancy was significantly associated with exacerbation in second pregnancy (OR = 10.82, 95% CI 4.48-26.16), as was exacerbation in first postpartum with exacerbation in second postpartum (OR = 6.86, 95% CI 3.27-14.36). Results were replicated in both samples. Reproductive cycle events are periods of increased risk for onset and exacerbation of OCD in women. The present study is the first to provide significant evidence that exacerbation in or after first pregnancy is a substantial risk factor for exacerbation in or after a subsequent pregnancy. Further research is needed to identify factors related to exacerbation, so that physicians may provide appropriate recommendations to women regarding clinical issues involving OCD and reproductive cycle events. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Regulation of the yeast metabolic cycle by transcription factors with periodic activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pellegrini Matteo

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background When growing budding yeast under continuous, nutrient-limited conditions, over half of yeast genes exhibit periodic expression patterns. Periodicity can also be observed in respiration, in the timing of cell division, as well as in various metabolite levels. Knowing the transcription factors involved in the yeast metabolic cycle is helpful for determining the cascade of regulatory events that cause these patterns. Results Transcription factor activities were estimated by linear regression using time series and genome-wide transcription factor binding data. Time-translation matrices were estimated using least squares and were used to model the interactions between the most significant transcription factors. The top transcription factors have functions involving respiration, cell cycle events, amino acid metabolism and glycolysis. Key regulators of transitions between phases of the yeast metabolic cycle appear to be Hap1, Hap4, Gcn4, Msn4, Swi6 and Adr1. Conclusions Analysis of the phases at which transcription factor activities peak supports previous findings suggesting that the various cellular functions occur during specific phases of the yeast metabolic cycle.

Incidence of cardiovascular events and associated risk factors in kidney transplant patients: a competing risks survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Seoane-Pillado, María Teresa; Pita-Fernández, Salvador; Valdés-Cañedo, Francisco; Seijo-Bestilleiro, Rocio; Pértega-Díaz, Sonia; Fernández-Rivera, Constantino; Alonso-Hernández, Ángel; González-Martín, Cristina; Balboa-Barreiro, Vanesa

2017-03-07

The high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among the renal transplant population accounts for increased mortality. The aim of this study is to determine the incidence of cardiovascular events and factors associated with cardiovascular events in these patients. An observational ambispective follow-up study of renal transplant recipients (n = 2029) in the health district of A Coruña (Spain) during the period 1981-2011 was completed. Competing risk survival analysis methods were applied to estimate the cumulative incidence of developing cardiovascular events over time and to identify which characteristics were associated with the risk of these events. Post-transplant cardiovascular events are defined as the presence of myocardial infarction, invasive coronary artery therapy, cerebral vascular events, new-onset angina, congestive heart failure, rhythm disturbances, peripheral vascular disease and cardiovascular disease and death. The cause of death was identified through the medical history and death certificate using ICD9 (390-459, except: 427.5, 435, 446, 459.0). The mean age of patients at the time of transplantation was 47.0 ± 14.2 years; 62% were male. 16.5% had suffered some cardiovascular disease prior to transplantation and 9.7% had suffered a cardiovascular event. The mean follow-up period for the patients with cardiovascular event was 3.5 ± 4.3 years. Applying competing risk methodology, it was observed that the accumulated incidence of the event was 5.0% one year after transplantation, 8.1% after five years, and 11.9% after ten years. After applying multivariate models, the variables with an independent effect for predicting cardiovascular events are: male sex, age of recipient, previous cardiovascular disorders, pre-transplant smoking and post-transplant diabetes. This study makes it possible to determine in kidney transplant patients, taking into account competitive events, the incidence of post-transplant cardiovascular events and

Monthly variations of diurnal rainfall in north coast of West Java Indonesia during boreal winter periods

Science.gov (United States)

Yulihastin, E.; Trismidianto

2018-05-01

Diurnal rainfall during the active monsoon period is usually associated with the highest convective activity that often triggers extreme rainfall. Investigating diurnal rainfall behavior in the north coast of West Java is important to recognize the behavioral trends of data leading to such extreme events in strategic West Java because the city of Jakarta is located in this region. Variability of diurnal rainfall during the period of active monsoon on December-January-February (DJF) composite during the 2000-2016 period was investigated using hourly rainfall data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B41RT dataset. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was appears that the diurnal rain cycle during February has increased significantly in its amplitude and frequency. It is simultaneously shows that the indication of extreme rainfall events is related to diurnal rain divergences during February shown through phase shifts. The diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal cycles appear on the characteristics of the DJF composite rainfall data during the 2000-2016 period.The significant increases in amplitude occurred during February are the diurnal (IMF 3) and terdiurnal (IMF 1) of rainfall cycles.

A Study of Sympathetic Flaring Using a Full-Sun Event Catalog

Science.gov (United States)

Higgins, P. A.; Schrijver, C. J.; Title, A. M.; Bloomfield, D.; Gallagher, P.

2013-12-01

There has been a trove of papers published on the statistics of flare occurrence. These studies are trying to answer the question of whether or not subsequent solar flares are related. The majority of these works have not included both flare location information and the physical properties of the regions responsible for the eruptions, and none have taken advantage of full-Sun event coverage. Now that SDO/AIA is available and the STEREO spacecraft have progressed past 90 degrees from Earth's heliographic longitude, this new information is available to us. This work aims to quantify how common sympathetic events are, and how important they are in the forecasting of solar flares. A 3D plot of detected and clustered flare events for a full solar rotation, including the Valentine's Day Event of 2011. A full-Sun image in the EUV (304A) including both STEREO view points and AIA. The GOES X-ray light curves during the February period of 2011 are shown in the bottom panel. Detected flare events are indicated by the green dashed lines and the time stamp of this image is denoted by the red line.

Statistical Analysis of Interchange Injection Events from Over a Decade of Cassini Data

Science.gov (United States)

Azari, A.; Jia, X.; Liemohn, M. W.; Sergis, N.; Thomsen, M. F.; Mitchell, D. G.; Rymer, A. M.; Paranicas, C.; Provan, G.; Ye, S.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Vandegriff, J. D.; Kurth, W. S.

2017-12-01

The Cassini spacecraft has routinely observed interchange injection events with multiple instruments since arriving at Saturn in 2004. Interchange injection events are thought to initiate from a Rayleigh-Taylor like plasma instability sourced from Saturn's rapid rotation (period 10.8 hours) and dense plasma population outgassing primarily from Enceladus, and are the primary source of mass transport in the inner/middle magnetosphere. This dense plasma must be transported outward, and to conserve magnetic flux, inward moving flux tubes of low density, energetic (> keV) plasma from the outer reaches of the Saturnian system also occur. These inward-bound flux tubes are referred to as interchange injections. We will present a statistical evaluation of the occurrence rates of interchange injections at Saturn demonstrating seasonal dependence of interchange over the entirety of the Cassini mission's equatorial orbits between 2005 and 2016. We identify interchange events from CHarge Energy Mass Spectrometer (CHEMS) H+ data using a trained and tested automated algorithm. Our event identification compares well with manual identification and previous surveys of injections by L-shell and local time (Chen and Hill, 2008, Lai et al., 2016, Kennelly et al., 2013). We find that peak rates of interchange events occur between 7 - 9 Saturn radii, in agreement with previous surveys. We also evaluate interchange by preferred local time sector and season, splitting our events into pre-equinox, equinox, and post - equinox time periods. We determine that over all seasons, nightside occurrence dominated as compared to dayside, but the preferred dayside sector shifts from pre-noon during equinox, to post-noon during post-equinox. We will further investigate seasonal dependence by presenting occurrence organized by the phase systems derived based on Saturn kilometric radiation (SKR) and magnetic field perturbations (PPO).

Periodic traveling compression regions during quiet geomagnetic conditions and their association with ground Pi2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Keiling

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Recently, Keiling et al. (2006 showed that periodic (~90 s traveling compression regions (TCRs during a substorm had properties of Pi2 pulsations, prompting them to call this type of periodic TCRs "lobe Pi2". It was further shown that time-delayed ground Pi2 had the same period as the lobe Pi2 located at 16 R_E, and it was concluded that both were remotely driven by periodic, pulsed reconnection in the magnetotail. In the study reported here, we give further evidence for this association by reporting additional periodic TCR events (lobe Pi2s at 18 R_E all of which occurred in succession during a geomagnetically very quiet, non-substorm period. Each quiet-time periodic TCR event occurred during an interval of small H-bay-like ground disturbance (<40 nT. Such disturbances have previously been identified as poleward boundary intensifications (PBIs. The small H bays were superposed by Pi2s. These ground Pi2s are compared to the TCRs in the tail lobe (Cluster and both magnetic pulsations and flow variations at 9 R_E inside the plasma sheet (Geotail. The main results of this study are: (1 Further evidence is given that periodic TCRs in the tail lobe at distances of 18 R_E and ground Pi2 are related phenomena. In particular, it is shown that both had the same periodicity and occurred simultaneously (allowing for propagation time delays strongly suggesting that both had the same periodic source. Since the TCRs were propagating Earthward, this source was located in the outer magnetosphere beyond 18 R_E. (2 The connection of periodic TCRs and ground Pi2 also exists during very quiet geomagnetic conditions with PBIs present in addition to the previous result (Keiling et al., 2006 which showed this connection during substorms. (3 Combining (1 and (2, we conclude that the frequency of PBI-associated Pi2 is controlled in the outer magnetosphere as opposed to the

Event-by-event simulation of quantum phenomena

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Raedt, H.; Zhao, S.; Yuan, S.; Jin, F.; Michielsen, K.; Miyashita, S.

We discuss recent progress in the development of simulation algorithms that do not rely on any concept of quantum theory but are nevertheless capable of reproducing the averages computed from quantum theory through an event-by-event simulation. The simulation approach is illustrated by applications

The Comparisons of Cerebral Hemodynamics Induced by Obstructive Sleep Apnea with Arousal and Periodic Limb Movement with Arousal: A Pilot NIRS Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongxing; Schneider, Maja; Laures, Marco; Qi, Ming; Khatami, Ramin

2016-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSA) and restless legs syndrome (RLS) with periodic limb movement during sleep (PLMS) are two sleep disorders characterized by repetitive respiratory or movement events associated with cortical arousals. We compared the cerebral hemodynamic changes linked to periodic apneas/hypopneas with arousals (AHA) in four OSA-patients with periodic limb movements (PLMA) with arousals in four patients with RLS-PLMS using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). AHA induced homogenous pattern of periodic fluctuations in oxygenated (HbO2) and deoxygenated (HHb) hemoglobin, i.e., the decrease of HbO2 was accompanied by an increase of HHb during the respiratory event and resolved to reverse pattern when cortical arousal started. Blood volume (BV) showed the same pattern as HHb but with relative smaller amplitude in most of the AHA events.These changing patterns were significant as Wilcoxon signed-rank tests gave p Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, p Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p < 0.001) and then decreased. The results of this preliminary study show that both AHA and PLMA induce changes in cerebral hemodynamics. The occurrence of cortical arousal is accompanied by increased HR in both events, but by different BV changes (i.e., decreased/increased BV in AHA/PLMA, respectively). HR changes may partially account for the increased cerebral hemodynamics during PLMA; whereas in AHA probable vasodilatation mediated by hypoxia/hypercapnia is more crucial for the post-arousal hemodynamics. The differences between changes of cerebral hemodynamics and HR may indicate different pathological mechanisms behind these two sleep disorder events.

Observation of short period fluctuation of CygX-1 with balloon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakagawa, Michio; Sakurai, Takahisa; Uchida, Masayoshi

1977-01-01

CygX-1 presents very complex short period fluctuation of X-ray, therefore the hard X-ray was especially observed in 1972 and 1973 with large balloons, and the data were analyzed. This short period fluctuation and energy spectra of CygX-1 in the normal and flare time bands were compared. The observing apparatuses consisted of the 3 in diameter NaI detector and a high pressure proportional counter. The observing method is to turn the gondora alternately to the directions of source (ON) and background (OFF). As for the data analysis, the events at ON and OFF in the observation data in 1972 and 1973 were plotted for time interval. The background component is in agreement with Poisson's distribution, but source component is not. This difference for Poisson's distribution means the behavior of CygX-1. The power spectrum was analyzed, and the strong power density was observed at 5.4 x 10 -2 Hz in ON, but such power density was not observed in OFF. Accordingly this is presumed to be caused by CygX-1. The events for time interval in flare time are shown. The rise of about 2.9 σ exists at 80 msec. The count rates were compared for photon energy in the normal and flare times. The short period fluctuation of hard X-ray from CygX-1 deviates from Poisson's distribution and is different in the normal and flare times. (Nakai, Y.)

Notifiable events in systems for fission of nuclear fuels - nuclear power plants and research reactors with maximum output exceeding 50 kW of thermal normal rating - in the Federal Republic of Germany. Quarterly report, 2nd quarter of 1996

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

There were 32 notifiable events in nuclear power plants in Germany in the second quarter of 1996. The report lists and characterises all the 32 events notified in the reporting period. The events did not involve any radioactivity release exceeding the maximum permissible limits during this period, so that there were no radiation hazards to the population or the environment. One event was classified at level 1 of the INES event scale (Anomaly). Research reactor operators in Germany reported 5 notifiable events in the reporting period. The report lists and characterises these events. These events did not involve any radioactivity release exceeding the maximum permissible limits during this period, so that there were no radiation hazards to the population or the environment. All events notified were classified into the lowest categories of safety significance of the official event scales (N, or below scale). (orig./DG) [de

Survey of reportable incidents in nuclear power plant in the Federal Republic of Germany. Period covered: 4th quarter 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

There was no radioactivity release exceeding the limits set by law, and there was no hazard to man or the environment in the period under review. 58 events reported belonged to the lowest reporting category, N (normal notification), one event to category E (immediate notification, and there was none belonging to category S (emergency) notification. According to the INES evaluation scale, 56 events belonged to category 0, (no safety or radiological impact), and there were 3 events of INES scale 1 (malfunction). (orig./HP) [de

Research on generation mechanism of single event transient current generated in the semiconductor using ion accelerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirao, Toshio

2007-01-01

Single-event upset (SEU) is triggered when an amount of electric charges induced by energetic ion incidence exceeds a value known as a critical charge in a very short time period. Therefore, accurate evaluation of electric charge and understanding of basic mechanism of SEU are necessary for the improvement of SEU torrance of electronic devices. In this paper, the collected charges for the single event transient current induced on semiconductor by heavy ion microbeams, and application to use microbeam for single event studies are presented. (author)

Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus on β-Blockers.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsujimoto, Tetsuro; Sugiyama, Takehiro; Shapiro, Martin F; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Kajio, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

Although the use of β-blockers may help in achieving maximum effects of intensive glycemic control because of a decrease in the adverse effects after severe hypoglycemia, they pose a potential risk for the occurrence of severe hypoglycemia. This study aimed to evaluate whether the use of β-blockers is effective in patients with diabetes mellitus and whether its use is associated with the occurrence of severe hypoglycemia. Using the ACCORD trial (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) data, we performed Cox proportional hazards analyses with a propensity score adjustment. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of a cardiovascular event during the study period, which included nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, nonfatal stroke, and cardiovascular death. The mean follow-up periods (±SD) were 4.6±1.6 years in patients on β-blockers (n=2527) and 4.7±1.6 years in those not on β-blockers (n=2527). The cardiovascular event rate was significantly higher in patients on β-blockers than in those not on β-blockers (hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-1.72; P diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular events. © 2017 The Authors.

Event-by-event simulation of quantum phenomena

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Raedt, Hans; Michielsen, Kristel

A discrete-event simulation approach is reviewed that does not require the knowledge of the solution of the wave equation of the whole system, yet reproduces the statistical distributions of wave theory by generating detection events one-by-one. The simulation approach is illustrated by applications

Undetected latent failures of safety-related systems. Preliminary survey of events in nuclear power plants 1980-1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydell, B. [RSA Technologies, Vista, CA (United States)

1998-03-01

This report summarizes results and insights from a preliminary survey of events involving undetected, latent failures of safety-related systems. The survey was limited to events where mispositioned equipment (e.g., valves, switches) remained undetected, thus rendering standby equipment or systems unavailable for short or long time periods. Typically, these events were symptoms of underlying latent errors (e.g., design errors, procedure errors, unanalyzed safety conditions) and programmatic errors. The preliminary survey identified well over 300 events. Of these, 95 events are documented in this report. Events involving mispositioned equipment are commonplace. Most events are discovered soon after occurrence, however. But as evidenced by the survey results, some events remained undetected beyond several shift changes. The recommendations developed by the survey emphasize the importance of applying modern root cause analysis techniques to the event analysis to ensure that the causes and implications of occurred events are fully understood. 7 refs, 4 tabs, 3 figs. Also available at the SKI Home page: //www.ski.se.

Trend analyses of the emergency diesel generator problem events in Japanese and U.S. nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2011-01-01

Up to 2009, the author and a colleague conducted trend analyses of problem events related to main generators, emergency diesel generators, breakers, motors and transformers which are more likely to cause problems than other electric components in nuclear power plants. Among the electric components with high frequency of defect occurrence, i.e., emergency diesel generators, several years have passed since the last analyses. These are very important components needed to stop a nuclear reactor safely and to cool it down during external power supply loses. Then trend analyses were conducted for the second time. The trend analyses were performed on 80 problem events with emergency diesel generators which had occurred in U.S. nuclear power plants in the five years from 2005 through 2009 among events reported in the Licensee Event Reports (LERs: event reports submitted to NRC by U.S. nuclear power plants) which have been registered in the nuclear information database of the Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc. (INSS) , as well as 40 events registered in the Nuclear Information Archives (NUCIA), which occurred in Japanese nuclear power plants in the same time period. It was learned from the trend analyses of the problem events with emergency diesel generators that frequency of defect occurrence are high in both Japanese and US plants during plant operations and functional tests (that is, defects can be discovered effectively in advance), so that implementation of periodical functional tests under plant operation is an important task for the future. (author)

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event with m(4l) = 124.5 (124.6) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 70.6 GeV and 44.7 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 18-May-2012, 20:28:11 CEST in run number 203602 as event number 82614360. Zoom into the tracking detector and the LAr calorimeter where its detailed structure is highlighted. The tracks and clusters of the two electron pairs are colored red and blue, respectively.

Targeted therapies for renal cell carcinoma: review of adverse event management strategies.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eisen, T.; Sternberg, C.N.; Robert, C.; Mulders, P.F.; Pyle, L.; Zbinden, S.; Izzedine, H.; Escudier, B.

2012-01-01

With the advent of targeted agents for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma (RCC), overall survival has improved, and patients are being treated continuously for increasingly long periods of time. This has raised challenges in the management of adverse events (AEs) associated with the six targeted

Joint effect of alcohol consumption and educational level on alcohol-related medical events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nordahl Christensen, Helene; Diderichsen, Finn; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla Arthur

2017-01-01

alcohol consumption at baseline using self-administrated questionnaires. Information on highest attained education 1 year before study entry and hospital and mortality data on alcohol-related medical events were obtained through linkage to nationwide registries. We performed analyses using the Aalen...... may also play a role. We investigated the joint effect of alcohol consumption and educational level on the rate of alcohol-related medical events.Methods: We pooled seven prospective cohorts from Denmark that enrolled 74,278 men and women age 30–70 years (study period, 1981 to 2009). We measured...... additive hazards model.Results: During follow-up (1,085,049 person-years), a total of 1718 alcohol-related events occurred. The joint effect of very high alcohol consumption (>21 [>28] drinks per week in women [men]) and low education on alcohol-related events exceeded the sum of their separate effects...

Time Separation Between Events in a Sequence: a Regional Property?

Science.gov (United States)

Muirwood, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.

2013-12-01

Earthquake sequences are loosely defined as events occurring too closely in time and space to appear unrelated. Depending on the declustering method, several, all, or no event(s) after the first large event might be recognized as independent mainshocks. It can therefore be argued that a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, traditionally dealing with mainshocks only) might already include the ground shaking effects of such sequences. Alternatively all but the largest event could be classified as an ';aftershock' and removed from the earthquake catalog. While in PSHA the question is only whether to keep or remove the events from the catalog, for Risk Management purposes, the community response to the earthquakes, as well as insurance risk transfer mechanisms, can be profoundly affected by the actual timing of events in such a sequence. In particular the repetition of damaging earthquakes over a period of weeks to months can lead to businesses closing and families evacuating from the region (as happened in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011). Buildings that are damaged in the first earthquake may go on to be damaged again, even while they are being repaired. Insurance also functions around a set of critical timeframes - including the definition of a single 'event loss' for reinsurance recoveries within the 192 hour ';hours clause', the 6-18 month pace at which insurance claims are settled, and the annual renewal of insurance and reinsurance contracts. We show how temporal aspects of earthquake sequences need to be taken into account within models for Risk Management, and what time separation between events are most sensitive, both in terms of the modeled disruptions to lifelines and business activity as well as in the losses to different parties (such as insureds, insurers and reinsurers). We also explore the time separation between all events and between loss causing events for a collection of sequences from across the world and we point to the need to

Joint Attributes and Event Analysis for Multimedia Event Detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Zhigang; Chang, Xiaojun; Xu, Zhongwen; Sebe, Nicu; Hauptmann, Alexander G

2017-06-15

Semantic attributes have been increasingly used the past few years for multimedia event detection (MED) with promising results. The motivation is that multimedia events generally consist of lower level components such as objects, scenes, and actions. By characterizing multimedia event videos with semantic attributes, one could exploit more informative cues for improved detection results. Much existing work obtains semantic attributes from images, which may be suboptimal for video analysis since these image-inferred attributes do not carry dynamic information that is essential for videos. To address this issue, we propose to learn semantic attributes from external videos using their semantic labels. We name them video attributes in this paper. In contrast with multimedia event videos, these external videos depict lower level contents such as objects, scenes, and actions. To harness video attributes, we propose an algorithm established on a correlation vector that correlates them to a target event. Consequently, we could incorporate video attributes latently as extra information into the event detector learnt from multimedia event videos in a joint framework. To validate our method, we perform experiments on the real-world large-scale TRECVID MED 2013 and 2014 data sets and compare our method with several state-of-the-art algorithms. The experiments show that our method is advantageous for MED.

High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

North Greenland Ice Core Project members; Andersen, Katrine K.; Azuma, N.

2004-01-01

Two deep ice cores from central Greenland, drilled in the 1990s, have played a key role in climate reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere, but the oldest sections of the cores were disturbed in chronology owing to ice folding near the bedrock. Here we present an undisturbed climate record from...... the initiation of the last glacial period. Our record reveals a hitherto unrecognized warm period initiated by an abrupt climate warming about 115,000 years ago, before glacial conditions were fully developed. This event does not appear to have an immediate Antarctic counterpart, suggesting that the climate see......-saw between the hemispheres (which dominated the last glacial period) was not operating at this time....

New type of ensemble of quasi-periodic, long-lasting VLF emissions at the auroral zone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Manninen

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A new type of the series of quasi-periodic (QP very low frequency (VLF emissions in frequency range of 1–5 kHz, and not associated with geomagnetic pulsations, has been discovered at auroral latitudes (L = 5.3 during the Finnish VLF campaign (held in December 2011. At least five unusually spectacular events, each with a duration of several hours, have been observed during the night under conditions of quiet geomagnetic activity (Kp = 0–1, although QPs usually occur during the daytime. Contrary to the QP emissions typically occurring during the day, the spectral structure of these QP events represented an extended, complicated sequence of repeated discrete rising VLF signals. Their duration was about 2–3 min each, with the repetition periods ranging from ~1 min to ~10 min. Two such nighttime non-typical events are reported in this paper. The fine structure of the separated QP elements may represent a mixture of the different frequency band signals, which seem to have independent origins. It was found that the periodic signals with lower frequency appear to trigger the strong dispersive upper frequency signals. The temporal dynamics of the spectral structure of the QPs studied were significantly controlled by some disturbances in the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF. This finding is very important for future theoretical investigations because the generation mechanism of this new type of QP emissions is not yet understood.

Forecasting E > 50-MeV Proton Events with the Proton Prediction System (PPS)

Science.gov (United States)

Kahler, S. W.; White, S. M.; Ling, A. G.

2017-12-01

Forecasting solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events is an important element of space weather. While several models have been developed for use in forecasting such events, satellite operations are particularly vulnerable to higher-energy (> 50 MeV) SEP events. Here we validate one model, the proton prediction system (PPS), which extends to that energy range. We first develop a data base of E > 50-MeV proton events > 1.0 proton flux units (pfu) events observed on the GOES satellite over the period 1986 to 2016. We modify the PPS to forecast proton events at the reduced level of 1 pfu and run PPS for four different solar input parameters: (1) all > M5 solar X-ray flares; (2) all > 200 sfu 8800-MHz bursts with associated > M5 flares; (3) all > 500 sfu 8800-MHz bursts; and (4) all > 5000 sfu 8800-MHz bursts. For X-ray flare inputs the forecasted event peak intensities and fluences are compared with observed values. The validation contingency tables and skill scores are calculated for all groups and used as a guide to use of the PPS. We plot the false alarms and missed events as functions of solar source longitude.

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event with m(4l) = 124.5 (124.6) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 70.6 GeV and 44.7 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 18-May-2012, 20:28:11 CEST in run number 203602 as event number 82614360. The tracks and clusters of the two electron pairs are colored red and blue, respectively. The three displays on the right-hand side show the r-phi view of the event (top), a zoom into the vertex region, indicating that the 4 electrons originate from the same primary vertex (middle), and a Lego plot indicating the amount of transverse energy Et measured in the calorimeters (bottom).

Construction and updating of event models in auditory event processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

2018-02-01

Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event boundaries. Evidence from reading time studies (increased reading times with increasing amount of change) suggest that updating of event models is incremental. We present results from 5 experiments that studied event processing (including memory formation processes and reading times) using an audio drama as well as a transcript thereof as stimulus material. Experiments 1a and 1b replicated the event boundary advantage effect for memory. In contrast to recent evidence from studies using visual stimulus material, Experiments 2a and 2b found no support for incremental updating with normally sighted and blind participants for recognition memory. In Experiment 3, we replicated Experiment 2a using a written transcript of the audio drama as stimulus material, allowing us to disentangle encoding and retrieval processes. Our results indicate incremental updating processes at encoding (as measured with reading times). At the same time, we again found recognition performance to be unaffected by the amount of change. We discuss these findings in light of current event cognition theories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-25

univariate zonal wind EOF analysis, the mean number of continuing events exceeds 437 observations, though the observed number falls within the 95...year simulation period using the truncated, 464 observed SSTs. Approximately two-thirds of the observed events fall within 20-100 days with a 465...Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF 745 model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor . Soc.. 134, 1337

Myocardial Scintigraphy in the Evaluation of Cardiac Events in Patients without Typical Symptoms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smanio, Paola Emanuela Poggio, E-mail: pgmsmanio@gmail.com; Silva, Juliana Horie; Holtz, João Vitor; Ueda, Leandro; Abreu, Marilia; Marques, Carlindo; Machado, Leonardo [Instituto Dante Pazzanese de Cardiologia, São Paulo, SP - Brazil Mailing (Brazil)

2015-08-15

Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death in the world and in Brazil. Myocardial scintigraphy is an important noninvasive method for detecting ischemia in symptomatic patients, but its use in asymptomatic ones or those with atypical symptoms is yet to be defined. To verify the presence of major cardiac events in asymptomatic patients or those with atypical symptoms (atypical chest pain or dyspnea) that underwent myocardial scintigraphy (MS), over a period of 8 years. Secondary objectives were to identify cardiac risk factors associated with myocardial scintigraphy abnormalities and possible predictors for major cardiac events in this group. This was a retrospective, observational study using the medical records of 892 patients that underwent myocardial scintigraphy between 2005 and 2011 and who were followed until 2013 for assessment of major cardiac events and risk factors associated with myocardial scintigraphy abnormalities. Statistical analysis was performed by Fisher’s exact test, logistic regression and Kaplan-Meyer survival curves, with statistical significance being set at p ≤ 0.05. Of the total sample, 52.1% were men, 86.9% were hypertensive, 72.4% had hyperlipidemia, 33.6% were diabetic, and 12.2% were smokers; 44.5% had known coronary artery disease; and 70% had high Framingham score, 21.8% had moderate and 8% had low risk. Of the myocardial scintigraphies, 58.6% were normal, 26.1% suggestive of fibrosis and 15.3% suggestive of ischemia. At evolution, 13 patients (1.5%) had non-fatal myocardial infarction and six individuals (0.7%) died. The group with normal myocardial scintigraphy showed longer period of time free of major cardiac events, non-fatal myocardial infarction (p = 0.036) and death. Fibrosis in the myocardial scintigraphy determined a 2.4-fold increased risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction and five-fold higher risk of death (odds ratio: 2.4 and 5.7, respectively; p = 0.043). The occurrence of major cardiac events in 8 years

Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system

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A. A. Cimatoribus

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets, either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

Solar proton events and their effect on space systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tranquille, C.

1994-01-01

Solar protons present a major problem to space systems because of the ionisation and displacement effects which arise from their interaction with matter. This is likely to become a greater problem in the future due to the use of more sensitive electronic components and the proposed expansion of manned activities in space. An outline is provided of the physical processes associated with individual solar events, the solar activity cycle and the transport of solar particles between the Sun and the Earth. The problems of predicting solar event fluences, both over short- and long-term periods, are discussed. The currently available solar proton event models used for long-term forecasting are briefly reviewed, and the advantages and deficiencies of each model are investigated. Predictions using the models are compared to measurements made by the GOES-7 satellite during the rising phase of the current solar cycle. These measurements are also used to illustrate the sensitivity of the models to the choice of confidence level and to the spectral form used for extrapolation over the solar proton energy range. (author)

Multipoint observations of coronal mass ejection and solar energetic particle events on Mars and Earth during November 2001

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Brain, D. A.

2011-01-01

and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data to study ICMEs and SEPs at Earth, we present a detailed study of three CMEs and flares in late November 2001. In this period, Mars trailed Earth by 56 degrees solar longitude so that the two planets occupied interplanetary magnetic field lines...... not only ICME events but also SEP events at Mars, with good results providing a consistent picture of the events when combined with near-Earth data....

On the return period and design in a multivariate framework

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G. Salvadori

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate environment is a difficult problem: this paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a consistent theoretical framework for the calculation of the return period in a multi-dimensional environment, based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of suitable design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of an adequate theoretical environment where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

Potentially disruptive life events: what are the immediate impacts on chronic disease management? A case-crossover analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauffenburger, Julie C; Gagne, Joshua J; Song, Zirui; Brill, Gregory; Choudhry, Niteesh K

2016-08-04

To explore the association between unexpected potentially disruptive life events in a patient or family member that may challenge an individual's ability to take medications as prescribed and the discontinuation of evidence-based medications for common, chronic conditions. Understanding the relationship between medication adherence and life stressors, especially those that can be identified using administrative data, may help identify patients at risk of non-adherence. Observational self-controlled case-crossover design. Individuals in a nationally representative US commercial health insurance database. Adult individuals who initiated an oral hypoglycaemic, antihypertensive and/or statin and subsequently stopped the medication for ≥90 days. Potentially disruptive life events among patients and their family members measured in the 30 days just before the medication was discontinued ('hazard period') compared with the 30 days before this period ('control period'). These events included personal injury, hospitalisation, emergency room visits, changes in insurance coverage, acute stress or acute anxiety. Among the 326 519 patients meeting study criteria who discontinued their chronic disease medications, 88 896 (27.2%) experienced at least one potentially disruptive life event. Newly experiencing an injury (OR: 1.26, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.42), an emergency room visit (OR: 1.19, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.26) and acute stress (OR: 1.19, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.31) were associated with discontinuation. Life events among patients' family members did not appear to be associated with medication discontinuation or occurred less frequently just prior to discontinuation. Potentially disruptive life events among individuals identified using routinely collected claims data are associated with discontinuation of chronic disease medications. Awareness of these events may help providers or payers identify patients at risk of non-adherence to maximise patient outcomes. Published by the BMJ

Observations of new particle formation events in the south-eastern Baltic Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Plauškaitė

2010-03-01

Full Text Available New particle formation and growth were observed at a coastal site (Preila station, Lithuania during 1997 and 2000-2002. The total amountof data analysed covers 291 one-day periods, 45 (15% of which were long-term, new particle formation days. Short-term nucleationevents (from a few minutes to one hour and long-term events (from one to eight hours were identified. The mean particlegrowth rate, condensation sink and condensable vapour source rate during nucleation events were 3.9 nm h-1, 1.45 × 10-3 cm-3 s-1 and 7.5 × 104 cm-3 s-1 respectively.The average formation rate J10 was 0.4 cm-3 s-1. The nucleation events were accompaniedmainly by air masses transported from the north (43% and north-west (19%. Meteorological parameters and trace gas (O3, SO2,NO2 concentrations were also analysed. It was found that nucleation events are related to high levels of solar radiation.

PROFESSIONAL AND NONPROFESSIONAL EVENT MANAGERS: AGENTS’ CHARACTERISTICS OF EVENT-ACTIVITIES FIELD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Nikolaevna Startseva

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The main research question focuses on studying of the «new», non-traditional, recent forming professional group of event managers in modernRussia. This article provides the event group boundaries, its numerical and structural composition. On the basis of existing community event stereotypes, perceptions of event managers, supervisors’ event agencies and customers such the all agents included in the event activities, the author designed the image of professional and nonprofessional manager.Scientific, theoretical and practical significance of the work is leading to characterize agent-field-event activities and outline the prospects for the professional groups’ formation of event managers in modernRussia.Conceptuality and validity of the study is based on using theoretical and methodological comparative, functional and activity approaches.The obtained results can be used for further investigations in the event managers’ field and for other professional-groups, as well as useful in the study plan such as «Sociology of professions and professional groups» and «Sociology of culture and spiritual life».

Data driven analysis of rain events: feature extraction, clustering, microphysical /macro physical relationship

Science.gov (United States)

Djallel Dilmi, Mohamed; Mallet, Cécile; Barthes, Laurent; Chazottes, Aymeric

2017-04-01

The study of rain time series records is mainly carried out using rainfall rate or rain accumulation parameters estimated on a fixed integration time (typically 1 min, 1 hour or 1 day). In this study we used the concept of rain event. In fact, the discrete and intermittent natures of rain processes make the definition of some features inadequate when defined on a fixed duration. Long integration times (hour, day) lead to mix rainy and clear air periods in the same sample. Small integration time (seconds, minutes) will lead to noisy data with a great sensibility to detector characteristics. The analysis on the whole rain event instead of individual short duration samples of a fixed duration allows to clarify relationships between features, in particular between macro physical and microphysical ones. This approach allows suppressing the intra-event variability partly due to measurement uncertainties and allows focusing on physical processes. An algorithm based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Self Organising Maps (SOM) is developed to obtain a parsimonious characterisation of rain events using a minimal set of variables. The use of self-organizing map (SOM) is justified by the fact that it allows to map a high dimensional data space in a two-dimensional space while preserving as much as possible the initial space topology in an unsupervised way. The obtained SOM allows providing the dependencies between variables and consequently removing redundant variables leading to a minimal subset of only five features (the event duration, the rain rate peak, the rain event depth, the event rain rate standard deviation and the absolute rain rate variation of order 0.5). To confirm relevance of the five selected features the corresponding SOM is analyzed. This analysis shows clearly the existence of relationships between features. It also shows the independence of the inter-event time (IETp) feature or the weak dependence of the Dry percentage in event (Dd%e) feature. This confirms

Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhardt, M.E.

1994-09-01

The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given

Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Engelhardt, M.E.

1994-09-01

The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.

Event display of a H -> 4mu candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display of a H -> 4mu candidate event with m(4l) = 124.1 (125.1) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 86.3 GeV and 31.6 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 10-Jun-2012, 13:24:31 CEST in run number 204769 as event number 71902630. Muon tracks are colored red. The inset on the right-hand side shows a zoom into the tracking detector. The inset on top shows a zoom into the vertex region, indicating that the 4 muons originate from the same primary vertex.

Control of extreme events in the bubbling onset of wave turbulence.

Science.gov (United States)

Galuzio, P P; Viana, R L; Lopes, S R

2014-04-01

We show the existence of an intermittent transition from temporal chaos to turbulence in a spatially extended dynamical system, namely, the forced and damped one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation. For some values of the forcing parameter, the system dynamics intermittently switches between ordered states and turbulent states, which may be seen as extreme events in some contexts. In a Fourier phase space, the intermittency takes place due to the loss of transversal stability of unstable periodic orbits embedded in a low-dimensional subspace. We mapped these transversely unstable regions and perturbed the system in order to significantly reduce the occurrence of extreme events of turbulence.

Event display of a H -> 4e candidate event

CERN Multimedia

ATLAS, Collaboration

2012-01-01

Event display (side view) of a H -> 4e candidate event with m(4l) = 124.5 (124.6) GeV without (with) Z mass constraint. The masses of the lepton pairs are 70.6 GeV and 44.7 GeV. The event was recorded by ATLAS on 18-May-2012, 20:28:11 CEST in run number 203602 as event number 82614360. The tracks of the two electron pairs are colored red and blue, respectively. Electron clusters in the LAr calorimeter are colored darkgreen. The three displays on the right-hand side show the r-phi view of the event (top), a zoom into the vertex region, indicating that the 4 electrons originate from the same primary vertex (middle), and a Lego plot indicating the amount of transverse energy Et measured in the calorimeters (bottom).

Empirical assessment of effects of urbanization on event flow hydrology in watersheds of Canada's Great Lakes-St Lawrence basin

Science.gov (United States)

Trudeau, M. P.; Richardson, Murray

2016-10-01

We conducted an empirical hydrological analysis of high-temporal resolution streamflow records for 27 watersheds within 11 river systems in the Greater Toronto Region of the Canadian Great Lakes basin. Our objectives were to model the event-scale flow response of watersheds to urbanization and to test for scale and threshold effects. Watershed areas ranged from 37.5 km2 to 806 km2 and urban percent land cover ranged from less than 0.1-87.6%. Flow records had a resolution of 15-min increments and were available over a 42-year period, allowing for detailed assessment of changes in event-scale flow response with increasing urban land use during the post-freshet period (May 26 to November 15). Empirical statistical models were developed for flow characteristics including total runoff, runoff coefficient, eightieth and ninety-fifth percentile rising limb event runoff and mean rising limb event acceleration. Changes in some of these runoff metrics began at very low urban land use (acceleration increased with increasing urban cover, thus causing 80th percentile runoff depths to be reached sooner. These results indicate the potential for compromised water balance when cumulative changes are considered at the watershed scale. No abrupt or threshold changes in hydrologic characteristics were identified along the urban land use gradient. A positive interaction of urban percent land use and watershed size indicated a scale effect on total runoff. Overall, the results document compromised hydrologic stability attributable to urbanization during a period with no detectable change in rainfall patterns. They also corroborate literature recommendations for spatially distributed low impact urban development techniques; measures would be needed throughout the urbanized area of a watershed to dampen event-scale hydrologic responses to urbanization. Additional research is warranted into event-scale hydrologic trends with urbanization in other regions, in particular rising limb event

Event segmentation improves event memory up to one month later.

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, Shaney; Bailey, Heather R; Eisenberg, Michelle L; Zacks, Jeffrey M

2017-08-01

When people observe everyday activity, they spontaneously parse it into discrete meaningful events. Individuals who segment activity in a more normative fashion show better subsequent memory for the events. If segmenting events effectively leads to better memory, does asking people to attend to segmentation improve subsequent memory? To answer this question, participants viewed movies of naturalistic activity with instructions to remember the activity for a later test, and in some conditions additionally pressed a button to segment the movies into meaningful events or performed a control condition that required button-pressing but not attending to segmentation. In 5 experiments, memory for the movies was assessed at intervals ranging from immediately following viewing to 1 month later. Performing the event segmentation task led to superior memory at delays ranging from 10 min to 1 month. Further, individual differences in segmentation ability predicted individual differences in memory performance for up to a month following encoding. This study provides the first evidence that manipulating event segmentation affects memory over long delays and that individual differences in event segmentation are related to differences in memory over long delays. These effects suggest that attending to how an activity breaks down into meaningful events contributes to memory formation. Instructing people to more effectively segment events may serve as a potential intervention to alleviate everyday memory complaints in aging and clinical populations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

2009-12-01

-term performance was assessed using groundwater levels at various long period observation wells, including Chilgrove. Extreme event analyses (annual maximum daily flow, annual minimum groundwater level) based on historic model runs, looking at successive 30 year time periods, show high variability in the values of extreme events, However, there is far less (by an order of magnitude) variation in more frequent (i.e. less extreme) events with a recurrence interval of around 0.6 (i.e. a return period of around 1.67 years). Simulations of climate change impact for 2020 emission scenarios using UKCIP02 data give 0.6 recurrence estimates that are significantly different (at the 1% confidence level) than those obtained from historic data, which is not the case for more extreme events. It is proposed that, at least for such permeable catchments, deviations from historic values of this relatively frequent recurrence interval provide a more robust indicator for detecting evidence of climate change than focusing on much rarer, albeit more dramatic, events.

Event by event physics in ALICE

CERN Document Server

Christakoglou, Panos

2009-01-01

Fluctuations of thermodynamic quantities are fundamental for the study of the QGP phase transition. The ALICE experiment is well suited for precise event-by-event measurements of various quantities. In this article, we review the capabilities of ALICE to study the fluctuations of several key observables such as the net charge, the temperature, and the particle ratios. Among the observables related to correlations, we review the balance functions and the long range correlations.

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Výberči Dalibor

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The impacts of summer heat events on the mortality of the Slovak population, both in total and for selected population sub-groups, are the foci of this study. This research is the first of its kind, focusing on a given population, and therefore one priority was to create a knowledge base for the issue and to basically evaluate existing conditions for the heat-mortality relationship in Slovakia. This article also aims to fill a void in current research on these issues in Europe. In addition to overall effects, we focused individually on the major historical heat events which occurred in the summers of 2007, 2010 and 2012. During the heat events, a non-negligible negative response in mortality was recorded and fatal effects were more pronounced during particularly strong heat events and periods which lasted for two or more days. In general, females and the elderly were the most sensitive groups in the population and mortality was characterized by several specific effects in individual population groups. The most extreme heat periods were commonly followed by a deficit in mortality, corresponding to a short-term mortality displacement, the pattern of which varied in specific cases. In general, displaced mortality appeared to compensate for a large part of heat-induced excess deaths.

Development and validation of multivariable predictive model for thromboembolic events in lymphoma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Antic, Darko; Milic, Natasa; Nikolovski, Srdjan; Todorovic, Milena; Bila, Jelena; Djurdjevic, Predrag; Andjelic, Bosko; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Jelicic, Jelena; Hayman, Suzanne; Mihaljevic, Biljana

2016-10-01

Lymphoma patients are at increased risk of thromboembolic events but thromboprophylaxis in these patients is largely underused. We sought to develop and validate a simple model, based on individual clinical and laboratory patient characteristics that would designate lymphoma patients at risk for thromboembolic event. The study population included 1,820 lymphoma patients who were treated in the Lymphoma Departments at the Clinics of Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia and Clinical Center Kragujevac. The model was developed using data from a derivation cohort (n = 1,236), and further assessed in the validation cohort (n = 584). Sixty-five patients (5.3%) in the derivation cohort and 34 (5.8%) patients in the validation cohort developed thromboembolic events. The variables independently associated with risk for thromboembolism were: previous venous and/or arterial events, mediastinal involvement, BMI>30 kg/m(2) , reduced mobility, extranodal localization, development of neutropenia and hemoglobin level 3). For patients classified at risk (intermediate and high-risk scores), the model produced negative predictive value of 98.5%, positive predictive value of 25.1%, sensitivity of 75.4%, and specificity of 87.5%. A high-risk score had positive predictive value of 65.2%. The diagnostic performance measures retained similar values in the validation cohort. Developed prognostic Thrombosis Lymphoma - ThroLy score is more specific for lymphoma patients than any other available score targeting thrombosis in cancer patients. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1014-1019, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Musical Education in Kazan in 1917-1960: Periodization Problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liliya Faritovna Nuriyeva

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article is devoted to justification of a periodization in music history education in Kazan and TACCP from revolutionary events of 1917 to foundation of high special music school at the Kazan State Conservatory in 1960. The research implements historical & genetic and historical & comparative methods. Justification of specifics of historical and cultural processes in the region during the declared period and about applicability of a three-part periodization, the bases for which will be cultures of the decision of the political and party management, external for the sphere, is presented. Characteristic of Kazan was the fact that till 1960 the musical school was the only educational institution in TASSR providing secondary vocational music education. Conclusions are drawn that formation of new system of musical education began at the beginning of the 20th century, and local features were considered fully. The policy for the non-Russian population pursued by the Soviet power promoted further development of music education. The conducted research also showed that in Kazan synthesis of capital cultural tradition and regional features was carried out. Materials of article can be of interest to researchers of the USSR during the specified period, experts in history and culture of the Volga region people and history of music education in Eastern Europe.

Hydrological long-term dry and wet periods in the Xijiang River basin, South China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Fischer