WorldWideScience

Sample records for inter annual variability

  1. The Greenland Sea Odden: Intra- and inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, C.A.; Fischer, K.W.; Shuchman, R.A.; Josberger, E.G.

    1997-01-01

    The "Odden" is a large sea ice feature that forms in the East Greenland Sea which generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km2. Throughout the winter, the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on time scales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. The 17 year record shows both strong inter- and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. An analysis of the satellite passive microwave derived ice area and extent time series along with meteorological data from the Arctic Drifting Buoy Network determined the meteorological forcing required for Odden growth, maintenance and decay. The key meteorological parameters which cause the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Atmospheric pressure was found not to play a significant role in the Odden events. Air temperature and wind direction are the dominant variables with temperatures below -9.5??C and winds from the west required to trigger significant Odden ice formation events. ??2004 Copyright SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering.

  2. Inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature, wind speed and sea surface height anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Pankajakshan, T.; Sathe, P.V.

    have made an attempt to study the annual and inter-annual variability of certain prominent processes occurring over the tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly mean values of Wind Speed (FSU), Sea Surface Temperature (REYNOLDS) and Sea Surface Height Anomaly...

  3. Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, L.

    2016-12-01

    Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

  4. The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term memory in long historical temperature records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Qimin; Fu, Zuntao

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the estimation of long-term correlation induced by inter-annual variability of annual cycle have been investigated by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). In a consequence of the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, the annual cycle suffers from both amplitude and phase fluctuations. How does this changing annual cycle affect the fluctuation of temperature anomalies? A recently developed adaptive data analysis tool, the Nonlinear Mode Decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle. We compared the differences of the long-term correlation calculated by removing different annual cycle, time-varying and stationary. The study was based on long historical temperature records around the North Atlantic Ocean. The traditional climatology annual cycle which lack characteristic of inter-annual fluctuation would lead to: (1) the estimation of Hurst exponent (2) how to choose scaling range and (3) the goodness of fit. Especially removing steady climatology annual cycle would introduce an artificial crossover around one-year period in the DFA curve. The conclusion is verified by generating deterministic time series through Monte Carlo simulations.

  5. Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern South China Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    of the IOD. SLA variations at decadal scale in the southeastern and northern Gulf of Thailand correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Multiple linear regression analysis of inter-annual SLAs and climate indices shows that IOD induced inter...

  6. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  7. Inter-annual variability of the carbon dioxide oceanic sink south of Tasmania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Borges

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We compiled a large data-set from 22 cruises spanning from 1991 to 2003, of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 in surface waters over the continental shelf (CS and adjacent open ocean (43° to 46° S; 145° to 150° E, south of Tasmania. Climatological seasonal cycles of pCO2 in the CS, the subtropical zone (STZ and the subAntarctic zone (SAZ are described and used to determine monthly pCO2 anomalies. These are used in combination with monthly anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST to investigate inter-annual variations of SST and pCO2. Monthly anomalies of SST (as intense as 2°C are apparent in the CS, STZ and SAZ, and are indicative of strong inter-annual variability that seems to be related to large-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Anomalies of pCO2 normalized to a constant temperature are negatively related to SST anomalies. A reduced winter-time vertical input of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC during phases of positive SST anomalies, related to a poleward shift of westerly winds, and a concomitant local decrease in wind stress is the likely cause of the negative relationship between pCO2 and SST anomalies. The observed pattern is an increase of the sink for atmospheric CO2 associated with positive SST anomalies, although strongly modulated by inter-annual variability of wind speed. Assuming that phases of positive SST anomalies are indicative of the future evolution of regional ocean biogeochemistry under global warming, we show using a purely observational based approach that some provinces of the Southern Ocean could provide a potential negative feedback on increasing atmospheric CO2.

  8. Atmospheric circulation controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kurita

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study explored the primary driver of variations of precipitation isotopes at multiple temporal scales (event, seasonal and inter-annual scales to provide a greater depth of interpretation for isotope proxy records in Japan. A one-year record of the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation at Nagoya in central Japan showed less seasonal variation, but there is large isotopic variability on a storm-to-storm basis. In the summer, southerly flows transport isotopically enriched moisture from subtropical marine regions with the result that the rainfall produced by the subtropical air, or warm rainfall, was relatively enriched in heavy isotopes in comparison with the other rainfall events. In the winter, storm tracks are the dominant driver of storm-to-storm isotopic variation, and relatively lower isotopic values occurred when northerly winds in association with extratropical cyclones passing off the south coast of Japan (Nangan cyclone brings cold precipitation. Using the historical 17 year record of monthly isotopes in precipitation at Tokyo station, we explored if the factors controlling event-scale isotopic variability can account for inter-annual isotopic variability. The relatively higher isotopes in summer precipitation were attributed to the higher contribution of the warm rainfall to the total summer precipitation. On the other hand, year-to-year variation of isotopic values in winter precipitation was negatively correlated with the relative ratio of the Nangan cyclone rainfall to the total winter precipitation. The 17 year precipitation history demonstrates that event-scale isotopic variability related to changes in meridional moisture transport is the primary driver of inter-annual isotopic variability in winter and summer precipitation. The meridional moisture transport to central Japan is likely linked to the activity of the western North Pacific subtropical high in summer and the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon

  9. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of energy exchange above a boreal Scots pine forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Launiainen

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Twelve-years of eddy-covariance measurements conducted above a boreal Scots pine forest in Hyytiälä, Southern Finland, were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface conductance (gs and energy partitioning. The gs had distinct annual course, driven by the seasonal cycle of the Scots pine. Low gs (2–3 mm s−1 in April cause the sensible heat flux to peak in May–June while evapotranspiration takes over later in July–August when gs is typically 5–7 mm s−1. Hence, during normal years Bowen ratio decreases from 4–6 in April to 0.7–0.9 in August. Sensitivity of gs to ambient vapor pressure deficit (D was relatively constant but the reference value at D = 1 kPa varied seasonally and between years. Only two drought episodes when volumetric soil moisture content in upper mineral soil decreased below 0.15 m3 m−3 occurred during the period. Below this threshold value, transpiration was strongly reduced, which promoted sensible heat exchange increasing Bowen ratio to 3–4. Annual evapotranspiration varied between 218 and 361 mm and accounted between 50% and 90% of equilibrium evaporation. The forest floor contributed between 16 and 25% of the total evapotranspiration on annual scale. The fraction stayed similar over the observed range of environmental conditions including drought periods. The inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration could not be linked to any mean climate variable while the summertime sensible heat flux and net radiation were well explained by global radiation. The energy balance closure varied annually between 0.66 and 0.95 and had a distinct seasonal cycle with worse closure in spring when a large proportion of available energy is partitioned into sensible heat.

  10. Inter-annual variability in atmospheric nitrous oxide over the past two decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Zaehle, S.; Bopp, L.; Dlugokencky, E.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived greenhouse gas and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS). This trend is largely due to the increased input of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the environment, primarily in N-fertilizers. Before the widespread usage of N-fertilizers, the naturally occurring N2O source was approximately balanced by the atmospheric sink, that is, photochemical destruction in the stratosphere. Super-imposed on the atmospheric trend, is significant inter-annual variability (IAV), which is thought to be mainly determined by inter-annual variations in stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Using global N2O records since the late 1990's (when more than 50 stations are available worldwide), we found significant IAV in the N2O atmospheric growth-rate with a positive anomaly from 1998 to 1999 in the northern hemisphere and a negative anomaly in 2003 in Europe, North America and Asia. To test the influence of the inter-annual variations in emissions versus stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the observed growth-rate, we carried out simulations using the global circulation model, LMDZ4, which was driven using ECMWF reanalysis data and was coupled to emissions estimates from the global eco-system model, Orchidee O-CN and the ocean biogeochemistry model, PISCES, which were also driven by climate data.

  11. Seasonal and inter annual variability of energy exchange above a boreal Scots pine forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Launiainen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Twelve-years of eddy-covariance measurements conducted above a boreal Scots pine forest in Hyytiälä, Southern Finland, were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface conductance (gs and energy partitioning. The gs had distinct annual course, driven by the seasonal cycle of the Scots pine. Low gs (2–3 mm s−1 in April restricted transpiration in springtime and caused the sensible heat flux to peak in May–June while evapotranspiration takes over later in July–August when gs is typically 5–7 mm s−1. Hence, during normal years Bowen ratio decreases from 4–6 in April to 0.7–0.9 in August. Sensitivity of gs to ambient vapor pressure deficit (D was relatively constant but the reference value at D=1 kPa varied seasonally and between years. Only two drought episodes when volumetric soil moisture content in upper mineral soil decreased below 0.15 m3 m−3 occurred during the period. Below this threshold value transpiration was strongly reduced, which promoted sensible heat exchange increasing Bowen ratio to 3–4. Annual evapotranspiration varied between 218 and 361 mm and accounted between 50% and 90% of equilibrium evaporation. The forest floor contributed between 16 and 25% of the total evapotranspiration on annual scale. The fraction stayed similar over the observed range of environmental conditions including drought. The inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration could not be linked to any mean climate parameter while the summertime sensible heat flux and net radiation were well explained by global radiation. The energy balance closure varied annually between 0.66 and 0.95 and had a distinct seasonal cycle with worse closure in spring when large proportion of available energy is partitioned into sensible heat.

  12. Inter-annual variability of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in Med-CORDEX simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Adani, Mario; Carillo, Adriana; Pisacane, Giovanna; Sannino, Gianmaria; Beuvier, Jonathan; Lovato, Tomas; Sevault, Florence; Vervatis, Vassilios

    2016-04-01

    Recent atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA40 and ERA-interim, and their regional dynamical downscaling prompted the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX community to perform hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, giving the opportunity to evaluate the response of different ocean models to a realistic inter-annual atmospheric forcing. Ocean numerical modeling studies have been steadily improving over the last decade through hind-cast processing, and are complementary to observations in studying the relative importance of the mechanisms playing a role in ocean variability, either external forcing or internal ocean variability. This work presents a review and an inter-comparison of the most recent hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea Circulation, produced in the framework of the Med-CORDEX initiative, at resolutions spanning from 1/8° to 1/16°. The richness of the simulations available for this study is exploited to address the effects of increasing resolution, both of models and forcing, the initialization procedure, and the prescription of the atmospheric boundary conditions, which are particularly relevant in order to model a realistic THC, in the perspective of fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere models. The mean circulation is well reproduced by all the simulations. However, it can be observed that the horizontal resolution of both atmospheric forcing and ocean model plays a fundamental role in the reproduction of some specific features of both sub-basins and important differences can be observed among low and high resolution atmosphere forcing. We analyze the mean circulation on both the long-term and decadal time scale, and the represented inter-annual variability of intermediate and deep water mass formation processes in both the Eastern and Western sub-basins, finding that models agree with observations in correspondence of specific events, such as the 1992-1993 Eastern Mediterranean Transient, and the 2005-2006 event in the Gulf of Lion. Long

  13. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

    2014-03-01

    Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of

  14. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Shapiro

    2011-02-01

    confirmed that the memory of winter convection events is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the Bottom Shelf Waters significantly reduces during the warm season. The time series of temperature in the BSW is highly correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters in the deep sea thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the Western Black Sea shelf than winter convection on the shelf itself.

  15. Inter-Annual Variability in Blue Whale Distribution off Southern Sri Lanka between 2011 and 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asha de Vos

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus movements are often driven by the availability of their prey in space and time. While globally blue whale populations undertake long-range migrations between feeding and breeding grounds, those in the northern Indian Ocean remain in low latitude waters throughout the year with the implication that the productivity of these waters is sufficient to support their energy needs. A part of this population remains around Sri Lanka where they are usually recorded close to the southern coast during the Northeast Monsoon. To investigate inter-annual variability in sighting locations, we conducted systematic Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD and visual surveys between January–March 2011 and January–March 2012. In 2011, there was a notable decrease in inshore sightings compared to 2009 and 2012 (p < 0.001. CTD data revealed that in 2011 there was increased freshwater in the upper water column accompanied by deeper upwelling than in 2012. We hypothesise that anomalous rainfall, along with higher turbidity resulting from river discharge, affected the productivity of the inshore waters and caused a shift in blue whale prey and, consequently, the distribution of the whales themselves. An understanding of how predators and their prey respond to environmental variability is important for predicting how these species will respond to long-term changes. This is especially important given the rapid temperature increases predicted for the semi-enclosed northern Indian Ocean.

  16. Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant J. Williamson; Lynda D. Prior; Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Brett P. Murphy; David M. J. S. Bowman

    2016-01-01

    Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-...

  17. Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

    2015-01-01

    Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

  18. Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Marcolla

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases, the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble bottom–up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top–down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to  ∼  120 gC m−2 y−1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m−2 y−1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively. Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV

  19. Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

    2012-12-01

    The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

  20. Global and regional methane budget and its inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourakkadi, Zakia; Payan, Sébastien; Locatelli, Robin; Chevallier, Frederic; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Methane global concentration has more than doubled since the pre-industrial times. This increase is generally caused by the anthropogenic activities like the massive use and extraction of fossil fuel, rice paddies agriculture and emissions from landfills. Space observations are very useful to monitor and quantify methane concentration in the atmosphere, in order to improve our knowledge of its sources, sinks, transport and trends. Since 2002 global methane total-columns mixing ratois from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartographY (SCIAMACHY) on board ENVISAT was the first space-borne sensitive to methane in the boundary layer. However the communication with the instrument was lost in April 2012. Since January 2009 methane columns retrievals have been available also from the Thermal And Near Infrared Sensor for carbon Observations-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS), on-board the GOSAT satellite. In this study, we used measurements in the short wave infrared radiation (SWIR) from TANSO-FTS covering 5 years, from January 2010 to December 2014 to estimate global methane fluxes by inverse modeling, using the PYVAR-LMDZ model. We present here the results of global and regional methane budget, and its inter-annual variability during this period.

  1. Wintertime Cloud Cover as a Contributor towards Inter-Annual Sea Ice Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letterly, A.; Key, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    The role of cloud forcing on Arctic sea ice is fundamental but also complex, serving as an accelerant or antagonist to ice growth on a hemispheric scale. Though sea ice decline in recent decades is largely attributed to arctic amplification, plunges in ice extent and restorative winter refreezes occurring on a year-to-year basis cannot be adequately explained by this general trend. For improved understanding and prediction of these inter-annual fluctuations in ice area, cloud forcing effects on surface energy budgets must be seen as an important factor for ice growth and melt. For example, the significant rebound of arctic sea ice from the record minimum of September 2012 was aided by the surface cooling effects of negative winter cloud cover anomalies (fewer clouds), according to a recent study using satellite and reanalysis data. For this study, the ERA-Interim reanalysis is used to diagnose and quantify the contribution of surface radiative forcing by wintertime cloud cover on sea ice during years with anomalous total ice areas. Comparisons between reanalysis of cloud forcing from September through March and passive microwave-derived ice concentrations in September demonstrate a significant inverse correlation between cloud cover during winter and the ice extent at the end of a melt season. Cloud re-emission of longwave radiation in winter months acts to curb the process by which polar seas radiatively cool to space and freeze, so that less winter cloud generally results in thicker sea ice. Here we investigate the role of winter cloud cover as a predictor and contributor to anomalous ice extent over the past 32 years. Our results stand to improve climate model projections of sea ice melt and assign some cause to large year-to-year ice area variability in a warming arctic regime.

  2. Inter-annual variability of the carbon dioxide oceanic sink south of Tasmania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Borges

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We compiled a large data-set from 22 cruises spanning from 1991 to 2003, of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 in surface waters over the continental shelf (CS and adjacent open ocean (43° to 46° S; 145° to 150° E, south of Tasmania. Sea surface temperature (SST anomalies (as intense as 2°C are apparent in the subtropical zone (STZ and subAntarctic zone (SAZ. These SST anomalies also occur on the CS, and seem to be related to large-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Anomalies of pCO2 normalized to a constant temperature are negatively related to SST anomalies. A depressed winter-time vertical input of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC during phases of positive SST anomalies, related to a poleward shift of westerly winds, and a concomitant local decrease in wind stress are the likely cause of the negative relationship between pCO2 and SST anomalies. The observed trend is an increase of the sink for atmospheric CO2 associated with positive SST anomalies, although strongly modulated by inter-annual variability of wind speed. Assuming that phases of positive SST anomalies are indicative of the future evolution of regional ocean biogeochemistry under global warming, we show using a purely observational based approach that some provinces of the Southern Ocean could provide a potential negative feedback on increasing atmospheric CO2.

  3. Phenological controls on inter-annual variability in ozone dry deposition velocity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, Olivia; Fiore, Arlene; Munger, J. William; Shevliakova, Elena; Horowitz, Larry; Malyshev, Sergey; Griffin, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    Our understanding of ozone removal by northern mid-latitude temperate deciduous forests is largely based on short-term observational studies, and thus year-to-year variations of this sink have received little attention. The specific pathways for ozone dry deposition include stomatal uptake and other non-stomatal processes that are poorly understood. Given the importance of ozone dry deposition to model accurately the tropospheric ozone budget and regional air quality, an improved mechanistic understanding of this ozone sink is needed. We investigate here the physical and biological controls on inter-annual variations in seasonal and diurnal cycles of ozone dry deposition velocity using nine years of hourly observations of eddy covariance ozone flux and concentration measurements at Harvard Forest, a northern mid-latitude temperate deciduous forest. We also use coincident eddy covariance water vapor flux and sensible heat flux and other micrometeorological measurements to infer stomatal conductance in order to separate the impacts of stomatal versus non-stomatal pathways on ozone deposition. There is a difference of approximately a factor of two between minimum and maximum monthly daytime mean ozone dry deposition velocities at Harvard Forest. The highest summertime mean ozone dry deposition velocities occur during 1998 and 1999 (0.72 cm/s), and similar seasonal and diurnal cycles occur in both years. The similar dry deposition velocities during these two years, however, may reflect compensation between different processes as mean daytime summertime stomatal conductance during 1998 is roughly 1.5 times higher than for 1999, suggesting large year-to-year variations in non-stomatal as well as stomatal uptake of ozone. We partition the onset and decline of the growing season each year into different periods using spring and fall phenology observations at Harvard Forest. Combining the dry deposition velocities across years during each phenological period, we find that

  4. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of lower stratospheric age of air spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploeger, Felix; Birner, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Trace gas transport in the lower stratosphere is investigated by analysing seasonal and inter-annual variations of the age of air spectrum - the probability distribution of stratospheric transit times. Age spectra are obtained using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim winds and total diabatic heating rates, and using a time-evolving boundary-impulse-response (BIER) method based on multiple tracer pulses. Seasonal age spectra show large deviations from an idealized stationary uni-modal shape. Multiple modes emerge in the spectrum throughout the stratosphere, strongest at high latitudes, caused by the interplay of seasonally varying tropical upward mass flux, stratospheric transport barriers and recirculation. Inter-annual variations in transport (e.g. quasi-biennial oscillation) cause significant modulations of the age spectrum shape. In fact, one particular QBO phase may determine the spectrum's mode during the following 2-3 years. Interpretation of the age spectrum in terms of transport contributions due to the residual circulation and mixing is generally not straightforward. It turns out that advection by the residual circulation represents the dominant pathway in the deep tropics and in the winter hemisphere extratropics above 500 K, controlling the modal age in these regions. In contrast, in the summer hemisphere, particularly in the lowermost stratosphere, mixing represents the most probable pathway controlling the modal age.

  5. Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Maclaurin, Galen [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Billy [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rosenlieb, Evan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-25

    Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.

  6. Inter-annual variability in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions due to temperature anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bréon, F.-M.; Boucher, O.; Brender, P.

    2017-07-01

    It is well known that short-term (i.e. interannual) variations in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are closely related to the evolution of the national economies. Nevertheless, a fraction of the CO2 emissions are linked to domestic and business heating and cooling, which can be expected to be related to the meteorology, independently of the economy. Here, we analyse whether the signature of the inter-annual temperature anomalies is discernible in the time series of CO2 emissions at the country scale. Our analysis shows that, for many countries, there is a clear positive correlation between a heating-degree-person index and the component of the CO2 emissions that is not explained by the economy as quantified by the gross domestic product (GDP). Similarly, several countries show a positive correlation between a cooling-degree-person (CDP) index and CO2 emissions. The slope of the linear relationship for heating is on the order of 0.5-1 kg CO2 (degree-day-person)-1 but with significant country-to-country variations. A similar relationship for cooling shows even greater diversity. We further show that the inter-annual climate anomalies have a small but significant impact on the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions, both at the national and global scale. Such a meteorological effect was a significant contribution to the rather small and unexpected global emission growth rate in 2014 while its contribution to the near zero emission growth in 2015 was insignificant.

  7. Modelling coastal connectivity in a Western Boundary Current: Seasonal and inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roughan, Moninya; Macdonald, Helen S.; Baird, Mark E.; Glasby, Tim M.

    2011-03-01

    Understanding the transport and distribution of marine larvae by ocean currents is one of the key goals of population ecology. Here we investigate circulation in the East Australian Current (EAC) and its impact on the transport of larvae and coastal connectivity. A series of Lagrangian particle trajectory experiments are conducted in summer and winter from 1992-2006 which enables us to investigate seasonal and inter-annual variability. We also estimate a mean connectivity state from the average of each of the individual realisations. Connectivity patterns are related to the movement of five individual larval species (two tropical, two temperate and one invasive species) and are found to be in qualitative agreement with historical distribution patterns found along the coast of SE Australia. We use a configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model to investigate physical processes in the ocean along the coast of SE Australia where the circulation is dominated by the EAC, a vigorous western boundary current. We assimilate hydrographic fields from a ˜10-km global analysis into a ˜3-km resolution continental shelf model to create a high-resolution hindcast of ocean state for each summer and winter from 1992-2006. Particles are released along the coast of SE Australia, and at various isobaths across the shelf (25-1000 m) over timescales ranging from 10-90 days. Upstream of the EAC separation point across-shelf release location dominates the particle trajectory length scales, whereas seasonality dominates in the southern half of the domain, downstream of the separation point. Lagrangian probability density functions show dispersion pathways vary with release latitude, distance offshore and the timescale of dispersion. Northern (southern) release sites are typified by maximum (minimum) dispersal pathways. Offshore release distance also plays a role having the greatest impact at the mid-latitude release sites. Maximum alongshore dispersion occurs at the mid-latitude release

  8. Changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America from RegCM projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Coppola, Erika; Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Giorgi, Filippo; Pavia, Edgar G.; Graef, Federico

    2013-04-01

    Future climate projections performed with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) are used to analyze the future changes on inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America. Two different global circulation models from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMPI5) are used as boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations, which result in four different climate projections. Through a comparison of the precipitation annual cycles in reference period with future simulations, a shift in the annual cycle is found over Northwestern Mexico and Central America. During the rainy season (June to September), it is found an increase in the inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature, together with a warming greater than 4°C in the mean seasonal temperature and a drying of more than 20%. An increased warming on the Eastern Pacific Ocean compared to the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean potentially generates a strengthened North Atlantic Subtropical High Pressure and also a stronger Caribbean Low Level Jet. This future ENSO-like state appears to be the mechanism driving the drying over the region

  9. Space-time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanto; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the space-time variability of wet (Nov-Apr) and dry (May-Oct) season rainfall over Indonesia, using monthly gridded rainfall data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit covering the period 1901-2012. Three complimentary techniques were employed—(1) principal component analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability, (2) wavelet spectral analysis to identify the spectral characteristics of the leading modes and their coherence with large scale climate variables and (3) Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model (BDLM) to quantify the temporal variability of the association between rainfall modes and climate variables. In the dry season when the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is to the north of the equator the leading two principal components (PCs) explain close to 50 % of the rainfall. In the wet season the ITCZ moves to the south and the leading PCs explain close to 30 % of the variance. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of the leading modes of rainfall variability during both seasons. We find asymmetry in the teleconnections of ENSO to high and low rainfall years in the dry season. Furthermore, ENSO and the leading PCs of rainfall have spectral coherence in the inter-annual band (2-8 years) over the entire period of record and in the multi-decadal (8-16 years) band in post-1980 years. In addition, during the 1950-1980 period the second mode of variability in both seasons has a strong relationship with Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The association between ENSO and the leading mode of Indonesian rainfall has strengthened in recent decades, more so during dry season. These inter-annual and multi-decadal variability of Indonesian rainfall modulated by Pacific climate drivers has implications for rainfall and hydrologic predictability important for water resources management.

  10. Inter-annual to inter-decadal streamflow variability in Quebec and Ontario in relation to dominant large-scale climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalley, D.; Adamowski, J.; Khalil, B.; Biswas, A.

    2016-05-01

    The impacts of large-scale climate oscillations on hydrological systems and their variability have been documented in different parts of the world. Since hydroclimatic data are known to exhibit non-stationary characteristics, spectral analyses such as wavelet transforms are very useful in extracting time-frequency information from such data. As Canadian studies, particularly those of regions east of the Prairies, using wavelet transform-based methods to draw links between relevant climate indices [e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] and streamflow variability are not common, this study aims to analyze such relationships for the southern regions of Quebec and Ontario. Monthly and annual streamflow data with a record length of 55 years were used to capture streamflow variability at intra-annual, inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. The continuous wavelet transform spectra of monthly streamflow data revealed consistent significant 6- and 12-month periodicities, which are likely associated with strong seasonality factors. Its annual counterparts showed four different significant periodicities: up to 4 years, 4-6 years, 6-8 years, and greater than 8 years - all of which occurred after the late 1960s/early 1970s. Wavelet coherence analyses show that the influence of ENSO and NAO at the inter-annual scale occurs at 2-6 year periodicities, and the influence of PDO occur at periodicities up to 8 years and exceeding 16 years. Correlations between these climate indices and streamflow were computed to determine the time delay of streamflow response to the influence of ENSO, NAO, and PDO. The lag times ranged from 6-48 months (for monthly data) and 1-4 years (for annual data). This research contributes to our understanding of streamflow variability over the southern parts of Quebec and Ontario, and the role of ENSO, NAO, and PDO phenomena on this variability. These relationships can

  11. Inter-annual and inter-decade variability of the oxygen isotopic composition of massive corals from the South China Sea and the climatic influencing factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Ruixia; ZHU Zhaoyu; CHEN Xiaomin

    2006-01-01

    Coral colonies of Porites lutea and P.lobata were collected from the east offshore of Hainan Island, South China Sea. Oxygen isotope ratios, 18O/16O, were analyzed along the major axis of growth at a resolution of 25-28 samples within an annual band from three colonies in order to study the relation between coral oxygen isotopic composition and the monsoonal climate in seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decade time scales. The results indicate that the seasonal and inter-annual variations of coral δ18O are mainly controlled by temperature. While the coral δ18O is mainly controlled by SST, deviations of the δ18O from SST correlate statistically with sea surface salinity. Therefore, we suggest that the interannual variation of the annual coral δ18O minima is mainly controlled by seawater composition. Seawater composition analysis indicates that its δ18O and salinity are simultaneously affected by freshwater inputs primarily from precipitation, which is mainly supplied by the Asian summer monsoon. Thus seasonal alternations of the winter and summer monsoon mainly control the coral δ18O, thereby allowing reconstruction of these monsoonal variables. These inter-decadal trends are roughly consistent with salinity changes, but not with temperature and precipitation,suggesting that seawater composition controlled by freshwater inputs from distant source areas, rather than from local precipitation, is responsible for the trends in seawater composition and coral δ18O which is probably the consequence of monsoonal precipitation over the source areas of freshwater, evaporation and the water exchange between South China Sea and Pacific Ocean.

  12. Inter-annual variability of exchange processes at the outer Black Sea shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Georgy; Wobus, Fred; Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Zheng

    2014-05-01

    zsoy, 1997. The Black Sea Cold Intermediate Layer, in: Özsoy, E. and A. Mikaelyan (editors), Sensitivity to Change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea, NATO ASI Series (Partnership Sub-series, Environment, 27), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 536 pp. Shapiro, G.I., F. Wobus, D.L. Aleynik, 2011. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf, Ocean Science 7, 585-596. Shapiro, G., Luneva, M., Pickering, J., and Storkey, D., 2013. The effect of various vertical discretization schemes and horizontal diffusion parameterization on the performance of a 3-D ocean model: the Black Sea case study, Ocean Science, 9, 377-390. Staneva, J. V. and E. V. Stanev, 1997. Cold water mass formation in the Black Sea. Analysis on numerical model simulations. In: E. Ozsoy and A. Mikaelyan (eds.), Sensitivity to change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea. NATO ASI Series, Vol. 27, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 375-393.

  13. Inter-Annual Variability of Fledgling Sex Ratio in King Penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Célia Bordier

    Full Text Available As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000-2009 in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus, we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males, and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%. Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally, suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1∶1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher's classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation.

  14. Spatial, temporal, and inter-annual variability of the Martian northern seasonal polar cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mount, Christopher P.

    artificial increase in shadow length. This increases the apparent height of a rock and thus decreases the apparent surface ice depth. Additionally, moats may form around rocks with sufficient heat capacity to sublime ice as it is deposited. Moating will also artificially increase the shadow lengths (decreasing apparent surface ice depth). We correct for these effects in our depth-estimation technique. We balance incoming solar flux with outgoing thermal radiation from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations to calculate the column mass abundance. TES thermal bolometer atmospheric albedo and temperature observations are a good proxy to the surface bond albedo and effective surface temperature. These parameters are needed to balance the incoming and outgoing flux. Mars' atmosphere is tenuous so we assume homogeneous radiance from the surface to the top of the atmosphere, no lateral diffusion of heat, and that any excess heat goes into subliming surface ice in our flux balance. Using a Monte Carlo model, we integrate the net flux until reaching the time where Cap Recession Observations indicate CO2 has Ultimately Sublimed (the CROCUS date) to obtain the column mass abundance. We study seasonal ice at three distinct geomorphic units: plains, dune fields, and craters. Two plains regions, four dunes regions, and two crater regions are analyzed over springtime sublimation. Data for these regions spanned three Mars Years. Our results indicate that the evolution of seasonally deposited CO 2 ice on the Northern Polar Cap of Mars is highly dependent on complex relationships between various processes. The grain size, dust contamination, water doping, and density vary dramatically over time. The initially deposited material varies according to local geomorphic features and topography, as well as latitude and longitude. The inter-annual variability of ice may play a role in its evolution over sublimation, but likely plays a smaller role than anticipated. Low normalized initial

  15. Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

    2017-05-01

    Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

  16. Quantifying the impact of the major driving mechanisms of inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Akimova, Anna

    2017-05-01

    New 67-year long (1948-2014) gridded time series of salinity in the North Sea at all depths allowed to quantify, spatially resolved, the amount of inter-annual salinity variability explained by each of its driving mechanisms: sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation, river run-off, zonal and meridional winds and currents over the eastern North Atlantic. For the current data, not only annual averages but also their deviations, as measure of turbulence, were considered. Our results summarize and expand the knowledge gathered in the last 50 years about the mechanisms driving inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea. Three mechanisms, uncorrelated with each other and acting over separate regions of the North Sea, arise as most important: (1) River run-off from continental Europe explains 50-80% of inter-annual salinity variations at lag 0 in the Southern and German Bights and the Norwegian Trench up to the connection with the North Atlantic, down to the seabed near the coasts and to the deep Norwegian Trench (100 m); (2) Remote variations of salinity in the Rockall Trough explain 70% of salinity variations of the tongue of high salinity in the northwestern North Sea with a lag of one year and down the water column; (3) The Neva discharge explains 60% of salinity changes in Skagerrak and southern Norwegian trench at lag 0. An explanation for this correlation might be the Baltic freshwater outflow being modulated by the Neva discharge through intensification of the estuarine gravitational circulation. We confirmed known relations between river run-off, precipitation over continental Europe, SLP over northern Europe and zonal wind over western Europe. Linked to these changes, we found also changes of meridional wind north of Scotland favoring eastward Ekman transport of salty North Atlantic waters into the North Sea off the Norwegian coast. Excluding this only case, we found no significant correlation between wind-driven currents and North Sea salinity changes

  17. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  18. Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

  19. Inter- and intra-annual variability of vegetation in the northern hemisphere and its association with precursory meteorological factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Hong, Seungbum; Park, Seon Ki

    2013-01-01

    Determination of phenological variation is one of the most critical challenges in dynamic vegetation modeling, given the lack of a strong theoretical framework. Previous studies generally focused on the timing of a phenological event (e.g., bud-burst or onset of growing season) and its atmospheric prompts, but not on the interactive variations across phenological stages. This study, therefore, investigated the inter- and intra-annual variability existing in all the phenological stages and the relations of the variability with four meteorological variables (surface temperature (Ts), shortwave radiation (SW), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation (PRCP)) using a 25-year (1982-2006) dataset of leaf area index (LAI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our six study sites of each 4° × 4° grids (mixed forest in China, deciduous needle-leaf forest in Siberia, evergreen needle-leaf forest in western Canada, grass in Gobi, and crops in the Central United States and southeastern Europe) include various vegetation types, local climates, and land-use types in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with detrended LAI anomalies identified the two leading EOF modes that account for the amplitude and phase of the monthly LAI variations. The inter-annual correlation between the principle components (PCs) of the two modes and the meteorological variables for spring and summer showed that the amplitude and phase modes (AM and PM, respectively) were affected by different dominant meteorological factors. Over most of the study regions, AM was positively correlated with PRCP and negatively with Ts, SW, and VPD, while PM was predominantly positively correlated with Ts. The contrasting responses of the two EOF modes to Ts reflect environmental limitations on plant growth such as early start of growth, but with a reduced value of maximum LAI in a year with a warm spring. In addition, insignificant

  20. Impact of inter-annual climatic variability on ecosystem carbon exchange in two grazed temperate grasslands with contrasting drainage regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choncubhair, Órlaith Ní; Humphreys, James; Lanigan, Gary

    2014-05-01

    Temperate grasslands constitute over 30% of the Earth's naturally-occurring biomes and make an important contribution towards the partial mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by terrestrial ecosystems. Accumulation of carbon (C) in grassland systems predominantly takes place in below-ground repositories, enhanced by the presence of a stable soil environment with low carbon turnover rates, active rhizodeposition and high levels of residue and organic inputs. Predicted future warming is expected to increase productivity in temperate zones, thereby enhancing rates of terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, the susceptibility of many ecosystems, including grasslands, to extreme climatic events and inter-annual variability has been demonstrated previously. Temperature anomalies as well as modifications in the temporal pattern and quantity of precipitation alter the balance between carbon uptake and release processes and a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem response to such changes is still lacking. In the present study, the impact of extreme inter-annual variability in summer rainfall and temperature on carbon dynamics in two rotationally-grazed grasslands in Ireland was examined. The sites experience similar temperate climatic regimes but differ in soil drainage characteristics. Eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of carbon were complemented by regular assessment of standing biomass, leaf cover, harvest exports and organic amendment inputs. The summers of 2012 and 2013 showed contrasting climatic conditions, with summer precipitation 93% higher and 25% lower respectively than long-term means. In addition, soil temperatures were 7% lower and 11% higher than expected. Cool, wet conditions in 2012 facilitated net carbon uptake for more than ten months of the year at the poorly-drained site, however the ecosystem switched to a net source of carbon in 2013 during months with significantly reduced rainfall. In contrast, net C

  1. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface circulation in the Bay of Bengal from TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

    -Sea Research II 50 (2003) 867–880 Seasonal and inter-annual variabilityof surface circulation in the Bayof Bengal from TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry Y.K. Somayajulu*, V.S.N. Murty, Y.V.B. Sarma Physical Oceanography Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona...-0645/03/$-see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00610-0 etal.(2003).However,thesestudieswereunableto discern inter-annual variabilityin the mesoscale features of baycirculation. In this paper, sea...

  2. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  3. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

    2017-05-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

  4. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  5. Extratropical influences on the inter-annual variability of South-Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, F. S.; Yoo, J. H.; Körnich, H.; Kucharski, F.

    2012-04-01

    The effects of extratropical dynamics on the interannual variations in South-Asian Monsoon (SAM) are examined. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU precipitation data, a conditional maximum covariance analysis is performed on sea level pressure, 200 hPa geopotential heights and the SAM rainfall by removing the linear effects of El-Niño Southern Oscillation from the fields. It is found that two modes provide a strong connection between the upper-level circulation in the Atlantic/European region and SAM rainfall: the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The structures in the 200 hPa heights of both modes in the Atlantic region are similar in the Atlantic region, and their southeastward extension to South Asia (SA) also corresponds to upper-level ridges (in their positive phases) in slightly different positions. Nevertheless, the influence of both modes on SAM rainfall is distinct. Whereas a positive CGT is related to a widespread increase of rainfall in SAM, a positive SNAO is related to a precipitation dipole with its positive phase over Pakistan and the negative phase over northern India. The physical mechanisms for the influence of CGT and SNAO on SAM are related to the upper-level geopotential anomaly which affects the amplitude and position of the low-level convergence. The small displacements of the centers of these responses and the low level cold advection from the north east of SA in case of SNAO explain the differences in the corresponding SAM rainfall distributions. These findings are confirmed with the relatively high-resolution coupled climate model EC-Earth, which gives confidence in the physical basis and robustness of these extratropical variability modes and their influence on the South-Asian monsoon rainfall.

  6. A neural network-based estimate of the seasonal to inter-annual variability of the Atlantic Ocean carbon sink

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landschützer, P.; Gruber, N.; Bakker, D.C.E.;

    2013-01-01

    –18° N, 0.11 ± 0.07 Pg C yr–1), and uptake in the subtropical/temperate South Atlantic south of 18° S (–0.16 ± 0.06 Pg C yr–1), consistent with recent studies. We find the strongest seasonal variability of the CO2 flux in the temperature driven subtropical North Atlantic, with uptake in winter...... poleward of 40° N, but many other parts of the North Atlantic increased more slowly, resulting in a barely changing Atlantic carbon sink north of the equator (–0.007 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). Surface ocean pCO2 was also increasing less than that of the atmosphere over most of the Atlantic south of the equator......, leading to a substantial trend toward a stronger CO2 sink for the entire South Atlantic (–0.14 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). The Atlantic carbon sink varies relatively little on inter-annual time-scales (±0.04 Pg C yr–1; 1σ)...

  7. Inter-annual variability of summertime CO2 exchange in Northern Eurasia inferred from GOSAT XCO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizawa, M.; Mabuchi, K.; Shirai, T.; Inoue, M.; Morino, I.; Uchino, O.; Yoshida, Y.; Belikov, D.; Maksyutov, S.

    2016-10-01

    Northern Eurasia is one of the largest terrestrial carbon reservoirs on the Earth’s surface. However, since the coverage of surface CO2 observations is still limited, the response to the climate variability remains uncertain. We estimated monthly CO2 fluxes for three sub-regions in Northern Eurasia (north of ˜60°N), Northeastern Europe, Western Siberia and Eastern Siberia, using CO2 retrievals from the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The variations of estimated CO2 fluxes were examined in terms of the regional climate variability, for the three consecutive growing seasons of 2009-2011. The CO2 fluxes estimated using GOSAT data are highly correlated with the surface temperature anomalies in July and August (r > 0.8) while no correlation is found in the CO2 fluxes estimated only using surface observations. The estimated fluxes from GOSAT data exhibit high negative correlations with one-month lagged positive precipitation anomalies in late summer (r > -0.7) through surface temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results indicate that GOSAT data reflects the changes in terrestrial biospheric processes responding to climate anomalies. In 2010, a large part of Eurasia experienced an extremely hot and dry summer, while cold and wet weather conditions were recorded in Western Siberia. The CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT data showed a reduction of net CO2 uptake in Northeastern Europe and Eastern Siberia, but the enhancement of net CO2 uptake in Western Siberia. These opposite sub-regional flux anomalies can be explained by the different climate anomalies on a sub-regional scale in Northern Eurasia. Thus, this study demonstrates that space-based observations by GOSAT compensate for the lack of ground-based observational coverage so as to better capture the inter-annually varying atmosphere-terrestrial biosphere CO2 exchange on a regional scale.

  8. Inter-annual variability and forecast of the spring ice phenomena on Lake Baikal and reservoirs of the Angara cascade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. N. Sutyrina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of interannual variability of ice phenomena on large inland waters, as well as the ice forecasts for them are of great practical importance for navigation because any ice on water interferes with navigation. This article presents a description of the developed approach to mapping the stages of melting and destruction of ice cover on Lake Baikal, and the Bratsk and Ust-Ilimsk reservoirs using data from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and shows examples of the ice condition maps in the spring. The AVHRR data, obtained for the period 1998–2015, made possible to analyze processes of the ice disappearance on aquatories of the South, Central and North parts of Lake Baikal, and the Bratsk and Ust'-Ilimsk reservoirs including determination of dates of the total ice disappearance (the first ice-free dates on the reservoirs under investigation: the average, earliest and latest dates, and a range. It has been found that the interannual changes of these dates are the opposite to the inter-annual fluctuations of values of the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, that allows using the AO index as a predictor in regional predictive dependencies.Using results of analysis of the AO index values, averaged over different time intervals, and the data series of the first dates of the ice-free situations we constructed regional equations allowing to foresee a character of the ice situation with the average earliness from 21 to 33 days. Tests of effectiveness of the proposed predictive dependencies demonstrated a good quality of forecasts of the dates when Southern, Central and Northern parts of Lake Baikal,as well the Bratsk and Ust-Ilimsk reservoirs become totally free of ice.

  9. Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

    2016-09-15

    Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years.

  10. Responses of Plant Community and Soil Properties to Inter-Annual Precipitation Variability and Grazing Durations in a Desert Steppe in Inner Mongolia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhen; YUN Xiang-jun; WEI Zhi-jun; Michael P Schellenberg; WANG Yun-feng; YANG Xia; HOU Xiang-yang

    2014-01-01

    Grazing can dramatically affect arid grassland communities that are very vulnerable to environmental changes due to its relatively short and sparse ground coverage, low biomass, sandy soil and inter-annual precipitation found in the desert steppe. The study investigates the effects of different grazing durations on vegetation and soil properties of a desert steppe community. The experiment was conducted in Xisu Banner in Inner Mongolia with ifve treatments:CG (continuous grazing), 40UG (40 d ungrazed), 50UG (50 d ungrazed), 60UG (60 d ungrazed) and UG (ungrazed). The biomass of both shrub and annual-biennial plant communities were signiifcantly decreased by CG. Continuous grazing and 40UG signiifcantly reduced the ANPP (aboveground net primary productivity) by the end of the three year study. 60UG treatment increased soil organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen concentration (TN) and total phosphorus concentration (TP) concentrations and 50UG increased the TN and total phosphorus concentration (TK) concentrations, whereas CG, 40UG and 50UG decreased soil OC, TP and available phosphorus concentration (AP) concentrations. The perennial plant species of the desert steppe were generally tolerant for grazing. The annual-biennial plant species had large variability in ANPP because of the inter-annual precipitation. Our results highlight that inter-annual precipitation variations could strongly modify the community responses to grazing in arid ecosystems.

  11. Inter-annual variability of the acoustic propagation in the Yellow Sea identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as compared with GDEM

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This research investigates the inter-annual acoustic variability in the Yellow Sea identified from the Synoptic Monthly Gridded-World Ocean Database (SMG-WOD) as compared with the Navy's Global Digital Environmental Model (GDEM). The SMG-WOD has a horizontal resolution of 1˚, 28 vertical levels from the surface to 3000 m depth and one-month temporal increments allowing individual years of acoustic data to be analyzed, whereas GDEM is a...

  12. Calibration of the INCA model in a Mediterranean forested catchment: the effect of hydrological inter-annual variability in an intermittent stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bernal

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Mediterranean regions are characterised by a stream hydrology with a marked seasonal pattern and high inter-annual variability. Accordingly, soil N processes and leaching of solutes in Mediterranean regions also show a marked seasonality, occurring in pulses as soils re-wet following rain. The Integrated Nitrogen Catchment model (INCA was applied to Fuirosos, a Mediterranean catchment located in NE Spain using hydrological data and streamwater nitrate and ammonium concentrations collected from 1999 to 2002. This study tested the model under Mediterranean climate conditions and assessed the effect of the high inter-annual variability on the ability of INCA to simulate discharge and N fluxes. The model was calibrated for the whole three-year period and the n coefficients of determinion (r2 between simulated and observed data were 0.54 and 0.1 for discharge and nitrate temporal dynamics, respectively. Ammonium dynamics were simulated poorly and the linear regression between observed and simulated data was not significant statistically. To assess the effect of inter-annual variability on INCA simulations, the calibration process was run separately for two contrasting hydrological years: a dry year with a total rainfall of 525 mm and a wet year with a total of 871 mm. The coefficients of determination for the correlation between observed and simulated discharge for these two periods were 0.67 (p2 = 0.13 p2 = 0.56 p Keywords: environmental modelling, intermittent stream, Mediterranean climate, Fuirosos, hydrology, nitrate

  13. Inter-annual Variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in a Temperate Freshwater Marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneville, M.; Strachan, I.

    2009-05-01

    There exists very little information on greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange in marsh wetlands, especially in temperate climates. Measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes were made from May 2005 to June 2008 in a temperate freshwater cattail marsh in Eastern Ontario, Canada. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 was measured continuously using the eddy covariance technique, and closed chambers were used to measure CH4 emissions from open water, soil, and vegetated portions of the marsh. Based on NEE, we found that the marsh accumulated 264 g C m-2 from May 2005 to April 2006 and 185 g C m-2 and 308 g C m-2 in 2006-2007 and 2007-2008, respectively. Lower spring temperature in 2005 seems to have delayed the initial growth of cattails and therefore led to a later switchover time from a net CO2 source to a net CO2 sink compared to spring 2006 and 2007. The lower cumulative NEE measured in 2006-2007 is mainly due to the cloudy conditions (i.e. low average incoming photosynthetically active radiation) that occurred through late summer and early fall 2006, which greatly decreased cattail photosynthesis and induced an earlier death of the pants, which in turn resulted in a lower average CO2 uptake compared to the other years. During the 2005, 2006 and 2007 growing seasons, the carbon uptake period was 109, 104, and 116 days in length, which is consistent with the inter-annual variability in NEE observed. The results suggest that the timing of the fall switchover from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source is probably the main factor influencing the annual CO2 accumulation. The average CH4 flux measured from open water was 658 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2005, 381 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2006, and 352 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2008. The average CH4 flux from vegetation was 1001 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2005, 1640 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2006, and 1260 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2008. The CH4 flux from soil was only measured in 2006 (255 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) and 2008 (224 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). It is known that the

  14. Seasonal and inter-annual turbidity variability in the Río de la Plata from 15 years of MODIS: El Niño dilution effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogliotti, A. I.; Ruddick, K.; Guerrero, R.

    2016-12-01

    Spatio-temporal variability of turbidity in the Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary (Argentina) at seasonal and inter-annual timescales is analyzed from 15 years (2000-2014) of MODIS data and explained in terms of river discharges and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Satellite estimates were first validated using in situ turbidity measurements and then the time series of monthly averages were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of turbidity. A strong seasonal variability was found in the upper and middle estuary with high turbidity from March to May and low turbidity from June to January. It was found that this variability is highly correlated to the seasonal cycle of the water discharge of the Bermejo river with a one-month delay between its peak and turbidity in the upper RdP estuary. On inter-annual time scales the influence of ENSO shows low turbidity amplitudes in the upper and middle estuary during moderate El Niño years, while the opposite pattern is observed in some La Niña years. A dilution effect during El Niño years is observed given that the main tributaries, which provide ∼92% of the liquid discharge, show water discharge increases due to excess in rain, while the Bermejo river, which provides ∼70% of the solid discharge and only 2% of the liquid discharge to the RdP, does not show this inter-decadal periodicity. In turn, increased turbidities are observed when negative RdP water discharge anomalies occurred, but this is not always related to La Niña events, since these events are not the only predictor for drought in this region.

  15. Evaluating Inter-Annual Climate Variability of Nitrogen Wet Deposition in the United States Using Wavelet Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nergui, T.; Thomas, N.; Liu, M.; Lamb, B. K.; Adam, J. C.; Chung, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    Human activities, primarily agricultural practices and fossil fuel combustion, have caused a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions into the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The increase in emission subsequently leads to elevated ozone concentration, haze, increased acid rain and N deposition at local and regional scales. Many ecosystems in the US are naturally N limited. These regions are highly vulnerable to increased N deposition which can lead to irreversible changes in biodiversity richness and composition of the ecosystems. Through the impact on atmospheric chemistry and scavenging by precipitation, climate variability can play a major role on N deposition rates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) indices are the key climate indices that characterize the climate in the contiguous US at inter-annual timescale. Here, we identify dominant periodic components (signal) in the N wet deposition and the climate index timeseries and examine their correlations and coherences using wavelet analysis. Seasonal precipitation and nitrogen (ammonium and nitrate) wet deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), National Trends Network (NTN) for 87 sites across the United States are used for the study. The sites were selected based on data continuity of 21 years or more and NADP criteria for valid precipitation and wet deposition data. Precipitation data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are also used to replicate and validate the general features of climate variability effects in different regions of US. Initial analysis reveals nitrate wet deposition has a dominant 1-4 year periodicity while ammonium wet deposition has a shorter periodicity (about 0.5-2 year) during 1979 to 2011. Precipitation and total N wet deposition are most correlated in the Great Plains

  16. Influence of inter-annual environmental variability on chrysophyte cyst assemblages: insight from a 2-years sediment trap study in lakes from northern Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iván Hernández-Almeida

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative paleonvironmental studies using transfer functions are developed from training sets. However, changes in some variables (e.g., climatic can be difficult to identify from short-term monitoring (e.g., less than one year. Here, we present the study of the chrysophyte cyst assemblages from sediment traps deployed during two consecutive years (November 2011-November 2013 in 14 lakes from Northern Poland. The studied lakes are distributed along a W-E climatological gradient, with very different physical, chemical and morphological characteristics, and land-uses. Field surveys were carried out to recover the sediment trap material during autumn, along with the measurement of several environmental variables (nutrients, major water ions, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a. During the study, one year experienced mild seasonal changes in air temperature (November 2011-November 2012; TS1, typical of oceanic climate, while the other year was characterized by colder winter and spring (November 2012-November 2013; TS2, and higher summer temperatures, more characteristic of continental climate. Other environmental variables (e.g., nutrients did not show great changes between both years. Multivariate statistical analyses (RDA and DCA were performed on individual TS1 and TS2 datasets. Water chemistry and nutrients (pH, TN and TP explained the largest portion of the variance of the chrysophyte data for the individual years. However, analyses of the combined TS1 and TS2 datasets show that strong changes between summer and autumn (warm period, ice-free period with thermal stratification and winter and spring (cold period, ice-cover period play the most important role in the inter-annual variability in the chrysophyte assemblages. We show how inter-annual sampling maximizes ecological gradients of interest, particularly in regions with large environmental diversity, and low climatic variability. This methodology could help to identify

  17. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature at the east coast fishing area off Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurul Ridani, S.; Mustapha, M. A.; Lihan, T.; Ku Kassim, K. Y.; Raja Bidin, R. H.

    2015-09-01

    Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to study a time-series of the aqua MODIS data imageries in the exclusive economic zone of east coast off Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal and spatial characteristics were examined to determine the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from January 2003 to December 2011.The data were analysed from daily Level 1A (1km spatial resolution) to monthly composites Level 3 data using SeaDAS and ERDAS imagine software. Four modes was obtained from the analysis with the highest variance (7.9%) represented by mode 1 which explained the seasonal cycle. Mode 2 (5.11 % of total variance) showed positive and negative peak signal during March and April and in October and November with variability near the Kelantan and Pahang waters that indicated the inter monsoon. Mode 3 (3.8 % of variance) shows variability near the Terengganu, Kelantan and Johor waters to the open sea during July and August and in May and June representing the Southwest monsoon. Mode 4 (3.36 %) showed positive signal during November and December with strong signal near Pahang and Kelantan waters while weak signal was detected near Terengganu and Kelantan's open sea representing the Northeast monsoon. The SST variability was influenced by the monsoonal system which originated by the wind forcing condition that influences circulation in the study area.

  18. Explaining the inter-annual variability in the ecosystem fluxes of the Brasschaat Scots pine forest: 20 years of eddy flux and pollution monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horemans, Joanna; Roland, Marilyn; Janssens, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

    2017-04-01

    Because of their ecological and recreational value, the health of forest ecosystems and their response to global change and pollution are of high importance. At a number of EuroFlux and ICOS ecosystem sites in Europe - as the Brasschaat forest site - the measurements of ecosystem fluxes of carbon and other gases are combined with vertical profiles of air pollution within the framework of the ICP-Forest monitoring program. The Brasschaat forest is dominated by 80-year old Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), and has a total area of about 150 ha. It is situated near an urban area in the Campine region of Flanders, Belgium and is characterized by a mean annual temperature of 9.8 °C and an annual rainfall of 830 mm. In this contribution we report on a long-term analysis (1996-2016) of the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes, the energy exchanges and the pollutant concentrations (ozone, NOx, NH3, SO2). Particular interest goes to the inter-annual variation of the carbon fluxes and the carbon allocation patterns. The impact of the long-term (aggregated) and the short-term variability in both the meteorological drivers and in the main tropospheric pollutants on the carbon fluxes is examined, as well as their mutual interactive effects and their potential memory effect. The effect of variability in the drivers during the phenological phases (seasonality) on the inter-annual variability of the fluxes is also examined. Basic statistical techniques as well as spectral analyses and data mining techniques are being used.

  19. Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2016-11-01

    Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

  20. Satellite views of seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton blooms in the eastern China seas over the past 14 yr (1998–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. F. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The eastern China seas are one of the largest marginal seas in the world, where high primary productivity and phytoplankton blooms are often observed. However, to date, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in these areas due to the difficulty of the monitoring of bloom events by field measurement. In this study, 14-yr time series of satellite ocean color data from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS onboard the Aqua satellite have been used to investigate the seasonal and inter-annual variability and long-term changes of phytoplankton blooms in the eastern China seas. We validated and calibrated the satellite-derive chlorophyll concentration in the eastern China seas based on extensive data sets from two large cruises. Overestimation of satellite-derive chlorophyll concentration caused by high water turbidity was found to be less than 10 μg L−1. This level can be used as a safe threshold for the identification of a phytoplankton bloom in a marginal sea with turbid waters. Annually, blooms mostly occur in the Changjiang Estuary and along the coasts of Zhejiang. The coasts of the northern Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea also have high-frequency blooms. The blooms have significant seasonal variation, with most of the blooms occurring in the spring (April–June and summer (July–September. This study revealed a doubling in bloom intensity in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea during the past 14 yr (1998–2011, yet surprisingly, there has been no decadal increase or decrease of bloom intensity in despite of significant inter-annual variation in the Changjiang Estuary. The time series in situ datasets show that both the nitrate and phosphate concentrations increase more than twofold from 1998 to 2005. This might be the reason for the doubling of bloom intensity in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. In addition, the ENSO and PDO can affect the

  1. The inter-annual variability of mesosphere-thermosphere nightglow intensities and their possible coupling with cosmic factors and lower atmosphere climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Didebulidze, Goderdzi; Todua, Maya

    2016-07-01

    atmospheric waves. Accordingly, the observed sensitivity of annual and semi-annual variability of cloud covering on cosmic factors could influence inter-annual/seasonal changes of the lower and upper atmosphere-ionosphere coupling processes. Acknowledgements: This work has been supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation Grant no. 31/81.

  2. North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II): Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Behrens, E.; Bentsen, M.; Bi, D.; Biastoch, A.; Bleck, R.; Boning, C. W.; Bozec, A.; Canuto, V.; Cassou, C.; Chassignet, E.; Coward, A.; Danilov, S.; Diansky, N.; Drange, H.; Farneti, R.; Fernandez, E.; Fogli, P. G.; Jung, T.; Forget, G.; Fujii, Y.; Griffies, S. M.; Gusev, A. A.; Heimbach, P.; Howard, A. M.; Ilicak, M.; Karspeck, A. R.; Kelley, M.; Large, W.; Leboissetier, A.; Lu, J.; Madec, G.; Marsland, S. J.; Masina, S.; Navarra, A.; Nurser, A. J. G.; Pirani, A.; Romanou, A.; Salas y Mélia, D.; Hunter Samuels, B. L.; Scheinert, M.; Sidorenko, D.; Sun, S.; Treguier, A. M.; Tsujino, H.; Uotila, P.; Valcke, S.; Voldoire, A.; Wang, Q.; Yashayaev, I.

    2016-02-01

    Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented.These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the CoordinatedOcean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlanticmeridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models.Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, suchas subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the LabradorSea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOCvariability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid-to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term(1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement isthen followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. Thissequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies.Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our resultssupport a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification isconnected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, drivenby NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in theirrepresentations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layerdepth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs iscaptured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability andtrends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influenceof ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite thesegeneral agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions

  3. Inter-annual variability in the thermal structure of an oceanic time series station off Ecuador (1990-2003) associated with El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcés-Vargas, José; Schneider, Wolfgang; Abarca del Río, Rodrigo; Martínez, Rodney; Zambrano, Eduardo

    2005-10-01

    Previously unpublished data (1990-2003) from a marine station located 20 km off the coast of Ecuador (Station La Libertad, 02°12'S, 080°55'W) are employed to investigate oceanic inter-annual variability in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, and its relation to the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. La Libertad is the only time series station between the Galapagos Islands and the South American coast, the region most affected by El Niño events (El Niño 2 region, 0-5°S, 90°W-80°W). Although configured and serviced differently, station La Libertad can be looked at as an eastern extension of the TAO/TRITON monitoring system, whose easternmost mooring is located at 95°W, 1550 km offshore. This study of El Niño's impact on the thermocline and its relationship to sea surface temperature revealed anomalies in the thermocline at station La Libertad some 2-4 months before their appearance at the sea surface. Inter-annual variability, namely quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillations, accounts for roughly 80% of the total variance in temperature anomalies observed in the water column at station La Libertad. The coincidence in both phase and amplitude of these inter-annual oscillations explains the strength of El Niño events in the water column off La Libertad. We further show that anomalies in heat content appear 8-9 weeks earlier at 140°W in the equatorial Pacific (6550 km away from the coast) than at the coast itself. The arrival of El Niño, which has important regional social consequences as well as those for local fisheries, could therefore be predicted in the sub-surface waters off Ecuador by using these anomalies as a complementary index. In addition, the speed of the eastward propagation of these El Niño-associated anomalies' suggests the possible participation of higher-order baroclinic mode Kelvin waves and associated interaction processes in the eastern Pacific, which should be further investigated.

  4. SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM POOL AND ITS RELATION TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵永平; 陈永利

    2001-01-01

    The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.

  5. Response of Riparian Vegetation in AUSTRALIA"S Largest River Basin to Inter and Intra-Annual Climate Variability and Flooding as Quantified with Landsat and Modis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broich, M.; Tulbure, M. G.

    2016-06-01

    Australia is a continent subject to high rainfall variability, which has major influences on runoff and vegetation dynamics. However, the resulting spatial-temporal pattern of flooding and its influence on riparian vegetation has not been quantified in a spatially explicit way. Here we focused on the floodplains of the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area that covers over 1M km2, as a case study. The MDB is the country's primary agricultural area with scarce water resources subject to competing demands and impacted by climate change and more recently by the Millennium Drought (1999-2009). Riparian vegetation in the MDB floodplain suffered extensive decline providing a dramatic degradation of riparian vegetation. We quantified the spatial-temporal impact of rainfall, temperature and flooding patters on vegetation dynamics at the subcontinental to local scales and across inter to intra-annual time scales based on three decades of Landsat (25k images), Bureau of Meteorology data and one decade of MODIS data. Vegetation response varied in space and time and with vegetation types, densities and location relative to areas frequently flooded. Vegetation degradation trends were observed over riparian forests and woodlands in areas where flooding regimes have changed to less frequent and smaller inundation extents. Conversely, herbaceous vegetation phenology followed primarily a `boom' and `bust' cycle, related to inter-annual rainfall variability. Spatial patters of vegetation degradation changed along the N-S rainfall gradient but flooding regimes and vegetation degradation patterns also varied at finer scale, highlighting the importance of a spatially explicit, internally consistent analysis and setting the stage for investigating further cross-scale relationships. Results are of interest for land and water management decisions. The approach developed here can be applied to other areas globally such as the Nile river basin and Okavango River delta in Africa or the

  6. Response of Riparian Vegetation in Australia's Largest River Basin to Inter and Intra-Annual Climate Variability and Flooding as Quantified with Landsat and MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broich, M.; Tulbure, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    Australia is a continent subject to high rainfall variability, which has major influences on runoff and vegetation dynamics. However, the resulting spatial-temporal pattern of flooding and its influence on riparian vegetation has not been quantified in a spatially explicit way. Here we focused on the floodplains of the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area that covers over 1M km^2, as a case study. The MDB is the country's primary agricultural area with scarce water resources subject to competing demands and impacted by climate change and more recently by the Millennium Drought (1999-2009). Riparian vegetation in the MDB floodplain suffered extensive decline providing a dramatic degradation of riparian vegetation. We quantified the spatial-temporal impact of rainfall, temperature and flooding patters on vegetation dynamics at the sub- continental to local scales and across inter to intra-annual time scales based on three decades of Landsat (25k images), Bureau of Meteorology data and one decade of MODIS data. Vegetation response varied in space and time and with vegetation types, densities and location relative to areas frequently flooded. Vegetation degradation trends were observed over riparian forests and woodlands in areas where flooding regimes have changed to less frequent and smaller inundation extents. Conversely, herbaceous vegetation phenology followed primarily a 'boom' and 'bust' cycle, related to inter-annual rainfall variability. Spatial patters of vegetation degradation changed along the N-S rainfall gradient but flooding regimes and vegetation degradation patterns also varied at finer scale, highlighting the importance of a spatially explicit, internally consistent analysis and setting the stage for investigating further cross-scale relationships. Results are of interest for land and water management decisions. The approach developed here can be applied to other areas globally such as the Nile river basin and Okavango River delta in Africa or

  7. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth in the southern Bay of Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ranith

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Argo float data supplemented with satellite measurements was used to study the seasonal and inter-annual variation in wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST and mixed layer depth (MLD of the southern Bay of Bengal from 2003 through 2010. Due to persistence of wind, clear sky and high insolation an increase in SST by about 2°C is evident during summer months (March-May and is followed by shallowed MLD with a minimum depth of 9.3 m during summer 2004. MLD reached the maximum depth during monsoon season (November-December and often extends to post monsoon (February owing to strong monsoon wind, cloudy sky and SST plummeted by 3°C. During the inter-monsoon period (August-October the MLD shallowed and maintained a depth of 20–30 m all through the study period. High wind accompanied with moderate temperature (SST due to the south west monsoon leads to decreased MLD with an average depth of 44 m in July. Analysis of wind speed, SST and MLD suggested that out of various meteorological parameters wind speed and induced mixing are highly influential in MLD formation. Reduced occurrence and amplitude of MLD deepening noticed in recent years can be attributed to the evident climate change scenarios. Large scale upper ocean variability observed from the present study has innumerable antagonistic consequences on the marine ecosystem which is evident from various events of seagrass burns and coral bleaching which have occurred in the last decade.

  8. Effects of model spatial resolution on ecohydrologic predictions and their sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyongho Son; Christina Tague; Carolyn Hunsaker

    2016-01-01

    The effect of fine-scale topographic variability on model estimates of ecohydrologic responses to climate variability in California’s Sierra Nevada watersheds has not been adequately quantified and may be important for supporting reliable climate-impact assessments. This study tested the effect of digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on model accuracy and estimates...

  9. North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

    2016-01-01

    Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which

  10. North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Howard, Armando M.; Kelley, Maxwell

    2015-01-01

    Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include

  11. Inter- and intra-annual variability of fluvial sediment transport in the proglacial river Riffler Bach (Weißseeferner, Ötztal Alps, Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baewert, Henning; Weber, Martin; Morche, David

    2015-04-01

    The hydrology of a proglacial river is strongly affected by glacier melting. Due to glacier retreat the effects of snow melt and rain storms will become more important in future decades. Additionally, the development of periglacial landscapes will play a more important role in the hydrology of proglacial rivers. The importance of paraglacial sediment sources in sediment budgets of glacier forefields is increasing, while the role of glacial erosion is declining. In two consecutive ablation seasons the fluvial sediment transport of the river Riffler Bach in the Kaunertal (Tyrol/Austria) was quantified. The catchment area of this station is 20 km² with an altitudinal range from 1929 m to 3518 m above msl. The "Weißseeferner" glacier (2.34 km² in 2012) is the greatest of the remaining glaciers. An automatic water sampler (AWS 2002) and a probe for water level were installed were installed at the outlet of the catchment. In order to calculate annual stage-discharge-relations, discharge (Q) was repeatedly measured with current meters. Concurrent to the discharge measurements bed load was collected using a portable Helley-Smith sampler. Bed load (BL) samples were weighted and sieved in the laboratory to gain annual bed load rating curves and grain size distributions. In 2012, 154 water samples were sampled during 7 periods and subsequently filtered to quantify suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). A Q-SSC-relation was calculated for every period due to the high variability in suspended sediment transport. In addition, the grain size distribution of the filtered material was determined by laser diffraction analysis. In 2013, the same procedure was performed for 232 water samples which were collected during 9 periods. Meteorological data were logged at the climate station "Weißsee", which is located in the centre of the study area. First results show a high variability of discharge and solid sediment transport both at the inter-annual as well as at the intra-annual

  12. Inter-annual climate variability and zooplankton: applying teleconnection indices to two deep subalpine lakes in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Manca

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investigating relation between meteo-climatic indices and between-year variation in Daphnia population density and phenology is crucial for e.g. predicting impact of climate change on lake ecosystem structure and functioning. We tested whether and how two teleconnection indices calculated for the winter period, namely the East Atlantic pattern (EADJF and the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMPDJF were correlated with Daphnia population growth in two Italian subalpine lakes, Garda and Maggiore. We investigated between-lake temporal coherence in: i water temperature within the water layer in which Daphnia is distributed; ii timing of Daphnia initial and spring maximum population density peak and iii the level of Daphnia spring maximum population density peak over an eleven-year period (1998-2008 of unchanged predation pressure by fish and invertebrates, and of common oligotrophy. Between-lake temporal coherence was high for an earlier start, an earlier, and lower, Daphnia population spring density peak after milder winters. Peak density level was coherently, positively correlated with soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP concentration. We hypothesized that Daphnia peak densities were related to atmospheric modes of variability in winter and to the degree of late winter mixing promoting replenishment of algal nutrients into upper water layers and phytoplankton growth, enhancing food availability and Daphnia fecundity, promoting Daphnia peak. 

  13. Inter-annual variability and potential for selectivity in the diets of deep-water Antarctic echinoderms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigham, B. D.; Galley, E. A.; Smith, C. R.; Tyler, P. A.

    2008-11-01

    The continental shelf of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a highly productive region but also unusually deep as a result of isostatic depression by the polar ice cap. The close coupling of surface processes with those of the benthos would be expected in such a seasonally variable environment; however, the cold, deep conditions of the WAP shelf may allow for the persistence of organic material in the sediments as a "food bank". Chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments were determined from the gut contents of seven species of echinoderm and from the surficial sediment on the bathyal continental shelf. Samples were collected as part of the FOODBANCS programme during successive cruises in austral spring (October 2000) and austral autumn (March 2001). Pigments were identified and quantified using reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). A lack of qualitative selectivity was observed among species, compared to that observed for deep-water assemblages at temperate latitudes, supporting the theory of a persistent "food bank". However, significant quantitative differences were observed among species and between years and sampling location on the shelf. Species differences were marked between those we classified as "true" deposit feeders and those species whose diet also may be supplemented by scavenging and/or grazing.

  14. The inter-annual variability of the Yellow Sea Warm Current surface axis and its influencing factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Dehai; BAO Xianwen; WANG Xiaohua; XU Lingling; LIN Xiaopei; WU Dexing

    2009-01-01

    Based on the Pathfinder sea surface temperature (PFSST), the surface axis and its pattern of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) are discussed. A structure of double-warm-tongue is found in February and it varies in different years. Two indexes are calculated to represent the westward shift (WSI) and northward extension (NEI) of the warm water in the Yellow Sea (YS). Wavelet analysis illustrates that the WSI and NEI have prominent periods of 3-6 years and 3-4 years, respectively. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition is applied to the winter wind stress curl and the Kuroshio Current (KC) transport, which are believed to play important roles in forcing the variability of the YSWC surface axis. Statistics shows that the WSI is significantly related with the second EOF mode of the wind stress curl in February, which may force the YSWC surface axis moving westward and maintaining the double warm tongues because of its opposite curl in the YSWC domain. The first EOF mode of wind stress curl in January is propitious for inducing the warm tongue in the YS to advance more northward. Hence, the wind stress curls both in January and in February could force variations of the YSWC surface axis; however, the effect of the January wind stress curl is relatively weaker than that of the February. The relationship between the NEI and the KC transport is remarkable, and it seems that the stronger KC supplies more power to push the YSWC northward against the southward wind.

  15. Inter-annual variability in flowering of orchids: lessons learned from 8 years of monitoring in a Mediterranean region of France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Vogt-Schilb

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available It is important to evaluate the loss of biodiversity caused by global changes. In the case of orchids, it is still unclear how long the monitoring duration should be chosen in order to achieve a good compromise between the reliability of the orchid dynamics recorded and sampling duration (e.g. years of monitoring. This study aims to propose a method of monitoring orchids. Using a large database, we investigated the inter-annual variability in flowering of orchids in a French Mediterranean region. The database includes an 8-year-long study (2006–2013 of 47 species at 26 locations in three different types of habitats. The number of individual plants that flowered per species varied significantly between years, but not the number of species. Depending on habitat, two to four years were needed to observe the total number of species per location. Therefore, in Mediterranean regions a one-year-study seems to be insufficient to produce reliable results.

  16. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

    2016-02-01

    Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

  17. Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvam, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference

  18. Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvam, A. M.

    2016-09-01

    Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference

  19. The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2016-05-01

    Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

  20. Secular change and inter-annual variability of the Gulf Stream position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisagni, James J.; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra

    2017-07-01

    The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) ;conveyer belt; that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52°W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 55°, 60°, and 65°W show a significant southward (negative) secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to a small but insignificant southward trend at 70°W. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer (200 m) LC transport near 52°W is positive. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52°W along the southwestern Grand Banks are significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55°W at a lag of +1-year, with positive (negative) LC transport residuals corresponding to southward (northward) GSNW positions one year later. The Taylor-Stephens index (TSI) computed from the first principal component of the GSNW position from 79° to 65°W shows a similar relationship with a more distal LC index computed along altimeter ground track 250 located north of the Grand Banks across Hamilton Bank in the western Labrador Sea. Increased (decreased) sea height differences along ground track 250 are significantly correlated with a more southward (northward) TSI two years later (lag of +2-years). Spectral analysis of IAV reveals corresponding spectral peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (70°-55°W) and LC transport near 52°W for the 1993-2013 period

  1. 南海盐度锋的年际变化特征分析%Inter-annual variability of salinity front in the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵宝宏; 刘宇迪; 付邦雨

    2012-01-01

    为了探究南海表层5m盐度锋的年际变化特征,应用50年(1958-2007年)的SODA月平均资料,采用均方差和经验正交函数进行研究.结果表明,盐度锋年际变化显著的区域集中在北部湾、海南岛以东、南海北部、吕宋海峡、东马来西亚西北部和越南最南端;第一模态和第二模态时间系数变化趋势均表明南海盐度锋强度在逐渐减小;前者呈单极子型空间分布,后者空间分布型则为偶极子型.第一模态时间系数功率谱分析表明该模态存在3-5年和7-16年的周期,Morlet小波分析显示1965-2000年该模态主要存在4年、9年和12年左右的周期.第一模态确立的3个负位相中心区域(海南岛以东、吕宋海峡和越南最南端)的均值变化趋势一致,强度都在逐渐增大,具有同位相变化特征;第二模态时间系数功率谱分析表明该模态存在3年、5年和8-12年的周期.Morlet小波分析表明1962-2001年期间该模态存在3年、5年和9-12年的周期.第二模态找出的两个正负位相中心分别在东马来西亚西北部和南海北部,前者盐度锋强度在逐渐减小,而后者强度却在持续增大,强度的年际变化呈现反位相变化特征.%Based on the 50 years SODA monthly data (1958-2007 years), the standard deviation and empirical orthogonal function studies is used to investigate inter-annual variation of surface salinity front under 5 meters in the South China Sea. The results show that the area of the remarkable inter-annual variability of the salinity front concentrates in the northern Gulf, east of Hainan Island & the northern South China Sea, the Luzon Strait, north-west of East Malaysia and northern South China Sea. The time series trends of the first mode and the sec-ond mode show that the intensity of salinity front is both decreasing. Spatial distribution type of the former is uni-polar and the latter is dipole. The power spectral analysis of the first mode time

  2. Inter-annual variability of surface ozone at coastal (Dumont d'Urville, 2004-2014) and inland (Concordia, 2007-2014) sites in East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legrand, Michel; Preunkert, Susanne; Savarino, Joël; Frey, Markus M.; Kukui, Alexandre; Helmig, Detlev; Jourdain, Bruno; Jones, Anna E.; Weller, Rolf; Brough, Neil; Gallée, Hubert

    2016-07-01

    Surface ozone has been measured since 2004 at the coastal East Antarctic site of Dumont d'Urville (DDU), and since 2007 at the Concordia station located on the high East Antarctic plateau. This paper discusses long-term changes, seasonal and diurnal cycles, as well as inter-annual summer variability observed at these two East Antarctic sites. At Concordia, near-surface ozone data were complemented by balloon soundings and compared to similar measurements done at the South Pole. The DDU record is compared to those obtained at the coastal site of Syowa, also located in East Antarctica, as well as the coastal sites of Neumayer and Halley, both located on the coast of the Weddell Sea in West Antarctica. Surface ozone mixing ratios exhibit very similar seasonal cycles at Concordia and the South Pole. However, in summer the diurnal cycle of ozone is different at the two sites with a drop of ozone in the afternoon at Concordia but not at the South Pole. The vertical distribution of ozone above the snow surface also differs. When present, the ozone-rich layer located near the ground is better mixed and deeper at Concordia (up to 400 m) than at the South Pole during sunlight hours. These differences are related to different solar radiation and wind regimes encountered at these two inland sites. DDU appears to be the coastal site where the impact of the late winter/spring bromine chemistry is the weakest, but where the impact of elevated ozone levels caused by NOx snow emissions from the high Antarctic plateau is the highest. The highest impact of the bromine chemistry is seen at Halley and Neumayer, and to a lesser extent at Syowa. These three sites are only weakly impacted by the NOx chemistry and the net ozone production occurring on the high Antarctic plateau. The differences in late winter/spring are attributed to the abundance of sea ice offshore from the sites, whereas those in summer are related to the topography of East Antarctica that promotes the katabatic flow

  3. Inter-annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Semi-arid Oak-savanna Ecosystem: Measured and Modeled Buffering to Precipitation Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raz-Yaseef, N.; Sonnentag, O.; Kobayashi, H.; Baldocchi, D. D.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation (P) is the primary control on vegetation dynamics and productivity, implying that climate induced disturbances in frequency and timing of P are intimately coupled with fluxes of carbon, water and energy. Future climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall events as well as droughts, suggesting linked vegetation changes to an unknown extent. Semi-arid climates experience large inter-annual variability (IAV) in P, creating natural conditions adequate to study how year-to-year changes in P affect atmosphere-biosphere fluxes. We used a 10-year flux database collected at a semi-arid savanna site in order to: (1) define IAV in P by means of frequency and timing; (2) investigate how changes in P affect the ecohydrology of the forest and its partitioning into the main vapor fluxes, and (3) evaluate model capability to predict IAV of carbon and water fluxes above and below the canopy. This is based on the perception that the capability of process-oriented models to construct the deviation, and not the average, is important in order to correctly predict ecosystem sensitivity to climate change. Our research site was a low density and low LAI (0.8) semi-arid (P=523±180 mm yr-1) savanna site, combined of oaks and grass, and located at Tonzi ranch, California. Measurements of carbon and water fluxes above and below the tree canopy using eddy covariance and supplementary measurements have been made since 2001. Measured fluxes were compared to modeled based on two bio-meteorological process-oriented ecosystem models: BEPS and 3D-CAONAK. Our results show that IAV in P was large, and standard deviation (STD) was 38% of the average. Accordingly, the wet soil period (measured volumetric water content > 8%) varied between 156 days in dry years to 301 days in wet years. IAV of the vapor fluxes were lower than that of P (STD was 17% for the trees and 23% for the floor components), suggesting on ecosystem buffering to changes in P. The timing of grass green up

  4. Inter-annual variability of air mass and acidified pollutants transboundary exchange in the north-eastern part of the EANET region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

    2016-04-01

    ]. This dataset provides comprehensive monthly statistics on the wind meteorological regime at the stations of interest in a given range of altitudes. Based on long-term source observational data, the dataset is assumed being representative up to date, which allowed us to estimate monthly pollutant fluxes for the years 2006-2008 over segments of the Russian border and its whole [4]. In the current phase of our study, we calculate the inter-annual variations in the transboundary pollutant fluxes for 2000-2012 using longer-term EANET data and transient changes in air mass fluxes derived from the meteorological wind fields from ERA INTERIM re-analysis [5]. We gauge similar average air transport terms and dynamics from the statistical and reanalysis data, which bolsters our earlier findings. The reanalysis data, being naturally more variable, convolutes the variations in net air fluxes and pollutant concentrations into several episodes we emphasise, in addition to the integral pollutant transfer terms we estimate. At last, we discuss on the possibility of climate change effect on the flux strength and dynamics together with regional air quality tendencies in North-East Asia countries. References: Izrael, Yu.A., et al.: Monitoring of the Transboundary Air Pollution Transport. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 303 p., 187 (in Russian). Akimoto H., et al.: Periodic Report of the State of Acid Deposition in East Asia. Part I: Regional Assessment. EANET-UNEP/RRC.AP-ADORC, 258 p., 2006. Brukhan, F.F.: Aeroclimatic Characteristics of the Mean Winds over USSR (ed. Ignatjushina E.N.). Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, 54 p., 1984 (in Russian). Gromov S.A., et al.: First-order evaluation of transboundary pollution fluxes in areas of EANET stations in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. EANET Science Bulletin, vol. 3, pp. 195-203, 2013. Dee, D. P., et al.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi: 10

  5. Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Pavia, Edgar G.; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Graef, Federico

    2015-07-01

    An ensemble of future climate projections performed with the regional climate model RegCM4 is used to assess changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America (SMECAM). Two different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 are used to provide boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations. This results in four regional climate projections extending from 1970 to 2100 for the greenhouse gas representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. The precipitation variability over the SMECAM region and its dependence on the gradient between Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are verified by reproducing SST anomaly patterns during wettest and driest years similar to those seen in observational datasets. RegCM4 does a comparably better job than the driving GCMs. This strong relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies does not appear to change substantially under future climate conditions. For the rainy season, June to September, we find a future change in inter-annual variability of precipitation towards a much greater occurrence of very dry seasons over the SMECAM region, with this change being more pronounced in the regional than in the global model projections. A greater warming of the Tropical Northeastern Pacific (TNP) compared to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which causes stronger wind fluxes from the TNA to the TNP through the Caribbean Low Level Jet, is identified as the main process responsible for these drier conditions.

  6. Intra- and inter-annual uranium concentration variability in a Belizean stalagmite controlled by prior aragonite precipitation: A new tool for reconstructing hydro-climate using aragonitic speleothems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Robert A.; Baldini, James U. L.; Brett, Marianne J.; Taylor, Jessica; Ridley, Harriet E.; Ottley, Chris J.; Prufer, Keith M.; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Scholz, Denis; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2016-10-01

    Aragonitic speleothems are increasingly utilised as palaeoclimate archives due to their amenability to high precision U-Th dating. Proxy records from fast-growing aragonitic stalagmites, precisely dated to annual timescales, can allow investigation of climatic events occurring on annual or even sub-annual timescales with minimal chronological uncertainty. However, the behaviour of many trace elements, such as uranium, in aragonitic speleothems has not thus far been as well constrained as in calcitic speleothems. Here, we use uranium concentration shifts measured across primary calcite-to-aragonite mineralogical transitions in speleothems to calculate the distribution coefficient of uranium in aragonitic speleothems (derived DU = 3.74 ± 1.13). Because our calculated DU is considerably above 1 increased prior aragonite precipitation due to increased karst water residence time should strongly control stalagmite aragonite U/Ca values. Consequently, uranium concentrations in aragonitic speleothems should act as excellent proxies for effective rainfall. We test this using a high-resolution ICP-MS derived trace element dataset from a Belizean stalagmite. YOK-G is an aragonitic stalagmite from Yok Balum cave in Belize with an extremely robust monthly-resolved chronology built using annual δ13C cycles. We interpret seasonal U/Ca variations in YOK-G as reflecting changes in the amount and seasonality of prior aragonite precipitation driven by variable rainfall amounts. The U/Ca record strongly suggests that modern drying has occurred in Belize, and that this drying was primarily caused by a reduction in wet season rainfall. This is consistent with published stable isotope data from YOK-G also very strongly suggesting modern rainfall reductions, previously interpreted as the result of southward ITCZ displacement. Our results strongly suggest that U/Ca values in aragonitic speleothems are excellent proxies for rainfall variability. This new tool, combined with the

  7. Inter-annual variability in apparent relative production, survival, and growth of juvenile Lost River and shortnose suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2001–15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdick, Summer M.; Martin, Barbara A.

    2017-06-15

    Executive SummaryPopulations of the once abundant Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) of the Upper Klamath Basin, decreased so substantially throughout the 20th century that they were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1988. Major landscape alterations, deterioration of water quality, and competition with and predation by exotic species are listed as primary causes of the decreases in populations. Upper Klamath Lake populations are decreasing because fish lost due to adult mortality, which is relatively low for adult Lost River suckers and variable for adult shortnose suckers, are not replaced by new young adult suckers recruiting into known adult spawning aggregations. Catch-at-age and size data indicate that most adult suckers presently in Upper Klamath Lake spawning populations were hatched around 1991. While, a lack of egg production and emigration of young fish (especially larvae) may contribute, catch-at-length and age data indicate high mortality during the first summer or winter of life may be the primary limitation to the recruitment of young adults. The causes of juvenile sucker mortality are unknown.We compiled and analyzed catch, length, age, and species data on juvenile suckers from Upper Klamath Lake from eight prior studies conducted from 2001 to 2015 to examine annual variation in apparent production, survival, and growth of young suckers. We used a combination of qualitative assessments, general linear models, and linear regression to make inferences about annual differences in juvenile sucker dynamics. The intent of this exercise is to provide information that can be compared to annual variability in environmental conditions with the hopes of understanding what drives juvenile sucker population dynamics.Age-0 Lost River suckers generally grew faster than age-0 shortnose suckers, but the difference in growth rates between the two species varied among years. This unsynchronized annual variation in

  8. Continuous 25-yr aerosol records at coastal Antarctica - I: inter-annual variability of ionic compounds and links to climate indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, Rolf; Koenig-Langlo, Gert (Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)), e-mail: Rolf.Weller@awi.de; Wagenbach, Dietmar; Elsaesser, Christoph (Institut fur Umweltphysik, Univ. of Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany)); Legrand, Michel (Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, St Martin d' Heres (France)); Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan (Institut fur Meereskunde, Univ. of Hamburg, Hamburg (Germany))

    2011-11-15

    The aerosol climatology at the coastal Antarctic Neumayer Station (NM) was investigated based on continuous, 25-yr long observations of biogenic sulphur components (methanesulfonate and non-sea salt sulphate), sea salt and nitrate. Although significant long-term trends could only be detected for nitrate (-3.6 +- 2.5% per year between 1983 and 1993 and +4.0 +- 3.2% per year from 1993-2007), non-harmonic periodicities between 2 and 5 yr were typical for all species. Dedicated time series analyses revealed that relations to sea ice extent and various circulation indices are weak at best or not significant. In particular, no consistent link between sea ice extent and sea salt loadings was evident suggesting only a rather local relevance of the NM sea salt record. Nevertheless, a higher Southern Annular Mode index tended to entail a lower biogenic sulphur signal. In examining the spatial uniformity of the NM findings we contrasted them to respective 17 yr records from the coastal Dumont d'Urville Station. We found similar long-term trends for nitrate, indicating an Antarctic-wide but not identifiable atmospheric signal, although any significant impact of solar activity or pollution could be ruled out. No inter-site variability on the multiannual scale was evident for the other ionic compounds

  9. Inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the Biobío River, Central Chile: an analysis base on a decadal database along with 1-D reactive transport modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yévenes

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rivers may act as important sinks (filters or sources for inorganic nutrients between the land and the sea, depending on the biogeochemical processes and nutrient inputs along the river. This study examines the inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN seasonal (wet–dry cycle for the Biobío River, one of the largest and most industrialized rivers of Central Chile (36°45'–38°49' S and 71°00'–73°20' W. Long-term water flow (1990–2012 and water quality datasets (2004–2012 were used along with a one-dimensional reactive transport ecosystem model to evaluate the effects of water flow and N inputs on seasonal pattern of DIN. From 2004 to 2012, annual average nitrate levels significantly increased from 1.73 ± 2.17 μmol L−1 (upstream of the river to 18.4 ± 12.7 μmol L−1 (in the river mouth; while the annual average oxygen concentration decreased from 348 ± 22 to 278 ± 42 μmol L−1 between upstream and downstream, indicating an additional oxygen consumption. Variability in the mid-section of the river (station BB8 was identified as a major influence on the inter-annual variability and appeared to be the site of a major anthropogenic disturbance. However, there was also an influence of climate on riverine DIN concentrations; high DIN production occurred during wet years, whereas high consumption proceeded during dry years. Extremely reduced river flow and drought during summer also strongly affected the annual DIN concentration, reducing the DIN production. Additionally, summer storm events during drought periods appeared to cause significant runoff resulting in nitrate inputs to the river. The total DIN input reaching the river mouth was 0.159 Gmol yr−1, implying that internal production exceeds consumption processes, and identifying nitrification as one of the predominant processes occurring in the estuary. In the following, the impact on the river of DIN increases as a nutrient source, as well as climate

  10. The annual mean sketches and climatological variability of the volume and heat transports through the inter-basin passages:A study based on 1 400-year spin up of MOM4p1

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Yaohua; WEI Zexun; WANG Yonggang; GUAN Yuping; WANG Xinyi

    2014-01-01

    The annual mean volume and heat transport sketches through the inter-basin passages and transoceanic sections have been constructed based on 1 400-year spin up results of the MOM4p1. The spin up starts from a state of rest, driven by the monthly climatological mean force from the NOAA World Ocean Atlas (1994). The volume transport sketch reveals the northward transport throughout the Pacific and southward trans-port at all latitudes in the Atlantic. The annual mean strength of the Pacific-Arctic-Atlantic through flow is 0.63×106 m3/s in the Bering Strait. The majority of the northward volume transport in the southern Pacific turns into the Indonesian through flow (ITF) and joins the Indian Ocean equatorial current, which subse-quently flows out southward from the Mozambique Channel, with its majority superimposed on the Ant-arctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). This anti-cyclonic circulation around Australia has a strength of 11×106 m3/s according to the model-produced result. The atmospheric fresh water transport, known as P-E+R (pre-cipitation minus evaporation plus runoff ), constructs a complement to the horizontal volume transport of the ocean. The annual mean heat transport sketch exhibits a northward heat transport in the Atlantic and poleward heat transport in the global ocean. The surface heat flux acts as a complement to the horizontal heat transport of the ocean. The climatological volume transports describe the most important features through the inter-basin passages and in the associated basins, including:the positive P-E+R in the Arctic substantially strengthening the East Greenland Current in summer;semiannual variability of the volume transport in the Drake Passage and the southern Atlantic-Indian Ocean passage;and annual transport vari-ability of the ITF intensifying in the boreal summer. The climatological heat transports show heat storage in July and heat deficit in January in the Arctic;heat storage in January and heat deficit in July in the

  11. Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulain, V.; Bekki, S.; Marchand, M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Khodri, M.; Lefèvre, F.; Dhomse, S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Toumi, R.; De Maziere, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Pazmino, A.; Goutail, F.; Plummer, D.; Rozanov, E.; Mancini, E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Austin, J.

    2016-07-01

    The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings

  12. The inter-annual variability in the volume transport through Bering Strait and its related factors%白令海峡夏季流量的年际变化及其成因

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张洋; 苏洁

    2012-01-01

    Bering Strait is the only channel connecting the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. The Pacific water through the strait is mainly driven by the meridional sea level slop and its inter-annual variation has great influence on the Arctic Ocean. In this study SODA data is applied to the calculation of the monthly mean volume transport through Bering Strait. The factors related to the inter-annual variability of summer volume transport are discussed. The results show that the SSH in the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, the Chukchi Sea, south of the Beaufort Sea is negatively correlated to the volume transport of Bering Strait in inter-annual scale while the situation is opposite in the eastern shelf of Bering Sea. After analyzing the correlation of the volume flux with the Ekman transport, pumping rate, upper layer salinity, temperature and density, the paper find that the Ekman transport anomaly should be responsible for the relationship between the sea surface height and the volume flux of Bering Strait. When the SLP is positive anomaly o-ver central part of the Arctic Ocean and negative anomaly over Bering Sea basin, the volume transport through Bering Strait will be enlarged. Such SLP anomaly would explain the relationship between the Bering Strait volume transport and the Ekman transport, pumping rate and upper layer water properties to some extend. The paper reveals that the summer SLP's inter-annual variation can change SSH via Ekman transport and finally dominant the volume transport through Bering Strait.%白令海峡是连接太平洋和北冰洋的唯一通道,穿过海峡的海水体积通量在年际尺度上的变化主要取决于海峡南北两侧的海面高度差,白令海峡的入流对北冰洋海洋过程有重要的意义.利用SODA资料计算夏季白令海峡海水体积通量,对其年际变化及成因进行分析.结果表明夏季白令海峡的体积通量主要是正压地转的;当体积通量为正距平时,楚科奇海、东西

  13. The role of meltwater variability in modulating diurnal to inter-annual ice-sheet flow: New insights from a ~decade of high-temporal resolution GPS observations on the western Greenland margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, L. A.; Behn, M. D.; Das, S. B.; Joughin, I.; van den Broeke, M.; Herring, T.; McGuire, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    Meltwater-driven processes across the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet are controlled by seasonal fluxes as well as shorter-term variability in surface melt. Few high-temporal resolution GPS observations of ice-sheet flow extend for longer than a couple years, limiting multiyear analyses of seasonal variability in ice-sheet flow. Using a small GPS network installed at ~1000-m above sea level (m a.s.l.) operating from 2006-2014, and supplemented with a larger array of 20 GPS stations installed from 2011­-2014, we observe nine years of ice-sheet surface motion on the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The GPS array spans a horizontal distance of 30 km across an elevation range of 700-1250 m a.s.l., and captures the ice-sheet's velocity response to the seasonal melt cycle. By combining the GPS array measurements with temperature, precipitation, and runoff estimates from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), we examine the relationship between ice-sheet flow and surface melt variability both at the seasonal scale (i.e., during melt onset, summer melt season and melt cessation) as well as during transient high melt periods such as precipitation events, anomalously high melt episodes, and supraglacial lake drainages. We observe varying surface motion following early versus late summer extended melt events, with early-season extended melt events inducing longer sustained speed-up than late summer events. We also examine differences in the timing of melt onset and magnitude, comparing the anomalously high runoff observed across the ice sheet in 2010 and 2012 against the average to low runoff observed in the years comprising the remainder of the record. This nearly decadal record improves our understanding of the role of meltwater variability in modulating ice-sheet flow on diurnal to inter-annual timescales.

  14. Evaluation of Inter-annual Variability and Trends of Cloud Liquid Water Path in Climate Models Using A Multi-decadal Record of Passive Microwave Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manaster, Andrew

    Long term satellite records of cloud changes have only been available for the past several decades and have just recently been used to diagnose cloud-climate feedbacks. However, due to issues with satellite drift, calibration, and other artifacts, the validity of these cloud changes has been called into question. It is therefore pertinent that we look for other observational datasets that can help to diagnose changes in variables relevant to cloud-radiation feedbacks. One such dataset is the Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP), which blends cloud liquid water path (LWP) observations from 12 different passive microwave sensors over the past 27 years. In this study, observed LWP trends from the MAC-LWP dataset are compared to LWP trends from 16 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) in order to assess how well the models capture these trends and thus related radiative forcing variables (e.g., cloud radiative forcing). (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  15. Assessment of RegCM4 simulated inter-annual variability and daily-scale statistics of temperature and precipitation over Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Graef, Federico; Pavia, Edgar G.

    2014-02-01

    The skill of a regional climate model (RegCM4) in capturing the mean patterns, interannual variability and extreme statistics of daily-scale temperature and precipitation events over Mexico is assessed through a comparison of observations and a 27-year long simulation driven by reanalyses of observations covering the Central America CORDEX domain. The analysis also includes the simulation of tropical cyclones. It is found that RegCM4 reproduces adequately the mean spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and temperature, along with the associated interannual variability characteristics. The main model bias is an overestimation of precipitation in mountainous regions. The 5 and 95 percentiles of daily temperature, as well as the maximum dry spell length are realistically simulated. The simulated distribution of precipitation events as well as the 95 percentile of precipitation shows a wet bias in topographically complex regions. Based on a simple detection method, the model produces realistic tropical cyclone distributions even at its relatively coarse resolution (dx = 50 km), although the number of cyclone days is underestimated over the Pacific and somewhat overestimated over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. Overall, it is assessed that the performance of RegCM4 over Mexico is of sufficient quality to study not only mean precipitation and temperature patterns, but also higher order climate statistics.

  16. Seasonal and inter-annual variability in 13C composition of ecosystem carbon fluxes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torn, M.S.; Biraud, S.; Still, C.J.; Riley, W.J.; Berry, J.A.

    2010-09-22

    The {delta}{sup 13}C signature of terrestrial carbon fluxes ({delta}{sub bio}) provides an important constraint for inverse models of CO{sub 2} sources and sinks, insight into vegetation physiology, C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} vegetation productivity, and ecosystem carbon residence times. From 2002-2009, we measured atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and {delta}{sup 13}C-CO{sub 2} at four heights (2 to 60 m) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) and computed {delta}{sub bio} weekly. This region has a fine-scale mix of crops (primarily C{sub 3} winter wheat) and C{sub 4} pasture grasses. {delta}{sub bio} had a large and consistent seasonal cycle of 6-8{per_thousand}. Ensemble monthly mean {delta}{sub bio} ranged from -25.8 {+-} 0.4{per_thousand} ({+-}SE) in March to -20.1 {+-} 0.4{per_thousand} in July. Thus, C{sub 3} vegetation contributed about 80% of ecosystem fluxes in winter-spring and 50% in summer-fall. In contrast, prairie-soil {delta}{sub 13}C values were about -15{per_thousand}, indicating that historically the region was dominated by C{sub 4} vegetation and had more positive {delta}{sub bio} values. Based on a land-surface model, isofluxes ({delta}{sub bio} x NEE) in this region have large seasonal amplitude because {delta}{sub bio} and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) covary. Interannual variability in isoflux was driven by variability in NEE. The large seasonal amplitude in {delta}{sub bio} and isoflux imply that carbon inverse analyses require accurate estimates of land cover and temporally resolved {sup 13}CO{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} fluxes.

  17. Effect of climate, intra and inter-annual variability, on nutrients emission (C,N, P) in stream water: lessons from an agricultural long term observatory of the temperate zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Remi, Dupas; Patrick, Durand; Ophélie, Fovet; Gerard, Gruau; Anne, Jaffrezic; Guillaume, Humbert; Philippe, Merot; Gu, Sen

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture greatly contributes to modify C, N and P cycles, particularly in animal breeding regions due to high inputs. Climatic conditions, intra and inter-annual variabilities, modify nutrient stream water emissions, acting in time on transfer and transformation, accumulation and mobilization processes, connecting and disconnecting in time different compartments (soil, riparian areas, groundwater). In agricultural catchments, nutrient perturbations are dominated by agricultural land use, and decoupling human activities and climate effects is far from easy. Climate change generally appears as a secondary driver compared to land use. If studied, generally only one nutrient is considered. Only long term, high frequency and multiple element data series can decouple these two drivers. The Kervidy-Naizin watershed belongs to the AgrHyS environmental research observatory (http://www6.inra.fr/ore_agrhys_eng), itself included in RBV (French catchment network of the CZO). On this catchment, 6 years of daily data on DOC, NO3, SRP, TP concentrations allow us to analyze the effect of seasonal and inter-annual climatic variabilities on water quality (C, N, P). Different papers have been published on the effect of climate on nitrate (Molenat et al, 2008), SRP and TP (Dupas et al, 2015) and DOC (Humbert et al, 2015). We will present first results comparing the effect of climate on these three major solute forms of C, N and P. While C and P dynamics are very close and controlled by fluctuation of water table downslope, i.e. in riparian areas, mobilizing C and P in time, nitrate dynamics is controlled by GW dynamics upslope acting as the major N reservoir. As example, the dryness conditions in summer appears a key factor of the C and P emissions in autumn. All the three solute forms interact when anoxic conditions are observed in riparian zones. These basic processes explain how climatic variability can influence and explain interactions between C, N and P emissions in stream

  18. Productivity and phenological responses of natural vegetation to present and future inter-annual climate variability across semi-arid river basins in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glade, Francisco E; Miranda, Marcelo D; Meza, Francisco J; van Leeuwen, Willem J D

    2016-12-01

    Time series of vegetation indices and remotely sensed phenological data offer insights about the patterns in vegetation dynamics. Both are useful sources of information for analyzing and monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental variations caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In the semi-arid region of Chile, climate variability and recent severe droughts in addition to land-use changes pose threats to the stability of local ecosystems. Normalized difference vegetation index time series (2000-2013) data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was processed to monitor the trends and patterns of vegetation productivity and phenology observed over the last decade. An analysis of the relationship between (i) vegetation productivity and (ii) precipitation and temperature data for representative natural land-use cover classes was made. Using these data and ground measurements, productivity estimates were projected for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at two altitudinal levels. Results showed negative trends of vegetation productivity below 2000 m a.s.l. and positive trends for higher elevations. Phenology analysis suggested that mountainous ecosystems were starting their growing period earlier in the season, coinciding with a decreased productivity peak during the growing season. The coastal shrubland/grassland land cover class had a significant positive relation with rainfall and a significant negative relation with temperature, suggesting that these ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. Future productivity projections indicate that under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario, productivity could decline by 12% in the period of 2060-2100, leading to a severe vegetation degradation at lower altitudes and in drier areas.

  19. Inter-annual variability of aerosol optical depth over the tropical Atlantic Ocean based on MODIS-Aqua observations over the period 2002-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkikas, Antonis; Hatzianastassiou, Nikolaos

    2013-04-01

    The tropical Atlantic Ocean is affected by dust and biomass burning aerosol loads transported from the western parts of the Saharan desert and the sub-Sahel regions, respectively. The spatial and temporal patterns of this transport are determined by the aerosol emission rates, their deposition (wet and dry), by the latitudinal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the prevailing wind fields. More specifically, in summer, Saharan dust aerosols are transported towards the Atlantic Ocean, even reaching the Gulf of Mexico, while in winter the Atlantic Ocean transport takes place in more southern latitudes, near the equator, sometimes reaching the northern parts of South America. In the later case, dust is mixed with biomass burning aerosols originating from agricultural activities in the sub-Sahel, associated with prevailing north-easterly airflow (Harmattan winds). Satellite observations are the appropriate tool for describing this African aerosol export, which is important to atmospheric, oceanic and climate processes, offering the advantage of complete spatial coverage. In the present study, we use satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth at 550nm (AOD550nm), on a daily and monthly basis, derived from MODIS-Aqua platform, at 1ox1o spatial resolution (Level 3), for the period 2002-2012. The primary objective is to determine the pixel-level and regional mean anomalies of AOD550nm over the entire study period. The regime of the anomalies of African export is interpreted in relation to the aerosol source areas, precipitation, wind patterns and temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). In order to ensure availability of AOD over the Sahara desert, MODIS-Aqua Deep Blue products are also used. As for precipitation, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data at 2.5ox2.5o are used. The wind fields are taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Apart from the regime of African aerosol export

  20. Inter-Annual Variability of Burned Area in Brazil Based on a Synergistic use of Information Derived from MODIS and Landsat-TM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libonati, R.; Dacamara, C. C.; Setzer, A. W.; Morelli, F.

    2014-12-01

    A procedure is presented that allows using information from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to improve the quality of monthly burned area estimates over Brazil. The method integrates MODIS derived information from two sources; the NASA MCD64A1 Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area Product and INPE's Monthly Burned Area MODIS product (AQM-MODIS). The latter product relies on an algorithm that was specifically designed for ecosystems in Brazil, taking advantage of the ability of MIR reflectances to discriminate burned areas. Information from both MODIS products is incorporated by means of a linear regression model where an optimal estimate of the burned area is obtained as a linear combination of burned area estimates from MCD64A1 and AQM-MODIS. The linear regression model is calibrated using as optimal estimates values of burned area derived from Landsat TM during 2005 and 2006 over Jalapão, a region of Cerrado covering an area of 187 x 187 km2. Obtained values of coefficients for MCD64A1 and AQM-MODIS were 0.51 and 0.35, respectively and the root mean square error was 7.6 km2. Robustness of the model was checked by calibrating the model separately for 2005 and 2006 and cross-validating with 2006 and 2005; coefficients for 2005 (2006) were 0.46 (0.54) for MCD64A1 and 0.35 (0.35) for AQM-MODIS and the corresponding root mean square errors for 2006 (2005) were 7.8 (7.4) km2. The linear model was then applied to Brazil as well as to the six Brazilian main biomes, namely Cerrado, Amazônia, Caatinga, Pantanal, Mata Atlântica and Pampa. As to be expected the interannual variability based on the proposed synergistic use of MCD64A1, AQM-MODIS and Landsat Tm data for the period 2005-2010 presents marked differences with the corresponding amounts derived from MCD64A1 alone. For instance during the considered period, values (in 103 km2) from the proposed approach (from MCD64A1) are 399 (142), 232 (62), 559 (259), 274 (73), 219 (31) and 415

  1. Inter-Seasonal and Annual Co-Variation of Smallholder Production Portfolios, Volumes and Incomes with Rainfall and Flood Levels in the Amazon Estuary: Implications for Building Livelihood Resilience to Increasing Variability of Hydro-Climatic Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, N. D.; Fernandes, K.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Brondizio, E. S.; Almeida, O.; Rivero, S.; Rabelo, F. R.; Dou, Y.; Deadman, P.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper we investigate inter-seasonal and annual co-variations of rainfall and flood levels with Caboclo production portfolios, and proportions of it they sell and consume, in the Amazon Estuary from August 2012 to August 2014. Caboclos of the estuary maintain a diverse and flexible land-use portfolio, with a shift in dominant use from agriculture to agroforestry and forestry since WWII (Vogt et al., 2014). The current landscape is configured for acai, shrimp and fish production. In the last decade the frequency of wet seasons with anomalous flood levels and duration has increased primarily from changes in rainfall and discharge from upstream basins. Local rainfall, though with less influence on extreme estuarine flood levels, is reported to be more sporadic and intense in wet season and variable in both wet and dry seasons, for yet unknown reasons. The current production portfolio and its flexibility are felt to build resilience to these increases in hydro-climatic variability and extreme events. What is less understood, for time and costliness of daily measures at household levels, is how variations in flood and rainfall levels affect shifts in the current production portfolio of estuarine Caboclos, and the proportions of it they sell and consume. This is needed to identify what local hydro-climatic thresholds are extreme for current livelihoods, that is, that most adversely affect food security and income levels. It is also needed identify the large-scale forcings driving those extreme conditions to build forecasts for when they will occur. Here we present results of production, rainfall and flood data collected daily in households from both the North and South Channel of the Amazon estuary over last two years to identify how they co-vary, and robustness of current production portfolio under different hydro-climatic conditions.

  2. Black sea annual and inter-annual water mass variations from space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yildiz, H.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Simav, M.;

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of two widely used GRACE solutions (CNES/GRGS RL02 and CSR RL04) in deriving annual and inter-annual water mass variations in the Black Sea for the period 2003–2007. It is demonstrated that the GRACE derived water mass variations in the Black Sea are heavily i...

  3. Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

    2005-01-01

    with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

  4. Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

  5. Inter-annual variation in characteristics of endozoochory by wild Japanese macaques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamato Tsuji

    Full Text Available Endozoochory is important to the dynamics and regeneration of forest ecosystems. Despite the universality of inter-annual variation in fruit production, few studies have addressed the sign (seed predation versus seed dispersal and strength (frequency and quantity of fruit-frugivore interaction and the effectiveness of endozoochory in response to the long-term temporal context. In this study I evaluated the characteristics of endozoochorous dispersal by wild Japanese macaques Macaca fuscata inhabiting deciduous forest in northern Japan for five different years. I collected 378 fecal samples from the macaques in fall (September to November and quantified the proportion of feces containing seeds, number of seeds per fecal sample, ratio of intact seeds, and seed diversity. The proportion of feces containing seeds of any species (five-year mean: 85.9%, range: 78-97% did not show significant inter-annual variation, while species-level proportions did. The intact ratio of seeds (mean: 83%, range: 61-98% varied significantly both between years and between months, and this varied among dominant plant species. The number of seeds per fecal sample (mean: 78, range: 32-102 varied monthly but did not between years, and the seed diversity (mean: 0.66, range: 0.57-0.81 did not show significant inter-annual variation, both of which were attributed to longer duration of macaques' gastro-intestinal passage time of seeds exceed their feeding bouts. This study demonstrated that frequency and success of seed dispersal over seed predation of macaque endozoochory showed inter-annual variation, indicating low specificity across the seed-macaque network. The temporal variability in the quality of seed dispersal may provide evidence of high resilience in response to fluctuating environmental conditions in the temperate forests.

  6. Inter-annual variation in characteristics of endozoochory by wild Japanese macaques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuji, Yamato

    2014-01-01

    Endozoochory is important to the dynamics and regeneration of forest ecosystems. Despite the universality of inter-annual variation in fruit production, few studies have addressed the sign (seed predation versus seed dispersal) and strength (frequency and quantity) of fruit-frugivore interaction and the effectiveness of endozoochory in response to the long-term temporal context. In this study I evaluated the characteristics of endozoochorous dispersal by wild Japanese macaques Macaca fuscata inhabiting deciduous forest in northern Japan for five different years. I collected 378 fecal samples from the macaques in fall (September to November) and quantified the proportion of feces containing seeds, number of seeds per fecal sample, ratio of intact seeds, and seed diversity. The proportion of feces containing seeds of any species (five-year mean: 85.9%, range: 78-97%) did not show significant inter-annual variation, while species-level proportions did. The intact ratio of seeds (mean: 83%, range: 61-98%) varied significantly both between years and between months, and this varied among dominant plant species. The number of seeds per fecal sample (mean: 78, range: 32-102) varied monthly but did not between years, and the seed diversity (mean: 0.66, range: 0.57-0.81) did not show significant inter-annual variation, both of which were attributed to longer duration of macaques' gastro-intestinal passage time of seeds exceed their feeding bouts. This study demonstrated that frequency and success of seed dispersal over seed predation of macaque endozoochory showed inter-annual variation, indicating low specificity across the seed-macaque network. The temporal variability in the quality of seed dispersal may provide evidence of high resilience in response to fluctuating environmental conditions in the temperate forests.

  7. Seasonal and inter-annual sea surface height variations of the northern Indian Ocean from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Snaith, H.; Challenor, P.; Guymer, H.T.

    along the east and west coast of India, and offshore movement of the high (low) SSH patch during winter (summer) away from the tip of India indicates the role of remote forcings along the boundary and into the interior oceans. Inter-annual variability...

  8. Atmospheric forcing controlling inter-annual nutrient dynamics in the open Gulf of Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtoranta, Jouni; Savchuk, Oleg P.; Elken, Jüri; Dahlbo, Kim; Kuosa, Harri; Raateoja, Mika; Kauppila, Pirkko; Räike, Antti; Pitkänen, Heikki

    2017-07-01

    The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter-annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992-2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf.

  9. Inter-annual and inter-specific differences in the drift of fish eggs and yolksac larvae in the North Sea: A biophysical modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myron A. Peck

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available We employed 3-D biophysical modeling and dispersion kernel analysis to explore inter-annual and inter-specific differences in the drift trajectories of eggs and yolksac larvae of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, sprat (Sprattus sprattus and horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus in the North Sea. In this region, these four species exhibit peak spawning during the boreal winter, late winter/early spring, late spring/early summer, and mid-summer respectively, but utilize the same spawning locations (our simulations included Dogger Bank, Southern Bight and the German Bight. Inter-annual differences in the temperature history, and an increase in the area of dispersion and final distribution at the end of the yolksac phase were more pronounced (and related to the North Atlantic Oscillation for winter- and early spring-spawners compared to late spring/summer spawners. The progeny of the latter experienced the largest (up to 10-fold inter-annual differences in drift distances, although absolute drift distances were modest (~2 to 30 km when compared to those of the former (~ 20 to 130 km. Our results highlight the complex interplay that exists between the specific life history strategies of the different species and the impacts of the variability in (climate-driven physical factors during the earliest life stages of marine fish.

  10. Inter-annual variation of the earth rotation and El Nifio

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The relationship between the inter-annual variations of the earth rotation, atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), sunspot number and El Nifio is analyzed.The result shows that the inter-annual variation of the earth rotation responds to the variation of AAM and the pregnancy of El Nino timely. Generally, the inter-annual compohent of the earth rotation will reach zero in a changing process that increases from the negative to the positive extreme before El Nino occurs about half year or more. And the solar activity may have certain influence on the appearance of El Nino. We consider that El Nino will possibly appear around the end of 2001.``

  11. Inter-individual cognitive variability in children with Asperger's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Gadea, Maria Luz; Tripicchio, Paula; Rattazzi, Alexia; Baez, Sandra; Marino, Julian; Roca, Maria; Manes, Facundo; Ibanez, Agustin

    2014-01-01

    Multiple studies have tried to establish the distinctive profile of individuals with Asperger's syndrome (AS). However, recent reports suggest that adults with AS feature heterogeneous cognitive profiles. The present study explores inter-individual variability in children with AS through group comparison and multiple case series analysis. All participants completed an extended battery including measures of fluid and crystallized intelligence, executive functions, theory of mind, and classical neuropsychological tests. Significant group differences were found in theory of mind and other domains related to global information processing. However, the AS group showed high inter-individual variability (both sub- and supra-normal performance) on most cognitive tasks. Furthermore, high fluid intelligence correlated with less general cognitive impairment, high cognitive flexibility, and speed of motor processing. In light of these findings, we propose that children with AS are characterized by a distinct, uneven pattern of cognitive strengths and weaknesses.

  12. Seasonal and inter-annual variation in ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinne, Janne; Li, Xuefei; Raivonen, Maarit; Peltola, Olli; Sallantaus, Tapani; Haapanala, Sami; Smolander, Sampo; Alekseychik, Pavel; Aurela, Mika; Korrensalo, Aino; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Vesala, Timo

    2016-04-01

    Northern wetlands are one of the major sources of atmospheric methane. We have measured ecosystem scale methane emissions from a boreal fen continuously since 2005. The site is an oligotrophic fen in boreal vegetation zone situated in Siikaneva wetland complex in Southern Finland. The mean annual temperature in the area is 3.3°C and total annual precipitation 710 mm. We have conducted the methane emission measurements by the eddy covariance method. Additionally we have measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat together with a suite of other environmental parameters. We have analyzed this data alongside with a model run with University of Helsinki methane model. The measured fluxes show generally highest methane emission in late summers coinciding with the highest temperatures in saturated peat zone. During winters the fluxes show small but detectable emission despite the snow and ice cover on the fen. More than 90% of the annual methane emission occurs in snow-free period. The methane emission and peat temperature are connected in exponential manner in seasonal scales, but methane emission does not show the expected behavior with water table. The lack of water table position dependence also contrasts with the spatial variation across microtopography. There is no systematic variation in sub-diurnal time scale. The general seasonal cycle in methane emission is captured well with the methane model. We will show how well the model reproduces the temperature and water table position dependencies observed. The annual methane emission is typically around 10 gC m-2. This is a significant part of the total carbon exchange between the fen and the atmosphere and about twice the estimated carbon loss by leaching from the fen area. The inter-annual variability in the methane emission is modest. The June-September methane emissions from different years, comprising most of the annual emission, correlates positively with peat temperature, but not with

  13. Inter-individual cognitive variability in children with Asperger's syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Luz Gonzalez-Gadea; Paula eTripicchio; Alexia eRattazzi; Sandra eBaez; Julian eMarino; María eRoca; Facundo eManes; Agustin eIbanez

    2014-01-01

    Multiple studies have tried to establish the distinctive profile of individuals with Asperger's syndrome (AS). However, recent reports suggest that adults with AS feature heterogeneous cognitive profiles. The present study explores inter-individual variability in children with AS through group comparison and multiple case series analysis. All participants completed an extended battery including measures of fluid and crystallized intelligence, executive functions, theory of mind, and classical...

  14. Rheological evaluation of inter-grade and inter-batch variability of sodium alginate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Shao; Thacker, Ankur; Sperger, Diana M; Boni, Riccardo L; Velankar, Sachin; Munson, Eric J; Block, Lawrence H

    2010-12-01

    Polymeric excipients are often the least well-characterized components of pharmaceutical formulations. The aim of this study was to facilitate the QbD approach to pharmaceutical manufacturing by evaluating the inter-grade and inter-batch variability of pharmaceutical-grade polymeric excipients. Sodium alginate, a widely used polymeric excipient, was selected for evaluation using appropriate rheological methods and test conditions. The materials used were six different grades of sodium alginate and an additional ten batches of one of the grades. To compare the six grades, steady shear measurements were conducted on solutions at 1%, 2%, and 3% w/w, consistent with their use as thickening agents. Small-amplitude oscillation (SAO) measurements were conducted on sodium alginate solutions at higher concentrations (4-12% w/w) corresponding to their use in controlled-release matrices. In order to compare the ten batches of one grade, steady shear and SAO measurements were performed on their solutions at 2% w/w and 8% w/w, respectively. Results show that the potential interchangeability of these different grades used as thickening agents could be established by comparing the apparent viscosities of their solutions as a function of both alginate concentration and shear conditions. For sodium alginate used in controlled-release formulations, both steady shear behavior of solutions at low concentrations and viscoelastic properties at higher concentrations should be considered. Furthermore, among batches of the same grade, significant differences in rheological properties were observed, especially at higher solution concentrations. In conclusion, inter-grade and inter-batch variability of sodium alginate can be determined using steady shear and small-amplitude oscillation methods.

  15. Asynchrony in the inter-annual recruitment of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the Great Lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischke, Mitchell K.; Bunnell, David; Troy, Cary D.; Berglund, Eric K.; Caroffino, David C.; Ebener, Mark P.; He, Ji X.; Sitar, Shawn P.; Hook, Tomas O.

    2017-01-01

    Spatially separated fish populations may display synchrony in annual recruitment if the factors that drive recruitment success, particularly abiotic factors such as temperature, are synchronised across broad spatial scales. We examined inter-annual variation in recruitment among lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) populations in lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior using fishery-dependent and -independent data from 1971 to 2014. Relative year-class strength (RYCS) was calculated from catch-curve residuals for each year class across multiple sampling years. Pairwise comparison of RYCS among datasets revealed no significant associations either within or between lakes, suggesting that recruitment of lake whitefish is spatially asynchronous. There was no consistent correlation between pairwise agreement and the distance between datasets, and models to estimate the spatial scale of recruitment synchrony did not fit well to these data. This suggests that inter-annual recruitment variation of lake whitefish is asynchronous across broad spatial scales in the Great Lakes. While our method primarily evaluated year-to-year recruitment variation, it is plausible that recruitment of lake whitefish varies at coarser temporal scales (e.g. decadal). Nonetheless, our findings differ from research on some other Coregonus species and suggest that local biotic or density-dependent factors may contribute strongly to lake whitefish recruitment rather than inter-annual variability in broad-scale abiotic factors.

  16. Micro-phytoplankton community structure in the coastal upwelling zone off Concepción (central Chile): Annual and inter-annual fluctuations in a highly dynamic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anabalón, V.; Morales, C. E.; González, H. E.; Menschel, E.; Schneider, W.; Hormazabal, S.; Valencia, L.; Escribano, R.

    2016-12-01

    An intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in recent decades has been detected in some of the main eastern boundary current systems, especially at higher latitudes, but the response of coastal phytoplankton communities in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) remains unknown. At higher latitudes in the HCS (35-40°S), strong seasonality in wind-driven upwelling during spring-summer coincides with an annual increase in coastal chlorophyll-a and primary production, and a dominance of micro-phytoplankton. In order to understand the effects of potential upwelling intensification on the micro-phytoplankton community in this region, annual and inter-annual variability in its structure (total and taxa-specific abundance and biomass) and its association with oceanographic fluctuations were analyzed using in situ time series data (2002-2009) from a shelf station off Concepcion (36.5°S). At the annual scale, total mean abundance and biomass, attributed to a few dominant diatom taxa, were at least one order of magnitude greater during spring-summer than autumn-winter, in association with changes in upwelling and surface salinity and temperature, whereas macro-nutrient concentrations remained relatively high all the year. At the inter-annual scale, total abundance and biomass decreased during the upwelling season of the 2006-2009 period compared with the 2002-2006 period, notably due to lower abundances of Skeletonema and Leptocylindrus, but the relative dominance of a few taxa was maintained. The 2006-2009 period was characterized by higher upwelling intensity, colder and higher salinity waters, and changes in nutrient concentrations and ratios compared with the first period. The inter-annual changes in the micro-phytoplankton community were mostly associated with changes in surface salinity and temperature (changes in upwelling intensity) but also with changes in Si/N and N/P, which relate to other land-derived processes.

  17. Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choler, P.

    2015-06-01

    A remote sensing approach is used to examine the direct and indirect effects of snow cover duration and weather conditions on the growth response of mountain grasslands located above the tree line in the French Alps. Time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIint), used as a surrogate for aboveground primary productivity, and snow cover duration were derived from a 13-year long time series of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A regional-scale meteorological forcing that accounted for topographical effects was provided by the SAFRAN-CROCUS-MEPRA model chain. A hierarchical path analysis was developed to analyze the multivariate causal relationships between forcing variables and proxies of primary productivity. Inter-annual variations in primary productivity were primarily governed by year-to-year variations in the length of the snow-free period and to a much lesser extent by temperature and precipitation during the growing season. A prolonged snow cover reduces the number and magnitude of frost events during the initial growth period but this has a negligible impact on NDVIint as compared to the strong negative effect of a delayed snow melting. The maximum NDVI slightly responded to increased summer precipitation and temperature but the impact on productivity was weak. The period spanning from peak standing biomass to the first snowfall accounted for two-thirds of NDVIint and this explained the high sensitivity of NDVIint to autumn temperature and autumn rainfall that control the timing of the first snowfall. The ability of mountain plants to maintain green tissues during the whole snow-free period along with the relatively low responsiveness of peak standing biomass to summer meteorological conditions led to the conclusion that the length of the snow-free period is the primary driver of the inter-annual variations in primary productivity of mountain grasslands.

  18. Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations of snow cover duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Choler

    2015-02-01

    (NDVIint, used as a surrogate for aboveground primary productivity, and snow cover duration were derived from a 13 year long time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS. A regional-scale meteorological forcing that accounted for topographical effects was provided by the SAFRAN–Crocus–MEPRA model chain. A hierarchical path analysis was developed to analyze the multivariate causal relationships between forcing variables and proxies of primary productivity. Inter-annual variations in primary productivity were primarily governed by year-to-year variations in the length of the snow-free period and to a much lesser extent by temperature and precipitation during the growing season. A prolonged snow cover reduces the number and magnitude of frost events during the initial growth period but this has a negligeable impact on NDVIint as compared to the strong negative effect of a delayed snow melting. The maximum NDVI slightly responded to increased summer precipitation and temperature but the impact on productivity was weak. The period spanning from peak standing biomass to the first snowfall accounted for two thirds of NDVIint and this explained the high sensitivity of NDVIint to autumn temperature and autumn rainfall that control the timing of the first snowfall. The ability of mountain plants to maintain green tissues during the whole snow-free period along with the relatively low responsiveness of peak standing biomass to summer meteorological conditions led to the conclusion that the length of the snow-free period is the primary driver of the inter-annual variations in primary productivity of mountain grasslands.

  19. Minimizing inter-microscope variability in dental microwear texture analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arman, Samuel D.; Ungar, Peter S.; Brown, Christopher A.; DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Schmidt, Christopher; Prideaux, Gavin J.

    2016-06-01

    A common approach to dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA) uses confocal profilometry in concert with scale-sensitive fractal analysis to help understand the diets of extinct mammals. One of the main benefits of DMTA over other methods is the repeatable, objective manner of data collection. This repeatability, however, is threatened by variation in results of DMTA of the same dental surfaces yielded by different microscopes. Here we compare DMTA data of five species of kangaroos measured on seven profilers of varying specifications. Comparison between microscopes confirms that inter-microscope differences are present, but we show that deployment of a number of automated treatments to remove measurement noise can help minimize inter-microscope differences. Applying these same treatments to a published hominin DMTA dataset shows that they alter some significant differences between dietary groups. Minimising microscope variability while maintaining interspecific dietary differences requires then that these factors are balanced in determining appropriate treatments. The process outlined here offers a solution for allowing comparison of data between microscopes, which is essential for ongoing DMTA research. In addition, the process undertaken, including considerations of other elements of DMTA protocols also promises to streamline methodology, remove measurement noise and in doing so, optimize recovery of a reliable dietary signature.

  20. Inter- and intra-annual variation of water footprint of crops and blue water scarcity in the Yellow River basin (1961-2009)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhuo, L.; Mekonnen, M.M.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Wada, Y.

    2016-01-01

    The Yellow River Basin (YRB), the second largest river basin of China, has experienced a booming agriculture over the past decades. But data on variability of and trends in water consumption, pollution and scarcity in the YRB are lacking. We estimate, for the first time, the inter- and intra-annual

  1. Seasonal and inter-annual photosynthetic response of representative C4 species to soil water content and leaf nitrogen concentration across a tropical seasonal floodplain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mantlana, K.B.; Arneth, A.; Veenendaal, E.M.; Wohland, P.; Wolski, P.; Kolle, O.; Lloyd, J.

    2008-01-01

    We examined the seasonal and inter-annual variation of leaf-level photosynthetic characteristics of three C4 perennial species, Cyperus articulatus, Panicum repens and Imperata cylindrica, and their response to environmental variables, to determine comparative physiological responses of plants repre

  2. Solar induced inter-annual variability of ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fytterer, Tilo; Nieder, Holger; Perot, Kristell; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Stiller, Gabriele; Urban, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Measurements by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding instrument on board the ENVIromental SATellite from 2005 - 2011 are used to investigate the impact of solar and geomagnetic activity on O3 in the stratosphere and mesosphere inside the Antarctic polar vortex. It is known from observations that energetic particles, mainly originating from the sun, precipitate in the Earth atmosphere and produce odd nitrogen NOx (N + NO + NO2) in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, which is transported downwards into the stratosphere during polar winter. Results from global chemistry-transport models suggest that this leads to a depletion of O3 down to ~30 km at high latitudes during winter. Therefore it appears promising to search for a link between high energetic particles and O3 in actual data sets. Thus in this study, correlation analysis between a 26 days average centred around 1 Apr, 1 May and 1 Jun of several solar/geomagnetic indices (Ap index, F10.7 cm solar radio flux, Lyman-alpha, 2 MeV electrons flux) and 26 day running means from 1 Apr - 1 Nov of O3 in the altitude range from 20 - 70 km were performed. The results reveal negative correlation coefficients propagating downwards throughout the polar winter, at least for the Ap index and the 2 MeV electrons flux. Comparisons with TIMED/SABER and Odin/SMR O3 data are in moderate agreement, also showing a descending negative signal in either indices, but only for the correlation with 1 Apr.

  3. Study on mechanism of interdecadal Atlantic thermohaline circulation variability Ⅱ. Inter-annual and Inter-decadal variations%大西洋热盐环流年代际变化机制研究Ⅱ.热盐环流年际和年代际变化机制研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    牟林; 陈学恩; 宋军; 姜晓轶; 李欢; 李琰

    2011-01-01

    A climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) newly developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the variations of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC). Especially, the mechanism of the inter-decadal variability of the THC is discussed in details. The result of this study shows that: (1) the dominant period of interannual variability of THC is 4 years, while the dominant period of interdecadal variability of THC is 24 years, which appears as the strongest signal and the first principal component. (2) The interdecadal variability of the THC works as follows: when the THC has the weakest strength, negative temperature anomalies are induced in the up upper ocean north of the Gulf Stream region due to the reduced northward ocean heat transport. About 5 years later, the negative temperature anomalies reach its maximum. Associated with the build up of negative upper ocean temperature anomalies positive anomalies in the upper ocean density and an acceleration of the subpolar gyre and North Atlantic Current (NAC) take place. After another 3 years the subpolar gyre and NAC receive their strongest values. Stronger subpolar gyre and NAC mean increased transport of salinity into the Greenland—Iceland—Norway (GIN) seas and will lead to a maximum in the upper ocean density in GIN. After 1 further year enhanced convection is triggered, leading to an increase in the rate of deep water formation and acceleration of the THC. The THC reaches its maximum approximately 4 years after the maximum of subpolar gyre and NAC strength. The total time for the phase reversal is 12 years, consistent with a period of about 24 years.%基于德国Max-Planck气象研究所的最新大气海洋环流模式(ECHAM5/MPI-OM),对控制试验(control run)下热盐环流(THC)年际及年代际变化进行了分析,揭示了年代际变率的产生机制.研究表明:(1)THC

  4. Inter-Grade and Inter-Batch Variability of Sodium Alginate Used in Alginate-Based Matrix Tablets

    OpenAIRE

    Fu, Shao; Buckner, Ira S.; Block, Lawrence H.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to characterize the inter-grade and inter-batch variability of sodium alginate used in the formulation of matrix tablets. Four different grades and three batches of one grade of sodium alginate were used to prepare matrix tablets. Swelling, erosion, and drug release tests of sodium alginate matrix tablets were conducted in a USP dissolution apparatus. Substantial differences in swelling and erosion behavior of sodium alginate matrix tablets were evident among diff...

  5. Multivariate models of inter-subject anatomical variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashburner, John; Klöppel, Stefan

    2011-05-15

    This paper presents a very selective review of some of the approaches for multivariate modelling of inter-subject variability among brain images. It focusses on applying probabilistic kernel-based pattern recognition approaches to pre-processed anatomical MRI, with the aim of most accurately modelling the difference between populations of subjects. Some of the principles underlying the pattern recognition approaches of Gaussian process classification and regression are briefly described, although the reader is advised to look elsewhere for full implementational details. Kernel pattern recognition methods require matrices that encode the degree of similarity between the images of each pair of subjects. This review focusses on similarity measures derived from the relative shapes of the subjects' brains. Pre-processing is viewed as generative modelling of anatomical variability, and there is a special emphasis on the diffeomorphic image registration framework, which provides a very parsimonious representation of relative shapes. Although the review is largely methodological, excessive mathematical notation is avoided as far as possible, as the paper attempts to convey a more intuitive understanding of various concepts. The paper should be of interest to readers wishing to apply pattern recognition methods to MRI data, with the aim of clinical diagnosis or biomarker development. It also tries to explain that the best models are those that most accurately predict, so similar approaches should also be relevant to basic science. Knowledge of some basic linear algebra and probability theory should make the review easier to follow, although it may still have something to offer to those readers whose mathematics may be more limited. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of community metabolism rates of a Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champenois, W.; Borges, A. V.

    2012-04-01

    We report gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and net community production (NCP) over Posidonia oceanica meadow at 10 m in Corsica (Bay of Revellata) based on the open water O2 mass balance from a data-set of hourly measurements with an array of three O2 optodes deployed from August 2006 to October 2009. The method was checked by comparison with discrete measurements of metabolic rates derived from benthic chamber incubations also based on the diel change of O2. This comparison was satisfactory and actually highlights the potential caveats of benthic incubation measurements related to O2 accumulation in small chambers leading to photorespiration, and an under-estimation of GPP. Our data confirmed previous P. oceanica meadows GPP and CR values, strong seasonal variations, and net autotrophy. High resolution data revealed strong inter-annual variability, with a decrease of GPP by 35% and NCP by 87% during 2006-2007 characterized by a mild and less stormy winter compared 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. P. oceanica meadows are then expected to decrease export of organic carbon to adjacent communities (decrease of NCP), since a decrease in frequency and intensity of marine storms is expected in future in the Mediterranean Sea, due to a northward shift of the Atlantic storm track.

  7. Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huybers, Peter; Curry, William

    2006-05-18

    Climate variability exists at all timescales-and climatic processes are intimately coupled, so that understanding variability at any one timescale requires some understanding of the whole. Records of the Earth's surface temperature illustrate this interdependence, having a continuum of variability following a power-law scaling. But although specific modes of interannual variability are relatively well understood, the general controls on continuum variability are uncertain and usually described as purely stochastic processes. Here we show that power-law relationships of surface temperature variability scale with annual and Milankovitch-period (23,000- and 41,000-year) cycles. The annual cycle corresponds to scaling at monthly to decadal periods, while millennial and longer periods are tied to the Milankovitch cycles. Thus the annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability together represent the response to deterministic insolation forcing. The identification of a deterministic control on the continuum provides insight into the mechanisms governing interannual and longer-period climate variability.

  8. Inter-reader variability in alternate forced choice studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, W.; Ogden, K. M.; Samei, E.; Scalzetti, E. M.; Lavallee, R. L.; Roskopf, M. L.

    2008-03-01

    In this study, we investigated differences in detection performance for twelve observers who each generated a CT contrast detail curve. An anthropomorphic newborn phantom's abdomen was imaged using a GE Light Speed CT scanner (4-slice). Alternate Forced Choice (AFC) experiments were performed with lesions sizes ranging from 2.5 to 12.5 mm to determine the intensity needed to achieve 92% correct (I 92%). Following training, twelve readers consisting of (2 technologists, 4 college students, 4 medical students, and 2 radiology residents) generated a single contrast detail curve. Eight readers produced approximately linear contrast detail curves while the remaining four readers required a second order polynomial fit because of reduced performance when detecting the largest (i.e., 12.5 mm) lesion. For the three smallest lesions, the coefficient of variation between the twelve readers was ~12%, which increases with increasing lesion size to ~23% for 12.5 mm lesion size. The ratio of the maximum I 92% to minimum I 92% values was ~1.6 for the smallest lesions, which increased to a factor of ~2.1 for the 12.5 mm lesion. Our results show that minimizing inter-reader variability in our AFC experiments could be achieved by eliminating the largest lesion that cause detection problems in one third of observers. The combined experimental data showed that the slope of the contrast detail curve was -0.42, lower than the value of -1.0 predicted by the Rose model, suggesting that the noise texture in CT associated with both quantum mottle and anatomic structure is an important factor affecting detection of these lesions.

  9. How similar are annual and summer temperature variability in central Sweden?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Peng; Deliang CHEN; Hans W. LINDERHOLM; ZHANG Qiong

    2015-01-01

    Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide insights into the variability of past annual mean tem-perature from the reconstructed summer temperature. However, how similar are summer and annual temperatures is to a large extent still unknown. This study aims at investigating the relationship between annual and summer temperatures at different timescales in central Sweden during the last millennium. The temperature variability in central Sweden can represent large parts of Scandinavia which has been a key region for dendroclimatological research. The observed annual and summer temperatures during 1901e2005 were firstly decomposed into different frequency bands using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, and then the scale-dependent relationship was quantified using Pearson correlation coefficients. The relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures determined by the instrumental data was subsequently used to evaluate 7 climate models. The model with the best performance was used to infer the relationship for the last millennium. The results show that the relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures becomes stronger as the timescale increases, except for the 4e16 years timescales at which it does not show any relationship. The summer temperature variability at short timescales (2e4 years) shows much higher variance than the annual variability, while the annual temperature variability at long timescales (>32 years) has a much higher variance than the summer one. During the last millennium, the simulated summer temperature also shows higher variance at the short timescales (2e4 years) and lower variance at the long timescales (>1024 years) than those of the annual temperature. The relationship between the two temperatures is generally close at the

  10. Intraregional and inter-regional variability of herbicide sensitivity in common arable weed populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Mol, Friederike; Gerowitt, Bärbel; Kaczmarek, Sylwia

    2015-01-01

    The question on intraregional versus inter-regional variability in herbicide sensitivity for weed populations is of major importance, both in extrapolation of model parameters and in herbicide zonal approval procedures. We hypothesised that inter-regional variability in herbicide sensitivity for ...

  11. Localised residency and inter-annual fidelity to coastal foraging areas may place sea bass at risk to local depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas K.; Haberlin, Damien; Clohessy, Jim; Bennison, Ashley; Jessopp, Mark

    2017-04-01

    For many marine migratory fish, comparatively little is known about the movement of individuals rather than the population. Yet, such individual-based movement data is vitally important to understand variability in migratory strategies and fidelity to foraging locations. A case in point is the economically important European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) that inhabits coastal waters during the summer months before migrating offshore to spawn and overwinter. Beyond this broad generalisation we have very limited information on the movements of individuals at coastal foraging grounds. We used acoustic telemetry to track the summer movements and seasonal migrations of individual sea bass in a large tidally and estuarine influenced coastal environment. We found that the vast majority of tagged sea bass displayed long-term residency (mean, 167 days) and inter-annual fidelity (93% return rate) to specific areas. We describe individual fish home ranges of 3 km or less, and while fish clearly had core resident areas, there was movement of fish between closely located receivers. The combination of inter-annual fidelity to localised foraging areas makes sea bass very susceptible to local depletion; however, the designation of protected areas for sea bass may go a long way to ensuring the sustainability of this species.

  12. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  13. Inter-annual variations in wave characteristics off Ratnagiri, Northeast Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Johnson, G.; SanilKumar, V.; Singh

    . Proc., vol.4; 2015; 25–31 Inter-annual variations in wave characteristics off Ratnagiri, Northeast Arabian Sea Johnson Glejin, Sanil Kumar V*, Jai Singh CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography (Council of Scientific & Industrial Research), Dona....N.B., Singh, J., 2013a. Influence of winds on temporally varying short and long period gravity waves in the nearshore regions of the eastern Arabian Sea, Ocean Sciences 9, 343–353 Glejin J., Sanil Kumar,V. Jai Singh, Balakrishnan Nair,T.N., Mehra P. 2013b...

  14. Large inter annual variation in air quality during the annual festival 'Diwali' in an Indian megacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkhi, Neha; Chate, Dilip; Ghude, Sachin D; Peshin, Sunil; Mahajan, Anoop; Srinivas, Reka; Surendran, Divya; Ali, Kaushar; Singh, Siddhartha; Trimbake, Hanumant; Beig, Gufran

    2016-05-01

    A network of air quality and weather monitoring stations was established under the System of Air Quality Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) project in Delhi. We report observations of ozone (O3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) before, during and after the Diwali in two consecutive years, i.e., November 2010 and October 2011. The Diwali days are characterised by large firework displays throughout India. The observations show that the background concentrations of particulate matter are between 5 and 10 times the permissible limits in Europe and the United States. During the Diwali-2010, the highest observed PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentration is as high as 2070µg/m3 and 1620μg/m(3), respectively (24hr mean), which was about 20 and 27 times to National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). For Diwali-2011, the increase in PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentrations was much less with their peaks of 600 and of 390μg/m(3) respectively, as compared to the background concentrations. Contrary to previous reports, firework display was not found to strongly influence the NOx, and O3 mixing ratios, with the increase within the observed variability in the background. CO mixing ratios showed an increase. We show that the large difference in 2010 and 2011 pollutant concentrations is controlled by weather parameters.

  15. Local diffusion homogeneity (LDH): an inter-voxel diffusion MRI metric for assessing inter-subject white matter variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Gaolang

    2013-01-01

    Many diffusion parameters and indices (e.g., fractional anisotropy [FA] and mean diffusivity [MD]) have been derived from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. These parameters have been extensively applied as imaging markers for localizing white matter (WM) changes under various conditions (e.g., development, degeneration and disease). However, the vast majority of the existing parameters is derived from intra-voxel analyses and represents the diffusion properties solely within the voxel unit. Other types of parameters that characterize inter-voxel relationships have been largely overlooked. In the present study, we propose a novel inter-voxel metric referred to as the local diffusion homogeneity (LDH). This metric quantifies the local coherence of water molecule diffusion in a model-free manner. It can serve as an additional marker for evaluating the WM microstructural properties of the brain. To assess the distinguishing features between LDH and FA/MD, the metrics were systematically compared across space and subjects. As an example, both the LDH and FA/MD metrics were applied to measure age-related WM changes. The results indicate that LDH reveals unique inter-subject variability in specific WM regions (e.g., cerebral peduncle, internal capsule and splenium). Furthermore, there are regions in which measurements of age-related WM alterations with the LDH and FA/MD metrics yield discrepant results. These findings suggest that LDH and FA/MD have different sensitivities to specific WM microstructural properties. Taken together, the present study shows that LDH is complementary to the conventional diffusion-MRI markers and may provide additional insights into inter-subject WM variability. Further studies, however, are needed to uncover the neuronal mechanisms underlying the LDH.

  16. Local diffusion homogeneity (LDH: an inter-voxel diffusion MRI metric for assessing inter-subject white matter variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaolang Gong

    Full Text Available Many diffusion parameters and indices (e.g., fractional anisotropy [FA] and mean diffusivity [MD] have been derived from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI data. These parameters have been extensively applied as imaging markers for localizing white matter (WM changes under various conditions (e.g., development, degeneration and disease. However, the vast majority of the existing parameters is derived from intra-voxel analyses and represents the diffusion properties solely within the voxel unit. Other types of parameters that characterize inter-voxel relationships have been largely overlooked. In the present study, we propose a novel inter-voxel metric referred to as the local diffusion homogeneity (LDH. This metric quantifies the local coherence of water molecule diffusion in a model-free manner. It can serve as an additional marker for evaluating the WM microstructural properties of the brain. To assess the distinguishing features between LDH and FA/MD, the metrics were systematically compared across space and subjects. As an example, both the LDH and FA/MD metrics were applied to measure age-related WM changes. The results indicate that LDH reveals unique inter-subject variability in specific WM regions (e.g., cerebral peduncle, internal capsule and splenium. Furthermore, there are regions in which measurements of age-related WM alterations with the LDH and FA/MD metrics yield discrepant results. These findings suggest that LDH and FA/MD have different sensitivities to specific WM microstructural properties. Taken together, the present study shows that LDH is complementary to the conventional diffusion-MRI markers and may provide additional insights into inter-subject WM variability. Further studies, however, are needed to uncover the neuronal mechanisms underlying the LDH.

  17. Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

    2014-12-01

    Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in

  18. Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

    2017-04-01

    Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

  19. Inter-annual cascade effect on marine food web: A benthic pathway lagging nutrient supply to pelagic fish stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Lohengrin Dias de Almeida; Fagundes Netto, Eduardo Barros; Coutinho, Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    Currently, spatial and temporal changes in nutrients availability, marine planktonic, and fish communities are best described on a shorter than inter-annual (seasonal) scale, primarily because the simultaneous year-to-year variations in physical, chemical, and biological parameters are very complex. The limited availability of time series datasets furnishing simultaneous evaluations of temperature, nutrients, plankton, and fish have limited our ability to describe and to predict variability related to short-term process, as species-specific phenology and environmental seasonality. In the present study, we combine a computational time series analysis on a 15-year (1995-2009) weekly-sampled time series (high-resolution long-term time series, 780 weeks) with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to track non-seasonal changes in 10 potentially related parameters: sea surface temperature, nutrient concentrations (NO2, NO3, NH4 and PO4), phytoplankton biomass (as in situ chlorophyll a biomass), meroplankton (barnacle and mussel larvae), and fish abundance (Mugil liza and Caranx latus). Our data demonstrate for the first time that highly intense and frequent upwelling years initiate a huge energy flux that is not fully transmitted through classical size-structured food web by bottom-up stimulus but through additional ontogenetic steps. A delayed inter-annual sequential effect from phytoplankton up to top predators as carnivorous fishes is expected if most of energy is trapped into benthic filter feeding organisms and their larval forms. These sequential events can explain major changes in ecosystem food web that were not predicted in previous short-term models.

  20. Statistically Characterizing Intra- and Inter-Individual Variability in Children with Developmental Coordination Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Bradley R.; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Oliveira, Marcio A.; Clark, Jane E.

    2011-01-01

    Previous research investigating children with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) has consistently reported increased intra- and inter-individual variability during motor skill performance. Statistically characterizing this variability is not only critical for the analysis and interpretation of behavioral data, but also may facilitate our…

  1. Inter-annual variations of snow days over Switzerland from 2000–2010 derived from MODIS satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Seiz

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Snow cover plays a vital role in the Swiss Alps and therefore it is of major interest to determine and understand its variability on different spatiotemporal scales. Within the activities of the National Climate Observing System (GCOS Switzerland inter-annual variations of snow days over Switzerland were derived from 2000 to 2010 based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on board the Terra satellite. To minimize the impact of cloud cover on the MODIS snow product MOD10C1, we implemented a post-processing technique based on a forward and backward gap-filling approach. Using the proposed methodology it was possible to determine the total number of annual snow days over Switzerland from 2000 to 2010 (SCDMODIS. The accuracy of the calculated snow days per year were quantitatively evaluated against three in situ snow observation sites representing different climatological regimes (SCDin_situ. Various statistical indices were computed and analysed over the entire period. The overall accuracy between SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ on a daily basis over 10 yr is 88% to 94%, depending on the regional characteristics of each validation site. Differences between SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ vary during the snow accumulation period in autumn and smaller differences after spring, in particularly for the Central Alps.

  2. Inter-annual variations of snow days over Switzerland from 2000-2010 derived from MODIS satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foppa, N.; Seiz, G.

    2012-03-01

    Snow cover plays a vital role in the Swiss Alps and therefore it is of major interest to determine and understand its variability on different spatiotemporal scales. Within the activities of the National Climate Observing System (GCOS Switzerland) inter-annual variations of snow days over Switzerland were derived from 2000 to 2010 based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra satellite. To minimize the impact of cloud cover on the MODIS snow product MOD10C1, we implemented a post-processing technique based on a forward and backward gap-filling approach. Using the proposed methodology it was possible to determine the total number of annual snow days over Switzerland from 2000 to 2010 (SCDMODIS). The accuracy of the calculated snow days per year were quantitatively evaluated against three in situ snow observation sites representing different climatological regimes (SCDin_situ). Various statistical indices were computed and analysed over the entire period. The overall accuracy between SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ on a daily basis over 10 yr is 88% to 94%, depending on the regional characteristics of each validation site. Differences between SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ vary during the snow accumulation period in autumn and smaller differences after spring, in particularly for the Central Alps.

  3. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  4. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allyson L Carroll

    Full Text Available Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood

  5. Analysis of inter-variable relations in regional climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcke, Renate; Chandler, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The topic of physical consistency and inter-variable relations of climate model output, in particular when applying statistical downscaling and bias correction to single variables, is widely discussed in the climate impact modelling and climate impact communities. Many situations require the consideration of several climate variables simultaneously, as a result of which it is also necessary to check that the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by the RCMs. Given that it is common practice to bias-adjust RCM outputs so as to improve their properties with respect to the distribution of variables taken individually, it is also of interest to determine whether inter-variable relationships are affected by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping, that are applied separately to each variable. A pragmatic reason to look at this is, if bias-adjusted outputs are to be used in impacts studies, it is necessary to check that the inter-variable relationships are realistic. A more fundamental reason is, that RCMs are physically based and, before bias correction, their outputs should therefore ideally be physically consistent. However, an empirical bias adjustment procedure has the potential to break the physical consistency, thereby removing one of the strongest justifications for using RCMs in the first place. Based on these considerations, the study aims to answer two questions. The first is to assess the inter-variable relationships in a suite of RCM outputs in more detail than has previously been attempted, by examining conditional probability densities instead of correlations. The second is to quantify the extent to which these conditional densities are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. The results can be used both to evaluate the ability of current RCMs (bias-adjusted or not) to provide useful information for climate change impact assessments; and also to determine the viability of quantile mapping as a

  6. Variability of annual CO2 exchange from Dutch Grasslands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schrier-Uijl

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available An intercomparison is made of the Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2, NEE, for eight Dutch grassland sites; four natural grasslands, two production grasslands and two meteorological stations within a rotational grassland region. At all sites the NEE was determined during at least 10 months per site, using the eddy-covariance (EC technique, but in different years. The photosynthesis-light response analysis technique is used along with the respiration-temperature response technique to partition NEE among Gross Primary Production (GPP and Ecosystem Respiration (Re and to obtain the eco-physiological characteristics of the sites at the field scale. Annual sums of NEE, GPP and Re are then estimated using the fitted response curves with observed radiation and air temperature from a meteorological site in the centre of The Netherlands as drivers. These calculations are carried out for four years (2002–2005. The estimated annual Re for all individual sites is more or less constant per site and the average for all sites amounts to 1390±30 gC m−2 a−1. The narrow uncertainty band (±2% reflects the small differences in the mean annual air temperature. The mean annual GPP was estimated to be 1325 g C m−2 a−1, and displays a much higher standard deviation, of ±100 gC m−2 a−1 (8%, which reflects the relatively large variation in annual solar radiation. The mean annual NEE amounts to –65±85 gC m−2 a−1, which implies that on average the grasslands act as a source, with a relatively large standard deviation. From two sites, four-year records of CO2 flux were available and analyzed (2002–2005. Using the weather record of 2005 with optimizations from the other years, standard deviation of annual GPP was estimated to be 171–206 gC m−2 a−1 (8–14%, of annual Re 227–247 gC m−2 a−1 (14–16% and of annual NEE 176–276 gC m−2 a−1. The inter-site standard deviation was higher for GPP and Re, 534 gC m−2 a−1 (37.3% and 486 gC m

  7. Topographic control of snowpack distribution in a small catchment in the central Spanish Pyrenees: intra- and inter-annual persistence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Revuelto

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analyzed the relations between terrain characteristics and snow depth distribution in a small alpine catchment located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. Twelve field campaigns were conducted during 2012 and 2013, which were years characterized by very different climatic conditions. Snow depth was measured using a long range terrestrial laser scanner and analyses were performed at a spatial resolution of 5 m. Pearson's r correlation, multiple linear regressions and binary regression trees were used to analyze the influence of topography on the snow depth distribution. The analyses were used to identify the topographic variables that better explain the snow distribution in this catchment, and to assess whether their contributions were variable over intra- and inter-annual time scales. The topographic position index, which has rarely been used in these types of studies, most accurately explained the distribution of snow accumulation. Other variables affecting the snow depth distribution included the maximum upwind slope, elevation, and northing (or potential incoming solar radiation. The models developed to predict snow distribution in the basin for each of the 12 survey days were similar in terms of the most explanatory variables. However, the variance explained by the overall model and by each topographic variable, especially those making a lesser contribution, differed markedly between a year in which snow was abundant (2013 and a~year when snow was scarce (2012, and also differed between surveys in which snow accumulation or melting conditions dominated in the preceding days. The total variance explained by the models clearly decreased for those days on which the snow pack was thinner and more patchily distributed. Despite the differences in climatic conditions in the 2012 and 2013 snow seasons, some similarities in snow accumulation patterns were observed.

  8. Inter-annual variations of snow days over Switzerland from 2000–2010 derived from MODIS satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Foppa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Snow cover plays a vital role in the Swiss Alps and therefore it is of major interest to determine and understand its variability on different spatiotemporal scales. Within the activities of the National Climate Observing System (GCOS Switzerland inter-annual variations of snow days over Switzerland were derived from 2000 to 2010 based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on board the Terra satellite. To minimize the impact of cloud cover on the MODIS snow product MOD10C1, we implemented a post-processing technique based on a forward and backward gap-filling approach. Using the proposed methodology it was possible to determine the total number of annual snow days over Switzerland from 2000 to 2010 (SCDMODIS. The accuracy of the calculated snow days per year were quantitatively evaluated against three in situ snow observation sites representing different climatological regimes (SCDin_situ. The correlation (c between annual SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ is highest for the lowland regions by (c = 0.90 with a slightly lower correlation for the Central Alps of 0.82 and a mean absolute difference of −6 to −7 days (SCDin_situ − SCDMODIS. Differences were further analysed on a monthly and daily resolution over the entire period. The overall agreement between SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ on a daily basis over 10 yr is 88 % to 94 %, depending on the regional characteristics of each validation site. Differences between SCDMODIS and SCDin_situ vary with higher mean absolute differences during the snow accumulation period in autumn and smaller differences after spring, in particularly for the Central Alps. These findings are in agreement with other studies.

  9. Inter-grade and inter-batch variability of sodium alginate used in alginate-based matrix tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Shao; Buckner, Ira S; Block, Lawrence H

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to characterize the inter-grade and inter-batch variability of sodium alginate used in the formulation of matrix tablets. Four different grades and three batches of one grade of sodium alginate were used to prepare matrix tablets. Swelling, erosion, and drug release tests of sodium alginate matrix tablets were conducted in a USP dissolution apparatus. Substantial differences in swelling and erosion behavior of sodium alginate matrix tablets were evident among different viscosity grades. Even different batches of the same grade exhibit substantial differences in the swelling and erosion behavior of their matrix tablets. The erosion behavior of sodium alginate matrix tablets can be partly explained by their rheological properties (both apparent viscosity and viscoelasticity) in solution. Sodium alginate with higher apparent viscosity and viscoelasticity in solution show slower erosion rate and higher swelling rate. Compacts prepared from grades or batches with higher viscosity and higher viscoelasticity show slower drug release. For grades or batches with similar apparent viscosities, apparent viscosities of sodium alginate solution at low concentration alone are not sufficient to predict the functionality of sodium alginate in matrix tablets. Viscoelastic properties of sodium alginate solutions at one high concentration corresponding to the polymer gel state, may be suitable indicia of the extended release behavior of sodium alginate matrix tablets.

  10. A novel method for diagnosing seasonal to inter-annual surface ocean carbon dynamics from bottle data using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Sasse

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The ocean's role in modulating the observed 1–7 Pg C yr−1 inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate is an important, but poorly constrained process due to current spatio-temporal limitations in ocean carbon measurements. Here, we investigate and develop a non-linear empirical approach to predict inorganic CO2 concentrations (total carbon dioxide (CT and total alkalinity (AT in the global ocean mixed layer from hydrographic properties (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nutrients. The benefit of this approach is that once the empirical relationship is established, it can be applied to hydrographic datasets that have better spatio-temporal coverage, and therefore provide an additional constraint to diagnose ocean carbon dynamics globally. Previous empirical approaches have employed multiple linear regressions (MLR and relied on ad hoc geographic and temporal partitioning of carbon data to constrain complex global carbon dynamics in the mixed layer. Synthesizing a new global CT/AT carbon bottle dataset consisting of ~33 000 measurements in the open ocean mixed layer, we develop a neural network based approach to better constrain the non-linear carbon system. The approach classifies features in the global biogeochemical dataset based on their similarity and homogeneity in a self-organizing map (SOM; Kohonen, 1988. After the initial SOM analysis, which includes geographic constraints, we apply a local linear optimizer to the neural network, which considerably enhances the predictive skill of the new approach. We call this new approach SOMLO, or self-organizing multiple linear output. Using independent bottle carbon data, we compare a traditional MLR analysis to our SOMLO approach to capture the spatial CT and AT distributions. We find the SOMLO approach improves predictive skill globally by 19% for CT, with a global capacity to predict CT to within 10.9 μmol kg−1 (9.2 μmol kg−1 for AT. The non-linear SOMLO approach is

  11. Intra- and inter-seasonal variability of nutrients in a tropical monsoonal estuary (Zuari, India).

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anand, S.S.; Sardessai, S.; Muthukumar, C.; Mangalaa, K.R.; Sundar, D.; Parab, S.G.; DileepKumar, M.

    A study was conducted to understand the intra- and inter-seasonal variability of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in a tropical monsoon estuary (Zuari in Goa, India). We adopted a dual sampling approach with (a) daily or alternate day sampling at a...

  12. 3D facial landmarks: Inter-operator variability of manual annotation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Jens; Harder, Stine; Rosengren, Anders;

    2014-01-01

    was randomly chosen. Six operators twice manually annotated 73 anatomical and pseudo-landmarks, using a three-step scheme producing a dense point correspondence map. We analyzed both the intra- and inter-operator variability, using mixed-model ANOVA. We then compared four sparse sets of landmarks in order...

  13. Cardiac valve calcifications on low-dose unenhanced ungated chest computed tomography: inter-observer and inter-examination reliability, agreement and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamersvelt, Robbert W. van; Willemink, Martin J.; Takx, Richard A.P.; Eikendal, Anouk L.M.; Budde, Ricardo P.J.; Leiner, Tim; Jong, Pim A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Mol, Christian P.; Isgum, Ivana [University Medical Center Utrecht, Image Sciences Institute, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2014-07-15

    To determine inter-observer and inter-examination variability for aortic valve calcification (AVC) and mitral valve and annulus calcification (MC) in low-dose unenhanced ungated lung cancer screening chest computed tomography (CT). We included 578 lung cancer screening trial participants who were examined by CT twice within 3 months to follow indeterminate pulmonary nodules. On these CTs, AVC and MC were measured in cubic millimetres. One hundred CTs were examined by five observers to determine the inter-observer variability. Reliability was assessed by kappa statistics (κ) and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). Variability was expressed as the mean difference ± standard deviation (SD). Inter-examination reliability was excellent for AVC (κ = 0.94, ICC = 0.96) and MC (κ = 0.95, ICC = 0.90). Inter-examination variability was 12.7 ± 118.2 mm{sup 3} for AVC and 31.5 ± 219.2 mm{sup 3} for MC. Inter-observer reliability ranged from κ = 0.68 to κ = 0.92 for AVC and from κ = 0.20 to κ = 0.66 for MC. Inter-observer ICC was 0.94 for AVC and ranged from 0.56 to 0.97 for MC. Inter-observer variability ranged from -30.5 ± 252.0 mm{sup 3} to 84.0 ± 240.5 mm{sup 3} for AVC and from -95.2 ± 210.0 mm{sup 3} to 303.7 ± 501.6 mm{sup 3} for MC. AVC can be quantified with excellent reliability on ungated unenhanced low-dose chest CT, but manual detection of MC can be subject to substantial inter-observer variability. Lung cancer screening CT may be used for detection and quantification of cardiac valve calcifications. (orig.)

  14. Annual patterns in bacterioplankton community variability in a humic lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, A D; Jones, S E; Yannarell, A C; Graham, J M; Lauster, G H; Kratz, T K; Triplett, E W

    2004-11-01

    Bacterioplankton community composition (BCC) was monitored in a shallow humic lake in northern Wisconsin, USA, over 3 years using automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA). Comparison of ARISA profiles of bacterial communities over time indicated that BCC was highly variable on a seasonal and annual scale. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis indicated little similarity in BCC from year to year. Nevertheless, annual patterns in bacterioplankton community diversity were observed. Trends in bacterioplankton community diversity were correlated to annual patterns in community succession observed for phytoplankton and zooplankton populations, consistent with the notion that food web interactions affect bacterioplankton community structure in this humic lake. Bacterioplankton communities experience a dramatic drop in richness and abundance each year in early summer, concurrent with an increase in the abundance of both mixotrophic and heterotrophic flagellates. A second drop in richness, but not abundance, is observed each year in late summer, coinciding with an intense bloom of the nonphagotrophic dinoflagellate Peridinium limbatum. A relationship between bacterial community composition, size, and abundance and the population dynamics of Daphnia was also observed. The noted synchrony between these major population and species shifts suggests that linkages across trophic levels play a role in determining the annual time course of events for the microbial and metazoan components of the plankton.

  15. Inter-reader variability when applying the 2013 Fleischner guidelines for potential solitary subsolid lung nodules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, Alex; Ma, Mingming; Chou, Benjamin B; Tseng, Jeffrey R; Phan, Peter

    2015-10-01

    In 2013, the Fleischner Society published recommendations for managing subsolid pulmonary nodules. Inter-reader variability has not yet been defined and has potential implications for the ease and reproducibility of applying the guidelines to clinical practice. To evaluate inter-reader variability when applying the 2013 Fleischner guidelines for potential solitary subsolid lung nodules. Potential nodules were identified through a systematic retrospective review of CT studies that reported a ground-glass lesion. Three radiologists decided whether these lesions fit criteria of a subsolid nodule and thus merit application of the Fleischner Society guidelines, determined if a solid component was present, and measured each component in two dimensions. Final management recommendations were based on these intermediate decisions. Inter-reader variability for management was calculated and Fleiss' kappa was used to determine significance. Logistic regression and Fisher's exact test determined whether management was contingent on each intermediate decision. Forty-four nodules with mean diameter of 9.4 mm were evaluated by three radiologists. Final management recommendations were in agreement for 93 out of 132 cases (70.4%, kappa = 0.56). Inter-reader variability in management recommendation was contingent on disagreement over whether a pulmonary lesion fit criteria of a subsolid nodule for 24 cases (P reader variability when applying the 2013 Fleischner Society management recommendations. Significant contributors of variability include whether the potential lesions fit subsolid nodule criteria and whether a solid component is present. Measurement variability does not significantly affect the final management decisions. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2014.

  16. Longitudinal intra- and inter-individual variability in young swimmers' performance and determinant competition factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Estrela Morais

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to follow-up the intra- and inter-individual variability of young swimmers' performance and determinant factors over two competitive seasons. Thirty young swimmers (14 boys: 12.33±0.65 years-old; 16 girls: 11.15±0.55 years-old were followed-up throughout two consecutive seasons (seven evaluation moments. Performance (100m freestyle, anthropometric, kinematic, hydrodynamic and efficiency features were evaluated. A gender and skill-level effect was observed. Boys improved in a higher amount (% comparing to girls. Overall, swimmers in skill-level 2 (both genders presented a higher intra-individual variability. Performance and anthropometrics showed a significant inter-individual variability in most moments, but hydrodynamics, kinematics and efficiency did not. Within each skill-level hydrodynamics, kinematics and efficiency were the variables that showed a high inter-individual variability. As a gender and skill-level effect was noticed in an age-group of young swimmers, coaches and practitioners should put the focus in specific and customized training plans for each skill-level of swimmers.

  17. Inter-annual variations of CO2 observed by commercial airliner in the CONTRAIL project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawa, Yousuke; Machida, Toshinobu; Matsueda, Hidekazu; Niwa, Yosuke; Umezawa, Taku

    2016-04-01

    Since 2005, we have conducted an observation program for greenhouse gases using the passenger aircraft of the Japan Airlines named Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL). Over the past 10 years, successful operation of Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME) has delivered more than 6 million in-situ CO2 data from about 12000 flights between Japan and Europe, Australia, North America, or Asia. The large number of CME data enable us to well characterize spatial distributions and seasonal changes of CO2 in wide regions of the globe especially the Asia-Pacific regions. While the mean growth rates for the past 10 years were about 2 ppm/year, large growth rates of about 3 ppm/year were found in the wide latitudinal bands from 30S to 70N from the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2013. The multiyear data sets have the potential to help understand the global/regional CO2 budget. One good example is the significant inter-annual difference in CO2 vertical profiles observed over Singapore between October 2014 and October 2015, which is attributable to the massive biomass burnings in Indonesia in 2015.

  18. Dynamic Equilibrium Inter-annual Snow Modeling for Wyoming using Reconstructed Regional Atmospheric Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohara, N.; Johnson, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    The inland glacier retreat has often been considered as one of clearest evidences of the global warming last several decades. However, when we try to model the evolution of the inland inter-annual snow storage including glaciers using a standard energy and mass balance snow model, it is impossible to keep the snow storage constant under a constant climate condition. This study treats the inland glaciers as a dynamic equilibrium system that remains constant under static climate condition. We introduced a sub-grid scale parameterization that moves snow/ice from high elevation areas to valleys as the equilibrating factor of the system. This movement of snow/ice occurs by means of wind re-distribution, avalanches, and glaciation. The physically-based model of a dynamic equilibrium snow system at a regional scale was applied to the entire state of Wyoming for long-term simulation. The developed snow model, named RegSnow model, was coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the snow surface energy fluxes during the 33-year-long historical period for transient model calibration. The RegSnow model predicted that 82.2% of interannual snow and ice storage in Wyoming may disappear by 2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario based on the climate projection by CMIP5 GCMs.

  19. A procedure to derive intra-and inter-annual changes on vegetation from NDVI time series. A case study in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilabert, M. A; Martinez, B.; Melia, J.

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this work is to study the spatial patterns of vegetation activity over spain and its temporal variability throughout the period 1989-2002. A multi-resolution analysis (MRA) bases on the wavelet transform has been implemented on NDVI time series from the MEDOKADS database. The MRA decomposes the original signal as a sum of series associated with temporal scales. Specifically, the intra-annual series is processed to define several key features in relation with the vegetation penology. In contras, the inter-annual components of the signal is used to detect trends by means of a Mann-Kendall test and map the magnitude of the land-cover change. Finally, a comprehensive identification of the areas presenting a negative value of the magnitude of change is carried out to select those linked to land degradation processes. Results show a major presence of these areas the Southeast of Spain. (Author) 5 refs.

  20. Inter-individual variability and pattern recognition of surface electromyography in front crawl swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Jonas; Daly, Daniel; Deschamps, Kevin; Staes, Filip; Fernandes, Ricardo J

    2016-12-01

    Variability of electromyographic (EMG) recordings is a complex phenomenon rarely examined in swimming. Our purposes were to investigate inter-individual variability in muscle activation patterns during front crawl swimming and assess if there were clusters of sub patterns present. Bilateral muscle activity of rectus abdominis (RA) and deltoideus medialis (DM) was recorded using wireless surface EMG in 15 adult male competitive swimmers. The amplitude of the median EMG trial of six upper arm movement cycles was used for the inter-individual variability assessment, quantified with the coefficient of variation, coefficient of quartile variation, the variance ratio and mean deviation. Key features were selected based on qualitative and quantitative classification strategies to enter in a k-means cluster analysis to examine the presence of strong sub patterns. Such strong sub patterns were found when clustering in two, three and four clusters. Inter-individual variability in a group of highly skilled swimmers was higher compared to other cyclic movements which is in contrast to what has been reported in the previous 50years of EMG research in swimming. This leads to the conclusion that coaches should be careful in using overall reference EMG information to enhance the individual swimming technique of their athletes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate and the individual: inter-annual variation in the autumnal activity of the European badger (Meles meles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Noonan

    Full Text Available We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and 30cmTEMP (w = 0.557, while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999. ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE. In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI, likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a 'one size fits all' approach should not be applied to ecological responses.

  2. Inter-individual cognitive variability in children with Asperger’s syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Luz Gonzalez-Gadea

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Multiple studies have tried to establish the distinctive profile of individuals with Asperger’s syndrome (AS. However, recent reports suggest that adults with AS feature heterogeneous cognitive profiles. The present study explores inter-individual variability in children with AS through group comparison and multiple case series analysis. All participants completed an extended battery including measures of fluid and crystallized intelligence, executive functions, theory of mind, and classical neuropsychological tests. Significant group differences were found in theory of mind and other domains related to global information processing. However, the AS group showed high inter-individual variability (both sub- and supra-normal performance on most cognitive tasks. Furthermore, high fluid intelligence correlated with less general cognitive impairment, high cognitive flexibility, and speed motor processing. In light of these findings, we propose that children with AS are characterized by a distinct, uneven pattern of cognitive strengths and weaknesses.

  3. Studies on inter-speaker variability in speech and its application in automatic speech recognition

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Umesh

    2011-10-01

    In this paper, we give an overview of the problem of inter-speaker variability and its study in many diverse areas of speech signal processing. We first give an overview of vowel-normalization studies that minimize variations in the acoustic representation of vowel realizations by different speakers. We then describe the universal-warping approach to speaker normalization which unifies many of the vowel normalization approaches and also shows the relation between speech production, perception and auditory processing. We then address the problem of inter-speaker variability in automatic speech recognition (ASR) and describe techniques that are used to reduce these effects and thereby improve the performance of speaker-independent ASR systems.

  4. Inter-individual variability in optimal current direction for transcranial magnetic stimulation of the motor cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Daniela; Braet, Wouter; McAllister, Craig

    2007-01-01

    We evaluated inter-individual variability in optimal current direction for biphasic transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) of the motor cortex. Motor threshold for first dorsal interosseus was detected visually at eight coil orientations in 45 degrees increments. Each participant (n=13) completed...... two experimental sessions. One participant with low test-retest correlation (Pearson's rvisual detection of motor threshold was compared to EMG detection; motor thresholds were very similar and highly correlated (0.94-0.99). Similar with previous studies...

  5. Inter- and intra-observer variability in three grading systems for oral epithelial dysplasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakshmi Krishnan

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: The binary system of classification proved to have an overall better inter- and intra-observer agreement. This study also showed better intra-observer agreement in all the grading systems as well as in individual histopathological parameters. Defining the individual parameters more objectively with the reproducible structuring of the grading systems and training of the pathologists would help reduce the variability in diagnosing dysplasia.

  6. Non-invasive assessment of endothelial function. Intra and inter-observer variability

    OpenAIRE

    Sotomayor González,Arturo; Kostine,Andrea; Gómez-Flores,Jorge R; Márquez, Manlio F; Hermosillo,Antonio G; Verdejo París,Juan; Iturralde Torres,Pedro; Colin Lizalde,Luis; Nava Townsend,Santiago; Cárdenas, Manuel

    2006-01-01

    Background and objectives: Non-invasive evaluation of endothelial function with high resolution ultrasound has become a widely accepted tool in determination of high risk subjects for early atherosclerosis. Despite its simple appearance, ultrasonographic assessment of brachial artery changes, is technically challenging and has a significant learning curve. In the present study, we evaluate the intra and inter-observer variability in assessing peripheral endothelial function with high resoluti...

  7. Inter- and intra-manufacturer variability in pharmaceutical grades and lots of xanthan gum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Ankur; Fu, Shao; Boni, Riccardo L; Block, Lawrence H

    2010-12-01

    A pharmaceutical formulation typically contains one or more excipients in addition to the active pharmaceutical ingredient(s). Though excipients have been considered inert components of a formulation, variability in their properties has been shown to affect the performance of drug dosage forms and delivery systems. This study investigates the inter- and intra-manufacturer variability among different NF grades and lots of xanthan gum made by two manufacturers. As many formulators rely on compendial standards to monitor and control the variability of excipients, this study focuses on the adequacy of the NF specifications, in particular the viscosity specification, to discern the variability in solution properties of different pharmaceutical grades and lots of xanthan gum. All the grades and lots in this study were NF grade materials. Xanthan gum solutions were prepared in accordance with NF test methodology and were rheologically evaluated using a rotational rheometer. Both steady shear measurements and small amplitude oscillatory measurements were carried out on 1% w/w xanthan gum solutions. Results showed significant inter- and intra-manufacturer variability among the NF grades and lots of xanthan gum that was not reflected in the NF viscosity test specifications.

  8. A novel method for diagnosing seasonal to inter-annual surface ocean carbon dynamics from bottle data using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Sasse

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The ocean's role in modulating the observed 1–7 Pg C yr−1 inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate is an important, but poorly constrained process due to sparse spatio-temporal ocean carbon measurements. Here, we investigate and develop a non-linear empirical approach to predict inorganic CO2 concentrations (total carbon dioxide (CT and total alkalinity (AT in the global ocean mixed-layer from hydrographic properties (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nutrients. The benefit of this approach is that once the empirical relationship is established, it can be applied to hydrographic datasets that have better spatio-temporal coverage, and therefore provide an additional constraint to diagnose ocean carbon dynamics globally. Previous empirical approaches have employed multiple linear regressions (MLR, and relied on ad-hoc geographic and temporal partitioning of carbon data to constrain complex global carbon dynamics in the mixed-layer. Synthesising a new global CT/AT carbon bottle dataset consisting of ~33 000 measurements in the open ocean mixed-layer, we develop a neural network based approach to better constrain the non-linear carbon system. The approach classifies features in the global biogeochemical dataset based on their similarity and homogeneity in a self-organizing map (SOM; Kohonen, 1988. After the initial SOM analysis, which includes geographic constraints, we apply a local linear optimizer to the neural network which considerably enhances the predictive skill of the new approach. We call this new approach SOMLO, or self-organizing multiple linear output. Using independent bottle carbon data, we compare a traditional MLR analysis to our SOMLO approach to capture the spatial CT and AT distributions. We find the SOMLO approach improves predictive skill globally by 19% for

  9. Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

    2016-06-01

    Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

  10. Inter-observer variability within BI-RADS and RANZCR mammographic density assessment schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damases, Christine N.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; McEntee, Mark F.

    2016-03-01

    This study compares variability associated with two visual mammographic density (MD) assessment methods using two separate samples of radiologists. The image test-set comprised of images obtained from 20 women (age 42-89 years). The images were assessed for their MD by twenty American Board of Radiology (ABR) examiners and twenty-six radiologists registered with the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists (RANZCR). Images were assessed using the same technology and conditions, however the ABR radiologists used the BI-RADS and the RANZCR radiologists used the RANZCR breast density synoptic. Both scales use a 4-point assessment. The images were then grouped as low- and high-density; low including BIRADS 1 and 2 or RANZCR 1 and 2 and high including BI-RADS 3 and 4 or RANZCR 3 and 4. Four-point BI-RADS and RANZCR showed no or negligible correlation (ρ=-0.029 p<0.859). The average inter-observer agreement on the BI-RADS scale had a Kappa of 0.565; [95% CI = 0.519 - 0.610], and ranged between 0.328-0.669 while the inter-observer agreement using the RANZCR scale had a Kappa of 0.360; [95% CI = 0.308 - 0.412] and a range of 0.078-0.499. Our findings show a wider range of inter-observer variability among RANZCR registered radiologists than the ABR examiners.

  11. Inter-reader variability in follicular lymphoma grading: Conventional and digital reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozanski, Gerard; Pennell, Michael; Shana'ah, Arwa; Zhao, Weiqiang; Gewirtz, Amy; Racke, Frederick; Hsi, Eric; Simpson, Sabrina; Mosse, Claudio; Alam, Shadia; Swierczynski, Sharon; Hasserjian, Robert P; Gurcan, Metin N

    2013-01-01

    Pathologists grade follicular lymphoma (FL) cases by selecting 10, random high power fields (HPFs), counting the number of centroblasts (CBs) in these HPFs under the microscope and then calculating the average CB count for the whole slide. Previous studies have demonstrated that there is high inter-reader variability among pathologists using this methodology in grading. The objective of this study was to explore if newly available digital reading technologies can reduce inter-reader variability. IN THIS STUDY, WE CONSIDERED THREE DIFFERENT READING CONDITIONS (RCS) IN GRADING FL: (1) Conventional (glass-slide based) to establish the baseline, (2) digital whole slide viewing, (3) digital whole slide viewing with selected HPFs. Six board-certified pathologists from five different institutions read 17 FL slides in these three different RCs. Although there was relative poor consensus in conventional reading, with lack of consensus in 41.2% of cases, which was similar to previously reported studies; we found that digital reading with pre-selected fields improved the inter-reader agreement, with only 5.9% lacking consensus among pathologists. Digital whole slide RC resulted in the worst concordance among pathologists while digital whole slide reading selected HPFs improved the concordance. Further studies are underway to determine if this performance can be sustained with a larger dataset and our automated HPF and CB detection algorithms can be employed to further improve the concordance.

  12. Inter-reader variability in follicular lymphoma grading: Conventional and digital reading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard Lozanski

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Pathologists grade follicular lymphoma (FL cases by selecting 10, random high power fields (HPFs, counting the number of centroblasts (CBs in these HPFs under the microscope and then calculating the average CB count for the whole slide. Previous studies have demonstrated that there is high inter-reader variability among pathologists using this methodology in grading. Aims: The objective of this study was to explore if newly available digital reading technologies can reduce inter-reader variability. Settings and Design: In this study, we considered three different reading conditions (RCs in grading FL: (1 Conventional (glass-slide based to establish the baseline, (2 digital whole slide viewing, (3 digital whole slide viewing with selected HPFs. Six board-certified pathologists from five different institutions read 17 FL slides in these three different RCs. Results: Although there was relative poor consensus in conventional reading, with lack of consensus in 41.2% of cases, which was similar to previously reported studies; we found that digital reading with pre-selected fields improved the inter-reader agreement, with only 5.9% lacking consensus among pathologists. Conclusions: Digital whole slide RC resulted in the worst concordance among pathologists while digital whole slide reading selected HPFs improved the concordance. Further studies are underway to determine if this performance can be sustained with a larger dataset and our automated HPF and CB detection algorithms can be employed to further improve the concordance.

  13. Integrated control of annual weeds by inter-row hoeing and intra-row herbicide treatment in spring oilseed rape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilsson, Anders

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this project is to develop an integrated weed control strategy against annual weeds in spring oilseed rape by means of a combined mechanical and chemical weed control which will be performed concurrently and separately. The project encompasses field experiments in which different combinations of inter-row hoeing and intra-row herbicide treatments will be evaluated and compared to conventional weed control treatments with broadcast spraying of herbicides, and experiments in which an implement for concurrent inter-row hoeing and intra-row herbicide treatment will be refined and evaluated. In 2012, an implement for intra-row spraying combined with row hoeing was developed and evaluated in two field experiments in spring oilseed rape in the southern part of Sweden. The effects of inter-row hoeing, intra row spraying, and combination of the two methods were compared with conventional broadcast spraying. Preliminary results showed that the best weed control effects were obtained with the combination of inter-row hoeing and intra-row spraying in both experiments. Regarding crop yield, the yield was significantly higher in the combined treatment in one of the experiments while no effects on the yields were obtained in the other experiment. We envisage that the inter-row hoeing and intra-row herbicide treatment will diminish the overall use of herbicides to less than one third in comparison with the more conventional chemical weed control methods, while having the same weed control effect.

  14. Southern Ocean SST Variability and Its Relationship with ENSO on Inter-Decadal Time Scales

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Li; DU Yan; ZHANG Lan

    2013-01-01

    Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Hemisphere (0°-60°S).In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans,there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction.In the South Pacific Ocean,a meridional tripole structure emerges,whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability.The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer.On the inter-decadal time scales,the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980.No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean.Interestingly,despite the reduced amplitude,the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with El Ni(n)o and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are enhanced after 1979/1980.The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980.These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southem Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s.The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.

  15. Chronopharmacological strategies: Intra- and inter-individual variability of molecular clock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohdo, Shigehiro; Koyanagi, Satoru; Matsunaga, Naoya

    2010-07-31

    In all living organisms, one of the most indispensable biological functions is the circadian clock (suprachiasmatic nuclei; SCN), which acts like a multifunction timer to regulate homeostatic systems such as sleep and activity, hormone levels, appetite, and other bodily functions with 24h cycles. Circadian rhythms regulate diverse physiologic processes, including homeostatic functions of steroid hormones and their receptors. Perturbations of these rhythms are associated with pathogenic conditions such as depression, diabetes and cancer. Clock genes are identified as the genes that ultimately control a vast array of circadian rhythms in physiology and behavior. Clock gene regulates several diseases such as cancer, metabolic syndrome and sleep etc. CLOCK mutation affects the expression of rhythmic genes in wild-type (WT) tissue, but also affects that of non-rhythmic genes. On the other hand, the change of the drug pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic (PK/PD) parameters are influenced by not only inter-individual variability but also intra-individual variabilities of medications. Identification of a rhythmic marker for selecting dosing time will lead to improved progress and diffusion of chronopharmacotherapy. The mechanisms underlying chronopharmacological findings should be clarified from viewpoint of clock genes. On the other hand, several drugs have an effect on molecular clock. Thus, the knowledge of intra- and inter-individual variability of molecular clock should be applied for the clinical practice. Therefore, we introduce the regulatory system of biological rhythm from viewpoints of clock genes and the possibility of pharmacotherapy based on the intra- and inter-individual variability of clock genes.

  16. The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, X. H.; Evans, J. P.; McCabe, M. F.

    2014-02-01

    strengthening of the second mechanism. That is, the second mechanism is stronger in a drought year compared to a normal year and this difference is larger than for the first mechanism. When both mechanisms are active, the second mechanism tends to dominate across the model domain, particularly during the 2002 drought period. The introduction of observed inter-annual variations in albedo produces an enhancement of the first mechanism and a weakening of the second mechanism during the onset of the drought.

  17. The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Xianhong

    2013-05-05

    strengthening of the second mechanism. That is, the second mechanism is stronger in a drought year compared to a normal year and this difference is larger than for the first mechanism. When both mechanisms are active, the second mechanism tends to dominate across the model domain, particularly during the 2002 drought period. The introduction of observed inter-annual variations in albedo produces an enhancement of the first mechanism and a weakening of the second mechanism during the onset of the drought. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  18. Evaluating the effects of China's pollution control on inter-annual trends and uncertainties of atmospheric mercury emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available China's atmospheric mercury (Hg emissions of anthropogenic origin have been effectively restrained through the national policy of air pollution control. Improved methods based on available field measurements are developed to quantify the benefits of Hg abatement through various emission control measures. Those measures include increased use of flue gas desulfurization (FGD and selective catalyst reduction (SCR systems for power sector, precalciners with fabric filter (FF for cement production, machinery coking with electrostatic precipitator (ESP for iron and steel production, and advanced manufacturing technologies for nonferrous metal smelting. Declining trends in emissions factors for those sources are revealed, leading to a much slower growth of national total Hg emissions than that of energy and economy, from 679 in 2005 to 750 metric tons (t in 2012. In particular, nearly half of emissions from the above-mentioned four types of sources are expected to be reduced in 2012, attributed to expansion of technologies with high energy efficiencies and air pollutant removal rates after 2005. The speciation of Hg emissions keeps stable for recent years, with the mass fractions of around 55, 39 and 6% for Hg0, Hg2+ and Hgp, respectively. The lower estimate of Hg emissions than previous inventories is supported by limited chemistry simulation work, but middle-to-long term observation on ambient Hg levels is further needed to justify the inter-annual trends of estimated Hg emissions. With improved implementation of emission controls and energy saving, 23% reduction in annual Hg emissions for the most optimistic case in 2030 is expected compared to 2012, with total emissions below 600 t. While Hg emissions are evaluated to be gradually constrained, increased uncertainties are quantified with Monte-Carlo simulation for recent years, particularly for power and certain industrial sources. The uncertainty of Hg emissions from coal-fired power plants, as an

  19. Evaluating the effects of China's pollution control on inter-annual trends and uncertainties of atmospheric mercury emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.; Zhong, H.; Zhang, J.; Nielsen, C. P.

    2014-10-01

    China's atmospheric mercury (Hg) emissions of anthropogenic origin have been effectively restrained through the national policy of air pollution control. Improved methods based on available field measurements are developed to quantify the benefits of Hg abatement through various emission control measures. Those measures include increased use of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and selective catalyst reduction (SCR) systems for power sector, precalciners with fabric filter (FF) for cement production, machinery coking with electrostatic precipitator (ESP) for iron and steel production, and advanced manufacturing technologies for nonferrous metal smelting. Declining trends in emissions factors for those sources are revealed, leading to a much slower growth of national total Hg emissions than that of energy and economy, from 679 in 2005 to 750 metric tons (t) in 2012. In particular, nearly half of emissions from the above-mentioned four types of sources are expected to be reduced in 2012, attributed to expansion of technologies with high energy efficiencies and air pollutant removal rates after 2005. The speciation of Hg emissions keeps stable for recent years, with the mass fractions of around 55, 39 and 6% for Hg0, Hg2+ and Hgp, respectively. The lower estimate of Hg emissions than previous inventories is supported by limited chemistry simulation work, but middle-to-long term observation on ambient Hg levels is further needed to justify the inter-annual trends of estimated Hg emissions. With improved implementation of emission controls and energy saving, 23% reduction in annual Hg emissions for the most optimistic case in 2030 is expected compared to 2012, with total emissions below 600 t. While Hg emissions are evaluated to be gradually constrained, increased uncertainties are quantified with Monte-Carlo simulation for recent years, particularly for power and certain industrial sources. The uncertainty of Hg emissions from coal-fired power plants, as an example

  20. Intra and inter populational genetic variability in Maytenus ilicifolia Mart. ex Reiss. 1861, through RAPD markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AJ. Mossi

    Full Text Available Maytenus ilicifolia is a medicinal plant largely used in the South Brazilian folk medicine. The aim of this study was to quantify the intra and inter populational genetic variability in three populations of M. ilicifolia, focusing on the genetic conservation of this species, which has been threatened by anthropic action. RAPD (Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA markers were used to analyze 30 plants of each of the three populations collected in the Alto Uruguai Gaúcho region. Fourteen selected primers generated a total of 158 bands, 71.5% of which were polymorphic. The comparison of Jaccard’s distances showed that the intra populational variation was higher than the inter populational variability, and cluster analysis allowed the separation of the three populations. Just 7.6% of the bands were specific of at least two populations. Data indicate that the analyzed M. ilicifolia populations represent a single genetic pool, and therefore any of the population thoroughly can represent the overall genetic variability of the species in the sampled region.

  1. Inter-Individual Variability in Human Response to Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation, Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rocke, David [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2016-08-01

    In order to investigate inter-individual variability in response to low-dose ionizing radiation, we are working with three models, 1) in-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we have a realistic model, but with few subjects, all from a previous project, 2) ex-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we also have a realistic model, though with the limitations involved in keeping skin pieces alive in media, and 3) MatTek EpiDermFT skin plugs, which provides a more realistic model than cell lines, which is more controllable than human samples.

  2. Inter- and intrareader variability in the interpretation of two radiographic classification systems for juvenile rheumatoid arthritis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doria, Andrea S.; Castro, Claudio C. de; Sernik, Renato A.; Vitule, Luis F.; Arantes, Paula R.; Lucato, Leandro; Germano, Marco A.N.; Cerri, Giovanni G. [Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Heart Institute (InCor) and Radiology Institute (InRad), Hospital das Clinicas da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kiss, Maria Helena B. [Division of Rheumatology, Children' s Institute, Hospital das Clinicas da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Silva, Carlos H.M. [Division of Rheumatology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade Federal de Uberlandia MG, Uberlandia (Brazil); Zerbini, Cristiano A.F. [Division of Rheumatology, Hospital Heliopolis, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2003-10-01

    To evaluate the inter- and intrareader variability for interpretation of a modified Larsen's radiographic classification system for juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA) focused on osteochondral lesions and a conventional Larsen's classification system, compared to a reference MR scoring system of corresponding images. Seventy-five radiographs of 60 children with JRA, performed within a short interval of time from the MR examinations, were independently evaluated by three experienced radiologists, three diagnostic imaging residents and three rheumatologists, in two separate sessions, according to the two different classification methods, blinded to the corresponding MR images. The inter- and intrareader concordance rates between the two radiographic classification systems and the MR-related radiographs were respectively poor and poor/moderate. The interobserver range of weighted kappa values for the conventional and the modified Larsen's system respectively was 0.25-0.37 vs 0.19-0.39 for radiologists, 0.25-0.37 vs 0.18-0.30 for residents and 0.19-0.51 vs 0.17-0.29 for rheumatologists. The intrareader rate ranged from 0.17-0.55 for radiologists, 0.2-0.56 for residents, and 0.14-0.59 for rheumatologists. Although the proposal of a new radiographic classification system for JRA focused on osteochondral abnormalities sounds promising, the low inter- and intrareader concordance rates with an MR-related radiographic system makes the clinical applicability of such a radiographic system less suitable. (orig.)

  3. Inter- and Intra-individual Variability in the Pharmacokinetics of Agomelatine Tablets in Chinese Healthy Male Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X-l; Du, A-h; Zhang, D; Meng, L-j; Liu, M; Zhang, L-n; Zhao, H-n; Liu, H-c

    2015-10-01

    Agomelatine is an antidepressant with a unique action mechanism differing from conventional antidepressants. The high inter- and intra-individual variability of agomelatine was previously reported, but no exact data values about the inter- and intra-individual variability in AUC and Cmax were mentioned. The current study aimed to determine and evaluate the inter- and intra-individual variability in AUC and Cmax of agomelatine tablets in Chinese healthy male subjects, providing useful information for designing bioequivalence studies of agomelatine. Each of 12 Chinese healthy male subjects received a 25-mg agomelatine tablet on 2 separate periods, and plasma samples were collected up to 24 h after dose and analyzed for agomelatine. Inter- and intra-individual variability in the pharmacokinetic parameters (Cmax, AUC0-t and AUC0-∞) of agomelatine was assessed. High variations in the plasma concentrations of agomelatine could be observed at each sampling time between the different subjects and in one subject on different periods. The inter-individual CVs of Cmax, AUC0-t and AUC0-∞ were 102.20%, 131.74% and 130.59%, respectively. The intra-individual CVs of Cmax, AUC0-t and AUC0-∞ were 84.34%, 49.61% and 50.83%, respectively. The results showed high inter- and intra-individual variability in the pharmacokinetics of agomelatine in Chinese healthy male subjects, and the intra-individual variability at CV>80% should be considered in the design of bioequivalence studies.

  4. Seasonal and Inter-Annual Analysis of Chlorophyll-a and Inherent Optical Properties from Satellite Observations in the Inner and Mid-Shelves of the South of Buenos Aires Province (Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana L. Delgado

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to describe and understand the seasonal and inter-annual physical and biological dynamics of the inner and mid shelves of the Southwestern Buenos Aires Province (Argentina. We used chlorophyll-a (chl-a concentrations and inherent optical properties (IOPs, derived from ocean color products between 2002 and 2010, as a proxy for the physical and biological parameters of interest. This study focuses on the absorption by phytoplankton, aph(443, particulate backscattering, bbp(443, and absorption due to dissolved and particulate detrital matter, adg(443, and chl-a derived from a multiband quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA. A regionalization based on the coefficient of variation and the Census X-11 method were applied to define regions and to analyze the inter-annual and seasonal variability of the ocean color parameters, with regards to climate variability. The coastal zone presents the highest values of chl-a with two maxima in winter and autumn, while the mid-shelf shows a strong spring chl-a maximum. After 2009, all parameters under study shifted their seasonality and their magnitude changed over the entire area. In the coastal zone, mean values of aph(443 and bbp(443 increased, while in the mid-shelf, chl-a and aph(443 decreased. The observed inter-annual and seasonal behavior of the parameters is tightly related to climate variability of the study area.

  5. Characteristics and inter-annual changes in temperature, salinity and density distribution in the Gulf of Riga

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maris Skudra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Available CTD profiles from the Gulf of Riga (May–August, 1993–2012 were analyzed to study inter-annual and long-term changes in temperature, salinity and density in relation to river runoff and atmospheric forcing (e.g. Baltic Sea Index. To describe temporal changes in vertical stratification, the upper mixed layer (UML and deep layer (DL parameters were estimated. On average the UML depth increases from 8.7 m in May to 9.0, 11.5 and 13.7 m in June, July and August, respectively, and the UML temperature increases from 8.0°C to 12.5, 18.7 and 18.6°C (May, June, July and August while the UML salinity increases from 4.90 g kg−1 to 5.14, 5.28 and 5.38 g kg−1, respectively. High correlation (r = −0.82 was found between the inter-annual changes in river runoff (spring and mean salinity in the UML in August as well as between DL mean salinity (r = 0.88 and density (r = 0.84 in the Irbe Strait and DL mean salinity and density in the Gulf of Riga. Inter-annual changes in the UML depth as well as in DL salinity and density had a significant correlation with the changes in Baltic Sea Index. The strongest stratification (August can be observed in the years with the highest UML temperature and the highest river run-off in spring. We suggest that the predicted increase in water temperature and changes in river run-off due to the climate change would result in faster development of the seasonal thermocline in spring and stronger vertical stratification in summer.

  6. Analysis of caries experience taking inter-observer bias and variability into account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesaffre, E; Mwalili, S M; Declerck, D

    2004-12-01

    In larger oral health surveys, clinical measurements are often obtained using several examiners. This raises the issue of inter-observer variability in measurement. Often, the problem is dealt with by reporting kappa values obtained in a calibration exercise. In the present study, the limitations of this statistic are presented, and an alternative, based on a Bayesian approach, is proposed. When the alternative approach was applied to caries experience data obtained in an oral health screening survey in seven-year-old Flemish children (Signal Tandmobiel study), it could be ruled out that the observed geographic East-West gradient was due to bias induced by variability in scoring of the different dental examiners involved. The proposed method offers an opportunity to refine existing analytical approaches and is relevant to any health outcome study.

  7. Analysis of inter - population variability Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. using morphometric markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lučić Aleksandar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is analysis of inter-population variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. using morphometric parameters of cones and seedlings originating from seven populations in Serbia.The analysis of 1960 cones and their seeds was performed as well as the analysis of morphometric parameters of seedlings (height and root neck diameter that were produced from this seed. Based on the obtained results the significant differences were noticed in the values of analyzed characters for each population separately. The biological similarity or distance regarding the analyzed characters showed a significant population differentiation. By presenting the preliminary knowledge on the genetic variability of the study populations, the reported results will contribute to better understanding of the significance of the analyzed characters in the population differentiation. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR 43007

  8. Annual parallax measurements of a Mira variable star, U Lyncis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamezaki, Tatsuya; Nakagawa, Akiharu; Omodaka, Toshihiro; Handa, Toshihiro; Inoue, Kan-ichiro; Kurayama, Tomoharu; Kobayashi, Hideyuki; Nagayama, Takumi; Ueno, Yuji

    2016-10-01

    We have measured the annual parallax of the water maser around a Mira star, U Lyncis (U Lyn) with VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry (VERA). The value of the parallax is 1.27 ± 0.06 mas, corresponding to a distance of 786^{+40}_{-36}pc. This is the first VLBI measurement of the parallax of U Lyn. We obtained the period and the apparent magnitude of U Lyn based on near-infrared observations with the Kagoshima University 1 m telescope. The period and the mean magnitude of the K' band are 437.9 day and +1.15 ± 0.09 mag, respectively. Using our measured parallax and period, we find that the location of U Lyn on the period-luminosity plane is consistent with its nature as a Mira variable fundamental mode pulsator. Also, we estimated the distance using the period-luminosity relationship, our period and apparent magnitude and this gave a difference of about 100 pc between our parallactic distance and the distance estimated by using the period-luminosity relationship. We estimated the luminosity, radius, and mass of U Lyn to be 10100 ± 420 L⊙, 391 ± 34 R⊙, and 1.9 ± 0.7 M⊙, respectively. We found 50 water maser spots with a distribution ˜ 13 au around the star and the motion implies the existence of an outflow.

  9. Measurement of transplanted pancreatic volume using computed tomography: reliability by intra- and inter-observer variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundqvist, Eva; Segelsjoe, Monica; Magnusson, Anders [Uppsala Univ., Dept. of Radiology, Oncology and Radiation Science, Section of Radiology, Uppsala (Sweden)], E-mail: eva.lundqvist.8954@student.uu.se; Andersson, Anna; Biglarnia, Ali-Reza [Dept. of Surgical Sciences, Section of Transplantation Surgery, Uppsala Univ. Hospital, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2012-11-15

    Background Unlike other solid organ transplants, pancreas allografts can undergo a substantial decrease in baseline volume after transplantation. This phenomenon has not been well characterized, as there are insufficient data on reliable and reproducible volume assessments. We hypothesized that characterization of pancreatic volume by means of computed tomography (CT) could be a useful method for clinical follow-up in pancreas transplant patients. Purpose To evaluate the feasibility and reliability of pancreatic volume assessment using CT scan in transplanted patients. Material and Methods CT examinations were performed on 21 consecutive patients undergoing pancreas transplantation. Volume measurements were carried out by two observers tracing the pancreatic contours in all slices. The observers performed the measurements twice for each patient. Differences in volume measurement were used to evaluate intra- and inter-observer variability. Results The intra-observer variability for the pancreatic volume measurements of Observers 1 and 2 was found to be in almost perfect agreement, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.90 (0.77-0.96) and 0.99 (0.98-1.0), respectively. Regarding inter-observer validity, the ICCs for the first and second measurements were 0.90 (range, 0.77-0.96) and 0.95 (range, 0.85-0.98), respectively. Conclusion CT volumetry is a reliable and reproducible method for measurement of transplanted pancreatic volume.

  10. Assessing inter-sensor variability and sensible heat flux derivation accuracy for a large aperture scintillometer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rambikur, Evan H; Chávez, José L

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy in determining sensible heat flux (H) of three Kipp and Zonen large aperture scintillometers (LAS) was evaluated with reference to an eddy covariance (EC) system over relatively flat and uniform grassland near Timpas (CO, USA). Other tests have revealed inherent variability between Kipp and Zonen LAS units and bias to overestimate H. Average H fluxes were compared between LAS units and between LAS and EC. Despite good correlation, inter-LAS biases in H were found between 6% and 13% in terms of the linear regression slope. Physical misalignment was observed to result in increased scatter and bias between H solutions of a well-aligned and poorly-aligned LAS unit. Comparison of LAS and EC H showed little bias for one LAS unit, while the other two units overestimated EC H by more than 10%. A detector alignment issue may have caused the inter-LAS variability, supported by the observation in this study of differing power requirements between LAS units. It is possible that the LAS physical misalignment may have caused edge-of-beam signal noise as well as vulnerability to signal noise from wind-induced vibrations, both having an impact on the solution of H. In addition, there were some uncertainties in the solutions of H from the LAS and EC instruments, including lack of energy balance closure with the EC unit. However, the results obtained do not show clear evidence of inherent bias for the Kipp and Zonen LAS to overestimate H as found in other studies.

  11. Thyroid Ultrasound: Change of Inter-observer Variability and Diagnostic Performance after Training

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    Moon, Hee Jung; Kim, Eun Kyung; Kwak, Jin Young [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jeong Seon [Hanyang University Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-03-15

    To investigate and compare inter-observer variability and diagnostic performance of thyroid ultrasound (US) between a faculty member and observing residents. From October 2007 to June 2009, 18 residents underwent training in thyroid US section. Group 1 included 8 residents that were trained for the first time and group 2 included 10 residents that were trained for the second time. US features of nodules were recorded according to the composition, echogenicity, margin, calcifications, shape, and final assessment by a faculty member and residents, respectively. Following a discussion, a faculty member performed fine needle aspiration. Then, the inter-observer variability and diagnostic performance between a faculty member and residents were investigated and compared for US. In group 1, agreement for composition in resident 1, calcification for residents 5 and 6, and shape for resident 4 were slight, moderate, moderate, and moderate, respectively. In group 2, agreement for composition in residents 1 and 10 were moderate. Substantial or greater agreement was observed more frequently in group 2 than 1. The diagnostic performances for both the faculty and residents were high and not statistically different. Agreement for US features between a faculty and residents as well as diagnostic performance were high. Moreover, diagnostic performance of residents that underwent training a second time of training was higher than residents that underwent training only once

  12. Modeling inter-subject variability in fMRI activation location: A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.; Nee, Derek E.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The aim of this work is to develop a spatial model for multi-subject fMRI data. There has been extensive work on univariate modeling of each voxel for single and multi-subject data, some work on spatial modeling of single-subject data, and some recent work on spatial modeling of multi-subject data. However, there has been no work on spatial models that explicitly account for inter-subject variability in activation locations. In this work, we use the idea of activation centers and model the inter-subject variability in activation locations directly. Our model is specified in a Bayesian hierarchical frame work which allows us to draw inferences at all levels: the population level, the individual level and the voxel level. We use Gaussian mixtures for the probability that an individual has a particular activation. This helps answer an important question which is not addressed by any of the previous methods: What proportion of subjects had a significant activity in a given region. Our approach incorporates the unknown number of mixture components into the model as a parameter whose posterior distribution is estimated by reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We demonstrate our method with a fMRI study of resolving proactive interference and show dramatically better precision of localization with our method relative to the standard mass-univariate method. Although we are motivated by fMRI data, this model could easily be modified to handle other types of imaging data. PMID:19210732

  13. Transferability and inter-laboratory variability assessment of the in vitro bovine oocyte fertilization test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessaro, Irene; Modina, Silvia C; Crotti, Gabriella; Franciosi, Federica; Colleoni, Silvia; Lodde, Valentina; Galli, Cesare; Lazzari, Giovanna; Luciano, Alberto M

    2015-01-01

    The dramatic increase in the number of animals required for reproductive toxicity testing imposes the validation of alternative methods to reduce the use of laboratory animals. As we previously demonstrated for in vitro maturation test of bovine oocytes, the present study describes the transferability assessment and the inter-laboratory variability of an in vitro test able to identify chemical effects during the process of bovine oocyte fertilization. Eight chemicals with well-known toxic properties (benzo[a]pyrene, busulfan, cadmium chloride, cycloheximide, diethylstilbestrol, ketoconazole, methylacetoacetate, mifepristone/RU-486) were tested in two well-trained laboratories. The statistical analysis demonstrated no differences in the EC50 values for each chemical in within (inter-runs) and in between-laboratory variability of the proposed test. We therefore conclude that the bovine in vitro fertilization test could advance toward the validation process as alternative in vitro method and become part of an integrated testing strategy in order to predict chemical hazards on mammalian fertility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wilkinson

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The carbon balance of an 80-yr-old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Great Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999–2010. The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP was 486 g C m−2 yr−1 (95% CI of ±73 g C m−2 yr−1, and this was partitioned into a gross primary productivity (GPP of 2034 ± 145 g C m−2 yr−1, over a 165 (±6 day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, Reco of 1548 ± 122 g C m−2 yr−1. Although the maximum variation of NEP between years was large (333 g C m−2 yr−1, the ratio of Reco/GPP remained relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI. Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular weather events, such as low summer solar radiation and low soil moisture content (values below 30% by volume. The European-wide heat wave and drought of 2003 did not reduce the NEP of this woodland because of good water supply from the surface-water gley soil. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p < 0.001 was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP, which modified the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO2 uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO2 uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days respectively, annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these two years. Inter-annual variation in

  15. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) and monthly and inter annual regional forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.; Sloman, L.

    2015-12-01

    By exploiting the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, GCM's can generate a statistical ensemble of future states in which the high frequency "weather" is treated as a driving noise. Following Hasselman, 1976, this has lead to stochastic models that directly generate the noise, and model the low frequencies using systems of integer ordered linear ordinary differential equations, the most well known are the linear inverse models (LIM). These have been presented as a benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast. Using the LIM, hindcast skills comparable to and sometimes even better than the skill of (coupled) Global Circulation Models (GCM's) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Nevertheless, the short range exponential temporal decorrelations implicit in the LIM models are unrealistic (the true decorrelations are closer to long range power laws), and - as a consequence - the useful limit to the forecast horizon is roughly one year: it enormously underestimates the memory of the system. In presentation, we make a scaling analogue of the LIM: ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) that exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and consequently, make use of the long history dependence of the data to improve the skill. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5º x 5º regions on the planet using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as a reference datasets. As a first step, we removed the anthropogenic component of each time series based on its sensitivity to equivalent CO2 concentration for the last 130 years, the residues are our estimates of the natural variability that SLIMM predicts. This residues were treated as fractional Gaussian noise processes with scaling exponent H between -0.5 and 0. The value of H for each grid-point can be obtained directly from the data. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we

  16. Annual and spatial variability in gains of body weight in

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukema, J.J.; Cadée, G.C.A.; Dekker, R.; Philippart, C.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The present paper reports on the results of a long-term field study on the simultaneous influence of 2 environmental factors (temperature and food supply) on annual growth rates in the tellinid bivalve Macoma balthica. For > 30 y (1978–2009) we monitored twice-annually the weight changes of soft par

  17. Factors controlling inter-catchment variation of mean transit time with consideration of temporal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wenchao; Yamanaka, Tsutomu

    2016-03-01

    The catchment transit time, a lumped descriptor reflecting both time scale and spatial structure of catchment hydrology can provide useful insights into chemical/nuclear pollution risks within a catchment. Despite its importance, factors controlling spatial variation of mean transit time (MTT) are not yet well understood. In this study, we estimated time-variant MTTs for about ten years (2003-2012) in five mesoscale sub-catchments of the Fuji River catchment, central Japan, to establish the factors controlling their inter-catchment variation with consideration of temporal variability. For this purpose, we employed a lumped hydrological model that was calibrated and validated by hydrometric and isotopic tracer observations. Temporal variation patterns of estimated MTT were similar in all sub-catchments, but with differing amplitudes. Inter-catchment variation of MTT was greater in dry periods than wet periods, suggesting spatial variation of MTT is controlled by water 'stock' rather than by 'flow'. Although the long-term average MTT (LAMTT) in each catchment was correlated with mean slope, coverage of forest (or conversely, other land use types), coverage of sand-shale conglomerate, and groundwater storage, the multiple linear regression revealed that inter-catchment variation of LAMTT is principally controlled by the amount of groundwater storage. This is smaller in mountainous areas covered mostly by forests and greater in plain areas with less forest coverage and smaller slope. This study highlights the topographic control of MTT via groundwater storage, which might be a more important factor in mesoscale catchments, including both mountains and plains, rather than in smaller catchments dominated by mountainous topography.

  18. Quantifying inter-laboratory variability in stable isotope analysis of ancient skeletal remains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Pestle

    Full Text Available Over the past forty years, stable isotope analysis of bone (and tooth collagen and hydroxyapatite has become a mainstay of archaeological and paleoanthropological reconstructions of paleodiet and paleoenvironment. Despite this method's frequent use across anthropological subdisciplines (and beyond, the present work represents the first attempt at gauging the effects of inter-laboratory variability engendered by differences in a sample preparation, and b analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration. Replicate analyses of a 14C-dated ancient human bone by twenty-one archaeological and paleoecological stable isotope laboratories revealed significant inter-laboratory isotopic variation for both collagen and carbonate. For bone collagen, we found a sizeable range of 1.8‰ for δ13Ccol and 1.9‰ for δ15Ncol among laboratories, but an interpretatively insignificant average pairwise difference of 0.2‰ and 0.4‰ for δ13Ccol and δ15Ncol respectively. For bone hydroxyapatite the observed range increased to a troublingly large 3.5‰ for δ13Cap and 6.7‰ for δ18Oap, with average pairwise differences of 0.6‰ for δ13Cap and a disquieting 2.0‰ for δ18Oap. In order to assess the effects of preparation versus analysis on isotopic variability among laboratories, a subset of the samples prepared by the participating laboratories were analyzed a second time on the same instrument. Based on this duplicate analysis, it was determined that roughly half of the isotopic variability among laboratories could be attributed to differences in sample preparation, with the other half resulting from differences in analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration. These findings have serious implications for choices made in the preparation and extraction of target biomolecules, the comparison of results obtained from different laboratories, and the interpretation of small differences in bone collagen and hydroxyapatite

  19. Quantifying inter-laboratory variability in stable isotope analysis of ancient skeletal remains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestle, William J; Crowley, Brooke E; Weirauch, Matthew T

    2014-01-01

    Over the past forty years, stable isotope analysis of bone (and tooth) collagen and hydroxyapatite has become a mainstay of archaeological and paleoanthropological reconstructions of paleodiet and paleoenvironment. Despite this method's frequent use across anthropological subdisciplines (and beyond), the present work represents the first attempt at gauging the effects of inter-laboratory variability engendered by differences in a) sample preparation, and b) analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration). Replicate analyses of a 14C-dated ancient human bone by twenty-one archaeological and paleoecological stable isotope laboratories revealed significant inter-laboratory isotopic variation for both collagen and carbonate. For bone collagen, we found a sizeable range of 1.8‰ for δ13Ccol and 1.9‰ for δ15Ncol among laboratories, but an interpretatively insignificant average pairwise difference of 0.2‰ and 0.4‰ for δ13Ccol and δ15Ncol respectively. For bone hydroxyapatite the observed range increased to a troublingly large 3.5‰ for δ13Cap and 6.7‰ for δ18Oap, with average pairwise differences of 0.6‰ for δ13Cap and a disquieting 2.0‰ for δ18Oap. In order to assess the effects of preparation versus analysis on isotopic variability among laboratories, a subset of the samples prepared by the participating laboratories were analyzed a second time on the same instrument. Based on this duplicate analysis, it was determined that roughly half of the isotopic variability among laboratories could be attributed to differences in sample preparation, with the other half resulting from differences in analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration). These findings have serious implications for choices made in the preparation and extraction of target biomolecules, the comparison of results obtained from different laboratories, and the interpretation of small differences in bone collagen and hydroxyapatite isotope values

  20. Modelling Inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondeynaz, C.; Lopez-Puga, J.; Carmona-Moreno, C.

    2012-04-01

    Improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). This inter-dependency has been recognised with the adoption of the "Integrated Water Resources Management" principles that push for the integration of these various dimensions involved in WSS delivery to ensure an efficient and sustainable management. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector in particular in developing countries where WSS still represent an important leverage for livelihood improvement. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed a coherent database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 29 indicators from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data focusing on developing countries (Celine et al, 2011 under publication). The aim of this work is to model the WatSan4Dev dataset using probabilistic models to identify the key variables influencing or being influenced by the water supply and sanitation access levels. Bayesian Network Models are suitable to map the conditional dependencies between variables and also allows ordering variables by level of influence on the dependent variable. Separated models have been built for water supply and for sanitation because of different behaviour. The models are validated if complying with statistical criteria but either with scientific knowledge and literature. A two steps approach has been adopted to build the structure of the model; Bayesian network is first built for each thematic cluster of variables (e.g governance, agricultural pressure, or human development) keeping a detailed level for interpretation later one. A global model is then built based on significant indicators of each cluster being previously modelled. The structure of the

  1. Inter-worker variability in lower body postures during assembly line work: implications for exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyserling, W Monroe; Wiggermann, Neal; Werner, Robert A; Gell, Nancy

    2010-05-01

    This study evaluated inter-worker variability in lower body posture and work activity during highly-structured assembly line work. Data were collected from 79 unique assembly line workstations in an engine manufacturing plant. Because the plant utilized work teams, 4-8 workers rotated through each workstation. At least 30 min of videotape was collected from at least three workers at each workstation. A computer-assisted work sampling procedure randomly selected 200 video "freeze-frames" for each worker. Lower body posture/movement (e.g., sit, stand, walk, etc.) was determined for each frame and used to estimate the percentage of time the worker spent in various postures and activities. Chi-square analyses were performed for each workstation to assess the significance of inter-worker differences. Due to variations in individual work methods, significant differences (p <.05) were found at 57 out of 79 workstations (72%). The greatest differences occurred when workers had the option to choose between standing and sitting (significant in 8 of 8 cases; in extreme examples, sit time ranged between 0-100% on one job, and 6.5-98% on another). Studying a single worker (or "proxy") can contribute to substantial error when estimating exposures in workplace studies of ergonomic stressors, since the proxy may not be representative of all workers who perform the job. Individual measurements are preferable, particularly for jobs where workers have substantial latitude to develop individualized work methods.

  2. How plantar exteroceptive efficiency modulates postural and oculomotor control: inter-individual variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud eFoisy

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In a previous experiment, we showed that among young and healthy subjects, thin plantar inserts improve postural control and modify vergence amplitudes. In this experiment, however, significant inter-individual variability was observed. We hypothesize that its origin could be attributed to a different reliance upon feet cutaneous afferents. In order to test this hypothesis, we re-analyzed the data relative to 31 young (age 25,7±3,8 and healthy subjects who participated in the first experiment after having classified them into two groups depending on their Plantar Quotient (PQ = Surface area of CoP foam / Surface area of CoP firm ground x100. Foam decreases the information arising from the feet, normally resulting in a PQ>100. Hence, the PQ provides information on the weight of plantar cutaneous afferents used in postural control. Twelve people were Plantar-Independent Subjects, as indicated by a PQ<100. These individuals did not behave like the Normal Plantar Quotient Subjects: they were almost insensitive to the plantar stimulations in terms of postural control and totally insensitive in terms of oculomotor control. We conclude that the inter-individual variability observed in our first experiment is explained by the subjects’ degree of plantar reliance. We propose that plantar independence is a dysfunctional situation revealing an inefficiency in plantar cutaneous afferents. The latter could be due to a latent somatosensory dysfunction generating a noise which prevents the CNS from correctly processing and using feet somatosensory afferents both for balance and vergence control: Plantar Irritating Stimulus. Considering the non-noxious nature and prevalence of this phenomenon, these results can be of great interest to researchers and clinicians who attempt to trigger postural or oculomotor responses through mechanical stimulation of the foot sole.

  3. How Plantar Exteroceptive Efficiency Modulates Postural and Oculomotor Control: Inter-Individual Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foisy, Arnaud; Kapoula, Zoï

    2016-01-01

    In a previous experiment, we showed that among young and healthy subjects, thin plantar inserts improve postural control and modify vergence amplitudes. In this experiment, however, significant inter-individual variability was observed. We hypothesize that its origin could be attributed to a different reliance upon feet cutaneous afferents. In order to test this hypothesis, we re-analyzed the data relative to 31 young (age 25.7 ± 3.8) and healthy subjects who participated in the first experiment after having classified them into two groups depending on their Plantar Quotient (PQ = Surface area of CoPfoam/Surface area of CoPfirm ground × 100). Foam decreases the information arising from the feet, normally resulting in a PQ > 100. Hence, the PQ provides information on the weight of plantar cutaneous afferents used in postural control. Twelve people were Plantar-Independent Subjects, as indicated by a PQ postural control and totally insensitive in terms of oculomotor control. We conclude that the inter-individual variability observed in our first experiment is explained by the subjects' degree of plantar reliance. We propose that plantar independence is a dysfunctional situation revealing inefficiency in plantar cutaneous afferents. The latter could be due to a latent somatosensory dysfunction generating a noise which prevents the CNS from correctly processing and using feet somatosensory afferents both for balance and vergence control: Plantar Irritating Stimulus. Considering the non-noxious nature and prevalence of this phenomenon, these results can be of great interest to researchers and clinicians who attempt to trigger postural or oculomotor responses through mechanical stimulation of the foot sole.

  4. Assessing Inter-Sensor Variability and Sensible Heat Flux Derivation Accuracy for a Large Aperture Scintillometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan H. Rambikur

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy in determining sensible heat flux (H of three Kipp and Zonen large aperture scintillometers (LAS was evaluated with reference to an eddy covariance (EC system over relatively flat and uniform grassland near Timpas (CO, USA. Other tests have revealed inherent variability between Kipp and Zonen LAS units and bias to overestimate H. Average H fluxes were compared between LAS units and between LAS and EC. Despite good correlation, inter-LAS biases in H were found between 6% and 13% in terms of the linear regression slope. Physical misalignment was observed to result in increased scatter and bias between H solutions of a well-aligned and poorly-aligned LAS unit. Comparison of LAS and EC H showed little bias for one LAS unit, while the other two units overestimated EC H by more than 10%. A detector alignment issue may have caused the inter-LAS variability, supported by the observation in this study of differing power requirements between LAS units. It is possible that the LAS physical misalignment may have caused edge-of-beam signal noise as well as vulnerability to signal noise from wind-induced vibrations, both having an impact on the solution of H. In addition, there were some uncertainties in the solutions of H from the LAS and EC instruments, including lack of energy balance closure with the EC unit. However, the results obtained do not show clear evidence of inherent bias for the Kipp and Zonen LAS to overestimate H as found in other studies.

  5. Inter-individual variability and conspecific densities: consequences for population regulation and range expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardador, Laura; Carrete, Martina; Mañosa, Santi

    2012-01-01

    The presence of conspecifics can strongly modulate the quality of a breeding site. Both positive and negative effects of conspecifics can act on the same individuals, with the final balance between its costs and benefits depending on individual characteristics. A particular case of inter-individual variation found in many avian species is chromatic variability. Among birds, plumage coloration can co-vary with morphology, physiology and behavior as well as with age. These relationships suggest that cost-benefit balances of conspecific presence may be different for individuals with different colorations. We investigated whether inter-individual variability affects population regulation and expansion processes by analyzing potential differences in density-dependent productivity and settlement patterns in relation to plumage coloration in a population of a long-lived avian species recently undergoing a notable increase in numbers and distribution range. Our results show strong variation in the effect of density on productivity of breeding pairs depending on plumage coloration of their members. Productivity of dark birds decreased along the breeding density gradient while that of lighter breeders remained unchanged with conspecific density. In a similar way, our results showed an uneven occupation of localities by individuals with different plumage coloration in relation to local densities, with the breeding of lighter harriers more aggregated than that of dark-brown ones. At a population scale, darker birds had higher probability of colonization of the most isolated, empty sites. Explanations for species range expansion and population regulation usually make the inferred assumption that species traits are similar among individuals. However, in most species, there could be individual variation in niche requirements or dispersal propensities among individuals with different traits. Our results contribute to the growing appreciation that the individual traits, but not the

  6. Inter-individual variability and conspecific densities: consequences for population regulation and range expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cardador

    Full Text Available The presence of conspecifics can strongly modulate the quality of a breeding site. Both positive and negative effects of conspecifics can act on the same individuals, with the final balance between its costs and benefits depending on individual characteristics. A particular case of inter-individual variation found in many avian species is chromatic variability. Among birds, plumage coloration can co-vary with morphology, physiology and behavior as well as with age. These relationships suggest that cost-benefit balances of conspecific presence may be different for individuals with different colorations. We investigated whether inter-individual variability affects population regulation and expansion processes by analyzing potential differences in density-dependent productivity and settlement patterns in relation to plumage coloration in a population of a long-lived avian species recently undergoing a notable increase in numbers and distribution range. Our results show strong variation in the effect of density on productivity of breeding pairs depending on plumage coloration of their members. Productivity of dark birds decreased along the breeding density gradient while that of lighter breeders remained unchanged with conspecific density. In a similar way, our results showed an uneven occupation of localities by individuals with different plumage coloration in relation to local densities, with the breeding of lighter harriers more aggregated than that of dark-brown ones. At a population scale, darker birds had higher probability of colonization of the most isolated, empty sites. Explanations for species range expansion and population regulation usually make the inferred assumption that species traits are similar among individuals. However, in most species, there could be individual variation in niche requirements or dispersal propensities among individuals with different traits. Our results contribute to the growing appreciation that the individual

  7. Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. M. Drumond

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have discussed the interannual variability of a meridional seesaw of dry and wet conditions over South America (SA associated to the modulation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ. However, they did not explore if the variability inter ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation can be related to the phase changes of this dipole. To answer this question, an observational work was carried out to explore the atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST conditions related to the same ENSO signal and to opposite dipole phases. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF analysis was applied over normalized Chen precipitation seasonal anomalies in order to find the dipole mode in the Austral Summer (December to February. The fourth rotated mode, explaining 6.6% of the total variance, consists of positive loading over the SACZ region and negative loading over northern Argentina. Extreme events were selected and enhanced activity of SACZ during the Summer season (SACZ+ was identified in nine years: five during La Niña events (LN and two in El Niño episodes (EN. On the other hand, inhibited manifestations of this system (SACZ- were identified in seven years: four in EN and two during LN. Power spectrum analysis indicated that the interannual variability of the precipitation dipole seems to be related to the low frequency and to the quasi-biennial part of ENSO variability. The ENSO events with the same signal can present opposite phases for the dipole. The results suggest that the displacement of the convection over Indonesia and western Pacific can play an important role to modulate the seesaw pattern.

  8. Impact of synoptic weather patterns and inter-decadal climate variability on air quality in the North China Plain during 1980-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Ding, Aijun; Mao, Huiting; Nie, Wei; Zhou, Derong; Liu, Lixia; Huang, Xin; Fu, Congbin

    2016-01-01

    Potential relationships between air quality, synoptic weather patterns, and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) over the North China Plain (NCP) were examined during the time period of 1980-2013 using a weather typing technique and ground-based air pollution index (API) data from three cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang. Using the Kirchhofer method, circulation patterns during the 34-yr study period were classified into 5 categories, which were further used to understand the quantitative relationship between weather and air quality in NCP. The highest API values were associated with a stagnant weather condition when wide-spread stable conditions controlled most part of NCP, while westerly and southerly wind flowed over the northern and eastern part of this region, resulting in both the regional transport and local build-up of air pollutants. Under the continuous control of this weather pattern, API values were found to increase at a rate of 8.5 per day on average. Based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis, a significant correlation was found between the strength of EAM and inter-annual variability of frequencies of the weather patterns. The strengthening of summer/winter monsoon could increase the frequency of occurrence of cyclone/anticyclone related weather patterns. Time series of climate-induced variability in API over the 34 years were reconstructed based on the quantitative relationship between API and predominant weather patterns during 2001-2010. Significant connections between EAM and reconstructed API were found on both the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. In winter and summer, strengthening/weakening of EAM, which was generally associated with the change of the representative circulation patterns, could improve/worsen air quality in this region.

  9. Effects of modified Pilates on variability of inter-joint coordination during walking in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Sukhoon; Kim, Joo Nyeon; Lim, Hee Sung

    2016-12-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to examine the effects of an 8-week modified Pilates program on the variability of inter-joint coordination in the elderly during walking. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty elderly participants with no recent history of orthopedic abnormalities (age, 67.9 ± 2.7 years; height, 163.7 ± 8.9 cm; weight, 67.1 ± 11.6 kg) were recruited for this study and randomly allocated to a modified Pilates exercise group or a control group. Three-dimensional motion analysis was performed on both groups to evaluate the effects of the Pilates exercise. [Results] There was no significant difference in the joint variability of the ankle, knee, and hip joints between the groups, both before training and after training. However, there was a significant increase in the hip-knee deviation phase value in the exercise group after the program was completed, and this increase was also significant when compared with that in the control group. [Conclusion] This study has demonstrated that an 8-week modified Pilates exercise program can have a positive impact on the gait of elderly participants, potentially by enhancing neuromuscular adjustment, which may have positive implications for reducing their fall risk.

  10. Inter- and intra-estuarine fish assemblage variability patterns along the Portuguese coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    França, Susana; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique N.

    2011-01-01

    Estuaries along the Portuguese coast differ considerably in terms of their structure, geomorphologic and hydrologic characteristics. They play an important ecological role for different fish species, namely acting as important nursery areas. The fish assemblages of nine estuaries of the Portuguese coast were investigated in order to evaluate their main inter- and intra-estuarine variability patterns. Fish sampling surveys were conducted in May and July 2006, covering the full estuarine gradient. The different saline areas in each estuary were mapped using a Geographic Information System and fish assemblages' were described and compared using a functional guilds approach. Generalized linear models were used to relate fish species richness to geomorphologic, hydrologic and environmental characteristics of the estuaries considered and correspondence analyses were performed to evaluate similarities in fish assemblages' structure. At a large scale, river flow was the most important factor explaining the variability in species richness in estuaries along the Portuguese coast. At a regional scale, different abiotic factors explained the occurrence and abundance of fish species in the estuaries. Nonetheless, the overall role of the estuary was strongly related with the dominant saline zone within each estuary.

  11. Inter-subject variability modulates phonological advance planning in the production of adjective-noun phrases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violaine eMichel Lange

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The literature on advance phonological planning in adjective-noun phrases (NPs presents diverging results: while many experimental studies suggest that the entire NP is encoded before articulation, other results favour a span of encoding limited to the first word. Although cross-linguistic differences in the structure of adjective-noun phrases may account for some of these contrasting results, divergences have been reported even among similar languages and syntactic structures. Here we examined whether inter-individual differences account for variability in the span of phonological planning in the production of French NPs, where previous results indicated encoding limited to the first word. The span of phonological encoding is tested with the picture-word interference (PWI paradigm using phonological distractors related to the noun or to the adjective of the NPs. In Experiment 1, phonological priming effects were limited to the first word in adjective NPs whichever the position of the adjective (pre-nominal or post-nominal. Crucially, phonological priming effects on the second word interacted with speakers´ production speed suggesting different encoding strategies for participants. In Experiment 2, we tested this hypothesis further with a larger group of participants. Results clearly showed that slow and fast initialising participants presented different phonological priming patterns on the last element of adjective-noun phrases: while the first word was primed by a distractor for all speakers, only the slow speaker group presented a priming effect on the second element of the NP. These results show that the span of phonological encoding is modulated by inter-individual strategies: in experimental paradigms some speakers plan word by word whereas others encode beyond the initial word. We suggest that the diverging results reported in the literature on advance phonological planning may partly be reconciled in light of the present results.

  12. Quantification of Inter-Tsunami Model Variability for Hazard Assessment Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalan, P. A.; Alcantar, A.; Cortés, P. I.

    2014-12-01

    There is a wide range of numerical models capable of modeling tsunamis, most of which have been properly validated and verified against standard benchmark cases and particular field or laboratory cases studies. Consequently, these models are regularly used as essential tools in estimating the tsunami hazard on coastal communities by scientists, or consulting companies, and treating model results in a deterministic way. Most of these models are derived from the same set of equations, typically the Non Linear Shallow Water Equations, to which ad-hoc terms are added to include physical effects such as friction, the Coriolis force, and others. However, not very often these models are used in unison to address the variability in the results. Therefore, in this contribution, we perform a high number of simulations using a set of numerical models and quantify the variability in the results. In order to reduce the influence of input data on the results, a single tsunami scenario is used over a common bathymetry. Next, we perform model comparisons as to asses sensitivity to changes in grid resolution and Manning roughness coefficients. Results are presented either as intra-model comparisons (sensitivity to changes using the same model) and inter-model comparisons (sensitivity to changing models). For the case tested, it was observed that most models reproduced fairly consistently the arrival and periodicity of the tsunami waves. However, variations in amplitude, characterized by the standard-deviation between model runs, could be as large as the mean signal. This level of variability is considered too large for deterministic assessment, reinforcing the idea that uncertainty needs to be included in such studies.

  13. Inter- and intra-annual variation of water footprint of crops and blue water scarcity in the Yellow River basin (1961-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    The Yellow River Basin (YRB), the second largest river basin of China, has experienced a booming agriculture over the past decades. But data on variability of and trends in water consumption, pollution and scarcity in the YRB are lacking. We estimate, for the first time, the inter- and intra-annual water footprint (WF) of crop production in the YRB for the period 1961-2009 and the variation of monthly scarcity of blue water (ground and surface water) for 1978-2009, by comparing the blue WF of agriculture, industry and households in the basin to the maximum sustainable level. Results show that the average overall green (from rainfall) and blue (from irrigation) WFs of crops in the period 2001-2009 were 14% and 37% larger, respectively, than in the period 1961-1970. The annual nitrogen- and phosphorus-related grey WFs (water required to assimilate pollutants) of crop production grew by factors of 24 and 36, respectively. The green-blue WF per ton of crop reduced significantly due to improved crop yields, while the grey WF increased because of the growing application of fertilizers. The ratio of blue to green WF increased during the study period resulting from the expansion of irrigated agriculture. In the period 1978-2009, the annual total blue WFs related to agriculture, industry and households varied between 19% and 52% of the basin's natural runoff. The blue WF in the YRB generally peaks around May-July, two months earlier than natural peak runoff. On average, the YRB faced moderate to severe blue water scarcity during seven months (January-July) per year. Even in the wettest month in a wet year, about half of the area of the YRB still suffered severe blue water scarcity, especially in the basin's northern part.

  14. Clinical Factors Underlying the Inter-individual Variability of the Resting Motor Threshold in Navigated Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Motor Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Nico; Tanigawa, Noriko; Bulubas, Lucia; Sabih, Jamil; Zimmer, Claus; Ringel, Florian; Meyer, Bernhard; Krieg, Sandro M

    2017-01-01

    Correctly determining individual's resting motor threshold (rMT) is crucial for accurate and reliable mapping by navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS), which is especially true for preoperative motor mapping in brain tumor patients. However, systematic data analysis on clinical factors underlying inter-individual rMT variability in neurosurgical motor mapping is sparse. The present study examined 14 preselected clinical factors that may underlie inter-individual rMT variability by performing multiple regression analysis (backward, followed by forward model comparisons) on the nTMS motor mapping data of 100 brain tumor patients. Data were collected from preoperative motor mapping of abductor pollicis brevis (APB), abductor digiti minimi (ADM), and flexor carpi radialis (FCR) muscle representations among these patients. While edema and age at exam in the ADM model only jointly reduced the unexplained variance significantly, the other factors kept in the ADM model (gender, antiepileptic drug intake, and motor deficit) and each of the factors kept in the APB and FCR models independently significantly reduced the unexplained variance. Hence, several clinical parameters contribute to inter-individual rMT variability and should be taken into account during initial and follow-up motor mappings. Thus, the present study adds basic evidence on inter-individual rMT variability, whereby some of the parameters are specific to brain tumor patients.

  15. Inter- and intrascanner variability of pulmonary nodule volumetry on low-dose 64-row CT : an anthropomorphic phantom study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xie, X.; Willemink, M. J.; Zhao, Y.; de Jong, P. A.; van Ooijen, P. M. A.; Oudkerk, M.; Greuter, M. J. W.; Vliegenthart, R.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To assess inter- and intrascanner variability in volumetry of solid pulmonary nodules in an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom using low-dose CT. Methods: Five spherical solid artificial nodules [diameters 3, 5, 8, 10 and 12mm; CT density 1100 Hounsfield units (HU)] were randomly placed ins

  16. Correlations of Back Strength with Selected Anthropometric Variables and Performance Tests in Indian Inter-University Male Field Hockey Players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Koley

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available : The purpose of this study was of two-fold: first, to estimate the back strength of Indian inter-university male field hockey players and, second, to search the correlations of it with selected anthropometric variables and performance tests. To serve this purpose, a total of nine anthropometric variables, such as height, weight, body mass index, percent body fat, knee height, length of femur, femur biepicondylar diameter, skeletal mass and back strength, and two performance tests, such as sit and reach test and Slalom sprint and dribble test were measured on purposely selected 120 Indian inter-university male hockey players aged 18–25 years collected from the inter-university competition held in Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, India during March, 2014. An adequate number of controls (n=119 were also taken from the same place for comparison. The results showed that the hockey players had the higher mean values in all the variables, except percent body fat and slalom sprint and dribble test than their control counterparts, showing statistically significant differences (p ≤ 0.003 – 0.001 between them. No significant correlations of back strength were found with any of the variables in Indian inter-university male field hockey players. In conclusion, it may be stated that back strength may not be used as one of the indicating factors for the performance of the field hockey players.

  17. Development from childhood to adulthood increases morphological and functional inter-individual variability in the right superior temporal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonte, Milene; Frost, Martin A; Rutten, Sanne; Ley, Anke; Formisano, Elia; Goebel, Rainer

    2013-12-01

    We study the developmental trajectory of morphology and function of the superior temporal cortex (STC) in children (8-9 years), adolescents (14-15 years) and young adults. We analyze cortical surface landmarks and functional MRI (fMRI) responses to voices, other natural categories and tones and examine how hemispheric asymmetry and inter-subject variability change across age. Our results show stable morphological asymmetries across age groups, including a larger left planum temporale and a deeper right superior temporal sulcus. fMRI analyses show that a rightward lateralization for voice-selective responses is present in all groups but decreases with age. Furthermore, STC responses to voices change from being less selective and more spatially diffuse in children to highly selective and focal in adults. Interestingly, the analysis of morphological landmarks reveals that inter-subject variability increases during development in the right--but not in the left--STC. Similarly, inter-subject variability of cortically-realigned functional responses to voices, other categories and tones increases with age in the right STC. Our findings reveal asymmetric developmental changes in brain regions crucial for auditory and voice perception. The age-related increase of inter-subject variability in right STC suggests that anatomy and function of this region are shaped by unique individual developmental experiences.

  18. Inter-annual variation of NDVI over Korea Peninsula using harmonic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, In-hwan; Han, Kyung-Soo; Pi, Kyoung-Jin; Park, Soo-Jae; Kim, Sang-Il

    2010-10-01

    Global warming and climatic changes due to human activities impact on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, which feedbacks to climate system. These negative feedbacks amplify or accelerate again global climate change. In particular, life cycle of vegetation sensitively vary according to global climate change. This study attempts to analyze quantitatively vegetation change in Korea peninsula using harmonic analysis. Satellite data was extracted from SPOT/VEGETATION S10 MVC (Maximum Value Composite) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) products during 10 years (1999 to 2008) around Korea peninsula. This NDVI data set was pre-processed to correct noise pixels cause by cloud and ground wetness. Variation of vegetation life cycle was analyzed through amplitudes and phases of annual harmonic components (first harmonic components) per year for two land cover types (cropland and forest). The results clearly show that the peak of vegetation life cycle in Korea peninsula is brought forward to early. Especially, it represents that the phases over low latitudes area between 32.8°N and 38°N steadily decrease every year both forest and cropland. The study estimated that phase values moved up approximately 0.5 day per year in cropland and 0.8 day per year in forest.

  19. Seasonal, annual and inter-annual features of turbulence parameters over the tropical station Pune (18°32' N, 73°51' E observed with UHF wind profiler

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Pant

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study is specifically focused on the seasonal, annual and inter-annual variations of the refractive index structure parameter (Cn2 using three years of radar observations. Energy dissipation rates (ε during different seasons for a particular year are also computed over a tropical station, Pune. Doppler spectral width measurements made by the Wind Profiler, under various atmospheric conditions, are utilized to estimate the turbulence parameters. The refractive index structure parameter varies from 10−17.5 to 10−13 m−2/3 under clear air to precipitation conditions in the height region of 1.05 to 10.35 km. During the monsoon months, observed Cn2 values are up to 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than those during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Spectral width correction for various non-turbulent spectral broadenings such as beam broadening and shear broadening are made in the observed spectral width for reliable estimation of ε under non-precipitating conditions. It is found that in the lower tropospheric height region, values of ε are in the range of 10−6 to 10−3 m2 s−3. In summer and monsoon seasons the observed values of ε are larger than those in post-monsoon and winter seasons in the lower troposphere. A comparison of Cn2 observed with the wind profiler and that estimated using Radio Sonde/Radio Wind (RS/RW data of nearby Met station Chikalthana has been made for the month of July 2003.

  20. Inter-annual and seasonal trends in cetacean distribution, density and abundance off southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Gregory S.; Thomas, Len; Whitaker, Katherine; Douglas, Annie B.; Calambokidis, John; Hildebrand, John A.

    2015-02-01

    Trends in cetacean density and distribution off southern California were assessed through visual line-transect surveys during thirty-seven California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) cruises from July 2004-November 2013. From sightings of the six most commonly encountered cetacean species, seasonal, annual and overall density estimates were calculated. Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were the most frequently sighted baleen whales with overall densities of 0.91/1000 km2 (CV=0.27), 2.73/1000 km2 (CV=0.19), and 1.17/1000 km2 (CV=0.21) respectively. Species specific density estimates, stratified by cruise, were analyzed using a generalized additive model to estimate long-term trends and correct for seasonal imbalances. Variances were estimated using a non-parametric bootstrap with one day of effort as the sampling unit. Blue whales were primarily observed during summer and fall while fin and humpback whales were observed year-round with peaks in density during summer and spring respectively. Short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis), Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) and Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoidesdalli) were the most frequently encountered small cetaceans with overall densities of 705.83/1000 km2 (CV=0.22), 51.98/1000 km2 (CV=0.27), and 21.37/1000 km2 (CV=0.19) respectively. Seasonally, short-beaked common dolphins were most abundant in winter whereas Pacific white-sided dolphins and Dall's porpoise were most abundant during spring. There were no significant long-term changes in blue whale, fin whale, humpback whale, short-beaked common dolphin or Dall's porpoise densities while Pacific white-sided dolphins exhibited a significant decrease in density across the ten-year study. The results from this study were fundamentally consistent with earlier studies, but provide greater temporal and seasonal resolution.

  1. Inter-annual and seasonal variations in hydrological parameters and its implications on chlorophylla distribution along the southwest coast of Bay of Bengal

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shanthi R; Poornima D; Raja K; Sarangi R K; Saravanakumar A; Thangaradjou T

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variability of hydrological parameters and its impact on chlorophyll distribution was studied from January 2009 to December 2011 at four coastal stations along the southwest Bay of Bengal. Statistical analysis (principal component analysis (PCA), two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and correlation analysis) showed the significant impact of hydrological parameters on chlorophyll distribution in the study area. The ranges of different parameters recorded were 23.8–33.8°C (SST), 4.00–36.00 (salinity), 7.0–9.2 (pH), 4.41–8.32 mg/L (dissolved oxygen), 0.04–2.45 μmol/L (nitrite), 0.33–16.10 μmol/L (nitrate), 0.02–2.51 μmol/L (ammonia), 0.04–3.32 μmol/L (inorganic phosphate), 10.09–85.28 μmol/L (reactive silicate) and 0.04–13.8 μg/L (chlorophyll). PCA analysis carried out for different seasons found variations in the relationship between physico-chemical parameters and chlorophyll in which nitrate and chlorophyll were positively loaded at PC1 (principal component 1) during spring inter-monsoon and at PC2 (principal component 2) during other seasons. Likewise correlation analysis also showed significant positive relationship between chlorophyll and nutrients especially with nitrate (r=0.734). Distribution of hydrobiological parameters between stations and distances was significantly varying as evidenced from the ANOVA results. The study found that the spatial and temporal distribution of chlorophyll was highly dependent on the availability of nutrients especially, nitrate in the southwest Bay of Bengal coastal waters.

  2. Biogeochemical variations at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, from weekly to inter-annual time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Susan; Lampitt, Richard

    2015-04-01

    We present high-resolution autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide partial pres- sure p(CO2) taken in situ at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained observatory (PAP- SO) in the northeast Atlantic (49N, 16.5W; water depth of 4850 m) for the period 2010 to 2012. Measurements of p(CO2) made at 30 m depth on a sensor frame are compared with other autonomous biogeochemical measurements at that depth (including chlorophyll a-fluorescence and nitrate concentration data) to analyse weekly to seasonal controls on p(CO2) flux in the inter-gyre region of the North Atlantic. Comparisons are also made with in situ regional time-series data from a ship of opportunity and mixed layer depth (MLD) measurements from profiling Argo floats. There is a persistent under saturation of CO2 in surface waters throughout the year which gives rise to a perennial CO2 sink. Comparison with an earlier dataset collected at the site (2003 to 2005) confirms seasonal and inter-annual changes in surface seawater chemistry. There is year-to-year variability in the timing of deep winter mixing and the intensity of the spring bloom. The 2010-2012 period shows an overall increase in p(CO2) values when compared to the 2003-2005 period as would be expected from increases due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The surface temperature, wind speed and MLD measurements are similar for both periods of time. Future work should incorporate daily CO2 flux measurements made using CO2 sensors at 1 m depth and the in situ wind speed data now available from the UK Met Office Buoy.

  3. Biogeochemical variations at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained Observatory in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, from weekly to inter-annual timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, S. E.; Jiang, Z.-P.; Turk, D.; Lampitt, R. S.; Frigstad, H.; Ostle, C.; Schuster, U.

    2015-02-01

    We present high-resolution autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide partial pressure p(CO2) taken in situ at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the northeast Atlantic (49° N, 16.5° W; water depth of 4850 m) for the period 2010-2012. Measurements of p(CO2) made at 30 m depth on a sensor frame are compared with other autonomous biogeochemical measurements at that depth (including chlorophyll a fluorescence and nitrate concentration data) to analyse weekly to seasonal controls on p(CO2) flux in the inter-gyre region of the North Atlantic. Comparisons are also made with in situ regional time series data from a ship of opportunity and mixed layer depth (MLD) measurements from profiling Argo floats. There is a persistent under-saturation of CO2 in surface waters throughout the year which gives rise to a perennial CO2 sink. Comparison with an earlier data set collected at the site (2003-2005) confirms seasonal and inter-annual changes in surface seawater chemistry. There is year-to-year variability in the timing of deep winter mixing and the intensity of the spring bloom. The 2010-2012 period shows an overall increase in p(CO2) values when compared to the 2003-2005 period as would be expected from increases due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The surface temperature, wind speed and MLD measurements are similar for both periods of time. Future work should incorporate daily CO2 flux measurements made using CO2 sensors at 1 m depth and the in situ wind speed data now available from the UK Met Office Buoy.

  4. Seasonal, Inter-annual and Long Term Trends in the Element Composition of Tropical Tree Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheyden, A.; Beeckman, H.; Andre, L.

    2008-12-01

    The inorganic composition of Rhizophora mucronata wood was studied on 11 stem discs collected from two mangrove forests in Kenya. The aim of this preliminary study was to assess if elements could be used as proxies of environmental and/or anthropogenic change. Earlywood and late wood were separated and analyzed on ICP-MS and ICP-OES. A remarkable synchronicity was found between ring width and Mg/Ca and Mn/Ca ratios, both of which have been used as soil pH proxies. However, there was also a negative correlation between Ca and ring width, indicating a dilution effect at higher growth rates. The essential elements P and K were significantly higher in fast growing plantation trees, suggesting that these elements might be useful as nutrient proxies in mangrove wood. A high correlation was found between Ca and Sr in the wood, indicating that probably no differentiation is made by the tree during incorporation of these elements in the wood. Since Sr/Ca of seawater is related to salinity, we suggest that the Sr/Ca in the wood could be used as a salinity proxy for tree species growing in brackish waters. Finally, a high-resolution study was also conducted using LA-ICP-MS, which revealed a high spatial variability within one ring. This high variability was the result of different concentrations in each wood cell type analyzed. The heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb and Cr), as well as Ba, had highest concentrations in the fibers and lowest in the vessels. On the other hand, B, Mn, Ca, P, and Sr were highest in the rays and vessels and lowest in the fibers, while Mg was the highest in the rays, but lowest in the vessels. The implications of these results for the use of trace elements to delimit chemical ring boundaries in tropical trees will be discussed.

  5. Sensitivity of Average Annual Runoff to Spatial Variability and Temporal Correlation of Rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babin, Steven M.

    1995-08-01

    This paper examines the sensitivity of annual area mean runoff calculations to the effects of spatial variability and temporal correlation of rainfall. The model used is based upon the hypothesis that the annual water balance is determined only by rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. A simple bucket hydrology model with a seasonally varying potential evapotranspiration is used with rainfall data measured at several sites on the Delmarva Peninsula. Annual area mean runoffs are calculated for three cases: 1) actual spatial variability among the rain gauge sites and temporal correlation between consecutive 1-min rainfall amounts are maintained (the actual case); 2) actual spatial variability among the sites is maintained but temporal correlation between the consecutive 1-min rainfall amounts is minimized (the site-shuffled case); and 3) both spatial variability and temporal correlation are ignored (the area-averaged case). The actual case represents the baseline for comparison with the other two cases. The annual a' mean runoffs show little sensitivity to spatial variability and temporal correlation for this model. Therefore, if finite soil permeability effects are ignored in favor of simple water storage capacity, then spatial variability and temporal correlation of rainfall appear to have little impact on the annual area mean runoff for the data considered in this study.

  6. Inter-annual surface evolution of an Antarctic blue-ice moraine using multi-temporal DEMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westoby, M. J.; Dunning, S. A.; Woodward, J.; Hein, A. S.; Marrero, S. M.; Winter, K.; Sugden, D. E.

    2015-11-01

    Multi-temporal and fine resolution topographic data products are being increasingly used to quantify surface elevation change in glacial environments. In this study, we employ 3-D digital elevation model (DEM) differencing to quantify the topographic evolution of a blue-ice moraine complex in front of Patriot Hills, Heritage Range, Antarctica. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to acquire multiple topographic datasets of the moraine surface at the beginning and end of the austral summer season in 2012/2013 and during a resurvey field campaign in 2014. A complementary topographic dataset was acquired at the end of season 1 through the application of Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry to a set of aerial photographs taken from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Three-dimensional cloud-to-cloud differencing was undertaken using the Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2) algorithm. DEM differencing revealed net uplift and lateral movement of the moraine crests within season 1 (mean uplift ∼ 0.10 m), with lowering of a similar magnitude in some inter-moraine depressions and close to the current ice margin. Our results indicate net uplift across the site between seasons 1 and 2 (mean 0.07 m). This research demonstrates that it is possible to detect dynamic surface topographical change across glacial moraines over short (annual to intra-annual) timescales through the acquisition and differencing of fine-resolution topographic datasets. Such data offer new opportunities to understand the process linkages between surface ablation, ice flow, and debris supply within moraine ice.

  7. Analysis of the seasonal and inter-annual variations, and long-term trends of ozone in the metropolitan area of Monterrey, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassmany Hernández Paniagua, Iván; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Since 1993, high-precision and high-frequency measurements of ambient O3 have been recorded at 5 sites within the metropolitan area of Monterrey, the third largest city in Mexico. O3was measured by the Integral Environmental Monitoring System of the Nuevo Leon State Government using commercially available, conventional UV photometry instrumentation (precision better than ±1 ppb). The datasets exhibit variations on differing time-scales of minutes to hours, with evidence of seasonal cycles and inter-annual variability. The O3 diurnal cycles vary with length of daylight, which influences its formation and loss via photochemistry. No apparent influence is observed in the amplitudes of O3 diurnal cycles recorded during weekdays with higher emissions from fossil fuel combustion than at weekends, although larger amplitudes occur at sites with polluted air from industrial areas. Seasonal cycles are driven by the variation in solar radiation and changes in emissions of primary precursors, VOCs and NOX. Maximum O3 mixing ratios were recorded in spring, and minimum values in winter, with a secondary trough during summer due to the advection of clean air masses from the Gulf of Mexico. The largest spring maxima are recorded downwind of an industrial area likely due photochemical processing of VOCs and NOx, with the lowest recorded in a highly populated area due to reaction of O3 and NO. At all sites, decreasing seasonal amplitudes were observed during 1993-1998, followed by persistent increases from 1998 to 2014. Wind sector analyses were carried out by splitting the wind direction into 8 categories (45°). At all sites, the highest O3 mixing ratios were recorded from the E and SE sectors, with lowest values recorded in air masses from the W and NW. Wind sector analysis of primary precursors (such as VOCs, CO, NOX) reveal that sources are dominated by emissions from industrial regions in Monterrey and surrounding areas. The largest annual growth rates for the E and SE

  8. Inter-unit variability in two ParvoMedics TrueOne 2400 automated metabolic gas analysis systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macfarlane, D J; Wu, H L

    2013-03-01

    Knowing the inter-unit variability, especially the technological error, is important when using many physiological measurement systems, yet no such inter-unit analysis has been undertaken on duplicate automated gas analysis systems. This study investigated the inter-unit performance of two identical ParvoMedics TrueOne 2400 automated gas analysis systems during a range of submaximal steady-state exercises performed on an electromagnetic cycle ergometer. Fifteen adult males were tested on two separate days a rest, 30, 60, 90, and 120 Watts with the duplicate gas analysis units arranged (1) collaterally (2 min of steady-state expired gas was alternately passed through each system), and (2) simultaneously (identical steady-state expired gas was passed simultaneously through both systems). Total within-subject variation (biological + technological) was determined from the collateral tests, but the unique inter-unit variability (technological error between identical systems) was shown by the simultaneous tests. Absolute percentage errors (APE), coefficient of variations (CV), effect sizes and Bland-Altman analyses were undertaken on the metabolic data, including expired ventilation (V (E)), oxygen consumption (VO(2)) and carbon dioxide production (VCO(2)). The few statistically significant differences detected between the two duplicate systems were determined to have small or trivial effect sizes, and their magnitudes to be of little physiological importance. The total within-subject variations for VO(2), VCO(2) and V (E) each equated to a mean CV and mean APE value of ~4 and ~6 %, whilst the respective inter-unit technological errors equated to ~1.5 and ~2.1 %. The two ParvoMedics TrueOne 2400 systems demonstrated excellent inter-unit agreement.

  9. Inter Annual Variability of the California Current System and Associated Biochemical Characteristics from Prolonged Data Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Huntsberger, D. V., and P. Billingsley, 1973: Regression and Correlation. Elements of Statistical Inference, 3rd ed. Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 218–243. Hu...persistence of California Current Fishes and Benthic Crustaceans: A Marine Drift Paradox. Ecological Monographs, 74, 505–524. Simmons, A. J., G. W

  10. Inter-Annual Variability in Blue Whale Distribution off Southern Sri Lanka between 2011 and 2012

    OpenAIRE

    Asha de Vos; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Robert G Harcourt

    2014-01-01

    Blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) movements are often driven by the availability of their prey in space and time. While globally blue whale populations undertake long-range migrations between feeding and breeding grounds, those in the northern Indian Ocean remain in low latitude waters throughout the year with the implication that the productivity of these waters is sufficient to support their energy needs. A part of this population remains around Sri Lanka where they are usually recorded cl...

  11. Digital Atlas and Evaluation of the Influence of Inter-Annual Variability on Climate Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-09-01

    Abstracts, Institute Nationale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale-OGS, Trieste, Italy 2001 р. 65 Unesco 1993: Manual of quality control procedures for validation of oceanographic data, IOC UNESCO, pp.436. 995

  12. Trend change detection in NDVI time series: Effects of inter-annual variability and methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forkel, M.; Carvalhais, N.; Verbesselt, J.; Mahecha, M.D.; Neigh, C.; Reichstein, M.

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite datase

  13. Time Evolution and Inter-Annual Variability of Seasonal Ice on the Mars Northern Polar Cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mount, C.; Titus, T. N.

    2012-03-01

    We explore the temporal density variations of Mars' NPSC and use ice depth and density estimates to constrain the CROCUS date for a specific location and compare it to the CROCUS dates from three previous Mars years.

  14. Three-dimensional Mass Measurement of Subsolid Pulmonary Nodules on Chest CT: Intra and Inter-observer Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiting LIU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Subsolid pulmonary nodules tend to exhibit considerably slower growth rates than solid lesions, nevertheless, higher malignancy probability. The diagnosis of indeterminate nodules largely depends on the growth evaluation during follow-up. The growth can manifested as an increase in size or the appearance and/or subsequent increase of solid components. The mass reflect the product of volume and density and can be more sensitive in growth evaluation. However, the repeatability needs a further validation. The purpose of this study is to assess the intra and inter-observer variability of mass measurement for subsolid nodules. Methods 80 subsolid nodules in 44 patients were retrospectively enrolled. Both the volume and mass were measured by two radiologists using blind method independently. Intra-observer and inter-observer variability were analyzed and compared by Bland-Altman method intra-class correlation test and Wilcoxon test. Results Software achieved satisfied segmentation for 92.5% nodules. Of them, 35% underwent manual modification. The 95% limits of agreement for intra-observer variability were -11.5%-10.4% for mass and -8.4%-8.8% for volume. The 95% limits of agreement for inter-observer variability were -17.4%-19.3% for mass and -17.9%-19.4% for volume.The intra-class correlation foefficients between volume and mass measument was 0.95 and 0.93 (both P<0.001 and no significant differences (P=0.78, 0.09 was found for intra- and inter-observer variability. Manual modification of the segmentation caused the worse mass measurement repeatability in spite of the reader satisfaction. Conclusion The repeatability of mass measurement has no significant difference with that of volume measurement and may act as a reliable method in the follow-up of subsolid nodules.

  15. What drives inter-annual variations in C flux and balance in a tropical rainforest of French Guiana?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilos, Maricar; Herault, Bruno; Burban, Benoit; Wagner, Fabien; Bonal, Damien

    2017-04-01

    Amazon rainforests, a major contributor to the global carbon sink, is not on steady state and information about the long-term impact of climate change on carbon fluxes between this ecosystem and the atmosphere and the resulting balance is lacking. A thorough understanding of the forest responses to climate is indeed important to improve ecosystem process models and to reduce uncertainties in the contemporary carbon balance calculations for tropical forests. To address these issues, we examined the interannual variations in gross primary photosynthesis (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a tropical rainforest in French Guiana and identified key climatic drivers influencing such changes across a 12-year long period (2004 - 2015). The study period was characterized by strong differences in climate conditions, particularly in the intensity of the long dry and the long wet seasons. Fluctuations in annual average GPP vary from 9.27 ± 1.68 g C m?2 d?1 to 11.13 ± 2.21 g C m?2 d?1. RE is more varied than GPP having a difference of 2.53 C m?2 d?1 between the minimum (8.28 ± 0.85 g C m?2 d?1) and maximum (10.80 ± 1.67 g C m?2 d?1). GPP was always higher than RE annually and the forest remained a carbon sink in an annual basis although NEE has huge interannual variability, from -0.18 ± 1.64 g C m?2 d?1 to -1.62 ± 1.65 g C m?2 d?1. Annually, the combination of global radiation (Rg), relative extractable water (REW) and soil temperature (Ts) explained 51% of the variations of GPP, 30% for RE, and 39% for NEE, but global radiation was always the best predictor variable. Seasonally, Rg was the major controlling factor for GPP (r2 = 0.58; P area index, tree growth or litterfall did not contribute much to explain these variations. This study highlights the importance of taking into consideration the main drivers of C fluxes and balance for each seasonal type when integrating them in land atmosphere models. Detailed mechanisms on the impact of

  16. Effect of age on inter and intra-subject variability in acceptable noise level (ANL in listeners with normal hearing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bankole K. Fasanya

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Several industrial engineering and psychological studies have shown that noise affects the important aspects of communication for both adults and children. For speech understanding by hearing aids users and language development in children, an accurate hearing is very important. A metric has been developed for measuring an individual's acceptance of noise while listening to speech in quiet. This metric is known as Acceptable Noise Levels (ANLs. Studies have shown large inter-subject variability in acceptance of background noise. An argument has been made that an acceptance of background noise is a “means” that will help to solve the puzzle and monumental problem of hearing aid rejection. Meanwhile, within subject age dependency has not been investigated. This study is conducted to determine if ANL inter and intra-subject variability under music signal depends on age. Twenty subjects participated in the study (average age = 29; SD = 3.7; range 23-35 years. All participants had hearing level not worse than 25dB HL at octave frequencies from 250Hz to 4000Hz. Listeners’ task was to adjust the level of music played in quiet to their most comfortable listening level and then to adjust the level of background noise to the maximum level that they still consider acceptable while listening to music. Further, music is not a speech signal that many researchers have used to determine the significance of age on ANL inter-subject variability. Results of this study supported the findings of others on age dependency, which shows that ANL inter and intra-subject variability is independent of age.

  17. The role of synoptic, seasonal, and inter-annual climate on the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration in a semi-arid woodland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, J.; Powers, H. H.; Meyer, C.; Pockman, W.; McDowell, N.

    2010-12-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle is influenced by environmental variability at time scales ranging from synoptic to inter-annual. Here we present five-years of nightly growing season (day 100-300) observations of the carbon isotope ratio of ecosystem respiration (δ 13CR) from a semi-arid, Juniperus monosperma dominated woodland. This ecosystem experienced large environmental changes, including variable frequency and intensity of precipitation-pulses and timing and intensity of droughts and monsoon seasons. Mean δ 13CR was remarkably invariant (-23.57 + 0.4 ‰), with the only exception being particularly enriched δ 13CR in 2006 following a winter with anomalously low snowfall and during other seasonal periods of low soil water content (SWC). δ 13CR was strongly coupled to climate and physiology during the dry pre-monsoon periods (typically May-June), including fast (≤2 days) responses to changes in juniper canopy conductance (Gc) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) following rain pulses. In contrast, δ 13CR was relatively de-coupled from Gc and environmental drivers during monsoon and post-monsoon periods (July-August and September, respectively). During these latter two seasons, δ 13CR values approached the δ 13C of soil organic matter and response times to VPD and SWC were lagged significantly longer than for pre-monsoon periods (eight days average). Rainfall events caused clear immediate depletions in δ13CR,followed by progressive hourly δ 13CR enrichment. Rates of soil respiration were elevated during wet periods and had values similar to δ 13CR. These results are consistent with the source of ecosystem respiration shifting from autotrophic dominance utilizing recently assimilated C substrates in the pre-monsoon drought to an increasing heterotrophic decomposition of older carbon during the wetter monsoon and post-monsoon periods.

  18. Inter and intra-observer variability of time-lapse annotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundvall Germeys, Linda Karin M; Ingerslev, Hans Jakob; Knudsen, Ulla Breth;

    already: The commonly employed method used to assess embryos in IVF treatments is based on static evaluation of morphology in a microscope, but this is limited by substantial intra- and inter-observer variation. Time-lapse imaging has been proposed as a method to refine embryo selection by adding new......-lapse recordings. One observer performed the assessment twice. Twenty-five parameters were annotated and the inter- and intra-observer agreement was assessed by calculating Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Main results and the role of chance: Extremely close agreement (ICC 0.99) was found for dynamic...

  19. Description, evaluation and clinical decision making according to various fetal heart rate patterns. Inter-observer and regional variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1992-01-01

    At 10 Danish obstetrical departments, 116 residents (42 senior and 74 junior) participated in a study to assess inter-observer and regional variability in the description and evaluation of and clinical decision regarding 11 fetal heart rate patterns. The 11 traces included normal as well...... and the presence of silent or sinusoidal pattern (87-94% on an arbitrary 0-100% scale), and low regarding the assessment of variability and type of deceleration (50-72%). The degree of agreement in interpreting heart rate patterns was 59% (on an arbitrary 0-100% scale). Senior residents generally interpreted...

  20. Inter-annual Variations and Decadal Trends in Surface Equatorial Pacific Phosphate Concentrations: Coral Records from the Line Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.; LaVigne, M.; Tudhope, A. W.; Cobb, K.

    2011-12-01

    Coralline P/Ca is a newly-calibrated proxy for oceanic phosphate concentration (LaVigne et al. 2010, Anagnostuou et al. 2011). This proxy is an important tool for reconstructing tropical ocean nutrient dynamics, especially in remote regions, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are poorly covered by instrumental records. Here we present P/Ca records in 4 Porites corals from the Line Islands in the central Equatorial Pacific spanning the last ~ 30 years. The coral from Jarvis Island (0°22'S) has a significantly higher P/Ca concentration than two independent coral records from Christmas Island (1°53'N), and a coral from Fanning Island (3°51'N). This is consistent with the strong meridional gradient in surface phosphate in the central equatorial Pacific. All corals record a long-term 2-fold decrease in phosphate concentration from the mid 1970s to the mid 1990s, in agreement with observed slowing of the Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (McPhadden and Zhang 2002). On inter-annual time scales, the corals all capture strong El Niño events as a decrease in surface phosphate consistent with deepening of the eastern Pacific thermocline. The magnitude of this suppression is significantly larger in the Jarvis Island coral, again consistent with its location in the high phosphate tongue in the equatorial Pacific. The Jarvis Island coral record shows hints of a decadal oscillation in P which so far does not appear to be captured by the Christmas Island coral. Further analyses are underway to extend these records and to study P dynamics in other Line Island corals. Our preliminary results suggest that Porites corals are recording P variations in the central Pacific which accord with known oceanographic changes. This study demonstrates the potential for reconstructing nutrient dynamics at annual to multidecadal resolutions. Citations LaVigne M., Matthews K. A., Grottoli A. G., Cobb K. M., Anagnostou E., Cabioch G., and Sherrell R. M. (2010) Coral skeleton P

  1. International study on inter-reader variability for circulating tumor cells in breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Ignatiadis (Michael); S. Riethdorf (Sabine); F.-C. Bidard (François-Clement); I. Vaucher (Isabelle); M. Khazour (Mustapha); F. Rothé (Françoise); J. Metallo (Jessica); G. Rouas (Ghizlane); R.E. Payne (Rachel); R.C. Coombes (Raoul); I. Teufel (Ingrid); U. Andergassen (Ulrich); M. Apostolaki (Maria); E. Politaki (Eleni); D. Mavroudis (Dimitris); E. Bessi (Elena); M. Pestrin (Marta); A. Di Leo (Angelo); D. Campion (Dominique); M. Reinholz (Monica); E. Perez (Edith); M.J. Piccart (Martine); E. Borgen (Elin); B. Naume (Bjorn); J. Jimenez (Jose); C.M. Aura (Claudia); L. Zorzino (Laura); M.C. Cassatella (Maria); M.T. Sandri (Maria); B. Mostert (Bianca); S. Sleijfer (Stefan); J. Kraan (Jaco); W. Janni (Wolfgang); T. Fehm (Tanja); B. Rack (Brigitte); L.W.M.M. Terstappen (Leon); M. Repollet (Madeline); J.Y. Pierga (Jean Yves); C. Miller (Craig); C. Sotiriou (Christos); S. Michiels (Stefan); K. Pantel (Klaus)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) have been studied in breast cancer with the CellSearch® system. Given the low CTC counts in non-metastatic breast cancer, it is important to evaluate the inter-reader agreement.Methods: CellSearch® images (N = 272) of either CTCs or white bloo

  2. Inter-observer variability in contouring the penile bulb on CT images for prostate cancer treatment planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdagni Riccardo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Several investigations have recently suggested the existence of a correlation between the dose received by the penile bulb (PB and the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED after radical radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate carcinoma. A prospective multi-Institute study (DUE-01 was implemented with the aim to assess the predictive parameters of ED. Previously, an evaluation of inter-observer variations of PB contouring was mandatory in order to quantify its impact on PB dose-volume parameters by means of a dummy run exercise. Fifteen observers, from different Institutes, drew the PB on the planning CT images of ten patients; inter-observer variations were analysed in terms of PB volume variation and cranial/caudal limits. 3DCRT treatment plans were simulated to evaluate the impact of PB contouring inter-variability on dose-volume statistics parameters. For DVH analysis the values of PB mean dose and the volume of PB receiving more than 50 Gy and 70 Gy (V50 and V70, respectively were considered. Systematic differences from the average values were assessed by the Wilcoxon test. Seven observers systematically overestimated or underestimated the PB volume with deviations from the average volumes ranging between -48% and +34% (p Inter-observer contouring variability strongly impacts on DVH parameters, although standard deviations of inter-patient differences were larger than inter-observer variations: 14.5 Gy versus 6.8 Gy for mean PB dose, 23.0% versus 11.0% and 16.8% versus 9.3% for V50 and V70 respectively. In conclusion, despite the large inter-observer variation in contouring PB, a large multi-centric study may have the possibility to detect a possible correlation between PB % dose-volume parameters and ED. The impact of contouring uncertainty could be reduced by "a posteriori" contouring from a single observer or by introducing Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI in the planning procedures and/or in improving the skill of observers

  3. Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulsig, Laura; Nichol, Caroline J.; Huemmrich, Karl F.; Landis, David R.; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Mammarella, Ivan; Levula, Janne; Porcar-Castell, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS) were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction) processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R (sup 2) equals 0.36-0.8), which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.6 in all cases). The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

  4. Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Ulsig

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI. This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R2 = 0.36–0.8, which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R2 > 0.6 in all cases. The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

  5. Characteristics of Spatial Structural Patterns and Temporal Variability of Annual Precipitation in Ningxia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the spatial structural patterns and temporal variability of annual precipitation in Ningxia.[Method] Using rotated empirical orthogonal function,the precipitation concentration index,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall rank statistic method,the characteristics of precipitation on the spatial-temporal variability and trend were analyzed by the monthly precipitation series in Ningxia during 1951-2008.[Result] In Ningxia,the spatial structural patterns of a...

  6. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  7. Inter-individual variability of forces and modular muscle coordination in cycling: a study on untrained subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marchis, Cristiano; Schmid, Maurizio; Bibbo, Daniele; Bernabucci, Ivan; Conforto, Silvia

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the muscle coordination underlying pedaling in untrained subjects by using the muscle synergies paradigm, and to connect it with the inter-individual variability of EMG patterns and applied forces. Nine subjects performed a pedaling exercise on a cycle-simulator. Applied forces were recorded by means of instrumented pedals able to measure two force components. EMG signals were recorded from eight muscles of the dominant leg, and Nonnegative Matrix Factorization was applied to extract muscle synergy vectors W and time-varying activation coefficients H. Inter-individual variability was assessed for EMG patterns, force profiles, and H. Four modules were sufficient to reconstruct the muscle activation repertoire for all the subjects (variance accounted for >90% for each muscle). These modules were found to be highly similar between subjects in terms of W (mean r=.89), while most of the variability in force profiles and EMG patterns was reflected, in the muscle synergy structure, in the variability of H. These four modules have a functional interpretation when related to force distribution along the pedaling cycle, and the structure of W is shared with that present in human walking, suggesting the existence of a modular motor control in humans.

  8. Annual and interannual variability of scatterometer ocean surface wind over the South China Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, GS; Xu, Q.; Gong, Z.

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during...

  9. To asses inter- and intra-observer variability for breast density and BIRADS assessment categories in mammographic reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masroor, Imrana; Rasool, Mahreen; Saeed, Shaista Afzal; Sohail, Saba

    2016-02-01

    To evaluate the inter- and intra-observer variability among radiologists in the characterisation of mammograms according to Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System assessment and breast density categories. The descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from January 2014 to June 2014. Using non-probability purposive sampling, all mammograms in the study were interpreted by three radiologists on the basis of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories and by assessing the breast density composition. The inter-observer variability was recorded by comparing the difference in the interpretation and categorisation of each case. Intra-observer variability was noted by comparing the differences in the two sets of results from reading the same mammogram three months apart. A total of 254 mammograms were reviewed and the mean age of patients was 55.2±11.6 years. In the first round of diagnostic imaging, there was moderate agreement among all three possible pairs of observers regarding breast density (k= 0.50-0.41), but for Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories the agreement was less (k=0.27-0.13). After 3 months, variability of observer 1 showed substantial agreement (k=0.65).Variability between observer 2 and observer 3 showed moderate agreement (k=0.13).In terms of categories, intra-observer differences were variable: observer 1 (?=0.61; observer 2(?=0.17); observer 3 (k=0.45). Despite standardised guidelines for reporting density and assessment categories, observer variability continues to exist.

  10. Improving inter-observer variability in the evaluation of ultrasonographic features of polycystic ovaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leswick David A

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We recently reported poor inter-observer agreement in identifying and quantifying individual ultrasonographic features of polycystic ovaries. Our objective was to determine the effect of a training workshop on reducing inter-observer variation in the ultrasonographic evaluation of polycystic ovaries. Methods Transvaginal ultrasound recordings from thirty women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS were evaluated by three radiologists and three reproductive endocrinologists both before and after an ultrasound workshop. The following endpoints were assessed: 1 follicle number per ovary (FNPO, 2 follicle number per single cross-section (FNPS, 3 largest follicle diameter, 4 ovarian volume, 5 follicle distribution pattern and 6 presence of a corpus luteum (CL. Lin's concordance correlation coefficients (rho and kappa statistics for multiple raters (kappa were used to assess level of inter-observer agreement (>0.80 good, 0.60 – 0.80 moderate/fair, Results Following the workshop, inter-observer agreement improved for the evaluation of FNPS (rho = 0.70, delta rho = +0.11, largest follicle diameter (rho = 0.77, delta rho = +0.10, ovarian volume (rho = 0.84, delta rho = +0.12, follicle distribution pattern (kappa = 0.80, delta kappa = +0.21 and presence of a CL (kappa = 0.87, delta kappa = +0.05. No improvement was evident for FNPO (rho = 0.54, delta rho = -0.01. Both radiologists and reproductive endocrinologists demonstrated improvement in scores (p Conclusion Reliability in evaluating ultrasonographic features of polycystic ovaries can be significantly improved following participation in a training workshop. If ultrasonographic evidence of polycystic ovaries is to be used as an objective measure in the diagnosis of PCOS, then standardized training modules should be implemented to unify the approach to evaluating polycystic ovarian morphology.

  11. SU-E-J-266: Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) Inter-Scan and Inter-Observer Tumor Volume Variability Assessment in Patients Treated with Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Early Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Y; Aileen, C; Kozono, D; Killoran, J; Wagar, M; Lee, S; Hacker, F; Aerts, H; Lewis, J; Mak, R [Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Quantification of volume changes on CBCT during SBRT for NSCLC may provide a useful radiological marker for radiation response and adaptive treatment planning, but the reproducibility of CBCT volume delineation is a concern. This study is to quantify inter-scan/inter-observer variability in tumor volume delineation on CBCT. Methods: Twenty earlystage (stage I and II) NSCLC patients were included in this analysis. All patients were treated with SBRT with a median dose of 54 Gy in 3 to 5 fractions. Two physicians independently manually contoured the primary gross tumor volume on CBCTs taken immediately before SBRT treatment (Pre) and after the same SBRT treatment (Post). Absolute volume differences (AVD) were calculated between the Pre and Post CBCTs for a given treatment to quantify inter-scan variability, and then between the two observers for a given CBCT to quantify inter-observer variability. AVD was also normalized with respect to average volume to obtain relative volume differences (RVD). Bland-Altman approach was used to evaluate variability. All statistics were calculated with SAS version 9.4. Results: The 95% limit of agreement (mean ± 2SD) on AVD and RVD measurements between Pre and Post scans were −0.32cc to 0.32cc and −0.5% to 0.5% versus −1.9 cc to 1.8 cc and −15.9% to 15.3% for the two observers respectively. The 95% limit of agreement of AVD and RVD between the two observers were −3.3 cc to 2.3 cc and −42.4% to 28.2% respectively. The greatest variability in inter-scan RVD was observed with very small tumors (< 5 cc). Conclusion: Inter-scan variability in RVD is greatest with small tumors. Inter-observer variability was larger than inter-scan variability. The 95% limit of agreement for inter-observer and inter-scan variability (∼15–30%) helps define a threshold for clinically meaningful change in tumor volume to assess SBRT response, with larger thresholds needed for very small tumors. Part of the work was funded by a Kaye

  12. Factors confusing the diagnosis of laryngopharyngeal reflux: the role of allergic rhinitis and inter-rater variability of laryngeal findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eren, Erdem; Arslanoğlu, Seçil; Aktaş, Ayşe; Kopar, Aylin; Ciğer, Ejder; Önal, Kazım; Katılmiş, Hüseyin

    2014-04-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the inter-rater variability in assessment of laryngeal findings and whether diagnosing laryngopharyngeal reflux based on the laryngeal findings and history alone without considering allergic rhinitis leads to the overdiagnosis and overtreatment of laryngopharyngeal reflux. Patients with positive and negative skin prick tests were recruited from an allergy clinic in a tertiary teaching university hospital. All subjects completed the Reflux Symptom Index (RSI) and underwent laryngeal examinations by three physicians blinded to the skin prick test results and the Reflux Finding Score (RFS) was determined. RFS >7 or RSI >13 was considered reflux positive. Fleiss' kappa (κ) was used to measure inter-rater agreement. The inter-rater agreement was low for pseudosulcus vocalis (κ = 0.078), ventricular obliteration (κ = 0.206), diffuse laryngeal edema (κ = 0.204), and posterior laryngeal hypertrophy (κ = 0.27), intermediate for laryngeal erythema/hyperemia (κ = 0.42) and vocal fold edema (κ = 0.42), and high for thick endolaryngeal mucus (κ = 0.61). Although the frequency of allergy was high, there was no significant difference between allergy-positive and laryngopharyngeal reflux-positive patients. On logistic regression analysis, thick endolaryngeal mucus was a significant predictor of allergy (p = 0.012, odds ratio 0.264, 95 % confidence interval 0.093-0.74). The laryngeal examination for reflux is subject to marked inter-rater variability and allergic laryngitis was not misdiagnosed as laryngopharyngeal reflux. The presence of thick endolaryngeal mucus should alert physicians to the possibility of allergic rhinitis/laryngitis.

  13. Stability of FDG-PET Radiomics features - An integrated analysis of test-retest and inter-observer variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leijenaar, Ralph T. H.; Carvalho, Sara; Rios Velazquez, Emmanuel [Dept. of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht Univ. Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands)] [and others

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Besides basic measurements as maximum standardized uptake value (SUV){sub max} or SUV{sub mean} derived from 18F-FDG positron emission tomography (PET) scans, more advanced quantitative imaging features (i.e. 'Radiomics' features) are increasingly investigated for treatment monitoring, outcome prediction, or as potential biomarkers. With these prospected applications of Radiomics features, it is a requisite that they provide robust and reliable measurements. The aim of our study was therefore to perform an integrated stability analysis of a large number of PET-derived features in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), based on both a test-retest and an inter-observer setup. Methods: Eleven NSCLC patients were included in the test-retest cohort. Patients underwent repeated PET imaging within a one day interval, before any treatment was delivered. Lesions were delineated by applying a threshold of 50 % of the maximum uptake value within the tumor. Twenty-three NSCLC patients were included in the inter-observer cohort. Patients underwent a diagnostic whole body PET-computed tomography (CT). Lesions were manually delineated based on fused PET-CT, using a standardized clinical delineation protocol. Delineation was performed independently by five observers, blinded to each other. Fifteen first order statistics, 39 descriptors of intensity volume histograms, eight geometric features and 44 textural features were extracted. For every feature, test-retest and inter-observer stability was assessed with the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and the coefficient of variability, normalized to mean and range. Similarity between test-retest and inter-observer stability rankings of features was assessed with Spear man's rank correlation coefficient. Results: Results showed that the majority of assessed features had both a high test-retest (71%) and inter-observer (91%) stability in terms of their ICC. Overall, features more stable in repeated PET

  14. Atmospheric mercury measurements at a suburban site in the Mid-Atlantic United States: Inter-annual, seasonal and diurnal variations and source-receptor relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Xinrong; Luke, Winston T.; Kelley, Paul; Cohen, Mark D.; Artz, Richard; Olson, Mark L.; Schmeltz, David; Puchalski, Melissa; Goldberg, Daniel L.; Ring, Allison; Mazzuca, Gina M.; Cummings, Kristin A.; Wojdan, Lisa; Preaux, Sandra; Stehr, Jeff W.

    2016-12-01

    Different atmospheric mercury forms have been measured at a suburban site in Beltsville, Maryland in the Mid-Atlantic United States since 2007 to investigate their inter-annual, seasonal and diurnal variabilities. Average concentrations and standard deviations of hourly measurements from 2007 to 2015 were 1.41 ± 0.23 ng m-3 for gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), 4.6 ± 33.7 pg m-3 for gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM), and 8.6 ± 56.8 pg m-3 for particulate-bound mercury (PBM). Observations show that on average, the rates of decrease were 0.020 ± 0.007 ng m-3 yr-1 (or 1.3 ± 0.5% yr-1, statistically significant, p-value 0.01) for PBM over this nine-year period. In addition, the collocated annual mercury wet deposition decreased at a rate of 0.51 ± 0.24 μg m-2 yr-2 (or 4.2 ± 1.9% yr-1, statistically insignificant, p-value > 0.01). Diurnal variation of GEM shows a slight peak in the morning, likely due to the shallow boundary layer. Seasonal variation of GEM shows lower levels in fall. Both diurnal variations of GOM and PBM show peaks in the afternoon likely due to the photochemical production of reactive mercury from the oxidation of GEM and the influence of boundary layer processes. Seasonally, GOM measurements show high levels in spring and constant low levels in the other three seasons, while PBM measurements exhibit higher levels from late fall to early spring and lower levels from late spring to fall. These measurement data were analyzed using the HYSPLIT back trajectory model in order to examine possible source-receptor relationships at this suburban site. Trajectory frequency analysis shows that high GEM/GOM/PBM events were generally associated with high frequencies of the trajectories passing through areas with high mercury emissions, while low GEM/GOM/PBM levels were largely associated the trajectories passing through relatively clean areas. This study indicates that local and regional sources appear to have a significant impact on the site and these

  15. Image processing in digital pathology: an opportunity to solve inter-batch variability of immunohistochemical staining

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Eycke, Yves-Rémi; Allard, Justine; Salmon, Isabelle; Debeir, Olivier; Decaestecker, Christine

    2017-02-01

    Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is a widely used technique in pathology to evidence protein expression in tissue samples. However, this staining technique is known for presenting inter-batch variations. Whole slide imaging in digital pathology offers a possibility to overcome this problem by means of image normalisation techniques. In the present paper we propose a methodology to objectively evaluate the need of image normalisation and to identify the best way to perform it. This methodology uses tissue microarray (TMA) materials and statistical analyses to evidence the possible variations occurring at colour and intensity levels as well as to evaluate the efficiency of image normalisation methods in correcting them. We applied our methodology to test different methods of image normalisation based on blind colour deconvolution that we adapted for IHC staining. These tests were carried out for different IHC experiments on different tissue types and targeting different proteins with different subcellular localisations. Our methodology enabled us to establish and to validate inter-batch normalization transforms which correct the non-relevant IHC staining variations. The normalised image series were then processed to extract coherent quantitative features characterising the IHC staining patterns.

  16. Inter-operator Variability in Defining Uterine Position Using Three-dimensional Ultrasound Imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, Mariwan; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Behrens, Claus F.

    2013-01-01

    for daily laser alignment. In each session the US-scans were acquired by the seven operators. The uterus was outlined in each of the US imagesets using Clarity autosegmentation in the workstation. Further, the shifts in the uterine centre of mass relative to the reference were measured for the three...... orthogonal directions; left (+)-right (LR), anterior (+)-posterior (AP), and inferior (+)-superior (IS), respectively. The same operator delineated the target volumes. The average inter-operator deviation ±1SD of the daily US scans was (in mm); LR: day 1 (-0.4±0.9), day 2 (-0.3±0.6), day 3 (- 1.0±1.2), day 4...... (1.3±0.5); AP: day 1 (0.0±1.7), day 2 (0.1±0.7), day 3 (-1.0±0.9), day 4 (0.2±1.2); IS: day 1 (-1.5±2.6), day 2 (0.1±1.8), day 3 (0.1±1.1), day 4 (0.5±3.1), respectively. The largest inter-operator discordance was observed to be 4.7 mm in the IS-direction in day 4. Published studies report...

  17. Image processing in digital pathology: an opportunity to solve inter-batch variability of immunohistochemical staining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eycke, Yves-Rémi; Allard, Justine; Salmon, Isabelle; Debeir, Olivier; Decaestecker, Christine

    2017-02-21

    Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is a widely used technique in pathology to evidence protein expression in tissue samples. However, this staining technique is known for presenting inter-batch variations. Whole slide imaging in digital pathology offers a possibility to overcome this problem by means of image normalisation techniques. In the present paper we propose a methodology to objectively evaluate the need of image normalisation and to identify the best way to perform it. This methodology uses tissue microarray (TMA) materials and statistical analyses to evidence the possible variations occurring at colour and intensity levels as well as to evaluate the efficiency of image normalisation methods in correcting them. We applied our methodology to test different methods of image normalisation based on blind colour deconvolution that we adapted for IHC staining. These tests were carried out for different IHC experiments on different tissue types and targeting different proteins with different subcellular localisations. Our methodology enabled us to establish and to validate inter-batch normalization transforms which correct the non-relevant IHC staining variations. The normalised image series were then processed to extract coherent quantitative features characterising the IHC staining patterns.

  18. SU-E-J-176: Characterization of Inter-Fraction Breast Variability and the Implications On Delivered Dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sudhoff, M; Lamba, M; Kumar, N; Ward, A; Elson, H [University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To systematically characterize inter-fraction breast variability and determine implications on delivered dose. Methods: Weekly port films were used to characterize breast setup variability. Five evenly spaced representative positions across the contour of each breast were chosen on the electronic port film in reference to graticule, and window and level was set such that the skin surface of the breast was visible. Measurements from the skin surface to treatment field edge were taken on each port film at each position and compared to the planning DRR, quantifying the variability. The systematic measurement technique was repeated for all port films for 20 recently treated breast cancer patients. Measured setup variability for each patient was modeled as a normal distribution. The distribution was randomly sampled from the model and applied as isocentric shifts in the treatment planning computer, representing setup variability for each fraction. Dose was calculated for each shifted fraction and summed to obtain DVHs and BEDs that modeled the dose with daily setup variability. Patients were categorized in to relevant groupings that were chosen to investigate the rigorousness of immobilization types, treatment techniques, and inherent anatomical difficulties. Mean position differences and dosimetric differences were evaluated between planned and delivered doses. Results: The setup variability was found to follow a normal distribution with mean position differences between the DRR and port film between − 8.6–3.5 mm with sigma range of 5.3–9.8 mm. Setup position was not found to be significantly different than zero. The mean seroma or whole breast PTV dosimetric difference, calculated as BED, ranged from a −0.23 to +1.13Gy. Conclusion: A systematic technique to quantify and model setup variability was used to calculate the dose in 20 breast cancer patients including variable setup. No statistically significant PTV or OAR BED differences were found between

  19. Inter-observer variability in contouring the penile bulb on CT images for prostate cancer treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perna, Lucia; Cozzarini, Cesare; Maggiulli, Eleonora; Fellin, Gianni; Rancati, Tiziana; Valdagni, Riccardo; Vavassori, Vittorio; Villa, Sergio; Fiorino, Claudio

    2011-09-24

    Several investigations have recently suggested the existence of a correlation between the dose received by the penile bulb (PB) and the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED) after radical radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate carcinoma. A prospective multi-Institute study (DUE-01) was implemented with the aim to assess the predictive parameters of ED. Previously, an evaluation of inter-observer variations of PB contouring was mandatory in order to quantify its impact on PB dose-volume parameters by means of a dummy run exercise. Fifteen observers, from different Institutes, drew the PB on the planning CT images of ten patients; inter-observer variations were analysed in terms of PB volume variation and cranial/caudal limits. 3DCRT treatment plans were simulated to evaluate the impact of PB contouring inter-variability on dose-volume statistics parameters. For DVH analysis the values of PB mean dose and the volume of PB receiving more than 50 Gy and 70 Gy (V50 and V70, respectively) were considered. Systematic differences from the average values were assessed by the Wilcoxon test. Seven observers systematically overestimated or underestimated the PB volume with deviations from the average volumes ranging between -48% and +34% (p V50 and V70 respectively. In conclusion, despite the large inter-observer variation in contouring PB, a large multi-centric study may have the possibility to detect a possible correlation between PB % dose-volume parameters and ED. The impact of contouring uncertainty could be reduced by "a posteriori" contouring from a single observer or by introducing Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) in the planning procedures and/or in improving the skill of observers through post-dummy run tutoring of those observers showing large systematic deviations from the mean.

  20. Observed inter-camera variability of clinically relevant performance characteristics for Siemens Symbia gamma cameras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappadath, S Cheenu; Erwin, William D; Wendt, Richard E

    2006-11-28

    We conducted an evaluation of the intercamera (i.e., between cameras) variability in clinically relevant performance characteristics for Symbia gamma cameras (Siemens Medical Solutions, Malvern, PA) based on measurements made using nine separate systems. The significance of the observed intercamera variability was determined by comparing it to the intracamera (i.e., within a single camera) variability. Measurements of performance characteristics were based on the standards of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association and reports 6, 9, 22, and 52 from the American Association of Physicists in Medicine. All measurements were performed using 99mTc (except 57Co used for extrinsic resolution) and low-energy, high-resolution collimation. Of the nine cameras, four have crystals 3/8 in. thick and five have crystals 5/8 in. thick. We evaluated intrinsic energy resolution, intrinsic and extrinsic spatial resolution, intrinsic integral and differential flood uniformity over the useful field-of-view, count rate at 20% count loss, planar sensitivity, single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) resolution, and SPECT integral uniformity. The intracamera variability was estimated by repeated measurements of the performance characteristics on a single system. The significance of the observed intercamera variability was evaluated using the two-tailed F distribution. The planar sensitivity of the gamma cameras tested was found be variable at the 99.8% confidence level for both the 3/8-in. and 5/8-in. crystal systems. The integral uniformity and energy resolution were found to be variable only for the 5/8-in. crystal systems at the 98% and 90% confidence level, respectively. All other performance characteristics tested exhibited no significant variability between camera systems. The measured variability reported here could perhaps be used to define nominal performance values of Symbia gamma cameras for planar and SPECT imaging.

  1. Synchronizing the transcranial magnetic pulse with electroencephalographic recordings effectively reduces inter-trial variability of the pulse artefact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomasevic, Leo; Takemi, Mitsuaki; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Electroencephalography (EEG) can capture the cortical response evoked by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). The TMS pulse provokes a large artefact, which obscures the cortical response in the first milliseconds after TMS. Removing this artefact remains a challenge. METHODS: We...... were tested at 10 and 20 kHz using the head phantom. We also tested the effect of a soft sheet placed between the stimulation coil and recording electrodes in both human and melon. RESULTS & CONCLUSION: Synchronizing TMS and data acquisition markedly reduced trial-to-trial variability of the pulse......-to-trial variability renders it possible to create an artefact template for off-line filtering. Template-based subtraction of the artefact from the EEG signals is a prerequisite to effectively recover the immediate physiological response in the stimulated cortex and inter-connected areas....

  2. Elephant overflows: Multi-annual variability in Weddell Sea Deep Water driven by surface forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijers, Andrew; Meredith, Michael; Abrahamsen, Povl; Naviera-Garabato, Alberto; Ángel Morales Maqueda, Miguel; Polzin, Kurt

    2015-04-01

    The volume of the deepest and densest water mass in Drake Passage, Lower Weddell Sea Deep Water (LWSDW), is shown to have been decreasing over the last 20 years of observations, with an associated reduction in density driven by freshening. Superimposed on this long term trend is a multi-annual oscillation with a period of 3-5 years. This variability only appears in Drake Passage; observations in the east of the Scotia Sea show a similar long term trend, but with no apparent multi-annual variability. Clues as to the source of this variability may be found on the continental slope at approximately 1000 m immediately north of Elephant Island on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here there is an intermittent westward flowing cold/fresh slope current whose volume and properties are strongly correlated with the LWSDW multi-annual variability, although leading the LWSDW by around one year. As the slope current and LWSDW are separated from each other both geographically and in water mass characteristics, their co-variability implies that they are responding to a common forcing, while the lag between deep LWSDW and shallow slope current provides information on the timescale of this response. A newly available high resolution temperature and salinity multi-year time series from the Elephant Island slope at 1000 m is compared with reanalysis and model derived surface fluxes, sea ice extent and wind stress. We find that there are strong positive relationships between the surface wind stress and heat flux over the shelf at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and the properties of the slope current at 1000 m on seasonal to annual timescales. We use tracer release experiments in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) model to investigate the lag between the slope current and LWSDW timeseries and hypothesise that the observed multi-annual variability in both water masses is driven by surface forcing over the shelf and the overflow of modified water from the slope in

  3. Quantifying inter- and intra-population niche variability using hierarchical bayesian stable isotope mixing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X; Ward, Eric J; Moore, Jonathan W; Darimont, Chris T

    2009-07-09

    Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population.

  4. The global structure of the annual and semiannual sea surface height variability from Geosat altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Gregg A.; Born, George H.; Parke, Mike E.; Allen, Patrick C.

    1992-01-01

    Two years of data from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission are employed to study the annual and semiannual variability of sea-surface height on a global basis. The data are treated with atmospheric corrections and interpolations, and the orbit error of about 40 cm RMS is purged. The spatial variability of the Geosat data is constructed for particular frequencies, and the estimate of the M2 tidal error indicates that the error is aliased to 1.15 cycles/yr and has an unusual spatial pattern. Sine and cosine coefficients are derived for the annual and semiannual frequencies by means of a least squares fit yielding the amplitude and phase of the changes in sea-surface height. A 180-deg phase difference is noted between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the annual variability, and large-scale westward propagating waves are identified. The Geosat data also indicate the phase relationships between major current systems and the systems of variations at work in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

  5. Variability of inter-team distances associated with match events in elite-standard soccer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frencken, Wouter; De Poel, Harjo; Visscher, Chris; Lemmink, Koen

    2012-01-01

    In soccer, critical match events like goal attempts can be preceded by periods of instability in the balance between the two teams' behaviours. Therefore, we determined periods of high variability in the distance between the teams' centroid positions longitudinally and laterally in an international-

  6. MRI assessment of tenosynovitis in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: inter- and intra-observer variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambot, Karen; Brunelle, Francis [Hopital Necker-Enfants Malades, Department of Paediatric Radiology, Paris (France); Boavida, Peter [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Damasio, Maria Beatrice [Ospedale Pediatrico Gaslini, Department of Radiology, Genoa (Italy); Tanturri de Horatio, Laura; Barbuti, Domenico [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Radiology, Rome (Italy); Desgranges, Marie; Bader-Meunier, Brigitte; Quartier, Pierre [Hopital Necker-Enfants Malades, Department of Paediatric Immunology, Hematology and Rheumatology, APHP French Reference Center ' ' Arthrites juveniles' ' , Paris (France); Malattia, Clara [University of Genoa, Department of Paediatrics, Genoa (Italy); Bracaglia, Claudia [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Paediatrics, Rome (Italy); Ording Mueller, Lil-Sofie [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); University Hospital of North Norway, Department of Radiology, Tromsoe (Norway); Elie, Caroline [Paris Descartes University, Department of Biostatistics, Hopital Necker-Enfants Malades, Paris (France); Rosendahl, Karen [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Bergen (Norway)

    2013-07-15

    There is sparse knowledge about grading tenosynovitis using MRI. The purpose of this study was to assess the reliability of a tenosynovitis MRI scoring system in juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis and wrist involvement were enrolled in two paediatric centres, from October 2006 to January 2010. The extensor (compartments II, IV and VI) and flexor tendons were assessed for the presence of tenosynovitis on T1-weighted postcontrast fat-saturated MR images and were scored from 0 (normal) to 2 (moderate to severe) by two observers independently. Intra- and interobserver agreement was assessed. Ninety children (age range: 5-18.5 years) were included, of whom 34 had tenosynovitis involving extensors and 28 had tenosynovitis involving flexors. A total of 360 tendon areas were analysed, of which 114 had tenosynovitis (86/270 extensors and 28/90 flexors). Intra-reader 1 agreement was excellent for the extensors (k = 0.82-0.91) and for the flexors (k = 0.85); intra-reader 2 agreement was moderate to good for the extensors (k = 0.51-0.72) and good for the flexors (k = 0.64). Inter-reader agreement was good for the extensors (k = 0.69-0.73) and moderate for the flexors (k = 0.49). The proposed MRI scoring system for the assessment of wrist tenosynovitis in juvenile idiopathic arthritis appears feasible with an observer agreement sufficient for clinical use. (orig.)

  7. Comparison of inter subject variability and reproducibility of whole brain proton spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veenith, Tonny V; Mada, Marius; Carter, Eleanor; Grossac, Julia; Newcombe, Virginia; Outtrim, Joanne; Lupson, Victoria; Nallapareddy, Sridhar; Williams, Guy B; Sheriff, Sulaiman; Menon, David K; Maudsley, Andrew A; Coles, Jonathan P

    2014-01-01

    The aim of these studies was to provide reference data on intersubject variability and reproducibility of metabolite ratios for Choline/Creatine (Cho/Cr), N-acetyl aspartate/Choline (NAA/Cho) and N-acetyl aspartate/Creatine (NAA/Cr), and individual signal-intensity normalised metabolite concentrations of NAA, Cho and Cr. Healthy volunteers underwent imaging on two occasions using the same 3T Siemens Verio magnetic resonance scanner. At each session two identical Metabolic Imaging and Data Acquisition Software (MIDAS) sequences were obtained along with standard structural imaging. Metabolite maps were created and regions of interest applied in normalised space. The baseline data from all 32 volunteers were used to calculate the intersubject variability, while within session and between session reproducibility were calculated from all the available data. The reproducibility of measurements were used to calculate the overall and within session 95% prediction interval for zero change. The within and between session reproducibility data were lower than the values for intersubject variability, and were variable across the different brain regions. The within and between session reproducibility measurements were similar for Cho/Cr, NAA/Choline, Cho and Cr (11.8%, 11.4%, 14.3 and 10.6% vs. 11.9%, 11.4%, 13.5% and 10.5% respectively), but for NAA/Creatine and NAA between session reproducibility was lower (9.3% and 9.1% vs. 10.1% and 9.9%; p <0.05). This study provides additional reference data that can be utilised in interventional studies to quantify change within a single imaging session, or to assess the significance of change in longitudinal studies of brain injury and disease.

  8. Using rain-on-snow events to evaluate the quality of bias correction to represent complex inter-variable dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rössler, Ole; Bosshard, Thomas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key issue for adaptation planning is the information of projections about changes of extremes. Climate projections of meteorological extremes and their downscaling are a challenge on their own. Yet - at least in hydrology - meteorological extremes are not necessarily hydrological extremes. These can also result from a sequence of days with only moderate meteorological conditions, too. This sequences are called "storylines". In climate change impact assess studies it is relevant to know, whether these meteorological storylines are represented in regional climate models, and how well can bias correction preserve or improve the representation. One storyline leading to hydrological extremes are rain-on-snow events, and more specifically rain-on-snowfall events. These events challenge the regional climate model and the bias correction in terms of representing absolute values and inter-variable dependences. This study makes use of the rain-on-snow-storylines to evaluate the performance of regional climate models and a bias correction method in reproducing complex inter-variable dependencies. At first, we applied a hydrological model to a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland that is known to be effected by rain-on-snow events. At second, the ERA-Interim driven regional climate model RCA4.5 - developed at SMHI - with a spatial resolution of 0.11 * 0.11 degree was used to drive the hydrological model. At third, bias-correction of the RCM was done applying the distribution based scaling (DBS) bias-correction method (Yang et al., 2010) developed at the SMHI. The bias-corrected data then also served as driving input data to the hydrological model. Based on the simulated runoff, as well as simulated precipitation, temperature, and snow pack data, an algorithm to detect rain-on-snow events was applied. Finally, the presence or absents of rain-on-snow events for the three different climate input data, ERA.RCA4.5, DBS corrected ERA.RC4 and observed climate, are evaluated within

  9. MRI assessment of bone marrow in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: intra- and inter-observer variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanturri de Horatio, Laura; Barbuti, Domenico; Toma, Paolo [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Radiology, Rome (Italy); Damasio, Maria Beatrice [Ospedale G. Gaslini, Department of Radiology, Genoa (Italy); Bracaglia, Claudia [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Paediatrics, Rome (Italy); Lambot-Juhan, Karen [Hopital Necker-Enfants Malades, Department of Radiology, Paris (France); Boavida, Peter [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Ording Mueller, Lil-Sofie [University Hospital North Norway, Department of Radiology, Tromsoe (Norway); Malattia, Clara [Ospedale G. Gaslini, Department of Pediatrics, Genoa (Italy); Rava, Lucilla [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Epidemiology, Rome (Italy); Rosendahl, Karen [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Pediatric Radiology, Bergen (Norway)

    2012-06-15

    Bone marrow oedema (BMO) is included in MRI-based scoring systems of disease activity in adults with rheumatoid arthritis. Similar systems in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) are lacking. To assess the reproducibility in a multi-centre setting of an MRI BMO scoring system in children with JIA. Seventy-six wrist MRIs were read twice, independently, by two experienced paediatric radiologists. BMO was defined as ill-defined lesions within the trabecular bone, returning high and low signal on T2- and T1-weighted images respectively, with or without contrast enhancement. BMO extension was scored for each of 14 bones at the wrist from 0 (none) to 3 (extensive). The intra-observer agreement was moderate to excellent, with weighted kappa ranging from 0.85 to 1.0 and 0.49 to 1.0 (readers 1 and 2 respectively), while the inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.41 to 0.79. The intra- and inter-observer intraclass correlation coefficients were excellent and satisfactory, respectively. The scoring system was reliable and may be used for grading bone marrow abnormality in JIA. The relatively large variability in aggregate scores, particularly between readers, underscores the need for thorough standardisation. (orig.)

  10. Inter-individual variability of stone marten behavioral responses to a highway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ascensão

    Full Text Available Efforts to reduce the negative impacts of roads on wildlife may be hindered if individuals within the population vary widely in their responses to roads and mitigation strategies ignore this variability. This knowledge is particularly important for medium-sized carnivores as they are vulnerable to road mortality, while also known to use available road passages (e.g., drainage culverts for safely crossing highways. Our goal in this study was to assess whether this apparently contradictory pattern of high road-kill numbers associated with a regular use of road passages is attributable to the variation in behavioral responses toward the highway between individuals. We investigated the responses of seven radio-tracked stone martens (Martes foina to a highway by measuring their utilization distribution, response turning angles and highway crossing patterns. We compared the observed responses to simulated movement parameterized by the observed space use and movement characteristics of each individual, but naïve to the presence of the highway. Our results suggested that martens demonstrate a diversity of responses to the highway, including attraction, indifference, or avoidance. Martens also varied in their highway crossing patterns, with some crossing repeatedly at the same location (often coincident with highway passages. We suspect that the response variability derives from the individual's familiarity of the landscape, including their awareness of highway passage locations. Because of these variable yet potentially attributable responses, we support the use of exclusionary fencing to guide transient (e.g., dispersers individuals to existing passages to reduce the road-kill risk.

  11. Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

    2010-12-01

    The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to

  12. Analysing inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Dondeynaz

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The "Integrated Water Resources Management" principle was formally laid down at the International Conference on Water and Sustainable development in Dublin 1992. One of the main results of this conference is that improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS, being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation. These sectors influence or are influenced by the access to WSS. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC has developed a new database (WatSan4Dev database containing 42 indicators (called variables in this paper from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data in developing countries. This paper describes the development of the WatSan4Dev dataset, the statistical processes needed to improve the data quality, and finally, the analysis to verify the database coherence is presented. Based on 25 relevant variables, the relationships between variables are described and organised into five factors (HDP – Human Development against Poverty, AP – Human Activity Pressure on water resources, WR – Water Resources, ODA – Official Development Aid, CEC – Country Environmental Concern. Linear regression methods are used to identify key variables having influence on water supply and sanitation. First analysis indicates that the informal urbanisation development is an important factor negatively influencing the percentage of the population having access to WSS. Health, and in particular children's health, benefits from the improvement of WSS. Irrigation is also enhancing Water Supply service thanks to multi-purpose infrastructure. Five country profiles are also created to deeper understand and synthetize the amount of information gathered

  13. Analysing inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondeynaz, C.; Carmona Moreno, C.; Céspedes Lorente, J. J.

    2012-10-01

    The "Integrated Water Resources Management" principle was formally laid down at the International Conference on Water and Sustainable development in Dublin 1992. One of the main results of this conference is that improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). These sectors influence or are influenced by the access to WSS. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed a new database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 42 indicators (called variables in this paper) from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data in developing countries. This paper describes the development of the WatSan4Dev dataset, the statistical processes needed to improve the data quality, and finally, the analysis to verify the database coherence is presented. Based on 25 relevant variables, the relationships between variables are described and organised into five factors (HDP - Human Development against Poverty, AP - Human Activity Pressure on water resources, WR - Water Resources, ODA - Official Development Aid, CEC - Country Environmental Concern). Linear regression methods are used to identify key variables having influence on water supply and sanitation. First analysis indicates that the informal urbanisation development is an important factor negatively influencing the percentage of the population having access to WSS. Health, and in particular children's health, benefits from the improvement of WSS. Irrigation is also enhancing Water Supply service thanks to multi-purpose infrastructure. Five country profiles are also created to deeper understand and synthetize the amount of information gathered. This new

  14. Assessment of Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Trends and Variability in Sharjah City, UAE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarek Merabtene

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Although a few studies on rainfall spatial and temporal variability in the UAE have been carried out, evidence of the impact of climate change on rainfall trends has not been reported. This study aims at assessing the significance of long-term rainfall trends and temporal variability at Sharjah City, UAE. Annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall extending over a period of 81 years (1934–2014 recorded at Sharjah International Airport have been analyzed. To this end, several parametric and nonparametric statistical measures have been applied following systematic data quality assessment. The analyses revealed that the annual rainfall trend decreased from −3 mm to −9.4 mm per decade over the study periods. The decreasing annual rainfall trend is mainly driven by the significant drop in winter rainfall, particularly during the period from 1977 to 2014. The results also indicate that high probability extreme events have shifted toward low frequency (12.7 years with significant variations in monthly rainfall patterns and periodicity. The findings of the present study suggest reevaluating the derivation of design rainfall for infrastructure of Sharjah City and urge developing an integrated framework for its water resources planning and risk under climate change impacts scenarios.

  15. Inter- and intra-observer variability in prostate definition with tissue harmonic and brightness mode imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandhu, Gurpreet Kaur; Dunscombe, Peter; Meyer, Tyler; Pavamani, Simon; Khan, Rao

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the relative utility of tissue harmonic (H) and brightness (B) transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) images of the prostate by studying interobserver and intraobserver variation in prostate delineation. Ten patients with early-stage disease were randomly selected. TRUS images of prostates were acquired using B and H modes. The prostates on all images were contoured by an experienced radiation oncologist (RO) and five equally trained observers. The observers were blinded to information regarding patient and imaging mode. The volumes of prostate glands and areas of midgland slices were calculated. Volumes contoured were compared among the observers and between observer group and RO. Contours on one patient were repeated five times by four observers to evaluate the intraobserver variability. A one-sample Student t-test showed the volumes outlined by five observers are in agreement (p > 0.05) with the RO. Paired Student t-test showed prostate volumes (p = 0.008) and midgland areas (p = 0.006) with H mode were significantly smaller than that with B mode. Two-factor analysis of variances showed significant interobserver variability (p harmonic imaging has not proven advantageous for all cases, its utilization seems to be judicious for small prostates. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Description, evaluation and clinical decision making according to various fetal heart rate patterns. Inter-observer and regional variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lidegaard, O; Bøttcher, L M; Weber, Tom

    1992-01-01

    departments, especially between departments far apart. It is concluded that we still need a scientific clarification of which specific heart rate changes are the best predictors of fetal stress. Artificial intelligence programs for interpreting fetal cardiotocograms and ECG signals constitute one promising......At 10 Danish obstetrical departments, 116 residents (42 senior and 74 junior) participated in a study to assess inter-observer and regional variability in the description and evaluation of and clinical decision regarding 11 fetal heart rate patterns. The 11 traces included normal as well...... as pathological patterns, and normal as well as clinically asphyxiated babies. Five antepartum and six intrapartum patterns were included. A total of 1,276 descriptions and evaluations were obtained. The degree of agreement in description of fetal heart rate changes was high regarding the baseline...

  17. Description, evaluation and clinical decision making according to various fetal heart rate patterns. Inter-observer and regional variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1992-01-01

    departments, especially between departments far apart. It is concluded that we still need a scientific clarification of which specific heart rate changes are the best predictors of fetal stress. Artificial intelligence programs for interpreting fetal cardiotocograms and ECG signals constitute one promising......At 10 Danish obstetrical departments, 116 residents (42 senior and 74 junior) participated in a study to assess inter-observer and regional variability in the description and evaluation of and clinical decision regarding 11 fetal heart rate patterns. The 11 traces included normal as well...... as pathological patterns, and normal as well as clinically asphyxiated babies. Five antepartum and six intrapartum patterns were included. A total of 1,276 descriptions and evaluations were obtained. The degree of agreement in description of fetal heart rate changes was high regarding the baseline...

  18. Satellite-Based Observations of Inter-annual Variation of Vegetation Water Content and Productivity in Northern Asia During 1998-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, X.; Braswell, B. H.; Zhang, Q.; Boles, S.; Frolking, S.; Moore, B.

    2002-05-01

    The terrestrial biosphere was largely carbon neutral during the 1980s, but became a much stronger net carbon sink in the 1990s. It is also thought that the unusually large carbon sink in the early 1990s can be largely attributed to climate variability. We analyzed multi-temporal images (1-km spatial resolution, 10-day composites) from the SPOT-4 VEGETATION (VGT) sensor over the period of April 1, 1998 to September 30, 2001 to characterize spatial and temporal variations of vegetation and water indices for Northern Asia (40oN - 75oN, and 45oE - 179oE). Three remote sensing proxies were derived from the VGT data: Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). We calculated anomalies of NDWI, NDVI and EVI at different temporal scales, i.e., 10-day, monthly, seasonal and plant growing season (April to September), and compared these with inter-annual variations in precipitation and temperature from the National Climate Data Center Global History Climate Network. Both anomalies of precipitation and NDWI over plant growing season (April to September) for Northern Asia were highest in 1998 but declined from 1999 to 2001. NDVI and EVI anomalies did not correlate well with each other overall. The EVI anomaly over plant growing season (April to September) was highest in 1998, and declined from 1999 to 2001,while the NDVI anomaly over plant growing season was lowest in 1998 and highest in 2000 for North Asia. The EVI includes information from the VGT blue band to account for the effects of residual atmospheric contamination (e.g., aerosols) and soil/vegetation background, while the NDVI does not. Large fires occurred in eastern Russia and Northeastern China in 1998 and may have increased the atmospheric aerosol burden; high precipitation in that year may have been associated with increased atmospheric water vapor. Both of these effects would lower the NDVI value in 1998. This continental-scale study

  19. Differential responses of seabirds to inter-annual environmental change in the continental shelf and oceanic habitats of southeastern Bering Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Yamamoto

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal sea-ice cover has been decreasing in the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, which might affect ecosystem dynamics and availability of food resources to marine top predators breeding in the region. In this study, we investigated the foraging responses of two seabird species, surface-foraging red-legged kittiwakes Rissa brevirostris (hereafter, RLKI and pursuit-diving foraging thick-billed murres Uria lomvia (TBMU to the inter-annual change in environmental conditions. Between the study years, winter ice retreated earlier and summer water temperatures were warmer in 2014 compared to those in 2013. At-sea distributions of RLKI and TBMU breeding on St. George Island, the largest seabird colony in the region, were recorded using GPS loggers, and blood samples were taken to examine their physiological condition and isotopic foraging niche in a given year. RLKI foraging occurred mostly over the oceanic basin in both years. TBMU, however, foraged mostly over the shelf, but showed a relatively higher use of the shelf break and oceanic basin in the colder year, 2013. The foraging distances from the colony peaked at 250–300 km in 2013 and, bimodally, at 150–250 and 300–350 km in 2014 for RLKI, and tended to be farther in 2013 compared to those in 2014 for TBMU. Plasma levels of corticosterone did not differ between years in RLKI, but differed in TBMU, showing higher levels of physiological stress incurred by murres during the colder year, 2013. δ13N (a proxy of trophic level of prey did not differ between the years in either RLKI or TBMU, while δ13C (a proxy of prey origin were lower in 2014 than in 2013 in both species, suggesting possible differences in influx of oceanic prey items into foraging areas. These results suggest that the response of ecosystem dynamics to climate variability in the southeast Bering Sea may differ between the ocean basin and continental shelf regions, which, in turn, may generate differential responses in seabirds

  20. Exploring the genetic variability in water use efficiency: Evaluation of inter and intra cultivar genetic diversity in grapevines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tortosa, Ignacio; Escalona, José Mariano; Bota, Josefina; Tomás, Magdalena; Hernández, Esther; Escudero, Enrique García; Medrano, Hipólito

    2016-10-01

    Genetic improvement of crop Water Use Efficiency (WUE) is a general goal because the increasing water scarcity and the trend to a more sustainable agriculture. For grapevines, this subject is relevant and need an urgent response because their wide distribution in semi-arid areas. New cultivars are difficult to introduce in viticulture due to the narrow dependency of consumer appreciation often linked to a certain particular wine taste. Clones of reputed cultivars would presumably be more accepted but little is known on the intra-cultivar genetic variability of the WUE. The present work compares, on the basis of two field assays, the variability of intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi) in a large collection of cultivars in contrast with a collection of clones of Tempranillo cultivar. The results show that clonal variability of WUEi was around 80% of the inter-cultivar, thus providing a first assessment on the opportunity for clonal selection by WUE. Plotting the WUEi data against stem water potential or stomatal conductance it was possible to identify cultivars and clones out of the confidence intervals of this linear regression thus with significantly higher and lower WUEi values. The present results contribute to open the expectative for a genetic improvement of grapevine WUE. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Demandas de urgencias clínicas: Algunas variables de interés

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Pereda Rodríguez

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Se realizó un estudio descriptivo analítico de la demanda asistencial en el área de medicina interna de los Servicios de Urgencia, en el Hospital "Dr. Luis Díaz Soto" y el Policlínico "Dr. Mario Escalona Reguera", durante el período comprendido entre las 8:00 h del día 29/5/95 y las 7:59 h del 3/6/95. Con el objetivo de conocer el comportamiento de la demanda se estudió su distribución en cuanto a edad, sexo, grupos horarios (laboral y extralaboral y días de la semana. Se concluyó que no existe asociación estadística entre la edad y el sexo, según la distribución de la demanda, no así entre las otras variables y los grupos horarios, donde se observaron diferencias altamente significativas con un predominio de pacientes en edades jóvenes que asistían principalmente durante el horario laboral. El día de mayor carga de trabajo fue el lunes.Summary A descriptive analytic study of the assistance demand in the area of internal medicine of the Emergency Service of "Dr. Luis Díaz Soto" Hospital and of "Dr. Mario Escalona Reguera" Polyclinic was conducted from May 29th, 1995, at 8 a.m., to June 3rd, 1995, at 7:59 a.m. In order to know the behaviour of the demand its distribution was studied taking into account age, sex, horary groups (working and nonworking hours and days of the week. It was concluded that there is no statistical association between age and sex, according to the demand distribution. However, highly significant differences were observed between the other variables and the horary groups. There was a predominance of young patients, who were attended mainly during the working hours. Monday was the day with the greatest working load.

  2. Variabilidade interensaios de dislipidemias em pacientes hipertensos Inter-assays variability of dislipidemias in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilton Rosini

    2009-08-01

    hipolipemiantes a serem adotadas.INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Different assays to evaluate dyslipidemia may show significant variations in the obtained results and a consequent inappropriate clinical approach may be adopted. This study aimed to compare the results of total cholesterol (CT, triglycerides (TG, HDL-C, Apo A1, Apo B, lipoprotein (a and lipidic indexes (not-HDL-C, CT/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C and Apo B/HDL-C of hypertensive and/or diabetic patients. METHODS: The following reactive kits and respective analyzers were applied to verify the reproducibility of results: Gold Analisa, DiaSys (CCX-ABBOTT, Dade Behring (Nephelometer BN 100 and Roche (COBAS Integra 400. Ninety nine patients (36 male and 63 female gender were investigated. Comparing the results, we observed that all mean numbers of lipid constituents showed a significant difference. A similar number of patients had high CT, TG, Lp (a and Apo A-1 serum levels. There was also disagreement in HDL-C, LDL-C, ApoB, CT/LDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C and TG/HDL-C indexes. For not-HDL-C and ApoB/HDL, there was similarity in the number of patients with not recommended values. As a consequence of this difference, the choice of therapeutic approach may be inappropriate as to LDL-C levels, whereas Not-HDL-C not only showed atherogenic particles but also a number of hypertensive patients with similar not recommended serum values, regardless of the methodology and the equipment used. CONCLUSION: In the analyzed group of hypertensive patients, not-HDL-C was an important inter assay correction factor of lipidic parameters. The association with Apo B/HDL-C relation may be an additional factor as to the choice of hypolipemiant treatments.

  3. Impact of intra- versus inter-annual snow depth variation on water relations and photosynthesis for two Great Basin Desert shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loik, Michael E; Griffith, Alden B; Alpert, Holly; Concilio, Amy L; Wade, Catherine E; Martinson, Sharon J

    2015-06-01

    Snowfall provides the majority of soil water in certain ecosystems of North America. We tested the hypothesis that snow depth variation affects soil water content, which in turn drives water potential (Ψ) and photosynthesis, over 10 years for two widespread shrubs of the western USA. Stem Ψ (Ψ stem) and photosynthetic gas exchange [stomatal conductance to water vapor (g s), and CO2 assimilation (A)] were measured in mid-June each year from 2004 to 2013 for Artemisia tridentata var. vaseyana (Asteraceae) and Purshia tridentata (Rosaceae). Snow fences were used to create increased or decreased snow depth plots. Snow depth on +snow plots was about twice that of ambient plots in most years, and 20 % lower on -snow plots, consistent with several down-scaled climate model projections. Maximal soil water content at 40- and 100-cm depths was correlated with February snow depth. For both species, multivariate ANOVA (MANOVA) showed that Ψ stem, g s, and A were significantly affected by intra-annual variation in snow depth. Within years, MANOVA showed that only A was significantly affected by spatial snow depth treatments for A. tridentata, and Ψ stem was significantly affected by snow depth for P. tridentata. Results show that stem water relations and photosynthetic gas exchange for these two cold desert shrub species in mid-June were more affected by inter-annual variation in snow depth by comparison to within-year spatial variation in snow depth. The results highlight the potential importance of changes in inter-annual variation in snowfall for future shrub photosynthesis in the western Great Basin Desert.

  4. Inter- and intra-specific variability in isoprene production and photosynthesis of Central European oak species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbrecher, R; Contran, N; Gugerli, F; Schnitzler, J-P; Zimmer, I; Menard, T; Günthardt-Goerg, M S

    2013-01-01

    European deciduous oaks are closely related and are known for their strong emission of volatile isoprenoids. They are chemo-taxonomically diverse, but hybridise frequently. Four-year-old oak seedlings growing together in a model ecosystem facility under near-natural conditions were studied. The leaves were morphologically classified in the three oak species Quercus robur, Q. pubescens and Q. petraea (with four provenances each) and further investigated by a molecular-genetic approach. Q. robur was morphologically and genetically clearly different from Q. pubescens and Q. petraea, whereas Q. pubescens and Q. petraea individuals used in this study were morphologically and genetically more similar. There was a minor impact of among and within species variability on isoprene synthesis, isoprene emission and photosynthesis. Isoprene emission rates normalised to 25 °C leaf temperature ranged from 5.78 to 10.66 nmol m(-2)  s(-1) , whereas photosynthesis ranged from 12.8 to 17.6 μmol m(-2)  s(-1) . On cloudy days, among the provenances of each species, only net photosynthesis of the Q. robur provenance Hünenberg was reduced and isoprene synthase activity of the Q. pubescens provenance Promotogno increased. On sunny days, photosynthesis did not differ among the provenances. Over all provenances, gas exchange on cloudy days did not differ significantly from sunny days. In the combined data of cloudy and sunny days, no differences between the studied provenances and oak species were detected in isoprene emission and photosynthesis. Thus, isoprene emission and photosynthesis rates were remarkably stable among oak species and provenances. The results indicate that taxonomic differences in the studied oak species are not reflected in isoprene emission and photosynthesis, probably because of the high plasticity of gene expression resulting in high phenotypic flexibility.

  5. Inter-hourly variability of Total Electron Content during the quiet condition over Nigeria, within the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayorinde, T. T.; Rabiu, A. B.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.

    2016-07-01

    The inter-hourly variability (IHV) of the Total Electron Content (TEC) over Nigeria during the quiet days (ApGNSS) Reference Network (NIGNET) operated by the office of the surveyor general of Nigeria. Nigeria is a country that lies within Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) region. The IHV was calculated by converting the observed hourly slant TEC (STEC) value into the hourly vertical TEC (VTEC) and the differencing (∆TEC) with its corresponding hourly value from the previous day. There is a clear variation which depicts the expected temporal variability. The IHV in TEC in all the stations ranges between 0 and 20 TECU (TEC Units). The seasonal variation of the IHV of TEC over Nigeria maximizes (5-20 TECU) during Equinoctial months and minimizes (1-10 TECU) during the Solstice months. The IHV of TEC in September equinox period is higher than that of March equinox. Minimum value of IHV (~7 TECU at equinoxes and ~5 TECU at Solstice) was recorded at the Office of Surveyor General of the Federation (OSGF) station and the maximum value (~12 TECU at equinoxes and ~16 TECU at Solstice) was recorded at the Birni Kebbi Federal Polytechnic (BKFP) station which may be due to the fact that BKFP at 0.72° dip latitude is closer to the dip equator.

  6. Evidence for inter- and intraspecies biofilm formation variability among a small group of coagulase-negative staphylococci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Fernando; Lima, Cláudia Afonso; Brás, Susana; França, Ângela; Cerca, Nuno

    2015-10-01

    Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) are common bacterial colonizers of the human skin. They are often involved in nosocomial infections due to biofilm formation in indwelling medical devices. While biofilm formation has been extensively studied in Staphylococcus epidermidis, little is known regarding other CoNS species. Here, biofilms from six different CoNS species were characterized in terms of biofilm composition and architecture. Interestingly, the ability to form a thick biofilm was not associated with any particular species, and high variability on biofilm accumulation was found within the same species. Cell viability assays also revealed different proportions of live and dead cells within biofilms formed by different species, although this parameter was particularly similar at the intraspecies level. On the other hand, biofilm disruption assays demonstrated important inter- and intraspecies differences regarding extracellular matrix composition. Lastly, confocal laser scanning microscopy experiments confirmed this variability, highlighting important differences and common features of CoNS biofilms. We hypothesized that the biofilm formation heterogeneity observed was rather associated with biofilm matrix composition than with cells themselves. Additionally, our results indicate that polysaccharides, DNA and proteins are fundamental pieces in the process of CoNS biofilm formation.

  7. Gait assessment using the Microsoft Xbox One Kinect: Concurrent validity and inter-day reliability of spatiotemporal and kinematic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentiplay, Benjamin F; Perraton, Luke G; Bower, Kelly J; Pua, Yong-Hao; McGaw, Rebekah; Heywood, Sophie; Clark, Ross A

    2015-07-16

    The revised Xbox One Kinect, also known as the Microsoft Kinect V2 for Windows, includes enhanced hardware which may improve its utility as a gait assessment tool. This study examined the concurrent validity and inter-day reliability of spatiotemporal and kinematic gait parameters estimated using the Kinect V2 automated body tracking system and a criterion reference three-dimensional motion analysis (3DMA) marker-based camera system. Thirty healthy adults performed two testing sessions consisting of comfortable and fast paced walking trials. Spatiotemporal outcome measures related to gait speed, speed variability, step length, width and time, foot swing velocity and medial-lateral and vertical pelvis displacement were examined. Kinematic outcome measures including ankle flexion, knee flexion and adduction and hip flexion were examined. To assess the agreement between Kinect and 3DMA systems, Bland-Altman plots, relative agreement (Pearson's correlation) and overall agreement (concordance correlation coefficients) were determined. Reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients, Cronbach's alpha and standard error of measurement. The spatiotemporal measurements had consistently excellent (r≥0.75) concurrent validity, with the exception of modest validity for medial-lateral pelvis sway (r=0.45-0.46) and fast paced gait speed variability (r=0.73). In contrast kinematic validity was consistently poor to modest, with all associations between the systems weak (rKinect V2 body tracking may not accurately obtain lower body kinematic data, it shows great potential as a tool for measuring spatiotemporal aspects of gait.

  8. Atlasing location, asymmetry and inter-subject variability of white matter tracts in the human brain with MR diffusion tractography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiebaut de Schotten, Michel; Ffytche, Dominic H; Bizzi, Alberto; Dell'Acqua, Flavio; Allin, Matthew; Walshe, Muriel; Murray, Robin; Williams, Steven C; Murphy, Declan G M; Catani, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to create a white matter atlas of the human brain using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) tractography and to describe the constant and variable features of the major pathways. DTI was acquired from 40 healthy right-handed adults and reconstructed tracts mapped within a common reference space (MNI). Group effect maps of each tract defined constant anatomical features while overlap maps were generated to study inter-subject variability and to compare DTI derived anatomy with a histological atlas. Two patients were studied to assess the localizing validity of the atlas. The DTI-derived maps are overall consistent with a previously published histological atlas. A statistically significant leftward asymmetry was found for the volume and number of streamlines of the cortico-spinal tract and the direct connections between Broca's and Wernicke's territories (long segment). A statistically significant rightward asymmetry was found for the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus and the fronto-parietal connections (anterior segment) of the arcuate fasciculus. Furthermore, males showed a left lateralization of the fronto-temporal segment of the arcuate fasciculus (long segment), while females had a more bilateral distribution. In two patients with brain lesions, DTI was acquired and tractography used to show that the tracts affected by the lesions were correctly identified by the atlas. This study suggests that DTI-derived maps can be used together with a previous histological atlas to establish the relationship of focal lesions with nearby tracts and improve clinico-anatomical correlation.

  9. Coryneform bacteria in human semen: inter-assay variability in species composition detection and biofilm production ability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silver Türk

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Coryneform bacteria constitute an important segment of male urogenital microbiota. They have been generally considered as saprophytes, although some species have been associated with prostatitis as well. At the same time, biofilm infections have been suspected as a cause of prostatitis. Objective: To identify a set of coryneform bacteria isolated from semen of either healthy men or prostatitis patients applying different methods to reveal inter-assay variability and to determine their ability of adhesion and biofilm production. Design: Coryneform bacteria were identified by API Coryne 2.0 biochemical identification system and 16S rDNA sequencing using different primer sets. Quantitative assessment of biofilm production was performed using crystal violet binding assay method. Results: The most common species were Corynebacterium seminale, C. minutissimum, and Dermabacter hominis. Altogether 14 species and related genera were found. We observed the best inter-assay agreement when identifying C. seminale. Biofilm was observed in 7 out of 24 strains. The biofilm-producing strains belonged to Arthrobacter cumminsii, Dermabacter hominis, C. minutissimum, and Actinomyces neuii. No differences were found between the strains originating from prostatitis patients and healthy men. Dermabacter hominis strains were more potent biofilm producers than C. seminale strains (p=0.048. Conclusions: We can conclude that a wide variety of coryneform bacteria can be found from the male genital tract, although their exact identification is problematic due to insufficient representation in databases. Nearly one third of the strains are able to form biofilm that may give them an advantage for surviving several host- and treatment-related conditions.

  10. Inter-annual and seasonal variations in transport to a measuring site in western Siberia, and their impact on the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} mixing ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eneroth, Kristina

    2002-05-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variations in atmospheric transport to a CO{sub 2} measuring site in western Siberia were studied using three-dimensional trajectories. We identified large differences in transport between summer and winter, but also some differences between the years. Cluster analysis was applied to the trajectory data to determine to what degree different atmospheric flow patterns influence the variability of the atmospheric CO{sub 2} mixing ratio. The observed CO{sub 2} mixing ratio was also compared to observed CO{sub 2} surface fluxes to study the impact of local sources and sinks. It was found that during July the correlation between atmospheric transport from distant source regions and CO{sub 2} mixing ratios was poor. Furthermore the correlation was also weak between the CO{sub 2} mixing ratio and the local eddy flux measurements. We conclude that the short-term variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2} during summer probably is dominated by larger scale (tens up to one hundred kilometers) CO{sub 2} surface fluxes and local meteorology. The weaker biogenic CO{sub 2} fluxes during winter, resulted in CO{sub 2} mixing ratios more clearly influenced by long-range transport Of CO{sub 2}. However, the highest atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations were not observed in connection with westerly winds representing transport of polluted air from Europe, but during periods with stagnant flow conditions. It was conjected that these high CO{sub 2} mixing ratios were due to respired CO{sub 2} trapped and accumulated in the lower parts of the planetary boundary layer. The mean duration for the identified flow patterns was in the order of two days, with a maximum duration of a week. This means that to have a chance to detect variations in CO{sub 2} mixing ratio due to air mass changes the sampling frequency (e.g. flask samples and flight measurements) must be at least every other day. Our results show that the atmospheric transport varies with season, year and altitude

  11. Annual Modulation in the Variability Properties of the IDV-Source 0917+624 ?

    CERN Document Server

    Fuhrmann, L; Cimo, G; Beckert, T; Kraus, A L; Witzel, A; Zensus, J A; Qian, S J; Rickett, B J

    2001-01-01

    There is new evidence which identifies seasonal changes of the variability time scale in intraday variable sources with refractive interstellar scintillation effects. Such a RISS-model takes the annual change of the Earth velocity relative to the scattering medium into account. In September 1998 we found a remarkable prolongation of the variability time scale in the IDV-source 0917+624 with only small variations in flux density during a period of 5 days. This was explained as a seasonal effect, in which the velocity vector of the Earth and the interstellar medium nearly canceled. In order to further investigate the applicability of the model for 0917+624, we performed an Effelsberg 6cm-flux monitoring program over the course of one year. Since September 2000, the source appears to be remarkably inactive and yet (May 2001), no return to its normal, faster and stronger variability pattern is observed. Here, our observational results and a possible explanation for the current quiescence are presented.

  12. Degree-day accumulation influences annual variability in growth of age-0 walleye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uphoff, Christopher S.; Schoenebeck, Casey W.; Hoback, W. Wyatt; Koupal, Keith D.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2013-01-01

    The growth of age-0 fishes influences survival, especially in temperate regions where size-dependent over-winter mortality can be substantial. Additional benefits of earlier maturation and greater fecundity may exist for faster growing individuals. This study correlated prey densities, growing-degree days, water-surface elevation, turbidity, and chlorophyll a with age-0 walleye Sander vitreus growth in a south-central Nebraska irrigation reservoir. Growth of age-0 walleye was variable between 2003 and 2011, with mean lengths ranging from 128 to 231 mm by fall (September 30th–October 15th). A set of a priori candidate models were used to assess the relative support of explanatory variables using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). A temperature model using the growing degree-days metric was the best supported model, describing 65% of the variability in annual mean lengths of age-0 walleye. The second and third best supported models included the variables chlorophyll a (r2 = 0.49) and larval freshwater drum density (r2 = 0.45), respectively. There have been mixed results concerning the importance of temperature effects on growth of age-0 walleye. This study supports the hypothesis that temperature is the most important predictor of age-0 walleye growth near the southwestern limits of its natural range.

  13. Inter-annual variation in the response of leaf-out onset to soil moisture increase in a teak plantation in northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshifuji, Natsuko; Igarashi, Yasunori; Tanaka, Nobuaki; Tanaka, Katsunori; Sato, Takanori; Tantasirin, Chatchai; Suzuki, Masakazu

    2014-11-01

    To understand the impact of inter-annual climate change on vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges, it has become necessary to explore changes in leaf-out onset in response to climatic fluctuations. We examined the response of leaf-out and transpiration onset dates to soil moisture in a teak plantation in northern Thailand based on a 12-year leaf area index and sap flow measurements. The date of leaf-out and transpiration onset varied between years by up to 40 days, and depended on the initial date when the relative extractable water in a soil layer of 0-0.6 m (Θ) was greater than 0.2 being consistent with our previous results. Our new finding is that the delay in leaf-out and transpiration onset relative to the initial date when Θ > 0.2 increases linearly as the initial date on which Θ > 0.2 becomes earlier. The delay spans about 20 days in years when Θ > 0.2 occurs in March (the late dry season)-much earlier than usual because of heavy pre-monsoon rainfalls-while there is little delay in years when Θ > 0.2 occurs in May. This delay indicates the influence of additional factors on leaf-out onset, which controls the delay in the response of leaf-out to soil moisture increase. The results increased our knowledge about the pattern and extent of the changes in leaf phenology that occur in response to the inter-annual climate variation in tropical regions, where, in particular, such research is needed.

  14. Three Ingredients for Improved Global Aftershock Forecasts: Tectonic Region, Time-Dependent Catalog Incompleteness, and Inter-Sequence Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, M. T.; Hardebeck, J.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.

    2015-12-01

    Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long-term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Due to this heightened hazard, there is a demand from emergency managers and the public for rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, USGS aftershock forecasts following large, global earthquakes have been released on an ad-hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases, aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, we are currently developing an automated aftershock product that will generate more accurate forecasts based on the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) method. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity exceed a factor of 10. The Reasenberg and Jones method combines modified-Omori aftershock decay, Utsu productivity scaling, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We additionally account for a time-dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. We generalize the Helmstetter et al. (2005) equation for short-term aftershock incompleteness and solve for incompleteness levels in the global NEIC catalog following large mainshocks. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we quantify the inter-sequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence-specific information becomes available.

  15. Inter- and intra-observer variability associated with the use of the Mirels' scoring system for metastatic bone lesions.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mac Niocaill, Ruairi F

    2011-01-01

    Metastatic bone disease is increasing in association with ever-improving medical management of osteophylic malignant conditions. The precise timing of surgical intervention for secondary lesions in long bones can be difficult to determine. This paper aims to evaluate a classic scoring system. All radiographs were examined twice by three orthopaedic oncologists and scored according to the Mirels\\' scoring system. The Kappa statistic was used for the purpose of statistical analysis. The results show agreement between observers (κ = 0.35-0.61) for overall scores at the two time intervals. Inter-observer agreement was also seen with subset analysis of size (κ = 0.27-0.60), site (κ = 0.77-1.0) and nature of the lesion (κ = 0.55-0.81). Similarly, low levels of intra-observer variability were noted for each of the three surgeons (κ= 0.34, 0.39, and 0.78, respectively). These results indicate a reliable, repeatable assessment of bony metastases. We continue to advocate its use in the management of patients with long bone metastases.

  16. Inter- and intra-subject variability of kinetics of airway exhalation and deposition of particulate matter in indoor polluted environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldoni, Matteo; Acampa, Olga; Longo, Sonia; Poli, Diana; Tagliaferri, Sara; Corradi, Massimo; Renzulli, Francesco Saverio; Mutti, Antonio

    2012-04-01

    PM(2.5) generated by indoor combustion activities can contribute significantly to personal PM exposure. The aims of this study were: (1) to validate a device specifically designed to study the kinetics of particle exhalation and the percentage of airway particle deposition (%DEP) in polluted indoor environments (welding fumes, environmental tobacco smoke - ETS) and (2) to assess the intra- and inter-subject variability of the signal. The device was tested on 14 subjects exposed to welding fumes and 10 subjects exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), performing repeated measures at different environmental PM concentrations. The intra-subject variability of the signal for particles with diameter 0.3-1.0 μm showed a geometric mean of %CV always below 6%, despite the values of %DEP. In the welding fume study, the increase in airborne 0.5-1.0 μm PM concentrations between the consulting room and production department was explainable in terms of increased density due to the metallic composition of particles. The %DEP of 0.3-1.0 μm ETS particles decreased with airborne PM concentration due to the technical limits of a laser particle counter and the perturbation induced by the physical characteristics of ETS PM. However, also at those extreme conditions, the signal remained repeatable and the individual susceptibility to PM remained substantially unaltered. In conclusion, the versatility and portability of our device, together with the repeatability of the signal, confirmed that the kinetics of exhaled particles and %DEP could be routinely measured in polluted environments and used to define individual susceptibility to airborne particles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  17. Inter- and intra-variability of pigmented skin lesions: could the ABCD rule be influenced by host characteristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroni, Marco; Dell'Eva, Giordana; Corona, Rosamaria; Sera, Francesco; Bono, Riccardo; Sbano, Paolo; Andreassi, Lucio; Rubegni, Pietro

    2004-08-01

    Many differences in color, shape and dimension exist between different moles even in the same individual. Major differences might be accounted for anatomical location, genetic factors and by environmental factors, mainly sunlight exposure. Therefore, it would be of great value, when evaluating skin lesions, to take into account the degree of intra- and inter-variability of several diagnostic parameters. In order to assess the morphologic and chromatic differences between lesions belonging to different patients and between lesions belonging to the same individual, we examined objective digital parameters obtained with dermatoscopic analysis, using the DBDermo MIPS system (BIO MIPS Engineering, S.R.L, siena, Italy). The automatic classifier inside the software is based on a 'match by similarity' algorithm, based on the measurement of the Euclidean distances of all variables considered from the reference image. Two-hundred and four clinically benign pigmented lesion, belonging to 18 patients were examined, stored and automatically processed. For each lesion objective parameters related to geometry, color and texture were automatically evaluated. We found skin color (healthy skin) is objectively different from subject to subject and the lesion color is more similar among different lesions of the same patient than among lesions belonging to different individuals both in their darkest and slightly dark component. We also observed that lesion dimensions are individual correlates, i.e. the probability for a lesion to be large is higher when the other, in the same patient, is large. Many parameters of pigmented skin lesions evaluated by digital dermoscopy analysis are similar in the same patient and different from those belonging to different individuals. This indicates that, when considering a lesion, we should take into account the peculiar patient's characteristics.

  18. Inter-observer variability in histopathological assessment of liver biopsies taken in a pediatric open label therapeutic program for chronic HBV infection treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Woynarowski, Marek; Cielecka-Kuszyk, Joanna; Kałużyński, Andrzej; Omulecka, Aleksandra; Sobaniec-Łotowska, Maria; Stolarczyk, Julian; SZCZEPAŃSKI, Wojciech

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To our knowledge, the inter-observer variability of the liver biopsy findings in HBV-infected children have not been studied as yet. Hence, we aimed to compare different pathologist’s assessment of grading and staging in liver biopsies obtained from children prior to interferon treatment.

  19. Assessing variability in chemical acute toxicity of unionid mussels: Influence of intra- and inter-laboratory testing, life stage, and species - SETAC Abstract

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed a toxicity database for unionid mussels to examine the extent of intra- and inter-laboratory variability in acute toxicity tests with mussel larvae (glochidia) and juveniles; the extent of differential sensitivity of the two life stages; and the variation in sensitiv...

  20. Prognostic value of heart rate variability in comparison with annual health examinations in very elderly subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurita, Akira; Takase, Bonpei; Kodani, Eitaro; Iwahara, Shinichiro; Kusama, Yoshiki; Atarashi, Hirotsugu

    2013-01-01

    The prognostic value of heart rate variability (HRV) in patients with cardiac conditions has been investigated for many years. However, the HRV is superior to annual health examinations for predicting the longevity of very elderly residents of long-term care facilities is unknown. Annual health examinations and subsequently ambulatory Holter ECG recording were performed in 2008 for 71 very elderly subjects, who were then followed up for 3 to 48 months. The patients were divided into 2 groups on the basis of whether they were alive (86 ± 14 years, n=37) or deceased (90 ± 16 years, n=34) at end of follow-up. To assess cardiac autonomic function, HRV was obtained with the MemCalc/Chiram software program after Holter ECG. Age, sex, body-mass index, plasma levels of C-reactive protein and albumin, and the low-frequency/high-frequency ratio did not differ between the 2 groups. However, the standard deviation of all NN intervals (SDNN) and the coefficient of variation of RR intervals (CVRR) were higher in living subjects than in deceased subjects (SDNN: 73.2 ± 13.5 milliseconds vs. 53.2 ± 9.8 milliseconds, CVRR: 9.3% ± 1.7% vs. 7.6% ± 1.3%, p<0.05). The relative risks with an SDNN <65 milliseconds was 1.85 (p<0.05) and that with a CVRR <8% was 1.84 (p<0.05). Kaplan Meier analysis showed that SDNN and CVRR were useful markers for the longevity of very elderly subjects. The present data suggest that annual health examination data does not predict longevity, but that HRV does. The modulation of parasympathetic tone in daily activities plays an important role in the longevity of very elderly residents of long-term care facilities.

  1. Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.

    2015-12-01

    The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a

  2. Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Davis, M E; Zagorodnov, V S; Howat, I M; Mikhalenko, V N; Lin, P-N

    2013-05-24

    Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.

  3. The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Dailiang; Wu, Chaoyang; Zhang, Bing; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Sun, Rui; Lei, Liping; Huang, Wenjing; Liu, Liangyun; Liu, Xinjie; Li, Jun; Luo, Shezhou; Fang, Bin

    2016-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C) emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP) represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) zone accounts for more than 40% of China's landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC) on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001-2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05). The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA) to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone.

  4. The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dailiang Peng

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP zone accounts for more than 40% of China's landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001-2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05. The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone.

  5. Inter-individual variability in fear of humans and relative brain size of the species are related to contemporary urban invasion in birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Carrete

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Urbanization is the most prevailing cause of habitat transformation worldwide, differing from others by its intense levels of human activity. Despite its obvious impact on wildlife, it is still unclear why and how some species are able to adapt to urban settings. One possibility is that fear of humans and vehicles could preclude most species from invading cities. Species entering urban environments might be those that are more tolerant of human disturbance (i.e., tame species. Alternatively or in addition, urban invaders could be a fraction of variable species, with "tame" individuals invading urban habitats and other individuals remaining in rural areas. METHODOLOGY: Using the contemporary urban invasion by birds in a recently established South American city, we tested both hypotheses by relating interspecific differences in invasiveness to their flight initiation distances (i.e., the distances at which birds flee from approaching cars, FID, as well as to their relative brain size (RBS, a correlate of measures of behavioral flexibility. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Urban invasiveness was not significantly related to species' average rural FIDs but positively related to their RBS and inter-individual variability in FID. Moreover, FIDs were consistently lower in urban than in rural conspecifics, and the FIDs of urban individuals were within the lower-range distribution of their rural conspecifics. RBS indirectly influenced urban invasion through its positive effect on inter-individual variability in FID. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Urban invaders do not appear to be individuals from apparently tame species, but rather tame individuals from species with a variable response regarding fear of people. Given the positive relationship between RBS and inter-individual variability in FID, our results suggest that behavioural flexibility should be regarded as a specific trait encompassing variability among individuals. Further research is needed to

  6. Effects of climate variables on intra-annual stem radial increment in Pinus cembra (L.) along the alpine treeline ecotone

    OpenAIRE

    Gruber, Andreas; Zimmermann, Jolanda; Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter

    2009-01-01

    Within the alpine treeline ecotone tree growth is increasingly restricted by extreme climate conditions. Although intra-annual stem growth recorded by dendrometers can be linked to climate, stem diameter increments in slow-growing subalpine trees are masked by changes in tree water status.We tested the hypothesis that intra-annual radial stem growth in Pinus cembra is influenced by different climate variables along the treeline ecotone in the Austrian Alps. Dendrometer traces were compared wi...

  7. Sub-annual variability in historical water source use by Mediterranean riparian trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, Christopher; Singer, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The seasonal availability of water within a tree's rooting zone may be an important determinant for individual tree growth and overall forest health, particularly in riparian corridors of Mediterranean climate zones that are vulnerable to water stress. Here, we present a new method that combines dendro-isotopes and isotope-modelling for determining how water source use varies over 10 consecutive growing seasons (2000-2010) for co-occurring species P. nigra and F. excelsior, along the Rhône River, south-eastern France. We conducted highly resolved cellulose δ18O analysis of micro-slices within tree rings and back-calculated the δ18O signature of source water available at the time of growth using a biochemical fractionation model. We related these patterns to inferred seasonal hydrological partitioning through comparison with δ18O of waters from the vadose and phreatic zones, precipitation, and streamflow. The shallowly rooted Fraxinus displayed greater sub-annual source water variability, as well as greater isotopic enrichment, reflecting use of precipitation-derived vadose moisture. Its earlywood component was formed mainly from winter rainfall (depleted) whilst the latewood relied on growing season precipitation (enriched). In Populus, the sub-annual source water use was relatively depleted, suggesting use of hyporheic water and regional groundwater. From 2007, both species converged in their pattern of water source uptake which was attributed to a decline in phreatic water access for Populus. These results demonstrate that the seasonal variability in source water use can be identified retrospectively, a method which may prove important for anticipating the future consequences of climatic driven changes to the hydrological cycle.

  8. Annual Cycle and Interannual Variability in the Tropical Pacific as Simulated by Three Versions of FGOALS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Yongqiang; HE Jie; ZHENG Weipeng; LUAN Yihua

    2013-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical oceans simulated by three versions of the Flexible Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model (FGOALS-g1.0,FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2),which have participated in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5),are presented in this paper.The seasonal cycle of SST in the tropical Pacific is realistically reproduced by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2,while it is poorly simulated in FGOALS-g1.0.Three feedback mechanisms responsible for the SST annual cycle in the eastern Pacific are evaluated.The ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback,which is successfully reproduced by both FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2,plays a key role in determining the SST annual cycle,while the overestimated stratus cloud-SST feedback amplifies the annual cycle in FGOALS-s2.Because of the serious warm bias existing in FGOALS-g1.0,the ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback is greatly underestimated in FGOALS-g1.0,in which the SST annual cycle is mainly driven by surface solar radiation.FGOALS-g1.0 simulates much stronger ENSO events than observed,whereas FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 successfully simulate the observed ENSO amplitude and period and positive asymmetry,but with less strength.Further ENSO feedback analyses suggest that surface solar radiation feedback is principally responsible for the overestimated ENSO amplitude in FGOALS-g1.0.Both FGOALS-g1.0 and FGOALS-s2 can simulate two different types of El Ni(n)o events with maximum SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific (EP) or in the central Pacific (CP)-but FGOALS-g2 is only able to simulate EP E1 Ni(n)o,because the negative cloud shortwave forcing feedback by FGOALS-g2 is much stronger than observed in the central Pacific.

  9. Inter-observer variability in histopathological assessment of liver biopsies taken in a pediatric open label therapeutic program for chronic HBV infection treatment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marek Woynarowski; Joanna Cielecka-Kuszyk; Andrzej Ka(l)u(z)y(n)ski; Aleksandra Omulecka; Maria Sobaniec-(L)otowska; Julian Stolarczyk; Wojciech Szczepa(n)ski

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To our knowledge, the inter-observer variability of the liver biopsy findings in HBV-infected children have not been studied as yet. Hence, we aimed to compare different pathologist's assessment of grading and staging in liver biopsies obtained from children prior to interferon treatment.METHODS: We collected 920 biopsies from 11 medical centers. The biopsies were independently reviewed by 6 pathologists from academic centers who assessed Batts-Ludwig score for grading and staging. Satisfactory agreement among observers was defined as at least 60% of observers having the same opinion. Satisfactory dispersion between maximal and minimal score for the same biopsy specimen was defined as a maximum 1 point.RESULTS: Satisfactory inter-observer agreement for grading was obtained in 51.6% and for staging in 75.7% of biopsies. Satisfactory dispersion for grading scores was observed in 44.5% and for staging in 72.7% of cases.CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that: (1)pathologists differ in their assessment of grading and staging of liver biopsies; (2) inter-observer variability for staging is lower than that for grading; and (3) regardless of the inter-observer variability of assessments, the majority of children with chronic HBV infection have mild to moderate inflammation and mild to moderate fibrosis.

  10. Assessment of inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Liepert, Beate G

    2011-01-01

    Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses however, have implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with IPCC-AR4 models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget and an imbalanced flux of -0.14 Sv exists whereas the multi-model median imbalance is only -0.02 Sv. For most models, the detected imbalances furthermore change over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 IPCC-AR4 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a "leaking" of moisture from the atmo...

  11. Correlations between Inter-Annual Variations in Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Greenland Surface Melt, and Boreal Snow Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Thorstena; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Armstrong, Richard L.

    2004-01-01

    Intensification of global warming in recent decades has caused a rise of interest in year-to-year and decadal-scale climate variability in the Arctic. This is because the Arctic is believed to be one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions to climatic changes. For over two decades satellite passive microwave observations have been utilized to continuously monitor the Arctic environment. Derived parameters include sea ice cover, snow cover and snow water equivalent over land, and Greenland melt extent and length of melt season. Most studies have primarily concentrated on trends and variations of individual variables. In this study we investigated how variations in sea ice cover, Greenland surface melt, and boreal snow cover are correlated. This was done on hemispheric as well as on regional scales. Latest results will be presented including data from the summer of 2004.

  12. Correlations between Inter-Annual Variations in Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Greenland Surface Melt, and Boreal Snow Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Thorstena; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Armstrong, Richard L.

    2004-01-01

    Intensification of global warming in recent decades has caused a rise of interest in year-to-year and decadal-scale climate variability in the Arctic. This is because the Arctic is believed to be one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions to climatic changes. For over two decades satellite passive microwave observations have been utilized to continuously monitor the Arctic environment. Derived parameters include sea ice cover, snow cover and snow water equivalent over land, and Greenland melt extent and length of melt season. Most studies have primarily concentrated on trends and variations of individual variables. In this study we investigated how variations in sea ice cover, Greenland surface melt, and boreal snow cover are correlated. This was done on hemispheric as well as on regional scales. Latest results will be presented including data from the summer of 2004.

  13. Intra- and inter-annual trends in phosphorus loads and comparison with nitrogen loads to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, J.A.; Scudlark, J.R.; Savidge, K.B.; Andres, A.S.; Stenger, R.J.; Ullman, W.J.

    2012-01-01

    Monthly phosphorus loads from uplands, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater to Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) were determined from October 1998 to April 2002 to evaluate the relative importance of these three sources of P to the Bay. Loads from a representative subwatershed were determined and used in an areal extrapolation to estimate the upland load from the entire watershed. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved organic P (DOP) are the predominant forms of P in baseflow and P loads from the watershed are highest during the summer months. Particulate phosphorus (PP) becomes more significant in stormflow and during periods with more frequent or larger storms. Atmospheric deposition of P is only a minor source of P to Rehoboth Bay. During the period of 1998-2002, wastewater was the dominant external source of P to Rehoboth Bay, often exceeding all other P sources combined. Since 2002, however, due to technical improvements to the sole wastewater plant discharging directly to the Bay, the wastewater contribution of P has been significantly reduced and upland waters are now the principal source of P on an annualized basis. Based on comparison of N and P loads, primary productivity and biomass carrying capacity in Rehoboth Bay should be limited by P availability. However, due to the contrasting spatial and temporal patterns of N and P loading and perhaps internal cycling within the ecosystem, spatial and temporal variations in N and P-limitation within Rehoboth Bay are likely. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Airborne observation of aerosol optical depth during ARCTAS: vertical profiles, inter-comparison, fine-mode fraction and horizontal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shinozuka

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We describe aerosol optical depth (AOD measured during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS experiment, conducted in North America in April and June–July 2008, focusing on vertical profiles, inter-comparison with correlative observations, fine-mode fraction and horizontal variability. The AOD spectra spanning 354–2139 nm measured with the 14-channel Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14 are generally less wavelength-dependent below 2 km (499-nm Angstrom exponent 1.4 ± 0.3 than in 2–4 km (1.6–1.8 for Alaska in April 2008. Together with concurrent aerosol mass spectrometry and black carbon incandescence measurements, this corroborates the hypothesis that Arctic haze in these layers originates mainly from anthropogenic emission and biomass burning, respectively. The spectra are within 3%+0.02 of the vertical integral of local visible-light scattering and absorption for two thirds of the 55 vertical profiles examined. The horizontal structure of smoke plumes in central Canada in June and July 2008 explains most outliers. The differences in mid-visible Angstrom exponent are <0.10 for 63% of the profiles with 499-nm AOD>0.1. The retrieved fine-mode fraction of AOD is mostly between 0.7 and 1.0, and its root mean square difference from column-integral submicron fraction (measured with nephelometers, absorption photometers and an impactor is 0.12. These AOD measurements from the NASA P-3 aircraft, after compensation for below-aircraft light attenuation by vertical extrapolation, mostly fall within 0.02 of AERONET ground-based measurements for five overpass events. Evidently, the fresh local emission in Canada in June and July makes the horizontal distribution of AOD highly heterogeneous (standard deviation ~19% of the mean over 20 km and random (autocorrelation r=0.37 across 20 km, in contrast to long-range transport to Alaska in April (std~2%, r=0.95. The

  15. In situ study of the impact of inter- and intra-reader variability on region of interest (ROI) analysis in preclinical molecular imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habte, Frezghi; Budhiraja, Shradha; Keren, Shay; Doyle, Timothy C; Levin, Craig S; Paik, David S

    2013-01-01

    We estimated reader-dependent variability of region of interest (ROI) analysis and evaluated its impact on preclinical quantitative molecular imaging. To estimate reader variability, we used five independent image datasets acquired each using microPET and multispectral fluorescence imaging (MSFI). We also selected ten experienced researchers who utilize molecular imaging in the same environment that they typically perform their own studies. Nine investigators blinded to the data type completed the ROI analysis by drawing ROIs manually that delineate the tumor regions to the best of their knowledge and repeated the measurements three times, non-consecutively. Extracted mean intensities of voxels within each ROI are used to compute the coefficient of variation (CV) and characterize the inter- and intra-reader variability. The impact of variability was assessed through random samples iterated from normal distributions for control and experimental groups on hypothesis testing and computing statistical power by varying subject size, measured difference between groups and CV. The results indicate that inter-reader variability was 22.5% for microPET and 72.2% for MSFI. Additionally, mean intra-reader variability was 10.1% for microPET and 26.4% for MSFI. Repeated statistical testing showed that a total variability of CV readers, which may adversely affect statistical power and erroneously lead to negative study outcomes.

  16. [Inter-observer variability of decision concerning the route of delivery in case of one previous cesarean section and abnormal pelvic measures].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdon, M; Ceccaldi, P F; Girard, G; Koskas, M; Goffinet, F; Le Ray, C

    2016-11-01

    To study inter-observer variability of decision concerning the route of delivery using pelvimetry in case of one previous cesarean section and abnormal pelvic measures. Observational study conducted in 2014 in 4 university maternity units among 36 obstetricians. Two groups of obstetricians - as they practiced in a center where pelvimetry was routinely performed (n=12) or not (n=24) - had to choose a route of delivery for 10 clinical cases of women with a single uterine scar and a tight pelvis. The "routine pelvimetry" group had pelvimetry results. The group "no pelvimetry" became aware of pelvimetry results as a second step and had to indicate whether this information changed or not their management. The measurement of the inter-observer variability was estimated by estimating the proportion of agreement according to Grant method. The proportion of agreements of an attempted vaginal delivery between obstetricians in the group "routine pelvimetry" was 64.7% (95% CI [61-68.5]) and 97.3% (95% CI [96.4 to 98.3]) in the group "no pelvimetry", prior knowledge of pelvimetry results. An attempted vaginal delivery was decided in 77.5% versus 98.7% (Pcesarean section, in case of tight pelvis discovered after pelvimetry, inter-observer variability of decision concerning the route of delivery is increased. Centers that choose to continue using the routine pelvimetry should develop procedures to limit this variability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Inter-individual variability in the response of human peripheral blood lymphocytes to ionizing radiation: comparison of the dicentric and micronucleus assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajic, Jelena; Rakic, Boban; Rovcanin, Branislav; Jovicic, Dubravka; Novakovic, Ivana; Milovanovic, Aleksandar; Pajic, Vesna

    2015-08-01

    Ionizing radiation can induce a wide range of DNA damage that leads to chromosomal aberrations. Some of those aberrations (dicentrics and micronuclei) are applied in biodosimetry. Biological dosimetry assumes similar radiosensitivity of each donor, but it does not exclude inter-individual variations in radiation susceptibility. Therefore, for biological reasons, it is always challenging to investigate inter-individual variability in response to radiation. For mechanistic reasons, it is also interesting to investigate the correlation between dicentric and micronuclei formation in response to radiation. In this experiment, irradiated blood specimens from 14 healthy male and female donors have been used to evaluate inter-individual variability in response to the genotoxic effects of X-ray radiation, as well as the dose-response relationship and test sensitivity using two endpoints (dicentrics and micronuclei). The results showed similar patterns of cytogenetic biomarker distribution between donors, but differences in the response of some donors at some doses. Data also showed that responses of male donors were better detected using the dicentric test, while for females, micronucleus frequencies were higher in response to the same dose of radiation. No influence of smoking status or age on specific responses was observed. Group variability in response to radiation was evaluated using coefficient of variation for each group of individuals irradiated with the same doses; as the dose increases, group variability becomes substantially lower. Despite sporadic inter-individual variability, trend of radiation-induced changes was similar. Produced calibration curves for both types of damage revealed dicentrics as genetic damage more typical for radiation than micronuclei.

  18. Hydrology of the North Klondike River: carbon export, water balance and inter-annual climate influences within a sub-alpine permafrost catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapp, Anthony; Clark, Ian; Macumber, Andrew; Patterson, Tim

    2017-10-01

    Arctic and sub-arctic watersheds are undergoing significant changes due to recent climate warming and degrading permafrost, engendering enhanced monitoring of arctic rivers. Smaller catchments provide understanding of discharge, solute flux and groundwater recharge at the process level that contributes to an understanding of how larger arctic watersheds are responding to climate change. The North Klondike River, located in west central Yukon, is a sub-alpine permafrost catchment, which maintains an active hydrological monitoring station with a record of >40 years. In addition to being able to monitor intra-annual variability, this data set allows for more complex analysis of streamflow records. Streamflow data, geochemistry and stable isotope data for 2014 show a groundwater-dominated system, predominantly recharged during periods of snowmelt. Radiocarbon is shown to be a valuable tracer of soil zone recharge processes and carbon sources. Winter groundwater baseflow contributes 20 % of total annual discharge, and accounts for up to 50 % of total river discharge during the spring and summer months. Although total stream discharge remains unchanged, mean annual groundwater baseflow has increased over the 40-year monitoring period. Wavelet analysis reveals a catchment that responds to El Niño and longer solar cycles, as well as climatic shifts such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Dedicated to Professor Peter Fritz on the occasion of his 80th birthday.

  19. Inter-annual dynamics of the Barents Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) stock indices in relation to environmental factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvoretsky, Alexander G.; Dvoretsky, Vladimir G.

    2016-12-01

    Knowledge of relationships between environmental variables and biological processes can greatly improve fisheries assessment and management in commercially important species. We analyzed the effects of environmental factors (climatic indices and water temperature) on the stock characteristics (total population number, number of pre-recruits and number of legal males) of the red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus), an introduced species in the Barents Sea. Stock trends in red king crab appear to be related to decadal climate shifts. Abundances were negatively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in August and positively related to water temperature in late winter-early summer. Total and commercial stock abundance were negatively correlated with the lag-1 Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in August and the lag-2 winter NAO index. The total number of P. camtschaticus was most strongly associated with water temperature in spring and summer and NAO/AO indices in April and May. Lagged NAO indices in February and August (9 or 10 yr) had a positive relationship to the commercial stock of P. camtschaticus. These findings suggest that temperature conditions of current and previous year affect natural mortality of larvae and juvenile red king crabs. Warmer temperature conditions lead to increased biomass of red king crab food items. Negative correlations between climatic indices and the red king crab stocks may be associated with predator pressure on juvenile red king crabs or higher mortality because of predator or parasite pressure and diseases. The associations between stock indices and environmental variables could help better predict recruitment patterns of P. camtschaticus.

  20. Mapping inter-annual dynamics of open surface water bodies in Oklahoma from Landsat images in 1984 to 2015 at 30-m spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.; Menarguez, M.; Dong, J.; Qin, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Open surface water bodies are important water resource for public supply, irrigation, livestock, and wildlife in Oklahoma. The inter-annual variation of Oklahoma water bodies directly affect the water availability for public supply, irrigation and cattle industry. In this study, tens of thousands of Landsat TM/ETM+ images from 1984 to 2015 were used to track the dynamics of open surface water bodies. Both water-related spectral indices and vegetation indices were used to map water bodies for individual images. The resultant maps show that Oklahoma year-long open surface water bodies varied significantly over the last 32 years, with an average annual water body area equals to 2300 km2, accounting for 1.27 % of the Oklahoma state area (181,037 km2). 4.3 million year-long water body pixels were detected in the 32-year accumulated water frequency map, corresponding to 3100 km2. Only 45% ( 1400 km2) of the those pixels had water throughout the 32 years, while the rest 55% pixels had a dry-up period. The smaller water bodies have a higher risk to dry up and a lower probability to have water throughout the years. Drought years could significantly decrease the number of small water bodies and shrink the area of large water bodies, while pluvial years could create large number of small seasonal water bodies. The significant influencing factors of current year water bodies include the precipitation and temperature of current year and the water body condition of the previous year. This water body dynamics study could be used to support water resource management, crop and livestock production, and biodiversity conservation in Oklahoma.

  1. Quantifying inter-group variability in lactation curve shape and magnitude with the MilkBot® lactation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James L. Ehrlich

    2013-03-01

    be used to describe and compare individual lactations or groups of lactations. There is considerable intra-herd and inter-herd variability in scale, ramp, decay, RMSE, peak milk, and cumulative production, suggesting that management and environment have significant influence on both shape and magnitude of normal lactation curves.

  2. Long-range transport of atmospheric lead reaching Ny-Ålesund: Inter-annual and seasonal variations of potential source areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazzano, Andrea; Cappelletti, David; Udisti, Roberto; Grotti, Marco

    2016-08-01

    Atmospheric particulate matter (PM10) was collected at Ny-Ålesund (Svalbard Islands, Norwegian Arctic) during spring and summer from 2010 to 2014 and analysed for lead content, enrichment factor and isotopic composition (208Pb/206Pb and 207Pb/206Pb). It was found that atmospheric lead was mainly of anthropogenic origin and neither its mean concentration, nor its isotopic composition was subjected to significant inter-annual differences (p-value > 0.1). Seasonal differences in both lead content and isotopic compositions occurred (p-value mining and smelting activities in the Rudny Altay region (Central Eurasia), as well as industrial emission in north-eastern North America, were the main sources of atmospheric lead in spring and summer, respectively. During 2013, no significant differences between the two seasons were found (p-value > 0.3), showing a prolonged influence of Eurasian sources also in summer. The results obtained by the Pb isotopic composition were corroborated by a back-trajectory cluster analysis of air-masses reaching the sampling site.

  3. Drivers of inter-annual variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem, South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archibald, SA

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available /day), and was able to represent the seasonal patterns of photosynthesis and respiration at the site. The amount of green leaf area (indexed using satellite-derived estimates of fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation f...

  4. Measuring and modeling carbon stock change estimates for US forests and uncertainties from apparent inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2015-01-01

    Our approach is based on a collection of models that convert or augment the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program survey data to estimate all forest carbon component stocks, including live and standing dead tree aboveground and belowground biomass, forest floor (litter), down deadwood, and soil organic carbon, for each inventory plot. The data, which include...

  5. Detecting inter-annual variability in the phenological characteristics of southern Africa’s vegetation using satellite imagery

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology refers to the timing of seasonal biological events (for example, bud burst, leaf unfolding, vegetation growth and leaf senescence) and biotic and abiotic forces that control these. Daily, coarse-resolution satellite imagery...

  6. Intra-seasonal oscillations associated with Indian Ocean warm pool and summer monsoon rainfall and their inter-annual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Nisha, P.G.; Sathe, P.V.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    is found to be propagating northward and their link to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been well documented (Yasunari, 1979; Krishnamurti and Subramanium, 1982; Gautier and Di Julio, 1990) Western equatorial Pacific and eastern equatorial Indian... been reported by Yasunary (1979, 1980) using satellite mosaic pictures of cloudiness over South Asia. Krishnamurty and Subramanium (1982) documented meridional propagation of a train of troughs and ridges from the equator to about 30 N over the Indian...

  7. Sensitivity of annual and seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration to principal climatic variables

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    G T Patle; D K Singh

    2015-06-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) represents the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and depends on climatic parameters such as radiation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Relative role of climatic parameter of ET0 varies from one climate to another and within the climate, and depends on the location and time. Sensitivity analysis was conducted and sensitivity coefficients were determined to evaluate the impact of principal climatic parameters on ET0 in Karnal district of India. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1981 to 2011 were estimated from FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation using the daily climate data collected from Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, Karnal. Results showed that seasonal and annual ET0 were most sensitive to maximum temperature followed by sunshine hours. However, wind speed, relative humidity, and minimum temperature had varying effect on mean ET0. After maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to wind speed followed by relative humidity and minimum temperature in summer. In monsoon, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to minimum temperature followed by relative humidity and wind speed. However, in winter, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to relative humidity followed by wind speed and minimum temperature. The study suggests that the climate variability would affect reference ET0; however, its impact on ET0 would be different for different parameters.

  8. Predicting the distribution of a threatened albatross: The importance of competition, fisheries and annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catry, P.; Lemos, R. T.; Brickle, P.; Phillips, R. A.; Matias, R.; Granadeiro, J. P.

    2013-03-01

    The ability to predict the distribution of threatened marine predators is essential to inform spatially explicit seascape management. We tracked 99 individual black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melanophris from two Falkland Islands’ colonies in 2 years. We modeled the observed distribution of foraging activity taking environmental variables, fisheries activity (derived from vessel monitoring system data), accessibility to feeding grounds and intra-specific competition into account. The resulting models had sufficient generality to make reasonable predictions for different years and colonies, which allows temporal and spatial variation to be incorporated into the decision making process by managers for regions and seasons where available information is incomplete. We also illustrated that long-ranging birds from colonies separated by as little as 75 km can show important spatial segregation at sea, invalidating direct or uncorrected extrapolation from one colony to neighboring ones. Fisheries had limited influence on albatross distribution, despite the well known scavenging behavior of these birds. The models developed here have potentially wide application to the identification of sensitive geographical areas where special management practices (such as fisheries closures) could be implemented, and would predict how these areas are likely to move with annual and seasonal changes in environmental conditions.

  9. Rainfall Variability and the Recent Climate Extremes in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Weather patterns affecting the country are driven by the northward and southward ... Climatic and statistical analyses were employed to investigate two extreme ... of Nigeria have suffered from inter-annual to seasonal climatic variabilities and ...

  10. Inter-annual ciliate distribution variation within the late stratification oxycline in a monomictic lake, Lake Alchichica (Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ximena Sánchez Medina

    2016-03-01

    , vorticellids (2006-2008 or scuticociliates (2010 dominated. Typically, the scuticociliate maximum was located in the oxycline and/or above the bottom. Some microaerophilic species were isolated; thus, their identification could be carried out. However, the apparent polymorphic ciliate life cycles were not described completely, and the species composition was only estimated: two dominant species (SC 1 – Cristigera-like and SC 2 – Cyclidim-like covered nearly the total scuticociliate biomass. Strictly anaerobic scuticociliates were not isolated but observed in the deepest layers of the lake (bacteria symbiotic Isocyclidium globosum and Cristigera sp.. Significant statistical relation within the ciliate distribution and environmental variables was not confirmed due to unique species composition in the respective years. However, general trends in the distribution of ciliates on a species level were observed. Scuticociliates, including two important tentatively identified species, did not present unambiguous ecological position, and the study of their live cycle should be the next step in investigations.

  11. Numerical simulation of inter-annual variations in the properties of the upper mixed layer in the Black Sea over the last 34 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Georgy I.; Wobus, Fred; Zatsepin, Andrei G.; Akivis, Tatiana M.; Zanacchi, Marcus; Stanichny, Sergey

    2014-05-01

    The Black Sea is a nearly land-locked basin where a combination of salt and heat budgets results in a unique thermohaline water mass structure. An important feature of the Black Sea is that oxygen is dissolved and rich sea life made possible only in the upper water levels. This is due to a strong pycnocline which cannot be mixed even by strong winds or winter convection (Shapiro, 2008). The upper mixed layer (UML) with a nearly uniform temperature profile and a very sharp seasonal thermocline at its lower boundary develops during the summer season (Sur & Ilyin, 1997). The deepening of the UML has an important effect on the supply of nutrients into the euphotic upper layer from the underlying nutrient-rich water mass. The temperature of the UML at any given location is dependent on the surface heat flux, horizontal advection of heat, the depth and the rate of deepening of the UML. In this study we use a 3D ocean circulation model, NEMO-SHELF (O'Dea et al, 2012) to simulate the parameters of the UML in the Black Sea over the last 34 years. The model has horizontal resolution of 1/12×1/16 degrees and 33 layers in the vertical. The vertical discretization uses a hybrid enveloped s-z grid developed in Shapiro et al. (2012). The model is spun up from climatology (Suvorov et al., 2004); it is forced by the Drakkar Forcing Set v5.2 (Brodeau et al., 2010, Meinvielle et al., 2013) and river discharges from 8 major rivers are included. For each year the model is run from 1st January and the data for the period April to October are used for analysis. The sea surface temperature produced by the model is compared with satellite data ( Modis-Aqua, 2013) to show a good agreement. The model simulations are validated against in-situ observations (BSERP-3, 2004; Piotukh et al., 2011). The analysis is performed for the deep basin where the depth of the sea is greater than 1000m. It clearly shows the inter-annual variations of both the SST and the depth of UML. The depth of UML is

  12. Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D Arendt

    Full Text Available A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

  13. Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendt, Michael D; Schwenter, Jeffrey A; Witherington, Blair E; Meylan, Anne B; Saba, Vincent S

    2013-01-01

    A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

  14. Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES) for quantitative magnetic resonance imaging of multiple sclerosis: intra- and inter-observer agreement variability: a comparison with manual contouring method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, Roberto C; Sardanelli, Francesco; Renzetti, Paolo; Rosso, Elisabetta; Losacco, Caterina; Ferrari, Alessandra; Levrero, Fabrizio; Pilot, Alberto; Inglese, Matilde; Mancardi, Giovanni L

    2002-04-01

    Lesion area measurement in multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the key points in evaluating the natural history and in monitoring the efficacy of treatments. This study was performed to check the intra- and inter-observer agreement variability of a locally developed Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES), comparing them to those obtained using manual contouring (MC). From routine 1.5-T MRI study of clinically definite multiple sclerosis patients, 36 lesions seen on proton-density-weighted images (PDWI) and 36 enhancing lesion on Gd-DTPA-BMA-enhanced T1-weighted images (Gd-T1WI) were randomly chosen and were evaluated by three observers. The mean range of lesion size was 9.9-536.0 mm(2) on PDWI and 3.6-57.2 mm(2) on Gd-T1WI. The median intra- and inter-observer agreement were, respectively, 97.1 and 90.0% using GRES on PDWI, 81.0 and 70.0% using MC on PDWI, 88.8 and 80.0% using GRES on Gd-T1WI, and 85.8 and 70.0% using MC on Gd-T1WI. The intra- and inter-observer agreements were significantly greater for GRES compared with MC ( PGRES an MC for Gd-T1WI. The intra-observer variability for GRES was significantly lower on both PDWI ( P=0.0001) and Gd-T1WI ( P=0.0067), whereas for MC the same result was found only for PDWI ( P=0.0147). These data indicate that GRES reduces both the intra- and the inter-observer variability in assessing the area of MS lesions on PDWI and may prove useful in multicentre studies.

  15. Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

    2015-08-01

    The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the

  16. Heel-strike in walking: assessment of potential sources of intra- and inter-subject variability in the activation patterns of muscles stabilizing the knee joint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Cora; Federolf, Peter; Nüesch, Corina; Cattin, Philippe C; Friederich, Niklaus F; Tscharner, Vinzenz von

    2013-04-26

    The electromyographic (EMG) signal is known to show large intra-subject and inter-subject variability. Adaptation to, and preparation for, the heel-strike event have been hypothesized to be major sources of EMG variability in walking. The aim of this study was to assess these hypotheses using a principal component analysis (PCA). Two waveform shapes with distinct characteristic features were proposed based on conceptual considerations of how the neuro-muscular system might prepare for, or adapt to, the heel-strike event. PCA waveforms obtained from knee muscle EMG signals were then compared with the predicted characteristic features of the two proposed waveforms. Surface EMG signals were recorded for ten healthy adult female subjects during level walking at a self-selected speed, for the following muscles; rectus femoris, vastus medialis, vastus lateralis, semitendinosus, and biceps femoris. For a period of 200 ms before and after heel-strike, EMG power was extracted using a wavelet transformation (19-395 Hz). The resultant EMG waveforms (18 per subject) were submitted to intra-subject and inter-subject PCA. In all analyzed muscles, the shapes of the first and second principal component (PC-) vectors agreed well with the predicted waveforms. These two PC-vectors accounted for 50-60% of the overall variability, in both inter-subject and intra-subject analyses. It was also found that the shape of the first PC-vector was consistent between subjects, while higher-order PC-vectors differed between subjects. These results support the hypothesis that adaptation to, and preparation for, a variable heel-strike event are both major sources of EMG variability in walking.

  17. Inter-laboratory consistency and variability in the buccal micronucleus cytome assay depends on biomarker scored and laboratory experience: results from the HUMNxl international inter-laboratory scoring exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolognesi, Claudia; Knasmueller, Siegfried; Nersesyan, Armen; Roggieri, Paola; Ceppi, Marcello; Bruzzone, Marco; Blaszczyk, Ewa; Mielzynska-Svach, Danuta; Milic, Mirta; Bonassi, Stefano; Benedetti, Danieli; Da Silva, Juliana; Toledo, Raphael; Salvadori, Daisy Maria Fávero; Groot de Restrepo, Helena; Filipic, Metka; Hercog, Klara; Aktas, Ayça; Burgaz, Sema; Kundi, Michael; Grummt, Tamara; Thomas, Philip; Hor, Maryam; Escudero-Fung, Maria; Holland, Nina; Fenech, Michael

    2017-03-01

    The buccal micronucleus cytome (BMNcyt) assay in uncultured exfoliated epithelial cells from oral mucosa is widely applied in biomonitoring human exposures to genotoxic agents and is also proposed as a suitable test for prescreening and follow-up of precancerous oral lesions. The main limitation of the assay is the large variability observed in the baseline values of micronuclei (MNi) and other nuclear anomalies mainly related to different scoring criteria. The aim of this international collaborative study, involving laboratories with different level of experience, was to evaluate the inter- and intra-laboratory variations in the BMNcyt parameters, using recently implemented guidelines, in scoring cells from the same pooled samples obtained from healthy subjects (control group) and from cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy (treated group). The results indicate that all laboratories correctly discriminated samples from the two groups by a significant increase of micronucleus (MN) and nuclear bud (NBUD) frequencies and differentiated binucleated (BN) cells, associated with the exposure to ionizing radiation. The experience of the laboratories was shown to play an important role in the identification of the different cell types and nuclear anomalies. MN frequency in differentiated mononucleated (MONO) and BN cells showed the greatest consistency among the laboratories and low variability was also detected in the frequencies of MONO and BN cells. A larger variability was observed in classifying the different cell types, indicating the subjectivity in the interpretation of some of the scoring criteria while reproducibility of the results between scoring sessions was very good. An inter-laboratory calibration exercise is strongly recommended before starting studies with BMNcyt assay involving multiple research centers. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the UK Environmental Mutagen Society. All rights reserved. For permissions

  18. Twenty-year inter-annual trends and seasonal variations in precipitation and stream water chemistry at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navrátil, Tomas; Norton, Stephen A; Fernandez, Ivan J; Nelson, Sarah J

    2010-12-01

    depletion of base cations in shallow flow paths in WB. Progressive depletion of Ca and Mg at greater soil depth occurred, causing stream concentrations to decline to pre-manipulation values. Mean monthly Si concentrations did not change in EB or WB, suggesting that the manipulation had no effect on mineral weathering rates. DOC concentrations in both streams did not exhibit inter- or intra-annual trends.

  19. Inter-individual methylation variability in differentially methylated regions between maternal whole blood and first trimester CVS

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannides, Marios; Papageorgiou, Elisavet A.; Keravnou, Anna; Tsaliki, Evdokia; Spyrou, Christiana; Hadjidaniel, Michael; Sismani, Carolina; Koumbaris, George; Patsalis, Philippos C.

    2014-01-01

    Background DNA methylation is the most studied form of epigenetic regulation, a process by which chromatin composition and transcription factor binding is altered to influence tissue specific gene expression and differentiation. Such tissue specific methylation patterns are investigated as biomarkers for cancer and cell-free fetal DNA using various methodologies. Results We have utilized methylation DNA immunoprecipitation (MeDIP) and real-time quantitative PCR to investigate the inter-indivi...

  20. Interactions of water and nitrogen addition on soil microbial community composition and functional diversity depending on the inter-annual precipitation in a Chinese steppe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Liang-jie; QI Yu-chun; DONG Yun-she; HE Ya-ting; PENG Qin; LIU Xin-chao; JIA Jun-qiang; GUO Shu-fang; CAO Cong-cong

    2015-01-01

    Water and nitrogen are primary limiting factors in semiarid grassland ecosystems. Our knowledge is stil poor regarding the interactive effects of water and N addition on soil microbial communities, although this information is crucial to reveal the mechanisms of the terrestrial ecosystem response to global changes. We addressed this problem by conducting a ifeld experiment with a 15%surplus of the average rainfal under three levels of N addition (50, 100, and 200 kg N ha–1 yr–1) in two consecutive years in Inner Mongolia, China. Microbial community composition and functional diversity were analyzed based on phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) and BIOLOG techniques, respectively. The results showed that water addition did not affect the soil microbial community composition, but much more yearly precipitation general y decreased the PLFA concentration, which implied a fast response of soil microbes to changes of water condition. Soil fungi was depressed only by N addition at the high level (200 kg N ha–1 yr–1) and without hydrologic leaching, while Gram-negative bacteria was suppressed probably by plant competition at high level N addition but with hydrologic leaching. The study found unilateral positive/negative interactions between water and N addition in affecting soil microbial community, however, climate condi-tion (precipitation) could be a signiifcant factor in disturbing the interactions. This study highlighted that:(1) The sustained effect of pulsed water addition was minimal on the soil microbial community composition but signiifcant on the microbial community functional diversity and (2) the complex interaction between water and N addition on soil microbial community related to the inter-annual variation of the climate and plant response.

  1. Inter-annual trend of the primary contribution of ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in Venice (Italy): Efficiency of emissions mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contini, Daniele; Gambaro, Andrea; Donateo, Antonio; Cescon, Paolo; Cesari, Daniela; Merico, Eva; Belosi, Franco; Citron, Marta

    2015-02-01

    Ships and harbour emissions are currently increasing, due to the increase of tourism and trade, with potential impact on global air pollution and climate. At local scale, in-port ship emissions influence air quality in coastal areas impacting on health of coastal communities. International legislations to reduce ship emissions, both at Worldwide and European levels, are mainly based on the use of low-sulphur content fuel. In this work an analysis of the inter-annual trends of primary contribution, ε, of tourist shipping to the atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations in the urban area of Venice has been performed. Measurements have been taken in the summer periods of 2007, 2009 and 2012. Results show a decrease of ε from 7% (±1%) in 2007 to 5% (±1%) in 2009 and to 3.5% (±1%) in 2012. The meteorological and micrometeorological conditions of the campaigns were similar. Tourist ship traffic during measurement campaigns increased, in terms of gross tonnage, of about 25.4% from 2007 to 2009 and of 17.6% from 2009 to 2012. The decrease of ε was associated to the effect of a voluntary agreement (Venice Blue Flag) for the use of low-sulphur content fuel enforced in the area between 2007 and 2009 and to the implementation of the 2005/33/CE Directive in 2010. Results show that the use of low-sulphur fuel could effectively reduce the impact of shipping to atmospheric primary particles at local scale. Further, voluntary agreement could also be effective in reducing the impact of shipping on local air quality in coastal areas.

  2. Comparison of Inter-Observer Variability and Diagnostic Performance of the Fifth Edition of BI-RADS for Breast Ultrasound of Static versus Video Images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youk, Ji Hyun; Jung, Inkyung; Yoon, Jung Hyun; Kim, Sung Hun; Kim, You Me; Lee, Eun Hye; Jeong, Sun Hye; Kim, Min Jung

    2016-09-01

    Our aim was to compare the inter-observer variability and diagnostic performance of the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) lexicon for breast ultrasound of static and video images. Ninety-nine breast masses visible on ultrasound examination from 95 women 19-81 y of age at five institutions were enrolled in this study. They were scheduled to undergo biopsy or surgery or had been stable for at least 2 y of ultrasound follow-up after benign biopsy results or typically benign findings. For each mass, representative long- and short-axis static ultrasound images were acquired; real-time long- and short-axis B-mode video images through the mass area were separately saved as cine clips. Each image was reviewed independently by five radiologists who were asked to classify ultrasound features according to the fifth edition of the BI-RADS lexicon. Inter-observer variability was assessed using kappa (κ) statistics. Diagnostic performance on static and video images was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. No significant difference was found in κ values between static and video images for all descriptors, although κ values of video images were higher than those of static images for shape, orientation, margin and calcifications. After receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the video images (0.83, range: 0.77-0.87) had higher areas under the curve than the static images (0.80, range: 0.75-0.83; p = 0.08). Inter-observer variability and diagnostic performance of video images was similar to that of static images on breast ultrasonography according to the new edition of BI-RADS.

  3. Hydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnemann, G. R.; Hartogh, P.; Berger, U.; Grygalashvyly, M.

    2015-06-01

    The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH*) near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014), the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere). In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced chemical oscillator

  4. Inter- and intraobserver variability of MR arthrography in the detection and classification of superior labral anterior posterior (SLAP) lesions: evaluation in 78 cases with arthroscopic correlation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holzapfel, Konstantin; Waldt, Simone; Bruegel, Melanie; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Woertler, Klaus [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Department of Radiology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich (Germany); Paul, Jochen; Imhoff, Andreas B. [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Department of Sports Orthopedics, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich (Germany); Heinrich, Petra [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Institute of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Munich (Germany)

    2010-03-15

    The purpose of this study was to determine inter- and intraobserver variability of MR arthrography of the shoulder in the detection and classification of superior labral anterior posterior (SLAP) lesions. MR arthrograms of 78 patients who underwent MR arthrography before arthroscopy were retrospectively analysed by three blinded readers for the presence and type of SLAP lesions. MR arthrograms were reviewed twice by each reader with a time interval of 4 months between the two readings. Inter- and intraobserver agreement for detection and classification of SLAP lesions were calculated using {kappa} coefficients. Arthroscopy confirmed 48 SLAP lesions: type I (n = 4), type II (n = 37), type III (n = 3), type IV (n = 4). Sensitivity and specificity for detecting SLAP lesions with MR arthrography for each reader were 88.6%/93.3%, 90.9%/80.0% and 86.4%/76.7%. MR arthrographic and arthroscopic grading were concurrent for 72.7%, 68.2% and 70.5% of SLAP lesions for readers 1-3, respectively. Interobserver agreement was excellent ({kappa} = 0.82) for detection and substantial ({kappa} = 0.63) for classification of SLAP lesions. For each reader intraobserver agreement was excellent for detection ({kappa} = 0.93, {kappa} = 0.97, {kappa} = 0.97) and classification ({kappa} = 0.94, {kappa} = 0.84, {kappa} = 0.93) of SLAP lesions. MR arthrography allows reliable and accurate detection of SLAP lesions. In addition, SLAP lesions can be diagnosed and classified with substantial to excellent inter- and intraobserver agreement. (orig.)

  5. Modelling spatial, altitudinal and temporal variability of annual precipitation in mountainous regions: The case of the Middle Zagros, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeidabadi, Rashid; Najafi, Mohammed S.; Roshan, GholamReza; Fitchett, Jennifer M.; Abkharabat, Shoaieb

    2016-11-01

    Relationships between precipitation and elevation are difficult to model for mountainous regions, due to complexities in topography and moisture sources. Attempts to model these relationships need to be tested against long-term location specific meteorological data, and hence require a case-study approach. This study uses artificial neural networks to model these relationships for the Middle of Zagros region, in semi-arid western Iran. Precipitation data for the region were collected for 1995-2007. Annual precipitation was designated as the target variable for the network, which additionally included variables significantly related to precipitation for the region, including longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, distance from the ridge, and relative distance from moisture. Long-term changes in annual precipitation for the region are investigated for 1961-2010. The artificial neural network (ANN) model explains 76% of the spatial variability of precipitation in the Middle Zagros. Precipitation predominantly increases with elevation on the windward slope, to a maximum height of 2500 m.asl, and thereafter either remains constant or decreases slowly to the ridge. Precipitation in the region has decreased significantly over the study period, with fluctuations driven by AO, NAO, ENSO and variability in the strength of pressure centers. Spectral analysis reveals significant oscillations of 2-4 and 5 yr periods, which correspond temporally with cycles in macro-scale circulation, ENSO and the Mediterranean Low pressure.

  6. Characterization of regional left ventricular function in nonhuman primates using magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers: a test-retest repeatability and inter-subject variability study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita Sampath

    Full Text Available Pre-clinical animal models are important to study the fundamental biological and functional mechanisms involved in the longitudinal evolution of heart failure (HF. Particularly, large animal models, like nonhuman primates (NHPs, that possess greater physiological, biochemical, and phylogenetic similarity to humans are gaining interest. To assess the translatability of these models into human diseases, imaging biomarkers play a significant role in non-invasive phenotyping, prediction of downstream remodeling, and evaluation of novel experimental therapeutics. This paper sheds insight into NHP cardiac function through the quantification of magnetic resonance (MR imaging biomarkers that comprehensively characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of left ventricular (LV systolic pumping and LV diastolic relaxation. MR tagging and phase contrast (PC imaging were used to quantify NHP cardiac strain and flow. Temporal inter-relationships between rotational mechanics, myocardial strain and LV chamber flow are presented, and functional biomarkers are evaluated through test-retest repeatability and inter subject variability analyses. The temporal trends observed in strain and flow was similar to published data in humans. Our results indicate a dominant dimension based pumping during early systole, followed by a torsion dominant pumping action during late systole. Early diastole is characterized by close to 65% of untwist, the remainder of which likely contributes to efficient filling during atrial kick. Our data reveal that moderate to good intra-subject repeatability was observed for peak strain, strain-rates, E/circumferential strain-rate (CSR ratio, E/longitudinal strain-rate (LSR ratio, and deceleration time. The inter-subject variability was high for strain dyssynchrony, diastolic strain-rates, peak torsion and peak untwist rate. We have successfully characterized cardiac function in NHPs using MR imaging. Peak strain, average systolic strain

  7. Ki67 staining index and neuroendocrine differentiation aggravate adverse prognostic parameters in prostate cancer and are characterized by negligible inter-observer variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunia, Sven; Albrecht, Knut; Koch, Stefan; Herrmann, Thomas; Ecke, Thorsten; Loy, Volker; Linke, Jörg; Siegsmund, Michael; May, Matthias

    2008-06-01

    This study aims to clarify whether neuroendocrine differentiation (NED) and/or proliferation activity assessed by means of Ki67 staining index (Ki67SI) might aggravate other established adverse prognostic parameters commonly used for predicting outcome in surgically treated prostate cancer, and to assess inter-observer variability in assigning NED and Ki67 SI. A total of 528 patients surgically treated due to prostate cancer were evaluated in this study. Relevant data were retrospectively obtained by chart review. Immunostaining with antibodies directed against Chromogranin A and Ki67 was performed on archived surgical material, and was evaluated by two independent histopathologists blinded to the specimens. Surveying a median postsurgical follow-up of 46.4 months, postsurgical serum PSA-levels were regularly documented for identifying biochemical progress. Multivariate analysis was performed by means of the Cox regression hazards regression method to evaluate possible aggravations of established adverse prognostic parameters (nodal status, tumour stage, pretherapeutic PSA-level, and Gleason score) by NED and/or Ki67SI. Ki67 SI and NED were shown to significantly aggravate these established adverse prognostic parameters, and were found to be characterized by negligible inter-observer variability. Ki67 SI and NED should be advocated to be rendered by the histopathologist because both parameters can be immunohistochemically determined without much additional expense in time and cost involved. This concept is rewarded by an additional gain of prognostic accuracy in evaluating individual risk profile after surgery.

  8. Pre-stimulus Alpha Oscillations and Inter-subject Variability of Motor Evoked Potentials in Single- and Paired-Pulse TMS Paradigms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iscan, Zafer; Nazarova, Maria; Fedele, Tommaso; Blagovechtchenski, Evgeny; Nikulin, Vadim V.

    2016-01-01

    Inter- and intra-subject variability of the motor evoked potentials (MEPs) to TMS is a well-known phenomenon. Although a possible link between this variability and ongoing brain oscillations was demonstrated, the results of the studies are not consistent with each other. Exploring this topic further is important since the modulation of MEPs provides unique possibility to relate oscillatory cortical phenomena to the state of the motor cortex probed with TMS. Given that alpha oscillations were shown to reflect cortical excitability, we hypothesized that their power and variability might explain the modulation of subject-specific MEPs to single- and paired-pulse TMS (spTMS, ppTMS, respectively). Neuronal activity was recorded with multichannel electroencephalogram. We used spTMS and two ppTMS conditions: intracortical facilitation (ICF) and short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI). Spearman correlations were calculated within and across subjects between MEPs and the pre-stimulus power of alpha oscillations in low (8–10 Hz) and high (10–12 Hz) frequency bands. Coefficient of quartile variation was used to measure variability. Across-subject analysis revealed no difference in the pre-stimulus alpha power among the TMS conditions. However, the variability of high-alpha power in spTMS condition was larger than in the SICI condition. In ICF condition pre-stimulus high-alpha power variability correlated positively with MEP amplitude variability. No correlation has been observed between the pre-stimulus alpha power and MEP responses in any of the conditions. Our results show that the variability of the alpha oscillations can be more predictive of TMS effects than the commonly used power of oscillations and we provide further support for the dissociation of high and low-alpha bands in predicting responses produced by the stimulation of the motor cortex. PMID:27774060

  9. Assessing Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations of Lake Surface Areas in Mongolia during 2000-2011 Using Minimum Composite MODIS NDVI.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinkyu Kang

    Full Text Available A minimum composite method was applied to produce a 15-day interval normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI dataset from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS daily 250 m reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands. This dataset was applied to determine lake surface areas in Mongolia. A total of 73 lakes greater than 6.25 km2in area were selected, and 28 of these lakes were used to evaluate detection errors. The minimum composite NDVI showed a better detection performance on lake water pixels than did the official MODIS 16-day 250 m NDVI based on a maximum composite method. The overall lake area detection performance based on the 15-day minimum composite NDVI showed -2.5% error relative to the Landsat-derived lake area for the 28 evaluated lakes. The errors increased with increases in the perimeter-to-area ratio but decreased with lake size over 10 km(2. The lake area decreased by -9.3% at an annual rate of -53.7 km(2 yr(-1 during 2000 to 2011 for the 73 lakes. However, considerable spatial variations, such as slight-to-moderate lake area reductions in semi-arid regions and rapid lake area reductions in arid regions, were also detected. This study demonstrated applicability of MODIS 250 m reflectance data for biweekly monitoring of lake area change and diagnosed considerable lake area reduction and its spatial variability in arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia. Future studies are required for explaining reasons of lake area changes and their spatial variability.

  10. Annual Variability in Seed Production by Woody Plants and the Masting Concept: Reassessment of Principles and Relationship to Pollination and Seed Dispersal

    OpenAIRE

    Herrera, Carlos M.; Jordano, Pedro; GUITIÁN, J.; Traveset, Anna

    1998-01-01

    By analyzing 296 published and unpublished data sets describing annual variation in seed output by 144 species of woody plants, this article addresses the following questions. Do plant species naturally fall into distinct groups corresponding to masting and nonmasting habits? Do plant populations generally exhibit significant bimodality in annual seed output? Are there significant relationships between annual variability in seed production and pollination and seed dispersal modes, as predicte...

  11. Inter-participant variability in daily physical activity and sedentary time among male youth sport footballers: independent associations with indicators of adiposity and cardiorespiratory fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Sally A M; Duda, Joan L; Barrett, Timothy

    2016-01-01

    Participation in youth sport is assumed to promote and contribute towards more physically active lifestyles among children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to examine inter-participant variability in objectively measured habitual physical activity (PA) behaviours and sedentary time among youth sport participants and their implications for health. One-hundred-and-eighteen male youth sport footballers (Mean ± s = 11.72 ± 1.60) wore a GT3X accelerometer for 7 days. Average daily PA [min · day(-1), in light (LPA), moderate (MPA), vigorous (VPA) and combined moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA)] and sedentary time were calculated. Participants' body mass index adjusted for age and sex (BMI-standard deviation score), per cent body fat (BF%), waist circumference and cardiorespiratory fitness were assessed. Results revealed that variability in daily PA behaviours and sedentary time (min · day(-1)) was associated with BMI-standard deviation score [VPA (-), MVPA (-)], BF% [sedentary time (+), VPA (-), MVPA (-)], waist circumference [sedentary time (+), LPA (-)] and cardiorespiratory fitness [sedentary time (-), MPA (+), VPA (+), MVPA (+)]. Whilst sedentary time and MVPA were not related to health outcomes independent of one another, associations with markers of adiposity and cardiorespiratory fitness were stronger for sedentary time. Sedentary time was also significantly positively related to waist circumference independent of VPA. Results demonstrate inter-participant variability in habitual PA and sedentary time among youth sport participants which holds implications for their health. Thus, promoting PA and, in particular, reducing sedentary time may contribute towards the prevention of adverse health consequences associated with a physically inactive lifestyle for children and adolescents active in the youth sport context.

  12. Multicenter quality assessment of 16S ribosomal DNA-sequencing for microbiome analyses reveals high inter-center variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiergeist, Andreas; Reischl, Udo; Gessner, Andrè

    2016-08-01

    The composition of human as well as animal microbiota has increasingly gained in interest since metabolites and structural components of endogenous microorganisms fundamentally influence all aspects of host physiology. Since many of the bacteria are still unculturable, molecular techniques such as high-throughput sequencing have dramatically increased our knowledge of microbial communities. The majority of microbiome studies published thus far are based on bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequencing, so that they can, at least in principle, be compared to determine the role of the microbiome composition for host metabolism and physiology, developmental processes, as well as different diseases. However, differences in DNA preparation and purification, 16S rDNA PCR amplification, sequencing procedures and platforms, as well as bioinformatic analysis and quality control measures may strongly affect the microbiome composition results obtained in different laboratories. To systematically evaluate the comparability of results and identify the most influential methodological factors affecting these differences, identical human stool sample replicates spiked with quantified marker bacteria, and their subsequent DNA sequences were analyzed by nine different centers in an external quality assessment (EQA). While high intra-center reproducibility was observed in repetitive tests, significant inter-center differences of reported microbiota composition were obtained. All steps of the complex analysis workflow significantly influenced microbiome profiles, but the magnitude of variation caused by PCR primers for 16S rDNA amplification was clearly the largest. In order to advance microbiome research to a more standardized and routine medical diagnostic procedure, it is essential to establish uniform standard operating procedures throughout laboratories and to initiate regular proficiency testing.

  13. Spatial distribution and intra-annual variability of water masses on the Eastern Gulf of Cadiz seabed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellanco, M. J.; Sánchez-Leal, R. F.

    2016-10-01

    This paper presents the spatial distribution and intra-annual variability of seabed hydrography in the Eastern Gulf of Cadiz based on more than 10 years of near-bottom CTD observations. Well-defined water masses and a variety of mixing products are persistently sorted along three bathymetric areas occupying particular depth intervals: (i) inner shelf waters (Gibraltar driven both by an elevated MOW and a less stratified ENACW could explain the winter salinification of most of the grounds deeper than 250 m.

  14. Summer Monsoon and Annual Variability of Sea Surface Slope and Their Effects on Alongshore Current near Qingdao

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒲书箴; 程军; 张义钧; 石强; 骆敬新; 范文静

    2004-01-01

    Based on the monthly mean sea level data obtained from 3 years′ (1999-2001) tide-gauge measurements, the annual variability of the sea level near Qingdao and Jiaozhou Bay is studied and discussed in this paper. Results show that the sea surface height at all the tide gauges becomes higher in summer than that in winter,with an obvious seasonal variability.Furthermore the sea surface height measured at a short distance outside the bay is lower than that in thebay, showing a sea surface slope downward from north to south. The reasons for the formation of the slope are explained as well, The dynamic action ofthe summer monsoon and the sea surface slope, and their effects on the monthly mean current are studied by means of dynamics principles. The importance of the summer monsoon and the pressure gradient generated by the sea surface slope, with their effects on the alongshore current, is pointed out and emphasized in this paper.

  15. Inter-Population Variability of Terpenoid Composition in Leaves of Pistacia lentiscus L. from Algeria: A Chemoecological Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe Mevy

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Three different altitudes were selected to study the variability of terpenoid composition from leaves of female plants of Pistacia lentiscus L. throughout the elevation gradient. GC-MS analyses showed that terpenoid contents change with altitude. Forty nine compounds were identified with a high interpopulation variability for low- and midaltitude sites that also exhibited the same major components when data were expressed on dry weight basis. However, Two-Way-ANOVA followed by Tukey’s post hoc test showed that monoterpene hydrocarbons increased with elevation, giving values of 21.7, 37.5 and 221.5 µg g−1 dw for low- mid- and highlands, respectively. On the other hand, applying P.C.A. with data expressed in percentage of the chromatogram of the volatile extract led to the identification of three chemotypes associated with altitudinal levels. In highlands (Group I, the major compounds were b-caryophyllene (12%, δ-cadinene (9.3% and a-pinene (6.3% while in midlands (Group II, b-caryophyllene (11.5%, δ-cadinene (8.6% and caryophyllene oxide (6.8% were the main components. In lowlands (Group III δ-cadinene (10.9%, cubebol (10.5% and β-bisabolene (7.7% were chiefly present. Hence, the involvement of genetic factors, temperature and drought in the chemical polymorphism of P. lentiscus associated with elevation is discussed in this report.

  16. Inter-population variability of terpenoid composition in leaves of Pistacia lentiscus L. from Algeria: a chemoecological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Said, Samir Ait; Fernandez, Catherine; Greff, Stéphane; Torre, Franck; Derridj, Arezki; Gauquelin, Thierry; Mevy, Jean-Philippe

    2011-03-22

    Three different altitudes were selected to study the variability of terpenoid composition from leaves of female plants of Pistacia lentiscus L. throughout the elevation gradient. GC-MS analyses showed that terpenoid contents change with altitude. Forty nine compounds were identified with a high interpopulation variability for low- and midaltitude sites that also exhibited the same major components when data were expressed on dry weight basis. However, Two-Way-ANOVA followed by Tukey's post hoc test showed that monoterpene hydrocarbons increased with elevation, giving values of 21.7, 37.5 and 221.5 µg g⁻¹ dw for low- mid- and highlands, respectively. On the other hand, applying P.C.A. with data expressed in percentage of the chromatogram of the volatile extract led to the identification of three chemotypes associated with altitudinal levels. In highlands (Group I), the major compounds were β-caryophyllene (12%), δ-cadinene (9.3%) and a-pinene (6.3%) while in midlands (Group II), β-caryophyllene (11.5%), δ-cadinene (8.6%) and caryophyllene oxide (6.8%) were the main components. In lowlands (Group III) δ-cadinene (10.9%), cubebol (10.5%) and β-bisabolene (7.7%) were chiefly present. Hence, the involvement of genetic factors, temperature and drought in the chemical polymorphism of P. lentiscus associated with elevation is discussed in this report.

  17. Developing a tool for obtaining maternal skinfold thickness measurements and assessing inter-observer variability among pregnant women who are overweight and obese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannieappan, Lavern M; Deussen, Andrea R; Grivell, Rosalie M; Yelland, Lisa; Dodd, Jodie M

    2013-02-19

    It is estimated that between 34% and 50% of Australian women entering pregnancy are overweight and obese, which is associated with an increased risk in complications for both the woman and her infant. Current tools used in clinical and research practice for measuring body composition include body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and bioimpedance analysis. Not all of these measures are applicable for use during pregnancy due to a lack of differentiation between maternal and fetal contributions. While skinfold thickness measurement (SFTM) is increasingly being used in pregnancy, there is limited data and a lack of a standard tool for its use in overweight and obese pregnant women. We developed a standard tool for evaluating SFTM among women with a BMI≥25 kg/m2. Forty-nine women were measured as part of a prospective cohort study nested within a multicentre randomised controlled trial (The LIMIT Randomised Controlled Trial). Two blinded observers each performed 2 skinfold measurements on the biceps, triceps and subscapular of each woman. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and standard error of measurement (SEM) were used to analyse SFTM, body fat percentage (BF%) and inter-observer variability. The ICC for inter-observer variability in measurements were considered moderate for biceps SFTM (ICC=0.56) and triceps SFTM (ICC=0.51); good for subscapular SFTM (ICC=0.71) and BF% (ICC=0.74); and excellent for arm circumference (ICC=0.97). The standard error of measurements ranged from 0.53 cm for arm circumference to 3.58 mm for the subscapular SFTM. Our findings indicate that arm circumference and biceps, triceps and subscapular SFTM can be reliably obtained from overweight and obese pregnant women to calculate BF%, using multiple observers, and can be used in a research setting. Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000161426.

  18. Reliability of Potential Pain Biomarkers in the Saliva of Healthy Subjects: Inter-Individual Differences and Intersession Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobas, Eva M.; Reinoso, Roberto; Cuadrado-Asensio, Rubén; Fernández, Itziar; Maldonado, Miguel J.; Pastor, José C.

    2016-01-01

    Aim Salivary cortisol, α-amylase (sAA), secretory IgA (sIgA), testosterone, and soluble fraction of receptor II of TNFα (sTNFαRII) could serve as objective pain measures, but the normal variability of these potential biomarkers is unknown. Patients & Methods Saliva was collected with the passive secretion method from 34, pain-free subjects in two single samples at least 24 hours apart. Biomarker variation and intersession reliability were assessed with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Also, we calculated the within-subject standard deviation (Sw) and the reproducibility (2.77 × Sw) of intersession measures. Results Salivary cortisol, sAA, sIgA, testosterone, and sTNFαRII yielded the following ICCs: 0.53, 0.003, 0.88, 0.42 and 0.83, respectively. We found no statistically significant systematic differences between sessions in any biomarker except for testosterone, which showed a decrease on the second day (p<0.001). The reproducibility for salivary cortisol, sAA, sIgA, testosterone, and sTNFαRII were 0.46 ng/ml, 12.88 U/ml, 11.7 μg/ml, 14.54 pg/ml and 18.29 pg/ml, respectively. Cortisol, testosterone and TNFαRII measurement variability showed a positive correlation with the magnitude (p<0.002), but no relationship was found for sAA and sIgA. Conclusions Salivary sIgA and sTNFαRII show a remarkable good reproducibility and, therefore, could be useful as pain biomarkers. When using the passive secretion method, intersession variations in salivary sIgA of more than 11.7 μg/ml may reflect true biomarker change. In the case of sTNFαRII this will depend of the magnitude. The estimates herein provided should help investigators and clinicians differentiate actual biomarker modification from measurement variability. PMID:27907037

  19. Inter-sport variability of muscle volume distribution identified by segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis in four ball sports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamada Y

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Yosuke Yamada,1,2 Yoshihisa Masuo,3 Eitaro Nakamura,4 Shingo Oda5 1Laboratory of Sports and Health Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan; 2Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo, Japan; 3Waseda University Research Institute for Elderly Health, Saitama, Japan; 4Department of Sport Science, Kyoto Iken College of Medicine and Health, Kyoto, Japan; 5Faculty of Health and Well-being, Kansai University, Osaka, Japan Abstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify differences in muscle distribution in athletes of various ball sports using segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis (SBIA. Participants were 115 male collegiate athletes from four ball sports (baseball, soccer, tennis, and lacrosse. Percent body fat (%BF and lean body mass were measured, and SBIA was used to measure segmental muscle volume (MV in bilateral upper arms, forearms, thighs, and lower legs. We calculated the MV ratios of dominant to nondominant, proximal to distal, and upper to lower limbs. The measurements consisted of a total of 31 variables. Cluster and factor analyses were applied to identify redundant variables. The muscle distribution was significantly different among groups, but the %BF was not. The classification procedures of the discriminant analysis could correctly distinguish 84.3% of the athletes. These results suggest that collegiate ball game athletes have adapted their physique to their sport movements very well, and the SBIA, which is an affordable, noninvasive, easy-to-operate, and fast alternative method in the field, can distinguish ball game athletes according to their specific muscle distribution within a 5-minute measurement. The SBIA could be a useful, affordable, and fast tool for identifying talents for specific sports. Keywords: discriminant analysis, cluster and factor analysis, segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis, baseball, lacrosse

  20. MRI screening for silicone breast implant rupture: accuracy, inter- and intraobserver variability using explantation results as reference standard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maijers, M.C.; Ritt, M.J.P.F. [VU University Medical Centre, Department of Plastic, Reconstructive and Hand Surgery, De Boelelaan 1117, PO Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Niessen, F.B. [VU University Medical Centre, Department of Plastic, Reconstructive and Hand Surgery, De Boelelaan 1117, PO Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Jan van Goyen Clinic, Department of Plastic Surgery, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Veldhuizen, J.F.H. [MRI Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Manoliu, R.A. [MRI Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Centre, Department of Radiology, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2014-06-15

    The recall of Poly Implant Prothese (PIP) silicone breast implants in 2010 resulted in large numbers of asymptomatic women with implants who underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening. This study's aim was to assess the accuracy and interobserver variability of MRI screening in the detection of rupture and extracapsular silicone leakage. A prospective study included 107 women with 214 PIP implants who underwent explantation preceded by MRI. In 2013, two radiologists blinded for previous MRI findings or outcome at surgery, independently re-evaluated all MRI examinations. A structured protocol described the MRI findings. The ex vivo findings served as reference standard. In 208 of the 214 explanted prostheses, radiologists agreed independently about the condition of the implants. In five of the six cases they disagreed (2.6 %), but subsequently reached consensus. A sensitivity of 93 %, specificity of 93 %, positive predictive value of 77 % and negative predictive value of 98 % was found. The interobserver agreement was excellent (kappa value of 0.92). MRI has a high accuracy in diagnosing rupture in silicone breast implants. Considering the high kappa value of interobserver agreement, MRI appears to be a consistent diagnostic test. A simple, uniform classification, may improve communication between radiologist and plastic surgeon. (orig.)

  1. The role of storage capacity in coping with intra-annual runoff variability on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaupp, Franziska; Hall, Jim; Dadson, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Intra-annual variability poses a risk to water security in many basins as runoff is unevenly distributed over the year. Areas such as Northern Africa, Australia and the South-Western USA are characterized by a high coefficient of variability of monthly runoff. Analyzing the global risk of water scarcity, this study examines 680 basin-country units (BCUs) (403 river basins divided by country borders). By calculating the water balance for each BCU, the interplay of runoff on the one hand and domestic, industrial and environmental water needs on the other hand is shown. In contrast to other studies on average water scarcity, this work focuses on variability of water supply as metrics based on annual average water availability and demand can underestimate the risk of scarcity. The model is based on the assumption that each country-basin with sub-basins and tributaries can be treated as one single reservoir with storage capacity aggregated over that BCU. It includes surface runoff and the possibility to withdraw groundwater as water supply. The storage capacity of each BCU represents the ability to transfer water from wet months to dry months in order to buffer and cope with intra-annual water supply variability and to meet total water demand. Average monthly surface runoff per country-basin for the period 1979 to 2012 is derived from outcomes of the hydrological model Mac-PDM. Mac-PDM is forced with monthly ERAI-Interim reanalysis climate data on a one degree resolution. Groundwater withdrawal capacity, total water demand and storage capacity are taken from the IMPACT model provided by the International Food Research Institute (IFPRI). Storage refers to any kind of surface reservoir whose water can be managed and used for human activities in the industrial, domestic and agricultural sectors. Groundwater withdrawal capacity refers to the technological capacity to pump water rather than the amount of groundwater available. Total water demand includes consumptive water

  2. Integrating mixed-effect models into an architectural plant model to simulate inter- and intra-progeny variability: a case study on oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Raphaël P A; Pallas, Benoît; Le Moguédec, Gilles; Rey, Hervé; Griffon, Sébastien; Caliman, Jean-Pierre; Costes, Evelyne; Dauzat, Jean

    2016-08-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of plants is time-consuming and involves considerable levels of data acquisition. This is possibly one reason why the integration of genetic variability into 3D architectural models has so far been largely overlooked. In this study, an allometry-based approach was developed to account for architectural variability in 3D architectural models of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) as a case study. Allometric relationships were used to model architectural traits from individual leaflets to the entire crown while accounting for ontogenetic and morphogenetic gradients. Inter- and intra-progeny variabilities were evaluated for each trait and mixed-effect models were used to estimate the mean and variance parameters required for complete 3D virtual plants. Significant differences in leaf geometry (petiole length, density of leaflets, and rachis curvature) and leaflet morphology (gradients of leaflet length and width) were detected between and within progenies and were modelled in order to generate populations of plants that were consistent with the observed populations. The application of mixed-effect models on allometric relationships highlighted an interesting trade-off between model accuracy and ease of defining parameters for the 3D reconstruction of plants while at the same time integrating their observed variability. Future research will be dedicated to sensitivity analyses coupling the structural model presented here with a radiative balance model in order to identify the key architectural traits involved in light interception efficiency. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Genetic variability of glutathione S-transferase enzymes in human populations: functional inter-ethnic differences in detoxification systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polimanti, Renato; Carboni, Cinzia; Baesso, Ilenia; Piacentini, Sara; Iorio, Andrea; De Stefano, Gian Franco; Fuciarelli, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Glutathione S-Transferase enzymes (GSTs) constitute the principal Phase II superfamily which plays a key role in cellular detoxification and in other biological processes. Studies of GSTs have revealed that genetic polymorphisms are present in these enzymes and that some of these are Loss-of-Function (LoF) variants, which affect enzymatic functions and are related to different aspects of human health. The aim of this study was to analyze functional genetic differences in GST enzymes among human populations. Attention was focused on LoF polymorphisms of GSTA1, GSTM1, GSTO1, GSTO2, GSTP1 and GSTT1 genes. These LoF variants were analyzed in 668 individuals belonging to six human groups with different ethnic backgrounds: Amhara and Oromo from Ethiopia; Colorado and Cayapa Amerindians and African Ecuadorians from Ecuador; and one sample from central Italy. The HapMap database was used to compare our data with reference populations and to analyze the haplotype and Linkage Disequilibrium diversity in different ethnic groups. Our results highlighted that ethnicity strongly affects the genetic variability of GST enzymes. In particular, GST haplotypes/variants with functional impact showed significant differences in human populations, according to their ethnic background. These data underline that human populations have different structures in detoxification genes, suggesting that these ethnic differences influence disease risk or response to drugs and therefore have implications for genetic association studies involving GST enzymes. In conclusion, our investigation provides data about the distribution of important LoF variants in GST genes in human populations. This information may be useful for designing and interpreting genetic association studies.

  4. Inter population variability of frost-resistance in provenances of scot pines (Pinusylvestris L.R. hamata Steven in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özel Halil Barış

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Frost-resistance variability of Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L. var. hamata Steven seedlings grown in nurseries conditions, originated from 10 provenances, have been analyzed. The provenances from Black Sea region, Central Anatolian region and Eastern Anatolian region in Turkey have been used in selection of seed zones. The results of frost-resistance tests indicated a strong relationship of implemented freezing degrees with injury degrees of Scotch pine needles and photosynthetic productivities. On the other hand, another significant relationship has been determined between chlorophyll fluorescence and ion leakage methods (r=-0.801. This result shows that those two methods can be safely used in determining the damages due to low temperatures. In frost resistance tests, Scotch pine seedlings from different provenances have been frozen at -10, -20, -30 and -40°C. According to the Duncan test results, it has been determined that damage increased as temperature decreased. The damage level at -10°C implementation is 3.5% which can be tolerated by plants. But when the temperature has been decreased to -20°C, the level of damage has increased to 51.25%. As a result of photosynthetic analyses in this phase, it has been determined that there is a statistically significant relationship between provenances and temperature levels. Under the light of those findings, they have determined that the photosynthetic productivity has significantly decreased at temperatures between -20°C and -40°C. This situation conforms to injury index values determined in this study. As a result of injury index and photosynthetic productivity tests used for determining the damage after frost-resistance tests, it has been determined that the provenances of Amasya-Kunduz, Bolu-Aladağ, Düzce-Yığılca, Samsun-Vezirköprü and Eskişehir-Çatacık are more sensitive to frost than other provenances.

  5. Individualized, discrete event, simulations provide insight into inter- and intra-subject variability of extended-release, drug products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Sean HJ

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective Develop and validate particular, concrete, and abstract yet plausible in silico mechanistic explanations for large intra- and interindividual variability observed for eleven bioequivalence study participants. Do so in the face of considerable uncertainty about mechanisms. Methods We constructed an object-oriented, discrete event model called subject (we use small caps to distinguish computational objects from their biological counterparts. It maps abstractly to a dissolution test system and study subject to whom product was administered orally. A subject comprises four interconnected grid spaces and event mechanisms that map to different physiological features and processes. Drugs move within and between spaces. We followed an established, Iterative Refinement Protocol. Individualized mechanisms were made sufficiently complicated to achieve prespecified Similarity Criteria, but no more so. Within subjects, the dissolution space is linked to both a product-subject Interaction Space and the GI tract. The GI tract and Interaction Space connect to plasma, from which drug is eliminated. Results We discovered parameterizations that enabled the eleven subject simulation results to achieve the most stringent Similarity Criteria. Simulated profiles closely resembled those with normal, odd, and double peaks. We observed important subject-by-formulation interactions within subjects. Conclusion We hypothesize that there were interactions within bioequivalence study participants corresponding to the subject-by-formulation interactions within subjects. Further progress requires methods to transition currently abstract subject mechanisms iteratively and parsimoniously to be more physiologically realistic. As that objective is achieved, the approach presented is expected to become beneficial to drug development (e.g., controlled release and to a reduction in the number of subjects needed per study plus faster regulatory review.

  6. Dietary intake polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and associated cancer risk in a cohort of Chinese urban adults: Inter- and intra-individual variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Xiaoli; Shen, Guofeng; Yang, Hongbiao; Tian, Jing; Wei, Fusheng; Gong, Jicheng; Zhang, Junfeng Jim

    2016-02-01

    Dietary intake is one of the major exposure pathways of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), especially in Chinese people because foods are often prepared with grilling and/or frying that would produce high levels of PAHs. In this paper, we assessed daily dietary intakes (DDI) of PAHs, using a "duplicate plate method", among 100 Chinese urban residents. The DDI of benzo(a)pyrene ranged from 0.06 µg per day to 13.5 µg per day with a median of 0.69 µg per day, varying largely across subjects. The median Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) attributable to PAH dietary intake was 6.65 × 10(-5) (4.41 × 10(-5) to 1.02 × 10(-4) as inter-quartile range). The contribution of several high-PAH containing foods like barbecued, smoked or deep-fried meats to the overall DDIs was about 13%. The use of raw foods may underestimate dietary intake of PAHs and associated exposure risk considerably. Results from foods sampled in different seasons suggested that seasonal variability within an individual may contribute notably to overall variability measured in a population and more future studies with longer-term investigation on food ingestion and pollutant exposure are needed. The study indicates that measuring actually consumed foods is more appropriate for dietary intake exposure assessment, and intra-individual variance should be taken into account during study design and data analysis.

  7. One-Year Plasma N-linked Glycome Intra-individual and Inter-individual Variability in the Chicken Model of Spontaneous Ovarian Adenocarcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, R. Brent; Bereman, Michael S.; Petitte, James N.; Hawkridge, Adam M.; Muddiman, David C.

    2010-01-01

    Spontaneous epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in the chicken presents a similar pathogenesis compared with humans including CA-125 expression and genetic mutational frequencies (e.g., p53). The high prevalence of spontaneous EOC chickens also provides a unique experimental model for biomarker discovery at the genomic, proteomic, glycomic, and metabolomic level. In an effort to exploit this unique model for biomarker discovery, longitudinal plasma samples were collected from chickens at three month intervals for one year. The study described herein involved cleaving the N-glycans from these longitudinal chicken plasma samples and analyzing them via nanoLC-FTMS/MS. Glycans identified in this study were previously found in human plasma and this work provides a promising methodology to enable longitudinal studies of the N-linked plasma glycome profile during EOC progression. The structure, abundance, and intra-variability and inter-variability for 35 N-linked glycans identified in this study are reported. The full potential of the chicken model for biomarker discovery has yet to be realized, but the initial interrogation of longitudinally-procured samples provides evidence that supports the value of this strategy in the search for glycomic biomarkers. PMID:21845070

  8. Intra- and inter-individual variability of Aspergillus fumigatus reactive T-cell frequencies in healthy volunteers in dependency of mould exposure in residential and working environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurster, Sebastian; Weis, Philipp; Page, Lukas; Helm, Johanna; Lazariotou, Maria; Einsele, Hermann; Ullmann, Andrew J

    2017-10-01

    Invasive aspergillosis remains a deadly disease in immunocompromised patients, whereas the combination of an exaggerated immune response and continuous exposure lead to various hyperinflammatory diseases. This pilot study aimed to gain an overview of the intra- and inter-individual variability in Aspergillus fumigatus reactive T-helper cells in healthy adults and the correlation with environmental mould exposure. In this flow cytometric study, the frequencies of CD154(+) A. fumigatus reactive T cells were evaluated in 70 healthy volunteers. All subjects completed a standardised questionnaire addressing their mould exposure. Subjects with intensive mould exposure in their professional or residential surrounding demonstrated considerably higher mean frequencies of A. fumigatus reactive T-helper and T-memory cells. Comparative evaluation of multiple measurements over time demonstrated relatively conserved reactive T-cell frequencies in the absence of major changes to the exposure profile, whereas those frequently exposed in professional environment or with changes to their risk score demonstrated a marked dependency of antigen reactive T-cell frequencies on recent mould exposure. This pilot study was the first to provide data on the intra-individual variability in A. fumigatus reactive T-cell frequencies and its linkage to mould encounter. Fungus reactive T cells are to be considered a valued tool for the assessment of environmental mould exposure. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. Unit-specific calibration of Actigraph accelerometers in a mechanical setup - is it worth the effort? The effect on random output variation caused by technical inter-instrument variability in the laboratory and in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moeller, Niels C; Korsholm, Lars; Kristensen, Peter L

    2008-01-01

    during free living conditions. RESULTS: Calibration reduced inter-instrument variability considerably in the mechanical setup, both in the MTI instruments (raw SDbetween units = 195 counts*min-1 vs. calibrated SDbetween units = 65 counts*min-1) and in the CSA instruments (raw SDbetween units = 343 counts...... conditions had no apparent effect on inter-instrument variability. In all probability, the effect of technical calibration was primarily attenuated in the field by other more dominant sources of variation. However, routine technical assessments are still very important for determining the acceleration...

  10. Variable Chandler and Annual Wobbles in Earth's Polar Motion During 1900-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guocheng; Liu, Lintao; Su, Xiaoqing; Liang, Xinghui; Yan, Haoming; Tu, Yi; Li, Zhonghua; Li, Wenping

    2016-11-01

    The Chandler wobble (CW) and annual wobble (AW) are the two main components of polar motion, which are difficult to separate because of their very close periods. In the light of Fourier dictionary and basis pursuit method, a Fourier basis pursuit (FBP) spectrum is developed, which can reduce spectral smearing and leakage caused by the finite length of the time series. Further, a band-pass filtering method based on FBP spectrum (FBPBPF), which can effectively suppress the edge effect, is proposed in this paper. The simulation test results show that the FBPBPF method can effectively suppress the edge effect caused by spectral smearing and leakage and that its reconstruction accuracy at the boundary is approximately three times higher than the Fourier transform band-pass filtering method, which is based on Hamming windowed FFT spectrum, in extracting quasi-harmonic signals. The FBPBPF method is then applied to Earth's polar motion data during 1900-2015. Through analyzing the amplitude and period variations of CW and AW, and calculating the eccentricity variation of the AW, we found that: (1) the amplitude of the CW is currently at a historic minimum level, and it is even possible to diminish further until a complete stop; and (2) the eccentricity of the AW has a gradually decreased fluctuation during the last 116 years.

  11. Effects of climate variables on intra-annual stem radial increment in Pinus cembra (L.) along the alpine treeline ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Andreas; Zimmermann, Jolanda; Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter

    2009-08-01

    Within the alpine treeline ecotone tree growth is increasingly restricted by extreme climate conditions. Although intra-annual stem growth recorded by dendrometers can be linked to climate, stem diameter increments in slow-growing subalpine trees are masked by changes in tree water status.We tested the hypothesis that intra-annual radial stem growth in Pinus cembra is influenced by different climate variables along the treeline ecotone in the Austrian Alps. Dendrometer traces were compared with dynamics of xylem cell development to date onset of cambial activity and radial stem growth in spring.Daily fluctuations in stem radius reflected changes in tree water status throughout the treeline ecotone. Extracted daily radial increments were significantly correlated with air temperature at the timberline and treeline only, where budburst, cambial activity and enlargement of first tracheids also occurred quite similarly. A close relationship was detected between radial increment and number of enlarging tracheids throughout the treeline ecotone.We conclude that (i) the relationship between climate and radial stem growth within the treeline ecotone is dependent on a close coupling to atmospheric climate conditions and (ii) initiation of cambial activity and radial growth in spring can be distinguished from stem re-hydration by histological analysis.

  12. Inter- and intra-specimen variability masks reliable temperature control on shell Mg/Ca ratios in laboratory and field cultured Mytilus edulis and Pecten maximus (bivalvia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. Kennedy

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The Mg/Ca ratios of biogenic calcites are commonly seen as a valuable palaeo-proxy for reconstructing past ocean temperatures. The temperature dependence of Mg/Ca ratios in bivalve calcite has been the subject of contradictory observations. The palaeoceanographic use of a geochemical proxy, like Mg/Ca ratios, is dependent on initial, rigorous calibration and validation of relationships between the proxy and the ambient environmental variable to be reconstructed. Shell Mg/Ca ratio data are reported for the calcite of two bivalve species, Mytilus edulis (common mussel and Pecten maximus (king scallop, for the first time grown in laboratory culturing experiments at controlled and constant aquarium seawater temperatures over a range from ~10 to ~20°C. Furthermore, Mg/Ca ratio data of laboratory-grown and field-grown M. edulis specimens were compared. Only a weak, albeit significant, shell Mg/Ca ratio–temperature relationship was observed in the two bivalve species: M. edulis (r2=0.37, pr2=0.50, pP. maximus (r2=0.21, p<0.001, laboratory cultured specimens only. In the two species, shell Mg/Ca ratios also were not found to be controlled by shell growth rate and salinity. Furthermore, measurement of Mg/Ca ratios in the shells of multiple specimens illustrated that a large degree of variability in the measured shell Mg/Ca ratios was significant at the species, inter- and intra-individual shell levels. The study data suggest the use of bivalve calcite Mg/Ca ratios as a reliable, precise and accurate temperature proxy still remains limited, at least in the species studied to date. Such limitations are most likely due to the presence of significant physiological effects on Mg incorporation in bivalve calcite, with such variability differing both within single shells and between shells of the same species that were precipitated under the same ambient conditions.

  13. Greenland Sea Odden sea ice feature: Intra-annual and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuchman, R.A.; Josberger, E.G.; Russel, C.A.; Fischer, K.W.; Johannessen, O.M.; Johannessen, J.; Gloersen, P.

    1998-01-01

    The "Odden" is a large sea ice feature that forms in the east Greenland Sea that may protrude eastward to 5??E from the main sea ice pack (at about 8??W) between 73?? and 77??N. It generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km2. Throughout the winter the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on timescales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. Aircraft synthetic aperture radar, satellite passive microwave, and ship observations in the Odden show that the Odden consists of new ice types, rather than older ice types advected eastward from the main pack. The 17-year record shows both strong interannual and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. For example, in 1983 the Odden was weak, in 1984 the Odden did not occur, and in 1985 the Odden returned late in the season. An analysis of the ice area and extent time series derived from the satellite passive microwave observations along with meteorological data from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) determined the meteorological forcing associated with Odden growth, maintenance, and decay. The key meteorological parameters that are related to the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Oceanographic parameters must play an important role in controlling Odden formation, but it is not yet possible to quantify this role because of a lack of long-term oceanographic observations. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Variability in the annual cycle of Northern Hemisphere snow extent, using a newly completed climate data record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, G. R.; Leathers, D. J.; Robinson, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    Variability in the annual cycle of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) may have important impacts on the global climate system through a number of potential feedback mechanisms. Motivated by recent snow literature heralding reports ranging from earlier spring melt, to an overall seasonal decrease in SCE, both spatial and temporal variability in extent are explored using a newly completed SCE climate data record (CDR). From a hydrologic standpoint, such shifts have huge implications to the overall climatology of any region with snow present in its seasonal cycle. The SCE CDR utilized in this study is the result of a reanalysis of NOAA satellite-derived maps of NH continental SCE and begins in 1966. The earlier 33 years of data are drawn from coarse-scale weekly NOAA maps, whilst recent years are based on a downgraded version of the IMS 24 km NOAA product, currently produced by the National Ice Center. The Rutgers Global Snow Lab undertook reanalysis and merging of the different resolution datasets as part of the NASA MEaSUREs project. Principal component (PC) analysis was performed on the annual cycle of NH, and individual continental snow extent totals. Close to 75% of variance was explained by the first three PCs, in the case of NH and Eurasia snow extents. Snow composite analysis based on positive PC scores time series years displays greater snow extent, in excess of 4 × 106 km2 in the case of the NH alone. Preliminary assessment of associations with large-scale atmospheric patterns (e.g. surface air temperature, mid-tropospheric geopotential height), yielded patterns indicative of know teleconnection patterns such as the AO and NAO indices. Results from additional PC analysis performed spatially on the SCE CDR will be discussed.

  15. Developing a tool for obtaining maternal skinfold thickness measurements and assessing inter-observer variability among pregnant women who are overweight and obese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kannieappan Lavern M

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is estimated that between 34% and 50% of Australian women entering pregnancy are overweight and obese, which is associated with an increased risk in complications for both the woman and her infant. Current tools used in clinical and research practice for measuring body composition include body mass index (BMI, waist circumference and bioimpedance analysis. Not all of these measures are applicable for use during pregnancy due to a lack of differentiation between maternal and fetal contributions. While skinfold thickness measurement (SFTM is increasingly being used in pregnancy, there is limited data and a lack of a standard tool for its use in overweight and obese pregnant women. Methods We developed a standard tool for evaluating SFTM among women with a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2. Forty-nine women were measured as part of a prospective cohort study nested within a multicentre randomised controlled trial (The LIMIT Randomised Controlled Trial. Two blinded observers each performed 2 skinfold measurements on the biceps, triceps and subscapular of each woman. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC and standard error of measurement (SEM were used to analyse SFTM, body fat percentage (BF% and inter-observer variability. Results The ICC for inter-observer variability in measurements were considered moderate for biceps SFTM (ICC = 0.56 and triceps SFTM (ICC = 0.51; good for subscapular SFTM (ICC = 0.71 and BF% (ICC = 0.74; and excellent for arm circumference (ICC = 0.97. The standard error of measurements ranged from 0.53 cm for arm circumference to 3.58 mm for the subscapular SFTM. Conclusion Our findings indicate that arm circumference and biceps, triceps and subscapular SFTM can be reliably obtained from overweight and obese pregnant women to calculate BF%, using multiple observers, and can be used in a research setting. Trial registration Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN

  16. Annual variability of acetone in the UTLS region based on ICON-ART simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weimer, Michael; Schröter, Jennifer; Eckstein, Johannes; Deetz, Konrad; Neumaier, Marco; Fischbeck, Garlich; Rieger, Daniel; Vogel, Heike; Vogel, Bernhard; Reddmann, Thomas; Kirner, Oliver; Ruhnke, Roland; Braesicke, Peter

    2017-04-01

    We present results of an extension to the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic modelling framework (ICON) [1]. ICON is a joint project of the German Weather Service and the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. We use the Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ART) extension for ICON which currently is under development [2]. Here, the module for including emissions from external data sources has been implemented and exploited [3]. Our test cases are the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We test the sensitivity of the VOC concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) driven by prescribed emission inventories and online calculated emissions. Because VOCs are influencing the HOx equilibrium the annual cycle of VOCs matter for UTLS ozone concentrations. In the UTLS region, the HOx production due to photooxidation of the VOC acetone gets in the same order as that due to photolysis of ozone. Therefore, acetone is one of the main regulators of HOx and ozone in this region. We compare our simulations of acetone concentrations with ground-based and CARIBIC airborne measurements for different emission scenarios and different parametrisations of the acetone lifetime. [1] Zängl, G., Reinert, D., Rípodas, P., and Baldauf, M.: The ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M: Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamical core, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 563-579, doi:10.1002/qj.2378, 2015. [2] Rieger, D., Bangert, M., Bischoff-Gauss, I., Förstner, J., Lundgren, K., Reinert, D., Schröter, J., Vogel, H., Zängl, G., Ruhnke, R., and Vogel, B.: ICON-ART 1.0 - a new online-coupled model system from the global to regional scale, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1659-1676, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1659-2015, 2015. [3] Weimer, M., Schröter, J., Eckstein, J., Deetz, K., Neumaier, M., Fischbeck, G., Rieger, D., Vogel, H., Vogel, B., Reddmann, T., Kirner, O., Ruhnke, R., and Braesicke, P.: A new module for trace gas emissions in ICON-ART 2.0: A

  17. Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models.

  18. Inter-individual variability in sensory weighting of a plantar pressure-based, tongue-placed tactile biofeedback for controlling posture

    CERN Document Server

    Vuillerme, Nicolas; Boisgontier, Matthieu; Chenu, Olivier; Demongeot, Jacques; Payan, Yohan

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the present experiment was to investigate whether the sensory weighting of a plantar pressure-based, tongue-placed tactile biofeedback for controlling posture could be subject to inter-individual variability. To achieve this goal, 60 young healthy adults were asked to stand as immobile as possible with their eyes closed in two conditions of No-biofeedback and Biofeedback. Centre of foot pressure (CoP) displacements were recorded using a force platform. Overall, results showed reduced CoP displacements in the Biofeedback relative to the No-biofeedback condition, evidencing the ability of the central nervous system to efficiently integrate an artificial plantar-based, tongue-placed tactile biofeedback for controlling posture during quiet standing. Results further showed a significant positive correlation between the CoP displacements measured in the No-biofeedback condition and the decrease in the CoP displacements induced by the use of the biofeedback. In other words, the degree of postural stab...

  19. Genetic variability and geographic differentiation in Thymus daenensis subsp. daenensis, an endangered medicinal plant, as revealed by inter simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimmalek, Mehdi; Bahreininejad, Babak; Khorrami, Mojtaba; Tabatabaei, Badraldin Ebrahim Sayed

    2009-12-01

    Thymus daenensis is an aromatic medicinal plant endemic to Iran. We used inter simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers to detect genetic polymorphism in this herb using 17 T. daenensis accessions collected from different geographic regions in Iran. The 15 primers chosen for analysis revealed 256 bands, of which 228 (88.9%) were polymorphic. Jaccard's similarity indices based on ISSR profiles were subjected to UPGMA cluster analysis. The generated dendrogram revealed two major groups. The Tc group included the accessions collected from the center of the Zagros Mountains, and the Te group was collected from the extremes of the Zagros range. A principal coordinate analysis confirmed the results of clustering. The results showed that the divergence of accessions based on the Zagros Mountains is more logical in comparison with classification on the basis of provincial borders. Gene diversity and expected heterozygosity were greater in the Tc group than in the Te group, suggesting that the germplasm collected from the center of the Zagros Mountains is more variable.

  20. The inter- and intra-operator variability in manual spot segmentation and its effect on spot quantitation in two-dimensional electrophoresis analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millioni, Renato; Sbrignadello, Stefano; Tura, Andrea; Iori, Elisabetta; Murphy, Ellen; Tessari, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    Separation of complex mixtures of proteins by 2-DE is a fundamental component of current proteomic technology. Quantitative analysis of the images generated by digitization of such gels is critical for identifying alterations in protein expression within a given biological system. Software packages are designed for this purpose. The accurate definition of protein spot boundaries, using a suitable method of image segmentation, is a key requirement for image analysis. It is often necessary for operators to intervene manually to correct mistakes in spot segmentation; therefore operator subjectivity and differences in ability can weaken the analysis. We estimated the error in spot quantification after manual spot segmentation, which was performed by different operators, using two different software packages. Our results clearly show that this operation was associated with significant inter- and intra-variability and an overestimation of subsequent spot intensity, especially when spots were weak. For comparative studies, we suggest separately analysing spots which have been manually segmented by imposing a requirement for at least a threefold difference in spot intensity in addition to use of statistical tests.

  1. Inter- and intraspecific genomic variability of the 16S-23S intergenic spacer regions (ISR) in representatives of Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans and Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Yong-Qing; Yang, Yuan; Bao, Jing-Ting; He, Kai-Yu; Li, Hong-Yu

    2007-05-01

    The complete sequences of 32 intergenic spacer regions (ISR) from Acidithiobacillus strains, including 29 field strains isolated from coal, copper, molybdenum mine wastes or sediment of different geoclimatic regions in China, reference strain ATCC19859 and the type strains of the two species were determined. These data, together with other sequences available in the GenBank database, were used to carry out the first detailed assessment of the inter- and intraspecific genomic variability of the ISR sequences and to infer phylogenetic relationships within the genus. The total length of the 16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer regions of the Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans and Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans strains ranged from 451 to 490 bp, and from 434 to 456 bp, respectively. The degree of intrageneric ISR sequence similarity was higher than the degree of intergeneric similarity, and the overall similarity values of the ISRs varied from 60.49% to 84.71% between representatives of different species of the genus Acidithiobacillus. Sequences from the spacer of the A. thiooxidans and A. ferrooxidans strains ranged from 86.71% to 99.56% and 92.36% to 100% similarity, respectively. All Acidithiobacillus strains were separated into three phylogenetic major clusters and seven phylogenetic groups. ISR may be a potential target for the development of in situ hybridization probe aimed at accurately detecting acidithiobacilli in the various acidic environments.

  2. Impact of Flavonols on Cardiometabolic Biomarkers: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Human Trials to Explore the Role of Inter-Individual Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes, Regina; Rodriguez-Mateos, Ana; Kaltsatou, Antonia; González-Sarrías, Antonio; Greyling, Arno; Giannaki, Christoforos; Andres-Lacueva, Cristina; Milenkovic, Dragan; Gibney, Eileen R.; Dumont, Julie; Schär, Manuel; Garcia-Aloy, Mar; Palma-Duran, Susana Alejandra; Ruskovska, Tatjana; Maksimova, Viktorija; Combet, Emilie; Pinto, Paula

    2017-01-01

    Several epidemiological studies have linked flavonols with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, some heterogeneity in the individual physiological responses to the consumption of these compounds has been identified. This meta-analysis aimed to study the effect of flavonol supplementation on biomarkers of CVD risk such as, blood lipids, blood pressure and plasma glucose, as well as factors affecting their inter-individual variability. Data from 18 human randomized controlled trials were pooled and the effect was estimated using fixed or random effects meta-analysis model and reported as difference in means (DM). Variability in the response of blood lipids to supplementation with flavonols was assessed by stratifying various population subgroups: age, sex, country, and health status. Results showed significant reductions in total cholesterol (DM = −0.10 mmol/L; 95% CI: −0.20, −0.01), LDL cholesterol (DM = −0.14 mmol/L; 95% CI: −0.21, 0.07), and triacylglycerol (DM = −0.10 mmol/L; 95% CI: −0.18, 0.03), and a significant increase in HDL cholesterol (DM = 0.05 mmol/L; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.07). A significant reduction was also observed in fasting plasma glucose (DM = −0.18 mmol/L; 95% CI: −0.29, −0.08), and in blood pressure (SBP: DM = −4.84 mmHg; 95% CI: −5.64, −4.04; DBP: DM = −3.32 mmHg; 95% CI: −4.09, −2.55). Subgroup analysis showed a more pronounced effect of flavonol intake in participants from Asian countries and in participants with diagnosed disease or dyslipidemia, compared to healthy and normal baseline values. In conclusion, flavonol consumption improved biomarkers of CVD risk, however, country of origin and health status may influence the effect of flavonol intake on blood lipid levels. PMID:28208791

  3. Skin barrier function in healthy volunteers as assessed by transepidermal water loss and vascular response to hexyl nicotinate: intra- and inter-individual variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oestmann, E; Lavrijsen, A P; Hermans, J; Ponec, M

    1993-02-01

    This study assesses the variability of two non-invasive methods of measuring stratum corneum barrier function in vivo. Transepidermal water loss (TEWL), and the vascular response to hexyl nicotinate (HN) penetration as determined by laser-Doppler flowmetry, were measured in a group of 21 healthy volunteers. Each time profile of the vascular response to HN penetration was analysed using the following parameters: the baseline cutaneous blood flow, the lag-time between application and initial response (t0), the time between application and maximum response (tmax), the maximum response, and the slope of the curve. TEWL measured on the left volar forearm showed a normal range of 3.9-7.6 g/m2h and a small inter-individual variability [coefficient of variation (CV) 19.4%]. TEWL values at three other forearm sites did not show differences of clinical importance compared with the left volar forearm. The parameters of the vascular response to HN penetration spanned a wider normal range than the TEWL values (CV between 33 and 52%). Repeat measurements after a 1-2 month interval showed highly reproducible individual TEWL values. The mean difference between first and second measurements was only 0.03 g/m2h; the relative difference 0.6%. The intra-individual reproducibility of t0 and tmax. for HN penetration was also high (relative differences of 2.8 and 3.1%, respectively). The other vascular response parameters were less reproducible (relative differences of 6.9-18.6%). We conclude that TEWL and selected parameters of HN penetration, as non-invasive tests of the stratum corneum barrier function, yield reproducible results and are hence useful for investigations assessing the skin barrier function in various disorders.

  4. Water balance and its intra-annual variability in a permafrost catchment: hydrological interactions between catchment, lake and talik

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bosson

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Few hydrological studies have been made in Greenland with focus on permafrost hydrology rather than on the glacial hydrology associated with the Greenland ice sheet. Understanding permafrost hydrology, and its reflection and propagation of hydroclimatic change and variability, however, can be a key to understand important climate change effects and feedbacks in arctic landscapes. This paper presents a new extensive and detailed hydrological dataset, with high temporal resolution of main hydrological parameters, for a permafrost catchment with a lake underlain by a talik close to the Greenland ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq region, western Greenland. The paper describes the hydrological site investigations and data collection, and their synthesis and interpretation to develop a conceptual hydrological model. The catchment and lake water balances and their intra-annual variability, and uncertainty intervals for key water balance components, are quantified. The study incorporates all relevant hydrological processes within the catchment and, specifically, links the surface water system to both supra-permafrost and sub-permafrost groundwater. The dataset enabled water balance quantification with high degree of confidence. The measured hydraulic gradient between the lake and the groundwater in the talik shows this to be a groundwater recharging talik. Surface processes, dominated by evapotranspiration during the active flow period, and by snow dynamics during the frozen winter period, influence the temporal variation of groundwater pressure in the talik. This shows the hydrology in the catchment as being rather independent from external large-scale landscape features, including those of the close-by ice sheet.

  5. Work flow with manual re-registration of cardiac 18F-FDG PET and attenuation correction CT to compensate for respiratory motion: Effects and inter-operator variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Christian; Christensen, Nana Louise; Møller, Lone W.

    cases where the manual re-registration resulted in new artefacts. These were, however, easily identified and eliminated by second technologist in the verification-step resulting in an overall insignificant inter-operator variability. In conclusion, manual re-registration reduces artefacts due...

  6. Spatiotemporal variability in carbon exchange fluxes across the Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tagesson, Håkan Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Cappelaere, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Semi-arid regions play an increasingly important role as a sink within the global carbon (C) cycle and is the main biome driving inter-annual variability in carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. This indicates the need for detailed studies of spatiotemporal variability in C cycling...

  7. Identification of early target genes of aflatoxin B1 in human hepatocytes, inter-individual variability and comparison with other genotoxic compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Josse, Rozenn; Dumont, Julie; Fautrel, Alain; Robin, Marie-Anne; Guillouzo, André, E-mail: andre.guillouzo@univ-rennes1.fr

    2012-01-15

    Gene expression profiling has recently emerged as a promising approach to identify early target genes and discriminate genotoxic carcinogens from non-genotoxic carcinogens and non-carcinogens. However, early gene changes induced by genotoxic compounds in human liver remain largely unknown. Primary human hepatocytes and differentiated HepaRG cells were exposed to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) that induces DNA damage following enzyme-mediated bioactivation. Gene expression profile changes induced by a 24 h exposure of these hepatocyte models to 0.05 and 0.25 μM AFB1 were analyzed by using oligonucleotide pangenomic microarrays. The main altered signaling pathway was the p53 pathway and related functions such as cell cycle, apoptosis and DNA repair. Direct involvement of the p53 protein in response to AFB1 was verified by using siRNA directed against p53. Among the 83 well-annotated genes commonly modulated in two pools of three human hepatocyte populations and HepaRG cells, several genes were identified as altered by AFB1 for the first time. In addition, a subset of 10 AFB1-altered genes, selected upon basis of their function or tumor suppressor role, was tested in four human hepatocyte populations and in response to other chemicals. Although they exhibited large variable inter-donor fold-changes, several of these genes, particularly FHIT, BCAS3 and SMYD3, were found to be altered by various direct and other indirect genotoxic compounds and unaffected by non-genotoxic compounds. Overall, this comprehensive analysis of early gene expression changes induced by AFB1 in human hepatocytes identified a gene subset that included several genes representing potential biomarkers of genotoxic compounds. -- Highlights: ► Gene expression profile changes induced by aflatoxin B1 in human hepatocytes. ► AFB1 modulates various genes including tumor suppressor genes and proto-oncogenes. ► Important inter-individual variations in the response to AFB1. ► Some genes also altered by other

  8. Annual variability and regulation of methane and sulfate fluxes in Baltic Sea estuarine sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Joanna E.; Brüchert, Volker

    2017-01-01

    Marine methane emissions originate largely from near-shore coastal systems, but emission estimates are often not based on temporally well-resolved data or sufficient understanding of the variability of methane consumption and production processes in the underlying sediment. The objectives of our investigation were to explore the effects of seasonal temperature, changes in benthic oxygen concentration, and historical eutrophication on sediment methane concentrations and benthic fluxes at two type localities for open-water coastal versus eutrophic, estuarine sediment in the Baltic Sea. Benthic fluxes of methane and oxygen and sediment pore-water concentrations of dissolved sulfate, methane, and 35S-sulfate reduction rates were obtained over a 12-month period from April 2012 to April 2013. Benthic methane fluxes varied by factors of 5 and 12 at the offshore coastal site and the eutrophic estuarine station, respectively, ranging from 0.1 mmol m-2 d-1 in winter at an open coastal site to 2.6 mmol m-2 d-1 in late summer in the inner eutrophic estuary. Total oxygen uptake (TOU) and 35S-sulfate reduction rates (SRRs) correlated with methane fluxes showing low rates in the winter and high rates in the summer. The highest pore-water methane concentrations also varied by factors of 6 and 10 over the sampling period with the lowest values in the winter and highest values in late summer-early autumn. The highest pore-water methane concentrations were 5.7 mM a few centimeters below the sediment surface, but they never exceeded the in situ saturation concentration. Of the total sulfate reduction, 21-24 % was coupled to anaerobic methane oxidation, lowering methane concentrations below the sediment surface far below the saturation concentration. The data imply that bubble emission likely plays no or only a minor role in methane emissions in these sediments. The changes in pore-water methane concentrations over the observation period were too large to be explained by temporal

  9. Evaluating intra- and inter- sample variability in Electron Spin Resonance dating of fossil teeth: an example from Cuesta de la Bajada site (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Mathieu; Grün, Rainer; Shao, Qingfeng; Martin, Loïc; Arnold, Lee J.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decades, technological improvements have progressively enabled to significantly decrease the amount of material required for dating analyses. In particular, the combined use of laser ablation (LA) with ICP-MS opened new possibilities for high resolution in situ U-series analyses of fossil teeth. With this technique it is now possible to directly visualise the spatial distribution of U and Th isotopes in dental tissues. Moreover, the combination of LA-ICP-MS with Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) enables an increased sampling resolution, and offers the possibility to produce several ages for different areas within a given fossil tooth. To test the potential of this new approach, several fossil teeth were collected from the Middle Palaeolithic site of Cuesta de la Bajada (Teruel, Spain). Each tooth was divided into several subsamples, providing thus several combined US-ESR age results per tooth. For each subsample, ESR, high-resolution laser ablation and solution ICP-MS U-series analyses were systematically performed. Relative beta dose rate contributions from the different tissues and the sediment were also adjusted using DosiVox software and compared with those derived from the standard approach. The results of this work give some interesting insight into the intra- and inter- sample variability that may exist at a given site. The consistency of the final US-ESR age estimates obtained on teeth are also evaluated by comparison with the (semi)-independent results derived from ESR and Luminescence dating of optically bleached quartz grains collected from the same excavation area.

  10. Mercury in the Blue Marlin (Makaira nigricans) from the Southern Gulf of California: Tissue Distribution and Inter-Annual Variation (2005-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega-Sánchez, B; Ortega-García, S; Ruelas-Inzunza, J; Frías-Espericueta, M; Escobar-Sánchez, O; Guzmán-Rendón, J

    2017-02-01

    With the aim of knowing annual variations of Hg concentrations in muscle and liver of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) from the southern Gulf of California, fish were collected between 2005 and 2012 in three areas. In general, Hg levels were more elevated in liver than in muscle. Variations of Hg concentrations in muscle and liver among the studied years were not significant. Hg levels in muscle and liver increased significantly with length and weight of fish. In comparison to other studies, Hg levels in muscle and liver were lower. With respect to maximum permissible limits (1.0 µg g(-1) wet weight) of Hg in Mexico, the average concentration (1.91 µg g(-1) wet weight) in the edible portion (muscle) of blue marlin was over the legal limit; this issue is worth research efforts in relation to the rate of ingestion of this species and the co-occurrence of selenium in the edible portion.

  11. Work flow with manual re-registration of cardiac 18F-FDG PET and attenuation correction CT to compensate for respiratory motion: Effects and inter-operator variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Christian; Christensen, Nana Louise; Møller, Lone W.;

    observed in 15 % (6/40) of the scans, and, as expected, mainly in lateral segments. It was estimated that 80% (5/6) of these artefacts could be reduced using manual re-registration procedure. This is in agreement with previous reports1-3. The inter-operator variability was generally low, except in a few......-registration is currently the most feasible. In this study, we examine both the effect on misalignment artefacts and the inter-operator variability of manual re-registration performed by the technologist in a step before the final image reconstruction and verified by a second technologist before image analysis. Method: 40...... 18F-FDG viability scans were examined. After the patient scan, a fast image reconstruction of low quality was made and used for manual re-registration of PET and AC CT, before starting the high quality reconstruction used for analysis. The left ventricle was reoriented and segmented in QPS (Cedar...

  12. Correction factors for determination of annual average radon concentration in dwellings of Poland resulting from seasonal variability of indoor radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozak, K., E-mail: Krzysztof.Kozak@ifj.edu.pl [Institute of Nuclear Physics PAN, Radzikowskiego 152, 31-342 Krakow (Poland); Mazur, J. [Institute of Nuclear Physics PAN, Radzikowskiego 152, 31-342 Krakow (Poland); KozLowska, B. [University of Silesia, Bankowa 12, 40-007 Katowice (Poland); Karpinska, M. [Medical University of Bialystok, Jana Kilinskiego 1, 15-089 BiaLystok (Poland); Przylibski, T.A. [WrocLaw University of Technology, Wybrzeze S. Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 WrocLaw (Poland); Mamont-Ciesla, K. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Konwaliowa 7, 03-194 Warszawa (Poland); Grzadziel, D. [Institute of Nuclear Physics PAN, Radzikowskiego 152, 31-342 Krakow (Poland); Stawarz, O. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Konwaliowa 7, 03-194 Warszawa (Poland); Wysocka, M. [Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarkow1, 40-166 Katowice (Poland); Dorda, J. [University of Silesia, Bankowa 12, 40-007 Katowice (Poland); Zebrowski, A. [WrocLaw University of Technology, Wybrzeze S. Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 WrocLaw (Poland); Olszewski, J. [Nofer Institute of Occupational Medicine, Sw.Teresy od Dzieciatka Jezus 8, 91-348 lodz (Poland); Hovhannisyan, H. [Institute of Nuclear Physics PAN, Radzikowskiego 152, 31-342 Krakow (Poland); Dohojda, M. [Institute of Building Technology (ITB), Filtrowa 1, 00-611 Warszawa (Poland); KapaLa, J. [Medical University of Bialystok, Jana Kilinskiego 1, 15-089 BiaLystok (Poland); Chmielewska, I. [Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarkow1, 40-166 Katowice (Poland); KLos, B. [University of Silesia, Bankowa 12, 40-007 Katowice (Poland); Jankowski, J. [Nofer Institute of Occupational Medicine, Sw.Teresy od Dzieciatka Jezus 8, 91-348 lodz (Poland); Mnich, S. [Medical University of Bialystok, Jana Kilinskiego 1, 15-089 BiaLystok (Poland); KoLodziej, R. [Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarkow1, 40-166 Katowice (Poland)

    2011-10-15

    The method for the calculation of correction factors is presented, which can be used for the assessment of the mean annual radon concentration on the basis of 1-month or 3-month indoor measurements. Annual radon concentration is an essential value for the determination of the annual dose due to radon inhalation. The measurements have been carried out in 132 houses in Poland over a period of one year. The passive method of track detectors with CR-39 foil was applied. Four thermal-precipitation regions in Poland were established and correction factors were calculated for each region, separately for houses with and without basements. - Highlights: > Using radon concentration results in houses we calculated the correction factors. > Factors were calculated for each month, 2 house types in different regions in Poland. > They enable the evaluation of average annual radon concentration in the house. > Annual average radon concentration basing on 1 or 3 months detector exposure.

  13. Annual and seasonal variability of metals and metalloids in urban and industrial soils in Alcalá de Henares (Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peña-Fernández, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Biomédicas, Unidad de Toxicología, Universidad de Alcalá, Crta. Madrid-Barcelona Km, 33.6, 28871 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid (Spain); Lobo-Bedmar, M.C. [Instituto Madrileño de Investigación y Desarrollo Rural Agrario y Alimentario (IMIDRA), Finca el Encín, Crta. Madrid-Barcelona Km, 38.2, 28800 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid (Spain); González-Muñoz, M.J., E-mail: mariajose.gonzalez@uah.es [Departamento de Ciencias Biomédicas, Unidad de Toxicología, Universidad de Alcalá, Crta. Madrid-Barcelona Km, 33.6, 28871 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid (Spain)

    2015-01-15

    Contamination of urban and industrial soils with trace metals has been recognized as a major concern at local, regional and global levels due to their implication on human health. In this study, concentrations of aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), tin (Sn), thallium (Tl), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) were determined in soil samples collected in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain) in order to evaluate the annual and seasonal variation in their levels. The results show that the soils of the industrial area have higher metals concentrations than the urban area. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the two principal sources of trace metal contamination, especially Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in the urban soils of Alcalá can be attributed to traffic emissions, while As, Ni and Be primarily originated from industrial discharges. The seasonal variation analysis has revealed that the emission sources in the industrial area remain constant with time. However, in urban areas, both emissions and emission pathways significantly increase over time due to ongoing development. Currently, there is no hypothesis that explains the small seasonal fluctuations of trace metals in soils, since there are many factors affecting this. Owing to the fact that urban environments are becoming the human habitat, it would therefore be advisable to monitor metals and metalloids in urban soils because of the potential risks to human health. - Highlights: • Anthropogenic activities may affect the seasonal metal variation in Alcalá's soils. • Weather characteristics may also influence the seasonal metal variation in soils. • Alcalá's continual urban growth may have increased the levels of metals in its soils. • Metal variability in Alcalá's industrial soils might be dependent on their sources. • High soil metal content might make it difficult to identify temporal variation.

  14. Annual baseflow variations as influenced by climate variability and agricultural land use change in the Missouri River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahiablame, Laurent; Sheshukov, Aleksey Y.; Rahmani, Vahid; Moriasi, Daniel

    2017-08-01

    The Missouri River system has a large water storage capacity, where baseflow plays an important role. Understanding historical baseflow characteristics with respect to climate and land use impacts is essential for effective planning and management of water resources in the Missouri River Basin (MORB). This study evaluated statistical trends in baseflow and precipitation for 99 MORB minimally disturbed watersheds during 1950-2014. Elasticity of baseflow to climate variability and agricultural land use change were quantified for the 99 studied watersheds. Baseflow was derived from daily streamflow records with a recursive digital filter method. The results showed that baseflow varied between 38 and 80% (0 and 331 mm/year) of total streamflow with an average of 60%, indicating that more than half of streamflow in the MORB is derived from baseflow. The trend analysis revealed that precipitation increased during the study period in 78 out of 99 watersheds, leading to 1-3.9% noticeable increase in baseflow for 68 of 99 watersheds. Although the changes in baseflow obtained in this study were a result of the combined effects of climate and land use change across the basin, upward trends in baseflow generally coincide with increased precipitation and agricultural land use trends in the basin. Agricultural land use increase mostly led to a 0-5.7% decrease in annual baseflow in the basin, except toward east of the basin where baseflow mostly increased with agricultural land use increase (0.1-2.0%). In general, a 1% increase in precipitation and a 1% increase in agricultural land use resulted in 1.5% increase and 0.2% decrease in baseflow, respectively, during the study period. These results are entirely dependent on the quality of data used; however, they provide useful insight into the relative influence of climate and land use change on baseflow conditions in the Great Plains region of the USA.

  15. Correction factors for determination of annual average radon concentration in dwellings of Poland resulting from seasonal variability of indoor radon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozak, K; Mazur, J; Kozłowska, B; Karpińska, M; Przylibski, T A; Mamont-Cieśla, K; Grządziel, D; Stawarz, O; Wysocka, M; Dorda, J; Zebrowski, A; Olszewski, J; Hovhannisyan, H; Dohojda, M; Kapała, J; Chmielewska, I; Kłos, B; Jankowski, J; Mnich, S; Kołodziej, R

    2011-10-01

    The method for the calculation of correction factors is presented, which can be used for the assessment of the mean annual radon concentration on the basis of 1-month or 3-month indoor measurements. Annual radon concentration is an essential value for the determination of the annual dose due to radon inhalation. The measurements have been carried out in 132 houses in Poland over a period of one year. The passive method of track detectors with CR-39 foil was applied. Four thermal-precipitation regions in Poland were established and correction factors were calculated for each region, separately for houses with and without basements.

  16. Quantitative multi-slice computed tomography assessment of the mitral valvular complex for transcatheter mitral valve interventions part 1: systematic measurement methodology and inter-observer variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thériault-Lauzier, Pascal; Mylotte, Darren; Dorfmeister, Magdalena; Spaziano, Marco; Andalib, Ali; Mamane, Samuel; Chetrit, Michael; Blanke, Philipp; Cecere, Renzo; Buithieu, Jean; Martucci, Giuseppe; Tchetche, Didier; Modine, Thomas; van Mieghem, Nicolas; Lange, Rüdiger; Windecker, Stephan; Bilodeau, Luc; Leipsic, Jonathon; Piazza, Nicolo

    2016-10-10

    Transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) is an emerging technology with the potential to treat patients with severe mitral regurgitation at excessive risk for surgical mitral valve surgery. Multimodality imaging of the mitral valvular complex and surrounding structures will be an important component for patient selection for TMVR. Our aim was to describe and evaluate a systematic multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) image analysis methodology that provides measurements relevant for transcatheter mitral valve replacement. A systematic step-by-step measurement methodology is described for structures of the mitral valvular complex including: the mitral valve annulus, left ventricle, left atrium, papillary muscles and left ventricular outflow tract. To evaluate reproducibility, two observers applied this methodology to a retrospective series of 49 cardiac MSCT scans in patients with heart failure and significant mitral regurgitation. For each of 25 geometrical metrics, we evaluated inter-observer difference and intra-class correlation. The inter-observer difference was below 10% and the intra-class correlation was above 0.81 for measurements of critical importance in the sizing of TMVR devices: the mitral valve annulus diameters, area, perimeter, the inter-trigone distance, and the aorto-mitral angle. MSCT can provide measurements that are important for patient selection and sizing of TMVR devices. These measurements have excellent inter-observer reproducibility in patients with functional mitral regurgitation.

  17. Stereological estimation of nuclear volume in benign and malignant melanocytic lesions of the skin. Inter- and intraobserver variability of malignancy grading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Flemming Brandt; Ottosen, P D

    1991-01-01

    and robust, with more than 85% of the associated observed variance explained by differences among different tumors. Inter- and intraobserver reproducibilities are high, showing correlation coefficients of .86 and .96, respectively, with slopes of the regression lines close to unity. It is concluded...

  18. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of remotely-sensed sea surface height, visible light and chlorophyll in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gawad, M.M.; Pokle, A.S.

    attenuation coefficient (kd490) 4. Sea-surface height anomaly (SSH) The phytoplankton biomass at any given location depends on the amount of sunlight available for photosynthesis and the nutrients. PAR indicates the amount of sunlight available... at the surface of the ocean and kd490 tells us how deep this light will penetrate which in turn determines the depth within which phytoplankton can effectively carry out photosynthesis. 1.3 Study region – Bay of Bengal The Bay of Bengal is a tropical basin...

  19. Universal Inverse Power law distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter - annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

    CERN Document Server

    Selvam, A M

    2010-01-01

    Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and therefore the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory which predicts the following (i) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (ii) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. The predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram...

  20. Inter-Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Mediterranean Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words ) The... Water (LSW) has the highest spiciness among the all water masses. We analyzed that transmission loss (TL) for each decade, and we found that there are...Levantine Surface Water (LSW) has the highest spiciness among the all water masses. We analyzed that transmission loss (TL) for each decade, and we

  1. Inter Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Yellow Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    incoherent transmission loss, essentially an averaged transmission loss across a band of frequencies. Incoherent should not be used for deterministic...loss in Shallow Water. Naval Research Laboratory. NRL Report 8500, 28pp. [Available online at http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/ u2 /a104738.pdf

  2. Changes in the temperature annual cycle in China and their implications for studying climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, C.; Fu, C.; Wu, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Climate changes in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle (seasonality) of surface air temperature (SAT) in China are presented. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is applied to adaptively extract the annual cycle (the yearly period component, which contributes 96% of the total variance of China mean SAT) from homogenized daily mean SAT. (1)Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China mean SAT for the period 1961-2007 are investigated. The results show that variation and change in the amplitude are significant, with a peak-to-peak annual amplitude variation of 13% (1.8degC) of its mean amplitude and a significant linear decrease in amplitude by 4.6% (0.63degC) for this period. Also identified is a multidecadal change in amplitude from significant decreasing (-1.7%/decade or -0.23degC/decade) to significant increasing (2.2%/decade or 0.29dedC/decade) occurring around 1993 that overlaps the systematic linear trend. This multidecadal change can be attributed mainly to the change in surface solar radiation, from dimming to brightening, rather than to warming or an enhanced greenhouse effect. We further propose that the combined effect of the global dimming/brightening transition and a gradual increase in greenhouse warming has led to a perceived warming trend that is much larger in winter than in summer and to a perceived accelerated warming in the annual mean since the early 1990s in China. We also note that the deseasonalization method (considering either the conventional repetitive climatological annual cycle or the time-varying annual cycle) can also affect trend estimation. (2)Trends in the spring phase of the annual cycle of SAT and their contributions to the earlier onset of climatic spring in northern China are investigated. Variations in the spring phase of the annual cycle could cause as much as a 20-day shift in the spring onset from one year to another at Beijing station. The change in the spring phase of annual cycle

  3. The influence of watershed characteristics on spatial patterns of trends in annual scale streamflow variability in the continental U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.

    2016-09-01

    As human activity and climate variability alter the movement of water through the environment the need to better understand hydrologic cycle responses to these changes has grown. A reasonable starting point for gaining such insight is studying changes in streamflow given the importance of streamflow as a source of renewable freshwater. Using a wavelet assisted method we analyzed trends in the magnitude of annual scale streamflow variability from 967 watersheds in the continental U.S. (CONUS) over a 70 year period (1940-2009). Decreased annual variability was the dominant pattern at the CONUS scale. Ecoregion scale results agreed with the CONUS pattern with the exception of two ecoregions closely divided between increases and decreases and one where increases dominated. A comparison of trends in reference and non-reference watersheds indicated that trend magnitudes in non-reference watersheds were significantly larger than those in reference watersheds. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to study the relationship between watershed characteristics and the magnitude of trends in streamflow. At the CONUS scale, the balance between precipitation and evaporative demand, and measures of geographic location were of high relative importance. Relationships between the magnitude of trends and watershed characteristics at the ecoregion scale exhibited differences from the CONUS results and substantial variability was observed among ecoregions. Additionally, the methodology used here has the potential to serve as a robust framework for top-down, data driven analyses of the relationships between changes in the hydrologic cycle and the spatial context within which those changes occur.

  4. 南通地区1960年-2007年气温与降水的年际和季节变化特征%Characteristics of Inter-Annual and Seasonal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over the Nantong Region during the Period 1960-2007

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王涛; 陶辉; 杨强

    2011-01-01

    Over the past half century, temperature rising has been observed in most parts of China, but temporal-spatial distribution of temperature change varies among different regions. In general, precipitation shows a greater regional difference than temperature, but the trend is not prominent. Examining trends in temperature and precipitation in Nantong located in the north wing of the Yangtze River delta would be greatly useful in predicting future climate change. There were 4 meteorological variables, i.e., average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and precipitation at the monthly scale obtained from seven meteorological stations across the study region for use in this analysis. Methods of linear trend, moving average methods, Mann-Kendall nonparametric, moving T-test, and wavelet analysis were employed to examine trend, mutation, and cycle changes in temperature and precipitation at inter-annual and seasonal scales across the Nantong Region during the period 1960 to 2007. Results show that 1) linear rates of annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, and annual average minimum temperature were 0.29℃/10a, 0.24℃/10a, and 0.54℃/10a, respectively. Years of mutation in annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, and annual average minimum temperature were detected to be 1997, 2001, and 1988, respectively; 2) Linear rates of average temperature in spring, autumn, and winter were 0.37℃/10a, 0.27℃/10a, and 0.43℃/ 10a, respectively. Average temperature in summer didn' t pass the test. Linear rates of average minimum temperature in autumn and winter were 0.85℃/10a and 0.54℃/10a, respectively, and the value in spring and summer didn' t pass the test. Linear rates of precipitation only passed the test in winter, showing a value of 13.84 mm/10a. Years of mutation in average temperature in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were in 2000, 2003, 1996-1997, and 1991, respectively

  5. Effect of variable annual precipitation and nutrient input on nitrogen and phosphorus transport from two Midwestern agricultural watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Hubbard, Laura E.; Tomer, Mark D.; James, D.E.

    2016-01-01

    Precipitation patterns and nutrient inputs affect transport of nitrate (NO3-N) and phosphorus (TP) from Midwest watersheds. Nutrient concentrations and yields from two subsurface-drained watersheds, the Little Cobb River (LCR) in southern Minnesota and the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) in northern Iowa, were evaluated during 1996–2007 to document relative differences in timings and amounts of nutrients transported. Both watersheds are located in the prairie pothole region, but the SFIR exhibits a longer growing season and more livestock production. The SFIR yielded significantly more NO3-N than the LCR watershed (31.2 versus 21.3 kg NO3-N ha− 1 y− 1). The SFIR watershed also yielded more TP than the LCR watershed (1.13 versus 0.51 kg TP ha− 1 yr− 1), despite greater TP concentrations in the LCR. About 65% of NO3-N and 50% of TP loads were transported during April–June, and < 20% of the annual loads were transported later in the growing season from July–September. Monthly NO3-N and TP loads peaked in April from the LCR but peaked in June from the SFIR; this difference was attributed to greater snowmelt runoff in the LCR. The annual NO3-N yield increased with increasing annual runoff at a similar rate in both watersheds, but the LCR watershed yielded less annual NO3-N than the SFIR for a similar annual runoff. These two watersheds are within 150 km of one another and have similar dominant agricultural systems, but differences in climate and cropping inputs affected amounts and timing of nutrient transport.

  6. Intra-annual cycles of NMVOC in the tropical marine boundary layer and their use for interpreting seasonal variability in CO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, K. A.; Lee, J. D.; Lewis, A. C.; Moller, S. J.; Mendes, L.; Carpenter, L. J.

    2009-11-01

    Carbon monoxide and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) have been measured for the first time on a continuous basis in the tropical marine boundary layer of the Atlantic Ocean. CO and ethane, which have similar lifetimes with respect to OH degradation, vary intra-annually with the sinusoidal variability expected due to a primary hydroxyl radical (OH) sink, but with CO showing a smaller cycle amplitude. The ethane measurements were used to derive the seasonal variation in the nominal OH concentration (n[OH]) experienced along the air mass trajectories arriving at Cape Verde. The n[OH] represents the variability in both the true OH concentration and any intra-annual changes in ethane emissions, and was subsequently used to simulate the seasonal cycle of CO, allowing identification of potentially differing sources and sinks from those of ethane. Deviation of the observed CO from the n[OH] fit indicated that summer sources of CO are approximately 60% (30-68%) higher than winter, assuming values of ±8% and ±49% seasonal variability, respectively, in fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions of CO and ethane, and including -29% uncertainty due to the losses of ethane through reaction with chlorine atoms. The evidence suggests that secondary production of CO from the oxidation of methane (CH4) and NMVOC and in particular from methanol, acetone and acetaldehyde may be dominant summer CO sources in this region.

  7. Comparison of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Annual Minimum Daily Extreme Flow Characteristics as a Function of Land Use and Dam Management Mode in Quebec, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Michel Sylvain; Ali Assani; Raphaëlle Landry; Jean-François Quessy; Christophe Kinnard

    2015-01-01

    This study presents a comparison of the spatio-temporal variability of characteristics (magnitude, duration and timing) of annual minimum daily extreme flows (AMEF) as a function of land use and the mode of management of dams. Streamflow measured at stations not affected by dams at Joliette, along the L’Assomption River (agricultural watershed, 1340 km2), and at Saint-Michel-des-Saints, on the Matawin River (forested watershed, 1390 km2) on one hand, and downstream from the Rawdon dam (regu...

  8. Phylogeny, genetic variability and colour polymorphism of an emerging animal model: the short-lived annual Nothobranchius fishes from southern Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorn, A; Ng'oma, E; Janko, K; Reichwald, K; Polačik, M; Platzer, M; Cellerino, A; Reichard, M

    2011-12-01

    Nothobranchius are a group of small, extremely short-lived killifishes living in temporary savannah pools in Eastern Africa and that survive annual desiccation of their habitat as dormant eggs encased in dry mud. One mitochondrial (COI) and three nuclear (CX32.2, GHITM, PNP) loci were used to investigate the phylogenetic relationship of Nothobranchius species from southern and central Mozambique. This group shows marked variation in captive lifespan at both the inter- and intraspecific levels; lifespan varies from a few months to over a year. As their distribution encompasses a steep gradient between semi-arid and humid habitats, resulting in contrasting selection pressures on evolution of lifespan and associated life history traits, Mozambican Nothobranchius spp. have recently become a model group in studies of ageing, age-related disorders and life history evolution. Consequently, intraspecific genetic variation and male colour morph distribution was also examined in the recovered clades. Using Bayesian species tree reconstruction and single loci analyses, three large clades were apparent and their phylogenetic substructure was revealed at the inter- and intra-specific levels within those clades. The Nothobranchius furzeri and Nothobranchius orthonotus clades were strongly geographically structured. Further, it was demonstrated that male colour has no phylogenetic signal in N. furzeri, where colour morphs are sympatric, but is associated with two reciprocally monophyletic groups in Nothobranchius rachovii clade, where colour morphs are parapatric. Finally, our analysis showed that a polymorphism in the Melanocortin1 receptor gene (which controls pigmentation in many vertebrates and was a candidate gene of male colouration in N. furzeri) is unrelated to colour phenotypes of the study species. Our results raise significant implications for future comparative studies of the species and populations analysed in the present work.

  9. Variability in the range of inter-anterior superior iliac spine distance and its correlation with femoral head centre. A prospective computed tomography study of 200 adults

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullaji, Arun [Breach Candy Hospital, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Mumbai (India); Arthritis Clinic, Mumbai (India); Shetty, Gautam M.; Kanna, Raj; Sharma, Amit [Breach Candy Hospital, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Mumbai (India)

    2010-04-15

    The anterior superior iliac spine (ASIS) is commonly used to estimate the centre of the femoral head and assess limb alignment during surgical procedures. This study aimed to determine the range of inter-anterior superior iliac spine distances (IADs) and inter-femoral head centre distances (IFDs) among individuals and ascertain whether there is correlation between the IFD and the IAD. We also sought to determine whether gender, height and body mass index (BMI) had any influence on IAD and IFD. We prospectively measured IAD and IFD in 200 adults, using transverse computed tomography (CT) scans done for medical causes. We also calculated the distance between the pelvic midline and the centre of the femoral head (XY distance) from the measured IFD. The influence of gender, height and body-mass index on IAD and IFD, and the correlation of IAD with IFD, were also studied. The overall mean IAD, IFD and XY distances were 22.7 {+-} 1.6 cm, 16.0 {+-} 0.8 cm and 8.0 {+-} 0.4 cm, respectively. There was wide variation within the IAD range with 50% (100/200) of the subjects having their IAD within {+-}10 mm of the mean compared to 75.5% (151/200) of the subjects with IFD within {+-}10 mm of the mean. The probability that the mean XY distance would fall within 10 mm of the true femoral head centre in all subjects was 100%. The gender difference in IAD and IFD was statistically significant (P = 0.03 and P < 0.001, respectively), height and BMI had no influence, and the correlation of IAD with IFD was weak (0.35). Although the range of IADs showed wide variation among subjects, this study clearly demonstrated the narrow range of the XY distance and IFD in the study population and provides a useful and accurate basis for a new method to determine the femoral head centre clinically and intraoperatively. (orig.)

  10. Impact of 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography on computed tomography defined target volumes in radiation treatment planning of esophageal cancer: reduction in geographic misses with equal inter-observer variability: PET/CT improves esophageal target definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreurs, L M A; Busz, D M; Paardekooper, G M R M; Beukema, J C; Jager, P L; Van der Jagt, E J; van Dam, G M; Groen, H; Plukker, J Th M; Langendijk, J A

    2010-08-01

    Target volume definition in modern radiotherapy is based on planning computed tomography (CT). So far, 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has not been included in planning modality in volume definition of esophageal cancer. This study evaluates fusion of FDG-PET and CT in patients with esophageal cancer in terms of geographic misses and inter-observer variability in volume definition. In 28 esophageal cancer patients, gross, clinical and planning tumor volumes (GTV; CTV; PTV) were defined on planning CT by three radiation oncologists. After software-based emission tomography and computed tomography (PET/CT) fusion, tumor delineations were redefined by the same radiation-oncologists. Concordance indexes (CCI's) for CT and PET/CT based GTV, CTV and PTV were calculated for each pair of observers. Incorporation of PET/CT modified tumor delineation in 17/28 subjects (61%) in cranial and/or caudal direction. Mean concordance indexes for CT-based CTV and PTV were 72 (55-86)% and 77 (61-88)%, respectively, vs. 72 (47-99)% and 76 (54-87)% for PET/CT-based CTV and PTV. Paired analyses showed no significant difference in CCI between CT and PET/CT. Combining FDG-PET and CT may improve target volume definition with less geographic misses, but without significant effects on inter-observer variability in esophageal cancer.

  11. Benefits of multi-modal fusion analysis on a large-scale dataset: life-span patterns of inter-subject variability in cortical morphometry and white matter microstructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Adrian R; Smith, Stephen M; Fjell, Anders M; Tamnes, Christian K; Walhovd, Kristine B; Douaud, Gwenaëlle; Woolrich, Mark W; Westlye, Lars T

    2012-10-15

    Neuroimaging studies have become increasingly multimodal in recent years, with researchers typically acquiring several different types of MRI data and processing them along separate pipelines that provide a set of complementary windows into each subject's brain. However, few attempts have been made to integrate the various modalities in the same analysis. Linked ICA is a robust data fusion model that takes multi-modal data and characterizes inter-subject variability in terms of a set of multi-modal components. This paper examines the types of components found when running Linked ICA on a large magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) morphometric and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data set comprising 484 healthy subjects ranging from 8 to 85 years of age. We find several strong global features related to age, sex, and intracranial volume; in particular, one component predicts age to a high accuracy (r=0.95). Most of the remaining components describe spatially localized modes of variability in white or gray matter, with many components including both tissue types. The multimodal components tend to be located in anatomically-related brain areas, suggesting a morphological and possibly functional relationship. The local components show relationships between surface-based cortical thickness and arealization, voxel-based morphometry (VBM), and between three different DTI measures. Further, we report components related to artifacts (e.g. scanner software upgrades) which would be expected in a dataset of this size. Most of the 100 extracted components showed interpretable spatial patterns and were found to be reliable using split-half validation. This work provides novel information about normal inter-subject variability in brain structure, and demonstrates the potential of Linked ICA as a feature-extracting data fusion approach across modalities. This exploratory approach automatically generates models to explain structure in the data, and may prove especially powerful for large

  12. Relationships Between Landscape Habitat Variables and Chinook Salmon Production in the Columbia River Basin, 1999 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, William L.; Lee, Danny C.

    1999-09-01

    This publication concerns the investigation of potential relationships between various landscape habitat variables and estimates of fish production from 25 index stocks of spring/summer chinook salmon with the Columbia River Basin.

  13. Spatial pattern and temporal variability of runoff processes in Mediterranean Mountain environments - a case study of the Central Spanish Pyrenees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Butzen, V.; Seeger, K.M.; Casper, M.C.

    2011-01-01

    Mediterranean mountain environments like the Central Spanish Pyrenees show a highly variable rainfall-runoff response, mainly explained by the intense intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation yield. This leads to a highly differentiated moisture status and therefore it is assumed to lead

  14. Trait-Based Community Assembly along an Elevational Gradient in Subalpine Forests: Quantifying the Roles of Environmental Factors in Inter- and Intraspecific Variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-Huang Luo

    Full Text Available Understanding how communities respond to environmental variation is a central goal in ecology. Plant communities respond to environmental gradients via intraspecific and/or interspecific variation in plant functional traits. However, the relative contribution of these two responses to environmental factors remains poorly tested. We measured six functional traits (height, leaf thickness, specific leaf area (SLA, leaf carbon concentration (LCC, leaf nitrogen concentration (LNC and leaf phosphorus concentration (LPC for 55 tree species occurring at five elevations across a 1200 m elevational gradient of subalpine forests in Yulong Mountain, Southwest China. We examined the relative contribution of interspecific and intraspecific traits variability based on community weighted mean trait values and functional diversity, and tested how different components of trait variation respond to different environmental axes (climate and soil variables. Species turnover explained the largest amount of variation in leaf morphological traits (leaf thickness and SLA across the elevational gradient. However, intraspecific variability explained a large amount of variation (49.3%-76.3% in three other traits (height, LNC and LPC despite high levels of species turnover. The detection of limiting similarity in community assembly was improved when accounting for both intraspecific and interspecific variability. Different components of trait variation respond to different environmental axes, especially soil water content and climatic variables. Our results indicate that intraspecific variation is critical for understanding community assembly and evaluating community response to environmental change.

  15. Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

    2016-04-01

    Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time

  16. Assessing variability in chemical acute toxicity of unionid mussels: Influence of intra- and inter-laboratory testing, life stage, and species

    Science.gov (United States)

    The authors developed a toxicity database for unionid mussels to examine the extent of intra- and interlaboratory variability in acute toxicity tests with mussel larvae (glochidia) and juveniles; the extent of differential sensitivity of the 2 life stages; and the variation in se...

  17. Annual dynamics of daylight variability and contrast a simulation-based approach to quantifying visual effects in architecture

    CERN Document Server

    Rockcastle, Siobhan

    2013-01-01

    Daylight is a dynamic source of illumination in architectural space, creating diverse and ephemeral configurations of light and shadow within the built environment. Perceptual qualities of daylight, such as contrast and temporal variability, are essential to our understanding of both material and visual effects in architecture. Although spatial contrast and light variability are fundamental to the visual experience of architecture, architects still rely primarily on intuition to evaluate their designs because there are few metrics that address these factors. Through an analysis of contemporary

  18. Seasonal variability of the meridional overturning circulation in the South China Sea and its connection with inter-ocean transport based on SODA2.2.4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yaohua; Fang, Guohong; Wei, Zexun; Wang, Yonggang; Teng, Fei; Qu, Tangdong

    2016-05-01

    We have proposed a five-layer-scheme to investigate the volume transport through the South China Sea (SCS) based on the updated Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA2.2.4) product. By demonstrating horizontal transport in each layer, we have revealed different formation mechanisms for the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in winter and summer in the SCS. Our analysis suggests three meridional circulation systems in the SCS: (1) the seasonal monsoon-driven circulation in the surface layer, i.e., southward circulation in winter and northward in summer, (2) the compensatory transport-induced seasonal intermediate MOC in the central SCS, and (3) the persistent deep MOC in the southern SCS all year round. By examining vertical velocity distribution, we have identified that the major overturning process of the intermediate MOC is located along the continental slope east and southeast of Vietnam, while the major overturning process of the deep MOC is located along the continental slope northwest of Borneo. The downwelling in the intermediate MOC in winter and upwelling in the deep MOC all year round bring different water masses to the intermediate and subintermediate layers to be mixed in the SCS. We found no evidence to suggest that the strength and extent of the MOC south of 18°N are related to inter-ocean volume transport. The surface layer transport in the Luzon Strait has been decreasing since the 1960s. However, the causes of the meridionally staggered and interdecadal alternating acceleration/slowdown of the meridional stream function difference are unknown.

  19. Tropical deforestation and climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voldoire, A.; Royer, J.F. [CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Meteo-France, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France)

    2004-07-01

    A new tropical deforestation experiment has been performed, with the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric global circulation model associated with the ISBA land surface scheme. Simulations are forced with observed monthly mean sea surface temperatures and thus inter-annual variability of the ocean system is taken into account. The local mean response to deforestation over Amazonia and Africa is relatively weak compared with most published studies and compensation effects are particularly important. However, a large increase in daily maximum temperatures is obtained during the dry season when soil water stress dominates. The analysis of daily variability shows that the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperatures are noticeably modified with an increase in extreme temperatures. Daily precipitation amounts also indicate a weakening of the convective activity. Conditions for the onset of convection are less frequently gathered, particularly over southern Amazonia and western equatorial Africa. At the same time, the intensity of convective events is reduced, especially over equatorial deforested regions. The inter-annual variability is also enhanced. For instance, El Nino events generally induce a large drying over northern Amazonia, which is well reproduced in the control simulation. In the deforested experiment, a positive feedback effect leads to a strong intensification of this drying and a subsequent increase in surface temperature. The change in variability as a response to deforestation can be more crucial than the change of the mean climate since more intense extremes could be more detrimental for agriculture than an increase in mean temperatures. (orig.)

  20. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  1. Importance and inter-relationship of tissue Doppler variables for predicting adverse outcomes in high-risk patients: an analysis of 388 diabetic patients referred for coronary angiography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Møgelvang, Rasmus;

    2012-01-01

    AIMS: To investigate the relative importance of individual tissue Doppler imaging variables to predict adverse events in a high-risk population with diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, and/or systolic dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Transthoracic echocardiograms were analysed in 388 diabetic...... patients without significant valve disease, bundle branch block, and atrial fibrillation who underwent coronary angiography. Multivariable Cox's regression analyses were used to establish the association between peak systolic (s'), early diastolic (e'), and late diastolic (a') tissue velocities...... and outcomes (hospitalization for heart failure or death). The mean age and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 66 ± 10 years and 45 ± 12%, respectively. During 2.3 (±1.0) years of follow-up, 91 patients (24%) met the combined endpoint. After adjustment for LVEF, coronary artery pathology, heart...

  2. Existence and inter-decadal changes of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave during the last 142 years and its relationship to large scale modes of variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrone, Dario; Fusco, Giannetta; Cotroneo, Yuri; Simmonds, Ian; Budillon, Giorgio

    2016-04-01

    The Southern Ocean is the region of the world ocean bordering on Antarctica over which important exchanges between the atmosphere, the ocean and the sea ice take place. Here, the strong and nearly unhindered eastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) plays an important control on mean global climate as it transmits climate anomalies around the globe. Features of interannual variability have been often observed to propagate eastward around the Southern Ocean with the circumpolar flow in form of a system of coupled anomalies, known as the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). In the present study, using a 142-year series of a composite dataset (850hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, surface meridional wind, surface air temperature) spanning from 1871-2012, the presence of ACWs was investigated. Results show the presence of the ACW before the mid-1950s and interdecadal changes in its variability. Modifications in strength and speed of circumpolar wave have also been observed in connection with large-scale climate changes. CEOF analyses on the same period confirmed that the ACW becomes apparent when there is a constructive combination between the Pacific-South America pattern and the subantarctic zonal wavenumber-3 (ZW3). The analyses also quantify the role played by El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections for the appearance of the ACW. The composite dataset and various climate indices have been also used to diagnose interactions among the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), ENSO and ZW3 circulation patterns on interannual and sub-decadal scales. Results show that SAM and ENSO patterns interact with each other modulating ACW anomalies in the western and central south Pacific Ocean on interannual scale.

  3. Analysing inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries: WatSan4Dev database coherency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Dondeynaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The "Integrated Water Resources Management" principle was formally laid down at the International Conference on Water and Sustainable development in Dublin 1992. One of the main results of this conference is that improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS, being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation. These sectors influence or are influenced by the access to WSS. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC has developed a new database (WatSan4Dev database containing 45 indicators (called variables in this paper from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data in developing countries.

    This paper describes the development of the WatSan4Dev dataset, the statistical processes needed to improve the data quality; and, finally, the analysis to verify the database coherence is presented.

    At the light of the first analysis, WatSan4Dev Dataset shows the coherency among the different variables that are confirmed by the direct field experience and/or the scientific literature in the domain. Preliminary analysis of the relationships indicates that the informal urbanisation development is an important factor influencing negatively the percentage of the population having access to WSS. Health, and in particular children health, benefits from the improvement of WSS. Efficient environmental governance is also an important factor for providing improved water supply services.

    The database would be at the base of posterior analyses to better understand the interrelationships between the different indicators associated in the water sector in developing countries. A data model using the different indicators will be realised

  4. Analysing inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries: WatSan4Dev database coherency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondeynaz, C.; Carmona Moreno, C.; Céspedes Lorente, J. J.

    2012-01-01

    The "Integrated Water Resources Management" principle was formally laid down at the International Conference on Water and Sustainable development in Dublin 1992. One of the main results of this conference is that improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). These sectors influence or are influenced by the access to WSS. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed a new database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 45 indicators (called variables in this paper) from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data in developing countries. This paper describes the development of the WatSan4Dev dataset, the statistical processes needed to improve the data quality; and, finally, the analysis to verify the database coherence is presented. At the light of the first analysis, WatSan4Dev Dataset shows the coherency among the different variables that are confirmed by the direct field experience and/or the scientific literature in the domain. Preliminary analysis of the relationships indicates that the informal urbanisation development is an important factor influencing negatively the percentage of the population having access to WSS. Health, and in particular children health, benefits from the improvement of WSS. Efficient environmental governance is also an important factor for providing improved water supply services. The database would be at the base of posterior analyses to better understand the interrelationships between the different indicators associated in the water sector in developing countries. A data model using the different indicators will be realised on the next phase of this research work.

  5. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  6. Comparison of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Annual Minimum Daily Extreme Flow Characteristics as a Function of Land Use and Dam Management Mode in Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Michel Sylvain

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a comparison of the spatio-temporal variability of characteristics (magnitude, duration and timing of annual minimum daily extreme flows (AMEF as a function of land use and the mode of management of dams. Streamflow measured at stations not affected by dams at Joliette, along the L’Assomption River (agricultural watershed, 1340 km2, and at Saint-Michel-des-Saints, on the Matawin River (forested watershed, 1390 km2 on one hand, and downstream from the Rawdon dam (regulated natural-type management mode, on the Ouareau River (1260 km2, which is the main tributary of the L’Assomption River, and from the Matawin dam (inverted-type management mode, on the Matawin River (4070 km2, on the other hand, were compared over the period from 1930 to 2010. As far as the spatial variability of natural rivers is concerned, the magnitude and duration of AMEF are higher in the forested watershed than in the agricultural watershed. In regulated rivers, AMEF magnitude is higher downstream from the dam characterized by a natural-type management mode than downstream from the dam characterized by inversion-type management. However, downstream from the latter, AMEF occur much more frequently and very early in the year. As for temporal variability, the Lombard method did not reveal any influence of land use differences on the stationarity of series of AMEF characteristics. In contrast, differences in dam management mode result in occurrences of AMEF downstream from the inversion-type dam progressively earlier in the year. The duration and timing of AMEF are not correlated with the same climate variables, be it in natural rivers or downstream from dams.

  7. Modelling deposition and air concentration of reduced nitrogen in Poland and sensitivity to variability in annual meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryza, Maciej; Dore, Anthony J; Błaś, Marek; Sobik, Mieczysław

    2011-04-01

    The relative contribution of reduced nitrogen to acid and eutrophic deposition in Europe has increased recently as a result of European policies which have been successful in reducing SO(2) and NO(x) emissions but have had smaller impacts on ammonia (NH(3)) emissions. In this paper the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model was used to calculate the spatial patterns of annual average ammonia and ammonium (NH(4)(+)) air concentrations and reduced nitrogen (NH(x)) dry and wet deposition with a 5 km × 5 km grid for years 2002-2005. The modelled air concentrations of NH(3) and dry deposition of NH(x) show similar spatial patterns for all years considered. The largest year to year changes were found for wet deposition, which vary considerably with precipitation amount. The FRAME modelled air concentrations and wet deposition are in reasonable agreement with available measurements (Pearson's correlation coefficients above 0.6 for years 2002-2005), and with spatial patterns of concentrations and deposition of NH(x) reported with the EMEP results, but show larger spatial gradients. The error statistics show that the FRAME model results are in better agreement with measurements if compared with EMEP estimates. The differences in deposition budgets calculated with FRAME and EMEP do not exceed 17% for wet and 6% for dry deposition, with FRAME estimates higher than for EMEP wet deposition for modelled period and lower or equal for dry deposition. The FRAME estimates of wet deposition budget are lower than the measurement-based values reported by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection of Poland, with the differences by approximately 3%. Up to 93% of dry and 53% of wet deposition of NH(x) in Poland originates from national sources. Over the western part of Poland and mountainous areas in the south, transboundary transport can contribute over 80% of total (dry + wet) NH(x) deposition. The spatial pattern of the relative contribution of

  8. Sensitivity of soil respiration to variability in soil moisture and temperature in a humid tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tana Wood; M. Detto; W.L. Silver

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation and temperature are important drivers of soil respiration. The role of moisture and temperature are generally explored at seasonal or inter-annual timescales; however, significant variability also occurs on hourly to daily time-scales. We used small (1.54 m2), throughfall exclusion shelters to evaluate the role soil moisture and temperature as temporal...

  9. Catch, effort and sampling strategies in the highly variable sardine fisheries around East Java, Indonesia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pet, J.S.; Densen, van W.L.T.; Machiels, M.A.M.; Sukkel, M.; Setyohady, D.; Tumuljadi, A.

    1997-01-01

    Temporal and spatial patterns in the fishery for Sardinella spp. around East Java, Indonesia, were studied in an attempt to develop an efficient catch and effort sampling strategy for this highly variable fishery. The inter-annual and monthly variation in catch, effort and catch per unit of effort (

  10. Catch, effort and sampling strategies in the highly variable sardine fisheries around East Java, Indonesia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pet, J.S.; Densen, van W.L.T.; Machiels, M.A.M.; Sukkel, M.; Setyohady, D.; Tumuljadi, A.

    1997-01-01

    Temporal and spatial patterns in the fishery for Sardinella spp. around East Java, Indonesia, were studied in an attempt to develop an efficient catch and effort sampling strategy for this highly variable fishery. The inter-annual and monthly variation in catch, effort and catch per unit of effort

  11. Environmental and Physiographic Controls on Inter-Growing Season Variability of Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour Fluxes in a Minerotrophic Fen

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Kamp, G.; Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Barr, A.; Hedstrom, N.; Granger, R.

    2008-12-01

    The interaction of fens with groundwater is spatially and temporally highly variable in response to meteorological conditions, resulting in frequent changes of groundwater fluxes in both vertical and lateral directions (flow reversals) across the mineral soil-peat boundary. However, despite the importance of the topographic and hydrogeological setting of fens, no study has been reported in the literature that explores a fen's atmospheric CO2 and energy flux densities under contrasting meteorological conditions in response to its physiographic setting. In our contribution we report four years of growing season eddy covariance and supporting measurements from the Canada Fluxnet-BERMS fen (formerly BOREAS southern peatland) in Saskatchewan, Canada. We first analyze hydrological data along two piezometer transects across the mineral soil-peat boundary with the objective of assessing changes in water table configuration and thus hydraulic gradients, indicating flow reversals, in response to dry and wet meteorological conditions. Next we quantify and compare growing season totals and diurnal and daily variations in evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its component fluxes gross ecosystem productivity (GPP) and terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) to identify their controls with a major focus on water table depth. While ET growing season totals were similar (~ 310 mm) under dry and wet meteorological conditions, the CO2 sink- source strength of Sandhill fen varied substantially from carbon neutral (NEE = -2 [+-7] g C m-2 per growing season) under dry meteorological condition (2003) to a moderate CO2- sink with NEE ranging between 157 [+- 10] and 190 [+- 11] g C m-2 per growing season under wet meteorological conditions (2004, 2005, and 2006). Using a process-oriented ecosystem model, BEPS-TerrainLab, we investigate how different canopy components at Sandhill contribute to total ET and GPP, and thus water use efficiency, under dry and wet

  12. A framework for assessing inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetics using virtual human populations and integrating general knowledge of physical chemistry, biology, anatomy, physiology and genetics: A tale of 'bottom-up' vs 'top-down' recognition of covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamei, Masoud; Dickinson, Gemma L; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

    2009-01-01

    An increasing number of failures in clinical stages of drug development have been related to the effects of candidate drugs in a sub-group of patients rather than the 'average' person. Expectation of extreme effects or lack of therapeutic effects in some subgroups following administration of similar doses requires a full understanding of the issue of variability and the importance of identifying covariates that determine the exposure to the drug candidates in each individual. In any drug development program the earlier these covariates are known the better. An important component of the drive to decrease this failure rate in drug development involves attempts to use physiologically-based pharmacokinetics 'bottom-up' modeling and simulation to optimize molecular features with respect to the absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination (ADME) processes. The key element of this approach is the separation of information on the system (i.e. human body) from that of the drug (e.g. physicochemical characteristics determining permeability through membranes, partitioning to tissues, binding to plasma proteins or affinities toward certain enzymes and transporter proteins) and the study design (e.g. dose, route and frequency of administration, concomitant drugs and food). In this review, the classical 'top-down' approach in covariate recognition is compared with the 'bottom-up' paradigm. The determinants and sources of inter-individual variability in different stages of drug absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion are discussed in detail. Further, the commonly known tools for simulating ADME properties are introduced.

  13. InterContinental Cuisine for Charity 2011

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Cuisine for Charity is one of the most important annual events for InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) hotels in Beijing. It is a good opportunity not only for chefs to showcase them-selves, learn from each other and improve their cooking skills, but also to show that we take care of our social responsibilities.

  14. The influence of riparian woodland on the spatial and temporal variability of stream water temperatures in an upland salmon stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Malcolm

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The spatio-temporal variability of stream water temperatures was investigated at six locations on the Girnock Burn (30km2 catchment, Cairngorms, Scotland over three hydrological years between 1998 and 2002. The key site-specific factors affecting the hydrology and climatology of the sampling points were investigated as a basis for physical process inference. Particular emphasis was placed on assessing the effects of riparian forest in the lower catchment versus the heather moorland riparian zones that are spatially dominant in the upper catchment. The findings were related to river heat budget studies that provided process detail. Gross changes in stream temperature were affected by the annual cycle of incoming solar radiation and seasonal changes in hydrological and climatological conditions. Inter-annual variation in these controlling variables resulted in inter-annual variability in thermal regime. However, more subtle inter-site differences reflected the impact of site-specific characteristics on various components of the river energy budget. Inter-site variability was most apparent at shorter time scales, during the summer months and for higher stream temperatures. Riparian woodland in the lower catchment had a substantial impact on thermal regime, reducing diel variability (over a period of 24 hours and temperature extremes. Observed inter-site differences are likely to have a substantial effect on freshwater ecology in general and salmonid fish in particular. Keywords: temperature, thermal regime, forest, salmon, hydrology, Girnock Burn, Cairngorm