WorldWideScience

Sample records for integrity risk over-bounding

  1. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  2. Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

  3. Integrated supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

    2007-01-01

    Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

  4. Integrating risks at contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.; Habegger, L.; Nieves, L.; Schreiber, Z.; Travis, C.

    2000-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for a number of large sites across the country that were radioactively and chemically contaminated by past nuclear research, development, and production activities. Multiple risk assessments are being conducted for these sites to evaluate current conditions and determine what measures are needed to protect human health and the environment from today through the long term. Integrating the risks associated with multiple contaminants in different environmental media across extensive areas, over time periods that extend beyond 1,000 years, and for a number of different impact categories--from human health and ecological to social and economic--represents a considerable challenge. A central element of these integrated analyses is the ability to reflect key interrelationships among environmental resources and human communities that may be adversely affected by the actions or inactions being considered for a given site. Complicating the already difficult task of integrating many kinds of risk is the importance of reflecting the diverse values and preferences brought to bear by the multiple parties interested in the risk analysis process and outcome. An initial conceptual framework has been developed to provide an organized structure to this risk integration, with the aim of supporting effective environmental management decisions. This paper highlights key issues associated with comprehensive risk integration and offers suggestions developed from preliminary work at a complex DOE site

  5. Integrated supply chain risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaan Bredell

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.

  6. Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for the exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as the instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role...

  7. Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....

  8. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  9. Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria POPESCU

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

  10. The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IIRC (2013b: 3), integrated thinking takes into account the connectivity and ... historical information and provides investors and other stakeholders with .... in the disclosure of risks and opportunities by using a sample of the top 100 JSE-.

  11. The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... between strategy and the risks and opportunities faced by the organisation. For this purpose, a web-based research questionnaire was sent to high-level implementers of integrated reporting at companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, where integrated reporting is a listing requirement.

  12. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  13. Economic Exposure and Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Kent D.

    1994-01-01

    Most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures. By contrast, this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance and strategy researchers. The paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management, some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposrues, and direc...

  14. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  15. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  16. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  18. RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

    2012-01-01

    Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...

  19. Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Grau-Moya

    Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

  20. Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...

  1. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  2. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  3. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  4. Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonkinson, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

  5. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  6. Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

  7. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  9. Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

    2001-01-01

    The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically

  10. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  11. Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusdhianto Setiawan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.

  12. Supply chain integration, risk management and manufacturing flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaudhuri, Atanu; Boer, Harry; Taran, Yariv

    2018-01-01

    , respectively, and manufacturing flexibility. Design/methodology/approach – Using hierarchical regression, data are analyzed from a sample of 343 manufacturing plants in Asia collected in 2013-2014 as part of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS VI). Findings – Internal integration and supply......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal integration, external integration and supply chain risk management on manufacturing flexibility, and the moderating effect of supply chain risk management on the relationships between internal and external integration...... chain risk management have a direct effect on manufacturing flexibility. Supply chain risk management moderates the relationship between external integration and flexibility. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to generalize beyond the flexibility performance of discrete...

  13. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  14. TWRS safety and technical integration risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fordham, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    The objectives of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Safety and Technical Integration (STI) programmatic risk management program are to assess, analyze, and handle risks associated with TWRS STI responsibilities and to communicate information about the actions being taken and the results to enable decision making. The objective of this TWRS STI Risk Management Plan is to communicate a consistent approach to risk management that will be used by the organization

  15. Forests at risk: integrating risk science into fuel management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan. Thompson

    2008-01-01

    The threat from wildland fire continues to grow across many regions of the Western United States. Drought, urbanization, and a buildup of fuels over the last century have contributed to increasing wildfire risk to property and highly valued natural resources. Fuel treatments, including thinning overly dense forests to reduce fuel and lower fire risk, have become a...

  16. Integrating and Prioritizing Environmental Risks in China's Risk Management Discourse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, L.; Zhong, L.

    2010-01-01

    Human society faces a growing number of risks, including both natural disasters and risks that stem from human behavior. This is particularly true in China, which is experiencing rapid social, economic and political transitions. Since the 1970s, China's modernization process has been accompanied by

  17. Risk management integration into complex project organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.

  18. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  19. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  20. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  1. Integrating risk management into the baselining process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennett, N.; Tonkinson, A.

    1994-01-01

    These processes work together in building the project (comprised of the technical, schedule, and cost baselines) against which performance is measured and changes to the scope, schedule and cost of a project are managed and controlled. Risk analysis is often performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes, a precursor to establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, best business practices dictate that information that may be crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable. The purpose or risk management is not to eliminate risk. Neither is it intended to suggest wholesale re-estimating and re-scheduling of a project. Rather, the intent is to make provisions to reduce and control the schedule and/or cost ramifications of risk by anticipating events and conditions that cannot be reliably planned for and which have the potential to negatively impact accomplishment of the technical objectives and requirements of the project

  2. Integrating Risk Management and Strategic Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achampong, Francis K.

    2010-01-01

    Strategic planning is critical to ensuring that institutions of higher education thoughtfully and systematically position themselves to accomplish their mission, vision, and strategic goals, particularly when these institutions face a myriad of risks that can negatively impact their continued financial viability and compromise their ability to…

  3. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  4. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  5. Nuclear safety culture and integrated risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joksimovich, V.; Orvis, D.D.

    1993-01-01

    A primary focus of nuclear safety is the prevention of large releases of radioactivity in the case of low-probability severe accidents. An analysis of the anatomy of nuclear (Chernobyl, Three Mile Island Unit 2) and nonnuclear (Challenger, Bhopal, Piper Alpha, etc.) severe accidents yields four broad categories of root causes: human (operating crew response), machine (design with its basic flaws), media (natural phenomena, operational considerations, political environment, commercial pressures, etc.)-providing triggering events, and management (basic organizational safety culture flaws). A strong management can minimize the contributions of humans, machines, and media to the risk arising from the operation of hazardous facilities. One way that management can have a powerful positive influence is through the establishment of a proper safety culture. The term safety culture is used as defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency's International Safety Advisory Group

  6. Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

    2006-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

  7. Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

    1996-01-01

    The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

  8. Managing Key Risks in Post-Merger IS Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alaranta, Mar; Mathiassen, L

    2014-01-01

    Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...

  9. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  10. Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

    2015-12-01

    This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

  11. Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    W. A. Owca

    2007-01-01

    This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP)

  12. Diagnosis and proposal for an integrated risk management en el Valle de Aburra: red risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aristizabal, Edier; Vargas, Richard

    2008-01-01

    From the analysis of the organizational situation of different institutions of the Aburra Valley oriented to reduce disasters and emergencies of natural and anthropological origin, a system for the prevention, relief and recovery, Area metropolitana del Valle de Aburra, environmental authority and planning institution, has made to the region a pro pose which try to integrate all governmental and private organizations through an integral risk management, denominated: The Regional Risk Management Network in the Aburra Valley, Risk Network. Risk Network is an open organizational system of inter institutional character to direct and co-ordinate policies and actions of analysis and risk reduction, as well as the preparation and execution of the response and recovery of disaster and emergencies. in the Aburra Valley. Two are the strategic instruments of the Network: The Risk Management Regional Plan in the Aburra Valley, and the Integrated Information System which was designed to support the different management processes of the Network.

  13. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  14. The background and theory of integrated risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunsucker, John L.

    1995-01-01

    While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.

  15. A Look at the Practice of Risk Classification: Integrative Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Alves Morais Filho

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the increase in the number of patients in emergency services / emergency brought the need for screening / risk classification as a way to organize the urgency and emergency care in the health institutions. Objectives: know how to develop the risk classification practice in the Brazilian reality using the scientific production, the insertion of nurses in risk classification using the Brazilian scientific production. Methods: an integrative review was carried out, the data occurred during September 2015 in the following databases: Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline, and the Latin American and Caribbean System of Information on Health Sciences (LILACS "GOOGLE SCHOLAR." Results: it found 9,874 articles and selected 33 for analysis. The results were organized in 04 categories: Risk classification as assistance qualifier; risk classification’s organization; operation weaknesses of the risk classification and nurse's role in risk classification. Conclusion: We conclude that the risk classification qualifies the assistance in emergency services; there are many difficulties for the risk classification’s operation and the nurse has been established as a professional with technical and legal competence to perform the risk classification.

  16. Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    27 mars 2008 ... Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in support of Community Based Adaptation. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. However, increased variability ...

  17. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Xiaomei; Zee, van der Sjoerd E.A.T.M.; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G.; Ritsema, Coen J.; Geissen, Violette

    2016-01-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide

  18. Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Taiji

    2014-01-01

    Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)

  19. Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice.......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution...

  20. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  1. University Lawyers: A Study of Legal Risk, Risk Management and Role in Work Integrated Learning Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Craig; Klopper, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Work integrated learning (WIL) is in growing demand by multiple stakeholders within the higher education sector in Australia. There are significant and distinct legal risks to universities associated with WIL programmes. University lawyers, along with WIL administrators and university management, are responsible for managing legal risk. This…

  2. Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    2009-01-01

    Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

  3. Optimising an integrated crop-livestock farm using risk programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SE Visagie

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have analysed farm planning decisions focusing on producer risk preferences. Few studies have focussed on the farm planning decisions in an integrated croplivestock farm context. Income variability and means of managing risk continues to receive much attention in farm planning research. Different risk programming models have attempted to focus on minimising the income variability of farm activities. This study attempts to identify the optimal mix of crops and the number of animals the farm needs to keep in the presence of crop production risk for a range of risk levels. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to model the decision environment faced by an integrated crop-livestock farmer. The deviation of income from the expected value was used as a measure of risk. A case study is presented with representative data from a farm in the Swartland area. An investigation of the results of the model under different constraints shows that, in general, strategies that depend on crop rotation principles are preferred to strategies that follow mono-crop production practices.

  4. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  5. European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

    2002-01-01

    Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk

  6. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  7. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-26

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  8. Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOBER, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to

  9. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

    Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

  11. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  12. Depression and suicide risk among nursing professionals: an integrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darlan dos Santos Damásio Silva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Discussing the factors associated with major depression and suicide risk among nursing professionals. METHOD An integrative review in PubMed/MEDLINE, LILACS, SciELO and BDENF databases, between 2003 and 2015. RESULTS 20 published articles were selected, mostly from between 2012 and 2014, with significant production in Brazil. Nursing professionals are vulnerable to depression when young, married, performing night work and having several jobs, and when they have a high level of education, low family income, work overload, high stress, insufficient autonomy and a sense of professional insecurity and conflict in the family and workrelationship. Suicide risk was correlated with the presence of symptoms of depression, high levels of emotional exhaustion, depersonalization and low personal accomplishment; characteristics of Burnout Syndrome. CONCLUSION Suicide risk among nursing professionals is associated with symptoms of depression and correlated with Burnout Syndrome, which can affect work performance.

  13. Integrating physical and financial approaches to manage environmental financial risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, Gregory; Meyer, Eliot; Foster, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Physical and/or engineered solutions have long been used to manage risks associated with adverse environmental events. Examples include reservoirs as a tool for mitigating drought-related supply risk, levees for managing flood risk and dredging of inland waterways to ensure navigability during low flow periods. These measures can reduce many types of risk (e.g., loss of life), but are often employed as a means of protecting against financial losses. When the focus is on managing environmental financial risk, physical solutions can be effective, but also costly. In many cases, non-physical tools can provide a less expensive means of managing financial risk, with these often taking the form of financial instruments such as hedging contracts, contingency funds or insurance. Some of these instruments, such as flood insurance, are widely available, but historically many environmental financial risks have been managed primarily (or solely) via physical solutions without much consideration of alternatives, thereby opening opportunities for innovation in developing financial solutions. Recent research has demonstrated that financial instruments can play a significant role in managing drought-related financial risk in sectors as diverse as water utilities, energy generation and inland navigation. Nonetheless, this work has largely considered the use of these instruments within systems in which physical solutions are already in place (but failing to achieve desired performance). The next step in the evolution of managing environmental financial risk involves developing methods for designing risk management strategies that do not assume an established physical system. Here the goal is to identify the relative role that physical solutions and financial instruments should play as they are integrated into a comprehensive risk management strategy. This is not a straightforward challenge as one approach reduces the risk of financial losses and the other redistributes those losses

  14. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

  15. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garcin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

    The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

    This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation

  16. Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

    1980-01-01

    A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices

  17. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  18. Atypical audiovisual speech integration in infants at risk for autism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne A Guiraud

    Full Text Available The language difficulties often seen in individuals with autism might stem from an inability to integrate audiovisual information, a skill important for language development. We investigated whether 9-month-old siblings of older children with autism, who are at an increased risk of developing autism, are able to integrate audiovisual speech cues. We used an eye-tracker to record where infants looked when shown a screen displaying two faces of the same model, where one face is articulating/ba/and the other/ga/, with one face congruent with the syllable sound being presented simultaneously, the other face incongruent. This method was successful in showing that infants at low risk can integrate audiovisual speech: they looked for the same amount of time at the mouths in both the fusible visual/ga/- audio/ba/and the congruent visual/ba/- audio/ba/displays, indicating that the auditory and visual streams fuse into a McGurk-type of syllabic percept in the incongruent condition. It also showed that low-risk infants could perceive a mismatch between auditory and visual cues: they looked longer at the mouth in the mismatched, non-fusible visual/ba/- audio/ga/display compared with the congruent visual/ga/- audio/ga/display, demonstrating that they perceive an uncommon, and therefore interesting, speech-like percept when looking at the incongruent mouth (repeated ANOVA: displays x fusion/mismatch conditions interaction: F(1,16 = 17.153, p = 0.001. The looking behaviour of high-risk infants did not differ according to the type of display, suggesting difficulties in matching auditory and visual information (repeated ANOVA, displays x conditions interaction: F(1,25 = 0.09, p = 0.767, in contrast to low-risk infants (repeated ANOVA: displays x conditions x low/high-risk groups interaction: F(1,41 = 4.466, p = 0.041. In some cases this reduced ability might lead to the poor communication skills characteristic of autism.

  19. The Strategic and Legal Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: An Enterprise Risk Management Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Craig

    2017-01-01

    Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business for universities. WIL is a strategic risk worthy of pursuing by universities in the prevailing higher education environment, which is characterized by competition, changes in funding arrangements and stakeholder demand for WIL. Nevertheless the strategic opportunities that WIL presents cannot be…

  20. Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

    2010-09-01

    Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public

  1. Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

    2016-05-01

    In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.

  2. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  3. Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

    2012-11-01

    Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

  4. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  6. Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun; Lee, Sang hoon

    2016-01-01

    As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed

  7. Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang hoon [Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed.

  8. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  9. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabela M. M. Lima

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients.Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression.Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt.Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  10. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Isabela M M; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F; de Miranda, Débora M; Da Silva, Antônio G; Neves, Fernando S; Johnson, Sheri L

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients. Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression. Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt. Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  11. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  12. [Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

    integration. We also calculate the welfare costs of imperfect capital market integration and risk sharing and find that these costs vary a lot over time. Finally, we show that consumption risk sharing is higher during times of crises, i.e. at times when marginal utility is high and risk sharing is most......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...... capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust is to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatilities. Hence, financial integration seems to drive consumption risk sharing whereas we find no evidence that risk sharing forecasts market...

  14. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...

  15. Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeit, Peter; Kaptoge, S; Welsh, P.

    2016-01-01

    samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes......BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present...... by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored...

  16. Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutleber, D.S.; Heiberger, E.M.; Morris, T.D.

    1995-01-01

    Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures

  17. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  18. Dietary fats, cerebrovasculature integrity and Alzheimer's disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takechi, R; Galloway, S; Pallebage-Gamarallage, M M S; Lam, V; Mamo, J C L

    2010-04-01

    An emerging body of evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that dietary fats influence Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk, but less clear is the mechanisms by which this occurs. Alzheimer's is an inflammatory disorder, many consider in response to fibrillar formation and extracellular deposition of amyloid-beta (Abeta). Alternatively, amyloidosis could notionally be a secondary phenomenon to inflammation, because some studies suggest that cerebrovascular disturbances precede amyloid plaque formation. Hence, dietary fats may influence AD risk by either modulating Abeta metabolism, or via Abeta independent pathways. This review explores these two possibilities taking into consideration; (i) the substantial affinity of Abeta for lipids and its ordinary metabolism as an apolipoprotein; (ii) evidence that Abeta has potent vasoactive properties and (iii) studies which show that dietary fats modulate Abeta biogenesis and secretion. We discuss accumulating evidence that dietary fats significantly influence cerebrovascular integrity and as a consequence altered Abeta kinetics across the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Specifically, chronic ingestion of saturated fats or cholesterol appears to results in BBB dysfunction and exaggerated delivery from blood-to-brain of peripheral Abeta associated with lipoproteins of intestinal and hepatic origin. Interestingly, the pattern of saturated fat/cholesterol induced cerebrovascular disturbances in otherwise normal wild-type animal strains is analogous to established models of AD genetically modified to overproduce Abeta, consistent with a causal association. Saturated fats and cholesterol may exacerbate Abeta induced cerebrovascular disturbances by enhancing exposure of vessels of circulating Abeta. However, presently there is no evidence to support this contention. Rather, SFA and cholesterol appear to more broadly compromise BBB integrity with the consequence of plasma protein leakage into brain, including lipoprotein associated Abeta

  19. The Role of Standardization in Improving the Effectiveness of Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ciocoiu, Carmen Nadia; Dobrea, Razvan Catalin

    2010-01-01

    The need of standardization in risk management is justified by the efforts to develop and introduce, during the last few years, integrated risk management frameworks inside the organizations. The financial crisis has underscored the fact that significant improvements in risk management organizations and capabilities are required. The business community and also the experts recognize that the risk management standards have an important role in improving the effectiveness of integrated risk man...

  20. Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

  1. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  2. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  3. Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

    2015-01-01

    Prioritization of investments to protect safety and performance of multi-regional transportation networks from adjacent land development is a key concern for infrastructure agencies, land developers, and other stakeholders. Despite ample literature describing relationships between transportation and land use, no evidence-based methods exist for monitoring corridor needs on a large scale. Risk analysis is essential to the preservation of system safety and capacity, including avoidance of costly retrofits, regret, and belated action. This paper introduces the Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) for prioritizing corridor segments that are vulnerable to adjacent land development. The method integrates several components: (i) estimation of likelihood of adjacent land development, using influence diagram and rule-based modeling, (ii) characterization of access point density using geospatial methods, and (iii) plural-model evaluation of corridors, monitoring indices of land development likelihood, access point densities, and traffic volumes. The results inform deployment of options that include closing access points, restricting development, and negotiation of agencies and developers. The CTA method is demonstrated on a region encompassing 6000 centerline miles (about 10,000 km) of transportation corridors. The method will be of interest to managers investing in safety and performance of infrastructure systems, balancing safety, financial, and other criteria of concern for diverse stakeholders. - Highlights: • The Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) method for prioritizing transportation corridors. • The CTA method studies corridors vulnerable to adjacent land development. • The CTA method quantifies the influence of risk scenarios on agency priorities. • The CTA method is demonstrated on 6000 miles of critical transportation corridor

  4. Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lyn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; Kerstman, Eric; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list

  5. Risk Management: An Integral Part of Operational Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Latrash, Frederick

    1999-01-01

    ...) and Joint Task Force (JTF) Commander to achieve military objectives. Risk Management (RM) is a five step process that identifies hazards, assesses risks and implements controls to reduce risks to an acceptable level...

  6. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaomei; Van Der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

    2016-05-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pásztor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

  8. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der, H.; Braak, ter, C.J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5?200?nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrate...

  10. Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

    2016-01-01

    capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...

  11. Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Ihor; Voloshyn, Mykyta

    2013-01-01

    In this article, on the basis of the "cash flow at risk" approach, the system of the integrated (credit, market, operational and liquidity risks) risk management in a market-maker commercial bank is developed. This system guarantees reaching profitability, liquidity and coverage of banking risks and thus allows the fullest protection of the interests of depositors, creditors and shareholders of the bank providing its sustainable development.

  12. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  13. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  14. Probabilistic integrated risk assessment of human exposure risk to environmental bisphenol A pollution sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Keng-Yen; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min

    2016-10-01

    Environmental bisphenol A (BPA) exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects such as developmental and reproductive issues. However, establishing a clear association between BPA and the likelihood of human health is complex yet fundamentally uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential exposure risks from environmental BPA among Chinese population based on five human health outcomes, namely immune response, uterotrophic assay, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and behavior change. We addressed these health concerns by using a stochastic integrated risk assessment approach. The BPA dose-dependent likelihood of effects was reconstructed by a series of Hill models based on animal models or epidemiological data. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that allows estimation of urinary BPA concentration from external exposures. Here we showed that the daily average exposure concentrations of BPA and urinary BPA estimates were consistent with the published data. We found that BPA exposures were less likely to pose significant risks for infants (0-1 year) and adults (male and female >20 years) with human long-term BPA susceptibility in relation to multiple exposure pathways, and for informing the public of the negligible magnitude of environmental BPA pollution impacts on human health.

  15. IRRAS, Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System for PC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.

    1995-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: IRRAS4.16 is a program developed for the purpose of performing those functions necessary to create and analyze a complete Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This program includes functions to allow the user to create event trees and fault trees, to define accident sequences and basic event failure data, to solve system and accident sequence fault trees, to quantify cut sets, and to perform uncertainty analysis on the results. Also included in this program are features to allow the analyst to generate reports and displays that can be used to document the results of an analysis. Since this software is a very detailed technical tool, the user of this program should be familiar with PRA concepts and the methods used to perform these analyses. 2 - Method of solution: IRRAS4.16 is written entirely in MODULA-2 and uses an integrated commercial graphics package to interactively construct and edit fault trees. The fault tree solving methods used are industry recognized top down algorithms. For quantification, the program uses standard methods to propagate the failure information through the generated cut sets. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Due to the complexity of and the variety of ways a fault tree can be defined it is difficult to define limits on the complexity of the problem solved by this software. It is, however, capable of solving a substantial fault tree due to efficient methods. At this time, the software can efficiently solve problems as large as other software currently used on mainframe computers. Does not include source code

  16. Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nesterenko Oksana O.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

  17. Having a Go: Looking at Teachers' Experience of Risk-Taking in Technology Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.; Gigliotti, Amanda

    2016-01-01

    Risk is an integral part of change. Technology-related change in teachers' practice is guided by confidence engaging in and beliefs about integration. However, it is also affected by how teachers feel about taking risks, experimenting and change. This paper presents a theoretical framework of affect and emotion to understand how teachers…

  18. Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

    1993-10-01

    The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

  19. Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

    2014-01-01

    Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

  20. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  1. Risk-Aversion: Understanding Teachers' Resistance to Technology Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Sarah K.

    2013-01-01

    Teachers who do not integrate technology are often labelled as "resistant" to change. Yet, considerable uncertainties remain about appropriate uses and actual value of technology in teaching and learning, which can make integration and change seem risky. The purpose of this article is to explore the nature of teachers' analytical and…

  2. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  3. International Asset Pricing, Currency Risk and Integration of Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sema BAYRAKTAR

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to test the conditional version of the international asset-pricing model proposed in Bayraktar (2000, 2009 by using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. The theoretical model, contrary to previous empirical studies that have used random selection of currency risks, determines which currencies should be included in an empirical test, thus avoids this kind of random selection bias. The results from both full and sub-samples regressions provide some weak evidence for the existence of exchange rate risks, thus partially support the theory. However, exchange rate risks' premia are found considerably smaller than that of market risk.

  4. A Risk Management Architecture for Emergency Integrated Aircraft Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlynn, Gregory E.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Lemon, Kimberly A.; Csank, Jeffrey T.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced engine operation--operation that is beyond normal limits--has the potential to improve the adaptability and safety of aircraft in emergency situations. Intelligent use of enhanced engine operation to improve the handling qualities of the aircraft requires sophisticated risk estimation techniques and a risk management system that spans the flight and propulsion controllers. In this paper, an architecture that weighs the risks of the emergency and of possible engine performance enhancements to reduce overall risk to the aircraft is described. Two examples of emergency situations are presented to demonstrate the interaction between the flight and propulsion controllers to facilitate the enhanced operation.

  5. Integrating Fine Arts Instruction with At Risk Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brieger, Charles; Kendall-Dudley, Lori; Sarmiento, Patty

    This report details a program design for improving fine arts instruction among at-risk students. The participants were in a second and third grade bilingual class and a first-through third-grade learning disabled and behavior disordered class in an at-risk elementary school along with a heterogeneous fourth-grade class in a neighboring Midwest…

  6. Development of Integrated Assessment Technology of Risk and Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jun Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2010-04-01

    The main idea and contents are summarized as below 1) Development of new risk/performance assessment system innovating old labor-intensive risk assessment structure - New consolidated risk assessment technology from various hazard(flood, fire, seismic in NPP) - BOP model development for performance monitoring - Consolidated risk/performance management system for consistency and efficiency of NPP 2) Resolution technology for pending issues in PSA - Base technology for PSA of digital I and C system - Base technology for seismic PSA reflecting domestic seismic characteristics and aging effect - Uncertainty reduction technology for level 2 PSA and best estimation of containment failure frequency 3) Next generation risk/performance assessment technology - Human-induced error reduction technology for efficient operation of a NPP

  7. An integrated risk sensing system for geo-structural safety

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    H.W. Huang; D.M. Zhang; B.M. Ayyub

    2017-01-01

    Over the last decades, geo-structures are experiencing a rapid development in China. The potential risks inherent in the huge amount of construction and asset operation projects in China were well managed in the major project, i.e. the project of Shanghai Yangtze tunnel in 2002. Since then, risk assessment of geo-structures has been gradually developed from a qualitative manner to a quantitative manner. However, the current practices of risk management have been paid considerable attention to the assessment, but little on risk control. As a result, the responses to risks occurrences after a comprehensive assessment are basically too late. In this paper, a smart system for risk sensing incorporating the wireless sensor network (WSN) on-site visualization techniques and the resilience-based repair strategy was proposed. The merit of this system is the real-time monitoring for geo-structural performance and dynamic pre-warning for safety of on-site workers. The sectional convergence, joint opening, and seepage of segmental lining of shield tunnel were monitored by the micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) based sensors. The light emitting diode (LED) coupling with the above WSN system was used to indicate different risk levels on site. By sensing the risks and telling the risks in real time, the geo-risks could be controlled and the safety of geo-structures could be assured to a certain degree. Finally, a resilience-based analysis model was proposed for designing the repair strategy by using the measured data from the WSN system. The application and efficiency of this system have been validated by two cases including Shanghai metro tunnel and underwater road tunnel.

  8. Risk assessment concept in the new approach directives and its integration in the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đapić Mirko

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In the nineties years of the previous century, the European Union achieved, through introducing the New and Global Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a significant improvement in the approach to conformity assessment of products, by integrating the requirements for technical products safety into the process of its designing. This was achieved by preventive analyzing and quantifying of risk levels in the design process with the objective of determining the scope of the needed safety systems. On the other hand, we have witnessed a rapid development and implementation of holistic approaches to risks management in enterprises, unified in the modern business practice by the name of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. Going along that line, the paper presents, through the basis of the EU New and Global Approach, the concept of risk assessment in the New Approach directives (Machinery, Lifts, ATEX, etc and provides the concept of its integration into the holistic approach of risks management in enterprises, such as ERM.

  9. Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

  10. Integrated Intervention for Diabetes Risk After Gestational Diabetes ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Reducing the risk, improving women's health Research has shown that ... diabetes from developing type 2 diabetes in the years after pregnancy. ... maternal and child health and nutrition together, rather than separately, as is currently done.

  11. Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengyel, David M.

    2009-01-01

    The NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) IRKM-P tightly couples risk management and knowledge management processes and tools to produce an effective "modern" work environment. IRKM-P objectives include: (1) to learn lessons from past and current programs (Apollo, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station); (2) to generate and share new engineering design, operations, and management best practices through preexisting Continuous Risk Management (CRM) procedures and knowledge-management practices; and (3) to infuse those lessons and best practices into current activities. The conceptual framework of the IRKM-P is based on the assumption that risks highlight potential knowledge gaps that might be mitigated through one or more knowledge management practices or artifacts. These same risks also serve as cues for collection of knowledge particularly, knowledge of technical or programmatic challenges that might recur.

  12. Social Integration and Reduced Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women: The Role of Lifestyle Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shun-Chiao; Glymour, Maria; Cornelis, Marilyn; Walter, Stefan; Rimm, Eric B; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D

    2017-06-09

    Higher social integration is associated with lower cardiovascular mortality; however, whether it is associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in women, and whether associations differ by case fatality are unclear. This study sought to examine the associations between social integration and risk of incident CHD in a large female prospective cohort. Seventy-six thousand three hundred and sixty-two women in the Nurses' Health Study, free of CHD and stroke at baseline (1992), were followed until 2014. Social integration was assessed by a simplified Berkman-Syme Social Network Index every 4 years. End points included nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD. Two thousand three hundred and seventy-two incident CHD events occurred throughout follow-up. Adjusting for demographic, health/medical risk factors, and depressive symptoms, being socially integrated was significantly associated with lower CHD risk, particularly fatal CHD. The most socially integrated women had a hazard ratio of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.73) of developing fatal CHD compared with those least socially integrated ( P for trend social integration and nonfatal myocardial infarction risk were largely explained by health-promoting behaviors, particularly through differences in cigarette smoking; however, the association with fatal CHD risk remained after accounting for these behaviors and, thus, may involve more direct biological mechanisms. Social integration is inversely associated with CHD incidence in women, but is largely explained by lifestyle/behavioral pathways. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Comparative, collaborative, and integrative risk governance for emerging technologies

    OpenAIRE

    LINKOV IGOR; TRUMP BENJAMIN D.; ANKLAM ELKE; BERBUBE DAVID; BOISSEAU PATRICK; CUMMINGS CHRISTOPHER; FERSON SCOTT; FLORIN MARIE-VALENTINE; GOLDSTEIN BERNARD; HRISTOZOV DANAIL; JENSEN KELD ASTRUP; KATALAGARIANAKIS GEORGIOS; KUZMA JENNIFER; LAMBERT JAMES H.; MALLOY TIMOTHY

    2018-01-01

    Various emerging technologies challenge existing governance processes to identify, assess, and manage risk. Though the existing risk-based paradigm has been essential for assessment of many chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear technologies, a complementary approach may be warranted for the early-stage assessment and management challenges of high uncertainty technologies ranging from nanotechnology to synthetic biology to artificial intelligence, among many others. This ...

  14. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lima, Isabela M. M.; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F.; de Miranda, Débora M.; Da Silva, Antônio G.; Neves, Fernando S.; Johnson, Sheri L.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relat...

  15. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  16. Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

  17. Risk assessment to an integrated planning model for UST programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The US Postal Service maintains the largest civilian fleet in the United States totaling approximately 180,000 vehicles. To support the fleets daily energy requirements, the Postal Service also operates one of the largest networks of underground storage tanks nearly 7,500 nationwide. A program to apply risk assessment to planning, budget development and other management actions was implemented during September, 1989. Working closely with a consultant, the postal service developed regulatory and environmental risk criteria and weighting factors for a ranking model. The primary objective was to identify relative risks for each underground tank at individual facilities. Relative risks at each facility were determined central to prioritizing scheduled improvements to the tank network. The survey was conducted on 302 underground tanks in the Northeast Region of the US. An environmental and regulatory risk score was computed for each UST. By ranking the tanks according to their risk score, tanks were classified into management action categories including, but the limited to, underground tank testing, retrofit, repair, replacement and closure

  18. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  19. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  20. Early amplitude‐integrated electroencephalography for monitoring neonates at high risk for brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Fernando Todeschi Variane

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: This study supports previous results and demonstrates the utility of amplitude‐integrated electroencephalography for monitoring brain function and predicting early outcome in the studied groups of infants at high risk for brain injury.

  1. Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

    2016-02-01

    The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources.

  2. Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

  3. Corporate foreign exchange speculation and integrated risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Hansen, Marianna Andryeyeva; Pantzalis, Christos

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how non-finance departmental involvement in the management of exchange rate risks impacts the extent of foreign exchange speculation in non-financial firms. Design/methodology/approach – We survey non-financial firms in a small open economy...... (Denmark) to investigate the extent of foreign exchange speculation and how it is related to the degree of non-finance departmental involvement in the management of exchange rate risks. We employ binary and ordered probit regression analysis. Findings – We find a positive link between 1) the extent...... to which other departments than the finance department is involved in the management of exchange rate risks and 2) the extent to which the firm is likely to speculate – whether in the form of selective hedging or active speculation – on the foreign exchange market. Practical implications – Our findings...

  4. Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Diallo, I.; Samand, A. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, (France); Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Hawkins, M. [Centre for Childhood Cancer Survivor Studies, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Oberlin, O. [Paediatrics Department, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Lefkopoulos, D. [Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France)

    2006-07-01

    In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

  5. Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F.; Diallo, I.; Samand, A.; Hawkins, M.; Oberlin, O.; Lefkopoulos, D.

    2006-01-01

    In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

  6. Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

    OpenAIRE

    Geis, Stefan Rafael

    2006-01-01

    This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

  7. Crisis and emergency risk communication as an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Barbara; W Seeger, Matthew

    2005-01-01

    This article describes a model of communication known as crisis and emergency risk communication (CERC). The model is outlined as a merger of many traditional notions of health and risk communication with work in crisis and disaster communication. The specific kinds of communication activities that should be called for at various stages of disaster or crisis development are outlined. Although crises are by definition uncertain, equivocal, and often chaotic situations, the CERC model is presented as a tool health communicators can use to help manage these complex events.

  8. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  9. An integrated dynamic model for probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsueh, K.-S.; Wang Kong

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a simulation based accident sequence analysis program (ADS) for large scale dynamic accident sequence simulation. Human operators, front-line and support systems as well as plant thermal-hydraulic behavior are explicitly modeled as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. To overcome the model size, the proposed methodology employs several techniques including use of 'initial state vector' which decouples time-dependent and time-independent factors, and a depth first integration method in which the computation memory demand increases in a linear order. The computer implementation of the method is capable of simulating up to 500 branch points in sequence development, models system failure during operation, allows for recovery from operator errors and hardware failures, and implements a simple model for operator system interactions. (author)

  10. Integrated Intervention for Diabetes Risk After Gestational Diabetes ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    They will work with at-risk women from poor communities who use the public health system in the cities of Cape Town and Johannesburg. The proposed intervention involves offering women a special test to see whether they have diabetes six weeks after delivery, along with counselling about healthy lifestyles from a ...

  11. Integrating Technology into the Curriculum for "At-Risk" Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Denise

    2009-01-01

    This Independent Learning Project (ILP) discusses the best practices in educational technology to improve the behavior, instruction, and learning of at-risk youth, for whom technology offers unique opportunities. Research is compiled from numerous scholarly print and online sources. A guide for teachers provides detailed strategies, software…

  12. CIA increases cybersecurity Integrated approach to digital risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    The article gives an overview of activities of the cybersecurity group, which was set up in order to go a step further. They have launched a project to manage cybersecurity. The underlying principle is a general pattern that determines policies and the responsibilities for risk management.

  13. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stol, D.; Badenbroek, I.; Hollander, M.; Nielen, M.; Schellevis, F.; Wit, N. de

    2014-01-01

    The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study): a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial protocol. Rationale: The increasing prevalence of cardiometabolic disease (CMD), including cardiovascular

  14. Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Daniel McKenney; John Pedlar; Frank Koch; David Cook

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in north america and elsewhere. Assessments of risk and impacts remain difficult due to...

  15. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

  16. The contribution of disaster management to integrated flood risk management strategies: lessons learned from the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolen, B.; van Alphen, J

    2017-01-01

    An integrated flood risk management (IFRM) strategy consist of a comprehensive set of measures to reduce the risk: protective measures (to reduce the probability of a flood), and land use planning and disaster management (to reduce the consequences of a flood. In the Netherlands this is called a

  17. Integration of risk and benefit analysis - The window of benefit as a new tool?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palou, A.; Pico, C.; Keijer, J.

    2009-01-01

    Foods and food components can have positive and/or negative effects on our health, resulting in benefits and risks. At present these are evaluated in largely separated trajectories. In view of assessment, management, and communication, we here propose and argue for an integrated evaluation of risk

  18. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  19. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  20. The Program Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: A Study of Australian University Lawyers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Craig; Freudenberg, Brett; Giddings, Jeff; Klopper, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business in higher education. The strategic opportunities that WIL presents for universities cannot be achieved without taking on unavoidable legal risks. University lawyers are involved with managing the legal risks as part of their internal delivery of legal services to universities. It is important to…

  1. INTEGRATED APPROACHES TO GEOPOLITICS AND RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim; Dr. Iro Uke

    2016-01-01

    The paper examines the nature and impact of geopolitics on the global oil and gas business. It shows the relationship between politics and what nature provides such as oil and gas and the interplay between and among nations, people and institutions within the framework of geopolitics. The paper adopts the secondary methodology in order to investigate the risks (impact) attached to geopolitics. Findings show that, the concept of geopolitics is so versatile and multidimensional, enveloped by a ...

  2. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    OpenAIRE

    Goussen, Benoit Regis Marc; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing ...

  3. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  4. Integrating a gender dimension into osteoporosis and fracture risk research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geusens, Piet; Dinant, Geertjan

    2007-01-01

    Sex (referring to the strict biological sense) and gender (referring to the sociocultural dimension) are major determinants of health and disease. This review examines similarities and differences between the sexes in the prevalence of osteoporosis and fractures, bone- and fall-related risk factors for incident fractures, and the possibilities of fracture prevention, as well as gender differences in the perception of osteoporosis. We reviewed recent English-language publications on sex and gender differences in the context of osteoporosis and fracture risk. We refer to several reviews that provide extensive reference lists on the topics discussed. The incidence of fractures is higher in boys than in girls. The burden of fractures in adults increases with age, and it starts earlier and is higher in adult women than in adult men. With life expectancy increasing, the annual number of fractures is likely to increase substantially. Fractures in adults contribute to increased mortality (more in men than in women), increased morbidity (equal in men and women), and high costs (greater for women than for men). Adult men experience fewer fractures than women do. Men build larger bones with better microarchitecture while they are growing and thereafter have less increase in bone remodeling. Furthermore, they develop bone loss at a later age. Compared with their female counterparts, fewer older men are hypogonadic, and life expectancy is shorter for men than for women. There are multiple reasons for the differences in the incidences of fractures between men and women, related to the many factors associated with both bone and falls that influence fracture risk from the molecular and cellular level to the organ level. Sex hormones play a central and essential role in the physiology of bone by direct and indirect mechanisms (eg, by interfering with the growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-1 axis). Case-finding strategies to identify patients at highest risk for fractures

  5. Credit Risk Management. A study on risk integration in the bank lending process.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sleddens, Linda Elsa Wilhelmina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk management has been a topic much written about in the last decade. Substantial credit risk losses can undermine the stability of the bank. Both banks and national bank supervisors have realized the need to invest in credit risk management. Partly driven by regulations such as the Basel

  6. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation. .

  7. An integrative model of risk for high school disordered eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Heather A; Smith, Gregory T

    2018-06-21

    Binge eating and purging behaviors are associated with significant harm and distress among adolescents. The process by which these behaviors develop (often in the high school years) is not fully understood. We tested the Acquired Preparedness (AP) model of risk involving transactions among biological, personality, and psychosocial factors to predict binge eating and purging behavior in a sample of 1,906 children assessed in the spring of 5th grade (the last year of elementary school), the fall of 6th grade (the first year of middle school), spring of 6th grade, and spring of 10th grade (second year of high school). Pubertal onset in spring of 5th grade predicted increases in negative urgency, but not negative affect, in the fall of 6th grade. Negative urgency in the fall of 6th grade predicted increases in expectancies for reinforcement from eating in the spring of 6th grade, which in turn predicted increases in binge eating behavior in the spring of 10th grade. Negative affect in the fall of 6th grade predicted increases in thinness expectancies in the spring of 6th grade, which in turn predicted increases in purging in the spring of 10th grade. Results demonstrate similarities and differences in the development of these two different bulimic behaviors. Intervention efforts targeting the risk factors evident in this model may prove fruitful in the treatment of eating disorders characterized by binge eating and purging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

  9. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  10. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Integrated Project Management: A Case Study in Integrating Cost, Schedule, Technical, and Risk Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Greg

    2004-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation describes a case study as a model for integrated project management. The ISS Program Office (ISSPO) developed replacement fluid filtration cartridges in house for the International Space Station (ISS). The presentation includes a step-by-step procedure and organizational charts for how the fluid filtration problem was approached.

  13. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Integrated testing strategies can be optimal for chemical risk classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raseta, Marko; Pitchford, Jon; Cussens, James; Doe, John

    2017-08-01

    There is an urgent need to refine strategies for testing the safety of chemical compounds. This need arises both from the financial and ethical costs of animal tests, but also from the opportunities presented by new in-vitro and in-silico alternatives. Here we explore the mathematical theory underpinning the formulation of optimal testing strategies in toxicology. We show how the costs and imprecisions of the various tests, and the variability in exposures and responses of individuals, can be assembled rationally to form a Markov Decision Problem. We compute the corresponding optimal policies using well developed theory based on Dynamic Programming, thereby identifying and overcoming some methodological and logical inconsistencies which may exist in the current toxicological testing. By illustrating our methods for two simple but readily generalisable examples we show how so-called integrated testing strategies, where information of different precisions from different sources is combined and where different initial test outcomes lead to different sets of future tests, can arise naturally as optimal policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  16. An Integrated Soft Computing Approach to Hughes Syndrome Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilhena, João; Rosário Martins, M; Vicente, Henrique; Grañeda, José M; Caldeira, Filomena; Gusmão, Rodrigo; Neves, João; Neves, José

    2017-03-01

    The AntiPhospholipid Syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune disorder induced by high levels of antiphospholipid antibodies that cause arterial and veins thrombosis, as well as pregnancy-related complications and morbidity, as clinical manifestations. This autoimmune hypercoagulable state, usually known as Hughes syndrome, has severe consequences for the patients, being one of the main causes of thrombotic disorders and death. Therefore, it is required to be preventive; being aware of how probable is to have that kind of syndrome. Despite the updated of antiphospholipid syndrome classification, the diagnosis remains difficult to establish. Additional research on clinically relevant antibodies and standardization of their quantification are required in order to improve the antiphospholipid syndrome risk assessment. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a computational framework based on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model allows for improving the diagnosis, classifying properly the patients that really presented this pathology (sensitivity higher than 85%), as well as classifying the absence of APS (specificity close to 95%).

  17. Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

    2009-07-01

    Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)

  18. Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa Magalhães Teixeira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. Method: an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. Results: altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. Conclusions: risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation.

  19. Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

  20. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  1. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter

    2015-01-01

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects

  2. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, Rianne, E-mail: rianne.jacobs@wur.nl; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter [Wageningen University and Research Centre, Biometris (Netherlands)

    2015-06-15

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  3. Compound risk judgment in tasks with both idiosyncratic and systematic risk: The "Robust Beauty" of additive probability integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundh, Joakim; Juslin, Peter

    2018-02-01

    In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

    2005-07-01

    PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

  5. An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

    1999-01-01

    Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

  6. RCT of an integrated CBT-HIV intervention on depressive symptoms and HIV risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Karin; Davey-Rothwell, Melissa A; Nonyane, Bareng A S; Knowlton, Amy; Wissow, Lawrence; Latkin, Carl A

    2017-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms mediate the association between drug use and HIV risk. Yet, there are few interventions that target depressive symptoms and HIV risk for people who use drugs (PWUD). This study was a randomized controlled trial of an integrated cognitive behavioral therapy and HIV prevention intervention to reduce depressive symptoms, injection risk behaviors and increase condom use in a sample of urban people who used heroin or cocaine in the prior 6 months. A total of 315 individuals aged 18-55, who self-reported at least one HIV drug and sex risk behavior and scored ≥16 and symptoms, but weak impact on HIV risk. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov under the title "Neighborhoods, Networks, Depression, and HIV Risk" number NCT01380613.

  7. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  8. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

  9. An integrated PRA module for fast determination of risk significance and improvement effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, Chun-Chang; Lin, Jyh-Der

    2004-01-01

    With the widely use of PRA technology in risk-informed applications, to predict the changes of CDF and LERF becomes a standard process for risk-informed applications. This paper describes an integrated PRA module prepared for risk-informed applications. The module contains a super risk engine, a super fault tree engine, an advanced PRA model and a tool for data base maintenance. The individual element of the module also works well for purpose other than risk-informed applications. The module has been verified and validated through a series of scrupulous benchmark tests with similar software. The results of the benchmark tests showed that the module has remarkable accuracy and speed even for an extremely large-size top-logic fault tree as well as for the case in which large amount of MCSs may be generated. The risk monitor for nuclear power plants in Taiwan is the first application to adopt the module. The results predicted by the risk monitor are now accepted by the regulatory agency. A tool to determine the risk significance according to the inspection findings will be the next application to adopt the module in the near future. This tool classified the risk significance into four different color codes according to the level of increase on CDF. Experience of application showed that the flexibility, the accuracy and speed of the module make it useful in any risk-informed applications when risk indexes must be determined by resolving a PRA model. (author)

  10. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  11. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  12. Integrated systems approach identifies risk regulatory pathways and key regulators in coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Liu, Dianming; Wang, Lihong; Wang, Shuyuan; Yu, Xuexin; Dai, Enyu; Liu, Xinyi; Luo, Shanshun; Jiang, Wei

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common type of heart disease. However, the molecular mechanisms of CAD remain elusive. Regulatory pathways are known to play crucial roles in many pathogenic processes. Thus, inferring risk regulatory pathways is an important step toward elucidating the mechanisms underlying CAD. With advances in high-throughput data, we developed an integrated systems approach to identify CAD risk regulatory pathways and key regulators. Firstly, a CAD-related core subnetwork was identified from a curated transcription factor (TF) and microRNA (miRNA) regulatory network based on a random walk algorithm. Secondly, candidate risk regulatory pathways were extracted from the subnetwork by applying a breadth-first search (BFS) algorithm. Then, risk regulatory pathways were prioritized based on multiple CAD-associated data sources. Finally, we also proposed a new measure to prioritize upstream regulators. We inferred that phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) may be a key regulator in the dysregulation of risk regulatory pathways. This study takes a closer step than the identification of disease subnetworks or modules. From the risk regulatory pathways, we could understand the flow of regulatory information in the initiation and progression of the disease. Our approach helps to uncover its potential etiology. We developed an integrated systems approach to identify risk regulatory pathways. We proposed a new measure to prioritize the key regulators in CAD. PTEN may be a key regulator in dysregulation of the risk regulatory pathways.

  13. Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

    2016-04-01

    A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

    2015-04-01

    Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fayaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

  17. The Tous Dam Disaster of 1982: Risk communication and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra-Llobet, A.; Tàbara, J.; Sauri, D.

    2012-12-01

    The failure of Tous dam on the Júcar River near Valencia in 1982 was one of the most important socio-natural disasters in 20th century Spain. The death toll of 25 would have been much greater had not a local dam manager anticipated the failure and alerted mayors of a failure, before it actually occurred. The Tous Dam failure occurred a week before the first democratic elections in Spain after the Franco dictatorship, it received extensive coverage in the media. As a result, this disaster triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed at multiple levels of government in Spain. Many factors, often of a qualitative and organisational nature, affect (vertical and horizontal) communication in disaster risk reduction learning and planning at the community level. Through interviews with key actors and stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, review of historical and media accounts, and analysis of legislation and regulation, we documented changes that resulted from the Tous Dam failure: (1) A process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organisations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. (2) Actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain.We identify three main stages from 1980s to present in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area, which show a progressive shift towards a more integrated and preventative approach: (1) After the collapse of the Tous Dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives (e.g. the UN International Decade for Natural

  18. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I. A knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, P.S.; Thomsen, M.; Assmuth, T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environ...... and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management.......This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human...... and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again...

  19. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

  20. Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

    2015-01-01

    The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

  1. Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

    2006-01-01

    The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

  2. Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management: The Role of Import in Medium-Sized, Manufacturing Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as an instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role of impor...

  3. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by

  4. Integral Risk Management for DBFM Tenders and Contracts in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wong, J.; Berkelaar, R.; Pekelharing, H.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of an integral risk management approach with emphasis on the relationships with the costing and scheduling processes. Forms of uncertainty related to project planning are classified and implemented in the probabilistic costing and scheduling processes. Furthermore,

  5. Online communication among adolescents: An integrated model on its attraction, opportunities, and risks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents far outnumber adults in their use of e-communication technologies, such as instant messaging and social network sites. In this article, we present an integrative model that helps us to understand both the appeal of these technologies and their risks and opportunities for the psychosocial

  6. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

  7. Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Islam, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

    PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam

    This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of

  8. An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

  9. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  10. Integrating household risk mitigation behaviour in flood risk analysis : An agent-based model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect

  11. Evaluation of sustainable supply chain risk management using an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS- CRITIC approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostamzadeh, Reza; Ghorabaee, Mehdi Keshavarz; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    Supply chain risk management research has mainly mistreated the important of sustainability issues. Moreover, there is little knowledge about sustainable management of risk and supply chain and the way they impose losses for firms. Risk management's duty in the supply chain is to identify, analyze......, and provide solutions for accountability, control and monitor the risks in the economic and production cycle. This study aims to develop a framework for the sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) evaluation. To this end, an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed...... based on the technique in order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. The literature was reviewed and the potential criteria were identified. Through an expert panel the criteria were filtered. Seven main...

  12. Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

  13. Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents

  14. Risk and Work Configuration Management as a Function of Integrated Safety Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lana Buehrer; Michele Kelly; Fran Lemieux; Fred Williams

    2007-01-01

    National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec), has established a work management program and corresponding electronic Facilities and Operations Management Information System (e-FOM) to implement Integrated Safety Management (ISM). The management of work scopes, the identification of hazards, and the establishment of implementing controls are reviewed and approved through electronic signatures. Through the execution of the program and the implementation of the electronic system, NSTec staff work within controls and utilize feedback and improvement process. The Integrated Work Control Manual further implements the five functions of ISM at the Activity level. By adding the Risk and Work Configuration Management program, NSTec establishes risk acceptance (business and physical) for liabilities within the performance direction and work management processes. Requirements, roles, and responsibilities are specifically identified in the program while e-FOM provides the interface and establishes the flowdown from the Safety Chain to work and facilities management processes to company work-related directives, and finally to Subject Matter Expert concurrence. The Program establishes, within the defined management structure, management levels for risk identification, risk mitigation (controls), and risk acceptance (business and physical) within the Safety Chain of Responsibility. The Program also implements Integrated Safeguards and Security Management within the NSTec Safety Chain of Responsibility. Once all information has been entered into e-FOM, approved, and captured as data, the information becomes searchable and sortable by hazard, location, organization, mitigating controls, etc

  15. A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2007-01-01

    Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

  16. Risk perception and control, an integration of the psychometric research paradigm and social psychology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haugen, K.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: this paper argues that perceptual control is an essential component in human risk evaluation. Control is seen as an integrative concept between the psychometric research paradigm and various psychological theories. The psychometric approach to the study of risk has mainly dealt with the intuitive judgements people do when they are asked to evaluate risky activities and technologies. It shows that people judge risk in relation to the possible consequences and probabilities related to an outcome; the former more typical for the public and the latter more often used by experts. The psychometric research tradition has concentrated on doing human risk evaluations quantifiable and the reactions predictable. This paper also relates to possible practical implications of this strategy, namely that humans react heterogeneously to different kinds of threats due to perceived control. Theoretical ability to explain and elaborate perceptions of risk, as well as individual reactions, were the main criteria for the literature selection, which includes work on e.g. attribution theory, locus of control, and learned helplessness. Thus, the paper addresses available psychological views for a contribution to a developed theoretical framework for human risk evaluation. It seeks to compare and integrate the psychometric research tradition within social psychological theories. The way in which people find their informational basis for their risk judgements, either from others or from their own perceptions is also discussed. Furthermore, the theories are related to the social and psychological reactions of the Chernobyl accident. The paper concludes that psychological theories can contribute to a more comprehensive framework for the understanding of human risk evaluation, leading to a more coherent and integrative knowledge. (author)

  17. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  18. Integration of laboratory bioassays into the risk-based corrective action process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, D.; Messina, F.; Clark, J.

    1995-01-01

    Recent data generated by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) and others indicate that residual hydrocarbon may be bound/sequestered in soil such that it is unavailable for microbial degradation, and thus possibly not bioavailable to human/ecological receptors. A reduction in bioavailability would directly equate to reduced exposure and, therefore, potentially less-conservative risk-based cleanup soil goals. Laboratory bioassays which measure bioavailability/toxicity can be cost-effectively integrated into the risk-based corrective action process. However, in order to maximize the cost-effective application of bioassays several site-specific parameters should be addressed up front. This paper discusses (1) the evaluation of parameters impacting the application of bioassays to soils contaminated with metals and/or petroleum hydrocarbons and (2) the cost-effective integration of bioassays into a tiered ASTM type framework for risk-based corrective action

  19. An Integrated Cyber Security Risk Management Approach for a Cyber-Physical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halima Ibrahim Kure

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A cyber-physical system (CPS is a combination of physical system components with cyber capabilities that have a very tight interconnectivity. CPS is a widely used technology in many applications, including electric power systems, communications, and transportation, and healthcare systems. These are critical national infrastructures. Cybersecurity attack is one of the major threats for a CPS because of many reasons, including complexity and interdependencies among various system components, integration of communication, computing, and control technology. Cybersecurity attacks may lead to various risks affecting the critical infrastructure business continuity, including degradation of production and performance, unavailability of critical services, and violation of the regulation. Managing cybersecurity risks is very important to protect CPS. However, risk management is challenging due to the inherent complex and evolving nature of the CPS system and recent attack trends. This paper presents an integrated cybersecurity risk management framework to assess and manage the risks in a proactive manner. Our work follows the existing risk management practice and standard and considers risks from the stakeholder model, cyber, and physical system components along with their dependencies. The approach enables identification of critical CPS assets and assesses the impact of vulnerabilities that affect the assets. It also presents a cybersecurity attack scenario that incorporates a cascading effect of threats and vulnerabilities to the assets. The attack model helps to determine the appropriate risk levels and their corresponding mitigation process. We present a power grid system to illustrate the applicability of our work. The result suggests that risk in a CPS of a critical infrastructure depends mainly on cyber-physical attack scenarios and the context of the organization. The involved risks in the studied context are both from the technical and

  20. Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2010-01-01

    A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures

  1. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  2. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  3. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

    2011-06-01

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

  4. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

  5. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hun Lee

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  6. Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

    2012-03-01

    Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  8. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  9. Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

    2016-05-01

    The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

  10. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  11. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  12. An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

  13. The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

    2004-01-01

    Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

  14. Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

    2013-04-01

    In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

  15. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  16. Social Learning through Participatory Integrated Catchment Risk Assessment in the Solomon Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne Hoverman

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In developed countries a social learning approach has been shown to support Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM by fostering stakeholders' understanding of system complexity, recognition of mutual dependence, appreciation of others' perspectives, and development of the capacity to work together and to create mutual trust. Much less is known about social learning's potential in less developed small island states, particularly postconflict island states, where integration must navigate prescriptive management, limited resources, widely differing world views, a history of adversarial relationships, and unsuccessful attempts at government-community collaboration. This paper analyzes the transformative aspects of a social learning experience that occurred during research facilitating participatory integrated catchment management in the Pacific. The study elicited community and expert knowledge to create systems understanding to generate and analyze complex scenarios for integrated catchment risk assessment in the Kongulai catchment, Solomon Islands. Separate sequenced and then combined discussions led to facilitated exploration of others' subjective assessment of catchment risks and management options. Issues of transparency, trust, accountability, and mutual responsibility were explored in carefully created discursive spaces, assisted by the immediacy of personal contact and the absence of complex bureaucratic structures. Despite historical difficulties, through the use of bridging individuals, participants were generally able to transcend the constraints of their individual knowledge cultures, expand awareness and appreciation of the complexity of human-environment systems for IWRM, and envisage new opportunities for productively working together in integrated catchment management.

  17. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  18. On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ararat, Cagin

    In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In

  19. Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

    2013-01-01

    Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

  20. Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

    2014-01-01

    To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

  1. Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of Accounting Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of IT in the financial and accounting processes is growing fast and this leads to an increase in the research and professional concerns about the risks, control and audit of Ac-counting Information Systems (AIS. In this context, the risk and control of AIS approach is a central component of processes for IT audit, financial audit and IT Governance. Recent studies in the literature on the concepts of risk, control and auditing of AIS outline two approaches: (1 a professional approach in which we can fit ISA, COBIT, IT Risk, COSO and SOX, and (2 a research oriented approach in which we emphasize research on continuous auditing and fraud using information technology. Starting from the limits of existing approaches, our study is aimed to developing and testing an Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of AIS on three cycles of business processes: purchases cycle, sales cycle and cash cycle in order to improve the efficiency of IT Governance, as well as ensuring integrity, reality, accuracy and availability of financial statements.

  2. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-08-01

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  3. Risk factors associated with mental health issues in adolescents: a integrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Caroline Souza Pinto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To identify the risk factors associated with mental health issues in adolescents. Method: An integrative review was conducted in four databases with publications from 2007 to 2013. The terms Adolescent and Mental Health were used to search adequate articles as DeCs/MeSH bases. Results: Publications were found in different journals in different fields of knowledge and the quantitative research was the most frequent. The mental health issues were categorized as individual factors; drug related factors, school factors, family factors, social factors and STDs/Aids related factors. The most addressed category was individual factors, with 23 publications. Conclusion: The integrative review allowed to point important questions to be addressed in preventive actions by the health professional, including the nurse, to create a space that works with risk conditioning factors in adolescents for mental health aggravation.

  4. Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J.; Eckelman, Matthew; Isaacs, Jacqueline A.; Pourzahedi, Leila

    2015-01-01

    The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation

  5. Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J., E-mail: c.bosso@neu.edu [Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs (United States); Eckelman, Matthew [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States); Isaacs, Jacqueline A. [Northeastern University, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering (United States); Pourzahedi, Leila [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States)

    2015-08-15

    The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation.

  6. Tuberculosis in Sheltered Homeless Population of Rome: An Integrated Model of Recruitment for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Laurenti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors show the results of an integrated model for risk management of tuberculosis in a sample of sheltered homeless in Rome. Tuberculin skin test (TST was used for evaluating the prevalence of latent infection (LTBI. In TST positives, expectorate was collected and chest X-ray was achieved. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate determinants of infection. Out of 288 recruited subjects, 259 returned for the TST reading; 45.56% were positive and referred to a specialized center; 70 accessed the health facility and completed the clinical pathway. The risk factors associated to LTBI were male gender (OR=3.72, age over 60 years (OR=3.59, immigrant status (OR=3.73, and obesity (OR=2.19. This approach, based on an integrated social network, guarantees high adherence to screening (89.93%, allowing patients testing positive for latent tuberculosis infection to be diagnosed and rapidly referred to a specialized center.

  7. A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

  8. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2013-09-15

    Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

  10. Safety and resiliency in action: Integrating risk management into local development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebay Jorge S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the efforts of the local government unit (LGU of San Jose de Buenavista, in the Province of Antique in central Philippines to manage risks associated with multiple hazards to protect the people, their livelihoods and local development gains. More specifically, it analyzes the process of pursuing risk management objectives vis-a-vis national and international disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM norms, without loosing sight of local contextual realities that directly influence people’s vulnerabilities and capacities. Risk management initiatives in the LGU revolve around four key areas namely disaster prevention and mitigation, disaster preparedness, emergency response, and recovery and rehabilitation. Binding these initiatives are actions that integrate governance mechanisms with scientific data and sectoral and community participation to develop a comprehensive plan of action and standard operating procedures that will serve as guideposts in the process of building a safer community. The experience of San Jose de Buenavista also suggests that cost saving strategies an be replicated by communities and organizations that have financial limitations to pursue DRRM objectives. This paper contends that risk management is a fundamental development strategy to pursue local development goals and to sustain efforts to protect development gains in the long run. This can be done using a combination of governance, risk assessment, knowledge management, vulnerability reduction and preparedness strategies. Local leadership, people’s participation, environmental resource management and continuous capability building are key elements of the process. Ultimately, risk management must be mainstreamed into local development to develop community resiliency.

  11. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome J. Schleier III

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

  12. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-01-01

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

  13. Integrating Security Risk Management into Business Process Management for the Cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Goettelmann , Elio; Mayer , Nicolas; Godart , Claude

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Security issues are still preventing wider adoption of cloud computing, especially for businesses which are handling sensitive information. Indeed, by outsourcing its information system (IS), a company can lose control over its infrastructure, its software or even its data. Therefore, new methods and tools need to be defined to respond to this challenge. In this paper we propose to integrate Security Risk Management approaches into Business Process Management to effect...

  14. The role of risk assessment and safety analysis in integrated safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niall, R.; Hunt, M.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-01-01

    To ensure that the design and operation of both nuclear and non- nuclear hazardous facilities is acceptable, and meets all societal safety expectations, a rigorous deterministic and probabilistic assessment is necessary. An approach is introduced, founded on the concept of an ''Integrated Safety Assessment.'' It merges the commonly performed safety and risk analyses and uses them in concert to provide decision makers with the necessary depth of understanding to achieve ''adequacy.'' 3 refs., 1 fig

  15. Newly developed integrated model to reduce risks in the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo, Birger

    2001-01-01

    A new model which integrates hydro-scheduling and financial hedging has been developed in cooperation with Norsk Hydro. We believe the new tool will be useful for owners of hydropower plants that want to reduce risks in the power market. The model development started in 1997 and was financed by Norsk Hydro. As of 1998, the main financial contributor has been the Research Council of Norway through a project in the Strategic Institute Programme. (author)

  16. ESTIMATION OF PROCESSES REALIZATION RISK AS A MANNER OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN THE INTEGRATED SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Karkoszka

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Realization of quality, environmental and occupational health and safety policy using the proposed model of processes' integrated risk estimation leads to the improvement of the analyzed productive processes by the preventive and corrective actions, and in consequence - to their optimization from the point of view of products' quality and in the aspect of quality of environmental influence and occupational health and safety.

  17. ESTIMATION OF PROCESSES REALIZATION RISK AS A MANNER OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN THE INTEGRATED SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Karkoszka

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Realization of quality, environmental and occupational health and safety policy using the proposed model of processes' integrated risk estimation leads to the improvement of the analyzed productive processes by the preventive and corrective actions, and in consequence - to their optimization from the point of view of products' quality and in the aspect of quality of environmental influence and occupational health and safety.

  18. Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, B.

    2016-12-01

    Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and

  19. Integrative Therapies for Women with a High Risk Pregnancy During Antepartum Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlegel, Merry L; Whalen, Jeanne L; Williamsen, Pilar M

    High-risk pregnancies that require lengthy hospitalization can cause anxiety and stress for pregnant women. Integrative medicine therapies may be beneficial for this population, but have not been widely studied. The purpose of this study was to evaluate potential effects of acupuncture, guided imagery, Healing Touch, massage therapy, and reflexology on pain and anxiety of hospitalized pregnant women. A retrospective analysis of the effects of integrative medicine therapies was conducted; N = 554 individual therapies were provided to hospitalized women with high-risk pregnancies. They included acupuncture (n = 83), guided imagery (n = 71), Healing Touch (n = 119), massage therapy (n = 196), and reflexology (n = 85) over an 18-month period. Pain and anxiety were measured pre- and posttherapy using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means no pain or no anxiety and 10 means high pain or high anxiety. Analysis of mean scores of pre- and posttherapies for pain and anxiety found a decrease of pain and anxiety after all of the therapies, ranging from an 84.5% to 61.4% decrease for pain (p < .0001) and a 91% to 70. 9% decrease for anxiety (p < .0001). Overall, patients rated their anxiety higher than pain prior to each therapy. Hospitalized pregnant women responded favorably to the therapies. There were no adverse reactions reported. Results suggest potential benefits of integrative medicine therapies for this group of inpatients. Anxiety was more prevalent than pain among hospitalized pregnant women who received integrative medicine therapy.

  20. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  1. Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

    2008-01-01

    In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm

  2. RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura – Maria POPESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

  3. Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jin Won [Graduate School of Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo [Dept. Radiological Science, College of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening.

  4. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  5. Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2013-11-01

    The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

  6. Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jin Won; Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo

    2016-01-01

    This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening

  7. Factors associated with health risk behaviors among Brazilian adolescents: an integrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Luciana Ramos de; Torres, Lilian Machado; Cadete, Matilde Meire Miranda; Cunha, Cristiane de Freitas

    2018-01-01

    Identifying knowledge about factors associated with health risk behaviors among Brazilian adolescents. An integrative review of the literature conducted in the Cochrane, IBECS, LILACS, MEDLINE and SciELO databases in relation to risk behaviors recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Thirty-seven (37) studies were analyzed, with a predominance of risky sexual behavior, tobacco use and violent behavior. Advancing age favored unprotected sex, alcohol and tobacco use. Family and friends influence was related to smoking and alcoholism. Males were more involved in situations of violence and the female gender was associated with physical inactivity. Belonging to a lower economic class was related to unprotected sex, physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary behaviors and violence. Studying in private school was related to unhealthy dietary behavior. Risk behaviors were related to social, economic and family factors and they tend to agglomerate.

  8. An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

    2013-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

  9. A risk characterization of safety research areas for integral fast reactor program planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.; Kramer, J.M.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Pedersen, D.R.; Sevy, R.H.; Tibbrook, R.W.; Wei, T.Y.; Wright, A.E.

    1988-01-01

    This paper characterizes the areas of integral fast reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure to critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR safety and related base technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorities

  10. Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Urban wastewater systems should be evaluated and analysed from an integrated point of view, taking all parts of the system, that is sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving waters into consideration. Risk and parameter uncertainties are aspects that hardly ever have been addressed...... in the evaluation and design of urban wastewater systems. In this paper we present and discuss a probabilistic approach for evaluation of the performance of urban wastewater systems. Risk analysis together with the traditional cost-benefit analysis is a special variant of multi-criteria analysis that seeks to find...... the most feasible improvement alternative for an urban wastewater system. The most feasible alternative in this context is the alternative that has the best performance, meaning that the alternative has the lowest sum of costs, benefits and risks. The sum is expressed as the Net Present Cost (NPC). To use...

  11. A risk characterization of safety research areas for Integral Fast Reactor program planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper characterizes the areas of Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure of critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR Safety and related Base Technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorites

  12. Integral risk assessment. Technical, ethical and social aspects. Ganzheitliche Risikobetrachtungen. Technische, ethische und soziale Aspekte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chakraborty, S; Yadigaroglu, G [eds.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.).

  13. Integrating emerging earth science technologies into disaster risk management: an enterprise architecture approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, J. D.; Hao, W.; Chettri, S. R.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster risk management has grown to rely on earth observations, multi-source data analysis, numerical modeling, and interagency information sharing. The practice and outcomes of disaster risk management will likely undergo further change as several emerging earth science technologies come of age: mobile devices; location-based services; ubiquitous sensors; drones; small satellites; satellite direct readout; Big Data analytics; cloud computing; Web services for predictive modeling, semantic reconciliation, and collaboration; and many others. Integrating these new technologies well requires developing and adapting them to meet current needs; but also rethinking current practice to draw on new capabilities to reach additional objectives. This requires a holistic view of the disaster risk management enterprise and of the analytical or operational capabilities afforded by these technologies. One helpful tool for this assessment, the GEOSS Architecture for the Use of Remote Sensing Products in Disaster Management and Risk Assessment (Evans & Moe, 2013), considers all phases of the disaster risk management lifecycle for a comprehensive set of natural hazard types, and outlines common clusters of activities and their use of information and computation resources. We are using these architectural views, together with insights from current practice, to highlight effective, interrelated roles for emerging earth science technologies in disaster risk management. These roles may be helpful in creating roadmaps for research and development investment at national and international levels.

  14. Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

  15. Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

  16. Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkash Gupta, Surya

    2015-04-01

    The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

  17. Neural initialization of audiovisual integration in prereaders at varying risk for developmental dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I Karipidis, Iliana; Pleisch, Georgette; Röthlisberger, Martina; Hofstetter, Christoph; Dornbierer, Dario; Stämpfli, Philipp; Brem, Silvia

    2017-02-01

    Learning letter-speech sound correspondences is a major step in reading acquisition and is severely impaired in children with dyslexia. Up to now, it remains largely unknown how quickly neural networks adopt specific functions during audiovisual integration of linguistic information when prereading children learn letter-speech sound correspondences. Here, we simulated the process of learning letter-speech sound correspondences in 20 prereading children (6.13-7.17 years) at varying risk for dyslexia by training artificial letter-speech sound correspondences within a single experimental session. Subsequently, we acquired simultaneously event-related potentials (ERP) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans during implicit audiovisual presentation of trained and untrained pairs. Audiovisual integration of trained pairs correlated with individual learning rates in right superior temporal, left inferior temporal, and bilateral parietal areas and with phonological awareness in left temporal areas. In correspondence, a differential left-lateralized parietooccipitotemporal ERP at 400 ms for trained pairs correlated with learning achievement and familial risk. Finally, a late (650 ms) posterior negativity indicating audiovisual congruency of trained pairs was associated with increased fMRI activation in the left occipital cortex. Taken together, a short (audiovisual integration in neural systems that are responsible for processing linguistic information in proficient readers. To conclude, the ability to learn grapheme-phoneme correspondences, the familial history of reading disability, and phonological awareness of prereading children account for the degree of audiovisual integration in a distributed brain network. Such findings on emerging linguistic audiovisual integration could allow for distinguishing between children with typical and atypical reading development. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1038-1055, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals

  18. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  19. The development and application of an integrated radiological risk assessment procedure using time-dependent probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurens, J.M.; Thompson, B.G.J.; Sumerling, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    During the past decade, the UKDoE has funded the development of an integrated assessment procedure centred around probabilistic risk analysis (p.r.a.) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to account for the effects of parameter value uncertainty, including those associated with temporal changes in the environment over a postclosure period of about one million years. The influence of these changes can now be incorporated explicitly into the p.r.a. simulator VANDAL (Variability ANalysis of Disposal ALternatives) briefly described here. Although a full statistically converged time-dependent p.r.a. will not be demonstrated until the current Dry Run 3 trial is complete, illustrative examples are given showing the ability of VANDAL to represent spatially complex groundwater and repository systems evolving under the influence of climatic change. 18 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  20. Global electricity transformation: The critical need for integrated market design and risk management research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung-po Chao

    2006-01-01

    The past three decades transformed the electricity industry. The essential goals of liberalization have been to lower costs, improve reliability, and stimulate investment and innovations through establishment of competitive electricity markets, while also relying on market mechanisms to provide creative solutions to environmental and security problems. In many instances, these goals have been achieved, but the occurrence of some spectacular market failures have brought into question the whole restructuring effort. This paper reviews recent experiences with market reform and concludes that a significant cause of failure has been the rush to unbundle vertically integrated utilities without sufficient consideration of alternative ways to manage the risk of electricity market restructuring. In particular, there is a critical need for integrated market design and risk management research to improve the process of market transformation by taking a more evolutionary approach to discover a 'Third Way' above vertical integration and full unbundling. Such research can offer a crucial feedback link to the restructuring process by identifying important lessons to be learned from past experience and developing new analytical tools to help introduce more successful market designs for the future. (author)

  1. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  2. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) Version 2.0 user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1990-06-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Also provided in the system is an integrated full-screen editor for use when interfacing with remote mainframe computer systems. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.0 and is the subject of this user's guide. Version 2.0 of IRRAS provides all of the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 9 refs., 292 figs., 4 tabs

  3. Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kubal

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

  4. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  5. Development of an Integrative Program of Nanosafety: Promote the Coordination Between Industries and Risk Assessor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emond, Claude; Kouassi, Serge; Schuster, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    Nanomaterials are widely present in many industrial sectors (e.g., chemical, biomedical, environment), and their application is expected to significantly expand in the coming years. However, nanomaterial use raises many questions about the potential risks to human health and the environment and, more specifically, to occupational health. The available literature supports the ability of the lung, gastrointestinal tract, and skin to act as significant barriers against systemic exposure to many nanomaterials. However, because a potential risk issue exists about the toxicity of nanomaterials to the biological material, tools need to be developed for improving the risk management of the regulators. The goal is to develop a tool that examines the current knowledge base regarding the health risks posed by engineered nanoparticles to improve nanotechnology safety prior to the marketing phase. The approach proposed during this work was to establish a safety assessment constructed on a decision-control pathway regarding nanomaterial production and consumer's product to integrate different aspects. These aspects include: (1) primarily research and identification of the nanomaterial base of physicochemical properties, toxicity, and application; (2) the occupational exposure risk during the manufacturing process; (3) and the engineered nanomaterial upon the consumer product. This approach provides important parameters to reduce the uncertainty related to the production of nanomaterials prior their commercialization, reduce the reluctance from the industry, and provide a certification tool of sanitary control for the regulators. This work provides a better understanding of a critical issue of nanomaterials and consumer safety.

  6. Development of an Integrative Program of Nanosafety: Promote the Coordination Between Industries and Risk Assessor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emond, Claude; Kouassi, Serge; Schuster, Frédéric

    2013-04-01

    Nanomaterials are widely present in many industrial sectors (e.g., chemical, biomedical, environment), and their application is expected to significantly expand in the coming years. However, nanomaterial use raises many questions about the potential risks to human health and the environment and, more specifically, to occupational health. The available literature supports the ability of the lung, gastrointestinal tract, and skin to act as significant barriers against systemic exposure to many nanomaterials. However, because a potential risk issue exists about the toxicity of nanomaterials to the biological material, tools need to be developed for improving the risk management of the regulators. The goal is to develop a tool that examines the current knowledge base regarding the health risks posed by engineered nanoparticles to improve nanotechnology safety prior to the marketing phase. The approach proposed during this work was to establish a safety assessment constructed on a decision-control pathway regarding nanomaterial production and consumer's product to integrate different aspects. These aspects include: (1) primarily research and identification of the nanomaterial base of physicochemical properties, toxicity, and application; (2) the occupational exposure risk during the manufacturing process; (3) and the engineered nanomaterial upon the consumer product. This approach provides important parameters to reduce the uncertainty related to the production of nanomaterials prior their commercialization, reduce the reluctance from the industry, and provide a certification tool of sanitary control for the regulators. This work provides a better understanding of a critical issue of nanomaterials and consumer safety.

  7. Development of integrated parameter database for risk assessment at the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamauchi, Yoshikazu

    2011-01-01

    A study to develop a parameter database for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the application of risk information on plant operation and maintenance activity is important because the transparency, consistency, and traceability of parameters are needed to explanation adequacy of the evaluation to third parties. Application of risk information for the plant operation and maintenance activity, equipment reliability data, human error rate, and 5 factors of 'five-factor formula' for estimation of the amount of radioactive material discharge (source term) are key inputs. As a part of the infrastructure development for the risk information application, we developed the integrated parameter database, 'R-POD' (Rokkasho reprocessing Plant Omnibus parameter Database) on the trial basis for the PSA of the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant. This database consists primarily of the following 3 parts, 1) an equipment reliability database, 2) a five-factor formula database, and 3) a human reliability database. The underpinning for explaining the validity of the risk assessment can be improved by developing this database. Furthermore, this database is an important tool for the application of risk information, because it provides updated data by incorporating the accumulated operation experiences of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant. (author)

  8. Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

    2014-06-01

    This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. A comparison between integrated risk assessment and classical health/environmental assessment: Emerging beneficial properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekizawa, Jun; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2005-01-01

    Both humans and wildlife are exposed to various types of halogenated organic compounds such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), typically old chemicals, and tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPM) and brominated flame retardants, some new chemicals, simultaneously. Classical risk assessment has evaluated health and ecological risks independently by experts from different disciplines. Taking into considerations the recent concerns about endocrine disrupting chemicals and the progress of research in related areas, we integrated and assessed data on exposure and potential effects in humans and wildlife. Comparisons were made for organ concentrations, body burdens of several organochlorine compounds (OCs), metabolic capacities between humans and various wildlife. When we integrate the knowledge on effects and exposure in humans and in wildlife, new insights were suggested about similarities and/or differences in potential effects among various human populations living on different foods and having different body burdens. Combining existing information with emerging knowledge of mechanisms of actions on endocrine disrupting chemicals after exposure to above chemicals during early developmental stages will further elucidate potential risks from exposure to those chemicals

  10. Application of an integrated risk management system for improved maintenance in industrial plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.T.; Vinod, G.; Balos, D. [Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies, Stuttgart (Germany); Stanojevic, P. [NIS - Petroleum Industry of Serbia, Novi Sad (Serbia)

    2007-06-15

    The paper presents the application of the Integrated Risk Management System (iRiS) and its application to the areas of Risk Based Inspection (RBI), Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) and Health, Safety and Environment (HSE). The web-based system integrates also the aspects of risk management related to data acquisition and management and interactive reporting and controlled use of single parts of the system by various individual users and/or user levels. A complementing part of the system is a tool for project management including the documentation and activity management, as well as scheduling and e-education and e-training. The complementing parts of the system are the CMMS part (maintenance management), the extension of HSE to HSSE (including the 'security' aspects and providing links to the disaster management system) and further interfacing towards general management system and process modeling and management systems. Experiences from the applications of system in Hungary (at over 60 units) and in Serbia, for several refineries and further units in upstream and downstream, are presented in the paper. (orig.)

  11. Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

    2013-04-01

    Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is

  12. Systematic Review: Concept and Tool Development with Application in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Systematic Review: Concept and tool development with application to the National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Processes. There is growing interest within the environmental health community to incorporate systematic review m...

  13. An Integrated Risk Framework for Gigawatt-scale Deployments of Renewable Energy: The U.S. Wind Energy Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ram, B. [Energetics, Inc., Columbia, MD (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Assessing the potential environmental and human effects of deploying renewable wind energy requires a new way of evaluating potential environmental and human impacts. This paper explores an integrated risk framework for renewable wind energy siting decisionmaking.

  14. An integral approach to the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarzblat, M.; Arellano, J.

    1987-01-01

    In this chapter some of the work developed at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas in the area of probabilistic risk analysis are presented. In this area, work has been basically focused in the following directions: development and implementation of methods, and applications to real systems. The first part of this paper describes the area of methods development and implementation, presenting an integrated package of computer programs for fault tree analysis. In the second part some of the most important applications developed for real systems are presented. (author)

  15. Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management - 12097

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pentz, David L.; Stoll, Ralph H.; Greeves, John T. [Predicus LLC, Issaquah, WA 98027 (United States); Miller, R. Ian [GoldSim Technology Group, LLC, Issaquah, WA 98027 (United States); Nutt, W. Mark [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation's nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM 'owns' a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors. Each contaminated building, land area and waste stream is tracked from cradle to grave, and all of the linkages affecting different waste streams are captured. The progression of the activities is fully dynamic, reflecting DOE-EM's prioritization approaches, precedence requirements, available funding, and the consequences of risks and uncertainties. The top level of PRISM is the end-user interface that allows rapid evaluation of alternative scenarios and viewing the results in a variety of useful ways. PRISM is a fully probabilistic model, allowing the user to specify uncertainties in input data (such as the magnitude of an existing groundwater plume, or the total cost to complete a planned activity) as well as specific risk events that might occur. PRISM is based on the GoldSim software

  16. Systamatic approach to integration of a human reliability analysis into a NPP probabalistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, J.R.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter describes the human reliability analysis tasks which were employed in the evaluation of the overall probability of an internal flood sequence and its consequences in terms of disabling vulnerable risk significant equipment. Topics considered include the problem familiarization process, the identification and classification of key human interactions, a human interaction review of potential initiators, a maintenance and operations review, human interaction identification, quantification model selection, the definition of operator-induced sequences, the quantification of specific human interactions, skill- and rule-based interactions, knowledge-based interactions, and the incorporation of human interaction-related events into the event tree structure. It is concluded that an integrated approach to the analysis of human interaction within the context of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is feasible

  17. On the Value of Monitoring Information for the Structural Integrity and Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thöns, Sebastian

    2018-01-01

    facilitates the assessment of the value of information associated with SHM. The principal approach for the quantification of the value of SHM is formulated by modeling the fundamental decision of performing SHM or not in conjunction with their expected utilities. The expected utilities are calculated....... The calculation of the expected utilities necessitates a comprehensive and rigorous modeling, which is introduced close to the original formulations and for which analysis characteristics and simplifications are described and derived. The framework provides the basis for the optimization of the structural risk......This article introduces an approach and framework for the quantification of the value of structural health monitoring (SHM) in the context of the structural risk and integrity management for systems.The quantification of the value of SHM builds upon the Bayesian decision and utility theory, which...

  18. Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emerek, Ruth

    2004-01-01

    Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration......Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration...

  19. Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

  20. Integrated environmental risk assessment for petroleum-contaminated sites - a North American case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Z.; Huang, G.H.; Chakma, A.

    1998-01-01

    In this study, an integrated risk assessment approach is proposed for evaluating environmental risks derived from petroleum-contaminated sites. The proposed approach is composed of (i) a hydrocarbon spill screening model (HSSM) which is used for simulating immiscible flow of released hydrocarbons in vadose zone, formation of lens in capillary fringe, dissolution of pollutants at water table, and transport of the pollutants to receptors, and (ii) a fuzzy relation analysis (FRA) model which is developed for comprehensively evaluating risks caused by a number of pollutants with different impact characteristics, based on the HSSM results. This hybrid HSSM-FRA approach was applied to a case study for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada, where soil and groundwater was contaminated by industrial wastes containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEXs). The results suggest that the HSSM-FRA can provide insight into the potential risk to the receptor of concern downward the aquifer and can serve as a basis for further remediation-related decision analysis. (author)

  1. Proposal for an integrated risk informed decision making process for German regulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Einarsson, Svante; Wielenberg, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decisions for German nuclear power plants (NPP) have traditionally been based on deterministic safety analyses. However, the IRRS-Mission of IAEA in 2008 proposed, among others, in 'Suggestion 25' to develop a national policy 'on the use of risk insights in the regulatory framework and decision making'. Consequently, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) launched a project with the goal of developing a proposal for a uniform federal approach on using risk information in decision making. To this end, the state of the application of probabilistic and risk informed methods has been investigated both on an international and a national level. On the international level, the concept of Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making (IRIDM) has been defined in INSAG-25. It is a structured process, in which all knowledge and requirements relevant to the issue in question are to be considered in a decision. Such knowledge and other requirements are e.g. deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses, regulatory requirements and other applicable findings (including cost-benefit analyses). The IRIDM concept according to INSAG-25 is the cornerstone of the proposal for a uniform federal German approach for IRIDM in the regulatory framework for nuclear installations in Germany. (orig.)

  2. Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Peter; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Ilbery, Brian; Jeger, Mike; Jones, Glyn; Little, Ruth; MacLeod, Alan; Parker, Steve; Pautasso, Marco; Pietravalle, Stephane; Maye, Damian

    2011-01-01

    Plant diseases threaten both food security and the botanical diversity of natural ecosystems. Substantial research effort is focused on pathogen detection and control, with detailed risk management available for many plant diseases. Risk can be assessed using analytical techniques that account for disease pressure both spatially and temporally. We suggest that such technical assessments of disease risk may not provide an adequate guide to the strategies undertaken by growers and government to manage plant disease. Instead, risk-management strategies need to account more fully for intuitive and normative responses that act to balance conflicting interests between stakeholder organizations concerned with plant diseases within the managed and natural environments. Modes of effective engagement between policy makers and stakeholders are explored in the paper, together with an assessment of such engagement in two case studies of contemporary non-indigenous diseases in one food and in one non-food sector. Finally, a model is proposed for greater integration of stakeholders in policy decisions. PMID:21624923

  3. Applying risk insights in US NRC reviews of integral pressurized water reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caruso, M.A.; Hilsmeier, T.; Kevern, T.A.

    2012-01-01

    In its Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) on COMGBJ-10-0004/COMGEA-10-0001, 'Use of Risk Insights to Enhance Safety Focus of Small Modular Reactor Reviews,' dated August 31, 2010 (ML102510405), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) directed the NRC staff to more fully integrate the use of risk insights into pre-application activities and the review of small modular reactor (SMR) applications with near-term focus on integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) designs. The Commission's objective is to align the review focus and resources with the risk-significant systems, structures, and components (SSCs) and other aspects of the design, that contribute most to safety in order to enhance the efficiency of the review process while still enabling a decision of reasonable assurance of the design's safety. The staff was directed to develop a design-specific, risk-informed review plan for each SMR to address pre-application and application review activities. The NRC staff submitted a response to the Commission which describes its approach for (1) using risk insights, consistent with current regulatory requirements, to assign SSCs to one of a limited set of graded categories, and (2) adjusting the scope and depth of current review plans--where possible--consistent with regulatory requirements and consistent with the applicable graded category. Because the staff's review constitutes an independent audit of the application, the staff may emphasize or de-emphasize particular aspects of its review guidance (i.e., Standard Review Plan), as appropriate and consistent with regulatory requirements, for the application being reviewed. The staff may propose justifications for not performing certain sections of the reviews called for by the applicable review plan. Examples of acceptable variations in the scope of a review can include reduced emphasis on SSC attributes such as reliability, availability, or functional performance when the SSC will be in the scope of a program

  4. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  5. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokan, S.

    2009-01-01

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  6. Preliminary risk assessment of the Integral Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCarroll, Kellen R.; Lee, John C.; Manera, Annalisa; Memmott, Matthew J.; Ferroni, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    The Integral, Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) concept seeks to significantly increase nuclear power plant safety. The project implements a safety-by-design philosophy, eliminating several initiating events and providing novel, passive safety systems at the conceptual phase. Pursuit of unparalleled safety employs an integrated development process linking design with deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses. Unique aspects of the I 2 S-LWR concept and design process present challenges to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), particularly regarding overall flexibility, auditability and resolution of results. Useful approaches to initiating events and conditional failures are presented. To exemplify the risk-informed design process using PRA, a trade-off study of two safety system configurations is presented. Although further optimization is required, preliminary results indicate that the I 2 S-LWR can achieve a core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events less than 1.01 × 10 −8 /ry, including reactor vessel ruptures. Containment bypass frequency due to primary heat exchanger rupture is found to be comparable to non-vessel rupture CDF.

  7. Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

  8. Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

    1984-10-01

    A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

  9. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), Version 2.5: Reference manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1991-03-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.5 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 2.5 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 7 refs., 348 figs

  10. A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk

  11. Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-01-01

    On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

  12. Integrating Social Services and Home-Based Primary Care for High-Risk Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinglass, Joe; Norman, Greg; Golden, Robyn L; Muramatsu, Naoko; Gelder, Michael; Cornwell, Thomas

    2018-04-01

    There is a consensus that our current hospital-intensive approach to care is deeply flawed. This review article describes the research evidence for developing a better system of care for high-cost, high-risk patients. It reviews the evidence that home-centered care and integration of health care with social services are the cornerstones of a more humane and efficient system. The article describes the strengths and weaknesses of research evaluating the effects of social services in addressing social determinants of health, and how social support is critical to successful acute care transition programs. It reviews the history of incorporating social services into care management, and the prospects that recent payment reforms and regulatory initiatives can succeed in stimulating the financial integration of social services into new care coordination initiatives. The article reviews the literature on home-based primary care for the chronically ill and disabled, and suggests that it is the emergence of this care modality that holds the greatest promise for delivery system reform. In the hope of stimulating further discussion and debate, the authors summarize existing viewpoints on how a home-centered system, which integrates social and medical services, might emerge in the next few years.

  13. Integrate life-cycle assessment and risk analysis results, not methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin D; Wender, Ben A; Seager, Thomas P; Kennedy, Alan J; Keisler, Jeffrey M

    2017-08-04

    Two analytic perspectives on environmental assessment dominate environmental policy and decision-making: risk analysis (RA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA). RA focuses on management of a toxicological hazard in a specific exposure scenario, while LCA seeks a holistic estimation of impacts of thousands of substances across multiple media, including non-toxicological and non-chemically deleterious effects. While recommendations to integrate the two approaches have remained a consistent feature of environmental scholarship for at least 15 years, the current perception is that progress is slow largely because of practical obstacles, such as a lack of data, rather than insurmountable theoretical difficulties. Nonetheless, the emergence of nanotechnology presents a serious challenge to both perspectives. Because the pace of nanomaterial innovation far outstrips acquisition of environmentally relevant data, it is now clear that a further integration of RA and LCA based on dataset completion will remain futile. In fact, the two approaches are suited for different purposes and answer different questions. A more pragmatic approach to providing better guidance to decision-makers is to apply the two methods in parallel, integrating only after obtaining separate results.

  14. Analysis of integrity and risk for onshore pipelines; Analise de integridade e risco para dutos onshore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Marco Aurelio [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The increasing expansion of the oil and gas industry in Brazil, the current legal requirements relating to security, health and environment in the industrial installations, is necessary that the companies, responsible by the operation of pipelines for oil and gas transport, adopt efficient techniques to assure the operational continuity of these of trustworthy form and insurance. To fulfill this important function it is important that the companies implement a management program to control and register the integrity of the pipelines during the all operational life cycle. Inside of this context of management of the integrity of pipelines, the DNV developed the software ORBIT Pipeline with the intention to serve as an important tool to monitor the technique and security condition of the pipeline, to define the frequency and content technician of the inspection program and to recommend the work of intervention or repair in pipeline when necessary. Additionally to these activities that are carried through directly in the ORBIT Pipeline, also an evaluation of the activity of third part and the land/soil movement is made inside of the systematic for analysis of integrity and risk for onshore pipelines performed by DNV. (author)

  15. The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions

  16. [Integrity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Rodríguez, Rafael Ángel

    2014-01-01

    To say that someone possesses integrity is to claim that that person is almost predictable about responses to specific situations, that he or she can prudentially judge and to act correctly. There is a closed interrelationship between integrity and autonomy, and the autonomy rests on the deeper moral claim of all humans to integrity of the person. Integrity has two senses of significance for medical ethic: one sense refers to the integrity of the person in the bodily, psychosocial and intellectual elements; and in the second sense, the integrity is the virtue. Another facet of integrity of the person is la integrity of values we cherish and espouse. The physician must be a person of integrity if the integrity of the patient is to be safeguarded. The autonomy has reduced the violations in the past, but the character and virtues of the physician are the ultimate safeguard of autonomy of patient. A field very important in medicine is the scientific research. It is the character of the investigator that determines the moral quality of research. The problem arises when legitimate self-interests are replaced by selfish, particularly when human subjects are involved. The final safeguard of moral quality of research is the character and conscience of the investigator. Teaching must be relevant in the scientific field, but the most effective way to teach virtue ethics is through the example of the a respected scientist.

  17. Integration of social perception in flash flood risk management for resilience improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez-Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina-Cantos, Jorge

    2015-04-01

    Spain is, behind Switzerland, the second most mountainous country in Europe, which determines that after the occurrence of heavy or intense rainfall events, a fast hydrological response takes place due to steep slopes and strong hydrological connectivity. As a result, flash floods are, among natural hazards, the main social risk in Spain. In fact, they have provoked some of the greatest natural disasters in recent history of the country (e.g. Yebra and Almoguera in 1995, Biescas in 1996 or Badajoz in 1997, which totalized more than 200 deceased in the last decades). This work is focused on the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which we have been studying flash floods, under the consideration of different perspectives and using different approaches, for the past 20 years; and in which the regional government has recently approved the Civil Protection Plan.In this research, we examine social perception of flash floodsthrough surveys and interviews; one turn previous to the communication plan and other one after this dissemination activities to population. To this end, the individual and groupal differences were explored, by taking into account socio-demographic variables. In addition, we have considered psychological and material dimensions of vulnerability associated to flood risk, as well as to the emotional dimension through the consideration of psyco-environmental variables.Thus, this research aims to identify what aspects of the social perception differs from scientific/technical knowledge acquired which, in turn, may decrease the efficiency of a risk mitigation plan or even determine its failure. To minimize this lack of harmony, and at the same time to increase awareness of population, we propose a risk communication plan to improve preparedness of the community. To this end, we propose an approach in which messages reach the population quickly and in an understandable way. In this regard, risk communication is based on the integration of suitable

  18. Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

    OpenAIRE

    TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...

  19. Stochastic risk-averse coordinated scheduling of grid integrated energy storage units in transmission constrained wind-thermal systems within a conditional value-at-risk framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemmati, Reza; Saboori, Hedayat; Saboori, Saeid

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, wind power resources have been integrated in the power systems increasingly. Besides confirmed benefits, utilization of large share of this volatile source in power generation portfolio has been faced system operators with new challenges in terms of uncertainty management. It is proved that energy storage systems are capable to handle projected uncertainty concerns. Risk-neutral methods have been proposed in the previous literature to schedule storage units considering wind resources uncertainty. Ignoring risk of the cost distributions with non-desirable properties may result in experiencing high costs in some unfavorable scenarios with high probability. In order to control the risk of the operator decisions, this paper proposes a new risk-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to make optimal decisions on energy storage and thermal units in a transmission constrained hybrid wind-thermal power system. Risk-aversion procedure is explicitly formulated using the conditional value-at-risk measure, because of possessing distinguished features compared to the other risk measures. The proposed model is a mixed integer linear programming considering transmission network, thermal unit dynamics, and storage devices constraints. The simulations results demonstrate that taking the risk of the problem into account will affect scheduling decisions considerably depend on the level of the risk-aversion. - Highlights: • Risk of the operation decisions is handled by using risk-averse programming. • Conditional value-at-risk is used as risk measure. • Optimal risk level is obtained based on the cost/benefit analysis. • The proposed model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming. • The unit commitment is integrated with ESSs and wind power penetration.

  20. Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

    2014-05-01

    While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

  1. Conditional economic incentives for reducing HIV risk behaviors: integration of psychology and behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Gálarraga, Omar

    2013-09-01

    This article reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories and behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  3. Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

    2014-01-01

    Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

  4. Common variation in the autism risk gene CNTNAP2, brain structural connectivity and multisensory speech integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Lars A; Del Bene, Victor A; Molholm, Sophie; Jae Woo, Young; Andrade, Gizely N; Abrahams, Brett S; Foxe, John J

    2017-11-01

    Three lines of evidence motivated this study. 1) CNTNAP2 variation is associated with autism risk and speech-language development. 2) CNTNAP2 variations are associated with differences in white matter (WM) tracts comprising the speech-language circuitry. 3) Children with autism show impairment in multisensory speech perception. Here, we asked whether an autism risk-associated CNTNAP2 single nucleotide polymorphism in neurotypical adults was associated with multisensory speech perception performance, and whether such a genotype-phenotype association was mediated through white matter tract integrity in speech-language circuitry. Risk genotype at rs7794745 was associated with decreased benefit from visual speech and lower fractional anisotropy (FA) in several WM tracts (right precentral gyrus, left anterior corona radiata, right retrolenticular internal capsule). These structural connectivity differences were found to mediate the effect of genotype on audiovisual speech perception, shedding light on possible pathogenic pathways in autism and biological sources of inter-individual variation in audiovisual speech processing in neurotypicals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Financial risk management for new technology integration in energy planning under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Sajjad; Elsholkami, Mohamed; Elkamel, Ali; Du, Juan; Ydstie, Erik B.; Douglas, Peter L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Financial risk associated with over or underproduction of electricity is studied. • A two-stage stochastic model that considers parameter uncertainties is developed. • The model was applied to a real case to meet projected electricity demand of a fleet of generating stations. • Incorporation of financial risk resulted in an increase in electricity cost. • The selection of technologies was the same as that obtained from a deterministic model. - Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology to include financial risk management in the framework of two-stage stochastic programming for energy planning under uncertainties in demand and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters that have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. This was applied to a case study focusing on planning the capacity supply to meet the projected electricity demand for the fleet of electricity generation stations owned and operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The objective of the proposed mathematical model is to minimize cost subject to environmental constraints. The case study is investigated by considering only existing technologies and also by considering the integration of new technologies that help achieve stricter carbon reduction requirements

  6. Online communication among adolescents: an integrated model of its attraction, opportunities, and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkenburg, Patti M; Peter, Jochen

    2011-02-01

    Adolescents far outnumber adults in their use of e-communication technologies, such as instant messaging and social network sites. In this article, we present an integrative model that helps us to understand both the appeal of these technologies and their risks and opportunities for the psychosocial development of adolescents. We first outline how the three features (anonymity, asynchronicity, and accessibility) of online communication stimulate controllability of online self-presentation and self-disclosure among adolescents. We then review research on the risks and opportunities of online self-presentation and self-disclosure for the three components of adolescents' psychosocial development, including identity (self-unity, self-esteem), intimacy (relationship formation, friendship quality, cyberbullying), and sexuality (sexual self-exploration, unwanted sexual solicitation). Existing research suggests several opportunities of online communication, such as enhanced self-esteem, relationship formation, friendship quality, and sexual self-exploration. It also yields evidence of several risks, including cyberbullying and unwanted sexual solicitation. We discuss the shortcomings of existing research, the possibilities for future research, and the implications for educators and health care professionals. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Safety, reliability, risk management and human factors: an integrated engineering approach applied to nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Silva, Eliane Magalhaes Pereira da; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da; Reis, Sergio Carneiro dos [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)], e-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, e-mail: silvaem@cdtn.br, e-mail: aclc@cdtn.br, e-mail: reissc@cdtn.br

    2009-07-01

    Nuclear energy has an important engineering legacy to share with the conventional industry. Much of the development of the tools related to safety, reliability, risk management, and human factors are associated with nuclear plant processes, mainly because the public concern about nuclear power generation. Despite the close association between these subjects, there are some important different approaches. The reliability engineering approach uses several techniques to minimize the component failures that cause the failure of the complex systems. These techniques include, for instance, redundancy, diversity, standby sparing, safety factors, and reliability centered maintenance. On the other hand system safety is primarily concerned with hazard management, that is, the identification, evaluation and control of hazards. Rather than just look at failure rates or engineering strengths, system safety would examine the interactions among system components. The events that cause accidents may be complex combinations of component failures, faulty maintenance, design errors, human actions, or actuation of instrumentation and control. Then, system safety deals with a broader spectrum of risk management, including: ergonomics, legal requirements, quality control, public acceptance, political considerations, and many other non-technical influences. Taking care of these subjects individually can compromise the completeness of the analysis and the measures associated with both risk reduction, and safety and reliability increasing. Analyzing together the engineering systems and controls of a nuclear facility, their management systems and operational procedures, and the human factors engineering, many benefits can be realized. This paper proposes an integration of these issues based on the application of systems theory. (author)

  8. Bridging the gaps: An early integrated support collaborative for at risk mothers in rural Maine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Jennifer; Withers, Marjorie; Konrad, Shelley Cohen; Buterbaugh, Carry; Spence, RuthAnne

    2015-01-01

    The antecedents that contribute to health disparities in maternal child health populations begin before birth and extend into the early prenatal and gestational growth periods. Mothers and infants living in rural poverty in particular are at considerable risk for problems associated with reproductive health, including pregnancy complications and premature births. The aim of this manuscript is thus two-fold, to describe the epidemiologic makeup of the community and the intervention model of the Community Caring Collaborative. Innovative models of early-integrated care for high-risk mothers and children are showing promise for long-term outcomes. They foster environments that enable mothers to trust health systems while maintaining a workforce of high functioning health workers who understand the mechanisms that underpin maternal and child health disparities. The Community Caring Collaborative in Washington County, Maine developed one such model that has made inroads in bridging such gaps. This manuscript explicates a case study of how the Community Caring Collaborative came into being and why it established the Bridging model of comprehensive care. The focus of this manuscript is thus two-fold, the community and the intervention model. The "bridging model" develops trust-based relationships between high-risk mothers with the health system and its multiple resources. Community members with advanced training provide the support and care linkages that are critical for family success. Innovative models of collaborative care impact the health of vulnerable mothers and their children working toward a marked decrease in health related disparities.

  9. Safety, reliability, risk management and human factors: an integrated engineering approach applied to nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Silva, Eliane Magalhaes Pereira da; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da; Reis, Sergio Carneiro dos

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy has an important engineering legacy to share with the conventional industry. Much of the development of the tools related to safety, reliability, risk management, and human factors are associated with nuclear plant processes, mainly because the public concern about nuclear power generation. Despite the close association between these subjects, there are some important different approaches. The reliability engineering approach uses several techniques to minimize the component failures that cause the failure of the complex systems. These techniques include, for instance, redundancy, diversity, standby sparing, safety factors, and reliability centered maintenance. On the other hand system safety is primarily concerned with hazard management, that is, the identification, evaluation and control of hazards. Rather than just look at failure rates or engineering strengths, system safety would examine the interactions among system components. The events that cause accidents may be complex combinations of component failures, faulty maintenance, design errors, human actions, or actuation of instrumentation and control. Then, system safety deals with a broader spectrum of risk management, including: ergonomics, legal requirements, quality control, public acceptance, political considerations, and many other non-technical influences. Taking care of these subjects individually can compromise the completeness of the analysis and the measures associated with both risk reduction, and safety and reliability increasing. Analyzing together the engineering systems and controls of a nuclear facility, their management systems and operational procedures, and the human factors engineering, many benefits can be realized. This paper proposes an integration of these issues based on the application of systems theory. (author)

  10. Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests. A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

  11. Integration of OHS into Risk Management in an Open-Pit Mining Project in Quebec (Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Badri

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite undeniable progress, the mining industry remains the scene of serious accidents revealing disregard for occupational health and safety (OHS and leaving open the debate regarding the safety of its employees. The San José mine last collapse near Copiapó, Chile on 5 August 2010 and the 69-day rescue operation that followed in order to save 33 miners trapped underground show the serious consequences of neglecting worker health and safety. The aim of this study was to validate a new approach to integrating OHS into risk management in the context of a new open-pit mining project in Quebec, based on analysis of incident and accident reports, semi-structured interviews, questionnaires and collaborative field observations. We propose a new concept, called hazard concentration, based on the number of hazards and their influence. This concept represents the weighted fraction of each category of hazards related to an undesirable event. The weight of each category of hazards is calculated by AHP, a multicriteria method. The proposed approach included the creation of an OHS database for facilitating expert risk management. Reinforcing effects between hazard categories were identified and all potential risks were prioritized. The results provided the company with a rational basis for choosing a suitable accident prevention strategy for its operational activities.

  12. Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

    2017-11-06

    The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

  13. A Comparison Study on the Integrated Risk Estimation for Various Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, J. J.; Kim, S. H.; Jeong, J. T.; Min, K. R.; Kim, K. Y.

    2007-06-01

    -based questionnaire method to collect the subjective opinions of the expert groups, while economic, health, and environmental aspects are dealt with by the objective information obtained from the literatures available, assessment results, or a calculation output. In the third phase of nuclear research and development program (2005-2006), the system and databases for the integrated risk comparison for various power systems have been established by combining the methodologies introduced in the second phase of the nuclear research and' development program

  14. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  15. Integration of a radiation biomarker into modeling of thyroid carcinogenesis and post-Chernobyl risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Jan Christian; Meckbach, Reinhard; Eidemüller, Markus; Selmansberger, Martin; Unger, Kristian; Shpak, Viktor; Blettner, Maria; Zitzelsberger, Horst; Jacob, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Strong evidence for the statistical association between radiation exposure and disease has been produced for thyroid cancer by epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl accident. However, limitations of the epidemiological approach in order to explore health risks especially at low doses of radiation appear obvious. Statistical fluctuations due to small case numbers dominate the uncertainty of risk estimates. Molecular radiation markers have been searched extensively to separate radiation-induced cancer cases from sporadic cases. The overexpression of the CLIP2 gene is the most promising of these markers. It was found in the majority of papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from young patients included in the Chernobyl tissue bank. Motivated by the CLIP2 findings we propose a mechanistic model which describes PTC development as a sequence of rate-limiting events in two distinct paths of CLIP2-associated and multistage carcinogenesis. It integrates molecular measurements of the dichotomous CLIP2 marker from 141 patients into the epidemiological risk analysis for about 13 000 subjects from the Ukrainian-American cohort which were exposed below age 19 years and were put under enhanced medical surveillance since 1998. For the first time, a radiation risk has been estimated solely from marker measurements. Cross checking with epidemiological estimates and model validation suggests that CLIP2 is a marker of high precision. CLIP2 leaves an imprint in the epidemiological incidence data which is typical for a driver gene. With the mechanistic model, we explore the impact of radiation on the molecular landscape of PTC. The model constitutes a unique interface between molecular biology and radiation epidemiology. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  16. Ethical and social aspects of integral risk assessment in reference to nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, D.

    1991-01-01

    As a rule, the risks connected with the use of nuclear energy are assessed as isolated factors. Sterotypically the economic benefits and residual risks are weighed against one another and assessed differently. Within the framework of an integral understanding of the problem, the significance of nuclear energy should be considered to be of prime priority when it comes to the serious problems which humanity is confronted with, i.e.: - ecological stability, - climatic stability, - keeping peace, - prevention of large-scale epidemics, - conservation of our resources for the generations to come, - making existence fit for human beings. The author comes to the conclusion that the risks which would result from dispensing with nuclear energy world-wide are a millionfold greater than are the risks which would result from extending the use of nuclear energy world-wide, not only as regards the loss of human lives, but also as regards the amount of land which might become uninhabitable long-term. The author advocates employing ethical arguments which are based on ethical goals and are rational, economical and promise to show the best way of fulfilling mutual ehtical goals satisfactorily in an objective way. The author sees problems as regards the distortion of truth and its misuse by cynics, opportunists, etc. Social aspects must be subjected to ethical scrutiny as well. On the whole it is important to overcome deficits in the communication between technically and scientifically oriented people and those who view it as their task to reflect upon the meaning behind the issue at hand (clergymen, journalists, politicians, etc.). (orig./HSCH) [de

  17. Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Andressa Magalhães; Tsukamoto, Rosangela; Lopes, Camila Takáo; Silva, Rita de Cassia Gengo E

    2017-06-05

    to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation. identificar evidências na literatura acerca de possíveis fatores de risco do diagnóstico risco de glicemia instável para pessoas com diabetes mellitus tipo 2 e compará-los com os fatores de risco descritos pela NANDA International . revisão integrativa norteada pela pergunta: quais são os fatores de risco de glicemia instável em pessoas com diabetes mellitus tipo 2? Incluíram-se estudos primários cujos desfechos eram variações nos níveis glicêmicos, publicados em inglês, português ou espanhol no PubMed ou CINAHL entre 2010 e 2015. observou

  18. Integration of a Radiosensitivity Molecular Signature Into the Assessment of Local Recurrence Risk in Breast Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres-Roca, Javier F.; Fulp, William J.; Caudell, Jimmy J.; Servant, Nicolas; Bollet, Marc A.; Vijver, Marc van de; Naghavi, Arash O.; Harris, Eleanor E.; Eschrich, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Recently, we developed radiosensitivity (RSI), a clinically validated molecular signature that estimates tumor radiosensitivity. In the present study, we tested whether integrating RSI with the molecular subtype refines the classification of local recurrence (LR) risk in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: RSI and molecular subtype were evaluated in 343 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy that included whole-breast radiation therapy with or without a tumor bed boost (dose range 45-72 Gy). The follow-up period for patients without recurrence was 10 years. The clinical endpoint was LR-free survival. Results: Although RSI did not uniformly predict for LR across the entire cohort, combining RSI and the molecular subtype identified a subpopulation with an increased risk of LR: triple negative (TN) and radioresistant (reference TN-radioresistant, hazard ratio [HR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.92, P=.02). TN patients who were RSI-sensitive/intermediate had LR rates similar to those of luminal (LUM) patients (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.47-1.57, P=.63). On multivariate analysis, combined RSI and molecular subtype (P=.004) and age (P=.001) were the most significant predictors of LR. In contrast, integrating RSI into the LUM subtype did not identify additional risk groups. We hypothesized that radiation dose escalation was affecting radioresistance in the LUM subtype and serving as a confounder. An increased radiation dose decreased LR only in the luminal-resistant (LUM-R) subset (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.05-0.98, P=.03). On multivariate analysis, the radiation dose was an independent variable only in the LUMA/B-RR subset (HR 0.025, 95% CI 0.001-0.946, P=.046), along with age (P=.008), T stage (P=.004), and chemotherapy (P=.008). Conclusions: The combined molecular subtype–RSI identified a novel molecular subpopulation (TN and radioresistant) with an increased risk of LR after breast-conserving therapy. We propose that the combination of RSI and

  19. Integration of a Radiosensitivity Molecular Signature Into the Assessment of Local Recurrence Risk in Breast Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres-Roca, Javier F., E-mail: javier.torresroca@moffitt.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Department of Chemical Biology and Molecular Medicine, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Fulp, William J. [Department of Bioinformatics, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Caudell, Jimmy J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Servant, Nicolas [Institut Curie, INSERM U900, Paris (France); Mines ParisTech, Paris (France); Bollet, Marc A. [Institut Curie, INSERM U900, Paris (France); Vijver, Marc van de [Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Naghavi, Arash O. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States); Harris, Eleanor E. [East Carolina University, Greensborough, North Carolina (United States); Eschrich, Steven A. [Department of Bioinformatics, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Purpose: Recently, we developed radiosensitivity (RSI), a clinically validated molecular signature that estimates tumor radiosensitivity. In the present study, we tested whether integrating RSI with the molecular subtype refines the classification of local recurrence (LR) risk in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: RSI and molecular subtype were evaluated in 343 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy that included whole-breast radiation therapy with or without a tumor bed boost (dose range 45-72 Gy). The follow-up period for patients without recurrence was 10 years. The clinical endpoint was LR-free survival. Results: Although RSI did not uniformly predict for LR across the entire cohort, combining RSI and the molecular subtype identified a subpopulation with an increased risk of LR: triple negative (TN) and radioresistant (reference TN-radioresistant, hazard ratio [HR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.92, P=.02). TN patients who were RSI-sensitive/intermediate had LR rates similar to those of luminal (LUM) patients (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.47-1.57, P=.63). On multivariate analysis, combined RSI and molecular subtype (P=.004) and age (P=.001) were the most significant predictors of LR. In contrast, integrating RSI into the LUM subtype did not identify additional risk groups. We hypothesized that radiation dose escalation was affecting radioresistance in the LUM subtype and serving as a confounder. An increased radiation dose decreased LR only in the luminal-resistant (LUM-R) subset (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.05-0.98, P=.03). On multivariate analysis, the radiation dose was an independent variable only in the LUMA/B-RR subset (HR 0.025, 95% CI 0.001-0.946, P=.046), along with age (P=.008), T stage (P=.004), and chemotherapy (P=.008). Conclusions: The combined molecular subtype–RSI identified a novel molecular subpopulation (TN and radioresistant) with an increased risk of LR after breast-conserving therapy. We propose that the combination of RSI and

  20. The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting

  1. The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G.

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting

  2. Risk Assessment of Structural Integrity of Transportation Casks after Extended Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarra, Luis; Medina, Ricardo; Yang, Haori

    2018-03-23

    This study assessed the risk of loss of structural integrity of transportation casks and fuel cladding after extended storage. Although it is known that fuel rods discharged from NPPs have a small percentage of rod cladding defects, the behavior of fuel cladding and the structural elements of assemblies during transportation after long-term storage is not well understood. If the fuel degrades during extended storage, it could be susceptible to damage from vibration and impact loads during transport operations, releasing fission-product gases into the canister or the cask interior (NWTRB 2010). Degradation of cladding may occur due to mechanisms associated with hydrogen embrittlement, delayed hydride cracking, low temperature creep, and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) that may affect fuel cladding and canister components after extended storage of hundreds of years. Over extended periods at low temperatures, these mechanisms affect the ductility, strength, and fracture toughness of the fuel cladding, which becomes brittle. For transportation purposes, the fuel may be transferred from storage to shipping casks, or dual-purpose casks may be used for storage and transportation. Currently, most of the transportation casks will be the former case. A risk assessment evaluation is conducted based on results from experimental tests and simulations with advanced numerical models. A novel contribution of this study is the evaluation of the combined effect of component aging and vibration/impact loads in transportation scenarios. The expected levels of deterioration will be obtained from previous and current studies on the effect of aging on fuel and cask components. The emphasis of the study is placed on the structural integrity of fuel cladding and canisters.

  3. Looking beyond borders: integrating best practices in benefit-risk analysis into the field of food and nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk

  4. Integrated approach for managing health risks at work--the role of occupational health nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinescu, Luiza G

    2007-02-01

    Currently, many organizations are using a department-centered approach to manage health risks at work. In such a model, segregated departments are providing employee benefits such as health insurance, workers' compensation, and short- and long-term disability or benefits addressing work-life issues. In recent years, a new model has emerged: health and productivity management (HPM). This is an employee-centered, integrated approach, designed to increase efficiency, reduce competition for scarce resources, and increase employee participation in prevention activities. Evidence suggests that corporations using integrated HPM programs achieve better health outcomes for their employees, with consequent increased productivity and decreased absenteeism. Occupational health nurses are well positioned to assume leadership roles in their organizations by coordinating efforts and programs across departments that offer health, wellness, and safety benefits. To assume their role as change agents to improve employees' health, nurses should start using the language of business more often by improving their communication skills, computer skills, and ability to quantify and articulate results of programs and services to senior management.

  5. Integrating Research to Reduce Risk and Gain the Benefits for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcbean, G. A.

    2015-12-01

    Across all countries there are challenges due to the increasing numbers of hazards creating disasters and impacting on people and property and limiting development. These impacts, in a relative sense relative to population and economy, are larger in developing countries and small island states. The issues of disaster risk reduction, sustainable development goals and climate change mitigation and adaptation are key global issues being addressed through international processes in 2015. Internationally coordinated research, through programs such as Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, Future Earth: Research for Global Sustainability and Health and Wellbeing in the Changing Urban Environment, needs to be supported and their research coordinated so the outputs are effective in policy development and can be used by all countries. A particular challenge is with regard to those extreme and relatively rare events that have huge impacts but societies are not yet effective in "making timely decisions and implementation of the hazard-associated preparedness measures to mitigate humanitarian and economic losses". The challenge for the scientific community is to work with stakeholder communities through a co-design, co-produce and co-deliver approach to enhance the relevance and effectiveness of our science.

  6. Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés, E-mail: andres@uhu.es

    2016-01-15

    In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation.

  7. Implementing a framework for integrating toxicokinetics into human health risk assessment for agrochemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Claire; Hays, Sean; McCoy, Alene T; McFadden, Lisa G; Aggarwal, Manoj; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Juberg, Daland R

    2016-03-01

    A strategic and comprehensive program in which toxicokinetic (TK) measurements are made for all agrochemicals undergoing toxicity testing (both new compounds and compounds already registered for use) is described. This approach provides the data to more accurately assess the toxicokinetics of agrochemicals and their metabolites in laboratory animals and humans. Having this knowledge provides the ability to conduct more insightful toxicity studies, refine and interpret exposure assessments and reduce uncertainty in risk assessments. By developing a better understanding of TK across species, including humans via in vitro metabolism studies, any differences across species in TK can be identified early and the most relevant species can be selected for toxicity tests. It also provides the ability to identify any non-linearities in TK as a function of dose, which in turn can be used to identify a kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD) and avoid dosing inappropriately outside of the kinetic linear range. Measuring TK in key life stages also helps to identify changes in ADME parameters from in utero to adults. A robust TK database can also be used to set internal concentration based "Reference Concentrations" and Biomonitoring Equivalents (BE), and support selection of Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF). All of these factors support the reduction of uncertainty throughout the entire risk assessment process. This paper outlines how a TK research strategy can be integrated into new agrochemical toxicity testing programs, together with a proposed Framework for future use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Current state of the construction of an integrated test facility for hydrogen risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, Young Su; Hong, Seong-Ho; Hong, Seong-Wan [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Experimental research on hydrogen as a combustible gas is important for an assessment of the integrity of a containment building under a severe accident. The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) is preparing a large-scaled test facility, called SPARC (SPray-Aerosol-Recombiner-Combustion), to estimate the hydrogen behavior such as the distribution, combustion and mitigation. This paper introduces the experimental research activity on hydrogen risk, which was presented at International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP) this year. The KAERI is preparing a test facility, called SPARC (SPray-Aerosol-Recombiner-Combustion test facility), for an assessment of the hydrogen risk. In the SPARC, hydrogen behavior such as mixing with steam and air, distribution, and combustion in the containment atmosphere will be observed. The SPARC consists of a pressure vessel with a 9.5 m height and 3.4 m in diameter and the operating system to control the thermal hydraulic conditions up to 1.5 MPa at 453 K in a vessel. The temperature, pressure, and gas concentration at various locations will be measured to estimate the atmospheric behavior in a vessel. To install the SPARC, an experimental building, called LIFE (Laboratory for Innovative mitigation of threats from Fission products and Explosion), was constructed at the KAERI site. LIFE has an area of 480 m''2 and height of 18.6 m, and it was designed by considering the experimental safety and specification of a large-sized test facility.

  9. Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés

    2016-01-01

    In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation

  10. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  11. Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerst, Michael D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Borsuk, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    The potential for climate catastrophes, represented by 'fat-tailed' distributions on consequences, has attracted much attention recently. To date, however, most integrated assessment models have either been largely deterministic or deterministic with ex-post sensitivity analysis. The conclusions of such analyses are likely to differ from those employing models that accurately characterize society's joint preferences concerning time and risk, especially when distributions are fat-tailed. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted from Nordhaus's DICE model, we show that failing to accurately account for risk can lead to substantial underestimation of the net benefits of greenhouse gas abatement. A robust finding of our analysis is that a lenient 'policy ramp' emissions reduction strategy is preferable over a more aggressive strategy-such as that advocated by the Stern Review-only if the model does not account for uncertainty about the climate system, the carbon cycle and economic damages, and specifies a consumption discount rate that is counterfactually higher than the historical global weighted average cost of capital of 4.0%. In the debate over uncertainty and time discounting, our results imply that what matters most in climate change assessment is the inclusion and particular specification of uncertainty rather than the precise choice of discount rate.

  12. Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

  13. Aging and risk taking: toward an integration of cognitive, emotional, and neurobiological perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao R

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Robin Shao,1,2 Tatia MC Lee1–31Laboratory of Neuropsychology, 2Laboratory of Social Cognitive Affective Neuroscience, 3The State Key Laboratory of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong KongAbstract: In this article, we characterize the relationship between natural aging and risky decision making through an integration of cognitive, emotional, and neurobiological theories on the effects of natural aging. Based on the existing evidence, we propose that the positivity emotional bias in elderly adults steers them away from taking high risks and toward more conservative approaches during decision making as part of their positive emotional regulatory strategies. However, aging is also associated with marked declines in cognitive functioning, such as attention and working memory, as well as impaired reinforcement-based associative learning, which arises from anatomical and functional declines in the dopaminergic transmission systems and in distinct brain regions such as the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and hippocampus. In consequence, elderly adults may deviate from their usual conservative stance and toward more risk-taking tendencies, as observed in a subset of studies, if the demands of the risk-taking task exceed their cognitive and learning capacities. More empirical investigations are needed to determine the key factors that influence elderly individuals' decision making and behavior in risky situations. Research in this field is likely to have important practical implications for the financial and medical decision making of elderly adults, as well as promoting designated help targeting the elderly population in making important life decisions.Keywords: risky decision making, aging, insula, cognition, dopaminergic system

  14. Identifying and assessing the risk of opioid abuse in patients with cancer: an integrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmichael AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Ashley-Nicole Carmichael,1 Laura Morgan,1 Egidio Del Fabbro2 1School of Pharmacy, 2Division of Hematology, Oncology, and Palliative Care, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Background: The misuse and abuse of opioid medications in many developed nations is a health crisis, leading to increased health-system utilization, emergency department visits, and overdose deaths. There are also increasing concerns about opioid abuse and diversion in patients with cancer, even at the end of life. Aims: To evaluate the current literature on opioid misuse and abuse, and more specifically the identification and assessment of opioid-abuse risk in patients with cancer. Our secondary aim is to offer the most current evidence of best clinical practice and suggest future directions for research. Materials and methods: Our integrative review included a literature search using the key terms “identification and assessment of opioid abuse in cancer”, “advanced cancer and opioid abuse”, “hospice and opioid abuse”, and “palliative care and opioid abuse”. PubMed, PsycInfo, and Embase were supplemented by a manual search. Results: We found 691 articles and eliminated 657, because they were predominantly noncancer populations or specifically excluded cancer patients. A total of 34 articles met our criteria, including case studies, case series, retrospective observational studies, and narrative reviews. The studies were categorized into screening questionnaires for opioid abuse or alcohol, urine drug screens to identify opioid misuse or abuse, prescription drug-monitoring programs, and the use of universal precautions. Conclusion: Screening questionnaires and urine drug screens indicated at least one in five patients with cancer may be at risk of opioid-use disorder. Several studies demonstrated associations between high-risk patients and clinical outcomes, such as aberrant behavior, prolonged opioid use, higher morphine-equivalent daily dose

  15. Integrated risk management in South Africa: between technological features and organisational reality

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Simonis, I

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available cost interoperable information and communication technology (ICT) solutions to effectively mitigate disaster risk by addressing all phases of disaster risk management from risk assessment to recovery; paving the way to improved risk governance...

  16. Decision making concept of risk control: integration of decision criteria, top level risk indices and plant performance indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Mavko, B.; Kozuh, M.

    1993-01-01

    A support system for risk monitoring and control is suggested. The following concepts of system elements are briefly discussed: risk curve partitioning, the reliability cost function, the multi-objective optimization model, preference assessment, safety/risk indicators, and knowledge based systems. (Z.S.) 2 figs

  17. Challenges of using HIV as a primary risk indicator: Need for integrated blood donor risk management model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mapako, T.; Parirewa, J.J.; Emmanuel, J.C.; Mvere, D.A.; Massundah, E.; Mavunganidze, G.; Marowa, L.M.; Postma, M.J.; Van Hulst, M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The use of risk modelling in blood safety is increasing getting momentum. NBSZ initiated blood donor risk profiling based on donation frequency (r-coding) since 1994 and in 2006 a generic risk classification model was developed (include age and donation venue) which was mainly based on

  18. Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

    2005-07-01

    PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

  19. An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Bin Zou; Xiaolu Jiang; Xiaoli Duan; Xiuge Zhao; Jing Zhang; Jingwen Tang; Guoqing Sun

    2017-01-01

    Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewabl...

  20. Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

    2016-01-01

    Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

  1. An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Bin; Jiang, Xiaolu; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Zhang, Jing; Tang, Jingwen; Sun, Guoqing

    2017-03-23

    Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewable resource industrial park in mainland China. With a discrete site investigation of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg) and zinc (Zn) concentrations, the continuous surfaces of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk caused by these heavy metals were estimated and mapped. Source apportionment analysis using geographical detector methods further revealed that these risks were primarily attributed to As, according to the power of the determinant and its associated synergic actions with other heavy metals. Concentrations of critical As and Cd, and the associated exposed CRs are closed to the safe thresholds after remediating the risk areas identified by the integrated H-G scheme. Therefore, the integrated H-G scheme provides an effective approach to support decision-making for regional contaminated soil remediation at fine spatial resolution with limited sampling data over a large geographical extent.

  2. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

  3. IT risk management disclosure in the integrated reports of the top 40 listed companies on the JSE limited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Marx

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Information Technology (IT has become an integral part of virtually all modern day organisations. The advent of IT has given rise to numerous benefits which increase productivity and efficiency in the workplace, however, IT also brings with it significant risks that can have an impact on an organisation’s ability to function as a going concern. Organisations, especially those listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE, are required to submit an Integrated Report (IR on an annual basis in which they indicate how they used the resources at their disposal to create value for the organisation and its stakeholders during the year under review. The IR is also a forward-looking document, as opposed to the traditional, backward-looking reports. The purpose of this paper is to determine to what extent IT Risk and IT Risk Management are disclosed in the IR’s of the Top 40 Listed Companies on the JSE. It further aims to determine whether IT Risks are included as material risk in the entity’s risk statements of the Integrated Report, and whether proper explanations are provided on how the materiality of the risks are determined and dealt with. This is done by means of an empirical study consisting of a content analysis of the IRs of the Top 40 listed companies on the JSE. The results of the analysis indicates that more than half of the companies included IT risk as part of their material risks and outlined appropriate and detailed processes that were followed by the company to manage those IT risks. The findings of the study accordingly support the need for communicating significant risks and the management thereof to stakeholders as part of the integrated nature of governance of entities. However, it is disconcerting that some companies are not doing this, and accordingly are not realising the need for communicating significant matters to their stakeholders and the value that informative and credible reporting will bring to an entity

  4. White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

    2015-07-15

    The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

  5. Let the IRIS Bloom:Regrowing the integrated risk information system (IRIS) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dourson, Michael L

    2018-05-03

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has an important role in protecting public health. Originally it provided a single database listing official risk values equally valid for all Agency offices, and was an important tool for risk assessment communication across EPA. Started in 1986, IRIS achieved full standing in 1990 when it listed 500 risk values, the effort of two senior EPA groups over 5 years of monthly face-to-face meetings, to assess combined risk data from multiple Agency offices. Those groups were disbanded in 1995, and the lack of continuing face-to-face meetings meant that IRIS became no longer EPA's comprehensive database of risk values or their latest evaluations. As a remedy, a work group of the Agency's senior scientists should be re-established to evaluate new risks and to update older ones. Risk values to be reviewed would come from the same EPA offices now developing such information on their own. Still, this senior group would have the final authority on posting a risk value in IRIS, independently of individual EPA offices. This approach could also lay the groundwork for an all-government IRIS database, especially needed as more government Agencies, industries and non-governmental organizations are addressing evolving risk characterizations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

  7. Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-04-19

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

  8. Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Huang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

  9. Examining the Perceived Value of Integration of Earned Value Management with Risk Management-Based Performance Measurement Baseline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Akhtar H.

    2014-01-01

    Many projects fail despite the use of evidence-based project management practices such as Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), Earned Value Management (EVM) and Risk Management (RM). Although previous researchers have found that integrated project management techniques could be more valuable than the same techniques used by themselves, these…

  10. A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadsheh, Louay A.

    2010-01-01

    This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

  11. Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

    2010-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

  12. Integrity management of Brazil-Bolivia gas pipeline to reduce risks due third party damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcellos, Carlos Renato Aragonez de; Monte, Oswaldo [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Colen, Eustaquio; Cunha, Roberto de Souza; Oliveira, Hudson Regis de [Transportadora Brasileira Gasoduto Bolivia-Brasil, S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lima, Rogerio de Souza [RSL Consultoria Geoprojetos (Brazil); Schultz Neto, Walter [Milton Braga Assessoria Tecnica (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The Bolivia-Brazil Natural Gas Pipeline has 2.600 kilometers from Rio Grande City in Bolivia to Canoas City, in the south of Brazil. The right-of-way crosses a lot of types of topography and areas subjected to various kinds of anthropological actions, like areas in class locations 3, locals under agricultural activities, forests and minerals explorations, and near constructions of highway and railway, industrial constructions, new pipelines in the same right-of -way, channels, dams, that requires special projects to avoid that the gas pipeline could be subject to strengths that were not consider in the original design. The aim of this paper is to present the jobs developed by TBG during seven years of gas pipeline operations, as public awareness program, procedures to design, construct and inspect specials constructions along and near the right-of -way, control of mineral and forest explorations, monitoring and controlling of excavations on the right-of-way to install new pipelines and optical cables, to reduce risks of gas pipeline damage due third party, as a component of TBG' Managing Integrity Gas Pipeline Program. (author)

  13. Integrated risk governance in the Yungui Plateau, China: The 2008 ice-snow storm disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Ye

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Yungui Plateau in Southwestern China is regarded as one of the major bio- and cultural diversity centers in the world because it contains a remarkable variety of ecological niches and ethnic groups. Due to its unique mountain geographic landscape and domination by a monsoon climate, it has high vulnerabilities and is frequently hit by various climatic and geological hazards such as droughts, floods, earthquakes, and landslides. In the past two decades, while the region has enjoyed rapid social and economic development, vegetation degradation, water pollution and soil loss, as well as other environmental problems, have become major concerns in the region. In January 2008, nearly half of China was hit by an unprecedented series of hazards of low temperature, persistent rain, snow, and a series of ice storms with South China suffering the most. In this paper, with a comprehensive overview of the causes and consequences of the disaster, a disaster chain in Yungui Plateau is identified and environmental, social, economic and political factors are analyzed under a framework of integrated risk governance.

  14. Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

    2018-01-01

    Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

  15. A novel integration effort to reduce the risk for alcohol-exposed pregnancy among women attending urban STD clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Heidi E; Chander, Geetanjali; Green, Patricia P; Hutsell, Catherine A; Weingarten, Kimberly; Peterson, Karen L

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) is a significant public health problem in the United States. Sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics serve female clients with a high prevalence of heavy alcohol consumption coupled with ineffective contraceptive use. Project CHOICES (Changing High-Risk AlcOhol Use and Increasing Contraception Effectiveness) is an evidence-based, brief intervention to lower risk of AEP by targeting alcohol and contraceptive behaviors through motivational interviewing and individualized feedback. We describe our experience integrating and implementing CHOICES in STD clinics. This endeavor aligns with CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention's program collaboration and service integration strategic priority to strengthen collaborative work across disease areas and integrate services provided by related programs at the client level.

  16. Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2006-08-01

    A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.

  17. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  18. Risk factors of breast cancer and knowledge about the disease: an integrative revision of Latin American studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Ferreira de Araújo Jerônimo

    Full Text Available Abstract The aim of this integrative review was to compare Latin American literature about risk and knowledge on breast cancer. Of 47 studies selected, 20 were about knowledge or awareness and 27 about risk of breast cancer. English was the dominant language in studies about risk, whereas studies about knowledge were mainly written in Spanish or Portuguese. Studies about knowledge were all cross- sectional, whereas case- control studies dominated authors’ interest about risk of breast cancer. Studies about knowledge were mainly focused on early detection of the disease and the most common study objective was breast self- examination (N = 14. In contrast, few studies about risk of breast cancer focused on early detection (N = 5. Obesity and overweight (N = 14, family history (N = 13, decreased parity (N = 12, and short breastfeeding duration (N = 10 were among the most frequent identified risk factors. Socio- economic factors such as income and educational level had variable effects on breast cancer risk and affected also knowledge of women about risk factors and early detection. Present results indicated that studies about risk of breast cancer were more often based on a better sound analytical background, compared to studies about knowledge, which were mostly descriptive.

  19. 'Integration'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2011-01-01

    , while the countries have adopted disparate policies and ideologies, differences in the actual treatment and attitudes towards immigrants and refugees in everyday life are less clear, due to parallel integration programmes based on strong similarities in the welfare systems and in cultural notions...... of equality in the three societies. Finally, it shows that family relations play a central role in immigrants’ and refugees’ establishment of a new life in the receiving societies, even though the welfare society takes on many of the social and economic functions of the family....

  20. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  1. COMSY - A software tool for PLIM + PLEX with integrated risk-informed approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zander, A.; Nopper, H.; Roessner, R.

    2004-01-01

    The majority of mechanical components and structures in a thermal power plant are designed to experience a service life which is far above the intended design life. In most cases, only a small percentage of mechanical components are subject to significant degradation which may affect the integrity or the function of the component. If plant life extension (PLEX) is considered as an option, a plant specific PLIM strategy needs to be developed. One of the most important tasks of such a PLIM strategy is to identify those components which (i) are relevant for the safety and/or availability of the plant and (ii) experience elevated degradation due to their operating and design conditions. For these components special life management strategies need to be established to reliably monitor their condition. FRAMATOME ANP GmbH has developed the software tool COMSY, which is designed to efficiently support a plant-wide lifetime management strategy for static mechanical components, providing the basis for plant life extension (PLEX) activities. The objective is the economical and safe operation of power plants over their design lifetime - and beyond. The tool provides the capability to establish a program guided technical documentation of the plant by utilizing a virtual plant data model. The software integrates engineering analysis functions and comprehensive material libraries to perform a lifetime analysis for various degradation mechanisms typically experienced in power plants (e.g. flow-accelerated corrosion, intergranular stress corrosion cracking, strain-induced cracking, material fatigue, cavitation erosion, droplet impingement erosion, pitting, etc.). A risk-based prioritization serves to focus inspection activities on safety or availability relevant locations, where a degradation potential exists. Trending functions support the comparison of the as-measured condition with the predicted progress of degradation while making allowance for measurement tolerances. The

  2. Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

    OpenAIRE

    Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was develope...

  3. From Invention to Innovation: Risk Analysis to Integrate One Health Technology in the Dairy Farm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, Andrea; Boselli, Carlo; Amatiste, Simonetta; Ninci, Simone; Frazzoli, Chiara; Dragone, Roberto; De Rossi, Alberto; Grasso, Gerardo; Mantovani, Alberto; Brajon, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    Current Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP) approaches mainly fit for food industry, while their application in primary food production is still rudimentary. The European food safety framework calls for science-based support to the primary producers' mandate for legal, scientific, and ethical responsibility in food supply. The multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary project ALERT pivots on the development of the technological invention (BEST platform) and application of its measurable (bio)markers-as well as scientific advances in risk analysis-at strategic points of the milk chain for time and cost-effective early identification of unwanted and/or unexpected events of both microbiological and toxicological nature. Health-oriented innovation is complex and subject to multiple variables. Through field activities in a dairy farm in central Italy, we explored individual components of the dairy farm system to overcome concrete challenges for the application of translational science in real life and (veterinary) public health. Based on an HACCP-like approach in animal production, the farm characterization focused on points of particular attention (POPAs) and critical control points to draw a farm management decision tree under the One Health view (environment, animal health, food safety). The analysis was based on the integrated use of checklists (environment; agricultural and zootechnical practices; animal health and welfare) and laboratory analyses of well water, feed and silage, individual fecal samples, and bulk milk. The understanding of complex systems is a condition to accomplish true innovation through new technologies. BEST is a detection and monitoring system in support of production security, quality and safety: a grid of its (bio)markers can find direct application in critical points for early identification of potential hazards or anomalies. The HACCP-like self-monitoring in primary production is feasible, as well as the biomonitoring of live

  4. Risk factors for loss of epithelial flap integrity in laser-assisted subepithelial keratectomy surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galindo, Joanna; Fadlallah, Ali; Robinson, Steve; Chelala, Elias; Melki, Samir A

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate risk factors leading to loss of epithelial flap integrity in laser-assisted subepithelial keratectomy (LASEK). Boston Eye Group, Brookline, Massachusetts, USA. Retrospective case study. This retrospective chart review was performed for LASEK surgeries that occurred between January 2009 and October 2013. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether epithelium preservation was correlated with age, sex, sphere, cylinder, spherical equivalent (SE), keratometry, and central corneal thickness (CCT). The study reviewed 1009 eyes of 509 patients with a mean age of 29.1 years ± 12.2 (SD). The mean preoperative spherical refraction was -4.7 ± 2.5 diopters (D), and the mean preoperative cylinder was -1.1 ± 0.8 D. The mean preoperative decimal corrected distance visual acuity was 1.01 ± 0.07. Single-sheet mobilization of the loosened epithelium flap was found in 72.3% of cases. Fragmented preservation events occurred in 17.6% of cases; the flap was discarded in 10.0% of cases. Epithelium preservation was significantly correlated with age (P = .048) but not with other parameters (P > .05 for sex, sphere, cylinder, SE, keratometry, CCT, and surgeon experience). Epithelial flap dissection was less likely to lead to a single epithelial sheet in patients older than 50 years than in younger patients (56.3% versus 74.9%). The mean postoperative decimal uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) at 3 months was 0.98 ± 0.08. There was no statistical difference in postoperative UDVA between the undiscarded flap group and discarded flap group (P = .128). Successful dissection of single-sheet epithelial flap diminished with age. No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2016 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

    2017-01-01

    The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km2) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

  6. Clinical utility of early amplitude integrated EEG in monitoring term newborns at risk of neurological injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina A. Toso

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to test the clinical utility of an early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG to predict short-term neurological outcome in term newborns at risk of neurology injury. METHODS: this was a prospective, descriptive study. The inclusion criteria were neonatal encephalopathy, neurologic disturbances, and severe respiratory distress syndrome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratio (LR were calculated. Clinical and demographic data were analyzed. Neurological outcome was defined as the sum of clinical, electroimaging, and neuroimaging findings. RESULTS: ten of the 21 monitored infants (48% presented altered short-term neurologic outcome. The aEEG had 90% sensitivity, 82% specificity, 82% positive predictive value, and 90% negative predictive value. The positive LR was 4.95, and the negative LR was 0.12. In three of 12 (25% encephalopathic infants, the aEEG allowed for a better definition of the severity of their condition. Seizures were detected in eight infants (38%, all subclinical at baseline, and none had a normal aEEG background pattern. The status of three infants (43% evolved and required two or more drugs for treatment. CONCLUSIONS: in infants with encephalopathy or other severe illness, aEEG disturbances occur frequently. aEEG provided a better classification of the severity of encephalopathy, detected early subclinical seizures, and allowed for monitoring of the response to treatment. aEEG was a useful tool at the neonatal intensive care unit for predicting poor short-term neurological outcomes for all sick newborn.

  7. From Invention to Innovation: Risk Analysis to Integrate One Health Technology in the Dairy Farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Lombardo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Current Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP approaches mainly fit for food industry, while their application in primary food production is still rudimentary. The European food safety framework calls for science-based support to the primary producers’ mandate for legal, scientific, and ethical responsibility in food supply. The multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary project ALERT pivots on the development of the technological invention (BEST platform and application of its measurable (biomarkers—as well as scientific advances in risk analysis—at strategic points of the milk chain for time and cost-effective early identification of unwanted and/or unexpected events of both microbiological and toxicological nature. Health-oriented innovation is complex and subject to multiple variables. Through field activities in a dairy farm in central Italy, we explored individual components of the dairy farm system to overcome concrete challenges for the application of translational science in real life and (veterinary public health. Based on an HACCP-like approach in animal production, the farm characterization focused on points of particular attention (POPAs and critical control points to draw a farm management decision tree under the One Health view (environment, animal health, food safety. The analysis was based on the integrated use of checklists (environment; agricultural and zootechnical practices; animal health and welfare and laboratory analyses of well water, feed and silage, individual fecal samples, and bulk milk. The understanding of complex systems is a condition to accomplish true innovation through new technologies. BEST is a detection and monitoring system in support of production security, quality and safety: a grid of its (biomarkers can find direct application in critical points for early identification of potential hazards or anomalies. The HACCP-like self-monitoring in primary production is feasible, as well as the

  8. A comparative examination of currency risk pricing and market integration in the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odongo Kodongo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine the pricing of currency risk and market integration in the equity markets of Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Generalized Method of Moments with a multi-beta asset pricing model and firm-level data, we find that currency risk is partly unconditionally priced in South Africa's stock market, with this market being largely integrated with the world equity markets. Conversely, currency risk is not priced in Nigeria's equity market, which also shows no evidence of integration with the world equity markets. Interestingly, a portfolio analysis of firms reveals a size based return sensitivity to both world equity markets and exchange rate volatility across the two countries. Therefore, while general results suggest that Nigeria, rather than South Africa, would provide greater diversification benefits to international investors with little or no worry about hedging unconditional exchange rate risk, that view must be nuanced when considering large size firms which are consistently sensitive to the two factors across both countries.

  9. An Integrated Simulation, Inference and Optimization Approach for Groundwater Remediation with Two-stage Health-Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aili Yang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an integrated simulation, inference and optimization approach with two-stage health risk assessment (i.e., ISIO-THRA is developed for supporting groundwater remediation for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Both environmental standards and health risk are considered as the constraints in the ISIO-THRA model. The health risk includes two parts: (1 the health risk during the remediation process and (2 the health risk in the natural attenuation period after remediation. In the ISIO-THRA framework, the relationship between contaminant concentrations and time is expressed through first-order decay models. The results demonstrate that: (1 stricter environmental standards and health risk would require larger pumping rates for the same remediation duration; (2 higher health risk may happen in the period of the remediation process; (3 for the same environmental standard and acceptable health-risk level, the remediation techniques that take the shortest time would be chosen. ISIO-THRA can help to systematically analyze interaction among contaminant transport, remediation duration, and environmental and health concerns, and further provide useful supportive information for decision makers.

  10. An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide

  11. Risk assessment of Giardia from a full scale MBR sewage treatment plant caused by membrane integrity failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Chen, Zhimin; An, Wei; Xiao, Shumin; Yuan, Hongying; Zhang, Dongqing; Yang, Min

    2015-04-01

    Membrane bioreactors (MBR) are highly efficient at intercepting particles and microbes and have become an important technology for wastewater reclamation. However, many pathogens can accumulate in activated sludge due to the long residence time usually adopted in MBR, and thus may pose health risks when membrane integrity problems occur. This study presents data from a survey on the occurrence of water-borne Giardia pathogens in reclaimed water from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant with MBR experiencing membrane integrity failure, and assessed the associated risk for green space irrigation. Due to membrane integrity failure, the MBR effluent turbidity varied between 0.23 and 1.90 NTU over a period of eight months. Though this turbidity level still met reclaimed water quality standards (≤5 NTU), Giardia were detected at concentrations of 0.3 to 95 cysts/10 L, with a close correlation between effluent turbidity and Giardia concentration. All β-giardin gene sequences of Giardia in the WWTP influents were genotyped as Assemblages A and B, both of which are known to infect humans. An exponential dose-response model was applied to assess the risk of infection by Giardia. The risk in the MBR effluent with chlorination was 9.83×10(-3), higher than the acceptable annual risk of 1.0×10(-4). This study suggested that membrane integrity is very important for keeping a low pathogen level, and multiple barriers are needed to ensure the biological safety of MBR effluent. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  13. Integrated Risk Management as a Factor of Competitiveness Increase of Oil and Gas Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya Nikolaevna Shabanova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to risk assessment and analysis (RAA in oil and gas industry. The article reviews current trends of risks’ assessment and management in oil and gas industry in relation to the activities of enterprises engaged in engineering design in the field of oil and gas processing considering the requirements of international standards (ISO. The classification of risks is provided with consideration of peculiar features of enterprises of Mineral Resources Sector. The authors present a review of major international and national standards, specifying the activities in risk management. It is shown that one of the modern trends of international standardization is a development of risk management and management of sustainable business based on the risk oriented approach. The authors have proposed the algorithm of risk management in oil and gas projects using the domestic software Business Studio, logically divided into following three stages: identification and assessment of project risks, development of risks mitigation measures and monitoring of project risks. The main indicators of the oil and gas complex of Russia (the volume of oil and gas, the primary oil refining, are the main risk factors for the oil and gas industry. The peculiarities of risk management are described in the form of an economic category. The article shows that risk can and should be controlled, in other words, certain measures should be applied to anticipate as many as possible the risk events and to reduce them.

  14. An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    There is increasing interest for agencies and industries to develop risk management processes for a wide variety of applications. Traditional risk management processes are motivated by controlling risk and avoiding losses. In contrast, other organizational processes focus on managing performance and value generation. In this paper we argue that risk management also adds an important contribution to these processes. However, this requires “proper” risk management extending beyond narrow safety oriented perspectives built on quantitative risk analysis and tolerability/acceptance criteria. There is need for a broad risk-performance framework with uncertainty being a main component of risk, and where knowledge and surprises are adequately reflected. In the paper we present and discuss such a framework. The framework is developed on the basis of an analysis of combinations of different risk management and performance management practices/policies. We show how the risk and performance management processes can be improved by proper risk conceptualization and a holistic thinking on how to develop and use goals in the organization, how to balance different concerns, and consider the need for agility – “sensitivity to operations”, as well as how to give weight to vulnerabilities, resilience, and antifragility. - Highlights: • We relate key performance management and risk management principles. • We propose an enhanced framework to unify thinking of performance and risk. • We apply the framework to a public-private partnership case study.

  15. Integrated mapping of groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Villholth, KG

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater drought denotes the condition and hazard during a prolonged meteorological drought when groundwater resources decline and become unavailable or inaccessible for human use. Groundwater drought risk refers to the combined physical risk...

  16. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

  18. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der H.; Braak, ter C.J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We

  19. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A.J.; Braak, ter Cajo J.F.; Meent, van de Dik; Voet, van der Hilko

    2016-01-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To

  20. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, R.; Meesters, J.A.J.; Ter Braak, C.J.; Meent, D. van de; van der Voet, H.

    2016-01-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal

  1. Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flood hazards in coastal regions induce risks toward lives, property, economy and the environment. In need of sustainable and holistic actions to reduce risks, these should include innovative Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures. While differing on important...

  2. Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2011-01-01

    The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

  3. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce

  4. Multi-site risk-based project planning, optimization, sequencing, & budgeting process and tool for the integrated facility disposition project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.G.; Castillo, C.; Huntsman, J.; Killoy, S.; Lucek, H.; Marks, T.C.

    2011-01-01

    Faced with the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex Transformation, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) was tasked with developing an integrated plan for the decommissioning of over 400 facilities and 300 environmental remediation units, as well as the many reconfiguration and modernization projects at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Y-12 Complex. Manual scheduling of remediation activities is time-consuming and inherently introduces bias of the scheduler or organization into the process. Clearly a well-defined process, quantitative risk-based tool was needed to develop an objective, unbiased baseline sequence and schedule with a sound technical foundation for the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP). Faced with limited available data, innovation was needed to extrapolate intelligent relative data for key risk parameters based on known data elements. The IFDP Supermodel was customized and expanded to provide this capability for conceptual planning of diverse project portfolios and multiple sites. (author)

  5. An Integrated Approach to Change the Outcome Part II: Targeted Neuromuscular Training Techniques to Reduce Identified ACL Injury Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Brent, Jensen L.; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    Prior reports indicate that female athletes who demonstrate high knee abduction moments (KAMs) during landing are more responsive to neuromuscular training designed to reduce KAM. Identification of female athletes who demonstrate high KAM, which accurately identifies those at risk for noncontact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, may be ideal for targeted neuromuscular training. Specific neuromuscular training targeted to the underlying biomechanical components that increase KAM may provide the most efficient and effective training strategy to reduce noncontact ACL injury risk. The purpose of the current commentary is to provide an integrative approach to identify and target mechanistic underpinnings to increased ACL injury in female athletes. Specific neuromuscular training techniques will be presented that address individual algorithm components related to high knee load landing patterns. If these integrated techniques are employed on a widespread basis, prevention strategies for noncontact ACL injury among young female athletes may prove both more effective and efficient. PMID:22580980

  6. Integrating chemical and biological status assessment: Assembling lines of evidence for the evaluation of river ecosystem risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz Gracia, Isabel; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes various approaches to evaluating ecological risk in rivers affected by multiple chemical stressors, with emphasis on biofilm and invertebrate community responses. Metrics should be considered as different lines of evidence that, when weighted, form an advanced weight of evidence approach to establishing the environmental risk on a basin scale. Combination of field surveys to obtain observational data of communities, in situ experiments, toxicological sediment tests and a good chemical description of the medium (water and sediment) helps give an integrative view of the chemical and biological state of a river ecosystem. The greater and more distinct the variables used, the greater is our ability to identify the effects of major stressors impairing communities. Weight of evidence is an integrative methodology for tackling the challenge of determining causal relations and applying this knowledge in the decision-making processes of river management.

  7. A spatial analysis of integrated risk: vulnerability of ecosystem services provisioning to different hazards in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pártl, Adam; Vačkář, David; Loučková, Blanka; Lorencová, Eliška

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 89, č. 3 (2017), s. 1185-1204 ISSN 0921-030X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MV VG20122015091 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : Ecosystems * Ecosystem services * Czech Republic * Integrated risk assessment * Vulnerability * GIS Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.833, year: 2016

  8. Integrated drought risk assessment of multi-hazard-affected bodies based on copulas in the Taoerhe Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rui; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Alu, Si; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si; Dong, Zhenhua

    2018-02-01

    Along with global warming, drought disasters are occurring more frequently and are seriously affecting normal life and food security in China. Drought risk assessments are necessary to provide support for local governments. This study aimed to establish an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies. First, drought characteristics, including duration and severity, were classified using the 1953-2010 precipitation anomaly in the Taoerhe Basin based on run theory, and their marginal distributions were identified by exponential and Gamma distributions, respectively. Then, drought duration and severity were related to construct a joint probability distribution based on the copula function. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate maize yield and historical data to calculate the loss rates of agriculture, industry, and animal husbandry in the study area. Next, we constructed vulnerability curves. Finally, the spatial distributions of drought risk for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods were expressed using inverse distance weighting. Our results indicate that the spatial distributions of the three return periods are consistent. The highest drought risk is in Ulanhot, and the duration and severity there were both highest. This means that higher drought risk corresponds to longer drought duration and larger drought severity, thus providing useful information for drought and water resource management. For 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, the drought risk values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53, 0.45 to 0.59, and 0.50 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, when the return period increases, the drought risk increases.

  9. Evidence Report, Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumbado, Jennifer Rochlis; Billman, Dorrit; Feary, Mike; Green, Collin

    2011-01-01

    The success of future exploration missions depends, even more than today, on effective integration of humans and technology (automation and robotics). This will not emerge by chance, but by design. Both crew and ground personnel will need to do more demanding tasks in more difficult conditions, amplifying the costs of poor design and the benefits of good design. This report has looked at the importance of good design and the risks from poor design from several perspectives: 1) If the relevant functions needed for a mission are not identified, then designs of technology and its use by humans are unlikely to be effective: critical functions will be missing and irrelevant functions will mislead or drain attention. 2) If functions are not distributed effectively among the (multiple) participating humans and automation/robotic systems, later design choices can do little to repair this: additional unnecessary coordination work may be introduced, workload may be redistributed to create problems, limited human attentional resources may be wasted, and the capabilities of both humans and technology underused. 3) If the design does not promote accurate understanding of the capabilities of the technology, the operators will not use the technology effectively: the system may be switched off in conditions where it would be effective, or used for tasks or in contexts where its effectiveness may be very limited. 4) If an ineffective interaction design is implemented and put into use, a wide range of problems can ensue. Many involve lack of transparency into the system: operators may be unable or find it very difficult to determine a) the current state and changes of state of the automation or robot, b) the current state and changes in state of the system being controlled or acted on, and c) what actions by human or by system had what effects. 5) If the human interfaces for operation and control of robotic agents are not designed to accommodate the unique points of view and

  10. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed

    2016-05-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi

  11. Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2015-04-01

    Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

  12. A proposed structural, risk-informed approach to the periodicity of CANDU-6 nuclear containment integrated leak rate testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saliba, N. [McGill Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Komljenovic, D. [Hydro-Quebec, Gentilly-2 Nuclear Power Plant, Becancour, Quebec (Canada); Chouinard, L. [McGill Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Vaillancourt, R.; Chretien, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Gentilly-2 Nuclear Power Plant, Becancour, Quebec (Canada); Gocevski, V. [Hydro-Quebec Equipements, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    As ultimate lines of defense against leakage of large amounts of radioactive material to the environment in case of major reactor accidents, containments have been monitored through well designed periodic tests to ensure their proper performance. Regulatory organizations have imposed types and frequencies of containment tests based on highly-conservative deterministic approaches, and judgments of knowledgeable experts. Recent developments in the perception and methods of risk evaluation have been applied to rationalize the leakage-rate testing frequencies while maintaining risks within acceptable levels, preserving the integrity of containments, and respecting the defense-in-depth philosophy. The objective of this paper is to introduce a proposed risk-informed decision making framework on the periodicity of nuclear containment ILRTs for CANDU-6 nuclear power plants based on five main decision criteria, namely: 1) the containment structural integrity; 2) inputs from PSA Level-2; 3) the requirements of deterministic safety analyses and defense-in-depth concepts; 4- the obligations under regulatory and standard requirements; and 5) the return of experience from nuclear containments historic performance. The concepts of dormant reliability and structural fragility will guide the assessment of the containment structural integrity, within the general context of a global containment life cycle management program. This study is oriented towards the requirements of CANDU-6 reactors, in general, and Hydro-Quebec's Gentilly-2 nuclear power plant, in particular. The present article is the first part in a series of papers that will comprehensively detail the proposed research. (author)

  13. Environmental hazards from natural hydrocarbons seepage: Integrated classification of risk from sediment chemistry, bioavailability and biomarkers responses in sentinel species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedetti, Maura; Gorbi, Stefania; Fattorini, Daniele; D'Errico, Giuseppe; Piva, Francesco; Pacitti, Davide; Regoli, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Potential effects of natural emissions of hydrocarbons in the marine environment have been poorly investigated. In this study, a multidisciplinary weight of evidence (WOE) study was carried out on a shallow seepage, integrating sediment chemistry with bioavailability and onset of subcellular responses (biomarkers) in caged eels and mussels. Results from different lines of evidence (LOEs) were elaborated within a quantitative WOE model which, based on logical flowcharts, provide synthetic indices of hazard for each LOE, before their integration in a quantitative risk assessment. Evaluations of different LOEs were not always in accordance and their overall elaboration summarized as Moderate the risk in the seepage area. This study provided first evidence of biological effects in organisms exposed to natural hydrocarbon emissions, confirming the limit of chemical characterization as stand-alone criteria for environmental quality assessment and the utility of multidisciplinary investigations to determine the good environmental status as required by Environmental Directives. -- Highlights: • Hazards from natural seepage were evaluated through a multidisciplinary WOE study. • Caged eels and mussels were chosen as bioindicator organisms. • Evaluations obtained from various LOEs were not always in accordance. • Biological effects of natural hydrocarbons release were demonstrated. • WOE approach could discriminate different levels of hazard in low impacted conditions. -- A multidisciplinary WOE study in a shallow coastal seepage summarized a Moderate level of risk based on integration of sediment chemistry with biological effects in caged organisms

  14. A proposed structural, risk-informed approach to the periodicity of CANDU-6 nuclear containment integrated leak rate testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saliba, N.; Komljenovic, D.; Chouinard, L.; Vaillancourt, R.; Chretien, G.; Gocevski, V.

    2010-01-01

    As ultimate lines of defense against leakage of large amounts of radioactive material to the environment in case of major reactor accidents, containments have been monitored through well designed periodic tests to ensure their proper performance. Regulatory organizations have imposed types and frequencies of containment tests based on highly-conservative deterministic approaches, and judgments of knowledgeable experts. Recent developments in the perception and methods of risk evaluation have been applied to rationalize the leakage-rate testing frequencies while maintaining risks within acceptable levels, preserving the integrity of containments, and respecting the defense-in-depth philosophy. The objective of this paper is to introduce a proposed risk-informed decision making framework on the periodicity of nuclear containment ILRTs for CANDU-6 nuclear power plants based on five main decision criteria, namely: 1) the containment structural integrity; 2) inputs from PSA Level-2; 3) the requirements of deterministic safety analyses and defense-in-depth concepts; 4- the obligations under regulatory and standard requirements; and 5) the return of experience from nuclear containments historic performance. The concepts of dormant reliability and structural fragility will guide the assessment of the containment structural integrity, within the general context of a global containment life cycle management program. This study is oriented towards the requirements of CANDU-6 reactors, in general, and Hydro-Quebec's Gentilly-2 nuclear power plant, in particular. The present article is the first part in a series of papers that will comprehensively detail the proposed research. (author)

  15. Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

    2017-05-01

    Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Factores, grupos de riesgo y atención integral a la conducta violenta Factors, risk groups and integral care to violent behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anais Marta Valladares González

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available La violencia es la acción ejercida por una o varias personas, en la que se somete de manera intencional al maltrato, presión, sufrimiento, manipulación u otra acción que atente contra la integridad física, psicológica y moral de cualquier persona o grupo de personas. Los factores de riesgo de la conducta violenta se pueden agrupar en macrosociales, microsociales e individuales. El enfoque integral de intervención hacia la conducta violenta, debe tener en cuenta, no solo los componentes biológicos, psicológicos y sociales, sino también las peculiaridades sociales, grupales e individuales de su determinación.Violence is the action exerted by one or a certain number of persons practicing in an intentional way the ill-treatment, the pressure, suffering, manipulation or another action attempting on physical, psychological or moral integrity of any person of group of persons. The risk factors of violent behavior may be grouped into macrosocial, microsocial and individual. The integral approach of the intervention to violent behavior must to be into account not only the biological, psychological and social components but also the social, group and individual particular features of its determination.

  17. A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

  18. Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

    2013-06-01

    Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

  19. Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortensen, Holly M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-01-01

    Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization of drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment

  20. Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1990-02-01

    Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

  1. A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

    2008-07-01

    A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

  2. Integrated Vibration and Acceleration Testing to Reduce Payload Mass, Cost and Mission Risk, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to develop a capability to provide integrated acceleration, vibration, and shock testing using a state-of-the-art centrifuge, allowing for the test of...

  3. CyberCIEGE Scenario Illustrating Integrity Risks to a Military-Like Facility

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fielk, Klaus

    2004-01-01

    .... This thesis asked if a Scenario Definition File (SDF) for the CyberCIEGE game could be developed to educate and train players in Information Assurance on matters related to information integrity in a networking environment...

  4. Integrating knowledge for managing risk in infrastructure projects : the case of tunnel works

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen

    2012-01-01

    The objective of traditional approaches to project risk management is to identify risks that can lead to project failure and to implement effective strategies to manage them. Information on the relevant causes and conditions in which failures arise is usually required as necessary input for

  5. The Integration of the Adaptation Approach into EU and Dutch Legislation on Flood Risk Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilissen, Herman Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, worldwide, gives rise to multifarious issues concerning water management. This will lead to both an increase of flood risks and risks related to drought and water scarcity, mostly as a result of sea level rise, increasing river discharges and heavy rainfall, respectively longer, more

  6. The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

    1995-01-01

    It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

  7. Prediction impact curve is a new measure integrating intervention effects in the evaluation of risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, William; Ganna, Andrea; Ingelsson, Erik; Janssens, A Cecile J W

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population. Using simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease. We estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval. We conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. The Association between Adolescent Sexting, Psychosocial Difficulties, and Risk Behavior: Integrative Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Ouytsel, Joris; Walrave, Michel; Ponnet, Koen; Heirman, Wannes

    2015-01-01

    When a sexting message spreads to an unintended audience, it can adversely affect the victim's reputation. Sexting incidents constitute a potential school safety risk. Just as with other types of adolescent risk behavior, school nurses might have to initiate the first response when a sexting episode arises, but a school nurse's role goes…

  9. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

  10. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  11. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities ers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  12. Integration of fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP for risk assessment in mining industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Verma

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Mining industry has always been known for its unsafe working environment. This industry is one of the most hazard prone industries. To maintain safety in workplace timely assessment of risk associated with different operations performed to extract ore from the ore body has become necessity. To serve the said purpose, present work demonstrates a robust hybrid risk assessment approach for mining industry.Design/Methodology: Accident data from 1995 to 2012 is reviewed to identify hazards contributed to negative outcomes. The FRA approach is implemented to evaluate the risk levels associated with identified hazard factors. Thereafter AHP pairwise comparison matrix is developed to obtain priority weights for the hazard factors. Final priority of hazards based on severity of level of risk associated with them is obtained considering the outcome of FRA approach in terms of risk score for the hazards, combined with the priority weights obtained from AHP technique.Findings: Defuzzified FAHP weight of hazard factors, this weight gives priority sequence of hazards to be considered for development of plan of mitigation.Originality/Value: Risk assessment is a requirement of the Occupational Health and Safety Act 2000 (Section 7& 8. The data required to assess the risk is uncertain, and in such case fuzzy approach is well suited to process the data and get the crisp output. The output of fuzzy approach is made robust with its integration to AHP. In this way FAHP can be used as robust technique for risk assessment in this industry and this technique develops an efficient safety management system for the achievement of goal to develop the workplace with zero accident, which many other countries have already achieved.

  13. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  14. Integrating renewable energy technologies in the electric supply industry: A risk management approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoff, T.E. [Pacific Energy Group, Walnut Creek, CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    Regulatory and technical forces are causing electric utilities to move from a natural monopoly to a more competitive environment. Associated with this movement is an increasing concern about how to manage the risks associated with the electric supply business. One approach to managing risks is to purchase financial instruments such as options and futures contracts. Another approach is to own physical assets that have low risk attributes or characteristics. This research evaluates how investments in renewable energy technologies can mitigate risks in the electric supply industry. It identifies risks that are known to be of concern to utilities and other power producers. These risks include uncertainty in fuel prices, demand, environmental regulations, capital cost, supply, and market structure. The research then determines how investments in renewables can mitigate these risks. Methods are developed to calculate the value of renewables in terms of their attributes of fuel costs, environmental costs, lead-time, modularity, availability, initial capital costs, and investment reversibility. Examples illustrate how to apply the methods.

  15. A METEOROLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR POWER LINES BASED ON GIS AND MULTI-SENSOR INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Lin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Power lines, exposed in the natural environment, are vulnerable to various kinds of meteorological factors. Traditional research mainly deals with the influence of a single meteorological condition on the power line, which lacks of comprehensive effects evaluation and analysis of the multiple meteorological factors. In this paper, we use multiple meteorological monitoring data obtained by multi-sensors to implement the meteorological risk assessment and early warning of power lines. Firstly, we generate meteorological raster map from discrete meteorological monitoring data using spatial interpolation. Secondly, the expert scoring based analytic hierarchy process is used to compute the power line risk index of all kinds of meteorological conditions and establish the mathematical model of meteorological risk. By adopting this model in raster calculator of ArcGIS, we will have a raster map showing overall meteorological risks for power line. Finally, by overlaying the power line buffer layer to that raster map, we will get to know the exact risk index around a certain part of power line, which will provide significant guidance for power line risk management. In the experiment, based on five kinds of observation data gathered from meteorological stations in Guizhou Province of China, including wind, lightning, rain, ice, temperature, we carry on the meteorological risk analysis for the real power lines, and experimental results have proved the feasibility and validity of our proposed method.

  16. Clinical utility of early amplitude integrated EEG in monitoring term newborns at risk of neurological injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina A. Toso

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to test the clinical utility of an early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG to predict short-term neurological outcome in term newborns at risk of neurology injury. Methods: this was a prospective, descriptive study. The inclusion criteria were neonatal encephalopathy, neurologic disturbances, and severe respiratory distress syndrome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratio (LR were calculated. Clinical and demographic data were analyzed. Neurological outcome was defined as the sum of clinical, electroimaging, and neuroimaging findings. Results: ten of the 21 monitored infants (48% presented altered short-term neurologic outcome. The aEEG had 90% sensitivity, 82% specificity, 82% positive predictive value, and 90% negative predictive value. The positive LR was 4.95, and the negative LR was 0.12. In three of 12 (25% encephalopathic infants, the aEEG allowed for a better definition of the severity of their condition. Seizures were detected in eight infants (38%, all subclinical at baseline, and none had a normal aEEG background pattern. The status of three infants (43% evolved and required two or more drugs for treatment. Conclusions: in infants with encephalopathy or other severe illness, aEEG disturbances occur frequently. aEEG provided a better classification of the severity of encephalopathy, detected early subclinical seizures, and allowed for monitoring of the response to treatment. aEEG was a useful tool at the neonatal intensive care unit for predicting poor short-term neurological outcomes for all sick newborn. Resumo: Objetivo: testar a utilidade clínica do aEEG precoce em recém-nascidos a termo com risco de lesão neurológica, para prever resultados neurológicos de curto prazo. Métodos: estudo prospectivo e descritivo. Os critérios de inclusão foram encefalopatia neonatal, distúrbios neurológicos e bebês com SARA grave. Sensibilidade, especificidade

  17. Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

  18. Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

    2018-01-01

    Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

  19. Integration of risk matrix and event tree analysis: a natural stone ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Kemal Özfirat

    2017-09-27

    Sep 27, 2017 ... Different types of accidents may occur in natural stone facilities during movement, dimensioning, cutting ... are numerous risk analysis methods such as preliminary ..... machine type and maintenance (MM) event, block control.

  20. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework...

  1. Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jebens, Martin; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    Flood hazards in coastal regions induce risks toward lives, property, economy and the environment. In need of sustainable and holistic actions to reduce risks, these should include innovative Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures. While differing on important...... flood events to exert pressure on the national government, and in a top-down approach the government could identify the needs among the civil society to include these in the decision-making process.......-structural measures is hampered by lack in coordination that should be improved to agree e.g. on an acceptable risk definition and to avoid duplicating efforts. To advance awareness and coordination between DRM and CCA and to improve measures, a bottom-up approach could by initiated by civil society using recent...

  2. Standardization and integration of ecological and human risk assessments at Department of Energy national laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breckenridge, R.P.; Berry, D.

    1995-01-01

    In 1990, the directors of twelve national laboratories operated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) chartered a steering group to address DOE's concerns about the effectiveness of any regulations driving the cost of environmental restoration and waste management. The goal of this presentation is to inform and to seek collaboration on the challenge of standardizing ecological and human health risk assessment approaches and development of an approach to address the differences between environmental remediation and restoration activities at DOE's waste management sites across the country. Recent changes in risk related regulations and budget cuts have prompted significant changes in DOE's approach to conducting and standardizing risk-based approaches for waste management. The steering group was established in 1990 to organize a broad, long-term educational outreach and research program focused on better science and public understanding of the risks associated with hazardous agents (chemical, biological, radiological, and physical) in the environment and the workplace. This presentation discusses the group's goal to (1) act as one resource for providing the technical basis for health and environmental standards; (2) catalyze a national effort to improve public understanding of risk and the importance of cost benefit analysis in evaluating mitigation of risk; (3) catalyze improvements in understanding of health and environmental effects of hazardous agents; and (4) analyze with regulatory agencies, industry, and the public the potential for evolution of risk-based consensus standard into federal and state environmental and occupational/public health regulations. Major accomplishments will be presented along with the group's agenda for standardizing risk, environmental, and occupational/public health standards

  3. Integrating Agricultural Risks Management Strategies in selected EU Partner Countries: Syria, Tunisia, Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Capitanio, Fabian; Adinolfi, Felice

    2014-01-01

    Dynamics and transitions in the agricultural sector of emerging countries are not well understood yet. A decade of major political and economic changes is challenging the Mediterranean Economies, affecting the primary sectors of transition economies which are largely influenced by recent trends. The resulting exposure of agriculture to risks has called great attention on risk management strategies and public intervention. We explore their role in three different economies with a view to a uni...

  4. Does market integration buffer risk, erode traditional sharing practices and increase inequality? A test among Bolivian forager-farmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurven, Michael; Jaeggi, Adrian V; von Rueden, Chris; Hooper, Paul L; Kaplan, Hillard

    2015-08-01

    Sharing and exchange are common practices for minimizing food insecurity in rural populations. The advent of markets and monetization in egalitarian indigenous populations presents an alternative means of managing risk, with the potential impact of eroding traditional networks. We test whether market involvement buffers several types of risk and reduces traditional sharing behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of the Bolivian Amazon. Results vary based on type of market integration and scale of analysis (household vs. village), consistent with the notion that local culture and ecology shape risk management strategies. Greater wealth and income were unassociated with the reliance on others for food, or on reciprocity, but wealth was associated with a greater proportion of food given to others (i.e., giving intensity) and a greater number of sharing partners (i.e., sharing breadth). Across villages, greater mean income was negatively associated with reciprocity, but economic inequality was positively associated with giving intensity and sharing breadth. Incipient market integration does not necessarily replace traditional buffering strategies but instead can often enhance social capital.

  5. Dispatching strategies for coordinating environmental awareness and risk perception in wind power integrated system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Jingliang; Zhou, Dequn; Zhou, Peng; Qian, Shuqu; Zhang, Mingming

    2016-01-01

    Wind power plays a significant role in economic and environmental operation of electric power system. Meanwhile, the variability and uncertainty characteristics of wind power generation bring technical and economical challenges for power system operation. In order to harmonize the relationship between environmental protection and risk management in power dispatching, this paper presents a stochastic dynamic economic emission dispatch model combining risk perception with environmental awareness of decision-makers by following the principle of chance-constrained programming. In this power dispatching model, the description of wind power uncertainty is derived from the probability statistic character of wind speed. Constraints-handling techniques as a heuristic strategy are embedded into non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. In addition, more information is digested from the Pareto optimum solution set by cluster analysis and fuzzy set theory. The simulation results eventually demonstrate that the increase of the share of wind power output will bring higher risk, though it is beneficial for economic cost and environmental protection. Since different risk perception and environmental awareness can possibly lead to diverse non-dominated solutions, decision-makers may choose an appropriate dispatching strategy according to their specific risk perception and environmental awareness. - Highlights: • A dispatch model combining environmental awareness and risk perception is proposed. • The uncertain characteristic of available wind power is determined. • Constraints-handling techniques are embedded into genetic algorithm. • An appropriate decision-making method is designed. • Dispatching strategies can be coordinated by the proposed model and method.

  6. Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

    2011-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

  7. The integration of the risk in the governance of urban projects: a key issue for a resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, E.; Deroubaix, J.-F.

    2012-04-01

    Despite a severe regulation concerning the building in flooding areas, 80% of these areas are already built in the Greater Paris (Paris, Val-de-Marne, Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint-Denis). The land use in flooding area is presented as one of the main solutions to solve the ongoing real estate pressure. For instance some of the industrial wastelands located along the river are currently in redevelopment and residential buildings are planned. So landuse in the flooding areas is currently a key issue in the development of the Greater Paris area. Tools and measures, structural or non-structural such as warning systems, barriers, etc do exist and could be a smart way to improve the resilience of the new urbanised areas. The technical solutions are available and efficient, but we notice that these tools are not much implemented. There is a lack of flood risk concern among the stakeholders and the inhabitants1. How landuse stakeholders could integrate the flood risk in the decision making process throughout the implementation of the urban project? Which type of governance favours an efficient development of good flood risk policy including prevention, protection and the management of the crisis? What is the "good" governance of the urban project e.g. enabling to take into account or not to forget the flood risk and to empower the (future) inhabitants? This inhabitants' empowerment includes the improvement of awareness (i.e. inhabitants being aware that they live in a flooded area) and the improvement of concern (i.e. inhabitants adopting the "right" behaviour when the risk occurs). In order to investigate how flood risk is or could be integrated in the project governance, we interviewed stakeholders (elected representatives, architects, property developers, etc.) and observed the integration or the vanishing of the risk throughout the project. In order to develop this topic we rely on a case study. The "Ardoines" is a project aiming at redeveloping an industrial site

  8. The Influence of External User Interdependence of Financial Statements, Possibility of Clients Facing Financial Difficulties, and Auditor Evaluation of Management Integrity To Acceptable Audit Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andini Sih Afsari Utami

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to analyze. Analyses the influence of external users reliance on financial statements, likelihood of financial difficulties and management integrity toward acceptable audit risk were performed with 10 public accountant office who had listed from Direktorat IAPI 2013. The sample used the “Gay” theory. The analyzed method in this research uses multiple linear. The result shown that performing external users reliance on financial statements significantly influences toward acceptable audit risk, likelihood of financial difficulties significantly influences toward acceptable audit risk, and management integrity significantly influences toward acceptable audit risk.

  9. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  10. Bridging the Arts and Computer Science: Engaging At-Risk Students through the Integration of Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Lisa; Klopfer, Michelle; Ernst, Jeremy V.

    2018-01-01

    Linux Laptop Orchestra (L2Ork), founded in 2009 in the Virginia Tech Music Department's Digital and Interactive Sound & Intermedia Studio, "explores the power of gesture, communal interaction, and the multidimensionality of arts, as well as technology's potential to seamlessly integrate arts and sciences with particular focus on K-12…

  11. Academic Integrity and Plagiarism: A Review of the Influences and Risk Situations for Health Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Hai; Emmerton, Lynne; McKauge, Leigh

    2013-01-01

    Health professions are increasingly focusing on the development of integrity and professionalism in students of Health disciplines. While it is expected that Health students will develop, and commit to, the highest standards of conduct as undergraduates, and henceforth through their careers, the pressures of assessment and external commitments may…

  12. Understanding Risk and Protective Factors for Child Maltreatment: The Value of Integrated, Population-Based Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; Needell, Barbara; Rhodes, Anne E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we argue for expanded efforts to integrate administrative data systems as a "practical strategy" for developing a richer understanding of child abuse and neglect. Although the study of child maltreatment is often critiqued for being atheoretical, we believe that a more pressing concern is the absence of population-based and…

  13. Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management : Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Herk, S.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood

  14. Delivering Integrated Flood Risk Management: Governance for collaboration, learning and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Herk, S.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and consequences of extreme flood events have increased rapidly worldwide in recent decades and climate change and economic growth are likely to exacerbate this trend. Flood protection measures alone cannot accommodate the future frequencies and impacts of flooding. Integrated flood

  15. Information Security Maturity as an Integral Part of ISMS based Risk Management Tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fetler, Ben; Harpes, Carlo

    2016-01-01

    Measuring the continuous improvement of Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) is often neglected as most organizations do not know how to extract key-indicators that could be used for this purpose. The underlying work presents a six-level maturity model which can be fully integrated in a

  16. Integrated Monitoring and Modeling of Carbon Dioxide Leakage Risk Using Remote Sensing, Ground-Based Monitoring, Atmospheric Models and Risk-Indexing Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, E. A.; Pickles, W. L.; Gouveia, F. J.; Bogen, K. T.; Rau, G. H.; Friedmann, J.

    2006-12-01

    Correct assessment of the potential for CO2 leakage to the atmosphere or near surface is key to managing the risk associated with CO2 storage. Catastrophic, point-source leaks, diffuse seepage, and low leakage rates all merit assessment. Smaller leaks may be early warnings of catastrophic failures, and may be sufficient to damage natural vegetation or crops. Small leaks also may lead to cumulative build-up of lethal levels of CO2 in enclosed spaces, such as basements, groundwater-well head spaces, and caverns. Working with our ZERT partners, we are integrating a variety of monitoring and modeling approaches to understand how to assess potential health, property and environmental risks across this spectrum of leakage types. Remote sensing offers a rapid technique to monitor large areas for adverse environmental effects. If it can be deployed prior to the onset of storage operations, remote sensing also can document baseline conditions against which future claims of environmental damage can be compared. LLNL has been using hyperspectral imaging to detect plant stress associated with CO2 gas leakage, and has begun investigating use of NASA's new satellite or airborne instrumentation that directly measures gas compositions in the atmosphere. While remote sensing techniques have been criticized as lacking the necessary resolution to address environmental problems, new instruments and data processing techniques are demonstrated to resolve environmental changes at the scale associated with gas-leakage scenarios. During the shallow low-flow- CO2 release field experiments planned by ZERT, for the first time, we will have the opportunity to ground- truth hyperspectral data by simultaneous measurement of changes in hyperspectral readings, soil and root zone microbiology, ambient air, soil and aquifer CO2 concentrations. When monitoring data appear to indicate a CO2 leakage event, risk assessment and mitigation of that event requires a robust and nearly real-time method for

  17. Relationships between parenting styles and risk behaviors in adolescent health: an integrative literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Kathy; Harrison, Lynda; Dashiff, Carol; Davies, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Research over the past 20 years suggests that the quality of the parent-adolescent relationship significantly affects the development of risk behaviors in adolescent health. The purpose of this paper is to present a review of studies published between 1996-2007 that address specific relationships between parenting styles and six priority adolescent risk behaviors. The review supports the substantial influence of parenting style on adolescent development. Adolescents raised in authoritative households consistently demonstrate higher protective and fewer risk behaviors than adolescents from non-authoritative families. There is also considerable evidence to show that parenting styles and behaviors related to warmth, communication and disciplinary practices predict important mediators, including academic achievement and psychosocial adjustment. Careful examination of parenting style patterns in diverse populations, particularly with respect to physical activity and unintentional injury, will be a critical next step in the development of efficacious, culturally tailored adolescent health promotion interventions.

  18. An integrated risk communication system for the transport of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minor, J.W. IV; Abkowitz, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the development and implementation of the prototype of an an internet-based, risk communication system prototype for the transport of hazardous materials. The system was designed with the objectives of: (1) incorporating functionality and features that are useful for meeting a variety of risk communication needs, and (2) demonstrating a high degree of interaction among system components, enabling customisation to meet the specific transport risk communication needs requirements of the host organisation. To demonstrate 'proof of concept', the system is applied to two scenarios: 1) building knowledge and awareness, focusing on how information can be entered, organised and disseminated to the public and other transport stakeholders, and 2) emergency management, utilising the system for securely managing information in responding to a transport incident involving hazardous materials transport incident. The effectiveness of the system in these applications is subsequently discussed. (author)

  19. Regional probabilistic nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling land GIS-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rigina, O.; Baklanov, A.

    2002-01-01

    The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. A new approach based on probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation was developed. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola NPP, because of: high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and relatively high probability of an airflow trajectory there, and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. (au)

  20. Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

    2006-01-01

    We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

  1. Integration Of Spa Tio- Temporal Analysis Of Rainfall And Community Information System To Reduce Landslide Risk In Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudibyakto .

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia is vulnerable to many type of disasters including natural and anthropogenic disasters. Indonesian seasonal rainfall also shows inter annual variation. Sediment-related disaster such as landslide is the mostji-equent disaster occurred and significantly was impacted to natural, human. and social environment. Although. many disaster mitigation e.Oorts have been conducted to reduce disaster risk there are still urgently need to improve the early 1varning .\\~ystem by communicating the risk into local community. Integration qf spatialtemporal analysis qf rainfall and disaster management information !o~vstem would be required to improve the better disaster management in Indonesia. Application of Disaster A1anagement Information System in the study area will presented including evacuation map that used by the local community.

  2. Integrated laboratory coagulation tests in hypercoagulation diagnosis and thrombosis risk assessment. Part I. The pathophysiology of thrombosis and hypercoagulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. N. Lipets

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Thrombosis is a fatal hemostatic disorders occurring in various conditions ranging from pregnancy and surgery to cancer, sepsis and heart attack. Despite the availability of different anticoagulants and accumulated clinical experience, proving their effectiveness, thrombosis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. This is largely due to the fact that conventional laboratory coagulation tests are not sufficiently sensitive to the hypercoagulable state, and they are difficult to use for assessing the risk of thrombosis. Specific molecular markers (D-dimers, fibrinopeptide, thrombin-antithrombin complex are more effective, but also have a large number of disadvantages. A possible solution is the use of integrated test, which simulate in vitro the majority of the physiological coagulation processes. In the first part of this paper the biochemical processes that cause the risk of thrombosis were discussed.

  3. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Lappa, D.A.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Chuang, T.Y.; Johnson, J.J.; Campbell, R.D.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Maslenikov, O.R.; Tiong, L.W.; Ravindra, M.K.; Kincaid, R.H.; Sues, R.H.; Putcha, C.S.

    1993-11-01

    This report describes the methodology used and the results obtained from the application of a simplified seismic risk methodology to the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2. This study is part of the Level I analysis being performed by the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP). Using the RMIEP developed event and fault trees, the analysis resulted in a seismically induced core damage frequency point estimate of 6.OE-7/yr. This result, combined with the component importance analysis, indicated that system failures were dominated by random events. The dominant components included diesel generator failures (failure to swing, failure to start, failure to run after started), and condensate storage tank

  4. Minimizing Investment Risk of Integrated Rail and Transit-Oriented-Development Projects over Years in a Linear Monocentric City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ding Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rail and transit-oriented-development (TOD projects are simultaneously optimized in this paper, with special consideration given to yearly variation and spatial and temporal correlation of population densities. In the proposed model, the objective is to minimize the investment risk of integrated rail and TOD projects with a given required expected return on investment. The investment risk is optimized based on closed-form solutions of the design variables, including rail line length, the number of TOD projects, and the number of housing units in each TOD project. The closed-form solutions are given explicitly under the assumption of social welfare maximization. It is found that underestimation exists for rail and TOD projects without consideration of the correlation of spatial and temporal population densities. TOD projects can greatly improve the return on investment of the rail operator. A numerical example is also presented.

  5. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herva, Marta [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Alvarez, Antonio [Industrias de Diseno Textil, S.A., Edificio Inditex, Av. de la Diputacion s/n, Poligono de Sabon, 15142 Arteixo - A Coruna (Spain); Roca, Enrique, E-mail: enrique.roca@usc.es [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: {yields} The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. {yields} The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. {yields} Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. {yields} Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. {yields} Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm{sup 2}) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm{sup 2}). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would

  6. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herva, Marta; Alvarez, Antonio; Roca, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. → The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. → Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. → Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. → Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm 2 ) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm 2 ). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would ensure safety conditions during the

  7. Human health risk assessment screening approach for evaluating contaminants at source control and integrator operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, B.G.; Frank, M.L.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, P.D.; White, R.K.; Purucker, S.T.; Redfearn, A.

    1992-10-01

    A more streamlined approach is proposed for executing the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Process. This approach recognizes the uncertainties associated with the process, particularly regarding the derivation of human health risk estimates. The approach is tailored for early identification of sites and contaminants of immediate concern, early remediation of such sites, and early identification of low-risk sites that can be eliminated from further investigations. The purpose is to hasten the clean-up process and do so in a cost-effective manner

  8. Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

    OpenAIRE

    Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

    2018-01-01

    As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

  9. Health risks for the population living in the vicinity of an Integrated Waste Management Facility: Screening environmental pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingo, José L.; Rovira, Joaquim; Vilavert, Lolita; Nadal, Martí; Figueras, María J.; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2015-01-01

    We performed a screening investigation to assess the human health risks of the Integrated Waste Management Facility (IWMF: mechanical–biological treatment (MBT) plant plus municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI); Ecoparc-3) of Barcelona (Spain). Air concentrations of pollutants potentially released by the MBT plant (VOCs and bioaerosols) and the MSWI (trace elements, PCDD/Fs and PCBs) were determined. Trace elements, PCDD/Fs and PCBs were also analyzed in soil samples. The concentrations of trace elements and bioaerosols were similar to those previously reported in other areas of similar characteristics, while formaldehyde was the predominant VOC. Interestingly, PCDD/F concentrations in soil and air were the highest ever reported near a MSWI in Catalonia, being maximum concentrations 10.8 ng WHO-TEQ/kg and 41.3 fg WHO-TEQ/m 3 , respectively. In addition, there has not been any reduction in soils, even after the closure of a power plant located adjacently. Human health risks of PCDD/F exposure in the closest urban nucleus located downwind the MSWI are up to 10-times higher than those nearby other MSWIs in Catalonia. Although results must be considered as very preliminary, they are a serious warning for local authorities. We strongly recommend to conduct additional studies to confirm these findings and, if necessary, to implement measures to urgently mitigate the impact of the MSWI on the surrounding environment. We must also state the tremendous importance of an individual evaluation of MSWIs, rather than generalizing their environmental and health risks. - Highlights: • Health risks of an Integrated Waste Management Facility in Catalonia are assessed. • PCDD/F exposure near this facility is up to 10-times higher than that near others. • Environmental monitoring of incineration plants should be performed case-by-case. • Since results are very preliminary, confirmatory studies should be conducted

  10. Health risks for the population living in the vicinity of an Integrated Waste Management Facility: Screening environmental pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domingo, José L., E-mail: joseluis.domingo@urv.cat [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Rovira, Joaquim [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Països Catalans 26, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia (Spain); Vilavert, Lolita; Nadal, Martí [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Figueras, María J. [Microbiology Unit, School of Medicine, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Schuhmacher, Marta [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Departament d' Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Països Catalans 26, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia (Spain)

    2015-06-15

    We performed a screening investigation to assess the human health risks of the Integrated Waste Management Facility (IWMF: mechanical–biological treatment (MBT) plant plus municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI); Ecoparc-3) of Barcelona (Spain). Air concentrations of pollutants potentially released by the MBT plant (VOCs and bioaerosols) and the MSWI (trace elements, PCDD/Fs and PCBs) were determined. Trace elements, PCDD/Fs and PCBs were also analyzed in soil samples. The concentrations of trace elements and bioaerosols were similar to those previously reported in other areas of similar characteristics, while formaldehyde was the predominant VOC. Interestingly, PCDD/F concentrations in soil and air were the highest ever reported near a MSWI in Catalonia, being maximum concentrations 10.8 ng WHO-TEQ/kg and 41.3 fg WHO-TEQ/m{sup 3}, respectively. In addition, there has not been any reduction in soils, even after the closure of a power plant located adjacently. Human health risks of PCDD/F exposure in the closest urban nucleus located downwind the MSWI are up to 10-times higher than those nearby other MSWIs in Catalonia. Although results must be considered as very preliminary, they are a serious warning for local authorities. We strongly recommend to conduct additional studies to confirm these findings and, if necessary, to implement measures to urgently mitigate the impact of the MSWI on the surrounding environment. We must also state the tremendous importance of an individual evaluation of MSWIs, rather than generalizing their environmental and health risks. - Highlights: • Health risks of an Integrated Waste Management Facility in Catalonia are assessed. • PCDD/F exposure near this facility is up to 10-times higher than that near others. • Environmental monitoring of incineration plants should be performed case-by-case. • Since results are very preliminary, confirmatory studies should be conducted.

  11. Integrated cryptosporidium assay to determine oocyst density, infectivity, and genotype for risk assessment of source and reuse water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Brendon; Fanok, Stella; Phillips, Renae; Swaffer, Brooke; Monis, Paul

    2015-05-15

    Cryptosporidium continues to be problematic for the water industry, with risk assessments often indicating that treatment barriers may fail under extreme conditions. However, risk analyses have historically used oocyst densities and not considered either oocyst infectivity or species/genotype, which can result in an overestimation of risk if the oocysts are not human infective. We describe an integrated assay for determining oocyst density, infectivity, and genotype from a single-sample concentrate, an important advance that overcomes the need for processing multiple-grab samples or splitting sample concentrates for separate analyses. The assay incorporates an oocyst recovery control and is compatible with standard primary concentration techniques. Oocysts were purified from primary concentrates using immunomagnetic separation prior to processing by an infectivity assay. Plate-based cell culture was used to detect infectious foci, with a monolayer washing protocol developed to allow recovery and enumeration of oocysts. A simple DNA extraction protocol was developed to allow typing of any wells containing infectious Cryptosporidium. Water samples from a variety of source water and wastewater matrices, including a semirural catchment, wastewater, an aquifer recharge site, and storm water, were analyzed using the assay. Results demonstrate that the assay can reliably determine oocyst densities, infectivity, and genotype from single-grab samples for a variety of water matrices and emphasize the varying nature of Cryptosporidium risk extant throughout source waters and wastewaters. This assay should therefore enable a more comprehensive understanding of Cryptosporidium risk for different water sources, assisting in the selection of appropriate risk mitigation measures. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  12. Development and Application of a Probabilistic Risk-Benefit Assessment Model for Infant Feeding Integrating Microbiological, Nutritional, and Chemical Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, Géraldine; Cummins, Enda; Guillou, Sandrine; Antignac, Jean-Philippe; Le Bizec, Bruno; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2017-12-01

    A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second-order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

    2015-01-01

    A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

  14. Risk Assessment along Supply Chain: A RFID and Wireless Sensor Network Integration Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Laurent GOMEZ; Maryline LAURENT; Ethmane EL MOUSTAINE

    2012-01-01

    Wireless Sensor Networks together with Radio Frequency Identification are promising technologies for supply chain management systems. They both provide supply chain players with goods tracking and monitoring functions along the chain. Whereas RFIDs are rather focusing on identification of goods (e.g., identification, classification), WSNs are meant to monitor and control the supply chain environment. Nevertheless, despite the interest for the supply chain management systems, their integration...

  15. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.Ch.; LeTreut, H.

    2002-07-01

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO 2 emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  16. Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

    2011-01-01

    Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

  17. Integrating Corporate Governance Concepts in the Classroom with the Risk Assessment Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elson, Raymond J.; O'Callaghan, Susanne; Walker, John P.

    2015-01-01

    The recession of 2008 and the demise of established financial firms served as a reminder that effective corporate governance is important to ensure that businesses remain as going concern. One key area is the implementation of effective enterprise-wide risk management practices. The resulting regulatory oversight enacted through the Dodd Frank Act…

  18. Understanding comorbidity among internalizing problems: Integrating latent structural models of psychopathology and risk mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankin, Benjamin L.; Snyder, Hannah R.; Gulley, Lauren D.; Schweizer, Tina H.; Bijttebier, Patricia; Nelis, Sabine; Toh, Gim; Vasey, Michael W.

    2016-01-01

    It is well known that comorbidity is the rule, not the exception, for categorically defined psychiatric disorders, and this is also the case for internalizing disorders of depression and anxiety. This theoretical review paper addresses the ubiquity of comorbidity among internalizing disorders. Our central thesis is that progress in understanding this co-occurrence can be made by employing latent dimensional structural models that organize both psychopathology as well as vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms and by connecting the multiple levels of risk and psychopathology outcomes together. Different vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms are hypothesized to predict different levels of the structural model of psychopathology. We review the present state of knowledge based on concurrent and developmental sequential comorbidity patterns among common discrete psychiatric disorders in youth, and then we advocate for the use of more recent bifactor dimensional models of psychopathology (e.g., p factor, Caspi et al., 2014) that can help to explain the co-occurrence among internalizing symptoms. In support of this relatively novel conceptual perspective, we review six exemplar vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms, including executive function, information processing biases, cognitive vulnerabilities, positive and negative affectivity aspects of temperament, and autonomic dysregulation, along with the developmental occurrence of stressors in different domains, to show how these vulnerabilities can predict the general latent psychopathology factor, a unique latent internalizing dimension, as well as specific symptom syndrome manifestations. PMID:27739389

  19. Integrating mHealth Mobile Applications to Reduce High Risk Drinking among Underage Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Donna M.; Cochran, Allyson R.; Kelly, John F.; Cornelius, Judith B.; Belk, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Objective: College students embrace mobile cell phones (MCPs) as a primary communication and entertainment device. The aim of this study was to investigate college students' perceptions toward using mHealth technology to deliver interventions to prevent high-risk drinking and associated consequences. Design/setting: Four focus group interviews…

  20. Integrated modeling of pesticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. Scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of pesticides and the risk those pesticides pose to the environment and non-target wildlife. We p...

  1. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  2. Mobile Device Management in the DOD Enterprise Network: Factors for Risk Management, Integration, and It Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Administration NFC Near Field Communications NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology NPRST Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology ...information technology (IT) system acquisition process to acquire a mobile device management (MDM) toolset to mitigate information assurance (IA) risks...method study to understand the concerns of federal information technology professionals who are knowledgeable on MDM and the acquisition

  3. Remote Lower White Matter Integrity Increases the Risk of Long-Term Cognitive Impairment After Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaapsmeerders, Pauline; Tuladhar, Anil M; Arntz, Renate M; Franssen, Sieske; Maaijwee, Noortje A M; Rutten-Jacobs, Loes C A; Schoonderwaldt, Hennie C; Dorresteijn, Lucille D A; van Dijk, Ewoud J; Kessels, Roy P C; de Leeuw, Frank-Erik

    2016-10-01

    Poststroke cognitive impairment occurs frequently in young patients with ischemic stroke (18 through 50 years of age). Accumulating data suggest that stroke is associated with lower white matter integrity remote from the stroke impact area, which might explain why some patients have good long-term cognitive outcome and others do not. Given the life expectancy of decades in young patients, we therefore investigated remote white matter in relation to long-term cognitive function. We included all consecutive first-ever ischemic stroke patients, left/right hemisphere, without recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack during follow-up, aged 18 through 50 years, admitted to our university medical center between 1980 and 2010. One hundred seventeen patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging scanning including a T1-weighted scan, a diffusion tensor imaging scan, and completed a neuropsychological assessment. Patients were compared with a matched stroke-free control group (age, sex, and education matched). Cognitive impairment was defined as >1.5 SD below the mean cognitive index score of controls and no cognitive impairment as ≤1 SD. Tract-Based Spatial Statistics was used to assess the white matter integrity (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity). About 11 years after ischemic stroke, lower remote white matter integrity was associated with a worse long-term cognitive performance. A lower remote white matter integrity, even in the contralesional hemisphere, was observed in cognitively impaired patients (n=25) compared with cognitively unimpaired patients (n=71). These findings indicate that although stroke has an acute onset, it might have long lasting effects on remote white matter integrity and thereby increases the risk of long-term cognitive impairment. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. THE RISKS IN SOCIO-PROFESSIONAL INTEGRATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE SUFFERING FROM AIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela G. CALTEA

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The intention in writing this article is to provide a general presentation relating to Romanian HIV infected young people social-professional integration. It will speak in particularly about Iassy.The topics are: teenage, respectively youth as a stage in human being development, general aspects related to AIDS/HIV infection, statistics that include general information about Romanian (Iassy HIV infected youth, legislation about HIV infected people rights, HIV infected young people discrimination in the social-professional integration and preventive measures against discrimination.HIV/AIDS infection should not be a barrier in socio-professional integration way, and if a person is qualified and prepared in the field he/she wants to work, than that person should have all the benefits to be accepted in that job.We consider that employers mentality is based on the lack of information, which generates prejudice, fear against infected people, they are afraid to get HIV or to lose the rest of employees. We think that this fact must be changed.