WorldWideScience

Sample records for integrating seasonal climate

  1. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  2. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate discontinued after October 2012. This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast

  3. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  4. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a

  5. The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

  6. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

    2014-12-02

    Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

  7. Seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kryjov, Vladimir N

    2012-01-01

    An overview of the current status of the operational seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia is presented. It is shown that the performance of existing climate models is rather poor in seasonal prediction for North Eurasia. Multi-model ensemble forecasts are more reliable than single-model ones; however, for North Eurasia they tend to be close to climatological ones. Application of downscaling methods may improve predictions for some locations (or regions). However, general improvement of the reliability of seasonal forecasts for North Eurasia requires improvement of the climate prediction models. (letter)

  8. Seasonal and decadal information towards climate services: EUPORIAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, Carlo; Hewitt, Chris

    2013-04-01

    Societies have always faced challenges and opportunities arising from variations in climate, and have often flourished or collapsed depending on their ability to adapt to such changes. Recent advances in our understanding and ability to forecast climate variability and climate change have meant that skilful predictions are beginning to be routinely made on seasonal to decadal (s2d) timescales. Such forecasts have the potential to be of great value to a wide range of decision-making, where outcomes are strongly influenced by variations in the climate. The European Commission have recently commissioned a major four year long project (EUPORIAS) to develop prototype end-to-end climate impact prediction services operating on a seasonal to decadal timescale, and assess their value in informing decision-making. EUPORIAS commenced on 1 November 2012, coordinated by the UK Met Office leading a consortium of 24 organisations representing world-class European climate research and climate service centres, expertise in impacts assessments and seasonal predictions, two United Nations agencies, specialists in new media, and commercial companies in climate-vulnerable sectors such as energy, water and tourism. The paper describes the setup of the project, its main outcome and some of the very preliminary results.

  9. Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

  10. Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

  11. Contingent valuation study of the benefits of seasonal climate forecasts for maize farmers in the Republic of Benin, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cocou Jaurès Amegnaglo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the economic benefits of seasonal climate forecasts in West Africa based on a random survey of 354 maize farmers and to use the contingent valuation method. Results indicate that farmers need accurate seasonal climate forecasts between 1 and 2 months before the onset of rains. The most desirable dissemination channels are radio, local elders, local farmer meetings and extension agents. The most likely used farming strategies are change of: planting date, crop acreage, crop variety, and production intensification. The vast majority of farmers are willing to pay for seasonal climate forecasts, and the average annual economic value of seasonal climate forecasts are about USD 5492 for the 354 sampled farmers and USD 66.5 million dollar at the national level. Furthermore, benefits of seasonal climate forecasts are likely to increase with better access to farmer based organisation, to extension services, to financial services, to modern communication tools, intensity of use of fertilizer and with larger farm sizes. Seasonal climate forecasts are a source of improvement of farmers’ performance and the service should be integrated in extension programmes and in national agricultural development agenda.

  12. National Assessment of Climate Resources for Tourism Seasonality in China Using the Tourism Climate Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Fang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is a very important industry, and it is deeply affected by climate. This article focuses on the role of climate in tourism seasonality and attempts to assess the impacts of climate resources on China’s tourism seasonality by using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI. Seasonal distribution maps of TCI scores indicate that the climates of most regions in China are comfortable for tourists during spring and autumn, while the climate conditions differ greatly in summer and winter, with “excellent”, “good”, “acceptable” and “unfavorable” existing almost by a latitudinal gradation. The number of good months throughout China varies from zero (the Tibetan Plateau area to 10 (Yunnan Province, and most localities have five to eight good months. Moreover, all locations in China can be classified as winter peak, summer peak and bi-modal shoulder peak. The results will provide some useful information for tourist destinations, travel agencies, tourism authorities and tourists.

  13. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  14. Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

  15. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, ...

  16. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  17. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  18. An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

  19. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schepen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  20. Changing seasonality patterns in Central Europe from Miocene Climate Optimum to Miocene Climate Transition deduced from the Crassostrea isotope archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harzhauser, Mathias; Piller, Werner E.; Müllegger, Stefan; Grunert, Patrick; Micheels, Arne

    2011-03-01

    The Western Tethyan estuarine oyster Crassostrea gryphoides is an excellent climate archive due to its large size and rapid growth. It is geologically long lived and allows a stable isotope-based insight into climatic trends during the Miocene. Herein we utilised the climate archive of 5 oyster shells from the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) and the subsequent Miocene Climate Transition (MCT) to evaluate changes of seasonality patterns. MCO shells exhibit highly regular seasonal rhythms of warm-wet and dry-cool seasons. Optimal conditions resulted in extraordinary growth rates of the oysters. δ 13C profiles are in phase with δ 18O although phytoplankton blooms may cause a slight offset. Estuarine waters during the MCO in Central Europe display a seasonal temperature range of c. 9-10 °C. Absolute water temperatures have ranged from 17 to 19 °C during cool seasons and up to 28 °C in warm seasons. Already during the early phase of the MCO, the growth rates are distinctly declining, although gigantic and extremely old shells have been formed at that time. Still, a very regular and well expressed seasonality is dominating the isotope profiles, but episodically occurring extreme climate events influence the environments. The seasonal temperature range is still c. 9 °C but the cool season temperature seems to be slightly lower (16 °C) and the warm season water temperature does not exceed c. 25 °C. In the later MCT at c. 12.5-12.0 Ma the seasonality pattern is breaking down and is replaced by successions of dry years with irregular precipitation events. No correlation between δ 18O and δ 13C is documented maybe due to a suboptimal nutrition level which would explain the low growth rates and small sizes. The amplitude of seasonal temperature range is decreasing to 5-8 °C. No clear cooling trend can be postulated for that time as the winter season water temperatures range from 15 to 20 °C. This may point to unstable precipitation rhythms on a multi-annual to

  1. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Pfeifer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B, some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation.

  2. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  3. Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, C. S.

    1997-01-01

    This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

  4. Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa, Mirian; Ines, Amor; Baethgen, Walter; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Han, Eunjin; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2015-04-01

    Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast. This study evaluates two methods for disaggregating seasonal climate forecasts into daily weather data: 1) a stochastic weather generator (CondWG), and 2) a forecast tercile resampler (FResampler). Both methods were used to generate 100 (with FResampler) and 110 (with CondWG) weather series/sequences for three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Simulated wheat yield is computed with the crop model CERES-wheat (Ritchie and Otter, 1985), which is included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at two locations in northeastern Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. Once simulated yields were obtained, an assessment of farmer's gross margin for different seasonal climate forecasts was accomplished to estimate production risks under different climate scenarios. This methodology allows farmers to assess the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast in IP prior to the crop growing season. The results of this study may have important implications on both, public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Hoogenboom, G. et al., 2010. The Decision

  5. Density and climate influence seasonal population dynamics in an Arctic ungulate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.; Moshøj, Charlotte; Forchhammer, Mads C.

    2016-01-01

    The locally migratory behavior of the high arctic muskox (Ovibos muschatus) is a central component of the breeding and winter survival strategies applied to cope with the highly seasonal arctic climate. However, altered climate regimes affecting plant growth are likely to affect local migration...... cover), forage availability (length of growth season), and the number of adult females available per male (operational sex ratio) influence changes in the seasonal density dependence, abundance, and immigration rate of muskoxen into the valley. The results suggested summer temperature as the major...... controlling factor in the seasonal, local-scale migration of muskoxen at Zackenberg. Specifically, higher summer temperatures, defined as the cumulative average daily positive degrees in June, July, and August, resulted in decreased density dependence and, consequently, increase in the seasonal abundance...

  6. Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

    2018-01-22

    Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the use of climate information favouring adaptation strategies. As climate variability and extremes have significant influence on agricultural production, the early prediction of severe weather events and unfavourable conditions can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects. Seasonal climate forecasts provide additional value for agricultural applications in several regions of the world. However, they currently play a very limited role in supporting agricultural decisions in Europe, mainly due to the poor skill of relevant surface variables. Here we show how a combined stress index (CSI), considering both drought and heat stress in summer, can predict maize yield in Europe and how land-surface initialised seasonal climate forecasts can be used to predict it. The CSI explains on average nearly 53% of the inter-annual maize yield variability under observed climate conditions and shows how concurrent heat stress and drought events have influenced recent yield anomalies. Seasonal climate forecast initialised with realistic land-surface achieves better (and marginally useful) skill in predicting the CSI than with climatological land-surface initialisation in south-eastern Europe, part of central Europe, France and Italy.

  7. Seasonal Climate Signals in Multiple Tree-Ring Parameters: A Pilot Study of Pinus ponderosa in the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, M.; Wise, E. K.; Keung, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions of past climate have played an integral role in assessments of historical climate change, and tree-ring widths (TRW) have a long history of use in this paleoclimate research due to their annual resolution, widespread availability, and sensitivity of growth processes to variation in temperature and water availability. Increasingly, studies have shown that additional tree-ring metrics—including earlywood and latewood widths (EW and LW, respectively), maximum latewood density, and the intensity of reflected blue light from latewood (BI)—can provide additional information on seasonal climatic variability that is not present in TRW alone due to different processes that affect growth in different parts of the growing season. Studies of these additional tree-ring metrics highlight their utility in climate reconstructions, but to date they have mostly been limited to a few tree species and regions. Here, we extend the range of previous studies on alternative tree-ring metrics by evaluating the seasonal climate signals in TRW, EW, LW, and BI of Pinus ponderosa at six semiarid sites surrounding the Columbia River basin in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Cores from each site were cross-dated and EW, LW, and TRW were measured using standard dendrochronological procedures. BI was obtained using a high-resolution flatbed scanner and CooRecorder software. To evaluate the unique climate processes and seasonalities contributing to different dendrochronological metrics, monthly temperature and precipitation from each site were obtained from the PRISM climate model and were correlated with each of the tree-ring metrics using the MATLAB program SEASCORR. We also evaluate the potential of using multiple tree-ring metrics (rather than a single proxy) in reconstructions of precipitation in the PNW. Initial results suggest that 1) tree growth at each site is water-limited but with substantial differences among the sites in the strength and seasonality of

  8. Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

    2004-11-01

    Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

  9. Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

  10. The Effect of Soil Temperature Seasonality on Climate Reconstructions from Paleosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, T. M.; Hren, M. T.; Sheldon, N. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate continental temperature reconstructions provide important constraints on climate sensitivity to changes in atmospheric pCO2, the timing and rates of tectonic uplift, and the driving mechanisms and feedbacks associated with major climate events. Temperature seasonality is an important variable to consider, because not only does it exert a strong control on the biosphere, but it can obfuscate changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) in the geologic record. In order to better understand the effect temperature seasonality has on paleosol temperature proxies, soil temperature data was compiled from over 200 stations that comprise the NCDC Soil Climate Analysis Network. Observed soil temperature variations were then compared to predicted soil temperature values based on normal seasonal air temperature trends. Approximately one quarter of sites record less temperature variation than predicted. This reduction in soil temperature seasonality is a result of warmer than predicted cold-season temperatures, driven by cold-season processes such as snow cover insulation. The reduction in soil temperature seasonality explains why pedo-transfer functions to break down below MAAT values of 6-8 °C. Greater than predicted soil temperature seasonality is observed at nearly half of the sites, driven primarily by direct heating of the soil surface by solar radiation. Deviations larger than 2 °C are not common until mean annual precipitation falls below 300 mm, suggesting that complications introduced by ground heating are primarily restricted to paleosols that formed in more arid environments. Clumped isotope measurements of pedogenic carbonate and bulk paleosol elemental data from a stacked series of paleosols spanning the Eocene-Oligocene in Northeastern Spain are also examined to demonstrate how the documented seasonal trends in modern soils can help inform paleo-applications.

  11. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  12. Northern Great Basin Seasonal Lakes: Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, M.; Eitel, J.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal alkaline lakes in southeast Oregon, northeast California, and northwest Nevada serve as important habitat for migrating birds utilizing the Pacific Flyway, as well as local plant and animal communities. Despite their ecological importance, and anecdotal suggestions that these lakes are becoming less reliable, little is known about the vulnerability of these lakes to climate change. Our research seeks to understand the vulnerability of Northern Great Basin seasonal lakes to climate change. For this, we will be using historical information from the European Space Agency's Global Surface Water Explorer and the University of Idaho's gridMET climate product, to build a model that allows estimating surface water extent and timing based on climate variables. We will then utilize downscaled future climate projections to model surface water extent and timing in the coming decades. In addition, an unmanned aerial system (UAS) will be utilized at a subset of dried basins to obtain precise 3D bathymetry and calculate water volume hypsographs, a critical factor in understanding the likelihood of water persistence and biogeochemical habitat suitability. These results will be incorporated into decision support tools that land managers can utilize in water conservation, wildlife management, and climate mitigation actions. Future research may pair these forecasts with animal movement data to examine fragmentation of migratory corridors and species-specific impacts.

  13. The effect of seasonal changes and climatic factors on suicide attempts of young people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkaya-Kalayci, Türkan; Vyssoki, Benjamin; Winkler, Dietmar; Willeit, Matthaeus; Kapusta, Nestor D; Dorffner, Georg; Özlü-Erkilic, Zeliha

    2017-11-15

    Seasonal changes and climatic factors like ambient temperature, sunlight duration and rainfall can influence suicidal behavior. This study analyses the relationship between seasonal changes and climatic variations and suicide attempts in 2131 young patients in Istanbul, Turkey. In our study sample, there was an association between suicide attempts in youths and seasonal changes, as suicide attempts occurred most frequently during summer in females as well as in males. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between the mean temperature over the past 10 days and temperature at the index day and suicide attempts in females. After seasonality effects were mathematically removed, the mean temperature 10 days before a suicide attempt remained significant in males only, indicating a possible short-term influence of temperature on suicide attempts. This study shows an association between suicide attempts of young people and climatic changes, in particular temperature changes as well as seasonal changes. Therefore, the influence of seasonal changes and climatic factors on young suicide attempters should get more attention in research to understand the biopsychosocial mechanisms playing a role in suicide attempts of young people. As suicide attempts most frequently occur in young people, further research is of considerable clinical importance.

  14. Visualization of uncertainties and forecast skill in user-tailored seasonal climate predictions for agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Gubler, Stefanie; Spierig, Christoph; Flubacher, Moritz; Maurer, Felix; Quevedo, Karim; Escajadillo, Yury; Avalos, Griña; Liniger, Mark A.; Schwierz, Cornelia

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal climate forecast products potentially have a high value for users of different sectors. During the first phase (2012-2015) of the project CLIMANDES (a pilot project of the Global Framework for Climate Services led by WMO [http://www.wmo.int/gfcs/climandes]), a demand study conducted with Peruvian farmers indicated a large interest in seasonal climate information for agriculture. The study further showed that the required information should by precise, timely, and understandable. In addition to the actual forecast, two complex measures are essential to understand seasonal climate predictions and their limitations correctly: forecast uncertainty and forecast skill. The former can be sampled by using an ensemble of climate simulations, the latter derived by comparing forecasts of past time periods to observations. Including uncertainty and skill information in an understandable way for end-users (who are often not technically educated) poses a great challenge. However, neglecting this information would lead to a false sense of determinism which could prove fatal to the credibility of climate information. Within the second phase (2016-2018) of the project CLIMANDES, one goal is to develop a prototype of a user-tailored seasonal forecast for the agricultural sector in Peru. In this local context, the basic education level of the rural farming community presents a major challenge for the communication of seasonal climate predictions. This contribution proposes different graphical presentations of climate forecasts along with possible approaches to visualize and communicate the associated skill and uncertainties, considering end users with varying levels of technical knowledge.

  15. Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

    2016-01-01

    Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

  16. Examining Dynamical Processes of Tropical Mountain Hydroclimate, Particularly During the Wet Season, Through Integration of Autonomous Sensor Observations and Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Fernandez, A.; Mark, B. G.; Covert, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Peru is facing imminent water resource issues as glaciers retreat and demand increases, yet limited observations and model resolution hamper understanding of hydrometerological processes on local to regional scales. Much of current global and regional climate studies neglect the meteorological forcing of lapse rates (LRs) and valley and slope wind dynamics on critical components of the Peruvian Andes' water-cycle, and herein we emphasize the wet season. In 2004 and 2005 we installed an autonomous sensor network (ASN) within the glacierized Llanganuco Valley, Cordillera Blanca (9°S), consisting of discrete, cost-effective, automatic temperature loggers located along the valley axis and anchored by two automatic weather stations. Comparisons of these embedded hydrometeorological measurements from the ASN and climate modeling by dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) elucidate distinct diurnal and seasonal characteristics of the mountain wind regime and LRs. Wind, temperature, humidity, and cloud simulations suggest that thermally driven up-valley and slope winds converging with easterly flow aloft enhance late afternoon and evening cloud development which helps explain nocturnal wet season precipitation maxima measured by the ASN. Furthermore, the extreme diurnal variability of along-valley-axis LR, and valley wind detected from ground observations and confirmed by dynamical downscaling demonstrate the importance of realistic scale parameterizations of the atmospheric boundary layer to improve regional climate model projections in mountainous regions. We are currently considering to use intermediate climate models such as ICAR to reduce computing cost and we continue to maintain the ASN in the Cordillera Blanca.

  17. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  18. Long Series of GNSS Integrated Precipitable Water as a Climate Change Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kruczyk Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates information potential contained in tropospheric delay product for selected International GNSS Service (IGS stations in climatologic research. Long time series of daily averaged Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW can serve as climate indicator. The seasonal model of IPW change has been adjusted to the multi-year series (by the least square method. Author applied two modes: sinusoidal and composite (two or more oscillations. Even simple sinusoidal seasonal model (of daily IPW values series clearly represents diversity of world climates. Residuals in periods from 10 up to 17 years are searched for some long-term IPW trend – self-evident climate change indicator. Results are ambiguous: for some stations or periods IPW trends are quite clear, the following years (or the other station not visible. Method of fitting linear trend to IPW series does not influence considerably the value of linear trend. The results are mostly influenced by series length, completeness and data (e.g. meteorological quality. The longer and more homogenous IPW series, the better chance to estimate the magnitude of climatologic IPW changes.

  19. An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

    2016-04-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  20. Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Judi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain-on-snow events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgment that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information are available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient designs considering an uncertain climate future. This research demonstrates an approach for an integrated, multi-model, and multi-scale simulation to evaluate future flood impacts. This research used regional climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, USA. Using the proposed integrated modeling approach, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to the earlier winter season. Moreover, clear non-stationarities in future flood risk were discovered under various climate scenarios. This research provides a clear approach for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provides actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

  1. Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

  2. The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

    2017-12-01

    How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

  3. The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown Weiss, Edith

    1982-04-01

    Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the management of energy supply, even if the forecasts were more reliable and detailed than at present.On the other hand, reliable forecasts could be useful to state and local governments both as a signal to adopt long-term measures to increase the efficiency of energy use and to initiate short-term measures to reduce energy demand in anticipation of a weather-induced energy crisis.To be useful for these purposes, state governments would need better data on energy demand patterns and available energy supplies, staff competent to interpret climate forecasts, and greater incentive to conserve. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is not likely to be constrained by fear of legal action by those claiming to be injured by a possible incorrect forecast.

  4. Effects of seasonal and climate variations on calves' thermal comfort and behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripon, Iulian; Cziszter, Ludovic Toma; Bura, Marian; Sossidou, Evangelia N

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the effect of season and climate variations on thermal comfort and behaviour of 6-month-old dairy calves housed in a semi-opened shelter to develop animal-based indicators for assessing animal thermal comfort. The ultimate purpose was to further exploit the use of those indicators to prevent thermal stress by providing appropriate care to the animals. Measurements were taken for winter and summer seasons. Results showed that season significantly influenced (P ≤ 0.01) the lying down behaviour of calves by reducing the time spent lying, from 679.9 min in winter to 554.1 min in summer. Moreover, season had a significant influence (P ≤ 0.01) on feeding behaviour. In detail, the total length of feeding periods was shorter in winter, 442.1 min in comparison to 543.5 min in summer. Time spent drinking increased significantly (P ≤ 0.001), from 11.9 min in winter to 26.9 min in summer. Furthermore, season had a significant influence (P ≤ 0.001) on self grooming behaviour which was 5.5 times longer in duration in winter than in summer (1,336 s vs 244 s). It was concluded that calves' thermal comfort is affected by seasonal and climate variations and that this can be assessed by measuring behaviour with animal-based indicators, such as lying down, resting, standing up, feeding, rumination, drinking and self grooming. The indicators developed may be a useful tool to prevent animal thermal stress by providing appropriate housing and handling to calves under seasonal and climate challenge.

  5. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  6. Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

  7. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Brown, Foster Irving; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.; Carvalho, Fabrício Alvim; Castro, Wendeson; Chagas, Rubens Koloski; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Costa, Flavia Regina Capellotto; Couralet, Camille; Silva Mauricio, Da Paulo Henrique; Dalitz, Helmut; Castro, De Vinicius Resende; Freitas Milani, De Jaçanan Eloisa; Oliveira, De Edilson Consuelo; Souza Arruda, De Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Finger, César Augusto Guimarães; Franco, Augusto César; Freitas Júnior, João Lima; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Lima De Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Kanieski, Maria Raquel; Kho, Lip Khoon; Koenig, Jennifer; Kohler, Sintia Valerio; Krepkowski, Julia; Lemos-filho, José Pires; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Maeda, Eduardo Eijji; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R.B.; Marques, Marcia C.M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Melgaço, Karina Liana Lisboa; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Ross, Michael; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Silva, Williamar Rodrigues; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Toledo, José Julio; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer De Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Zanon, Magda Lea Bolzan; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.

    2016-01-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68

  8. Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

    2015-06-01

    Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

  9. [Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan

    2018-01-01

    Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.

  10. Climate Research and Seasonal Forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarhule, Aondover; Lamb, Peter J.

    2003-12-01

    Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968 73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano Sahel (10° 18°N) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz&;s provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz&;s negative “tentative conclusion” and more positive “preliminary assessment” of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic

  11. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  12. The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

  13. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    ). In their recent paper entitled 'An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in Eurasian high latitudes', Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) provided detailed analysis of soil temperature data to assess 1930-2000 trends in seasonal freezing depth. The data were obtained from 387 Soviet non-permafrost meteorological stations. The authors performed systematic, quality-controlled, integrative analysis over the entire former Soviet Union domain. The long-term changes in depth of seasonal freezing were discussed in relation to such forcing variables as air temperature, degree days of freezing/thawing, snow depth and summer precipitation as well as modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatially average approach adopted for the study provides a generalized continental-scale trend. The study greatly improves, expands and extends previous 1956-90 analysis of the ground thermal regime over the Eurasian high latitudes (Frauenfeld et al 2004). Although the work of Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) is the most comprehensive assessment of the continental-scale long-term trends in seasonal freezing available to date, more detailed analysis is needed to determine the effect of climate change on seasonally frozen ground. It should be noted that, in addition to the variables considered for analysis, other non-climatic factors affect the depth of freezing propagation. Unlike the surface, which is influenced by the climate directly, the ground even at shallow depth receives a climatic signal that is substantially modified by edaphic processes, contributing to highly localized thermal sensitivities of the ground to climatic forcing. Subsurface properties, soil moisture, and snow and vegetation covers influence the depth of freezing. Topography also plays an important role in establishing the ground thermal regime. It is an important determinant of the amount of heat received by the ground surface, affects the distribution of snow and vegetation, and influences the

  14. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

    2017-03-21

    A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

  15. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabien H. Wagner; Bruno Herault; Damien Bonal; Clement Stahl; Liana O. Anderson; Timothy R. Baker; Gabriel Sebastian Becker; Hans Beeckman; Danilo Boanerges Souza; Paulo Cesar Botosso; David M. J. S. Bowman; Achim Brauning; Benjamin Brede; Foster Irving Brown; Jesus Julio Camarero; Plinio Barbosa Camargo; Fernanda C. G. Cardoso; Fabricio Alvim Carvalho; Wendeson Castro; Rubens Koloski Chagas; Jerome Chave; Emmanuel N. Chidumayo; Deborah A. Clark; Flavia Regina Capellotto Costa; Camille Couralet; Paulo Henrique da Silva Mauricio; Helmut Dalitz; Vinicius Resende de Castro; Jacanan Eloisa de Freitas Milani; Edilson Consuelo de Oliveira; Luciano de Souza Arruda; Jean-Louis Devineau; David M. Drew; Oliver Dunisch; Giselda Durigan; Elisha Elifuraha; Marcio Fedele; Ligia Ferreira Fedele; Afonso Figueiredo Filho; Cesar Augusto Guimaraes Finger; Augusto Cesar Franco; Joao Lima Freitas Junior; Franklin Galvao; Aster Gebrekirstos; Robert Gliniars; Paulo Mauricio Lima de Alencastro Graca; Anthony D. Griffiths; James Grogan; Kaiyu Guan; Jurgen Homeier; Maria Raquel Kanieski; Lip Khoon Kho; Jennifer Koenig; Sintia Valerio Kohler; Julia Krepkowski; Jose Pires Lemos-Filho; Diana Lieberman; Milton Eugene Lieberman; Claudio Sergio Lisi; Tomaz Longhi Santos; Jose Luis Lopez Ayala; Eduardo Eijji Maeda; Yadvinder Malhi; Vivian R. B. Maria; Marcia C. M. Marques; Renato Marques; Hector Maza Chamba; Lawrence Mbwambo; Karina Liana Lisboa Melgaco; Hooz Angela Mendivelso; Brett P. Murphy; Joseph O' Brien; Steven F. Oberbauer; Naoki Okada; Raphael Pelissier; Lynda D. Prior; Fidel Alejandro Roig; Michael Ross; Davi Rodrigo Rossatto; Vivien Rossi; Lucy Rowland; Ervan Rutishauser; Hellen Santana; Mark Schulze; Diogo Selhorst; Williamar Rodrigues Silva; Marcos Silveira; Susanne Spannl; Michael D. Swaine; Jose Julio Toledo; Marcos Miranda Toledo; Marisol Toledo; Takeshi Toma; Mario Tomazello Filho; Juan Ignacio Valdez Hernandez; Jan Verbesselt; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Gregoire Vincent; Carolina Volkmer de Castilho; Franziska Volland; Martin Worbes; Magda Lea Bolzan Zanon; Luiz E. O. C. Aragao

    2016-01-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter...

  16. Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

  17. Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippa McNeil

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

  18. Recent changes in seasonal variations of climate within the range of northern caribou populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H. Whitfield

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is one region where it is expected that the impacts of a globally changing climate will be readily observed. We present results that indicate that climate derivatives of potential significance to caribou changed during the past 50 years. Many temperature derivatives reflect the increasing overall temperature in the Arctic such as decreases in the number of days with low temperatures, increases in the number of days with thaw, and days with extremely warm temperatures. Other derivatives reflect changes in the precipitation regime such as days with heavy precipitation and number of days when rain fell on snow. Our results indicate that specific caribou herds from across the Arctic were subjected to different variations of these derivatives in different seasons in the recent past. Examination of temperature and precipitation at finer time-steps than annual or monthly means, shows that climatic variations in the region are neither consistent through the seasons nor across space. Decadal changes in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are shown for selected herds. A process for assessing caribou-focused climate derivatives is proposed.

  19. A new classification of large-scale climate regimes around the Tibetan Plateau based on seasonal circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Gang Dai

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop a large-scale climate classification for investigating the characteristics of the climate regimes around the Tibetan Plateau based on seasonal precipitation, moisture transport and moisture divergence using in situ observations and ERA40 reanalysis data. The results indicate that the climate can be attributed to four regimes around the Plateau. They situate in East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and the semi-arid zone in northern Central Asia throughout the dryland of northwestern China, in addition to the Köppen climate classification. There are different collocations of seasonal temperature and precipitation: 1 in phase for the East and South Asia monsoon regimes, 2 anti-phase for the Central Asia regime, 3 out-of-phase for the westerly regime. The seasonal precipitation concentrations are coupled with moisture divergence, i.e., moisture convergence coincides with the Asian monsoon zone and divergence appears over the Mediterranean-like arid climate region and westerly controlled area in the warm season, while it reverses course in the cold season. In addition, moisture divergence is associated with meridional moisture transport. The northward/southward moisture transport corresponds to moisture convergence/divergence, indicating that the wet and dry seasons are, to a great extent, dominated by meridional moisture transport in these regions. The climate mean southward transport results in the dry-cold season of the Asian monsoon zone and the dry-warm season, leading to desertification or land degradation in Central Asia and the westerly regime zone. The mean-wind moisture transport (MMT is the major contributor to total moisture transport, while persistent northward transient eddy moisture transport (TEMT plays a key role in dry season precipitation, especially in the Asian monsoon zone. The persistent TEMT divergence is an additional mechanism of the out-of-phase collocation in the westerly regime zone. In addition

  20. Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in Coupled Climate-Vegetation Regional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavio Justino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous work suggests that changes in seasonality could lead to a 70% reduction in the extent of the Amazon rainforest. The primary cause of the dieback of the rainforest is a lengthening of the dry season due to a weakening of the large-scale tropical circulation. Here we examine these changes in the seasonal cycle. Under present day conditions the Amazon climate is characterized by a zonal separation of the dominance of the annual and semi-annual seasonal cycles. This behavior is strongly modified under greenhouse warming conditions, with the annual cycle becoming dominant throughout the Amazon basin, increasing differences between the dry and wet seasons. In particular, there are substantial changes in the annual cycle of temperature due to the increase in the temperature of the warmest month, but the lengthening of the dry season is believed to be particularly important for vegetation-climate feedbacks. Harmonic analysis performed to regional climate model simulations yields results that differ from the global climate model that it is forced from, with the regional model being more sensitive to changes in the seasonal cycle.

  1. Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

  2. Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2018-03-01

    In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

  3. The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Arran; Jean, Kévin; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Biey, Joseph; Van Kerkhove, Maria; Ferguson, Neil; Garske, Tini

    2018-03-01

    Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike's Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of

  4. Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool for Disease (CAMDT-Disease) for seasonal climate forecast-based crop disease risk management in agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K. H.; Lee, S.; Han, E.; Ines, A. V. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) is a decision support system (DSS) tool that aims to facilitate translations of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to crop responses such as yield and water stress. Since CAMDT is a software framework connecting different models and algorithms with SCF information, it can be easily customized for different types of agriculture models. In this study, we replaced the DSSAT-CSM-Rice model originally incorporated in CAMDT with a generic epidemiological model, EPIRICE, to generate a seasonal pest outlook. The resulting CAMDT-Disease generates potential risks for selected fungal, viral, and bacterial diseases of rice over the next months by translating SCFs into agriculturally-relevant risk information. The integrated modeling procedure of CAMDT-Disease first disaggregates a given SCF using temporal downscaling methods (predictWTD or FResampler1), runs EPIRICE with the downscaled weather inputs, and finally visualizes the EPIRICE outputs as disease risk compared to that of the previous year and the 30-year-climatological average. In addition, the easy-to-use graphical user interface adopted from CAMDT allows users to simulate "what-if" scenarios of disease risks over different planting dates with given SCFs. Our future work includes the simulation of the effect of crop disease on yields through the disease simulation models with the DSSAT-CSM-Rice model, as disease remains one of the most critical yield-reducing factors in the field.

  5. Perceived and Actual Motivational Climate of a Mastery-Involving Sport Education Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastie, Peter; Sinelnikov, Oleg; Wallhead, Tristan; Layne, Todd

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to implement a Sport Education season designed to be mastery-involving and examine the degree of congruence between the objective measure of the presented climate with the students' perceptions of the saliency of this motivational climate. Twenty-one male high school students (mean age of 15.9 years) and one expert…

  6. Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

    2016-01-01

    Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

  7. Birth seasonality and offspring production in threatened neotropical primates related to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiederholt, R.; Post, E.

    2011-01-01

    Given the threatened status of many primate species, the impacts of global warming on primate reproduction and, consequently, population growth should be of concern. We examined relations between climatic variability and birth seasonality, offspring production, and infant sex ratios in two ateline primates, northern muriquis, and woolly monkeys. In both species, the annual birth season was delayed by dry conditions and El Ni??o years, and delayed birth seasons were linked to lower birth rates. Additionally, increased mean annual temperatures were associated with lower birth rates for northern muriquis. Offspring sex ratios varied with climatic conditions in both species, but in different ways: directly in woolly monkeys and indirectly in northern muriquis. Woolly monkeys displayed an increase in the proportion of males among offspring in association with El Ni??o events, whereas in northern muriquis, increases in the proportion of males among offspring were associated with delayed onset of the birth season, which itself was related, although weakly, to warm, dry conditions. These results illustrate that global warming, increased drought frequency, and changes in the frequency of El Ni??o events could limit primate reproductive output, threatening the persistence and recovery of ateline primate populations. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2010-01-01

    The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

  9. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  10. Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert

    2017-11-01

    Hydropower production requires optimal dam and reservoir management to prevent flooding damage and avoid operation losses. In a northern climate, where spring freshet constitutes the main inflow volume, seasonal forecasts can help to establish a yearly strategy. Long-term hydrological forecasts often rely on past observations of streamflow or meteorological data. Another alternative is to use ensemble meteorological forecasts produced by climate models. In this paper, those produced by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast) System 4 are examined and bias is characterized. Bias correction, through the linear scaling method, improves the performance of the raw ensemble meteorological forecasts in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Then, three seasonal ensemble hydrological forecasting systems are compared: (1) the climatology of simulated streamflow, (2) the ensemble hydrological forecasts based on climatology (ESP) and (3) the hydrological forecasts based on bias-corrected ensemble meteorological forecasts from System 4 (corr-DSP). Simulated streamflow computed using observed meteorological data is used as benchmark. Accounting for initial conditions is valuable even for long-term forecasts. ESP and corr-DSP both outperform the climatology of simulated streamflow for lead times from 1 to 5 months depending on the season and watershed. Integrating information about future meteorological conditions also improves monthly volume forecasts. For the 1-month lead time, a gain exists for almost all watersheds during winter, summer and fall. However, volume forecasts performance for spring varies from one watershed to another. For most of them, the performance is close to the performance of ESP. For longer lead times, the CRPS skill score is mostly in favour of ESP, even if for many watersheds, ESP and corr-DSP have comparable skill. Corr-DSP appears quite reliable but, in some cases, under-dispersion or bias is observed. A more complex bias

  11. Role of the seasonal cycle in coupling climate and carbon cycling in subanartic zone

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Monteiro, PMS

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing evidence in the Southern Ocean that mesoscales and seasonal scales play an important role in the coupling of ocean carbon cycling and climate. The seasonal cycle is one of the strongest modes of variability in different...

  12. Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redding, David W; Tiedt, Sonia; Lo Iacono, Gianni; Bett, Bernard; Jones, Kate E

    2017-07-19

    Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. © 2017 The Authors.

  13. Parameterization of a bucket model for soil-vegetation-atmosphere modeling under seasonal climatic regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romano

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are

  14. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  15. Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swenson, Sean; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    Satellite gravimetric observations of monthly changes in continental water storage are compared with outputs from five climate models. All models qualitatively reproduce the global pattern of annual storage amplitude, and the seasonal cycle of global average storage is reproduced well, consistent with earlier studies. However, global average agreements mask systematic model biases in low latitudes. Seasonal extrema of low‐latitude, hemispheric storage generally occur too early in the models, and model‐specific errors in amplitude of the low‐latitude annual variations are substantial. These errors are potentially explicable in terms of neglected or suboptimally parameterized water stores in the land models and precipitation biases in the climate models.

  16. Do planetary seasons play a role in attaining stable climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Kasper Wibeck; Bohr, Jakob

    2018-05-01

    A simple phenomenological account for planetary climate instabilities is presented. The description is based on the standard model where the balance of incoming stellar radiation and outward thermal radiation is described by the effective planet temperature. Often, it is found to have three different points, or temperatures, where the influx of radiation is balanced with the out-flux, even with conserved boundary conditions. Two of these points are relatively long-term stable, namely the point corresponding to a cold climate and the point corresponding to a hot climate. In a classical sense these points are equilibrium balance points. The hypothesis promoted in this paper is the possibility that the intermediate third point can become long-term stable by being driven dynamically. The initially unstable point is made relatively stable over a long period by the presence of seasonal climate variations.

  17. Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Thoughts on Training Next Generation Climate Science Integrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, G. M.; Brugger, J.; Gordon, E. S.; Barsugli, J. J.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    For more than a decade, stakeholder needs assessments and reports, including the recent National Climate Assessment, have pointed out the need for climate "science translators" or "science integrators" who can help bridge the gap between the cultures and contexts of researchers and decision-makers. Integration is important for exchanging and enhancing knowledge, building capacity to use climate information in decision making, and fostering more robust planning for decision-making in the context of climate change. This talk will report on the characteristics of successful climate science integrators, and a variety of models for training the upcoming generation of climate science integrators. Science integration characteristics identified by an experienced vanguard in the U.S. include maintaining credibility in both the scientific and stakeholder communities, a basic respect for stakeholders demonstrated through active listening, and a deep understanding of the decision-making context. Drawing upon the lessons of training programs for Cooperative Extension, public health professionals, and natural resource managers, we offer ideas about training next generation climate science integrators. Our model combines training and development of skills in interpersonal relations, communication of science, project implementation, education techniques and practices - integrated with a strong foundation in disciplinary knowledge.

  18. The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

  19. 20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

  20. Strongly seasonal Proterozoic glacial climate in low palaeolatitudes: Radically different climate system on the pre-Ediacaran Earth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George E. Williams

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Proterozoic (pre-Ediacaran glaciations occurred under strongly seasonal climates near sea level in low palaeolatitudes. Metre-scale primary sand wedges in Cryogenian periglacial deposits are identical to those actively forming, through the infilling of seasonal (winter thermal contraction-cracks in permafrost by windblown sand, in present-day polar regions with a mean monthly air temperature range of 40 °C and mean annual air temperatures of −20 °C or lower. Varve-like rhythmites with dropstones in Proterozoic glacial successions are consistent with an active seasonal freeze–thaw cycle. The seasonal (annual oscillation of sea level recorded by tidal rhythmites in Cryogenian glacial successions indicates a significant seasonal cycle and extensive open seas. Palaeomagnetic data determined directly for Proterozoic glacial deposits and closely associated rocks indicate low palaeolatitudes: Cryogenian deposits in South Australia accumulated at ≤10°, most other Cryogenian deposits at 54° during Proterozoic low-latitude glaciations, whereby the equator would be cooler than the poles, on average, and global seasonality would be greatly amplified.

  1. Local and cross-seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Sarah P.; Ries, Leslie; Oberhasuer, Karen S.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Zipkin, Elise F.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site-specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site-specific crop cover, and county-level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross-seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county-level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide-resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site-specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine-resolution temporal fluctuations in population-level responses to environmental

  2. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  3. Seasonal streamflow prediction by a combined climate-hydrologic system for river basins of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Yu, Pao-Shan

    2010-06-01

    SummaryA combined, climate-hydrologic system with three components to predict the streamflow of two river basins of Taiwan at one season (3-month) lead time for the NDJ and JFM seasons was developed. The first component consists of the wavelet-based, ANN-GA model (Artificial Neural Network calibrated by Genetic Algorithm) which predicts the seasonal rainfall by using selected sea surface temperature (SST) as predictors, given that SST are generally predictable by climate models up to 6-month lead time. For the second component, three disaggregation models, Valencia and Schaake (VS), Lane, and Canonical Random Cascade Model (CRCM), were tested to compare the accuracy of seasonal rainfall disaggregated by these three models to 3-day time scale rainfall data. The third component consists of the continuous rainfall-runoff model modified from HBV (called the MHBV) and calibrated by a global optimization algorithm against the observed rainfall and streamflow data of the Shihmen and Tsengwen river basins of Taiwan. The proposed system was tested, first by disaggregating the predicted seasonal rainfall of ANN-GA to rainfall of 3-day time step using the Lane model; then the disaggregated rainfall data was used to drive the calibrated MHBV to predict the streamflow for both river basins at 3-day time step up to a season's lead time. Overall, the streamflow predicted by this combined system for the NDJ season, which is better than that of the JFM season, will be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resources of these two river basins of Taiwan.

  4. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  5. Impacts of Seasonal Patterns of Climate on Recurrent Fluctuations in Tourism Demand: Evidence from Aruba

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridderstaat, J.R.; Oderber, M.; Croes, R.; Nijkamp, P.; Martens, P.

    2014-01-01

    This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using

  6. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

    2017-03-01

    Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

  7. Assessing the Impact of Forest Change and Climate Variability on Dry Season Runoff by an Improved Single Watershed Approach: A Comparative Study in Two Large Watersheds, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiping Hou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest change have been published for centuries, yet partitioning the hydrological effects of forest change, climate variability and other factors in a large watershed remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a single watershed approach combining the modified double mass curve (MDMC and the time series multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMAX to separate the impact of forest change, climate variability and other factors on dry season runoff variation in two large watersheds in China. The Zagunao watershed was examined for the deforestation effect, while the Meijiang watershed was examined to study the hydrological impact of reforestation. The key findings are: (1 both deforestation and reforestation led to significant reductions in dry season runoff, while climate variability yielded positive effects in the studied watersheds; (2 the hydrological response to forest change varied over time due to changes in soil infiltration and evapotranspiration after vegetation regeneration; (3 changes of subalpine natural forests produced greater impact on dry season runoff than alteration of planted forests. These findings are beneficial to water resource and forest management under climate change and highlight a better planning of forest operations and management incorporated trade-off between carbon and water in different forests.

  8. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  9. Seasonality of livebirths and climatic factors in Italian regions (1863-1933

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Ruiu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Birth seasonality is a phenomenon that characterizes almost all the populations of the world. In spite of this, the causes underlying these seasonal fluctuations represent an as yet unsolved puzzle. Two main theoretical approaches have been proposed to explain birth seasonality. The first encompasses a social explanation and emphasizes the role of social, economic and cultural factors in determining the optimal moment (from a social perspective for conception (e.g., according to the cycle of agricultural workload, religious festivity, marriage seasonality, etc.. The second theoretical approach encompasses an environmental explanation and focuses on the role that climatic factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall, light intensity, etc. play in determining the optimal moment of conception from a biological perspective. Our paper may be collocated in the latter strand of the literature. The aim is to investigate the effects of temperature on conceptions, and subsequently on the seasonality of livebirths, while controlling for a possible social confounding effect, i.e. the seasonal pattern of marriage. To achieve this end, we empirically investigate the role of temperature as well as that of marriage seasonality in Italian regions for the period stretching from the Italian unification to the eve of World War II. We find that extreme temperatures (both cold and hot negatively affect the number of births. At the same time, marriage seasonality also seems to be an important explicative factor of the seasonal fluctuation of live births.

  10. Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

    2018-02-01

    The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

  11. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  12. World climate patterns in grassland and savanna and their relation to growing seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kirk Steinhorst

    1977-11-01

    Full Text Available The climate at eleven IBP savanna or grassland study sites from five continents are described and principal components analysis is used to compare them. A multivariate linear discriminant function based on mean monthly precipitation, mean monthly temperature, latitude and altitude, is used to predict the length of the growing season at each site. At most sites, the actual and predicted start and end of the growing season agreed closely. It is concluded that growing season on a world-wide basis may be predicted fairly reliably from a small number of abiotic variables by means of a multivariate discriminant function.

  13. Seasonal changes in climatic parameters and their relationship with the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Thomsen, R.W.

    2008-01-01

    The seasonal variation in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease is well recognized, but little is known about its relationship with actual changes in climatic parameters. In this 8-year longitudinal population-based study in Denmark, a harmonic sinusoidal regression model was used...... to examine whether preceding changes in climatic parameters corresponded with subsequent variations in the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia, independently of seasonal variation. The study shows that changes in temperature can be used to closely predict peaks in the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia...

  14. Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2014-05-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

  15. Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of

  16. The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

    2013-10-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

  17. A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Jacobs

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality and space (geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios.

  18. Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

  19. How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viel, Christian; Beaulant, Anne-Lise; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Céron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative climate services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed a prototype that aimed to provide to water resource managers some tailored information to better anticipate the coming season. It is based on a forecasting system, built on a refined hydrological suite, forced by a coupled seasonal forecast model. It particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction on river basins all over the French territory. This paper presents the work we have done with "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of the management of 4 great reservoirs on the upper Seine Basin. First, we present the co-design phase, which means the translation of classical climate outputs into several indices, relevant to influence the stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, we detail the evaluation of the impact of the forecast on the DMP. This evaluation is based on an experiment realised in collaboration with the stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed some past decisions, in three different contexts: without any forecast, with a forecast A and with a forecast B. One of forecast A and B really contained seasonal forecast, the other only contained random forecasts taken from past climate. This placebo experiment, realised in a blind test, allowed us to calculate promising skill scores of the DMP based on seasonal forecast in comparison to a classical approach based on climatology, and to EPTG SGL current practice.

  20. Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

    2017-03-01

    Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

  1. Impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows in 134 catchments in the river Rhine basin using an ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.; Booij, Martijn J.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows were analysed for 134 sub-catchments covering the River Rhine basin upstream of the Dutch-German border. Three seasonality indices for low flows were estimated, namely the seasonality ratio (SR), weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD) and

  2. Thermal comfort of people in the hot and humid area of China-impacts of season, climate, and thermal history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y; Chen, H; Wang, J; Meng, Q

    2016-10-01

    We conducted a climate chamber study on the thermal comfort of people in the hot and humid area of China. Sixty subjects from naturally ventilated buildings and buildings with split air conditioners participated in the study, and identical experiments were conducted in a climate chamber in both summer and winter. Psychological and physiological responses were observed over a wide range of conditions, and the impacts of season, climate, and thermal history on human thermal comfort were analyzed. Seasonal and climatic heat acclimatization was confirmed, but they were found to have no significant impacts on human thermal sensation and comfort. The outdoor thermal history was much less important than the indoor thermal history in regard to human thermal sensation, and the indoor thermal history in all seasons of a year played a key role in shaping the subjects' sensations in a wide range of thermal conditions. A warmer indoor thermal history in warm seasons produced a higher neutral temperature, a lower thermal sensitivity, and lower thermal sensations in warm conditions. The comfort and acceptable conditions were identified for people in the hot and humid area of China. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Impact of climate seasonality on catchment yield: A parameterization for commonly-used water balance formulas

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lavenne, Alban; Andréassian, Vazken

    2018-03-01

    This paper examines the hydrological impact of the seasonality of precipitation and maximum evaporation: seasonality is, after aridity, a second-order determinant of catchment water yield. Based on a data set of 171 French catchments (where aridity ranged between 0.2 and 1.2), we present a parameterization of three commonly-used water balance formulas (namely, Turc-Mezentsev, Tixeront-Fu and Oldekop formulas) to account for seasonality effects. We quantify the improvement of seasonality-based parameterization in terms of the reconstitution of both catchment streamflow and water yield. The significant improvement obtained (reduction of RMSE between 9 and 14% depending on the formula) demonstrates the importance of climate seasonality in the determination of long-term catchment water balance.

  4. On the use and potential use of seasonal to decadal climate predictions for decision-making in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Marta Bruno; Dessai, Suraje

    2014-05-01

    The need for climate information to help inform decision-making in sectors susceptible to climate events and impacts is widely recognised. In Europe, developments in the science and models underpinning the study of climate variability and change have led to an increased interest in seasonal to decadal climate predictions (S2DCP). While seasonal climate forecasts are now routinely produced operationally by a number of centres around the world, decadal climate predictions are still in its infancy restricted to the realm of research. Contrary to other regions of the world, where the use of these types of forecasts, particularly at seasonal timescales, has been pursued in recent years due to higher levels of predictability, little is known about the uptake and climate information needs of end-users regarding S2DCP in Europe. To fill this gap we conducted in-depth interviews with experts and decision-makers across a range of European sectors, a workshop with European climate services providers, and a systematic literature review on the use of S2DCP in Europe. This study is part of the EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale (EUPORIAS) project which aims to develop semi-operational prototypes of impact prediction systems in Europe on seasonal to decadal timescales. We found that the emerging landscape of users and potential users of S2DCP in Europe is complex and heterogeneous. Differences in S2DCP information needs across and within organisations and sectors are largely underpinned by factors such as the institutional and regulatory context of the organisations, the plethora of activities and decision-making processes involved, the level of expertise and capacity of the users, and the availability of resources within the organisations. In addition, although the use of S2DCP across Europe is still fairly limited, particular sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, water, (re)insurance, and transport are taking the lead on

  5. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

    2018-03-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

  6. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  7. Circular Migration as Climate Change Adaptation: Reconceptualising New Zealand´s and Australia’s Seasonal Worker Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Brickenstein

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper looks into an aspect of adaptation, namely the role of the circular migration as climate change adaptation. It focuses on two of the Pacific region’s recently well -known seasonal labor schemes, Namely Australia’s Seasonal Workers Program (SWP and New Zealand ‘s recognized Seasonal Employer Scheme (RSE, and asks if beyond the current goals the schemes May be reconceptualsed as adaptation programs responsive not only towards developmental and economic Concerns but the wider (and interconnected With the first two climate change challenges. According to MacDermott and Opeskin, labor mobility schemes, for the sending country focus on the “development perspective “such as (a Employment Opportunities, (b Regular benefits of Remittances and (c skills enhancement, while receiving countries country can meet the challenges posed by labor shortages in seasonal industries where “a reliable workforce is lacking”.

  8. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  9. Simulated Vegetation Response to Climate Change in California: The Importance of Seasonal Production Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Pitts, B.

    2013-12-01

    MC1 dynamic global vegetation model simulates vegetation response to climate change by simulating vegetation production, soil biogeochemistry, plant biogeography and fire. It has been applied at a wide range of spatial scales, yet the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated vegetation production, which drives the model's response to climate change, has not been examined in detail. We ran MC1 for California at a relatively fine scale, 30 arc-seconds, for the historical period (1895-2006) and for the future (2007-2100), using downscaled data from four CMIP3-based climate projections: A2 and B1 GHG emissions scenarios simulated by PCM and GFDL GCMs. The use of these four climate projections aligns our work with a body of climate change research work commissioned by the California Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. The four climate projections vary not only in terms of changes in their annual means, but in the seasonality of projected climate change. We calibrated MC1 using MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011 as a guide, and adapting a published technique for adjusting simulated vegetation production by increasing the simulated plant rooting depths. We evaluated the simulation results by comparing the model output for the historical period with several benchmark datasets, summarizing by EPA Level 3 Ecoregions. Multi-year summary statistics of model predictions compare moderately well with Kuchler's potential natural vegetation map, National Biomass and Carbon Dataset, Leenhouts' compilation of fire return intervals, and, of course, the MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011. When we compared MC1's monthly NPP values with MODIS monthly GPP data (2000-2011), however, the seasonal patterns compared very poorly, with NPP/GPP ratio for spring (Mar-Apr-May) often exceeding 1, and the NPP/GPP ratio for summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) often flattening to zero. This suggests MC1's vegetation production algorithms are overly biased for spring production at the cost of summer production. We

  10. Impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows in 134 catchments in the River Rhine basin using an ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Demirel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows were analysed for 134 sub-catchments covering the River Rhine basin upstream of the Dutch-German border. Three seasonality indices for low flows were estimated, namely the seasonality ratio (SR, weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD and weighted persistence (WP. These indices are related to the discharge regime, timing and variability in timing of low flow events respectively. The three indices were estimated from: (1 observed low flows; (2 simulated low flows by the semi-distributed HBV model using observed climate as input; (3 simulated low flows using simulated inputs from seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs for the current climate (1964–2007; (4 simulated low flows using simulated inputs from seven combinations of GCMs and RCMs for the future climate (2063–2098 including three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These four cases were compared to assess the effects of the hydrological model, forcing by different climate models and different emission scenarios on the three indices. Significant differences were found between cases 1 and 2. For instance, the HBV model is prone to overestimate SR and to underestimate WP and simulates very late WMODs compared to the estimated WMODs using observed discharges. Comparing the results of cases 2 and 3, the smallest difference was found for the SR index, whereas large differences were found for the WMOD and WP indices for the current climate. Finally, comparing the results of cases 3 and 4, we found that SR decreases substantially by 2063–2098 in all seven sub-basins of the River Rhine. The lower values of SR for the future climate indicate a shift from winter low flows (SR > 1 to summer low flows (SR < 1 in the two Alpine sub-basins. The WMODs of low flows tend to be earlier than for the current climate in all sub-basins except for the Middle Rhine and Lower Rhine sub

  11. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Hsin-I Hsiao; Man-Ser Jan; Hui-Ju Chi

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 201...

  12. Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-07-01

    Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %-248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

  13. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

  14. Amount, composition and seasonality of dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen export from agriculture in contrasting climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graeber, Daniel; Meerhof, Mariana; Zwirnmann, Elke

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural catchments are potentially important but often neglected sources of dissolved organic matter (DOM), of which a large part is dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON). DOC is an important source of aquatic microbial respiration and DON may be an important source of nitrogen...... to aquatic ecosystems. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive studies on the amount, composition and seasonality of DOM export from agricultural catchments in different climates. The aim of our study was to assess the amount, composition and seasonality of DOM in a total of four streams in the wet......-temperate and subtropical climate of Denmark and Uruguay, respectively. In each climate, we investigated one stream with extensive agriculture (mostly pasture) and one stream with intensive agriculture (mostly intensively used arable land) in the catchment. We sampled each stream taking grab samples fortnightly for two...

  15. Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Tingjun; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Wang, Kang; Cao, Bin; Zhong, Xinyue; Su, Hang; Mu, Cuicui

    2017-05-01

    The response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change has repercussions for the surface energy and water balance, ecosystems, the carbon cycle, and soil nutrient exchange. Despite its importance, the response of soil freeze depth to climate change is largely unknown. This study employs the Stefan solution and observations from 845 meteorological stations to investigate the response of variations in soil freeze depth to climate change across China. Observations include daily air temperatures, daily soil temperatures at various depths, mean monthly gridded air temperatures, and the normalized difference vegetation index. Results show that soil freeze depth decreased significantly at a rate of -0.18 ± 0.03 cm yr-1, resulting in a net decrease of 8.05 ± 1.5 cm over 1967-2012 across China. On the regional scale, soil freeze depth decreases varied between 0.0 and 0.4 cm yr-1 in most parts of China during 1950-2009. By investigating potential climatic and environmental driving factors of soil freeze depth variability, we find that mean annual air temperature and ground surface temperature, air thawing index, ground surface thawing index, and vegetation growth are all negatively associated with soil freeze depth. Changes in snow depth are not correlated with soil freeze depth. Air and ground surface freezing indices are positively correlated with soil freeze depth. Comparing these potential driving factors of soil freeze depth, we find that freezing index and vegetation growth are more strongly correlated with soil freeze depth, while snow depth is not significant. We conclude that air temperature increases are responsible for the decrease in seasonal freeze depth. These results are important for understanding the soil freeze-thaw dynamics and the impacts of soil freeze depth on ecosystem and hydrological process.

  16. Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thai, Pham Quang; Choisy, Marc; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Weiss, Daniel J; Boni, Maciej F; Horby, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings

  17. Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changnon, David; Ritsche, Michael; Elyea, Karen; Shelton, Steve; Schramm, Kevin

    2000-09-01

    This paper illustrates a key lesson related to most uses of long-range climate forecast information, namely that effective weather-related decision-making requires understanding and integration of weather information with other, often complex factors. Northern Illinois University's heating plant manager and staff meteorologist, along with a group of meteorology students, worked together to assess different types of available information that could be used in an autumn natural gas purchasing decision. Weather information assessed included the impact of ENSO events on winters in northern Illinois and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) long-range climate outlooks. Non-weather factors, such as the cost and available supplies of natural gas prior to the heating season, contribute to the complexity of the natural gas purchase decision. A decision tree was developed and it incorporated three parts: (a) natural gas supply levels, (b) the CPC long-lead climate outlooks for the region, and (c) an ENSO model developed for DeKalb. The results were used to decide in autumn whether to lock in a price or ride the market each winter. The decision tree was tested for the period 1995-99, and returned a cost-effective decision in three of the four winters.

  18. Phylogenetic influences on leaf trait integration in Pelargonium (Geraniaceae): convergence, divergence, and historical adaptation to a rapidly changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Cynthia S; Martínez-Cabrera, Hugo I; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Mocko, Kerri; Marais, Elizabeth M; Schlichting, Carl D

    2013-07-01

    Trait integration may improve prediction of species and lineage responses to future climate change more than individual traits alone, particularly when analyses incorporate effects of phylogenetic relationships. The South African genus Pelargonium contains divergent major clades that have radiated along the same seasonal aridity gradient, presenting the opportunity to ask whether patterns of evolution in mean leaf trait values are achieved through the same set of coordinated changes among traits in each clade. Seven leaf traits were measured on field-collected leaves from one-third of the species (98) of the genus. Trait relationships were examined using phylogenetic regression within major clades. Disparity analysis determined whether the course of trait evolution paralleled historical climate change events. Divergence in mean trait values between sister clades A1 and A2 was consistent with expectations for leaves differing in longevity, despite strong similarity between clades in trait interactions. No traits in either clade exhibited significant relationships with multivariate climate axes, with one exception. Species in clades C and A2 included in this study occupied similar environments. These clades had similar values of individual trait means, except for δ(13)C, but they exhibited distinctive patterns of trait integration. Differing present-day patterns of trait integration are consistent with interpretations of adaptive responses to the prevailing climate at the time of each clade's origin. These differing patterns of integration are likely to exert strong effects on clade-level responses to future climate change in the winter rainfall region of South Africa.

  19. Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Petrova, Desislava; García-Díez, Markel; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J; Mejía, Raúl; Regato, Mary; Rodó, Xavier

    2017-07-01

    El Niño and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika. In this study, we used climate forecasts to predict the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in the city of Machala, following one of the strongest El Niño events on record. We incorporated precipitation, minimum temperature, and Niño3·4 index forecasts in a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model to predict dengue incidence. The model was initiated on Jan 1, 2016, producing monthly dengue forecasts until November, 2016. We accounted for misreporting of dengue due to the introduction of chikungunya in 2015, by using active surveillance data to correct reported dengue case data from passive surveillance records. We then evaluated the forecast retrospectively with available epidemiological information. The predictions correctly forecast an early peak in dengue incidence in March, 2016, with a 90% chance of exceeding the mean dengue incidence for the previous 5 years. Accounting for the proportion of chikungunya cases that had been incorrectly recorded as dengue in 2015 improved the prediction of the magnitude of dengue incidence in 2016. This dengue prediction framework, which uses seasonal climate and El Niño forecasts, allows a prediction to be made at the start of the year for the entire dengue season. Combining active surveillance data with routine dengue reports improved not only model fit and performance, but also the accuracy of benchmark estimates based on historical seasonal averages. This study advances the state-of-the-art of climate services for the health sector, by showing the potential value of incorporating climate information in the public health decision-making process in Ecuador. European Union

  20. Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yanling; Achberger, Christine; Linderholm, Hans W

    2011-01-01

    Using high-quality precipitation data from 524 stations, the trends of a set of precipitation variables during the main rain season (May-September) from 1961 to 2008 for different climate regions in China were analysed. However, different characteristics were displayed in different regions of China. In most temperate monsoon regions (north-eastern China), total rain-season precipitation and precipitation days showed decreasing trends; positive tendencies in precipitation intensity were, however, noted for most stations in this region. It is suggested that the decrease in rain-season precipitation is mainly related to there being fewer rain days and a change towards drier conditions in north-eastern China, and as a result, the available water resources have been negatively affected in the temperate monsoon regions. In most subtropical and tropical monsoon climate regions (south-eastern China), the rain-season precipitation and precipitation days (11-50, with > 50 mm) showed slightly positive trends. However, precipitation days with ≤ 10 mm decreased in these regions. Changes towards wetter conditions in this area, together with more frequent heavy rainfall events causing floods, have a severe impact on peoples' lives and socio-economic development. In general, the rain-season precipitation, precipitation days and rain-season precipitation intensity had all increased in the temperate continental and plateau/mountain regions of western China. This increase in rain-season precipitation has been favourable to pasture growth.

  1. Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermid, Sonali P.; Dileepkumar, Guntuku; Murthy, K. M. Dakshina; Nedumaran, S.; Singh, Piara; Srinivasa, Chukka; Gangwar, B.; Subash, N.; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Zubair, Lareef; hide

    2015-01-01

    South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for

  2. Making the Climate Count: Climate Policy Integration and Coherence in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Kivimaa, Paula; Mickwitz, Per

    2009-01-01

    Tackling climate change in Finland and other industrialised countries requires major changes in production processes and consumption patterns. These changes will not take place unless climate change becomes a crucial factor in general and sector-specific policy-making. In this report climate policy integration in Finland is studied at different levels of policy-making: at the national level, regionally in Kymenlakso and the Metropolitan Area, as well as in the city of Helsinki and the town of...

  3. Real-time monitoring of smallholder farmer responses to intra-seasonal climate variability in central Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, N.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    While international metrics of food security and water availability are generated as spatial averages at the regional to national levels, climate variability impacts are differentially felt at the household level. This project investigated scales of variability of climate impacts on smallholder farmers using social and environmental data in central Kenya. Using sub-daily real-time environmental measurements to monitor smallholder agriculture, we investigated how changes in seasonal precipitation affected food security around Laikipia county from September 2015 to present. We also conducted SMS-based surveys of over 700 farmers to understand farmers' decision-making within the growing season. Our results highlight field-scale heterogeneity in biophysical and social factors governing crop yields using locally sensed real-time environmental data and weekly farmer-reported information about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and crop yields. Our preliminary results show relationships between changes in seasonal precipitation, NDVI, and soil moisture related to crop yields and decision-making at several scales. These datasets present a unique opportunity to collect highly spatially and temporally resolved information from data-poor regions at the household level.

  4. Season-specific climate signal and reconstruction from a new tree-ring network in the southwestern U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, D.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Meko, D. M.; Stahle, D. W.; Faulstich, H.; Leavitt, S. W.; Touchan, R.; Castro, C. L.; Carrillo, C.

    2011-12-01

    Our research group has updated existing tree-ring collections from over 50 sampling sites in the southwestern U.S. The new and archived specimens, carefully dated with dendrochronology, have been analyzed for width variations of "earlywood" and "latewood." These are the two components of annual rings in conifers that form in spring and summer, respectively. The network of primary tree-ring data has been used to develop a suite of well-replicated chronologies that extend through the 2008 growing season and are sensitive to the season-specific climate variability of the Southwest. Correlation function analysis indicates that the earlywood chronologies are closely related to cool season (October-April) precipitation variability and the chronologies derived from latewood are generally sensitive to precipitation and temperature conditions during the warm season (June-August). These proxy data originate from biological organisms and are not without bias; however, they do constitute a new means for evaluating the recent paleoclimatic history of the North American summer monsoon. The monsoon is a major component of the region's climate, impacting social and environmental systems and delivering up to 60% of the annual precipitation in the southwestern U.S. We have developed latewood-based retrodictions of monsoon precipitation that explain over half of the variance in the instrumental record, pass standard verification tests, and point to periods of persistent drought and wetness during the last 300-500 years. These reconstructions are being used to evaluate the monsoon's long-term spatiotemporal variability and its relationship to cool season climate and the major modes of ocean-atmosphere variability.

  5. Predicting optimum crop designs using crop models and seasonal climate forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, D; de Voil, P; Hudson, D; Brown, J N; Hayman, P; Marrou, H; Meinke, H

    2018-02-02

    Expected increases in food demand and the need to limit the incorporation of new lands into agriculture to curtail emissions, highlight the urgency to bridge productivity gaps, increase farmers profits and manage risks in dryland cropping. A way to bridge those gaps is to identify optimum combination of genetics (G), and agronomic managements (M) i.e. crop designs (GxM), for the prevailing and expected growing environment (E). Our understanding of crop stress physiology indicates that in hindsight, those optimum crop designs should be known, while the main problem is to predict relevant attributes of the E, at the time of sowing, so that optimum GxM combinations could be informed. Here we test our capacity to inform that "hindsight", by linking a tested crop model (APSIM) with a skillful seasonal climate forecasting system, to answer "What is the value of the skill in seasonal climate forecasting, to inform crop designs?" Results showed that the GCM POAMA-2 was reliable and skillful, and that when linked with APSIM, optimum crop designs could be informed. We conclude that reliable and skillful GCMs that are easily interfaced with crop simulation models, can be used to inform optimum crop designs, increase farmers profits and reduce risks.

  6. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  7. The role of seasonal, climatic and meteorological conditions in modifying nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    One of the most important factors which influence the ingestion doses after an accidental release of radionuclides is the season of the year at which the release occurs. This is demonstrated with some examples for German conditions. This seasonal effect depends strongly on the growing periods of the different plants. Therefore it is influenced by the climatic conditions which vary to a large degree in the different countries causing very different growing periods. The influence of the meteorological conditions during and after the passing of a radioactive cloud on the initial contamination of the plants is discussed

  8. Will seasonal and climatic conditions influence living habits and socio-economic activities in such a way that nuclear accident are affected

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeverstam, U.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses to which extent climatic and seasonal effects can influence living habits and socio-economic activities in such a way that consequences of a nuclear accident might be affected. A number of examples from Sweden are given, related to dwellings (building standards and location), diet, seasonal effects in agriculture and tourism. The reindeer are discussed separately. Although climate and season do change man's habits in a way relevant to accident consequences, the conclusion of this paper is that in most cases this mechanism is severely mixed with other, sometimes more important ones

  9. The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

    2015-05-01

    A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

  10. Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in Coupled Climate-Vegetation Regional Model

    OpenAIRE

    Flavio Justino; Frode Stordal; Edward K. Vizy; Kerry H. Cook; Marcos P. S. Pereira

    2016-01-01

    Previous work suggests that changes in seasonality could lead to a 70% reduction in the extent of the Amazon rainforest. The primary cause of the dieback of the rainforest is a lengthening of the dry season due to a weakening of the large-scale tropical circulation. Here we examine these changes in the seasonal cycle. Under present day conditions the Amazon climate is characterized by a zonal separation of the dominance of the annual and semi-annual seasonal cycles. This behavior is strongly ...

  11. Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and

  12. Socio-hydrological model to inform community adaptation to seasonal drought and climate variability in rural agricultural watersheds in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hund, S. V.; Johnson, M. S.; Morillas, L.; McDaniels, T.; Romero Valpreda, J.; Allen, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate variability and seasonal droughts associated with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and increasing water demand due to growing population are leading to serious water conflicts in the wet-dry tropics of Central America. Integrated methods are needed to understand the linkages of these complex socio-hydrological systems and design reliable adaption strategies in a period of global change. With increasing pressure on surface and groundwater resources during long annual dry seasons, rural agricultural communities suffer water shortages, especially in those years preceded by wet seasons with lower rainfall (and reduced groundwater recharge). To support community resilience to rainfall variability and droughts, we conducted a combination of fieldwork (development of hydrologic monitoring system and local stakeholder cooperation), and hydrological modeling for two watersheds with a shared aquifer (Potrero and Caimital) in Northwestern Costa Rica. The agricultural land use of the region and the many rural villages that draw directly on their local water resource and live in close interaction with their watersheds necessitated a socio-hydrological systems approach. In this talk we present results from our hydrologic modeling, for which we used the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model and locally recorded data. With the integrated water supply and demand features of the WEAP model, we were able to synthesize both the hydrological system and the societal system (specifically, household and agricultural water use), and show feedbacks such as that water use tends to increase during the dry season, likely exacerbating water shortages issues. Further, applying a range of ENSO related rainfall scenarios to the model demonstrated that community adaptation will become in particular important in response to lower water availability in future El Niño years. In collaboration with local stakeholders, we identified a set of feasible adaptation strategies to seasonal

  13. Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2017-04-01

    We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal

  14. Is Information Enough? User Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Sub{sub S}aharan Africa, Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto; Kingamkono, Robert; Hochobeb, Ben

    2000-05-01

    Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Nino events and their impact on climate variability. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines how farmers received and used the forecasts in the agricultural season of 1997/1998. It also summarises a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa. Comparison of case studies across south Africa revealed differences in forecast dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. However, improving these strategies and the capacity to respond to the forecasts would yield net profit to agriculture in southern Africa. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there clearly is a need for improved seasonal forecasts and improved information dissemination.

  15. The influence of the albedo-temperature feedback on climate sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Oerlemans, J.

    1995-01-01

    A vertically integrated, zonally averaged energy-balance climate model coupled to a two-dimensional ocean model with prescribed overturning pattern is employed to assess the seasonally and latitudinally varying response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing. Since the sensitivity

  16. Growing Season Conditions Mediate the Dependence of Aspen on Redistributed Snow Under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation regimes in many semiarid ecosystems are becoming increasingly dominated by winter rainfall as a result of climate change. Across these regions, snowpack plays a vital role in the distribution and timing of soil moisture availability. Rising temperatures will result in a more uniform distribution of soil moisture, advanced spring phenology, and prolonged growing seasons. Productive and wide ranging tree species like aspen, Populus tremuloides, may experience increased vulnerability to drought and mortality resulting from both reduced snowpack and increased evaporative demand during the growing season. We simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen stands spanning the rain:snow transition zone in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (RCCZO) in southwest Idaho, USA. Within the RCCZO, the total amount of precipitation has remained unchanged over the past 50 years, however the percentage of the precipitation falling as snow has declined by approximately 4% per decade at mid-elevation sites. The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate aspen NPP at three stands located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. After adjusting precipitation inputs to account for the redistribution of snow, we assessed climate change impacts on future aspen productivity. Mid-century (2046-2065) aspen NPP was simulated using temperature projections from a multi-model average under high emission conditions using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set. While climate change simulations indicated over a 20% decrease in annual NPP for some years, NPP rates for other mid-century years remained relatively unchanged due to variations in growing season conditions. Mid-century years with the largest decreases in NPP typically showed increased spring transpiration rates resulting from earlier leaf flush combined with warmer spring conditions. During these years, the onset of drought stress occurred

  17. A study of the effect of seasonal climatic factors on the electrical resistivity response of three experimental graves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jervis, John R.; Pringle, Jamie K.

    2014-09-01

    Electrical resistivity surveys have proven useful for locating clandestine graves in a number of forensic searches. However, some aspects of grave detection with resistivity surveys remain imperfectly understood. One such aspect is the effect of seasonal changes in climate on the resistivity response of graves. In this study, resistivity survey data collected over three years over three simulated graves were analysed in order to assess how the graves' resistivity anomalies varied seasonally and when they could most easily be detected. Thresholds were used to identify anomalies, and the ‘residual volume' of grave-related anomalies was calculated as the area bounded by the relevant thresholds multiplied by the anomaly's average value above the threshold. The residual volume of a resistivity anomaly associated with a buried pig cadaver showed evidence of repeating annual patterns and was moderately correlated with the soil moisture budget. This anomaly was easiest to detect between January and April each year, after prolonged periods of high net gain in soil moisture. The resistivity response of a wrapped cadaver was more complex, although it also showed evidence of seasonal variation during the third year after burial. We suggest that the observed variation in the graves' resistivity anomalies was caused by seasonal change in survey data noise levels, which was in turn influenced by the soil moisture budget. It is possible that similar variations occur elsewhere for sites with seasonal climate variations and this could affect successful detection of other subsurface features. Further research to investigate how different climates and soil types affect seasonal variation in grave-related resistivity anomalies would be useful.

  18. Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matthews

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

  19. The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses - ICLEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin; Blume, Theresa; Iclea Team

    2014-05-01

    The GFZ, Greifswald University and the Brandenburg University of Technology together with their partner the Polish Academy of Sciences strive for focusing their research capacities and expertise in a Helmholtz Virtual Institute for Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses (ICLEA). The Coordination Team is based at the GFZ in Potsdam and consists of a permanent scientific manager and administrative personnel. ICLEA offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Postdoctoral rotation positions at the ICLEA partner institutions ensure mobility of young researchers and promote dissemination of information and expertise between disciplines. Training, Research and Analytical workshops between research partners of the ICLEA virtual institute are another important measure to qualify young researchers. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands will be facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. In ICLEA five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects. WP 1 focus on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analysing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 focus on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments

  20. Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

    2018-04-01

    Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

  1. Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide Disaster Management: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008 West Africa Floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arame Tall

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2008, the seasonal forecast issued at the Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa (PRESAO announced a high risk of above-normal rainfall for the July–September rainy season. With probabilities for above-normal rainfall of 0.45, this forecast indicated noteworthy increases in the risk of heavy rainfall. When this information reached the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC West and Central Africa Office, it led to significant changes in the organization’s flood response operations. The IFRC regional office requested funds in advance of anticipated floods, prepositioned disaster relief items in strategic locations across West Africa to benefit up to 9,500 families, updated its flood contingency plans, and alerted vulnerable communities and decision-makers across the region. This forecast-based preparedness resulted in a decrease in the number of lives, property, and livelihoods lost to floods, compared to just one year prior in 2007 when similar floods claimed above 300 lives in the region. This article demonstrates how a science-based early warning informed decisions and saved lives by triggering action in anticipation of forecast events. It analyses what it took to move decision-makers to action, based on seasonal climate information, and to overcome traditional barriers to the uptake of seasonal climate information in the region, providing evidence that these barriers can be overcome. While some institutional, communication and technical barriers were addressed in 2008, many challenges remain. Scientists and humanitarians need to build more common ground.

  2. Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subramaniam Vidya

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

  3. Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Maritime Continent Rainfall of Wet-Dry Transitional Seasons in the NCEP Climate Forecast Version 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuantuan Zhang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the characteristics and prediction of the Maritime Continent (MC rainfall for the transitional periods between wet and dry seasons. Several observational data sets and the output from the 45-day hindcast by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2 are used. Results show that the MC experiences a sudden transition from wet season to dry season (WTD around the 27th pentad, and a gradual transition from dry season to wet season (DTW around the 59th pentad. Correspondingly, the westerlies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the easterlies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Australia High become weaker, contributing to weakening of the convergence over the MC. The subtropical western Pacific high intensifies and extends northeastward during the WTD. The Mascarene High becomes weaker, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation forms over the northeast of the Philippines, and an anomalous low-level convergence occurs over the western MC during the DTW. The NCEP CFSv2 captures the major features of rainfall and related atmospheric circulation when forecast lead time is less than three weeks for WTD and two weeks for DTW. The model predicts a weaker amplitude of the changes in rainfall and related atmospheric circulation for both WTD and DTW as lead time increases.

  4. Climate variables as predictors for seasonal forecast of dengue occurrence in Chennai, Tamil Nadu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subash Kumar, D. D.; Andimuthu, R.

    2013-12-01

    Background Dengue is a recently emerging vector borne diseases in Chennai. As per the WHO report in 2011 dengue is one of eight climate sensitive disease of this century. Objective Therefore an attempt has been made to explore the influence of climate parameters on dengue occurrence and use for forecasting. Methodology Time series analysis has been applied to predict the number of dengue cases in Chennai, a metropolitan city which is the capital of Tamil Nadu, India. Cross correlation of the climate variables with dengue cases revealed that the most influential parameters were monthly relative humidity, minimum temperature at 4 months lag and rainfall at one month lag (Table 1). However due to intercorrelation of relative humidity and rainfall was high and therefore for predictive purpose the rainfall at one month lag was used for the model development. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been applied to forecast the occurrence of dengue. Results and Discussion The best fit model was ARIMA (1,0,1). It was seen that the monthly minimum temperature at four months lag (β= 3.612, p = 0.02) and rainfall at one month lag (β= 0.032, p = 0.017) were associated with dengue occurrence and they had a very significant effect. Mean Relative Humidity had a directly significant positive correlation at 99% confidence level, but the lagged effect was not prominent. The model predicted dengue cases showed significantly high correlation of 0.814(Figure 1) with the observed cases. The RMSE of the model was 18.564 and MAE was 12.114. The model is limited by the scarcity of the dataset. Inclusion of socioeconomic conditions and population offset are further needed to be incorporated for effective results. Conclusion Thus it could be claimed that the change in climatic parameters is definitely influential in increasing the number of dengue occurrence in Chennai. The climate variables therefore can be used for seasonal forecasting of dengue with rise in minimum

  5. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: the role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.

    2017-01-01

    and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions......Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management......, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months...

  6. Integrating Seasonal Oscillations into Basel II Behavioural Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces a new methodology of temporal influence measurement (seasonal oscillations, temporal patterns for behavioural scoring development purposes. The paper shows how significant temporal variables can be recognised and then integrated into the behavioural scoring models in order to improve model performance. Behavioural scoring models are integral parts of the Basel II standard on Internal Ratings-Based Approaches (IRB. The IRB approach much more precisely reflects individual risk bank profile.A solution of the problem of how to analyze and integrate macroeconomic and microeconomic factors represented in time series into behavioural scorecard models will be shown in the paper by using the REF II model.

  7. Application of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to seasonal water supply forecasting in the Great Lakes basin through the use of the Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Apps, D.; Fry, L. M.; Bolinger, R.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) contribution to the internationally coordinated 6-month forecast of Great Lakes water levels relies on several water supply models, including a regression model relating a coming month's water supply to past water supplies, previous months' precipitation and temperature, and forecasted precipitation and temperature. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature depicted in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook maps are considered to be standard for use in operational forecasting for seasonal time horizons, and have provided the basis for computing a coming month's precipitation and temperature for use in the USACE water supply regression models. The CPC outlook maps are a useful forecast product offering insight into interpretation of climate models through the prognostic discussion and graphical forecasts. However, recent evolution of USACE forecast procedures to accommodate automated data transfer and manipulation offers a new opportunity for direct incorporation of ensemble climate forecast data into probabilistic outlooks of water supply using existing models that have previously been implemented in a deterministic fashion. We will present results from a study investigating the potential for applying data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to operational water supply forecasts. The use of NMME forecasts is facilitated by a new, publicly available, Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool that provides operational forecasts of monthly average temperatures and monthly total precipitation summarized for each lake basin.

  8. Impacts of climate change on rainfall, seasonal flooding, and evapotranspiration in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D.; Mosimanyana, E.; Gondwe, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana is one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Delta is known for its unique annual flood pulse, whereby the wetland and its neighboring river systems are inundated with waters that travel nearly 1000 km before reaching this subtropical, semi-arid destination. The livelihoods of northern Botswana's ecosystems and human populations rely on these floods to supplement the short and variable rainy season, which in many years is too minimal to ameliorate regional drought. However, anthropogenic climate change is reducing the amount of water that reaches the delta by increasing evaporation from soils and rivers, and transpiration by vegetation, during its long transit to Botswana. Future changes in rainfall patterns, extreme events, and increased upstream water use could exacerbate this water stress. Unfortunately, it remains difficult to assess the impacts of climate change on the delta because few data exist to constrain its complex climatic and seasonal water cycling regimes. This study presents a novel characterization of the water cycle in and around the Okavango Delta based on a survey of free-flowing surface waters, stagnant pools, precipitation, and groundwater carried out during the 2016 rainy and early-flood season. We use stable isotope and water quality data to assess local moisture sources, transport, evaporation, wetland flushing, and land-atmosphere exchanges, all of which are subject to change under global warming. We find a strong evaporation gradient and a progressive flushing of stagnant swamp waters along the northeastern and northwestern channels of the Delta. The evaporation gradient is more limited in nearby rivers with more limited wetlands. We contrast results with a survey of the Delta performed in the 1970's in order to assess changes over the past 40 years. Since some of these changes may arise from rainfall supply, we also present new analysis of rainfall moisture

  9. The Influence of Climatic Seasonality on the Diversity of Different Tropical Pollinator Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Kluge, Jürgen; Gareca, Yuvinka; Reichle, Steffen; Kessler, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Tropical South America is rich in different groups of pollinators, but the biotic and abiotic factors determining the geographical distribution of their species richness are poorly understood. We analyzed the species richness of three groups of pollinators (bees and wasps, butterflies, hummingbirds) in six tropical forests in the Bolivian lowlands along a gradient of climatic seasonality and precipitation ranging from 410 mm to 6250 mm. At each site, we sampled the three pollinator groups and their food plants twice for 16 days in both the dry and rainy seasons. The richness of the pollinator groups was related to climatic factors by linear regressions. Differences in species numbers between pollinator groups were analyzed by Wilcoxon tests for matched pairs and the proportion in species numbers between pollinator groups by correlation analyses. Species richness of hummingbirds was most closely correlated to the continuous availability of food, that of bees and wasps to the number of food plant species and flowers, and that of butterflies to air temperature. Only the species number of butterflies differed significantly between seasons. We were not able to find shifts in the proportion of species numbers of the different groups of pollinators along the study gradient. Thus, we conclude that the diversity of pollinator guilds is determined by group-specific factors and that the constant proportions in species numbers of the different pollinator groups constitute a general pattern. PMID:22073268

  10. The influence of climatic seasonality on the diversity of different tropical pollinator groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Abrahamczyk

    Full Text Available Tropical South America is rich in different groups of pollinators, but the biotic and abiotic factors determining the geographical distribution of their species richness are poorly understood. We analyzed the species richness of three groups of pollinators (bees and wasps, butterflies, hummingbirds in six tropical forests in the Bolivian lowlands along a gradient of climatic seasonality and precipitation ranging from 410 mm to 6250 mm. At each site, we sampled the three pollinator groups and their food plants twice for 16 days in both the dry and rainy seasons. The richness of the pollinator groups was related to climatic factors by linear regressions. Differences in species numbers between pollinator groups were analyzed by Wilcoxon tests for matched pairs and the proportion in species numbers between pollinator groups by correlation analyses. Species richness of hummingbirds was most closely correlated to the continuous availability of food, that of bees and wasps to the number of food plant species and flowers, and that of butterflies to air temperature. Only the species number of butterflies differed significantly between seasons. We were not able to find shifts in the proportion of species numbers of the different groups of pollinators along the study gradient. Thus, we conclude that the diversity of pollinator guilds is determined by group-specific factors and that the constant proportions in species numbers of the different pollinator groups constitute a general pattern.

  11. Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    27 mars 2008 ... Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in support of Community Based Adaptation. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. However, increased variability ...

  12. Refuge behaviour from outdoor thermal environmental stress and seasonal differences of thermal sense in tropical urban climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurazumi, Y.; Ishii, J.; Fukagawa, K.; Kondo, E.; Aruninta, A.

    2017-12-01

    Thermal sensation affects body temperature regulation. As a starting point for behavioral body temperature regulation taken to improve from a poor thermal environment to a more pleasant environment, thermal sense of thermal environment stimulus is important. The poupose of this sutudy is to use the outdoor thermal environment evaluation index ETFe to quantify effects on thermal sensations of the human body of a tropical region climate with small annual temperature differences, and to examine seasonal differences in thermal sensation. It was found temperature preferences were lower in the winter season than in the dry season, and that a tolerance for higher temperatures in the dry season than in the winter season. It was found effects of seasonal differences of the thermal environment appear in quantitative changes in thermal sensations. It was found that effects of seasonal differences of the thermal environment do not greatly affect quantitative changes in thermal comfort.

  13. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  14. Integrated crop management practices for maximizing grain yield of double-season rice crop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Depeng; Huang, Jianliang; Nie, Lixiao; Wang, Fei; Ling, Xiaoxia; Cui, Kehui; Li, Yong; Peng, Shaobing

    2017-01-01

    Information on maximum grain yield and its attributes are limited for double-season rice crop grown under the subtropical environment. This study was conducted to examine key characteristics associated with high yielding double-season rice crop through a comparison between an integrated crop management (ICM) and farmers’ practice (FP). Field experiments were conducted in the early and late seasons in the subtropical environment of Wuxue County, Hubei Province, China in 2013 and 2014. On average, grain yield in ICM was 13.5% higher than that in FP. A maximum grain yield of 9.40 and 10.53 t ha-1 was achieved under ICM in the early- and late-season rice, respectively. Yield improvement of double-season rice with ICM was achieved with the combined effects of increased plant density and optimized nutrient management. Yield gain of ICM resulted from a combination of increases in sink size due to more panicle number per unit area and biomass production, further supported by the increased leaf area index, leaf area duration, radiation use efficiency, crop growth rate, and total nitrogen uptake compared with FP. Further enhancement in the yield potential of double-season rice should focus on increasing crop growth rate and biomass production through improved and integrated crop management practices.

  15. Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage for Seasonal Thermal Energy Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostampour, Vahab; Bloemendal, Martin; Keviczky, Tamas

    2017-04-01

    Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) systems allow storing large quantities of thermal energy in subsurface aquifers enabling significant energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions. This is achieved by injection and extraction of water into and from saturated underground aquifers, simultaneously. An ATES system consists of two wells and operates in a seasonal mode. One well is used for the storage of cold water, the other one for the storage of heat. In warm seasons, cold water is extracted from the cold well to provide cooling to a building. The temperature of the extracted cold water increases as it passes through the building climate control systems and then gets simultaneously, injected back into the warm well. This procedure is reversed during cold seasons where the flow direction is reversed such that the warmer water is extracted from the warm well to provide heating to a building. From the perspective of building climate comfort systems, an ATES system is considered as a seasonal storage system that can be a heat source or sink, or as a storage for thermal energy. This leads to an interesting and challenging optimal control problem of the building climate comfort system that can be used to develop a seasonal-based energy management strategy. In [1] we develop a control-oriented model to predict thermal energy balance in a building climate control system integrated with ATES. Such a model however cannot cope with off-nominal but realistic situations such as when the wells are completely depleted, or the start-up phase of newly installed wells, etc., leading to direct usage of aquifer ambient temperature. Building upon our previous work in [1], we here extend the mathematical model for ATES system to handle the above mentioned more realistic situations. Using our improved models, one can more precisely predict system behavior and apply optimal control strategies to manage the building climate comfort along with energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions

  16. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  17. Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

    2016-06-05

    South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  18. Effects of climate change on soil moisture over China from 1960-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.

    2009-01-01

    Soil moisture is an important variable in the climate system and it has sensitive impact on the global climate. Obviously it is one of essential components in the climate change study. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of soil moisture across China under the climate change conditions for the period 1960-2006. Results show that the model performed better in warm season than in cold season. Mean errors (ME) are within 10% for all the months and root mean squared errors (RMSE) are within 10% except winter season. The model captured the spatial variability higher than 50% in warm seasons. Trend analysis based on the Mann-Kendall method indicated that soil moisture in most area of China is decreased especially in the northern China. The areas with significant increasing trends in soil moisture mainly locate at northwestern China and small areas in southeastern China and eastern Tibet plateau. ?? 2009 IEEE.

  19. Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Forecast Discussion PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD INFLUENCE ON THE MONTHLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE. OUR MID-MONTH ASSESSMENT OF LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE VARIABILITY IS

  20. Enhancing the usability of seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate information - an evidence-based framework for the identification and assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    The successful provision of from seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate service products to sector-specific users is dependent on specific problem characteristics and individual user needs and decision-making processes. Climate information requires an impact on decision making to have any value (Rodwell and Doblas-Reyes, 2006). For that reason the knowledge of sector-specific vulnerabilities to S2D climate variability is very valuable information for both, climate service producers and users. In this context a concept for a vulnerability assessment framework was developed to (i) identify climate events (and especially their temporal scales) critical for sector-specific problems to assess the basic requirements for an appropriate climate-service product development; and to (ii) assess the potential impact or value of related climate information for decision-makers. The concept was developed within the EUPORIAS project (European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales) based on ten project-related case-studies from different sectors all over Europe. In the prevalent stage the framework may be useful as preliminary assessment or 'quick-scan' of the vulnerability of specific systems to climate variability in the context of S2D climate service provision. The assessment strategy of the framework is user-focused, using predominantly a bottom-up approach (vulnerability as state) but also a top-down approach (vulnerability as outcome) generally based on qualitative data (surveys, interviews, etc.) and literature research for system understanding. The starting point of analysis is a climate-sensitive 'critical situation' of the considered system which requires a decision and is defined by the user. From this basis the related 'critical climate conditions' are assessed and 'climate information needs' are derived. This mainly refers to the critical period of time of the climate event or sequence of events. The relevant period of time of problem

  1. An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1995-01-01

    ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

  2. Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

    2018-01-01

    Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

  3. Developing the Capacity of Farmers to Understand and Apply Seasonal Climate Forecasts through Collaborative Learning Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliffe, Neil; Stone, Roger; Coutts, Jeff; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn; Mushtaq, Shahbaz

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper documents and evaluates collaborative learning processes aimed at developing farmer's knowledge, skills and aspirations to use seasonal climate forecasting (SCF). Methodology: Thirteen workshops conducted in 2012 engaged over 200 stakeholders across Australian sugar production regions. Workshop design promoted participant…

  4. Seasonal Differences in Climatic Controls of Vegetation Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal differences in climatic controls of vegetation growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China Bin He1 , Haiyan Wan11 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Corresponding author: Bin He, email addresses: hebin@bnu.edu.cnPhone:+861058806506, Address: Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Email addresses of co-authors: wanghaiyan@mail.bnu.edu.cnABSTRACTLaunched in 2000, the Beiing-Tainjin Sand Source Controlling Project (BTSSCP) is an ecological restoration project intended to prevent desertification in China. Evidence from multiple sources has confirmed increases in vegetation growth in the BTSSCP region since the initiation of the project. Precipitation and related soil moisture conditions typically are considered to be the main drivers of vegetation growth in this arid region. However, by investigating the relationships between vegetation growth and corresponding climatic factors, we identified seasonal variation in the climatic constraints of vegetation growth. In spring, vegetation growth is stimulated mainly by elevated temperature, whereas precipitation is the lead driver of summer greening. In autumn, positive effects of both temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were observed. Furthermore, strong biosphere-atmosphere interactions were observed in this region. Spring warming promotes vegetation growth, but also reduces soil moisture. Summer greening has a strong cooling effect on land surface temperature. These results indicate that 1) precipitation-based projections of vegetation growth may be misleading; and 2) the ecological and environment consequences of ecological projects should be comprehensively evaluated. KEYWORDS: vegetation growth, climatic drivers, seasonal variation, BTSSCP

  5. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

    2018-04-01

    This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

  6. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamigaki, Taro; Chaw, Liling; Tan, Alvin G; Tamaki, Raita; Alday, Portia P; Javier, Jenaline B; Olveda, Remigio M; Oshitani, Hitoshi; Tallo, Veronica L

    2016-01-01

    The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for

  7. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Kamigaki

    Full Text Available The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their

  8. Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

    2017-12-01

    The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

  9. IIASA's climate-vegetation-biogeochemical cycle module as a part of an integrated model for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganopolski, A.V.; Jonas, M.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzynski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.; Venevsky, S.V.

    1994-01-01

    The main objective of this study is the development of a hierarchy of coupled climate biosphere models with a full description of the global biogeochemical cycles. These models are planned for use as the core of a set of integrated models of climate change and they will incorporate the main elements of the Earth system (atmosphere, hydrosphere, pedosphere and biosphere) linked with each other (and eventually with the antroposphere) through the fluxes of heat, momentum, water and through the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. This set of integrated models can be considered to fill the gap between highly simplified integrated models of climate change and very sophisticated and computationally expensive coupled models, developed on the basis of general circulation models (GCMs). It is anticipated that this range of integrated models will be an effective tool for investigating the broad spectrum of problems connected with the coexistence of human society and biosphere

  10. Integrated Rural-Urban Water Management for Climate Based ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    There are serious short- and long-term consequences on human health, physical assets, economic ... To work, adaptive climate-proof integrated urban water management must extend throughout the whole catchment, an approach known as integrated water resource management. ... Careers · Contact Us · Site map.

  11. Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

    2013-04-01

    in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over USA is higher during winter, and climate models present added value especially at long leads. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the realtime data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for estimating a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. Based on our established experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML), we use the downscaled CFSv2 climate forcings to drive the re-calibrated VIC model and produce 6-month, 20-member ensemble hydrologic forecasts over Africa starting on the 1st of each calendar month during 1982-2007. Our CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts are now being analyzed for its skill in predicting short-term soil moisture droughts over Africa. Besides relying on a single seasonal climate model or a single drought index, preliminary forecast results will be presented using multiple seasonal climate models based on the NOAA-supported National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, and with multiple drought indices. Results will be presented for the USA NIDIS test beds such as Southeast US and Colorado NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) test beds, and potentially for other regions of the globe.

  12. On the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe and the "seasonal feeling" relating to "Fasnacht" in comparison with those in East Asia (Toward an interdisciplinary activity on climate and cultural understanding education)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kuranoshin; Kato, Haruko; Hamaki, Tatsuya

    2016-04-01

    As mentioned in the introduction of the EGU2016 abstract (Kato et al., submitted to CL5.06/AS4.9), there are many stages with rapid seasonal transitions in East Asia, resulting in the variety of "seasonal feeling". The seasonal cycle has been an important background for generation of the arts. On the other hand, around Germany located near the western edge of the Eurasian Continent, there are so many music or literature works in which the "May" is treated as the special season (comparison of the climate and songs on "spring" (or "May") between Japan and Germany was tried in a book by Kato, H. and K. Kato, although written in Japanese). The Japanese researchers on German Literature suggested that there are basically two seasons "winter" and "summer" around Germany, with the transitional stages of spring and autumn. The concepts of the battle between winter and summer, and driving winter away, and so on, around Germany seem to show rather different seasonal feelings from that around the Japan Islands (Oshio 1982; Miyashita 1982; Takeda 1980). A traditional event there called "Fasnacht" for driving winter away is held in March or slightly earlier stage (Takeda 1980; Ueda and Ebato 1988). Kato et al. (EGU2016, submitted to CL5.06/AS4.9) will report the synoptic climatological features on the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe based on the daily data, by comparing with that in East Asia. In this presentation, we will discuss on the climatological background for the "seasonal feeling" leading to such as the battle between winter and summer, driving winter away, including "Fasnacht", also by referring to some songs (children's songs, etc.). At the same time, the analysis results on the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe in comparison with those in East Asia by Kato et al. (EGU2016) will be also referred to. On the other hand, although it is around the end of March when the "wintertime pressure pattern" on the daily surface weather maps in

  13. Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the

  14. Quantifying wetland–aquifer interactions in a humid subtropical climate region: An integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Sanchez, Itza; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Niu, Jie; Masoner, Jason R.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.; McGuire, Jennifer T.

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands are widely recognized as sentinels of global climate change. Long-term monitoring data combined with process-based modeling has the potential to shed light on key processes and how they change over time. This paper reports the development and application of a simple water balance model based on long-term climate, soil, vegetation and hydrological dynamics to quantify groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions at the Norman landfill research site in Oklahoma, USA. Our integrated approach involved model evaluation by means of the following independent measurements: (a) groundwater inflow calculation using stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen (16O, 18O, 1H, 2H); (b) seepage flux measurements in the wetland hyporheic sediment; and (c) pan evaporation measurements on land and in the wetland. The integrated approach was useful for identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the site, including recharge and subsurface flows. Simulated recharge compared well with estimates obtained using isotope methods from previous studies and allowed us to identify specific annual signatures of this important process during the period of study (1997–2007). Similarly, observations of groundwater inflow and outflow rates to and from the wetland using seepage meters and isotope methods were found to be in good agreement with simulation results. Results indicate that subsurface flow components in the system are seasonal and readily respond to rainfall events. The wetland water balance is dominated by local groundwater inputs and regional groundwater flow contributes little to the overall water balance.

  15. [Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

    2013-10-01

    Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was

  16. Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como

  17. Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Both, C.; Turnhout, van C.A.M.; Bijlsma, R.G.; Siepel, H.; Strien, van A.J.; Foppen, R.P.B.

    2010-01-01

    One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that

  18. Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Both, Christiaan; Van Turnhout, Chris A. M.; Bijlsma, Rob G.; Siepel, Henk; Van Strien, Arco J.; Foppen, Ruud P. B.

    2010-01-01

    One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that

  19. Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

  20. The resilience of integrated agricultural systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Cohn, Avery S.; Duncan, John; Newton, Peter; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems (IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of

  1. A Review of the Integrated Effects of Changing Climate, Land Use, and Dams on Mekong River Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadu Pokhrel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing and proposed construction of large-scale hydropower dams in the Mekong river basin is a subject of intense debate and growing international concern due to the unprecedented and potentially irreversible impacts these dams are likely to have on the hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the basin. Studies have shown that some of the dams built in the tributaries and the main stem of the upper Mekong have already caused basin-wide impacts by altering the magnitude and seasonality of flows, blocking sediment transport, affecting fisheries and livelihoods of downstream inhabitants, and changing the flood pulse to the Tonle Sap Lake. There are hundreds of additional dams planned for the near future that would result in further changes, potentially causing permanent damage to the highly productive agricultural systems and fisheries, as well as the riverine and floodplain ecosystems. Several studies have examined the potential impacts of existing and planned dams but the integrated effects of the dams when combined with the adverse hydrologic consequences of climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we provide a detailed review of the existing literature on the changes in climate, land use, and dam construction and the resulting impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the Mekong. The review provides a basis to better understand the effects of climate change and accelerating human water management activities on the coupled hydrological-agricultural-ecological systems, and identifies existing challenges to study the region’s Water, Energy, and Food (WEF nexus with emphasis on the influence of future dams and projected climate change. In the last section, we synthesize the results and highlight the urgent need to develop integrated models to holistically study the coupled natural-human systems across the basin that account for the impacts of climate change and water infrastructure development

  2. An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel K. Newlands

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

  3. Climate change and integrated water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhuiyan, Nurul Amin

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: In the Bangladesh Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP), Millennium Development Goals and other donor driven initiatives, two vital areas linked with poverty and ecosystem survival seem to be either missing or are being neglected: (a) transboundary water use and (b) coastal area poverty and critical ecosystems vulnerable due to climate change. Since the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) goals and PRSP are integrated, it is necessary that the countrys WSSD goals and PRSP should also be in harmony. All should give the recognition of Ganges Brahmaputra and Meghna as international basins and the approach should be taken for regional sustainable and integrated water resource management involving all co-riparian countries. The principle of low flow in the international rivers during all seasons should be ensured. All stakeholders should have a say and work towards regional cooperation in the water sector as a top priority. The energy sector should be integrated with water. The Indian River Linking project involving international rivers should be seriously discussed at all levels including the parliament so that voice of Bangladesh is concerted and information shared by all concerned. One of the most critical challenges Bangladesh faces is the management of water resources during periods of water excesses and acute scarcity. It is particularly difficult when only 7% of the catchments areas of the very international rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna are in Bangladesh while 97% is outside Bangladesh where unfortunately, Bangladesh has no control on upstream diversion and water use. The UN Conference on Environment and Development in its Agenda 21 emphasizes the importance of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). The core point of IWRM is that is development of all aspects of entire basin in a basin wide approach, that all relevant agencies of the government and water users must be involved in the planning process and

  4. Effect of Integrated Feedback on Classroom Climate of Secondary School Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nilesh Kumar

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed at finding out the effect of Integrated feedback on Classroom climate of secondary school teachers. This research is experimental in nature. Non-equivalent control group design suggested by Stanley and Campbell (1963) was used for the experiment. Integrated feedback was treatment and independent variable, Classroom climate was…

  5. The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves

    Full Text Available Understanding the processes that influence species diversity is still a challenge in ecological studies. However, there are two main theories to discuss this topic, the niche theory and the neutral theory. Our objective was to understand the importance of environmental and spatial processes in structuring bird communities within the hydrological seasons in dry forest areas in northeastern Brazil. The study was conducted in two National Parks, the Serra da Capivara and Serra das Confusões National Parks, where 36 areas were sampled in different seasons (dry, dry/rainy transition, rainy, rainy/dry transition, in 2012 and 2013. We found with our results that bird species richness is higher in the rainy season and lower during the dry season, indicating a strong influence of seasonality, a pattern also found for environmental heterogeneity. Richness was explained by local environmental factors, while species composition was explained by environmental and spatial factors. The environmental factors were more important in explaining variations in composition. Climate change predictions have currently pointed out frequent drought events and a rise in global temperature by 2050, which would lead to changes in species behavior and to increasing desertification in some regions, including the Caatinga. In addition, the high deforestation rates and the low level of representativeness of the Caatinga in the conservation units negatively affects bird communities. This scenario has demonstrated how climatic factors affect individuals, and, therefore, should be the starting point for conservation initiatives to be developed in xeric environments.

  6. The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro; Cerqueira, Pablo Vieira; Brasil, Leandro Schlemmer; Santos, Marcos Pérsio Dantas

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the processes that influence species diversity is still a challenge in ecological studies. However, there are two main theories to discuss this topic, the niche theory and the neutral theory. Our objective was to understand the importance of environmental and spatial processes in structuring bird communities within the hydrological seasons in dry forest areas in northeastern Brazil. The study was conducted in two National Parks, the Serra da Capivara and Serra das Confusões National Parks, where 36 areas were sampled in different seasons (dry, dry/rainy transition, rainy, rainy/dry transition), in 2012 and 2013. We found with our results that bird species richness is higher in the rainy season and lower during the dry season, indicating a strong influence of seasonality, a pattern also found for environmental heterogeneity. Richness was explained by local environmental factors, while species composition was explained by environmental and spatial factors. The environmental factors were more important in explaining variations in composition. Climate change predictions have currently pointed out frequent drought events and a rise in global temperature by 2050, which would lead to changes in species behavior and to increasing desertification in some regions, including the Caatinga. In addition, the high deforestation rates and the low level of representativeness of the Caatinga in the conservation units negatively affects bird communities. This scenario has demonstrated how climatic factors affect individuals, and, therefore, should be the starting point for conservation initiatives to be developed in xeric environments.

  7. Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

    2018-05-01

    Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal

  8. Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John H Huber

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (reemerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation. Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting

  9. Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. PELTONEN-SAINIO

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change offers new opportunities for Finnish field crop production, which is currently limited by the short growing season. A warmer climate will extend the thermal growing season and the physiologically effective part of it. Winters will also become milder, enabling introduction of winter-sown crops to a greater extent than is possible today. With this study we aim to characterise the likely regional differences in capacity to grow different seed producing crops. Prolongation of the Finnish growing season was estimated using a 0.5º latitude × 0.5º longitude gridded dataset from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dataset comprised an average estimate from 19 global climate models of the response of Finnish climate to low (B1 and high (A2 scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions for 30-year periods centred on 2025, 2055 and 2085 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Growing season temperature sums that suit crop growth and are agronomically feasible in Finland are anticipated to increase by some 140 °Cd by 2025, 300 °Cd by 2055 and 470 °Cd by 2085 in scenario A2, when averaged over regions, and earlier sowing is expected to take place, but not later harvests. Accordingly, the extent of cultivable areas for the commonly grown major and minor crops will increase considerably. Due to the higher base temperature requirement for maize (Zea mays L. growth than for temperate crops, we estimate that silage maize could become a Finnish field crop for the most favourable growing regions only at the end of this century. Winters are getting milder, but it will take almost the whole century until winters such as those that are typical for southern Sweden and Denmark are experienced on a wide scale in Finland. It is possible that introduction of winter-sown crops (cereals and rapeseed will represent major risks due to fluctuating winter conditions, and this could delay their adaptation for many decades. Such risks need to be

  10. Seasonal response of biomass growth and allocation of a boreal bioenergy crop (Phalaris arundinacea L.) to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Zhang

    2013-06-01

    in the growing season. Compared to CON, ET and ETC increased LMF and SMF, and decreased RMF over the whole growing season under NW and HW. Under LW, ET and ETC decreased LMF and increased RMF throughout the growing season, and increased SMF in early periods and then decreased later in the growing season. EC decreased the LMF and SMF and increased the RMF over the growing season but did not significantly affect the seasonal biomass allocation pattern between plant organs. The LMF was higher and the RMF was lower throughout the growing season in response to the higher groundwater level, while the effect of groundwater level on the SMF depended on the developmental phase of the plants. Our results show that climatic treatments affected biomass growth and biomass allocation to each of the three plant organs, while the direction and extent of climate-related changes in biomass growth and allocation depended on the availability of groundwater. The influence of groundwater level appeared to be crucial for the carbon gain regarding the production of RCG biomass for energy purposes and the concurrent sequestration of carbon in soils under changing climates in the mire sites used to cultivate RCG. (orig.)

  11. Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solman, Silvina A. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera CIMA/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, CIMA-Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Pessacg, Natalia L. [Centro Nacional Patagonico (CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Chubut (Argentina)

    2012-07-15

    This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature. (orig.)

  12. Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

    2017-12-01

    South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

  13. Evaluation of a new CNRM-CM6 model version for seasonal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, Lauriane; Dorel, Laurant; Guérémy, Jean-François; Déqué, Michel

    2017-04-01

    This work presents the quality assessment of a new version of the Météo-France coupled climate prediction system, which has been developed in the EU COPERNICUS Climate Change Services framework to carry out seasonal forecast. The system is based on the CNRM-CM6 model, with Arpege-Surfex 6.2.2 as atmosphere/land component and Nemo 3.2 as ocean component, which has directly embedded the sea-ice component Gelato 6.0. In order to have a robust diagnostic, the experiment is composed by 60 ensemble members generated with stochastic dynamic perturbations. The experiment has been performed over a 37-year re-forecast period from 1979 to 2015, with two start dates per year, respectively in May 1st and November 1st. The evaluation of the predictive skill of the model is shown under two perspectives: on the one hand, the ability of the model to faithfully respond to positive or negative ENSO, NAO and QBO events, independently of the predictability of these events. Such assessment is carried out through a composite analysis, and shows that the model succeeds in reproducing the main patterns for 2-meter temperature, precipitation and geopotential height at 500 hPa during the winter season. On the other hand, the model predictive skill of the same events (positive and negative ENSO, NAO and QBO) is evaluated.

  14. Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

  15. The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hejia Wang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the duration and division of the flood season in the Fenhe River Basin over the period of 1957–2014 based on daily precipitation data collected from 14 meteorological stations. The Mann–Kendall detection, the multiscale moving t-test, and the Fisher optimal partition methods are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood season duration and division. The results show that the duration of the flood season has extended in 1975–2014 compared to that in 1957–1974. Specifically, the onset date of the flood season has advanced 15 days, whereas the retreat date of the flood season remains almost the same. The flood season of the Fenhe River Basin can be divided into three stages, and the variations in the onset and retreat dates of each stage are also examined. Corresponding measures are also proposed to better utilize the flood resources to adapt to the flood season variations.

  16. Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex de Sherbinin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability mapping reveals areas that are likely to be at greater risk of climate-related disasters in the future. Through integration of climate, biophysical, and socioeconomic data in an overall vulnerability framework, so-called “hotspots” of vulnerability can be identified. These maps can be used as an aid to targeting adaptation and disaster risk management interventions. This paper reviews vulnerability mapping efforts in West Africa conducted under the USAID-funded African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC project. The focus is on the integration of remotely sensed and socioeconomic data. Data inputs included a range of sensor data (e.g., MODIS NDVI, Landsat, SRTM elevation, DMSP-OLS night-time lights as well as high-resolution poverty, conflict, and infrastructure data. Two basic methods were used, one in which each layer was transformed into standardized indicators in an additive approach, and another in which remote sensing data were used to contextualize the results of composite indicators. We assess the benefits and challenges of data integration, and the lessons learned from these mapping exercises.

  17. Seasonal variation in AF-related admissions to a coronary care unit in a "hot" climate: fact or fiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiu, Andrew; Horowitz, John D; Stewart, Simon

    2004-01-01

    Seasonal variations in atrial fibrillation (AF)-related morbidity and mortality have been demonstrated in "cold" northern European climates, but there are few data describing such a phenomenon in a "hot" climate. To examine the pattern of AF-related admissions to a coronary care unit (CCU) in South Australia operating within a Mediterranean climate, and to determine potential differences according to mean daily temperatures. PATIENT COHORT AND METHODS: A total of 144 admissions to the CCU during the 30 hottest and coldest days (60 days in total) during the calendar year 2001 were analyzed in respect to the absolute number of admissions and the profile of those admitted during "hot" and "cold" days. Overall, there were significantly more admissions to the CCU on "cold" as opposed to "hot" days (90 vs 54 patients in 30 days, P < or = .001). Of the 24 patients found to be in AF on presentation to hospital, 18 (75%) were admitted on cold days (P < .05). Alternatively, during "hot" days, patients were more likely to be diagnosed with unstable angina rather than acute myocardial infarction (46% vs 30%, P = .07) with proportionately fewer patients in AF at the time (11% vs 20%, P = NS). These preliminary data suggest that the phenomenon of seasonal variations in AF-related morbidity extend beyond colder climates to hotter climates with sufficiently large relative (as opposed to absolute) changes in ambient temperatures during the year.

  18. Integrating climate change into governance at the municipal scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    2014-01-01

    traditions and perceptions. This article examines dif- ferent approaches to CC governance and the institutional dynamics that occur in the integration process within eight Danish municipalities in the initial phase of integrating CC. The results show three different governance approaches related to climate...

  19. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2008-04-27

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO 2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while R eco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods.

  20. Climate change and foreign policy : an exploration of options for greater integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drexhage, J.; Murphy, D.; Brown, O.; Cosbey, A.; Dickey, P.; Parry, J.-E.; Van Ham, J.; Tarasofsky, R.; Darkin, B.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change is a global challenge and one of biggest challenges of this century. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires new thinking in foreign policy. This paper discussed the results of a research study that examined the role of foreign policy in fostering a more effective international response to the challenge of climate change. The scope involved an examination of instruments relevant to Danish foreign policy. The paper first identified the climate change challenge and discussed international diplomacy and relations. Energy security and investment was discussed in terms of the impact of energy security on climate change efforts and opportunities for integration. Other areas where critical issues and opportunities for integration were offered include international peace and security; trade and investment; and development cooperation. The paper made several recommendations in these areas in addition to diplomatic networking. The study concluded that foreign policy can further the climate change agenda in a number of areas in diplomacy and foreign relations within the European Union, transatlantic relations, Arctic issues and United Nations affairs. This includes better integration of climate change into the European Union's common foreign and security policy, the Lisbon Agenda, and incorporating climate change in the work of a wide range of bodies under the United Nations. refs., figs

  1. Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

  2. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  3. Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of

  4. Daily indoor-to-outdoor temperature and humidity relationships: a sample across seasons and diverse climatic regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Jennifer L; Dockery, Douglas W

    2016-02-01

    The health consequences of heat and cold are usually evaluated based on associations with outdoor measurements collected at a nearby weather reporting station. However, people in the developed world spend little time outdoors, especially during extreme temperature events. We examined the association between indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity in a range of climates. We measured indoor temperature, apparent temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and specific humidity (a measure of moisture content in air) for one calendar year (2012) in a convenience sample of eight diverse locations ranging from the equatorial region (10 °N) to the Arctic (64 °N). We then compared the indoor conditions to outdoor values recorded at the nearest airport weather station. We found that the shape of the indoor-to-outdoor temperature and humidity relationships varied across seasons and locations. Indoor temperatures showed little variation across season and location. There was large variation in indoor relative humidity between seasons and between locations which was independent of outdoor airport measurements. On the other hand, indoor specific humidity, and to a lesser extent dew point, tracked with outdoor, airport measurements both seasonally and between climates, across a wide range of outdoor temperatures. These results suggest that, in general, outdoor measures of actual moisture content in air better capture indoor conditions than outdoor temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, in studies where water vapor is among the parameters of interest for examining weather-related health effects, outdoor measurements of actual moisture content can be more reliably used as a proxy for indoor exposure than the more commonly examined variables of temperature and relative humidity.

  5. Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

    2017-12-01

    Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

  6. Estimation of Seasonal Efficiency of Sochi Resort Climate Therapy by Means of Psychologic Testing of Patients with Cardiometabolic Pathology

    OpenAIRE

    Irina N. Sorochinskaya; Andrei V. Chernyshev

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are major reasons for population mortality in majority of countries, including Russia. Metabolic syndrome is considered to be one of the main pathologic states, leading to enhancement of atherogenesis, ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases. Physical methods, including resort treatment play great role in metabolic syndrome prevention and treatment. Climate therapy depends on resort climate and season and is a major component of resort treatment. Psycholog...

  7. Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

    2011-12-01

    Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

  8. Practice and progress in integrated assessments of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, F.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993. The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face. The basic conclusion is that, as a result of a healthy diversity in practice, integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options. But, as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved, more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore. This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues. (author)

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, Daniel; Paquette, Alain; Côté, Benoît; Logan, Travis; Power, Hugues; Charron, Isabelle; Duchesne, Louis

    2015-01-01

    Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999-2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15-19 days earlier on average in the 2080-2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low.

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Houle

    Full Text Available Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999-2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88 using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A. A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15-19 days earlier on average in the 2080-2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low.

  11. Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Benoît; Logan, Travis; Power, Hugues; Charron, Isabelle; Duchesne, Louis

    2015-01-01

    Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999–2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15–19 days earlier on average in the 2080–2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low. PMID:26682889

  12. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

  13. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-I Hsiao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+, ocean temperature (+, ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+, maximum daily rainfall (current (− and one month ago (−, and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (− had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

  14. Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

    2016-02-03

    This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

  15. Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

    2012-05-01

    Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  16. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Coughlan de Perez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  17. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  18. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  19. Abiotic and seasonal control of soil-produced CO2 efflux in karstic ecosystems located in Oceanic and Mediterranean climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Anton, Elena; Cuezva, Soledad; Fernandez-Cortes, Angel; Alvarez-Gallego, Miriam; Pla, Concepcion; Benavente, David; Cañaveras, Juan Carlos; Sanchez-Moral, Sergio

    2017-09-01

    This study characterizes the processes involved in seasonal CO2 exchange between soils and shallow underground systems and explores the contribution of the different biotic and abiotic sources as a function of changing weather conditions. We spatially and temporally investigated five karstic caves across the Iberian Peninsula, which presented different microclimatic, geologic and geomorphologic features. The locations present Mediterranean and Oceanic climates. Spot air sampling of CO2 (g) and δ13CO2 in the caves, soils and outside atmospheric air was periodically conducted. The isotopic ratio of the source contribution enhancing the CO2 concentration was calculated using the Keeling model. We compared the isotopic ratio of the source in the soil (δ13Cs-soil) with that in the soil-underground system (δ13Cs-system). Although the studied field sites have different features, we found common seasonal trends in their values, which suggests a climatic control over the soil air CO2 and the δ13CO2 of the sources of CO2 in the soil (δ13Cs-soil) and the system (δ13Cs-system). The roots respiration and soil organic matter degradation are the main source of CO2 in underground environments, and the inlet of the gas is mainly driven by diffusion and advection. Drier and warmer conditions enhance soil-exterior CO2 interchange, reducing the CO2 concentration and increasing the δ13CO2 of the soil air. Moreover, the isotopic ratio of the source of CO2 in both the soil and the system tends to heavier values throughout the dry and warm season. We conclude that seasonal variations of soil CO2 concentration and its 13C/12C isotopic ratio are mainly regulated by thermo-hygrometric conditions. In cold and wet seasons, the increase of soil moisture reduces soil diffusivity and allows the storage of CO2 in the subsoil. During dry and warm seasons, the evaporation of soil water favours diffusive and advective transport of soil-derived CO2 to the atmosphere. The soil CO2 diffusion is

  20. How does climate influence xylem morphogenesis over the growing season? Insights from long-term intra-ring anatomy in Picea abies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castagneri, Daniele; Fonti, Patrick; von Arx, Georg; Carrer, Marco

    2017-04-01

    During the growing season, the cambium of conifer trees produces successive rows of xylem cells, the tracheids, that sequentially pass through the phases of enlargement and secondary wall thickening before dying and becoming functional. Climate variability can strongly influence the kinetics of morphogenetic processes, eventually affecting tracheid shape and size. This study investigates xylem anatomical structure in the stem of Picea abies to retrospectively infer how, in the long term, climate affects the processes of cell enlargement and wall thickening. Tracheid anatomical traits related to the phases of enlargement (diameter) and wall thickening (wall thickness) were innovatively inspected at the intra-ring level on 87-year-long tree-ring series in Picea abies trees along a 900 m elevation gradient in the Italian Alps. Anatomical traits in ten successive tree-ring sectors were related to daily temperature and precipitation data using running correlations. Close to the altitudinal tree limit, low early-summer temperature negatively affected cell enlargement. At lower elevation, water availability in early summer was positively related to cell diameter. The timing of these relationships shifted forward by about 20 (high elevation) to 40 (low elevation) d from the first to the last tracheids in the ring. Cell wall thickening was affected by climate in a different period in the season. In particular, wall thickness of late-formed tracheids was strongly positively related to August-September temperature at high elevation. Morphogenesis of tracheids sequentially formed in the growing season is influenced by climate conditions in successive periods. The distinct climate impacts on cell enlargement and wall thickening indicate that different morphogenetic mechanisms are responsible for different tracheid traits. Our approach of long-term and high-resolution analysis of xylem anatomy can support and extend short-term xylogenesis observations, and increase our

  1. Refocusing and Evolving Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Services in NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Silva, V.; Mangan, M. R.; Meyers, J. C.; Zdrojewski, J.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) recently completed a reorganization to better support its goal to build a Weather-Ready Nation. As part of the reorganization, NWS streamlined its 11 national service programs, including climate services, to provide a more structured approach to supporting service delivery needs. As the American public increasingly requests information at sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales for decision making, the NWS Climate Services Program is striving to meet those needs by accelerating transition of research to operations, improving delivery of products and services, and enhancing partnerships to facilitate provision of seamless weather, water, and climate products and services at regional and local scales. Additionally, NWS forecasters are requesting more tools to be able to put severe weather and water events into a climate context to provide more effective impact-based decision support services (IDSS). This paper will describe the activities to more effectively integrate climate services into the NWS suite of environmental information, the roles of the NWS offices supporting or delivering sub-seasonal and seasonal information to the US public, and engaging NWS core and deep-core partners in provision of information on climatological risks and preparedness as a part of IDSS. We will discuss the process by which we collect user requests and/or needs and the NWS process that allows us to move these requests and needs through a formal requirements validation process and thus place the requirement on a path to identify a potential solution for implementation. The validation of a NWS climate-related requirement is also key to identify research, development, and transition mission delivery needs that are supported through the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Climate Program Office (CPO). In addition, we will present the outcomes of key actions of the first ever NWS National Climate Services Meeting (NCSM) that was held in May

  2. Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, K.; Charles, A.; Barange, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change. Climate change interacts strongly with fishery systems, and adds to the inherent uncertainty...... that understanding these aspects of fishery systems and fishery governance is valuable even in the absence of climate-induced processes of change, but that attention to climate change both reinforces the need for, and facilitates the move toward, implementation of integrative science for improved fishery governance....... and processes – to support suitable institutional responses, a broader planning perspective, and development of suitable resilience-building strategies. The paper explores how synergies between institutional change and integrative science can facilitate the development of more effective fisheries policy...

  3. Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

    2016-04-01

    This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

  4. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  5. Integrated Climate Smart Flood Management for Accra, Ghana ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · What we do ... The research team will use evidence to develop an integrated climate smart flood management framework to support policymaking. ... The Ministry of Environment, Science, Technology, and Innovation will manage the ...

  6. Magnitudes and timing of seasonal peak snowpack water equivalents in Arizona: A preliminary study of the possible effects of recent climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter F. Ffolliott; Gerald J. Gottfried

    2010-01-01

    Field measurements and computer-based predictions suggest that the magnitudes of seasonal peak snowpack water equivalents are becoming less and the timing of these peaks is occurring earlier in the snowmelt-runoff season of the western United States. These changes in peak snowpack conditions have often been attributed to a warming of the regional climate. To determine...

  7. Integrating Climate Change Science and Sustainability in Environmental Science, Sociology, Philosophy and Business Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Cantzler, J.; Croom, S.; Huston, C.; Woods, M.

    2015-12-01

    Courses on sustainability can be taught from multiple perspectives with some focused on specific areas (environmental, socio-cultural, economic, ethics) and others taking a more integrated approach across areas of sustainability and academic disciplines. In conjunction with the Climate Change Education Program efforts to enhance climate change literacy with innovative approaches, resources and communication strategies developed by Climate Education Partners were used in two distinct ways to integrate climate change science and impacts into undergraduate and graduate level courses. At the graduate level, the first lecture in the MBA program in Sustainable Supply Chain Management is entirely dedicated to climate change science, local and global impacts and discussions about key messages to communicate to the business community. Basic science concepts are integrated with discussions about mitigation and adaptation focused on business leaders. The concepts learned are then applied to the semester-long business plan project for the students. At the undergraduate level, a new model of comprehensive integration across disciplines was implemented in Spring 2015 across three courses on Sustainability each with a specific lens: Natural Science, Sociology and Philosophy. All three courses used climate change as the 'big picture' framing concept and had similar learning objectives creating a framework where lens-specific topics, focusing on depth in a discipline, were balanced with integrated exercises across disciplines providing breadth and possibilities for integration. The comprehensive integration project was the creation of the climate action plan for the university with each team focused on key areas of action (water, energy, transportation, etc.) and each team built with at least one member from each class ensuring a natural science, sociological and philosophical perspective. The final project was presented orally to all three classes and an integrated paper included

  8. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  9. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Yi Loo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  10. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass

    2009-01-01

    absorption (3.3 ± 1.24 W·m−2·10 yr−1) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the climate system.

  11. Towards a Seamless Framework for Drought Analysis and Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time Scales (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin

    2013-04-01

    Droughts arguably cause the most impacts of all natural hazards in terms of the number of people affected and the long-term economic costs and ecosystem stresses. Recent droughts worldwide have caused humanitarian and economic problems such as food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, agricultural economic losses across the central US and loss of livelihoods in rural western India. The prospect of future increases in drought severity and duration driven by projected changes in precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures is worrisome. Some evidence for climate change impacts on drought is already being seen for some regions, such as the Mediterranean and east Africa. Mitigation of the impacts of drought requires advance warning of developing conditions and enactment of drought plans to reduce vulnerability. A key element of this is a drought early warning system that at its heart is the capability to monitor evolving hydrological conditions and water resources storage, and provide reliable and robust predictions out to several months, as well as the capacity to act on this information. At longer time scales, planning and policy-making need to consider the potential impacts of climate change and its impact on drought risk, and do this within the context of natural climate variability, which is likely to dominate any climate change signal over the next few decades. There are several challenges that need to be met to advance our capability to provide both early warning at seasonal time scales and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Advancing our understanding of drought predictability and risk requires knowledge of drought at all time scales. This includes understanding of past drought occurrence, from the paleoclimate record to the recent past, and understanding of drought mechanisms, from initiation, through persistence to recovery and translation of this understanding to predictive models. Current approaches to monitoring and

  12. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  13. Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1951 to 2050: toward an integrated strategy for climate impacts reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Russo, Aniello; Marincioni, Fausto; Appiotti, Federica

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates consequences and future impacts of climate change on the social and natural systems of the Marche Region (one of the 20 administrative divisions of Italy). This Region, is located in central part of the peninsula and borders the Adriatic Sea on the East and the Apennine mountains on the West. The Region extends for about 60 km E-W, and has a NW-SE coastline of about 170 km, covering a total area of 9366 km2. Multimodel projections over the Marche Regions, on daily, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation parameters, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km covering a time period from 1951 to 2050. Results detail a significant increase of daily, monthly and seasonal mean temperatures, especially in summer, with anomaly values reaching +3°C after the year 2025, referring to the model CliNo 1981-2010. Mountain areas show higher values of temperature anomalies than coastal ones of approximately 0.5 °C. Concurrently, a widespread decrease of seasonal precipitation appears to affect all seasons, except for autumn. Rainfall decrease and temperature increase could reduce the Region's aquifer recharge and overall availability of hydro resources. These alterations could affect human health, agricultural productivity, forest fires, coastal erosion, algal blooms and water quality. Ongoing analysis of extreme climatological indices (e.g. frequency of maximum daily temperature exceeding comfort thresholds) are expected to quantify such impacts. A first analysis, linking climate change to the hydrologic cycle, studied through the computation of the hydro-climatic intensity index (as defined by Giorgi et al., 2012), suggests for the Marche Region an increase of the intensity of

  14. Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, andlife-history characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Becky M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

    2011-01-01

    Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, ...

  15. SPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOUR OVER THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA DURING MONSOON SEASON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salihin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides the precise information on spatial-temporal distribution of water vapour that was retrieved from Zenith Path Delay (ZPD which was estimated by Global Positioning System (GPS processing over the Malaysian Peninsular. A time series analysis of these ZPD and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV values was done to capture the characteristic on their seasonal variation during monsoon seasons. This study was found that the pattern and distribution of atmospheric water vapour over Malaysian Peninsular in whole four years periods were influenced by two inter-monsoon and two monsoon seasons which are First Inter-monsoon, Second Inter-monsoon, Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon.

  16. A trial of music composition work on the theme of the marching season from spring to summer (An interdisciplinary class between music and climate education for the university students)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kuranoshin; Kato, Haruko

    2017-04-01

    The seasonality is a common important feature characterizing the climate in mid-latitude regions. However, many different factors relating to the seasonal cycles result in the great variety of the seasonal climate features from region to region even of the mid-latitudes. For example, there are many stages with rapid seasonal transitions in East Asia, greatly influenced by the considerable phase differences of seasonal cycle among the Asian monsoon subsystems. This also brings the remarkable change in the "seasonal feeling" from month to month around the Japan Islands. The seasonal increase in air temperature is especially large from March to April around the Japan Islands due to the rapid seasonal weakening of the Siberian High and the alternative passages of the extratropical cyclones and anticyclones there become more dominant in April (Kato et al. 2009). In May appearance frequency of the warm and dry clear day increases around the Japan Islands, in association with seasonal formation of the quasi-stationary Baiu front to its south (Kato and Kodama 1992). In the middle of June, the significant rainy season called the Baiu becomes the mature stage around the Japan Islands. The Baiu there terminates to be the midsummer around the middle of July. As such, people could feel rather great seasonal differences or rather various seasonal phenomena around the Japan Islands only within a few months, even for who do not have enough scientific knowledge on the climate. Inversely, the detailed perception or imagination of the seasonal features could help the scientific understanding of the climate and season. Following such viewpoint, an interdisciplinary class between music and science education was practiced for the students of Teaching Course of Music, Faculty of Education, Gifu Shotoku Gakuen Univesity. They are specialized in music and music education to become a teacher of primary school or a music teacher of junior high school. As for natural science, they have

  17. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

    2017-11-01

    Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

  18. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Freund

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

  19. The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

  20. Climate change in winter versus the growing-season leads to different effects on soil microbial activity in northern hardwood forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, P. O.; Templer, P. H.; Finzi, A.

    2014-12-01

    Mean winter air temperatures have risen by approximately 2.5˚ C per decade over the last fifty years in the northeastern U.S., reducing the maximum depth of winter snowpack by approximately 26 cm over this period and the duration of winter snow cover by 3.6 to 4.2 days per decade. Forest soils in this region are projected to experience a greater number of freeze-thaw cycles and lower minimum winter soil temperatures as the depth and duration of winter snow cover declines in the next century. Climate change is likely to result not only in lower soil temperatures during winter, but also higher soil temperatures during the growing-season. We conducted two complementary experiments to determine how colder soils in winter and warmer soils in the growing-season affect microbial activity in hardwood forests at Harvard Forest, MA and Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH. A combination of removing snow via shoveling and buried heating cables were used to induce freeze-thaw events during winter and to warm soils 5˚C above ambient temperatures during the growing-season. Increasing the depth and duration of soil frost via snow-removal resulted in short-term reductions in soil nitrogen (N) production via microbial proteolytic enzyme activity and net N mineralization following snowmelt, prior to tree leaf-out. Declining mass specific rates of carbon (C) and N mineralization associated with five years of snow removal at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest may be an indication of microbial physiological adaptation to winter climate change. Freeze-thaw cycles during winter reduced microbial extracellular enzyme activity and the temperature sensitivity of microbial C and N mineralization during the growing-season, potentially offsetting nutrient and soil C losses due to soil warming in the growing-season. Our multiple experimental approaches show that winter climate change is likely to contribute to reduced microbial activity in northern hardwood forests.

  1. Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

    2012-05-01

    The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

  2. Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Mozo, Herminia; Galan, Carmen; Jato, Victoria; Belmonte, Jordina; de la Guardia, Consuelo; Fernandez, Delia; Gutierrez, Montserrat; Aira, M; Roure, Joan; Ruiz, Luis; Trigo, Mar; Dominguez-Vilches, Eugenio

    2006-01-01

    The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.

  3. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  4. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

    2012-01-01

    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  5. The Effects of Climate Change on Variability of the Growing Seasons in the Elbe River Lowland, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Potopová, V.; Zahradníček, Pavel; Türkot, L.; Štěpánek, Petr; Soukup, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, č. 546920 (2015), s. 546920 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Central Europe * extremes * climate change * growing seasons * Elbe River Lowland Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.107, year: 2015

  6. Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

    2013-01-01

    Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

  7. Safety climate and culture: Integrating psychological and systems perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Tristan; Griffin, Mark A; Flatau Harrison, Huw; Neal, Andrew

    2017-07-01

    Safety climate research has reached a mature stage of development, with a number of meta-analyses demonstrating the link between safety climate and safety outcomes. More recently, there has been interest from systems theorists in integrating the concept of safety culture and to a lesser extent, safety climate into systems-based models of organizational safety. Such models represent a theoretical and practical development of the safety climate concept by positioning climate as part of a dynamic work system in which perceptions of safety act to constrain and shape employee behavior. We propose safety climate and safety culture constitute part of the enabling capitals through which organizations build safety capability. We discuss how organizations can deploy different configurations of enabling capital to exert control over work systems and maintain safe and productive performance. We outline 4 key strategies through which organizations to reconcile the system control problems of promotion versus prevention, and stability versus flexibility. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate

  9. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  10. Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

  11. A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

    2008-01-01

    Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

  12. From Fall to Spring, or Spring to Fall? Seasonal Cholera Transmission Cycles and Implications for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R.; Islam, S.; WE Reason

    2010-12-01

    Cholera remains a major public health threat in many developing countries around the world. The striking seasonality and the annual recurrence of this infectious disease in endemic areas continues to be of considerable interest to scientists and public health workers. Despite major advances in the ecological, and microbiological understanding of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent, the role of underlying macro-scale hydroclimatic processes in propagating the disease in different seasons and years is not well understood. The incidence of cholera in the Bengal Delta region, the ‘native homeland’ of cholera, shows distinct biannual peaks in the southern floodplains, as opposed to single annual peaks in coastal areas and the northern parts of Bangladesh, as well as other cholera-endemic regions in the world. A coupled analysis of the regional hydroclimate and cholera incidence reveals a strong association of the spatio-temporal variability of incidence peaks with seasonal processes and extreme events. At a seasonal scale, the cycles indicate a spring-fall transmission pattern, contrary to the prevalent notion of a fall-spring transmission cycle. We show that the asymmetric seasonal hydroclimatology affects regional cholera dynamics by providing a coastal growth environment for bacteria in spring, while propagating transmission to fall by flooding. This seasonal interpretation of the progression of cholera has important implications, for formulating effective cholera intervention and mitigation efforts through improved water management and understanding the impacts of changing climate patterns on seasonal cholera transmission. (Water Environental Research Education Actionable Solutions Network)

  13. Sharing skills and needs between providers and users of climate information to create climate services: lessons from the Northern Adriatic case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Giannini

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The need to cope with the expected impacts of climate change on socio-ecological systems calls for a closer dialogue between climate scientists and the community of climate information users. We describe an interactive process designed to bridge this gap by establishing a two-way communication, based on mutual learning. We analyse the need of climate information for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts on the coastal zone of the Northern Adriatic Sea, which is considered to be particularly vulnerable to several climate-related phenomena, e.g. heavy rainfall events, pluvial flood, and sea level rise, causing potentially high damage to coastal ecosystems and urban areas (e.g. acqua alta in the Venice Lagoon. A participatory process was designed engaging representatives from both the scientific and local stakeholders communities, and facilitated by a boundary organization, embodied by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change. End-users of climate information (e.g. decision makers belonging to public institutions were selected among representatives of those public institutions having a specific mandate for Integrated Coastal Zone Management, and engaged to identify their needs. During the early stages of the interaction process, several priorities were identified, including: (1 data to support land-use planning, (2 data with greater resolution and longer time series, (3 data on climate impacts and risks, (4 precipitation patterns to improve irrigation, (5 sea level rise and tides, (6 climate variations and extreme events, (7 seasonal trend for tidal waves, and (8 hydraulic risk. Three climate products were developed to address these needs: (1 short-term projections of sea level rise; (2 seasonal predictions of extreme rainfall events; (3 long-term regional projections of climate extremes (including heat waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events. Additionally, two risk products were developed: 4 sea level rise

  14. Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern

  15. Seasonal timing in a warming world : Plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salis, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the

  16. Statistical properties of the seasonal fractionally integrated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We investigate the properties of this new model providing stationary conditions, some explicit form of the autocovariance function and the spectral density. We also establish the asymptotic behaviour of the spectral density function near the seasonal frequencies. Keywords: Seasonality; Spatial short memory; Seasonal long ...

  17. Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reheis, M.C.; Urban, F.E.

    2011-01-01

    Vertical dust deposition rates (dust flux) are a complex response to the interaction of seasonal precipitation, wind, changes in plant cover and land use, dust source type, and local vs. distant dust emission in the southwestern U.S. Seasonal dust flux in the Mojave-southern Great Basin (MSGB) deserts, measured from 1999 to 2008, is similar in summer-fall and winter-spring, and antecedent precipitation tends to suppress dust flux in winter-spring. In contrast, dust flux in the eastern Colorado Plateau (ECP) region is much larger in summer-fall than in winter-spring, and twice as large as in the MSGB. ECP dust is related to wind speed, and in the winter-spring to antecedent moisture. Higher summer dust flux in the ECP is likely due to gustier winds and runoff during monsoonal storms when temperature is also higher. Source types in the MSGB and land use in the ECP have important effects on seasonal dust flux. In the MSGB, wet playas produce salt-rich dust during wetter seasons, whereas antecedent and current moisture suppress dust emission from alluvial and dry-playa sources during winter-spring. In the ECP under drought conditions, dust flux at a grazed-and-plowed site increased greatly, and also increased at three annualized, previously grazed sites. Dust fluxes remained relatively consistent at ungrazed and currently grazed sites that have maintained perennial vegetation cover. Under predicted scenarios of future climate change, these results suggest that an increase in summer storms may increase dust flux in both areas, but resultant effects will depend on source type, land use, and vegetation cover. ?? 2011.

  18. Seasonal and geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery (shigellosis) and associated climate risk factors in Kon Tam Province in Vietnam from 1999 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hu Suk; Ha Hoang, T T; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Lee, Mihye; Grace, Delia; Phung, Dac Cam; Thuc, Vu Minh; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

    2017-06-21

    Bacillary dysentery (BD) is an acute bacterial infection of the intestine caused by Shigella spp., with clinical symptoms ranging from fever to bloody diarrhoea to abdominal cramps to tenesmus. In Vietnam, enteric bacterial pathogens are an important cause of diarrhoea and most cases in children under 5 years of age are due to Shigella strains. The serogroups S. flexneri and S. sonnei are considered to be the most common. The main objective of this study was to, for the first time, assess the seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD in Vietnam, and to determine the climate risk factors associated with the incidence of BD in Kon Tum Province, where the highest rate of bacillary dysentery was observed from 1999 to 2013. The seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD was assessed in Vietnam using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess. In addition, negative binomial regression models were used to determine the climate risk factors associated with the incidence of BD in Kon Tum Province, from 1999 to 2013. Overall, incidence rates of BD have slightly decreased over time (except for an extremely high incidence in 2012 in the north of Vietnam). The central regions (north/south central coast and central highlands) had relatively high incidence rates, whereas the northwest/east and Red River Delta regions had low incidence rates. Overall, seasonal plots showed a high peak in the mid-rainy reason and a second smaller peak in the early or late rainy season. The incidence rates significantly increased between May and October ("wet season") across the country. In Kon Tum Province, temperature, humidity, and precipitation were found to be positively associated with the incidence of BD. Our findings provide insights into the seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD in Vietnam and its associated climate risk factors in Kon Tum Province. This study may help clinicians and the general public to better understand the timings of

  19. Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinkle, Ross [University of Central Florida; Benscoter, Brian [Florida Atlantic University; Comas, Xavier [Florida Atlantic University; Sumner, David [USGS; DeAngelis, Donald [USGS

    2015-04-07

    Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regional carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.

  20. Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya - Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M G; Maass, Brigitte L; Whitbread, Anthony M

    2017-01-01

    Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [ Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha -1 . An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter

  1. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

    2012-08-15

    This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

  2. The Growth Periods Responses of Double-season Paddy Rice to Climate Change in Hunan Province, China over the Past Two Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Li, Y.; Yi, M.; Ye, T.

    2015-12-01

    The shifts of timing and length of the growing season (TLGS) are important indicators of crop response to climate change. With the help of satellite image data, it becomes feasible to retrieve the TLGS in a spatially continuous manner, which also accommodates local variation of TGSs. In this article, the TGSs of paddy rice in Hunan Province, China since 1995 was retrieved using times-series curves of MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). The change in TLGS and its connection to regional climate change was discussed. The results showed the advance of TGSs of double-season paddy rice and the reduction of GSL in the past 20 years, which is believed to be linked to the rise in the temperature and precipitation in the growth periods. Understanding the local variation and trend of TLGS influenced by climate change is essential for making agricultural adaptive policies to reduce the risk of crop damaged, also can provide key information for studying how multi-hazards affect crop exposure.

  3. Estimation of Seasonal Efficiency of Sochi Resort Climate Therapy by Means of Psychologic Testing of Patients with Cardiometabolic Pathology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina N. Sorochinskaya

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases are major reasons for population mortality in majority of countries, including Russia. Metabolic syndrome is considered to be one of the main pathologic states, leading to enhancement of atherogenesis, ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases. Physical methods, including resort treatment play great role in metabolic syndrome prevention and treatment. Climate therapy depends on resort climate and season and is a major component of resort treatment. Psychological testing showed that combined resort treatment, using climate therapy of patients with stable effort angina at Sochi Health-resort is more efficient in autumn and of patients with metabolic syndrome in summer. The findings have been confirmed by clinic-functional indicators.

  4. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  5. Understanding the Response of Photosynthetic Metabolism in Tropical Forests to Seasonal Climate Variations. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dye, Dennis [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Ivanov, Valeriy [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Huete, Alfredo [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Univ. of Technology, Sydney NSW (Australia)

    2017-03-31

    This U.S-Brazil collaboration for GOAmazon has investigated a deceptively simple question: what controls the response of photosynthesis in Amazon tropical forests to seasonal variations in climate? In the past this question has been difficult to answer with modern earth system process models. We hypothesized that observed dry season increases in photosynthetic capacity are controlled by the phenology of leaf flush and litter fall, from which the seasonal pattern of LAI emerges. Our results confirm this hypothesis (Wu et al., 2016). Synthesis of data collected throughout the 3-year project period continues through December 31, 2017 under no-cost extensions granted to the project teams at University of Michigan and University of Arizona (Award 2). The USGS component (Award 1) ceased on the final date of the project performance period, December 31, 2016. This report summarizes the overall activities and achievements of the project, and constitutes the final project report for the USGS component. The University of Michigan will submit a separate final report that includes additional results and deliverables achieved during the period of their and the University of Arizona’s no-cost extension, which will end on December 31, 2017.

  6. Effects of Climate and land use on diversity, prevalence, and seasonal transmission of avian hematozoa in American Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Carter T.; Utuzurrum, Ruth B.; Seamon, Joshua O.; Schmaedick, Mark A.; Lapointe, Dennis; Apelgren, Chloe; Egan, Ariel N.; Watcher-Weatherwax, William

    2016-01-01

    The indigenous forest birds of American Samoa are increasingly threatened by changing patterns of rainfall and temperature that are associated with climate change as well as environmental stressors associated with agricultural and urban development, invasive species, and new introductions of avian diseases and disease vectors. Long term changes in their distribution, diversity, and population sizes could have significant impacts on the ecological integrity of the islands because of their critical role as pollinators and seed dispersers. We documented diversity of vector borne parasites on Tutuila and Ta‘u Islands over a 10-year period to expand earlier observations of Plasmodium, Trypanosoma, and filarial parasites, to provide better parasite identifications, and to create a better baseline for detecting new parasite introductions. We also identified potential mosquito vectors of avian Plasmodium and Trypanosoma, determined whether land clearing and habitat alterations associated with subsistence farming within the National Park of American Samoa can influence parasite prevalence, and determined whether parasite prevalence is correlated with seasonal changes in rainfall, temperature and wind speed.

  7. Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

    2015-12-01

    Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

  8. Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

    2001-12-01

    This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

  9. Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

  10. Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

    2012-01-01

    Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

  11. Linear relations between leaf mass per area (LMA) and seasonal climate discovered through Linear Manifold Clustering (LMC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiang, N. Y.; Haralick, R. M.; Diky, A.; Kattge, J.; Su, X.

    2016-12-01

    Leaf mass per area (LMA) is a critical variable in plant carbon allocation, correlates with leaf activity traits (photosynthetic activity, respiration), and is a controller of litterfall mass and hence carbon substrate for soil biogeochemistry. Recent advances in understanding the leaf economics spectrum (LES) show that LMA has a strong correlation with leaf life span, a trait that reflects ecological strategy, whereas physiological traits that control leaf activity scale with each other when mass-normalized (Osnas et al., 2013). These functional relations help reduce the number of independent variables in quantifying leaf traits. However, LMA is an independent variable that remains a challenge to specify in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), when vegetation types are classified into a limited number of plant functional types (PFTs) without clear mechanistic drivers for LMA. LMA can range orders of magnitude across plant species, as well as vary within a single plant, both vertically and seasonally. As climate relations in combination with alternative ecological strategies have yet to be well identified for LMA, we have assembled 22,000 records of LMA spanning 0.004 - 33 mg/m2 from the numerous contributors to the TRY database (Kattge et al., 2011), with observations distributed over several climate zones and plant functional categories (growth form, leaf type, phenology). We present linear relations between LMA and climate variables, including seasonal temperature, precipitation, and radiation, as derived through Linear Manifold Clustering (LMC). LMC is a stochastic search technique for identifying linear dependencies between variables in high dimensional space. We identify a set of parsimonious classes of LMA-climate groups based on a metric of minimum description to identify structure in the data set, akin to data compression. The relations in each group are compared to Köppen-Geiger climate classes, with some groups revealing continuous linear relations

  12. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  13. Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joacim Rocklöv

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation, while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

  14. Integrated Drought Monitoring and Forecasts for Decision Making in Water and Agricultural Sectors over the Southeastern US under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Ward, R.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate arising from structured oscillations such as ENSO and rising temperature poses challenging issues in meeting the increasing water demand (due to population growth) for public supply and agriculture over the Southeast US. This together with infrastructural (e.g., most reservoirs being within-year systems) and operational (e.g., static rule curves) constraints requires an integrated approach that seamlessly monitors and forecasts water and soil moisture conditions to support adaptive decision making in water and agricultural sectors. In this talk, we discuss the utility of an integrated drought management portal that both monitors and forecasts streamflow and soil moisture over the southeast US. The forecasts are continuously developed and updated by forcing monthly-to-seasonal climate forecasts with a land surface model for various target basins. The portal also houses a reservoir allocation model that allows water managers to explore different release policies in meeting the system constraints and target storages conditioned on the forecasts. The talk will also demonstrate how past events (e.g., 2007-2008 drought) could be proactively monitored and managed to improve decision making in water and agricultural sectors over the Southeast US. Challenges in utilizing the portal information from institutional and operational perspectives will also be presented.

  15. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

    2012-06-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated

  16. Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

    2018-01-01

    Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

  17. Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Bellprat

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Southern Africa and Southern South America have experienced recent extremes in dry and wet rainy seasons which have caused severe socio-economic damages. Selected past extreme events are here studied, to estimate how human activity has changed the risk of the occurrence of such events, by applying an event attribution approach (Stott et al., 2004comprising global climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5. Our assessment shows that models' representation of mean precipitation variability over Southern South America is not adequate to make a robust attribution statement about seasonal rainfall extremes in this region. Over Southern Africa, we show that unusually dry austral summers as occurred during 2002/2003 have become more likely, whereas unusually wet austral summers like that of 1999/2000 have become less likely due to anthropogenic climate change. There is some tentative evidence that the risk of extreme high 5-day precipitation totals (as observed in 1999/2000 have increased in the region. These results are consistent with CMIP5 models projecting a general drying trend over SAF during December–January–February (DJF but also an increase in atmospheric moisture availability to feed heavy rainfall events when they do occur. Bootstrapping the confidence intervals of the fraction of attributable risk has demonstrated estimates of attributable risk are very uncertain, if the events are very rare. The study highlights some of the challenges in making an event attribution study for precipitation using seasonal precipitation and extreme 5-day precipitation totals and considering natural drivers such as ENSO in coupled ocean–atmosphere models.

  18. Characterization of the rainy season in Burkina Faso and it's representation by regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibrahim, B.; Karambiri, H. [Institut International d' Ingenierie de l' Eau et de l' Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou 01 (Burkina Faso); Polcher, J. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique du CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Rockel, B. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Institute of Coastal Research/Group Regional Atmospheric Modeling, Geesthacht (Germany)

    2012-09-15

    West African monsoon is one of the most challenging climate components to model. Five regional climate models (RCMs) were run over the West African region with two lateral boundary conditions, ERA-Interim re-analysis and simulations from two general circulation models (GCMs). Two sets of daily rainfall data were generated from these boundary conditions. These simulated rainfall data are analyzed here in comparison to daily rainfall data collected over a network of ten synoptic stations in Burkina Faso from 1990 to 2004. The analyses are based on a description of the rainy season throughout a number of it's characteristics. It was found that the two sets of rainfall data produced with the two driving data present significant biases. The RCMs generally produce too frequent low rainfall values (between 0.1 and 5 mm/day) and too high extreme rainfalls (more than twice the observed values). The high frequency of low rainfall events in the RCMs induces shorter dry spells at the rainfall thresholds of 0.1-1 mm/day. Altogether, there are large disagreements between the models on the simulate season duration and the annual rainfall amounts but most striking are their differences in representing the distribution of rainfall intensity. It is remarkable that these conclusions are valid whether the RCMs are driven by re-analysis or GCMs. In none of the analyzed rainy season characteristics, a significant improvement of their representation can be found when the RCM is forced by the re-analysis, indicating that these deficiencies are intrinsic to the models. (orig.)

  19. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  20. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

    2015-01-01

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  1. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helder Fraga

    Full Text Available The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  2. Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability over Africa using AERONET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Hannah M.; Garland, Rebecca M.; Thatcher, Marcus; Landman, Willem A.; Dedekind, Zane; van der Merwe, Jacobus; Engelbrecht, Francois A.

    2017-11-01

    The sensitivity of climate models to the characterization of African aerosol particles is poorly understood. Africa is a major source of dust and biomass burning aerosols and this represents an important research gap in understanding the impact of aerosols on radiative forcing of the climate system. Here we evaluate the current representation of aerosol particles in the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) with ground-based remote retrievals across Africa, and additionally provide an analysis of observed aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550 nm) and Ångström exponent data from 34 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Analysis of the 34 long-term AERONET sites confirms the importance of dust and biomass burning emissions to the seasonal cycle and magnitude of AOD550 nm across the continent and the transport of these emissions to regions outside of the continent. In general, CCAM captures the seasonality of the AERONET data across the continent. The magnitude of modeled and observed multiyear monthly average AOD550 nm overlap within ±1 standard deviation of each other for at least 7 months at all sites except the Réunion St Denis Island site (Réunion St. Denis). The timing of modeled peak AOD550 nm in southern Africa occurs 1 month prior to the observed peak, which does not align with the timing of maximum fire counts in the region. For the western and northern African sites, it is evident that CCAM currently overestimates dust in some regions while others (e.g., the Arabian Peninsula) are better characterized. This may be due to overestimated dust lifetime, or that the characterization of the soil for these areas needs to be updated with local information. The CCAM simulated AOD550 nm for the global domain is within the spread of previously published results from CMIP5 and AeroCom experiments for black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols. The model's performance provides confidence for using the model to estimate large-scale regional impacts

  3. Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability over Africa using AERONET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Horowitz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of climate models to the characterization of African aerosol particles is poorly understood. Africa is a major source of dust and biomass burning aerosols and this represents an important research gap in understanding the impact of aerosols on radiative forcing of the climate system. Here we evaluate the current representation of aerosol particles in the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM with ground-based remote retrievals across Africa, and additionally provide an analysis of observed aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550 nm and Ångström exponent data from 34 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET sites. Analysis of the 34 long-term AERONET sites confirms the importance of dust and biomass burning emissions to the seasonal cycle and magnitude of AOD550 nm across the continent and the transport of these emissions to regions outside of the continent. In general, CCAM captures the seasonality of the AERONET data across the continent. The magnitude of modeled and observed multiyear monthly average AOD550 nm overlap within ±1 standard deviation of each other for at least 7 months at all sites except the Réunion St Denis Island site (Réunion St. Denis. The timing of modeled peak AOD550 nm in southern Africa occurs 1 month prior to the observed peak, which does not align with the timing of maximum fire counts in the region. For the western and northern African sites, it is evident that CCAM currently overestimates dust in some regions while others (e.g., the Arabian Peninsula are better characterized. This may be due to overestimated dust lifetime, or that the characterization of the soil for these areas needs to be updated with local information. The CCAM simulated AOD550 nm for the global domain is within the spread of previously published results from CMIP5 and AeroCom experiments for black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols. The model's performance provides confidence for using the model to estimate

  4. National parks, ecological integrity and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopoukhine, N.

    1990-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on the national parks of Canada are discussed. There is a requirement to protect and manage national parks to maintain a functioning ecosystem with all its parts and processes. An active management regime is necessary, with objectives of ecological diversity/integrity clearly stated. The national parks located in the Canadian Prairie provinces are on or near transitions from forest to tundra and grasslands, and are likely to exhibit the most dramatic changes. The change in vegetation of such parks and in others will not manifest itself simply as a shift of zones but will be accompanied by a flora with new dominants. The boreal forest within the Prairie provinces is fire dependent and has the potential of being transformed into remnant units should post-fire germination be hampered by climatic change. A rapid change in climate would render national parks unable to provide protection of representative elements of Canada's landscapes as presently known. A threefold increase in the area dedicated to protection is a basic component of the sustainable development prescription. All government and private lands dedicated to protection should be forged into a network, to provide core protection for immigrating and emigrating communities and individual species displaced by a changing climate. 20 refs., 2 figs

  5. International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

    2017-05-01

    Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

  6. Statistical post-processing of seasonal multi-model forecasts: Why is it so hard to beat the multi-model mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegert, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Initialised climate forecasts on seasonal time scales, run several months or even years ahead, are now an integral part of the battery of products offered by climate services world-wide. The availability of seasonal climate forecasts from various modeling centres gives rise to multi-model ensemble forecasts. Post-processing such seasonal-to-decadal multi-model forecasts is challenging 1) because the cross-correlation structure between multiple models and observations can be complicated, 2) because the amount of training data to fit the post-processing parameters is very limited, and 3) because the forecast skill of numerical models tends to be low on seasonal time scales. In this talk I will review new statistical post-processing frameworks for multi-model ensembles. I will focus particularly on Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches, which are flexible enough to capture commonly made assumptions about collective and model-specific biases of multi-model ensembles. Despite the advances in statistical methodology, it turns out to be very difficult to out-perform the simplest post-processing method, which just recalibrates the multi-model ensemble mean by linear regression. I will discuss reasons for this, which are closely linked to the specific characteristics of seasonal multi-model forecasts. I explore possible directions for improvements, for example using informative priors on the post-processing parameters, and jointly modelling forecasts and observations.

  7. Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Sennhenn

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L., cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L. Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L. Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM. The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index. While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and

  8. Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M. G.; Maass, Brigitte L.; Whitbread, Anthony M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter

  9. Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News ; Seasonal Climate Summary Archive The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is

  10. Changes in climate suitability for tourism at Adriatic coast since 1961

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2017-04-01

    The aim of the paper is the comparison of suitability of climate conditions for tourism at the eastern Adriatic coast in the period 1961-2015. For quantitative estimation of suitability of climate for different kinds of tourism, climate index for tourism (CIT) is used. CIT integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical facets of atmospheric environment and therefore is suitable for estimation of climate satisfaction that ranges from very poor to very good. The thermal component is estimated using the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The index is applied for: beach tourism, cycling, hiking, cultural tourism, golf, football, motor boating and sailing. Changes in climate potential of tourism are estimated by differences of distribution of climate index for tourism. For the warmest part of the day, the results indicate the extension of the summer tourist season for beach tourism at the end of the analyzed period. On the other hand, for other tourist activities in the same period the results indicate more pronounced bimodal distribution of CIT during year, resulting with the seasonality shift of ideal conditions for most activities to spring and autumn. Besides, in the morning the improvement of favourable climate conditions for all types of tourism at the end of the period.

  11. Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-05-01

    Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

  12. Non-stationary analysis of dry spells in monsoon season of Senegal River Basin using data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraldo Osorio, J. D.; García Galiano, S. G.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Senegal River Basin, located in West Africa, has been affected by several droughts since the end of the 1960s. In its valley, which is densely populated and highly vulnerable to climate variability and water availability, agricultural activities provide the livelihood for thousands of people. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will allow to improve the adaptation and mitigation measures in order to build "adaptive capacity" to climate change in West Africa. An innovative methodology for the non-stationary analysis of droughts events, which allows the prediction of regional trends associated to several return periods, is presented. The analyses were based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the European ENSEMBLES project for West Africa, together with observed data. A non-stationary behaviour of the annual series of maximum length of dry spells (AMDSL) in the monsoon season is reflected in temporal changes in mean and variance. The non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological series, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, is the main criticism to traditional frequency analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the modelling tool GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape), is applied to develop regional probability density functions (pdfs) fitted to AMDSL series for the monsoon season in the Senegal River Basin. The skills of RCMs in the representation of maximum length of dry spells observed for the period 1970-1990, are evaluated considering observed data. Based on the results obtained, a first selection of the RCMs with which to apply GAMLSS to the AMDSL series identified, for the time period 1970-2050, is made. The results of GAMLSS analysis exhibit divergent trends, with different value ranges for parameters of probability distributions being detected. Therefore, in the second stage of the paper, regional pdfs are constructed using bootstrapping distributions based on probabilistic

  13. Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

    2017-08-16

    The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

  14. How well do growing season dynamics of photosynthetic capacity correlate with leaf biochemistry and climate fluctuations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, Danielle A; Stinziano, Joseph R; Berghoff, Henry; Oren, Ram

    2017-07-01

    Accurate values of photosynthetic capacity are needed in Earth System Models to predict gross primary productivity. Seasonal changes in photosynthetic capacity in these models are primarily driven by temperature, but recent work has suggested that photoperiod may be a better predictor of seasonal photosynthetic capacity. Using field-grown kudzu (Pueraria lobata (Willd.) Ohwi), a nitrogen-fixing vine species, we took weekly measurements of photosynthetic capacity, leaf nitrogen, and pigment and photosynthetic protein concentrations and correlated these with temperature, irradiance and photoperiod over the growing season. Photosynthetic capacity was more strongly correlated with photoperiod than with temperature or daily irradiance, while the growing season pattern in photosynthetic capacity was uncoupled from changes in leaf nitrogen, chlorophyll and Rubisco. Daily estimates of the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) based on either photoperiod or temperature were correlated in a non-linear manner, but Vcmax estimates from both approaches that also accounted for diurnal temperature fluctuations were similar, indicating that differences between these models depend on the relevant time step. We advocate for considering photoperiod, and not just temperature, when estimating photosynthetic capacity across the year, particularly as climate change alters temperatures but not photoperiod. We also caution that the use of leaf biochemical traits as proxies for estimating photosynthetic capacity may be unreliable when the underlying relationships between proxy leaf traits and photosynthetic capacity are established outside of a seasonal framework. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Effect of climatic conditions, season and wastewater quality on contaminant removal efficiency of two experimental constructed wetlands in different regions of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfí, Marianna; Pedescoll, Anna; Bécares, Eloy; Hijosa-Valsero, María; Sidrach-Cardona, Ricardo; García, Joan

    2012-10-15

    The aim of this study was to examine the effects of climate, season and wastewater quality on contaminant removal efficiency of constructed wetlands implemented in Mediterranean and continental-Mediterranean climate region of Spain. To this end, two experimental horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands located in Barcelona and León (Spain) were compared. The two constructed wetland systems had the same experimental set-up. Each wetland had a surface area of 2.95 m(2), a water depth of 25 cm and a granular medium of D(60)=7.3 mm, and was planted with Phragmites australis. Both systems were designed in order to operate with a maximum organic loading rate of 6 g(DBO) m(-2) d(-1). Experimental systems operated with a hydraulic loading rate of 28.5 and 98 mm d(-1) in Barcelona and León, respectively. Total suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium mass removal efficiencies followed seasonal trends, with higher values in the summer (97.4% vs. 97.8%; 97.1% vs. 96.2%; 99.9% vs. 88.9%, in Barcelona and León systems, respectively) than in the winter (83.5% vs. 74.4%; 73.2% vs. 60.6%; 19% vs. no net removal for ammonium in Barcelona and León systems, respectively). During the cold season, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium removal were significantly higher in Barcelona system than in León, as a result of higher temperature and redox potential in Barcelona. During the warm season, statistical differences were observed only for ammonium removal. Results showed that horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetland is a successful technology for both regions considered, even if winter seemed to be a critical period for ammonium removal in continental climate regions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  17. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  18. International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

    2016-01-01

    Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. PMID:28943813

  19. Analysis of winter climate simulations performed with ARPEGE-Climat (T63) in the framework of PROVOST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parey, S.; Dichampt-Martineu, Ch.; Caneill, J.Y. [Electricite de France, 78 - Chatou (France). Research Branch, Environment

    1997-12-01

    The interest of EDF for seasonal forecasting is a consequence of the high sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature, especially during the winter season. That is why the Research branch of EDF is involved in the PROVOST project (PRediction Of climate Variations On Seasonal and inter-annual Timescales). Two sets of simulations are studied. The first one was calculated apart from the PROVOST experiments with the LMD model covering the 1970 to 1992 winters with eleven simulations per winter. The second one was calculated at EDF in the framework of PROVOST with ARPEGE-Climat model, covering the 1979 to 1994 winters (nine simulations per winter). The probabilistic formulation of climatic scenarios in function of the seasonal simulations with ARPEGE-Climat gives good results if the monthly mean temperature is taken into account. (R.P.) 3 refs.

  20. Seasonal timing in a warming world : plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

    OpenAIRE

    Salis, L.

    2015-01-01

    In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the study of seasonal timing in the food chain of the oak-winter moth-great tit. As temperature increased over the last decades, both phenologies of the host plant, the oak, and the herbivorous insect, t...

  1. The Last Interglacial recorded in a Remouchamps cave speleothem (Belgium) -Information on seasonal changes and on the chronology of first climate deteriorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheyden, Sophie; Genty, Dominique; Blamart, Dominique; Cheng, Hai; Hodel, Florent; Vansteenberghe, Stef; McGavick, Matthew L.; Gillikin, David P.; Quinif, Yves

    2015-04-01

    A ~3m long stalagmite from the Remouchamps and ~15cm long stalagmite from the Han-sur-Lesse caves (Belgium) grew from ~124 to 100ka with growth rates going from 0.8mm/century to 30mm/century. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and growth-rate analyses suggest a rather stable climate from 122.0 to 115.8 ka. A clear climate deterioration is observed at ~115.8 ka and lasts until 111.2ka (±0.5ka, 2s), which corresponds well with Greenland Stadial 26. Several short-term but clear changes are observed in the stable isotopic composition at ~121.5, 119.5, 118.4, 117.6 (±0.5ka, 2s)) and are interpreted as climatic events of ~several hundred years long. They correspond with changes in stalagmite diameter and growth rate. Depending on the combination of changes in the d18O, d13C, growth rate and stalagmite diameter, the events are interpreted as corresponding to changes in rainfall amount or temperature. The RSM17 stalagmite exhibits visible seasonal layering during the entire 120-115ka period on which changes in Mg, Sr, Ba en P have been observed. This well pronounced lamination, likely annual as suggested by the U-Th data, demonstrates a strong seasonal character of the climate and/or vegetation activity during this period. We compare these MIS5 seasonality to the present day calcite layering observed in the cave. Both stalagmites, with a growth-rate increase after 125ka globally corresponding to the so-called Eemian optimum, seem to start later than other southern stalagmites from France, Italy or Spain. This observation raises the question of a possible late onset of interglacial conditions in north-west Europe and a progressive S-N advance of warmer conditions between 130 and 125ka through Western Europe.

  2. Seasonal variations of Saanen goat milk composition and the impact of climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kljajevic, Nemanja V; Tomasevic, Igor B; Miloradovic, Zorana N; Nedeljkovic, Aleksandar; Miocinovic, Jelena B; Jovanovic, Snezana T

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of climatic conditions and their impact on seasonal variations of physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk produced over a period of 4 years. Lactation period (early, mid and late) and year were considered as factors that influence physico-chemical composition of milk. Pearson's coefficient of correlation was calculated between the physico-chemical characteristics of milk (fat, proteins, lactose, non-fat dry matter, density, freezing point, pH, titrable acidity) and climatic condition parameters (air temperature, temperature humidity index-THI, solar radiation duration, relative humidity). Results showed that all physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk varied significantly throughout the lactation period and years. The decrease of fat, protein, non-fat dry matter and lactose content in goat milk during the mid-lactation period was more pronounced than was previously reported in the literature. The highest values for these characteristics were recorded in the late lactation period. Observed variations were explained by negative correlation between THI and the physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk. This indicated that Saanen goats were very prone to heat stress, which implied the decrease of physico-chemical characteristics during hot summers.

  3. Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giunta, G.; Salerno, R.; Ceppi, A.; Ercolani, G.; Mancini, M.

    2015-12-01

    From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market.

  4. Ageing, exposure to pollution, and interactions between climate change and local seasons as oxidant conditions predicting incident hematologic malignancy at KINSHASA University clinics, Democratic Republic of CONGO (DRC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkanga, Mireille Solange Nganga; Longo-Mbenza, Benjamin; Adeniyi, Oladele Vincent; Ngwidiwo, Jacques Bikaula; Katawandja, Antoine Lufimbo; Kazadi, Paul Roger Beia; Nzonzila, Alain Nganga

    2017-08-23

    The global burden of hematologic malignancy (HM) is rapidly rising with aging, exposure to polluted environments, and global and local climate variability all being well-established conditions of oxidative stress. However, there is currently no information on the extent and predictors of HM at Kinshasa University Clinics (KUC), DR Congo (DRC). This study evaluated the impact of bio-clinical factors, exposure to polluted environments, and interactions between global climate changes (EL Nino and La Nina) and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) on the incidence of HM. This hospital-based prospective cohort study was conducted at Kinshasa University Clinics in DR Congo. A total of 105 black African adult patients with anaemia between 2009 and 2016 were included. HM was confirmed by morphological typing according to the French-American-British (FAB) Classification System. Gender, age, exposure to traffic pollution and garages/stations, global climate variability (El Nino and La Nina), and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) were potential independent variables to predict incident HM using Cox regression analysis and Kaplan Meier curves. Out of the total 105 patients, 63 experienced incident HM, with an incidence rate of 60%. After adjusting for gender, HIV/AIDS, and other bio-clinical factors, the most significant independent predictors of HM were age ≥ 55 years (HR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.4-4.3; P = 0.003), exposure to pollution and garages or stations (HR = 4.9; 95% CI 2-12.1; P pollution, combined local dry season + La Nina and combined local dry season + El Nino were the most significant predictors of incident hematologic malignancy. These findings highlight the importance of aging, pollution, the dry season, El Nino and La Nina as related to global warming as determinants of hematologic malignancies among African patients from Kinshasa, DR Congo. Cancer registries in DRC and other African countries will provide more robust database for future researches on

  5. Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the incentives to participate in an international climate agreement and the stability of the resulting climate coalition using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Coalition stability is assessed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the aggregation of social welfare, and the severity of climate damages. The profitability, stability, and strong potential internal stability of a number of coalitions, those potentially effective in reducing GHG emissions, is explored in the paper. The main conclusion is that only the grand coalition, i.e. a coalition where all world regions cooperate to reduce emissions, can maintain GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO 2 -eq. However, this coalition is not internally stable, even when allowing for monetary transfers across world regions. Nonetheless, the paper also shows that strongly potentially internally stable coalitions exist, though of smaller size, which can mitigate global warming and limit GHG concentrations to 600 ppm CO 2 -eq. - Highlights: ► We analyse climate coalitions with an integrated assessment model. ► Coalitions’ profitability and stability is analysed under alternative assumptions. ► Effective coalitions should include larger emitters (such as India and China). ► A coalition that achieves 550 ppm CO 2 -eq is not internally stable. ► A stable coalition can achieve around 518 ppme in 2050 and 600 ppme in 2100

  6. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  7. Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating

  8. Robustness of a multiple-use reservoir to seasonal runoff shifts associated with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lettenmaier, D.P.; Brettman, K.L.

    1990-05-01

    Although much remains to be learned about long-term climate change associated with anthropogenic increases in concentrations of the so-called ''greenhouse gases,'' such as carbon dioxide and methane, there is a general consensus that some global warming will result from past and present emissions. In the western United States, the dominant hydrologic effect of such warming, aside from any accompanying changes in precipitation, would be to reduce winter snow accumulations in mountainous headwaters regions. To assess the robustness of reservoir operation to such shifts in seasonal runoff, simulations were developed of monthly runoff for the American River, Washington, using the National Weather Service River Forecast System. The American River is presently unregulated; however, we tested the performance of hypothetical reservoirs with capacity of 0.25 and 0.50 of the mean annual flow for a range of annual temperature changes from 0.0 (present climate) to 4.0 degree C. We considered a multiple-purpose reservoir system operated for water supply ad hydropower, with minimum releases required for fisheries enhancement. In addition to evaluating the sensitivity of water supply, low flow, and hydropower performance using a heuristic operating rule, the relative performance of the system under present and altered climates was evaluated using an optimization algorithm, extended linear quadratic Gaussian control. This paper reports the results of hydrologic simulations for the American River, Washington. 13 refs., 8 figs

  9. The mediating role of integration of safety by activity versus operator between organizational culture and safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auzoult, Laurent; Gangloff, Bernard

    2018-04-20

    In this study, we analyse the impact of the organizational culture and introduce a new variable, the integration of safety, which relates to the modalities for the implementation and adoption of safety in the work process, either through the activity or by the operator. One hundred and eighty employees replied to a questionnaire measuring the organizational climate, the safety climate and the integration of safety. We expected that implementation centred on the activity or on the operator would mediate the relationship between the organizational culture and the safety climate. The results support our assumptions. A regression analysis highlights the positive impact on the safety climate of organizational values of the 'rule' and 'support' type, as well as of integration by the operator and activity. Moreover, integration mediates the relation between these variables. The results suggest to take into account organizational culture and to introduce different implementation modalities to improve the safety climate.

  10. Phenological synchrony and seasonality of understory Rubiaceae in the Atlantic Forest, Bahia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heitor Scarpati Liuth

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In tropical forests with low seasonality, climatic variables generally exert a weak influence on the phenology of species. The seasonality of phenophases in closely related taxa can be controlled by phylogenetic constraints in such environments. In this study, our aim was to describe the phenology of Rubiaceae in the understory of the Atlantic Forest in the southern part of Bahia, Brazil, as well as to evaluate the seasonality and phenological synchrony of this family. For two years, we observed 90 individuals belonging to 13 species, in an area of 0.2 ha. Leaf flushing and leaf fall did not demonstrate any seasonality, were continuous for most species and correlated with few of the climatic variables. Flowering was seasonal and correlated positively with all climatic variables. Species exhibited seasonality for this phenophase with high flowering overlap among species of Psychotria, indicating an aggregated pattern for this genus. Fruiting was also seasonal and correlated with all the climatic variables, unripe fruit development peaking at the beginning of the season during which humidity is highest and fruit ripening peaking in the season during which humidity is slightly lower. The vegetative and flowering patterns observed in the study area are commonly seen in other tropical forests. The reproductive seasonality of this family can facilitate the attraction of biotic agents, as postulated in the facilitation hypothesis. Our results demonstrate that climatic variables influenced the phenological patterns observed here, although the high reproductive seasonality and interspecific synchrony, especially in congeneric species, raises the possibility that phylogenetic proximity plays a role in the pattern of the family Rubiaceae.

  11. Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsyganov, A.N.; Aerts, R.; Nijs, I.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Beyens, L.

    2012-01-01

    Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming,

  12. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  13. The effects of season and meteorology on human mortality in tropical climates: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Langner, Marcel; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2014-07-01

    Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are dominant. Atmospheric effects were subject to population-specific factors such as age and socio-economic status and differed between urban and rural areas. The consequences of climate change as well as environmental, epidemiological and social change (e.g., emerging non-communicable diseases, ageing of the population, urbanization) suggest a growing relevance of heat-related excess mortality in tropical regions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

    2011-01-01

    Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants

  15. Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

    2017-02-01

    A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

  16. Climate proofing water and sanitation services and applying integrated water resource management in slums

    OpenAIRE

    Heath, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This thesis assesses how climate change impacts water resources and communities and reviews how the resource can be managed in an integrated manner for small water and sanitation providers. This thesis was based upon a 10 month Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) between Cranfield University and Water and Sanitation for the Urban Poor (WSUP). The aim of the project was to assess the opportunities and vulnerabilities presented by climate change and how Integrated Water Resource ...

  17. Designing Indoor Climate. A Thesis on the Integration of Indoor Climate Analysis in Architectural Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Hartog, J.P.

    2003-12-01

    In contemporary architecture education, indoor climate and building installations suffer from a lack of popularity. Students of architecture, filled with great expectations and awe for the famous designers of the 20th century, find inspiration in examples such as Le Corbusier's Villa Savoy, Lloyd Wright's falling water or the Rietveld's Schroder house. Recognizable as this may be, great aesthetics constitute only a small part of creating architecture. The process of designing and constructing buildings comprises the involvement of a multitude of skills such as creating clear functional layouts, designing solid structures and taking care of healthy indoor climates. Most textbooks and magazines contemporary architecture do not cover the less attractive aspects of the indoor climate such as heating, ventilation and cooling unless these services form an important part of the buildings aesthetic identity. Recent examples regarding the integration of second skin facades and natural ventilation in indoor climate, sometimes fail to convince as a result of the lack of thorough evaluations and detailed information.

  18. Integrated energy and climate program without nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haller, W.

    2007-01-01

    Under the German EU Council presidency, the European Union adopted an ambitious climate protection program in spring this year which has consequences for the entire energy sector. A fair system of burden sharing is currently being sought on the level of the European Union. However, the German federal government does not wait for that agreement to be reached, but has added to the clearcut EU plans in order to achieve more climate protection. At the closed meeting of the federal cabinet in Meseberg on August 23-24, 2007, the key points of an integrated energy and climate program were adopted. The unprecedented set of measures comprises 30 points. In many cases, legal measures are required for implementation, which implies a heavy workload facing the federal government and parliament. A major step forward is seen in the federal government's intention to preserve the international competitiveness of the producing sector and energy-intensive industries also under changed framework conditions. The imperative guiding principle must be that care should take precedence over speed. European or worldwide solutions must be found for all measures, be it energy efficiency or climate protection, and all countries must be involved because, otherwise, specific measures taken by individual states will be ineffective. (orig.)

  19. Seasonal differences in thermal sensation in the outdoor urban environment of Mediterranean climates - the example of Athens, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseliou, Areti; Tsiros, Ioannis X.; Nikolopoulou, Marialena

    2017-07-01

    Outdoor urban areas are very important for cities and microclimate is a critical parameter in the design process, contributing to thermal comfort which is important for urban developments. The research presented in this paper is part of extensive field surveys conducted in Athens aimed at investigating people's thermal sensation in a Mediterranean city. Based on 2313 questionnaires and microclimatic data the current work focuses on the relative frequencies of people's evaluation of the thermal along with the sun and wind sensations between two seasons trying to identify the seasonal differences in thermal sensation. The impact of basic meteorological factors on thermal discomfort with respect to season are also examined, as well as the use of the outdoor environment. Results show that psychological adaptation is an important contributing factor influencing perception of the thermal environment between seasons. In addition, the thermal sensation votes during the cool months show that individuals are satisfied to a great extend with the thermal environment whereas the combination of high air temperature, strong solar radiation and weak wind lead to thermal discomfort during summertime. As far as the appropriate urban design in the Mediterranean climate is concerned, priority should be given to the warm months of the year.

  20. An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Pablo A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Clark, Elizabeth; Rothwell, Eric; Clark, Martyn P.; Nijssen, Bart; Brekke, Levi D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.

    2017-07-01

    For much of the last century, forecasting centers around the world have offered seasonal streamflow predictions to support water management. Recent work suggests that the two major avenues to advance seasonal predictability are improvements in the estimation of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and the incorporation of climate information. This study investigates the marginal benefits of a variety of methods using IHCs and/or climate information, focusing on seasonal water supply forecasts (WSFs) in five case study watersheds located in the US Pacific Northwest region. We specify two benchmark methods that mimic standard operational approaches - statistical regression against IHCs and model-based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) - and then systematically intercompare WSFs across a range of lead times. Additional methods include (i) statistical techniques using climate information either from standard indices or from climate reanalysis variables and (ii) several hybrid/hierarchical approaches harnessing both land surface and climate predictability. In basins where atmospheric teleconnection signals are strong, and when watershed predictability is low, climate information alone provides considerable improvements. For those basins showing weak teleconnections, custom predictors from reanalysis fields were more effective in forecast skill than standard climate indices. ESP predictions tended to have high correlation skill but greater bias compared to other methods, and climate predictors failed to substantially improve these deficiencies within a trace weighting framework. Lower complexity techniques were competitive with more complex methods, and the hierarchical expert regression approach introduced here (hierarchical ensemble streamflow prediction - HESP) provided a robust alternative for skillful and reliable water supply forecasts at all initialization times. Three key findings from this effort are (1) objective approaches supporting methodologically

  1. Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

    2016-01-01

    Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

  2. Snow Precipitation and Snow Cover Climatic Variability for the Period 1971–2009 in the Southwestern Italian Alps: The 2008–2009 Snow Season Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Fratianni

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Snow cover greatly influences the climate in the Alpine region and is one of the most relevant parameters for the climate change analysis. Nevertheless, snow precipitation variability is a relatively underexplored field of research because of the lack of long-term, continuous and homogeneous time series. After a historical research aiming to recover continuous records, three high quality time series of snow precipitation and snow depth recorded in the southwestern Italian Alps were analyzed. The comparison between the climatological indices over the 30 years reference period 1971–2000 and the decade 2000–2009 outlined a general decrease in the amount of snow precipitation, and a shift in the seasonal distribution of the snow precipitation in the most recent period. In the analysis of the last decade snow seasons characteristics, the attention was focused on the heavy snowfalls that occurred in Piedmont during the 2008–2009 snow season: MODerate resolution Imager Spectroradiometer (MODIS snow cover products were used to evaluate snow cover extension at different times during the snow season, and the results were set in relation to the temperatures.

  3. Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-04-01

    Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

  4. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  5. Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scallion, M.

    2017-12-01

    Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to

  6. Phenological cues intrinsic in indigenous knowledge systems for forecasting seasonal climate in the Delta State of Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitchett, Jennifer M.; Ebhuoma, Eromose

    2017-12-01

    Shifts in the timing of phenological events in plants and animals are cited as one of the most robust bioindicators of climate change. Much effort has thus been placed on the collection of phenological datasets, the quantification of the rates of phenological shifts and the association of these shifts with recorded meteorological data. These outputs are of value both in tracking the severity of climate change and in facilitating more robust management approaches in forestry and agriculture to changing climatic conditions. However, such an approach requires meteorological and phenological records spanning multiple decades. For communities in the Delta State of Nigeria, small-scale farming communities do not have access to meteorological records, and the dissemination of government issued daily to seasonal forecasts has only taken place in recent years. Their ability to survive inter-annual to inter-decadal climatic variability and longer-term climatic change has thus relied on well-entrenched indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). An analysis of the environmental cues that are used to infer the timing and amount of rainfall by farmers from three communities in the Delta State reveals a reliance on phenological events, including the croaking of frogs, the appearance of red millipedes and the emergence of fresh rubber tree and cassava leaves. These represent the first recorded awareness of phenology within the Delta State of Nigeria, and a potentially valuable source of phenological data. However, the reliance of these indicators is of concern given the rapid phenological shifts occurring in response to climate change.

  7. Phenology of seed and leaves rain in response to periodic climatic variability in a seasonal wet tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matteo, D.; Wright, S. J.; Davies, S. J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Wolfe, B.; Detto, M.

    2016-12-01

    Phenology, by controlling the rhythms of plants, plays a fundamental role in regulating access to resources, ecosystem processes, competition among species, interactions with consumers and feedbacks to the climate. In high biodiverse tropical forests, where phenology of flowering and leafing are complex, an adequate representation of phenology must take into account a given set of climatic, edaphic and biotic factors. Climatic factors are particularly important because plants may use them as cues for timing different phenological phases and be influenced by their intensity. Climatic variability can be periodic, if events occur with regular frequency, or aperiodic. One prominent periodic large-scale pattern that causes unusual weather is ENSO event. In general, Central America tends to be dry and warm during a mature phase of an ENSO event, which usually peaks between October and January with a frequency of 2-3 events per decade. Because in many tropical areas the effect of ENSO is highly prominent, it is plausible that plants have adapted their growth and reproduction mechanisms to synchronize ENSO phases, in a similar way that plants do during the seasonal cycle. We used a long dataset (30+ years) of fruits and leaves rains of tropical trees and lianas to determine ecosystem response and species specific response of these phenological events to local climate variability corresponding to the modes of ENSO. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that phenological responses to ENSO are similar to response to seasonal cycles, i.e., higher litterfall before a warm-dry phase and higher fruiting after such phase, with strong correlation between seeds and leaves. At sub-community level, we evaluated whether evergreen and deciduous, biotic and abiotic dispersers and free and climbing life forms, have the same response to ENSO in terms of leaves and seeds rain. At species level we tested the hypothesis that species with low photosynthetic capacity leaves are more responsive

  8. Climate Prediction Center - Site Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Means Bulletins Annual Winter Stratospheric Ozone Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (Most Recent) Climate (Hazards Outlook) Climate Assessment: Dec. 1999-Feb. 2000 (Seasonal) Climate Assessment: Mar-May 2000

  9. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  10. Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Y.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to

  11. Plant Responses to Climate Change: The Case Study of Betulaceae and Poaceae Pollen Seasons (Northern Italy, Vignola, Emilia-Romagna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Mercuri

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Aerobiological data have especially demonstrated that there is correlation between climate warming and the pollination season of plants. This paper focuses on airborne pollen monitoring of Betulaceae and Poaceae, two of the main plant groups with anemophilous pollen and allergenic proprieties in Northern Italy. The aim is to investigate plant responses to temperature variations by considering long-term pollen series. The 15-year aerobiological analysis is reported from the monitoring station of Vignola (located near Modena, in the Emilia-Romagna region that had operated in the years 1990–2004 with a Hirst spore trap. The Yearly Pollen Index calculated for these two botanical families has shown contrasting trends in pollen production and release. These trends were well identifiable but fairly variable, depending on both meteorological variables and anthropogenic causes. Based on recent reference literature, we considered that some oscillations in pollen concentration could have been a main effect of temperature variability reflecting global warming. The duration of pollen seasons of Betulaceae and Poaceae, depending on the different species included in each family, has not unequivocally been determined. Phenological responses were particularly evident in Alnus and especially in Corylus as a general moving up of the end of pollination. The study shows that these trees can be affected by global warming more than other, more tolerant, plants. The research can be a contribution to the understanding of phenological plant responses to climate change and suggests that alder and hazelnut trees have to be taken into high consideration as sensible markers of plant responses to climate change.

  12. Plant Responses to Climate Change: The Case Study of Betulaceae and Poaceae Pollen Seasons (Northern Italy, Vignola, Emilia-Romagna)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercuri, Anna Maria; Torri, Paola; Fornaciari, Rita; Florenzano, Assunta

    2016-01-01

    Aerobiological data have especially demonstrated that there is correlation between climate warming and the pollination season of plants. This paper focuses on airborne pollen monitoring of Betulaceae and Poaceae, two of the main plant groups with anemophilous pollen and allergenic proprieties in Northern Italy. The aim is to investigate plant responses to temperature variations by considering long-term pollen series. The 15-year aerobiological analysis is reported from the monitoring station of Vignola (located near Modena, in the Emilia-Romagna region) that had operated in the years 1990–2004 with a Hirst spore trap. The Yearly Pollen Index calculated for these two botanical families has shown contrasting trends in pollen production and release. These trends were well identifiable but fairly variable, depending on both meteorological variables and anthropogenic causes. Based on recent reference literature, we considered that some oscillations in pollen concentration could have been a main effect of temperature variability reflecting global warming. The duration of pollen seasons of Betulaceae and Poaceae, depending on the different species included in each family, has not unequivocally been determined. Phenological responses were particularly evident in Alnus and especially in Corylus as a general moving up of the end of pollination. The study shows that these trees can be affected by global warming more than other, more tolerant, plants. The research can be a contribution to the understanding of phenological plant responses to climate change and suggests that alder and hazelnut trees have to be taken into high consideration as sensible markers of plant responses to climate change. PMID:27929423

  13. Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

    2008-01-01

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

  14. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  15. Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-SA experiments in simulating seasonal mean temperature over the Himalayan region for the present climate: Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nengker, T.; Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    The ability of an ensemble of five regional climate models (hereafter RCMs) under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) in simulating the key features of present day near surface mean air temperature (Tmean) climatology (1970-2005) over the Himalayan region is studied. The purpose of this paper is to understand the consistency in the performance of models across the ensemble, space and seasons. For this a number of statistical measures like trend, correlation, variance, probability distribution function etc. are applied to evaluate the performance of models against observation and simultaneously the underlying uncertainties between them for four different seasons. The most evident finding from the study is the presence of a large cold bias (-6 to -8 °C) which is systematically seen across all the models and across space and time over the Himalayan region. However, these RCMs with its fine resolution perform extremely well in capturing the spatial distribution of the temperature features as indicated by a consistently high spatial correlation (greater than 0.9) with the observation in all seasons. In spite of underestimation in simulated temperature and general intensification of cold bias with increasing elevation the models show a greater rate of warming than the observation throughout entire altitudinal stretch of study region. During winter, the simulated rate of warming gets even higher at high altitudes. Moreover, a seasonal response of model performance and its spatial variability to elevation is found.

  16. Alterations of white matter integrity related to the season of birth in schizophrenia: a DTI study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphanie Giezendanner

    Full Text Available In schizophrenia there is a consistent epidemiological finding of a birth excess in winter and spring. Season of birth is thought to act as a proxy indicator for harmful environmental factors during foetal maturation. There is evidence that prenatal exposure to harmful environmental factors may trigger pathologic processes in the neurodevelopment, which subsequently increase the risk of schizophrenia. Since brain white matter alterations have repeatedly been found in schizophrenia, the objective of this study was to investigate whether white matter integrity was related to the season of birth in patients with schizophrenia. Thirty-four patients with schizophrenia and 33 healthy controls underwent diffusion tensor imaging. Differences in the fractional anisotropy maps of schizophrenia patients and healthy controls born in different seasons were analysed with tract-based spatial statistics. A significant main effect of season of birth and an interaction of group and season of birth showed that patients born in summer had significantly lower fractional anisotropy in widespread white matter regions than those born in the remainder of the year. Additionally, later age of schizophrenia onset was found in patients born in winter months. The current findings indicate a relationship of season of birth and white matter alterations in schizophrenia and consequently support the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of early pathological mechanisms in schizophrenia.

  17. Late Noachian Icy Highlands climate model: Exploring the possibility of transient melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity through peak annual and seasonal temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Ashley M.; Head, James W.; Wordsworth, Robin D.

    2018-01-01

    The nature of the Late Noachian climate of Mars remains one of the outstanding questions in the study of the evolution of martian geology and climate. Despite abundant evidence for flowing water (valley networks and open/closed basin lakes), climate models have had difficulties reproducing mean annual surface temperatures (MAT) > 273 K in order to generate the ;warm and wet; climate conditions presumed to be necessary to explain the observed fluvial and lacustrine features. Here, we consider a ;cold and icy; climate scenario, characterized by MAT ∼225 K and snow and ice distributed in the southern highlands, and ask: Does the formation of the fluvial and lacustrine features require continuous ;warm and wet; conditions, or could seasonal temperature variation in a ;cold and icy; climate produce sufficient summertime ice melting and surface runoff to account for the observed features? To address this question, we employ the 3D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique global climate model (LMD GCM) for early Mars and (1) analyze peak annual temperature (PAT) maps to determine where on Mars temperatures exceed freezing in the summer season, (2) produce temperature time series at three valley network systems and compare the duration of the time during which temperatures exceed freezing with seasonal temperature variations in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) where similar fluvial and lacustrine features are observed, and (3) perform a positive-degree-day analysis to determine the annual volume of meltwater produced through this mechanism, estimate the necessary duration that this process must repeat to produce sufficient meltwater for valley network formation, and estimate whether runoff rates predicted by this mechanism are comparable to those required to form the observed geomorphology of the valley networks. When considering an ambient CO2 atmosphere, characterized by MAT ∼225 K, we find that: (1) PAT can exceed the melting point of water (>273 K) in

  18. Seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vellinga, Michael; Scaife, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This license does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

  19. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braconnot, P.; Zheng, W. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Luan, Y. [unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Brewer, Simon [University of Wyoming, Department of Botany, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2012-03-15

    We use a state-of-the-art 3-dimensional coupled model to investigate the relative impact of long term variations in the Holocene insolation forcing and of a freshwater release in the North Atlantic. We show that insolation has a greater effect on seasonality and La Nina events and is the major driver of sea surface temperature changes. In contrast, the variations in precipitation reflect changes in El Nino events. The impact of ice-sheet melting may have offset the impact of insolation on El Nino Southern Oscillation variability at the beginning of the Holocene. These simulations provide a coherent framework to refine the interpretation of proxy data and show that changes in seasonality may bias the projection of relationships established between proxy indicators and climate variations in the east Pacific from present day records. (orig.)

  20. Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

  1. Extended season for northern butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Bengt

    2014-07-01

    Butterflies are like all insects in that they are temperature sensitive and a changing climate with higher temperatures might effect their phenology. Several studies have found support for earlier flight dates among the investigated species. A comparative study with data from a citizen science project, including 66 species of butterflies in Sweden, was undertaken, and the result confirms that most butterfly species now fly earlier during the season. This is especially evident for butterflies overwintering as adults or as pupae. However, the advancement in phenology is correlated with flight date, and some late season species show no advancement or have even postponed their flight dates and are now flying later in the season. The results also showed that latitude had a strong effect on the adult flight date, and most of the investigated species showed significantly later flights towards the north. Only some late flying species showed an opposite trend, flying earlier in the north. A majority of the investigated species in this study showed a general response to temperature and advanced their flight dates with warmer temperatures (on average they advanced their flight dates by 3.8 days/°C), although not all species showed this response. In essence, a climate with earlier springs and longer growing seasons seems not to change the appearance patterns in a one-way direction. We now see butterflies on the wings both earlier and later in the season and some consequences of these patterns are discussed. So far, studies have concentrated mostly on early season butterfly-plant interactions but also late season studies are needed for a better understanding of long-term population consequences.

  2. Integration in urban climate adaptation: Lessons from Rotterdam on integration between scientific disciplines and integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, A.M.E.; Bosch, P.R.; Buijs, S.; Jacobs, C.M.J.; Moors, E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Based on the experience acquired in the Bergpolder Zuid district in the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands, this paper presents lessons learned so far on science-policy interactions supporting the adaptation to climate change in an urban district. Two types of integration issues were considered: (1)

  3. Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

    2017-06-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

  4. The Year Without a Ski Season: An Analysis of the Winter of 2015 for Three Ski Resorts in Western Canada Using Historical and Simulation Model Forecasted Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Goode, J. D.; Pedersen, S.

    2015-12-01

    The winter of 2015 will go down as "the year without a ski season" for many ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada and the USA. During this winter season, a large area of the eastern North Pacific Ocean had extremely high sea surface temperatures. These high sea surface temperatures influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, in alpine environments precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow instead fell as rain. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winter of 2015 in greater detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Mount Washington, Cypress Mountain and Hemlock Valley. For these resorts, historical (1901 to 2013) and IPCC AR5 climate model forecasted climate data (RCP8.5 for 2025, 2055, and 2085) was generated for the variable winter degree days climate database ClimateBC. A value for winter degree days climate data at nearby meteorological stations for comparative analysis. For all three resorts, the winter of 2015 proved to be warmer than any individual year in the period 1901 to 2013. Interpolations involving the multi-model ensemble forecast means suggest that the climate associated with winter of 2015 will become the average normal for these resorts in only 35 to 45 years under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

  5. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: Seasonal ENSO Impacts on

    Science.gov (United States)

    page National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center , state and local government Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > U.S. Climate and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland

  6. Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Dulce; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Naughton, Filipa; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Grimalt, Joan O.; Martrat, Belen; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Trigo, Ricardo; Hodell, David; Abrantes, Fátima; Desprat, Stéphanie

    2017-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the ;super interglacial; MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

  7. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  8. Satellite view of seasonal greenness trends and controls in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, Sangeeta; Jia, Gensuo; Zhang, Anzhi

    2018-03-01

    South Asia (SA) has been considered one of the most remarkable regions for changing vegetation greenness, accompanying its major expansion of agricultural activities, especially irrigated farming. The influence of the monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness is poorly understood in this area. Herein, we used the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate various spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation activity during summer and winter monsoon (SM and WM) seasons and among irrigated croplands (IC), rainfed croplands (RC), and natural vegetation (NV) areas during 1982–2013. Seasonal NDVI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and land use and cover changes (LUCC) have also been investigated. This study demonstrates that the seasonal dynamics of vegetation could improve the detailed understanding of vegetation productivity over the region. We found distinct greenness trends between two monsoon seasons and among the major land use/cover classes. Winter monsoons contributed greater variability to the overall vegetation dynamics of SA. Major greening occurred due to the increased productivity over irrigated croplands during the winter monsoon season; meanwhile, browning trends were prominent over NV areas during the same season. Maximum temperatures had been increasing tremendously during the WM season; however, the precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LUCC revealed coupled effects on the long term NDVI trends in NV areas, especially in the hilly regions, whereas anthropogenic activities (agricultural advancements) played a pivotal role in the rest of the area. Until now, advanced cultivation techniques have proven to be beneficial for the region in terms of the productivity of croplands. However, the crop productivity is at risk under climate change.

  9. Effect of elevated [CO2] and nutrient management on wet and dry season rice production in subtropical India

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sushree Sagarika Satapathy; Dillip Kumar Swain; Surendranath Pasupalak; Pratap Bhanu Singh Bhadoria

    2015-01-01

    The present experiment was conducted to evaluate the effect of elevated [CO2] with varying nutrient management on rice–rice production system. The experiment was conducted in the open field and inside open-top chambers(OTCs) of ambient [CO2](≈ 390 μmol L-1) and elevated [CO2] environment(25% above ambient) during wet and dry seasons in 2011–2013at Kharagpur, India. The nutrient management included recommended doses of N, P, and K as chemical fertilizer(CF), integration of chemical and organic sources, and application of increased(25% higher) doses of CF. The higher [CO2] level in the OTC increased aboveground biomass but marginally decreased filled grains per panicle and grain yield of rice, compared to the ambient environment. However, crop root biomass was increased significantly under elevated [CO2]. With respect to nutrient management, increasing the dose of CF increased grain yield significantly in both seasons. At the recommended dose of nutrients, integrated nutrient management was comparable to CF in the wet season, but significantly inferior in the dry season, in its effect on growth and yield of rice. The [CO2] elevation in OTC led to a marginal increase in organic C and available P content of soil, but a decrease in available N content. It was concluded that increased doses of nutrients via integration of chemical and organic sources in the wet season and chemical sources alone in the dry season will minimize the adverse effect of future climate on rice production in subtropical India.

  10. Effect of elevated [CO2] and nutrient management on wet and dry season rice production in subtropical India

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sushree Sagarika Satapathy; Dillip Kumar Swain; Surendranath Pasupalak; Pratap Bhanu Singh Bhadoria

    2015-01-01

    The present experiment was conducted to evaluate the effect of elevated [CO2] with varying nutrient management on rice–rice production system. The experiment was conducted in the open field and inside open-top chambers (OTCs) of ambient [CO2] (≈390μmol L−1) and elevated [CO2] environment (25%above ambient) during wet and dry seasons in 2011–2013 at Kharagpur, India. The nutrient management included recommended doses of N, P, and K as chemical fertilizer (CF), integration of chemical and organic sources, and application of increased (25%higher) doses of CF. The higher [CO2] level in the OTC increased aboveground biomass but marginally decreased filled grains per panicle and grain yield of rice, compared to the ambient environment. However, crop root biomass was increased significantly under elevated [CO2]. With respect to nutrient management, increasing the dose of CF increased grain yield significantly in both seasons. At the recommended dose of nutrients, integrated nutrient management was comparable to CF in the wet season, but significantly inferior in the dry season, in its effect on growth and yield of rice. The [CO2] elevation in OTC led to a marginal increase in organic C and available P content of soil, but a decrease in available N content. It was concluded that increased doses of nutrients via integration of chemical and organic sources in the wet season and chemical sources alone in the dry season will minimize the adverse effect of future climate on rice production in subtropical India.

  11. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  12. Added value of dynamical downscaling of winter seasonal forecasts over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Sushama, Laxmi

    2017-04-01

    Skillful seasonal forecasts have enormous potential benefits for socio-economic sectors that are sensitive to weather and climate conditions, as the early warning routines could reduce the vulnerability of such sectors. In this study, individual ensemble members of the ECMWF global ensemble seasonal forecasts are dynamically downscaled to produce ensemble of regional seasonal forecasts over North America using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). CRCM5 forecasts are initialized on November 1st of each year and are integrated for four months for the 1991-2001 period at 0.22 degree resolution to produce a one-month lead-time forecast. The initial conditions for atmospheric variables are obtained from ERA-Interim reanalysis, whereas the initial conditions for land surface are obtained from a separate ERA-interim driven CRCM5 simulation with spectral nudging applied to the interior domain. The global and regional ensemble forecasts were then verified to investigate the skill and economic benefits of dynamical downscaling. Results indicate that both the global and regional climate models produce skillful precipitation forecast over the southern Great Plains and eastern coasts of the U.S and skillful temperature forecasts over the northern U.S. and most of Canada. In comparison to ECMWF forecasts, CRCM5 forecasts improved the temperature forecast skill over most part of the domain, but the improvements for precipitation is limited to regions with complex topography, where it improves the frequency of intense daily precipitation. CRCM5 forecast also yields a better economic value compared to ECMWF precipitation forecasts, for users whose cost to loss ratio is smaller than 0.5.

  13. An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Mendoza

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available For much of the last century, forecasting centers around the world have offered seasonal streamflow predictions to support water management. Recent work suggests that the two major avenues to advance seasonal predictability are improvements in the estimation of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs and the incorporation of climate information. This study investigates the marginal benefits of a variety of methods using IHCs and/or climate information, focusing on seasonal water supply forecasts (WSFs in five case study watersheds located in the US Pacific Northwest region. We specify two benchmark methods that mimic standard operational approaches – statistical regression against IHCs and model-based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP – and then systematically intercompare WSFs across a range of lead times. Additional methods include (i statistical techniques using climate information either from standard indices or from climate reanalysis variables and (ii several hybrid/hierarchical approaches harnessing both land surface and climate predictability. In basins where atmospheric teleconnection signals are strong, and when watershed predictability is low, climate information alone provides considerable improvements. For those basins showing weak teleconnections, custom predictors from reanalysis fields were more effective in forecast skill than standard climate indices. ESP predictions tended to have high correlation skill but greater bias compared to other methods, and climate predictors failed to substantially improve these deficiencies within a trace weighting framework. Lower complexity techniques were competitive with more complex methods, and the hierarchical expert regression approach introduced here (hierarchical ensemble streamflow prediction – HESP provided a robust alternative for skillful and reliable water supply forecasts at all initialization times. Three key findings from this effort are (1 objective approaches supporting

  14. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

  15. Leaf development and demography explain photosynthetic seasonality in Amazon evergreen forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jin; Albert, Lauren; Lopes, Aline; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Hayek, Matthew; Wiedemann, Kenia T.; Guan, Kaiyu; Stark, Scott C.; Christoffersen, Bradley; Prohaska, Neill; Tavares, Julia V.; Marostica, Suelen; Kobayashi, Hideki; Ferreira, Maurocio L.; Campos, Kleber Silva; da Silva, Rodrigo; Brando, Paulo M.; Dye, Dennis G.; Huxman, Travis E.; Huete, Alfredo; Nelson, Bruce; Saleska, Scott

    2016-01-01

    In evergreen tropical forests, the extent, magnitude, and controls on photosynthetic seasonality are poorly resolved and inadequately represented in Earth system models. Combining camera observations with ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at forests across rainfall gradients in Amazônia, we show that aggregate canopy phenology, not seasonality of climate drivers, is the primary cause of photosynthetic seasonality in these forests. Specifically, synchronization of new leaf growth with dry season litterfall shifts canopy composition toward younger, more light-use efficient leaves, explaining large seasonal increases (~27%) in ecosystem photosynthesis. Coordinated leaf development and demography thus reconcile seemingly disparate observations at different scales and indicate that accounting for leaf-level phenology is critical for accurately simulating ecosystem-scale responses to climate change.

  16. Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

    2008-01-01

    This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

  17. The Arctic-Subarctic Sea Ice System is Entering a Seasonal Regime: Implications for Future Arctic Amplication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, T. W. N.; Martin, T.

    2017-12-01

    The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.

  18. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  19. How Philadelphia is Integrating Climate Science and Policy: Changing Capital Planning Processes and Developing Flood-Depth Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Choate, A.; Wong, A.; Asam, S.; Schultz, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    Policy makers can implement more effective climate change adaptation programs if they are provided with two tools: accessible information on the impacts that they need to prepare for, and clear guidance on how to integrate climate change considerations into their work. This presentation will highlight recent and ongoing efforts at the City of Philadelphia to integrate climate science into their decision-making. These efforts include developing a climate change information visualization tool, climate change risk assessments across the city, and processes to integrate climate change into routine planning and budgeting practices. The goal of these efforts is to make climate change science highly targeted to decision maker needs, non-political, easily accessible, and actionable. While sea level rise inundation maps have been available to communities for years, the maps do not effectively communicate how the design of a building or a piece of infrastructure would need to be modified to protect it. The Philadelphia Flood Risk Viewer is an interactive planning tool that allows Philadelphia to identify projected depths of flooding for any location within the City, for a variety of sea level rise and storm surge scenarios. Users can also determine whether a location is located in a FEMA floodplain. By having access to information on the projected depth of flooding at a given location, the City can determine what flood protection measures may be effective, or even inform the long-term viability of developing a particular area. With an understanding of climate vulnerabilities, cities have the opportunity to make smart, climate-resilient investments with their capital budgets that will yield multiple benefits for years to come. Few, however, have established protocols for doing so. Philadelphia, with support from ICF, developed a guidance document that identifies recommendations for integrating climate change considerations throughout the Capital Program and capital budgeting

  20. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  1. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  2. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  4. Climate change in the Cairns and Great Barrier Reef region. Scope and Focus for an Integrated Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crimp, S.; Balston, J.; Ash, A.; Anderson-Berry, L.; Done, T.; Greiner, R.; Hilbert, D.; Howden, M.; Jones, R.; Stokes, C.; Stoeckl, N.; Sutherst, B.; Whetton, P.

    2004-07-01

    This study was undertaken to determine the scope and focus for an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the Cairns Great Barrier Reef (CGBR) region. To achieve this, the authors employed both technical expertise and regional stakeholder input. This document describes the study objectives and the process used to meet these objectives, and provides an overview of the CGBR region, the views of technical experts on potential climate change impacts, stakeholder prioritisation of impacts and adaptation options, a list of perceived knowledge gaps, and a recommended structure for a future integrated assessment in the region. The aim of the study was to determine the scope and focus for an integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the CGBR region. The key objectives of the study were: Define and describe the study region; Develop a process for the study, which includes key stakeholders in the region; Prepare a comprehensive list of the regional stakeholders; Brief regional stakeholders about potential climate changes in the region; Gain insight from stakeholders into the climatic dependencies of key sectors and issues in the region (agriculture, fishing, forestry, tourism, natural ecosystems, infrastructure, pests, diseases and human health); Identify possible adaptation and/or amelioration strategies for each sector; Identify synergies with other sectors, and possible barriers to undertaking climate change adaptation strategies; Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities and current activities that may need alteration or enhancement; Define the scope of a possible integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the region

  5. Simulation of climate-tick-host-landscape interactions: Effects of shifts in the seasonality of host population fluctuations on tick densities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, W E; Teel, P D; Hamer, S A

    2015-12-01

    Tick vector systems are comprised of complex climate-tick-host-landscape interactions that are difficult to identify and estimate from empirical observations alone. We developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based model, parameterized to represent ecological conditions typical of the south-central United States, to examine effects of shifts in the seasonal occurrence of fluctuations of host densities on tick densities. Simulated shifts in the seasonal occurrence of periods of high and low host densities affected both the magnitude of unfed tick densities and the seasonality of tick development. When shifting the seasonal densities of all size classes of hosts (small, medium, and large) synchronously, densities of nymphs were affected more by smaller shifts away from the baseline host seasonality than were densities of larval and adult life stages. When shifting the seasonal densities of only a single size-class of hosts while holding other size classes at their baseline levels, densities of larval, nymph, and adult life stages responded differently. Shifting seasonal densities of any single host-class earlier resulted in a greater increase in adult tick density than when seasonal densities of all host classes were shifted earlier simultaneously. The mean densities of tick life stages associated with shifts in host densities resulted from system-level interactions of host availability with tick phenology. For example, shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks earlier resulted in an approximately 30% increase in the relative degree of temporal co-occurrence of actively host-seeking ticks and hosts compared to baseline, whereas shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks later resulted in an approximately 70% decrease compared to baseline. Differences among scenarios in the overall presence of active host-seeking ticks in the system were due primarily to the degree of co-occurrence of periods of high densities of unfed ticks and periods of high densities

  6. Introducing integrated food-energy systems that work for people and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdanski, Anne [Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy)

    2011-07-01

    Bioenergy can be part of the implementation of climate-smart agricultural development. However, it is crucial to develop bioenergy operations in ways that mitigate risks and harness benefits. Integrated Food-Energy Systems (IFES) can play an important role in doing so. (orig.)

  7. ICLEA - The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Blume, Theresa; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Since 2012, the partner of the virtual institute ICLEA from Germany and Poland view on past changes as natural experiments as a guidebook for better anticipation of future changes and their impacts. Since the natural evolution became increasingly superimposed by human impacts since the Neolithic we include an in-depth discussion of impacts of climate and environment change on societies and vice versa. Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (I) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (II) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. Five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects: WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 are focused on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last

  8. Seasonal climate signals from multiple tree ring metrics: A case study of Pinus ponderosa in the upper Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.

    2016-04-01

    Projected changes in the seasonality of hydroclimatic regimes are likely to have important implications for water resources and terrestrial ecosystems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The tree ring record, which has frequently been used to position recent changes in a longer-term context, typically relies on signals embedded in the total ring width of tree rings. Additional climatic inferences at a subannual temporal scale can be made using alternative tree ring metrics such as earlywood and latewood widths and the density of tree ring latewood. Here we examine seasonal precipitation and temperature signals embedded in total ring width, earlywood width, adjusted latewood width, and blue intensity chronologies from a network of six Pinus ponderosa sites in and surrounding the upper Columbia River Basin of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also evaluate the potential for combining multiple tree ring metrics together in reconstructions of past cool- and warm-season precipitation. The common signal among all metrics and sites is related to warm-season precipitation. Earlywood and latewood widths differ primarily in their sensitivity to conditions in the year prior to growth. Total and earlywood widths from the lowest elevation sites also reflect cool-season moisture. Effective correlation analyses and composite-plus-scale tests suggest that combining multiple tree ring metrics together may improve reconstructions of warm-season precipitation. For cool-season precipitation, total ring width alone explains more variance than any other individual metric or combination of metrics. The composite-plus-scale tests show that variance-scaled precipitation reconstructions in the upper Columbia River Basin may be asymmetric in their ability to capture extreme events.

  9. Atmospheric Rivers, Climate Change, and the Howard Hanson Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Shaffer, K.; Brettman, K.

    2017-12-01

    All wintertime extreme precipitation and major flooding events in Western Washington are associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow bands of elevated integrated water vapor transport (IVT) stretching from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the Pacific Northwest coast. Several studies over the last decade have suggested that climate change could impact the intensity, frequency, timing, and structure of Pacific Northwest extreme precipitation. The Howard Hanson Dam is situated on the Green River in the central Cascade Mountains in Western Washington and is operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in Seattle. The reservoir behind the dam has two functions: It is the main water supply for the city of Tacoma and is filled during the summer months, and it is empty during winter months when it is used for flood risk management during AR events, protecting billions of dollars of infrastructure downstream. The reservoir is maintained by the Cascade Mountains' abundant winter snowpack and precipitation. Since the reservoir behind Howard Hanson Dam must be empty before the flood season starts and is reliant on snowpack and precipitation to fill in late spring, impacts due to climate change are important for how the USACE operates and manages flood risk and water supply in the future. This work describes changes in the structure, climatology, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the west coast of North America by examining the projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in AR frequency and seasonality between historical (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the West Coast, particularly along the southern part of the U.S. west coast, where some changes in the most extreme events are statistically

  10. Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

    The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...

  11. U.S. Annual/Seasonal Climate Normals (1981-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Annual Climate Normals for 1981 to 2010 are 30-year averages of meteorological parameters that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate...

  12. Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R.

    2012-04-01

    Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

  13. Effects of climate change on Forest Service strategic goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2010-01-01

    Climate change affects forests and grasslands in many ways. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect plant productivity as well as some species' habitat. Changes in key climate variables affect the length of the fire season and the seasonality of National Forest hydrological regimes. Also, invasive species tend to adapt to climate change more easily and...

  14. The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, V.; Simon, A.; Bhardwaj, A.; Ghosh, T.; Ross, R.

    2016-06-01

    This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.

  16. Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Funk, C.; Bosilovich, M. G.

    2014-01-01

    SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will

  17. Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

    2012-06-01

    Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

  18. Phylogeography, historical demography and distribution modelling of freshwater fishes inhabiting seasonally fluctuating Mediterranean river systems: a case study using the Iberian cyprinid Squalius valentinus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Perea

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean freshwater fish fauna has evolved under constraints imposed by the seasonal weather/hydrological patterns that define the Mediterranean climate. These conditions have influenced the genetic and demographic structure of aquatic communities since their origins in the Mid-Pliocene. Freshwater species in Mediterranean-type climates will likely constitute genetically well-differentiated populations as a consequence of fragmentation resulting from drought/flood cycles, to varying extents depending on basin size. We developed an integrative framework to study spatial patterns in genetic diversity, demographic trends, distribution modelling, and landscape genetics to evaluate the evolutionary response of Mediterranean-type freshwater fish to seasonal fluctuations in weather. To test this evolutionary response, the model species used was Squalius valentinus, an endemic cyprinid of the Spanish Levantine area, where seasonal weather fluctuations are extreme, although our findings may be extrapolated to other Mediterranean-type species. Our results underscore the significant role of the Mediterranean climate, along with Pleistocene glaciations, in diversification of S. valentinus. We found higher nuclear diversity in larger drainage basins, but higher mitochondrial diversity correlated to habitat suitability rather than basin size. We also found strong correlation between genetic structure and climatic factors associated with Mediterranean seasonality. Demographic and migration analyses suggested population expansion during glacial periods that also contributed to the current genetic structure of S. valentinus populations. The inferred species distribution models support the significant contribution of precipitation and isothermality for S. valentinus habitat suitability. We highlight the importance of stable habitat conditions, fostered by typical karstic springs found on the Mediterranean littoral coasts, for the preservation of

  19. Climate Change Adaptation Tools at the Community Level: An Integrated Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvis Modikela Nkoana

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The negative impacts of climate change are experienced at the global, regional and local levels. However, rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa face additional socio-political, cultural and economic challenges in addition to climate change. Decision support tools have been developed and applied to assist rural communities to cope with and adapt to climate change. However, poorly planned participatory processes and the lack of context-specific approaches in these tools are obstacles when aiming at strengthening the resilience of these rural communities. This paper uses an integrated literature review to identify best practices for involving rural communities in climate change adaptation efforts through the application of context-specific and culturally-sensitive climate change adaptation tools. These best practices include the use of a livelihoods approach to engage communities; the explicit acknowledgement of the local cultural do’s and don’ts; the recognition of local champions appointed from within the local community; the identification and prioritisation of vulnerable stakeholders; and the implementation of a two-way climate change risk communication instead of a one-sided information sharing approach.

  20. Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.

    1993-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)

  1. Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in

  2. A modelling study of the seasonal snowpack energy balance at three sites along the Andes Cordillera. Regional climate and local effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhee, James; Mengual, Sebastian; MacDonell, Shelley

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal snowpack melt constitutes the main water source for large portions of extratropical South America, including central Chile and Western Argentina. The properties and distribution of snow in the Andes are threatened by rapid climate change, characterised by warming and drying. This study provides a first attempt at detailed description of the energy balance of the seasonal snowpack and its variability along a latitudinal gradient, which is also correlated with an elevation and precipitation gradient, in the Andes Cordillera. The Snowpack model was validated at semi-arid, Mediterranean and temperate humid sites, where meteorological and snowpack properties have been observed since year 2013. Site elevations decrease from north to south, whereas precipitation climatology increases with latitude. Results show that turbulent energy exchange becomes relatively more important in periods of low snow accumulation, with sensible heat fluxes having a greater effect in cooling the snowpack at the high-altitude, low latitude site. Likewise, daily melt-freeze cycles are important in maintaining positive cold contents throughout the accumulation season at this site, and contribute to extending the duration of snow cover despite low accumulation and high radiation loads. In contrast, the southernmost, lowest elevation site shows smaller daily temperature amplitude and a much more preponderant radiation component to the energy balance. This modelling exercise highlights the nonlinearities of snow dynamics at different geographical settings in a sparsely monitored mountain area of the world, as well as the need for further understanding in order to evaluate the sensitivity of snow-dominated watersheds to global warming and climate change.

  3. Climate Discovery: Integrating Research With Exhibit, Public Tours, K-12, and Web-based EPO Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S. Q.; Carbone, L.; Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Advisory Committee, S.; Ammann, C.; Lu, G.; Richmond, A.; Maute, A.; Haller, D.; Conery, C.; Bintner, G.

    2005-12-01

    The Climate Discovery Exhibit at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab provides an exciting conceptual outline for the integration of several EPO activities with other well-established NCAR educational resources and programs. The exhibit is organized into four topic areas intended to build understanding among NCAR's 80,000 annual visitors, including 10,000 school children, about Earth system processes and scientific methods contributing to a growing body of knowledge about climate and global change. These topics include: 'Sun-Earth Connections,' 'Climate Now,' 'Climate Past,' and 'Climate Future.' Exhibit text, graphics, film and electronic media, and interactives are developed and updated through collaborations between NCAR's climate research scientists and staff in the Office of Education and Outreach (EO) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). With funding from NCAR, paleoclimatologists have contributed data and ideas for a new exhibit Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Past.' This collection of middle-school level, standards-aligned lessons are intended to help students gain understanding about how scientists use proxy data and direct observations to describe past climates. Two NASA EPO's have funded the development of 'Sun-Earth Connection' lessons, visual media, and tips for scientists and teachers. Integrated with related content and activities from the NASA-funded Windows to the Universe web site, these products have been adapted to form a second unit in the Climate Discovery Teachers' Guide about the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Other lesson plans, previously developed by on-going efforts of EO staff and NSF's previously-funded Project Learn program are providing content for a third Teachers' Guide unit on 'Climate Now' - the dynamic atmospheric and geological processes that regulate Earth's climate. EO has plans to collaborate with NCAR climatologists and computer modelers in the next year to develop

  4. Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperatures equally important for Land Climate in the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-12-01

    Both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture (SM) are important drivers of climate variability over land. In this study we present a comprehensive comparison of SM versus SST impacts on land climate in the warm season. We perform ensemble experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) where we set SM or SSTs to median conditions, respectively, to remove their inter-annual variability, whereby the other component - SST or SM - is still interactively computed. In contrast to earlier experiments performed with prescribed SSTs, our experiments suggest that SM is overall as important as SSTs for land climate, not only in the midlatitudes but also in the tropics and subtropics. Mean temperature and precipitation are reduced by 0.1-0.5 K and 0-0.2 mm, respectively, whereas their variability at different time scales decreases by 10-40% (temperature) and 0-10% (precipitation) when either SM or SSTs are prescribed. Also drought occurrence is affected, with mean changes in the maximum number of cumulative dry days of 0-0.75 days. Both SM and SST-induced changes are strongest for hot temperatures (up to 0.7 K, and 50%), extreme precipitation (up to 0.4 mm, and 20%), and strong droughts (up to 2 days). Local climate changes in response to removed SM variability are controlled - to first order - by the land-atmosphere coupling and the natural SM variability. SST-related changes are partly controlled by the relation of local temperature or precipitation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Moreover removed SM or SST variabilities both induce remote effects by impacting the atmospheric circulation. Our results are similar for the present day and the end of the century. We investigate the inter-dependency between SM and SST and find a sufficient degree of independence for the purpose of this study. The robustness of our findings is shown by comparing the response of CESM to removed SM variability with four other global climate models. In summary, SM and SSTs

  5. Seasonal variation in the phenol content of Eugenia uniflora L. leaves

    OpenAIRE

    Santos, R.M; Oliveira, M.S; Ferri, P.H; Santos, S.C

    2011-01-01

    Hydrolysable tannins, total phenols and flavonoids in Eugenia uniflora leaves were monthly analysed for one year. The results were correlated with climate conditions (rainfall, humidity, cloudiness and mean temperature) through chemometric methods. Principal component analysis revealed high levels of hydrolysable tannins in the rainy season, whereas flavonoids were mainly produced in the dry season. These facts suggest that climatic changes may be one of the factors affecting phenol levels in...

  6. An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Dapeng; Zheng, Yi; Mao, Yixin; Zhang, Aijing; Wu, Bin; Li, Jinguo; Tian, Yong; Wu, Xin

    2018-02-01

    Water resources in coastal areas can be profoundly influenced by both climate change and human activities. These climatic and human impacts are usually intertwined and difficult to isolate. This study developed an integrated model-based approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts and applied this approach to the Luanhe Plain, a typical coastal area in northern China. An integrated surface water-groundwater model was developed for the study area using GSFLOW (coupled groundwater and surface-water flow). Model calibration and validation were performed for background years between 1975 and 2000. The variation in water resources between the 1980s and 1990s was then quantitatively attributed to climate variability, groundwater pumping and changes in upstream inflow. Climate scenarios for future years (2075-2100) were also developed by downscaling the projections in CMIP5. Potential water resource responses to climate change, as well as their uncertainty, were then investigated through integrated modeling. The study results demonstrated the feasibility and value of the integrated modeling-based analysis for water resource management in areas with complex surface water-groundwater interaction. Specific findings for the Luanhe Plain included the following: (1) During the historical period, upstream inflow had the most significant impact on river outflow to the sea, followed by climate variability, whereas groundwater pumping was the least influential. (2) The increase in groundwater pumping had a dominant influence on the decline in groundwater change, followed by climate variability. (3) Synergetic and counteractive effects among different impacting factors, while identified, were not significant, which implied that the interaction among different factors was not very strong in this case. (4) It is highly probable that future climate change will accelerate groundwater depletion in the study area, implying that strict regulations for groundwater

  7. Seasonal variation of ground spiders in a Brazilian Savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Farcic Mineo

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian Savanna Ecoregion (Cerrado is one of the richest biomes in the world, with a characteristic highly seasonal climate a dry season between May and September and a rainy season from October through April. Ground-dwelling spiders from three Cerrado phytophysiognomies, "campo cerrado", "cerrado" and "cerrad��o", were sampled using pitfall traps during two years, totaling 111 species and 3,529 individuals. The abundance of individuals and species richness was higher during the wet season. Fifty-eight species were captured exclusively during that period, whereas only nineteen were restricted to the dry season. Only two species were found in all samples. The number of juveniles was higher than the number of adults in all phytophysiognomies and in all species during both seasons. The highest abundance was registered in October and the lowest in April. Overall sex ratio was male-biased in all vegetation types sampled. Distinct climate variables affected the abundance of spiders depending on sex, age and vegetal physiognomy where they were sampled. This study involved the longest sampling of spider abundance and diversity on the ground of a Brazilian Savanna.

  8. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  9. Seasonally-resolved trace element concentrations in stalagmites from a shallow cave in New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhon, N.; Banner, J.; Miller, N. R.; Carlson, P. E.; Breecker, D.

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution (sub-annual/seasonal) paleoclimate records extending beyond the instrumental period are required to test climate models and better understand how climate warming/cooling and wetting/drying are manifested seasonally. This is particularly the case for areas such as the southwest United States where precipitation and temperature seasonality dictate the regional climate. Study of a 20thcentury stalagmite (Carlson et al., in prep) documented (1) seasonal variation in trace element compositions of a stalagmite from a shallow, well-ventilated cave and (2) demonstrated the seasonal variation in stalagmite Mg to be in agreement with predicted temperature-dependent fractionation between water and calcite. The seasonal nature of variability was constrained by monitoring the cave on a monthly basis (Casteel and Banner, 2015; Carlson et al., in prep). Here we expand on using stalagmites from shallow, well-ventilated caves as archives of seasonally-resolved climate recorders by studying trace element variations in two coeval modern stalagmites (SBFC-1 and SBFC-2) cored from Sitting Bull Falls, southern New Mexico. Seasonal cycles will be confirmed by analyzing Mg, Ba, and Sr in in-situ calcite precipitated on artificial substrates as available (July, Sept., and Nov. 2017). The chronology is constrained by semi-automated peak counting and 14C bomb-peak. In addition, principal component analyses of trace element data identify two primary underlying modes of trace element variability for soil-derived elements (Cu, Zn, and Fe) and bedrock-derived elements (Mg, Sr, and Ba). We hypothesize that the soil-derived elements are transported by seasonal infiltration of organic colloids and the bedrock-derived elements are ­­controlled by variability in cave air temperature, drip water, and calcite growth rate. The two modes of variability will be calibrated against instrumental data over the 20th century. When complete, these new seasonally resolved proxy records will

  10. Seasonal Changes of Precipitation and Temperature of Mountainous Watersheds in Future Periods with Approach of Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Case study: Kashafrood Watershed Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Hydrology cycle of river basins and water resources availability in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes, so that recently the increase of temperature due to the increase of greenhouse gases have led to anomaly in the Earth’ climate system. At present, General Circulation Models (GCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. Up to now, IPCC has released four different versions of GCM models, including First Assessment Report models (FAR in 1990, Second Assessment Report models (SAR in 1996, Third Assessment Report models (TAR in 2001 and Fourth Assessment Report models (AR4 in 2007. In 2011, new generation of GCM, known as phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 released which it has been actively participated in the preparation of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC fifth Assessment report (AR5. A set of experiments such as simulations of 20th and projections of 21st century climate under the new emission scenarios (so called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are included in CMIP5. Iran is a country that located in arid and semi-arid climates mostly characterized by low rainfall and high temperature. Anomalies in precipitation and temperature in Iran play a significant role in this agricultural and quickly developing country. Growing population, extensive urbanization and rapid economic development shows that Iran faces intensive challenges in available water resources at present and especially in the future. The first purpose of this study is to analyze the seasonal trends of future climate components over the Kashafrood Watershed Basin (KWB located in the northeastern part of Iran and in the Khorsan-e Razavi province using fifth report of Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC under new emission scenarios with Mann-Kendall (MK test. Mann-Kendall is one of the most commonly used nonparametric

  11. Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

  12. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

  13. Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2018-01-01

    Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

  14. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coughlan, E.R.; Stephens, E.; Bischiniotis, K.; van Aalst, M.; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Mason, S.; Nissan, H.; Pappenberger, F.

    2017-01-01

    In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale

  15. Dynamic models of farmers adaptation to climate change (case of rice farmers in Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

    2018-03-01

    Farming activities are generally very sensitive to climate change variations. Global climate change will result in changes of patterns and distribution of rainfall. The impact of changing patterns and distribution of rainfall is the occurrence of early season shifts and periods of planting. Therefore, farmers need to adapt to the occurrence of climate change to avoid the decrease productivity on the farm land. This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change adaptation that farmers practiced on the farming productivity. The analysis is conducted dynamically using the Powersim 2.5. The result of analysis shows that the use of Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management technology can increase the rice productivity of certain area unity. Both technologies are the alternatives for farmers to adapt to climate change. Both farmers who adapt to climate change and do not adapt to climate change, experience an increase in rice production, time after time. However, farmers who adapt to climate change, increase their production faster than farmers who do not adapt to climate change. The use of the Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management strategy together as a farmers’ adaptation strategy is able to increase production compared to non-adaptive farmers.

  16. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

    2016-03-10

    The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

  17. Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For

  18. Cross-scale phenological data integration to benefit resource management and monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Andrew D.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is presenting new challenges for natural resource managers charged with maintaining sustainable ecosystems and landscapes. Phenology, a branch of science dealing with seasonal natural phenomena (bird migration or plant flowering in response to weather changes, for example), bridges the gap between the biosphere and the climate system. Phenological processes operate across scales that span orders of magnitude—from leaf to globe and from days to seasons—making phenology ideally suited to multiscale, multiplatform data integration and delivery of information at spatial and temporal scales suitable to inform resource management decisions.A workshop report: Workshop held June 2016 to investigate opportunities and challenges facing multi-scale, multi-platform integration of phenological data to support natural resource management decision-making.

  19. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  20. Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

    2006-01-01

    A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

  1. Seasonal variation in the populations of Polyphagotarsonemus latus and Tetranychus bastosi in physic nut (Jatropha curcas) plantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosado, Jander F; Picanço, Marcelo C; Sarmento, Renato A; da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Pedro-Neto, Marçal; Carvalho, Marcos Alberto; Erasmo, Eduardo A L; Silva, Laila Cristina Rezende

    2015-07-01

    Studies on the seasonal variation of agricultural pest species are important for the establishment of integrated pest control programs. The seasonality of pest attacks on crops is affected by biotic and abiotic factors, for example, climate and natural enemies. Besides that, characteristics of the host plant, crop management, location and the pests' bioecology also affect this seasonality. The mites Polyphagotarsonemus latus (Prostigmata: Tarsonemidae) and Tetranychus bastosi (Prostigmata: Tetranychidae) are the most important pests in the cultivation of physic nut, Jatropha curcas (Euphorbiaceae). All parts of J. curcas can be used for a wide range of purposes. In addition many researchers have studied its potential for use as neat oil, as transesterified oil (biodiesel), or as a blend with diesel. However studies about physic nut pests have been little known. The objective of this study was to assess the seasonal variation of P. latus and T. bastosi in physic nut. This study was conducted at three sites in the state of Tocantins, Brazil. We monitored climatic elements and the densities of the two mite species and of their natural enemies for a period of 2 years. Attack by P. latus occurred during rainy seasons, when the photoperiod was short and the physic nut had new leaves. In contrast, attack by T. bastosi occurred during warmer seasons with longer photoperiods and stronger winds. Populations of both mites and their natural enemies were greater in sites with greater plant diversity adjacent to the plantations. The predators found in association with P. latus and T. bastosi were Euseius concordis (Acari: Phytoseiidae), spiders, Stethorus sp. (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and Chrysoperla sp. (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae).

  2. Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI. The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.

  3. Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

  4. Seasonal climate manipulations have only minor effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics but strong effects on litter P dynamics of sub-arctic bog species.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, R.; Callaghan, T.V.; Dorrepaal, E.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2012-01-01

    Litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization in high-latitude peatlands are constrained by low temperatures. So far, little is known about the effects of seasonal components of climate change (higher spring and summer temperatures, more snow which leads to higher winter soil temperatures) on

  5. Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

  6. Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

  7. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  8. ICLIPS - integrated assessment of climate protection strategies. Final report; ICLIPS - Integrierte Abschaetzung von Klimaschutzstrategien. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toth, F.L.; Bruckner, T.; Fuessel, H.M.

    2000-12-01

    The ICLIPs project is connected to the development of integrated climate impact research in Germany. It is concerned not only with a single dimension of possible impacts of climate change, but it also investigates these impacts in the context of adaptation options and mitigation possibilities. The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) permits the explicit consideration of both ecological and economic requirements in identifying tolerable climate protection strategies. This way it fulfills the central objective of science policy related to the complex issue of 'Sustainable Growth'. In the project period, the ICLIPS model, a detailed integrated model of global climate change ('Integrated Assessment Model', IAM) was developed in the framework of a successful international cooperation. As a result, climate impact research in Germany succeeded to catch up with the international forefront in a research field that is very important for practical policy advice, and even managed to take a leading role in some important sub-fields. The ICLIPS model contains a series of innovative features that clearly distinguish this model from other intertemporal optimization models. The features worth mentioning here include: a numerically highly efficient climate model that covers all relevant greenhouse gases; a series of Climate Impact Response Functions that depict climate-relevant changes in natural vegetation systems, agricultural yields, and water availability; and finally a model of long-term economic development that explicitly considers the cost-reducing effects of technological learning. (orig.) [German] Das ICLIPS-Projekt bezieht sich auf die Weiterentwicklung der integrierten Klimafolgenforschung in Deutschland, die sich nicht nur eindimensional mit moeglichen Auswirkungen von Klimaveraenderungen beschaeftigt, sondern diese zusammen mit Anpassungsoptionen und Vermeidungsmoeglichkeiten untersucht. Der Fensteransatz, der bei der Identifizierung von tolerierbaren

  9. Seasonal dynamics and micro-climatic preference of two Alpine endemic hypogean beetles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Mammola

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Hypogean beetles generally live in stable environments, characterized by constant temperature and high relative humidity. Changes in the underground microclimatic conditions generally induce local migrations of the beetles through the hypogean environment in search of suitable microhabitats. We studied the seasonal dynamics and the micro-climatic preference of two Alpine endemic hypogean beetles - Sphodropsis ghilianii (Coleoptera, Carabidae and Dellabeffaella roccae (Coleoptera, Cholevidae - in the hypogean complex of Pugnetto (Graian Alps, Italy. We surveyed the two species for one year, using baited pitfall traps and measuring temperature and humidity along the two main caves. We used logistic regression mixed models (GLMMs to relate the presence of the two species to several variables, namely microclimate (seasonality, temperature, and humidity, subjacency and cave length. In addition, we tested the attractive power of the bait on the two species. The thermic optimum for S. ghilianii was found to be around 7°C, with an increasing probability of finding the species in the vicinity of the cave entrance during summer, autumn and spring. The species migrates inside the cave in winter, in response to the drop in the mean daily temperature and in the relative humidity occurring in the outer parts of the cave. On the contrary, D. roccae showed a significant preference for the deeper sections of the cave, characterized by an almost constant temperature of 9°C in air saturated with water vapour. Males and females individuals of both species were found to be equally affected by the environmental variables included in the analysis. We also provided information on the life history of the two species and methodological insights about the use of the bait in the traps

  10. Stakeholder consultations in the energy directorate : can they help integrate climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Tuinstra, W.

    2013-01-01

    Investigation of the conditions under which formal stakeholder consultations of the Directorate General Energy of the European Commission can help integrate climate change policy in energy policy in the European Union suggests that stakeholder consultations that aim at producing soft law and binding

  11. The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

    2018-03-01

    Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

  12. Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield; Funk, Chris

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

  13. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.Ch.; LeTreut, H.

    2002-07-01

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO 2 emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  14. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  15. Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hlavcova, K; Szolgay, J; Kohnova, S; Balint, G

    2008-01-01

    The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient simulations made by 3 GCMs - ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.

  16. Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 8. Impacts of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on agricultural growing seasons and crop water use efficiencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, J. E.

    1982-09-01

    The researchable areas addressed relate to the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural growing seasons and crop adaptation responses on a global basis. The research activities proposed are divided into the following two main areas of investigation: anticipated climate change impacts on the physical environmental characteristics of the agricultural growing seasons and, the most probable food crop responses to the possible changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels in plant environments. The main physical environmental impacts considered are the changes in temperature, or more directly, thermal energy levels and the growing season evapotranspiration-precipitation balances. The resulting food crop, commercial forest and rangeland species response impacts addressed relate to potential geographical shifts in agricultural growing seasons as determined by the length in days of the frost free period, thermal energy changes and water balance changes. In addition, the interaction of possible changes in plant water use efficiencies during the growing season in relationship to changing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations, is also considered under the scenario of global warming due to increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration. These proposed research investigations are followed by adaptive response evaluations.

  17. Fractionaly Integrated Flux model and Scaling Laws in Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, Daniel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    The Fractionaly Integrated Flux model (FIF) has been extensively used to model intermittent observables, like the velocity field, by defining them with the help of a fractional integration of a conservative (i.e. strictly scale invariant) flux, such as the turbulent energy flux. It indeed corresponds to a well-defined modelling that yields the observed scaling laws. Generalised Scale Invariance (GSI) enables FIF to deal with anisotropic fractional integrations and has been rather successful to define and model a unique regime of scaling anisotropic turbulence up to planetary scales. This turbulence has an effective dimension of 23/9=2.55... instead of the classical hypothesised 2D and 3D turbulent regimes, respectively for large and small spatial scales. It therefore theoretically eliminates a non plausible "dimension transition" between these two regimes and the resulting requirement of a turbulent energy "mesoscale gap", whose empirical evidence has been brought more and more into question. More recently, GSI-FIF was used to analyse climate, therefore at much larger time scales. Indeed, the 23/9-dimensional regime necessarily breaks up at the outer spatial scales. The corresponding transition range, which can be called "macroweather", seems to have many interesting properties, e.g. it rather corresponds to a fractional differentiation in time with a roughly flat frequency spectrum. Furthermore, this transition yields the possibility to have at much larger time scales scaling space-time climate fluctuations with a much stronger scaling anisotropy between time and space. Lovejoy, S. and D. Schertzer (2013). The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades. Cambridge Press (in press). Schertzer, D. et al. (1997). Fractals 5(3): 427-471. Schertzer, D. and S. Lovejoy (2011). International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 21(12): 3417-3456.

  18. Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streletskiy, Dmitry A; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I; Nyland, Kelsey E; Tananaev, Nikita I; Opel, Thomas; Streletskaya, Irina D; Tokarev, Igor’; Shiklomanov, Alexandr I

    2015-01-01

    Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape conditions. Samples of river flow, precipitation, snow cover, and permafrost ground ice were collected over the watersheds to determine isotopic composition of potential sources of water in a river flow over a two year period. Increases in air temperature over the last forty years have resulted in permafrost degradation and a decrease in the seasonal frost which is evident from soil temperature measurements, permafrost and active-layer monitoring, and analysis of satellite imagery. The lowering of the permafrost table has led to an increased storage capacity of permafrost affected soils and a higher contribution of ground water to river discharge during winter months. A progressive decrease in the thickness of the layer of seasonal freezing allows more water storage and pathways for water during the winter low period making winter discharge dependent on the timing and amount of late summer precipitation. There is a substantial seasonal variability of stable isotopic composition of river flow. Spring flooding corresponds to the isotopic composition of snow cover prior to the snowmelt. Isotopic composition of river flow during the summer period follows the variability of precipitation in smaller creeks, while the water flow of larger watersheds is influenced by the secondary evaporation of water temporarily stored in thermokarst lakes and bogs. Late summer precipitation determines the isotopic composition of texture ice within the active layer in tundra landscapes and the seasonal freezing layer in forested landscapes as well as the composition of the water flow during winter months. (letter)

  19. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  20. Combined influence of multiple climatic factors on the incidence of bacterial foodborne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myoung Su; Park, Ki Hwan; Bahk, Gyung Jin

    2018-01-01

    Information regarding the relationship between the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBD) and climatic factors is useful in designing preventive strategies for FBD based on anticipated future climate change. To better predict the effect of climate change on foodborne pathogens, the present study investigated the combined influence of multiple climatic factors on bacterial FBD incidence in South Korea. During 2011-2015, the relationships between 8 climatic factors and the incidences of 13 bacterial FBD, were determined based on inpatient stays, on a monthly basis using the Pearson correlation analyses, multicollinearity tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Of the 8 climatic variables, the combination of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation, and cloudiness was significantly associated with salmonellosis (Pclimatic factors. These findings indicate that the relationships between multiple climatic factors and bacterial FBD incidence can be valuable for the development of prediction models for future patterns of diseases in response to changes in climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Munaretto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decision-making tools and methods, and the literature on the governance of adaptation is in its infancy in this regard. We argue that climate adaptation governance would benefit from systematic and yet flexible decision-making tools and methods such as participatory multicriteria methods for the evaluation of adaptation options, and that these methods can be linked to key adaptive governance principles. Moving from these premises, we propose a framework that integrates key adaptive governance features into participatory multicriteria methods for the governance of climate adaptation.

  2. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  3. Real-Time Monitoring of Mountain Conifer Growth Response to Seasonal Climate and the Summer Monsoon in the Great Basin of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strachan, S.; Biondi, F.

    2013-12-01

    Tree rings in the American intermountain west are often used for palaeoclimatic purposes, including reconstructions of precipitation, temperature, and drought. Specific seasonal phenomena such as the North American Monsoon (NAM) are also being identified in tree-ring studies as being related to certain growth features in the rings (such as early-onset 'false' latewood). These relationships have historically been developed using statistical relationships between tree-ring chronologies and regional weather observations. In zones near the periphery of the NAM, summertime precipitation may be more sporadic, yet localized vegetation assemblages in the northern Mojave desert and Great Basin regions indicate that these events are still important for some ecosystems which have established in areas where NAM activity is present. Major shifts in NAM behavior in the past may have been recorded by tree rings, and identifying the specific mechanisms/circumstances by which this occurs is critical for efforts seeking to model ecosystem response to climate changes. By establishing in-situ monitoring of climate/weather, soils, and tree-growth variables in Pinus ponderosa scopulorum and Pinus monophylla zones at study sites in eastern/southern Nevada, we are able to address these issues at very fine spatial and temporal scales. Data from two seasons of monitoring precipitation, solar radiation, air temperature, soil temperature, soil water content, tree sap flow, tree radial distance increment, and hourly imagery are presented. Point dendrometers along with sap flow sensors monitor growth in these ponderosa pine around the clock to help researchers understand tree-ring/climate relationships.

  4. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  5. Quantitation of major allergens in dust samples from urban populations collected in different seasons in two climatic areas of the Basque region (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echechipía, S; Ventas, P; Audícana, M; Urrutia, I; Gastaminza, G; Polo, F; Fernández de Corres, L

    1995-06-01

    We present the results of allergen content evaluation in 80 dust samples from 31 homes of atopic patients from two climatic areas (humid and subhumid), collected in two seasons of the year (autumn and winter). Monoclonal antibody-based immunoassays were used to quantify Der p 1, Der f 1, Der 2, Lep d 1, and Fel d 1. The results were compared according to climate, season, and the type of sensitization (Pyroglyphidae mites, storage mites, or grass pollens). We underline the predominance of Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (89% of samples) over D. farinae (16% of samples) in our environment. Der p 1 rates were higher in the humid area (Mann-Whitney P < 0.001), especially in the autumn (Wilcoxon P < 0.05). Lep d 1 was detected in 23% of samples and Lep d 1 levels were higher in the homes of patients sensitized to storage mites (Mann-Whitney P < 0.05), whereas this allergen was not detected in the homes of pollen-allergic patients. Fel d 1 was detected in nine of the 31 homes (16% of samples) although there was a cat in only one home.

  6. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  7. Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

    2016-11-01

    The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO 2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: a northern hemisphere perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Omasa, Kenji; Paoletti, Elena

    2007-06-01

    Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies.

  9. Climate-smart technologies. Integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leal Filho, Walter; Mannke, Franziska; Schulte, Veronika [Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany). Faculty of Life Sciences; Mohee, Romeela; Surroop, Dinesh (eds.) [Mauritius Univ., Reduit (Mauritius). Chemical and Environmental Engineering Dept.

    2013-11-01

    Explores the links between climate change and technologies. Relates to the links between renewable energy and climate change. Documents and promotes a collection of experiences from island nations. Has a strong international focus and value to developing countries. The book addresses the perceived need for a publication with looks at both, climate smart technologies and the integration of renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses. Based on a set of papers submitted as part of the fifth on-line climate conference (CLIMATE 2012) and a major conference on renewable energy on island States held in Mauritius in 2012, the book provides a wealth of information on climate change strategies and the role of smart technologies. The book has been produced in the context of the project ''Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network'' (DIREKT), funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region.

  10. Landscape seasons and air mass dynamics in Latvia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krauklis, A.; Draveniece, A.

    2004-01-01

    Latvia is located in the middle of an area where the boreal and nemoral zones and the regions of oceanic and continental climate meet, and it was studied as a model territory of the most typical variation of boreo-nemoral ecotone. The subject of this study was seasonal dynamics of the state of landscapes and diachronous links between seasons. It was found that landscapes undergo 12 seasonal states or seasons during the annual cycle of insulation and air mass occurrence. Each season may be distinguished by a definite amount of solar radiation, distinctive state of heat and water balance, phenological state of vegetation, and a distinctive occurrence of different air mass types and their particular 'association'. During each season these variables show a particular combination of numerical values and a distinctive landscape pattern

  11. Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

    2009-03-01

    Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

  12. The effect of repetitive subconcussive collisions on brain integrity in collegiate football players over a single football season: A multi-modal neuroimaging study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slobounov, Semyon M; Walter, Alexa; Breiter, Hans C; Zhu, David C; Bai, Xiaoxiao; Bream, Tim; Seidenberg, Peter; Mao, Xianglun; Johnson, Brian; Talavage, Thomas M

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effect of repetitive subconcussive collisions on the structural and functional integrity of the brain remains largely unknown. Athletes in collision sports, like football, experience a large number of impacts across a single season of play. The majority of these impacts, however, are generally overlooked, and their long-term consequences remain poorly understood. This study sought to examine the effects of repetitive collisions across a single competitive season in NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision athletes using advanced neuroimaging approaches. Players were evaluated before and after the season using multiple MRI sequences, including T 1 -weighted imaging, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), arterial spin labeling (ASL), resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI), and susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI). While no significant differences were found between pre- and post-season for DTI metrics or cortical volumes, seed-based analysis of rs-fMRI revealed significant ( p  Football Bowl Subdivision, even in the absence of clinical symptoms or a diagnosis of concussion. Whether these changes reflect compensatory adaptation to cumulative head impacts or more lasting alteration of brain integrity remains to be further explored.

  13. Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tollefsen, Petter; Rypdal, Kristin; Torvanger, Asbjorn; Rive, Nathan

    2009-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO 2 , NH 3 , VOC, CO, NO x , black carbon, organic carbon, PM 2.5 , and CH 4 . We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.

  14. Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: A northern hemisphere perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Omasa, Kenji; Paoletti, Elena

    2007-01-01

    Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies. - Simultaneous addressing air pollution and climate change effects on forests is an opportunity for capturing synergies in future research and monitoring

  15. Place-based Learning About Climate with Elementary GLOBE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Harte, T.; Stanitski, D.; Taylor, J.

    2017-12-01

    Place-based education - helping students make connections between themselves, their community, and their local environment - is an important tool to help young learners understand their regional climate and start to learn about climate and environmental change. Elementary GLOBE storybooks and learning activities allow opportunities for place-based education instructional strategies about climate. In particular, two modules in the Elementary GLOBE unit - Seasons and Climate - provide opportunities for students to explore their local climate and environment. The storybooks and activities also make connections to other parts of elementary curriculum, such as arts, geography, and math. Over the long term, place-based education can also encourage students to be stewards of their local environment. A strong sense of place may help students to see themselves as stakeholders in their community and its resilience. In places that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate and environmental change and the economic, social, and environmental tradeoffs of community decisions, helping young students developing a sense of place and to see the connection between Earth science, local community, and their lives can have a lasting impact on how a community evolves for decades to come. Elementary GLOBE was designed to help elementary teachers (i.e., grades K-4) integrate Earth system science topics into their curriculum as they teach literacy skills to students. This suite of instructional materials includes seven modules. Each module contains a science-based storybook and learning activities that support the science content addressed in the storybooks. Elementary GLOBE modules feature air quality, climate, clouds, Earth system, seasons, soil, and water. New eBooks allow students to read stories on computers or tablets, with the option of listening to each story with an audio recording. A new Elementary GLOBE Teacher Implementation Guide, published in 2017, provides

  16. Integrating Dendrochronology, Climate and Satellite Remote Sensing to Better Understand Savanna Landscape Dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Southworth

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the integration and potential uses of linkages between climate dynamics, savanna vegetation and landscape level processes within a highly vulnerable region, both in terms of climate variability and social systems. We explore the combined applications of two time-series methodologies: (1 climate signals detected in tree ring growth, from published literature, chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, and minimal preliminary field data; and (2 new primary production (NPP data of vegetation cover over time derived from remotely sensed analyses. Both time-series are related to the regional patterns of precipitation, the principle driver of plant growth in the area. The approach is temporally and spatially multiscalar and examines the relationships between vegetation cover, type and amount, and precipitation shifts. We review literature linking dendrochronology, climate, and remotely sensed imagery, and, in addition, provide unique preliminary analyses from a dry study site located on the outer limit of the Okavango Delta. The work demonstrates integration across the different data sources, to provide a more holistic view of landscape level processes occurring in the last 30-50 years. These results corroborate the water-limited nature of the region and the dominance of precipitation in controlling vegetation growth. We present this integrative analysis of vegetation and climate change, as a prospective approach to facilitate the development of long-term climate/vegetation change records across multiple scales.

  17. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  18. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shongwe, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

  19. Seasonality and dietary requirements: will eating seasonal food contribute to health and environmental sustainability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdiarmid, Jennie I

    2014-08-01

    Eating more seasonal food is one proposal for moving towards more sustainable consumption patterns, based on the assumption that it could reduce the environmental impact of the diet. The aim of the present paper is to consider the implications of eating seasonal food on the different elements of sustainability (i.e. health, economics, society), not just the environment. Seasonality can be defined as either globally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season but consumed anywhere in the world) or locally seasonal (i.e. produced in the natural production season and consumed within the same climatic zone). The environmental, health, economic and societal impact varies by the definition used. Global seasonality has the nutritional benefit of providing a more varied and consistent supply of fresh produce year round, but this increases demand for foods that in turn can have a high environmental cost in the country of production (e.g. water stress, land use change with loss of biodiversity). Greenhouse gas emissions of globally seasonal food are not necessarily higher than food produced locally as it depends more on the production system used than transportation. Eating more seasonal food, however, is only one element of a sustainable diet and should not overshadow some of the potentially more difficult dietary behaviours to change that could have greater environmental and health benefits (e.g. reducing overconsumption or meat consumption). For future guidelines for sustainable diets to be realistic they will need to take into account modern lifestyles, cultural and social expectations in the current food environment.

  20. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  1. Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

    2015-04-01

    Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

  2. Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Jaya

    More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of

  3. Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    melting of sea ice. Hence, the change in seasonality and the associated change in feedback strength is an integral part of the positive surface albedo feedback leading to Arctic amplification and diminishing sea ice cover in the next century when global climate warms.

  4. Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayanlade, Ayansina; Radeny, Maren; Morton, John F; Muchaba, Tabitha

    2018-07-15

    This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days 0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Changes in seasonal climate patterns from 34-4 ka in a Soreq Cave (Israel) speleothem: Sub-annual resolution by ion microprobe and CLFM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orland, I. J.; Bar-Matthews, M.; Kita, N.; Ayalon, A.; Valley, J. W.

    2009-12-01

    Speleothems provide an important proxy-record of paleoclimate. Isotopic data from calcite-dominated cave formations have been used to identify changes in annual rainfall, monsoon strength, telecommunication of Northern Hemisphere climate aberrations, changes in vegetation cover, and other region-specific paleoclimate time-series over annual to millennial timescales. As more research is devoted to understanding abrupt climate change events, there is a need to develop high-temporal-resolution records from continental regions. However, in most isotopic studies, seasonality information is lost due to technical limitations. This study focuses on a speleothem from the semi-arid Eastern Mediterranean region (Soreq Cave, Israel) where prior research shows that conventional drill-sampling methods permit a temporal resolution of ~10-50 years in speleothem paleoclimate records. The WiscSIMS lab has developed analytical protocols for ion microprobe analysis that yield a precision of ~0.3‰ (2 s.d.) in δ18O from 10 μm-diameter spots, which permit multiple analyses/year in many speleothems. Orland et al. (2009, Quat. Res.) establish the methodology for the current study by identifying seasonal variability using a combination of confocal laser fluorescent microscopy (CLFM) and ion microprobe analysis in a younger (~2-1 ka) Soreq speleothem that has a consistent bright-grading-to-dark fluorescence pattern within each annual band. Further, Orland et al. define a quantitative measure of seasonality, Δ18O, that measures the difference in δ18O between bright and dark fluorescent portions of individual annual growth bands [Δ18O = δ18Odark - δ18Obright]. Smaller values of Δ18O are interpreted to be caused by dry years. The current study employs the aforementioned methods to examine seasonality trends in a sample that covers a much longer time period. We report δ18O from >1000 spots across a radial traverse of Soreq Cave sample 2N matched to imaging of annual growth bands by

  6. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulii Didovets

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, Upper Western Bug, and Samara characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.

  7. Seasonal shift in climatic limiting factors on tree transpiration: evidence from sap flow observations at alpine treelines in southeast Tibet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xinsheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0 oC. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  8. Seasonality as a Factor of Resort Treatment Efficiency of Patients with Cerebral Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr N. Bitsadze

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article, basing on the results of examination of 369 patients with cerebrovascular disorders considers the features of seasonality impact on the cerebral haemodynamics correction and climatic balneotherapy efficiency in the course of subtropical balneotherapy resort treatment. The findings indicate the necessity to differentiate the approaches to patients with cerebrovascular disorders referral to resort treatment and climatic balneotherapy procedures prescription, considering both cerebral ischemia stage and seasonality.

  9. Adaptation to seasonality and the winter freeze

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill Christine Preston

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Flowering plants initially diversified during the Mesozoic era at least 140 million years ago in regions of the world where temperate seasonal environments were not encountered. Since then several cooling events resulted in the contraction of warm and wet environments and the establishment of novel temperate zones in both hemispheres. In response, less than half of modern angiosperm families have members that evolved specific adaptations to cold seasonal climates, including cold acclimation, freezing tolerance, endodormancy, and vernalization responsiveness. Despite compelling evidence for multiple independent origins, the level of genetic constraint on the evolution of adaptations to seasonal cold is not well understood. However, the recent increase in molecular genetic studies examining the response of model and crop species to seasonal cold offers new insight into the evolutionary lability of these traits. This insight has major implications for our understanding of complex trait evolution, and the potential role of local adaptation in response to past and future climate change. In this review, we discuss the biochemical, morphological, and developmental basis of adaptations to seasonal cold, and synthesize recent literature on the genetic basis of these traits in a phylogenomic context. We find evidence for multiple genetic links between distinct physiological responses to cold, possibly reinforcing the coordinated expression of these traits. Furthermore, repeated recruitment of the same or similar ancestral pathways suggests that land plants might be somewhat pre-adapted to dealing with temperature stress, perhaps making inducible cold traits relatively easy to evolve.

  10. Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative

  11. The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. N. Racherla

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the response of surface ozone (O3 to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s and future (2050s climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O3 episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O3 chemical production. The 95th percentile O3 mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O3 chemical production is due to increases in: 1 natural isoprene emissions; 2 hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3 NOx concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05 increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O3 season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O3, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O3

  12. Identification of dominant interactions between climatic seasonality, catchment characteristics and agricultural activities on Budyko-type equation parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Yong, Bin

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying precipitation (P) partition into evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) is of great importance for global and regional water availability assessment. Budyko framework serves as a powerful tool to make simple and transparent estimation for the partition, using a single parameter, to characterize the shape of the Budyko curve for a "specific basin", where the single parameter reflects the overall effect by not only climatic seasonality, catchment characteristics (e.g., soil, topography and vegetation) but also agricultural activities (e.g., cultivation and irrigation). At the regional scale, these influencing factors are interconnected, and the interactions between them can also affect the single parameter of Budyko-type equations' estimating. Here we employ the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model to estimate the Budyko curve shape parameter (n in the Choudhury's equation, one form of the Budyko framework) of the selected 96 catchments across China using a data set of long-term averages for climatic seasonality, catchment characteristics and agricultural activities. Results show average storm depth (ASD), vegetation coverage (M), and seasonality index of precipitation (SI) are three statistically significant factors affecting the Budyko parameter. More importantly, four pairs of interactions are recognized by the MARS model as: The interaction between CA (percentage of cultivated land area to total catchment area) and ASD shows that the cultivation can weaken the reducing effect of high ASD (>46.78 mm) on the Budyko parameter estimating. Drought (represented by the value of Palmer drought severity index 0.23) tend to enhance the Budyko parameter reduction by large SI (>0.797). Low vegetation coverage (34.56%) is likely to intensify the rising effect on evapotranspiration ratio by IA (percentage of irrigation area to total catchment area). The Budyko n values estimated by the MARS model reproduce the calculated ones by the observation well

  13. In a Time of Change: Integrating the Arts and Humanities with Climate Change Science in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, M.; Golux, S.; Franzen, K.

    2011-12-01

    The arts and humanities have a powerful capacity to create lines of communication between the public, policy and scientific spheres. A growing network of visual and performing artists, writers and scientists has been actively working together since 2007 to integrate scientific and artistic perspectives on climate change in interior Alaska. These efforts have involved field workshops and collaborative creative processes culminating in public performances and a visual art exhibit. The most recent multimedia event was entitled In a Time of Change: Envisioning the Future, and challenged artists and scientists to consider future scenarios of climate change. This event included a public performance featuring original theatre, modern dance, Alaska Native Dance, poetry and music that was presented concurrently with an art exhibit featuring original works by 24 Alaskan visual artists. A related effort targeted K12 students, through an early college course entitled Climate Change and Creative Expression, which was offered to high school students at a predominantly Alaska Native charter school and integrated climate change science, creative writing, theatre and dance. Our program at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site is just one of many successful efforts to integrate arts and humanities with science within and beyond the NSF LTER Program. The efforts of various LTER sites to engage the arts and humanities with science, the public and policymakers have successfully generated excitement, facilitated mutual understanding, and promoted meaningful dialogue on issues facing science and society. The future outlook for integration of arts and humanities with science appears promising, with increasing interest from artists, scientists and scientific funding agencies.

  14. Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven T Stoddard

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

  15. Seasonal patterns in human A (H5N1 virus infection: analysis of global cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya B Mathur

    Full Text Available Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI A (H5N1 have high mortality. Despite abundant data on seasonal patterns in influenza epidemics, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist for human HPAI H5N1 cases worldwide. Such knowledge could help decrease avian-to-human transmission through increased prevention and control activities during peak periods.We performed a systematic search of published human HPAI H5N1 cases to date, collecting month, year, country, season, hemisphere, and climate data. We used negative binomial regression to predict changes in case incidence as a function of season. To investigate hemisphere as a potential moderator, we used AIC and the likelihood-ratio test to compare the season-only model to nested models including a main effect or interaction with hemisphere. Finally, we visually assessed replication of seasonal patterns across climate groups based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.We identified 617 human cases (611 with complete seasonal data occurring in 15 countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Case occurrence was much higher in winter (n = 285, p = 0.03 than summer (n = 64, and the winter peak occurred across diverse climate groups. There was no significant interaction between hemisphere and season.Across diverse climates, HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans increases significantly in winter. This is consistent with increased poultry outbreaks and HPAI H5N1 virus transmission during cold and dry conditions. Prioritizing prevention and control activities among poultry and focusing public health messaging to reduce poultry exposures during winter months may help to reduce zoonotic transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus in resource-limited settings.

  16. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  17. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  18. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  19. Geographical Variations in Blood Pressure Level and Seasonality in Hemodialysis Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duranton, Flore; Kramer, Anneke; Szwarc, Ilan; Bieber, Brian; Gayrard, Nathalie; Jover, Bernard; Vetromile, Fernando; Massy, Ziad A.; Combe, Christian; Tentori, Francesca; Jager, Kitty J.; Servel, Marie-Françoise; Argilés, Àngel

    2018-01-01

    Seasons and climate influence the regulation of blood pressure (BP) in the general population and in hemodialysis patients. It is unknown whether this phenomenon varies across the world. Our objective was to estimate BP seasonality in hemodialysis patients from different geographical locations.

  20. Modeling glacial climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

  1. The role of grid-connected, building-integrated photovoltaic generation in commercial building energy and power loads in a warm and sunny climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, P.; Ruether, R.

    2010-01-01

    For large commercial buildings, power load delivery limits are contracted with the local electricity distribution utility, and are usually fixed at one or more levels over the year, according to the seasonal building loads, and depending on the specific country regulations. Especially in warm and sunny climates, solar electricity generation using building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) can assist in reducing commercial building loads, offering peak-shaving (power) benefits on top of the on-site generation of electricity (energy). This on-site power delivery capability gives these consumers the possibility of renegotiating demand contracts with their distribution utility. Commercial buildings that operate during daytime quite often have an energy consumption profile that is well matched by solar radiation availability, and depending on the building's available surface areas, BIPV can generate considerable portions of the energy requirements. In this work we present the role of grid-connected BIPV in reducing the load demands of a large and urban commercial building located in a warm climate in Brazil. The building and adjacent car parking lots can accommodate a 1 MWp BIPV generator, which closely matches the building's typical maximum power demands. Based on real solar radiation data and simultaneous building electricity demands for the year 2007, simulation of the annual solar generation profile of this on-site generator showed that the 1 MWp BIPV system could account for around 30% of the total building's energy consumption. In addition to the energy benefit, maximum power demands were reduced due to a good match between midday air-conditioning cooling loads and solar radiation availability on both a daily and seasonal basis. Furthermore, we have simulated the effect of this considerably large urban-sited generator on the local distribution network load, and have shown that the 1 MWp BIPV installation can also offer considerable benefits to the local utility in

  2. Performances of some warm-season turfgrasses under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-09-15

    Sep 15, 2009 ... Main characteristics of mediterranean climate are represented by mild, rainy ... the warm-season turfgrasses with low water use rate and. *Corresponding ..... Lawns and Golf, Sleeping Bear Press, Chelsea, MI. Busey P (2003).

  3. Changes in vegetation phenology on the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Lijuan; Müller, Daniel; Cui, Xuefeng; Ma, Meihong

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

  4. Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feldacker Caryl

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns. Data, Methods, and Results Cholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern. Conclusion The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks.

  5. Harvest season, high polluted season in East China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Xin; Song Yu; Li Mengmeng; Li Jianfeng; Zhu Tong

    2012-01-01

    East China, a major agricultural zone with a dense population, suffers from severe air pollution during June, the agricultural harvest season, every year. Crop burning emits tremendous amounts of combustion products into the atmosphere, not only rapidly degrading the local air quality but also affecting the tropospheric chemistry, threatening public health and affecting climate change. Recently, in mid-June 2012, crop fires left a thick pall of haze over East China. We evaluated the PM 10 , PM 2.5 (particulates less than 10 and 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and BC (black carbon) emissions by analyzing detailed census data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing images and then simulated the consequent pollution using meteorological and dispersion models. The results show that the crop fires sweeping from the south to the north are responsible for the intensive air pollution during harvest season. It is necessary for scientists and governments to pay more attention to this issue. (letter)

  6. Potential contribution of groundwater to dry-season ET in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Fan, Ying

    2010-05-01

    Climate and land ecosystem models simulate vegetation stress in the Amazon forest in the dry season, but observations show enhanced growth in response to higher radiation under less cloudy skies indicating an adequate water supply. The question is: how does the vegetation obtain sufficient water, and what is missing in the models? Shallow model soil and rooting depth is a factor; the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution) may be another, but another cause may lie in the buffering effect of the groundwater found in nature but absent in models. We present observational and modeling evidence that the vast groundwater store, consequence of high annual rainfall combined with poor drainage in the Amazon, may provide a stable source for dry-season photosynthesis. The water table beneath the Amazon is sufficiently shallow (38% area 2mm/day to dry-season evapotranspiration, a non-negligible portion of tower-observed flux of 3-4mm/day, the latter including canopy-interception loss and open-water evaporation. This may have important implications to our understanding of Amazonia ecosystem response and feedback to climate change. Current models, lacking groundwater, predict a significant reduction in dry-season photosynthesis under current climate and large-scale dieback under projected future climate converting the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net source and accelerating warming. If groundwater is considered in the models, the magnitude of the responses and feedbacks may be reduced.

  7. Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

  8. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

  9. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  10. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  11. Ocean angular momentum signals in a climate model and implications for Earth rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponte, R. M.; Rajamony, J.; Gregory, J. M.

    2002-03-01

    Estimates of ocean angular momentum (OAM) provide an integrated measure of variability in ocean circulation and mass fields and can be directly related to observed changes in Earth rotation. We use output from a climate model to calculate 240 years of 3-monthly OAM values (two equatorial terms L1 and L2, related to polar motion or wobble, and axial term L3, related to length of day variations) representing the period 1860-2100. Control and forced runs permit the study of the effects of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability on OAM. All OAM components exhibit a clear annual cycle, with large decadal modulations in amplitude, and also longer period fluctuations, all associated with natural climate variability in the model. Anthropogenically induced signals, inferred from the differences between forced and control runs, include an upward trend in L3, related to inhomogeneous ocean warming and increases in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a significantly weaker seasonal cycle in L2 in the second half of the record, related primarily to changes in seasonal bottom pressure variability in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. Variability in mass fields is in general more important to OAM signals than changes in circulation at the seasonal and longer periods analyzed. Relation of OAM signals to changes in surface atmospheric forcing are discussed. The important role of the oceans as an excitation source for the annual, Chandler and Markowitz wobbles, is confirmed. Natural climate variability in OAM and related excitation is likely to measurably affect the Earth rotation, but anthropogenically induced effects are comparatively weak.

  12. Towards strategic stakeholder management? Integrating perspectives on sustainability challenges such as corporate responses to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2007-01-01

    The strategic management of corporate sustainability tends to be approached from one theoretical perspective in academic research and publications in mainstream journals simultaneously. In corporate practice, however, a sustainability issue has different dimensions that cannot be captured if only one such lens is taken. The purpose of this article is to develop a more integrated perspective, embedded in a stakeholder view. This paper uses climate change as an example to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain and stakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategic responses to one issue. This is subsequently linked to the climate strategies and related capabilities of companies, reckoning with societal and competitive contexts. Findings - What a corporate climate strategy looks like depends on the type of stakeholders that a company manages more proactively, which is in turn determined by the extent to which these stakeholders control critical resources. While empirical literature usually adopts a particular theoretical perspective, this article has attempted to develop a more integrative approach on corporate responses to climate change

  13. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  14. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  15. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  16. Seasonality of dizziness and vertigo in a tropical region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Alcione Botelho; Almeida, Leonardo Alves Ferreira; Pereira, Nayara Gorette; Menezes, Patrícia Andrade Freitas de; Felipe, Lilian; Volpe, Fernando Madalena

    2015-06-01

    Vertigo and dizziness are among the most common medical complaints in the emergency room, and are associated with a considerable personal and health care burden. Scarce and conflicting reports indicate those symptoms may present a seasonal distribution. This study aimed at investigating the existence of a seasonal distribution of vertigo/dizziness in a tropical region, and the correlations of these findings with climatic variables. The charts of all patients consecutively admitted between 2009 and 2012 in the emergency room of a Brazilian general hospital were reviewed. A total of 4920 cases containing these terms were sorted from a sample of 276,076 emergency records. Seasonality was assessed using Cosinor Analysis. Pearson's correlations were performed between the incidence of consultations, considering separately dizziness and vertigo and each of the predictor climatic variables of that index month. Significant seasonal patterns were observed for dizziness and vertigo in the emergency room. Vertigo was more frequent in late winter-spring, negatively correlating to humidity (r = -0.374; p = 0.013) and rainfall (r = -0.334; p = 0.020). Dizziness peaked on summer months, and positively correlated to average temperatures (r = 0.520; p vertigo indicate possible distinct underlying mechanisms of how seasons may influence the occurrence of those symptoms.

  17. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F. [Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling for the North Sea is presented. The numerical model used for the study is the coupled ice-ocean model OPYC. In a hindcast of the years 1979 to 1993 it was forced with atmospheric forcing of the ECMWF reanalysis. The models capability in simulating the observed mean state and variability in the North Sea is demonstrated by the hindcast. Two time scale ranges, from weekly to seasonal and the longer-than-seasonal time scales are investigated. Shorter time scales, for storm surges, are not captured by the model formulation. The main modes of variability of sea level, sea-surface circulation, sea-surface temperature, and sea-surface salinity are described and connections to atmospheric phenomena, like the NAO, are discussed. T106 ''time-slice'' simulations with a ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' horizon are used to estimate the effects of a changing climate on the shelf sea ''North Sea''. The ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' changes in the surface forcing are accompanied by changes in the lateral oceanic boundary conditions taken from a global coupled climate model. For ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' the time mean sea level increases up to 25 cm in the German Bight in the winter, where 15 cm are due to the surface forcing and 10 cm due to thermal expansion. This change is compared to the ''natural'' variability as simulated in the ECMWF integration and found to be not outside the range spanned by it. The variability of sea level on the weekly-to-seasonal time-scales is significantly reduced in the scenario integration. The variability on the longer-than-seasonal time-scales in the control and scenario runs is much smaller then in the ECMWF integration. This is traced back to the use of ''time-slice'' experiments. Discriminating between locally forced changes and changes induced at the lateral oceanic boundaries of the model in the circulation and

  18. MECHANISMS FOR THE SEASONAL CYCLE IN THE ANTARCTIC COASTAL OCEANS

    OpenAIRE

    オオシマ; Kay I., OHSHIMA

    1996-01-01

    Seasonal variations of the Antarctic coastal oceans has not been well understood owing to logistical difficulties in observations, especially during the ice-covered season. Recently, 'Weddell Gyre Study' and 'Japanese Antarctic Climate Research program' have revealed the following seasonal variations in the Antarctic coastal ocean. First, the thickness of the Winter Water (WW) layer, characterized by cold, fresh, oxygen-rich water, exhibits its maximum in the austral fall and its minimum in t...

  19. Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jee, Hee-Jung; Cho, Chul-Hyun; Lee, Yu Jin; Choi, Nari; An, Hyonggin; Lee, Heon-Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Previous studies have indicated that suicide rates have significant seasonal variations. There is seasonal discordance between temperature and solar radiation due to the monsoon season in South Korea. We investigated the seasonality of suicide and assessed its association with climate variables in South Korea. Suicide rates were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea, and climatic data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration for the period of 1992-2010. We conducted analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM). First, we explored the seasonality of suicide and climate variables such as mean temperature, daily temperature range, solar radiation, and relative humidity. Next, we identified confounding climate variables associated with suicide rate. To estimate the adjusted effect of solar radiation on the suicide rate, we investigated the confounding variables using a multivariable GAM. Suicide rate showed seasonality with a pattern similar to that of solar radiation. We found that the suicide rate increased 1.008 times when solar radiation increased by 1 MJ/m 2 after adjusting for other confounding climate factors (P Solar radiation has a significant linear relationship with suicide after adjusting for region, other climate variables, and time trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Caribbean Small Island Developing States: Integrating Local and External Knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiina Kurvits

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS are vulnerable to climate change impacts including sea level rise, invasive species, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall patterns, increased temperatures, and changing hazard regimes including hurricanes, floods and drought. Given high dependencies in Caribbean SIDS on natural resources for livelihoods, a focus on ecosystems and their interaction with people is essential for climate change adaptation. Increasingly, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA approaches are being highlighted as an approach to address climate change impacts. Specifically, EbA encourages the use of local and external knowledge about ecosystems to identify climate change adaptation approaches. This paper critically reviews EbA in Caribbean SIDS, focusing on the need to integrate local and external knowledge. An analysis of current EbA in the Caribbean is undertaken alongside a review of methodologies used to integrate local and external expertise for EbA. Finally key gaps, lessons learnt and suggested ways forward for EbA in Caribbean SIDS and potentially further afield are identified.

  1. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  2. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  3. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  4. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  5. Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E

    2007-02-02

    Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

  6. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2018-04-01

    A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

  7. An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Urban Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiangsheng Hu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and accelerated urbanization have posed severe challenges to urban development, resulting in a growing series of climate and environmental problems that have a significant impact on industrial production and urban life. In a developing country such as China, more than 57% of the population lives in urban areas. It is vital for these cities to adapt to climate-induced risks. A better understanding of how to improve adaptive capacity could enhance the ability to achieve a desirable state when the city experiences stress. This paper used an integrated approach for evaluating the urban adaptive capacity to climate change. It developed the evaluation index system of urban adaptive capacity (UAC based on the driver–pressure–state–impact–response model (DPSIR, and adopted grey relational analysis (GRA and the entropy method to analyze the level of UAC in Changsha, the capital city of Hunan Province, from 2006 to 2015. The results revealed that the UAC of Changsha showed a significant increase from 2006 to 2015. Among the five first-grade indicators, the response dimension had the greatest influence on the improvement of UAC. The study may provide suggestions for adaptive capacity building and sustainable development in other urban areas.

  8. Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

    2018-06-01

    Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

    2018-06-01

    The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in

  10. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  11. A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keune, Hans; Ludlow, David; van den Hazel, Peter; Randall, Scott; Bartonova, Alena

    2012-06-28

    The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection

  12. Plasticity of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) wood-forming tissues during a growing season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, J A P; Garnier-Géré, P H; Rodrigues, J C; Alves, A; Santos, S; Graça, J; Le Provost, G; Chaumeil, G; Da Silva-Perez, D; Bosc, A; Fevereiro, P; Plomion, C

    2008-01-01

    The seasonal effect is the most significant external source of variation affecting vascular cambial activity and the development of newly divided cells, and hence wood properties. Here, the effect of edapho-climatic conditions on the phenotypic and molecular plasticity of differentiating secondary xylem during a growing season was investigated. Wood-forming tissues of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) were collected from the beginning to the end of the growing season in 2003. Data from examination of fibre morphology, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), analytical pyrolysis, and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) were combined to characterize the samples. Strong variation was observed in response to changes in edapho-climatic conditions. A genomic approach was used to identify genes differentially expressed during this growing season. Out of 3512 studied genes, 19% showed a significant seasonal effect. These genes were clustered into five distinct groups, the largest two representing genes over-expressed in the early- or late-wood-forming tissues, respectively. The other three clusters were characterized by responses to specific edapho-climatic conditions. This work provides new insights into the plasticity of the molecular machinery involved in wood formation, and reveals candidate genes potentially responsible for the phenotypic differences found between early- and late-wood.

  13. An exploration of spatial patterns of seasonal diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, B J J; Alonso, W J; Miller, M A

    2012-07-01

    Studies of temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease can suggest putative aetiological agents and environmental or socioeconomic drivers. Here, the seasonal patterns of monthly acute diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand, where diarrhoeal morbidity is increasing, are explored. Climatic data (2003-2006) and Thai Ministry of Health annual reports (2003-2009) were used to construct a spatially weighted panel regression model. Seasonal patterns of diarrhoeal disease were generally bimodal with aetiological agents peaking at different times of the year. There is a strong association between daily mean temperature and precipitation and the incidence of hospitalization due to acute diarrhoea in Thailand leading to a distinct spatial pattern in the seasonal pattern of diarrhoea. Model performance varied across the country in relation to per capita GDP and population density. While climatic factors are likely to drive the general pattern of diarrhoeal disease in Thailand, the seasonality of diarrhoeal disease is dampened in affluent urban populations.

  14. Climate Record Books

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Climate Record Books contain daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual averages, extremes, or occurrences. Most data are sequential by period of record 1871-1910,...

  15. Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Sheng, Yongwei; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Yi, Shuang; Bird, Broxton W.; Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhu, La; Zhang, Guoqing

    2017-01-01

    The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.

  16. Prevalence and seasonality of parasites of fish in Agulu Lake ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Owner

    2014-01-15

    Jan 15, 2014 ... belonging to four families (Cichlidae, Bagridae, Hepsetidae and Channidae), seven genera and nine species were collected from the lake ... Fish oil contains omega-3-essential fatty acids necessary for the proper ... 7°01' and 7°03'E. The climate of the area shows two distinct seasons namely, rainy season ...

  17. Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

    2012-02-10

    Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

  18. Changes in vegetation phenology on the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Miao

    Full Text Available Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

  19. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  20. Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

    2013-10-01

    The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.