WorldWideScience

Sample records for integrating population modeling

  1. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-01-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  4. Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee

  5. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  6. World population in transition : An integrated regional modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilderink, Henricus Bernardus Maria

    2000-01-01

    The world’s population reached the milestone of 6 billion in 1999 and increases by around 150 persons each minute. In the last few decades, population growth seen in the light of limited natural and economic resources has become of growing concern. Now, at the beginning of a new millennium,

  7. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  8. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R Fieberg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008, data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success, and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002. We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable

  9. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieberg, John R; Shertzer, Kyle W; Conn, Paul B; Noyce, Karen V; Garshelis, David L

    2010-08-12

    Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and

  10. Integral control for population management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Logemann, Hartmut; Rebarber, Richard; Bill, Adam; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Hodgson, Dave; Townley, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    We present a novel management methodology for restocking a declining population. The strategy uses integral control, a concept ubiquitous in control theory which has not been applied to population dynamics. Integral control is based on dynamic feedback-using measurements of the population to inform management strategies and is robust to model uncertainty, an important consideration for ecological models. We demonstrate from first principles why such an approach to population management is suitable via theory and examples.

  11. Integrative demographic modeling reveals population level impacts of PCB toxicity to juvenile snapping turtles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salice, Christopher J.; Rowe, Christopher L.; Eisenreich, Karen M.

    2014-01-01

    A significant challenge in ecotoxicology and risk assessment lies in placing observed contaminant effects in a meaningful ecological context. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been shown to affect juvenile snapping turtle survival and growth but the ecological significance of these effects is difficult to discern without a formal, population-level assessment. We used a demographic matrix model to explore the potential population-level effects of PCBs on turtles. Our model showed that effects of PCBs on juvenile survival, growth and size at hatching could translate to negative effects at the population level despite the fact that these life cycle components do not typically contribute strongly to population level processes. This research points to the utility of using integrative demographic modeling approaches to better understand contaminant effects in wildlife. The results indicate that population-level effects are only evident after several years, suggesting that for long-lived species, detecting adverse contaminant effects could prove challenging. -- Highlights: • Previous studies have shown the PCBs can impact juvenile snapping turtles. • We used a demographic model of turtles to evaluate population-level PCB effects. • PCB effects on turtles may translate to negative population responses. • Long-term monitoring is needed to detect contaminant effects on natural turtle populations. • Demographic models can improve our understanding contaminant ecotoxicity. -- A demographic model was used to show that PCB induced effects on young snapping turtles can result in adverse effects at the population level

  12. Population density models of integrate-and-fire neurons with jumps: well-posedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Grégory; Henry, Jacques

    2013-09-01

    In this paper we study the well-posedness of different models of population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with a population density approach. The synaptic interaction between neurons is modeled by a potential jump at the reception of a spike. We study populations that are self excitatory or self inhibitory. We distinguish the cases where this interaction is instantaneous from the one where there is a repartition of conduction delays. In the case of a bounded density of delays both excitatory and inhibitory population models are shown to be well-posed. But without conduction delay the solution of the model of self excitatory neurons may blow up. We analyze the different behaviours of the model with jumps compared to its diffusion approximation.

  13. Integration of Density Dependence and Concentration Response Models Provides an Ecologically Relevant Assessment of Populations Exposed to Toxicants

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment of toxic exposure on wildlife populations involves the integration of organism level effects measured in toxicity tests (e.g., chronic life cycle) and population models. These modeling exercises typically ignore density dependence, primarily because information on ...

  14. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  15. Population persistence of stream fish in response to environmental change: integrating data and models across space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, B. H.; Schueller, P.; Bassar, R.; Coombs, J.; Rosner, A.; Sakrejda, K.; Kanno, Y.; Whiteley, A.; Nislow, K. H.

    2013-12-01

    For stream fishes, environmental variation is a key driver of individual body growth/movement/survival and, by extension, population dynamics. Identifying how stream fish respond to environmental variation can help clarify mechanisms responsible for population dynamics and can help provide tools to forecast relative resilience of populations across space. Forecasting dynamics across space is challenging, however, because it can be difficult to conduct enough studies with enough intensity to fully characterize broad-scale population response to environmental change. We have adopted a multi-scale approach, using detailed individual-based studies and analyses (integral projection matrix) to determine sensitivities of population growth to environmental variation combined with broad spatial data and analyses (occupancy and abundance models) to estimate patterns of population response across space. Population growth of brook trout was most sensitive to stream flow in the spring and winter, most sensitive to stream temperature in the fall and sensitive to both flow and temperature in the summer. High flow in the spring and winter had negative effects on population growth while high temperature had a negative effect in the fall. Flow had no effect when it was cold, but a positive effect when it was warm in the summer. Combined with occupancy and abundance models, these data give insight into the spatial structure of resilient populations and can help guide prioritization of management actions.

  16. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  17. Master Middle Ware: A Tool to Integrate Water Resources and Fish Population Dynamics Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Thompson, L. C.; Kilduff, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Linking models that investigate separate components of ecosystem processes has the potential to unify messages regarding management decisions by evaluating potential trade-offs in a cohesive framework. This project aimed to improve the ability of riparian resource managers to forecast future water availability conditions and resultant fish habitat suitability, in order to better inform their management decisions. To accomplish this goal, we developed a middleware tool that is capable of linking and overseeing the operations of two existing models, a water resource planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and a habitat-based fish population dynamics model (WEAPhish). First, we designed the Master Middle Ware (MMW) software in Visual Basic for Application® in one Excel® file that provided a familiar framework for both data input and output Second, MMW was used to link and jointly operate WEAP and WEAPhish, using Visual Basic Application (VBA) macros to implement system level calls to run the models. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, hydrological, biological, and middleware model components were developed for the Butte Creek basin. This tributary of the Sacramento River, California is managed for both hydropower and the persistence of a threatened population of spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha). While we have demonstrated the use of MMW for a particular watershed and fish population, MMW can be customized for use with different rivers and fish populations, assuming basic data requirements are met. This model integration improves on ad hoc linkages for managing data transfer between software programs by providing a consistent, user-friendly, and familiar interface across different model implementations. Furthermore, the data-viewing capabilities of MMW facilitate the rapid interpretation of model results by hydrologists, fisheries biologists, and resource managers, in order to accelerate learning and management decision

  18. A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher A; Adams, Michael J; Peterson, James T

    2017-09-01

    Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010-2011 to 0.86 in 2012-2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but

  19. Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into a matrix projection model for Drosophila suzukii population estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nik G Wiman

    Full Text Available Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit. Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.

  20. An Integrated Model of Suicidal Ideation in Transcultural Populations of Chinese Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Cyrus L K; Kwok, Sylvia Y C L; Ling, Chloe C Y

    2016-07-01

    This study tested the model of suicidal ideation, incorporating family and personal factors to predict suicidal ideation with hopelessness as a mediating factor in the Hong Kong sample, to a sample in Shanghai. Using MGSEM, the study aims to investigate the personal correlates and the family correlates of suicidal ideation in Hong Kong and Shanghai adolescents. We integrated the family ecological and diathesis-stress-hopelessness models of suicidal ideation in connecting the correlates. A cross-sectional design was used. The full model achieved metric invariance and partial path-loading invariance. Family functioning and social problem solving negatively predicted hopelessness or suicidal ideation in both the Hong Kong and Shanghai adolescents. The results supported an integrative approach in facilitating parent-adolescent communication and strengthening family functioning, and reducing the use of negative social problem-solving styles in adolescent suicide prevention.

  1. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

    2017-10-15

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  3. Tuberculosis in Sheltered Homeless Population of Rome: An Integrated Model of Recruitment for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Laurenti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors show the results of an integrated model for risk management of tuberculosis in a sample of sheltered homeless in Rome. Tuberculin skin test (TST was used for evaluating the prevalence of latent infection (LTBI. In TST positives, expectorate was collected and chest X-ray was achieved. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate determinants of infection. Out of 288 recruited subjects, 259 returned for the TST reading; 45.56% were positive and referred to a specialized center; 70 accessed the health facility and completed the clinical pathway. The risk factors associated to LTBI were male gender (OR=3.72, age over 60 years (OR=3.59, immigrant status (OR=3.73, and obesity (OR=2.19. This approach, based on an integrated social network, guarantees high adherence to screening (89.93%, allowing patients testing positive for latent tuberculosis infection to be diagnosed and rapidly referred to a specialized center.

  4. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

  5. A hierarchical integrated population model for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, California and Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Halstead, Brian J.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne; Howe, Kristy B.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Reese, Kerry P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    rate (i.e., finite rate of change, λ) and specific demographic parameters that explain sources of variation in λ within different subpopulations would be valuable for making conservation and management decisions for this DPS. During 2003–12, agencies and universities collaborated to conduct extensive monitoring of sage-grouse populations within the Bi-State DPS. Data regarding lek attendance, movement, and survival of sage-grouse across multiple life stages were documented. Specifically, sage-grouse from nearly all subpopulations were marked and tracked across multiple seasons using radio-telemetry techniques. A hierarchical integrated population modeling (IPM) approach was used to derive demographic parameters for the Bi-State DPS using the large amount of data collected over a 10-year period. This modeling approach allows integration of multiple data sources to inform population growth rates and population vital rates for the Bi-State DPS overall, as well as for individual subpopulations. These models are more informative than other models because they integrate inputs of demographic data (for example, survival and fecundity rates) and survey data (for example, lek observations). The findings here will help characterize population growth rates within the Bi-State DPS.

  6. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  7. Grand challenges in evolutionary and population genetics: The importance of integrating epigenetics, genomics, modeling, and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman

    2014-01-01

    This is a time of explosive growth in the fields of evolutionary and population genetics, with whole genome sequencing and bioinformatics driving a transformative paradigm shift (Morozova and Marra, 2008). At the same time, advances in epigenetics are thoroughly transforming our understanding of evolutionary processes and their implications for populations, species and...

  8. Integrated Climate Change and Threatened Bird Population Modeling to Mitigate Operations Risks on Florida Military Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Morris, 1991) and a quantitative variance-based method ( Sobol ’, 1993). The screening method allows an initial reduction in the number of parameters...generic (model free) methods, a qualitative Morris method and a quantitative variance-based Sobol method. The Morris method ranks the model inputs...according to their importance in driving model outputs uncertainty, while the Sobol method computes the contribution of each model input to the

  9. DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

    or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

  10. And So It Grows: Using a Computer-Based Simulation of a Population Growth Model to Integrate Biology & Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Garrett M.; Laubach, Timothy A.

    2013-01-01

    We provide a 5E structured-inquiry lesson so that students can learn more of the mathematics behind the logistic model of population biology. By using models and mathematics, students understand how population dynamics can be influenced by relatively simple changes in the environment.

  11. Population pharmacokinetic model of THC integrates oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dosing and characterizes short- and long-term pharmacokinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuberger, Jules A A C; Guan, Zheng; Oyetayo, Olubukayo-Opeyemi; Klumpers, Linda; Morrison, Paul D; Beumer, Tim L; van Gerven, Joop M A; Cohen, Adam F; Freijer, Jan

    2015-02-01

    Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannobinol (THC), the main psychoactive compound of Cannabis, is known to have a long terminal half-life. However, this characteristic is often ignored in pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of THC, which may affect the accuracy of predictions in different pharmacologic areas. For therapeutic use for example, it is important to accurately describe the terminal phase of THC to describe accumulation of the drug. In early clinical research, the THC challenge test can be optimized through more accurate predictions of the dosing sequence and the wash-out between occasions in a crossover setting, which is mainly determined by the terminal half-life of the compound. The purpose of this study is to better quantify the long-term pharmacokinetics of THC. A population-based PK model for THC was developed describing the profile up to 48 h after an oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dose of THC in humans. In contrast to earlier models, the current model integrates all three major administration routes and covers the long terminal phase of THC. Results show that THC has a fast initial and intermediate half-life, while the apparent terminal half-life is long (21.5 h), with a clearance of 38.8 L/h. Because the current model characterizes the long-term pharmacokinetics, it can be used to assess the accumulation of THC in a multiple-dose setting and to forecast concentration profiles of the drug under many different dosing regimens or administration routes. Additionally, this model could provide helpful insights into the THC challenge test used for the development of (novel) compounds targeting the cannabinoid system for different therapeutic applications and could improve decision making in future clinical trials.

  12. Integrating chemical fate and population-level effect models of pesticides: the importance of capturing the right scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Focks, A.; Horst, ter M.M.S.; Berg, van den E.; Baveco, H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Any attempt to introduce more ecological realism into ecological risk assessment of chemicals faces the major challenge of integrating different aspects of the chemicals and species of concern, for example, spatial scales of emissions, chemical exposure patterns in space and time, and population

  13. Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

    2015-01-01

    Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

  14. Effectiveness of integrated care model for type 2 diabetes: A population-based study in Reggio Emilia (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballotari, Paola; Venturelli, Francesco; Manicardi, Valeria; Ferrari, Francesca; Vicentini, Massimo; Greci, Marina; Pignatti, Fabio; Storani, Simone; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    To compare the effectiveness of integrated care with that of the diabetes clinic care model in terms of mortality and hospitalisation of type 2 diabetes patients with low risk of complications. Out of 27234 people with type 2 diabetes residing in the province of Reggio Emilia on 31/12/2011, 3071 were included in this cohort study as eligible for integrated care (i.e., low risk of complications) and cared for with the same care model for at least two years. These patients were followed up from 2012 to 2016, for all-cause and diabetes-related mortality and hospital admissions. We performed a Poisson regression model, using the proportion of eligible patients included in the integrated care model for each general practitioner as an instrumental variable. 1700 patients were cared for by integrated care and 1371 by diabetes clinics. Mortality rate ratios were 0.83 (95%CI 0.60-1.13) and 0.95 (95%CI 0.54-1.70) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, and incidence rate ratios were 0.90 (95%CI 0.76-1.06) and 0.91 (95%CI 0.69-1.20) for all-cause and cardiovascular disease hospitalisation, respectively. For low risk patients with type 2 diabetes, the integrated care model involving both general practitioner and diabetes clinic professionals showed similar mortality and hospitalisation as a model with higher use of specialized care in an exclusively diabetes clinic setting.

  15. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mul, Monique F.; Riel, van Johannes; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; Andre, Geert; George, David R.; Meerburg, Bastiaan G.; Dicke, Marcel; Mourik, van Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W.G.

    2017-01-01

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting

  16. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    and outside the IAM. All IAM projections to date are conditional on assumed inputs such as population dynamics and economic growth. A key part of evaluation exercises will be the substantial effort needed to develop the necessary historical datasets. Given the fundamentally uncertain characteristics of the socio-economic system, alternative formulations of the evaluation question may turn out to be useful. For example, is is likely useful to ask: how much needs to be specified on order to be able to reproduce historical trends to within a given accuracy? There is also a close, and fundamental, link between evaluation and diagnostic exercises that aim to evaluate the characteristics of future scenarios (rates of growth, technology diffusion, etc.) against historical behavior. These exercises are currently being conducted by individual groups due, in part, due to the large diversity if IAM designs and goals. While all climate models are, to first order, modeling the same system, boundary conditions, and physical laws, this is not true for IAMs. The structure, and even feasibility, of a hindcast-style evaluation exercise can be very different depending on the structure of each specific integrated assessment model.

  17. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five...

  18. Model integration and a theory of models

    OpenAIRE

    Dolk, Daniel R.; Kottemann, Jeffrey E.

    1993-01-01

    Model integration extends the scope of model management to include the dimension of manipulation as well. This invariably leads to comparisons with database theory. Model integration is viewed from four perspectives: Organizational, definitional, procedural, and implementational. Strategic modeling is discussed as the organizational motivation for model integration. Schema and process integration are examined as the logical and manipulation counterparts of model integr...

  19. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  20. INTEGRATED CORPORATE STRATEGY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CATALINA SORIANA SITNIKOV

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Corporations are at present operating in demanding and highly unsure periods, facing a mixture of increased macroeconomic need, competitive and capital market dangers, and in many cases, the prospect for significant technical and regulative gap. Throughout these demanding and highly unsure times, the corporations must pay particular attention to corporate strategy. In present times, corporate strategy must be perceived and used as a function of various fields, covers, and characters as well as a highly interactive system. For the corporation's strategy to become a competitive advantage is necessary to understand and also to integrate it in a holistic model to ensure sustainable progress of corporation activities under the optimum conditions of profitability. The model proposed in this paper is aimed at integrating the two strategic models, Hoshin Kanri and Integrated Strategy Model, as well as their consolidation with the principles of sound corporate governance set out by the OECD.

  1. IMMIGRANTS’ INTEGRATION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARMEN UZLĂU

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the European population aging trend, and while the birth rate is still at a low level, the immigrants may contribute to the support of the EU economy and to finance the national social protection systems. But this would be possible only if they have been fully integrated in the host countries, the integration policies being a task of the national governments. The European Union may still offer support and stimulation through financing, policies coordination and good practices exchange facilitation. The new measures should encourage local level actions, including cooperation between local authorities, employers, migrants’ organizations, service providers and local population. Within the EU, there live 20.1 million immigrants (approximately 4% of the entire population coming from outside European area. An important element of the common EU policy on immigration is the one regarding the development of a policy on immigrants’ integration, which should provide a fair treatment within the member states, and guarantee rights and obligations comparable with the ones of the Union citizens.

  2. POPULATION STRUCTURES OF FOUR TREE SPECIES IN LOGGED-OVER TROPICAL FOREST IN SOUTH PAPUA, INDONESIA: AN INTEGRAL PROJECTION MODEL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relawan kuswandi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Selective logging has been taking place in Papua for several decades. In contrast, very little is known about the stand structure in post-logged forest. Hence, this paper investigates stand structures in logged-over area of tropical forest in South Papua. Four species were selected in three one-hectare permanent sample plots (PSPs: Vatica rassak, Syzygium sp, Litsea timoriana and Canarium asperum. PSPs were located in the forest concession area of PT. Tunas Sawaerma in Assiki, Boven Digul, in South Papua. Data sets comprised measurements made in 2005 and 2012 consisting of species, diameter at breast height (DBH, mortality and number of tree of each species. Integral Projection Models (IPMs were developed, taking into account mortality, growth, recruitment and fecundity. Results show the pattern of stand structures of the four species were more or less similar, i.e. more individual trees were present in the small diameter classes than in the larger diameter classes. The general pattern of the individual distribution of the four species is the typical reverse-J shape. Syzygium sp. has a greater number of individuals in the small diameter classes than the other three species. Population growth rates (λ are above one, indicating that the stand structures of the population dynamics of the four species are recuperating. Conclusively, these results suggest that species composition and population structure in these logged-over forests are recovering increasingly.

  3. Global human capital: integrating education and population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

    2011-07-29

    Almost universally, women with higher levels of education have fewer children. Better education is associated with lower mortality, better health, and different migration patterns. Hence, the global population outlook depends greatly on further progress in education, particularly of young women. By 2050, the highest and lowest education scenarios--assuming identical education-specific fertility rates--result in world population sizes of 8.9 and 10.0 billion, respectively. Better education also matters for human development, including health, economic growth, and democracy. Existing methods of multi-state demography can quantitatively integrate education into standard demographic analysis, thus adding the "quality" dimension.

  4. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  5. Diverse methods for integrable models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fehér, G.

    2017-01-01

    This thesis is centered around three topics, sharing integrability as a common theme. This thesis explores different methods in the field of integrable models. The first two chapters are about integrable lattice models in statistical physics. The last chapter describes an integrable quantum chain.

  6. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  7. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries

  8. Integrated Medical Model Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; Saile, L.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project.

  9. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  10. Integrative structure modeling with the Integrative Modeling Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Benjamin; Viswanath, Shruthi; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Greenberg, Charles H; Saltzberg, Daniel; Sali, Andrej

    2018-01-01

    Building models of a biological system that are consistent with the myriad data available is one of the key challenges in biology. Modeling the structure and dynamics of macromolecular assemblies, for example, can give insights into how biological systems work, evolved, might be controlled, and even designed. Integrative structure modeling casts the building of structural models as a computational optimization problem, for which information about the assembly is encoded into a scoring function that evaluates candidate models. Here, we describe our open source software suite for integrative structure modeling, Integrative Modeling Platform (https://integrativemodeling.org), and demonstrate its use. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  11. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  12. Business and technology integrated model

    OpenAIRE

    Noce, Irapuan; Carvalho, João Álvaro

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing interest in business modeling and architecture in the areas of management and information systems. One of the issues in the area is the lack of integration between the modeling techniques that are employed to support business development and those used for technology modeling. This paper proposes a modeling approach that is capable of integrating the modeling of the business and of the technology. By depicting the business model, the organization structure and the technolog...

  13. Redwoods: a population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, C A

    1971-04-23

    The chief conclusion to be drawn from the results of this study is that redwoods are amazingly vigorous. The results support both the lumber companies and the conservationists. There is no question that old growth giant redwoods must be preserved. Only commercial greed could be a basis for refuting that stand. On the other hand, the lumber companies seem to be supported in their contention that redwoods can be farmed without driving them to extinction. The central issue revolves around the old trees. And here profit is the big factor. Lumbering is an important industry in California, and redwood lumbering represents about 20 percent of the industry (l). Most of the big names in timber, such as Weyerhaeuser and Georgia-Pacific, are involved in logging the California redwood. At the current rate of logging, particularly of old growth stands, the Bank of America estimates that employment in Humboldt County will be down significantly by 1975 (4). It has been argued that tourism would more than compensate for the lower employment in logging. But not if the trees that the tourists come to see are gone. Why can't young and mature trees be harvested at a reasonable rate, the old trees saved, and both tourism and logging flourish? The question posed earlier has been answered. Redwood growth and survival can be modeled, using matrix methods in a new context. Meaningful conclusions may be drawn. And the results are sufficiently tantalizing to inspire further research.

  14. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  15. Population-expression models of immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  16. Integrability of the Rabi Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braak, D.

    2011-01-01

    The Rabi model is a paradigm for interacting quantum systems. It couples a bosonic mode to the smallest possible quantum model, a two-level system. I present the analytical solution which allows us to consider the question of integrability for quantum systems that do not possess a classical limit. A criterion for quantum integrability is proposed which shows that the Rabi model is integrable due to the presence of a discrete symmetry. Moreover, I introduce a generalization with no symmetries; the generalized Rabi model is the first example of a nonintegrable but exactly solvable system.

  17. The Challenges Of Integrating Population Issues Into Development ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamic is one of the prime factors for social, economic and technological change worldwide. As population size and composition change in an area, people have to adjust leading to innumerable alterations in the way society operates. The integration of population issues into development planning is crucial.

  18. Integrable quantum impurity models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckle, H.P.

    1998-01-01

    By modifying some of the local L operators of the algebraic form of the Bethe Ansatz inhomogeneous one dimensional quantum lattice models can be constructed. This fact has recently attracted new attention, the inhomogeneities being interpreted as local impurities. The Hamiltonians of the so constructed one-dimensional quantum models have a nearest neighbour structure except in the vicinity of the local impurities which involve three-site interactions. The pertinent feature of these models is the absence of backscattering at the impurities: the impurities are transparent. (Copyright (1998) World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd)

  19. Gravitational interactions of integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdalla, E.; Abdalla, M.C.B.

    1995-10-01

    We couple non-linear σ-models to Liouville gravity, showing that integrability properties of symmetric space models still hold for the matter sector. Using similar arguments for the fermionic counterpart, namely Gross-Neveu-type models, we verify that such conclusions must also hold for them, as recently suggested. (author). 18 refs

  20. Integrated Debugging of Modelica Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Pop

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The high abstraction level of equation-based object-oriented (EOO languages such as Modelica has the drawback that programming and modeling errors are often hard to find. In this paper we present integrated static and dynamic debugging methods for Modelica models and a debugger prototype that addresses several of those problems. The goal is an integrated debugging framework that combines classical debugging techniques with special techniques for equation-based languages partly based on graph visualization and interaction. To our knowledge, this is the first Modelica debugger that supports both equation-based transformational and algorithmic code debugging in an integrated fashion.

  1. Integrated Inflammatory Stress (ITIS) Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsgaard, Elisabeth O.; Hjorth, Poul G.; Olufsen, Mette S.

    2017-01-01

    maintains a long-term level of the stress hormone cortisol which is also anti-inflammatory. A new integrated model of the interaction between these two subsystems of the inflammatory system is proposed and coined the integrated inflammatory stress (ITIS) model. The coupling mechanisms describing....... A constant activation results in elevated levels of the variables in the model while a prolonged change of the oscillations in ACTH and cortisol concentrations is the most pronounced result of different LPS doses predicted by the model....

  2. Integrated Medical Model – Chest Injury Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) developed the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to forecast the resources...

  3. Implications of the Vienna Integrated Model of Art Perception for art-based interventions in clinical populations: Comment on "Move me, astonish me... delight my eyes and brain: The Vienna Integrated Model of top-down and bottom-up processes in Art Perception (VIMAP) and corresponding affective, evaluative, and neurophysiological correlates" by Matthew Pelowski et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taruffi, Liila; Koelsch, Stefan

    2017-07-01

    Pelowski et al. present a holistic framework within which the multiple processes underlying art viewing can be systematically organized [1]. The proposed model integrates a broad range of dynamic mechanisms, which can effectively account for empirical as well as humanistic perspectives on art perception. Particularly challenging is the final section of the article, where the authors draw a correspondence between behavioral and cognitive components and brain structures (as well as networks). Here, we comment on the implications of the Vienna Integrated Model of Art Perception for art therapy in clinical populations, particularly focusing on (1) expanding Pelowski et al.'s considerations of the Default Mode Network (DMN) into discussion of its relevance to mental diseases, and (2) elaborating on empathic resonance in aesthetic contexts and the capacity of art to build up empathic skills.

  4. The integrated economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrota, J.; Cirelli, J.F.; Brimont, S.; Lyle, C.; Nossent, G.; Moraleda, P.

    2005-01-01

    The setting up of the European energy market has triggered a radical change of the context within with the energy players operated. The natural markets of the incumbent operators, which were formerly demarcated by national and even regional borders, have extended to at least the scale of the European Union. In addition to their geographical development strategy, gas undertakings are diversifying their portfolios towards both upstream as well as downstream activities of the gas chain, and/or extending their offers to other energies and services. Energy players' strategies are rather complex and sometimes give the impression that of being based on contradictory decisions. Some operators widen their field of operations, whereas others specialize in a limited number of activities. This Round Table provides an opportunity to compare business models as adopted by the major gas undertakings in response to structural changes observed in various countries over recent years

  5. Integration of effects on human populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harwell, M.A.; Harwell, C.C.

    1985-01-01

    It seems possible that several hundred millions of humans could die from the direct effects of nuclear war. The indirect effects could result in the loss of one to several billions of humans. How close the latter projection would come to loss of all humans is problematical, but the current best estimation is that this result would not follow from the physical and societal perturbations currently projected to occur after a large-scale nuclear war. One important issue of scale to keep in mind is the difference between estimating that on a global scale the bases for human support would be undetermined for a particular fraction of the population (e.g., estimating insufficient food to support more than a certain fraction of the current population), and predicting the survival strategies of small groups of people. Projections of global-scale population losses do not mean that even in those areas in which humans would be expected to die, all would suffer the same fate. No analysis have been attempted here concerning the capability of selected humans on a relatively small scale (e.g., individual, family, community level) to find a successful strategy for survival. That a person or group in a combatant country might find a way to escape the effects of radiation, societal disruptions, climatic alterations, and the host of other potential disruptions, and still continue to survive seems possible, even in devastated areas. That billions of people could do so in the absence of a sufficient food support base is impossible. Thus, one needs to distinguish carefully between possible survival strategies on a small scale, and the physical limitations of support for massive numbers of people on a large scale

  6. Separations and safeguards model integration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B.; Zinaman, Owen

    2010-09-01

    Research and development of advanced reprocessing plant designs can greatly benefit from the development of a reprocessing plant model capable of transient solvent extraction chemistry. This type of model can be used to optimize the operations of a plant as well as the designs for safeguards, security, and safety. Previous work has integrated a transient solvent extraction simulation module, based on the Solvent Extraction Process Having Interaction Solutes (SEPHIS) code developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with the Separations and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) developed at Sandia National Laboratory, as a first step toward creating a more versatile design and evaluation tool. The goal of this work was to strengthen the integration by linking more variables between the two codes. The results from this integrated model show expected operational performance through plant transients. Additionally, ORIGEN source term files were integrated into the SSPM to provide concentrations, radioactivity, neutron emission rate, and thermal power data for various spent fuels. This data was used to generate measurement blocks that can determine the radioactivity, neutron emission rate, or thermal power of any stream or vessel in the plant model. This work examined how the code could be expanded to integrate other separation steps and benchmark the results to other data. Recommendations for future work will be presented.

  7. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  8. Enabling model customization and integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Minho; Fishwick, Paul A.

    2003-09-01

    Until fairly recently, the idea of dynamic model content and presentation were treated synonymously. For example, if one was to take a data flow network, which captures the dynamics of a target system in terms of the flow of data through nodal operators, then one would often standardize on rectangles and arrows for the model display. The increasing web emphasis on XML, however, suggests that the network model can have its content specified in an XML language, and then the model can be represented in a number of ways depending on the chosen style. We have developed a formal method, based on styles, that permits a model to be specified in XML and presented in 1D (text), 2D, and 3D. This method allows for customization and personalization to exert their benefits beyond e-commerce, to the area of model structures used in computer simulation. This customization leads naturally to solving the bigger problem of model integration - the act of taking models of a scene and integrating them with that scene so that there is only one unified modeling interface. This work focuses mostly on customization, but we address the integration issue in the future work section.

  9. Developing Integrated Care: Towards a development model for integrated care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M.N. Minkman (Mirella)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe thesis adresses the phenomenon of integrated care. The implementation of integrated care for patients with a stroke or dementia is studied. Because a generic quality management model for integrated care is lacking, the study works towards building a development model for integrated

  10. Challenges in horizontal model integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolczyk, Katrin; Conradi, Carsten

    2016-03-11

    Systems Biology has motivated dynamic models of important intracellular processes at the pathway level, for example, in signal transduction and cell cycle control. To answer important biomedical questions, however, one has to go beyond the study of isolated pathways towards the joint study of interacting signaling pathways or the joint study of signal transduction and cell cycle control. Thereby the reuse of established models is preferable, as it will generally reduce the modeling effort and increase the acceptance of the combined model in the field. Obtaining a combined model can be challenging, especially if the submodels are large and/or come from different working groups (as is generally the case, when models stored in established repositories are used). To support this task, we describe a semi-automatic workflow based on established software tools. In particular, two frequent challenges are described: identification of the overlap and subsequent (re)parameterization of the integrated model. The reparameterization step is crucial, if the goal is to obtain a model that can reproduce the data explained by the individual models. For demonstration purposes we apply our workflow to integrate two signaling pathways (EGF and NGF) from the BioModels Database.

  11. Integrated modeling: a look back

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Clark

    2015-09-01

    This paper discusses applications and implementation approaches used for integrated modeling of structural systems with optics over the past 30 years. While much of the development work focused on control system design, significant contributions were made in system modeling and computer-aided design (CAD) environments. Early work appended handmade line-of-sight models to traditional finite element models, such as the optical spacecraft concept from the ACOSS program. The IDEAS2 computational environment built in support of Space Station collected a wider variety of existing tools around a parametric database. Later, IMOS supported interferometer and large telescope mission studies at JPL with MATLAB modeling of structural dynamics, thermal analysis, and geometric optics. IMOS's predecessor was a simple FORTRAN command line interpreter for LQG controller design with additional functions that built state-space finite element models. Specialized language systems such as CAESY were formulated and prototyped to provide more complex object-oriented functions suited to control-structure interaction. A more recent example of optical modeling directly in mechanical CAD is used to illustrate possible future directions. While the value of directly posing the optical metric in system dynamics terms is well understood today, the potential payoff is illustrated briefly via project-based examples. It is quite likely that integrated structure thermal optical performance (STOP) modeling could be accomplished in a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) tool set. The work flow could be adopted, for example, by a team developing a small high-performance optical or radio frequency (RF) instrument.

  12. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  13. Integrated model of destination competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armenski Tanja

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine the weakest point of Serbian destination competitiveness as a tourist destination in comparation with its main competitors. The paper is organized as follows. The short introduction of the previous research on the destination competitiveness is followed by description of the Integrated model of destination competitiveness (Dwyer et al, 2003 that was used as the main reference framework. Section three is devoted to the description of the previous studies on competitiveness of Serbian tourism, while section four outlines the statistical methodology employed in this study and presents and interprets the empirical results. The results showed that Serbia is more competitive in its natural, cultural and created resources than in destination management while, according to the Integrated model, Serbia is less competitive in demand conditions that refer to the image and awareness of the destination itself.

  14. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics, as given by Haldane, allows for a statistical interaction between distinguishable particles (multi-species statistics). The thermodynamic quantities for such statistics ca be evaluated exactly. The explicit expressions for the cluster coefficients are presented. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence onto the higher-dimensional and the multi-species cases remain essentially open

  15. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question

  16. Integrated materials–structural models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stang, Henrik; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    , repair works and strengthening methods for structures. A very significant part of the infrastructure consists of reinforced concrete structures. Even though reinforced concrete structures typically are very competitive, certain concrete structures suffer from various types of degradation. A framework...... should define a framework in which materials research results eventually should fit in and on the other side the materials research should define needs and capabilities in structural modelling. Integrated materials-structural models of a general nature are almost non-existent in the field of cement based...

  17. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  18. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  19. Integrated Site Model Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, T.

    2000-01-01

    The Integrated Site Model (ISM) provides a framework for discussing the geologic features and properties of Yucca Mountain, which is being evaluated as a potential site for a geologic repository for the disposal of nuclear waste. The ISM is important to the evaluation of the site because it provides 3-D portrayals of site geologic, rock property, and mineralogic characteristics and their spatial variabilities. The ISM is not a single discrete model; rather, it is a set of static representations that provide three-dimensional (3-D), computer representations of site geology, selected hydrologic and rock properties, and mineralogic-characteristics data. These representations are manifested in three separate model components of the ISM: the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Rock Properties Model (RPM), and the Mineralogic Model (MM). The GFM provides a representation of the 3-D stratigraphy and geologic structure. Based on the framework provided by the GFM, the RPM and MM provide spatial simulations of the rock and hydrologic properties, and mineralogy, respectively. Functional summaries of the component models and their respective output are provided in Section 1.4. Each of the component models of the ISM considers different specific aspects of the site geologic setting. Each model was developed using unique methodologies and inputs, and the determination of the modeled units for each of the components is dependent on the requirements of that component. Therefore, while the ISM represents the integration of the rock properties and mineralogy into a geologic framework, the discussion of ISM construction and results is most appropriately presented in terms of the three separate components. This Process Model Report (PMR) summarizes the individual component models of the ISM (the GFM, RPM, and MM) and describes how the three components are constructed and combined to form the ISM

  20. Cotangent Models for Integrable Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesenhofer, Anna; Miranda, Eva

    2017-03-01

    We associate cotangent models to a neighbourhood of a Liouville torus in symplectic and Poisson manifolds focusing on b-Poisson/ b-symplectic manifolds. The semilocal equivalence with such models uses the corresponding action-angle theorems in these settings: the theorem of Liouville-Mineur-Arnold for symplectic manifolds and an action-angle theorem for regular Liouville tori in Poisson manifolds (Laurent- Gengoux et al., IntMath Res Notices IMRN 8: 1839-1869, 2011). Our models comprise regular Liouville tori of Poisson manifolds but also consider the Liouville tori on the singular locus of a b-Poisson manifold. For this latter class of Poisson structures we define a twisted cotangent model. The equivalence with this twisted cotangent model is given by an action-angle theorem recently proved by the authors and Scott (Math. Pures Appl. (9) 105(1):66-85, 2016). This viewpoint of cotangent models provides a new machinery to construct examples of integrable systems, which are especially valuable in the b-symplectic case where not many sources of examples are known. At the end of the paper we introduce non-degenerate singularities as lifted cotangent models on b-symplectic manifolds and discuss some generalizations of these models to general Poisson manifolds.

  1. MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei OGREZEANU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.

  2. The systems integration modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danker, W.J.; Williams, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the systems integration modeling system (SIMS), an analysis tool for the detailed evaluation of the structure and related performance of the Federal Waste Management System (FWMS) and its interface with waste generators. It's use for evaluations in support of system-level decisions as to FWMS configurations, the allocation, sizing, balancing and integration of functions among elements, and the establishment of system-preferred waste selection and sequencing methods and other operating strategies is presented. SIMS includes major analysis submodels which quantify the detailed characteristics of individual waste items, loaded casks and waste packages, simulate the detailed logistics of handling and processing discrete waste items and packages, and perform detailed cost evaluations

  3. An architecture for integration of multidisciplinary models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Holst, Niels

    2014-01-01

    Integrating multidisciplinary models requires linking models: that may operate at different temporal and spatial scales; developed using different methodologies, tools and techniques; different levels of complexity; calibrated for different ranges of inputs and outputs, etc. On the other hand......, Enterprise Application Integration, and Integration Design Patterns. We developed an architecture of a multidisciplinary model integration framework that brings these three aspects of integration together. Service-oriented-based platform independent architecture that enables to establish loosely coupled...

  4. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  5. Integrating genetic data and population viability analyses for the identification of harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations and management units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Morten Tange; Andersen, Liselotte Wesley; Dietz, Rune

    2014-01-01

    present a novel approach, integrating genetic, life-history and demographic data to identify populations and management units in southern Scandinavian harbour seals. First, 15 microsatellite markers and model- and distance-based genetic clustering methods were used to determine the population genetic...... structure in harbour seals. Second, we used harbour seal demographic and life-history data to conduct population viability analyses (PVAs) in the VORTEX simulation model in order to determine whether the inferred genetic units could be classified as management units according to Lowe and Allendorf's (2010......, and that the combined use of genetic data and PVAs constitute a promising approach for delineating populations and management units. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  6. Integration of design applications with building models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eastman, C. M.; Jeng, T. S.; Chowdbury, R.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews various issues in the integration of applications with a building model... (Truncated.)......This paper reviews various issues in the integration of applications with a building model... (Truncated.)...

  7. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  8. Qualitative Analysis of Integration Adapter Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ritter, Daniel; Holzleitner, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Integration Adapters are a fundamental part of an integration system, since they provide (business) applications access to its messaging channel. However, their modeling and configuration remain under-represented. In previous work, the integration control and data flow syntax and semantics have been expressed in the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) as a semantic model for message-based integration, while adapter and the related quality of service modeling were left for further studi...

  9. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  10. Integrated Modelling in CRUCIAL Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mukhamedzhanova, Elena; Nerobelov, Georgiy; Sedeeva, Margarita; Suhodskiy, Alexander; Mostamandy, Suleiman; Smyshlyaev, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    The NordForsk CRUCIAL project (2016-2017) "Critical steps in understanding land surface - atmosphere interactions: from improved knowledge to socioeconomic solutions" as a part of the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) programme activities, is looking for a deeper collaboration between Nordic-Russian science communities. In particular, following collaboration between Danish and Russian partners, several topics were selected for joint research and are focused on evaluation of: (1) urbanization processes impact on changes in urban weather and climate on urban-subregional-regional scales and at contribution to assessment studies for population and environment; (2) effects of various feedback mechanisms on aerosol and cloud formation and radiative forcing on urban-regional scales for better predicting extreme weather events and at contribution to early warning systems, (3) environmental contamination from continues emissions and industrial accidents for better assessment and decision making for sustainable social and economic development, and (4) climatology of atmospheric boundary layer in northern latitudes to improve understanding of processes, revising parameterizations, and better weather forecasting. These research topics are realized employing the online integrated Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) model within students' research projects: (1) "Online integrated high-resolution modelling of Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area influence on weather and air pollution forecasting"; (2) "Modeling of aerosol impact on regional-urban scales: case study of Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area"; (3) "Regional modeling and GIS evaluation of environmental pollution from Kola Peninsula sources"; and (4) "Climatology of the High-Latitude Planetary Boundary Layer". The students' projects achieved results and planned young scientists research training on online integrated modelling (Jun 2017) will be presented and

  11. Integrable models of quantum optics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yudson Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We give an overview of exactly solvable many-body models of quantum optics. Among them is a system of two-level atoms which interact with photons propagating in a one-dimensional (1D chiral waveguide; exact eigenstates of this system can be explicitly constructed. This approach is used also for a system of closely located atoms in the usual (non-chiral waveguide or in 3D space. Moreover, it is shown that for an arbitrary atomic system with a cascade spontaneous radiative decay, the fluorescence spectrum can be described by an exact analytic expression which accounts for interference of emitted photons. Open questions related with broken integrability are discussed.

  12. Topological quantum theories and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keski-Vakkuri, E.; Niemi, A.J.; Semenoff, G.; Tirkkonen, O.

    1991-01-01

    The path-integral generalization of the Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula is investigated for integrable models. It is shown that for models with periodic classical trajectories the path integral reduces to a form similar to the finite-dimensional Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula. This provides a relation between exactness of the stationary-phase approximation and Morse theory. It is also argued that certain integrable models can be related to topological quantum theories. Finally, it is found that in general the stationary-phase approximation presumes that the initial and final configurations are in different polarizations. This is exemplified by the quantization of the SU(2) coadjoint orbit

  13. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  14. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  15. Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractPeriodically integrated time series require a periodic differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. A non-periodic integrated time series needs the first-difference filter for similar reasons. When the changing seasonal fluctuations for the non-periodic integrated series can be

  16. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  17. Validation of the Community Integration Questionnaire in the adult burn injury population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, Paul; Kazis, Lewis E; Ryan, Colleen M; Shie, Vivian L; Holavanahalli, Radha; Lee, Austin; Jette, Alan; Fauerbach, James A; Esselman, Peter; Herndon, David; Schneider, Jeffrey C

    2015-11-01

    With improved survival, long-term effects of burn injuries on quality of life, particularly community integration, are important outcomes. This study aims to assess the Community Integration Questionnaire's psychometric properties in the adult burn population. Data were obtained from a multicenter longitudinal data set of burn survivors. The psychometric properties of the Community Integration Questionnaire (n = 492) were examined. The questionnaire items were evaluated for clinical and substantive relevance; validation procedures were conducted on different samples of the population; construct validity was assessed using exploratory factor analysis; internal consistency reliability was examined using Cronbach's α statistics; and item response theory was applied to the final models. The CIQ-15 was reduced by two questions to form the CIQ-13, with a two-factor structure, interpreted as self/family care and social integration. Item response theory testing suggests that Factor 2 captures a wider range of community integration levels. Cronbach's α was 0.80 for Factor 1, 0.77 for Factor 2, and 0.79 for the test as a whole. The CIQ-13 demonstrates validity and reliability in the adult burn survivor population addressing issues of self/family care and social integration. This instrument is useful in future research of community reintegration outcomes in the burn population.

  18. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  19. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  20. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  1. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  2. Integrable models in classical and quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurco, B.

    1991-01-01

    Integrable systems are investigated, especially the rational and trigonometric Gaudin models. The Gaudin models are diagonalized for the case of classical Lie algebras. Their relation to the other integrable models and to the quantum inverse scattering method is investigated. Applications in quantum optics and plasma physics are discussed. (author). 94 refs

  3. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  4. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  5. Integrating common and rare genetic variation in diverse human populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; Peltonen, Leena; Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; Peltonen, Leena; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Schaffner, Stephen F; Yu, Fuli; Peltonen, Leena; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Bonnen, Penelope E; Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; de Bakker, Paul I W; Deloukas, Panos; Gabriel, Stacey B; Gwilliam, Rhian; Hunt, Sarah; Inouye, Michael; Jia, Xiaoming; Palotie, Aarno; Parkin, Melissa; Whittaker, Pamela; Yu, Fuli; Chang, Kyle; Hawes, Alicia; Lewis, Lora R; Ren, Yanru; Wheeler, David; Gibbs, Richard A; Muzny, Donna Marie; Barnes, Chris; Darvishi, Katayoon; Hurles, Matthew; Korn, Joshua M; Kristiansson, Kati; Lee, Charles; McCarrol, Steven A; Nemesh, James; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Keinan, Alon; Montgomery, Stephen B; Pollack, Samuela; Price, Alkes L; Soranzo, Nicole; Bonnen, Penelope E; Gibbs, Richard A; Gonzaga-Jauregui, Claudia; Keinan, Alon; Price, Alkes L; Yu, Fuli; Anttila, Verneri; Brodeur, Wendy; Daly, Mark J; Leslie, Stephen; McVean, Gil; Moutsianas, Loukas; Nguyen, Huy; Schaffner, Stephen F; Zhang, Qingrun; Ghori, Mohammed J R; McGinnis, Ralph; McLaren, William; Pollack, Samuela; Price, Alkes L; Schaffner, Stephen F; Takeuchi, Fumihiko; Grossman, Sharon R; Shlyakhter, Ilya; Hostetter, Elizabeth B; Sabeti, Pardis C; Adebamowo, Clement A; Foster, Morris W; Gordon, Deborah R; Licinio, Julio; Manca, Maria Cristina; Marshall, Patricia A; Matsuda, Ichiro; Ngare, Duncan; Wang, Vivian Ota; Reddy, Deepa; Rotimi, Charles N; Royal, Charmaine D; Sharp, Richard R; Zeng, Changqing; Brooks, Lisa D; McEwen, Jean E

    2010-09-02

    Despite great progress in identifying genetic variants that influence human disease, most inherited risk remains unexplained. A more complete understanding requires genome-wide studies that fully examine less common alleles in populations with a wide range of ancestry. To inform the design and interpretation of such studies, we genotyped 1.6 million common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,184 reference individuals from 11 global populations, and sequenced ten 100-kilobase regions in 692 of these individuals. This integrated data set of common and rare alleles, called 'HapMap 3', includes both SNPs and copy number polymorphisms (CNPs). We characterized population-specific differences among low-frequency variants, measured the improvement in imputation accuracy afforded by the larger reference panel, especially in imputing SNPs with a minor allele frequency of populations supports deeper interrogation of genomic variation and its role in human disease, and serves as a step towards a high-resolution map of the landscape of human genetic variation.

  6. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT): Composites Integrated Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Composites Integrated Modeling (CIM) Element developed low cost, lightweight, and efficient composite structures, materials and manufacturing technologies with...

  7. Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Conroy, Charlie; Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: ebyler@astro.washington.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

  8. Modeling integrated biomass gasification business concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Ted Bilek; Mark A. Dietenberger

    2011-01-01

    Biomass gasification is an approach to producing energy and/or biofuels that could be integrated into existing forest product production facilities, particularly at pulp mills. Existing process heat and power loads tend to favor integration at existing pulp mills. This paper describes a generic modeling system for evaluating integrated biomass gasification business...

  9. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, H A; Hansen, S B

    2009-07-08

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, {Delta}n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  10. A Fractionally Integrated Wishart Stochastic Volatility Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThere has recently been growing interest in modeling and estimating alternative continuous time multivariate stochastic volatility models. We propose a continuous time fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility (FIWSV) process. We derive the conditional Laplace transform of

  11. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  12. Data requirements for integrated near field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilems, R.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Faust, C.R.; Brecher, A.

    1981-01-01

    The coupled nature of the various processes in the near field require that integrated models be employed to assess long term performance of the waste package and repository. The nature of the integrated near field models being compiled under the SCEPTER program are discussed. The interfaces between these near field models and far field models are described. Finally, near field data requirements are outlined in sufficient detail to indicate overall programmatic guidance for data gathering activities

  13. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  14. Consulting Psychiatry within an Integrated Primary Care Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiter, Elizabeth A. Zeidler; Pandhi, Nancy; Fondow, Meghan D. M.; Thomas, Chantelle; Vonk, Jantina; Reardon, Claudia L.; Serrano, Neftali

    2014-01-01

    Summary After implementation of an integrated consulting psychiatry model and psychology services within primary care at a federally qualified health center, patients have increased access to needed mental health services, and primary care clinicians receive the support and collaboration needed to meet the psychiatric needs of the population. PMID:24185149

  15. MEASURING INFORMATION INTEGR-ATION MODEL FOR CAD/CMM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A CAD/CMM workpiece modeling system based on IGES file is proposed. The modeling system is implemented by using a new method for labelling the tolerance items of 3D workpiece. The concept-"feature face" is used in the method. First the CAD data of workpiece are extracted and recognized automatically. Then a workpiece model is generated, which is the integration of pure 3D geometry form with its corresponding inspection items. The principle of workpiece modeling is also presented. At last, the experiment results are shown and correctness of the model is certified.

  16. Teacher Models of Technology Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterman, Leinda

    2003-01-01

    Provides examples of best practices in technology integration from five Technology Innovation Challenge Grant (TICG) programs, funded through the Department of Education to meet the No Child Left Behind technology goals. Highlights include professional development activities in Louisiana and New Mexico; collaborative learning applications; and…

  17. Integration of priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems: systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeyi Olusoji

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Objective of the study was to assess the effects of strategies to integrate targeted priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems on patient health outcomes and health system effectiveness and thus to compare integrated and non-integrated health programmes. Methods Systematic review using Cochrane methodology of analysing randomised trials, controlled before-and-after and interrupted time series studies. We defined specific strategies to search PubMed, CENTRAL and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group register, considered studies published from January 1998 until September 2008, and tracked references and citations. Two reviewers independently agreed on eligibility, with an additional arbiter as needed, and extracted information on outcomes: primary (improved health, financial protection, and user satisfaction and secondary (improved population coverage, access to health services, efficiency, and quality using standardised, pre-piloted forms. Two reviewers in the final stage of selection jointly assessed quality of all selected studies using the GRADE criteria. Results Of 8,274 citations identified 12 studies met inclusion criteria. Four studies compared the benefits of Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses in Tanzania and Bangladesh, showing improved care management and higher utilisation of health facilities at no additional cost. Eight studies focused on integrated delivery of mental health and substance abuse services in the United Kingdom and United States of America. Integrated service delivery resulted in better clinical outcomes and greater reduction of substance abuse in specific sub-groups of patients, with no significant difference found overall. Quality of care, patient satisfaction, and treatment engagement were higher in integrated delivery models. Conclusions Targeted priority population health interventions we identified led to improved health

  18. Integration of priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atun, Rifat; de Jongh, Thyra E; Secci, Federica V; Ohiri, Kelechi; Adeyi, Olusoji; Car, Josip

    2011-10-10

    Objective of the study was to assess the effects of strategies to integrate targeted priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems on patient health outcomes and health system effectiveness and thus to compare integrated and non-integrated health programmes. Systematic review using Cochrane methodology of analysing randomised trials, controlled before-and-after and interrupted time series studies. We defined specific strategies to search PubMed, CENTRAL and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group register, considered studies published from January 1998 until September 2008, and tracked references and citations. Two reviewers independently agreed on eligibility, with an additional arbiter as needed, and extracted information on outcomes: primary (improved health, financial protection, and user satisfaction) and secondary (improved population coverage, access to health services, efficiency, and quality) using standardised, pre-piloted forms. Two reviewers in the final stage of selection jointly assessed quality of all selected studies using the GRADE criteria. Of 8,274 citations identified 12 studies met inclusion criteria. Four studies compared the benefits of Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses in Tanzania and Bangladesh, showing improved care management and higher utilisation of health facilities at no additional cost. Eight studies focused on integrated delivery of mental health and substance abuse services in the United Kingdom and United States of America. Integrated service delivery resulted in better clinical outcomes and greater reduction of substance abuse in specific sub-groups of patients, with no significant difference found overall. Quality of care, patient satisfaction, and treatment engagement were higher in integrated delivery models. Targeted priority population health interventions we identified led to improved health outcomes, quality of care, patient satisfaction and access to care

  19. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  20. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  1. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  2. Open source integrated modeling environment Delta Shell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Jagers, B.; van Putten, H.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, integrated modelling has become a very popular topic in environmental modelling since it helps solving problems, which is difficult to model using a single model. However, managing complexity of integrated models and minimizing time required for their setup remains a challenging task. The integrated modelling environment Delta Shell simplifies this task. The software components of Delta Shell are easy to reuse separately from each other as well as a part of integrated environment that can run in a command-line or a graphical user interface mode. The most components of the Delta Shell are developed using C# programming language and include libraries used to define, save and visualize various scientific data structures as well as coupled model configurations. Here we present two examples showing how Delta Shell simplifies process of setting up integrated models from the end user and developer perspectives. The first example shows coupling of a rainfall-runoff, a river flow and a run-time control models. The second example shows how coastal morphological database integrates with the coastal morphological model (XBeach) and a custom nourishment designer. Delta Shell is also available as open-source software released under LGPL license and accessible via http://oss.deltares.nl.

  3. Integrated Spectral Energy Distributions and Absorption Feature Indices of Single Stellar Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Fenghui; Han, Zhanwen; Li, Lifang; Hurley, Jarrod R.

    2004-01-01

    Using evolutionary population synthesis, we present integrated spectral energy distributions and absorption-line indices defined by the Lick Observatory image dissector scanner (referred to as Lick/IDS) system, for an extensive set of instantaneous burst single stellar populations (SSPs). The ages of the SSPs are in the range 1-19 Gyr and the metallicities [Fe/H] are in the range -2.3 - 0.2. Our models use the rapid single stellar evolution algorithm of Hurley, Pols and Tout for the stellar e...

  4. Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

    2017-10-01

    We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

  5. Integrated Space Asset Management Database and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Todd; Gagliano, Larry; Percy, Thomas; Mason, Shane

    2015-01-01

    Effective Space Asset Management is one key to addressing the ever-growing issue of space congestion. It is imperative that agencies around the world have access to data regarding the numerous active assets and pieces of space junk currently tracked in orbit around the Earth. At the center of this issues is the effective management of data of many types related to orbiting objects. As the population of tracked objects grows, so too should the data management structure used to catalog technical specifications, orbital information, and metadata related to those populations. Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Asset Management Database (SAM-D) was implemented in order to effectively catalog a broad set of data related to known objects in space by ingesting information from a variety of database and processing that data into useful technical information. Using the universal NORAD number as a unique identifier, the SAM-D processes two-line element data into orbital characteristics and cross-references this technical data with metadata related to functional status, country of ownership, and application category. The SAM-D began as an Excel spreadsheet and was later upgraded to an Access database. While SAM-D performs its task very well, it is limited by its current platform and is not available outside of the local user base. Further, while modeling and simulation can be powerful tools to exploit the information contained in SAM-D, the current system does not allow proper integration options for combining the data with both legacy and new M&S tools. This paper provides a summary of SAM-D development efforts to date and outlines a proposed data management infrastructure that extends SAM-D to support the larger data sets to be generated. A service-oriented architecture model using an information sharing platform named SIMON will allow it to easily expand to incorporate new capabilities, including advanced analytics, M&S tools, fusion techniques and user interface for

  6. The mercury burden of the Czech population: An integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puklová, Vladimíra; Krsková, Andrea; Cerná, Milena; Cejchanová, Mája; Rehůrková, Irena; Ruprich, Jirí; Kratzer, Karel; Kubínová, Růzena; Zimová, Magdaléna

    2010-07-01

    In this paper an integrated approach in assessment of the population exposure from various sources of total mercury (THg) oral intake in the Czech Republic is presented. The information on total mercury levels in diet, drinking water, surface urban soil and body fluids and tissues stem from the Czech national Environmental Health Monitoring System (EHMS) operated since 1994. The THg concentration was determined by the special atomic absorption spectrophotometer AMA 254. The data on THg content in food from the sales network were collected in 12 cities. The estimated average dietary intake representing more than 95% of weight of usual diet composition ranged 1-2% of the JECFA/FAO WHO provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) value for total mercury (5 microg/kg b.w./week). Data on drinking water quality stem from the nationwide monitoring database. The content of THg in drinking water is generally low; only 0.2% of the Czech population supplied with drinking water from the distribution networks (total of 92% of the population) has a mercury intake from drinking water higher than 1% PTWI and not exceeding 5% PTWI. The estimation of potential mercury intake by unintentional consumption of soil in small children was based on THg content in surface soil of a total of 324 nursery schools in 24 cities and towns. Median value was 0.16 mg/kg. Human biomonitoring was performed in 9 Czech cities. In 2007, the mercury median values in blood of adults (N=412) were 0.85 and 0.89 microg/l in males and in females, respectively; urine median value in adults was 1.10 microg/g creatinine. In 2008, the blood median value in children (N=324) amounted to 0.35 microg/l; urine median value is 0.16 microg/g creatinine. In children's hair the median THg value was 0.18 microg/g. The correlation between fish consumption and blood THg levels was observed in both adults and children. Also the biomonitoring outputs did not reveal a substantial burden of the population. Copyright 2010 Elsevier

  7. Model Identification of Integrated ARMA Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadnytska, Tetiana; Braun, Simone; Werner, Joachim

    2008-01-01

    This article evaluates the Smallest Canonical Correlation Method (SCAN) and the Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function (ESACF), automated methods for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model selection commonly available in current versions of SAS for Windows, as identification tools for integrated processes. SCAN and ESACF can…

  8. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  9. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

  10. Comments to a polar bear population model

    OpenAIRE

    Øritsland, Nils Are

    1985-01-01

    Larsen, T. & Ugland, K. I. (Polar Research 2 n.s., 117-118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case for polar bears. Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar bear biologists. An APL programme for such projections is available.

  11. Inferences from Genomic Models in Stratified Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janss, Luc; de los Campos, Gustavo; Sheehan, Nuala

    2012-01-01

    Unaccounted population stratification can lead to spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and in this context several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. An alternative line of research uses whole-genome random regression (WGRR) models that fit all marker...

  12. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  13. Integrable lattice models and quantum groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleur, H.; Zuber, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    These lectures aim at introducing some basic algebraic concepts on lattice integrable models, in particular quantum groups, and to discuss some connections with knot theory and conformal field theories. The list of contents is: Vertex models and Yang-Baxter equation; Quantum sl(2) algebra and the Yang-Baxter equation; U q sl(2) as a symmetry of statistical mechanical models; Face models; Face models attached to graphs; Yang-Baxter equation, braid group and link polynomials

  14. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

    2005-01-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

  15. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  16. [An integrated theory of natural control of animal populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtfeger, F

    1968-11-01

    Since the twenties of our century, at least 15 theories worth discussing have been developped which intend to explain the causes of natural control of animal populations (for details see SCHWERDTFEGER, 1968). An attempt is made to integrate the different-partly contrary-ideas and new results into a general theory. The basis to start from is the cybernetic principle of feed-back mechanism introduced into population dynamics by WILBERT (1962): an actual value (e.g. the inside temperature of a refrigerator) is permanently changed by perturbances (the always higher outside temperature); through a regulator (a thermostat), each change puts in action a regulating variable (a cooling device) which alters the actual towards the index value (required inside temperature).The often complicated processes that take part in the natural control of populations are summarized in Fig. 6. The actual value is the existing population density (Abundanz). The perturbances primarily causing its fluctuations (Fluktuation) are fertility and immigration which raise the abundance, mortality and emigration which lower it.The amplitude of the fluctuation must be limited, if the population is not to die out or to destroy its habitat by continuous increase. It is determined (Determination) as a sort of index value, the lower limit of which corresponds in the extreme to the minimal density guaranteeing the existence of the population, while the upper limit is formed by the environmental capacity. The latter is determined either by the total supply of requisites and the ability of the animals to use it or by the local minimum of adverse effects. The capacity of the environment and therewith the amplitude of fluctuations can be fixed or variable. It is fixed in a population of Great Tits with territorial behaviour: in an oak stand, the number of breeding pairs cannot be higher than the number of territories fitting in. It is variable in the case of bark beetles living in wind thrown spruce trees

  17. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  18. Ontology modeling in physical asset integrity management

    CERN Document Server

    Yacout, Soumaya

    2015-01-01

    This book presents cutting-edge applications of, and up-to-date research on, ontology engineering techniques in the physical asset integrity domain. Though a survey of state-of-the-art theory and methods on ontology engineering, the authors emphasize essential topics including data integration modeling, knowledge representation, and semantic interpretation. The book also reflects novel topics dealing with the advanced problems of physical asset integrity applications such as heterogeneity, data inconsistency, and interoperability existing in design and utilization. With a distinctive focus on applications relevant in heavy industry, Ontology Modeling in Physical Asset Integrity Management is ideal for practicing industrial and mechanical engineers working in the field, as well as researchers and graduate concerned with ontology engineering in physical systems life cycles. This book also: Introduces practicing engineers, research scientists, and graduate students to ontology engineering as a modeling techniqu...

  19. An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

    2000-08-01

    Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

  20. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  1. Integrating systems biology models and biomedical ontologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoehndorf, Robert; Dumontier, Michel; Gennari, John H; Wimalaratne, Sarala; de Bono, Bernard; Cook, Daniel L; Gkoutos, Georgios V

    2011-08-11

    Systems biology is an approach to biology that emphasizes the structure and dynamic behavior of biological systems and the interactions that occur within them. To succeed, systems biology crucially depends on the accessibility and integration of data across domains and levels of granularity. Biomedical ontologies were developed to facilitate such an integration of data and are often used to annotate biosimulation models in systems biology. We provide a framework to integrate representations of in silico systems biology with those of in vivo biology as described by biomedical ontologies and demonstrate this framework using the Systems Biology Markup Language. We developed the SBML Harvester software that automatically converts annotated SBML models into OWL and we apply our software to those biosimulation models that are contained in the BioModels Database. We utilize the resulting knowledge base for complex biological queries that can bridge levels of granularity, verify models based on the biological phenomenon they represent and provide a means to establish a basic qualitative layer on which to express the semantics of biosimulation models. We establish an information flow between biomedical ontologies and biosimulation models and we demonstrate that the integration of annotated biosimulation models and biomedical ontologies enables the verification of models as well as expressive queries. Establishing a bi-directional information flow between systems biology and biomedical ontologies has the potential to enable large-scale analyses of biological systems that span levels of granularity from molecules to organisms.

  2. Integrated community-based dementia care: the Geriant model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludo Glimmerveen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article gives an in-depth description of the service delivery model of Geriant, a Dutch organization providing community-based care services for people suffering from dementia. Core to its model is the provision of clinical case management, embedded in multidisciplinary dementia care teams. As Geriant's client group includes people from the first presumption of dementia until they can no longer live at home, its care model provides valuable lessons about how different mechanisms of integration are flexibly put to use if the complexity of clients” care needs increases. It showcases how the integration of services for a specific sub-population is combined with alignment of these services with generalist network partners. After a detailed description of the programme and its results, this article builds on the work of Walter Leutz for a conceptual discussion of Geriant's approach to care integration

  3. Use of models in small mammal population studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

  4. Phase transitions in a lattice population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

    2007-01-01

    We introduce a model for a population on a lattice with diffusion and birth/death according to 2A→3A and A→Φ for a particle A. We find that the model displays a phase transition from an active to an absorbing state which is continuous in 1 + 1 dimensions and of first-order in higher dimensions in agreement with the mean field equation. For the (1 + 1)-dimensional case, we examine the critical exponents and a scaling function for the survival probability and show that it belongs to the universality class of directed percolation. In higher dimensions, we look at the first-order phase transition by plotting a histogram of the population density and use the presence of phase coexistence to find an accurate value for the critical point in 2 + 1 dimensions

  5. Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uyterlinde, M.A.

    1994-06-01

    Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs

  6. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  7. Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

    2016-10-01

    Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

  8. Integrated Heat Air & Moisture Modeling and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.W.M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents a recently developed Heat Air & Moisture Laboratory in SimuLink. The simulation laboratory facilitates the integration of the following models: (1) a whole building model; (2) Heating Venting and Air-Conditioning and primary systems; (3) 2D indoor airflow, 3D Heat Air & Moisture

  9. Development of a generalized integral jet model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duijm, Nijs Jan; Kessler, A.; Markert, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Integral type models to describe stationary plumes and jets in cross-flows (wind) have been developed since about 1970. These models are widely used for risk analysis, to describe the consequences of many different scenarios. Alternatively, CFD codes are being applied, but computational requireme......Integral type models to describe stationary plumes and jets in cross-flows (wind) have been developed since about 1970. These models are widely used for risk analysis, to describe the consequences of many different scenarios. Alternatively, CFD codes are being applied, but computational...... requirements still limit the number of scenarios that can be dealt with using CFD only. The integral models, however, are not suited to handle transient releases, such as releases from pressurized equipment, where the initially high release rate decreases rapidly with time. Further, on gas ignition, a second...... model is needed to describe the rapid combustion of the flammable part of the plume (flash fire) and a third model has to be applied for the remaining jet fire. The objective of this paper is to describe the first steps of the development of an integral-type model describing the transient development...

  10. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  11. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  12. Conceptual model of integrated apiarian consultancy

    OpenAIRE

    Bodescu, Dan; Stefan, Gavril; Paveliuc Olariu, Codrin; Magdici, Maria

    2010-01-01

    The socio-economic field researches have indicated the necessity of realizing an integrated consultancy service for beekeepers that will supply technical-economic solutions with a practical character for ensuring the lucrativeness and viability of the apiaries. Consequently, an integrated apiarian consultancy model has been built holding the following features: it realizes the diagnosis of the meliferous resources and supplies solutions for its optimal administration; it realizes the technica...

  13. MMM: A toolbox for integrative structure modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeschke, Gunnar

    2018-01-01

    Structural characterization of proteins and their complexes may require integration of restraints from various experimental techniques. MMM (Multiscale Modeling of Macromolecules) is a Matlab-based open-source modeling toolbox for this purpose with a particular emphasis on distance distribution restraints obtained from electron paramagnetic resonance experiments on spin-labelled proteins and nucleic acids and their combination with atomistic structures of domains or whole protomers, small-angle scattering data, secondary structure information, homology information, and elastic network models. MMM does not only integrate various types of restraints, but also various existing modeling tools by providing a common graphical user interface to them. The types of restraints that can support such modeling and the available model types are illustrated by recent application examples. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  14. Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

    2013-01-01

    Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

  15. Modelling nutritional mutualisms: challenges and opportunities for data integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Teresa J; Friel, Colleen A; Grman, Emily; Shachar-Hill, Yair; Friesen, Maren L

    2017-09-01

    Nutritional mutualisms are ancient, widespread, and profoundly influential in biological communities and ecosystems. Although much is known about these interactions, comprehensive answers to fundamental questions, such as how resource availability and structured interactions influence mutualism persistence, are still lacking. Mathematical modelling of nutritional mutualisms has great potential to facilitate the search for comprehensive answers to these and other fundamental questions by connecting the physiological and genomic underpinnings of mutualisms with ecological and evolutionary processes. In particular, when integrated with empirical data, models enable understanding of underlying mechanisms and generalisation of principles beyond the particulars of a given system. Here, we demonstrate how mathematical models can be integrated with data to address questions of mutualism persistence at four biological scales: cell, individual, population, and community. We highlight select studies where data has been or could be integrated with models to either inform model structure or test model predictions. We also point out opportunities to increase model rigour through tighter integration with data, and describe areas in which data is urgently needed. We focus on plant-microbe systems, for which a wealth of empirical data is available, but the principles and approaches can be generally applied to any nutritional mutualism. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Integrated Modelling - the next steps (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. V.

    2010-12-01

    Integrated modelling (IM) has made considerable advances over the past decade but it has not yet been taken up as an operational tool in the way that its proponents had hoped. The reasons why will be discussed in Session U17. This talk will propose topics for a research and development programme and suggest an institutional structure which, together, could overcome the present obstacles. Their combined aim would be first to make IM into an operational tool useable by competent public authorities and commercial companies and, in time, to see it evolve into the modelling equivalent of Google Maps, something accessible and useable by anyone with a PC or an iphone and an internet connection. In a recent study, a number of government agencies, water authorities and utilities applied integrated modelling to operational problems. While the project demonstrated that IM could be used in an operational setting and had benefit, it also highlighted the advances that would be required for its widespread uptake. These were: greatly improving the ease with which models could be a) made linkable, b) linked and c) run; developing a methodology for applying integrated modelling; developing practical options for calibrating and validating linked models; addressing the science issues that arise when models are linked; extending the range of modelling concepts that can be linked; enabling interface standards to pass uncertainty information; making the interface standards platform independent; extending the range of platforms to include those for high performance computing; developing the concept of modelling components as web services; separating simulation code from the model’s GUI, so that all the results from the linked models can be viewed through a single GUI; developing scenario management systems so that that there is an audit trail of the version of each model and dataset used in each linked model run. In addition to the above, there is a need to build a set of integrated

  17. Integrated facilities modeling using QUEST and IGRIP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, K.R.; Haan, E.R.

    1995-01-01

    A QUEST model and associated detailed IGRIP models were developed and used to simulate several workcells in a proposed Plutonium Storage Facility (PSF). The models are being used by team members assigned to the program to improve communication and to assist in evaluating concepts and in performing trade-off studies which will result in recommendations and a final design. The model was designed so that it could be changed easily. The added flexibility techniques used to make changes easily are described in this paper in addition to techniques for integrating the QUEST and IGRIP products. Many of these techniques are generic in nature and can be applied to any modeling endeavor

  18. Vortex Lattice UXO Mobility Model Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    law , no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB...predictions of the fate and transport of a broad-field UXO population are extremely sensitive to the initial state of that population, specifically: the...limit the model’s computational domain. This revised model software was built on the concept of interconnected geomorphic control cells consisting of

  19. Integrated modelling of two xenobiotic organic compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Gernaey, K.V.; Henze, Mogens

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model that describes the fate and transport of two selected xenobiotic organic compounds (XOCs) in a simplified representation. of an integrated urban wastewater system. A simulation study, where the xenobiotics bisphenol A and pyrene are used as reference...... compounds, is carried out. Sorption and specific biological degradation processes are integrated with standardised water process models to model the fate of both compounds. Simulated mass flows of the two compounds during one dry weather day and one wet weather day are compared for realistic influent flow...... rate and concentration profiles. The wet weather day induces resuspension of stored sediments, which increases the pollutant load on the downstream system. The potential of the model to elucidate important phenomena related to origin and fate of the model compounds is demonstrated....

  20. An integrative model of organizational safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Lin; Fan, Di; Fu, Gui; Zhu, Cherrie Jiuhua

    2013-06-01

    This study develops an integrative model of safety management based on social cognitive theory and the total safety culture triadic framework. The purpose of the model is to reveal the causal linkages between a hazardous environment, safety climate, and individual safety behaviors. Based on primary survey data from 209 front-line workers in one of the largest state-owned coal mining corporations in China, the model is tested using structural equation modeling techniques. An employee's perception of a hazardous environment is found to have a statistically significant impact on employee safety behaviors through a psychological process mediated by the perception of management commitment to safety and individual beliefs about safety. The integrative model developed here leads to a comprehensive solution that takes into consideration the environmental, organizational and employees' psychological and behavioral aspects of safety management. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modern model of integrated corporate communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Slijepčević

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present the modern model of integrated corporate communication. Beside this, the authors will describe the changes occurring in the corporate environment and importance of changing the model of corporate communication. This paper also discusses the importance of implementation of the suggested model, the use of new media and effects of these changes on corporations. The approach used in this paper is the literature review. The authors explore the importance of implementation of the suggested model and the new media in corporate communication, both internal and external, addressing all the stakeholders and communication contents. The paper recommends implementation of a modern model of integrated corporate communication as a response to constant development of the new media and generation changes taking place. Practical implications: the modern model of integrated corporate communication can be used as an upgrade of the conventional communication models. This modern model empowers companies to sustain and build up the existing relationships with stakeholders, and to find out and create new relationships with stakeholders who were previously inaccessible and invisible.

  2. Integrative inference of population history in the Ibero-Maghrebian endemic Pleurodeles waltl (Salamandridae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Jorge; Barbosa, A Márcia; Martínez-Solano, Íñigo

    2017-07-01

    Inference of population histories from the molecular signatures of past demographic processes is challenging, but recent methodological advances in species distribution models and their integration in time-calibrated phylogeographic studies allow detailed reconstruction of complex biogeographic scenarios. We apply an integrative approach to infer the evolutionary history of the Iberian ribbed newt (Pleurodeles waltl), an Ibero-Maghrebian endemic with populations north and south of the Strait of Gibraltar. We analyzed an extensive multilocus dataset (mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences and ten polymorphic microsatellite loci) and found a deep east-west phylogeographic break in Iberian populations dating back to the Plio-Pleistocene. This break is inferred to result from vicariance associated with the formation of the Guadalquivir river basin. In contrast with previous studies, North African populations showed exclusive mtDNA haplotypes, and formed a monophyletic clade within the Eastern Iberian lineage in the mtDNA genealogy. On the other hand, microsatellites failed to recover Moroccan populations as a differentiated genetic cluster. This is interpreted to result from post-divergence gene flow based on the results of IMA2 and Migrate analyses. Thus, Moroccan populations would have originated after overseas dispersal from the Iberian Peninsula in the Pleistocene, with subsequent gene flow in more recent times, implying at least two trans-marine dispersal events. We modeled the distribution of the species and of each lineage, and projected these models back in time to infer climatically favourable areas during the mid-Holocene, the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial (LIG), to reconstruct more recent population dynamics. We found minor differences in climatic favourability across lineages, suggesting intraspecific niche conservatism. Genetic diversity was significantly correlated with the intersection of environmental favourability in the LIG and

  3. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  4. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EDENBURN, MICHAEL W.; BUNTING, MARCUS; PAYNE, ARTHUR C. JR.; TROST, LAWRENCE C.

    2000-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0

  5. Renewed mer model of integral management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janko Belak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The research work on entrepreneurship, enterprise's policy and management, which started in 1992, successfully continued in the following years. Between 1992 and 2011, more than 400 academics and other researchers have participated in research work (MER research program whose main orientation has been the creation of their own model of integral management. Results: In past years, academics (researchers and authors of published papers from Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Byelorussia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the US have cooperated in MER programs, coming from more than fifty institutions. Thus, scientific doctrines of different universities influenced the development of the MER model which is based on both horizontal and vertical integration of the enterprises' governance and management processes, instruments and institutions into a consistently operating unit. Conclusions: The presented MER model is based on the multi-layer integration of governance and management with an enterprise and its environment, considering the fundamental desires for the enterprises' existence and, thus, their quantitative as well as qualitative changes. The process, instrumental, and institutional integrity of the governance and management is also the initial condition for the implementation of all other integration factors.

  6. Integrated Model of Bioenergy and Agriculture System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigurjonsson, Hafthor Ægir; Elmegaard, Brian; Clausen, Lasse Røngaard

    2015-01-01

    Due to increased burden on the environment caused by human activities, focus on industrial ecology designs are gaining more attention. In that perspective an environ- mentally effective integration of bionergy and agriculture systems has significant potential. This work introduces a modeling...... of the overall model. C- TOOL and Yasso07 are used in the carbon balance of agri- culture, Dynamic Network Analysis is used for the energy simulation and Brightway2 is used to build a Life Cycle Inventory compatible database and processes it for vari- ous impacts assessment methods. The model is success- fully...... approach that builds on Life Cycle Inventory and carries out Life Cycle Impact Assessment for a con- sequential Life Cycle Assessment on integrated bioenergy and agriculture systems. The model framework is built in Python which connects various freely available soft- ware that handle different aspects...

  7. Towards an integrated model of international migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas S. MASSEY

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Demographers have yet to develop a suitable integrated model of international migration and consequently have been very poor at forecasting immigration. This paper outlines the basic elements of an integrated model and surveys recent history to suggest the key challenges to model construction. A comprehensive theory must explain the structural forces that create a supply of people prone to migrate internationally, the structural origins of labour demand in receiving countries, the motivations of those who respond to these forces by choosing to migrate internationally, the growth and structure of transnational networks that arise to support international movement, the behaviour states in response to immigrant flows, and the influence of state actions on the behaviour of migrants. Recent history suggests that a good model needs to respect the salience of markets, recognize the circularity of migrant flows, appreciate the power of feedback effects, and be alert unanticipated consequences of policy actions.

  8. Quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagi, Junya

    2015-01-01

    We discuss connections between certain classes of supersymmetric quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models from the point of view of topological quantum field theories (TQFTs). The relevant classes include 4d N=1 theories known as brane box and brane tilling models, 3d N=2 and 2d N=(2,2) theories obtained from them by compactification, and 2d N=(0,2) theories closely related to these theories. We argue that their supersymmetric indices carry structures of TQFTs equipped with line operators, and as a consequence, are equal to the partition functions of lattice models. The integrability of these models follows from the existence of extra dimension in the TQFTs, which emerges after the theories are embedded in M-theory. The Yang-Baxter equation expresses the invariance of supersymmetric indices under Seiberg duality and its lower-dimensional analogs.

  9. Which coordinate system for modelling path integration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickerstaff, Robert J; Cheung, Allen

    2010-03-21

    Path integration is a navigation strategy widely observed in nature where an animal maintains a running estimate, called the home vector, of its location during an excursion. Evidence suggests it is both ancient and ubiquitous in nature, and has been studied for over a century. In that time, canonical and neural network models have flourished, based on a wide range of assumptions, justifications and supporting data. Despite the importance of the phenomenon, consensus and unifying principles appear lacking. A fundamental issue is the neural representation of space needed for biological path integration. This paper presents a scheme to classify path integration systems on the basis of the way the home vector records and updates the spatial relationship between the animal and its home location. Four extended classes of coordinate systems are used to unify and review both canonical and neural network models of path integration, from the arthropod and mammalian literature. This scheme demonstrates analytical equivalence between models which may otherwise appear unrelated, and distinguishes between models which may superficially appear similar. A thorough analysis is carried out of the equational forms of important facets of path integration including updating, steering, searching and systematic errors, using each of the four coordinate systems. The type of available directional cue, namely allothetic or idiothetic, is also considered. It is shown that on balance, the class of home vectors which includes the geocentric Cartesian coordinate system, appears to be the most robust for biological systems. A key conclusion is that deducing computational structure from behavioural data alone will be difficult or impossible, at least in the absence of an analysis of random errors. Consequently it is likely that further theoretical insights into path integration will require an in-depth study of the effect of noise on the four classes of home vectors. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd

  10. Topological matter, integrable models and fusion rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemeschansky, D.; Warner, N.P.

    1992-01-01

    We show how topological G k /G k models can be embedded into the topological matter models that are obtained by perturbing the twisted N = 2 supersymmetric, hermitian symmetric, coset models. In particular, this leads to an embedding of the fusion ring of G as a sub-ring of the perturbed, chiral primary ring. The perturbation of the twisted N = 2 model that leads to the fusion ring is also shown to lead to an integrable N = 2 supersymmetric field theory when the untwisted N = 2 superconformal field theory is perturbed by the same operator and its hermitian conjugate. (orig.)

  11. Population matrix models and palm resource management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available MATRICES DE POPULATIONS ET MISE EN VALEUR DES PALMIERS. Au cours des 20 dernières années, les structures de population de nombreuses espèces de palmiers ont été décrites et discutées. La croissance et la stabilité des populations ont été analysées à l’aide de matrices. Dans cet article, nous reprenons un modèle et en discutons les aspects méthodologiques en vue d’une estimation des paramètres de l’histoire de la vie des palmiers. Les généralisations résultant de précédentes études sont présentées et les conséquences pour la mise en valeur des palmiers, concernant en particulier la confection de toitures, les fruits, la récolte des stipes, sont discutées. MATRICES DE POBLACIONES Y MANEJO DE PALMERAS. En los últimos 20 años, las estructuras de población de numerosas especies de palmeras han sido descritas y discutidas. El crecimiento y la estabilidad de las poblaciones han sido analizadas, utilizando matrices. En el presente artículo, presentamos un modelo y discutimos los aspectos metodológicos específicos para hacer una estimación de los parámetros de la historia de la vida de las palmeras. Son presentadas las generalizaciones diseñadas por estudios previos, y discutidas las implicancias en el manejo de las palmeras, en cuanto a techado, frutas, cosecha de los estípites. Population structures of numerous palm species have been described and discussed in the last 20 years. Population growth and stability have been analyzed with matrix models. In this paper we review matrix models and discuss methodological issues specific to estimating palm life history parameters. Generalizations drawn from previous studies are presented and implications for palm resource management, specifically for thatch, fruit, and stem harvest, are discussed.

  12. Towards an Integrative Model of Knowledge Transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turcan, Romeo V.; Heslop, Ben

    This paper aims to contribute towards the advancement of an efficient architecture of a single market for knowledge through the development of an integrative model of knowledge transfer. Within this aim, several points of departure can be singled out. One, the article builds on the call of the Eu......This paper aims to contribute towards the advancement of an efficient architecture of a single market for knowledge through the development of an integrative model of knowledge transfer. Within this aim, several points of departure can be singled out. One, the article builds on the call...... business and academia, and implementing the respective legislature are enduring. The research objectives were to explore (i) the process of knowledge transfer in universities, including the nature of tensions, obstacles and incentives, (ii) the relationships between key stakeholders in the KT market...... of the emergent integrative model of knowledge transfer. In an attempt to bring it to a higher level of generalizability, the integrative model of KT is further conceptualized from a ‘sociology of markets’ perspective resulting in an emergent architecture of a single market for knowledge. Future research...

  13. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  14. Accurate Electromagnetic Modeling Methods for Integrated Circuits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheng, Z.

    2010-01-01

    The present development of modern integrated circuits (IC’s) is characterized by a number of critical factors that make their design and verification considerably more difficult than before. This dissertation addresses the important questions of modeling all electromagnetic behavior of features on

  15. Rethinking School Bullying: Towards an Integrated Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Roz; Smith, Peter K.

    2011-01-01

    What would make anti-bullying initiatives more successful? This book offers a new approach to the problem of school bullying. The question of what constitutes a useful theory of bullying is considered and suggestions are made as to how priorities for future research might be identified. The integrated, systemic model of school bullying introduced…

  16. Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Aamir, Munaf Syed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beyeler, Walter E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fellner, Karen Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeffers, Robert Fredric [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silver, Emily [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Villa, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vugrin, Eric D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engelke, Peter [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Burrow, Mat [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Keith, Bruce [United States Military Academy, West Point, NY (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on

  17. Nonlinear integral equations for the sausage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Changrim; Balog, Janos; Ravanini, Francesco

    2017-08-01

    The sausage model, first proposed by Fateev, Onofri, and Zamolodchikov, is a deformation of the O(3) sigma model preserving integrability. The target space is deformed from the sphere to ‘sausage’ shape by a deformation parameter ν. This model is defined by a factorizable S-matrix which is obtained by deforming that of the O(3) sigma model by a parameter λ. Clues for the deformed sigma model are provided by various UV and IR information through the thermodynamic Bethe ansatz (TBA) analysis based on the S-matrix. Application of TBA to the sausage model is, however, limited to the case of 1/λ integer where the coupled integral equations can be truncated to a finite number. In this paper, we propose a finite set of nonlinear integral equations (NLIEs), which are applicable to generic value of λ. Our derivation is based on T-Q relations extracted from the truncated TBA equations. For a consistency check, we compute next-leading order corrections of the vacuum energy and extract the S-matrix information in the IR limit. We also solved the NLIE both analytically and numerically in the UV limit to get the effective central charge and compared with that of the zero-mode dynamics to obtain exact relation between ν and λ. Dedicated to the memory of Petr Petrovich Kulish.

  18. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  19. Mass generation in perturbed massless integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Controzzi, D.; Mussardo, G.

    2005-01-01

    We extend form-factor perturbation theory to non-integrable deformations of massless integrable models, in order to address the problem of mass generation in such systems. With respect to the standard renormalisation group analysis this approach is more suitable for studying the particle content of the perturbed theory. Analogously to the massive case, interesting information can be obtained already at first order, such as the identification of the operators which create a mass gap and those which induce the confinement of the massless particles in the perturbed theory

  20. Paradox of integration-A computational model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, Małgorzata J.; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2017-02-01

    The paradoxical aspect of integration of a social group has been highlighted by Blau (1964). During the integration process, the group members simultaneously compete for social status and play the role of the audience. Here we show that when the competition prevails over the desire of approval, a sharp transition breaks all friendly relations. However, as was described by Blau, people with high status are inclined to bother more with acceptance of others; this is achieved by praising others and revealing her/his own weak points. In our model, this action smooths the transition and improves interpersonal relations.

  1. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  2. COGMIR: A computer model for knowledge integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Z.X.

    1988-01-01

    This dissertation explores some aspects of knowledge integration, namely, accumulation of scientific knowledge and performing analogical reasoning on the acquired knowledge. Knowledge to be integrated is conveyed by paragraph-like pieces referred to as documents. By incorporating some results from cognitive science, the Deutsch-Kraft model of information retrieval is extended to a model for knowledge engineering, which integrates acquired knowledge and performs intelligent retrieval. The resulting computer model is termed COGMIR, which stands for a COGnitive Model for Intelligent Retrieval. A scheme, named query invoked memory reorganization, is used in COGMIR for knowledge integration. Unlike some other schemes which realize knowledge integration through subjective understanding by representing new knowledge in terms of existing knowledge, the proposed scheme suggests at storage time only recording the possible connection of knowledge acquired from different documents. The actual binding of the knowledge acquired from different documents is deferred to query time. There is only one way to store knowledge and numerous ways to utilize the knowledge. Each document can be represented as a whole as well as its meaning. In addition, since facts are constructed from the documents, document retrieval and fact retrieval are treated in a unified way. When the requested knowledge is not available, query invoked memory reorganization can generate suggestion based on available knowledge through analogical reasoning. This is done by revising the algorithms developed for document retrieval and fact retrieval, and by incorporating Gentner's structure mapping theory. Analogical reasoning is treated as a natural extension of intelligent retrieval, so that two previously separate research areas are combined. A case study is provided. All the components are implemented as list structures similar to relational data-bases.

  3. Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

    1993-01-01

    Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

  4. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  5. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  6. CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenburn, M.W.; Bunting, M.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1997-10-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia`s Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, top-level, modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM`s unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection) and location accuracy of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system`s performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. This report describes version 1.2 of IVSEM.

  7. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  8. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  9. Edaphic history over seedling characters predicts integration and plasticity of integration across geologically variable populations of Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Elsa A; Murren, Courtney J

    2017-12-01

    Studies on phenotypic plasticity and plasticity of integration have uncovered functionally linked modules of aboveground traits and seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana , but we lack details about belowground variation in adult plants. Functional modules can be comprised of additional suites of traits that respond to environmental variation. We assessed whether shoot and root responses to nutrient environments in adult A. thaliana were predictable from seedling traits or population-specific geologic soil characteristics at the site of origin. We compared 17 natural accessions from across the native range of A. thaliana using 14-day-old seedlings grown on agar or sand and plants grown to maturity across nutrient treatments in sand. We measured aboveground size, reproduction, timing traits, root length, and root diameter. Edaphic characteristics were obtained from a global-scale dataset and related to field data. We detected significant among-population variation in root traits of seedlings and adults and in plasticity in aboveground and belowground traits of adult plants. Phenotypic integration of roots and shoots varied by population and environment. Relative integration was greater in roots than in shoots, and integration was predicted by edaphic soil history, particularly organic carbon content, whereas seedling traits did not predict later ontogenetic stages. Soil environment of origin has significant effects on phenotypic plasticity in response to nutrients, and on phenotypic integration of root modules and shoot modules. Root traits varied among populations in reproductively mature individuals, indicating potential for adaptive and integrated functional responses of root systems in annuals. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  10. Pedagogic process modeling: Humanistic-integrative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boritko Nikolaj M.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with some current problems of modeling the dynamics of the subject-features development of the individual. The term "process" is considered in the context of the humanistic-integrative approach, in which the principles of self education are regarded as criteria for efficient pedagogic activity. Four basic characteristics of the pedagogic process are pointed out: intentionality reflects logicality and regularity of the development of the process; discreteness (stageability in dicates qualitative stages through which the pedagogic phenomenon passes; nonlinearity explains the crisis character of pedagogic processes and reveals inner factors of self-development; situationality requires a selection of pedagogic conditions in accordance with the inner factors, which would enable steering the pedagogic process. Offered are two steps for singling out a particular stage and the algorithm for developing an integrative model for it. The suggested conclusions might be of use for further theoretic research, analyses of educational practices and for realistic predicting of pedagogical phenomena. .

  11. Site descriptive modelling - strategy for integrated evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan

    2003-02-01

    The current document establishes the strategy to be used for achieving sufficient integration between disciplines in producing Site Descriptive Models during the Site Investigation stage. The Site Descriptive Model should be a multidisciplinary interpretation of geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, transport properties and ecosystems using site investigation data from deep bore holes and from the surface as input. The modelling comprise the following iterative steps, evaluation of primary data, descriptive and quantitative modelling (in 3D), overall confidence evaluation. Data are first evaluated within each discipline and then the evaluations are checked between the disciplines. Three-dimensional modelling (i.e. estimating the distribution of parameter values in space and its uncertainty) is made in a sequence, where the geometrical framework is taken from the geological model and in turn used by the rock mechanics, thermal and hydrogeological modelling etc. The three-dimensional description should present the parameters with their spatial variability over a relevant and specified scale, with the uncertainty included in this description. Different alternative descriptions may be required. After the individual discipline modelling and uncertainty assessment a phase of overall confidence evaluation follows. Relevant parts of the different modelling teams assess the suggested uncertainties and evaluate the feedback. These discussions should assess overall confidence by, checking that all relevant data are used, checking that information in past model versions is considered, checking that the different kinds of uncertainty are addressed, checking if suggested alternatives make sense and if there is potential for additional alternatives, and by discussing, if appropriate, how additional measurements (i.e. more data) would affect confidence. The findings as well as the modelling results are to be documented in a Site Description

  12. SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krysanova, V; Wechsung, F; Arnold, J; Srinivasan, R; Williams, J

    2000-12-01

    The model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was developed in order to provide a comprehensive GIS-based tool for hydrological and water quality modelling in mesoscale and large river basins (from 100 to 10,000 km{sup 2}), which can be parameterised using regionally available information. The model was developed for the use mainly in Europe and temperate zone, though its application in other regions is possible as well. SWIM is based on two previously developed tools - SWAT and MATSALU (see more explanations in section 1.1). The model integrates hydrology, vegetation, erosion, and nutrient dynamics at the watershed scale. SWIM has a three-level disaggregation scheme 'basin - sub-basins - hydrotopes' and is coupled to the Geographic Information System GRASS (GRASS, 1993). A robust approach is suggested for the nitrogen and phosphorus modelling in mesoscale watersheds. SWIM runs under the UNIX environment. Model test and validation were performed sequentially for hydrology, crop growth, nitrogen and erosion in a number of mesoscale watersheds in the German part of the Elbe drainage basin. A comprehensive scheme of spatial disaggregation into sub-basins and hydrotopes combined with reasonable restriction on a sub-basin area allows performing the assessment of water resources and water quality with SWIM in mesoscale river basins. The modest data requirements represent an important advantage of the model. Direct connection to land use and climate data provides a possibility to use the model for analysis of climate change and land use change impacts on hydrology, agricultural production, and water quality. (orig.)

  13. Integrated Model for E-Learning Acceptance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadiani; Rodziah, A.; Hasan, S. M.; Rusli, A.; Noraini, C.

    2016-01-01

    E-learning is not going to work if the system is not used in accordance with user needs. User Interface is very important to encourage using the application. Many theories had discuss about user interface usability evaluation and technology acceptance separately, actually why we do not make it correlation between interface usability evaluation and user acceptance to enhance e-learning process. Therefore, the evaluation model for e-learning interface acceptance is considered important to investigate. The aim of this study is to propose the integrated e-learning user interface acceptance evaluation model. This model was combined some theories of e-learning interface measurement such as, user learning style, usability evaluation, and the user benefit. We formulated in constructive questionnaires which were shared at 125 English Language School (ELS) students. This research statistics used Structural Equation Model using LISREL v8.80 and MANOVA analysis.

  14. An Integrative Model of Internationalization Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Gammelgaard, Jens

    2014-01-01

    – The OLI and the UIP models fail to include corporate entrepreneurship and managerial psychology in their analyses. We suggest that regulatory focus theory unifies the managerial strategic choice between position logic and opportunity logic. In addition, host country institutions affect this managerial......Purpose – This paper aims to critically review the ownership, location and internalization (OLI) model and the Uppsala internationalization process (UIP) framework. We suggest that the inclusion of concepts such as corporate entrepreneurship, host country institutions and regulatory focus...... in an integrated framework helps to explain firm internationalization. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a review of the literature on the OLI and UIP models. In addition, it presents a conceptual model that encompasses corporate entrepreneurship, regulatory focus and institutions. Findings...

  15. The Gold Coast Integrated Care Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Connor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article outlines the development of the Australian Gold Coast Integrated Care Model based on the elements identified in contemporary research literature as essential for successful integration of care between primary care, and acute hospital services. The objectives of the model are to proactively manage high risk patients with complex and chronic conditions in collaboration with General Practitioners to ultimately reduce presentations to the health service emergency department, improve the capacity of specialist outpatients, and decrease planned and unplanned admission rates. Central to the model is a shared care record which is maintained and accessed by staff in the Coordination Centre. We provide a process map outlining the care protocols from initial assessment to care of the patient presenting for emergency care. The model is being evaluated over a pilot three year proof of concept phase to determine economic and process perspectives. If found to be cost-effective, acceptable to patients and professionals and as good as or better than usual care in terms of outcomes, the strategic intent is to scale the programme beyond the local health service.

  16. Typological and Integrative Models of Sexual Abuse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demidova L.Y.,

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We discuss the basic typological and integrative theoretical models that explain the occurrence of child sexual abuse and the differences detected among the perpetrators of crimes against sexual integrity of minors. A comprehensive review of the theoretical concepts of sexual abuse in our country, in fact has not been carried out, and in this paper for the first time we made such an attempt. It is shown that the existing notions of sexual abuse largely overlap each other, but each of the models somehow takes into account the factors not explicitly addressed in other concepts. Systematic consideration of the theoretical models of sexual abuse can generalize and systematize the available data on the mechanisms of pedophile behavior. This review provides an opportunity to develop a new benchmark in the study of sexual abuse, get closer to building the most accurate and comprehensive model. In turn, this may contribute to solving the questions about the factors, dynamics, and the prevention of criminal sexual conduct against children

  17. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  18. Integrated identification, modeling and control with applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Guojun

    This thesis deals with the integration of system design, identification, modeling and control. In particular, six interdisciplinary engineering problems are addressed and investigated. Theoretical results are established and applied to structural vibration reduction and engine control problems. First, the data-based LQG control problem is formulated and solved. It is shown that a state space model is not necessary to solve this problem; rather a finite sequence from the impulse response is the only model data required to synthesize an optimal controller. The new theory avoids unnecessary reliance on a model, required in the conventional design procedure. The infinite horizon model predictive control problem is addressed for multivariable systems. The basic properties of the receding horizon implementation strategy is investigated and the complete framework for solving the problem is established. The new theory allows the accommodation of hard input constraints and time delays. The developed control algorithms guarantee the closed loop stability. A closed loop identification and infinite horizon model predictive control design procedure is established for engine speed regulation. The developed algorithms are tested on the Cummins Engine Simulator and desired results are obtained. A finite signal-to-noise ratio model is considered for noise signals. An information quality index is introduced which measures the essential information precision required for stabilization. The problems of minimum variance control and covariance control are formulated and investigated. Convergent algorithms are developed for solving the problems of interest. The problem of the integrated passive and active control design is addressed in order to improve the overall system performance. A design algorithm is developed, which simultaneously finds: (i) the optimal values of the stiffness and damping ratios for the structure, and (ii) an optimal output variance constrained stabilizing

  19. Vertically Integrated Models for Carbon Storage Modeling in Heterogeneous Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical modeling is an essential tool for studying the impacts of geologic carbon storage (GCS). Injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) into deep saline aquifers leads to multi-phase flow (injected CO2 and resident brine), which can be described by a set of three-dimensional governing equations, including mass-balance equation, volumetric flux equations (modified Darcy), and constitutive equations. This is the modeling approach on which commonly used reservoir simulators such as TOUGH2 are based. Due to the large density difference between CO2 and brine, GCS models can often be simplified by assuming buoyant segregation and integrating the three-dimensional governing equations in the vertical direction. The integration leads to a set of two-dimensional equations coupled with reconstruction operators for vertical profiles of saturation and pressure. Vertically-integrated approaches have been shown to give results of comparable quality as three-dimensional reservoir simulators when applied to realistic CO2 injection sites such as the upper sand wedge at the Sleipner site. However, vertically-integrated approaches usually rely on homogeneous properties over the thickness of a geologic layer. Here, we investigate the impact of general (vertical and horizontal) heterogeneity in intrinsic permeability, relative permeability functions, and capillary pressure functions. We consider formations involving complex fluvial deposition environments and compare the performance of vertically-integrated models to full three-dimensional models for a set of hypothetical test cases consisting of high permeability channels (streams) embedded in a low permeability background (floodplains). The domains are randomly generated assuming that stream channels can be represented by sinusoidal waves in the plan-view and by parabolas for the streams' cross-sections. Stream parameters such as width, thickness and wavelength are based on values found at the Ketzin site in Germany. Results from the

  20. Testing an integral conceptual model of frailty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobbens, Robbert J; van Assen, Marcel A; Luijkx, Katrien G; Schols, Jos M

    2012-09-01

    This paper is a report of a study conducted to test three hypotheses derived from an integral conceptual model of frailty.   The integral model of frailty describes the pathway from life-course determinants to frailty to adverse outcomes. The model assumes that life-course determinants and the three domains of frailty (physical, psychological, social) affect adverse outcomes, the effect of disease(s) on adverse outcomes is mediated by frailty, and the effect of frailty on adverse outcomes depends on the life-course determinants. In June 2008 a questionnaire was sent to a sample of community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older (n = 213). Life-course determinants and frailty were assessed using the Tilburg frailty indicator. Adverse outcomes were measured using the Groningen activity restriction scale, the WHOQOL-BREF and questions regarding healthcare utilization. The effect of seven self-reported chronic diseases was examined. Life-course determinants, chronic disease(s), and frailty together explain a moderate to large part of the variance of the seven continuous adverse outcomes (26-57%). All these predictors together explained a significant part of each of the five dichotomous adverse outcomes. The effect of chronic disease(s) on all 12 adverse outcomes was mediated at least partly by frailty. The effect of frailty domains on adverse outcomes did not depend on life-course determinants. Our finding that the adverse outcomes are differently and uniquely affected by the three domains of frailty (physical, psychological, social), and life-course determinants and disease(s), emphasizes the importance of an integral conceptual model of frailty. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Hypnosis, suggestion, and suggestibility: an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Steven Jay; Laurence, Jean-Roch; Kirsch, Irving

    2015-01-01

    This article elucidates an integrative model of hypnosis that integrates social, cultural, cognitive, and neurophysiological variables at play both in and out of hypnosis and considers their dynamic interaction as determinants of the multifaceted experience of hypnosis. The roles of these variables are examined in the induction and suggestion stages of hypnosis, including how they are related to the experience of involuntariness, one of the hallmarks of hypnosis. It is suggested that studies of the modification of hypnotic suggestibility; cognitive flexibility; response sets and expectancies; the default-mode network; and the search for the neurophysiological correlates of hypnosis, more broadly, in conjunction with research on social psychological variables, hold much promise to further understanding of hypnosis.

  2. A watershed model to integrate EO data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauch, Eduardo; Chambel-Leitao, Pedro; Carina, Almeida; Brito, David; Cherif, Ines; Alexandridis, Thomas; Neves, Ramiro

    2013-04-01

    MOHID LAND is a open source watershed model developed by MARETEC and is part of the MOHID Framework. It integrates four mediums (or compartments): porous media, surface, rivers and atmosphere. The movement of water between these mediums are based on mass and momentum balance equations. The atmosphere medium is not explicity simulated. Instead, it's used as boundary condition to the model through meteorological properties: precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed/direction, relative humidity and air temperature. The surface medium includes the overland runoff and vegetation growth processes and is simulated using a 2D grid. The porous media includes both the unsaturated (soil) and saturated zones (aquifer) and is simulated using a 3D grid. The river flow is simulated through a 1D drainage network. All these mediums are linked through evapotranspiration and flow exchanges (infiltration, river-soil growndwater flow, surface-river overland flow). Besides the water movement, it is also possible to simulate water quality processes and solute/sediment transport. Model setup include the definition of the geometry and the properties of each one of its compartments. After the setup of the model, the only continuous input data that MOHID LAND requires are the atmosphere properties (boundary conditions) that can be provided as timeseries or spacial data. MOHID LAND has been adapted the last 4 years under FP7 and ESA projects to integrate Earth Observation (EO) data, both variable in time and in space. EO data can be used to calibrate/validate or as input/assimilation data to the model. The currently EO data used include LULC (Land Use Land Cover) maps, LAI (Leaf Area Index) maps, EVTP (Evapotranspiration) maps and SWC (Soil Water Content) maps. Model results are improved by the EO data, but the advantage of this integration is that the model can still run without the EO data. This means that model do not stop due to unavailability of EO data and can run on a forecast mode

  3. A model of interval timing by neural integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simen, Patrick; Balci, Fuat; de Souza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D; Holmes, Philip

    2011-06-22

    We show that simple assumptions about neural processing lead to a model of interval timing as a temporal integration process, in which a noisy firing-rate representation of time rises linearly on average toward a response threshold over the course of an interval. Our assumptions include: that neural spike trains are approximately independent Poisson processes, that correlations among them can be largely cancelled by balancing excitation and inhibition, that neural populations can act as integrators, and that the objective of timed behavior is maximal accuracy and minimal variance. The model accounts for a variety of physiological and behavioral findings in rodents, monkeys, and humans, including ramping firing rates between the onset of reward-predicting cues and the receipt of delayed rewards, and universally scale-invariant response time distributions in interval timing tasks. It furthermore makes specific, well-supported predictions about the skewness of these distributions, a feature of timing data that is usually ignored. The model also incorporates a rapid (potentially one-shot) duration-learning procedure. Human behavioral data support the learning rule's predictions regarding learning speed in sequences of timed responses. These results suggest that simple, integration-based models should play as prominent a role in interval timing theory as they do in theories of perceptual decision making, and that a common neural mechanism may underlie both types of behavior.

  4. Integrated Bali Cattle Development Model Under Oil Palm Plantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasali Hakim Matondang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Bali cattle have several advantages such as high fertility and carcass percentage, easy adaptation to the new environment as well. Bali cattle productivity has not been optimal yet. This is due to one of the limitation of feed resources, decreasing of grazing and agricultural land. The aim of this paper is to describe Bali cattle development integrated with oil palm plantations, which is expected to improve productivity and increase Bali cattle population. This integration model is carried out by raising Bali cattle under oil palm plantation through nucleus estate scheme model or individual farmers estates business. Some of Bali cattle raising systems have been applied in the integration of palm plantation-Bali cattle. One of the intensive systems can increase daily weight gain of 0.8 kg/head, calfcrop of 35% per year and has the potency for industrial development of feed and organic fertilizer. In the semi-intensive system, it can improve the production of oil palm fruit bunches (PFB more than 10%, increase harvested-crop area to 15 ha/farmer and reduce the amount of inorganic fertilizer. The extensive system can produce calfcrop ³70%, improve ³30% of PFB, increase business scale ³13 cows/farmer and reduce weeding costs ³16%. Integrated Bali cattle development may provide positive added value for both, palm oil business and cattle business.

  5. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  6. Designing a framework to design a business model for the 'bottom of the pyramid' population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ver loren van Themaat, Tanye; Schutte, Cornelius S.L.; Lutters, Diederick

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a framework for developing and designing a business model to target the bottom of the pyramid (BoP) population. Using blue ocean strategy and business model literature, integrated with research on the BoP, the framework offers a systematic approach for organisations to analyse

  7. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  8. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  9. Multiscale sampling model for motion integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherbakov, Lena; Yazdanbakhsh, Arash

    2013-09-30

    Biologically plausible strategies for visual scene integration across spatial and temporal domains continues to be a challenging topic. The fundamental question we address is whether classical problems in motion integration, such as the aperture problem, can be solved in a model that samples the visual scene at multiple spatial and temporal scales in parallel. We hypothesize that fast interareal connections that allow feedback of information between cortical layers are the key processes that disambiguate motion direction. We developed a neural model showing how the aperture problem can be solved using different spatial sampling scales between LGN, V1 layer 4, V1 layer 6, and area MT. Our results suggest that multiscale sampling, rather than feedback explicitly, is the key process that gives rise to end-stopped cells in V1 and enables area MT to solve the aperture problem without the need for calculating intersecting constraints or crafting intricate patterns of spatiotemporal receptive fields. Furthermore, the model explains why end-stopped cells no longer emerge in the absence of V1 layer 6 activity (Bolz & Gilbert, 1986), why V1 layer 4 cells are significantly more end-stopped than V1 layer 6 cells (Pack, Livingstone, Duffy, & Born, 2003), and how it is possible to have a solution to the aperture problem in area MT with no solution in V1 in the presence of driving feedback. In summary, while much research in the field focuses on how a laminar architecture can give rise to complicated spatiotemporal receptive fields to solve problems in the motion domain, we show that one can reframe motion integration as an emergent property of multiscale sampling achieved concurrently within lamina and across multiple visual areas.

  10. Modeling evolutionary games in populations with demographic structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xiang-Yi; Giaimo, Stefano; Baudisch, Annette

    2015-01-01

    interactions, but usually omits life history and the demographic structure of the population. Here we show how an integration of both aspects can substantially alter the underlying evolutionary dynamics. We study the replicator dynamics of strategy interactions in life stage structured populations. Individuals...

  11. Organizational buying behavior: An integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakić Beba

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizational buying behavior is decision making process by which formal organizations establish the need for purchased products and services, and identify, evaluate, and choose among alternative brands and suppliers. Understanding the buying decision processes is essential to developing the marketing programs of companies that sell to organizations, or to 'industrial customers'. In business (industrial marketing, exchange relationships between the organizational selling center and the organizational buying center are crucial. Integrative model of organizational buying behavior offers a systematic framework in analyzing the complementary factors and what effect they have on the behavior of those involved in making buying decisions.

  12. Differential and Integral Models of TOKAMAK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Dolezel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of 3D electromagnetic phenomena in TOKAMAK with typically distributed main and additional coils is not an easy business. Evaluated must be not only distribution of the magnetic field, but also forces acting in particular coils. Use of differential methods (such as FDM or FEM for this purpose may be complicated because of geometrical incommensurability of particular subregions in the investigated area or problems with the boundary conditions. That is why integral formulation of the problem may sometimes be an advantages. The theoretical analysis is illustrated on an example processed by both methods, whose results are compared and discussed.

  13. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  14. INTEGRATED SPEED ESTIMATION MODEL FOR MULTILANE EXPREESSWAYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sungjoon; Oguchi, Takashi

    In this paper, an integrated speed-estimation model is developed based on empirical analyses for the basic sections of intercity multilane expressway un der the uncongested condition. This model enables a speed estimation for each lane at any site under arb itrary highway-alignment, traffic (traffic flow and truck percentage), and rainfall conditions. By combin ing this model and a lane-use model which estimates traffic distribution on the lanes by each vehicle type, it is also possible to es timate an average speed across all the lanes of one direction from a traffic demand by vehicle type under specific highway-alignment and rainfall conditions. This model is exp ected to be a tool for the evaluation of traffic performance for expressways when the performance me asure is travel speed, which is necessary for Performance-Oriented Highway Planning and Design. Regarding the highway-alignment condition, two new estimators, called effective horizo ntal curvature and effective vertical grade, are proposed in this paper which take into account the influence of upstream and downstream alignment conditions. They are applied to the speed-estimation model, and it shows increased accuracy of the estimation.

  15. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  16. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  17. Treatment of pathological gambling - integrative systemic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mladenović, Ivica; Lažetić, Goran; Lečić-Toševski, Dušica; Dimitrijević, Ivan

    2015-03-01

    Pathological gambling was classified under impulse control disorders within the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) (WHO 1992), but the most recent Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 5th edition (DSM-V), (APA 2013), has recognized pathological gambling as a first disorder within a new diagnostic category of behavioral addictions - Gambling disorder. Pathological gambling is a disorder in progression, and we hope that our experience in the treatment of pathological gambling in the Daily Hospital for Addictions at The Institute of Mental Health, through the original "Integrative - systemic model" would be of use to colleagues, dealing with this pathology. This model of treatment of pathological gambling is based on multi-systemic approach and it primarily represents an integration of family and cognitive-behavioral therapy, with traces of psychodynamic, existential and pharmacotherapy. The model is based on the book "Pathological gambling - with self-help manual" by Dr Mladenovic and Dr Lazetic, and has been designed in the form of a program that lasts 10 weeks in the intensive phase, and then continues for two years in the form of "extended treatment" ("After care"). The intensive phase is divided into three segments: educational, insight with initial changes and analysis of the achieved changes with the definition of plans and areas that need to be addressed in the extended treatment. "Extended treatment" lasts for two years in the form of group therapy, during which there is a second order change of the identified patient, but also of other family members. Pathological gambling has been treated in the form of systemic-family therapy for more than 10 years at the Institute of Mental Health (IMH), in Belgrade. For second year in a row the treatment is carried out by the modern "Integrative-systemic model". If abstinence from gambling witihin the period of one year after completion of the intensive phase of treatment is taken as the main criterion of

  18. KEEFEKTIFAN MODEL CONNECTED DAN INTEGRATED DALAM PEMBELAJARAN IPS SMP DI KOTA YOGYAKARTA

    OpenAIRE

    Idrus idrus

    2011-01-01

    This research aimed to: (1) analyze the differences in social studies learning achievement between the students using connected and integrated models and those using conventional model; and (2) analyze the hierarchy of the effect of the learning models  among the connected, integrated, and conventional. This experimental research employed a matching post-test comparison group design. The population of this research was National Standardized Schools of Junior Secondary Schools in Yogya...

  19. Learning models for multi-source integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejada, S.; Knoblock, C.A.; Minton, S. [Univ. of Southern California/ISI, Marina del Rey, CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Because of the growing number of information sources available through the internet there are many cases in which information needed to solve a problem or answer a question is spread across several information sources. For example, when given two sources, one about comic books and the other about super heroes, you might want to ask the question {open_quotes}Is Spiderman a Marvel Super Hero?{close_quotes} This query accesses both sources; therefore, it is necessary to have information about the relationships of the data within each source and between sources to properly access and integrate the data retrieved. The SIMS information broker captures this type of information in the form of a model. All the information sources map into the model providing the user a single interface to multiple sources.

  20. Gauge theories and integrable lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witten, E.

    1989-01-01

    Investigations of new knot polynomials discovered in the last few years have shown them to be intimately connected with soluble models of two dimensional lattice statistical mechanics. In this paper, these results, which in time may illuminate the whole question of why integrable lattice models exist, are reconsidered from the point of view of three dimensional gauge theory. Expectation values of Wilson lines in three dimensional Chern-Simons gauge theories can be computed by evaluating the partition functions of certain lattice models on finite graphs obtained by projecting the Wilson lines to the plane. The models in question - previously considered in both the knot theory and statistical mechanics literature - are IRF models in which the local Boltzmann weights are the matrix elements of braiding matrices in rational conformal field theories. These matrix elements, in turn, can be represented in three dimensional gauge theory in terms of the expectation value of a certain tetrahedral configuration of Wilson lines. This representation makes manifest a surprising symmetry of the braiding matrix elements in conformal field theory. (orig.)

  1. Integrated Safety Culture Model and Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪磊; 孙瑞山; 刘汉辉

    2009-01-01

    A new safety culture model is constructed and is applied to analyze the correlations between safety culture and SMS. On the basis of previous typical definitions, models and theories of safety culture, an in-depth analysis on safety culture's structure, composing elements and their correlations was conducted. A new definition of safety culture was proposed from the perspective of sub-cuhure. 7 types of safety sub-culture, which are safety priority culture, standardizing culture, flexible culture, learning culture, teamwork culture, reporting culture and justice culture were defined later. Then integrated safety culture model (ISCM) was put forward based on the definition. The model divided safety culture into intrinsic latency level and extrinsic indication level and explained the potential relationship between safety sub-culture and all safety culture dimensions. Finally in the analyzing of safety culture and SMS, it concluded that positive safety culture is the basis of im-plementing SMS effectively and an advanced SMS will improve safety culture from all around.

  2. Integrated multiscale modeling of molecular computing devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, Peter T; Leng Yongsheng

    2005-01-01

    Molecular electronics, in which single organic molecules are designed to perform the functions of transistors, diodes, switches and other circuit elements used in current siliconbased microelecronics, is drawing wide interest as a potential replacement technology for conventional silicon-based lithographically etched microelectronic devices. In addition to their nanoscopic scale, the additional advantage of molecular electronics devices compared to silicon-based lithographically etched devices is the promise of being able to produce them cheaply on an industrial scale using wet chemistry methods (i.e., self-assembly from solution). The design of molecular electronics devices, and the processes to make them on an industrial scale, will require a thorough theoretical understanding of the molecular and higher level processes involved. Hence, the development of modeling techniques for molecular electronics devices is a high priority from both a basic science point of view (to understand the experimental studies in this field) and from an applied nanotechnology (manufacturing) point of view. Modeling molecular electronics devices requires computational methods at all length scales - electronic structure methods for calculating electron transport through organic molecules bonded to inorganic surfaces, molecular simulation methods for determining the structure of self-assembled films of organic molecules on inorganic surfaces, mesoscale methods to understand and predict the formation of mesoscale patterns on surfaces (including interconnect architecture), and macroscopic scale methods (including finite element methods) for simulating the behavior of molecular electronic circuit elements in a larger integrated device. Here we describe a large Department of Energy project involving six universities and one national laboratory aimed at developing integrated multiscale methods for modeling molecular electronics devices. The project is funded equally by the Office of Basic

  3. Integrated core-edge-divertor modeling studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stacey, W.M.

    2001-01-01

    An integrated calculation model for simulating the interaction of physics phenomena taking place in the plasma core, in the plasma edge and in the SOL and divertor of tokamaks has been developed and applied to study such interactions. The model synthesises a combination of numerical calculations (1) the power and particle balances for the core plasma, using empirical confinement scaling laws and taking into account radiation losses (2), the particle, momentum and power balances in the SOL and divertor, taking into account the effects of radiation and recycling neutrals, (3) the transport of feeling and recycling neutrals, explicitly representing divertor and pumping geometry, and (4) edge pedestal gradient scale lengths and widths, evaluation of theoretical predictions (5) confinement degradation due to thermal instabilities in the edge pedestals, (6) detachment and divertor MARFE onset, (7) core MARFE onsets leading to a H-L transition, and (8) radiative collapse leading to a disruption and evaluation of empirical fits (9) power thresholds for the L-H and H-L transitions and (10) the width of the edge pedestals. The various components of the calculation model are coupled and must be iterated to a self-consistent convergence. The model was developed over several years for the purpose of interpreting various edge phenomena observed in DIII-D experiments and thereby, to some extent, has been benchmarked against experiment. Because the model treats the interactions of various phenomena in the core, edge and divertor, yet is computationally efficient, it lends itself to the investigation of the effects of different choices of various edge plasma operating conditions on overall divertor and core plasma performance. Studies of the effect of feeling location and rate, divertor geometry, plasma shape, pumping and over 'edge parameters' on core plasma properties (line average density, confinement, density limit, etc.) have been performed for DIII-D model problems. A

  4. Key Issues for Seamless Integrated Chemistry–Meteorology Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online coupled meteorology–atmospheric chemistry models have greatly evolved in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modeling community, these integrated models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, as they can con...

  5. Modelling Spark Integration in Science Classroom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Paz E. Morales

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The study critically explored how a PASCO-designed technology (SPARK ScienceLearning System is meaningfully integrated into the teaching of selected topics in Earth and Environmental Science. It highlights on modelling the effectiveness of using the SPARK Learning System as a primary tool in learning science that leads to learning and achievement of the students. Data and observation gathered and correlation of the ability of the technology to develop high intrinsic motivation to student achievement were used to design framework on how to meaningfully integrate SPARK ScienceLearning System in teaching Earth and Environmental Science. Research instruments used in this study were adopted from standardized questionnaires available from literature. Achievement test and evaluation form were developed and validated for the purpose of deducing data needed for the study. Interviews were done to delve into the deeper thoughts and emotions of the respondents. Data from the interviews served to validate all numerical data culled from this study. Cross-case analysis of the data was done to reveal some recurring themes, problems and benefits derived by the students in using the SPARK Science Learning System to further establish its effectiveness in the curriculum as a forerunner to the shift towards the 21st Century Learning.

  6. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  7. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  8. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  9. Schizophrenia: an integrated sociodevelopmental-cognitive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Oliver D; Murray, Robin M

    2014-01-01

    Schizophrenia remains a major burden1. The dopamine (DA) and neurodevelopmental hypotheses attempt to explain the pathogenic mechanisms and origins of the disorder respectively2-4. Recently an alternative, the cognitive model, has gained popularity5. However the first two theories have not been satisfactorily integrated, and the most influential iteration of the cognitive model makes no mention of DA, neurodevelopment, or indeed the brain5. Here we show that developmental alterations secondary to variant genes, early hazards to the brain and childhood adversity, sensitise the DA system, and result in excessive presynaptic DA synthesis and DA release. Social adversity biases the cognitive schema that the individual uses to interpret experiences towards paranoid interpretations. Subsequent stress results in dysregulated DA release, causing the misattribution of salience to stimuli, which are then misinterpreted by the biased cognitive processes. The resulting paranoia and hallucinations in turn cause further stress, and eventually repeated DA dysregulation hard-wires the psychotic beliefs. Finally we consider the implications of this model for understanding and treating schizophrenia. PMID:24315522

  10. An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

    2016-03-01

    Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

  11. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  12. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  13. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  14. A general consumer-resource population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

    2015-01-01

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

  15. Yunnan-III models for evolutionary population synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Li, L.; Han, Z.; Zhuang, Y.; Kang, X.

    2013-02-01

    We build the Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by using the mesa stellar evolution code, BaSeL stellar spectra library and the initial mass functions (IMFs) of Kroupa and Salpeter, and present colours and integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of solar-metallicity stellar populations (SPs) in the range of 1 Myr to 15 Gyr. The main characteristic of the Yunnan-III EPS models is the usage of a set of self-consistent solar-metallicity stellar evolutionary tracks (the masses of stars are from 0.1 to 100 M⊙). This set of tracks is obtained by using the state-of-the-art mesa code. mesa code can evolve stellar models through thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase for low- and intermediate-mass stars. By comparisons, we confirm that the inclusion of TP-AGB stars makes the V - K, V - J and V - R colours of SPs redder and the infrared flux larger at ages log(t/yr) ≳ 7.6 [the differences reach the maximum at log(t/yr) ˜ 8.6, ˜0.5-0.2 mag for colours, approximately two times for K-band flux]. We also find that the colour-evolution trends of Model with-TPAGB at intermediate and large ages are similar to those from the starburst99 code, which employs the Padova-AGB stellar library, BaSeL spectral library and the Kroupa IMF. At last, we compare the colours with the other EPS models comprising TP-AGB stars (such as CB07, M05, V10 and POPSTAR), and find that the B - V colour agrees with each other but the V-K colour shows a larger discrepancy among these EPS models [˜1 mag when 8 ≲ log(t/yr) ≲ 9]. The stellar evolutionary tracks, isochrones, colours and ISEDs can be obtained on request from the first author or from our website (http://www1.ynao.ac.cn/~zhangfh/). Using the isochrones, you can build your EPS models. Now the format of stellar evolutionary tracks is the same as that in the starburst99 code; you can put them into the starburst99 code and get the SP's results. Moreover, the colours involving other passbands

  16. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  17. [Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

    2016-07-12

    To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

  18. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  19. Integrated soft sensor model for flow control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aijälä, G; Lumley, D

    2006-01-01

    Tighter discharge permits often require wastewater treatment plants to maximize utilization of available facilities in order to cost-effectively reach these goals. Important aspects are minimizing internal disturbances and using available information in a smart way to improve plant performance. In this study, flow control throughout a large highly automated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) was implemented in order to reduce internal disturbances and to provide a firm foundation for more advanced process control. A modular flow control system was constructed based on existing instrumentation and soft sensor flow models. Modules were constructed for every unit process in water treatment and integrated into a plant-wide model. The flow control system is used to automatically control recirculation flows and bypass flows at the plant. The system was also successful in making accurate flow estimations at points in the plant where it is not possible to have conventional flow meter instrumentation. The system provides fault detection for physical flow measuring devices. The module construction allows easy adaptation for new unit processes added to the treatment plant.

  20. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  1. World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-12-01

    The World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) is an aggregate demand-based partial equilibrium model used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to project long-term domestic and international nuclear energy requirements. WINES follows a top-down approach in which economic growth rates, delivered energy demand growth rates, and electricity demand are projected successively to ultimately forecast total nuclear generation and nuclear capacity. WINES could be potentially used to produce forecasts for any country or region in the world. Presently, WINES is being used to generate long-term forecasts for the United States, and for all countries with commercial nuclear programs in the world, excluding countries located in centrally planned economic areas. Projections for the United States are developed for the period from 2010 through 2030, and for other countries for the period starting in 2000 or 2005 (depending on the country) through 2010. EIA uses a pipeline approach to project nuclear capacity for the period between 1990 and the starting year for which the WINES model is used. This approach involves a detailed accounting of existing nuclear generating units and units under construction, their capacities, their actual or estimated time of completion, and the estimated date of retirements. Further detail on this approach can be found in Appendix B of Commercial Nuclear Power 1991: Prospects for the United States and the World

  2. Integrated modelling of near field and engineered barrier system processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamont, A.; Gansemer, J.

    1994-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Integrating Model (YMIM) is an integrated model of the Engineered barrier System has been developed to assist project managers at LLNL in identifying areas where research emphasis should be placed. The model was designed to be highly modular so that a model of an individual process could be easily modified or replaced without interfering with the models of other processes. The modules modelling container failure and the dissolution of nuclides include particularly detailed, temperature dependent models of their corresponding processes

  3. Removing the Blinders: Toward an Integrative Model of Organizational Change in Sport and Physical Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, George B.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the nature of the change process in physical education and sports, presenting a model to incorporate in studies of radical organizational change. The integration of four theories (institutionalism, population ecology, strategic choice, and resource dependence) provides the basis for the model. The paper offers a hypothetical example and…

  4. Business Model Innovation: An Integrative Conceptual Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Wirtz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The point of departure of this exploratory study is the gap between the increasing importance of business model innovation (BMI in science and management and the limited conceptual assistance available. Therefore, the study identi es and explores scattered BMI insights and deduces them into an integrative framework to enhance our understanding about this phenomenon and to present a helpful guidance for researchers and practitioners. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study identi es BMI insights through a literature-based investigation and consolidates them into an integrative BMI framework that presents the key elements and dimensions of BMI as well as their presumed relationships. Findings: The study enhances our understanding about the key elements and dimensions of BMI, presents further conceptual insights into the BMI phenomenon, supplies implications for science and management, and may serve as a helpful guidance for future research. Practical Implications: The presented framework provides managers with a tool to identify critical BMI issues and can serve as a conceptual BMI guideline. Research limitations: Given the vast amount of academic journals, it is unlikely that every applicable scienti c publication is included in the analysis. The illustrative examples are descriptive in nature, and thus do not provide empirical validity. Several implications for future research are provided. Originality/Value: The study’s main contribution lies in the unifying approach of the dispersed BMI knowledge. Since our understanding of BMI is still limited, this study should provide the necessary insights and conceptual assistance to further develop the concept and guide its practical application.

  5. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically-friendly ... which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental objectives. ... Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary ...

  6. Integrated corporate structure life cycle management modeling and organization

    OpenAIRE

    Naumenko, M.; Morozova, L.

    2011-01-01

    Integrated business structure presented as complementary pool of its participants skills. The methodical approach to integrated business structure life cycle modeling proposed. Recommendations of enterprises life cycles stages correlate are submitted.

  7. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  8. The Virtual Brain Integrates Computational Modeling and Multimodal Neuroimaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirner, Michael; McIntosh, Anthony R.; Jirsa, Viktor K.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Brain function is thought to emerge from the interactions among neuronal populations. Apart from traditional efforts to reproduce brain dynamics from the micro- to macroscopic scales, complementary approaches develop phenomenological models of lower complexity. Such macroscopic models typically generate only a few selected—ideally functionally relevant—aspects of the brain dynamics. Importantly, they often allow an understanding of the underlying mechanisms beyond computational reproduction. Adding detail to these models will widen their ability to reproduce a broader range of dynamic features of the brain. For instance, such models allow for the exploration of consequences of focal and distributed pathological changes in the system, enabling us to identify and develop approaches to counteract those unfavorable processes. Toward this end, The Virtual Brain (TVB) (www.thevirtualbrain.org), a neuroinformatics platform with a brain simulator that incorporates a range of neuronal models and dynamics at its core, has been developed. This integrated framework allows the model-based simulation, analysis, and inference of neurophysiological mechanisms over several brain scales that underlie the generation of macroscopic neuroimaging signals. In this article, we describe how TVB works, and we present the first proof of concept. PMID:23442172

  9. Model-integrating software components engineering flexible software systems

    CERN Document Server

    Derakhshanmanesh, Mahdi

    2015-01-01

    In his study, Mahdi Derakhshanmanesh builds on the state of the art in modeling by proposing to integrate models into running software on the component-level without translating them to code. Such so-called model-integrating software exploits all advantages of models: models implicitly support a good separation of concerns, they are self-documenting and thus improve understandability and maintainability and in contrast to model-driven approaches there is no synchronization problem anymore between the models and the code generated from them. Using model-integrating components, software will be

  10. Integration of Simulink Models with Component-based Software Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN, N.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Model based development aims to facilitate the development of embedded control systems by emphasizing the separation of the design level from the implementation level. Model based design involves the use of multiple models that represent different views of a system, having different semantics of abstract system descriptions. Usually, in mechatronics systems, design proceeds by iterating model construction, model analysis, and model transformation. Constructing a MATLAB/Simulink model, a plant and controller behavior is simulated using graphical blocks to represent mathematical and logical constructs and process flow, then software code is generated. A Simulink model is a representation of the design or implementation of a physical system that satisfies a set of requirements. A software component-based system aims to organize system architecture and behavior as a means of computation, communication and constraints, using computational blocks and aggregates for both discrete and continuous behavior, different interconnection and execution disciplines for event-based and time-based controllers, and so on, to encompass the demands to more functionality, at even lower prices, and with opposite constraints. COMDES (Component-based Design of Software for Distributed Embedded Systems is such a component-based system framework developed by the software engineering group of Mads Clausen Institute for Product Innovation (MCI, University of Southern Denmark. Once specified, the software model has to be analyzed. One way of doing that is to integrate in wrapper files the model back into Simulink S-functions, and use its extensive simulation features, thus allowing an early exploration of the possible design choices over multiple disciplines. The paper describes a safe translation of a restricted set of MATLAB/Simulink blocks to COMDES software components, both for continuous and discrete behavior, and the transformation of the software system into the S

  11. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  12. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  13. Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models

  14. Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

    2011-01-01

    An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

  15. Atomic data for integrated tokamak modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toekesi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The Integrated Tokamak Modeling Task Force (ITM-TF) was set up in 2004. The main target is to coordinate the European fusion modeling effort and providing a complete European modeling structure for International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), with the highest degree of flexibility. For the accurate simulation of the processes in the active fusion reactor in the ITM-TF, numerous atomic, molecular, nuclear and surface related data are required. In this work we present total-, single- and multiple-ionization and charge exchange cross sections in close connection to the ITM-TF. Interpretation of these cross sections in multi-electron ion-atom collisions is a challenging task for theories. The main difficulty is caused by the many-body feature of the collision, involving the projectile, projectile electron(s), target nucleus, and target electron(s). The classical trajectory Monte Carlo (CTMC) method has been quite successful in dealing with the atomic processes in ion-atom collisions. One of the advantages of the CTMC method is that many-body interactions are exactly taken into account related CTMC simulations for a various collision systems are presented. To highlight the efficiency of the method we present electron emission cross sections in collision between dressed Al q+ ions with He target. The theory delivers separate spectra for electrons emitted from the target and the projectile. By summing these two components in the rest frame of the target we may make a comparison with available experimental data. For the collision system in question, a significant contribution from Fermi-shuttle ionization has to be expected in the spectra at energies higher than E=0.5 m e (nV) 2 , where m e is the mass of the electron, V the projectile velocity and n an integer greater than 1. We found enhanced electron yields compared to first order theory in this region of CTMC spectra, which can be directly attributed to the contribution of Fermi-shuttle type multiple

  16. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  17. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  18. Models for integrated pest control and their biological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A

    2008-09-01

    Successful integrated pest management (IPM) control programmes depend on many factors which include host-parasitoid ratios, starting densities, timings of parasitoid releases, dosages and timings of insecticide applications and levels of host-feeding and parasitism. Mathematical models can help us to clarify and predict the effects of such factors on the stability of host-parasitoid systems, which we illustrate here by extending the classical continuous and discrete host-parasitoid models to include an IPM control programme. The results indicate that one of three control methods can maintain the host level below the economic threshold (ET) in relation to different ET levels, initial densities of host and parasitoid populations and host-parasitoid ratios. The effects of host intrinsic growth rate and parasitoid searching efficiency on host mean outbreak period can be calculated numerically from the models presented. The instantaneous pest killing rate of an insecticide application is also estimated from the models. The results imply that the modelling methods described can help in the design of appropriate control strategies and assist management decision-making. The results also indicate that a high initial density of parasitoids (such as in inundative releases) and high parasitoid inter-generational survival rates will lead to more frequent host outbreaks and, therefore, greater economic damage. The biological implications of this counter intuitive result are discussed.

  19. Geography, the Integrating Discipline: Explaining China's Population-Driven Geopolitics to Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchat, Clarence J.

    2008-01-01

    This article demonstrates geography's role as an integrative discipline and its utility in connecting students to the world around them. A case study links China's demography and its geopolitics to the lives of U.S. students. The relationship of China's population pressures to its resulting economic growth, need for economic resources, and…

  20. Understanding Risk and Protective Factors for Child Maltreatment: The Value of Integrated, Population-Based Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; Needell, Barbara; Rhodes, Anne E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we argue for expanded efforts to integrate administrative data systems as a "practical strategy" for developing a richer understanding of child abuse and neglect. Although the study of child maltreatment is often critiqued for being atheoretical, we believe that a more pressing concern is the absence of population-based and…

  1. Theories and Frameworks for Online Education: Seeking an Integrated Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciano, Anthony G.

    2017-01-01

    This article examines theoretical frameworks and models that focus on the pedagogical aspects of online education. After a review of learning theory as applied to online education, a proposal for an integrated "Multimodal Model for Online Education" is provided based on pedagogical purpose. The model attempts to integrate the work of…

  2. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  3. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  4. Modeling Approaches for Describing Microbial Population Heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita

    environmental conditions. Three cases are presented and discussed in this thesis. Common to all is the use of S. cerevisiae as model organism, and the use of cell size and cell cycle position as single-cell descriptors. The first case focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of a yeast...

  5. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

  6. Numerical time integration for air pollution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G. Verwer (Jan); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem); J.G. Blom (Joke)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDue to the large number of chemical species and the three space dimensions, off-the-shelf stiff ODE integrators are not feasible for the numerical time integration of stiff systems of advection-diffusion-reaction equations [ fracpar{c{t + nabla cdot left( vu{u c right) = nabla cdot left(

  7. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  8. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnė Beinoraitė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

  9. Integrated Intelligent Modeling, Design and Control of Crystal Growth Processes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Prasad, V

    2000-01-01

    .... This MURI program took an integrated approach towards modeling, design and control of crystal growth processes and in conjunction with growth and characterization experiments developed much better...

  10. Guidelines for integrating population education into primary education and literacy programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    In recent seminars and workshops in the Asia and Pacific region the integration of population education into primary schools and literacy programs were the main topics. In most of the countries in this area separate courses in population education appear to be unfeasible for primary and secondary schools. In the nonformal area experience has indicated that population education acquires more meaning and relevance if it is integrated into an ongoing development program. The integration approach requires knowledge of the contents of the accommodating subjects or programs and knowledge of the contents of the accommodating subjects or programs and knowledge of the contents of population education. Guidelines suggested include the following steps in developing an integrated curriculum and instructional materials. First determine the needs, characteristics and other background information needed on the target group. Next prioritize the problems and needs of the target group, and formulate educational objectives from the identified needs and problems. Next determine and sequence the curriculum contents and then determine specific population education objectives and contents for integration, and what specific materials have to be developed. Then identify the specific type of format of materials to be developed, and write the first draft of the material. Also prepare illustrations and other art and graphic materials. Then the draft material should be reviewed and translated into the language of the target audience if needed. The materials should then be pretested, or field tested, using a sample of the intended users. To make sure the materials are reaching the target groups and being used effectively, a user's guide should be prepared and teachers and facilitators, as well as supervisors, should be prepared on the use of the material. In addition, a distribution and utilization plan should be prepared. Nonformal education materials can be distributed through libraries

  11. A one-population Amari model with periodic microstructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svanstedt, Nils; Wyller, John; Malyutina, Elena

    2014-01-01

    We review the derivation of the homogenized one-population Amari equation by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity function. A key point in this derivation is Visintin's theorem for two-scale convergence of convolution integrals. We construct single bump solutions of the resulting homogenized equation using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable and the firing rate function is modelled as a unit step function. The parameter measuring the degree of heterogeneity plays the role of a control parameter. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. A framework for analysing the stability of these structures is formulated. This framework is based on spectral theory for Hilbert–Schmidt integral operators and it deforms to the standard Evans function approach for the translational invariant case in the limit of no heterogeneity. The upper and lower bounds of the growth/decay rates of the perturbations imposed on the bump states can be expressed in terms of the operator norm of the actual Hilbert–Schmidt operator. Intervals for which the pinning function is increasing correspond to unstable bumps, while complementary intervals where the pinning function decreases correspond to stable bumps, just as in the translational invariant case. Examples showing the properties of the bumps are discussed in detail when the connectivity kernels are given in terms of an exponential decaying function, a wizard hat function and a damped oscillating function. (paper)

  12. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  13. CREATING EFFECTIVE MODELS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATED STRUCTURES IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Koliesnikov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of scientific research aimed at development of methodology-theoretical mechanisms of building the effective models of vertically-integrated structures are presented. A presence of vertically-integrated structures on natural-monopolistic markets at private and governmental sectors of economy and priority directions of integration are given.

  14. Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

    2018-04-01

    A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

  15. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  16. Integrating Traditional and Evolutionary Knowledge in Biodiversity Conservation: a Population Level Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan J. Fraser

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite their dual importance in the assessment of endangered/threatened species, there have been few attempts to integrate traditional ecological knowledge (TEK and evolutionary biology knowledge (EBK at the population level. We contrasted long-term aboriginal TEK with previously obtained EBK in the context of seasonal migratory habits and population biology of a salmonid fish, brook charr, (Salvelinus fontinalis inhabiting a large, remote postglacial lake. Compilation of TEK spanning four decades involved analytical workshops, semidirective interviews, and collaborative fieldwork with local aboriginal informants and fishing guides. We found that TEK complemented EBK of brook charr by providing concordant and additional information about (1 population viability; (2 breeding areas and migration patterns of divergent populations; and (3 the behavioral ecology of populations within feeding areas; all of which may ultimately affect the maintenance of population diversity. Aboriginal concerns related to human pressures on this species, not revealed by EBK, also help to focus future conservation initiatives for divergent populations and to encourage restoration of traditional fishing practices. However, relative to EBK, the relevance of TEK to salmonid biodiversity conservation was evident mainly at a smaller spatial scale, for example, that of individual rivers occupied by populations or certain lake sectors. Nevertheless, EBK was only collected over a 4-yr period, so TEK provided an essential long-term temporal window to evaluate population differences and persistence. We concluded that, despite different conceptual underpinnings, spatially and temporally varying TEK and EBK both contribute to the knowledge base required to achieve sustainability and effective biodiversity conservation planning for a given species. Such integration may be particularly relevant in many isolated regions, where intraspecific diversity can go unrecognized due to sparse

  17. Land development, land use, and urban sprawl in Puerto Rico integrating remote sensing and population census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez

    2007-01-01

    The island of Puerto Rico has both a high population density and a long history of ineffective land use planning. This study integrates geospatial technology and population census data to understand how people use and develop the lands. We define three new regions for Puerto Rico: Urban (16%), Densely Populated Rural (36%), and Sparsely Populated Rural (48%). Eleven...

  18. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  19. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  20. Shared mental models of integrated care: aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross

    2012-01-01

    Health service organizations and professionals are under increasing pressure to work together to deliver integrated patient care. A common understanding of integration strategies may facilitate the delivery of integrated care across inter-organizational and inter-professional boundaries. This paper aims to build a framework for exploring and potentially aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives of systems integration. The authors draw from the literature on shared mental models, strategic management and change, framing, stakeholder management, and systems theory to develop a new construct, Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC), which consists of three types of mental models, i.e. integration-task, system-role, and integration-belief. The MMIC construct encompasses many of the known barriers and enablers to integrating care while also providing a comprehensive, theory-based framework of psychological factors that may influence inter-organizational and inter-professional relations. While the existing literature on integration focuses on optimizing structures and processes, the MMIC construct emphasizes the convergence and divergence of stakeholders' knowledge and beliefs, and how these underlying cognitions influence interactions (or lack thereof) across the continuum of care. MMIC may help to: explain what differentiates effective from ineffective integration initiatives; determine system readiness to integrate; diagnose integration problems; and develop interventions for enhancing integrative processes and ultimately the delivery of integrated care. Global interest and ongoing challenges in integrating care underline the need for research on the mental models that characterize the behaviors of actors within health systems; the proposed framework offers a starting point for applying a cognitive perspective to health systems integration.

  1. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  2. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  3. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  4. Integrative analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms and gene expression efficiently distinguishes samples from closely related ethnic populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hsin-Chou

    2012-07-01

    accuracies and a reduced number of selected markers in AIM panels. Conclusions Integrative analysis of SNP and GE markers provides high-accuracy and/or cost-effective classification results for assigning samples from closely related or distantly related ancestral lineages to their original ancestral populations. User-friendly BIASLESS (Biomarkers Identification and Samples Subdivision software was developed as an efficient tool for selecting key SNP and/or GE markers and then building models for sample subdivision. BIASLESS was programmed in R and R-GUI and is available online at http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/hsinchou/genetics/prediction/BIASLESS.htm.

  5. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  6. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  7. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    OpenAIRE

    Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

    2014-01-01

    Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

  8. Establishing multiple omics baselines for three Southeast Asian populations in the Singapore Integrative Omics Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, Woei-Yuh; Tantoso, Erwin; Begum, Husna; Zhou, Lihan; Zou, Ruiyang; He, Cheng; Chan, Sze Ling; Tan, Linda Wei-Lin; Wong, Lai-Ping; Xu, Wenting; Moong, Don Kyin Nwe; Lim, Yenly; Li, Bowen; Pillai, Nisha Esakimuthu; Peterson, Trevor A; Bielawny, Tomasz; Meikle, Peter J; Mundra, Piyushkumar A; Lim, Wei-Yen; Luo, Ma; Chia, Kee-Seng; Ong, Rick Twee-Hee; Brunham, Liam R; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; Too, Heng Phon; Soong, Richie; Wenk, Markus R; Little, Peter; Teo, Yik-Ying

    2017-09-21

    The Singapore Integrative Omics Study provides valuable insights on establishing population reference measurement in 364 Chinese, Malay, and Indian individuals. These measurements include > 2.5 millions genetic variants, 21,649 transcripts expression, 282 lipid species quantification, and 284 clinical, lifestyle, and dietary variables. This concept paper introduces the depth of the data resource, and investigates the extent of ethnic variation at these omics and non-omics biomarkers. It is evident that there are specific biomarkers in each of these platforms to differentiate between the ethnicities, and intra-population analyses suggest that Chinese and Indians are the most biologically homogeneous and heterogeneous, respectively, of the three groups. Consistent patterns of correlations between lipid species also suggest the possibility of lipid tagging to simplify future lipidomics assays. The Singapore Integrative Omics Study is expected to allow the characterization of intra-omic and inter-omic correlations within and across all three ethnic groups through a systems biology approach.The Singapore Genome Variation projects characterized the genetics of Singapore's Chinese, Malay, and Indian populations. The Singapore Integrative Omics Study introduced here goes further in providing multi-omic measurements in individuals from these populations, including genetic, transcriptome, lipidome, and lifestyle data, and will facilitate the study of common diseases in Asian communities.

  9. Integrating Seasonal Oscillations into Basel II Behavioural Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces a new methodology of temporal influence measurement (seasonal oscillations, temporal patterns for behavioural scoring development purposes. The paper shows how significant temporal variables can be recognised and then integrated into the behavioural scoring models in order to improve model performance. Behavioural scoring models are integral parts of the Basel II standard on Internal Ratings-Based Approaches (IRB. The IRB approach much more precisely reflects individual risk bank profile.A solution of the problem of how to analyze and integrate macroeconomic and microeconomic factors represented in time series into behavioural scorecard models will be shown in the paper by using the REF II model.

  10. Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

    2012-01-01

    This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...... with a major international engineering company....

  11. Integrated modeling of ozonation for optimization of drinking water treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Helm, A.W.C.

    2007-01-01

    Drinking water treatment plants automation becomes more sophisticated, more on-line monitoring systems become available and integration of modeling environments with control systems becomes easier. This gives possibilities for model-based optimization. In operation of drinking water treatment

  12. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of...

  13. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of processes,...

  14. Irreducible integrable theories form tensor products of conformal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathur, S.D.; Warner, N.P.

    1991-01-01

    By using Toda field theories we show that there are perturbations of direct products of conformal theories that lead to irreducible integrable field theories. The same affine Toda theory can be truncated to different quantum integrable models for different choices of the charge at infinity and the coupling. The classification of integrable models that can be obtained in this fashion follows the classification of symmetric spaces of type G/H with rank H = rank G. (orig.)

  15. Integration of Simulink Models with Component-based Software Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marian, Nicolae; Top, Søren

    2008-01-01

    , communication and constraints, using computational blocks and aggregates for both discrete and continuous behaviour, different interconnection and execution disciplines for event-based and time-based controllers, and so on, to encompass the demands to more functionality, at even lower prices, and with opposite...... to be analyzed. One way of doing that is to integrate in wrapper files the model back into Simulink S-functions, and use its extensive simulation features, thus allowing an early exploration of the possible design choices over multiple disciplines. The paper describes a safe translation of a restricted set...... of MATLAB/Simulink blocks to COMDES software components, both for continuous and discrete behaviour, and the transformation of the software system into the S-functions. The general aim of this work is the improvement of multi-disciplinary development of embedded systems with the focus on the relation...

  16. [The dual process model of addiction. Towards an integrated model?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandermeeren, R; Hebbrecht, M

    2012-01-01

    Neurobiology and cognitive psychology have provided us with a dual process model of addiction. According to this model, behavior is considered to be the dynamic result of a combination of automatic and controlling processes. In cases of addiction the balance between these two processes is severely disturbed. Automated processes will continue to produce impulses that ensure the continuance of addictive behavior. Weak, reflective or controlling processes are both the reason for and the result of the inability to forgo addiction. To identify features that are common to current neurocognitive insights into addiction and psychodynamic views on addiction. The picture that emerges from research is not clear. There is some evidence that attentional bias has a causal effect on addiction. There is no evidence that automatic associations have a causal effect, but there is some evidence that automatic action-tendencies do have a causal effect. Current neurocognitive views on the dual process model of addiction can be integrated with an evidence-based approach to addiction and with psychodynamic views on addiction.

  17. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  18. Integrated Space Asset Management Database and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagliano, L.; MacLeod, T.; Mason, S.; Percy, T.; Prescott, J.

    The Space Asset Management Database (SAM-D) was implemented in order to effectively track known objects in space by ingesting information from a variety of databases and performing calculations to determine the expected position of the object at a specified time. While SAM-D performs this task very well, it is limited by technology and is not available outside of the local user base. Modeling and simulation can be powerful tools to exploit the information contained in SAM-D. However, the current system does not allow proper integration options for combining the data with both legacy and new M&S tools. A more capable data management infrastructure would extend SAM-D to support the larger data sets to be generated by the COI. A service-oriented architecture model will allow it to easily expand to incorporate new capabilities, including advanced analytics, M&S tools, fusion techniques and user interface for visualizations. Based on a web-centric approach, the entire COI will be able to access the data and related analytics. In addition, tight control of information sharing policy will increase confidence in the system, which would encourage industry partners to provide commercial data. SIMON is a Government off the Shelf information sharing platform in use throughout DoD and DHS information sharing and situation awareness communities. SIMON providing fine grained control to data owners allowing them to determine exactly how and when their data is shared. SIMON supports a micro-service approach to system development, meaning M&S and analytic services can be easily built or adapted. It is uniquely positioned to fill this need as an information-sharing platform with a proven track record of successful situational awareness system deployments. Combined with the integration of new and legacy M&S tools, a SIMON-based architecture will provide a robust SA environment for the NASA SA COI that can be extended and expanded indefinitely. First Results of Coherent Uplink from a

  19. An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, P.J.F.M.; Knapen, M.J.R.; Winter, de W.P.; Wien, J.J.F.; Roller, te J.A.; Sieber, S.; Jansen, J.M.L.

    2010-01-01

    Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by

  20. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  1. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-01-01

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

  2. Single bumps in a 2-population homogenized neuronal network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodina, Karina; Oleynik, Anna; Wyller, John

    2018-05-01

    We investigate existence and stability of single bumps in a homogenized 2-population neural field model, when the firing rate functions are given by the Heaviside function. The model is derived by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity functions. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. The bump solutions are constructed by using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable. In the weakly modulated case the generic picture consists of two bumps (one narrow and one broad bump) for each admissible set of threshold values for firing. In addition, a new threshold value regime for existence of bumps is detected. Beyond the weakly modulated regime the number of bumps depends sensitively on the degree of heterogeneity. For the latter case we present a configuration consisting of three coexisting bumps. The linear stability of the bumps is studied by means of the spectral properties of a Fredholm integral operator, block diagonalization of this operator and the Fourier decomposition method. In the weakly modulated regime, one of the bumps is unstable for all relative inhibition times, while the other one is stable for small and moderate values of this parameter. The latter bump becomes unstable as the relative inhibition time exceeds a certain threshold. In the case of the three coexisting bumps detected in the regime of finite degree of heterogeneity, we have at least one stable bump (and maximum two stable bumps) for small and moderate values of the relative inhibition time.

  3. Integrated genetic linkage map of cultivated peanut by three RIL populations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanbin Song; Huifang Jiang; Huaiyong Luo; Li Huang; Yuning Chen; Weigang Chen; Nian Liu; Xiaoping Ren; Bolun Yu; Jianbin Guo

    2017-01-01

    High-density and precise genetic linkage map is fundamental to detect quanti-tative trait locus (QTL) of agronomic and quality related traits in cultivated peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.). In this study, three linkage maps from three RIL (recombinant inbred line) populations were used to construct an integrated map. A total of 2,069 SSR and transposon markers were anchored on the high-density integrated map which covered 2,231.53 cM with 20 linkage groups. Totally, 92 QTLs correlating with pod length (PL), pod width (PW), hun-dred pods weight (HPW) and plant height (PH) from above RIL populations were mapped on it. Seven intervals were found to harbor QTLs controlling the same traits in different pop-ulations, including one for PL, three for PW, two for HPW, and one for PH. Besides, QTLs controlling different traits in different populations were found to be overlapped in four inter-vals. Interval on A05 contains 17 QTLs for different traits from two RIL populations. New markers were added to these intervals to detect QTLs with narrow confidential intervals. Results obtained in this study may facilitate future genomic researches such as QTL study, fine mapping, positional cloning and marker-assisted selection (MAS) in peanut.

  4. Integrating semantic data models with project management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wachter, R

    1982-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The development of a data model for a project on the test and certification of computer-based information systems required a more expressive data model than that supplied by either the network, hierarchical or relational models. A data model was developed to describe the work environment and the work itself. This model is based on the entity-relationship data model of Chen and on heuristic principles of knowledge organisation used in artificial intelligence. The ER data model is reviewed and the extensions to the model are discussed.

  5. Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

    2017-01-01

    The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km2) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

  6. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  7. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  8. The Ambulatory Integration of the Medical and Social (AIMS) model: A retrospective evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Jeannine M; Rizzo, Victoria M; Shier Kricke, Gayle; Krajci, Kate; Rodriguez-Morales, Grisel; Newman, Michelle; Golden, Robyn

    2016-01-01

    An exploratory, retrospective evaluation of Ambulatory Integration of the Medical and Social (AIMS), a care coordination model designed to integrate medical and non-medical needs of patients and delivered exclusively by social workers was conducted to examine mean utilization of costly health care services for older adult patients. Results reveal mean utilization of 30-day hospital readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospital admissions are significantly lower for the study sample compared to the larger patient population. Comparisons with national population statistics reveal significantly lower mean utilization of 30-day admissions and ED visits for the study sample. The findings offer preliminary support regarding the value of AIMS.

  9. Libraries as a means for the integration of immigrant populations in Ávila province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Jesús Romera Iruela

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Public libraries can be considered as suitable agents and places for the integration of immigrant population. Therefore, services and programs should be developed in order to give an adequate answer to their needs. This article provides some research findings for the information needs of immigrants at Ávila province. These needs are detected from three different perspectives: public libraries, educational centers, and immigrant associations. The data were collected, using ad-hoc questionnaires, in the districts and municipalities with largest immigrant presence. Several intercultural actions directed to the integration of this population are suggested in this research. Thus, amongst others, the need of a Web site with thematic information on the design of cooperative programs on intercultural education between public libraries and scholar libraries, involving both parents of immigrant students and immigrants associations

  10. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization WRM and response variables in the ... to the fast growing demand of urban and rural populations ... Meteorological Organization (WMO). They fall.

  11. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  12. Toward an Integrative Model of Professional Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Margaret A.

    1990-01-01

    The cycles of growth of the nursing profession depict subordination of nursing to hospital administration and medicine. Nursing is ready to move into an integrative, collaborative stage of development that places nurses directly responsible to patients, and this would facilitate nursing's response to clients' health concerns wherever they occur.…

  13. The Kurzweil integral in financial market modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Lamba, H.; Monteiro, Giselle Antunes; Rachinskii, D.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 141, č. 2 (2016), s. 261-286 ISSN 0862-7959 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-12227S Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : hysteresis * Prandtl-Ishlinskii operator * Kurzweil integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://hdl.handle.net/10338.dmlcz/145715

  14. Development of Multisensory Integration Approach Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S. Prasanna; Nathan, B. Sami

    2016-01-01

    Every teacher expects optimum level of processing in mind of them students. The level of processing is mainly depends upon memory process. Most of the students have retrieval difficulties on past learning. Memory difficulties directly related to sensory integration. In these circumstances the investigator made an attempt to construct Multisensory…

  15. A Liouville integrable hierarchy, symmetry constraint, new finite-dimensional integrable systems, involutive solution and expanding integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Yepeng; Chen Dengyuan

    2006-01-01

    A new spectral problem and the associated integrable hierarchy of nonlinear evolution equations are presented in this paper. It is shown that the hierarchy is completely integrable in the Liouville sense and possesses bi-Hamiltonian structure. An explicit symmetry constraint is proposed for the Lax pairs and the adjoint Lax pairs of the hierarchy. Moreover, the corresponding Lax pairs and adjoint Lax pairs are nonlinearized into a hierarchy of commutative, new finite-dimensional completely integrable Hamiltonian systems in the Liouville sense. Further, an involutive representation of solution of each equation in the hierarchy is given. Finally, expanding integrable models of the hierarchy are constructed by using a new Loop algebra

  16. Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-01-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes

  17. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  18. Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

    -mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

  19. KEEFEKTIFAN MODEL CONNECTED DAN INTEGRATED DALAM PEMBELAJARAN IPS SMP DI KOTA YOGYAKARTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idrus idrus

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to: (1 analyze the differences in social studies learning achievement between the students using connected and integrated models and those using conventional model; and (2 analyze the hierarchy of the effect of the learning models  among the connected, integrated, and conventional. This experimental research employed a matching post-test comparison group design. The population of this research was National Standardized Schools of Junior Secondary Schools in Yogyakarta. The technique used for sample drawing was multistage sampling. In this research, the independent variable was the learning model which consisted of three categories: integrated, connected, and conventional models. The dependent variable was the mean score of students’ learning achievement in social studies subject. Data collection was done by means of an achievement test. Instrument validation was done by discriminating power and difficulty index, while the reliability was calculated by KR-20. The pre-requisite  test included normality and homogeneity tests. The normality test used Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the homogeneity test used Levene Test. Data were analyzed in one way anova analysis and continued with Scheffe comparison test on the significance level of 0.05. The results of the experiment show that there are  significant difference among the students’ learning achievement who used integrated, connected, and conventional models. The continued test using Scheffe ensured that the integrated model was more effective than the connected and conventional models, while the connected model was more effective in improving the students’ learning achievement in social studies subject compared with the conventional model. Therefore, the hierarchy of the effect of the learning models is first the integrated model followed by connected and conventional models. Key words: Connected, Integrated Models, Social Studies Learning

  20. Psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of right uncinate fasciculus in a community population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobhani, Mona; Baker, Laura; Martins, Bradford; Tuvblad, Catherine; Aziz-Zadeh, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    Individuals with psychopathy possess emotional and behavioral abnormalities. Two neural regions, involved in behavioral control and emotion regulation, are often implicated: amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). Recently, in studies using adult criminal populations, reductions in microstructural integrity of the white matter connections (i.e., uncinate fasciculus (UF)) between these two neural regions have been discovered in criminals with psychopathy, supporting the notion of neural dysfunction in the amygdala-VMPFC circuit. Here, a young adult, community sample is used to assess whether psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of UF, and whether this relationship is dependent upon levels of trait anxiety, which is sometimes used to distinguish subtypes of psychopathy. Results reveal a negative association between psychopathic traits and microstructural integrity of UF, supporting previous findings. However, no moderation of the relationship by trait anxiety was discovered. Findings provide further support for the notion of altered amygdala-VMPFC connectivity in association with higher psychopathic traits.

  1. Psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of right uncinate fasciculus in a community population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona Sobhani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with psychopathy possess emotional and behavioral abnormalities. Two neural regions, involved in behavioral control and emotion regulation, are often implicated: amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC. Recently, in studies using adult criminal populations, reductions in microstructural integrity of the white matter connections (i.e., uncinate fasciculus (UF between these two neural regions have been discovered in criminals with psychopathy, supporting the notion of neural dysfunction in the amygdala–VMPFC circuit. Here, a young adult, community sample is used to assess whether psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of UF, and whether this relationship is dependent upon levels of trait anxiety, which is sometimes used to distinguish subtypes of psychopathy. Results reveal a negative association between psychopathic traits and microstructural integrity of UF, supporting previous findings. However, no moderation of the relationship by trait anxiety was discovered. Findings provide further support for the notion of altered amygdala–VMPFC connectivity in association with higher psychopathic traits.

  2. Integrating Behaviour in Software Models: An Event Coordination Notation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2011-01-01

    One of the main problems in model-based software engineering is modelling behaviour in such a way that the behaviour models can be easily integrated with each other, with the structural software models and with pre-existing software. In this paper, we propose an event coordination notation (ECNO)...

  3. Towards Finite-Gap Integration of the Inozemtsev Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kouichi Takemura

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The Inozemtsev model is considered to be a multivaluable generalization of Heun's equation. We review results on Heun's equation, the elliptic Calogero-Moser-Sutherland model and the Inozemtsev model, and discuss some approaches to the finite-gap integration for multivariable models.

  4. The dynamics of multimodal integration: The averaging diffusion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brandon M; Gao, Juan; Koenig, Scott; Palfy, Dylan; L McClelland, James

    2017-12-01

    We combine extant theories of evidence accumulation and multi-modal integration to develop an integrated framework for modeling multimodal integration as a process that unfolds in real time. Many studies have formulated sensory processing as a dynamic process where noisy samples of evidence are accumulated until a decision is made. However, these studies are often limited to a single sensory modality. Studies of multimodal stimulus integration have focused on how best to combine different sources of information to elicit a judgment. These studies are often limited to a single time point, typically after the integration process has occurred. We address these limitations by combining the two approaches. Experimentally, we present data that allow us to study the time course of evidence accumulation within each of the visual and auditory domains as well as in a bimodal condition. Theoretically, we develop a new Averaging Diffusion Model in which the decision variable is the mean rather than the sum of evidence samples and use it as a base for comparing three alternative models of multimodal integration, allowing us to assess the optimality of this integration. The outcome reveals rich individual differences in multimodal integration: while some subjects' data are consistent with adaptive optimal integration, reweighting sources of evidence as their relative reliability changes during evidence integration, others exhibit patterns inconsistent with optimality.

  5. Plasma Process Modeling for Integrated Circuits Manufacturing

    OpenAIRE

    M. Meyyappan; T. R. Govindan

    1998-01-01

    A reactor model for plasma-based deposition and etching is presented. Two-dimensional results are discussed in terms of plasma density, ion flux, and ion energy. Approaches to develop rapid CAD-type models are discussed.

  6. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  7. An Integrative Model of Internationalization Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Gammelgaard, Jens

    2012-01-01

    This paper critically reviews the ownership, location, and internalization (OLI) model, and the Uppsala internationalization process (UIP) framework. Both the OLI model and the UIP model ignore to incorporate the insights of each other and fail to include corporate entrepreneurship in their analy...

  8. Integration models: multicultural and liberal approaches confronted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicki, Wojciech

    2012-01-01

    European societies have been shaped by their Christian past, upsurge of international migration, democratic rule and liberal tradition rooted in religious tolerance. Boosting globalization processes impose new challenges on European societies, striving to protect their diversity. This struggle is especially clearly visible in case of minorities trying to resist melting into mainstream culture. European countries' legal systems and cultural policies respond to these efforts in many ways. Respecting identity politics-driven group rights seems to be the most common approach, resulting in creation of a multicultural society. However, the outcome of respecting group rights may be remarkably contradictory to both individual rights growing out from liberal tradition, and to reinforced concept of integration of immigrants into host societies. The hereby paper discusses identity politics upturn in the context of both individual rights and integration of European societies.

  9. Integrating population genetics and conservation biology in the era of genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouborg, N Joop

    2010-02-23

    As one of the final activities of the ESF-CONGEN Networking programme, a conference entitled 'Integrating Population Genetics and Conservation Biology' was held at Trondheim, Norway, from 23 to 26 May 2009. Conference speakers and poster presenters gave a display of the state-of-the-art developments in the field of conservation genetics. Over the five-year running period of the successful ESF-CONGEN Networking programme, much progress has been made in theoretical approaches, basic research on inbreeding depression and other genetic processes associated with habitat fragmentation and conservation issues, and with applying principles of conservation genetics in the conservation of many species. Future perspectives were also discussed in the conference, and it was concluded that conservation genetics is evolving into conservation genomics, while at the same time basic and applied research on threatened species and populations from a population genetic point of view continues to be emphasized.

  10. Integrating population health into a family medicine clerkship: 7 years of evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unverzagt, Mark; Wallerstein, Nina; Benson, Jeffrey A; Tomedi, Angelo; Palley, Toby B

    2003-01-01

    A population health curriculum using methodologies from community-oriented primary care (COPC) was developed in 1994 as part of a required third-year family medicine clerkship at the University of New Mexico. The curriculum integrates population health/community medicine projects and problem-based tutorials into a community-based, ambulatory clinical experience. By combining a required population health experience with relevant clinical training, student careers have the opportunity to be influenced during the critical third year. Results over a 7-year period describe a three-phase evolution of the curriculum, within the context of changes in medical education and in health care delivery systems in that same period of time. Early evaluation revealed that students viewed the curricular experience as time consuming and peripheral to their training. Later comments on the revised curriculum showed a higher regard for the experience that was described as important for student learning.

  11. Model integration and the economics of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundgren, S.

    1985-01-01

    The author proposes and applies a specific approach to model integration, i.e. the merger of two or several independently developed models. The approach is intended for integrations of activity analysis sector models and applied general equilibrium models. Model integration makes it possible to extend the range of applicability of applied general equilibrium models by exploiting the information contained in sector models. It also makes it possible to evaluate the validity of the partial equilibrium analyses in which sector models often are employed. The proposed approach is used to integrate a sector model of electricity and heat production with a general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy. Both models have been constructed within the research programme. The author uses the integrated model to look at two issues concerning the role of nuclear power on the Swedish electricity market: What are the likely consequences of a nuclear power discontinuation and how does the nuclear power investment programme of the 1970's and the early 1980's compare with a socially efficient one. (Author)

  12. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  13. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  14. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  15. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  16. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

  17. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

  19. Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

    OpenAIRE

    Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

  20. Population-averaged macaque brain atlas with high-resolution ex vivo DTI integrated into in vivo space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Lei; Jeon, Tina; Yu, Qiaowen; Ouyang, Minhui; Peng, Qinmu; Mishra, Virendra; Pletikos, Mihovil; Sestan, Nenad; Miller, Michael I; Mori, Susumu; Hsiao, Steven; Liu, Shuwei; Huang, Hao

    2017-12-01

    Animal models of the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta), the most widely used nonhuman primate, have been irreplaceable in neurobiological studies. However, a population-averaged macaque brain diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) atlas, including comprehensive gray and white matter labeling as well as bony and facial landmarks guiding invasive experimental procedures, is not available. The macaque white matter tract pathways and microstructures have been rarely recorded. Here, we established a population-averaged macaque brain atlas with high-resolution ex vivo DTI integrated into in vivo space incorporating bony and facial landmarks, and delineated microstructures and three-dimensional pathways of major white matter tracts in vivo MRI/DTI and ex vivo (postmortem) DTI of ten rhesus macaque brains were acquired. Single-subject macaque brain DTI template was obtained by transforming the postmortem high-resolution DTI data into in vivo space. Ex vivo DTI of ten macaque brains was then averaged in the in vivo single-subject template space to generate population-averaged macaque brain DTI atlas. The white matter tracts were traced with DTI-based tractography. One hundred and eighteen neural structures including all cortical gyri, white matter tracts and subcortical nuclei, were labeled manually on population-averaged DTI-derived maps. The in vivo microstructural metrics of fractional anisotropy, axial, radial and mean diffusivity of the traced white matter tracts were measured. Population-averaged digital atlas integrated into in vivo space can be used to label the experimental macaque brain automatically. Bony and facial landmarks will be available for guiding invasive procedures. The DTI metric measurements offer unique insights into heterogeneous microstructural profiles of different white matter tracts.

  1. A Few Expanding Integrable Models, Hamiltonian Structures and Constrained Flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yufeng

    2011-01-01

    Two kinds of higher-dimensional Lie algebras and their loop algebras are introduced, for which a few expanding integrable models including the coupling integrable couplings of the Broer-Kaup (BK) hierarchy and the dispersive long wave (DLW) hierarchy as well as the TB hierarchy are obtained. From the reductions of the coupling integrable couplings, the corresponding coupled integrable couplings of the BK equation, the DLW equation, and the TB equation are obtained, respectively. Especially, the coupling integrable coupling of the TB equation reduces to a few integrable couplings of the well-known mKdV equation. The Hamiltonian structures of the coupling integrable couplings of the three kinds of soliton hierarchies are worked out, respectively, by employing the variational identity. Finally, we decompose the BK hierarchy of evolution equations into x-constrained flows and t n -constrained flows whose adjoint representations and the Lax pairs are given. (general)

  2. Multi-dimensional population balance models of crystallization processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meisler, Kresten Troelstrup; von Solms, Nicolas

    A generic and model-based framework for batch cooling crystallization operations has been extended to incorporate continuous and fed-batch processes. Modules for the framework have been developed, including a module for reactions, allowing the study of reactive crystallization within the framework....... A kinetic model library together with an ontology for knowledge representation has been developed, in which kinetic models and relations from the literature are stored along with the references and data. The model library connects to the generic modelling framework as well, as models can be retrieved......, analyzed, used for simulation and stored again. The model library facilitates comparison of expressions for kinetic phenomena and is tightly integrated with the model analysis tools of the framework.Through the framework, a model for a crystallization operation may be systematically generated...

  3. Modular Architecture for Integrated Model-Based Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebel, Jan; Schreiber, Erik; Oeser, Alexander; Oeltze-Jafra, Steffen

    2018-01-01

    Model-based decision support systems promise to be a valuable addition to oncological treatments and the implementation of personalized therapies. For the integration and sharing of decision models, the involved systems must be able to communicate with each other. In this paper, we propose a modularized architecture of dedicated systems for the integration of probabilistic decision models into existing hospital environments. These systems interconnect via web services and provide model sharing and processing capabilities for clinical information systems. Along the lines of IHE integration profiles from other disciplines and the meaningful reuse of routinely recorded patient data, our approach aims for the seamless integration of decision models into hospital infrastructure and the physicians' daily work.

  4. Model-Based Integration and Interpretation of Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Johannes

    2004-01-01

    Data integration and interpretation plays a crucial role in supervisory control. The paper defines a set of generic inference steps for the data integration and interpretation process based on a three-layer model of system representations. The three-layer model is used to clarify the combination...... of constraint and object-centered representations of the work domain throwing new light on the basic principles underlying the data integration and interpretation process of Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy as well as other model-based approaches combining constraint and object-centered representations. Based...

  5. Integration of Design and Control through Model Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Russel, Boris Mariboe; Henriksen, Jens Peter; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2002-01-01

    A systematic computer aided analysis of the process model is proposed as a pre-solution step for integration of design and control problems. The process model equations are classified in terms of balance equations, constitutive equations and conditional equations. Analysis of the phenomena models...... (structure selection) issues for the integrated problems are considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....... representing the constitutive equations identify the relationships between the important process and design variables, which help to understand, define and address some of the issues related to integration of design and control. Furthermore, the analysis is able to identify a set of process (control) variables...

  6. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  7. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  8. Non-integrable quantum field theories as perturbations of certain integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delfino, G.; Simonetti, P.

    1996-03-01

    We approach the study of non-integrable models of two-dimensional quantum field theory as perturbations of the integrable ones. By exploiting the knowledge of the exact S-matrix and Form Factors of the integrable field theories we obtain the first order corrections to the mass ratios, the vacuum energy density and the S-matrix of the non-integrable theories. As interesting applications of the formalism, we study the scaling region of the Ising model in an external magnetic field at T ∼ T c and the scaling region around the minimal model M 2 , τ . For these models, a remarkable agreement is observed between the theoretical predictions and the data extracted by a numerical diagonalization of their Hamiltonian. (author). 41 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  9. Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

  10. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  11. An integrated model for supplier selection process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In today's highly competitive manufacturing environment, the supplier selection process becomes one of crucial activities in supply chain management. In order to select the best supplier(s) it is not only necessary to continuously tracking and benchmarking performance of suppliers but also to make a tradeoff between tangible and intangible factors some of which may conflict. In this paper an integration of case-based reasoning (CBR), analytical network process (ANP) and linear programming (LP) is proposed to solve the supplier selection problem.

  12. Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration stakeholder involvement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaupanger, R.M.; Kostelnik, K.M.; Milam, L.M.

    1994-04-01

    The Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration (BWID) is a program funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Technology Development. BWID supports the applied research, development, demonstration, and evaluation of a suite of advanced technologies that together form a comprehensive remediation system for the effective and efficient remediation of buried waste. Stakeholder participation in the DOE Environmental Management decision-making process is critical to remediation efforts. Appropriate mechanisms for communication with the public, private sector, regulators, elected officials, and others are being aggressively pursued by BWID to permit informed participation. This document summarizes public outreach efforts during FY-93 and presents a strategy for expanded stakeholder involvement during FY-94

  13. Continual integration method in the polaron model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kochetov, E.A.; Kuleshov, S.P.; Smondyrev, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    The article is devoted to the investigation of a polaron system on the base of a variational approach formulated on the language of continuum integration. The variational method generalizing the Feynman one for the case of the system pulse different from zero has been formulated. The polaron state has been investigated at zero temperature. A problem of the bound state of two polarons exchanging quanta of a scalar field as well as a problem of polaron scattering with an external field in the Born approximation have been considered. Thermodynamics of the polaron system has been investigated, namely, high-temperature expansions for mean energy and effective polaron mass have been studied [ru

  14. Integrated Spatio-Temporal Ecological Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-07-01

    models that we hold in our conscious (and subconscious ) minds. Chapter 3 explores how this approach is being augmented with the more formal capture...This approach makes it possible to add new simulation model components to I- STEMS without having to reprogram existing components. The steps required

  15. Owen's Intentionality Model in Integrative Psychotherapy

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    denise

    The IPJP is a joint project of the Humanities Faculty of the University of Johannesburg (South Africa) and Edith Cowan ... Talk, Action, Belief: How the Intentionality Model Combines Attachment-Oriented .... application of the intentionality model in relation to ... Dr Guse's research interests include the training of psychologists,.

  16. Integrated catchment modelling in a Semi-arid area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bugan, Richard DH

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available , will increasingly need water quality and quantity management tools to be able to make informed decisions. Integrated catchment modelling (ICM) is regarded as being a valuable tool for integrated water resource management. It enables officials and scientists to make...

  17. The Intersystem Model of Psychotherapy: An Integrated Systems Treatment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Gerald R.; Cross, Chad L.

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces the intersystem model of psychotherapy and discusses its utility as a truly integrative and comprehensive approach. The foundation of this conceptually complex approach comes from dialectic metatheory; hence, its derivation requires an understanding of both foundational and integrational constructs. The article provides a…

  18. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Linden, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local f...... in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo....

  19. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  20. Integrated modeling of natural and human systems - problems and initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J.; Gunnink, J.; Hughes, A.; Moore, R. V.; Peach, D.

    2009-12-01

    Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK and the Netherlands, for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and “predictions”. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey and the Geological Survey of the Netherlands have developed standard routines to link geological data to groundwater models, but these models are only aimed at solving one specific part of the earth

  1. An integrated development environment for PMESII model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pioch, Nicholas J.; Lofdahl, Corey; Sao Pedro, Michael; Krikeles, Basil; Morley, Liam

    2007-04-01

    To foster shared battlespace awareness in Air Operations Centers supporting the Joint Forces Commander and Joint Force Air Component Commander, BAE Systems is developing a Commander's Model Integration and Simulation Toolkit (CMIST), an Integrated Development Environment (IDE) for model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging. CMIST is built on the versatile Eclipse framework, a widely used open development platform comprised of extensible frameworks that enable development of tools for building, deploying, and managing software. CMIST provides two distinct layers: 1) a Commander's IDE for supporting staff to author models spanning the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) taxonomy; integrate multiple native (third-party) models; validate model interfaces and outputs; and debug the integrated models via intuitive controls and time series visualization, and 2) a PMESII IDE for modeling and simulation developers to rapidly incorporate new native simulation tools and models to make them available for use in the Commander's IDE. The PMESII IDE provides shared ontologies and repositories for world state, modeling concepts, and native tool characterization. CMIST includes extensible libraries for 1) reusable data transforms for semantic alignment of native data with the shared ontology, and 2) interaction patterns to synchronize multiple native simulations with disparate modeling paradigms, such as continuous-time system dynamics, agent-based discrete event simulation, and aggregate solution methods such as Monte Carlo sampling over dynamic Bayesian networks. This paper describes the CMIST system architecture, our technical approach to addressing these semantic alignment and synchronization problems, and initial results from integrating Political-Military-Economic models of post-war Iraq spanning multiple modeling paradigms.

  2. Exploring RNA structure by integrative molecular modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masquida, Benoît; Beckert, Bertrand; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2010-01-01

    RNA molecular modelling is adequate to rapidly tackle the structure of RNA molecules. With new structured RNAs constituting a central class of cellular regulators discovered every year, the need for swift and reliable modelling methods is more crucial than ever. The pragmatic method based...... on interactive all-atom molecular modelling relies on the observation that specific structural motifs are recurrently found in RNA sequences. Once identified by a combination of comparative sequence analysis and biochemical data, the motifs composing the secondary structure of a given RNA can be extruded...

  3. HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC MODELLING INTEGRATED WITH GIS: A STUDY OF THE ACARAÚ RIVER BASIN – CE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuellson Lopes Cabral

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a case study integrating hydrologic models, hydraulic models and a geographic information system (GIS to delineate flooded areas in the medium-sized Acaraú River Basin in Ceará State, Brazil. The computational tools used were HEC-HMS for hydrologic modelling, HEC-RAS for hydraulic modelling and HEC-GeoRAS for the GIS. The results showed that a substantial portion of the riverine populations of the cities of Sobral, Santana do Acaraú and Groairas were affected by floods. Overall, the flood model satisfactorily represents the affected areas and shows the locations with the greatest flooding.

  4. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  5. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  6. Integrated Visualization Environment for Science Mission Modeling, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA is emphasizing the use of larger, more integrated models in conjunction with systems engineering tools and decision support systems. These tools place a...

  7. Integrated Age-based Krill Model Fish Res 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — An integrated, age-structured model was fitted to different combinations of survey data using two forms of selectivity (logistic or double-logistic) with...

  8. A simple flow-concentration modelling method for integrating water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A simple flow-concentration modelling method for integrating water quality and ... flow requirements are assessed for maintenance low flow, drought low flow ... the instream concentrations of chemical constituents that will arise from different ...

  9. Integrated Care Model Developed by the Rwanda Biomedical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    : Integrated Care Model, psychological Interventions, genocide, ... ate a resurgence of memories from the genocide itself. ... interventions to be available throughout the commemo- .... allows easier accessibility with a strong professionally net-.

  10. Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horton, William

    1996-01-01

    This report documents the Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model GVSI is a top-level analysis tool designed to support engineering tradeoff studies and vehicle design optimization efforts...

  11. Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Eduardo; Elliott, Katie; Snell, Steven; Evans, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The Integrated Main Propulsion System (MPS) Performance Reconstruction process provides the MPS post-flight data files needed for postflight reporting to the project integration management and key customers to verify flight performance. This process/model was used as the baseline for the currently ongoing Space Launch System (SLS) work. The process utilizes several methodologies, including multiple software programs, to model integrated propulsion system performance through space shuttle ascent. It is used to evaluate integrated propulsion systems, including propellant tanks, feed systems, rocket engine, and pressurization systems performance throughout ascent based on flight pressure and temperature data. The latest revision incorporates new methods based on main engine power balance model updates to model higher mixture ratio operation at lower engine power levels.

  12. Integrated Krill Model WG-SAM-14/20

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The integrated modeling framework for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has been extended to include estimates of krill growth consistent with survey data and to...

  13. Logistic Regression Modeling of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources for Integrated Circuits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gravier, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... This thesis draws on available data from the electronics integrated circuit industry to attempt to assess whether statistical modeling offers a viable method for predicting the presence of DMSMS...

  14. An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

  15. Systems Integration Operations/Logistics Model (SOLMOD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogel, L.W.; Joy, D.S.

    1990-01-01

    SOLMOD is a discrete event simulation model written in FORTRAN 77 and operates in a VAX or PC environment. The model emulates the movement and interaction of equipment and radioactive waste as it is processed through the FWMS. SOLMOD can be used to measure the impacts of different operating schedules and rules, system configurations, reliability, availability, maintainability (RAM) considerations, and equipment and other resource availabilities on the performance of processes comprising the FWMS and how these factors combine to determine overall system performance. Model outputs are a series of measurements of the amount and characteristics of waste at selected points in the FWMS and the utilization of resources needed to transport and process the waste. The model results may be reported on a yearly, monthly, weekly, or daily basis to facilitate analysis. 3 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Integrated thermodynamic model for ignition target performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Springer P.T.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available We have derived a 3-dimensional synthetic model for NIF implosion conditions, by predicting and optimizing fits to a broad set of x-ray and nuclear diagnostics obtained on each shot. By matching x-ray images, burn width, neutron time-of-flight ion temperature, yield, and fuel ρr, we obtain nearly unique constraints on conditions in the hotspot and fuel in a model that is entirely consistent with the observables. This model allows us to determine hotspot density, pressure, areal density (ρr, total energy, and other ignition-relevant parameters not available from any single diagnostic. This article describes the model and its application to National Ignition Facility (NIF tritium–hydrogen–deuterium (THD and DT implosion data, and provides an explanation for the large yield and ρr degradation compared to numerical code predictions.

  17. Integrated modeling of software cost and quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rone, K.Y.; Olson, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between cost and quality must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. The balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and the developers with respect to the processes being employed

  18. [Implementing population-based integrated care for a region: a work-in-progress report on the project "Gesundes Kinzigtal"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Helmut; Schmitt, Gwendolyn; Roth, Monika; Stunder, Brigitte

    2011-01-01

    The regional integrated care model "Gesundes Kinzigtal" pursues the idea of integrated health care with special focus on increasing the health gain of the served population. Physicians (general practitioners) and psychotherapists, physiotherapists, hospitals, nursing services, non-profit associations, fitness centers, and health insurance companies work closely together with a regional management company and its programs on prevention and care coordination and enhancement. The 10 year-project is run by a company that was founded by the physician network "MQNK" and "OptiMedis AG", a corporation with public health background specialising in integrated health care. The aim of this project is to enhance prevention and quality of health care for a whole region in a sustainable way, and to decrease costs of care. The article describes the special funding model of the project, the engagement of patients, and the different health and prevention programmes. The programmes and projects are developed, implemented, and evaluated by multidisciplinary teams. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  19. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    by proposing potential subsequent design issues. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, these decisions are typically not connected to the models created during...... integration of formerly disconnected tools improves tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  20. Integration of Design and Control Through Model Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Russel, Boris Mariboe; Henriksen, Jens Peter; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2000-01-01

    of the phenomena models representing the process model identify the relationships between the important process and design variables, which help to understand, define and address some of the issues related to integration of design and control issues. The model analysis is highlighted through examples involving...... processes with mass and/or energy recycle. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  1. Integration of population mobility in the evaluation of air quality measures on local and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhondt, S.; Beckx, C.; Degraeuwe, B.; Lefebvre, W.; Kochan, B.; Bellemans, T.; Int Panis, L.; Macharis, C.; Putman, K.

    2012-11-01

    By focussing on air pollutant concentration levels only, the variation in population mobility is not taken into account when assessing the exposure. Transportation policies have an impact on both concentration levels and mobility patterns. The impact of a fuel price increase policy on population exposure to elemental carbon (EC) was evaluated and compared to the base scenario (current situation), taking into account time-activity patterns - including time in commute. We assessed the effect on exposure of both the change in concentrations and whereabouts. The decrease in exposure due to the fuel price increase using residential information only was limited to areas near highways and urban centres. Integrating population movement, exposures to EC were higher and the decrease in exposure was no longer limited to areas near traffic hotspots. For inhabitants of urban areas, the exposure integrating time-activity patterns was more similar to the residential exposure, as they spent more time in their own neighbourhood. For people living further away from traffic hotspots, the estimated impact of the policy was higher than expected for residential exposure. These people profited both from the higher decrease in concentrations at their work/shop/leisure destinations in more urban areas and, as they have to travel longer, also had a larger gain from the high decrease in concentrations during transport. Therefore, the impact of changing concentrations is underestimated when using residential exposure only. These results show the importance of taking into activity-travel patterns when planning future actions.

  2. Modelling the impact of toxic and disturbance stress on white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsman, John C; Schipper, Aafke M; Lenders, H J Rob; Foppen, Ruud P B; Hendriks, A Jan

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have related breeding success and survival of sea eagles to toxic or non-toxic stress separately. In the present investigation, we analysed single and combined impacts of both toxic and disturbance stress on populations of white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), using an analytical single-species model. Chemical and eco(toxico)logical data reported from laboratory and field studies were used to parameterise and validate the model. The model was applied to assess the impact of ∑PCB, DDE and disturbance stress on the white-tailed eagle population in The Netherlands. Disturbance stress was incorporated through a 1.6% reduction in survival and a 10-50% reduction in reproduction. ∑PCB contamination from 1950 up to 1987 was found to be too high to allow the return of white-tailed eagle as a breeding species in that period. ∑PCB and population trends simulated for 2006-2050 suggest that future population growth is still reduced. Disturbance stress resulted in a reduced population development. The combination of both toxic and disturbance stress varied from a slower population development to a catastrophical reduction in population size, where the main cause was attributed to the reduction in reproduction of 50%. Application of the model was restricted by the current lack of quantitative dose-response relationships between non-toxic stress and survival and reproduction. Nevertheless, the model provides a first step towards integrating and quantifying the impacts of multiple stressors on white-tailed eagle populations.

  3. Constrained KP models as integrable matrix hierarchies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aratyn, H.; Ferreira, L.A.; Gomes, J.F.; Zimerman, A.H.

    1997-01-01

    We formulate the constrained KP hierarchy (denoted by cKP K+1,M ) as an affine [cflx sl](M+K+1) matrix integrable hierarchy generalizing the Drinfeld endash Sokolov hierarchy. Using an algebraic approach, including the graded structure of the generalized Drinfeld endash Sokolov hierarchy, we are able to find several new universal results valid for the cKP hierarchy. In particular, our method yields a closed expression for the second bracket obtained through Dirac reduction of any untwisted affine Kac endash Moody current algebra. An explicit example is given for the case [cflx sl](M+K+1), for which a closed expression for the general recursion operator is also obtained. We show how isospectral flows are characterized and grouped according to the semisimple non-regular element E of sl(M+K+1) and the content of the center of the kernel of E. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  4. Integrative Modeling of Electrical Properties of Pacemaker Cardiac Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigoriev, M.; Babich, L.

    2016-06-01

    This work represents modeling of electrical properties of pacemaker (sinus) cardiac cells. Special attention is paid to electrical potential arising from transmembrane current of Na+, K+ and Ca2+ ions. This potential is calculated using the NaCaX model. In this respect, molar concentration of ions in the intercellular space which is calculated on the basis of the GENTEX model is essential. Combined use of two different models allows referring this approach to integrative modeling.

  5. Metal-rich, Metal-poor: Updated Stellar Population Models for Old Stellar Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, Charlie; Villaume, Alexa; van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Lind, Karin

    2018-02-01

    We present updated stellar population models appropriate for old ages (>1 Gyr) and covering a wide range in metallicities (‑1.5 ≲ [Fe/H] ≲ 0.3). These models predict the full spectral variation associated with individual element abundance variation as a function of metallicity and age. The models span the optical–NIR wavelength range (0.37–2.4 μm), include a range of initial mass functions, and contain the flexibility to vary 18 individual elements including C, N, O, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, and Fe. To test the fidelity of the models, we fit them to integrated light optical spectra of 41 Galactic globular clusters (GCs). The value of testing models against GCs is that their ages, metallicities, and detailed abundance patterns have been derived from the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram in combination with high-resolution spectroscopy of individual stars. We determine stellar population parameters from fits to all wavelengths simultaneously (“full spectrum fitting”), and demonstrate explicitly with mock tests that this approach produces smaller uncertainties at fixed signal-to-noise ratio than fitting a standard set of 14 line indices. Comparison of our integrated-light results to literature values reveals good agreement in metallicity, [Fe/H]. When restricting to GCs without prominent blue horizontal branch populations, we also find good agreement with literature values for ages, [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [Ti/Fe].

  6. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up cha...

  7. Integrated Control Modeling for Propulsion Systems Using NPSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Khary I.; Felder, James L.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Yu, Albert Y.; Lehmann, William V. A.

    2004-01-01

    The Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), an advanced engineering simulation environment used to design and analyze aircraft engines, has been enhanced by integrating control development tools into it. One of these tools is a generic controller interface that allows NPSS to communicate with control development software environments such as MATLAB and EASY5. The other tool is a linear model generator (LMG) that gives NPSS the ability to generate linear, time-invariant state-space models. Integrating these tools into NPSS enables it to be used for control system development. This paper will discuss the development and integration of these tools into NPSS. In addition, it will show a comparison of transient model results of a generic, dual-spool, military-type engine model that has been implemented in NPSS and Simulink. It will also show the linear model generator s ability to approximate the dynamics of a nonlinear NPSS engine model.

  8. Integrative change model in psychotherapy: Perspectives from Indian thought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manickam, L S S

    2013-01-01

    Different psychotherapeutic approaches claim positive changes in patients as a result of therapy. Explanations related to the change process led to different change models. Some of the change models are experimentally oriented whereas some are theoretical. Apart from the core models of behavioral, psychodynamic, humanistic, cognitive and spiritually oriented models there are specific models, within psychotherapy that explains the change process. Integrative theory of a person as depicted in Indian thought provides a common ground for the integration of various therapies. Integrative model of change based on Indian thought, with specific reference to psychological concepts in Upanishads, Ayurveda, Bhagavad Gita and Yoga are presented. Appropriate psychological tools may be developed in order to help the clinicians to choose the techniques that match the problem and the origin of the dimension. Explorations have to be conducted to develop more techniques that are culturally appropriate and clinically useful. Research has to be initiated to validate the identified concepts.

  9. Integration of QSAR models for bioconcentration suitable for REACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gissi, Andrea; Nicolotti, Orazio; Carotti, Angelo; Gadaleta, Domenico; Lombardo, Anna; Benfenati, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship) models can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce animal test required by REACH. In particular, some endpoints such as bioconcentration factor (BCF) are easier to predict and many useful models have been already developed. In this paper we describe how to integrate two popular BCF models to obtain more reliable predictions. In particular, the herein presented integrated model relies on the predictions of two among the most used BCF models (CAESAR and Meylan), together with the Applicability Domain Index (ADI) provided by the software VEGA. Using a set of simple rules, the integrated model selects the most reliable and conservative predictions and discards possible outliers. In this way, for the prediction of the 851 compounds included in the ANTARES BCF dataset, the integrated model discloses a R 2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.80, a RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 0.61 log units and a sensitivity of 76%, with a considerable improvement in respect to the CAESAR (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 0.84 log units; sensitivity 55%) and Meylan (R 2 = 0.66; RMSE = 0.77 log units; sensitivity 65%) without discarding too many predictions (118 out of 851). Importantly, considering solely the compounds within the new integrated ADI, the R 2 increased to 0.92, and the sensitivity to 85%, with a RMSE of 0.44 log units. Finally, the use of properly set safety thresholds applied for monitoring the so called “suspicious” compounds, which are those chemicals predicted in proximity of the border normally accepted to discern non-bioaccumulative from bioaccumulative substances, permitted to obtain an integrated model with sensitivity equal to 100%. - Highlights: • Applying two independent QSAR models for bioconcentration factor increases the prediction. • The concordance of the models is an important component of the integration. • The measurement of the applicability domain improves the prediction. • The use of a

  10. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  11. Learning with Admixture: Modeling, Optimization, and Applications in Population Genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Jade Yu

    2016-01-01

    the foundation for both CoalHMM and Ohana. Optimization modeling has been the main theme throughout my PhD, and it will continue to shape my work for the years to come. The algorithms and software I developed to study historical admixture and population evolution fall into a larger family of machine learning...... geneticists strive to establish working solutions to extract information from massive volumes of biological data. The steep increase in the quantity and quality of genomic data during the past decades provides a unique opportunity but also calls for new and improved algorithms and software to cope...... including population splits, effective population sizes, gene flow, etc. Since joining the CoalHMM development team in 2014, I have mainly contributed in two directions: 1) improving optimizations through heuristic-based evolutionary algorithms and 2) modeling of historical admixture events. Ohana, meaning...

  12. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  13. High-resolution modelling of health impacts from air pollution using the integrated model system EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Silver, Jeremy D.

    2014-05-01

    A high-resolution assessment of health impacts from air pollution and related external cost has been conducted for Denmark using the integrated EVA model system. The EVA system has been further developed by implementing an air quality model with a 1 km x 1 km resolution covering the whole of Denmark. New developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over several decades. Furthermore, the sensitivity of health impacts to model resolution will be studied. We have developed an integrated model system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. In Brandt et al. (2013a; 2013b), the EVA system was used to assess the impacts in Europe and Denmark from the past, present and future total air pollution levels as well as the contribution from the major anthropogenic emission sectors. The EVA system was applied using the hemispheric chemistry-transport model, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), with nesting capability for higher resolution over Europe (50 km x 50 km) and Northern Europe (16.7 km x 16.7 km). In this study an Urban Background Model (UBM) has been further developed to cover the whole of Denmark with a 1 km x 1 km resolution and the model has been implemented as a part of the integrated model system, EVA. The EVA system is based on the impact-pathway methodology. The site-specific emissions will result (via atmospheric transport and chemistry) in a concentration distribution, which together with detailed population data, are used to estimate the population-level exposure. Using exposure-response functions and economic valuations, the exposure is transformed into impacts on human health and related external costs. In this study

  14. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  15. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  16. Quantum integrable models of field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faddeev, L.D.

    1979-01-01

    Fundamental features of the classical method of the inverse problem have been formulated in the form which is convenient for its quantum reformulation. Typical examples are studied which may help to formulate the quantum method of the inverse problem. Examples are considered for interaction with both attraction and repulsion at a final density. The sine-Gordon model and the XYZ model from the quantum theory of magnetics are examined in short. It is noted that all the achievements of the one-dimensional mathematical physics as applied to exactly solvable quantum models may be put to an extent within the framework of the quantum method of the inverse problem. Unsolved questions are enumerated and perspectives of applying the inverse problem method are shown

  17. Integrating interactive computational modeling in biology curricula.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Helikar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available While the use of computer tools to simulate complex processes such as computer circuits is normal practice in fields like engineering, the majority of life sciences/biological sciences courses continue to rely on the traditional textbook and memorization approach. To address this issue, we explored the use of the Cell Collective platform as a novel, interactive, and evolving pedagogical tool to foster student engagement, creativity, and higher-level thinking. Cell Collective is a Web-based platform used to create and simulate dynamical models of various biological processes. Students can create models of cells, diseases, or pathways themselves or explore existing models. This technology was implemented in both undergraduate and graduate courses as a pilot study to determine the feasibility of such software at the university level. First, a new (In Silico Biology class was developed to enable students to learn biology by "building and breaking it" via computer models and their simulations. This class and technology also provide a non-intimidating way to incorporate mathematical and computational concepts into a class with students who have a limited mathematical background. Second, we used the technology to mediate the use of simulations and modeling modules as a learning tool for traditional biological concepts, such as T cell differentiation or cell cycle regulation, in existing biology courses. Results of this pilot application suggest that there is promise in the use of computational modeling and software tools such as Cell Collective to provide new teaching methods in biology and contribute to the implementation of the "Vision and Change" call to action in undergraduate biology education by providing a hands-on approach to biology.

  18. Integrating interactive computational modeling in biology curricula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helikar, Tomáš; Cutucache, Christine E; Dahlquist, Lauren M; Herek, Tyler A; Larson, Joshua J; Rogers, Jim A

    2015-03-01

    While the use of computer tools to simulate complex processes such as computer circuits is normal practice in fields like engineering, the majority of life sciences/biological sciences courses continue to rely on the traditional textbook and memorization approach. To address this issue, we explored the use of the Cell Collective platform as a novel, interactive, and evolving pedagogical tool to foster student engagement, creativity, and higher-level thinking. Cell Collective is a Web-based platform used to create and simulate dynamical models of various biological processes. Students can create models of cells, diseases, or pathways themselves or explore existing models. This technology was implemented in both undergraduate and graduate courses as a pilot study to determine the feasibility of such software at the university level. First, a new (In Silico Biology) class was developed to enable students to learn biology by "building and breaking it" via computer models and their simulations. This class and technology also provide a non-intimidating way to incorporate mathematical and computational concepts into a class with students who have a limited mathematical background. Second, we used the technology to mediate the use of simulations and modeling modules as a learning tool for traditional biological concepts, such as T cell differentiation or cell cycle regulation, in existing biology courses. Results of this pilot application suggest that there is promise in the use of computational modeling and software tools such as Cell Collective to provide new teaching methods in biology and contribute to the implementation of the "Vision and Change" call to action in undergraduate biology education by providing a hands-on approach to biology.

  19. A probabilistic model for cell population phenotyping using HCS data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edouard Pauwels

    Full Text Available High Content Screening (HCS platforms allow screening living cells under a wide range of experimental conditions and give access to a whole panel of cellular responses to a specific treatment. The outcome is a series of cell population images. Within these images, the heterogeneity of cellular response to the same treatment leads to a whole range of observed values for the recorded cellular features. Consequently, it is difficult to compare and interpret experiments. Moreover, the definition of phenotypic classes at a cell population level remains an open question, although this would ease experiments analyses. In the present work, we tackle these two questions. The input of the method is a series of cell population images for which segmentation and cellular phenotype classification has already been performed. We propose a probabilistic model to represent and later compare cell populations. The model is able to fully exploit the HCS-specific information: "dependence structure of population descriptors" and "within-population variability". The experiments we carried out illustrate how our model accounts for this specific information, as well as the fact that the model benefits from considering them. We underline that these features allow richer HCS data analysis than simpler methods based on single cellular feature values averaged over each well. We validate an HCS data analysis method based on control experiments. It accounts for HCS specificities that were not taken into account by previous methods but have a sound biological meaning. Biological validation of previously unknown outputs of the method constitutes a future line of work.

  20. Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-11-01

    Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

  1. Population models for time-varying pesticide exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Jong FMW de; Traas TP; LER; SEC

    2007-01-01

    A model has recently been developed at RIVM to predict the effects of variable exposure to pesticides of plant and animal populations in surface water. Before a pesticide is placed on the market, the environmental risk of the substance has to be assessed. This risk is estimated by comparing

  2. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  3. Advanced tokamak research with integrated modeling in JT-60 Upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, N.

    2010-01-01

    Researches on advanced tokamak (AT) have progressed with integrated modeling in JT-60 Upgrade [N. Oyama et al., Nucl. Fusion 49, 104007 (2009)]. Based on JT-60U experimental analyses and first principle simulations, new models were developed and integrated into core, rotation, edge/pedestal, and scrape-off-layer (SOL)/divertor codes. The integrated models clarified complex and autonomous features in AT. An integrated core model was implemented to take account of an anomalous radial transport of alpha particles caused by Alfven eigenmodes. It showed the reduction in the fusion gain by the anomalous radial transport and further escape of alpha particles. Integrated rotation model showed mechanisms of rotation driven by the magnetic-field-ripple loss of fast ions and the charge separation due to fast-ion drift. An inward pinch model of high-Z impurity due to the atomic process was developed and indicated that the pinch velocity increases with the toroidal rotation. Integrated edge/pedestal model clarified causes of collisionality dependence of energy loss due to the edge localized mode and the enhancement of energy loss by steepening a core pressure gradient just inside the pedestal top. An ideal magnetohydrodynamics stability code was developed to take account of toroidal rotation and clarified a destabilizing effect of rotation on the pedestal. Integrated SOL/divertor model clarified a mechanism of X-point multifaceted asymmetric radiation from edge. A model of the SOL flow driven by core particle orbits which partially enter the SOL was developed by introducing the ion-orbit-induced flow to fluid equations.

  4. Integrability in three dimensions: Algebraic Bethe ansatz for anyonic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. Khachatryan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We extend basic properties of two dimensional integrable models within the Algebraic Bethe Ansatz approach to 2+1 dimensions and formulate the sufficient conditions for the commutativity of transfer matrices of different spectral parameters, in analogy with Yang–Baxter or tetrahedron equations. The basic ingredient of our models is the R-matrix, which describes the scattering of a pair of particles over another pair of particles, the quark-anti-quark (meson scattering on another quark-anti-quark state. We show that the Kitaev model belongs to this class of models and its R-matrix fulfills well-defined equations for integrability.

  5. Arbitrary modeling of TSVs for 3D integrated circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Salah, Khaled; El-Rouby, Alaa

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a wide-band and technology independent, SPICE-compatible RLC model for through-silicon vias (TSVs) in 3D integrated circuits. This model accounts for a variety of effects, including skin effect, depletion capacitance and nearby contact effects. Readers will benefit from in-depth coverage of concepts and technology such as 3D integration, Macro modeling, dimensional analysis and compact modeling, as well as closed form equations for the through silicon via parasitics. Concepts covered are demonstrated by using TSVs in applications such as a spiral inductor?and inductive-based

  6. Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Sluijs, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

  7. RAYLEIGH SCATTERING MODELS WITH CORRELATION INTEGRAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. F. Kolomiets

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article offers one of possible approaches to the use of the classical correlation concept in Rayleigh scattering models. Classical correlation in contrast to three types of correlations corresponding to stochastic point flows opens the door to the efficient explanation of the interaction between periodical structure of incident radiation and discreet stochastic structure of distributed scatters typical for Rayleigh problems.

  8. Integrated Biogeomorphological Modeling Using Delft3D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Q.; Jagers, B.

    2011-12-01

    The skill of numerical morphological models has improved significantly from the early 2D uniform, total load sediment models (with steady state or infrequent wave updates) to recent 3D hydrodynamic models with multiple suspended and bed load sediment fractions and bed stratigraphy (online coupled with waves). Although there remain many open questions within this combined field of hydro- and morphodynamics, we observe an increasing need to include biological processes in the overall dynamics. In riverine and inter-tidal environments, there is often an important influence by riparian vegetation and macrobenthos. Over the past decade more and more researchers have started to extend the simulation environment with wrapper scripts and other quick code hacks to estimate their influence on morphological development in coastal, estuarine and riverine environments. Although one can in this way quickly analyze different approaches, these research tools have generally not been designed with reuse, performance and portability in mind. We have now implemented a reusable, flexible, and efficient two-way link between the Delft3D open source framework for hydrodynamics, waves and morphology, and the water quality and ecology modules. The same link will be used for 1D, 2D and 3D modeling on networks and both structured and unstructured grids. We will describe the concepts of the overall system, and illustrate it with some first results.

  9. Integration of pharmacology, molecular pathology, and population data science to support precision gastrointestinal oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogino, Shuji; Jhun, Iny; Mata, Douglas A; Soong, Thing Rinda; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Liu, Li; Nishihara, Reiko; Giannakis, Marios; Cao, Yin; Manson, JoAnn E; Nowak, Jonathan A; Chan, Andrew T

    2017-01-01

    Precision medicine has a goal of customizing disease prevention and treatment strategies. Under the precision medicine paradigm, each patient has unique pathologic processes resulting from cellular genomic, epigenomic, proteomic, and metabolomic alterations, which are influenced by pharmacological, environmental, microbial, dietary, and lifestyle factors. Hence, to realize the promise of precision medicine, multi-level research methods that can comprehensively analyze many of these variables are needed. In order to address this gap, the integrative field of molecular pathology and population data science (i.e., molecular pathological epidemiology) has been developed to enable such multi-level analyses, especially in gastrointestinal cancer research. Further integration of pharmacology can improve our understanding of drug effects, and inform decision-making of drug use at both the individual and population levels. Such integrative research demonstrated potential benefits of aspirin in colorectal carcinoma with PIK3CA mutations, providing the basis for new clinical trials. Evidence also suggests that HPGD (15-PDGH) expression levels in normal colon and the germline rs6983267 polymorphism that relates to tumor CTNNB1 (β-catenin)/ WNT signaling status may predict the efficacy of aspirin for cancer chemoprevention. As immune checkpoint blockade targeting the CD274 (PD-L1)/ PDCD1 (PD-1) pathway for microsatellite instability-high (or mismatch repair-deficient) metastatic gastrointestinal or other tumors has become standard of care, potential modifying effects of dietary, lifestyle, microbial, and environmental factors on immunotherapy need to be studied to further optimize treatment strategies. With its broad applicability, our integrative approach can provide insights into the interactive role of medications, exposures, and molecular pathology, and guide the development of precision medicine.

  10. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  11. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-01-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)

  12. INTEGRATION OF HETEROGENOUS DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Boesch

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The application of extended digital surface models often reveals, that despite an acceptable global accuracy for a given dataset, the local accuracy of the model can vary in a wide range. For high resolution applications which cover the spatial extent of a whole country, this can be a major drawback. Within the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI, two digital surface models are available, one derived from LiDAR point data and the other from aerial images. Automatic photogrammetric image matching with ADS80 aerial infrared images with 25cm and 50cm resolution is used to generate a surface model (ADS-DSM with 1m resolution covering whole switzerland (approx. 41000 km2. The spatially corresponding LiDAR dataset has a global point density of 0.5 points per m2 and is mainly used in applications as interpolated grid with 2m resolution (LiDAR-DSM. Although both surface models seem to offer a comparable accuracy from a global view, local analysis shows significant differences. Both datasets have been acquired over several years. Concerning LiDAR-DSM, different flight patterns and inconsistent quality control result in a significantly varying point density. The image acquisition of the ADS-DSM is also stretched over several years and the model generation is hampered by clouds, varying illumination and shadow effects. Nevertheless many classification and feature extraction applications requiring high resolution data depend on the local accuracy of the used surface model, therefore precise knowledge of the local data quality is essential. The commercial photogrammetric software NGATE (part of SOCET SET generates the image based surface model (ADS-DSM and delivers also a map with figures of merit (FOM of the matching process for each calculated height pixel. The FOM-map contains matching codes like high slope, excessive shift or low correlation. For the generation of the LiDAR-DSM only first- and last-pulse data was available. Therefore only the point

  13. DITTY - a computer program for calculating population dose integrated over ten thousand years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.

    1986-03-01

    The computer program DITTY (Dose Integrated Over Ten Thousand Years) was developed to determine the collective dose from long term nuclear waste disposal sites resulting from the ground-water pathways. DITTY estimates the time integral of collective dose over a ten-thousand-year period for time-variant radionuclide releases to surface waters, wells, or the atmosphere. This document includes the following information on DITTY: a description of the mathematical models, program designs, data file requirements, input preparation, output interpretations, sample problems, and program-generated diagnostic messages

  14. Climbing the ladder: capability maturity model integration level 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Bryce; Lutteroth, Christof

    2011-02-01

    This article details the attempt to form a complete workflow model for an information and communication technologies (ICT) company in order to achieve a capability maturity model integration (CMMI) maturity rating of 3. During this project, business processes across the company's core and auxiliary sectors were documented and extended using modern enterprise modelling tools and a The Open Group Architectural Framework (TOGAF) methodology. Different challenges were encountered with regard to process customisation and tool support for enterprise modelling. In particular, there were problems with the reuse of process models, the integration of different project management methodologies and the integration of the Rational Unified Process development process framework that had to be solved. We report on these challenges and the perceived effects of the project on the company. Finally, we point out research directions that could help to improve the situation in the future.

  15. System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.

  16. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  17. Ontological Analysis of Integrated Process Models: testing hypotheses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Rosemann

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Integrated process modeling is achieving prominence in helping to document and manage business administration and IT processes in organizations. The ARIS framework is a popular example for a framework of integrated process modeling not least because it underlies the 800 or more reference models embedded in the world's most popular ERP package, SAP R/3. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the Bunge-Wand-Weber (BWW representation model for evaluating modeling grammars such as those constituting ARIS. It reports some initial insights gained from pilot testing Green and Rosemann's (2000 evaluative propositions. Even when considering all five views of ARIS, modelers have problems representing business rules, the scope and boundary of systems, and decomposing models. However, even though it is completely ontologically redundant, users still find the function view useful in modeling.

  18. Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

    2017-08-01

    We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

  19. Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

  20. A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Moeini

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

  1. Integration of Environmental Issues in a Physics Course: 'Physics by Inquiry' High School Teachers' Integration Models and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimori, David Abiya

    As we approach the second quarter of the twenty-first century, one may predict that the environment will be among the dominant themes in the political and educational discourse. Over the past three decades, particular perspectives regarding the environment have begun to emerge: (i) realization by human beings that we not only live on earth and use its resources at an increasingly high rate but we also actually belong to the earth and the total ecology of all living systems, (ii) there are strong interactions among different components of the large and complex systems that make up our environment, and (iii) the rising human population and its impact on the environment is a great concern (Hughes & Mason, 2014). Studies have revealed that although the students do not have a deep understanding of environmental issues and lack environmental awareness and attitudes necessary for protecting the environment, they have great concern for the environment (Chapman & Sharma, 2001; Fien, Yencken, & Sykes, 2002). However, addressing environmental issues in the classroom and other disciplines has never been an easy job for teachers (Pennock & Bardwell, 1994; Edelson, 2007). Using multiple case studies, this study investigated how three purposefully selected physics teachers teaching a 'Physics by Inquiry' course integrated environmental topics and issues in their classroom. Particularly this study looked at what integration models and practices the three physics teachers employed in integrating environmental topics and issues in their classroom and what challenges the teachers faced while integrating environmental topics in their classrooms. Data collection methods including field notes taken from observations, teachers' interviews and a collection of artifacts and documents were used. The data were coded analyzed and organized into codes and categories guided by Fogarty (1991) models of curriculum integration and Ham and Sewing (1988) four categories of barriers to environmental

  2. A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

  3. Business model driven service architecture design for enterprise application integration

    OpenAIRE

    Gacitua-Decar, Veronica; Pahl, Claus

    2008-01-01

    Increasingly, organisations are using a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) as an approach to Enterprise Application Integration (EAI), which is required for the automation of business processes. This paper presents an architecture development process which guides the transition from business models to a service-based software architecture. The process is supported by business reference models and patterns. Firstly, the business process models are enhanced with domain model elements, applicat...

  4. ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

    2010-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  5. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  6. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  7. Integrated modeling for the restoration project management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Mingucci

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces some possibilities offered by the Information Multimedia Archives (A.I.M., methodology aimed at existing architectures and important historic monuments documentation. The A.I.M.’s generation process and its digital archive structure result from studies on digital modeling and computer vision intended to document informative surveys, produced during two distinct acquiring and compiling phases. The data is collected in the A.I.M. through increasing levels of detail and organized through the use of databases developed in order to be queried by mobile devices too.

  8. Responses to GM food content in context with food integrity issues: results from Australian population surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, Philip; Golley, Sinéad

    2016-01-25

    This study examined community responses to use of genetically modified (GM) content in food in the context of responses to familiar food additives by testing an empirically and theoretically derived model of the predictors of responses to both GM content and food integrity issues generally. A nationwide sample of 849 adults, selected at random from the Australian Electoral Roll, responded to a postal Food and Health Survey. Structural equation modelling analyses confirmed that ratings of general concern about food integrity (related to the presence of preservatives and other additives) strongly predicted negativity towards GM content. Concern about food integrity was, in turn, predicted by environmental concern and health engagement. In addition, both concern about food integrity generally and responses to GM content specifically were weakly predicted by attitudes to benefits of science and an intuitive (i.e., emotionally-based) reasoning style. Data from a follow-up survey conducted under the same conditions (N=1184) revealed that ratings of concern were significantly lower for use of genetic engineering in food than for four other common food integrity issues examined. Whereas the question of community responses to GM is often treated as a special issue, these findings support the conclusion that responses to the concept of GM content in food in Australia are substantially a specific instance of a general sensitivity towards the integrity of the food supply. They indicate that the origins of responses to GM content may be largely indistinguishable from those of general responses to preservatives and other common food additives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Map algebra and model algebra for integrated model building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, O.; Karssenberg, D.J.; Jong, K. de; Kok, J.-L. de; Jong, S.M. de

    2013-01-01

    Computer models are important tools for the assessment of environmental systems. A seamless workflow of construction and coupling of model components is essential for environmental scientists. However, currently available software packages are often tailored either to the construction of model

  10. Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

  11. THE INTEGRATION PROCESS MERCOSUR IN 2007 BY MODEL OF GLOBAL DIMENSION OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Bechlin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to analyze the advance of the regional integration process in the MERCOSUR (Southern Common Market, using a model developed for Professor Mario Ruiz Estrada, of the College of Economy and Administration of the University of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, the GDRI (Global Dimension of Regional Integration Model and that as characteristic has differentiated the use of other variable for analysis, that not specifically of economic origin, derivatives of the evolution of the commerce processes. When inferring and comparing the external performance of the economies that compose the Mercosur, evaluating itself the impacts of the advance of the process of regional and commercial integration, are evidents the inequalities that exist in the block. However, a common evolution is observed, in the direction of intensification of the integration between the economies, mainly after the process of opening lived for the continent, beyond the advance of the integration in the context of the Mercosur, from the decade of 1990. The analyzed data show that, in the generality, these economies are if integrating to the world-wide market, and in parallel, accenting the integration degree enters the members of the block.

  12. Preventing Noise-Induced Extinction in Discrete Population Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Bashkirtseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A problem of the analysis and prevention of noise-induced extinction in nonlinear population models is considered. For the solution of this problem, we suggest a general approach based on the stochastic sensitivity analysis. To prevent the noise-induced extinction, we construct feedback regulators which provide a low stochastic sensitivity and keep the system close to the safe equilibrium regime. For the demonstration of this approach, we apply our mathematical technique to the conceptual but quite representative Ricker-type models. A variant of the Ricker model with delay is studied along with the classic widely used one-dimensional system.

  13. Defense of single-factor models of population regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamarin, R.H.

    1978-01-01

    I reject a multifactorial approach to the study of the regulation of animal populations for two reasons. First, a mechanism suggested by Chitty, that has natural selection at its base, has not been adequately tested. Second, the multifactorial model suggested by Lidicker is untestable because of its vagueness. As a middle ground, I suggest a model that has natural selection as its mechanism, but is multifacturial because it allows many parameters to be the selective agents. I particularly emphasize prediction and selective dispersal. Methods to test this model are suggested

  14. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  15. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  16. A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorson, James T; Ono, Kotaro; Munch, Stephan B

    2014-02-01

    State-space estimation methods are increasingly used in ecology to estimate productivity and abundance of natural populations while accounting for variability in both population dynamics and measurement processes. However, functional forms for population dynamics and density dependence often will not match the true biological process, and this may degrade the performance of state-space methods. We therefore developed a Bayesian semiparametric state-space model, which uses a Gaussian process (GP) to approximate the population growth function. This offers two benefits for population modeling. First, it allows data to update a specified "prior" on the population growth function, while reverting to this prior when data are uninformative. Second, it allows variability in population dynamics to be decomposed into random errors around the population growth function ("process error") and errors due to the mismatch between the specified prior and estimated growth function ("model error"). We used simulation modeling to illustrate the utility of GP methods in state-space population dynamics models. Results confirmed that the GP model performs similarly to a conventional state-space model when either (1) the prior matches the true process or (2) data are relatively uninformative. However, GP methods improve estimates of the population growth function when the function is misspecified. Results also demonstrated that the estimated magnitude of "model error" can be used to distinguish cases of model misspecification. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for GP methods in other state-space models, including age and length-structured, meta-analytic, and individual-movement models.

  17. The next generation of galaxy evolution models: A symbiosis of stellar populations and chemical abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotulla, Ralf

    2012-10-01

    Over its lifespan Hubble has invested significant effort into detailed observations of galaxies both in the local and distant universe. To extract the physical information from the observed {spectro-}photometry requires detailed and accurate models. Stellar population synthesis models are frequently used to obtain stellar masses, star formation rate, galaxy ages and star formation histories. Chemical evolution models offer another valuable and complementary approach to gain insight into many of the same aspects, yet these two methods have rarely been used in combination.Our proposed next generation of galaxy evolution models will help us improve our understanding of how galaxies form and evolve. Building on GALEV evolutionary synthesis models we incorporate state-of-the-art input physics for stellar evolution of binaries and rotating stars as well as new spectral libraries well matched to the modern observational capabilities. Our improved chemical evolution model allows us to self-consistently trace abundances of individual elements, fully accounting for the increasing initial abundances of successive stellar generations. GALEV will support variable Initial Mass Functions {IMF}, enabling us to test recent observational findings of a non-universal IMF by predicting chemical properties and integrated spectra in an integrated and consistent manner.HST is the perfect instrument for testing this approach. Its wide wavelength coverage from UV to NIR enables precise SED fitting, and with its spatial resolution we can compare the inferred chemical evolution to studies of star clusters and resolved stellar populations in nearby galaxies.

  18. Integrative Analysis of Metabolic Models – from Structure to Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartmann, Anja, E-mail: hartmann@ipk-gatersleben.de [Leibniz Institute of Plant Genetics and Crop Plant Research (IPK), Gatersleben (Germany); Schreiber, Falk [Monash University, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Germany)

    2015-01-26

    The characterization of biological systems with respect to their behavior and functionality based on versatile biochemical interactions is a major challenge. To understand these complex mechanisms at systems level modeling approaches are investigated. Different modeling formalisms allow metabolic models to be analyzed depending on the question to be solved, the biochemical knowledge and the availability of experimental data. Here, we describe a method for an integrative analysis of the structure and dynamics represented by qualitative and quantitative metabolic models. Using various formalisms, the metabolic model is analyzed from different perspectives. Determined structural and dynamic properties are visualized in the context of the metabolic model. Interaction techniques allow the exploration and visual analysis thereby leading to a broader understanding of the behavior and functionality of the underlying biological system. The System Biology Metabolic Model Framework (SBM{sup 2} – Framework) implements the developed method and, as an example, is applied for the integrative analysis of the crop plant potato.

  19. Models for efficient integration of solar energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder

    the available flexibility in the system. In the present thesis methods related to operation of solar energy systems and for optimal energy use in buildings are presented. Two approaches for forecasting of solar power based on numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are presented, they are applied to forecast......Efficient operation of energy systems with substantial amount of renewable energy production is becoming increasingly important. Renewables are dependent on the weather conditions and are therefore by nature volatile and uncontrollable, opposed to traditional energy production based on combustion....... The "smart grid" is a broad term for the technology for addressing the challenge of operating the grid with a large share of renewables. The "smart" part is formed by technologies, which models the properties of the systems and efficiently adapt the load to the volatile energy production, by using...

  20. Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelaziz, Adel; Koshak, Emad

    2014-01-01

    Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment.

  1. Integrated prospecting model in Jinguanchong uranium deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yongjian

    2006-01-01

    Jinguanchong uranium deposit is large in scale, which brings difficulties to prospecting and researches. Based on conditions of mineral-formation, geophysics and geochemistry, this paper summarizes a few geophysical and geochemical prospecting methods applied to this deposit. The principles, characteristics, application condition and exploration phases of these prospecting methods are discussed and some prospecting examples are also given in the prospecting for Jinguanchong uranium deposit. Based on summarizing the practice and effects of different methods such as gamma and electromagnetic method, soil emanation prospecting, track etch technique and polonium method used in uranium prospecting, the author finally puts forward a primary uranium prospecting model for the further prospecting in Jinguanchong uranium deposit through combining the author's experience with practice. (authors)

  2. Integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnetic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Jiafeng; Yan Zhaowen; Wang Shikun; Wu Ke; Zhao Weizhong

    2009-01-01

    The Heisenberg supermagnet model is an integrable supersymmetric system and has a close relationship with the strong electron correlated Hubbard model. In this paper, we investigate the integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnet models with two different constraints: (i) S 2 =3S-2I for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(U(2)xU(1)) and (ii) S 2 =S for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(L(1/1)xU(1)). In terms of the gauge transformation, their corresponding gauge equivalent counterparts are derived.

  3. An Integrated Simulation Tool for Modeling the Human Circulatory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asami, Ken'ichi; Kitamura, Tadashi

    This paper presents an integrated simulation of the circulatory system in physiological movement. The large circulatory system model includes principal organs and functional units in modules in which comprehensive physiological changes such as nerve reflexes, temperature regulation, acid/base balance, O2/CO2 balance, and exercise are simulated. A beat-by-beat heart model, in which the corresponding electrical circuit problems are solved by a numerical analytic method, enables calculation of pulsatile blood flow to the major organs. The integration of different perspectives on physiological changes makes this simulation model applicable for the microscopic evaluation of blood flow under various conditions in the human body.

  4. Chapter 4: Establishment of the integrated modelling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    This chapter summarizes how the Integrated Modelling System has been established. The Danubian Lowland Information System (DLIS) has been developed, providing a central database and Geographical Information System (GIS) with facilities for data storage, maintenance, processing and presentation. In addition, data can be imported and exported in the file formats readable for the applied modelling system

  5. Modeling of Integrated Security Systems in Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskandar Maratovich Azhmuhamedov

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available It is proposed the model, which takes into account the main features of the integrated system of information security: weak structure, bad formal description, fuzzy description of the status of system components and the relationships between them. Adequacy of the model is tested on the example of Astrakhan State Technical University.

  6. Integrating Tax Preparation with FAFSA Completion: Three Case Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daun-Barnett, Nathan; Mabry, Beth

    2012-01-01

    This research compares three different models implemented in four cities. The models integrated free tax-preparation services to assist low-income families with their completion of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). There has been an increased focus on simplifying the FAFSA process. However, simplification is not the only…

  7. Designing the Distributed Model Integration Framework – DMIF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Morales, Javier

    2017-01-01

    We describe and discuss the design and prototype of the Distributed Model Integration Framework (DMIF) that links models deployed on different hardware and software platforms. We used distributed computing and service-oriented development approaches to address the different aspects of

  8. Principles of integrated modeling of coal seam mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magda, R

    1983-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of underground coal mining is discussed. Construction of a mathematical model of an underground mine is analyzed. The model is based on integrating the elementary units (modules). A so-called elementary mining field is defined with the example of a longwall face. A model of an elementary coal seam zone is constructed by integrating the elementary mining fields (in time and space) and supplementing them with a suitable model of mine roadway structure. By integrating the elementary coal seam zones a model of mining level is constructed. Such a mathematical model is used for optimizing the selected mining parameters e.g. structure of mine roadways, size of a coal mine, and organizational scheme of underground mining in a mine or in a mine section using the standardized optimization criterion e.g. investment. Use of the integration model of underground mining for optimizing coal mine construction is evaluated. The following elements of investment and operating cost are considered: shaft excavation, shaft equipment, investment in mining sections, ventilation, mine draining etc. 1 reference.

  9. Integrating Collaborative and Decentralized Models to Support Ubiquitous Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, Jorge Luis Victória; Barbosa, Débora Nice Ferrari; Rigo, Sandro José; de Oliveira, Jezer Machado; Rabello, Solon Andrade, Jr.

    2014-01-01

    The application of ubiquitous technologies in the improvement of education strategies is called Ubiquitous Learning. This article proposes the integration between two models dedicated to support ubiquitous learning environments, called Global and CoolEdu. CoolEdu is a generic collaboration model for decentralized environments. Global is an…

  10. Effects of Video Modeling on Treatment Integrity of Behavioral Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiGennaro-Reed, Florence D.; Codding, Robin; Catania, Cynthia N.; Maguire, Helena

    2010-01-01

    We examined the effects of individualized video modeling on the accurate implementation of behavioral interventions using a multiple baseline design across 3 teachers. During video modeling, treatment integrity improved above baseline levels; however, teacher performance remained variable. The addition of verbal performance feedback increased…

  11. Integrating environmental component models. Development of a software framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, O.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated models consist of interacting component models that represent various natural and social systems. They are important tools to improve our understanding of environmental systems, to evaluate cause–effect relationships of human–natural interactions, and to forecast the behaviour of

  12. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  13. Conformal field theories, Coulomb gas picture and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuber, J.B.

    1988-01-01

    The aim of the study is to present the links between some results of conformal field theory, the conventional Coulomb gas picture in statistical mechanics and the approach of integrable models. It is shown that families of conformal theories, related by the coset construction to the SU(2) Kac-Moody algebra, may be regarded as obtained from some free field, and modified by the coupling of its winding numbers to floating charges. This representation reflects the procedure of restriction of the corresponding integrable lattice models. The work may be generalized to models based on the coset construction with higher rank algebras. The corresponding integrable models are identified. In the conformal field description, generalized parafermions appear, and are coupled to free fields living on a higher-dimensional torus. The analysis is not as exhaustive as in the SU(2) case: all the various restrictions have not been identified, nor the modular invariants completely classified

  14. Modeling integrated cellular machinery using hybrid Petri-Boolean networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Berestovsky

    Full Text Available The behavior and phenotypic changes of cells are governed by a cellular circuitry that represents a set of biochemical reactions. Based on biological functions, this circuitry is divided into three types of networks, each encoding for a major biological process: signal transduction, transcription regulation, and metabolism. This division has generally enabled taming computational complexity dealing with the entire system, allowed for using modeling techniques that are specific to each of the components, and achieved separation of the different time scales at which reactions in each of the three networks occur. Nonetheless, with this division comes loss of information and power needed to elucidate certain cellular phenomena. Within the cell, these three types of networks work in tandem, and each produces signals and/or substances that are used by the others to process information and operate normally. Therefore, computational techniques for modeling integrated cellular machinery are needed. In this work, we propose an integrated hybrid model (IHM that combines Petri nets and Boolean networks to model integrated cellular networks. Coupled with a stochastic simulation mechanism, the model simulates the dynamics of the integrated network, and can be perturbed to generate testable hypotheses. Our model is qualitative and is mostly built upon knowledge from the literature and requires fine-tuning of very few parameters. We validated our model on two systems: the transcriptional regulation of glucose metabolism in human cells, and cellular osmoregulation in S. cerevisiae. The model produced results that are in very good agreement with experimental data, and produces valid hypotheses. The abstract nature of our model and the ease of its construction makes it a very good candidate for modeling integrated networks from qualitative data. The results it produces can guide the practitioner to zoom into components and interconnections and investigate them

  15. Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

    2010-01-01

    Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased

  16. [Integrated treatment of cooccurring mental and substance use disorders in urban populations : the situation in Montréal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubreucq, Simon; Chanut, Florence; Jutras-Aswad, Didier

    2012-01-01

    The prevalence of patients diagnosed with both a psychiatric and an addiction disorder is considerable. Like many other large urban centers, Montreal harbors many of these socially marginalized individuals. In spite of a wide range of resources for the treatment of each condition taken singly, there has been until recently an alarming dearth of programs aimed at providing integrated treatment models. In recent years, the CHUM has endeavored to implement such a program in order to address the multiple needs of a population often rendered vulnerable in many respects. In this article, the authors address the magnitude of this "dual diagnosis" problem, existing intervention models and the obstacles faced by this population in terms of access to health care ; they describe the steps leading to the establishment of an Addiction Psychiatric Unit at the CHUM and the challenges arising from the creation of a multidisciplinary integrated treatment model in an urban setting.

  17. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  18. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  19. Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

  20. Integrated design approach of the pebble bed modular using models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venter, P.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) is the first pebble bed reactor that will be utilised in a high temperature direct Brayton cycle configuration. This implies that there are a number of unique features in the PBMR that extend from the German experience base. One of the challenges in the design of the PBMR is managing the integrated design process between the designers, the physicists and the analysts. This integrated design process is managed through model-based development work. Three-dimensional CAD models are constructed of the components and parts in the reactor. From the CAD models, CFD models, neutronic models, shielding models, FEM models and other thermodynamic models are derived. These models range from very simple models to extremely detailed and complex models. The models are used in legacy software as well as commercial off-the-shelf software. The different models are also used in code-to-code comparisons to verify the results. This paper will briefly discuss the different models and the interaction between the models, showing the iterative design process that is used in the development of the reactor at PBMR. (author)

  1. Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelaziz A

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Adel Abdelaziz,1,2 Emad Koshak3 1Medical Education Development Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia; 2Medical Education Department, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Egypt; 3Dean and Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia Abstract: Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment. Keywords: curriculum development, teaching, learning, assessment, apprenticeship, community-based settings, health service-based settings

  2. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies I: Model Development.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper an integrated modelling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modelling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a

  3. A quantum relativistic integrable model as the continuous limit of the six-vertex model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Y.K.

    1992-01-01

    The six-vertex model in two-dimensional statistical mechanics is used to construct the L-matrix of a one-dimensional quantum relativistic integrable model through a continuous limit. This is the first step to extend the method used earlier by the author to construct quantum completely integrable systems from other well-known two-dimensional vertex models. (orig.)

  4. Integrated on-line accelerator modeling at CEBAF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowling, B.A.; Shoaee, H.; Van Zeijts, J.; Witherspoon, S.; Watson, W.

    1995-01-01

    An on-line accelerator modeling facility is currently under development at CEBAF. The model server, which is integrated with the EPICS control system, provides coupled and 2nd-order matrices for the entire accelerator, and forms the foundation for automated model- based control and diagnostic applications. Four types of machine models are provided, including design, golden or certified, live, and scratch or simulated model. Provisions are also made for the use of multiple lattice modeling programs such as DIMAD, PARMELA, and TLIE. Design and implementation details are discussed. 2 refs., 4 figs

  5. Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high

  6. Population Synthesis Models for Normal Galaxies with Dusty Disks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung-Won Suh

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the SEDs of galaxies considering the dust extinction processes in the galactic disks, we present the population synthesis models for normal galaxies with dusty disks. We use PEGASE (Fioc & Rocca-Volmerange 1997 to model them with standard input parameters for stars and new dust parameters. We find that the model results are strongly dependent on the dust parameters as well as other parameters (e.g. star formation history. We compare the model results with the observations and discuss about the possible explanations. We find that the dust opacity functions derived from studies of asymptotic giant branch stars are useful for modeling a galaxy with a dusty disk.

  7. Modelling of multidimensional quantum systems by the numerical functional integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, Yu.Yu.; Zhidkov, E.P.

    1990-01-01

    The employment of the numerical functional integration for the description of multidimensional systems in quantum and statistical physics is considered. For the multiple functional integrals with respect to Gaussian measures in the full separable metric spaces the new approximation formulas exact on a class of polynomial functionals of a given summary degree are constructed. The use of the formulas is demonstrated on example of computation of the Green function and the ground state energy in multidimensional Calogero model. 15 refs.; 2 tabs

  8. MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then

  9. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  10. An integration scheme for stiff solid-gas reactor models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjarne A. Foss

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available Many dynamic models encounter numerical integration problems because of a large span in the dynamic modes. In this paper we develop a numerical integration scheme for systems that include a gas phase, and solid and liquid phases, such as a gas-solid reactor. The method is based on neglecting fast dynamic modes and exploiting the structure of the algebraic equations. The integration method is suitable for a large class of industrially relevant systems. The methodology has proven remarkably efficient. It has in practice performed excellent and been a key factor for the success of the industrial simulator for electrochemical furnaces for ferro-alloy production.

  11. An Integrated Biochemistry Laboratory, Including Molecular Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Adele J. Wolfson Mona L.; Branham, Thomas R.

    1996-11-01

    ) experience with methods of protein purification; (iii) incorporation of appropriate controls into experiments; (iv) use of basic statistics in data analysis; (v) writing papers and grant proposals in accepted scientific style; (vi) peer review; (vii) oral presentation of results and proposals; and (viii) introduction to molecular modeling. Figure 1 illustrates the modular nature of the lab curriculum. Elements from each of the exercises can be separated and treated as stand-alone exercises, or combined into short or long projects. We have been able to offer the opportunity to use sophisticated molecular modeling in the final module through funding from an NSF-ILI grant. However, many of the benefits of the research proposal can be achieved with other computer programs, or even by literature survey alone. Figure 1.Design of project-based biochemistry laboratory. Modules (projects, or portions of projects) are indicated as boxes. Each of these can be treated independently, or used as part of a larger project. Solid lines indicate some suggested paths from one module to the next. The skills and knowledge required for protein purification and design are developed in three units: (i) an introduction to critical assays needed to monitor degree of purification, including an evaluation of assay parameters; (ii) partial purification by ion-exchange techniques; and (iii) preparation of a grant proposal on protein design by mutagenesis. Brief descriptions of each of these units follow, with experimental details of each project at the end of this paper. Assays for Lysozyme Activity and Protein Concentration (4 weeks) The assays mastered during the first unit are a necessary tool for determining the purity of the enzyme during the second unit on purification by ion exchange. These assays allow an introduction to the concept of specific activity (units of enzyme activity per milligram of total protein) as a measure of purity. In this first sequence, students learn a turbidimetric assay

  12. Working toward integrated models of alpine plant distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Bradley Z; Randin, Christophe F; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been frequently employed to forecast the response of alpine plants to global changes. Efforts to model alpine plant distribution have thus far been primarily based on a correlative approach, in which ecological processes are implicitly addressed through a statistical relationship between observed species occurrences and environmental predictors. Recent evidence, however, highlights the shortcomings of correlative SDMs, especially in alpine landscapes where plant species tend to be decoupled from atmospheric conditions in micro-topographic habitats and are particularly exposed to geomorphic disturbances. While alpine plants respond to the same limiting factors as plants found at lower elevations, alpine environments impose a particular set of scale-dependent and hierarchical drivers that shape the realized niche of species and that require explicit consideration in a modelling context. Several recent studies in the European Alps have successfully integrated both correlative and process-based elements into distribution models of alpine plants, but for the time being a single integrative modelling framework that includes all key drivers remains elusive. As a first step in working toward a comprehensive integrated model applicable to alpine plant communities, we propose a conceptual framework that structures the primary mechanisms affecting alpine plant distributions. We group processes into four categories, including multi-scalar abiotic drivers, gradient dependent species interactions, dispersal and spatial-temporal plant responses to disturbance. Finally, we propose a methodological framework aimed at developing an integrated model to better predict alpine plant distribution.

  13. Integrated model of insulin and glucose kinetics describing both hepatic glucose and pancreatic insulin regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlandsen, Mogens; Martinussen, Christoffer; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg

    2018-01-01

    AbstractBackground and objectives Modeling of glucose kinetics has to a large extent been based on models with plasma insulin as a known forcing function. Furthermore, population-based statistical methods for parameter estimation in these models have mainly addressed random inter-individual varia......AbstractBackground and objectives Modeling of glucose kinetics has to a large extent been based on models with plasma insulin as a known forcing function. Furthermore, population-based statistical methods for parameter estimation in these models have mainly addressed random inter......-individual variations and not intra-individual variations in the parameters. Here we present an integrated whole-body model of glucose and insulin kinetics which extends the well-known two-compartment glucose minimal model. The population-based estimation technique allow for quantification of both random inter......- and intra-individual variation in selected parameters using simultaneous data series on glucose and insulin. Methods We extend the two-compartment glucose model into a whole-body model for both glucose and insulin using a simple model for the pancreas compartment which includes feedback of glucose on both...

  14. Integration of Simulink Models with Component-based Software Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marian, Nicolae

    2008-01-01

    Model based development aims to facilitate the development of embedded control systems by emphasizing the separation of the design level from the implementation level. Model based design involves the use of multiple models that represent different views of a system, having different semantics...... of abstract system descriptions. Usually, in mechatronics systems, design proceeds by iterating model construction, model analysis, and model transformation. Constructing a MATLAB/Simulink model, a plant and controller behavior is simulated using graphical blocks to represent mathematical and logical...... constraints. COMDES (Component-based Design of Software for Distributed Embedded Systems) is such a component-based system framework developed by the software engineering group of Mads Clausen Institute for Product Innovation (MCI), University of Southern Denmark. Once specified, the software model has...

  15. New series of 3 D lattice integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangazeev, V.V.; Sergeev, S.M.; Stroganov, Yu.G.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper we present a new series of 3-dimensional integrable lattice models with N colors. The weight functions of the models satisfy modified tetrahedron equations with N states and give a commuting family of two-layer transfer-matrices. The dependence on the spectral parameters corresponds to the static limit of the modified tetrahedron equations and weights are parameterized in terms of elliptic functions. The models contain two free parameters: elliptic modulus and additional parameter η. 12 refs

  16. Complete integrability of the supersymmetric (cos phi)2 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulish, P.P.; Tsyplyaev, S.A.

    1987-01-01

    Complete integrability of the supersymmetric two-dimensional sine-Gordon field-theoretical model is proved in the framework of the Hamiltonian interpretation of the inverse problem method. The classical r-matrix of this model is computed and shown to be equivalent to the r-matrix of the Grassmann Thirring model. Creation-annihilation variables are constructed and the elementary excitation spectrum is determined

  17. Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Heligman-Pollard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Mohd, Razak; Ngataman, Nuraini; Abrisam, Wan Nur Azifah Wan Mohd

    2017-08-01

    Actuaries, demographers and other professionals have always been aware of the critical importance of mortality forecasting due to declining trend of mortality and continuous increases in life expectancy. Heligman-Pollard model was introduced in 1980 and has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. This paper aims to estimate an eight-parameter model based on Heligman and Pollard's law of mortality. Since the model involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 7.0 (MATLAB 7.0) software will be used in order to estimate the parameters. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) will be applied to forecast all the parameters according to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The empirical data sets of Malaysian population for period of 1981 to 2015 for both genders will be considered, which the period of 1981 to 2010 will be used as "training set" and the period of 2011 to 2015 as "testing set". In order to investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecast results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The result shows that Heligman-Pollard model fit well for male population at all ages while the model seems to underestimate the mortality rates for female population at the older ages.

  18. Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-10-11

    The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

  19. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  20. Mechanical Model of Traditional Thai Massage for Integrated Healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salinee Rattanaphan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a mechanical model was developed, aiming to provide standardized and programmable traditional Thai massage (TTM therapy to patients. The TTM was modeled and integrated into a mechanical hand (MH system, and a prototype massage chair was built and tested for user satisfaction. Three fundamental principles of Thai massage were integrated: pull, press, and pin. Based on these principles, the mechanics of Thai massage was studied and a mathematical model was developed to describe the dynamics and conditions for the design and prototyping of an MH. On average, it was found that users were satisfied with the treatment and felt that the treatment was similar to that performed by human hands. According to the interview results, users indicated that they were likely to utilize the MH as an alternative to traditional massage. Therefore, integrated TTM with an MH may help healthcare providers deliver standardized, programmable massage therapy to patients as opposed to variable, inconsistent human massage.

  1. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  2. Models of Integration, Models of Development in the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Borrego

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to understand the processes related to integration and development in the East Asian and Latin American societies this paper attempts to place those processes in the larger context of cycles of world accumulation. Many of the societies in East Asia, Latin America, and the South, in general, were integrated into the world economy during previous cycles of hegemony and accumulation. However, in the American cycle, and particularly at the height of this cycle, East Asia was developed while most of Latin America continued to experience truncated development. How do we understand these different trajectories? We argue that the best way to understand the different processes of integration and development in these two regions during the current historical period of global capitalist accumulation is to see them all as housed in a transition period between the waning American cycle of hegemony in the world economy and a new, as yet undefined cycle. We will look at the role that the East Asian region and its societies are playing in the transition to the next cycle, as well as analyze why these societies should not be viewed as successful products of the "modernization process," as proponents of that theory argue. The "success" of these societies is rooted in their historical entry point and the geopolitical importance to the United States of the region in which they were housed, and is not necessarily repeatable by other Third World societies such as those in Latin America.

  3. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Submarine groundwater discharge as an integral environmental "currency" limiting population and development within the ecosphere of small islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, Ruth

    Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) from oceanic islands has been estimated to contribute over a third of the global SGD due to orographic precipitation, short aquifer pathways and poorly developed surface drainage. This seepage of groundwater across the sea floor connects land and coastal ocean resources, and is hereby proposed as a parameter to evaluate the interconnections between coastal environmental quality and coastal populations and development. Relatively few islands have been studied, but SGD is typically found to be an important, and often the only, source of nutrients to coastal waters. Freshwater and its pollutant load are delivered to the coastal zone via SGD with consequent impacts on tourism and fisheries thus linking the land-based and marine economic sectors. The characteristics of SGD were investigated on Barbados, Guam and Bimini, islands all of, at least partly, carbonate origin, This study evaluates the similarities and differences between these islands and assesses the applicability of using SGD as a parameter within a population--development--environment model. Model scenarios can be used to explore the integrated coastal impacts of wastewater treatment practices and changes in seasonal rainfall due to climate change. This study also presents novel analytical methods for SGD field data.

  5. INTEGRATION OF FACILITY MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

    2011-07-18

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  6. Integration of facility modeling capabilities for nuclear nonproliferation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Humberto; Burr, Tom; Coles, Garill A.; Edmunds, Thomas A.; Garrett, Alfred; Gorensek, Maximilian; Hamm, Luther; Krebs, John; Kress, Reid L.; Lamberti, Vincent; Schoenwald, David; Tzanos, Constantine P.; Ward, Richard C.

    2012-01-01

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  7. Integration Of Facility Modeling Capabilities For Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

    2011-01-01

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  8. An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of

  9. Reference man models based on normal data from human populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Gi-ichiro; Kawamura, Hisao

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative description of the physical, and metabolic parameters of the human body is the very basic for internal dosimetry. Compilation of anatomical and other types of data Asian populations for internal (and external) dosimetry is of grate significance because of the potential spread of nuclear energy use in the Asian region and the major contribution of the region to the world population (about 58%). It has been observed that some differences exist for habitat, race, body sizes and pattern of food consumption. In the early stage of revision of ICRP Reference man by the Task Group, Characteristics of the human body of non-European populations received considerable attention as well as those of the European populations of different sexes and ages. In this context, an IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program on Compilation of Anatomical, Physiological and Metabolic Characteristics for a Reference Asian Man endorsed. In later stages of reference Man revision, anatomical data for Asians was discusses together with those of European populations, presumably due to ICRP's decision of unanimous use of the Reference Man for radiation protection. Reference man models for adults and 15, 10, 5, 1, 0 year-old males and females of Asian populations were developed for use in internal and external dosimetry. Based on the concept of ICRP Reference Man (Publication 23), the reference values were derived from the normal organ mass data for Japanese and statistical data on the physique and nutrition of Japanese and Chinese. Also incorporated were variations in physical measurements, as observed in the above mentioned IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program. The work was partly carried out within the activities of the ICRP Task Group on Reference Man. The weight of the skeleton was adjusted following the revised values in Publication 70. This paper will report basic shared and non-shared characteristics of Reference Man' for Asians and ICRP Reference Man. (author)

  10. The prediction of the cavitation phenomena including population balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannari, Rachid; Hliwa, Ghizlane Zineb; Bannari, Abdelfettah; Belghiti, Mly Taib

    2017-07-01

    Cavitation is the principal reason behind the behavior's modification of the hydraulic turbines. However, the experimental observations can not be appropriate to all cases due to the limitations in the measurement techniques. The mathematical models which have been implemented, use the mixture multiphase frame. As well as, most of the published work is limited by considering a constant bubble size distribution. However, this assumption is not realist. The aim of this article is the implementation and the use of a non-homogeneous multiphase model which solve two phases transport equation. The evolution of bubble size is considered by the population balance equation. This study is based on the eulerian-eulerian model, associated to the cavitation model. All the inter-phase forces such as drag, lift and virtual mass are used.

  11. Eulerian Multiphase Population Balance Model of Atomizing, Swirling Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayana P. Rayapati

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An Eulerian/Eulerian multiphase flow model coupled with a population balance model is used as the basis for numerical simulation of atomization in swirling flows. The objective of this exercise is to develop a methodology capable of predicting the local point-wise drop size distribution in a spray, such as would be measured by the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDA. Model predictions are compared to experimental measurements of particle size distributions in an air-blast atomizer spray to demonstrate good qualitative and quantitative agreement. It is observed that the dependence of velocity on drop size inherent in a multiphase description of the drop cloud appears necessary to capture some features of the experimental data. Using this model, we demonstrate the relative contributions of secondary atomization and transport to the variation observed in the downstream spray drop size distribution.

  12. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  13. Integrated multi-scale modelling and simulation of nuclear fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valot, C.; Bertolus, M.; Masson, R.; Malerba, L.; Rachid, J.; Besmann, T.; Phillpot, S.; Stan, M.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter aims at discussing the objectives, implementation and integration of multi-scale modelling approaches applied to nuclear fuel materials. We will first show why the multi-scale modelling approach is required, due to the nature of the materials and by the phenomena involved under irradiation. We will then present the multiple facets of multi-scale modelling approach, while giving some recommendations with regard to its application. We will also show that multi-scale modelling must be coupled with appropriate multi-scale experiments and characterisation. Finally, we will demonstrate how multi-scale modelling can contribute to solving technology issues. (authors)

  14. Top-Down Enterprise Application Integration with Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem-Jan van den Heuvel

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available For Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP systems such as SAP R/3 or IBM SanFrancisco, the tailoring of reference models for customizing the ERP systems to specific organizational contexts is an established approach. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses such reference models as a starting point for a top-down integration of enterprise applications. The re-engineered models of legacy systems are individually linked via cross-mapping specifications to the forward-engineered reference model's specification. The actual linking of reference and legacy models is done with a methodology for connecting (new business objects with (old legacy systems.

  15. Supervisory Model Predictive Control of the Heat Integrated Distillation Column

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Kristian; Bisgaard, Thomas; Huusom, Jakob Kjøbsted

    2017-01-01

    This paper benchmarks a centralized control system based on model predictive control for the operation of the heat integrated distillation column (HIDiC) against a fully decentralized control system using the most complete column model currently available in the literature. The centralized control...... system outperforms the decentralized system, because it handles the interactions in the HIDiC process better. The integral absolute error (IAE) is reduced by a factor of 2 and a factor of 4 for control of the top and bottoms compositions, respectively....

  16. Fused integrable lattice models with quantum impurities and open boundaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doikou, Anastasia

    2003-01-01

    The alternating integrable spin chain and the RSOS(q 1 ,q 2 ;p) model in the presence of a quantum impurity are investigated. The boundary free energy due to the impurity is derived, the ratios of the corresponding g functions at low and high temperature are specified and their relevance to boundary flows in unitary minimal and generalized coset models is discussed. Finally, the alternating spin chain with diagonal and non-diagonal integrable boundaries is studied, and the corresponding boundary free energy and g functions are derived

  17. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  18. Process modeling for the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment System (INTS) study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, B.W.

    1997-04-01

    This report describes the process modeling done in support of the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment System (INTS) study. This study was performed to supplement the Integrated Thermal Treatment System (ITTS) study and comprises five conceptual treatment systems that treat DOE contract-handled mixed low-level wastes (MLLW) at temperatures of less than 350{degrees}F. ASPEN PLUS, a chemical process simulator, was used to model the systems. Nonthermal treatment systems were developed as part of the INTS study and include sufficient processing steps to treat the entire inventory of MLLW. The final result of the modeling is a process flowsheet with a detailed mass and energy balance. In contrast to the ITTS study, which modeled only the main treatment system, the INTS study modeled each of the various processing steps with ASPEN PLUS, release 9.1-1. Trace constituents, such as radionuclides and minor pollutant species, were not included in the calculations.

  19. Integration of QSAR models for bioconcentration suitable for REACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gissi, Andrea [Laboratory of Chemistry and Environmental Toxicology, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri”, via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milan (Italy); Dipartimento di Farmacia — Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, via Orabona 4, I-70125 Bari (Italy); Nicolotti, Orazio; Carotti, Angelo; Gadaleta, Domenico [Dipartimento di Farmacia — Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, via Orabona 4, I-70125 Bari (Italy); Lombardo, Anna [Laboratory of Chemistry and Environmental Toxicology, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri”, via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milan (Italy); Benfenati, Emilio, E-mail: benfenati@marionegri.it [Laboratory of Chemistry and Environmental Toxicology, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri”, via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milan (Italy)

    2013-07-01

    QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship) models can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce animal test required by REACH. In particular, some endpoints such as bioconcentration factor (BCF) are easier to predict and many useful models have been already developed. In this paper we describe how to integrate two popular BCF models to obtain more reliable predictions. In particular, the herein presented integrated model relies on the predictions of two among the most used BCF models (CAESAR and Meylan), together with the Applicability Domain Index (ADI) provided by the software VEGA. Using a set of simple rules, the integrated model selects the most reliable and conservative predictions and discards possible outliers. In this way, for the prediction of the 851 compounds included in the ANTARES BCF dataset, the integrated model discloses a R{sup 2} (coefficient of determination) of 0.80, a RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 0.61 log units and a sensitivity of 76%, with a considerable improvement in respect to the CAESAR (R{sup 2} = 0.63; RMSE = 0.84 log units; sensitivity 55%) and Meylan (R{sup 2} = 0.66; RMSE = 0.77 log units; sensitivity 65%) without discarding too many predictions (118 out of 851). Importantly, considering solely the compounds within the new integrated ADI, the R{sup 2} increased to 0.92, and the sensitivity to 85%, with a RMSE of 0.44 log units. Finally, the use of properly set safety thresholds applied for monitoring the so called “suspicious” compounds, which are those chemicals predicted in proximity of the border normally accepted to discern non-bioaccumulative from bioaccumulative substances, permitted to obtain an integrated model with sensitivity equal to 100%. - Highlights: • Applying two independent QSAR models for bioconcentration factor increases the prediction. • The concordance of the models is an important component of the integration. • The measurement of the applicability domain improves the

  20. Modification of the Integrated Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiho Nam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2012, the Korea Institute of Oriental Medicine proposed an objective and comprehensive physical diagnostic model to address quantification problems in the existing Sasang constitutional diagnostic method. However, certain issues have been raised regarding a revision of the proposed diagnostic model. In this paper, we propose various methodological approaches to address the problems of the previous diagnostic model. Firstly, more useful variables are selected in each component. Secondly, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is used to reduce multicollinearity without the modification of explanatory variables. Thirdly, proportions of SC types and age are considered to construct individual diagnostic models and classify the training set and the test set for reflecting the characteristics of the entire dataset. Finally, an integrated model is constructed with explanatory variables of individual diagnosis models. The proposed integrated diagnostic model significantly improves the sensitivities for both the male SY type (36.4% → 62.0% and the female SE type (43.7% → 64.5%, which were areas of limitation of the previous integrated diagnostic model. The ideas of these new algorithms are expected to contribute not only to the scientific development of Sasang constitutional medicine in Korea but also to that of other diagnostic methods for traditional medicine.