WorldWideScience

Sample records for integrating population modeling

  1. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  2. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieberg, John R; Shertzer, Kyle W; Conn, Paul B; Noyce, Karen V; Garshelis, David L

    2010-08-12

    Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and

  3. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  4. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-01-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R Fieberg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008, data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success, and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002. We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable

  6. Integral control for population management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Logemann, Hartmut; Rebarber, Richard; Bill, Adam; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Hodgson, Dave; Townley, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    We present a novel management methodology for restocking a declining population. The strategy uses integral control, a concept ubiquitous in control theory which has not been applied to population dynamics. Integral control is based on dynamic feedback-using measurements of the population to inform management strategies and is robust to model uncertainty, an important consideration for ecological models. We demonstrate from first principles why such an approach to population management is suitable via theory and examples.

  7. Population density models of integrate-and-fire neurons with jumps: well-posedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Grégory; Henry, Jacques

    2013-09-01

    In this paper we study the well-posedness of different models of population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with a population density approach. The synaptic interaction between neurons is modeled by a potential jump at the reception of a spike. We study populations that are self excitatory or self inhibitory. We distinguish the cases where this interaction is instantaneous from the one where there is a repartition of conduction delays. In the case of a bounded density of delays both excitatory and inhibitory population models are shown to be well-posed. But without conduction delay the solution of the model of self excitatory neurons may blow up. We analyze the different behaviours of the model with jumps compared to its diffusion approximation.

  8. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  10. A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Adam; Pearl, Christopher A; Adams, Michael J; Peterson, James T

    2017-09-01

    Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010-2011 to 0.86 in 2012-2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but

  11. Integration of Density Dependence and Concentration Response Models Provides an Ecologically Relevant Assessment of Populations Exposed to Toxicants

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment of toxic exposure on wildlife populations involves the integration of organism level effects measured in toxicity tests (e.g., chronic life cycle) and population models. These modeling exercises typically ignore density dependence, primarily because information on ...

  12. Integrative demographic modeling reveals population level impacts of PCB toxicity to juvenile snapping turtles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salice, Christopher J.; Rowe, Christopher L.; Eisenreich, Karen M.

    2014-01-01

    A significant challenge in ecotoxicology and risk assessment lies in placing observed contaminant effects in a meaningful ecological context. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been shown to affect juvenile snapping turtle survival and growth but the ecological significance of these effects is difficult to discern without a formal, population-level assessment. We used a demographic matrix model to explore the potential population-level effects of PCBs on turtles. Our model showed that effects of PCBs on juvenile survival, growth and size at hatching could translate to negative effects at the population level despite the fact that these life cycle components do not typically contribute strongly to population level processes. This research points to the utility of using integrative demographic modeling approaches to better understand contaminant effects in wildlife. The results indicate that population-level effects are only evident after several years, suggesting that for long-lived species, detecting adverse contaminant effects could prove challenging. -- Highlights: • Previous studies have shown the PCBs can impact juvenile snapping turtles. • We used a demographic model of turtles to evaluate population-level PCB effects. • PCB effects on turtles may translate to negative population responses. • Long-term monitoring is needed to detect contaminant effects on natural turtle populations. • Demographic models can improve our understanding contaminant ecotoxicity. -- A demographic model was used to show that PCB induced effects on young snapping turtles can result in adverse effects at the population level

  13. A hierarchical integrated population model for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, California and Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Halstead, Brian J.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne; Howe, Kristy B.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Reese, Kerry P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    rate (i.e., finite rate of change, λ) and specific demographic parameters that explain sources of variation in λ within different subpopulations would be valuable for making conservation and management decisions for this DPS. During 2003–12, agencies and universities collaborated to conduct extensive monitoring of sage-grouse populations within the Bi-State DPS. Data regarding lek attendance, movement, and survival of sage-grouse across multiple life stages were documented. Specifically, sage-grouse from nearly all subpopulations were marked and tracked across multiple seasons using radio-telemetry techniques. A hierarchical integrated population modeling (IPM) approach was used to derive demographic parameters for the Bi-State DPS using the large amount of data collected over a 10-year period. This modeling approach allows integration of multiple data sources to inform population growth rates and population vital rates for the Bi-State DPS overall, as well as for individual subpopulations. These models are more informative than other models because they integrate inputs of demographic data (for example, survival and fecundity rates) and survey data (for example, lek observations). The findings here will help characterize population growth rates within the Bi-State DPS.

  14. Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into a matrix projection model for Drosophila suzukii population estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nik G Wiman

    Full Text Available Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit. Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.

  15. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

    2017-10-15

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  17. Master Middle Ware: A Tool to Integrate Water Resources and Fish Population Dynamics Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Thompson, L. C.; Kilduff, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Linking models that investigate separate components of ecosystem processes has the potential to unify messages regarding management decisions by evaluating potential trade-offs in a cohesive framework. This project aimed to improve the ability of riparian resource managers to forecast future water availability conditions and resultant fish habitat suitability, in order to better inform their management decisions. To accomplish this goal, we developed a middleware tool that is capable of linking and overseeing the operations of two existing models, a water resource planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and a habitat-based fish population dynamics model (WEAPhish). First, we designed the Master Middle Ware (MMW) software in Visual Basic for Application® in one Excel® file that provided a familiar framework for both data input and output Second, MMW was used to link and jointly operate WEAP and WEAPhish, using Visual Basic Application (VBA) macros to implement system level calls to run the models. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, hydrological, biological, and middleware model components were developed for the Butte Creek basin. This tributary of the Sacramento River, California is managed for both hydropower and the persistence of a threatened population of spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha). While we have demonstrated the use of MMW for a particular watershed and fish population, MMW can be customized for use with different rivers and fish populations, assuming basic data requirements are met. This model integration improves on ad hoc linkages for managing data transfer between software programs by providing a consistent, user-friendly, and familiar interface across different model implementations. Furthermore, the data-viewing capabilities of MMW facilitate the rapid interpretation of model results by hydrologists, fisheries biologists, and resource managers, in order to accelerate learning and management decision

  18. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  19. Population persistence of stream fish in response to environmental change: integrating data and models across space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, B. H.; Schueller, P.; Bassar, R.; Coombs, J.; Rosner, A.; Sakrejda, K.; Kanno, Y.; Whiteley, A.; Nislow, K. H.

    2013-12-01

    For stream fishes, environmental variation is a key driver of individual body growth/movement/survival and, by extension, population dynamics. Identifying how stream fish respond to environmental variation can help clarify mechanisms responsible for population dynamics and can help provide tools to forecast relative resilience of populations across space. Forecasting dynamics across space is challenging, however, because it can be difficult to conduct enough studies with enough intensity to fully characterize broad-scale population response to environmental change. We have adopted a multi-scale approach, using detailed individual-based studies and analyses (integral projection matrix) to determine sensitivities of population growth to environmental variation combined with broad spatial data and analyses (occupancy and abundance models) to estimate patterns of population response across space. Population growth of brook trout was most sensitive to stream flow in the spring and winter, most sensitive to stream temperature in the fall and sensitive to both flow and temperature in the summer. High flow in the spring and winter had negative effects on population growth while high temperature had a negative effect in the fall. Flow had no effect when it was cold, but a positive effect when it was warm in the summer. Combined with occupancy and abundance models, these data give insight into the spatial structure of resilient populations and can help guide prioritization of management actions.

  20. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  1. Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee

  2. An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

  3. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  4. Validation of the Community Integration Questionnaire in the adult burn injury population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, Paul; Kazis, Lewis E; Ryan, Colleen M; Shie, Vivian L; Holavanahalli, Radha; Lee, Austin; Jette, Alan; Fauerbach, James A; Esselman, Peter; Herndon, David; Schneider, Jeffrey C

    2015-11-01

    With improved survival, long-term effects of burn injuries on quality of life, particularly community integration, are important outcomes. This study aims to assess the Community Integration Questionnaire's psychometric properties in the adult burn population. Data were obtained from a multicenter longitudinal data set of burn survivors. The psychometric properties of the Community Integration Questionnaire (n = 492) were examined. The questionnaire items were evaluated for clinical and substantive relevance; validation procedures were conducted on different samples of the population; construct validity was assessed using exploratory factor analysis; internal consistency reliability was examined using Cronbach's α statistics; and item response theory was applied to the final models. The CIQ-15 was reduced by two questions to form the CIQ-13, with a two-factor structure, interpreted as self/family care and social integration. Item response theory testing suggests that Factor 2 captures a wider range of community integration levels. Cronbach's α was 0.80 for Factor 1, 0.77 for Factor 2, and 0.79 for the test as a whole. The CIQ-13 demonstrates validity and reliability in the adult burn survivor population addressing issues of self/family care and social integration. This instrument is useful in future research of community reintegration outcomes in the burn population.

  5. Population-expression models of immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  6. Integrating genetic data and population viability analyses for the identification of harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations and management units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Morten Tange; Andersen, Liselotte Wesley; Dietz, Rune

    2014-01-01

    present a novel approach, integrating genetic, life-history and demographic data to identify populations and management units in southern Scandinavian harbour seals. First, 15 microsatellite markers and model- and distance-based genetic clustering methods were used to determine the population genetic...... structure in harbour seals. Second, we used harbour seal demographic and life-history data to conduct population viability analyses (PVAs) in the VORTEX simulation model in order to determine whether the inferred genetic units could be classified as management units according to Lowe and Allendorf's (2010......, and that the combined use of genetic data and PVAs constitute a promising approach for delineating populations and management units. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  7. Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

    2018-01-01

    A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

  8. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  9. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  10. Integrative structure modeling with the Integrative Modeling Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Benjamin; Viswanath, Shruthi; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Greenberg, Charles H; Saltzberg, Daniel; Sali, Andrej

    2018-01-01

    Building models of a biological system that are consistent with the myriad data available is one of the key challenges in biology. Modeling the structure and dynamics of macromolecular assemblies, for example, can give insights into how biological systems work, evolved, might be controlled, and even designed. Integrative structure modeling casts the building of structural models as a computational optimization problem, for which information about the assembly is encoded into a scoring function that evaluates candidate models. Here, we describe our open source software suite for integrative structure modeling, Integrative Modeling Platform (https://integrativemodeling.org), and demonstrate its use. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  11. The Challenges Of Integrating Population Issues Into Development ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamic is one of the prime factors for social, economic and technological change worldwide. As population size and composition change in an area, people have to adjust leading to innumerable alterations in the way society operates. The integration of population issues into development planning is crucial.

  12. An Integrated Model of Suicidal Ideation in Transcultural Populations of Chinese Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Cyrus L K; Kwok, Sylvia Y C L; Ling, Chloe C Y

    2016-07-01

    This study tested the model of suicidal ideation, incorporating family and personal factors to predict suicidal ideation with hopelessness as a mediating factor in the Hong Kong sample, to a sample in Shanghai. Using MGSEM, the study aims to investigate the personal correlates and the family correlates of suicidal ideation in Hong Kong and Shanghai adolescents. We integrated the family ecological and diathesis-stress-hopelessness models of suicidal ideation in connecting the correlates. A cross-sectional design was used. The full model achieved metric invariance and partial path-loading invariance. Family functioning and social problem solving negatively predicted hopelessness or suicidal ideation in both the Hong Kong and Shanghai adolescents. The results supported an integrative approach in facilitating parent-adolescent communication and strengthening family functioning, and reducing the use of negative social problem-solving styles in adolescent suicide prevention.

  13. Integrated Spectral Energy Distributions and Absorption Feature Indices of Single Stellar Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Fenghui; Han, Zhanwen; Li, Lifang; Hurley, Jarrod R.

    2004-01-01

    Using evolutionary population synthesis, we present integrated spectral energy distributions and absorption-line indices defined by the Lick Observatory image dissector scanner (referred to as Lick/IDS) system, for an extensive set of instantaneous burst single stellar populations (SSPs). The ages of the SSPs are in the range 1-19 Gyr and the metallicities [Fe/H] are in the range -2.3 - 0.2. Our models use the rapid single stellar evolution algorithm of Hurley, Pols and Tout for the stellar e...

  14. IMMIGRANTS’ INTEGRATION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARMEN UZLĂU

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the European population aging trend, and while the birth rate is still at a low level, the immigrants may contribute to the support of the EU economy and to finance the national social protection systems. But this would be possible only if they have been fully integrated in the host countries, the integration policies being a task of the national governments. The European Union may still offer support and stimulation through financing, policies coordination and good practices exchange facilitation. The new measures should encourage local level actions, including cooperation between local authorities, employers, migrants’ organizations, service providers and local population. Within the EU, there live 20.1 million immigrants (approximately 4% of the entire population coming from outside European area. An important element of the common EU policy on immigration is the one regarding the development of a policy on immigrants’ integration, which should provide a fair treatment within the member states, and guarantee rights and obligations comparable with the ones of the Union citizens.

  15. Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Conroy, Charlie; Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: ebyler@astro.washington.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

  16. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  17. Integrative inference of population history in the Ibero-Maghrebian endemic Pleurodeles waltl (Salamandridae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Jorge; Barbosa, A Márcia; Martínez-Solano, Íñigo

    2017-07-01

    Inference of population histories from the molecular signatures of past demographic processes is challenging, but recent methodological advances in species distribution models and their integration in time-calibrated phylogeographic studies allow detailed reconstruction of complex biogeographic scenarios. We apply an integrative approach to infer the evolutionary history of the Iberian ribbed newt (Pleurodeles waltl), an Ibero-Maghrebian endemic with populations north and south of the Strait of Gibraltar. We analyzed an extensive multilocus dataset (mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences and ten polymorphic microsatellite loci) and found a deep east-west phylogeographic break in Iberian populations dating back to the Plio-Pleistocene. This break is inferred to result from vicariance associated with the formation of the Guadalquivir river basin. In contrast with previous studies, North African populations showed exclusive mtDNA haplotypes, and formed a monophyletic clade within the Eastern Iberian lineage in the mtDNA genealogy. On the other hand, microsatellites failed to recover Moroccan populations as a differentiated genetic cluster. This is interpreted to result from post-divergence gene flow based on the results of IMA2 and Migrate analyses. Thus, Moroccan populations would have originated after overseas dispersal from the Iberian Peninsula in the Pleistocene, with subsequent gene flow in more recent times, implying at least two trans-marine dispersal events. We modeled the distribution of the species and of each lineage, and projected these models back in time to infer climatically favourable areas during the mid-Holocene, the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial (LIG), to reconstruct more recent population dynamics. We found minor differences in climatic favourability across lineages, suggesting intraspecific niche conservatism. Genetic diversity was significantly correlated with the intersection of environmental favourability in the LIG and

  18. Integration of priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems: systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeyi Olusoji

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Objective of the study was to assess the effects of strategies to integrate targeted priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems on patient health outcomes and health system effectiveness and thus to compare integrated and non-integrated health programmes. Methods Systematic review using Cochrane methodology of analysing randomised trials, controlled before-and-after and interrupted time series studies. We defined specific strategies to search PubMed, CENTRAL and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group register, considered studies published from January 1998 until September 2008, and tracked references and citations. Two reviewers independently agreed on eligibility, with an additional arbiter as needed, and extracted information on outcomes: primary (improved health, financial protection, and user satisfaction and secondary (improved population coverage, access to health services, efficiency, and quality using standardised, pre-piloted forms. Two reviewers in the final stage of selection jointly assessed quality of all selected studies using the GRADE criteria. Results Of 8,274 citations identified 12 studies met inclusion criteria. Four studies compared the benefits of Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses in Tanzania and Bangladesh, showing improved care management and higher utilisation of health facilities at no additional cost. Eight studies focused on integrated delivery of mental health and substance abuse services in the United Kingdom and United States of America. Integrated service delivery resulted in better clinical outcomes and greater reduction of substance abuse in specific sub-groups of patients, with no significant difference found overall. Quality of care, patient satisfaction, and treatment engagement were higher in integrated delivery models. Conclusions Targeted priority population health interventions we identified led to improved health

  19. Integration of priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atun, Rifat; de Jongh, Thyra E; Secci, Federica V; Ohiri, Kelechi; Adeyi, Olusoji; Car, Josip

    2011-10-10

    Objective of the study was to assess the effects of strategies to integrate targeted priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems on patient health outcomes and health system effectiveness and thus to compare integrated and non-integrated health programmes. Systematic review using Cochrane methodology of analysing randomised trials, controlled before-and-after and interrupted time series studies. We defined specific strategies to search PubMed, CENTRAL and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group register, considered studies published from January 1998 until September 2008, and tracked references and citations. Two reviewers independently agreed on eligibility, with an additional arbiter as needed, and extracted information on outcomes: primary (improved health, financial protection, and user satisfaction) and secondary (improved population coverage, access to health services, efficiency, and quality) using standardised, pre-piloted forms. Two reviewers in the final stage of selection jointly assessed quality of all selected studies using the GRADE criteria. Of 8,274 citations identified 12 studies met inclusion criteria. Four studies compared the benefits of Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses in Tanzania and Bangladesh, showing improved care management and higher utilisation of health facilities at no additional cost. Eight studies focused on integrated delivery of mental health and substance abuse services in the United Kingdom and United States of America. Integrated service delivery resulted in better clinical outcomes and greater reduction of substance abuse in specific sub-groups of patients, with no significant difference found overall. Quality of care, patient satisfaction, and treatment engagement were higher in integrated delivery models. Targeted priority population health interventions we identified led to improved health outcomes, quality of care, patient satisfaction and access to care

  20. Model integration and a theory of models

    OpenAIRE

    Dolk, Daniel R.; Kottemann, Jeffrey E.

    1993-01-01

    Model integration extends the scope of model management to include the dimension of manipulation as well. This invariably leads to comparisons with database theory. Model integration is viewed from four perspectives: Organizational, definitional, procedural, and implementational. Strategic modeling is discussed as the organizational motivation for model integration. Schema and process integration are examined as the logical and manipulation counterparts of model integr...

  1. Integrated community-based dementia care: the Geriant model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludo Glimmerveen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article gives an in-depth description of the service delivery model of Geriant, a Dutch organization providing community-based care services for people suffering from dementia. Core to its model is the provision of clinical case management, embedded in multidisciplinary dementia care teams. As Geriant's client group includes people from the first presumption of dementia until they can no longer live at home, its care model provides valuable lessons about how different mechanisms of integration are flexibly put to use if the complexity of clients” care needs increases. It showcases how the integration of services for a specific sub-population is combined with alignment of these services with generalist network partners. After a detailed description of the programme and its results, this article builds on the work of Walter Leutz for a conceptual discussion of Geriant's approach to care integration

  2. KEEFEKTIFAN MODEL CONNECTED DAN INTEGRATED DALAM PEMBELAJARAN IPS SMP DI KOTA YOGYAKARTA

    OpenAIRE

    Idrus idrus

    2011-01-01

    This research aimed to: (1) analyze the differences in social studies learning achievement between the students using connected and integrated models and those using conventional model; and (2) analyze the hierarchy of the effect of the learning models  among the connected, integrated, and conventional. This experimental research employed a matching post-test comparison group design. The population of this research was National Standardized Schools of Junior Secondary Schools in Yogya...

  3. Consulting Psychiatry within an Integrated Primary Care Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiter, Elizabeth A. Zeidler; Pandhi, Nancy; Fondow, Meghan D. M.; Thomas, Chantelle; Vonk, Jantina; Reardon, Claudia L.; Serrano, Neftali

    2014-01-01

    Summary After implementation of an integrated consulting psychiatry model and psychology services within primary care at a federally qualified health center, patients have increased access to needed mental health services, and primary care clinicians receive the support and collaboration needed to meet the psychiatric needs of the population. PMID:24185149

  4. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  5. Modelling nutritional mutualisms: challenges and opportunities for data integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Teresa J; Friel, Colleen A; Grman, Emily; Shachar-Hill, Yair; Friesen, Maren L

    2017-09-01

    Nutritional mutualisms are ancient, widespread, and profoundly influential in biological communities and ecosystems. Although much is known about these interactions, comprehensive answers to fundamental questions, such as how resource availability and structured interactions influence mutualism persistence, are still lacking. Mathematical modelling of nutritional mutualisms has great potential to facilitate the search for comprehensive answers to these and other fundamental questions by connecting the physiological and genomic underpinnings of mutualisms with ecological and evolutionary processes. In particular, when integrated with empirical data, models enable understanding of underlying mechanisms and generalisation of principles beyond the particulars of a given system. Here, we demonstrate how mathematical models can be integrated with data to address questions of mutualism persistence at four biological scales: cell, individual, population, and community. We highlight select studies where data has been or could be integrated with models to either inform model structure or test model predictions. We also point out opportunities to increase model rigour through tighter integration with data, and describe areas in which data is urgently needed. We focus on plant-microbe systems, for which a wealth of empirical data is available, but the principles and approaches can be generally applied to any nutritional mutualism. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  6. Integrating chemical fate and population-level effect models of pesticides: the importance of capturing the right scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Focks, A.; Horst, ter M.M.S.; Berg, van den E.; Baveco, H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Any attempt to introduce more ecological realism into ecological risk assessment of chemicals faces the major challenge of integrating different aspects of the chemicals and species of concern, for example, spatial scales of emissions, chemical exposure patterns in space and time, and population

  7. Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

    2016-10-01

    Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

  8. Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uyterlinde, M.A.

    1994-06-01

    Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs

  9. Integrated Modelling in CRUCIAL Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mukhamedzhanova, Elena; Nerobelov, Georgiy; Sedeeva, Margarita; Suhodskiy, Alexander; Mostamandy, Suleiman; Smyshlyaev, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    The NordForsk CRUCIAL project (2016-2017) "Critical steps in understanding land surface - atmosphere interactions: from improved knowledge to socioeconomic solutions" as a part of the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) programme activities, is looking for a deeper collaboration between Nordic-Russian science communities. In particular, following collaboration between Danish and Russian partners, several topics were selected for joint research and are focused on evaluation of: (1) urbanization processes impact on changes in urban weather and climate on urban-subregional-regional scales and at contribution to assessment studies for population and environment; (2) effects of various feedback mechanisms on aerosol and cloud formation and radiative forcing on urban-regional scales for better predicting extreme weather events and at contribution to early warning systems, (3) environmental contamination from continues emissions and industrial accidents for better assessment and decision making for sustainable social and economic development, and (4) climatology of atmospheric boundary layer in northern latitudes to improve understanding of processes, revising parameterizations, and better weather forecasting. These research topics are realized employing the online integrated Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) model within students' research projects: (1) "Online integrated high-resolution modelling of Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area influence on weather and air pollution forecasting"; (2) "Modeling of aerosol impact on regional-urban scales: case study of Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area"; (3) "Regional modeling and GIS evaluation of environmental pollution from Kola Peninsula sources"; and (4) "Climatology of the High-Latitude Planetary Boundary Layer". The students' projects achieved results and planned young scientists research training on online integrated modelling (Jun 2017) will be presented and

  10. Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

    2017-10-01

    We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

  11. Effectiveness of integrated care model for type 2 diabetes: A population-based study in Reggio Emilia (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballotari, Paola; Venturelli, Francesco; Manicardi, Valeria; Ferrari, Francesca; Vicentini, Massimo; Greci, Marina; Pignatti, Fabio; Storani, Simone; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    To compare the effectiveness of integrated care with that of the diabetes clinic care model in terms of mortality and hospitalisation of type 2 diabetes patients with low risk of complications. Out of 27234 people with type 2 diabetes residing in the province of Reggio Emilia on 31/12/2011, 3071 were included in this cohort study as eligible for integrated care (i.e., low risk of complications) and cared for with the same care model for at least two years. These patients were followed up from 2012 to 2016, for all-cause and diabetes-related mortality and hospital admissions. We performed a Poisson regression model, using the proportion of eligible patients included in the integrated care model for each general practitioner as an instrumental variable. 1700 patients were cared for by integrated care and 1371 by diabetes clinics. Mortality rate ratios were 0.83 (95%CI 0.60-1.13) and 0.95 (95%CI 0.54-1.70) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, and incidence rate ratios were 0.90 (95%CI 0.76-1.06) and 0.91 (95%CI 0.69-1.20) for all-cause and cardiovascular disease hospitalisation, respectively. For low risk patients with type 2 diabetes, the integrated care model involving both general practitioner and diabetes clinic professionals showed similar mortality and hospitalisation as a model with higher use of specialized care in an exclusively diabetes clinic setting.

  12. An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

    2000-08-01

    Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

  13. Global human capital: integrating education and population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

    2011-07-29

    Almost universally, women with higher levels of education have fewer children. Better education is associated with lower mortality, better health, and different migration patterns. Hence, the global population outlook depends greatly on further progress in education, particularly of young women. By 2050, the highest and lowest education scenarios--assuming identical education-specific fertility rates--result in world population sizes of 8.9 and 10.0 billion, respectively. Better education also matters for human development, including health, economic growth, and democracy. Existing methods of multi-state demography can quantitatively integrate education into standard demographic analysis, thus adding the "quality" dimension.

  14. High-resolution modelling of health impacts from air pollution using the integrated model system EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Silver, Jeremy D.

    2014-05-01

    A high-resolution assessment of health impacts from air pollution and related external cost has been conducted for Denmark using the integrated EVA model system. The EVA system has been further developed by implementing an air quality model with a 1 km x 1 km resolution covering the whole of Denmark. New developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over several decades. Furthermore, the sensitivity of health impacts to model resolution will be studied. We have developed an integrated model system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. In Brandt et al. (2013a; 2013b), the EVA system was used to assess the impacts in Europe and Denmark from the past, present and future total air pollution levels as well as the contribution from the major anthropogenic emission sectors. The EVA system was applied using the hemispheric chemistry-transport model, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), with nesting capability for higher resolution over Europe (50 km x 50 km) and Northern Europe (16.7 km x 16.7 km). In this study an Urban Background Model (UBM) has been further developed to cover the whole of Denmark with a 1 km x 1 km resolution and the model has been implemented as a part of the integrated model system, EVA. The EVA system is based on the impact-pathway methodology. The site-specific emissions will result (via atmospheric transport and chemistry) in a concentration distribution, which together with detailed population data, are used to estimate the population-level exposure. Using exposure-response functions and economic valuations, the exposure is transformed into impacts on human health and related external costs. In this study

  15. Metal-rich, Metal-poor: Updated Stellar Population Models for Old Stellar Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, Charlie; Villaume, Alexa; van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Lind, Karin

    2018-02-01

    We present updated stellar population models appropriate for old ages (>1 Gyr) and covering a wide range in metallicities (‑1.5 ≲ [Fe/H] ≲ 0.3). These models predict the full spectral variation associated with individual element abundance variation as a function of metallicity and age. The models span the optical–NIR wavelength range (0.37–2.4 μm), include a range of initial mass functions, and contain the flexibility to vary 18 individual elements including C, N, O, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, and Fe. To test the fidelity of the models, we fit them to integrated light optical spectra of 41 Galactic globular clusters (GCs). The value of testing models against GCs is that their ages, metallicities, and detailed abundance patterns have been derived from the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram in combination with high-resolution spectroscopy of individual stars. We determine stellar population parameters from fits to all wavelengths simultaneously (“full spectrum fitting”), and demonstrate explicitly with mock tests that this approach produces smaller uncertainties at fixed signal-to-noise ratio than fitting a standard set of 14 line indices. Comparison of our integrated-light results to literature values reveals good agreement in metallicity, [Fe/H]. When restricting to GCs without prominent blue horizontal branch populations, we also find good agreement with literature values for ages, [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [Ti/Fe].

  16. Edaphic history over seedling characters predicts integration and plasticity of integration across geologically variable populations of Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, Elsa A; Murren, Courtney J

    2017-12-01

    Studies on phenotypic plasticity and plasticity of integration have uncovered functionally linked modules of aboveground traits and seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana , but we lack details about belowground variation in adult plants. Functional modules can be comprised of additional suites of traits that respond to environmental variation. We assessed whether shoot and root responses to nutrient environments in adult A. thaliana were predictable from seedling traits or population-specific geologic soil characteristics at the site of origin. We compared 17 natural accessions from across the native range of A. thaliana using 14-day-old seedlings grown on agar or sand and plants grown to maturity across nutrient treatments in sand. We measured aboveground size, reproduction, timing traits, root length, and root diameter. Edaphic characteristics were obtained from a global-scale dataset and related to field data. We detected significant among-population variation in root traits of seedlings and adults and in plasticity in aboveground and belowground traits of adult plants. Phenotypic integration of roots and shoots varied by population and environment. Relative integration was greater in roots than in shoots, and integration was predicted by edaphic soil history, particularly organic carbon content, whereas seedling traits did not predict later ontogenetic stages. Soil environment of origin has significant effects on phenotypic plasticity in response to nutrients, and on phenotypic integration of root modules and shoot modules. Root traits varied among populations in reproductively mature individuals, indicating potential for adaptive and integrated functional responses of root systems in annuals. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  17. World population in transition : An integrated regional modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilderink, Henricus Bernardus Maria

    2000-01-01

    The world’s population reached the milestone of 6 billion in 1999 and increases by around 150 persons each minute. In the last few decades, population growth seen in the light of limited natural and economic resources has become of growing concern. Now, at the beginning of a new millennium,

  18. [Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

    2016-07-12

    To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

  19. Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models

  20. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  1. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    and outside the IAM. All IAM projections to date are conditional on assumed inputs such as population dynamics and economic growth. A key part of evaluation exercises will be the substantial effort needed to develop the necessary historical datasets. Given the fundamentally uncertain characteristics of the socio-economic system, alternative formulations of the evaluation question may turn out to be useful. For example, is is likely useful to ask: how much needs to be specified on order to be able to reproduce historical trends to within a given accuracy? There is also a close, and fundamental, link between evaluation and diagnostic exercises that aim to evaluate the characteristics of future scenarios (rates of growth, technology diffusion, etc.) against historical behavior. These exercises are currently being conducted by individual groups due, in part, due to the large diversity if IAM designs and goals. While all climate models are, to first order, modeling the same system, boundary conditions, and physical laws, this is not true for IAMs. The structure, and even feasibility, of a hindcast-style evaluation exercise can be very different depending on the structure of each specific integrated assessment model.

  2. Diverse methods for integrable models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fehér, G.

    2017-01-01

    This thesis is centered around three topics, sharing integrability as a common theme. This thesis explores different methods in the field of integrable models. The first two chapters are about integrable lattice models in statistical physics. The last chapter describes an integrable quantum chain.

  3. A model of interval timing by neural integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simen, Patrick; Balci, Fuat; de Souza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D; Holmes, Philip

    2011-06-22

    We show that simple assumptions about neural processing lead to a model of interval timing as a temporal integration process, in which a noisy firing-rate representation of time rises linearly on average toward a response threshold over the course of an interval. Our assumptions include: that neural spike trains are approximately independent Poisson processes, that correlations among them can be largely cancelled by balancing excitation and inhibition, that neural populations can act as integrators, and that the objective of timed behavior is maximal accuracy and minimal variance. The model accounts for a variety of physiological and behavioral findings in rodents, monkeys, and humans, including ramping firing rates between the onset of reward-predicting cues and the receipt of delayed rewards, and universally scale-invariant response time distributions in interval timing tasks. It furthermore makes specific, well-supported predictions about the skewness of these distributions, a feature of timing data that is usually ignored. The model also incorporates a rapid (potentially one-shot) duration-learning procedure. Human behavioral data support the learning rule's predictions regarding learning speed in sequences of timed responses. These results suggest that simple, integration-based models should play as prominent a role in interval timing theory as they do in theories of perceptual decision making, and that a common neural mechanism may underlie both types of behavior.

  4. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  5. Guidelines for integrating population education into primary education and literacy programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    In recent seminars and workshops in the Asia and Pacific region the integration of population education into primary schools and literacy programs were the main topics. In most of the countries in this area separate courses in population education appear to be unfeasible for primary and secondary schools. In the nonformal area experience has indicated that population education acquires more meaning and relevance if it is integrated into an ongoing development program. The integration approach requires knowledge of the contents of the accommodating subjects or programs and knowledge of the contents of the accommodating subjects or programs and knowledge of the contents of population education. Guidelines suggested include the following steps in developing an integrated curriculum and instructional materials. First determine the needs, characteristics and other background information needed on the target group. Next prioritize the problems and needs of the target group, and formulate educational objectives from the identified needs and problems. Next determine and sequence the curriculum contents and then determine specific population education objectives and contents for integration, and what specific materials have to be developed. Then identify the specific type of format of materials to be developed, and write the first draft of the material. Also prepare illustrations and other art and graphic materials. Then the draft material should be reviewed and translated into the language of the target audience if needed. The materials should then be pretested, or field tested, using a sample of the intended users. To make sure the materials are reaching the target groups and being used effectively, a user's guide should be prepared and teachers and facilitators, as well as supervisors, should be prepared on the use of the material. In addition, a distribution and utilization plan should be prepared. Nonformal education materials can be distributed through libraries

  6. Developing Integrated Care: Towards a development model for integrated care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M.N. Minkman (Mirella)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe thesis adresses the phenomenon of integrated care. The implementation of integrated care for patients with a stroke or dementia is studied. Because a generic quality management model for integrated care is lacking, the study works towards building a development model for integrated

  7. Integrated socio-environmental modelling: A test case in coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazar, Attila

    2013-04-01

    Delta regions are vulnerable with their populations and ecosystems facing multiple threats in the coming decades through extremes of poverty, environmental and ecological stress and land degradation. External and internal processes initiate these threats/changes and results in for example water quality and health risk issues, declining agricultural productivity and sediment starvation all of which directly affecting the local population. The ESPA funded "Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas" project (2012-16) aims to provide policy makers with the knowledge and tools to enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on people's livelihoods. It considers coastal Bangladesh in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta: one of the world's most dynamic and significant deltas. This is being done by a multidisciplinary and multinational team of policy analysts, social and natural scientists and engineers using a participatory, holistic approach to formally evaluate ecosystem services and poverty in the context of the wide range of changes that are occurring. An integrated model with relevant feedbacks is being developed to explore options for management strategies and policy formulation for ecosystem services, livelihoods and health in coastal Bangladesh. This requires the continuous engagement with stakeholders through the following steps: (1) system characterisation, (2) research question definition, (3) data and model identification, (4) model validation and (5) model application. This presentation will focus on the first three steps. Field-based social science and governance related research are on the way. The bio-physical models have been selected and some are already set up for the study area. These allow preliminary conceptualisation of the elements and linkages of the deltaic socio-environmental system and thus the preliminary structure of the integrated model. This presentation describes these steps

  8. And So It Grows: Using a Computer-Based Simulation of a Population Growth Model to Integrate Biology & Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Garrett M.; Laubach, Timothy A.

    2013-01-01

    We provide a 5E structured-inquiry lesson so that students can learn more of the mathematics behind the logistic model of population biology. By using models and mathematics, students understand how population dynamics can be influenced by relatively simple changes in the environment.

  9. [Integrated treatment of cooccurring mental and substance use disorders in urban populations : the situation in Montréal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubreucq, Simon; Chanut, Florence; Jutras-Aswad, Didier

    2012-01-01

    The prevalence of patients diagnosed with both a psychiatric and an addiction disorder is considerable. Like many other large urban centers, Montreal harbors many of these socially marginalized individuals. In spite of a wide range of resources for the treatment of each condition taken singly, there has been until recently an alarming dearth of programs aimed at providing integrated treatment models. In recent years, the CHUM has endeavored to implement such a program in order to address the multiple needs of a population often rendered vulnerable in many respects. In this article, the authors address the magnitude of this "dual diagnosis" problem, existing intervention models and the obstacles faced by this population in terms of access to health care ; they describe the steps leading to the establishment of an Addiction Psychiatric Unit at the CHUM and the challenges arising from the creation of a multidisciplinary integrated treatment model in an urban setting.

  10. KEEFEKTIFAN MODEL CONNECTED DAN INTEGRATED DALAM PEMBELAJARAN IPS SMP DI KOTA YOGYAKARTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idrus idrus

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to: (1 analyze the differences in social studies learning achievement between the students using connected and integrated models and those using conventional model; and (2 analyze the hierarchy of the effect of the learning models  among the connected, integrated, and conventional. This experimental research employed a matching post-test comparison group design. The population of this research was National Standardized Schools of Junior Secondary Schools in Yogyakarta. The technique used for sample drawing was multistage sampling. In this research, the independent variable was the learning model which consisted of three categories: integrated, connected, and conventional models. The dependent variable was the mean score of students’ learning achievement in social studies subject. Data collection was done by means of an achievement test. Instrument validation was done by discriminating power and difficulty index, while the reliability was calculated by KR-20. The pre-requisite  test included normality and homogeneity tests. The normality test used Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the homogeneity test used Levene Test. Data were analyzed in one way anova analysis and continued with Scheffe comparison test on the significance level of 0.05. The results of the experiment show that there are  significant difference among the students’ learning achievement who used integrated, connected, and conventional models. The continued test using Scheffe ensured that the integrated model was more effective than the connected and conventional models, while the connected model was more effective in improving the students’ learning achievement in social studies subject compared with the conventional model. Therefore, the hierarchy of the effect of the learning models is first the integrated model followed by connected and conventional models. Key words: Connected, Integrated Models, Social Studies Learning

  11. Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

    2013-01-01

    Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

  12. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  13. Designing a framework to design a business model for the 'bottom of the pyramid' population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ver loren van Themaat, Tanye; Schutte, Cornelius S.L.; Lutters, Diederick

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a framework for developing and designing a business model to target the bottom of the pyramid (BoP) population. Using blue ocean strategy and business model literature, integrated with research on the BoP, the framework offers a systematic approach for organisations to analyse

  14. The Ambulatory Integration of the Medical and Social (AIMS) model: A retrospective evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Jeannine M; Rizzo, Victoria M; Shier Kricke, Gayle; Krajci, Kate; Rodriguez-Morales, Grisel; Newman, Michelle; Golden, Robyn

    2016-01-01

    An exploratory, retrospective evaluation of Ambulatory Integration of the Medical and Social (AIMS), a care coordination model designed to integrate medical and non-medical needs of patients and delivered exclusively by social workers was conducted to examine mean utilization of costly health care services for older adult patients. Results reveal mean utilization of 30-day hospital readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospital admissions are significantly lower for the study sample compared to the larger patient population. Comparisons with national population statistics reveal significantly lower mean utilization of 30-day admissions and ED visits for the study sample. The findings offer preliminary support regarding the value of AIMS.

  15. Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Heligman-Pollard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Mohd, Razak; Ngataman, Nuraini; Abrisam, Wan Nur Azifah Wan Mohd

    2017-08-01

    Actuaries, demographers and other professionals have always been aware of the critical importance of mortality forecasting due to declining trend of mortality and continuous increases in life expectancy. Heligman-Pollard model was introduced in 1980 and has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. This paper aims to estimate an eight-parameter model based on Heligman and Pollard's law of mortality. Since the model involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 7.0 (MATLAB 7.0) software will be used in order to estimate the parameters. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) will be applied to forecast all the parameters according to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The empirical data sets of Malaysian population for period of 1981 to 2015 for both genders will be considered, which the period of 1981 to 2010 will be used as "training set" and the period of 2011 to 2015 as "testing set". In order to investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecast results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The result shows that Heligman-Pollard model fit well for male population at all ages while the model seems to underestimate the mortality rates for female population at the older ages.

  16. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  17. Qualitative Analysis of Integration Adapter Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ritter, Daniel; Holzleitner, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Integration Adapters are a fundamental part of an integration system, since they provide (business) applications access to its messaging channel. However, their modeling and configuration remain under-represented. In previous work, the integration control and data flow syntax and semantics have been expressed in the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) as a semantic model for message-based integration, while adapter and the related quality of service modeling were left for further studi...

  18. Integrability of the Rabi Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braak, D.

    2011-01-01

    The Rabi model is a paradigm for interacting quantum systems. It couples a bosonic mode to the smallest possible quantum model, a two-level system. I present the analytical solution which allows us to consider the question of integrability for quantum systems that do not possess a classical limit. A criterion for quantum integrability is proposed which shows that the Rabi model is integrable due to the presence of a discrete symmetry. Moreover, I introduce a generalization with no symmetries; the generalized Rabi model is the first example of a nonintegrable but exactly solvable system.

  19. Application of Model Project Based Learning on Integrated Science in Water Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Y.; Permanasari, A.; Redjeki, S.; Sopandi, W.

    2017-09-01

    The function of this research was to analyze the influence model Project Based Learning (PjBl) on integrated science about the concept mastery for junior high school students. Method used for this research constitutes the quasi of experiment method. Population and sample for this research are the students junior high school in Bandung as many as two classes to be experiment and control class. The instrument that used for this research is the test concept mastery, assessment questionnaire of product and the questionnaire responses of the student about learning integrated science. Based on the result of this research get some data that with accomplishment the model of PjBl. Learning authority of integrated science can increase the concept mastery for junior high school students. The highest increase in the theme of pollution water is in the concept of mixtures and the separation method. The students give a positive response in learning of integrated science for the theme of pollution of the water used model PjBL with questionnaire of the opinion aspect in amount of 83.5%, the anxiety of the students in amount of 95.5%, the profit learning model of PjBL in amount of 96.25% and profit learning of integrated science in amount of 95.75%.

  20. POPULATION STRUCTURES OF FOUR TREE SPECIES IN LOGGED-OVER TROPICAL FOREST IN SOUTH PAPUA, INDONESIA: AN INTEGRAL PROJECTION MODEL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relawan kuswandi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Selective logging has been taking place in Papua for several decades. In contrast, very little is known about the stand structure in post-logged forest. Hence, this paper investigates stand structures in logged-over area of tropical forest in South Papua. Four species were selected in three one-hectare permanent sample plots (PSPs: Vatica rassak, Syzygium sp, Litsea timoriana and Canarium asperum. PSPs were located in the forest concession area of PT. Tunas Sawaerma in Assiki, Boven Digul, in South Papua. Data sets comprised measurements made in 2005 and 2012 consisting of species, diameter at breast height (DBH, mortality and number of tree of each species. Integral Projection Models (IPMs were developed, taking into account mortality, growth, recruitment and fecundity. Results show the pattern of stand structures of the four species were more or less similar, i.e. more individual trees were present in the small diameter classes than in the larger diameter classes. The general pattern of the individual distribution of the four species is the typical reverse-J shape. Syzygium sp. has a greater number of individuals in the small diameter classes than the other three species. Population growth rates (λ are above one, indicating that the stand structures of the population dynamics of the four species are recuperating. Conclusively, these results suggest that species composition and population structure in these logged-over forests are recovering increasingly.

  1. Population pharmacokinetic model of THC integrates oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dosing and characterizes short- and long-term pharmacokinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuberger, Jules A A C; Guan, Zheng; Oyetayo, Olubukayo-Opeyemi; Klumpers, Linda; Morrison, Paul D; Beumer, Tim L; van Gerven, Joop M A; Cohen, Adam F; Freijer, Jan

    2015-02-01

    Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannobinol (THC), the main psychoactive compound of Cannabis, is known to have a long terminal half-life. However, this characteristic is often ignored in pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of THC, which may affect the accuracy of predictions in different pharmacologic areas. For therapeutic use for example, it is important to accurately describe the terminal phase of THC to describe accumulation of the drug. In early clinical research, the THC challenge test can be optimized through more accurate predictions of the dosing sequence and the wash-out between occasions in a crossover setting, which is mainly determined by the terminal half-life of the compound. The purpose of this study is to better quantify the long-term pharmacokinetics of THC. A population-based PK model for THC was developed describing the profile up to 48 h after an oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dose of THC in humans. In contrast to earlier models, the current model integrates all three major administration routes and covers the long terminal phase of THC. Results show that THC has a fast initial and intermediate half-life, while the apparent terminal half-life is long (21.5 h), with a clearance of 38.8 L/h. Because the current model characterizes the long-term pharmacokinetics, it can be used to assess the accumulation of THC in a multiple-dose setting and to forecast concentration profiles of the drug under many different dosing regimens or administration routes. Additionally, this model could provide helpful insights into the THC challenge test used for the development of (novel) compounds targeting the cannabinoid system for different therapeutic applications and could improve decision making in future clinical trials.

  2. MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei OGREZEANU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.

  3. Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

    2017-08-01

    We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

  4. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

  5. Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzoni, Alberto; Linden, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local f...... in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo....

  6. Integrated genetic linkage map of cultivated peanut by three RIL populations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanbin Song; Huifang Jiang; Huaiyong Luo; Li Huang; Yuning Chen; Weigang Chen; Nian Liu; Xiaoping Ren; Bolun Yu; Jianbin Guo

    2017-01-01

    High-density and precise genetic linkage map is fundamental to detect quanti-tative trait locus (QTL) of agronomic and quality related traits in cultivated peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.). In this study, three linkage maps from three RIL (recombinant inbred line) populations were used to construct an integrated map. A total of 2,069 SSR and transposon markers were anchored on the high-density integrated map which covered 2,231.53 cM with 20 linkage groups. Totally, 92 QTLs correlating with pod length (PL), pod width (PW), hun-dred pods weight (HPW) and plant height (PH) from above RIL populations were mapped on it. Seven intervals were found to harbor QTLs controlling the same traits in different pop-ulations, including one for PL, three for PW, two for HPW, and one for PH. Besides, QTLs controlling different traits in different populations were found to be overlapped in four inter-vals. Interval on A05 contains 17 QTLs for different traits from two RIL populations. New markers were added to these intervals to detect QTLs with narrow confidential intervals. Results obtained in this study may facilitate future genomic researches such as QTL study, fine mapping, positional cloning and marker-assisted selection (MAS) in peanut.

  7. Topological quantum theories and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keski-Vakkuri, E.; Niemi, A.J.; Semenoff, G.; Tirkkonen, O.

    1991-01-01

    The path-integral generalization of the Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula is investigated for integrable models. It is shown that for models with periodic classical trajectories the path integral reduces to a form similar to the finite-dimensional Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula. This provides a relation between exactness of the stationary-phase approximation and Morse theory. It is also argued that certain integrable models can be related to topological quantum theories. Finally, it is found that in general the stationary-phase approximation presumes that the initial and final configurations are in different polarizations. This is exemplified by the quantization of the SU(2) coadjoint orbit

  8. Business and technology integrated model

    OpenAIRE

    Noce, Irapuan; Carvalho, João Álvaro

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing interest in business modeling and architecture in the areas of management and information systems. One of the issues in the area is the lack of integration between the modeling techniques that are employed to support business development and those used for technology modeling. This paper proposes a modeling approach that is capable of integrating the modeling of the business and of the technology. By depicting the business model, the organization structure and the technolog...

  9. Strategic plan modelling by hospital senior administration to integrate diversity management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, John J

    2010-11-01

    Limited research suggests that some hospital senior administrators and chief executive officers (CEOs) have employed a strategic planning function to achieve diversity management practices. As the hospital industry struggles with how to integrate diversity practices to improve patient satisfaction, increase the quality of care and enhance clinical outcomes for minority populations, understanding the planning process involved in this endeavour becomes significant for senior hospital administrators. What is not well understood is what this strategic planning process represents and how it is applied to integrate diversity management. Scant research exists about the type of strategic models that hospital CEOs employ when they wish to reposition their organizations through diversity management. This study examines the strategic planning models used by senior administrators to integrate diversity management for an institutional-wide agenda. A qualitative survey process was used for CEOs in the states of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The key research questions dealt with what type of strategic plan approach senior administrators used for integrating diversity management and what rationale they used to pursue this. Significant differences were reported between three types of strategic plan modelling used by CEOs. Also, when comparing past and current practices over time, such differences existed. The need to integrate diversity management is underscored by this study. How senior hospital administrators apply strategic plan models and what impact these approaches have represent the major implications that this study offers.

  10. A community model of ciliate Tetrahymena and bacteria E. coli. Part 1: Individual-based models of Tetrahymena and E. coli populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaworska, J.S.; Hallam, T.G.; Schultz, T.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1996-03-01

    The dynamics of a microbial community consisting of a eucaryotic ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis and procaryotic. Escherichia coli in a batch culture is explored by employing an individual-based approach. In this portion of the article, Part 1, population models are presented. Because both models are individual-based, models of individual organisms are developed prior to construction of the population models. The individual models use an energy budget method in which growth depends on energy gain from feeding and energy sinks such as maintenance and reproduction. These models are not limited by simplifying assumptions about constant yield, constant energy sinks and Monod growth kinetics as are traditional models of microbial organisms. Population models are generated from individual models by creating distinct individual types and assigning to each type the number of real individuals they represent. A population is a compilation of individual types that vary in a phase of cell cycle and physiological parameters such as filtering rate for ciliates and maximum anabolic rate for bacteria. An advantage of the developed models is that they realistically describe the growth of the individual cells feeding on resource which varies in density and composition. Part 2, the core of the project, integrates models into a dynamic microbial community and provides model analysis based upon available data.

  11. Removing the Blinders: Toward an Integrative Model of Organizational Change in Sport and Physical Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, George B.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the nature of the change process in physical education and sports, presenting a model to incorporate in studies of radical organizational change. The integration of four theories (institutionalism, population ecology, strategic choice, and resource dependence) provides the basis for the model. The paper offers a hypothetical example and…

  12. Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

    2015-01-01

    Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

  13. INTEGRATED CORPORATE STRATEGY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CATALINA SORIANA SITNIKOV

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Corporations are at present operating in demanding and highly unsure periods, facing a mixture of increased macroeconomic need, competitive and capital market dangers, and in many cases, the prospect for significant technical and regulative gap. Throughout these demanding and highly unsure times, the corporations must pay particular attention to corporate strategy. In present times, corporate strategy must be perceived and used as a function of various fields, covers, and characters as well as a highly interactive system. For the corporation's strategy to become a competitive advantage is necessary to understand and also to integrate it in a holistic model to ensure sustainable progress of corporation activities under the optimum conditions of profitability. The model proposed in this paper is aimed at integrating the two strategic models, Hoshin Kanri and Integrated Strategy Model, as well as their consolidation with the principles of sound corporate governance set out by the OECD.

  14. A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

    2013-02-18

    The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

  15. Modeling evolutionary games in populations with demographic structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xiang-Yi; Giaimo, Stefano; Baudisch, Annette

    2015-01-01

    interactions, but usually omits life history and the demographic structure of the population. Here we show how an integration of both aspects can substantially alter the underlying evolutionary dynamics. We study the replicator dynamics of strategy interactions in life stage structured populations. Individuals...

  16. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  17. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  18. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  19. Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

    2017-12-01

    Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

  20. Integrated Bali Cattle Development Model Under Oil Palm Plantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasali Hakim Matondang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Bali cattle have several advantages such as high fertility and carcass percentage, easy adaptation to the new environment as well. Bali cattle productivity has not been optimal yet. This is due to one of the limitation of feed resources, decreasing of grazing and agricultural land. The aim of this paper is to describe Bali cattle development integrated with oil palm plantations, which is expected to improve productivity and increase Bali cattle population. This integration model is carried out by raising Bali cattle under oil palm plantation through nucleus estate scheme model or individual farmers estates business. Some of Bali cattle raising systems have been applied in the integration of palm plantation-Bali cattle. One of the intensive systems can increase daily weight gain of 0.8 kg/head, calfcrop of 35% per year and has the potency for industrial development of feed and organic fertilizer. In the semi-intensive system, it can improve the production of oil palm fruit bunches (PFB more than 10%, increase harvested-crop area to 15 ha/farmer and reduce the amount of inorganic fertilizer. The extensive system can produce calfcrop ³70%, improve ³30% of PFB, increase business scale ³13 cows/farmer and reduce weeding costs ³16%. Integrated Bali cattle development may provide positive added value for both, palm oil business and cattle business.

  1. Separations and safeguards model integration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B.; Zinaman, Owen

    2010-09-01

    Research and development of advanced reprocessing plant designs can greatly benefit from the development of a reprocessing plant model capable of transient solvent extraction chemistry. This type of model can be used to optimize the operations of a plant as well as the designs for safeguards, security, and safety. Previous work has integrated a transient solvent extraction simulation module, based on the Solvent Extraction Process Having Interaction Solutes (SEPHIS) code developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with the Separations and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) developed at Sandia National Laboratory, as a first step toward creating a more versatile design and evaluation tool. The goal of this work was to strengthen the integration by linking more variables between the two codes. The results from this integrated model show expected operational performance through plant transients. Additionally, ORIGEN source term files were integrated into the SSPM to provide concentrations, radioactivity, neutron emission rate, and thermal power data for various spent fuels. This data was used to generate measurement blocks that can determine the radioactivity, neutron emission rate, or thermal power of any stream or vessel in the plant model. This work examined how the code could be expanded to integrate other separation steps and benchmark the results to other data. Recommendations for future work will be presented.

  2. Integrative analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms and gene expression efficiently distinguishes samples from closely related ethnic populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hsin-Chou

    2012-07-01

    accuracies and a reduced number of selected markers in AIM panels. Conclusions Integrative analysis of SNP and GE markers provides high-accuracy and/or cost-effective classification results for assigning samples from closely related or distantly related ancestral lineages to their original ancestral populations. User-friendly BIASLESS (Biomarkers Identification and Samples Subdivision software was developed as an efficient tool for selecting key SNP and/or GE markers and then building models for sample subdivision. BIASLESS was programmed in R and R-GUI and is available online at http://www.stat.sinica.edu.tw/hsinchou/genetics/prediction/BIASLESS.htm.

  3. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  4. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  5. Entrainment and Control of Bacterial Populations: An in Silico Study over a Spatially Extended Agent Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, Petros; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Bernardo, Mario di

    2016-07-15

    We extend a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) developed previously to investigate entrainment and control of the emergent behavior of a population of synchronized oscillating cells in a microfluidic chamber. Unlike most of the work in models of control of cellular systems which focus on temporal changes, we model individual cells with spatial dependencies which may contribute to certain behavioral responses. We use the model to investigate the response of both open loop and closed loop strategies, such as proportional control (P-control), proportional-integral control (PI-control) and proportional-integral-derivative control (PID-control), to heterogeinities and growth in the cell population, variations of the control parameters and spatial effects such as diffusion in the spatially explicit setting of a microfluidic chamber setup. We show that, as expected from the theory of phase locking in dynamical systems, open loop control can only entrain the cell population in a subset of forcing periods, with a wide variety of dynamical behaviors obtained outside these regions of entrainment. Closed-loop control is shown instead to guarantee entrainment in a much wider region of control parameter space although presenting limitations when the population size increases over a certain threshold. In silico tracking experiments are also performed to validate the ability of classical control approaches to achieve other reference behaviors such as a desired constant output or a linearly varying one. All simulations are carried out in BSim, an advanced agent-based simulator of microbial population which is here extended ad hoc to include the effects of control strategies acting onto the population.

  6. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  7. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  8. Integrated Inflammatory Stress (ITIS) Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsgaard, Elisabeth O.; Hjorth, Poul G.; Olufsen, Mette S.

    2017-01-01

    maintains a long-term level of the stress hormone cortisol which is also anti-inflammatory. A new integrated model of the interaction between these two subsystems of the inflammatory system is proposed and coined the integrated inflammatory stress (ITIS) model. The coupling mechanisms describing....... A constant activation results in elevated levels of the variables in the model while a prolonged change of the oscillations in ACTH and cortisol concentrations is the most pronounced result of different LPS doses predicted by the model....

  9. Non-integrable quantum field theories as perturbations of certain integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delfino, G.; Simonetti, P.

    1996-03-01

    We approach the study of non-integrable models of two-dimensional quantum field theory as perturbations of the integrable ones. By exploiting the knowledge of the exact S-matrix and Form Factors of the integrable field theories we obtain the first order corrections to the mass ratios, the vacuum energy density and the S-matrix of the non-integrable theories. As interesting applications of the formalism, we study the scaling region of the Ising model in an external magnetic field at T ∼ T c and the scaling region around the minimal model M 2 , τ . For these models, a remarkable agreement is observed between the theoretical predictions and the data extracted by a numerical diagonalization of their Hamiltonian. (author). 41 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  10. An architecture for integration of multidisciplinary models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Holst, Niels

    2014-01-01

    Integrating multidisciplinary models requires linking models: that may operate at different temporal and spatial scales; developed using different methodologies, tools and techniques; different levels of complexity; calibrated for different ranges of inputs and outputs, etc. On the other hand......, Enterprise Application Integration, and Integration Design Patterns. We developed an architecture of a multidisciplinary model integration framework that brings these three aspects of integration together. Service-oriented-based platform independent architecture that enables to establish loosely coupled...

  11. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  12. Modelling the impact of toxic and disturbance stress on white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsman, John C; Schipper, Aafke M; Lenders, H J Rob; Foppen, Ruud P B; Hendriks, A Jan

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have related breeding success and survival of sea eagles to toxic or non-toxic stress separately. In the present investigation, we analysed single and combined impacts of both toxic and disturbance stress on populations of white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), using an analytical single-species model. Chemical and eco(toxico)logical data reported from laboratory and field studies were used to parameterise and validate the model. The model was applied to assess the impact of ∑PCB, DDE and disturbance stress on the white-tailed eagle population in The Netherlands. Disturbance stress was incorporated through a 1.6% reduction in survival and a 10-50% reduction in reproduction. ∑PCB contamination from 1950 up to 1987 was found to be too high to allow the return of white-tailed eagle as a breeding species in that period. ∑PCB and population trends simulated for 2006-2050 suggest that future population growth is still reduced. Disturbance stress resulted in a reduced population development. The combination of both toxic and disturbance stress varied from a slower population development to a catastrophical reduction in population size, where the main cause was attributed to the reduction in reproduction of 50%. Application of the model was restricted by the current lack of quantitative dose-response relationships between non-toxic stress and survival and reproduction. Nevertheless, the model provides a first step towards integrating and quantifying the impacts of multiple stressors on white-tailed eagle populations.

  13. [Implementing population-based integrated care for a region: a work-in-progress report on the project "Gesundes Kinzigtal"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Helmut; Schmitt, Gwendolyn; Roth, Monika; Stunder, Brigitte

    2011-01-01

    The regional integrated care model "Gesundes Kinzigtal" pursues the idea of integrated health care with special focus on increasing the health gain of the served population. Physicians (general practitioners) and psychotherapists, physiotherapists, hospitals, nursing services, non-profit associations, fitness centers, and health insurance companies work closely together with a regional management company and its programs on prevention and care coordination and enhancement. The 10 year-project is run by a company that was founded by the physician network "MQNK" and "OptiMedis AG", a corporation with public health background specialising in integrated health care. The aim of this project is to enhance prevention and quality of health care for a whole region in a sustainable way, and to decrease costs of care. The article describes the special funding model of the project, the engagement of patients, and the different health and prevention programmes. The programmes and projects are developed, implemented, and evaluated by multidisciplinary teams. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  14. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  15. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  16. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  17. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  18. Integrated Payment And Delivery Models Offer Opportunities And Challenges For Residential Care Facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, David C; Caudry, Daryl J; Dean, Katie M; Stevenson, David G

    2015-10-01

    Under health care reform, new financing and delivery models are being piloted to integrate health and long-term care services for older adults. Programs using these models generally have not included residential care facilities. Instead, most of them have focused on long-term care recipients in the community or the nursing home. Our analyses indicate that individuals living in residential care facilities have similarly high rates of chronic illness and Medicare utilization when compared with matched individuals in the community and nursing home, and rates of functional dependency that fall between those of their counterparts in the other two settings. These results suggest that the residential care facility population could benefit greatly from models that coordinated health and long-term care services. However, few providers have invested in the infrastructure needed to support integrated delivery models. Challenges to greater care integration include the private-pay basis for residential care facility services, which precludes shared savings from reduced Medicare costs, and residents' preference for living in a home-like, noninstitutional environment. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  19. Integrating modelling and phenotyping approaches to identify and screen complex traits - Illustration for transpiration efficiency in cereals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenu, K; van Oosterom, E J; McLean, G; Deifel, K S; Fletcher, A; Geetika, G; Tirfessa, A; Mace, E S; Jordan, D R; Sulman, R; Hammer, G L

    2018-02-21

    Following advances in genetics, genomics, and phenotyping, trait selection in breeding is limited by our ability to understand interactions within the plants and with their environments, and to target traits of most relevance for the target population of environments. We propose an integrated approach that combines insights from crop modelling, physiology, genetics, and breeding to identify traits valuable for yield gain in the target population of environments, develop relevant high-throughput phenotyping platforms, and identify genetic controls and their values in production environments. This paper uses transpiration efficiency (biomass produced per unit of water used) as an example of a complex trait of interest to illustrate how the approach can guide modelling, phenotyping, and selection in a breeding program. We believe that this approach, by integrating insights from diverse disciplines, can increase the resource use efficiency of breeding programs for improving yield gains in target populations of environments.

  20. Integrated model of insulin and glucose kinetics describing both hepatic glucose and pancreatic insulin regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlandsen, Mogens; Martinussen, Christoffer; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg

    2018-01-01

    AbstractBackground and objectives Modeling of glucose kinetics has to a large extent been based on models with plasma insulin as a known forcing function. Furthermore, population-based statistical methods for parameter estimation in these models have mainly addressed random inter-individual varia......AbstractBackground and objectives Modeling of glucose kinetics has to a large extent been based on models with plasma insulin as a known forcing function. Furthermore, population-based statistical methods for parameter estimation in these models have mainly addressed random inter......-individual variations and not intra-individual variations in the parameters. Here we present an integrated whole-body model of glucose and insulin kinetics which extends the well-known two-compartment glucose minimal model. The population-based estimation technique allow for quantification of both random inter......- and intra-individual variation in selected parameters using simultaneous data series on glucose and insulin. Methods We extend the two-compartment glucose model into a whole-body model for both glucose and insulin using a simple model for the pancreas compartment which includes feedback of glucose on both...

  1. Enabling model customization and integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Minho; Fishwick, Paul A.

    2003-09-01

    Until fairly recently, the idea of dynamic model content and presentation were treated synonymously. For example, if one was to take a data flow network, which captures the dynamics of a target system in terms of the flow of data through nodal operators, then one would often standardize on rectangles and arrows for the model display. The increasing web emphasis on XML, however, suggests that the network model can have its content specified in an XML language, and then the model can be represented in a number of ways depending on the chosen style. We have developed a formal method, based on styles, that permits a model to be specified in XML and presented in 1D (text), 2D, and 3D. This method allows for customization and personalization to exert their benefits beyond e-commerce, to the area of model structures used in computer simulation. This customization leads naturally to solving the bigger problem of model integration - the act of taking models of a scene and integrating them with that scene so that there is only one unified modeling interface. This work focuses mostly on customization, but we address the integration issue in the future work section.

  2. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  3. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  4. A generic individual-based model to simulate morphogenesis, C-N acquisition and population dynamics in contrasting forage legumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louarn, Gaëtan; Faverjon, Lucas

    2018-04-18

    Individual-based models (IBMs) are promising tools to disentangle plant interactions in multi-species grasslands and foster innovative species mixtures. This study describes an IBM dealing with the morphogenesis, growth and C-N acquisition of forage legumes that integrates plastic responses from functional-structural plant models. A generic model was developed to account for herbaceous legume species with contrasting above- and below-ground morphogenetic syndromes and to integrate the responses of plants to light, water and N. Through coupling with a radiative transfer model and a three-dimensional virtual soil, the model allows dynamic resolution of competition for multiple resources at individual plant level within a plant community. The behaviour of the model was assessed on a range of monospecific stands grown along gradients of light, water and N availability. The model proved able to capture the diversity of morphologies encountered among the forage legumes. The main density-dependent features known about even-age plant populations were correctly anticipated. The model predicted (1) the 'reciprocal yield' law relating average plant mass to density, (2) a self-thinning pattern close to that measured for herbaceous species and (3) consistent changes in the size structure of plant populations with time and pedo-climatic conditions. In addition, plastic changes in the partitioning of dry matter, the N acquisition mode and in the architecture of shoots and roots emerged from the integration of plant responses to their local environment. This resulted in taller plants and thinner roots when competition was dominated by light, and shorter plants with relatively more developed root systems when competition was dominated by soil resources. A population dynamic model considering growth and morphogenesis responses to multiple resources heterogeneously distributed in the environment was presented. It should allow scaling plant-plant interactions from individual to

  5. An integrated development environment for PMESII model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pioch, Nicholas J.; Lofdahl, Corey; Sao Pedro, Michael; Krikeles, Basil; Morley, Liam

    2007-04-01

    To foster shared battlespace awareness in Air Operations Centers supporting the Joint Forces Commander and Joint Force Air Component Commander, BAE Systems is developing a Commander's Model Integration and Simulation Toolkit (CMIST), an Integrated Development Environment (IDE) for model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging. CMIST is built on the versatile Eclipse framework, a widely used open development platform comprised of extensible frameworks that enable development of tools for building, deploying, and managing software. CMIST provides two distinct layers: 1) a Commander's IDE for supporting staff to author models spanning the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) taxonomy; integrate multiple native (third-party) models; validate model interfaces and outputs; and debug the integrated models via intuitive controls and time series visualization, and 2) a PMESII IDE for modeling and simulation developers to rapidly incorporate new native simulation tools and models to make them available for use in the Commander's IDE. The PMESII IDE provides shared ontologies and repositories for world state, modeling concepts, and native tool characterization. CMIST includes extensible libraries for 1) reusable data transforms for semantic alignment of native data with the shared ontology, and 2) interaction patterns to synchronize multiple native simulations with disparate modeling paradigms, such as continuous-time system dynamics, agent-based discrete event simulation, and aggregate solution methods such as Monte Carlo sampling over dynamic Bayesian networks. This paper describes the CMIST system architecture, our technical approach to addressing these semantic alignment and synchronization problems, and initial results from integrating Political-Military-Economic models of post-war Iraq spanning multiple modeling paradigms.

  6. Open source integrated modeling environment Delta Shell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Jagers, B.; van Putten, H.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, integrated modelling has become a very popular topic in environmental modelling since it helps solving problems, which is difficult to model using a single model. However, managing complexity of integrated models and minimizing time required for their setup remains a challenging task. The integrated modelling environment Delta Shell simplifies this task. The software components of Delta Shell are easy to reuse separately from each other as well as a part of integrated environment that can run in a command-line or a graphical user interface mode. The most components of the Delta Shell are developed using C# programming language and include libraries used to define, save and visualize various scientific data structures as well as coupled model configurations. Here we present two examples showing how Delta Shell simplifies process of setting up integrated models from the end user and developer perspectives. The first example shows coupling of a rainfall-runoff, a river flow and a run-time control models. The second example shows how coastal morphological database integrates with the coastal morphological model (XBeach) and a custom nourishment designer. Delta Shell is also available as open-source software released under LGPL license and accessible via http://oss.deltares.nl.

  7. An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

    2016-03-01

    Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

  8. Health policy and integrated mental health care in the SADC region: strategic clarification using the Rainbow Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rensburg, André Janse; Fourie, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    Mental illness is a well-known challenge to global development, particularly in low-to-middle income countries. A key health systems response to mental illness is different models of integrated health care, especially popular in the South African Development Community (SADC) region. This complex construct is often not well-defined in health policy, hampering implementation efforts. A key development in this vein has been the Rainbow Model of integrated care, a comprehensive framework and taxonomy of integrated care based on the integrative functions of primary care. The purpose of this study was to explore the nature and strategic forms of integrated mental health care in selected SADC countries, specifically how integrated care is outlined in state-driven policies. Health policies from five SADC countries were analysed using the Rainbow Model as framework. Electronic copies of policy documents were transferred into NVivo 10, which aided in the framework analysis on the different types of integrated mental health care promoted in the countries assessed. Several Rainbow Model components were emphasised. Clinical integration strategies (coordination of person-focused care) such as centrality of client needs, case management and continuity were central considerations, while others such as patient education and client satisfaction were largely lacking. Professional integration (inter-professional partnerships) was mentioned in terms of agreements on interdisciplinary collaboration and performance management, while organisational integration (inter-organisational relationships) emerged under the guise of inter-organisational governance, population needs and interest management. Among others, available resources, population management and stakeholder management fed into system integration strategies (horizontally and vertically integrated systems), while functional integration strategies (financial, management and information system functions) included human resource

  9. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  10. Use of models in small mammal population studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

  11. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  12. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  13. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  14. Integrated Debugging of Modelica Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Pop

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The high abstraction level of equation-based object-oriented (EOO languages such as Modelica has the drawback that programming and modeling errors are often hard to find. In this paper we present integrated static and dynamic debugging methods for Modelica models and a debugger prototype that addresses several of those problems. The goal is an integrated debugging framework that combines classical debugging techniques with special techniques for equation-based languages partly based on graph visualization and interaction. To our knowledge, this is the first Modelica debugger that supports both equation-based transformational and algorithmic code debugging in an integrated fashion.

  15. EFEKTIVITAS DAN EFISIENSI MODEL PEMBELAJARAN IPA TERPADU TIPE INTEGRATED DALAM PEMBELAJARAN TEMA CAHAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    - Muqoyyanah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian eksperimen ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui efektivitas dan efisiensi model pembelajaran terpadu yang memang sudahdianjurkan pemerintah untuk diterapkan dalam Kurikulum Tingkat Satuan Pendidikan (KTSP. Pembelajaran IPA terpadu tipeintegrated dipilih dengan menggabungkan materi dari tiga mata pelajaran, yaitu fisika, biologi, dan geografi dalam satu tema yaitucahaya. Populasi adalah kelas VIII semester 2 yang berjumlah 5 kelas. Pengambilan sampel dengan teknik random sampling.Hasilpenelitian menunjukkan bahwa hasil belajar kelompok kontrol lebih baik daripada kelompok eksperimen tetapi rata-rata nilai keduakelompok sudah melebihi Standar Ketuntasan Belajar Minimal (SKBM sekolah, yaitu 70. Ketuntasan klasikal kedua kelompokjuga sudah dicapai, bahkan ketuntasannya lebih dari 90%. Efektivitas model pembelajaran IPA terpadu tipe integrated tidakberbeda secara signifikan dengan model pembelajaran IPA terpisah tetapi lebih efisien dalam waktu pembelajaran. Jadi, modelpembelajaran terpadu layak diterapkan dalam pembelajaran dengan beberapa pembenahan. This experiment research aimed to find effectiveness and efficiency of integrated science learning model which is suggested by thegovernment to be applied in Kurikulum Tingkat Satuan Pendidikan (KTSP. The learning of integrated science was chosen bycombining the materials of three subjects: physics, biology and geography in a theme, which is light. The population of the researchwas the VIII grade second semester student consisting of five classes and sampling technique used was random sampling. Theresult of the research showed that learning achievement of control group was better than that of experiment group, but the averagevalue of both groups was more than minimal learning achievement standard of the school which was 70. Classical learning-masteryof both groups which was 90% has also been reached. Although the effectiveness of integrated science learning model was notdifferent significantly

  16. Population-averaged macaque brain atlas with high-resolution ex vivo DTI integrated into in vivo space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Lei; Jeon, Tina; Yu, Qiaowen; Ouyang, Minhui; Peng, Qinmu; Mishra, Virendra; Pletikos, Mihovil; Sestan, Nenad; Miller, Michael I; Mori, Susumu; Hsiao, Steven; Liu, Shuwei; Huang, Hao

    2017-12-01

    Animal models of the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta), the most widely used nonhuman primate, have been irreplaceable in neurobiological studies. However, a population-averaged macaque brain diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) atlas, including comprehensive gray and white matter labeling as well as bony and facial landmarks guiding invasive experimental procedures, is not available. The macaque white matter tract pathways and microstructures have been rarely recorded. Here, we established a population-averaged macaque brain atlas with high-resolution ex vivo DTI integrated into in vivo space incorporating bony and facial landmarks, and delineated microstructures and three-dimensional pathways of major white matter tracts in vivo MRI/DTI and ex vivo (postmortem) DTI of ten rhesus macaque brains were acquired. Single-subject macaque brain DTI template was obtained by transforming the postmortem high-resolution DTI data into in vivo space. Ex vivo DTI of ten macaque brains was then averaged in the in vivo single-subject template space to generate population-averaged macaque brain DTI atlas. The white matter tracts were traced with DTI-based tractography. One hundred and eighteen neural structures including all cortical gyri, white matter tracts and subcortical nuclei, were labeled manually on population-averaged DTI-derived maps. The in vivo microstructural metrics of fractional anisotropy, axial, radial and mean diffusivity of the traced white matter tracts were measured. Population-averaged digital atlas integrated into in vivo space can be used to label the experimental macaque brain automatically. Bony and facial landmarks will be available for guiding invasive procedures. The DTI metric measurements offer unique insights into heterogeneous microstructural profiles of different white matter tracts.

  17. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  18. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  19. Implications of the Vienna Integrated Model of Art Perception for art-based interventions in clinical populations: Comment on "Move me, astonish me... delight my eyes and brain: The Vienna Integrated Model of top-down and bottom-up processes in Art Perception (VIMAP) and corresponding affective, evaluative, and neurophysiological correlates" by Matthew Pelowski et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taruffi, Liila; Koelsch, Stefan

    2017-07-01

    Pelowski et al. present a holistic framework within which the multiple processes underlying art viewing can be systematically organized [1]. The proposed model integrates a broad range of dynamic mechanisms, which can effectively account for empirical as well as humanistic perspectives on art perception. Particularly challenging is the final section of the article, where the authors draw a correspondence between behavioral and cognitive components and brain structures (as well as networks). Here, we comment on the implications of the Vienna Integrated Model of Art Perception for art therapy in clinical populations, particularly focusing on (1) expanding Pelowski et al.'s considerations of the Default Mode Network (DMN) into discussion of its relevance to mental diseases, and (2) elaborating on empathic resonance in aesthetic contexts and the capacity of art to build up empathic skills.

  20. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Jacobs

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1 or with a resting stage (M2, a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5, models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3 or with (M4 inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6. For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h. Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10% and had good imprecision (<30%. However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  1. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  2. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  3. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  4. DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

    2014-05-01

    In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J

  5. Tuberculosis in Sheltered Homeless Population of Rome: An Integrated Model of Recruitment for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Laurenti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors show the results of an integrated model for risk management of tuberculosis in a sample of sheltered homeless in Rome. Tuberculin skin test (TST was used for evaluating the prevalence of latent infection (LTBI. In TST positives, expectorate was collected and chest X-ray was achieved. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate determinants of infection. Out of 288 recruited subjects, 259 returned for the TST reading; 45.56% were positive and referred to a specialized center; 70 accessed the health facility and completed the clinical pathway. The risk factors associated to LTBI were male gender (OR=3.72, age over 60 years (OR=3.59, immigrant status (OR=3.73, and obesity (OR=2.19. This approach, based on an integrated social network, guarantees high adherence to screening (89.93%, allowing patients testing positive for latent tuberculosis infection to be diagnosed and rapidly referred to a specialized center.

  6. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  7. Model integration and the economics of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundgren, S.

    1985-01-01

    The author proposes and applies a specific approach to model integration, i.e. the merger of two or several independently developed models. The approach is intended for integrations of activity analysis sector models and applied general equilibrium models. Model integration makes it possible to extend the range of applicability of applied general equilibrium models by exploiting the information contained in sector models. It also makes it possible to evaluate the validity of the partial equilibrium analyses in which sector models often are employed. The proposed approach is used to integrate a sector model of electricity and heat production with a general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy. Both models have been constructed within the research programme. The author uses the integrated model to look at two issues concerning the role of nuclear power on the Swedish electricity market: What are the likely consequences of a nuclear power discontinuation and how does the nuclear power investment programme of the 1970's and the early 1980's compare with a socially efficient one. (Author)

  8. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

  9. Building trust and diversity in patient-centered oncology clinical trials: An integrated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Thelma C; Kaplan, Charles D; Cook, Elise D; Chilton, Janice A; Lytton, Jay S; Hawk, Ernest T; Jones, Lovell A

    2017-04-01

    Trust is the cornerstone of clinical trial recruitment and retention. Efforts to decrease barriers and increase clinical trial participation among diverse populations have yielded modest results. There is an urgent need to better understand the complex interactions between trust and clinical trial participation. The process of trust-building has been a focus of intense research in the business community. Yet, little has been published about trust in oncology clinical trials or the process of building trust in clinical trials. Both clinical trials and business share common dimensions. Business strategies for building trust may be transferable to the clinical trial setting. This study was conducted to understand and utilize contemporary thinking about building trust to develop an Integrated Model of Trust that incorporates both clinical and business perspectives. A key word-directed literature search of the PubMed, Medline, Cochrane, and Google Search databases for entries dated between 1 January 1985 and 1 September 2015 was conducted to obtain information from which to develop an Integrated Model of Trust. Successful trial participation requires both participants and clinical trial team members to build distinctly different types of interpersonal trust to effect recruitment and retention. They are built under conditions of significant emotional stress and time constraints among people who do not know each other and have never worked together before. Swift Trust and Traditional Trust are sequentially built during the clinical trial process. Swift trust operates during the recruitment and very early active treatment phases of the clinical trial process. Traditional trust is built over time and operates during the active treatment and surveillance stages of clinical trials. The Psychological Contract frames the participants' and clinical trial team members' interpersonal trust relationship. The "terms" of interpersonal trust are negotiated through the psychological

  10. Modern model of integrated corporate communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Slijepčević

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present the modern model of integrated corporate communication. Beside this, the authors will describe the changes occurring in the corporate environment and importance of changing the model of corporate communication. This paper also discusses the importance of implementation of the suggested model, the use of new media and effects of these changes on corporations. The approach used in this paper is the literature review. The authors explore the importance of implementation of the suggested model and the new media in corporate communication, both internal and external, addressing all the stakeholders and communication contents. The paper recommends implementation of a modern model of integrated corporate communication as a response to constant development of the new media and generation changes taking place. Practical implications: the modern model of integrated corporate communication can be used as an upgrade of the conventional communication models. This modern model empowers companies to sustain and build up the existing relationships with stakeholders, and to find out and create new relationships with stakeholders who were previously inaccessible and invisible.

  11. Integrating common and rare genetic variation in diverse human populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; Peltonen, Leena; Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; Peltonen, Leena; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Schaffner, Stephen F; Yu, Fuli; Peltonen, Leena; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Bonnen, Penelope E; Altshuler, David M; Gibbs, Richard A; de Bakker, Paul I W; Deloukas, Panos; Gabriel, Stacey B; Gwilliam, Rhian; Hunt, Sarah; Inouye, Michael; Jia, Xiaoming; Palotie, Aarno; Parkin, Melissa; Whittaker, Pamela; Yu, Fuli; Chang, Kyle; Hawes, Alicia; Lewis, Lora R; Ren, Yanru; Wheeler, David; Gibbs, Richard A; Muzny, Donna Marie; Barnes, Chris; Darvishi, Katayoon; Hurles, Matthew; Korn, Joshua M; Kristiansson, Kati; Lee, Charles; McCarrol, Steven A; Nemesh, James; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil; Keinan, Alon; Montgomery, Stephen B; Pollack, Samuela; Price, Alkes L; Soranzo, Nicole; Bonnen, Penelope E; Gibbs, Richard A; Gonzaga-Jauregui, Claudia; Keinan, Alon; Price, Alkes L; Yu, Fuli; Anttila, Verneri; Brodeur, Wendy; Daly, Mark J; Leslie, Stephen; McVean, Gil; Moutsianas, Loukas; Nguyen, Huy; Schaffner, Stephen F; Zhang, Qingrun; Ghori, Mohammed J R; McGinnis, Ralph; McLaren, William; Pollack, Samuela; Price, Alkes L; Schaffner, Stephen F; Takeuchi, Fumihiko; Grossman, Sharon R; Shlyakhter, Ilya; Hostetter, Elizabeth B; Sabeti, Pardis C; Adebamowo, Clement A; Foster, Morris W; Gordon, Deborah R; Licinio, Julio; Manca, Maria Cristina; Marshall, Patricia A; Matsuda, Ichiro; Ngare, Duncan; Wang, Vivian Ota; Reddy, Deepa; Rotimi, Charles N; Royal, Charmaine D; Sharp, Richard R; Zeng, Changqing; Brooks, Lisa D; McEwen, Jean E

    2010-09-02

    Despite great progress in identifying genetic variants that influence human disease, most inherited risk remains unexplained. A more complete understanding requires genome-wide studies that fully examine less common alleles in populations with a wide range of ancestry. To inform the design and interpretation of such studies, we genotyped 1.6 million common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,184 reference individuals from 11 global populations, and sequenced ten 100-kilobase regions in 692 of these individuals. This integrated data set of common and rare alleles, called 'HapMap 3', includes both SNPs and copy number polymorphisms (CNPs). We characterized population-specific differences among low-frequency variants, measured the improvement in imputation accuracy afforded by the larger reference panel, especially in imputing SNPs with a minor allele frequency of populations supports deeper interrogation of genomic variation and its role in human disease, and serves as a step towards a high-resolution map of the landscape of human genetic variation.

  12. Integration of design applications with building models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eastman, C. M.; Jeng, T. S.; Chowdbury, R.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews various issues in the integration of applications with a building model... (Truncated.)......This paper reviews various issues in the integration of applications with a building model... (Truncated.)...

  13. A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorson, James T; Ono, Kotaro; Munch, Stephan B

    2014-02-01

    State-space estimation methods are increasingly used in ecology to estimate productivity and abundance of natural populations while accounting for variability in both population dynamics and measurement processes. However, functional forms for population dynamics and density dependence often will not match the true biological process, and this may degrade the performance of state-space methods. We therefore developed a Bayesian semiparametric state-space model, which uses a Gaussian process (GP) to approximate the population growth function. This offers two benefits for population modeling. First, it allows data to update a specified "prior" on the population growth function, while reverting to this prior when data are uninformative. Second, it allows variability in population dynamics to be decomposed into random errors around the population growth function ("process error") and errors due to the mismatch between the specified prior and estimated growth function ("model error"). We used simulation modeling to illustrate the utility of GP methods in state-space population dynamics models. Results confirmed that the GP model performs similarly to a conventional state-space model when either (1) the prior matches the true process or (2) data are relatively uninformative. However, GP methods improve estimates of the population growth function when the function is misspecified. Results also demonstrated that the estimated magnitude of "model error" can be used to distinguish cases of model misspecification. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for GP methods in other state-space models, including age and length-structured, meta-analytic, and individual-movement models.

  14. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  15. Model-integrating software components engineering flexible software systems

    CERN Document Server

    Derakhshanmanesh, Mahdi

    2015-01-01

    In his study, Mahdi Derakhshanmanesh builds on the state of the art in modeling by proposing to integrate models into running software on the component-level without translating them to code. Such so-called model-integrating software exploits all advantages of models: models implicitly support a good separation of concerns, they are self-documenting and thus improve understandability and maintainability and in contrast to model-driven approaches there is no synchronization problem anymore between the models and the code generated from them. Using model-integrating components, software will be

  16. Geography, the Integrating Discipline: Explaining China's Population-Driven Geopolitics to Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchat, Clarence J.

    2008-01-01

    This article demonstrates geography's role as an integrative discipline and its utility in connecting students to the world around them. A case study links China's demography and its geopolitics to the lives of U.S. students. The relationship of China's population pressures to its resulting economic growth, need for economic resources, and…

  17. The next generation of galaxy evolution models: A symbiosis of stellar populations and chemical abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotulla, Ralf

    2012-10-01

    Over its lifespan Hubble has invested significant effort into detailed observations of galaxies both in the local and distant universe. To extract the physical information from the observed {spectro-}photometry requires detailed and accurate models. Stellar population synthesis models are frequently used to obtain stellar masses, star formation rate, galaxy ages and star formation histories. Chemical evolution models offer another valuable and complementary approach to gain insight into many of the same aspects, yet these two methods have rarely been used in combination.Our proposed next generation of galaxy evolution models will help us improve our understanding of how galaxies form and evolve. Building on GALEV evolutionary synthesis models we incorporate state-of-the-art input physics for stellar evolution of binaries and rotating stars as well as new spectral libraries well matched to the modern observational capabilities. Our improved chemical evolution model allows us to self-consistently trace abundances of individual elements, fully accounting for the increasing initial abundances of successive stellar generations. GALEV will support variable Initial Mass Functions {IMF}, enabling us to test recent observational findings of a non-universal IMF by predicting chemical properties and integrated spectra in an integrated and consistent manner.HST is the perfect instrument for testing this approach. Its wide wavelength coverage from UV to NIR enables precise SED fitting, and with its spatial resolution we can compare the inferred chemical evolution to studies of star clusters and resolved stellar populations in nearby galaxies.

  18. Integrating Traditional and Evolutionary Knowledge in Biodiversity Conservation: a Population Level Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan J. Fraser

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite their dual importance in the assessment of endangered/threatened species, there have been few attempts to integrate traditional ecological knowledge (TEK and evolutionary biology knowledge (EBK at the population level. We contrasted long-term aboriginal TEK with previously obtained EBK in the context of seasonal migratory habits and population biology of a salmonid fish, brook charr, (Salvelinus fontinalis inhabiting a large, remote postglacial lake. Compilation of TEK spanning four decades involved analytical workshops, semidirective interviews, and collaborative fieldwork with local aboriginal informants and fishing guides. We found that TEK complemented EBK of brook charr by providing concordant and additional information about (1 population viability; (2 breeding areas and migration patterns of divergent populations; and (3 the behavioral ecology of populations within feeding areas; all of which may ultimately affect the maintenance of population diversity. Aboriginal concerns related to human pressures on this species, not revealed by EBK, also help to focus future conservation initiatives for divergent populations and to encourage restoration of traditional fishing practices. However, relative to EBK, the relevance of TEK to salmonid biodiversity conservation was evident mainly at a smaller spatial scale, for example, that of individual rivers occupied by populations or certain lake sectors. Nevertheless, EBK was only collected over a 4-yr period, so TEK provided an essential long-term temporal window to evaluate population differences and persistence. We concluded that, despite different conceptual underpinnings, spatially and temporally varying TEK and EBK both contribute to the knowledge base required to achieve sustainability and effective biodiversity conservation planning for a given species. Such integration may be particularly relevant in many isolated regions, where intraspecific diversity can go unrecognized due to sparse

  19. Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

    1993-01-01

    Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

  20. Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-10-11

    The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

  1. Integrable models in classical and quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurco, B.

    1991-01-01

    Integrable systems are investigated, especially the rational and trigonometric Gaudin models. The Gaudin models are diagonalized for the case of classical Lie algebras. Their relation to the other integrable models and to the quantum inverse scattering method is investigated. Applications in quantum optics and plasma physics are discussed. (author). 94 refs

  2. Construction and analysis of a giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) population projection model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Jonathan P.; Ersan, Julia S. M.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Halstead, Brian J.

    2018-03-19

    The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species precinctive to California. The range of the giant gartersnake has contracted in the last century because its wetland habitat has been drained for agriculture and development. As a result of this habitat alteration, giant gartersnakes now largely persist in and near rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, because the system of canals that conveys water for rice growing approximates historical wetland habitat. Many aspects of the demography of giant gartersnakes are unknown, including how individuals grow throughout their life, how size influences reproduction, and how survival varies over time and among populations. We studied giant gartersnakes throughout the Sacramento Valley of California from 1995 to 2016 using capture-mark-recapture to study the growth, reproduction, and survival of this threatened species. We then use these data to construct an Integral Projection Model, and analyze this demographic model to understand which vital rates contribute most to the growth rate of giant gartersnake populations. We find that giant gartersnakes exhibit indeterminate growth; growth slows as individuals’ age. Fecundity, probability of reproduction, and survival all increase with size, although survival may decline for the largest female giant gartersnakes. The population growth rate of giant gartersnakes is most influenced by the survival and growth of large adult females, and the size at which 1 year old recruits enter the population. Our results indicate that management actions benefitting these influential demographic parameters will have the greatest positive effect on giant gartersnake population growth rates, and therefore population persistence. This study informs the conservation and management of giant gartersnakes and their habitat, and illustrates the effectiveness of hierarchical Bayesian models for the study of rare and elusive species.

  3. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  4. MEASURING INFORMATION INTEGR-ATION MODEL FOR CAD/CMM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A CAD/CMM workpiece modeling system based on IGES file is proposed. The modeling system is implemented by using a new method for labelling the tolerance items of 3D workpiece. The concept-"feature face" is used in the method. First the CAD data of workpiece are extracted and recognized automatically. Then a workpiece model is generated, which is the integration of pure 3D geometry form with its corresponding inspection items. The principle of workpiece modeling is also presented. At last, the experiment results are shown and correctness of the model is certified.

  5. Integrated Site Model Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, T.

    2000-01-01

    The Integrated Site Model (ISM) provides a framework for discussing the geologic features and properties of Yucca Mountain, which is being evaluated as a potential site for a geologic repository for the disposal of nuclear waste. The ISM is important to the evaluation of the site because it provides 3-D portrayals of site geologic, rock property, and mineralogic characteristics and their spatial variabilities. The ISM is not a single discrete model; rather, it is a set of static representations that provide three-dimensional (3-D), computer representations of site geology, selected hydrologic and rock properties, and mineralogic-characteristics data. These representations are manifested in three separate model components of the ISM: the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Rock Properties Model (RPM), and the Mineralogic Model (MM). The GFM provides a representation of the 3-D stratigraphy and geologic structure. Based on the framework provided by the GFM, the RPM and MM provide spatial simulations of the rock and hydrologic properties, and mineralogy, respectively. Functional summaries of the component models and their respective output are provided in Section 1.4. Each of the component models of the ISM considers different specific aspects of the site geologic setting. Each model was developed using unique methodologies and inputs, and the determination of the modeled units for each of the components is dependent on the requirements of that component. Therefore, while the ISM represents the integration of the rock properties and mineralogy into a geologic framework, the discussion of ISM construction and results is most appropriately presented in terms of the three separate components. This Process Model Report (PMR) summarizes the individual component models of the ISM (the GFM, RPM, and MM) and describes how the three components are constructed and combined to form the ISM

  6. Development of a generalized integral jet model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duijm, Nijs Jan; Kessler, A.; Markert, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Integral type models to describe stationary plumes and jets in cross-flows (wind) have been developed since about 1970. These models are widely used for risk analysis, to describe the consequences of many different scenarios. Alternatively, CFD codes are being applied, but computational requireme......Integral type models to describe stationary plumes and jets in cross-flows (wind) have been developed since about 1970. These models are widely used for risk analysis, to describe the consequences of many different scenarios. Alternatively, CFD codes are being applied, but computational...... requirements still limit the number of scenarios that can be dealt with using CFD only. The integral models, however, are not suited to handle transient releases, such as releases from pressurized equipment, where the initially high release rate decreases rapidly with time. Further, on gas ignition, a second...... model is needed to describe the rapid combustion of the flammable part of the plume (flash fire) and a third model has to be applied for the remaining jet fire. The objective of this paper is to describe the first steps of the development of an integral-type model describing the transient development...

  7. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  8. Training model to institutionalize population education in the in-service education programme for elementary school teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugenia, M E

    1982-12-01

    The goal of the Philippine Population Education Program (PEP) since its inception in 1972 is to institutionalize population education in the formal educational system. The PEP Training Section views institutionalization of population education in the inservice education program for elementary school teachers as part of the process of making it an integral part of that program. In practice elementary school teachers periodically attend training programs organized by division or district supervisors and school principals. This is the usual modality through which teachers are updated on or informed about new thrusts and recent developments in teaching content, strategies, and methodologies. In this context, the PEP Training Section convened a seminar workshop in December 1981 for 10 subject area supervisors from the 3 large geographic island groups of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. They represented 10 school divisions and subject areas where population education is integrated. The specific objectives of the 5 day activity were to: discuss existing inservice training programs in the school divisions; prepare a training model incorporating population education in the overall division inservice training program; and develop a content chart or a listing of topical areas on population education for the training model. 1 of the outputs of the seminar workshop was a training model incorporating population education in the regular inservice training programs using 3 delivery schemes, i.e., seminar workship on the teaching of specific subject areas; district staff meeting and/or echo seminars organized by district supervisors following division seminars; and regular teachers' meeting at the school level organized by school principals. Another output was a content chart listing suggested topics in population education classified according to subject areas into which they will be incorporated. The semninar workshop concluded with a plan to try out the model using the identified

  9. Establishing multiple omics baselines for three Southeast Asian populations in the Singapore Integrative Omics Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, Woei-Yuh; Tantoso, Erwin; Begum, Husna; Zhou, Lihan; Zou, Ruiyang; He, Cheng; Chan, Sze Ling; Tan, Linda Wei-Lin; Wong, Lai-Ping; Xu, Wenting; Moong, Don Kyin Nwe; Lim, Yenly; Li, Bowen; Pillai, Nisha Esakimuthu; Peterson, Trevor A; Bielawny, Tomasz; Meikle, Peter J; Mundra, Piyushkumar A; Lim, Wei-Yen; Luo, Ma; Chia, Kee-Seng; Ong, Rick Twee-Hee; Brunham, Liam R; Khor, Chiea-Chuen; Too, Heng Phon; Soong, Richie; Wenk, Markus R; Little, Peter; Teo, Yik-Ying

    2017-09-21

    The Singapore Integrative Omics Study provides valuable insights on establishing population reference measurement in 364 Chinese, Malay, and Indian individuals. These measurements include > 2.5 millions genetic variants, 21,649 transcripts expression, 282 lipid species quantification, and 284 clinical, lifestyle, and dietary variables. This concept paper introduces the depth of the data resource, and investigates the extent of ethnic variation at these omics and non-omics biomarkers. It is evident that there are specific biomarkers in each of these platforms to differentiate between the ethnicities, and intra-population analyses suggest that Chinese and Indians are the most biologically homogeneous and heterogeneous, respectively, of the three groups. Consistent patterns of correlations between lipid species also suggest the possibility of lipid tagging to simplify future lipidomics assays. The Singapore Integrative Omics Study is expected to allow the characterization of intra-omic and inter-omic correlations within and across all three ethnic groups through a systems biology approach.The Singapore Genome Variation projects characterized the genetics of Singapore's Chinese, Malay, and Indian populations. The Singapore Integrative Omics Study introduced here goes further in providing multi-omic measurements in individuals from these populations, including genetic, transcriptome, lipidome, and lifestyle data, and will facilitate the study of common diseases in Asian communities.

  10. Model-Based Integration and Interpretation of Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Johannes

    2004-01-01

    Data integration and interpretation plays a crucial role in supervisory control. The paper defines a set of generic inference steps for the data integration and interpretation process based on a three-layer model of system representations. The three-layer model is used to clarify the combination...... of constraint and object-centered representations of the work domain throwing new light on the basic principles underlying the data integration and interpretation process of Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy as well as other model-based approaches combining constraint and object-centered representations. Based...

  11. Modular Architecture for Integrated Model-Based Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebel, Jan; Schreiber, Erik; Oeser, Alexander; Oeltze-Jafra, Steffen

    2018-01-01

    Model-based decision support systems promise to be a valuable addition to oncological treatments and the implementation of personalized therapies. For the integration and sharing of decision models, the involved systems must be able to communicate with each other. In this paper, we propose a modularized architecture of dedicated systems for the integration of probabilistic decision models into existing hospital environments. These systems interconnect via web services and provide model sharing and processing capabilities for clinical information systems. Along the lines of IHE integration profiles from other disciplines and the meaningful reuse of routinely recorded patient data, our approach aims for the seamless integration of decision models into hospital infrastructure and the physicians' daily work.

  12. Modeling integrated biomass gasification business concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Ted Bilek; Mark A. Dietenberger

    2011-01-01

    Biomass gasification is an approach to producing energy and/or biofuels that could be integrated into existing forest product production facilities, particularly at pulp mills. Existing process heat and power loads tend to favor integration at existing pulp mills. This paper describes a generic modeling system for evaluating integrated biomass gasification business...

  13. Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement N Mweya

    Full Text Available Rift Valley Fever (RVF is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

  14. Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N; Holst, Niels; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

    2014-01-01

    Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics. Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district. Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

  15. Integrated Medical Model – Chest Injury Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) developed the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to forecast the resources...

  16. A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Soderberg, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

  17. Challenges in horizontal model integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolczyk, Katrin; Conradi, Carsten

    2016-03-11

    Systems Biology has motivated dynamic models of important intracellular processes at the pathway level, for example, in signal transduction and cell cycle control. To answer important biomedical questions, however, one has to go beyond the study of isolated pathways towards the joint study of interacting signaling pathways or the joint study of signal transduction and cell cycle control. Thereby the reuse of established models is preferable, as it will generally reduce the modeling effort and increase the acceptance of the combined model in the field. Obtaining a combined model can be challenging, especially if the submodels are large and/or come from different working groups (as is generally the case, when models stored in established repositories are used). To support this task, we describe a semi-automatic workflow based on established software tools. In particular, two frequent challenges are described: identification of the overlap and subsequent (re)parameterization of the integrated model. The reparameterization step is crucial, if the goal is to obtain a model that can reproduce the data explained by the individual models. For demonstration purposes we apply our workflow to integrate two signaling pathways (EGF and NGF) from the BioModels Database.

  18. The Virtual Brain Integrates Computational Modeling and Multimodal Neuroimaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirner, Michael; McIntosh, Anthony R.; Jirsa, Viktor K.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Brain function is thought to emerge from the interactions among neuronal populations. Apart from traditional efforts to reproduce brain dynamics from the micro- to macroscopic scales, complementary approaches develop phenomenological models of lower complexity. Such macroscopic models typically generate only a few selected—ideally functionally relevant—aspects of the brain dynamics. Importantly, they often allow an understanding of the underlying mechanisms beyond computational reproduction. Adding detail to these models will widen their ability to reproduce a broader range of dynamic features of the brain. For instance, such models allow for the exploration of consequences of focal and distributed pathological changes in the system, enabling us to identify and develop approaches to counteract those unfavorable processes. Toward this end, The Virtual Brain (TVB) (www.thevirtualbrain.org), a neuroinformatics platform with a brain simulator that incorporates a range of neuronal models and dynamics at its core, has been developed. This integrated framework allows the model-based simulation, analysis, and inference of neurophysiological mechanisms over several brain scales that underlie the generation of macroscopic neuroimaging signals. In this article, we describe how TVB works, and we present the first proof of concept. PMID:23442172

  19. Gravitational interactions of integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdalla, E.; Abdalla, M.C.B.

    1995-10-01

    We couple non-linear σ-models to Liouville gravity, showing that integrability properties of symmetric space models still hold for the matter sector. Using similar arguments for the fermionic counterpart, namely Gross-Neveu-type models, we verify that such conclusions must also hold for them, as recently suggested. (author). 18 refs

  20. A biologically inspired neural model for visual and proprioceptive integration including sensory training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saidi, Maryam; Towhidkhah, Farzad; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Lari, Abdolaziz Azizi

    2013-12-01

    Humans perceive the surrounding world by integration of information through different sensory modalities. Earlier models of multisensory integration rely mainly on traditional Bayesian and causal Bayesian inferences for single causal (source) and two causal (for two senses such as visual and auditory systems), respectively. In this paper a new recurrent neural model is presented for integration of visual and proprioceptive information. This model is based on population coding which is able to mimic multisensory integration of neural centers in the human brain. The simulation results agree with those achieved by casual Bayesian inference. The model can also simulate the sensory training process of visual and proprioceptive information in human. Training process in multisensory integration is a point with less attention in the literature before. The effect of proprioceptive training on multisensory perception was investigated through a set of experiments in our previous study. The current study, evaluates the effect of both modalities, i.e., visual and proprioceptive training and compares them with each other through a set of new experiments. In these experiments, the subject was asked to move his/her hand in a circle and estimate its position. The experiments were performed on eight subjects with proprioception training and eight subjects with visual training. Results of the experiments show three important points: (1) visual learning rate is significantly more than that of proprioception; (2) means of visual and proprioceptive errors are decreased by training but statistical analysis shows that this decrement is significant for proprioceptive error and non-significant for visual error, and (3) visual errors in training phase even in the beginning of it, is much less than errors of the main test stage because in the main test, the subject has to focus on two senses. The results of the experiments in this paper is in agreement with the results of the neural model

  1. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  2. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-01-01

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

  3. A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

  4. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  5. Renewed mer model of integral management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janko Belak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The research work on entrepreneurship, enterprise's policy and management, which started in 1992, successfully continued in the following years. Between 1992 and 2011, more than 400 academics and other researchers have participated in research work (MER research program whose main orientation has been the creation of their own model of integral management. Results: In past years, academics (researchers and authors of published papers from Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Byelorussia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the US have cooperated in MER programs, coming from more than fifty institutions. Thus, scientific doctrines of different universities influenced the development of the MER model which is based on both horizontal and vertical integration of the enterprises' governance and management processes, instruments and institutions into a consistently operating unit. Conclusions: The presented MER model is based on the multi-layer integration of governance and management with an enterprise and its environment, considering the fundamental desires for the enterprises' existence and, thus, their quantitative as well as qualitative changes. The process, instrumental, and institutional integrity of the governance and management is also the initial condition for the implementation of all other integration factors.

  6. Integrated Modelling - the next steps (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. V.

    2010-12-01

    Integrated modelling (IM) has made considerable advances over the past decade but it has not yet been taken up as an operational tool in the way that its proponents had hoped. The reasons why will be discussed in Session U17. This talk will propose topics for a research and development programme and suggest an institutional structure which, together, could overcome the present obstacles. Their combined aim would be first to make IM into an operational tool useable by competent public authorities and commercial companies and, in time, to see it evolve into the modelling equivalent of Google Maps, something accessible and useable by anyone with a PC or an iphone and an internet connection. In a recent study, a number of government agencies, water authorities and utilities applied integrated modelling to operational problems. While the project demonstrated that IM could be used in an operational setting and had benefit, it also highlighted the advances that would be required for its widespread uptake. These were: greatly improving the ease with which models could be a) made linkable, b) linked and c) run; developing a methodology for applying integrated modelling; developing practical options for calibrating and validating linked models; addressing the science issues that arise when models are linked; extending the range of modelling concepts that can be linked; enabling interface standards to pass uncertainty information; making the interface standards platform independent; extending the range of platforms to include those for high performance computing; developing the concept of modelling components as web services; separating simulation code from the model’s GUI, so that all the results from the linked models can be viewed through a single GUI; developing scenario management systems so that that there is an audit trail of the version of each model and dataset used in each linked model run. In addition to the above, there is a need to build a set of integrated

  7. Yunnan-III models for evolutionary population synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Li, L.; Han, Z.; Zhuang, Y.; Kang, X.

    2013-02-01

    We build the Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by using the mesa stellar evolution code, BaSeL stellar spectra library and the initial mass functions (IMFs) of Kroupa and Salpeter, and present colours and integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of solar-metallicity stellar populations (SPs) in the range of 1 Myr to 15 Gyr. The main characteristic of the Yunnan-III EPS models is the usage of a set of self-consistent solar-metallicity stellar evolutionary tracks (the masses of stars are from 0.1 to 100 M⊙). This set of tracks is obtained by using the state-of-the-art mesa code. mesa code can evolve stellar models through thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase for low- and intermediate-mass stars. By comparisons, we confirm that the inclusion of TP-AGB stars makes the V - K, V - J and V - R colours of SPs redder and the infrared flux larger at ages log(t/yr) ≳ 7.6 [the differences reach the maximum at log(t/yr) ˜ 8.6, ˜0.5-0.2 mag for colours, approximately two times for K-band flux]. We also find that the colour-evolution trends of Model with-TPAGB at intermediate and large ages are similar to those from the starburst99 code, which employs the Padova-AGB stellar library, BaSeL spectral library and the Kroupa IMF. At last, we compare the colours with the other EPS models comprising TP-AGB stars (such as CB07, M05, V10 and POPSTAR), and find that the B - V colour agrees with each other but the V-K colour shows a larger discrepancy among these EPS models [˜1 mag when 8 ≲ log(t/yr) ≲ 9]. The stellar evolutionary tracks, isochrones, colours and ISEDs can be obtained on request from the first author or from our website (http://www1.ynao.ac.cn/~zhangfh/). Using the isochrones, you can build your EPS models. Now the format of stellar evolutionary tracks is the same as that in the starburst99 code; you can put them into the starburst99 code and get the SP's results. Moreover, the colours involving other passbands

  8. Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mul, Monique F.; Riel, van Johannes; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; Andre, Geert; George, David R.; Meerburg, Bastiaan G.; Dicke, Marcel; Mourik, van Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W.G.

    2017-01-01

    The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting

  9. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  10. Land development, land use, and urban sprawl in Puerto Rico integrating remote sensing and population census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez

    2007-01-01

    The island of Puerto Rico has both a high population density and a long history of ineffective land use planning. This study integrates geospatial technology and population census data to understand how people use and develop the lands. We define three new regions for Puerto Rico: Urban (16%), Densely Populated Rural (36%), and Sparsely Populated Rural (48%). Eleven...

  11. Data requirements for integrated near field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilems, R.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Faust, C.R.; Brecher, A.

    1981-01-01

    The coupled nature of the various processes in the near field require that integrated models be employed to assess long term performance of the waste package and repository. The nature of the integrated near field models being compiled under the SCEPTER program are discussed. The interfaces between these near field models and far field models are described. Finally, near field data requirements are outlined in sufficient detail to indicate overall programmatic guidance for data gathering activities

  12. Integrated Space Asset Management Database and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Todd; Gagliano, Larry; Percy, Thomas; Mason, Shane

    2015-01-01

    Effective Space Asset Management is one key to addressing the ever-growing issue of space congestion. It is imperative that agencies around the world have access to data regarding the numerous active assets and pieces of space junk currently tracked in orbit around the Earth. At the center of this issues is the effective management of data of many types related to orbiting objects. As the population of tracked objects grows, so too should the data management structure used to catalog technical specifications, orbital information, and metadata related to those populations. Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Asset Management Database (SAM-D) was implemented in order to effectively catalog a broad set of data related to known objects in space by ingesting information from a variety of database and processing that data into useful technical information. Using the universal NORAD number as a unique identifier, the SAM-D processes two-line element data into orbital characteristics and cross-references this technical data with metadata related to functional status, country of ownership, and application category. The SAM-D began as an Excel spreadsheet and was later upgraded to an Access database. While SAM-D performs its task very well, it is limited by its current platform and is not available outside of the local user base. Further, while modeling and simulation can be powerful tools to exploit the information contained in SAM-D, the current system does not allow proper integration options for combining the data with both legacy and new M&S tools. This paper provides a summary of SAM-D development efforts to date and outlines a proposed data management infrastructure that extends SAM-D to support the larger data sets to be generated. A service-oriented architecture model using an information sharing platform named SIMON will allow it to easily expand to incorporate new capabilities, including advanced analytics, M&S tools, fusion techniques and user interface for

  13. An integral projection model with YY-males and application to evaluating grass carp control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Brey, Marybeth; Hansen, Michael J.; Kocovsky, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Invasive fish species disrupt ecosystems and cause economic damage. Several methods have been discussed to control populations of invasive fish including the release of YY-males. YY-males are fish that have 2 male chromosomes compared to a XY-male. When YY-males mate, they only produce male (XY) offspring. This decreases the female proportion of the population and can, in theory, eradicate local populations by biasing the sex-ratio. YY-males have been used as a population control tool for brook trout in montane streams and lakes in Idaho, USA. The YY-male control method has been discussed for grass carp in Lake Erie, North America. We developed and presented an integral projection model for grass carp to model the use of YY-males as a control method for populations in this lake. Using only the YY-male control method, we found that high levels of YY-males would need to be release annually to control the species. Specifically, these levels were the same order of magnitude as the baseline adult population (e.g., 1000 YY-males needed to be released annual for 20 years to control a baseline adult population of 2500 grass carp). These levels may not be reasonable or obtainable for fisheries managers given the impacts of YY-males on aquatic vegetation and other constraints of natural resource management.

  14. PopHR: a knowledge-based platform to support integration, analysis, and visualization of population health data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaban-Nejad, Arash; Lavigne, Maxime; Okhmatovskaia, Anya; Buckeridge, David L

    2017-01-01

    Population health decision makers must consider complex relationships between multiple concepts measured with differential accuracy from heterogeneous data sources. Population health information systems are currently limited in their ability to integrate data and present a coherent portrait of population health. Consequentially, these systems can provide only basic support for decision makers. The Population Health Record (PopHR) is a semantic web application that automates the integration and extraction of massive amounts of heterogeneous data from multiple distributed sources (e.g., administrative data, clinical records, and survey responses) to support the measurement and monitoring of population health and health system performance for a defined population. The design of the PopHR draws on the theories of the determinants of health and evidence-based public health to harmonize and explicitly link information about a population with evidence about the epidemiology and control of chronic diseases. Organizing information in this manner and linking it explicitly to evidence is expected to improve decision making related to the planning, implementation, and evaluation of population health and health system interventions. In this paper, we describe the PopHR platform and discuss the architecture, design, key modules, and its implementation and use. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  15. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  16. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  17. Ontology modeling in physical asset integrity management

    CERN Document Server

    Yacout, Soumaya

    2015-01-01

    This book presents cutting-edge applications of, and up-to-date research on, ontology engineering techniques in the physical asset integrity domain. Though a survey of state-of-the-art theory and methods on ontology engineering, the authors emphasize essential topics including data integration modeling, knowledge representation, and semantic interpretation. The book also reflects novel topics dealing with the advanced problems of physical asset integrity applications such as heterogeneity, data inconsistency, and interoperability existing in design and utilization. With a distinctive focus on applications relevant in heavy industry, Ontology Modeling in Physical Asset Integrity Management is ideal for practicing industrial and mechanical engineers working in the field, as well as researchers and graduate concerned with ontology engineering in physical systems life cycles. This book also: Introduces practicing engineers, research scientists, and graduate students to ontology engineering as a modeling techniqu...

  18. Integrating population genetics and conservation biology in the era of genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouborg, N Joop

    2010-02-23

    As one of the final activities of the ESF-CONGEN Networking programme, a conference entitled 'Integrating Population Genetics and Conservation Biology' was held at Trondheim, Norway, from 23 to 26 May 2009. Conference speakers and poster presenters gave a display of the state-of-the-art developments in the field of conservation genetics. Over the five-year running period of the successful ESF-CONGEN Networking programme, much progress has been made in theoretical approaches, basic research on inbreeding depression and other genetic processes associated with habitat fragmentation and conservation issues, and with applying principles of conservation genetics in the conservation of many species. Future perspectives were also discussed in the conference, and it was concluded that conservation genetics is evolving into conservation genomics, while at the same time basic and applied research on threatened species and populations from a population genetic point of view continues to be emphasized.

  19. Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Eduardo; Elliott, Katie; Snell, Steven; Evans, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The Integrated Main Propulsion System (MPS) Performance Reconstruction process provides the MPS post-flight data files needed for postflight reporting to the project integration management and key customers to verify flight performance. This process/model was used as the baseline for the currently ongoing Space Launch System (SLS) work. The process utilizes several methodologies, including multiple software programs, to model integrated propulsion system performance through space shuttle ascent. It is used to evaluate integrated propulsion systems, including propellant tanks, feed systems, rocket engine, and pressurization systems performance throughout ascent based on flight pressure and temperature data. The latest revision incorporates new methods based on main engine power balance model updates to model higher mixture ratio operation at lower engine power levels.

  20. DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

    or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

  1. Principles of integrated modeling of coal seam mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magda, R

    1983-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of underground coal mining is discussed. Construction of a mathematical model of an underground mine is analyzed. The model is based on integrating the elementary units (modules). A so-called elementary mining field is defined with the example of a longwall face. A model of an elementary coal seam zone is constructed by integrating the elementary mining fields (in time and space) and supplementing them with a suitable model of mine roadway structure. By integrating the elementary coal seam zones a model of mining level is constructed. Such a mathematical model is used for optimizing the selected mining parameters e.g. structure of mine roadways, size of a coal mine, and organizational scheme of underground mining in a mine or in a mine section using the standardized optimization criterion e.g. investment. Use of the integration model of underground mining for optimizing coal mine construction is evaluated. The following elements of investment and operating cost are considered: shaft excavation, shaft equipment, investment in mining sections, ventilation, mine draining etc. 1 reference.

  2. Integrating systems biology models and biomedical ontologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoehndorf, Robert; Dumontier, Michel; Gennari, John H; Wimalaratne, Sarala; de Bono, Bernard; Cook, Daniel L; Gkoutos, Georgios V

    2011-08-11

    Systems biology is an approach to biology that emphasizes the structure and dynamic behavior of biological systems and the interactions that occur within them. To succeed, systems biology crucially depends on the accessibility and integration of data across domains and levels of granularity. Biomedical ontologies were developed to facilitate such an integration of data and are often used to annotate biosimulation models in systems biology. We provide a framework to integrate representations of in silico systems biology with those of in vivo biology as described by biomedical ontologies and demonstrate this framework using the Systems Biology Markup Language. We developed the SBML Harvester software that automatically converts annotated SBML models into OWL and we apply our software to those biosimulation models that are contained in the BioModels Database. We utilize the resulting knowledge base for complex biological queries that can bridge levels of granularity, verify models based on the biological phenomenon they represent and provide a means to establish a basic qualitative layer on which to express the semantics of biosimulation models. We establish an information flow between biomedical ontologies and biosimulation models and we demonstrate that the integration of annotated biosimulation models and biomedical ontologies enables the verification of models as well as expressive queries. Establishing a bi-directional information flow between systems biology and biomedical ontologies has the potential to enable large-scale analyses of biological systems that span levels of granularity from molecules to organisms.

  3. Increasing Employability by Implementing a Work-Integrated Learning Partnership Model in South Africa--A Student Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Susanne; Govender, Cookie M.

    2017-01-01

    In South Africa, 70 per cent of the population is under 35 years old. South Africa has a vision to increase youth employment by focusing on education, training and skills development that will promote employment opportunities. A work-integrated learning (WIL) partnership model was developed to provide students with work experience and to increase…

  4. Population dynamics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae): application of a biophysical model to understand phenological variation in an agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Barton, M G; Conlong, D E; Terblanche, J S

    2017-08-08

    Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

  5. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  6. TESTING STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS WITH SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY COLORS OF M31's GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peacock, Mark B.; Zepf, Stephen E.; Maccarone, Thomas J.; Kundu, Arunav

    2011-01-01

    Accurate stellar population synthesis models are vital in understanding the properties and formation histories of galaxies. In order to calibrate and test the reliability of these models, they are often compared with observations of star clusters. However, relatively little work has compared these models in the ugriz filters, despite the recent widespread use of this filter set. In this paper, we compare the integrated colors of globular clusters in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with those predicted from commonly used simple stellar population (SSP) models. The colors are based on SDSS observations of M31's clusters and provide the largest population of star clusters with accurate photometry available from the survey. As such, it is a unique sample with which to compare SSP models with SDSS observations. From this work, we identify a significant offset between the SSP models and the clusters' g - r colors, with the models predicting colors which are too red by g - r ∼ 0.1. This finding is consistent with previous observations of luminous red galaxies in the SDSS, which show a similar discrepancy. The identification of this offset in globular clusters suggests that it is very unlikely to be due to a minority population of young stars. The recently updated SSP model of Maraston and Stroembaeck better represents the observed g - r colors. This model is based on the empirical MILES stellar library, rather than theoretical libraries, suggesting an explanation for the g - r discrepancy.

  7. Integration of research and practice to improve public health and healthcare delivery through a collaborative 'Health Integration Team' model - a qualitative investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redwood, Sabi; Brangan, Emer; Leach, Verity; Horwood, Jeremy; Donovan, Jenny L

    2016-06-22

    Economic considerations and the requirement to ensure the quality, safety and integration of research with health and social care provision have given rise to local developments of collaborative organisational forms and strategies to span the translational gaps. One such model - the Health Integration Team (HIT) model in Bristol in the United Kingdom (UK) - brings together National Health Service (NHS) organisations, universities, local authorities, patients and the public to facilitate the systematic application of evidence to promote integration across healthcare pathways. This study aimed to (1) provide empirical evidence documenting the evolution of the model; (2) to identify the social and organisational processes and theory of change underlying healthcare knowledge and practice; and (3) elucidate the key aspects of the HIT model for future development and translation to other localities. Contemporaneous documents were analysed, using procedures associated with Framework Analysis to produce summarised data for descriptive accounts. In-depth interviews were undertaken with key informants and analysed thematically. Comparative methods were applied to further analyse the two data sets. One hundred forty documents were analysed and 10 interviews conducted with individuals in leadership positions in the universities, NHS commissioning and provider organisations involved in the design and implementation of the HIT model. Data coalesced around four overarching themes: 'Whole system' engagement, requiring the active recruitment of all those who have a stake in the area of practice being considered, and 'collaboration' to enable coproduction were identified as 'process' themes. System-level integration and innovation were identified as potential 'outcomes' with far-reaching impacts on population health and service delivery. The HIT model emerged as a particular response to the perceived need for integration of research and practice to improve public health and

  8. Design of an Agent-Based Model to Examine Population-Environment Interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Stephen J; Malanson, George P; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Mucha, Peter J; Heumann, Benjamin W; McDaniel, Philip M; Frizzelle, Brian G; Verdery, Ashton M; Williams, Nathalie; Xiaozheng, Yao; Ding, Deng

    2013-05-01

    The design of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is described that integrates Social and Land Use Modules to examine population-environment interactions in a former agricultural frontier in Northeastern Thailand. The ABM is used to assess household income and wealth derived from agricultural production of lowland, rain-fed paddy rice and upland field crops in Nang Rong District as well as remittances returned to the household from family migrants who are engaged in off-farm employment in urban destinations. The ABM is supported by a longitudinal social survey of nearly 10,000 households, a deep satellite image time-series of land use change trajectories, multi-thematic social and ecological data organized within a GIS, and a suite of software modules that integrate data derived from an agricultural cropping system model (DSSAT - Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer) and a land suitability model (MAXENT - Maximum Entropy), in addition to multi-dimensional demographic survey data of individuals and households. The primary modules of the ABM are the Initialization Module, Migration Module, Assets Module, Land Suitability Module, Crop Yield Module, Fertilizer Module, and the Land Use Change Decision Module. The architecture of the ABM is described relative to module function and connectivity through uni-directional or bi-directional links. In general, the Social Modules simulate changes in human population and social networks, as well as changes in population migration and household assets, whereas the Land Use Modules simulate changes in land use types, land suitability, and crop yields. We emphasize the description of the Land Use Modules - the algorithms and interactions between the modules are described relative to the project goals of assessing household income and wealth relative to shifts in land use patterns, household demographics, population migration, social networks, and agricultural activities that collectively occur within a marginalized environment that

  9. HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC MODELLING INTEGRATED WITH GIS: A STUDY OF THE ACARAÚ RIVER BASIN – CE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuellson Lopes Cabral

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a case study integrating hydrologic models, hydraulic models and a geographic information system (GIS to delineate flooded areas in the medium-sized Acaraú River Basin in Ceará State, Brazil. The computational tools used were HEC-HMS for hydrologic modelling, HEC-RAS for hydraulic modelling and HEC-GeoRAS for the GIS. The results showed that a substantial portion of the riverine populations of the cities of Sobral, Santana do Acaraú and Groairas were affected by floods. Overall, the flood model satisfactorily represents the affected areas and shows the locations with the greatest flooding.

  10. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  11. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  12. Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS). II. Spectro-photometric Evolution of Helium-enhanced Stellar Populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Young-Wook, E-mail: chulchung@yonsei.ac.kr, E-mail: sjyoon0691@yonsei.ac.kr [Center for Galaxy Evolution Research, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-20

    The discovery of multiple stellar populations in Milky Way globular clusters (GCs) has stimulated various follow-up studies on helium-enhanced stellar populations. Here we present the evolutionary population synthesis models for the spectro-photometric evolution of simple stellar populations (SSPs) with varying initial helium abundance ( Y {sub ini}). We show that Y {sub ini} brings about dramatic changes in spectro-photometric properties of SSPs. Like the normal-helium SSPs, the integrated spectro-photometric evolution of helium-enhanced SSPs is also dependent on metallicity and age for a given Y {sub ini}. We discuss the implications and prospects for the helium-enhanced populations in relation to the second-generation populations found in the Milky Way GCs. All of the models are available at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.

  13. Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS). II. Spectro-photometric Evolution of Helium-enhanced Stellar Populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Young-Wook

    2017-01-01

    The discovery of multiple stellar populations in Milky Way globular clusters (GCs) has stimulated various follow-up studies on helium-enhanced stellar populations. Here we present the evolutionary population synthesis models for the spectro-photometric evolution of simple stellar populations (SSPs) with varying initial helium abundance ( Y ini ). We show that Y ini brings about dramatic changes in spectro-photometric properties of SSPs. Like the normal-helium SSPs, the integrated spectro-photometric evolution of helium-enhanced SSPs is also dependent on metallicity and age for a given Y ini . We discuss the implications and prospects for the helium-enhanced populations in relation to the second-generation populations found in the Milky Way GCs. All of the models are available at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.

  14. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  15. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  16. Connected health and integrated care: Toward new models for chronic disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouvarda, Ioanna G; Goulis, Dimitrios G; Lambrinoudaki, Irene; Maglaveras, Nicos

    2015-09-01

    The increasingly aging population in Europe and worldwide brings up the need for the restructuring of healthcare. Technological advancements in electronic health can be a driving force for new health management models, especially in chronic care. In a patient-centered e-health management model, communication and coordination between patient, healthcare professionals in primary care and hospitals can be facilitated, and medical decisions can be made timely and easily communicated. Bringing the right information to the right person at the right time is what connected health aims at, and this may set the basis for the investigation and deployment of the integrated care models. In this framework, an overview of the main technological axes and challenges around connected health technologies in chronic disease management are presented and discussed. A central concept is personal health system for the patient/citizen and three main application areas are identified. The connected health ecosystem is making progress, already shows benefits in (a) new biosensors, (b) data management, (c) data analytics, integration and feedback. Examples are illustrated in each case, while open issues and challenges for further research and development are pinpointed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  18. Libraries as a means for the integration of immigrant populations in Ávila province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Jesús Romera Iruela

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Public libraries can be considered as suitable agents and places for the integration of immigrant population. Therefore, services and programs should be developed in order to give an adequate answer to their needs. This article provides some research findings for the information needs of immigrants at Ávila province. These needs are detected from three different perspectives: public libraries, educational centers, and immigrant associations. The data were collected, using ad-hoc questionnaires, in the districts and municipalities with largest immigrant presence. Several intercultural actions directed to the integration of this population are suggested in this research. Thus, amongst others, the need of a Web site with thematic information on the design of cooperative programs on intercultural education between public libraries and scholar libraries, involving both parents of immigrant students and immigrants associations

  19. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  20. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  1. Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis: A comprehensive and integrative multi-modeling approach to disease prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erraguntla, Madhav; Zapletal, Josef; Lawley, Mark

    2017-12-01

    The impact of infectious disease on human populations is a function of many factors including environmental conditions, vector dynamics, transmission mechanics, social and cultural behaviors, and public policy. A comprehensive framework for disease management must fully connect the complete disease lifecycle, including emergence from reservoir populations, zoonotic vector transmission, and impact on human societies. The Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis is a software environment and conceptual architecture for data integration, situational awareness, visualization, prediction, and intervention assessment. Framework for Infectious Disease Analysis automatically collects biosurveillance data using natural language processing, integrates structured and unstructured data from multiple sources, applies advanced machine learning, and uses multi-modeling for analyzing disease dynamics and testing interventions in complex, heterogeneous populations. In the illustrative case studies, natural language processing from social media, news feeds, and websites was used for information extraction, biosurveillance, and situation awareness. Classification machine learning algorithms (support vector machines, random forests, and boosting) were used for disease predictions.

  2. Model Identification of Integrated ARMA Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadnytska, Tetiana; Braun, Simone; Werner, Joachim

    2008-01-01

    This article evaluates the Smallest Canonical Correlation Method (SCAN) and the Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function (ESACF), automated methods for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model selection commonly available in current versions of SAS for Windows, as identification tools for integrated processes. SCAN and ESACF can…

  3. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  4. A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Moeini

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

  5. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  6. Deconstructing stem cell population heterogeneity: Single-cell analysis and modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jincheng; Tzanakakis, Emmanuel S.

    2014-01-01

    Isogenic stem cell populations display cell-to-cell variations in a multitude of attributes including gene or protein expression, epigenetic state, morphology, proliferation and proclivity for differentiation. The origins of the observed heterogeneity and its roles in the maintenance of pluripotency and the lineage specification of stem cells remain unclear. Addressing pertinent questions will require the employment of single-cell analysis methods as traditional cell biochemical and biomolecular assays yield mostly population-average data. In addition to time-lapse microscopy and flow cytometry, recent advances in single-cell genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic profiling are reviewed. The application of multiple displacement amplification, next generation sequencing, mass cytometry and spectrometry to stem cell systems is expected to provide a wealth of information affording unprecedented levels of multiparametric characterization of cell ensembles under defined conditions promoting pluripotency or commitment. Establishing connections between single-cell analysis information and the observed phenotypes will also require suitable mathematical models. Stem cell self-renewal and differentiation are orchestrated by the coordinated regulation of subcellular, intercellular and niche-wide processes spanning multiple time scales. Here, we discuss different modeling approaches and challenges arising from their application to stem cell populations. Integrating single-cell analysis with computational methods will fill gaps in our knowledge about the functions of heterogeneity in stem cell physiology. This combination will also aid the rational design of efficient differentiation and reprogramming strategies as well as bioprocesses for the production of clinically valuable stem cell derivatives. PMID:24035899

  7. Vertically Integrated Models for Carbon Storage Modeling in Heterogeneous Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical modeling is an essential tool for studying the impacts of geologic carbon storage (GCS). Injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) into deep saline aquifers leads to multi-phase flow (injected CO2 and resident brine), which can be described by a set of three-dimensional governing equations, including mass-balance equation, volumetric flux equations (modified Darcy), and constitutive equations. This is the modeling approach on which commonly used reservoir simulators such as TOUGH2 are based. Due to the large density difference between CO2 and brine, GCS models can often be simplified by assuming buoyant segregation and integrating the three-dimensional governing equations in the vertical direction. The integration leads to a set of two-dimensional equations coupled with reconstruction operators for vertical profiles of saturation and pressure. Vertically-integrated approaches have been shown to give results of comparable quality as three-dimensional reservoir simulators when applied to realistic CO2 injection sites such as the upper sand wedge at the Sleipner site. However, vertically-integrated approaches usually rely on homogeneous properties over the thickness of a geologic layer. Here, we investigate the impact of general (vertical and horizontal) heterogeneity in intrinsic permeability, relative permeability functions, and capillary pressure functions. We consider formations involving complex fluvial deposition environments and compare the performance of vertically-integrated models to full three-dimensional models for a set of hypothetical test cases consisting of high permeability channels (streams) embedded in a low permeability background (floodplains). The domains are randomly generated assuming that stream channels can be represented by sinusoidal waves in the plan-view and by parabolas for the streams' cross-sections. Stream parameters such as width, thickness and wavelength are based on values found at the Ketzin site in Germany. Results from the

  8. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, H A; Hansen, S B

    2009-07-08

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, {Delta}n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  9. Integration of Environmental Issues in a Physics Course: 'Physics by Inquiry' High School Teachers' Integration Models and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimori, David Abiya

    As we approach the second quarter of the twenty-first century, one may predict that the environment will be among the dominant themes in the political and educational discourse. Over the past three decades, particular perspectives regarding the environment have begun to emerge: (i) realization by human beings that we not only live on earth and use its resources at an increasingly high rate but we also actually belong to the earth and the total ecology of all living systems, (ii) there are strong interactions among different components of the large and complex systems that make up our environment, and (iii) the rising human population and its impact on the environment is a great concern (Hughes & Mason, 2014). Studies have revealed that although the students do not have a deep understanding of environmental issues and lack environmental awareness and attitudes necessary for protecting the environment, they have great concern for the environment (Chapman & Sharma, 2001; Fien, Yencken, & Sykes, 2002). However, addressing environmental issues in the classroom and other disciplines has never been an easy job for teachers (Pennock & Bardwell, 1994; Edelson, 2007). Using multiple case studies, this study investigated how three purposefully selected physics teachers teaching a 'Physics by Inquiry' course integrated environmental topics and issues in their classroom. Particularly this study looked at what integration models and practices the three physics teachers employed in integrating environmental topics and issues in their classroom and what challenges the teachers faced while integrating environmental topics in their classrooms. Data collection methods including field notes taken from observations, teachers' interviews and a collection of artifacts and documents were used. The data were coded analyzed and organized into codes and categories guided by Fogarty (1991) models of curriculum integration and Ham and Sewing (1988) four categories of barriers to environmental

  10. Integrated Specialized Early-Course Psychosis Treatment Services - University Psychiatric Hospital Vrapce Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostojić, DraŽenka; Čulo, Ilaria; Silić, Ante; Kos, Suzana; Savić, Aleksandar

    2018-06-01

    First episode of psychosis presents a critical period in terms of numerous associated risks, but also possibilities for effective therapeutic interventions. There is a continued focus on early interventions in prodromal states and early course of frank psychosis, aimed at ensuring faster remission, reducing relapses, achieving better long-term functioning, and preventing adverse outcomes linked to untreated psychosis and chronic psychotic disorders. A number of different specialized treatment models and services exist trying to close knowledge gaps and provide clinical interventions to first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients, but there is still no generally accepted standard of care informing our every-day practice. FEP and early-course psychosis specialized treatment model developed in 2004 in University Psychiatric Hospital Vrapce rests on integration of care across different organization units and clinical presentation acuity levels and patient needs (intensive care, FEP inpatient unit, FEP outpatient services including day hospital). Such integration of FEP services allows for flexible entry point on multiple levels, earlier structuring of therapeutic alliance for those requiring inpatient care, reduction of risks associated with FEP, quicker formation of long-term treatment plans, reduction of delay in accessing specialized services, and a more coordinated diagnostic process and recruitment of FEP patient population. Detailed evaluations of outcomes and comparisons with different treatment models are necessary in order to assess strengths and weaknesses of each specific model and inform modifications to current practice models.

  11. CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenburn, M.W.; Bunting, M.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1997-10-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia`s Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, top-level, modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM`s unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection) and location accuracy of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system`s performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. This report describes version 1.2 of IVSEM.

  12. Consequence Based Design. An approach for integrating computational collaborative models (Integrated Dynamic Models) in the building design phase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negendahl, Kristoffer

    relies on various advancements in the area of integrated dynamic models. It also relies on the application and test of the approach in practice to evaluate the Consequence based design and the use of integrated dynamic models. As a result, the Consequence based design approach has been applied in five...... and define new ways to implement integrated dynamic models for the following project. In parallel, seven different developments of new methods, tools and algorithms have been performed to support the application of the approach. The developments concern: Decision diagrams – to clarify goals and the ability...... affect the design process and collaboration between building designers and simulationists. Within the limits of applying the approach of Consequence based design to five case studies, followed by documentation based on interviews, surveys and project related documentations derived from internal reports...

  13. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  14. Towards an Integrative Model of Knowledge Transfer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turcan, Romeo V.; Heslop, Ben

    This paper aims to contribute towards the advancement of an efficient architecture of a single market for knowledge through the development of an integrative model of knowledge transfer. Within this aim, several points of departure can be singled out. One, the article builds on the call of the Eu......This paper aims to contribute towards the advancement of an efficient architecture of a single market for knowledge through the development of an integrative model of knowledge transfer. Within this aim, several points of departure can be singled out. One, the article builds on the call...... business and academia, and implementing the respective legislature are enduring. The research objectives were to explore (i) the process of knowledge transfer in universities, including the nature of tensions, obstacles and incentives, (ii) the relationships between key stakeholders in the KT market...... of the emergent integrative model of knowledge transfer. In an attempt to bring it to a higher level of generalizability, the integrative model of KT is further conceptualized from a ‘sociology of markets’ perspective resulting in an emergent architecture of a single market for knowledge. Future research...

  15. Model reduction in integrated controls-structures design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghami, Peiman G.

    1993-01-01

    It is the objective of this paper to present a model reduction technique developed for the integrated controls-structures design of flexible structures. Integrated controls-structures design problems are typically posed as nonlinear mathematical programming problems, where the design variables consist of both structural and control parameters. In the solution process, both structural and control design variables are constantly changing; therefore, the dynamic characteristics of the structure are also changing. This presents a problem in obtaining a reduced-order model for active control design and analysis which will be valid for all design points within the design space. In other words, the frequency and number of the significant modes of the structure (modes that should be included) may vary considerably throughout the design process. This is also true as the locations and/or masses of the sensors and actuators change. Moreover, since the number of design evaluations in the integrated design process could easily run into thousands, any feasible order-reduction method should not require model reduction analysis at every design iteration. In this paper a novel and efficient technique for model reduction in the integrated controls-structures design process, which addresses these issues, is presented.

  16. Developing an integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model for assessing water quality in a Yangtze Estuary Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cong; Zhang, Jingjie; Bi, Xiaowei; Xu, Zheng; He, Yiliang; Gin, Karina Yew-Hoong

    2017-12-01

    An integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model was developed for better understanding of the fate and transport of emerging contaminants in Qingcaosha Reservoir. The reservoir, which supplies drinking water for nearly half of Shanghai's population, is located in Yangtze Delta. The integrated model was built by Delft3D suite, a fully integrated multidimensional modeling software. Atrazine and Bisphenol A (BPA) were selected as two representative emerging contaminants for the study in this reservoir. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated against observations from 2011 to 2015 while the integrated model was calibrated against observations from 2014 to 2015 and then applied to explore the potential risk of high atrazine concentrations in the reservoir driven by agriculture activities. Our results show that the model is capable of describing the spatial and temporal patterns of water temperature, salinity and the dynamic distributions of two representative emerging contaminants (i.e. atrazine and BPA) in the reservoir. The physical and biodegradation processes in this study were found to play a crucial role in determining the fate and transport of atrazine and BPA in the reservoir. The model also provides an insight into the potential risk of emerging contaminants and possible mitigation thresholds. The integrated approach can be a very useful tool to support policy-makers in the future management of Qingcaosha Reservoir. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Integrated environmental modeling system for noble gas releases at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, R.E.

    1973-01-01

    The Savannah River Plant (SRP) is a large nuclear complex engaged in varied activities and is the AEC's major site for the production of weapons material. As a result of these activities, there are continuous and intermittent releases of radioactive gases to the atmosphere. Of these releases, the noble gases constitute about 11 percent of the total man-rem exposure to the population out to a distance of 100 km. Although SRP has an extensive radiological monitoring program, an environmental modeling system is necessary for adequately estimating effects on the environment. The integrated environmental modeling system in use at SRP consists of a series of computer programs that generate and use a library of environmental effects data as a function of azimuth and distance. Annual average atmospheric dispersion and azimuthal distribution of material assumed to be released as unit sources is estimated from a 2-year meteorological data base--assuming an arbitrary point of origin. The basic library of data consists of: ground-level concentrations according to isotope, and whole body gamma dose calculations that account for the total spatial distribution at discrete energy levels. These data are normalized to tritium measurements, and are subsequently used to generate similar library data that pertain to specific source locations, but always with respect to the same population grid. Thus, the total additive effects from all source points, both on- and off-site, can be estimated. The final program uses the library data to estimate population exposures for specified releases and source points for the nuclides of interest (including noble gases). Multiple source points are considered within a single pass to obtain the integrated effects from all sources

  18. Lotus Base: An integrated information portal for the model legume Lotus japonicus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mun, Terry; Bachmann, Asger; Gupta, Vikas; Stougaard, Jens; Andersen, Stig U

    2016-12-23

    Lotus japonicus is a well-characterized model legume widely used in the study of plant-microbe interactions. However, datasets from various Lotus studies are poorly integrated and lack interoperability. We recognize the need for a comprehensive repository that allows comprehensive and dynamic exploration of Lotus genomic and transcriptomic data. Equally important are user-friendly in-browser tools designed for data visualization and interpretation. Here, we present Lotus Base, which opens to the research community a large, established LORE1 insertion mutant population containing an excess of 120,000 lines, and serves the end-user tightly integrated data from Lotus, such as the reference genome, annotated proteins, and expression profiling data. We report the integration of expression data from the L. japonicus gene expression atlas project, and the development of tools to cluster and export such data, allowing users to construct, visualize, and annotate co-expression gene networks. Lotus Base takes advantage of modern advances in browser technology to deliver powerful data interpretation for biologists. Its modular construction and publicly available application programming interface enable developers to tap into the wealth of integrated Lotus data. Lotus Base is freely accessible at: https://lotus.au.dk.

  19. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnė Beinoraitė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

  20. Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high

  1. Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Faunt, Claudia C.; Lear, Jonathan; Lockwood, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model.

  2. Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Geremia

    Full Text Available Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.

  3. Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

    2016-12-01

    Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

  4. Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

  5. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

    2011-01-01

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

  6. A principled dimension-reduction method for the population density approach to modeling networks of neurons with synaptic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ly, Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The population density approach to neural network modeling has been utilized in a variety of contexts. The idea is to group many similar noisy neurons into populations and track the probability density function for each population that encompasses the proportion of neurons with a particular state rather than simulating individual neurons (i.e., Monte Carlo). It is commonly used for both analytic insight and as a time-saving computational tool. The main shortcoming of this method is that when realistic attributes are incorporated in the underlying neuron model, the dimension of the probability density function increases, leading to intractable equations or, at best, computationally intensive simulations. Thus, developing principled dimension-reduction methods is essential for the robustness of these powerful methods. As a more pragmatic tool, it would be of great value for the larger theoretical neuroscience community. For exposition of this method, we consider a single uncoupled population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons receiving external excitatory synaptic input only. We present a dimension-reduction method that reduces a two-dimensional partial differential-integral equation to a computationally efficient one-dimensional system and gives qualitatively accurate results in both the steady-state and nonequilibrium regimes. The method, termed modified mean-field method, is based entirely on the governing equations and not on any auxiliary variables or parameters, and it does not require fine-tuning. The principles of the modified mean-field method have potential applicability to more realistic (i.e., higher-dimensional) neural networks.

  7. Generalization of the event-based Carnevale-Hines integration scheme for integrate-and-fire models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Elburg, R.A.J.; van Ooyen, A.

    2009-01-01

    An event-based integration scheme for an integrate-and-fire neuron model with exponentially decaying excitatory synaptic currents and double exponential inhibitory synaptic currents has been introduced by Carnevale and Hines. However, the integration scheme imposes nonphysiological constraints on

  8. Generalization of the Event-Based Carnevale-Hines Integration Scheme for Integrate-and-Fire Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Elburg, Ronald A. J.; van Ooyen, Arjen

    An event-based integration scheme for an integrate-and-fire neuron model with exponentially decaying excitatory synaptic currents and double exponential inhibitory synaptic currents has been introduced by Carnevale and Hines. However, the integration scheme imposes nonphysiological constraints on

  9. MMM: A toolbox for integrative structure modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeschke, Gunnar

    2018-01-01

    Structural characterization of proteins and their complexes may require integration of restraints from various experimental techniques. MMM (Multiscale Modeling of Macromolecules) is a Matlab-based open-source modeling toolbox for this purpose with a particular emphasis on distance distribution restraints obtained from electron paramagnetic resonance experiments on spin-labelled proteins and nucleic acids and their combination with atomistic structures of domains or whole protomers, small-angle scattering data, secondary structure information, homology information, and elastic network models. MMM does not only integrate various types of restraints, but also various existing modeling tools by providing a common graphical user interface to them. The types of restraints that can support such modeling and the available model types are illustrated by recent application examples. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  10. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EDENBURN, MICHAEL W.; BUNTING, MARCUS; PAYNE, ARTHUR C. JR.; TROST, LAWRENCE C.

    2000-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0

  11. High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenna, Eoghan; Thomson, Murray

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A major new version of CREST’s demand model is presented. • Simulates electrical and thermal domestic demands at high-resolution. • Integrated structure captures appropriate time-coincidence of variables. • Suitable for low-voltage network and urban energy analyses. • Open-source development in Excel VBA freely available for download. - Abstract: This paper describes the extension of CREST’s existing electrical domestic demand model into an integrated thermal–electrical demand model. The principle novelty of the model is its integrated structure such that the timing of thermal and electrical output variables are appropriately correlated. The model has been developed primarily for low-voltage network analysis and the model’s ability to account for demand diversity is of critical importance for this application. The model, however, can also serve as a basis for modelling domestic energy demands within the broader field of urban energy systems analysis. The new model includes the previously published components associated with electrical demand and generation (appliances, lighting, and photovoltaics) and integrates these with an updated occupancy model, a solar thermal collector model, and new thermal models including a low-order building thermal model, domestic hot water consumption, thermostat and timer controls and gas boilers. The paper reviews the state-of-the-art in high-resolution domestic demand modelling, describes the model, and compares its output with three independent validation datasets. The integrated model remains an open-source development in Excel VBA and is freely available to download for users to configure and extend, or to incorporate into other models.

  12. A case study of bats and white-nose syndrome demonstrating how to model population viability with evolutionary effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslo, Brooke; Fefferman, Nina H

    2015-08-01

    Ecological factors generally affect population viability on rapid time scales. Traditional population viability analyses (PVA) therefore focus on alleviating ecological pressures, discounting potential evolutionary impacts on individual phenotypes. Recent studies of evolutionary rescue (ER) focus on cases in which severe, environmentally induced population bottlenecks trigger a rapid evolutionary response that can potentially reverse demographic threats. ER models have focused on shifting genetics and resulting population recovery, but no one has explored how to incorporate those findings into PVA. We integrated ER into PVA to identify the critical decision interval for evolutionary rescue (DIER) under which targeted conservation action should be applied to buffer populations undergoing ER against extinction from stochastic events and to determine the most appropriate vital rate to target to promote population recovery. We applied this model to little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) affected by white-nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease causing massive declines in several North American bat populations. Under the ER scenario, the model predicted that the DIER period for little brown bats was within 11 years of initial WNS emergence, after which they stabilized at a positive growth rate (λ = 1.05). By comparing our model results with population trajectories of multiple infected hibernacula across the WNS range, we concluded that ER is a potential explanation of observed little brown bat population trajectories across multiple hibernacula within the affected range. Our approach provides a tool that can be used by all managers to provide testable hypotheses regarding the occurrence of ER in declining populations, suggest empirical studies to better parameterize the population genetics and conservation-relevant vital rates, and identify the DIER period during which management strategies will be most effective for species conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation

  13. Bayesian Population Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK Approach for a Physiologically Realistic Characterization of Interindividual Variability in Clinically Relevant Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Krauss

    Full Text Available Interindividual variability in anatomical and physiological properties results in significant differences in drug pharmacokinetics. The consideration of such pharmacokinetic variability supports optimal drug efficacy and safety for each single individual, e.g. by identification of individual-specific dosings. One clear objective in clinical drug development is therefore a thorough characterization of the physiological sources of interindividual variability. In this work, we present a Bayesian population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK approach for the mechanistically and physiologically realistic identification of interindividual variability. The consideration of a generic and highly detailed mechanistic PBPK model structure enables the integration of large amounts of prior physiological knowledge, which is then updated with new experimental data in a Bayesian framework. A covariate model integrates known relationships of physiological parameters to age, gender and body height. We further provide a framework for estimation of the a posteriori parameter dependency structure at the population level. The approach is demonstrated considering a cohort of healthy individuals and theophylline as an application example. The variability and co-variability of physiological parameters are specified within the population; respectively. Significant correlations are identified between population parameters and are applied for individual- and population-specific visual predictive checks of the pharmacokinetic behavior, which leads to improved results compared to present population approaches. In the future, the integration of a generic PBPK model into an hierarchical approach allows for extrapolations to other populations or drugs, while the Bayesian paradigm allows for an iterative application of the approach and thereby a continuous updating of physiological knowledge with new data. This will facilitate decision making e.g. from preclinical to

  14. Integrated Control Modeling for Propulsion Systems Using NPSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Khary I.; Felder, James L.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Yu, Albert Y.; Lehmann, William V. A.

    2004-01-01

    The Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), an advanced engineering simulation environment used to design and analyze aircraft engines, has been enhanced by integrating control development tools into it. One of these tools is a generic controller interface that allows NPSS to communicate with control development software environments such as MATLAB and EASY5. The other tool is a linear model generator (LMG) that gives NPSS the ability to generate linear, time-invariant state-space models. Integrating these tools into NPSS enables it to be used for control system development. This paper will discuss the development and integration of these tools into NPSS. In addition, it will show a comparison of transient model results of a generic, dual-spool, military-type engine model that has been implemented in NPSS and Simulink. It will also show the linear model generator s ability to approximate the dynamics of a nonlinear NPSS engine model.

  15. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  16. Integrated materials–structural models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stang, Henrik; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    , repair works and strengthening methods for structures. A very significant part of the infrastructure consists of reinforced concrete structures. Even though reinforced concrete structures typically are very competitive, certain concrete structures suffer from various types of degradation. A framework...... should define a framework in which materials research results eventually should fit in and on the other side the materials research should define needs and capabilities in structural modelling. Integrated materials-structural models of a general nature are almost non-existent in the field of cement based...

  17. Integrating population health into a family medicine clerkship: 7 years of evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unverzagt, Mark; Wallerstein, Nina; Benson, Jeffrey A; Tomedi, Angelo; Palley, Toby B

    2003-01-01

    A population health curriculum using methodologies from community-oriented primary care (COPC) was developed in 1994 as part of a required third-year family medicine clerkship at the University of New Mexico. The curriculum integrates population health/community medicine projects and problem-based tutorials into a community-based, ambulatory clinical experience. By combining a required population health experience with relevant clinical training, student careers have the opportunity to be influenced during the critical third year. Results over a 7-year period describe a three-phase evolution of the curriculum, within the context of changes in medical education and in health care delivery systems in that same period of time. Early evaluation revealed that students viewed the curricular experience as time consuming and peripheral to their training. Later comments on the revised curriculum showed a higher regard for the experience that was described as important for student learning.

  18. Integration of Design and Control through Model Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Russel, Boris Mariboe; Henriksen, Jens Peter; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2002-01-01

    A systematic computer aided analysis of the process model is proposed as a pre-solution step for integration of design and control problems. The process model equations are classified in terms of balance equations, constitutive equations and conditional equations. Analysis of the phenomena models...... (structure selection) issues for the integrated problems are considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....... representing the constitutive equations identify the relationships between the important process and design variables, which help to understand, define and address some of the issues related to integration of design and control. Furthermore, the analysis is able to identify a set of process (control) variables...

  19. Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D.

    2006-01-01

    Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965–2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

  20. Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

  1. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  2. System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.

  3. Integrating Seasonal Oscillations into Basel II Behavioural Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces a new methodology of temporal influence measurement (seasonal oscillations, temporal patterns for behavioural scoring development purposes. The paper shows how significant temporal variables can be recognised and then integrated into the behavioural scoring models in order to improve model performance. Behavioural scoring models are integral parts of the Basel II standard on Internal Ratings-Based Approaches (IRB. The IRB approach much more precisely reflects individual risk bank profile.A solution of the problem of how to analyze and integrate macroeconomic and microeconomic factors represented in time series into behavioural scorecard models will be shown in the paper by using the REF II model.

  4. Which coordinate system for modelling path integration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickerstaff, Robert J; Cheung, Allen

    2010-03-21

    Path integration is a navigation strategy widely observed in nature where an animal maintains a running estimate, called the home vector, of its location during an excursion. Evidence suggests it is both ancient and ubiquitous in nature, and has been studied for over a century. In that time, canonical and neural network models have flourished, based on a wide range of assumptions, justifications and supporting data. Despite the importance of the phenomenon, consensus and unifying principles appear lacking. A fundamental issue is the neural representation of space needed for biological path integration. This paper presents a scheme to classify path integration systems on the basis of the way the home vector records and updates the spatial relationship between the animal and its home location. Four extended classes of coordinate systems are used to unify and review both canonical and neural network models of path integration, from the arthropod and mammalian literature. This scheme demonstrates analytical equivalence between models which may otherwise appear unrelated, and distinguishes between models which may superficially appear similar. A thorough analysis is carried out of the equational forms of important facets of path integration including updating, steering, searching and systematic errors, using each of the four coordinate systems. The type of available directional cue, namely allothetic or idiothetic, is also considered. It is shown that on balance, the class of home vectors which includes the geocentric Cartesian coordinate system, appears to be the most robust for biological systems. A key conclusion is that deducing computational structure from behavioural data alone will be difficult or impossible, at least in the absence of an analysis of random errors. Consequently it is likely that further theoretical insights into path integration will require an in-depth study of the effect of noise on the four classes of home vectors. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd

  5. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

    2005-01-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

  6. Inclusive integral evaluation for mammograms using the hierarchical fuzzy integral (HFI) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Takashi; Yamashita, Kazuya; Arao, Shinichi; Kitayama, Akira; Hayashi, Akiko; Suemori, Shinji; Ohkura, Yasuhiko

    2000-01-01

    Physical factors (physically evaluated values) and psychological factors (fuzzy measurements) of breast x-ray images were comprehensively evaluated by applying breast x-ray images to an extended stratum-type fuzzy integrating model. In addition, x-ray images were evaluated collectively by integrating the quality (sharpness, graininess, and contrast) of x-ray images and three representative shadows (fibrosis, calcification, tumor) in the breast x-ray images. We selected the most appropriate system for radiography of the breast from three kinds of intensifying screens and film systems for evaluation by this method and investigated the relationship between the breast x-ray images and noise equivalent quantum number, which is called the overall physical evaluation method, and between the breast x-ray images and psychological evaluation by a visual system with a stratum-type fuzzy integrating model. We obtained a linear relationship between the breast x-ray image and noise-equivalent quantum number, and linearity between the breast x-ray image and psychological evaluation by the visual system. Therefore, the determination of fuzzy measurement, which is a scale for fuzzy evaluation of psychological factors of the observer, and physically evaluated values with a stratum-type fuzzy integrating model enabled us to make a comprehensive evaluation of x-ray images that included both psychological and physical aspects. (author)

  7. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  8. THE EFFECT OF SECOND-GENERATION POPULATIONS ON THE INTEGRATED COLORS OF METAL-RICH GLOBULAR CLUSTERS IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Chul; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Young-Wook

    2013-01-01

    The mean color of globular clusters (GCs) in early-type galaxies is in general bluer than the integrated color of halo field stars in host galaxies. Metal-rich GCs often appear more associated with field stars than metal-poor GCs, yet show bluer colors than their host galaxy light. Motivated by the discovery of multiple stellar populations in Milky Way GCs, we present a new scenario in which the presence of second-generation (SG) stars in GCs is responsible for the color discrepancy between metal-rich GCs and field stars. The model assumes that the SG populations have an enhanced helium abundance as evidenced by observations, and it gives a good explanation of the bluer optical colors of metal-rich GCs than field stars as well as strong Balmer lines and blue UV colors of metal-rich GCs. Ours may be complementary to the recent scenario suggesting the difference in stellar mass functions (MFs) as an origin for the GC-to-star color offset. A quantitative comparison is given between the SG and MF models.

  9. Shared mental models of integrated care: aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross

    2012-01-01

    Health service organizations and professionals are under increasing pressure to work together to deliver integrated patient care. A common understanding of integration strategies may facilitate the delivery of integrated care across inter-organizational and inter-professional boundaries. This paper aims to build a framework for exploring and potentially aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives of systems integration. The authors draw from the literature on shared mental models, strategic management and change, framing, stakeholder management, and systems theory to develop a new construct, Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC), which consists of three types of mental models, i.e. integration-task, system-role, and integration-belief. The MMIC construct encompasses many of the known barriers and enablers to integrating care while also providing a comprehensive, theory-based framework of psychological factors that may influence inter-organizational and inter-professional relations. While the existing literature on integration focuses on optimizing structures and processes, the MMIC construct emphasizes the convergence and divergence of stakeholders' knowledge and beliefs, and how these underlying cognitions influence interactions (or lack thereof) across the continuum of care. MMIC may help to: explain what differentiates effective from ineffective integration initiatives; determine system readiness to integrate; diagnose integration problems; and develop interventions for enhancing integrative processes and ultimately the delivery of integrated care. Global interest and ongoing challenges in integrating care underline the need for research on the mental models that characterize the behaviors of actors within health systems; the proposed framework offers a starting point for applying a cognitive perspective to health systems integration.

  10. Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

    2017-04-01

    Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

  11. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume III. SPAHR interactive package guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, J.J.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projectons. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, adn thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. This manual outlines the use of the interactive capabilities of SPAHR. SPAHR is an integrated system of computer programs designed for simulating numerous health risk scenarios using the techniques of demographic modeling. This system of computer programs has been designed to be very flexible so as to allow the user to simulate a large variety of scenarios. It provides the user with an integrated package for projecting the impacts on human health of exposure to various hazards, particularly those resulting from the effluents related to energy production

  12. Integration of QSAR models for bioconcentration suitable for REACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gissi, Andrea [Laboratory of Chemistry and Environmental Toxicology, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri”, via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milan (Italy); Dipartimento di Farmacia — Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, via Orabona 4, I-70125 Bari (Italy); Nicolotti, Orazio; Carotti, Angelo; Gadaleta, Domenico [Dipartimento di Farmacia — Scienze del Farmaco, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, via Orabona 4, I-70125 Bari (Italy); Lombardo, Anna [Laboratory of Chemistry and Environmental Toxicology, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri”, via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milan (Italy); Benfenati, Emilio, E-mail: benfenati@marionegri.it [Laboratory of Chemistry and Environmental Toxicology, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche “Mario Negri”, via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milan (Italy)

    2013-07-01

    QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship) models can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce animal test required by REACH. In particular, some endpoints such as bioconcentration factor (BCF) are easier to predict and many useful models have been already developed. In this paper we describe how to integrate two popular BCF models to obtain more reliable predictions. In particular, the herein presented integrated model relies on the predictions of two among the most used BCF models (CAESAR and Meylan), together with the Applicability Domain Index (ADI) provided by the software VEGA. Using a set of simple rules, the integrated model selects the most reliable and conservative predictions and discards possible outliers. In this way, for the prediction of the 851 compounds included in the ANTARES BCF dataset, the integrated model discloses a R{sup 2} (coefficient of determination) of 0.80, a RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 0.61 log units and a sensitivity of 76%, with a considerable improvement in respect to the CAESAR (R{sup 2} = 0.63; RMSE = 0.84 log units; sensitivity 55%) and Meylan (R{sup 2} = 0.66; RMSE = 0.77 log units; sensitivity 65%) without discarding too many predictions (118 out of 851). Importantly, considering solely the compounds within the new integrated ADI, the R{sup 2} increased to 0.92, and the sensitivity to 85%, with a RMSE of 0.44 log units. Finally, the use of properly set safety thresholds applied for monitoring the so called “suspicious” compounds, which are those chemicals predicted in proximity of the border normally accepted to discern non-bioaccumulative from bioaccumulative substances, permitted to obtain an integrated model with sensitivity equal to 100%. - Highlights: • Applying two independent QSAR models for bioconcentration factor increases the prediction. • The concordance of the models is an important component of the integration. • The measurement of the applicability domain improves the

  13. Integration of QSAR models for bioconcentration suitable for REACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gissi, Andrea; Nicolotti, Orazio; Carotti, Angelo; Gadaleta, Domenico; Lombardo, Anna; Benfenati, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    QSAR (Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship) models can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce animal test required by REACH. In particular, some endpoints such as bioconcentration factor (BCF) are easier to predict and many useful models have been already developed. In this paper we describe how to integrate two popular BCF models to obtain more reliable predictions. In particular, the herein presented integrated model relies on the predictions of two among the most used BCF models (CAESAR and Meylan), together with the Applicability Domain Index (ADI) provided by the software VEGA. Using a set of simple rules, the integrated model selects the most reliable and conservative predictions and discards possible outliers. In this way, for the prediction of the 851 compounds included in the ANTARES BCF dataset, the integrated model discloses a R 2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.80, a RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of 0.61 log units and a sensitivity of 76%, with a considerable improvement in respect to the CAESAR (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 0.84 log units; sensitivity 55%) and Meylan (R 2 = 0.66; RMSE = 0.77 log units; sensitivity 65%) without discarding too many predictions (118 out of 851). Importantly, considering solely the compounds within the new integrated ADI, the R 2 increased to 0.92, and the sensitivity to 85%, with a RMSE of 0.44 log units. Finally, the use of properly set safety thresholds applied for monitoring the so called “suspicious” compounds, which are those chemicals predicted in proximity of the border normally accepted to discern non-bioaccumulative from bioaccumulative substances, permitted to obtain an integrated model with sensitivity equal to 100%. - Highlights: • Applying two independent QSAR models for bioconcentration factor increases the prediction. • The concordance of the models is an important component of the integration. • The measurement of the applicability domain improves the prediction. • The use of a

  14. High-Resolution Modelling of Health Impacts from Air Pollution for Denmark using the Integrated Model System EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Hansen, Kaj M.; Hertel, Ole; Im, Ulas; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Geels, Camilla

    2015-04-01

    We have developed an integrated health impact assessment system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution; Brandt et al., 2013a; 2013b), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. The EVA system has previously been used to assess the health impacts based on results from a regional model DEHM (the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model; Brandt et al., 2012). In this study we have used a coupling of two chemistry transport models to calculate the air pollution concentration at different scales; the DEHM model to calculate the air pollution levels with a resolution down to 5.6 km x 5.6 km and the UBM model (Urban Background Model ; Berkowicz, 2000; Brandt et al., 2001) to further calculate the air pollution at 1 km x 1 km resolution for Denmark using results from DEHM as boundary conditions. Both the emission data based on the SPREAD model (Plejdrup and Gyldenkærne, 2011) as well as the population density has been represented in the model system with the same high resolution. The new developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over the years 2006-2014 for Denmark. Furthermore, a sensitivity study of the health impact using coarse and fine resolutions in the model system has been carried out to evaluate the effect of improved description of the geographical population distribution with respect to location of local emissions. References Berkowicz, R., 2000. A Simple Model for Urban Background Pollution. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 65, 1/2, 259-267. Brandt, J., J. H. Christensen, L. M. Frohn, F. Palmgren, R. Berkowicz and Z. Zlatev, 2001: "Operational air pollution forecasts from European to local scale". Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 35, Sup. No. 1, pp. S91-S98, 2001 Brandt

  15. Integrable lattice models and quantum groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleur, H.; Zuber, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    These lectures aim at introducing some basic algebraic concepts on lattice integrable models, in particular quantum groups, and to discuss some connections with knot theory and conformal field theories. The list of contents is: Vertex models and Yang-Baxter equation; Quantum sl(2) algebra and the Yang-Baxter equation; U q sl(2) as a symmetry of statistical mechanical models; Face models; Face models attached to graphs; Yang-Baxter equation, braid group and link polynomials

  16. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  17. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  18. Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

  19. Evolution of flowering strategies in Oenothera glazioviana: an integral projection model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Mark; Rose, Karen E

    2002-07-22

    The timing of reproduction is a key determinant of fitness. Here, we develop parameterized integral projection models of size-related flowering for the monocarpic perennial Oenothera glazioviana and use these to predict the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for flowering. For the most part there is excellent agreement between the model predictions and the results of quantitative field studies. However, the model predicts a much steeper relationship between plant size and the probability of flowering than observed in the field, indicating selection for a 'threshold size' flowering function. Elasticity and sensitivity analysis of population growth rate lambda and net reproductive rate R(0) are used to identify the critical traits that determine fitness and control the ESS for flowering. Using the fitted model we calculate the fitness landscape for invading genotypes and show that this is characterized by a ridge of approximately equal fitness. The implications of these results for the maintenance of genetic variation are discussed.

  20. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  1. MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then

  2. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  3. Integrated modeling: a look back

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Clark

    2015-09-01

    This paper discusses applications and implementation approaches used for integrated modeling of structural systems with optics over the past 30 years. While much of the development work focused on control system design, significant contributions were made in system modeling and computer-aided design (CAD) environments. Early work appended handmade line-of-sight models to traditional finite element models, such as the optical spacecraft concept from the ACOSS program. The IDEAS2 computational environment built in support of Space Station collected a wider variety of existing tools around a parametric database. Later, IMOS supported interferometer and large telescope mission studies at JPL with MATLAB modeling of structural dynamics, thermal analysis, and geometric optics. IMOS's predecessor was a simple FORTRAN command line interpreter for LQG controller design with additional functions that built state-space finite element models. Specialized language systems such as CAESY were formulated and prototyped to provide more complex object-oriented functions suited to control-structure interaction. A more recent example of optical modeling directly in mechanical CAD is used to illustrate possible future directions. While the value of directly posing the optical metric in system dynamics terms is well understood today, the potential payoff is illustrated briefly via project-based examples. It is quite likely that integrated structure thermal optical performance (STOP) modeling could be accomplished in a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) tool set. The work flow could be adopted, for example, by a team developing a small high-performance optical or radio frequency (RF) instrument.

  4. Integrated modelling of two xenobiotic organic compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Gernaey, K.V.; Henze, Mogens

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model that describes the fate and transport of two selected xenobiotic organic compounds (XOCs) in a simplified representation. of an integrated urban wastewater system. A simulation study, where the xenobiotics bisphenol A and pyrene are used as reference...... compounds, is carried out. Sorption and specific biological degradation processes are integrated with standardised water process models to model the fate of both compounds. Simulated mass flows of the two compounds during one dry weather day and one wet weather day are compared for realistic influent flow...... rate and concentration profiles. The wet weather day induces resuspension of stored sediments, which increases the pollutant load on the downstream system. The potential of the model to elucidate important phenomena related to origin and fate of the model compounds is demonstrated....

  5. Submarine groundwater discharge as an integral environmental "currency" limiting population and development within the ecosphere of small islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, Ruth

    Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) from oceanic islands has been estimated to contribute over a third of the global SGD due to orographic precipitation, short aquifer pathways and poorly developed surface drainage. This seepage of groundwater across the sea floor connects land and coastal ocean resources, and is hereby proposed as a parameter to evaluate the interconnections between coastal environmental quality and coastal populations and development. Relatively few islands have been studied, but SGD is typically found to be an important, and often the only, source of nutrients to coastal waters. Freshwater and its pollutant load are delivered to the coastal zone via SGD with consequent impacts on tourism and fisheries thus linking the land-based and marine economic sectors. The characteristics of SGD were investigated on Barbados, Guam and Bimini, islands all of, at least partly, carbonate origin, This study evaluates the similarities and differences between these islands and assesses the applicability of using SGD as a parameter within a population--development--environment model. Model scenarios can be used to explore the integrated coastal impacts of wastewater treatment practices and changes in seasonal rainfall due to climate change. This study also presents novel analytical methods for SGD field data.

  6. Models for integrated pest control and their biological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A

    2008-09-01

    Successful integrated pest management (IPM) control programmes depend on many factors which include host-parasitoid ratios, starting densities, timings of parasitoid releases, dosages and timings of insecticide applications and levels of host-feeding and parasitism. Mathematical models can help us to clarify and predict the effects of such factors on the stability of host-parasitoid systems, which we illustrate here by extending the classical continuous and discrete host-parasitoid models to include an IPM control programme. The results indicate that one of three control methods can maintain the host level below the economic threshold (ET) in relation to different ET levels, initial densities of host and parasitoid populations and host-parasitoid ratios. The effects of host intrinsic growth rate and parasitoid searching efficiency on host mean outbreak period can be calculated numerically from the models presented. The instantaneous pest killing rate of an insecticide application is also estimated from the models. The results imply that the modelling methods described can help in the design of appropriate control strategies and assist management decision-making. The results also indicate that a high initial density of parasitoids (such as in inundative releases) and high parasitoid inter-generational survival rates will lead to more frequent host outbreaks and, therefore, greater economic damage. The biological implications of this counter intuitive result are discussed.

  7. The dynamics of multimodal integration: The averaging diffusion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brandon M; Gao, Juan; Koenig, Scott; Palfy, Dylan; L McClelland, James

    2017-12-01

    We combine extant theories of evidence accumulation and multi-modal integration to develop an integrated framework for modeling multimodal integration as a process that unfolds in real time. Many studies have formulated sensory processing as a dynamic process where noisy samples of evidence are accumulated until a decision is made. However, these studies are often limited to a single sensory modality. Studies of multimodal stimulus integration have focused on how best to combine different sources of information to elicit a judgment. These studies are often limited to a single time point, typically after the integration process has occurred. We address these limitations by combining the two approaches. Experimentally, we present data that allow us to study the time course of evidence accumulation within each of the visual and auditory domains as well as in a bimodal condition. Theoretically, we develop a new Averaging Diffusion Model in which the decision variable is the mean rather than the sum of evidence samples and use it as a base for comparing three alternative models of multimodal integration, allowing us to assess the optimality of this integration. The outcome reveals rich individual differences in multimodal integration: while some subjects' data are consistent with adaptive optimal integration, reweighting sources of evidence as their relative reliability changes during evidence integration, others exhibit patterns inconsistent with optimality.

  8. Scrum integration in stage-gate models for collaborative product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Anita Friis; Slavensky, Andreas; Nguyen, Vivi Thuy

    2013-01-01

    to differentiate from low-cost competitors and increase PD performance, some industrial manufacturers now seek competitive advantage by experimenting with new ways for collaborative PD. This includes integrating customer-focused agile process models, like Scrum, from the software industry into their existing PD...... models. Thus, instead of replacing traditional stage-gate models agile methods are currently integrated in existing PD models generating hybrid solution for collaborative PD. This paper includes a study of three industrial cases that have successfully integrated Scrum into a stage-gate process model...

  9. Advanced tokamak research with integrated modeling in JT-60 Upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, N.

    2010-01-01

    Researches on advanced tokamak (AT) have progressed with integrated modeling in JT-60 Upgrade [N. Oyama et al., Nucl. Fusion 49, 104007 (2009)]. Based on JT-60U experimental analyses and first principle simulations, new models were developed and integrated into core, rotation, edge/pedestal, and scrape-off-layer (SOL)/divertor codes. The integrated models clarified complex and autonomous features in AT. An integrated core model was implemented to take account of an anomalous radial transport of alpha particles caused by Alfven eigenmodes. It showed the reduction in the fusion gain by the anomalous radial transport and further escape of alpha particles. Integrated rotation model showed mechanisms of rotation driven by the magnetic-field-ripple loss of fast ions and the charge separation due to fast-ion drift. An inward pinch model of high-Z impurity due to the atomic process was developed and indicated that the pinch velocity increases with the toroidal rotation. Integrated edge/pedestal model clarified causes of collisionality dependence of energy loss due to the edge localized mode and the enhancement of energy loss by steepening a core pressure gradient just inside the pedestal top. An ideal magnetohydrodynamics stability code was developed to take account of toroidal rotation and clarified a destabilizing effect of rotation on the pedestal. Integrated SOL/divertor model clarified a mechanism of X-point multifaceted asymmetric radiation from edge. A model of the SOL flow driven by core particle orbits which partially enter the SOL was developed by introducing the ion-orbit-induced flow to fluid equations.

  10. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies I: Model Development.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper an integrated modelling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modelling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a

  11. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  12. Research on Multi - Person Parallel Modeling Method Based on Integrated Model Persistent Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, MingCheng; Wu, XiangHu; Tao, YongChao; Liu, Ying

    2018-03-01

    This paper mainly studies the multi-person parallel modeling method based on the integrated model persistence storage. The integrated model refers to a set of MDDT modeling graphics system, which can carry out multi-angle, multi-level and multi-stage description of aerospace general embedded software. Persistent storage refers to converting the data model in memory into a storage model and converting the storage model into a data model in memory, where the data model refers to the object model and the storage model is a binary stream. And multi-person parallel modeling refers to the need for multi-person collaboration, the role of separation, and even real-time remote synchronization modeling.

  13. COGMIR: A computer model for knowledge integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Z.X.

    1988-01-01

    This dissertation explores some aspects of knowledge integration, namely, accumulation of scientific knowledge and performing analogical reasoning on the acquired knowledge. Knowledge to be integrated is conveyed by paragraph-like pieces referred to as documents. By incorporating some results from cognitive science, the Deutsch-Kraft model of information retrieval is extended to a model for knowledge engineering, which integrates acquired knowledge and performs intelligent retrieval. The resulting computer model is termed COGMIR, which stands for a COGnitive Model for Intelligent Retrieval. A scheme, named query invoked memory reorganization, is used in COGMIR for knowledge integration. Unlike some other schemes which realize knowledge integration through subjective understanding by representing new knowledge in terms of existing knowledge, the proposed scheme suggests at storage time only recording the possible connection of knowledge acquired from different documents. The actual binding of the knowledge acquired from different documents is deferred to query time. There is only one way to store knowledge and numerous ways to utilize the knowledge. Each document can be represented as a whole as well as its meaning. In addition, since facts are constructed from the documents, document retrieval and fact retrieval are treated in a unified way. When the requested knowledge is not available, query invoked memory reorganization can generate suggestion based on available knowledge through analogical reasoning. This is done by revising the algorithms developed for document retrieval and fact retrieval, and by incorporating Gentner's structure mapping theory. Analogical reasoning is treated as a natural extension of intelligent retrieval, so that two previously separate research areas are combined. A case study is provided. All the components are implemented as list structures similar to relational data-bases.

  14. Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

    2012-01-01

    This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...... with a major international engineering company....

  15. Combining multimedia models with integrated urban water system models for micropollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Keyser, W.; Gevaert, V.; Verdonck, F.

    2009-01-01

    Integrated urban water system (IUWS) modelling aims at assessing the quality of the surface water receiving the urban emissions through sewage treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and stormwater drainage systems. However, some micropollutants have the tendency to occur in more than one...... environmental medium. In this work, a multimedia fate and transport model (MFTM) is “wrapped around” a dynamic IUWS model for organic micropollutants to enable integrated environmental assessment. The combined model was tested on a hypothetical catchment using two scenarios: a reference scenario...... and a stormwater infiltration pond scenario, as an example of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS). A case for Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was simulated and resulted in a reduced surface water concentration for the latter scenario. However, the model also showed that this was at the expense...

  16. Development of an artificial neural network model integrated with constitutive and FEM models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kong, L.X.; Hodgson, P.D.

    2000-01-01

    Although the standard error of IPANN model developed by Kong and Hodgson is lower than the constitutive model, it is found that the prediction of reaction force and torque during rolling with FEM is less accurate for IPANN model in some deformation regions. It is the summation of the product of the strain and stress in the deformation range, which contributes most to the precise prediction. An ANN model is therefore, developed in this work by integrating both the IPANN and FEM models. It is found that the integrated IPANN and FEM model is the most accurate model. (author)

  17. Conceptual model of integrated apiarian consultancy

    OpenAIRE

    Bodescu, Dan; Stefan, Gavril; Paveliuc Olariu, Codrin; Magdici, Maria

    2010-01-01

    The socio-economic field researches have indicated the necessity of realizing an integrated consultancy service for beekeepers that will supply technical-economic solutions with a practical character for ensuring the lucrativeness and viability of the apiaries. Consequently, an integrated apiarian consultancy model has been built holding the following features: it realizes the diagnosis of the meliferous resources and supplies solutions for its optimal administration; it realizes the technica...

  18. Integrated Exoplanet Modeling with the GSFC Exoplanet Modeling & Analysis Center (EMAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Avi M.; Hostetter, Carl; Pulkkinen, Antti; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn David

    2018-01-01

    Our ability to characterize the atmospheres of extrasolar planets will be revolutionized by JWST, WFIRST and future ground- and space-based telescopes. In preparation, the exoplanet community must develop an integrated suite of tools with which we can comprehensively predict and analyze observations of exoplanets, in order to characterize the planetary environments and ultimately search them for signs of habitability and life.The GSFC Exoplanet Modeling and Analysis Center (EMAC) will be a web-accessible high-performance computing platform with science support for modelers and software developers to host and integrate their scientific software tools, with the goal of leveraging the scientific contributions from the entire exoplanet community to improve our interpretations of future exoplanet discoveries. Our suite of models will include stellar models, models for star-planet interactions, atmospheric models, planet system science models, telescope models, instrument models, and finally models for retrieving signals from observational data. By integrating this suite of models, the community will be able to self-consistently calculate the emergent spectra from the planet whether from emission, scattering, or in transmission, and use these simulations to model the performance of current and new telescopes and their instrumentation.The EMAC infrastructure will not only provide a repository for planetary and exoplanetary community models, modeling tools and intermodal comparisons, but it will include a "run-on-demand" portal with each software tool hosted on a separate virtual machine. The EMAC system will eventually include a means of running or “checking in” new model simulations that are in accordance with the community-derived standards. Additionally, the results of intermodal comparisons will be used to produce open source publications that quantify the model comparisons and provide an overview of community consensus on model uncertainties on the climates of

  19. Supporting frail seniors through a family physician and Home Health integrated care model in Fraser Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace Haeson Park

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: A major effort is underway to integrate primary and community care in Canada's western province of British Columbia and in Fraser Health, its largest health authority. Integrated care is a critical component of Fraser Health's planning, to meet the challenges of caring for a growing, elderly population that is presenting more complex and chronic medical conditions. Description of integrated practice: An integrated care model partners family physicians with community-based home health case managers to support frail elderly patients who live at home. It is resulting in faster response times to patient needs, more informed assessments of a patient's state of health and pro-active identification of emerging patient issues. Early results: The model is intended to improve the quality of patient care and maintain the patients’ health status, to help them live at home confidently and safely, as long as possible. Preliminary pilot data measuring changes in home care services is showing positive trends when it comes to extending the length of a person's survival/tenure in the community (living in their home vs. admitted to residential care or deceased. Conclusion: Fraser Health's case manager–general practitioner partnership model is showing promising results including higher quality, appropriate, coordinated and efficient care; improved patient, caregiver and physician interactions with the system; improved health and prevention of acute care visits by senior adult patients.

  20. Working toward integrated models of alpine plant distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Bradley Z; Randin, Christophe F; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been frequently employed to forecast the response of alpine plants to global changes. Efforts to model alpine plant distribution have thus far been primarily based on a correlative approach, in which ecological processes are implicitly addressed through a statistical relationship between observed species occurrences and environmental predictors. Recent evidence, however, highlights the shortcomings of correlative SDMs, especially in alpine landscapes where plant species tend to be decoupled from atmospheric conditions in micro-topographic habitats and are particularly exposed to geomorphic disturbances. While alpine plants respond to the same limiting factors as plants found at lower elevations, alpine environments impose a particular set of scale-dependent and hierarchical drivers that shape the realized niche of species and that require explicit consideration in a modelling context. Several recent studies in the European Alps have successfully integrated both correlative and process-based elements into distribution models of alpine plants, but for the time being a single integrative modelling framework that includes all key drivers remains elusive. As a first step in working toward a comprehensive integrated model applicable to alpine plant communities, we propose a conceptual framework that structures the primary mechanisms affecting alpine plant distributions. We group processes into four categories, including multi-scalar abiotic drivers, gradient dependent species interactions, dispersal and spatial-temporal plant responses to disturbance. Finally, we propose a methodological framework aimed at developing an integrated model to better predict alpine plant distribution.

  1. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically-friendly ... which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental objectives. ... Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary ...

  2. THE INTEGRATION PROCESS MERCOSUR IN 2007 BY MODEL OF GLOBAL DIMENSION OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Bechlin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to analyze the advance of the regional integration process in the MERCOSUR (Southern Common Market, using a model developed for Professor Mario Ruiz Estrada, of the College of Economy and Administration of the University of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, the GDRI (Global Dimension of Regional Integration Model and that as characteristic has differentiated the use of other variable for analysis, that not specifically of economic origin, derivatives of the evolution of the commerce processes. When inferring and comparing the external performance of the economies that compose the Mercosur, evaluating itself the impacts of the advance of the process of regional and commercial integration, are evidents the inequalities that exist in the block. However, a common evolution is observed, in the direction of intensification of the integration between the economies, mainly after the process of opening lived for the continent, beyond the advance of the integration in the context of the Mercosur, from the decade of 1990. The analyzed data show that, in the generality, these economies are if integrating to the world-wide market, and in parallel, accenting the integration degree enters the members of the block.

  3. Gesundes Kinzigtal Integrated Care: improving population health by a shared health gain approach and a shared savings contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hildebrandt

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Integrated care solutions need supportive financial incentives. In this paper we describe the financial architecture and operative details of the integrated pilot Gesundes Kinzigtal.Description of integrated care case: Located in Southwest Germany, Gesundes Kinzigtal is one of the few population-based integrated care approaches in Germany, organising care across all health service sectors and indications. The system serving around half of the population of the region is run by a regional health management company (Gesundes Kinzigtal GmbH in coope­ration with the physicians' network in the region (MQNK, a German health care management company with a background in medical sociology and health economics (OptiMedis AG and with two statutory health insurers (among them is the biggest health insurer in Southwest Germany: AOK Baden-Württemberg.Discussion and (preliminary conclusion: The shared savings contract between Gesundes Kinzigtal GmbH and the two health insurers, providing financial incentives for managers and health care providers to realize a sub­stantial efficiency gain, could be an appropriate contractual base of Gesundes Kinzigtal's population health gain approach. This approach is based on the assumption that a more effective trans-sector organisation of Germany's health care system and increased investments in well-designed preventive programmes will lead to a reduction in  morbidity, and in particular to a reduced incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases. This, in turn, is to lead to a comparative reduction in health care cost. Although the comparative cost in the Kinzigtal region has been reduced from the onset of Gesundes Kinzigtal Integrated Care, only future research will have to demonstrate whether - and to what extent - cost reduction may be attributed to a real population health gain.

  4. Gesundes Kinzigtal Integrated Care: improving population health by a shared health gain approach and a shared savings contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hildebrandt

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Integrated care solutions need supportive financial incentives. In this paper we describe the financial architecture and operative details of the integrated pilot 'Gesundes Kinzigtal'. Description of integrated care case: Located in Southwest Germany, 'Gesundes Kinzigtal' is one of the few population-based integrated care approaches in Germany, organising care across all health service sectors and indications. The system serving around half of the population of the region is run by a regional health management company (Gesundes Kinzigtal GmbH in coope­ration with the physicians' network in the region (MQNK, a German health care management company with a background in medical sociology and health economics (OptiMedis AG and with two statutory health insurers (among them is the biggest health insurer in Southwest Germany: AOK Baden-Württemberg. Discussion and (preliminary conclusion: The shared savings contract between Gesundes Kinzigtal GmbH and the two health insurers, providing financial incentives for managers and health care providers to realize a sub­stantial efficiency gain, could be an appropriate contractual base of Gesundes Kinzigtal's population health gain approach. This approach is based on the assumption that a more effective trans-sector organisation of Germany's health care system and increased investments in well-designed preventive programmes will lead to a reduction in  morbidity, and in particular to a reduced incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases. This, in turn, is to lead to a comparative reduction in health care cost. Although the comparative cost in the Kinzigtal region has been reduced from the onset of Gesundes Kinzigtal Integrated Care, only future research will have to demonstrate whether - and to what extent - cost reduction may be attributed to a real population health gain.

  5. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  6. Integrated model of destination competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armenski Tanja

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine the weakest point of Serbian destination competitiveness as a tourist destination in comparation with its main competitors. The paper is organized as follows. The short introduction of the previous research on the destination competitiveness is followed by description of the Integrated model of destination competitiveness (Dwyer et al, 2003 that was used as the main reference framework. Section three is devoted to the description of the previous studies on competitiveness of Serbian tourism, while section four outlines the statistical methodology employed in this study and presents and interprets the empirical results. The results showed that Serbia is more competitive in its natural, cultural and created resources than in destination management while, according to the Integrated model, Serbia is less competitive in demand conditions that refer to the image and awareness of the destination itself.

  7. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  8. Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Aamir, Munaf Syed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beyeler, Walter E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fellner, Karen Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeffers, Robert Fredric [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Michael David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silver, Emily [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Villa, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vugrin, Eric D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Engelke, Peter [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Burrow, Mat [Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. (United States); Keith, Bruce [United States Military Academy, West Point, NY (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on

  9. The medical home and integrated behavioral health: advancing the policy agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ader, Jeremy; Stille, Christopher J; Keller, David; Miller, Benjamin F; Barr, Michael S; Perrin, James M

    2015-05-01

    There has been a considerable expansion of the patient-centered medical home model of primary care delivery, in an effort to reduce health care costs and to improve patient experience and population health. To attain these goals, it is essential to integrate behavioral health services into the patient-centered medical home, because behavioral health problems often first present in the primary care setting, and they significantly affect physical health. At the 2013 Patient-Centered Medical Home Research Conference, an expert workgroup convened to determine policy recommendations to promote the integration of primary care and behavioral health. In this article we present these recommendations: Build demonstration projects to test existing approaches of integration, develop interdisciplinary training programs to support members of the integrated care team, implement population-based strategies to improve behavioral health, eliminate behavioral health carve-outs and test innovative payment models, and develop population-based measures to evaluate integration. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  10. Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krisztian Magori

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

  11. Nonlinear integral equations for the sausage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Changrim; Balog, Janos; Ravanini, Francesco

    2017-08-01

    The sausage model, first proposed by Fateev, Onofri, and Zamolodchikov, is a deformation of the O(3) sigma model preserving integrability. The target space is deformed from the sphere to ‘sausage’ shape by a deformation parameter ν. This model is defined by a factorizable S-matrix which is obtained by deforming that of the O(3) sigma model by a parameter λ. Clues for the deformed sigma model are provided by various UV and IR information through the thermodynamic Bethe ansatz (TBA) analysis based on the S-matrix. Application of TBA to the sausage model is, however, limited to the case of 1/λ integer where the coupled integral equations can be truncated to a finite number. In this paper, we propose a finite set of nonlinear integral equations (NLIEs), which are applicable to generic value of λ. Our derivation is based on T-Q relations extracted from the truncated TBA equations. For a consistency check, we compute next-leading order corrections of the vacuum energy and extract the S-matrix information in the IR limit. We also solved the NLIE both analytically and numerically in the UV limit to get the effective central charge and compared with that of the zero-mode dynamics to obtain exact relation between ν and λ. Dedicated to the memory of Petr Petrovich Kulish.

  12. Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstner, Wulfram

    2017-01-01

    Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50–2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations. PMID:28422957

  13. Analysing the Costs of Integrated Care: A Case on Model Selection for Chronic Care Purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Carreras

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study is to investigate whether the algorithm proposed by Manning and Mullahy, a consolidated health economics procedure, can also be used to estimate individual costs for different groups of healthcare services in the context of integrated care. Methods: A cross-sectional study focused on the population of the Baix Empordà (Catalonia-Spain for the year 2012 (N = 92,498 individuals. A set of individual cost models as a function of sex, age and morbidity burden were adjusted and individual healthcare costs were calculated using a retrospective full-costing system. The individual morbidity burden was inferred using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG patient classification system. Results: Depending on the characteristics of the data, and according to the algorithm criteria, the choice of model was a linear model on the log of costs or a generalized linear model with a log link. We checked for goodness of fit, accuracy, linear structure and heteroscedasticity for the models obtained. Conclusion: The proposed algorithm identified a set of suitable cost models for the distinct groups of services integrated care entails. The individual morbidity burden was found to be indispensable when allocating appropriate resources to targeted individuals.

  14. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  15. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  16. An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of

  17. Ontological Analysis of Integrated Process Models: testing hypotheses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Rosemann

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Integrated process modeling is achieving prominence in helping to document and manage business administration and IT processes in organizations. The ARIS framework is a popular example for a framework of integrated process modeling not least because it underlies the 800 or more reference models embedded in the world's most popular ERP package, SAP R/3. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the Bunge-Wand-Weber (BWW representation model for evaluating modeling grammars such as those constituting ARIS. It reports some initial insights gained from pilot testing Green and Rosemann's (2000 evaluative propositions. Even when considering all five views of ARIS, modelers have problems representing business rules, the scope and boundary of systems, and decomposing models. However, even though it is completely ontologically redundant, users still find the function view useful in modeling.

  18. LOCAL POPULATION CHANGE AND VARIATIONS IN RACIAL INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellman, Benjamin; Spielman, Seth E; Franklin, Rachel S

    2018-03-01

    While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil Index, we analyze the fifty most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a novel unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

  19. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  20. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    OpenAIRE

    Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

    2014-01-01

    Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

  1. Modeling integrated cellular machinery using hybrid Petri-Boolean networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Berestovsky

    Full Text Available The behavior and phenotypic changes of cells are governed by a cellular circuitry that represents a set of biochemical reactions. Based on biological functions, this circuitry is divided into three types of networks, each encoding for a major biological process: signal transduction, transcription regulation, and metabolism. This division has generally enabled taming computational complexity dealing with the entire system, allowed for using modeling techniques that are specific to each of the components, and achieved separation of the different time scales at which reactions in each of the three networks occur. Nonetheless, with this division comes loss of information and power needed to elucidate certain cellular phenomena. Within the cell, these three types of networks work in tandem, and each produces signals and/or substances that are used by the others to process information and operate normally. Therefore, computational techniques for modeling integrated cellular machinery are needed. In this work, we propose an integrated hybrid model (IHM that combines Petri nets and Boolean networks to model integrated cellular networks. Coupled with a stochastic simulation mechanism, the model simulates the dynamics of the integrated network, and can be perturbed to generate testable hypotheses. Our model is qualitative and is mostly built upon knowledge from the literature and requires fine-tuning of very few parameters. We validated our model on two systems: the transcriptional regulation of glucose metabolism in human cells, and cellular osmoregulation in S. cerevisiae. The model produced results that are in very good agreement with experimental data, and produces valid hypotheses. The abstract nature of our model and the ease of its construction makes it a very good candidate for modeling integrated networks from qualitative data. The results it produces can guide the practitioner to zoom into components and interconnections and investigate them

  2. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  3. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  4. A recurrent neural model for proto-object based contour integration and figure-ground segregation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Brian; Niebur, Ernst

    2017-12-01

    Visual processing of objects makes use of both feedforward and feedback streams of information. However, the nature of feedback signals is largely unknown, as is the identity of the neuronal populations in lower visual areas that receive them. Here, we develop a recurrent neural model to address these questions in the context of contour integration and figure-ground segregation. A key feature of our model is the use of grouping neurons whose activity represents tentative objects ("proto-objects") based on the integration of local feature information. Grouping neurons receive input from an organized set of local feature neurons, and project modulatory feedback to those same neurons. Additionally, inhibition at both the local feature level and the object representation level biases the interpretation of the visual scene in agreement with principles from Gestalt psychology. Our model explains several sets of neurophysiological results (Zhou et al. Journal of Neuroscience, 20(17), 6594-6611 2000; Qiu et al. Nature Neuroscience, 10(11), 1492-1499 2007; Chen et al. Neuron, 82(3), 682-694 2014), and makes testable predictions about the influence of neuronal feedback and attentional selection on neural responses across different visual areas. Our model also provides a framework for understanding how object-based attention is able to select both objects and the features associated with them.

  5. Modeling livestock population structure: a geospatial database for Ontario swine farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Salah Uddin; O'Sullivan, Terri L; Poljak, Zvonimir; Alsop, Janet; Greer, Amy L

    2018-01-30

    Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Mathematical and simulation models are often used to simulate FAD outbreaks and best practices for control. However, simulation outcomes are sensitive to the population structure used. Within Canada, access to individual swine farm population data with which to parameterize models is a challenge because of privacy concerns. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models. We developed a swine population model based on the factors such as facilities supporting farm infrastructure, land availability, zoning and local regulations, and natural geographic barriers that could affect swine farming in Ontario. Assigned farm locations were equal to the swine farm density described in the 2011 Canadian Census of Agriculture. Farms were then randomly assigned to farm types proportional to the existing swine herd types. We compared the swine population models with a known database of swine farm locations in Ontario and found that the modeled population was representative of farm locations with a high accuracy (AUC: 0.91, Standard deviation: 0.02) suggesting that our algorithm generated a reasonable approximation of farm locations in Ontario. In the absence of a readily accessible dataset providing details of the relative locations of swine farms in Ontario, development of a model livestock population that captures key characteristics of the true population structure while protecting privacy concerns is an important methodological advancement. This methodology will be useful for individuals interested in modeling the spread of pathogens between farms across a landscape and using these models to evaluate disease control strategies.

  6. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  7. Model Driven Integrated Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard H. Weston

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making requirements and solutions are observed in four world class Manufacturing Enterprises (MEs. Observations made focus on deployed methods of complexity handling that facilitate multi-purpose, distributed decision making. Also observed are examples of partially deficient “integrated decision making” which stem from lack of understanding about how ME structural relations enable and/or constrain reachable ME behaviours. To begin to address this deficiency the paper outlines the use of a “reference model of ME decision making” which can inform the structural design of decision making systems in MEs. Also outlined is a “systematic model driven approach to modelling ME systems” which can particularise the reference model in specific case enterprises and thereby can “underpin integrated ME decision making”. Coherent decomposition and representational mechanisms have been incorporated into the model driven approach to systemise complexity handling. The paper also describes in outline an application of the modelling method in a case study ME and explains how its use has improved the integration of previously distinct planning functions. The modelling approach is particularly innovative in respect to the way it structures the coherent creation and experimental re-use of “fit for purpose” discrete event (predictive simulation models at the multiple levels of abstraction.

  8. Modification of the Integrated Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiho Nam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2012, the Korea Institute of Oriental Medicine proposed an objective and comprehensive physical diagnostic model to address quantification problems in the existing Sasang constitutional diagnostic method. However, certain issues have been raised regarding a revision of the proposed diagnostic model. In this paper, we propose various methodological approaches to address the problems of the previous diagnostic model. Firstly, more useful variables are selected in each component. Secondly, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is used to reduce multicollinearity without the modification of explanatory variables. Thirdly, proportions of SC types and age are considered to construct individual diagnostic models and classify the training set and the test set for reflecting the characteristics of the entire dataset. Finally, an integrated model is constructed with explanatory variables of individual diagnosis models. The proposed integrated diagnostic model significantly improves the sensitivities for both the male SY type (36.4% → 62.0% and the female SE type (43.7% → 64.5%, which were areas of limitation of the previous integrated diagnostic model. The ideas of these new algorithms are expected to contribute not only to the scientific development of Sasang constitutional medicine in Korea but also to that of other diagnostic methods for traditional medicine.

  9. An integrative model of organizational safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Lin; Fan, Di; Fu, Gui; Zhu, Cherrie Jiuhua

    2013-06-01

    This study develops an integrative model of safety management based on social cognitive theory and the total safety culture triadic framework. The purpose of the model is to reveal the causal linkages between a hazardous environment, safety climate, and individual safety behaviors. Based on primary survey data from 209 front-line workers in one of the largest state-owned coal mining corporations in China, the model is tested using structural equation modeling techniques. An employee's perception of a hazardous environment is found to have a statistically significant impact on employee safety behaviors through a psychological process mediated by the perception of management commitment to safety and individual beliefs about safety. The integrative model developed here leads to a comprehensive solution that takes into consideration the environmental, organizational and employees' psychological and behavioral aspects of safety management. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A quantum relativistic integrable model as the continuous limit of the six-vertex model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Y.K.

    1992-01-01

    The six-vertex model in two-dimensional statistical mechanics is used to construct the L-matrix of a one-dimensional quantum relativistic integrable model through a continuous limit. This is the first step to extend the method used earlier by the author to construct quantum completely integrable systems from other well-known two-dimensional vertex models. (orig.)

  11. The Gold Coast Integrated Care Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Connor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article outlines the development of the Australian Gold Coast Integrated Care Model based on the elements identified in contemporary research literature as essential for successful integration of care between primary care, and acute hospital services. The objectives of the model are to proactively manage high risk patients with complex and chronic conditions in collaboration with General Practitioners to ultimately reduce presentations to the health service emergency department, improve the capacity of specialist outpatients, and decrease planned and unplanned admission rates. Central to the model is a shared care record which is maintained and accessed by staff in the Coordination Centre. We provide a process map outlining the care protocols from initial assessment to care of the patient presenting for emergency care. The model is being evaluated over a pilot three year proof of concept phase to determine economic and process perspectives. If found to be cost-effective, acceptable to patients and professionals and as good as or better than usual care in terms of outcomes, the strategic intent is to scale the programme beyond the local health service.

  12. Irreducible integrable theories form tensor products of conformal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathur, S.D.; Warner, N.P.

    1991-01-01

    By using Toda field theories we show that there are perturbations of direct products of conformal theories that lead to irreducible integrable field theories. The same affine Toda theory can be truncated to different quantum integrable models for different choices of the charge at infinity and the coupling. The classification of integrable models that can be obtained in this fashion follows the classification of symmetric spaces of type G/H with rank H = rank G. (orig.)

  13. Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

    2018-04-01

    A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

  14. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  15. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  16. Alignment of Product Models and Product State Models - Integration of the Product Lifecycle Phases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Kirkby, Lars Phillip; Vesterager, Johan

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integration of the Product Model (PM) and the Product State Model (PCM). Focus is on information exchange from the PSM to the PM within the manufacturing of a single ship. The paper distinguishes between information and knowledge integration. The paper ...... provides some overall strategies for integrating PM and PSM. The context of this discussion is a development project at Odense Steel Shipyard....

  17. Integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnetic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Jiafeng; Yan Zhaowen; Wang Shikun; Wu Ke; Zhao Weizhong

    2009-01-01

    The Heisenberg supermagnet model is an integrable supersymmetric system and has a close relationship with the strong electron correlated Hubbard model. In this paper, we investigate the integrable higher order deformations of Heisenberg supermagnet models with two different constraints: (i) S 2 =3S-2I for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(U(2)xU(1)) and (ii) S 2 =S for S is an element of USPL(2/1)/S(L(1/1)xU(1)). In terms of the gauge transformation, their corresponding gauge equivalent counterparts are derived.

  18. A Liouville integrable hierarchy, symmetry constraint, new finite-dimensional integrable systems, involutive solution and expanding integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Yepeng; Chen Dengyuan

    2006-01-01

    A new spectral problem and the associated integrable hierarchy of nonlinear evolution equations are presented in this paper. It is shown that the hierarchy is completely integrable in the Liouville sense and possesses bi-Hamiltonian structure. An explicit symmetry constraint is proposed for the Lax pairs and the adjoint Lax pairs of the hierarchy. Moreover, the corresponding Lax pairs and adjoint Lax pairs are nonlinearized into a hierarchy of commutative, new finite-dimensional completely integrable Hamiltonian systems in the Liouville sense. Further, an involutive representation of solution of each equation in the hierarchy is given. Finally, expanding integrable models of the hierarchy are constructed by using a new Loop algebra

  19. Combining Modeling and Monitoring to Produce a New Paradigm of an Integrated Approach to Providing Long-Term Control of Contaminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogwell, T. W.

    2009-12-01

    Sir David King, Chief Science Advisor to the British government and Cambridge University Professor, stated in October 2005, "The scientific community is considerably more capable than it has been in the past to assist governments to avoid and reduce risk to their own populations. Prime ministers and presidents ignore the advice from the science community at the peril of their own populations." Some of these greater capabilities can be found in better monitoring techniques applied to better modeling methods. These modeling methods can be combined with the information derived from monitoring data in order to decrease the risk of population exposure to dangerous substances and to promote efficient control or cleanup of the contaminants. An introduction is presented of the types of problems that exist for long-term control of radionuclides at DOE sites. A breakdown of the distributions at specific sites is given, together with the associated difficulties. A paradigm for remediation showing the integration of monitoring with modeling is presented. It is based on a feedback system that allows for the monitoring to act as principal sensors in a control system. The resulting system can be optimized to improve performance. Optimizing monitoring automatically entails linking the monitoring with modeling. If monitoring designs were required to be more efficient, thus requiring optimization, then the monitoring automatically becomes linked to modeling. Records of decision could be written to accommodate revisions in monitoring as better modeling evolves. Currently the establishment of a very prescriptive monitoring program fails to have a mechanism for improving models and improving control of the contaminants. The technical pieces of the required paradigm are already available; they just need to be implemented and applied to solve the long-term control of the contaminants. An integration of the various parts of the system is presented. Each part is described, and examples are

  20. A Fractionally Integrated Wishart Stochastic Volatility Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThere has recently been growing interest in modeling and estimating alternative continuous time multivariate stochastic volatility models. We propose a continuous time fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility (FIWSV) process. We derive the conditional Laplace transform of

  1. Combining multimedia models with integrated urban water system models for micropollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Keyser, W.; Gevaert, V.; Verdonck, F.

    2010-01-01

    Integrated urban water system (IUWS) modeling aims at assessing the quality of the surface water receiving the urban emissions through sewage treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOS) and stormwater drainage systems However, some micropollutants tend to appear in more than one environmental...... medium (air, water, sediment, soil, groundwater, etc) In this work, a multimedia fate and transport model (MFTM) is "wrapped around" a dynamic IUWS model for organic micropollutants to enable integrated environmental assessment The combined model was tested on a hypothetical catchment using two scenarios...... on the one hand a reference scenario with a combined sewerage system and on the other hand a stormwater infiltration pond scenario, as an example of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) A case for Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was simulated and resulted in reduced surface water concentrations...

  2. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  3. Integrated fuel-cycle models for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.; Maudlin, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    Breeder-reactor fuel-cycle analysis can be divided into four different areas or categories. The first category concerns questions about the spatial variation of the fuel composition for single loading intervals. Questions of the variations in the fuel composition over several cycles represent a second category. Third, there is a need for a determination of the breeding capability of the reactor. The fourth category concerns the investigation of breeding and long-term fuel logistics. Two fuel-cycle models used to answer questions in the third and fourth area are presented. The space- and time-dependent actinide balance, coupled with criticality and fuel-management constraints, is the basis for both the Discontinuous Integrated Fuel-Cycle Model and the Continuous Integrated Fuel-Cycle Model. The results of the continuous model are compared with results obtained from detailed two-dimensional space and multigroup depletion calculations. The continuous model yields nearly the same results as the detailed calculation, and this is with a comparatively insignificant fraction of the computational effort needed for the detailed calculation. Thus, the integrated model presented is an accurate tool for answering questions concerning reactor breeding capability and long-term fuel logistics. (author)

  4. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  5. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  6. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence

  7. [Development method of healthcare information system integration based on business collaboration model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shasha; Nie, Hongchao; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong

    2015-02-01

    Integration of heterogeneous systems is the key to hospital information construction due to complexity of the healthcare environment. Currently, during the process of healthcare information system integration, people participating in integration project usually communicate by free-format document, which impairs the efficiency and adaptability of integration. A method utilizing business process model and notation (BPMN) to model integration requirement and automatically transforming it to executable integration configuration was proposed in this paper. Based on the method, a tool was developed to model integration requirement and transform it to integration configuration. In addition, an integration case in radiology scenario was used to verify the method.

  8. Integrability and solvability of the simplified two-qubit Rabi model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Jie; Ren Zhongzhou; Guo Guangjie; Ju Guoxing

    2012-01-01

    The simplified two-qubit Rabi model is proposed and its analytical solution is presented. There are no level crossings in the spectral graph of the model, which indicates that it is not integrable. The criterion of integrability for the Rabi model proposed by Braak (2011 Phys. Rev. Lett. 107 100401) is also used for the simplified two-qubit Rabi model and the same conclusion, consistent with what the spectral graph shows, can be drawn, which indicates that the criterion remains valid when applied to the two-qubit case. The simplified two-qubit Rabi model is another example of a non-integrable but exactly solvable system except for the generalized Rabi model. (paper)

  9. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Integration of a Three-Dimensional Process-Based Hydrological Model into the Object Modeling System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Formetta

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The integration of a spatial process model into an environmental modeling framework can enhance the model’s capabilities. This paper describes a general methodology for integrating environmental models into the Object Modeling System (OMS regardless of the model’s complexity, the programming language, and the operating system used. We present the integration of the GEOtop model into the OMS version 3.0 and illustrate its application in a small watershed. OMS is an environmental modeling framework that facilitates model development, calibration, evaluation, and maintenance. It provides innovative techniques in software design such as multithreading, implicit parallelism, calibration and sensitivity analysis algorithms, and cloud-services. GEOtop is a physically based, spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model that performs three-dimensional finite volume calculations of water and energy budgets. Executing GEOtop as an OMS model component allows it to: (1 interact directly with the open-source geographical information system (GIS uDig-JGrass to access geo-processing, visualization, and other modeling components; and (2 use OMS components for automatic calibration, sensitivity analysis, or meteorological data interpolation. A case study of the model in a semi-arid agricultural catchment is presented for illustration and proof-of-concept. Simulated soil water content and soil temperature results are compared with measured data, and model performance is evaluated using goodness-of-fit indices. This study serves as a template for future integration of process models into OMS.

  11. Psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of right uncinate fasciculus in a community population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobhani, Mona; Baker, Laura; Martins, Bradford; Tuvblad, Catherine; Aziz-Zadeh, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    Individuals with psychopathy possess emotional and behavioral abnormalities. Two neural regions, involved in behavioral control and emotion regulation, are often implicated: amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). Recently, in studies using adult criminal populations, reductions in microstructural integrity of the white matter connections (i.e., uncinate fasciculus (UF)) between these two neural regions have been discovered in criminals with psychopathy, supporting the notion of neural dysfunction in the amygdala-VMPFC circuit. Here, a young adult, community sample is used to assess whether psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of UF, and whether this relationship is dependent upon levels of trait anxiety, which is sometimes used to distinguish subtypes of psychopathy. Results reveal a negative association between psychopathic traits and microstructural integrity of UF, supporting previous findings. However, no moderation of the relationship by trait anxiety was discovered. Findings provide further support for the notion of altered amygdala-VMPFC connectivity in association with higher psychopathic traits.

  12. Psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of right uncinate fasciculus in a community population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona Sobhani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with psychopathy possess emotional and behavioral abnormalities. Two neural regions, involved in behavioral control and emotion regulation, are often implicated: amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC. Recently, in studies using adult criminal populations, reductions in microstructural integrity of the white matter connections (i.e., uncinate fasciculus (UF between these two neural regions have been discovered in criminals with psychopathy, supporting the notion of neural dysfunction in the amygdala–VMPFC circuit. Here, a young adult, community sample is used to assess whether psychopathic traits modulate microstructural integrity of UF, and whether this relationship is dependent upon levels of trait anxiety, which is sometimes used to distinguish subtypes of psychopathy. Results reveal a negative association between psychopathic traits and microstructural integrity of UF, supporting previous findings. However, no moderation of the relationship by trait anxiety was discovered. Findings provide further support for the notion of altered amygdala–VMPFC connectivity in association with higher psychopathic traits.

  13. Patient Segmentation Analysis Offers Significant Benefits For Integrated Care And Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuik, Sabine I; Mayer, Erik K; Darzi, Ara

    2016-05-01

    Integrated care aims to organize care around the patient instead of the provider. It is therefore crucial to understand differences across patients and their needs. Segmentation analysis that uses big data can help divide a patient population into distinct groups, which can then be targeted with care models and intervention programs tailored to their needs. In this article we explore the potential applications of patient segmentation in integrated care. We propose a framework for population strategies in integrated care-whole populations, subpopulations, and high-risk populations-and show how patient segmentation can support these strategies. Through international case examples, we illustrate practical considerations such as choosing a segmentation logic, accessing data, and tailoring care models. Important issues for policy makers to consider are trade-offs between simplicity and precision, trade-offs between customized and off-the-shelf solutions, and the availability of linked data sets. We conclude that segmentation can provide many benefits to integrated care, and we encourage policy makers to support its use. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  14. Climbing the ladder: capability maturity model integration level 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Bryce; Lutteroth, Christof

    2011-02-01

    This article details the attempt to form a complete workflow model for an information and communication technologies (ICT) company in order to achieve a capability maturity model integration (CMMI) maturity rating of 3. During this project, business processes across the company's core and auxiliary sectors were documented and extended using modern enterprise modelling tools and a The Open Group Architectural Framework (TOGAF) methodology. Different challenges were encountered with regard to process customisation and tool support for enterprise modelling. In particular, there were problems with the reuse of process models, the integration of different project management methodologies and the integration of the Rational Unified Process development process framework that had to be solved. We report on these challenges and the perceived effects of the project on the company. Finally, we point out research directions that could help to improve the situation in the future.

  15. Integrated Model of Bioenergy and Agriculture System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigurjonsson, Hafthor Ægir; Elmegaard, Brian; Clausen, Lasse Røngaard

    2015-01-01

    Due to increased burden on the environment caused by human activities, focus on industrial ecology designs are gaining more attention. In that perspective an environ- mentally effective integration of bionergy and agriculture systems has significant potential. This work introduces a modeling...... of the overall model. C- TOOL and Yasso07 are used in the carbon balance of agri- culture, Dynamic Network Analysis is used for the energy simulation and Brightway2 is used to build a Life Cycle Inventory compatible database and processes it for vari- ous impacts assessment methods. The model is success- fully...... approach that builds on Life Cycle Inventory and carries out Life Cycle Impact Assessment for a con- sequential Life Cycle Assessment on integrated bioenergy and agriculture systems. The model framework is built in Python which connects various freely available soft- ware that handle different aspects...

  16. Quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagi, Junya

    2015-01-01

    We discuss connections between certain classes of supersymmetric quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models from the point of view of topological quantum field theories (TQFTs). The relevant classes include 4d N=1 theories known as brane box and brane tilling models, 3d N=2 and 2d N=(2,2) theories obtained from them by compactification, and 2d N=(0,2) theories closely related to these theories. We argue that their supersymmetric indices carry structures of TQFTs equipped with line operators, and as a consequence, are equal to the partition functions of lattice models. The integrability of these models follows from the existence of extra dimension in the TQFTs, which emerges after the theories are embedded in M-theory. The Yang-Baxter equation expresses the invariance of supersymmetric indices under Seiberg duality and its lower-dimensional analogs.

  17. Key Issues for Seamless Integrated Chemistry–Meteorology Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online coupled meteorology–atmospheric chemistry models have greatly evolved in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modeling community, these integrated models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, as they can con...

  18. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  19. A one-population Amari model with periodic microstructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svanstedt, Nils; Wyller, John; Malyutina, Elena

    2014-01-01

    We review the derivation of the homogenized one-population Amari equation by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity function. A key point in this derivation is Visintin's theorem for two-scale convergence of convolution integrals. We construct single bump solutions of the resulting homogenized equation using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable and the firing rate function is modelled as a unit step function. The parameter measuring the degree of heterogeneity plays the role of a control parameter. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. A framework for analysing the stability of these structures is formulated. This framework is based on spectral theory for Hilbert–Schmidt integral operators and it deforms to the standard Evans function approach for the translational invariant case in the limit of no heterogeneity. The upper and lower bounds of the growth/decay rates of the perturbations imposed on the bump states can be expressed in terms of the operator norm of the actual Hilbert–Schmidt operator. Intervals for which the pinning function is increasing correspond to unstable bumps, while complementary intervals where the pinning function decreases correspond to stable bumps, just as in the translational invariant case. Examples showing the properties of the bumps are discussed in detail when the connectivity kernels are given in terms of an exponential decaying function, a wizard hat function and a damped oscillating function. (paper)

  20. Dealing with dissatisfaction in mathematical modelling to integrate QFD and Kano’s model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retno Sari Dewi, Dian; Debora, Joana; Edy Sianto, Martinus

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of the study is to implement the integration of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano’s Model into mathematical model. Voice of customer data in QFD was collected using questionnaire and the questionnaire was developed based on Kano’s model. Then the operational research methodology was applied to build the objective function and constraints in the mathematical model. The relationship between voice of customer and engineering characteristics was modelled using linier regression model. Output of the mathematical model would be detail of engineering characteristics. The objective function of this model is to maximize satisfaction and minimize dissatisfaction as well. Result of this model is 62% .The major contribution of this research is to implement the existing mathematical model to integrate QFD and Kano’s Model in the case study of shoe cabinet.

  1. Analysis of Population Substructure in Two Sympatric Populations of Gran Chaco, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevini, Federica; Yao, Daniele Yang; Lomartire, Laura; Barbieri, Annalaura; Vianello, Dario; Ferri, Gianmarco; Moretti, Edgardo; Dasso, Maria Cristina; Garagnani, Paolo; Pettener, Davide; Franceschi, Claudio; Luiselli, Donata; Franceschi, Zelda Alice

    2013-01-01

    Sub-population structure and intricate kinship dynamics might introduce biases in molecular anthropology studies and could invalidate the efforts to understand diseases in highly admixed populations. In order to clarify the previously observed distribution pattern and morbidity of Chagas disease in Gran Chaco, Argentina, we studied two populations (Wichí and Criollos) recruited following an innovative bio-cultural model considering their complex cultural interactions. By reconstructing the genetic background and the structure of these two culturally different populations, the pattern of admixture, the correspondence between genealogical and genetic relationships, this integrated perspective had the power to validate data and to link the gap usually relying on a singular discipline. Although Wichí and Criollos share the same area, these sympatric populations are differentiated from the genetic point of view as revealed by Non Recombinant Y Chromosome genotyping resulting in significantly high Fst values and in a lower genetic variability in the Wichí population. Surprisingly, the Amerindian and the European components emerged with comparable amounts (20%) among Criollos and Wichí respectively. The detailed analysis of mitochondrial DNA showed that the two populations have as much as 87% of private haplotypes. Moreover, from the maternal perspective, despite a common Amerindian origin, an Andean and an Amazonian component emerged in Criollos and in Wichí respectively. Our approach allowed us to highlight that quite frequently there is a discrepancy between self-reported and genetic kinship. Indeed, if self-reported identity and kinship are usually utilized in population genetics as a reliable proxy for genetic identity and parental relationship, in our model populations appear to be the result not only and not simply of the genetic background but also of complex cultural determinants. This integrated approach paves the way to a rigorous reconstruction of

  2. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  3. Integration of pharmacology, molecular pathology, and population data science to support precision gastrointestinal oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogino, Shuji; Jhun, Iny; Mata, Douglas A; Soong, Thing Rinda; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Liu, Li; Nishihara, Reiko; Giannakis, Marios; Cao, Yin; Manson, JoAnn E; Nowak, Jonathan A; Chan, Andrew T

    2017-01-01

    Precision medicine has a goal of customizing disease prevention and treatment strategies. Under the precision medicine paradigm, each patient has unique pathologic processes resulting from cellular genomic, epigenomic, proteomic, and metabolomic alterations, which are influenced by pharmacological, environmental, microbial, dietary, and lifestyle factors. Hence, to realize the promise of precision medicine, multi-level research methods that can comprehensively analyze many of these variables are needed. In order to address this gap, the integrative field of molecular pathology and population data science (i.e., molecular pathological epidemiology) has been developed to enable such multi-level analyses, especially in gastrointestinal cancer research. Further integration of pharmacology can improve our understanding of drug effects, and inform decision-making of drug use at both the individual and population levels. Such integrative research demonstrated potential benefits of aspirin in colorectal carcinoma with PIK3CA mutations, providing the basis for new clinical trials. Evidence also suggests that HPGD (15-PDGH) expression levels in normal colon and the germline rs6983267 polymorphism that relates to tumor CTNNB1 (β-catenin)/ WNT signaling status may predict the efficacy of aspirin for cancer chemoprevention. As immune checkpoint blockade targeting the CD274 (PD-L1)/ PDCD1 (PD-1) pathway for microsatellite instability-high (or mismatch repair-deficient) metastatic gastrointestinal or other tumors has become standard of care, potential modifying effects of dietary, lifestyle, microbial, and environmental factors on immunotherapy need to be studied to further optimize treatment strategies. With its broad applicability, our integrative approach can provide insights into the interactive role of medications, exposures, and molecular pathology, and guide the development of precision medicine.

  4. Integrative change model in psychotherapy: Perspectives from Indian thought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manickam, L S S

    2013-01-01

    Different psychotherapeutic approaches claim positive changes in patients as a result of therapy. Explanations related to the change process led to different change models. Some of the change models are experimentally oriented whereas some are theoretical. Apart from the core models of behavioral, psychodynamic, humanistic, cognitive and spiritually oriented models there are specific models, within psychotherapy that explains the change process. Integrative theory of a person as depicted in Indian thought provides a common ground for the integration of various therapies. Integrative model of change based on Indian thought, with specific reference to psychological concepts in Upanishads, Ayurveda, Bhagavad Gita and Yoga are presented. Appropriate psychological tools may be developed in order to help the clinicians to choose the techniques that match the problem and the origin of the dimension. Explorations have to be conducted to develop more techniques that are culturally appropriate and clinically useful. Research has to be initiated to validate the identified concepts.

  5. Critical review of membrane bioreactor models--part 2: hydrodynamic and integrated models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naessens, W; Maere, T; Ratkovich, N; Vedantam, S; Nopens, I

    2012-10-01

    Membrane bioreactor technology exists for a couple of decades, but has not yet overwhelmed the market due to some serious drawbacks of which operational cost due to fouling is the major contributor. Knowledge buildup and optimisation for such complex systems can heavily benefit from mathematical modelling. In this paper, the vast literature on hydrodynamic and integrated MBR modelling is critically reviewed. Hydrodynamic models are used at different scales and focus mainly on fouling and only little on system design/optimisation. Integrated models also focus on fouling although the ones including costs are leaning towards optimisation. Trends are discussed, knowledge gaps identified and interesting routes for further research suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Computer-aided operations engineering with integrated models of systems and operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Ryan, Dan; Fleming, Land

    1994-01-01

    CONFIG 3 is a prototype software tool that supports integrated conceptual design evaluation from early in the product life cycle, by supporting isolated or integrated modeling, simulation, and analysis of the function, structure, behavior, failures and operation of system designs. Integration and reuse of models is supported in an object-oriented environment providing capabilities for graph analysis and discrete event simulation. Integration is supported among diverse modeling approaches (component view, configuration or flow path view, and procedure view) and diverse simulation and analysis approaches. Support is provided for integrated engineering in diverse design domains, including mechanical and electro-mechanical systems, distributed computer systems, and chemical processing and transport systems. CONFIG supports abstracted qualitative and symbolic modeling, for early conceptual design. System models are component structure models with operating modes, with embedded time-related behavior models. CONFIG supports failure modeling and modeling of state or configuration changes that result in dynamic changes in dependencies among components. Operations and procedure models are activity structure models that interact with system models. CONFIG is designed to support evaluation of system operability, diagnosability and fault tolerance, and analysis of the development of system effects of problems over time, including faults, failures, and procedural or environmental difficulties.

  7. Theories and Frameworks for Online Education: Seeking an Integrated Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciano, Anthony G.

    2017-01-01

    This article examines theoretical frameworks and models that focus on the pedagogical aspects of online education. After a review of learning theory as applied to online education, a proposal for an integrated "Multimodal Model for Online Education" is provided based on pedagogical purpose. The model attempts to integrate the work of…

  8. Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    integration is that it allows the investigation of the effects of different water demand management strategies to an urban population's water demand behaviour and ultimately the effects of these policies to the volume of domestic water demand and the water resources system. The proposed modelling platform is optimised to simulate the effects of water policies during the Athens drought period of 1988-1994. The calibrated modelling platform is then applied to evaluate scenarios of water supply, water demand and water demand management strategies.

  9. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R Kelble

    Full Text Available There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society

  10. The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelble, Christopher R.; Loomis, Dave K.; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K.; Ortner, Peter B.; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S.; Lorenz, Jerry J.; Boyer, Joseph N.

    2013-01-01

    There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within

  11. Seismically integrated geologic modelling: Guntong Field, Malay Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvert, Craig S.; Bhuyan, K.; Sterling, J. Helwick; Hill, Rob E.; Hubbard, R. Scott; Khare, Vijay; Wahrmund, Leslie A.; Wang, Gann-Shyong

    1998-12-31

    This presentation relates to a research project on offshore seismically reservoir modelling. The goal of the project was to develop and test a process for interpreting reservoir properties from 3-D seismic data and for integrating these data into the building of 3-D geologic models that would be suitable for use in flow simulation studies. The project produced a 3-D geologic model for three reservoir intervals and three predominantly non-reservoir intervals. Each reservoir interval was subdivided into faces that were determined by integrating core, well log, and seismic interpretations. predictions of porosity and lithology used in building the geologic model were made using seismic attributes calculated from acoustic impedance data. 8 figs.

  12. Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Sluijs, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

  13. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

  14. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries

  15. A new (in)finite-dimensional algebra for quantum integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baseilhac, Pascal; Koizumi, Kozo

    2005-01-01

    A new (in)finite-dimensional algebra which is a fundamental dynamical symmetry of a large class of (continuum or lattice) quantum integrable models is introduced and studied in details. Finite-dimensional representations are constructed and mutually commuting quantities-which ensure the integrability of the system-are written in terms of the fundamental generators of the new algebra. Relation with the deformed Dolan-Grady integrable structure recently discovered by one of the authors and Terwilliger's tridiagonal algebras is described. Remarkably, this (in)finite-dimensional algebra is a 'q-deformed' analogue of the original Onsager's algebra arising in the planar Ising model. Consequently, it provides a new and alternative algebraic framework for studying massive, as well as conformal, quantum integrable models

  16. Integrated modelling of near field and engineered barrier system processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamont, A.; Gansemer, J.

    1994-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Integrating Model (YMIM) is an integrated model of the Engineered barrier System has been developed to assist project managers at LLNL in identifying areas where research emphasis should be placed. The model was designed to be highly modular so that a model of an individual process could be easily modified or replaced without interfering with the models of other processes. The modules modelling container failure and the dissolution of nuclides include particularly detailed, temperature dependent models of their corresponding processes

  17. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question

  18. Integrated catchment modelling in a Semi-arid area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bugan, Richard DH

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available , will increasingly need water quality and quantity management tools to be able to make informed decisions. Integrated catchment modelling (ICM) is regarded as being a valuable tool for integrated water resource management. It enables officials and scientists to make...

  19. Towards Finite-Gap Integration of the Inozemtsev Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kouichi Takemura

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The Inozemtsev model is considered to be a multivaluable generalization of Heun's equation. We review results on Heun's equation, the elliptic Calogero-Moser-Sutherland model and the Inozemtsev model, and discuss some approaches to the finite-gap integration for multivariable models.

  20. Stochastic modeling for reliability shocks, burn-in and heterogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Focusing on shocks modeling, burn-in and heterogeneous populations, Stochastic Modeling for Reliability naturally combines these three topics in the unified stochastic framework and presents numerous practical examples that illustrate recent theoretical findings of the authors.  The populations of manufactured items in industry are usually heterogeneous. However, the conventional reliability analysis is performed under the implicit assumption of homogeneity, which can result in distortion of the corresponding reliability indices and various misconceptions. Stochastic Modeling for Reliability fills this gap and presents the basics and further developments of reliability theory for heterogeneous populations. Specifically, the authors consider burn-in as a method of elimination of ‘weak’ items from heterogeneous populations. The real life objects are operating in a changing environment. One of the ways to model an impact of this environment is via the external shocks occurring in accordance with some stocha...

  1. Accurate path integration in continuous attractor network models of grid cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burak, Yoram; Fiete, Ila R

    2009-02-01

    Grid cells in the rat entorhinal cortex display strikingly regular firing responses to the animal's position in 2-D space and have been hypothesized to form the neural substrate for dead-reckoning. However, errors accumulate rapidly when velocity inputs are integrated in existing models of grid cell activity. To produce grid-cell-like responses, these models would require frequent resets triggered by external sensory cues. Such inadequacies, shared by various models, cast doubt on the dead-reckoning potential of the grid cell system. Here we focus on the question of accurate path integration, specifically in continuous attractor models of grid cell activity. We show, in contrast to previous models, that continuous attractor models can generate regular triangular grid responses, based on inputs that encode only the rat's velocity and heading direction. We consider the role of the network boundary in the integration performance of the network and show that both periodic and aperiodic networks are capable of accurate path integration, despite important differences in their attractor manifolds. We quantify the rate at which errors in the velocity integration accumulate as a function of network size and intrinsic noise within the network. With a plausible range of parameters and the inclusion of spike variability, our model networks can accurately integrate velocity inputs over a maximum of approximately 10-100 meters and approximately 1-10 minutes. These findings form a proof-of-concept that continuous attractor dynamics may underlie velocity integration in the dorsolateral medial entorhinal cortex. The simulations also generate pertinent upper bounds on the accuracy of integration that may be achieved by continuous attractor dynamics in the grid cell network. We suggest experiments to test the continuous attractor model and differentiate it from models in which single cells establish their responses independently of each other.

  2. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  3. Experiences of Community-Living Older Adults Receiving Integrated Care Based on the Chronic Care Model: A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spoorenberg, Sophie L W; Wynia, Klaske; Fokkens, Andrea S; Slotman, Karin; Kremer, Hubertus P H; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2015-01-01

    Integrated care models aim to solve the problem of fragmented and poorly coordinated care in current healthcare systems. These models aim to be patient-centered by providing continuous and coordinated care and by considering the needs and preferences of patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the opinions and experiences of community-living older adults with regard to integrated care and support, along with the extent to which it meets their health and social needs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 23 older adults receiving integrated care and support through "Embrace," an integrated care model for community-living older adults that is based on the Chronic Care Model and a population health management model. Embrace is currently fully operational in the northern region of the Netherlands. Data analysis was based on the grounded theory approach. Responses of participants concerned two focus areas: 1) Experiences with aging, with the themes "Struggling with health," "Increasing dependency," "Decreasing social interaction," "Loss of control," and "Fears;" and 2) Experiences with Embrace, with the themes "Relationship with the case manager," "Interactions," and "Feeling in control, safe, and secure". The prospect of becoming dependent and losing control was a key concept in the lives of the older adults interviewed. Embrace reinforced the participants' ability to stay in control, even if they were dependent on others. Furthermore, participants felt safe and secure, in contrast to the fears of increasing dependency within the standard care system. The results indicate that integrated care and support provided through Embrace met the health and social needs of older adults, who were coping with the consequences of aging.

  4. Integrated modelling of crop production and nitrate leaching with the Daisy model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manevski, Kiril; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Li, Xiaoxin

    2016-01-01

    An integrated modelling strategy was designed and applied to the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model Daisy for simulation of crop production and nitrate leaching under pedo-climatic and agronomic environment different than that of model original parameterisation. The points of significance...

  5. Arbitrary modeling of TSVs for 3D integrated circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Salah, Khaled; El-Rouby, Alaa

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a wide-band and technology independent, SPICE-compatible RLC model for through-silicon vias (TSVs) in 3D integrated circuits. This model accounts for a variety of effects, including skin effect, depletion capacitance and nearby contact effects. Readers will benefit from in-depth coverage of concepts and technology such as 3D integration, Macro modeling, dimensional analysis and compact modeling, as well as closed form equations for the through silicon via parasitics. Concepts covered are demonstrated by using TSVs in applications such as a spiral inductor?and inductive-based

  6. SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krysanova, V; Wechsung, F; Arnold, J; Srinivasan, R; Williams, J

    2000-12-01

    The model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was developed in order to provide a comprehensive GIS-based tool for hydrological and water quality modelling in mesoscale and large river basins (from 100 to 10,000 km{sup 2}), which can be parameterised using regionally available information. The model was developed for the use mainly in Europe and temperate zone, though its application in other regions is possible as well. SWIM is based on two previously developed tools - SWAT and MATSALU (see more explanations in section 1.1). The model integrates hydrology, vegetation, erosion, and nutrient dynamics at the watershed scale. SWIM has a three-level disaggregation scheme 'basin - sub-basins - hydrotopes' and is coupled to the Geographic Information System GRASS (GRASS, 1993). A robust approach is suggested for the nitrogen and phosphorus modelling in mesoscale watersheds. SWIM runs under the UNIX environment. Model test and validation were performed sequentially for hydrology, crop growth, nitrogen and erosion in a number of mesoscale watersheds in the German part of the Elbe drainage basin. A comprehensive scheme of spatial disaggregation into sub-basins and hydrotopes combined with reasonable restriction on a sub-basin area allows performing the assessment of water resources and water quality with SWIM in mesoscale river basins. The modest data requirements represent an important advantage of the model. Direct connection to land use and climate data provides a possibility to use the model for analysis of climate change and land use change impacts on hydrology, agricultural production, and water quality. (orig.)

  7. The systems integration modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danker, W.J.; Williams, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the systems integration modeling system (SIMS), an analysis tool for the detailed evaluation of the structure and related performance of the Federal Waste Management System (FWMS) and its interface with waste generators. It's use for evaluations in support of system-level decisions as to FWMS configurations, the allocation, sizing, balancing and integration of functions among elements, and the establishment of system-preferred waste selection and sequencing methods and other operating strategies is presented. SIMS includes major analysis submodels which quantify the detailed characteristics of individual waste items, loaded casks and waste packages, simulate the detailed logistics of handling and processing discrete waste items and packages, and perform detailed cost evaluations

  8. Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

  9. Vortex Lattice UXO Mobility Model Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    law , no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB...predictions of the fate and transport of a broad-field UXO population are extremely sensitive to the initial state of that population, specifically: the...limit the model’s computational domain. This revised model software was built on the concept of interconnected geomorphic control cells consisting of

  10. Analysis of runoff for the Baltic basin with an integrated Atmospheric-Ocean-Hydrology Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.-G. Richter

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A fully integrated Atmospheric-Ocean-Hydrology Model (BALTIMOS = Baltic Integrated Model System has been developed using existing model components. Experiment and model design has been adapted to the Baltic basin with a catchment area of approximately 1 750 000 km2. A comprehensive model validation has been completed using large meteorological and hydrological measurement database. Comparing the calculated runoff from the integrated and non-integrated model system with measurements for three different representative subbasins and the entire Baltic basin, the effect of the integrated model is described. The results display a good agreement between measured and calculated runoff. The effect of the integrated model is rather negligible looking at computed mean values: There is no significant difference between mean monthly runoff of the integrated and non-integrated model during the year with the exception of spring. There is a delay of one month with regard to peak runoff for the non-integrated model in spring caused by different interactive processes during the melting period.

  11. Theoretical models of the impact of climate change on natural populations, communities and ecosystems. Final report, 1989--1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiegert, R.

    1992-12-31

    Land use change is a relatively understudied aspect of global change. In many cases, the impact of land use on plant and animal species may be far greater than the impact of climate change per se. As an integral part of our long-term studies of the response of animal populations to global change, we have focused on land use change as a dominant driving force. Climate change, no doubt, will also play a role in determining the future abundance and distribution of many species, but, for many species, the signal from climate change per se may be difficult to detect if we do not first understand the impact of land use change. This formed the dominant theme of the research by the PI (Pulliam). Both land use change and year to year climate change can directly affect other populations and two examples of this formed the focus of the remaining research, models of invertebrates in Carolina Bays and a model of a commercial estuarine population of blue crabs.

  12. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  13. The development of a fully-integrated immune response model (FIRM) simulator of the immune response through integration of multiple subset models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palsson, Sirus; Hickling, Timothy P; Bradshaw-Pierce, Erica L; Zager, Michael; Jooss, Karin; O'Brien, Peter J; Spilker, Mary E; Palsson, Bernhard O; Vicini, Paolo

    2013-09-28

    The complexity and multiscale nature of the mammalian immune response provides an excellent test bed for the potential of mathematical modeling and simulation to facilitate mechanistic understanding. Historically, mathematical models of the immune response focused on subsets of the immune system and/or specific aspects of the response. Mathematical models have been developed for the humoral side of the immune response, or for the cellular side, or for cytokine kinetics, but rarely have they been proposed to encompass the overall system complexity. We propose here a framework for integration of subset models, based on a system biology approach. A dynamic simulator, the Fully-integrated Immune Response Model (FIRM), was built in a stepwise fashion by integrating published subset models and adding novel features. The approach used to build the model includes the formulation of the network of interacting species and the subsequent introduction of rate laws to describe each biological process. The resulting model represents a multi-organ structure, comprised of the target organ where the immune response takes place, circulating blood, lymphoid T, and lymphoid B tissue. The cell types accounted for include macrophages, a few T-cell lineages (cytotoxic, regulatory, helper 1, and helper 2), and B-cell activation to plasma cells. Four different cytokines were accounted for: IFN-γ, IL-4, IL-10 and IL-12. In addition, generic inflammatory signals are used to represent the kinetics of IL-1, IL-2, and TGF-β. Cell recruitment, differentiation, replication, apoptosis and migration are described as appropriate for the different cell types. The model is a hybrid structure containing information from several mammalian species. The structure of the network was built to be physiologically and biochemically consistent. Rate laws for all the cellular fate processes, growth factor production rates and half-lives, together with antibody production rates and half-lives, are provided. The

  14. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  15. Integrated management of waterbirds: Beyond the conventional

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwin, R.M.; Parsons, Katharine C.; Brown, Stephen C.; Erwin, R. Michael; Czech, Helen A.; Coulson, John C.

    2002-01-01

    Integrated waterbird management over the past few decades has implicitly referred to methods for managing wetlands that usually attempt to enhance habitat for taxonomic groups such as shorebirds and wading birds, in addition to waterfowl, the traditional focus group. Here I describe five elements of integration in management: taxonomic, spatial, temporal, population and habitat, and multiple-use management objectives. Spatial integration simply expands the scale of management concern. Rather than emphasizing management on a very limited number of impoundments or wetlands in small refuges or wildlife management areas, the vision is beginning to shift to connectivity within larger landscapes on the order of many square kilometers as telemetry data on daily and seasonal movements for many species become available. Temporal integration refers to the potential for either simultaneous management for waterbirds and commercial 'crops' (e.g., crayfish and rice) or for temporally-staggered management such as row crop production in spring-summer growing seasons and waterbird management on fallow fields in the non-growing (winter) season. Integrating population dynamics with habitats has become a major research focus over the past decade. Identifying which wetlands are ?sources? or ?sinks? for specific populations provides managers with critical information about effective management. Further, the applications of spatially explicit population models place heavy demands on researchers to identify use patterns for breeding and dispersing individuals by age, sex, and reproductive class. Population viability analysis models require much the same information. Finally, multiple-use management integration refers to trying to optimize the uses of wetlands, when only one (perhaps secondary) use may include waterbird management. Depending upon the ownership and primary land use of a particular parcel of land containing wetlands and/or water bodies, managing for waterbirds may be an

  16. INTEGRATION OF FACILITY MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

    2011-07-18

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  17. Integration of facility modeling capabilities for nuclear nonproliferation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Humberto; Burr, Tom; Coles, Garill A.; Edmunds, Thomas A.; Garrett, Alfred; Gorensek, Maximilian; Hamm, Luther; Krebs, John; Kress, Reid L.; Lamberti, Vincent; Schoenwald, David; Tzanos, Constantine P.; Ward, Richard C.

    2012-01-01

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  18. Integration Of Facility Modeling Capabilities For Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

    2011-01-01

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  19. Integrated Heat Air & Moisture Modeling and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.W.M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents a recently developed Heat Air & Moisture Laboratory in SimuLink. The simulation laboratory facilitates the integration of the following models: (1) a whole building model; (2) Heating Venting and Air-Conditioning and primary systems; (3) 2D indoor airflow, 3D Heat Air & Moisture

  20. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  1. Towards an integrated model of international migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas S. MASSEY

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Demographers have yet to develop a suitable integrated model of international migration and consequently have been very poor at forecasting immigration. This paper outlines the basic elements of an integrated model and surveys recent history to suggest the key challenges to model construction. A comprehensive theory must explain the structural forces that create a supply of people prone to migrate internationally, the structural origins of labour demand in receiving countries, the motivations of those who respond to these forces by choosing to migrate internationally, the growth and structure of transnational networks that arise to support international movement, the behaviour states in response to immigrant flows, and the influence of state actions on the behaviour of migrants. Recent history suggests that a good model needs to respect the salience of markets, recognize the circularity of migrant flows, appreciate the power of feedback effects, and be alert unanticipated consequences of policy actions.

  2. CREATING EFFECTIVE MODELS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATED STRUCTURES IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Koliesnikov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of scientific research aimed at development of methodology-theoretical mechanisms of building the effective models of vertically-integrated structures are presented. A presence of vertically-integrated structures on natural-monopolistic markets at private and governmental sectors of economy and priority directions of integration are given.

  3. An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, P.J.F.M.; Knapen, M.J.R.; Winter, de W.P.; Wien, J.J.F.; Roller, te J.A.; Sieber, S.; Jansen, J.M.L.

    2010-01-01

    Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by

  4. Integrating incremental learning and episodic memory models of the hippocampal region.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeter, M.; Myers, C.E; Gluck, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    By integrating previous computational models of corticohippocampal function, the authors develop and test a unified theory of the neural substrates of familiarity, recollection, and classical conditioning. This approach integrates models from 2 traditions of hippocampal modeling, those of episodic

  5. Designing A Framework To Design A Business Model For The 'Bottom Of The Pyramid' Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ver Loren van Themaat, Tanye

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a framework for developing and designing a business model to target the bottom of the pyramid (BoP population. Using blue ocean strategy and business model literature, integrated with research on the BoP, the framework offers a systematic approach for organisations to analyse and understand all aspects of the BoP and their environment, and then design a business model that minimises the risk of failure and fulfils the core requirements of the BoP. A case study on Capitec Bank demonstrates how the framework can be applied to the real world. The case study shows the practical examples that Capitec uses to target the BoP successfully, and the logic behind these actions. Further validation was done through interviews with experts in the relevant fields used in this study.

  6. Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

    2004-05-01

    Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

  7. Root Systems Biology: Integrative Modeling across Scales, from Gene Regulatory Networks to the Rhizosphere1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Kristine; Porco, Silvana; Lobet, Guillaume; Zappala, Susan; Mooney, Sacha; Draye, Xavier; Bennett, Malcolm J.

    2013-01-01

    Genetic and genomic approaches in model organisms have advanced our understanding of root biology over the last decade. Recently, however, systems biology and modeling have emerged as important approaches, as our understanding of root regulatory pathways has become more complex and interpreting pathway outputs has become less intuitive. To relate root genotype to phenotype, we must move beyond the examination of interactions at the genetic network scale and employ multiscale modeling approaches to predict emergent properties at the tissue, organ, organism, and rhizosphere scales. Understanding the underlying biological mechanisms and the complex interplay between systems at these different scales requires an integrative approach. Here, we describe examples of such approaches and discuss the merits of developing models to span multiple scales, from network to population levels, and to address dynamic interactions between plants and their environment. PMID:24143806

  8. Modeling heterogeneous populations of thermostatically controlled loads using diffusion-advection PDEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moura, Scott; Ruiz, Victor; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on developing a partial differential equation (PDE)-based model and parameter identification scheme for heterogeneous populations of thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs). First, a coupled two-state hyperbolic PDE model for homogenous TCL populations is derived. This model i...

  9. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  10. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of processes,...

  11. Integrated Biosphere Simulator Model (IBIS), Version 2.5

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (or IBIS) is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere. Tthe model represents a wide range of...

  12. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  13. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  14. Peculiarities of designing Holistic Electronic Government Services Integration Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadas Limba

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpos– the aim ok this paper is to develop a Holistic Electronic Government Services Integration Model which could ensure the efficient integration of electronic government services in the local self-government level.Methodolog– the following analyses have been carried out in thirkpaper: theoretical-systematic; normative and conceptual comparative analysis of the researcha A method of modeling has also been applied.Finding– the scientific work analyzes the improvement opportunities of the models of electronic government services and their application alternatives in Lithuanian municipalities. The newly developed model of electronic government services that has been designed basng on the principle of integrating online expert consultation is primarily targeted at improvement of inside processes’ changes of an organization. Practicing the application of that model in the local self-government level starting with improvement of inside processes of an organization should help adapt more accurately and efficiently to the changing needs of the society while providing electronic government services, thus establishing a higher public value.Practical implication– the practical novelty of work is reflected not only through the integration opportunities’ assessment of the principle of online expert consultation services into the theoretical models of electronic government services that have already been developed by the scientists, but also on the basis of this principle there has been created a “Holistic Electronic Government Services Integration Model” in accordance with “E-Diamond” model basis and its practical application realization with the design of “The project of implementing the principle of online expert consultation on the model of electronic government services” for the future investigations.Originalit– the systematic, comparative analysis of the models of electronic government services carried out in the scientific

  15. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  16. Integrated corporate structure life cycle management modeling and organization

    OpenAIRE

    Naumenko, M.; Morozova, L.

    2011-01-01

    Integrated business structure presented as complementary pool of its participants skills. The methodical approach to integrated business structure life cycle modeling proposed. Recommendations of enterprises life cycles stages correlate are submitted.

  17. Integrated Medical Model Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; Saile, L.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project.

  18. Understanding Risk and Protective Factors for Child Maltreatment: The Value of Integrated, Population-Based Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; Needell, Barbara; Rhodes, Anne E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we argue for expanded efforts to integrate administrative data systems as a "practical strategy" for developing a richer understanding of child abuse and neglect. Although the study of child maltreatment is often critiqued for being atheoretical, we believe that a more pressing concern is the absence of population-based and…

  19. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  20. Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

    2018-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  1. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT): Composites Integrated Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Composites Integrated Modeling (CIM) Element developed low cost, lightweight, and efficient composite structures, materials and manufacturing technologies with...

  2. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  3. Integrating School-Based and Therapeutic Conflict Management Models at School.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Oosterlinck, Franky; Broekaert, Eric

    2003-01-01

    Explores the possibility of integrating school-based and therapeutic conflict management models, comparing two management models: a school-based conflict management program, "Teaching Students To Be Peacemakers"; and a therapeutic conflict management program, "Life Space Crisis Intervention." The paper concludes that integration might be possible…

  4. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  5. Mars Colony in situ resource utilization: An integrated architecture and economics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Fradet, René; Do, Sydney; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

    2017-09-01

    This paper reports on our effort to develop an ensemble of specialized models to explore the commercial potential of mining water/ice on Mars in support of a Mars Colony. This ensemble starts with a formal systems architecting framework to describe a Mars Colony and capture its artifacts' parameters and technical attributes. The resulting database is then linked to a variety of ;downstream; analytic models. In particular, we integrated an extraction process (i.e., ;mining;) model, a simulation of the colony's environmental control and life support infrastructure known as HabNet, and a risk-based economics model. The mining model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. This model computes the production rate as a function of the systems' technical parameters and the local Mars environment. HabNet simulates the fundamental sustainability relationships associated with establishing and maintaining the colony's population. The economics model brings together market information, investment and operating costs, along with measures of market uncertainty and Monte Carlo techniques, with the objective of determining the profitability of commercial water/ice in situ mining operations. All told, over 50 market and technical parameters can be varied in order to address ;what-if; questions, including colony location.

  6. Non-communicable diseases and HIV care and treatment: models of integrated service delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Malia; Ojikutu, Bisola; Andrian, Soa; Sohng, Elaine; Minior, Thomas; Hirschhorn, Lisa R

    2017-08-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are a growing cause of morbidity in low-income countries including in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Integration of NCD and HIV services can build upon experience with chronic care models from HIV programmes. We describe models of NCD and HIV integration, challenges and lessons learned. A literature review of published articles on integrated NCD and HIV programs in low-income countries and key informant interviews were conducted with leaders of identified integrated NCD and HIV programs. Information was synthesised to identify models of NCD and HIV service delivery integration. Three models of integration were identified as follows: NCD services integrated into centres originally providing HIV care; HIV care integrated into primary health care (PHC) already offering NCD services; and simultaneous introduction of integrated HIV and NCD services. Major challenges identified included NCD supply chain, human resources, referral systems, patient education, stigma, patient records and monitoring and evaluation. The range of HIV and NCD services varied widely within and across models. Regardless of model of integration, leveraging experience from HIV care models and adapting existing systems and tools is a feasible method to provide efficient care and treatment for the growing numbers of patients with NCDs. Operational research should be conducted to further study how successful models of HIV and NCD integration can be expanded in scope and scaled-up by managers and policymakers seeking to address all the chronic care needs of their patients. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Jonathan W.; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan L.; O'Meilia, Chris M.

    2017-08-09

    We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

  8. [The Bellagio Model: an evidence-informed, international framework for population-oriented primary care. First experiences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlette, Sophia; Lisac, Melanie; Wagner, Ed; Gensichen, Jochen

    2009-01-01

    The Bellagio Model for Population-oriented Primary Care is an evidence-informed framework to assess accessible care for sick, vulnerable, and healthy people. The model was developed in spring 2008 by a multidisciplinary group of 24 experts from nine countries. The purpose of their gathering was to determine success factors for effective 21st century primary care based on state-of-the-art research findings, models, and empirical experience, and to assist with its implementation in practice, management, and health policy. Against the backdrop of "partialization", fragmentation in open health care systems, and the growing numbers of chronically ill or fragile people or those in need of any other kind of care, today's health care systems do not provide the much needed anchor point for continuing coordination and assistance prior, during and following an episode of illness. The Bellagio Model consists of ten key elements, which can make a substantial contribution to identify and overcome current gaps in primary care by using a synergetic approach. These elements are Shared Leadership, Public Trust, Horizontal and Vertical Integration, Networking of Professionals, Standardized Measurement, Research and Development, Payment Mix, Infrastructure, Programmes for Practice Improvement, and Population-oriented Management. All of these elements, which have been identified as being equally necessary, are also alike in that they involve all those responsible for health care: providers, managers, and policymakers.

  9. Investigation of the Nonlinear Model of the Cellular Population System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Vinogradova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An isolated population system is considered which consists of two types of human stem cells: normal cells and cells with chromosomal anomalies (abnormal. In the paper the nonlinear dynamic model which describes dynamics of cell populations developing in vitro is elaborated. The model allows to investigate the processes of the formation of the abnormal cells population from the abnormal cells population of normal cells as well as joint development of these populations. The model takes into account the limited resources.An important feature of the developed model is the use of biological characteristics of processes in the cell population system, such as the proportion of cells, divided over a specified time, the proportion of cells whish are not divided, and which are "lost" and which are passed in the population of abnormal cells from the normal population. This approach allows a more detailed analysis of the impact of various "primary" parameters on the evolution of the population system.Under cultivation of cell populations in vitro a struggle for resources primarily affects the processes of the cell reproduction. This is reflected in the existence of the dividing cells frequency dependence of the total population of normal and abnormal cells. For the account of such dependencies different non-linear functions are typically used. However, the use of such non-linear relationships leads to the difficulties in finding confidence intervals for the estimates of the model parameters at subsequent stages of research. At the same time, the problem of the system parameters estimating and finding of the corresponding confidence intervals for estimates can be solved easy in case when the nonlinear system is linear with respect to the unknown parameters. In the paper it is achieved due to the piecewise linear approximation of nonlinear dependencies.An important feature of the model is a different view of the right part of the differential equations system

  10. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  11. Integrated Surface/subsurface flow modeling in PFLOTRAN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Painter, Scott L [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Understanding soil water, groundwater, and shallow surface water dynamics as an integrated hydrological system is critical for understanding the Earth’s critical zone, the thin outer layer at our planet’s surface where vegetation, soil, rock, and gases interact to regulate the environment. Computational tools that take this view of soil moisture and shallow surface flows as a single integrated system are typically referred to as integrated surface/subsurface hydrology models. We extend the open-source, highly parallel, subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to accommodate surface flows. In contrast to most previous implementations, we do not represent a distinct surface system. Instead, the vertical gradient in hydraulic head at the land surface is neglected, which allows the surface flow system to be eliminated and incorporated directly into the subsurface system. This tight coupling approach leads to a robust capability and also greatly simplifies implementation in existing subsurface simulators such as PFLOTRAN. Successful comparisons to independent numerical solutions build confidence in the approximation and implementation. Example simulations of the Walker Branch and East Fork Poplar Creek watersheds near Oak Ridge, Tennessee demonstrate the robustness of the approach in geometrically complex applications. The lack of a robust integrated surface/subsurface hydrology capability had been a barrier to PFLOTRAN’s use in critical zone studies. This work addresses that capability gap, thus enabling PFLOTRAN as a community platform for building integrated models of the critical zone.

  12. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  13. Multi-population genomic prediction using a multi-task Bayesian learning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liuhong; Li, Changxi; Miller, Stephen; Schenkel, Flavio

    2014-05-03

    Genomic prediction in multiple populations can be viewed as a multi-task learning problem where tasks are to derive prediction equations for each population and multi-task learning property can be improved by sharing information across populations. The goal of this study was to develop a multi-task Bayesian learning model for multi-population genomic prediction with a strategy to effectively share information across populations. Simulation studies and real data from Holstein and Ayrshire dairy breeds with phenotypes on five milk production traits were used to evaluate the proposed multi-task Bayesian learning model and compare with a single-task model and a simple data pooling method. A multi-task Bayesian learning model was proposed for multi-population genomic prediction. Information was shared across populations through a common set of latent indicator variables while SNP effects were allowed to vary in different populations. Both simulation studies and real data analysis showed the effectiveness of the multi-task model in improving genomic prediction accuracy for the smaller Ayshire breed. Simulation studies suggested that the multi-task model was most effective when the number of QTL was small (n = 20), with an increase of accuracy by up to 0.09 when QTL effects were lowly correlated between two populations (ρ = 0.2), and up to 0.16 when QTL effects were highly correlated (ρ = 0.8). When QTL genotypes were included for training and validation, the improvements were 0.16 and 0.22, respectively, for scenarios of the low and high correlation of QTL effects between two populations. When the number of QTL was large (n = 200), improvement was small with a maximum of 0.02 when QTL genotypes were not included for genomic prediction. Reduction in accuracy was observed for the simple pooling method when the number of QTL was small and correlation of QTL effects between the two populations was low. For the real data, the multi-task model achieved an

  14. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  15. A mathematical model of a crocodilian population using delay-differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, Angela; Plummer, Tenecia; Uminsky, David; Vega, Cinthia; Wickman, Clare; Zawoiski, Michael

    2008-11-01

    The crocodilia have multiple interesting characteristics that affect their population dynamics. They are among several reptile species which exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in which the temperature of egg incubation determines the sex of the hatchlings. Their life parameters, specifically birth and death rates, exhibit strong age-dependence. We develop delay-differential equation (DDE) models describing the evolution of a crocodilian population. In using the delay formulation, we are able to account for both the TSD and the age-dependence of the life parameters while maintaining some analytical tractability. In our single-delay model we also find an equilibrium point and prove its local asymptotic stability. We numerically solve the different models and investigate the effects of multiple delays on the age structure of the population as well as the sex ratio of the population. For all models we obtain very strong agreement with the age structure of crocodilian population data as reported in Smith and Webb (Aust. Wild. Res. 12, 541-554, 1985). We also obtain reasonable values for the sex ratio of the simulated population.

  16. An integrated dynamic model for probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsueh, K.-S.; Wang Kong

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a simulation based accident sequence analysis program (ADS) for large scale dynamic accident sequence simulation. Human operators, front-line and support systems as well as plant thermal-hydraulic behavior are explicitly modeled as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. To overcome the model size, the proposed methodology employs several techniques including use of 'initial state vector' which decouples time-dependent and time-independent factors, and a depth first integration method in which the computation memory demand increases in a linear order. The computer implementation of the method is capable of simulating up to 500 branch points in sequence development, models system failure during operation, allows for recovery from operator errors and hardware failures, and implements a simple model for operator system interactions. (author)

  17. Integrated multiscale biomaterials experiment and modelling: a perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Markus J.; Genin, Guy M.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in multiscale models and computational power have enabled a broad toolset to predict how molecules, cells, tissues and organs behave and develop. A key theme in biological systems is the emergence of macroscale behaviour from collective behaviours across a range of length and timescales, and a key element of these models is therefore hierarchical simulation. However, this predictive capacity has far outstripped our ability to validate predictions experimentally, particularly when multiple hierarchical levels are involved. The state of the art represents careful integration of multiscale experiment and modelling, and yields not only validation, but also insights into deformation and relaxation mechanisms across scales. We present here a sampling of key results that highlight both challenges and opportunities for integrated multiscale experiment and modelling in biological systems. PMID:28981126

  18. Population and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-01

    The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) recently organized a workshop to develop an analytical framework for population research and development planning. The workshop goal was to enable study directors to review and discuss research methodology and guidelines for a series of country studies to be undertaken as part of a large project devoted to integrating population and development. The overall project objective is to provide individual national entities with current and scientifically sound descriptions, analyses, and interpretations of significant population and development trends and their interrelationships along with assessments of the implications of such trends and relationships for the formulation and improvement of public policy. 1 reason for the limited progress in the integration of population and development planning is the lack of useful and applicable scientific information for responsible planners as well as a lack of analytical frameworks. If the results of the research are to be made useful for decisionmaking purposes, processing of the information is required. The need exists for current critical analysis and synthesis of available information at the country level on significant population and development trends and their interrelationships and an assessment of their implications for the formulation and improvement of public policy and programs. In regard to an analytical framework, much work has been done in the areas of population development interrelationships and their modelling. Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand are the countries which have been selected for investigation for the ESCAP project. The comparative analysis that is to be conducted will facilitate understanding of current population development research activities and the future needs of these countries.

  19. Using a Content Management System for Integrated Water Quantity, Quality and Instream Flows Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgholzer, R.; Brogan, C. O.; Scott, D.; Keys, T.

    2017-12-01

    With increased population and water demand, in-stream flows can become depleted by consumptive uses and dilution of permitted discharges may be compromised. Reduced flows downstream of water withdrawals may increase the violation rate of bacterial concentrations from direct deposition by livestock and wildlife. Water storage reservoirs are constructed and operated to insure more stable supplies for consumptive demands and dilution flows, however their use comes at the cost of increased evaporative losses, potential for thermal pollution, interrupted fish migration, and reduced flooding events that are critical to maintain habitat and water quality. Due to this complex interrelationship between water quantity, quality and instream habitat comprehensive multi-disciplinary models must be developed to insure long-term sustainability of water resources and to avoid conflicts between drinking water, food and energy production, and aquatic biota. The Commonwealth of Virginia funded the expansion of the Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 5 model to cover the entire state, and has been using this model to evaluate water supply permit and planning since 2009. This integrated modeling system combines a content management system (Drupal and PHP) for model input data and leverages the modularity of HSPF with the custom segmentation and parameterization routines programmed by modelers working with the Chesapeake Bay Program. The model has been applied to over 30 Virginia Water Permits, instream flows and aquatic habitat models and a Virginias 30 year water supply demand projections. Future versions will leverage the Bay Model auto-calibration routines for adding small-scale water supply and TMDL models, utilize climate change scenarios, and integrate Virginia's reservoir management modules into the Chesapeake Bay watershed model, feeding projected demand and operational changes back up to EPA models to improve the realism of future Bay-wide simulations.

  20. Integrated on-line accelerator modeling at CEBAF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowling, B.A.; Shoaee, H.; Van Zeijts, J.; Witherspoon, S.; Watson, W.

    1995-01-01

    An on-line accelerator modeling facility is currently under development at CEBAF. The model server, which is integrated with the EPICS control system, provides coupled and 2nd-order matrices for the entire accelerator, and forms the foundation for automated model- based control and diagnostic applications. Four types of machine models are provided, including design, golden or certified, live, and scratch or simulated model. Provisions are also made for the use of multiple lattice modeling programs such as DIMAD, PARMELA, and TLIE. Design and implementation details are discussed. 2 refs., 4 figs

  1. Integral bubble and jet models with pressure forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vulfson, A. N.; Nikolaev, P. V.

    2017-07-01

    Modifications of integral bubble and jet models including the pressure force are proposed. Exact solutions are found for the modified model of a stationary convective jet from a point source of buoyancy and momentum. The exact solutions are compared against analytical solutions of the integral models for a stationary jet that are based on the approximation of the vertical boundary layer. It is found that the modified integral models of convective jets retain the power-law dependences on the altitude for the vertical velocity and buoyancy obtained in classical models. For a buoyant jet in a neutrally stratified atmosphere, the inclusion of the pressure force increases the amplitude of buoyancy and decreases the amplitude of vertical velocity. The total amplitude change is about 10%. It is shown that in this model there is a dynamic invariant expressing the law of a uniform distribution of the potential and kinetic energy along the jet axis. For a spontaneous jet rising in an unstably stratified atmosphere, the inclusion of the pressure force retains the amplitude of buoyancy and increases the amplitude of vertical velocity by about 15%. It is shown that in the model of a spontaneous jet there is a dynamic invariant expressing the law of a uniform distribution of the available potential and kinetic energy along the jet axis. The results are of interest for the problems of anthropogenic pollution diffusion in the air and water environments and the formulation of models for statistical and stochastic ensembles of thermals in a mass-flux parameterization of turbulent moments.

  2. Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

    2008-10-01

    Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

  3. A critical review of integrated urban water modelling – Urban drainage and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Peter M.; Rauch, Wolfgang; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    considerations (e.g. data issues, model structure, computational and integration-related aspects), common methodology for model development (through a systems approach), calibration/optimisation and uncertainty are discussed, placing importance on pragmatism and parsimony. Integrated urban water models should......Modelling interactions in urban drainage, water supply and broader integrated urban water systems has been conceptually and logistically challenging as evidenced in a diverse body of literature, found to be confusing and intimidating to new researchers. This review consolidates thirty years...... of research (initially driven by interest in urban drainage modelling) and critically reflects upon integrated modelling in the scope of urban water systems. We propose a typology to classify integrated urban water system models at one of four ‘degrees of integration’ (followed by its exemplification). Key...

  4. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  5. Conformal field theories, Coulomb gas picture and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuber, J.B.

    1988-01-01

    The aim of the study is to present the links between some results of conformal field theory, the conventional Coulomb gas picture in statistical mechanics and the approach of integrable models. It is shown that families of conformal theories, related by the coset construction to the SU(2) Kac-Moody algebra, may be regarded as obtained from some free field, and modified by the coupling of its winding numbers to floating charges. This representation reflects the procedure of restriction of the corresponding integrable lattice models. The work may be generalized to models based on the coset construction with higher rank algebras. The corresponding integrable models are identified. In the conformal field description, generalized parafermions appear, and are coupled to free fields living on a higher-dimensional torus. The analysis is not as exhaustive as in the SU(2) case: all the various restrictions have not been identified, nor the modular invariants completely classified

  6. Integrated city as a model for a new wave urban tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariani, V.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are a major player for an urban tourism destination. Massive tourism movement for urban tourism gains competitiveness to the city with similar characteristic. The new framework model for new wave urban tourism is crucial to give more experience to the tourist and valuing for the city itself. The integrated city is the answer for creating a new model for an urban tourism destination. The purpose of this preliminary research is to define integrated city framework for urban tourism development. It provides a rationale for tourism planner pursuing an innovative approach, competitive advantages, and general urban tourism destination model. The methodology applies to this research includes desk survey, literature review and focus group discussion. A conceptual framework is proposed, discussed and exemplified. The framework model adopts a place-based approach to tourism destination and suggests an integrated city model for urban tourism development. This model is a tool for strategy making in re-invention integrated city as an urban tourism destination.

  7. Paradox of integration-A computational model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, Małgorzata J.; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2017-02-01

    The paradoxical aspect of integration of a social group has been highlighted by Blau (1964). During the integration process, the group members simultaneously compete for social status and play the role of the audience. Here we show that when the competition prevails over the desire of approval, a sharp transition breaks all friendly relations. However, as was described by Blau, people with high status are inclined to bother more with acceptance of others; this is achieved by praising others and revealing her/his own weak points. In our model, this action smooths the transition and improves interpersonal relations.

  8. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  9. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  10. Modelling efficient innovative work: integration of economic and social psychological approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babanova Yulia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the relevance of integration of economic and social psychological approaches to the solution of enhancing the efficiency of innovation management. The content, features and specifics of the modelling methods within each of approaches are unfolded and options of integration are considered. The economic approach lies in the generation of the integrated matrix concept of management of innovative development of an enterprise in line with the stages of innovative work and the use of the integrated vector method for the evaluation of the innovative enterprise development level. The social psychological approach lies in the development of a system of psychodiagnostic indexes of activity resources within the scope of psychological innovative audit of enterprise management and development of modelling methods for the balance of activity trends. Modelling the activity resources is based on the system of equations accounting for the interaction type of psychodiagnostic indexes. Integration of two approaches includes a methodological level, a level of empirical studies and modelling methods. There are suggested options of integrating the economic and psychological approaches to analyze available material and non-material resources of the enterprises’ innovative work and to forecast an optimal option of development based on the implemented modelling methods.

  11. Comparison of two integration methods for dynamic causal modeling of electrophysiological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaréchal, Jean-Didier; George, Nathalie; David, Olivier

    2018-06-01

    Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a methodological approach to study effective connectivity among brain regions. Based on a set of observations and a biophysical model of brain interactions, DCM uses a Bayesian framework to estimate the posterior distribution of the free parameters of the model (e.g. modulation of connectivity) and infer architectural properties of the most plausible model (i.e. model selection). When modeling electrophysiological event-related responses, the estimation of the model relies on the integration of the system of delay differential equations (DDEs) that describe the dynamics of the system. In this technical note, we compared two numerical schemes for the integration of DDEs. The first, and standard, scheme approximates the DDEs (more precisely, the state of the system, with respect to conduction delays among brain regions) using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and solves it with a fixed step size. The second scheme uses a dedicated DDEs solver with adaptive step sizes to control error, making it theoretically more accurate. To highlight the effects of the approximation used by the first integration scheme in regard to parameter estimation and Bayesian model selection, we performed simulations of local field potentials using first, a simple model comprising 2 regions and second, a more complex model comprising 6 regions. In these simulations, the second integration scheme served as the standard to which the first one was compared. Then, the performances of the two integration schemes were directly compared by fitting a public mismatch negativity EEG dataset with different models. The simulations revealed that the use of the standard DCM integration scheme was acceptable for Bayesian model selection but underestimated the connectivity parameters and did not allow an accurate estimation of conduction delays. Fitting to empirical data showed that the models systematically obtained an increased accuracy when using the second

  12. Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

    2012-12-01

    As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems

  13. Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

    2012-12-01

    A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  14. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  15. Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

  16. Integration of population census and water point mapping data-A case study of Cambodia, Liberia and Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Weiyu; Wardrop, Nicola A; Bain, Robert; Wright, Jim A

    2017-07-01

    Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 has expanded the Millennium Development Goals' focus from improved drinking-water to safely managed water services. This expanded focus to include issues such as water quality requires richer monitoring data and potentially integration of datasets from different sources. Relevant data sets include water point mapping (WPM), the survey of boreholes, wells and other water points, census and household survey data. This study examined inconsistencies between population census and WPM datasets for Cambodia, Liberia and Tanzania, and identified potential barriers to integrating the two datasets to meet monitoring needs. Literatures on numbers of people served per water point were used to convert WPM data to population served by water source type per area and compared with census reports. For Cambodia and Tanzania, discrepancies with census data suggested incomplete WPM coverage. In Liberia, where the data sets were consistent, WPM-derived data on functionality, quantity and quality of drinking water were further combined with census area statistics to generate an enhanced drinking-water access measure for protected wells and springs. The process revealed barriers to integrating census and WPM data, including exclusion of water points not used for drinking by households, matching of census and WPM source types; temporal mismatches between data sources; data quality issues such as missing or implausible data values, and underlying assumptions about population served by different water point technologies. However, integration of these two data sets could be used to identify and rectify gaps in WPM coverage. If WPM databases become more complete and the above barriers are addressed, it could also be used to develop more realistic measures of household drinking-water access for monitoring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  17. [An integrated theory of natural control of animal populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtfeger, F

    1968-11-01

    Since the twenties of our century, at least 15 theories worth discussing have been developped which intend to explain the causes of natural control of animal populations (for details see SCHWERDTFEGER, 1968). An attempt is made to integrate the different-partly contrary-ideas and new results into a general theory. The basis to start from is the cybernetic principle of feed-back mechanism introduced into population dynamics by WILBERT (1962): an actual value (e.g. the inside temperature of a refrigerator) is permanently changed by perturbances (the always higher outside temperature); through a regulator (a thermostat), each change puts in action a regulating variable (a cooling device) which alters the actual towards the index value (required inside temperature).The often complicated processes that take part in the natural control of populations are summarized in Fig. 6. The actual value is the existing population density (Abundanz). The perturbances primarily causing its fluctuations (Fluktuation) are fertility and immigration which raise the abundance, mortality and emigration which lower it.The amplitude of the fluctuation must be limited, if the population is not to die out or to destroy its habitat by continuous increase. It is determined (Determination) as a sort of index value, the lower limit of which corresponds in the extreme to the minimal density guaranteeing the existence of the population, while the upper limit is formed by the environmental capacity. The latter is determined either by the total supply of requisites and the ability of the animals to use it or by the local minimum of adverse effects. The capacity of the environment and therewith the amplitude of fluctuations can be fixed or variable. It is fixed in a population of Great Tits with territorial behaviour: in an oak stand, the number of breeding pairs cannot be higher than the number of territories fitting in. It is variable in the case of bark beetles living in wind thrown spruce trees

  18. Integration of dynamical data in a geostatistical model of reservoir; Integration des donnees dynamiques dans un modele geostatistique de reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa Reis, L.

    2001-01-01

    We have developed in this thesis a methodology of integrated characterization of heterogeneous reservoirs, from geologic modeling to history matching. This methodology is applied to the reservoir PBR, situated in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil, which has been producing since June 1979. This work is an extension of two other thesis concerning geologic and geostatistical modeling of the reservoir PBR from well data and seismic information. We extended the geostatistical litho-type model to the whole reservoir by using a particular approach of the non-stationary truncated Gaussian simulation method. This approach facilitated the application of the gradual deformation method to history matching. The main stages of the methodology for dynamic data integration in a geostatistical reservoir model are presented. We constructed a reservoir model and the initial difficulties in the history matching led us to modify some choices in the geological, geostatistical and flow models. These difficulties show the importance of dynamic data integration in reservoir modeling. The petrophysical property assignment within the litho-types was done by using well test data. We used an inversion procedure to evaluate the petrophysical parameters of the litho-types. The up-scaling is a necessary stage to reduce the flow simulation time. We compared several up-scaling methods and we show that the passage from the fine geostatistical model to the coarse flow model should be done very carefully. The choice of the fitting parameter depends on the objective of the study. In the case of the reservoir PBR, where water is injected in order to improve the oil recovery, the water rate of the producing wells is directly related to the reservoir heterogeneity. Thus, the water rate was chosen as the fitting parameter. We obtained significant improvements in the history matching of the reservoir PBR. First, by using a method we have proposed, called patchwork. This method allows us to built a coherent

  19. Typological and Integrative Models of Sexual Abuse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demidova L.Y.,

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We discuss the basic typological and integrative theoretical models that explain the occurrence of child sexual abuse and the differences detected among the perpetrators of crimes against sexual integrity of minors. A comprehensive review of the theoretical concepts of sexual abuse in our country, in fact has not been carried out, and in this paper for the first time we made such an attempt. It is shown that the existing notions of sexual abuse largely overlap each other, but each of the models somehow takes into account the factors not explicitly addressed in other concepts. Systematic consideration of the theoretical models of sexual abuse can generalize and systematize the available data on the mechanisms of pedophile behavior. This review provides an opportunity to develop a new benchmark in the study of sexual abuse, get closer to building the most accurate and comprehensive model. In turn, this may contribute to solving the questions about the factors, dynamics, and the prevention of criminal sexual conduct against children

  20. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

  1. Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

    2011-01-01

    An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

  2. Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

    -mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

  3. Development of an Integrated Nonlinear Aeroservoelastic Flight Dynamic Model of the NASA Generic Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan; Ting, Eric

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a recent development of an integrated fully coupled aeroservoelastic flight dynamic model of the NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM). The integrated model couples nonlinear flight dynamics to a nonlinear aeroelastic model of the GTM. The nonlinearity includes the coupling of the rigid-body aircraft states in the partial derivatives of the aeroelastic angle of attack. Aeroservoelastic modeling of the control surfaces which are modeled by the Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap is also conducted. The R.T. Jones' method is implemented to approximate unsteady aerodynamics. Simulations of the GTM are conducted with simulated continuous and discrete gust loads..

  4. Pedagogic process modeling: Humanistic-integrative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boritko Nikolaj M.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with some current problems of modeling the dynamics of the subject-features development of the individual. The term "process" is considered in the context of the humanistic-integrative approach, in which the principles of self education are regarded as criteria for efficient pedagogic activity. Four basic characteristics of the pedagogic process are pointed out: intentionality reflects logicality and regularity of the development of the process; discreteness (stageability in dicates qualitative stages through which the pedagogic phenomenon passes; nonlinearity explains the crisis character of pedagogic processes and reveals inner factors of self-development; situationality requires a selection of pedagogic conditions in accordance with the inner factors, which would enable steering the pedagogic process. Offered are two steps for singling out a particular stage and the algorithm for developing an integrative model for it. The suggested conclusions might be of use for further theoretic research, analyses of educational practices and for realistic predicting of pedagogical phenomena. .

  5. The mercury burden of the Czech population: An integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puklová, Vladimíra; Krsková, Andrea; Cerná, Milena; Cejchanová, Mája; Rehůrková, Irena; Ruprich, Jirí; Kratzer, Karel; Kubínová, Růzena; Zimová, Magdaléna

    2010-07-01

    In this paper an integrated approach in assessment of the population exposure from various sources of total mercury (THg) oral intake in the Czech Republic is presented. The information on total mercury levels in diet, drinking water, surface urban soil and body fluids and tissues stem from the Czech national Environmental Health Monitoring System (EHMS) operated since 1994. The THg concentration was determined by the special atomic absorption spectrophotometer AMA 254. The data on THg content in food from the sales network were collected in 12 cities. The estimated average dietary intake representing more than 95% of weight of usual diet composition ranged 1-2% of the JECFA/FAO WHO provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) value for total mercury (5 microg/kg b.w./week). Data on drinking water quality stem from the nationwide monitoring database. The content of THg in drinking water is generally low; only 0.2% of the Czech population supplied with drinking water from the distribution networks (total of 92% of the population) has a mercury intake from drinking water higher than 1% PTWI and not exceeding 5% PTWI. The estimation of potential mercury intake by unintentional consumption of soil in small children was based on THg content in surface soil of a total of 324 nursery schools in 24 cities and towns. Median value was 0.16 mg/kg. Human biomonitoring was performed in 9 Czech cities. In 2007, the mercury median values in blood of adults (N=412) were 0.85 and 0.89 microg/l in males and in females, respectively; urine median value in adults was 1.10 microg/g creatinine. In 2008, the blood median value in children (N=324) amounted to 0.35 microg/l; urine median value is 0.16 microg/g creatinine. In children's hair the median THg value was 0.18 microg/g. The correlation between fish consumption and blood THg levels was observed in both adults and children. Also the biomonitoring outputs did not reveal a substantial burden of the population. Copyright 2010 Elsevier

  6. Phase transitions in a lattice population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

    2007-01-01

    We introduce a model for a population on a lattice with diffusion and birth/death according to 2A→3A and A→Φ for a particle A. We find that the model displays a phase transition from an active to an absorbing state which is continuous in 1 + 1 dimensions and of first-order in higher dimensions in agreement with the mean field equation. For the (1 + 1)-dimensional case, we examine the critical exponents and a scaling function for the survival probability and show that it belongs to the universality class of directed percolation. In higher dimensions, we look at the first-order phase transition by plotting a histogram of the population density and use the presence of phase coexistence to find an accurate value for the critical point in 2 + 1 dimensions

  7. Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M

    2018-01-01

    Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.

  8. Integrated modelling of crop production and nitrate leaching with the Daisy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manevski, Kiril; Børgesen, Christen D; Li, Xiaoxin; Andersen, Mathias N; Abrahamsen, Per; Hu, Chunsheng; Hansen, Søren

    2016-01-01

    An integrated modelling strategy was designed and applied to the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model Daisy for simulation of crop production and nitrate leaching under pedo-climatic and agronomic environment different than that of model original parameterisation. The points of significance and caution in the strategy are: •Model preparation should include field data in detail due to the high complexity of the soil and the crop processes simulated with process-based model, and should reflect the study objectives. Inclusion of interactions between parameters in a sensitivity analysis results in better account for impacts on outputs of measured variables.•Model evaluation on several independent data sets increases robustness, at least on coarser time scales such as month or year. It produces a valuable platform for adaptation of the model to new crops or for the improvement of the existing parameters set. On daily time scale, validation for highly dynamic variables such as soil water transport remains challenging. •Model application is demonstrated with relevance for scientists and regional managers. The integrated modelling strategy is applicable for other process-based models similar to Daisy. It is envisaged that the strategy establishes model capability as a useful research/decision-making, and it increases knowledge transferability, reproducibility and traceability.

  9. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  10. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Joseph W.; Friedlander, David; Kopasakis, George

    2015-01-01

    This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

  11. Mechanisms for integration of information models across related domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Rob

    2010-05-01

    It is well recognised that there are opportunities and challenges in cross-disciplinary data integration. A significant barrier, however, is creating a conceptual model of the combined domains and the area of integration. For example, a groundwater domain application may require information from several related domains: geology, hydrology, water policy, etc. Each domain may have its own data holdings and conceptual models, but these will share various common concepts (eg. The concept of an aquifer). These areas of semantic overlap present significant challenges, firstly to choose a single representation (model) of a concept that appears in multiple disparate models,, then to harmonise these other models with the single representation. In addition, models may exist at different levels of abstraction depending on how closely aligned they are with a particular implementation. This makes it hard for modellers in one domain to introduce elements from another domain without either introducing a specific style of implementation, or conversely dealing with a set of abstract patterns that are hard to integrate with existing implementations. Models are easier to integrate if they are broken down into small units, with common concepts implemented using common models from well-known, and predictably managed shared libraries. This vision however requires development of a set of mechanisms (tools and procedures) for implementing and exploiting libraries of model components. These mechanisms need to handle publication, discovery, subscription, versioning and implementation of models in different forms. In this presentation a coherent suite of such mechanisms is proposed, using a scenario based on re-use of geosciences models. This approach forms the basis of a comprehensive strategy to empower domain modellers to create more interoperable systems. The strategy address a range of concerns and practice, and includes methodologies, an accessible toolkit, improvements to available

  12. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

  13. Eradicating Barriers to Mental Health Care Through Integrated Service Models: Contemporary Perspectives for Psychiatric-Mental Health Nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Horace; Alexander, Vinette

    2016-06-01

    There has been renewed, global interest in developing new and transformative models of facilitating access to high-quality, cost-effective, and individually-centered health care for severe mentally-ill (SMI) persons of diverse racial/ethnic, cultural and socioeconomic backgrounds. However, in our present-day health-service delivery systems, scholars have identified layers of barriers to widespread dispersal of well-needed mental health care both nationally and internationally. It is crucial that contemporary models directed at eradicating barriers to mental health services are interdisciplinary in context, design, scope, sequence, and best-practice standards. Contextually, nurses are well-positioned to influence the incorporation and integration of new concepts into operationally interdisciplinary, evidence-based care models with measurable outcomes. The aim of this concept paper is to use the available evidence to contextually explicate how the blended roles of psychiatric mental health (PMH) nursing can be influential in eradicating barriers to care and services for SMI persons through the integrated principles of collaboration, integration and service expansion across health, socioeconomic, and community systems. A large body of literature proposes that any best-practice standards aimed at eliminating barriers to the health care needs of SMI persons require systematic, well-coordinated interdisciplinary partnerships through evidence-based, high-quality, person-centered, and outcome-driven processes. Transforming the conceptual models of collaboration, integration and service expansion could be revolutionary in how care and services are coordinated and dispersed to populations across disadvantaged communities. Building on their longstanding commitment to individual and community care approaches, and their pivotal roles in research, education, leadership, practice, and legislative processes; PMH nurses are well-positioned to be both influential and instrumental in

  14. Designing the Distributed Model Integration Framework – DMIF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Morales, Javier

    2017-01-01

    We describe and discuss the design and prototype of the Distributed Model Integration Framework (DMIF) that links models deployed on different hardware and software platforms. We used distributed computing and service-oriented development approaches to address the different aspects of

  15. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  16. Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  17. Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-01-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes

  18. INTEGRATED COST MODEL FOR IMPROVING THE PRODUCTION IN COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Hajduova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: All processes in the company play important role in ensuring functional integrated management system. We point out the importance of need for a systematic approach to the use of quantitative, but especially statistical methods for modelling the cost of the improvement activities that are part of an integrated management system. Development of integrated management systems worldwide leads towards building of systematic procedures of implementation maintenance and improvement of all systems according to the requirements of all the sides involved.Methodology: Statistical evaluation of the economic indicators of improvement costs and the need for a systematic approach to their management in terms of integrated management systems have become a key role also in the management of processes in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. The aim of this publication is to highlight the importance of proper implementation of statistical methods in the process of improvement costs management in the integrated management system of current market conditions and document the legitimacy of a systematic approach in the area of monitoring and analysing indicators of improvement with the aim of the efficient process management of company. We provide specific example of the implementation of appropriate statistical methods in the production of copper wire in a company Cu Drôt, a.s. This publication also aims to create a model for the estimation of integrated improvement costs, which through the use of statistical methods in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. is used to support decision-making on improving efficiency.Findings: In the present publication, a method for modelling the improvement process, by an integrated manner, is proposed. It is a method in which the basic attributes of the improvement in quality, safety and environment are considered and synergistically combined in the same improvement project. The work examines the use of sophisticated quantitative, especially

  19. Dynamical analysis of a model of social behavior: Criminal vs non-criminal population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbas, Syed; Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Neha, A.A.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new social model of interaction between criminal and non-criminal population is proposed • The effect of law enforcement is studied • Many real life situations are analyzed • List of open problems is given for future work. - Abstract: In this paper, we construct a model motivated by the well known predator-prey model to study the interaction between criminal population and non-criminal population. Our aim is to study various possibilities of interactions between them. First we model it using simple predator-prey model, then we modify it by considering the logistic growth of non-criminal population. We clearly deduce that the model with logistic growth is better than classical one. More precisely, the role of carrying capacity on the dynamics of criminal minded population is discussed. Further, we incorporate law enforcement term in the model and study its effect. The result obtained suggest that by incorporating enforcement law, the criminal population reduces from the very beginning, which resembles with real life situation. Our result indicates that the criminal minded population exist as long as coefficient of enforcement l_c does not cross a threshold value and after this value the criminal minded population extinct. In addition, we also discuss the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcation in case of model system with law enforcement. Numerical examples and simulations are presented to illustrate the obtained results.

  20. Automating an integrated spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri; Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Aziz, Hamidi Abdul

    2017-10-01

    An integrated programming environment represents a robust approach to building a valid model for landfill site selection. One of the main challenges in the integrated model is the complicated processing and modelling due to the programming stages and several limitations. An automation process helps avoid the limitations and improve the interoperability between integrated programming environments. This work targets the automation of a spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection by integrating between spatial programming environment (Python-ArcGIS) and non-spatial environment (MATLAB). The model was constructed using neural networks and is divided into nine stages distributed between Matlab and Python-ArcGIS. A case study was taken from the north part of Peninsular Malaysia. 22 criteria were selected to utilise as input data and to build the training and testing datasets. The outcomes show a high-performance accuracy percentage of 98.2% in the testing dataset using 10-fold cross validation. The automated spatial data mining model provides a solid platform for decision makers to performing landfill site selection and planning operations on a regional scale.

  1. Integrated Krill Model WG-SAM-14/20

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The integrated modeling framework for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has been extended to include estimates of krill growth consistent with survey data and to...

  2. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up cha...

  3. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics, as given by Haldane, allows for a statistical interaction between distinguishable particles (multi-species statistics). The thermodynamic quantities for such statistics ca be evaluated exactly. The explicit expressions for the cluster coefficients are presented. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence onto the higher-dimensional and the multi-species cases remain essentially open

  4. Towards integrated solutions for water, energy, and land using an integrated nexus modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Humanity has already reached or even exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. Growing needs for food, energy and water will only exacerbate existing challenges over the next decades. Consequently, the acceptance of "business as usual" is eroding and we are being challenged to adopt new, more integrated, and more inclusive development pathways that avoid dangerous interference with the local environment and global planetary boundaries. This challenge is embodied in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which endeavor to set a global agenda for moving towards more sustainable development strategies. To improve and sustain human welfare, it is critical that access to modern, reliable, and affordable water, energy, and food is expanded and maintained. The Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL) project has been launched by IIASA, together with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). This project focuses on the water-energy-land nexus in the context of other major global challenges such as urbanization, environmental degradation, and equitable and sustainable futures. It develops a consistent framework for looking at the water-energy-land nexus and identify strategies for achieving the needed transformational outcomes through an advanced assessment framework. A multi-scalar approach are being developed that aims to combine global and regional integrated assessment tools with local stakeholder knowledge in order to identify robust solutions to energy, water, food, and ecosystem security in selected regions of the world. These are regions facing multiple energy, water and land use challenges and rapid demographic and economic changes, and are hardest hit by increasing climate variability and change. This project combines the global integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) with the global land (GLOBIOM) and water (Community Water Model) model respectively, and the integrated

  5. Applying the Health Belief Model and an Integrated Behavioral Model to Promote Breast Tissue Donation Among Asian Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Autumn; Kaufhold, Kelly; Luo, Yunjuan

    2018-07-01

    An important part in the effort to prevent, treat, and cure breast cancer is research done with healthy breast tissue. The Susan G. Komen for the Cure Tissue Bank at Indiana University Simon Cancer Center (KTB) encourages women to donate a small amount of healthy breast tissue and then provides that tissue to researchers studying breast cancer. Although KTB has a large donor base, the volume of tissue samples from Asian women is low despite prior marketing efforts to encourage donation among this population. This study builds on prior work promoting breast cancer screenings among Asian women by applying constructs from the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Integrated Behavioral Model (IBM) to investigate why Asian-American women are less inclined to donate their healthy breast tissue than non-Asian women and how this population may be motivated to donate in the future. A national online survey (N = 1,317) found Asian women had significantly lower perceived severity, some lower perceived benefits, and higher perceived barriers to tissue donation than non-Asian women under HBM and significantly lower injunctive norms supporting breast tissue donation, lower perceived behavioral control, and lower intentions to donate under IBM. This study also compares and discusses similarities and differences among East, Southeast, and South Asian women on these same constructs.

  6. Integrating Cellular Metabolism into a Multiscale Whole-Body Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Markus; Schaller, Stephan; Borchers, Steffen; Findeisen, Rolf; Lippert, Jörg; Kuepfer, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Cellular metabolism continuously processes an enormous range of external compounds into endogenous metabolites and is as such a key element in human physiology. The multifaceted physiological role of the metabolic network fulfilling the catalytic conversions can only be fully understood from a whole-body perspective where the causal interplay of the metabolic states of individual cells, the surrounding tissue and the whole organism are simultaneously considered. We here present an approach relying on dynamic flux balance analysis that allows the integration of metabolic networks at the cellular scale into standardized physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models at the whole-body level. To evaluate our approach we integrated a genome-scale network reconstruction of a human hepatocyte into the liver tissue of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of a human adult. The resulting multiscale model was used to investigate hyperuricemia therapy, ammonia detoxification and paracetamol-induced toxication at a systems level. The specific models simultaneously integrate multiple layers of biological organization and offer mechanistic insights into pathology and medication. The approach presented may in future support a mechanistic understanding in diagnostics and drug development. PMID:23133351

  7. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  8. Integrating Identity Management With Federated Healthcare Data Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jun; Peyton, Liam

    In order to manage performance and provide integrated services, health care data needs to be linked and aggregated across data sources from different organizations. The Internet and secure B2B networks offer the possibility of providing near real-time integration. However, there are three major stumbling blocks. One is to standardize and agree upon a common data model across organizations. The second is to match identities between different locations in order to link and aggregate records. The third is to protect identity and ensure compliance with privacy laws. In this paper, we analyze three main approaches to the problem and use a healthcare scenario to illustrate how each one addresses different aspects of the problem while failing to address others. We then present a systematic framework in which the different approaches can be flexibly combined for a more comprehensive approach to integrate identity management with federated healthcare data models.

  9. The Model of Integrated Marketing Communication: Who has the Role to Influence Consumer Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olimpia Elena Mihaela Oancea

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is proposes a theoretical framework to investigate the models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour, and the development a model of integrated marketing communication. The research goals aim the following aspects: (a The analyze of the IMC concept; (b Identifying and analyzing the main models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour; (c Identifying the variables that will be included in the conceptual model of integrated marketing communication proposed. A review of the integrated marketing communication literature show the fact that were developed a series models of integrated marketing communication which has the role to influence the consumer buying behavior, but these not capture the correlation between the following factors: sociological variables, external stimuli, integrated marketing communication and consumer behavior. The method used was the secondary research in order to fulfill the research objectives established. The major result of this paper consists in proposing of a new conceptual model of integrated marketing communication that captures the correlation between external stimuli - sociological variables - integrated marketing communication - consumer behavior.

  10. Integrated water flow model and modflow-farm process: A comparison of theory, approaches, and features of two integrated hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogrul, Emin C.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Kadir, Tariq; Chung, Francis

    2016-01-01

    Effective modeling of conjunctive use of surface and subsurface water resources requires simulation of land use-based root zone and surface flow processes as well as groundwater flows, streamflows, and their interactions. Recently, two computer models developed for this purpose, the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) from the California Department of Water Resources and the MODFLOW with Farm Process (MF-FMP) from the US Geological Survey, have been applied to complex basins such as the Central Valley of California. As both IWFM and MFFMP are publicly available for download and can be applied to other basins, there is a need to objectively compare the main approaches and features used in both models. This paper compares the concepts, as well as the method and simulation features of each hydrologic model pertaining to groundwater, surface water, and landscape processes. The comparison is focused on the integrated simulation of water demand and supply, water use, and the flow between coupled hydrologic processes. The differences in the capabilities and features of these two models could affect the outcome and types of water resource problems that can be simulated.

  11. Organization, maturation and plasticity of multisensory integration: Insights from computational modelling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano eCuppini

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present two neural network models - devoted to two specific and widely investigated aspects of multisensory integration - in order to evidence the potentialities of computational models to gain insight into the neural mechanisms underlying organization, development and plasticity of multisensory integration in the brain. The first model considers visual-auditory interaction in a midbrain structure named Superior Colliculus (SC. The model is able to reproduce and explain the main physiological features of multisensory integration in SC neurons and to describe how SC integrative capability – not present at birth - develops gradually during postnatal life depending on sensory experience with cross-modal stimuli. The second model tackles the problem of how tactile stimuli on a body part and visual (or auditory stimuli close to the same body part are integrated in multimodal parietal neurons to form the perception of peripersonal (i.e., near space. The model investigates how the extension of peripersonal space - where multimodal integration occurs - may be modified by experience such as use of a tool to interact with the far space. The utility of the modelling approach relies on several aspects: i The two models, although devoted to different problems and simulating different brain regions, share some common mechanisms (lateral inhibition and excitation, non-linear neuron characteristics, recurrent connections, competition, Hebbian rules of potentiation and depression that may govern more generally the fusion of senses in the brain, and the learning and plasticity of multisensory integration. ii The models may help interpretation of behavioural and psychophysical responses in terms of neural activity and synaptic connections. iii The models can make testable predictions that can help guiding future experiments in order to validate, reject, or modify the main assumptions.

  12. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  13. Substantiating the Conceptual Model of Branding of the Integrated Business Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nifatova Olena M.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at researching the theoretical foundations of the concept of branding and forming a conceptual model of branding of the integrated business structures. The concept of branding of IBS is systematized and synthesized by three directions: overview of theories of management of integrated business structures, based on the principle of economic integration; overview of the brand management models based on the principle of brand-oriented management; overview of management approaches, the essence of which is synthesized in the aspect of application to the management of brands of the integrated business structures. Special attention is paid to the factors influencing the efficiency of the process of integration of business structures. Further development of modelling the process of integration branding in the IBS system is of great importance, as the brands of two unifying companies usually have their own identities, unique features within the terms of formation of the brand’s style and philosophy. In such a fundamental issue it is necessary to define the strategy of brand integration, i.e. whether it will be a single brand, a joint brand, a flexible brand or a completely new one.

  14. The early maximum likelihood estimation model of audiovisual integration in speech perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    integration to speech perception along with three model variations. In early MLE, integration is based on a continuous internal representation before categorization, which can make the model more parsimonious by imposing constraints that reflect experimental designs. The study also shows that cross......Speech perception is facilitated by seeing the articulatory mouth movements of the talker. This is due to perceptual audiovisual integration, which also causes the McGurk−MacDonald illusion, and for which a comprehensive computational account is still lacking. Decades of research have largely......-validation can evaluate models of audiovisual integration based on typical data sets taking both goodness-of-fit and model flexibility into account. All models were tested on a published data set previously used for testing the FLMP. Cross-validation favored the early MLE while more conventional error measures...

  15. DIDEM - An integrated model for comparative health damage costs calculation of air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravina, Marco; Panepinto, Deborah; Zanetti, Maria Chiara

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution represents a continuous hazard to human health. Administration, companies and population need efficient indicators of the possible effects given by a change in decision, strategy or habit. The monetary quantification of health effects of air pollution through the definition of external costs is increasingly recognized as a useful indicator to support decision and information at all levels. The development of modelling tools for the calculation of external costs can provide support to analysts in the development of consistent and comparable assessments. In this paper, the DIATI Dispersion and Externalities Model (DIDEM) is presented. The DIDEM model calculates the delta-external costs of air pollution comparing two alternative emission scenarios. This tool integrates CALPUFF's advanced dispersion modelling with the latest WHO recommendations on concentration-response functions. The model is based on the impact pathway method. It was designed to work with a fine spatial resolution and a local or national geographic scope. The modular structure allows users to input their own data sets. The DIDEM model was tested on a real case study, represented by a comparative analysis of the district heating system in Turin, Italy. Additional advantages and drawbacks of the tool are discussed in the paper. A comparison with other existing models worldwide is reported.

  16. A new stellar spectrum interpolation algorithm and its application to Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Liantao; Zhang, Fenghui; Kang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Lang

    2018-05-01

    In evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models, we need to convert stellar evolutionary parameters into spectra via interpolation in a stellar spectral library. For theoretical stellar spectral libraries, the spectrum grid is homogeneous on the effective-temperature and gravity plane for a given metallicity. It is relatively easy to derive stellar spectra. For empirical stellar spectral libraries, stellar parameters are irregularly distributed and the interpolation algorithm is relatively complicated. In those EPS models that use empirical stellar spectral libraries, different algorithms are used and the codes are often not released. Moreover, these algorithms are often complicated. In this work, based on a radial basis function (RBF) network, we present a new spectrum interpolation algorithm and its code. Compared with the other interpolation algorithms that are used in EPS models, it can be easily understood and is highly efficient in terms of computation. The code is written in MATLAB scripts and can be used on any computer system. Using it, we can obtain the interpolated spectra from a library or a combination of libraries. We apply this algorithm to several stellar spectral libraries (such as MILES, ELODIE-3.1 and STELIB-3.2) and give the integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of stellar populations (with ages from 1 Myr to 14 Gyr) by combining them with Yunnan-III isochrones. Our results show that the differences caused by the adoption of different EPS model components are less than 0.2 dex. All data about the stellar population ISEDs in this work and the RBF spectrum interpolation code can be obtained by request from the first author or downloaded from http://www1.ynao.ac.cn/˜zhangfh.

  17. Integrating school-based and therapeutic conflict management models at schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Oosterlinck, Franky; Broekaert, Eric

    2003-08-01

    Including children with emotional and behavioral needs in mainstream school systems leads to growing concern about the increasing number of violent and nonviolent conflicts. Schools must adapt to this evolution and adopt a more therapeutic dimension. This paper explores the possibility of integrating school-based and therapeutic conflict management models and compares two management models: a school-based conflict management program. Teaching Students To Be Peacemakers; and a therapeutic conflict management program, Life Space Crisis Intervention. The authors conclude that integration might be possible, but depends on establishing a positive school atmosphere, the central position of the teacher, and collaborative and social learning for pupils. Further implementation of integrated conflict management models can be considered but must be underpinned by appropriate scientific research.

  18. A probabilistic model for cell population phenotyping using HCS data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edouard Pauwels

    Full Text Available High Content Screening (HCS platforms allow screening living cells under a wide range of experimental conditions and give access to a whole panel of cellular responses to a specific treatment. The outcome is a series of cell population images. Within these images, the heterogeneity of cellular response to the same treatment leads to a whole range of observed values for the recorded cellular features. Consequently, it is difficult to compare and interpret experiments. Moreover, the definition of phenotypic classes at a cell population level remains an open question, although this would ease experiments analyses. In the present work, we tackle these two questions. The input of the method is a series of cell population images for which segmentation and cellular phenotype classification has already been performed. We propose a probabilistic model to represent and later compare cell populations. The model is able to fully exploit the HCS-specific information: "dependence structure of population descriptors" and "within-population variability". The experiments we carried out illustrate how our model accounts for this specific information, as well as the fact that the model benefits from considering them. We underline that these features allow richer HCS data analysis than simpler methods based on single cellular feature values averaged over each well. We validate an HCS data analysis method based on control experiments. It accounts for HCS specificities that were not taken into account by previous methods but have a sound biological meaning. Biological validation of previously unknown outputs of the method constitutes a future line of work.

  19. A Framework for Sharing and Integrating Remote Sensing and GIS Models Based on Web Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zeqiang; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Liu, Deer; Bao, Ying; Ding, Yulin

    2014-01-01

    Sharing and integrating Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System/Science (GIS) models are critical for developing practical application systems. Facilitating model sharing and model integration is a problem for model publishers and model users, respectively. To address this problem, a framework based on a Web service for sharing and integrating RS and GIS models is proposed in this paper. The fundamental idea of the framework is to publish heterogeneous RS and GIS models into standard Web services for sharing and interoperation and then to integrate the RS and GIS models using Web services. For the former, a “black box” and a visual method are employed to facilitate the publishing of the models as Web services. For the latter, model integration based on the geospatial workflow and semantic supported marching method is introduced. Under this framework, model sharing and integration is applied for developing the Pearl River Delta water environment monitoring system. The results show that the framework can facilitate model sharing and model integration for model publishers and model users. PMID:24901016

  20. A framework for sharing and integrating remote sensing and GIS models based on Web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zeqiang; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Liu, Deer; Bao, Ying; Ding, Yulin

    2014-01-01

    Sharing and integrating Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System/Science (GIS) models are critical for developing practical application systems. Facilitating model sharing and model integration is a problem for model publishers and model users, respectively. To address this problem, a framework based on a Web service for sharing and integrating RS and GIS models is proposed in this paper. The fundamental idea of the framework is to publish heterogeneous RS and GIS models into standard Web services for sharing and interoperation and then to integrate the RS and GIS models using Web services. For the former, a "black box" and a visual method are employed to facilitate the publishing of the models as Web services. For the latter, model integration based on the geospatial workflow and semantic supported marching method is introduced. Under this framework, model sharing and integration is applied for developing the Pearl River Delta water environment monitoring system. The results show that the framework can facilitate model sharing and model integration for model publishers and model users.