WorldWideScience

Sample records for integrated uncertainty options

  1. Application of RELAP/SCDAPSIM with integrated uncertainty options to research reactor systems thermal hydraulic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, C.M.; Hohorst, J.K.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.

    2010-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with advanced programming and numerical techniques and other SDTP-member modeling/user options. One such member developed option is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). This paper briefly summarizes the features of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 and the integrated uncertainty analysis package, and then presents an example of how the integrated uncertainty package can be setup and used for a simple pipe flow problem. (author)

  2. Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dupleac, D., E-mail: danieldu@cne.pub.ro [Politehnica Univ. of Bucharest (Romania); Perez, M.; Reventos, F., E-mail: marina.perez@upc.edu, E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu [Technical Univ. of Catalonia (Spain); Allison, C., E-mail: iss@cableone.net [Innovative Systems Software (United States)

    2011-07-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

  3. Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupleac, D.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Allison, C.

    2011-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

  4. Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

    works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

  5. Optimization of FRAP uncertainty analysis option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1979-10-01

    The automated uncertainty analysis option that has been incorporated in the FRAP codes (FRAP-T5 and FRAPCON-2) provides the user with a means of obtaining uncertainty bands on code predicted variables at user-selected times during a fuel pin analysis. These uncertainty bands are obtained by multiple single fuel pin analyses to generate data which can then be analyzed by second order statistical error propagation techniques. In this process, a considerable amount of data is generated and stored on tape. The user has certain choices to make regarding which independent variables are to be used in the analysis and what order of error propagation equation should be used in modeling the output response. To aid the user in these decisions, a computer program, ANALYZ, has been written and added to the uncertainty analysis option package. A variety of considerations involved in fitting response surface equations and certain pit-falls of which the user should be aware are discussed. An equation is derived expressing a residual as a function of a fitted model and an assumed true model. A variety of experimental design choices are discussed, including the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Finally, a description of the subcodes which constitute program ANALYZ is provided

  6. The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, James S.

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

  7. Real options and volume uncertainty by field development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekern, S.; Stensland, G.

    1993-12-01

    The report concerns a study on the use of option methodology in field development projects. The report shows how the value of flexibility in the different decision processes is to be found by means of real option methodology. Particular attention is laid on the uncertainty concerning the volume of reserves and production capacity. The results from the study were based on the research project dubbed ''Use of real options in field development projects''. The project is partially connected to another project dubbed ''Decisive behaviour and alternative action under uncertainty in the petroleum sector''. Main topics cover as follow: Example with volume uncertainty; real options and volume uncertainty; gradual disclosure of uncertainty in the production; value of flexible production equipment. 33 refs., 19 figs., 17 tabs

  8. Information-integration category learning and the human uncertainty response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Erick J; Boomer, Joseph; Smith, J David; Ashby, F Gregory

    2011-04-01

    The human response to uncertainty has been well studied in tasks requiring attention and declarative memory systems. However, uncertainty monitoring and control have not been studied in multi-dimensional, information-integration categorization tasks that rely on non-declarative procedural memory. Three experiments are described that investigated the human uncertainty response in such tasks. Experiment 1 showed that following standard categorization training, uncertainty responding was similar in information-integration tasks and rule-based tasks requiring declarative memory. In Experiment 2, however, uncertainty responding in untrained information-integration tasks impaired the ability of many participants to master those tasks. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that the deficit observed in Experiment 2 was not because of the uncertainty response option per se, but rather because the uncertainty response provided participants a mechanism via which to eliminate stimuli that were inconsistent with a simple declarative response strategy. These results are considered in the light of recent models of category learning and metacognition.

  9. Correlated uncertainties in integral data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCracken, A.K.

    1978-01-01

    The use of correlated uncertainties in calculational data is shown in cases investigated to lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of calculated quantities of importance to reactor design. It is stressed however that such reductions are likely to be important in a minority of cases of practical interest. The effect of uncertainties in detector cross-sections is considered and is seen to be, in some cases, of equal importance to that in the data used in calculations. Numerical investigations have been limited by the sparse information available on data correlations; some comparisons made of these data reveal quite large inconsistencies for both detector cross-sections and cross-section of interest for reactor calculations

  10. Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.

    2008-01-01

    Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties

  11. Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishtha Manocha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

  12. Using Options to Manage Dynamic Uncertainty in Acquisition Projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ceylan, B. K; Ford, David N

    2002-01-01

    Uncertainty in acquisition projects and environments can degrade performance. Traditional project planning, management tools, and methods can effectively deal with uncertainties in relatively stable environments...

  13. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  14. Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

    2004-01-01

    Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

  15. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  16. Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.

    2003-01-01

    Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

  17. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

  18. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

  19. Managing Uncertainty for an Integrated Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MB Hasan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates ways to deal with the uncertainties in fishing trawler scheduling and production planning in a quota-based integrated commercial fishery. A commercial fishery faces uncertainty mainly from variation in catch rate, which may be due to weather, and other environmental factors. The firm tries to manage this uncertainty through planning co-ordination of fishing trawler scheduling, catch quota, processing and labour allocation, and inventory control. Scheduling must necessarily be done over some finite planning horizon, and the trawler schedule itself introduces man-made variability, which in turn induces inventory in the processing plant. This induced inventory must be managed, complicated by the inability to plan easily beyond the current planning horizon. We develop a surprisingly simple innovation in inventory, which we have not seen in other papers on production management, which of requiring beginning inventory to equal ending inventory. This tool gives management a way to calculate a profit-maximizing safety stock that counter-acts the man-made variability due to the trawler scheduling. We found that the variability of catch rate had virtually no effects on the profitability with inventory. We report numerical results for several planning horizon models, based on data for a major New Zealand fishery.

  20. Uncertainties on hydrocarbon exploration assessments in both the absence and presence of optioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1998-01-01

    For hydrocarbon exploration opportunities a decision tree evaluation including variance in expected value leads to an extra uncertainty on the quality and worth of expected values as a decision device, due to both intrinsic uncertainties in success probability, assessed gains and assessed costs, and to the fact that the expected value is not one of the realizable outcomes. This paper shows how these uncertainty factors can be properly taken into account to provide a revised assessment of worth. In addition, a similar sense of logic prevails when options are considered for an opportunity. The uncertainty and success probability for an optional opportunity are also assessed in terms of the volatility of the maximum option worth. (author)

  1. Entry into the electricity market: Uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takashima, Ryuta [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan)], E-mail: takashima@n.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp; Goto, Makoto [Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8555 (Japan); Kimura, Hiroshi; Madarame, Haruki [Nuclear Professional School, University of Tokyo, 2-22 Shirane, Shirakata, Tokai-mura, Naka-Gun, Ibaraki-ken 319-1188 (Japan)

    2008-07-15

    The present paper analyzes the entry strategies into the electricity market of two firms that have power plants under price uncertainty and competition. We consider the symmetric and asymmetric two firms, which have either a thermal power plant or a nuclear power plant. The differences between the thermal power plant and the nuclear power plant, such as the cost structure and operational flexibility are modeled. The threshold values of market entry are calculated for each firm with either the thermal power plant or the nuclear power plant as the leader or the follower. We show the dependence of cost structures on entry thresholds of the leader and the follower into the electricity market. For various market and cost conditions, the diagrams of the leader are also shown.

  2. Entry into the electricity market: Uncertainty, competition, and mothballing options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takashima, Ryuta; Goto, Makoto; Kimura, Hiroshi; Madarame, Haruki

    2008-01-01

    The present paper analyzes the entry strategies into the electricity market of two firms that have power plants under price uncertainty and competition. We consider the symmetric and asymmetric two firms, which have either a thermal power plant or a nuclear power plant. The differences between the thermal power plant and the nuclear power plant, such as the cost structure and operational flexibility are modeled. The threshold values of market entry are calculated for each firm with either the thermal power plant or the nuclear power plant as the leader or the follower. We show the dependence of cost structures on entry thresholds of the leader and the follower into the electricity market. For various market and cost conditions, the diagrams of the leader are also shown

  3. Optimizing integrated airport surface and terminal airspace operations under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosson, Christabelle S.

    performed for the Los Angeles environment and probabilistic distributions of pertinent uncertainty sources are obtained. A sensitivity analysis is then carried out to assess the methodology performance and find optimal sampling parameters. Finally, simulations of increasing traffic density in the presence of uncertainty are conducted first for integrated arrivals and departures, then for integrated surface and air operations. To compare the optimization results and show the benefits of integrated operations, two aircraft separation methods are implemented that offer different routing options. The simulations of integrated air operations and the simulations of integrated air and surface operations demonstrate that significant traveling time savings, both total and individual surface and air times, can be obtained when more direct routes are allowed to be traveled even in the presence of uncertainty. The resulting routings induce however extra take off delay for departing flights. As a consequence, some flights cannot meet their initial assigned runway slot which engenders runway position shifting when comparing resulting runway sequences computed under both deterministic and stochastic conditions. The optimization is able to compute an optimal runway schedule that represents an optimal balance between total schedule delays and total travel times.

  4. Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

    2014-12-01

    Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. An Integrated Approach for Characterization of Uncertainty in Complex Best Estimate Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses an approach called Integrated Methodology for Thermal-Hydraulics Uncertainty Analysis (IMTHUA) to characterize and integrate a wide range of uncertainties associated with the best estimate models and complex system codes used for nuclear power plant safety analyses. Examples of applications include complex thermal hydraulic and fire analysis codes. In identifying and assessing uncertainties, the proposed methodology treats the complex code as a 'white box', thus explicitly treating internal sub-model uncertainties in addition to the uncertainties related to the inputs to the code. The methodology accounts for uncertainties related to experimental data used to develop such sub-models, and efficiently propagates all uncertainties during best estimate calculations. Uncertainties are formally analyzed and probabilistically treated using a Bayesian inference framework. This comprehensive approach presents the results in a form usable in most other safety analyses such as the probabilistic safety assessment. The code output results are further updated through additional Bayesian inference using any available experimental data, for example from thermal hydraulic integral test facilities. The approach includes provisions to account for uncertainties associated with user-specified options, for example for choices among alternative sub-models, or among several different correlations. Complex time-dependent best-estimate calculations are computationally intense. The paper presents approaches to minimize computational intensity during the uncertainty propagation. Finally, the paper will report effectiveness and practicality of the methodology with two applications to a complex thermal-hydraulics system code as well as a complex fire simulation code. In case of multiple alternative models, several techniques, including dynamic model switching, user-controlled model selection, and model mixing, are discussed. (authors)

  6. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to anthropogenic climate change in many regions of the world. The choice of adaptation strategies can and should be based on a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options...... presented is based on a flood risk framework that is in accordance with the EU flood directive, but adapted and extended to incorporate anticipated future changes due to city development and hydrologic extremes. The framework is used to study the importance of inherent uncertainties in order to find robust......-effective regardless of the uncertainties from climate change impacts and /or damage estimation procedure when considering the ability to reduce the risk of flooding. The description of the correlation structure between the key inputs proved to be important in order to obtain a correct description of the resulting...

  7. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  8. Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Sluijs, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

  9. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  10. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROCESS INTEGRATION FOR THE BIOREFINERIES DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meilyn González Cortés

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents how the design approaches with high level of flexibility can reduce the additional costs of the strategies that apply overdesign factors to consider parameters with uncertainty that impact on the economic feasibility of a project. The elements with associate uncertainties and that are important in the configurations of the process integration under a biorefinery scheme are: raw material, raw material technologies of conversion, and variety of products that can be obtained. From the analysis it is obtained that in the raw materials and products with potentialities in a biorefinery scheme, there are external uncertainties such as availability, demands and prices in the market. Those external uncertainties can determine their impact on the biorefinery and also in the product prices we can find minimum and maximum limits that can be identified in intervals which should be considered for the project economic evaluation and the sensibility analysis due to varied conditions.

  11. Integrated Library System (ILS): An Option for Library and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this paper is to review the capability of integrated library system as an option for managing library information resources using Koha ILS used at Babcock University as a case study. The paper is a review of the functions and performance of Koha ILS. It also includes personal experiences of librarians and the ...

  12. Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

  13. Integration of inaccurate data into model building and uncertainty assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleou, Thierry

    1998-12-31

    Model building can be seen as integrating numerous measurements and mapping through data points considered as exact. As the exact data set is usually sparse, using additional non-exact data improves the modelling and reduces the uncertainties. Several examples of non-exact data are discussed and a methodology to honor them in a single pass, along with the exact data is presented. This automatic procedure is valid for both ``base case`` model building and stochastic simulations for uncertainty analysis. 5 refs., 3 figs.

  14. Integrated model of Korean spent fuel and high level waste disposal options - 16091

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Yongsoo; Miller, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and reprocessing products in South Korea. A companion paper (Hwang and Miller, 2009) describes a systems-level model of Korean options for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management in the 21. century. The model addresses alternative design concepts for disposal of SNF of different types (Candu, PWR), high level waste, and fission products arising from a variety of alternative fuel cycle back ends. It uses the GoldSim software to simulate the engineered system, near-field and far-field geosphere, and biosphere, resulting in long-term dose predictions for a variety of receptor groups. The model's results allow direct comparison of alternative repository design concepts, and identification of key parameter uncertainties and contributors to receptor doses. (authors)

  15. Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina

    2017-05-01

    Public energy research and development (R&D) is recognized as a key policy tool for transforming the world's energy system in a cost-effective way. However, managing the uncertainty surrounding technological change is a critical challenge for designing robust and cost-effective energy policies. The design of such policies is particularly important if countries are going to both meet the ambitious greenhouse-gas emissions reductions goals set by the Paris Agreement and achieve the required harmonization with the broader set of objectives dictated by the Sustainable Development Goals. The complexity of informing energy technology policy requires, and is producing, a growing collaboration between different academic disciplines and practitioners. Three analytical components have emerged to support the integration of technological uncertainty into energy policy: expert elicitations, integrated assessment models, and decision frameworks. Here we review efforts to incorporate all three approaches to facilitate public energy R&D decision-making under uncertainty. We highlight emerging insights that are robust across elicitations, models, and frameworks, relating to the allocation of public R&D investments, and identify gaps and challenges that remain.

  16. An exploration of the option space in student design projects for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with performance simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struck, C.; Wilde, de P.J.C.J.; Hopfe, C.J.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted to gather empirical evidence on extent, character and content of the option space in building design projects, from the perspective of a climate engineer using building performance simulation for concept evaluation. The goal is to support uncertainty analysis

  17. Challenges and options for large scale integration of wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tande, John Olav Giaever

    2006-01-01

    Challenges and options for large scale integration of wind power are examined. Immediate challenges are related to weak grids. Assessment of system stability requires numerical simulation. Models are being developed - validation is essential. Coordination of wind and hydro generation is a key for allowing more wind power capacity in areas with limited transmission corridors. For the case study grid depending on technology and control the allowed wind farm size is increased from 50 to 200 MW. The real life example from 8 January 2005 demonstrates that existing marked based mechanisms can handle large amounts of wind power. In wind integration studies it is essential to take account of the controllability of modern wind farms, the power system flexibility and the smoothing effect of geographically dispersed wind farms. Modern wind farms contribute to system adequacy - combining wind and hydro constitutes a win-win system (ml)

  18. Energy options and the role of coal: an integrated approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaacs, E. [Alberta Energy Research Institute, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Considers energy goals and options with particular regard to providing affordable energy to Canada. Gasification of coal and carbon to provide a reliable source of clean power and heat to the oil sand industry and for feedstocks for the production of fertilizer, methanol, petrochemicals, and ultra-clean fuels is examined. The layout for integrated gasification polygeneration with carbon feed and plans for Canada's first commercial gasification plant (the Nexen Long Lake Project) are shown in diagrams. Progress in coal gasification at a clean coal Luscar/Sherritt pilot plant is outlined. Clean coal technology is part of a strategy to provide integration across energy systems, generate value for all hydrocarbon resources, and minimize emissions. 15 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  20. A Scheme for the Integrated Assessment of Mitigation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Edenhofer, O.

    2003-04-01

    After some consensus has been achieved that the global mean temperature will have increased by 1.4 to 5.8^oC at the end of this century in case of continued ``business as usual'' greenhouse gas emissions, society has to decide if or which mitigation measures should be taken. A new integrated assessment project on this very issue will be started at PIK in spring 2003. The assessment will cover economic aspects as well as potential side effects of various measures. In the economic module, the effects of investment decisions on technological innovation will be explicitly taken into account. Special emphasize will be put on the issue of uncertainty. Hereby we distinguish the uncertainty related to the Integrated Assessment modules, including the economic module, from the fact that no over-complex system can be fully captured by a model. Therefore, a scheme for the assessment of the ``residual'', the non-modelled part of the system, needs to be worked out. The scheme must be truly interdisciplinary, i.e. must be applicable to at least the natural science and the economic aspects. A scheme based on meta-principles like minimum persistence, ubiquity, or irreversibility of potential measures appears to be a promising candidate. An implementation of ubiquity as at present successfully operated in environmental chemistry may serve as a guideline [1]. Here, the best-known mechanism within a complex impact chain of potentially harmful chemicals, their transport, is captured by a reaction-diffusion mechanism [2]. begin{thebibliography}{0} bibitem{s} M. Scheringer, Persistence and spatial range as endpoints of an exposure-based assessment of organic chemicals. Environ. Sci. Technol. 30: 1652-1659 (1996). bibitem{h} H. Held, Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals with respect to model dimension, accepted for publication in Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assessment.

  1. Real Options Effect of Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Gabriel; Nguyen Thanh, Binh; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    This paper shows that uncertainty affects the housing market in two significant ways. First, uncertainty shocks adversely affect housing prices but not the quantities that are traded. Controlling for a broad set of variables in fixed-effects regressions, we find that uncertainty shocks reduce housing prices and median sales prices in the amount of 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, but the effect is not statistically significant for the percentage changes of all homes sold. Second, when...

  2. From Market Uncertainty to Policy Uncertainty for Investment in Power Generation: Real Options for NPP on Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, Zeljko

    2014-01-01

    In the electricity sector, market participants must make decisions about capacity choice in a situation of radical uncertainty about future market conditions. Sector is normally characterised by non-storability and periodic and stochastic demand fluctuations. In these cases capacity determination is a decision for the long term, whereas production is adjusted in the short run. Capacities need to be installed well in advance (decision for investment even earlier because of long construction time and even longer in case of NPP to prepare all needed legal, financial and physical infrastructure), at times when firms face considerable demand and cost uncertainty when choosing their capacity. Paper looks on the main contributions in investment planning under uncertainty, in particular in the electricity market for capital intensive investments like NPP. The relationship between market and non-market factors (recent UK policy example) in determining investment signals in competitive electricity markets was analysed. Paper analyse the ability of competitive electricity markets to deliver the desired quantity and type of generation capacity and also investigates the variety of market imperfections operating in electricity generation and their impact on long-term dynamics for generation capacity, the most capital-intensive of the liberalised functions in the electricity supply industry. Paper analyses how price formation influences investment signals. Today, investment decisions are made by several operators that act independently. Number of factors (including market power, wholesale price volatility, lack of liquidity in the wholesale and financial market, policy and regulatory risks etc.) contribute to polluting the price signal and generating sub-optimal behaviour. Climate change policies can easily distort market signals, insulating renewables generation from market dynamics. This in turn reduces the proportion of the market that is effectively opened to competitive

  3. A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The long-term economic outcome of energy-related industrial investment projects is difficult to evaluate because of uncertain energy market conditions. In this article, a general, multistage, stochastic programming model for the optimization of investments in process integration and industrial energy technologies is proposed. The problem is formulated as a mixed-binary linear programming model where uncertainties are modelled using a scenario-based approach. The objective is to maximize the expected net present value of the investments which enables heat savings and decreased energy imports or increased energy exports at an industrial plant. The proposed modelling approach enables a long-term planning of industrial, energy-related investments through the simultaneous optimization of immediate and later decisions. The stochastic programming approach is also suitable for modelling what is possibly complex process integration constraints. The general model formulation presented here is a suitable basis for more specialized case studies dealing with optimization of investments in energy efficiency. -- Highlights: → Stochastic programming approach to long-term planning of process integration investments. → Extensive mathematical model formulation. → Multi-stage investment decisions and scenario-based modelling of uncertain energy prices. → Results illustrate how investments made now affect later investment and operation opportunities. → Approach for evaluation of robustness with respect to variations in probability distribution.

  4. Resistance Economics of Transgenic Crops under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wesseler, J.H.H.

    2003-01-01

    The development of pest resistance is one of the many concerns about the long-term success of transgenic crops. This chapter discusses resistances as additional irreversible costs related to the release of transgenic crops. These irreversible costs, their uncertainty, and the uncertainty about

  5. A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, D.; Liu, X.

    2017-12-01

    3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

  6. Integrating energy and environmental goals. Investment needs and technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-04-01

    , since their shares of global energy demand and emissions are expected to grow rapidly. Over the next thirty years, developing countries are expected to account for 70% of the growth in global energy demand and for two-thirds of the growth in global emissions. Section six looks at some of the challenges regarding investment and energy access. Security of energy supply is an important component in the planning of future technology options, because long-term security calls for a balance between energy sources and technologies. Governments have a role to play in tipping this balance, and this role is examined in section seven. A final section examines the uncertainties and costs of various policy initiatives over the long term

  7. Economically optimal timing for crop disease control under uncertainty: an options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ndeffo Mbah, M.L.; Forster, G.; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Gilligan, C.A.

    2010-01-01

    Severe large-scale disease and pest infestations in agricultural regions can cause significant economic damage. Understanding if and when disease control measures should be taken in the presence of risk and uncertainty is a key issue. We develop a framework to examine the economically optimal timing

  8. Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in

  9. When autocratic leaders become an option--uncertainty and self-esteem predict implicit leadership preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoel, Christiane; Bluemke, Matthias; Mueller, Patrick; Stahlberg, Dagmar

    2011-09-01

    We investigated the impact of uncertainty on leadership preferences and propose that the conjunction of self-esteem level and stability is an important moderator in this regard. Self-threatening uncertainty is aversive and activates the motivation to regain control. People with high and stable self-esteem should be confident of achieving this goal by self-determined amelioration of the situation and should therefore show a stronger preference for democratic leadership under conditions of uncertainty. By contrast, people with low and unstable self-esteem should place their trust and hope in the abilities of powerful others, resulting in a preference for autocratic leadership. Studies 1a and 1b validate explicit and implicit leadership measures and demonstrate a general prodemocratic default attitude under conditions of certainty. Studies 2 and 3 reveal a democratic reaction for individuals with stable high self-esteem and a submissive reaction for individuals with unstable low self-esteem under conditions of uncertainty. In Study 4, this pattern is cancelled out when individuals evaluate leadership styles from a leader instead of a follower perspective. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

  10. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...

  11. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  12. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  13. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  14. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villemereuil Pierre de

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

  15. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

  16. Quantification of Uncertainties in Integrated Spacecraft System Models, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed effort is to investigate a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) for computationally efficient...

  17. From climate change uncertainties to strategic options. Objectives, instruments, timing issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C [French Agency for Environment and Energy Management, Paris (France)

    1996-12-31

    The question of climate change is characterised by major uncertainties. For some, this means that no action should be undertaken for the time being. For others, forceful action is needed to avoid potentially disastrous consequences: targets and timetables for emission reductions must be agreed. This communication is an attempt to suggest a third alternative, with two main conclusions. The international decision process should focus on instruments and degrees of effort, rather than on `emission trajectories` (the evolution of emission levels over time), rather than on quantitative objectives tied to precise timetables. In this perspective action can start right away. (author)

  18. From climate change uncertainties to strategic options. Objectives, instruments, timing issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [French Agency for Environment and Energy Management, Paris (France)

    1995-12-31

    The question of climate change is characterised by major uncertainties. For some, this means that no action should be undertaken for the time being. For others, forceful action is needed to avoid potentially disastrous consequences: targets and timetables for emission reductions must be agreed. This communication is an attempt to suggest a third alternative, with two main conclusions. The international decision process should focus on instruments and degrees of effort, rather than on `emission trajectories` (the evolution of emission levels over time), rather than on quantitative objectives tied to precise timetables. In this perspective action can start right away. (author)

  19. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  20. Managing uncertainty in fi shing and processing of an integrated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The firm attempts to manage this uncertainty through planning co-ordination of fishing trawler scheduling, catch quota, processing and labour allocation, and inventory control. Schedules must necessarily be determined over some finite planning time horizon, and the trawler schedule itself introduces man-made variability, ...

  1. Climate change and energy options. Decision making in the midst of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinfeld, J.I.

    2001-01-01

    Understanding the world's natural systems, and how our own activities may be affecting those systems, are crucial for the long-term well-being of our society and of all the inhabitants of this world. One of the most complex of these is the global climate system. The nature and extent of significant alterations to the global climate system due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), resulting from human activity such as energy production and manufacturing processes, is still the subject of considerable uncertainty and, indeed, controversy. However, the possible consequent effects on ecological systems and human society may be of such profound gravity, that continuing research into the causes and effects of climate change, and development of viable technology solutions for mitigation of these effects, are essential. Understanding the global climate system, determining how our activities may be influencing it, and taking responsible actions to protect it for future generations, may be among the greatest challenges that humanity has ever faced

  2. Comparing energy storage options for renewable energy integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    -inclusive 100% renewable energy scenario developed for the Danish city Aalborg based on wind power, bio-resources and low-temperature geothermal heat. The paper investigates the system impact of different types of energy storage systems including district heating storage, biogas storage and electricity storage......Increasing penetrations of fluctuating energy sources for electricity generation, heating, cooling and transportation increase the need for flexibility of the energy system to accommodate the fluctuations of these energy sources. Controlling production, controlling demand and utilizing storage...... options are the three general categories of measures that may be applied for ensuring balance between production and demand, however with fluctuating energy sources, options are limited, and flexible demand has also demonstrated limited perspective. This paper takes its point of departure in an all...

  3. Integrated fatigue damage diagnosis and prognosis under uncertainties

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An integrated fatigue damage diagnosis and prognosis framework is proposed in this paper. The proposed methodology integrates a Lamb wave-based damage detection...

  4. Reducing uncertainty in risk assessment by using specific knowledge to replace default options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClellan, R O

    1996-01-01

    This paper has advocated the development of specific scientific information, especially information on the mechanisms of action of chemicals, to use in place of default options in assessing human cancer risks. Four examples have been discussed that build largely on information from the CIIT research program. These four examples are worthy of consideration as a group, with a view to developing insights for increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of obtaining such data in the future and, most of all, to increase their acceptance for use instead of default options. In my view, key features of all four examples are that the data are framed within an exposure-dose-response paradigm and that there is a clear linkage to the end point of concern-cancer. As the number of techniques available for making observations at the cellular and molecular levels continues to increase at a rapid pace, linking these observations to the health end points of concern such as cancer is going to be increasingly important, especially in enhancing the value of the observations for risk assessment purposes. Equally as important, the mechanistic observations must be linked to realistic exposures and associated tissue dose that can be related to realistic human exposure scenarios. In my opinion, the likelihood of obtaining information of value for risk assessment purposes using the most sophisticated of molecular and cellular techniques will be of limited value if the exposures or doses are not realistically linked to those likely to be encountered by humans. The mechanism of alpha 2u-globulin nephropathy and its association with kidney tumors in male rats and the conclusion that the male rat kidney tumor findings are not applicable to assessing human cancer risk is an example of a qualitative decision. I suspect this may be a somewhat unusual case. As one looks across the various mammalian species used for experimentation and makes comparisons with humans, a unifying theme is the relative

  5. INTEGRATION OF SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS - HANFORD EXAMPLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, M.I.

    2009-01-01

    (sm b ullet) Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case (sm b ullet) Spatial coverage identical to reference case (sm b ullet) Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values (sm b ullet) No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate

  6. Development of integrated waste management options for irradiated graphite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Wareing

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Treatment and Disposal of Irradiated Graphite and other Carbonaceous Waste project sought to develop best practices in the retrieval, treatment, and disposal of irradiated graphite including other irradiated carbonaceous waste such as structural material made of graphite, nongraphitized carbon bricks, and fuel coatings. Emphasis was given on legacy irradiated graphite, as this represents a significant inventory in respective national waste management programs. This paper provides an overview of the characteristics of graphite irradiated during its use, primarily as a moderator material, within nuclear reactors. It describes the potential techniques applicable to the retrieval, treatment, recycling/reuse, and disposal of these graphite wastes. Considering the lifecycle of nuclear graphite, from manufacture to final disposal, a number of waste management options have been developed. These options consider the techniques and technologies required to address each stage of the lifecycle, such as segregation, treatment, recycle, and ultimate disposal in a radioactive waste repository, providing a toolbox to aid operators and regulators to determine the most appropriate management strategy. It is noted that national waste management programs currently have, or are in the process of developing, respective approaches to irradiated graphite management. The output of the Treatment and Disposal of Irradiated Graphite and other Carbonaceous Waste project is intended to aid these considerations, rather than dictate them.

  7. Development of integrated waste management options for irradiated graphite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wareing, Alan; Abrahamsen-Mills, Liam; Fowler, Linda; Jarvis, Richard; Banford, Anthony William [National Nuclear Laboratory, Warrington (United Kingdom); Grave, Michael [Doosan Babcock, Gateshead (United Kingdom); Metcalfe, Martin [National Nuclear Laboratory, Gloucestershire (United Kingdom); Norris, Simon [Radioactive Waste Management Limited, Oxon (United Kingdom)

    2017-08-15

    The European Treatment and Disposal of Irradiated Graphite and other Carbonaceous Waste project sought to develop best practices in the retrieval, treatment, and disposal of irradiated graphite including other irradiated carbonaceous waste such as structural material made of graphite, nongraphitized carbon bricks, and fuel coatings. Emphasis was given on legacy irradiated graphite, as this represents a significant inventory in respective national waste management programs. This paper provides an overview of the characteristics of graphite irradiated during its use, primarily as a moderator material, within nuclear reactors. It describes the potential techniques applicable to the retrieval, treatment, recycling/reuse, and disposal of these graphite wastes. Considering the lifecycle of nuclear graphite, from manufacture to final disposal, a number of waste management options have been developed. These options consider the techniques and technologies required to address each stage of the lifecycle, such as segregation, treatment, recycle, and ultimate disposal in a radioactive waste repository, providing a toolbox to aid operators and regulators to determine the most appropriate management strategy. It is noted that national waste management programs currently have, or are in the process of developing, respective approaches to irradiated graphite management. The output of the Treatment and Disposal of Irradiated Graphite and other Carbonaceous Waste project is intended to aid these considerations, rather than dictate them.

  8. Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

  9. Methodology for optimization of process integration schemes in a biorefinery under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >González-Cortés, Meilyn; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Martínez-Martínez, Yenisleidys; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Albernas-Carvajal, Yailet; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Pedraza-Garciga, Julio; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Morales-Zamora, Marlen

    2017-01-01

    The uncertainty has a great impact in the investment decisions, operability of the plants and in the feasibility of integration opportunities in the chemical processes. This paper, presents the steps to consider the optimization of process investment in the processes integration under conditions of uncertainty. It is shown the potentialities of the biomass cane of sugar for the integration with several plants in a biorefinery scheme for the obtaining chemical products, thermal and electric energy. Among the factories with potentialities for this integration are the pulp and paper and sugar factories and other derivative processes. Theses factories have common resources and also have a variety of products that can be exchange between them so certain products generated in a one of them can be raw matter in another plant. The methodology developed guide to obtaining of feasible investment projects under uncertainty. As objective function was considered the maximization of net profitable value in different scenarios that are generated from the integration scheme. (author)

  10. Integrating Dynamic Pricing and Replenishment Decisions Under Supply Capacity Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Feng

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines an integrated decision-making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply, which are often studied separately in the literature. Our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand. Instead, the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values: a reorder point and a target safety stock. Under this policy, a positive order is issued if and...

  11. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  12. Optimisation of internal contamination monitoring programme by integration of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davesne, E.; Casanova, P.; Chojnacki, E.; Paquet, F.; Blanchardon, E.

    2011-01-01

    Potential internal contamination of workers is monitored by periodic bioassay measurements interpreted in terms of intake and committed effective dose by the use of biokinetic and dosimetric models. After a prospective evaluation of exposure at a workplace, a suitable monitoring programme can be defined by choosing adequate measurement techniques and frequency. In this study, the sensitivity of a programme is evaluated by the minimum intake and dose, which may be detected with a given level of confidence by taking into account uncertainties on exposure conditions and measurements. This is made for programme optimisation, which is performed by comparing the sensitivities of different alternative programmes. These methods were applied at the AREVA NC reprocessing plant and support the current monitoring programme as the best compromise between the cost of the measurements and the sensitivity of the programme. (authors)

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessments of GPS and GIS integrated applications for transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sungchul; Vonderohe, Alan P

    2014-02-10

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods are introduced, concerning the quality of spatial data as well as that of output information from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated applications for transportation. In the methods, an error model and an error propagation method form a basis for formulating characterization and propagation of uncertainties. They are developed in two distinct approaches: analytical and simulation. Thus, an initial evaluation is performed to compare and examine uncertainty estimations from the analytical and simulation approaches. The evaluation results show that estimated ranges of output information from the analytical and simulation approaches are compatible, but the simulation approach rather than the analytical approach is preferred for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, due to its flexibility and capability to realize positional errors in both input data. Therefore, in a case study, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based upon the simulation approach is conducted on a winter maintenance application. The sensitivity analysis is used to determine optimum input data qualities, and the uncertainty analysis is then applied to estimate overall qualities of output information from the application. The analysis results show that output information from the non-distance-based computation model is not sensitive to positional uncertainties in input data. However, for the distance-based computational model, output information has a different magnitude of uncertainties, depending on position uncertainties in input data.

  14. Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, T.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

  15. Integrated flexible capacity and inventory management under flexible capacity uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Paç, Mehmet Fazıl

    2006-01-01

    Cataloged from PDF version of article. In a manufacturing environment with volatile demand, inventory management can be coupled with dynamic capacity adjustments for handling the fluctuations more effectively. In this study we consider the integrated management of inventory and flexible capacity management under seasonal stochastic demand and uncertain labor supply. The capacity planning problem is investigated from the workforce planning perspective. We consider a manufactu...

  16. Uncertainty Reduction Via Parameter Design of A Fast Digital Integrator for Magnetic Field Measurement

    CERN Document Server

    Arpaia, P; Lucariello, G; Spiezia, G

    2007-01-01

    At European Centre of Nuclear Research (CERN), within the new Large Hadron Collider (LHC) project, measurements of magnetic flux with uncertainty of 10 ppm at a few of decades of Hz for several minutes are required. With this aim, a new Fast Digital Integrator (FDI) has been developed in cooperation with University of Sannio, Italy [1]. This paper deals with the final design tuning for achieving target uncertainty by means of experimental statistical parameter design.

  17. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

  18. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2009-02-15

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

  19. Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schwarz

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS radio occultation (RO observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere – such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information – can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP; Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC; and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp. The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs

  20. Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

    2018-05-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together

  1. Integrated uncertainty analysis using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Wagner, R.; Allison, C.

    2009-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalunya (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). The integrated uncertainty analysis approach used in the package uses the following steps: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. The first four steps are performed by the user prior to the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 analysis. The remaining steps are included with the MOD4.0 integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package. This paper briefly describes the integrated uncertainty analysis package including (a) the features of the package, (b) the implementation of the package into RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, and

  2. Feynman path integral application on deriving black-scholes diffusion equation for european option pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utama, Briandhika; Purqon, Acep

    2016-01-01

    Path Integral is a method to transform a function from its initial condition to final condition through multiplying its initial condition with the transition probability function, known as propagator. At the early development, several studies focused to apply this method for solving problems only in Quantum Mechanics. Nevertheless, Path Integral could also apply to other subjects with some modifications in the propagator function. In this study, we investigate the application of Path Integral method in financial derivatives, stock options. Black-Scholes Model (Nobel 1997) was a beginning anchor in Option Pricing study. Though this model did not successfully predict option price perfectly, especially because its sensitivity for the major changing on market, Black-Scholes Model still is a legitimate equation in pricing an option. The derivation of Black-Scholes has a high difficulty level because it is a stochastic partial differential equation. Black-Scholes equation has a similar principle with Path Integral, where in Black-Scholes the share's initial price is transformed to its final price. The Black-Scholes propagator function then derived by introducing a modified Lagrange based on Black-Scholes equation. Furthermore, we study the correlation between path integral analytical solution and Monte-Carlo numeric solution to find the similarity between this two methods. (paper)

  3. Influence of resonance parameters' correlations on the resonance integral uncertainty; 55Mn case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerovnik, Gasper; Trkov, Andrej; Capote, Roberto; Rochman, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    For nuclides with a large number of resonances the covariance matrix of resonance parameters can become very large and expensive to process in terms of the computation time. By converting covariance matrix of resonance parameters into covariance matrices of background cross-section in a more or less coarse group structure a considerable amount of computer time and memory can be saved. The question is how important is the information that is discarded in the process. First, the uncertainty of the 55 Mn resonance integral was estimated in narrow resonance approximation for different levels of self-shielding using Bondarenko method by random sampling of resonance parameters according to their covariance matrices from two different 55 Mn evaluations: one from Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG (with large uncertainties but no correlations between resonances), the other from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (with smaller uncertainties but full covariance matrix). We have found out that if all (or at least significant part of the) resonance parameters are correlated, the resonance integral uncertainty greatly depends on the level of self-shielding. Second, it was shown that the commonly used 640-group SAND-II representation cannot describe the increase of the resonance integral uncertainty. A much finer energy mesh for the background covariance matrix would have to be used to take the resonance structure into account explicitly, but then the objective of a more compact data representation is lost.

  4. Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models using GLUE with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2008-01-01

    uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions. The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes is accounted for by defining......In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models. Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and the spatially......-site validation must complement the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood...

  5. An integrated TSP-GA with EOL cost model for selecting the best EOL option

    OpenAIRE

    Zakri Ghazalli; Atsuo Murata

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents our research works on integrating design for disassembly with cost model for end-of-life (EOL) product. This paper has two objectives. The first objective is to optimize disassembly sequence of the EOL product. We integrate a traveling salesman problem approach with genetic algorithm in finding the optimal disassembly sequence for disassembling the EOL product. Based on this optimal sequence, the second objective is to identify the best EOL option. We employ EOL profits an...

  6. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

  7. Improved Genetic Algorithm-Based Unit Commitment Considering Uncertainty Integration Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu-Hyung Jo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In light of the dissemination of renewable energy connected to the power grid, it has become necessary to consider the uncertainty in the generation of renewable energy as a unit commitment (UC problem. A methodology for solving the UC problem is presented by considering various uncertainties, which are assumed to have a normal distribution, by using a Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the constructed scenarios for load, wind, solar, and generator outages, a combination of scenarios is found that meets the reserve requirement to secure the power balance of the power grid. In those scenarios, the uncertainty integration method (UIM identifies the best combination by minimizing the additional reserve requirements caused by the uncertainty of power sources. An integration process for uncertainties is formulated for stochastic unit commitment (SUC problems and optimized by the improved genetic algorithm (IGA. The IGA is composed of five procedures and finds the optimal combination of unit status at the scheduled time, based on the determined source data. According to the number of unit systems, the IGA demonstrates better performance than the other optimization methods by applying reserve repairing and an approximation process. To account for the result of the proposed method, various UC strategies are tested with a modified 24-h UC test system and compared.

  8. The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goñi, Joaquín; Aznárez-Sanado, Maite; Arrondo, Gonzalo; Fernández-Seara, María; Loayza, Francis R; Heukamp, Franz H; Pastor, María A

    2011-03-09

    Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC) and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA) and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively) of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

  9. The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Goñi

    Full Text Available Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

  10. Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Shitao

    2016-05-27

    Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model\\'s estimates of the plume\\'s trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate\\'s contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

  11. Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Shitao; Iskandarani, Mohamed; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Thacker, W. Carlisle; Winokur, Justin; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model's estimates of the plume's trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate's contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

  12. New options to integrate care and financing for persons dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Katherine Jett; Thorpe, Jane Hyatt

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews barriers to clinical and financial integration in services for dual eligibles prior to passage of the ACA, identifies models used by states to integrate care through contract and waiver authorities available to CMS prior to passage of the ACA, describes two new demonstrations proposed by CMS through the Medicare-Medicaid Coordination Office and Innovation Center, and discusses several new models available for consideration by federal and state policymakers. These options draw on experience from existing programs and waivers to provide suggested changes to existing programs, as well as a permanent state plan option for a fully integrated, capitated care model. This model could be made available to states prior to the completion of the demonstration process begun by the Medicare-Medicaid Coordination Office and Innovation Center.

  13. Software Uncertainty in Integrated Environmental Modelling: the role of Semantics and Open Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Rigo, Daniele

    2013-04-01

    undiscovered mistakes in the software used to calculate and present those results" [65]. Despite the ubiquity of software errors [62-70], the structural role of scientific software uncertainty seems dramatically underestimated [2,53]. Semantic D- TM modularization might help to catch at least a subset of silent faults, when misusing intermediate data outside the expected semantic context of a given D- TM module (b). Where the complexity and scale of WSTMe may lead unavoidable software-uncertainty to induce or worsen deep-uncertainty [2], techniques such as ensemble modelling may be recommendable [11-13]. Adapting those techniques for glancing at the software-uncertainty of a given WSTMe would imply availability of multiple instances (implementations) of the same abstract WSTMe. Independently re-implementing the same WSTMe (design diversity [71]) might of course be extremely expensive. However, partly independent re-implementations of critical D- TM modules may be more affordable and examples of comparison between supposedly equivalent D- TM algorithms seem to corroborate the interest of this research option [59,72,51]. References Casagrandi, R., Guariso, G., 2009. Impact of ICT in environmental sciences: A citation analysis 1990-2007. Environmental Modelling & Software 24 (7), 865-871. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.013 de Rigo, D., 2013. Behind the horizon of reproducible integrated environmental modelling at European scale: ethics and practice of scientific knowledge freedom. F1000 Research. To appear as discussion paper Gomes, C. P., 2009. Computational sustainability: Computational methods for a sustainable environment, economy, and society. The Bridge 39 (4), 5-13. http://www.nae.edu/File.aspx?id=17673 Easterbrook, S. M., Johns, T. C., 2009. Engineering the software for understanding climate change. Computing in Science & Engineering 11 (6), 65-74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2009.193 Hamarat, C., Kwakkel, J. H., Pruyt, E., 2012. Adaptive robust design

  14. Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Integral Measurements by Monte-Carlo Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noguere, G.; Bernard, D.; De Saint-Jean, C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)

    2006-07-01

    Full text of the publication follows: The generation of Multi-group cross sections together with relevant uncertainties is fundamental to assess the quality of integral data. The key information that are needed to propagate the microscopic experimental uncertainties to macroscopic reactor calculations are (1) the experimental covariance matrices, (2) the correlations between the parameters of the model and (3) the covariance matrices for the multi-group cross sections. The propagation of microscopic errors by Monte-Carlo technique was applied to determine the accuracy of the integral trends provided by the OSMOSE experiment carried out in the MINERVE reactor of the CEA Cadarache. The technique consists in coupling resonance shape analysis and deterministic codes. The integral trend and its accuracy obtained on the {sup 237}Np(n,{gamma}) reaction will be presented. (author)

  15. Geostatistical integration and uncertainty in pollutant concentration surface under preferential sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Grisotto

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the focus is on environmental statistics, with the aim of estimating the concentration surface and related uncertainty of an air pollutant. We used air quality data recorded by a network of monitoring stations within a Bayesian framework to overcome difficulties in accounting for prediction uncertainty and to integrate information provided by deterministic models based on emissions meteorology and chemico-physical characteristics of the atmosphere. Several authors have proposed such integration, but all the proposed approaches rely on representativeness and completeness of existing air pollution monitoring networks. We considered the situation in which the spatial process of interest and the sampling locations are not independent. This is known in the literature as the preferential sampling problem, which if ignored in the analysis, can bias geostatistical inferences. We developed a Bayesian geostatistical model to account for preferential sampling with the main interest in statistical integration and uncertainty. We used PM10 data arising from the air quality network of the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy Region (Italy and numerical outputs from the deterministic model. We specified an inhomogeneous Poisson process for the sampling locations intensities and a shared spatial random component model for the dependence between the spatial location of monitors and the pollution surface. We found greater predicted standard deviation differences in areas not properly covered by the air quality network. In conclusion, in this context inferences on prediction uncertainty may be misleading when geostatistical modelling does not take into account preferential sampling.

  16. Review of Polynomial Chaos-Based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Integrated Circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kaintura

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Advances in manufacturing process technology are key ensembles for the production of integrated circuits in the sub-micrometer region. It is of paramount importance to assess the effects of tolerances in the manufacturing process on the performance of modern integrated circuits. The polynomial chaos expansion has emerged as a suitable alternative to standard Monte Carlo-based methods that are accurate, but computationally cumbersome. This paper provides an overview of the most recent developments and challenges in the application of polynomial chaos-based techniques for uncertainty quantification in integrated circuits, with particular focus on high-dimensional problems.

  17. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for age-dependent unavailability model integrating test and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Application of analytical unavailability model integrating T and M, ageing, and test strategy. ► Ageing data uncertainty propagation on system level assessed via Monte Carlo simulation. ► Uncertainty impact is growing with the extension of the surveillance test interval. ► Calculated system unavailability dependence on two different sensitivity study ageing databases. ► System unavailability sensitivity insights regarding specific groups of BEs as test intervals extend. - Abstract: The interest in operational lifetime extension of the existing nuclear power plants is growing. Consequently, plants life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. Ageing represents a gradual degradation of the physical properties and functional performance of different components consequently implying their reduced availability. Analyses, which are being made in the direction of nuclear power plants lifetime extension are based upon components ageing management programs. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged. This paper addresses the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted utilizing a previously developed age-dependent unavailability model, integrating effects of test and maintenance activities, for a selected stand-by safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the lack of data concerning the effects of ageing as well as the relatively high uncertainty associated to these data, which would correspond to more detailed modelling of ageing. A standard Monte Carlo simulation was coded for the purpose of this paper and utilized in the process of assessment of the component ageing parameters uncertainty propagation on system level. The obtained results from the uncertainty analysis indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the selected

  18. Advanced Approach to Consider Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties for Integral Accident Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peschke, Joerg; Kloos, Martina

    2013-01-01

    The use of best-estimate codes together with realistic input data generally requires that all potentially important epistemic uncertainties which may affect the code prediction are considered in order to get an adequate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty of the prediction as an expression of the existing imprecise knowledge. To facilitate the performance of the required epistemic uncertainty analyses, methods and corresponding software tools are available like, for instance, the GRS-tool SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis). However, for risk-informed decision-making, the restriction on epistemic uncertainties alone is not enough. Transients and accident scenarios are also affected by aleatory uncertainties which are due to the unpredictable nature of phenomena. It is essential that aleatory uncertainties are taken into account as well, not only in a simplified and supposedly conservative way but as realistic as possible. The additional consideration of aleatory uncertainties, for instance, on the behavior of the technical system, the performance of plant operators, or on the behavior of the physical process provides a quantification of probabilistically significant accident sequences. Only if a safety analysis is able to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a realistic manner, it can provide a well-founded risk-informed answer for decision-making. At GRS, an advanced probabilistic dynamics method was developed to address this problem and to provide a more realistic modeling and assessment of transients and accident scenarios. This method allows for an integral simulation of complex dynamic processes particularly taking into account interactions between the plant dynamics as simulated by a best-estimate code, the dynamics of operator actions and the influence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the GRS method MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for probabilistic dynamics analysis is explained

  19. Tolerance of uncertainty: Conceptual analysis, integrative model, and implications for healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillen, Marij A; Gutheil, Caitlin M; Strout, Tania D; Smets, Ellen M A; Han, Paul K J

    2017-05-01

    Uncertainty tolerance (UT) is an important, well-studied phenomenon in health care and many other important domains of life, yet its conceptualization and measurement by researchers in various disciplines have varied substantially and its essential nature remains unclear. The objectives of this study were to: 1) analyze the meaning and logical coherence of UT as conceptualized by developers of UT measures, and 2) develop an integrative conceptual model to guide future empirical research regarding the nature, causes, and effects of UT. A narrative review and conceptual analysis of 18 existing measures of Uncertainty and Ambiguity Tolerance was conducted, focusing on how measure developers in various fields have defined both the "uncertainty" and "tolerance" components of UT-both explicitly through their writings and implicitly through the items constituting their measures. Both explicit and implicit conceptual definitions of uncertainty and tolerance vary substantially and are often poorly and inconsistently specified. A logically coherent, unified understanding or theoretical model of UT is lacking. To address these gaps, we propose a new integrative definition and multidimensional conceptual model that construes UT as the set of negative and positive psychological responses-cognitive, emotional, and behavioral-provoked by the conscious awareness of ignorance about particular aspects of the world. This model synthesizes insights from various disciplines and provides an organizing framework for future research. We discuss how this model can facilitate further empirical and theoretical research to better measure and understand the nature, determinants, and outcomes of UT in health care and other domains of life. Uncertainty tolerance is an important and complex phenomenon requiring more precise and consistent definition. An integrative definition and conceptual model, intended as a tentative and flexible point of departure for future research, adds needed breadth

  20. An integrated TSP-GA with EOL cost model for selecting the best EOL option

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakri Ghazalli

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents our research works on integrating design for disassembly with cost model for end-of-life (EOL product. This paper has two objectives. The first objective is to optimize disassembly sequence of the EOL product. We integrate a traveling salesman problem approach with genetic algorithm in finding the optimal disassembly sequence for disassembling the EOL product. Based on this optimal sequence, the second objective is to identify the best EOL option. We employ EOL profits and net present value of parts and subassemblies of the EOL product to determine the best EOL option of components and parts of the EOL product. The predicted results showed that the developed cost model has reached a good correspondence with the established methods.

  1. Quantum Mechanics, Path Integrals and Option Pricing: Reducing the Complexity of Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Coriano, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

    2002-01-01

    Quantum Finance represents the synthesis of the techniques of quantum theory (quantum mechanics and quantum field theory) to theoretical and applied finance. After a brief overview of the connection between these fields, we illustrate some of the methods of lattice simulations of path integrals for the pricing of options. The ideas are sketched out for simple models, such as the Black-Scholes model, where analytical and numerical results are compared. Application of the method to nonlinear sy...

  2. Requirements of Integrated Design Teams While Evaluating Advanced Energy Retrofit Design Options in Immersive Virtual Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Yang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the significant ways to save energy use in buildings is to implement advanced energy retrofits in existing buildings. Improving energy performance of buildings through advanced energy retrofitting requires a clear understanding of the cost and energy implications of design alternatives from various engineering disciplines when different retrofit options are considered. The communication of retrofit design alternatives and their energy implications is essential in the decision-making process, as it affects the final retrofit selections and hence the energy efficiency of the retrofitted buildings. The objective of the research presented here was to identify a generic list of information requirements that are needed to be shared and collectively analyzed by integrated design teams during advanced energy retrofit design review meetings held in immersive settings. While identifying such requirements, the authors used an immersive environment based iterative requirements elicitation approach. The technology was used as a means to better identify the information requirements of integrated design teams to be analyzed as a group. This paper provides findings on information requirements of integrated design teams when evaluating retrofit options in immersive virtual environments. The information requirements were identified through interactions with sixteen experts in design and energy modeling domain, and validated with another group of participants consisting of six design experts who were experienced in integrated design processes. Industry practitioners can use the findings in deciding on what information to share with integrated design team members during design review meetings that utilize immersive virtual environments.

  3. Collaborative Knowledge Building and Integral Theory: On Perspectives, Uncertainty, and Mutual Regard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Murray

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in knowing and communicating affect all aspects of modern life. Ubiquitous and inevitable uncertainty, including ambiguity and paradox, is particularly salient and important in knowledge building communities. Because knowledge building communities represent and evolve knowledge explicitly, the causes, effects, and approaches to this “epistemological indeterminacy” can be directly addressed in knowledge building practices. Integral theory’s approach (including “methodological pluralism” involves accepting and integrating diverse perspectives in ways that transcend and include them. This approach accentuates the problems of epistemological indeterminacy and highlights the general need to deal creatively with it. This article begins with a cursory analysis of textual dialogs among integral theorists, showing that, while integral theory itself points to leading-edge ways of dealing with epistemological indeterminacy, the knowledge building practices of integral theorists, by and large, exhibit the same limitations as traditional intellectual discourses. Yet, due to its values and core methods, the integral theory community is in a unique position to develop novel and more adequate modes of inquiry and dialog. This text explores how epistemological indeterminacy impacts the activities and products of groups engaged in collaborative knowledge building. Approaching the issue from three perspectives–mutual understanding, mutual agreement, and mutual regard—I show the interdependence of those perspectives and ground them in relation to integral theory’s concerns. This article proposes three phases of developing constructive alternatives drawn from the knowledge building field: awareness of the phenomena, understanding the phenomena, and offering some tools (and some hope for dealing with it. Though here I focus on the integral theory community (or communities, the conclusions of the article are meant to be applicable to any

  4. Collaborative Knowledge Building and Integral Theory:On Perspectives,Uncertainty, and Mutual Regard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Murray

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in knowing and communicating affect all aspects of modern life. Ubiquitous and inevitable uncertainty, including ambiguity and paradox, is particularly salient and important in knowledge building communities. Because knowledge building communities represent and evolve knowledge explicitly, the causes, effects, and approaches to this “epistemological indeterminacy” can be directly addressed in knowledge building practices. Integral theory's approach (including “methodological pluralism” involves accepting and integrating diverse perspectives in ways that transcend and include them. This approach accentuates the problems of epistemological indeterminacy and highlights the general need to deal creatively with it. This article begins with a cursory analysis of textual dialogs among integral theorists, showing that, while integral theory itself points to leading-edge ways of dealing with epistemological indeterminacy, the knowledge building practices of integral theorists, by and large, exhibit the same limitations as traditional intellectual discourses. Yet, due to its values and core methods, the integral theory community is in a unique position to develop novel and more adequate modes of inquiry and dialog. This text explores how epistemological indeterminacy impacts the activities and products of groups engaged in collaborative knowledge building. Approaching the issue from three perspectives—mutual understanding, mutual agreement, and mutual regard—I show the interdependence of those perspectives and ground them in relation to integral theory’s concerns. This article proposes three phases of developing constructive alternatives drawn from the knowledge building field: awareness of the phenomena, understanding the phenomena, and offering some tools (and some hope for dealing with it. Though here I focus on the integral theory community (or communities, the conclusions of the article are meant to be applicable to any

  5. Method for estimating effects of unknown correlations in spectral irradiance data on uncertainties of spectrally integrated colorimetric quantities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärhä, Petri; Vaskuri, Anna; Mäntynen, Henrik; Mikkonen, Nikke; Ikonen, Erkki

    2017-08-01

    Spectral irradiance data are often used to calculate colorimetric properties, such as color coordinates and color temperatures of light sources by integration. The spectral data may contain unknown correlations that should be accounted for in the uncertainty estimation. We propose a new method for estimating uncertainties in such cases. The method goes through all possible scenarios of deviations using Monte Carlo analysis. Varying spectral error functions are produced by combining spectral base functions, and the distorted spectra are used to calculate the colorimetric quantities. Standard deviations of the colorimetric quantities at different scenarios give uncertainties assuming no correlations, uncertainties assuming full correlation, and uncertainties for an unfavorable case of unknown correlations, which turn out to be a significant source of uncertainty. With 1% standard uncertainty in spectral irradiance, the expanded uncertainty of the correlated color temperature of a source corresponding to the CIE Standard Illuminant A may reach as high as 37.2 K in unfavorable conditions, when calculations assuming full correlation give zero uncertainty, and calculations assuming no correlations yield the expanded uncertainties of 5.6 K and 12.1 K, with wavelength steps of 1 nm and 5 nm used in spectral integrations, respectively. We also show that there is an absolute limit of 60.2 K in the error of the correlated color temperature for Standard Illuminant A when assuming 1% standard uncertainty in the spectral irradiance. A comparison of our uncorrelated uncertainties with those obtained using analytical methods by other research groups shows good agreement. We re-estimated the uncertainties for the colorimetric properties of our 1 kW photometric standard lamps using the new method. The revised uncertainty of color temperature is a factor of 2.5 higher than the uncertainty assuming no correlations.

  6. National Options for a Sustainable Nuclear Energy System: MCDM Evaluation Using an Improved Integrated Weighting Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruxing Gao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While the prospects look bright for nuclear energy development in China, no consensus about an optimum transitional path towards sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle has been achieved. Herein, we present a preliminary study of decision making for China’s future nuclear energy systems, combined with a dynamic analysis model. In terms of sustainability assessment based on environmental, economic, and social considerations, we compared and ranked the four candidate options of nuclear fuel cycles combined with an integrated evaluation analysis using the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM method. An improved integrated weighting method was first applied in the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation study. This method synthesizes diverse subjective/objective weighting methods to evaluate conflicting criteria among the competing decision makers at different levels of expertise and experience. The results suggest that the fuel cycle option of direct recycling of spent fuel through fast reactors is the most competitive candidate, while the fuel cycle option of direct disposal of all spent fuel without recycling is the least attractive for China, from a sustainability perspective. In summary, this study provided a well-informed decision-making tool to support the development of national nuclear energy strategies.

  7. Strategic options in using sterile insects for area-wide integrated pest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendrichs, J.; Vreysen, M.J.B.; Enkerlin, W.R.; Cayol, J.P.

    2005-01-01

    The four strategic options, 'suppression', 'eradication', 'containment' and 'prevention', in which the sterile insect technique (SIT) can be deployed as part of area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) interventions, are defined and described in relation to the contexts in which they are applied against exotic or naturally occurring major insect pests. Advantages and disadvantages of these strategic options are analysed, and examples of successful programmes provided. Considerations of pest status, biology and distribution affecting decision-making in relation to strategy selection are reviewed and discussed in terms of feasibility assessment, and programme planning and implementation. Unrealistic expectations are often associated with applying the SIT, resulting in high political costs to change a strategy during implementation. The choice of strategy needs to be assessed carefully, and considerable baseline data obtained to prepare for the selected strategy, before embarking on an AW-IPM programme with an SIT component. (author)

  8. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  9. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

  10. Integration of QFD, AHP, and LPP methods in supplier development problems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shad, Zahra; Roghanian, Emad; Mojibian, Fatemeh

    2014-04-01

    Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-driven approach, widely used to develop or process new product to maximize customer satisfaction. Last researches used linear physical programming (LPP) procedure to optimize QFD; however, QFD issue involved uncertainties, or fuzziness, which requires taking them into account for more realistic study. In this paper, a set of fuzzy data is used to address linguistic values parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. Proposed integrated approach including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), QFD, and LPP to maximize overall customer satisfaction under uncertain conditions and apply them in the supplier development problem. The fuzzy AHP approach is adopted as a powerful method to obtain the relationship between the customer requirements and engineering characteristics (ECs) to construct house of quality in QFD method. LPP is used to obtain the optimal achievement level of the ECs and subsequently the customer satisfaction level under different degrees of uncertainty. The effectiveness of proposed method will be illustrated by an example.

  11. Micropollutants throughout an integrated urban drainage model: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated urban drainage model which includes micropollutants. Specifically, a bespoke integrated model developed in previous studies has been modified in order to include the micropollutant assessment (namely, sulfamethoxazole - SMX). The model takes into account also the interactions between the three components of the system: sewer system (SS), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and receiving water body (RWB). The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment nearby Palermo (Italy): the Nocella catchment. Overall, five scenarios, each characterized by different uncertainty combinations of sub-systems (i.e., SS, WWTP and RWB), have been considered applying, for the sensitivity analysis, the Extended-FAST method in order to select the key factors affecting the RWB quality and to design a reliable/useful experimental campaign. Results have demonstrated that sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for increasing operator confidence in the modelling results. The approach adopted here can be used for blocking some non-identifiable factors, thus wisely modifying the structure of the model and reducing the related uncertainty. The model factors related to the SS have been found to be the most relevant factors affecting the SMX modeling in the RWB when all model factors (scenario 1) or model factors of SS (scenarios 2 and 3) are varied. If the only factors related to the WWTP are changed (scenarios 4 and 5), the SMX concentration in the RWB is mainly influenced (till to 95% influence of the total variance for SSMX,max) by the aerobic sorption coefficient. A progressive uncertainty reduction from the upstream to downstream was found for the soluble fraction of SMX in the RWB.

  12. Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří [Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.

  13. Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text

  14. Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Xueqian; Sun, Hongbin; Guo, Qinglai; Pan, Zhaoguang; Xiong, Wen; Wang, Li

    2017-01-01

    Currently, a custom-designed configuration of different renewable technologies named the integrated energy system (IES) has become popular due to its high efficiency, benefiting from complementary multi-energy technologies. This paper proposes an information entropy approach to quantify uncertainty in an integrated energy system based on a stochastic model that drives a power system model derived from an actual network on Barry Island. Due to the complexity of co-behaviours between generators, a copula-based approach is utilized to articulate the dependency structure of the generator outputs with regard to such factors as weather conditions. Correlation coefficients and mutual information, which are effective for assessing the dependence relationships, are applied to judge whether the stochastic IES model is correct. The calculated information values can be used to analyse the impacts of the coupling of power and heat on power flows and heat flows, and this approach will be helpful for improving the operation of IES. - Highlights: • The paper explores uncertainty of an integrated energy system. • The dependent weather model is verified from the perspective of correlativity. • The IES model considers the dependence between power and heat. • The information theory helps analyse the complexity of IES operation. • The application of the model is studied using an operational system on Barry Island.

  15. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  16. Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Kai W.; Liu, Xin

    2006-12-01

    Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics.

  17. Efficient uncertainty quantification in fully-integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, K. L.; Berg, S. J.; Davison, J. H.; Sudicky, E. A.; Forsyth, P. A.

    2018-01-01

    Although high performance computers and advanced numerical methods have made the application of fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport models such as HydroGeoSphere common place, run times for large complex basin models can still be on the order of days to weeks, thus, limiting the usefulness of traditional workhorse algorithms for uncertainty quantification (UQ) such as Latin Hypercube simulation (LHS) or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), which generally require thousands of simulations to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. In this paper we investigate non-intrusive polynomial chaos for uncertainty quantification, which in contrast to random sampling methods (e.g., LHS and MCS), represents a model response of interest as a weighted sum of polynomials over the random inputs. Once a chaos expansion has been constructed, approximating the mean, covariance, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and other common statistics as well as local and global sensitivity measures is straightforward and computationally inexpensive, thus making PCE an attractive UQ method for hydrologic models with long run times. Our polynomial chaos implementation was validated through comparison with analytical solutions as well as solutions obtained via LHS for simple numerical problems. It was then used to quantify parametric uncertainty in a series of numerical problems with increasing complexity, including a two-dimensional fully-saturated, steady flow and transient transport problem with six uncertain parameters and one quantity of interest; a one-dimensional variably-saturated column test involving transient flow and transport, four uncertain parameters, and two quantities of interest at 101 spatial locations and five different times each (1010 total); and a three-dimensional fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport problem for a small test catchment involving seven uncertain parameters and three quantities of interest at

  18. Uncertainty of angular displacement measurement with a MEMS gyroscope integrated in a smartphone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Campos Porath, Maurício; Dolci, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Low-cost inertial sensors have recently gained popularity and are now widely used in electronic devices such as smartphones and tablets. In this paper we present the results of a set of experiments aiming to assess the angular displacement measurement errors of a gyroscope integrated in a smartphone of a recent model. The goal is to verify whether these sensors could substitute dedicated electronic inclinometers for the measurement of angular displacement. We estimated a maximum error of 0.3° (sum of expanded uncertainty and maximum absolute bias) for the roll and pitch axes, for a measurement time without referencing up to 1 h. (paper)

  19. Value-creating investment strategies to manage risk from structural market uncertainties: Switching and compound options in (V)HTR technologies - HTR2008-58157

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauferts, U.; Halbe, C.; Van Heek, A.

    2008-01-01

    To measure the value of a technology investment under uncertainty with standard techniques like net present value (NPV) or return on investment (ROI) will often uncover the difficulty to present convincing business case. Projected cash flows are inefficient or the discount rate chosen to compensate for the risk is so high, that it is disagreeable to the investor s requirements. Decision making and feasibility studies have to look beyond traditional analysis to reveal the strategic value of a technology investment. Here, a Real Option Analysis (ROA) offers a powerful alternative to standard discounted cash-flow (DCF) methodology by risk-adjusting the cash flow along the decision path rather than risk adjusting the discount rate. Within the GEN IV initiative attention is brought not only towards better sustainability, but also to broader industrial application and improved financing. Especially the HTR design is full of strategic optionalities: The high temperature output facilitates penetration into other non-electricity energy markets like industrial process heat applications and the hydrogen market. The flexibility to switch output in markets with multi-source uncertainties reduces downside risk and creates an additional value of over 50% with regard to the Net Present Value without flexibility. The supplement value of deploying a modular (V)HTR design adds over 100% to the project value using real option evaluation tools. Focus of this paper was to quantify the strategic value that comes along a) with the modular design; a design that offers managerial flexibility adapting a step-by-step investment strategy to the actual market demand and b) with the option to switch between two modes of operation, namely electricity and hydrogen production. We will demonstrate that the effect of uncertain electricity prices can be dampened down with a modular HTR design. By using a real option approach, we view the project as a series of compound options - each option depending

  20. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanki, D.R.; Rahman, S.; Dang, V.N.; Zerkak, O.

    2017-01-01

    The coupling of plant simulation models and stochastic models representing failure events in Dynamic Event Trees (DET) is a framework used to model the dynamic interactions among physical processes, equipment failures, and operator responses. The integration of physical and stochastic models may additionally enhance the treatment of uncertainties. Probabilistic Safety Assessments as currently implemented propagate the (epistemic) uncertainties in failure probabilities, rates, and frequencies; while the uncertainties in the physical model (parameters) are not propagated. The coupling of deterministic (physical) and probabilistic models in integrated simulations such as DET allows both types of uncertainties to be considered. However, integrated accident simulations with epistemic uncertainties will challenge even today's high performance computing infrastructure, especially for simulations of inherently complex nuclear or chemical plants. Conversely, intentionally limiting computations for practical reasons would compromise accuracy of results. This work investigates how to tradeoff accuracy and computations to quantify risk in light of both uncertainties and accident dynamics. A simple depleting tank problem that can be solved analytically is considered to examine the adequacy of a discrete DET approach. The results show that optimal allocation of computational resources between epistemic and aleatory calculations by means of convergence studies ensures accuracy within a limited budget. - Highlights: • Accident simulations considering uncertainties require intensive computations. • Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations is a challenge. • Optimal allocation between epistemic & aleatory computations ensures the tradeoff. • Online convergence gives an early indication of computational requirements. • Uncertainty propagation in DDET is examined on a tank problem solved analytically.

  1. Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

    2018-01-01

    An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

  2. Evaluation of mechanical precision and alignment uncertainties for an integrated CT/LINAC system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Court, Laurence; Rosen, Isaac; Mohan, Radhe; Dong Lei

    2003-01-01

    A new integrated CT/LINAC combination, in which the CT scanner is inside the radiation therapy treatment room and the same patient couch is used for CT scanning and treatment (after a 180-degree couch rotation), should allow for accurate correction of interfractional setup errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sources of uncertainties, and to measure the overall precision of this system. The following sources of uncertainty were identified: (1) the patient couch position on the LINAC side after a rotation, (2) the patient couch position on the CT side after a rotation, (3) the patient couch position as indicated by its digital readout, (4) the difference in couch sag between the CT and LINAC positions, (5) the precision of the CT coordinates, (6) the identification of fiducial markers from CT images, (7) the alignment of contours with structures in the CT images, and (8) the alignment with setup lasers. The largest single uncertainties (one standard deviation or 1 SD) were found in couch position on the CT side after a rotation (0.5 mm in the RL direction) and the alignment of contours with the CT images (0.4 mm in the SI direction). All other sources of uncertainty are less than 0.3 mm (1 SD). The overall precision of two setup protocols was investigated in a controlled phantom study. A protocol that relies heavily on the mechanical integrity of the system, and assumes a fixed relationship between the LINAC isocenter and the CT images, gave a predicted precision (1 SD) of 0.6, 0.7, and 0.6 mm in the SI, RL and AP directions, respectively. The second protocol reduces reliance on the mechanical precision of the total system, particularly the patient couch, by using radio-opaque fiducial markers to transfer the isocenter information from the LINAC side to the CT images. This protocol gave a slightly improved predicted precision of 0.5, 0.4, and 0.4 mm in the SI, RL and AP directions, respectively. The distribution of phantom position after CT

  3. Integrative evaluation for sustainable decisions of urban wastewater system management under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjimichael, A.; Corominas, L.; Comas, J.

    2017-12-01

    With sustainable development as their overarching goal, urban wastewater system (UWS) managers need to take into account multiple social, economic, technical and environmental facets related to their decisions. In this complex decision-making environment, uncertainty can be formidable. It is present both in the ways the system is interpreted stochastically, but also in its natural ever-shifting behavior. This inherent uncertainty suggests that wiser decisions would be made under an adaptive and iterative decision-making regime. No decision-support framework has been presented in the literature to effectively addresses all these needs. The objective of this work is to describe such a conceptual framework to evaluate and compare alternative solutions for various UWS challenges within an adaptive management structure. Socio-economic aspects such as externalities are taken into account, along with other traditional criteria as necessary. Robustness, reliability and resilience analyses test the performance of the system against present and future variability. A valuation uncertainty analysis incorporates uncertain valuation assumptions in the decision-making process. The framework is demonstrated with an application to a case study presenting a typical problem often faced by managers: poor river water quality, increasing population, and more stringent water quality legislation. The application of the framework made use of: i) a cost-benefit analysis including monetized environmental benefits and damages; ii) a robustness analysis of system performance against future conditions; iii) reliability and resilience analyses of the system given contextual variability; and iv) a valuation uncertainty analysis of model parameters. The results suggest that the installation of bigger volumes would give rise to increased benefits despite larger capital costs, as well as increased robustness and resilience. Population numbers appear to affect the estimated benefits most, followed by

  4. Integrated weed management for sustainable rice production: concepts, perspectives and options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amartalingam Rajan

    2002-01-01

    Weed management has always been in some way integrated with cultural and biological methods, probably occurring more fortuitously than purposefully. Experience has shown that repeated use of any weed control technique especially in monocultures production systems results in rapid emergence of weeds more adapted to the new practice. In intensive high input farming systems, heavy selection pressure for herbicide tolerant weeds and the environmental impacts of these inputs are important tissues that require a good understanding of agroecosystem for successful integration of available options. Rice culture, in particular flooded rice culture has always employed integration through an evolution of management practices over the generations. However, a vast majority office farmers in Asia have yet to achieve the high returns realised by farmers elsewhere, where a near optimum combination of high inputs are being effectively integrated for maximum productivity. In addition to technological and management limitations, farmers in developing countries are faced with social, economic and policy constraints. On the other hand, farmers who had achieved considerable increases in productivity through labour replacing technologies, in particular direct seeding with the aid of herbicides, are now faced with issues related to environmental concerns due to high levels of these inputs. The issues facing weed scientists and farmers alike in managing weeds effectively and in a manner to ensure sustainability have become more challenging than ever before. In the last two decades, no issue has been discussed so. intensively as Sustainable Farming, Sustainable Agriculture or Alternative Agriculture within the broader global concept of Sustainable Development. To address these challenges a clear perspective of sustainable farming is essential. This paper addresses these concepts, perspectives and options for choices in weed management for sustainable rice production. (Author)

  5. Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, K.; Charles, A.; Barange, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change. Climate change interacts strongly with fishery systems, and adds to the inherent uncertainty...... that understanding these aspects of fishery systems and fishery governance is valuable even in the absence of climate-induced processes of change, but that attention to climate change both reinforces the need for, and facilitates the move toward, implementation of integrative science for improved fishery governance....... and processes – to support suitable institutional responses, a broader planning perspective, and development of suitable resilience-building strategies. The paper explores how synergies between institutional change and integrative science can facilitate the development of more effective fisheries policy...

  6. An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel K. Newlands

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

  7. Role of calibration, validation, and relevance in multi-level uncertainty integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Chenzhao; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    Calibration of model parameters is an essential step in predicting the response of a complicated system, but the lack of data at the system level makes it impossible to conduct this quantification directly. In such a situation, system model parameters are estimated using tests at lower levels of complexity which share the same model parameters with the system. For such a multi-level problem, this paper proposes a methodology to quantify the uncertainty in the system level prediction by integrating calibration, validation and sensitivity analysis at different levels. The proposed approach considers the validity of the models used for parameter estimation at lower levels, as well as the relevance at the lower level to the prediction at the system level. The model validity is evaluated using a model reliability metric, and models with multivariate output are considered. The relevance is quantified by comparing Sobol indices at the lower level and system level, thus measuring the extent to which a lower level test represents the characteristics of the system so that the calibration results can be reliably used in the system level. Finally the results of calibration, validation and relevance analysis are integrated in a roll-up method to predict the system output. - Highlights: • Relevance analysis to quantify the closeness of two models. • Stochastic model reliability metric to integrate multiple validation experiments. • Extend the model reliability metric to deal with multivariate output. • Roll-up formula to integrate calibration, validation, and relevance.

  8. Uncertainty reduction of gravity and magnetic inversion through the integration of petrophysical constraints and geological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraud, Jérémie; Jessell, Mark; Lindsay, Mark; Martin, Roland; Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren; Ogarko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    We introduce and test a workflow that integrates petrophysical constraints and geological data in geophysical inversion to decrease the uncertainty and non-uniqueness of the results. We show that the integration of geological information and petrophysical constraints in geophysical inversion can improve inversion results in terms of both uncertainty reduction and resolution. This workflow uses statistical petrophysical properties to constrain the values retrieved by the geophysical inversion and geological prior information to decrease the effect of non-uniqueness. Surface geological data are used to generate geological models as a source of geometrical prior information. Petrophysical measurements are used to derive the statistical laws used for the petrophysical constraints. We integrate the different sources of information in a Bayesian framework, which will take into account these states of information. This permits us to quantify the posterior state of knowledge, the reduction of the uncertainty and to calculate the influence of prior information. To quantify the influence of petrophysical constraints and geological data we compare results obtained with several levels of constraints. We start by inverting data without petrophysical constraints and geological prior information. Then, we add petrophysical constraints before using geological prior information. The results of the inversion are characterized using fixed-point statistics. Various indicators such as model and data misfits, resolution matrices and statistical fit to the petrophysical data are calculated. The resolution matrices are used to plot sensitivity maps. We calculate the posterior covariance matrices to estimate the uncertainty of the model. This workflow was first tested using very simple synthetic datasets before using a subset of the Mansfield area data (Victoria, Australia). The geological model is derived from geological field data. We simulate petrophysical properties based on field

  9. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  10. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  11. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  12. Integrated vermi-pisciculture - an alternative option for recycling of solid municipal waste in rural India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chirashree Ghosh [University of Delhi, New Delhi (India). School of Environmental Studies

    2004-05-01

    Vermicomposts as a biofertilizer can be a great option for pond manuring as they never cause any long term harm to the soil like chemical fertilizer. In this study vegetable and horticulture waste was used as an important media for vermiculture. Three separate cemented tanks (6 m{sup 3} each) were used in the system as control tank, vermicompost fertilized tank and inorganic fertilizer manured tank. Monoculture of fish was carried out with cat fish, Clarias batrachus. The produced earthworms were used as fish feed. Regular monitoring of water parameter was conducted in three different ponds. Specifically, the algal biomass variation was quite helpful in analysing the behavior of the ponds. NPK value of soil samples was analyzed intermittently to know the eutrophication level. Despite the hot summer temperature in northern part of India, which is not ideal for fish growth, we have recorded an encouraging growth performance in organic manured pond along with inorganic fertilizer treated and control pond. Among eutrophicated pond, the fish biomass from vermicompost fed pond showed an increasing trend compared to inorganic fertilizer treated pond. Water retention capacity of vermicompost pond soil was better in comparison to other ponds. Result shows that the low cost model by integrating two production system vermiculture and pisciculture could be a commercially and environmentally viable option. (author)

  13. Wind power integration using individual heat pumps – Analysis of different heat storage options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Lund, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Significant installations of individual heat pumps are expected in future energy systems due to their economic competitiveness. This case study of the Danish energy system in 2020 with 50% wind power shows that individual heat pumps and heat storages can contribute to the integration of wind power....... Heat accumulation tanks and passive heat storage in the construction are investigated as two alternative storage options in terms of their ability to increase wind power utilisation and to provide cost-effective fuel savings. Results show that passive heat storage can enable equivalent to larger...... reductions in excess electricity production and fuel consumption than heat accumulation tanks. Moreover, passive heat storage is found to be significantly more cost-effective than heat accumulation tanks. In terms of reducing fuel consumption of the energy system, the installation of heat pumps is the most...

  14. Financial risk management for new technology integration in energy planning under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Sajjad; Elsholkami, Mohamed; Elkamel, Ali; Du, Juan; Ydstie, Erik B.; Douglas, Peter L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Financial risk associated with over or underproduction of electricity is studied. • A two-stage stochastic model that considers parameter uncertainties is developed. • The model was applied to a real case to meet projected electricity demand of a fleet of generating stations. • Incorporation of financial risk resulted in an increase in electricity cost. • The selection of technologies was the same as that obtained from a deterministic model. - Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology to include financial risk management in the framework of two-stage stochastic programming for energy planning under uncertainties in demand and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters that have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. This was applied to a case study focusing on planning the capacity supply to meet the projected electricity demand for the fleet of electricity generation stations owned and operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The objective of the proposed mathematical model is to minimize cost subject to environmental constraints. The case study is investigated by considering only existing technologies and also by considering the integration of new technologies that help achieve stricter carbon reduction requirements

  15. Integrating geological uncertainty in long-term open pit mine production planning by ant colony optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilani, Seyed-Omid; Sattarvand, Javad

    2016-02-01

    Meeting production targets in terms of ore quantity and quality is critical for a successful mining operation. In-situ grade uncertainty causes both deviations from production targets and general financial deficits. A new stochastic optimization algorithm based on ant colony optimization (ACO) approach is developed herein to integrate geological uncertainty described through a series of the simulated ore bodies. Two different strategies were developed based on a single predefined probability value (Prob) and multiple probability values (Pro bnt) , respectively in order to improve the initial solutions that created by deterministic ACO procedure. Application at the Sungun copper mine in the northwest of Iran demonstrate the abilities of the stochastic approach to create a single schedule and control the risk of deviating from production targets over time and also increase the project value. A comparison between two strategies and traditional approach illustrates that the multiple probability strategy is able to produce better schedules, however, the single predefined probability is more practical in projects requiring of high flexibility degree.

  16. Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-01-01

    On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

  17. Combination for differential and integral data: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of reactor performance parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marable, J.H.; de Saussure, G.; Weisbin, C.R.

    1982-01-01

    This chapter attempts to show how the various types of data presented and discussed in previous chapters can be combined and applied to the calculation of performance parameters of a reactor design model. Discusses derivation of least-squares adjustment; input data to the adjustment; the results of adjustment; and application to an LMFBR. Demonstrates that the least-squares formulae represent a logical, well-founded method for combining the results of integral and differential experiments. Includes calculational bias factors and their uncertainties. Concludes that the adjustment technique is a valuable tool, and that significant progress has been made with respect to its development and its applications. Recommends further work on the evaluation of covariance files, especially for calculational biases, and the inclusion of specific shielding factors as variables to be adjusted. The appendix features a calculation whose goal is to find the form of the projection operator which projects perpendicular to the calculational manifold

  18. Optimization under uncertainty of a biomass-integrated renewable energy microgrid with energy storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yingying; Jenkins, Bryan M.; Kornbluth, Kurt

    2018-01-01

    Deterministic constrained optimization and stochastic optimization approaches were used to evaluate uncertainties in biomass-integrated microgrids supplying both electricity and heat. An economic linear programming model with a sliding time window was developed to assess design and scheduling...... of biomass combined heat and power (BCHP) based microgrid systems. Other available technologies considered within the microgrid were small-scale wind turbines, photovoltaic modules (PV), producer gas storage, battery storage, thermal energy storage and heat-only boilers. As an illustrative example, a case...... study was examined for a conceptual utility grid-connected microgrid application in Davis, California. The results show that for the assumptions used, a BCHP/PV with battery storage combination is the most cost effective design based on the assumed energy load profile, local climate data, utility tariff...

  19. Integrated forward/reverse logistics network design under uncertainty with pricing for collection of used products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses design and planning of an integrated forward/reverse logistics network over a planning horizon with multiple tactical periods. In the network, demand for new products and potential return of used products are stochastic. Furthermore, collection amounts of used products...... with different quality levels are assumed dependent on offered acquisition prices to customer zones. A uniform distribution function defines the expected price of each customer zone for one unit of each used product. Using two-stage stochastic programming, a mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed....... To cope with demand and potential return uncertainty, Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate fan of scenarios and then, backward scenario reduction technique is used to reduce the number of scenarios. Due to the problem complexity, a novel simulation-based simulated annealing algorithm...

  20. Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Qiuwen, E-mail: qchen@rcees.ac.cn [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China); China Three Gorges University, Daxuelu 8, Yichang 443002 (China); CEER, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Guangzhoulu 223, Nanjing 210029 (China); Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China)

    2014-06-01

    Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004–2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial–temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial–temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. - Highlights: • An innovative method is developed to analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. • The algal blooms in Taihu Lake showed obvious spatial and temporal patterns. • The lake is mainly characterized as moderate bloom but with high uncertainty. • Severe bloom with low uncertainty appeared occasionally in the northwest part. • The results provide important information to bloom monitoring and management.

  1. A Study of the Impact of Underground Economy on Integral Tax Burden in the Proportional Growth Model under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akif Musayev

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic processes are naturally characterized by imprecise and uncertain relevant information. One of the main reasons is existence of an underground economy. However, in existing works, real-world imprecision and uncertainty of economic conditions are not taken into account. In this paper we consider a problem of calculation of a taxation base to assess tax burden for proportionally growing economy under uncertainty. In order to account for imprecision and uncertainty of economic processes, we use the theory of fuzzy sets. A fuzzy integral equation is used to identify an integral tax burden taking into account the contribution of the underground economy for a certain financial (tax year. It is also assumed that dynamics of gross domestic product are modeled by fuzzy linear differential equation. An optimal value of tax burden is determined as a solution to the considered fuzzy integral equation. An example is provided to illustrate validity of the proposed study.

  2. Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use.

  3. Options Study - Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Wigeland; T. Taiwo; M. Todosow; W. Halsey; J. Gehin

    2010-09-01

    The Options Study has been conducted for the purpose of evaluating the potential of alternative integrated nuclear fuel cycle options to favorably address the issues associated with a continuing or expanding use of nuclear power in the United States. The study produced information that can be used to inform decisions identifying potential directions for research and development on such fuel cycle options. An integrated nuclear fuel cycle option is defined in this study as including all aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from obtaining natural resources for fuel to the ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) or radioactive wastes. Issues such as nuclear waste management, especially the increasing inventory of used nuclear fuel, the current uncertainty about used fuel disposal, and the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation have contributed to the reluctance to expand the use of nuclear power, even though it is recognized that nuclear power is a safe and reliable method of producing electricity. In this Options Study, current, evolutionary, and revolutionary nuclear energy options were all considered, including the use of uranium and thorium, and both once-through and recycle approaches. Available information has been collected and reviewed in order to evaluate the ability of an option to clearly address the challenges associated with the current implementation and potential expansion of commercial nuclear power in the United States. This Options Study is a comprehensive consideration and review of fuel cycle and technology options, including those for disposal, and is not constrained by any limitations that may be imposed by economics, technical maturity, past policy, or speculated future conditions. This Phase II report is intended to be used in conjunction with the Phase I report, and much information in that report is not repeated here, although some information has been updated to reflect recent developments. The focus in this Options Study was to

  4. Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cooke, R.M.

    2012-01-01

    This article traces the development of uncertainty analysis through three generations punctuated by large methodology investments in the nuclear sector. Driven by a very high perceived legitimation burden, these investments aimed at strengthening the scientific basis of uncertainty quantification.

  5. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

    2011-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow

  6. The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that

  7. Evaluation of pull production control strategies under uncertainty: An integrated fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aydin Torkabadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Just-In-Time (JIT production has continuously been considered by industrial practitioners and researchers as a leading strategy for the yet popular Lean production. Pull Production Control Policies (PPCPs are the major enablers of JIT that locally control the level of inventory by authorizing the production in each station. Aiming to improve the PPCPs, three authorization mechanisms: Kanban, constant-work-in-process (ConWIP, and a hybrid system, are evaluated by considering uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM methods are successful in evaluating alternatives with respect to several objectives. The proposed approach of this study applies the fuzzy set theory together with an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP and a Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS method. Findings: The study finds that hybrid Kanban-ConWIP pull production control policies have a better performance in controlling the studied multi-layer multi-stage manufacturing and assembly system. Practical implications: To examine the approach a real case from automobile electro mechanical part production industry is studied. The production system consists of multiple levels of manufacturing, feeding a multi-stage assembly line with stochastic processing times to satisfy the changing demand. Originality/value: This study proposes the integrated Kanban-ConWIP hybrid pull control policies and implements several alternatives on a multi-stage and multi-layer manufacturing and assembly production system. An integrated Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS method is developed to evaluate the alternatives with respect to several JIT criteria.

  8. Analysis of decision fusion algorithms in handling uncertainties for integrated health monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Mikhail, Maged; Bodruzzaman, Mohammad; DeSimio, Martin; Derriso, Mark; Behbahani, Alireza

    2012-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that data fusion and information fusion methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in structural health monitoring systems. It is arguably true nonetheless, that decision-level is equally beneficial when applied to integrated health monitoring systems. Several decisions at low-levels of abstraction may be produced by different decision-makers; however, decision-level fusion is required at the final stage of the process to provide accurate assessment about the health of the monitored system as a whole. An example of such integrated systems with complex decision-making scenarios is the integrated health monitoring of aircraft. Thorough understanding of the characteristics of the decision-fusion methodologies is a crucial step for successful implementation of such decision-fusion systems. In this paper, we have presented the major information fusion methodologies reported in the literature, i.e., probabilistic, evidential, and artificial intelligent based methods. The theoretical basis and characteristics of these methodologies are explained and their performances are analyzed. Second, candidate methods from the above fusion methodologies, i.e., Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer, and fuzzy logic algorithms are selected and their applications are extended to decisions fusion. Finally, fusion algorithms are developed based on the selected fusion methods and their performance are tested on decisions generated from synthetic data and from experimental data. Also in this paper, a modeling methodology, i.e. cloud model, for generating synthetic decisions is presented and used. Using the cloud model, both types of uncertainties; randomness and fuzziness, involved in real decision-making are modeled. Synthetic decisions are generated with an unbiased process and varying interaction complexities among decisions to provide for fair performance comparison of the selected decision-fusion algorithms. For verification purposes

  9. Study of application of option B at integrated leakage tests on Swedish reactor containments; Utredning om tillaempning av option B vid integrala taethetsprover paa svenska reaktorinneslutningar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Roger [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Reactor Technology

    2004-12-15

    The task of the reactor containment is to protect the environment from radioactive release from the nuclear power plant. The containment is a passive component and one can therefore not verify its success criteria during normal operation. To verify the integrity of the containment one has to perform integrated leakage tests (type A tests). These tests are performed in accordance with either option A or B in the American regulation Appendix J 10 CFR 50. The choice of option is up to the licensee. Option A does not consider the leakage history of the containment. The test interval is fixed and set to three tests equally distributed over ten years. The test pressure shall be at least half of the design basis accident pressure (DBA-pressure). Option B does take the leakage history into consideration and is therefore performance-based. The test interval can be chosen to a maximum of ten years. The test pressure shall be the DBA-pressure. In Sweden the type A tests are performed in accordance with option A. The purpose of this investigation is to investigate whether option B can be used in Sweden without any significant risk impact. Performance of a type A test with half of the design pressure can result in an undetected leak. If a leak is of such characteristic that it does not show any leakage behaviour until it is exposed to a certain level of pressure where it can open itself, the leak can be missed during a test with too low pressure. On the other hand, option B demands a higher test pressure which contributes to the risk during the performance of the type A test. The advantage of a more correct result from the type A test is considered to be greater than the disadvantage of a high test-pressure. Hence, Type A test shall be performed with the realistic DBA-pressure. The work has included a literature study, telephone interviews, local meetings and analyses of existing PSA results and reports in the subject. An investigation of the On-Line Monitoring (OLM) method is

  10. The effect of an integrated education model on anxiety and uncertainty in patients undergoing cervical disc herniation surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Mei-Fang; Tung, Heng-Hsin; Clinciu, Daniel L; Huang, Jing-Shan; Iqbal, Usman; Chang, Chih-Ju; Su, I-Chang; Lai, Fu-Chih; Li, Yu-Chuan

    2016-09-01

    Educating patients about receiving surgical procedures is becoming an important issue, as it can reduce anxiety and uncertainty while helping to hasten decisions for undergoing time sensitive surgeries. We evaluated a new integrated education model for patients undergoing cervical disc herniation surgery using a quasi-experimental design. The participants were grouped into either the new integrated educational model (n = 32) or the standard group (n = 32) on the basis of their ward numbers assigned at admission. Anxiety, uncertainty, and patient satisfaction were measured before (pre-test) and after the educational intervention (post-test-1) and post-surgery (post-test-2) to assess the effectiveness of the model in this intervention. We found that the generalized estimating equation modeling demonstrated this new integrated education model was more effective than the conventional model in reducing patients' anxiety and uncertainty (p approach to individual health. This novel systemic educational model enhances patient's understanding of the medical condition and surgery while promoting patient-caregiver interaction for optimal patient health outcomes. We present a comprehensive and consistent platform for educational purposes in patients undergoing surgery as well as reducing the psychological burden from anxiety and uncertainty. Integrating medicine, nursing, and new technologies into an e-practice and e-learning platform offers the potential of easier understanding and usage. It could revolutionize patient education in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A research on verification of the CONTAIN CODE model and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Moo Hwan; Kang, Seok Hun; Seo, Kyoung Woo [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    The final goal of this research is to verify methodology for evaluating more accurately the integrity of containment and develop the methodology to reduce the uncertainty using the data of the operating PWR, KSNPP, KNGR during a severe accident. Therefore, the research selected an indispensable factor about DCH, and analysed sensitivity test at this year.

  12. Integrating uncertainties to the combined environmental and economic assessment of algal biorefineries: A Monte Carlo approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J

    2018-06-01

    The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  14. An integrated location inventory routing model in supply chain network designing under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojat Angazi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study an integrated model is proposed for the location inventory routing problem under uncertainty. This problem involves determining the location of distribution centers (DCs in a three echelon supply chain. The DCs receive orders from the customer and according to a continuous review inventory replenishment policy place orders to the supplier. The products are directly shipped from the supplier to the DCs. The vehicles start from the DCs to fulfill the demands of the customers. Determining the routing of the vehicles is one of the decisions involved in this problem. The demands of customers are stochastically distributed and the capacity of DCs are limited. If one of the DCs undergo a disruption and is unable to fulfill the demands of the customers, shortage may occur. Moreover in the proposed model the shortage is considered as partial backlogging. This means that if shortage occurs, some of the orders result in lost sales and other orders are fulfilled in the next period. In order to optimally solve the proposed model a nonlinear integer programming (INLP model is developed. However, since the problem is NP-hard, the mathematical formulation cannot be efficiently solved for large sized instances of the problem. Therefore an outer approximation method is developed to solve the problem more efficiently. The computational results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

  15. Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO 2 emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO 2 emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives

  16. Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)], E-mail: elin.svensson@chalmers.se; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives.

  17. Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. A pulp mill example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives. (author)

  18. Model structural uncertainty quantification and hydrogeophysical data integration using airborne electromagnetic data (Invited)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minsley, Burke; Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen

    of airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to estimate large-scale model structural geometry, i.e. the spatial distribution of different lithological units based on assumed or estimated resistivity-lithology relationships, and the uncertainty in those structures given imperfect measurements. Geophysically derived...... estimates of model structural uncertainty are then combined with hydrologic observations to assess the impact of model structural error on hydrologic calibration and prediction errors. Using a synthetic numerical model, we describe a sequential hydrogeophysical approach that: (1) uses Bayesian Markov chain...... Monte Carlo (McMC) methods to produce a robust estimate of uncertainty in electrical resistivity parameter values, (2) combines geophysical parameter uncertainty estimates with borehole observations of lithology to produce probabilistic estimates of model structural uncertainty over the entire AEM...

  19. Cost assessment and ecological effectiveness of nutrient reduction options for mitigating Phaeocystis colony blooms in the Southern North Sea: an integrated modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancelot, Christiane; Thieu, Vincent; Polard, Audrey; Garnier, Josette; Billen, Gilles; Hecq, Walter; Gypens, Nathalie

    2011-05-01

    Nutrient reduction measures have been already taken by wealthier countries to decrease nutrient loads to coastal waters, in most cases however, prior to having properly assessed their ecological effectiveness and their economic costs. In this paper we describe an original integrated impact assessment methodology to estimate the direct cost and the ecological performance of realistic nutrient reduction options to be applied in the Southern North Sea watershed to decrease eutrophication, visible as Phaeocystis blooms and foam deposits on the beaches. The mathematical tool couples the idealized biogeochemical GIS-based model of the river system (SENEQUE-RIVERSTRAHLER) implemented in the Eastern Channel/Southern North Sea watershed to the biogeochemical MIRO model describing Phaeocystis blooms in the marine domain. Model simulations explore how nutrient reduction options regarding diffuse and/or point sources in the watershed would affect the Phaeocystis colony spreading in the coastal area. The reference and prospective simulations are performed for the year 2000 characterized by mean meteorological conditions, and nutrient reduction scenarios include and compare upgrading of wastewater treatment plants and changes in agricultural practices including an idealized shift towards organic farming. A direct cost assessment is performed for each realistic nutrient reduction scenario. Further the reduction obtained for Phaeocystis blooms is assessed by comparison with ecological indicators (bloom magnitude and duration) and the cost for reducing foam events on the beaches is estimated. Uncertainty brought by the added effect of meteorological conditions (rainfall) on coastal eutrophication is discussed. It is concluded that the reduction obtained by implementing realistic environmental measures on the short-term is costly and insufficient to restore well-balanced nutrient conditions in the coastal area while the replacement of conventional agriculture by organic farming

  20. Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiuwen; Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui

    2014-06-01

    Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004-2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial-temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial-temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-11-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  2. Integrated and holistic suitability assessment of recycling options for masonry rubble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, T.; Rübner, K.; Meng, B.

    2012-04-01

    Our industrial society depends on continuous mining and consumption of raw materials and energy. Besides, the building sector causes one of the largest material streams in Germany. On the one hand, the building sector is connected with a high need in material and energetic resources as well as financial expenditures. On the other hand, nearly 50 % of the volume of waste arises from the building industry. During the last years, the limitation of natural resources, increasing negative environmental consequences as well as rising prices and shortages of dump space have led to a change in thinking in the building and waste industry to a closed substance cycle waste management. In consideration of the production figures of the main kinds of masonry units (clay bricks, sand-lime bricks, autoclaved aerated concrete brick, concrete blocks), a not unimportant quantity of masonry rubble (including gypsum plaster boards, renders, mortars and mineral insulating materials) of more than 20 million tons per year is generated in the medium term. With regard to a sustainable closed substance cycle waste management, these rest masses have to be recycled if possible. Processed aggregates made from masonry rubble can be recycled in the production of new masonry units under certain conditions. Even carefully deconstructed masonry units can once more re-used as masonry units, particularly in the area of the preservation of monuments and historical buildings. In addition, masonry rubble in different processing qualities is applied in earth and road construction, horticulture and scenery construction as well as concrete production. The choice of the most suitable recycling option causes technical, economical and ecological questions. At present, a methodology for a comprehensive suitability assessment with a passable scope of work does not exist. Basic structured and structuring information on the recycling of masonry rubble is absent up to now. This as well as the economic and technical

  3. Assessing temporal uncertainties in integrated groundwater management: an opportunity for change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglade, J. A.; Billen, G.; Garnier, J.

    2013-12-01

    aquifer of about 25 years. Uncertainties about the time delay for positive results created a shock among the involved actors that motivated them to re-launch the dialogue, and enter into a new phase of the iterative decision making process to determine up to date long term strategies. Secondly, a diagnostic of recommended solutions in the existing agreements based on the soil surface balance method has raised alert about the inefficiency of agricultural best practices set up to deliver sub-root water concentration meeting the European drinking standard. According to the scientific committee, only a shift to organic farming could reconcile water and food production, with the pre-condition that this agricultural transition takes place in a territorial project which goes beyond the catchment borders. This proposal offers possibilities for re-structuring the issue for the different sides. This example underlines that integrated groundwater management could impose a time delay of several decades to cope with complex biophysical processes, construct coordination and modify individual practices. This time needed to build collaborative agreement is all the more difficult to control as part of an evolving regulatory framework.

  4. Comparison of integration options for gasification-based biofuel production systems – Economic and greenhouse gas emission implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, Kristina M.; Berntsson, Thore S.; Andersson, Eva; Rydberg, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    The impact of different integration options for gasification-based biofuel production systems producing synthetic natural gas, methanol and FT (Fischer-Tropsch) fuels on the NAP (net annual profit), FPC (fuel production cost) and the GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction potential are analysed. The considered integration options are heat deliveries to DH (district heating) systems or to nearby industries and integration with infrastructure for CO_2 storage. The comparison is made to stand-alone configurations in which the excess heat is used for power production. The analysis considers future energy market scenarios and case studies in southwestern Sweden. The results show that integration with DH systems has small impacts on the NAP and the FPC and diverging (positive or negative) impacts on the GHG emissions. Integration with industries has positive effects on the economic and GHG performances in all scenarios. The FPCs are reduced by 7–8% in the methanol case and by 12–13% in the FT production case. The GHG emission reductions are strongly dependent on the reference power production. The storage of separated CO_2 shows an increase in the GHG emission reduction potential of 70–100% for all systems, whereas the impacts on the economic performances are strongly dependent on the CO_2_e-charge. - Highlights: • Three gasification-based biofuel production systems at case study sites are analysed. • Greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and economic performance are evaluated. • Impact of integration with adjacent industry or district heating systems is analysed. • The assessment comprises future energy market scenarios including CCS infrastructure. • Utilisation options for excess heat significantly impact the evaluated parameters.

  5. Municipal solid waste options : integrating organics management and residual disposal treatment : executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cant, M. (comp.) [Totten Sims Hubicki Associates Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Van der Werf, P. [2cg Inc., Edmonton, AB (Canada); Kelleher, M. [Kelleher Environmental, Toronto, ON (Canada); Merriman, D. [MacViro Consultants, Markham, ON (Canada); Fitcher, K. [Gartner Lee Ltd., Toronto, ON (Canada); MacDonald, N. [CH2M Hill Engineering Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-04-15

    The Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Options Report explored different MSW management options for 3 community sizes: 20,000, 80,000 and 200,0000 people. It was released at a time when many communities were developing waste management plans to cost-effectively reduce environmental impacts and conserve landfill capacity. The purpose of this report was to provide a greater understanding on the environmental, social, economic, energy recovery/utilization and greenhouse gas (GHG) considerations of MSW management. The report also demonstrated the interrelationships between the management of organics and residuals. It was based on information from existing waste diversion and organics management options and emerging residual treatment technology options. The following organics management and residual treatment disposal options were evaluated: composting; anaerobic digestion; sanitary landfills; bioreactor landfills; and thermal treatment. Composting was examined with reference to both source separated organics (SSO) and mixed waste composting. SSO refers to the separation of materials suitable for composting solid waste from households, while mixed waste composting refers to the manual or mechanical removal of recyclable material from the waste, including compost. The composting process was reviewed along with available technologies such as non-reactor windrow; aerated static pile; reactor enclosed channel; and, container tunnel. An evaluation of SSO and mixed waste composting was then presented in terms of environmental, social, financial and GHG impacts. refs., tabs., figs.

  6. Integrated economic assessment of energy and forestry mitigation options using MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    There have been a number of economic assessment of GHG mitigation studies carried out in Indonesia. Several alternative mitigation options for energy and non-energy sectors have been described and the economic assessment of the options has been done for each sectors. However, most of the economic assessment particularly for non-energy sector, was not to find a least cost option but the lowest cost options. A program called MARKAL developed by a consortium of energy specialists from more than a dozen countries in the early 1980s, is a program that can be used for optimization, so that the least cost options could be selected. Indonesia has used this program intensively for energy system analysis. Attempt to use this program for other sector has not been developed as this program was designed for energy sector. Therefore, using MARKAL for other sector, all activities of the other sectors should be treated as energy activities. This study is aimed to use MARKAL for analysing both energy and forestry sector together. This paper described briefly the methodology of using MARKAL for both energy and forestry sectors. As the activities in energy sector have unique characteristics, thus only forest activities are described in more detail. (au)

  7. New Fathers' Perinatal Depression and Anxiety-Treatment Options: An Integrative Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Anthony P; McNeil, Karen A; Fletcher, Richard; Conrad, Agatha; Wilson, Amanda J; Jones, Donovan; Chan, Sally W

    2017-07-01

    More than 10% of fathers experience depression and anxiety during the perinatal period, but paternal perinatal depression (PPND) and anxiety have received less attention than maternal perinatal mental health problems. Few mainstream treatment options are available for men with PPND and anxiety. The aim of this literature review was to summarize the current understanding of PPND and the treatment programs specifically designed for fathers with perinatal depression. Eight electronic databases were searched using a predefined strategy, and reference lists were also hand searched. PPND and anxiety were identified to have a negative impact on family relationships, as well as the health of mothers and children. Evidence suggests a lack of support and tailored treatment options for men having trouble adjusting to the transition to fatherhood. Of the limited options available, cognitive behavioral therapy, group work, and blended delivery programs, including e-support approaches appear to be most effective in helping fathers with perinatal depression and anxiety. The review findings have important implications for the understanding of PPND and anxiety. Future research is needed to address the adoption of father-inclusive and father-specific models of care to encourage fathers' help-seeking behavior. Inclusion of male-specific requirements into support and treatment options can improve the ability of services to engage new fathers. Psychotherapeutic intervention could assist to address the cognitive differences and dissonance for men adjusting to the role of father, including male identity and role expectations.

  8. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Tolerance of uncertainty: Conceptual analysis, integrative model, and implications for healthcare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hillen, Marij A.; Gutheil, Caitlin M.; Strout, Tania D.; Smets, Ellen M. A.; Han, Paul K. J.

    2017-01-01

    Rationale: Uncertainty tolerance (UT) is an important, well-studied phenomenon in health care and many other important domains of life, yet its conceptualization and measurement by researchers in various disciplines have varied substantially and its essential nature remains unclear. Objective: The

  10. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  11. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  12. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  13. Thermo-Economic Modelling and Process Integration of CO2-Mitigation Options on Oil and Gas Platforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2014-01-01

    recovering CO2 that can be used for enhanced oil recovery. In this paper, a North Sea platform is considered as case study, and the site-scale retrofit integration of these three options is analysed, considering thermodynamic, economic and environmental performance indicators. The results illustrate......The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process associated with large CO2 and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere and chemicals to the sea. The taxation of these emissions has encouraged the development of more energy-efficient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three...

  14. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

  15. A research on verification of the CONTAIN CODE model and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae-Hong; Kim, Moo-Hwan; Bae, Seong-Won; Byun, Sang-Chul [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-03-15

    The final objectives of this study are to establish the way of measuring the integrity of containment building structures and safety analysis in the period of a postuIated severe accidents and to decrease the uncertainty of these methods. For that object, the CONTAIN 1.2 codes model for analyzing the severe accidents phenomena and the heat transfer between the air inside the containment buildings and inner walls have been reviewed and analyzed. For the double containment wall provided to the next generation nuclear reactor, which is different to the previous type of containment, the temperature and pressure rising history were calculated and compared to the results of previous ones.

  16. An integrated bi-level optimization model for air quality management of Beijing's energy system under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Nie, S

    2018-05-15

    In this study, an interval chance-constrained bi-level programming (ICBP) method is developed for air quality management of municipal energy system under uncertainty. ICBP can deal with uncertainties presented as interval values and probability distributions as well as examine the risk of violating constraints. Besides, a leader-follower decision strategy is incorporated into the optimization process where two decision makers with different goals and preferences are involved. To solve the proposed model, a bi-level interactive algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making processes. Then, an ICBP based energy and environmental systems (ICBP-EES) model is formulated for Beijing, in which air quality index (AQI) is used for evaluating the integrated air quality of multiple pollutants. Result analysis can help different stakeholders adjust their tolerances to achieve the overall satisfaction of EES planning for the study city. Results reveal that natural gas is the main source for electricity-generation and heating that could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing in future. Results also disclose that PM 10 is the major contributor to AQI. These findings can help decision makers to identify desired alternatives for EES planning and provide useful information for regional air quality management under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Uncertainty-embedded dynamic life cycle sustainability assessment framework: An ex-ante perspective on the impacts of alternative vehicle options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onat, Nuri Cihat; Kucukvar, Murat; Tatari, Omer

    2016-01-01

    Alternative vehicle technologies have a great potential to minimize the transportation-related environmental impacts, reduce the reliance of the U.S. on imported petroleum, and increase energy security. However, they introduce new uncertainties related to their environmental, economic, and social impacts and certain challenges for widespread adoption. In this study, a novel method, uncertainty-embedded dynamic life cycle sustainability assessment framework, is developed to address both methodological challenges and uncertainties in transportation sustainability research. The proposed approach provides a more comprehensive, system-based sustainability assessment framework by capturing the dynamic relations among the parameters within the U.S. transportation system as a whole with respect to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. Using multivariate uncertainty analysis, likelihood of the impact reduction potentials of different vehicle types, as well as the behavioral limits of the sustainability potentials of each vehicle type are analyzed. Seven sustainability impact categories are dynamically quantified for four different vehicle types (internal combustion, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles) from 2015 to 2050. Although impacts of electric vehicles have the largest uncertainty, they are expected (90% confidence) to be the best alternative in long-term for reducing human health impacts and air pollution from transportation. While results based on deterministic (average) values indicate that electric vehicles have greater potential of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, plug-in hybrid vehicles have the largest potential according to the results with 90% confidence interval. - Highlights: • Uncertainty-embedded dynamic sustainability assessment framework, is developed. • Methodological challenges and uncertainties are addressed. • Seven impact categories are quantified for four different vehicle types.

  18. Underground storage tank integrated demonstration: Evaluation of pretreatment options for Hanford tank wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lumetta, G.J.; Wagner, M.J.; Colton, N.G.; Jones, E.O.

    1993-06-01

    Separation science plays a central role inn the pretreatment and disposal of nuclear wastes. The potential benefits of applying chemical separations in the pretreatment of the radioactive wastes stored at the various US Department of Energy sites cover both economic and environmental incentives. This is especially true at the Hanford Site, where the huge volume (>60 Mgal) of radioactive wastes stored in underground tanks could be partitioned into a very small volume of high-level waste (HLW) and a relatively large volume of low-level waste (LLW). The cost associated with vitrifying and disposing of just the HLW fraction in a geologic repository would be much less than those associated with vitrifying and disposing of all the wastes directly. Futhermore, the quality of the LLW form (e.g., grout) would be improved due to the lower inventory of radionuclides present in the LLW stream. In this report, we present the results of an evaluation of the pretreatment options for sludge taken from two different single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site-Tanks 241-B-110 and 241-U-110 (referred to as B-110 and U-110, respectively). The pretreatment options examined for these wastes included (1) leaching of transuranic (TRU) elements from the sludge, and (2) dissolution of the sludge followed by extraction of TRUs and 90 Sr. In addition, the TRU leaching approach was examined for a third tank waste type, neutralized cladding removal waste

  19. Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

  20. Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

    OpenAIRE

    Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

    2018-01-01

    As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

  1. Transforming Medical Assessment: Integrating Uncertainty Into the Evaluation of Clinical Reasoning in Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Suzette; Lemay, Jean-Francois

    2017-06-01

    In an age where practicing physicians have access to an overwhelming volume of clinical information and are faced with increasingly complex medical decisions, the ability to execute sound clinical reasoning is essential to optimal patient care. The authors propose two concepts that are philosophically paramount to the future assessment of clinical reasoning in medicine: assessment in the context of "uncertainty" (when, despite all of the information that is available, there is still significant doubt as to the best diagnosis, investigation, or treatment), and acknowledging that it is entirely possible (and reasonable) to have more than "one correct answer." The purpose of this article is to highlight key elements related to these two core concepts and discuss genuine barriers that currently exist on the pathway to creating such assessments. These include acknowledging situations of uncertainty, creating clear frameworks that define progressive levels of clinical reasoning skills, providing validity evidence to increase the defensibility of such assessments, considering the comparative feasibility with other forms of assessment, and developing strategies to evaluate the impact of these assessment methods on future learning and practice. The authors recommend that concerted efforts be directed toward these key areas to help advance the field of clinical reasoning assessment, improve the clinical care decisions made by current and future physicians, and have positive outcomes for patients. It is anticipated that these and subsequent efforts will aid in reaching the goal of making future assessment in medical education more representative of current-day clinical reasoning and decision making.

  2. Integrated offering strategy for profit enhancement of distributed resources and demand response in microgrids considering system uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shayeghi, H.; Sobhani, B.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Modelling mathematical integration of the proposed central bidding strategy for microgrids. • Considering and modelling the intra-market for adjusting the energy imbalances. • Analyzing effect of uncertainty of demand response and imbalance prices in profit of MG components. - Abstract: Due to the uncertain nature and limited predictability of wind and PV generated power, these resources participating in most of electricity markets are subject to significant deviation penalties during market settlements. In order to balance the unpredicted wind and PV power variations, system operators need to schedule additional reserves. This paper presents the optimal integrated participation model of wind and PV energy including demand response, storage devices, and dispatchable distributed generations in microgrids or virtual microgrids to increase their revenues in the intra-market. This market is considered 3–7 h before the delivered time, so that the amount of the contracted energy could be updated to reduce the produced power deviation of microgrid. A stochastic programming approach is considered in the development of the proposed bidding strategies for microgrid producers and loads. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and simultaneously treating three kinds of uncertainty including wind and PV power, intra-market, and imbalance prices. In order to predict these uncertainty variables, a neuro-fuzzy based approach has been applied. Historic data are used to forecast future prices and wind and PV power production in the adjustment markets. Also, a probabilistic approach based on the error of forecasted and real historic data is considered for estimating the future IM and imbalance prices of wind and PV produced power. Further, a test case is applied to example the microgrid using the Spanish market rules during one week, month, and year period to illustrate the potential benefits of the proposed joint

  3. Review of Polynomial Chaos-Based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Integrated Circuits

    OpenAIRE

    Arun Kaintura; Tom Dhaene; Domenico Spina

    2018-01-01

    Advances in manufacturing process technology are key ensembles for the production of integrated circuits in the sub-micrometer region. It is of paramount importance to assess the effects of tolerances in the manufacturing process on the performance of modern integrated circuits. The polynomial chaos expansion has emerged as a suitable alternative to standard Monte Carlo-based methods that are accurate, but computationally cumbersome. This paper provides an overview of the most recent developm...

  4. Integration of marine transport into the European Emissions Trading System. Environmental, economic and legal analysis of different options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeuerle, Tim [Rechtsanwaelte Zimmermann - Gretz - Trautmann - Baeuerle, Heidelberg (Germany); Graichen, Jakob; Meyer, Kristin; Seum, Stefan [Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Kulessa, Margareta [Mainz Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany); Oschinski, Matthias

    2010-05-15

    Marine vessels globally contribute to carbon dioxide emissions with approximately 3.3% (IMO 2009). Interna-tional ocean shipping has been growing significantly over recent years. To date international marine emissions are not part of the Kyoto obligations and the member states at IMO have not implemented instruments that would have limited or reduced the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from ships. The European Union has announced that if no international agreement including reduction targets for seaborne emissions has been approved by the UNFCCC by December 31, 2011, the EC is tasked to submit a proposal for including international marine transport in Euro-pean reduction targets and policy measures. An inclusion of international marine transport in the European Emis-sions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a likely scenario. The study investigates three options for integrating international ocean shipping into the EU ETS based on: a last period; the last distance travelled and the distance the cargo has travelled. Basing the system on a last period is superior to basing it on last trip or cargo in terms of environmental effectiveness. However, the system would cover vessel activities in international waters, even potentially between two non-European ports, and thus the legal feasi-bility of this challenge is discussed. Another element of the study is the analysis of the economic effects of the inte-gration of international seaborne greenhouse gas emissions into the EU ETS. Overall it can be concluded that the integration of international ocean shipping into the EU ETS is a legally and technically feasible option with no significantly negative or even beneficial economic effects. The extension to vessel activity in international waters secures adequate coverage and environmental effectiveness. This extension to vessel activity in international waters is not only a prerequisite for adequate emissions coverage, but is also associated with the least legal obstacles, is

  5. A computer program for uncertainty analysis integrating regression and Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Hill, Mary C.; Poeter, Eileen P.; Curtis, Gary

    2014-01-01

    This work develops a new functionality in UCODE_2014 to evaluate Bayesian credible intervals using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC capability in UCODE_2014 is based on the FORTRAN version of the differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm of Vrugt et al. (2009), which estimates the posterior probability density function of model parameters in high-dimensional and multimodal sampling problems. The UCODE MCMC capability provides eleven prior probability distributions and three ways to initialize the sampling process. It evaluates parametric and predictive uncertainties and it has parallel computing capability based on multiple chains to accelerate the sampling process. This paper tests and demonstrates the MCMC capability using a 10-dimensional multimodal mathematical function, a 100-dimensional Gaussian function, and a groundwater reactive transport model. The use of the MCMC capability is made straightforward and flexible by adopting the JUPITER API protocol. With the new MCMC capability, UCODE_2014 can be used to calculate three types of uncertainty intervals, which all can account for prior information: (1) linear confidence intervals which require linearity and Gaussian error assumptions and typically 10s–100s of highly parallelizable model runs after optimization, (2) nonlinear confidence intervals which require a smooth objective function surface and Gaussian observation error assumptions and typically 100s–1,000s of partially parallelizable model runs after optimization, and (3) MCMC Bayesian credible intervals which require few assumptions and commonly 10,000s–100,000s or more partially parallelizable model runs. Ready access allows users to select methods best suited to their work, and to compare methods in many circumstances.

  6. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  7. Analysis of Nuclear Option in Planning on Java Bali Integrated Electricity System By Using Message Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masdin; Sudi-Ariyanto; Nuryanti

    2004-01-01

    The growth of national energy demand in the future still become a great challenge for energy supply sector in Indonesia. The current energy supply strategy focuses the development and diversification of all energy options including fossil fuel, renewable energy and nuclear energy. Based on the Comprehensive Assessment Of Different Energy Source For Electricity Demand Study (CADES), final energy demand will grow from 4,065 PJ in 2000 to about 8,200 PJ in 2025. In this paper, the analysis of national energy system network will be divided into 2 regions, namely Java Bali region and Outside Java Bali region. Period of time horizon chosen in this study is 25 years (2000 to 2025). Simulation of network system configuration based on minimum objective function criteria was done by using MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) computer program. The focus of the analysis in this paper is simulation of electricity planning sector for Java Bali region. The result of simulation shows that for scenarios with no limitation on all fuel for power plant, scenario where fuel oil as constant supply for power plant and also configuration with limitation on gas supply, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) does not appear during the study period using cost parameter set in this study. If there are limitations on gas supply and constrains of emissions (SO 2 and CO 2 ) due to coal combustion, NPP would become competitive and appear at about year 2015. (author)

  8. Integrated crop livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa: An option or an imperative?

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, J.W.; Naazie, A.; Larbi, A.; Agyemang, K.; Tarawali, S.

    1997-01-01

    Metadata only record Rapid growth of the human and livestock populations in sub-Saharan Africa is creating unprecedented increases in food and feed demands. These population pressures on a fixed landbase are likely to promote severe competition for resources and drive agriculture progressively towards intensification. Integrated crop livestock systems, already common in the highlands, are expected to evolve rapidly elsewhere. Research is required to develop technological alternatives which...

  9. Climate change and foreign policy : an exploration of options for greater integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drexhage, J.; Murphy, D.; Brown, O.; Cosbey, A.; Dickey, P.; Parry, J.-E.; Van Ham, J.; Tarasofsky, R.; Darkin, B.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change is a global challenge and one of biggest challenges of this century. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires new thinking in foreign policy. This paper discussed the results of a research study that examined the role of foreign policy in fostering a more effective international response to the challenge of climate change. The scope involved an examination of instruments relevant to Danish foreign policy. The paper first identified the climate change challenge and discussed international diplomacy and relations. Energy security and investment was discussed in terms of the impact of energy security on climate change efforts and opportunities for integration. Other areas where critical issues and opportunities for integration were offered include international peace and security; trade and investment; and development cooperation. The paper made several recommendations in these areas in addition to diplomatic networking. The study concluded that foreign policy can further the climate change agenda in a number of areas in diplomacy and foreign relations within the European Union, transatlantic relations, Arctic issues and United Nations affairs. This includes better integration of climate change into the European Union's common foreign and security policy, the Lisbon Agenda, and incorporating climate change in the work of a wide range of bodies under the United Nations. refs., figs

  10. Integrated workforce capacity and inventory management under temporary labor supply uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pac, M.F.; Alp, O.; Tan, T.

    2007-01-01

    In a manufacturing environment with volatile demand, inventory management can be coupled with dynamic capacity adjustments for handling the fluctuations more effectively. In this study, we consider the problem of integrated capacity and inventory management under non-stationary stochastic demand and

  11. Integrated workforce capacity and inventory management under temporary labor supply uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pac, M.F.; Alp, O.; Tan, T.

    2009-01-01

    In a manufacturing environment with volatile demand, inventory management can be coupled with dynamic capacity adjustments for handling the fluctuations more effectively. In this study, we consider the problem of integrated capacity and inventory management under non-stationary stochastic demand and

  12. THE INTEGRATION OF YOUNG ECONOMISTS ON THE LABOUR MARKET. THE PROFESSION OPTION - A DECISION FOR CAREER AND FOR A LIFESTYLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borza Adriana

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Knowing the importance of the integration process of graduates of higher economic studies on a labour market that is becoming more and more demanding, as well as the fact that professional objectives realistic defined represent an essential demand of performance, the present paper aims to determine the relevance of personal decision capacities as a favouring factor of a concrete career option for economist students. Our research is based on information and statistical data obtained through applying tests and questionnaires on economist students from licence and master studies form three universities: University of Oradea, The West University of Timisoara and Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, in the project called PRACTeam The practice of economist students. Inter-regional partnership on the labour market between universities and the business environment Project co-financed through the Social European Fund, Through the Operational Program Human Resource Development 2007 - 2013 'Invest in people!'. In essence we leave from the premises that the professional option reflects a specific side of individual's personality which does not choose only for a certain occupation but, implicitly for a certain lifestyle. As a diagnosis approach we assume axiomatic the thesis according to which the high level of congruence between the individual psychological availabilities and the occupational environment raises the satisfaction chance and professional success. The approach that we submit is an interdisciplinary one, as well as the research team formed of two economists and a psychologist. Our study proposes to identify the correlation between the individual decision ability of the subject and the compatibility between a specific interests set of abilities identified on the basis of individual tests. Also, on the basis of processing the results obtained of economist students at the personality tests, we will try to argument explaining the option of some

  13. Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Polo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.

  14. Use of Sobol's quasirandom sequence generator for integration of modified uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, A.

    1995-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of model output is relevant to a number of practices, including verification of models and computer code quality assurance. It deals with the identification of influential model parameters, especially in complex models implemented in computer programs with many uncertain input variables. In a recent article a new method for sensitivity analysis, named HIM * based on a rank transformation of the uncertainty importance measure suggested by Hora and Iman was proved very powerful for performing automated sensitivity analysis of model output, even in presence of model non-monotonicity. The same was not true of other widely used non-parametric techniques such as standardized rank regression coefficients. A drawback of the HIM * method was the large dimension of the stochastic sample needed for its estimation, which made HIM * impracticable for systems with large number of uncertain parameters. In the present note a more effective sampling algorithm, based on Sobol's quasirandom generator is coupled with HIM * , thereby greatly reducing the sample size needed for an effective identification of influential variables. The performances of the new technique are investigated for two different benchmarks. (author)

  15. Integrated options for the management of black root rot of strawberry caused by Rhizoctonia solani Kuhn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asad-Uz-Zaman, Md; Bhuiyan, Mohammad Rejwan; Khan, Mohammad Ashik Iqbal; Alam Bhuiyan, Md Khurshed; Latif, Mohammad Abdul

    2015-02-01

    An investigation was made to manage strawberry black root rot caused by Rhizoctonia solani (R. solani) through the integration of Trichoderma harzianum (T. harzianum) isolate STA7, mustard oil cake and Provax 200. A series of preliminary experiments were conducted to select a virulent isolate of R. solani, an effective isolate of T. harzianum, a suitable organic amendment, and a suitable fungicide before setting the experiment for integration. The pathogenicity of the selected four isolates of R. solani was evaluated against strawberry and isolate SR1 was selected as the test pathogen due to its highest virulent (95.47% mortality) characteristics. Among the 20 isolates of T. harzianum, isolate STA7 showed maximum inhibition (71.97%) against the test pathogen (R. solani). Among the fungicides, Provax-200 was found to be more effective at lowest concentration (100 ppm) and highly compatible with Trichoderma isolates STA7. In the case of organic amendments, maximum inhibition (59.66%) of R. solani was obtained through mustard oil cake at the highest concentration (3%), which was significantly superior to other amendments. Minimum percentages of diseased roots were obtained with pathogen (R. solani)+Trichoderma+mustard oil cake+Provax-200 treatment, while the highest was observed with healthy seedlings with a pathogen-inoculated soil. In the case of leaf and fruit rot diseases, significantly lowest infected leaves as well as fruit rot were observed with a pathogen+Trichoderma+mustard oil cake+Provax-200 treatment in comparison with the control. A similar trend of high effectiveness was observed by the integration of Trichoderma, fungicide and organic amendments in controlling root rot and fruit diseases of strawberry. Single application of Trichoderma isolate STA7, Provax 200 or mustard oil cake did not show satisfactory performance in terms of disease-free plants, but when they were applied in combination, the number of healthy plants increased significantly. The

  16. Application of the standard options of the FITNET procedure to the structural integrity assessment of welded specimens containing cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dzioba, Ihor; Neimitz, Andrzej

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the structural integrity of welded specimens is assessed. The specimens were welded using a conventional technique, MAG, and an unconventional one, laser technology. Welded specimens were of the central crack under tension (CCT) type. The elements were loaded, the maximum load was recorded, and the second and the third options of the FITNET procedure were utilized to estimate the critical loading. Estimated and recorded loads were compared to verify the conservatism of the estimated results. For comparison, the results obtained using Option 1 of the FITNET procedure (not recommended in the case analysed) are also presented. Results of the mechanical properties, hardness, fracture toughness for the base and the weld material and residual stress distributions are reported for both MAG and laser welding techniques. The results obtained confirm that the FITNET procedures were properly deigned. The higher the level of analysis, the smaller the conservatism of predictions observed. The overconservative conclusions, following from the lower level of analysis, suggest that the structural element is endangered, do not have to exclude it from exploitation. The higher level of analysis can, in some cases, confirm that the structural element containing a crack can still be exploited

  17. Life cycle assessment integrated with thermodynamic analysis of bio-fuel options for solid oxide fuel cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jiefeng; Babbitt, Callie W; Trabold, Thomas A

    2013-01-01

    A methodology that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with thermodynamic analysis is developed and applied to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing biofuels from waste biomass, including biodiesel from waste cooking oil, ethanol from corn stover, and compressed natural gas from municipal solid wastes. Solid oxide fuel cell-based auxiliary power units using bio-fuel as the hydrogen precursor enable generation of auxiliary electricity for idling heavy-duty trucks. Thermodynamic analysis is applied to evaluate the fuel conversion efficiency and determine the amount of fuel feedstock needed to generate a unit of electrical power. These inputs feed into an LCA that compares energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of different fuel pathways. Results show that compressed natural gas from municipal solid wastes is an optimal bio-fuel option for SOFC-APU applications in New York State. However, this methodology can be regionalized within the U.S. or internationally to account for different fuel feedstock options. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-09-01

    The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

  19. Options for integrated resource management in the Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, J.E.

    1991-02-01

    Examples of consultative activities and environmental protection measures are reviewed which have been employed in the Mackenzie Delta/Beaufort Sea region by one or more petroleum operators to achieve successful integrated land use during the past 20 years. The review illustrates how petroleum operators, in cooperation with local residents and communities, have planned and adapted specific aspects of different projects to address and resolve environmental and community concerns, and provides an overview of the measures that can be employed to achieve integrated land use planning guidelines for future projects. The review focuses on specific groups of renewable resources and the applicable measures that have been used to reduce industrial impacts to these resources which are very important to local residents. Community consultation processes in the planning region have been successfully used by local residents, government, and industry to identify concerns associated with petroleum projects, and to develop appropriate measures to address these concerns. Environmental protection planning measures are described for cultural and historical resources, air quality, noise, freshwater quality, marine water quality, terrain and soils, fisheries, and terrestrial and marine wildlife. General measures as well as specific protection procedures such as the beluga whale protection plan and oil spill contingency plans are discussed. Although some environmental accidents have occurred during petroleum exploration and drilling activities, evidence suggests that petroleum activity has been able to proceed with no detectable long-term impacts to the environment. 30 refs., 1 fig

  20. A comprehensive overview on light independent fermentative hydrogen production from wastewater feedstock and possible integrative options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Gopalakrishnan; Sivagurunathan, Periyasamy; Pugazhendhi, Arivalagan; Thi, Ngoc Bao Dung; Zhen, Guangyin; Chandrasekhar, Kuppam; Kadier, Abudukeremu

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Hydrogen production from various wastewaters has been reviewed. • Physico-chemical composition of the wastewater influences the H_2 yield. • Sugar rich wastewaters could be a feasible source for dark fermentative H_2 production. - Abstract: This review focuses on the current developments and new insights in the field of dark fermentation technologies using wastewater as carbon and nutrient source. It has begun with the type of wastewaters (sugar rich, toxic and industrial) employed in the H_2 production and their production performances with pure (or) mixed microbiota as seeding source in the batch reactors. Secondly, well-documented continuous system performances and their failure reasons were examined along with the enhancement possibilities in ways of strategies. A SWOT analysis has been performed to validate the strength and weakness of the continuous systems towards its industrialization and possible scheme of the integration methods have been illustrated. Additionally, an outlook has been provided with enlightening the remedies for its success. Moreover, the practical perspectives of the continuous systems are highlighted and challenges towards scale up are mentioned. Finally, the possible integrative approaches along with continuous systems towards the bioH_2 technologies implementation are enlightened.

  1. Integrated planning for regional development planning and water resources management under uncertainty: A case study of Xining, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Z. H.; Zhao, H. J.; Wang, H.; Lu, W. T.; Wang, J.; Guo, H. C.

    2017-11-01

    Economic restructuring, water resources management, population planning and environmental protection are subjects to inner uncertainties of a compound system with objectives which are competitive alternatives. Optimization model and water quality model are usually used to solve problems in a certain aspect. To overcome the uncertainty and coupling in reginal planning management, an interval fuzzy program combined with water quality model for regional planning and management has been developed to obtain the absolutely ;optimal; solution in this study. The model is a hybrid methodology of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy programing (FP), and a general one-dimensional water quality model. The method extends on the traditional interval parameter fuzzy programming method by integrating water quality model into the optimization framework. Meanwhile, as an abstract concept, water resources carrying capacity has been transformed into specific and calculable index. Besides, unlike many of the past studies about water resource management, population as a significant factor has been considered. The results suggested that the methodology was applicable for reflecting the complexities of the regional planning and management systems within the planning period. The government policy makers could establish effective industrial structure, water resources utilization patterns and population planning, and to better understand the tradeoffs among economic, water resources, population and environmental objectives.

  2. The worth of data to reduce predictive uncertainty of an integrated catchment model by multi-constraint calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J.; Jensen, K. H.; Stisen, S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models that integrate numerical process descriptions across compartments of the water cycle are typically required to undergo thorough model calibration in order to estimate suitable effective model parameters. In this study, we apply a spatially distributed hydrological model code which couples the saturated zone with the unsaturated zone and the energy portioning at the land surface. We conduct a comprehensive multi-constraint model calibration against nine independent observational datasets which reflect both the temporal and the spatial behavior of hydrological response of a 1000km2 large catchment in Denmark. The datasets are obtained from satellite remote sensing and in-situ measurements and cover five keystone hydrological variables: discharge, evapotranspiration, groundwater head, soil moisture and land surface temperature. Results indicate that a balanced optimization can be achieved where errors on objective functions for all nine observational datasets can be reduced simultaneously. The applied calibration framework was tailored with focus on improving the spatial pattern performance; however results suggest that the optimization is still more prone to improve the temporal dimension of model performance. This study features a post-calibration linear uncertainty analysis. This allows quantifying parameter identifiability which is the worth of a specific observational dataset to infer values to model parameters through calibration. Furthermore the ability of an observation to reduce predictive uncertainty is assessed as well. Such findings determine concrete implications on the design of model calibration frameworks and, in more general terms, the acquisition of data in hydrological observatories.

  3. Using an Integrated Participatory Modeling Approach to Assess Water Management Options and Support Community Conversations on Maui

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rushil S. Mistry

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated analysis of water distribution on Maui and the cross-sectoral impacts of policies and regulations aimed at rejuvenating and sustaining the deep-rooted culture on the island. Since the water diversion system was implemented in 1876 on the island of Maui, there has been contention among local interest groups over the right way to manage and allocate this precious resource. There is also concern over the availability of the precious resource in the long term, as the demand for water is expected to exceed the potential supply of water on Maui by 2020. This paper analyzes various long run scenarios of policy options presently being discussed on Maui. By collaborating with local experts, business leaders, and community members, to develop a tool that facilitates policy formulation and evaluation, informed decisions can then be made by the local community to ensure sustainable development.

  4. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  5. Model for calculation of spot prices and uncertainties integration; Modelo de calculo de precos spot e integracao de incertezas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraiva, J. Tome [Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Porto (Portugal). E-mail: jsaraiva@inescn.pt

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents a model for systematic and structured impact evaluation of the uncertainties existent in the load powers, on the spot prices on the various bars of a electric power system. The application developed allows the specification of load power as inaccurate trapezoidal numbers and adopts the DC model for the representation of system exploration conditions. Considering the influence of the loss power on the formulation of a spot prices spatial distribution, the model allows the inclusion of transmission network loss estimation. The results correspond to appurtenance functions of spot prices in each barm, consisting of a discrete set of ordered pais which integrates the spot price values and the appurtenance or compatibility level, in accordance with Fuzzy Sets.

  6. Legume integration as an agroecological intensification option for smallholders in uplands of Southeast Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yap, Von Yi

    to intensification. Ricebean (Vigna umbellata L.) was the most preferred legume species among the others to be integrated with maize due to its high selling price, ease to grow and harvest, stable market demand and ability to improve soil fertility. The results from researcher-managed field trial demonstrated......The transition from swidden agriculture to intensive maize (Zea mays L.) monoculture in upland regions of Southeast Asia has led to declining soil fertility problem, which necessitates the use of external nutrient inputs to sustain crop productivity. Conventional intensification via the use...... cropping represented low-external-input intensive farming systems, and the villages in northern Laos that cultivated maize with a short fallow period represented low-input farming systems. Data were collected from field surveys, a set of researcher- and farmer-managed field trials under rain-fed conditions...

  7. Renewable energy and policy options in an integrated ASEAN electricity market: Quantitative assessments and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Youngho; Li, Yanfei

    2015-01-01

    Energy market integration (EMI) in the ASEAN region is a promising solution to relieve the current immobilization of its renewable energy resources and would serve the fast increasing demand for electricity in the region. EMI could be further extended with coordinated policies in carbon pricing, renewable energy portfolio standards (RPS), and feed-in-tariffs (FIT) in the ASEAN countries. Using a linear dynamic programming model, this study quantitatively assesses the impacts of EMI and the above-mentioned policies on the development of renewable energy in the power generation sector of the region, and the carbon emissions reduction achievable with these policies. According to our results, EMI is expected to significantly promote the adoption of renewable energy. Along with EMI, FIT appears to be more cost-effective than RPS and is recommended for the ASEAN region, albeit political barriers for policy coordination among the countries might be a practical concern. In addition, an RPS of 30% electricity from renewable sources by 2030, which is considered politically a “low-hanging fruit”, would achieve moderate improvements in carbon emissions reductions and renewable energy development, while incurring negligible increases in the total cost of electricity. -- Highlights: •Energy market integration (EMI), carbon pricing, RPS, and FIT are examined for ASEAN. •EMI is a promising and feasible solution to promote renewable energy for ASEAN. •Along with EMI, FIT appears to be more cost-effective than RPS for ASEAN. •RPS of 30% by 2030 appears to be reasonable and feasible for ASEAN. •Coordinating FIT and RPS policies under EMI among ASEAN is advised

  8. An Integrated Multiperiod OPF Model with Demand Response and Renewable Generation Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukhsh, Waqquas Ahmed; Zhang, Chunyu; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar have received much attention in recent years, and large amount of renewable generation is being integrated to the electricity networks. A fundamental challenge in a power system operation is to handle the intermittent nature of the renewable...... that with small flexibility on the demand-side substantial benefits in terms of re-dispatch costs can be achieved. The proposed approach is tested on all standard IEEE test cases upto 300 buses for a wide variety of scenarios....

  9. Options for management of containment integrity during severe accident in Indian PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Sanjeev Kr.; Bhartia, D.K.; Mohan, N.; Nair, Suma R.

    2015-01-01

    Severe accident progressions have the potential to raise the containment pressure beyond the design pressure of the structure. Although the load withstanding capability of the containment structure has been assessed to be substantially higher than the design pressure of the structure (typically 2 times of design pressure), it is possible that a few components of Containment System may degrade leading to excessive release of radioactive fission gases at ground level. Additionally, possible cracks in the concrete of the containment at high pressure may aggravate the release at ground level. Over and above, maintaining high containment pressure high for a longer period increases the ground level release due to leakage from the containment, which effect on dose might be high. For maintaining the Integrity of the Containment, containment pressure can be reduced by either energy management system such as removing the heat from the calandria vault (CVWC) water by using CV water heat exchanger intermittently or reliving the containment atmosphere either through Primary Containment Controlled Discharge (PCCD) or Containment Filtered Venting System (CFVS). Further, it is necessary that these provisions must be initiated below design pressure. This paper presents the analysis for the containment depressurization by using CVWC system restored, manual opening of (PCCD) line and operation of CFVS during the progressions of the accident

  10. Performance evaluation of an integrated solar water heater as an option for building energy conservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dharuman, C.; Arakeri, J.H.; Srinivasan, K. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalaore (India). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2006-03-15

    Since a majority of residential and industrial building hot water needs are around 50 {sup o}C, an integrated solar water heater could provide a bulk source that blends collection and storage into one unit. This paper describes the design, construction and performance test results of one such water-heating device. The test unit has an absorber area of 1.3 m{sup 2} and can hold 170 l of water, of which extractable volume per day is 100 l. Its performance was evaluated under various typical operating conditions. Every morning at about 7:00 a.m., 100 l of hot water were drawn from the sump and replaced with cold water from the mains. Although, during most of the days, the peak temperatures of water obtained are between 50 and 60 {sup o}C, the next morning temperatures were lower at 45-50 {sup o}C. Daytime collection efficiencies of about 60% and overall efficiencies of about 40% were obtained. Tests were conducted with and without stratification. Night radiation losses were reduced by use of a screen insulation. (author)

  11. Economic assessment of R and D with real options in the field of fast reactors taking into account uncertainty on their competitiveness: the case of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taverdet-Popiolek, Nathalie; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka

    2013-01-01

    In a context of potential worldwide nuclear development, this paper aims at assessing the economic value of pursuing research in Generation IV fast reactors today, given that it would allow industrial deployment around 2040 in case of high uranium prices. Two key variables shall be considered as inputs for the assessment: the price of uranium and the over-cost of Generation IV reactors compared to the previous generation. Our model based on real options theory demonstrates that this value is positive and outweighs the risks associated with the competitiveness of Generation IV. (authors)

  12. Integrated waste load allocation for river water pollution control under uncertainty: a case study of Tuojiang River, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiuping; Hou, Shuhua; Yao, Liming; Li, Chaozhi

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a bi-level optimization waste load allocation programming model under a fuzzy random environment to assist integrated river pollution control. Taking account of the leader-follower decision-making in the water function zones framework, the proposed approach examines the decision making feedback relationships and conflict coordination between the river basin authority and the regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) based on the Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium strategy. In the pollution control system, the river basin authority, as the leader, allocates equitable emissions rights to different subareas, and the then subarea EPA, as the followers, reallocates the limited resources to various functional zones to minimize pollution costs. This research also considers the uncertainty in the water pollution management, and the uncertain input information is expressed as fuzzy random variables. The proposed methodological approach is then applied to Tuojiang River in China and the bi-level linear programming model solutions are achieved using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition. Based on the waste load allocation scheme results and various scenario analyses and discussion, some operational policies are proposed to assist decision makers (DMs) cope with waste load allocation problem for integrated river pollution control for the overall benefits.

  13. An integrated appraisal of energy recovery options in the United Kingdom using solid recovered fuel derived from municipal solid waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, A; Smith, R; Hill, D; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T; Simms, N J

    2009-08-01

    This paper reports an integrated appraisal of options for utilising solid recovered fuels (SRF) (derived from municipal solid waste, MSW) in energy intensive industries within the United Kingdom (UK). Four potential co-combustion scenarios have been identified following discussions with industry stakeholders. These scenarios have been evaluated using (a) an existing energy and mass flow framework model, (b) a semi-quantitative risk analysis, (c) an environmental assessment and (d) a financial assessment. A summary of results from these evaluations for the four different scenarios is presented. For the given ranges of assumptions; SRF co-combustion with coal in cement kilns was found to be the optimal scenario followed by co-combustion of SRF in coal-fired power plants. The biogenic fraction in SRF (ca. 70%) reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions significantly ( approximately 2500 g CO(2) eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired cement kilns and approximately 1500 g CO(2) eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired power plants). Potential reductions in electricity or heat production occurred through using a lower calorific value (CV) fuel. This could be compensated for by savings in fuel costs (from SRF having a gate fee) and grants aimed at reducing GHG emission to encourage the use of fuels with high biomass fractions. Total revenues generated from coal-fired power plants appear to be the highest ( 95 pounds/t SRF) from the four scenarios. However overall, cement kilns appear to be the best option due to the low technological risks, environmental emissions and fuel cost. Additionally, cement kiln operators have good experience of handling waste derived fuels. The scenarios involving co-combustion of SRF with MSW and biomass were less favourable due to higher environmental risks and technical issues.

  14. An integrated appraisal of energy recovery options in the United Kingdom using solid recovered fuel derived from municipal solid waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, A.; Smith, R.; Hill, D.; Longhurst, P.J.; Pollard, S.J.T.; Simms, N.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports an integrated appraisal of options for utilising solid recovered fuels (SRF) (derived from municipal solid waste, MSW) in energy intensive industries within the United Kingdom (UK). Four potential co-combustion scenarios have been identified following discussions with industry stakeholders. These scenarios have been evaluated using (a) an existing energy and mass flow framework model, (b) a semi-quantitative risk analysis, (c) an environmental assessment and (d) a financial assessment. A summary of results from these evaluations for the four different scenarios is presented. For the given ranges of assumptions; SRF co-combustion with coal in cement kilns was found to be the optimal scenario followed by co-combustion of SRF in coal-fired power plants. The biogenic fraction in SRF (ca. 70%) reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions significantly (∼2500 g CO 2 eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired cement kilns and ∼1500 g CO 2 eqvt./kg DS SRF in co-fired power plants). Potential reductions in electricity or heat production occurred through using a lower calorific value (CV) fuel. This could be compensated for by savings in fuel costs (from SRF having a gate fee) and grants aimed at reducing GHG emission to encourage the use of fuels with high biomass fractions. Total revenues generated from coal-fired power plants appear to be the highest ( Pounds 95/t SRF) from the four scenarios. However overall, cement kilns appear to be the best option due to the low technological risks, environmental emissions and fuel cost. Additionally, cement kiln operators have good experience of handling waste derived fuels. The scenarios involving co-combustion of SRF with MSW and biomass were less favourable due to higher environmental risks and technical issues.

  15. Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

  16. Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC): Integrated Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Safety Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngblood, R.W.

    2010-01-01

    The concept of 'margin' has a long history in nuclear licensing and in the codification of good engineering practices. However, some traditional applications of 'margin' have been carried out for surrogate scenarios (such as design basis scenarios), without regard to the actual frequencies of those scenarios, and have been carried out with in a systematically conservative fashion. This means that the effectiveness of the application of the margin concept is determined in part by the original choice of surrogates, and is limited in any case by the degree of conservatism imposed on the evaluation. In the RISMC project, which is part of the Department of Energy's 'Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program' (LWRSP), we are developing a risk-informed characterization of safety margin. Beginning with the traditional discussion of 'margin' in terms of a 'load' (a physical challenge to system or component function) and a 'capacity' (the capability of that system or component to accommodate the challenge), we are developing the capability to characterize probabilistic load and capacity spectra, reflecting both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in system response. For example, the probabilistic load spectrum will reflect the frequency of challenges of a particular severity. Such a characterization is required if decision-making is to be informed optimally. However, in order to enable the quantification of probabilistic load spectra, existing analysis capability needs to be extended. Accordingly, the INL is working on a next-generation safety analysis capability whose design will allow for much more efficient parameter uncertainty analysis, and will enable a much better integration of reliability-related and phenomenology-related aspects of margin.

  17. Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

  18. Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Jeff G.

    This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates

  19. Integrating the flexibility of the average Serbian consumer as a virtual storage option into the planning of energy systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Batas-Bjelić Ilija R.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the integration of more variable renewable energy, the need for storage is growing. Rather than utility scale storage, smart grid technology (not restricted, but mainly involving bidirectional communication between the supply and demand side and dynamic pricing enables flexible consumption to be a virtual storage alternative for moderation of the production of variable renewable energy sources on the micro grid level. A study, motivated with energy loss allocation, electric demand and the legal framework that is characteristic for the average Serbian household, was performed using the HOMER software tool. The decision to shift or build deferrable load rather than sell on site generated energy from variable renewable energy sources to the grid was based on the consumer's net present cost minimization. Based on decreasing the grid sales hours of the micro grid system to the transmission grid from 3,498 to 2,009, it was shown that the demand response could be included in long-term planning of the virtual storage option. Demand responsive actions that could be interpreted as storage investment costs were quantified to 1€2 per year in this article. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 42009: Smart grid

  20. Exploring options for integrated nutrient management in semi-arid tropics using farmer field schools: a case study in Mbeere District, eastern Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onduru, D.D.; Preez, Du C.C.; Muchena, F.N.; Gachimbi, L.N.; Jager, de A.

    2008-01-01

    The farmer field school (FFS) approach was used in semi-arid eastern Kenya in the period 2002–2003 to explore technology options for addressing declining soil fertility and to institute learning processes on integrated nutrient management (INM).
    The farmer field school (FFS) approach was used in

  1. Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

  2. A new approach and computational algorithm for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for SED and SAD with applications to beryllium integral experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, P.M.; Youssef, M.Z.; Abdou, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A new approach for treating the sensitivity and uncertainty in the secondary energy distribution (SED) and the secondary angular distribution (SAD) has been developed, and the existing two-dimensional sensitivity/uncertainty analysis code, FORSS, was expanded to incorporate the new approach. The calculational algorithm was applied to the 9 Be(n,2n) cross section to study the effect of the current uncertainties in the SED and SAD of neutrons emitted from this reaction on the prediction accuracy of the tritium production rate from 6 Li(T 6 ) and 7 Li(T 7 ) in an engineering-oriented fusion integral experiment of the US Department of Energy/Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute Collaborative Program on Fusion Neutronics in which beryllium was used as a neutron multiplier. In addition, the analysis was extended to include the uncertainties in the integrated smooth cross sections of beryllium and other materials that constituted the test assembly used in the experiment. This comprehensive two-dimensional cross-section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis aimed at identifying the sources of discrepancies between calculated and measured values for T 6 and T 7

  3. Saccharification of recalcitrant biomass and integration options for lignocellulosic sugars from Catchlight Energy's sugar process (CLE Sugar).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Johnway; Anderson, Dwight; Levie, Benjamin

    2013-01-28

    been demonstrated to be effective on hardwood and herbaceous biomass, making it truly feedstock flexible. Different options exist for integrating lignocellulosic sugar into sugar-using operations. A sugar conversion plant may be adjacent to a CLE Sugar plant, and the CLE Sugar can be concentrated from the initial 10% sugar as needed. Concentrated sugars, however, can be shipped to remote sites such as ethanol plants or other sugar users. In such cases, options for shipping a dense form of sugars include (1) pretreated biomass with enzyme addition, (2) lignocellulosic sugar syrup, and (3) lignocellulosic sugar solid. These could provide the advantage of maximizing the use of existing assets.

  4. Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

  5. Uncertainty in oil projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limperopoulos, G.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

  6. Energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, Michael

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

  7. Links among available integral benchmarks and differential date evaluations, computational biases and uncertainties, and nuclear criticality safety biases on potential MOX production throughput

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goluoglu, S.; Hopper, C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Through the use of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's recently developed and applied sensitivity and uncertainty computational analysis techniques, this paper presents the relevance and importance of available and needed integral benchmarks and differential data evaluations impacting potential MOX production throughput determinations relative to low-moderated MOX fuel blending operations. The relevance and importance in the availability of or need for critical experiment benchmarks and data evaluations are presented in terms of computational biases as influenced by computational and experimental sensitivities and uncertainties relative to selected MOX production powder blending processes. Recent developments for estimating the safe margins of subcriticality for assuring nuclear criticality safety for process approval are presented. In addition, the impact of the safe margins (due to computational biases and uncertainties) on potential MOX production throughput will also be presented. (author)

  8. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

    2006-01-01

    ...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

  9. Strategic growth options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulatilaka, N.; Perotti, E.C.

    1998-01-01

    We provide a strategic rationale for growth options under uncertainty and imperfect corn-petition. In a market with strategic competition, investment confers a greater capability to take advantage of future growth opportunities. This strategic advantage leads to the capture of a greater share of the

  10. Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Ferrari, Matthew J; Mummah, Riley; Runge, Michael C; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J; Tildesley, Michael J; Probert, William J M; Shea, Katriona

    2017-05-30

    Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows that simplifying multiple alternative models into a smaller number of relevant groups (here, with shared structure) could streamline the decision-making process and may allow for a better integration of epidemiological modeling and decision making for policy.

  11. Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Bjornstad, Ottar; Ferrari, Matthew J.; Mummah, Riley; Runge, Michael C.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Tildesley, Michael J.; Probert, William J. M.; Shea, Katriona

    2017-01-01

    Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows that simplifying multiple alternative models into a smaller number of relevant groups (here, with shared structure) could streamline the decision-making process and may allow for a better integration of epidemiological modeling and decision making for policy.

  12. Integration of the Uncertainties of Anion and TOC Measurements into the Flammability Control Strategy for Sludge Batch 8 at the DWPF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T. B.

    2013-01-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been working with the Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) in the development and implementation of a flammability control strategy for DWPF's melter operation during the processing of Sludge Batch 8 (SB8). SRNL's support has been in response to technical task requests that have been made by SRR's Waste Solidification Engineering (WSE) organization. The flammability control strategy relies on measurements that are performed on Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) samples by the DWPF Laboratory. Measurements of nitrate, oxalate, formate, and total organic carbon (TOC) standards generated by the DWPF Laboratory are presented in this report, and an evaluation of the uncertainties of these measurements is provided. The impact of the uncertainties of these measurements on DWPF's strategy for controlling melter flammability also is evaluated. The strategy includes monitoring each SME batch for its nitrate content and its TOC content relative to the nitrate content and relative to the antifoam additions made during the preparation of the SME batch. A linearized approach for monitoring the relationship between TOC and nitrate is developed, equations are provided that integrate the measurement uncertainties into the flammability control strategy, and sample calculations for these equations are shown to illustrate the impact of the uncertainties on the flammability control strategy

  13. Uncertainty mitigation through the integration with production history matching; Mitigacao de incertezas atraves da integracao com ajuste de historico de producao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becerra, Gustavo G. [PETROBRAS Energia S.A. (Brazil); Maschio, Celio [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil); Schiozer, Denis [Universidade de Cuiaba (UNIC), MT (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The scope of this work is to present a methodology that integrates the uncertainty analysis with the history matching process in complex models. This procedure helps to detect critical subsurface attributes and their possible variation, in order to estimate a representative range of the additional reserves to be developed. It is not an objective to obtain the best deterministic model, but to mitigate uncertainties by using observed data. The methodology presented in this work is applied, on global scale, in a complex dynamic model based on Namorado Field data. The methodology allows the redefinition of the probability and levels of the dynamic and static attributes in order: to reduce the group of possible history matching obtaining more realistic models; to identify the existent uncertainty as a function of observed data; to decrease the uncertainty range of critical reservoir parameters; to increase the confidence in production forecast. One contribution of this work is to present a quantitative approach to increase the reliability on the use of reservoir simulation as an auxiliary tool in decision processes. (author)

  14. Integrating ecosystem services into the tropical timber value chain : Dutch policy options from an innovation system approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den J.; Ingram, V.J.; Bogaardt, M.J.; Harms, B.

    2013-01-01

    This WOt Working document explores the governance options available to the Dutch government for the promotion of the sustainable use and maintenance of ecosystem services in tropical timber value chains with Dutch links and how ecosystem services can be given a more explicit place in the public and

  15. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  16. Satisfaction and uncertainty in car-sharing decisions : an integration of hybrid choice and random regret-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, Jinhee; Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2017-01-01

    Car-sharing systems have attracted increasingly attention as one of several sustainable transportation systems. After joining a car-sharing organization, people can use a shared-car. Because sharing a car involves other members, there is some inherent uncertainty that originates from the possible

  17. Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delchini, Marc-Olivier G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Popov, Emilian L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Pointer, William David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Swiler, Laura P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-30

    Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results

  18. Rehabilitation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...

  19. Summary of International Waste Management Programs (LLNL Input to SNL L3 MS: System-Wide Integration and Site Selection Concepts for Future Disposition Options for HLW)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenberg, Harris R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Blink, James A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Halsey, William G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sutton, Mark [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2011-08-11

    The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) within the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) program has been tasked with investigating the disposal of the nation’s spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW) for a range of potential waste forms and geologic environments. This Lessons Learned task is part of a multi-laboratory effort, with this LLNL report providing input to a Level 3 SNL milestone (System-Wide Integration and Site Selection Concepts for Future Disposition Options for HLW). The work package number is: FTLL11UF0328; the work package title is: Technical Bases / Lessons Learned; the milestone number is: M41UF032802; and the milestone title is: “LLNL Input to SNL L3 MS: System-Wide Integration and Site Selection Concepts for Future Disposition Options for HLW”. The system-wide integration effort will integrate all aspects of waste management and disposal, integrating the waste generators, interim storage, transportation, and ultimate disposal at a repository site. The review of international experience in these areas is required to support future studies that address all of these components in an integrated manner. Note that this report is a snapshot of nuclear power infrastructure and international waste management programs that is current as of August 2011, with one notable exception. No attempt has been made to discuss the currently evolving world-wide response to the tragic consequences of the earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan on March 11, 2011, leaving more than 15,000 people dead and more than 8,000 people missing, and severely damaging the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex. Continuing efforts in FY 2012 will update the data, and summarize it in an Excel spreadsheet for easy comparison and assist in the knowledge management of the study cases.

  20. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-30

    14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

  1. The Pricing of Foreign Currency Futures Options

    OpenAIRE

    Chang Mo Ahn

    1996-01-01

    We derive semi-closed form solutions for the forward and futures exchange rates, European foreign currency options, currency forward options, and currency futures options when the domestic and foreign interest rate movements follow mean reverting diffusion processes. These solutions are consistent with the Black-Scholes option formula so that they can be easily applied. The impact of interest rate uncertainty on theoretical prices of currency futures options is too significant to be neglected.

  2. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  3. Integrating measuring uncertainty of tactile and optical coordinate measuring machines in the process capability assessment of micro injection moulding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; Gasparin, Stefania

    2010-01-01

    Process capability of micro injection moulding was investigated in this paper by calculating the Cp and Cpk statistics. Uncertainty of both optical and tactile measuring systems employed in the quality control of micro injection moulded products was assessed and compared with the specified...... tolerances. Limits in terms of manufacturing process capability as well as of suitability of such measuring systems when employed for micro production inspection were quantitatively determined....

  4. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  5. The application of financial options theory to electric utility decision making in integrated resource planning and maintenance shutdowns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felder, F.

    1995-01-01

    Increased competition in wholesale power generation will allow electric utilities to use financial models to improve their decision making. This competition will result in the creation of electricity spot, futures, and forward markets, which will provide necessary information for utility executives to used advance financial tools, such as random walk models and options theory. These models will allow executives to place a value on risk. Once this value is known, executives can determine how best to manage that risk, whether by entering into financial transactions, adjusting their operational and planning decisions, or both

  6. Supply Chain Bilateral Coordination with Option Contracts under Inflation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Wan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There exist obvious changes in price and demand during the inflationary period, both of which are regarded as the key factors leading to supply chain uncertainty. In this paper, we focus our discussion on price increase and demand contraction caused by inflation, integrate the effect of inflation and option contracts within the model framework, and analyze how to use option contracts to achieve supply chain coordination under inflation scenarios. We consider a one-period two-stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer and explore the effect of inflation on the optimal ordering and production decisions under three different types of contracts: wholesale price contracts, option contracts, and portfolio contracts. Moreover, we explore the impact of option contracts on the supply chain through using wholesale price contracts model as the benchmark. We find that the retailer prefers adopting portfolio contracts, but the supplier prefers providing option contracts under inflation scenarios. Ultimately, option contracts will be implemented owing to the supplier’s market dominant position. In addition, we discuss the supply chain bilateral coordination mechanism with option contracts from the perspectives of two members and derive that option contracts can coordinate the supply chain and achieve Pareto improvement under inflation scenarios.

  7. A research on verification of the models in the CONTAIN Code and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Moo Hwan; Seo, Kyoung Woo [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-15

    The final goal of this research is to evaluate synthetic results of DCH issue and expose accurate methodology to assess containment integrity about operating PWR in Korea. This research is aimed to expose methodology for synthetic resolution of the DCH issue for KSNPP, and make the guide of DCH issue for containment integrity which will be used to design to nuclear power plants.

  8. Nevada Transportation Options Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    P. GEHNER; E.M. WEAVER; L. FOSSUM

    2006-01-01

    of rail is restricted to approximately twelve, without upgrading public highways. There is high uncertainty as to what road upgrades and security/escorts the Nevada Department of Transportation would require to obtain an overweight/overdimensional permit. In addition, the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program has indicated that a larger cask weight than that analyzed in the Final Environmental Impact Statement may be required for naval shipments, resulting in additional costs for heavy-haul transport. These uncertainties result in a high cost and schedule risk. Option 3 assumes that the start of rail construction will be delayed until after construction authorization is received from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Similar to Option 2, Option 3 uses legal-weight truck shipments and limited heavy haul truck shipments to meet the same initial waste receipt rates as Option 1, until rail becomes available. By using heavy-haul truck for two years, Option 3 contains the same uncertainties and resultant high cost and schedule risk as Option 2. The cost and schedule of legal-weight truck transport are not included in this report as that will be evaluated in the report on national transportation

  9. Studying heat integration options for steam-gas power plants retrofitted with CO2 post-combustion capture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carapellucci, Roberto; Giordano, Lorena; Vaccarelli, Maura

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generation from fossil fuels has become a focal point of energy and climate change policies due to its central role in modern economics and its leading contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is regarded by the International Energy Agency as an essential part of the technology portfolio for carbon mitigation, as it can significantly reduce CO 2 emissions while ensuring electricity generation from fossil fuel power plants. This paper studies the retrofit of natural gas combined cycles (NGCCs) with an amine-based post-combustion carbon capture system. NGCCs with differently rated capacities were analysed under the assumptions that the heat requirement of the capture system was provided via a steam extraction upstream of the low-pressure steam turbine or by an auxiliary unit that was able to reduce the power plant derating related to the energy needs of the CCS system. Different types of auxiliary units were investigated based on power plant size, including a gas turbine cogeneration plant and a supplementary firing unit or boiler fed by natural gas or biomass. Energy and economic analyses were performed in order to evaluate the impact of type and layout of retrofit option on energy, environmental and economic performance of NGCCs with the CCS system. - Highlights: • Steam-gas power plants with an amine-based CO 2 capture unit are examined. • The study concerns three combined cycles with different capacity and plant layout. • Several options to fulfil the heat requirement of the CCS system are explored. • Steam extraction significantly reduces the capacity of steam-gas power plant. • An auxiliary combined heat and power unit allows to reduce power plant derating

  10. The climate-smart village approach: framework of an integrative strategy for scaling up adaptation options in agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod K. Aggarwal

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It aims to scale up and scale out the appropriate options and draw out lessons for policy makers from local to global levels. The approach incorporates evaluation of climate-smart technologies, practices, services, and processes relevant to local climatic risk management and identifies opportunities for maximizing adaptation gains from synergies across different interventions and recognizing potential maladaptation and trade-offs. It ensures that these are aligned with local knowledge and link into development plans. This paper describes early results in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to illustrate different examples of the CSV approach in diverse agroecological settings. Results from initial studies indicate that the CSV approach has a high potential for scaling out promising climate-smart agricultural technologies, practices, and services. Climate analog studies indicate that the lessons learned at the CSV sites would be relevant to adaptation planning in a large part of global agricultural land even under scenarios of climate change. Key barriers and opportunities for further work are also discussed.

  11. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  12. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  13. Integrated modeling of water supply and demand under management options and climate change scenarios in Chifeng City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu Hao; Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu; Hong Qian

    2015-01-01

    Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various...

  14. 2005 resource options report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, T.

    2005-01-01

    This resource options report (ROR) fulfils regulatory requirements in British Columbia's two-year resource planning process. It identifies a wide range of resources and technologies that could be used to meet BC Hydro's future electricity demand. As such, it facilitates a transparent public review of resource options which include both supply-side and demand-side options. The resource options that will be used in the 2005 integrated electricity plan (IEP) were characterized. This ROR also documents where there is a general agreement or disagreement on the resource type characterization, based on the First Nations and Stakeholder engagement. BC Hydro used current information to provide realistic ranges on volume and cost to characterize environmental and social attributes. The BC Hydro system was modelled to assess the benefit and cost of various resource options. The information resulting from this ROR and IEP will help in making decisions on how to structure competitive acquisition calls and to determine the level of transmission services needed to advance certain BC Hydro projects. The IEP forecasts the nature and quantity of domestic resources required over the next 20 years. A strategic direction on how those needs will be met has been created to guide the management of BC Hydro's energy resources. Supply-side options include near-commercial technologies such as energy storage, ocean waves, tidal, fuel cells and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology. Supply-side options also include natural gas, coal, biomass, geothermal, wind, and hydro. 120 refs., 39 tabs., 21 figs., 6 appendices

  15. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  16. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation

  17. A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, A.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation

  18. Heat integration options based on pinch and exergy analyses of a thermosolar and heat pump in a fish tinning industrial process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quijera, José Antonio; García, Araceli; Alriols, María González; Labidi, Jalel

    2013-01-01

    Thermosolar technology is being inserted gradually in industrial activities. In order to reach high energy efficiency, thermosolar can be linked to heat pump technology, combining more efficient conventional and renewable energy support for processes. Their integration in complex processes can be improved systematically through well established analytical tools, like pinch and exergy analyses. This work presents a methodological procedure for the analysis of different options of heat integration of a solar thermal and heat pump technologies in a tuna fish tinning process. The plant is located in a climatic zone where diffuse irradiation contributes more energy to the process than beam irradiation does. Pinch and exergy analyses are applied in the context of a low and middle temperatures, where the process demands big amounts of hot water and middle pressure steam. In order to recover internal heat, pinch analysis allows to understand the complexity of the heat exchange network of the process and to define thermal tendency objectives for energy optimization. Exergy analysis quantifies the variation that the quality of energy undergoes while it is used in the process according to the different way of integration. Both analytical tools, in combination with economical variables, provide a powerful methodological procedure finding the most favourable heat integration and, by this, they help in the technological decision making and in the design phase. - Highlights: ► Integration of solar thermal energy in batch canning process was assessed. ► Pinch and exergy analyses were used to determine the optimal energy supply configuration. ► Combination of heat pump and solar thermal energy improves the energy efficiency and reduces fossil fuel consumption

  19. Budget Options

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...

  20. Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

  1. Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT, ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC, ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf, canopy water interception coefficient (Wint, fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR, and effective soil rooting depth (SD characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

  2. Approaches of eco-innovation: Uncertainty assessment and the integration of green technology foresight and life cycle assessment as a policy tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, M.

    2005-01-01

    The perspective of eco-innovation is gaining increasing attention in European policy development as well as in a number of individual countries. As basis for this lies the acknowledgement that we on the one hand live in a technology andinnovation-oriented society and that some new technologies......-innovation in practice is made operational. A key issue in eco-innovation is to improveassessments and discussions of uncertainties and new environmental risks in connection with innovative technology developments. Approaches to this have as support for policy development processes been combined with environmentally...... oriented technologyforesight methods integrated with the perspective of life cycle assessments of new technologies. The paper describes a number of examples of these approaches and discusses further perspectives for an eco-innovation policy....

  3. Visualization of uncertainty and ensemble data: Exploration of climate modeling and weather forecast data with integrated ViSUS-CDAT systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Kristin; Pascucci, Valerio; Johhson, Chris; Wilson, Andrew; Bremer, Peer-Timo; Williams, Dean; Doutriaux, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists and meteorologists are working towards a better understanding of atmospheric conditions and global climate change. To explore the relationships present in numerical predictions of the atmosphere, ensemble datasets are produced that combine time- and spatially-varying simulations generated using multiple numeric models, sampled input conditions, and perturbed parameters. These data sets mitigate as well as describe the uncertainty present in the data by providing insight into the effects of parameter perturbation, sensitivity to initial conditions, and inconsistencies in model outcomes. As such, massive amounts of data are produced, creating challenges both in data analysis and in visualization. This work presents an approach to understanding ensembles by using a collection of statistical descriptors to summarize the data, and displaying these descriptors using variety of visualization techniques which are familiar to domain experts. The resulting techniques are integrated into the ViSUS/Climate Data and Analysis Tools (CDAT) system designed to provide a directly accessible, complex visualization framework to atmospheric researchers.

  4. Integrated age-structured length-based stock assessment model with uncertain process variances, structural uncertainty and environmental covariates: case of Central Baltic herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäntyniemi, Samu; Uusitalo, Laura; Peltonen, Heikki

    2013-01-01

    We developed a generic, age-structured, state-space stock assessment model that can be used as a platform for including information elicited from stakeholders. The model tracks the mean size-at-age and then uses it to explain rates of natural and fishing mortality. The fishery selectivity is divided...... to two components, which makes it possible to model the active seeking of the fleet for certain sizes of fish, as well as the selectivity of the gear itself. The model can account for uncertainties that are not currently accounted for in state-of-the-art models for integrated assessments: (i) The form...... of the stock–recruitment function is considered uncertain and is accounted for by using Bayesian model averaging. (ii) In addition to recruitment variation, process variation in natural mortality, growth parameters, and fishing mortality can also be treated as uncertain parameters...

  5. A research on the verification of models used in the computational codes and the uncertainty reduction method for the containment integrity evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Moo Hwan; Seo, Kyoung Woo [POSTECH, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-03-15

    In the probability approach, the calculated CCFPs of all the scenarios were zero, which meant that it was expected that for all the accident scenarios the maximum pressure load induced by DCH was lower than the containment failure pressure obtained from the fragility curve. Thus, it can be stated that the KSNP containment is robust to the DCH threat. And uncertainty of computer codes used to be two (deterministic and probabilistic) approaches were reduced by the sensitivity tests and the research with the verification and comparison of the DCH models in each code. So, this research was to evaluate synthetic result of DCH issue and expose accurate methodology to assess containment integrity about operating PWR in Korea.

  6. The next generation of urban MACCs. Reassessing the cost-effectiveness of urban mitigation options by integrating a systemic approach and social costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saujot, Mathieu; Lefèvre, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Many cities are implementing policies and climate action plans. Yet local climate policies suffer from a lack of scientific understanding and evaluation methods able to support the definition of efficient mitigation strategies. The purpose of this paper is to build on classical approaches in the energy policy field that exist at the national and international level to propose an urban MACCs methodology able to fulfill this lack and inform local debates. The methodology is an extension of static “expert-based” MACCs; it combines a land use transport integrated model and an abatement cost methodology that integrates co-benefits, and takes into account the spatial and systemic dimensions of cities. The methodology is implemented for the transportation sector of a mid-sized European city (Grenoble, France). Our results present the cost-effectiveness and political feasibility of several proposed measures. We find that the inclusion of co-benefits can profoundly change the cost-benefit assessment of transport mitigation options. Moreover we underline the key parameters determining the cost-effectiveness ranking of mitigation options. These urban MACCs aim to serve as a bridge between urban planning and mitigation policies and can thus contribute to strengthen and align sustainable and climate change agendas at the local level. - Highlights: •Local climate policies lack scientific understanding for prioritizing mitigation actions. •We develop a method to evaluate cost-effectiveness of urban transportation actions. •This method combines urban modeling and MACCs to inform urban planning. •Abatement costs from its application to a mid-sized city are presented. •The impact of the inclusion of co-benefits is analyzed.

  7. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  8. Mass discharge estimation from contaminated sites: Multi-model solutions for assessment of conceptual uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, N. I.; Troldborg, M.; McKnight, U. S.; Binning, P. J.; Bjerg, P. L.

    2012-04-01

    the parametric uncertainty. To quantify the conceptual uncertainty from a given site, we combine the outputs from the different conceptual models using Bayesian model averaging. The weight for each model is obtained by integrating available data and expert knowledge using Bayesian belief networks. The multi-model approach is applied to a contaminated site. At the site a DNAPL (dense non aqueous phase liquid) spill consisting of PCE (perchloroethylene) has contaminated a fractured clay till aquitard overlaying a limestone aquifer. The exact shape and nature of the source is unknown and so is the importance of transport in the fractures. The result of the multi-model approach is a visual representation of the uncertainty of the mass discharge estimates for the site which can be used to support the management options.

  9. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  10. Effectiveness of active self-care complementary and integrative medicine therapies: options for the management of chronic pain symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Cindy; Lee, Courtney; Freilich, Daniel

    2014-04-01

    Chronic pain management typically consists of prescription medications or provider-based, behavioral, or interventional procedures that are often ineffective, may be costly, and can be associated with undesirable side effects. Because chronic pain affects the whole person (body, mind, and spirit), patient-centered complementary and integrative medicine (CIM) therapies that acknowledge the patients' roles in their own healing processes have the potential to provide more efficient and comprehensive chronic pain management. Active self-care CIM (ACT-CIM) therapies allow for a more diverse, patient-centered treatment of complex symptoms, promote self-management, and are relatively safe and cost-effective. To date, there are no systematic reviews examining the full range of ACT-CIM used for chronic pain symptom management. A systematic review was conducted, using Samueli Institute's Rapid Evidence Assessment of the Literature methodology, to rigorously assess both the quality of the research on ACT-CIM modalities and the evidence for their efficacy and effectiveness in treating chronic pain symptoms. A working group of subject matter experts was also convened to evaluate the overall literature pool and develop recommendations for the use and implementation of these modalities. Following key database searches, 146 randomized controlled trials were included in the review, 18 of which directly compared ACT-CIM approaches with one another. This article summarizes the current evidence, quality, effectiveness, and safety of these modalities. Recommendations and next steps to move this field of research forward are also discussed. The entire scope of the review is detailed throughout the current Pain Medicine supplement. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Technical feasibility of an Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) as a future option for fast reactor cycles. Integrate a small metal-fueled fast reactor and pyroprocessing facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Nobuo

    2017-01-01

    Integral Fast Reactor that integrated fast reactor and pyrorocessing facilities developed by Argonne National Laboratory in the U.S. is an excellent nuclear fuel cycle system for passive safety, nuclear non-proliferation, and reduction in radioactive waste. In addition, this system can be considered as a technology applicable to the treatment of the fuel debris caused by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident. This study assessed the time required for debris processing, safety of the facilities, and construction cost when using this technology, and examined technological possibility including future technological issues. In a small metal-fueled reactor, it is important to design the core that achieves both of reduction in combustion reactivity and reduction in coolant reactivity. In system design, calorimetric analysis, structure soundness assessment, seismic feasibility establishment study, etc. are important. Regarding safety, research and testing are necessary on the capabilities of passive reactor shutdown and reactor core cooling as well as measures for avoiding re-criticality, even when emergency stop has failed. In dry reprocessing system, studies on electrolytic reduction and electrolytic refining process for treating the debris with compositions different from those of normal fuel are necessary. (A.O.)

  12. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  13. Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

    2016-12-01

    Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro

  14. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  15. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  16. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  17. Influence of Modelling Options in RELAP5/SCDAPSIM and MAAP4 Computer Codes on Core Melt Progression and Reactor Pressure Vessel Integrity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siniša Šadek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available RELAP5/SCDAPSIM and MAAP4 are two widely used severe accident computer codes for the integral analysis of the core and the reactor pressure vessel behaviour following the core degradation. The objective of the paper is the comparison of code results obtained by application of different modelling options and the evaluation of influence of thermal hydraulic behaviour of the plant on core damage progression. The analysed transient was postulated station blackout in NPP Krško with a leakage from reactor coolant pump seals. Two groups of calculations were performed where each group had a different break area and, thus, a different leakage rate. Analyses have shown that MAAP4 results were more sensitive to varying thermal hydraulic conditions in the primary system. User-defined parameters had to be carefully selected when the MAAP4 model was developed, in contrast to the RELAP5/SCDAPSIM model where those parameters did not have any significant impact on final results.

  18. Developmental assessment of RELAP5/MOD3.1 with separate-effect and integral test experiments: model changes and options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analytis, G.T.

    1996-04-01

    A summary of modifications and options introduced in RELAP5/MOD3.1 (R5M3.1) is presented and it is shown that the predicting capabilities of the modified version of the code are greatly improved, while the general philosophy we followed in arriving at these modifications is also outlined. These changes which are the same ones we implemented in the past in the version 7j of the code, include 2 different heat transfer packages (one of them activated during reflooding), modification of the low mass-flux Groeneveld CHF look-up table and of the dispersed flow interfacial area (and shear) as well as of the criterion for transition into and out from this regime, almost complete elimination of the under-relaxation schemes of the interfacial closure coefficients etc. The modified R5M3.1 code is assessed against a number of separate-effect and integral test experiments and in contrast to the frozen version, is shown to result in physically sound predictions which are much closer to the measurements, while almost all the predicted variables are free of unphysical spurious oscillations. The modifications introduced solve a number of problems associated with the frozen version of the code and result in a version which can be confidently used both for SB-LOCA and LB-LOCA analyses. (author) 7 figs., 20 refs

  19. Buridan's Ass and a Menu of Options.

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Boyarchenko

    2005-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to study how a menu of options affects decisions of a rational agent facing uncertainty over future payoff streams. Using the real options approach, we demonstrate that multiple options not only increase the barrier which the underlying stochastic variable has to reach in order investment became optimal, but cause the investor to be inactive even when the cost of investment is vanishing. As a technical contribution, the paper suggests a robust method of solution of a ...

  20. Research of relationship between uncertainty and investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MENG Li; WANG Ding-wei

    2005-01-01

    This study focuses on revealing the relationship between uncertainty and investment probability through real option model involving investment critical trigger and project earning. Use of Matlab software on the experimental results showing that project earning volatility influences investment probability, led the authors to conclude that this notion is not always correct, as increasing uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment, and that in certain situation, increasing uncertainty actually increases the investment probability and so, should have positive impact on investment.

  1. Strategy under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

    1997-01-01

    At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

  2. Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

    2010-05-01

    Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

  3. Energy exotic options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

  4. Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

    2014-01-01

    As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

  5. Compositional diversity of rehabilitated tropical lands supports multiple ecosystem services and buffers uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoke, Thomas; Paul, Carola; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Calvas, Baltazar; Castro, Luz Maria; Härtl, Fabian; Döllerer, Martin; Hamer, Ute; Windhorst, David; Wiersma, Yolanda F.; Curatola Fernández, Giulia F.; Obermeier, Wolfgang A.; Adams, Julia; Breuer, Lutz; Mosandl, Reinhard; Beck, Erwin; Weber, Michael; Stimm, Bernd; Haber, Wolfgang; Fürst, Christine; Bendix, Jörg

    2016-01-01

    High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services. PMID:27292766

  6. Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...

  7. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  8. Quantification of design margins and safety factors based on the prediction uncertainty in tritium production rate from fusion integral experiments of the USDOE/JAERI collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youssef, M.Z.; Konno, C.; Maekawa, F.; Ikeda, Y.; Kosako, K.; Nakagawa, M.; Mori, T.; Maekawa, H.

    1995-01-01

    Several fusion integral experiments were performed within a collaboration between the USA and Japan on fusion breeder neutronics aimed at verifying the prediction accuracy of key neutronics parameters in a fusion reactor blanket based on current neutron transport codes and basic nuclear databases. The focus has been on the tritium production rate (TRP) as an important design parameter to resolve the issue of tritium self-sufficiency in a fusion reactor. In this paper, the calculational and experimental uncertainties (errors) in local TPR in each experiment performed i were interpolated and propagated to estimate the prediction uncertainty u i in the line-integrated TPR and its standard deviation σ i . The measured data are based on Li-glass and NE213 detectors. From the quantities u i and σ i , normalized density functions (NDFs) were constructed, considering all the experiments and their associated analyses performed independently by the UCLA and JAERI. Several statistical parameters were derived, including the mean prediction uncertainties u and the possible spread ±σ u around them. Design margins and safety factors were derived from these NDFs. Distinction was made between the results obtained by UCLA and JAERI and between calculational results based on the discrete ordinates and Monte Carlo methods. The prediction uncertainties, their standard deviations and the design margins and safety factors were derived for the line-integrated TPR from Li-6 T 6 , and Li-7 T 7 . These parameters were used to estimate the corresponding uncertainties and safety factor for the line-integrated TPR from natural lithium T n . (orig.)

  9. Options theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markland, J.T.

    1992-01-01

    Techniques used in conventional project appraisal are mathematically very simple in comparison to those used in reservoir modelling, and in the geosciences. Clearly it would be possible to value assets in mathematically more sophisticated ways if it were meaningful and worthwhile so to do. The DCf approach in common use has recognized limitations; the inability to select a meaningful discount rate being particularly significant. Financial Theory has advanced enormously over the last few years, along with computational techniques, and methods are beginning to appear which may change the way we do project evaluations in practice. The starting point for all of this was a paper by Black and Scholes, which asserts that almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as options of varying degrees of complexity. Although the financial presentation may be unfamiliar to engineers and geoscientists, some of the concepts used will not be. This paper outlines, in plain English, the basis of option pricing theory for assessing the market value of a project. it also attempts to assess the future role of this type of approach in practical Petroleum Exploration and Engineering economics. Reference is made to relevant published Natural Resource literature

  10. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  11. Integrating urban recharge uncertainty into standard groundwater modeling practice: A case study on water main break predictions for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, Austin, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinner, K.; Teasley, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    Groundwater models serve as integral tools for understanding flow processes and informing stakeholders and policy makers in management decisions. Historically, these models tended towards a deterministic nature, relying on historical data to predict and inform future decisions based on model outputs. This research works towards developing a stochastic method of modeling recharge inputs from pipe main break predictions in an existing groundwater model, which subsequently generates desired outputs incorporating future uncertainty rather than deterministic data. The case study for this research is the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas. Researchers and water resource professionals have modeled the Edwards Aquifer for decades due to its high water quality, fragile ecosystem, and stakeholder interest. The original case study and model that this research is built upon was developed as a co-design problem with regional stakeholders and the model outcomes are generated specifically for communication with policy makers and managers. Recently, research in the Barton Springs segment demonstrated a significant contribution of urban, or anthropogenic, recharge to the aquifer, particularly during dry period, using deterministic data sets. Due to social and ecological importance of urban water loss to recharge, this study develops an evaluation method to help predicted pipe breaks and their related recharge contribution within the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. To benefit groundwater management decision processes, the performance measures captured in the model results, such as springflow, head levels, storage, and others, were determined by previous work in elicitation of problem framing to determine stakeholder interests and concerns. The results of the previous deterministic model and the stochastic model are compared to determine gains to stakeholder knowledge through the additional modeling

  12. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  13. Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

    2016-12-01

    Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

  14. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  15. Balancing uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horton, S.G.

    1984-01-01

    The author presents a system planning perspective on how Ontario Hydro is viewing the future, and where nuclear power fits into that future. Before the 1980s Ontario experienced a steady seven percent per year growth in power demand. Shifting patterns of energy demand have made planning much more difficult. In the early 80s growth in demand fell short of predictions. It is hard to tell what level of demand to plan for in the future. With respect to any energy option, a utility planner or board of directors would want to know when it will be delivered, what it will cost when it is delivered, what it will cost to operate, how long it will last as an economic energy producer, and how all of these factors will be affected by future changes. Ontario Hydro's studies show that nuclear power continues to be the preferred option for large blocks of base load capacity. By 1996 Ontario Hydro will have saved about 10 billion 1983 dollars by using nuclear power. The utility continues to study both sides of the supply-demand equation, looking at conservation as an alternative to constructing new generating facilities and attempting to become aware of shifts in demand trends as soon as they happen

  16. Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk From Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water Beale Air Force Base in California: Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K.T.

    1999-01-01

    Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability after applying a unified probabilistic approach to the distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such an approach was applied to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA(sub g)) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA(sub c)) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA(sub G) based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA, based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were and lt;10(sup -6) and and lt;10(sup -4), respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were and gt;10(sup -5) and and gt;10(sup -4), respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely occur due any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The unified approach illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action

  17. Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohn, Klaus; Misund, Baard

    2009-01-01

    The standard theory of irreversible investments and real options suggests a negative relation between investment and uncertainty. Richer models with compound option structures open for a positive relationship. This paper presents a micro-econometric study of corporate investment and uncertainty in a period of market turbulence and restructuring in the international oil and gas industry. Based on data for 115 companies over the period 1992-2005, we estimate four different specifications of the q model of investment, with robust results for the uncertainty variables. The estimated models suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty creates a bottleneck for oil and gas investment and production, whereas industry-specific uncertainty has a stimulating effect. (author)

  18. Option Derivatives in Electricity Hedging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Pavlátka

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the high volatility of electricity prices, there is still little demand for electricity power options, and the liquidity on the power exchanges of these power derivatives is quite low. One of the reasons is the uncertainty about how to evaluate these electricity options and about finding the right fair value of this product. Hedging of electricity is associated mainly with products such as futures and forwards. However, due to new trends in electricity trading and hedging, it is also useful to think more about options and the principles for working with them in hedging various portfolio positions and counterparties. We can quite often encounter a situation when we need to have a perfect hedge for our customer’s (end user consuming electricity portfolio, or we have to evaluate the volumetric risk (inability of a customer to predict consumption, which is very similar to selling options. Now comes the moment to compare the effects of using options or futures to hedge these open positions. From a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available and the simplest method for evaluating option premiums, but there are some limitations that we have to consider.

  19. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  20. Option valuation for energy issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostertag, K.; Llerena, P.; Richard, A.

    2004-01-01

    In many industrial and economic situations, decision processes, both individual and collective, have to simultaneously face uncertainty and irreversibility of some kind. This is particularly valid for energy choices if they are linked to technological alternatives. The purpose of this book is to highlight specific aspects of these situations. This is done from the particular perspective of option valuation. The contributions to this book grew out of an international workshop on ''Option valuation in energy and environmental issues'' held at the Fraunhofer ISI in February 2003. This workshop brought together reseachers from energy economics, but also researchers working on option valuation in other empirical fields or with a more theoretical perspective. This is reflected in the organisation of the book, which starts with some theory-oriented contributions and subsequently presents more applied contributions in the field of energy economics with an extension to water infrastructure in the annex. (orig.)

  1. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  2. Development of an integrated optimization method for analyzing effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty – A case study of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, S.W.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Hao, Q.; Nie, S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer method is developed. • The method can tackle uncertainties of fuzzy sets, crisp and functional intervals. • The method is applied to a real case of planning energy system. • Effects of energy-conversion efficiency on energy systems are analyzed. • Results can support policy enactment of conversion efficiency improvement. - Abstract: In this study, a superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer programming (SFMP) method is developed for analyzing the effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty. SFMP can effectively tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets, crisp intervals and functional intervals, it also can directly reflect relationships among multiple fuzzy sets through varying superiority and inferiority degrees with a high computational efficiency. Then the developed SFMP is applied to a real case of planning energy system for Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, where multiple scenarios related to different energy-conversion efficiency are concerned. Results for energy processing, energy conversion, capacity expansion, pollutant emission and system cost have been generated. It is proved that SFMP is an effective approach to deal with the uncertainties in energy systems with interactive and uncertain characteristics. A variety of uncertainties existed in energy conversion processes and impact factors could affect the modeling result. Results show that improvement of energy-conversion efficiency can effectively facilitate reducing energy resources consumption, optimizing energy generation pattern, decreasing capacity expansion, as well as mitigating pollutant emissions. Results also reveal that, for the study area, electric power has a highest energy saving potential among heating, oil processing, coal washing and refining. Results can help decision makers to generate desired alternatives that can facilitate policy enactment of conversion efficiency

  3. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  4. Lobatto-Milstein Numerical Method in Application of Uncertainty Investment of Solar Power Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud A. Eissa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a growing interest in the production of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES. The RES investment is characterized by uncertainty, which is long-term, costly and depends on feed-in tariff and support schemes. In this paper, we address the real option valuation (ROV of a solar power plant investment. The real option framework is investigated. This framework considers the renewable certificate price and, further, the cost of delay between establishing and operating the solar power plant. The optimal time of launching the project and assessing the value of the deferred option are discussed. The new three-stage numerical methods are constructed, the Lobatto3C-Milstein (L3CM methods. The numerical methods are integrated with the concept of Black–Scholes option pricing theory and applied in option valuation for solar energy investment with uncertainty. The numerical results of the L3CM, finite difference and Monte Carlo methods are compared to show the efficiency of our methods. Our dataset refers to the Arab Republic of Egypt.

  5. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  6. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doell, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008;

  7. Shale gas wastewater management under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y; Duncan, Ian J

    2016-01-01

    This work presents an optimization framework for evaluating different wastewater treatment/disposal options for water management during hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations. This framework takes into account both cost-effectiveness and system uncertainty. HF has enabled rapid development of shale gas resources. However, wastewater management has been one of the most contentious and widely publicized issues in shale gas production. The flowback and produced water (known as FP water) generated by HF may pose a serious risk to the surrounding environment and public health because this wastewater usually contains many toxic chemicals and high levels of total dissolved solids (TDS). Various treatment/disposal options are available for FP water management, such as underground injection, hazardous wastewater treatment plants, and/or reuse. In order to cost-effectively plan FP water management practices, including allocating FP water to different options and planning treatment facility capacity expansion, an optimization model named UO-FPW is developed in this study. The UO-FPW model can handle the uncertain information expressed in the form of fuzzy membership functions and probability density functions in the modeling parameters. The UO-FPW model is applied to a representative hypothetical case study to demonstrate its applicability in practice. The modeling results reflect the tradeoffs between economic objective (i.e., minimizing total-system cost) and system reliability (i.e., risk of violating fuzzy and/or random constraints, and meeting FP water treatment/disposal requirements). Using the developed optimization model, decision makers can make and adjust appropriate FP water management strategies through refining the values of feasibility degrees for fuzzy constraints and the probability levels for random constraints if the solutions are not satisfactory. The optimization model can be easily integrated into decision support systems for shale oil/gas lifecycle

  8. Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tamidy

    2016-03-01

    of standardizing the underlying asset 4- Impossibility of creating cross supply of the underlying asset In addition, after the introduction of the model parameters, we offers method calculating of the volatility (standard deviation price with using historical data (time series. Parameters of Blk- Scholes model are introduced and option contract of selected product will pricing. After effect of the rise and fall agreement prices (in the form of 9-defined scenario on the price of put option and sales option are studied. In this study, after forming the hypothetical option market for the Canola, option pricing is done. In this section, the criteria for selecting an appropriate asset base is expressed for option contract. The Black–Scholes model is introduced for the valuation of call option and European put option contract. After introducing the model parameters, the calculation of volatility (standard deviation of price using historical data (time series is presented .To achieve this aim, the Black – Scholes model was used under 9 strike price scenario of 5, 10, 15, 20 percent above; 5, 10, 15, and 20 percent lower and finally equal to current prices. This model was run in Excel 2010 and Derivea gem 1.5. Results and Discussion: The results showed 43% price volatility for canola that reflects uncertainty in its price. In the next stage of pricing, the purchase and sale of the selected product was done under the nine price scenarios. The results showed that the highest authority to purchase option was for scenario K1 and the highest buy option was for the K9 scenario. The least expensive buy option is K9 and the least expensive sell option is K1. Conclusion: The results show that the increase of strike price under these scenarios leads to a decrease of call option price and decrease of put option price. In addition, the farmers, businesspersons and agricultural products transforming factories with a different degree of risk disclosure can participate in these markets

  9. The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the implications of uncertainty in the carbon cycle for the cost of stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations. Using a state of the art integrated assessment model, we find that uncertainty in our understanding of the carbon cycle has significant implications for the costs of a climate stabilization policy, with cost differences denominated in trillions of dollars. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle is equivalent to a change in concentration target of up to 100 ppmv. The impact of carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than those for climate sensitivity, and broadly comparable to the effect of uncertainty in technology availability

  10. Investment decisions in environment of uncertainties integrated to the viability analysis of the distribution and transmission projects; Decisao de investimentos em ambiente de incertezas integrada a analise de viabilidade de projetos de transmissao e distribuicao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gazzi, L.M.P. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Curso de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica; Ramos, D.S. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    This work intends to support the necessary investment decisions to the expansion of the network of 138/88 kV, belonging to the electric energy distribution companies. In the economic and financial analysis, are considered the needs of the Regulator for the tariff recognition of an investment, using economic engineering techniques to evaluate the feedback of the invested capital but considering an uncertainty environment, where the best decision depends on exogenous variables to the traditional planning process. In order to make viable the inclusion of the main variables of random behavior that condition the economic and financial performances of the analyzed alternatives for decision making, it was chosen the utilization of the methodology based on 'Real Options', which is an used technique in the financial market for some time.

  11. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  12. Estimation of forest aboveground biomass and uncertainties by integration of field measurements, airborne LiDAR, and SAR and optical satellite data in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbazaev, Mikhail; Thiel, Christian; Cremer, Felix; Dubayah, Ralph; Migliavacca, Mirco; Reichstein, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

    2018-02-21

    Information on the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) over large areas is needed for understanding and managing processes involved in the carbon cycle and supporting international policies for climate change mitigation and adaption. Furthermore, these products provide important baseline data for the development of sustainable management strategies to local stakeholders. The use of remote sensing data can provide spatially explicit information of AGB from local to global scales. In this study, we mapped national Mexican forest AGB using satellite remote sensing data and a machine learning approach. We modelled AGB using two scenarios: (1) extensive national forest inventory (NFI), and (2) airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) as reference data. Finally, we propagated uncertainties from field measurements to LiDAR-derived AGB and to the national wall-to-wall forest AGB map. The estimated AGB maps (NFI- and LiDAR-calibrated) showed similar goodness-of-fit statistics (R 2 , Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)) at three different scales compared to the independent validation data set. We observed different spatial patterns of AGB in tropical dense forests, where no or limited number of NFI data were available, with higher AGB values in the LiDAR-calibrated map. We estimated much higher uncertainties in the AGB maps based on two-stage up-scaling method (i.e., from field measurements to LiDAR and from LiDAR-based estimates to satellite imagery) compared to the traditional field to satellite up-scaling. By removing LiDAR-based AGB pixels with high uncertainties, it was possible to estimate national forest AGB with similar uncertainties as calibrated with NFI data only. Since LiDAR data can be acquired much faster and for much larger areas compared to field inventory data, LiDAR is attractive for repetitive large scale AGB mapping. In this study, we showed that two-stage up-scaling methods for AGB estimation over large areas need to be analyzed and validated

  13. Corporate liquidity and dividend policy under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Koussis, Nicos; Martzoukos, Spiros H.; Trigeorgis, Lenos

    2016-01-01

    We examine optimal liquidity (retained earnings) and dividend choice incorporating debt financing with risk of default and bankruptcy costs as well as growth options under revenue uncertainty. We revisit the conditions for dividend policy irrelevancy and the broader role of retained earnings and dividends. Retained earnings have a net positive impact on firm value in the presence of growth options, high external financing costs and low default risk. High levels of retained earnings enhance de...

  14. Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierangelo Ciurlia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.

  15. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  16. An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model and AHP Weighting Uncertainty Analysis for Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianfa Wu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The transformation of the power generation industry from coal-based to more sustainable energy sources is an irreversible trend. In China, the coal-fired power plant, as the main electric power supply facility at present, needs to know its own sustainability level to face the future competition. A hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM model is proposed in this paper to assess the sustainability levels of the existing Chinese coal-fired power units. The areal grey relational analysis (AGRA method is involved in the hybrid model, and a combined weighting method is used to determine the priorities of the criteria. The combining weight fuses the fuzzy rough set (FRS and entropy objective weighting method together with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP subjective weighting method by game theory. Moreover, an AHP weighting uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo (MC simulation is introduced to measure the uncertainty of the results, and a 95 percent confidence interval (CI is defined as the uncertainty measurement of the alternatives. A case study about eight coal-fired power units is carried out with a criteria system, which contains five aspects in an operational perspective, such as the flexibility, economic, environmental, reliability and technical criterion. The sustainability assessment is performed at the unit level, and the results give a priority rank of the eight alternatives; additionally, the uncertainty analysis supplies the extra information from a statistical perspective. This work expands a novel hybrid MCDM method to the sustainability assessment of the power generation systems, and it may be a benefit to the energy enterprises in assessing the sustainability at the unit level and enhance its ability in future sustainable development.

  17. Treatment Options for Retinoblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other places in the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  18. A tool for efficient, model-independent management optimization under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Barlow, Paul M.; Welter, Dave E.

    2018-01-01

    To fill a need for risk-based environmental management optimization, we have developed PESTPP-OPT, a model-independent tool for resource management optimization under uncertainty. PESTPP-OPT solves a sequential linear programming (SLP) problem and also implements (optional) efficient, “on-the-fly” (without user intervention) first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty techniques to estimate model-derived constraint uncertainty. Combined with a user-specified risk value, the constraint uncertainty estimates are used to form chance-constraints for the SLP solution process, so that any optimal solution includes contributions from model input and observation uncertainty. In this way, a “single answer” that includes uncertainty is yielded from the modeling analysis. PESTPP-OPT uses the familiar PEST/PEST++ model interface protocols, which makes it widely applicable to many modeling analyses. The use of PESTPP-OPT is demonstrated with a synthetic, integrated surface-water/groundwater model. The function and implications of chance constraints for this synthetic model are discussed.

  19. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  20. Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty - Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Xu, L P

    2018-07-01

    A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO 2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  2. Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

    2016-05-24

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

  3. Contract Design: Financial Options and Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. When designing healthcare options contractors are faced with a variety of financial options. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. This article is the second in a row of three that are all published in this issue and contribute to a specific issue in designing healthcare contracts. The first dealt with the organisation of contracts and information asymmetries, while part 3 concludes with the question of risk management and evaluation. The specific research question of this second article focusses on the financial options and reimbursement schemes that are available to define healthcare contracts. A healthcare contract is a relational contract, which determines the level of reimbursement, the scope of services and the quality between service providers and payers, taking account of the risks relating to population and performance. A relational contract is an agreement based upon assumption of a longer timeframe. A major obstacle to the practical implementation of healthcare contracts is the prognosis of the inflows and outflows due to the actuarial risks of the insured population. Financing conditions and reimbursement arrangements that are based on a prospectively determined fixed price, have a significant drawback: it is very difficult to take the differences in health status and the utilisation of distinct insured clientele

  4. Australian Asian Options

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Moreno; Javier F. Navas

    2003-01-01

    We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its average and viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian Stock Exchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. For geometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices. For arithmetic means, we use different approximations that produce very similar results.

  5. Options with Extreme Strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingjiong Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

  6. Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compernolle, T.; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria; Nunes, Claudia; Thijssen, J.J.J.

    2018-01-01

    This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. It shows that, despite claims made in the literature, the method used to derive an analytical solution in one dimensional problems cannot be straightforwardly extended to problems with two

  7. Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer

    One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.

  8. Model uncertainties in top-quark physics

    CERN Document Server

    Seidel, Markus

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studying the top quark in pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV. Due to the large integrated luminosity, precision measurements of production cross-sections and properties are often limited by systematic uncertainties. An overview of the modeling uncertainties for simulated events is given in this report.

  9. Tarapur's nuclear fuel uncertainty and India's policy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, R.R.

    1978-01-01

    The Indo-US agreement over the turnkey Project of the Tarapur Atomic Power Station (TAPS) signed in 1963 is being reintepreted by the American Government from 'non-proliferation' aspect, particularly after the Pokharan peaceful nuclear explosion in 1974. With the ratification of the new Non-Proliferation Act by the American Congress, the supply of enriched uranium fuel for the TAPS has become uncertain, as India is not prepared to accept comprehensive safeguards on all domestic nuclear facilities. If the contractual obligations for fuel supply and transport of spent fuel back to U.S. are not fulfilled, it is pointed out, that India will have to start reprocessing spent fuel and recycle plutonium. (K.M.)

  10. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  11. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  12. An integrated GIS-based interval-probabilistic programming model for land-use planning management under uncertainty--a case study at Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shasha; Zhou, Min; Guan, Xingliang; Tao, Lizao

    2015-03-01

    A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower

  13. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  14. Smoothing the payoff for efficient computation of Basket option prices

    KAUST Repository

    Bayer, Christian; Siebenmorgen, Markus; Tempone, Raul

    2017-01-01

    We consider the problem of pricing basket options in a multivariate Black–Scholes or Variance-Gamma model. From a numerical point of view, pricing such options corresponds to moderate and high-dimensional numerical integration problems with non

  15. INVESTMENT IN ANTIVIRAL DRUGS : A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, Arthur E.; Lugner, Anna K.; Feenstra, Talitha L.

    2010-01-01

    Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations

  16. Uncertainties and severe-accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies

  17. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

  18. Finite Project Life and Uncertainty Effects on Investment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gryglewicz, S.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment.Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual.However, in today.s economy

  19. Evaluation of stormwater micropollutant source control and end-of-pipe control strategies using an uncertainty-calibrated integrated dynamic simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Ledin, Anna

    2015-01-01

    (copper, zinc) and organic compounds (fluoranthene). MP fluxes were estimated by using an integrated dynamic model, in combination with stormwater quality measurements. MP sources were identified by using GIS land usage data, runoff quality was simulated by using a conceptual accumulation/washoff model......The estimation of micropollutant (MP) fluxes in stormwater systems is a fundamental prerequisite when preparing strategies to reduce stormwater MP discharges to natural waters. Dynamic integrated models can be important tools in this step, as they can be used to integrate the limited data provided...... by monitoring campaigns and to evaluate the performance of different strategies based on model simulation results. This study presents an example where six different control strategies, including both source-control and end-of-pipe treatment, were compared. The comparison focused on fluxes of heavy metals...

  20. Sistemas Integrados de energías con fuentes renovables, requisitos y opciones. Integrated systems of energy with renewable sources, requirements and options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Sarmiento Sera

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available En el presente reporte se consideró una instalación conectada a la red eléctrica en la isla de Cuba. Se tenía el interés de introducir un determinado % de energía a partir de fuentes renovables, y se poseía un determinado potencial de energía eólica y fotovoltaica. Se analizaron los requisitos y opciones energéticas, se realizaron simulaciones de alternativas con el programa HOMER y se concluyó con la determinación de las condiciones o potenciales de las fuentes renovables para la recomendación de cada opción energética, y se presentaron los resultados de forma gráfica y fácil comprensión. Se ofreció un análisis de las posibilidades reales que en el ámbito de una localidad, pueden aprovecharse en función de diversificar de manera sostenible, el esquema energético comunitario  con la utilización de las fuentes renovables de energía, utilizando la variante que desde el punto económico y ambiental resulte de más conveniencia.  In this report was considered an electric net connected installation in the island of Cuba. It had the interest of introducing a certain % of energy starting from renewable sources, and a certain potential of wind and photovoltaic energy was possessed. The requirements and energy options were analyzed, and it were carried out simulations of alternative with the HOMER program and it was concluded with the determination of the conditions or potentials of the renewable sources for the recommendation of each energy option, and the results were presented in graphic way and easy understanding. It was offered an analysis of the real possibilities in the environment of a town. It can take advantage in function of diversifying from a sustainable way, with the community energy outline using the renewable sources of energy, and taking the variant of more convenience from the economic and environmental point of view.

  1. Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emerek, Ruth

    2004-01-01

    Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration......Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration...

  2. On option purchase agreements for new generation capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramesh, V.C.

    1996-01-01

    Given the increasing competition in the power generation sector, and the resulting uncertainty surrounding long-term investments in new generation projects, utilities are beginning to hedge their risks using financial instruments called options. The purpose of this paper is to explain, in a tutorial fashion, the issues involved in an option contract for new generation capacity (long-term firm energy). Particular emphasis is placed on the valuation of such options. The concepts are explained with illustrative examples

  3. Biogas/fossil gas options. The future for integration of biogas in the natural gas sector in Denmark and in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biering Jensen, A [Naturgas Midt-Nord, Viborg (Denmark)

    1997-08-01

    Naturgas Midt-Nord is a company with the purpose of distributing and selling natural gas. The company is owned by 73 municipalities in the 4 counties in the northern part of Jutland. In this respect we cover almost 50% of the Danish farming areas. Since the company was established in 1983, almost 775 kilometres or 40 bar high-pressure pipes and 3,500 kilometres of 4 bar low-pressure pipes have been built. From time to time we have discussed the matter of biogas in the company. In relation to the distribution of natural gas, the integration of biogas could either be seen as a threat or a possibility to expand our business. It is still not quite clear for us, what part we should play with regards to biogas integration. (au)

  4. Report on the uncertainty methods study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time

  5. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  6. Compound Option Pricing under Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiandong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the uncertainty of a financial market includes two aspects: risk and vagueness; in this paper, fuzzy sets theory is applied to model the imprecise input parameters (interest rate and volatility. We present the fuzzy price of compound option by fuzzing the interest and volatility in Geske’s compound option pricing formula. For each α, the α-level set of fuzzy prices is obtained according to the fuzzy arithmetics and the definition of fuzzy-valued function. We apply a defuzzification method based on crisp possibilistic mean values of the fuzzy interest rate and fuzzy volatility to obtain the crisp possibilistic mean value of compound option price. Finally, we present a numerical analysis to illustrate the compound option pricing under fuzzy environment.

  7. REDD+ emissions estimation and reporting: dealing with uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelletier, Johanne; Potvin, Catherine; Martin, Davy

    2013-01-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined the technical and financial modalities of policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). Substantial technical challenges hinder precise and accurate estimation of forest-related emissions and removals, as well as the setting and assessment of reference levels. These challenges could limit country participation in REDD+, especially if REDD+ emission reductions were to meet quality standards required to serve as compliance grade offsets for developed countries’ emissions. Using Panama as a case study, we tested the matrix approach proposed by Bucki et al (2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 024005) to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis distinguishing between ‘modelling sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to model-specific parameters and assumptions, and ‘recurring sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to random and systematic errors in emission factors and activity data. The sensitivity analysis estimated differences in the resulting fluxes ranging from 4.2% to 262.2% of the reference emission level. The classification of fallows and the carbon stock increment or carbon accumulation of intact forest lands were the two key parameters showing the largest sensitivity. The highest error propagated using Monte Carlo simulations was caused by modelling sources of uncertainty, which calls for special attention to ensure consistency in REDD+ reporting which is essential for securing environmental integrity. Due to the role of these modelling sources of uncertainty, the adoption of strict rules for estimation and reporting would favour comparability of emission reductions between countries. We believe that a reduction of the bias in emission factors will arise, among other things, from a globally concerted effort to improve allometric equations for tropical forests. Public access to datasets and methodology

  8. REDD+ emissions estimation and reporting: dealing with uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Johanne; Martin, Davy; Potvin, Catherine

    2013-09-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined the technical and financial modalities of policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). Substantial technical challenges hinder precise and accurate estimation of forest-related emissions and removals, as well as the setting and assessment of reference levels. These challenges could limit country participation in REDD+, especially if REDD+ emission reductions were to meet quality standards required to serve as compliance grade offsets for developed countries’ emissions. Using Panama as a case study, we tested the matrix approach proposed by Bucki et al (2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 024005) to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis distinguishing between ‘modelling sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to model-specific parameters and assumptions, and ‘recurring sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to random and systematic errors in emission factors and activity data. The sensitivity analysis estimated differences in the resulting fluxes ranging from 4.2% to 262.2% of the reference emission level. The classification of fallows and the carbon stock increment or carbon accumulation of intact forest lands were the two key parameters showing the largest sensitivity. The highest error propagated using Monte Carlo simulations was caused by modelling sources of uncertainty, which calls for special attention to ensure consistency in REDD+ reporting which is essential for securing environmental integrity. Due to the role of these modelling sources of uncertainty, the adoption of strict rules for estimation and reporting would favour comparability of emission reductions between countries. We believe that a reduction of the bias in emission factors will arise, among other things, from a globally concerted effort to improve allometric equations for tropical forests. Public access to datasets and methodology

  9. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

    2017-04-01

    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  10. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Daly, Don S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hathaway, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lansing, Carina S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McJeon, Haewon C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Peterson, Marty J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rice, Jennie S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  11. Traditional preventive treatment options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Longbottom, C; Ekstrand, K; Zero, D

    2009-01-01

    Preventive treatment options can be divided into primary, secondary and tertiary prevention techniques, which can involve patient- or professionally applied methods. These include: oral hygiene (instruction), pit and fissure sealants ('temporary' or 'permanent'), fluoride applications (patient...... options....

  12. Breast Cancer: Treatment Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Breast Cancer > Breast Cancer: Treatment Options Request Permissions Breast Cancer: Treatment Options Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial ... can be addressed as quickly as possible. Recurrent breast cancer If the cancer does return after treatment for ...

  13. THE REAL OPTIONS OF CAPITAL BUDGET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martins

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional techniques of capital budget, as the deducted cash flow and the net value present, do not incorporate existing flexibilities in an investment project, they tend to distort the value of certain investments, mainly those that are considered in scenes of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, this study intends to demonstrate that the Real Options Theory (TOR is a useful methodology to evaluate and to indicate the best option for project of expansion investment. To reach the considered objective the procedure method was used a case study, having as unit of case the Resort Praia Hotel do Litoral Norte of Salvador. This study was developed of the following form: first it identified the traditional net value present and later it was incorporated the volatileness of each analyzed uncertainty. Second, as the real options are analogous to the financial options, it was necessary to identify elements that composed the terminologies of the financial options with intention to get the value of the real option. For this model of options pricing of Black & Scholes jointly with a computational simulator was used (SLS to get the expanded net value present. As a result of this study it was possible to evidence that using the traditional tool of capital budget Net Value Present (VPL is negative, therefore the project of expansion of the Hotel would be rejected. While for the application of methodology TOR the project presents positive Expanded Present Value which would represent an excellent chance of investment. Key-word: Capital budget, Real options, Analysis of investments.

  14. Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

    2015-04-01

    Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

  15. Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

  16. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  17. Distributed Energy Implementation Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chandralata N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-13

    This presentation covers the options for implementing distributed energy projects. It distinguishes between options available for distributed energy that is government owned versus privately owned, with a focus on the privately owned options including Energy Savings Performance Contract Energy Sales Agreements (ESPC ESAs). The presentation covers the new ESPC ESA Toolkit and other Federal Energy Management Program resources.

  18. [Integrity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Rodríguez, Rafael Ángel

    2014-01-01

    To say that someone possesses integrity is to claim that that person is almost predictable about responses to specific situations, that he or she can prudentially judge and to act correctly. There is a closed interrelationship between integrity and autonomy, and the autonomy rests on the deeper moral claim of all humans to integrity of the person. Integrity has two senses of significance for medical ethic: one sense refers to the integrity of the person in the bodily, psychosocial and intellectual elements; and in the second sense, the integrity is the virtue. Another facet of integrity of the person is la integrity of values we cherish and espouse. The physician must be a person of integrity if the integrity of the patient is to be safeguarded. The autonomy has reduced the violations in the past, but the character and virtues of the physician are the ultimate safeguard of autonomy of patient. A field very important in medicine is the scientific research. It is the character of the investigator that determines the moral quality of research. The problem arises when legitimate self-interests are replaced by selfish, particularly when human subjects are involved. The final safeguard of moral quality of research is the character and conscience of the investigator. Teaching must be relevant in the scientific field, but the most effective way to teach virtue ethics is through the example of the a respected scientist.

  19. Quantifying reactor safety margins: Application of code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology to a large-break, loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyack, B.; Duffey, R.; Wilson, G.; Griffith, P.; Lellouche, G.; Levy, S.; Rohatgi, U.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1989-12-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a revised rule for loss-of-coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (ECCS) analysis of light water reactors to allow the use of best-estimate computer codes in safety analysis as an option. A key feature of this option requires the licensee to quantify the uncertainty of the calculations and include that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with acceptance limits provided in 10 CFR Part 50. To support the revised ECCS rule and illustrate its application, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty evaluation methodology called code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty (CSAU). The CSAU methodology and an example application described in this report demonstrate that uncertainties in complex phenomena can be quantified. The methodology is structured, traceable, and practical, as is needed in the regulatory arena. The methodology is systematic and comprehensive as it addresses and integrates the scenario, experiments, code, and plant to resolve questions concerned with: (a) code capability to scale-up processes from test facility to full-scale nuclear power plants; (b) code applicability to safety studies of a postulated accident scenario in a specified nuclear power plant; and (c) quantifying uncertainties of calculated results. 127 refs., 55 figs., 40 tabs

  20. Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalme, Charles I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with ...

  1. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  2. TANK SPACE OPTIONS REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, W.L.; Ahrendt, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Since this report was originally issued in 2001, several options proposed for increasing double-shell tank (DST) storage space were implemented or are in the process of implementation. Changes to the single-shell tank (SST) waste retrieval schedule, completion of DST space saving options, and the DST space saving options in progress have delayed the projected shortfall of DST storage space from the 2007-2011 to the 2018-2025 timeframe (ORP-11242, River Protection Project System Plan). This report reevaluates options from Rev. 0 and includes evaluations of new options for alleviating projected restrictions on SST waste retrieval beginning in 2018 because of the lack of DST storage space.

  3. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

    2013-05-21

    We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

  4. Uncertainty analysis for secondary energy distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1978-01-01

    In many transport calculations the integral design parameter of interest (response) is determined mainly by secondary particles such as gamma rays from (n,γ) reactions or secondary neutrons from inelastic scattering events or (n,2n) reactions. Standard sensitivity analysis usually allows to calculate the sensitivities to the production cross sections of such secondaries, but an extended formalism is needed to also obtain the sensitivities to the energy distribution of the generated secondary particles. For a 30-group standard cross-section set 84% of all non-zero table positions pertain to the description of secondary energy distributions (SED's) and only 16% to the actual reaction cross sections. Therefore, any sensitivity/uncertainty analysis which does not consider the effects of SED's is incomplete and neglects most of the input data. This paper describes the methods of how sensitivity profiles for SED's are obtained and used to estimate the uncertainty of an integral response due to uncertainties in these SED's. The detailed theory is documented elsewhere and implemented in the LASL sensitivity code SENSIT. SED sensitivity profiles have proven particularly valuable in cross-section uncertainty analyses for fusion reactors. Even when the production cross sections for secondary neutrons were assumed to be without error, the uncertainties in the energy distribution of these secondaries produced appreciable uncertainties in the calculated tritium breeding rate. However, complete error files for SED's are presently nonexistent. Therefore, methods will be described that allow rough error estimates due to estimated SED uncertainties based on integral SED sensitivities

  5. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  6. Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

    2018-04-01

    Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

  7. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  8. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  9. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  10. Remediation options and the significance of water treatment at former uranium production sites in Eastern Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzweiler, R.; Jakubick, A.T.; Kiessig, G.

    2000-01-01

    The WISMUT remediation project in the States of Saxony and Thuringia, Germany, comprises several mine and mill sites including large volumes of production residues. Due to the climate, the intensive land use and the regulatory conditions, the water path is most important in evaluating remediation options. Water treatment is an integral part of mine flooding, mine dump and tailings remediation, and treatment costs represent a major portion of the overall costs of the project. Uncertainties in the estimations of quantities of mine and seepage waters, variations in quality from site to site, and changing conditions in time demand a strategic approach to the selection and optimization of water treatment methods. The paper describes options considered and experience gained including efforts to limit long-term treatment costs by developing and applying passive treatment systems and negotiating acceptable discharge limits. (author)

  11. Unexpected uncertainty, volatility and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Rachel Bland

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The study of uncertainty in decision making is receiving greater attention in the fields of cognitive and computational neuroscience. Several lines of evidence are beginning to elucidate different variants of uncertainty. Particularly, risk, ambiguity and expected and unexpected forms of uncertainty are well articulated in the literature. In this article we review both empirical and theoretical evidence arguing for the potential distinction between three forms of uncertainty; expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty and volatility. Particular attention will be devoted to exploring the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility which has been less appreciated in the literature. This includes evidence from computational modelling, neuromodulation, neuroimaging and electrophysiological studies. We further address the possible differentiation of cognitive control mechanisms used to deal with these forms of uncertainty. Particularly we explore a role for conflict monitoring and the temporal integration of information into working memory. Finally, we explore whether the Dual Modes of Control theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility.

  12. Coupling Adaptation Tipping Points and Engineering Options: New Insights for Resilient Water Infrastructure Replacement Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

    2017-12-01

    This work presents an innovative approach for replacement planning for aging water infrastructure given uncertain future conditions. We draw upon two existing methodologies to develop an integrated long-term replacement planning framework. We first expand the concept of Adaptation Tipping Points to generate long-term planning timelines that incorporate drivers of investment related to both internal structural processes as well as changes in external operating conditions. Then, we use Engineering Options to explore different actions taken at key moments in this timeline. Contrasting to the traditionally more static approach to infrastructure design, designing the next generation of infrastructure so it can be changed incrementally is a promising method to safeguard current investments given future uncertainty. This up-front inclusion of structural options in the system actively facilitates future adaptation, transforming uncertainty management in infrastructure planning from reactive to more proactive. A two-part model underpins this approach. A simulation model generates diverse future conditions, allowing development of timelines of intervention moments in the structure's life. This feeds into an economic model, evaluating the lifetime performance of different replacement strategies, making explicit the value of different designs and their flexibility. A proof of concept study demonstrates this approach for a pumping station. The strategic planning timelines for this structure demonstrate that moments when capital interventions become necessary due to reduced functionality from structural degradation or changed operating conditions are widely spread over the structure's life. The disparate timing of these necessary interventions supports an incremental, adaptive mindset when considering end-of-life and replacement decisions. The analysis then explores different replacement decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the proposed new structure

  13. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-01-01

    The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result of the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

  14. Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heggedal, Ane Marte

    2012-07-01

    This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

  15. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  16. No-lose targets as an option to integrate non-Annex I countries in global emission reduction efforts. A game-theoretical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duscha, Vicki

    2012-07-01

    Substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions of 50% and more below 1990 levels by 2050 are necessary, to limit mean temperature increase below 2 C above pre-industrial levels. While the Kyoto Protocol foresees emission reduction targets for Annex I countries only, current and projected greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the growing economic importance of emerging economies call for an integration of non-Annex I countries in global reduction efforts. No-lose targets set emission reduction targets and define incentives for meeting the target, in contrast to binding reduction targets that use penalties to ensure compliance. One form of incentive is the participation in an international emissions trading market. While a few conceptual and quantitative analyses of no-lose targets can be found in the literature, economic analyses have not been carried out so far. In this thesis, two theoretical frameworks are introduced to analyze the potential of no-lose targets to contribute to global emission reduction efforts. First, a two-player, two-stage model is developed to model a non-Annex I country's participation decision and derive the contribution to global emission reductions. Then a two-player participation game is introduced to analyze the effects that the participation decision of one non-Annex I country has on another non-Annex I country also facing a no-lose target. Two market forms, a perfectly competitive market, and a market with market power on the side of the non-Annex I country are analyzed. In order to complement the highly stylized theoretical frameworks, a quantitative analysis applying marginal abatement cost curves is conducted to estimate the contribution of no-lose targets to reaching the 2 C target. The analyses show that no-lose targets can result in substantial contributions from non-Annex I countries to global emission reductions, in particular if the reduction potential in the non-Annex I countries is large, compared to that of the Annex I

  17. Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, W.; Gao, F.

    2012-01-01

    An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyro processing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC) have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU) for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyro techniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.

  18. Value of an option to purchase electric power. The case of uncertain consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhanot, Karan

    2002-01-01

    Large manufacturers and corporations often purchase options on power to protect themselves against unanticipated price increases. This paper analyzes the impact of uncertainty in power consumption by a corporation on the value of an option to purchase electric power. Because there is no economically viable method to store power, these options are exercised to satisfy immediate consumption needs only. The amount exercised may differ from the maximum amount contracted, which in turn alters the payoffs that accrue to the option contract. We apply a Monte Carlo methodology to show that 'consumption uncertainty' may substantively lower the price of an option contract under different conditions

  19. Hazardous landfill management, control options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corbin, M.H.; Lederman, P.B.

    1982-01-01

    The land disposal of hazardous wastes has been a common practice over the last half century. The industrial and environmental communities, as well as the public, have an immediate challenge to control the contaminants that may be released from waste land disposal facilities. At the same time, land disposal continues to be, in many cases, the only available disposal technique that can be utilized in the next five years. Thus, it is extremely important that environmentally sound landfill management and control techniques be utilized, both for inactive and active sites. There are a number of key steps in developing a sound management and control plan. These include problem definition, personnel safety, characterization, evaluation of control options, cost-effectiveness analysis and development of an integrated control plan. A number of control options, including diversion, regrading, sealing, and leachate treatment are available and more cost effective in most cases than waste removal. These and other options, as well as the methodology to develop an integrated control plan, are discussed, together with examples. (Auth.)

  20. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  1. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  2. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  3. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  4. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  5. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  6. Option value of electricity demand response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)

    2007-02-15

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  7. Option value of electricity demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.

    2007-01-01

    As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

  8. Cross-sectoral assessment of mitigation options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, K.

    1997-01-01

    similarly been assessed in the country study for Zimbabwe, The options include in particular efficiency improvements in industrial plants and in the energy sector, A new methodological issue in the country study for Zimbabwe is the comparable assessment of greenhouse gas reductions options for multiple...... emission sources and gases. The paper reports the result of the integrated assessment of CO2 and CH4 reduction options for energy, agriculture, forestry and waste management for Zimbabwe, This leads up to a final discussion on methodological issues involved in cross-sectoral mitigation assessment. (C) 1997...

  9. The origins of options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaldino, Paul E; Richerson, Peter J

    2012-01-01

    Most research on decision making has focused on how human or animal decision makers choose between two or more options, posed in advance by the researchers. The mechanisms by which options are generated for most decisions, however, are not well understood. Models of sequential search have examined the trade-off between continued exploration and choosing one's current best option, but still cannot explain the processes by which new options are generated. We argue that understanding the origins of options is a crucial but untapped area for decision making research. We explore a number of factors which influence the generation of options, which fall broadly into two categories: psycho-biological and socio-cultural. The former category includes factors such as perceptual biases and associative memory networks. The latter category relies on the incredible human capacity for culture and social learning, which doubtless shape not only our choices but the options available for choice. Our intention is to start a discussion that brings us closer toward understanding the origins of options.

  10. Americal options analyzed differently

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuis, J.W.

    2003-01-01

    In this note we analyze in a discrete-time context and with a finite outcome space American options starting with the idea that every tradable should be a martingale under a certain measure. We believe that in this way American options become more understandable to people with a good working

  11. Uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emission estimates from a managed fen meadow using EC measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Van 't Veen, W.H.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Jonker, H.

    2009-02-01

    The overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements may be as high as 50% due to the temporal and spatial variability in the fluxes. As even a large number of chamber plots still cover typically less than 1% of the total field area, the field-scale integrated emission necessarily remains a matter of speculation. High frequency micrometeorological methods are a good option for obtaining integrated estimates on a hectare scale with a continuous coverage in time. Instrumentation is now becoming available that meets the requirements for CH4 and N2O eddy covariance (EC) measurements. A system consisting of a quantum cascade laser (QCL) spectrometer and a sonic anemometer has recently been proven to be suitable for performing EC measurements. This study analyses the EC flux measurements of CH4 and N2O and its corrections, like calibration, Webb-correction, and corrections for high and low frequency losses, and assesses the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with the precision of the measurement instruments, measurement set-up and the methodology. The uncertainty of one single EC flux measurement, a daily, monthly and 3-monthly average EC flux is estimated. In addition, the cumulative emission of C-CH4 and N-N2O and their uncertainties are determined over several fertilizing events at a dairy farm site in the Netherlands. These fertilizing events are selected from the continuously EC flux measurements from August 2006 to September 2008. The EC flux uncertainties are compared by the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements. It will be shown that EC flux measurements can decrease the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates

  12. Uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emission estimates from a managed fen meadow using EC measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Van ' t Veen, W.H.; Vermeulen, A.T. [ECN Biomass, Coal and Environment, Petten (Netherlands); Jonker, H. [Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

    2009-02-15

    The overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements may be as high as 50% due to the temporal and spatial variability in the fluxes. As even a large number of chamber plots still cover typically less than 1% of the total field area, the field-scale integrated emission necessarily remains a matter of speculation. High frequency micrometeorological methods are a good option for obtaining integrated estimates on a hectare scale with a continuous coverage in time. Instrumentation is now becoming available that meets the requirements for CH4 and N2O eddy covariance (EC) measurements. A system consisting of a quantum cascade laser (QCL) spectrometer and a sonic anemometer has recently been proven to be suitable for performing EC measurements. This study analyses the EC flux measurements of CH4 and N2O and its corrections, like calibration, Webb-correction, and corrections for high and low frequency losses, and assesses the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with the precision of the measurement instruments, measurement set-up and the methodology. The uncertainty of one single EC flux measurement, a daily, monthly and 3-monthly average EC flux is estimated. In addition, the cumulative emission of C-CH4 and N-N2O and their uncertainties are determined over several fertilizing events at a dairy farm site in the Netherlands. These fertilizing events are selected from the continuously EC flux measurements from August 2006 to September 2008. The EC flux uncertainties are compared by the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements. It will be shown that EC flux measurements can decrease the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates.

  13. Uncertainty of Volatility Estimates from Heston Greeks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Pfante

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Volatility is a widely recognized measure of market risk. As volatility is not observed it has to be estimated from market prices, i.e., as the implied volatility from option prices. The volatility index VIX making volatility a tradeable asset in its own right is computed from near- and next-term put and call options on the S&P 500 with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration and non-vanishing bid. In the present paper we quantify the information content of the constituents of the VIX about the volatility of the S&P 500 in terms of the Fisher information matrix. Assuming that observed option prices are centered on the theoretical price provided by Heston's model perturbed by additive Gaussian noise we relate their Fisher information matrix to the Greeks in the Heston model. We find that the prices of options contained in the VIX basket allow for reliable estimates of the volatility of the S&P 500 with negligible uncertainty as long as volatility is large enough. Interestingly, if volatility drops below a critical value of roughly 3%, inferences from option prices become imprecise because Vega, the derivative of a European option w.r.t. volatility, and thereby the Fisher information nearly vanishes.

  14. Traffic Light Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

    This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

  15. Traffic Light Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

    2007-01-01

    This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

  16. Overlapping carbon pricing and renewable support schemes under political uncertainty: Global lessons from an Australian case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahnazari, Mahdi; McHugh, Adam; Maybee, Bryan; Whale, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Uncertainty over overlapping energy and climate policies affects investment choices. •An integrated real options and portfolio optimisation model is used in a case study. •Interacting carbon pricing and renewable supports can create private and social hedge. •Political uncertainty may justify overlapping carbon pricing and renewable supports. -- Abstract: The translation of a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policy objective to the required investment in low emissions technologies may be hindered by political contest over the policy instruments employed to achieve it. Political contest may also result in enactment of overlapping policy instruments which, from a ‘policy purist’ perspective, may not appear well calibrated to a shared GHG emissions reduction objective. This paper reports insights gained from an integrated real options and portfolio optimisation model of electricity generation investment behaviour under political uncertainty over the futures of interacting carbon pricing and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) instruments. We compare modelling results and actual outcomes in Australia, where an emission reduction target has had bipartisan support but the means to achieve it has not, to test the assertion that overlapping policy instruments must always increase the social costs of GHG abatement. Results suggest that overlapping a politically contested carbon pricing policy with an RPS may result in a lower risk, renewable energy (RE) investment environment, as the overlap allows investors to hedge their portfolio against political uncertainty through RE additions. Consequently, GHG abatement objectives may be achieved at lower cost than would be the case without the policy interaction. The policies overlap can provide a ‘safety valve’ or ‘hedge’ to both private investors and policymakers when deep uncertainties over the future of energy and climate policies influence investment strategies.

  17. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  18. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  19. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  20. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  1. Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arasteh, Abdollah

    2016-09-01

    Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

  2. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  3. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  4. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  5. Cyanobacterial Treatment Options: Permanganate and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will begin with a brief overview of drinking water treatment options for cyanobacteria and their toxins. The treatment discussion will focus on the impacts of permanganate addition to suspensions of toxin-producing Microcystis aeruginosa, followed by powdered activated carbon (PAC) addition. Results will be presented that show changes in toxin concentrations, chlorophyll-a concentrations and cell membrane integrity. The EPA Small Systems Webinar Presentations allow the dissemination of the latest Agency guidance and research to a large geographically dispersed audience while minimizing taxpayer expense

  6. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  7. Polish Toxic Currency Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Gontarski

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Toxic currency options are defined on the basis of the opposition to the nature (essence of an option contract, which is justified in terms of norms founded on the general law clause of characteristics (nature of a relation (which represents an independent premise for imposing restrictions on the freedom of contracts. So-understood toxic currency options are unlawful. Indeed they contravene iuris cogentis regulations. These include for instance option contracts, which are concluded with a bank, if the bank has not informed about option risk before concluding the contract; or the barrier options, which focus only on the protection of bank’s interests. Therefore, such options may appear to be invalid. Therefore, performing contracts for toxic currency options may be qualified as a criminal mismanagement. For the sake of security, the manager should then take into consideration filing a claim for stating invalidity (which can be made in a court verdict. At the same time, if the supervisory board member in a commercial company, who can also be a subject to mismanagement offences, commits an omission involving lack of reaction (for example, if he/she fails to notify of the suspected offence committed by the management board members acting to the company’s detriment when the management board makes the company conclude option contracts which are charged with absolute invalidity the supervisory board member so acting may be considered to act to the company’s detriment. In the most recent Polish jurisprudence and judicature the standard of a “good host” is treated to be the last resort for determining whether the manager’s powers resulting from criminal regulations were performed. The manager of the exporter should not, as a rule, issue any options. Issuing options always means assuming an obligation. In the case of currency put options it is an absolute obligation to purchase a given amount in euro at exchange rate set in advance. On the

  8. Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornley, Patricia; Upham, Paul; Huang, Ye; Rezvani, Sina; Brammer, John; Rogers, John

    2009-01-01

    Power generation from biomass is a sustainable energy technology which can contribute to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but with greater potential for environmental, economic and social impacts than most other renewable energy technologies. It is important therefore in assessing bioenergy systems to take account of not only technical, but also environmental, economic and social parameters on a common basis. This work addresses the challenge of analysing, quantifying and comparing these factors for bioenergy power generation systems. A life-cycle approach is used to analyse the technical, environmental, economic and social impacts of entire bioelectricity systems, with a number of life-cycle indicators as outputs to facilitate cross-comparison. The results show that similar greenhouse gas savings are achieved with the wide variety of technologies and scales studied, but land-use efficiency of greenhouse gas savings and specific airborne emissions varied substantially. Also, while specific investment costs and electricity costs vary substantially from one system to another the number of jobs created per unit of electricity delivered remains roughly constant. Recorded views of stakeholders illustrate that diverging priorities exist for different stakeholder groups and this will influence appropriate choice of bioenergy systems for different applications

  9. Dielectric material options for integrated capacitors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruhl, G.; Lehnert, W.; Lukosius, M.; Wenger, C.; Baristiran Kaynak, C.; Blomberg, T.; Haukka, S.; Baumann, P.K.; Besling, W.F.A.; Roest, A.L.; Riou, B.; Lhostis, S.; Halimaou, A.; Roozeboom, F.; Langereis, E.; Kessels, W.M.M.; Zauner, A.; Rushworth, S.A.

    2014-01-01

    Future MIM capacitor generations will require significantly increased specific capacitances by utilization of high-k dielectric materials. In order to achieve high capacitance per chip area, these dielectrics have to be deposited in three-dimensional capacitor structures by ALD or AVD (atomic vapor

  10. Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...

  11. Expensing options solves nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlman, William A

    2002-12-01

    The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

  12. Treatment of measurement uncertainties at the power burst facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, L.C.

    1980-01-01

    The treatment of measurement uncertainty at the Power Burst Facility provides a means of improving data integrity as well as meeting standard practice reporting requirements. This is accomplished by performing the uncertainty analysis in two parts, test independent uncertainty analysis and test dependent uncertainty analysis. The test independent uncertainty analysis is performed on instrumentation used repeatedly from one test to the next, and does not have to be repeated for each test except for improved or new types of instruments. A test dependent uncertainty analysis is performed on each test based on the test independent uncertainties modified as required by test specifications, experiment fixture design, and historical performance of instruments on similar tests. The methodology for performing uncertainty analysis based on the National Bureau of Standards method is reviewed with examples applied to nuclear instrumentation

  13. Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenning, B.D. [Texas Utilities Services, Inc., Dallas, TX (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

  14. Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenning, B. D.

    1995-01-01

    The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

  15. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph

    2016-01-01

    Supply chain flexibility is widely recognized as an approach to manage uncertainty. Uncertainty in the supply chain may arise from a number of sources such as demand and supply interruptions and lead time variability. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options...... incorporated in sourcing, manufacturing and logistics functions can be used for the analysis of flexibility adjustment in an existing supply chain. This paper develops such a tactical supply chain planning model incorporating a realistic range of flexibility options. A novel solution method is designed...

  16. Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenning, B.D.

    1994-01-01

    The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated

  17. Managing the uncertainties of the streamflow data produced by the French national hydrological services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puechberty, Rachel; Bechon, Pierre-Marie; Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    records to produce continuous discharge time series. The management of rating curves is also done using BAREME. The BaRatin method (Le Coz et al., 2014) was developed as a Bayesian approach of rating curve development and uncertainty analysis. Since BaRatin accounts for the individual uncertainties of gauging data used to build the rating curve, it was coupled with BAREME. The BaRatin method is still undergoing development and research, in particular to address non univocal or time-varying stage-discharge relations, due to hysteresis, variable backwater, rating shifts, etc. A new interface including new options is under development. The next steps are now to propagate the uncertainties of water level records, through uncertain rating curves, up to discharge time series and derived variables (e.g. annual mean flow) and statistics (e.g. flood quantiles). Bayesian tools are already available for both tasks but further validation and development is necessary for their integration in the operational data workflow of the French NHS. References Le Coz, J., Camenen, B., Peyrard, X., Dramais, G., 2012. Uncertainty in open-channel discharges measured with the velocity-area method. Flow Measurement and Instrumentation 26, 18-29. Le Coz, J., Renard, B., Bonnifait, L., Branger, F., Le Boursicaud, R., 2014. Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: a Bayesian approach, Journal of Hydrology, 509, 573-587.

  18. Early Option Exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Jensen, Mads Vestergaard

    A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

  19. Early Option Exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Vestergaard; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    A classic result by Merton (1973) is that, except just before expiration or dividend payments, one should never exercise a call option and never convert a convertible bond. We show theoretically that this result is overturned when investors face frictions. Early option exercise can be optimal when...... it reduces short-sale costs, transaction costs, or funding costs. We provide consistent empirical evidence, documenting billions of dollars of early exercise for options and convertible bonds using unique data on actual exercise decisions and frictions. Our model can explain as much as 98% of early exercises...

  20. An Adaptation Dilemma Caused by Impacts-Modeling Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J. W.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. H.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P. M.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M. R.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.

    2013-12-01

    Ensuring future well-being for a growing population under either strong climate change or an aggressive mitigation strategy requires a subtle balance of potentially conflicting response measures. In the case of competing goals, uncertainty in impact estimates plays a central role when high confidence in achieving a primary objective (such as food security) directly implies an increased probability of uncertainty induced failure with regard to a competing target (such as climate protection). We use cross sectoral consistent multi-impact model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org) to illustrate this uncertainty dilemma: RCP projections from 7 global crop, 11 hydrological, and 7 biomes models are combined to analyze irrigation and land use changes as possible responses to climate change and increasing crop demand due to population growth and economic development. We show that - while a no-regrets option with regard to climate protection - additional irrigation alone is not expected to balance the demand increase by 2050. In contrast, a strong expansion of cultivated land closes the projected production-demand gap in some crop models. However, it comes at the expense of a loss of natural carbon sinks of order 50%. Given the large uncertainty of state of the art crop model projections even these strong land use changes would not bring us ';on the safe side' with respect to food supply. In a world where increasing carbon emissions continue to shrink the overall solution space, we demonstrate that current impacts-modeling uncertainty is a luxury we cannot afford. ISI-MIP is intended to provide cross sectoral consistent impact projections for model intercomparison and improvement as well as cross-sectoral integration. The results presented here were generated within the first Fast-Track phase of the project covering global impact projections. The second phase will also include regional projections. It is the aim

  1. Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Huan Ran

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

  2. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  3. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  4. Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options

    OpenAIRE

    Noureddine Krichene

    2005-01-01

    One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed...

  5. Nuclear energy - an option for Croatian sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikulicic, V.; Skanata, D.; Simic, Z.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainties of growth in Croatian future energy, particularly electricity demand, together with growing environmental considerations and protection constraints, are such that Croatia needs to have flexibility to respond by having the option of expanding the nuclear sector. The paper deals with nuclear energy as an option for croatian sustainable economic development. The conclusion is that there is a necessity for extended use of nuclear energy in Croatia because most certainly nuclear energy can provide energy necessary to sustain progress. (author)

  6. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

    2015-10-01

    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

  7. 'Integration'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2011-01-01

    , while the countries have adopted disparate policies and ideologies, differences in the actual treatment and attitudes towards immigrants and refugees in everyday life are less clear, due to parallel integration programmes based on strong similarities in the welfare systems and in cultural notions...... of equality in the three societies. Finally, it shows that family relations play a central role in immigrants’ and refugees’ establishment of a new life in the receiving societies, even though the welfare society takes on many of the social and economic functions of the family....

  8. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    , and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  9. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics

  10. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    ]. There are also bootstrapping and cross-validation approaches.Sometimes analyses are conducted using surrogate models [12]. The availability of so many options can be confusing. Categorizing methods based on fundamental questions assists in communicating the essential results of uncertainty analyses to stakeholders. Such questions can focus on model adequacy (e.g., How well does the model reproduce observed system characteristics and dynamics?) and sensitivity analysis (e.g., What parameters can be estimated with available data? What observations are important to parameters and predictions? What parameters are important to predictions?), as well as on the uncertainty quantification (e.g., How accurate and precise are the predictions?). The methods can also be classified by the number of model runs required: few (10s to 1000s) or many (10,000s to 1,000,000s). Of the methods listed above, the most computationally frugal are generally those based on local derivatives; MCMC methods tend to be among the most computationally demanding. Surrogate models (emulators)do not necessarily produce computational frugality because many runs of the full model are generally needed to create a meaningful surrogate model. With this categorization, we can, in general, address all the fundamental questions mentioned above using either computationally frugal or demanding methods. Model development and analysis can thus be conducted consistently using either computation-ally frugal or demanding methods; alternatively, different fundamental questions can be addressed using methods that require different levels of effort. Based on this perspective, we pose the question: Can computationally frugal methods be useful companions to computationally demanding meth-ods? The reliability of computationally frugal methods generally depends on the model being reasonably linear, which usually means smooth nonlin-earities and the assumption of Gaussian errors; both tend to be more valid with more linear

  11. Coping with uncertainties in integrative spatial planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijst, M.J.; Burrough, P.A.; Schot, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    As a consequence of economic, technological, and sociocultural megatrends,Western countries are increasingly being confronted with large spatial problems. Households and businesses need more space for residential, recreational, and economic activities. An increasing demand for mobility of persons

  12. Integral organizational renewal : between structure and uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijnatten, van F.M.; Fitzgerald, L.A.; Chase, T.

    1997-01-01

    As the dominant scientific paradigm is transmuted, Socio-Technical Systems Design (STSD) also finds itself submerged in a major process of transition and redefinition. The theory of open systems is bound to be replaced by what is called the ‘new science’ (i.e. complexity! chaos theory). In order to

  13. Thermometers: Understand the Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the options Thermometers come in a variety of styles. Understand the different types of thermometers and how ... MA. Fever in infants and children: Pathophysiology and management. http://www.uptodate.com/home. Accessed July 23, ...

  14. Systematic uncertainties on Monte Carlo simulation of lead based ADS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embid, M.; Fernandez, R.; Garcia-Sanz, J.M.; Gonzalez, E.

    1999-01-01

    Computer simulations of the neutronic behaviour of ADS systems foreseen for actinide and fission product transmutation are affected by many sources of systematic uncertainties, both from the nuclear data and by the methodology selected when applying the codes. Several actual ADS Monte Carlo simulations are presented, comparing different options both for the data and for the methodology, evaluating the relevance of the different uncertainties. (author)

  15. Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Funke; Yu-Fu Chen; Nicole Glanemann

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguous assessments of climate damages. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policy makers become more reluctant to postp...

  16. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  17. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  18. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  19. Options for human intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauser, M.; Williams, R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper addresses options for dealing with human intrusion in terms of performance requirements and repository siting and design requirements. Options are presented, along with the advantages and disadvantages of certain approaches. At the conclusion, a conceptual approach is offered emphasizing both the minimization of subjective judgements concerning future human activity, and specification of repository requirements to minimize the likelihood of human intrusion and any resulting, harmful effects should intrusion occur

  20. Evaluation of uncertainties in the calibration of radiation personal monitor with Cesium-137 source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirapalheta, Tatiane; Alexandre, Anderson; Costa, Camila; Batista, Gilmar; Paulino, Thyago; Albuquerque, Marcos; Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

    2016-01-01

    This work shows the entire calibration process of an individual monitor, focusing on radiation protection, in health, correlating these measures associated uncertainties. The results show an expanded uncertainty of 5.81% for dose rate measurements and an expanded uncertainty of 5.61% for integrated dose measurements, these uncertainties have been evaluated the type A and type B with its components. (author)

  1. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  2. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  3. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  4. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  5. Nuclear Option in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, K. I.

    2002-01-01

    With sixteen(16) operating nuclear units in Korea, the share of nuclear power generation reached 41% of the total electric power generation as of December 2000. A prediction is that it would further increase to 44.5% by year 2015 according to the national long term power development plan. Four units are currently under construction with 6 more units in order. With little domestic energy resource and increasing energy demand to support national economic growth, Korea has chosen nuclear power as one of the major energy sources to ensure stable power supply and to promote energy self-sufficiency. It has been recognized that nuclear power in Korea is not a selective option but rather a necessity. The Korean nuclear power development started with construction of a 600 MWe size reactor that was designed and constructed by foreign vendors. As the national grid capacity became larger, the size of nuclear units increased to 1000 MWe class. In the mean time, the need for nuclear technology self-reliance grew not only in operation and maintenance but also in construction, manufacturing and design. For this, a nuclear technology self-reliance program has been embarked with the support of the Government and utility, and the 1000 MWe class KSNP(Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant) has been developed. The KSNPs are currently being designed, manufactured, constructed and operated by relevant Korean entities themselves. To fit into a larger capacity national grid and also to improve nuclear economic competitiveness, the 1400 MWe class KNGR(Korean Next Generation Reactor) design has been developed uprating the 1000 MWe KSNP design. Its construction project is currently under contract negotiation, and is planned to be finished by 2010. In the mean time, to be ready for future electric power market deregulation, the 600 MWe class small KSNP design is being developed downsizing the KSNP. A modular small size reactor, SMART(System Integrated Modular Advanced Reactor) is also being

  6. Treatment Options for Wilms Tumor

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... come back) after it has been treated. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  7. Treatment Options for Myelodysplastic Syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... special light. Certain factors affect prognosis and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options ... age and general health of the patient. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  8. Treatment Option Overview (Prostate Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  9. Treatment Option Overview (Myelodysplastic Syndromes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... special light. Certain factors affect prognosis and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options ... age and general health of the patient. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  10. Treatment Option Overview (Esophageal Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  11. Treatment Option Overview (Childhood Rhabdomyosarcoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  12. Treatment Option Overview (Penile Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  13. Treatment Option Overview (Vulvar Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  14. Treatment Option Overview (Pancreatic Cancer)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  15. Treatment Option Overview (Adrenocortical Carcinoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... affect the prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  16. Treatment Options for Childhood Rhabdomyosarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  17. Treatment Options for Kaposi Sarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other parts of the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  18. Treatment Options for Childhood Craniopharyngioma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... the brain where it was first found. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...

  19. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

  20. Justification for recommended uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

  1. Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

    While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...

  2. Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

    2011-01-01

    The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

  3. Real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black-Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R and D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: 'Baseline' corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. 'Accelerated' strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R and D and the advantages of accelerated development path. - Research highlights: → Real options analysis of fusion R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme. → ENPV of fusion RDDD programme is calculated using stochastic probabilistic simulation. → Fusion RDDD programme exhibits substantial positive real options value: Euro 245 billion. → Fuzzy compound real option valuation method provides more robust results.

  4. Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2015-01-01

    Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

  5. Uncertainty in project phases: A framework for organisational change management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie; Balangalibun, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    in the early stage of the change project but was delayed until later phases. Furthermore, the sources of uncertainty were found to be predominantly within the organisation that initiated the change project and connected to the project scope. Based on these findings, propositions for future research are defined......Uncertainty is an integral challenge when managing organisational change projects (OCPs). Current literature highlights the importance of uncertainty; however, falls short of giving insights into the nature of uncertainty and suggestions for managing it. Specifically, no insights exist on how...... uncertainty develops over the different phases of OCPs. This paper presents case-based evidence on different sources of uncertainty in OCPs and how these develop over the different project phases. The results showed some surprising findings as the majority of the uncertainty did not manifest itself...

  6. How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

    Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

  7. Confidence building on euro convergence : Evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992–1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  8. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  9. R&D as an option on market introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.; Pennings, H.P.G.

    1998-01-01

    Discounted cash flow methods for making R&D investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in R&D. Since market and technology uncertainties change expectations about the viability of many new products, the value of projects is frequently adjusted during the R&D stages. Capturing the

  10. Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

  11. 20 CFR 416.2035 - Optional supplementation: Additional State options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional supplementation: Additional State options. 416.2035 Section 416.2035 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... § 416.2035 Optional supplementation: Additional State options. (a) Residency requirement. A State or...

  12. Novel preventive treatment options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Longbottom, C; Ekstrand, K; Zero, D

    2009-01-01

    A number of novel preventive treatment options which, as with traditional methods, can be differentiated into 3 categories of prevention (primary, secondary and tertiary), have been and are being currently investigated. Those reviewed are either commercially available or appear relatively close...... of these techniques show considerable promise and dentists should be aware of these developments and follow their progress, the evidence for each of these novel preventive treatment options is currently insufficient to make widespread recommendations. Changes in dental practice should be explored to see how oral...

  13. Tank Space Options Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BOYLES, V.C.

    2001-01-01

    A risk-based priority for the retrieval of Hanford Site waste from the 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) has been adopted as a result of changes to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO) (Ecology et al. 1997) negotiated in 2000. Retrieval of the first three tanks in the retrieval sequence fills available capacity in the double-shell tanks (DSTs) by 2007. As a result, the HFFACO change established a milestone (M-45-12-TO1) requiring the determination of options that could increase waste storage capacity for single-shell tank waste retrieval. The information will be considered in future negotiations. This document fulfills the milestone requirement. This study presents options that were reviewed for the purpose of increasing waste storage capacity. Eight options are identified that have the potential for increasing capacity from 5 to 10 million gallons, thus allowing uninterrupted single-shell tank retrieval until the planned Waste Treatment Plant begins processing substantial volumes of waste from the double-shell tanks in 2009. The cost of implementing these options is estimated to range from less than $1 per gallon to more than $14 per gallon. Construction of new double-shell tanks is estimated to cost about $63 per gallon. Providing 5 to 10 million gallons of available double-shell tank space could enable early retrieval of 5 to 9 high-risk single-shell tanks beyond those identified for retrieval by 2007. These tanks are A-101, AX-101, AX-103, BY-102, C-107, S-105, S-106, S-108, and S-109 (Garfield et al. 2000). This represents a potential to retrieve approximately 14 million total curies, including 3,200 curies of long-lived mobile radionuclides. The results of the study reflect qualitative analyses conducted to identify promising options. The estimated costs are rough-order-of magnitude and, therefore, subject to change. Implementing some of the options would represent a departure from the current baseline and may adversely impact the

  14. Alternative energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, K.F.

    1983-01-01

    It is accepted that coal will continue to play the major role in the supply of energy to the country for the remainder of the century. In this paper, however, emphasis has been directed to those options which could supplement coal in an economic and technically sound manner. The general conclusion is that certain forms of solar energy hold the most promise and it is in this direction that research, development and implementation programmes should be directed. Tidal energy, fusion energy, geothermal energy, hydrogen energy and fuel cells are also discussed as alternative energy options

  15. Thermal test options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koski, J.A.; Keltner, N.R.; Sobolik, K.B.

    1993-02-01

    Shipping containers for radioactive materials must be qualified to meet a thermal accident environment specified in regulations, such at Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 71. Aimed primarily at the shipping container design, this report discusses the thermal testing options available for meeting the regulatory requirements, and states the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The principal options considered are testing with radiant heat, furnaces, and open pool fires. The report also identifies some of the facilities available and current contacts. Finally, the report makes some recommendations on the appropriate use of these different testing methods

  16. Lighting Options for Homes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.S.

    1991-04-01

    This report covers many aspects of various lighting options for homes. Types of light sources described include natural light, artificial light, incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, and high intensity discharge lamps. A light source selection guide gives the physical characteristics of these, design considerations, and common applications. Color, strategies for efficient lighting, and types of lighting are discussed. There is one section giving tips for various situations in specific rooms. Rooms and types of fixtures are shown on a matrix with watts saved by using the recommended type lighting for that room and room location. A major emphasis of this report is saving energy by utilizing the most suitable, recommended lighting option. (BN)

  17. Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

  18. Uncertainty in BMP evaluation and optimization for watershed management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Sudheer, K.; Her, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Use of computer simulation models have increased substantially to make watershed management decisions and to develop strategies for water quality improvements. These models are often used to evaluate potential benefits of various best management practices (BMPs) for reducing losses of pollutants from sources areas into receiving waterbodies. Similarly, use of simulation models in optimizing selection and placement of best management practices under single (maximization of crop production or minimization of pollutant transport) and multiple objective functions has increased recently. One of the limitations of the currently available assessment and optimization approaches is that the BMP strategies are considered deterministic. Uncertainties in input data (e.g. precipitation, streamflow, sediment, nutrient and pesticide losses measured, land use) and model parameters may result in considerable uncertainty in watershed response under various BMP options. We have developed and evaluated options to include uncertainty in BMP evaluation and optimization for watershed management. We have also applied these methods to evaluate uncertainty in ecosystem services from mixed land use watersheds. In this presentation, we will discuss methods to to quantify uncertainties in BMP assessment and optimization solutions due to uncertainties in model inputs and parameters. We have used a watershed model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT) to simulate the hydrology and water quality in mixed land use watershed located in Midwest USA. The SWAT model was also used to represent various BMPs in the watershed needed to improve water quality. SWAT model parameters, land use change parameters, and climate change parameters were considered uncertain. It was observed that model parameters, land use and climate changes resulted in considerable uncertainties in BMP performance in reducing P, N, and sediment loads. In addition, climate change scenarios also affected uncertainties in SWAT

  19. Indirect reciprocity with optional interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghang, Whan; Nowak, Martin A

    2015-01-21

    Indirect reciprocity is a mechanism for the evolution of cooperation that is relevant for prosocial behavior among humans. Indirect reciprocity means that my behavior towards you also depends on what you have done to others. Indirect reciprocity is associated with the evolution of social intelligence and human language. Most approaches to indirect reciprocity assume obligatory interactions, but here we explore optional interactions. In any one round a game between two players is offered. A cooperator accepts a game unless the reputation of the other player indicates a defector. For a game to take place, both players must accept. In a game between a cooperator and a defector, the reputation of the defector is revealed to all players with probability Q. After a sufficiently large number of rounds the identity of all defectors is known and cooperators are no longer exploited. The crucial condition for evolution of cooperation can be written as hQB>1, where h is the average number of rounds per person and B=(b/c)-1 specifies the benefit-to-cost ratio. We analyze both stochastic and deterministic evolutionary game dynamics. We study two extensions that deal with uncertainty: hesitation and malicious gossip. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Dealing with exploration uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capen, E.

    1992-01-01

    Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side

  1. Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rommel N. Carvalho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

  2. Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

  3. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  4. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  5. CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.

    1989-01-01

    Best Estimate computer codes have been accepted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an optional tool for performing safety analysis related to the licensing and regulation of current nuclear reactors producing commercial electrical power, providing their uncertainty is quantified. In support of this policy change, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty quantification methodology called CSAU. The primary use of the CSAU methodology is to quantify safety margins for existing designs; however, the methodology can also serve an equally important role in advanced reactor research for plants not yet built. This paper describes the CSAU methodology, at the generic process level, and provides the general principles whereby it may be applied to evaluations of advanced reactor designs

  6. Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of the resolution of uncertainty found in models with heterogeneity...... of firm productivity. This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands...... to forecast unknown demands in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit...

  7. Mixed waste management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

    1992-01-01

    Currently, limited storage and treatment capacity exists for commercial mixed waste streams. No commercial mixed waste disposal is available, and it has been estimated that if and when commercial mixed waste disposal becomes available, the costs will be high. If high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and management options. Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatory and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition) no migration petition) and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly. Another option for mixed waste management that is being explored is the feasibility of Department of Energy (DOE) accepting commercial mixed waste for treatment, storage, and disposal. A study has been completed that analyzes DOE treatment capacity in comparison with commercial mixed waste streams. (author)

  8. New Options, Old Concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, John

    1996-01-01

    Will greater school choice result in more responsive, higher quality schools and happier parents? Or will proliferating options further sort students and families by race, social class, and special interest? Increasingly, education is viewed as a private good. If parents become autonomous, self-interested consumers, erosion of common purposes and…

  9. Heterogeneity and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram

    2000-01-01

    An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.

  10. Option Pricing and Momentum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    If managers are reluctant to fully adjust dividends to changes in earnings, stock returns and changes in the dividend yield will tend to be negatively correlated. When this is the case, stock returns will exhibit positive autocorrelation, or mo- mentum. This paper studies the pricing of options in

  11. Idaho's Energy Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert M. Neilson

    2006-03-01

    This report, developed by the Idaho National Laboratory, is provided as an introduction to and an update of the status of technologies for the generation and use of energy. Its purpose is to provide information useful for identifying and evaluating Idaho’s energy options, and for developing and implementing Idaho’s energy direction and policies.

  12. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  13. Application of experimental design on the uncertainty analysis and history matching integration process; Aplicacao de planejamento estatistico no processo de integracao de analise de incertezas com ajuste de historicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maschio, Celio; Risso, Fernanda V.A.; Schiozer, Denis J. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The purpose of this work is to present a methodology of uncertainty mitigation through observed data obtained during petroleum field production. One step of the methodology consists of the uncertainty quantification through the derivative tree technique. Another step is the probability redistribution of the uncertain levels. The uncertainty quantification process through derivative tree can be unfeasible for cases with high number of attributes. In this context, for the uncertainty quantification, it is proposed the use of proxies, which are response surfaces obtained through statistical design, in order to reduce the number of simulations. Additionally, the weights of each attribute level considered in the probability redistribution are optimized. The methodology was applied in two reservoirs: a synthetic field with eight attributes and a modified real field with six critical attributes. The results have shown a good agreement among the uncertainty curves obtained through the response surface and those obtained through the simulations and significant reduction of the number of simulations by using proxies. The effect of the uncertainty reduction on the production prediction is also analyzed. (author)

  14. ESFR core optimization and uncertainty studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rineiski, A.; Vezzoni, B.; Zhang, D.; Marchetti, M.; Gabrielli, F.; Maschek, W.; Chen, X.-N.; Buiron, L.; Krepel, J.; Sun, K.; Mikityuk, K.; Polidoro, F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J.; DaCruz, D.F.; Tsige-Tamirat, H.; Sunderland, R.

    2015-01-01

    In the European Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) project supported by EURATOM in 2008-2012, a concept for a large 3600 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor design was investigated. In particular, reference core designs with oxide and carbide fuel were optimized to improve their safety parameters. Uncertainties in these parameters were evaluated for the oxide option. Core modifications were performed first to reduce the sodium void reactivity effect. Introduction of a large sodium plenum with an absorber layer above the core and a lower axial fertile blanket improve the total sodium void effect appreciably, bringing it close to zero for a core with fresh fuel, in line with results obtained worldwide, while not influencing substantially other core physics parameters. Therefore an optimized configuration, CONF2, with a sodium plenum and a lower blanket was established first and used as a basis for further studies in view of deterioration of safety parameters during reactor operation. Further options to study were an inner fertile blanket, introduction of moderator pins, a smaller core height, special designs for pins, such as 'empty' pins, and subassemblies. These special designs were proposed to facilitate melted fuel relocation in order to avoid core re-criticality under severe accident conditions. In the paper further CONF2 modifications are compared in terms of safety and fuel balance. They may bring further improvements in safety, but their accurate assessment requires additional studies, including transient analyses. Uncertainty studies were performed by employing a so-called Total Monte-Carlo method, for which a large number of nuclear data files is produced for single isotopes and then used in Monte-Carlo calculations. The uncertainties for the criticality, sodium void and Doppler effects, effective delayed neutron fraction due to uncertainties in basic nuclear data were assessed for an ESFR core. They prove applicability of the available nuclear data for ESFR

  15. Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies - Implication for UK decarbonisation targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kannan, R.

    2009-01-01

    The UK government's economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a 'what-if' framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented. (author)

  16. Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

  17. Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Morena; Nicol, Sam; Wells, Jessie A; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J M; Runge, Michael C; Possingham, Hugh P; Madden, Eve McDonald

    2014-06-01

    Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. The action uncertainty principle and quantum gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensky, Michael B.

    1992-02-01

    Results of the path-integral approach to the quantum theory of continuous measurements have been formulated in a preceding paper in the form of an inequality of the type of the uncertainty principle. The new inequality was called the action uncertainty principle, AUP. It was shown that the AUP allows one to find in a simple what outputs of the continuous measurements will occur with high probability. Here a more simple form of the AUP will be formulated, δ S≳ħ. When applied to quantum gravity, it leads in a very simple way to the Rosenfeld inequality for measurability of the average curvature.

  19. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  20. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling