Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

1996-01-01

The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

2014-01-01

To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

2010-01-01

A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures

The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

2004-01-01

Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

2007-01-01

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

The role of risk assessment and safety analysis in integrated safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niall, R.; Hunt, M.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-01-01

To ensure that the design and operation of both nuclear and non- nuclear hazardous facilities is acceptable, and meets all societal safety expectations, a rigorous deterministic and probabilistic assessment is necessary. An approach is introduced, founded on the concept of an ''Integrated Safety Assessment.'' It merges the commonly performed safety and risk analyses and uses them in concert to provide decision makers with the necessary depth of understanding to achieve ''adequacy.'' 3 refs., 1 fig

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

2013-09-15

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2015-01-01

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-06-15

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

2008-01-01

In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm

An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison between integrated risk assessment and classical health/environmental assessment: Emerging beneficial properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekizawa, Jun; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2005-01-01

Both humans and wildlife are exposed to various types of halogenated organic compounds such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), typically old chemicals, and tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPM) and brominated flame retardants, some new chemicals, simultaneously. Classical risk assessment has evaluated health and ecological risks independently by experts from different disciplines. Taking into considerations the recent concerns about endocrine disrupting chemicals and the progress of research in related areas, we integrated and assessed data on exposure and potential effects in humans and wildlife. Comparisons were made for organ concentrations, body burdens of several organochlorine compounds (OCs), metabolic capacities between humans and various wildlife. When we integrate the knowledge on effects and exposure in humans and in wildlife, new insights were suggested about similarities and/or differences in potential effects among various human populations living on different foods and having different body burdens. Combining existing information with emerging knowledge of mechanisms of actions on endocrine disrupting chemicals after exposure to above chemicals during early developmental stages will further elucidate potential risks from exposure to those chemicals

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Hun Lee

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Risk assessment concept in the new approach directives and its integration in the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đapić Mirko

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In the nineties years of the previous century, the European Union achieved, through introducing the New and Global Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a significant improvement in the approach to conformity assessment of products, by integrating the requirements for technical products safety into the process of its designing. This was achieved by preventive analyzing and quantifying of risk levels in the design process with the objective of determining the scope of the needed safety systems. On the other hand, we have witnessed a rapid development and implementation of holistic approaches to risks management in enterprises, unified in the modern business practice by the name of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. Going along that line, the paper presents, through the basis of the EU New and Global Approach, the concept of risk assessment in the New Approach directives (Machinery, Lifts, ATEX, etc and provides the concept of its integration into the holistic approach of risks management in enterprises, such as ERM.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-07-15

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

2018-01-01

Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokan, S.

2009-01-01

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

2015-01-01

The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study).

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stol, D.; Badenbroek, I.; Hollander, M.; Nielen, M.; Schellevis, F.; Wit, N. de

2014-01-01

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study): a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial protocol. Rationale: The increasing prevalence of cardiometabolic disease (CMD), including cardiovascular

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Integrate life-cycle assessment and risk analysis results, not methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin D; Wender, Ben A; Seager, Thomas P; Kennedy, Alan J; Keisler, Jeffrey M

2017-08-04

Two analytic perspectives on environmental assessment dominate environmental policy and decision-making: risk analysis (RA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA). RA focuses on management of a toxicological hazard in a specific exposure scenario, while LCA seeks a holistic estimation of impacts of thousands of substances across multiple media, including non-toxicological and non-chemically deleterious effects. While recommendations to integrate the two approaches have remained a consistent feature of environmental scholarship for at least 15 years, the current perception is that progress is slow largely because of practical obstacles, such as a lack of data, rather than insurmountable theoretical difficulties. Nonetheless, the emergence of nanotechnology presents a serious challenge to both perspectives. Because the pace of nanomaterial innovation far outstrips acquisition of environmentally relevant data, it is now clear that a further integration of RA and LCA based on dataset completion will remain futile. In fact, the two approaches are suited for different purposes and answer different questions. A more pragmatic approach to providing better guidance to decision-makers is to apply the two methods in parallel, integrating only after obtaining separate results.

An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

1999-01-01

Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

2015-01-01

Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

Guidelines for integrated risk assessment and management in large industrial areas. Inter-Agency programme on the assessment and management of health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

The IAEA, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the framework of the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) decided in 1986 to join forces in order to promote the use of integrated area wide approaches to risk management. An Inter-Agency Programme, which brings together expertise in health the environment, industry and energy, all vital for effective risk management, was established. The Inter-Agency Programme on the assessment and Management of Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems aims at promoting and facilitating the implementation of integrated risk assessment and management for large industrial areas. This initiative includes the compilation of procedures and methods for environmental and public health risk assessment, the transfer of knowledge and experience amongst countries in the application of these procedures and the implementation of an integrated approach to risk management. The purpose of the Inter-Agency Programme is to develop a broad approach to the identification, prioritization and minimization of industrial hazards in a given geographical area. The UN organizations sponsoring this programme have been involved for several years in activities aimed at assessment and management of environmental and health risks, prevention of major accidents and emergency preparedness. These Guidelines have been developed on the basis of experience from these activities to assist in the planning and conduct of regional risk management projects. They provide a reference framework for the undertaking of integrated health and environmental risk assessment for large industrial areas and for the formulation of appropriate risk management strategies

Guidelines for integrated risk assessment and management in large industrial areas. Inter-Agency programme on the assessment and management of health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The IAEA, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the framework of the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) decided in 1986 to join forces in order to promote the use of integrated area wide approaches to risk management. An Inter-Agency Programme, which brings together expertise in health the environment, industry and energy, all vital for effective risk management, was established. The Inter-Agency Programme on the assessment and Management of Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems aims at promoting and facilitating the implementation of integrated risk assessment and management for large industrial areas. This initiative includes the compilation of procedures and methods for environmental and public health risk assessment, the transfer of knowledge and experience amongst countries in the application of these procedures and the implementation of an integrated approach to risk management. The purpose of the Inter-Agency Programme is to develop a broad approach to the identification, prioritization and minimization of industrial hazards in a given geographical area. The UN organizations sponsoring this programme have been involved for several years in activities aimed at assessment and management of environmental and health risks, prevention of major accidents and emergency preparedness. These Guidelines have been developed on the basis of experience from these activities to assist in the planning and conduct of regional risk management projects. They provide a reference framework for the undertaking of integrated health and environmental risk assessment for large industrial areas and for the formulation of appropriate risk management strategies. Refs, figs, tabs.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-11-13

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

Social Learning through Participatory Integrated Catchment Risk Assessment in the Solomon Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suzanne Hoverman

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In developed countries a social learning approach has been shown to support Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM by fostering stakeholders' understanding of system complexity, recognition of mutual dependence, appreciation of others' perspectives, and development of the capacity to work together and to create mutual trust. Much less is known about social learning's potential in less developed small island states, particularly postconflict island states, where integration must navigate prescriptive management, limited resources, widely differing world views, a history of adversarial relationships, and unsuccessful attempts at government-community collaboration. This paper analyzes the transformative aspects of a social learning experience that occurred during research facilitating participatory integrated catchment management in the Pacific. The study elicited community and expert knowledge to create systems understanding to generate and analyze complex scenarios for integrated catchment risk assessment in the Kongulai catchment, Solomon Islands. Separate sequenced and then combined discussions led to facilitated exploration of others' subjective assessment of catchment risks and management options. Issues of transparency, trust, accountability, and mutual responsibility were explored in carefully created discursive spaces, assisted by the immediacy of personal contact and the absence of complex bureaucratic structures. Despite historical difficulties, through the use of bridging individuals, participants were generally able to transcend the constraints of their individual knowledge cultures, expand awareness and appreciation of the complexity of human-environment systems for IWRM, and envisage new opportunities for productively working together in integrated catchment management.

A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

2017-01-01

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun; Lee, Sang hoon

2016-01-01

As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed

Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang hoon [Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed.

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeit, Peter; Kaptoge, S; Welsh, P.

2016-01-01

samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes......BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present...... by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored...

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

Science.gov (United States)

Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

2013-01-01

Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

2013-01-01

Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

2017-05-01

Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic integrated risk assessment of human exposure risk to environmental bisphenol A pollution sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Keng-Yen; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-10-01

Environmental bisphenol A (BPA) exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects such as developmental and reproductive issues. However, establishing a clear association between BPA and the likelihood of human health is complex yet fundamentally uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential exposure risks from environmental BPA among Chinese population based on five human health outcomes, namely immune response, uterotrophic assay, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and behavior change. We addressed these health concerns by using a stochastic integrated risk assessment approach. The BPA dose-dependent likelihood of effects was reconstructed by a series of Hill models based on animal models or epidemiological data. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that allows estimation of urinary BPA concentration from external exposures. Here we showed that the daily average exposure concentrations of BPA and urinary BPA estimates were consistent with the published data. We found that BPA exposures were less likely to pose significant risks for infants (0-1 year) and adults (male and female >20 years) with human long-term BPA susceptibility in relation to multiple exposure pathways, and for informing the public of the negligible magnitude of environmental BPA pollution impacts on human health.

An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

2016-01-01

Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1984-10-01

A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Preliminary risk assessment of the Integral Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarroll, Kellen R.; Lee, John C.; Manera, Annalisa; Memmott, Matthew J.; Ferroni, Paolo

2017-01-01

The Integral, Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) concept seeks to significantly increase nuclear power plant safety. The project implements a safety-by-design philosophy, eliminating several initiating events and providing novel, passive safety systems at the conceptual phase. Pursuit of unparalleled safety employs an integrated development process linking design with deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses. Unique aspects of the I 2 S-LWR concept and design process present challenges to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), particularly regarding overall flexibility, auditability and resolution of results. Useful approaches to initiating events and conditional failures are presented. To exemplify the risk-informed design process using PRA, a trade-off study of two safety system configurations is presented. Although further optimization is required, preliminary results indicate that the I 2 S-LWR can achieve a core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events less than 1.01 × 10 −8 /ry, including reactor vessel ruptures. Containment bypass frequency due to primary heat exchanger rupture is found to be comparable to non-vessel rupture CDF.

A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

2013-11-01

The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

Science.gov (United States)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2013-04-01

Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is

Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

1991-01-01

An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents

Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Islam, M.A.

2015-01-01

Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam

This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of

Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

OpenAIRE

Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

2017-01-01

Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

2015-01-01

The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

Development of Integrated Assessment Technology of Risk and Performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Jun Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Kang, Hyun Gook

2010-04-01

The main idea and contents are summarized as below 1) Development of new risk/performance assessment system innovating old labor-intensive risk assessment structure - New consolidated risk assessment technology from various hazard(flood, fire, seismic in NPP) - BOP model development for performance monitoring - Consolidated risk/performance management system for consistency and efficiency of NPP 2) Resolution technology for pending issues in PSA - Base technology for PSA of digital I and C system - Base technology for seismic PSA reflecting domestic seismic characteristics and aging effect - Uncertainty reduction technology for level 2 PSA and best estimation of containment failure frequency 3) Next generation risk/performance assessment technology - Human-induced error reduction technology for efficient operation of a NPP

Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

Science.gov (United States)

Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

Science.gov (United States)

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

Integrating risks at contaminated sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.; Habegger, L.; Nieves, L.; Schreiber, Z.; Travis, C.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for a number of large sites across the country that were radioactively and chemically contaminated by past nuclear research, development, and production activities. Multiple risk assessments are being conducted for these sites to evaluate current conditions and determine what measures are needed to protect human health and the environment from today through the long term. Integrating the risks associated with multiple contaminants in different environmental media across extensive areas, over time periods that extend beyond 1,000 years, and for a number of different impact categories--from human health and ecological to social and economic--represents a considerable challenge. A central element of these integrated analyses is the ability to reflect key interrelationships among environmental resources and human communities that may be adversely affected by the actions or inactions being considered for a given site. Complicating the already difficult task of integrating many kinds of risk is the importance of reflecting the diverse values and preferences brought to bear by the multiple parties interested in the risk analysis process and outcome. An initial conceptual framework has been developed to provide an organized structure to this risk integration, with the aim of supporting effective environmental management decisions. This paper highlights key issues associated with comprehensive risk integration and offers suggestions developed from preliminary work at a complex DOE site

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Kubal

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

Development of integrated parameter database for risk assessment at the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamauchi, Yoshikazu

2011-01-01

A study to develop a parameter database for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the application of risk information on plant operation and maintenance activity is important because the transparency, consistency, and traceability of parameters are needed to explanation adequacy of the evaluation to third parties. Application of risk information for the plant operation and maintenance activity, equipment reliability data, human error rate, and 5 factors of 'five-factor formula' for estimation of the amount of radioactive material discharge (source term) are key inputs. As a part of the infrastructure development for the risk information application, we developed the integrated parameter database, 'R-POD' (Rokkasho reprocessing Plant Omnibus parameter Database) on the trial basis for the PSA of the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant. This database consists primarily of the following 3 parts, 1) an equipment reliability database, 2) a five-factor formula database, and 3) a human reliability database. The underpinning for explaining the validity of the risk assessment can be improved by developing this database. Furthermore, this database is an important tool for the application of risk information, because it provides updated data by incorporating the accumulated operation experiences of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant. (author)

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, Carl-Magnus

2008-01-01

The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide

Risk assessment of Giardia from a full scale MBR sewage treatment plant caused by membrane integrity failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Zhimin; An, Wei; Xiao, Shumin; Yuan, Hongying; Zhang, Dongqing; Yang, Min

2015-04-01

Membrane bioreactors (MBR) are highly efficient at intercepting particles and microbes and have become an important technology for wastewater reclamation. However, many pathogens can accumulate in activated sludge due to the long residence time usually adopted in MBR, and thus may pose health risks when membrane integrity problems occur. This study presents data from a survey on the occurrence of water-borne Giardia pathogens in reclaimed water from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant with MBR experiencing membrane integrity failure, and assessed the associated risk for green space irrigation. Due to membrane integrity failure, the MBR effluent turbidity varied between 0.23 and 1.90 NTU over a period of eight months. Though this turbidity level still met reclaimed water quality standards (≤5 NTU), Giardia were detected at concentrations of 0.3 to 95 cysts/10 L, with a close correlation between effluent turbidity and Giardia concentration. All β-giardin gene sequences of Giardia in the WWTP influents were genotyped as Assemblages A and B, both of which are known to infect humans. An exponential dose-response model was applied to assess the risk of infection by Giardia. The risk in the MBR effluent with chlorination was 9.83×10(-3), higher than the acceptable annual risk of 1.0×10(-4). This study suggested that membrane integrity is very important for keeping a low pathogen level, and multiple barriers are needed to ensure the biological safety of MBR effluent. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

2007-01-01

Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

1990-01-01

In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

Risk Assessment of Structural Integrity of Transportation Casks after Extended Storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibarra, Luis; Medina, Ricardo; Yang, Haori

2018-03-23

This study assessed the risk of loss of structural integrity of transportation casks and fuel cladding after extended storage. Although it is known that fuel rods discharged from NPPs have a small percentage of rod cladding defects, the behavior of fuel cladding and the structural elements of assemblies during transportation after long-term storage is not well understood. If the fuel degrades during extended storage, it could be susceptible to damage from vibration and impact loads during transport operations, releasing fission-product gases into the canister or the cask interior (NWTRB 2010). Degradation of cladding may occur due to mechanisms associated with hydrogen embrittlement, delayed hydride cracking, low temperature creep, and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) that may affect fuel cladding and canister components after extended storage of hundreds of years. Over extended periods at low temperatures, these mechanisms affect the ductility, strength, and fracture toughness of the fuel cladding, which becomes brittle. For transportation purposes, the fuel may be transferred from storage to shipping casks, or dual-purpose casks may be used for storage and transportation. Currently, most of the transportation casks will be the former case. A risk assessment evaluation is conducted based on results from experimental tests and simulations with advanced numerical models. A novel contribution of this study is the evaluation of the combined effect of component aging and vibration/impact loads in transportation scenarios. The expected levels of deterioration will be obtained from previous and current studies on the effect of aging on fuel and cask components. The emphasis of the study is placed on the structural integrity of fuel cladding and canisters.

White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

2015-07-15

The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

Systematic Review: Concept and Tool Development with Application in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Systematic Review: Concept and tool development with application to the National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Processes. There is growing interest within the environmental health community to incorporate systematic review m...

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J.; Eckelman, Matthew; Isaacs, Jacqueline A.; Pourzahedi, Leila

2015-01-01

The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation

Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J., E-mail: c.bosso@neu.edu [Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs (United States); Eckelman, Matthew [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States); Isaacs, Jacqueline A. [Northeastern University, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering (United States); Pourzahedi, Leila [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States)

2015-08-15

The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation.

Integrated environmental risk assessment for petroleum-contaminated sites - a North American case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z.; Huang, G.H.; Chakma, A.

1998-01-01

In this study, an integrated risk assessment approach is proposed for evaluating environmental risks derived from petroleum-contaminated sites. The proposed approach is composed of (i) a hydrocarbon spill screening model (HSSM) which is used for simulating immiscible flow of released hydrocarbons in vadose zone, formation of lens in capillary fringe, dissolution of pollutants at water table, and transport of the pollutants to receptors, and (ii) a fuzzy relation analysis (FRA) model which is developed for comprehensively evaluating risks caused by a number of pollutants with different impact characteristics, based on the HSSM results. This hybrid HSSM-FRA approach was applied to a case study for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada, where soil and groundwater was contaminated by industrial wastes containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEXs). The results suggest that the HSSM-FRA can provide insight into the potential risk to the receptor of concern downward the aquifer and can serve as a basis for further remediation-related decision analysis. (author)

Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...

Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

An approach to grouping species for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hampton, N.L.; VanHorn, R.L.; Morris, R.; Brewer, R.

1994-01-01

The ecological risk assessment (ERA) paradigm acknowledges all levels of ecological organization as having potential for defining assessment and measurement endpoints. However, assessment goals and endpoints are generally concentrated at individual species and population levels. As part of a sitewide, screening-level ERA process at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), a ''functional group'' approach was developed to incorporate assessment at a higher level of ecological organization into the risk analysis process. Functional groups demonstrating biological similarity and similar potential for contaminant exposure were developed using taxonomic, trophic and habitat parameters. As defined, all species are potential surrogates for the other members of the same functional group. Measurement endpoint data for several species may be integrated to address the risk to the group as a whole. The functional group concept was applied throughout the problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization phases of the assessment process. This approach allows the ERA to be focused on risk to the integrity of individual functional groups, which can subsequently be related to guild and community integrity

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

Science.gov (United States)

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LOBER, R.W.

2002-01-01

Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to

Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

2015-01-01

Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hinkel, J.

2008-01-01

Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollnagel, E.

2013-01-01

This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

Implementing a framework for integrating toxicokinetics into human health risk assessment for agrochemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Terry, Claire; Hays, Sean; McCoy, Alene T; McFadden, Lisa G; Aggarwal, Manoj; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Juberg, Daland R

2016-03-01

A strategic and comprehensive program in which toxicokinetic (TK) measurements are made for all agrochemicals undergoing toxicity testing (both new compounds and compounds already registered for use) is described. This approach provides the data to more accurately assess the toxicokinetics of agrochemicals and their metabolites in laboratory animals and humans. Having this knowledge provides the ability to conduct more insightful toxicity studies, refine and interpret exposure assessments and reduce uncertainty in risk assessments. By developing a better understanding of TK across species, including humans via in vitro metabolism studies, any differences across species in TK can be identified early and the most relevant species can be selected for toxicity tests. It also provides the ability to identify any non-linearities in TK as a function of dose, which in turn can be used to identify a kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD) and avoid dosing inappropriately outside of the kinetic linear range. Measuring TK in key life stages also helps to identify changes in ADME parameters from in utero to adults. A robust TK database can also be used to set internal concentration based "Reference Concentrations" and Biomonitoring Equivalents (BE), and support selection of Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF). All of these factors support the reduction of uncertainty throughout the entire risk assessment process. This paper outlines how a TK research strategy can be integrated into new agrochemical toxicity testing programs, together with a proposed Framework for future use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

TWRS safety and technical integration risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fordham, R.A.

1996-01-01

The objectives of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Safety and Technical Integration (STI) programmatic risk management program are to assess, analyze, and handle risks associated with TWRS STI responsibilities and to communicate information about the actions being taken and the results to enable decision making. The objective of this TWRS STI Risk Management Plan is to communicate a consistent approach to risk management that will be used by the organization

Ethical and social aspects of integral risk assessment in reference to nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarz, D.

1991-01-01

As a rule, the risks connected with the use of nuclear energy are assessed as isolated factors. Sterotypically the economic benefits and residual risks are weighed against one another and assessed differently. Within the framework of an integral understanding of the problem, the significance of nuclear energy should be considered to be of prime priority when it comes to the serious problems which humanity is confronted with, i.e.: - ecological stability, - climatic stability, - keeping peace, - prevention of large-scale epidemics, - conservation of our resources for the generations to come, - making existence fit for human beings. The author comes to the conclusion that the risks which would result from dispensing with nuclear energy world-wide are a millionfold greater than are the risks which would result from extending the use of nuclear energy world-wide, not only as regards the loss of human lives, but also as regards the amount of land which might become uninhabitable long-term. The author advocates employing ethical arguments which are based on ethical goals and are rational, economical and promise to show the best way of fulfilling mutual ehtical goals satisfactorily in an objective way. The author sees problems as regards the distortion of truth and its misuse by cynics, opportunists, etc. Social aspects must be subjected to ethical scrutiny as well. On the whole it is important to overcome deficits in the communication between technically and scientifically oriented people and those who view it as their task to reflect upon the meaning behind the issue at hand (clergymen, journalists, politicians, etc.). (orig./HSCH) [de

Integrating mechanistic and polymorphism data to characterize human genetic susceptibility for environmental chemical risk assessment in the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortensen, Holly M.; Euling, Susan Y.

2013-01-01

Response to environmental chemicals can vary widely among individuals and between population groups. In human health risk assessment, data on susceptibility can be utilized by deriving risk levels based on a study of a susceptible population and/or an uncertainty factor may be applied to account for the lack of information about susceptibility. Defining genetic susceptibility in response to environmental chemicals across human populations is an area of interest in the NAS' new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessment. Data from high-throughput/high content (HT/HC), including -omics (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics) technologies, have been integral to the identification and characterization of drug target and disease loci, and have been successfully utilized to inform the mechanism of action for numerous environmental chemicals. Large-scale population genotyping studies may help to characterize levels of variability across human populations at identified target loci implicated in response to environmental chemicals. By combining mechanistic data for a given environmental chemical with next generation sequencing data that provides human population variation information, one can begin to characterize differential susceptibility due to genetic variability to environmental chemicals within and across genetically heterogeneous human populations. The integration of such data sources will be informative to human health risk assessment

Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

1980-01-01

A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices

Ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of endocrine active substances.

Science.gov (United States)

Leopold, Annegaaike; Roberts, Mike; Matthiessen, Peter

2017-03-01

This collection of papers provides state-of-the-art science on a complex topic that has been challenging for scientists and regulators for a long time. The papers emanated from the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Pellston Workshop ® Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA). Forty-eight international experts met in early February 2016 to discuss whether the environmental risks posed by endocrine-disrupting substances (EDS) can be reliably assessed. The primary conclusion of the workshop was that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk assessment of EDS is scientifically sound and reliable. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:264-266. © 2016 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2016 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yang, Xiaomei; Zee, van der Sjoerd E.A.T.M.; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G.; Ritsema, Coen J.; Geissen, Violette

2016-01-01

Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide

Assessment of fracture risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

2009-01-01

Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

Natural-technological risk assessment and management

Science.gov (United States)

Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

2016-04-01

EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

2008-07-01

A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

An Integrated Simulation, Inference and Optimization Approach for Groundwater Remediation with Two-stage Health-Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aili Yang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, an integrated simulation, inference and optimization approach with two-stage health risk assessment (i.e., ISIO-THRA is developed for supporting groundwater remediation for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Both environmental standards and health risk are considered as the constraints in the ISIO-THRA model. The health risk includes two parts: (1 the health risk during the remediation process and (2 the health risk in the natural attenuation period after remediation. In the ISIO-THRA framework, the relationship between contaminant concentrations and time is expressed through first-order decay models. The results demonstrate that: (1 stricter environmental standards and health risk would require larger pumping rates for the same remediation duration; (2 higher health risk may happen in the period of the remediation process; (3 for the same environmental standard and acceptable health-risk level, the remediation techniques that take the shortest time would be chosen. ISIO-THRA can help to systematically analyze interaction among contaminant transport, remediation duration, and environmental and health concerns, and further provide useful supportive information for decision makers.

Integration of fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP for risk assessment in mining industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shikha Verma

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Mining industry has always been known for its unsafe working environment. This industry is one of the most hazard prone industries. To maintain safety in workplace timely assessment of risk associated with different operations performed to extract ore from the ore body has become necessity. To serve the said purpose, present work demonstrates a robust hybrid risk assessment approach for mining industry.Design/Methodology: Accident data from 1995 to 2012 is reviewed to identify hazards contributed to negative outcomes. The FRA approach is implemented to evaluate the risk levels associated with identified hazard factors. Thereafter AHP pairwise comparison matrix is developed to obtain priority weights for the hazard factors. Final priority of hazards based on severity of level of risk associated with them is obtained considering the outcome of FRA approach in terms of risk score for the hazards, combined with the priority weights obtained from AHP technique.Findings: Defuzzified FAHP weight of hazard factors, this weight gives priority sequence of hazards to be considered for development of plan of mitigation.Originality/Value: Risk assessment is a requirement of the Occupational Health and Safety Act 2000 (Section 7& 8. The data required to assess the risk is uncertain, and in such case fuzzy approach is well suited to process the data and get the crisp output. The output of fuzzy approach is made robust with its integration to AHP. In this way FAHP can be used as robust technique for risk assessment in this industry and this technique develops an efficient safety management system for the achievement of goal to develop the workplace with zero accident, which many other countries have already achieved.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

2012-10-01

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

2013-04-01

Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Systamatic approach to integration of a human reliability analysis into a NPP probabalistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fragola, J.R.

1984-01-01

This chapter describes the human reliability analysis tasks which were employed in the evaluation of the overall probability of an internal flood sequence and its consequences in terms of disabling vulnerable risk significant equipment. Topics considered include the problem familiarization process, the identification and classification of key human interactions, a human interaction review of potential initiators, a maintenance and operations review, human interaction identification, quantification model selection, the definition of operator-induced sequences, the quantification of specific human interactions, skill- and rule-based interactions, knowledge-based interactions, and the incorporation of human interaction-related events into the event tree structure. It is concluded that an integrated approach to the analysis of human interaction within the context of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is feasible

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der H.; Braak, ter C.J.F.

2015-01-01

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We

Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht

2011-01-01

We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

Integrated assessment briefs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-04-01

Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-01-01

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

2016-01-01

The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Anne Kirstine; Nielsen, Elsa

2008-01-01

A cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz in combination has been carried out using an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model. In the model, variability in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals were combined...

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

The development and application of an integrated radiological risk assessment procedure using time-dependent probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laurens, J.M.; Thompson, B.G.J.; Sumerling, T.J.

1990-01-01

During the past decade, the UKDoE has funded the development of an integrated assessment procedure centred around probabilistic risk analysis (p.r.a.) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to account for the effects of parameter value uncertainty, including those associated with temporal changes in the environment over a postclosure period of about one million years. The influence of these changes can now be incorporated explicitly into the p.r.a. simulator VANDAL (Variability ANalysis of Disposal ALternatives) briefly described here. Although a full statistically converged time-dependent p.r.a. will not be demonstrated until the current Dry Run 3 trial is complete, illustrative examples are given showing the ability of VANDAL to represent spatially complex groundwater and repository systems evolving under the influence of climatic change. 18 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verbeke Sven

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

2013-06-01

Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerst, Michael D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Borsuk, Mark E.

2010-01-01

The potential for climate catastrophes, represented by 'fat-tailed' distributions on consequences, has attracted much attention recently. To date, however, most integrated assessment models have either been largely deterministic or deterministic with ex-post sensitivity analysis. The conclusions of such analyses are likely to differ from those employing models that accurately characterize society's joint preferences concerning time and risk, especially when distributions are fat-tailed. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted from Nordhaus's DICE model, we show that failing to accurately account for risk can lead to substantial underestimation of the net benefits of greenhouse gas abatement. A robust finding of our analysis is that a lenient 'policy ramp' emissions reduction strategy is preferable over a more aggressive strategy-such as that advocated by the Stern Review-only if the model does not account for uncertainty about the climate system, the carbon cycle and economic damages, and specifies a consumption discount rate that is counterfactually higher than the historical global weighted average cost of capital of 4.0%. In the debate over uncertainty and time discounting, our results imply that what matters most in climate change assessment is the inclusion and particular specification of uncertainty rather than the precise choice of discount rate.

New method for assessing risks of email

Science.gov (United States)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

2015-01-01

We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

Integrated Assessment of Pharmacological and Nutritional Cardiovascular Risk Management : Blood Pressure Control in the DIAbetes and LifEstyle Cohort Twente (DIALECT)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gant, Christina M.; Binnenmars, S. Heleen; van den Berg, Else; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Navis, Gerjan; Laverman, Gozewijn D.

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular risk management is an integral part of treatment in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), and requires pharmacological as well as nutritional management. We hypothesize that a systematic assessment of both pharmacological and nutritional management can identify targets for the improvement

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

Science.gov (United States)

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Fayaz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Huang

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Integrated drought risk assessment of multi-hazard-affected bodies based on copulas in the Taoerhe Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Rui; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Alu, Si; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si; Dong, Zhenhua

2018-02-01

Along with global warming, drought disasters are occurring more frequently and are seriously affecting normal life and food security in China. Drought risk assessments are necessary to provide support for local governments. This study aimed to establish an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies. First, drought characteristics, including duration and severity, were classified using the 1953-2010 precipitation anomaly in the Taoerhe Basin based on run theory, and their marginal distributions were identified by exponential and Gamma distributions, respectively. Then, drought duration and severity were related to construct a joint probability distribution based on the copula function. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate maize yield and historical data to calculate the loss rates of agriculture, industry, and animal husbandry in the study area. Next, we constructed vulnerability curves. Finally, the spatial distributions of drought risk for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods were expressed using inverse distance weighting. Our results indicate that the spatial distributions of the three return periods are consistent. The highest drought risk is in Ulanhot, and the duration and severity there were both highest. This means that higher drought risk corresponds to longer drought duration and larger drought severity, thus providing useful information for drought and water resource management. For 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, the drought risk values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53, 0.45 to 0.59, and 0.50 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, when the return period increases, the drought risk increases.

Integral risk assessment. Technical, ethical and social aspects. Ganzheitliche Risikobetrachtungen. Technische, ethische und soziale Aspekte

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chakraborty, S; Yadigaroglu, G [eds.

1991-01-01

The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.).

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

2007-01-01

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A.J.; Braak, ter Cajo J.F.; Meent, van de Dik; Voet, van der Hilko

2016-01-01

There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To

Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, R.; Meesters, J.A.J.; Ter Braak, C.J.; Meent, D. van de; van der Voet, H.

2016-01-01

There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response:Application to Manizales, Colombia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gabriel A.Bernal; Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Daniela Zuloaga; Julián Tristancho; Diana González; Omar-Dar(i)o Cardona

2017-01-01

The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment,developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales,Colombia,are presented in this article.This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models.A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic,landslide,and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards.Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered.The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants,which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur.The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating an automatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Pásztor

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

2009-01-01

Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonkinson, J.A.

1994-01-01

The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

2012-01-01

Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...

Use of an integrated human health/ecological risk assessment to develop a long-term groundwater/site management plan for a sour gas facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swanson, S.M.; Shaw, R.D.; McClymont, G.; Nadeau, S.

1995-01-01

An integrated human health and ecological risk assessment was used to quantify the level of risk associated with the off-site movement of contaminants via groundwater and soils at a medium-sized gas processing facility in southern Alberta. The study incorporated three key aspects: (1) integration; (2) consultation; and, (3) pro-active remedial actions. Integration was complete, beginning with the Problem Formulation stage and progressing through Risk Characterization and Risk Management. This integration was reflected in a multidisciplinary team of hydrogeologists, biologists and human health specialists. Several lessons emerged from the integrated approach: (1) spending 2/3 of the time and resources on Problem Formulation prevented later problems; (2) the different perspectives provided by the various specialists helped reveal the relative importance of pathways and ecological receptors (3) clear, consistent screening procedures for contaminants of concern and receptors were very effective with stakeholders; (4) exposure scenarios that incorporated common-sense situations (although still conservative) contributed to the credibility of the risk analysis; and, (5) an innovative combination of toxicity testing and chemical analysis helped delineate the boundaries of the potentially contaminated area for both human and ecological receptors in a cost effective manner. Consultation included directly affected parties, regulatory personnel and community members. The consultation extended through the project, with key ''buy-in'' points during Problem Formulation and Risk Characterization/Management. Pro-active remedial action included the removal of contaminant sources in the 1980's, a pump-and-treat system and extensive monitoring. These actions showed commitment and set the stage for credible risk-based mitigation and long-term monitoring

Risk assessment and management logistics chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Vikulov

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabre J. Coleman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

1994-12-01

The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

2016-12-01

There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-01-01

On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban–rural gradient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

2013-01-01

We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban–rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI RDS was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI RDS . These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban–rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Highlights: ► Spatial pattern of metal risk level associated with road-deposited sediment (RDS) along urban–rural gradients varied. ► Risk level of metals changed significantly when grain size was considered. ► A new index integrating RDS characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed. ► Results from the new index were improved relative to those of traditional assessment methods. -- A new index integrating road-deposited sediment characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed to assess metal risk along the urban–rural gradient

An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-07-18

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

2016-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

Risk assessment for improved treatment of health considerations in EIA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demidova, Olga; Cherp, Aleg

2005-01-01

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Risk Assessment (RA) processes are rarely used to complement each other despite potential benefits of such integration. This paper proposes a model for procedural and methodological integration of EIA and RA based on reported best practice approaches. The proposed model stipulates 'embedding' RA into EIA and is organized in accordance with the generic stages of the EIA process. The model forms the basis for the proposed Evaluation Package which can be used as a benchmarking tool for evaluating the effectiveness of integration of RA within particular EIAs. The current paper uses the package for evaluating seven Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) of waste incineration facilities in the UK produced between 1990 and 2000. Though RA was found to be an element of these EIAs, its prominence varied considerably from case to case. Systematic application of RA in accordance with the best practice was not observed. Particular omissions were demonstrated in assessing health impacts not directly associated with air emissions, identifying the receptors of health impacts (affected population), interpreting health impacts as health risks, dealing with uncertainties, and risk communications

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

Risk assessment and societal choices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Otway, H J

1975-02-15

Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

Risk assessment and societal choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otway, H.J.

1975-01-01

Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

Drug interactions evaluation: An integrated part of risk assessment of therapeutics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S.; Zhao, Ping; Huang, Shiew-Mei

2010-01-01

Pharmacokinetic drug interactions can lead to serious adverse events or decreased drug efficacy. The evaluation of a new molecular entity's (NME's) drug-drug interaction potential is an integral part of risk assessment during drug development and regulatory review. Alteration of activities of enzymes or transporters involved in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, or excretion of a new molecular entity by concomitant drugs may alter drug exposure, which can impact response (safety or efficacy). The recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft drug interaction guidance ( (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm072101.pdf)) highlights the methodologies and criteria that may be used to guide drug interaction evaluation by industry and regulatory agencies and to construct informative labeling for health practitioner and patients. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration established a 'Drug Development and Drug Interactions' website to provide up-to-date information regarding evaluation of drug interactions ( (http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DevelopmentResources/DrugInteractionsLabeling/ucm080499.htm)). This review summarizes key elements in the FDA drug interaction guidance and new scientific developments that can guide the evaluation of drug-drug interactions during the drug development process.

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

W. A. Owca

2007-01-01

This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP)

Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés, E-mail: andres@uhu.es

2016-01-15

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation.

Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Domínguez-Gómez, J. Andrés

2016-01-01

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation

Risk assessment to an integrated planning model for UST programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, K.W.

1993-01-01

The US Postal Service maintains the largest civilian fleet in the United States totaling approximately 180,000 vehicles. To support the fleets daily energy requirements, the Postal Service also operates one of the largest networks of underground storage tanks nearly 7,500 nationwide. A program to apply risk assessment to planning, budget development and other management actions was implemented during September, 1989. Working closely with a consultant, the postal service developed regulatory and environmental risk criteria and weighting factors for a ranking model. The primary objective was to identify relative risks for each underground tank at individual facilities. Relative risks at each facility were determined central to prioritizing scheduled improvements to the tank network. The survey was conducted on 302 underground tanks in the Northeast Region of the US. An environmental and regulatory risk score was computed for each UST. By ranking the tanks according to their risk score, tanks were classified into management action categories including, but the limited to, underground tank testing, retrofit, repair, replacement and closure

A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

1998-01-01

This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

2008-06-01

The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks

Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Garcin

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

2015-11-30

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webster, Mort David [MIT

2015-03-10

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

2013-09-17

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological and biogeochemical fundamentals of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashkin, V.; Evstafjeva, E.

1995-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment (RA) for complex influence of different factors in heavy polluted regions is possible to carry out only on a basis of determination of various links of biogeochemical trophical chains and analysis of the whole biogeochemical structure of the region under study. As an integrative assessment, the human adaptability should be chosen because the majority of trophical chains are closed by man. The given integrative criteria includes biogeochemical, ecophysiological and ecotoxicological assessment of risk factors. Consequently, ecological-biogeochemical regionalization, ecophysiological and ecotoxicological monitoring of human population health are the important approaches to RA. These criteria should be conjugated with LCA of various industrial and agricultural products. At the ultimate degree, the given approaches are needed for areas where traditional pollutants (heavy metals, POPS, pesticides, fertilizers) are enforced sharply by radioactive pollution. Due to the complex influence of pollutants, it is impossible to use individual guidelines. For RA of these complex pollutants, the methods of human adaptability assessment to a polluted environment have to be carried out. These methods include biogeochemical, ecotoxicological and ecophysiological analysis of risk factors as well as quantitative uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, the modern statistical methods such as correlative graphs etc., have to be used for quantitative assessment of human adaptability to complex influence of pollutants. The results obtained in the Chernobyl region have shown the acceptability of suggested methods

Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nesterenko Oksana O.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen

2017-01-01

, the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria POPESCU

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1992-01-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

1994-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

Science.gov (United States)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Mazzorana

2009-02-01

Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

Some perspectives for environmental risk assessment of urban stormwater management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Baun, Anders; Ledin, Anna

2002-01-01

Introduction of new technologies for disposing stormwater locally, e.g. via infiltration into the ground, implies that the 'traditional' list of key-substances is not exhaustive and consequently, consultants and authorities have difficulties deciding whether to approve new technologies for stormw...... and groundwater, in an integral and transparent manner. This paper reviews some concepts used within risk assessment of chemical substances and seeks to plot a course for further developments related to risk assessments of stormwater contaminants....... for stormwater disposal. The risk for contamination of surface waters also needs to be assessed, even though this contamination is silently accepted by society. A proper risk assessment needs to consider contamination of all environmental compartments within the urban environment, i.e. surface water, soil...

A generalized Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for urban drainage RTC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

2012-01-01

An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expe......An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii...... to reduce Combined Sewer Overflow loads and to optimize the flow discharged to the wastewater treatment plant. Also, the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improve the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to a wider usage of global RTC...

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

Risk management & organizational uncertainty implications for the assessment of high consequence organizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, C.T.

1995-02-23

Post hoc analyses have demonstrated clearly that macro-system, organizational processes have played important roles in such major catastrophes as Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Exxon Valdez, Chernobyl, and Piper Alpha. How can managers of such high-consequence organizations as nuclear power plants and nuclear explosives handling facilities be sure that similar macro-system processes are not operating in their plants? To date, macro-system effects have not been integrated into risk assessments. Part of the reason for not using macro-system analyses to assess risk may be the impression that standard organizational measurement tools do not provide hard data that can be managed effectively. In this paper, I argue that organizational dimensions, like those in ISO 9000, can be quantified and integrated into standard risk assessments.

Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1985-01-01

The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

Reproducibility and Transparency of Omics Research - Impacts on Human Health Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Omics technologies are becoming more widely used in toxicology, necessitating their consideration in human health hazard and risk assessment programs. Today, risk assessors in the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Toxicologi...

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu

2013-01-01

fed induction generator has been established. Wind penetration variation and multiple stochastic factors of power systems have been considered. The process of transient stability risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method has been described and a comprehensive risk indicator has been proposed......Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....

A route-specific system for risk assessment of radioactive materials transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, J.E.; Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.

1995-01-01

A low-cost, powerful geographic information system (GIS) that operates on a personal computer was integrated into a software system to provide route specific assessment of the risks associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive and hazardous materials in transportation accidents. The highway transportation risk assessment (HITRA) software system described here combines a commercially available GIS (TransCAD) with appropriate models and data files for route- and accident-specific factors, such as meteorology, dispersion, demography, and health effects to permit detailed analysis of transportation risk assessment. The HITRA system allows a user to interactively select a highway or railroad route from a GIS database of major US transportation routes. A route-specific risk assessment is then performed to estimate downwind release concentrations and the resulting potential health effects imposed on the exposed population under local environmental and temporal conditions. The integration of GIS technology with current risk assessment methodology permits detailed analysis coupled with enhanced user interaction. Furthermore, HITRA provides flexibility and documentation for route planning, updating and improving the databases required for evaluating specific transportation routes, changing meteorological and environmental conditions, and local demographics

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Anne Kirstine; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three......) and the fraction of individuals with IMoEs vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz is not likely to be of concern for the reproductive development of their male foetuses. However...

'Ethical rationality': A subjective-objective concept of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, H.

1991-01-01

'Ethical rationality' as a concept of risk assessment means that risks are assessed using an integrative, ethical-normative approach (taking values, world views and people's understanding of what it means to be a human being and of what makes life worth living into account). Thus risks cannot be assessed on a mathematical and statistical basis alone. It is much more important to reflect upon what makes life worth living. In order to answer this question, the rationality of probability calculus does not suffice. Instead, this form of rationality must be transformed into or replaced by ethical discourse (an open, iterative and complex process of making ethical judgement). Proposals for an ethical assessment of risk are made which are substantiated by the theoretical concept of ethical rationality comprising the following steps: - Consideration of the nature of ethics (understanding of the viewer's perspective); - A look at an ethical interpretation of the traditional mathematical concept of risk (description); - Scheme for an ethical conception of rationality (theoretical reflections); - Weighing risks from an ethical perspective in practice. (orig./HSCH) [de

Integrated genomic and BMI analysis for type 2 diabetes risk assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dayanara eLebrón-Aldea

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Type 2 Diabetes (T2D is a chronic disease arising from the development of insulin absence or resistance within the body, and a complex interplay of environmental and genetic factors. The incidence of T2D has increased throughout the last few decades, together with the occurrence of the obesity epidemic. The consideration of variants identified by Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS into risk assessment models for T2D could aid in the identification of at-risk patients who could benefit from preventive medicine. In this study, we build several risk assessment models, and evaluated them with two different classification approaches (Logistic Regression and Neural Networks, to measure the effect of including genetic information in the prediction of T2D. We used data from to the Original and the Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study, which provides phenotypic and genetic information for 5,245 subjects (4,306 controls and 939 cases. Models were built by using several covariates: gender, exposure time, cohort, body mass index (BMI, and 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. We fitted Logistic Regressions and Bayesian Regularized Neural Network and then assessed their predictive ability by using a ten-fold cross validation. We found that the inclusion of genetic information into the risk assessment models increased the predictive ability by 2%, when compared to the baseline model. Furthermore, the models that included BMI at the onset of diabetes as a possible effector, gave an improvement of 6% in the area under the curve derived from the ROC analysis. The highest AUC achieved (0.75 belonged to the model that included BMI, and a genetic score based on the 65 established T2D-associated SNPs. Finally, the inclusion of SNPs and BMI raised predictive ability in all models as expected; however, results from the AUC in Neural Networks and Logistic Regression did not differ significantly in their prediction accuracy.

VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

Integrated supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

2007-01-01

Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

2001-01-01

Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

2001-07-01

Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

2014-01-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Iannicca, Dennis Christopher; Young, Daniel Paul; Suresh, Thadhani; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model to the Kevin Dome site, Montana

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, Minh [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Zhang, Ye [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Carey, James William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stauffer, Philip H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-10-30

The objectives of the Integrated Assessment Model is to enable the Fault Swarm algorithm in the National Risk Assessment Partnership, ensure faults are working in the NRAP-IAM tool, calculate hypothetical fault leakage in NRAP-IAM, and compare leakage rates to Eclipse simulations.

An integral approach to the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarzblat, M.; Arellano, J.

1987-01-01

In this chapter some of the work developed at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas in the area of probabilistic risk analysis are presented. In this area, work has been basically focused in the following directions: development and implementation of methods, and applications to real systems. The first part of this paper describes the area of methods development and implementation, presenting an integrated package of computer programs for fault tree analysis. In the second part some of the most important applications developed for real systems are presented. (author)

Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

2009-07-01

Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2011-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

Science.gov (United States)

Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

2016-02-01

The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources.

NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

2015-01-01

NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

Meeting the challenges in the development of risk-benefit assessment of foods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Rikke; Pilegaard, Kirsten

2018-01-01

challenges are identified and discussed. They include the variety of different definitions and terminologies used in the underlying research disciplines, the differences between the “bottom-up” and the “top-down” approaches and the need for clear risk-benefit questions. The frequent lack of data......Background Risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods aims to assess the combined negative and positive health effects associated with food intake. RBAs integrate chemical and microbiological risk assessment with risk and benefit assessment in nutrition. Scope and Approach Based on the past experiences...... interdisciplinary consensus, reconsideration of methodological approaches and health metrics based on a categorisation of risk-benefit questions, and the performance of case studies to experience the feasibility of the proposed approaches....

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

Science.gov (United States)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2010-04-01

Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

2015-12-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, K.

2013-12-01

Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

2004-04-15

Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

Risk Assessment and Management in the Networked Economy

CERN Document Server

Hussain, Omar K; Hussain, Farookh K; Chang, Elizabeth J

2013-01-01

Risk and reward are always foremost in the determination of investment decisions and business transactions. Advances in the area of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) have enabled the development of new business paradigms. Such paradigms involve transactions taking place between loosely connected parties, often totally or partially unknown to one another. One important concept required to ensure such transactions are successful is transactional risk. The importance of doing this has been demonstrated in recent financial crisis. This book is unique in simultaneously taking into account the likelihood of an event occurring and its financial impact and provides an integrated discussion of the process of transactional risk identification, assessment, evaluation, management and recording in these emerging domains. It provides a detailed and clear exposition of the importance of transactional risk before detailing for its assessment and evaluation.   The scope of the book is theoretical and practical and...

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

Science.gov (United States)

Graber, Robert R.

2010-01-01

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

Supply chain integration, risk management and manufacturing flexibility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chaudhuri, Atanu; Boer, Harry; Taran, Yariv

2018-01-01

, respectively, and manufacturing flexibility. Design/methodology/approach – Using hierarchical regression, data are analyzed from a sample of 343 manufacturing plants in Asia collected in 2013-2014 as part of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS VI). Findings – Internal integration and supply......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal integration, external integration and supply chain risk management on manufacturing flexibility, and the moderating effect of supply chain risk management on the relationships between internal and external integration...... chain risk management have a direct effect on manufacturing flexibility. Supply chain risk management moderates the relationship between external integration and flexibility. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to generalize beyond the flexibility performance of discrete...

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Environmental risk assessment for start-up of a new consolidated maintenance facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heubach, J.G.; Wise, J.A.

1992-10-01

This paper summarizes a case study of a risk assessment for a consolidated maintenance facility (CMF). An interdisciplinary team was formed to identify and evaluate showstopper'' risks which could delay or prevent ontime, safe, and economical operation of a CMF and to recommend ways to mitigate the risks. The risk assessment was constrained by time, information, incomplete plans and facilities, and a concomitant major transition in manufacturing process, organization, and technology. Working within these constraints, the team integrated convergent findings into estimates of high, medium, and low risks based on the subjective likelihood of occurrence and predicted consequences of potential hazard events. The team also made risk-reduction recommendations for facility detail design and production start-up. The findings and recommendations reported in this study focus on risks related to environmental design and workstation ergonomics. Findings from the risk assessment effort should aid other constrained risk assessments and applied research on similar facilities.

Integrated supply chain risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riaan Bredell

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.

Reinforcement of qualitative risk assessment proposals from computer science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedlhuber, T.; Hibti, M.; Rauzy, A.

2013-01-01

During the last decade a lot of research has been made to evaluate concepts and methos of quantitative risk assessment in order to predict hazards more precisely. Nevertheless, the occurrence of new catastrophes like the Indonesian Tsunami in 2004, the Deepwater Horizon accident in 2010 or recently the Fukushima accidents in 2011 raise the question whether we may underestimate some natural limits of annotative risk assessment or even mistake its significance. Especially in the case of very unlikely events, in combination with uncertainty and severe consequences, may be we would do better to concentrate more on understanding risk than on calculating probability values. In this paper we apply progresses, made in the field of computer science, to tools and modelling concepts used in risk assessment. Regarding computer science, we point out now concepts, that may improve the quality of risk models and the process of model engineering. The goal is to reinforce the importance of qualitative risk assessment with the help of sophisticated tools and modelling. Qualitative risk assessment aims to understand risk and therefore reflects the initial idea of risk assessment. Risk understanding requires understanding systems and relations of components. It is fundamental to comprehend the meaning of components in fault- and event trees, to retrace all applied modifications and to highlight critical aspects. It is important how PSA models are visualized, documented, navigated, how results are presented and how model maintenance, integration and version control are performed. Also, the conjoint usage of different type of models (for example PSA models together with event sequence diagrams) can contribute to quality assurance. We present new concepts for various kind of problems. (author)

Cyber/Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Key, Brad; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Craig, Philip A.; Patrick, Scott W.; Crawford, Cary E.

2011-01-01

This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R and D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.

Integration of risk and benefit analysis - The window of benefit as a new tool?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palou, A.; Pico, C.; Keijer, J.

2009-01-01

Foods and food components can have positive and/or negative effects on our health, resulting in benefits and risks. At present these are evaluated in largely separated trajectories. In view of assessment, management, and communication, we here propose and argue for an integrated evaluation of risk

A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

2010-12-01

Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

Science.gov (United States)

Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

2013-04-01

The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the

Probabilistic mercury multimedia exposure assessment in small children and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Morisset, Typhaine; Ramirez-Martinez, Alejandra; Wesolek, Nathalie; Roudot, Alain-Claude

2013-09-01

Emissions of mercury in the environment have been decreasing for several years. However, mercury species are still found in different media (food, water, air and breast-milk). Due to mercury toxicity and typical behaviour in children, we have conducted a mercury exposure assessment in French babies, and small children aged 0 to 36months. Consumption and mercury concentration data were chosen for the exposure assessment. The Monte Carlo technique has been used to calculate the weekly exposure dose in order to integrate inter-individual variability and parameter uncertainty. Exposure values have been compared to toxicological reference values for health risk assessment. Inorganic mercury median exposure levels ranged from 0.160 to 1.649μg/kg of body weight per week (95th percentile (P95): 0.298-2.027µg/kg bw/week); elemental mercury median exposure level in children was 0.11ng/kg bw/week (P95: 28ng/kg bw/week); and methylmercury median exposure level ranged from 0.247 to 0.273µg/kg bw/week (P95: 0.425-0.463µg/kg bw/week). Only elemental mercury by inhalation route (indoor air) and methylmercury by ingestion (fish and breast-milk) seem to lead to a health risk in small children. These results confirm the importance of assessing total mercury concentration in media like breast-milk, indoor air and dust and methylmercury level in food, other than fish and seafood. In this way, informed monitoring plan and risk assessment in an at-risk sub-population can be set. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Application of a Probabilistic Risk-Benefit Assessment Model for Infant Feeding Integrating Microbiological, Nutritional, and Chemical Components.

Science.gov (United States)

Boué, Géraldine; Cummins, Enda; Guillou, Sandrine; Antignac, Jean-Philippe; Le Bizec, Bruno; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2017-12-01

A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second-order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An Integrated Assessment Framework of Offshore Wind Power Projects Applying Equator Principles and Social Life Cycle Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Che Tseng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews offshore wind power project finance and provides an integrated assessment that employs Equator Principles, life cycle assessment, risk assessment, materiality analysis, credit assessment, and ISAE 3000 assurance. We have not seen any comprehensive review papers or book chapters that covers the entire offshore wind power project finance process. We also conducted an SWancor Formosa Phase 1 case study to illustrate the application of integrated assessment to better assist policymakers, wind farm developers, practitioners, potential investors and observers, and stakeholders in their decisions. We believe that this paper can form part of the effort to reduce information asymmetry and the transaction costs of wind power project finance, as well as mobilize green finance investments from the financial sector to renewable energy projects to achieve a national renewable energy policy.

Landslide risk assessment of a slope in Tijuana city, Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aldo Onel Oliva González

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Context: Risk reduction and prevention of disasters events produced by landslides on urban slopes, requires an integral assessment considering conditioning and triggering natural and human factors. Such an assessment is a valuable prevention and mitigation tool for communities under risk and also for authorities involved in the process. Method: In this research, a general methodology for the assessment of landslides on an urban slope was studied and applied, considering the relationship between hazard and physical vulnerability in the zone of study. Hazard was determined by probabilistic methods, whereas vulnerability of the exposed elements was obtained taking into account two kinds of buildings and their spatial distribution, their structural integrity state, their foundation depth and the unstable terrain probable mass volume. Results: Safety factors were obtained under allowable levels to warrant stability of the slope under study, and valuation factors of the qualitative analysis indicate that the slope is unstable and that requires urgent maintenance. This confirms and validates the high probability of occurrence in the zone, obtained from historic records. Conclusions: It was found that landslide risk in the slope is high due to the high probability of its occurrence, with three possible movement directions that may impact on several buildings located in the zone. Assessment constitutes a work tool for institutions and authorities related with risk reduction due to landslides, as a way of prevent and mitigate disaster prone events.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Beronius, Anna; Hanberg, Annika; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina

2014-12-01

Regulatory risk assessment is traditionally based primarily on toxicity studies conducted according to standardized and internationally validated test guidelines. However, health risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is argued to rely on the efficient integration of findings from academic research. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current developments to facilitate the use of academic research in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals and how certain aspects of study design and reporting are particularly important for the risk assessment process. By bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of EDCs, scientific uncertainty in risk assessment conclusions can be reduced, allowing for better targeted policy decisions for chemical risk reduction. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrated laboratory coagulation tests in hypercoagulation diagnosis and thrombosis risk assessment. Part I. The pathophysiology of thrombosis and hypercoagulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. N. Lipets

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Thrombosis is a fatal hemostatic disorders occurring in various conditions ranging from pregnancy and surgery to cancer, sepsis and heart attack. Despite the availability of different anticoagulants and accumulated clinical experience, proving their effectiveness, thrombosis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. This is largely due to the fact that conventional laboratory coagulation tests are not sufficiently sensitive to the hypercoagulable state, and they are difficult to use for assessing the risk of thrombosis. Specific molecular markers (D-dimers, fibrinopeptide, thrombin-antithrombin complex are more effective, but also have a large number of disadvantages. A possible solution is the use of integrated test, which simulate in vitro the majority of the physiological coagulation processes. In the first part of this paper the biochemical processes that cause the risk of thrombosis were discussed.

Identifying and assessing the risk of opioid abuse in patients with cancer: an integrative review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmichael AN

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Ashley-Nicole Carmichael,1 Laura Morgan,1 Egidio Del Fabbro2 1School of Pharmacy, 2Division of Hematology, Oncology, and Palliative Care, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Background: The misuse and abuse of opioid medications in many developed nations is a health crisis, leading to increased health-system utilization, emergency department visits, and overdose deaths. There are also increasing concerns about opioid abuse and diversion in patients with cancer, even at the end of life. Aims: To evaluate the current literature on opioid misuse and abuse, and more specifically the identification and assessment of opioid-abuse risk in patients with cancer. Our secondary aim is to offer the most current evidence of best clinical practice and suggest future directions for research. Materials and methods: Our integrative review included a literature search using the key terms “identification and assessment of opioid abuse in cancer”, “advanced cancer and opioid abuse”, “hospice and opioid abuse”, and “palliative care and opioid abuse”. PubMed, PsycInfo, and Embase were supplemented by a manual search. Results: We found 691 articles and eliminated 657, because they were predominantly noncancer populations or specifically excluded cancer patients. A total of 34 articles met our criteria, including case studies, case series, retrospective observational studies, and narrative reviews. The studies were categorized into screening questionnaires for opioid abuse or alcohol, urine drug screens to identify opioid misuse or abuse, prescription drug-monitoring programs, and the use of universal precautions. Conclusion: Screening questionnaires and urine drug screens indicated at least one in five patients with cancer may be at risk of opioid-use disorder. Several studies demonstrated associations between high-risk patients and clinical outcomes, such as aberrant behavior, prolonged opioid use, higher morphine-equivalent daily dose

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Site-Specific ecological risk assessment. Case-study 2

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, John

“Development of a decision support system for sustainable management of contaminated land by linking bioavailability, ecological risk and ground water pollution of organic pollutants”or in short “LIBERATION”. The presentation includes examples on how to scale and integrate the results from various scientific......The decision supporting and integrating assessment tool, TRIAD, is used site-specific on PAH- and heavy metal contaminated sites in Denmark. The various aspects of the TRIAD approach are used on a set of chemistry-, ecotoxicology- and ecology related data collected among others in the EU project...

Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

2017-01-01

The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2012-01-01

It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

2015-02-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

Science.gov (United States)

Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

2016-05-01

The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century - Conference Abstract ...

Science.gov (United States)

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer sufficient. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS reports: “Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century”, “Exposure Science in the 21st Century”, and most recently, “Using 21st Century Science to Improve Risk-Related Evaluations.” The presentation highlights many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action concept into the chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing the exposome is presented, as is the systems-based AEP that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework

Introduction of a conceptual model for integrating the MMPI-2-RF into HCR-20V3 violence risk assessments and associations between the MMPI-2-RF and institutional violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarescavage, Anthony M; Glassmire, David M; Burchett, Danielle

2016-12-01

Reflecting the need to prevent violence, structured professional judgment assessment tools have been developed specifically to assess the likelihood of future violence. These tools typically integrate data from clinical interviews and collateral records to assist in the conceptualization of violence risk, but objective psychological testing may also be useful in completing the instruments. The authors describe the advantages of using the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) in this manner with the Historical Clinical Management-20 Version 3 (HCR-20 V3 ). Accordingly, they have 2 purposes. First, they sought to identify conceptual links between the constructs measured by the tools and introduce a model to integrate MMPI-2-RF findings into an HCR-20 V3 risk assessment. Second, although the authors did not have collateral HCR-20 V3 ratings, they sought to examine associations between the MMPI-2-RF scales and future violence in a sample of 303 psychiatric patients (233 males, 70 females) adjudicated as not guilty by reason of insanity. The authors found that the MMPI-2-RF scales demonstrated significant, meaningful associations with a count of future violent acts at the hospital. The largest associations involved scales measuring emotional dysregulation and externalizing dysfunction. These associations were qualified by relative risk ratio analyses indicating that patients producing elevations on these scales were at 1.5 to 2.5 times greater risk of future violence than those without elevations. Overall, the findings indicated that most MMPI-2-RF scales conceptually linked to the HCR-20 V3 risk factors were associated with future violence. In light of these findings, the authors discuss recommendations for integrating the MMPI-2-RF when interpreting HCR-20 V3 risk factors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The role of computer modelling in participatory integrated assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siebenhuener, Bernd; Barth, Volker

2005-01-01

In a number of recent research projects, computer models have been included in participatory procedures to assess global environmental change. The intention was to support knowledge production and to help the involved non-scientists to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions between natural and social systems. This paper analyses the experiences made in three projects with the use of computer models from a participatory and a risk management perspective. Our cross-cutting analysis of the objectives, the employed project designs and moderation schemes and the observed learning processes in participatory processes with model use shows that models play a mixed role in informing participants and stimulating discussions. However, no deeper reflection on values and belief systems could be achieved. In terms of the risk management phases, computer models serve best the purposes of problem definition and option assessment within participatory integrated assessment (PIA) processes

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century | Science Inventory | US ...

Science.gov (United States)

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer adequate. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS report on Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century, highlighting many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action framework into a chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing exposome also is presented. Finally, the systems-based AEP is described that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework. For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response as

Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Polo

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Determination of Safety Performance Grade of NPP Using Integrated Safety Performance Assessment (ISPA) Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Dae Wook

2011-01-01

Since the beginning of 2000, the safety regulation of nuclear power plant (NPP) has been challenged to be conducted more reasonable, effective and efficient way using risk and performance information. In the United States, USNRC established Reactor Oversight Process (ROP) in 2000 for improving the effectiveness of safety regulation of operating NPPs. The main idea of ROP is to classify the NPPs into 5 categories based on the results of safety performance assessment and to conduct graded regulatory programs according to categorization, which might be interpreted as 'Graded Regulation'. However, the classification of safety performance categories is highly comprehensive and sensitive process so that safety performance assessment program should be prepared in integrated, objective and quantitative manner. Furthermore, the results of assessment should characterize and categorize the actual level of safety performance of specific NPP, integrating all the substantial elements for assessing the safety performance. In consideration of particular regulatory environment in Korea, the integrated safety performance assessment (ISPA) program is being under development for the use in the determination of safety performance grade (SPG) of a NPP. The ISPA program consists of 6 individual assessment programs (4 quantitative and 2 qualitative) which cover the overall safety performance of NPP. Some of the assessment programs which are already implemented are used directly or modified for incorporating risk aspects. The others which are not existing regulatory programs are newly developed. Eventually, all the assessment results from individual assessment programs are produced and integrated to determine the safety performance grade of a specific NPP

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms based on a novel probabilistic rupture risk index.

Science.gov (United States)

Polzer, Stanislav; Gasser, T Christian

2015-12-06

A rupture risk assessment is critical to the clinical treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients. The biomechanical AAA rupture risk assessment quantitatively integrates many known AAA rupture risk factors but the variability of risk predictions due to model input uncertainties remains a challenging limitation. This study derives a probabilistic rupture risk index (PRRI). Specifically, the uncertainties in AAA wall thickness and wall strength were considered, and wall stress was predicted with a state-of-the-art deterministic biomechanical model. The discriminative power of PRRI was tested in a diameter-matched cohort of ruptured (n = 7) and intact (n = 7) AAAs and compared to alternative risk assessment methods. Computed PRRI at 1.5 mean arterial pressure was significantly (p = 0.041) higher in ruptured AAAs (20.21(s.d. 14.15%)) than in intact AAAs (3.71(s.d. 5.77)%). PRRI showed a high sensitivity and specificity (discriminative power of 0.837) to discriminate between ruptured and intact AAA cases. The underlying statistical representation of stochastic data of wall thickness, wall strength and peak wall stress had only negligible effects on PRRI computations. Uncertainties in AAA wall stress predictions, the wide range of reported wall strength and the stochastic nature of failure motivate a probabilistic rupture risk assessment. Advanced AAA biomechanical modelling paired with a probabilistic rupture index definition as known from engineering risk assessment seems to be superior to a purely deterministic approach. © 2015 The Author(s).

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Saile, Lyn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; Kerstman, Eric; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

2011-01-01

INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list

Fault Risk Assessment of Underwater Vehicle Steering System Based on Virtual Prototyping and Monte Carlo Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

He Deyu

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Assessing the risks of steering system faults in underwater vehicles is a human-machine-environment (HME systematic safety field that studies faults in the steering system itself, the driver’s human reliability (HR and various environmental conditions. This paper proposed a fault risk assessment method for an underwater vehicle steering system based on virtual prototyping and Monte Carlo simulation. A virtual steering system prototype was established and validated to rectify a lack of historic fault data. Fault injection and simulation were conducted to acquire fault simulation data. A Monte Carlo simulation was adopted that integrated randomness due to the human operator and environment. Randomness and uncertainty of the human, machine and environment were integrated in the method to obtain a probabilistic risk indicator. To verify the proposed method, a case of stuck rudder fault (SRF risk assessment was studied. This method may provide a novel solution for fault risk assessment of a vehicle or other general HME system.