Sample records for integrated land-use model
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Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.
2012-12-01
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.
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Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale
Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.
2009-04-01
In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information
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Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China
Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li
2014-03-01
With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.
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Wada, Y.
2017-12-01
Humanity has already reached or even exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. Growing needs for food, energy and water will only exacerbate existing challenges over the next decades. Consequently, the acceptance of "business as usual" is eroding and we are being challenged to adopt new, more integrated, and more inclusive development pathways that avoid dangerous interference with the local environment and global planetary boundaries. This challenge is embodied in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which endeavor to set a global agenda for moving towards more sustainable development strategies. To improve and sustain human welfare, it is critical that access to modern, reliable, and affordable water, energy, and food is expanded and maintained. The Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL) project has been launched by IIASA, together with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). This project focuses on the water-energy-land nexus in the context of other major global challenges such as urbanization, environmental degradation, and equitable and sustainable futures. It develops a consistent framework for looking at the water-energy-land nexus and identify strategies for achieving the needed transformational outcomes through an advanced assessment framework. A multi-scalar approach are being developed that aims to combine global and regional integrated assessment tools with local stakeholder knowledge in order to identify robust solutions to energy, water, food, and ecosystem security in selected regions of the world. These are regions facing multiple energy, water and land use challenges and rapid demographic and economic changes, and are hardest hit by increasing climate variability and change. This project combines the global integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) with the global land (GLOBIOM) and water (Community Water Model) model respectively, and the integrated
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O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.
2016-12-01
Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.
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Integrated modelling and the impacts of water management on land use
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R
2008-01-01
River systems and the quantity and quality of water depend on the catchment, its structure and land use. In central Europe especially land is a scarce resource. This causes conflicts between different types of land use, but also with the interests of flood protection, nature conservation and the protection of water resources and water bodies in the flood plain and on a catchment scale. ILUP - Integrated Land Use Planning and River Basin Management was a project, funded by the European Union, to address the problems of conflicting interests within a catchment. It addressed the problems of conflicting land use from a hydrological perspective and with regard to the resulting problems of water management. Two test river basins, Vils and Rott, both with a catchment size of about 1000 square kilometres, were considered for the German part of the project. Objective of the project was to identify means of managing land use with regard to water management objectives and adapt planning strategies and methodologies of water management authorities to the new needs of catchment management and planning. Catchment models were derived to simulate hydrological processes, assess the safety of dams and improve the control strategy of detention reservoirs with regard to land use in the lower system. Hydrodynamic models provided the basis to assess flood prone areas, evaluate flood protection measures and analyze the impacts of river training and discharge on morphology. Erosion and transport models were used to assess the impacts of land use on water quality. Maps were compiled from model results to provide a basis for decision making. In test areas new ways of planning and implementation of measures were tested. As a result of model scenarios in combination with the socio economic situation in the catchment new methods of land management and land use management were derived and implemented in model areas. The results of the project show that new ways of managing land use in river
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van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.
2013-01-01
Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land
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Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.
2016-01-01
We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...
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Hibbard, K.; Janetos, A.; Vuuren, van D.; Pongratz, J.; Rose, S.; Betts, R.; Herold, M.; Feddema, J.
2010-01-01
This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated
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Climate change and land use. Towards the Nexus Land Use model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazas, C.
2007-01-01
The objective of this study is to examine the impacts of arbitrations on land use (choice between urban development, agriculture, infrastructures, forests, free spaces, and so on, which are concurrent and exclusive) on greenhouse gas emissions. The first part highlights the complexity of this issue as land use can both generate important greenhouse gas emissions (through deforestation, methane emission by cattle, nitrogenous fertilizers) and absorb large quantities of CO 2 . The second part analyses and discusses the extent and the reasons of deforestation, commenting the situation in developed countries and in the case of the tropical forest. The third part describes the competition between land uses, reviews existing economical models, and presents the Nexus Land Use model which could be able to integrate agricultural and forestry challenges at the planet scale
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Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun
2016-01-01
The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.
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Developing land market data for use in a state wide land use and transportation model
1997-10-01
This working paper describes the process used to develop land market variables : for use by TRANUS in the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration : Program (TLUMIP). One of the key variables developed during this phase of the : project is the m...
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Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha
2014-01-01
State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...
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Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.
2016-12-01
Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are
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Sleeter, B. M.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Fortin, M. J.
2016-12-01
State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general approach for incorporating uncertainty into forecasts of landscape change. Using a Monte Carlo approach, STSMs generate spatially-explicit projections of the state of a landscape based upon probabilistic transitions defined between states. While STSMs are based on the basic principles of Markov chains, they have additional properties that make them applicable to a wide range of questions and types of landscapes. A current limitation of STSMs is that they are only able to track the fate of discrete state variables, such as land use/land cover (LULC) classes. There are some landscape modelling questions, however, for which continuous state variables - for example carbon biomass - are also required. Here we present a new approach for integrating continuous state variables into spatially-explicit STSMs. Specifically we allow any number of continuous state variables to be defined for each spatial cell in our simulations; the value of each continuous variable is then simulated forward in discrete time as a stochastic process based upon defined rates of change between variables. These rates can be defined as a function of the realized states and transitions of each cell in the STSM, thus providing a connection between the continuous variables and the dynamics of the landscape. We demonstrate this new approach by (1) developing a simple IPCC Tier 3 compliant model of ecosystem carbon biomass, where the continuous state variables are defined as terrestrial carbon biomass pools and the rates of change as carbon fluxes between pools, and (2) integrating this carbon model with an existing LULC change model for the state of Hawaii, USA.
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Predicting freshwater habitat integrity using land-use surrogates
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2007-04-02
Apr 2, 2007 ... Quantification of potential surrogates of freshwater habitat integrity. We chose a series of land-use variables that might be suitable predictors for assessing freshwater habitat integrity from the land cover map (CSIR 2005) and added separate GIS surfaces for human population density and the distribution of ...
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Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette
2016-10-01
We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Di Vittorio, Alan V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chini, Louise M. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Truesdale, John E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Craig, Anthony P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hurtt, George [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Thornton, Peter E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Thomson, Allison M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2014-11-27
Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.
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Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale
Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.
2014-11-01
Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Babak Farjad
2017-10-01
Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benjamin M. Sleeter
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization, often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent
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Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang
2015-01-01
Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. B. Mansor
2012-08-01
Full Text Available In this study, a geospatial model for land use allocation was developed from the view of simulating the biological autonomous adaptability to environment and the infrastructural preference. The model was developed based on multi-agent genetic algorithm. The model was customized to accommodate the constraint set for the study area, namely the resource saving and environmental-friendly. The model was then applied to solve the practical multi-objective spatial optimization allocation problems of land use in the core region of Menderjan Basin in Iran. The first task was to study the dominant crops and economic suitability evaluation of land. Second task was to determine the fitness function for the genetic algorithms. The third objective was to optimize the land use map using economical benefits. The results has indicated that the proposed model has much better performance for solving complex multi-objective spatial optimization allocation problems and it is a promising method for generating land use alternatives for further consideration in spatial decision-making.
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EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...
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Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis
Riseng, C.M.; Wiley, M.J.; Black, R.W.; Munn, M.D.
2011-01-01
Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture-dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation-wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality-related stresses. Regionspecific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In theWestern Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain andWestern Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and
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Integrated Land-Water-Energy assessment using the Foreseer Tool
Allwood, Julian; Konadu, Dennis; Mourao, Zenaida; Lupton, Rick; Richards, Keith; Fenner, Richard; Skelton, Sandy; McMahon, Richard
2016-04-01
This study presents an integrated energy and resource modelling and visualisation approach, ForeseerTM, which characterises the interdependencies and evaluates the land and water requirement for energy system pathways. The Foreseer Tool maps linked energy, water and land resource futures by outputting a set of Sankey diagrams for energy, water and land, showing the flow from basic resource (e.g. coal, surface water, and forested land) through transformations (e.g. fuel refining and desalination) to final services (e.g. sustenance, hygiene and transportation). By 'mapping' resources in this way, policy-makers can more easily understand the competing uses through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. food production, landscaping, energy), the potential opportunities for improving the management of the resource and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy. This paper will present a case study of the UK Carbon Plan, and highlights the need for integrated resource planning and policy development.
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Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Pressey, Robert L; Ban, Natalie C; Brodie, Jon
2015-01-01
study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh
2009-01-01
This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains...... to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment......, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent....
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EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change mod...
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developing a one stop shop model for integrated land information
African Journals Online (AJOL)
DEPT OF AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
which will integrate the data on land ownership, land use and land value for all the land agen- ... services to the investor and other potential clients of land sector agencies involved in the land ..... account types such as a general user, re-.
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Improving Land Use/Land Cover Classification by Integrating Pixel Unmixing and Decision Tree Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chao Yang
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Decision tree classification is one of the most efficient methods for obtaining land use/land cover (LULC information from remotely sensed imageries. However, traditional decision tree classification methods cannot effectively eliminate the influence of mixed pixels. This study aimed to integrate pixel unmixing and decision tree to improve LULC classification by removing mixed pixel influence. The abundance and minimum noise fraction (MNF results that were obtained from mixed pixel decomposition were added to decision tree multi-features using a three-dimensional (3D Terrain model, which was created using an image fusion digital elevation model (DEM, to select training samples (ROIs, and improve ROI separability. A Landsat-8 OLI image of the Yunlong Reservoir Basin in Kunming was used to test this proposed method. Study results showed that the Kappa coefficient and the overall accuracy of integrated pixel unmixing and decision tree method increased by 0.093% and 10%, respectively, as compared with the original decision tree method. This proposed method could effectively eliminate the influence of mixed pixels and improve the accuracy in complex LULC classifications.
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Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Pressey, Robert L.; Ban, Natalie C.; Brodie, Jon
2015-01-01
study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management. PMID:26714166
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge G Álvarez-Romero
sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management.
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Chou, H. K.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.
2017-12-01
Community land surface models such as JULES are increasingly used for hydrological assessment because of their state-of-the-art representation of land-surface processes. However, a major weakness of JULES and other land surface models is the limited number of land surface parameterizations that is available. Therefore, this study explores the use of data from a network of catchments under homogeneous land-use to generate parameter "libraries" to extent the land surface parameterizations of JULES. The network (called iMHEA) is part of a grassroots initiative to characterise the hydrological response of different Andean ecosystems, and collects data on streamflow, precipitation, and several weather variables at a high temporal resolution. The tropical Andes are a useful case study because of the complexity of meteorological and geographical conditions combined with extremely heterogeneous land-use that result in a wide range of hydrological responses. We then calibrated JULES for each land-use represented in the iMHEA dataset. For the individual land-use types, the results show improved simulations of streamflow when using the calibrated parameters with respect to default values. In particular, the partitioning between surface and subsurface flows can be improved. But also, on a regional scale, hydrological modelling was greatly benefitted from constraining parameters using such distributed citizen-science generated streamflow data. This study demonstrates the modelling and prediction on regional hydrology by integrating citizen science and land surface model. In the context of hydrological study, the limitation of data scarcity could be solved indeed by using this framework. Improved predictions of such impacts could be leveraged by catchment managers to guide watershed interventions, to evaluate their effectiveness, and to minimize risks.
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Aligning Land Use with Land Potential: The Role of Integrated Agriculture
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. A. Liebig
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Contemporary agricultural land use is dominated by an emphasis on provisioning services by applying energy-intensive inputs through relatively uniform production systems across variable landscapes. This approach to agricultural land use is not sustainable. Achieving sustainable use of agricultural land should instead focus on the application of innovative management systems that provide multiple ecosystem services on lands with varying inherent qualities. Integrated agricultural systems (IAS represent an alternative approach to prevailing land use, whereby site-adapted enterprises are implemented to enhance synergistic resource transfer among enterprises and sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. Sustainable deployment of IAS on agricultural land involves placing the “right enterprise” at the “right intensity” at the “right time” on the “right location,” with the inherent attributes of location providing guidance for management decisions. There is an urgent need to design IAS that enhance delivery of ecosystem services while ensuring land potential thresholds are not exceeded.
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Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh
2013-01-01
Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.
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Shooshtarian, Mohammad Reza; Dehghani, Mansooreh; Margherita, Ferrante; Gea, Oliveri Conti; Mortezazadeh, Shima
2018-04-01
This study aggregated Land Change Modeller (LCM) as a useful model in GIS with an extended Groundwater Quality Index (GWQI) developed by fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making models to investigate the effect of land use change and conversion on groundwater quality being supplied for drinking. The model's performance was examined through an applied study in Shiraz, Iran, in a five year period (2011 to 2015). Four land use maps including urban, industrial, garden, and bare were employed in LCM model and the impact of change in area and their conversion to each other on GWQI changes was analysed. The correlation analysis indicated that increase in the urban land use area and conversion of bare to the residential/industrial land uses, had a relation with water quality decrease. Integration of LCM and GWQI can accurately and logically provide a numerical analysis of the possible impact of land use change and conversion, as one of the influencing factors, on the groundwater quality. Hence, the methodology could be used in urban development planning and management in macro level. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Messier, Kyle P; Akita, Yasuyuki; Serre, Marc L
2012-03-06
Geographic information systems (GIS) based techniques are cost-effective and efficient methods used by state agencies and epidemiology researchers for estimating concentration and exposure. However, budget limitations have made statewide assessments of contamination difficult, especially in groundwater media. Many studies have implemented address geocoding, land use regression, and geostatistics independently, but this is the first to examine the benefits of integrating these GIS techniques to address the need of statewide exposure assessments. A novel framework for concentration exposure is introduced that integrates address geocoding, land use regression (LUR), below detect data modeling, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). A LUR model was developed for tetrachloroethylene that accounts for point sources and flow direction. We then integrate the LUR model into the BME method as a mean trend while also modeling below detects data as a truncated Gaussian probability distribution function. We increase available PCE data 4.7 times from previously available databases through multistage geocoding. The LUR model shows significant influence of dry cleaners at short ranges. The integration of the LUR model as mean trend in BME results in a 7.5% decrease in cross validation mean square error compared to BME with a constant mean trend.
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Linking the effects of land use change with water quality and discharge :an integrated approach
Fauss, Lynn Michael
1992-01-01
Hydrologic and water-quality equilibria are greatly affected by changing land use. This study presents a methodology that integrates the use of remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS) and water-quality modeling. Archived aerial photography proved to be a valuable source of historical land use data. GIS technology was used to compile and analyze spatial data. A comprehensive watershed model was used to link the effects of land use change to water quali...
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Fishery landing forecasting using EMD-based least square support vector machine models
Shabri, Ani
2015-05-01
In this paper, the novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and least square support machine (LSSVM) is proposed to improve the accuracy of fishery landing forecasting. This hybrid is formulated specifically to address in modeling fishery landing, which has high nonlinear, non-stationary and seasonality time series which can hardly be properly modelled and accurately forecasted by traditional statistical models. In the hybrid model, EMD is used to decompose original data into a finite and often small number of sub-series. The each sub-series is modeled and forecasted by a LSSVM model. Finally the forecast of fishery landing is obtained by aggregating all forecasting results of sub-series. To assess the effectiveness and predictability of EMD-LSSVM, monthly fishery landing record data from East Johor of Peninsular Malaysia, have been used as a case study. The result shows that proposed model yield better forecasts than Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), LSSVM and EMD-ARIMA models on several criteria..
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bhagawat Rimal
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Spatial–temporal analysis of land-use/land-cover (LULC change as well as the monitoring and modeling of urban expansion are essential for the planning and management of urban environments. Such environments reflect the economic conditions and quality of life of the individual country. Urbanization is generally influenced by national laws, plans and policies and by power, politics and poor governance in many less-developed countries. Remote sensing tools play a vital role in monitoring LULC change and measuring the rate of urbanization at both the local and global levels. The current study evaluated the LULC changes and urban expansion of Jhapa district of Nepal. The spatial–temporal dynamics of LULC were identified using six time-series atmospherically-corrected surface reflectance Landsat images from 1989 to 2016. A hybrid cellular automata Markov chain (CA–Markov model was used to simulate future urbanization by 2026 and 2036. The analysis shows that the urban area has increased markedly and is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future, whereas the area for agriculture has decreased. Meanwhile, forest and shrub areas have remained almost constant. Seasonal rainfall and flooding routinely cause predictable transformation of sand, water bodies and cultivated land from one type to another. The results suggest that the use of Landsat time-series archive images and the CA–Markov model are the best options for long-term spatiotemporal analysis and achieving an acceptable level of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the relationship between the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and LULC change and simulating future landscape change is essential, as they are closely interlinked. These scientific findings of past, present and future land-cover scenarios of the study area will assist planners/decision-makers to formulate sustainable urban development and environmental protection plans and will remain a scientific asset
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yaolin Liu
Full Text Available Optimizing land-use allocation is important to regional sustainable development, as it promotes the social equality of public services, increases the economic benefits of land-use activities, and reduces the ecological risk of land-use planning. Most land-use optimization models allocate land-use using cell-level operations that fragment land-use patches. These models do not cooperate well with land-use planning knowledge, leading to irrational land-use patterns. This study focuses on building a heuristic land-use allocation model (PSOLA using particle swarm optimization. The model allocates land-use with patch-level operations to avoid fragmentation. The patch-level operations include a patch-edge operator, a patch-size operator, and a patch-compactness operator that constrain the size and shape of land-use patches. The model is also integrated with knowledge-informed rules to provide auxiliary knowledge of land-use planning during optimization. The knowledge-informed rules consist of suitability, accessibility, land use policy, and stakeholders' preference. To validate the PSOLA model, a case study was performed in Gaoqiao Town in Zhejiang Province, China. The results demonstrate that the PSOLA model outperforms a basic PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization in the terms of the social, economic, ecological, and overall benefits by 3.60%, 7.10%, 1.53% and 4.06%, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of our improvements. Furthermore, the model has an open architecture, enabling its extension as a generic tool to support decision making in land-use planning.
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Foley, J. A.
2003-12-01
Over the last two hundred years, much of the Mississippi basin has been converted from forest, savanna and grassland to mosaic of agricultural and urban areas. Furthermore, technological changes -- especially those dealing with agricultural practices like fertilizer use -- have also had a widespread affect on environmental systems in the basin. Taken together, the massive transformation of land cover and agricultural land use practices have had a tremendous effect on the hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological processes occurring within the region. This transformation of the basin has a significant impact on human welfare and that other of other species, primarily through changing the distribution of ecosystem "goods and services" produced there. Here we present results that examine how large-scale changes in land use and land cover of the basin may have affected: (i) large-scale water balance and hydrology; (ii) water quality, especially nitrate concentrations; (iii) ecosystem productivity and carbon storage; and (iv) agricultural yield. In this study, we use a combination of process-based ecosystem models (for both natural ecosystems and agricultural systems), large-scale hydrological routing models, and detailed historical land use and climatic datasets. By comparing the response of different environmental processes to combinations of land use and climatic drivers, we may examine the underlying "resilience" of these ecosystems -- and how they may respond to environmental changes. Furthermore, we examine the tradeoffs between ecosystem goods and services -- such as a potential balance between increasing crop yields and decreasing water quality -- on a regional scale. Such regional-scale integrative studies are only now in their infancy. But they represent a framework for exploring the complex interactions between human societies, local landscapes, and regional environmental processes. Such "place-based" integrative studies should be compared to other regions
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Sensing Urban Land-Use Patterns by Integrating Google Tensorflow and Scene-Classification Models
Yao, Y.; Liang, H.; Li, X.; Zhang, J.; He, J.
2017-09-01
With the rapid progress of China's urbanization, research on the automatic detection of land-use patterns in Chinese cities is of substantial importance. Deep learning is an effective method to extract image features. To take advantage of the deep-learning method in detecting urban land-use patterns, we applied a transfer-learning-based remote-sensing image approach to extract and classify features. Using the Google Tensorflow framework, a powerful convolution neural network (CNN) library was created. First, the transferred model was previously trained on ImageNet, one of the largest object-image data sets, to fully develop the model's ability to generate feature vectors of standard remote-sensing land-cover data sets (UC Merced and WHU-SIRI). Then, a random-forest-based classifier was constructed and trained on these generated vectors to classify the actual urban land-use pattern on the scale of traffic analysis zones (TAZs). To avoid the multi-scale effect of remote-sensing imagery, a large random patch (LRP) method was used. The proposed method could efficiently obtain acceptable accuracy (OA = 0.794, Kappa = 0.737) for the study area. In addition, the results show that the proposed method can effectively overcome the multi-scale effect that occurs in urban land-use classification at the irregular land-parcel level. The proposed method can help planners monitor dynamic urban land use and evaluate the impact of urban-planning schemes.
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Countermeasures for Intensive Use of Land from the Perspective of Urban-Rural Integration
Jia, Li-bin
2012-01-01
This paper analyzes problems of excessive emphasis on expansion of urban land, improper village and town construction, and low land utilization efficiency in urban-rural integration construction. In line with characteristics and principle of intensive land use of urban-rural integration, it puts forward integration of urban-rural land layout, practically exploring connotation, and improving land intensification in many ways. Based on these, it presents countermeasures for intensive use of lan...
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Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.
1992-01-01
Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce
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Kim, E.; Tedesco, M.; Reichle, R.; Choudhury, B.; Peters-Lidard C.; Foster, J.; Hall, D.; Riggs, G.
2006-01-01
Microwave-based retrievals of snow parameters from satellite observations have a long heritage and have so far been generated primarily by regression-based empirical "inversion" methods based on snapshots in time. Direct assimilation of microwave radiance into physical land surface models can be used to avoid errors associated with such retrieval/inversion methods, instead utilizing more straightforward forward models and temporal information. This approach has been used for years for atmospheric parameters by the operational weather forecasting community with great success. Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling, physical land surface modeling, and land data assimilation are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated framework for snow/cold lands modeling and radiance assimilation. The objective of the Goddard snow radiance assimilation project is to develop such a framework and explore its capabilities. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. In fact, multiple models are available for each element enabling optimization to match the needs of a particular study. Together these form a modular and flexible framework for self-consistent, physically-based remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster. Capabilities for assimilation of snow retrieval products are already under development for LIS. We will describe plans to add radiance-based assimilation capabilities. Plans for validation activities using field measurements will also be discussed.
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Modelling past land use using archaeological and pollen data
Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, johan; Poska, Anneli; Gaillard-Lemdahl, Marie-José
2016-04-01
Accurate maps of past land use are necessary for studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate and biodiversity. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct the land use using Gaussian Markov random fields. The model uses two observations sets: 1) archaeological data, representing human settlements, urbanization and agricultural findings; and 2) pollen-based land estimates of the three land-cover types Coniferous forest, Broadleaved forest and Unforested/Open land. The pollen based estimates are obtained from the REVEALS model, based on pollen counts from lakes and bogs. Our developed model uses the sparse pollen-based estimations to reconstruct the spatial continuous cover of three land cover types. Using the open-land component and the archaeological data, the extent of land-use is reconstructed. The model is applied on three time periods - centred around 1900 CE, 1000 and, 4000 BCE over Sweden for which both pollen-based estimates and archaeological data are available. To estimate the model parameters and land use, a block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is applied. Using the MCMC posterior samples uncertainties in land-use predictions are computed. Due to lack of good historic land use data, model results are evaluated by cross-validation. Keywords. Spatial reconstruction, Gaussian Markov random field, Fossil pollen records, Archaeological data, Human land-use, Prediction uncertainty
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Integrating fire management analysis into land management planning
Thomas J. Mills
1983-01-01
The analysis of alternative fire management programs should be integrated into the land and resource management planning process, but a single fire management analysis model cannot meet all planning needs. Therefore, a set of simulation models that are analytically separate from integrated land management planning models are required. The design of four levels of fire...
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Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models
Verburg, P.H.
2006-01-01
In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore
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Integrating ecosystem-service tradeoffs into land-use decisions
Goldstein, Joshua H.; Caldarone, Giorgio; Duarte, Thomas Kaeo; Ennaanay, Driss; Hannahs, Neil; Mendoza, Guillermo; Polasky, Stephen; Wolny, Stacie; Daily, Gretchen C.
2012-01-01
Recent high-profile efforts have called for integrating ecosystem-service values into important societal decisions, but there are few demonstrations of this approach in practice. We quantified ecosystem-service values to help the largest private landowner in Hawaii, Kamehameha Schools, design a land-use development plan that balances multiple private and public values on its North Shore land holdings (Island of O’ahu) of ∼10,600 ha. We used the InVEST software tool to evaluate the environment...
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An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF
Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Eastman, Joseph L.; Tao, Wei-Kuo
2007-01-01
Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.
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Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C
2014-01-01
Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicholas R Magliocca
Full Text Available Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model
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Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model
Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.
2013-12-01
In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are
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Modeling Historical Land Cover and Land Use: A Review fromContemporary Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laura Alfonsina Chang-Martínez
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Spatially-explicit land cover land use change (LCLUC models are becoming increasingly useful tools for historians and archaeologists. Such kinds of models have been developed and used by geographers, ecologists and land managers over the last few decades to carry out prospective scenarios. In this paper, we review historical models to compare them with prospective models, with the assumption that the ample experience gained in the development of models of prospective simulation can benefit the development of models having as their objective the simulation of changes that happened in the past. The review is divided into three sections: in the first section, we explain the functioning of contemporary LCLUC models; in the second section, we analyze historical LCLUC models; in the third section, we compare the former two types of models, and finally, we discuss the contributions to historical LCLUC models of contemporary LCLUC models.
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Verstegen, J.A.; Hilst, van der Floor; Woltjer, Geert; Karssenberg, Derek; Jong, de S.M.; Faaij, André P.C.
2016-01-01
It is commonly recognized that large uncertainties exist in modelled biofuel-induced indirect land-use change, but until now, spatially explicit quantification of such uncertainties by means of error propagation modelling has never been performed. In this study, we demonstrate a general
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SENSING URBAN LAND-USE PATTERNS BY INTEGRATING GOOGLE TENSORFLOW AND SCENE-CLASSIFICATION MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Yao
2017-09-01
Full Text Available With the rapid progress of China’s urbanization, research on the automatic detection of land-use patterns in Chinese cities is of substantial importance. Deep learning is an effective method to extract image features. To take advantage of the deep-learning method in detecting urban land-use patterns, we applied a transfer-learning-based remote-sensing image approach to extract and classify features. Using the Google Tensorflow framework, a powerful convolution neural network (CNN library was created. First, the transferred model was previously trained on ImageNet, one of the largest object-image data sets, to fully develop the model’s ability to generate feature vectors of standard remote-sensing land-cover data sets (UC Merced and WHU-SIRI. Then, a random-forest-based classifier was constructed and trained on these generated vectors to classify the actual urban land-use pattern on the scale of traffic analysis zones (TAZs. To avoid the multi-scale effect of remote-sensing imagery, a large random patch (LRP method was used. The proposed method could efficiently obtain acceptable accuracy (OA = 0.794, Kappa = 0.737 for the study area. In addition, the results show that the proposed method can effectively overcome the multi-scale effect that occurs in urban land-use classification at the irregular land-parcel level. The proposed method can help planners monitor dynamic urban land use and evaluate the impact of urban-planning schemes.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenwen Li
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Evolving Earth observation and change detection techniques enable the automatic identification of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC over a large extent from massive amounts of remote sensing data. It at the same time poses a major challenge in effective organization, representation and modeling of such information. This study proposes and implements an integrated computational framework to support the modeling, semantic and spatial reasoning of change information with regard to space, time and topology. We first proposed a conceptual model to formally represent the spatiotemporal variation of change data, which is essential knowledge to support various environmental and social studies, such as deforestation and urbanization studies. Then, a spatial ontology was created to encode these semantic spatiotemporal data in a machine-understandable format. Based on the knowledge defined in the ontology and related reasoning rules, a semantic platform was developed to support the semantic query and change trajectory reasoning of areas with LULCC. This semantic platform is innovative, as it integrates semantic and spatial reasoning into a coherent computational and operational software framework to support automated semantic analysis of time series data that can go beyond LULC datasets. In addition, this system scales well as the amount of data increases, validated by a number of experimental results. This work contributes significantly to both the geospatial Semantic Web and GIScience communities in terms of the establishment of the (web-based semantic platform for collaborative question answering and decision-making.
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Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre
2015-01-01
A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392
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Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander
2016-04-01
Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series
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Land Use Change Modelling in R
Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.
2014-12-01
Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.
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Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model
Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.
Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing
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A GIS-based integrative approach for land use optimization in a semi-arid watershed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.M. Tajbakhsh
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The proper use of natural resources can preserve these valuable assets. In line with the management of natural resources, land use optimization can be highly useful. The aim of the present study is to propose an appropriate integrative model for optimized allocation of lands for surface runoff and sediment load minimization and net income maximization in Bayg watershed, Iran. In this study, five categories of land uses, i.e. irrigated orchard, rangeland, irrigated farming, rainfed farming and almond orchard were spatially optimized to minimize surface runoff and sediment yield and to increase net income by integrating three approaches: weighted goal programming, analytic hierarchy process and multi-objective land allocation algorithm. To achieve the target levels in this work, the acreages of almond orchard and rainfed farming should be reduced by 100% and 37.32% respectively, and irrigated farming acreage should be increased by 138.53%. Through these alterations in the land use acreage, the sediment load will be reduced by 16.78% and net income will be improved by 72.52%. However, runoff volume will be increased by 0.22%. Results indicated that weighted goal programming satisfied 96% and 46% of the target levels of sediment load and net income respectively, but failed to reduce runoff volume. Therefore, it is necessary for managers to control runoff using the strategies related to runoff harvesting, especially on steep slopes. Generally, it can be concluded that a combination of the techniques weighted goal programming, analytic hierarchy process and multi-objective land allocation is highly capable to optimize land use and land covers based on the conflicting objectives.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
West, Tristram O; Le Page, Yannick; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M; Huang, Maoyi
2014-01-01
Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at sub-regional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land cover change at the continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5°). We revised existing methods to downscale global land cover change projections for the US to 0.05° resolution using MODIS land cover data as the initial proxy for land class distribution. Land cover change realizations generated here represent a reference scenario and two emissions mitigation pathways (MPs) generated by the global change assessment model (GCAM). Future gridded land cover realizations are constructed for each MODIS plant functional type (PFT) from 2005 to 2095, commensurate with the community land model PFT land classes, and archived for public use. The GCAM land cover realizations provide spatially explicit estimates of potential shifts in croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and forest lands. Downscaling of the MPs indicate a net replacement of grassland by cropland in the western US and by forest in the eastern US. An evaluation of the downscaling method indicates that it is able to reproduce recent changes in cropland and grassland distributions in respective areas in the US, suggesting it could provide relevant insights into the potential impacts of socio-economic and environmental drivers on future changes in land cover. (letters)
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Bryan Pijanowski; Deepak K. Ray; Anthony D. Kendall; Jonah M. Duckles; David W. Hyndman
2007-01-01
We couple two spatial-temporal models, a backcast land-use change model and a groundwater flow model, to develop what we call "land-use legacy maps." We quantify how a land-use legacy map, created from maps of past land use and groundwater travel times, differs from a current land-use map. We show how these map differences can affect land-use planning and watershed management decisions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Our approach demonstrates that land-use legacy maps provide a m...
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Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh
2018-05-08
Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Jiang
2016-09-01
Full Text Available China has experienced rapid urban expansion and agricultural land loss, and the land conversion has accelerated in central provinces since the mid-1990s. The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of socioeconomic and policy factors on the urban conversion of agricultural land in Henan Province, China. Using panel econometric models, we examine how socioeconomic and policy factors affect agricultural land conversion at the county level across three time periods, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010. The results show that both urban land rent and urban wages are essential factors that positively contribute to the conversion of agricultural land. It is also found that per capita GDP is correlated with more urban development and agricultural land loss. Consistent with expectations, agricultural financial support is negatively correlated with agricultural land conversion, suggesting a policy success. Finally, the decomposition analysis illustrates that urban wages are the most influential positive factor and agricultural financial support is the most influential negative factor affecting the urban conversion of agricultural land.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
RF Silvino
Full Text Available AbstractDespite being inside a protected area, Lake Sumidouro has been impacted by the anthropogenic occupation of the surrounding area since the 1970’s, compromising the ecological integrity of the lake and the sustainable use of natural resources. This study examined the current trophic classification of the lake and developed methods for improving it through an integrated analysis of morphometric and limnological parameters, land use and land occupation in the watershed, and eutrophication potential. Data for the limnological parameters, land use and land occupation, and morphometric characteristics of Lake Sumidouro were collected in the rainy and dry seasons of 2009 and 2010. Depending on the trophic classification system used, Lake Sumidouro is classified as oligotrophic to hypereutrophic. In our study, the highest concentration of nutrients occurred in the rainy season, indicating that high nutrient inputs played an important role during this period. Areas of anthropogenic occupation comprised approximately 62.9% of the total area of the watershed, with pasture and urban settlement as the main types of land use. The influent total phosphorus load was estimated to be 15,824.3 kg/year. To maintain mesotrophic conditions, this load must be reduced by 29.4%. By comparing the isolated use of trophic state indices, this study demonstrated that comparing the trophic state classification with morphometric analyses, land use and land occupation types in the watershed, and potential phosphorus load provided better information to guide management actions for restoration and conservation. Furthermore, this approach also allowed for evaluating the vulnerability of the environment to the eutrophication process.
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Aldababseh, A.; Temimi, M.; Maghelal, P.; Branch, O.; Wulfmeyer, V.
2017-12-01
The rapid economic development and high population growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have impacted utilization and management of agricultural land. The development of large-scale agriculture in unsuitable areas can severely impact groundwater resources in the UAE. More than 60% of UAE's water resources are being utilized by the agriculture, forestry, and urban greenery sectors. However, the contribution of the agricultural sector to the national GDP is negligible. Several programs have been introduced by the government aimed at achieving sustainable agriculture whilst preserving valuable water resources. Local subsistence farming has declined considerably during the past few years, due to low soil moisture content, sandy soil texture, lack of arable land, natural climatic disruptions, water shortages, and declined rainfall. The limited production of food and the continuing rise in the food prices on a global and local level are expected to increase low-income households' vulnerability to food insecurity. This research aims at developing a suitability index for the evaluation and prioritization of areas in the UAE for large-scale agriculture. The AHP-GIS integrated model developed in this study facilitates a step by step aggregation of a large number of datasets representing the most important criteria, and the generation of agricultural suitability and land capability maps. To provide the necessary criteria to run the model, a comprehensive geospatial database was built, including climate conditions, water potential, soil capabilities, topography, and land management. A hieratical structure is built as a decomposition structure that includes all criteria and sub-criteria used to define land suitability based on literature review and experts' opinions. Pairwise comparisons matrix are used to calculate criteria' weights. The GIS Model Builder function is used to integrate all spatial processes to model land suitability. In order to preserve some flexibility
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Gori, A.; Juan, A.; Blessing, R.; Brody, S.; Bedient, P. B.
2017-12-01
The FEMA 100 year floodplain serves as the benchmark for characterizing and managing flood risk in the United States. However, it is usually generated by using methodologies that are too simplistic to accurately depict the spatial reality of flood risk, and often fail to consider non-stationary variables such as changing land use conditions or precipitation patterns. The impacts of these limitations are evidenced in Houston, TX, where rainfall-induced flooding has resulted in billions of dollars in commercial and residential damage over the past two decades, much of which has occurred outside of the 100 year floodplain. Specifically, rapid urbanization has drastically increased overland runoff and resulting peak flows, thereby exposing new areas to flood risks. It is therefore crucial to examine the impacts of future land development on floodplain depth and extent in order to develop effective long-term stormwater management and mitigation strategies. This study presents a methodology for characterizing the impacts of future development on flood risk in an urbanizing watershed by integrating land use projection and high-resolution hydrologic / hydraulic modeling. Development projections are generated by identifying historical land use/ land cover change (LULCC) drivers, which are incorporated into an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict development conditions out to 2040. Hydrologic modeling of current and projected land cover conditions is achieved through a physics-based distributed hydrologic model. Finally, a coupled 1D/2D unsteady hydraulic model is used to simulate floodplain depths and extents, and to generate floodplain maps for all considered scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Cypress Creek watershed in northwest Houston, TX, a partially-developed watershed which is expected to rapidly urbanize for the next few decades. The study quantifies floodplain changes (i.e., extent and depth) and the number of impacted residences, and also
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Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models
Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr
2016-04-01
Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include
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Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex
2017-01-01
Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342
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Ran, L.; Cooter, E. J.; Gilliam, R. C.; Foroutan, H.; Kang, D.; Appel, W.; Wong, D. C.; Pleim, J. E.; Benson, V.; Pouliot, G.
2017-12-01
The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteorology, climate, and chemical transport. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) is a cropping model which has long been used in a range of applications related to soil erosion, crop productivity, climate change, and water quality around the world. We have integrated WRF/CMAQ with EPIC using the Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) to estimate daily soil N information with fertilization for CMAQ bi-directional ammonia flux modeling. Driven by the weather and N deposition from WRF/CMAQ, FEST-C EPIC simulations are conducted on 22 different agricultural production systems ranging from managed grass lands (e.g. hay and alfalfa) to crop lands (e.g. corn grain and soybean) with rainfed and irrigated information across any defined conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and grid resolution. In recent years, this integrated system has been enhanced and applied in many different air quality and ecosystem assessment projects related to land-water-atmosphere interactions. These enhancements have advanced this system to become a valuable tool for integrated assessments of air, land and water quality in light of social drivers and human and ecological outcomes. This presentation will focus on evaluating the sensitivity of precipitation and N deposition in the integrated system to MODIS vegetation input and lightning assimilation and their impacts on agricultural production and fertilization. We will describe the integrated modeling system and evaluate simulated precipitation and N deposition along with other weather information (e.g. temperature, humidity) for 2011 over the conterminous U.S. at 12 km grids from a coupled WRF/CMAQ with MODIS and lightning assimilation
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Setegn, Shimelis
2017-04-01
Sustainable development integrates economic development, social development, and environmental protection. Land and Water resources are under severe pressure from increasing populations, fast development, deforestation, intensification of agriculture and the degrading environment in many part of the world. The demand for adequate and safe supplies of water is becoming crucial especially in the overpopulated urban centers of the Caribbean islands. Moreover, population growth coupled with environmental degradation and possible adverse impacts of land use and climate change are major factors limiting freshwater resource availability. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model and analyze the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological processes in the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Physically based eco-hydrological model was developed and calibrated in the Rio Grande Manati and Wag water watershed. Spatial distribution of annual hydrological processes, water balance components for wet and dry years, and annual hydrological water balance of the watershed are discussed. The impact of land use and climate change are addressed in the watersheds. Appropriate nature based adaptation strategies were evaluated. The study will present a good understanding of advantages and disadvantages of nature-based solutions for adapting climate change, hydro-meteorological risks and other extreme hydrological events.
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Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep
2017-04-01
In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes
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Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.
2015-12-01
Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is
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Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2011-01-01
The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling
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Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Inge Aalders
2008-06-01
Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.
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Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez
2007-01-01
The island of Puerto Rico has both a high population density and a long history of ineffective land use planning. This study integrates geospatial technology and population census data to understand how people use and develop the lands. We define three new regions for Puerto Rico: Urban (16%), Densely Populated Rural (36%), and Sparsely Populated Rural (48%). Eleven...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Charles Gyamfi
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Intensified human activities over the past decades have culminated in the prevalence of dire environmental consequences of sediment yield resulting mainly from land use changes. Understanding the role that land use changes play in the dynamics of sediment yield would greatly enhance decision-making processes related to land use and water resources management. In this study, we investigated the impacts of land use and cover changes on sediment yield dynamics through an integrated approach of hydrologic modelling and principal component analysis (PCA. A three-phase land use scenario (2000, 2007 and 2013 employing the “fix-changing” method was used to simulate the sediment yield of the Olifants Basin. Contributions in the changes in individual land uses to sediment yield were assessed using the component and pattern matrixes of PCA. Our results indicate that sediment yield dynamics in the study area is significantly attributed to the changes in agriculture, urban and forested lands. Changes in agriculture and urban lands were directly proportional to sediment yield dynamics of the Olifants Basin. On the contrary, forested areas had a negative relationship with sediment yield indicating less sediment yield from these areas. The output of this research work provides a simplistic approach of evaluating the impacts of land use changes on sediment yield. The tools and methods used are relevant for policy directions on land and water resources planning and management.
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Judge, Jasmeet; England, Anthony W.; Metcalfe, John R.; McNichol, David; Goodison, Barry E.
2008-01-01
In this study, a soil vegetation and atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model was linked with a microwave emission model to simulate microwave signatures for different terrain during summertime, when the energy and moisture fluxes at the land surface are strong. The integrated model, land surface process/radiobrightness (LSP/R), was forced with weather and initial conditions observed during a field experiment. It simulated the fluxes and brightness temperatures for bare soil and brome grass in the Northern Great Plains. The model estimates of soil temperature and moisture profiles and terrain brightness temperatures were compared with the observed values. Overall, the LSP model provides realistic estimates of soil moisture and temperature profiles to be used with a microwave model. The maximum mean differences and standard deviations between the modeled and the observed temperatures (canopy and soil) were 2.6 K and 6.8 K, respectively; those for the volumetric soil moisture were 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Brightness temperatures at 19 GHz matched well with the observations for bare soil, when a rough surface model was incorporated indicating reduced dielectric sensitivity to soil moisture by surface roughness. The brightness temperatures of the brome grass matched well with the observations indicating that a simple emission model was sufficient to simulate accurate brightness temperatures for grass typical of that region and surface roughness was not a significant issue for grass-covered soil at 19 GHz. Such integrated SVAT-microwave models allow for direct assimilation of microwave observations and can also be used to understand sensitivity of microwave signatures to changes in weather forcings and soil conditions for different terrain types.
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Hydrological land surface modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois
Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...
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EVALUATION OF LAND USE/LAND COVER DATASETS FOR URBAN WATERSHED MODELING
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
S.J. BURIAN; M.J. BROWN; T.N. MCPHERSON
2001-01-01
Land use/land cover (LULC) data are a vital component for nonpoint source pollution modeling. Most watershed hydrology and pollutant loading models use, in some capacity, LULC information to generate runoff and pollutant loading estimates. Simple equation methods predict runoff and pollutant loads using runoff coefficients or pollutant export coefficients that are often correlated to LULC type. Complex models use input variables and parameters to represent watershed characteristics and pollutant buildup and washoff rates as a function of LULC type. Whether using simple or complex models an accurate LULC dataset with an appropriate spatial resolution and level of detail is paramount for reliable predictions. The study presented in this paper compared and evaluated several LULC dataset sources for application in urban environmental modeling. The commonly used USGS LULC datasets have coarser spatial resolution and lower levels of classification than other LULC datasets. In addition, the USGS datasets do not accurately represent the land use in areas that have undergone significant land use change during the past two decades. We performed a watershed modeling analysis of three urban catchments in Los Angeles, California, USA to investigate the relative difference in average annual runoff volumes and total suspended solids (TSS) loads when using the USGS LULC dataset versus using a more detailed and current LULC dataset. When the two LULC datasets were aggregated to the same land use categories, the relative differences in predicted average annual runoff volumes and TSS loads from the three catchments were 8 to 14% and 13 to 40%, respectively. The relative differences did not have a predictable relationship with catchment size
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Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.
2017-12-01
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.
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Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthew Geary
Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.
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Modeling and simulating industrial land-use evolution in Shanghai, China
Qiu, Rongxu; Xu, Wei; Zhang, John; Staenz, Karl
2018-01-01
This study proposes a cellular automata-based Industrial and Residential Land Use Competition Model to simulate the dynamic spatial transformation of industrial land use in Shanghai, China. In the proposed model, land development activities in a city are delineated as competitions among different land-use types. The Hedonic Land Pricing Model is adopted to implement the competition framework. To improve simulation results, the Land Price Agglomeration Model was devised to simulate and adjust classic land price theory. A new evolutionary algorithm-based parameter estimation method was devised in place of traditional methods. Simulation results show that the proposed model closely resembles actual land transformation patterns and the model can not only simulate land development, but also redevelopment processes in metropolitan areas.
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Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Reichle, Rolf H.
2009-01-01
The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by
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Singh, R. B.; Kumar, Dilip
2012-06-01
In India, land resources have reached a critical stage due to the rapidly growing population. This challenge requires an integrated approach toward harnessing land resources, while taking into account the vulnerable environmental conditions. Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) based technologies may be applied to an area in order to generate a sustainable development plan that is optimally suited to the terrain and to the productive potential of the local resources. The present study area is a part of the middle Ganga plain, known as Son-Karamnasa interfluve, in India. Alternative land use systems and the integration of livestock enterprises with the agricultural system have been suggested for land resources management. The objective of this paper is to prepare a land resource development plan in order to increase the productivity of land for sustainable development. The present study will contribute necessary input for policy makers to improve the socio-economic and environmental conditions of the region.
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Quantifying and Analysing Neighbourhood Characteristics Supporting Urban Land-Use Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Henning Sten
2009-01-01
Land-use modelling and spatial scenarios have gained increased attention as a means to meet the challenge of reducing uncertainty in the spatial planning and decision-making. Several organisations have developed software for land-use modelling. Many of the recent modelling efforts incorporate...... cellular automata (CA) to accomplish spatially explicit land-use change modelling. Spatial interaction between neighbour land-uses is an important component in urban cellular automata. Nevertheless, this component is calibrated through trial-and-error estimation. The aim of the current research project has...... been to quantify and analyse land-use neighbourhood characteristics and impart useful information for cell based land-use modelling. The results of our research is a major step forward, because we have estimated rules for neighbourhood interaction from really observed land-use changes at a yearly basis...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Babak Farjad
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This paper describes the main functionalities of an integrated framework to model the interactions between land use, climate, and hydrology along with stakeholders’ negotiation. Its novelty lies in the combination of individual-based and spatially distributed models within the Socio-Hydrology paradigm to capture the complexity and uncertainty inherent to these systems. It encompasses a land-use/land-cover cellular automata model, an agent-based model used for automated stakeholders’ negotiation, and the hydrological MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, which are linked and can be accessed through a web-based interface. It enables users to run simulations to explore a wide range of scenarios related to land development and water resource management while considering the reciprocal influence of human and natural systems. This framework was developed with the involvement of key stakeholders from the initial design stage to the final demonstration and validation.
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Integrating ecosystem-service tradeoffs into land-use decisions.
Goldstein, Joshua H; Caldarone, Giorgio; Duarte, Thomas Kaeo; Ennaanay, Driss; Hannahs, Neil; Mendoza, Guillermo; Polasky, Stephen; Wolny, Stacie; Daily, Gretchen C
2012-05-08
Recent high-profile efforts have called for integrating ecosystem-service values into important societal decisions, but there are few demonstrations of this approach in practice. We quantified ecosystem-service values to help the largest private landowner in Hawaii, Kamehameha Schools, design a land-use development plan that balances multiple private and public values on its North Shore land holdings (Island of O'ahu) of ∼10,600 ha. We used the InVEST software tool to evaluate the environmental and financial implications of seven planning scenarios encompassing contrasting land-use combinations including biofuel feedstocks, food crops, forestry, livestock, and residential development. All scenarios had positive financial return relative to the status quo of negative return. However, tradeoffs existed between carbon storage and water quality as well as between environmental improvement and financial return. Based on this analysis and community input, Kamehameha Schools is implementing a plan to support diversified agriculture and forestry. This plan generates a positive financial return ($10.9 million) and improved carbon storage (0.5% increase relative to status quo) with negative relative effects on water quality (15.4% increase in potential nitrogen export relative to status quo). The effects on water quality could be mitigated partially (reduced to a 4.9% increase in potential nitrogen export) by establishing vegetation buffers on agricultural fields. This plan contributes to policy goals for climate change mitigation, food security, and diversifying rural economic opportunities. More broadly, our approach illustrates how information can help guide local land-use decisions that involve tradeoffs between private and public interests.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. M. Bernales
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The threat of the ailments related to urbanization like heat stress is very prevalent. There are a lot of things that can be done to lessen the effect of urbanization to the surface temperature of the area like using green roofs or planting trees in the area. So land use really matters in both increasing and decreasing surface temperature. It is known that there is a relationship between land use land cover (LULC and land surface temperature (LST. Quantifying this relationship in terms of a mathematical model is very important so as to provide a way to predict LST based on the LULC alone. This study aims to examine the relationship between LST and LULC as well as to create a model that can predict LST using class-level spatial metrics from LULC. LST was derived from a Landsat 8 image and LULC classification was derived from LiDAR and Orthophoto datasets. Class-level spatial metrics were created in FRAGSTATS with the LULC and LST as inputs and these metrics were analysed using a statistical framework. Multi linear regression was done to create models that would predict LST for each class and it was found that the spatial metric “Effective mesh size” was a top predictor for LST in 6 out of 7 classes. The model created can still be refined by adding a temporal aspect by analysing the LST of another farming period (for rural areas and looking for common predictors between LSTs of these two different farming periods.
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Bouchoms, Samuel; Van Oost, Kristof; Vanacker, Veerle
2015-04-01
Soil-landscape modelling has received growing attention as it allows us to evaluate the interaction between earth surface and soil bio-physical processes. At the landscape scale, human-induced land use change has altered the balance between soil erosion and production, and largely modified sediment fluxes. Intensification in soil redistribution rates affects the interaction between soil chemical, physical and biological processes at the landscape scale. Here, we evaluate the SPEROS-LT model, a spatially explicit 3D model combining a dynamic representation of land use, soil erosion and deposition and the soil carbon cycle. We assess the impact of millennial-scale human-induced land use change on sediment fluxes and carbon dynamics in the Dijle catchement (central Belgium). The watershed has undergone a 3000 years continuous human-induced alteration of the vegetation covers for agricultural characterized by Our study is based on land use reconstructions for the last 3000 years, including massive deforestation for agriculture in Roman Times and the Middle Ages followed by urbanization in the last 150 years. Land use reconstructions rely on simple land use allocation rules based on slope gradients. SPEROS-LT is parametrized for erosion rates against available figures in the literature by changing the transport capacity and the transfer coefficient which defines the amount of flux transferred between different land uses. Carbon content profiles at steady state (i.e. without influence of erosion or deposition) are calibrated for each land use and for the first upper meter of soil by comparing modeled profiles to an averaged observed profiles in stable areas of the pedologic region. We present a model sensitivity analysis and a full validation of the predicted soil carbon storage (horizontally, i.e. in space, and vertically, i.e. with depth) using a large database of observational data. The results indicate (i) a good agreement of the erosion rates. Speros LT modeled
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Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Xin; MA Xiaodong
2017-01-01
Land use structure optimization (LUSO) is an important issue for land use planning.In order for land use planning to have reasonable flexibility,uncertain optimization should be applied for LUSO.In this paper,the researcher first expounded the uncertainties of LUSO.Based on this,an interval programming model was developed,of which interval variables were to hold land use uncertainties.To solve the model,a heuristics based on Genetic Algorithm was designed according to Pareto Optimum principle with a confidence interval under given significance level to represent LUSO result.Proposed method was applied to a real case of Yangzhou,an eastern city in China.The following conclusions were reached.1) Different forms of uncertainties ranged from certainty to indeterminacy lay in the five steps of LUSO,indicating necessary need of comprehensive approach to quantify them.2) With regards to trade-offs of conflicted objectives and preferences to uncertainties,our proposed model displayed good ability of making planning decision process transparent,therefore providing an effective tool for flexible land use planning compiling.3) Under uncertain conditions,land use planning effectiveness can be primarily enhanced by flexible management with reserved space to percept and hold uncertainties in advance.
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Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.
2017-12-01
In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).
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Closing the loop: integrating human impacts on water resources to advanced land surface models
Zaitchik, B. F.; Nie, W.; Rodell, M.; Kumar, S.; Li, B.
2016-12-01
Advanced Land Surface Models (LSMs), including those used in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), offer a physically consistent and spatially and temporally complete analysis of the distributed water balance. These models are constrained both by physically-based process representation and by observations ingested as meteorological forcing or as data assimilation updates. As such, they have become important tools for hydrological monitoring and long-term climate analysis. The representation of water management, however, is extremely limited in these models. Recent advances have brought prognostic irrigation routines into models used in NLDAS, while assimilation of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived estimates of terrestrial water storage anomaly has made it possible to nudge models towards observed states in water storage below the root zone. But with few exceptions these LSMs do not account for the source of irrigation water, leading to a disconnect between the simulated water balance and the observed human impact on water resources. This inconsistency is unacceptable for long-term studies of climate change and human impact on water resources in North America. Here we define the modeling challenge, review instances of models that have begun to account for water withdrawals (e.g., CLM), and present ongoing efforts to improve representation of human impacts on water storage across models through integration of irrigation routines, water withdrawal information, and GRACE Data Assimilation in NLDAS LSMs.
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Lu, Shasha; Zhou, Min; Guan, Xingliang; Tao, Lizao
2015-03-01
A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower
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Pairing FLUXNET sites to validate model representations of land-use/land-cover change
Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Guo, Zhichang; Schultz, Natalie M.
2018-01-01
Land surface energy and water fluxes play an important role in land-atmosphere interactions, especially for the climatic feedback effects driven by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC). These have long been documented in model-based studies, but the performance of land surface models in representing LULCC-induced responses has not been investigated well. In this study, measurements from proximate paired (open versus forest) flux tower sites are used to represent observed deforestation-induced changes in surface fluxes, which are compared with simulations from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land model. Point-scale simulations suggest the CLM can represent the observed diurnal and seasonal changes in net radiation (Rnet) and ground heat flux (G), but difficulties remain in the energy partitioning between latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat flux. The CLM does not capture the observed decreased daytime LE, and overestimates the increased H during summer. These deficiencies are mainly associated with models' greater biases over forest land-cover types and the parameterization of soil evaporation. Global gridded simulations with the CLM show uncertainties in the estimation of LE and H at the grid level for regional and global simulations. Noah-MP exhibits a similar ability to simulate the surface flux changes, but with larger biases in H, G, and Rnet change during late winter and early spring, which are related to a deficiency in estimating albedo. Differences in meteorological conditions between paired sites is not a factor in these results. Attention needs to be devoted to improving the representation of surface heat flux processes in land models to increase confidence in LULCC simulations.
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Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change
Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.
2011-12-01
We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.
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Land use allocation model considering climate change impact
Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.
2017-12-01
In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"
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Hacker, Kathryn P; Seto, Karen C; Costa, Federico; Corburn, Jason; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A
2013-10-20
The expansion of urban slums is a key challenge for public and social policy in the 21st century. The heterogeneous and dynamic nature of slum communities limits the use of rigid slum definitions. A systematic and flexible approach to characterize, delineate and model urban slum structure at an operational resolution is essential to plan, deploy, and monitor interventions at the local and national level. We modeled the multi-dimensional structure of urban slums in the city of Salvador, a city of 3 million inhabitants in Brazil, by integrating census-derived socioeconomic variables and remotely-sensed land cover variables. We assessed the correlation between the two sets of variables using canonical correlation analysis, identified land cover proxies for the socioeconomic variables, and produced an integrated map of deprivation in Salvador at 30 m × 30 m resolution. The canonical analysis identified three significant ordination axes that described the structure of Salvador census tracts according to land cover and socioeconomic features. The first canonical axis captured a gradient from crowded, low-income communities with corrugated roof housing to higher-income communities. The second canonical axis discriminated among socioeconomic variables characterizing the most marginalized census tracts, those without access to sanitation or piped water. The third canonical axis accounted for the least amount of variation, but discriminated between high-income areas with white-painted or tiled roofs from lower-income areas. Our approach captures the socioeconomic and land cover heterogeneity within and between slum settlements and identifies the most marginalized communities in a large, complex urban setting. These findings indicate that changes in the canonical scores for slum areas can be used to track their evolution and to monitor the impact of development programs such as slum upgrading.
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Messina, Joseph Paul
The Ecuadorian Amazon, lying in the headwaters of the Napo and Aguarico River valleys, is experiencing rapid change in LandUse and LandCover (LULC) conditions and regional landscape diversity uniquely tied to spontaneous agricultural colonization and oil exploration. Beginning in the early 1970s, spontaneous colonization occurred on squattered lands located adjacent to oil company roads and in government development sectors composed of multiple 50 ha land parcels organized into "piano key" shaped family farms or fincas. Since fincas are managed at the household level as spatially discrete, temporally independent units, land conversion at the finca-level is recognized as the chief proximate cause of deforestation within the region. Focusing on the spatial and temporal dynamics of deforestation, agricultural extensification, and plant succession at the finca-level, and urbanization at the community-level, cell-based morphogenetic models of LandUse and LandCover Change (LULCC) were developed as the foundation for predictive models of regional LULCC dynamics and landscape diversity. Two cellular automata models were developed and used to integrate biophysical, geographical, and social variables to characterize temporally dynamic landscapes. The human, geographical, and biophysical dimensions of land use and land cover change were examined, specifically deforestation, anthropogenic extensification, and reforestation. Remotely-sensed data ranging temporally from the 1970s through 1999, combined with thematic map coverages of biophysical gradients and geographical accessibility, were linked to household and community survey data collected in 1990 and 1999. Image processing techniques for LULC characterization and spatial analyses of landscape structure were used to assess the rate and nature of LULCC throughout the time-series. In addition, LULC and LULCC associated with secondary plant succession and agricultural extensification were assessed and simulated for specific
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Empirically derived neighbourhood rules for urban land-use modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Henning Sten
2012-01-01
Land-use modelling and spatial scenarios have gained attention as a means to meet the challenge of reducing uncertainty in spatial planning and decision making. Many of the recent modelling efforts incorporate cellular automata to accomplish spatially explicit land-use-change modelling. Spatial...
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Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.
2016-12-01
Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.
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Souty, F.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.; Dorin, B.; Ciais, P.; Crassous, R.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.
2012-10-01
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Souty
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL. The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.
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Fuzzy optimization model for land use change
L. Jahanshahloo; E. Haghi
2014-01-01
There are some important questions in Land use change literature, for instance How much land to allocate to each of a number of land use type in order to maximization of (household or individual) rent -paying ability, minimization of environmental impacts or maximization of population income. In this paper, we want to investigate them and propose mathematical models to find an answer for these questions. Since Most of the parameters in this process are linguistics and fuzzy logic is a powerfu...
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Zia, Asim; Bomblies, Arne; Schroth, Andrew W.; Koliba, Christopher; Isles, Peter D. F.; Tsai, Yushiou; Mohammed, Ibrahim N.; Bucini, Gabriela; Clemins, Patrick J.; Turnbull, Scott; Rodgers, Morgan; Hamed, Ahmed; Beckage, Brian; Winter, Jonathan; Adair, Carol; Galford, Gillian L.; Rizzo, Donna; Van Houten, Judith
2016-11-01
Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity through 2040 in transnational Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Bay. Temperature and precipitation inputs were statistically downscaled from four global circulation models (GCMs) for three Representative Concentration Pathways. An agent-based model was used to generate four LULCC scenarios. Combined climate and LULCC scenarios drove a distributed hydrological model to estimate river discharge and nutrient input to the lake. Lake nutrient dynamics were simulated with a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. We find accelerated GCC could drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality, but the nature and severity of this impact varies dramatically by GCM and GCC scenario.
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A Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata Model and Its Application
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jun Yang
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Cellular automaton (CA is an important method in land use and cover change studies, however, the majority of research focuses on the discovery of macroscopic factors affecting LUCC, which results in ignoring the local effects within the neighborhoods. This paper introduces a Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata (LLUC-CA model, based on local land use competition, land suitability evaluation, demand analysis of the different land use types, and multi-target land use competition allocation algorithm to simulate land use change at a micro level. The model is applied to simulate land use changes at Jinshitan National Tourist Holiday Resort from 1988 to 2012. The results show that the simulation accuracies were 64.46%, 77.21%, 85.30% and 99.14% for the agricultural land, construction land, forestland and water, respectively. In addition, comparing the simulation results of the LLUC-CA and CA-Markov model with the real land use data, their overall spatial accuracies were found to be 88.74% and 86.82%, respectively. In conclusion, the results from this study indicated that the model was an acceptable method for the simulation of large-scale land use changes, and the approach used here is applicable to analyzing the land use change driven forces and assist in decision-making.
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Integrated post mining landscape for sustainable land use: A case study in South Sumatera, Indonesia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdul Kodir
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Damages to coal mined land must be restored through reclamation efforts to provide optimum benefits. In addition to environmental improvements through conservation and protection, coal mined land also has the potential for economic development and the ability to provide social benefits to the community. This study aimed to (1 formulate a spatial plan for coal mined land in order for it to become an integrated and multifunctional landscape by integrating protected areas, conservation areas and cultivated areas that contains a variety of land uses to support sustainable development of the coal mine of PT Bukit Asam, Tanjung Enim, South Sumatera province; and (2 calculate the economic potential of the coal mined land. The methods used for data analysis were the Geographical Information System (GIS, a land suitability evaluation and a feasibility study (Net Present Value, Internal Rate Return and Benefit/Cost Ratio. The results found that the integrated spatial planning of land that had been used as a coal mine that considered sustainability could be implemented. In addition, a variety of businesses in the area of cultivation, including: plantation forests, cultivation of cajuput crops, aquaculture, and cattle farming should be developed. The potential profitable, pre-tax income until the closing of the mine in 2043 amounted to USD 91,295,530 (1 USD = Rp 13,329. If there is a source of a new economy after mining ends, the social conditions and environmental sustainability can be maintained.
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Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.
2009-01-01
This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model
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Impact of land cover and land use change on runoff characteristics.
Sajikumar, N; Remya, R S
2015-09-15
Change in Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) influences the runoff characteristics of a drainage basin to a large extent, which in turn, affects the surface and groundwater availability of the area, and hence leads to further change in LCLU. This forms a vicious circle. Hence it becomes essential to assess the effect of change in LCLU on the runoff characteristics of a region in general and of small watershed levels (sub-basin levels) in particular. Such an analysis can effectively be carried out by using watershed simulation models with integrated GIS frame work. SWAT (Soil and Water Analysis Tool) model, being one of the versatile watershed simulation models, is found to be suitable for this purpose as many GIS integration modules are available for this model (e.g. ArcSWAT, MWSWAT). Watershed simulation using SWAT requires the land use and land cover data, soil data and many other features. With the availability of repository of satellite imageries, both from Indian and foreign sources, it becomes possible to use the concurrent local land use and land cover data, thereby enabling more accurate modelling of small watersheds. Such availability will also enable us to assess the effect of LCLU on runoff characteristics and their reverse impact. The current study assesses the effect of land use and land cover on the runoff characteristics of two watersheds in Kerala, India. It also assesses how the change in land use and land cover in the last few decades affected the runoff characteristics of these watersheds. It is seen that the reduction in the forest area amounts to 60% and 32% in the analysed watersheds. However, the changes in the surface runoff for these watersheds are not comparable with the changes in the forest area but are within 20%. Similarly the maximum (peak) value of runoff has increased by an amount of 15% only. The lesser (aforementioned) effect than expected might be due to the fact that forest has been converted to agricultural purpose with major
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Hydro-economic modeling of integrated solutions for the water-energy-land nexus in Africa
Parkinson, S.; Kahil, M.; Wada, Y.; Krey, V.; Byers, E.; Johnson, N. A.; Burek, P.; Satoh, Y.; Willaarts, B.; Langan, S.; Riahi, K.
2017-12-01
This study focused on the development of the Extended Continental-scale Hydro-economic Optimization model (ECHO) and its application to the analysis of long-term water, energy and land use pathways for Africa. The framework is important because it integrates multi-decadal decisions surrounding investments into new water infrastructure, electric power generation and irrigation technologies. The improved linkages in ECHO reveal synergies between water allocation strategies across sectors and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from electricity supply. The African case study features a reduced-form transboundary river network and associated environmental flow constraints covering surface and groundwater withdrawals. Interactions between local water constraints and the continental-scale economy are captured in the model through the combination of regional electricity markets. Spatially-explicit analysis of land availability is used to restrict future reservoir expansion. The analysis demonstrates the massive investments required to ensure rapidly expanding water, energy and food demands in Africa aligned with human development objectives are met in a sustainable way. Modeled constraints on environmental flows in line with presumptive ecological guidelines trigger diffusion of energy-intensive water supply technologies in water-stressed regions, with implications for the cost and speed of the electricity sector decarbonization required to achieve climate targets.
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Generation of multi annual land use and crop rotation data for regional agro-ecosystem modeling
Waldhoff, G.; Lussem, U.; Sulis, M.; Bareth, G.
2017-12-01
For agro-ecosystem modeling on a regional scale with systems like the Community Land Model (CLM), detailed crop type and crop rotation information on the parcel-level is of key importance. Only with this, accurate assessments of the fluxes associated with the succession of crops and their management are possible. However, sophisticated agro-ecosystem modeling for large regions is only feasible at grid resolutions, which are much coarser than the spatial resolution of modern land use maps (usually ca. 30 m). As a result, much of the original information content of the maps has to be dismissed during resampling. Here we present our mapping approach for the Rur catchment (located in the west of Germany), which was developed to address these demands and issues. We integrated remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods to classify multi temporal images of (e.g.) Landsat, RapidEye and Sentinel-2 to generate annual crop maps for the years 2008-2017 at 15 m spatial resolution (accuracy always ca. 90 %). A key aspect of our method is the consideration of crop phenology for the data selection and the analysis. In a GIS, the annul crop maps were integrated to a crop sequence dataset from which the major crop rotations were derived (based on the 10-years). To retain the multi annual crop succession and crop area information at coarser grid resolutions, cell-based land use fractions, including other land use classes were calculated for each year and for various target cell sizes (1-32 arc seconds). The resulting datasets contain the contribution (in percent) of every land use class to each cell. Our results show that parcels with the major crop types can be differentiated with a high accuracy and on an annual basis. The analysis of the crop sequence data revealed a very large number of different crop rotations, but only relatively few crop rotations cover larger areas. This strong diversity emphasizes the importance of information on crop rotations to reduce
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Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project
Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.
2012-12-01
As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems
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Labiosa, William B.; Bernknopf, Richard; Hearn, Paul; Hogan, Dianna; Strong, David; Pearlstine, Leonard; Mathie, Amy M.; Wein, Anne M.; Gillen, Kevin; Wachter, Susan
2009-01-01
The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although
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Delman, E. M.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.
2013-12-01
Growing concern over the impact of climate change on global freshwater resources has spurred a demand for practical, basin-specific adaptation tools. The potential for water stress is particularly inflated in the glaciated watersheds of the developing world; widespread and rapid glacial retreat has forced regional resource managers to reconcile the reality of a diminishing supply with an overall increase in demand, while accounting for the underlying geopolitical and cultural context. An integrated approach, such as the development of a Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) model that examines relationships among climate, land-use, and the energy and water sectors, can be used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on basin sustainability and vulnerability. This study will first constrain the hydrologic budget in the Río Santa Watershed of Peru using satellite imagery, historical and contemporary stream discharge data, hydrologic modeling, climatic data analysis, and isotopic and chemical tracers. Ultimately, glacier retreat will be examined at the watershed scale and be used as an input in the CLEW model framework to assess hydrologic budget scenarios and the subsequent impact on regional economic and environmental sustainability.
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Land degradation and integrated watershed management in India
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suraj Bhan
2013-06-01
Government of India has launched various centre-sector, state-sector and foreign aided schemes for prevention of land degradation, reclamation of special problem areas for ensuring productivity of the land, preservation of land resources and improvement of ecology and environment. These schemes are being implemented on watershed basis in rainfed areas. Soil conservation measures and reclamation of degraded lands are decided considering the land capability and land uses. The efforts made so far resulted in enhancement of agricultural production and productivity of lands, increase in employment generation, improving the environment of the areas and socio-economic upgradation of the people. Integrated watershed management approach has been adopted as a key national strategy for sustainable development of rural areas. This has been proved by conducting monitoring and impact evaluation studies of the integrated watershed projects by external agencies.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Quilbé
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.
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Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Judd, Chaeli; Thom, Ron; Woodruff, Dana; Ellis, Jean T.; Quattrochi, Dale; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt
2012-01-01
Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for
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Ambarwulan, W.; Widiatmaka; Nahib, I.
2018-05-01
Land utilization in Indonesia is regulated in an official spatial land use planning (OSLUP), stipulated by government regulations. However in fact, land utilizations are often develops inconsistent with regulations. OSLUP itself is also not usually compatible with sustainable land utilizations. This study aims to evaluate current land utilizations and OSLUP in Indramayu Regency, West Java. The methodology used is the integrated analysis using land use and land cover (LU/LC) data, land capability data and spatial pattern in OSLUP. Actual LU/LC are interpreted using SPOT-6 imagery of 2014. The spatial data of land capabilities are derived from land capability classification using field data and laboratory analysis. The confrontation between these spatial data is interpreted in terms of future direction for sustainable land use planning. The results shows that Indramayu regency consists of 8 types of LU/LC. Land capability in research area range from class II to VIII. Only a small portion of the land in Indramayu has been used in accordance with land capability, but most of the land is used exceeding its land capability.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arafan Traore
2018-04-01
Full Text Available In this study, land-cover change in the capital Conakry of Guinea was simulated using the integrated Cellular Automata and Markov model (CA-Markov in the Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS. Historical land-cover change information was derived from 1986, 2000 and 2016 Landsat data. Using the land-cover change maps of 1986 and 2000, the land-cover change map for 2016 was simulated based on the Markov model in IDRISSI software (Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA. The simulated result was compared with the 2016 land-cover map for validation using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC. The ROC result showed a very strong agreement between the two maps. From this result, the land-cover change map for 2025 was simulated using CA-Markov model. The result has indicated that the proportion of the urban area was 49% in 2016, and it is expected to increase to 52% by 2025, while vegetation will decrease from 35% in 2016 to 32% in 2025. This study suggests that the rapid land-cover change has been led by both rapid population growth and extreme poverty in rural areas, which will result in migration into Conakry. The results of this study will provide bases for assessing the sustainability and the management of the urban area and for taking actions to mitigate the degradation of the urban environment.
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Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, B.; Hansen, H.S.
2013-01-01
project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern......The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research...... Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure...
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Research on the decision-making model of land-use spatial optimization
He, Jianhua; Yu, Yan; Liu, Yanfang; Liang, Fei; Cai, Yuqiu
2009-10-01
Using the optimization result of landscape pattern and land use structure optimization as constraints of CA simulation results, a decision-making model of land use spatial optimization is established coupled the landscape pattern model with cellular automata to realize the land use quantitative and spatial optimization simultaneously. And Huangpi district is taken as a case study to verify the rationality of the model.
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Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers
Sohl, Terry L.; Claggett, Peter
2013-01-01
The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.
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Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources
Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.
2007-12-01
Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land
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Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu
2015-04-01
Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change
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Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.
2017-12-01
Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model
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Introducing land-cover and land-use changes in a climate scenario of the 21. century
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Voldoire, A.
2005-03-01
The main objective of this work has been to run a climate simulation of the 21. century that includes not only greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activity but also land-use and land-cover changes. To achieve this goal, the integrated impact model IMAGE2.2 (developed at RIVM, The Netherlands) was used, which simulates the evolution of greenhouse gases concentrations as well as land-cover changes. This model has been coupled to the general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA provided by the CNRM. Before coupling the models, sensitivity experiments with each model have been performed to test their respective sensitivity to the forcing of the other. Ultimately, a simulation with the two models coupled together has shown that interactions between climate and vegetation are not of primary importance for century scale studies. (author)
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Ajami, Hoori
2014-03-01
Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface-subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater, and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km2 subcatchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water-groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin
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Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.
1999-01-01
This paper presents an overview of Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use ANalysis: Temperature and Air-quality) which is an investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area since the early 1970's has impacted the region's climate and air quality. The primary objectives for this research effort are: (1) To investigate and model the relationships between land cover change in the Atlanta metropolitan, and the development of the urban heat island phenomenon through time; (2) To investigate and model the temporal relationships between Atlanta urban growth and land cover change on air quality; and (3) To model the overall effects of urban development on surface energy budget characteristics across the Atlanta urban landscape through time. Our key goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization in the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the prospect that the results from this research can be applied by urban planners, environmental managers and other decision-makers, for determining how urbanization has impacted the climate and overall environment of the Atlanta area. Multiscaled remote sensing data, particularly high resolution thermal infrared data, are integral to this study for the analysis of thermal energy fluxes across the Atlanta urban landscape.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Deng Ding
2015-11-01
Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.
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Integrating Geospatial Technologies to Examine Urban Land Use Change: A Design Partnership
Bodzin, Alec M.; Cirucci, Lori
2009-01-01
This article describes a design partnership that investigated how to integrate Google Earth, remotely sensed satellite and aerial imagery, with other instructional resources to investigate ground cover and land use in diverse middle school classrooms. Data analysis from the implementation study revealed that students acquired skills for…
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2009-11-01
The interaction between land use and transportation has long been the central issue in urban and regional planning. Models of such : interactions provide vital information to support many public policy decisions, such as land supply, infrastructure p...
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Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction
Santanello, Joseph A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Zhou, Shuija
2012-01-01
Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.
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Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction
Santanello, J. A.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Harrison, K. W.; Zhou, S.
2012-12-01
Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.
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An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lewis, David J.
2010-01-01
This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)
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Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto
2016-05-01
The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc
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Saran, S.; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.
2009-01-01
Land use/land cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division
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Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.; Stisen, Simon
2014-01-01
is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km
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Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways
Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.
2017-12-01
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sean Butler
2014-07-01
Full Text Available The contamination of shellfish harvesting areas by fecal bacteria in the Annapolis Basin of Nova Scotia, Canada, is a recurring problem which has consequences for industry, government, and local communities. This study contributes to the development of an integrated water quality forecasting system to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of industry management. The proposed integrated forecasting framework is composed of a database containing contamination sources, hydrodynamics of the Annapolis Basin, Escherichia coli (E. coli loadings and watershed hydrology scenarios, coupled with environmental conditions of the region (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and ultraviolet light. For integration into this framework, this study presents a viable methodology for assessing the contribution of fecal bacteria originating from a watershed. The proposed methodology investigated the application of high resolution remote sensing, coupled with the commercially available product, MIKE 11, to monitor watershed land use and its impact on water quality. Remote sensing proved to be an extremely useful tool in the identification of sources of fecal bacteria contamination, as well as the detection of land use change over time. Validation of the MIKE 11 model produced very good agreement (R2 = 0.88, E = 0.85 between predicted and observed river flows, while model calibration of E. coli concentrations showed fair agreement (R2 = 0.51 and E = 0.38 between predicted and observed values. A proper evaluation of the MIKE 11 model was constrained due to limited water sampling. However, the model was very effective in predicting times of high contamination for use in the integrated forecasting framework, especially during substantial precipitation events.
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Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengieter, Ronald; Acevedo, William
2012-01-01
Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.
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Performance comparison of land change modeling techniques for land use projection of arid watersheds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.M. Tajbakhsh
2018-07-01
Full Text Available The change of land use/land cover has been known as an imperative force in environmental alteration, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. This research was mainly aimed to assess the validity of two major types of land change modeling techniques via a three dimensional approach in Birjand urban watershed located in an arid climatic region of Iran. Thus, a Markovian approach based on two suitability and transition potential mappers, i.e. fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron was used to simulate land use map. Validation metrics, quantity disagreement, allocation disagreement and figure of merit in a three-dimensional space were used to perform model validation. Utilizing the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy processsimulation of total landscape in the target point 2015, quantity error, the figure of merit and allocation error were 2%, 18.5% and 8%, respectively. However, Artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron simulation led to a marginal improvement in figure of merit, i.e. 3.25%.
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Theories and Diagnostic Methods of Land Use Conflicts
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yongfang; YANG; Lianqi; ZHU
2013-01-01
With social and economic development, the land resources are becoming increasingly scarce, and the land use conflicts are getting more frequent, deeper, more diversified and more severe. Besides, the factors that induce land use conflicts are more and more complicated. Therefore, the key to solve many difficult problems in regional sustainable land use lies in the research of land use conflicts, scientific evaluation of the intensity of regional land use conflicts, and the further reveal of external forms as well as intrinsic mechanisms of land use conflicts. Based on the review of both domestic and foreign literatures, this paper has completed the theoretical framework as well as the contents of land use conflicts research, established the diagnostic models and methods of land use conflicts intensity and proposed the key research areas of future studies. The purpose is to promote the evolution of spatial structure of China’s land resources to the positive direction and achieve integrated and coordinated management of land use through improving spatial allocation efficiency of land factors and buffering the pressure on land resources.
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Implementing land use change models in the developing world
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Le Roux, Alize
2013-07-01
Full Text Available recently adapted land use change models (Dyna-Clue and UrbanSIM) that have been successfully adapted to simulate future land use change policies in the various metro's across South-Africa. The presentation will focus on how these technologies together...
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A watershed model to integrate EO data
Jauch, Eduardo; Chambel-Leitao, Pedro; Carina, Almeida; Brito, David; Cherif, Ines; Alexandridis, Thomas; Neves, Ramiro
2013-04-01
MOHID LAND is a open source watershed model developed by MARETEC and is part of the MOHID Framework. It integrates four mediums (or compartments): porous media, surface, rivers and atmosphere. The movement of water between these mediums are based on mass and momentum balance equations. The atmosphere medium is not explicity simulated. Instead, it's used as boundary condition to the model through meteorological properties: precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed/direction, relative humidity and air temperature. The surface medium includes the overland runoff and vegetation growth processes and is simulated using a 2D grid. The porous media includes both the unsaturated (soil) and saturated zones (aquifer) and is simulated using a 3D grid. The river flow is simulated through a 1D drainage network. All these mediums are linked through evapotranspiration and flow exchanges (infiltration, river-soil growndwater flow, surface-river overland flow). Besides the water movement, it is also possible to simulate water quality processes and solute/sediment transport. Model setup include the definition of the geometry and the properties of each one of its compartments. After the setup of the model, the only continuous input data that MOHID LAND requires are the atmosphere properties (boundary conditions) that can be provided as timeseries or spacial data. MOHID LAND has been adapted the last 4 years under FP7 and ESA projects to integrate Earth Observation (EO) data, both variable in time and in space. EO data can be used to calibrate/validate or as input/assimilation data to the model. The currently EO data used include LULC (Land Use Land Cover) maps, LAI (Leaf Area Index) maps, EVTP (Evapotranspiration) maps and SWC (Soil Water Content) maps. Model results are improved by the EO data, but the advantage of this integration is that the model can still run without the EO data. This means that model do not stop due to unavailability of EO data and can run on a forecast mode
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Johnston, Robert; de la Barra, Thomas
2000-01-01
This study demonstrates the sequential linking of two types of models to permit the comprehensive evaluation of regional transportation and land use policies. First, we operate an integrated urban model (TRANUS), which represents both land and travel markets with zones and networks. The travel and land use projections from TRANUS are outlined, to demonstrate the general reasonableness of the results, as this is the first application of a market-based urban model in the US. Second, the land us...
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Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.
2014-09-01
Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream
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Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Soderberg, Ulf
2012-01-01
The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.
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Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.
1994-01-01
The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort
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Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...
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Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seleshi G. Yalew
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009 were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%. Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water. It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025. Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julia Maria Brändle
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdou Azaz, L.K.
2008-01-01
Alexandria is the second largest urban governorate in Egypt and has seen significant urban growth in its modern and contemporary history. This study investigates the urban growth phenomenon in Alexandria, Egypt, using the integration of remote sensing and GIS. The urban physical expansion and change were detected using Landsat satellite images. The satellite images of years 1984 and 1993 were first geo referenced, achieving a very small RMSE that provided high accuracy data for satellite image analysis. Then, the images were classified using a tailored classification scheme with accuracy of 93.82% and 95.27% for 1984 and 1993 images respectively. This high accuracy enabled detecting land use/land cover changes with high confidence using a post-classification comparison method. One of the most important findings here is the loss of cultivated land in favour of urban expansion. If the current loss rates continued, 75% of green lands would be lost by year 2191. These hazardous rates call for an urban growth management policy that can preserve such valuable resources to achieve sustainable urban development. Modelling techniques can help in defining the scenarios of urban growth. In this study, the SLEUTH urban growth model was applied to predict future urban expansion in Alexandria until the year 2055. The application of this model in Alexandria of Egypt with its different environmental characteristics is the first application outside USA and Europe. The results revealed that future urban growth would continue along the edges of the current urban extent. This means that the cultivated lands in the east and the southeast of the city will be decreased. To deal with such crisis, there is a serious need for a comprehensive urban growth management programme that can be based on the best practices in similar situations
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Evaluating The Land Use And Land Cover Dynamics In Borena ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The integration of satellite remote sensing and GIS was an effective approach for analyzing the direction, rate, and spatial pattern of land use change. Three land use and land cover maps were produced by analyzing remotely sensed images of Landsat satellite imageries at three time points (1972,1985,and 2003) .
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Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wallace E. Tyner
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Biofuels impact on global land use has been a controversial yet important topic. Up until recently, there has not been enough biofuels to have caused major land use change, so the evidence from actual global land use data has been scant. However, in the past decade, there have been 72 million hectares added to global crop cover. In this research we take advantage of this new data to calibrate the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP model and parameters. We make two major changes. First, we calibrate the land transformation parameters (called constant elasticity of transformation, CET to global regions so that the parameters better reflect the actual land cover change that has occurred. Second, we alter the land cover nesting structure. In the old GTAP model, cropland, pasture, and forest were all in the same nest suggesting, everything else being equal, that pasture or forest convert to cropland with equal ease and cost. However, we now take advantage of the fact that pasture converts to cropland at lower cost than forest. The paper provides the theoretical and empirical justification for these two model improvements. Then it re-evaluates the global land use impacts due to the USA ethanol program using the improved model tuned with actual observations. Finally, it shows that compared to the old model, the new model projects: (1 less expansion in global cropland due to ethanol expansion; (2 lower U.S. share in global cropland expansion; (3 and lower forest share in global cropland expansion.
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Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uyterlinde, M.A.
1994-06-01
Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs
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A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiangzheng Deng
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tao Tang; Tan Zhu; He Xu
2007-01-01
China currently put forwards 'striving to build an environmentally friendly society' as one of the most important development goals. The land administration authorities are facing the challenge of effectively incorporating environment considerations into their planning system. This paper aims to investigate why and how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is enacted as an effective tool to integrate the environment into land-use planning during the construction process of an environmentally friendly society in China, and identify factors that influence the integration. It presents characteristics of the land-use planning system, and reviews the progress and current state of SEA in China. Results show that SEA provides many benefits in promoting environmental considerations into the land-use planning process. The legal frameworks and operational procedures, in the context of land-use master planning SEA, are summarized and an assessment made of their effectiveness. Some barriers are highlighted through examination of the latest case studies, and several recommendations are presented to overcome these obstacles
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Influence of land development on stormwater runoff from a mixed land use and land cover catchment.
Paule-Mercado, M A; Lee, B Y; Memon, S A; Umer, S R; Salim, I; Lee, C-H
2017-12-01
Mitigating for the negative impacts of stormwater runoff is becoming a concern due to increased land development. Understanding how land development influences stormwater runoff is essential for sustainably managing water resources. In recent years, aggregate low impact development-best management practices (LID-BMPs) have been implemented to reduce the negative impacts of stormwater runoff on receiving water bodies. This study used an integrated approach to determine the influence of land development and assess the ecological benefits of four aggregate LID-BMPs in stormwater runoff from a mixed land use and land cover (LULC) catchment with ongoing land development. It used data from 2011 to 2015 that monitored 41 storm events and monthly LULC, and a Personalized Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM). The four aggregate LID-BMPs are: ecological (S1), utilizing pervious covers (S2), and multi-control (S3) and (S4). These LID-BMPs were designed and distributed in the study area based on catchment characteristics, cost, and effectiveness. PCSWMM was used to simulate the monitored storm events from 2014 (calibration: R 2 and NSE>0.5; RMSE 0.5; RMSE runoff data and LULC change patterns (only 2015 for LID-BMPs) were used. Results show that the expansion of bare land and impervious cover, soil alteration, and high amount of precipitation influenced the stormwater runoff variability during different phases of land development. The four aggregate LID-BMPs reduced runoff volume (34%-61%), peak flow (6%-19%), and pollutant concentrations (53%-83%). The results of this study, in addition to supporting local LULC planning and land development activities, also could be applied to input data for empirical modeling, and designing sustainable stormwater management guidelines and monitoring strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Land Use and Land-use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
De Rosa, Michele
2017-01-01
The assessment of Land Uses and Land-use Changes (LULUC) impacts has become increasingly complex. Sophisticated modelling tools such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are employed to capture both direct and indirect damages. However, quantitative assessments are often incomplete, dominated...... by environmental aspects. Land uses are a multidisciplinary matter and environmental and sustainable development policies intertwine. Yet, LCAs mostly focus on environmental impacts excluding socioeconomic implications of land occupation. This paper investigates the limitations of current LULUC modelling practices....... Consequently, results informing land policies may be biased towards determined development strategies or hide indirect effects and socioeconomic damages caused by large-scale land acquisitions, such as violation of tenure rights, speculation and displacement. Quantitative assessments of LULUC impacts...
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Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang Yimin; Peterson, Steve
2013-01-01
Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate. (letter)
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Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea
2017-12-01
Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.
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Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea
2018-06-01
Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.
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Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.
Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís
2016-07-01
Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Snyder, Abigail C.; Link, Robert P.; Calvin, Katherine V.
2017-11-01
Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable-region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is
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An Approach for Calculating Land Valuation by Using Inspire Data Models
Aydinoglu, A. C.; Bovkir, R.
2017-11-01
Land valuation is a highly important concept for societies and governments have always emphasis on the process especially for taxation, expropriation, market capitalization and economic activity purposes. To success an interoperable and standardised land valuation, INSPIRE data models can be very practical and effective. If data used in land valuation process produced in compliance with INSPIRE specifications, a reliable and effective land valuation process can be performed. In this study, possibility of the performing land valuation process with using the INSPIRE data models was analysed and with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) a case study in Pendik was implemented. For this purpose, firstly data analysis and gathering was performed. After, different data structures were transformed according to the INSPIRE data model requirements. For each data set necessary ETL (Extract-Transform-Load) tools were produced and all data transformed according to the target data requirements. With the availability and practicability of spatial analysis tools of GIS software, land valuation calculations were performed for study area.
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Land Surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - A Generalized Framework for Land Surface Model Evaluation
Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Santanello, Joseph; Harrison, Ken; Liu, Yuqiong; Shaw, Michael
2011-01-01
Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it also supports hydrological data products from other, non-LIS environments. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.
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Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - a generalized framework for land surface model evaluation
Kumar, S. V.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Santanello, J.; Harrison, K.; Liu, Y.; Shaw, M.
2012-06-01
Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it supports hydrological data products from non-LIS environments as well. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.
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Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...
Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro
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Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation
Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.
2017-12-01
Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the
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Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.
2015-04-01
Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream
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Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut
2017-04-01
A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the
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Crespin, Silvio J; Simonetti, Javier A
2018-05-11
Land has traditionally been spared to protect biodiversity; however, this approach has not succeeded by itself and requires a complementary strategy in human-dominated landscapes: land-sharing. Human-wildlife conflicts are rampant in a land-sharing context where wildlife co-occur with crops or livestock, but whose resulting interactions adversely affect the wellbeing of land owners, ultimately impeding coexistence. Therefore, true land-sharing only works if coexistence is also considered an end goal. We reviewed the literature on land-sharing and found that conflicts have not yet found their way into the land-sharing/sparing framework, with wildlife and humans co-occurring without coexisting in a dynamic process. To successfully implement a land-sharing approach, we must first acknowledge our failure to integrate the body of work on human-wildlife conflicts into the framework and work to implement multidisciplinary approaches from the ecological, economic, and sociological sciences to overcome and prevent conflicts. We suggest the use of Conflict Transformation by means of the Levels of Conflict Model to perceive both visible and deep-rooted causes of conflicts as opportunities to create problem-solving dynamics in affected socio-ecological landscapes. Reconciling farming and nature is possible by aiming for a transition to landscapes that truly share space by virtue of coexistence.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wukelic, G.E.; Foote, H.P.; Blair, S.C.; Begej, C.D.
1981-09-01
This study successfully utilized advanced, remote-sensing computer-analysis techniques to quantify and map land- and water-use trends potentially relevant to siting, developing, and operating a national high-level nuclear waste repository on the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in eastern Washington State. Specifically, using a variety of digital data bases (primarily multidate Landsat data) and digital analysis programs, the study produced unique numerical data and integrated data reference maps relevant to regional (Columbia Plateau) and localized (Pasco Basin) hydrologic considerations associated with developing such a facility. Accordingly, study results should directly contribute to the preparation of the Basalt Waste Isolation Project site-characterization report currently in progress. Moreover, since all study data developed are in digital form, they can be called upon to contribute to furute reference repository location monitoring and reporting efforts, as well as be utilized in other DOE programmatic areas having technical and/or environmental interest in the Columbia Plateau region. The results obtained indicate that multidate digital Landsat data provide an inexpensive, up-to-date, and accurate data base and reference map of natural and cultural features existing in any region. These data can be (1) computer enhanced to highlight selected surface features of interest; (2) processed/analyzed to provide regional land-cover/use information and trend data; and (3) combined with other line and point data files to accomodate interactive, correlative analyses and integrated color-graphic displays to aid interpretation and modeling efforts
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Secondary students' use of social and natural world information in a land use decision context
Kumler, Laura M.
Many societal problems, including land use issues, are complex integrated human-ecological challenges that require an understanding of social and natural world connections. This dissertation investigates how secondary students perceive the social and natural world dimensions of land use, how they might act to support sustainable land use, and how Kaplan and Kaplan's (2008) Reasonable Person Model can inform teaching approaches to prepare students for such complex decisions and action-taking. The dissertation argues that subject compartmentalization in high schools adversely impacts students' abilities to use and to integrate information from various subjects to make a land use decision. Nine secondary science and social studies teachers and their students (n=500) participated in a quasi-experiment using pre- and posttests with treatment and comparison groups to gauge students' requests for social versus natural world information to make land use decisions. Students' self-reported actions and knowledge of actions to support sustainable land use were also measured. Additional data included classroom observations, teacher logs and interviews, and 52 student interviews. Results indicated that students requested social world over natural world information and preferred to consult with social scientists and stakeholders over natural scientists. Results also suggested that experiencing an integrated curriculum increased students' requests for natural world information relevant to the land use decision. Interestingly, this effect occurred even among social studies students whose teachers reported putting scant emphasis on the natural world curriculum content. Moreover, the type of course in which students experienced the curriculum predicted student information use. Finally, students were found to have a limited repertoire of land use actions and knowledge of actions and generally reported undertaking and thinking of individual actions such as recycling or trash pick
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Feng, Yongjiu; Tong, Xiaohua
2017-09-22
Defining transition rules is an important issue in cellular automaton (CA)-based land use modeling because these models incorporate highly correlated driving factors. Multicollinearity among correlated driving factors may produce negative effects that must be eliminated from the modeling. Using exploratory regression under pre-defined criteria, we identified all possible combinations of factors from the candidate factors affecting land use change. Three combinations that incorporate five driving factors meeting pre-defined criteria were assessed. With the selected combinations of factors, three logistic regression-based CA models were built to simulate dynamic land use change in Shanghai, China, from 2000 to 2015. For comparative purposes, a CA model with all candidate factors was also applied to simulate the land use change. Simulations using three CA models with multicollinearity eliminated performed better (with accuracy improvements about 3.6%) than the model incorporating all candidate factors. Our results showed that not all candidate factors are necessary for accurate CA modeling and the simulations were not sensitive to changes in statistically non-significant driving factors. We conclude that exploratory regression is an effective method to search for the optimal combinations of driving factors, leading to better land use change models that are devoid of multicollinearity. We suggest identification of dominant factors and elimination of multicollinearity before building land change models, making it possible to simulate more realistic outcomes.
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Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications
Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.
2008-01-01
In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land
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Rapid prototyping of soil moisture estimates using the NASA Land Information System
Anantharaj, V.; Mostovoy, G.; Li, B.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Houser, P.; Moorhead, R.; Kumar, S.
2007-12-01
The Land Information System (LIS), developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, is a functional Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) that incorporates a suite of land models in an interoperable computational framework. LIS has been integrated into a computational Rapid Prototyping Capabilities (RPC) infrastructure. LIS consists of a core, a number of community land models, data servers, and visualization systems - integrated in a high-performance computing environment. The land surface models (LSM) in LIS incorporate surface and atmospheric parameters of temperature, snow/water, vegetation, albedo, soil conditions, topography, and radiation. Many of these parameters are available from in-situ observations, numerical model analysis, and from NASA, NOAA, and other remote sensing satellite platforms at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The computational resources, available to LIS via the RPC infrastructure, support e- Science experiments involving the global modeling of land-atmosphere studies at 1km spatial resolutions as well as regional studies at finer resolutions. The Noah Land Surface Model, available with-in the LIS is being used to rapidly prototype soil moisture estimates in order to evaluate the viability of other science applications for decision making purposes. For example, LIS has been used to further extend the utility of the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network of in-situ soil moisture observations. In addition, LIS also supports data assimilation capabilities that are used to assimilate remotely sensed soil moisture retrievals from the AMSR-E instrument onboard the Aqua satellite. The rapid prototyping of soil moisture estimates using LIS and their applications will be illustrated during the presentation.
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A Framework for Modelling Indirect Land Use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Weidema, Bo Pedersen; Brandão, Miguel
2015-01-01
Around 9% of global CO2 emissions originate from land use changes. Often, these emissions are not appropriately addressed in Life Cycle Assessment. The link between demand for crops in one region and impacts in other regions is referred to here as indirect land use change (iLUC) and includes...... demand for land and land use changes is established through markets for land's production capacity. The iLUC model presented is generally applicable to all land use types, crops and regions of the world in typical LCA decision-making contexts focusing on the long-term effects of small-scale changes...... deforestation, intensification and reduced consumption. Existing models for iLUC tend to ignore intensification and reduced consumption, they most often operate with arbitrary amortisation periods to allocate deforestation emissions over time, and the causal link between land occupation and deforestation...
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From forest to farmland and moraine to meadow: Integrated modeling of Holocene land cover change
Kaplan, J. O.
2012-12-01
Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems, many of which are highly valued today as economic, cultural, and ecological resources. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene, both spatially and temporally. In order to address this problem, we combined a global dynamic vegetation model with a new model of preindustrial anthropogenic land cover change. We drive these integrated models with paleoclimate from GCM scenarios, a new synthesis of global demographic, technological, and economic development over preindustrial time, and a global database of historical urbanization covering the last 8000 years. We simulate land cover and land use change, fire, soil erosion, and emissions of CO2 and methane (CH4) from 11,700 years before present to AD 1850. We evaluate our simulations in part with a new set of continental-scale reconstructions of land cover based on records from the Global Pollen Database. Our model results show that climate and tectonic change controlled global land cover in the early Holocene, e.g., shifts in forest biomes in northern continents show an expansion of temperate tree types far to the north of their present day limits, but that by the early Iron Age (1000 BC), humans in Europe, east Asia, and Mesoamerica had a larger influence than natural processes on the landscape. 3000 years before present, anthropogenic deforestation was widespread with most areas of temperate Europe and southwest Asia, east-central China, northern India, and Mesoamerica occupied by a matrix of natural vegetation, cropland and pastures. Burned area and emissions of CO2 and CH4 from wildfires declined slowly over the entire Holocene, as landscape fragmentation and changing agricultural
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Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle
2017-05-23
The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lynch, A.H.; McIlwaine, S. [PAOS/CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Beringer, J. [Inst. of Arctic Biology, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Bonan, G.B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
2001-05-01
In an illustration of a model evaluation methodology, a multivariate reduced form model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity of a land surface model to changes in atmospheric forcing. The reduced form model is constructed in terms of a set of ten integrative response metrics, including the timing of spring snow melt, sensible and latent heat fluxes in summer, and soil temperature. The responses are evaluated as a function of a selected set of six atmospheric forcing perturbations which are varied simultaneously, and hence each may be thought of as a six-dimensional response surface. The sensitivities of the land surface model are interdependent and in some cases illustrate a physically plausible feedback process. The important predictors of land surface response in a changing climate are the atmospheric temperature and downwelling longwave radiation. Scenarios characterized by warming and drying produce a large relative response compared to warm, moist scenarios. The insensitivity of the model to increases in precipitation and atmospheric humidity is expected to change in applications to coupled models, since these parameters are also strongly implicated, through the representation of clouds, in the simulation of both longwave and shortwave radiation. (orig.)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A
2016-01-01
To assess the biogeophysical impacts of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) on surface temperature, two observation-based metrics and their applicability in climate modeling were explored in this study. Both metrics were developed based on the surface energy balance, and provided insight into the contribution of different aspects of land surface change (such as albedo, surface roughness, net radiation and surface heat fluxes) to changing climate. A revision of the first metric, the intrinsic biophysical mechanism, can be used to distinguish the direct and indirect effects of LCLUC on surface temperature. The other, a decomposed temperature metric, gives a straightforward depiction of separate contributions of all components of the surface energy balance. These two metrics well capture observed and model simulated surface temperature changes in response to LCLUC. Results from paired FLUXNET sites and land surface model sensitivity experiments indicate that surface roughness effects usually dominate the direct biogeophysical feedback of LCLUC, while other effects play a secondary role. However, coupled climate model experiments show that these direct effects can be attenuated by large scale atmospheric changes (indirect feedbacks). When applied to real-time transient LCLUC experiments, the metrics also demonstrate usefulness for assessing the performance of climate models and quantifying land–atmosphere interactions in response to LCLUC. (letter)
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Land use transport interaction models: Application perspectives for the city of Thessaloniki
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pozoukidou Georgia
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Land use patterns and transport system are considered to be the two basic components of the urban development process, and as such they have been in the core of spatial planning policies for the last 4 decades. Land use transport interaction models are computer tools that could help us understand land use changes and organization of human activities in relation to existing or planned transport infrastructure. In this context this paper examines the perspectives of applying a land use transport interaction model for the city of Thessaloniki. Obtaining, preparing and validating socioeconomic data is a crucial part of the modeling process, therefore an extensive search of the required data was performed. The quest for appropriate and suitable data concluded with a detailed recording of emerged problems. In response to the inability of finding suitable data to perform the first step of the modeling process i.e. calibration, the paper concludes with some thoughts related to data availability, organization and standardization issues. Last but not least, the paper stresses out the significance of data availability for utilization of land use transport models, so as not to remain purely academic products but tools with practical value in planning.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shawn R. Francis
2011-12-01
We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.
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Rahman, M Tauhid Ur; Tabassum, Faheemah; Rasheduzzaman, Md; Saba, Humayra; Sarkar, Lina; Ferdous, Jannatul; Uddin, Syed Zia; Zahedul Islam, A Z M
2017-10-17
Change analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) is a technique to study the environmental degradation and to control the unplanned development. Analysis of the past changing trend of LULC along with modeling future LULC provides a combined opportunity to evaluate and guide the present and future land use policy. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, especially Assasuni Upazila of Satkhira District, is the most vulnerable to natural disasters and has faced notable changes in its LULC due to the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic causes. The objectives of this study are to illustrate the temporal dynamics of LULC change in Assasuni Upazila over the last 27 years (i.e., between 1989 and 2015) and also to predict future land use change using CA-ANN (cellular automata and artificial neural network) model for the year 2028. Temporal dynamics of LULC change was analyzed, employing supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images. Then, prediction of future LULC was carried out by CA-ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. The analysis of LULC change revealed that the LULC of Assasuni had changed notably during 1989 to 2015. "Bare lands" decreased by 21% being occupied by other land uses, especially by "shrimp farms." Shrimp farm area increased by 25.9% during this period, indicating a major occupational transformation from agriculture to shrimp aquaculture in the study area during the period under study. Reduction in "settlement" area revealed the trend of migration from the Upazila. The predicted LULC for the year 2028 showed that reduction in bare land area would continue and 1595.97 ha bare land would transform into shrimp farm during 2015 to 2028. Also, the impacts of the changing LULC on the livelihood of local people and migration status of the Upazila were analyzed from the data collected through focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. The analysis revealed that the changing LULC and the occupational shift from paddy
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Advances in land modeling of KIAPS based on the Noah Land Surface Model
Koo, Myung-Seo; Baek, Sunghye; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Cho, Kyoungmi
2017-08-01
As of 2013, the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) version 2.7.1 was implemented in a new global model being developed at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). This land surface scheme is further refined in two aspects, by adding new physical processes and by updating surface input parameters. Thus, the treatment of glacier land, sea ice, and snow cover are addressed more realistically. Inconsistencies in the amount of absorbed solar flux at ground level by the land surface and radiative processes are rectified. In addition, new parameters are available by using 1-km land cover data, which had usually not been possible at a global scale. Land surface albedo/emissivity climatology is newly created using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellitebased data and adjusted parameterization. These updates have been applied to the KIAPS-developed model and generally provide a positive impact on near-surface weather forecasting.
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On land-use modeling: A treatise of satellite imagery data and misclassification error
Sandler, Austin M.
Recent availability of satellite-based land-use data sets, including data sets with contiguous spatial coverage over large areas, relatively long temporal coverage, and fine-scale land cover classifications, is providing new opportunities for land-use research. However, care must be used when working with these datasets due to misclassification error, which causes inconsistent parameter estimates in the discrete choice models typically used to model land-use. I therefore adapt the empirical correction methods developed for other contexts (e.g., epidemiology) so that they can be applied to land-use modeling. I then use a Monte Carlo simulation, and an empirical application using actual satellite imagery data from the Northern Great Plains, to compare the results of a traditional model ignoring misclassification to those from models accounting for misclassification. Results from both the simulation and application indicate that ignoring misclassification will lead to biased results. Even seemingly insignificant levels of misclassification error (e.g., 1%) result in biased parameter estimates, which alter marginal effects enough to affect policy inference. At the levels of misclassification typical in current satellite imagery datasets (e.g., as high as 35%), ignoring misclassification can lead to systematically erroneous land-use probabilities and substantially biased marginal effects. The correction methods I propose, however, generate consistent parameter estimates and therefore consistent estimates of marginal effects and predicted land-use probabilities.
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Navigating trade-offs in land-use planning: integrating human well-being into objective setting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vanessa M. Adams
2014-12-01
Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for development of natural resources, which can be accompanied by environmental degradation. Planning for multiple land uses requires navigating trade-offs between social, economic, and environmental outcomes arising from different possible futures. To explore these trade-offs, we use the Daly River catchment, in Australia's Northern Territory, as a case study. The catchment contains areas of priority for both conservation and development. In response to the challenge of navigating the required trade-offs, the Daly River Management Advisory Committee (DRMAC initiated a land-use plan for the region. Both development and conservation of natural resources in the catchment will affect human well-being and the long-term provisioning of ecosystem services in diverse ways. To understand some of these impacts, an innovative engagement process was designed to elicit the relative importance of key factors to residents' well-being. The process identified 19 well-being factors grouped into four domains: biodiversity, socio-cultural, recreational, and commercial. Overall, the highest-ranked well-being factors were in the social-cultural and biodiversity domains while commercial values were ranked the least important. Respondents reported low satisfaction with commercial factors as well, noting concerns over environmental impacts from existing developments and sustainability of future developments. We identified differences in the reported importance values for several types of stakeholders, most notably between indigenous respondents and those employed in the agricultural sectors. Indigenous respondents placed greater importance on biodiversity and socio-cultural factors. Agricultural respondents placed greater importance on commercial factors. The outcomes of our engagement were integrated into DRMAC's process of objective-setting to ensure that objectives for each domain were included in land-use planning. Our results can also
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leonhart, L.S.; Wukelic, G.E.; Foote, H.P.; Blair, S.C.
1983-09-01
This study successfully utilized advanced, remote-sensing computer-analysis techniques to quantify and map land- and water-use trends potentially relevant to siting, developing, and operating a high-level national, nuclear waste repository on the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in eastern Washington State. Specifically, using a variety of digital data bases (primarily multidate LANDSAT data) and digital analysis programs, the study produced unique numerical data and integrated data reference maps relevant to regional (Columbia Plateau) and localized (Pasco Basin) hydrologic considerations associated with developing such a facility. Because all study data developed are in digital form, they can be called upon to contribute to future reference repository location monitoring and reporting efforts, as well as to be utilized in other US Department of Energy programmatic areas having technical and/or environmental interest in the Columbia Plateau region. The results obtained indicate that multidate digital LANDSAT data provide an inexpensive, up-to-date, and accurate data base and reference map of natural and cultural features existing in any region. These data can be (1) computer enhanced to highlight selected surface features of interest; (2) processed/analyzed to provide regional land cover/use information and trend data; and (3) combined with other line and point data files to accommodate interactive, correlative analyses and integrated colorgraphic displays to aid interpretation and modeling efforts. Once the digital base is established, selected site information can be assessed immediately, various forms of data can be accessed concurrently or separately, and data sets may be displayed or mapped at any scale. Available editing software provides the opportunity to generate credible scenarios for a site while preserving the actual data base. 6 references
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Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.
2017-08-01
Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far-reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges.
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How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Chen
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Land systems are characterised by many feedbacks that can result in complex system behaviour. We defined feedbacks as the two-way influences between the land use system and a related system (e.g., climate, soils and markets, both of which are encompassed by the land system. Land models that include feedbacks thus probably more accurately mimic how land systems respond to, e.g., policy or climate change. However, representing feedbacks in land models is a challenge. We reviewed articles incorporating feedbacks into land models and analysed each with predefined indicators. We found that (1 most modelled feedbacks couple land use systems with transport, soil and market systems, while only a few include feedbacks between land use and social systems or climate systems; (2 equation-based land use models that follow a top-down approach prevail; and (3 feedbacks’ effects on system behaviour remain relatively unexplored. We recommend that land system modellers (1 consider feedbacks between land use systems and social systems; (2 adopt (bottom-up approaches suited to incorporating spatial heterogeneity and better representing land use decision-making; and (3 pay more attention to nonlinear system behaviour and its implications for land system management and policy.
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Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria
2018-01-01
Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as
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Bioenergy Ecosystem Land-Use Modelling and Field Flux Trial
McNamara, Niall; Bottoms, Emily; Donnison, Iain; Dondini, Marta; Farrar, Kerrie; Finch, Jon; Harris, Zoe; Ineson, Phil; Keane, Ben; Massey, Alice; McCalmont, Jon; Morison, James; Perks, Mike; Pogson, Mark; Rowe, Rebecca; Smith, Pete; Sohi, Saran; Tallis, Mat; Taylor, Gail; Yamulki, Sirwan
2013-04-01
Climate change impacts resulting from fossil fuel combustion and concerns about the diversity of energy supply are driving interest to find low-carbon energy alternatives. As a result bioenergy is receiving widespread scientific, political and media attention for its potential role in both supplying energy and mitigating greenhouse (GHG) emissions. It is estimated that the bioenergy contribution to EU 2020 renewable energy targets could require up to 17-21 million hectares of additional land in Europe (Don et al., 2012). There are increasing concerns that some transitions into bioenergy may not be as sustainable as first thought when GHG emissions from the crop growth and management cycle are factored into any GHG life cycle assessment (LCA). Bioenergy is complex and encapsulates a wide range of crops, varying from food crop based biofuels to dedicated second generation perennial energy crops and forestry products. The decision on the choice of crop for energy production significantly influences the GHG mitigation potential. It is recognised that GHG savings or losses are in part a function of the original land-use that has undergone change and the management intensity for the energy crop. There is therefore an urgent need to better quantify both crop and site-specific effects associated with the production of conventional and dedicated energy crops on the GHG balance. Currently, there is scarcity of GHG balance data with respect to second generation crops meaning that process based models and LCAs of GHG balances are weakly underpinned. Therefore, robust, models based on real data are urgently required. In the UK we have recently embarked on a detailed program of work to address this challenge by combining a large number of field studies with state-of-the-art process models. Through six detailed experiments, we are calculating the annual GHG balances of land use transitions into energy crops across the UK. Further, we are quantifying the total soil carbon gain or
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuanyuan Yang
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Decadal to centennial land use and land cover change has been consistently singled out as a key element and an important driver of global environmental change, playing an essential role in balancing energy use. Understanding long-term human-environment interactions requires historical reconstruction of past land use and land cover changes. Most of the existing historical reconstructions have insufficient spatial and thematic detail and do not consider various land change types. In this context, this paper explored the possibility of using a cellular automata-Markov model in 90 m × 90 m spatial resolution to reconstruct historical land use in the 1930s in Zhenlai County, China. Then the three-map comparison methodology was employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the transition modeling. The model could produce backward projections by analyzing land use changes in recent decades, assuming that the present land use pattern is dynamically dependent on the historical one. The reconstruction results indicated that in the 1930s most of the study area was occupied by grasslands, followed by wetlands and arable land, while other land categories occupied relatively small areas. Analysis of the three-map comparison illustrated that the major differences among the three maps have less to do with the simulation model and more to do with the inconsistencies among the land categories during the study period. Different information provided by topographic maps and remote sensing images must be recognized.
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Privatization of Land Plot Under Integral Real Estate Complex
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maruchek A. A.
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the questions concerning the privatization of a land plot under integral real estate complex. The authors come to conclusion that a number of legislation norms relating to privatization of a land plot do not take into account the construction of an integral real estate complex that could cause some problems in the realization of the right to privatization of the land plot
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Integrating Building Energy Efficiency with Land Use and Transportation Planning in Jinan, China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicolae Duduta
2013-02-01
Full Text Available With the rapid growth occurring in the urban regions of China, it is critical to address issues of sustainability through practices that engender holistic energy efficient solutions. In this paper, we present results from a collaborative design project carried out with planning officials from the city of Jinan (population 3.4 million, for the Luokou district, a 3.1 km2 (1.2 mi2 area to the north of the CBD that is expected to house 100,000–130,000 people by 2020. By integrating sustainable building design, land use, urban design, and transportation, our proposal identified opportunities for improving energy efficiency that might have been overlooked by considering buildings and transportation separately. Mixed land uses and walkable neighborhoods were proposed along with highly differentiated street designs, intended to carry different traffic loads and prioritize diverse travel modes. Street widths and building heights were adjusted to maximize the potential for passive solar heating and daylight use within buildings. The district’s environmental performance, analyzed using building energy evaluation and traffic micro simulation models, showed that the design would reduce energy loads by over 25% compared to business as usual. While the proposal complied with national and local policies, and had far better energy performance than conventional designs, the proposal ultimately was not accepted by local officials because initial costs to the developers were higher than for conventional designs.
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SESSION V: INTEGRATED APPROACHES IN LAND AND WATER ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
SESSION V: INTEGRATED APPROACHES IN LAND AND WATER MANAGEMENT RESEARCH/LAND AND WATER MANAGEMENT ECONOMICS AND POLICY - Socioeconomic implications of improved forage species on smallholder farms in Kenya.
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Bach, H.; Klug, P.; Ruf, T.; Migdall, S.; Schlenz, F.; Hank, T.; Mauser, W.
2015-04-01
To support food security, information products about the actual cropping area per crop type, the current status of agricultural production and estimated yields, as well as the sustainability of the agricultural management are necessary. Based on this information, well-targeted land management decisions can be made. Remote sensing is in a unique position to contribute to this task as it is globally available and provides a plethora of information about current crop status. M4Land is a comprehensive system in which a crop growth model (PROMET) and a reflectance model (SLC) are coupled in order to provide these information products by analyzing multi-temporal satellite images. SLC uses modelled surface state parameters from PROMET, such as leaf area index or phenology of different crops to simulate spatially distributed surface reflectance spectra. This is the basis for generating artificial satellite images considering sensor specific configurations (spectral bands, solar and observation geometries). Ensembles of model runs are used to represent different crop types, fertilization status, soil colour and soil moisture. By multi-temporal comparisons of simulated and real satellite images, the land cover/crop type can be classified in a dynamically, model-supervised way and without in-situ training data. The method is demonstrated in an agricultural test-site in Bavaria. Its transferability is studied by analysing PROMET model results for the rest of Germany. Especially the simulated phenological development can be verified on this scale in order to understand whether PROMET is able to adequately simulate spatial, as well as temporal (intra- and inter-season) crop growth conditions, a prerequisite for the model-supervised approach. This sophisticated new technology allows monitoring of management decisions on the field-level using high resolution optical data (presently RapidEye and Landsat). The M4Land analysis system is designed to integrate multi-mission data and is
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. L. Barbu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The land monitoring service of the European Copernicus programme has developed a set of satellite-based biogeophysical products, including surface soil moisture (SSM and leaf area index (LAI. This study investigates the impact of joint assimilation of remotely sensed SSM derived from Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT backscatter data and the Copernicus Global Land GEOV1 satellite-based LAI product into the the vegetation growth version of the Interactions between Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA-A-gs land surface model within the the externalised surface model (SURFEX modelling platform of Météo-France. The ASCAT data were bias corrected with respect to the model climatology by using a seasonal-based CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function matching technique. A multivariate multi-scale land data assimilation system (LDAS based on the extended Kalman Filter (EKF is used for monitoring the soil moisture, terrestrial vegetation, surface carbon and energy fluxes across the domain of France at a spatial resolution of 8 km. Each model grid box is divided into a number of land covers, each having its own set of prognostic variables. The filter algorithm is designed to provide a distinct analysis for each land cover while using one observation per grid box. The updated values are aggregated by computing a weighted average. In this study, it is demonstrated that the assimilation scheme works effectively within the ISBA-A-gs model over a four-year period (2008–2011. The EKF is able to extract useful information from the data signal at the grid scale and distribute the root-zone soil moisture and LAI increments throughout the mosaic structure of the model. The impact of the assimilation on the vegetation phenology and on the water and carbon fluxes varies from one season to another. The spring drought of 2011 is an interesting case study of the potential of the assimilation to improve drought monitoring. A comparison between simulated and in situ soil
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An economic theory-based explanatory model of agricultural land-use patterns
Diogo, V.; Koomen, E.; Kuhlman, T.
2015-01-01
An economic theory-based land-use modelling framework is presented aiming to explain the causal link between economic decisions and resulting spatial patterns of agricultural land use. The framework assumes that farmers pursue utility maximisation in agricultural production systems, while
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Verburg, P.H.; Veldkamp, A.
2001-01-01
Single research methodologies do not suffice for a complete analysis of land-use change. Instead, a sequence of methodologies is needed that link up and integrate disciplinary components over a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a modelling methodology is presented aiming at the
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Inan, Halil Ibrahim; Sagris, Valentina; Devos, Wim; Milenov, Pavel; van Oosterom, Peter; Zevenbergen, Jaap
2010-12-01
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) has dramatically changed after 1992, and from then on the CAP focused on the management of direct income subsidies instead of production-based subsidies. For this focus, Member States (MS) are expected to establish Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS), including a Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) as the spatial part of IACS. Different MS have chosen different solutions for their LPIS. Currently, some MS based their IACS/LPIS on data from their Land Administration Systems (LAS), and many others use purpose built special systems for their IACS/LPIS. The issue with these different IACS/LPIS is that they do not have standardized structures; rather, each represents a unique design in each MS, both in the case of LAS based or special systems. In this study, we aim at designing a core data model for those IACS/LPIS based on LAS. For this purpose, we make use of the ongoing standardization initiatives for LAS (Land Administration Domain Model: LADM) and IACS/LPIS (LPIS Core Model: LCM). The data model we propose in this study implies the collaboration between LADM and LCM and includes some extensions. Some basic issues with the collaboration model are discussed within this study: registration of farmers, land use rights and farming limitations, geometry/topology, temporal data management etc. For further explanation of the model structure, sample instance level diagrams illustrating some typical situations are also included. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure
Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid
2018-05-01
Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.
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Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Pathiraja
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.
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The benefits of GIS to land use planning
Strielko, Irina; Pereira, Paulo
2014-05-01
The development of information technologies has significantly changed the approach to land use and spatial planning, management of natural resources. GIS considerably simplifies territorial planning operating analyzing necessary data concerning their spatial relationship that allows carrying out complex assessment of the situation and creates a basis for adoption of more exact and scientifically reasonable decisions in the course of land use. To assess the current land use situation and the possibility of modeling possible future changes associated with complex of adopted measures GIS allows the integration of diverse spatial data, for example, data about soils, climate, vegetation, and other and also to visualize available information in the form of maps, graphs or charts, 3D models. For the purposes of land use GIS allow using data of remote sensing, which allows to make monitoring of anthropogenic influence in a particular area and estimate scales and rates of degradation of green cover, flora and fauna. Assessment of land use can be made in complex or componentwise, indicating the test sites depending on the goals. GIS make it easy to model spatial distribution of various types of pollution of stationary and mobile sources in soil, atmosphere and the hydrological network. Based on results of the analysis made by GIS choose the optimal solutions of land use that provide the minimum impact on environment, make optimal decisions of conflict associated with land use and control of their using. One of the major advantages of using GIS is possibility of the complex analysis in concrete existential aspect. Analytical opportunities of GIS define conditionality of spatial distribution of objects and interrelation communication between them. For a variety of land management objectives analysis method is chosen based on the parameters of the problem and parameters of use of its results.
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Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.
Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M
2018-01-01
Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.
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Kamruzzaman, M.
2014-01-01
This study reports an action research undertaken at Queensland University of Technology. It evaluates the effectiveness of the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) within the substantive domains of an existing land use planning course in 2011. Using student performance, learning experience survey, and questionnaire survey data, it…
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Forney, William M.; Oldham, I. Benson; Crescenti, Neil
2013-01-01
This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include
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[Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model].
Yuan, Yu-zhi; Zhang, Zheng-dong; Meng, Jin-hua
2015-04-01
SWAT model, an extensively used distributed hydrological model, was used to quantitatively analyze the influences of changes in land use and climate on the runoff at watershed scale. Liuxihe Watershed' s SWAT model was established and three scenarios were set. The calibration and validation at three hydrological stations of Wenquan, Taipingchang and Nangang showed that the three factors of Wenquan station just only reached the standard in validated period, and the other two stations had relative error (RE) 0.8 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency valve (Ens) > 0.75, suggesting that SWAT model was appropriate for simulating runoff response to land use change and climate variability in Liuxihe watershed. According to the integrated scenario simulation, the annual runoff increased by 11.23 m3 x s(-1) from 2001 to 2010 compared with the baseline period from 1991 to 2000, among which, the land use change caused an annual runoff reduction of 0.62 m3 x s(-1), whereas climate variability caused an annual runoff increase of 11.85 m3 x s(-1). Apparently, the impact of climate variability was stronger than that of land use change. On the other hand, the scenario simulation of extreme land use showed that compared with the land use in 2000, the annual runoff of the farmland scenario and the grassland scenario increased by 2.7% and 0.5% respectively, while that of the forest land scenario were reduced by 0.7%, which suggested that forest land had an ability of diversion closure. Furthermore, the scenario simulation of climatic variability indicated that the change of river runoff correlated positively with precipitation change (increase of 11.6% in annual runoff with increase of 10% in annual precipitation) , but negatively with air temperature change (reduction of 0.8% in annual runoff with increase of 1 degrees C in annual mean air temperature), which showed that the impact of precipitation variability was stronger than that of air temperature change. Therefore, in face of climate
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagai, Haruyasu
2003-12-01
A new method to couple atmosphere and land-surface models using the message passing interface (MPI) was proposed to develop an atmosphere-land model for studies on heat, water, and material exchanges around the land surface. A non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamic model of Pennsylvania State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research (PUS/NCAR-MM5) and a detailed land surface model (SOLVEG) including the surface-layer atmosphere, soil, and vegetation developed at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) are used as the atmosphere and land-surface models, respectively. Concerning the MPI, a message passing library named Stampi developed at JAERI that can be used between different parallel computers is used. The models are coupled by exchanging calculation results by using MPI on their independent parallel calculations. The modifications for this model coupling are easy, simply adding some modules for data exchanges to each model code without changing each model's original structure. Moreover, this coupling method is flexible and allows the use of independent time step and grid interval for each model. (author)
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Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M
2014-06-01
Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the
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Gahlot, Shilpa; Shu, Shijie; Jain, Atul K.; Baidya Roy, Somnath
2017-11-01
In this paper we explore the trend in net biome productivity (NBP) over India for the period 1980-2012 and quantify the impact of different environmental factors, including atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), land use and land cover change, climate, and nitrogen deposition on carbon fluxes using a land surface model, Integrated Science Assessment Model. Results show that terrestrial ecosystems of India have been a carbon sink for this period. Driven by a strong CO2 fertilization effect, magnitude of NBP increased from 27.17 TgC/yr in the 1980s to 34.39 TgC/yr in the 1990s but decreased to 23.70 TgC/yr in the 2000s due to change in climate. Adoption of forest conservation, management, and reforestation policies in the past decade has promoted carbon sequestration in the ecosystems, but this effect has been offset by loss of carbon from ecosystems due to rising temperatures and decrease in precipitation.
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Experimental use of Land Surface Models in the La Plata Basin
Goncalves, L.; de Mattos, J. Z.; Sapucci, L. F.; Herdies, D. L.; Berbery, E. H.
2009-12-01
Soil moisture is a key variable that controls the partitioning between sensible and latent heat flux, and under favorable conditions, it can modulate precipitation. The overlying boundary layer can be affected by soil moisture anomalies when persisting for an enough period of time. Several studies have shown the influence of surface processes in the South American atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. However the absence of a comprehensive observation network over that region represents a disadvantage for determining and quantifying memory and coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere. The La Plata Basin (LPB) in southeastern South America is recognized as an area of great importance for the economic and social development of several countries. Vast areas of this basin have experienced changes in land cover conditions due to the expansion of the agriculture (replacing natural vegetation), but also due to changes in crop types. This work presents results from an ensemble of four land surface models (Noah, CLM, MOSAIC and SiB2) used for climatic characterization of the past 30 years of soil moisture and temperature over the LPB. The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) was downscaled to be used to force the land surface models at 10Km, 3-hourly resolutions. Two sets of runs were made for this study: first, the LSMs were forced using reanalysis data to characterize the climatological states at coarse resolution, and second, the models were run using South American LDAS forcing fields from 2000 until present at higher resolution. The resulting spread among the different models was used as a measure of uncertainty in the initial states. In particular, the surface states derived from the Noah model were rescaled and used as initial conditions for atmospheric model simulations using the coupled ETA/Noah models. The control run was performed using
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Pongratz, Julia; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Fuchs, Richard; Herold, Martin; Jones, Chris; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Naudts, Kim
2018-04-01
As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices-forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire-for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify "low-hanging fruits" for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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A new spatial multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach to land use change analysis.
2013-09-01
This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a : spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial : MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensit...
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Karamat, Tashfeen B; Atia, Mohamed M; Noureldin, Aboelmagd
2015-09-22
Reduced inertial sensor systems (RISS) have been introduced by many researchers as a low-cost, low-complexity sensor assembly that can be integrated with GPS to provide a robust integrated navigation system for land vehicles. In earlier works, the developed error models were simplified based on the assumption that the vehicle is mostly moving on a flat horizontal plane. Another limitation is the simplified estimation of the horizontal tilt angles, which is based on simple averaging of the accelerometers' measurements without modelling their errors or tilt angle errors. In this paper, a new error model is developed for RISS that accounts for the effect of tilt angle errors and the accelerometer's errors. Additionally, it also includes important terms in the system dynamic error model, which were ignored during the linearization process in earlier works. An augmented extended Kalman filter (EKF) is designed to incorporate tilt angle errors and transversal accelerometer errors. The new error model and the augmented EKF design are developed in a tightly-coupled RISS/GPS integrated navigation system. The proposed system was tested on real trajectories' data under degraded GPS environments, and the results were compared to earlier works on RISS/GPS systems. The findings demonstrated that the proposed enhanced system introduced significant improvements in navigational performance.
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Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network
Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.
2017-01-01
This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.
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An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke
2008-01-01
Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.
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An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun
2008-01-01
Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.
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Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias
2017-04-01
Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the
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Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.
2017-12-01
Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.
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The Development in modeling Tibetan Plateau Land/Climate Interaction
Xue, Yongkang; Liu, Ye; li, qian; Maheswor Shrestha, Maheswor; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Cox, Peter; Sun, shufen; Koike, Toshio
2015-04-01
Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in influencing the continental and planetary scale climate, including East Asian and South Asian monsoon, circulation and precipitation over West Pacific and Indian Oceans. The numerical study has identified TP as the area with strongest land/atmosphere interactions over the midlatitude land. The land degradation there has also affected the monsoon precipitation in TP along the monsoon pathway. The water cycle there affects water sources for major Asian river systems, which include the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yellow, and Yangtze Rivers. Despite the importance of TP land process in the climate system, the TP land surface processes are poorly modeled due to lack of data available for model validation. To better understand, simulate, and project the role of Tibetan Plateau land surface processes, better parameterization of the Tibetan Land surface processes have been developed and evaluated. The recently available field measurement there and satellite observation have greatly helped this development. This paper presents these new developments and preliminary results using the newly developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, frozen soil model, and glacier model. In recent CMIP5 simulation, the CMIP5 models with dynamic vegetation model show poor performance in simulating the TP vegetation and climate. To better simulate the TP vegetation condition and its interaction with climate, we have developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID), based on water, carbon, and energy balance. The simulated vegetation variables are updates, driven by carbon assimilation, allocation, and accumulation, as well as competition between plant functional types. The model has been validated with the station data, including those measured over the TP
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Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.
Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H
2012-07-01
Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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The Integrated Assessment of Land Degradation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luca Salvati
Full Text Available This paper reviews recent findings on the complex field of land degradation (LD with focus on the Mediterranean Basin and Italy, in particular. The LD definition and assessment methods are examined in the light of the most important natural and human driving forces of the phenomenon, such as land use and climate changes.Various methodological issues are dealt with from multidisciplinary perspective with the aim of providing the ground for the development of integrated approaches: monitoring needs, assessment of costs, development of mitigation strategies, etc. Factors affecting land vulnerability to degradation are classified into bio-physical and socio-economic drivers with some examples of applications in Italy. The role of determinants such as agricultural development, population growth, and urban sprawl is recognised as important but still ambiguous and thus needs further studies. Based on these findings, policy responses aimed at mitigating LD and thus reducing desertification risk are discussed and methodological proposal are presented.
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Lee, J.; Zhang, Y.; Klein, S. A.
2017-12-01
The triggering of the land breeze, and hence the development of deep convection over heterogeneous land should be understood as a consequence of the complex processes involving various factors from land surface and atmosphere simultaneously. That is a sub-grid scale process that many large-scale models have difficulty incorporating it into the parameterization scheme partly due to lack of our understanding. Thus, it is imperative that we approach the problem using a high-resolution modeling framework. In this study, we use SAM-SLM (Lee and Khairoutdinov, 2015), a large-eddy simulation model coupled to a land model, to explore the cloud effect such as cold pool, the cloud shading and the soil moisture memory on the land breeze structure and the further development of cloud and precipitation over a heterogeneous land surface. The atmospheric large scale forcing and the initial sounding are taken from the new composite case study of the fair-weather, non-precipitating shallow cumuli at ARM SGP (Zhang et al., 2017). We model the land surface as a chess board pattern with alternating leaf area index (LAI). The patch contrast of the LAI is adjusted to encompass the weak to strong heterogeneity amplitude. The surface sensible- and latent heat fluxes are computed according to the given LAI representing the differential surface heating over a heterogeneous land surface. Separate from the surface forcing imposed from the originally modeled surface, the cases that transition into the moist convection can induce another layer of the surface heterogeneity from the 1) radiation shading by clouds, 2) adjusted soil moisture pattern by the rain, 3) spreading cold pool. First, we assess and quantifies the individual cloud effect on the land breeze and the moist convection under the weak wind to simplify the feedback processes. And then, the same set of experiments is repeated under sheared background wind with low level jet, a typical summer time wind pattern at ARM SGP site, to
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Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena
2016-09-01
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be
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Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, P.; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Boucher, M.; Cappelaere, B.; de Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Nouvellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.
2013-03-01
Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's economically poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled evapotranspiration (ET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a remote sensing model of transpiration (the primary component of ET), driven by a time series of vegetation indices, was used to substitute transpiration from the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force, and Hydrology Research Laboratory at National Weather Service Land Surface Model (GNOAH) to improve total ET model estimates for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against GNOAH ET and the remote sensing method using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance were at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites was poor, but better than the models before hybridization. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a simple canopy scheme that depends primarily on low bias surface climate reanalysis data and is driven primarily by a time series of vegetation indices.
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Road network - land use interaction model: Malang City in Indonesian case
Waloejo, B. S.
2017-06-01
Urban population in Indonesia is significantly increasing from 44% of total population in 2002 to approximately 60% in 2015. Rapid population growth has resulted in rapid urban land use changes. The problems became more complicated since the changes created mixed use development along the main urban corridors that resulted in higher trip generation and attraction while urban land very limited that made road widening and creation of new road less possible. This led to an accumulation of movement, worse road’s level of service and congestion in the main urban corridor. The aims of the research are to analyse trip generation/attraction of the mixed- land uses of the main corridors Malang City; and to formulate road network - land use interaction model in the case of Malang (a nearly 1 million population city in 2015). The selected corridors in Malang City a main road in the west district of Malang City - Indonesia. Correlational method (Pearson Product Moment) and regression method (stepwise, anova for land use’s trip generation/attraction), and analysis of road’s level of service (LOS), using Indonesian Road Capacity Manual, are employed in this research. The research formulated the interaction model as: \\begin{eqnarray}\\begin{array}{lll}{V}{total} & = & \\displaystyle \\sum {V}{internal}+\\displaystyle \\sum {V}{external} {Where}\\ \\displaystyle \\sum {V}{internal} & = & {e}{residential}{Y}{residential}+{e}{schools}{Y}{schools}+{e}{unis}{Y}{unis}+{e}{offices}{Y}{offices}+{e}{hospital}{Y}{hospital}+{e}{chemists}{Y}{chemists}+{e}{commercial}{Y}{commercial}+{e}{market}{Y}{market}+{e}{fuel {station}}{Y}{fuel {station}}+{e}{bus {station}}{Y}{bus {station}} {and}\\ \\displaystyle \\sum {V}{external} & = & \\displaystyle \\sum {V}{local {roads}}+{V}{continous {traffic} {flow}}\\end{array}\\end{eqnarray} The research showed that V_total=23,033 car unit/day (internal) + 32,746 car unit/day (external) = 55,779 car unit/day. The trip higher than the road’s capacity
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hasibuan, H S; Moersidik, S; Koestoer, R; Soemardi, T P
2014-01-01
There is an interaction between land use, transportation, and environment in improving and managing urban quality. One of the concpets to integrate those three aspects is Transit Oriented Development (TOD). It is a concept for managing urban growth in transit corridors which have characteristics of mixed land use, compact, walkability, and development focused around public transit area. This research aims at utilizing GIS to organize, sort, and analyze spatial data including aspects of land use, transportation, and environment. Jabodetabek is a strategic metropolitan area in Indonesia, and consists of DKI Jakarta and the neighboring Bodetabek cities, with more than 27 million population in 2010. Approximately 1,105,000 people are entering Jakarta every workday from the negihboring Bodetabek region. The surge in the number of passenger cars and motorcycles is astonishing. In contrast, the usage of public transport has declined deeply. Public transport infrastructure development without the integration of TOD may not attain the objective of reducing car dependency. This paper discusses the study which was carried out to identify the applicability of TOD principles in Jabodetabek using GIS as a tool to analysis and create model
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Yektafar
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Desertification, is a complex phenomenon, which as environmental, socio-economical, and cultural impacts on natural resources. According to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification defination, desertification is land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid regions, resulting from climate change and human activities. Because of limiting access to qualified water resources in arid lands, it is necessary to use, all forms of acceptable water resources such as wastewater. Since irrigation with sewages has most effects on soil, in this research, desertification intensity of lands irrigated with sewages and natural lands of the area, where located near Yazd city, has been analyzed considering soil criterion of the Iranian Model for Desertification Potential Assessment (IMDPA. Several studies have done in Iran and in the world in order to provide national, regional or global desertification assessment models. A significant feature of the IMDPA is easily defining and measuring criteria, indicators, and ability of the model to use geometric means for the criteria and indicators. Materials and Methods: In first step, In first step, in a random method, soil samples were taken in each of the defined land units with considering of the size of area. Next, all indices related to the soil criterion such as soil texture index, soil deep gravel percentage, soil depth, and soil electrical conductivity were evaluated in each land use (both irrigated lands and natural lands and weighted considering the present conditions of the lands. Each index was scored according to the standard table of soil that categorized desertification. Then, geometry average of all indices were calculated and map of the desertification intensity of the study area were prepared. Thus, four maps were prepared according to each index. These maps were used to study both quality and effect of each index on desertification. Finally, these maps were
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Pagán, B. R.; Martens, B.; Maes, W. H.; Miralles, D. G.
2017-12-01
Global satellite-based data sets of land evaporation overcome limitations in coverage of in situ measurements while retaining some observational nature. Although their potential for real world applications are promising, their value during dry conditions is still poorly understood. Most evaporation retrieval algorithms are not directly sensitive to soil moisture. An exception is the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), which uses satellite surface soil moisture and precipitation to account for land water availability. The existing methodology may greatly benefit from the optimal integration of novel observations of the land surface. Microwave vegetation optical depth (VOD) and near-infrared solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) are expected to reflect different aspects of evaporative stress. While the former is considered to be a proxy of vegetation water content, the latter is indicative of the activity of photosynthetic machinery. As stomata regulate both photosynthesis and transpiration, we expect a relationship between SIF and transpiration. An important motivation to incorporate observations in land evaporation calculations is that plant transpiration - usually the largest component of the flux - is extremely challenging to model due to species-dependent responses to drought. Here we present an innovative integration of VOD and SIF into the GLEAM evaporative stress function. VOD is utilized as a measurement of isohydricity to improve the representation of species specific drought responses. SIF is used for transpiration modelling, a novel application, and standardized by incoming solar radiation to better account for radiation-limited periods. Results are validated with global FLUXNET and International Soil Moisture Network data and demonstrate that the incorporation of VOD and SIF can yield accurate estimates of transpiration over large-scales, which are essential to further understand ecosystem-atmosphere feedbacks and the response of terrestrial
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Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.
2013-12-01
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of
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Land use change and prediction in the Baimahe Basin using GIS and CA-Markov model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Shixu; Zhang, Zulu; Wang, Xue
2014-01-01
Using ArcGIS and IDRISI, land use dynamics and Shannon entropy information were applied in this paper to analyze the quantity and structure change in the Baimahe Basin from 1996 to 2008. A CA-Markov model was applied to predict the land use patterns in 2020. Results showed that farmland, forest and construction land are the dominant land use types in the Baimahe Basin. From 1996 to 2008, areas of farmland and forest decreased and other land use types increased, with construction land increasing the most. The prediction results showed that the changes in land use patterns from 2008 to 2020 would be the same with those from 1996 to 2008. Main changes are the transiting out of farmland and forest and the transiting in of construction land. The order degree of the whole basin goes on decreasing. Measures of farmland protection and grain for green projects should be adopted to enhance the stability of land use system in the Baimahe Basin in order to promote regional sustainable development
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Dirmeyer, Paul A; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jiexia; Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua; Cash, Benjamin A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Mahanama, Sarith; Koster, Randal D; Santanello, Joseph A; Ek, Michael B; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Dutra, Emanuel; Lawrence, D M
2018-02-01
We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.
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Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.
2017-12-01
For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land
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Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model
Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing
2016-09-01
Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.
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Wickham, James D.; Homer, Collin G.; Vogelmann, James E.; McKerrow, Alexa; Mueller, Rick; Herold, Nate; Coluston, John
2014-01-01
The Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium demonstrates the national benefits of USA Federal collaboration. Starting in the mid-1990s as a small group with the straightforward goal of compiling a comprehensive national Landsat dataset that could be used to meet agencies’ needs, MRLC has grown into a group of 10 USA Federal Agencies that coordinate the production of five different products, including the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP), the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), the Gap Analysis Program (GAP), and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE). As a set, the products include almost every aspect of land cover from impervious surface to detailed crop and vegetation types to fire fuel classes. Some products can be used for land cover change assessments because they cover multiple time periods. The MRLC Consortium has become a collaborative forum, where members share research, methodological approaches, and data to produce products using established protocols, and we believe it is a model for the production of integrated land cover products at national to continental scales. We provide a brief overview of each of the main products produced by MRLC and examples of how each product has been used. We follow that with a discussion of the impact of the MRLC program and a brief overview of future plans.
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Lee, M.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, Paul C. D.; Jaffé, P. R.
2014-01-01
We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the
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Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1 Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SUN Yi-yang
2016-05-01
Full Text Available In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1 were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.
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Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
2015-12-01
The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data
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Multiregional input-output model for China's farm land and water use.
Guo, Shan; Shen, Geoffrey Qiping
2015-01-06
Land and water are the two main drivers of agricultural production. Pressure on farm land and water resources is increasing in China due to rising food demand. Domestic trade affects China's regional farm land and water use by distributing resources associated with the production of goods and services. This study constructs a multiregional input-output model to simultaneously analyze China's farm land and water uses embodied in consumption and interregional trade. Results show a great similarity for both China's farm land and water endowments. Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, and Yunnan are the most important drivers of farm land and water consumption in China, even though they have relatively few land and water resource endowments. Significant net transfers of embodied farm land and water flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Heilongjiang is the largest farm land and water supplier, in contrast to Shanghai as the largest receiver. The results help policy makers to comprehensively understand embodied farm land and water flows in a complex economy network. Improving resource utilization efficiency and reshaping the embodied resource trade nexus should be addressed by considering the transfer of regional responsibilities.
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Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.
2017-12-01
We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexis eDrogoul
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The Vietnamese Mekong Delta has undergone in recent years a considerable transformation in agricultural land-use, fueled by a boom of the exportation, an increase of population, a focus on intensive crops, but also environmental factors like sea level rise or the progression of soil salinity. These transformations have been, however, largely misestimated by the ten-year agricultural plans designed at the provincial levels, on the predictions of which, though, most of the large-scale investments (irrigation infrastructures, protection against flooding or salinity intrusion, and so on are normally planned. This situation raises the question of how to explain the divergence between the predictions used as a basis for these plans and the actual situation. Answering it could, as a matter of fact, offer some insights on the dynamics at play and hopefully allow designing them more accurately.The dynamics of land-use change at a scale of a region results from the interactions between heterogeneous actors and factors at different scales, among them institutional policies, individual farming choices, land-cover and environmental changes, economic conditions, social dynamics, just to name a few. Understanding its evolution, for example, in this case, to better support agricultural planning, therefore requires the use of models that can represent the individual contributions of each actor or factor, and of course their interactions.We address this question through the design of an integrated hybrid model of land-use change in a specific and carefully chosen case study, which relies on the central hypothesis that the main force driving land-use change is actually the individual choices made by farmers at their local level. Farmers are the actors who decide (or not to switch from one culture to another and the shifts observed at more global levels (village, district, province, region are considered, in this model, as a consequence of the aggregation of these
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SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Krysanova, V; Wechsung, F; Arnold, J; Srinivasan, R; Williams, J
2000-12-01
The model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was developed in order to provide a comprehensive GIS-based tool for hydrological and water quality modelling in mesoscale and large river basins (from 100 to 10,000 km{sup 2}), which can be parameterised using regionally available information. The model was developed for the use mainly in Europe and temperate zone, though its application in other regions is possible as well. SWIM is based on two previously developed tools - SWAT and MATSALU (see more explanations in section 1.1). The model integrates hydrology, vegetation, erosion, and nutrient dynamics at the watershed scale. SWIM has a three-level disaggregation scheme 'basin - sub-basins - hydrotopes' and is coupled to the Geographic Information System GRASS (GRASS, 1993). A robust approach is suggested for the nitrogen and phosphorus modelling in mesoscale watersheds. SWIM runs under the UNIX environment. Model test and validation were performed sequentially for hydrology, crop growth, nitrogen and erosion in a number of mesoscale watersheds in the German part of the Elbe drainage basin. A comprehensive scheme of spatial disaggregation into sub-basins and hydrotopes combined with reasonable restriction on a sub-basin area allows performing the assessment of water resources and water quality with SWIM in mesoscale river basins. The modest data requirements represent an important advantage of the model. Direct connection to land use and climate data provides a possibility to use the model for analysis of climate change and land use change impacts on hydrology, agricultural production, and water quality. (orig.)
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Land-use regression panel models of NO2 concentrations in Seoul, Korea
Kim, Youngkook; Guldmann, Jean-Michel
2015-04-01
Transportation and land-use activities are major air pollution contributors. Since their shares of emissions vary across space and time, so do air pollution concentrations. Despite these variations, panel data have rarely been used in land-use regression (LUR) modeling of air pollution. In addition, the complex interactions between traffic flows, land uses, and meteorological variables, have not been satisfactorily investigated in LUR models. The purpose of this research is to develop and estimate nitrogen dioxide (NO2) panel models based on the LUR framework with data for Seoul, Korea, accounting for the impacts of these variables, and their interactions with spatial and temporal dummy variables. The panel data vary over several scales: daily (24 h), seasonally (4), and spatially (34 intra-urban measurement locations). To enhance model explanatory power, wind direction and distance decay effects are accounted for. The results show that vehicle-kilometers-traveled (VKT) and solar radiation have statistically strong positive and negative impacts on NO2 concentrations across the four seasonal models. In addition, there are significant interactions with the dummy variables, pointing to VKT and solar radiation effects on NO2 concentrations that vary with time and intra-urban location. The results also show that residential, commercial, and industrial land uses, and wind speed, temperature, and humidity, all impact NO2 concentrations. The R2 vary between 0.95 and 0.98.
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Modelling the regional application of stakeholder identified land management strategies.
Irvine, B. J.; Fleskens, L.; Kirkby, M. J.
2012-04-01
The DESIRE project has trialled a series of sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. These technologies have been identified as being beneficial in mitigating land degradation by local stakeholders from a range of semi-arid study sites. The field results and the qualitative WOCAT technology assessment ftom across the study sites have been used to develop the adapted PESERA SLM model. This paper considers the development of the adapted PESERA SLM model and the potential for applying locally successful SLM technologies across a wider range of climatic and environmental conditions with respect to degradation risk, biomass production and the investment cost interface (PESERA/DESMICE). The integrate PESERA/DESMICE model contributes to the policy debate by providing a biophysical and socio-economic assessment of technology and policy scenarios.
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Karamat, Tashfeen B.; Atia, Mohamed M.; Noureldin, Aboelmagd
2015-01-01
Reduced inertial sensor systems (RISS) have been introduced by many researchers as a low-cost, low-complexity sensor assembly that can be integrated with GPS to provide a robust integrated navigation system for land vehicles. In earlier works, the developed error models were simplified based on the assumption that the vehicle is mostly moving on a flat horizontal plane. Another limitation is the simplified estimation of the horizontal tilt angles, which is based on simple averaging of the accelerometers’ measurements without modelling their errors or tilt angle errors. In this paper, a new error model is developed for RISS that accounts for the effect of tilt angle errors and the accelerometer’s errors. Additionally, it also includes important terms in the system dynamic error model, which were ignored during the linearization process in earlier works. An augmented extended Kalman filter (EKF) is designed to incorporate tilt angle errors and transversal accelerometer errors. The new error model and the augmented EKF design are developed in a tightly-coupled RISS/GPS integrated navigation system. The proposed system was tested on real trajectories’ data under degraded GPS environments, and the results were compared to earlier works on RISS/GPS systems. The findings demonstrated that the proposed enhanced system introduced significant improvements in navigational performance. PMID:26402680
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NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.
Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad
2015-01-15
Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Site selection model for new metro stations based on land use
Zhang, Nan; Chen, Xuewu
2015-12-01
Since the construction of metro system generally lags behind the development of urban land use, sites of metro stations should adapt to their surrounding situations, which was rarely discussed by previous research on station layout. This paper proposes a new site selection model to find the best location for a metro station, establishing the indicator system based on land use and combining AHP with entropy weight method to obtain the schemes' ranking. The feasibility and efficiency of this model has been validated by evaluating Nanjing Shengtai Road station and other potential sites.
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Seto, Karen Ching-Yee
Over the last two decades, rapid rates of economic growth in the People's Republic of China have converted large areas of natural ecosystems and agricultural lands to urban uses. The size and rate of these land-use changes may affect local and regional climate, biogeochemistry, and food supply. To assess these impacts, both the amount of land converted and its relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. This research combines satellite remote sensing, which is used to monitor land conversion, with socioeconomic data to model the economic and demographic drivers of land-use change in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China. This research modifies existing techniques and develops new methods to assess the type, amount, and timing of land-use change from annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988 to 1996. During this period, most of the land-use change is conversion of agricultural land to urban areas. Results indicate that urban areas, increased by over 300% between 1988 and 1996. Field assessments confirm these results and indicate that the land-use change map is highly accurate at 93.5%. To use these data as inputs to statistical models, the year of land conversion derived from satellite imagery must be unbiased. A new method that uses time series techniques identifies the date at which land-use changes occur from a sequential series of TM images. The accuracy and bias of the dates of change identified compare favorably to a more conventional remote sensing change detection technique and may have the additional advantages of reducing efforts required to assemble training data and to correct for atmospheric effects. Data on the quantity of land-use change and the timing of these changes are used in conjunction with socioeconomic data to estimate statistical models that identify and quantify the demographic and economic changes on two types of land conversion: urbanization of agricultural land and urbanization of natural vegetation. Results
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Land Surface Model Biases and their Impacts on the Assimilation of Snow-related Observations
Arsenault, K. R.; Kumar, S.; Hunter, S. M.; Aman, R.; Houser, P. R.; Toll, D.; Engman, T.; Nigro, J.
2007-12-01
Some recent snow modeling studies have employed a wide range of assimilation methods to incorporate snow cover or other snow-related observations into different hydrological or land surface models. These methods often include taking both model and observation biases into account throughout the model integration. This study focuses more on diagnosing the model biases and presenting their subsequent impacts on assimilating snow observations and modeled snowmelt processes. In this study, the land surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM), is used within the Land Information System (LIS) modeling framework to show how such biases impact the assimilation of MODIS snow cover observations. Alternative in-situ and satellite-based observations are used to help guide the CLM LSM in better predicting snowpack conditions and more realistic timing of snowmelt for a western US mountainous region. Also, MODIS snow cover observation biases will be discussed, and validation results will be provided. The issues faced with inserting or assimilating MODIS snow cover at moderate spatial resolutions (like 1km or less) will be addressed, and the impacts on CLM will be presented.
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Reidsma, P.; Feng, S.; Loon, van M.; Luo, X.; Kang, C.; Lubbers, M.T.M.H.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Qu, F.
2012-01-01
Water pollution in Chinese lakes is a major problem. To reduce nutrient pollution and enhance sustainable development in Taihu Basin, China, an integrated assessment of the impacts of agricultural land use policies has been performed, using the technical coefficient generator TechnoGIN and the
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On Solid Ground: Science, Technology, and Integrated Land ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
The Commission's Panel on Integrated Land Management was convened to explore how science and technology could contribute to the overall discussion of land management as part of the review by the Commission on Sustainable Development of the follow-up to the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and ...
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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schmitz, Christoph [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald C. [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan); Gurgel, Angelo [Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV) (Brazil); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Canberra (Australia); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); Sands, Ronald [U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy); von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France); Wise, Marshall A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kavallari, Aikaterini [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
2013-12-10
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.
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Estes, Maurice G.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammed; Thom, Ron; Quattrochi, Dale; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellism Jean; Watson, Brian; Rodriguez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt
2009-01-01
vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.
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Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey
Baysal, Gülendam
2013-01-01
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies. This research was conducted to analyze the land use and land cover changes and to model the changes for the case study area Malatya, Turkey. The first step of the study was acquisition of multi temporal data in order to detect the changes over the time. For this purpose satellite images (Landsat 1990-2000-2010) have been used. In order to acquire data from satel...
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Selecting locations for landing of various formations of helicopters using spatial modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kovarik, V; Rybansky, M
2014-01-01
During crisis situations such as floods, landslides, humanitarian crisis and even military clashes there are situations when it is necessary to send helicopters to the crisis areas. To facilitate the process of searching for the sites suitable for landing, it is possible to use the tools of spatial modelling. The paper describes a procedure of selecting areas potentially suitable for landing of particular formations of helicopters. It lists natural and man-made terrain features that represent the obstacles that can prevent helicopters from landing. It also states specific requirements of the NATO documents that have to be respected when selecting the areas for landing. These requirements relate to a slope of ground and an obstruction angle on approach and exit paths. Creating the knowledge base and graphical models in ERDAS IMAGINE is then described. In the first step of the procedure the areas generally suitable for landing are selected. Then the different configurations of landing points that form the landing sites are created and corresponding outputs are generated. Finally, several tactical requirements are incorporated
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Data on strategically located land and spatially integrated urban human settlements in South Africa.
Musakwa, Walter
2017-12-01
In developing countries like South Africa processed geographic information systems (GIS) data on land suitability, is often not available for land use management. Data in this article is based on a published article "The strategically located land index support system for humans settlements land reform in South Africa" (Musakwa et al., 2017) [1]. This article utilities data from Musakwa et al. (2017) [1] and it goes on a step further by presenting the top 25th percentile of areas in the country that are strategically located and suited to develop spatially integrated human settlements. Furthermore the least 25th percentile of the country that are not strategically located and spatially integrated to establish human settlements are also presented. The article also presents the processed spatial datasets that where used to develop the strategically located land index as supplementary material. The data presented is meant to stir debate on spatially integrated human settlements in South Africa.
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Zenis, F. M.; Supian, S.; Lesmana, E.
2018-03-01
Land is one of the most important assets for farmers in Sumedang Regency. Therefore, agricultural land should be used optimally. This study aims to obtain the optimal land use composition in order to obtain maximum income. The optimization method used in this research is Linear Programming Models. Based on the results of the analysis, the composition of land use for rice area of 135.314 hectares, corn area of 11.798 hectares, soy area of 2.290 hectares, and peanuts of 2.818 hectares with the value of farmers income of IDR 2.682.020.000.000,-/year. The results of this analysis can be used as a consideration in decisions making about cropping patterns by farmers.
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Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.
1999-02-24
The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.
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Impacts of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Water Yield: A Case Study in Jing-Jin-Ji, China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suxiao Li
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Knowing the impact of land-use and land-cover (LULC changes on the distribution of water yield (WY is essential for water resource management. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST model, we investigated the spatial-temporal variations of WY from 1990 to 2015 in China’s northern semi-arid region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji. We quantified the combined effects of LULC dynamics and climatic variation on WY. Furthermore, we identified the relative contribution of main LULC types to WY. For our study region, the built-up area increased by 35.66% (5380 km2 during the study period. In the meantime, cropland, grassland, and wetland decreased continuously. The expansion of built-up area and decline of vegetated land led to an increase of 1047 million m3 (5.1% in total WY. The impacts of LULC changes on WY were mainly determined by the biophysical characteristics of LULC composition. Vegetated land has relatively lower WY coefficients due to higher rates of evapotranspiration and water infiltration. Built-up areas and bare land have higher WY coefficients as a result of their impermeable surface. The spatial-temporal analysis of WY with specification of WY coefficients by LULC types can facilitate integrated land-use planning and water resource management.
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Grid-based modeling for land use planning and environmental resource mapping.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kuiper, J. A.
1999-08-04
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is used by land managers and natural resource planners for examining resource distribution and conducting project planning, often by visually interpreting spatial data representing environmental or regulatory variables. Frequently, many variables influence the decision-making process, and modeling can improve results with even a small investment of time and effort. Presented are several grid-based GIS modeling projects, including: (1) land use optimization under environmental and regulatory constraints; (2) identification of suitable wetland mitigation sites; and (3) predictive mapping of prehistoric cultural resource sites. As different as the applications are, each follows a similar process of problem conceptualization, implementation of a practical grid-based GIS model, and evaluation of results.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian
2016-01-01
Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joreintje Dingena Mackenbach
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Physical activity has numerous physical and mental health benefits, and active commuting (walking or cycling to work can help meet physical activity recommendations. This study investigated socioeconomic differences in active commuting, and assessed the impact of urban land-use and public transport policies on active commuting in the Wellington region in New Zealand. We combined data from the New Zealand Household Travel Survey and GIS data on land-use and public transport facilities with the Wellington Integrated Land-Use, Transportation and Environment (WILUTE model, and forecasted changes in active commuter trips associated with changes in the built environment. Results indicated high income individuals were more likely to commute actively than individuals on low income. Several land-use and transportation factors were associated with active commuting and results from the modelling showed a potential increase in active commuting following an increase in bus frequency and parking fees. In conclusion, regional level policies stimulating environmental factors that directly or indirectly affect active commuting may be a promising strategy to increase population level physical activity. Access to, and frequency of, public transport in the neighbourhood can act as a facilitator for a more active lifestyle among its residents without negatively affecting disadvantaged groups.
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A Comparison of Two Land Use Simulation Models under the RCP4.5 Scenario in China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Feng Wu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The land use simulation model is an important tool to analyze the land use/land cover change (LUCC, which plays a key role in influencing the global warming. However, there have been very few global LUCC simulation models, especially the models that can be used to analyze the interaction among the socioeconomic development, climate change, and LUCC. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM and the GTAP-AEZ model are two models that take account of the influence of social economy and climate change at the global scale, but they may have some parameter errors due to the rough parameter setting. This study aims to compare the simulation results obtained with the GCAM model and GTAP-AEZ model and optimize their parameters according to the specific conditions of China. First, we simulated the land use structure in China in 2010 with the two models and compared the simulation results with the real one. Second, we calibrated these parameters of models according to the China’s national conditions and implemented the simulation again. The result indicates that the calibrated GCAM can provide more accurate simulation result of land use, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning and policy formulation to mitigate the climate change in China.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masanobu Kii
2014-03-01
This study demonstrates the applicability of a land-use transport model to the assessment of urban policies for building smart communities. First, we outline a model that explicitly formulates the actors' location-related decisions and travel behavior. Second, we apply this model to two urban policies – road pricing and land-use regulation – to assess their long-term impact on energy saving and sustainability using the case of a simplified synthetic city. Our study verifies that, under assumed conditions, the model has the capacity to assess urban policies on energy use and sustainability in a consistent fashion.
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Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models
Vliet, van J.; Bregt, A.K.; Hagen-Zanker, A.
2011-01-01
Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the
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Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model
Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.
2015-01-01
Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence
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Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin
2004-06-01
Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.
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Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun
2018-02-01
To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.
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Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dale, V.H.; Southworth, F.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.
1992-01-01
Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 , soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist's choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change
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Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0
Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko
2010-01-01
-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different
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Halyo, N.
1983-01-01
The design and development of a 3-D Digital Integrated Automatic Landing System (DIALS) for the Terminal Configured Vehicle (TCV) Research Aircraft, a B-737-100 is described. The system was designed using sampled data Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LOG) methods, resulting in a direct digital design with a modern control structure which consists of a Kalman filter followed by a control gain matrix, all operating at 10 Hz. DIALS uses Microwave Landing System (MLS) position, body-mounted accelerometers, as well as on-board sensors usually available on commercial aircraft, but does not use inertial platforms. The phases of the final approach considered are the localizer and glideslope capture which may be performed simultaneously, localizer and steep glideslope track or hold, crab/decrab and flare to touchdown. DIALS captures, tracks and flares from steep glideslopes ranging from 2.5 deg to 5.5 deg, selected prior to glideslope capture. Digital Integrated Automatic Landing System is the first modern control design automatic landing system successfully flight tested. The results of an initial nonlinear simulation are presented here.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdul Salam Soomro
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The terrible tsunami disaster, on 26 December 2004 hit Krabi, one of the ecotourist and very fascinating provinces of southern Thailand including its various regions e.g. Phangna and Phuket by devastating the human lives, coastal communications and the financially viable activities. This research study has been aimed to generate the tsunami hazard preventing based lands use planning model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems based on the hazard suitability analysis approach. The different triggering factors e.g. elevation, proximity to shore line, population density, mangrove, forest, stream and road have been used based on the land use zoning criteria. Those criteria have been used by using Saaty scale of importance one, of the mathematical techniques. This model has been classified according to the land suitability classification. The various techniques of GIS, namely subsetting, spatial analysis, map difference and data conversion have been used. The model has been generated with five categories such as high, moderate, low, very low and not suitable regions illustrating with their appropriate definition for the decision makers to redevelop the region.
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Tsunami hazard preventing based land use planing model using GIS technique in Muang Krabi, Thailand
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soormo, A.S.
2012-01-01
The terrible tsunami disaster, on 26 December 2004 hit Krabi, one of the ecotourist and very fascinating provinces of southern Thailand including its various regions e.g. Phangna and Phuket by devastating the human lives, coastal communications and the financially viable activities. This research study has been aimed to generate the tsunami hazard preventing based lands use planning model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) based on the hazard suitability analysis approach. The different triggering factors e.g. elevation, proximity to shore line, population density, mangrove, forest, stream and road have been used based on the land use zoning criteria. Those criteria have been used by using Saaty scale of importance one, of the mathematical techniques. This model has been classified according to the land suitability classification. The various techniques of GIS, namely subsetting, spatial analysis, map difference and data conversion have been used. The model has been generated with five categories such as high, moderate, low, very low and not suitable regions illustrating with their appropriate definition for the decision makers to redevelop the region. (author)
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Modelling the Effects of Land-Use Changes on Climate: a Case Study on Yamula DAM
Köylü, Ü.; Geymen, A.
2016-10-01
Dams block flow of rivers and cause artificial water reservoirs which affect the climate and the land use characteristics of the river basin. In this research, the effect of the huge water body obtained by Yamula Dam in Kızılırmak Basin is analysed over surrounding spatial's land use and climate change. Mann Kendal non-parametrical statistical test, Theil&Sen Slope method, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) methods are integrated for spatial and temporal analysis of the research area. For this research humidity, temperature, wind speed, precipitation observations which are collected in 16 weather stations nearby Kızılırmak Basin are analyzed. After that these statistical information is combined by GIS data over years. An application is developed for GIS analysis in Python Programming Language and integrated with ArcGIS software. Statistical analysis calculated in the R Project for Statistical Computing and integrated with developed application. According to the statistical analysis of extracted time series of meteorological parameters, statistical significant spatiotemporal trends are observed for climate change and land use characteristics. In this study, we indicated the effect of big dams in local climate on semi-arid Yamula Dam.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SANDA ROȘCA
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Application of Soil Loss Scenarios Using the ROMSEM Model Depending on Maximum Land Use Pretability Classes. A Case Study. Practicing a modern agriculture that takes into consideration the favourability conditions and the natural resources of a territory represents one of the main national objectives. Due to the importance of the agricultural land, which prevails among the land use types from the Niraj river basin, as well as the pedological and geomorphological characteristics, different areas where soil erosion is above the accepted thresholds were identified by applying the ROMSEM model. In order to do so, a GIS database was used, regrouping quantitative information regarding soil type, land use, climate and hydrogeology, used as indicators in the model. Estimations for the potential soil erosion have been made on the entire basin as well as on its subbasins. The essential role played by the morphometrical characteristics has also been highlighted (concavity, convexity, slope length etc.. Taking into account the strong agricultural characteristic of the analysed territory, the scoring method was employed for the identification of crop favourability in the case of wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, sugar beet, potato, soy and pea-bean. The results have been used as input data for the C coefficient (crop/vegetation and management factor in the ROMSEM model that was applied for the present land use conditions, as well as for other four scenarios depicting the land use types with maximum favourability. The theoretical, modelled values of the soil erosion were obtained dependent on land use, while the other variables of the model were kept constant.
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Strada, Susanna; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Perrin, Mathieu; Stefanon, Marc
2016-04-01
By modifying the Earth's natural landscapes, humans have introduced an imbalance in the Earth System's energy, water and emission fluxes via land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs). Through land-atmosphere interactions, LULCCs influence weather, air quality and climate at different scales, from regional/local (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Therefore, in the context of climate change, LULCCs will play a role locally/regionally in altering weather/atmospheric conditions. In addition to the global climate change impacts, LULCCs will possibly induce further changes in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and thereby affect adaptation strategies. If LULCCs influence weather/atmospheric conditions, could land use planning alter climate conditions and ease the impact of climate change by wisely shaping urban and rural landscapes? Nowadays, numerical land-atmosphere modelling allows to assess LULCC impacts at different scales (e.g., Marshall et al., 2003; de Noblet-Ducoudré et al., 2011). However, most scenarios of climate changes used to force impact models result from downscaling procedures that do not account for LULCCs (e.g., Jacob et al., 2014). Therefore, if numerical modelling may help in tackling the discussion about LULCCs, do existing LULCC scenarios encompass realistic changes in terms of land use planning? In the present study, we apply a surface model to compare projected LULCC scenarios over France and to assess their impacts on surface fluxes (i.e., water, heat and carbon dioxide fluxes) and on water and carbon storage in soils. To depict future LULCCs in France, we use RCP scenarios from the IPCC AR5 report (Moss et al., 2011). LULCCs encompassed in RCPs are discussed in terms of: (a) their impacts on water and energy balance over France, and (b) their feasibility in the framework of land use planning in France. This study is the first step to quantify the sensitivity of land
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Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.
Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke
2018-05-13
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.
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Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C
Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke
2018-05-01
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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Geurs, Karst Teunis; Zondag, Barry; de Jong, Gerard; de Bok, Michiel
2010-01-01
We examine the accessibility benefits associated with some land-use policy strategies for the Netherlands that anticipate on expected climate change. A disaggregate logsum accessibility measure using the Dutch national land-use/transport interaction model TIGRIS XL is used to compute changes in
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Panagos, Panagos; Christos, Karydas; Cristiano, Ballabio; Ioannis, Gitas
2014-04-01
A new soil erosion model, namely G2, was applied in the island of Crete with a focus on agricultural land uses, including potential grazing lands. The G2 model was developed within the Geoland2 project as an agro-environmental service in the framework of the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES, now Copernicus) initiative. The G2 model takes advantage of the empirical background of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the Gavrilovic model, together with readily available time series of vegetation layers and 10-min rainfall intensity data to produce monthly time-step erosion risk maps at 300 m cell size. The innovations of the G2 model include the implementation of land-use influence parameters based on empirical data and the introduction of a corrective term in the estimation of the topographic influence factor. The mean annual erosion rate in Crete was found to be 8.123 t ha-1. The season from October to January (the rainy season in Crete) was found to be the most critical, accounting for 80% of the annual erosion in the island. Seasonal erosion figures proved to be crucial for the identification of erosion hotspots and of risky land uses. In Crete, high annual erosion figures were detected in natural grasslands and shrublands (14.023 t ha-1), mainly due to the intensification of livestock grazing during the past decades. The G2 model allows for the integrated spatio-temporal monitoring of soil erosion per land-use type based on moderate data input requirements and existing datasets.
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Evaluation of Landscape Impacts and Land Use Change: a Tuscan Case Study for CAP Reform Scenarios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iacopo Bernetti
2010-07-01
Full Text Available The study uses information from different sources and on different scales in an integrated set of models in order to analyze possible land use change scenarios arising in response to CAP reform. Five main steps were followed: (1 analysis of past land use changes, (2 multivariate analysis of future land use changes using a neural network time series forecast model (Multi-Layer Perceptron Method, (3 modelization of land use change demand (Markovian Chains Method, (4 allocation of the demand to define transition localization, (5 definition of policy scenarios. The final stage is the comparison of CAP scenarios using a multicriteria decision making approach, in order to supply valuable information to policy makers regarding the possible local effects of key direction changes in CAP.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kostyantyn Mamonov
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The areas of need for ways of modeling the formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS are identified. The article is to define the areas of modeling ways of formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS. In the study, the following objectives are set: to develop an algorithm process data base (Data System creation for pecuniary valuation of land settlements with the use of GIS; to offer process model taking into account the influence of one factor modules using geographic information systems; to identify components of geo providing expert money evaluation of land metropolis; to describe the general procedure for expert money assessment of land and property by using geographic information system software; to develop an algorithm methods for expert evaluation of land. Identified tools built algorithms used for modeling the ways of formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS. Directions ways of modeling the formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS.
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Liu, P. W.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.; Reager, J. T., II; David, C. H.; Kumar, S.; Li, B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.
2017-12-01
Soil moisture is one of the critical factors in terrestrial hydrology. Accurate soil moisture information improves estimation of terrestrial water storage and fluxes, that is essential for water resource management including sustainable groundwater pumping and agricultural irrigation practices. It is particularly important during dry periods when water stress is high. The Western States Water Mission (WSWM), a multiyear mission project of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is operated to understand and estimate quantities of the water availability in the western United States by integrating observations and measurements from in-situ and remote sensing sensors, and hydrological models. WSWM data products have been used to assess and explore the adverse impacts of the California drought (2011-2016) and provide decision-makers information for water use planning. Although the observations are often more accurate, simulations using land surface models can provide water availability estimates at desired spatio-temporal scales. The Land Information System (LIS), developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, integrates developed land surface models and data processing and management tools, that enables to utilize the measurements and observations from various platforms as forcings in the high performance computing environment to forecast the hydrologic conditions. The goal of this study is to implement the LIS in the western United States for estimates of soil moisture. We will implement the NOAH-MP model at the 12km North America Land Data Assimilation System grid and compare to other land surface models included in the LIS. Findings will provide insight into the differences between model estimates and model physics. Outputs from a multi-model ensemble from LIS can also be used to enhance estimated reliability and provide quantification of uncertainty. We will compare the LIS-based soil moisture estimates to the SMAP enhanced 9 km soil moisture product to understand the
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Improving the Fit of a Land-Surface Model to Data Using its Adjoint
Raoult, N.; Jupp, T. E.; Cox, P. M.; Luke, C.
2015-12-01
Land-surface models (LSMs) are of growing importance in the world of climate prediction. They are crucial components of larger Earth system models that are aimed at understanding the effects of land surface processes on the global carbon cycle. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used by the UK Met Office. It has been automatically differentiated using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or 'adjoint', of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed, to search for locally optimum parameter sets by calibrating against observations. adJULES presents an opportunity to confront JULES with many different observations, and make improvements to the model parameterisation. In the newest version of adJULES, multiple sites can be used in the calibration, to giving a generic set of parameters that can be generalised over plant functional types. We present an introduction to the adJULES system and its applications to data from a variety of flux tower sites. We show that calculation of the 2nd derivative of JULES allows us to produce posterior probability density functions of the parameters and how knowledge of parameter values is constrained by observations.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vezzaro, Luca; Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Ledin, Anna
2015-01-01
(copper, zinc) and organic compounds (fluoranthene). MP fluxes were estimated by using an integrated dynamic model, in combination with stormwater quality measurements. MP sources were identified by using GIS land usage data, runoff quality was simulated by using a conceptual accumulation/washoff model......The estimation of micropollutant (MP) fluxes in stormwater systems is a fundamental prerequisite when preparing strategies to reduce stormwater MP discharges to natural waters. Dynamic integrated models can be important tools in this step, as they can be used to integrate the limited data provided...... by monitoring campaigns and to evaluate the performance of different strategies based on model simulation results. This study presents an example where six different control strategies, including both source-control and end-of-pipe treatment, were compared. The comparison focused on fluxes of heavy metals...
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Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas
2018-05-01
Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright
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Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States
Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.
2008-01-01
A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario
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Land use planning for forest catchment of Arasbaran
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dehdar Dargahi, M.; Makhdoum, M.F.
2001-01-01
In this study, land use planning for six hydrological units (296690 ha) of Arasbaran forest catchment (N W of Iran in Azerbaijan) has been conducted. The main objectives of the plan were to promote sustainable use, to increase living conditions, and enhance environmental conservation in the region. First, ecological and socio-economic resources were surveyed and mapped (scale 1:50000). Then data analysis and integration with system analysis approach were performed. As a result, 3556 micro-ecosystems were mapped. Ecological capability of mapping unit (MU) was evaluated for: agriculture, range management, forestry, eco tourism and conservation with the aid of specified ecological models. Finally with coordination of socioeconomic data and ecological capability of MU, priority of land uses with qualitative-analogous method was established. At the end, map of land use planning for six hydrological units was depicted for management purposes. The results show that %5.38 of allocated land use is suitable for irrigation farming, %1.32 for dry farming, %17.43 for range management, %15.17 for protected forestry, %2.13 for forest plantation, %28.47 for extensive eco tourism, %0.01 for intensive eco tourism and finally %30.09 for conservation
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Integration of land use and land cover inventories for landscape management and planning in Italy.
Sallustio, Lorenzo; Munafò, Michele; Riitano, Nicola; Lasserre, Bruno; Fattorini, Lorenzo; Marchetti, Marco
2016-01-01
There are both semantic and technical differences between land use (LU) and land cover (LC) measurements. In cartographic approaches, these differences are often neglected, giving rise to a hybrid classification. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding and characterization of the two classification schemes using a comparison that allows maximization of the informative power of both. The analysis was carried out in the Molise region (Central Italy) using sample information from the Italian Land Use Inventory (IUTI). The sampling points were classified with a visual interpretation of aerial photographs for both LU and LC in order to estimate surfaces and assess the changes that occurred between 2000 and 2012. The results underscore the polarization of land use and land cover changes resulting from the following: (a) recolonization of natural surfaces, (b) strong dynamisms between the LC classes in the natural and semi-natural domain and (c) urban sprawl on the lower hills and plains. Most of the observed transitions are attributable to decreases in croplands, natural grasslands and pastures, owing to agricultural abandonment. The results demonstrate that a comparison between LU and LC estimates and their changes provides an understanding of the causes of misalignment between the two criteria. Such information may be useful for planning policies in both natural and semi-natural contexts as well as in urban areas.
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Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huiran Han
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.
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Reinsch, Sabine; Glanville, Helen; Smart, Simon; Jones, Davey; Mercado, Lina; Blanes-Alberola, Mamen; Cosby, Jack; Emmett, Bridget
2016-04-01
The coupling of C, N and P cycles has rarely been studied through the air- land-water continuum. This is essential if we are to enhance land-atmosphere models to account for N and P limitations. It is also important for developing integrated catchment management solutions to deliver improved water quality combined with a wide range of other ecosystem functions and services. We present results from a project which is part of the interdisciplinary pan-UK NERC Macronutrient Cycles Programme (macronutrient-cycles.ouce.ox.ac.uk/). Our aim is to quantify how coupled C, N & P cycles change across a land use intensification gradient from arable to grass, woodland and bog ecosystems and identify the implications for land-atmosphere C exchange. We focus on three key processes; photosynthesis, annual net primary productivity and decomposition and explore their consequences for biodiversity. Other aspects of the project track delivery to, and transformations within, the freshwater and coastal systems. When we explore relationships between C, N and P, results indicate all habitat types fall on a single land use intensification gradient. Stoichiometry suggests plant productivity is primarily N limited. P limitation occurs rarely but at all levels of intensification. Soil priming shows our soils are primarily C limited and, surprisingly, soil acidity provides one of the most powerful single predictors of processes and ecosystem services perhaps as it is a good integrator of many soil properties. Incorporating this knowledge into the UK land-atmosphere model JULES will improve aNPP projections. These are then being used as inputs into a plant species model called MULTIMOVE to enable future scenarios of climate change, land use and air pollution on habitat suitability for > 1400 plant species to be explored. The enhanced Jules model will ensure both N and P limitations on C fluxes from above and below-ground are incorporated into future UK scenario applications.
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Soil Carbon Mapping in Low Relief Areas with Combined Land Use Types and Percentages
Liu, Y. L.; Wu, Z. H.; Chen, Y. Y.; Wang, B. Z.
2018-05-01
Accurate mapping of soil carbon in low relief areas is of great challenge because of the defect of conventional "soil-landscape" model. Efforts have been made to integrate the land use information in the modelling and mapping of soil organic carbon (SOC), in which the spatial context was ignored. With 256 topsoil samples collected from Jianghan Plain, we aim to (i) explore the land-use dependency of SOC via one-way ANOVA; (ii) investigate the "spillover effect" of land use on SOC content; (iii) examine the feasibility of land use types and percentages (obtained with a 200-meter buffer) for soil mapping via regression Kriging (RK) models. Results showed that the SOC of paddy fields was higher than that of woodlands and irrigated lands. The land use type could explain 20.5 % variation of the SOC, and the value increased to 24.7 % when the land use percentages were considered. SOC was positively correlated with the percentage of water area and irrigation canals. Further research indicated that SOC of irrigated lands was significantly correlated with the percentage of water area and irrigation canals, while paddy fields and woodlands did not show similar trends. RK model that combined land use types and percentages outperformed the other models with the lowest values of RMSEC (5.644 g/kg) and RMSEP (6.229 g/kg), and the highest R2C (0.193) and R2P (0.197). In conclusions, land use types and percentages serve as efficient indicators for the SOC mapping in plain areas. Additionally, irrigation facilities contributed to the farmland SOC sequestration especially in irrigated lands.
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Tate, Z.; Dusenge, D.; Elliot, T. S.; Hafashimana, P.; Medley, S.; Porter, R. P.; Rajappan, R.; Rodriguez, P.; Spangler, J.; Swaminathan, R. S.; VanGundy, R. D.
2014-12-01
The majority of the population in southwest Virginia depends economically on coal mining. In 2011, coal mining generated $2,000,000 in tax revenue to Wise County alone. However, surface mining completely removes land cover and leaves the land exposed to erosion. The destruction of the forest cover directly impacts local species, as some are displaced and others perish in the mining process. Even though surface mining has a negative impact on the environment, land reclamation efforts are in place to either restore mined areas to their natural vegetated state or to transform these areas for economic purposes. This project aimed to monitor the progress of land reclamation and the effect on the return of local species. By incorporating NASA Earth observations, such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), re-vegetation process in reclamation sites was estimated through a Time series analysis using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A continuous source of cloud free images was accomplished by utilizing the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STAR-FM). This model developed synthetic Landsat imagery by integrating the high-frequency temporal information from Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and high-resolution spatial information from Landsat sensors In addition, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxENT), an eco-niche model was used to estimate the adaptation of animal species to the newly formed habitats. By combining factors such as land type, precipitation from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and slope from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the MaxENT model produced a statistical analysis on the probability of species habitat. Altogether, the project compiled the ecological information which can be used to identify suitable habitats for local species in reclaimed mined areas.
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How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?
Sterk, B.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Leeuwis, C.
2011-01-01
This paper reports and reflects on the contributions of land use models to societal problem solving. Its purpose is to inform model development and application and thus to increase chances for societal benefit of the modelling work. The key question is: How, when, and for what reasons does land use
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Jiménez-Esteve, B.; Udina, M.; Soler, M. R.; Pepin, N.; Miró, J. R.
2018-04-01
Different types of land use (LU) have different physical properties which can change local energy balance and hence vertical fluxes of moisture, heat and momentum. This in turn leads to changes in near-surface temperature and moisture fields. Simulating atmospheric flow over complex terrain requires accurate local-scale energy balance and therefore model grid spacing must be sufficient to represent both topography and land-use. In this study we use both the Corine Land Cover (CLC) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) land use databases for use with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and evaluate the importance of both land-use classification and horizontal resolution in contributing to successful modelling of surface temperatures and humidities observed from a network of 39 sensors over a 9 day period in summer 2013. We examine case studies of the effects of thermal inertia and soil moisture availability at individual locations. The scale at which the LU classification is observed influences the success of the model in reproducing observed patterns of temperature and moisture. Statistical validation of model output demonstrates model sensitivity to both the choice of LU database used and the horizontal resolution. In general, results show that on average, by a) using CLC instead of USGS and/or b) increasing horizontal resolution, model performance is improved. We also show that the sensitivity to these changes in the model performance shows a daily cycle.
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Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100
Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S. E.; Fisk, J.; Bodirsky, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heinimann, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krisztin, T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lawrence, P.; Mertz, O.; Popp, A.; Riahi, K.; Stehfest, E.; van Vuuren, D.; de Waal, L.; Zhang, X.
2016-12-01
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESM) able to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, a new set of historical data based on HYDE, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are being developed as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, and key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off the approach from CMIP5, and is provided at higher resolution (0.25x0.25 degree), over longer time domain (850-2100), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management), using more inputs (including Landsat data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain >50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the
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Land-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Navin Ramankutty
2016-06-01
Full Text Available A key research frontier in global change research lies in understanding processes of land change to inform predictive models of future land states. We believe that significant advances in the field are hampered by limited attention being paid to critical points of change termed land-use regime shifts. We present an analytical framework for understanding land-use regime shifts. We survey historical events of land change and perform in-depth case studies of soy and shrimp development in Latin America to demonstrate the role of preconditions, triggers, and self-reinforcing processes in driving land-use regime shifts. Whereas the land-use literature demonstrates a good understanding of within-regime dynamics, our understanding of the drivers of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explications. Theoretical and empirical advances are needed to better understand the dynamics and implications of land-use regime shifts. We draw insights from the regime-shifts literature to propose a research agenda for studying land change.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salomon Obahoundje
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The Bui hydropower plant plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. This paper attempt to explore the combined effects of climate-land use land cover change on power production using the (WEAP model: Water Evaluation and Planning system. The historical analysis of rainfall and stream flow variability showed that the annual coefficient of variation of rainfall and stream flow are, respectively, 8.6% and 60.85%. The stream flow varied greatly than the rainfall, due to land use land cover changes (LULC. In fact, the LULC analysis revealed important changes in vegetative areas and water bodies. The WEAP model evaluation showed that combined effects of LULC and climate change reduce water availability for all of demand sectors, including hydropower generation at the Bui hydropower plant. However, it was projected that Bui power production will increase by 40.7% and 24.93%, respectively, under wet and adaptation conditions, and decrease by 46% and 2.5%, respectively, under dry and current conditions. The wet condition is defined as an increase in rainfall by 14%, the dry condition as the decrease in rainfall by 15%; current account is business as usual, and the adaptation is as the efficient use of water for the period 2012–2040.
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MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF LAND-USE CHANGES ON CLIMATE: A CASE STUDY ON YAMULA DAM
Ü. Köylü; A. Geymen
2016-01-01
Dams block flow of rivers and cause artificial water reservoirs which affect the climate and the land use characteristics of the river basin. In this research, the effect of the huge water body obtained by Yamula Dam in Kızılırmak Basin is analysed over surrounding spatial’s land use and climate change. Mann Kendal non-parametrical statistical test, Theil&Sen Slope method, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) methods are integrated for spa...
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OPAL Netlogo Land Condition Model
2014-08-15
ER D C/ CE RL T R- 14 -1 2 Optimal Allocation of Land for Training and Non-training Uses ( OPAL ) OPAL Netlogo Land Condition Model...Fulton, Natalie Myers, Scott Tweddale, Dick Gebhart, Ryan Busby, Anne Dain-Owens, and Heidi Howard August 2014 OPAL team measuring above and...online library at http://acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. Optimal Allocation of Land for Training and Non-training Uses ( OPAL ) ERDC/CERL TR-14-12
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosli, M.H.
2017-07-01
Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0
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Model Bera dalam Sistem Agroforestri (Fallow Land Model in Agroforestry Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Priyono Suryanto
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The development of tree-based agroforestry model gives consequences to the space utilization dominated by trees. Farmers take action on this condition by conniving the fallow land. This research was aimed to know the fallow land model, find the key parameters of fallow land model, and formulating the management of fallow land. The spatial model of agroforestry used in this research were trees along border, alley cropping, alternate rows and mixer. The actual data obtained were tree height, tree diameter, crown diameter, land width, and light intensity; the calculated data were land extent, the percentage of crown cover and crown density. The analysis used to determining the percentage of crown cover to calculate the affective arable land area was zone system. Zonation system maked for four zone : 1 zone 1 interval 0-1 m ; 2 zone 2 interval 1-2 m; zone 3 interval 2-3 m; zone 4 interval 3-4m.Key words: agroforestry, fallow land, silviculture, land cover, resource sharing, crown dynamic
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
None
2011-07-01
This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.
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Evaluation of Intensive Construction Land Use in the Emerging City Based on PSR-Entropy model
Jia, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guangyu
2018-01-01
A comprehensive understanding of emerging city land utilization and the evaluation of intensive land use in the Emerging City will provide the comprehensive and reliable technical basis for the planning and management. It is an important node. According to the Han cheng from 2008 to 2016 years of land use, based on PSR-Entropy model of land use evaluation system, using entropy method to determine the index weight, the introduction of comprehensive index method to evaluate the degree of land use. The results show that the intensive land use comprehensive evaluation index of Han cheng increased from 2008 to 2015, but the land intensive use can not achieve the standards. The potential of further enhancing space is relatively large.
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Wegehenkel, Martin
As a result of a new agricultural funding policy established in 1992 by the European Community, it was assumed that up to 15-20% of arable land would have been set aside in the next years in the new federal states of north-eastern Germany, for example, Brandenburg. As one potential land use option, afforestation of these set aside areas was discussed to obtain deciduous forests. Since the mean annual precipitation in north-eastern Germany, Brandenburg is relatively low (480-530 mm y -1), an increase in interception and evapotranspiration loss by forests compared to arable land would lead to a reduction in ground water recharge. Experimental evidence to determine effects of such land use changes are rarely available. Therefore, there is a need for indirect methods to estimate the impact of afforestation on the water balance of catchments. In this paper, a conceptual hydrological model was verified and calibrated in two steps using data from the Stobber-catchment located in Brandenburg. In the first step, model outputs like daily evapotranspiration rates and soil water contents were verified on the basis of experimental data sets from two test locations. One test site with the land use arable land was located within the Stobber-catchment. The other test site with pine forest was located near by the catchment. In the second step, the model was used to estimate the impact of afforestation on catchment water balance and discharge. For that purpose, the model was calibrated against daily discharge measurements for the period 1995-1997. For a simple afforestation scenario, it was assumed that the area of forest increases from 34% up to 80% of the catchment area. The impact of this change in forest cover proportion was analyzed using the calibrated model. In case of increasing the proportion of forest cover in the catchment due to the scenario afforestation, the model predicts a reduction in discharge and an increase in evapotranspiration.
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Meshgi, Ali; Schmitter, Petra; Chui, Ting Fong May; Babovic, Vladan
2015-06-01
module revealed average runoff coefficients between 0.12 and 0.80 for the various land uses and decreased from impervious (0.80), grass on steep slopes (0.56), grass on mild slopes (0.48), mixed grasses and trees (0.42) to relatively natural vegetation (0.12). The established modular model, reflecting the driving hydrological processes, enables the quantification of land use specific contributions towards the baseflow and quickflow components. This quantification facilitates the integration of water sensitive urban infrastructure for the sustainable development of water in tropical megacities.
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Henson, W.; Baillie, M. N.; Martin, D.
2017-12-01
Detailed and dynamic land-use data is one of the biggest data deficiencies facing food and water security issues. Better land-use data results in improved integrated hydrologic models that are needed to look at the feedback between land and water use, specifically for adequately representing changes and dynamics in rainfall-runoff, urban and agricultural water demands, and surface fluxes of water (e.g., evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration). Currently, land-use data typically are compiled from annual (e.g., Crop Scape) or multi-year composites if mapped at all. While this approach provides information about interannual land-use practices, it does not capture the dynamic changes in highly developed agricultural lands prevalent in California agriculture such as (1) dynamic land-use changes from high frequency multi-crop rotations and (2) uncertainty in sub-annual crop distribution, planting times, and cropped areas. California has collected spatially distributed data for agricultural pesticide use since 1974 through the California Pesticide Information Portal (CalPIP). A method leveraging the CalPIP database has been developed to provide vital information about dynamic agricultural land use (e.g., crop distribution and planting times) and water demand issues in Salinas Valley, California, along the central coast. This 7 billion dollar/year agricultural area produces up to 50% of U.S. lettuce and broccoli. Therefore, effective and sustainable water resource development in the area must balance the needs of this essential industry, other beneficial uses, and the environment. This new tool provides a way to provide more dynamic crop data in hydrologic models. While the current application focuses on the Salinas Valley, the methods are extensible to all of California and other states with similar pesticide reporting. The improvements in representing variability in crop patterns and associated water demands increase our understanding of land-use change and
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Fatt Siew, Tuck; Döll, Petra
2015-04-01
Transdisciplinary approaches are useful for supporting integrated land and water management. However, the implementation of the approach in practice to facilitate the co-production of useable socio-hydrological (and -ecological) knowledge among scientists and stakeholders is challenging. It requires appropriate methods to bring individuals with diverse interests and needs together and to integrate their knowledge for generating shared perspectives/understanding, identifying common goals, and developing actionable management strategies. The approach and the methods need, particularly, to be adapted to the local political and socio-cultural conditions. To demonstrate how knowledge co-production and integration can be done in practice, we present a transdisciplinary approach which has been implemented and adapted for supporting land and water management that takes ecosystem services into account in an arid region in northwestern China. Our approach comprises three steps: (1) stakeholder analysis and interdisciplinary knowledge integration, (2) elicitation of perspectives of scientists and stakeholders, scenario development, and identification of management strategies, and (3) evaluation of knowledge integration and social learning. Our adapted approach has enabled interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral communication among scientists and stakeholders. Furthermore, the application of a combination of participatory methods, including actor modeling, Bayesian Network modeling, and participatory scenario development, has contributed to the integration of system, target, and transformation knowledge of involved stakeholders. The realization of identified management strategies is unknown because other important and representative decision makers have not been involved in the transdisciplinary research process. The contribution of our transdisciplinary approach to social learning still needs to be assessed.
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Li, Siyue; Zhang, Quanfa
2011-06-15
Water samples were collected for determination of dissolved trace metals in 56 sampling sites throughout the upper Han River, China. Multivariate statistical analyses including correlation analysis, stepwise multiple linear regression models, and principal component and factor analysis (PCA/FA) were employed to examine the land use influences on trace metals, and a receptor model of factor analysis-multiple linear regression (FA-MLR) was used for source identification/apportionment of anthropogenic heavy metals in the surface water of the River. Our results revealed that land use was an important factor in water metals in the snow melt flow period and land use in the riparian zone was not a better predictor of metals than land use away from the river. Urbanization in a watershed and vegetation along river networks could better explain metals, and agriculture, regardless of its relative location, however slightly explained metal variables in the upper Han River. FA-MLR analysis identified five source types of metals, and mining, fossil fuel combustion, and vehicle exhaust were the dominant pollutions in the surface waters. The results demonstrated great impacts of human activities on metal concentrations in the subtropical river of China. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Land-Use and Land-Cover Mapping Using a Gradable Classification Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Keigo Kitada
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Conventional spectral-based classification methods have significant limitations in the digital classification of urban land-use and land-cover classes from high-resolution remotely sensed data because of the lack of consideration given to the spatial properties of images. To recognize the complex distribution of urban features in high-resolution image data, texture information consisting of a group of pixels should be considered. Lacunarity is an index used to characterize different texture appearances. It is often reported that the land-use and land-cover in urban areas can be effectively classified using the lacunarity index with high-resolution images. However, the applicability of the maximum-likelihood approach for hybrid analysis has not been reported. A more effective approach that employs the original spectral data and lacunarity index can be expected to improve the accuracy of the classification. A new classification procedure referred to as “gradable classification method” is proposed in this study. This method improves the classification accuracy in incremental steps. The proposed classification approach integrates several classification maps created from original images and lacunarity maps, which consist of lacnarity values, to create a new classification map. The results of this study confirm the suitability of the gradable classification approach, which produced a higher overall accuracy (68% and kappa coefficient (0.64 than those (65% and 0.60, respectively obtained with the maximum-likelihood approach.
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Machine Learning Techniques for Modelling Short Term Land-Use Change
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mileva Samardžić-Petrović
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The representation of land use change (LUC is often achieved by using data-driven methods that include machine learning (ML techniques. The main objectives of this research study are to implement three ML techniques, Decision Trees (DT, Neural Networks (NN, and Support Vector Machines (SVM for LUC modeling, in order to compare these three ML techniques and to find the appropriate data representation. The ML techniques are applied on the case study of LUC in three municipalities of the City of Belgrade, the Republic of Serbia, using historical geospatial data sets and considering nine land use classes. The ML models were built and assessed using two different time intervals. The information gain ranking technique and the recursive attribute elimination procedure were implemented to find the most informative attributes that were related to LUC in the study area. The results indicate that all three ML techniques can be used effectively for short-term forecasting of LUC, but the SVM achieved the highest agreement of predicted changes.
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Using Land Surface Phenology to Detect Land Use Change in the Northern Great Plains
Nguyen, L. H.; Henebry, G. M.
2017-12-01
The Northern Great Plains of the US have been undergoing many types of land cover / land use change over the past two decades, including expansion of irrigation, conversion of grassland to cropland, biofuels production, urbanization, and fossil fuel mining. Much of the literature on these changes has relied on post-classification change detection based on a limited number of observations per year. Here we demonstrate an approach to characterize land dynamics through land surface phenology (LSP) by synergistic use of image time series at two scales. Our study areas include regions of interest (ROIs) across the Northern Great Plains located within Landsat path overlap zones to boost the number of valid observations (free of clouds or snow) each year. We first compute accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) from MODIS 8-day composites of land surface temperature (MOD11A2 and MYD11A2). Using Landsat Collection 1 surface reflectance-derived vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI), we then fit at each pixel a downward convex quadratic model linking the vegetation index to each year's progression of AGDD. This quadratic equation exhibits linearity in a mathematical sense; thus, the fitted models can be linearly mixed and unmixed using a set of LSP endmembers (defined by the fitted parameter coefficients of the quadratic model) that represent "pure" land cover types with distinct seasonal patterns found within the region, such as winter wheat, spring wheat, maize, soybean, sunflower, hay/pasture/grassland, developed/built-up, among others. Information about land cover corresponding to each endmember are provided by the NLCD (National Land Cover Dataset) and CDL (Cropland Data Layer). We use linear unmixing to estimate the likely proportion of each LSP endmember within particular areas stratified by latitude. By tracking the proportions over the 2001-2011 period, we can quantify various types of land transitions in the Northern Great Plains.
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Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use
Chuwah, C.D.; Noije, van Twan; Vuuren, van Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Hazeleger, Wilco
2015-01-01
Exposure to surface ozone has detrimental impacts on vegetation and crop yields. In this study, we estimate ozone impacts on crop production and subsequent impacts on land use in the 2005-2050 period using results of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry and IMAGE integrated assessment model. For the
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Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use
Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Hazeleger, Wilco
2015-01-01
Exposure to surface ozone has detrimental impacts on vegetation and crop yields. In this study, we estimate ozone impacts on crop production and subsequent impacts on land use in the 2005-2050 period using results of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry and IMAGE integrated assessment model. For the crops
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What did the Romans ever do for us? Putting humans in global land models
Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.; Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.
2016-12-01
During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We identify four major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling and thus prohibit realistic projections of the future terrestrial water cycle in the Anthropocene. These are: 1) including the ability to model infrastructural changes and measures; 2) projecting future water demand and water use and associated measures; 3) including virtual water trade; 4) including land use change and landscape change. While all these challenges will likely benefit from hydro-economics and the newly developing field of socio-hydrology, we also show that especially for challenges 3 and 4 lessons can be drawn from the (pre)historic past. To make this point we provide two case studies: one modelling the virtual water trade in the Roman Empire and one modelling human-landscape interaction in prehistoric Calabria (Italy).
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Prediction of Land Use Change in Long Island Sound Watersheds Using Nighttime Light Data
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Ruiting Zhai
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The Long Island Sound Watersheds (LISW are experiencing significant land use/cover change (LUCC, which affects the environment and ecosystems in the watersheds through water pollution, carbon emissions, and loss of wildlife. LUCC modeling is an important approach to understanding what has happened in the landscape and what may change in the future. Moreover, prospective modeling can provide sustainable and efficient decision support for land planning and environmental management. This paper modeled the LUCCs between 1996, 2001 and 2006 in the LISW in the New England region, which experienced an increase in developed area and a decrease of forest. The low-density development pattern played an important role in the loss of forest and the expansion of urban areas. The key driving forces were distance to developed areas, distance to roads, and social-economic drivers, such as nighttime light intensity and population density. In addition, this paper compared and evaluated two integrated LUCC models—the logistic regression–Markov chain model and the multi-layer perception–Markov chain (MLP–MC model. Both models achieved high accuracy in prediction, but the MLP–MC model performed slightly better. Finally, a land use map for 2026 was predicted by using the MLP–MC model, and it indicates the continued loss of forest and increase of developed area.
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Impact of Land Use Land Cover Change on East Asian monsoon
Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.; Liu, Y.; Lee, J.
2017-12-01
Humans modify the Earth's terrestrial surface on a continental scale by removing natural vegetation for crops/grazing. The current rates, extents and intensities of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) are greater than ever in history. The earlier studies of Land-atmosphere interactions used specified land surface conditions without interannual variations. In this study using NCEP CFSv2 coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, biogeophysical impacts of LULCC on climate variability, anomaly, and changes are investigated by using the LULCC map from the Hurtt et al. (2006, 2011), which covered 66 years from 1950-2015 with annual variability. We combined the changes in crop and pasture fractions and consider as LULCC. A methodology had been developed to convert the Hurtt LULCC change map with 1° resolution to the GCM grid points. Since the GCM has only one dominant type, when the crop and pasture frction value at one point was larger than the critical value, that grid was assigned as degraded. Comprehensive evaluation was conducted to ensure the consistence of the trend of land degradation in the Hurtt's map and in the GCM LULCC map. In the degraded point, trees were changed to low vegetation or grasses, and low vegetation to bare soil. A set of surface parameters such as leaf area index, vegetation height, roughness length, and soil parameters, associated with vegetation are changed to show the degradation effects. We integrated the model with the potential vegetation map and the map with LULCC from 1950 to 2015, and the results indicate the LULCC causes precipitation reduction globally, with the strongest signals over monsoon regions. For instance, the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produced significant precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. Meanwhile, it has also found that the LULCC enhances the surface warming during the summer in monsoon
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Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation
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Paul L. G. Vlek
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Land provides a host of ecosystem services, of which the provisioning services are often considered paramount. As the demand for agricultural products multiplies, other ecosystem services are being degraded or lost entirely. Finding a sustainable trade-off between food production and one or more of other ecosystem services, given the variety of stakeholders, is a matter of optimizing land use in a dynamic and complex socio-ecological system. Land degradation reduces our options to meet both food demands and environmental needs. In order to illustrate this trade-off dilemma, four representative services, carbon sinks, water storage, biodiversity, and space for urbanization, are discussed here based on a review of contemporary literature that cuts across the domain of ecosystem services that are provided by land. Agricultural research will have to expand its focus from the field to the landscape level and in the process examine the cost of production that internalizes environmental costs. In some situations, the public cost of agriculture in marginal environments outweighs the private gains, even with the best technologies in place. Land use and city planners will increasingly have to address the cost of occupying productive agricultural land or the conversion of natural habitats. Landscape designs and urban planning should aim for the preservation of agricultural land and the integrated management of land resources by closing water and nutrient cycles, and by restoring biodiversity.
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Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.
Reilly, John; Melillo, Jerry; Cai, Yongxia; Kicklighter, David; Gurgel, Angelo; Paltsev, Sergey; Cronin, Timothy; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam
2012-06-05
Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.
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Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. P. W. Jewitt
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows
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Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies
Warburton, M. L.; Schulze, R. E.; Jewitt, G. P. W.
2010-12-01
The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows of the three selected
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J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow
2014-01-01
: We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...
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Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Goetz, Scott J.; Bockstael, Nancy E.; Jantz, Claire A.
2005-01-01
This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has
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Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wendt, P F [ed.
1976-01-01
Chapter titles include: introduction and overview; national and regional econometric models; growth and change in the Georgia regional economies; a Delphi approach to land use forecasting; land suitability and land use analysis; the interaction of transportation and land use; and, summary and conclusions. Lists of tables and figures are also included. (JGB)
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Yira, Y.; Diekkrüger, B.; Steup, G.; Bossa, A. Y.
2016-06-01
This study investigates the impacts of land use change on water resources in the Dano catchment, Burkina Faso, using a physically based hydrological simulation model and land use scenarios. Land use dynamic in the catchment was assessed through the analysis of four land use maps corresponding to the land use status in 1990, 2000, 2007, and 2013. A reclassification procedure levels out differences between the classification schemes of the four maps. The land use maps were used to build five land use scenarios corresponding to different levels of land use change in the catchment. Water balance was simulated by applying the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) using observed discharge, soil moisture, and groundwater level for model calibration and validation. Model statistical quality measures (R2, NSE and KGE) achieved during calibration and validation ranged between 0.6 and 0.9 for total discharge, soil moisture, and groundwater level, indicating a good agreement between observed and simulated variables. After a successful multivariate validation the model was applied to the land use scenarios. The land use assessment exhibited a decrease of savannah at an annual rate of 2% since 1990. Conversely, cropland and urban areas have increased. Since urban areas occupy only 3% of the catchment it can be assumed that savannah was mainly converted to cropland. The conversion rate of savannah was lower than the annual population growth of 3%. A clear increase in total discharge (+17%) and decrease in evapotranspiration (-5%) was observed following land use change in the catchment. A strong relationship was established between savannah degradation, cropland expansion, discharge increase and reduction of evapotranspiration. The increase in total discharge is related to high peak flow, suggesting (i) an increase in water resources that are not available for plant growth and human consumption and (ii) an alteration of flood risk for both the population within and
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Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.
2016-11-01
With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.
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SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MICRO-LEVEL MODELLING OF LAND USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN INTERFACE. (R828012)
This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate...
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de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas
2015-02-17
Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.
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Land Use and Land Cover - MO 2015 Silver Land Cover (GDB)
NSGIC State | GIS Inventory — MoRAP produced and integrated data to map land cover and wetlands for the Upper Silver Creek Watershed in Illinois. LiDAR elevation and vegetation height information...
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Land Use and Land Cover - MO 2015 Meramec Land Cover (GDB)
NSGIC State | GIS Inventory — MoRAP produced and integrated data to map land cover and wetlands for the Meramec River bottomland in Missouri. LiDAR elevation and vegetation height information and...
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Modelling land use/cover changes with markov-cellular automata in Komering Watershed, South Sumatera
Kusratmoko, E.; Albertus, S. D. Y.; Supriatna
2017-01-01
This research has a purpose to study and develop a model that can representing and simulating spatial distribution pattern of land use change in Komering watershed. The Komering watershed is one of nine sub Musi river basin and is located in the southern part of Sumatra island that has an area of 8060,62 km2. Land use change simulations, achieved through Markov-cellular automata (CA) methodologies. Slope, elevation, distance from road, distance from river, distance from capital sub-district, distance from settlement area area were driving factors that used in this research. Land use prediction result in 2030 also shows decrease of forest acreage up to -3.37%, agricultural land decreased up to -2.13%, and open land decreased up to -0.13%. On the other hand settlement area increased up to 0.07%, and plantation land increased up to 5.56%. Based on the predictive result, land use unconformity percentage to RTRW in Komering watershed is 18.62 % and land use conformity is 58.27%. Based on the results of the scenario, where forest in protected areas and agriculture land are maintained, shows increase the land use conformity amounted to 60.41 % and reduce unconformity that occur in Komering watershed to 17.23 %.
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Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India
Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter
2013-04-01
Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be
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An integrated Biophysical CGE model to provide Sustainable Development Goal insights
Sanchez, Marko; Cicowiez, Martin; Howells, Mark; Zepeda, Eduardo
2016-04-01
Future projected changes in the energy system will inevitably result in changes to the level of appropriation of environmental resources, particularly land and water, and this will have wider implications for environmental sustainability, and may affect other sectors of the economy. An integrated climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) system will provide useful insights, particularly with regard to the environmental sustainability. However, it will require adequate integration with other tools to detect economic impacts and broaden the scope for policy analysis. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a well suited tool to channel impacts, as detected in a CLEW analysis, onto all sectors of the economy, and evaluate trade-offs and synergies, including those of possible policy responses. This paper will show an application of such integration in a single-country CGE model with the following key characteristics. Climate is partly exogenous (as proxied by temperature and rainfall) and partly endogenous (as proxied by emissions generated by different sectors) and has an impact on endogenous variables such as land productivity and labor productivity. Land is a factor of production used in agricultural and forestry activities which can be of various types if land use alternatives (e.g., deforestation) are to be considered. Energy is an input to the production process of all economic sectors and a consumption good for households. Because it is possible to allow for substitution among different energy sources (e.g. renewable vs non-renewable) in the generation of electricity, the production process of energy products can consider the use of natural resources such as oil and water. Water, data permitting, can be considered as an input into the production process of agricultural sectors, which is particularly relevant in case of irrigation. It can also be considered as a determinant of total factor productivity in hydro-power generation. The integration of a CLEW
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MULTI-TEMPORAL LAND USE GENERATION FOR THE OHIO RIVER BASIN
A set of backcast and forecast land use maps of the Ohio River Basin (ORB) was developed that could be used to assess the spatial-temporal patterns of land use/land cover (LULC) change in this important basin. This approach was taken to facilitate assessment of integrated sustain...
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Cervarich, M.; Shu, S.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Stocker, B.; Arneth, A.; Viovy, N.; Kato, E.; Wiltshire, A.; Koven, C.; Sitch, S.; Zeng, N.; Friedlingstein, P.
2015-12-01
Understanding our present day carbon cycle and possible solutions to recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide is dependent upon quantifying the terrestrial carbon budget. Currently, global land cover and land use change is estimated to emit 0.9 PgC yr-1 compared to emissions due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production of 8.4 PgC yr-1. South and Southeast Asia (India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Singapore) is a region of rapid land cover and land use change due to the continuous development of agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, and the increased demand of land for people to live. In this study, we synthesize outputs of nine models participated in Global Carbon Budget Project to identify the carbon budget of South and southeast Asia, diagnose the contribution of land cover and land use change to carbon emissions and assess areas of uncertainty in the suite of models. Uncertainty is determined using the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of net ecosystem exchange and its component parts. Results show the region's terrestrial biosphere was a source of carbon emissions from the 1980 to the early 1990s. During the same time period, land cover and land use change increasingly contributed to carbon emission. In the most recent two decades, the region became a carbon sink since emission due to land cover land use changes. Spatially, the greatest total emissions occurred in the tropical forest of Southeast Asia. Additionally, this is the subregion with the greatest uncertainty and greatest biomass. Model uncertainty is shown to be proportional to total biomass. The atmospheric impacts of ENSO are shown to suppress the net biosphere productivity in South and Southeast Asia leading to years of increased carbon emissions.
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Rosas, Jorge
2014-12-01
Satellite remote sensing provides data on land surface characteristics, useful for mapping land surface energy fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET). Land-surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared (TIR) satellite data has been reliably used as a remote indicator of ET and surface moisture status. However, TIR imagery usually operates at a coarser resolution than that of shortwave sensors on the same satellite platform, making it sometimes unsuitable for monitoring of field-scale crop conditions. This study applies the data mining sharpener (DMS; Gao et al., 2012) technique to data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which sharpens the 1 km thermal data down to the resolution of the optical data (250-500 m) based on functional LST and reflectance relationships established using a flexible regression tree approach. The DMS approach adopted here has been enhanced/refined for application over irrigated farming areas located in harsh desert environments in Saudi Arabia. The sharpened LST data is input to an integrated modeling system that uses the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model and associated flux disaggregation scheme (DisALEXI) in conjunction with model reanalysis data and remotely sensed data from polar orbiting (MODIS) and geostationary (MSG; Meteosat Second Generation) satellite platforms to facilitate daily estimates of evapotranspiration. Results are evaluated against available flux tower observations over irrigated maize near Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. Successful monitoring of field-scale changes in surface fluxes are of importance towards an efficient water use in areas where fresh water resources are scarce and poorly monitored. Gao, F.; Kustas, W.P.; Anderson, M.C. A Data Mining Approach for Sharpening Thermal Satellite Imagery over Land. Remote Sens. 2012, 4, 3287-3319.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others
2016-09-15
This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong
2016-01-01
This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased
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Yilmaz, Rüya
2010-06-01
The objective of the present study was to assess changes in land use/land cover patterns in the coastal town of Silivri, a part of greater Istanbul administratively. In the assessment, remotely sensed data, in the form of satellite images, and geographic information systems were used. Types of land use/land cover were designated as the percentage of the total area studied. Results calculated from the satellite data for land cover classification were compared successfully with the database Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE). This served as a reference to appraise the reliability of the study presented here. The CORINE Program was established by the European Commission to create a harmonized Geographical Information System on the state of the environment in the European Community. Unplanned urbanization is causing land use changes mainly in developing countries such as Turkey. This situation in Turkey is frequently observed in the city of Istanbul. There are only a few studies of land use-land cover changes which provide an integrated assessment of the biophysical and societal causes and consequences of environmental degradation in Istanbul. The research area comprised greater Silivri Town which is situated by the coast of Marmara Sea, and it is located approximately 60 km west of Istanbul. The city of Istanbul is one of the largest metropolises in Europe with ca. 15 million inhabitants. Additionally, greater Silivri is located near the terminal point of the state highway connecting Istanbul with Europe. Measuring of changes occurring in land use would help control future planning of settlements; hence, it is of importance for the Greater Silivri and Silivri Town. Following our evaluations, coastal zone of Silivri was classified into the land use groups of artificial surfaces agricultural areas and forests and seminatural areas with 47.1%, 12.66%, and 22.62%, respectively.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emanuele Bonamente
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The Multifunctional Environmental Energy Tower (MEET is a single, vertical, stand-alone renewable energy plant designed to decrease the primary energy consumption from fossil fuels, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to maximize the energy production from renewable sources available in place and to minimize land use. A feasibility case study was performed for the city of Rome, Italy. Several technologies are exploited and integrated in a single system, including a photovoltaic plant, a geothermal plant and a biomass digester for urban organic waste and sewage sludge. In the proposed configuration, the MEET could cover more than 11% of the electric power demand and up to 3% of the space heating demand of the surrounding urban area. An LCA analysis evaluates the environmental impact in a cradle-to-grave approach for two impact categories: global warming (carbon footprint and land use (land occupation and land transformation. The functional unit is a mix of electric (49.1% and thermal (50.9% energy (kWhmix. The carbon footprint is 48.70 g CO2eq/kWhmix; the land transformation is 4.058 m2/GWhmix; and the land occupation is 969.3 m2y/GWhmix. With respect to other energy production technologies, the carbon footprint is lower and similar to the best-performing ones (e.g., co-generation from wood chips; both of the land use indicators are considerably smaller than the least-impacting technologies. A systematic study was finally performed, and possible optimizations of the original design are proposed. Thanks to the modular design, the conceptual idea can be easily applied to other urban and non-urban scenarios.
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Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model
Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.
2014-12-01
The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for
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Le, Q.; Vlek, P. L.; Park, S.
2005-12-01
Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) is an essential environmental process that should be monitored and prognosticated to provide a basis for better land management policy. However, LUCC modeling is a challenge due to the complex nature and unexpected behavior of both human drivers and natural constraints. This paper presents a multi-agent-based model to simulate spatio-temporal land-use changes and the interdependent socio-economic dynamics emerging from the complex socio-ecological interactions at micro levels resulting from land-use policy interventions. The model provides land-use scenarios under alternative policy to support decisions on land management for improved rural livelihoods while protecting the environment. In the multi-agent simulation model, the human community is represented by household agents (heterogeneous farming households) with their profiles and decision-making mechanisms about land use. The household profile defines the five asset dimensions of household livelihood (e.g., social, human, financial, natural and physical assets). The land-use decision-making program works by taking inputs from the household profile, perceived spatial environmental attributes, and introduced policies. The decision-making program is a logical procedure that combines a land-use choice model (multi-nominal logistic choices) and anthropological rules. The landscape environment is represented by landscape agents (congruent land patches of 30mx30m) with their state variables and ecological response mechanisms to environmental changes and human interventions. State variables of landscape agents correspond to spatial GIS-raster layers of biophysical, economic, and institutional variables. Ecological mechanisms of landscape agents are represented by internal sub-models of agricultural and forest productivity dynamics, which work in response to the current state, history, and spatial neighbourhood of the landscape agents. A multi-agent based protocol coordinates the
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Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.
2014-01-01
In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Ghilain
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Monitoring evapotranspiration over land is highly dependent on the surface state and vegetation dynamics. Data from spaceborn platforms are desirable to complement estimations from land surface models. The success of daily evapotranspiration monitoring at continental scale relies on the availability, quality and continuity of such data. The biophysical variables derived from SEVIRI on board the geostationary satellite Meteosat Second Generation (MSG and distributed by the Satellite Application Facility on Land surface Analysis (LSA-SAF are particularly interesting for such applications, as they aimed at providing continuous and consistent daily time series in near-real time over Africa, Europe and South America. In this paper, we compare them to monthly vegetation parameters from a database commonly used in numerical weather predictions (ECOCLIMAP-I, showing the benefits of the new daily products in detecting the spatial and temporal (seasonal and inter-annual variability of the vegetation, especially relevant over Africa. We propose a method to handle Leaf Area Index (LAI and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC products for evapotranspiration monitoring with a land surface model at 3–5 km spatial resolution. The method is conceived to be applicable for near-real time processes at continental scale and relies on the use of a land cover map. We assess the impact of using LSA-SAF biophysical variables compared to ECOCLIMAP-I on evapotranspiration estimated by the land surface model H-TESSEL. Comparison with in-situ observations in Europe and Africa shows an improved estimation of the evapotranspiration, especially in semi-arid climates. Finally, the impact on the land surface modelled evapotranspiration is compared over a north–south transect with a large gradient of vegetation and climate in Western Africa using LSA-SAF radiation forcing derived from remote sensing. Differences are highlighted. An evaluation against remote sensing derived land
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A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing
Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.
1974-01-01
An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.
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Cerretelli, Stefania; Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Peressotti, Alessandro; Black, Helaina
2017-04-01
Land and soil degradation are widespread especially in dry and developing countries such as Ethiopia. Land degradation leads to ecosystems services (ESS) degradation, because it causes the depletion and loss of several soil functions. Ethiopia's farmland faces intense degradation due to deforestation, agricultural land expansion, land overexploitation and overgrazing. In this study we modelled the impact of physical factors on ESS degradation, in particular soil erodibility, carbon storage and nutrient retention, in the Ethiopian Great Rift Valley, northwestern of Hawassa. We used models of the Sediment retention/loss, the Nutrient Retention/loss (from the software suite InVEST) and Carbon Storage. To run the models we coupled soil local data (such as soil organic carbon, soil texture) with remote sensing data as input in the parametrization phase, e.g. to derive a land use map, to calculate the aboveground and belowground carbon, the evapotraspiration coefficient and the capacity of vegetation to retain nutrient. We then used spatialised Bayesian Belief Networks (sBBNs) predicting ecosystem services degradation on the basis of the results of the three mechanistic models. The results show i) the importance of mapping of ESS degradation taking into consideration the spatial heterogeneity and the cross-correlations between impacts ii) the fundamental role of remote sensing data in monitoring and modelling in remote, data-poor areas and iii) the important role of spatial BBNs in providing spatially explicit measures of risk and uncertainty. This approach could help decision makers to identify priority areas for intervention in order to reduce land and ecosystem services degradation.
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A framework for benchmarking land models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Q. Luo
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1 targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2 a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3 metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4 model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1 a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2 a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties
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Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue
2013-10-15
Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Dieye, A.M.; Roy, David P.; Hanan, N.P.; Liu, S.; Hansen, M.; Toure, A.
2012-01-01
Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.
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Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations.
McClure, Roderick J; Adriazola-Steil, Claudia; Mulvihill, Christine; Fitzharris, Michael; Salmon, Paul; Bonnington, C Paul; Stevenson, Mark
2015-04-01
We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population. We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost. Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period. Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.
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Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G; Gutiérrez-Cánovas, Cayetano; Ledesma, José L J; Ormerod, Steve J; Couture, Raoul-Marie
2018-06-15
Interactions between climate change and land use change might have substantial effects on aquatic ecosystems, but are still poorly understood. Using the Welsh River Wye as a case study, we linked models of water quality (Integrated Catchment - INCA) and climate (GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and IPSL - Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) under greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to drive a bespoke ecosystem model that simulated the responses of aquatic organisms. The potential effects of economic and social development were also investigated using scenarios from the EU MARS project (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). Longitudinal position along the river mediated response to increasing anthropogenic pressures. Upland locations appeared particularly sensitive to nutrient enrichment or potential re-acidification compared to lowland environments which are already eutrophic. These results can guide attempts to mitigate future impacts and reiterate the need for sensitive land management in upland, temperate environments which are likely to become increasingly important to water supply and biodiversity conservation as the effects of climate change intensify. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Deniz Gerçek
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Land management and planning is crucial for present and future use of land and the sustainability of land resources. Physical, biological and cultural characteristics of land can be used to define Land Management Units (LMUs that aid in decision making for managing land and communicating information between different research and application domains. This study aims to describe the classification of ecologically relevant land units that are suitable for land management, planning and conservation purposes. Relying on the idea of strong correlation between landform and potential landcover, a conceptual model for creating Land Management Units (LMUs from topographic data and biophysical information is presented. The proposed method employs a multi-level object-based classification of Digital Terrain Models (DTMs to derive landform units. The sensitivity of landform units to changes in segmentation scale is examined, and the outcome of the landform classification is evaluated. Landform classes are then aggregated with landcover information to produce ecologically relevant landform/landcover assemblages. These conceptual units that constitute a framework of connected entities are finally enriched given available socio-economic information e.g., land use, ownership, protection status, etc. to generate LMUs. LMUs attached to a geographic database enable the retrieval of information at various levels to support decision making for land management at various scales. LMUs that are created present a basis for conservation and management in a biodiverse area in the Black Sea region of Turkey.
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A window of opportunities : the contributions of land use modelling to societal learning
Sterk, B.
2007-01-01
It has been argued that the management of land, whether at the field, farm or regional scale, can benefit from computer-based land use system analysis. As a result, a large number of computer-based models and tools have been produced over the past decades with the aim of providing support to policy
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Calibration of a Land Subsidence Model Using InSAR Data via the Ensemble Kalman Filter.
Li, Liangping; Zhang, Meijing; Katzenstein, Kurt
2017-11-01
The application of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has been increasingly used to improve capabilities to model land subsidence in hydrogeologic studies. A number of investigations over the last decade show how spatially detailed time-lapse images of ground displacements could be utilized to advance our understanding for better predictions. In this work, we use simulated land subsidences as observed measurements, mimicking InSAR data to inversely infer inelastic specific storage in a stochastic framework. The inelastic specific storage is assumed as a random variable and modeled using a geostatistical method such that the detailed variations in space could be represented and also that the uncertainties of both characterization of specific storage and prediction of land subsidence can be assessed. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a real-time data assimilation algorithm, is used to inversely calibrate a land subsidence model by matching simulated subsidences with InSAR data. The performance of the EnKF is demonstrated in a synthetic example in which simulated surface deformations using a reference field are assumed as InSAR data for inverse modeling. The results indicate: (1) the EnKF can be used successfully to calibrate a land subsidence model with InSAR data; the estimation of inelastic specific storage is improved, and uncertainty of prediction is reduced, when all the data are accounted for; and (2) if the same ensemble is used to estimate Kalman gain, the analysis errors could cause filter divergence; thus, it is essential to include localization in the EnKF for InSAR data assimilation. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.
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Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa
Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.
Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoya Ma
2015-11-01
Full Text Available As the main feature of land use planning, land use allocation (LUA optimization is an important means of creating a balance between the land-use supply and demand in a region and promoting the sustainable utilization of land resources. In essence, LUA optimization is a multi-objective optimization problem under the land use supply and demand constraints in a region. In order to obtain a better sustainable multi-objective LUA optimization solution, the present study proposes a LUA model based on the multi-objective artificial immune optimization algorithm (MOAIM-LUA model. The main achievements of the present study are as follows: (a the land-use supply and demand factors are analyzed and the constraint conditions of LUA optimization problems are constructed based on the analysis framework of the balance between the land use supply and demand; (b the optimization objectives of LUA optimization problems are defined and modeled using ecosystem service value theory and land rent and price theory; and (c a multi-objective optimization algorithm is designed for solving multi-objective LUA optimization problems based on the novel immune clonal algorithm (NICA. On the basis of the aforementioned achievements, MOAIM-LUA was applied to a real case study of land-use planning in Anlu County, China. Compared to the current land use situation in Anlu County, optimized LUA solutions offer improvements in the social and ecological objective areas. Compared to the existing models, such as the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II, experimental results demonstrate that the model designed in the present study can obtain better non-dominated solution sets and is superior in terms of algorithm stability.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Voldoire, A
2005-03-15
The main objective of this work has been to run a climate simulation of the 21. century that includes not only greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activity but also land-use and land-cover changes. To achieve this goal, the integrated impact model IMAGE2.2 (developed at RIVM, The Netherlands) was used, which simulates the evolution of greenhouse gases concentrations as well as land-cover changes. This model has been coupled to the general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA provided by the CNRM. Before coupling the models, sensitivity experiments with each model have been performed to test their respective sensitivity to the forcing of the other. Ultimately, a simulation with the two models coupled together has shown that interactions between climate and vegetation are not of primary importance for century scale studies. (author)
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Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Changes: The Case of Tropical Deforestation
Walker, Robert
2004-01-01
This article addresses land-cover and land-use dynamics from the perspective of regional science and economic geography. It first provides an account of the so-called spatially explicit model, which has emerged in recent years as a key empirical approach to the issue. The article uses this discussion as a springboard to evaluate the potential utility of von Thuenen to the discourse on land-cover and land-use change. After identifying shortcomings of current theoretical approaches to land use in mainly urban models, the article filters a discussion of deforestation through the lens of bid-rent and assesses its effectiveness in helping us comprehend the destruction of tropical forest in the Amazon basin. The article considers the adjustments that would have to be made to existing theory to make it more useful to the empirical issues.
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Soil mapping and processes modelling for sustainable land management: a review
Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Miller, Bradley; Smetanova, Anna; Depellegrin, Daniel; Misiune, Ieva; Novara, Agata; Cerda, Artemi
2017-04-01
Soil maps and models are fundamental for a correct and sustainable land management (Pereira et al., 2017). They are an important in the assessment of the territory and implementation of sustainable measures in urban areas, agriculture, forests, ecosystem services, among others. Soil maps represent an important basis for the evaluation and restoration of degraded areas, an important issue for our society, as consequence of climate change and the increasing pressure of humans on the ecosystems (Brevik et al. 2016; Depellegrin et al., 2016). The understanding of soil spatial variability and the phenomena that influence this dynamic is crucial to the implementation of sustainable practices that prevent degradation, and decrease the economic costs of soil restoration. In this context, soil maps and models are important to identify areas affected by degradation and optimize the resources available to restore them. Overall, soil data alone or integrated with data from other sciences, is an important part of sustainable land management. This information is extremely important land managers and decision maker's implements sustainable land management policies. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. References Brevik, E., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Baumgarten, A., Jordán, A. (2016) Historical perspectives and future needs in soil mapping, classification and pedological modelling, Geoderma, 264, Part B, 256-274. Depellegrin, D.A., Pereira, P., Misiune, I., Egarter-Vigl, L. (2016) Mapping Ecosystem Services in Lithuania. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 23, 441-455. Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B., Smetanova, A., Depellegrin, D., Misiune, I., Novara, A., Cerda, A. (2017) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land management. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baihuiqian He
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Rapid urbanization in China is leading to substantial adverse air quality issues, particularly for NO2 and particulate matter (PM. Land-use regression (LUR models are now being applied to simulate pollutant concentrations with high spatial resolution in Chinese urban areas. However, Chinese urban areas differ from those in Europe and North America, for example in respect of population density, urban morphology and pollutant emissions densities, so it is timely to assess current LUR studies in China to highlight current challenges and identify future needs. Details of twenty-four recent LUR models for NO2 and PM2.5/PM10 (particles with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 µm and <10 µm are tabulated and reviewed as the basis for discussion in this paper. We highlight that LUR modelling in China is currently constrained by a scarcity of input data, especially air pollution monitoring data. There is an urgent need for accessible archives of quality-assured measurement data and for higher spatial resolution proxy data for urban emissions, particularly in respect of traffic-related variables. The rapidly evolving nature of the Chinese urban landscape makes maintaining up-to-date land-use and urban morphology datasets a challenge. We also highlight the importance for Chinese LUR models to be subject to appropriate validation statistics. Integration of LUR with portable monitor data, remote sensing, and dispersion modelling has the potential to enhance derivation of urban pollution maps.
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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Schmitz, C.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Kyle, P.; Nelson, G.C.; Fujimori, S.; Gurgel, A.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Mason d'Croz, D.; Popp, A.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.A.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Lampe, von M.; Wise, M.; Blanc, E.; Hasegawa, T.; Kavallari, A.; Valin, H.
2014-01-01
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Varga
2016-03-01
Full Text Available This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed. The Direct Computer Mapping (DCM based solution starts from GIS layers and, via the graph interpretation and graphical edition of the process network, the expert interface is able to integrate the field experts’ knowledge in the computer aided generation of the simulation model. The methodology was applied and tested for the Southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton, Hungary. In the simplified hydrological model the GIS description of nine watercourses, 121 water sections, 57 small lakes and 20 Lake Balaton compartments were mapped through the expert interface to the dynamic databases of the DCM model. The hydrological model involved precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, runoff, infiltration. The COoRdination of INformation on the Environment (CORINE land cover based simplified “land patch” model considered the effect of meteorological and hydrological scenarios on freshwater resources in the land patches, rivers and lakes. The first results show that the applied model generation methodology helps to build complex models, which, after validation can support the analysis of various land use, with the consideration of environmental aspects.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuyu Xia
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Zhejiang Province, China is experiencing rapid urbanization, facing the challenge of coupling socioeconomic development and ecological conservation. This paper establishes a comprehensive index system to assess coordinating development of economic, construction land use (CLU, and ecology subsystems. A Granger test and a coupling coordination model were applied to explore the causal relationship and the coordinated development state among the three subsystems from 2000 to 2012. The results showed that: (1 changes in the integrated value of the economic subsystem were the Granger cause of changes in the ecology and CLU subsystems, and the changes in the integrated values of ecology and CLU was each other’s Granger cause; (2 the coupling coordination relationship of the integrated value for economic–CLU–ecology was constrained by the relationship between the economic and the CLU subsystems from 2000 to 2004, and that between the ecology and the economic subsystems was the impediment of the sustainable development of economic–CLU–ecology from 2004 to 2012. This research helps to identify approach to sustainable development through analyzing synergistic effects, interdependencies, and trade-offs among the integrated economic–CLU–ecology values, and to make significant contribution to urban planning policies in rapid urbanization region.
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Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.
2014-08-01
In order to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change in agricultural lands in Japan, while taking into account the effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activities and the nature of soils, a spatially explicit model simulation system was developed using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) with an integration of spatial and temporal inventories. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2008 with historical inventories. Simulated SOC stock was compared with observations in a nation-wide stationary monitoring program conducted during 1979-1998. Historical land-use change, characterized by a large decline in the area of paddy fields as well as a small but continuous decline in the area of orchards, occurred along with a relatively large increase in upland crop fields, unmanaged grasslands, and settlements (i.e. conversion of agricultural fields due to urbanization or abandoning). Results of the simulation on SOC stock change under varying land-use change indicated that land-use conversion from agricultural fields to settlements or other lands, as well as that from paddy fields to croplands have likely been an increasing source of CO2 emission, due to the reduction of organic carbon input to soils and the enhancement of SOC decomposition through transition of soil environment from anaerobic to aerobic conditions. The area-weighted mean concentrations of the simulated SOC stocks calculated for major soil groups under paddy fields and upland crop fields were comparable to those observed in the monitoring. Whereas in orchards, the simulated SOC stocks were underestimated. As the results of simulation indicated that SOC stock change under managed grasslands and settlements has been likely a major sink and source of CO2 emission at country-scale, respectively, validation of SOC stock change under these land-use types, which could not have been accomplished due to limited availability or a lack of measurement, remains a forthcoming challenge.
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The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint
XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.
2013-12-01
The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth
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Mena, Carlos F; Walsh, Stephen J; Frizzelle, Brian G; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P
2011-01-01
This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.
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METHODOLOGICAL BASIS IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS IN LAND USE, BURDENED LAND RIGHTS DURING LAND TENURE
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Dorosh J.
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The question of balanced consolidation of social legislation in a reasonable ratio of land rights and the interests of society as a whole, as well as local communities, citizens and legal entities established by them are general in nature and require specificity it is. Proved that one way of solving this problem is the establishment of restoictions of land rights, restrictions in land use. However, the mechanism of regulation establishment, implementation and termination of restrictions on the rights to land are not very functional and needs improvement. Current legislation in Ukraine does not contain a balanced set of regulations that would determine the nature and objectives of the restrictions, including encumbrances of land rights, their types, the reasons establishing and implementing restrictions of ownership and other rights to land and so on. Based on our analysis, we provide scientifically grounded suggestions on improving the legal framework, particularly, in terms of restrictions on land use and registration in the land management process, as an important means of influence on those rights in order to ensure rational land use and protection it is. Proved that the efficiency of administrative decisions during setting restrictions on land use purpose and usage of land is possible on the basis of land zoning, thus, it is necessary to adopt the Law of Ukraine "On land zoning." In addition, the current classification of land use restrictions, which was proposed by prominent scientists in Ukraine AM Tretyak (classification of restrictions in land use by functional features, and D.S. Dobryak and D.I. Babmindra (classification of restrictions on land use based on their placement by owners and land users, is complemented by types, namely: legal, environmental, ecological, technological, sanitation, urban and special. In the result of scientific studies,we have proposed a model of methodological process of land management actions on formation
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Brandt, Jesper; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard
the rotational system. At first the survey campaign seems to be going very well, but relative quickly did the military run into problems. The rapid urbanization of the landscape north of Copenhagen meant, that farming did not take place and at the island of Amager southwest of Copenhagen the farmers didn’t use......Anthropogenic land use practices are the single most important factor in the changing European landscapes. Respectively much attention has been devoted within Landscape Ecology to analyze changing patterns of land use and develop research strategies to understand the processes behind these changes...... and to inform policy makers. Models are used as an important tool in this research partly due to the revolution in information technologies during the last 30 years, which has made modeling more widespread in the research community. However modeling human decision making in form of land use practices...
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Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling
Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
2013-01-01
In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and
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The urban land use in the COSMO-CLM model: a comparison of three parameterizations for Berlin
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Kristina Trusilova
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The regional non-hydrostatic climate model COSMO-CLM is increasingly being used on fine spatial scales of 1–5 km. Such applications require a detailed differentiation between the parameterization for natural and urban land uses. Since 2010, three parameterizations for urban land use have been incorporated into COSMO-CLM. These parameterizations vary in their complexity, required city parameters and their computational cost. We perform model simulations with the COSMO-CLM coupled to these three parameterizations for urban land in the same model domain of Berlin on a 1-km grid and compare results with available temperature observations. While all models capture the urban heat island, they differ in spatial detail, magnitude and the diurnal variation.
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Land administration for housing production : analysis of need for interagency integration
Agunbiade, M.E.; Rajabifard, A.; Bennett, R.M.
2014-01-01
In most country contexts the activities of government land administration agencies, those dealing with the functions of land tenure, valuation, planning, and development, are disparate and lack harmonisation. This paper analyses the imperative for integrating these functions across and between
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Real estate appraisal of land lots using GAMLSS models
Florencio, Lutemberg; Cribari-Neto, Francisco; Ospina, Raydonal
2011-01-01
The valuation of real estates (e.g., house, land, among others) is of extreme importance for decision making. Their singular characteristics make valuation through hedonic pricing methods dificult since the theory does not specify the correct regression functional form nor which explanatory variables should be included in the hedonic equation. In this article we perform real estate appraisal using a class of regression models proposed by Rigby & Stasinopoulos (2005): generalized additive mode...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lily O. Rodríguez
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Building resilient sustainable social-ecological systems (SES requires communities to enhance their adaptive capacities. Communal participative land-use planning (Zonificación Participativa Comunal—ZPC is a tool designed for communities to integrating local and scientific knowledge to sustainably organize and manage their SES. Between 2006 and 2011, a ZPC was developed with communities in the buffer zone of Cordillera Azul National Park (Peru, where rapid demographic changes are converting pre-montane seasonally dry forest into agricultural land. Herein, we analyse how the ZPC enhanced adaptive capacity, enabling the SES to cope with environmental, political and economic changes. Based on qualitative, semi-structured interviews, communities are analysed along their capacities in the dimensions social capital, learning, adaptive management and governance. An analysis of yearly high-resolution forest cover data supports our findings. Deforestation activities in biologically sensitive zones decreased rapidly during the time of the ZPC implementation. We find that particularly the long-term presence of the bridging institution and the continuous testing and reflection of the integrated “hybrid knowledge” enabled communities to develop adaptive capacities. The analysis of ZPC our results reveals the enabling conditions for promoting the learning process to develop a sustainable land-use management in the context of migration and rapid changes.
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Feedback of land subsidence on the movement and conjunctive use of water resources
Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Leake, Stanley A.; Hughes, Joseph D.; Niswonger, Richard G.
2014-01-01
The dependency of surface- or groundwater flows and aquifer hydraulic properties on dewatering-induced layer deformation is not available in the USGS's groundwater model MODFLOW. A new integrated hydrologic model, MODFLOW-OWHM, formulates this dependency by coupling mesh deformation with aquifer transmissivity and storage and by linking land subsidence/uplift with deformation-dependent flows that also depend on aquifer head and other flow terms. In a test example, flows most affected were stream seepage and evapotranspiration from groundwater (ETgw). Deformation feedback also had an indirect effect on conjunctive surface- and groundwater use components: Changed stream seepage and streamflows influenced surface-water deliveries and returnflows. Changed ETgw affected irrigation demand, which jointly with altered surface-water supplies resulted in changed supplemental groundwater requirements and pumping and changed return runoff. This modeling feature will improve the impact assessment of dewatering-induced land subsidence/uplift (following irrigation pumping or coal-seam gas extraction) on surface receptors, inter-basin transfers, and surface-infrastructure integrity.
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Minnesota Land Use and Cover - A 1990's Census of the Land - Tiled
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This data set integrates six different source data sets to provide a simplified overall view of Minnesota's land use / cover. The six source data sets covered...
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Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Wei
2018-02-01
Several modelling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (ELUC) by including bidirectional transitions on the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change), dominated by shifting cultivation and other land turnover processes. However, most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that have implemented gross land use change either do not account for sub-grid secondary lands, or often have only one single secondary land tile over a model grid cell and thus cannot account for various rotation lengths in shifting cultivation and associated secondary forest age dynamics. Therefore, it remains uncertain how realistic the past ELUC estimations are and how estimated ELUC will differ between the two modelling approaches with and without multiple sub-grid secondary land cohorts - in particular secondary forest cohorts. Here we investigated historical ELUC over 1501-2005 by including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM. We run two simulations, one with no secondary forests (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of six age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501-2005 is 176 Pg C in Sage compared to 197 Pg C in Sageless. The lower ELUC values in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics under an assumed constant rotation length of 15 years, being 27 Pg C in Sage in contrast to 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC values from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C) when the model is forced by reconstructed harvested areas because secondary forests targeted in Sage for harvest priority are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to wood harvest being dominated by old primary forests. An alternative approach to quantify wood harvest ELUC, i.e. always harvesting the close-to-mature forests in both Sageless and Sage, yields similar values of 33 Pg C by both
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Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model
Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.
1997-01-01
The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface
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Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton
2014-02-01
We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.
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Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network
Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.
2017-01-01
This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels
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Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.
2016-12-01
The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations
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Yang, D.; Fu, C. S.; Binford, M. W.
2017-12-01
The southeastern United States has high landscape heterogeneity, withheavily managed forestlands, highly developed agriculture lands, and multiple metropolitan areas. Human activities are transforming and altering land patterns and structures in both negative and positive manners. A land-use map for at the greater scale is a heavy computation task but is critical to most landowners, researchers, and decision makers, enabling them to make informed decisions for varying objectives. There are two major difficulties in generating the classification maps at the regional scale: the necessity of large training point sets and the expensive computation cost-in terms of both money and time-in classifier modeling. Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) opens a new era in mapping and visualizing our world, where the platform is open for collecting valuable georeferenced information by volunteer citizens, and the data is freely available to the public. As one of the most well-known VGI initiatives, OpenStreetMap (OSM) contributes not only road network distribution, but also the potential for using this data to justify land cover and land use classifications. Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a platform designed for cloud-based mapping with a robust and fast computing power. Most large scale and national mapping approaches confuse "land cover" and "land-use", or build up the land-use database based on modeled land cover datasets. Unlike most other large-scale approaches, we distinguish and differentiate land-use from land cover. By focusing our prime objective of mapping land-use and management practices, a robust regional land-use mapping approach is developed by incorporating the OpenstreepMap dataset into Earth observation remote sensing imageries instead of the often-used land cover base maps.
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Towards integrated modelling of soil organic carbon cycling at landscape scale
Viaud, V.
2009-04-01
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is recognized as a key factor of the chemical, biological and physical quality of soil. Numerous models of soil organic matter turnover have been developed since the 1930ies, most of them dedicated to plot scale applications. More recently, they have been applied to national scales to establish the inventories of carbon stocks directed by the Kyoto protocol. However, only few studies consider the intermediate landscape scale, where the spatio-temporal pattern of land management practices, its interactions with the physical environment and its impacts on SOC dynamics can be investigated to provide guidelines for sustainable management of soils in agricultural areas. Modelling SOC cycling at this scale requires accessing accurate spatially explicit input data on soils (SOC content, bulk density, depth, texture) and land use (land cover, farm practices), and combining both data in a relevant integrated landscape representation. The purpose of this paper is to present a first approach to modelling SOC evolution in a small catchment. The impact of the way landscape is represented on SOC stocks in the catchment was more specifically addressed. This study was based on the field map, the soil survey, the crop rotations and land management practices of an actual 10-km² agricultural catchment located in Brittany (France). RothC model was used to drive soil organic matter dynamics. Landscape representation in the form of a systematic regular grid, where driving properties vary continuously in space, was compared to a representation where landscape is subdivided into a set of homogeneous geographical units. This preliminary work enabled to identify future needs to improve integrated soil-landscape modelling in agricultural areas.
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Neural Network Control for the Probe Landing Based on Proportional Integral Observer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuanchun Li
2015-01-01
Full Text Available For the probe descending and landing safely, a neural network control method based on proportional integral observer (PIO is proposed. First, the dynamics equation of the probe under the landing site coordinate system is deduced and the nominal trajectory meeting the constraints in advance on three axes is preplanned. Then the PIO designed by using LMI technique is employed in the control law to compensate the effect of the disturbance. At last, the neural network control algorithm is used to guarantee the double zero control of the probe and ensure the probe can land safely. An illustrative design example is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.
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Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan
2016-03-24
Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.
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Cloud-enabled large-scale land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System
Duffy, D.; Vaughan, G.; Clark, M. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Rheingrover, S.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J. V.
2017-12-01
Developed by the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Land Information System (LIS) is a high-performance software framework for terrestrial hydrology modeling and data assimilation. LIS provides the ability to integrate satellite and ground-based observational products and advanced modeling algorithms to extract land surface states and fluxes. Through a partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Washington, the LIS model is currently being extended to include the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA). With the addition of SUMMA in LIS, meaningful simulations containing a large multi-model ensemble will be enabled and can provide advanced probabilistic continental-domain modeling capabilities at spatial scales relevant for water managers. The resulting LIS/SUMMA application framework is difficult for non-experts to install due to the large amount of dependencies on specific versions of operating systems, libraries, and compilers. This has created a significant barrier to entry for domain scientists that are interested in using the software on their own systems or in the cloud. In addition, the requirement to support multiple run time environments across the LIS community has created a significant burden on the NASA team. To overcome these challenges, LIS/SUMMA has been deployed using Linux containers, which allows for an entire software package along with all dependences to be installed within a working runtime environment, and Kubernetes, which orchestrates the deployment of a cluster of containers. Within a cloud environment, users can now easily create a cluster of virtual machines and run large-scale LIS/SUMMA simulations. Installations that have taken weeks and months can now be performed in minutes of time. This presentation will discuss the steps required to create a cloud-enabled large-scale simulation, present examples of its use, and
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Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.
Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich
2015-06-01
The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.
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Land cover, land use changes and air pollution in Asia: a synthesis
Vadrevu, Krishna; Ohara, Toshimasa; Justice, Chris
2017-12-01
A better understanding of land cover/land use changes (LCLUC) and their interactions with the atmospheric environment is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources, environmental protection, air quality, agricultural planning and food security. The 15 papers published in this focus issue showcase a variety of studies relating to drivers and impacts of LCLUC and air pollution in different South/Southeast Asian (S/SEA) countries. This synthesis article, in addition to giving context to the articles in this focus issue, also reviews the broad linkages between population, LCLUC and air pollution. Additionally, we identify knowledge gaps and research priorities that are essential in addressing air pollution issues in the region. We conclude that for effective pollution mitigation in S/SEA countries, quantifying drivers, sources and impacts of pollution need a thorough data analysis through ground-based instrumentation, models and integrated research approaches. We also stress the need for the development of sustainable technologies and strengthening the scientific and resource management communities through capacity building and training activities to address air pollution issues in S/SEA countries.
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Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.
2015-01-01
Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.
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Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions
Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.
2012-04-01
Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.
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Impacts of land use/cover change on ecosystem services for Xiamen
Shi, L.; Cui, S.
2009-12-01
Based on remote sensing images of Xiamen in 1987, 1997 and 2007, the process of ecosystem service alteration resulting from land use/cover change was quantitatively analyzed through RS and GIS techniques. Consulting relative researches, an integrated assessment model was built to evaluating regional ecosystem services of Xiamen. The results showed that the total ecosystem service value of Xiamen was increased by 14.67%, from 3271.5 million to 3751.39 RMB. The relative change rate of supplying service, regulation service, cultural service and supporting service were 97.8%, -25.1%, 165.0% and -44.7% respectively, which indicated that land use/ cover change had positive effects on supplying and cultural service, whereas it had negatively affected both regulation service and supporting service. Land use/cover types of Xiamen in 1987, 1997 and 2007 Ecosystem values of Xiamen in 1987, 1997 and 2007 10 thousand RMB
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Modelling Participatory Geographic Information System for Customary Land Conflict Resolution
Gyamera, E. A.; Arko-Adjei, A.; Duncan, E. E.; Kuma, J. S. Y.
2017-11-01
Since land contributes to about 73 % of most countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP), attention on land rights have tremendously increased globally. Conflicts over land have therefore become part of the major problems associated with land administration. However, the conventional mechanisms for land conflict resolution do not provide satisfactory result to disputants due to various factors. This study sought to develop a Framework of using Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) for customary land conflict resolution. The framework was modelled using Unified Modelling Language (UML). The PGIS framework, called butterfly model, consists of three units namely, Social Unit (SU), Technical Unit (TU) and Decision Making Unit (DMU). The name butterfly model for land conflict resolution was adopted for the framework based on its features and properties. The framework has therefore been recommended to be adopted for land conflict resolution in customary areas.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huan Yu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.
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Yu, Huan; Ni, Shi-Jun; Kong, Bo; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong
2013-01-01
Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.
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Economic effects of western Federal land-use restrictions on U.S. coal markets
Watson, William Downing; Medlin, A.L.; Krohn, K.K.; Brookshire, D.S.; Bernknopf, R.L.
1991-01-01
Current regulations on land use in the Western United States affect access to surface minable coal resources. This U.S. Geological Survey study analyzes the long-term effects of Federal land-use restrictions on the national cost of meeting future coal demands. The analysis covers 45 years. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has determined the environmental, aesthetic, and economic values of western Federal coal lands and has set aside certain areas from surface coal mining to protect other valued land uses, including agricultural, environmental, and aesthetic uses. Although there are benefits to preserving natural areas and to developing areas for other land uses, these restrictions produce long-term national and regional costs that have not been estimated previously. The Dynamic Coal Allocation Model integrates coal supply (coal resource tonnage and coal quality by mining cost for 60 coal supply regions) with coal demand (in 243 regions) for the entire United States. The model makes it possible to evaluate the regional economic impacts of coal supply restrictions wherever they might occur in the national coal market. The main factors that the economic methodology considers are (1) coal mining costs, (2) coal transportation costs, (3) coal flue gas desulfurization costs, (4) coal demand, (5) regulations to control sulfur dioxide discharges, and (6) specific reductions in coal availability occurring as a result of land-use restrictions. The modeling system combines these economic factors with coal deposit quantity and quality information--which is derived from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Coal Resources Data System and the U.S. Department of Energy's Demonstrated Reserve Base--to determine a balance between supply and demand so that coal is delivered at minimum cost.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Enrico Paringit
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.
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Estimating the impact of land use change on surface energy partition based on the Noah model
Chen, Shaohui; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan
2014-03-01
It is well known that land use has an important impact on surface energy partition. It is important to study the evolving trend of the partition of sensible heat flux (SHF) and latent heat flux (LHF) from the net radiance (NR) with land use change in the context of regional climate changes. In this paper, we studied the response of energy partition to land use using the Noah model. First, the Noah model simulation results of SHF and LHF between 2003 and 2005 were comprehensively validated using the observation data from the Changbai Mountain Station, the Xilinhot Station, and the Yucheng Station. The study domains represent three different types of land use change: excessive deforestation, grassland degeneration aggravation, and groundwater level decline, respectively. The study period was subsequently extended from 2015 through 2034, using four projected land use maps and forcing data from Princeton (2000-2004). The simulation results show that during the land use conversions, the annual average of LHF drops by 10.7%, rises by 10.1%, and drops by 11.5% for the Changbai Mountain, Inner Mongolia, and Northern China stations, respectively while the annual average of SHF rises by 10.6%, drops by 10.1%, and drops by 11.3% for the three areas.
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Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.
2015-10-01
We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.
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Jewitt, G. P. W.; Garratt, J. A.; Calder, I. R.; Fuller, L.
In arid and semi-arid areas, total evaporation is a major component of the hydrological cycle and seasonal water shortages and drought are common. In these areas, the role of land use and land use change is particularly important and it is imperative that land and water resources are well managed. To aid efficient water management, it is useful to demonstrate how changing land use affects water resources. A convenient framework to consider this is through the use of the ‘blue-water’ and ‘green-water’ classification of Falkenmark, where green-water represents water use by land and blue-water represents runoff. In this study the hydrological response of nine land-use scenarios were simulated for the upper reaches of the Mutale River, an important tributary of the Luvuvhu River in S. Africa. The ACRU and HYLUC land use sensitive hydrological models, were used to investigate the change in blue and green water under the various land-use scenarios. The GIS software ArcGIS(8.3) was used to analyse available spatial data to generate inputs required by the hydrological models. The scenarios investigated included the current land use in the catchment, an increase or decrease in forest cover, and an increase or decrease in the area irrigated. Both models predict that increasing either forestry or irrigation significantly reduces the proportion of blue water in the catchment. The predictions from the models were combined with maps of catchment land use, to illustrate the changes in distribution of green and blue water in a user-friendly manner. The use of GIS in this way is designed to enable policy-makers and managers to quickly assimilate the water resource implication of the land use change.
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Integrated Control Modeling for Propulsion Systems Using NPSS
Parker, Khary I.; Felder, James L.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Yu, Albert Y.; Lehmann, William V. A.
2004-01-01
The Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), an advanced engineering simulation environment used to design and analyze aircraft engines, has been enhanced by integrating control development tools into it. One of these tools is a generic controller interface that allows NPSS to communicate with control development software environments such as MATLAB and EASY5. The other tool is a linear model generator (LMG) that gives NPSS the ability to generate linear, time-invariant state-space models. Integrating these tools into NPSS enables it to be used for control system development. This paper will discuss the development and integration of these tools into NPSS. In addition, it will show a comparison of transient model results of a generic, dual-spool, military-type engine model that has been implemented in NPSS and Simulink. It will also show the linear model generator s ability to approximate the dynamics of a nonlinear NPSS engine model.
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Application of Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) accelerators to the Pleim-Xiu land surface scheme
Huang, Melin; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.
2015-10-01
The land-surface model (LSM) is one physics process in the weather research and forecast (WRF) model. The LSM includes atmospheric information from the surface layer scheme, radiative forcing from the radiation scheme, and precipitation forcing from the microphysics and convective schemes, together with internal information on the land's state variables and land-surface properties. The LSM is to provide heat and moisture fluxes over land points and sea-ice points. The Pleim-Xiu (PX) scheme is one LSM. The PX LSM features three pathways for moisture fluxes: evapotranspiration, soil evaporation, and evaporation from wet canopies. To accelerate the computation process of this scheme, we employ Intel Xeon Phi Many Integrated Core (MIC) Architecture as it is a multiprocessor computer structure with merits of efficient parallelization and vectorization essentials. Our results show that the MIC-based optimization of this scheme running on Xeon Phi coprocessor 7120P improves the performance by 2.3x and 11.7x as compared to the original code respectively running on one CPU socket (eight cores) and on one CPU core with Intel Xeon E5-2670.
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Ding, Deng
Intensive human-environment interactions are taking place in Midwestern agricultural systems. An integrated modeling framework is suitable for predicting dynamics of key variables of the socio-economic, biophysical, hydrological processes as well as exploring the potential transitions of system states in response to changes of the driving factors. The purpose of this dissertation is to address issues concerning the interacting processes and consequent changes in land use, water balance, and water quality using an integrated modeling framework. This dissertation is composed of three studies in the same agricultural watershed, the Clear Creek watershed in East-Central Iowa. In the first study, a parsimonious hydrologic model, the Threshold-Exceedance-Lagrangian Model (TELM), is further developed into RS-TELM (Remote Sensing TELM) to integrate remote sensing vegetation data for estimating evapotranspiration. The goodness of fit of RS-TELM is comparable to a well-calibrated SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and even slightly superior in capturing intra-seasonal variability of stream flow. The integration of RS LAI (Leaf Area Index) data improves the model's performance especially over the agriculture dominated landscapes. The input of rainfall datasets with spatially explicit information plays a critical role in increasing the model's goodness of fit. In the second study, an agent-based model is developed to simulate farmers' decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. The comparison between simulated crop land percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields (yield drag). The simulation results given alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed show that, farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form
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Wang, H.; Chen, H.; Chen, X.; Wu, Q.; Wang, Z.
2016-12-01
The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg (GNAQPMS-Hg) is a global chemical transport model coupled Hg transport module to investigate the mercury pollution. In this study, we present our work of transplanting the GNAQPMS model on Intel Xeon Phi processor, Knights Landing (KNL) to accelerate the model. KNL is the second-generation product adopting Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) architecture. Compared with the first generation Knight Corner (KNC), KNL has more new hardware features, that it can be used as unique processor as well as coprocessor with other CPU. According to the Vtune tool, the high overhead modules in GNAQPMS model have been addressed, including CBMZ gas chemistry, advection and convection module, and wet deposition module. These high overhead modules were accelerated by optimizing code and using new techniques of KNL. The following optimized measures was done: 1) Changing the pure MPI parallel mode to hybrid parallel mode with MPI and OpenMP; 2.Vectorizing the code to using the 512-bit wide vector computation unit. 3. Reducing unnecessary memory access and calculation. 4. Reducing Thread Local Storage (TLS) for common variables with each OpenMP thread in CBMZ. 5. Changing the way of global communication from files writing and reading to MPI functions. After optimization, the performance of GNAQPMS is greatly increased both on CPU and KNL platform, the single-node test showed that optimized version has 2.6x speedup on two sockets CPU platform and 3.3x speedup on one socket KNL platform compared with the baseline version code, which means the KNL has 1.29x speedup when compared with 2 sockets CPU platform.
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Projected land use changes impacts on water yields in the karst mountain areas of China
Lang, Yanqing; Song, Wei; Deng, Xiangzheng
2018-04-01
Human-induced land use changes over short time scales have significant impacts on water yield, especially in China because of the rapid social economic development. As the biggest developing country of the world, China's economy is expected to continuously grow with a high speed in the next few decades. Therefore, what kind of land use changes will occur in the future in China? How these changes will influence the water yields? To address this issue, we assessed the water yields in the karst mountain area of China during the periods of 1990-2010 and 2010-2030 by coupling an Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and a Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. Three different land use scenarios i.e. natural growth, economic development, and ecological protection, were developed in 2030 using the CLUE model. It was concluded that, given land use changes between 1990 and 2010, total water yields in the karst mountain area are characterized by a trend towards fluctuating reduction. However, total water yields of 2030 in the economic development scenario revealed an increase of 1.25% compared to the actual water yields in 2010. The economy development in karst mountain areas of China in the future has a slight positive influence on water yields.
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Tom, C.; Miller, L. D.; Christenson, J. W.
1978-01-01
A landscape model was constructed with 34 land-use, physiographic, socioeconomic, and transportation maps. A simple Markov land-use trend model was constructed from observed rates of change and nonchange from photointerpreted 1963 and 1970 airphotos. Seven multivariate land-use projection models predicting 1970 spatial land-use changes achieved accuracies from 42 to 57 percent. A final modeling strategy was designed, which combines both Markov trend and multivariate spatial projection processes. Landsat-1 image preprocessing included geometric rectification/resampling, spectral-band, and band/insolation ratioing operations. A new, systematic grid-sampled point training-set approach proved to be useful when tested on the four orginal MSS bands, ten image bands and ratios, and all 48 image and map variables (less land use). Ten variable accuracy was raised over 15 percentage points from 38.4 to 53.9 percent, with the use of the 31 ancillary variables. A land-use classification map was produced with an optimal ten-channel subset of four image bands and six ancillary map variables. Point-by-point verification of 331,776 points against a 1972/1973 U.S. Geological Survey (UGSG) land-use map prepared with airphotos and the same classification scheme showed average first-, second-, and third-order accuracies of 76.3, 58.4, and 33.0 percent, respectively.
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Measurement of semantic similarity for land use and land cover classification systems
Deng, Dongpo
2008-12-01
Land use and land cover (LULC) data is essential to environmental and ecological research. However, semantic heterogeneous of land use and land cover classification are often resulted from different data resources, different cultural contexts, and different utilities. Therefore, there is need to develop a method to measure, compare and integrate between land cover categories. To understand the meaning and the use of terminology from different domains, the common ontology approach is used to acquire information regarding the meaning of terms, and to compare two terms to determine how they might be related. Ontology is a formal specification of a shared conceptualization of a domain of interest. LULC classification system is a ontology. The semantic similarity method is used to compare to entities of three LULC classification systems: CORINE (European Environmental Agency), Oregon State, USA), and Taiwan. The semantic properties and relations firstly have been extracted from their definitions of LULC classification systems. Then semantic properties and relations of categories in three LULC classification systems are mutually compared. The visualization of semantic proximity is finally presented to explore the similarity or dissimilarity of data. This study shows the semantic similarity method efficiently detect semantic distance in three LULC classification systems and find out the semantic similar objects.
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Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed
Diallo, Ousmane H.
2012-01-01
Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Interests in weekend trips are increasing, but few have studied how they are affected by land use. In this study, we analyze the relationship between compact land use characteristics and trip time in Seoul, Korea by comparing two research models, each of which uses the weekday and weekend data of the same travelers. To secure sufficient numbers of subjects and groups, full random coefficients multilevel models define the trip as level one and the neighborhood as level two, and find that level-two land use characteristics account for less variation in trip time than level-one individual characteristics. At level one, weekday trip time is found to be reduced by the choice of the automobile as a travel mode, but not by its ownership per se. In addition, it becomes reduced if made by high income travelers and extended to travel to quality jobs. Among four land use characteristics at level two, population density, road connectivity, and subway availability are shown to be significant in the weekday model. Only subway availability has a positive relationship with trip time and this finding is consistent with the level-one result that the choice of automobile alternatives increases trip time. The other land use characteristic, land use balance, turns out to be a single significant land use variable in the weekend model, implying that it is concerned mainly with non-work, non-mandatory travel.
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GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...
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Dogrul, Emin C.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Kadir, Tariq; Chung, Francis
2016-01-01
Effective modeling of conjunctive use of surface and subsurface water resources requires simulation of land use-based root zone and surface flow processes as well as groundwater flows, streamflows, and their interactions. Recently, two computer models developed for this purpose, the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) from the California Department of Water Resources and the MODFLOW with Farm Process (MF-FMP) from the US Geological Survey, have been applied to complex basins such as the Central Valley of California. As both IWFM and MFFMP are publicly available for download and can be applied to other basins, there is a need to objectively compare the main approaches and features used in both models. This paper compares the concepts, as well as the method and simulation features of each hydrologic model pertaining to groundwater, surface water, and landscape processes. The comparison is focused on the integrated simulation of water demand and supply, water use, and the flow between coupled hydrologic processes. The differences in the capabilities and features of these two models could affect the outcome and types of water resource problems that can be simulated.
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Idaho National Laboratory Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
No name listed on publication
2011-08-01
Land and facility use planning and decisions at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site are guided by a comprehensive site planning process in accordance with Department of Energy Policy 430.1, 'Land and Facility Use Policy,' that integrates mission, economic, ecologic, social, and cultural factors. The INL Ten-Year Site Plan, prepared in accordance with Department of Energy Order 430.1B, 'Real Property Asset Management,' outlines the vision and strategy to transform INL to deliver world-leading capabilities that will enable the Department of Energy to accomplish its mission. Land use planning is the overarching function within real property asset management that integrates the other functions of acquisition, recapitalization, maintenance, disposition, real property utilization, and long-term stewardship into a coordinated effort to ensure current and future mission needs are met. All land and facility use projects planned at the INL Site are considered through a formal planning process that supports the Ten-Year Site Plan. This Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report describes that process. The land use planning process identifies the current condition of existing land and facility assets and the scope of constraints across INL and in the surrounding region. Current land use conditions are included in the Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship Report and facility assets and scope of constraints are discussed in the Ten-Year Site Plan. This report also presents the past, present, and future uses of land at the INL Site that are considered during the planning process, as well as outlining the future of the INL Site for the 10, 30, and 100-year timeframes.
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Chester, Mikhail V; Nahlik, Matthew J; Fraser, Andrew M; Kimball, Mindy A; Garikapati, Venu M
2013-01-01
The environmental outcomes of urban form changes should couple life-cycle and behavioral assessment methods to better understand urban sustainability policy outcomes. Using Phoenix, Arizona light rail as a case study, an integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment (ITLU-LCA) framework is developed to assess the changes to energy consumption and air emissions from transit-oriented neighborhood designs. Residential travel, commercial travel, and building energy use are included and the framework integrates household behavior change assessment to explore the environmental and economic outcomes of policies that affect infrastructure. The results show that upfront environmental and economic investments are needed (through more energy-intense building materials for high-density structures) to produce long run benefits in reduced building energy use and automobile travel. The annualized life-cycle benefits of transit-oriented developments in Phoenix can range from 1.7 to 230 Gg CO2e depending on the aggressiveness of residential density. Midpoint impact stressors for respiratory effects and photochemical smog formation are also assessed and can be reduced by 1.2-170 Mg PM10e and 41-5200 Mg O3e annually. These benefits will come at an additional construction cost of up to $410 million resulting in a cost of avoided CO2e at $16-29 and household cost savings.
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A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck
2013-01-01
Large knowledge gaps currently exist that limit our ability to understand and characterise dynamics and patterns of land-use intensity: in particular, a comprehensive conceptual framework and a system of measurement are lacking. This situation hampers the development of a sound understanding...... of the mechanisms, determinants, and constraints underlying changes in land-use intensity. On the basis of a review of approaches for studying land-use intensity, we propose a conceptual framework to quantify and analyse land-use intensity. This framework integrates three dimensions: (a) input intensity, (b) output...
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Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity.
Lambin, Eric F; Meyfroidt, Patrick
2011-03-01
A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms-the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects-that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.
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Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity
Lambin, Eric F.; Meyfroidt, Patrick
2011-01-01
A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms—the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects—that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors. PMID:21321211
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The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions
Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.
2010-01-01
To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy
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Classification of Land Cover and Land Use Based on Convolutional Neural Networks
Yang, Chun; Rottensteiner, Franz; Heipke, Christian
2018-04-01
Land cover describes the physical material of the earth's surface, whereas land use describes the socio-economic function of a piece of land. Land use information is typically collected in geospatial databases. As such databases become outdated quickly, an automatic update process is required. This paper presents a new approach to determine land cover and to classify land use objects based on convolutional neural networks (CNN). The input data are aerial images and derived data such as digital surface models. Firstly, we apply a CNN to determine the land cover for each pixel of the input image. We compare different CNN structures, all of them based on an encoder-decoder structure for obtaining dense class predictions. Secondly, we propose a new CNN-based methodology for the prediction of the land use label of objects from a geospatial database. In this context, we present a strategy for generating image patches of identical size from the input data, which are classified by a CNN. Again, we compare different CNN architectures. Our experiments show that an overall accuracy of up to 85.7 % and 77.4 % can be achieved for land cover and land use, respectively. The classification of land cover has a positive contribution to the classification of the land use classification.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raffaele Pelorosso
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Landscape connectivity is one of the major issues related to biodiversity conservation and to the delivery of Ecosystem Services (ES. Several models were developed to assess landscape connectivity but lack of data and mismatching scale of analysis often represent insurmountable constraints for the correct evaluation and integration of ecological connectivity into plans and assessment procedures. In this paper a procedure for ES assessment related with Habitat and Bio-Energy Landscape Connectivity (BELC is proposed. The method is based on the connectivity measure furnished by the last version of PANDORA model and uses a modified formulation of current ES evaluation. The implementation of the model in a real case has highlighted its potential multi-scale workability. The spatial approach of the model aims at furnishing a further tool for the spread of ES and landscape ecology concepts into procedures of assessment (e.g. EIA, SEA and land use planning at different administrative scales.
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Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed
John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu
2018-01-01
Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...
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Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik
2015-05-01
This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.
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Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik
2015-05-01
This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.
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Elliot, Joshua; Sharma, Bhavna; Best, Neil; Glotter, Michael; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Foster, Ian; Miguez, Fernando; Mueller, Steffen; Wang, Michael
2014-01-01
We present a novel bottom-up approach to estimate biofuel-induced land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO2 emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using highresolution geospatial data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-, state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios. We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops. For LUC decisionmaking, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs, we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), Miscanthus × giganteus (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14 BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively.
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Bateman, Ian; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Posen, Paulette
2012-01-01
Arguably the greatest challenge to contemporary research is to capture the inter-relatedness and complexity of the real world environment within models so at to better inform decision makers of the accurate and complete consequences of differing options. The paper presents an integrated model of the consequence of climate change upon land use and the secondary and subsequent effects arising subsequently. The model predicts the shift in land use which climate change is likely to induce and the...
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Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sunsanee Arunyawat
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.
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Scipioni, A.; Tagliaferri, F.
2009-04-01
Objective of the document is to define lines of development and distribution of the services to support detection, prevention and planning of the agricultural-forest-rural land against fire. The services will be a valid support on hand of the Regional and National Administrations involved in the agricultural-forest-rural activities (Ministry of Agricultural and Forestry Policies, National Forest Police, ecc..), through the employment of the SIAN "National Agricultural Informative System", that is the integrated national information system for the entire agriculture, forestry and fisheries Administration. The services proposals would be distributed through the GIS (Geographic Information Systems) of the SIAN: the GIS database is a single nation-wide digital graphic database consisting of: - Ortophotos: Aerial images of approz. 45 km2 each with ground resolution of 50 cm; - Cadastral maps: Land maps; - Thematic layers: Land use and crops identification The GIS services can take full advantage of the benefits of SIAN architectural model designed for best integration and interoperability with other Central and Local P.A. bodies whose main items are: - Integration of information from different sources; - Maintainance of the internal coeherence of any integrated information; - Flexibility with respect to technical or organizational changes The "innovative "services described below could be useful to support the development of institutional tasks of public Agencies and Administrations (es. Regions or Civil Protection agencies) according to than previewed from the D.Lgs. 173/98. Services of support to the management of the phenomenon of wildland fires The activities outlined in below figure, don't have a linear and defined temporal sequence, but a dynamic and time integration. It guarantees not only the integrated use of the various information, but also the value of every product, for level of accuracy, coherence and timeliness of the information. Description of four main
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mykhailo Grodzynskyi
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The Bakumivka River’s catchment, Ukraine serves as a case study to the application of FREEWAT to the ground and surface water management. The main objective of the study is to find out the optimal spatial distribution of the water supplied to the farms by modifying the land cover pattern of the catchment. An integrated numerical model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of the water budget components. The model includes four model layers, representing the main hydrostratigraphic units, different types of boundary conditions assigned along the area’s boundaries, major components of the water balance introduced through source and sink layers. It was implemented through the FREEWAT software. Three water management scenarios were developed in order to compare different spatial patterns of land cover and distribution of water within the Bakumivka River’s basin. The scenarios represent continuum from market oriented pattern to environmentally sounding pattern of land cover. The objective of the modeling exercise is to obtain mass balances and maps representing three scenarios of water management. Each map shows distribution of the areas where the water balance is optimal, insufficient (dry or excessive (wet for vegetation (land cover of particular type.The simulation shows that changing spatial land cover pattern is an effective measure to reduce water supply to the farms, however it does not prevent water logging in the areas adjacent to the flood plains and drying on summer stress periods in lands of sandyloam soils. Irrigation should be excluded in the areas with sandy and sandyloam soils. The flood plain with peat bogs despite the high water head in spring and late summer stress periods should be irrigated to prevent peat fires. The intrusion of eco-corridors to the land cover pattern in the catchment is positive from ecological perspective, but could prevent drainage causing water logging in the arable lands.
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Enhancing the representation of subgrid land surface characteristics in land surface models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Ke
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Land surface heterogeneity has long been recognized as important to represent in the land surface models. In most existing land surface models, the spatial variability of surface cover is represented as subgrid composition of multiple surface cover types, although subgrid topography also has major controls on surface processes. In this study, we developed a new subgrid classification method (SGC that accounts for variability of both topography and vegetation cover. Each model grid cell was represented with a variable number of elevation classes and each elevation class was further described by a variable number of vegetation types optimized for each model grid given a predetermined total number of land response units (LRUs. The subgrid structure of the Community Land Model (CLM was used to illustrate the newly developed method in this study. Although the new method increases the computational burden in the model simulation compared to the CLM subgrid vegetation representation, it greatly reduced the variations of elevation within each subgrid class and is able to explain at least 80% of the total subgrid plant functional types (PFTs. The new method was also evaluated against two other subgrid methods (SGC1 and SGC2 that assigned fixed numbers of elevation and vegetation classes for each model grid (SGC1: M elevation bands–N PFTs method; SGC2: N PFTs–M elevation bands method. Implemented at five model resolutions (0.1°, 0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0°and 2.0° with three maximum-allowed total number of LRUs (i.e., NLRU of 24, 18 and 12 over North America (NA, the new method yielded more computationally efficient subgrid representation compared to SGC1 and SGC2, particularly at coarser model resolutions and moderate computational intensity (NLRU = 18. It also explained the most PFTs and elevation variability that is more homogeneously distributed spatially. The SGC method will be implemented in CLM over the NA continent to assess its impacts on
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Akita, Yasuyuki; Baldasano, Jose M; Beelen, Rob; Cirach, Marta; de Hoogh, Kees; Hoek, Gerard; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Serre, Marc L; de Nazelle, Audrey
2014-04-15
In recognition that intraurban exposure gradients may be as large as between-city variations, recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have become increasingly interested in capturing within-city exposure gradients. In addition, because of the rapidly accumulating health data, recent studies also need to handle large study populations distributed over large geographic domains. Even though several modeling approaches have been introduced, a consistent modeling framework capturing within-city exposure variability and applicable to large geographic domains is still missing. To address these needs, we proposed a modeling framework based on the Bayesian Maximum Entropy method that integrates monitoring data and outputs from existing air quality models based on Land Use Regression (LUR) and Chemical Transport Models (CTM). The framework was applied to estimate the yearly average NO2 concentrations over the region of Catalunya in Spain. By jointly accounting for the global scale variability in the concentration from the output of CTM and the intraurban scale variability through LUR model output, the proposed framework outperformed more conventional approaches.
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New Approaches to Support Development of Sustainable Land Use Systems
Keulen, van, H.; Ittersum, van, M.K.; Roetter, R.P.; Ridder, de, N.; Hoanh, C.T.
2003-01-01
In this paper, the land use planning cycle is introduced and some recent efforts at developing appropriate methodologies for supporting some of its distinct phases are illustrated. The examples still largely bear an academic character, but since there is increasing demand by policy makers for integrated land use analysis studies, they may serve as building blocks for development of operational methodologies for land use policy ormulation and analysis. Their potential impacts on planning proce...
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Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool
Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.
2017-12-01
Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.
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An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)
Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer
2014-05-01
Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are
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Integrating 3D geological information with a national physically-based hydrological modelling system
Lewis, Elizabeth; Parkin, Geoff; Kessler, Holger; Whiteman, Mark
2016-04-01
Robust numerical models are an essential tool for informing flood and water management and policy around the world. Physically-based hydrological models have traditionally not been used for such applications due to prohibitively large data, time and computational resource requirements. Given recent advances in computing power and data availability, a robust, physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain using the SHETRAN model and national datasets has been created. Such a model has several advantages over less complex systems. Firstly, compared with conceptual models, a national physically-based model is more readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. Secondly, the results of a physically-based system may be more robust under changing conditions such as climate and land cover, as physical processes and relationships are explicitly accounted for. Finally, a fully integrated surface and subsurface model such as SHETRAN offers a wider range of applications compared with simpler schemes, such as assessments of groundwater resources, sediment and nutrient transport and flooding from multiple sources. As such, SHETRAN provides a robust means of simulating numerous terrestrial system processes which will add physical realism when coupled to the JULES land surface model. 306 catchments spanning Great Britain have been modelled using this system. The standard configuration of this system performs satisfactorily (NSE > 0.5) for 72% of catchments and well (NSE > 0.7) for 48%. Many of the remaining 28% of catchments that performed relatively poorly (NSE land cover change studies and integrated assessments of groundwater and surface water resources.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pavan, Ana Laura Raymundo, E-mail: laurarpavan@gmail.com [Center for Water Resource and Environmental Studies, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil); Ometto, Aldo Roberto [Center for Water Resource and Environmental Studies, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil); Department of Production Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil)
2016-09-15
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the
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Guo, Hong Wei; Sun, Xiao Yin; Lian, Li Shu; Zhang, Da Zhi; Xu, Yan
2016-09-01
Land use change has an important role in hydrological processes and utilization of water resources, and is the main driving force of water yield function of ecosystem. This paper analyzed the change of land use from 1990 to 2013 in Nansi Lake Basin, Shandong Province. The future land use in 2030 was also predicted and simulated by CLUE-S model. Based on land use scenarios, we analyzed the influence of land use change on ecosystem function of water yield in nearly 25 years through InVEST water yield model and spatial mapping. The results showed that the area of construction land increased by 3.5% in 2013 because of burgeoning urbanization process, but farmland area decreased by 2.4% which was conversed to construction land mostly. The simulated result of InVEST model suggested that water yield level of whole basin decreased firstly and increased subsequently during last 25 years and peaked at 232.1 mm in 2013. The construction land area would increase by 6.7% in 2030 based on the land use scenarios of fast urbanization, which would lead to a remarkable growth for water yield and risk of flowing flooding. However, the water yield level of whole basin would decrease by 1.2 % in 2013 if 300 meter-wide forest buffer strips around Nansi Lake were built up.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas
2008-01-01
different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning......-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses...... effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise....
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Using linear integer programming for multi-site land-use allocation
Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Eisinger, E.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Stewart, Th.J.
2003-01-01
Research in the area of spatial decision support (SDS) and resource allocation has recently generated increased attention for integrating optimization techniques with GIS. In this paper we address the use of spatial optimization techniques for solving multi-site land-use allocation (MLUA) problems,
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Cook, Bruce D.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Naesset, Erik; Anderson, Ryan S.; Garrigues, Sebastian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Nickeson, Jaime; Davis, Kenneth J.
2009-01-01
Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel Mendoza
2012-03-01
Full Text Available This study was undertaken to understand the implications of regional land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC in a spatially distributed water balance (SDWB within a poorly gauged basin in 1975 and 2000. Results from this work were derived by integrating remote sensing and geographic information system tools with a water-balance model, along with the application of a transitional matrix analysis. The analysis of changes in water-balance components, based on landforms and transitional matrices, indicated a small tendency towards improvement in the basin's hydrological conditions at a regional level. However, as a consequence of the increase in urban land-use, the basin's plains piedmonts showed a rice in runoff. In addition, the basins' lower areas exhibited a high demand for water resources due to an increased urban land-use in both years, along with the Cuitzeo lake degradation, particularly in terms of pollution and reduction of surface water inflow. The integrated approach used herein constitutes a viable alternative for understanding changes in the amount and spatial distribution of water available in poorly gauged water basins as a consequence of LCLUC.
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Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lucila Candela
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Climate change impact on water resources (streamflow and deep natural recharge based on the downscaled outputs from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM has been investigated in the Mediterranean basin (Fluvià, Spain for the A2, B1 greenhouse scenarios and 2000–2024/2025–2050 time slices. The HEC-HMS 3.4 rainfall-runoff numerical model was the basic tool used to generate streamflow for the historical period, and deep natural recharge was calculated from Visual-BALAN 2.0, a water-soil-plant distributed model. The hydrologic and recharge models were employed to generate future climate change hydrographs and the deep recharge amount. Furthermore, the selected future climate scenarios, subject to possible changes in the land use/land cover forecast, were integrated into the models, and water resource impacts were assessed. The multiple combinations of climate model, time slices, greenhouse scenarios, land use/land cover scenarios and hydrological estimation methods resulted in six scenarios. The obtained results estimate an increase in temperature (1.5 °C, a decline in precipitation (17% and a maximum decrease of 49.5% and 16.8% in runoff and groundwater recharge, respectively, for 2050 (A2 compared to the historical values. Planned land cover scenarios, implying small changes of agricultural and forested land, show no major contribution to future water resource changes. According to the results, the most sensitive parameters conditioning future water resources are changes in temperature and precipitation.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Fenicia
2009-09-01
Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography. Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on
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Land Use Scenarios for Greater Copenhagen: Modelling the Impact of the Fingerplan
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick
2012-01-01
Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...
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Life Cycle Inventory Modelling of Land Use Induced by Crop Consumption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kløverpris, Jesper; Wenzel, Henrik; Nielsen, Per Henning
2008-01-01
The actual land use consequences of crop consumption are not very well reflected in existing life cycle inventories. The state of the art is that such inventories typically include data from crop production in the country in which the crop is produced, and consequently the inventories do...... establishment of a link between crop demand and technological development. Through this approach, life cycle inventories for crops reflecting the actual land use consequences of consumption can be established. Further work (based on the methodological framework in this study) will address the practical....... Based on the current market trend for crops and an analysis of basic mechanisms in crop production, concepts for modelling how crop consumption affects the global agricultural area and the intensity of crop production are suggested. It is demonstrated how the assumptions concerning drivers...
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Blankenship, Clay B.; Crosson, William L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Hale, Robert
2010-01-01
Improve simulations of soil moisture/temperature, and consequently boundary layer states and processes, by assimilating AMSR-E soil moisture estimates into a coupled land surface-mesoscale model Provide a new land surface model as an option in the Land Information System (LIS)
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Jacquemin, I.; Fontaine, C. M.; Dendoncker, N.; François, L.; De Vreese, R.; Marek, A.; Mortelmans, D.; Van Herzele, A.; Devillet, G.
2012-04-01
Projecting the future of the evolution of socio-ecological systems to analyse their sustainability under climate or other environmental changes is not straightforward. Current projections usually use process-oriented models describing the complex interactions within the physical/biological systems (ecosystems), while the socio-economic constraints are represented with the help of scenarios. However, the actual evolution can be expected to be much more complex, because of the mutual interactions between ecological and socio-economic systems. To represent these interactions, models must integrate the complex process of human decision at individual or society levels. Moreover, models must be spatially explicit, defining elementary spatial units on which can act both the physical factors and the human decision process. These spatial units (e.g., farm fields) must be described not only in terms of energy, water, carbon and nutrient flows, but also in terms of the flow of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) they provide to the society together with the management costs required to sustain them. The provision of EGS may be altered in the future in response to changes in the climate system and the environment, but also through various human pressures on the landscape such as urbanization, as well as through the reaction of human societies to these changes in EGS provision. In the VOTES ("Valuation Of Terrestrial Ecosystem Services in a multifunctional peri-urban space") project, we attempt to model this coupled socio-ecological system by combining a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with an agent-based model (ABM). The DVM (CARAIB; Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) model describes the evolution of physical and biological processes in the ecosystems, i.e. the impact of climate change and land management on the energy, water and carbon budgets, as well as the productivity of each simulated plant species present on each land unit. The original
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Bridging the gaps between agricultural policy, land-use and biodiversity.
Mattison, Elizabeth H A; Norris, Ken
2005-11-01
The fate of biodiversity is intimately linked to agricultural development. Policy reform is an important driver of changes in agricultural land-use, but there is considerable spatial variation in response to policy and its potential impact on biodiversity. We review the links between policy, land-use and biodiversity and advocate a more integrated approach. Ecologists need to recognize that wildlife-friendly farming is not the only land-use strategy that can be used to conserve biodiversity and to research alternative options such as land sparing. There is also a need for social scientists and ecologists to bring their approaches together, so that land-use change and its consequences can be investigated in a more holistic way.
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Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events
Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.
2013-01-01
This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rui Zhou
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Over the past decades, urban growth boundaries (UGBs have been regarded as effective tools applied by planners and local governments to curb urban sprawl and guide urban smart growth. The UGBs help limit urban development to suitable areas and protect surrounding agricultural and ecological landscapes. At present, China’s Town and Country Planning Act officially requires the delimitation of UGBs in a city master planning outline and in central urban area planning. However, China’s practices in UGBs are usually determined by urban planners and local authorities, and lack a sound analytical basis. Consequently, Chinese UGBs are often proven to be inefficient for controlling urban expansion. In this paper, take the fast-growing Xinzhuang town of Changshu city, eastern China as an example, a new method towards establishing UGBs is proposed based on land-use change model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent, CLUE-S. The results of our study show that the land-use change and urban growth simulation accuracy of CLUE-S model is high. The expansion of construction land and the decrease of paddy field would be the main changing trends of local land use, and a good deal of cultivated land and ecological land would be transformed into construction land in 2009–2027. There is remarkable discordance in the spatial distribution between the simulated UGBs based on the CLUE-S model and the planned UGBs based on the conventional method, where the simulated results may more closely reflect the reality of urban growth laws. Therefore, we believe that our method could be a useful planning tool for the delimitation of UGBs in Chinese cities.
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Monitoring the Condition of the Natural and Economic Use of Land in the Poltava Region
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shchepak Vera V.
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The article is aimed at monitoring the condition of the natural and economic use of land on the basis of methods for integrated evaluation as well as determining the levels of intensity of land use at the regional level. Various views on evaluation of the condition of land have been considered. As the main attributes of the intensity of land use were accepted the agro-landscape ecological stability, the anthropogenic load, the ploughness of territory, the ploughness of agricultural land, the agricultural development of territory, and the recreational capacity. On the basis of methods for integral evaluation both the subjective and the objective importance of attributes has been determined, the integral indicators of intensity of land use have been calculated. Three levels of intensity of natural and economic use of land in the districts of Poltava region have been allocated, boundaries of the quantitative values of indicators have been determined. Prospect for further research is to evaluate the intensity of natural and economic land use at the national level in order to define a strategy for the rational use and protection of land in Ukraine and to formulate the directions of development of the regional land use on the basis of system approach.
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Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey
Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.
2017-12-01
Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.
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Integration of LUTI models into sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikolaos Gavanas
2016-06-01
Full Text Available A literature review indicates that there is an increasing number of Land Use/Transport Interaction (LUTI models being used in policy analysis and support of urban land use, transport and environmental planning. In this context, LUTI models are considered to be useful for the development of scenarios during the preparatory stage of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs. A SUMP can be defined as a strategic planning framework, proposed by the European Commission, for planning and design of an urban multimodal transport system, which combines multi-disciplinary policy analysis and decision making. The objective of a SUMP is to achieve sustainable urban mobility, i.e. accessibility for all, safety and security, reduction in emissions and energy consumption, efficient and cost-effective transport and an improvement in the urban environment. Based on the overall conceptual and methodological framework of LUTI models (Geurs and van Wee 2004, the scope of the proposed research is to fully integrate a LUTI model into a contemporary transport planning framework and, more specifically, into the SUMP structure. This paper focuses on the configuration of the integration pattern, according to which a LUTI model may evolve and interact with the planning process throughout the eleven elements of the SUMP, as well as the evaluation of the benefits and drawbacks from the implementation of the proposed pattern for the enhancement of SUMP and overall promotion of sustainable urban planning.
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Research Progress of Global Land Domain Service Computing:Take GlobeLand 30 as an Example
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CHEN Jun
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Combining service-computing technology with domain requirements is one of the important development directions of geographic information under Internet+, which provides highly efficient technical means for information sharing and collaborative services. Using GlobeLand 30 as an example, this paper analyzes the basic problems of integrating land cover information processing and service computing, introduces the latest research progress in domain service modeling, online computing method and dynamic service technology, and the GlobeLand 30 information service platform. The paper also discusses the further development directions of GlobeLand 30 domain service computing.
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Committed climate change due to historical land use and management: the concept
Freibauer, Annette; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Poeplau, Christopher
2013-04-01
A significant fraction of the European land surface has changed its land use over the last 50 years. Management practices have changed in the same period in most land use systems. These changes have affected the carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of the European land surface. Land use intensity, defined here loosely as the degree to which humans interfere with the land, strongly affects GHG emissions. Land use and land management changes suggest that the variability of the carbon balance and of GHG emissions of cultivated land areas in Europe is much more driven by land use history and management than driven by climate. Importantly changes in land use and its management have implications for future GHG emissions, and therefore present a committed climate change, defined as inevitable future additional climate change induced by past human activity. It is one of the key goals of the large-scale integrating research project "GHG-Europe - Greenhouse gas management in European land use systems" to quantify the committed climate change due to legacy effects by land use and management. The project is funded by the European Commission in the 7th framework programme (Grant agreement no.: 244122). This poster will present the conceptual approach taken to reach this goal. (1) First of all we need to proof that at site, or regional level the management effects are larger than climate effects on carbon balance and GHG emissions. Observations from managed sites and regions will serve as empirical basis. Attribution experiments with models based on process understanding are run on managed sites and regions will serve to demonstrate that the observed patterns of the carbon balance and GHG emissions can only be reproduced when land use and management are included as drivers. (2) The legacy of land use changes will be quantified by combining spatially explicit time series of land use changes with response functions of carbon pools. This will allow to separate short-term and
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Coca Castro, Alejandro; Reymondin, Louis; Rebetez, Julien; Fabio Satizabal Mejia, Hector; Perez-Uribe, Andres; Mulligan, Mark; Smith, Thomas; Hyman, Glenn
2017-04-01
Global land use monitoring is important to the the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The latest advances in storage and manipulation of big earth-observation data have been key to developing multiple operational forest monitoring initiatives such as FORMA, Terra-i and Global Forest Change. Although the data provided by these systems are useful for identifying and estimating newly deforested areas (from 2000), they do not provide details about the land use to which these deforested areas are transitioned. This information is critical to understand the biodiversity and ecosystem services impact of deforestation and the resulting impacts on human wellbeing, locally and downstream. With the aim of contributing to current forest monitoring initiatives, this research presents a set of experimental case studies in Latin America which integrate existing land-change information derived from remote sensing image and aerial photography/ground datasets, high-temporal resolution MODIS data, advanced machine learning (i.e deep learning) and big data technologies (i.e. Hadoop and Spark) to assess land-use change trajectories in newly deforested areas in near real time.
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Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H
2016-12-01
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC
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Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick
2011-01-01
development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoteng Cen
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Despite the unprecedented rate of urbanization throughout the world, human society is still facing the challenge of coordinating urban socioeconomic development and ecological conservation. In this article, we integrated socioeconomic data and spatial metrics to investigate the coupling relationship between intensive land use (ILU system and landscape ecological security (LES system for urban sustainable development, and to determine how these systems interact with each other. The values of ILU and LES were first calculated according to two evaluation subsystems under the pressure-state-response (PSR framework. A coupling model was then established to analyze the coupling relationship within these two subsystems. The results showed that the levels of both subsystems were generally increasing, but there were several fluctuation changes in LES. The interaction in each system was time lagged; urban land use/cover change (LUCC and ecosystem transformation were determined by political business cycles and influenced by specific factors. The coupling relationship underwent a coordinated development mode from 1992–2012. From the findings we concluded that the coupling system maintained a stable condition and underwent evolving threshold values. The integrated ILU and LES system was a coupling system in which subsystems were related to each other and internal elements had mutual effects. Finally, it was suggested that our results provided a multi-level interdisciplinary perspective on linking socioeconomic-ecological systems. The implications for urban sustainable development were also discussed.
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Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl
2014-05-01
The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use
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The Real-Time Monitoring Service Platform for Land Supervision Based on Cloud Integration
Sun, J.; Mao, M.; Xiang, H.; Wang, G.; Liang, Y.
2018-04-01
Remote sensing monitoring has become the important means for land and resources departments to strengthen supervision. Aiming at the problems of low monitoring frequency and poor data currency in current remote sensing monitoring, this paper researched and developed the cloud-integrated real-time monitoring service platform for land supervision which enhanced the monitoring frequency by acquiring the domestic satellite image data overall and accelerated the remote sensing image data processing efficiency by exploiting the intelligent dynamic processing technology of multi-source images. Through the pilot application in Jinan Bureau of State Land Supervision, it has been proved that the real-time monitoring technical method for land supervision is feasible. In addition, the functions of real-time monitoring and early warning are carried out on illegal land use, permanent basic farmland protection and boundary breakthrough in urban development. The application has achieved remarkable results.
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Modeling land-surface/atmosphere dynamics for CHAMMP
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gutowski, W.J. Jr.
1993-01-01
Project progress is described on a DOE CHAMP project to model the land-surface/atmosphere coupling in a heterogeneous environment. This work is a collaboration between scientists at Iowa State University and the University of New Hampshire. Work has proceeded in two areas: baseline model coupling and data base development for model validation. The core model elements (land model, atmosphere model) have been ported to the Principal Investigator's computing system and baseline coupling has commenced. The initial target data base is the set of observations from the FIFE field campaign, which is in the process of being acquired. For the remainder of the project period, additional data from the region surrounding the FIFE site and from other field campaigns will be acquired to determine how to best extrapolate results from the initial target region to the rest of the globe. In addition, variants of the coupled model will be used to perform experiments examining resolution requirements and coupling strategies for land-atmosphere coupling in a heterogeneous environment
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Ristić, Vladica; Maksin, Marija; Nenković-Riznić, Marina; Basarić, Jelena
2018-01-15
The process of making decisions on sustainable development and construction begins in spatial and urban planning when defining the suitability of using land for sustainable construction in a protected area (PA) and its immediate and regional surroundings. The aim of this research is to propose and assess a model for evaluating land-use suitability for sustainable construction in a PA and its surroundings. The methodological approach of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis was used in the formation of this model and adapted for the research; it was combined with the adapted Analytical hierarchy process and the Delphi process, and supported by a geographical information system (GIS) within the framework of ESRI ArcGIS software - Spatial analyst. The model is applied to the case study of Sara mountain National Park in Kosovo. The result of the model is a "map of integrated assessment of land-use suitability for sustainable construction in a PA for the natural factor". Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo
Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.
2010-12-01
In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmed Mohamed Wahid
2009-12-01
Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.
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Hassaballah, Khalid; Mohamed, Yasir; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Biro, Khalid
2017-10-01
Understanding the land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) and their implication on surface hydrology of the Dinder and Rahad basins (D&R, approximately 77 504 km2) is vital for the management and utilization of water resources in the basins. Although there are many studies on LULCC in the Blue Nile Basin, specific studies on LULCC in the D&R are still missing. Hence, its impact on streamflow is unknown. The objective of this paper is to understand the LULCC in the Dinder and Rahad and its implications on streamflow response using satellite data and hydrological modelling. The hydrological model has been derived by different sets of land use and land cover maps from 1972, 1986, 1998 and 2011. Catchment topography, land cover and soil maps are derived from satellite images and serve to estimate model parameters. Results of LULCC detection between 1972 and 2011 indicate a significant decrease in woodland and an increase in cropland. Woodland decreased from 42 to 14 % and from 35 to 14 % for Dinder and Rahad, respectively. Cropland increased from 14 to 47 % and from 18 to 68 % in Dinder and Rahad, respectively. The model results indicate that streamflow is affected by LULCC in both the Dinder and the Rahad rivers. The effect of LULCC on streamflow is significant during 1986 and 2011. This could be attributed to the severe drought during the mid-1980s and the recent large expansion in cropland.
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Modeling Net Land Occupation of Hydropower Reservoirs in Norway for Use in Life Cycle Assessment.
Dorber, Martin; May, Roel; Verones, Francesca
2018-02-20
Increasing hydropower electricity production constitutes a unique opportunity to mitigate climate change impacts. However, hydropower electricity production also impacts aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity through freshwater habitat alteration, water quality degradation, and land use and land use change (LULUC). Today, no operational model exists that covers any of these cause-effect pathways within life cycle assessment (LCA). This paper contributes to the assessment of LULUC impacts of hydropower electricity production in Norway in LCA. We quantified the inundated land area associated with 107 hydropower reservoirs with remote sensing data and related it to yearly electricity production. Therewith, we calculated an average net land occupation of 0.027 m 2 ·yr/kWh of Norwegian storage hydropower plants for the life cycle inventory. Further, we calculated an adjusted average land occupation of 0.007 m 2 ·yr/kWh, accounting for an underestimation of water area in the performed maximum likelihood classification. The calculated land occupation values are the basis to support the development of methods for assessing the land occupation impacts of hydropower on biodiversity in LCA at a damage level.
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Maheu, Audrey; Anctil, François; Gaborit, Étienne; Fortin, Vincent; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Therrien, René
2018-03-01
To address certain limitations with their current operational model, Environment and Climate Change Canada recently developed the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow (SVS) land surface model and the representation of subsurface hydrological processes was targeted as an area for improvement. The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of HydroSVS, the component of SVS responsible for the vertical redistribution of water, to simulate soil moisture under snow-free conditions when using flux-tower observations of evapotranspiration as forcing data. We assessed (1) model fidelity by comparing soil moisture modelled with HydroSVS to point-scale measurements of volumetric soil water content and (2) model complexity by comparing the performance of HydroSVS to that of HydroGeoSphere, a state-of-the-art integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic model. To do this, we performed one-dimensional soil column simulations at four sites of the AmeriFlux network. Results indicate that under Mediterranean and temperate climates, HydroSVS satisfactorily simulated soil moisture (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between 0.26 and 0.70; R2 ≥ 0.80), with a performance comparable to HydroGeoSphere (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ≥0.60; R2 ≥ 0.80). However, HydroSVS performed weakly under a semiarid climate while HydroGeoSphere performed relatively well. By decoupling the magnitude and sourcing of evapotranspiration, this study proposes a powerful diagnostic tool to evaluate the representation of subsurface hydrological processes in land surface models. Overall, this study highlights the potential of SVS for hydrological applications.
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Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.
2012-12-01
Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of
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Santanello, Joseph
2011-01-01
NASA's Land Information System (LIS; lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework developed over the past decade with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. LIS features a high performance and flexible design, and operates on an ensemble of land surface models for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The extensible interfaces of LIS allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models (LSMs), land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimization algorithms. In addition, LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation, and has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. A visiting fellowship is currently underway to implement JULES into LIS and to undertake some fundamental science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. An overview of the LIS system, features, and sample results will be presented in an effort to engage the community in the potential advantages of LIS-JULES for a range of applications. Ongoing efforts to develop a framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling will also be presented using the suite of LSM and PBL schemes available in LIS and WRF along with observations from the U. S .. Southern Great Plains. This methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.
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Impacts of Biofuel-Induced Agricultural Land Use Changes on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality
Lin, Z.; Zheng, H.
2015-12-01
The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin (RRNB), an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use changes on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%. Potential impacts of the future biofuel crop scenarios on watershed hydrology and water quality in the RRNB were also simulated through integrated economic-hydrologic modeling.
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Internal Migration and Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Middle Mountains of Nepal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bhawana KC
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The movement of rural households from remote uplands to valley floors and to semiurban and urban areas (internal migration is a common phenomenon in the middle mountain districts of Nepal. Understanding the causes and effects of internal migration is critical to the development and implementation of policies that promote land use planning and sustainable resource management. Using geospatial information technologies and social research methods, we investigated the causes and effects of internal migration on land use and land cover patterns in a western mountain district of Nepal between 1998 and 2013. The results show a decreasing number of households at high elevations (above 1400 m, where an increase in forest cover has been observed with a consequent decrease in agricultural land and shrub- or grassland. At lower elevations (below 1400 m, forest cover has remained constant over the last 25 years, and the agricultural land area has increased but has become geometrically complex to meet the diverse needs and living requirements of the growing population. Our findings indicate that internal migration plays an important role in shaping land use and land cover change in the middle mountains of Nepal and largely determines the resource management, utilization, and distribution patterns within a small geographic unit. Therefore, land use planning must take an integrated and interdisciplinary approach rather than considering social, environmental, and demographic information in isolation.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Md Shahriar Pervez
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Study Region: Brahmaputra River basin in South Asia.Study Focus: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate and validate the model and analyze uncertainties with a sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated for the A1B and A2 scenarios and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988–2004.New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate. Keywords: Brahmaputra, Freshwater availability, SWAT, Streamflow, Climate change, Land use change
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Varughese, Byji; Dayananda, G. N.; Rao, M. Subba
2008-01-01
The last two decades have seen a substantial rise in the use of advanced materials such as polymer composites for aerospace structural applications. In more recent years there has been a concerted effort to integrate materials, which mimic biological functions (referred to as smart materials) with polymeric composites. Prominent among smart materials are shape memory alloys, which possess both actuating and sensory functions that can be realized simultaneously. The proper characterization and modeling of advanced and smart materials holds the key to the design and development of efficient smart devices/systems. This paper focuses on the material characterization; modeling and validation of the model in relation to the development of a Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) based smart landing gear (with high energy dissipation features) for a semi rigid radio controlled airship (RC-blimp). The Super Elastic (SE) SMA element is configured in such a way that it is forced into a tensile mode of high elastic deformation. The smart landing gear comprises of a landing beam, an arch and a super elastic Nickel-Titanium (Ni-Ti) SMA element. The landing gear is primarily made of polymer carbon composites, which possess high specific stiffness and high specific strength compared to conventional materials, and are therefore ideally suited for the design and development of an efficient skid landing gear system with good energy dissipation characteristics. The development of the smart landing gear in relation to a conventional metal landing gear design is also dealt with
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Diogo, V.; Koomen, E.; Kuhlman, T.
2015-01-01
An economic theory-based land-use modelling framework is presented aiming to explain the causal link between economic decisions and resulting spatial patterns of agricultural land use. The framework assumes that farmers pursue utility maximisation in agricultural production systems, while
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Polarimetric SAR interferometry applied to land ice: modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dall, Jørgen; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos; Skriver, Henning
2004-01-01
This paper introduces a few simple scattering models intended for the application of polarimetric SAR interfer-ometry to land ice. The principal aim is to eliminate the penetration bias hampering ice sheet elevation maps generated with single-channel SAR interferometry. The polarimetric coherent...... scattering models are similar to the oriented-volume model and the random-volume-over-ground model used in vegetation studies, but the ice models are adapted to the different geometry of land ice. Also, due to compaction, land ice is not uniform; a fact that must be taken into account for large penetration...... depths. The validity of the scattering models is examined using L-band polarimetric interferometric SAR data acquired with the EMISAR system over an ice cap located in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Radar reflectors were deployed on the ice surface prior to the data acquisition in order...
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strengers, B.; Eickhout, B.; De Vries, B.; Bouwman, L.; Leemans, R.
2005-01-01
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, climate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 'macro-regions'. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the climate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation
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Land Use Change and Land Degradation in Southeastern Mediterranean Spain
Symeonakis, Elias; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo; Arnau-Rosalen, Eva
2007-07-01
The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall “recuperating” trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management.
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Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa
Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.
2014-12-01
Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes
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Developing an Agent-Based Model to Simulate Urban Land-Use Expansion (Case Study: Qazvin)
F. Nourian; A. A. Alesheikh; F. Hosseinali
2012-01-01
Extended abstract1-IntroductionUrban land-use expansion is a challenging issue in developing countries. Increases in population as well as the immigration from the villages to the cities are the two major factors for that phenomenon. Those factors have reduced the influence of efforts that try to limit the cities’ boundaries. Thus, spatial planners always look for the models that simulate the expansion of urban land-uses and enable them to prevent unbalanced expansions of cities and guide the...
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Global land-use and market interactions between climate and bioenergy policies
Golub, A.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.
2011-12-01
Over the past few years, interest in bioenergy has boomed with higher oil prices and concerns about energy security, farm incomes, and mitigation of climate change. Large-scale commercial bioenergy production could have far reaching implications for regional and global land use and output markets associated with food, forestry, chemical, and energy sectors, as well as household welfare. Similarly, there is significant interest in international agricultural and forestry based carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, which could also provide revenue to developing countries and farmers in exchange for modifying land management practices. However, bioenergy and climate policies are being formulated largely independent of one another. Understanding the interaction between these potentially competing policy objectives is important for identifying possible constraints that one policy might place on the other, potential complementarities that could be exploited in policy design, and net land-use change and management implications over time. This study develops a new dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GDyn-E-AEZ to assess the interaction between biofuels production and climate mitigation policies. The model is built on several existing CGE platforms, including 1) GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009), 2) GTAP-BIO (Birur et al., 2008; Taheripour and Tyner, 2011), and 3) GDyn framework (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2001) extended to investigate the role of population and per capita income growth, changing consumption patterns, and global economic integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. The new model is used to assess the effects of domestic and global bioenergy expansion on future land use, as well as sectoral, regional and global GHG emissions mitigation potential. Do bioenergy programs facilitate or constrain GHG mitigation opportunities? For instance, Golub et al. (2009) estimate substantial GHG
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. T. Chu
2012-07-01
Full Text Available The integration of different kinds of remotely sensed data, in particular Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and optical satellite imagery, is considered a promising approach for land cover classification because of the complimentary properties of each data source. However, the challenges are: how to fully exploit the capabilities of these multiple data sources, which combined datasets should be used and which data processing and classification techniques are most appropriate in order to achieve the best results. In this paper an approach, in which synergistic use of a feature selection (FS methods with Genetic Algorithm (GA and multiple classifiers combination based on Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, is proposed and evaluated for classifying land cover features in New South Wales, Australia. Multi-date SAR data, including ALOS/PALSAR, ENVISAT/ASAR and optical (Landsat 5 TM+ images, were used for this study. Textural information were also derived and integrated with the original images. Various combined datasets were generated for classification. Three classifiers, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN, Support Vector Machines (SVMs and Self-Organizing Map (SOM were employed. Firstly, feature selection using GA was applied for each classifier and dataset to determine the optimal input features and parameters. Then the results of three classifiers on particular datasets were combined using the Dempster-Shafer theory of Evidence. Results of this study demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method for land cover mapping using complex datasets. It is revealed that the use of GA in conjunction with the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can significantly improve the classification accuracy. Furthermore, integration of SAR and optical data often outperform single-type datasets.
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Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten
2012-01-01
the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...
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Spennemann, P. C.; Salvia, M.; Ruscica, R. C.; Sörensson, A. A.; Grings, F.; Karszenbaum, H.
2018-02-01
In regions of strong Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interaction, soil moisture (SM) conditions can impact the atmosphere through modulating the land surface fluxes. The importance of the identification of L-A interaction regions lies in the potential improvement of the weather/seasonal forecast and the better understanding of the physical mechanisms involved. This study aims to compare the terrestrial segment of the L-A interaction from satellite products and climate models, motivated by previous modeling studies pointing out southeastern South America (SESA) as a L-A hotspot during austral summer. In addition, the L-A interaction under dry or wet anomalous conditions over SESA is analyzed. To identify L-A hotspots the AMSRE-LPRM SM and MODIS land surface temperature products; coupled climate models and uncoupled land surface models were used. SESA highlights as a strong L-A interaction hotspot when employing different metrics, temporal scales and independent datasets, showing consistency between models and satellite estimations. Both AMSRE-LPRM bands (X and C) are consistent showing a strong L-A interaction hotspot over the Pampas ecoregion. Intensification and a larger spatial extent of the L-A interaction for dry summers was observed in both satellite products and models compared to wet summers. These results, which were derived from measured physical variables, are encouraging and promising for future studies analyzing L-A interactions. L-A interaction analysis is proposed here as a meeting point between remote sensing and climate modelling communities of Argentina, within a region with the highest agricultural and livestock production of the continent, but with an important lack of in-situ SM observations.
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Hävermark, Saga; Santos Ferreira, Carla Sofia; Kalantari, Zahra; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
2016-04-01
Many river basis around the world are rapidly changing together with societal development. Such developments may involve changes in land use, which in turn affect the surrounding environment in various ways. Since the start of industrialisation, the urban areas have extended worldwide. Urbanization can influence hydrological processes by decreasing evapotranspiration, infiltration and groundwater recharge as well as increasing runoff and overland flow. It is therefore of uttermost importance to understand the relationship between land use and hydrology. Although several studies have been investigating the impacts of urbanization on streamflow over the last decades, less is known on how urbanization affects hydrological processes in peri-urban areas, characterized by a complex mosaic of different land uses. This study aimed to model the impact of land use changes, specifically urbanization and commercial forest plantation, on the hydrological responses of the small Ribeira dos Covões peri-urban catchment (6,2 km2) located in central Portugal. The catchment has undergone rapid land use changes between 1958 and 2012 associated with the conversion of agricultural fields (cover area decreased from 48% to 4%) into woodland and urban areas, which increased from 44% to 56% and from 8% to 40%, respectively. For the study, the fully-distributed, physically-based modelling system MIKE SHE was used. The model was designed to examine both how past land use changes might have affected the streamflow and to investigate the impacts on hydrology of possible future scenarios, including a 50 %, 60 % and 70 % urban cover. To this end, a variety of data including daily rainfall since 1958 and forward, daily potential evapotranspiration from 2009 to 2013, monthly temperature averages from 1971 to 2013, land use for the years 1958, 1973, 1979, 1990, 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2012, streamflow from the hydrological years 2008 to 2013, catchment topography and soil types were used. The model
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Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models
Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah
2016-04-01
Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to
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Land Sensitivity Analysis of Degradation using MEDALUS model: Case Study of Deliblato Sands, Serbia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kadović Ratko
2016-12-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the assessment of sensitivity to land degradation of Deliblato sands (the northern part of Serbia, as a special nature reserve. Sandy soils of Deliblato sands are highly sensitive to degradation (given their fragility, while the system of land use is regulated according to the law, consisting of three zones under protection. Based on the MEDALUS approach and the characteristics of the study area, four main factors were considered for evaluation: soil, climate, vegetation and management. Several indicators affecting the quality of each factor were identified. Each indicator was quantified according to its quality and given a weighting of between 1.0 and 2.0. ArcGIS 9 was utilized to analyze and prepare the layers of quality maps, using the geometric mean to integrate the individual indicator map. In turn, the geometric mean of all four quality indices was used to generate sensitivity of land degradation status map. Results showed that 56.26% of the area is classified as critical; 43.18% as fragile; 0.55% as potentially affected and 0.01% as not affected by degradation. The values of vegetation quality index, expressed as coverage, diversity of vegetation functions and management policy during the protection regime are clearly represented through correlation coefficient (0.87 and 0.47.
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Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
2011-12-01
The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI
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Land Competition and Land-Use Change:
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vongvisouk, Thoumthone
Land competition and land-use changes are taking place in many developing countries as the demand for land increases. These changes are leading to changes in the livelihood conditions of rural people. The Government of Laos (GoL), on the one hand, aims to increase forest protection. On the other...... hand, the government is also working to increase national economic growth by promoting private-sector investment in both agriculture and forest resources – two sectors that compete for the same areas intended for protection. This thesis explores how these contradictory drivers of land-use changes...... software. Quantitative data was compiled in a Microsoft Access database and analyzed in Excel. Land-use and livelihood changes are taking place rapidly in the study sites. Overall, land-use change underwent transformation away from subsistence shifting cultivation to cash crops, intensive agriculture...
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Modeling Soil Moisture in Support of the Revegetation of Military Lands in Arid Regions.
Caldwell, T. G.; McDonald, E. V.; Young, M. H.
2003-12-01
The National Training Center (NTC), the Army's primary mechanized maneuver training facility, covers approximately 2600 km2 within the Mojave Desert in southern California, and is the subject of ongoing studies to support the sustainability of military lands in desert environments. Revegetation of these lands by the Integrated Training Areas Management (ITAM) Program requires the identification of optimum growing conditions to reestablish desert vegetation from seed and seedling, especially with regard to the timing and abundance of plant-available water. Water content, soil water potential, and soil temperature were continuously monitored and used to calibrate the Simultaneous Heat And Water (SHAW) model at 3 re-seeded sites. Modeled irrigation scenarios were used to further evaluate the most effective volume, frequency, and timing of irrigation required to maximize revegetation success and minimize water use. Surface treatments including straw mulch, gravel mulch, soil tackifier and plastic sheet
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Landscape integration and harmonization assessment guide : wind farm siting project on public land
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bouchard, M.A.; Boudart, M.; Arsenault, M.; Lauzon, M.; Lizotte, C.; Munoz, P.; Poirier, C.; Guimont, C.; Sainte-Marie, L.
2005-07-01
The development of a wind farm industry depends greatly on obtaining land use rights. This paper describes a program created by the Quebec Government to make public land available for wind farm construction. In particular, the program allows the government to set aside public land to promote the development of the wind industry in the Gaspe Region and the Matane Regional County Municipality. It also awards land rights for wind farm construction to bidders who have signed wind energy sales contracts with Hydro-Quebec Distribution. The program allows the government to set lease rates for public land used for wind farms based on market rates. This document is a guide used by Quebec's Ministry of Natural Resources to evaluate projects and issue leases for parcels of public land to be used for wind turbine arrays. It identifies major landscape issues associated with wind farms and allows proponents to demonstrate the natural and anthropogenic impacts of a wind farm on the landscape and present mitigative measures to minimize these impacts. This document also identifies the wind farm landscape integration and harmonization principles for public lands in Quebec. It was noted that wind farm projects with 10 MW capacity or less are not subject to guidelines established by the Quebec Ministry of Sustainable Development, Environment and Parks. 23 refs., 2 tabs.
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Sameer Saran,; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.
2007-01-01
Land use/cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division into
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yasmine Megahed
2015-09-01
Full Text Available This study modeled the urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR, one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, using remote sensing data and ancillary data. Three land use land cover (LULC maps (1984, 2003 and 2014 were produced from satellite images by using Support Vector Machines (SVM. Then, land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique that combines binary maps (change/no-change and post classification comparison technique. The spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using selected statistical metrics developed in the FRAGSTATS software. Major transitions to urban were modeled to predict the future scenarios for year 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM embedded in the IDRISI software. The model results, after validation, indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will be urbanized in 2025. The urban areas within a 5-km buffer around: the Great Pyramids, Islamic Cairo and Al-Baron Palace were calculated, highlighting an intense urbanization especially around the Pyramids; 28% in 2014 up to 40% in 2025. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers to adjust and develop new plans to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas and to protect the historical locations.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guang Chen
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model coupled with an Urban Canopy Model (UCM was used for studying urban environmental issues. Because land use data employed in the WRF model do not agree with the current situation around Guangzhou, China, the performance of WRF/UCM with new land-use data extracted from Remote Sensing (RS data was evaluated in early August 2012. Results from simulations reveal that experiments with the extracted data are capable of reasonable reproductions of the majority of the observed temporal characteristics of the 2-m temperature, and can capture the characteristics of Urban Heat Island (UHI. The “UCM_12” simulation, which employed the extracted land-use data with the WRF/UCM model, provided the best reproduction of the 2-m temperature data evolution and the smallest minimum absolute average error when compared with the other two experiments without coupled UCM. The contributions of various factors to the UHI effect were analyzed by comparing the energy equilibrium processes of “UCM_12” in urban and suburban areas. Analysis revealed that energy equilibrium processes with new land use data can explain the diurnal character of the UHI intensity variation. Furthermore, land use data extracted from RS can be used to simulate the UHI.
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Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification
Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon
2018-06-01
Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.
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Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay
Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Quattrochi, Dale; Thom, Ronald; Woodruff, Dana; Judd, Chaeli; Ellis, Jean; Watson, Brian; Rodriquez, Hugo; Johnson, Hoyt
2009-01-01
Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.
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Integrating land cover and terrain characteristics to explain plague ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Literature suggests that higher resolution remote sensing data integrated in Geographic Information System (GIS) can provide greater possibility to refine the analysis of land cover and terrain characteristics for explanation of abundance and distribution of plague hosts and vectors and hence of health risk hazards to ...
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Modeling integrated cellular machinery using hybrid Petri-Boolean networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natalie Berestovsky
Full Text Available The behavior and phenotypic changes of cells are governed by a cellular circuitry that represents a set of biochemical reactions. Based on biological functions, this circuitry is divided into three types of networks, each encoding for a major biological process: signal transduction, transcription regulation, and metabolism. This division has generally enabled taming computational complexity dealing with the entire system, allowed for using modeling techniques that are specific to each of the components, and achieved separation of the different time scales at which reactions in each of the three networks occur. Nonetheless, with this division comes loss of information and power needed to elucidate certain cellular phenomena. Within the cell, these three types of networks work in tandem, and each produces signals and/or substances that are used by the others to process information and operate normally. Therefore, computational techniques for modeling integrated cellular machinery are needed. In this work, we propose an integrated hybrid model (IHM that combines Petri nets and Boolean networks to model integrated cellular networks. Coupled with a stochastic simulation mechanism, the model simulates the dynamics of the integrated network, and can be perturbed to generate testable hypotheses. Our model is qualitative and is mostly built upon knowledge from the literature and requires fine-tuning of very few parameters. We validated our model on two systems: the transcriptional regulation of glucose metabolism in human cells, and cellular osmoregulation in S. cerevisiae. The model produced results that are in very good agreement with experimental data, and produces valid hypotheses. The abstract nature of our model and the ease of its construction makes it a very good candidate for modeling integrated networks from qualitative data. The results it produces can guide the practitioner to zoom into components and interconnections and investigate them